MIL OSI – Source: Creative New Zealand – New Zealand’s dark history and violent present revealed in award-winning plays. PLAYMARKET is pleased to announce the ADAM NZ PLAY AWARD winners for 2015: Anders Falstie-Jensen for Centrepoint and Hone Kouka for Bless the Child. The Adam NZ Play Award recognises and celebrates the best in new writing for the theatre. Director of Playmarket Murray Lynch announced the win at Circa Theatre on 28 March 2015 alongside four other special award winners. Based on meticulous research and interviews Centrepoint is a fictional take on the story of New Zealand’s most notorious community. In order to save their marriage, Kate and Neil decide that a change is needed. Inspired by the vision of Bert Potter, they sell everything they own and, with their two young children, move to Centrepoint. As they embrace the community’s radical lifestyle their family is changed in ways that they could never have imagined. Anders Falstie-Jensen was born in Denmark and has lived in Aotearoa since 2001. He is one of the founding members of The Rebel Alliance Theatre Company. He has worked as a director, writer, producer and in many other roles in the theatre. His writing credits include A Night of French Mayhem (2007), The Bomb (2008) and Standstill (2012). Bless the Child eloquently and passionately highlights the tragic issue of violence against children. Another Maori child has died and hotshot lawyer Khan Te Ahi Richards is reluctantly dragged in to the case to defend the mother as the whanau close ranks. Shardae, mother to the deceased child, is demonised and guilty until proven innocent. Who killed baby and will they be found out? Affecting all is Ruaumoko, god of earthquakes and unborn children. Hone Kouka (Ngati Porou, Ngati Raukawa, Ngati Kahungunu) is an acclaimed Maori writer, winner of the Bruce Mason Award (1992) and multiple Chapman Tripp Theatre Awards. His plays, which have been produced throughout Aotearoa and around the world, include Waiora, Nga Tangata Toa, The Prophet, Tu and the solo show I, George Nepia. Hone has published five books and co-founded theatre production house Tawata Productions with Miria George. Tawata produces the works of emerging and established Maori, Pasifika and tauiwi playwrights and the Matariki Development Festival. Hone became a member of the New Zealand Order of Merit for services to Contemporary Maori Theatre in June 2009. Dean Parker was named Runner Up for his play Polo, an hilarious evisceration of class and politics set amongst the Auckland glitterati and full of sparkling dialogue and despicable characters. Highly Commended was awarded to Tom McCrory for his play Significance in which an ageing Shakespeare muses on the death of his son. The Adam NZ Play Award, now in its eighth year, is the only one of its kind for new writing. Playmarket’s only entrance requirements are that the playwright be a New Zealand citizen or permanent resident and that the play has not yet had a production. The award is generously funded by the Adam Foundation. Playmarket is also very grateful for the support of Circa Theatre, and major funders: ASB Community Trust and Creative New Zealand. ADAM AWARD WINNERS 2015 Anders Falstie-Jensen for Centrepoint and Hone Kouka for Bless the Child Runner-up: Dean Parker for Polo Best Play by a Woman Playwright: Michelanne Forster for The Gift of Tongues Best Play by a Maori Playwright: Hone Kouka for Bless the Child Best Play by a Pasifika Playwright: David Mamea for Kingswood Highly Commended: Tom McCrory for Significance Finalists: Aroha Awarau for Officer 27 Sam Brooks for Spitting it Out Kip Chapman for Hudson and Halls Live! Denis Edwards for Service to Love Pip Hall for Squeak Squeak – Tales of the White Mouse Nathan Joe for Who is Sada Abe? Part One: Bullfight of Love Riwia Mackenzie-Brown for The Violet and the Huia Feather Ken Mizusawa for Why We Do What We Do? James Nokise for The Last Part Gavin McGibbon for Congregation Robyn Patterson for The World’s First Fight April Phillips for Charlotte Badger – Miscreant, Mother, Mutineer! John Smythe for Where there’s a Will Aroha White for 2080 –]]>
National’s changes leave student bodies in chaos – Cunliffe
MIL OSI – Source: Labour Party – National’s changes leave student bodies in chaos The chaos created by National’s scrapping of compulsory student association membership may force the 86-year old Union of Students Association to fold, Labour’s Tertiary Education spokesperson David Cunliffe says. “National’s 2011 Voluntary Student Membership Act has left student associations with no minimum funding. “While some are well set up, many are underfunded and hamstrung by their universities. This law change means these vital independent student bodies depend on the decisions of institutions for their funding. “Student associations are such a mess that the Union of Student Associations has just 10 members left after major institutions such as Canterbury and Waikato universities pulled out several years ago and now Victoria and Otago are leaving. “Despite representing 400,000 tertiary students, the union established in 1929 may have to fold. “Tertiary education has never been more important to driving our dynamic economy and building a strong and vibrant New Zealand. But student life has never been less affordable and too many young New Zealanders are being locked out. “Having a strong voice for students is critical for them and for New Zealand,” David Cunliffe says. –]]>
More parents resolving disputes outside court
MIL OSI – Source: New Zealand Government – More parents resolving disputes outside court Almost 70 per cent of family disputes referred to mediation involving children are being settled out of court a year on from the Government’s family justice reforms says Justice Minister Amy Adams. The reforms, which have been in effect for a year tomorrow, place out-of-court community-based resolution services at the heart of the system to resolve family disputes about the care of children. Ms Adams says the reforms have delivered a modern, accessible family justice system that encourages parents to reach out-of-court agreements about arrangements for the care of their children. The suite of reforms was the biggest overhaul since the Family Court was established in 1981. “The new system is reducing the stress experienced by families and children, by avoiding the delays, conflict and expense that court proceedings entail through greater use of out-of-court mediation,” says Ms Adams. The centrepiece of the reforms is the new Family Dispute Resolution (FDR) service where, working with mediators, parents sort out disputes about the care of their children. “FDR is proving highly successful, of the 905 disputes referred to FDR in the last year, 68 per cent of mediations resolved all matters, and a further 18 per cent resolved some matters. “Almost seven out of ten disputes referred to mediation are being resolved without having to go to court which is reducing the inevitable stress children and families face when their parents separate. It also means the Family Court can now focus on the most difficult cases, especially those involving family violence, that require judicial expertise,” says Ms Adams. Ms Adams said there was a strong focus on family violence. “With these reforms bedding in, family violence remains a priority area. The reforms have refocused the system and mean we’re now able to concentrate on the more difficult matters,” says Ms Adams. The reforms relate to Care of Children Act matters, which account for about 40 per cent of Family Court applications. While most cases are now initially referred to FDR, urgent matters (e.g., disputes that involve domestic violence or abuse) continue to go straight to the Family Court, where all parties are entitled to legal representation and, if eligible, to legal aid. Fewer applications are being filed in the court since the reforms were implemented. The number of active applications on hand at 31 January 2015 since 31 March 2014 has reduced by 12 per cent. Background A Ministry of Justice review of family justice in 2011 found court processes were complex, uncertain and too slow. There was a lack of focus on children and vulnerable people, and not enough support to assist parties to resolve parenting and relationship issues out-of-court. For those participants who are eligible for government funding (an estimated 60 per cent of participants) their share of Family Dispute Resolution is fully funded by the government. Those participants who are not eligible for full funding can access the Family Dispute Resolution service for no more than $897 (including GST) from government providers. Key statistics:
- In the year 31 March 2014 to 2 March 2015;
- 2348 assessments were completed. Of these, 1278 were suitable for Family Dispute Resolution.
- There were 793 exemptions.
- 905 mediations were held with 68 per cent resolving all matters. A further 18 per cent resolved some matters.
- Only 14 per cent had no issues resolved.
- 5,199 people have completed Parenting through Separation courses
- 4,033 people have accessed the new Family Legal Advice Service;
- There have been almost 4 million page views on the Family Justice website (www.justice.govt.nz/family-justice)
National environmental report topics announced – Statistics NZ
MIL OSI – Source: Statistics New Zealand – National environmental report topics announced Secretary for the Environment Dr Paul Reynolds and Government Statistician Liz MacPherson today announced the topics that will be the focus of the Environment Aotearoa 2015 and Environmental indicators Te taiao Aotearoa reports. The national environment reports are being compiled by the Ministry for the Environment and Statistics New Zealand, and will be released in the middle of this year. The broad range of topics includes river quality, native plants and animals, ocean acidity and impacts on human health. Dr Reynolds said the report was the start of a journey to give New Zealanders a comprehensive overview of the environment. “The reports will contain high-quality data on five key environmental domains – air, climate and atmosphere, land, fresh water and marine,” he said. “They will assess the environmental health of each domain with data from key topics.” The Ministry for the Environment and Statistics NZ spent months assessing existing data available from a list of potential topics to include in the reports. Experts from many sectors provided advice. The Ministers of Statistics and the Environment approved the topics, but the public will be consulted about topics for future reports. Ms MacPherson said the assessment used Statistics NZ’s rigorous criteria. “This means New Zealanders can have confidence in the information we will publish about why, where and how New Zealand’s environment is changing, as well as what impact this is having on our lifestyle, standard of living, and well-being.” Data to measure the topics come from existing datasets so councils and ratepayers will not face additional costs. For some topics, data of sufficient quality are not yet available. The list of measures, or statistics released today are provisional at this stage as the assessment process has not been completed and the full set of national indicators, case studies, and supplementary information has not been signed off by the Government Statistician. Central and local government are working together to improve the representativeness, consistency and quality of future environmental data and reporting. Dr Reynolds said Environment Aotearoa 2015 and Environmental indicators Te taiao Aotearoa were developed in parallel with legislation to make future environmental reporting more regular, more independent, and more useful. The Environmental Reporting Bill is before Parliament and is expected to be passed in the next couple of months. “Once the legislation is passed, the Government will consult with the public on which environmental topics will be reported on under each domain,” he said. Read the topics: New Zealand’s Environmental Reporting Series: 2015 topics and provisional statistics. –]]>
Fight against weeds goes hi-tech
MIL OSI – Source: University of Otago – Fight against weeds goes hi-tech: WWF-New Zealand partners with University of Otago to develop iPhone app Monday, 30 March 2015 3:27pm With Flora Finder – WEED mobile app, users will soon be able to instantly identify problem weed species just by taking photographs using the camera on their smart phones and devices. With weeds in New Zealand costing billions to control and often causing irreversible damage to ecosystems, the University of Otago is bringing the war on weeds into the hi-tech space with help from a Conservation Innovation $5,000 grant from the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF). Using the leaf shape recognition technology in the Flora Finder mobile application, users will soon be able to instantly identify problem weed species just by taking photographs using the camera on their smart phones and devices. Up to 80 of the most common weed species will be included in the app. “We are always looking for new ways to make conservation easier for everyone to participate in. This app caught our attention because it will provide instant ID of our worst weeds and encourage action before they get out of control,” said Michele Frank, Community Conservation Coordinator for WWF. Targeted at identifying weeds earlier, Flora Finder – WEED solves the problem of users not knowing which weedy plant they are looking at and how to deal with it. “Even if the app can’t identify the weed, Flora Finder – WEED aims to have the capacity for users to attach unidentified photographs of weeds to an email which could be sent to local experts for identification. In essence Flora Finder – WEED becomes a citizen science application” said Graham Strong, commercialisation manager with Otago Innovation Limited. With $5,000 in support from the WWF combined with the technical expertise of the Flora Finder partners (Otago Innovation Ltd, the University of Otago Botany Department, and MEA mobile), Flora Finder – WEED is expected to be available to the public by October 2015. Graham StrongOtago Innovation LimitedEmail: graham.strong@otagoinnovation.com Rosa Argent WWF-New ZealandMob: 027 212 3103 About Otago Innovation Limited Otago Innovation Limited is the technology transfer office of the University of Otago, Dunedin, NZ. They help University of Otago Research Researchers get their big ideas out there. The team has over 56 years of combined experience, is stable, highly experienced and has a strong reputation and track record for delivering outcomes. They look at all sorts of ideas – products, services, mobile apps, medical devices, novel therapies, ebooks and diagnostics just to name a few. About WWF WWF is one of the world’s largest and most respected independent conservation organizations, with over 5 million supporters and a global network active in over 100 countries. WWF’s mission is to stop the degradation of the earth’s natural environment and to build a future in which humans live in harmony with nature, by conserving the world’s biological diversity, ensuring that the use of renewable natural resources is sustainable, and promoting the reduction of pollution and wasteful consumption. About Botany Department University of Otago The Department of Botany at the University of Otago, Dunedin, NZ is the oldest and only Botany Department in a university in NZ. And over the last 90 years has produced famous NZ Botanists like Professor Geoff Baylis and Sir Professor Alan Mark. Of special note, is renowned 19th century artist Mr John Buchanan. A naturalist botanist, Mr Buchanan was also from the Otago Region and one of the plants in Flora Finder is named after him. About MEA MEA Mobile has been building apps since before there was even an app store, creating mobile solutions which are beautifully designed, tested and developed to work seamlessly in your life. MEA has developed and released over 200 apps with millions of downloads and is local, with offices in Auckland, Hamilton, Wellington and New Haven, Connecticut. They are a full service digital agency with specialists in branding, marketing, video and digital services. A list of Otago experts available for media comment is available elsewhere on this website. Electronic addresses (including email accounts, instant messaging services, or telephone accounts) published on this page are for the sole purpose of contact with the individuals concerned, in their capacity as officers, employees or students of the University of Otago, or their respective organisation. Publication of any such electronic address is not to be taken as consent to receive unsolicited commercial electronic messages by the address holder. –]]>
New website showcases World War I footage – NZ Government
MIL OSI – Source: New Zealand Government – New website showcases World War I footage Arts, Culture and Heritage Minister Maggie Barry says a new website featuring previously unavailable film from World War I is an engrossing historical resource. Anzac: Sights & Sounds, from Ngā Taonga Sound and Vision, gives an evocative, insightful and compelling view of the conflict, using archival film footage gathered from across the world, recorded interviews, songs and photographs. “The films and audio recordings on the website are an extraordinary record of a tragic and painful time in New Zealand’s history,” Ms Barry says. “Sounds and images give an emotional, personal connection to the past. Watching the footage, you can picture yourself saying goodbye to your loved ones, knowing it might be for the last time.” “Having this footage publicly available at no cost makes the site an important part of our ongoing World War I commemorations. It will also be a valuable education tool.” The focus of the launch is on the Gallipoli campaign in 1915 as well as the home front, with more footage from later in the war to be added as other anniversaries approach. Highlights include a recording of the Otago Regiment leaving Dunedin in 1914 as well as the soldier’s recollections of life in the trenches of the Dardanelles. “You get a real sense of what their lives were like in the appalling conditions at Gallipoli. You can feel the camaraderie, the experiences and also the sense of humour that bound them all together in the horrific battles they had to endure.” www.anzacsightsound.org –]]>
Without Consent reveals the truth of Australia’s past
MIL OSI – Source: National Archives of Australia – Without Consent reveals the truth of Australia’s past A new exhibition Without Consent: Australia’s past adoption practices, at the National Archives of Australia, brings to light the previously hidden adoption practices of Australia’s past. It has offered those affected by forced adoptions the opportunity to share their experiences – some for the first time ever. The exhibition was today opened by former Prime Minister Julia Gillard who, in 2013, offered a National Apology to the many thousands affected by forced adoption. It is estimated that 250,000 adoptions took place; a significant number were forced adoptions. The mothers who had their babies taken were unmarried and often forced to live a lie for decades. For some, it was a secret they took to their graves.’ We are very proud that, following the Senate enquiry into forced adoptions, the National Archives was given the responsibility to develop this national touring exhibition– and the website we launched last year on the first anniversary of the National Apology,’ said Director-General of the National Archives, David Fricker, at the launch.’ The practice of forced adoption was and is illegal. People suffered physical coercion and emotional manipulation. Informed consent was not given by mothers and fathers; these adoptions were without consent.’ I believe this exhibition is a tribute to the courage and generosity of those who volunteered to share their experiences and, in doing so, exposed this previously unknown aspect of Australia’s history.’ Without the voices of those affected, our nation’s history would rely totally on institutional records that show nothing of the human anguish such practices caused.’ Mr Fricker said he hoped the exhibition would show the truth – that the babies taken for adoption were dearly loved and wanted by their parents. One letter in the exhibition, from a mother to her son, read ‘I loved you so much it hurt, and I loved you much more than I loved myself; that was why I was prepared to sacrifice my happiness for yours’. The exhibition opening at the National Archives of Australia in Canberra was live streamed to Archives offices around the country and shared with stakeholders marking the occasion in other capital cities. Without Consent is on at the National Archives in Canberra until 19 July 2015.NOTE TO ED: High-res images can be downloaded from http://www.naa.gov.au/about-us/media/images/without-consent/index.aspx Facebook: facebook.com/naagovau Twitter: naagovau – ]]>
