Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rebecca Carey, Senior Lecturer in Earth Sciences, University of Tasmania

Predicting when a volcano will next blow is tricky business, but lessons we learned from one of Hawaii’s recent eruptions may help.

Kīlauea, on the Big Island of Hawai’i, is probably the best understood volcano on Earth. That’s thanks to monitoring and gathered information that extends back to the formation of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory in 1912.

The volcano is also subject to the world’s most technologically advanced geophysical monitoring network.

Read more: From Kilauea to Fuego: three things you should know about volcano risk

From the skies, satellites collect data that show the changing topography of the volcano as magma moves throughout the internal magma plumbing system. Satellites also look at the composition of volcanic gases.

From the ground, volcanologists use a number of highly sensitive chemical and physical tools to further understand the structure of that magma plumbing system. This helps to study the movement of magma within the volcano.

Earthquakes and vibrations

A lynch pin of volcano monitoring is seismicity – how often, where and when earthquakes occur. Magma movement within the volcano triggers earthquakes, and putting together the data on their location (a technique known as triangulation) tracks the path of magma underground.

A newer technique, seismic interferometry, uses vibrations of energy from ocean waves hitting the distant shorelines that then travel through the volcano.

Changes in the speed of these vibrations help us map the 3D footprint of the volcano’s magma plumbing system. We can then detect when, and in some cases how, the magma plumbing system is changing.

This monitoring provides the “pulse” of the volcano during times of inactivity – a baseline from which to detect change during volcanic unrest. This proved invaluable for early warning, and the prediction of where and when, of the eruption of Kīlauea on May 3, 2018.

The “pulse” of Kīlauea includes cycles of volcano inflation (bulging) and deflation (contraction) as magma moves into and out of the storage region at the summit of the volcano.

The speeds of vibrations travelling through the volcano are predictable during observations of inflation/deflation cycles. When the volcano bulges, the vibrations travel faster through the volcano as rock and magma is compressed. When the volcano contracts these speeds decrease.

We describe this relationship between the two sets of data – the bulging/contraction and the faster/slower speed of vibrations – as coupled.

Something changed

Compared to our baseline, we saw the coupled data shift 10 days before the Kīlauea eruption on May 3. That told scientists the magma plumbing system had changed in a significant way.

The volcano was bulging due to the buildup of pressure inside the magma chamber, but the seismic waves were slowing down quite dramatically, instead of speeding up.

Our interpretation of this data was that the summit magma chamber was not able to sustain the pressure from an increasing magma supply – the bulge was too big. Rock material started to break around the summit magma chamber.

Breakage of the rocks perhaps then led to changes of the summit magmatic system so that more magma could more easily arrive at the eruption site about 40km away.

As well as Kīlauea, such coupled data sets are regularly collected, investigated and interpreted in terms of magma transport at other volcanoes globally. Sites include Piton de la Fournaise on Reunion Island, and Etna volcano, Italy.

But our modelling was the first to demonstrate these changes in the coupled data relationship could occur due to weakening of the material inside the volcano before an eruption.

The damage model that we applied can now be used for other volcanoes in a state of unrest. This adds to the toolbox volcanologists need to predict the when and where of an impending eruption.

So much data, we need help

When volcanoes are in a heightened state of unrest, the volume of information available from digital data and ground observations is extreme. Scientists tend to rely on observational monitoring first, and other data when time and extra people are available.

But the total amount of incoming data (such as from satellites) is overwhelming, and scientists simply can’t keep up. Machine learning might be able to help us here.

Artificial intelligence is the new kid on the block for eruption prediction. Neural networks and other algorithms can use high volumes of complex data and “learn” to distinguish between different signals.

Read more: How the dinosaurs went extinct: asteroid collision triggered potentially deadly volcanic eruptions

Automated early alert systems of an impending eruption using sensor arrays exist for some volcanoes today, for example at Etna volcano, Italy. It’s likely that artificial intelligence will make these systems more sophisticated in the future.

Early detection sounds wonderful for authorities charged with public safety, but many volcanologists are wary.

If they lead to multiple false alarms then that could slash trust in scientists for both managers of volcanic crises and the public alike.

– ref. The ‘pulse’ of a volcano can be used to help predict its next eruption – http://theconversation.com/the-pulse-of-a-volcano-can-be-used-to-help-predict-its-next-eruption-117005

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Denis Muller, Senior Research Fellow in the Centre for Advancing Journalism, University of Melbourne

Two big media-related issues have emerged from the federal election: how opinion polls are reported and the polarisation of the main newspaper groups.

Opinion polls have been part of Australia’s political landscape for 90 years, and for most of that time they have been reliable barometers of public opinion.

As a result, they have acquired considerable credibility. Malcolm Turnbull weaponised this for political purposes when he justified his challenge to Tony Abbott’s prime ministership in 2015 on the basis that Abbott had lost 30 consecutive Newspolls.

It was a gross lapse of judgment.

Not only did it set up Turnbull to be judged by the same criterion – as duly happened last year when he lost his 31st Newspoll – but he chose precisely the wrong time to elevate public opinion polls to the status of prime ministerial kingmaker.

Read more: Coalition wins election but Abbott loses Warringah, plus how the polls got it so wrong

Public opinion polls have been living on borrowed time since mobile phones began to displace household fixed-line phones, a gradual but inexorable process over a couple of decades.

Without digressing too far into the complexities of sampling, it is now difficult, time-consuming and expensive to generate a genuinely random sample of voters.

Telephone polling, introduced in the 1980s, originally drew its samples from the Telstra list of fixed-line numbers – in other words, from the White Pages. There is no equivalent available list of mobile phones so, for practical purposes, drawing a genuine random sample has become impossible.

To cope with these realities, polling organisations have adopted somewhat makeshift sampling and interviewing procedures, drawing on various combinations of fixed-line phones, mobile phones, large panels of available respondents, and robo-polling.

This in turn raises questions about the validity of statements about sampling error, something the election results brought home with a thump.

Yet the media have carried on reporting the polls as if nothing has changed.

Poll results still make banner headlines. Stories are still written on the basis that the data are as good as they have always been.

The public, accustomed to the longstanding reliability of Australian polls, do not know and are not told that this is nonsense.

Polls are useful and interesting stories, but the reporting of them needs to change.

There needs to be greater transparency about how a poll’s sampling and interviewing are done. The way a poll is done – whether it is a human being or a machine asking the questions, for instance – is significant.

The public is also entitled to know that today’s polls have limitations that polls of the past did not have. They are more indicative and less precise, so statements about sampling error need to be qualified accordingly.

And as the main newspapers have become more partisan, so the reporting of polls has shifted from straightforward accounts of the data to stories dominated by analysis, comment or wishful thinking on the part of the writer or the editor.

Partisanship in the media, especially the newspapers, has always been with us, but analyses by Media Watch and The New Daily show it reached extreme levels in this election.

Read more: Mounting evidence the tide is turning on News Corp, and its owner

An audit of metropolitan newspaper front pages by Media Watch showed a heavy anti-Labor bias by News Corp papers, and a roughly equivalent – but less strident – pro-Labor bias by the old Fairfax (now Nine) newspapers, The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.

The New Daily analysed three nights of Sky News coverage – April 30, May 1 and 2 – and found gross anti-Labor bias:

News Corp’s unconstrained anti-Labor bias cannot account entirely for Labor’s disastrous showing, but common sense says it accounts for some.

For example, the company has a daily newspaper monopoly in Brisbane through The Courier-Mail. It was virulently anti-Labor and Labor did astonishingly badly in Queensland. Coincidence? Possibly, but unlikely.

If Australia had a half-decent system of media accountability, there would be a public inquiry into the increasing polarisation of Australian newspapers and into the conduct of Sky at night.

However, the newspaper industry’s self-regulator, the Australian Press Council, relies on the two big newspaper organisations for nearly all its funding, so the chances of having such an inquiry approach zero.

And the broadcasting regulator, the Australian Media and Communications Authority, has never shown the slightest interest in reviewing the way commercial television and radio cover elections.

So in an age where polarisation is undermining democracies around the world, Australia is stuck with an increasingly polarised media, a highly concentrated media ownership landscape and no apparent way to do anything about it.

– ref. Outrage, polls and bias: 2019 federal election showed Australian media need better regulation – http://theconversation.com/outrage-polls-and-bias-2019-federal-election-showed-australian-media-need-better-regulation-117401

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sacha Kendall, Post-doctoral research fellow in public health, University of Technology Sydney

Aboriginal women are the fastest growing prison population in Australia. They comprise around one-third of female prisoners in New South Wales, despite making up just 3% of the population. The majority of Aboriginal women in prison (more than 80%) are mothers.

Our research team interviewed 43 Aboriginal mothers in six prisons across NSW about their physical and mental health and well-being. We found they were overwhelmingly unable to access culturally appropriate treatments for their mental health, well-being and substance use issues.

These circumstances compounded the poor health and well-being of Aboriginal mothers, and in some instances triggered or exacerbated mental health problems.

Read more: Three charts on: Australia’s booming prison population

A cycle of trauma and incarceration

The mothers we interviewed said intergenerational trauma and the forced removal of their children by government services were the most significant factors affecting their health and well-being.

Mothers recounted their own and their relatives’ experiences of being removed from their families as children, as part of the Stolen Generations, painting a picture of longstanding and ongoing intergenerational trauma.

In prison, many of the Aboriginal mothers experienced significant distress due to the trauma of separation from children combined with the stress of the prison environment. Trauma is associated with high rates of co-occurring mental health disorders.

Many mothers had children in the care of family members, but the long distances between the prison and the family’s home made regular contact extremely difficult.

Phone contact in prison was also difficult if the mothers did not have the money to use the prison phones.

Mothers whose children had been taken by government services were reliant on government caseworkers to facilitate their children’s visits. Many mothers reported that these visits were rare, even though they had been ordered by the court. Mothers worried that their children would not be returned to them.

Read more: Why are we losing so many Indigenous children to suicide?

Some Aboriginal women use substances to cope with past trauma. But this is seen as a law and order issue rather than a health problem or coping method of last resort because they haven’t been able to access services to address intergenerational trauma.

This further increases risk of contact with the criminal justice system and leads to deterioration of mental health and well-being. But no action is taken to address these underlying causes of discrimination and incarceration.

As a result, more than 80% of Aboriginal mothers in prison in NSW report their offences are drug-related. Aboriginal women are more likely to be charged and imprisoned for minor offences than non-Aboriginal women. Consequently, Aboriginal women often cycle through the prison system on shorter sentences or remand (unsentenced) and experience multiple incarcerations.

This compounds intergenerational trauma and cycles of incarceration. It creates another generation of Aboriginal children forcibly removed from their mothers as well as separating Aboriginal mothers from their families and communities.

Poor physical and mental health

The mothers in our study reported having multiple physical health problems too.

Some had sustained injuries caused by family violence. Head injuries produced ongoing symptoms such as head pain, blurred vision, and memory loss, which made it more difficult to access treatment.

The mothers reported a high occurrence of reproductive health problems including endometriosis, ovarian cysts, precancerous changes of the cervix, and cervical cancer. The mothers highlighted the links between reproductive health problems and trauma, injury, and poor social and emotional well-being.

Many of the women reported extensive waiting times to access treatment and support, which exacerbated these problems.

Read more: Acknowledge the brutal history of Indigenous health care – for healing

Many women who had been taking medication that had been effective for a mental health problem in the community, for example prescription medication for anxiety, were not able to continue on that medication on admission to prison.

They were forced to withdraw from it and wait, sometimes weeks, to see a prison psychiatrist, presenting a serious and imminent risk to their stability, health and well-being.

What can be done?

The incarceration of Aboriginal mothers is a serious public health issue. The gross over-representation of Aboriginal women in prison reflects the inequity and discrimination they face, and the failure of multiple systems to address their needs and divert them from prison.

We urgently need culturally informed approaches to address the health and well-being of Aboriginal mothers in prison and after release to stop ongoing cycles of incarceration and child removal.

The mothers in our study highlighted the need for culturally appropriate services in the community that promote healing for intergenerational trauma. This includes an Aboriginal women’s healing and drug and alcohol service, long-term housing, trauma-informed counselling, and facilities specifically to support Aboriginal women in regaining access to their children.

Aboriginal mothers know what it means to be healthy and stay healthy, but too often do not have access to culturally safe services to support them in their mothering, to realise their health goals, and to remain out of prison and in the community.

Read more: Babies and toddlers are living with their mums in prison. We need to look after them better

– ref. Aboriginal mothers are incarcerated at alarming rates – and their mental and physical health suffers – http://theconversation.com/aboriginal-mothers-are-incarcerated-at-alarming-rates-and-their-mental-and-physical-health-suffers-116827

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Paton Gilmour, Research Scientist: Coral Ecology, Australian Institute of Marine Science

Diving on the remote coral reefs in the north of Western Australia during the world’s worst bleaching event in 2016, the first thing I noticed was the heat. It was like diving into a warm bath, with surface temperatures of 34⁰C.

Then I noticed the expanse of bleached colonies. Their bright white skeletons were visible through the translucent tissue following the loss of the algae with which they share a biological relationship. The coral skeletons had not yet eroded and collapsed, a grim reminder of what it looked like just a few months before.

I spent the past 15 years documenting the recovery of these reefs following the first global coral bleaching event in 1998, only to see them devastated again in the third global bleaching event in 2016.

Read more: Western Australia’s coral reefs are in trouble: we mustn’t ignore them

The WA coral reefs may not be as well known as the Great Barrier Reef, but they’re just as large and diverse. And they too have been affected by cyclones and coral bleaching. Our recent study found many WA reefs now have the lowest coral cover on record.

When my colleague, Rebecca Green, witnessed that mass bleaching for the first time, she asked me how long it would take the reefs to recover.

“Probably not in my lifetime” was my reply – an abrupt but accurate reply considering the previous rate of recovery, future increases in ocean temperatures … and my age.

The worst mass bleaching on record

A similar scene is playing out around the world as researchers document the decline of ecosystems they have spent a lifetime studying.

Our study, published in the journal Coral Reefs, is the first to establish a long-term history of changes in coral cover across eight reef systems, and to document the effects of the 2016 mass bleaching event at 401 sites across WA.

Read more: The third global bleaching event took its toll on Western Australia’s super-corals

Given the vast expanse of WA coral reefs, our assessment included data from several monitoring programs and researchers from 19 institutions.

These reefs exist in some of the most remote and inaccessible parts of the world, so our study also relied on important observations of coral bleaching from regional managers, tourist operators and Bardi Jawi Indigenous Rangers in the Kimberley.

Our aim was to establish the effects of climate change on coral reefs along Western Australia’s vast coastline and their current condition.

The heat stress in 2016 was the worst on record, causing mass bleaching and large reductions in coral cover at Christmas Island, Ashmore Reef and Scott Reef. This was also the first time mass bleaching was recorded in the southern parts of the inshore Kimberley region, including in the long oral history of Indigenous Australians who have managed this sea-country for thousands of years.

The mass bleaching events we documented were triggered by a global increase in temperature of 1⁰C above pre-industrial levels, whereas temperatures are predicted to rise by 1.5⁰C between 2030 and 2052.

In that scenario, the reefs that have bleached badly will unlikely have the capacity to fully recover, and mass bleaching will occur at the reefs that have so far escaped the worst impacts.

Read more: The world’s coral reefs are in trouble, but don’t give up on them yet

The future of WA’s coral reefs is uncertain, but until carbon emissions can be reduced, coral bleaching will continue to increase.

Surviving coral reef refuges must be protected

The extreme El Niño conditions in 2016 severely affected the northern reefs, and a similar pattern was seen in the long-term records.

The more southern reefs were affected by extreme La Niña conditions – most significantly by a heatwave in 2011 that caused coral bleaching, impacted fisheries and devastated other marine and terrestrial ecosystems.

Since 2010, all of WA’s reefs systems have bleached at least once.

Frequent bleaching and cyclone damage have stalled the recovery of reefs at Shark Bay, Ningaloo and at the Montebello and Barrow Islands. And coral cover at Scott Reef, Ashmore Reef and at Christmas Island is low following the 2016 mass bleaching.

In fact, average coral cover at most (75%) reef systems is at or near the lowest on record. But not all WA reefs have been affected equally.

In 2016 there was little (around 10%) bleaching recorded at the northern inshore Kimberley Reefs, at the Cocos Keeling Islands, and at the Rowley Shoals. Coral cover and diversity at these reefs remain high.

And during mass bleaching there were patches of reef that were less affected by heat stress.

These patches of reef will hopefully escape the worst impacts and retain moderate coral cover and diversity as the world warms, acting as refuges. There are also corals that have adapted to survive in parts of the reef where temperatures are naturally hotter.

Some reefs across WA will persist, thanks to these refuges from heat stress, their ability to adapt and to expand their range. These refuges must be protected from any additional stress, such as poor water quality and overfishing.

Read more: Even the super-corals of Australia’s Kimberley are not immune to climate change

In any case, the longer it takes to curb carbon emissions and other pressures to coral reefs, the greater the loss will be.

Coral reefs support critical food stocks for fisheries around the world and provide a significant contribution to Australia’s Blue Economy, worth an estimated A$68.1 billion.

We are handing environmental uncertainty to the next generation of scientists, and we must better articulate to everyone that their dependence on nature is the most fundamental of all the scientific concepts we explore.

– ref. ‘Bright white skeletons’: some Western Australian reefs have the lowest coral cover on record – http://theconversation.com/bright-white-skeletons-some-western-australian-reefs-have-the-lowest-coral-cover-on-record-116423

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Sievers, Research Fellow, Global Wetlands Project, Australia Rivers Institute, Griffith University

When we think of mangrove forests, seagrass meadows and saltmarshes, we don’t immediately think of shark habitats. But the first global review of links between large marine animals (megafauna) and coastal wetlands is challenging this view – and how we might respond to the biodiversity crisis.

Mangrove forests, seagrass meadows and saltmarshes support rich biodiversity, underpin the livelihoods of more than a billion people worldwide, store carbon, and protect us from extreme weather events.

We know marine megafauna also use these habitats to live, feed and breed. Green turtles and manatees, for instance, are known to eat seagrass, and dolphins hunt in mangroves.

But new associations are also being discovered. The bonnethead shark – a close relative of hammerheads – was recently found to eat and digest seagrass.

Read more: Omnivore sharks and cannibal hippos – the strange truth about dinnertime in the animal kingdom

The problem is that we’re losing these important places. And until now, we’ve underestimated how important they are for large, charismatic and ecologically important marine animals.

Counting wetland megafauna

Today our review of the connections between marine megafauna and vegetated coastal wetlands was published in the journal Trends in Ecology and Evolution. As it turns out, far more megafauna species use coastal wetlands than we thought.

Before our review, the number of marine megafauna species known to use these habitats was 110, according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, which assesses species’ conservation status.

We identified another 64 species from 340 published studies, bringing the total number to 174 species. This means 13% of all marine megafauna use vegetated coastal wetlands.

