A West Papuan leader has accused the Indonesian government of lying over its operations and “masking” the military role of some civilian aircraft.
Disputing an Indonesian government statement about reported that TPNPB fired upon an aircraft in Boven Digoel, killing both the pilot and copilot, United Liberation Movement for West Papua (ULMWP) interim president Benny Wenda said the aircraft was “not civilian”.
Wenda added that the Indonesian government was “tricking the world” about its military operations in West Papua.
“The Cessna plane the TPNPB [West Papua National Liberation Army] fired upon in Boven Digoel was not a civilian plane, as the police spokesman misleadingly stated, but part of a security operation,” Wenda said in a statement.
“Indonesia is again disguising their military activity as [civilian] activity. They are also willfully breaching the no-fly zones established by the TPNPB.”
The occupied conflict areas in which the Indonesian military TNI were “not permitted to fly” had been “clearly marked out by the TPNPB”.
“This is the same pattern Indonesia used in 1977, when Indonesia used a disguised civilian plane to bomb villages across the highlands and massacre thousands, including many members of my own family,” Wenda said.
Clear strategy He added there was a clear strategy behind this — “Indonesia wants to avoid the attention that would be drawn by a large scale military buildup, so they mask their introduction of weapons and other military equipment and personnel”.
Wenda said they were effectively “using their own people as human shields”.
Indonesian soldiers and equipment next to a civilian aircraft. Image: ULMWP
Indonesian troops boarding a civilian aircraft in the West Papua Highlands. Image: ULMWP video screenshot APR
The TPNPB attacks took place on February 11, with the plane being downed and the pilot and co-pilot being killed.
A second attack took place in Mimika, near the Grasberg gold and copper mine, which has been the cause of so much West Papuan deaths over the past 40 years.
“Indonesia then immediately began operating their propaganda machine, claiming that the planes were simply engaged in civilian and medical supply distribution,” Wenda said.
“The truth is that these aircraft were involved in intelligence and security operations.
Media blackout “Indonesia is only able to spread these lies and mislead the international community because of their six-decades long media blackout in West Papua.
“No journalists or NGOs are allowed to operate in our land. West Papua is a closed society, just like North Korea. I thank God we have civilian journalists to document their lies.”
By breaching these rules the military were inviting further attacks, Wenda said.
“We must always remember that the Indonesian military uses any armed action by West Papuans for their own gain, as a pretext for more militarisation, more displacement, and more deforestation and ecocide.”
Wenda said their aim was always to escalate the situation as a way of ethnically cleansing Papuans, forcing them to become refugees in their own land, and strengthening their colonial hold over West Papua.
“It isn’t a coincidence that in the week since this incident we have seen an escalation in Yahukimo, an Indonesia-occupied community health centre, and transformed it into a military post, displacing and traumatising local residents.”
Using hospitals and other health infrastructure for military means was a clear breach of international humanitarian law, Wenda said.
Normal for military In West Papua such behaviour was normal for the military.
“In the same week in Puncak regency, Indonesian military personnel seized a school, preventing students from learning and putting ordinary people at risk of harm. Soldiers are posted in classrooms with guns.”
Wenda called on the Indonesian government to withdraw their troops from occupied West Papua, allow civilians to return home, cease using civilian vehicles as a cover for military action, and immediately facilitate a UN Human Rights visit to West Papua — as has been demanded by more than 110 UN Member states.
“Ultimately, Indonesia must come to the table to discuss a referendum,” Wenda said. “This is the only path to a peaceful solution in West Papua.”
An Indonesian Embassy spokesperson blamed the “armed criminal group”, an expression it uses to describe resistance movement fighters.
The police had been called for three separate incidents at the property.123RF
A woman’s 14-year-old grandson was nearly mowed down by her neighbour’s car, while her son was threatened with a machete.
Now an elderly Tongan woman has gone to the Tenancy Tribunal, after Kāinga Ora refused to terminate her tenancy, despite the woman living in “constant fear” of the family next door.
The woman, who has name suppression, had lived at the Kāinga Ora property since 2019.
A female tenant lives at another Kāinga Ora property next door with her male partner and their children.
According to a recently released decision, the woman claimed that, during the tenancy, abuse was constantly shouted out at her over the fence, her daughter and son had been challenged to fights, rubbish had been thrown over the fence, and loud music had been played for long periods into the night on a boombox being carried up and down the road.
She’d also been sworn at in her driveway, had rocks thrown at her and her family, and was harassed when she called the police.
The police had been called for three separate incidents – one on 4 February, 2024, when the male neighbour was reported as being hostile and shouting threats, while standing at the tenant’s front gate.
A second incident occurred on 2 March, 2024, when the male neighbour was reported as standing outside the tenant’s front gate, making threats, while holding a machete.
The most volatile experience came when they had threatened to kill her son with a machete on 10 June last year.
The son said the male neighbour was working in the garden with a shovel and a machete, and started to abuse him and his son, and threatened to kill them.
The man was charged with threatening to kill, but was convicted of a lesser charge in relation to the weapon.
The woman’s daughter also provided a written statement to the authority and gave evidence at the hearing about an incident in which her 14-year-old son was walking home from school, when the male tenant was returning home in a car.
She said the male tenant chased her son in the car, driving onto the grass verge, and that her son was only able to escape by hiding behind a boat situated on a grass verge. The police were called, but attended the next day.
‘Lives in constant fear’
The woman said she “lives in constant fear” of the neighbouring tenants and will often stay inside her home, because she is too afraid to venture outside. On occasion, she had stayed with her daughter, because she couldn’t cope with being at home.
She had health issues that impacted her mobility and sight, and recently had a stroke.
She and her son had reported the behaviour to Kāinga Ora numerous times during the tenancy, but their response had always been to tell her and her family to keep to themselves, and not engage with the neighbours.
She said she initially wanted the neighbour to move, so she could live in peace, but now that she had health issues, she wanted to leave the tenancy.
Kāinga Ora did not dispute that the tenant had reported ongoing issues with this tenancy, and was well aware of the tenant’s complaints of shouting, abuse and loud music.
It confirmed that the organisation had been notified of the three police incidents, but said the issue was complex, because on some occasions, there was aggression on both sides, including a physical altercation between the male neighbour and the tenant’s son, which resulted in an antisocial notice being issued to both.
Kāinga Ora said it had considered whether it could terminate the neighbour’s tenancy under section 55A of the Residential Tenancies Act (termination for assault), following the machete incident, but ultimately determined it could not do so, because the neighbouring tenant herself was not home and the male at the address was not a listed tenant, and had threatened this tenant’s son and not the tenant herself.
The organisation was also unable to apply to terminate the tenancy for antisocial behaviour, as there had not been three incidents within a 90-day period.
Tribunal adjudicator Melissa Allan said the tenant had been “left in a very difficult situation”.
“She has not felt free to move about her property, often remains inside, and has been subjected to unreasonable levels of noise, rubbish being thrown, screaming and yelling, and threats being made to her family members.
“The landlord should have filed an application to terminate the neighbouring tenancy. It is not necessary for criminal charges to be proven or even laid.
“The landlord only needed to prove, to the civil standard, that the tenant has been interfering with the reasonable pace, comfort and privacy of the tenant, and that the breach is of such a nature and of such an extent that it would be inequitable to refuse to make an order terminating the tenancy.”
By failing to take steps, the landlord had breached its obligations, she said.
Kāinga Ora was ordered to pay the tenant $5000 in compensation for breach of landlord’s obligations and was looking to transfer the tenant to a tenancy that is more suited to her current health needs.
A police car seen behind a cordon as officers attend an incident.RNZ
Police are following “strong lines of enquiry”, after an Auckland shooting on Saturday left a man with moderate injuries.
Officers were conducting patrols in the Clevedon Road area in the suburb of Papakura on Saturday morning, when they heard what was believed to be gunshots at about 11.20am.
A short time later, a man was transported to hospital in a moderate condition with a gunshot injury.
A police spokesperson said they were following “strong lines of inquiry” into what had occurred.
“Initial indications are that the victim and the offenders are known to each other, and there is no risk to the wider community.”
Officers, including the Armed Offenders Squad, had been conducting enquiries at a Grove Road address on Saturday afternoon, but no arrests were made.
Cordons that had been in place in Grove Road were stood down.
The spokesperson said Clevedon Road and Grove Road residents could expect to see a continued police presence on Saturday evening, as officers continued enquiries.
They asked that anyone with information that might assist their investigation contact them via 105.
– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
Daniel Hillier plays a shot during the third round of the 105th New Zealand Open.Photosport
A stunning late surge has vaulted Kiwi Daniel Hillier to the top of the NZ Open leaderboard at Millbrook Resort, near Queenstown.
The Wellingtonian was four strokes off leader and fellow Kiwi Kerry Mountcastle, when he lined up to play the 14th hole.
He birdied that, followed up with another birdie, parred the 16th, eagled the 17th and birdied the last to finish with a seven-under-par 64 to be 18-under with a round to play.
Hillier has been a force on the European tour this year and is the highest-ranked player in the field this week. He was runner-up at the NZ Open in 2024.
Masterton golfer Mountcastle also hit a 64 and is tied for second with Australian Curtis Luck, who hit 63. They are a stroke behind Hillier.
Another Aussie, Lucas Herbert, went around in 62 and sits fourth, a further stroke back.
Hillier had played steady golf before his late surge.
“That was a crazy last few holes,” he said. “I didn’t have my best early on.
“It was one of those days and I had to stay patient. I knew there were a couple of par-fives I could take advantage of later in the piece.
“Thankfully, I could do that and it was pretty cool to get one at the last as well, in front of that massive crowd.”
Hillier, who has had two top-five finishes on the DP World Tour already this year, is obviously keen to continue his good vein of form in the final round.
“Looking ahead to tomorrow, I would love a replay of that and some more,” he said. “Obviously, I have a job to do.
“I will rest up tonight and have a good sleep, and come out firing.”
Mountcastle could have had the outright lead had he birdied the final hole, but he dropped a stroke, after his tee shot landed in the water.
New Zealander Kerry Mountcastle is tied for second after three rounds.Photosport
The 30-year-old rated his round, which included nine birdies, as “nine out of 10”.
“Everything was kind of firing,” he said. “I’m sort of not really thinking about what’s happening in the tournament.
“It’s just I’m out here trying to hit shot after shot and it’s kind of the first time when I’ve been up the top, where I’ve been this comfortable.
“Normally I’m always thinking about, “Oh, I need to do this or what’s going on about that?”
The overnight leader after the second round, New Zealand amateur teenager Yuki Miya hit a 70 for a share of fifth place at 13-under.
One of the world’s top players on the PGA Championship tour, Kiwi Steven Alker has a share of ninth place at 12-under. He and compatriot Sam Jones both scored 66 in the third round.
“Today was moving day and I wanted to be a little more aggressive, but tomorrow, I am going to need to be really aggressive to catch the guys in front,” Alker said.
“I am having a blast with ‘Goldie’ [former All Black Jeff Wilson] on the bag, and it’s been a lot of fun and great to be back in New Zealand playing again. That is the coolest part.”
South Korea’s Chan Choi matched the championship course record with a 10-under-par 61. After making the cut on the number, he is now in a share of eighth at 12-under.
– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
US President Donald Trump had been talking about it.
‘Some US action expected’ “Most people expected some sort of United States action. So there is surprise that Israel has gone first.
“But there will be speculation here in the United States — inevitably — that this is [Israeli Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu once again trying to force the United States to take action against Iran.
“And the reason he has done this is to try and force their hand.”
In an eight-minute video message shared on Truth Social, he said: “Short time ago, US military began major combat operation in Iran. Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating threats from the Iranian regime.”
Mehran Kamrava, director of the Iranian studies unit at the Arab Centre for Research and Policy Studies and professor at Georgetown University in Qatar, said Israel appeared to have “launched an attack designed to derail the [nuclear] negotiations” between the US and Iran. A new round of talks had been scheduled for next week.
Auckland FC’s Guillermo May scores against Melbourne City.Photosport
Auckland FC have kept the pressure on A-League men’s leaders Newcastle Jets with a stunning 3-0 home win over Melbourne City.
Logan Rogerson broke his goalscoring drought with a decisive blow to give the Aucklanders a 1-0 lead after 42 minutes, and Jesse Randall (59th minute) and Guillermo May (66th minute) followed up in the second half for a comprehensive victory.
The result narrowed the Jets’ competition lead to just one point, although the Newcastle side were playing Central Coast Mariners on Saturday night.
After a poor January, the Aucklanders have had a brilliant February, looking much more like the team won the Premiers Plate last season.
They delighted their fans with this performance, although it did come at a cost, with captain Hiroki Sakai leaving the field late in the first half with an injury to his right leg, after as series of heavy collisions.
He was replaced by Sam Cosgrove.
Rogerson had gone 16 matches without a goal this season, but he latched on to a cross from May, heading it into the back of the net.
He admitted after the match to some sleepless nights, because of the drought.
“I’m delighted to break my duck and get my first goal of the season,” he told the Sky Sports broadcast.
Randall hasn’t had such goalscoring blues and pounced to score his ninth for the season, after an error by City defender Harrison Delbridge. Randall now leads the competition in scoring.
May scored his goal, after heading in a cross from Randall.
Auckland FC host Perth Glory next Sunday.
– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
Scott Dixon’s car after a nasty crash during practice in Florida.Twitter/Indycar
Kiwi motorsport ace Scott Dixon has emerged uninjured from a nasty crash during practice for the IndyCar St Petersburg Grand Prix in Florida.
During the first practice session – in which compatriot Scott McLaughlin had the fastest time – Dixon’s Ganassi Racing Honda slid across turn nine and collided head-first into a concrete barrier.
The car sustained heavy damage to the front, but Dixon emerged unhurt, but not before David Malukas just avoided contact with the stricken car, sneaking through a gap between the left barrier and Dixon’s left sidepod.
“Kind of a frustrating one,” Dixon said. “I got loose on entry and tried to save it, and then kind of got into an overcorrection.
“Luckily, it slid off a lot of the speed, before it hit the wall. Sometimes, you can tub a car and destroy them.
“Hopefully this isn’t too bad.”
The crash resulted in a red flag, one of three during the practice session.
Despite the damage, Dixon didn’t think he would need a back-up car for the opening Indycar race for the season, which starts at 7am Monday (NZT).
Scott Dixon has had at least one victory in 21 consecutive IndyCar seasons.PHOTOSPORT
“It actually looked fine,” said Dixon, who has had 21 consecutive IndyCar seasons with a victory.
“The rear was not bad. I think they’ll just have to change suspension, the front nose and front wing obviously, but then even the front suspension didn’t look that bad.
“It was kind of weird, so yeah, weird as in good weird.”
