Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Greg Raymond, Lecturer, Australian National University

At least 37 people were killed on Thursday by a lone assailant at a day care centre in Thailand’s north-eastern province of Nongbua Lamphu, local police say. Among the dead are at least 24 children, while the alleged gunman also killed his wife and child, then himself.

The alleged killer was a former member of the police force, who was facing trial on a methamphetamine possession charge after having been dismissed over drug allegations.

This shocking incident will trigger a national conversation around gun control and drug use, as well as on questions of mental health after a really difficult couple of years since the onset of COVID-19, ahead of the next election scheduled for around May 2023.

Lone assailants rare

Lone gunman massacres have been very rare in Thailand.

Aside from yesterday’s tragic killings, there’s only one other similar incident in the country’s modern history. That occurred in February 2020, when a disgruntled Thai soldier killed 29 people and wounded 58 others in the city of Nakhon Ratchasima, most of whom were shot at a shopping mall.

Other mass shooting incidents have occurred when the military has put down popular demonstrations. For example, the “Black May” mass demonstrations in 1992 where over 50 civilians were killed, and the 2010 military crackdown following the “red shirts” protests in which just under 100 people were killed.

COVID, poverty and mental health

I think (and hope) this incident will trigger a national conversation in Thailand about issues surrounding mental health. But I have my doubts. There’s somewhat of an attitude of Buddhist-informed stoicism in the country, to accept the reality of suffering and just keep going in the face of hardship.

There has been serious adversity since the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic and there’s an accumulating resentment towards the current government. The country has had a very difficult time over the last two years, as the national economy shrunk by more than 6% in 2020 and scores of workers lost their jobs particularly in the hospitality and tourism sectors. Some of the worst affected have been poorer families, whose kids stopped going to school. They may not return, which suggests this could turn out to be an ongoing generational issue.

Thailand isn’t very well-resourced when it comes to support for mental health. A 2015 study found “an urgent need to invest in the policy, practice, and research capacity for mental health promotion” in Thailand.

While the country is better than a lot of parts of Southeast Asia in terms of welfare payments (they have been prepared to take on government debt during the pandemic), there are still problems rolling it out. Consequently, there’s been growing resentment directed towards the current prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, who’s very unpopular.

Read more:
‘This country belongs to the people’: why young Thais are no longer afraid to take on the monarchy

Security force reform?

This massacre has happened just ahead of the next election, which is scheduled for the first half of next year. Politicians are starting to get into campaign mode.

In the past, opposition parties have occasionally campaigned on issues around reforming the security forces, and in recent years there have been signs the government wants to be seen to be doing things on this issue. One such topic has been that of military conscription – all men over 21 years of age in the country must register for the draft, which takes the form of a lottery every April.

This practice is very unpopular, and became a political issue in the last election. The military has floated ways to scale back conscription, but whether changes will actually be implemented is another matter.

My studies of the Thai military over a long period suggest such announcements are often quietly shelved later.

Indeed there’s relatively little oversight of the security forces, because of the country’s governance – in many respects, the military is the government. Other agencies of the government are reluctant to put any pressure on the security forces, as is the country’s anti corruption commission. Military reform is left to the military itself.

Read more:
A good coup? Military rule is unlikely to heal Thailand

Drug use and gun control

Another central issue that will likely be raised in the national conversation is methamphetamine. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime has for some time been warning about the volume of meth moving through the Mekong region, a lot of which is being shipped through Thailand.

There’s a view among anti-drug agencies that such volumes of probably couldn’t be moved around without high-levels of the security forces being involved. The issue of corruption among security forces isn’t new, and dates back to the mid-20th century where the “Golden Triangle” (at the confluence of Thailand, Laos and Myanmar) was a notorious haven for drug lords and opium production.

In the 1950s, Thailand’s most powerful generals Sarit Thanarat, Phao Sriyanond and Phin Choonhaven worked with Chinese syndicates in opium and heroin trafficking.

Manufacturing has been slowly pivoting from opium to meth, as the latter is much less visible than vast poppy fields.

Drug issues have from time to time become a national issue, such as in 2003 when Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra launched an anti-drug campaign, which featured extra-judicial killings. Hence this period has since been compared to that of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s infamous war on drugs.

Read more:
Duterte’s war on drugs: bitter lessons from Thailand’s failed campaign

At least one prominent Thai, the Director of Thailand’s Moral Promotion Center Dr Suriyadeo Tripathi, has called for gun control since the massacre, but it’s a relatively new debate in the country.

The alleged killer who carried out this week’s massacre legally purchased the gun he used in the attack (though he mostly used a knife).

There’s a significant number of weapons in the community and it’s relatively easy to get your hands on one.

There’s never been mass community outrage about gun control (and there’s no United States’ style gun lobby in Thailand) though this latest massacre may spark a reckoning.

Greg Raymond does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Tragic Thai massacre raises issues of mental health, drug use and gun control ahead of next year’s election – https://theconversation.com/tragic-thai-massacre-raises-issues-of-mental-health-drug-use-and-gun-control-ahead-of-next-years-election-192087

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Javier Leon, Senior lecturer, University of the Sunshine Coast

Australians along the east cost are bracing for yet another round of heavy rainfall this weekend, after a band of stormy weather soaked most of the continent this week.

The Bureau of Meteorology has alerted southern inland Queensland, eastern New South Wales, Victoria and northern Tasmania to ongoing flood risks, as the rain falls on already flooded or saturated catchments.

This widespread wet weather heralds Australia’s rare third back-to-back La Niña, which goes hand-in-hand with heavy rain. There is, however, another pressing issue arising from La Niña events: coastal erosion.

The wild weather associated with La Niña will drive more erosion along Australia’s east coast – enough to wipe out entire stretches of beaches and dunes, if all factors align. So, it’s important we heed lessons from past storms and plan ahead, as climate change will only exacerbate future coastal disasters.

How La Niña batters coastlines

La Niña is associated with warmer waters in the western Pacific Ocean, which increase storminess off Australia’s east coast. Chances of a higher number of tropical cyclones increase, as do the chances of cyclones travelling further south and further inland, and of more frequent passages of east coast lows.

Australians had a taste of this in 1967, when the Gold Coast was hit by the largest storm cluster on record, made up of four cyclones and three east coast lows within six months. 1967 wasn’t even an official La Niña year, with the index just below the La Niña threshold.

Read more:
La Niña, 3 years in a row: a climate scientist on what flood-weary Australians can expect this summer

Such frequency didn’t allow beaches to recover between storms, and the overall erosion was unprecedented. It forced many local residents to use anything on hand, even cars, to protect their properties and other infrastructure.

Official La Niña events occurred soon after. This included a double-dip La Niña between 1970 and 1972, followed by a triple-dip La Niña between 1973 and 1976.

These events fuelled two cyclones in 1972, two in 1974 and one in 1976, wreaking havoc along the entire east coast of Australia. Indeed, 1967 and 1974 are considered record years for storm-induced coastal erosion.

Studies show the extreme erosion of 1974 was caused by a combination of large waves coinciding with above-average high tides. It took over ten years for the sand to come back to the beach and for dunes to recover. However, recent studies also show single extreme storms can bring back considerable amounts of sand from deeper waters.

La Niña also modifies the direction of waves along the east coast, resulting in waves approaching from a more easterly direction (anticlockwise).

This subtle change has huge implications when it comes to erosion of otherwise more sheltered north-facing beaches. We saw this during the recent, and relatively weaker, double La Niña of 2016-18.

In 2016, an east coast low of only moderate intensity produced extreme erosion, similar to that of 1974. Scenes of destruction along NSW – including a collapsed backyard pool on Collaroy Beach – are now iconic.

This is largely because wave direction deviated from the average by 45 degrees anticlockwise, during winter solstice spring tides when water levels are higher.

Read more:
2022’s supercharged summer of climate extremes: How global warming and La Niña fueled disasters on top of disasters

All ducks aligned?

The current triple-dip La Niña started in 2020. Based on Australia’s limited record since 1900, we know the final events in such sequences tend to be the weakest.

However, when it comes to coastal hazards, history tells us smaller but more frequent storms can cause as much or more erosion than one large event. This is mostly about the combination of storm direction, sequencing and high water levels.

For example, Bribie Island in Queensland was hit by relatively large easterly waves from ex-Tropical Cyclone Seth earlier this year, coinciding with above-average high tides. This caused the island to split in two and form a 300-metre wide passage of seawater.

Further, the prolonged period of easterly waves since 2020 has already taken a toll on beaches and dunes in Australia.

Traditionally, spring is the season when sand is transported onshore under fair-weather waves, building back wide beaches and tall dunes nearest to the sea. However, beaches haven’t had time to fully recover from the previous two years, which makes them more vulnerable to future erosion.

Repeated elevation measurements by our team and citizen scientists along beaches in the Sunshine Coast and Noosa show shorelines have eroded more than 10m landwards since the beginning of this year. As the photo below shows, 2-3m high erosion scarps (which look like small cliffs) have formed along dunes due to frequent heavy rainfalls and waves.

On the other hand, we can also see that the wet weather has led to greater growth of vegetation on dunes, such as native spinifex and dune bean.

Experiments in laboratory settings show dune vegetation can dissipate up to 40-50% of the water level reached as a result of waves, and reduce erosion. But whether this increase in dune vegetation mitigates further erosion remains to be seen.

A challenging future

The chances of witnessing coastal hazards similar to those in 1967 or 1974 in the coming season are real and, in the unfortunate case they materialise, we should be ready to act. Councils and communities need to prepare ahead and work together towards recovery if disaster strikes using, for example, sand nourishment and sandbags.

Looking ahead, it remains essential to further our understanding about coastal dynamics – especially in a changing climate – so we can better manage densely populated coastal regions.

Read more:
Climate-fuelled wave patterns pose an erosion risk for developing countries

After all, much of what we know about the dynamics of Australia’s east coast has been supported by coastal monitoring programs, which were implemented along Queensland and NSW after the 1967 and 1974 storms.

Scientists predict that La Niña conditions along the east coast of Australia – such as warmer waters, higher sea levels, stronger waves and more waves coming from the east – will become the norm under climate change.

It’s crucial we start having a serious conversation about coastal adaptation strategies, including implementing a managed retreat. The longer we take, the higher the costs will be.

Javier Leon receives funding from Noosa Council and The Queensland Earth Observation (EO) Hub, a partnership between the Queensland Government and SmartSat Cooperative Research Centre (CRC)

– ref. The wild weather of La Niña could wipe out vast stretches of Australia’s beaches and sand dunes – https://theconversation.com/the-wild-weather-of-la-nina-could-wipe-out-vast-stretches-of-australias-beaches-and-sand-dunes-191941

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By William Mude, Public Health Lecturer, CQUniversity Australia

Around 60 Australian women and children are reported to be living in Syrian detention camps, most of them children under six years of age. This week, the federal government announced plans to rescue these Australians – family members of slain or jailed Islamic State combatants – from the camps and repatriate them.

UNICEF says these and hundreds of other children in the camps are “critically vulnerable and in urgent need of protection”, without basics including warm clothes, hygiene, health, education and food.

The time spent in the Syrian detention camps will have affected these children differently depending on their age and stage of development. Their experiences will likely affect their lifelong health and well-being. What is needed to address the trauma experienced during their stay and the challenges they will face following repatriation? How can we help?

Read more:
Australia is well-placed to make the long-overdue repatriation of Islamic State women and children work

How they got there

In 2013, the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) (also called Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)) joined a rebellion against the Syrian government in the Middle East.

By mid to late 2014, they controlled a large part of Syrian and Iraqi territories. During this peak of successes in gaining territories, ISIS attracted thousands of people from around the world to come join their ranks. Reportedly, about 300 people from Australia joined ISIS and other militant groups.

In Syria, ISIS set up a government with a caliphate as the head in its control areas. Vulnerable young Muslim women were lured online from western countries to become brides of ISIS fighters. Women were promised a better future and community where they would be loved, appreciated and valued as Muslim members. But they became a commodity, sold among ISIS fighters on arrival to Syria.

In March 2019, ISIS was defeated and its government collapsed. Thousands of women and children of ISIS fighters were rounded up by the Autonomous Administration of North East Syria and placed in detention camps. In the camps, they have limited access to clean drinking water, poor hygiene, insufficient medical care and counselling, lack of schooling, and poor nutrition.

Read more:
Islamic State: how western European states are failing to protect 28,000 children born to foreign fighters

Trauma and the building blocks of adulthood

Early childhood provides the foundations for adult relationships, behaviours, health, and sociocultural outcomes such as employment and education.

Experts report children of all ages and stages in refugee camps experience a wide range of issues that can affect their ability to thrive.

Our work on migrant and refugee health, vulnerability and resilience reveals migrant youths face challenging stressors such as trauma, loss of status and social networks, lack of opportunities, cultural differences, poverty and unemployment, language difficulties and more. Depending on the support they receive and their environment, young people pass through phases of readjustment following resettlement, with outcomes ranging from integration through to marginalisation.

The Australian children in Syria will have experienced negative health outcomes under ISIS rule and afterwards in the Syrian refugee camps. They will have experienced direct or indirect violence, poor housing, disrupted schooling and malnutrition. They may have been exposed to diseases such as tuberculosis and gastrointestinal infections, and inadequate vaccination against preventable illnesses.

Long-term exposure to these conditions as children are linked to subsequent high-risk behaviours including substance and alcohol abuse. It may lead to mental health issues such as post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety and depression. Chronic medical conditions such as heart disease, diabetes and cancer are more likely. And a broad range of social determinants of health – including poor academic outcomes and poor socioeconomic status – are also affected.

While their time in the Syrian camps will have been traumatic, their repatriation may also be disruptive and influence their health, in similar ways to other migrant groups.

The circumstances of their repatriation, alongside challenges of resettling, may come with stigma and discrimination. They will be unfamiliar with the language and culture in Australia and have uncertain legal status.

Mediation and resilience building

Despite the challenges, children have high levels of resilience and can enjoy improved health, well-being and development once in a safe, stable, supportive and nurturing environment.

Research shows children who’ve been through similar transitions are able to bounce back, express a positive outlook and high level of motivation.

To help the repatriated children thrive in Australia, we recommend interventions underpinned by a trauma-informed framework. This approach would consider different experiences endured by children under ISIS rule, while in refugee camps, on repatriation and during resettling in Australia.

The holistic approach understands the experiences of trauma from different perspectives including awareness, sensitivity, responsiveness and systemic care. Support services could include health assessment, counselling, educational support and maintaining healthy relationships with chidren’s caregivers. Helping children to establish routine can also help with readjustment. These services need to be coordinated and not siloed from one another.

Such integrated services should provide both preventative and curative care services that are culturally appropriate and respectful. Interpreting and mediation services will be needed across the spectrum of medical, emotional and social support.

Services should empower children and address stigma and discrimination. These Australians should not be referred to as “children and families of ISIS”. Their repatriation will be an opportunity for governments, schools, healthcare, community organisations and religious institutions to work together for the children’s development and wellbeing.

Read more:
Refugee camps can wreak enormous environmental damages – should source countries be liable for them?

William Mude receives funding (4-H3C9CYL) from the Australian Government to investigate hepatitis B service use and access for Pacific Islander seasonal workers in regional Queensland. There are no other disclosure to make other than my affiliation with my current institution. The views expressed in this article does not represent my institution’s views.

Lillian Mwanri does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. For the traumatised Australian children escaping Syrian detention camps, help here will be life-changing – https://theconversation.com/for-the-traumatised-australian-children-escaping-syrian-detention-camps-help-here-will-be-life-changing-191856

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emma Sciberras, Associate Professor, Deakin University

ADHD coaching has been in the news this week, with the release of new guidelines for diagnosing and managing attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder.

The evidence-based clinical guidelines recommend ADHD coaching could be considered for adolescents and adults as part of a holistic treatment and support plan.

What is ADHD coaching? Do you really need it? And how do you go about finding coaching support?

Read more:
I think I have ADHD, how do I get a diagnosis? What might it mean for me?

Remind me again, what is ADHD?

ADHD is a neurodevelopmental condition. It involves difficulties focusing attention (for example, in class or at work) and/or excessive levels of activity (for example, being restless and constantly on the go) and/or impulsivity (for example, acting without thinking). These symptoms would be above and beyond what you would expect for a person’s age.

It is most commonly diagnosed in childhood but is increasingly being recognised in adults. ADHD can occur in males or females and often occurs with other difficulties, such as autism and learning disorders.

Read more:
How can you support kids with ADHD to learn? Parents said these 3 things help

ADHD coaching is just one aspect

The guidelines recommend a range of supports for people with ADHD. This includes offering medication and non-pharmacological supports. ADHD coaching is one type of non-pharmacological support.

It involves working with a person to provide education about ADHD, building on individual strengths and resources, and developing new strategies and systems in daily life to help minimise the impact of ADHD symptoms.

ADHD coaching shares common elements with a type of psychological “talk” therapy known as cognitive behavioural therapy, which has strong evidence to support it.

So allied health professionals, such as psychologists, already use elements of ADHD coaching.

There is also a specialised form of life coaching for people with ADHD provided by an “ADHD coach”. This sometimes draws on the experience of people living with ADHD to help others achieve their personal goals.

Read more:
ADHD medications have doubled in the last decade – but other treatments can help too

Does ADHD coaching help?

There are few high-quality research studies evaluating the effectiveness of ADHD coaching, and the advantages of using this approach is unclear.

So the guideline’s recommendation that ADHD coaching “could” be considered as part of a treatment plan for adolescents and adults, was made after input from health professional groups, as well as from people living with ADHD.