We predominantly documented these habitat associations by electronic tracking, direct observation or from analysing stomach contents or chemical tracers in animal tissues.

Less commonly, acoustic recordings and animal-borne video studies – strapping a camera on the back of turtle, for instance – were used.

Deepening our understanding of how species use their habitats

In recent weeks, the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) released a damming assessment of humanity’s stewardship of the natural world. Up to 1 million species were reported to be facing extinction within decades.

Read more: ‘Revolutionary change’ needed to stop unprecedented global extinction crisis

We need to dramatically change how we relate to and engage with species and their habitats, if we are to fix this problem.

But the question is, how can we make global change real, relevant and feasible at local and regional scales? And, as the international community rises to this challenge, what information is needed to support such efforts?

Our study suggests a critical first step to addressing the global biodiversity crisis is to deepen our understanding of links between species and their habitats. We also need to elevate how the evidence is used to both assess extinction risk and prioritise, plan and deliver conservation actions.

More than half of all coastal wetlands have been lost globally and the rest are at risk from a range of serious threats, including deforestation. There is an urgent need to limit and reverse the loss of coastal wetlands to stop biodiversity loss, protect communities and tackle climate change.

Targeting places where high rates of mangrove loss intersect with threatened megafauna could lead to more efficient and effective conservation outcomes. Southeast Asia, Mexico and northern Brazil are such places.

In Southeast Asia, for example, the world’s largest mangrove forest is losing trees at a rate far exceeding global averages, largely due to aquaculture and agriculture. This is threatening the critically endangered green sawfish, which relies on these magroves habitats.

Habitats should always be considered in assessments

The IUCN Red List assesses the extinction risk for almost 100,000 species. It provides comprehensive information on global conservation statuses, combining information on population sizes, trends and threats.

The wealth of data collected during species’ assessments, including habitat associations of threatened species, is one of the Red List’s most valuable features.

But our study shows many known associations are yet to be included. And for more than half of the assessments for marine megafauna, habitat change is yet to be listed as a threat.

This is concerning because assessments that overlook habitat associations or lack sufficient detail, may not allow conservation resources be directed at the most effective recovery measures.

But it’s also important to note habitat associations have varying strengths and degrees of supporting evidence. For example, a population of animals shown to consume substantial amounts of seagrass is clearly a stronger ecological link than an individual simply being observed above seagrass.

In our paper, we propose a simple framework to address these issues, by clarifying habitat associations in conservation assessments. Ideally, these assessments would include the following:

• list all habitat types the species is known to associate with
• indicate the type of association (occurrence, grazing, foraging or breeding)
• cite the source of supporting evidence
• provide an estimate of the level of habitat dependence.

Data for decision making

Habitat loss is accelerating a global extinction crisis, but the importance of coastal habitats to marine megafauna has been significantly undervalued in assessments of extinction risk.

We need to strive to protect remaining coastal wetland habitats, not only for their ecological role, but also for their economic, social and cultural values to humans. We can do this by strengthening how we use existing scientific data on habitat associations in species assessments and conservation planning.

– ref. From sharks in seagrass to manatees in mangroves, we’ve found large marine species in some surprising places – http://theconversation.com/from-sharks-in-seagrass-to-manatees-in-mangroves-weve-found-large-marine-species-in-some-surprising-places-116177

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Somwrita Sarkar, Senior Lecturer in Design and Computation, University of Sydney

The Greater Sydney Commission has proposed a 40-year vision of a metropolitan region formed of three “cities”: the Eastern “Harbour” City, the Central “River” City, and the Western “Parkland” City. The plan aims to create 30-minute cities, where the community has access to jobs and services in three largely self-contained but connected regions. Thus, Sydney would be polycentric.

A polycentric city has multiple centres of employment, economic or social activity. Local labour markets and residential zones minimise long commutes, create a sense of place and neighbourhood, and strengthen economic agglomeration as companies, services and industries benefit from being close to one another.

Read more: Another tale of two cities: access to jobs divides Sydney along the ‘latte line’

However, it is still unclear whether Sydney is actually moving towards such a structure. In our recent work, we developed new ways of measuring polycentricity. We applied these to Journey to Work data from the 2016 Census to test how consistent the current centricity patterns of Greater Sydney are with the proposed plan.

How do you measure polycentricity?

Traditionally, employment densities are used as a measure of polycentricity. If the density of jobs in a location is higher than the average density for the entire region, then it is a centre.

However, this simple measure misses a key notion that makes cities what they are: network flows and spatial interactions. People “flow” from one place to another. Employment centres “attract” flows, and residential areas “produce” flows. Thus, a city is a collection of locations that interact dynamically, connected by daily commuting flows.

We proposed a set of new metrics to capture this idea of flows. We defined the net inflow of people to a location as the total number coming to this location to work minus the total number going from this location to work elsewhere. If the net inflows are positive, this place is a centre.

The chart below illustrates the idea. The base arc on the circle shows the number of people “flowing” out of a location to another location. The connecting arcs are coloured black if the net inflows into the focus regions (a), (b) or (c) are positive.

Sydney CBD clearly emerges as a global centre for the whole region. Parramatta is a regional centre. Other locations such as the Eastern Suburbs are not centres at all.

Read more: The future of Sydney: a tale of three cities?

The net inflow to a location can be divided by the total number of trips in the system, so inflow values are scaled from 0 to 1 using a standard statistical procedure. The higher the value, the higher the centre’s rank in the urban system. Here, a score of 1 means the centre is an absolute: all the trips in the system are a net inflow into the centre.

This gives us a trip-based centricity measure. And based on the area of the location, we can calculate a density-based centricity measure.

The maps below show trip-and-density-based measures – (a) and (b) respectively – for Greater Sydney at the Statistical Area Level 2 (representing a community that interacts together socially and economically).

Note the dominant role of the Sydney CBD. The other centres emerge as weak centres. Also, many of the second-order centres are very close to the CBD.

The concept of accessibility

Counting the net inflow into a location may provide us with information about general centricity. However, it still does not tell us how easy or difficult it is for people to actually get to jobs. This brings us to the idea of accessibility.

Walter Hansen defined accessibility as “the spatial distribution of activities about a point, adjusted for the ability and the desire of people … to overcome spatial separation”. More practically speaking, a location is accessible if it can be reached within a set time (say 30 minutes) from another location.

We counted the net accessibility of a location by counting the number of jobs minus the number of workers (labour) that could be accessed from a particular location (SA2) in Sydney within 30 minutes. We counted travel time both by car and by public transport during a usual weekday peak hour (Wednesday 8am). Similar to the trip and density measures, accessibility centricities can also be scaled as values between 0 and 1. This allows us to compare across the four measures.

In the maps above, (c) and (d) show the transit and auto-based accessibility centricities based on accessibility for public transport and vehicles. Sydney CBD is highly accessible. The second-order centres show much weaker accessibility.

Takeaways for urban policy and the three-cities plan

The chart below shows the top-ranked centre, Sydney CBD (Level 1 centre), and the lower-ranked subcentres (Levels 2 and 3) emerging from our analysis.

Accessibility planning should guide the design of a polycentric city

The design of polycentric Sydney should be guided by accessibility, the locations of jobs and homes, and subregional labour market organisation.

In short, the region should give priority to making jobs accessible by locating new jobs in emerging centres, instead of a mobility-focused system that takes people to jobs.

Reduce spatial mismatches between jobs and homes

Our results show that Sydney, paradoxically, remains strongly monocentric and strongly dispersed at the same time. The Sydney CBD accounts for 15% of jobs in the region, with the remaining 85% of jobs scattered around in weaker second-order centres and non-centres. Positive correlations exist between percentage of employed workers, trip-based centricity and the subcentre ranks.

But we see significant disparities between these ranks and accessibility centricities. This shows the spatial mismatches for commute lengths in the system.

A subcentre with high trip-centricity, employing a high percentage of workers, but relatively lower auto- and transit-based accessibility centricity, implies that even though a significant percentage of the population comes to this location to work, access to jobs at this centre within 30 minutes is low.

A policy response would be to increase the accessibility of jobs from this location, as it already serves as a centre. This situation is particularly clear in the cases of Parramatta-Rosehill and Macquarie Park-Marsfield. Penrith and Liverpool too have extremely weak accessibility centricity.

Read more: Reimagining Sydney with 3 CBDs: how far off is a Parramatta CBD?

Polycentric cities should promote spatial justice

As cities grow in size, commute lengths increase if the labour market for the entire metropolitan region is integrated. Commute lengths will stabilise if a city has a clear polycentric or modular structure.

In the case of Sydney, spatial equity has always been a concern. However, inter-city comparisons show city size has a strong bearing on its equity and efficiency.

Our results show it’s increasingly important for larger cities to introduce a framework of subregional labour markets as part of the polycentricity agenda. Enabling shorter commutes for workers will improve spatial equity as well as efficiencies.

– ref. How close is Sydney to the vision of creating three 30-minute cities? – http://theconversation.com/how-close-is-sydney-to-the-vision-of-creating-three-30-minute-cities-115847

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tracey West, Lecturer in Behavioural Finance, Griffith University

The Australian Labor Party’s 2019 election campaign showed a depth and breadth of economic policies rare for an opposition party to present. Its policy agenda was boldly extensive. But in developing these policies over the past five years, it seems Labor’s economic minds overlooked some fundamental principles of behavioural economics.

Had greater focus been put on these principles, it is possible Labor would have taken a different approach to selling its credentials, and succeeded in moving more voters its way.

Read more: Labor’s election defeat reveals its continued inability to convince people it can make their lives better

1. People are loss averse

Distinguished psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman demonstrated in the 1970s that losses have a profound psychological impact and people prefer to avoid them. In 1979 they published a paper proposing what they called “prospect theory” – that the pain a person feels from a monetary loss is greater than the pleasure felt from a monetary gain of the same value.

As Tversky and Daniel Kahneman put it succinctly: “Losses loom larger than gains.” This means, when faced with uncertain outcomes, most people prefer keeping the status quo to the risk of change.

Labor’s failure to persuade more voters they would gain more than they might lose under its reforms played to the Coalition’s advantage.

The government was able, for example, to make the most of Labor’s policy on negative gearing by playing on the chance all home values would fall, even though modelling suggested any fall would be minor.

Read more: Confirmation from NSW Treasury. Labor’s negative gearing policy would barely move house prices

It did something similar with Labor’s franking credit, casting it as a “retiree tax”, and playing on fears that big promises to increase spending on welfare, health, education and wages might mean them losing money from other tax changes.

2. Limited decision-making

People’s decisions are limited by the amount of information they have – a concept known as bounded rationality – and giving them more information doesn’t necessarily help.

Our ability to pay attention to two or three things at the same time is much more limited than we think. We tend to be selectively inattentive, screening out information we perceive as unimportant, and preferencing information that confirms existing views.

Economists Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein argued in a 2002 article that bounded rationality demanded “libertarian paternalism” – limiting the choices offered to voters without eliminating freedom of choice.

Labor went another way – burying voters in an avalanche of policy prescriptions. Arguably it overestimated how much people would absorb, and diluted focus on a few key ideas.

To understand and compare policy detail, according to economist and psychologist Daniel Kahneman, requires a deliberate and methodical approach – what he calls “System 2 thinking”.

But most media and social media deals in “System 1 thinking”, which responds instinctively to short slogans and repeated messaging.

What Labor failed to do was reconcile System 2 idealism with System 1 necessities.

3. Now is worth more than later

People place a higher value on the short-term over the long-term. From an evolutionary perspective, this bias has no doubt served us well, particularly in times past when the future was much more uncertain.

This disposition informs an important economic concept known as hyperbolic discounting – the tendency for people to increasingly choose a smaller reward sooner over a larger reward later.

Say, for example, you were offered a choice between taking $150 now or $160 in four weeks. Most people would take the $150.

But what if you were asked to choose between $150 in 48 weeks or $160 in 52 weeks? Research shows most people would then elect to wait the extra four weeks to receive the higher amount of money.

So Labor faced the problem of it promising to deliver benefits that might take decades to pan out, such as transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy, while the Coalition was offering immediate tax cuts and cheaper energy prices. Many Australians, we can imagine, preferred the more immediate benefits to the longer-term ones.

Read more: Labor’s election loss was not a surprise if you take historical trends into account

Whatever criticisms might be made about other aspects of the campaign, the Coalition’s messaging demonstrated an intuitive understanding of the behavioural biases of individuals.

From its strategy Labor could learn a lot.

– ref. 3 lessons from behavioural economics Bill Shorten’s Labor Party forgot about – http://theconversation.com/3-lessons-from-behavioural-economics-bill-shortens-labor-party-forgot-about-117404

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Louise Pryke, Lecturer, Languages and Literature of Ancient Israel, Macquarie University

In this series, we look at under-acknowledged women through the ages.

“It belongs in a museum.” With these words, Indiana Jones, the world’s best-known fictional archaeologist, articulated an association between archaeologists, antiquities, and museums that has a very long history. Indeed, even Jones himself would likely marvel at the historic setting of the world’s first “museum,” and the remarkable woman who is believed to have been its curator, the Mesopotamian princess, Ennigaldi-Nanna.

Ennigaldi-Nanna was the priestess of the moon deity Sin, and the daughter of the Neo-Babylonian king, Nabonidus. In the ancient Mesopotamian city of Ur, around 530BCE, a small collection of antiquities was gathered, with Ennigaldi-Nanna working to arrange and label the varied artefacts.

This collection was considered by the British archaeologist, Sir Charles Leonard Woolley, to be the earliest known example of a “museum”.

In 1925, Woolley and his team were excavating at Ur (now in the Dhi Qar governate of southern Iraq). They discovered a curious collection of artefacts among the ruins of a Babylonian palace. Especially unusual was that while the items were from different geographical areas and historical settings, they were neatly assembled together.

The items ranged in dates from around 2100 BCE to 600 BCE. They included part of a statue of the famous early king, Shulgi of Ur, who ruled around 2058 BCE, a ceremonial mace-head made of stone, and some texts. The statue, Woolley observed, had been carefully restored to preserve the writing.

There was also a Kassite boundary stele (called a “kudurru”), a written document used to mark boundaries and make proclamations. The stele was dated to around 1400 BCE, and contained, Woolley noted, a “terrific curse” on anyone who removed or destroyed the record it contained.

Many items were accompanied by labels giving details about the artefacts. These were written in three languages, including Sumerian. The labels have been described in modern scholarship as early examples of the “metadata” that is so critical to the preservation of antiquities and the historical record.

Read more: Fifteen years after looting, thousands of artefacts are still missing from Iraq’s national museum

The museum, over 2,500 years old, was centred on cultural heritage, and it is thought to have perhaps had an educational purpose. Along with her other roles, Ennigaldi-Nanna is believed to have run a scribal school for elite women.

When considering the discovery, Woolley noted that the discovery of a museum associated with the priestess was not unexpected, given the close connection between religious specialists and education. He also commented on the “antiquarian piety” of the time of the museum’s construction — an interest in history was a common feature among monarchs from the Neo-Babylonian period.

A family fascination with history

Indeed, Ennigaldi-Nanna’s appreciation for the past seems to have been a family trait. Her father Nabonidus had a fascination with history which led him to conduct excavations and discover lost texts. Many of the items in the collection were discovered by him, with Nabonidus sometimes described in the modern day as the world’s first archaeologist.

Nabonidus was the last king of the Neo-Babylonian Empire, and a religious reformer. His eldest son, Belshazzar, ruled as his regent for many years, but is perhaps best known for his appearance in the biblical Book of Daniel. In a famous scene, the unfortunate regent sees the end of the Neo-Babylonian kingdom coming when it is foretold through the writing of a disembodied hand on a wall.

King Nabonidus’ interest in history didn’t end with archaeology. He also worked to revive ancient cultic traditions relating to the moon deity, Sin (Sumerian Nanna). His daughter Ennigaldi was an important part of these efforts, indeed, her name is an ancient Sumerian one, meaning “the priestess, the desire of the Moon god.”

The appointment of Ennigaldi as high priestess in Ur reinvigorated a historical trend made famous by Sargon of Akkad, who installed his daughter, the poetess Enheduanna, in the role over 1000 years earlier.

Read more: Hidden women of history: Enheduanna, princess, priestess and the world’s first known author

By the time of Ennigaldi-Nanna’s appointment, the religious role she would inhabit had long been unoccupied, and the rituals associated with the post had been forgotten. Nabonidus, however, describes finding an ancient stela belonging to Nebuchadnezzar I, and using it to guide his actions.

The historic aspects of the appointment of Ennigaldi-Nanna were further emphasised by Nabonidus when noting his research into the requirements of her role. The king describes consulting the writings of a previous priestess, a sister of the ruler Rim-Sin named En-ane-du.

Rim-Sin reigned over 1200 years before Nabonidus came to power. While some scholars doubt Nabonidus’ discovery of the stela of Nebuchadnezzar I, his recovery of the writings of the priestess, En-ane-du, has greater acceptance.

Little known today

Ennigaldi is largely unknown in the modern day. An exception to her modern anonymity may be found in the luxury fashion line, Ennigaldi, which creates pieces inspired by ancient Babylonian architecture.

While relatively little is known of the life of Ennigaldi, there are other well-known women in her family tree. Ennigaldi’s grandmother, Adad-guppi, was also a powerful priestess involved in the political world of her son, Nabonidus. Adad-guppi is best known in the present day from her “autobiography,” a cuneiform account of her life, written in the first person. Adad-guppi’s autobiography records the blessings she received from the moon deity such as living to the age of 104 with a sound mind and body.

The city of Ur and its museum were abandoned around 500 BCE, due to deteriorating environmental conditions. These included a severe drought, along with changing river and silt patterns. The prevalence of drought has also been cited as a likely cause of the falls of many earlier kingdoms from the Bronze Age.

The story of the world’s first known museum, its curator, and her family, shows the timeless appeal of conserving the treasures of the past. At the same time, the disappearance of this early institution of learning over two millennia ago demonstrates the significant overlap in the important areas of cultural heritage and environmental conservation.

– ref. Hidden women of history: Ennigaldi-Nanna, curator of the world’s first museum – http://theconversation.com/hidden-women-of-history-ennigaldi-nanna-curator-of-the-worlds-first-museum-116431

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jenna Price, Senior lecturer, University of Technology Sydney

Social media backlash and a Queensland government complaint to the Australian Press Council has forced the Sunshine Coast Daily to apologise to its readers for picturing Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk in crosshairs on its front page, next to the headline “Anna, you’re next”.

The newspaper’s editor Craig Warhurst said in a statement:

For those of you in the community who feel let down and betrayed by the image, I apologise.

Warhust says the paper will publish the apology in tomorrow’s edition, along with reader criticism and concerns.

But is this enough?

Marcus Strom, Federal President (Media) of the Media, Entertainment & Arts Alliance (MEAA) argues that in a time of increased political violence, including the murder of British politician Jo Cox in 2016, publishing this image is irresponsible:

At best, this image is distasteful, at worst it could be interpreted as incitement to violence.