McLaughlin, who has had two previous pole starts at St Petersburg, had the quickest lap in 1m 1.1020s in his Team Penske Chevrolet on the 14-turn, temporary street circuit.
He led both the earlier portion of the 85-minute practice that contained all 25 cars and improved upon that time in the smaller session, after the field was divided into two groups.
“Decent first day,” McLaughlin said. “Obviously, being P1 is a great start.
“The DEX Imaging Chevy was straight away fast and felt good and comfortable. It’s good for us.
“It’s the start of a long season and it was nice to have a smooth session to start. We’ll keep pressing on and see how we go.”
Felix Rosenqvist was second overall and Florida native Kyle Kirkwood third.
Another New Zealander, Marcus Armstrong, was seventh.
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
Breakers coach Petteri Koponen is leaving the club.Blake Armstrong/Photosport
NZ Breakers and head coach Petteri Koponen have parted ways, and the club will advertise globally for a replacement.
The Finn coached the Breakers for two seasons, with the side finishing ninth of the 10 teams last year, followed by seventh in the regular season just completed.
After discussions with club management, he is leaving, with the club saying he didn’t seek a contract extension and was looking for new professional opportunities closer to Finland.
Koponen said he was after a new challenge.
“My time in New Zealand has been one of the most rewarding chapters of my career,” he said. “I fell in love with this country and the incredible community that supports the Breakers.
“However, after two seasons of intense growth in the NBL and the immense satisfaction of bringing the Ignite Cup to Auckland, I am ready for a new challenge.
“I want to thank the club, the players and the fans for embracing me. I am proud of the culture we’ve built and I leave with the highest respect for this club.”
The Breakers said Koponen had instilled a modern, high-intensity European style of play that culminated in the inaugural Ignite Cup victory.
“Petteri is a young coach on the rise and we support his desire to pursue opportunities closer to home,” said Breakers basketball operations president Dillon Boucher.
“Professional coaching at this level demands immense sacrifice, especially half a world away from home. We’ve reached a mutual agreement that the time is right for Petteri to pursue his next professional challenge.
“He departs with his mana higher than ever and will always hold a permanent place within our Breakers whānau.”
The club said it would look for a new coach capable of taking the Breakers to the top of the NBL rankings.
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
Experts say that the real rule change is simply that when things go wrong, the burden of responsibility will be on the homeowner, not the council.123rf
Rule changes for putting a granny flat on your section cut very little red tape, but move questions of liability from councils to homeowners
No garage conversions, no house extensions, no old materials or relocated cottages, no DIY practitioners, no mezzanine floors and no accessible showers.
The government’s new rules for building a granny flat, or ‘minor standalone dwelling’, on your own property cut through one layer of paperwork and will likely save plans from being clogged up at council level, but they’re still complex, full of restrictions and just as expensive as they always were.
The real change these rules bring, say experts, is that when things go wrong, they shift the burden of responsibility from the council to homeowners.
Karel Boakes is the president of the Building Officials Institute of New Zealand, an organisation with around 1200 members who deal with building surveying, controls and regulations in both the private sector and in councils.
From what she’s seen in the month or so since the law came in, there’s been no rush to build these standalone dwellings – she says licensed building practitioners appear to be wary of shouldering the burden of responsibility for any failures.
“They’re concerned,” she says.
“They’re concerned for the homeowners and potentially the risks that they might be taking on if they choose to follow this route.”
“Obviously they’re not against efficiencies where they can be made. That’s common sense and we’re all on board with that. But we’re also trying to weigh up the level of risk that people could be exposed to if buildings are built in a way that’s not compliant or in a way that [poses problems] financially with insurance or what have you.”
Boakes says officials want to make sure people go into these processes with their eyes wide open, understanding the risks.
“There’s definitely a shift of liability.”
Before the regulation changed there was a level of surety in council checks, but we saw from the leaky building crisis that meant that councils were often the “last man standing” – the only organisation still around answering questions of liability when builders and developers went bust. Now the responsibility for any issues down the line falls on the homeowner, and those licensed building practitioners who supervised the job.
The only council responsibility comes right at the start of an application for a standalone dwelling when it issues a PIM – a Project Information Memorandum – which details information about the land or the project that they need to take account of, such as unstable land or flood plains.
“The council won’t be taking any liability any more in terms of assessing, or checking, or inspecting,” says Boakes.
The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment has put out comprehensive information about the processes involved.
It says the granny flats building consent exemption allows small standalone dwellings of up to 70 square metres to be built without a building consent, if it has a simple design and meets the building code; homeowners notify the council before they start building and when they’re finished; the work is carried out or supervised by licensed building professionals; and all the exemption conditions are met.
You can download the seven forms required from the site, read the three checklists, five step-by-step guides and five fact sheets, and there are links to 12 professional groups that might be involved.
So there’s no excuse for winging it.
Bill McKay, a senior lecturer at the School of Architecture and Planning, University of Auckland, tells The Detail that when the rules came out, he was taken aback by the level of requirements – “all the things that you do and have to worry about”.
“One of the questions I’m mostly commonly asked is, ‘can I build it myself?’
“Short answer – absolutely not,” he says.
He says not having to get a building consent will save time, with the council unable to put off its issuing of a PIM. But a building consent is one thing – “you’ll still need building advice from someone who can draw up plans for you and that sort of thing. We might still need a resource consent, and this is a pitfall for lots of people.
“You can’t build just anywhere you want in your back yard. We have certain rules about minimum permeable and impermeable area so that rainfall will soak away, which is all good. And we have distances that we have to keep from neighbours … all that sort of thing as well.
“I think a lot of people will just sort of leap into it without doing their homework first and doing it properly, and that could get them in trouble from various angles.”
Then there’s the sting at the end – while it varies throughout the country, most councils will charge a development fee, and in some places that could be around $25,000. Your rates will go up too, having added another bathroom and more square metres to your estate.
Meanwhile McKay has picked out an aspect of the regulations he calls ‘ironic’ – even if your little house is for granny, you can’t have a recessed shower, where you could wheel in or get in without tripping over if you were unstable on your feet.
“The reason for that is, they haven’t developed a class of LBP who can do that.”
That means the supervisory aspect of the project couldn’t be met – so accessible showers are on the no-go list.
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Tropical cyclone Urmil near Vanuatu, 28 February 2026Zoom Earth
Vanuatu’s national disaster management office has issued a red alert for TAFEA province as a tropical cyclone hovers near the province.
Tropical Cyclone Urmil formed southwest of Port Vila on Friday.
It has now been upgraded to a Category 2 according to the Fiji Meteorological Service.
“At 5am local time, 28 February, analysis put this cyclone at 20 degrees South, 169.9 degree East, and that is roughly south east of Tanna island in the TAFEA province,” according to the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geohazard Department’s Tropical Cyclone Supervisor, Jerry Timothy.
TAFEA province is made up of the islands of Tanna, Aneityum, Futuna, Erromango and Aniwa.
Timothy said the cyclone moved into the TAFEA province from the West, from the Western side of the island group, there.
“Most probably the first island, Erromango hasn’t that much of the cyclone, maybe to the west of the island, but Tanna, which is the island in the middle, the tropical cyclone came very close to the south of the island, moving to the south,” he said.
It said heavy rainfalls with flash flooding are expected over low lying areas and areas close to river banks, including coastal flooding over TAFEA today. Very rough seas with heavy to phenomenal swells are expected over the area mention above.
A marine strong wind warning is also current for central and southern waters of Vanuatu. High Seas wind warning is also current for all open waters of Vanuatu. People, including sea going vessels are advised to take precautions.
Jerry Timothy said people can expect wind gusts of up to 105km/h.
Communities on Tanna island were preparing for a night of heavy weather as Tropical cyclone Urmil passed close-by.
Mora Kapum of White Grass Ocean Resort in Lenakel told RNZ Pacific that there was heavy rain and strong winds last night, leading to some minor flooding.
She said there is no serious damage there but there is a lot of cleaning up today, and it’s still very windy.
Red alert
When a RED ALERT is issued, you need to stay in a safe shelter:
Stay tuned and informed through Radio, TV, SMS, or Internet
Turn off all gas and electricity and unplug all electrical items from the sockets
Stay in the strongest and safest part of your house or the evacuation centre and do not go outside
Stay away from doors and windows and keep them closed and locked
Remain indoors or in safe place and continue to listen to the radio and do not go outside until National Disaster Management Office issues the ‘ALL CLEAR’ after the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geohazard Department cancels the cyclone warning for your area.
Take care to avoid dangers caused by fallen powerlines, trees, damaged building and other debris
Support your family and neighbours especially the most vulnerable in your community
– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
Tommy Te Puni races to a 100 metres behind Tiaan Whelpton at Sir Graeme Douglas International.David Rowland/Photosport
Two years have passed, but Tommy Te Puni finally has his name in the record books.
Last weekend, the Auckland speedster claimed the national 200 metres mark, when he tore around a bend – but not THE bend – at Christchurch’s Nga Puna Wai Sports Hub and crossed the finish line in 20.35s, slicing two-hundredths of a second off the previous standard.
“It means a lot,” he told RNZ. “Coming off a bit of bad luck and a lot of injuries, it’s pretty good to get one of those on the board.
“Being a New Zealand record, it’s special, not just for me, but for all the people who have supported me, like my family and especially my coach, who sets up all the programmes, and deals with the ups and downs just as much as me.
“I’m really happy, not just for myself, but for everyone else around me that have helped me along the way.”
In November 2023, Te Puni was the victim of a timing malfunction that some believe cost him the first sub-46-second 400m by a Kiwi male at a local club meet.
Since then, he has battled a variety of injuries that have stymied his hopes of ever reaching his potential – until now.
Ironically, one of those injuries seems to have played a part in his current run of form.
Te Puni, 23, broke his foot during a northern hemisphere campaign that included the World University Games in Germany, which delayed his return to the track until the new year.
Instead of running his best times before Christmas, then hitting a wall afterwards, he is only now reaching a peak at the business end of the season.
His performance at the International Track Meet came off the back of a series of quick times over the preceding month. A 10.36s 100m personal best at the Douglas International in Auckland was followed by a solid 10.40s/20.89s double into slight headwinds at Hamilton’s Porritt Classic.
“This was the first week I actually felt fresh,” he explained. “For me, it usually takes quite a few weeks to freshen up, so even leading into Porritt, I wasn’t really feeling that good.
“In New Zealand, it’s a big thing to run 20-point, but it didn’t feel that good. I was overstriding, and I didn’t feel that fresh, so we went back to the drawing board.”
Personal bests over 150m in training had him and coach Elena Brown believing something special was near.
“We were thinking high 20.4s was what I was showing, so 20.35 was a pleasant surprise.”
Te Puni tuned up for his record run with a wind-assisted 10.26s 100m, although wind readings only told half the story. While winner Tiaan Whelpton clocked 10.01s with a 4.9m/s tailwind, four minutes before, the women supposedly ran into a 3.4m/s headwind.
In reality, the wind was a swirling side, so meet organisers switched the 200m start to take advantage of conditions around the bend. Three years ago, they did the same for Rosie Elliott, when she clocked a 22.81s national women’s record.
The maximum allowable tailwind for record purposes is 2.0 m/s. Te Puni’s 200m wind was 1.2 m/s.
“It’s a northwesterly, a true tailwind around the bend, but not helping you too much down the straight,” he said. “You come off the curve, you slingshot and just hold that momentum through to the finish line.
“The wind is coming from a direction that it doesn’t fully hit the wind metre, which is really good.”
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Te Puni’s achievement sets up the unique prospect of all three men’s sprint records falling in the same season.
Whelpton has now gone under the 100m standard twice with excessive winds, while clocking 10.10s – 0.02s outside the national mark – legally. He only needs the right wind to break the record and possibly crack 10 seconds.
Last season, Lex Revell-Lewis broke 46 seconds for the 400m (45.88s) and showed he was capable of faster still, when he clocked 10.36w/20.49s at Christchurch.
Six runners beat 10.50s over 100m at the ITM, albeit wind-assisted. In seventh, 14-year-old Vern Toaloamai-Holden recorded 10.67s.
Four runners beat 21.00 seconds over 200 metres, another slice of NZ sprinting history.
Why is NZ sprinting enjoying a resurgence?
“It’s a good question,” Te Puni mused. “I think it’s just a question of timing, when everyone’s around a similar point, but you also have trailblazers like Tiaan, trying to get that 9.99s.
“It’s inspiring for people, and you want to chase those top guys. When I ran the 200m, they’re all chasing me, but it’s not like there’s someone who’s clear and above everyone else that you lose motivation.
“There’s a bit of luck with the depth, and everyone wants to beat each other.”
For their part, meet organisers have done their best to provide optimal conditions for performances.
“I’m sure all athletes will agree with me, but when you turn up to a race and there’s no hope of them flipping the track, and you have to run into a three-metre headwind… that’s not much fun.
“If they flip the track and the wind’s blowing at three, but I might get lucky, and get a 1.5 and new PB (personal best). Psychologically, that just gets you more amped up to race.
“They did it at Cooks [Whanganui], they did it at Sir Graeme [Douglas International], they did it at Christchurch… I’m pretty sure they’ll do it for the 100s and hopefully 200s at nationals.”
A community initiative to promote national relay teams has also created a collective approach to what was previously an individual sport, while fostering competition within the squad.
Early attempts at a men’s 4x100m record have seen Te Puni miss out on the top foursome, but current form may force a selection rethink.
“It gives a lot of athletes more opportunity to potentially get onto that world stage, but it also ties into wanting to be in that team and getting that spot,” he said. “The relays elevate the competition, because you don’t want that guy or that girl to get your spot, so you want to perform the best you can.”
Te Puni hasn’t contested the 400m this summer, but wouldn’t rule out another shot at that record in the future.
.
“We’re trying to work out where to get one in, but because I only really started running at the start of this month, there wasn’t really time to fit in a 400,” he said. “We were thinking about Sir Graeme Douglas, but stuck with the short sprints, because that was where my shape was at the moment.
“We’re keen to get one in March maybe. I’m not sure, but it would be nice to run another one, because my speed is at an all-time high at the moment and that typically bodes well for a quick 400.
“At the moment, it’s just 200, especially with nationals.”
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
The Hurricanes are looking to make it two from two against Pacific teams, as they head to Lautoka to play the Fijian Drua on Saturday afternoon.
Callum Harkin will start at first-five for the Wellington-based outfit, while the Drua are still chasing their first win of the Super Rugby Pacific season.
Anaru Morunga is on trial for the alleged murder of his ex-partner and the mother of his two children, Jasmaine Reihana.NZME/SUPPLED
Warning: This article discusses graphic violence and may be upsetting to some readers.
After two weeks of silence, the defence in a murder trial finally rose and shifted the focus from the brutality of an alleged act to the question of the accused’s state of mind.