We’d like to see more high-quality research evaluating the use of ADHD coaching.

Read more:
ADHD looks different in adults. Here are 4 signs to watch for

Who provides ADHD coaching?

As many allied health professionals use elements of ADHD coaching in their clinical practice, we suggest talking to your main health-care provider to discuss whether ADHD coaching may be right for you, and to discuss referral options.

When choosing the right professional help, consider whether in-person or telehealth sessions would be better, and whether input from someone who is living with ADHD is important.

If choosing an “ADHD coach”, rather than an allied health professional who provides health coaching as part of their practice, make sure they have received appropriate training and are a member of the International Coaching Federation.

Can I get it on Medicare?

The reality is that many people will have to go through the private system to access health care for ADHD.

This may include a Better Access plan to see a private psychologist for partially rebated sessions. So, this usually involves some out-of-pocket costs.

If you chose to see an “ADHD coach” (someone who is not an allied health professional like a psychologist), this is not covered by Medicare, so you will have to pay.

Coaching support may form part of a plan under the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS). But few people with ADHD receive NDIS funding.

Read more:
Should ADHD be in the NDIS? Yes, but eligibility for disability supports should depend on the person not their diagnosis

Emma Sciberras receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, the Medical Research Future Fund, veski, the Waterloo Foundation, and internal research funding from Deakin University. She is a member and director of the Australian ADHD Professionals Association. Emma Sciberras was a member of the development group for the ADHD guidelines mentioned in the article.

Daryl Efron was a member of the development group of the ADHD guidelines mentioned in the article.

Mark Bellgrove receives funding from the NHMRC and MRFF for his research activities at Monash University. He is the President of the Australian ADHD Professionals Association (AADPA) which has led the development of an evidenced-based clinical practice guideline for ADHD

– ref. What is ADHD coaching and do I really need it? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-adhd-coaching-and-do-i-really-need-it-191948

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Pomeroy, Senior Lecturer in Teacher Education, University of Canterbury

Aotearoa New Zealand’s high school teachers’ union recently approved a policy to end streaming – also known as “ability grouping” – in New Zealand high schools by 2030. The primary teachers’ union NZEI Te Riu Roa took a similar stance in March 2021.

Supporters of streaming argue it enables teachers to focus on learning that is most appropriate for the particular achievement level of each class, and to direct extra resources to struggling students.

However, organisations including the Ministry of Education and Iwi Chairs Forum have spoken out against streaming, and policies on Māori and Pasifika education describe streaming as harmful and discriminatory.

But for a nation’s two main teacher unions to move so decisively against streaming is, as far as we know, unprecedented internationally.

So what does the new PPTA Te Wehengarua high school teachers’ union policy actually say? And is it backed by research?

We take a closer look at of the core two claims about streaming that have stirred debate.

Is streaming really discriminatory and racist?

The PPTA policy claims “streaming creates and exacerbates inequity” and “Māori and Pasifika students bear an inequitable burden” from the harms of streaming.

International research shows that streaming actively widens differences in achievement, self-confidence, and enjoyment of school between students in high and low streams.

There is also overwhelming national and international evidence that streaming produces racist and classist outcomes and some studies (and the PPTA policy) link streaming to historically racist policies.

Read more:
Could academic streaming in New Zealand schools be on the way out? The evidence suggests it should be

Research from England shows a widening gap in both achievement and self-confidence from age 11 to 13 when students are streamed for maths and English. Students in top streams increase in achievement and self-confidence compared to students in middle streams.

But importantly, students in top streams are not necessarily the highest achievers. Evidence has also shown that girls, Black and Asian students are more likely to be allocated to a lower level maths class than White students, regardless of where they should be placed based on achievement. Black or Asian students are also more likely to be allocated to a lower level English class than White students.

In other words, streaming reinforces racial and gender achievement gaps and racist stereotypes, going against the idea that all children get a fair go in our public education system.

Research from Aotearoa also reflects these trends, showing that teachers underestimate the achievement of Māori students and overestimate the achievement of Pākehā students in primary, intermediate, and secondary schooling.

When teacher expectations are low, the students are placed into low-level ability groups or streams, often completing mundane, repetitive tasks. Certainly, their learning activities are very different to those of students in the top groups or streams.

This creates a visible gap between the higher and lower achievers. As students go through school, the gap gets wider. Students become disillusioned, lose self-esteem, motivation and engagement when they are continually told through grouping and streaming that they are “not good enough”.

Yet, when students from lower-level groups or streams are given the same opportunities as those in the top groups, they do just as well as those who supposedly had more ability.

Proponents of streaming argue that all students are equal but learn differently, however, the very structure of the streaming system communicates a different message.

Is the proposal to end streaming by 2030 realistic?

So what needs to happen to make the PPTA’s new policy a reality?

It is very possible for streaming and ability grouping to end in Aotearoa by 2030, but it will take a massive and coordinated effort.

Moving away from streaming and ability grouping will work best if everyone works together – including teachers, principals and others working in schools along with government agencies like the Ministry of Education, New Zealand Qualifications Authority and the Teaching Council.

Iwi (Māori tribal) groups and the wider community have a role to play as well.

Read more:
‘Is this really fair?’ How high school students feel about being streamed into different classes based on ‘ability’

It is essential that we have a shared understanding of why the change is important and a shared plan for how to get there.

If streaming and ability grouping is to be removed from our schools, then something needs to be put in its place. We need to keep developing and sharing effective ways of teaching without streaming.

Successfully moving away from these practices is a multi-year project for a school. Transitions that are not well planned can lead to the failure of de-streaming initiatives, and strong leadership is vital to support sustainable reform.

Teachers are already under huge workload pressure, so this needs to be supported with time for them to learn and plan.

With brave leadership, careful and coordinated change, professional development and – most importantly – government investment to support schools through the change, by 2030 we might very well be living in a streaming-free Aotearoa.

David Pomeroy receives funding from the Teaching and Learning Research Initiative (TLRI).

Becky Taylor receives research funding from the Education Endowment Foundation.

Kay-Lee Jones receives funding from TLRI.

Affiliation to University of Canterbury.

Sara Tolbert receives funding from the Teaching and Learning Research Initiative (TLRI).

Christine Rubie-Davies does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. NZ’s key teacher unions now reject classroom streaming. So what’s wrong with grouping kids by perceived ability? – https://theconversation.com/nzs-key-teacher-unions-now-reject-classroom-streaming-so-whats-wrong-with-grouping-kids-by-perceived-ability-192007

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Evans, Lecturer, The University of Queensland

The Nobel Prize in physics this year has been awarded “for experiments with entangled photons, establishing the violation of Bell inequalities and pioneering quantum information science”.

Read more:
Nobel prize: physicists share prize for insights into the spooky world of quantum mechanics

To understand what this means, and why this work is important, we need to understand how these experiments settled a long-running debate among physicists. And a key player in that debate was an Irish physicist named John Bell.

In the 1960s, Bell figured out how to translate a philosophical question about the nature of reality into a physical question that could be answered by science – and along the way broke down the distinction between what we know about the world and how the world really is.

Quantum entanglement

We know that quantum objects have properties we don’t usually ascribe to the objects of our ordinary lives. Sometimes light is a wave, sometimes it’s a particle. Our fridge never does this.

When attempting to explain this sort of unusual behaviour, there are two broad types of explanation we can imagine. One possibility is that we perceive the quantum world clearly, just as it is, and it just so happens to be unusual. Another possibility is that the quantum world is just like the ordinary world we know and love, but our view of it is distorted, so we can’t see quantum reality clearly, as it is.

In the early decades of the 20th century, physicists were divided about which explanation was right. Among those who thought the quantum world just is unusual were figures such as Werner Heisenberg and Niels Bohr. Among those who thought the quantum world must be just like the ordinary world, and our view of it is simply foggy, were Albert Einstein and Erwin Schrödinger.

Read more:
What is quantum entanglement? A physicist explains the science of Einstein’s ‘spooky action at a distance’

At the heart of this division is an unusual prediction of quantum theory. According to the theory, the properties of certain quantum systems that interact remain dependent on each other – even when the systems have been moved a great distance apart.

In 1935, the same year he devised his famous thought experiment involving a cat trapped in a box, Schrödinger coined the term “entanglement” for this phenomenon. He argued it is absurd to believe the world works this way.

The problem with entanglement

If entangled quantum systems really remain connected even when they are separated by large distances, it would seem they are somehow communicating with each other instantaneously. But this sort of connection is not allowed, according to Einstein’s theory of relativity. Einstein called this idea “spooky action at a distance”.

Again in 1935, Einstein, along with two colleagues, devised a thought experiment that showed quantum mechanics can’t be giving us the whole story on entanglement. They thought there must be something more to the world that we can’t yet see.

But as time passed, the question of how to interpret quantum theory became an academic footnote. The question seemed too philosophical, and in the 1940s many of the brightest minds in quantum physics were busy using the theory for a very practical project: building the atomic bomb.

It wasn’t until the 1960s, when Irish physicist John Bell turned his mind to the problem of entanglement, that the scientific community realised this seemingly philosophical question could have a tangible answer.

Bell’s theorem

Using a simple entangled system, Bell extended Einstein’s 1935 thought experiment. He showed there was no way the quantum description could be incomplete while prohibiting “spooky action at a distance” and still matching the predictions of quantum theory.

Not great news for Einstein, it seems. But this was not an instant win for his opponents.

This is because it was not evident in the 1960s whether the predictions of quantum theory were indeed correct. To really prove Bell’s point, someone had to put this philosophical argument about reality, transformed into a real physical system, to an experimental test.

And this, of course, is where two of this year’s Nobel laureates enter the story. First John Clauser, and then Alain Aspect, performed the experiments on Bell’s proposed system that ultimately showed the predictions of quantum mechanics to be accurate. As a result, unless we accept “spooky action at a distance”, there is no further account of entangled quantum systems that can describe the observed quantum world.

So, Einstein was wrong?

It is perhaps a surprise, but these advances in quantum theory appear to have shown Einstein to be wrong on this point. That is, it seems we do not have a foggy view of a quantum world that is just like our ordinary world.

But the idea that we perceive clearly an inherently unusual quantum world is likewise too simplistic. And this provides one of the key philosophical lessons of this episode in quantum physics.

It is no longer clear we can reasonably talk about the quantum world beyond our scientific description of it – that is, beyond the information we have about it.

As this year’s third Nobel laureate, Anton Zeilinger, put it:

the distinction between reality and our knowledge of reality, between reality and information, cannot be made. There is no way to refer to reality without using the information we have about it.

This distinction, which we commonly assume to underpin our ordinary picture of the world, is now irretrievably blurry. And we have John Bell to thank.

Read more:
Better AI, unhackable communication, spotting submarines: the quantum tech arms race is heating up

Peter Evans receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Foundational Questions Institute.

– ref. How philosophy turned into physics – and reality turned into information – https://theconversation.com/how-philosophy-turned-into-physics-and-reality-turned-into-information-191940

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Freyja Watters, PhD candidate, University of Adelaide

Global demand for exotic pets is increasing, a trend partly caused by social media and a shift from physical pet stores to online marketplaces.

The United States is one of the biggest markets for the wildlife trade. And our new research has identified an astonishing number of unregulated wild-caught animals being brought into the US – at a rate 11 times greater than animals regulated and protected under the relevant global convention.

Wildlife trade can have major negative consequences. It can threaten the wild populations from which animals and plants are harvested, and introduce novel invasive species to new environments. It can also lead to diseases transmitted from wildlife to humans and threaten the welfare of trafficked animals.

Tackling this problem requires an international effort – particularly by rich nations where the demand for exotic pets is greatest.

Shining a light on the pet market

Most live animals transported through the wildlife trade are destined for the global, multi-billion dollar exotic pet market. Captive breeding supplies a portion of this market, but many species are collected from the wild – often illegally.

Animals such as otters, slow lorises and galagos or “bushbabies” are frequently depicted on social media as cute, and with human-like feelings and behaviours. This helps create demand for such species as pets which drives both the illegal and legal wildlife trades.

Non-native animals frequently smuggled into Australia in the past, include the corn snake, leopard gecko and red-eared slider turtle. Reptiles and birds are among the most commonly trafficked species because they can be easily transported.

Species deemed at risk from international trade are regulated through the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). It aims to ensure sustainable and traceable legal international trade.

But the convention lists less than 10% of all described plants and terrestrial vertebrates, and less than 1% of all fish and invertebrate species. No international regulatory framework exists to monitor the trade of the many unlisted species.

Read more:
Before you hit ‘share’ on that cute animal photo, consider the harm it can cause

Australia has rigorous regulations for exotic pet ownership and trade. Broadly, our native wildlife cannot be commercially exported.

However, Australia’s fauna is poached from the wild and illegally exported for the international pet market. Once the animal is smuggled out of Australia, its trade in recipient countries is often not monitored or restricted.

For example, research last year showed four subspecies of Australia’s shingleback lizard – one of which is endangered – were being illegally extracted from the wild and smuggled out of the country, to be sold across Asia, Europe and North America.

This lack of overseas regulation prompted the former Morrison government to push for 127 native reptile species targeted by international wildlife smugglers to be listed under CITES. They include blue tongue skinks and numerous gecko species.

But in the meantime, the global illegal wildlife trade continues. Our new research analysed the extent of this, by focusing on the movement of unlisted species to and from the US.

What we found

The US is one of the few countries that maintains detailed records of all declared wildlife trade, including species not listed under CITES.

We examined a decade of data on wild-harvested, live vertebrate animals entering the US. Most would have been headed for the pet trade. We found 3.6 times the number of unlisted species in US imports compared with CITES-listed species – 1,356 versus 378 species.

Overall, 8.84 million animals from unlisted species were imported – about 11 times more than animals from CITES-listed species. More than a quarter of unlisted species faced conservation threats – including those with declining populations and those threatened with extinction.

For example, we found a substantial trade of the unlisted Asian water dragon. These bright green lizards are native to Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Burma and southern China, and are considered vulnerable.

In the decade to 2018, more than 575,000 Asian water dragons were imported to the US from Vietnam. The species has been proposed for inclusion in CITES. But decades of unregulated global trade poses a major threat to the survival of native populations.

Read more:
Lizard in your luggage? We’re using artificial intelligence to detect wildlife trafficking

How do we fix this?

Our study highlights the urgent need to monitor all traded wildlife species, not just those listed under CITES.

The biodiversity of life on Earth is under enormous pressure. Given this, and the other harms caused by the wildlife trade, this lack of regulation and monitoring is unacceptable.

For a species to be considered for listing under CITES, a national government must demonstrate that regulation is needed to prevent trade-related declines. But if trade in the species has never been monitored, how can that need be proven?

Sadly, the trade of many species is not formally regulated until it’s too late for their wild populations. Clearly, tighter regulation is needed to prevent this decline.

Traded wildlife predominantly flows from lower-income to higher-income countries. Many source countries do not possess the frameworks needed to monitor the harvest and export of unlisted species.

So what should be done? First, all nations should follow the lead of the US and record species-level data for all wildlife imported and exported. This information should be gathered as part of a standardised data management system.

Such a system would increase compliance with the rules and make the origin of wildlife easier to trace It would allow trade data to be shared and integrated between countries and allow timely assessment of species which may need further protection.

And second, affluent countries – where demand for exotic pets is largest – must take the lead on sustainable trade practices. This should include supporting supply countries and pushing for better data collection.

Such measures are vital to protecting both wildlife and human wellbeing.

Freyja Watters receives funding from an Adelaide University Postgraduate Research Scholarship.

Phill Cassey receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Centre for Invasive Species Solutions.

– ref. ‘Astonishing’: global demand for exotic pets is driving a massive trade in unprotected wildlife – https://theconversation.com/astonishing-global-demand-for-exotic-pets-is-driving-a-massive-trade-in-unprotected-wildlife-188971

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Darshana Sedera, Associate Dean (Research), Southern Cross University

As data storage has become more accessible than ever, the amount of digital “stuff” we all have stashed away is on the rise, too – for many of us, it’s becoming more unwieldy by the day.

In a recent paper published in the journal Information & Management, we have investigated a rising phenomenon called “digital hoarding” – the need to acquire and hold onto digital content without an intended purpose.

The way we interact with digital content through easily available smartphones, social media and messaging apps only exacerbates the behaviour. Social media platforms especially encourage us to hoard, as our emotions get entangled with the digital contents we share with others, such as photos with lots of shares or likes.

If it can take up to 25 or more selfies before seeing a “winner”, the sheer volume of content creation raises an important question: how do we plan to manage this morass of data?

Taking clutter into the digital era

Hoarding is defined as a persistent difficulty in discarding one’s posessions, and can be either a disorder on its own, or a symptom of another mental health issue such as obsessive-compulsive disorder.

A person with hoarding disorder experiences distress at the thought of getting rid of the items. They end up with an excessive accumulation of stuff in their home, regardless of actual value.

We propose that digital hoarding happens when an individual constantly acquires digital content, feels difficulty in discarding it, and accumulates digital content without an intended purpose.

Digital hoarding can quickly spiral out of control, too – perhaps even more quickly than in the physical world, due to several reasons.

First, the digital hoarder is less likely to notice the space limitations in the digital world. While the boundaries of a physical space are clear, such boundaries are less prominent in digital spaces. Second, hoarding of physical objects happens in fixed boundaries, while digital spaces are “expandable” – you can get additional digital storage with minimum effort at very little or zero cost.

Third, to hoard physical items, a person needs to expend some effort, such as purchasing them. By contrast, most digital contents are either self-created, free, or available on a subscription basis. Fourth, compared with physical stuff, digital contents can be multiplied (for example, by making copies) with very minimal effort.

