In this the sixth episode of A View from Afar for 2023 political scientist Dr Paul G. Buchanan and Selwyn Manning present a two-part episode to analyse what to make of New Zealand Prime Minister, Chris Hipkins’ bilateral meetings with People’s Republic of China’s President Xi JinPing and other leaders of the PRC.

In part one, Paul and Selwyn also consider how the PRC-NZ trade relationship is seen in the eyes of New Zealand’s security partners.

Then, in the second half of today’s podcast, Paul and Selwyn analyse the most recent events in Russia – events that have taken shape since Wagner Commander Yevgeny Prigozhin’s pronounced intent to mobilise his mercenaries against the Russian Federation’s top two military heads, and, while doing so, pronounced that the Kremlin’s decision to invade Ukraine was based on falsehoods.

What should we expect next? What is the real state of Putinism? What do the political and power elites in Russia make of President Vladimir Putin’s handling of the matter?

Weeks prior to this event happening inside Russia, Paul and Selwyn analysed the question: How stable is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hold on power? It’s a question that all those who watch Russian affairs have now been confronted with.

In this episode Paul and Selwyn unpack the complexity, look at what has changed as opposed to what has been said.

INTERACTION WHILE LIVE:

Paul and Selwyn encourage their live audience to interact while they are live with questions and comments.

To interact during the live recordings of this podcast, go to Youtube.com/c/EveningReport/

Remember to subscribe to the channel.

For the on-demand audience, you can also keep the conversation going on this debate by clicking on one of the social media channels below:

• Youtube.com/c/EveningReport/
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RECOGNITION: The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication. Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category.

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A View from Afar – In this podcast, political scientist Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning examine political events taking shape in South America.

In particular, Buchanan and Manning detail how there is a presidential run-off election in Colombia this Saturday and examine the outcomes of recent elections in Chile, Nicaragua, Honduras and Peru.

Paul takes us through the political landscape and highlights what this means for populism, left-right ideologies and for the South American continent and its respective political partners.

For example; in this episode Buchanan and Manning examine the so-called Pink Tide of (supposed) indigenous socialism started by Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales – and what relevancy this has had with regard to the Summit of Americas.

And, with respect to the Summit of Americas, this event is used as a test of how far the United States has fallen as a global leader.

QUESTIONS:
What is the latest emerging from the political hot-bed of South America?
What are the political trends there with populism, pragmatism, and left-right ideologies?
Why has the Summit of Americas been regarded as a fiasco and how does this impact on the United States’ reputation?

You can comment on this debate by clicking on one of these social media channels and interacting in the social media’s comment area. Here are the links:

• Facebook.com/selwyn.manning
• Youtube
• Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning

If you miss the LIVE Episode, you can see it as video-on-demand, and earlier episodes too, by checking out EveningReport.nz or, subscribe to the Evening Report podcast here.

The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top  Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication.

Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category. You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

By RNZ Pacific

Indonesia will use a landmark business and trade exposition next week in New Zealand to launch a fresh diplomatic push in the Pacific, as the Southeast Asian nation continues to face regional scrutiny over alleged human rights abuses in West Papua.

The Pacific Exposition, which will take place in Auckland from July 11-14, is expected to bring together the foreign ministers of Indonesia, New Zealand and Australia, as well as senior government officials from across Polynesia and Melanesia. A bilateral agreement is to be signed with the Cook Islands at the same time.

The event is the latest foray in a determined diplomatic outreach in the Pacific region that Indonesia’s government of Joko Widodo has overseen in the past few years.

READ MORE: Indonesia’s political system has ‘failed’ its minorities – like West Papuans

Jakarta has made no bones about its aim of greater connectivity with a region that has been critical of Indonesian administration of restive Papua. The Auckland expo is the strongest sign yet of Indonesia’s intent.

Pitched as a trade, investment and tourism forum, it will involve dozens of government and private sector representatives from several Pacific Island countries, with most of their expenses paid for by the Indonesian government.

“The exposition is also the first step towards connecting goods and people of the Pacific and Southeast Asia,” reads a flier for the event.

Vanuatu refuses invite
Indonesian embassy officials — who in April quietly toured several Pacific nations to drum up support for the forum — said it has been well-received across the region. Still, according to one person who has advised embassy officials, Vanuatu’s government has refused to attend, the only Pacific nation approached to do so.

The person, who requested anonymity because they were not authorised to discuss the matter, said Indonesia also hoped to establish a trade “hub” in one Pacific Island country which it could use to facilitate the flow of goods throughout the region.