KPMG responds to release of Tax Discussion paper
MIL OSI – Source: KPMG – KPMG responds to release of Tax Discussion paper We welcome the paper‘s clear conclusion that company tax is too high and bracket creep a real issue. It is too often unappreciated that bracket creep is inherently regressive – it is not a problem just for middle to high earners. Similarly, we are glad to see the paper acknowledge that high company tax rates damage the interests of workers in the long run – there is considerable evidence to suggest that in a medium-sized open economy like Australia’s, a lower corporate tax rate would actually help workers by generating increased capital intensity, greater technology transfer, and R&D per employee. This would lead to greater productivity and hence higher wages. The government’s decision to require unanimous support of states and territories for changes on GST effectively consigns that to the medium future – but as the paper says, GST is an efficient tax and we look forward to the time, which must come, when the federal government does not feel so constrained. The paper notes the growing importance of spending on items not subject to the GST such as goods below $1000 and services sold online. This is a difficult issue and the Government is looking for solutions that do not carry a substantial compliance burden. On negative gearing, which so many people point to, once again the paper has taken a measured approach and pointed out that the problem lies in the CGT discount, not the interest deduction. It would seem unlikely the Government will seek to deny the ability to offset excess interest expenses related to rental income against salary income. The paper recognises the huge complexity for small business, in part created by concessions and different legal structures. We welcome moves to reduce administrative burdens on this sector. On a related matter, the Bank Deposit Levy, the Tax Discussion Paper correctly points out that bank accounts are already the highest taxed form of savings. The distortionary effects of the taxation of bank accounts was discussed in the Murray Report and it concluded that a more consistent basis of taxation of all savings would likely increase productivity. KPMG believes that any increased taxation burden on bank accounts in an environment where the ongoing consultation is canvassing a reduction would be premature and prejudge the tax discussion that today’s paper is intended to create. – ]]>
Welcoming peaceful Nigerian elections, Ban encourages patience as polls wrap up
MIL OSI – Source: United Nations – Welcoming peaceful Nigerian elections, Ban encourages patience as polls wrap up United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has congratulated the people and Government of Nigeria on the largely peaceful and orderly conduct of yesterday’s presidential and parliamentary elections. In a statement issued by his spokesperson, Mr. Ban condemnedthe attacks reportedly carried out by Boko Haram and others who attempted to disrupt the polling. “He is encouraged by the determination and resilience shown by the Nigerian people in pressing forward and exercising their civic duties in the face of unjustifiable violence.” The Secretary-General’s statement goes on to encourages all Nigerians to continue to maintain a peaceful atmosphere and to exercise patience throughout the ongoing voting process and the announcement of the final results. “He calls on all actors to channel any complaints that might arise through the established dispute resolution mechanisms,” the statement says, adding that the UN chief believes that the successful conclusion of the electoral process will mark an important step forward in further consolidating democracy and the rule of law in Nigeria. –]]>
Russian and Ukrainian parliamentarians discuss conflict resolution at OSCE PA-German Bundestag retreat
MIL OSI – Source: Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe – OSCE – Russian and Ukrainian parliamentarians discuss conflict resolution at OSCE PA-German Bundestag retreat LEINSWEILER, Germany – The OSCE Parliamentary Assembly and the German Bundestag hosted a retreat and seminar in Leinsweiler, Rhineland-Pfalz, Germany on 28 and 29 March to discuss conflict resolution strategies and hear from experts on German-French rapprochement and post-conflict border issues. The seminar facilitated one of the few direct meetings between Russian and Ukrainian parliamentarians since the crisis in and around Ukraine began. “A few weeks before the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II and in this 40th anniversary year of the Helsinki Final Act, we need to draw lessons from examples of reconciliation and post-conflict rehabilitation between neighbors,” said OSCE PA President Ilkka Kanerva (MP, Finland). “Despite the differences between the conflicts, the German-French example shows that conflicts can be resolved when there is political will and incentives to do so. I hope that my Russian and Ukrainian parliamentary colleagues can take lessons learned from history, and from this seminar, back to their capitals and be inspired to work hard for peace,” Kanerva added. The seminar was addressed by history experts and officials including the former Prime Minister of the state of Rheinland-Pfalz, Kurt Beck; the Head of the Taskforce for the 2016 German OSCE Chairmanship, Ambassador Antje Leendertse; County Chief Executive Theresia Riedmaier; and the Director of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), former German Foreign Office State Minister Michael Georg Link. On behalf of German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Ambassador Leendertse welcomed the efforts undertaken by the OSCE PA, which she described as a parliamentary parallel to the meetings of governments in the so-called “Normandy format” on the conflict in and around Ukraine. “In any conflict, both sides will be losers,” said former PA President and President of the Parliament of Montenegro Ranko Krivokapic. “In the present conflict in and around Ukraine, it is a particular tragedy that – in contrast to the historical German-French conflict – the peoples of Ukraine and Russia have been living peacefully side by side,” he added. The history experts noted that the German-French example demonstrates the strong desire of citizens affected by conflicts to preserve their cultural identity, their economic livelihoods and their personal freedoms, and that viewing conflicts primarily through military strategy has always led to crisis and even catastrophe. OSCE PA Vice-President Doris Barnett of Germany, who hosted the seminar, and fellow OSCE PA Vice-President Alain Neri of France concluded, “This is why we should not focus on the history of the conflict only, but rather, on possibilities for reconciliation and co-operation in the interest of all affected human beings.” The participants, including the members of the Russian and Ukrainian Delegations to the OSCE PA, welcomed the opportunity for an exchange of views on issues vital to the people affected by the current crisis and agreed to continue talks in support of full compliance with the Minsk Agreements and to help facilitate the resolution of the crisis in and around Ukraine. All participants insisted that local elections in the eastern part of Ukraine, as called for in the Minsk Agreements, must be held in line with OSCE commitments and monitored by election observers, with security guarantees for those observers. Participants also discussed the need to observe developments along the Russian-Ukrainian border in order to receive as much objective information as possible. The Leinsweiler retreat and seminar is part of the “Vienna Process,” which then-OSCE PA President Krivokapic launched in April 2014, following a proposal by Vice-President Barnett. At the 2014 OSCE PA Annual Session in July, OSCE PA President Kanerva also began work on the formation of a high-level Interparliamentary Liaison Group on Ukraine which aims to contribute to confidence-building and conflict resolution. “The Vienna Process aims to the create space for inter-parliamentary dialogue in an intimate setting. Such opportunities are badly needed for any attempt to address the current conflict in and around Ukraine and to achieve what is needed most – namely, to stop human suffering,” said Vice-President Barnett. Participants generally welcomed a suggestion by German OSCE parliamentarian Franz Thonnes, the Deputy Chair of the Bundestag’s Committee on Foreign Affairs, to have a follow-up meeting take place in the north of Germany with a focus on the protection of national minorities, looking at the German-Danish example. OSCE PA participants in the retreat and seminar included: Leadership President Ilkka Kanerva (Finland) President Emeritus Ranko Krivokapic (Montenegro) Vice-President and Head of the German Delegation Doris Barnett Vice-President and First Deputy Head of the French Delegation Alain Neri Russian Delegation Nikolay Kovalev Oganes Oganyan Ukrainian Delegation Nataliia Ahafonova Olha Belkova Sergey Vysotskyi Other parliamentarians Franz Thonnes (Germany) Josip Juratovic (Germany) Deputy Head of the Swiss Delegation Filippo Lombardi – – ]]>
iPredict: New Zealand Weekly Economic & Political Update
IPREDICT LTD: NEW ZEALAND WEEKLY ECONOMIC & POLITICAL UPDATE
BENNETT NOW CLEAR FAVOURITE TO SUCCEED KEY
Paula Bennett is now the clear favourite to succeed John Key as leader of the National Party after Steven Joyce’s prospects plunged to just 13%, only one point ahead of Jonathan Coleman, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. Mr Key’s medium-term hold on the leadership remains strong however, with only a 27% probability he will step down before the next General Election – although there is now a 77% chance he will be gone by the end of 2017. There is nearly a 50% probability New Zealand will sign the controversial Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2015 but just a 33% chance it will be ratified by the US Congress before mid-2017.
New Zealand Politics:
· John Key expected to remain National leader until at least the end of 2016 (79% probability, down from 88% last week) but has just a 23% probability of remaining National leader until at least the end of 2017 (down from 32% last week). Mr Key has a 73% probability of being National leader on Nomination Day before the next General Election (new stock)
· Andrew Little expected to remain Labour leader until at least the end of 2016 (95% probability, down from 97% last week) and has a 68% probability of remaining Labour leader until the end of 2017 (down from 72% last week). Mr Little has a 90% probability of being Labour leader on Nomination Day before the next General Election (new stock)
· Paula Bennett is the clear favourite to become National Party leader if a vacancy arises (35%, up from 33% last week), followed by Steven Joyce (13%, down from 26%) and Jonathan Coleman (12%)
· Stocks on who is favoured to become Labour Party leader if a vacancy arises will be launched in the near future
· Kevin Hague is strongly expected to be the next co-leader of the Green Party (82% probability, up from 62% last week), followed by James Shaw on 14%
· Judith Collins expected to be appointed to Cabinet before next election (55% probability, steady compared with last week)
· Next election expected in 2017 (92% probability, steady compared with last week)
· Forecast party vote shares at next election:
o National 44.2% (down from 45.1% last week)
o Labour 32.8% (up from 32.6%)
o Greens 11.0% (steady)
o NZ First 7.2% (up from 6.9%)
o Others 4.8% (up from 4.4%)
· National narrowly expected to win 2017 General Election (53% probability, down from 55% last week)
· Almost no chance Wellington councils will be amalgamated by end of 2015 (only 7% probability they will be, up from 6% last week)
New Zealand Economics:
· Fruit-fly outbreak expected to be contained with fewer than 20 Queensland fruit-flies expected to be found in New Zealand as part of current outbreak (82% probability, up from 79% last week)
· New Zealand dollar expected to reach parity with Australian dollar by the end of 2015 (55% probability, down from 57% last week) but not before July 2015 (20% probability, down from 23%)
· Quarterly GDP growth expected to be:
o 0.8% in the March quarter (steady compared with last week)
o 1.1% in the June quarter (steady)
o 1.1% in the September quarter (steady)
o 1.1% in the December quarter (steady)
· Annual growth expected to be 4.1% in the 2015 calendar year (steady compared with last week)
· Unemployment expected to be:
o 5.4% in the March quarter (steady compared with last week)
o 5.3% in the June quarter (steady)
o 5.2% in the September quarter (steady)
o 5.3% in the December quarter (steady)
· Current account deficit expected to be:
o 3.6% of GDP in the March quarter (steady compared with last week)
o 3.5% in the June quarter (steady)
o 3.4% in the September quarter (steady)
o 3.5% in the December quarter (new stocks)
· Annual inflation expected to be:
o 0.3% to end of March 2015 quarter (up from 0.2% last week)
o 0.4% to end of June 2015 quarter (steady)
o 0.6% to end of September 2015 quarter (steady)
o 1.0% to end of December 2015 quarter (steady)
· Official Cash Rate priced to be:
o 3.488% on 30 April (steady compared with last week)
o 3.475% on 11 June (steady)
o 3.458% on 23 July (up from 3.455%)
o 3.424% on 10 September (up from 3.417%)
o 3.405% on 29 October (up from 3.395%)
o 3.387% on 10 December (up from 3.377%)
o 3.377% on 28 January 2016 (up from 3.367%)
o 3.374% on 10 March 2016 (up from 3.364%)
o 3.364% on 28 April 2016 (up from 3.354%)
o 3.354% on 9 June 2016 (up from 3.344%)
· This implies the OCR is more likely than not to be cut on 28 January 2016 to 3.25% (steady compared with last week) and to remain at that rate until at least 9 June 2016 (steady)
· 28% probability of a fiscal surplus in 2014/15 (steady compared with last week)
· Fiscal balance expected to be:
o -0.14% of GDP in 2014/15 (up from -0.16% last week)
o 0.80% of GDP in 2015/16 (steady)
o 1.98% of GDP in 2016/17 (steady)
o 2.32% of GDP in 2017/18 (down from 2.43%)
· Fonterra’s final payout (before retentions) expected to be:
o $4.79 in 2014/15 (down from $4.82 last week)
o $5.86 in 2015/16 (down from $6.10)
o $6.43 in 2016/17 (down from $6.49)
Foreign Affairs/Constitution:
· Next UK Parliament expected to consist of:
o Conservatives 37.9% of seats in the House of Commons (steady compared with last week)
o Labour 35.3% of seats (steady)
o Nationalist parties 7.1% of seats (steady)
o UKIP and similar 6.0% of seats (steady)
o Liberal Democrats 5.2% of seats (down from 5.3%)
o Unionist parties 2.2% of seats (steady)
o Green and similar 2.1% of seats (steady)
o Independents and Speaker 2.1% of seats (steady)
o All others 2.2% of seats (steady)
· David Cameron expected to be prime minister after next UK election (58% probability, down from 63% last week)
· Boris Johnson expected to be elected to UK House of Commons this year (91% probability, steady)
· Socialist Workers’ Party expected to defeat People’s Party in next Spanish election (75% probability, up from 71% last week)
· All Eurozone countries, including Greece, expected to remain in Euro in 2015 (21% probability of an announcement of a departure this year, down from 23% last week)
· Tony Abbott is expected to remain leader of the Australian Liberal Party until 1 July 2015 (only 23% probability of departing before then, steady compared with last week) but be replaced as leader of the Australian Liberal Party by nomination day (53% probability Malcolm Turnbull will be leader on that day, up from 50% last week)
· Bill Shorten expected to be Labor leader at next Australian Federal election (86% probability, down from 88% last week)
· Liberals marginally ahead of Labor for next Australian Federal election in 2016 (53% probability of Liberal win, steady compared with last week)
· Hillary Clinton is favoured to be the Democratic Party’s nominee for US president in 2016 and to be elected to that office (49% probability, up from 47% last week). Jeb Bush has a 45% probability of being the Republican nominee (steady compared with last week) followed by Scott Walker (20% probability, up from 19%)
· There is a 48% probability New Zealand will sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership this year (up from 17% last week), but the Trans-Pacific Partnership is not expected to be ratified by the US Congress before 1 July 2017 (only 33% probability it will be, up from 31% last week)
· Helen Clark’s prospects of being the next UN Secretary General are 25% (steady compared with last week)
· There is a 10% probability New Zealand will become a republic by 2020 (steady compared with last week)
· Ireland to vote in favour of same-sex marriage before July 2015 (95% probability, steady compared with last week)
· There is a 17% probability Kim Jong-Un will cease being leader of North Korea before 2017 (down from 18% with last week)
Notes:
· iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz.
· The weekly economic and political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each week. This week’s was taken at 8.13 am today.
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]]>Keith Rankin on Games of Dominos: Selection, Rejection and Belief
Keith Rankin.[/caption]
ON Q+A LAST WEEKEND I heard Defence Minister Gerry Brownlee say “Terrorist organizations will sprout up all over the place, but this one needs to be seriously nipped in the bud”. And then I heard the New York Times‘ Marsha Gessen say “It is impossible to underestimate how much of a threat Putin is to the western world”. The first implies that a really heavy-handed military response to IS will somehow make us safer. And the second verges on implying something similar may be soon required to suppress Russian ambition.
The problem underlined by the quotes above is that the beliefs that underpin these statements may lead us into actions that substantially aggravate the problems such actions would be purportedly addressing.
It got me thinking about how we decide on a course of action, and about the principles of selection more generally. Essentially, I conclude, Darwinian natural selection, the scientific method, market forces and wilful blindness represent different aspects of the same mechanism. Essentially it’s a rejection mechanism.
In Darwinian natural rejection, the course of the future is moulded by death and a lack of sex. Your genes are not passed on if you die young, or if you die in circumstances that compromise the life chances of your descendants. And your genes are not passed on if you or your kin reproduce less sustainably than others with other genes. Which genes prove more successful varies in different environments.
Group selection/rejection also applies; groups made up of too many selfish individuals perish on account of their collectively unsustainable behaviour. Groups pursuing unsustainable strategies are less likely to survive than groups behaving sustainably. The most successful groups are those that can contain unsustainable tendencies that emerge within those groups.
In the scientific method, the principal criterion for rejection is empirical disproof. Thus carbon-14 techniques to measure the age of ancient biota disprove the long-held biblical hypothesis that the earth is less than 7,000 years old. When facts get in the way of beliefs, in the scientific method hypotheses are selected because dogmatic beliefs are rejected through factual evidence.
The scientific method is a creative and speculative method. Informed conjecture about anything represents a valid hypothesis if it is conceptually capable of being rejected but has not yet been rejected.
In historical analysis the scientific method requires a counterfactual that can only be argued; never measured. Thus if we ask whether the Reserve Bank’s inflation targeting monetary policies have reduced inflation rates, we cannot even begin to answer that question in the absence of a counterfactual scenario. Thus the best ‘truth’ should arise from the most plausible counterfactual. In the absence of contested counterfactuals, we only have faith. Indeed faith is all that underpinned anti-inflationary monetary policy.