Overall, having various formats of digital content, an endless capacity to expand storage, increasing emotional attachment, and the lack of a sophisticated retrieval system may all make an individual nervous to delete this digital content – showing the potential signs of digital hoarding.

Defining digital hoarding

We define digital hoarding based on these three criteria: constant acquisition of digital contents, discarding difficulty, and a propensity for digital content clutter.

Constant acquisition refers to the constant gathering of digital content, without much consideration of its value, purpose or utility. With most communications taking place electronically, we tend to keep any and all digital content without discrimination – just in case! This includes emails, images, videos, bills and receipts.

In our research sample, some people had gathered more than 40 terabytes (TB) of digital content over time. Acquisition refers not just to photos you have in storage devices, for instance, but also ones uploaded to social media.

Difficulty of discarding digital content is the second characteristic of digital hoarding. Think about the last time you meticulously deleted old emails, for example. Theoretically, an individual with compulsive hoarding disorder tends to place high value on the contents they have, and as a result, they feel great difficulty discarding them.

Clutter propensity is the third characteristic of digital hoarding. It refers to how abundant digital contents, often unrelated, are stored in a disordered fashion.

As most digital contents can be stored in any digital device, individuals tend to save such content without much organisation and think they can sort it out later. This often leads to a feeling of being disorganised and cluttered in digital spaces.

Read more:
Digital hoarders: we’ve identified four types – which are you?

What can you do to curb digital hoarding?

In our survey of 846 respondents representing the general population, we found that digital hoarding can lead to higher levels of anxiety. Statistically, 37% of one’s total level of anxiety, measured using an established depression, anxiety, and stress scale, was explained by digital hoarding.

Our research also showed females are 27% more likely to feel the negative impacts of digital hoarding, compared with their male counterparts.

Not surprisingly, the number of data storage devices someone owned worsened the impact of digital hoarding. For example, if someone owns multiple hard drives or cloud storage, digital hoarding impacts can increase.

In the modern world, it is inevitable that digital content plays an important role in our lives. Therefore, the potential of serious mental health impacts from digital hoarding is a real possibility.

If you think you’re holding onto too much digital content, here are some tips:

• consider doing a “spring clean” every year, and schedule a time to spring clean your digital footprint
• reduce unnecessary digital content
• come up with simple mechanisms to organise your files, emails, pictures and videos
• reassess the importance of many social networks, including groups in many communication apps, and retain only those essential to you.

However, if you find these issues particularly difficult or confronting, consider speaking to your doctor or a mental health specialist.

Read more:
What is ‘Other’ in my iPhone storage, why is it taking up so much space and how do I clear it?

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. With seemingly endless data storage at our fingertips, ‘digital hoarding’ could be an increasing problem – https://theconversation.com/with-seemingly-endless-data-storage-at-our-fingertips-digital-hoarding-could-be-an-increasing-problem-190356

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cameron Webb, Clinical Associate Professor and Principal Hospital Scientist, University of Sydney

Mosquitoes are a problem every summer. But the recent arrival of the mosquito-borne Japanese encephalitis virus in eastern Australia brings more significant concerns.

There are hundreds of different mosquito species in Australia but only a dozen or so pose a public health threat. Activity of these mosquitoes shifts from season to season with differences in rainfall and temperature.

A changing climate and extreme wet weather events can boost mosquito numbers and bring additional threats.

So how can we reduce the risk of contracting diseases that spread via mosquitoes, including Japanese encephalitis?

First, some mozzie basics

Mosquitoes need stagnant water to complete their life cycle. Immature mosquitoes hatch from eggs and complete their development underwater until they turn into pupae, before emerging as adult mosquitoes.

Female mosquitoes need blood before laying eggs. They seek blood from a wide range of animals and, as well as sucking up blood, they can also pick up a virus. That virus can then be passed on to another animal, or person, when they need another hit of blood.

Mozzies make you sick by injecting a cocktail of saliva and virus when they bite. The “mozzie spit” may leave you with an itching red lump as well as a dose of a potentially deadly disease.

Read more:
5 virus families that could cause the next pandemic, according to the experts

What diseases can mosquitoes transmit?

Australia has always battled with mosquito-borne diseases. Ross River virus infects thousands of people every year. Extreme weather events appear to be increasing the number of cases around our cities and growing coastal communities.

Murray Valley encephalitis virus is incredibly rare but can be fatal. Significant outbreaks have been closely associated with flooding throughout the Murray-Darling Basin region.

Mosquito-borne diseases pose a threat to more than just people. Horses can suffer severe symptoms following infection with Ross River virus or Kunjin virus.

There are also concerns about Bovine ephemeral fever and lumpy skin disease in cattle.

Even in our backyard, our dogs can be affected by parasites spread by mosquito bites.

What about Japanese encephalitis virus?

The discovery of mosquito-borne Japanese encephalitis virus last summer changed the landscape of mosquito-borne disease in Australia.

The illness can be mild, with common symptoms of fever, joint pain and a rash. In severe cases people also experience headache, neck stiffness, confusion, seizures, and sometimes coma and death. Fewer than 1% of those infected will develop a severe brain infection, encephalitis, which may be fatal.

Read more:
Japanese encephalitis virus has been detected in Australian pigs. Can mozzies now spread it to humans?

Japanese encephalitis virus is a significant health concern across Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific. The virus circulates between mosquitoes and waterbirds but pigs can be hosts too.

The virus was first detected in commercial piggeries where reproductive losses had been observed and Australia declared it a “communicable disease incident of national significance” in March.

The virus has been detected in humans, pigs (both in commercial piggeries and feral populations) and mosquitoes across South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland and Northern Territory. There have been 40 cases of human disease, including six deaths.

A recent study of five regional communities in southern NSW suggests almost 9% of the human population had been exposed to the virus last summer.

What might happen this summer?

We’re expecting another wet summer thanks to a third consecutive season influenced by La Niña. Flooding has already started.

More rain doesn’t just mean more mosquitoes: it means better conditions for waterbird breeding too. More water, more birds, and more mosquitoes sets the scene for potentially more activity of Japanese encephalitis and other mosquito-borne diseases.

Read more:
La Niña will give us a wet summer. That’s great weather for mozzies

The mosquito species of greatest concern is Culex annulirostris. This mosquito is the one most likely to be driving transmission of the virus among animals, as well as spillover to the human population.

This species is closely associated with freshwater habitats. With extensive flooding across many regions, there will be plenty of suitable habitat available throughout the coming summer.

So how can we reduce the risk?

While authorities are investigating ways to control mosquito populations such as spraying insecticides especially around piggeries and other high-risk locations, insecticides alone won’t eliminate the risk of Japanese encephalitis virus this season. Other strategies are required.

A safe and effective vaccine is available and authorities are developing strategies to ensure “at risk” communities and individuals have access to it.

But there simply isn’t enough vaccine available globally to vaccinate everyone at risk in Australia.

Surveillance will provide an early warning of elevated risks. Authorities will track and test mosquito populations for the presence of virus, as will various networks of animal surveillance. If detected, authorities can strategically respond through enhanced surveillance, control, or education programs.

Many of the ways we reduce mosquito bites during summer months to allow us to enjoy time outdoors, whether it is in the backyard of bush, will also protect against the mosquitoes carrying these viruses.

Read more:
How to mozzie-proof your property after a flood and cut your risk of mosquito-borne disease

Covering up with loose fitting long sleeves, long pants, and covered shoes will create a barrier to mosquito bites.

Applying topical insect repellents, especially formulations containing diethyltoluamide, picaridin, or oil of lemon eucalyptus, will provide safe and effective long-lasting protection against biting mosquitoes.

Preventing mosquito bites is the best way to protect yourself and your family from mosquito-borne diseases.

Cameron Webb and the Department of Medical Entomology, NSW Health Pathology, have been engaged by a wide range of insect repellent and insecticide manufacturers to provide testing of products and provide expert advice on mosquito biology. Cameron has also received funding from local, state and federal agencies to undertake research into mosquito-borne disease surveillance and management.

– ref. A wet spring and summer means more mosquitoes but now we’ve got Japanese encephalitis virus to worry about too – https://theconversation.com/a-wet-spring-and-summer-means-more-mosquitoes-but-now-weve-got-japanese-encephalitis-virus-to-worry-about-too-191510

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Freyja Watters, PhD candidate, University of Adelaide

Global demand for exotic pets is increasing, a trend partly caused by social media and a shift from physical pet stores to online marketplaces.

The United States is one of the biggest markets for the wildlife trade. And our new research has identified an astonishing number of unregulated wild-caught animals being brought into the US – at a rate 11 times greater than animals regulated and protected under the relevant global convention.

Wildlife trade can have major negative consequences. It can threaten the wild populations from which animals and plants are harvested, and introduce novel invasive species to new environments. It can also lead to diseases transmitted from wildlife to humans and threaten the welfare of trafficked animals.

Tackling this problem requires an international effort – particularly by rich nations where the demand for exotic pets is greatest.

Shining a light on the pet market

Most live animals transported through the wildlife trade are destined for the global, multi-billion dollar exotic pet market. Captive breeding supplies a portion of this market, but many species are collected from the wild – often illegally.

Animals such as otters, slow lorises and galagos or “bushbabies” are frequently depicted on social media as cute, and with human-like feelings and behaviours. This helps create demand for such species as pets which drives both the illegal and legal wildlife trades.

Non-native animals frequently smuggled into Australia in the past, include the corn snake, leopard gecko and red-eared slider turtle. Reptiles and birds are among the most commonly trafficked species because they can be easily transported.

Species deemed at risk from international trade are regulated through the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). It aims to ensure sustainable and traceable legal international trade.

But the convention lists less than 10% of all described plants and terrestrial vertebrates, and less than 1% of all fish and invertebrate species. No international regulatory framework exists to monitor the trade of the many unlisted species.

Read more:
Before you hit ‘share’ on that cute animal photo, consider the harm it can cause

Australia has rigorous regulations for exotic pet ownership and trade. Broadly, our native wildlife cannot be commercially exported.

However, Australia’s fauna is poached from the wild and illegally exported for the international pet market. Once the animal is smuggled out of Australia, its trade in recipient countries is often not monitored or restricted.

For example, research last year showed four subspecies of Australia’s shingleback lizard – one of which is endangered – were being illegally extracted from the wild and smuggled out of the country, to be sold across Asia, Europe and North America.

This lack of overseas regulation prompted the former Morrison government to push for 127 native reptile species targeted by international wildlife smugglers to be listed under CITES. They include blue tongue skinks and numerous gecko species.

But in the meantime, the global illegal wildlife trade continues. Our new research analysed the extent of this, by focusing on the movement of unlisted species to and from the US.

What we found

The US is one of the few countries that maintains detailed records of all declared wildlife trade, including species not listed under CITES.

We examined a decade of data on wild-harvested, live vertebrate animals entering the US. Most would have been headed for the pet trade. We found 3.6 times the number of unlisted species in US imports compared with CITES-listed species – 1,356 versus 378 species.

Overall, 8.84 million animals from unlisted species were imported – about 11 times more than animals from CITES-listed species. More than a quarter of unlisted species faced conservation threats – including those with declining populations and those threatened with extinction.

For example, we found a substantial trade of the unlisted Asian water dragon. These bright green lizards are native to Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Burma and southern China, and are considered vulnerable.

In the decade to 2018, more than 575,000 Asian water dragons were imported to the US from Vietnam. The species has been proposed for inclusion in CITES. But decades of unregulated global trade poses a major threat to the survival of native populations.

Read more:
Lizard in your luggage? We’re using artificial intelligence to detect wildlife trafficking

How do we fix this?

Our study highlights the urgent need to monitor all traded wildlife species, not just those listed under CITES.

The biodiversity of life on Earth is under enormous pressure. Given this, and the other harms caused by the wildlife trade, this lack of regulation and monitoring is unacceptable.

For a species to be considered for listing under CITES, a national government must demonstrate that regulation is needed to prevent trade-related declines. But if trade in the species has never been monitored, how can that need be proven?

Sadly, the trade of many species is not formally regulated until it’s too late for their wild populations. Clearly, tighter regulation is needed to prevent this decline.

Traded wildlife predominantly flows from lower-income to higher-income countries. Many source countries do not possess the frameworks needed to monitor the harvest and export of unlisted species.

So what should be done? First, all nations should follow the lead of the US and record species-level data for all wildlife imported and exported. This information should be gathered as part of a standardised data management system.

Such a system would increase compliance with the rules and make the origin of wildlife easier to trace It would allow trade data to be shared and integrated between countries and allow timely assessment of species which may need further protection.

And second, affluent countries – where demand for exotic pets is largest – must take the lead on sustainable trade practices. This should include supporting supply countries and pushing for better data collection.

Such measures are vital to protecting both wildlife and human wellbeing.

Freyja Watters receives funding from an Adelaide University Postgraduate Research Scholarship.

Phill Cassey receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Centre for Invasive Species Solutions.

– ref. ‘Astonishing’: unprotected wildlife is imported into the US at a rate 11 times greater than protected animals – https://theconversation.com/astonishing-unprotected-wildlife-is-imported-into-the-us-at-a-rate-11-times-greater-than-protected-animals-188971

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alex Munt, Associate Professor, Media Arts & Production, University of Technology Sydney

When I teach budding screenwriters, I will often use the “show don’t tell” rule as a quick-fix for students trapped in the more familiar mode of literary storytelling. The Stranger, an accomplished Australian thriller, written and directed by Thomas M. Wright, abides closely to this adage with visceral storytelling using images and sounds, the material of cinema.

While the film is adapted from Kate Kyriacou’s The Sting, based on the Daniel Morcombe murder, it fictionalises the specifics and leaves the heinous crime off-screen.

In The Stranger, Mark (Joel Edgerton), is at the centre of an elaborate undercover operation tasked with extracting a confession from key suspect Henry (Sean Harris).

Where true-crime books, and podcasts, have the capacity to re-tell timelines, circumstances, and characters in detail – filmmakers need to find imaginative ways to render these stories for the screen. Wright utilises a notion of interiority to do this, which works both literally and psychologically in the film.

Literally, in the sense that it unfolds mostly in underexposed interior spaces, and psychologically with its emphasis on the character’s anxiety manifested through professional work duties.

Interiors

The Stranger is bathed in darkness. In lieu of narrative detail, or exposition, Wright uses cinematic mood to do the work.

This kind of storytelling existed prior to cinema. Watching the film, I was reminded of the paintings of Caravaggio which portray violent scenes using chiaroscuro and an absence of light. This comparison is evident in the setup for the film, when Henry is recruited to work for the faux criminal mob. While this takes place on a remote bus, realism is put to one side with the scene staged in a dark, abstract abyss devoid of background detail.

What follows is a range of dread-inducing scenes that unfold in drab domestic and industrial interiors. In these spaces, curtains and blinds are inevitably drawn denoting the secrecy of the operation and the thematic darkness of the scenario.

Cinematography from Sam Chiplin is bold. And in repeated driving scenes, featuring Mark and Henry, the car itself functions as a chamber for the anticipated confession. Whilst the remote exterior landscape may be visible through the window, it is at a remove, with the two mirrored characters (one good, one evil) remaining trapped within a dark interior cabin.

I saw the film in a theatre, it will be interesting to see if audiences think the film is too dark streaming on Netflix, a controversy of late in relation to Game of Thrones.

Anxiety

On one hand, anxiety is a pre-condition for an undercover cop story. We’ve seen this in Donnie Brasco (1997) with Johnny Depp or, even better, in Martin Scorsese’s The Departed (2006) featuring a gripping performance from Leonardo Di Caprio.

But The Stranger goes one step further in situating anxiety centre frame. Joel Edgerton’s interest in the story, as a producer, was to reveal the sacrifice, and indeed the trauma, which some professions subsume for the greater good.

Mark’s trauma from his police work is ever-present: we see his nightmares, his over reliance on alcohol and his short temper when taking care of his young son. The film explores a mode of psychological interiority in which our deepest and darkest thoughts reside.

In the trailer Mark (Edgerton) models a breathing exercise, drawn from psychological therapy, for his young son (Cormac Wright) saying “Do you want me to teach you something I learned at work?” The character’s panic attacks must ring true for Edgerton, who has spoken publicly about his own experience with anxiety to alleviate the stigma attached to mental health.

Style

The Stranger exhibits a tendency in Australian cinema that has become a recipe for success: true-crime stories which show hypermasculinity played out against a periphery of (off-screen) violence. From The Boys (1998) to Nitram (2021) there is a strong lineage here.

Yet while the market always awards familiarity or brand recognition – will this recipe prove creatively restrictive to Australian filmmakers in the long run? To my mind, Thomas M. Wright’s debut Acute Misfortune (2018) offered something more unorthodox, more vital in Australian cinema. That film, on the late Australian painter Adam Cullen, unfolded within a boxy, claustrophobic frame and delivered a more exploratory, artisanal filmmaking process.

It would be a shame for Wright to be subsumed entirely within a successful, if at times predicable, Australian house style.

Alex Munt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Australian thriller The Stranger puts anxiety centre frame – https://theconversation.com/australian-thriller-the-stranger-puts-anxiety-centre-frame-190903

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

When Scott Morrison was treasurer he flew the kite for an increase in the GST. The debate ran a while, before then prime minister Malcolm Turnbull shut it down. It was all too hard.

Now we have Jim Chalmers with a kite up, although he’s not “freelancing” as much as the wilful Morrison did.

Anthony Albanese is sanctioning Chalmers testing the mood for recalibrating the tax cuts.

