30 April 1975. Saigon Fell, Vietnam Rose. The story of Vietnam after the US fled the country is not a fairy tale, it is not a one-dimensional parable of resurrection, of liberation from oppression, of joy for all — but there is a great deal to celebrate.

After over a century of brutal colonial oppression by the French, the Japanese, and the Americans and their various minions, the people of Vietnam won victory in one of the great liberation struggles of history.

It became a source of inspiration and of hope for millions of people oppressed by imperial powers in Central & South America, Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Eastern Europe.

Civil war – a war among several
The civil war in Vietnam, coterminous with the war against the Western powers, pitted communists and anti-communists in a long and pitiless struggle.

Within that were various strands — North versus South, southern communists and nationalists against pro-Western forces, and so on. As various political economists have pointed out, all wars are in some way class wars too — pitting the elites against ordinary people.

As has happened repeatedly throughout history, once one or more great power becomes involved in a civil war it is subsumed within that colonial war. The South’s President Ngô Đình Diệm, for example, was assassinated on orders of the Americans.

By 1969, US aid accounted for 80 percent of South Vietnam’s government budget; they effectively owned the South and literally called the shots.

US punishes its victims
This month, 50 years after the Vietnamese achieved independence from their colonial overlords, US President Donald Trump declared April 2 “Liberation Day” and imposed some of the heaviest tariffs on Vietnam because they didn’t buy enough US goods!

As economist Joseph Stiglitz pointed out, they don’t yet have enough aggregate demand for the kind of goods the US produces. That might have something to do with the decades it has taken to rebuild their lives and economy from the Armageddon inflicted on them by the US, Australia, New Zealand and other unindicted war criminals.

Straight after they fled, the US declared themselves the victims of the Vietnamese and imposed punitive sanctions on liberated Vietnam for decades — punishing their victims.

Under Gerald Ford (1974–1977), Jimmy Carter (1977–1981), Ronald Reagan (1981–1989), George H.W. Bush (1989–1993) right up to Bill Clinton (1993–2001), the US enforced the Trading with the Enemy Act (TWEA) of 1917.

The US froze the assets of Vietnam at the very time it was trying to recover from the wholesale devastation of the country.

Tens of millions of much-needed dollars were captured in US banks, enforced by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The US also took advantage of its muscle to veto IMF and World Bank loans to Vietnam.

Countries like Australia and New Zealand, to their eternal shame, took part in both the war, the war crimes, and imposing sanctions and other punitive measures subsequently.

The ‘Boat People’ refugee crisis
While millions celebrated the victory in 1975, millions of others were fearful. The period of national unification and economic recovery was painful, typically repressive — when one militarised regime replaces another.

This triggered flight: firstly among urban elites — military officers, government workers, and professionals who were most closely-linked to the US-run regime.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

By Laraswati Ariadne Anwar in Suva

The Pacific Island countries are Indonesia’s neighbours. However, so far they are not very familiar to the ears of the Indonesian people.

One example is Fiji, the largest country in the Pacific Islands. This country, which consists of 330 islands and a population of 924,000 people, has actually had relations with Indonesia for 50 years.

In the context of regional geopolitics, Fiji is the anchor of Indonesian diplomacy in the Pacific.

Fiji is known as a gateway to the Pacific. This status has been held for centuries because, as the largest country and with the largest port, practically all commodities entering the Pacific Islands must go through Fiji.

Along with Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, and the Front de Libération Nationale Kanak et Socialiste (FLNKS) of New Caledonia, Fiji forms the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG).

Indonesia now has the status of a associate member of the MSG, or one level higher than an observer.

For Indonesia, this closeness to the MSG is important because it is related to affirming Indonesia’s sovereignty.

Human rights violations
The MSG is very critical in monitoring the handling of human rights violations that occur in Papua. In terms of sovereignty, the MSG acknowledges Indonesia’s sovereignty as recorded in the Charter of the United Nations.

The academic community in Fiji is also highlighting human rights violations in Papua. As a Melanesian nation, the Fijian people sympathise with the Papuan community.

In Fiji, some individuals hold anti-Indonesian sentiment and support pro-independence movements in Papua. In several civil society organisations in Suva, the capital of Fiji, the Morning Star flag of West Papuan independence is also raised in solidarity.

Even so, Fijian academics realise that they lack context in examining Indonesian problems. This emerged in a talanoa or focused discussion with representatives of universities and Fiji’s mainstream media with a media delegation from Indonesia. The event was organised by the Indonesian Embassy in Suva.

Academics say that reading sources about Indonesia generally come from 50 years ago, causing them to have a limited understanding of developments in Indonesia. When examined, Indonesian journalists also found that they themselves lacked material about the Pacific Islands.

Both the Fiji and Indonesian groups realise that the information they receive about each other mainly comes from Western media. In practice, there is scepticism about coverage crafted according to a Western perspective.

“There must be open and meaningful dialogue between the people of Fiji and Indonesia in order to break down prejudices and provide space for contextual critical review into diplomatic relations between the two countries,” said Associate Professor Shailendra Singh, a former journalist who is now head of the journalism programme at the University of the South Pacific (USP). He was also chair of the 2024 Pacific International Media Conference Committee which was attended by the Indonesian delegation.

‘Prejudice’ towards Indonesia
According to experts in Fiji, the prejudice of the people in that country towards Indonesia is viewed as both a challenge and an opportunity to develop a more quality and substantive relationship.

In that international conference, representatives of mainstream media in the Pacific Islands criticised and expressed their dissatisfaction with donors.

The Pacific Islands are one of the most foreign aid-receiving regions in the world. Fiji is among the top five Pacific countries supported by donors.

Based on the Lowy Institute’s records from Australia as of October 31, 2023, there are 82 donor countries in the Pacific with a total contribution value of US$44 billion. Australia is the number one donor, followed by China.

The United States and New Zealand are also major donors. This situation has an impact on geopolitical competition issues in the region.

Indonesia is on the list of 82 countries, although in terms of the amount of funding contributed, it lags behind countries with advanced economies. Indonesia itself does not take the position to compete in terms of the amount of funds disbursed.

Thus, the Indonesian Ambassador to Fiji, Nauru, Kiribati, and Tuvalu, Dupito Simamora, said that Indonesia was present to bring a new colour.

“We are present to focus on community empowerment and exchange of experiences,” he said.

An example is the empowerment of maritime, capture fisheries, coffee farming, and training for immigration officers. This is more sustainable compared to the continuous provision of funds.

Maintaining ‘consistency’
Along with that, efforts to introduce Indonesia continue to be made, including through arts and culture scholarships, Dharmasiswa (a one-year non-degree scholarship programme offered to foreigners), and visits by journalists to Indonesia. This is done so that the participating Fiji community can experience for themselves the value of Bhinneka Tunggal Ika — the official motto of Indonesia, “Unity in diversity”.

Indonesia has also offered itself to Fiji and the Pacific Islands as a “gateway” to Southeast Asia. Fiji has the world’s best-selling mineral water product, Fiji Water. They are indeed targeting expanding their market to Southeast Asia, which has a population of 500 million people.

The Indonesian Embassy in Suva analysed the working pattern of the BIMP-EAGA, or the East ASEAN economic cooperation involving Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei Darussalam and the Philippines. From there, a model that can be adopted which will be communicated to the MSG and developed according to the needs of the Pacific region.

In the ASEAN High-Level Conference of 2023, Indonesia initiated a development and empowerment cooperation with the South Pacific that was laid out in a memorandum of understanding between ASEAN and the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF).

At the World Water Forum (WWF) 2024 and the Island States Forum (AIS), the South Pacific region is one of the areas highlighted for cooperation. Climate crisis mitigation is a sector that is being developed, one of which is the cultivation of mangrove plants to prevent coastal erosion.