Read more: How Australian media are changing the way they report violence against women

Is this kind of journalism ethical?

The Queensland government’s complaint to the Australian Press Council (APC) was lodged on the grounds that the graphic used by the newspaper encouraged violence against women.

APC judgements take an inordinate amount of time to finalise, and the best result it can achieve is a correction, apology or some other form of remedy.

A detailed look at the MEAA Code of Ethics reveals that “incitement to violence” isn’t listed as a breach. But there is nothing about this front page which could be construed as public interest. As Lynnette Sheridan Burns argues in her book Understanding Journalism, journalists should consider the social ramifications of their activities.

The national violence prevention initiative, Our Watch, has guidelines for reporting on violence against women. Our Watch CEO, Patty Kinnersly, says:

While images and vision are vital to telling a story, it is important that media professionals use appropriate footage that doesn’t sensationalise, trivialise or condone violence against women.

But while Our Watch might “champion the belief that this violence is never acceptable or excusable”, it has no process for punishing incitement to violence.

Read more: Most men do not perpetrate sexual violence against women

Attacks on female leaders aren’t new

Sexism and threats of violence are not new phenomena in Australian media coverage of women politicians.

Julia Gillard, Australia’s first woman prime minister, was subjected to an unprecedented amount of gendered reporting that adopted violent and sexist imagery. The mainstream press often magnified the violent assault that Gillard received, claiming that she “used the gender-card” when she eventually called it out.

Notoriously, one TV commentator advised Australians “ought to be out there kicking her to death”, while radio host Alan Jones threatened that Gillard should be put “in a chaff bag and [taken] out to sea”.

And the problem isn’t limited to Australia. Women political leaders across the globe have long endured gendered and often sexist portrayals within the mainstream media which largely focuses on their bodies, fashion and personal lives. Such news stories trivialise women politicians in their political roles, further reinforcing male dominance within politics.

As in the example of Gillard, this has taken a more violent turn in recent years, where women politicians are portrayed through commentary that is sexist and even intimidating or threatening.

Unfortunately, this is largely regarded as “politics as usual”, with women politicians expected to just put up with it, or risk being seen as playing the gender-card.

Read more: Ending violence against women is good for everyone

It can discourage women from entering politics

Violent and misogynistic coverage of women has tangible run-on effects. A 2016 global survey found that 81.8% of women parliamentarians experienced some form of gendered violence, with half receiving threats of rape, beatings and even death.

Julia Gillard has spoken up about the sexist and violent coverage, warning that rape and death threats are an expected part of being a woman politician. Witnessing this gendered and violent media reporting can deter women from entering politics at a time when we should instead be striving toward gender parity.

Apologies in journalism are hard to come by, unless they are made to minimise damages, and they rarely achieve the prominence of the original affront. In this instance, the apology would have to take up the same space as the original image and headline, which, in Australian media, would be a unicorn apology indeed.

The Sunshine Coast Daily’s – “for those of you in the community who feel let down and betrayed by the image” – appears to fit into the #sorrynotsorry category. Whether or not the apology is worth the pixels or paper its printed on, the newspaper won’t be compelled to do more.

In the meantime, the Australian Press Council needs a stronger bite and the MEAA should consider redrafting its Code of Ethics to include some consideration to address the increasingly polarised media attacks on women.

– ref. Queensland paper backtracks after using violent imagery to depict Annastacia Palaszczuk – http://theconversation.com/queensland-paper-backtracks-after-using-violent-imagery-to-depict-annastacia-palaszczuk-117501

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen is running for Labor leader, despite carrying the baggage of being the architect of election policies, especially on franking credits, now being blamed after Saturday’s rout.

As they fight for the job of opposition leader, Bowen and Anthony Albanese are both putting economic growth at the centre of their campaigns.

This is a recognition that Labor did not meet the government’s argument about the importance of economic management.

On franking credits, however, Bowen is defensive, while Albanese has been very willing to acknowledge the proposed crackdown on cash refunds was a problem.

Bowen stood in front of the house in which he was brought up in Sydney’s suburb of Smithfield to announce his candidacy on Tuesday.

“I think that the party deserves choice. It deserves to hear competing ideas. I think it would be wrong of me not to provide that choice,” he said.

But he admitted Albanese is favourite. The Albanese camp is confident, and surprised Bowen is running.

Read more: Going up. Monday showed what the market thinks of Morrison

Bowen, from the right, said he believed in economic growth and in “reconnecting with the suburbs like this and the regions. I believe in connecting with people from all walks of life”.

He quickly went to the issue of franking credits, which he described as “the elephant in the room”.

“Some say Labor lost the election because of franking credits, which is a policy that I designed.

“I designed it to invest more in schools and hospitals […] We lost this election for a whole range of reasons – some of probably we haven’t yet determined.

“Franking credits was a controversial policy. A controversial policy, for which, no doubt, we lost some votes. But I don’t accept that it is why we lost the election in entirety.”

The leadership will be decided by ballots of the party membership and the caucus, with a 50-50 weighting.

Bowen said he would not be a candidate for deputy if he lost. He was not running on a ticket. But if he won, he would expect the deputy would come from the left. He said if Tanya Plibersek did not want to remain in the post, possible candidates might be Linda Burney or Mark Butler.

Read more: Minor parties perform well in federal election and reconfirm the power of preference deals

Albanese, from the left, said he “wouldn’t expect that there would be a massive chasm between my ideological position and Chris Bowen’s […] and I don’t think we should try to create false distinctions where they’re not there”.

When he launched his campaign on Sunday, Albanese said Labor had to show it cared not just about the distribution of wealth but also “about the creation of wealth”.

He has also said the franking issue “was very difficult for us” – it “impacted on people’s hip pockets and some of those of course weren’t very wealthy people”. While he represents an inner city electorate in Sydney, Albanese is selling himself as able to relate to a wide range of people, as well as having held a number of portfolios in government. He was briefly deputy prime minister.

At his news conference following Bowen’s, Albanese said he liked engaging people, whether at the footy ground, in boardrooms, in workplaces, at the local school, at the local pub.

He said he believed in markets, but also in government intervention “because markets don’t have a conscience”.

Albanese ran for leader after the 2013 defeat against Bill Shorten – he won the membership ballot, but lost after his lead was negated by the caucus ballot.

He said he was “very pleased with the level of support that I’ve received up to this point from caucus members and that is certainly not confined to the left. It goes across the factions, across the states”.

Finance spokesman Jim Chalmers, who indicated on Monday he was considering running, is unlikely to do so, given Bowen’s bid.

If Albanese became leader, Chalmers might win the deputy position, which is elected by caucus. He would have choice of portfolio and might choose shadow treasurer, pushing Bowen out of that post.

Read more: Labor’s election loss was not a surprise if you take historical trends into account

Delay on tax cut for some taxpayers

Delivery of the budget tax cut will be delayed for some people because the parliament can’t meet before June 30 to pass the needed legislation.

Scott Morrison finally admitted in a Monday night Sky interview that there wouldn’t be enough time after the writs were returned – on Friday June 28 – to bring the parliament back before the end of the financial year. It is not known when the parliament will meet.

It was made clear by officials during the election campaign that legislation would be needed before the cuts were paid, but Morrison tried to suggest it could be done administratively.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said on Tuesday the legislation would be a first priority for the new parliament. The administrative turnaround by the Tax Office would then be quick.

What this means is that people who put in their return early would not get all the promised offset of up to $1,080 for low and middle income earners immediately. Half, dating from last year’s budget, would come at once. The rest would wait upon the legislation. But it would be paid automatically when the bill was passed, without the need for people to submit a second return. Many people do not put their tax returns in until later in the financial year so would not be affected.

Frydenberg said reports of a delay of up to a year were wrong. But he dodged being pinned down to how long the delay would be.

The government will put its whole tax package to the parliament, which includes later cuts favouring high income earners. But if the Senate resists, the government would almost certainly have to split the bill so it could keep faith with its core election commitment of delivering immediate tax relief.

Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen accused Morrison of lying during the campaign by suggesting the tax relief could be delivered administratively.

In a Tuesday speech, Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe highlighted the tax relief as providing a boost to household disposable income.

“Over the past year, tax paid by households increased at a much faster rate than did income; almost 10%, compared with 3¼% – that is a big difference and it is unusual,” he said.

– ref. Bowen carries baggage into Labor leadership contest – http://theconversation.com/bowen-carries-baggage-into-labor-leadership-contest-117525

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nick Bisley, Head of Humanities and Social Sciences and Professor of International Relations at La Trobe University, La Trobe University

Trump’s long-threatened trade war with China is now a reality. Beijing has met Washington’s sanctions with retaliatory measures as the world’s two most important economies square off.

Since Vice President Mike Pence’s speech to the Hudson Institute in October 2018, American policymakers have increasingly used hardline rhetoric toward China. FBI director Christopher Wray described China as a “whole of society threat” in testimony to Congress.

The view that China’s rise has come at the expense of the US is now seen as conventional wisdom. The evidently warm relationship established by leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping over chocolate cake at Mar-a-Lago in 2017 seems a world away.

Read more: After APEC, US-China tensions leave ‘cooperation’ in the cold

Given this, it is unsurprising that many scholars and analysts have described the emergence of a new Cold War between China and the US (including myself in an essay last year).

The Cold War seems an obvious historical parallel. Like the former Soviet Union, China is also a communist country. And the US and China both have genuinely global interests and the capacity to act on those interests around the world.

But is the deteriorating state of US-China relations likely to tip the world back into the kind of ideological and geopolitical competition that dominated international politics for four decades after the second world war?

The Cold War’s unique dynamics

The Cold War was unlike any great power rivalry that has come before. Most obviously, it was the first geopolitical contest of the nuclear age. Both the US and Soviet Union rapidly developed vast arsenals of the most devastating weapons yet conceived. And their jockeying for power and influence meant that the threat of global annihilation was an ever-present risk.

But it was not just a contest for power – the Cold War was also fight between two evangelical ideologies. Each side believed their respective ideologies – liberal capitalism and Soviet communism – represented universal and fundamentally superior ways of organising society. The mobilisation of resources on a global scale, the nature of these commitments, and the risks they were willing to take was underpinned by the ideological dimensions of the contest.

The Cold War was principally focused on Europe and East Asia, yet it had a global reach. As colonial empires crumbled after 1945, the Soviets and Americans competed for influence among those fighting for their independence and the newly free. This indirect competition, which led at times to proxy wars, and its consequence of dividing the world into duelling blocs was the Cold War’s third main component.

…And a very different current world order

Sino-American relations are at their lowest point since at least 1989 and appear to be entering a level of mutual mistrust and suspicion not seen since the 1970s. Yet in spite of the trade war, explicit calls from US officials to treat China as a full-spectrum threat, and a growing militarisation of their interactions in the western Pacific, this is no Cold War.

More importantly, Sino-American relations are not even on that trajectory. And shrewd statecraft could easily avoid a repeat of the four decades when the world sat on the edge of nuclear apocalypse.

Presently, there is no meaningful ideological dimension to the competition between the two. While China is formally a communist state, its economy is an unusual mix of command, market and statist forms.

Read more: Are China and the US destined for war?

The country also shows little interest in spreading its particular mix of ideas and values globally, although, like all great powers, it is interested in increasing its global influence. China adheres to an orthodox view of sovereignty and evinces no meaningful desire to reshape the political and economic structures of states in its own image.

Equally, the contest between the world’s top two economies has not moved beyond the Asian theatre, geo-politically. Clearly, the US is concerned that Chinese technology may be used on a global scale to advance the country’s interests, hence its very visible campaign to try to contain Huawei’s global reach, but this is a long way from using conscripts to intervene in conflicts in Vietnam and Korea.

And most obviously, the economies of the USSR and US were hermetically sealed from one another. They may as well have been on different planets, such was the sparse nature of their interactions. The US and China could not be more different.

A rivalry for a new age

Today, China presents an increasingly confident face on the global stage. It is increasingly assertive and at times even abrasive in the way it tries to advance its interests.

But it is not yet explicitly contesting the US role in Asia or indeed the world. Rather, it is testing the US-led order to probe for vulnerability and creating new institutions to try to shape the world around it, like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Belt and Road Initiative.

Read more: In the economic power struggle for Asia, Trump and Xi Jinping are switching policies

But it is a long way from a direct confrontation. In part, this is because China’s risk appetite is not that great. But it’s also because Beijing believes it does not need to take such steps to increase its influence in the world.

For its part, the US has moved from its cautious engagement of China to a position in which it is trying to counter Chinese advances and contain its influence. Even with the tariff wars, the two remain profoundly economically interdependent and it will take many years for any real de-coupling of their relationship to occur.

The first great power rivalry of the 21st century has begun. It is not a re-run of the Cold War, however. Instead, this rivalry will look unlike any that has come before it. How acute the competition will be and the consequences for the world order will depend on the price China and the US are willing to pay to undermine and limit the other’s ambition.

– ref. US-China relations are certainly at a low point, but this is not the next Cold War – http://theconversation.com/us-china-relations-are-certainly-at-a-low-point-but-this-is-not-the-next-cold-war-117509

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Barnett, Professor of Statistics; President of the Statistical Society of Australia, Queensland University of Technology

In 2012, US statistician Nate Silver correctly predicted the results of all 50 states in the US presidential election with 100% accuracy.

Compare this with the shock result of the 2016 Trump election, and now the 2019 Australian election, when nearly all Australian opinion polls incorrectly predicted that Bill Shorten’s Labor Party would defeat Scott Morrison’s Coalition on a two-party preferred basis.

How did the pollsters get it so wrong? More importantly, how can we ensure we get a more accurate result next time?

Read more: State of the states: Queensland and Tasmania win it for the Coalition

What opinion polls must do

A good opinion poll must do two difficult things:

1. it must find a large and representative sample of Australian voters
2. it must get those voters to honestly divulge who they will vote for.

If both of these things happen, statistical theory gives us confidence that the poll will be reliable.

To add to the difficulty, we don’t just need good opinion polls we need excellent opinion polls, because even a small error could mean predicting the wrong winner.

For example, if a government ministry wanted to know what percentage of people had done volunteer work in the last year, it probably wouldn’t matter for their purposes if they commissioned two polls which gave estimates of 48% and 52%. But this variation is unacceptable for electoral opinion polls, which need a small margin of error to accurately predict the winner.

How to get a representative sample

A good representative sample will be the whole Australian voting population, but in microcosm. If there are 16 million eligible voters, then a representative sample of 1,600 would mean that each sampled voter represents 1,000 people just like them.

Using relatively small samples is a cheap way to estimate the bigger picture of the election, without resorting to expensive surveys like the Australian same-sex marriage survey.

With a large and representative sample, statistical theory tells us that we will get close to the real result with a narrow margin of error. But the opinion polls in this election consistently predicted the wrong winner, meaning there was something wrong with the samples.

Read more: Coalition wins election but Abbott loses Warringah, plus how the polls got it so wrong

The problem of disruptive technology

Opinion polls are usually implemented by pollsters calling landlines, sometimes calling mobile phones, robo-dialling and internet surveys.

In the recent past when almost every Australian had a landline phone, it was far easier to get a representative sample of voters by randomly calling numbers or randomly sampling from the White Pages. The randomness is key, because it destroys bias by giving every eligible voter the same chance of being surveyed. This in turn avoids favouring particular groups.

Modern methods of communication have spoiled the representativeness of landlines – 36% of Australian adults now use a mobile only. And because older Australians are more likely to keep their landline, this biases any sample that uses landlines alone.

Far more Australians have a mobile phone than a landline – so why not use these instead? One reason is that some people have two mobiles – business and personal – so the poll would over-represent working Australians. And with fewer older people having mobiles, this approach would also over-represent younger Australians.

Even if we had a perfectly representative sample of phone numbers, we can expect a large number of people not to answer or hang up, which creates another bias because the poll then over-represents people with more time and those who are more politically engaged.

How to get honest answers

Opinion polls have been wrong before. Two examples are the 1992 and 2015 elections in the UK, where the polls wrongly predicted a good result for Labour. The post-mortem of these failings came up with the theory of the “Shy Tory factor”, where people were too embarrassed to admit to pollsters that they were voting for the Tories (the Conservative right-wing party).

Plenty of Australians are not embarrassed to tell anyone who they will vote for, but even the proportion of shy voters is small, then they could still derail the accuracy of the poll.

A number of Australian voters have admitted to giving fake answers to telephone polls because they were annoyed by the call. Even a small percent of annoyed people could ruin an otherwise well-designed opinion poll.

Another theory – put forward by Australian Nobel Laureate Brian Schmidt – is that the pollsters listened to each other more than they did the public. This is known as “herding”, where poll results that seemed to far from the norm were shepherded towards a groupthink.

An analysis of the numbers does show a striking lack of variability in the many recent polls.

How to get better polls

Better opinions polls are more expensive because pollsters need to spend more effort getting a representative and honest sample of voters. Some of the quick and easy polls that are currently used are primarily aimed at generating news stories, with accuracy as a secondary goal.

Poll accuracy could be increased by paying people to participate, and paying them more if, as a group, they get the result right. This is an untested idea, but it could create a strong incentive for people share their true intentions.

The same argument could also improve the pollsters’ strategies. That is, create financial rewards for getting things right, or penalties for getting them wrong. However, with shrinking budgets at news outlets to finance polling, there is no reason to believe that this problem is going to fix itself.

Read more: Going up. Monday showed what the market thinks of Morrison

Polling is a difficult job

An opinion poll targets the shifting opinions of an ever-changing population. Voters are often difficult to reach or recalcitrant. Yet much of the population is likely unhappy with the polls. They may never pay heed to polls again, or refuse to participate in them, which will ironically make the pollster’s job even harder.

Election opinion polls are like penalty shoot-outs at a World Cup final: there’s huge pressure to get it right and we remember the big misses most of all. But come the next World Cup we’re back watching the penalties, because nobody has come up with a better system to assess the national mood.

– ref. Here’s how to make opinion polls more representative and honest – http://theconversation.com/heres-how-to-make-opinion-polls-more-representative-and-honest-117405

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marian Sawer, Emeritus Professor, School of Politics and International Relations, Australian National University

Can billionaires buy elections in Australia? In the 2019 election, Clive Palmer demonstrated they can certainly flood the print media, airwaves, social media and billboards with advertising and have an impact on the results through their preferences and negative advertising.

Apart from United Australia Party hype about how it was going to win government, most of the high-profile advertising in the 2019 campaign was negative. There is a longstanding 48-hour ban on political advertising in radio and broadcast media prior to polling day, but advertising on social media is not covered. The very useful Facebook Ad Library showed the kind of horrors being broadcast during the 48-hour blackout.

Read more: Now for the $55 million question: what does Clive Palmer actually want?