Asked on Thursday whether he’d had Albanese’s permission to “float that balloon” on changing Stage 3, Chalmers said, “I don’t need permission to point out that every budget we hand down, including the one in three weeks’ time, will put a premium on responsible economic management”.

At no point during Thursday’s news conference did Chalmers discourage the conclusion that the shape of Stage 3 is up for reconsideration. “It’s not a big surprise to me that on an issue as big as this, there’ll be a range of views,” he said

Stage 3, the last part of the Coalition’s tax package, is tilted towards those on higher incomes.

People on incomes between $45.000 and $200,000 would pay a marginal rate of 30%, with the top 45% rate cutting in at $200,000, rather than the present $180,000. The cost would be more than $240 billion over the first decade.

Only weeks ago Chalmers was insisting this was not the time to discuss Stage 3, which doesn’t start until mid-2024. Now he’s deliberately letting the talk run, highlighting the increasingly uncertain international economic outlook.

Read more:
Politics with Michelle Grattan: Bill Shorten on NDIS reform and the Optus fallout

Despite repeatedly saying he believes the public are up for “a conversation” on how to pay for big spending programs, Chalmers is not so much having a “conversation” about these tax cuts, as engaging in contradictory Delphic messaging. He’s using a tease to fire up the debate.

Thus on Thursday he said “when it comes to the Stage 3 tax cuts, our position hasn’t changed”, while encouraging the impression that it was changing.

If Chalmers was actually having a “conversation” he’d say something like: “Before the election, we promised to deliver these legislated tax cuts. We now think circumstances have changed, and we are considering altering them.” That would be framing a frank conversation.

Why has Chalmers apparently switched his public position? Do new circumstances require a rethink of Stage 3?

It is true the international and local economic outlooks have worsened. But things are also highly volatile. There is no knowing where the Australian economy will be at in mid-2024. On the forecasts, inflation will have subsided. The economy could have slowed to the point where the stimulus from the tax cuts could be useful.

But Chalmers clearly has come to the view that with the deteriorating international situation, it is urgent to get the budget house in order, rebuilding a buffer, and borrowing somewhat less. Among other things, this sends a signal to the rating agencies.

He says in a Friday speech, released ahead of delivery: “The fiscal strains that we’re under are intensifying rather than easing”. Interest payments on debt would increase by about 14% annually over the next four years; defence spending by 4.4% per year; the NDIS by 12.1% annually, with the increases for hospitals and aged care 6.1% and 5% respectively.

“The fiscal position we find ourselves in means that will will have to make some difficult decisions with this budget,” Chalmers says pointedly in his speech. “Following the responsible path, not the path of least resistance. We must be serious about rebuilding our budget buffers – particularly given the deteriorating global outlook.”

Chalmers says “we’re facing the prospects of a third global slowdown in the last 15 years” – following the global financial crisis and the pandemic. “The third would be an inflationary shock and a hard landing brought about by rapidly tightening monetary policy.”

Read more:
Word from The Hill: Yet another rate rise, Stage 3 tax cuts, a repatriation mission, Higgins case

Some of those advocating scrapping or (more realistically) changing Stage 3 point to Liz Truss dumping her tax relief for high income earners, following a very damaging market reaction to her fiscal package.

But the comparison is flawed. Stage 3 has long been built into both federal budget planning and market expectations. Drawing on the British experience is more a convenient argument than a meaningful parallel.

Whether it ends in a change (which now appears increasingly likely) or not, the treasurer’s push to rework Stage 3 is risky.

Even if the status quo were reaffirmed, people would know breaking a promise had been contemplated, and could be revisited later.

Read more:
View from The Hill: Without those ‘lefties’ the Liberals can’t regain government

Going back on the election promise would undermine, to a greater or lesser degree, people’s perception of Albanese’s integrity, after his oft-repeated commitment to keeping promises. The key political question is: would voters on balance tolerate this breach, or would it put a hard-to-remove stain on the government’s future believability?

Those who maintain the tax cuts are unfair and or/unaffordable and the money should be devoted to more worthy purposes (Labor priorities, or shoring up the budget bottom line) downplay the importance of prime ministers keeping their word.

But history, going right back to Paul Keating’s so-called L-A-W tax cuts, and embracing the broken promises of Tony Abbott and Julia Gillard, tells us flouting commitments often ends badly.

Some caucus members are concerned about a backlash if such a key promise is breached, and have been willing to speak out. Mike Freelander, member for the NSW seat of Macarthur, said this week, “We’ve made promises and I think that we need to stick to them”.

Read more:
Grattan on Friday: Can Jim Chalmers become a reforming treasurer?

Andrew Leigh, Assistant Minister for Competition, Charities and Treasury, told Sky News, “we are sticking to the policies we took to the election. I think that’s important for the integrity of the democracy. You saw before the election [a] big drop in the share of people who said that they could trust politicians to do the right thing. So it is important that after the election we are the government that we said we would be before.”

If the government recalibrates the tax cut, senior Labor members who have emphatically repeated the “no change” line, such as cabinet minister Brendan O’Connor, will be left out on limbs. There’ll be backlashes in some seats and the opposition will be delivered an unexpected bonus.

Moreover, this isn’t necessarily the tax argument we should be having.

Rod Sims, former head of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, addressing an Australia Institute summit on revenue on Thursday, argued it was vital to raise more tax. But, he said, “Australia has likely maxed out on raising corporate or personal taxes.

“We are already heavily reliant on these two taxes as they amount to more than 70% of our tax revenue, and high tax rates encourage unfortunate behaviour to minimise tax as Australian rates are generally higher than those levied overseas, or can become disincentives to effort.”

Sims instead suggests various alternatives, including raising extra revenue from energy and mining companies.

It should be remembered that Labor is in its present pickle by its own decisions.

If it had been braver and more confident before the election it would have left the way open to changing the Stage 3 tax cuts. It could also have avoided promising not to make discretionary increases in taxes this term (apart from combating avoidance by multi-nationals).

But Albanese was the small-target man. Instead of giving itself flexibility, Labor purchased insurance. Now it’s left paying off the premium.

Albanese will have the final word on this imbroglio – proceeding with a change, or stepping back. It is an invidious choice, as well as a test of the persuasive power of the treasurer and of the prime minister’s willingness to spend precious political capital.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Grattan on Friday: Jim Chalmers plays the tease as he pushes to change Stage 3 tax cuts – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-jim-chalmers-plays-the-tease-as-he-pushes-to-change-stage-3-tax-cuts-192022

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendan Walker-Munro, Senior Research Fellow, The University of Queensland

In response to Australia’s biggest ever data breach, the federal government will temporarily suspend regulations that stop telcos sharing customer information with third parties.

It’s a necessary step to deal with the threat of identify theft faced by 10 million current and former Optus customers. It will allow Optus to work with banks and government agencies to detect and prevent the fraudulent use of their data.

But it’s still only a remedial measure, intended to be in place for 12 months. More substantive reform is needed to tighten Australia’s loose approach to data privacy and protection.

Read more:
A class action against Optus could easily be Australia’s biggest: here’s what is involved

Changing regulations, not legislation

The changes – announced by Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Federal Communications Minister Michelle Rowland – involve amending the Telecommunications Regulation 2021.

This a piece of “subordinate” or “delegated law” to the Telecommunications Act 1997. Amending the act itself would require a vote of parliament. Regulations can be amended at the government’s discretion.

Under the Telecommunications Act it is a criminal offence for telcos to share information about “the affairs or personal particulars of another person”.

The only exceptions are sharing information with the National Relay Service (which enables those with hearing or speech disabilities to communicate by phone), to “authorised research entities” such as universities, public health agencies or electoral commissions, or to police and intelligence agencies with a warrant.

That means Optus can’t tell banks or even government agencies set up to prevent identity fraud, such as the little-known Australian Financial Crime Exchange, who the affected customers are.

Important safeguards

The government says the changes will only allow the sharing of “approved government identifier information” – driver’s licences, Medicare and passport numbers.

This information can only be shared with government agencies or financial institutions regulated by the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority. This means Optus (or any other telco) won’t be able to share information with the Australian branches of foreign banks.

Financial institutions will also have to meet strict requirements about secure methods for transferring and storing personal information shared with them, and make undertakings to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (which can be enforced in court).

The information can be shared only “for the sole purposes of preventing or responding to cybersecurity incidents, fraud, scam activity or identify theft”. Any entity receiving information must destroy it after using it for this purpose.

These are incredibly important safeguards given the current lack of limits on how long companies can keep identity data.

Read more:
Optus says it needed to keep identity data for six years. But did it really?

What is needed now

Although temporary, these changes could be a game changer. For the next 12 months, at least, Optus (and possibly other telcos) will be able to proactively share customer information with banks to prevent cybersecurity, fraud, scams and identity theft.

It could potentially enable a crackdown on scams that affect both banks and telcos – such as fraudulent texts and phone calls.

But this does not nullify the need for a larger legislative reform agenda.

Australia’s data privacy laws and regulations should put limits on how much data companies can collect, or for how long they can keep that information. Without limits, companies will continue to collect and store much more personal information than they need.

Read more:
What do TikTok, Bunnings, eBay and Netflix have in common? They’re all hyper-collectors

This will require amending the federal Privacy Act – subject to a government review now nearing three years in length. There should be limits on what data companies can retain, and how long, as well as bigger penalties for non-compliance.

We all need to take data privacy more seriously.

Brendan Walker-Munro receives funding from the Australian Government through Trusted Autonomous Systems, a Defence Cooperative Research Centre funded through the Next Generation Technologies Fund.

– ref. Optus data breach: regulatory changes announced, but legislative reform still needed – https://theconversation.com/optus-data-breach-regulatory-changes-announced-but-legislative-reform-still-needed-192009

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew King, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, The University of Melbourne

This week, rain has drenched almost all of Australia – even the arid interior. The heaviest falls have hit the continent’s southeast, where the huge deluge has just propelled Sydney past its annual rainfall record of 2.2 metres with three months to go until year’s end.

Other parts of the eastern seaboard are bracing for yet more flooding in coming days. So what’s actually causing all this rain?

It all started last week, when unusually warm seas off northwest Australia gave off vast volumes of moist air. This air rose to form huge clouds which, propelled by winds, carried billions of tonnes of water across the continent.

Clouds might look fluffy and insubstantial, but they actually carry truly gigantic quantities of water. Let’s take the nearly 100 millimetres of rain that’s fallen so far this week on Sydney’s inner city – about 25 square kilometres. That’s about 2.5 billion litres of water!

On the wettest days, we can accumulate more than 4mm of rain on average across the whole continent. This equates to about 30 trillion litres of water. Or, to use the colloquial Australian measurement, 60 Sydney Harbour’s worth (1 Sydharb = 500 gigalitres).

Why do we get rain in the first place?

Major rain events need two main ingredients: moisture and rising motion in the atmosphere. Most of that moisture comes from evaporation from oceans but some comes from evaporation from the land, especially when it’s wet.

We get rising motion with surface heating or when air is forced to go up over obstacles (like mountains), or when we have weather systems that cause the air to ascend.

A blob of moist air rising from the surface will expand as it moves higher up in the atmosphere, since air pressure drops quickly with height. This is why balloons eventually pop when they go up in the sky. We can’t see this blob as it rises – it hasn’t turned white and fluffy yet.

The expansion of this moist air blob requires work, so energy has to be found from somewhere. The energy is taken from the movement of air and water molecules within the blob, and since temperature is a measure of the movement of molecules, the air cools.

As the air cools and the water molecules slow down, they stick together more easily, forming droplets. This is the process of condensation and it results in clouds forming. Clouds range in sizes but the biggest cumulonimbus – towering dark storm clouds – can reach more than 10km above the surface.

Read more:
A wet spring: what is a ‘negative Indian Ocean Dipole’ and why does it mean more rain for Australia’s east?

Even small clouds contain a lot of water. A single cloud covering one cubic kilometre would hold around 500 tonnes of water. You might wonder why this weight doesn’t bring the whole cloud down immediately. The answer is the moisture is very spread out throughout the cloud, and the air beneath the cloud is denser.

At a certain point, enough water has condensed and come together into droplets for gravity to win out and pull the water to the ground as rain.

So why’s it raining so much right now?

Right now, we have abundant moisture in the air. The weather is primed to move moisture up through the atmosphere, via low pressure systems and cold fronts moving from west to east.

Low pressure systems mean air pressure is lower than the surrounding areas. Because nature likes to even things out, air at the surface moves in to try and cancel out differences in pressure, although the rotation of the Earth forces the air to spiral in rather than moving directly in. This creates winds which move in towards the low pressure centre and then have to move upwards, carrying moisture with them. That’s why low pressure systems are associated with winds and rain.

Cold fronts are characterised by rising masses of air because they mark divisions between colder and warmer air. The warmer air is less dense and forced to rise over the colder air.

Why is there so much moisture in the air? That’s linked to warmer sea temperatures off northern Australia, which cause more water to evaporate from the sea surface.

La Niña conditions – which we’re experiencing for the third year running – brings cooler seas in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator and above-average sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific, including around Australia.

But La Niña has company. We also have what’s called a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, where westerly winds intensify, warming the waters around Indonesia and Australia’s northwest.

With these two climate cycles intersecting, we get more and more moisture in the air around Australia. When low pressure systems emerge, they draw the moisture over the continent and cause the air to rise and form heavily-laden clouds.

We can get heavy rains without La Niña, but La Niña loads the dice, making it more likely we get heavier and more widespread rain events. For example, the chance of having a wet day across a third of Australia more than doubles during La Niña compared to neutral conditions – and is more than five times more likely than in an El Niño event.

During most spring days, only a small percentage of Australia has a day with more than 1mm of rain. But occasionally, we can have days when a third or more of the continent experiences rain – just as we’ve seen this week.

Rain, rain, go away

With the devastating floods of February and March still fresh in our memories, most Australians will be hoping for the rain to stop.

But the deluge isn’t done with us yet.

As La Niña continues, we can expect more widespread heavy rain events. And since eastern Australia’s soils are saturated in many areas, there’s a renewed chance of flooding.

By the start of next year, most forecast models predict a weakening La Niña. But it will most likely be a wet summer. Keep your eye on the horizon – and look for the clouds.

Read more:
La Niña, 3 years in a row: a climate scientist on what flood-weary Australians can expect this summer

Andrew King receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program.

– ref. On our wettest days, stormclouds can dump 30 trillion litres of water across Australia – https://theconversation.com/on-our-wettest-days-stormclouds-can-dump-30-trillion-litres-of-water-across-australia-191949

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By William Partlett, Associate Professor, The University of Melbourne

Support for Ukraine is normally described in ideological or moral terms as a duty to support democracies in the face of resurgent totalitarianism.

This is an important consideration. But since Russia’s declared annexation of Ukraine’s sovereign land last week, there’s now a hard-headed security rationale for supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia.

Russia’s brutal invasion and claimed annexation is a clear breach of an international law rule that is critical to the security of smaller and middle powers like Australia.

This security imperative requires more, not less, support for Ukraine for the duration of this war.

Read more:
The West owes Ukraine much more than just arms and admiration

International law and wars of territorial acquisition

Why should we care about international law? The short answer is that certain rules in the international legal order are effective, even in the absence of centralised enforcement.

Prior to the second world war, international law formally recognised territorial acquisition through war. This was, after all, the age of empires, a time when powerful and wealthy European countries acquired their colonies through war.

But, after the horrors of WWII, the international community built an international order that banned territorial acquisition through war. Article 2 of the United Nations Charter states that:

All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.

This norm has exerted a strong “compliance pull”, which means there have been very few instances of the use of war to annex territory. Since 1945, powerful countries simply do not invade and annex other countries anymore. As problematic as the United States’ wars have been since then, they have never involved a war of territorial acquisition against a sovereign state.

Article 2 is therefore a critical norm for the security of less powerful countries, such as Australia.

Read more:
Ukraine war: Putin announces annexation of four regions, but his hold on them may be flimsy

Russia’s invasion

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the most brazen attack on this rule since 1945. Last week, Russia formally annexed swathes of eastern and southern Ukraine, after invading Ukraine over seven months ago.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has justified this action on the basis that Ukraine is not a “real country” and that its government is the puppet of neo-Nazis and the West. This justification echoes wars of imperial aggression from the 19th century and reflects Putin and his supporters’ neo-imperial mindset.

Russia’s war of conquest is therefore more than a Cold War-esque showdown between Russia and the United States.

It threatens to destroy the key rule found in Article 2 of the UN Charter against the acquisition of territory through war. It therefore threatens to bring us back to the 19th century world where strong countries do what they want and the weak suffer what they must.

The security ramifications

The war in Ukraine, therefore, has clear security ramifications for smaller or middle powers.

If Russia is successful in taking land by force, other powerful countries in the world will be more likely to follow suit.

This has clear implications for Australia’s security position. As China grows more powerful in Asia and our ally the United States weakens, Australia will rely increasingly on Article 2’s strong international law norm against warlike acquisition of territory for its territorial integrity.

Australia’s support for Ukraine so far has been limited. And Russia’s claimed annexations was met with a muted response from the Australian government. This is a mistake.

How we talk about the war

This also has implications for how we talk about the war in Ukraine to countries in the global south.

Discussing the war as one between democracy and totalitarianism might make sense in the West, but is problematic for many countries in the global south that are suspicious of American democracy promotion efforts. This in part has explained the tacit support or neutrality of many of these countries towards Russia.

But if we talk about this war as potentially reopening the door to wars of territorial acquisition today, we are far more likely to persuade these countries of the need to condemn Russia and support Ukraine in its fight to uphold a foundational norm in international law.