As Anaru Morunga’s trial nears its end, today marked the first moment defence lawyer Arthur Fairley addressed the jury and reframed the case.
“We’re dealing with this man’s mind. Not your mind, not my mind … it’s what this man’s mind thinks,” Fairley said in his closing statement.
Morunga has been on trial in the High Court at Whangārei on eight charges, including murder, related to events surrounding the death of his ex-partner, 35-year-old Jasmaine Reihana.
The couple had two children together but separated in 2018. It was unclear what the status of their relationship was at the time of her death on 8 September, 2024, after they had attended a tangi together in Ōtorohanga.
For 10 days, the jury has heard evidence from multiple Crown witnesses, including forensic experts and police officers, about events that occurred across the days leading up to Reihana’s death.
The Crown alleges Morunga murdered Reihana by stabbing her at the Pouto peninsula home in Northland that he shared with his mother, Suzanne Morunga, and her partner Michael Jones.
He is also accused of arson after allegedly setting Reihana’s car alight with her body inside at the far end of the Ripirō Beach farm, before fleeing and leading police on a State Highway 12 chase that ended with his arrest near the Brynderwyn Hills.
Today, he changed his plea on two of the eight charges he has been defending, admitting charges related to unlawfully taking a tractor and quad bike owned by his boss, Chris Biddles.
On the other charges, Morunga has repeatedly acknowledged killing Reihana, telling police he cut her throat before placing her body in her car and towing it to the beach by tractor. He continues to deny that he was the one who set the vehicle alight.
That admission has not only been heard by the jury through his evidential interview with police played in court, but also when he chose to take the stand yesterday.
“I just walked over to her, grabbed her, pulled the knife out and cut her throat,” he said in his police interview recorded in September 2024.
But when he gave close to four hours of evidence yesterday, his narrative changed.
He claimed Reihana had a gun and he had to kill her to protect his family.
“I pulled, she pulled, I won,” he testified.
He then demonstrated for the court how he cut Reihana’s neck.
In Crown closings, prosecutor Bernadette O’Connor told the jury Morunga was making things up to fit the evidence that had been presented.
“Folding up the paper napkin so it resembled a knife. Not something he was asked to do, something he did of his own volition to demonstrate how he killed Ms Reihana,” O’Connor said.
“Claiming he didn’t mean for her to die. I submit that flies in the face of the evidence and flies in the face of common sense.
“He meant to kill her.”
O’Connor said there were eight pages of transcript of Morunga detailing the slaying, even saying he was good with knives and trained to kill animals humanely.
“He didn’t seem to afford that humane killing to Jasmaine Reihana,” O’Connor said.
She said the new story about a gun being present was “simply not true”.
“When I pointed out he has never mentioned it, he said ‘I was a very broken man then’,” O’Connor said.
“A broken man? Or a man who was relaxed, enjoying his moment in the spotlight?”
O’Connor said Morunga had made a “fantastical story” that Reihana was having an affair, she was going to kill his family and sell his children to the Mongrel Mob.
“He will come up with anything that he can to get away with murder.”
O’Connor said he was high on methamphetamine, and being under the influence of drugs was not a defence to murder.
“The fault for her murder lies solely and squarely at the feet of Anaru Morunga.”
During the trial, Morunga’s lawyer, Arthur Fairley, did not cross-examine many witnesses and did not give an opening statement to the jury.
Today, in his closing address to the jury, he began by acknowledging the overwhelming evidence presented at the trial.
“I would suggest to you, members of the jury, there wouldn’t be a heart in this room that wouldn’t be tugged by that,” Fairley said.
“But in this room, in a trial like this, we’re not allowed to have our hearts tugged.”
Fairley said the key issue for determining the murder charge relied on establishing Morunga’s intent.
“The facts are, none of us were there,” Fairley submitted.
“He made some remarkable concessions for a man in a murder trial.
“Here’s the point. You might think the mind we’re dealing with at the material time had an imaginative grip of reality. But that’s the quality of the mind that has to be taken into account.”
Fairley submitted that Morunga had not uttered that he was going to kill Reihana before, during or after the act and therefore did not have murderous intent.
“Isolate what the issues are and try to give some analysis,” Morunga said.
“On the murder, they can’t make you sure what was in this man’s head at the material time.
“If they can’t make you sure, he’s not guilty of murder; it’s manslaughter.”
The jury was released for the weekend and will return on Monday for Justice David Johnstone’s summation of the case.
‘That’s Not A Knife’ on the launch pad at LC-2.Supplied / Rocket Lab
New Zealand-founded company Rocket Lab has successfully launched its latest space mission for the US Department of War.
The HASTE rocket, called ‘That’s Not A Knife’, lifted off from Wallops Island in Virginia in the US at 1pm on Saturday (NZ time) from Launch Complex 2 at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport.
[embedded content]
It was Rocket Lab’s second successful launch of a hypersonic test mission for the US Department of War’s Defense Innovation Unit, and the seventh HASTE rocket launch overall. Rocket Lab said all HASTE missions to date have achieved 100 percent success.
The launch was the company’s third of the year and its 82nd overall.
HASTE stands for hypersonic accelerator suborbital test electron, and is a suborbital testbed launch vehicle.
Suborbital missions enter space but don’t stay there.
The mission deployed DART AE, a scramjet-powered aircraft developed by Australian aerospace engineering firm Hypersonix, into a suborbital hypersonic flight environment at several times the speed of sound.
‘That’s Not A Knife’ mission payload.Supplied / Rocket Lab
Rocket Lab said the work was supporting a critical national priority to advance hypersonic technology for the United States and its allies.
Rocket Lab’s vice president of global launch services, Brian Rogers, said the launch was another proud moment for the HASTE team and a great showcase of the important commercial platform it has become for the Department of War.
‘That’s Not A Knife’ on the launch pad at LC-2.Supplied / Rocket Lab
“Regular and reliable HASTE launches are helping to accelerate hypersonic readiness for the nation, and we take pride in providing the foundation to a new era of testing of this critical technology to protect the United States space security,” said Rogers.
Hypersonix chief executive Matt Hill said successfully flying DART AE in a real hypersonic environment marked a major milestone for the company’s flight test programme and moved it closer to delivering reusable hypersonic capability.
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on February 28, 2026.
Cuban ambassador denounces US aggression and violations of international law INTERVIEW: By Eugene Doyle This is a moment of great peril for the small Caribbean nation of Cuba. Nothing less than its sovereignty is on the line as the US drives its knee into the neck of 10 million Cubans by means of a crushing air and sea blockade and a set of secondary sanctions
Keith Rankin Analysis – New Zealand’s Fiscal Crisis Analysis by Keith Rankin, 27 February 2026. I heard this on RNZ News 11am 12 Feb 2026: “The government’s finances are in better shape than expected due to lower [government] spending and a higher tax take. Treasury figures … show a deficit of $5.2b for the six months ended December, almost $1.6b below the half-year
Keith Rankin Essay – Vagrants and a Very Basic Universal Income Essay by Keith Rankin, 25 February 2026. Over the last few days, there has been plenty of media chatter in relation to the government’s proposal to pass a law enabling police to forcibly shift street dwellers from Auckland’s CBD. (Refer ‘Move On’ orders penalise those with the least, Scoop 22 Feb 2026.) While Labour likes
Keith Rankin Essay – Milano-Cortina, Pandemic Central Essay by Keith Rankin, 20 February 2026. Imagine if the Olympic Games were currently being held in Wuhan, China. There would be widespread mentionings of it having been the starting place of the Covid19 pandemic, in December 2019. But pandemics (not ‘global pandemics’; pandemics are global by definition, as are world wars) have two places
Keith Rankin Analysis – Parliamentary Term Length; is New Zealand really an Outlier? Analysis by Keith Rankin, 19 February 2026 The RNZ news bulletin of 10pm on 18 February stated: “New Zealand and Australia are outliers in having three-year parliamentary terms, with four or five year terms far more common … politicians have over the years expressed frustration at how much can be achieved in a three-year cycle.”
Local plumber Hannah Spencer beats both Reform and Labour to win UK byelection Novara Media In a spectacular triumph, Britain’s Green Party has won the Gorton and Denton byelection in Greater Manchester. Local plumber Hannah Spencer has now become the party’s fifth MP — a historic victory for the ascendent Greens, who ran a campaign of national hope and international solidarity against Israel’s genocide in Gaza. The byelection
Amnesty slams global impunity fueling Israel’s illegal West Bank annexation measures Amnesty International Amnesty International has condemned Israeli authorities over unleashing a series of unlawful measures deliberately designed to dispossess Palestinians in the occupied West Bank — including East Jerusalem — and to make the annexation of the territory an irreversible reality. These decisions since December 2025 represent an unprecedented escalation – in scale and speed
Woolworths’ AI agent rambled about its ‘mother’. It’s a sign of deeper problems with the tech rollout Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Uri Gal, Professor in Business Information Systems, University of Sydney Recently some Australian shoppers got more than they bargained for when they chatted with Woolworths’ artificial intelligence (AI) assistant, Olive. Instead of sticking to groceries, recipes and basket suggestions, Olive reportedly produced strange, overly human-like responses. It
Why Commonwealth Bank’s $1 billion suspected loan fraud should change how we bank and do business Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Toby Walsh, Professor of AI, Research Group Leader, UNSW Sydney The Commonwealth Bank reportedly suspects around A$1 billion in home loans were obtained fraudulently, including through AI-generated documents. The Australian Financial Review says the bank has reported itself to police and the corporate watchdog to investigate. According
What is Aspergillus, the fungus behind recent hospital deaths? Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Thomas Jeffries, Senior Lecturer in Microbiology, Western Sydney University A common mould has killed two people, and left four others seriously ill, at one of Sydney’s largest hospitals. Health authorities are investigating a cluster of fungal infections at the Royal Prince Alfred Hospital’s transplant unit. Six patients
Home ground disadvantage? How sleep and travel could impact the Matildas Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michele Lastella, Senior Lecturer, CQUniversity Australia On paper, the Matildas should have a major advantage playing on home soil for the upcoming Women’s Asian Cup. However, from a sleep and travel perspective, they may be fighting a hidden disadvantage despite Australia hosting the tournament, which runs from
View from The Hill: Ley formally resigns, tells Taylor it’s ‘vital’ he holds Farrer Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Deposed Liberal leader Sussan Ley formally resigned from parliament on Friday – and sent a blunt challenge to her successor, Angus Taylor, in her farewell statement. Speaker Milton Dick will now set the date for the byelection in the regional
NSW’s new rapid response police unit may help some people feel safer, but it also raises difficult questions Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Poe, Associate Professor of Social and Political Thought, Australian Catholic University The New South Wales government has just announced the launch of a new, permanent rapid response police unit. Composed of about 250 officers and 28 administrative staff, the unit will be equipped with a fleet
Ed Sheeran caught the train to Melbourne to protect the climate. But what about his thousands of fans? Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milad Haghani, Associate Professor and Principal Fellow in Urban Risk and Resilience, The University of Melbourne This week, images on social media showed global superstar Ed Sheeran alighting from the overnight train from Sydney into the decidedly utilitarian surrounds of Southern Cross Station in Melbourne. In Australia
Most forecasts expect house prices to rise less than 5 percent this year.RNZ / REECE BAKER
New Zealand’s economy is expected to continue to slowly recover this year.
But unlike previous recoveries, this time, it’s not likely to be dragged up by rising house prices. Most forecasts are for prices to rise less than 5 percent this year – and some forecasters expect half that.
Michael Gordon, a senior economist at Westpac, has issued a new report looking at whether the economy can have a sustained recovery without help from rising house prices making people feel wealthier.
He said he had encountered scepticism about whether it was possible. But he said, in part, it was already happening.
“Retail spending has consistently risen over the last five quarters, at a time when house prices were effectively flat. But it’s not certain that this can be maintained in the face of what are some still-subdued house price expectations for the year ahead.
“The recent economic literature points to a solution. There is growing support for the idea that what we observe as a ‘housing wealth effect’ is actually more of an income expectations effect, driving both spending and house prices higher.”
He said it had been clear in the past that when house prices were rising, people tended to be more willing to spend because they felt their house was “doing the saving for them”.
“We’ve noted in the past that there has historically been a strong relationship between housing wealth and household spending in New Zealand, and arguably stronger here than in other developed economies. But the relationship doesn’t hold all of the time, and especially not in more recent years, as Covid and the subsequent policy responses have led to significant volatility in both house prices and consumption.”
He said even in the absence of house prices lifting in many parts of the country, lower interest rates were having a difference in the economy. Retail sales volumes rose 0.9 percent in December, more than had been expected.
He said there was growing evidence that when people expected their incomes to rise in future they tended to both spend more money and to push house prices higher.
“The magnitude of the effect on house prices will depend on how responsive the supply side is – historically New Zealand’s housing supply has been fairly unresponsive, but there are signs that this is improving.
“All of this is not to say that housing wealth effects don’t exist. But their impact may be in amplifying the economic cycle, rather than being an essential driver of it. We feel that our household spending forecasts have been suitably tempered to match our view on house prices – spending growth of 3 percent to 4 percent over the year ahead is quite achievable in the early stages of a recovery, when the economy still has substantial spare capacity to be used up.”
Shamubeel Eaqub.Supplied
Simplicity chief economist Shamubeel Eaqub said there had been regions that had experienced economic growth without house price growth.
“It’s true that we are very reliant on that channel to supercharge everything … the residential property mortgage market is such a big source of capital into any kind of investments that we make. If house prices are not increasing, we just have less capital to invest. And that’s including in businesses.
“That long tail of small businesses quite often relies on borrowing against the mortgage to be able to grow their businesses. That can be one of the constraints. It absolutely doesn’t go away but does it mean we can’t have any growth without it? I don’t think so. Does it mean we might have less growth or a less rapid recovery to a more dynamic state? Very likely.”
He said there had been economic growth before house prices boomed, and some of it was very strong.
“In fact, quite a lot of the economic growth we might have had post 2000 you might argue wasn’t actually very good quality… when I look at history and I look at our regions, there are periods of history where we’ve had economic growth without house prices running away from incomes. We’ve had economic growth in our provinces that haven’t always experienced high house prices.”
He said much of the downturn had been driven by the drop in disposable income available to households as the price of essentials rose.
But there is also a whole bunch of pent up demand to do things, whether it’s to do work on your homes, to replace things, replace the car, invest in your business, whatever. People have had plans that have been postponed. Recessions tend to be less about things being killed and more about things being postponed.
“The maintenance still has to be done. The expansion will still happen if you think the customers are there. And it’s that chicken and egg. What comes first? Certainly, I think right now what we’re seeing is there’s quite a lot of growth in the provinces… we’ve had pretty good news for sheep and beef farmers as well. When was the last time that happened?