The Coalition was running many “death tax” ads on the Thursday and Friday. These were ads cut to show one Labor frontbencher after another saying the words “death tax”, when in fact they were denying a rumour about such a tax. Negativity, or even sheer invention, proved very effective.

By comparison, Labor ads on issues such as childcare or the gender pay gap – as well as its own negative ads aimed at the Coalition’s disunity and climate change policies – appeared to have little impact.

Lack of regulations at federal level

How have we arrived at a place where our elections are awash with paid advertising? Believe it or not, this has been a relatively recent phenomenon.

In 1903, the Labor Party’s manifesto proudly promoted the restrictions that had been placed on campaign expenditure in the Commonwealth Electoral Act the year before:

Elaborate precautions exist to prevent wealthy men practically purchasing seats: the expenditure of a senatorial candidate is limited to £250 and of a candidate for the other House to £100.

These expenditure limits became increasingly obsolete and were not enforced. They were discarded at the federal level after 1980, following a successful challenge to the election of three candidates in the Tasmanian seat of Denison for each having spent more than A$1,500 in the 1979 state election.

From that time, Australia has been notable for the laxity of its regulation of political finance. At the federal level, there are no restrictions on the size or source of donations to political parties, apart from the recent ban on foreign donations. And there are no limits on campaign expenditure or paid advertising, apart from the requirement for authorisation.

Read more: Election explainer: what are the rules governing political advertising?

As a result, industry bodies wishing to fend off government regulation of guns or poker machines or financial advice are free to spend as much as they like on political donations and advertising.

There is also no “truth in advertising” requirement at the federal level, and the Australian Electoral Commission does not have the authority to approve electoral communications for publication. The only requirement in the Commonwealth Electoral Act is for authorisation, including of electronic advertising. Ultimately, it is up to the courts to enforce this, on a case by case basis.

This differs greatly from many countries in Europe, including the UK, Ireland and the Scandinavian countries, which have never allowed such paid political advertising. Two-thirds of European countries limit the amount a candidate can spend on a campaign, including advertising, and 43% limit the amount a party can spend.

When the House of Lords upheld the UK prohibition on political advertising in 2008, it argued the ban was necessary to maintain a level playing field, preventing “well-endowed interests” from using “the power of the purse to give enhanced prominence to their views.”

Read more: Australia trails way behind other nations in regulating political donations

In Australia, the Hawke government tried to stop the arms race over paid political advertising by banning it in 1991 and replacing it with free broadcast time (Political Broadcasts and Political Disclosures Act 1991). But the following year, the High Court in Australian Capital Television Pty Ltd v Commonwealth found that this ban contravened an implied freedom of political communication in the constitution.

This decision put a dampener on reform at the federal level. It is only recently the High Court has changed course to find that burdens on free speech can be legitimate if they serve another democratic purpose, such as political equality.

In the McCloy v NSW case in 2015, the High Court upheld a cap on political donations and a total ban on political donations by property developers, finding the restrictions on freedom of political communication were more than balanced by the benefits of ensuring the integrity of the political system and “equality of opportunity to participate in the exercise of political sovereignty.”

The constitutionality of regulating political donations was reaffirmed by the High Court in April 2019.

The government had passed amendments to the Commonwealth Electoral Act to enable Commonwealth law to override the tighter regulation of political donations at the state or territory level. This provision was overturned by the High Court and Queensland’s ban on developer donations was upheld. This was despite an attempt by the plaintiff, former LNP Queensland President Gary Spence, to argue it restricted freedom of political communication.

These High Court decisions open the way to possible future caps on expenditure and donations at the federal level, which could reduce the torrent of negative political advertising democracy is currently drowning in.

Impacts of unlimited spending on democracy

The lack of restrictions on political expenditure or donations at the federal level has contributed to perceptions that government is run primarily for the benefit of the big end of town. In 2016, 56% of respondents to the Australian Election Study believed this.

In addition, negative advertising further erodes the public’s faith in government. American political scientist Joseph Nye observed more than 20 years ago a relationship between negative advertising and loss of trust in political parties and government. In the Democracy 2025 survey conducted in Australia last year, respondents were asked about possible reforms to rebuild trust in government. It revealed strongest support for limits on political donations and campaign expenditure.

Read more: Facebook videos, targeted texts and Clive Palmer memes: how digital advertising is shaping this election campaign

The laxity of political finance regulation at the federal level also creates loopholes at the state or territory level, where genuine progress has been made in limiting political expenditure by parties, candidates and lobbying groups.

It is equally important that allowing paid political advertising in electronic media drives up the costs of political campaigns and increases dependence on wealthy donors.

Australia could rein in the ever-increasing role of private money in its federal elections. Labor and the Greens are committed to greater transparency for political donations and spending caps on federal campaign expenditure, while the High Court has shown it is now unlikely to strike down reasonable (“proportionate”) regulation of political finance.

Democracy should be about political equality, not about the deep pockets of billionaires.

– ref. After Clive Palmer’s $60 million campaign, limits on political advertising are more important than ever – http://theconversation.com/after-clive-palmers-60-million-campaign-limits-on-political-advertising-are-more-important-than-ever-117099

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joanne Orlando, Researcher: Technology and Learning, Western Sydney University

Imagine you’re a 14-year-old girl on the train on your way home from school, when out of nowhere a “dick pic” appears on your phone. Surprise! You’ve been cyber flashed.

It’s a form of harassment that didn’t exist even a few years ago, and highlights the fast-evolving digital world our teenagers now have to manage (along with all the more regular challenges of nearly being an adult).

Read more: Don’t fall for it: a parent’s guide to protecting your kids from online hoaxes

Cyber flashing involves sending unsolicited obscene images to strangers via AirDrop or Bluetooth on your smartphone.

Unlike old-fashioned flashing, in which the culprit is standing right in front of you, cyber flashing is anonymous. The sender positions themself in a shopping centre, sporting ground, or other public space and sends the photo to anyone within a 3-metre radius – it could be a teenager, an adult or even a 3-year-old holding mum’s phone. The victim will likely search around to identify the sender, but ultimately it is a guessing game; it could be anyone in your field of vision.

Like other online harassment such as posting threatening messages, photos or videos online or repeatedly sending unwanted messages, the aim of cyber flashing is to humiliate the victim, and incite fear. The anonymity of the communication exacerbates this.

In the case of the 14-year-old girl, she would have no opportunity to identify her harasser, to seek justice, or even gain an apology for their actions. This will likely leave her feeling powerless, anxious and potentially fearful of future communications by the harasser.

Digital devices have changed us

Digital devices have massively influenced how, when, where and why we communicate with others. For example, it is almost standard practice now for many of us to send a series of digital messages over the course of the day, recounting where you are and what you are doing. It may be to your partner, friend, or as social media status updates to whoever is interested, and it could result in 10, 20 or even 50+ digital messages every day.

Twenty years ago, this form of communication would have been highly unusual, almost impossible to deliver, and likely considered inappropriate behaviour.

The constantly changing ways we use technology to communicate with anyone, anytime and anywhere, has had a huge impact on the lives of parents and their children as they endeavour to navigate the digital age in a safe and healthy way.

Until recently, parents did not even know they had to guide their children in how to manage cyber flashing.

Outdated thinking doesn’t help

Some public figures recommend confiscating technology as the only way to keep young people safe. Such proposals, however, are unhelpful and unfeasible, and based on outdated thinking. The horse has bolted, and technology use has firmly become a central and defining feature of life today.

Smartphone use is almost ubiquitous for young people (95%), and social media is firmly established as their preferred platform for communicating with others. Solutions to keep young people safe need to acknowledge and build this understanding into solutions, rather than dismiss or ignore the realities of their digital lives.

While adults often interpret social media as negatively affecting the relationships young people form, this is not the consensus among teens. Although 27% of teens concede that social media has led to more bullying, overall spread of rumours, and less meaningful human interactions, 31% consider social media to have a mostly positive influence on their life. Teens emphasise social media makes it easier to communicate with family and friends, to connect with new people, to be self-expressive and to get support from others.

For the most part, however, nearly half (45%) of teens say the effect of social media is neither positive nor negative on them; it is just life as they know it.

Can we expect cyber safety to ease?

New online safety risks emerge because of a range of intertwined factors.

Continual technology innovation, our increasingly skilled use of our devices, and more blurring of our online and offline lives means that new ways to harass and to be harassed will unfortunately continue to emerge.

It’s not just about the technology, however. Harassment (whether digital or not) also boils down to human values. It taps into prejudices and discrimination that relate to, for example, sexuality or gender identity. It can also be connected to personality traits such as impulsivity, low self-control, inability to appropriately express anger and low self-esteem.

Direct comparison between factors influencing cyber bullying compared to school yard bullying is difficult. However, some factors are emerging as more influential on cyber bullying. For example, over controlling parenting can lead to an increase in children engaging in cyber bullying victimisation. A high level of moral disengagement is associated with cyber bullying.

Read more: Kids need to learn about cybersecurity, but teachers only have so much time in the day

Let’s help young people

Our digital lives are still human lives. It’s vital we support young people to feel safe, and able to deal with the ever-changing risks that can come via digital communication.

Adolescence is a time of transition, and media use in children is increasing. This means parental involvement can be particularly influential and important in supporting teens ability to understand and manage online harassment should it occur.

Research consistently shows approximately one in two young people who experience bullying never tell anyone out of fear, embarrassment or a lack of faith in support systems. A strong and supportive parent-teen relationship, based on good and open communication and healthy guidance should be at the heart of any online safety strategy implemented in the home.

This fosters a sense of openness, so that a teen will feel comfortable to tell their parent about being cyber-flashed or other online harassment they may experience. Dismissing teens’ digital lives, trivialising them or being highly judgemental will not.

– ref. Teenagers need our support, not criticism, as they navigate life online – http://theconversation.com/teenagers-need-our-support-not-criticism-as-they-navigate-life-online-116988

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ari Mattes, Lecturer in Media Studies, University of Notre Dame Australia

It’s an axiom that the effectiveness of documentary typically rests on two things: if its subject matter is interesting, and if we more or less believe in the film’s accuracy regarding its representation of reality.

Of course any representation requires framing that reflects the values of the artist. But Australian photojournalist Travis Beard’s documentary Rockabul certainly bears this proposition out. It is concerned with a very interesting subject – “District Unknown,” a heavy metal band forming in war-torn Afghanistan – and the film never allows technical concerns to get in the way of its presentation of people and events.

The film follows a group of young rock and rollers in Kabul as they form the band, rehearse a great deal – in some cases learning to play their instruments for the first time – and begin to gig at underground parties. They then become more publicly recognised (and, in deeply conservative Afghanistan, imperilled) and perform on bigger stages, including the South Asian Bands festival in India in 2012.

They’re not very good musicians, but this doesn’t really matter, and we do see a marked improvement, from terrible at the beginning of the film, to pretty bad by the end. Then again, the individual musicians don’t have 20 years of lessons under their belts, and the band isn’t recorded by Quincy Jones.

Rockabul concurrently follows the efforts of its director Beard – who mentors and manages the band, giving its members a rehearsal space and lending them his gear – as he sets up the Sound Central Music Festival in Kabul, the first of its kind. He appears throughout as filmmaker, facilitator, interviewer, and fellow musician, using his access to resources to assist the band’s development.

The whole thing is, of course, situated in the context of the invasion and occupation of Afghanistan by America and its allies (including Australia), and the attempts of the Taliban to wrest control from the US-supported government.

Life and death stakes

The film opens, for example, with an interview with a Taliban judge, who declares that he would without doubt kill any infidels, delivered to him by Allah, who listened to rock music – let alone played it. Thus the viewer is aware, from the beginning, of the life and death stakes of these characters’ desire to rock.

This is exemplified when, at one stage, the band perform in masks to protect their own and their families’ identities. This is a very different reason for disguising themselves, one suspects, from that of metal bands of the past, like Kiss, and present, like Ghost.

Like many of the most effective documentaries, Rockabul isn’t always pretty. Whereas, for example, Werner Herzog’s documentaries are frequently buoyed by his ineffable style as a filmmaker, and his penchant for hypnotic images and sounds, the energy behind Rockabul clearly goes into capturing as much as possible of the thoughts and worlds of these characters, rather than stylish framing shots or expensive songs for the soundtrack. (It’s notable that, for a film about heavy metal, there are no well known heavy metal songs used – for financial reasons, perhaps.)

There are some problematic elements underpinning the whole project, as Beard acknowledged in a recent Q and A session, concerning the presence in Afghanistan of Americans and American allies, in relation to an imperial war. Indeed Beard pointed out that he is now making another film that looks more critically at the symbiotic relationship, as he put it, between “the war machine, the aid machine and the diplomacy machine” in the country.

His claim that one cannot put everything in a single film is fair enough. But I suspect Rockabul might have been strengthened with a slightly more overtly critically aware approach to the cultural politics of the region at the time.

The film notes, for example, through archival footage, how much of a splash news of the band made internationally and in the US, with a major article, “Amps in Kabul,” appearing in Rolling Stone. But one cannot help but think that this interest is, at least in part, in service to the aims of the American invasion.

A story about some poor kids who love American culture and are repressed by a despotic community and regime is perfect fodder for ideologically sustaining the more brutal forms of military coercion underpinning the invasion. The US mainstream media seemed predictably quick to jump onto this story of the struggle for individual “freedom” against Islamic oppression, whilst remaining, for the most part, conspicuously silent about the US bombing the hell out of the region in the first place.

The very fact that Beard’s music festival was funded by ten different embassies in Afghanistan, as he noted in the Q and A session, is worth closer consideration. An embassy is an offshoot of the power of a country. Embassies attempt to influence, through diplomacy, the relations between the host nation and the home nation in favour of the latter.

The fact that all of these embassies were willing to put a bunch of money behind the festival may show that cultural attaches like supporting artistic projects, but it definitely shows the interest these countries had in spreading American culture and cultural values. As political economist Joseph Nye famously pointed out, “soft power” is always a vital complement of hard power.

This is not a criticism of Beard, the festival or the film itself, and, without doubt, the more people rocking and rolling in the world the better.

In any case, Rockabul is an engaging, low-key documentary that does at least one truly great thing: it reinvigorates the viewer’s belief in the subversive and radical potential of rock and roll. In an era of hyper-consumerism, this is an impressive feat indeed.

Rockabul screenings can be found here.

– ref. Rockabul, a tale of a metal band in Kabul, reinvigorates the radical spirit of rock ‘n’ roll – http://theconversation.com/rockabul-a-tale-of-a-metal-band-in-kabul-reinvigorates-the-radical-spirit-of-rock-n-roll-117403

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Farmer, Researcher, University of Melbourne

Curious Kids is a series for children. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to curiouskids@theconversation.edu.au You might also like the podcast Imagine This, a co-production between ABC KIDS listen and The Conversation, based on Curious Kids.

Why do we sigh? – Sophie, aged 4, East St Kilda, Melbourne.

Dear Sophie,

Thanks for your lovely and excellent question about sighing.

Since you asked a question about sighing, it is probably safe to say that you already know something about breathing. But, for the benefit of everyone else (who might not be an expert like you or me) I am going to talk a little bit about breathing first.

Read more: Curious Kids: what is brain freeze?

The tiny sacks of life

You have two lungs that you use to breathe. Each lung is a stretchy sack, kind of like a balloon, but not empty like a balloon. Inside your lung are millions and millions and millions of tiny sacks called alveoli. These tiny sacks called alveoli are very important.

To keep living, we need a gas called oxygen to be moved out of the air and into our blood. And that’s not all! We need another gas called carbon dioxide to be moved in the opposite direction: from out of your blood and into the air.

For these two things to happen, the air and your blood need to be brought very, very close together. This is exactly what what happens in the tiny sacks called alveoli that fill your lungs. This is just as well! If you don’t get oxygen in and carbon dioxide out, you will die, which is bad.

When you breathe in, the tiny sacks called alveoli (seriously, your lungs are full of ‘em) get filled with air. At the same time, blood (pumped by your heart) flows around the sides of the tiny sacks.

This brings the air and the blood very close together and so allows the gases to move in the right direction (oxygen in, carbon dioxide out).

Moving these gases is essential for survival, which means that breathing is essential for survival, which means the tiny sacks called alveoli are very, very essential for survival indeed.

Read more: Curious Kids: what is a headache? Is it our brain hurting?

Back to sighing

Here’s the thing about the tiny sacks called alveoli: you have so many of them that, actually, you don’t need to use them all at once. When you are sitting quietly, you can get move enough gas by using just some of them.

This is all fine and well, but if you are sitting quietly for a long while, these tiny unused sacks stay unused. And when a sack stays unused for a long time, it tends to collapse in on itself. When the tiny sacks called alveoli that fill your lungs collapse, they can’t be used to move gas in or out of your blood any more, which is bad.

Fortunately, there is a solution: the sigh. A sigh is breath that is deeper than usual, so sighs fill your lungs with more air than a normal breath would.

This means that any tiny sacks (called alveoli) that are not being used get filled up with lovely air when you sigh. This stops them from collapsing and averts the danger! Hooray!

Most of the time, your brain takes care of breathing for you and, fortunately, it takes care of sighing for you too. This means that you don’t need to worry about remembering to sigh.

If you need to worry about remembering anything, Sophie, it’s that you should never stop asking this sort of lovely question. Congratulations: you are now an expert on breathing and sighing.

Read more: Curious Kids: how much does a brain weigh?

Hello, curious kids! Have you got a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to curiouskids@theconversation.edu.au.

Please tell us your name, age and which city you live in. We won’t be able to answer every question but we will do our best.

– ref. Curious Kids: why do we sigh? – http://theconversation.com/curious-kids-why-do-we-sigh-116659

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mihiri Silva, Paediatric dentist and PhD candidate, Murdoch Children’s Research Institute

Curious Kids is a series for children. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to curiouskids@theconversation.edu.au You might also like the podcast Imagine This, a co-production between ABC KIDS listen and The Conversation, based on Curious Kids.

Why do we lose our baby teeth? – Jack, age 8.

Losing your first baby tooth is an important part of growing up.

We need teeth to bite, chomp and chew so that we can enjoy a healthy diet with lots of different types of food. Teeth also help us speak and pronounce tricky words. They help to grow our jaws and face and of course, teeth help us smile.

Because of how much we need them, teeth start to grow even before we are born. We can’t see them at the start because they are growing inside our jaws, under our gums. But by the time we are around six months old, we can start to see the first few teeth coming through.

Different teeth have different uses

Most people will eventually get 20 baby teeth. They are our first set of teeth. They will be replaced by adult teeth as we grow up. The last baby tooth usually falls out at about 12 years of age.

The teeth at the front of the mouth are called incisors, and they have sharp edges for biting (like when we bite into an apple). The really pointy teeth are called canines and we need them to tear off food.

At the back, we have molar teeth. They are big teeth with lots of bumps and grooves to help us chew. Adults also have premolar teeth (but kids do not).

We often don’t notice, but at the same time that our first baby teeth start to fall out, we also get new teeth at the back of our mouth. These are our first adult molar teeth.