Science is the selection mechanism that defines modernity. Yet the application of the scientific method to the ‘soft sciences’ has been very limited, because we have not yet got into the habit of creating contestable counterfactuals. We have no widely practised mechanism for rejecting beliefs that are most probably false.
In economics, selection takes place through markets. Again, it is really a rejection mechanism; your business does not survive if too few people buy your wares. Markets don’t just exist in the worlds of goods and services. There are, for example, relationship markets, which take us back to the sexual side of Darwinian selection. And there are markets for ideas, or ‘propositions’ of truth. Yet market failure reigns.
In markets, a ‘true’ idea is an idea that people will buy. More to the point, propositions are rejected if they are not able to be sold; and this often has little to do with how well argued a proposition is. A proposition will be rejected if it cannot engender an audience. A proposition may be rejected if it is drowned out by other propositions. A proposition is less likely to be rejected if it serves the interests of an influential group of buyers, regardless of its merit in any scientific sense. There are imbalances in the distribution of selection influence, as well as in the distribution of income.
Success in markets conforms with the selection principle of consumer sovereignty. Rejection takes place when a thing or an idea is unattractive to influential buyers. However, a new idea that becomes attractive to many uninfluential buyers may prevail over an old idea that remains attractive to a small number of influential buyers of ideas. The adoption of MMP voting in New Zealand was one such example. (Indeed democracy itself is such an idea, rejected for many centuries in the skewed marketplace of ideas.)
Finally wilful blindness represents a refusal to consider any choice other than a prior belief. It means that we are prone to reject anything that does not fit our preconceptions; in particular it means we will reject such things by subconsciously choosing not to even be aware of what we are rejecting. Thus our preconceived ideas – our beliefs – survive, and ideas that deign to challenge them generally do not. And this may be true even when there is a clear and present change in the information we are confronted with.
Remember those Iraqi “weapons of mass destruction”. They were so obviously a political ruse. Yet so many of us seemed to fall for it. The naïve mainstream media gave credibility to an obvious pretext for western aggression. It was our leaders who wanted to go to war, and we were so easily conned.
Then in economics there is the austerity con in Europe and elsewhere. The arguments for austerity are so obviously false; yet deep-seated beliefs prevent many from seeing the obvious. The people who suffer the least from austerity politics are among those most fearful of ideas that challenge the ethos of paid work and of individual (and political) thrift, even propositions and ideas that would benefit them. It took a great depression in the 1930s before the blindly interested minority could be persuaded to buy into those new-fangled Keynesian ideas. And even then, Keynes’ proposals to save capitalists from themselves were only ‘bought’ (ie not rejected) because of the sheer terror of a Stalinist alternative that they could not be blind to.
In New Zealand the Left indulged in a particularly blatant case of wilful blindness in the 1980s. The Roger Douglas Treasury line was a fraudulent pretext for enrichment by the selfish for the selfish. We bought it. We didn’t really believe that New Zealand pre-1984 was like Albania or Soviet-era Gdansk. But we allowed ourselves to consider uncool just about everything we had thought was good about pre-1984 New Zealand.
So what today about Gerry Brownlee and Marsha Gessen?
Does Brownlee really believe that the west’s martial approach to the Islamic State (IS) will somehow suppress the problem of “sprouting” terrorist organisations? The clear scientific evidence is that western counter-aggression will further fertilise the soil from which such extremism spreads. I don’t even think Brownlee is that wilfully blind; rather he speaks on behalf of the wilfully blind.
And what about Marsha Gessen’s warning about Vladimir Putin? I’ve seen this new Cold War talk as well from Francis Fukuyama, an intellectual whom I have some time for. There’s little doubt that Vladimir Putin is a politically ambitious man. But it does all humanity a disservice to overstate his ambition. He is a brutal and ruthless Russian nationalist seeking to create a strong Russian polity that answers to no outside force. He does not want to rule the whole world, but wishes Russia to maintain a position of strength within it. People in the west should beware of taking on overly belligerent beliefs about Russia and then acting on those beliefs, having needlessly rejected more sanguine and nuanced understandings of world politics.
In the 1960s we were subject to the Domino Theory which gave us the Vietnam War. Yet once Vietnam finally prevailed and was free (after 1980) to set its own course, we soon realised that Vietnam posed no danger to us, and that any vestigial dangers the Vietnam regime posed to its own people were short-lived. (And this despite an escalation of Cold War posturing in the early 1980s.) The Domino Theory was and is an obvious nonsense that needs to be continuously rejected. Ho Chi Minh never presented a danger to western liberal-democracy. The Vietnam War did create such a danger, however. Fortunately there were enough individually uninfluential people in the west to reject war and save liberal democracy from itself.
Let’s not create new Games of Dominos. Let’s reject the real dangers – inequality, deflationary miserliness and environmental havoc – and stop believing in the faux dangers of our easily-led imaginations.
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]]>Covering the net-beat for the dailies – The Guardian – lessons for NZ media & the left?
EVER SINCE MY VERY YOUNG DAYS in the 1950s listening to Night Beat on NZ radio, I have had a fairly romantic idea of investigative journalists. Night Beat was a bit of radio-noir, covering the fictional investigations of a “hard-boiled”, streetwise reporter for a US daily paper. Each story began:
Hi, this is Randy Stone. I cover the night beat for the Chicago Star. My stories start in many different ways. This one began…Such reporting always had a masculine edge, some of which still remains in news, current events, and political journalism today. The shifts towards digital media, with its webs of interconnected relationships, have opened up more possibilities for women, but there is still a way to go. The Guardian’s new chief editor – lessons for NZ media & the left The appointment of Katharine Viner as The Guardian’s first ever female chief editor raises important issues of the changing nature of news media in the digital age. [caption id="attachment_2410" align="alignleft" width="300"]
Katharine Viner. Photo: The Guardian[/caption]
Related to this are challenges for (left wing) politics, gender equality and global-local dynamics. Within this tangle, there are important indications for the NZ media (mainstream and alternative).
The Guardian is known to be a left leaning, liberal daily paper, yet has never before had a female chief editor. The range of UK papers contrast with the lack of diversity in the political leanings of NZ’s dailies, which are largely conservative, and hover around the middle ground of the political spectrum. The New Zealand Herald, has long been regarded as leaning to the centre right. The Otago Daily Times is the only exiting daily newspaper with a track record of supporting some left wing causes.
Along with NZ’s smallness of scale, is its openness to foreign influence, with most of our mainstream media companies now being owned by right leaning transnational media corporates.Some NZ dailies have female chief editors, but this is more on a par with small local newspapers in the UK, some of which also have female chief editors.
Many in NZ feel the left is under-represented in our mainstream media. Part of the solution to this, is to strengthen the base through developing relationships with alternative overseas media organisations and initiatives. At the same time there needs to be more sustainable and secure support for challenging and diverse news and current events content by, about and for New Zealanders.
The Guardian: internationalisation, investigative journalism & digitisation
The Guardian PR has foregrounded the gender aspect of Viner’s appointment along with her track record with digital media and in extending The Guardian’s reach beyond the UK. Michael Wolff of USA Today claims that Viner’s appointment is part of a staff backlash against the retiring Editor (Alan Rusbridger’s) support for the Guardian’s role in obtaining and publishing the Edward Snowden documents
Wolff claims that Viner’s appointment is a shift away from critical 4th estate journalism that holds those with political power to account. He argues it is a move towards a softer, more culturally focused approach by The Guardian. Seeming to contradict this, Henry Mace of the Financial Times has claimed that Viner is more leftwing than Rusbridger.
Few commentators comment on how events prior to Wikleaks and Snowden’s revelations had impacted on The Guardian. For instance, it began picking up a significant online US readership after the September 11, 2001 attacks on New York, and the subsequent invasion of Iraq. The US mainstream media tended to follow George Bush Jnr’s prescription, to be with his “war on terror” rather than against the power of the US elites. Many US people were looking for alternative takes on the events.
Later in 2009 The Guardian broke stories about the News of the World phone hacking scandal, which exposed political influences and unethical practices within Murdoch papers. Investigative journalist Nick Davies had a crucial role in this, and the later wikileaks stories, as explained by Rusbridger in Newsweek:
Every so often—perhaps once every 18 months—the veteran Guardian writer Nick Davies comes into my office, shuts the door with a conspiratorial backward glance, and proceeds to tell me something hair-raising.The Murdoch hacking revelations lead to the Leveson Inquiry, and its rather inadequate outcome, as well as to some setbacks for Rupert Murdoch. His News Corp still has a strong foothold in the Australian media. He has recently returned his attention to NZ media, taking a 14.9% shares in Sydney-based APN which owns NZ Herald. The Guardian comes from a different position. It was established in the 1820s when liberal values were gaining traction. This was well before the rise to prominence of the labour movement, working class solidarity and politics, and the Labour Party. The Guardian remains fairly liberal rather than being a voice for working class politics particularly. Katharine Viner’s pitch In her pitch for the editorship of The Guardian, Viner promoted herself as being for this radical tradition,
… holding power to account; defending liberties; exposing injustice.as well as for a focus on breaking news stories, international expansion, and strengthening The Guardian’s use of digital platforms. Whatever the backroom struggles, there is no doubt that Viner does have credentials in areas that need to be at the forefront of progressive and financially sustainable news media, now and in the future. Viner began her work for newspapers covering women’s and lifestyle topics. She was appointed to head the of the paper’s online expansion into Australia and the US. This also opened opportunities for Australian, and to a lesser extent NZ journalists, writing from a local perspective on local issues, but written for an international audience. (Toby Manhire of NZ Herald, article in Guardian.com.) Lessons for NZ media: strengthening the local (left) & international collaborations. [caption id="attachment_941" align="alignleft" width="300"]
Evening Report, Episode 1, Nicky Hager.[/caption]
There are other models indicating that NZ-overseas collaborations could work to strengthen NZ journalism, and particularly NZ progressive journalism, in a context where news media are struggling to survive financially. One outstanding example is the collaboration between Glenn Greenwald and his online news site The Intercept, and NZ news organisations and journalists, providing New Zealand angles on the Snowden papers. Internationally respected investigative journalist Nicky Hager is playing a significant role in this. He brings to it a deep understanding of NZ society and politics.
Towards gender equality
These are the kinds of collaborative initiatives that the NZ media and the left should be learning from. The one area that NZ (and other countries) could improve on here, is that our most renowned investigative journalists (especially with regard to current affairs, politics and international relations) are male. This is part of a long masculine legacy, but it is not clear why it hasn’t shifted more with our changing society. It is worth investigating.
Related articles/videos on Evening Report:
My article on the importance to democracy of Radio NZ and public service broadcasting.
Selwyn Manning’s interview with Nicky Hager on Snowden revelations
Selwyn Manning’s interview with Paul Buchanan on GCSB’s targeted ops.]]>
PNG: Critics slam new Bougainville mining law as ‘forgetting history’
MIL OSI Analysis – Pacific Media Centre/Pacific Media Watch
A file picture of the Bougainville parliamentary House. Image: Radio New Dawn FM
Friday, March 27, 2015
Item: 9186
Aloysius Laukai KUBU, Bougainville (Radio New Dawn FM/Pacific Media Watch): The controversial Bougainville Mining Bill has been passed by the Autonomous Bougainville Government parliament and has been immediately condemned by critics as “forgetting history”. The bill went through the thrd reading to become a Bougainville law yesterday. It has been adopted in spite of all the negotiations and dissatisfaction expressed by factions of the communities throughout Bougainville. The bill did not go unchallenged but was forced to go through scrutiny by former combatants who demanded certain sections to be removed before they could allow the government to finally pass the bill. At the time of the passing of the bill, the House was full to capacity as people witnessed the passing of the bill. The member for Central Bougainville and Minister for Communication in the Papua New Guinea National Government, Jimmy Miringtoro, told Radio New Dawn FM from Port Moresby that he was not happy that the ABG had rushed this bill through on the eve of the ABG general elections. He said the ABG should have left the bill to the next government after more scrutiny from all stakeholders on Bougainville. Miringtoro said that pushing the bill through was “not proper” as other outstanding issues were still not yet resolved on the future of mining on Bougainville. ‘Still in dark’ He said that from the beginning he had warned the ABG against the bill, especially when the people were “still in the dark” about how they might lose their rights form their land and resources forever. The minister also also said that the bill had been written by “outsiders” like Adam Smith International which had been involved in controversial development policies in the Third World. It was unfortunate the government did not “listen to the cries of the citizens”, Miringtoro said. The Australian-based Bougainville Freedom Movement also criticised the passing of the law. It challenged a speech by Bougainville President John Momis yesterday when he was quoted as saying: “With our new mining bill, we are completely rejecting that terrible past,” referring to the decade-long civil war over the Panguna copper mine and the envronmental degradation. “Does this mean that President Momis is forgetting his own history and the shocking history of Bougainville Copper Limited (BCL) in its mining operations on Bougainville and what the mining company did to the people of Bougainville and the environment?” said BFM in a statement. “It is a ‘terrible past’ and will not be forgotten but it should not be ‘rejected’.” Not once had the BCL or Rio Tinto mining companies ever apologised or compensated the people of Bougainville for the environmental devastation it caused and the “extremely wicked atrocities it inflicted on the people of Bougainville”, said BFM. The writs for the election were due to be issued by the Speaker, Andrew Miriki, later today.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 New Zealand Licence.
]]>NewsRoom Digest: Top NZ News Items for March 27, 2015
This edition of NewsRoom_Digest contains seven media release snippets and four links of the day from Friday 27 March.
Top stories in this news cycle currently include the Police watchdog finding numerous flaws in Police custody protocols, a group plans legal proceedings to halt an extension of wharfs by Ports of Auckland, and the last day of campaigning for the hotly contested Northland by-election.
SNIPPETS OF THE DAY
Police Custody Flaws: In releasing two reports today, the Independent Police Conduct Authority has highlighted a number of significant problems with the way in which Police deal with people who are detained in Police cells. The first report, entitled “Review of Police Custodial Management”, is a review of 31 complaints and incidents that have been referred to the Authority over the last three years, combined with more general enquiries undertaken by the Authority. “From the moment they take custody of a person, Police have a legal duty of care to take all reasonable steps to ensure that person’s wellbeing while they are in custody,” said Judge Sir David Carruthers, Independent Police Conduct Authority Chair.
Police Accepts IPCA Report: New Zealand Police accept the findings of two Independent Police Conduct Authority reports released today highlighting issues with the management of people in custody, and is continuing to work with the responsible agencies to address them. The reports include an investigation into the death of Sentry Taitoko in Police custody in Counties Manukau in February 2014, feeding into a wider review of Police custodial management. “Police accepts both reports’ findings, which highlight that there are a number of ongoing and recurring issues regarding the management of people in custody, particularly with regards to training, staff expertise and consistency of practice across the country,” says Acting Assistant Commissioner Response and Operations, Barry Taylor.
Labour: Transparency On Investor State Clauses: The Government must be more transparent around the draft investor state dispute settlements in the TPPA, says David Parker, Labour’s Export Growth and Trade spokesperson. “Labour is pro trade, and is proud of the FTA we negotiated with China, which includes well drafted ISDS provisions. We also support the FTA with South Korea. Some investor state dispute settlement provisions have enabled inappropriate claims by multi-national corporate investors for alleged losses suffered as a consequence of quite proper government decisions. We believe these sorts of ISDS provisions are inappropriate and should be avoided.”
Inflation Target Could Overheat Economy: Targeting 2 percent annual inflation could force the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut interest rates too sharply and overheat the economy, says Bank of New Zealand, which suggests current low global inflation rates mean the local target is “unreasonably high in the current climate.” “We wonder if the target band should be lowered from its current one to three percent or, in the least, that its lower reaches be tolerated as the ‘new normal’ for the foreseeable future,” writes senior economist Craig Ebert.
Crown Apologises To Ngāruahine: Minister for Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations Christopher Finlayson today delivered the Crown’s formal apology to Ngāruahine for historical breaches of the Treaty of Waitangi. The apology was delivered in Hokitika at the conclusion of Ngāruahine’s week-long Hikoi ki Te Waipounamu to honour the memory of the 405 members of those Ngāruahine tupuna who were transported to and detained in the South Island by the Crown after the Taranaki Wars.
Milk Powder Prices Expected To Fall: New Zealand whole milk powder futures dropped after Fonterra Cooperative Group said it will increase the volume of product it puts up for sale on the GlobalDairyTrade platform, suggesting prices may extend their decline in next week’s auction. Auckland-based Fonterra, the world’s largest dairy exporter, has increased the amount of whole milk powder it will offer at the upcoming April 1 auction in Contract 2, which covers product with a June shipping date, by 14 percent to 4,965 metric tonnes. Whole milk powder futures for June delivery dropped US$230 a tonne to US$2,400 a tonne today. At last week’s GDT auction, whole milk powder fell 9.6 percent to US$2,928 a tonne.