“Wool prices have been pretty good this season so far. Dairy prices plus the payout from selling off our brands businesses. There’s a fair bit of money that’s going to be floating around. I think that might act as a bit of a catalyst. And of course, that reduction in interest rates.
“The big thing that’s going to be the catalyst here, I think, is whether or not banks are out lending. That’s probably the biggest unknown… not just for the price but the quantity of credit. It’s essential debt that supercharges the cycle.”
He said even though it felt like a grinding recession, some people were doing fine.
“It’s not like everybody is experiencing this equally. I think there is a risk in thinking that’s the case. There will be some people who have been waiting to make investments. They have the resources, they have the capital. They have the plans. They might decide now is a good time to make those investments.”
Most forecasts expect house prices to rise less than 5 percent this year.RNZ / REECE BAKER
New Zealand’s economy is expected to continue to slowly recover this year.
But unlike previous recoveries, this time, it’s not likely to be dragged up by rising house prices. Most forecasts are for prices to rise less than 5 percent this year – and some forecasters expect half that.
Michael Gordon, a senior economist at Westpac, has issued a new report looking at whether the economy can have a sustained recovery without help from rising house prices making people feel wealthier.
He said he had encountered scepticism about whether it was possible. But he said, in part, it was already happening.
“Retail spending has consistently risen over the last five quarters, at a time when house prices were effectively flat. But it’s not certain that this can be maintained in the face of what are some still-subdued house price expectations for the year ahead.
“The recent economic literature points to a solution. There is growing support for the idea that what we observe as a ‘housing wealth effect’ is actually more of an income expectations effect, driving both spending and house prices higher.”
He said it had been clear in the past that when house prices were rising, people tended to be more willing to spend because they felt their house was “doing the saving for them”.
“We’ve noted in the past that there has historically been a strong relationship between housing wealth and household spending in New Zealand, and arguably stronger here than in other developed economies. But the relationship doesn’t hold all of the time, and especially not in more recent years, as Covid and the subsequent policy responses have led to significant volatility in both house prices and consumption.”
He said even in the absence of house prices lifting in many parts of the country, lower interest rates were having a difference in the economy. Retail sales volumes rose 0.9 percent in December, more than had been expected.
He said there was growing evidence that when people expected their incomes to rise in future they tended to both spend more money and to push house prices higher.
“The magnitude of the effect on house prices will depend on how responsive the supply side is – historically New Zealand’s housing supply has been fairly unresponsive, but there are signs that this is improving.
“All of this is not to say that housing wealth effects don’t exist. But their impact may be in amplifying the economic cycle, rather than being an essential driver of it. We feel that our household spending forecasts have been suitably tempered to match our view on house prices – spending growth of 3 percent to 4 percent over the year ahead is quite achievable in the early stages of a recovery, when the economy still has substantial spare capacity to be used up.”
Shamubeel Eaqub.Supplied
Simplicity chief economist Shamubeel Eaqub said there had been regions that had experienced economic growth without house price growth.
“It’s true that we are very reliant on that channel to supercharge everything … the residential property mortgage market is such a big source of capital into any kind of investments that we make. If house prices are not increasing, we just have less capital to invest. And that’s including in businesses.
“That long tail of small businesses quite often relies on borrowing against the mortgage to be able to grow their businesses. That can be one of the constraints. It absolutely doesn’t go away but does it mean we can’t have any growth without it? I don’t think so. Does it mean we might have less growth or a less rapid recovery to a more dynamic state? Very likely.”
He said there had been economic growth before house prices boomed, and some of it was very strong.
“In fact, quite a lot of the economic growth we might have had post 2000 you might argue wasn’t actually very good quality… when I look at history and I look at our regions, there are periods of history where we’ve had economic growth without house prices running away from incomes. We’ve had economic growth in our provinces that haven’t always experienced high house prices.”
He said much of the downturn had been driven by the drop in disposable income available to households as the price of essentials rose.
But there is also a whole bunch of pent up demand to do things, whether it’s to do work on your homes, to replace things, replace the car, invest in your business, whatever. People have had plans that have been postponed. Recessions tend to be less about things being killed and more about things being postponed.
“The maintenance still has to be done. The expansion will still happen if you think the customers are there. And it’s that chicken and egg. What comes first? Certainly, I think right now what we’re seeing is there’s quite a lot of growth in the provinces… we’ve had pretty good news for sheep and beef farmers as well. When was the last time that happened?
“Wool prices have been pretty good this season so far. Dairy prices plus the payout from selling off our brands businesses. There’s a fair bit of money that’s going to be floating around. I think that might act as a bit of a catalyst. And of course, that reduction in interest rates.
“The big thing that’s going to be the catalyst here, I think, is whether or not banks are out lending. That’s probably the biggest unknown… not just for the price but the quantity of credit. It’s essential debt that supercharges the cycle.”
He said even though it felt like a grinding recession, some people were doing fine.
“It’s not like everybody is experiencing this equally. I think there is a risk in thinking that’s the case. There will be some people who have been waiting to make investments. They have the resources, they have the capital. They have the plans. They might decide now is a good time to make those investments.”
Most forecasts expect house prices to rise less than 5 percent this year.RNZ / REECE BAKER
New Zealand’s economy is expected to continue to slowly recover this year.
But unlike previous recoveries, this time, it’s not likely to be dragged up by rising house prices. Most forecasts are for prices to rise less than 5 percent this year – and some forecasters expect half that.
Michael Gordon, a senior economist at Westpac, has issued a new report looking at whether the economy can have a sustained recovery without help from rising house prices making people feel wealthier.
He said he had encountered scepticism about whether it was possible. But he said, in part, it was already happening.
“Retail spending has consistently risen over the last five quarters, at a time when house prices were effectively flat. But it’s not certain that this can be maintained in the face of what are some still-subdued house price expectations for the year ahead.
“The recent economic literature points to a solution. There is growing support for the idea that what we observe as a ‘housing wealth effect’ is actually more of an income expectations effect, driving both spending and house prices higher.”
He said it had been clear in the past that when house prices were rising, people tended to be more willing to spend because they felt their house was “doing the saving for them”.
“We’ve noted in the past that there has historically been a strong relationship between housing wealth and household spending in New Zealand, and arguably stronger here than in other developed economies. But the relationship doesn’t hold all of the time, and especially not in more recent years, as Covid and the subsequent policy responses have led to significant volatility in both house prices and consumption.”
He said even in the absence of house prices lifting in many parts of the country, lower interest rates were having a difference in the economy. Retail sales volumes rose 0.9 percent in December, more than had been expected.
He said there was growing evidence that when people expected their incomes to rise in future they tended to both spend more money and to push house prices higher.
“The magnitude of the effect on house prices will depend on how responsive the supply side is – historically New Zealand’s housing supply has been fairly unresponsive, but there are signs that this is improving.
“All of this is not to say that housing wealth effects don’t exist. But their impact may be in amplifying the economic cycle, rather than being an essential driver of it. We feel that our household spending forecasts have been suitably tempered to match our view on house prices – spending growth of 3 percent to 4 percent over the year ahead is quite achievable in the early stages of a recovery, when the economy still has substantial spare capacity to be used up.”
Shamubeel Eaqub.Supplied
Simplicity chief economist Shamubeel Eaqub said there had been regions that had experienced economic growth without house price growth.
“It’s true that we are very reliant on that channel to supercharge everything … the residential property mortgage market is such a big source of capital into any kind of investments that we make. If house prices are not increasing, we just have less capital to invest. And that’s including in businesses.
“That long tail of small businesses quite often relies on borrowing against the mortgage to be able to grow their businesses. That can be one of the constraints. It absolutely doesn’t go away but does it mean we can’t have any growth without it? I don’t think so. Does it mean we might have less growth or a less rapid recovery to a more dynamic state? Very likely.”
He said there had been economic growth before house prices boomed, and some of it was very strong.
“In fact, quite a lot of the economic growth we might have had post 2000 you might argue wasn’t actually very good quality… when I look at history and I look at our regions, there are periods of history where we’ve had economic growth without house prices running away from incomes. We’ve had economic growth in our provinces that haven’t always experienced high house prices.”
He said much of the downturn had been driven by the drop in disposable income available to households as the price of essentials rose.
But there is also a whole bunch of pent up demand to do things, whether it’s to do work on your homes, to replace things, replace the car, invest in your business, whatever. People have had plans that have been postponed. Recessions tend to be less about things being killed and more about things being postponed.
“The maintenance still has to be done. The expansion will still happen if you think the customers are there. And it’s that chicken and egg. What comes first? Certainly, I think right now what we’re seeing is there’s quite a lot of growth in the provinces… we’ve had pretty good news for sheep and beef farmers as well. When was the last time that happened?
“Wool prices have been pretty good this season so far. Dairy prices plus the payout from selling off our brands businesses. There’s a fair bit of money that’s going to be floating around. I think that might act as a bit of a catalyst. And of course, that reduction in interest rates.
“The big thing that’s going to be the catalyst here, I think, is whether or not banks are out lending. That’s probably the biggest unknown… not just for the price but the quantity of credit. It’s essential debt that supercharges the cycle.”
He said even though it felt like a grinding recession, some people were doing fine.
“It’s not like everybody is experiencing this equally. I think there is a risk in thinking that’s the case. There will be some people who have been waiting to make investments. They have the resources, they have the capital. They have the plans. They might decide now is a good time to make those investments.”
Outside the central Auckland Library on Lorne Street.RNZ / Lucy Xia
A 65-year-old man has appeared in court over a serious stabbing in Auckland’s CBD on Friday night.
Police confirmed the incident occured in the area in front of the Auckland Central City Library, and a knife was recovered at the scene. One person was left with critical injuries and another seriously hurt.
Detective Senior Sergeant Ash Matthews had said emergency crews were called to Lorne Street about 10.20pm where a knife had been recovered and the man was arrested by responding staff.
The man was facing two charges of causing grievous bodily harm.
He appeared at the Auckland District Court in a blue boiler suit shortly after midday on Saturday. No pleas were entered and the man was remanded in custody.
He was granted interim name suppression.
Cordons were in place overnight in the area in front of the library entrance, but had been lifted by midday Saturday.
Police said a scene examination was conducted on Saturday morning.
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
American musician Neil Sedaka, who had a string of chart-topping hits in the 1960s and 1970s with songs like ‘Laughter in the Rain’, has died at age 86, his family said Friday.
Over a career spanning six decades, Sedaka scored three number-one hits in the United States and also wrote chart-topping songs for other artists.
“Our family is devastated by the sudden passing of our beloved husband, father and grandfather,” Sedaka’s family posted on his Facebook page, describing the late artist as a “true rock and roll legend.”
Born in New York, Sedaka’s musical career began in the late 1950s. One of his first successes was writing ‘Stupid Cupid’ for one of the era’s most popular US female vocalists, Connie Francis.
Sedaka, an accomplished pianist, became a star in his own right in the early 1960s, with pop hits including ‘Breaking Up Is Hard To Do’.
His popularity faded in the second half of the 1960s as bands like The Beatles came into fashion, but it revived in the 1970s with easy-listening favourites like ‘Laughter in the Rain’ and ‘Bad Blood’.
Sedaka’s ‘Love Will Keep Us Together’ became a number one hit for the husband-and-wife recording duo Captain & Tennille in 1975.
Sedaka had dropped out of the charts by the 1980s. He remained a showbiz fixture and kept performing even as commercial successes waned.
No cause of death was given.
– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
Got questions? RNZ has launched a new podcast,‘No Stupid Questions’, with Susan Edmunds.
We’d love to hear more of your questions about money and the economy. You can send through written questions, like these ones, but even better, you can drop us a voice memo to our email questions@rnz.co.nz
I thought NZ super was 65 percent of the average wage. Where do they get an average wage of the current rate from? Considering the minimum wage for a 40-hour week is $49,816, and Stats NZ says median weekly earnings from wages and salaries were $1380 in the June 2025 quarter, which equals $71,360, 65 percent of that equals $46,384 or $1784 a fortnight compared to NZ super of $1254.28.
NZ Super is set at a rate of 66 percent of the after-tax average ordinary time wage for couples and 40 percent for single people. But the key point to note is that it’s after-tax income. The figures you’ve quoted here are pre-tax. It is also calculated net of any ACC levies.
I was 50 years old when KiwiSaver was introduced! And at that stage the government did not suggest that we would not be able to live on the retirement benefit. I was working unpaid part-time for my former husband as a secretary/receptionist. I had two teenage children, both born in my 30s. In those days there was no paid leave for parents. One of my children is autistic and state subsidised childcare was available two mornings a week. I had to resign from my full time job and work part-time. The expectations that we all fund our retirement is unrealistic, especially for women and for people with children who are disabled. I am now nearly 70 years old. What do I do?
I’ve talked to Liz Koh at Enrich Retirement about your situation.
It’s hard to give any advice without knowing your full situation, but here are some high-level thoughts.
Your ability to access NZ Super hasn’t changed. You’re right that there is increasing talk about people not necessarily being able to rely on it into the future to the same degree, as it becomes more expensive. But any changes made won’t affect people who are already receiving it.
Koh says your biggest challenge is probably finding affordable accommodation. Depending on your situation, you might be able to get the accommodation supplement – that will rely on you having very few other assets though. It is worth checking with the Ministry of Social Development that you are getting all the assistance and support you are entitled to.
She says you could look at moving to a cheaper area, social housing or taking in some boarders for extra income.
“There’s a number of strategies for securing affordable accommodation but not all of them are palatable. It’s much cheaper to live in smaller towns and if your accommodation is secure, it is possible to live on NZ Superannuation if you are able to cut your costs right back, for example by growing vegetables, reducing power consumption, using public transport.”
You could potentially consider whether a reverse mortgage is an option, too, depending on whether you own your home.
My question is about the upcoming increase in KiwiSaver employer contribution to 3.5 percent from 1 April. Does my employer have to apply the increase if I’m already contributing more than 3.5 percent?
Yes, your employer’s contribution will need to lift to 3.5 percent from 1 April.
If people request that their rate does not increase temporarily, employers have the option of matching their lower contribution. But if the employee is contributing the higher amount, as you already are, your employer has to match it.
Dave Letele in studio with Guyon Espiner.RNZ / Cole Eastham-Farrelly
A community leader in Auckland says he is tired of telling governments how to combat youth offending.
Fewer 10- to 17-year-olds went through the youth justice system in the year to June 2025 compared to the previous year, a new Ministry of Justice report has shown.
The Youth Justice Indicators report, published on Friday, said in the year to June 2025 the rate of police action against children decreased by 22 percent, and against young people by 9 percent.
The report defines those aged 10 to 13 years old as children, and 14- to 17-year-olds as young people.