Although Indonesian embassy officials stressed that the event was apolitical and trade-focused, they said they were worried it would be protested by activists and advocates critical of Indonesia’s handling of human rights in Papua. Local government officials from Papua and West Papua will be in attendance and stalls promoting investment in the two provinces will be set up as part of the trade show.

It comes as Papua has reentered the spotlight, after an escalating war between the West Papua Liberation Army and Indonesia’s military forces since December sent the Central Highlands region into chaos.

Rights groups estimate tens of thousands have been displaced by the violence — which was sparked in part by the massacre of at least 16 Indonesian construction workers by the Liberation Army in Nduga regency. Disputed accounts from military forces and rebel fighters indicate dozens on both sides have been killed in ongoing skirmishes.

High level attendance
New Zealand’s Foreign Minister Winston Peters, who is expected to attend the expo alongside his Australian counterpart Marise Payne, last month said he would raise concerns over human rights abuses in West Papua with Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi.

It is unclear whether talks would take place during the exposition, and the offices of Peters and Payne did not respond to emailed questions.

Senior Indonesian cabinet members have in recent months openly talked about influencing the Pacific Islands into supporting its claims over Papua.

In September, local media reported Indonesia’s top security minister, Wiranto, as proposing $US4 million in funding toward convincing South Pacific nations that Jakarta was promoting development in Papua. He also invited the leaders of Vanuatu and Nauru to see the positive work in Papua for themselves. Neither took up his offer.

Marsudi, the Foreign Minister, recently said her country considers the Pacific Islands as “family”, noting that technical cooperation and capacity building with regional countries will grow significantly in the coming years.

Indonesia’s pitch
Despite their strong ties with New Zealand, Niue and the Cook Islands have been in Indonesia’s sights and bilateral relations are expected to open for the first time in the coming weeks. In March, while pitching the opening of ties to Indonesia’s House of Representatives, Marsudi said the two countries did not support “separatism” in Papua.

Cook Islands Prime Minister Henry Puna will be attending the exposition next week — the only head of state to do so — and an official with his office said a cooperation agreement would be signed on July 12 in Rarotonga. Niue Premier Sir Toke Talagi was also slated to attend the event and sign a similar agreement but illness has reportedly expected to prevent him from attending.

Among those attending will be New Zealand Tourism Minister Kelvin Davis and Maori Development Minister, Nanaia Mahuta. According to a draft agenda of the event, Tonga’s Deputy Prime Minister, Semisi Lafu Kioa Sika is also expected to attend. Tonga’s Prime Minister Akilisi Pohiva is a vocal supporter of West Papuan self-determination aims. His government advocates for the re-listing of West Papua on the agenda of the UN Decolonisation Committee so that there is UN oversight over the human rights of West Papuans.

Vanuatu is preparing a UN resolution along these lines, but will be hard pushed to gain majority support in the General Assembly, given Indonesia’s growing influence.

The appearance of high level officials will be a boon for Indonesia’s investment pitch to the Pacific, a region where strategic competition between western powers and China has overshadowed Indonesia’s growing economy and regional leadership ambitions.

A western diplomatic source who spoke on condition of anonymity said Indonesia had “relentlessly pursued” Pacific Island nations into attending the event, adding that its no-expenses-spared policy of providing travel and accomodation costs to delegates had likely encouraged many to attend.

This article is published under the Pacific Media Centre’s content partnership with Radio New Zealand.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

News reports on Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s quick trip to China yesterday would suggest that it’s all been a triumph, and the New Zealand-China relationship is in good health. Digging a bit deeper, however, shows that things are much less rosy than some are letting on.

There’s no doubt that Ardern’s trip was a success. It was set up as a symbolic and straightforward whirlwind diplomatic excursion from which no great substance was expected to emerge. Instead, it allowed the Government to reach out to both the Chinese Government as well as the New Zealand public and say “everything is fine”. This much has all been achieved: mission accomplished.

But the bar was set quite low. As Audrey Young says today, “It was a mission made for success, the more so because it was only one day. It sent the clear signal to the Chinese leadership that Ardern really, really wanted to get there” – see: Was Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s 24 hours in China worth it?.

Young draws attention to the effort that Ardern went to in order to impress the Chinese: “That fact that Ardern brought partner Clarke Gayford with her – the first time they have left New Zealand together without baby Neve – was an added level of commitment when such gestures carry meaning.”

Like other political journalists, Young pronounces the PM’s trip a success: “Having endured a winter of discontent from China over irritants last year, there appears to be a fresh commitment from both sides for a new phase of growth… So was it worth it, just for one day? Undoubtedly.”