Read more:
Is this the beginning of the end for Vladimir Putin?

With its assertions of sovereignty over Ukrainian land through force, Russia’s actions in Ukraine are about more than a new Cold War.

They now pose a fundamental threat to the stability of the international system and the national security of small and middle powers around the world.

Putin’s annexation of Ukraine’s sovereign territory has therefore significantly raised the stakes in this war – for much of the world.

William Partlett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why increasing support for Ukraine is critical to Australia’s security as a ‘middle power’ – https://theconversation.com/why-increasing-support-for-ukraine-is-critical-to-australias-security-as-a-middle-power-191947

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Woodcock, Associate Professor of Mathematical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney

More than a few eyebrows were raised at the weekend when it was reported a staggering 433 people won the jackpot of a government-backed lottery in the Philippines – sharing in 236 million pesos (about A$6.2 million).

Perhaps unsurprisingly, this has led to calls for an enquiry into how this seemingly “near-impossible” outcome could have arisen.

However, a basic understanding of probability and human psychology helps explain why this outcome isn’t as implausible as you might think.

How the lottery works

Each person to purchase a lottery ticket picks six numbers between 1 and 55. The winning jackpot sequence is drawn at random. A ticket wins the jackpot if the six numbers on it are the same as the six numbers drawn.

Each ticket therefore has:

• a six in 55 chance of getting the first number drawn, multiplied by
• a five in 54 chance of getting the second, multiplied by
• a four in 53 chance of getting the third, multiplied by
• a three in 52 chance of getting the fourth. multiplied by
• a two in 51 chance of getting the fifth, multiplied by
• a one in 50 chance of getting the last.

Together, this means any given ticket has a 1 in 28,989,675 chance of winning the jackpot. So how is it possible for 433 tickets to have done this?

What are the chances?

Without knowing how many tickets were actually sold, we can’t know the exact probability of getting 433 winning tickets.

One widely circulated estimate this week assumed there were around 10 million ticket sales, and claimed the chances were as little as “one out of one followed by 1,224 zeros” – a truly absurd number. This is smaller than the chances of flipping a typical coin 2,800 times in a row and seeing tails every time.

However, this estimate ignores substantial empirical evidence about human behaviour and psychology. It naively assumes each person purchasing a ticket has an equal chance of selecting each of the 28,989,675 possible number combinations.

Across the world, it has been clearly observed that some combinations are vastly more popular than others.

This is why some experts often advocate using a random number generator when cashing a ticket. While it won’t increase your chance of matching the winning values, it may reduce your chance of having to share any winnings with multiple other gamblers if you do.

More psychology than probability

A closer look at the winning numbers – 9, 18, 27, 36, 45 and 54 – may give some clue as to a possible explanation. Those of you who paid attention when learning your nine times table will recognise a clear pattern in the apparently randomly drawn numbers.

It’s likely this pattern is what has appealed to people, and why more people will have chosen this particular sequence of numbers. Rather than providing a smoking gun to suggest impropriety, this pattern may indeed explain the high number of winning tickets.

A similarly unusual spike of winners was observed in the United Kingdom in 2018, when five of the six numbers were multiples of seven. In 2020, a streak of consecutive numbers (5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10) produced multiple jackpot winners in South Africa.

Also, you have to remember that the winning sequence is the Philippines lotto is no less likely to be drawn than any other sequence of numbers. The chances of 9, 18, 27, 36, 45 and 54 being drawn are exactly the same as, say, 1, 18, 19, 28, 30 and 46.

Yet many people would (wrongly) perceive the latter sequence to be more likely to occur at random.

In general, humans have been shown to be surprisingly poor judges of what a string of truly random numbers would look like. In fact, they have even been outsmarted at simple probabilistic pattern-matching by the humble pigeon.

In one study, participants were more than twice as likely to select an odd number than an even number when asked to think of a random number, suggesting that some numbers may “feel” more random than others, despite the obvious absurdity of this.

Could foul play be involved?

The fact that 433 winning tickets were sold is far from convincing evidence of any wrongdoing. It would be interesting to know how many people bought this same pattern of numbers in previous weeks, or which other combinations also attract several hundred ticket sales.

Based on anecdotal evidence from other lotteries, this number may not at all be unusual.

We also need to consider the many thousands of similar lotteries drawn around the world each year, almost all of which receive no international press. While such outcomes are highly improbable for any given draw, the huge number of total lotteries means it’s actually quite likely at least one of them will produce a remarkable outcome by chance alone.

There are often accusations when remarkable lottery results are announced, perhaps most infamously when FC Barcelona legend Xavi was announced the winner of a private lottery shortly after moving to Qatar.

But overall it is highly plausible the only real statistical anomaly at play here is how so many people’s perception of randomness drew them to the same number pattern. That said, I won’t be rushing to buy a lottery ticket any time soon.

Read more:
Eliud Kipchoge broke the men’s marathon record by 30 seconds. How close is the official sub-2 hour barrier now?

Stephen Woodcock does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. 433 people win a lottery jackpot – impossible? Probability and psychology suggest it’s more likely than you’d think – https://theconversation.com/433-people-win-a-lottery-jackpot-impossible-probability-and-psychology-suggest-its-more-likely-than-youd-think-191946

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ihsan Badshah, Senior Lecturer in Finance, Auckland University of Technology

The COVID-19 pandemic created a sense of uncertainty and fear across all aspects of life in New Zealand. Along with concerns about health and well-being, many wondered what impact the pandemic would have on the economy and economic policy.

Unpredictable events like this carry significant risk for investors and fund managers alike. There have been several major events in the past two decades that have sent shock waves across the global economy – for example, the 2000-2001 dotcom bubble, the 2007 global financial crisis, Brexit and, more recently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Researchers from Auckland University of Technology have developed an index that highlights just how sensitive our investments are to domestic policy concerns.

This work builds on the limited number of tools to help businesses and investors manage these crises.

Creating a guide for investors

Our study developed a numerical measure, called an “economic policy uncertainty” (EPU) index.

An index is a measure that represents a market in a specific country – NZX50 or ANZ’s business confidence index, for example. These measure the rise and fall of stock prices (or business confidence).

Similar to the business confidence index or investor sentiment index, our EPU index measures the levels of uncertainty stemming from economic policies.

Working from more than two decades of data, our index maps how the stock market responds to periods of economic policy uncertainty. Higher values in the index indicate greater policy-related economic uncertainty faced by political decision makers, giving investors the chance to respond early and shift investment strategy.

Millions of data points

To create our index, we used an already well established methodology based on newspaper coverage of economic policy developments. We incorporated more than eight million newspaper articles published between 1997 and 2021 by four major news outlets including NZ Herald, Fairfax, Stuff and Interest.co.nz.

With the help of digital tools, we extracted words from each news article that broadly captured the three main dimensions of economic policy in New Zealand: news coverage of policy related to economic uncertainty, tax code provisions, and disagreement among economic forecasters.

Read more:
Truss’s mini-budget chaos is unsettling an already-fractured Conservative Party – but is removing her worth the risk?

By focusing on the managed funds industry – non-bank financial institutions that manage investors’ money – and examining monthly returns for a diverse set of mutual funds, pension funds, insurance funds and exchange traded funds, we found that economic policy uncertainty can influence trading behaviour.

In short, fund managers were willing to pay an economically significant premium for funds that offered a hedge against policy uncertainty.

NZ’s unique investment industry

The managed fund industry in New Zealand has several unique features that can broaden our understanding of the crossover between economic policy uncertainty and financial markets.

Read more:
How bonds work and why everyone is talking about them right now: a finance expert explains

First, the industry doubled between 2014 and 2021, growing from around NZ$115 billion to $257 billion.

Second, almost 85% of stock investments in New Zealand are carried out by the managed investment funds, making it a useful industry to test the implications of our index.

A third distinguishing feature of the NZ investment industry is a relatively high investment in foreign stocks, bonds and other assets. Between roughly 60% and 70% funds in New Zealand are invested in foreign assets.

Yet, until now, little has been known about the factors driving fund returns during periods of economic policy uncertainty. Our study attempts to fill this void and highlights the need to account for local economic policy uncertainty in making investment decisions.

Bucking traditional wisdom

Given the unique features of NZ investment industry, conventional wisdom suggests that funds should be more sensitive to global uncertainty than domestic uncertainty.

However, our findings run counter to this. We show that domestic policy uncertainty indeed matters significantly more than those at a global level.

There are two possible explanations for this finding. First, the NZ index contains both local and global economic shocks and is therefore more complete. The second explanation is that NZ fund managers (investors) incorporate more local economic policy uncertainty shocks than global shocks in their investment decisions.

Local insights

Our analysis revealed four key findings:

1. Funds that are more sensitive to economic policy uncertainty are considered risky, therefore risk-averse investors will require a higher return for investing in these risky funds. We estimate the required compensation to be 6% per year.

2. Our index can predict future fund returns for up to 12 months based on risk factors affecting the different types of stocks.

3. Since our index predicts future economic policy-related changes, investment managers can devise strategies to optimise their returns. At the same time, the index can be used by organisations such as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to predict what changes to policy might mean for the market.

4. Finally, global and local investors can use our index as a proxy for the investment outlook in New Zealand.

Fundamentally, our study offers new insights into the NZ fund industry and paves the way for future work to explore whether policy uncertainty can drive investor cash flows in or out of funds.

Another interesting application would be to examine if policy uncertainty contributes to possible herd behaviour among institutional investors and how such behaviour, if present, affects investor returns.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. New economic index reveals the toll policy uncertainty can have on your investments – https://theconversation.com/new-economic-index-reveals-the-toll-policy-uncertainty-can-have-on-your-investments-189677

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nathan Lo, Associate Professor, School of Biological Sciences, University of Sydney

In 1887, Australian Museum scientists undertook a pioneering expedition to Lord Howe Island, a tiny patch of land off the east coast of Australia. Among their many discoveries, they recorded “a large Blatta” – a type of cockroach – under a decaying log.

This was later described as Panesthia lata, the Lord Howe Island wood-feeding cockroach. P. lata was noted as being highly abundant, playing a key role in nutrient recycling, and presumably a food source for the many birds on the island.

Alas, in 1918 rats arrived on the island from a shipwreck. By the late 20th century, P. lata could not be found despite extensive searches over multiple decades, and was assumed to have gone extinct due to rat predation.

But could it have survived in some unexplored pocket of the island?

Putting the cockroach back where it belongs

In 2019, the New South Wales Department of Planning and Environment (NSW DPE) implemented the final stage of its highly successful (although at times controversial) rat eradication program on the island.

Following this, I and my colleagues from NSW DPE, Lord Howe Island Museum, Chau Chak Wing Museum, CSIRO’s Australian National Insect Collection and the University of Melbourne became interested in the biology of P. lata and the potential to repopulate the island with this insect.

This was on the cards because in 2001, P. lata had been discovered on Blackburn and Roach islands, two small islands near Lord Howe Island.

But hang on a minute: why would we want to put cockroaches, one of the most reviled creatures on Earth, back on a beautiful island after their seemingly fortuitous extermination?

Well, P. lata is, believe it not, quite cute and charismatic, and has no interest in going into people’s houses. It is wingless, about 4cm long, and stays hidden in the forest, where it burrows into the soil and feeds on leaf litter and rotting wood by night.

Read more:
How we wiped out the invasive African big-headed ant from Lord Howe Island

Fortuitous rocks

In July we received funding from the Australia Pacific Science Foundation to investigate the genetics and ecology of P. lata from Blackburn and Roach Islands. So Maxim Adams, an honours student in our lab at the University of Sydney, and Nicholas Carlile from NSW DPE headed off to Lord Howe Island to begin the study.

Bad weather prevented them from going out to Blackburn Island, so they decided to examine potential sites on Lord Howe Island that might have once been teeming with P. lata before the rats arrived.

They walked to a secluded area in the north of the island, and decided to turn over a few rocks. Literally the first rock they checked revealed a small congregation of the cockroaches! I was due to join them three days later, but they called me that afternoon with great excitement to relay the news.

They found a few others within a few metres under the same fig tree, but extensive searching over the next few days revealed none in other nearby areas or other parts of the island.

Not the same as their neighbours

We carried out some preliminary DNA tests upon our return to Sydney, finding the rediscovered Lord Howe Island population of cockroaches was distinct from the ones found on Blackburn and Roach islands.

It is possible the population hung on as a result of rodent baiting in the area. The baiting was done in recent decades to assist the survival of various other threatened species.

We are now carrying out more extensive DNA studies, including historical museum samples collected from the late 19th and early 20th centuries, and samples from Ball’s Pyramid, roughly 20km southeast of Lord Howe Island, collected by Dick Smith in the 1960s.

Through these studies, we hope to determine the relationship of the rediscovered population with those originally collected on the island a century or more ago and those on the outer islands. We also hope to uncover the origins and evolutionary history of P. lata.

The Lord Howe Island Group is a UNESCO world heritage site of global natural significance, and is home to more than 100 plant species found nowhere else on Earth, and many more endemic animal species. The biology of many of these species, particularly the island’s invertebrates, remains mysterious.

We hope our use of DNA techniques will help us to establish P. lata as a model for understanding several million years of evolution on the Lord Howe Island archipelago, and aid the re-establishment of this shy yet charismatic creature on its homeland.

Read more:
How we traced the underwater volcanic ancestry of Lord Howe Island

Nathan Lo receives funding from The Australia and Pacific Science Foundation.

– ref. A large cockroach thought extinct since the 1930s was just rediscovered on a small island in Australia – https://theconversation.com/a-large-cockroach-thought-extinct-since-the-1930s-was-just-rediscovered-on-a-small-island-in-australia-191847

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) is a landmark reform of the last decade. But while delivering much benefit, it has operational problems and its cost has escalated dramatically – currently around $30 billion annually, there have been suggestions it could reach $60 billion. The scheme looms as one of the major pressures on the Albanese government’s budgets in coming years.

In this podcast, Michelle Grattan talks with Bill Shorten, Minister for the National Disability Insurance Scheme and Minister for Government Services about the issues around the scheme and the reforms needed to improve its operation and contain its cost.

Registered providers have been warned they’ll be reined to prevent “price gouging”.

“We have to tackle this issue of double pricing. That is the phenomena that you turn up with little Johnny for a service, and if you don’t have an NDIS package, the therapy or the treatment you get, you know, is $100. But if you say to them that you’ve got an NDIS package, magically that same service goes up in price and the scheme shouldn’t be treated that way.”

Shorten wants to clear the legacy load of disputed cases. “When we were elected four months ago, there was four and a half thousand matters tied up in the courts. Now, whilst that’s a small percentage of half a million people [in the NDIS], for those four and a half thousand people, their families, service providers, etc, it’s traumatic, drags on. So we made a resolution to review the matter. What are we really arguing about? Make offers to resolve it”.

In his role as government services minister, Shorten has been vocal in demanding Optus provide the government with full information about those affected by the exposure of the Medicare cards and the like.

“I get that Optus is under a lot of pressure and it must be very tough for their executives. But the real victims here are the customers of Optus […] I think communication is getting better now. The reason why we wanted the data is that apparently there’s 36,900 people’s Medicare numbers that have been breached.”

“Where Optus has required government information – passports, driver’s licence, Medicare, etc – we want to have a line of sight. [To know] who are these individuals who are affected so that if we do detect anyone trying to breach the first wall of our defences, we can red flag it straight away.”

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Bill Shorten on NDIS reform and the Optus fallout – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-bill-shorten-on-ndis-reform-and-the-optus-fallout-191969

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shyamali Dharmage, NHMRC Professorial Fellow, The University of Melbourne

Climate change has caused melting icebergs, flooding, and landslides. It can also bring about an increase in pollen levels, prolong the duration of pollen season, and cause more pollen-related health problems.

Pollen grains landing on the moist membranes of the nose or eyes cause “hay fever” (allergic rhinitis) in one in five people. This often leads to a runny or blocked nose and itchy eyes.

During the pollen season, people with asthma are at greater risk of a flare-up.

Pollen can also trigger thunderstorm asthma, even in those who haven’t been diagnosed with asthma and hay fever.

Read more:
Lush grasslands, higher allergy risks – what hay fever sufferers can expect from another La Niña season

What is thunderstorm asthma?

Thunderstorms cause a drop in temperature and a sudden rise in humidity. This can cause whole grass pollen grains to rupture into particles that are tiny enough to penetrate deeper into the lungs, which causes thunderstorm asthma.

Because of this, a lot of people – even those with no known asthma – can be affected.

The largest thunderstorm asthma event occurred in Melbourne during the 2016 grass pollen season – some 10,000 people were affected and hospital emergency departments were over-capacity by at least 3,000 respiratory-related cases. Sadly, ten people also died from asthma that night.

Who is at risk of thunderstorm asthma?

Even people who do not have a history of asthma are at risk of thunderstorm asthma. However, research has shown some people can be more susceptible to pollen than others. This includes:

• those with pollen allergy, specifically ryegrass pollen allergy
• people who have respiratory conditions such as asthma, hay fever, a cold, and COVID
• being outdoors at the time of the thunderstorm
• people who are of Asian ethnicity
• people living in areas with lots of plant life
• children with a food allergy or eczema
• those with exposure to high levels of air pollution
• those with lower socioeconomic status, as reduced access to health care and poor quality housing can exacerbate symptoms.

In our research, we found people with co-existing allergic conditions (such as asthma and hay fever) to be more impacted by pollen compared to those with single allergic conditions (such as asthma only).

How else can pollen cause harm?

Even outside of thunderstorms, pollen alone can cause asthma attacks requiring hospitalisations, respiratory symptoms such as wheezing and runny nose, and reduced lung function, making it harder to breath.