However, Pacific young people experienced an increase in police action. Pacific young people were also more likely to experience a more serious response from the justice system than other groups, the report showed.
For example, 29 percent of Pacific young people proceeded against by police appeared in court, compared with 26 percent for the total population and 38 percent of the Pacific young people who appeared in the Youth Court were remanded into custody, compared with 32 percent for the total population.
Buttabean founder Dave Letele said that was not surprising to people like him who work with youth.
“Research like this is great because it tells the truth, and it’s not telling us anything we don’t know.
“But it’s frustrating because every time these reports are released, we keep having the same conversation.”
There was obviously a correlation between the high number of Pacific youth facing material hardship and going through the youth justice system, he said.
Letele said for Pacific children, it was one in three.
“Until all governments understand that they must invest in grassroots community-led programmes, and invest in them sustainably, so they’re not having to worry about funding all the time, nothing is going to change.
“I keep saying that, they just need to listen.”
Louise Upston.RNZ / Mark Papalii
Minister for Child Poverty Reduction Louise Upston earlier this week said reducing children’s material hardship was a priority in the government’s child and youth strategy.
“Our government is taking action to reduce child poverty by fixing the basics and building the future.”
She said the just-released statistics showed no statistically significant changes in the three primary child poverty measures compared to 2023/24.
“Our government has made a number of changes to improve the lives of Kiwi families, we’ve increased the in-work tax credit, lifted the threshold for Working for Families, provided working families with tax relief, reduced inflation and introduced FamilyBoost to make childcare more affordable.
“Unemployment is the last thing to come right after a recession and that is why our government is focused on growing the economy, reducing the number of people on the jobseeker benefit and reducing the number of children in benefit dependent households.”
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
This is a moment of great peril for the small Caribbean nation of Cuba. Nothing less than its sovereignty is on the line as the US drives its knee into the neck of 10 million Cubans by means of a crushing air and sea blockade and a set of secondary sanctions designed to muscle the nations of the world into compliance to the hegemon.
The issues are not particular to Cuba; we are in the midst of a militant US that is determined to assert domination through force.
It was therefore a pleasure to spend time this week with Luis Ernesto Morejón Rodríguez, Cuba’s Ambassador to New Zealand in Wellington.
EUGENE DOYLE: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s speech in Davos received considerable attention. He said: “Middle powers must act together because if we are not at the table, we are on the menu.” Cuba has been on the US menu for decades. What would be your message to those who support Carney’s call to “come together to create a third way with impact”?
AMBASSADOR RODRIGUEZ: Cuba believes a genuine “third way” can only exist if it defends the economic sovereignty of states against coercion. For more than 60 years, our country has been subjected to a policy explicitly designed to generate material hardship in order to force political change.
The issue therefore is not ideological but systemic: no nation can claim strategic autonomy while tolerating that another punishes third countries for lawful trade. True multilateralism begins when middle-sized nations act collectively to prevent the global economy from becoming an instrument of political pressure.
How does Cuba intend to use the United Nations General Assembly — where it enjoys near-unanimous support — to challenge the legality of “secondary sanctions” that weaponise the global financial system against trade with third parties?
Cuba will continue using the General Assembly to document and expose the extraterritorial nature of these measures. Each year the discussion goes beyond a vote: evidence is presented of banks cancelling humanitarian transfers, shipping companies refusing to transport fuel, and medical suppliers withdrawing contracts due to fear of penalties.
The objective is to consolidate an international legal and political consensus that no domestic legislation should be globally imposed or obstruct legitimate trade among sovereign states. The process is cumulative — it builds legitimacy and normative pressure over time.
In what other ways will Cuba navigate this latest campaign of maximum pressure by the United States? What support will it seek?
Historically Cuba responds through a combination of internal resilience and external cooperation: diversifying energy and trade partners, strengthening South-South relations, and promoting alternative financial arrangements. At the same time, priority is given to protecting essential social sectors.
Cuba does not seek geopolitical confrontation but economic normality — the ability to purchase food, fuel, spare parts or medicines without third parties being penalized. The support we request is straightforward: respect for our right to trade.
Many people do not follow international news closely. Could you describe life in Cuba today and how the population and government are responding to what must be a severe economic crisis and the threat of US pressure?
Daily life is marked by material scarcity linked to severe financial and energy restrictions. Limited access to fuel can lead to extended power outages; families organise cooking around electricity availability and neighbours share refrigeration space to prevent food spoilage. Hospitals maintain essential services using constrained backup power systems.
Despite this, the state preserves universal health and education, and communities rely heavily on solidarity networks. It is less a conventional economic cycle than a society operating under continuous external pressure.
For an audience in Wellington that might interpret this as a “political dispute”, what does “maximum pressure” mean for a Cuban mother trying to feed her children, or for a doctor performing surgery during a 20-hour blackout?
Maximum pressure is experienced through ordinary situations: planning daily meals around electricity schedules, transporting patients when fuel for ambulances is scarce, or sterilising medical instruments under limited power conditions.
These are not political slogans but cumulative consequences of restrictions that prevent the country from freely purchasing fuel, spare parts or financing. Administrative decisions taken abroad translate into domestic difficulties at home.
In the West we often speak about international law but do not always apply it to ourselves. What is your message to those who want to live in a world governed by law rather than force?
Cuba asks for legal consistency: if international trade is rule-based, no country should be penalised for lawful commerce. We also recognise and appreciate New Zealand’s consistent favourable vote in the United Nations General Assembly in support of the resolution entitled “Necessity of ending the economic, commercial and financial embargo imposed by the United States of America against Cuba.”
That position reflects a principled commitment to multilateralism. In this context, we have encouraged New Zealand to continue upholding its traditional opposition to unilateral coercive measures and to the extraterritorial application of national laws. Silence regarding such sanctions weakens the very legal principles that protect all small states alike. The issue extends beyond bilateral relations — it concerns the integrity of international law itself.
What is your life like as a diplomat in New Zealand? How is your contact with government officials and the diplomatic community?
Diplomatic work in New Zealand takes place in a serious institutional environment where dialogue exists even amid disagreement. Our exchanges with officials are respectful and professional; positions may differ, but there is willingness to listen and understand context.
Much of our work here is explanatory rather than confrontational: clarifying that the Cuban situation is not merely a bilateral dispute but part of a broader debate about how the international order functions. The diplomatic community in Wellington is active and collegial, allowing frank discussions on global issues such as climate change, development and multilateralism.
The US objective is explicitly described as regime change through economic collapse. If Cuba yielded to these demands, what would the Global South lose?
A crucial precedent would be lost: that a nation can choose its political system without external tutelage. If prolonged economic strangulation succeeded in imposing internal change, it would legitimise a model of intervention applicable to any developing country.
It would no longer be necessary to negotiate with societies — sustained financial pressure would suffice. The Global South would see its effective autonomy reduced.
What is your vision for Cuba? Where would you like it to be in 10 or 20 years?
The aspiration is a fully normalised Cuba within the global economy — able to access financing, trade, and technology without restrictions — while preserving universal social policies in health, education, and equity. Change will continue, but it should occur by national decision, not external pressure.
In 20 years we hope Cuba will be known less for conflict with a major power and more for contributions in medical cooperation, biotechnology innovation, cultural exchange, and regional development. The ultimate goal is not perpetual resistance, but the freedom to choose its own path.
Eugene Doyle is a community organiser and independent writer based in Wellington, publisher of Solidarity and contributor to Asia Pacific Report. His first demonstration was at the age of 12 against the Vietnam war. This article was first published by Solidarity on 26 February 2024.
He claimed 80 percent of surveyed staff at Auckland’s Middlemore Emergency Department said it improved productivity or efficiency.
While 84 percent said it had a positive impact on their overall experience and wellbeing during a shift.
“This places New Zealand among the fastest health systems in the world to move from pilot to nationwide frontline AI use in emergency departments, helping clinicians spend more time with patients and less time on paperwork,” Brown said.
“AI will never replace clinical skill or judgement, but it will play an increasingly important role in supporting frontline healthcare staff and helping patients access care faster and more efficiently, now and into the future.
“We will continue investing in digital technology that puts patients at the centre of the healthcare system, improving access to care, and delivering better health outcomes for New Zealanders.”
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
Khawat, a sisterhood for ethnic women, hosting a run club.SUPPLIED
From watching homelands burn on social media to being stuck between cultures, there is one migrant community facing some of the worst mental health.
Middle Eastern, Latin American and African (MELAA) young people are an ethnic minority reporting unique challenges.
Having to navigate trauma, mixed identities and many other potential obstacles, some young people are also saying there is a gap in culturally sensitive mental health support.
In December 2024 the Ministry of Ethnic Communities released its ethnic evidence summary. As part of its findings, it stated that while most ethnic communities faced mental health challenges, MELAA people were reporting lower overall wellbeing with more than one third of the youth having seriously considered attempting suicide.
As heartbreaking as the statistic was, it had not come as a shock to some in the community.
Carrying the trauma
Fatima Sanussi is a refugee and the founder of ‘Do You Still Dream?’, a creative platform for migrants and refugees.
She said she was not surprised that MELAA youth were reporting such low mental health.
“During this time where you can see what’s happening in Palestine, you can see what’s happening in Congo, you see what’s happening in Sudan, we have communities here that are impacted … that carry these narratives.”
Community advocate Fatima SanussiSUPPLIED
Originally from Sudan and Ethiopia, Sanussi was a year and a half when she resettled to South Auckland with her family.
She said a significant portion of the MELAA community were in Aotearoa due to forced displacement, and they did not always receive enough support.
Many of the youth Sanussi had grown up with in Otahuhu had left a brutal conflict.
“That type of trauma was not addressed, the trauma that they carried from the conflict.”
Community advocate Fatima SanussiSUPPLIED
Her own mental health had suffered because of the war in Sudan, especially with the exposure on social media.
“I watched my homeland be destroyed, a tremendous amount of death, displacement as well as the loss of my own and the worry of my family being in a war zone.”
At 28, Sanussi was still navigating her own mental health journey, recalling the first time she went to therapy following the passing of her father.
“It was hard to speak to the therapist, I remember I was about 14 or 15 and I felt like she couldn’t understand me,” Sanussi said.
She felt there was no cultural awareness in the process with little understanding for her struggles as a young ethnic person and the experience discouraged her from seeking help until recently.
It was only last year, more than a decade later, that Sanussi decided to give it another go after feeling the impact of the war in Sudan.
Stuck in the ‘in-between’
Eman Ghandour, an AUT career advisor and founder of Khawat, a network for ethnic women, said the poor mental health for MELAA youth was due to many layered factors.
Eman GhandourSUPPLIED
Originally from Jordan, Ghandour said she had struggled with depression for many years and one of the main reasons was a flickering sense of belonging.
She identified as a 1.5 generation migrant, a term for migrants who moved from their country of origin during their childhoods.
Lost between the culture they were born with and the culture they were trying to adopt, she said young migrants could struggle with their identity.
“I always say to my parents you’ve never doubted that you were Arab right, you’ve never doubted that you’re a Muslim… but for us we’ve always tapped in and out of that.
“One of the biggest barriers for mental health is actually that in-between feeling.”
Khawat, a sisterhood for ethnic women, hosting a run club.SUPPLIED
Although most migrants can experience this feeling, MELAA youth are considered a minority within a minority, making up only 3 percent of the population.
The ethnic summaries report had also stated that MELAA people could face employment barriers “on a similar scale as Māori and Pacific peoples”, although the types of barriers were not necessarily the same.
Ghandour pressed the point that mental health was holistic and was linked to things like employment and education for young people.
As a career consultant, Ghandour said there was a high expectation for second generation immigrants to achieve employment and get into industries with the same ease as non-migrants.
However, this was often not the case, even with the many migrants who graduated with top grades.
“They don’t have an in, they don’t understand the recruitment process they don’t see themselves like they belong to a certain workplace so there’s massive barriers of even getting through the door.”
Some of the young women from Khawat, a community for ethnic wahine, at a gym session.SUPPLIED
What do the stats say and what’s next?
The ethnic summaries report was the first of its kind in identifying how ethnic communities were doing across a range of sectors including mental health.
It had also highlighted that being a female, having a sexual or gender minority status were also some of the factors associated with higher suicidal and self-harming behaviour amongst MELAA youth.
Ministry of Ethnic Communities deputy chief executive Pratima Namasivayam said the statistics for MELAA youth mental health were concerning and the group was now one of the ministry’s priorities.
“It was the first time when we brought together Ethnic Evidence, we went, ‘Oh my God look at this particular finding for MELAA youth’.”
The Ministry of Ethnic Communities deputy chief executive Pratima Namasivayam.SUPPLIED
While young migrants contributed strongly to their communities’, factors like racism in schools, biases in workplaces, non-recognition of overseas qualification and trauma were still contributing to low mental health.
The report stated that for Asian and MELAA young people in particular, racial discrimination at school and low family support were “risk factors for self-harm”, however, high cultural self-esteem was a “protective factor”.
In 2023, the ministry worked with the Education Review Office to release a report which showed racism and ethnicity-based bullying in schools remain prevalent.
Namasivayam said nearly one in five MELAA learners had reported feeling that they did not belong and one in three reported loneliness, this was just one of the factors explaining the poor mental health statistics.
“We’re now doing a deep dive into it because we want to really understand what’s happening.”
Namasivayam said MELAA youth were now a top priority when it came to improving mental health for ethnic communities.
She said some positive movements had resulted from the findings of the report such as the Auckland, Kuwaiti community hosting a wellbeing event for young women.
Having spoken to the Ministry of Health, a search into MELAA youth mental health was now part of the New Zealand Suicide Prevention Action Plan.
However, there was still work to be done and Namasivayam said the ministry was now focused on communicating with existing youth groups and service providers to further its knowledge of an underrepresented group.
“We’re thinking that what would be really good is we go and talk to existing youth groups, to talk about mental health, rather than doing a wide general community consultation.”
Ghandour said there was a need for a more holistic approach, that looked at improving physical and mental health while empowering communities and giving them shared spaces.
“If you have a really good sense of identity and understanding your whakapapa, who you are, your migration story … you have a better career outcome, you have better confidence”
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
Keith Rankin, trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.
Analysis by Keith Rankin, 27 February 2026.
Keith Rankin, trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.
I heard this on RNZ News 11am 12 Feb 2026:
“The government’s finances are in better shape than expected due to lower [government] spending and a higher tax take. Treasury figures … show a deficit of $5.2b for the six months ended December, almost $1.6b below the half-year forecast. The tax take was $138m higher, while expenses were about $1b lower, because of lower spending on core government services: health, housing programmes, and the cost of carbon units. Net debt was slightly lower than expected, at 43.5% of the value of the economy.”
It was framed as good news, or at least as “better” news: government spending less than expected (despite the many dire needs for more, better funded, government-funded services and infrastructure) and a higher tax take (despite the needs of many people to have more spendable dollars).