Faster Transfer Of Patient Information: Health Minister Jonathan Coleman says Southern DHB has now completed the South Island’s rollout of eReferrals, enabling faster more accurate transfer of patient information. “West Coast, South Canterbury and Nelson Marlborough DHBs replaced paper-based referrals with electronic referrals, and now Southern DHB has begun introducing the system,” says Dr Coleman. “More than half a million patient referrals from a GP to a hospital specialist have been sent electronically since Canterbury DHB launched the eReferrals system in 2012.
LINKS OF THE DAY
ACC REPORT CONFIRMS VOLATILITY: ACC’s latest quarterly report highlights the impact of short-term volatilities on the ACC scheme’s financial position. ACC’s second quarterly report for 2014/15 is available here: http://www.acc.co.nz/about-acc/reports-and-strategy/index.htm
SAVING ONE OF THE WORLD’S RAREST BIRDS: A University of Canterbury scientist is investigating ways to ensure the survival and recovery of critically endangered kakī (black stilt) in the wild. Dr Tammy Steeves is making recommendations to support the management of one of the world’s rarest birds, the kakī, which is a critically endangered endemic wading bird restricted to the Upper Waitaki Basin in the South Island. For more details on the kakī see: http://www.nzbirdsonline.org.nz/species/black-stilt.
INCREASING RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT EXPENDITURE: Businesses are spending more on research and development (R&D) and this expenditure is expected to rise again in 2015, Statistics New Zealand said today. Business expenditure on research and development (BERD) increased by $53 million to $1,246 million in 2014. The greatest increase came from the services industry, partly offset by decreases in R&D expenditure by the primary and manufacturing sectors (down $33 million and $14 million, respectively). Total expenditure on R&D in New Zealand remained around $2.6 billion in 2014, despite the increase in BERD, as R&D expenditure by the government and higher education (eg universities) sectors fell. See Research and Development Survey: 2014 for tables with more detailed industry and sector breakdowns: http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/businesses/research_and_development/ResearchandDevelopmentSurvey_HOTP2014.aspx
SWEDES FARMER RESULTS: The results of an in-depth farmer survey carried out to help understand the factors behind the toxic swedes issues that hit Southland dairy herds last year are expected to be available by the end of May. DairyNZ’s Southland regional leader Richard Kyte says DairyNZ interviewed 134 affected and unaffected farmers and 34 graziers last year as part of its study into why many cows became ill after feeding on swedes last season. The detailed interviews followed a general short survey of all dairy farmers that generated more than 400 replies. Analysis of all the survey data is now nearly complete. Information on the DairyNZ website to help farmers: www.dairynz.co.nz/swedes.
ONLINE BULLS TO HELP FARMERS: A new online bull team builder, developed by NZ Animal Evaluation Limited (NZAEL), a wholly-owned subsidiary of DairyNZ, will allow farmers to see the impact of genetic improvement on farm profit and team averages. Instead of flicking through catalogues to compare bulls; farmers will have all the information now available in one place, says NZAEL manager Dr Jeremy Bryant. “They will be able to visit the DairyNZ website and select bulls which meet their specific needs without compromising Breeding Worth (BW). Preferred traits might include enhanced BW, productivity, fertility, long-life, calving ease, conformation or temperament,” he says. For further details visit: http://www.dairynz.co.nz/bullteam
And that’s our sampling of the day that was on Friday 27th March 2015.
Brought to EveningReport by Newsroom Digest.
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French Alps Air Crash Causes New Zealand CAA to Tighten Flight-Deck Safety
MIL OSI – Source: CAA – French Alps Air Crash Causes NZ CAA to Tighten Flight-Deck Safety Following reports that have emerged regarding the tragic Germanwings incident in the French Alps, The Civil Aviation Authority is working closely with New Zealand based operators to review procedures relevant to: (1) the minimum number of people in the flight deck at any given time; and (2) the ongoing updating of medical checks and reports back to the CAA. Acting Director of Civil Aviation, John Kay said ‘Effective today the CAA requires large jet aircraft operators in New Zealand to ensure they have a minimum of two people in the flight deck at any given time. This applies to domestic and International flights. This new stipulation recognises that temporary inflight incapacitation could occur for a number of reasons, including a medical event.’ ‘The CAA takes a precautionary approach on such matters in the interests of safety.’ ‘All New Zealand airline pilots undergo extensive and recurrent medical assessments to determine their fitness to hold a licence. As part of this, aeromedical examiners are required to assess a commercial pilot’s physical and mental health at each medical examination which, for an airline pilot flying with at least one other pilot, is undertaken annually. These detailed medical assessments are in-line with international aviation standards.’ Mr. Kay said. ‘The CAA’s stance is that flight crew need to be medically fit in order to fly.’ He said. ‘Our view is also that well treated medical conditions, in established remission, and/or those conditions that are well managed by taking reliably safe medication, may be eligible to return to aviation.’ Mr. Kay said ‘A pilot’s medical certificate can be suspended while determining their medical fitness to fly. It is unlikely that someone who has a medical or behavioural condition of concern would be considered as being fit to hold a medical certificate.’ (Relevant medical requirements are below). In addition, to hold a licence a pilot must remain ‘fit and proper’. When assessing an individual’s fit and proper status the Civil Aviation Act allows the Director of Civil Aviation to take into account any history of mental health of serious behavioural problems. ‘As with medical certificates the CAA will always take a precautionary approach on such matters.’ Mr. Kay concluded ‘We will closely monitor the situation as the Germanwings investigation continues and review our current requirements if any need improving or updating.’ –]]>
iPredict New Zealand Weekly Economic and Political Update
MIL OSI – Source: iPredict – iPredict New Zealand Weekly Economic and Political Update
PETERS TRIUMPHANT; KEY WEAKENS; SHAW EMERGES
NZ First leader Winston Peters is expected to win the Northland by-election tomorrow with a majority of 1394, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. Prime Minister John Key’s position has weakened, and he now has only a 32% probability of remaining National Party leader through to the end of 2017. James Shaw has emerged as a contender for the Green Party co-leadership, with a 27% probability of winning the job behind favourite Kevin Hague. The Official Cash Rate is now expected to remain on hold until January next year. Fonterra’s final payouts (before retentions) are expected to be $4.82 on 2014/15, rising to $6.10 in 2015/16 and $6.49 in 2016/17. National remains favoured to win the next General Election with 55% probability.
New Zealand Politics:
· NZ First leader Winston Peters is now overwhelmingly expected to win the Northland by-election (84% probability, up from 77% last week), ahead of National’s Mark Osborne (14% probability, down from 23%). Mr Peters’ majority is expected to be 1394
· James Shaw has emerged as a contender to be the next male co-leader of the Green Party, with 27% (up from 5% last week). Kevin Hague remains favoured with 62% probability (down from 90%)
· John Key is strongly expected to remain National leader until at least the end of 2016 (88% probability, up from 77% last week) but just a 32% probability of remaining National leader until at least the end of 2017 (down sharply from 51% last week)
· Andrew Little is overwhelmingly expected to remain Labour leader until at least the end of 2016 (97% probability, up from 82% last week) and has a 72% probability of remaining Labour leader until the end of 2017 (up from 39% last week). There is a 55% probability he will still be Labour leader by the end of 2020
· Stocks on who will be National and Labour leaders on Nomination Day for the next General Election have been launched today
· Paula Bennett remains favourite to become National Party leader if a vacancy arises (33%, up from 30% last week), followed by Steven Joyce (26%, up from 25%)
· Stocks on who is favoured to become Labour Party leader if a vacancy arises will be launched in the near future
· Judith Collins expected to be appointed to Cabinet before next election (55% probability, down from 73% last week)
· Next election expected in 2017 (92% probability, steady compared with last week)
· Forecast party vote shares at next election:
o National 45.1% (steady compared with last week)
o Labour 32.6% (up from 32.4%)
o Greens 11.0% (steady)
o NZ First 6.9% (steady)
o Others 4.4% (down from 4.6%)
· National expected to win 2017 General Election (55% probability, steady compared with last week)
· Almost no chance Wellington councils will be amalgamated by end of 2015 (only 6% probability they will be, down from 9% last week)
New Zealand Economics:
· Fruit-fly outbreak expected to be contained with fewer than 20 Queensland fruitflies expected to be found in New Zealand as part of current outbreak (79% probability, up from 65% last week)
· New Zealand dollar expected to reach parity with Australian dollar by the end of 2015 (57% probability, down from 62% last week) but not before July 2015 (23% probability, up from 12%)
· Quarterly GDP growth expected to be:
o 0.8% in the March quarter (up from 0.7% last week)
o 1.1% in the June quarter (steady)
o 1.1% in the September quarter (steady)
o 1.1% in the December quarter (steady)
· Annual growth expected to be 4.1% in the 2015 calendar year (up from 4.0% last week)
· Unemployment expected to be:
o 5.4% in the March quarter (steady compared with last week)
o 5.3% in the June quarter (steady)
o 5.2% in the September quarter (steady)
o 5.3% in the December quarter (steady)
· Current account deficit expected to be 3.6% of GDP in the March quarter (up from 3.5% last week), 3.5% in the June quarter (up from 3.4%) and 3.4% in the September quarter (steady)
· Annual inflation expected to be:
o 0.2% to end of March 2015 quarter (steady compared with last week)
o 0.4% to end of June 2015 quarter (steady)
o 0.6% to end of September 2015 quarter (down from 0.7%)
o 1.0% to end of December 2015 quarter (steady)
· Official Cash Rate priced to be:
o 3.488% on 30 April (down from 3.493% last week)
o 3.475% on 11 June (down from 3.480%)
o 3.455% on 23 July (down from 3.460%)
o 3.417% on 10 September (down from 3.419%)
o 3.395% on 29 October (steady)
o 3.377% on 10 December (down from 3.381%)
o 3.367% on 28 January 2016 (down from 3.371%)
o 3.364% on 10 March 2016 (up from 3.357%)
o 3.354% on 28 April 2016 (up from 3.347%)
o 3.344% on 9 June 2016 (up from 3.337%)
· This implies the OCR is more likely than not to be cut on 28 January to 3.25% (compared with 29 October last week) and to remain at that rate until at least 9 June 2016 (steady)
· 28% probability of a fiscal surplus in 2014/15 (down from 30% last week)
· Fiscal balance expected to be:
o -0.16% of GDP in 2014/15 (down from -0.11% last week)
o 0.80% of GDP in 2015/16 (steady)
o 1.98% of GDP in 2016/17 (steady)
o 2.43% of GDP in 2017/18 (up from 2.38%)
· Fonterra’s final payout (before retentions) expected to be:
o $4.82 in 2014/15
o $6.10 in 2015/16
o $6.49 in 2016/17
Foreign Affairs/Constitution:
· Next UK Parliament expected to consist of:
o Conservatives 37.9% of seats in the House of Commons (down from 38.0% last week)
o Labour 35.3% of seats (down from 35.4%)
o Nationalist parties 7.1% of seats (up from 6.8%)
o UKIP and similar 6.0% of seats (steady)
o Liberal Democrats 5.3% of seats (steady)
o Unionist parties 2.2% of seats (steady)
o Green and similar 2.1% of seats (steady)
o Independents and Speaker 2.1% of seats (steady)
o All others 2.2% of seats (steady)
· David Cameron expected to be prime minister after next UK election (63% probability, down from 65% last week)
· Boris Johnson expected to be elected to UK House of Commons this year (91% probability, steady)
· Socialist Workers’ Party expected to defeat People’s Party in next Spanish election (71% probability, steady compared with last week)
· All Eurozone countries, including Greece, expected to remain in Euro in 2015 (23% probability of an announcement of a departure this year, up from 16% last week)
· New South Wales Liberal/National Coalition expected to win most seats in NSW state election (94% probability, up from 92% last week)
· Tony Abbott is expected to remain leader of the Australian Liberal Party until 1 July 2015 (only 23% probability of departing before then, down from 27% last week) but be replaced as leader of the Australian Liberal Party by nomination day (50% probability Malcolm Turnbull will be leader on that day, steady compared with last week)
· Bill Shorten expected to be Labor leader at next Australian federal election (88% probability, up from 87% last week)
· Liberals marginally ahead of Labor for next Australian Federal election in 2016 (53% probability of Liberal win, steady compared with last week)
· Hillary Clinton is favoured to be the Democratic Party’s nominee for US president in 2016 and to be elected to that office (47% probability, up from 44% last week). Jeb Bush has a 45% probability of being the Republican nominee (steady compared with last week) followed by Scott Walker (19% probability, steady)
· There is only a 17% probability New Zealand will sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership this year (down from 20% last week), and the Trans-Pacific Partnership is not expected to be ratified by the US Congress before 1 July 2017 (only 31% probability it will be, steady compared with last week)
· Helen Clark’s prospects of being the next UN Secretary General are 25% (up from 23% last week)
· There is a 10% probability New Zealand will become a republic by 2020 (steady compared with last week)
· Ireland to vote in favour of same-sex marriage before July 2015 (95% probability, steady compared with last week)
· There is an 18% probability Kim Jong-Un will cease being leader of North Korea before 2017 (steady compared with last week)
Notes:
· iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz.
· The weekly economic and political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each week. This week’s was taken at 11.48 am today.
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]]>Deaths While In Police Custody: IPCA review identifies significant problems in Police custody practices
MIL OSI – Source: Independent Police Conduct Authority – Headline: Deaths While In Police Custody: IPCA review identifies significant problems in Police custody practices
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Speech Notes: Judge Sir David Carruthers, Independent Police Conduct Authority Chair (pdf).
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IPCA Report: Review of Police Custodial Management
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IPCA Report: Death in Police custody of Sentry Taitoko
TPPA Investment leak: Jacobi misleads about protections for NZ – Prof Kelsey
MIL OSI – Source: Professor Jane Kelsey – TPPA Investment leak: Jacobi misleads about protections for NZ
[caption id="attachment_1844" align="alignleft" width="200"]
Professor Jane Kelsey.[/caption]
On Radio NZ’s Morning Report Stephen Jacobi said New Zealand would have protections from obligations in the investment chapter of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) that were not part of the text posted by Wikileaks yesterday.
‘That is misleading’, according to Professor Jane Kelsey who specialises in international investment agreements.
‘It is true that the leak did not include annexes of so-called non-conforming measures, so we don’t know what New Zealand has proposed, what has been accepted and what is still under discussion.’
‘But even if we assume hypothetically that the other eleven parties, including the US, allow New Zealand to include everything the government does, now and in the future, through these annexes (which they will not), that won’t protect us.’
Professor Kelsey points out that these annexes only apply to some of the rules in the chapter. They do not apply to the rules that foreign investors rely most on to sue governments, for example in current investment disputes over Australia’s plain packaging of cigarettes, Quebec’s moratorium on fracking, or the Canadian courts’ denial of a patent for a medicine.[i]
Stephen Jacobi’s second argument is that these agreements have general exceptions in another chapter that would protect areas like public health and environment.
‘Mr Jacobi must know that the US has never agreed that the general exception provision should apply to the investment chapter in its previous agreements’, Kelsey said.
‘Having followed the negotiations closely for the past five years I can see nothing to suggest that position has changed.’
‘Any concessions the US did make in this area would be in the investment chapter itself. But what we see in the leaked text is a cut-down version of the standard general exception that applies to only to aspects of the rule on performance requirements.’[ii]
There is also a circular provision that the chapter shall not be constructed to prevent the government taking any measure that is otherwise consistent with the chapter.[iii]
Several other very specific exceptions exclude decisions made by the Overseas Investment Office[iv] and a weak annex on expropriation.[v]
Clearly, Australia considers its equivalent of Pharmac is vulnerable to the investment rules, because it has proposed a specific Annex to protect decisions by those various agencies.[vi]
‘These errors reinforce the need for the government formally to release the text now so we can have a properly informed debate, including expert analysis, that allows New Zealanders to assess the real implications of this for themselves’, Kelsey said.