Similarly, Newshub political editor Tova O’Brien says Ardern made a big impact, which is especially notable given she was only there for less than a day: “She was originally supposed to be here for a week, but I think she’s achieved in the 12 hours that she was on the ground in Beijing what she could have with that original itinerary” – see: Jacinda Ardern’s China trip ‘quality over quantity’.

But clearly, not everything is fine. The whole trip had been delayed for many months because Beijing was angry and upset with Wellington. A number of opaque but highly significant messages had been sent to New Zealand over this. While some trade and diplomatic cheerleaders, as well as the Government, have attempted to present it as otherwise, Wellington insiders have been adamant that the relationship was highly strained.

This meant that Ardern had to plan her trip quickly when the Chinese Government were suddenly open to a visit in the wake of the Christchurch terrorist attacks. And despite the Prime Minister’s presence being required in this country at the moment, she decided it was worth making the dash in order to try to seize back the narrative over the relationship.

These issues were covered well by Barry Soper, prior to the Ardern’s departure for China, with him explaining that it would be naïve to disregard the signs of Chinese unhappiness – see: What Jacinda Ardern’s trip to China will achieve.

Here’s Soper’s key point: “The delay in Jacinda Ardern taking up her withheld invitation to visit the Chinese capital and the delay in the Chinese tourism launch in Wellington, was more than just scheduling. To even publicly suggest that is in itself seen here as insulting, as though the Chinese, meticulous when it comes to planning, are somehow incompetent when it comes to following through. The Chinese were sending us a message and we should have taken it on the diplomatic chin.”

Soper also explains that although the visit didn’t have many tangible outcomes, it was symbolically important: “The meeting in the Chinese capital today, on a trip that’ll see the Prime Minister in the air for longer than she’ll be on the ground, won’t achieve much in terms delivering the goods which are a given anyway, but it’s the symbolism that counts. And like all damaged friendships, meeting the aggrieved on their home turf, is a start.”

But in a subsequent column today, Soper, laments the “meaningless” signing ceremony that took place between the two governments, describing it as “the obligatory signing of documents that are always brought out on these occasions to at least make it look as though we’re making progress” – see: Bewildered in Beijing – Jacinda Ardern’s personal charm eases anxiety in China.

He also draws attention to the major discussion topic between the two governments: Huawei, and President Xi Jinping’s very pointed comment that “our two sides must trust each other”. Soper points out that “when it all comes down to it, distrust on our side of Huawei is what it’s all about and of course the Chinese know it.”

The notion that the decision-making process about the Huawei “ban” is made entirely by the GCSB officials without any influence from the politicians or Five Eyes partners was pushed strongly by Ardern in her meetings with the Chinese politicians.

But according to Soper, such an idea would be dismissed by the Chinese: “To the Communist leaders it’s unthinkable that an arm of the government, and not just any arm, its leading spy arm, makes decisions independent of the politicians. And of course the Chinese are right. A spy agency taking a decision which could have a significant impact on the economy and end up affecting the wellbeing of the very people this government claims it cares more about than anything else, is unthinkable, not just to the Communists but to most people who believe it’s a government’s job to govern.”

The PM’s lines on Huawei are also examined today by Richard Harman in his post-trip evaluation, saying that “she repeats a sort of mantra that the decision is for the GCSB alone under the Telecommunications Interceptions and Capability legislation. This, however, glosses over the opportunity that the GCSB has under the legislation to refer the decision to their Minister (Andrew Little) which means that the whole issue has the potential to become political” – see: China: it’s a matter of trust.

Although Harman sees the trip as a success, he also emphasises the Chinese President’s comments about “trust” being a pointed statement. And he identifies hurdles in Ardern’s search for an upgrade of the free trade agreement with China: “China is said to be wanting more access for investment in New Zealand. That will be difficult for the current coalition government to agree to. Asked about it at her press conference, her reply was opaque.”

And as an indication of how the China-NZ relationship is still strained, Harman relays: “there was no joint press conferences with either the Premier and the President which foreign journalists said China usually agrees to with particular friends.”

In his pre-trip analysis of Ardern’s tasks in Beijing, Harman argued that Ardern is now re-asserting herself over Winston Peters on this crucial foreign affairs area. Previously the foreign minister had been pushing New Zealand much closer diplomatically and strategically towards the United States, and was more critical of China and its trade and military expansionism. Ardern, in contrast, is now re-embracing China, toning down criticisms, and displaying more enthusiasm for that country’s much-vaunted Belt and Road initiative – see: Ardern in China: the big test.