For Indonesia, cooperation with the Pacific is not just diplomacy. Through ASEAN, Indonesia is pushing for the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP). Essentially, the Indo-Pacific region is not an extension of any superpower.

All geopolitical and geo-economic competition in this region must be managed well in order to avoid conflict.

Indigenous perspectives
In the Indo-Pacific region, PIF and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) are important partners for ASEAN. Both are original intergovernmental organisations in the Indo-Pacific, making them vital in promoting a perception of the Indo-Pacific that aligns with the framework and perspective of indigenous populations.

On the other hand, Indonesia’s commitment to the principle of non-alignment was tested. Indonesia, which has a free-active foreign policy policy, emphasises that it is not looking for enemies.

However, can Indonesia guarantee the Pacific Islands that the friendship offered is sincere and will not force them to form camps?

At the same time, the Pacific community is also observing Indonesia’s sincerity in resolving various cases of human rights violations, especially in Papua. An open dialogue on this issue could be evidence of Indonesia’s democratic maturity.

Republished from Kompas in partnership with The University of the South Pacific.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape has backtracked on his comments that PNG had “no right to comment” on human rights abuses in West Papua and has offered a clarification to “clear misconceptions and apprehension”.

Last week, Marape met Indonesian President Joko Widodo at the sidelines of the 43rd ASEAN summit in Jakarta.

According to a statement released by Marape’s office, he revealed that he “abstained” from supporting the West Papuan bid to join the Melanesian Spearhead Group Leaders’ Summit held in Port Vila, Vanuatu, last month because the United Liberation Movement for West Papua (ULMWP) “does not meet the requirements of a fully-fledged sovereign nation”.

However, on Saturday, his office again released a statement, saying that the statement released two days earlier had been “released without consent” and that it “wrongfully” said that he had abstained on the West Papua issue.

“Papua New Guinea never abstained from West Papua matters at the MSG meeting,” he said.

He said PNG “offered solutions that affirmed Indonesian sovereignty over her territories”, adding that “at the same time [PNG] supported the collective MSG position to back the Pacific Islands Forum Resolution of 2019 on United Nations to assess if there are human right abuses in West Papua and Papua provinces of Indonesia.”

Marape said PNG stressed to President Widodo its respect for Indonesian sovereignty and their territorial rights.

Collective Melanesian, Pacific resolutions
“But on matters of human rights, I pointed out the collective Melanesian and Pacific resolutions for the United Nations to be allowed to ascertain [human rights] allegations.”

According to Marape the four MSG leaders have agreed to visit the Indonesian President “at his convenience to discuss this matter”.

“President Widodo responded that the MSG leaders are welcome to meet him and invited them to an October meeting subject on the availability of all leaders. He assured me that all is okay in the two Papuan provinces and invited other PNG leaders to visit these provinces.”

Pacific Media Watch reports that there are actually currently six provinces in the West Papua region, not two, under Indonesia’s divide-and-rule policies.

Since 30 June 2022, the region has been split into the following provinces – Papua (including the capital city of Jayapura), Central Papua, Highland Papua, South Papua, Southwest Papua and West Papua.

Marape has also said that his deputy John Rosso was also expected to lead a delegation to West Papua to “look into matters in respect to human rights”.

Meanwhile, he believes the presence of Indonesia on MSG as an associate member and ULMWP as observer at the MSG “is sufficient for the moment”.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape has told Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo that PNG has no right to criticise Jakarta over what he calls alleged human rights abuses in West Papua.

The two leaders spoke on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Jakarta, reaffirming commitments to maintain dialogue to build stronger and trustful relations that had been made when they met in Port Moresby in July.

Marape told Widodo he had abstained from supporting the West Papuan bid to join the Melanesian Spearhead Group at last month’s meeting in Port Vila because the United Liberation Movement for West Papua (ULMWP) “does not meet the requirements of a fully-fledged sovereign nation”.

“Indonesia’s associate membership status, also as a Melanesian country to the MSG suffices, which cancels out West Papua ULM’s bid,” Marape said, referring to the ULMWP.

He said about the allegations of human rights issues in West Papua, that since PNG had its own challenges, it had no moral grounds to comment on human rights issues outside of its own jurisdiction.

The Indonesian president said PNG deputy Prime Pinister John Rosso would be invited to assess developments taking place in West Papua.

Widodo said Indonesia’s was committed to building trustful and cooperative relations with all Pacific countries and would extend an invitation to their leaders to attend the Archipelagic Island States (AIS) Forum next month in Indonesia.

Meanwhile, on the planned electrification project in PNG’s western provinces, the two leaders pledged to ensure this project would go ahead smoothly and is completed on time.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Timing is everything.

After months of mixed signals, Chris Hipkins will head to China at the end of June.

The New Zealand Prime Minister’s long-awaited visit to Beijing will come shortly before he attends July’s NATO summit in Vilnius.

The careful timing of the PM’s China trip – billed as a trade mission – offers advantages to both the Chinese and New Zealand sides.

For Beijing, the tour will provide a valuable opportunity to influence the leader of a ‘Five Eyes’ country, just before Hipkins takes his seat at the NATO table in Lithuania.

NATO last year launched a new ‘Strategic Concept’ that called out China for its ‘stated ambitions and coercive policies’ and pinpointed the country as a source of ‘systemic challenges’ for the alliance.

For Wellington, the fact that Hipkins is choosing to visit China first – immediately prior to the NATO summit – will be a chance to balance up its recent foreign policy trajectory.

Since Hipkins took over as Prime Minister in January, New Zealand has generally sailed a more hawkish, pro-US course.

The latest instalment in that story came on Friday, when New Zealand signed up to a joint statement with Japan and the other four Five Eyes countries – Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States – this time condemning economic coercion.

Interestingly, the joint declaration did not explicitly name China.

The decision to omit an explicit reference to Beijing – which was the clear and obvious target – might have been a concession to the more sensitive countries in the grouping, especially New Zealand.

After all, the US now no longer shies away from openly criticising China. Traditional diplomatic niceties now frequently seem to be a thing of the past – as demonstrated by the sharp language used recently by Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary.

Whatever the motivations, the wording of the joint statement failed to stave off a typically swift and sharp reaction from the Chinese Embassy in Wellington.

Wang Xiaolong, the Ambassador, published a series of tweets which began: ‘Smearing other countries, either directly or indirectly, won’t whitewash one’s own dismal record on coercion’.

The embassy later issued a statement that said ‘certain countries tend to overstretch or abuse the concept of national security to impose protectionist policies’.

China is still New Zealand’s biggest trading partner by some margin – although the value of New Zealand’s exports to the country largely flatlined over the past year. The total now sits at $NZ21.6 billion.

In the year to March 2023, exports to China made up only 23 per cent of New Zealand’s total exports of goods and services, according to Statistics New Zealand.

During his time in China, Chris Hipkins will be seeking to rekindle and rebuild the trading relationship, especially after Covid-19. Reviving Chinese tourism to New Zealand will be one obvious major focus.

But he can also expect to hear more about China’s frustrations with both the joint declaration on economic coercion and other recent New Zealand foreign policy developments.

A meeting between Hipkins and Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, has yet to be officially confirmed, but – again – this seems to be only a question of timing.

Beijing’s concerns are likely to centre on New Zealand’s potential role in AUKUS, the elite-level military pact that currently involves Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Andrew Little, New Zealand’s defence minister, has said New Zealand is ‘willing to explore’ joining the next stage of AUKUS, which is focused on advanced technologies and is commonly referred to as ‘Pillar II’.

Little has also been at the forefront of other recent decisions that might have irritated China.