I mention this quote from economic historian Adam Tooze, from his 2018 book Crashed, re the downward spiral that arises from policies of fiscal consolidation.
“Not only was [Greece, in 2010] slow to push through the changes the Troika demanded, but when it did the results were counterproductive; in a classic Keynesian downward spiral, demand fell and unemployment surged further, reducing incomes.”
We note that when private incomes are reduced, then income tax receipts are also reduced, meaning government income is reduced. (In idiomatic vernacular, this is known as cutting your nose to spite your face. “The idiom is often used in political and economic commentary to describe actions by a political actor, party, corporation or nation that appear to damage the actor’s own interests”.)
New Zealand is lucky at the moment in that it is benefitting from record high terms of trade – external stimulus, a commodity-led export-led boom – which is to some extent offsetting the fiscal doom loop that Tooze describes.
What will happen when those record-high export receipts fall-off? Tooze tells us: “a classic Keynesian downward spiral”.
Note that Greece was doing these policies, not out of political free-choice but because the EU Troika demanded that Greece follow this counterproductive policy path. At least Greece resisted, conferring upon itself some dignity.
New Zealand is today implementing similar policies; partly because the government is nominally free to choose, but also because it is heavily influenced by the false narratives peddled by another powerful Troika: the New York troika of Standard and Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch. New Zealand governments would rather lose elections than get on the wrong side of these big three.
Democracy or empire?
*******
Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.
Keith Rankin, trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.
Essay by Keith Rankin, 25 February 2026.
Over the last few days, there has been plenty of media chatter in relation to the government’s proposal to pass a law enabling police to forcibly shift street dwellers from Auckland’s CBD. (Refer ‘Move On’ orders penalise those with the least, Scoop 22 Feb 2026.)
Keith Rankin, trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.
While Labour likes to express outrage, neither Labour nor National have given as much as a hint as to a solution they would commit to implementing. National sees street vagrants in much the same way as the Israeli government sees Palestinians; in both cases, they just want the ‘problem people’ to go away.
New Zealand, like most countries, has a long history of vagrancy, and of mean-spirited laws to deal with it. New Zealand, however, in 1938 introduced a universal welfare state; a political contract which gained broad bipartisan support until 1984. Over the 1938 to 1984 period the vagrancy problem was minimal. I remember being shocked at seeing beggars in Ireland in 1976; that was depression-era optics, which I thought had long passed in the developed world.
The most recent time I ventured out of Australasia was in 2019, on a trip to Canada, Scotland, and London. I remember remarking that Vancouver seemed to have fewer homeless people than Auckland. The next day I changed my mind; I discovered that the problem in Vancouver was more on the edge of the CBD, whereas in Auckland it had already become normalised around Queen Street and the city’s main library. I note this point, because the problem cannot be blamed on the Covid19 pandemic, and it was a problem that neither Labour’s Jacinda Ardern nor Phil Goff were willing to prioritise during their terms in office (as Prime Minister, and as Mayor).
(In Scotland, while Aberdeen did have a problem, it was less obvious than in Auckland; and even less obvious in Edinburgh. In London, I stayed in Stepney Green, a social housing area close to Whitechapel, and did not particularly sense a ‘street dweller problem’ there; nor in closer-to-the-City and now-gentrified Spitalfields.)
The current chatter focuses on homelessness, while only noticing in passing that many street occupiers are also beggars; meaning that, at its core, the problem is one of income insecurity.
Hardly anyone has connected the dots between begging and the regression of social security in New Zealand. The universal welfare state has lost its way since 1984. My sense is that many of today’s vagrants are not receiving any social security money; and that that may be in large part because it is too difficult – and humiliating – for them to deal with a Kafkaesque system that calls beneficiaries ‘jobseekers’, and is forever looking for ways to not support vulnerable people into constructive engagement. While the general public would regard vagrants as being unemployed, Statistics New Zealand does not even count them as unemployed. Our governmental systems are oriented around the ‘labour force’, and are largely blind to working-age people ‘not in the labour force’.
It is not my role here to analyse the way that our untweaked version of capitalism creates vagrancy. Rather, it is to note that our vagrants need these three things: an amount of unconditional income, a place better than the street where they can sleep and wash, and something fulfilling – maybe, even, productive – to do.
While, for the rest of this essay I’ll focus on the former, I’ll just mention the latter briefly. Minimum wage laws put most of these people out of the reach of the formal labour market. That leaves them two choices for something societally connected to do; voluntary work, or petit-entrepreneurship (aka non-criminal hustling). (Two other options, both disconnected from mainstream society, are: ‘hanging out’ in ways that intimidate, or participating in underworld crime.)
A Very Basic Universal Income (VBUI)
As our income-tax scale stands at present, a Very Basic Universal Income of $150 – payable to every tax-resident aged over 18 – could be mostly funded by abandoning the 10.5% and 17.5% tax rates. All annual personal income below $78,100 would be subject to a 30% tax rate.
Non-beneficiaries earning less than $53,500 would gain, because their VBUI would be more than their extra tax. (For these people in fulltime work, the gain would be small; $12 per week for a minimum wage worker working 40 hours per week; $16 per week gain for a minimum wage worker working 37½ hours per week.)
In technical economists’ language, the VBUI would be called a ‘refundable tax credit’, or maybe a ‘demogrant’.
People earning more than $53,500 per year – and beneficiaries – would have an unchanged net income situation. (For beneficiaries, the first $150 of their benefits would become universal; an accounting change only, from a costing point-of-view.)
People on benefits would have the first $150 per week of their benefit recategorised. People losing their jobs would continue to receive their VBUI, unconditionally. People not in the labour force would have their VBUI payments made directly, and there would be an opt-out mechanism; not an opt-in.
The biggest gains come to non-beneficiaries aged over 18 defined in the official statistics as either ‘underemployed’, ‘part-time’, or ‘not in the labour force’. The most important gains are that the $150pw VBUI constitutes an unconditional safety-bridge for those in danger of becoming redundant, or of having their hours reduced to part-time; and that it thus acts as an ‘automatic stabiliser’, meaning that people who lose their incomes can still maintain some of their usual spending.
The VBUI also means that people who gain work, or who gain extra work, still get to keep all of their Very Basic Universal Income. There is no income or poverty trap (as there is now), whereby gains in income from a new source lead to reductions in income from existing sources.
And it also substantially reduces the cost of administering social security, if people who lose their jobs automatically retain a very basic income to help tide them over losses in market income. The only information needed about non-beneficiaries in New Zealand would be their date and place of birth, their bank account number, and their immigration status. People receiving no publicly-sourced income other than a VBUI would at no stage be required to provide the authorities with any further information; they would pay tax at the going rate to the IRD based on market income connected to their IRD number.
Very Basic Universal Income is an ‘opt-out’ mechanism, which means that everyone receives it unless they have specifically asked to not receive it. And, even then, opt-outs should be managed as ‘temporary’. (All people legally allowed to earn income in New Zealand would have at least an IRD or NHI [Health NZ] number; ‘bank accounts’ at Kiwibank could be opened by Inland Revenue or Health New Zealand for people without other known access to banking facilities.)
In addition to reduced administration costs, there are several other ways that a miserly government could recoup its not-very-onerous outlays on VBUI. The two most obvious ways would be to raise the company tax rate from 28% to 30%, and to reduce the income threshold for the 39% tax down from $180,000 per year. A centre-right government which has done all these things – all very much consistent with centre-right philosophy – might then aspire to removing the 33% tax rate. That would leave a two-step tax scale: 30% and 39%.
We note that the introduction of a VBUI would, in itself, mean only one change to the existing benefit structure. That one change would be the accounting formality to categorise the first $150 per week of a benefit as a universal income, as a ‘duty-of-care’ income integrated into both the tax system and the benefit system.
A VBUI is not generous, and it’s not a Universal Basic Income (UBI). But it does act as an income that acknowledges both human rights and economic efficiency. Once the mechanism and mindset are in place – noting that the ‘mindset’ issue is analogous with that associated with the introduction of proportional-representation voting in New Zealand in the 1990s – then it becomes comparatively easy to tweak the numbers. In time, the VBUI might become a BUI, a Basic Universal Income; more like $250pw than $150pw. We need to start at a low amount, to sooth the apprehensions of the professional naysayers; those unimaginative people too ready to block social and economic progress.
A Teenage Basic Universal Income (TBUI) for adolescents
Late in 1979, Robert Muldoon raised the universal family benefit to $6 per week – a benefit (which commenced in 1946) payable on behalf of all children without any means testing. If we adjust that $6 by the CPI changes we get an equivalent of $42 today. Or if we adjust by GDP per capita – a better measure than the CPI, a measure which allows for economic growth – that $6 in late 1979 becomes $70 today.
My proposal is to pay a TBUI of either $42 or $70, to all New Zealanders aged from 14 to 17. For many of these teenage recipients, the amount would be paid directly to the recipient, and deducted from the Family Tax Credit payment presently paid to their caregivers.
I have calculated that recipients of a $42 (or even $45) TBUI should face a special flat tax rate of no more than 20% of their market income. And recipients of a $70 TBUI should face a special flat tax rate of no more than 23% of their market income. I favour fourteen- and fifteen-year-olds – all still legally at school – to receive the $42; and sixteen- and seventeen-year-olds to receive the $70 and pay a bit more tax.
The TBUI acknowledges that a significant minority of New Zealand’s vagrant population is in the 14 to under-18 age range. They would receive payments in the same way as older vagrants; if necessary, through an account opened for them by the IRD or Health NZ.
Call it ‘pocket money’, if you like. All New Zealand residents would receive this from when they turn 14, unless they opt-out. Fourteen is the age, in New Zealand, when children may be legally left-alone, unsupervised. Thus, it is the first age to directly signal that a young person should have a degree of independence, of economic autonomy.
Finally
All of the payments I have suggested are very basic and somewhat stingy. What matters is that they are unconditional, and confer a sense of citizenship onto our most vulnerable adults and semi-adults. There are no poverty traps; no impediments to recipients from ‘bettering themselves’, from being aspirational. Universal Incomes are not withheld when persons’ circumstances improve.
I personally would prefer less parsimonious payments; deficit-funded payments which would give an underdone economy a necessary bit of stimulus, realising that the arising increase in collective prosperity itself recoups such fiscal deficits. (The 1938 introduction of Universal Superannuation and other reforms turned out to have a fiscal cost significantly less than the projected costs. Refer Elizabeth Hanson’s 1980 book: The Politics of Social Security…) I note that we live in austere times; without really knowing the reason for these fiscal blindspots. Nevertheless, I am suggesting that, even with Scrooge in charge, we can do much better than we do today.
Further, with these universal incomes in place, everyone will know that everyone else will know that all of our vagrant population is in receipt of at least some income. (Refer Steven Pinker’s 2025 book: When Everyone Knows That Everyone Knows…) As it is, some of the beggars on the streets may be receiving substantial benefits, while others are receiving absolutely nothing; today we, in the public, are unable to tell any individual vagrant’s actual level of need.
There are solutions to these ‘all-rhetoric no-solution’ difficulties. It just takes the political will to see past our blindspots. Some form of rights-based universal income guarantee is a necessary but not a sufficient solution to the compounding vagrancy problem; and to other problems too, especially those problems affecting young people. (Note: Youth facing more psychological distress…, RNZ, 25 Feb 2026.)
Note on the Politics of Achievement
When Michael Joseph Savage in 1938 proposed (and then legislated for) a universal welfare state – with special emphasis on an initially very basic Universal Superannuation – he converted what could have been a political losing hand in that election year into New Zealand’s greatest ever electoral victory. There were many on the left and on the right of Savage’s parliamentary caucus – political people without political nous – who seemed to be eager to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Fortuitously, Savage was not one of them. By not being one of them, by not losing courage, he became the New Zealander of the twentieth century. Savage didn’t solve every problem. But he did make a difference, for the better; and was loved for that. While a modest man himself, his political leadership for New Zealand was far from austere.
Do our current lot of politicians even want to win in November? My advice to both National and Labour is to pursue the politics of success, and not the politics of nihilism.
(In this regard we might note that the Labour Opposition in 1931 suffered an ignominious election defeat, despite the appalling economic catastrophe which was then taking place. Labour went on to win in 1935, by promising a universal welfare state. It came close to electoral embarrassment in 1938; it came close to failing to deliver on its 1935 promise.)
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Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.
Keith Rankin, trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.
Essay by Keith Rankin, 20 February 2026.
Imagine if the Olympic Games were currently being held in Wuhan, China. There would be widespread mentionings of it having been the starting place of the Covid19 pandemic, in December 2019.
Keith Rankin, trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.
But pandemics (not ‘global pandemics’; pandemics are global by definition, as are world wars) have two places of origin, though those two places could be the one-and-the-same. For Covid19, Wuhan was certainly the first place; the root source, to use a tree analogy. The second source is the base of the stem, the place from where a pandemic fans out and becomes almost unstoppable.
In the case of Covid19, the events in February 2020 in Milan and Cortina d’Ampezzo – the jewel of the Italian Alps – were the origins of the pandemic. Without their role, Covid19 might have been a contained epidemic such as SARS (2003).
Since the near-run-disaster that was the SARS-Cov1 panic in 2003, the amount of useful epidemiological work on coronaviruses has been minimal. There was clearly research work being done, including in Wuhan. But that was mainly on the zoonotic origins of coronaviruses, and not on the administration of outbreaks. SARS-Cov1 was a severe novel coronavirus. Novel respiratory viruses – such as the 1918 influenza pandemic – are lethal, spread fast, and are hard to contain. More lethal than Sars-Cov1 was MERS which emerged around 2012. Yet preparations for a respiratory-illness pandemic were focussed almost entirely on a new strain of influenza. No prep for a new novel coronavirus. SARS-Cov2 was ‘tricky’, in that – less lethal but more transmissible than SARS-Cov1 – it fell on the cusp between being dangerously lethal and dangerously transmissible.
Geographic Analysis
The pandemic events of 2020 were not – at least not in any popular awareness – subjected to a proper geographical analysis. Most of the initial outbreaks of the SARS-Cov2 virus which escaped China were largely contained. There were relatively small outbreaks in Japan, Hong Kong, Australia and Seattle in the United States’ northwest; in some cases transmitted by passengers from a few cruise ships. And larger but still largely contained outbreaks in South Korea and in Iran. These outbreaks came directly from China. The containment of the Iran outbreak was facilitated by the West’s generally hostile attitude towards that country as a geopolitical ‘bad guy’; Iran was easier than most countries for the West to quarantine.