[i] Article II.6 Minimum Standard of Treatment and Article II.7 Expropriation and Compensation
[ii] Article II.9.3(c)
[iii] Article 11.15
[iv] Annex II-H
[v] Annex II-B
[vi] Annex II-M
]]>Business expenditure on R&D continues to rise – Statistics NZ
MIL OSI – Source: Statistics New Zealand – Business expenditure on R&D continues to rise Businesses are spending more on research and development (R&D) and this expenditure is expected to rise again in 2015, Statistics New Zealand said today. Business expenditure on research and development (BERD) increased by $53 million to $1,246 million in 2014. The greatest increase came from the services industry, partly offset by decreases in R&D expenditure by the primary and manufacturing sectors (down $33 million and $14 million, respectively). Total expenditure on R&D in New Zealand remained around $2.6 billion in 2014, despite the increase in BERD, as R&D expenditure by the government and higher education (eg universities) sectors fell. As well as the increase in business expenditure, the 2014 survey also found the number of businesses performing R&D had increased. Fifty-eight more businesses performed R&D in 2014 than in 2012, taking the total to 1,549. “Computer services is now the biggest spender on R&D of any business type, and has surpassed machinery and equipment manufacturing,” business performance manager Jason Attewell said. “Service industries account for two-thirds of the New Zealand economy, but only some of these businesses have R&D activity.” Within the services industry, computer services had the largest increase – up from $221 million in 2012 to $311 million in 2014, a 41 percent increase. This includes activities such as hardware and software development, programming, and consulting services. The Research and Development Survey measures expenditure on R&D based on international definitions. However, it also asks about respondents’ expectations of future R&D expenditure. “Almost half of businesses in the survey expect to increase their R&D activity in the coming year. A further one-third expect their level of activity to remain the same,” Mr Attewell said. The Research and Development Survey is conducted every two years. See Research and Development Survey: 2014 for tables with more detailed industry and sector breakdowns. –]]>
Radio: A New Zealand V Aussie Cricket World Cup Final + Nats Set to Lose Key Seat
Evening Report’s editor Selwyn Manning joins FiveAA Australia’s Mark Aiston, Jane Reily and Dave Penberthy on the Breakfast show to deliver New Zealand Report. First up Cricket… ITEM ONE: Australia has beaten India to take on New Zealand in the Cricket World Cup final at the MCG in Australia on Sunday. Let’s talk Cricket! ITEM TWO: The National-led Government is predicted to suffer a humiliating loss as voters go to the polls this weekend in a key rural by-election. The Northland seat has been a National Party stronghold for decades but two significant polls in two days are predicting the Nationals candidate, Mark Osborne is 18 percentage points behind the wily New Zealand First leader, Winston Peters. When it comes to politicians, Peters is as a shred as they come. For three election cycles, Peters has been yearning to win an electorate. He and his party’s MPs won seats in Parliament as list MPs under New Zealand’s electoral Mixed Member Proportional voting system. And due to scandals and arrogance, the Nationals have handed their conservative nemesis the Northland electorate on a plate. Years of neglect have caused anger in the region. The Nationals committed a fatal strategic mistake sending posses of suited and slick ‘flash Harry’ urban types up to the rural electorate to door knock the shakes and homesteads of Northland. It seems voters have defined that as arrogant. And, the strategic blunders have caused rifts among the various factions inside the National Party. (For reference see: Evening Report’s analysis: State Of It – Factional Fractures In Evidence As National Loss In Northland Looms) But the real reason for the Nationals’ demise, is due to the resignation of the former MP for this seat. Mike Sabin, a former Police officer, was forced to resign after Police announced there was a prima facie case for him to defend in the courts. Details of the type of assault alleged have been suppressed by the Courts. If Winston Peters does win on Saturday, that will cool the Government’s legislative agenda and force it to present to the House more centrist, less neoliberal right bills. The Government can still be assured of confidence and supply support from the United Future and Maori Parties, but the power swings into their more moderate brands of politics, and leaves the ACT Party on the far right economically, as irrelevant. New Zealand Report broadcasts live weekly on FiveAA.com.au and webcasts on EveningReport.nz. –]]>
Top News-Cycle Items: NewsRoom_Digest for 26 March 2015
NewsRoom_Digest for 26 March 2015
This edition of NewsRoom_Digest contains six media release snippets and seven links of the day from Thursday 26 March.
Top stories in this news cycle currently include the the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security announces an inquiry into GCSB spying in the Pacific, the Government changes employment laws to crack down on the exploitation of vulnerable workers, and the acting head of the Health Ministry, Chai Chuah, is appointed as permanent head of the department.
SNIPPETS OF THE DAY
IGIS Inquiry Into Pacific Spying Allegations: The Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security, Cheryl Gwyn, will commence an inquiry into complaints over alleged interception of communications of New Zealanders working or travelling in the South Pacific by the Government Security Communications Bureau (GCSB). The complaints follow recent public allegations about GCSB activities. The complaints, and these public allegations, raise wider questions regarding the collection, retention and sharing of communications data.
Labour: Sink In National’s Spending Spin: Massive pay rises at the State Services Commission prove National’s claims of clamping down on spending in the public sector are simply fantasy, Labour’s State Services spokesman Kris Faafoi says. “The Government is speaking out of both sides of its mouth on spending in the public sector. On one hand its warning frontline workers such as nurses and teachers not to expect pay rises, yet up the road at the State Services Commission salaries went up by an average of $13,000 in one year.”
Monarchy Succession Laws Updated: Today, at a special meeting of the Executive Council, the Governor-General of New Zealand promulgated the Royal Succession Act Commencement Order 2015. The Royal Succession Act 2013 was passed in December 2013 to implement several important changes needed to modernise the monarchy. These changes included the introduction of gender equality and removed religious discrimination.
Stronger Employment Safeguards: Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Michael Woodhouse today announced a package of measures to strengthen enforcement of minimum employment standards. “Employers are the backbone of our economy and most do a great job in meeting their employment obligations, but there are a number of serious breaches occurring,” Mr Woodhouse says. The changes include tougher sanctions, increased tools for labour inspectors, and clearer record keeping requirements.
Reforms Saving Taxpayer Money: Associate Minister for Social Development Jo Goodhew has welcomed news that since benefit fraud reform initiatives began two years ago, up to $60 million of taxpayers’ money has been saved. “Over the past two and a half years around 9,500 benefits have been cancelled after fraudulent and illegitimate payments were discovered. These changes hold people to account for their actions, and make it difficult to defraud the welfare system,” Mrs Goodhew says.
NZDF Continues Vanuatu Relief Work: The New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) sealift and amphibious support ship HMNZS CANTERBURY has arrived in Port Vila carrying further aid to support Vanuatu’s recovery from the devastation caused by Tropical Cyclone Pam. HMNZS CANTERBURY will offload 150 tonnes of food and other supplies at Port Vila before loading aid including hygiene packs and water purification equipment, destined for Epi Island and others in the Shepherd Islands group about 100 kilometres north of Port Vila.
LINKS OF THE DAY
RESERVE BANK BULLETIN: The Reserve Bank today published two articles in the Reserve Bank Bulletin. The Bulletin’s first article discusses the risks created by high and rapidly rising levels of household debt. Read the Bulletin at:
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research_and_publications/reserve_bank_bulletin/2015/
BRIBERY AND CORRUPTION REPORT: Domestic bribery and corruption is both a real and growing issue in New Zealand that organisations ignore at their peril, according to a Trans-Tasman survey released to business audiences in Wellington and Auckland today. The 2015 Deloitte Bribery and Corruption Survey canvassed the views of 269 public and private sector organisations across New Zealand and Australia and found that an alarming 23% of respondents reported experiencing one or more known instances of domestic corruption in the last five years. Of these more than half occurred in the last twelve months. To read the full report, go to http://www.deloitte.com/nz/corruption.
EBOLA ONE YEAR ON: The International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement has launched a campaign – Words Against Ebola – to promote knowledge and awareness, alleviate fear, overcome complacency, and create a community of global support to bring Ebola cases down to zero. Kiwi aid worker, Corinne Ambler who is currently working for the International Federation of Red Cross in West Africa, writes about her experiences and the word she is using to fight Ebola in her latest blog:
https://www.redcross.org.nz/blog/from-the-field/stopping-ebola-with-courage/
RENEWABLE ENERGY USE RISES: Energy and Resources Minister Simon Bridges says new figures showing renewable energy contributed almost 80 percent of New Zealand’s electricity generation last year are very encouraging. At 79.9 percent, the share of renewable electricity generation in 2014 is the highest it has been since 1996. The figures were released today in the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s December quarter 2014 edition of the NZ Energy Quarterly, which is available here:
http://www.med.govt.nz/sectors-industries/energy/energy-modelling/publications/new-zealand-energy-quarterly
REGIONAL TOURISM INDICATORS RELEASED: Today, the Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment released the Regional Tourism Indicators (RTI) for February 2015. The RTI are based on electronic card transaction data and provide regular updates on both international and domestic tourism expenditure at a regional level. For more detailed information on the RTI series:
http://www.med.govt.nz/sectors-industries/tourism/tourism-research-data/regional-tourism-indicators?utm_source=Data20Alerts&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Regional20Tourism20Indicators2020February202015
HIGH NUMBER APPLY FOR TEACHER FUND: Education Minister Hekia Parata has welcomed the more than 200 applications for the first round of the $10 million Teacher-led Innovation Fund. The new fund is part of the government’s $359 million Investing in Educational Success Initiative and provides funding for teachers to develop innovative ideas to be put into practice and shared across schools. “The high number of applications received reflects the passion and commitment of teachers to develop further good practice and share some of the great ideas and successes that are already happening in many kura and schools across the country,” says Ms Parata. More information can be found here:
http://www.education.govt.nz/ministry-of-education/specific-initiatives/investing-in-educational-success/teacher-led-innovation-fund/
PRIME MINISTER’S BUSINESS SCHOLARSHIPS OPEN:
Economic Development Minister Steven Joyce is encouraging senior managers, executives and business owners who want to expand their international expertise to apply for the 2015 Prime Minister’s Business Scholarships. Entries open today for the scholarships, which cover up to 50 percent of the course-related costs of attending an international learning institution. They are designed to grow skills and business capability to make New Zealand firms more internationally competitive, Mr Joyce says.Applications for the scholarships close on 11 May 2015. For more information: www.mbie.govt.nz/what-we-do/prime-ministers-business-scholarships
And that’s our sampling of the day that was on Thursday 26th March 2015.]]>
State Of It: Factional Fractures In Evidence As National Loss In Northland Looms
Politics is a science. And when you create a vacuum an opponent will occupy it. By Selwyn Manning.
IRRESPECTIVE OF THE FINAL COUNT, Auckland-based National Party insiders say there will be three losers once the by-election votes are counted, and they are: John Key, Steven Joyce and the National Party itself. That’s the scornful assessment by some well positioned National Party conservatives who insist fractional fractures are in evidence among National Party loyalists as Northland voters prepare go to the polls in the Peters versus National by-election.
They say many have become disillusioned with the Party’s leadership: most recently, with the party’s campaign strategy, and formerly, with the values and judgment calls by their leader John Key. Only a week ago, National contacts in Auckland were still hopeful of a victory. But that hope began to ebb after campaign manager Steven Joyce, and his team led by Jo de Joux and Chris Bishop, decided to deploy a posse of ‘flash Harry’ Auckland-based urban Nats to the far north for a ‘shack-door-knocking’ drive.
Fourteen days ago, Steven Joyce’s message to the campaign team was, they had 10 days to turn a National Party loss into a win. Despite a huge telephone-canvassing effort in recent days, teams of shack-door-knockers deployed to the region on the weekend, and an unprecedented effort to where high-profile MPs and Ministers descended on Northland “within the comfort of their Ministerial cars”, Joyce above all others looks set to take the blame for a loss of a once safe Tory seat.
On Wednesday evening the 3News Reid Poll tweaked National’s fears. The poll recorded Winston Peters on 54 percent, “well ahead of his closest rival – National’s Mark Osborne, who’s stranded on 34 percent”. The 3News poll confirmed what pundits were hearing about National’s own internal polls, which, two weeks ago, hinted that the campaign was too close to call. But as polling day loomed, National’s polling suggested Peters was pulling ahead and despite National’s efforts, a preferential shift in favour of Peters was observed. So John Key made an early return from his trip to South Korea and Japan and headed straight to Northland. But as Fairfax’s Tracey Watkins reported:
Prime Minister John Key has faced a rocky start to his Northland by-election tour. Key arrived in Dargaville just hours after touching down in Auckland from Japan. But within minutes of hitting the streets in Dargaville, Key was confronted by locals complaining about issues including local court services.
Reasons For The Loyalty Shift:
The reasons for the shift in loyalties has National’s “conservative rump” angry. For years, big local issues have been either ignored or treated as trivial or low priority.
One National Party insider told me Joyce’s strategies underscore the perception of arrogance displayed by National MPs. He said Joyce’s strategies are failing.
Primary among the failures was to send urban campaigners to an estranged rural seat: “That was foolish. That tactic looked sure to inspire a solid turnout of voters, but few of them will be voting National,” he said.
He added that Joyce’s decision to swamp Northland with suits and ministerial cars has become a metaphor for how distant the National Party leadership team has become from the real world.
Two weeks ago, a National Party contact said: “I suspect we are in a fairly poor state in Northland, it won’t be easily held, it could be very close or maybe even a loss. “Steven Joyce has thrown everything into it, his ‘groupies’ Chris Bishop and Jo de Joux are running the show.
If Winston wins it will create recriminations that will linger for a long time and damage the Prime Minister’s reputation. I suspect Willow-Jean Prime’s vote will collapse.”
Two weeks later that contact said: “The conservative rump in National is quite scornful of the party’s performance in Northland. This is the Joyce show. Grant McCallum, the board member who got stitched up in the selection is very bitter.
He won’t be around for long.” The comment speaks of political vendettas that have been dealt. During the candidate selection process prior to the 2014 General Election, Grant McCallum was believed by National insiders to have blocked candidates in the greater Auckland region who were loyal to Judith Collins and her faction.
McCullum’s power-base is Northland. And Collins loyalists bided their time and blocked him from getting his way during the National Party Northland candidacy selections.
The most Machiavellian of them suggest a loss in Northland will diminish Steven Joyce’s power, create instability for the leader John Key, and demonstrate that they cannot control the party outside of Wellington.
In simple terms, National is demonstrating third term disconnect, division among its factions, and pomposity and arrogance – something the newly re-elected Prime Minister John Key warned his party about in his post-election speeches.
Another contact said on the weekend: “The campaign is going better now but two weeks ago it was mayhem. And ministerial limos racing Ministers around Northland doesn’t help.”
He added: “Cunning Winston has a big blue bus.” He pointed out: “The Peters whanau is well respected there (in Northland). Its also married into the equally well respected Bruce Gregory whanau.”
And Labour’s more centrist leaning networks, who are loyal to Dover Samuels et al “will repay Winston for his endorsement of Kelvin Davis (Peters gave the nod to Davis in the latter stages of the 2014 Te Tai Tokerau General Election).
A Question of Values and Judgment: The National Party insiders say there are “many questions” circulating among the Nats, including: (a) John Key’s judgment and credibility after the 2014 win particularly his promotion of former MP Mike Sabin to chair the Law and Order Select Committee. (b) Joyce’s “diabolical mismanagement of the Northland by-election campaign”.
Regarding Joyce: “There are really brutal comments flowing from some quarters.”
But the estrangement between John Key and significant power-brokers within the Party’s Auckland factions is surprising.
One contact said: “John Key’s judgment is now being questioned, specifically with Key giving Sabin a safe harbour (post election) and support for his 2014 selection… despite the swirl of rumour concerning those matters that are now subject to a police investigation and charges.”
He insisted: The Judith Collins/Maurice Williamson faction will be watching this.”
Accordingly, among the Auckland-based Nats, Collins and Williamson are both of a view that Key has become soft when handling politically delicate matters among those who remain loyal to him.
A week ago, one contact said: “This goes to judgment, and the PM’s judgment will cost him.
New Zealand First will be empowered even if it loses.” By Thursday (two days before polls close in on the by-election), the contact said: “The polls in Northland aren’t great. But National’s ground-game will suffer a shocking result.
“I still think the result will be relatively close, but the problem is the legacy of Sabin and the loss of trust. This goes back a long way and relates to 9th floor conduct, cynical party behaviour, the Joyce-approach to campaigns and the divisions within the party.
“The basic problem is the party has taken a pounding over Sabin and years of neglect in Northland,” he said. He hopes “the ground-game” will keep the result a bit tighter for National. But he adds: “Winston and Andrew Little have out-foxed Joyce.” And that fact, irrespective of who wins on Saturday night spells a LOSS in capital letters for Steven Joyce and John Key.
See Also:
State Of It: Politics, Yes. Leadership, Yes. But Does NZ First Have the Infrastructure to Become the Rural Bloc Option?
KiwiSaver HomeStart Bill passes – IRD
MIL OSI – Source: Inland Revenue Department – KiwiSaver HomeStart Bill passes The Taxation (KiwiSaver HomeStart and Remedial Matters) Bill passed its third reading today and now awaits Royal assent. Building and Housing Minister Dr Nick Smith and Revenue Minister Todd McClay today welcomed Parliament’s passage of the Taxation (KiwiSaver HomeStart and Remedial Matters) Bill, which will allow eligible KiwiSaver members to access more of their KiwiSaver funds to purchase their first home. “These changes to KiwiSaver and the new HomeStart grant will open the door for 90,000 young New Zealanders over the next five years to own their own home,” Dr Smith says. “The passage of this Bill will extend the current KiwiSaver withdrawal rules for first home buyers, so that eligible KiwiSaver members will be able to withdraw the annual member tax credit paid by the Government as well as their own contributions and those made by their employers,” Mr McClay says. This means that eligible KiwiSaver members will now have access to up to an extra $521 for each year they have contributed to the scheme to put towards the deposit on their first home. “Often, the biggest challenge faced by prospective first home buyers is pulling together the deposit. The measures contained in this Bill will provide a welcome boost,” Mr McClay says. The Government’s $1,000 kick-start is not included in the changes in order to keep the KiwiSaver member’s account open and active after the withdrawal of eligible funds. The Bill implements one part of the Government’s new support package for first home buyers which was announced in August 2014. The KiwiSaver HomeStart package, which comes into effect 1 April, also includes:
- A doubling of the support for first home buyers where they are purchasing a newly built home;
- Increasing the house price caps to the more realistic levels of $550,000 in Auckland, $450,000 in Wellington, Christchurch and other areas facing housing affordability issues and $350,000 in the rest of New Zealand; and
- Expanding eligibility for Welcome Home Loans by aligning the house price caps with the new KiwiSaver HomeStart grant.