These include the recent signing of a new military agreement with Japan and a forthcoming upgrade of New Zealand’s defence ties with Fiji, as well as the boost in New Zealand’s military aid to Ukraine that was announced in early May.

Chris Hipkins and foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta appear to be less enthusiastic about New Zealand joining AUKUS.

After Mahuta visited Beijing herself in March, she said ‘we don’t want to see the militarisation of the Pacific, we’re not part of the AUKUS arrangements’, while Hipkins called the Pillar II issue ‘purely hypothetical’ when questioned in May.

It is difficult to work out the true extent of any divisions on foreign policy within Chris Hipkins’ Labour cabinet.

But recent speeches given a week apart by Little and Mahuta provide a useful case-study.

At the ‘Shangri-La Dialogue’ in Singapore on June 2, Little told fellow defence ministers that New Zealand viewed the global situation with ‘clear eyes’ and would ‘maintain the military capability necessary to contribute to the rules-based international order and protection of our free and democratic way of life’.

By contrast, Nanaia Mahuta’s speech to last week’s conference of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs (NZIIA) in Auckland was more nuanced.

The foreign minister addressed the risks of a ‘more contested environment’, which she listed as ‘poverty levels, indebtedness, conflict, economic exclusion and human rights abuses’.

But Mahuta also told attendees that New Zealand did not cooperate ‘exclusively with those mirroring our views’ and argued ‘binary choices’ were unnecessary.

Perhaps most significantly, Mahuta argued there was no ‘new Cold War’ – a reference that would have been carefully chosen for its likelihood of a positive reception in Beijing.

China regularly warns countries – including New Zealand – against taking what it calls a ‘Cold War mentality’.

If avoiding superpower confrontation is the priority, Hipkins’ visit at the end of June may come at just the right time.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to visit Beijing on June 18, in a much-awaited top-level trip. If it happens, Blinken’s mission will go against the grain of deteriorating US-China relations.

China’s defence minister Li Shangfu declined to meet with his US counterpart, Lloyd Austin, when the pair were in Singapore – a response to the US refusing to lift old sanctions on Li.

Not long after this diplomatic failure, the US released a video of an apparent near-collision of US and Chinese warships in the Taiwan Strait – which in turn came not long after claims of a similar incident involving aircraft.

Last but not least, US officials claimed at the weekend China had been spying on the US for years from Cuba. Unsurprisingly, China has rejected the allegations.

With New Zealand still being China’s best friend in the West, Hipkins has the potential to build on any progress made by Blinken in establishing proverbial ‘guardrails’ to prevent tensions between the superpowers from spiralling out of control.

Ultimately, the most likely role to be played by Chris Hipkins is that of messenger.

NATO leaders will be keen to hear what the New Zealand PM has to say about his China trip when he arrives in Europe in early July.

Chris Hipkins is going to China.

The timing is crucial.

And only time will tell just how successful his trip will be.

Geoffrey Miller is the Democracy Project’s geopolitical analyst and writes on current New Zealand foreign policy and related geopolitical issues. He has lived in Germany and the Middle East and is a learner of Arabic and Russian. Disclosure: Geoffrey attended the Global Media Congress in 2022 as a guest of the organisers, the Emirates News Agency.

What does the Geopolitical balancing that is taking place in the West and South-West Pacific mean for the region and the globe?

Analysis: Paul and Selwyn consider the question from several angles, and provide a context to the headlines that suggest both global powers, the USA and the Peoples Republic of China, are on a collision-course toward conflict.

Paul takes us through the US-PNG and Japan-NZ bilateral security/military agreements as a balancing response to the PRC-Solomons security agreement.

In addition, Paul considers the question: Does the PRC have legitimate interests in the Pacific and, as a great power, should those interests be understood and respected?

Selwyn considers whether China’s ascendancy as a global power threatens the United States’ position as the perceived ‘preeminent defender’ of the Global Order?

And Selwyn raises for debate, highlighting what the two global powers’ messaging was at the Shangri-La security dialogue that took place over last weekend.

Paul then analyses what this all means for the Asia-Pacific region and the world.

Recommended Links:

•  KiwiPolitico.com Ref. https://www.kiwipolitico.com/2023/06/…
•  Shangri-La Security Dialogue; General Li Shangfu, State Councilor; Minister of National Defense, China Ref. https://www.iiss.org/globalassets/med…
•  Shangri-La Security Dialogue; Lloyd J Austin III, Secretary of Defense, US Ref. https://www.iiss.org/globalassets/med…

INTERACTION WHILE LIVE: Paul and Selwyn encourage their live audience to interact while they are live with questions and comments.

They recommended the audience does so via EveningReport’s YouTube channel, as Facebook has undergone significant changes. Here’s the link: Youtube (remember to subscribe to the channel).

For the on-demand audience, you can also keep the conversation going on this debate by clicking on one of the social media channels below:

• Facebook.com/selwyn.manning
• Youtube
• Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning

If you miss the LIVE Episode, you can see it as video-on-demand, and earlier episodes too, by checking out EveningReport.nz or, subscribe to the Evening Report podcast here, also YouTube podcasts and the Podcast hosts below.

RECOGNITION:

The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top  Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication.

Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category. You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

Today, In this episode of A View from Afar political scientist, and former Pentagon analyst, Dr Paul Buchanan, and Selwyn Manning will analyse the question:

What does the Geopolitical balancing that is taking place in the West and South-West Pacific mean for the region and the globe?

Paul and Selwyn will consider this question from several angles, and provide a context to the headlines that suggest both global powers, the USA and the Peoples Republic of China, are on a collision-course toward conflict.

Paul will take us through the US-PNG and Japan-NZ bilateral security/military agreements as a balancing response to the PRC-Solomons security agreement.

In addition, Paul will consider the question: Does the PRC have legitimate interests in the Pacific and, as a great power, should those interests be understood and respected?

Selwyn will consider whether China’s ascendancy as a global power threatens the United States’ position as the ‘preeminent defender’ of the Global Order?

And Selwyn will raise for debate, highlighting what the two global powers’ messaging was at the Shangri-La security dialogue that took place over last weekend.

Paul will then analyse what this all means for the Asia-Pacific region and the world.

INTERACTION WHILE LIVE: Paul and Selwyn encourage their live audience to interact while they are live with questions and comments.

They recommended the audience does so via EveningReport’s YouTube channel, as Facebook has undergone significant changes. Here’s the link: Youtube (remember to subscribe to the channel).

For the on-demand audience, you can also keep the conversation going on this debate by clicking on one of the social media channels below:

• Facebook.com/selwyn.manning
• Youtube
• Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning

If you miss the LIVE Episode, you can see it as video-on-demand, and earlier episodes too, by checking out EveningReport.nz or, subscribe to the Evening Report podcast here, also YouTube podcasts and the Podcast hosts below.

RECOGNITION:

The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top  Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication.

Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category. You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

By Geoffrey Miller
Japan is a country on the move.

Since World War II, Tokyo has largely been happy to outsource its security needs to Washington.

But this is now changing to a more equal partnership.

On Friday, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called his country’s alliance with the United States ‘stronger than ever’.

For his part, US President Joe Biden, who hosted Kishida at the White House, said the United States was ‘fully, thoroughly, completely committed to the alliance’ with Japan.

The words from Kishida and Biden might seem like the usual diplomatic niceties, but behind the smiles from the two leaders was a quantum shift in Tokyo’s foreign policy positioning.

The war’s legacy and subsequent 1947 pacifist constitution help to explain why Japan has until now preferred its military to keep a low profile – a deal which has come at a bargain price.

For decades, Japan’s defence budget has hovered around 1 per cent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), well below the levels of other G7 nations.

Japan has traditionally invested less in its military than even New Zealand – which currently spends around 1.5 per cent of its GDP on its defence force.