By around our sixth birthday, we might start to see and feel some changes in our mouths. Our baby teeth are becoming worn down from all the biting and chewing they have done. We have also grown bigger overall and our jaws and mouths have grown too.

So it’s time for some bigger teeth!

Read more: Curious Kids: How do we get allergic to food?

Teeth have roots too

Teeth stay in the mouth because, like trees, they have roots that hold them in our jaws.

Tooth roots are usually, long and smooth. Front teeth usually have only one root but back teeth can have as many as three roots. When the time is right, our bodies have special cells that slowly eat away the roots of the teeth. As the roots get shorter, the teeth start to become loose. Finally, most of the root disappears and the tooth falls out!

Not long after, a new adult tooth will start to peek through the gap left by the baby tooth.

Adult teeth can look a bit funny at the start – they are usually a bit yellower, can have bumps and grooves and are of course much bigger. They also have much longer roots. Adult teeth are made this way so that they are strong enough to last our entire lives. You’ll be chewing food for many, many decades to come. That’s a lot of food to chew through!

The right teeth for the right job

People get two sets of teeth because this is what works best for the way we eat and grow.

Animals are just the same – they have teeth that match the way they eat and grow. Rats like to use their front teeth to nibble and gnaw at food and so have front teeth that keep growing. Alligators can make new teeth whenever they need and sharks have rows of teeth that they replace all the time. They get a lot more sets of teeth than us.

But people only have two sets of teeth so we have to do our best to look after them by brushing twice a day with toothpaste and avoiding sweet drinks and snacks.

Read more: Curious Kids: How do snakes make an ‘sssssss’ sound with their tongue poking out?

Hello, curious kids! Have you got a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to curiouskids@theconversation.edu.au

Please tell us your name, age and which city you live in. We won’t be able to answer every question but we will do our best.

– ref. Curious Kids: why do we lose our baby teeth? – http://theconversation.com/curious-kids-why-do-we-lose-our-baby-teeth-111911

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emma Beckett, Lecturer (Food Science and Human Nutrition), School of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Newcastle

We choose to spend money on household items based on how they look, feel and taste, and how we think they might make our lives better.

Manufacturers apply nanotechnology – a field of technology that makes use of effects that happen at the nanoscale – to create the properties we want in such items. For example, whiteness in toothpaste, or preventing growth of bacteria in socks.

One nanometre is one billionth of a metre. Chemical and physical interactions at the nanoscale are way smaller than our eyes can see. Medicines, tiny sensors, fast computers and food science are all ways we can put nanotechnology to use.

Read more: Why nanotechnology is more than just a buzzword

But some people are concerned nanoparticles may present health risks. Recently France announced one nanoscale food additive will be banned from 2020 due to a lack of evidence about its safety.

Here’s what we know about nanotechnology in food.

What are nanoparticles?

Nanoparticles are extremely tiny particles. Their external dimensions are smaller than 100 nanometres, or 0.0001 of a millimetre. That’s pretty small!

Not all nanoparticles are the same. The can be made of all kinds of different things – metals like silver and gold, carbon or even clay – and can have different structures and chemistry. These properties ultimately determine how the nanoparticles behave, their functions and whether or not they are safe.

Nanoparticles occur naturally, and can also be manufactured. Naturally occurring nanoparticles can be found in ash, waterways, fine sand and dust, and even biological matter like viruses. When used in medicine, technology or science, nanoparticles are typically manufactured to better control their properties.

The benefits of nanoparticles come from their extremely small sizes. For example, materials can be made stronger, lighter or better electrical conductors. In medicine, nanoparticles can be manufactured to get into difficult-to-reach places in the body. This is useful in the treatment or diagnosis of diseases such as cancer and infections.

But sometimes nanoparticles which you did not intend to ingest get into the body, or small amounts are consumed in products. This leaves some people asking how we know they are safe.

Read more: A guide to the nanotechnology used in the average home

Nanoparticles occur naturally in foods

Firstly, nanoparticles in foods are not new. Nano-sized particles occur naturally in some foods: a good example is milk. Casein micelles in milk are nano-sized spheres made of proteins. By naturally coming together this way, the nutrients in the micelles are more available for us to absorb.

In addition to milk, it is also possible for some food ingredients to naturally assemble into nanoparticle sized units such as micelles. During digestion, our bodies use the bile that comes from our gall bladder to “nanofabricate” the fats we eat into micelles so we can absorb them.

Micelles also allow fats to be mixed more effectively into water – we create micelles when we wash the dishes using detergents.

Nanoparticles can be created during food processing – such as in homogenisation and emulsification, and milling and grinding. They are also shed from metallic cutlery and other cooking instruments over time.

Nanoparticles are in some additives

Common additives like titanium dioxide, a whitening agent, and silicon dioxide, an anticaking agent, can contain nanoparticles. This is because they are added as powders, and some of the powder particles will be nano-sized. These ingredients only make up a small percentage of foods and only a small fraction of them are actually nano-sized.

Titanium dioxide recently made headlines because a study showed it had an effect on bacteria in the guts of mice. This sounds scary, but the effects were seen when mice were given a big dose (about 50mg per kilogram of body weight each day). This is 50 to 25 times the estimated exposure in humans. It was also added to their drinking water, so there was no food around for the particles to bind with through digestion (as is the case when we eat products with nanoparticles in them).

Two reviews commissioned by Food Standards Australia New Zealand in 2015 found current evidence that nanoparticles of titanium dioxide and silicon dioxide are not absorbed better than micro-sized particles (particles a thousand times the size) and that the majority is excreted.

New uses are being explored

Researchers are looking at how nanoparticles might bring new benefits to food. For example, adding nutrients into foods could help us provide better nutrition from processed foods, slow the breakdown of nutrients and help nutrients be absorbed better.

Nano-sized salt and sugar could help make foods healthier. The smaller the particles, the quicker and more easily they can access your taste buds on your tongue, so the less we might need to eat to get that sweet or salty hit. Similarly, using nanoparticles can mean lower levels of additives by helping them mix more easily through products.

Nanoparticles might also be able to extend shelf life, improve safety of foods, and reducing the need for added fats. Testing for toxicity will be an important part of bringing these new technologies to market.

Read more: Nanotechnology could make our food tastier and healthier – but can we stomach it?

But all in all, we have been eating nanoparticles – naturally occurring and in additives – for a long time with no evidence of harm.

– ref. Some of our foods have nano particles in them – should we be worried? – http://theconversation.com/some-of-our-foods-have-nano-particles-in-them-should-we-be-worried-117193

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nick Economou, Senior Lecturer, School of Political and Social Inquiry, Monash University

Our “state of the states” series takes stock of the key issues, seats and policies affecting the vote in each of Australia’s states.

We’ll check in with our expert political analysts around the country every week of the campaign for updates on how it is playing out.

Queensland

Maxine Newlands, Senior Lecturer in Political Science at James Cook University

The Coalition’s emphatic win in Queensland has been the story of the 2019 federal election. The Coalition, with some help from preference votes, took out 23 of the 30 seats – up from 21 seats in 2016.

Shorten spent three years campaigning in north Queensland, with over 20 town hall events, yet in the last five weeks the then Labor leader was seen just a few times in north Queensland.

Marginal Coalition seats have been shored up with an 11.3% swing in Dawson and 10.7% in Capricornia.

Labor took 20 years to win Herbert from the Coalition in 2016, but it’s easily slipped back into Coalition hands. With a 7.6% swing to the Coalition, it could be a long time until Labor holds Herbert again.

The Coalition win in Longman (3.9% swing) chips away at Labor’s Brisbane base, leaving Labor exposed with no seats outside the state capital.

Peter Dutton will begin his seventh term in Dickson, with preferences from United Australia Party (UAP) and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation (PHON) getting him over the line. But a predicted upward swing from 1.7% to 2.1%, still leaves Dickson vulnerable.

The 2019 election will be remembered as an election that pitted the economy against the environment. No parties seemed able to offer policies for both. And a majority of voters apparently prioritised economics over environmental policy in the search for job security.

The Carmichael mine might not be the silver bullet that economists hope for by bringing jobs and reducing youth unemployment, but voters’ desire for big infrastructure projects that bring knock-on community benefits secured the Coalition’s victory.

The coalition’s strategy to promise little, but provide enough detail to offer hope is a tried and tested approach. By contrast, Labor’s consistent policy announcements and change mantra left them open to criticism over higher taxes for retirees and uncertainty on costings for climate change.

The blame game between federal and Queensland Labor has begun. The Adani mine remains the elephant in the room, setting the scene for next year’s Queensland state election.

Read more: Interactive: Everything you need to know about Adani – from cost, environmental impact and jobs to its possible future

Victoria

Nick Economou, Senior Lecturer in the School of Political and Social Inquiry at Monash University

Contrary to general expectation, Victoria has not delivered a government majority to Labor. With more than 75% of the vote counted, the two party swing to Labor is less than 0.5%. The only certain gains for the opposition are the seats of Dunkley and Corangamite, which were already notionally Labor after a redistribution.

To the list of Liberal heroes mentioned by Scott Morrison on election night should be added Michael Sukkar in Deakin and Jason Wood in La Trobe, both of whom defended their potentially vulnerable seats. Sukkar’s performance was particularly noteworthy given the ferocity of the campaign run against him by those angered by his conservative stand on marriage equality, and his contribution to the fate of former Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull. He will probably be rewarded with a ministerial appointment.

Independent Helen Haines has won Indi and the Greens’ Adam Bandt retains Melbourne, but all other non-major party challenges in the lower house contest failed. That includes Julia Banks in Flinders (comfortably won by Liberal Greg Hunt); Julian Burnside in his bid on behalf of the Greens to oust Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong; Jason Ball’s attempt to win Higgins on behalf of the Greens (it is a Liberal retain); and the field of aspirant independents who rolled out in Mallee (won by the National party).

In the Senate, meanwhile, both Labor and Liberal are guaranteed of at least two seats each. The Greens are hovering close to a quota at 11.7% of the vote, and with 1.5% of Animal Justice Party preferences likely to flow through to lead candidate Janet Rice.

Labor’s rather weak primary vote means there won’t be a significant transfer of quota to the Justice Party, so it’s unlikely that Derryn Hinch will be returned. The final seat will be a tussle between the third placed candidate on the Liberal ticket, David Van, and a right-of-centre minor party candidate that could still be the United Australia Party, depending on how preferences flow.

The expectation of a better result for Labor was based on opinion polling that measured two party support for the opposition at 54%. Currently the two party vote result is 52.2% – a strong level of support for Labor, but clearly insufficient to result in a significant transfer of seats. This was, indeed, a quite typically Victorian outcome.

Tasmania

Richard Eccleston is Director of the Institute for the Study of Social Change at the University of Tasmania

Tasmania, and the northern seats of Bass and Braddon, were always going to be key elements of a Coalition victory, and so it proved to be.

Indeed, Tasmania is a microcosm of the national election result, with inner urban electorates becoming more progressive, while regional seats have swung to the Coalition. Across the board support for independents, minor parties and the informal vote was up, reflecting broad-based voter disillusionment.

It seems clear Labor’s Justine Keay will lose the North West seat of Braddon, having suffered a 5% two-party preferred swing to Liberal challenger and new member Gavin Pearce. There was, however, a 4% swing against the Liberals on the primary vote with Liberal-aligned independent Craig Brakey securing 11%.

Bass is again on a knife edge.

Sitting Labor member Ross Hart is trailing his Liberal challenger Brigid Archer by less than 500 votes, with about 12,000 pre-poll votes to count. The final result in Bass may determine whether the Coalition can govern in its own right or whether it has to rely on the likes of the Katter Australia Party.

It’s clear that Bass and Braddon continue to be volatile and marginal and will be a focus of future federal campaigns.

Any hopes the Liberals had of securing the rural seat of Lyons were dashed with the resignation of their candidate Jessica Whelan midway through the campaign. Labor’s Brian Mitchell was returned with a small swing, as was sitting member Julie Collins in Franklin.

In the Hobart-based seat of Clark, independent Andrew Wilkie secured over 50% of the primary vote, while the combined Liberal and Labor vote was just 37%. The fact that almost two thirds of voters in the state capital didn’t vote for either of the major parties highlights the fundamental challenges facing our political parties and system of government more generally.

Election night coverage inevitably focuses on the lower house, but the composition of the Senate will have a big impact on how Scott Morrison governs. In the Tasmanian Senate race, it appears that the Liberals and Labor will each secure two seats. The Greens Nick McKim will also be returned, while Jacquie Lambie is best placed to win the final seat and resume her colourful political career.

Read more: Key challenges for the re-elected Coalition government: our experts respond

New South Wales

Stewart Jackson, Lecturer in the Department of Government and International Relations at the University of Sydney

Bill Shorten and the Labor Party went into the 2019 election with some expectation of reversing the decline in their vote in NSW. They hoped to capture at least three seats (Gilmore, Reid and Banks), with the chance of another in Page, while retaining marginal seats such as Macquarie and Lindsay.

By the end of election night it was clear that things had not gone to plan. While Gilmore went to Labor’s Fiona Phillips, the party failed to capture Reid and Banks. And Lindsay moved in the other direction, falling to the Liberal’s Melissa McIntosh.

It’s also clear that the supposed surge in support for minor parties and independents didn’t materialise. While Zali Steggall won the seat of Warringah – ending Tony Abbott’s 25-year hold on the seat – hers was an isolated victory. Kerryn Phelps lost narrowly to Dave Sharma, and Kevin Mack came up well short in Farrer. Adam Blakester, in New England, was unable to make any inroads on Barnaby Joyce’s hold on the seat, with Joyce even enjoying a small swing in his favour on primary votes.

Former Independent MP Rob Oakeshott slipped backwards in Cowper, a seat that he came close to winning in 2016, and which he partially covered while he was MP for Lyne between 2008 and 2013. The only real challenge from a minor party candidate came from One Nation’s Stuart Bonds against Labor’s Joel Fitzgibbon in the seat of Hunter. Bonds’ 22%, directed to the National’s Josh Angus, nearly deprived the ALP of one of its key frontbenchers.

The key lesson then from NSW is that not much has changed. The Berejiklian government’s narrow return in March might have been a portent for what NSW voters were thinking – and certainly there was no joy for the ALP to be found there.

South Australia

Rob Manwaring, Senior Lecturer in Politics and Public Policy at Flinders University

There was a good deal of movement among South Australian voters, but it looks like no seats will change hands at all in the state. Of the ten seats, the Liberals have three, the ALP five, and the Centre Alliance have held onto the seat of Mayo. On current counting, the most marginal seat – Boothby – looks like a Liberal retain, held by Nicolle Flint, but only on the slimmest of margins.

In South Australia, the Coalition scored a strong-ish primary vote of 40.6% (SA) compared to 41.4% (national). In contrast, the ALP’s primary vote in the state was 35.9% (SA) compared to 33.9% (national).

Both parties have seen a swing towards them in SA, although the swing is slightly greater to the Liberals. On the counting so far, the 2016 Centre Alliance votes seem to have disproportionately favoured the Liberals, rather than the ALP. Given that the Centre Alliance campaigned against Labour’s “retiree tax”, and Sharkie emphasised her “non-Labor” seat, it appears their “centre” is moderately more right than left.

At this stage, at least two seats in the Senate remain unclear, but with “likely” predictions. The Liberals and Labor have picked up the first four spots between them (two Liberal, two Labor). Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young looks likely to have taken the fifth spot, and remarkably, the Liberals might take the final sixth spot off the hands off One Nation. Here, the Centre Alliance have appeared to have lost out. The main issue is that by the next federal election, most of the seats will be even “safer”.

Read more: Labor’s election loss was not a surprise if you take historical trends into account

Western Australia

Ian Cook, Senior Lecturer of Australian Politics at Murdoch University

Looking at the Western Australian results for the House of Representatives on the ABC website reminds you of the “red” (Republican) and “blue” (Democrat) states of US politics – although the meaning of the colours is more or less the opposite here.

And when you look at it, Western Australia is a blue, that is Liberal, state.

If, as most people expect, Anne Aly wins Cowan, Labor will continue to hold only five of the 16 lower house seats in WA. While most Liberal candidates in WA increased their margins, Liberal candidates in what looked like vulnerable Liberal-held seats either increased their margins or suffered only minor swings against them. (The Nationals still don’t hold a lower house seat in WA.)

Of the four Liberal-held seats everyone was watching, the Liberals’ now hold Halsuck by a margin of 4.6% (up from 2.1%), and Pearce by 6.8% (up from 3.6%). The Liberals’ margin fell in Swan from 3.6% to 1.7%, and in Stirling from 6.1% to 5.1%. But 5.1% is still a lot.

The upshot is that two of the four seats that were within Labor’s reach in 2019 are now close-to out of reach (Hasluck) or, subject to some disaster, completely out of reach (Pearce). The seat that was furthest out of reach (Stirling) is marginally closer to within reach, but is still a stretch for Labor. This leaves only one of the four seats that were within Labor’s reach still within its reach at the next election (Swan). (No Liberal-held seat has slipped into the marginal category.)

That’s going to make it hard to convince anyone that WA is crucial to an election result when there is only one seat in play in the state.

During elections to come, Western Australians will talk wistfully of that time when the those folk over East cared. When you couldn’t turn around, but to find one of the leaders or some other major party figure at your elbow, debating and throwing money around with abandon. Ah, those were the days…

– ref. State of the states: Queensland and Tasmania win it for the Coalition – http://theconversation.com/state-of-the-states-queensland-and-tasmania-win-it-for-the-coalition-117398

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Akhteruz Zaman, Lecturer, Massey University

According to the United Nations, more people live in a country other than their place of birth today than ever before.

The 2017 migration statistics show that about 34 people out of every 1,000 lived away from their place of birth. This number was over 31 in 2010, and 28 in 2000.

Although the number of migrants is expected to grow, a clear understanding of contemporary migration remains a challenge.

Defining who is a migrant

This challenge was on display at a recent meeting where a group of South Asian journalists, academics and activists gathered to address the core issue of migration.

Officially, the number of migrants globally reached 258 million in 2017, compared to about 173 million in 2000, which represents an increase of 49%. But it remains difficult to determine with reasonable clarity who is a migrant and who is not. The multiple identities of people on the move complicate migration statistics and generate controversy.

One of the speakers, Chris Lowenstein-Lom from the International Organisation of Migration (IOM), presented an overview of migration scenarios in South Asia to highlight the sheer number of migrants in the region, both internally and internationally. Many participants questioned the validity of the figures.

Journalists raised questions about the migration data gathered by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) and IOM. The figures either contradicted their lived experience (for example, the number of Indian-origin people living in Pakistan, and vice versa) or overlooked the historical context of certain migrants (for example those of Bangladeshi-origin in India).

The IOM representative’s insistence on his organisation’s goal of “safe, regular and orderly” movement of people across borders resonated with other participants. They emphasised that improving data quality is important for achieving safe passage of migrants.