On the issue of whether the New Zealand Government is being pressured by Five Eyes concerns about Huawei, Stacey Kirk asserts that “it’s an entirely domestic decision” – see: Rushed but not hurried: Jacinda Ardern makes most of single-day visit to China.

In this article, Kirk also puts forward what is essentially the official line on China-NZ relations and Ardern’s trip, lamenting the “the overblown angst at the state of the relationship emanating from some commentators a few months ago”, and she suggests that New Zealand’s changing relationship with China is simply due to other factors in the global environment, such as the growing US-China rivalry.

In terms of the Beijing trip, Kirk argues that Ardern has gone there, rather heroically, to “look for new ways to strengthen the relationship, but explain New Zealand’s position on matters of concern, and respectfully, not give an inch.” In conclusion, Kirk argues that New Zealand’s reputation for foreign policy independence has been reinforced by the PM’s trip: “On that, Ardern left little doubt.”

Indeed, Kirk praises Ardern for winning some tangible outcomes from the trip, even if they are “far harder to measure in terms of the deals signed and pretty words”. One of the biggest achievements for Ardern, according to Kirk, is that “Ardern’s proactive diplomacy” has ensured that when the final decision against Huawei is made by the Government, “it will have hopefully blunted the delivery” of China’s economic repercussions.

But just in case the public has any unreasonable expectations that NZ-China relations have been fixed, Kirk insists that “No-one expected Rome to be built in a day”, and that it would be unrealistic to “expect a return to the Halcyon days” of 2008 when the free trade agreement was signed.

The other major question about Ardern’s visit has been whether she would make a stand behalf of the Uighur Muslims who are being persecuted in the Xinjiang region of China. There has been pressure on Ardern to both speak out and to keep quiet, and this is best covered by Zane Small’s Jacinda Ardern’s balancing act: Appeasing China while standing up for Muslims.

Finally, for an indication of the strained relationship that this Government has with China, Newshub’s Tova O’Brien has been researching how many official government trips have been taken by the Labour-led Government compared to the previous National Government – see: Sharp decline in official trips to China since Labour took power.

This week New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern concluded her first bilateral with China’s two top leaders President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang and ended with clear signals the two countries are poised to build on the $30billion two-way trade relationship.

But there was more to this bilateral meeting than simply New Zealand – a comparatively small South Pacific economy – solidifying a progressive trade relationship with a global economic superpower. There were significant signals given by both state leaders involving multilateralism and a vision for a non-fossil-fuel future.

For more on this, listen to Radio New Zealand’s The Panel where Selwyn Manning joined Verity Johnson and Wallace Chapman to discuss the NZ-PRC bilateral (On fossil fuels + NZ-PRC’s Relationship )

***

As Ardern said: “We also discussed our shared interest in strengthening the international rules-based order and on climate change, as an issue of global importance.” As such, both New Zealand and the People’s Republic of China indicated significant stances in foreign policy terms.

Firstly, the reference to “international rules-based order” appears a signal that New Zealand Government would support China in principle should it seek recourse through World Trade Organisation rules when countering any escalation of the United States/China trade war. The WTO, and other multilateral bodies such as the United Nations and the International Criminal Court, are central to New Zealand’s independent foreign policy. There’s consistency here. New Zealand simply cannot support the alternative, unilateralism, even when disestablishment threats against multilateral bodies are being pitched by New Zealand’s most significant security partner, the United States.

This is a diplomatic delicacy, a courageous statement, that Ardern was willing to deliver.

On numerous occasions this year United States’ President Donald Trump warned that his administration would abandon the WTO should it not reform and emerge with a trade-rules framework that embraces US trade interests. Trump’s threats also signalled how his Administration would track further toward isolationist-unilateralism should China object to any abuses to WTO rules and international trade law.

You can expect that the US Embassy was busy overnight filing its briefing to Washington DC.

Secondly, China included a gutsy clause in the NZ-China Joint Climate Change Statement that was issued by both Premier Li and Prime Minister Ardern after their meeting.

The PRC and NZ stated: “Both sides recognise the importance of the reform of fossil fuel subsidies, which will bring both economic and environmental benefits, thereby supporting their shared global commitment to sustainable development.”