Despite a low mortality rate, allergic asthma and hay fever can cause further burdens such as additional health-care costs and poorer physical and mental health.

Our yet-to-be-published research has shown grass pollen may trigger a general state of heightened immune responses, leading to increased risk of eczema flares in children.

Other studies have indicated children with eczema experience more symptoms such as a higher intensity of itchiness and rash on days with high levels of grass pollen.

Read more:
Sneezing with hay fever? Native plants aren’t usually the culprit

How can you prepare?

So, what can you do to prepare for the grass pollen season and the threat of thunderstorm asthma?

• download your state’s emergency services app, such as the Victorian Emergency App, which can provide thunderstorm asthma alerts
• keep an eye on pollen counts (see below for useful websites)
• keep doors and windows closed on high pollen days
• use air purifiers
• stay indoors during high pollen counts or thunderstorm asthma alerts
• plant non-allergenic flowers if you have a garden
• keep wearing a face mask. Masks have shown to be very effective in reducing the risk of COVID-19 infection and pollen-induced respiratory symptoms
• take anti-asthma medications. Reliever medications are available over-the-counter. Preventer medications offer much stronger protection but require a prescription from a doctor. They also need to be used preventatively in the setting of pollen-induced asthma, or in severe hay fever, to prevent thunderstorm asthma
• take antihistamines such as Zyrtec, which can be used both on an as-needed basis or more regularly through the pollen season. However, it does not treat or prevent asthma.

If you know you suffer from asthma, hay fever or pollen allergy, you are at risk of thunderstorm asthma. Aside from taking advantage of warning systems and staying out of the storm, you should see your doctor and have an asthma puffer at hand through the pollen season to keep yourself safe. Your doctor can advise you on the correct treatment.

Research including our own has shown pollen exposure can have a lagged effect on the lungs and airways. This means asthma attacks or respiratory symptoms can sometimes occur a few days after exposure. So, if you forget to take medications pre-emptively, it’s not too late. However, go to a hospital if it gets severe.

Refer to the following websites for useful daily pollen information in Australia: AirRater or AusPollen.

Shyamali Dharmage receives funding from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC). She currently holds investigator-initiated grants from GSK and AstraZeneca for unrelated work.

Jo Douglass has received honoraria for educational presentations from Astra-Zeneca, GSK, Novartis, Shire, & CSL. She has served on advisory boards: Sanofi-Aventis, Novartis, GSK, Astra-Zeneca, Shire, Immunosis, Equilium and CSL. She has undertaken contracted or investigator-initiated research for unrelated work on behalf of: GSK, Novartis, Immunosis, AstraZeneca, Sanofi-Aventis, Grifols, CSL, BioCryst & Equilium. She has a personal superannuation shareholding in CSL.

Sabrina Idrose receives funding from the NHMRC Centre for Food and Allergy Research and LifeCourse PhD scholarships.

– ref. Pollen does more than make you sneeze. It can cause thunderstorm asthma, even if you’re not asthmatic – https://theconversation.com/pollen-does-more-than-make-you-sneeze-it-can-cause-thunderstorm-asthma-even-if-youre-not-asthmatic-190235

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Meg Keen, Honorary Professor, Department of Pacific Affairs, ANU; Director, Pacific Island Program, Lowy Institute, Australian National University

Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare will arrive in Australia on October 6 for talks with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. What should we expect from his visit?

Sogavare has had a tumultuous year, particularly as far as relations with Australia are concerned: in April, he signed a controversial security pact with China, the latter of which has been expanding its reach in the Pacific. It was telling that one of Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s first overseas missions after Labor won the May election was to the Pacific, including Solomon Islands.

More recently, Sogavare blasted Canberra for making an “assault on our parliamentary democracy” and directly interfering in domestic affairs after the Australian government offered to help fund the upcoming election, to avoid postponing them to accommodate the 2023 Pacific Games.

Yet only a few weeks earlier, Sogavare also referred to Australia as the country’s “security partner of choice” and gave our PM a warm hug when they met. He even accepted the election funds after securing a one year extension to his term in office. Support the 2023 Pacific Games – one of his top priorities – was banked too.

Sogavare is no stranger to political leadership — he’s been the prime minister of Solomon Islands four times since the mid-1990s. It’s a difficult job, and political allegiances in the island nation are fluid. Sogavare has benefitted from generous Chinese aid and resource revenue. His Western friends worry the increasing Chinese investment could give China strategic advantage and destabilise the delicate geopolitical balance in the region.

Of course, Honiara still benefits from generous aid from Australia and other donors. Australian assistance exceeds $150 million each year, in addition to defence cooperation. Sogavare has no intention of giving up diverse development investments; if he can, he’ll maximise all.

Read more:
In the Solomon Islands, Wong takes first tentative steps in repairing a strained relationship

He’s a fiery orator and adept political operator. He regularly appeals to national pride, but when support wavers he can be assertive, even authoritarian. He switched the country’s recognition to China without waiting for advice from the Foreign Relations Committee, limited media scrutiny of his government, and withheld finances from unsupportive MPs.

A nationalist leader, Sogavare is wary of Australia and its motives. He fears Australia wants to control, not partner, with him. Feeling the political heat from the Australian government after his switch of recognition from Taiwan to China, he lashed out at Australia and others for undermining his government and failing to recognise its sovereignty.

A fractious relationship

His relationship with Australia has long been rocky. In 2006, when prime minister previously, he expelled the Australian High Commissioner over a dispute about a legal case against his attorney general. Matters reached a low during a subsequent and related raid of his offices involving Australian police. He angrily threatened to chuck Australia out of the country. It’s unlikely Sogavare has forgotten or forgiven that chapter of history.

Nonetheless, times move on. At the departure of the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI) in 2017, Sogavare gave an emotional speech of gratitude for what the mission (and Australia) achieved. He thanked Australia for police assistance late last year to help control rioting. The regional intervention brought calm, but Honiara still endured loss of life, looting and extensive property damage.

The inability of his police forces to control social unrest creates a political vulnerability. Sogavare signed the security pact with China to boost his response options for any future unrest and diversify aid and trade. This is in addition to the security agreement Solomon Islands has with Australia. The Chinese deal also benefitted government (and political) coffers.

Some believe the deal helped Sogavare fight off a motion of no confidence that followed the riots.

What can we expect when Sogavare comes to Australia?

The Albanese government has acted quickly to calm the political waters stirred up by the Morrison government’s strong response to the China security pact and other festering irritants related to weak action on climate change and the AUKUS deal. One of the first bilateral visits Foreign Minister Wong made was to Solomon Islands.

Like other Pacific leaders, Sogavare will leverage the tense geopolitical situation to advantage. He’ll work to diversify, not deter, donor relations, even if at times it gets rather messy. To date the strategy has boosted assistance to Solomons by hundreds of thousands.

Harsh words thrown our way by Sogavare are not well matched by public sentiment. For the people of Solomon Islands, Australian engagement is welcome, including security assistance, generous aid, and the expanded labour mobility program.

Sogavare can be tough on Australia, but it’s a careful balancing act. He’ll want to maintain, even grow, labour market access, educational scholarships, and investments in COVID recovery and infrastructure.

There is mutual interest in keeping the region and Solomon Islands stable.

Read more:
Solomon Islands’ election postponement plans ensure global scrutiny will continue

For the upcoming visit, Australia will not apply pressure, but rather play the long game and advance an image of a patient and committed friend. The clear message will be that the door is open for dialogue and the relationship will endure beyond these tense times, and strengthen. Sogavare will likely also be measured and courteous as a guest of state.

There will be sweeteners. Australia will likely put additional offers of assistance on the table, which Sogavare will no doubt graciously accept. But that won’t bind him in the future. His attitude to Australia will remain prickly and wary. The message from Sogavare is he’ll call the tune, even if it is discordant. The Solomon Islands’ opposition, and many back in his country, would prefer a less bellicose approach.

Like other regional leaders, Sogavare claims to be “friends to all, enemy to none”. That’s a nice way of saying: I can go elsewhere when pressured or need resources. But true friends take care not to undermine the foundations, integrity and longevity of a relationship.

This trip is an opportunity to strengthen the relationship through quiet diplomacy, with neither side shying away from critical issues of strategic interests, media freedom and climate action.

The Pacific Island Program at the Lowy Institute receives funding from the Australian government, the private sector and non-government organisations. None of these funds influence the personal views expressed in this article. The author is not a direct recipient of these funds.

As noted in my bionote I am the Pacific Island Program Director, at the Lowy Institute. This is Australia’s leading think tank. I am also an Honorary Professor, Department of Pacific Affairs, ANU.

– ref. Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare is coming to Australia. What should we expect from his visit? – https://theconversation.com/solomon-islands-prime-minister-manasseh-sogavare-is-coming-to-australia-what-should-we-expect-from-his-visit-191850

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Thea van de Mortel, Professor, Nursing and Deputy Head (Learning & Teaching), School of Nursing and Midwifery, Griffith University

A new type of COVID test is set to be available from November for Australians to use at home.

It promises an alternative to rapid antigen tests (RATs), which we’re familiar with. It also promises a faster and more convenient option than PCR (polymerase chain reaction) tests performed in a lab.

The distributor is marketing the new product as a “portable PCR self-test kit” and a “game-changer” in COVID detection.

But does this new kit deliver what it promises? And is it worth the price? Here’s what we know from the limited data publicly available.

Read more:
15 things not to do when using a rapid antigen test, from storing in the freezer to sampling snot

What is the new test, exactly?

The new test is the EasyNAT COVID-19 RNA Test, which has received regulatory approval to be supplied in Australia.

It’s a type of nucleic acid test. That makes it similar in some way to lab-based PCR tests, which also detect the genetic material of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID.

But lab-based PCR tests amplify the genetic material in a different way to this home-based test. So, strictly speaking, this new test is not a PCR test.

The new test isn’t a RAT either. RATs work by testing for viral antigens (parts of viral proteins that generate an antibody response).

But the test does use a collection technique you will be familiar with – a nasal swab.

Read more:
Can you use rapid antigen tests in children under 2 years old?

How does it work?

What’s new (to the general public) is the technology behind the test and its use to detect COVID at home.

It uses a process called isothermal cross priming amplification to copy tiny amounts of viral RNA extracted from your nasal swab. It does this many, many times so there’s enough viral RNA for the test to detect.

It does this without the multiple cycles of high and lower temperatures used to copy and amplify viral RNA in lab-based PCR testing.

Health workers are already using the technology (and the better known PCR) to detect COVID in hospitals and other health-care facilities. Here, they are known as “point of care tests” because they can provide rapid results at the bedside, rather than the swab needing to be processed in a lab.

The EasyNAT takes this further because it can be done at home. The test is said to detect all current variants of SARS-CoV-2.

By comparison, tests are currently under way to see how effective RATs available in Australia are at detecting the Omicron variant.

Do I do the test like a RAT?

Unlike RATs, this test needs to be stored in the fridge before use.

You take a nasal swab, insert it into a solution in a tube, then add one drop to a special battery operated cassette.

Then you add a buffer solution to the cassette, put the cap on, switch the cassette on to process the sample and wait 55 minutes. After switching the cassette off, you add a second lot of buffer solution, close the cap, and wait another 5 minutes before reading the result. The result must be read within 30 minutes of completing the test.

Results therefore take an hour – considerably quicker than waiting for the results from a PCR test processed in a lab, but much longer than a RAT where you get your results in about 15 minutes.

Read more:
When RAT-testing for COVID, should you also swab your throat?

Does it work?

The Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) describes the test as having
“very high sensitivity”. This means more than 95% positive agreement with a lab-based PCR test. This is comparable to the most sensitive RATs. But it is more sensitive than some RATs on the market (those labelled “acceptable sensitivity”, which agree with lab-based PCR tests more than 80% of the time).

The manufacturer reports a percent positive agreement with PCR of 95.4%.

Both European Union and Australian regulators have approved the test for COVID.

The manufacturer also reports a figure of 99% accuracy compared to lab PCR tests. This is a reflection of the sensitivity (correctly detecting a positive case) and specificity (not giving a false positive result). The sensitivity of the EasyNAT is 95.4% and the specificity is 99.8%.

By comparison, depending on the brand, RATs have a sensitivity of more than 80% to more than 95% and a specificity of at least 98% to 100%.

Read more:
How accurate is your RAT? 3 scenarios show it’s about more than looking for lines

What are the drawbacks?

Testing errors (such as incorrect swabbing technique, incorrect storage) mean the possible errors of doing a home RAT are just as likely with the EasyNAT.

A company spokesperson says the test is expected to retail for about A$55, which is considerably more expensive than a RAT (single RATs retail from $9-10, or are free for some people).

It’s unclear if a positive COVID result using this test is enough for eligible people to access oral COVID antiviral medicines, such as Paxlovid or Lagevrio, under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme.

Current requirements are for someone’s COVID status be confirmed by a PCR test or a “medically verified” RAT (one supervised by a health professional).

Read more:
6 steps to making a COVID plan, before you get sick

In a nutshell

The EasyNAT costs more than a RAT and takes longer to complete. It doesn’t appear to be more sensitive or specific overall compared to the best “very high sensitivity” RATs. But it is more sensitive than some RATs on the market.

I’d like to know if the test allows you to detect COVID sooner after infection compared with a RAT (it generally takes at least a couple of days after infection before enough viral proteins accumulate to be detected on a RAT). Those data are not publicly available.

Thea van de Mortel teaches into the Master of Infection Prevention and Control program at Griffith University.

– ref. Here’s another type of COVID test to get your head around. But is this new home kit worth the cost? – https://theconversation.com/heres-another-type-of-covid-test-to-get-your-head-around-but-is-this-new-home-kit-worth-the-cost-189313

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Claire Breen, Professor of Law, University of Waikato

The New Zealand Police were recently found to have been routinely and illegally photographing young people and adults in public. Many might have expected this to see an end to the practice – but apparently not.

Despite the findings of the joint inquiry by the Independent Police Conduct Authority (IPCA) and Office of the Privacy Commission (OPC), police have not been directed to stop photographing adults. And Police Commissioner Andrew Coster has said the police “don’t necessarily accept entirely the implications of the report we received.”

At the heart of this issue, and more recent questions about the use of traffic surveillance cameras and facial recognition technology, is how the right to privacy is administered. Privacy is a fundamental but not an absolute right. The state – of which the police are a powerful arm – is allowed to collect information on people within its borders.

However there are rules governing the collection of information, with protecting privacy a key requirement. The IPCA-OPC report revealed that the police did not follow relevant privacy rules.

Police resistance

Firstly, police photographed rangatahi (young people) without a lawful purpose. Police did not explain why the photography was necessary or seek proper consent from the rangatahi or their whānau (family). These were not isolated incidents.

Secondly, this demonstrated that the police don’t fully understand New Zealand’s privacy principles.

The joint inquiry recommended significant revising and enhancing of police policy, procedures and training to conform with the provisions of the Privacy Act. But this was rejected by the Police Association on the grounds that it went too far and would hamper effective policing.

That view was in turn rejected by the Deputy Privacy Commissioner. But despite the Privacy Commissioner issuing a compliance notice nine months ago, the police continue to photograph adults in public.

Trust-based policing

Police failure to follow established rules – in privacy law or otherwise – has wider implications. Effective policing relies on a wide measure of public support and confidence. Trust is a key element of this.

In the past, trust in the police has been damaged by mistakes and poor management, including the politicisation of their role. As the 2007 Commission of Inquiry into Police Conduct recorded, there have also been instances of disgraceful conduct by police officers and associates involving the exploitation of vulnerable people.

Various attempts to rebuild trust have been made through provisions within the Policing Act, an Independent Police Complaints Authority, public commitments to Māori and formal apologies for wrongful actions that caused hurt and loss to innocent people.

Read more:
Avoiding a surveillance society: how better rules can rein in facial recognition tech

However, levels of trust vary by community, despite police claims (citing independent surveys) that public trust is high. And the findings of the recent joint inquiry are another example of Māori being targeted by and disproportionately represented in police actions.

The report’s findings can be seen as further evidence of institutionalised racism within New Zealand’s justice system, for which the police are gatekeepers. For young people, the consequences of such breaches, and the resulting distrust of police, can last their entire lives and have intergenerational effects.

Updating the law

It is clear police education, training and legislation must change.

Currently, the principles of the Policing Act require police to do their work in a manner that respects human rights, including the right to be free from discrimination.

These principles should be amended to ensure that policing also accords with Te Tiriti o Waitangi, the New Zealand Bill of Rights Act, the Privacy Act and the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.

Read more:
New Zealand needs a new gang strategy – political consensus would be a good start

Given the joint inquiry stems originally from complaints about the photographing of rangatahi, the policing principles should also accord with the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child, prioritising the child’s best interests, their right to be free from discrimination, and their right to be heard.

Determining their best interests must then involve kaumātua (elders) and their communities in culturally appropriate ways. We must remember that what is in the best interests of tamariki and rangatahi Māori is multifaceted: they are tangata whenua (people of the land), they are te rito o te harakeke.

Respecting the law

The Oranga Tamariki Act 1989 incorporates internationally recognised rights and principles concerning young people and children in domestic law. It also incorporates and supplements the longstanding tikanga notion of “mana tamaiti”, defined in the law as:

the intrinsic value and inherent dignity derived from a child’s or young person’s whakapapa (genealogy) and their belonging to a whānau, hapū, iwi, or family group, in accordance with tikanga Māori.

Read more:
Laws governing police use of DNA are changing: are the proposals fair for all New Zealanders?