- The law has been amended in response to concern from the Māori Party, to enable a KiwiSaver first home withdrawal to apply to the building or purchase of a home on Māori land;
- The law has been clarified so that a KiwiSaver first home withdrawal can be used for the purchase or building of a home in New Zealand only;
- The law has been amended so that from 1 June 2015, the KiwiSaver first home withdrawal can be used for making an initial deposit on a home, provided the funds are protected until settlement. The current law does not enable withdrawals to be used for a deposit, which creates a barrier particularly for new homes purchased off the plans; and
- The KiwiSaver HomeStart grant policy has been revised to allow greater flexibility for new builds in the time to completion because the timeframes announced in August were unrealistic for some apartment and townhouse developments.
What will help poorest children most, right now? – CPAG
MIL OSI – Source: Child Poverty Action Group – What will help poorest children most, right now?
Government needs to hear loudly and strongly that it is the right of all low income children to benefit from tax-funded child payments to alleviate child poverty.
The tragedy is that the poorest children in New Zealand live in families without enough money and that much of this has been by deliberate choice of simply appallingly designed policy for family incomes support.
The time is over for us to continue to fudge the issue by toying with long term reform issues such as universal child benefits, basic incomes and living wage campaigns. All these things have their place in ongoing debates about how the system can be reformed but government is hearing some confused messages about what it should do right now.
The danger is that it will do very little.
Over 230,000 children in low income families do not benefit from the full Working for Families package. Some are in families supported by wage income but their parents don’t get enough hours every week to qualify fpr important payments.
The child payment (called the IWTC) of at least $60 a week per family can disappear when the family falls on hard times or just can’t work enough hours or need a benefit. Other benefits such as the parental tax credit and the minimum family tax credit compound the unfairness
It is based on the deserving and undeserving distinction that should have no place in child assistance policies that are supposed to reduce child poverty and are paid for through our taxes.
Not only is this very bad for the children, the IWTC is a terrible work incentive and doesn’t work in casualised labour markets.
CPAG would encourage other groups to also give a clear message that does not allow the government to sidestep the obvious policy to begin to impact on the worst child poverty. After we fix this problem and begin to treat all low income children the same for tax-funded support , we then need to begin to improve the overall incomes policy for those families who still struggle even though they are in full time work. Child poverty requires a long-term, sustained set of policies and programmes; let’s begin with the most disadvantaged and then move forward.
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Electronic tolling coming to Tauranga in 2015
MIL OSI – Source: New Zealand Transport Agency – Electronic tolling coming to Tauranga in 2015
One of the nine-metre high electronic tolling gantries has been installed on the Tauranga Eastern Link (TEL) ahead of the official opening of the motorway later this year.
The second toll gantry will be built on Tauranga’s Route K (Takitimu Drive) in April, in preparation for when the Transport Agency takes ownership of the road from Tauranga City Council in July 2015.
The NZ Transport Agency’s Waikato / Bay of Plenty Regional Director, Harry Wilson says both of the new toll points are ‘single gantry, multi-lane free flow systems’, the first of their kind in New Zealand.
“Motorists have been using the electronic toll system on the Northern Gateway Toll Road (NGTR), north of Auckland, since 2009, however technology has moved on since the dual-gantry on the NGTR was installed,” Mr Wilson says.
“The gantries in Tauranga are a single gantry which spans all of the lanes and has an exterior cladding.
“All of the technical elements are housed inside the gantry cladding and in the technical shelter on the roadside. This results in a sleeker and more sophisticated design and it also means there is less potential for driver distraction when any maintenance work is carried out.”
Mr Wilson says the main benefit of the free-flow systems being used in Auckland and Tauranga is that there is no need for toll booths, allowing drivers to travel straight through, reducing travel times and providing a more predictable journey.
“Each gantry has 16 cameras, which will capture an image of the vehicle’s front and rear registration plates using the latest optical character recognition technology.
The cameras will read the registration plates and determine the size of the vehicle and whether it is a motorcycle, car, truck, or bus so the correct toll can be assigned”.
“This system is heralded internationally because of its performance, latest generation technology and low initial and operational costs,” Mr Wilson says.
The TEL gantry was shipped into Tauranga in December and installed at the toll point, between the Kaituna River bridge and the future Rangiuru Business Park interchange, near the Paengaroa roundabout.
Mr Wilson says the gantry installation is a significant milestone for the TEL and visible evidence that the project is nearing its final stages.
“The TEL is one of seven Roads of National Significance (RoNS) based around New Zealand’s five largest population centres. The RoNS have been identified by Government as key projects for moving people and freight between and within these centres more safely and efficiently.
“Tolling the TEL between the Domain Road interchange and the Paengaroa roundabout allowed the project to start a decade earlier than originally planned.”
Mr Wilson says light vehicles using the TEL would pay $2 and heavy vehicles $5. The Route K toll tariff will be $1.80 and $4.80 after July 2015.
He says the prices reflect the different benefits of the individual roads for motorists and the underlying costs of constructing the roads.
“Alongside the new-look toll points, the Transport Agency is also upgrading the back-end tolling system, offering customers a range of ways to pay their tolls.
“People can either set up a pre-pay account or pay as they go either online, through the 0800 number or over the counter at selected service stations”.
The new tolling system is expected to be operational in early July, ahead of the TEL being opened and Route K being electronically tolled.
View the 3D tolling animation and see how free flow tolling works.
–]]>New TPPA Investment Leak Confirms NZ Surrender to US – Prof Kelsey
MIL OSI – Source: Professor Jane Kelsey – New TPPA Investment Leak Confirms NZ Surrender to US
[caption id="attachment_1844" align="alignleft" width="200"] Professor Jane Kelsey.[/caption]
THE CONTROVERSIAL INVESTMENT CHAPTER of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) has just been posted by Wikileaks, along with an analysis by Washington-based Public Citizen. Dated 20 January 2015, at the start of the negotiating round in New York, it clearly shows the government has capitulated to US demands.
‘We haven’t seen a text since 2012’, said Auckland University law professor Jane Kelsey. ‘Today’s leaked text confirms all our worst fears.’
‘As anticipated, the deal gives foreign investors from the TPPA countries special rights, and the power to sue the government in private offshore tribunals for massive damages if new laws, or even court decisions, significantly affected their bottom line’.
‘Prime Minister John Key once described the idea of investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) as “far-fetched”.’
‘After he was briefed about the TPPA he changed tack, promising there would be effective safeguards. But the leaked text shows very little has not been agreed. That means the New Zealand government has accepted virtually everything the US has proposed with absolutely no effective safeguards.’
Professor Kelsey recalls how ‘we were assured the flaws that have made these investment agreements so toxic internationally would be sorted and new rules would prevent the investment tribunals going rogue.’
‘The leaked text shows nothing has been done to rein them in. There is no code of conduct, no appeals, no accountability of the private individuals who pass judgement on crucial matters of public policy, and no effective exceptions to protect the right of the government to regulate in the national interest’.
There are high risks for local governments as well.
‘Just last week, as protestors rallied against an extension of the port into the Auckland harbour, an investment tribunal upheld a case against Canada because an environment review panel refused to grant a US firm a permit for a quarry and marine terminal, saying it violated community values and there was inadequate consultation. The investor wants $300 million compensation. The local council is likely to be made to pay the bill.’
The dissenting judge, who was the Canadian government’s appointee on the tribunal, warned this meant the validity of local decisions would end being decided by foreign private arbitrators. The finding would also chill environmental review panels from rejecting proposals in the future.
Kelsey said the virtually concluded text shows the TPPA parties have completely ignored the tide of international sentiment that is rejecting these special rights for foreign investors.
The French and German governments have said they won’t accept ISDS in the parallel deal being negotiated between the US and EU.
Last year the chief justices of Australia and New Zealand expressed concerns about the potential of these investment tribunals to bypass or override decisions of our domestic courts.
Even Business New Zealand told the OECD during a consultation that they don’t see the need for such powers where countries have quality judicial systems.
‘We need to ask why the government is opening us further to these risks, especially when US investors are responsible for more ISDS cases than any other country.’
‘The leak also shows the futility of the few positive changes secured in the investment chapters of the latest Korea agreement. Anything better in the TPPA would be available to Korea’s investors under the most-favoured nation rule. It beggars belief that New Zealand’s negotiators weren’t aware of that reality. Maybe they are just hoping the TPPA well never come into being?’
For Professor Kelsey’s initial analysis of the investment chapter in the Korea FTA and the leaked TPPA text see: http://www.itsourfuture.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/QA-on-NZ-Korea-FTA.pdf
—
]]>WEST PAPUA: Benny Wenda tipped to meet O’Neill, says PNG Loop
MIL OSI Analysis – Pacific Media Centre/Pacific Media Watch
Former prime minister Paias Wingti (left) with Free West Papua PNG coordinator Freddy Mamborasa at Jacksons International Airport at Port Moresby yesterday. Image: PNG Loop
Thursday, March 26, 2015
Item: 9182
Freddy Mou PORT MORESBY (PNG Loop/Pacific Media Watch): Papua New Guinea Prime Minister Peter O’Neill has been tipped to meet with West Papua human rights campaigner Benny Wenda in Port Moresby. However, the reason behind the meeting is not known as details are sketchy. The coordinator of Free West Papua PNG chapter Freddy Mambraso told PNG Loop that O’Neill had flown back to Port Moresby from Madang yesterday and would meet with Wenda. PNG Loop, friends, family members and supporters of Free West Papua were at Jacksons International Airport to get a glimpse of Wenda. It is understood that negotiations between the National Capital District (NCD) Governor Powes Parkop and the government were still continuing for Wenda to spend some time in Port Moresby rather than be deported. Wenda, a West Papuan independence leader and spokesperson for the United Liberation Movement for West Papua, arrived in Papua New Guinea on Tuesday and was “unexpectedly detained’’ by PNG immigration authorities Wenda had flown from the United Kingdom and had planned to stop briefly on Port Moresby before heading to a major meeting in Vanuatu of Melanesian leaders. Wenda was released on Tuesday afternoon and there were reports that he would be deported, which were later denied by PNG officials who said Wenda was travelling without a visa, according to Radio New Zealand International. A Free Papua news released earlier yesterday claimed that PNG Immigration officers were going against the Prime Minister’s orders in detaining Wenda. In a statement, the Free West Papua Campaign said Prime Minister O’Neill and Foreign Minister Rimbink Pato had directed that Wenda should be permitted to enter PNG. The campaign statement said Wenda wanted to thank O’Neill for his recent statement calling for attention to human rights of the West Papua people. Wenda was reported as saying that “the United Liberation Movement for West Papua is seeking to apply for membership of the Melanesian Spearhead Group and I will brief PNG on the progress of the application and on the situation in West Papua generally”. Earlier story
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 New Zealand Licence.
]]>Radio: FiveAA Australia – Evening Report’s Across The Ditch – PM’s Credibility + Cricket Update
Peter Godfrey and Selwyn Manning’s weekly bulletin Across The Ditch. This week: New Zealand PM’s Credibility questioned + Cricket World Cup Update. Recorded live on 26/03/15 – FiveAA.com.au and EveningReport.nz.
[caption id="attachment_1205" align="alignleft" width="300"]
Peter Godfrey and Selwyn Manning.[/caption]ITEM ONE:
THE PRIME MINISTER HAS once again decided to attack the messenger rather than address matters of national interest, after the New Zealand Herald revealed the Government’s GCSB surveillance agency targeted emails of Trade Minister Tim Groser’s opponents while he campaigned for leadership of the World Trade Organisation.
- For reference, here is Evening Report’s editorial: The Prime Minister is Right Snowden Revelations Highlight Issues of Credibility
- Here’s a great article that looks at what the Aussie press thought of the NZ South Africa game.
The PM is Right – Snowden Revelations Highlight Issue of Credibility
Editorial by Selwyn Manning.
THE PRIME MINISTER HAS once again decided to attack the messenger rather than address matters of national interest, after the New Zealand Herald revealed the Government’s GCSB surveillance agency targeted emails of Trade Minister Tim Groser’s opponents while he campaigned for leadership of the World Trade Organisation.
From Seoul, 3News reported the Prime Minister John Key insisted the latest spying allegations were timed by investigative journalist Nicky Hager, and others, to coincide with the signing of a free trade agreement between New Zealand and South Korea.
When questioned on his conspiracy theory, the Prime Minister said: “Of course they were, it’s all part of a particular agenda by Nicky Hager and some others.”
For the record, the latest in the Snowden Revelations investigation reveal how the New Zealand Government’s GCSB surveillance agency was used to spy on opponents of Trade Minister Tim Groser, as he campaigned (unsuccessfully as it turned out) to become leader of the World Trade Organisation.
Let’s be frank: This is a huge issue. It follows revelations that the GCSB targeted diplomats and officials of some of this country’s most important trading partners.
This, after revelations that the GCSB operates a total-surveillance-take of all communications (both civilian and official) of almost all Pacific Islands states. But the Prime Minister insists the leaders of the GCSB’s targeted nations do not care.
From Seoul he said South Korea’s prime minister didn’t raise it so she didn’t care: “They’re just not interested in Snowden,” the Prime Minister said. Rather than protecting New Zealand’s national interest – for example to categorically state that he would investigate the allegations and if it was found the GCSB was spying in the manner revealed in the NSA documents, then he would order the agency to stop immediately – the Prime Minister went on the offensive, basing his shoot-the-messenger attacks on assumptions, allegations that he got completely wrong.
The Prime Minister’s incorrect theories caused the New Zealand Herald to react.
The New Zealand Herald’s David Fisher corrected the Prime Minister’s assumptions in a responsive report on Tuesday stating that Nicky Hager had nothing to do with deciding when the revelations would run: “Hager suggested holding until today (Tuesday) or tomorrow, or even waiting a week or more. I argued against holding it because, almost exclusively, news runs when it is ready to run. Holding off on something – unless a matter of life or death – is as bad as planning to run it on a particular day for a particular objective.”
David Fisher added: “I consulted with the editor, explaining the dilemma. He could see the issue but was comfortable proceeding. News was news. It runs when it is ready.
“Hager’s contribution was done by Thursday. I worked through the weekend – as did Gallagher – to have the story ready for Monday,” David Fisher said.
So it was the New Zealand Herald’s decision to publish revelations of the GCSB-WTO-Groser-surveillance scandal on the day the New Zealand/South Korea free trade agreement was signed.
Is the Prime Minister suggesting the New Zealand Herald is part of some ‘left-wing conspiracy’? Frankly, that argument is not credible. Sadly, there is precedence to such attacks.
When Metro magazine published Eyes Wide Shut, an extensive investigation by journalist Jon Stephenson – on how New Zealand Defence personnel handed over Afghani prisoners to United States interrogators knowing that they would likely be tortured – the Prime Minister did not announce an official investigation into the allegations but rather attacked the credibility of the journalist.
As such, John Key’s attack-the-messenger style affects the ability of the fourth estate to function professionally and meaningfully. This tactic exhausts the fourth estate’s purpose to raise matters of public and national interest. But to date, even after the New Zealand Herald revealed how the truth is at odds to the Prime Minister’s assertions, the Prime Minister did not retract his attack.
John Key said from Seoul: “There’s no question there’s an anti-government, anti-American agenda.” “It’s just a 2012, backward-looking anti-American bunch of plonkers – that’s what these guys are, they’re not interested in the future of New Zealand or making it stronger, they’re just opposed to the government.”
Mr Key said Hager wasn’t a journalist, despite Nicky Hager being the most internationally recognised New Zealand investigative journalist. Key said: “The guy’s a protester. Well, fair enough but just don’t take him too seriously. I don’t.”
The Prime Minister also said:
- – The GCSB operates lawfully
- – The GCSB does not have that many resources
- – And New Zealand has strong oversight.
However, the facts are:
- The GCSB was found in 2013 to have operated illegally
- The GCSB has been provided with United States NSA proprietary surveillance technology and has experienced massive increases to its annual budget
- Security experts define New Zealand as having poor oversight frameworks, oversight that is the least probing of the Five-Eyes alliance members.
But beyond the Prime Minister’s attacks, and the inevitable damage this inflicts on the public reputations of those reporting the revelations, New Zealand’s national interest is arguably being corroded. New Zealand campaigned for its appointment as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council on the merits of its independence.
New Zealand’s elected representatives and officials could apply considerable legitimacy to the handle: New Zealand is an honest broker, that as an independent Pacific Island state, a member and arbiter of prestigious declarations and agreements spanning progressive interest around the globe, that this country would stand up for the underdog, would be a voice for smaller nations, for humanitarianism, for the rule of international law.