Difficulties with migration data

Concerns about accuracy and clarity of migration statistics were raised concerning both data collection methods and interpretation. For example, the ranking of countries by the number of migrants shifts dramatically with a change in definition.

The highest number of immigrants (over 48 million) live in the United States, which constitutes 15% of the country’s population. However, the highest proportion of immigrants to a population (87%) live in the United Arab Emirates, which is only eight million in number. The highest number of migrants (nearly 16 million) originate from India, which is only 1.2% of the country’s population. But the highest proportion of migrants to a country’s population (45.6%) is in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is only two million.

Read more: Which countries have the most immigrants?

Any statistical generalisation about migrants requires significant qualification. Political perspectives on who is or is not a bona fide migrant vary significantly between countries. As a result, the figures produced to represent certain sections of the migrant population can become cloudy or even opaque.

For example, many Indian politicians label the Bangla-speaking Muslim population in northeast India as migrants from Bangladesh. But from the Bangladeshi perspective, most of these people can hardly be considered as such because they had lived in their current location since well before the state of Bangladesh was created in 1971.

Similarly, in the early stage of the 2017 influx of Rohingya people to Bangladesh, this definitional opacity created confusion about their status. Were they returnees, refugees or infiltrators? This lack of clarity in legal status has the potential to render a vast number of people stateless.

On the other hand, the refugee status of the Afghani people in Pakistan has been relatively clear to many sides, even though the identity of a specific individual can still be problematic.

Challenge to report on migration

These differences create a challenge for South Asian journalists to report accurately on migration issues.

Consider the following figures: According to the UN DESA 2017 estimate, 33.5 million people moved out of five South Asian countries (Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) while 11.7 million people lived in these countries as migrants.

The largest number of migrants in South Asia were from neighbouring countries, such as from Myanmar to Bangladesh (42% of the total 2.2 million immigrants in the country), from Afghanistan to Pakistan (1.4 million out of the total 3.4 million), and from Pakistan and Bangladesh to India (together, 81% of the total 5.2 million immigrants).

According to this estimate, about 60% of the 5.2 million migrants in India were from Bangladesh. But this estimate was based mainly on population data produced by India. Bangladeshi officials and experts had reservations about this figure because, they claimed, the historical dimension mentioned above had been overlooked in its calculation.

Consequences of data opacity

One can easily imagine the difficulties faced by journalists in busy newsrooms with limited resources. They need to report on complex migration issues and are expected to report them accurately, without a clear definition about who is and is not a migrant. Would you label Rohingya people in Bangladesh as “returnees”, following the Myanmar authorities? Or would you use the “infiltrator” description, as Bangladeshi officials initially identified them?

Some of this confusion may be clarified over time, but others continue to bug journalists and other commentators. The lack of a clear definition exists not only in South Asia.

Despite the well-founded criticisms levelled against the UN data on migration, they remain the most widely used set of figures globally. Other organisations and mechanisms of data distribution, such as IOM or the Migration Data Portal also use them.

An important characteristic of the data set is its origin. They are mainly produced through official population censuses by the respective member states, using public money. Everyone has a stake in improving the quality of these data for a better understanding of the complexity of South Asian and global migration.

– ref. Migration is a growing issue, but it remains a challenge to define who actually is a migrant – http://theconversation.com/migration-is-a-growing-issue-but-it-remains-a-challenge-to-define-who-actually-is-a-migrant-114443

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alan Pearce, Associate Professor, School of Allied Health, La Trobe University

Concussion is a temporary disturbance in brain function following an impact to the head. It can also occur after a blow to the body, if the force is transmitted to the head.

Most people associate concussion with sports but they can occur anywhere, even at work or school.

There are many signs and symptoms of concussion, which may present differently between individuals. These include headaches, nausea, vomiting, slurred speech, dizziness, temporary loss of memory, and inability to focus. Loss of consciousness only occurs in around 10% of concussions.

Most people with concussions recover relatively quickly. Around 90% will recover within several days to a couple of weeks.

But sometimes symptoms continue beyond a couple of weeks. When symptoms persist beyond three months, the person may be diagnosed as having persistent post-concussion symptoms.

Read more: How injuries change our brain and how we can help it recover

Rest is not always best

We don’t know exactly how common concussions are, because they’re under-reported. Some people don’t think they are a serious injury, so don’t seek treatment, while others mask their injury because they don’t want to be seen as weak.

The World Health Organisation classifies concussion, which is a type of traumatic brain injury, as a critical public health issue.

Complete physical and mental rest used to be recommended after a concussion. Since 2017, however, the concussion treatment guidelines have evolved to reflect the science.

While rest in the immediate 24-48 hours after a concussion is still advised, patients are now encouraged to undertake low-intensity exercise (such as walking, light jogging, or stationary cycling) and light mental stimulation (such as work or study) over the following days.

Recovery is individual, but the intensity of physical and mental activity should gradually increase over time and should not exacerbate or worsen the symptoms.

Persistent symptoms

Formerly known as post-concussion syndrome, persistent post-concussion symptoms occur in around 1-10% those who have suffered a concussion. The exact prevalence is unknown due to methodological differences between studies and how persistent post-concussion symptoms are defined within these studies.

As with concussion, persistent post-concussion symptoms vary among individuals but may include headaches, balance problems, light or noise sensitivity, anxiety and depression.

Read more: Sports coaches need to be educated about concussion to keep players safe on the field

We still don’t know why some people’s symptoms persist for many months, sometimes even years.

But we suspect psychology may play a role. While the evidence is limited, early psychological intervention for those with ongoing symptoms, which involves educating the person on why they are feeling this way, has been shown to be effective at reducing the anxiety and depression that accompany persistent post-concussion symptoms.

Despite psychological support, some express continued physical symptoms, such as headaches, balance problems, and light/noise sensitivity; reflecting possible changes or abnormalities in the brain.

Fatigue, both mental and physical, is common in people with persistent post-concussion symptoms, but is often overlooked, despite it significantly impacting on quality of life.

What can measures of fatigue tell us?

Our new research suggests people with persistent post-concussion symptoms may have ongoing problems with fatigue and cognitive function because of changes to the way information is transmitted to and from their brain.

We used transcranial magnetic stimulation, a non-invasive brain stimulation technique, to measure participants’ brain function and neural processing.

When compared to both age-matched controls, as well as a group of people who have recovered from a previous concussion, we found people with persistent post-concussion symptoms were slower to complete the set activities – and their outcomes were more varied.

We have previously compared brain responses via this method in retired Australian Rules and Rugby league players and found abnormal responses compared to other people of the same age with no history of head trauma.

The next stage of our research is to better understand who is vulnerable to persistent post-concussion symptoms and how the condition can be treated.

We understand how to diagnose and treat concussion in the short term, but we’re yet to uncover how to best assist people with persistent post-concussion symptoms to return to leading productive lives.

Read more: Preventing kids’ concussion is about duty of care, not cotton wool

– ref. For an unlucky 10% of people with concussion, the symptoms may be long-lasting – http://theconversation.com/for-an-unlucky-10-of-people-with-concussion-the-symptoms-may-be-long-lasting-116825

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Pep Canadell, Chief research scientist, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere; and Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIRO

Discussions on how to address climate change have focused, very appropriately, on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, particularly those of carbon dioxide, the major contributor to climate change and a long-lived greenhouse gas. Reducing emissions should remain the paramount climate goal.

However, greenhouse gas emissions have been increasing now for two centuries. Damage to the atmosphere is already profound enough that reducing emissions alone won’t be enough to avoid effects like extreme weather and changing weather patterns.

In a paper published today in Nature Sustainability, we propose a new technique to clean the atmosphere of the second most powerful greenhouse gas people produce: methane. The technique could restore the concentration of methane to levels found before the Industrial Revolution, and in doing so, reduce global warming by one-sixth.

Our new technique sounds paradoxical at first: turning methane into carbon dioxide. It’s a concept at this stage, and won’t be cheap, but it would add to the tool kit needed to tackle climate change.

The methane menace

After carbon dioxide, methane is the second most important greenhouse gas leading to human-induced climate change. Methane packs a climate punch: it is 84 times more powerful than carbon dioxide in warming the planet over the first 20 years of its molecular life.

Read more: Methane is a potent pollutant – let’s keep it out of the atmosphere

Methane emissions from human activities are now larger than all natural sources combined. Agriculture and energy production generate most of them, including emissions from cattle, rice paddies and oil and gas wells.

The result is methane concentrations in the atmosphere have increased by 150% from pre-industrial times, and continue to grow. Finding ways to reduce or remove methane will therefore have an outsize and fast-acting effect in the fight against climate change.

What we propose

The single biggest challenge for removing methane from the atmosphere is its low concentration, only about 2 parts per million. In contrast, carbon dioxide is now at 415 parts per million, roughly 200 times higher. Both gases are much more diluted in air than when found in the exhaust of a car or in a cow’s burp, and both would be better served by keeping them out of the atmosphere to start with.

Nonetheless, emissions continue. What if we could capture the methane after its release and convert it into something less damaging to climate?

Read more: What is a pre-industrial climate and why does it matter?

That is why our paper proposes removing all methane in the atmosphere produced by human activities – by oxidising it to carbon dioxide. Such an approach has not been proposed before: previously, all removal techniques have only been applied to carbon dioxide.

This is the equivalent of turning 3.2 billion tonnes of methane into 8.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (equivalent to several months of global emissions). The surprising aspect to this trade is that it would reduce global warming by 15%, because methane is so much more warming than carbon dioxide.

This reaction yields energy rather than requires it. It does require a catalyst, though, such as a metal, that converts methane from the air and turns it into carbon dioxide.

One fit-for-purpose family of catalysts are zeolites. They are crystalline materials that consist of aluminum, silicon and oxygen, with a very porous molecular structure that can act as a sponge to soak up methane.

They are well known to industrial researchers trying to oxidise methane to methanol, a valuable chemical feedstock.

We envision arrays of electric fans powered by renewable energy to force large volumes of air into chambers, where the catalyst is exposed to air. The catalyst is then heated in oxygen to form and release CO₂. Such arrays of fans could be placed anywhere where renewable energy – and enough space – is available.

We calculate that with removal costs per tonne of CO₂ rising quickly from US$50 to US$500 or more this century, consistent with mitigation scenarios that keep global warming below 2℃, this technique could be economically feasible and even profitable.

We won’t know for sure, though, until future research highlights the precise chemistry and industrial infrastructure needed.

Beyond the clean-up we propose here, methane removal and atmospheric restoration could be an extra tool in humanity’s belt as we aim for stringent climate targets, while providing new economic opportunities.

Read more: Why methane should be treated differently compared to long-lived greenhouse gases

Future research and development will determine the technical and economic feasibility of methane removal. Even if successful, methane- and other carbon-removal technologies are no substitute for strong and rapid emissions reductions if we are to avoid the worst impacts of global warming.

– ref. Turning methane into carbon dioxide could help us fight climate change – http://theconversation.com/turning-methane-into-carbon-dioxide-could-help-us-fight-climate-change-117317

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rajshri Roy, Lecturer in Nutrition and Dietetics, University of Auckland

Students typically gain weight in their first year of university. There are expressions to reflect this knowledge, such as the “freshman 15” in North America (which assumes students gain 15 pounds, or around 8kg) and “freshman fatties” or “fresher five” in Australia and New Zealand.

Studies have confirmed the weight gain as fact, although the amount gained is, on average, lower than rumoured – university students can gain up to 4kg in their first year. Reasons for the weight gain include changes in lifestyle, poor physical activity and unhealthy dietary behaviours – particularly food choices and stress or comfort eating.

Most university students are young adults (aged 18-35) who spend a lot of time on campus. Young adults may be particularly vulnerable to features of the university food environment, such as the cost and portion size of food, as they usually have lower disposable incomes.

Studies also show young adults tend to have a higher intake of energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods and drinks than older adults. This includes sugary soft drinks, fried potatoes, meat pies and savoury pastries, pizza, crisps and confectionery.

Why are universities responsible?

Obesity is a public health issues with two-thirds of Australian adults being obese or overweight. There is also a strong association between healthy eating and better mental-health outcomes and well-being.

Our recently published study of food outlets in six campuses of a large university found healthy food was less available, accessible and promoted. It also cost more than unhealthy food. Similar studies have found much the same thing.

The majority of staff and students who completed a survey (79%) in our study had bought food and drinks on campus. Their food choices were determined by value for money, taste and the food’s health value. Staff and students suggested increasing the value for money of food and providing healthier options.

Universities have a responsibility to provide a food environment where young adults can make healthier choices. Universities should also be encouraging students to eat and be healthier.

Read more: Want to improve your mood? It’s time to ditch the junk food

A study that looked at trials to improve healthy eating among university students across the US and Europe found effective interventions included increasing the availability of healthy food choices and making healthy food options more prominent.

Here are five things universities can do to help students eat better.

1. Increase the availability of healthy food choices

Research shows people eat what is available. So, modifying the foods available to young adults can improve their dietary behaviour.

Interventions that have been successful in improving student dietary behaviour include:

• having vending machines with no sugary drinks
• making self-serve tap water available with all meals
• decreasing the portion size of unhealthy foods. This could include offering half-size or mini-size serves of meals, snacks and drinks or halving the portion sizes of hot chips.

2. Educate consumers about healthy food choices

Studies that have looked at factors that influence dietary behaviour changes encourage a combination of education and an increased availability of healthy foods.

Our study found staff and students want healthy foods to be available on campus. But it also found the healthier snacks such as nuts, fruits and muesli or cereal bars were rarely consumed.

One way to help consumers choose healthier options is to promote healthy food and drinks by indicating their energy content, as well as adding labels to highlight which are better for you. Promoting healthier options on menus, boards and labels, and not promoting the less healthy items, such as deep-fried foods or sugary drinks, has been effective in universities.

3. Reduce the price of healthy foods

A number of studies have been conducted in the workplace and school environments.

These show increasing the price of unhealthy foods by 10% and reducing the price of healthy foods by 10% improves people’s eating habits. Such price reductions and increases could be a viable solution to the on-campus food environment.

Incentives also improve dietary behaviour. These can come in the form of including fruit, vegetable or salad items in the cost of every meal and snack, and/or including healthier items in meal deals.

4. Put healthier foods in a prominent place

A recent review of several studies that evaluated health-promotion programs in workplaces found the placement of fruit, vegetables and fatty foods in prominent locations increases the likelihood of people buying them.

Read more: Choosing healthy food: your surroundings can help or hinder your dining choices

Placing healthier items in visible areas can include putting a fruit bowl next to the cash register, placing free water stations throughout the campus and placing healthier food options at eye level in fridges and vending machines.

5. Have healthy guidelines for catering at university events

Universities should seek the expertise of nutrition academics to develop guidelines that can assist caterers, staff and students to choose and serve healthier food and beverages at university events. Catering guidelines are available for workplaces in states such as Victoria. They are evidence-based and are available online for all workplaces including universities.

Every university should have access to similar guidelines, which can comprise checklists for caterers, suggested menu items and nutrition tips of event organisers.

– ref. First-year uni can add 4kg to your weight. Here’s how universities can scale that back – http://theconversation.com/first-year-uni-can-add-4kg-to-your-weight-heres-how-universities-can-scale-that-back-115922

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sudipta Sen, Professor of History, University of California, Davis

For centuries many millions of Hindus have gathered at the confluence of the rivers Ganges, Yamuna and Sarswati in northern India for the festival of Kumbh Mela. Their pilgrimage, which ends with a sacred bath in the Ganges, takes them through the historic city of Allahabad.

Allahabad is no longer on the map of India. In October 2018, officials of the ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) changed its name to Prayagraj. Allahabad was founded by the Mughals, Muslim rulers from Central Asia who governed India from the 16th to the 19th centuries. This name change emphasises the primacy of the Hindu gathering over the city’s Mughal heritage.

This renaming is part of a growing trend in the lead-up to India’s current general election, which is expected to return the BJP government. To appeal to its voter base of Hindu nationalists, the BJP is attempting to erase India’s Mughal legacy both from the landscape and from the history books.

Read more: India’s elections will be the largest in world history

India and the Mughals

The Mughals had a more than 300-year presence on the subcontinent and exerted a significant influence on Indian art, architecture, language and cuisine.

Allahabad’s Mughal history begins with the Emperor Akbar (1542-1605). Akbar was struck by the natural setting and serenity of Prayag and commissioned the old settlements on either side of the Ganges and their adjoining villages to erect a new city. He named it Illahabas, adding the Hindustani word basa (home or abode) to ilahi, the Arabic word for “divine”.

Akbar secured the city with an imposing fort overlooking the sacred waterway and put an end to the long-established practice of ritual suicide by penitent Hindus. They would typically jump into a well or into the torrents of the river from a giant and auspicious banyan tree. The tree was now placed inside the fort in a chamber that became known as the Patalpuri Temple, where Hindu pilgrims continued to offer their devotions.

During the reign of Akbar’s grandson, Shah Jahan, best known for building the Taj Mahal, the city became popularly known as Allahabad.

The rise of Hindu nationalism

The campaign to rename Allahabad was led by the Hindu priest and activist Yogi Adityanath, who rose to fame as the founder of a militant Hindu youth-wing group. Adityanath is now chief minister of Uttar Pradesh (UP), India’s most populous northern state.

As one of the most outspoken members of the ruling party, he has repeatedly indulged in vitriol against religious minorities, especially Muslims. According to Adityanath, the identity, history and traditions of India must be salvaged from the taint of alien, Muslim invaders.

The rechristening of Allahabad reflects a strident demand of Hindu militants at the helm of Indian politics to reclaim towns, streets, airports and railway stations which are seen as reminders of India’s “Muslim” past. These calls have grown louder and more insistent during Narendra Modi’s tenure as prime minister and leader of the BJP.

Read more: Why giant statues of Hindu gods and leaders are making Muslims in India nervous

Rewriting history

Another notable case is the recent renaming of the British-era railway junction of Mughalsarai. The word sarai denotes a rest house or inn. Mughalsarai, less than 20km from the sacred Indian city of Varanasi, is one of the busiest railway yards in the country. It is located along the historic Grand Trunk Road, one of the oldest roads in Asia, which connects Northern India to Central Asia.

The Indian government’s nod to the proposal to rename the station came, again, from Adityanath who wanted to claim it in the name of Deendayal Upadhyaya (1916 –1968). Upadhyaya, a leader of the Jan Sangh Party, was an early ideologue of Rashtrya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the parent organisation of the BJP.

The move led to an uproar in the Rajya Sabha, the upper house of the Indian parliament. Opponents of this proposal argued that Upadhyaya was not a “freedom fighter” or a truly national figure. Other critics see this move to commemorate an early proponent of right-wing Hindu nationalism as the BJP’s attempt to elevate its leaders to national prominence.