But this won’t be the case for much longer.

Under a new security blueprint unveiled by Fumio Kishida’s government in mid-December, Tokyo is pledging to double its defence spending to at least 2 per cent of GDP by 2027.

Over the past fortnight, the Japanese Prime Minister has embarked on something of a sales pitch for the new plans by visiting each of the other six countries in the G7.

The tour wrapped up on Friday when Kishida stopped at the White House to meet with Joe Biden.

Tokyo’s more hawkish turn will be music to Washington’s ears.

The plans see Japan buying up advanced weaponry – including long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles from the US – and spending more on developing hypersonic and cybersecurity technology.

And one does not need to look far to find out why.

Japan’s new National Security Strategy (NSS) openly calls out China, describing Beijing a ‘matter of serious concern for Japan’ and the ‘greatest strategic challenge’ to the country’s security.

The NSS also alleges China is developing its ‘strategic ties’ with Russia and is seeking to ‘challenge the international order’.

While similar characterisations have become commonplace in US security documents, they represent a sea change for the previously pacifist Japan.

Tokyo’s dramatic shifts are likely to have ramifications for New Zealand, which receives a special mention in the companion National Defence Strategy that was also released in December.

The new security documents make clear that Japan expects its own changes will come as part of a team effort by ‘like-minded countries’.

New Zealand is currently undertaking a review of its own defence policy, which was launched following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and after Wellington published an unusually hawkish defence assessment at the end of 2021.

That document called China’s rise the ‘major driver of geopolitical change’ and said Beijing was ‘seeking to reshape the international system’.

The desire for multilateral cooperation with countries such as New Zealand emerged as a major theme in conversations with Japanese diplomats and experts when I visited Tokyo as a guest of Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs just before Christmas.

One foreign ministry official told me he believed 2022 had been a ‘transformative’ year for Japan-New Zealand relations and said New Zealand had ’embraced’ the concept of the ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’.

Asked whether Japan wanted New Zealand to join its side, the diplomat said that decision was up to the New Zealand people – but he believed ‘like-minded countries can make the right choices’.

New Zealand’s strengths in the Pacific are an obvious attraction to Japan as part of the strategy to contain China. The official said Japan was still ‘shocked’ by Beijing’s security deal with Solomon Islands that was signed early in 2022, calling it a ‘big wake-up call’ that reinforced the need for Tokyo to win ‘hearts and minds’ in Pacific countries.

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern visited Japan last April to meet with her counterpart Fumio Kishida on her first foreign trip since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic.

After their meeting, Ardern called Japan ‘one of New Zealand’s closest and most important partners in the Indo-Pacific’. Both countries pledged to step up an existing Japan New Zealand Strategic Cooperative Partnership and signed an agreement to share security-related classified information.

The joint statement referred several times to the need for the Indo-Pacific to remain ‘free and open’ – a phrase squarely aimed at Beijing that was popularised by the late Shinzo Abe, the former Japanese prime minister who was assassinated last July.

Like New Zealand, Japan is highly dependent on trade with China. 23 per cent of Japan’s exports go to China every year, and Japan also relies on China for a quarter of its imports.

For New Zealand, the reliance on China is even greater: 32 per cent of New Zealand’s exports are sent to China annually.

When asked about how the apparent trade vs. security dilemma could be untangled, Japanese observers I spoke with were generally sympathetic to New Zealand’s plight.

One analyst bluntly said there was ‘no answer’ to economic dependence on China and that Japan’s trade diversification efforts were of an ‘incremental’ nature.

Another academic noted similarities between New Zealand’s position and many Southeast Asian countries, which are also heavily reliant on the Chinese market.

Both experts saw the current geopolitical situation as being long-term in nature – akin to the Cold War – and believed the issues would not go away anytime soon.

Is there a third option for New Zealand to avoid heavily aligning itself with one side or the other in the current bout of Great Power competition – and instead play the role of an intermediary between the two camps?

Noting the loss of Sweden and Finland as neutral countries in 2022, the academic said there was certainly ‘value’ in the idea of New Zealand playing the role of go-between – but it would take ‘strong and clever leadership’ to pull it off.

And it would not necessarily be any cheaper: neutral countries such as Finland and Switzerland still maintained sizeable defence budgets throughout the Cold War.

But the academic pointed to Ireland’s role as the architect of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), signed at the height of the Cold War in 1968, showed what could be achieved: ‘New Zealand could have its own moment in history’.

Despite vast differences in size, culture and history, there are similarities between Japan and New Zealand that extend well beyond rugby and earthquakes.

For different reasons, both countries have traditionally paid close attention to nuclear disarmament issues. New Zealand has maintained a nuclear-free policy since 1984.

Tokyo’s decision to take a more realist approach may resonate particularly well with Wellington, which in recent decades has generally tended to tread a more doveish line than other Western countries.

Another Japanese commentator told me he believed New Zealand was a ‘more pacifist country than we are, than we were’.

Change has not come easily to Japan – and the new military and security strategy is not without its critics inside the country.

The massive cost of the arms build-up will come at the cost of matching tax hikes.

Ultimately, Wellington will need to make its own foreign policy decisions, in its own interests.

But whatever the future holds, Japan will be a country for New Zealand to watch.

Geoffrey Miller is the Democracy Project’s geopolitical analyst and writes on current New Zealand foreign policy and related geopolitical issues. He has lived in Germany and the Middle East and is a learner of Arabic and Russian. He is currently working on a PhD on New Zealand’s relations with the Gulf states. Disclosure: Geoffrey Miller visited Tokyo as a guest of Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

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Tamsyn Parker (Herald): KiwiSaver power list: Who’s really managing your money? (paywalled)
Anna Rawhiti-Connell (Spinoff): A dollar each way: the economy in 2023
Rob Stock (Stuff): BNZ has brought back sale targets for frontline staff, four years after they were abandoned
Tom Pullar-Strecker (Stuff): Government says carbon dioxide supplies being rationed and ‘prioritised’
Esther Taunton (Stuff): Supermarkets paying 24% more for fresh produce as suppliers’ costs keep rising
Daniel Dunkely (BusinessDesk): Screen grant review leaves NZ film industry in ‘limbo’ (paywalled)

PARLIAMENT, GOVERNMENT
Max Rashbrooke (Stuff): Is the electorate in the mood for radical changes?
Sasha Borissenko: Now That’s What I Call Legislation Vol. 2 (paywalled)
Bridie Witton (Stuff): David Seymour: A vote for ACT will keep National on the right
Aaron Dahman (Newstalk ZB): Govt forced to spend millions of dollars on empty Ministry of Education building
Michael Neilson (Herald): ‘Don’t give up’: Act MP Toni Severin on her dyslexia and being a politician
Adam Pearse (Herald): Green MP Golriz Ghahraman challenges other parties to empower disabled in Parliament
Steven Cowan: Jacinda Ardern: The victim of “misogynistic attitudes and beliefs”?
Thomas Manch (Stuff): Summer off politics: National MP Simeon Brown’s family-focused summer break

LOCAL GOVERNMENT 
Tom Dillane (Herald): Wayne Brown’s ‘staggering’ $123k legal bill, plus his $5k a week chief of staff
Todd Niall (Stuff): Wayne Brown’s first 100 days: Auckland’s chief grinch or fiscal saviour?
RNZ: Council-managed buses carry National Party advertising
Kim Knight (Herald): How much should Auckland Art Gallery pay for Frida Kahlo, Gilbert & George and more? (paywalled)
Steven Walton (Stuff): Christchurch’s $683m Te Kaha stadium starts to take shape
Tina Law (Stuff): Compost plant not to blame for ‘vile stench’ that blankets suburb, council says