More problematic were the outbreaks in Spain and Italy, which can also be traced back to January 2020. In Spain the initial outbreak, direct from China, was more in the south; most likely linked to escapees from China. There was relatively little subsequent movement across the land border into France, though Andorra experienced a separate outbreak. The main risk from the south of Spain was the United Kingdom, given that, for many British people, southern Spain is either their first or second home. It would have been relatively easy to quarantine British arrivals from Spain; the British authorities ‘dropped a ball’ by being tardy here.
The main blind spot was that Spain is a western country, and westerners had become ingrained in the supposition that pandemics (and all things bad) come from other countries; or, more accurately phrased, ‘countries of others’. Guard rails that were up for China or Iran or even Japan and South Korea, were not there for ‘threats’ from West European countries.
The notion came about that the pandemic radiated out of southern China, rather than having flowed out of all of the places which had experienced outbreaks. When eyes should have been watching Spain and Italy, they were still firmly focused on China, and in a finger-pointing way.
The West could have learned much from China’s data about the impact of the new virus in terms of the demographics of victims and non-victims, and the extent and duration of their exposures and their symptoms. However, the western countries were more predisposed to put up the shutters with respect to that amazing country.
A large part of the problem in the 1918 influenza pandemic was the high numbers of younger adults who caught it and died from it. Covid19 was never like that. Data from China showed that few younger people had died from Covid19; unless, that is, they had had sustained exposures. For younger people, and for society as a whole, it was better for otherwise healthy non-allergic people to have early and tentative exposures to Covid than to be on tenterhooks awaiting what became the inevitable, and would become worse the longer the wait.
Milano-Cortina
More problematic than Spain was the coronavirus outbreak around and to the east of Milan – the ‘tech’ centre of Italy, and the fashion centre – and the connection of Milan to the ski resorts during the peak of the ski season; indeed during the February school holidays in Europe. Milan is the most monied city in Italy. It is an important entry-point for affluent techies on business, and for sundry one-percenters. Once the epidemic began in Wuhan, many of the monied of and around Wuhan (many were foreign nationals) had the nous to ‘escape’ – including to Macao and Hong Kong – before the Chinese central government closed the ‘stable doors’.
Milan and environs became a hotspot for witting and unwitting coronavirus refugees – affluent exiteers – just at the time Europe’s ten-percenters were heading to and from the ski resorts.
Further, there was the World Economic Forum, at Davos, Switzerland; a one-percenter retreat. A few of the delegates may have, unknowingly, arrived with Covid. Following the Forum, many delegates – coming straight from a transmissible environment – will have visited the other hotspots for the rich and famous; the other alpine resorts, and the principalities Monaco, Liechtenstein, Andorra. And San Marino, which is a centre for the world’s semi-licit arms trade. All of these places had significant outbreaks of Covid19 during February and March 2020. These were perfect environments for the rapid spread of SARS-like coronaviruses. While coronaviruses are not winter viruses as such – compared to other cold and influenza viruses – they nevertheless thrive in winter when not obstructed by those other winter pathogens.
Essentially the most significant locations for amplifying Covid19 were greater-Milan, the Italian skifields centred on Cortina and Livigno; though Torino in the northwest – host of the 2006 Games – probably experienced its share of the unchecked Italian Covid19 flow. From these places it spread to neighbouring countries: Austria, Switzerland, France, and Bavaria in Germany.
Who else was there at those resorts? The managerial class – the bureaucrat and technocrat nine-percenters of the most affluent cities of northwest Europe, especially those cities hosting international (Geneva, Brussels, Luxembourg and Strasbourg) and national (eg Stockholm for one; and Paris and Berlin of course) governance organisations – were there with their older children. Fly-in, fly-out; a week’s break from the office with the family. In many cases parents on their own with the children while their spouses and ex-spouses enjoyed time apart from their children; elite parents and teenagers who would take the opportunities to socialise during the long après-ski evenings. They would mostly be back in their home countries by the first week of March.
Visitors from the Americas – from those same socio-business milieux – would have also been in these resorts at that time, and also in the capital cities of western Europe.
Covid19 didn’t stream into New York from China or from Seattle. It streamed in from the affluent centres of and close to alpine Europe, and from the business and political capitals of northwest Europe. Covid19 came into the Americas directly or indirectly from Italy to a much greater extent than it came from anywhere else.
Missing Maps
What was needed was good flow maps, much like those devised by John Snow, in London around 1850, to chart the cholera epidemics of 1849 and 1854. Instead, the statistics most available were nationally-compiled accumulations of cases and deaths; not international flow maps showing the sequences as Covid19 moved from some places and then on to other places. Individual countries were making their own imperfect maps, with their own make-believe boundary walls. In reality these European borders were for administrative purposes only. Herein lay the problem of visualising the flows of infection; unjoined maps. Further, these case-maps were often unadjusted for the population sizes of each country or province; many maps simply showed that there were cases where there were more people.
For flow maps, you must remove the dots which represent cases resolved by time or, for a small minority of cases, by death. And you must provide per capita data.
These administrators literally failed to join the dots between their own patches and their neighbours’ patches. A glance at any Europe-wide case-map would have shown, by April 2020, a large cluster of cases from Geneva north towards Strasbourg and Luxembourg, and then west towards Maastricht and Brussels; this cluster straddled six separate national borders. (Seven countries if you include Italy, which is close to Geneva.) The conclusions from such a map would have been as obvious as those revealed by John Snow’s case-map of Soho (London) during the 1854 cholera outbreak there.
In early 2020, it was senior public servants, their families including their elderly parents, their staff, and the people they had meetings (and eatings) with who had been most effectively spreading and succumbing to the virus.
First and Second Waves
By July 2020, the Covid19 outbreak was largely contained in Europe. But at a cost, not only in terms of disrupted income-earning opportunities to the small-medium businesses personnel who contracted the virus from the holidaying returnees and who were most disrupted by stay-at-home orders. And also, the latent cost of the first wave included the loss of those many natural immunisations that commuters in large cities experience most days of their working lives; especially cities with international airports.
Thus, the countries which had experienced multi-month shutdowns rebuffed the pandemic virus at a significant hidden cost; a weakening of the immunity of the population, increasing the susceptibility of the so-far uninfected to a new wave of respiratory contagion. Populations in urban centres – historically, and especially immigrants to those cities from the provinces – have always been vulnerable to transmissible diseases. By August 2020 this was especially so, especially in those countries in Eastern Europe (with older and poorer populations) which had been minimally exposed to both the first wave of Covid19 and the other pathogens they would normally have come into frequent contact with.
While the pandemic was contained in Europe by July 2020, it was far from contained in the United States. In the United States, the covid curve was flattened, but at a high plateau. The downside of flattening-the-curve is that you get an extended curve, creating a pathogen reservoir for a second wave of infections.
The Grand Tour and the second wave of Covid19
In the eighteenth century, a time of very high economic inequality in the British Isles and other parts of Europe, a tradition developed among the sons of the then one-percenters to do a Grand Tour. For a few, that tour was somewhat intrepid; Joseph Banks did his grand tour on the Endeavour with James Cook. Lord Byron was another, whose tour was somewhat intrepid and was never completed.
For the majority of these entitled young men, there was a tourist trail that developed; the grand tour became a kind of hedonist pilgrimage. Principal stops included Paris, the Rhine lands (including Heidelburg) and Switzerland. Some of these early bohemian tourists headed directly from Switzerland to Italy; others ventured into Austria (especially Vienna) and the Bohemian capital of Prague.
In Italy there were several must-visit cities, including Milan, Venice, Florence, Rome and Naples. The homeward journey likely included Sicily, southern France and places in Spain and Portugal.
Some grand tourists would also visit the ‘Near East’, the areas – including the Holy Land – defined by the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean Seas.
The twenty-first (and late twentieth century) version of the grand tour is undertaken by the sons and daughters of American ten-percenters. In the United States in particular, working-life career-building requirements and surprisingly little annual leave strongly encourage this somewhat-elitist comparator to New Zealand’s OE. Young Americans have much less time than young Europeans to travel as tourists during their working lives.
In the modern Grand Tour, which lasts from mid-July to mid-September, young university-educated Americans with both left-elite (nine-percenter) and right-elite (one-percenter) backgrounds descend upon Europe. In 2020, this timing coincided with the re-opening of Europe after what the Europeans optimistically presumed was the end of the Covid19 pandemic. Further, European tourist hotspots were keen to welcome new waves of spending visitors, to help with their economic recoveries.
The second wave of the Covid19 pandemic began in August 2020, though this was not fully apparent until late September. The second wave was much more lethal than the first, and especially in Eastern Europe, where the (generally older) populations had largely escaped the first wave, but were particularly immunity-compromised as a result of the stay-at-home orders during the pandemic’s first wave.
The second wave began in places like Amsterdam, Paris, Barcelona, Switzerland, Czechia (especially Prague). And in Israel, another popular destination for American grand tourists. It was the American Grand Tour which brought the pandemic back to Europe, and with a vengeance; and which in turn instigated the further lethal waves of Covid19 around the world in 2021.
Unfortunately, thanks to inadequate specific-location-mapping and flow-mapping of the abundant Covid19 statistics, this flow of infections was only apparent to those who looked under the bonnet. By then, the national Wikipedia sites for Covid19 had lost their energy, showing increasingly outdated maps, and misplaced emphases on first-entry cases during the first wave. The accessible information was either too technical or too stale.
Popular Lore
In popular lore, the Covid19 pandemic was essentially a 2020 phenomenon. TV dramas and documentaries still emphasise that early period of the global crisis.
It was from the lethal second wave that the nasty new variants evolved, in 2021; and spread into and then from India, as the most spectacular example. Remember the Greek Alphabet soup, with the (British) Alpha and (Indian) Delta variants having been especially problematic.
The older Swedish scientists who emphasised the need to take a path – a path which accentuated the need for natural immunity to facilitate an early and complete end to the pandemic’s most dangerous phase – were proved correct as the pandemic raged through its most serious phase in 2021. Though you wouldn’t know it, probably too many interests did not want to make comparisons. Sweden’s politicians had been too slow to address the Stockholm outbreak in early 2020, when that country had an especially vulnerable elderly population; so, it looked as if the world had little to learn from that country. (Sweden had had significantly less influenza than most other countries, in 2018 and 2019; meaning that Sweden had unusually low death rates in the winters of those two years; meaning that they had plenty of ‘fuel’ for a tragic pandemic ‘fire’ in the spring of 2020.)
2021 also became the year of the Covid19 vaccine race; whereas 2020 had been the year of the missing PPE. The public health industry tends to place too much emphasis on immunisation through intervention versus immunisation through monitored natural exposures. This emphasis is valid for the most lethal of infectious conditions; the conditions for which we routinely vaccinate today. But for the below the radar circumstances of categories of common respiratory viruses with high complexity and low lethality – including known circulating viruses such as RSV, coronaviruses (the descendants of previous lethal coronaviruses), rhinoviruses, and influenzas –medicalised immunisations came to be emphasised while, with little awareness, simultaneous processes were lessening immunity to these types of virus. It was like taking one step forward and two steps back.
In the end, the pandemic was resolved through a natural immunisation process. 2022 was the year of Omicron. In 2022 the non-lethal Covid-Omicron variant ‘ripped through’ New Zealand and other places with previous minimal coronavirus exposure. This was a direct result of the failure and subsequent redundancy of the border-quarantine and other barrier methods of protection which were still in force in January 2022. Most New Zealand residents were exposed to covid that year.
Omicron had evolved in southern Africa in late 2021, from the earliest strain of Sars-Cov2. It became a natural immunisation force. Omicron was the invisible cavalry coming to the rescue; favoured in evolutionary terms over the Delta nemesis because it was more highly transmissible while being much less lethal than the previous covid varieties. More like the familiar but under-studied ‘common cold’ coronaviruses. Omicron stopped Delta dead in its tracks; a more effective weapon than the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.
Lessons
I don’t think that western society has learned very much from the Covid19 pandemic. The importance of good mapwork and monitored natural immunisation barely formed any part of the long but largely useless narrative. Sweden’s alternative scientific path was forgotten, or derided, rather than learned from.
The next pandemic will probably also catch us unawares. It will be as different from the contemporary preoccupations of epidemiology, as Covid19 was. It may already be ‘hiding in plain sight’, as the coronavirus threat was in the 2010s. Family doctors should be routinely testing for all the various ‘bugs’ out there, and passing-on data about the various pathogens and cross-immunities which keep us healthy in daily life. We could perhaps have knocked out Covid19 in its early stages, by facilitating natural exposures of healthy people to low doses of already-circulating non-covid coronaviruses.
I think that future government-overreach mandates around lockdowns and mask-wearing will be hard to enforce, given the huge rightwards shifts in western politics this decade. But there may be opportunities for short smart protective measures, undertaken at local levels and in places such as retirement villages and rest homes. In particular, making high-grade (ie the more expensive types of) facemasks available to the vulnerable, with the warning that these should be worn mainly in high-risk environments, and not everywhere all the time.
Meanwhile
It’s great that Milan and Cortina d’Ampezzo, still popular hangouts of the rich and the not-so-famous, have been able to host a magnificent sporting event. These places have not been tainted by their association with the still recent pandemic. Despite being the places from which an outbreak of a significant new coronavirus fanned out to create a three-year pandemic that changed the world. That outbreak was probably containable, if we had acted with more nous and more knowledge of the common pathogens of daily life.
But who was looking at the Italian Alps in those heady ski-holiday days of February 2020? We were transfixed by China.
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Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.
Keith Rankin, trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.
Analysis by Keith Rankin, 19 February 2026
Keith Rankin, trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.
The RNZ news bulletin of 10pm on 18 February stated: “New Zealand and Australia are outliers in having three-year parliamentary terms, with four or five year terms far more common … politicians have over the years expressed frustration at how much can be achieved in a three-year cycle.”
This is a common but not really valid belief. This year the world’s second largest democracy – United States of America – is holding its election for its House of Representatives. That country has – and has had – a stable two-year term. For some reason it is never mentioned in these discussions.
Below is a table showing average term lengths for comparator countries. We note that in countries with flexible electoral terms, which is all of these except United States, it is commonly only the more unpopular governments which go full-term.
Country
Average
Average
since 2010
since 1950
India
5.0
4.2
Italy
4.5
4.1
Ireland
4.3
3.7
France
4.0
4.1
Germany
4.0
3.8
Sweden
4.0
3.4
UK
3.5
3.7
Canada
3.5
3.1
New Zealand
3.0
3.0
Australia
3.0
2.6
Japan
2.8
2.8
USA
2.0
2.0
We note in particular that elections in the United Kingdom have been on average 3.7 years apart, despite that country having a five-year term limit. And that that country presently has a governing party for which popular support, as consistently measured by opinion polls, has so far registered below 20% for much of the so far short life of its rule. The fact that the likely date for the next election is more than three years away is a major source of political instability there.