These revelations of massive scale-digital communication surveillance, undermine that decades old reputation.
Now that it is known that the Government Communications Security Bureau has committed to under-the-radar surveillance of friendly nations, in our name, the country’s international reputation is in tatters.
We have been relegated to a reputation akin to a repugnant pint-sized bully, resourced and protected by a superpower hulk, whose victims, and others, will understandably regard silently as one to distrust and where possible avoid. For the Prime Minister to insist they do not care is, in my opinion, beyond naïve. On this issue, John Key’s position is beyond credible.
- Ref.
NewsRoom Digest: Top NZ News Items for March 25, 2015
This edition of NewsRoom_Digest contains eight media release snippets and four links of the day from Wednesday 25 March.
Top stories in this news cycle currently include the Black Caps’ win against South Africa in the cricket World Cup semi-final last night and this afternoon’s final round of ticket sales to the final on Sunday, two leading opera singers being among the 150 people killed in a German airliner crash in the French Alps and a 16 percent drop in Fonterra’s net profit in its half-year results and its decision to hold its forecast milk payout and reduce dividends to put dairy farmers under further financial pressure.
SNIPPETS OF THE DAY
NZ First: Political Power For Northland: New Zealand First stood in this by-election to end the neglect of Northland brought about by decades of abandonment by the National Party, says Leader and candidate for the Northland by-election Rt Hon Winston Peters. “Northlanders know they have been forgotten but now recognise they can bring about change by sending the government a message. “New Zealand First won’t change the government but we will change the way they think about Northland.
NZ First: Remove Name Suppression: New Zealand First will introduce a Bill in Parliament to remove name suppression from paedophiles where the victim/victims have not requested it, or are asking for it to be removed, Leader and candidate for the Northland by-election Rt Hon Winston Peters announced in Paihia today. “There have been so many cases of sexual violence in New Zealand where the offender hides behind a cloak of secrecy imposed on the basis that secrecy protects the victim.
Smaller-Than-Expected Trade Surplus: New Zealand recorded a smaller-than-expected trade surplus in February, led by declining dairy exports, while the annual deficit widened to the largest in more than five years. Statistics New Zealand said the trade surplus was $50 million in February, lower than the $392 million expected in a Reuters poll of economists. January’s surplus was revised down to $33 million, from $56 million. The annual trade deficit was $2.18 billion, the biggest gap since August 2009, and larger than the $1.82 billion deficit forecast in the Reuters poll.
Kiwi Dollar Rises Above Pound: The New Zealand dollar rose to a two-month high against the pound after a report showed Britain had no inflation last month, stoking speculation the Bank of England won’t raise interest rates any time soon. The kiwi hit 51.54 British pence and was trading at 51.50 pence at 8am in Wellington, from 51.10 pence at 5pm yesterday. The local currency advanced to 76.46 US cents from 76.28 cents yesterday. The pound weakened after data showed British annual inflation hit zero for the first time on record in February, from a 0.3 percent pace in January, raising speculation it could dip below zero next month.
Fonterra Discloses Results: Fonterra Cooperative Group, the world’s biggest dairy exporter, affirmed its milk payout forecast and lowered guidance for dividends, while posting a 16 percent drop in first-half profit it says reflected “tough conditions in dairy.” The forecast payout for the current season was affirmed at $4.70 per kilogram of milk solids, down from a record $8.40/kgMS last season, while guidance for dividends was trimmed to a range of 20 cents to 30 cents, from a previous 25 cents to 35 cents. Net profit fell 16 percent to $183 million in the first half, as sales declined 14 percent to $9.7 billion.
Step Closer To Stopping Cyber Bullying: A Bill to curb the growing incidence of cyberbullying and its devastating effects passed its second reading in Parliament last night. The Harmful Digital Communications Bill introduces a range of measures to address damaging online communications and ensure perpetrators are held to account for their actions. Justice Minister Amy Adams says the Bill will prevent and reduce the harm caused by cyberbullying and harassment.
Risk Of Cyber Attacks Underestimated: New Zealand companies are failing to realise the need to insure against cyber attacks, despite a growing number of incidents, according to a top commercial insurance expert. Kiwi SMEs have been slow to include cyber insurance in their business protection plans, but are also more likely to be at risk due to a lack of IT support and the increasing frequency of attacks, says Apex Insurance Special Risks Team Account Director, Jonathon Gillham. “Only around one in every 300 (0.3%) businesses in New Zealand are estimated to have cyber insurance,” says Gillham. “The majority of those that do have protection are large companies or companies that operate in the software industry who are very aware of the dangers.”
NZ Sends Search and Rescue Team: New Zealand is to send 14 urban search and rescue personnel to Vanuatu to help with rebuilding efforts in the wake of Cyclone Pam. Paul Baxter, Chief Executive & National Commander of the New Zealand Fire Service, which leads the country’s USAR capability, said the team would focus its efforts on the island of Epi, which lies to the north of the capital Port Vila. They would operate from HMNZS Canterbury, which is in Vanuatu with nearly 12 tonnes of medical supplies and equipment for producing drinking water.
LINKS OF THE DAY
FIRST FLIGHT TO SOUTH AMERICA: Air New Zealand is celebrating fares going on sale today for its non-stop service between Auckland and the Argentinean capital of Buenos Aires with a special limited time introductory price of just $899 one-way. Subject to government and regulatory approval, the new Auckland – Buenos Aires service which kicks off on 1 December 2015 will be Air New Zealand’s first ever scheduled service to South America, opening up a whole new world of opportunities for Kiwis wanting to explore the vibrant city of Buenos Aires and beyond to the rest of Argentina and South America. See www.airnewzealand.co.nz for more details.
QUEENSTOWN TOPS TRAVELLER’S CHOICE AWARDS: Queenstown has been named the number one destination in both New Zealand and the South Pacific in TripAdvisor’s 2015 Travellers’ Choice Awards. As well as taking out the top spot in the South Pacific and New Zealand, Queenstown has also been rated as one of the world’s top 25 destinations. This is the third consecutive year Queenstown has won New Zealand’s top destination but it is the first time the four season lake and alpine resort has taken the title of best South Pacific region. For the complete list of 2015 Travellers’ Choice Destinations winners, go to: http://www.tripadvisor.com/TravelersChoice-Destinations.
MOBILE WALLET LAUNCH: ANZ will release a mobile wallet later this year within ANZ goMoney, New Zealand’s most popular mobile banking app. The wallet will be yet another enhancement to ANZ goMoney and will enable customers to make contactless payments with just one tap of their Android smart phones. The wallet will be available to around 120,000 customers* at launch. For additional information visit:
www.anz.co.nz/gomoneywallet
CHECK TYRES FOR SAFETY: With only one week to go before Easter weekend, the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority (EECA) is encouraging motorists to check their tyres now, so they have time to replace them if needed before they hop in their cars for the long weekend. EECA General Manager Transport Liz Yeaman says before the long weekend it’s a good idea to check tyre tread to make sure the journey is as safe as possible. Motorists can find the ENERGYWISE approved tyres available for their car at
http://www.energywise.govt.nz/tools/fuel-efficient-tyres
And that’s our sampling of the day that was on Wednesday 25th March 2015.
Brought to EveningReport by Newsroom Digest.
–]]>
NAURU: Asylum-seeker report confirms rape and sexual abuse of children
MIL OSI Analysis – Pacific Media Centre/Pacific Media Watch
Protesting refugees at the asylum seeker processing centre on Nauru. Image: RNZIWednesday, March 25, 2015
Item: 9179
NAURU (Radio New Zealand International/Pacific Media Watch): An independent report has confirmed cases of mistreatment and abuse of asylum seekers at an Australian-run detention centre in Nauru, reports Radio New Zealand International. The Moss Review, commissioned by the Australian government, found allegations made against 10 Save The Children workers at the camps, most of whom were sacked last year, were false. But it did find cases of rape, sexual abuse of children and the sale of drugs for sexual favours with some staff at the Nauru facilities to be credible. The Nauru government said it was disappointed in the service providers at the Australian-run asylum seeker detention camps in the wake of the Moss Review. The camps, which are managed by multinational company Transfield, are staffed by foreigners and Nauruan locals. Radio New Zealand International reported the Nauru government said it was deeply concerned about the findings and said it would make resources available to ensure that all recommendations were implemented. The government said the service providers were meant to ensure people in the camps were treated with care and dignity, and it was clear there must be changes in the way these operations were managed. It said it strongly condemned sexual assault, violence and any form of intimidation, particularly against those who are vulnerable. On several occasions in recent months the Nauru government had accused refugee groups of lying and misinformation when they had raised concerns about the welfare of the camp inmates.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 New Zealand Licence. ]]>
WEST PAPUA: Detained campaigner Benny Wenda awaits PNG verdict
MIL OSI Analysis – Pacific Media Centre/Pacific Media Watch
West Papuan campaigner Benny Wenda with a booklet about exploitation at the Freeport mine. Image: PNGLoop
Wednesday, March 25, 2015
Item: 9181
Freddy Mou PORT MORESBY (PNG Loop/Pacific Media Watch): A final clearance from Prime Minister Peter O’Neill will determine if exiled West Papuan leader Benny Wenda gets deported today. The coordinator of Free West Papua PNG Chapter Freddy Mambraso told PNG Loop that Wenda was still awaiting clearance from the PM who was in Madang. He said attempts had been made to the head of Immigration but he had been told to wait for the PM’s advice. Wenda was reportedly in Immigration custody and awaiting clearance. He has been denied access into the country and was reportedly locked up by Immigration officers at the Jackson’s International Airport in Port Moresby yesterday afternoon. It was revealed that Wenda was in the country by invitation from National Capital District (NCDC) Governor Powes Parkop. Wenda, a roving ambassador of the West Papuan people, had flown from the United Kingdom arriving yesterday and had planned to stop briefly in Papua New Guinea before heading to a major meeting in Vanuatu of Melanesian leaders. Wenda was released yesterday afternoon and will be deported today if the PM gives the order for deportation. However, Prime Minister Peter O’Neill said he had no idea about the situation as he was attending to some events at Ramu in the Madang Province. Benny Wenda ‘held’ in PNG – RNZI report
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 New Zealand Licence. ]]>
United Nations trade report calls on governments to improve environment for e-commerce
MIL OSI – Source: United Nations – UN trade report calls on governments to improve environment for e-commerce The scope for developing countries to participate in and benefit from e-commerce is expanding, according to a new United Nations report released today, with improved connectivity, new e-commerce applications, platforms and payment solutions, and the emergence of local e-commerce companies that are tailoring their services to local demands. The 2015 edition of the Information Economy Report (IER), published by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), analyses trends and international policy issues related to information and communications technology and its links with trade and development. “As the digital economy expands and more business activities are affected, it becomes more important for governments to consider policies that can help to harness e-commerce for sustainable development,” said UNCTAD Secretary-General Mukhisa Kituyi, specifying that governments need to improve areas including information and communications technology infrastructure, the legal and regulatory environment, and develop skills in their populations. The report includes a B2C (Business-to-Consumer) E-commerce Index, which draws on data to assess e-commerce readiness and help States to formulate their national e-commerce strategies. Through the Index, governments can identify their relative strengths and weaknesses. In Africa, for example, internet penetration levels need to rise to promote e-commerce readiness. Making information and communications technology work for development requires more than expanding the infrastructure, the report says. In order to foster productive and inclusive use of information and communications technology, governments need to create legal, institutional and policy frameworks and generate the necessary skills in government, business and civil society and the Index measures progress in those areas. Among developing countries, States at the top end of the Index are in East Asia, including the Republic of Korea and Singapore, with larger countries such as Brazil, China and Russia performing better than predicted, suggesting that large markets facilitate e-commerce. Business-to-consumer e-commerce, valued at $1.2 trillion, is currently much smaller than business-to-business (B2B), which is worth $15 trillion, but is growing at a faster rate, especially in Asia and Africa, and is expected to double in size to $2.4 trillion by 2018. To enable that, postal networks will be vital and the report measures data on home postal delivery as an indicator of countries’ readiness to engage in B2C e-commerce. In Latin America and the Caribbean and in Asia and Oceania, the extension of postal home delivery was found to be particularly important. “Posts are seeing the mail makeup changing, with more merchandises making their way through their networks,” said Bishar A. Hussein, the Director General of the Universal Postal Union (UPU). “They must prepare for this growth by adapting their products and services, processes and infrastructure.” The UNCTAD report also notes that growing concerns over cybercrime affect the willingness of both buyers and sellers to make transactions online, with research showing that the enactment of laws to facilitate security and trust in online transactions varies considerably globally, with significant gaps in many developing countries. Although the United States is by far the most targeted country, accounting for almost half of known cases of cybercrime, information security is a rising concern for governments, enterprises and consumers around the world, especially given that $3.5 billion was lost in supplier revenue due to online fraud in 2012. UNCTAD’s report calls for interoperability of legal measures between States, with 117 countries having enacted cybercrime legislation. Ensuring international compatibility of e-transaction laws remains a challenge and the report says the legal recognition of e-signatures, electronic contracts and evidence at a national level should ideally be extended to those originating in other jurisdictions. –]]>
OECD Urges Indonesia to accelerate reforms and invest in human capital to ensure sustainable and inclusive growth
MIL OSI – Source: OECD – Indonesia should accelerate reforms and invest in human capital to ensure sustainable and inclusive growth 25/03/2015-The Indonesian economy has enjoyed strong and stable growth over the past decade and a half, leading to impressive reductions in poverty and major improvements in living standards. But challenges remain to continue to converge towards higher-income countries, according to the latest OECD Economic Survey of Indonesia. The Survey, presented in Jakarta by OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría and Indonesian Minister of Finance Bambang Brodjonegoro, notes that economic growth has slowed in recent years and suggests that accelerating the pace of reform is needed to ensure sustainable and inclusive growth that benefits all Indonesians. Despite a slowdown in 2014 and a challenging international environment, Indonesian GDP growth is projected to reach 5.3% in 2015 and 5.9% in 2016. “Indonesia has been through a remarkable transformation, with tens of millions of people lifted out of poverty,” Mr Gurría said. “Today Indonesia is out-performing most of its regional neighbours, and most other emerging market economies, but by accelerating reforms it can do even better, grow even faster, and ensure that all Indonesians share the benefits of growth. Improving the education system and the country’s infrastructure will be critical to future success.” Mr Gurría also presented a new OECD Education Policy Review of Indonesia, with Minister of Culture and Elementary and Secondary Education Anies Baswedan, during the same news conference. The Policy Review points out that Indonesia faces a unique window of opportunity: with 43% of its 250 million-strong population under the age of 25, the country is already endowed with the human resources necessary to propel growth, provided its workforce is equipped with the right skills. To reap the demographic dividend, the Indonesian government must raise the quality of education, through improvements in teacher training, professional development and increased accountability. It must extend participation in the education system, to ensure that all students have an equal chance to progress to higher levels of learning. And it must strive for greater efficiency within the education sector. The Economic Survey points out that the central government’s strong fiscal position – marked by low deficits and low public debt – offers the opportunity to raise greater revenues to fund higher spending targeted at improving education, boosting infrastructure and expanding the social security system. Better targeting of existing social security programmes would ensure that measures to alleviate poverty, including cash transfers, health care spending and food subsidies, benefit those most in need. Reducing high levels of labour market informality, through the easing of labour market rigidities, would improve incentives for workers to join the social security system, the Survey said. Indonesia should also do more to make the most of its natural resources, notably by increasing agricultural productivity, through technical assistance and training, while improving farmers’ access to credit. It should also seek to diversify energy sources away from fossil fuels, notably by promoting investment in its abundant geothermal resources. An Overview with the main conclusions is available at http://oecd.org/indonesia/economic-survey-indonesia.htm. You are invited to include this Internet link in reports on the Survey. An embeddable version of the Economic Survey is also available, together with information about downloadable and print versions. ***NOTE TO EDITORS*** The 4th Economic Survey of Indonesia and the 1st Education Policy Review are key elements of Indonesia’s ongoing and expanding partnership with the OECD. Mr Gurría’s visit marked the inauguration of of the OECD’s new Southeast Asia Office, in Jakarta. The Office will serve as a platform for boosting OECD work in the region and enabling the Organisation to collaborate more closely with counterparts in Indonesia and across Southeast Asia. The 34 member OECD promotes policies that improve the economic and social well-being of people worldwide. The Organisation provides a forum in which governments can work together to share experiences and seek solutions to common problems. The OECD’s current members are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. – ]]>
FONTERRA ANNOUNCES 2015 INTERIM RESULTS
MIL OSI –
Fonterra announces 2015 Interim Results
Click here to review the Interim Results presentation and Interim Report.