WELLINGTON
Charlie Mitchell (Stuff): Why Wellington should no longer be the capital of New Zealand
Peter Dunne (Stuff): What Wellington needs to do if it wants to be a credible capital
Jonathan Milne (Newsroom): Socks, frocks and saving Wellington from self-indulgence

JUSTICE, POLICE
Janet Wilson (Stuff): New Zealand’s outrageous approach to injustice
Herald Editorial: Wrongful convictions must be compensated (paywalled)
Mike White and Blair Ensor (Stuff): Police officers surprised at appointment of former top cop to new role

HOUSING
Newshub: Election 2023: Political parties called upon to introduce ‘pollution-busting home reno programme’ after election
Torika Tokalau (Stuff): New Zealand’s first multigenerational state homes a Pasifika game-changer
Frances Chin (Stuff): Mana whenua occupiers denounce proposed $350m housing plan
Anne Gibson (Herald): Orewa to Beach Haven: Residents battle against Auckland housing intensification (paywalled)
Geraden Cann (Stuff): No tenants paid in Mauri Ora case involving filthy rental properties
Geraden Cann (Stuff): High house prices resulting in prenups and ‘contracting out’ boom
David Chaston (Interest): We are still a long way from winding back the outrageous gains that began in 2020

ENVIRONMENT
Michael Neilson (Herald): How NZ’s $1.3b climate change fund is being spent on the Pacific, and why advocates are keeping ‘close watch’ (paywalled)
Marc Daalder (Newsroom): In 2023, climate will get political

EDUCATION, CHILD WELFARE
Michael Neilson (Herald): Tertiary fees-free policy: Wealthier students benefit most after four years of scheme
RNZ: Home childcare organisation Porse has nine licences temporarily suspended
Ripu Bhatia (Stuff): Prejudice high on Māori parents’ worry list for their children, survey finds
RNZ: Youth crisis helpline braced for influx of callers anxious about school return

ANIMAL WELFARE
Olivia Caldwell (Stuff): Three rodeo deaths in three days sparks renewed call for a ban
Baz Macdonald (Re:News): Three animals died at NZ rodeo events this summer

FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Fran O’Sullivan (Herald): Big trade agenda for Damien O’Connor at Davos (paywalled)
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): Free Trade Agreement: New Zealand lamb at centre of furore in United Kingdom Parliament
RNZ: Plea for more support for Ukrainians in New Zealand: ‘Most don’t have a home to go back to’
Fran O’Sullivan (Herald): High-profile Russians banned from Auckland Asia-Pacific business meeting (paywalled)
Charlie Gates (Stuff): ‘Thanks for the money, we’re going to rescue some people’: Missing aid worker Andrew Bagshaw caught on film
RNZ: Ukraine conflict: Fellow aid worker keeps faith Andrew Bagshaw will be found alive

HEALTH
Maryana Garcia (Rotorua Daily Post): Te Whatu Ora Lakes spends $41.7m on mental health services in one year
Thomas Cranmer: Covid and our Kiwi Kids – Part 1
Siouxsie Wiles (Stuff): When it comes to Covid, a name can be important
ODT: ‘Scary’: patients turned away
Niva Chittock (RNZ): Gang members block Christchurch Hospital parking, intimidate public
RNZ: Group therapy has high success rate, with services in high demand
Samuel Wat (RNZ): ‘So many obstacles’: Struggles getting mpox vaccine booking
RNZ: $1.4m research grant puts opioid addiction in frame

OTHER
Paula Penfold (Stuff): Abuse of journalists shows how ugly our civil discourse has become
Ben Leahy (Herald): Census collectors to carry panic alarms amid safety fears over anti-government backlash
Natasha Hamilton-Hart (Open Inquiry): Sex, lies and the census
Steve Kilgallon (Stuff): The $1 million library that never really opened… appears to close for good
James Halpin (Stuff): Aviation authority hired second person linked to far-right group Action Zealandia
Steven Joyce (Herald): The job of the Covid inquiry (paywalled)
RNZ: Catholic Church doing opposite of public statements on abuse safeguarding – advocate
Alex Penk: Free speech is increasingly important in our symbolic culture
Jenny Nicholls (Stuff): Tangled copyright law denying public access to works they’ve a right to see
Herald: NZTA receives record number of complaints about potholes damaging cars
Jo Lines-MacKenzie (Stuff): Pothole nation – big fix for pockmarked state highway network
Andrew McRae (RNZ): Returned and Services Association struggling financially as it faces modernising, president says

Analysis by Geoffrey Miller.

New Zealand’s independent foreign policy is back. That’s a key underlying message from Jacinda Ardern’s trip this week to Southeast Asia.

The New Zealand Prime Minister attended the East Asia Summit in Cambodia over the weekend. She will head to Thailand for the APEC leaders’ meeting later in the week.

In between, Ardern is also making a surprise four-day bilateral visit to Vietnam.

As has become customary for much of Ardern’s foreign travel, the Vietnam portion of this week’s trip is being branded as a ‘trade mission’, a strategy deployed in part to deflect potential domestic criticism of the PM for spending too much time on the diplomatic circuit abroad.

Ardern all but admitted in interviews prior to embarking on her Asia trip that her no-show at the COP27 summit in Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh was driven by an unwillingness to spend too much time outside New Zealand.

While it is certainly true that there is a strong trade foundation to New Zealand’s ties with Vietnam – the country is New Zealand’s 14^th biggest export market – there is probably a little more to it than that.

So far in 2022, most of Jacinda Ardern’s international travel has been focused on countries in the Western-led camp that has been vocal in condemning Russia for its war on Ukraine.

In April, Ardern’s first travel outside New Zealand since early 2020 was pointedly to Singapore and Japan – two of the few Asian countries that had sanctioned Russia.

Trips to the United Kingdom, United States (to meet Joe Biden at the White House), Spain (as an invited guest at the NATO summit), Belgium (to sign a free trade deal with the EU) and Australia then followed.

But by mid-year, there seemed to be a realisation inside Ardern’s Labour Government that New Zealand had tacked too far towards the West in the first six months of 2022.

New Zealand’s increasingly pro-Western foreign policy had begun to irk China. The warning signs from Beijing led Ardern to recalibrate in speeches in July and August, in which she emphasised New Zealand’s traditional independent foreign policy and sought to put a little more daylight between Wellington and Washington.

However, these recalibration speeches were themselves delivered to Western audiences in London, Sydney and Auckland.

Until now, the shift had not really been reflected in the Prime Minister’s travel schedule, which in recent months focused on the Pacific and also included a trip to London (for the Queen’s funeral) and New York (for the UN General Assembly).

The return of in-person gatherings for both the East Asia Summit (EAS) and APEC formats is particularly welcome news for New Zealand, which as a small country receives fewer such multilateral opportunities.

Moreover, amidst heightened geopolitical polarisation, the broadly inclusive nature of both the EAS and APEC – which brings together Russia, China, the United States and many smaller members from around the Pacific Rim – is now almost priceless.

And when viewed through a trade lens alone, APEC will give New Zealand’s Prime Minister a particularly invaluable opportunity to develop connections with leaders who otherwise might not receive the attention from Wellington that they deserve.

This is particularly true for Latin America, which is represented at APEC by Chile, Mexico and Peru.

Of the three, Mexico currently holds the greatest significance for New Zealand: trade in both directions is surging. The country now sits comfortably inside New Zealand’s top 30 export markets, in 26^th place.

Ardern has yet to visit Latin America since becoming PM in 2017, although she did hold a sideline meeting with Chilean President Gabriel Boric at the UN General Assembly in September. In June, Ardern also dispatched her education minister, Chris Hipkins, to Chile and Brazil to promote New Zealand’s international education sector which had suffered greatly from border restrictions during the pandemic.