Most importantly, in the table above, New Zealand is not an outlier.
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Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.
Blade shearers at work preparing for the Golden Shears in Masterton.RNZ/Sally Round
At Rewa Rewa Station’s woolshed in Tīnui shearers are at work, but it’s not as noisy as usual.
Over the clatter of sheep hooves on the floorboards, you can make out the snip-snip-snip of blade shears instead of the much louder whirr of machine shearing tools.
Holding the shears – which look like giant scissors – are 15 blade shearers from several countries – here to learn a few tips from world champion blade shearer Allan Oldfield, in preparation for the Golden Shears competition in Masterton next week.
Blade shearing is slower than machine shearing but leaves a thicker layer of wool on the sheep, beneficial if they’re caught in spring storms, Oldfield said.
“Blade shears leave about half an inch, so 10 or 12 millimetres of wool on the sheep, and that just gives them some protection against the elements, whereas even the cover combs on machines, which are meant to leave more wool on, they only leave five or six millimetres of wool.”
It’s done over a short season but is a skill in demand, with only about 20 commercial blade shearers in New Zealand, he said.
“It takes a lot of time to learn to blade shear well. For three months of work a year, a lot of people aren’t willing to put that effort in.”
A shearer works his way with his blades over a sheep, leaving a thicker layer of wool on the animal, beneficial before spring storms.RNZ/Sally Round
Blade shearing tutors Allan Oldfield and his father Phil at smoko in the woolshed.RNZ/Sally Round
Blade shearing is valued for cultural as well as practical reasons, according to the multi-national group in the woolshed.
Maureen Cadet from France has used her blades on flocks on remote islands where there is no electricity, and on milking sheep in the Pyrenees.
“It’s actually a pretty nice day, because everybody is gathering. We are, like, 20 or more shearers, blade shearing on that small flock for the day, and having a party at night.”
Wearing moccasins, tough jeans and a black singlet, she looks like shearers the world over, honing her blades on a sharpening tool in the corner of the woolshed.
Maureen Cadet holding a pair of blades. She has ten pairs at home in France.RNZ/Sally Round
In another part of the shed, shearers from The Netherlands and the Basque Country sort through a fleece, exchanging knowledge in a mixture of Spanish, Dutch and English.
Erik Bijlsma, from The Netherlands, likes the idea of practising an old craft.
“We’ve got those flocks that are grazing fields of heather, that are brought into the village, and then they make a sort of a festivity out of it to shear the sheep, and that’s all done in the traditional way.
“It’s much easier on the ears than machine shearing.”
Blade shearers from The Netherlands, France and the United States training at Rewa Rewa Station in Tīnui.RNZ/Sally Round
Being a social bunch, blade shearers enjoy the relative quiet of their craft, Oldfield’s father Phil said.
With half a century of shearing and wool handling under his belt, he was also in the woolshed imparting his knowledge.
Not having to shout above the machines, talk on the woolshed floor veers from politics to religion to relationships he said.
Also, according to Oldfield senior, blade shearing is way easier on the body.
“When you machine-shear a sheep, you pretty much turn it 360 degrees every time you shear them. And you’re shearing 200 or 300 or 400 a day.
“With the blade shearing, you walk around the sheep, and you might shear one or 200 sheep a day, so a lot less weight being carted around.”
Loren Opstedahl from South Dakota is in the United States’ two-person blade shearing team. He has competed at the Golden Shears twice before in machine-shearing.
His blades and his body were getting a good workout at the blade shearing school – good practice given he rarely took up the blades back home.
“If I practice, I’m shearing alongside my team. So they’re shearing with machines, and I’m over there shearing with the blades, slower, making less money, killing time.
“I just have to force myself to do the practice there, because it’s more nostalgic in the US.”
Allan Oldfield took his blade shearing school to Rewa Rewa Station in Wairarapa to give blade shearers some tips before competition at the Golden Shears.RNZ/Sally Round
New Zealand traditionally does well in the blade shearing, Allan Oldfield said, with South Africa the toughest ones to beat.
He was expecting good competition at the Golden Shears.
“The big thing for competition shearing, and that we’re working on here, is getting a really clean finish on the sheep.
“Blade shearing is probably 65 percent quality of the job, 35 percent speed.”
A case in which an Australian house buyer lost more than A$100,000 because he was two days’ late with his deposit payment could happen in New Zealand, too, a banking expert says.
The Queensland Supreme Court ruled this week that Stephen Gary Evans had to forfeit his entire $98,500 deposit – plus interest.
He had tried to buy a property at Shailer Park, near Brisbane, in 2024 for A$985,000 from Yea Lan Jan.
Justice Michael Copley noted in his judgement, issued on Friday, that the contract to buy the house was subject to a building and pest inspection, and finance.
The parties agreed that the contract was formed on 23 January, 2024.
The contract required the deposit to be paid into the real estate agency trust account when both parties had signed.
But because of bank transfer limits, the full amount was not paid until two days later.
Evans was told by his bank that he had to visit a branch in person if he wanted to increase the limit on the amount he could transfer, which was set at A$50,000 a day.
There was not enough time to do so on the day the contract was signed so he rang the real estate agent that evening.
He received a text the next morning telling him he “may need to deposit today” and was able to transfer A$45,000. He sent a text saying the rest would be sent the day after.
The real estate agent replied, appearing to confirm that plan.
A building and pest inspection happened that day.
The next day, he transferred another A$50,000 and arranged for his brother to transfer the remainder of the deposit.
“In the meantime, at 1:17 pm that day the defendant’s solicitors sent an email to the plaintiff’s solicitors inviting comment about why [Jan] could not terminate the contract in view of the deposit not having being paid in accordance with the contract,” Copley noted.
“On 28 January 2024 the realtor informed the plaintiff via a text message that the defendant did not want to sell the house to him and was going to cancel the contract. On 29 January 2024 the defendant’s solicitors informed the plaintiff’s solicitors that the defendant terminated the contract because the plaintiff failed to pay the deposit by the due date in accordance with the contract.”
Evans told the court that he thought the real estate agent had the authority to represent the seller in all aspects of the sale.
“Based on the text message of 10:58 am on 24 January 2024 and the absence of any further message to the contrary, he believed the defendant had agreed to him paying the deposit on 24 and 25 January 2024. Had he not received this message from the realtor he would have attended his bank on 24 January 2024 and arranged to pay the deposit in full that day,” Copley’s judgement said.
Jan gave evidence that she never authorised the agent or requested that she agree to the extension of time for the deposit.
Copley said that the real estate agent did not have authority to agree to arrangement for the payment of the deposit that did not align with the contract.
Jan counterclaimed for the deposit plus interest from 29 January, 2024 and was successful.
“The counterclaim is based on the plaintiff having breached clause 2.2(1) of the contract by not paying the deposit by 23 January 2024. This was not a matter which was in dispute. Next, if the plaintiff failed to comply with an essential term of the contract, the defendant could terminate the contract under clause 9.1. This was not disputed … Then the defendant relied on clause 9.4(2) of the contract which provided that if the defendant terminated the contract under clause 9.1, the defendant may ‘forfeit the Deposit and any interest earned’.”
Copley ordered that the deposit be forfeited to Jan plus interest.
Banking expert Claire Matthews of Massey University said the same situation could happen here, but it was unlikely – and was likely to be an anomaly in Australia too.
“It seems the purchaser could have a case against the agent for not advising the seller.”
She said, as in Australian coverage of the case, it was “morally wrong even if legally correct”.
“I think the vendor has been unreasonable, and I wonder about their motives. However, the purchaser did have the option of visiting a branch to enable the full deposit to be made, and it’s not clear why that didn’t happen.
“It also appears the purchaser may not have had legal advice, and I’d strongly encourage both parties in a real estate transaction to get legal advice.”
Banking Ombudsman Nicola Sladden said banks’ payment limits varied.
“If a customer knows they will need to make a large or unusual transaction, it’s a good idea to contact their bank in advance. This allows the bank to work with the customer to put appropriate arrangements in place, so the payment can be made safely and on time.”
Sir Charles Godfray from Oxford University is a population biologist and director of its Future of Food programme.Rebecca McMillan / Supplied
It is time for the food sector to have difficult conversations about its emissions, particularly beef and dairy. That was the message from a top UK scientist at the Riddet Institute’s Agrifood Summit.
Sir Charles Godfray from Oxford University is a population biologist and director of its Future of Food programme.
Addressing food security and sustainability at the Wellington gathering this week, he said while there had been concerns about how to feed a burgeoning population – expected to hit over 10 billion people by the 2080s – the bigger issue was how to feed them while ensuring adequate nutrition.
“We now know that if you bring people out of poverty, if you provide them with education, especially for girls, then human population fertility goes down. So we can now intellectually think about a time when humanity’s demands on the planet to produce food will plateau and even go down.”
In particular, there were challenges about feeding an ageing population, Sir Charles said.
“Old people demand different, a different type of food than the younger people.”
Addressing protein deficits and improving diets, particularly in low-income countries, was another challenge facing the food sector with the “fetishisation of protein” in recent years.
Sir Charles said high- and middle-income countries like New Zealand had to avoid the “hypocrisy” of lecturing lower-income countries on how to manage this in a warming climate.
He thought it likely the world would begin to see more and more extreme events associated with climate, so that the effects of the food system on the climate and the climate on the food system would become “undeniable”.
“We need to have proper conversations about livelihoods and just transitions and how sectors can transform.
“When we talk about the challenges of milk and dairy in high-income countries, we must be very careful not to transpose those worries onto low-income countries, especially low-income countries where animal-based agriculture are so important.”
Sir Charles said it was possible ultra-processed foods, or UPFs, may become an important tool in addressing these challenges.
“There will be challenges in the global food system that may require foods that would be categorised as ultra-processed foods. If you think that UPFs are just the devil and can never be improved, then that is to me worrying because we will need these foods to address, for example, environmental things.”
While many contained “a lot of fat, a lot of sugar, a lot of salt” and were designed to be eaten very quickly, thus making them “energy dense” and increasing the risk of overconsumption, he said more work was needed to better understand their possible benefits as well as the harm they can cause.
Food producers had also yet to grapple with the consequences of the rise of GLP-1s – medication which mirrored our natural hormone GLP-1 to suppress appetites and regulate blood sugar levels.
Sir Charles said figures suggested about 15 percent of people in the US were using GLP-1s, and food companies like Nestlé were starting to develop products tailored to these needs.
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
RNZ Country Life’s Mark Leishman interviewing Colin Martin at Nicol’s Blacksmith Shop DuntroonKaran Lawrence
A visit to Duntroon’s original Victorian-era blacksmith shop is a visit back in time. Nicol’s Blacksmith Shop has been around for 125 years and, while these days it is a tourist attraction, it is still a hub for the Duntroon community of 100 or so residents.
Rather than making horseshoes, today it makes metal knick knacks, pokers for outdoor fires and key rings for children’s school bags.
The ramshackle wooden structure includes the original earthen floor. There is no need for a wooden floor because that could catch fire.
Chairperson of the Nicol’s Blacksmith Historic Trust, Jan Keeling, said the shop had been lovingly restored and rescued.
She said the community had a dozen or so volunteers who kept the tourism industry going in the town and made sure the local businesses survived.
The pay off was locals were able to have a coffee and scone all year round.
She said there was much pride among locals at managing to keep the blacksmiths, built in 1900 featuring hand-pumped bellows, in working order.
“Prior to this building, a lot of the farms had their own forge, and the blacksmith would travel around working, shoeing horses or repairing or sharpening implements.”
Master saddler and farrier Steve Smith shoeing Brook the gig horse at Nicol’s Blacksmith Shop in DuntroonKaran Lawrence
Keeling remembers when Duntroon was well off the beaten track, but that all changed about a dozen years ago.
Cyclists started arriving as the Alps To Ocean Cycle Trail added Duntroon to its list of stops.
She said the cycle trail had been a game-changer and amazing for the community.
“We have volunteers working here, creating things to sell in our little shop because the shop still runs on the smell of coal dust.”
The Duntroon Heritage Trail was created to honour the 150th anniversary of Duntroon last year.
Keeling said the smithy’s recent history was as important as its original history, with four local farmers getting together to buy it in the 1960s when they realised the building might be demolished.
With its forge, anvil and bellows, everything was in place and ready to go, but it sat there until 2005 when newcomer Mike Gray saw the potential and formed a trust.
It found a well-known restoration builder, Dave Barkman, who offered to come and live in Duntroon for a year. He literally pulled it to bits and rebuilt it like a jigsaw puzzle.
Judy Waterstone was the present-day chief blacksmith at Nicol’s shop with 25 years experience.
As “bellows boy” Colin Martin pointed out, the blacksmiths was predominantly run by women.
“This is quite a unique blacksmith shop. When you look around, we’ve got two lady blacksmiths with Mary an apprentice, and I’m just a bellows boy,” he said.
“And there’s a reason for that old saying about too many irons in the fire,” Waterstone added.
“Many a time I’ll try and do two pieces at once, and it’s fine as long as you keep that momentum up, but the moment you don’t, one burns, and is ruined because there’s too many irons.”
Leaving the huff and puff of the blacksmith shop, I headed over the back fence to meet Steve Smith, who, at 74 is a Master Saddler, one of only six in New Zealand.
The former freezing worker loves Clydesdale horses and decided, after having trouble finding suitable riding tack, he would try and make the harnesses and saddles himself.
So he travelled to Salisbury in the United Kingdom and learned from the best saddlers in the business.
Duntroon’s Master Sadler Steve SmithJo Raymond
Just like a Savile Row suit-maker, Smith made each saddle to measure and it all started with a wooden tree or frame.
It was covered with heavy, bovine skirting leather, sheepskin padding and more softer leathers for the seat, skirts, and fenders or flaps.
Rather than using a sewing machine, Smith hand sews the leather onto the tree, finally stamping or carving designs into the leather and adding silver trim and stencilling his name on the flap.
Each saddle was worth around $3000 and took 50 hours to create.
Smith would like to retire.
“I’d love to be able to teach somebody, but nobody seems to be interested. For a young fellow or woman who had a bit of skill with their hands and motivation, it would be a pretty good sort of career.”
As climate change threatens cacao plantations, chocolate manufacturers are investigating “cacao-free pathways” to meet global demand.
Currently, the best options are chocolatey products either grown in labs or produced from fermented plants, according to new research by New Zealand’s Rabobank. But connoisseurs won’t find their taste an exact match, warns research analyst Paul Joules.
“It can be close. But obviously, those who have very specific taste buds will know exactly what they’re looking for, and it probably won’t be exactly that,” he tells RNZ’s Nine to Noon.
Because it only grows close to the equator, cacao is “a very volatile crop”, says Paul Joules.
Pablo Merchan Montes / Unsplash
– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