Results Highlights
· Forecast Cash Payout for the 2014/15 Season of $4.90 – $5.00
– Forecast Farmgate Milk Price $4.70 per kgMS
– Estimated full year dividend of 20-30 cents per share
· Revenue $9.7 billion, down 14 per cent
· Reported EBIT $483 million, up 16 per cent
· Normalised EBIT $376 million, down 7 per cent
· Net profit after tax (NPAT) $183 million, down 16 per cent
· Interim dividend of 10 cents per share
· Ingredients normalised EBIT $299 million, up 2 per cent
· Consumer and foodservice normalised EBIT $116 million, up 23 per cent
· International Farming normalised EBIT ($27) million
Forecast Cash Payout
Fonterra Co-operative Group today announced its half-year results.
Chairman John Wilson said that given the results achieved in the first half of the year and the continued volatility in international prices, the Co-operative was holding its forecast Farmgate Milk Price at $4.70 per kgMS.
“However, our forecast dividend has been lowered to 20-30 cents per share, resulting in a forecast Cash Payout of $4.90 – $5.00. The Board has declared a 10 cent interim dividend.
“These half-year results are below our farmers’ expectations, in a period when the Farmgate Milk Price is low and we are reducing the forecast dividend range.
“Our half-year results are a snapshot of tough conditions in dairy with variable production, demand and pricing. There was also the challenge of generating profit from inventory made in the previous financial year when the cost of milk was higher, but sold in the first quarter of the financial year when global dairy prices were falling.
“In New Zealand, milk production got off to an excellent start. A very dry summer in most regions curtailed production in the last three weeks of January, with the Co-operative reducing its milk volume forecast to slightly below last season’s production.
“Our current milk supply forecast for the 2014/15 season has increased to 1,551 million kgMS, two per cent below the 2013/14 season.
“Oversupply from dairy producing regions around the world in the early months of the financial year saw the trade-weighted GlobalDairyTrade price index hit a five-year low in December. Supply outweighed demand and buyers undervalued milk, which was reflected in prices that declined to unsustainable levels. Lower commodity prices placed downward pressure on our Farmgate Milk Price in the first half. This was partially offset by currency, with a benefit of approximately 30 cents per kgMS to the forecast Farmgate Milk Price, as at 31 January.
“Volatility continues to influence international dairy commodity prices and given this, we recommend caution with regards to on-farm budgets,” said Mr Wilson.
Net profit after tax is down 16 per cent to $183 million. Normalised EBIT is also down 7 per cent to $376 million, compared with the same period last year.
Business Performance
The first half has been subdued for the Co-operative, due to high volatility and challenging global market conditions, resulting in a 14 per cent decrease in revenue, CEO Theo Spierings said.
“In the first quarter, opportunities to improve ingredients, consumer and foodservice gross margins were restricted until carryover inventory from the previous financial year was cleared.
“There is often a lag between when product is produced and when it is sold. During the first quarter, the value of our ingredients inventory was relatively high as it was mostly produced when Whole Milk Powder (WMP) prices were higher, ranging between USD2,700 to USD4,700 per MT.
“However, these higher inventory costs were not recovered due to rapidly falling Whole Milk Powder (WMP) prices in the first quarter of this financial year, which dropped to a low of around USD2,400 per MT.
“This gap between the value of inventory and selling prices created a margin squeeze in the first quarter. This contrasts with the first quarter last year when the value of inventory was based on a lower milk cost, and was sold at a higher price.
“In the second quarter this year earnings for ingredients improved, benefiting from the lower cost of milk.
“Our consumer and foodservice business in Asia and China source all of their milk from New Zealand and benefited from the lower value of milk, particularly in the second quarter.
“Our Australian and Chilean consumer and foodservice businesses source their milk in market. Their earnings were significantly impacted by higher milk prices within each of these milk pools which squeezed margins. In Australia, Chile and Brazil, the prices paid for milk are influenced by in-market dynamics rather than global prices, so our businesses in these markets have faced higher input costs.
“Meanwhile our Sri Lanka business has turned around and improved earnings after rebuilding the market share lost, following the temporary suspension of our operations last year.
“Despite some challenges, our consumer and foodservice business overall achieved volume growth and improved pricing, together delivering a $91 million increase in our gross margin. Normalised EBIT for consumer and foodservice for the first half was $116 million, an increase of 23 per cent on the prior comparable period,” said Mr Spierings.
Outlook
“Our first half year results combined with the current market conditions mean that our expectations for the full year have resulted in an updated forecast dividend range of 20 to 30 cents per share (based on our policy of paying 65 to 75 per cent of net profit after tax),” said Mr Spierings. “We are maintaining our current forecast Farmgate Milk Price.
“We are strongly committed to the V3 Strategy we formulated three years ago, which has been a huge change for the Co-op. The strategy is creating sustainable returns through the integration of our ingredients multi-hubs and targeted consumer and foodservice positions in our key markets. We remain uniquely placed in the world with our global reach, asset footprint, and integrated grass-to-glass supply chain.
“But the change so far has not been easy. Capital structure change was a necessity. However, the precautionary recall last year, and recent contamination threat have been unwelcome distractions. These events remind us that the world is constantly changing and we have to be agile and responsive so we can remain ahead. We have the building blocks in place to deliver on our vision and strategy for the long term.
“We have a single-minded focus on delivering results: increasing sales volumes, reducing complexity, and taking costs out to maximise returns. To accelerate delivery on strategy, my team and I are leading a comprehensive business transformation programme. It will firmly embed the best features of entrepreneurial thinking, such as effectiveness, efficiency and agility.
“This will require some tough decisions. We are committed to improving performance. We have made good progress so far but we need to increase the pace of change,” said Mr Spierings.
The record date for the interim dividend is 10 April, and the payment date is 20 April.
The dividend reinvestment plan (DRP), under which eligible shareholders and unit holders can elect to reinvest all or part of their cash dividends in additional shares or units, will be made available in respect of the 2015 interim dividend. The Board has determined that shares and units will be issued at a 2.5% discount on the average closing price for the period 8-14 April 2015.
Note: currency is New Zealand dollars unless otherwise stated.
About Fonterra
Fonterra is a preferred supplier of dairy ingredients to many of the world’s leading food companies. Fonterra is also a market leader with our own consumer dairy brands in Australia/New Zealand, Asia/Africa, Middle East and Latin America.
The farmer-owned New Zealand co-operative is the largest processor of milk in the world, producing more than two million tonnes of dairy ingredients, value added dairy ingredients, specialty ingredients and consumer products every year. Drawing on generations of dairy expertise, Fonterra is one of the largest investors in dairy based research and innovation in the world. Our more than 18,000 staff ensure we live up to exacting quality standards and deliver every day on our customer promise in more than 100 markets around the world.
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APPENDIX ONE
Fonterra has changed the way it structures its financial reporting. It is now focused on the Ingredients, Consumer and Foodservice, and International Farming businesses, to align with our global strategy.
Half-year financial highlights by business divisions
Ingredients Milk collection across New Zealand for the season to 31 January 2015 was 1,150 million kgMS, three per cent up on the same period last season. Milk collection in Australia, which is our second largest milk pool, was 82 million kgMS, up six per cent. Ingredients sales volumes were flat as a result of lower sales to China which was offset by higher sales in other regions, but revenue was 23 per cent down reflecting the 45 per cent lower dairy commodity prices during the first half compared to the same period last year. Normalised EBIT for the first half was $299 million, up two per cent relative to the comparable period. The ingredients segment includes group overheads. Operating costs were $43 million higher mainly due to higher costs to support our global strategy and ensure efficient allocation of resources, and higher storage and distribution costs in the United States and New Zealand.
Consumer and Foodservice Volume across our consumer and foodservice businesses was up 27 per cent to 840,000MT in the first half compared to the same period last year. On a like-for-like basis, excluding volumes for Brazil and Venezuela, which were not consolidated last year, volume was up three per cent. Revenue was up 22 per cent to $3.3 billion and five per cent on a like-for-like basis, reflecting our ability to increase price points in some key markets. Normalised EBIT for the consumer and foodservice business in the first half was $116 million, up 23 per cent compared to the same period last year. This was mainly due to improved pricing and strong volume growth in China, the recovery in Sri Lanka and a strong performance from our foodservice business in Asia. This was partially offset by higher input costs due to the higher cost of milk in Australia and in Chile in the first half compared to the same period last year. Operating expenses were $4 million higher mainly because of higher investment in our China consumer business.
International Farming We now have two farming hubs with a total of nine productive farms. A single farm has capacity for around 3,200-3,500 milking cows and a double farm has around 6,500 milking cows. In total we have 24,000 milking cows and 25,000 heifers and calves across all our farms. Milk production volumes increased significantly to 67,000 MT for the first half as a result of the new farms that have come on stream since the first half last year, equating to over five million kgMS of milk produced for the six months. Normalised EBIT in the first half was down $29 million on the same period last year due to the higher livestock revaluation adjustment in the first half of last year not being repeated this year. Accounting standards require Fonterra to hold livestock on our balance sheet at fair value. The relatively thinly traded livestock market on China and the volatile local Chinese milk price contribute to fluctuations in Chinese livestock valuations. In addition we had a lower milk price in China which reflected the impact of higher local milk production.
APPENDIX TWO
Non-GAAP measures Fonterra uses several non-GAAP measures when discussing financial performance. For further details and definitions of non-GAAP measures used by Fonterra, refer to the Glossary in Fonterra’s 2014 Annual Review. These are non-GAAP measures and are not prepared in accordance with NZ IFRS.
Management believes that these measures provide useful information as they provide valuable insight on the underlying performance of the business. They may be used internally to evaluate the underlying performance of business units and to analyse trends. These measures are not uniformly defined or utilised by all companies. Accordingly, these measures may not be comparable with similarly titled measures used by other companies. Non-GAAP financial measures should not be viewed in isolation nor considered as a substitute for measures reported in accordance with NZ IFRS.
· Fonterra calculates normalised EBIT by adding back net finance costs, taxation expense and normalisation adjustments to profit for the period. · Normalisation adjustments are transactions that are unusual by nature or size such that they materially reduce the ability of users of the financial results to understand the underlying performance of the Group or operating segment to which they relate. · Unusual transactions by nature are the result of a specific event or set of circumstances that are outside the control of the business, or relate to the major acquisitions or disposals of an asset/group of assets or business. · Unusual transactions by size are those that are unusually large in a particular accounting period. · Normalisation adjustments are determined on a consistent basis each year.
Reconciliation from the NZ IFRS measure of profit after tax to Fonterra’s normalised EBIT |
|
$ million |
Six month ended 31 January 2015 |
Six month ended 31 January 2014 |
|
Total EBIT |
483 |
416 |
|
Net gain on Latin American strategic realignment |
(129) |
– |
|
Time value of options |
22 |
(13) |
|
Total normalisation adjustments |
(107) |
(13) |
|
Total normalised EBIT |
376 |
403 |
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Dairy drives fall in exports – Statistics NZ
MIL OSI – Source: Statistics New Zealand – Dairy drives fall in exports Total goods exports fell $608 million (13 percent) to $3.9 billion in February 2015 compared with February 2014, Statistics New Zealand said today. Milk powder, butter, and cheese exports led the fall, down 41 percent ($647 million) from February 2014, due to lower prices and a 10 percent fall in quantities exported. Over three-quarters of the drop in value was due to falling exports to China. “Annual dairy export values are still coming down from the highest annual level, which was in mid-2014, but quantities exported have remained fairly stable,” international statistics manager Jason Attewell said. “Annual values are now 16 percent lower than for the year ended August 2014 and are at similar levels to late 2013.” Meat values rose $78 million (12 percent) compared with February 2014. Frozen beef to the United States continues to push meat export values to new highs. Imports rose $139 million (3.7 percent), to $3.9 billion. Consumption goods (such as clothing) led the rise, up 14 percent. Machinery and plant equipment in the capital goods category rose 13 percent, led by mobile phones (personal and business use). In February 2015, there was a small trade surplus of $50 million, down from the surplus of $797 million in February 2014. The trade balance for the year ended February 2015 was a deficit of $2.2 billion. This deficit represents a $4.0 billion turnaround since the most-recent peak in the August 2014 year. –]]>
No trace of missing Dutch tourist – Police
MIL OSI –
Source: New Zealand Police – Press Release/Statement:
Headline: Day three – no trace of missing Dutch tourist
Tasman
Search and rescue teams, including specialist search dogs from Canterbury have again failed to find any trace of missing Dutch tourist Ken Boogers.
Mr Boogers was last seen on the Pillar Point track which is in the area between Wharariki and Puponga in Golden Bay on Saturday. There have been no further confirmed sightings of him since that time.
The weather has remained fine today in the search area. Searchers are now pulling out for the night and the search will resume at first light on Thursday.
Police would like to speak to anyone who has seen Mr Boogers since Saturday. Anyone with information should call Nelson Police Ph 5463840 or Takaka Police Ph 5259211.
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]]>Investigations ongoing into serious assault at Christchurch Men’s Prison – Police
MIL OSI –
Source: New Zealand Police – Press Release/Statement:
Headline: Investigations ongoing into serious assault at Christchurch Men’s Prison
Canterbury
Canterbury Police are investigating a serious assault reported to have occurred at Christchurch Men’s Prison at approximately 9.30am this morning (25 March 2015).
The male victim, an inmate at the Prison, has been taken to Christchurch Hospital with serious injuries.
Canterbury Police investigations into the incident are ongoing.
It is too early in the investigation to make any further comment.
ENDS
Issued by: Lisa-Marie Brooks, District Communications Manager, Canterbury Police District. Mobile: 021 942 404
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]]>Carving out a wine market in China
MIL OSI – Source: Asia New Zealand Foundation – Carving out a wine market in China By Matt Calman Charlotte Read has been involved in the wine industry for most of her life. Her father was one of Hawke’s Bay’s first grape growers in the 1970s, during the infancy of the New Zealand wine industry. Now she is trying to convert Chinese palates to the award-wining wines of New Zealand winery Villa Maria. Read became Villa Maria’s first dedicated Chinese-based Asia market manager in 2010. She has spent significant time in both Shanghai and Beijing managing two China-based staff. Previously she was based in London as Villa Maria’s UK/European market manager. China is a fledgling market in terms of wine. Its supermarkets have small sections devoted to wine compared to the large volumes displayed in New Zealand supermarkets. But the past two years have seen a shift in Chinese wine buying habits. Wine was predominantly bought for gifting and banqueting but a change of government in 2012 led to a crackdown on lavish spending. “Now a more consumer-oriented wine culture is emerging which is essential for long-term sustainable growth,” Read says. Of a population of nearly 1.4 billion people an estimated 35 million drink imported wine, up from just 19 million two years ago. Imported wine makes up just 12 percent of the wine consumed in China. “Back in New Zealand there’s pressure to get a big presence in China, fast. But we need to have realistic expectations around what the size of the prize is and the timeframe to achieve it in,” Read says. “The wine-drinking public is still a very small group, but it’s growing rapidly and it’s that potential we are here for.” The westernisation of the restaurant experience, and the concept of social wine drinking going hand-in-hand with that sort of occasion, is slowly transforming China from a banquet-only culture. Red wines from the Bordeaux region of France have proved popular. They were an early pioneer in the market and have been well marketed to the point those brands are synonymous with wine in China. In fact, 90 percent of wine drunk and much of local production in China is red wine. “It’s what is preferred because it’s what was known first. In some sectors some people don’t even know that white wine exists. That is the challenge for New Zealand in that our mainstay is white wine.” However, members of the educated, emerging middle class, and women in particular, are very receptive to white wine, Read says. Villa Maria has maintained a presence in five-star hotels, restaurants, retail chains and major tier-one cities through its 15-year relationship with wine importer Summergate Fine Wines. In recent years social media and the internet has become a vital marketing tool. The Villa Maria team in China, with help from an agency, are very active on social media platforms Weibo and Wei Xin (WeChat). Villa Maria posts content about its brand, and about New Zealand, in both English and Chinese to its followers (Villa Maria has more than 20,000 followers on Weibo alone). E-commerce (buying and selling products online) is also a rapidly growing channel for wine sales, with China surpassing the United States as the largest E-commerce market in the world in 2012. China’s imported wine market has two main realms – the cheaper end dominated by large-volume wine-producing countries such as Spain, Chile and Australia, and the premium end of the market. “There are two speeds of the market here. There’s the very cheap end where it’s very price sensitive but New Zealand doesn’t want to play there,” Read says. Awards and accolades are important for brand perception with Chinese consumers. Villa Maria has just been named fourth most admired wine brand in the world by Drinks International Magazine, the only New Zealand winery named in the top 10. “If you build a strong brand you can command the premium. Chinese people will pay when they understand the quality.” Read says New Zealand’s annual wine exports to China totalled $27.7 million (NZD) to the end of January, which meant the market was rebounding to 2012 levels. In 2003, New Zealand Winegrowers figures estimated the annual exports to China totalled just $209,000 (NZD). Read is responsible for a huge territory – from Dubai to Japan and everywhere in between – but being a leader in the China wine market is key to the Villa Maria brand. “It’s symbolic of how important China is to our business … and how we are dedicated to developing this area. China is a market requiring patience and perseverance.” – -]]>