Jacinda Ardern’s international popularity – which has only increased during the Covid-19 era – means that she can easily secure sideline meetings with leaders at bigger gatherings.

Furthermore, the summits in Cambodia and Thailand – and especially the side trip to Vietnam – provide the Prime Minister with her best opportunity yet to learn about the foreign policy stances being taken by non-Western countries.

Vietnam is a case in point.

Hanoi has long maintained friendly ties with Moscow, a friendship built on Russia’s support and solidarity for the like-minded, communist Vietnam during the Cold War.

In 2022, this strong relationship has seen Hanoi refrain from criticising Moscow’s war on Ukraine (at least in public) – and led Vietnam to abstain on key votes in March and October which condemned Russia in the UN General Assembly.

Moreover, Vietnam’s Nguyen Phu Trong – the country’s communist leader – recently chose to visit China for his first foreign trip since 2019.

Trong’s visit to Beijing was the first by a foreign leader since Xi Jinping received a third term at October’s Communist Party Congress. The symbolism and warmth of the trip showed that Vietnam will not be easily swayed by US pressure to throw its lot in with the West, despite the existence of genuine tensions between Hanoi and Beijing over the South China Sea.

As if to avoid any doubt, Trong called Vietnam’s relationship with China his ‘top priority’ while in Beijing and firmly ruled out joining military alliances – a pledge which would have been music to Xi’s ears.

The bonhomie in Beijing represented a setback of sorts for Washington, which had offered a carrot to Hanoi by including it in the US’s new Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) initiative earlier in the year. The IPEF is vague and uninspiring overall, but a focus on ‘supply chain resilience’ is an indication that its main purpose is to be a vehicle that challenges China’s economic dominance.

Still, the IPEF involvement – and Vietnam’s coolness towards Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and new Global Security Initiative (GSI) – shows that Hanoi is likely to continue to forge a foreign policy that walks a tightrope between both Washington and Beijing.

In Vietnam, this strategy is sometimes referred to ‘bamboo diplomacy’ – tough when required, but flexible when needed.

While in Vietnam this week, Jacinda Ardern may want to give some thought to Vietnam’s approach.

After all, there are some remarkable similarities between Vietnam’s bamboo diplomacy and New Zealand’s own ‘independent foreign policy’ positioning that seeks to keep both China – its biggest trading partner by far – and traditional Western partners on side.

New Zealand’s greatest foreign policy challenge is threading this geopolitical needle.

The good news is that other countries in the Indo-Pacific – and further afield – are facing this challenge too.

Jacinda Ardern can learn from them.

Geoffrey Miller is the Democracy Project’s geopolitical analyst and writes on current New Zealand foreign policy and related geopolitical issues. He has lived in Germany and the Middle East and is a learner of Arabic and Russian.

Further reading on international relations and the PM at the East Asia Summit

Claire Trevett (Herald): PM Jacinda Ardern at the East Asia Summit: A call to do more in Myanmar, flags concern about China
Benedict Collins (1News): ‘Sober’ East Asia Summit concludes
Claire Trevett (Herald): The PM’s hustle – Jacinda Ardern’s sharp elbow work to get face time with US President Joe Biden (paywalled)
Thomas Manch (Stuff): Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern ‘optimistic’ as leaders discuss worsening world crises
Jo Moir (Newsroom): No shortage of ‘stains on the region’ at East Asia Summit
Claire Trevett (Herald): PM Jacinda Ardern arrives for East Asia Summit: ‘Storm clouds’ over region
Gyles Beckford (RNZ): Myanmar govt’s executions ‘a stain on region’ – Jacinda Ardern
RNZ: PM Jacinda Ardern hopes to drive regional consensus at Asian summits
1News: Govt announces upgrade to ASEAN trade deal
Amelia Wade (Newshub): Myanmar’s executions ‘a stain on our region’, Jacinda Ardern says, as week of southeast Asian mega meetings begins
Thomas Manch (Stuff): PM Jacinda Ardern sits down with world leaders for East Asia Summit; Putin a no show
Amelia Wade (Newshub): Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern jets off to Southeast Asia, racking up the air miles for summit season
Jamie Gray (Herald): What Xi Jinping’s re-election in China means for NZ Inc (paywalled)
Nicholas Khoo (Stuff): Why NZ’s morality narrative on Ukraine doesn’t work

Other items of interest and importance today

GOVERNMENT AND PARLIAMENT
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): 2023 election: The key parties, latest polling, main issues, cost of living
Audrey Young (Herald): Luxon’s first year as leader: Tackling Ardern and her ‘career politician’ colleagues (paywalled)
Claire Trevett (Herald): Polls deliver cold, hard reality for the Labour Party and Jacinda Ardern – but is Winston Peters benefiting? (paywalled)
Anna Whyte (Stuff): ‘Hell of a rush to get stuff done’: Should elections be held every four years?
Peter Wilson (RNZ): Week in Politics: A poll, a reappointment and an interesting by-election line up
The Standard: Why is Labour such a hard sell now?
Leena Tailor (Women’s Weekly/Herald): From migrant to minister: Priyanca Radhakrishnan’s power move
Steven Cowan: Trickle down feminism
Andrew Kirton (Herald): Speculation begins on the date of the next NZ election (paywalled)
Giles Dexter (RNZ): Under-fire Labour turns sights on bank profits and fuel
Phil Smith (RNZ): Reimagining Parliament
Ellie McKenzie (Transparency International): New Zealand lobbying oversight lacking in comparison to similar countries

THREE WATERS
1News: Three Waters: National’s policy to be revealed closer to election
Thomas Cranmer: The Three Waters select committee reports back
Glenn McConnell (Stuff): Everyone agrees to change Three Waters, but no one agrees what the changes should be
Jonathan Milne (Newsroom): The woman whose impassioned plea won over Three Waters MPs
Shane Reti (Herald): Three Waters legislation may be rammed through under urgency (paywalled)
James Perry (Māori TV): Changes to Three Waters reform but co-governance to stay
Rebecca Howard (BusinessDesk): Mahuta welcomes 3 waters report (paywalled)
Brent Edwards (NBR): Three Waters reform to go through largely unchanged (paywalled)
Adam Pearse (Herald): Three Waters co-governance retained after 88,000 public submissions
RNZ: Three Waters: Government agrees to changes after Select Committee recommendations

ECONOMY, EMPLOYMENT AND INEQUALITY
RNZ: Reserve Bank created ‘perfect storm’ for inequality – Bernard Hickey
Damien Grant (Stuff): Bank profits aren’t the problem, the Reserve Bank is
Herald: Big power companies delivering excess dividends in the billions, new study claims
Luke Malpass (Stuff): Adrian Orr, Grant Robertson, National and the price of money
Bernard Hickey: A post-mortem on an inter-generational and institutional tragedy (paywalled)
Tom Hunt (Stuff): Workers needing food help the new normal as Wellington prices soar
Heather du Plessis-Allan (Herald): Reserve Bank governor needs to wake up to his role (paywalled)
Fran O’Sullivan (Herald): Less fire, more ice-water please, governor (paywalled)
Steven Joyce (Herald): Grant Robertson risks undermining Reserve Bank independence (paywalled)
Eric Crampton (Stuff): We all turn a little bit crazy when prices rise in a crisis
John Roughan (Herald): There’s more to inflation than wages (paywalled)
Hillmarè Schulze (NBR): Māori households are getting poorer despite increased Govt funds (paywalled)
Debbie Ngarewa-Packer (Herald): It’s time to break up the old boys’ network and give land back
Shauni James (Herald): Rotorua Salvation Army Foodbank records 89pc surge in demand ahead
Matt Cowley (Herald): Is the Fair Pay Agreement fair play? (paywalled)
Calida Stuart-Menteath and Hamish McNicol (NBR): Windfall taxing big banks’ profit is not the answer (paywalled)
Andrea Vance (Stuff): Air New Zealand no longer delivers the service it sells, nor can it handle it when things go wrong