Police taking unlawful photographs of rangatahi seems out of step with such a definition, as well as the act’s general principles and its principles concerning youth justice.

The protection of all communities and the prevention of crime are central goals of policing. But the police themselves must follow the rules and be accountable if they are to build the trust, support and confidence of the communities they serve.

Updating the Policing Act to better protect privacy will support necessary changes to police education and training, and meaningfully reflect the needs and aspirations of those at the flax roots of the community.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. NZ police need better training in privacy and human rights law – here is what should happen – https://theconversation.com/nz-police-need-better-training-in-privacy-and-human-rights-law-here-is-what-should-happen-190346

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kathryn Allen, ARC Future Fellow, University of Tasmania

Most Australians have known drought in their lifetimes, and have memories of cracked earth and empty streams, paddocks of dust and stories of city reservoirs with only a few weeks’ storage. But our new research finds over the last 1,000 years, Australia has suffered longer, larger and more severe droughts than those recorded over the last century.

These are called “megadroughts”, and they’re likely to occur again in coming decades. Megadroughts can last multiple decades – or even centuries – with occasional wet years offering only brief relief. Megadroughts can also be shorter periods of very extreme conditions.

We show megadroughts have occurred several times across every inhabited continent over the last two millennia. They’ve dealt profound damage to agriculture and water supplies, increased fire risk, and have even contributed to toppling civilisations.

Unless we incorporate the full potential of Australian drought into our planning, management and design, their impacts on society and the environment will likely worsen in coming decades.

The role of climate change

Instrumental records only go back so far. In Australia, they cover only the last 120 years or so. Scientists can gauge local, yearly climate further back in time, by deciphering clues written in tree rings, corals, and buried ice (known as ice cores), among other archives.

To look at previous occurrences of megadroughts, we consolidated findings drawn from such datasets and a range of other long-term records.

Historically, droughts have been defined by rainfall deficits, and these deficits can be largely attributed to complex interactions between oceans and the atmosphere over a long time. For example, decades-long La Niña conditions have been linked to medieval droughts in North and South America.

In contrast, research suggests human-caused climate change is now playing a more important role in amplifying drought conditions, as rising global temperatures increase evaporation.

There is some uncertainty in climate models about the effect of climate change on rainfall at local and regional scales. However, climate change is putting places that have previously endured megadroughts – such as Australia – at an increased risk of megadroughts in future.

Megadroughts and collapsing civilisations

Currently, parts of the United States – including Arizona, Nevada and Utah – are in the throes of a megadrought, lasting some two decades. Historically, megadroughts have profoundly impacted societies and environments.

In the American southwest, megadroughts in the late 1200s likely contributed to the desertion of the Mesa Verde cliff dwellings. Likewise, the Hohokam peoples relied heavily on a canal system, and this dependence in a time of severe and extended drought may have contributed to their decline over the 14th and 15th Centuries.

Read more:
1,000-year-old stalagmites from a cave in India show the monsoon isn’t so reliable – their rings reveal a history of long, deadly droughts

In Central America, a megadrought between 1149 and 1167 likely brought instability to the Toltec state. And a megadrought between 1514-1539 weakened the Aztec state just prior to Spanish conquest.

Europe and Asia have had their share of megadroughts, too. Research shows severe megadroughts in Asia in the 1300s and early 1400s quite likely helped cause the collapse of Cambodia’s vast Khmer Empire.

Megadroughts in Australia

While many Australians may remember the severity of the Millennium Drought between 1997 and 2009, we found this drought wasn’t actually particularly unusual. Megadroughts of the same or greater severity have occurred over the past 1,000 years across several parts of Australia, and were relatively common over much of eastern Australia.

This includes megadroughts between 1500 and the 1520s, and between the 1820s and 1840s. And while relatively short, a dry period between 1789 and 1795, coinciding with European invasion, included several years of severe drought. The year 1792 in particular was extremely dry over almost all of eastern Australia.

Read more:
We found a secret history of megadroughts written in tree rings. The wheatbelt’s future may be drier than we thought

Western Australia’s wheat belt is currently experiencing a decline in rainfall. This, too, isn’t unusual compared to droughts there in the past. Tree rings in the region reveal that longer, more severe droughts occurred there six times in the last 700 years, including the years 1393-1407, 1755-1785, and 1889-1908.

Even in Tasmania, evidence suggests prolonged dry periods occurred in the latter part of the 16th Century, with a shorter but more severe downturn from 1670-1704.

We need to be better prepared

Water management in Australia has relied on short instrumental data. These do not capture the full range of variability in our rainfall.

This means, for example, that Australia’s infrastructure may be inadequately designed or managed to cope with major flood events or prolonged dry conditions.

Now, even relatively short but very dry periods can lead to major problems. We saw this recently in Tasmania in the summer of 2015 and 2016 when, after a dry winter and spring, water levels in major catchments were minimal and fires raged in the west. The Basslink cable, which connects Tasmania to the national grid, broke, resulting in the use of diesel power generation to keep power on in the state.

Read more:
Was Tasmania’s summer of fires and floods a glimpse of its climate future?

Future megadroughts will amplify the pressures on already degraded Australian ecosystems. We know from Australia’s recent past the harm relatively smaller droughts can impose on the environment, the economy, and our mental and physical health.

We must carefully consider whether current management regimes and water infrastructure are fit-for-purpose, given the projected increased frequency of megadroughts.

It’s difficult to plan effectively without fully understanding even natural variability. And this means better appreciating the data we have from archives such as tree rings, corals and ice cores – crucial windows to our distant past.

Kathryn Allen receives funding from the Australian Research Council

Alison O’Donnell receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC)

Benjamin I. Cook’s research, including the article this piece is based on, is funded by NASA. He is also an Advisory Board Member at Weather Promise.

Jonathan Palmer receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC).

Pauline Grierson receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC).

– ref. Megadroughts helped topple ancient empires. We’ve found their traces in Australia’s past, and expect more to come – https://theconversation.com/megadroughts-helped-topple-ancient-empires-weve-found-their-traces-in-australias-past-and-expect-more-to-come-191770

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julie Shiels, Senior Industry Fellow, RMIT University

Artist Paul Yore works with found and discarded materials, including other people’s abandoned craft projects. Embroidery threads, braid, cross stitch samplers and quilt pieces – once objects of promise and anticipation – sit forgotten in sewing boxes and bottom drawers, until they are consigned to the op shop or the tip.

Rescuing the residues of other people’s unrealised projects provides Yore with material possibilities and imagined histories. He works these discards together with found texts and images to produce riotous textile works expressing the flux and contestations of contemporary life.

Queer culture, corporate greed, hyperconsumption, Christianity and the police state are tackled without compromise.

In WORD MADE FLESH, the Australian Centre for Contemporary Art presents tapestries, appliques, collages and soft sculptures produced over 15 years. This comprehensive survey of Yore’s work is completed by a new commission: an architecturally-scaled pleasure palace constructed from the remnants of societal collapse.

Also on show is Yore’s intellectual courage and energy, solidly underpinned by anthropological, philosophical and art history knowledge he uses to push against societal and Christian taboos. This pushing against taboos extracted a high personal toll in 2013, when child pornography charges were brought against him for one of his exhibitions. (These charges were later dismissed.)

The curation and design shared between the artist, his partner Devon Ackerman and the gallery’s artistic director Max Delaney maximises the immersive experience of the final work. There is only one way into the exhibition and visitors must traverse four different zones, titled “signs”, “embodiment”, “manifesto” and “horizon”, before they enter WORD MADE FLESH.

Read more:
Pass the Iced VoVos: the resurrection of Australiana

Transgressive signs

The first space introduces Yore’s practice through small textile works incorporating found texts and aphorisms about politics, gender and sexuality.

The polite media of cross stitching, tapestry and applique – usually associated with patient crafting on laps, hands kept busy to hold the devil at bay – are transformed into a transgressive methodology in form and content.

The constraints of the repetitive “x” in cross-stitching or restrictions of the tapestry grid that regulate the spacing and length of the stitches are subverted by Yore.

He achieves a visual tension through finely calibrated formal and technical skills.

“Never be queer enough” and “excuse me for feeling” are inserted into traditional bordered formats. The tranquillity of the imaginary drawing room is upended by images of syringes, skulls and pink triangles.

Embodiment, manifesto and horizon

The next three spaces chart Yore’s creative development. Rectangular forms are enlarged to become quilts, religious iconography is explored and reimagined and queer lives expressed.

The rich aesthetic of Rococo and Baroque clothing and drapery intersects with the elaborate excesses of drag queen wardrobes. Rectangles are swapped for triangles, reclaiming the symbolism of the pink triangle.

In one of his biggest works, the Darkest Secret of my Heart, the legacies of Australia’s colonial history are obscured by cartoon characters and other pop culture graphics.

Soft sculptures of sexualised hybrid human/cartoon bodies inhabit the gallery at a scale simultaneously confronting and intriguing.

Tucked away in the last room is a temple of irreverence and critique that amplifies the pagan aesthetic of a colonising Catholicism in Africa and Latin America.

Populated by beaded collages of “mature content”, the curtained space melds the atmospherics of a confessional booth and a gay sex bar.

Societal collapse is nigh.

Entering from the low lights and institutional critiques in the previous galleries, the new space of WORD MADE FLESH shouts societal collapse from a prefab tower covered with messages.

Scavenged corporate branding jostles with handwritten placards and is camped up with the sparkle of thermal blankets and cute neons.

The inner walls of the tower are lined with banks of screens endlessly looping hyper-illuminated montages of found images and GIFs. SpongeBob SquarePants is a reminder of simpler times.

Anthropomorphic sentinels appear to guard the installation, channelling junkyard Madonnas and marketing deities made from sales detritus.

A geodesic dome lined with handmade crochet blankets and neon symbols offers an unexpected respite. Inside, an elaborate font-like water feature confected from kitsch and plastic penises decorated with shells doubles as a kinetic musical instrument. Straw bales provide seating to contemplate the moving parts and whimsical cacophony.

In the first four galleries, Yore’s textile works built a critique of contemporary times meticulously supported by art historical, philosophical and cultural references. In WORD MADE FLESH he tears it all down and rebuilds a makeshift world made from 21st century junk – except for a hearse covered in Byzantine-style mosaic.

In a shift back to permanence and precision, this funeral wagon has been immobilised by a lavish coat of glass tiles embellished with images of phalluses and flowers and parting words like “see you in hell”. A keyboard embedded in the side of the vehicle drones out a discordant final chord.

By choosing a material (tiles) and echoing a tradition dating back more than 1,500 years, is Yore hinting at a return to the brutality of the Dark Ages? Having constructed “a queer alternative reality, erected from the wasteland of the Anthropocene”, could he be offering a final ride in a pimped-up hearse?

Paul Yore: WORD MADE FLESH is at the Australian Centre for Contemporary Art, Melbourne, until November 20.

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Julie Shiels does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Paul Yore: the uncompromising Australian artist riotously tackling queer culture, corporate greed and hyperconsumption – https://theconversation.com/paul-yore-the-uncompromising-australian-artist-riotously-tackling-queer-culture-corporate-greed-and-hyperconsumption-191427

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yee-Fui Ng, Associate Professor, Faculty of Law, Monash University

Last week, the government introduced into parliament the bill establishing the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC).

This honours the government’s election commitment to introduce a “powerful, transparent and independent” federal anti-corruption commission by the end of the year.

What are the powers of NACC?

So, how does the government’s NACC stack up against other models?

The NACC has strong coercive powers to investigate serious and systemic corrupt conduct in government, equivalent to the powers of a royal commission. This includes the power to compel documents and witnesses.

Retrospective investigations are possible, meaning the conduct of former governments can be examined.

The investigative threshold of “serious or systemic corrupt conduct” compares favourably to the previous Coalition government’s proposal, which required suspicion of corruption amounting to a criminal offence. Such a high bar would prevent investigations from even proceeding.

The NACC’s lower threshold may capture elements of “grey corruption”: that is, where a person has undue influence over a politician, such as by essentially buying that power through making large donations or hiring expensive lobbyists, particularly where it causes public officials to behave in corrupt ways.

Potentially the NACC could investigate the previous government’s repeated rorts scandals, but only where it amounts to serious or systemic corrupt conduct.

The NACC has a broad jurisdiction to investigate the actions of ministers, MPs, ministerial staff, staff of Commonwealth agencies and companies, government contractors, and those acting on behalf of the Commonwealth.

But the NACC cannot investigate parties outside the public sector if they do not have contracts with the government.

In short, the NACC is equipped with strong powers to carry out their task of investigating corruption in the public sector.

Read more:
How does the government’s long-awaited anti-corruption bill rate? An integrity expert breaks it down

Who will watch the watchdog?

With such strong powers, safeguards are needed to ensure accountability for the NACC’s actions.

In this vein, decisions of the NACC would be subject to judicial review by the courts to ensure their legality.

The NACC will also be overseen by a parliamentary joint committee. This will be a bipartisan committee with members from government, the opposition and the cross-bench.

The parliamentary committee approves commissioner appointments and can report on the sufficiency of NACC’s budget. However, the budget is ultimately determined by Cabinet.

Anti-corruption commissions are vulnerable to having their budgets cut by hostile governments. For instance, the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) has had its budget severely cut following its explosive revelations of corruption in government.

Will the NACC be effective?

One criticism of the proposed NACC is the high threshold for public hearings, which can only be held in exceptional circumstances. This is equivalent to the Victorian Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission (IBAC).

However, other bodies, such as the NSW ICAC, have a broader ability to hold public hearings where it is in the public interest to do so.

Public hearings ensure proceedings are not cloaked in secrecy and will increase public trust. Having a higher bar to hold public hearings reduces transparency.

However, there are legitimate issues about damage to individual reputations where a person subject to a public hearing has their reputation tarnished in the media, but is ultimately found not guilty by the courts.

The Centre for Public Integrity has produced statistics showing that, in the seven year period up to 2020, NSW ICAC held 42 public hearings and produced 39 public reports, compared to Victorian IBAC’s 8 hearings and 14 reports.

The centre argued the NSW body’s public interest test does not lead to overuse of public hearings, as in that seven year period, NSW ICAC held 979 private examinations, compared to 42 public inquiries. So, the NSW threshold is arguably preferable.

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Will we have a national anti-corruption commission by Christmas?

After many years of campaigning by interest groups and academics, Australia is finally close to having a national anti-corruption commission.

On balance, the government’s proposed NACC does provide a strong, yet proportionate, vision for an anti-corruption commission with robust powers and both internal and external accountability mechanisms.

The Coalition has signalled its in-principle support for the NACC, but noted reservations about the NACC having extensive powers.

The Greens and teal candidates may seek amendments to the bill to reduce the threshold for public hearings and empower the NACC to investigate third parties outside the public sector, even if they do not have contracts with the government.

Subject to any negotiations, it is now time for parliament to pass the bill.

The electorate has spoken and a federal anti-corruption commission is long overdue. Australians deserve a robust system of accountability that will keep our politicians honest.

Yee-Fui Ng received funding from the New South Wales Independent Commission Against Corruption to write a commissioned discussion paper for Operation Eclipse.

– ref. Will the National Anti-Corruption Commission actually stamp out corruption in government? – https://theconversation.com/will-the-national-anti-corruption-commission-actually-stamp-out-corruption-in-government-191759

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Euan Ritchie, Professor in Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life & Environmental Sciences, Deakin University

Australia’s dire and shameful conservation record is well established. The world’s highest number of recent mammal extinctions – 39 since colonisation. Ecosystems collapsing from the north to the south, across our lands and waters. Even species that have survived so far are at risk, as the sad list of threatened species and ecological communities continues to grow.

During the election campaign, Labor pledged to turn this around. On Tuesday, federal Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek announced what this would look like: a new action plan for 110 threatened species. The goal: no new extinctions. “Our current approach has not been working. If we keep doing what we’ve been doing, we’ll keep getting the same results,” Plibersek said.

But is this really a step change? Let’s be clear. This plan is a welcome improvement – especially the focus on First Nations rangers and Indigenous knowledge, clearer targets, better monitoring and the goal of protecting 30% of Australia’s lands and seas within five years.

But the funding is wholly inadequate. The A$225 million committed is an order of magnitude less than what we need to actually bring these threatened species back from oblivion. The grim reality is this plan is nowhere near enough to halt the extinctions. Here’s why.

There’s nowhere near enough funding

Conservation costs money. Recovering threatened species takes effort. Tackling the threats that are pushing them over the edge, from feral cats to land clearing, is expensive. “Measures of last resort”, such as captive breeding, creation of safe havens and translocations, takes more still.

How much is enough? Estimates put it at A$1.7 billion per year. This is around one-seventh of the money Australian governments spent on fossil fuel subsidies last financial year. If there’s funding for that, there should be funding for wildlife.

Make no mistake – starving conservation of adequate funding is a choice. For decades, Australia’s unique environment and wildlife have been thrown consolation crumbs of funding – even though they are our collective natural heritage, fundamental to human survival, wellbeing and economic prosperity, and a major draw card for tourists and locals. You can see the results for yourself: more extinctions and many more threatened species.

Picking winners means many species will lose

Labor’s plan is focused on arresting the decline of 110 species, and 20 places such as the Australian Alps, Bruny Island and Kakadu and West Arnhem Land.

Unfortunately, that’s a drop in the ocean. Combined, we now have more than 2,000 species and ecological communities listed as threatened. Picking species to survive betrays our remarkable, diverse and largely unique plants, animals and ecosystems. It suggests – wrongly – that we have to choose winners and losers, when in fact we could save them all.