In the popular imagination, the early leaders of the Congress Party (the BJP’s main opposition) are still seen as the key architects of India’s freedom struggle. The memory of Congress leaders such as Mahatma Gandhi and Jawarhalal Nehru is honoured throughout India in the form of public monuments and landmarks. The BJP’s move to elevate Upadhyaya is an attempt to insert one of the founders of its political creed into the public memory of India’s independence struggle.

Read more: India Tomorrow part 2: the politics of Hindu nationalism

From decolonisation to erasure

What we are witnessing is not simply a facile attempt by a majoritarian government to strip facets of the popular memory of the northern Indian plains and its shared, historical landscape. It is also the extension of a patriotic animus once directed at the historic markers of the British colonial era that found recompense and solace in changing place names such as Bombay to Mumbai and Madras to Chennai.

The new dispensation targeting places like Allahabad and Mughalserai sends clear signals to multitudes of the Indian nation that, much like the British, the Mughals who shaped more than 300 years of Indian history were also outsiders and should not feature in the story of India’s one true national heritage.

– ref. Tampering with history: how India’s ruling party is erasing the Muslim heritage of the nation’s cities – http://theconversation.com/tampering-with-history-how-indias-ruling-party-is-erasing-the-muslim-heritage-of-the-nations-cities-116160

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Humphery-Jenner, Associate Professor of Finance, UNSW

The coalition’s shock victory pushed up the S&P ASX 200 1.7%. The ASX 200 measures the price of Australia’s 200 biggest public companies. The major banks surged by much more – Westpac climbed 9.2%.

All of the polls leading up to the election had Labor ahead, with Labor apparently widening its lead in the final few days.

Punters placing bets also overwhelmingly favoured Labor. Sportsbet was so confident of a Labor victory, it paid out bets on Labor early.

Which means the market jumped in surprise first thing on Monday.

It had been expecting a Shorten victory, and had to suddenly reprice after discovering it had been a Morrison victory.

It didn’t jump for other reasons

It’s pretty clear that the jump didn’t reflect anything else, for two reasons:

• it is surprises that move markets, because everything else is priced in, and the coalition victory was just about the only surprise over the weekend

• we are able to compare the ASX movements with those on other markets ahead of it opening. The ASX normally follows other markets unless there is a clear local reason to do otherwise. In this case, the related market indexes in the United States, Britain and Canada had all fallen in their most recent sessions before the ASX opened. By contrast, the ASX indexes jumped sharply, suggesting a very strong positive reaction to only big piece of local news around on the day

Others down, Australia up

Why such a strong reaction?

It’s hard to be sure, and different government policies affect different industries differently. But there are common threads:

Property effects: Labor’s capital gains tax and negative gearing tax policies might have hurt property prices.

The prospect of prices somewhat stronger than they might have been might help arrest the decline in construction which might help generate employment, which might boost economic growth. Stronger prices bolster consumer confidence and support spending. They can also support it directly as people tap into equity from their homes.

Tax factors: The market generally reacts well to tax cuts. This was the case in the US as Trump’s tax cuts became increasingly likely. This is due in part to the expectation that they would boost the economy. The market generally dislikes tax increases. While it is not clear whether the Coalition’s promised longer-term tax cuts will materialise, they have plans for them that Labor didn’t.

Labor’s dividend imputation policy would have harmed retirees’ incomes. With it off the table they can spend and hold shares had they had before.

Banking and finance: The coalition is generally seen as more concilliatory towards the banking sector, being reticent to impose major penalties following the royal commission, and disinclined to commence it to begin with. The share price of big four banks increased significantly: from 6.27% for the Commonwealth through to 9.21% for Westpac.

Mining and energy: Labor was perceived as hostile to mining and resource companies. Several recorded strong price gains. Its seeming reluctance to acknowledge the costs of its climate change policies can’t have helped.

We can’t know for sure

Other factors might include the Coalition’s approach to infrastructure and to unions, which are generally business friendly.

Often markets react to what they think markets will do, rather than to anything real. But it’s fair to say that, to start with, they are feeling better.

– ref. Going up. Monday showed what the market thinks of Morrison – http://theconversation.com/going-up-monday-showed-what-the-market-thinks-of-morrison-117396

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kevin Davis, Professor of Finance, University of Melbourne

Will the banking services royal commission have a lasting effect of improving the banking and financial sector? The answer is “no”. A temporary change is apparent, but the problems lie deeper than those addressed by the royal commissioner.

The worldwide pervasiveness of financial sector misconduct is an indication.

This is not a criticism of the Royal Commission as such. It had a limited mandate and limited time, although its approach of focusing on Australian case studies further limited its scope. And a broader investigation of economic and social underpinnings of financial sector misconduct would have required a different sort of Inquiry.

It’ll be hard to act on the report we had

Even then, any recommendations for fundamental changes to financial sector structure and activities needed to inhibit misbehaviour would have to run the gauntlet of gaining political support in the face of vested interests.

The response to, and government capitulation on, the Hayne recommendation regarding mortgage broking fees starkly illustrates the point.

Why will the recommendations not be a lasting solution? An important reason is that the royal commission interpreted “behaviour consistent with community standards” in a limited way to refer to situations in which customers were actually harmed.

But much of community angst over financial sector conduct relates to the broader use of market power and superior knowledge to extract an “unfair” share of the benefits from transactions with customers.

And it missed the broader problem…

Customers don’t get a fair share of the benefits from transactions, competition doesn’t work to make sure they do, and customers are often unaware that they have been exploited.

Why is it happening? The answer lies partly in this comment of Royal Commissioner Kenneth Hayne on page 54 of his interim report:

Much if not all of the conduct identified in the first round of hearings can be traced to entities preferring pursuit of profit to pursuit of any other purpose

Economists will rightly argue that there is nothing inherently wrong with the pursuit of profit or self-interest. It facilitates the efficient allocation of resources.

But unless it is accompanied by a concern with fairness (“do unto others as you would have them do unto you”) in situations of market power and superior information, as typically occurs in financial markets, it will lead to vulnerable consumers being exploited.

…which is a grey zone of unfairness

There is a large and poorly defined grey area between self-interested but clearly fair behaviour and self-interested unfair behaviour, which, in turn, merges into misconduct and illegal activity.

It is difficult for (particularly large) institutions operating in that grey area, even if committed to “fairness”, to ensure their employees do not slide towards the boundary. Or over it.

Moreover, competition between financial institutions in search of profits can lead to a “race to the bottom” in terms of lower financial product quality. This is not always apparent to some (or many) consumers – at their expense.

Read more: Defence mechanisms. Why NAB chairman Ken Henry lost his job

The financial sector particularly vulnerable to this problem.

First, many financial products and services are “credence goods” where the consumer needs them but is unable to assess their real worth either before or after the purchase.

A perfect example is a visit to the doctor. Often the reason we are visiting the doctor is because we don’t know what’s wrong with us. It makes it necessarily difficult or impossible to tell whether the doctor is good at her job.

Bankers sharpen their claws on each other

Second, much of the activity in financial markets is about trading and making profits (supposedly using superior information and expertise) at the expense of the another party in those markets.

If it is “right” for that part of the entity that does that to make money at someone else’s expense, why is it wrong for the part of the entity that deals with consumers to do that?

Here’s how the Commission could have tackled these problems in order to achieve real, longer term benefits.

Yet we license them…

First, it could have considered whether giving financial institutions a valuable “social licence” to operate in important business areas under advantageous institutional structures should bring with it extra enforceable obligations.

It could have also considered whether, given the lack of misconduct found in the mutual and cooperative sector, banks and other financial institutions could be organised more like mutuals.

Second, it could have recommended changes that would have given stakeholders other than shareholders (such as depositors and employees) a greater say in running those organisations (perhaps at board level) and a say in shaping their culture.

…and we could change the way they’re run

Third, it could have recommended structural separation between the retail and wholesale arms of firms to reduce complexity and the risks of deficiencies in control systems.

Structural separation could have also reduced the risk that the culture of trading and position-taking, in which profits are made at the expense of another party, spilled over into other parts of the institution where it wasn’t wanted.

Finally, it could (and should) have concentrated more on consumer protection.

It is a much broader issue than deterring and penalising misconduct.

Until consumer financial literacy catches up with financial product innovation and complexity, there will continue to be a big “market for financial misconduct”.

Exhorting institutions to do no harm won’t take it away.

The arguments made in this paper are developed in more detail in “The Hayne Royal Commission and Financial Sector Misbehaviour: Lasting Change or Temporary Fix? Economics and Labour Relations Review, Vol 30 (2), June 2019.

– ref. ‘Do no harm’ isn’t enough. Why the banking royal commission will ultimately achieve little – http://theconversation.com/do-no-harm-isnt-enough-why-the-banking-royal-commission-will-ultimately-achieve-little-116076

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Eric Forcier, PhD Candidate, Swinburne University of Technology

Warning: spoilers are coming!

As the ash settles upon the smouldering crenels of King’s Landing and a new ruler ascends to the throne, Game of Thrones fans around the world ask … what now?

For eight years, the sprawling epic of this HBO series has unfurled before our eyes. The show’s cultural relevance, its record-breaking global viewership, and the ways it captures the collective imagination are clear. Events in Australian federal politics have been compared to a Game of Thrones script. Even the sitting US President, for good or ill, communicates via GoT memes.

But beyond the final episode, which aired Monday, there is another world to explore. Thousands of fans have transformed the series into something else, creating a multimedia, participatory phenomenon that will endure.

Through memes, tweets, GIFs, videos, blogs, fan-fiction and commentary, shared via social media, these “transmedia” fans have formed communities that analyse and extend the show’s narrative. Pastiches that mash-up GoT with other popular culture references, such as Game of Thrones – 1995 Style, are just one example of the creative material fans produce.

Our research initially looked at online fan reactions to the episode adapting the “Red Wedding”, a bloody plot point from George RR Martin’s A Song of Ice and Fire novels. We are now exploring the community #FakeWesteros, which has existed on Twitter since the show’s inception.

In this community, fans live-tweet/role-play GoT episodes in character. Tweets (usually tongue-in-cheek), are spoken from the perspective of the character, and often include animated GIFs or memes sharing reactions to events. #FakeWesteros has a large following – the account @NiceQueenCersei alone currently has 58,000 followers.

On the blogging and social network site Tumblr, meanwhile, fans have shared memes throughout the series’ run, while GIPHY (an online database of short animated clips known as GIFS) has approximately 1,200 GIFs under HBO’s verified @gameofthrones account. Many more user-created GIFs are tagged as #gameofthrones.

Thousands of hours of commentary have been recorded by fans in podcasts, discussing everything from who will finally ascend the Iron Throne to whether Tormund and Brienne will find love together (sorry Tormund!). Similar conversations are found on discussion site Reddit, where fan communities have debated everything, including whether the unlikeliest character might have been the prophesied Azhor Ahai (sorry Tyrion!).

YouTube is home to more fan-made content, including parodies like The Night King’s “(Arya) I Just Died in Your Arms Tonight”. Fans have also expressed their feelings about the show by filming and uploading “reaction videos”, recording their real time responses to the series’ most gut-wrenching moments.

And now, we face the end.

What next?

It is easy to forget that Game of Thrones is an adaptation of Martin’s novels and his series is incomplete. There is more story to tell beyond the end of the TV show. Martin has confirmed that he is writing another book, but given his track record (the most recent one was published in 2011), fans probably shouldn’t hold their breath.

HBO has confirmed at least one spin-off series, reportedly a prequel, is in the works. Even so, some fans are unwilling to let go: in reaction to the rushed storytelling of the final season, some have launched a petition (with more than one million signatures) to remake the last six episodes.

Meanwhile, others are already writing their own endings. Fans’ creations over the last eight years represent a massive amount of content. Currently, there are 927 GoT stories on FanFiction.net and 31,284 on fan fiction site Archive of Our Own.

One example re-writes “The Bells” (the penultimate episode in series eight) by imagining that Daenerys Targaryen controls her worst impulses and does not lay waste to King’s Landing – an outcome that would surely have altered the conclusion of the series.

Although the future may seem murky for GoT transmedia fandom, the fans themselves have no doubts. While their HBO namesakes are no more, two members of the #FakeWesteros community @iMissandei and @IronbornTheon made it clear this week that they remain devoted to the community and fandom.

As “IronbornTheon” put it, “I have realised that just because the show is going off the air, doesn’t mean the community is going anywhere.”

We look forward, then, to the next chapter of this story.

– ref. After 8 years of memes, videos and role playing, what now for Game of Thrones’ multimedia fans? – http://theconversation.com/after-8-years-of-memes-videos-and-role-playing-what-now-for-game-of-thrones-multimedia-fans-117254

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Labor’s finance spokesman Jim Chalmers has confirmed he is considering standing for Labor leader, which would put him up against leftwinger Anthony Albanese, who is already campaigning hard for the position.

Chalmers, 41, from the right and a Queenslander, told the ABC’s Q&A:“I want to play a substantial role in the rebuilding of our electoral fortunes, a rebuilding of our policies up to the next election. The exact nature of that substantial role I think is to be determined.

“I’ve got a mountain of respect for other colleagues who are capable of leading our party. And so I want to take the time to consult properly with people.”

Chalmers said Labor’s job now “is not to engage in some year-long pity party, or drag our arses around – our job now is to rebuild and renew and refresh”. This would involve a review of all policies, he said. Pressed on Labor’s emissions reduction target, he said “everything’s up for grabs” after the election.

Read more: Labor’s election defeat reveals its continued inability to convince people it can make their lives better

Earlier, Labor’s deputy leader Tanya Plibersek abandoned her expected bid for the leadership.

Plibersek had been set to announce on Monday she’d be a candidate for leader. But she said in a statement: “Now is not my time. At this point, I cannot reconcile the important responsibilities I have to my family with the additional responsibilities of the Labor leadership”.

Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen will announce on Tuesday whether he will stand – but he carries the burden of being the driving force behind the unpopular franking credits policy, widely blamed for Labor losing votes.

Sources said Chalmers would not run if Bowen, also from the right, stood.

If there is a contest, the leadership will be decided on a 50-50 basis by ballots of the rank and file and the caucus. The deputy position is decided by a caucus vote.

Read more: View from The Hill: Should Labor jump to new generation leader – and Morrison steal some Shorten policies?

Bill Shorten, who announced after Saturday’s defeat that he would not seek the leadership again, is continuing until a new leader is chosen.

Plibersek said she would stay as deputy until the leadership was determined. “At that point I will serve in whatever capacity my colleagues best think can help Labor return to government,” she said.

She said Labor did “need to take a serious look at our policies”.

Albanese, who declared his bid on Sunday, said the franking issue “was very difficult for us” – it “impacted on people’s hip pockets and some of those of course weren’t very wealthy people”.

“They were people for whom a small cheque was what they paid their rates with or their car rego, or other essentials in life when it came in – so that clearly had an impact for us”.

Albanese is also stressing Labor must show that it cares not just about the distribution of wealth but also “about the creation of wealth”.

Making his pitch in a series of appearances, Albanese argued he could appeal across the community. He told the ABC he could “walk into a pub in Hughenden or walk into a boardroom in George Street, Sydney, and have a discussion with people which is based upon respect and based upon dealing pretty frankly with people”.

What went wrong for Labor in Queensland had to be examined, Albanese said. “One of the first things I’ll do – if I’m successful – is to go to Queensland, not just to south east Queensland, but throughout Queensland, and to talk with people.”

Read more: Labor’s election loss was not a surprise if you take historical trends into account

As the post mortems start in Labor after the unexpected loss, frontbencher Joel Fitzgibbon, who had a big swing against him in his NSW mining seat of Hunter, told the ABC Labor had to “get back to the centre”.

“We have to reconnect to our working class base, reconnect with those blue collar workers, talk more about them and their cost-of-living pressures and less about some of those issues that are more […] aligned with the left side of the debate”.

He criticised Labor equivocating on Adani. The opposition had said Adani had to stand on its own two feet and meet the most stringent environmental hurdles, he said. “But we needed to say a third thing. We needed to make it clear that if it was able to do so, then of course Labor would welcome the investment and jobs. We failed to do that”.

Fitzgibbon threatened he might stand for the leadership himself if there wasn’t someone who indicated “they are the person who is prepared to put us back on track”.

But outgoing senator Doug Cameron tweeted “This is not the time to panic and move to the “centre” as a proxy for abandoning progressive policies and capitulating once again to neoliberalism. There was no Morrison miracle only a scare campaign prosecuted by the billionaires who control the media and the mining industries.“

The government is now assured of a working majority after providing the speaker, with at least 77 seats. Prime Minister Scott Morrison is preparing the reshuffle of his ministry, and held a meeting of cabinet’s national security committee on Monday.

– ref. Jim Chalmers considers tilt at leadership – http://theconversation.com/jim-chalmers-considers-tilt-at-leadership-117455

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sabin Zahirovic, Postdoctoral Research Associate, University of Sydney

Scientists are among the millions of die-hard Game of Thrones fans digesting the show’s finale today.

The striking landscape of Game of Thrones has led some researchers to build climate simulations that explain the erratic seasons depicted in the show, and others to piece together the geological history.

Inspired by this work, we have built the first plate tectonic reconstruction of the Game of Thrones continents. Tectonic plates are moving slabs that make up the outer layer of our planet, and behave like conveyor belts in the way they carry and drag continents around on the surface.

Even in this fantasy Game of Thrones world, geological processes like tectonic plate movement, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions would have been responsible for building the mountains, carving the rivers and creating vast oceans.

Read more: How Earth’s continents became twisted and contorted over millions of years

Why solve tectonic ‘jigsaw puzzles’?

Firstly, because even scientists are allowed a bit of fun now and then. But we also hope this map will help people better understand the science of plate tectonics, which is key to us knowing our past, present and even future world.

Plate tectonics can help us contextualise climate change and, like in the Game of Thrones world, geological events can influence political and social history.

We built the tectonic maps using free community software, called GPlates, that we developed for real-world tectonic modelling in the School of Geosciences at the University of Sydney.

The animation first shows our model for Westeros and Essos, but also how we use the same technology to build a detailed representation of Earth’s tectonic evolution. The same technology is also used by hobbyist “planet builders” who create evolving maps that might be used in computer games, movies and TV shows, or other creative pursuits.

Read more: You know nothing about rehoming a pet, Jon Snow

Setting the scene

There is no doubt high-budget visual effects, a gripping storyline and power-plays between characters are key ingredients to the success of Game of Thrones. But so too are the captivating geological settings of the Seven Kingdoms.

The breathtaking cinematography across sweeping grasslands of the Dothraki steppe to the snow-capped volcanic peaks north of the Wall; each location depicting contrasting topography that has shaped vastly different societies.

The geology also informs the storyline. For example, the all-important Dragonglass (volcanic obsidian rock) and Valyrian steel is extracted from the volcanic cliffs around Dragonstone castle.

How we made our map

In our day-to-day work we use the shapes of continents and the geology they carry to reconstruct how real tectonic plate “puzzle pieces” moved around on Earth over time.