HOUSING
John Minto (Daily Blog): Hundreds of millions in state house land sold by Labour in the middle of a housing catastrophe
Catherine Hubbard (Stuff): Motel owners at the coal face of the housing shortage
Sonya Bateson (Herald): Stop the blame game on emergency housing – we need action
Miriam Bell (Stuff): Rent increases are stabilising, but at a high level

HEALTH
Virginia Fallon (Stuff): The whole tooth: Pliers, shame and the biting cost of dental care in New Zealand
Newshub: Dentist visibly emotional as he spells out consequences Kiwis face when they don’t visit dentist
Aaron Dahmen (Herald): ‘We have to do better’ – Government considering paid placements for nursing students
Adam Pearse (Herald): ‘Erosion of investment’: How the latest addition to Te Whatu Ora’s board sees the future of healthcare
Phil Pennington (RNZ): Four major hospital upgrade projects in South Island face uncertainty
RNZ: Emergency department pressures: Te Whatu Ora ‘doing what we can’
Janine Rankin (Stuff): Private hospital theatre promises surgery for more public patients
Samantha Heath (Herald): Aged care in critical need (paywalled)

EDUCATION
Erin Gourley and Gianina Schwanecke (Stuff): Principals warn literacy and numeracy changes could ‘provoke a crisis’
Emma Hatton (Newsroom): Pleas for complete overhaul of teacher aide funding system
Anna Whyte (Stuff): Primary teachers to decide on pay offer, union labels it ‘well short’
Greg Newbold: English literacy essential
Jerry Coyne: Shamanism makes comeback in New Zealand

MEDIA
Colin Peacock (RNZ): Herald’s bid to short-circuit short-termism and tribalism
Hayden Donnell (RNZ): Annoying both sides doesn’t equal getting it right
Steve Braunias (Herald): The Secret Diary of Plunket and Farrier (paywalled)
Grant Duncan: Newshub’s biased poll reporting
Eric Crampton: Watching Mediawatch

CLIMATE
Timothy Welch (The Conversation): Why giving the Commerce Commission the power to set ‘fair’ fuel prices is unfair on NZ’s climate targets
1News: Shaw on $20m climate payout: NZ has ‘duty to support’ Pacific
Rod Oram (Newsroom): NZ absent on COP 27 agriculture day
Hamish McNicol (NBR): Climate reporting and the law of unintended consequences (paywalled)

OTHER
Philip Matthews (Stuff): Jim Anderton: Hero, rebel or both?
Michelle Duff (Stuff): NZ childcare affordability is the worst in the world, Government discovers
Simon Wilson (Herald): Inside the Auckland mayoral race: How did Wayne Brown win so well and Efeso Collins lose so badly? (paywalled)
Deborah Morris (Stuff): Police error sinks Parliament protester’s trespass charge, exposing loophole
Matthew Slaughter (Stuff): Difficult Conversations: Are we becoming reluctant to speak our minds?
Clive Bibby (Kiwiblog): Let’s have a debate based on the facts
Greg Bruce (Herald): Millennials aren’t real. Nor are Boomers, Zoomers or Gen X-ers (paywalled)

Two days after being elected as Prime Minister again in Papua New Guinea, James Marape took his first official trip as the country’s leader while hitting the ground running in groundbreaking clean green energy projects he has been championing over the past two years.

He met with leaders of Fortescue Future Industries (FFI) in Singapore yesterday to progress the talks further.

After numerous questions on the trip to Singapore taken by Marape on Friday afternoon a statement was released about midnight through other social media platforms.

In the morning, the PM’s Department released the statement at 7.30 am after the country became aware of Marape’s trip to Singapore.

The Prime Minister flew to Singapore to continue important trade and investment conversations, including those on Papua LNG, Pasca LNG, Pn’yang LNG and also to get Porgera and Wafi-Golpu sanctioned.

He said from Singapore that FFI had voiced its intention to partner with Papua New Guinea in a big way to harvest clean green energy from both hydro and geothermal sources and to move into solar and wind energy production.

Currently, FFI has identified and set up project sites in Gulf Province for hydro and West New Britain Province for geothermal work and has been working in these areas since the signing of two important agreements since 2021.

Clean green energy way of future
Marape said from Singapore: “With global consciousness of fossil fuel-induced global warming, clean green energy is the way to move into the future and this meeting follows on the head agreement PNG has signed with FFI to progress investment in this energy sector.”

The Prime Minister also visited the PNG High Commission in Singapore with a view to strengthening it further as a trade and investment office while getting the PNG government to increase trade and investment with the ASEAN and APEC countries.

He said: “The Singapore office will be given more support in that context in partnership with Investment Promotion Authority, the Kumul companies, National Fisheries and Forestry authorities, and our Agriculture and Livestock departments so that it coordinates export and trade into the lucrative Asian market of over 2 billion people who need food and energy, and products PNG can mass produce into the future as we are planning under my government.”

Republished with permission.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

A View from Afar – In this podcast, political scientist Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning analyse hostilities and the pathway ahead for Taiwan, China, Asia Pacific nations and the United States of America.

Buchanan and Manning examine why hostilities have intensified, what defence and pre-emptive security moves have been actioned, and what we all should expect next, including the ramifications impacting on Asia Pacific nations’ foreign policies and what the short, medium and long term consequences will be.

The Questions:

What to expect from a deterioration of China / Taiwan relations?

What’s next in the PRC Taiwan stand-off?

What impact will PRC Taiwan hostilities have on the foreign policy positions of Asia Pacific nations?

And is the USA’s Indo-Pacific security/defence realignment a help or a hindrance in the region?

You can comment on this debate by clicking on one of these social media channels and interacting in the social media’s comment area. Here are the links:

• Facebook.com/selwyn.manning
• Youtube
• Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning

If you miss the LIVE Episode, you can see it as video-on-demand, and earlier episodes too, by checking out EveningReport.nz or, subscribe to the Evening Report podcast here.

The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top  Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication.

Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category. You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

A View from Afar – In this podcast, political scientist Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning will analyse hostilities and the pathway ahead for Taiwan, China, Asia Pacific nations and the United States of America.

Buchanan and Manning will examine why hostilities have intensified, what defence and pre-emptive security moves have been actioned, and what we all should expect next including the ramifications impacting on Asia Pacific nations’ foreign policies and what the short, medium and long term consequences will be.

The Questions:

What to expect from a deterioration of China / Taiwan relations?

What’s next in the PRC Taiwan stand-off?

What impact will PRC Taiwan hostilities have on the foreign policy positions of Asia Pacific nations?

And is the USA’s Indo-Pacific security/defence realignment a help or a hindrance in the region?

Join Paul and Selwyn for this LIVE recording of this podcast while they consider these big issues, and remember any comments you make while live can be included in this programme.

You can comment on this debate by clicking on one of these social media channels and interacting in the social media’s comment area. Here are the links:

• Facebook.com/selwyn.manning
• Youtube
• Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning

If you miss the LIVE Episode, you can see it as video-on-demand, and earlier episodes too, by checking out EveningReport.nz or, subscribe to the Evening Report podcast here.

The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top  Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication.

Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category. You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

Independence leader and Nobel laureate José Ramos-Horta has declared victory in Timor-Leste’s presidential election, saying he had secured “overwhelming” support and would now work to foster dialogue and unity.

Data from the country’s election administration body (STAE) with all votes counted showed Ramos-Horta secured a decisive 62 percent win in Tuesday’s ballot, well ahead of his opponent, incumbent President Francisco “Lu Olo” Guterres with 37 percent.