The plan assumes recovering priority species may help conserve other threatened species in the same areas and habitats. This is questionable, given only around 6% of listed threatened species are slated to receive priority funding, and how much the needs of different species can vary even in the same habitats and ecosystems. Different species respond very differently to fire regimes, for instance.

Policies and laws are essential

Funding by itself isn’t enough. Unless all levels of governments enact and enforce effective policies aimed at conserving species and their homes, the situation will worsen. Australians are still waiting to see what reforms actually emerge from Graeme Samuel’s sweeping review of the main laws governing biodiversity and environmental protection.

Alignment of policies is vital. What’s the point of saving a rare finch from land clearing if you’re simultaneously opening up huge areas to fracking, polluting groundwater and adding yet more emissions to our overheated atmosphere? Despite Labor’s rhetoric on threatened species and climate change, they are still committed to more coal and gas.

Similarly, native vegetation clearing and habitat loss is barely mentioned in the threatened species plan. Yet these are leading causes of environmental degradation, as the 2021 State of the Environment Report makes clear.

If you want to save the critically endangered western ringtail possum and endangered black cockatoos, why would you approve the clearing of habitat vital to their existence? The Labor government did just that in July.

Conserving more land isn’t a panacea

Protecting 30% of Australia’s lands and oceans by 2030 sounds great. But protecting degraded farmland is not the same as protecting a biodiverse grassland or wetland. And establishing protected areas is not the same as effective management.

To get this right, the new areas must add to our existing conservation estates by adding species and ecological communities with little or no representation. They must help species move as they would have before European colonisation, by connecting protected areas separated by human settlement or farms. And there must be enough money to actually look after the land. There’s no point protecting ever-larger tracts of degraded, weed-infested, rabbit, deer, horse, pig, fox and cat-filled land.

The 50 million hectares of land and sea to be added by 2027 is supposed to come almost entirely from Indigenous Protected Areas. But again, where’s the funding? Right now, these land and sea areas get a pittance – a few cents per hectare per year.

It’s also important to support conservation on private land, where many threatened species live and where significant gains can be made. Maintaining wildlife on private land can also help farmers and landholders through pollination and seed dispersal as well as broader ecosystem health.

We need laws with teeth

If you liked it, you should have put a law around it. If the federal government is serious about ending extinctions, it should be enshrined in legislation. As it stands, “zero extinctions” is a promise with no clear way for us to see who is responsible or how the promise will be kept.

Too cynical? Alas, there’s a very real trend here. Successive governments have avoided accountability for losing species doing exactly this. They release strategies on glossy paper which note we all have a role to play in conservation – but strangely omit the part about who is responsible when a species dies out. If you want to save species, make human careers depend on species staying alive.

We know strong legislation and billions rather than millions of dollars are needed to stop extinctions. So far, the new government has announced inadequate funding, a non-binding strategy with an aspirational goal, and a seemingly rushed idea of a biodiversity market, dubbed “green Wall Street”, which made conservationists including the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists very concerned.

Tossing breadcrumbs to conservation is what we’ve done for decades. It’s a major reason why our unique species are in this mess. Time’s up.

Euan G. Ritchie is the Chair of the Media and Communications Working Group of the Ecological Society of Australia, Deputy Convenor (Communication and Outreach) for the Deakin Science and Society Network, and a member of the Australian Mammal Society.

Megan C Evans receives funding from the Australian Research Council through a Discovery Early Career Research Award and has previously been funded by the Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment, WWF Australia, and the National Environmental Science Program’s Threatened Species Recovery Hub.

Yung En Chee receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Melbourne Waterway Research-Practice Partnership.

– ref. Labor’s plan to save threatened species is an improvement – but it’s still well short of what we need – https://theconversation.com/labors-plan-to-save-threatened-species-is-an-improvement-but-its-still-well-short-of-what-we-need-191845

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sue Dean, Lead Lecturer Practitioner, Nursing, Faculty of Health., Southern Cross University

The toll of COVID on our health-care workers has been brutal, with many saying they want to quit their jobs.

The World Health Organization says burnout, coupled with an ageing workforce, is a “ticking time bomb” that could lead to “poor health outcomes across the board, long waiting times for treatment, many preventable deaths, and potentially even health system collapse”.

The Royal Australian College of General Practitioners’ just released annual survey reported some three-quarters of GPs say they feel burnt out.

With burnout characterised in part by a “depersonalisation” or a sense of detachment, it can be tough to care for others. “Compassion fatigue” can set in. So how can we help health workers so they can continue to help others?

A worldwide workforce shortage

Workforce projections predict health workforce shortages worldwide. Retention is a major factor and burnout the major contributor. During the pandemic, studies from the United States and Singapore reported unprecedented turnover in the health-care sector, and again burnout was the biggest factor.

In Australia, a report found that during the first wave of COVID, nurses experienced high rates of anxiety and depression. COVID disruptions meant less access to social supports. Less social support affects a person’s ability to cope.

Workplace culture was seen as negative. There were safety concerns about working with patients with COVID. A fear of transmitting the virus to their families and friends led to increased anxiety. There was inadequate, inappropriate and often limited or unavailable personal protective equipment (PPE) for health-care workers and carers. When it was available, workers felt PPE and physical distancing constraints prevented them providing the compassionate care required.

Health-care workers experienced increased violence and aggression from patients and the public when enforcing government-mandated restrictions. They also faced significant increases in workloads.

New models of care were introduced, often with little preparation or training. Staff shortages resulted from COVID isolation and staff were redeployed to areas of high need in health care, which left shortages in other areas.

Health-care workers also identified a lack of support from leadership and organisational culture compromised their psychological safety.

Read more:
Moral injury: what happens when exhausted health workers can no longer provide the care they want for their patients

Burnout and clinical mistakes

The Australian Medical Association reports almost half the junior doctors in New South Wales are overworked and exhausted, and burnout could be putting patients at risk. Of 1,766 doctors surveyed, 76% reported making a fatigue-induced clinical error.

A US study reported increases in physician burnout was associated with increased medical errors and worse patient outcomes.

And an international study reveals nurses reporting “missed care”, “care at improper times” and “unfulfilled care” due to excessive job demands.

Read more:
A burnt-out health workforce impacts patient care

When caring for others is too much

“Compassion fatigue” means health-care workers are unable to carry out their roles. Compassion fatigue can result from repeated exposure to others’ suffering in high stress environments and the constant giving of self.

It leads to complete physical and emotional exhaustion, depleting health-care workers of their ability to cope. Crucially, it disconnects them from their patients, making unable to be empathetic and provide compassionate care. Usual coping strategies aren’t effective and negative coping strategies such as alcohol or substance abuse can follow. Ultimately, workers feel a diminished sense of satisfaction in their work and burnt out.

Health-care workers can mitigate against compassion fatigue by making time for themselves, enforcing work boundaries, and creating a better work-life balance.

Strategies such as mindfulness meditation have been shown to be effective. So have employer support programs such as counselling services and advocating for organisations to provide healthy and nurturing workplaces.

Read more:
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Rejecting the health hero narrative

Compassion fatigue and burnout also occur when health-care workers are not valued.

During the pandemic, health-care workers have been increasingly portrayed as angels and heroes, who appear to be able to swoop in and save the day. Nurses and other health-care workers have argued this narrative is outdated and fails to recognise their complex roles.

Instead of being given hero status, nurses and other health-care workers are seeking opportunities to highlight the complex skills and compassion required to undertake their roles. This could prove transformative for media reports, fictional portrayals of doctors and nurses on screen, and even how hospitals and health centres represent health-care workers in recruitment and retention campaigns.

Read more:
Nurses don’t want to be hailed as ‘heroes’ during a pandemic – they want more resources and support

A time to re-evaluate

The pandemic has brought the predicted shortages in the health-care workforce into sharp focus. The role of burnout and compassion fatigue are important factors.

While resilience is a key protective factor – and one that health-care workers are encouraged to develop – it isn’t enough. Health-care leaders have an ethical and legal obligation to ensure all workers have access to work environments that are psychological safe and free from violence and aggression. And health needs to be adequately resourced so patient care is prioritised and workloads are safe.

After all, if we don’t care for our health workforce, who will care for us?

Read more:
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The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Health worker burnout and ‘compassion fatigue’ put patients at risk. How can we help them help us? – https://theconversation.com/health-worker-burnout-and-compassion-fatigue-put-patients-at-risk-how-can-we-help-them-help-us-191429

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Meredith Primrose Jones, Researcher – Oceania Cyber Security Centre; Researcher – Centre for Cyber Security Research and Innovation, RMIT University

It’s not yet clear who carried out the attacks on the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea last week, although many Western nations are suspicious it was an act of sabotage by Russia.

What is clear is that the ruptures have added to already heightened tensions and an impending energy crisis in the region.

While further investigations are required, if Russia was behind such sabotage, we can view it as an evolution of “hybrid warfare”, because it would highlight how the energy sector and critical infrastructure can be strategically targeted as an unconventional warfare method.

If the damage to Nord Stream is deemed to be a deliberate act of sabotage, there will likely be an escalation in the regional conflict.

Read more:
Nord Stream leaks: where will Europe get its gas from now?

What is hybrid warfare?

Traditionally, war was conducted on a battlefield, between two states in a defined territory. This is no longer the case. As technology has become more advanced, and the enemy more sophisticated, states have moved further away from this traditional warfare style.

Now warfare is conducted across multiple battle domains: air, land, sea, space and through cyberspace, and often simultaneously.

Hybrid warfare refers to newer and more unconventional methods of fighting a war. It can occur across the political, economic and civil spheres, often blending several warfare tactics.

Read more:
Explainer: what is ‘hybrid warfare’ and what is meant by the ‘grey zone’?

Hybrid warfare blurs the lines between conventional and unconventional warfare, as well as the distinction between times of peace and war. As stated by NATO, hybrid warfare can include a variety of tactics such as terrorism, migration, piracy, corruption and ethnic conflict.

While hybrid warfare isn’t a new concept, advances in technology have allowed hybrid strategies to be executed in new ways, such as cyber attacks and information warfare.

Many commentators are concerned Russia or other states with similar military capabilities could attack underwater internet cables.

It’s therefore understandable why some European politicians are claiming that if such critical energy infrastructure has been sabotaged, this would herald a new stage of hybrid warfare.

The recent development of new underwater technology, such as autonomous underwater drones, could also feasibly be utilised to achieve military goals. Such hybrid warfare strategies being employed in maritime zones will likely lead to further discussion on the applicability of the international law of the sea.

It’s important to note we’re not saying who we think caused the Nord Stream damage. We simply want to highlight that if a state or non-state actor were to be found responsible, such an incident could be considered an act of hybrid warfare.

Energy as a weapon

The extent of the damage to the Nord Stream pipelines, which carry natural gas from Russia to Europe, could exacerbate the already vulnerable situation of Europe’s energy crisis.

Controlling and targeting natural resources for military gain has occurred in several past conflicts. For example in Syria, Islamic State controlled an oil refinery and surrounding territory, thereby sustaining their financial model.

Also, the resultant ecological impact of the damaged Nord Stream’s gas emissions is reminiscent of an incident in the first Gulf War when Saddam Hussain deliberately destroyed oil fields and platforms to create an ecological hazard.

Read more:
How Vladimir Putin uses natural gas to exert Russian influence and punish his enemies

A false flag operation?

But the damage caused to Nord Stream isn’t within the boundaries of a territory where a conflict is occurring. It has happened in the international waters of the Baltic Sea, just outside the boundaries of the exclusive economic zones of Germany, Denmark, Poland and Sweden. It’s this feature of the incident that shows how hybrid warfare strategies have evolved – specifically how such tactics don’t need to remain in the conflict zone itself.

Indeed, the Nord Stream incident wasn’t an attack on Western or NATO states’ territories directly. As such, these are hallmarks of a “grey zone” act – coercive tactics which don’t meet the threshold of conventional military warfare.

If Russia is responsible, it could also be understood as a false flag operation. A false flag attack is one in which the actor aims to pin blame for the incident on an adversary, and to distort and weaken the opponent’s military cohesion. Such an operation would result in disinformation and could be used to trigger further military action.

It’s interesting to note that Putin has blamed the Nord Stream attacks on the United States, and the Russian ambassador to the United Nations said last week the US has much to gain from the explosions.

Such an approach would likely aim to weaken the West’s cohesion and willingness to continue supporting humanitarian and military efforts in the region.

Whoever the perpetrator is, such actions send a clear signal to the rest of the world as to the power, reach and willingness to cause disruption beyond the traditional boundaries of a conflict zone.

Sascha-Dominik (Dov) Bachmann received funding from the Australian Department of Defence for research regarding grey zone and information operations targeting Australia.

Meredith Primrose Jones does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘Hybrid warfare’: Nord Stream attacks show how war is evolving – https://theconversation.com/hybrid-warfare-nord-stream-attacks-show-how-war-is-evolving-191764

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chris Wilkins, Associate Professor of illegal drug research, Massey University

New Zealand is generally proud of being a world leader, but there’s one claim that might not be universally admired: being home to the longest running English-language market for illegal drugs on the so-called “darknet”.

Known as “Tor Market”, it has been active since March 2018 and has outlived several larger and better known operations such as “Dream Market”, “Hydra Market” and “Empire”. The longevity of Tor Market is surprising, given so many darknet drug markets have only lasted relatively briefly.

That doesn’t mean you’ll be able to find it easily. The darknet is an encrypted portion of the internet not indexed by search engines. It requires specific anonymising browser software to access, typically I2P or Tor software – hence the local market’s name.

Many darknets sell illegal drugs anonymously, with delivery by traditional post or courier, and resemble legal e-commerce sites such as Amazon.

An analysis of over 100 darknet markets between 2010 and 2017 found sites were active for an average of just over eight months. Of the more than 110 darknet drug markets active from 2010 to 2019, just ten remained fully operational by 2019.

The fragmented darknet ecosystem

Darknet marketplaces have disappeared as a result of increasingly sophisticated and successful law enforcement operations, including clandestinely taking over sites for extended periods to gather evidence on vendors and buyers.

Alternatively, site administrators pull off opportunistic exit scams and abscond with cryptocurrency held in accounts.

No dominant international darknet market has emerged since the “voluntary shut down” of Dream Market in 2019. And there appears to be a general loss of confidence in darknet drug supply due to those enforcement shutdowns and exit scams.

Read more:
The darknet is not a hellhole, it’s an answer to internet privacy

While total sales on all darknet markets increased in 2020, and again in the first quarter of 2021, data for the fourth quarter of 2021 suggest sales declined by as much as 50%.

This makes Tor Market’s performance over the same period even more remarkable. Its listings grew from fewer than ten products in the months prior to Dream Market’s closure in early 2019 to over 100 products by July that year.

After a steady period where there were, on average, 255 listings across 2020 and 379 across 2021, another period of growth happened in early 2022. This saw over a thousand products being listed on Tor Market by mid-2022 (see graph below).

This expansion was driven by a steady increase in international sales, which grew to outnumber domestic New Zealand sales by early 2022.

Filling a market gap

On the face of it, New Zealand may seem an unlikely location for a rising international darknet drug market. Its geographical isolation from large European and US drug markets, small population, and historical absence of any substantial cocaine and heroin supply should all work against it.

Yet these factors may be exactly what has driven this market innovation.

Darknets provide anonymous and direct access to international drug sellers who have MDMA, cocaine and opioids for sale – drug types not easily accessed in physical drug markets in New Zealand. These international sellers are otherwise unlikely to have any interest in supplying such a small, distant market.

Read more:
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By providing offerings from dozens of international drug sellers and a centralised forum for buyers, Tor Market solves the very real economic problem of “thin markets” in the New Zealand drug scene, where there are simply not enough buyers to sustain sellers for some drug types.

Usually, buyers and sellers would have trouble connecting and hence justifying large-scale international trafficking. Darknets solve this problem by offering retail quantities of drug types that are traditionally difficult to source, such as MDMA, directly to buyers.

Read more:
How the world’s biggest dark web platform spreads millions of items of child sex abuse material — and why it’s hard to stop

Size and scrutiny

New Zealanders have a history of innovative solutions to the so-called “tyranny of distance”. They also have a relatively high level of digital engagement and online shopping habits by international standards. Perhaps darknets offer a familiar online shopping experience.

For their part, the Tor Market administrators claim (based on their own site’s help manual) to offer a range of design innovations and features that ensure the security of Tor Market.

This kind of boasting is not uncommon among darknet operators as a marketing strategy to attract new vendors to a site. And it’s not clear whether Tor Market is really offering any superior security features or coding infrastructure compared to other sites.

More credible is Tor Market’s purported business strategy of purposely seeking to maintain a low profile compared to larger international sites. Indeed, many of the vendors on Tor Market in the early days were New Zealand-based and who only sold to local buyers.

The rising international listings on Tor Market may reflect wider problems in the darknet ecosystem, including the closure of previously dominant darknet markets and the unreliability of many sites due to denial-of-service attacks.

In the end, Tor Market’s success may be its undoing. It remains to be seen whether it can sustain its international growth and operate with a higher international profile, given the related risk of international law enforcement looking its way.

Chris Wilkins and Marta Rychert receive funding from the New Zealand Royal Society Te Apārangi Marsden Fund Grant MAU1812.

Marta Rychert receives funding from the New Zealand Royal Society Te Apārangi and NZ Health Research Council.

– ref. The dark web down under: what’s driving the rise and rise of NZ’s ‘Tor Market’ for illegal drugs? – https://theconversation.com/the-dark-web-down-under-whats-driving-the-rise-and-rise-of-nzs-tor-market-for-illegal-drugs-191658