In this project, we worked with “evidence” collected by us and others from the Game of Thrones fictional world. This included evidence of past volcanism and mountain building, which are often the smoking gun for tectonic plate convergence and collision.

The easiest part of the tectonic reconstruction takes place by working backwards from seafloor spreading, where continents have been ripped apart by the the churning interior of our planet.

In the case of the Games of Thrones world, we’ve assumed the continents of Westeros and Essos broke apart 25 million years ago to open the Narrow Sea. We mapped this occurring much like the unzipping of the African continent along the East African Rift Valley at a similar time.

But as we go deeper in time, we lose a lot of geological evidence. This happens because of erosion, continental collisions that build mountains and subduction, where one tectonic plate sinks beneath another.

In the real world, although India is now part of the Eurasian continent, an ancient seaway called the Tethys once separated them before the continents collided about 45 million years ago. The continental collision uplifted the Tibetan Plateau and the Himalayas, and in the process crushing and destroying geological evidence and obscuring accurate tectonic models of the region.

Our plate tectonic reconstructions back to the Pangea supercontinent at 250 million years ago are fairly accurate by just undoing seafloor spreading, but the restoration of older supercontinents are much more difficult.

Knowing our planet

Tectonic plate “jigsaw puzzles” models are vital for explaining the evolution and liveability of our planet.

Plate tectonics controls the arrangement of continents and seaways on geological timescales, rearranging ocean circulation and altering global climate.

Read more: Unpacking the history of how Earth feeds life, and life changes Earth

Although much of this geological activity is too slow to be perceptible by humans, the geological past is littered with examples where sudden geological “shocks” to the living creatures on Earth are caused by massive outpourings of volcanic rock and carbon dioxide, sometimes leading to mass extinctions. This may have been a factor in the death of nearly all the dinosaurs.

Tectonic reconstructions can inform climate simulations and help us contextualise current and future climate change. They can also lead us to find mineral deposits that may help create a low-carbon society.

And they’re fun to play with.

Research assistants Cian Clinton-Gray, Irene Koutsoumbis and Youseph Ibrahim contributed to creating the map and writing this article.

– ref. We made a moving tectonic map of the Game of Thrones landscape – http://theconversation.com/we-made-a-moving-tectonic-map-of-the-game-of-thrones-landscape-117393

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tony Walker, Adjunct Professor, School of Communications, La Trobe University

The last thing the world needs at a moment of significant trade tensions between the United States and China is a Middle East crisis that would further imperil global growth.

Yet this is what is threatening in the Persian Gulf, where the US and its Arab allies are edging towards a showdown with Iran in a contested waterway through which 20% of the world’s tradeable oil passes daily.

In coordination with its Arab allies, notably Saudi Arabia, and with Israel, the US is ratcheting up pressure on Iran to wind back its support for what it terms “bad actors” in the region.

This includes Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, radical groups in the Palestinian territories, including Hamas, the Houthis in Yemen, and disaffected anti-regime elements in the Gulf.

While the US denies it is seeking to bring about regime change in Iran, this clearly is its hope.

Conflict is not inevitable, but risks are elevated by combative talk – and actions – from a Washington that seems bent on engaging in the sort of brinkmanship that threatens more serious conflict in a region already on edge.

Read more: Is a war coming between the US and Iran?

Washington’s deployment of an aircraft carrier battle group and B-52 bombers in the Gulf region is amplifying concerns.

President Donald Trump is not helping; to the contrary.

On one hand, he invites Iran’s leaders to talk. On the other, he warns of that country’s annihilation.

This sort of bombast, the antithesis of wielding a big stick and talking softly, coincides with tightening US sanctions that are doing significant damage to Iran’s economy.

These measures include sanctions imposed this month on Iran’s industrial metals sector. This sector accounts for about 10% of its export economy.

How Tehran responds to these harsh assaults on its economic lifelines is anyone’s guess, but what is certain is that its response will not be passive.

Already this month we have witnessed two sets of terrorist attacks on Gulf oil interests Iran, or its proxies, are blamed for an assault on four ships in which explosives damaged the hulls. Two of these vessels are Saudi-owned. In the second, Iran proxies are blamed for drone strikes on a Saudi Arabian oil pipeline.

Drone strikes on a Saudi Arabian oil pipeline are adding to concerns. These strikes have been attributed to Iranian proxies.

In response to terrorist threats to its eastern oil-rich provinces, Saudi Arabia’s state-controlled media have begun calling for “surgical strikes” against Iranian interests.

Such action would provoke a wider conflagration.

What tends to be overlooked in all of this is the ease with which Iran, on a previous occasion, stifled oil shipments from the Gulf.

In 1984, Iran was widely believed to have been responsible for rolling second world war mines into Gulf waterways in the so-called “tanker war” with Iraq. This destroyed several vessels and brought tanker traffic to a halt for weeks.

Adding to jitters are recent reports that a Katyusha rocket fell near the American embassy in central Baghdad. Iranian-backed militias, with their strongholds across the Tigris River in the east of the city, are suspected of launching the rocket.

Washington had already ordered non-essential US personnel out of Baghdad. Oil giant ExxonMobil has begun moving employees out of the region. The US has warned commercial air traffic of increased risks in the Gulf.

This is a movie we have seen before, in the first Gulf War and in the 2003 invasion of Iraq to remove Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.

Iran proved to be a significant beneficiary of the chaos that resulted from a destabilisation of the Middle East following the US-led invasion.

None of this is contributing to a stable oil market, on which the global economy rests.

On top of punitive sanctions against Iran, sanctions on Venezuela and disruptions in Libya caused by a civil war have unsettled markets.

Dramatic cuts in Iran’s oil shipments due to US-imposed sanctions followed Washington’s withdrawal last year from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) aimed at forestalling Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Until sanctions started to bite, Iran was the second-largest exporter among Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), behind Saudi Arabia. At their peak, Iranian exports were about 3 million barrels a day.

That number has now slid to 500,000 barrels or less, according to oil market analysts. But in its attempts to skirt US sanctions, Iran is no longer reporting production to OPEC and is not providing definitive information on exports.

As things stand, US sanctions are being adhered to by most importers of Iranian crude, with the likely exceptions being China and India. The US removed waivers on countries accepting Iran’s oil in November after withdrawing from the JCPOA in May 2018.

The 2015 agreement, negotiated by the Obama administration in partnership with the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany, froze Iran’s nuclear program for 15 years. The agreement was designed to provide an opportunity for the West to take counter-measures in case Iran upscaled its production of fissionable material.

By withdrawing from the JCPOA without a fallback position beyond punitive sanctions and threats of military action, the US has separated itself from its allies and left itself few options beyond further sanctions – or military threats.

Read more: Stakes are high as US ups the ante on trade dispute with China

That is, unless Trump’s offers of direct negotiations with Iran’s leaders bear fruit. At this stage, a tense standoff in the world’s most volatile region is not only dangerous, it could have been avoided by the US adhering to an agreement that was far from perfect, but better than the alternative.

That alternative is estrangement from its allies on Iran, and now real risks of a further security deterioration in the volatile Gulf.

Philip Gordon, a Middle East specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations, summed up the dilemma for US policy and that of its allies rendered anxious by risks of adventurism in the Gulf in pursuit of an American goal of regime change in Tehran. He wrote that barring something extraordinary such as the collapse of the Iranian regime,

It’s hard to see how this current conflict could end without the United States backing down or with a further and very dangerous escalation. The Trump administration should have considered all this before it walked away from the nuclear deal in the first place.

– ref. Trouble in the Gulf as US-Iran dispute threatens to escalate into serious conflict – http://theconversation.com/trouble-in-the-gulf-as-us-iran-dispute-threatens-to-escalate-into-serious-conflict-117081

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lucy Deng, Staff Specialist Paediatrician, National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance; Clinical Associate Lecturer, Children’s Hospital Westmead Clinical School, University of Sydney

About 4.1 million Australians are under-vaccinated, meaning they’ve received some vaccinations, but not all the ones they need.

While the vaccination debate generally centres around children, the majority of people who are under-vaccinated are actually adults.

This places them and others at unnecessary risk of preventable diseases. But it is possible to catch up on missed vaccinations.

Why might you have missed some?

It’s possible you were too afraid of needles as a child, or your parents had ideological concerns about vaccination and never took you to get vaccinated at all. This is probably something you would know about.

But even if you believe you had all your vaccines as a kid, there are many reasons you might not be 100% up to date:

• new vaccines have been added to the immunisation schedule
• if you’ve grown up in another country, you may not have received every vaccine recommended in Australia
• previous ways of recording and reminding people to have vaccines were not as good as they are today, so you may have accidentally missed doses without knowing
• you may have a medical condition that puts you at higher risk of certain diseases and therefore you need additional vaccine doses.

Read more: Australians’ attitudes to vaccination are more complex than a simple ‘pro’ or ‘anti’ label

Whatever the reason and regardless of your age now, it’s worthwhile to check if you’re up to date with your vaccinations. You can do this by having a chat with your GP or an immunisation clinic nurse.

Measles cases show us why it’s important

Being fully up to date with vaccinations is important to protect against diseases such as measles, whooping cough (pertussis) and tetanus.

Globally we’ve seen a 300% rise in measles cases in the first three months of 2019 compared to the same period last year. There have been nearly as many measles cases in the first quarter of this year in Australia as in all of 2018.

The majority of these measles cases were introduced by healthy Australian travellers who were not fully vaccinated and caught the virus while travelling to countries where the measles is still common, such as India, Philipines, Brazil and Ukraine.

Read more: Why people born between 1966 and 1994 are at greater risk of measles – and what to do about it

So what do you need to do?

Try to locate any written records of past vaccinations and take them to your GP. Your GP can also check your immunisation record on the Australian Immunisation Register, which has records of any childhood vaccinations from 1996 and some adult vaccinations from 2016.

You may be able to access your own immunisation records via your Medicare online account through myGov or the Express Plus Medicare mobile app. Using this information, your GP can work out what vaccines you’re missing.

If you can’t find your vaccination records, it’s generally safe to restart vaccinations from scratch. For example, if you’re already immune to measles, having an extra dose of a vaccine containing measles is safe. It will only further boost your immunity.

Sometimes your GP may do blood tests to check if you already have immunity to certain diseases, including hepatitis B and measles, mumps and rubella.

Which vaccines do adults need?

Catch-up vaccinations are free for young adults under 20 years old, and vary in price after that.

Healthy people aged ten and above should make sure they’re up to date with the following vaccinations:

• diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis (whooping cough)
• hepatitis B
• polio
• human papillomavirus (HPV)
• measles, mumps and rubella
• meningococcal
• pneumococcal
• varicella (chicken pox)
• zoster (shingles).

As an adult, the number of extra vaccines needed is generally lower than what is listed in the childhood immunisation schedule. This is because young babies need more doses of the same vaccine to develop adequate immunity, and because some vaccines are not required by the time you reach adulthood.

Read more: High-dose, immune-boosting or four-strain? A guide to flu vaccines for over-65s

If you’re planning on becoming pregnant, it’s vital to ensure you’re immune to viruses such as hepatitis B, rubella and chicken pox (varicella) as they can be passed on to and severely affect the development of an unborn baby.

Whooping cough (pertussis) boosters are important for pregnant women, new parents and grandparents to protect babies who are most at risk of dying from this condition.

Older people should also be getting a booster dose of whooping cough and tetanus vaccines, as immunity can wane over time and these diseases can be serious in older people.

Other vaccines may be recommended depending on your health status, age, lifestyle and occupation – called the “HALO” principle. Certain medical conditions and medical treatments can increase your susceptibility to some vaccine-preventable diseases.

And depending on what you do for work, you may be at higher risk of being exposed to some vaccine-preventable diseases.

Read more: Health Check: which vaccinations should I get as an adult?

For example, the Q fever vaccine is recommended for people working closely with livestock. Q fever is a bacterial infection that often spreads from animals and can cause severe flu-like symptoms.

While guidelines available online are useful, to find out what vaccinations are going to be most appropriate for your personal circumstances, it’s best to chat to your GP.

What if you’ve had a reaction in the past?

If your parents told you not to have a certain vaccine due to a past reaction, it’s worth getting the details and discussing this with your GP.

Certain vaccines, such as the whooping cough vaccine, have changed over time. Some of the reactions seen with previous vaccines are no longer seen in the vaccines used today.

GPs can also discuss specific reactions with an immunisation specialist to develop a plan to safely vaccinate where possible.

Read more: Everyone can be an effective advocate for vaccination: here’s how

The immunisation schedule in Australia is constantly changing. Changes are made in response to new scientific evidence, changes in the circulation of diseases in the community and the development of new vaccines.

For your own health and the health of those around you, it’s important to check in with your GP regularly to make sure your vaccinations are up to date.

– ref. Health Check: are you up to date with your vaccinations? – http://theconversation.com/health-check-are-you-up-to-date-with-your-vaccinations-116510

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Cameron, Research Fellow, University of Sydney

Polls had predicted a narrow win for Labor in this election, so what explains the Coalition victory? Data from the Australian Election Study (AES), based on public opinion surveys conducted after every federal election from 1987 to 2016, provide some indications as to what long-term trends likely contributed to the result.

This includes rising voter disaffection with the major parties and an associated rise in support for independents and minor parties. Adding to the problems for Labor was Bill Shorten’s lack of popularity among voters when compared to other party leaders over the past three decades.

And not least, Labor’s focus on tax policies in the campaign was unwise given the long-term view among voters that the party is less reliable on economic issues.

The rise of independents and minor parties

Voters have become increasingly dissatisfied with democratic politics in Australia. Although the Coalition did win enough seats to form a majority government, voters have been gradually drifting away from the major parties in recent elections and casting protest votes for minor parties and independents in greater numbers.

In this election, the historically safe Liberal seat of Warringah in Sydney went to the centrist independent, Zali Steggall. Another centrist independent, Kerryn Phelps, came close to defeating Liberal Dave Sharma in Wentworth for the second time in the past year. Voters in these electorates may align with the Liberals on economic issues, but they are socially much more progressive than conservative elements within the party.

Read more: Minor parties perform well in federal election and reconfirm the power of preference deals

While progressive voters in Sydney have increasingly moved toward centrist independents, many voters in Queensland, and to a lesser extent elsewhere around the country, moved to parties on the populist right. Many of the preferences for these parties were directed to the Coalition, contributing to the election outcome.

So, although the Coalition won enough seats to form a majority government, there was a small swing overall against both Labor and the Coalition in favour of minor parties, underscoring voter disaffection with traditional party politics.

Shorten’s popularity problem

Leadership is not the only factor that matters in elections, but it is important. According to AES data, in eight of the last 11 elections, the party with the most popular leader won. The exceptions are the elections won by John Howard in 1998 and 2001, and Paul Keating’s win in the 1993 “unlosable” election.

The Australian Election Study has been tracking leader evaluations based on surveys of voters since 1987, providing a good indication of what it takes, at the minimum, for a leader to win an election. The AES has found that generally around 10% of voters cast their ballots based on party leaders.

This can fluctuate depending on leader popularity. When a very popular Rudd was Labor leader in 2007, 20% of Labor voters cast their ballots based on the leader. In contrast, in the 2016 election when Shorten was leader, just 6% of Labor voters did so.

Read more: View from The Hill: Should Labor jump to new generation leader – and Morrison steal some Shorten policies?

Shorten’s unpopularity has been much discussed in the lead-up to this election. He consistently lagged behind Scott Morrison, and before that Malcolm Turnbull, as preferred prime minister, even while Labor outperformed the Coalition in polls on the two party-preferred basis.

Over the last 30 years, the least popular prime minister to win an election was Tony Abbott in 2013. According to AES surveys, his average evaluation by voters was 4.3 on a scale from zero (strongly dislike) to ten (strongly like). Despite being such an unpopular leader, he benefited from the leadership dramas between Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard that dominated Labor’s time in government from 2007-13.

In comparison, Shorten’s evaluation in the same survey in 2016 was 4.2 out of ten, lower than any election winner on record. Moreover, the AES has been asking voters to evaluate the party leaders in terms of leadership characteristics since 1993, based on factors like strong leadership, trustworthiness, honesty, intelligence, competence, knowledge and the ability to be inspiring, compassionate and sensible.

The 2016 data showed that Shorten was the poorest performer across these characteristics as a whole in the 23 years the questions had been asked about major party leaders, scoring lowest on seven of the nine characteristics.

So, given this evidence from the 2016 election, why did Labor retain such an unpopular leader? First, the new rules surrounding leadership changes introduced by Rudd in 2013 made it more difficult not just to remove sitting PMs, but also to change the leader while in opposition.

Labor was also eager to project an image of stability following the years of infighting by Gillard and Rudd. Lastly, Labor performed better than expected in the 2016 election (despite the loss), giving Shorten a mandate to continue on for another shot in 2019.

Taxes as a policy centrepiece

In recent elections, health, education and management of the economy have been the main issues that voters mention most frequently in AES surveys.

In the ten elections between 1990 and 2016, Labor polled better than the Coalition as the preferred party on health by an average of 17 percentage points, and on education by 16 points. On management of the economy, however, the Coalition has polled better by an average of 19 points over the last three elections.

Read more: Their biggest challenge? Avoiding a recession

Taxation has rarely been among the top issues in elections, the main exception being 1998 when the main issue was the introduction of a GST. But in this election, Labor chose tax policy as one of its policy centrepieces.

This choice was unwise for three reasons. First, Labor has consistently polled worse than the Coalition on taxation in AES surveys over the past 26 years, although the two parties did draw close in the 2016 election.

Second, Labor was unable to adequately explain its tax policies to the electorate in this election campaign. Studies show voters are influenced most by their perceptions of how party policy will affect the overall performance of the economy — what is called “sociotropic” voting. In the absence of a link between Labor’s tax policies and better economic performance in the 2019 campaign, many voters simply saw the proposed changes as an unnecessary imposition.

Third, Labor argued that the tax changes would affect only a small section of the electorate, typically less than one in ten. While the direct effect may have been small, this ignored the much larger group of voters who aspire to gain an investment property, for example, and might have been impacted by Labor’s policies.

Australia has some of the highest levels of property and share investment in the world. The 2016 AES survey found that one in ten respondents said they or someone close to them owned an investment property, while one in three owned shares. The proportion of the electorate potentially affected by Labor’s proposed changes was, therefore, quite sizeable.

Though many political analysts are searching for possible answers to the Coalition’s surprising win, the AES data suggests it wasn’t so surprising after all – long-term trends are consistent with a Labor loss, given the various factors in play in this election.

The above analyses are based on data from Australian Election Study surveys 1987 to 2016, representative public opinion surveys fielded after each Australian federal election. Data for the 2019 election will be available once the post-election survey has been fielded. For reports, data and further information see the Australian Election Study website: www.australianelectionstudy.org

– ref. Labor’s election loss was not a surprise if you take historical trends into account – http://theconversation.com/labors-election-loss-was-not-a-surprise-if-you-take-historical-trends-into-account-117399