“I have received this mandate from our people, from the nation in an overwhelming demonstration of our people’s commitment to democracy,” Ramos-Horta told reporters in Dili.

The 72-year-old statesman is one of Timor-Leste’s best known political figures and was previously president from 2007-12, and prime minister and foreign minister before that.

Addressing concerns over political instability in the country, Ramos-Horta said he would work to heal divisions in Timor-Leste.

“I will do what I have always done throughout my life… I will always pursue dialogue, patiently, relentlessly, to find common ground to find solutions to the challenges this country faces,” he said.

Ramos-Horta said he had not spoken to his election rival Lu Olo, but had received an invitation from the President’s Office to discuss a handover of power.

Political instability, oil dependency
Home to 1.3 million people, the half-island and predominately Roman Catholic nation of Timor-Leste has for years grappled with bouts of political instability and the challenge of diversifying its economy, which is largely dependent on oil and gas.

Ramos-Horta said he expected Timor-Leste to become the 11th member of the regional bloc the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) “within this year or next year at the latest”.

Timor-Leste currently holds observer status in ASEAN.

The president-elect, who will be inaugurated on May 20, the 20th anniversary of the country’s restoration of independence, said he would work with the government to respond to global economic pressures, including the impact on supply chains from the war in Ukraine and covid-19 lockdowns in China.

“Of course, we start feeling it here in Timor Leste. Oil prices went up, rice went up, that is a reality of what has happened in the world. It requires wise leadership.”

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

The United States insists it is a Pacific nation and has unveiled a raft of new strategies to better engage with other nations in the Region.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is the first Secretary of State to visit Fiji in nearly 37 years.

During his historic visit, Blinken announced that the US was pursuing deeper engagement plans with Pacific nations.

A key element and motivation for those plans is the strengthening of the US presence to match the growing influence of China in the Pacific.

In its engagement strategy, he said that China had combined its economic, diplomatic, military, and technological might to pursue “a sphere of influence in the Indo-Pacific and seeks to become the world’s most influential power”.

During an eight-hour visit to Fiji, while returning from a Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) meeting in Australia, Blinken announced climate change financing, military and other exchange initiatives and plans for a new embassy in the Solomon Islands among other foreign diplomacy engagements.

Blinken has been on a world tour for the past several months to discuss two main issues: covid-19 and China, with his counterparts including Australian Foreign Affairs Minister Marise Payne, Indian Minister of External Affairs Dr S. Jaishankar and Japanese Minister for Foreign Affairs Hayashi Yoshimasa.

New Indo-Pacific engagement strategy
While in Fiji, Blinken met with acting Prime Minister Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum and 18 Pacific Island leaders virtually, during which he announced the US government’s brand new Indo-Pacific engagement strategy, calling the region “vital to our own prosperity, our own progress”.

Blinken said that the new strategy was the result of a year of extensive engagement in the Asia Pacific region and would reflect US determination to strengthen its long-term position in the region.

“We will focus on every corner of the region, from Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, to South Asia and Oceania, including the Pacific Islands,” he said.

“We do so at a time when many of our allies and partners, including in Europe, are increasingly turning their own attention to the region; and when there is broad, bipartisan agreement in the U.S. Congress that the United States must, too.”

This American refocus is a direct response to the increasing influence of China in the Pacific.

Since 2006, Chinese trade and foreign aid to the Pacific has significantly increased. Beijing is now the third largest donor to the region.

Although Chinese aid still represents only 8 percent of all foreign aid between 2011 and 2017 (according to The Lowy Institute), many Pacific island governments have favoured concessional loans from China, to finance large infrastructure developments.

Chinese ‘coercion and aggression’
In Solomon Islands, where Blinken announced the latest US Embassy would be opened, almost half of all two-way trade is with China.

In describing China’s actions toward expanding its influence, Blinken stated:

“The PRC’s coercion and aggression spans the globe, but it is most acute in the Indo-Pacific. From the economic coercion of Australia to the conflict along the Line of Actual Control with India to the growing pressure on Taiwan and bullying of neighbours in the East and South China Seas, our allies and partners in the region bear much of the cost of the PRC’s harmful behaviour.

“In the process, the PRC is also undermining human rights and international law, including freedom of navigation, as well as other principles that have brought stability and prosperity to the Indo-Pacific.”

When questioned by reporters about US intentions for “authentic engagement that speaks to the real needs of the islanders”, Blinken replied that the US sees the Pacific as the region for the future, and that their intentions were beyond mere security concerns.

“It’s much more fundamental than that. When we are looking at this region that we share, we see it as the region for the future, vital to our own prosperity, our own progress.

“Sixty per cent of global GDP is here, 50 percent of the world’s population is here. For all the challenges that we have, at the moment we’re working on together, it’s also a source of tremendous opportunity.”

Democracy and transparency
Blinken insisted that Washington’s new strategy was about using democracy and transparency to build a free and open Indo-Pacific which was committed to a “rules based order”.

Moving onto economics, the Secretary of State stated that the US intends to forge partnerships and alliances within the region, which will include more work with ASEAN, APEC and the Pacific Islands Forum.

Despite being headquartered in Fiji, the Forum was not invited to be part of Blinken’s visit.

At the Pacific Leaders meeting, Blinken announced a commitment to deeper economic integration including measures to open market access for agricultural commodities from the islands.

“It’s about connecting our countries together, deepening and stitching together different partnerships and alliances. It’s about building shared prosperity, with new approaches to economic integration, some of which we talked about today with high standards.”

Washington’s new Indo Pacific engagement strategy also includes commitments to develop new approaches to trade, which meet high labour and environmental standards as well as to create more resilient and secure supply chains which are “diverse, open, and predictable.”

Climate change strategy
Regarding climate change, Blinken announced plans to divert substantial portions of the US$150 billion announced at COP26 last year to the Pacific and also plans to make shared investments in decarbonisation and clean energy.

The Indo Pacific strategy announced commitments to “working with allies and partners to develop 2030 and 2050 targets, strategies, plans, and policies consistent with limiting global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius”.

Blinken stated that the US was committed to reducing regional vulnerability to the impacts of climate change and environmental degradation.

On security matters, Blinken said the Pacific could expect power derived from US alliances in other parts of the world to come to the islands.

“The United States is increasingly speaking with one voice with our NATO allies and our G7 partners, when it comes to Indo Pacific matters, you can see the strength of that commitment to the Indo Pacific throughout the past year.”

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

A View from Afar – LIVE @ MIDDAY Thursday October 14: In this podcast, Paul G. Buchanan and Selwyn Manning will analyse how Taiwan is delicately navigating its way between two clashing global powers. On one side there’s China and on the other is the USA.

Taiwan has been self-governing for over 70 years. It insists it wants to remain an independently governed economy.

But recently, the People’s Republic of China’s leader Xi Jinping stated China wishes to reunify Taiwan and assert control over the South East Asia nation.

And, on the other hand, the United States of America has restated its defence commitment to Taiwan. The Pentagon this week said the US’ commitment to Taiwan is rock solid, and, in recent weeks it has been reported that US military forces have been present on Taiwanese soil.

But how committed is the US really? Will the US come to Taiwan’s defence should China invade?

And, what would China gain strategically if it did invade, and, what would China lose if a regional conflict occurred?

Taiwan’s leader said this week that it will not submit to China’s will on the issue of its independence, but rather it will use diplomacy to find a way through – that is unless China did invade.

So what is the most likely outcome of this situation? How can China back off, save face, and get back to the business of economic mutual interest?

Join Paul and Selwyn for this LIVE recording of this podcast and remember any comments you make while live can be included in this programme.

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