The idea of abandoning fossil fuel subsidies was first advanced by Jacinda Ardern at her first APEC leaders’ summit shortly after becoming prime minister. There, at APEC, she argued on a panel consisting of herself and the vice chair of Exxon Mobil that fossil fuel subsidies ought to be abandoned – that governments should cease subsidising fossil fuel industries and channel their economies toward developing a future free of fossil fuel carbon emissions.

Clearly, the PRC heard her message and was ready to signal support for it as an ideal. This is a win for Ardern. It is also a respectful acknowledgement that the Asia Pacific’s economic superpower rates her as a significant leader on the global stage.

Additionally, the clause also indicates China – in a week where reliable PMI figures showed it in a very favourable space – that it is confident that its future lies less with the old technologies that assisted the development of today’s western economies and more with the new-tech solutions to global economic development.

The USA will be aware that this move signals that China sees itself as more advanced in the area of AI, machine learning, alternative energy transportation and development than its European and United States counterparts.

Ardern has demonstrated how important it is to meet with significant powers face to face. At such bilaterals, she can offer respect and determination while her counterparts observe her honest, trustworthy, progressive no-nonsense leadership in action.

New Zealand will be the beneficiary of this approach: Ardern said: “I also raised with President Xi the importance New Zealand places on upgrading and modernising our Free Trade Agreement with China – an ambition that he shared.”

Both states have agreed to progress our trade relationship well beyond the current record levels of two-way trade (currently at $30b per annum).

With Premier Li, Ardern said: “We discussed the FTA upgrade, and agreed to hold the next round of negotiations soon and to make joint efforts towards reaching an agreement as soon as possible.

“We also discussed China’s Belt and Road Initiative, noting that the Minister for Trade and Export Growth, David Parker, would lead a business delegation to the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing in April. This will help identify opportunities for mutually beneficial and transparent cooperation so we can complete a work plan as soon as possible.

“I reiterated to Premier Li that New Zealand welcomes all high quality foreign investment that will bring productive economic growth to our country.”

This latter point deserves some caution. China has expressed interest in furthering infrastructure investment within New Zealand – including investments that could be argued are contrary to New Zealand’s strategic interests, into the dairy and primary diversification sectors. While any New Zealand Government ought to proceed with caution here, if our diplomatic trade-negotiation team is buoyed by the country’s new leadership style, then perhaps mutual beneficial ventures can advance beyond a Joint Climate Change Statement.

PS: While in Beijing, the Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern also invited President Xi for a State visit to New Zealand as part of New Zealand’s hosting of APEC in 2021.

Pacific Media Centre Newsdesk

Chinese President Xi Jinping has met Papua New Guinea Prime Minister Peter O’Neill in Beijing, pledging to work with the country to push the bilateral relations to a new level.

Xi said Papua New Guinea is a country with significant influence in the Pacific island region, reports CCTV+ News.

Since the two countries established diplomatic ties 42 years ago, the bilateral relations have achieved historic development, Xi said.

READ MORE: Chinese Pacific presence improves Australian aid

The development of bilateral relations had entered a fast track, and political mutual trust and mutually beneficial cooperation had both reached a new level in history since the establishment of a strategic partnership between the two countries in 2014, he said.

China appreciated Papua New Guinea’s resolute adherence to the one-China policy, Xi said.

China was willing to work with Papua New Guinea to strengthen communication and deepen cooperation, expand exchanges and push bilateral relations to a new level.

O’Neill also met with the Premier Li Keqiang when they discussed issues of mutual interest between the two countries, including shared development interests, infrastructure delivery and the hosting of Asia Pacific Economic Forum (APEC) 2018 due in Port Moresby in November.

‘Strong friendship’
“There is a strong friendship between our governments, both through our officials and high-level interaction,” O’Neill said, reports EMTV News.

“We intend to keep taking this friendship to an even higher level, and there are many outcomes we look to achieve on this visit.

“My last state visit to China was in 2016, and this resulted in seven major agreements in development projects, investment and trade.

“A number of other infrastructure projects have been identified since then are in the process of being delivered.

“These include the rehabilitation of the Poreporena Freeway, the construction of the Boulevard to Parliament, and the upgrade of the International Convention Centre.

“Each of these projects is a gift of the people of China, and are demonstrations of warm relationship between our countries.

“The International Convention Centre has already hosted many APEC meetings, and now it has been upgraded for the APEC Leaders’ Week.

Buses for APEC
China is also providing a number of vehicles, including buses, that will be used in APEC motorcades.

APEC is based on enhancing partnerships, and the partnership we have with China in the delivery of APEC is most appreciated.”

The Pacific Media Centre has a content sharing arrangement with EMTV News.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz