Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

At the March 23 Tasmanian state election, the Liberals won 14 of the 35 lower house seats, Labor ten, the Greens five, the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) three and independents three. This leaves the Liberals four short of the 18 needed for a majority.

The independents are the re-elected left-wing Kristie Johnston, former Labor MP David O’Byrne and anti-salmon farm campaigner Craig Garland.

Before the distribution of preferences began after the postal receipt deadline passed last Tuesday, the Liberals had been expected to win 15 seats, but lost a seat to Garland in Braddon.

This means the JLN alone is not sufficient to get the 18 votes needed for a majority. The Liberals will need JLN and at least one independent, but all three independents have some left-wing views. Labor has already conceded the election.

At the 2021 election, the Liberals had won 13 of the then 25 seats, Labor nine, the Greens two and an independent one, for a bare Liberal majority. In May 2023, two Liberal MPs had defected to the crossbench and eventually caused this early election; neither was re-elected.

Tasmania uses five electorates that each return seven members. The quota for election is one-eighth of the vote, or 12.5%. I previously explained the Hare-Clark system that is used in Tasmanian elections.

Read more:
Liberals will win most seats in Tasmanian election, but be short of a majority

Electors vote for candidates, not parties, and this results in parties losing votes to leakage when their candidates are either elected (resulting in a surplus that needs to be distributed) or excluded. In contrast, lone independents cannot leak, but just gain votes during the distribution of preferences process.

The most interesting electorate was Braddon, where the Liberals started with 3.65 quotas, Labor 1.97, the JLN 0.91, the Greens 0.52 and Garland 0.40. But leakage from both the Liberals and Greens helped Garland to win the final Braddon seat. He had 0.64 quotas to 0.56 for the Greens when the Greens were excluded, and defeated the fourth Liberal by 0.88 quotas to 0.73.

In Franklin, the Liberals had started with 2.72 quotas, Labor 2.18, the Greens 1.58, the JLN 0.38 and O’Byrne 0.70. The Liberals won the final seat by 0.89 quotas to 0.76 for the Greens, with many left-wing votes going to O’Byrne, who made it to a full quota.

In Lyons, the Liberals started with 3.00 quotas, Labor 2.62, the Greens 0.86 and the JLN 0.66. Preferences from mostly right-wing others gave the JLN an easy win, as they finished with 0.96 quotas, to 0.93 for the Greens and 0.63 for Labor’s third candidate. The JLN and the Greens were elected to the final two seats.

Final statewide vote shares were 36.7% Liberals (down 12.1% since the 2021 election), 29.0% Labor (up 0.8%), 13.9% Greens (up 1.5%), 6.7% JLN (new), 8.0% independents (up 2.9%) and 5.7% others (up 0.2%).

There were two polls from uComms and Freshwater taken about a fortnight before the election that had Labor at about 23%. There were no late Tasmanian polls. There may have been late movement to Labor and against independents in the final two weeks, or the polls may have understated Labor’s support.

Federal YouGov poll: 51–49 to Labor

A national YouGov poll, conducted March 22–27 from a sample of 1,513, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the previous YouGov poll in early March. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up one), 32% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (down two), 7% One Nation (up one) and 10% for all Others (steady).

After jumping ten points in the previous poll, Albanese’s net approval dropped five points to -11, with 52% dissatisfied and 41% satisfied. Dutton’s net approval slipped one point to -11. Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 46–34, down from 48–34 previously.

Asked what aspect of Easter was most important, 37% said time off work, 27% celebrating the death and resurrection of Christ, 18% Easter eggs and 17% hot cross buns.

Newspoll aggregate data for January to March

The Australian released aggregate data on March 31 for the three Newspolls taken from late January to late March, from a combined sample size of 3,691. The Poll Bludger reported the biggest change in the state breakdowns from the November to December period was a slump for Labor in Western Australia from a 54–46 lead to a 51–49 deficit.

There were two other five-point movements against Labor in demographic breakdowns, with Labor’s lead among voters aged 18 to 34 narrowing from 66–34 to 61–39, and their lead with non-English speakers narrowing from 60–40 to 55–45.

Education breakdowns had Labor losing three points with no tertiary education voters to fall to a 50–50 tie, but gaining a point with the university educated to lead 55–45, while the TAFE educated remained at a 50–50 tie.

Morgan poll and additional Resolve questions

A national Morgan poll, conducted March 25–31 from a sample of 1,677, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous week. Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (down 0.5), 30% Labor (down 1.5), 15.5% Greens (up 1.5), 3.5% One Nation (down one), 9% independents (up 1.5) and 4.5% others (steady).

This is the highest support for the Greens in a Morgan poll since September 2023.

I previously covered the late March Resolve federal poll for Nine newspapers. In additional questions, 57% said there had been a rise in racism and religious intolerance as a result of the Israel-Gaza conflict, while 15% said there had not. By 56–19, respondents thought Australia needed stronger laws to ban hate speech on the basis of religion and faith.

By 74–4, respondents supported prosecuting those who engage in the malicious publication of private information online (“doxxing”) under a new federal criminal law.

Tammy Tyrrell quits JLN

On March 28, Tasmanian senator Tammy Tyrrell resigned from the Jacqui Lambie Network, but will remain a senator, sitting as an independent. This means Lambie herself is now the only JLN senator.

Tyrrell was elected in 2022, so her term does not end until June 2028 unless there is a double dissolution. Lidia Thorpe, who resigned from the Greens in February 2023, also has a term that ends in June 2028.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Difficult for Liberals to form government after final Tasmanian results – https://theconversation.com/difficult-for-liberals-to-form-government-after-final-tasmanian-results-226906

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Guy C. Charlton, Associate Professor, University of New England

Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown’s recent unsuccessful demand to have the central government repay the GST levied on property rates is the latest salvo in the battle over funding for local government in New Zealand.

It points to the topsy-turvy state of local government finance and the inability of central government to address local government financial and public policy concerns.

It’s also the result of poor decision-making by local governments to properly invest or adequately monitor their operating costs.

These problems hurt both ratepayers’ pocketbooks and quality of life. The issues also starve local governments of the funds they need to provide services and invest in important infrastructure.

But it doesn’t have to be this way. Central government can ease the burden on ratepayers while helping local government to balance the books. The question is: will it?

Rates are on the rise

Auckland has proposed, on average, a 13.75% increase in rates. The Wellington Regional Council is proposing a 19.8% increase and Lower Hutt has proposed a 16.9% increase starting July 1. Hamilton is proposing a 25.5% rate hike, while Buller District Council is proposing a 31.8% rates increase.

These increased rates are the result of inflationary pressures that have impacted local government operations. It is estimated the increase in operating costs and infrastructure will require councils to scrap or delay 20% of proposed projects.

Read more:
Don’t believe the backlash – the benefits of NZ investing more in cycling will far outweigh the costs

Like many local governments across the world, New Zealand’s local governments rely on property taxes to fund a major portion of their operations. However, local taxation has not risen despite increasing responsibilities and public expectations.

In February, S&P Global Ratings reported that local government rates had not increased as a percentage of the economy (around 2%) in the past 100 years. This is compared with central government taxation, which has gone up 200% in the same period.

Councils carrying the weight of national objectives

This lack of growth is particularly alarming given the increased obligations assigned to local governments under the Resource Management Act, Local Government Act 2002 and a host of other legislation.

The lack of alternate sources of funding and tax authority has led to an over-reliance on rates. Rates account for more than half of council funding.

Even with increased central government transfers, the needed investments and increased costs faced by local councils have created an unsustainable situation which has been papered over by local government debt.

As a consequence, local councils’ average debt levels are much higher than similarly rated northern European countries – about 180% of revenue.

At the same time, the central government has a comparatively low debt rate. According to the OECD, the debt in 2023 was 56.6% of GDP. This compares with a 120.8% on average across the OECD. Clearly, there is room for more central government involvement.

These problems are exacerbated by the government’s repeal of the Auckland petrol surcharge and the axing of Labour’s Three Waters reform. This reform would have amalgamated the 67 council-owned authorities managing drinking, waste and stormwater.

Supporters of the reforms argued larger entities would have the financial capacity to address underlying infrastructure deficiencies. Similarly, the Auckland region petrol tax was meant to fund infrastructure improvements and public transport alternatives.

But with the government’s unequivocal rejection of these local financing options, one wonders where sufficient funding to repair and replace ageing infrastructure will be sourced, much less the new infrastructure and services needed to meet the needs of a growing population.

Councils need to have the authority to enact accommodation levies, congestion charging, expanded tax incremental and development districts, tourist levies and sales and excise taxes, such as the recently removed petrol levy in Auckland, as well as increased access to GST funds.

Read more:
If we want to improve NZ’s freshwater quality, first we need to improve the quality of our democracy

The central government also needs to provide funding in lieu of rates on Crown property or allow local councils to charge rates on Crown land.

This would avoid the often unfair or strained use of targeted rates to raise funds which should be borne more generally by all taxpayers, as well as the odd “tax-on-a-tax” Auckland’s mayor was complaining about.

At the same time, the central government needs to increase transfers to local councils and provide additional funding that can be put toward particular policy objectives, such as the 2018 Provincial Growth Fund.

Poor funding puts communities at risk

The Future of Local Government report noted local government needs to deal with three different kinds of infrastructure: physical infrastructure (for example, roads, water and waste); social infrastructure (libraries and parks); and civic infrastructure (actions and practices that can leverage community engagement).

Funding shortfalls put these objectives at risk.

When New Zealand was first organised as a self-governing colony in 1853, the basic unit of government was considered to be local provinces and cities. Over time, policymakers appreciated the need to centralise policy and finance. This is reflected in the growth of the central government over the past 100 years.

However, centralisation and distance from on-the-ground problems have created the need for a new social compact. While central government finances are in relatively good shape, local governments have struggled.

This is unfair and counterproductive.

It does not recognise that New Zealanders move about the country in search of economic opportunity and quality of life. Their tax dollars should provide a basic level of local services and infrastructure.

Guy C. Charlton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. There is a ceiling on rate increases. It’s time to look for alternatives to local government funding – https://theconversation.com/there-is-a-ceiling-on-rate-increases-its-time-to-look-for-alternatives-to-local-government-funding-226493

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Karleen Gribble, Adjunct Associate Professor, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Western Sydney University

Parents are often faced with well-meaning opinions and conflicting advice about what to feed their babies.

The latest guidance from the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends formula-fed babies can switch to cow’s milk from six months. Australian advice says parents should wait until 12 months. No wonder some parents, and the health professionals who advise them, are confused.

So what do parents need to know about the latest advice? And when is cow’s milk an option?

Read more:
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What’s the updated advice?

Last year, the WHO updated its global feeding guideline for children under two years old. This included recommending babies who are partially or totally formula fed can have whole animal milks (for example, full-fat cow’s milk) from six months.

This recommendation was made after a systematic review of research by WHO comparing the growth, health and development of babies fed infant formula from six months of age with those fed pasteurised or boiled animal milks.

The review found no evidence the growth and development of babies who were fed infant formula was any better than that of babies fed whole, fresh animal milks.

The review did find an increase in iron deficiency anaemia in babies fed fresh animal milk. However, WHO noted this could be prevented by giving babies iron-rich solid foods daily from six months.

On the strength of the available evidence, the WHO recommended babies fed infant formula, alone or in addition to breastmilk, can be fed animal milk or infant formula from six months of age.

The WHO said that animal milks fed to infants could include pasteurised full-fat fresh milk, reconstituted evaporated milk, fermented milk or yoghurt. But this should not include flavoured or sweetened milk, condensed milk or skim milk.

Why is this controversial?

Australian government guidelines recommend “cow’s milk should not be given as the main drink to infants under 12 months”. This seems to conflict with the updated WHO advice. However, WHO’s advice is targeted at governments and health authorities rather than directly at parents.

The Australian dietary guidelines are under review and the latest WHO advice is expected to inform that process.

Read more:
Misleading food labels contribute to babies and toddlers eating too much sugar. 3 things parents can do

OK, so how about iron?

Iron is an essential nutrient for everyone but it is particularly important for babies as it is vital for growth and brain development. Babies’ bodies usually store enough iron during the final few weeks of pregnancy to last until they are at least six months of age. However, if babies are born early (prematurely), if their umbilical cords are clamped too quickly or their mothers are anaemic during pregnancy, their iron stores may be reduced.

Cow’s milk is not a good source of iron. Most infant formula is made from cow’s milk and so has iron added. Breastmilk is also low in iron but much more of the iron in breastmilk is taken up by babies’ bodies than iron in cow’s milk.

Babies should not rely on milk (including infant formula) to supply iron after six months. So the latest WHO advice emphasises the importance of giving babies iron-rich solid foods from this age. These foods include:

• meat
• eggs
• vegetables, including beans and green leafy vegetables
• pulses, including lentils
• ground seeds and nuts (such as peanut or other nut butters, but with no added salt or sugar).

You may have heard that giving babies whole cow’s milk can cause allergies. In fact, whole cow’s milk is no more likely to cause allergies than infant formula based on cow’s milk.

Read more:
Infant formula companies are behind the guidelines on milk allergy, and their sales are soaring

What are my options?

The latest WHO recommendation that formula-fed babies can switch to cow’s milk from six months could save you money. Infant formula can cost more than five times more than fresh milk ($2.25-$8.30 a litre versus $1.50 a litre).

For families who continue to use infant formula, it may be reassuring to know that if infant formula becomes hard to get due to a natural disaster or some other supply chain disruption fresh cow’s milk is fine to use from six months.

It is also important to know what has not changed in the latest feeding advice. WHO still recommends infants have only breastmilk for their first six months and then continue breastfeeding for up to two years or more. It is also still the case that infants under six months who are not breastfed or who need extra milk should be fed infant formula. Toddler formula for children over 12 months is not recommended.

All infant formula available in Australia must meet the same standard for nutritional composition and food safety. So, the cheapest infant formula is just as good as the most expensive.

Read more:
If you’re feeding with formula, here’s what you can do to promote your baby’s healthy growth

What’s the take-home message?

The bottom line is your baby can safely switch from infant formula to fresh, full-fat cow’s milk from six months as part of a healthy diet with iron-rich foods. Likewise, cow’s milk can also be used to supplement or replace breastfeeding from six months, again alongside iron-rich foods.

If you have questions about introducing solids your GP, child health nurse or dietitian can help. If you need support with breastfeeding or starting solids you can call the National Breastfeeding Helpline (1800 686 268) or a lactation consultant.

Karleen Gribble is a member of the Public Health Association of Australia, the World Public Health Nutrition Association and the Infant and Young Child Feeding in Emergencies Core Group. She is a volunteer breastfeeding educator and counsellor with the Australian Breastfeeding Association (ABA) and Project Lead on ABA’s Community Protection for Infants and Young Children in Bushfire Emergencies Project.

Naomi Hull is a member of the Australian Breastfeeding Association and the Public Health Association of Australia. She is also an executive on the Infant and Toddler Food Research Alliance and the National Coordinator for the World Breastfeeding Trends Initiative Australia.

Nina Chad has been the Infant and Young Child Feeding Consultant for the World Health Organization since 2021. She is a member of the Public Health Association of Australia, the World Public Health Nutrition Association and the Australian Breastfeeding Association.

– ref. When can my baby drink cow’s milk? It’s sooner than you think – https://theconversation.com/when-can-my-baby-drink-cows-milk-its-sooner-than-you-think-227044

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steve Worthington, Adjunct Professor, Swinburne University of Technology

If you’ve ever taken money out at an Australian ATM, been handed $20 change at a supermarket or paid someone in cash, you’ve probably used the services of Armaguard.

Owned by Linfox Group, Armaguard is Australia’s largest currency transport business, servicing about 90% of the cash-in-transit market.

But the company is struggling. Use of cash as a means of payment has declined sharply in recent years, a trend that was only turbocharged by the pandemic. Last year, Armaguard said it would need a $190 million lifeline over the next three years in order to stay afloat.

Read more:
The move to a cashless society isn’t just a possibility, it’s well underway

Last week, the company rejected a A$26 million rescue offer put together by some of Australia’s biggest banks and retailers, which would have required it to open its books. Instead, it opted for a smaller A$10 million package from its parent company Linfox that will see it through the next few weeks.

But the company’s future remains far from certain, worrying the Reserve Bank.

Why is “physical money” still important, and what could Australia learn from countries who’ve already gone cashless?

Cash-in-transit at a dead end?

Australian cash use has fallen off a cliff over the past decade. Consumers have moved overwhelmingly toward paying by card, now often facilitated by digital
wallets on phones or watches.

As a result, there are now far fewer bank branches and ATMs operating in Australia. Between 2017 and 2023, bank branch numbers declined by 37% and the number of bank-owned ATMs fell from 13,814 to just 5,693.

According to the Australian Banking Association, cash is now only being used for about 13% of payments, a 57% decline since 2017.

Moving cash around was already expensive – the sheer size of the Australian continent means it has to be transported securely over huge distances. The fall in cash usage has further increased the unit cost of this process.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has outlined an alarming “cash-use cycle”, showing that if cash usage continues to fall, it could become uneconomic for banks and other ATM providers to offer cash services in some regional areas.

With permission from the ACCC, Armaguard acquired its main competitor Prosegur in June last year, arguing the merger would allow it to continue offering cash-in-transit services to all locations both companies had served.

But Armaguard has claimed it is still sustaining larger-than-expected losses, citing a structural reduction in demand for cash-in-transit services.

Having now accepted a A$10 million lifeline from its parent company, Armaguard will continue to operate all of its cash-in-transit services for the moment. But it remains to be seen what extra financial support it will be able leverage from the businesses it currently services.

Why do we need cash to survive?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has a vested interest in maintaining cash as a store of wealth and means of payment for many people, particularly as a backup option when electronic payment systems are unavailable or offline.

As RBA governor Michelle Bullock explained in a recent speech:

For these reasons, the RBA places a high priority on the community continuing to have reasonable access to cash withdrawal and deposit services.

The Reserve Bank is keeping a close eye on the negotiations to keep Armaguard afloat, having previously floated the idea of an industry “cooperative model”.

This would see major cash users like banks form a cooperative entity to replace private sector suppliers like Armaguard.

Such models already exist in European countries. In the United Kingdom, the Link network connects almost all of the country’s ATMs and allows consumers to withdraw cash regardless of who they bank with.

Link is a not-for-profit organisation jointly owned by its members, who all issue cards used in its ATMs.

Read more:
Cash may no longer be king, but the Optus debacle shows it is still necessary

Lessons from overseas

Much further down the road than Australia on this journey, Sweden has become one of the most cashless societies in the world. But this has prompted a degree of backlash in the country.

The governor of the Swedish Central Bank, the Riksbank, recently called for urgent legislation to protect both notes and coins as a payment option for Swedes:

Cash is needed to avoid people suffering digital and financial exclusion.

The Riksbank says the banks should be mandated to accept deposits of banknotes and coins and ensure their customers can withdraw cash from both branches and ATMs.

In a recent report, the Riksbank also pointed out there is currently only one private company in Sweden providing a cash-in-transit service, creating a potential point of vulnerability.

It called for collaboration between the Riksbank and Sweden’s commercial banks on ensuring that cash could still be transported if the current system ever broke down.

Importantly, Sweden offers an example of how the true death of cash will ultimately sound alarm bells. Faced with this, central banks and governments can bend to popular opinion and legislate for cash’s survival.

Steve Worthington does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Money transporter Armaguard is in peril. Could cash be dead sooner than we think? – https://theconversation.com/money-transporter-armaguard-is-in-peril-could-cash-be-dead-sooner-than-we-think-226957

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Leoni Connah, Lecturer in Government, Flinders University

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is favoured to win a third term in office when the country holds its massive general election, starting on April 19.

While there are many questions about what another Modi term could mean for the country, residents in the Muslim-majority northern region of Kashmir are particularly apprehensive.

Modi visited the Kashmir capital, Srinagar, in early March in a bid to win Kashmiri hearts and minds – his first visit since his government controversially stripped the region of its semi-autonomous status in 2019.

Amid a heavy security presence, Modi promised over US$774 million (A$1.2 billion) worth of development projects to boost the economy and tourism in the region.

Whether this is enough to placate Kashmiri voters remains to be seen. Many residents have been made to feel like second-class citizens under Modi’s Hindu nationalist government and have dim views that things will improve if he wins another term in office.

Read more:
Narendra Modi’s economy isn’t booming for India’s unemployed youth. So, why is his party favoured to win another election?

Autonomy revoked

Since Modi was sworn in as India’s 14th prime minister in 2014, he has taken a decidedly muscular approach to Kashmir.

Pledging to quell a rebel movement that has been fighting the Indian state since the 1980s, his government heavily increased its security presence in the region and launched a special operation to root out Kashmir’s terrorist cells.

Then, in a watershed moment for the region in 2019, his government revoked Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, which had granted special privileges to local residents and gave the region its own constitution and flag and the ability to make its own laws.

Modi also redefined domicile rules, making it easier for non-Kashmiris to obtain jobs, land and permanent residency in the region.

The scrapping of Article 370 was recently upheld by the Supreme Court, a key victory for Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) before the election.

Human rights abuses and crackdowns on civil liberties have also worsened in the region since 2014. This has included draconian clampdowns on the internet and other communications, strict curfews and the detentions of activists and journalists.

As part of my PhD research in 2020-21, I conducted online interviews with numerous Kashmiris in Srinagar and the surrounding areas and found the revocation of Article 370 had taken away any hope they had and led to a overwhelming sense of betrayal.

Some struggled to describe their feelings, while others said the move was completely unconstitutional and a political disaster. My interview participants said there were protests all over Kashmir after the revocation, but according to one working in journalism, these were very much underreported at the time.

Since then, Modi has done very little to address concerns that Kashmiris may have for their future. Instead, he is actively encouraging development projects and tourism in the region, raising fears about his party’s settler-colonial ambitions in Kashmir, particularly the Kashmir Valley.

Read more:
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Can local elections bring change?

Elections for Kashmir’s legislature are also expected to take place by September. The region has not had a local government since the revocation of its special status in 2019; since then it has been directly ruled by New Delhi.

If local elections do go ahead, this may be seen as an attempt by New Delhi to show some normalcy in the region and demonstrate the central government’s dedication to reinstating a fully functioning democracy. It may also result in Kashmiris feeling more included and involved in wider Indian politics.

However, in his recent visit to Srinagar, Modi failed to mention the likelihood of the local elections, which adds the feelings his government is ignoring the grievances of residents. These include the effects of the revocation of Article 370, the limited economic prospects in the region, and the treatment of Muslim Kashmiris in the rest of India.

Further, the area still remains heavily militarised, raising the question of just how successful Modi has been in uniting Kashmir with the rest of India, especially since Kashmiris still do not have the same freedoms and liberties as other Indians.

Many Kashmiris also fear the spread of disinformation prior to the election, especially if it propagates negative stereotypes associating residents with terrorist organisations. This could have a negative impact on Kashmiri political parties, discrediting their status as representatives of the Kashmiri people.

Kashmir’s future

It is important to note Modi’s support not only comes from the Hindu majority. Some Muslims in Kashmir will support the BJP due to tribal caste reasons, as well as for the belief the party could bring more jobs or economic prospects to the region.

Nonetheless, many Kashmiris believe a continuation of BJP leadership could result in additional human rights abuses, the loss of land or jobs to outsiders from the south and further alienation from the central government.

Ultimately, if Modi wins an unprecedented third term, this will cement the decisions that have already been in the region. And this means the future for many Kashmiris will remain bleak in what is purported to be the world’s largest democracy.

Leoni Connah does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. In heavily militarised Kashmir, the upcoming India elections do not inspire much hope – https://theconversation.com/in-heavily-militarised-kashmir-the-upcoming-india-elections-do-not-inspire-much-hope-225281

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tahereh Alinejadtabrizi, PhD student, Monash University

The Southern Ocean is renowned for having the cleanest air on Earth. But the precise reasons why have remained a mystery, until now.

There’s more to it than just a lack of human activity. Yes, there are fewer people down there using industrial chemicals and burning fossil fuels. But there are natural sources of fine particles too, such as salt from sea spray or dust whipped up by the wind.

Regardless of origin, fine solid particles or liquid droplets suspended in air are known as “aerosols”. We consider clean air to have low levels of aerosols, without discriminating between natural or industrial sources.

Our recent research discovered clouds and rain play a crucial role in scrubbing the atmosphere clean.

Understanding the role of clouds and rain

Aerosol levels over the Southern Ocean are influenced by a range of factors. These include the amount of salt spray and seasonal variation in the growth of tiny plant-like organisms called phytoplankton, which are a source of airborne sulphate particles.

Fewer sulphates are produced during winter, which is when the air over the Southern Ocean is most pristine.

But that’s not the full story. The Southern Ocean is also the cloudiest place on Earth. It experiences short-lived, sporadic showers like nowhere else. We wanted to understand the role of clouds and rain in cleaning the air.

The biggest barrier to understanding these processes has always been the lack of high-quality observations of clouds, rainfall and aerosols in this poorly observed region of the world.

Thankfully, a new generation of satellites allows us to study images of clouds in unprecedented detail. We developed a computer program to recognise different cloud patterns over a vast area of the Southern Ocean.

In particular we were on the lookout for distinctive honeycomb-shaped patterns in the cloud field. These honeycomb-like clouds are of great interest because they have a major role in regulating the climate.

When the honeycomb cell is filled with cloud or “closed” it is whiter and brighter, reflecting more sunlight back to space. So these clouds help keep the Earth cool.

Empty or “open” honeycomb cells, on the other hand, let more sunlight in.

These intricacies remain a source of error in modelling the Earth’s climate because they are not being properly included. It’s important to get the balance of open and closed cells right, or the results can be way off.

Whether the honeycomb cells are open or closed also relates to the amount of rainfall they can produce.

The cells are big enough to be seen from space, around 40-60km in diameter. So we can study them using satellite images.

Our research is particularly timely given this month’s launch of a cloud and precipitation experiment at Kennaook/Cape Grim in Tasmania. It aims to get higher resolution data on clouds, rain and sunlight.

Read more:
Forty years of measuring the world’s cleanest air reveals human fingerprints on the atmosphere

Scrubbing aerosols out of the sky

We compared the honeycomb cloud patterns with measurements of aerosols from the Kennaook/Cape Grim observatory and also with the Bureau of Meteorology’s rainfall observations from a nearby rain gauge.

Our results showed days with the cleanest air were associated with the presence of open honeycomb cloud. We think this is because these clouds generate sporadic but intense rain showers, which seem to “wash” the aerosol particles out of the air.

It’s somewhat counter-intuitive, but it turns out the open cells contain more moisture and produce more rain than the fluffy white closed cells filled with cloud. We found the open honeycomb clouds produce six times as much rain as the closed ones.

So what looks like less cloudy weather by satellite actually triggers the most effective rain showers for washing the aerosols out. Whereas the filled or closed honeycomb pattern, which looks cloudier, is less effective. That was one of the more surprising aspects of our findings.

We found the empty honeycombs to be far more common during the winter months, when the air is cleanest.

We also wanted to know what makes cloud fields look the way they do. Our analysis suggests large-scale weather systems control the pattern of the cloud field. As unruly storms track across the Southern Ocean, they produce these open and closed cells.

Read more:
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Fresh air and better climate models

Our research has added a new piece to the puzzle of why the Southern Ocean has the world’s cleanest air. Rainfall is the key, especially rain from these clear, open honeycomb cell-type clouds. We were first to discover they are truly responsible for cleaning up all the air flowing over the Southern Ocean.

These honeycomb patterns are also found in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific regions during winter. So our work will also help explain how these clouds remove aerosols including dust and pollution in these locations. And our findings will help improve climate models, enabling more accurate predictions.

Rain scrubs the aerosols out of the sky in much the same way as a washing machine acts to clean clothes.

After the cold front comes through, the air is clean. If you’re wintering on the south coast of Australia, you can breathe in the benefits as this fresh air comes in off the Southern Ocean.

We would like to acknowledge the valuable contributions of CSIRO, ANSTO and the Bureau of Meteorology to this research.

Read more:
More than 200 scientists from 19 countries want to tell us the Southern Ocean is in trouble

Steven Siems receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Reef Restoration and Adaptation Program.
Steven Siems is a co-chair of the World Meteorological Organisation Expert Team on Weather Modification

Yi Huang receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Reef Restoration and Adaptation Program, and Joyce Lambert Antarctic Research Grants.

Tahereh Alinejadtabrizi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The Southern Ocean has the cleanest air on Earth. We have just discovered why – https://theconversation.com/the-southern-ocean-has-the-cleanest-air-on-earth-we-have-just-discovered-why-226811

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kimberley Reid, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Atmospheric Sciences, Monash University

Headlines declaring a “Black Nor’easter” appeared this week as New South Wales and Queensland copped heavy rain – and residents have been warned to brace for more.

The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting a 75% chance of Sydney receiving at least 50mm of rain, and a 25% chance of at least 100mm of rain on Friday (the average rainfall for the entire month of April in Sydney is 121.5mm).

Parts of Sydney were drenched in more than 100mm of rain overnight and the main dam that supplies the city’s drinking water is expected to spill in coming days. At least one man has died in Queensland floodwaters after torrential rain.

You might be wondering: what is a Black Nor’easter, what’s causing all this rain and does it have anything to do with climate change? I’m an atmospheric scientist who researches atmospheric rivers, extreme rainfall and climate change. Here’s what you need to know.

Read more:
Like rivers in the sky: the weather system bringing floods to Queensland will become more likely under climate change

A wavy atmosphere leads to wild weather

Nor’easter simply means the wind comes from the northeast and black refers to the thunderstorm clouds likely to darken the sky.

Pirate-esque poetry aside, this type of weather system is not that unusual for this time of year, and technically the weather system started in the south.

But to understand the bigger question of why the east coast is copping all this rain, you need to remember the atmosphere is a fluid.

That means the same laws of physics that apply to water in the ocean also apply to air in the atmosphere. Like the ocean, the atmosphere has waves that break.

The jet stream is a current of fast winds about 10km high that blows from west to east and steers high and low pressure systems around the planet.

High pressure systems tend to bring clear skies and sunny weather, while low pressure systems are associated with clouds and rain.

But when the jet stream becomes wavy or even breaks, the high and low pressure systems can veer off course.

Like sea spray blowing off an ocean wave as it breaks, a low pressure system can blow off an atmospheric wave, as seen in the video below:

What causes a long stretch of intense weather?

When a high or low breaks away from the jet stream, it can become “stuck”, leading to a stretch of wet weather or a stretch of hot weather.

The worst heatwaves are caused by high pressure systems stalling.

Conversely, some of the worst floods in the world are caused by low pressure systems being cut off from the jet stream and dumping rain in one place for multiple days.

The map below shows the cut-off low and blocked high over eastern Australia.

Like toothpaste in a tube, the air between the high and low is being squeezed along a narrow path (the purple arrow in the map above).

Since the air is coming from the Coral Sea, the air is warm and humid. This narrow region of enhanced moisture in the air is called an “atmospheric river”.

This atmospheric river acts like a hose, feeding moist air into the low. There, the atmospheric moisture is converted to rainfall.

We have seen this before

This is the exact weather set up that caused the devastating floods in Lismore and other places in February to March 2022.

In fact, a recent study showed 72% of all heavy rainfall events over the eastern seaboard are caused by this same weather set up.

That said, we are unlikely to see the same devastating impacts we did in 2022.

The stalled systems causing the current wild weather are forecast to move away after two days. By contrast, the set up that caused the torrential rain in 2022 persisted for three and a half days. It may not sound like a big difference but to atmospheric scientists, it is.

The atmospheric river associated with the current event is also weaker, so there is less moisture in the air to turn into rainfall.

How will climate change affect these weather events?

Recent research found an increase in the intensity of rain from short (less than an hour long) downpours over Sydney.

Another study has shown the atmospheric moisture over Sydney is projected to increase by the end of the century.

However, the representation of certain weather systems in climate models isn’t good enough yet.

Since we are missing this key part of the puzzle, it’s still uncertain how heavy rainfall over eastern Australia may change in the future.

Recent funding to research on this topic and developments in powerful, high definition models should improve our understanding of how these weather events may change in the future.

In the meantime, for those about to face the current deluge, heed warnings from the SES and the Bureau.

Never drive through flood waters and if the sky does turn black, put your headlights on.

Read more:
Here’s why climate change isn’t always to blame for extreme rainfall

Kimberley Reid receives funding from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.

– ref. Why is Australia’s east coast copping all this rain right now? An atmospheric scientist explains – https://theconversation.com/why-is-australias-east-coast-copping-all-this-rain-right-now-an-atmospheric-scientist-explains-227158

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Tregear, Principal Fellow and Professor of Music, The University of Melbourne

Major anniversaries of works of art present us with an opportunity to engage in cultural stocktaking. We are invited to take a moment to contemplate and celebrate the basis of their lasting significance.

April 7 2024 presents one such opportunity; it is exactly 200 years from the first performance of Ludwig van Beethoven’s Missa Solemnis, or “Solemn Mass”.

Today, the Missa Solemnis is generally considered to be one of the most remarkable works of Christian liturgical (relating to public worship) music ever conceived. It is also a summation of Beethoven’s mature compositional style.

A self-consciously great work

Beethoven’s initial excuse for composing the Missa Solemnis had been a commission in 1819 for a Mass to accompany the enthronement of his friend, patron and composition pupil, Archduke Rudolph, as the archbishop of Olmütz (now Olomouc, Czech Republic). But he became so engrossed in the creative challenge that he ran some three years late in finishing it.

In part, this was because he seemed very aware of its potential to be a work of lasting significance. He later claimed to his publishers it was also his best composition. His favourite (and most famous) portrait shows him in the act of writing it.

A masterpiece you’ve likely never heard

Why, however, is the Missa Solemnis also one of Beethoven’s lesser-recognised and performed works today? One reason is mounting a performance is not for the faint-hearted. At some 90 minutes in length, calling for about 100 highly skilled musicians, it presents a host of logistical and musical challenges.

It also seems, at least at first, to have a potentially uncomfortable relationship with its original liturgical purpose, which was to accompany a full Catholic service of Holy Communion.

However, the period of the Mass’s composition, roughly 1818–1823, was also a period in European history where there was a profound shift away from established religion’s central role in public and private life. This is perhaps reflected in the fact the Missa Solemnis defied, in both its form and content, conventional expectations at the time of what this kind of Mass setting should be.

Perhaps the most famous example is the way Beethoven sets the closing “Dona nobis pacem”, the traditional closing prayer for peace. Heard initially in the liturgically correct place, these words then initiate one of Beethoven’s famous extended codas (or closing passages) to give voice to what he described as a “Bitte um innern und äussern Frieden”, or prayer for inner and outer peace.

Beethoven goes on to highlight, ironically and very dramatically, the disasters of war. And he had good reason to, having experienced first-hand some of the horrors of the Napoleonic wars.

Also, by the time Beethoven composed the Mass he was close to being profoundly deaf. As a result, his music became less concerned with the practicalities (and indeed limits) of performance. He was now realising on paper what he heard in his imagination and seemed to have felt more free to explore the extremes of conventional musical expression.

Read more:
We used DNA from Beethoven’s hair to shed light on his poor health – and stumbled upon a family secret

An overt struggle between form and function

While Beethoven made a detailed study of the Mass settings of earlier masters, such as those by Giovanni Pierluigi da Palestrina, he also knew he could not simply follow their example. He said:

It would be a folly to imitate Palestrina’s language unless its spirit and world of religious thought lives within us.

A century later, German critic Paul Bekker wrote Beethoven instead broke through the walls of musical tradition and liturgical dogma “which divide the church from the world”. Indeed, the Missa Solemnis has been almost exclusively performed as a concert piece, despite Beethoven himself intending for it to be performed as part of an actual Mass service.

But all these aspects can also be considered a part of, and not necessarily in opposition to, the work’s underlying religious sensibility.

The score of the Missa Solemnis embodies much of what we have come to label as a “Late Style”. This category of creative output tends to emerge from an artist towards the end of their life. Late Style works are commonly infused with an awareness of impending death, as well as speculation about the limits of artistic expression itself.

An emblematic example might be the way Beethoven sets the text “Et vitam venturi sæculi. Amen” (“[…] and the life of the world to come, Amen”) from the closing passage of the Mass’s Credo (Creed) movement.

While Beethoven at first takes up the tradition of setting these words with a concluding flourish of musical counterpoint, he then proceeds to do so to a technically extreme degree.

Not for nothing did British musicologist Sir Donald Tovey later describe this as “the most difficult choral passage ever written”. It sounds deliberately overproduced, as if Beethoven wishes to convey both a mood affirmation and doubt – perhaps similar to the supplicant in St Mark’s Gospel who declares: “Lord I believe, forgive my unbelief”.

Even what might at first seem to be an outwardly conservative setting, such as the Mass’s opening Kyrie Eleison prayer (“Lord have mercy upon us, Christ have mercy upon us, Lord have mercy upon us”), draws us into such a mode of contemplation. Here, the Mass’s grandiloquent music contains a more urgent, anxious, prayer as the text changes to “Christ have mercy”.

It expresses both tremendous religious yearning, but also battles with that yearning – and ultimately does not find peace with it. As the opening sequence of 1994 film Immortal Beloved imaginatively depicts, this movement was also performed at Beethoven’s funeral in 1827.

An enduring message

This direct engagement with doubt as an inevitable companion to expressions of faith is, I suspect, a key reason why Beethoven’s Missa Solemnis can still speak directly to us across the centuries. Just as Beethoven himself wished: “from the heart to the heart again”.

On Sunday, 200 years to the day, more than 100 musicians will join to commemorate the anniversary of Missa Solemnis with a liturgical performance at St Paul’s Cathedral in Melbourne.

In this way, we hope to bring renewed attention to the powerful amalgam of traditional ritual, musical force and theological questioning that lies at the heart of this great work.

The author is conducting the Missa Solemnis on April 7 2024 as part of a service of communion at St Paul’s Cathedral, Melbourne.

– ref. The ‘Missa Solemnis’ at 200: Beethoven was close to deaf when he wrote his self-proclaimed best work – https://theconversation.com/the-missa-solemnis-at-200-beethoven-was-close-to-deaf-when-he-wrote-his-self-proclaimed-best-work-227148

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Gaunson, Associate Professor in Cinema Studies, RMIT University

Since Australia first began producing feature films, it has returned time and again to the subject of the first world war. Before Dawn, out in cinemas today, is the latest in this long line of productions.

Based on the real-life war diaries of ANZACS, many of which are held at the Australian War Memorial in Canberra, the film retells how Australian forces helped secure positions from which an attack on the Hindenburg Line could be launched.

As this has been written into history as one of Australia’s great contributions to the attack of the Western Front, the film provides an important essay on the human sacrifice the ANZACS made during WWI.

A sombre portrait of war

The Germans constructed the Hindenburg Line, also known as the Siegfriedstellung or “Siegfried Position” in German, as a defensive fortification on the Western Front in France during the winter of 1916–1917. Stretching between the towns of Arras and Laffaux in the country’s north, it served as a formidable barrier against Allied offensives.

The Hindenburg Line has been portrayed in various films, offering different national viewpoints. Most recently, director Sam Mendes’ 1917 (2019) depicts it from the British perspective, while Edward Berger’s 2022 film All Quiet on the Western Front provides insight from a German standpoint.

Similar to All Quiet on the Western Front, Before Dawn downplays the celebration of victory and nationalist sacrifice by instead providing a sombre portrait of the horrors of combat.

By the time Armistice Day arrives on November 11 1918, marking the end of the war, it is hardly a victory for the soldiers. Rather, it is a moment to absorb the trauma the living now carry, as they are literally surrounded by the corpses of their dead mates.

This portrayal comes through the fictionalised story of teenager Jim Collins (played by Levi Miller), who voluntarily leaves his family-run sheep station to join the ANZAC.

A young man’s film through and through

This backstory alone makes for an obvious comparison between Before Dawn and Peter Weir’s seminal film Gallipoli (1981). Both films depict the story of an 18-year-old stockman from Western Australia. That said, it would seem a little unfair to compare Before Dawn with the quality and emotional gravitas of Gallipoli.

Read more:
Peter Weir’s Gallipoli 40 years on: deftly directed and still devastating

By the time Weir directed his war epic he was well experienced, 38 years old and with four feature director credits under his belt. He also had experienced talent at his disposal, most notably screenwriter David Williamson, cinematographer Russell Boyd and actor Mel Gibson (hot off the heels of George Miller’s Mad Max 1 and 2).

In contrast, the director of Before Dawn is Jordon Prince-Wright, who is in his twenties. He worked with relatively inexperienced talent, including upcoming Aussie actors Levi Miller, Travis Jeffrey, Ed Oxenbould and Stephen Peacocke.

Prince-Wright’s prior credits include 2018 film The Decadent and Depraved, an independent western genre film set in outback colonial Western Australia.

Before Dawn was exclusively filmed in regional Western Australia – primarily on about 34 hectares of land near the beach town of Esperance. An extensive set was built to recreate the trenches and battlegrounds of Flanders, Belgium. Originally scheduled to begin in June 2020, the production team postponed filming for a year due to the pandemic.

Prince-Wright shares screenwriting duties with Jarrad Russell, who is receiving his first screenwriting feature credit on the film. It is also the first feature credit for cinematographer Daniel Quinn.

Before Dawn is certainly a young man’s film, both in what is being represented as well as in the cast and crew behind the production. This seems somewhat apt since, during WWI, the largest proportion of men fighting was comprised of 18 and 19 year olds.

Ambitious work

While you can’t deny the enthusiasm and ambition of the production team, the film does fall short of evoking the necessary empathy. It relies too heavily on composer Sean Tinnion’s overstated musical score to provide emotional weight.

Furthermore, despite more than 100 Aboriginal soldiers also serving on the front lines on the Western Front, Before Dawn is yet another production depicting Australian WWI soldiers as exclusively white men. The contribution of Aboriginal soldiers during WWI is yet to be satisfactorily fictionalised on the screen.

Despite these faults and oversights, Before Dawn offers an account of the important sacrifice Australia made in assisting the Commonwealth during the war. Coupled with other sources, it could function well as a teaching text for students learning about the Hindenburg Line.

Correction: this article originally stated the director was 19. This has been amended.

Read more:
War movies are big earners. What does that say about us?

Stephen Gaunson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Before Dawn: young Aussie director’s new film is a sombre recount of the ANZACs’ sacrifice – https://theconversation.com/before-dawn-young-aussie-directors-new-film-is-a-sombre-recount-of-the-anzacs-sacrifice-224243

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laurence Don Wai Luu, Lecturer and Chancellor’s Research Fellow, School of Life Sciences, University of Technology Sydney

Australia is facing a whooping cough outbreak. Some 2,799 cases were recorded in the first three months of 2024. Cases are highest in Queensland and New South Wales, with more than 1,000 recorded in each state.

The last time Queensland recorded more than 1,000 cases in three months was the first quarter of 2013. This was at the tail end of a significant outbreak that spanned 2008 until 2012 – Australia’s largest reported outbreak since the widespread introduction of whooping cough vaccines in the 1950s. More than 140,000 cases were recorded during this period, with the number peaking at 38,748 in 2011.

There was a smaller outbreak between 2014 and 2017, with more than 60,000 cases in these years.

So what is whooping cough, why are cases rising now, and how can you protect yourself?

It’s most dangerous for babies

Whooping cough is a serious and highly contagious respiratory disease. Also called pertussis, it’s caused by the bacteria Bordetella pertussis.

The initial symptoms of whooping cough resemble other cold and flu-like symptoms. These include runny nose, sneezing, mild cough and fever. However, as the disease progresses into the second week, the coughing fits become worse and more frequent. After or between bouts of coughing, patients may gasp for air and produce the characteristic “whoop” noise.

The disease is also sometimes called the “100-day cough” as it can last for 6–12 weeks. It’s especially serious and can be life-threatening in newborns who are yet to receive their vaccinations. In older children who are fully vaccinated, as well as adolescents and adults, the disease is normally less severe. However, even in adults, the coughing can lead to fractured ribs.

Read more:
Respiratory infections like whooping cough and flu have plummeted amid COVID. But ‘bounce back’ is a worry

Antibiotics are used to treat whooping cough but are most effective when given during the initial stages of the illness. The best protection in the first instance is vaccination, which prevents most cases of serious illness, and reduces the spread of whooping cough in the community.

It’s recommended children are given six doses of a whooping cough vaccine (which is combined with vaccines for other diseases) between the ages of roughly two months and 13 years. Vaccination is free under the National Immunisation Program for children and pregnant women. Vaccinating women against whooping cough during pregnancy protects newborns in their first months of life.

Immunity from these vaccines wanes over time, so it’s also recommended adults receive a booster, particularly those who may come into frequent contact with babies.

Why are cases rising now?

Whooping cough outbreaks generally occur every 3–4 years. Due to COVID measures such as border closures, social isolation and masks, the number of cases declined dramatically during 2020–23. If trends had followed the usual outbreak cycle, this might have been around the time we’d have seen another outbreak.

Missed routine whooping cough vaccinations at the height of the pandemic may mean Australia is more vulnerable now. Reduced immunity in the population could be one of the reasons we’re seeing a rise in whooping cough cases in Australia and other countries including the United Kingdom and the United States.

In Australia, cases have been particularly high during this outbreak in children aged 10–14.

A potential superbug

Over the past two decades, whooping cough has been getting better at evading vaccines and antibiotics. Most vaccines used in Australia and other developed countries stimulate your immune system to recognise and target three to five components of the bacteria.

Over time, the bacteria that causes whooping cough has been slowly acquiring mutations in these genes. These mutations make the bacteria look slightly different to the one used in the vaccine, helping it better hide from the immune system.

Most of these changes were small. But in 2008, a new strain appeared in Australia that no longer produced pertactin, one of the components targeted by the vaccine. This means your immune system, like a detective, has one less clue to recognise the bacteria.

This new strain rapidly increased from 5% of strains found in 2008, to become the dominant strain in less than ten years, making up 90% of strains by 2017. This pertactin-negative strain was shown to survive better in vaccinated mice and may have contributed to the high number of cases in the 2008–12 outbreak.

Worryingly, since 2013, antibiotic-resistant strains of whooping cough have become widespread in China. While there are other antibiotics available, these are not recommended for infants younger than two months (the age group at most risk of serious disease). These resistant strains are increasingly spreading through Asia but are not yet in Australia.

Read more:
Low vaccination and immunity rates mean NZ faces a harsh whooping cough winter – what needs to happen

What next?

It’s too early to know how big this outbreak will be or what strains are responsible for it. Greater tracking of whooping cough strains, like we do with COVID, is needed to inform future vaccine design and treatments.

Importantly, although the bacteria is evolving, current vaccines are still very effective at preventing serious disease and reducing transmission. They remain our best tool to limit this outbreak.

To protect oneself, vulnerable newborns, and the wider community, everyone should ensure they are up-to-date with their whooping cough vaccinations. You can check this with your GP if you’re not sure. And anyone with cold or flu-like symptoms should stay away from infants.

Laurence Don Wai Luu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Whooping cough is surging in Australia. Why, and how can we protect ourselves? – https://theconversation.com/whooping-cough-is-surging-in-australia-why-and-how-can-we-protect-ourselves-226918

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Simon Wright, Senior Research Fellow, Energy & Circularity, Gulbali Institute, Charles Sturt University

Connecting cheap, clean energy from renewables comes with a hidden cost and challenge: building 5,000 kilometres of new transmission lines this decade, and another 5,000km after that. This sounds like a lot, but 5,000km is only around 10% of the existing grid network, and unlocks more than 32 gigawatts of new clean energy capacity by 2030.

The problem is, communities are often not sold on having to host new transmission lines. As the recent review of community engagement by renewable and transmission companies demonstrates, this is because it wasn’t explained well to these communities as to why it’s needed and how they can benefit.

We already know uncertainty undermines the social license for big projects. And we know public engagement is vital in translating national policies into local impacts.

In my research, I work with RE-Alliance, a community organisation working to help local communities actually benefit from the energy transition. In the course of this research, rural residents often say they would like to host wind turbines on their property. But we have seen those same residents oppose new transmission line projects – without realising the wind farm will not be viable without this infrastructure.

When these projects succeed, it’s because developers engage early and often with communities, showing them why the project matters to society – and to them.

Projects are much more likely to succeed when communities feel the project is theirs or includes them.

Community pushback could scupper the green transition

Community scepticism is not unique to Australia.

More than two-thirds of Americans favour renewables over fossil fuels. But when it comes to actually building them, opposition is common. Around 300 wind, solar and transmission projects are being delayed by local opposition, stalling A$132 billion of investments and 74,000 jobs.

In some respects this is understandable. Communities can bristle if they feel a project is imposed on them – especially if it feels like a cost without benefits.

Developers who engage with communities from the beginning and work to tackle concerns and issues collectively have a better chance of success. Equitable sharing of benefits can help.

Focus on local benefits

Almost 20 new renewable projects are planned in Victoria’s Wimmera Southern Mallee region near the Grampians. Until now, solar farms in this flat, sunny region have been hamstrung by a lack of transmission lines. But some local residents are strongly sceptical of transmission projects, which means some renewable projects can’t proceed.

Even so, progress is being made, due in part to the efforts of regional development organisation, Wimmera Southern Mallee Development, to broker between community and developers. As the organisation’s CEO Chris Souness told me:

Renewable energy will thrive [in this region] if developers and communities collaborate, the interests of the farming communities and rural towns are supported, and the benefits flow to communities.

The region is in need of jobs, more diverse industries, workforce reskilling, and better housing stock. These are all things renewable and transmission projects can help provide.

Read more:
A clean energy grid means 10,000km of new transmission lines. They can only be built with community backing

It’s a similar story in the South West Renewable Energy Zone in New South Wales, one of several laid out by the state government to boost efficiency by grouping big solar and wind projects with existing or new transmission lines.

The zone has led to a renewable gold rush, as developers scout for good locations. But what does it mean for people? The Hay Shire Council last year asked its 3,000 residents what they thought.

The council took the lead on consultation to increase community influence and make clear to renewable developers what the community does and does not want. The alternative was to have many developers running their own consultation efforts.

The consultation revealed some residents felt overwhelmed by the interest from developers. Others worried wind and solar farms could damage the local environment. Would there be enough housing for workers, given the existing housing crisis? And what about the visual impact of large transmission lines? In the consultation document, council staff note:

It is very important that the development of renewable energy projects in Hay Shire happens “with” our community, not “to” our community.

How do we do better when time is so short?

The conundrum we face is we know we need to do better, but we have only a narrow window of time to green the grid.

One avenue is to focus on the long-term prosperity of these projects, both for landowners hosting them and for the broader community. Local leadership here is essential, as are First Nations voices and leadership in clean energy.

For farmers battling increasingly volatile growing and grazing conditions due to climate change, renewables offer new income streams. Typical payments by wind companies are now more than A$40,000 per turbine per year.

Many farmers host dozens of turbines while still farming sheep or cattle. For solar projects, farmers can earn around $1,500 per hectare per year in rent and can keep running sheep under the panels. Landowners willing to host new high voltage transmission lines can get payments from $200,000 to $300,000 a kilometre depending on the state.

But we will also need national action.

The federal government must find ways of better communicating their plans at local level. Explain why we need to do this, what the benefits are to communities, and why transmission is key.

The government could consider a CSIRO-based research centre focused on environment, technology and social outcomes in the energy transition.

And the government could invest in local energy hubs where people can ask questions, get information, and find out ways of sharing benefits. These hubs could work alongside existing project shopfronts, such as the ENGIE hub in Hay.

As James Joyce wrote, mistakes are the portals of discovery. We need to learn quickly from the early opposition so we can avoid repeating our mistakes.

Read more:
Is there an alternative to 10,000 kilometres of new transmission lines? Yes – but you may not like it

Dr Simon Wright is a member of RE-Alliance, a not-for-profit renreable advocacy organisation focused on the clean energy transition in the regions.

– ref. Without community support, the green energy transition will fail. Here’s how to get communities on board – https://theconversation.com/without-community-support-the-green-energy-transition-will-fail-heres-how-to-get-communities-on-board-225163

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Leonie Rutherford, Associate professor, Deakin University

We know teenagers have busy and complex lives. School makes increasing demands on them, as do their social and extracurricular activities. We also know video games, social media and TV and movies are very popular when they have down time.

So where do books come into this picture? Our new research looks at how much Australian teenagers are reading for leisure, and how we can help them read more.

Read more:
10 ways to help the boys in your life read for enjoyment (not just for school)

Our study

We surveyed more than 13,000 Australian high school students about their reading habits in their free time, away from school and homework. The survey was done between March 2022 and June 2023.

At first, we specifically looked at book reading. These could be fiction, non-fiction or graphic novels. It also included printed books or e-books.

Our survey showed showed 15% of students read daily, while 10% read four to six times a week. About 16% read two to three times a week and 12% once a week. However, a concerning 17% engage in reading less than once a week. The rest – 29% – don’t read at all.

This last figure is broadly similar to our smaller 2016 survey which found 29% don’t read on a weekly basis and 21% don’t read any books in a month.

We also looked at other kinds of reading, such as blogs, magazines, comics, news media and other articles. Most of those surveyed read these materials weekly or less, with only 10% reading these daily. More than one-third don’t engage with these materials at all in their free time.

Audiobooks were not popular either, with only 13% listening to audiobooks in their free time.

Why is it so important to read books?

This lack of engagement with reading and books is a problem because reading for pleasure is associated with better school results as well as post-school job opportunities and emotional wellbeing.

This is because it improves vocabulary and builds contextual knowledge relevant to study. Reading also improves empathy through exposure to different ideas and perspectives.

Research also shows it is important to read longer books as opposed to shorter items such as emails or blog posts because sustained reading builds literacy for school success.

The 7 types of teen reader

Our research, which also included 118 interviews with publishers and booksellers, English teachers and librarians, and 20 focus groups with teenagers, identified seven types of teen readers from our survey results.

1. Fiction Fanatics: feel very positive about reading and read daily with a strong preference for fiction, and they read even more during holidays. They make up 12% of teen readers.

2. Regular Bookworms: also feel very positive about reading and read multiple times per week. They lean towards fiction but also read news and online articles. They make up 10% of teen readers.

3. Rushed Fans: also feel positive about about reading but read only 2-6 times a week during the school term. They read more during the holidays. They also prefer fiction but also read news articles and other articles online. They make up 9% of teen readers.

4. Casual Dabblers: read only 1-3 times per week, they feel less positive about reading and read the same or less during holidays. They make up 16% of teen readers.

5. Holiday Browsers: read infrequently and feel more neutral about reading. They are more likely to read more during holidays, usually fiction. They make up 10% of teen readers.

6. Sparse Readers: have neutral to negative feelings about reading. They tend to read articles on a weekly basis and books (mostly fiction) more rarely. They make up 10% of teens.

7. Book Abstainers: don’t engage with books or short-form reading. They make up 33% of teens (this figure is different from the 29% figure of non-readers in our survey. The survey results excluded responses from teenagers who did not finish the survey).

How can you help the teen in your life to read more?

What do these categories mean for parents and teachers who want to help the teens in their life to read more?

Our previous research has found the main reason teens give for not reading more is the difficulty of finding a good book.

While Fiction Fanatics have an excellent idea of what they like, teens who read less often lack familiarity with the types of fiction available. So they may need help identifying the genres, themes or formats they might enjoy. Talking to a librarian who knows about young adult literature such as a trained teacher-librarian or visits to a bookstore fronted by a passionate bookseller can broaden teens’ experience of what’s out there.

Adults can also help by having a selection of potential reads available to teens, particularly during holidays

We found time time pressure is a significant barrier, even though occasional readers such as Rushed Fans and Holiday Browsers do return to reading when they have more free time. You can help ease time pressure by using holiday time to maximise reading.

Think about making an inviting space for reading at home (a comfortable couch will do) and setting up a time for communal reading at home. This will provide social support for your teenager to read.

Read more:
Some kids with reading difficulties can also have reading anxiety – what can parents do?

Leonie Rutherford receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Copyright Agency’s Cultural Fund.

Andrew Singleton receives funding from the Copyright Agency Cultural Fund and the Australian Research Council for research towards this project.

Bronwyn Reddan receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Copyright Agency Cultural Fund.

Katya Johanson receives funding from the Copyright Agency Cultural Fund and the Australian Research Council for research towards this article.

Michael Dezuanni receives funding from the Australian Research Council for several projects, including for the project that informed this article.

– ref. From ‘Fiction Fanatic’ to ‘Book Abstainer’: which type of reader is your teenager? – https://theconversation.com/from-fiction-fanatic-to-book-abstainer-which-type-of-reader-is-your-teenager-226818

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Isaac Gross, Lecturer in Economics, Monash University

Every six weeks, the Reserve Bank of Australia sets the “cash rate”, affecting the interest rates paid on every Australian mortgage and savings account.

Like any price mechanism, the cost of borrowing money is determined by supply and demand – how much cash is in the banking system, and how much has been borrowed at any one time.

With powers to manipulate this supply, the Reserve Bank is able to set and precisely achieve its target cash rate.

But during the pandemic, an abundance of cash forced the Reserve Bank to quickly change its method for doing so. Now, that method is set to change again.

The traditional method – ‘scarce reserves’

When you make a purchase, pay a bill or send money to a friend, it’s quite likely the transaction involves transmitting money between different banks. Around the country, these transactions add up to a colossal amount of money – more than A$200 billion daily – and banks need to hold enough money in reserve to settle their books at the end of each day.

Banks hold these reserves in large “exchange settlement accounts” with our central bank – the Reserve Bank.

But managing these accounts gives the Reserve Bank a powerful lever for setting and adjusting interest rates.

Before the pandemic, the Reserve Bank operated under a “scarce reserves” system. Cash reserves held by banks to enable interbank transactions were kept relatively small.

Because these funds were in short supply, banks would have to actively lend them to each other to ensure they all had enough money to settle transactions at the end of each day. The interest rate on these loans was Australia’s effective cash rate.

Read more:
Interest rates are expected to drop but trying to out-think the market won’t guarantee getting a good deal

To maintain a set cash rate under a scarce reserves system, the Reserve Bank had to conduct “open market operations” to continuously fine-tune the supply of money.

If it wanted to raise the cash rate, it would sell securities (such as bonds) to commercial banks. This drew money out of the banking system and reduced the level of cash reserves.

Conversely, to lower the cash rate, it would buy securities from the commercial banks, adding money back into the system and increasing total cash reserves.

This could be a tricky process, as it required the Reserve Bank to continuously and accurately estimate the demand for cash reserves. But the central bank managed it rather well, in part because commercial banks would almost always follow their lead and lend at the target cash rate.

The main downside of this approach was that the limited supply of funds available to the banking sector increased the risk that individual banks could face liquidity problems – not having enough cash to maintain their operations.

The pandemic saw banks flush with cash

During the pandemic, however, the Reserve Bank flooded the financial system with additional funds to support the Australian economy in a downturn.

The banks suddenly had plenty of cash, so there was no need for them to lend between themselves. In central banking, this is known as a system of “abundant reserves”.

In this environment, the only way the Reserve Bank could later get the banks to lift interest rates was by offering to pay them a positive interest rate themselves. The Reserve Bank would simply increase the interest rate paid to the banks on their exchange settlement accounts, who would in turn pass that rate on to Australian households.

This is a much simpler method of lifting interest rates than continuous open-market operations, but it’s expensive. Interest rate increases over the past two years have cost the Reserve Bank more than A$40 billion.

A third option – ‘ample reserves’

With the crisis now over and many bonds sold during the pandemic falling due, the total amount of cash in exchange settlement accounts has begun to fall.

In light of this, the Reserve Bank could have chosen to continue with its current (costly) abundant reserves system, or to revert back to scarce reserves.

But its board has chosen to embrace a third option that mixes the two: “ample reserves”.

Under this approach, the Reserve Bank will continue to supply plenty of funds that banks can freely borrow at the target cash rate, which will ensure it still controls interest rates. But it will now also focus on limiting excess cash reserves in the financial system, to keep the cost of those interest payments down.

As the Reserve Bank navigates from a system of excess to ample reserves, careful monitoring and adjustments will be crucial, especially as it responds to market conditions and liquidity needs. The plan announced by the Reserve Bank didn’t contain any specific numbers about the size of the balance sheet, which will have to be worked out over time as the demand for reserves evolves.

The ultimate goal is to achieve a more efficient, stable, and flexible system for monetary policy implementation that supports the Australian economy while minimising central bank intervention in markets.

Reworking the plumbing of the monetary system won’t garner much mainstream attention, but plays a vital role in stabilising the economy without breaking the bank.

Read more:
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Isaac Gross does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. As the COVID cash glut comes to an end, the Reserve Bank is changing the way it sets and maintains interest rates – https://theconversation.com/as-the-covid-cash-glut-comes-to-an-end-the-reserve-bank-is-changing-the-way-it-sets-and-maintains-interest-rates-226962

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ben Singh, Research fellow, University of South Australia

In an era when digital domains and traditional sports fields merge, a new wave of athletic pursuits is on the rise.

Obstacle course racing, pickleball, and esports are gaining both participants and fans. As these sports carve out their niches, they prompt us to consider their broader societal implications.

How do they impact physical and mental health, and what strategies can we employ to maximise their benefits while mitigating potential risks?

Obstacle course racing: conquering challenges

Obstacle course racing involves participants navigating a series of physical challenges, including climbing, crawling, and jumping over natural and man-made obstacles.

Events like Tough Mudder and Spartan Race attract a diverse demographic of participants seeking a full-body workout that also blends physical endurance, mental resilience and community spirit.

Some of the key benefits of obstacle course racing are the sense of accomplishment, camaraderie and community it fosters.

Participants encourage and support one another, fostering a spirit of teamwork and perseverance.

However, the physical demands of these events also pose potential risks of injuries, highlighting the importance of proper training, safety measures, and medical support during races.

At community level, these races can promote a culture of health and wellness, promoting an inclusive view of physical activity that is fun and challenging, encouraging individuals to engage in regular physical activity.

But it’s essential to balance the enthusiasm for these events with environmental considerations, to ensure sustainability in course construction, waste management and minimising natural habitat disruption.

Pickleball: A game for all ages

Pickleball, a hybrid of tennis, badminton, and ping pong, is billed as one of the fastest-growing sports globally.

Though it is growing in popularity across all age groups in Australia and many other world regions, the growth is particularly fast in the older adult demographic, because it offers an accessible, low-impact path for promoting physical, mental and social wellbeing.

It has reached another level in the United States – pickleball is now a pop culture phenomenon, with a burgeoning professional scene, including sponsorships, pro leagues and tournaments offering significant prize money.

Pickleball offers substantial health benefits, including improved cardiovascular fitness, agility and coordination, with a relatively low risk of injuries.

Pickleball courts take up less space than most other sports and can be accommodated by existing indoor and outdoor recreational facilities that already cater for badminton, tennis and basketball with minor adjustments, such as portable nets and temporary line markings.

The sport requires minimal equipment and is easy to learn, making it a welcoming entry point to physical activity for individuals previously disengaged from physical exercise.

Read more:
Pickleball’s uphill climb to mainstream success

Esports: a virtual phenomenon

Esports, short for electronic sports, is a form of competition using video games.

It has rapidly transformed from a casual hobby into a professional and highly organised industry, with major national and international tournaments attracting millions of viewers and offering substantial prize pools.

There is growing crossover between traditional sports and esports, with professional sports teams, including Paris Saint-Germain (soccer), Barcelona (soccer) and the Philadelphia Eagles (American football), creating esports teams in recent years.

This shift has opened up professional gaming as a new career path young people may aspire to. Many universities and colleges are offering certifications and scholarships for esports, recognising it similarly to traditional sports.

Proponents tout its benefits beyond gaming skills, such as teamwork, strategic thinking, quick decision-making and communication.

Studies indicate videogaming and esports can boost cognitive skills and offer social benefits and social connectedness.

Evidence regarding their mental health impacts is more mixed, with some studies highlighting mental health benefits such as stress reduction and enhanced mood but others raising concerns about increased anxiety and the potential for addiction.

Long gaming sessions also pose the risks of prolonged sitting time. As well, the time for practising video games competes with time for other daily activities such as exercise, potentially compounding the physical health impacts.

This emphasises the need for education and moderation, and for gamers to balance screen time with physical exercise.

Read more:
eSports are shifting the focus of Australia’s sporting passion

Balancing act: leveraging benefits and addressing risks

The rise of these emerging sports marks a shift in how our society engages with physical activity and leisure, embracing diversity, inclusivity and community engagement.

These sports illustrate the growing appetite for varied, accessible recreation that caters to different interests, ages, and abilities, moving beyond traditional sports paradigms.

They leverage technology, notably in esports, to create new platforms for competition and connection, demonstrating the significant role of innovation in shaping contemporary sports culture.

And these activities offer substantial social and mental health benefits, fostering community building and enhancing wellbeing through communal participation and achievement.

The professionalisation and commercialisation of these sports open new economic and career opportunities, further legitimising them within the broader sports landscape.

Collectively, obstacle course racing, pickleball and esports reflect modern society’s dynamic approach to physical fitness, leisure, and the value of creating inclusive, global communities united by shared interests.

Carol Maher receives funding from the Medical Research Future Fund, the National Health and Medical Research Council, the National Heart Foundation, the SA Department for Education, Preventive Health SA, the SA Department for Innovation and Skills, Healthway, Hunter New England Local Health District, the Central Adelaide Local Health Network, and LeapForward.

Ben Singh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Esports, pickleball and obstacle course racing are surging in popularity – what are their health benefits and challenges? – https://theconversation.com/esports-pickleball-and-obstacle-course-racing-are-surging-in-popularity-what-are-their-health-benefits-and-challenges-226604

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Perhaps it was inevitable, given our current ultra-divisive politics, that governor-general designate Sam Mostyn would become the latest punching bag in the culture wars.

Warriors on the right have cast the well-qualified Mostyn as an activist from woke central. They’ve reacted variously with outrage, sarcasm, or carefully-pursed lips. The advocacy group Advance described her appointment an “insult to mainstream Australians”; one commentator wrote she reflected “the worst of modern woke Australia”.

Mostyn has progressive political views and, historically and currently, links with Labor governments. She was a staffer to Paul Keating, and has headed Albanese’s Women’s Economic Equality Taskforce. None of that makes her unsuitable to be governor-general, a post occupied with distinction by former ministers from both sides of politics. Nor will she be the first in the position with known republican leanings.

Mostyn trained as a lawyer, has had extensive business experience, and is unsurpassed as a networker. She ticks a veritable warehouse of community boxes – from being a former AFL commissioner to having served on the board of the Sydney Theatre Company.

Occupants arrive at Yarralumla after long and substantial careers. Apart from those coming post-politics (Bill Hayden, Paul Hasluck), others have included former judges (Bill Deane) and ex-military officers (David Hurley, the outgoing GG).

They don’t automatically shed their views when they cross the threshold. They may use the office to promote certain causes (Deane and Indigenous rights), although this can bring criticism and has to be handled carefully. We don’t know whether Mostyn will see the position as a platform; we can expect she’ll understand well that the governor-general should be restrained, non-partisan, and a force for national unity.

Mostyn’s modern-era predecessors have been a diverse bunch, with their time in office shaped by events, their own personalities and the expectations of the PM of the day.

Richard Hall in his biography of John Kerr wrote that Gough Whitlam “saw a growing role for a Governor-General in representing the country at functions overseas”. Kerr told an acquaintance, “I can’t tell you how important the Governor-General is going to become in the future”. In 1975, the nation found out just how important, when Kerr booted out Whitlam. Kerr used the office’s “reserve powers” to turn spectacularly on the PM who thought he could control him.

When Malcolm Fraser appointed Zelman Cowen to succeed Kerr, it was widely recognised his remit was to be a healing force after the country’s seismic political upheaval.

Mostly, we think of the governor-general as having ceremonial and community roles, as well as formal constitutional duties in granting elections and assenting to bills passed by parliament. Behind the scenes, however, and leaving aside the reserve powers, the job carries significant responsibilities.

The King’s representative can be the final checkpoint – the “watchdog” – in ensuring a government’s executive acts comply with the law and proper processes. Hurley found himself under fire when it was revealed he had signed off on Scott Morrison’s undisclosed multiple ministries, apparently without questioning what was a strange arrangement. Hurley had no discretion to refuse to sign, but critics believed he should have been more inquisitive. A later investigation into the multiple ministries affair found criticism of Hurley unwarranted.

Informally, a governor-general, especially one who is close to the PM of the day, can be a sounding board for, and source of advice to, that leader. Given how many people they meet, the governor-general is a one-person focus group. Hasluck said in a 1972 lecture: “With the Prime Minister the Governor-General can be expected to talk with frankness and friendliness, to question, discuss, suggest and counsel”.

Mostyn’s appointment reflects the two sides of Albanese’s political character – the cautious leader and the leader who wants to make a statement.

The bigger statement would have been to choose the first Indigenous governor-general – a strong positive gesture after the referendum’s loss. It’s beyond time we had a First Nations governor-general.

But the “no” vote made it a step too far for Albanese, not least because any candidate would have been on the “yes” side in the referendum and so their appointment would have opened a new political argument. Also, an Indigenous appointee might potentally have come under serious personal pressures, given the differing views among their own people.

If he wasn’t to go the Indigenous route, it was virtually certain Albanese would appoint a woman. His government has placed gender high on the list when considering qualifications for key appointments. Mostyn also had the attraction of extensive commercial experience, bringing something new to the office.

When he appeared with Mostyn at Wednesday’s news conference, Albanese carefully ensured she faced no questions. He said she’d make some comments (which were mainly to “introduce myself to those who do not yet know me”). Then, he said, “as protocol requires” she’d not say anything publicly until after taking up her office on July 1.

Read more:
Businesswoman and women’s advocate Samantha Mostyn to be Australia’s next governor-general

So there wasn’t the opportunity for her to be asked about her views on the prospects for an Australian republic. But Albanese took a question and his answer confirmed the extent to which the republic has slipped way down Labor’s priorities, given a massive shove by the referendum vote.

Asked whether it was possible Mostyn might be Australian’s last governor-general, and whether he’d like to see the republic debate come forward, Albanese said: “I made it very clear that I had one referendum in mind. And that took place last year”.

Even in May last year (before the referendum) Albanese told British broadcaster Piers Morgan, “what I don’t want to do is to be a prime minister who presides over just constitutional debates”.

It used to be said that the end of Queen Elizabeth’s reign would be the time for the republic to return into the frame. It hasn’t worked out like that. It’s not just the referendum’s defeat. There’s no community appetite to revisit the issue any time soon, and a now risk-averse PM doesn’t want another divisive fight in a second term, especially as history suggests it would be extremely hard to win it.

Certain minimum conditions would have to prevail for Australia to revisit the republic, including a conducive political climate, a pro-republic government with a hefty majority and the prospect of bipartisanship. None of these is on the horizon.

So when there’s a ministerial reshuffle – say in a re-elected Albanese government – will there still be an assistant minister for the republic, a position now held (together with other posts) by NSW MP Matt Thistlethwaite? If so, it will only be to keep faith with Labor’s faithful. Albanese must know that delivering an Australian republic is beyond him.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Grattan on Friday: Albanese has made a statement in choosing Sam Mostyn as governor-general, but he could have been bolder – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-albanese-has-made-a-statement-in-choosing-sam-mostyn-as-governor-general-but-he-could-have-been-bolder-227155

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sigi Goode, Professor of Information Systems, Australian National University

Outside the world of open-source software, it’s likely few people would have heard about XZ Utils, a small but widely used tool for data compression in Linux systems. But late last week, security experts uncovered a serious and deliberate flaw that could leave networked Linux computers susceptible to malicious attacks.

The flaw has since been confirmed as a critical issue that could allow a knowledgeable hacker to gain control over vulnerable Linux systems. Because Linux is used throughout the world in email and web servers and application platforms, this vulnerability could have given the attacker silent access to vital information held on computers throughout the world – potentially including the device you’re using right now to read this.

Major software vulnerabilities, such as the SolarWinds hack and the Heartbleed bug, are nothing new – but this one is very different.

The XZ Utils hack attempt took advantage of the way open-source software development often works. Like many open-source projects, XZ Utils is a crucial and widely used tool – and it is maintained largely by a single volunteer, working in their spare time. This system has created huge benefits for the world in the form of free software, but it also carries unique risks.

Open source and XZ Utils

First of all, a brief refresher on open-source software. Most commercial software, such as the Windows operating system or the Instagram app, is “closed-source” – which means nobody except its creators can read or modify the source code. By contrast, with “open-source” software, the source code is openly available and people are free to do what they like with it.

Open-source software is very common, particularly in the “nuts and bolts” of software which consumers don’t see, and hugely valuable. One recent study estimated the total value of open source software in use today at US$8.8 trillion.

Until around two years ago, the XZ Utils project was maintained by a developer called Lasse Collin. Around that time, an account using the name Jia Tan submitted an improvement to the software.

Read more:
From botnet to malware: a guide to decoding cybersecurity buzzwords

Not long after, some previously unknown accounts popped up to report bugs and submit feature requests to Collin, putting pressure on him to take on a helper in maintaining the project. Jia Tan was the logical candidate.

Over the next two years, Jia Tan become more and more involved and, we now know, introduced a carefully hidden weapon into the software’s source code.

The revised code secretly alters another piece of software, a ubiquitous network security tool called OpenSSH, so that it passes malicious code to a target system. As a result, a specific intruder will be able to run any code they like on the target machine.

The latest version of XZ Utils, containing the backdoor, was set to be included in popular Linux distributions and rolled out across the world. However, it was caught just in time when a Microsoft engineer investigated some minor memory irregularities on his system.

A rapid response

What does this incident mean for open-source software? Well, despite initial appearances, it doesn’t mean open-source software is insecure, unreliable or untrustworthy.

Because all the code is available for public scrutiny, developers around the world could rapidly begin analysing the backdoor and the history of how it was implemented. These efforts could be documented, distributed and shared, and the specific malicious code fragments could be identified and removed.

A response on this scale would not have been possible with closed-source software.

An attacker would need to take a somewhat different approach to target a closed-source tool, perhaps by posing as a company employee for a long period and exploiting the weaknesses of the closed-source software production system (such as bureaucracy, hierarchy, unclear reporting lines and poor knowledge sharing).

However, if they did achieve such a backdoor in proprietary software, there would be no chance of large-scale, distributed code auditing.

Lessons to be learned

This case is a valuable opportunity to learn about weaknesses and vulnerabilities of a different sort.

First, it demonstrates the ease with which online relations between anonymous users and developers can become toxic. In fact, the attack depended on the normalisation of these toxic interactions.

The social engineering part of the attack appears to have used anonymous “sockpuppet” accounts to guilt-trip and emotionally coerce the lead maintainer into accepting minor, seemingly innocuous code additions over a period of years, pressuring them to cede development control to Jia Tan.

One user account complained:

You ignore the many patches bit rotting away on this mailing list. Right now you choke your repo.

When the developer professed mental health issues, another account chided:

I am sorry about your mental health issues, but its important to be aware of your own limits.

Individually such comments might appear innocuous, but in concert become a mob.

We need to help developers and maintainers better understand the human aspects of coding, and the social relationships that affect, underpin or dictate how distributed code is produced. There is much work to be done, particularly to improve the recognition of the importance of mental health.

A second lesson is the importance of recognising “obfuscation”, a process often used by hackers to make software code and processes difficult to understand or reverse-engineer. Many universities do not teach this as part of a standard software engineering course.

Third, some systems may still be running the dangerous versions of XZ Utils. Many popular smart devices (such as refrigerators, wearables and home automation tools) run on Linux. These devices often reach an age at which it is no longer financially viable for their manufacturers to update their software – meaning they do not receive patches for newly discovered security holes.

And finally, whoever is behind the attack – some have speculated it may be a state actor – has had free access to a variety of codebases over a two-year period, perpetrating a careful and patient deception. Even now, that adversary will be learning from how system administrators, Linux distribution producers and codebase maintainers are reacting to the attack.

Where to from here?

Code maintainers around the world are now thinking about their vulnerabilities at a strategic and tactical level. It is not only their code itself they will be worrying about, but also their code distribution mechanisms and software assembly processes.

My colleague David Lacey, who runs the not-for-profit cybersecurity organisation IDCARE, often reminds me the situation facing cybersecurity professionals is well articulated by a statement from the IRA. In the wake of their unsuccessful bombing of the Brighton Grand Hotel in 1984, the terrorist organisation chillingly claimed:

Today we were unlucky, but remember we only have to be lucky once. You will have to be lucky always.

Sigi Goode does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. An anonymous coder nearly hacked a big chunk of the internet. How worried should we be? – https://theconversation.com/an-anonymous-coder-nearly-hacked-a-big-chunk-of-the-internet-how-worried-should-we-be-227143

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Darian McBain, Visiting Professor in Practice, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment;, London School of Economics and Political Science

Since the start of this year, the price for cocoa traded on the futures exchange has doubled, climbing from US$4,275 a tonne to US$9,481 after earlier hitting an all-time high of US$10,274.

So it would be natural to expect the price of chocolate to soar, and to expect cocoa growers to get more.

But, as surprising as it seems, my calculations suggest neither is likely, although we can certainly expect the price of chocolate to rise.

The price of cocoa is soaring because intense heat and rains have hit harvests in West Africa. Yields are expected to fall short for the third year in a row.

As this has happened, climate change and desertification have shrunk the amount of land suitable for growing cocoa, at the same time as demand for cocoa has continued to grow.

An increase of US$5,000 per tonne means an increase of 50 US cents per 100 grams.

A typical chocolate snack weighing 45 grams includes about 15% cocoa, so it contains seven grams. This means an increase in the cocoa price of US$5,000 per tonne is only capable of increasing the cost of a typical chocolate snack by about four US cents, which is six Australian cents.

But already this year the price of finished chocolate bars has increased by more.

In Europe, Mondelēz (which makes Cadbury) has increased prices by 12–15%. In the United States, Mars has increased prices by 15%.

And those increases come on top of hefty increases in 2023. In a year in which cocoa prices should have pushed up the cost of the cocoa in a typical 45 gram snack by less than one US cent (less than two Australian cents), Mondelēz increased some prices by 15% and Nestlé by 9.5%.

And Mars and Nestlé shrank some of their bars.

This needn’t mean profiteering. There’s a lot that goes into chocolate in addition to cocoa. Among the other inputs are sugar, milk, dried fruits and nuts, factory labour, wrapping and distribution. But it does mean the recent explosion in cocoa prices doesn’t explain much about what’s happened to the price of chocolate.

Higher prices no bonanza for growers

In some countries, 90% of cocoa growers don’t earn a living income. Many of the 800,000 cocoa farmers in Ghana survive on just US$2 a day.

The average cocoa farm in West Africa is just three to four hectares, producing less than one tonne per year. These are conditions that can exacerbate child labour, forced labour and deforestation, which itself contributes to climate change.

On the face of it, the increased price will help, allowing farmers to educate their children rather than put them to work.

But it’s not that straightforward. One reason is that although some farmers are getting more per tonne, many are producing fewer tonnes as a result of the hit to harvests.

Farmers don’t get futures prices

Another reason is that in Cöte d’Ivoire and Ghana (which between them produce 60% of the world’s cocoa) governments fix the farmgate price. What happens on the futures market is of little immediate relevance.

And the higher futures prices might not last. If traders become less worried about prices going up, the current high futures prices could fall before they get fed into the prices paid to growers.

As well, farmers get very little of the price – on one estimate only 6–7% of the price. The producers of cocoa products get 40–45%, and the rest is taken up by transport and related costs.

More importantly, researchers estimate that to reach a living income, farmers would need to be getting three to four times what they have been getting, rather than merely twice as much.

Read more:
Each Easter we spend about $62 a head on chocolates, but the cost of buying unsustainable products can be far greater

And when the price of cocoa goes up, other costs in those poor communities tend to go up as well, not only essentials such as rice but things needed for growing cocoa such as fertiliser.

I look forward to the day when a chocolate company says its prices are going up because it has decided to give the farmers who grow its cocoa a living income.

Some are making welcome steps. Mars has a target of doubling the income of its cocoa farmers in Cote d’Ivoire and Indonesia by 2030.

But we are still a long way from paying growers properly. Although we are certainly paying more for chocolate, right now very little of it is going to the ultimate producers of its most important raw material.

Carolyn Kitto from Be Slavery Free assisted with the preparation of this piece. If you would like to know more about companies’ progress towards paying a living income go to www.chocolatescorecard.com.

Darian McBain is affiliated with Be Slavery Free Australia.

– ref. The cocoa price has doubled in mere months, but it shouldn’t add much to the price of chocolate: here’s why – https://theconversation.com/the-cocoa-price-has-doubled-in-mere-months-but-it-shouldnt-add-much-to-the-price-of-chocolate-heres-why-226914

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Gaunson, Associate Professor in Cinema Studies, RMIT University

Since Australia first began producing feature films, it has returned time and again to the subject of the first world war. Before Dawn, out in cinemas today, is the latest in this long line of productions.

Based on the real-life war diaries of ANZACS, many of which are held at the Australian War Memorial in Canberra, the film retells how Australian forces helped secure positions from which an attack on the Hindenburg Line could be launched.

As this has been written into history as one of Australia’s great contributions to the attack of the Western Front, the film provides an important essay on the human sacrifice the ANZACS made during WWI.

A sombre portrait of war

The Germans constructed the Hindenburg Line, also known as the Siegfriedstellung or “Siegfried Position” in German, as a defensive fortification on the Western Front in France during the winter of 1916–1917. Stretching between the towns of Arras and Laffaux in the country’s north, it served as a formidable barrier against Allied offensives.

The Hindenburg Line has been portrayed in various films, offering different national viewpoints. Most recently, director Sam Mendes’ 1917 (2019) depicts it from the British perspective, while Edward Berger’s 2022 film All Quiet on the Western Front provides insight from a German standpoint.

Similar to All Quiet on the Western Front, Before Dawn downplays the celebration of victory and nationalist sacrifice by instead providing a sombre portrait of the horrors of combat.

By the time Armistice Day arrives on November 11 1918, marking the end of the war, it is hardly a victory for the soldiers. Rather, it is a moment to absorb the trauma the living now carry, as they are literally surrounded by the corpses of their dead mates.

This portrayal comes through the fictionalised story of teenager Jim Collins (played by Levi Miller), who voluntarily leaves his family-run sheep station to join the ANZAC.

A young man’s film through and through

This backstory alone makes for an obvious comparison between Before Dawn and Peter Weir’s seminal film Gallipoli (1981). Both films depict the story of an 18-year-old stockman from Western Australia. That said, it would seem a little unfair to compare Before Dawn with the quality and emotional gravitas of Gallipoli.

Read more:
Peter Weir’s Gallipoli 40 years on: deftly directed and still devastating

By the time Weir directed his war epic he was well experienced, 38 years old and with four feature director credits under his belt. He also had experienced talent at his disposal, most notably screenwriter David Williamson, cinematographer Russell Boyd and actor Mel Gibson (hot off the heels of George Miller’s Mad Max 1 and 2).

In contrast, the director of Before Dawn is Jordon Prince-Wright, who is just 19 years old. He worked with relatively inexperienced talent, including upcoming Aussie actors Levi Miller, Travis Jeffrey, Ed Oxenbould and Stephen Peacocke.

Prince-Wright’s prior credits include 2018 film The Decadent and Depraved, an independent western genre film set in outback colonial Western Australia.

Before Dawn was exclusively filmed in regional Western Australia – primarily on about 34 hectares of land near the beach town of Esperance. An extensive set was built to recreate the trenches and battlegrounds of Flanders, Belgium. Originally scheduled to begin in June 2020, the production team postponed filming for a year due to the pandemic.

Prince-Wright shares screenwriting duties with Jarrad Russell, who is receiving his first screenwriting feature credit on the film. It is also the first feature credit for cinematographer Daniel Quinn.

Before Dawn is certainly a young man’s film, both in what is being represented as well as in the cast and crew behind the production. This seems somewhat apt since, during WWI, the largest proportion of men fighting was comprised of 18 and 19 year olds.

Ambitious work

While you can’t deny the enthusiasm and ambition of the production team, the film does fall short of evoking the necessary empathy. It relies too heavily on composer Sean Tinnion’s overstated musical score to provide emotional weight.

Furthermore, despite more than 100 Aboriginal soldiers also serving on the front lines on the Western Front, Before Dawn is yet another production depicting Australian WWI soldiers as exclusively white men. The contribution of Aboriginal soldiers during WWI is yet to be satisfactorily fictionalised on the screen.

Despite these faults and oversights, Before Dawn offers an account of the important sacrifice Australia made in assisting the Commonwealth during the war. Coupled with other sources, it could function well as a teaching text for students learning about the Hindenburg Line.

Read more:
War movies are big earners. What does that say about us?

Stephen Gaunson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Before Dawn: 19-year-old director’s new film is a sombre recount of the ANZACs’ sacrifice – https://theconversation.com/before-dawn-19-year-old-directors-new-film-is-a-sombre-recount-of-the-anzacs-sacrifice-224243

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Parmeter, Research Scholar, Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, Australian National University

Napoleon’s foreign minister, Charles Maurice de Talleyrand, is said to have remarked concerning the effectiveness of targeting civilians in war: “it’s worse than a crime, it’s a mistake”.

Talleyrand was an archetypal exponent of realpolitik, and history provides numerous examples of the validity of his remark. One is the prolonged US bombing of North Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos during the Vietnam war in the late 1960s and early 1970s. These attacks, which included use of the now banned defoliant “Agent Orange”, laid waste vast tracts of territory in all three countries, killing around two million civilians. But they failed to prevent the North winning.

The Gaza war will reach the six-month mark this Sunday. It’s starting to look like a stalemate, raising the question of whether Israel’s military campaign there is proving to be another validation of Talleyrand’s principle.

The headline figure of mainly civilian deaths in Gaza is horrifying enough – now well over 33,000 according to the Gaza Ministry of Health. Though the ministry is managed by Hamas, the World Health Organization describes its data collection as “credible and well developed”. Israel claims 13,000 of those killed were Hamas fighters, though it has not said how it calculated that figure.

However, the headline figure also misses the number of aid workers killed in Gaza since the war started – an aspect of the Gaza horror now brought directly to international attention by Israel’s killing of seven volunteers with the food aid agency World Central Kitchen – including Australian Zomi Frankcom.

With the deaths of the World Central Kitchen volunteers, the number of aid workers killed is now 196.

Read more:
The UN Security Council has finally called for a ceasefire in Gaza. But will it have any effect?

Claims of poor coordination refuted

The basic facts seem to be an Israeli drone fired three missiles at a convoy of three cars carrying the World Central Kitchen volunteers – despite the fact the vehicles were clearly marked on the roof and sides with the charity’s logo. The route had been preapproved and coordinated with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).

The IDF and defence ministry claimed the strikes on the World Central Kitchen vehicles followed misidentification and poor coordination at night in complex war conditions because of suspicion an armed militant was travelling with them.

The Israeli newspaper Haaretz, citing defence sources, has refuted these claims. Haaretz quotes its sources as saying the incident had “no connection to coordination” and was caused by the fact “every commander sets the rules for himself”. The army’s killing of seven aid workers in the Gaza Strip on Monday night “stemmed from poor discipline among field commanders, not a lack of coordination between the army and aid organisations”.

These are explosive allegations. A spokesman for Israel’s military, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, said the incident has been referred to the Fact Finding and Assessment Mechanism, a military body tasked with investigating accusations and looking into the circumstances behind battlefield episodes. The Israeli military says the mechanism is an “independent, professional and expert body”. However, human rights groups have generally been critical of the Israeli military’s ability to transparently investigate itself.

Unsurprisingly, in the aftermath of the fatal attack, humanitarian groups announced they are suspending operations in the territory. World Central Kitchen, along with other aid organisations such as Anera, which helps refugees around the Middle East, and the US-based Project Hope, which focuses on healthcare, announced they would pause operations in Gaza to protect their staff.

Read more:
Gaza conflict: snapshot of a population being starved into submission

How will this affect Australia’s position?

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese spoke with his Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu on April 2. Albanese said he expressed Australia’s outrage at Frankcom’s death and said he wanted “full accountability”.

Albanese said he had reiterated Australia’s longstanding concern with Israel’s plans for a ground invasion of the southern Gaza area of Rafah, where more than a million Palestinian civilians are sheltering.

He added that he made clear Australia believes humanitarian assistance must reach people in Gaza unimpeded and in large quantities.

However, Albanese did not give a direct answer when asked whether he had spelled out any potential consequences for the bilateral relationship if Israel does not conduct a satisfactory investigation into Frankcom’s death or change its method of waging war against Hamas.

Netanyahu promised a full investigation. But his initial public comment on the killings that “these things happen in war” seemed like a philosophical shrug of the shoulders, suggesting no major outcome is likely from the investigation. It also suggested Netanyahu has a closer eye on his political standing in Israel than the international reaction to the deaths.

Don’t expect much change

The reality is not much is likely to change in terms of Australia’s dealings with Israel.

Foreign Minister Penny Wong has already made clear no Australian military equipment has been sold to Israel since the start of the Gaza war. Australia’s defence exports to Israel are in any case miniscule – A$13 million over the past five years.

Wong has said many times Israel has the right to defend itself but the way it does so matters. She also told the ABC on April 3:

Wartime does not obviate responsibility for observing international humanitarian law, including the protection of aid workers.

Australia can be expected to reiterate calls for a ceasefire in Gaza and a two-state solution to the conflict. Neither are in prospect because Netanyahu has rejected both. Moreover, a two-state solution is simply not possible given the fact half a million Israeli settlers now live in the West Bank – meaning it can no longer form the basis for any Palestinian state.

With ceasefire negotiations stalled, the outlook for Gaza depends on Israeli domestic politics. Netanyahu faces pressure on several fronts. This includes from families and supporters of more than 100 Israeli hostages still held by Hamas, but also from his own hard-right coalition, which insists he continue the war regardless of the high Palestinian casualty rate. Pressure is also coming from the Biden administration, which disapproves of the way Israel is waging the war and the impact on Palestinian civilians.

The only potential circuit breaker would be the capture or killing of the two Hamas leaders in Gaza – Yahya Sinwar and Mohamed Deif – but they are hidden deep inside the tunnel network beneath Gaza.

Read more:
Israel-Gaza war: why did the ceasefire negotiations collapse – and can they be revived?

Ian Parmeter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Zomi Frankcom is a tragic victim in the stalemated Israel-Hamas war, but don’t expect Australia’s approach to change much – https://theconversation.com/zomi-frankcom-is-a-tragic-victim-in-the-stalemated-israel-hamas-war-but-dont-expect-australias-approach-to-change-much-227045

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Thomas Sigler, Associate Professor of Human Geography, The University of Queensland

Two out of three Australians will “fall back” an hour as daylight saving ends for the season next Sunday, April 7.

Like clockwork, countless opinion pieces will emerge in the media. Many will argue that daylight saving is pointless, outdated or even unhealthy, and we need to get rid of it. Others propose ditching the biannual time change for “permanent” daylight saving, which would extend winter evenings in exchange for darker winter mornings.

In sharp contrast to what many sensationalised reports and opinions might suggest, my research results indicate the vast majority of Australians – 80% – support daylight saving.

A representative survey of more than 1,100 people found majority support, even in Queensland and Western Australia. Furthermore, this is true across occupations, states, income levels, household status, employment status and political affiliation.

That said, there were some differences between those who support daylight saving and those who do not.

So who typically supports daylight saving?

Supporters of daylight saving are on average six years younger that its opponents. Supporters of daylight saving are more likely to be female, higher-income, urban and employed full-time. Those against it are more often male, lower-middle-income, rural, retired or employed casually, and born in Australia.

Support for daylight saving is strongest among Australian Greens and Liberal Party voters.

Supporters of daylight saving also tend to live farther south, where the difference between summertime and wintertime daylight hours is greater.

Occupation was also important. Those who work outdoors – such as labourers, tradespeople and technicians – are often less supportive than their white-collar counterparts, who most often work indoors.

Read more:
6 ways to stop daylight saving derailing your child’s sleep

Why do we have daylight saving?

A Kiwi entomologist named George Hudson is widely credited with creating daylight saving. His motivation? So he could collect insects later into the evening.

The basic premise for daylight saving is that afternoon daylight is more useful than early morning daylight, so we “borrow” an hour. In the winter, we return the hour to the morning, so we can wake up closer to dawn.

Before the Industrial Revolution, time and time zones were not universally observed, as agrarian work could be adjusted to sunrise and sunset times.

Nowadays, clock time is essential to meet the demands of our busy schedules. We need standardised school hours, shop hours and working hours. The implication of this, though, is that a nine-to-five job gives someone in Brisbane, for example, three hours of daylight before work, but only an hour afterwards.

Read more:
Daylight savings: how an hour of extra sunlight can benefit your mental health

Could we just wake up earlier? Sure, but shops are closed in the mornings and most workers cannot simply knock off at 2pm to enjoy the rest of their afternoon. In fact, golf clubs are some of the biggest proponents of daylight saving.

So, although daylight saving may seem anachronistic, it appears to be the most palatable solution for adjusting to seasonal changes in day length.

Confusing time zones are a problem

Part of the debate stems from the fact that Australia has a unique time-zone structure. Victoria, New South Wales, Tasmania, South Australia and ACT have observed daylight saving since 1971, but it gets much more complicated than this.

In the winter, Australian states and territories observe three time zones. In the summer, this increases to five. When we include territorial dependencies such as Norfolk and Christmas Islands, Australia observes ten time zones in the summertime, or 11 if you count Eucla’s local time zone.

To put this into perspective, all of China operates on a single time zone.

For many Australians, the status quo works, because it aligns “social noon” with solar noon. My survey results confirm the middle of respondents’ waking day – referred to as “social noon” – was 2.24pm on weekdays and 3.07pm on weekends. That’s more than three hours after solar noon (when the Sun is at its highest point in the sky) without daylight saving.

The following maps show current time zones in summer and winter, and the proposed alternatives discussed below. Use the slider to reveal the alternatives.

How could daylight saving be improved?

There have been various proposals to reconfigure Australia’s time zone regime.

“Permanent daylight saving” is an idea that would realign Australia’s current time zones so as to obviate the need for the biannual change. This would permanently shift Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne an hour or half-hour forward.

Many similar proposals have been floated in both the United States and Europe, most notably the US Sunshine Protection Act.

Read more:
As the US pushes to make daylight saving permanent, should Australia move in the same direction?

Another idea is to eliminate time zones entirely. As Johns Hopkins’ Steve Hanke and Dick Henry have proposed, the entire world would run on Greenwich Mean Time – or, more precisely, Co-ordinated Universal Time (UTC) – and hours would be locally adjusted. As it stands, there are 38 “UTC offsets” worldwide – a rough proxy for the number of time zones.

Queensland and Western Australia are perhaps the most significant battlegrounds in Australia’s daylight-saving debate. Both states cover vast areas, incorporating tropical and temperate regions. Brisbane, for instance, is closer to Melbourne in Victoria than to Cairns in Far North Queensland.

In both states, there’s a geographic divide, with the majority of daylight-saving supporters in and around the state capitals, Brisbane and Perth, in the south. Though both states have held referendums on the issue, it has been 15 years since Western Australians have had a say and 32 years since Queenslanders have.

If each state held another referendum today, survey responses suggest both would find widespread support. Politicians may need to think carefully, though, about how to address each state’s internal divisions.

Thomas Sigler receives funding from the Australian Research Council.
This study was funded by the Office of Wilson Tucker MLC, independent member for the Mining and Pastoral Region in the parliament of Western Australia.

– ref. Daylight saving has 80% support in Australia and a majority in every state – https://theconversation.com/daylight-saving-has-80-support-in-australia-and-a-majority-in-every-state-225797

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Monique Moffa, Lecturer, Criminology & Justice, RMIT University

Parole is a hot topic in politics and in the media at the moment, fuelled by several high-profile parole applications.

Recently, Keli Lane’s attempt to be released on parole after years in jail for the murder of her baby daughter was unsuccessful. Paul Denyer, known as the “Frankston Serial Killer” for murdering three women in the 90s was also denied parole.

Meanwhile, Snowtown accomplice Mark Haydon was granted parole with strict conditions, but is yet to be released.

Some media coverage of such well-known cases is littered with myths about what parole is, how it’s granted and what it looks like. Here’s what the evidence says about three of the most common misconceptions.

Read more:
‘No body, no parole’ laws could be disastrous for the wrongfully convicted

Myth 1: people on parole walk free

Parole is the conditional release of an incarcerated person (parolee) by a parole board authority, after they have served their non-parole period (minimum sentence) in jail. This isn’t always reflected in headlines.

Some coverage suggests people on parole are released early and “walk free” without conditions. This is not true.

According to the Adult Parole Board of Victoria:

Parole provides incarcerated people with a structured, supported and supervised transition so that they can adjust from prison back into the community, rather than returning straight to the community at the end of their sentence without supervision or support.

Parole comes with strict conditions and requirements, such as curfews, drug and alcohol testing, electronic monitoring, program participation, to name a few.

People with experience of parole highlight its punitivism and continued extension of surveillance.

Myth 2: most parolees reoffend

Another myth is that the likelihood all parolees reoffend is high. Research over a number of years has consistently found parole reduces reoffending.

For example, a 2016 study in New South Wales found at the 12 month mark, a group of parolees reoffended 22% less than an unsupervised cohort.

A 2022 study by the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research found parole was especially successful in reducing serious recidivism rates among incarcerated people considered to be at a high risk of reoffending.

Read more:
Serial killers’ fates are in politicians’ hands. Here’s why that’s a worry

More recently in Victoria, the Adult Parole Board found over 2022–23, no parolees were convicted of committing serious offences while on parole.

In contrast, unstructured and unconditional release increases the risk of returning to prison.

Myth 3: parole is easy to get

While the number of parolees reoffending has dropped, so too has the total number of people who are exiting prison on parole.

Over a decade ago, Victoria underwent significant parole reforms, largely prompted by high-profile incidents and campaigns. In just five years following Jill Meagher’s tragic death in 2012, the Victorian government passed 13 laws reshaping parole.

The result is the number of people on parole in Victoria has halved since 2012, despite incarceration numbers remaining steady.

These reforms have made it more difficult for people convicted of serious offences to get parole, as well as preventing individuals or specific groups from being eligible for parole (such as police killers, “no body, no parole” prisoners, and certain high-profile murderers).

Similar laws can be found in other states. For example, no body, no parole was introduced in all other Australian states and territories, except for Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory.

As a consequence, more people are being released at the end of their full sentence. This can be detrimental not only for the incarcerated person but the wider community, because they are not receiving the reintegration support parole provides.

Aside from restricted access due to political intervention, parole is facing a new crisis, which has nothing to do with eligibility or suitability.

Last year, 40% of Victorian parole applications were denied, often due to reasons unrelated to suitability.

Housing scarcity played a significant role, with 59% of rejections (or 235 applications) citing a lack of suitable accommodation as one of the reasons parole was denied. This is playing out across the country.

Parole is vulnerable to community and media hype, and political knee-jerk reactions in response to high profile incidents involving a person on parole. Because of the actions of a few, parole as a process has been restricted for many.

Read more:
Political interventions have undermined the parole system’s effectiveness and independence

While the wider community are active in advocacy efforts to restrict parole from certain people or groups (for example, this petition for Lyn’s Law in NSW), public efforts to restrict parole seem at odds with its purposes.

Despite this, research suggests when the public are educated about the purposes and intent of parole, they are more likely to be supportive of it.

The susceptibility of parole to media and community influence results in frequent, impactful changes affecting individuals inside and outside prisons. Headlines such as “walking free” have the potential to mislead the public on the purpose and structure of parole. Coverage should portray parole beyond mere early termination of a sentence by accurately reflecting its purpose and impact.

Monique Moffa works for RMIT University’s Bridge of Hope Innocence Initiative which examines cases of wrongful conviction that may be impacted by parole policies.

Alyssa Sigamoney works for RMIT University’s Bridge of Hope Innocence Initiative which examines cases of wrongful conviction that may be impacted by parole policies.

Greg Stratton works for RMIT University’s Bridge of Hope Innocence Initiative which examines cases of wrongful conviction that may be impacted by parole policies.

Jarryd Bartle works for RMIT University’s Bridge of Hope Innocence Initiative which examines cases of wrongful conviction that may be impacted by parole policies.

Michele Ruyters works for RMIT University’s Bridge of Hope Innocence Initiative which examines cases of wrongful conviction that may be impacted by parole policies.

– ref. Do parolees really ‘walk free’? Busting common myths about parole – https://theconversation.com/do-parolees-really-walk-free-busting-common-myths-about-parole-226607

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jessica Pace, Associate Lecturer, Sydney Pharmacy School, University of Sydney

Hundreds of thousands of people worldwide are taking drugs like Ozempic to lose weight. But what do we actually know about them? This month, The Conversation’s experts explore their rise, impact and potential consequences.

To say that Ozempic is a blockbuster drug is an understatement. Manufacturer Novo Nordisk is scrambling to expand production sites to keep up with global demand.

While Ozempic is only approved for the treatment of diabetes in Australia, it is also marketed overseas for weight loss under the brand name Wegovy.

Social media is full of posts and endorsements by celebrities who are using it for weight loss. Faced with limited access in Australia, some people who need the medication for diabetes can’t access it.

Others are turning to the internet to source it from compounding pharmacies – a practice Australia’s regulator, the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA), plans to clamp down on.

How doctors are prescribing Ozempic

Use of Ozempic for weight loss in Australia is considered “off label”. This is when a doctor prescribes a medicine for a purpose outside of what is approved.

Ozempic is only approved to be used for the treatment of diabetes in Australia, but its off-label prescribing for weight loss is driving shortages which the TGA thinks will last until 2025.

To manage these shortages, Australian doctors and pharmacies are being asked not to start new patients on Ozempic and to prioritise it for patients with type 2 diabetes who are already stabilised on this medicine.

However, the TGA says it:

does not have the power to regulate the clinical decisions of health professionals and is unable to prevent doctors from using their clinical judgement to prescribe Ozempic for other health conditions.

Why can’t we just make more?

The active ingredient in Ozempic, semaglutide, is a delicate peptide molecule made up of two small chains of amino acids. It’s just one in a family of drugs that are classified as GLP-1 inhibitors.

Because it’s a peptide, its manufacture is complex and requires specialised facilities beyond those used to make normal chemical-based drugs.

It is also delivered via an injection, meaning that it has to be manufactured under strict conditions to ensure it is both sterile and temperature controlled.

This means increasing production is not as simple as just deciding to manufacture more. Its manufacturer needs time to build new facilities to increase production.

Compounding pharmacies are making their own

Compounding is the practice of combining, mixing, or altering ingredients of a drug to create a formulation tailored to the needs of an individual patient.

Australian law allows pharmacists to compound only when it is for the treatment of a particular patient to meet their individual clinical need and there is no suitable commercially manufactured product available. An example is making a liquid form of a drug from a tablet for people unable to swallow.

Compounded products are not held to the same safety, quality and efficacy standards required for mass produced medicines. This recognises the one-off nature of such compounded medicines and the professional training of the pharmacists who prepare them.

Read more:
The rise of Ozempic: how surprise discoveries and lizard venom led to a new class of weight-loss drugs

Recently, pharmacies have been relying on these compounding rules to produce their own Ozempic-like products at scale and ship them to consumers around Australia.

However, there are risks when using these products. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has recently warned consumers of the dangers of using compounded formulations that contain particular salt formulations of semaglutide. It has received more reports of side effects in patients using these products.

How the regulator plans to tighten the loophole

The TGA is taking a number of steps to tighten the compounding loophole and there are ongoing investigations in this area.

In December 2023, the agency issued a public safety warning on the dangers of these compounded medicines.

More recently, it has proposed removing GLP-1 drugs, which includes Ozempic, from Australia’s compounding exemptions. This would effectively ban pharmacies from making off-brand Ozempic. This proposal is currently under consultation and a final decision is expected by June this year.

If you want to access the drug for weight loss before the shortage is over, be aware that compounded products are not identical to approved Ozempic and have not been evaluated for safety, quality and efficacy.

Supply of copycat versions is also likely to be limited, given the ongoing TGA crackdown.

Read more:
Considering taking a weight-loss drug like Ozempic? Here are some potential risks and benefits

Read the other articles in The Conversation’s Ozempic series here.

Andrew Bartlett is a member of the Pharmaceutical Society of Australia

Nial Wheate in the past has received funding from the ACT Cancer Council, Tenovus Scotland, Medical Research Scotland, Scottish Crucible, and the Scottish Universities Life Sciences Alliance. He is a Fellow of the Royal Australian Chemical Institute, a member of the Australasian Pharmaceutical Science Association, and a member of the Australian Institute of Company Directors. Nial is the chief scientific officer of Vaihea Skincare LLC, a director of SetDose Pty Ltd a medical device company, and a Standards Australia panel member for sunscreen agents. Nial regularly consults to industry on issues to do with medicine risk assessments, manufacturing, design, and testing.

Jessica Pace does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Ozempic isn’t approved for weight loss in Australia. So how are people accessing it? – https://theconversation.com/ozempic-isnt-approved-for-weight-loss-in-australia-so-how-are-people-accessing-it-224859

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Euan Ritchie, Professor in Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, School of Life & Environmental Sciences, Deakin University

Policy alignment sounds dry. But think of it like this: you want to make suburbs cooler and more liveable, so you plant large trees. But then you find the trees run afoul of fire and safety provisions, and they’re cut down.

Such problems are all too common. Policies set by different government departments start with good intentions only to clash with other policies.

At present, the Albanese government is working towards stronger environmental laws, following the scathing 2020 Samuel review of the current Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act. The review noted planning, funding and regulatory decisions are “not well integrated or clearly directed towards achieving long-term environmental sustainability”.

Stronger laws are not a standalone answer. We must find ways to align government policies far better, so progress on one front doesn’t lead to a setback elsewhere. As the government prepares to announce once in a generation changes to our main environment laws, it must find ways to reduce these clashes.

Nature vs cities

All levels of government have policies aimed at increasing canopy cover and biodiversity in cities. How hard can it be to plant trees?

The problems start when you look for places to actually plant street trees. It’s common to encounter a wall of obstacles, namely, other policies and regulations. Fire prevention, human safety, visibility for road traffic and provision of footpaths and carparks are often legally binding requirements that can stymie this seemingly simple goal.

Most cities in Australia are now actually losing canopy cover rather than gaining more.

On the biodiversity front, urban sprawl is pushing many species and ecosystems to the brink of extinction.

Last year, conservationists rediscovered the grassland earless dragon on Melbourne’s grassy western fringes, which we had believed was extinct. Now we had a second chance to save it, in line with the Australian government’s pledge to stop extinctions.

The problem? The grasslands where the dragon was found near Bacchus Marsh, just outside Melbourne, are zoned for housing. Only 1% of the grasslands ecosystems suitable for these reptiles is still intact, and much of it has been earmarked for housing.

From a housing point of view, the continued existence of the dragon now threatens plans for 310,000 homes.

If we had better policy alignment, we would look to achieve both goals: protect the dragon and build more housing through methods such as building sustainable midrise developments in established urban areas.

Read more:
Victoria has rediscovered a dragon – how do we secure its future?

Protecting the reef while exporting LNG

Meanwhile, the Great Barrier Reef is bleaching again, the fifth bout in just eight years.

Almost all the extra heat trapped by greenhouse gases goes into our oceans, triggering marine heatwaves and bleaching. If the world’s largest living structure bleaches too much, it will begin to die, threatening its rich biodiversity, cultural heritage and industries such as tourism.

On the one hand, Australia wants to protect the reef and has funded efforts to boost water quality.

But on the other hand, supportive government policies contribute to our recent emergence as a top exporter of liquefied natural gas, which is 85–95% comprised of the potent greenhouse gas methane. Land clearing in the catchments of rivers which flow to the reef is ongoing due to policy loopholes, which adds more smothering sediment, nutrients and pollutants to the reef’s woes.

The shipping sector only has to abide by a voluntary code to avoid invasive species arriving in the ship’s bilge water, even though they could be carrying the tissue loss disease devastating reefs in the Caribbean and Florida.

Read more:
Out of danger because the UN said so? Hardly – the Barrier Reef is still in hot water

Renewables versus biodiversity

Calls to fast-track clean energy projects and stop them being held up by environmental approvals are risky. We could tackle one crisis (climate change) by making another worse (biodiversity and extinction).

Australia has destroyed nearly 40% of its forests since European colonisation, with much of the remaining native vegetation highly fragmented. Because this clearing has already happened, it should be entirely possible to build renewables without damaging the homes of native species.

In fact, we can do better – we can take degraded farmland, build solar on it and restore low-lying native vegetation around it to actually boost biodiversity. Requiring new renewable projects to be nature positive would encourage creative approaches to delivering infrastructure while benefiting nature.

Policy clashes abound

There is, sadly, no shortage of examples of clashing policies:

• Victoria’s “wild dog” bounty pays landowners to kill the dingo, a listed threatened native species

• relaxing new emissions rules for utes and vans conflicts with government climate efforts to rapidly reduce emissions

• exotic plant species such as buffel grass are still routinely used and promoted for use in agriculture, despite the damage they do to biodiversity and their ability to fuel more severe fires, more often.

Read more:
‘Existential threat to our survival’: see the 19 Australian ecosystems already collapsing

Why the lack of alignment?

For politicians, the environment ministry is often seen as a poisoned chalice.

Within government, departments often pull in different directions. When resource and agriculture plans conflict with environmental concerns, it’s not hard to guess which side tends to win. Case in point: the recent plans to remove gas project oversight from environment minister Tanya Plibersek in favour of resources minister Madeleine King.

How can we make policies work together better for the environment? Governments should sift through all relevant policies and regulations to make sure nature-positive approaches are embedded. Requiring development proposals to benefit nature would go a long way to reducing environment-economy conflict. After all, most businesses are now looking into ways of becoming nature-positive.

Too often, environment policies are seen as opposed to those promoting the economy, jobs and industry. But they don’t have to clash.

Tremendous opportunities exist for a safer, more sustainable future, if we address current causes of friction and take a big picture approach to how we develop our policies.

Read more:
5 things we need to see in Australia’s new nature laws

Euan Ritchie receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Action. Euan is a Councillor within the Biodiversity Council, and a member of the Ecological Society of Australia and the Australian Mammal Society.

Catherine Lovelock receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is affiliated with the Biodiversity Council and the Independent Expert Panel for the Great Barrier Reef.

Sarah Bekessy receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the National Health and Medical Research Council, the Ian Potter Foundation and the European Commission. She is a lead councillor of the Biodiversity Council, a board member of Bush Heritage Australia, a member of WWF’s Eminent Scientists Group and a member of the Advisory Group for Wood for Good

– ref. Out of alignment: how clashing policies make for terrible environmental outcomes – https://theconversation.com/out-of-alignment-how-clashing-policies-make-for-terrible-environmental-outcomes-226509

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Angel Zhong, Associate Professor of Finance, RMIT University

Staying competitive in the finance sector is vital, with many companies moving quickly to adopt artificial intelligence (AI) to reduce costs and streamline operations.

But two companies recently came unstuck when the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) accused them of exaggerating their use of AI, marking the world’s first significant move in combating so-called “AI washing”.

Delphia (USA) Inc and Global Predictions Inc, boasted about using AI for designing investment strategies, but the SEC found their claims to be unsubstantiated.

There’s much speculation around AI, especially with generative technology app ChatGPT shaking things up. But amid all the hype, AI washing is becoming more common.

As well as exaggerating or misrepresenting their AI capabilities, companies may inflate the abilities of AI algorithms or create the illusion AI plays a more significant role than it actually does.

What’s so good about AI?

Incorporating AI into business operations has many benefits. It can streamline processes, quickly break down and analyse complex data to speed up decision-making, and help organisations stay ahead in a rapidly evolving and competitive market.

Promoting its use of AI helps portray a company as high-tech and cutting-edge, even if the reality doesn’t check out.

Read more:
The ‘digital divide’ is already hurting people’s quality of life. Will AI make it better or worse?

The practice of AI washing isn’t totally new. It follows the same idea as greenwashing, where companies pretend to be eco-friendly to attract investors and consumers.

It involves dressing up ordinary tech with fancy AI buzzwords such as “machine learning”, “neural networks”, “deep learning” and “natural language” processing to seem more innovative than they actually are.

AI and the finance sector

AI washing flourishes in finance and investment because of the industry’s high-stakes, intense competition and the seductive appeal of technology-driven solutions.

AI’s algorithms can analyse extensive datasets, enhance predictability and uncover hidden patterns in financial data. And AI’s real-time processing capabilities enable dynamic adaptation to market changes.

The complexity of financial products provides room for firms to conceal the reality behind flashy AI claims. And the lack of regulation exacerbates the problem.

Despite AI’s impressive capabilities, it’s not without its drawbacks, including ethical concerns, susceptibility to cyber attacks and manipulation, and the lack of transparency in how AI algorithms arrive at decisions or predictions.

Read more:
80% of Australians think AI risk is a global priority. The government needs to step up

Supporters of AI-related investments range from novice retail investors to seasoned institutional players.

Such interest has led to venture capital firms allocating more capital to AI startups last year than they did previously.

A lack of regulation

But without clear guidelines, firms can exploit loopholes and mislead investors.

This lack of oversight erodes trust and credibility in the industry. AI washing may also stifle innovation. If investors are made to become? skeptical about AI, they’re less likely to invest in legitimate AI-powered solutions in future. This can slow down the development of truly groundbreaking technologies.

It is crucial to deal with AI washing, echoing the cautionary tale of the dot-com bubble. Much like the exaggerated promises and speculative fervor surrounding internet companies which led to market turbulence and investor scepticism in the late 1990s, the hype surrounding AI capabilities in finance poses similar risks.

AI washing could lead investors to pour money into AI-related ventures without fully understanding the risks or potential limitations, ultimately exposing them to financial losses when the bubble bursts.

The European Union AI Act is the first regulation in the world to govern the use, development, disclosure and oversight of AI. But in Australia there are no specific laws. Regulation currently falls under the Corporations Act.

ASIC is currently considering ways to regulate AI link?, including formulating penalties for AI washing.

Holding companies accountable for accurate information about technology applications helps maintain the integrity of financial markets and ensures fairness for investors.

How to spot AI washing

So, how can you, as an investor or consumer, avoid falling victim to AI washing? Here are some tips:

1. Verify registration status and credentials

Before buying or investing in anything claiming AI capabilities, verify the investment company’s registration status and credentials by looking them up on the professional register. Ensure they have no disciplinary [history] is there meant to be a link here? by checking the Australian Securities and Investment Commission register.

2. Be cautious with AI-focused investments

Investing in AI-driven companies may seem promising, but be wary of companies that tout their “revolutionary” or “industry-leading” AI without providing specifics. What exactly makes their AI revolutionary? What problems does it solve? Companies that rely on empty buzzwords without concrete details are probably exaggerating their capabilities.

3. Boost your knowledge

Get a grasp of AI and machine learning basics. Learn common AI techniques and terms used in finance. There are a large number of free resources online for beginners.

4. Ask questions

Do not solely rely on AI-generated information for investment decisions. AI-generated data may be based on inaccurate or biased inputs?. Ask financial advisors and companies about their specific AI implementation. What kind of data are they using? How are their algorithms trained? What are the limitations of their technology?

5. Be sceptical of high returns with little to no risk

Be sceptical of financial products promising high returns with minimal risk, especially those claiming AI-powered success. This tactic is a common red flag for AI washing. Don’t rely solely on a company’s claims – conduct independent research by following the financial news or checking regulatory filings of companies before investing.

Read more:
Who will write the rules for AI? How nations are racing to regulate artificial intelligence

Angel Zhong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Beware businesses claiming to use trailblazing technology. They might just be ‘AI washing’ to snare investors – https://theconversation.com/beware-businesses-claiming-to-use-trailblazing-technology-they-might-just-be-ai-washing-to-snare-investors-226717

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Grubits, Historian, Charles Sturt University

Captain Moonlite, the bushranger known for the Egerton bank robbery of 1869 and the Wantabadgery outrage of 1879, is commonly thought to have been gay or queer. In recent years, his love for gang member James Nesbitt has been celebrated in art, music and theatre. Now the Heritage Council of New South Wales is considering adding the graves of Moonlite and Nesbitt to the State Heritage Register in recognition of their “publicly acknowledged same-sex relationship”.

The Heritage Council, however, has several issues to contend with. For one, the nature of the relationship between Moonlite and Nesbitt is not as sure and settled as has been assumed. For another, the headstone that now marks Moonlite’s grave obfuscates, rather than celebrates, his feelings for Nesbitt.

Meeting and memory

Andrew George Scott – the man behind the Moonlite moniker – met James Nesbitt in Pentridge Prison, Coburg, between 1875 and 1877. The two reunited on the outside in 1879, and Nesbitt followed Scott on his ill-fated trek into New South Wales where, with four other companions, they “stuck up” Wantabadgery Station.

In an ensuing confrontation with police, Nesbitt, August Wernicke (the youngest of Scott’s companions) and Constable Edward Mostyn Webb Bowen were all mortally wounded. Nesbitt and Wernicke were buried in unmarked graves in Gundagai Cemetery.

Scott and another of his companions, Thomas Rogan, were hanged for Bowen’s murder on January 20 1880. In the weeks leading up to this, as he awaited “the last dread sentence of the law” in a condemned cell in Darlinghurst Gaol, Sydney, Scott wrote numerous documents, including letters intended for friends, acquaintances, clergymen and Nesbitt’s parents. In these, he recorded he loved Nesbitt and wished to “fill the same grave” as him so they might be together forever.

Many of Scott’s letters were not sent and the wish they contained was not initially acted upon.

When Scott’s condemned-cell writings were rediscovered in the 1980s, they were swiftly assumed to reveal a romance. In the decades since, it has almost become a commonplace that Scott was homosexual and Nesbitt his lover.

Hidden histories

Determining the nature of a relationship from the past can be a complex matter. It requires, among other things, a sophisticated understanding of how emotions were expressed and how language was used in the relevant context. Phrases used to express romantic love today were not necessarily used in the same ways in the past.

Modern-day terms and concepts, from “homosexual” to “gay”, are also of limited use in understanding and describing historical people and their relationships. Before these terms and concepts were current, people understood themselves, their desires and their intimacies in other ways.

Unfamiliarity with the past, a yearning for queer forebears, and present-day views on sexuality have prevented us from seeing Scott and Nesbitt’s relationship as anything but romantic (in the everyday sense of the word) and sexual. And yet Scott’s language about Nesbitt conforms closely to the 19th-century concept of manly love – a bond between men which was “passing the love of women” precisely because it was free from any sexual element.

It is also significant that one of Scott’s preferred words to describe Nesbitt was simply “friend”: he was, Scott wrote to supporter John Alexander Dowie, “the truest best friend that man ever had”. It was in memory of a male friend that Tennyson penned his famous lines:

Tis better to have loved and lost / Than never to have loved at all.

Moonlite’s motivations

Two vital points must be recognised when approaching Scott’s writings about Nesbitt.

The first is all of Scott’s expressions of affection post-date Nesbitt’s death – a violent death, suffered at a young age, in consequence of decisions made by Scott. At the time of writing, Scott was suffering from intense trauma and grief – and as much as any emotion, Scott’s writings are evidence of grief.

The second relates to Scott’s intent. In the wake of his death, Scott was seeking to craft a legacy for Nesbitt. Nesbitt had died ignobly, while resisting the police, and was destined to be remembered as nothing but a scoundrel bushranger. Scott, however, wished him to be remembered otherwise: as honourable, truthful and brave. He even portrayed Nesbitt as Christ-like.

While it remains a possibility Scott and Nesbitt were lovers, as is commonly thought, Scott conveying as much in his condemned-cell writings would have undermined the image of Nesbitt (and himself) he was desperate to establish before his voice was silenced.

Moonlite’s grave

Scott’s remains were finally reinterred in Gundagai Cemetery in 1995, and marked by a headstone which reads:

ANDREW GEORGE SCOTT
CAPTAIN MOONLITE
BORN IRELAND 8-1-1845
DIED SYDNEY 20-1-1880

“As to a monumental stone, a rough unhewn rock
would be most fit, one that skilled hands could
have made into something better. It will be like
those it marks as kindness and charity could have
shaped us to better ends.”
Andrew George Scott

Laid to final rest
near his friends James Nesbitt and Augustus
Wernicke who lie in unmarked graves close by.
Gundagai 13-1-1995.

This differs from what Scott specified in his condemned-cell writings: Nesbitt’s birth and death dates have been excluded, while Wernicke’s name has been added.

The quote is also an addition, albeit with a crucial omission: “As to the monumental stone for my friend and myself […]”. Without these italicised words, the visitor is led to infer that Scott intended his headstone to mark three people (himself, Nesbitt and Wernicke) and is distracted from Scott’s desire to occupy the grave of Nesbitt specifically.

Were the Heritage Council to proceed with its listing it would be both formalising a view of a historical relationship that is open to conjecture, and honouring a grave that deviates from the desires of the deceased.

Read more:
Friday essay: how a ‘gonzo’ press gang forged the Ned Kelly legend

Matthew Grubits does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Was famous bushranger Captain Moonlite definitely gay? An historian explains why it’s much more complicated – https://theconversation.com/was-famous-bushranger-captain-moonlite-definitely-gay-an-historian-explains-why-its-much-more-complicated-226813

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The Albanese government and the Australian public are currently focused on the cost-of-living crisis and its impact on household budgets.

For Australia’s longer-term economic outlook, the government is looking at reforms that are needed to increase competition and our flat-lined productivity.

Andrew Leigh is in the middle of this debate. He’s Assistant Minister for Employment and Assistant Minister for Competition, Charities and Treasury. In a speech he delivers on Thursday, Leigh homes in on one issue inhibiting competition which affects a surprising number of workers – “non-compete” clauses that ban people from competing with their former employer, for a certain time, or in a specific geographical area, or even both.

Andrew Leigh joined the podcast to talk about this and other competition issues, including the push from some advocates for the government to legislate for power to break up companies that behave badly. We also venture into the territory of Australia’s duopolistic party system, where the voters are trying to inject a bit more competition by supporting “community candidates”.

On why the Australian economy needs competition reform, Leigh says:

If you look at the Australian economy, you do see an economy which is, at the very top, strikingly similar to what it was 40 years ago. Whereas in other countries you’ve seen much more turnover, churn, dynamism, more productive job creation.

On supermarkets, accused by many consumers of misusing their market power:

We do have a very concentrated supermarket sector in Australia, and much more concentrated than a typical European country or, say, the United States.

We’ve now got Craig Emerson, the former competition minister and one of Australia’s very best policy economists, looking at whether the food and grocery code of conduct should be made mandatory. That’s looking hard at the supplier side. Then we’ve got the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission doing a whole-of-economy analysis of the supermarkets’ impact, but also looking at the consumer side, things such as loyalty schemes and how they play out for consumers.

But Leigh is not a supporter of the divestiture route:

If you look at the Harmer review or the Hilmer review, they didn’t recommend divestiture powers. The ACTU has said they’re concerned about divestiture powers, through the potential impact on workers at those firms. The National Farmers Federation has argued against them. So they’re not the government’s priority right now. We’ve got the competition task force in Treasury looking at non-compete clauses, looking at merger reform, looking at the way in which the data digital net zero economies can remain competitive.

Finally, what about competition in federal politics where voters are shifting away from the major party blocs towards small parties and independents? Leigh sees both sides:

It is healthy for us to be kept on our toes, whether it’s by opposing teams or by opposing individuals. I like and respect many of the independents who have joined the house over the time since I came into parliament in 2010. And political competition is just part and parcel of a healthy democracy.

Sometimes it’s undersold, but the strength of a political party is the strength of teamwork, that you can really work together to come up with a set of policies that are better than any individual could come up with on their own.

That interplay when a political party is operating well is something that no individual independent can match.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Andrew Leigh on competition – economic and political – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-andrew-leigh-on-competition-economic-and-political-227048

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Anthony Albanese will stress his government is “pro-business and pro-worker” in a Thursday speech declaring the dynamism of small business is vital for Australia to succeed in the global economic race.

The Prime Minister’s address to a small business conference, released ahead of delivery, seeks to refute the argument of some in the business community who maintain the government is too pro-union, especially in its workplace policies.

“We will always champion good jobs, fair wages and decent conditions for working people,” Albanese says.

“Equally, we understand that there are no good jobs, fair wages or decent conditions for employees, without employers.

“That’s the constructive and balanced approach we’ve sought to bring to our industrial relations reforms.”

Listing various reforms the government has made, including changes to bargaining provisions and protections for casuals, Albanese says: “All this matters because if companies are able to exploit loopholes, cut corners and undermine wages, then it’s never just workers who lose out, good employers who do the right thing and play by the rules get hurt too.

“That’s why our government has made a point of working with big firms, small businesses and unions on these changes. Because we understand that reforms which create a better system and a level playing field serve everyone’s interests.”

Albanese praises small business as central “to the continuing growth and resilience of our economy, from our suburbs to the regions”.

Very often, small businesses “are the first-movers, the early adopters.

“Small businesses change and adapt and modernise because that’s how you stand out from the pack and stay ahead of it.

“Small businesses move fast because you understand there’s not a minute to waste. And small business understands that investment can’t just be about scale – it has to be about strategy, about building on what you do best.

“There are valuable lessons for our nation in all of this. Because right now there is a global economic race underway.

“Every advanced economy in the world is competing for a new generation of jobs, investment, prosperity and productivity.

“And every advanced economy is grappling with the challenges of global inflation, the long tail of the pandemic, the uncertainty of conflict and the transformative impact of new technologies.

“For Australia to compete and succeed in this environment, we need to show the dynamism and drive of small business,” Albanese says.

He says that in next month’s budget, “small businesses and families will again be front and centre in our thinking”.

Lauding small business having “consistently led the nation in embracing solar power,” he says: “Today, nearly one in three small businesses have rooftop solar. And nearly one in five have a battery storage system. That speaks to a sense of environmental responsibility – but also a practical, commercial reality.”

Deriding Peter Dutton’s spruiking of nuclear in his Wednesday speech to the conference, Albanese says the government, like small business, “is focused on what works and focused on what will make a difference here and now, as well as deliver for the long term.

Read more:
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“Solar power is reliable, fast and affordable – and all the more so when combined with storage.

“One in three small businesses with solar is a great start – and I’m confident that with the right investments and support and the continuing advances in technology, that number will continue to rise.”

Albanese also takes a crack at Dutton’s complaint to the conference that business leaders express their frustrations about the government in private but are loath to be vocal publicly.

“I did see when my opponent came here yesterday he warned you about being ‘supine’ and ‘silent’. Demanding that you criticise the government more loudly and more often. Trying to drag you into his politics of negativity and conflict.

“I think more of you than that and our government has more respect for small business than that.

“That’s why we want to keep working with COSBOA [the Council of Small Business Organisations Australia] and with all of you – on industrial relations, on energy, right across the economic agenda.

“Because unlike our opponents, we don’t think co-operation is a sign of weakness and we’re not interested in talking you down or talking the economy down.

“We respect your right and your capacity to constructively represent your members and to build better outcomes, based on consensus.”

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. We are ‘pro-business and pro-worker’: Albanese – https://theconversation.com/we-are-pro-business-and-pro-worker-albanese-227047

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dee Ninis, Earthquake Scientist, Monash University

Earlier today, a major earthquake of magnitude 7.4 struck the central east coast of Taiwan, roughly 20 kilometres south of the city of Hualien.

Locals near the epicentre described severe to violent ground shaking during the quake – strong enough to make standing and driving a vehicle difficult. It was reportedly felt across the country, as well as in neighbouring China.

So, what do we know so far about the quake and what the impacts may be?

Read more:
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Death and damage

News outlets have reported at least four people have died and dozens were injured as a result of the quake.

While much of Taiwan’s population lives on the west coast of the country, Hualien City is one of the largest population centres on the east coast. Its population is roughly 100,000.

Building damage has been reported in the region near the epicentre of the earthquake, including in Hualien City.

Landslides also occurred along the mountainous central east coast.

A tsunami warning was issued for Taiwan and nearby countries including Japan and the Philippines. At the time of writing, a 30 cm tsunami was reported along the south coast of Japan. This would have shown up as a noticeable swell on the shore but is unlikely to cause significant damage.

The biggest surge in a tsunami is not always the first surge so it is possible a larger tsunami wave may eventuate, but as time passes this becomes increasingly unlikely.

Was there any warning?

Although earthquakes cannot be predicted, Taiwan has an early warning system.

This system detects ground shaking as it happens in the epicentral region, and immediately sends an alert which travels faster than the seismic energy and associated ground shaking.

It likely provided crucial seconds of warning for those living away from the epicentre to take cover.

What kind of quake was it?

Initial estimates suggest the earthquake rupture began between 10 and 40 kilometres beneath the earth’s surface.

A shallower earthquake will generally produce stronger ground shaking than a deeper earthquake, and is therefore more likely to result in damage to nearby buildings.

The latest analysis of data from this earthquake suggests the earthquake was at the shallow end of this range, and likely produced a rupture which broke the surface. Satellite data of the Earth’s surface will tell us more about ground deformation within the coming days.

The earthquake rupture occurred on a reverse fault. This is where the quake lifts up one side of the Earth’s crust relative to the other. This can produce a vertical displacement of the ocean floor, which can generate a tsunami.

Approximately three hours after the initial quake, there have already been 13 aftershocks greater than magnitude 5.0 – all large enough to produce their own ground shaking across much of the country.

Strong aftershocks may cause the collapse of buildings that were only damaged in the main shock.

A history of quakes in the area

The Hualien region has experienced earthquakes before.

In February 2018, this region produced an earthquake of magnitude 6.4, which sadly resulted in 17 deaths.

That earthquake was the main event of a sequence of seismic events in early 2018, including a foreshock of magnitude 6.1. A foreshock is an earthquake of smaller magnitude which precedes a larger earthquake in the same region within days or weeks. We don’t know a quake is a foreshock until the mainshock occurs.

According to my analysis of available earthquake data, the Hualien region experiences earthquakes bigger than magnitude 7 about once every 30 years.

The largest recent recorded earthquake in onshore Taiwan was the magnitude 7.6 Chi-Chi quake (sometimes spelled in English as the Jiji quake) that struck in 1999.

More than 2,400 people lost their lives as a result of this earthquake.

Today’s magnitude 7.4 earthquake will likely continue to produce aftershocks for days and weeks to come.

We can’t rule out the possibility today’s earthquake was not even the biggest event in this sequence, although as time passes the likelihood of a larger associated event decreases.

Where can I get more information?

Be cautious about what you see or read on social media; in the initial aftermath of a natural disaster people often share footage that actually depicts other disasters.

For updates, I recommend following Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration, which is reporting on aftershocks and tsunami warnings as more information comes to hand.

Read more:
Earthquakes can change the course of rivers – with devastating results. We may now be able to predict these threats

Dee Ninis works for Seismology Research Centre, and is Vice President of the Australian Earthquake Engineering Society.

– ref. Taiwan earthquake: an earthquake scientist on what we know so far and what may happen next – https://theconversation.com/taiwan-earthquake-an-earthquake-scientist-on-what-we-know-so-far-and-what-may-happen-next-227051

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jayden Greenwell-Barnden, Cognitive Psychology Researcher, The University of Western Australia

Guy Ritchie’s The Gentlemen (2024) is the latest series to reimagine the age-old trope with which it shares its name.

So what exactly is a “gentleman”? And why has this trope remained so pervasive throughout history, both off and onscreen? Psychology provides some answers.

The origins of the gentleman

The term comes from Middle English, spoken in England from about 1100 to 1500. It relates to the English gentry, which was the class below nobility but above farmers, and is a direct translation of the earlier French term gentilz hom, denoting a man of high status.

Studies of linguistic psychology from the 1980s found the word “gentleman” is associated with higher competence and warmth, and rated as having more positive connotations, including of goodness and morality, than just “man”.

Today, the concept of the gentleman remains ingrained in Western culture and is widely reflected in film and television. And while it could be considered outdated (given its association with class), there are many positive lessons we can learn by delving into the psychology and representation of this ideal.

A gentleman is power restrained

We’ve seen countless gentlemen characters feature in popular shows such as Suits, Mad Men, Sherlock, Highlander and Downton Abbey, to name a few. And all of these characters share the common trait of having some form of power – whether it be physical, political, economic or social.

Onscreen gentleman show us real power is restrained. In the first episode of The Gentlemen, although Eddie (Theo James) is combat-trained, he restrains himself from violence, even when mugged or threatened by thugs. This portrayal is rooted in the historical notion of the “gent” as a man of authority whom others ask for help. (The fact that his character is later corrupted remains a different story.)

Physical restraint requires emotional restraint, or avoiding extreme emotional reactivity in adverse situations. Psychology studies indicate men who demonstrate emotional restraint are viewed as more intelligent and competent. Restrained power fits neatly into the gentleman trope and is considered a positive value in Western culture.

Another example of restrained power is seen is the character Harvey Specter, from Suits (2011-19). As a boxer, Harvey is physically strong, but he also commands power through his wealth and skills as a lawyer. While he leverages his reputation in aggressive legal tactics, this is often done to help less privileged clients fight corporations.

Other examples are Mycroft Holmes from Sherlock, Aziraphale from Good Omens and Raymond Reddington from The Blacklist.

A gentleman has honour

Another trait shared by gentleman characters is “honour”. Cultural psychology has defined honour as maintaining reputational status through “integrity, honesty, being true to one’s principles […] not tolerating disrespect and insults, and protecting oneself and one’s family, group or clan from face loss and reputational harm”.

This is exemplified in Jamie Fraser from Outlander (2014–ongoing), who is consistently loyal to his family. He also embodies physical strength and political authority as the lard (chief) when fighting for Scotland and his clan. John Watson from Sherlock, Jim Halpert from The Office (US) and Agent Leroy Jethro Gibbs from NCIS also come to mind.

These characters can help to remind young boys and men of a pervasive cultural logic: that their behaviours determine their social acceptance, and that using their skills and strengths for others’ benefit will positively impact how others perceive them.

A gentleman is clever

A third quality of the gentleman is that of mastery or cleverness. In the new series Shōgun (2024), a Japanese feudal lord called Yoshii Toranaga (Hiroyuki Sanada) shows great cleverness in evading his enemies. Early on in the series, he says:

A leader must write clearly and beautifully. He must be the very best in all things.

This demonstrates one aspect of our cultural understanding of the “gentleman”, wherein we associate competence and intelligence with power.

Patrick Jane from The Mentalist also typifies this through his ability to cleverly gain information from criminal suspects.

We don’t have to delve far into psychology to understand why intelligence is a likeable trait. It helps us learn from experience, solve problems and adapt to new situations, benefiting both us and the people we associate with.

What we can learn from onscreen gentlemen

The gentleman can be considered an archetypal figure: an ideal example of a certain kind of person that we can all recognise. The reason for our universal recognition of such archetypes comes from psychologist Carl Jung’s (1875-1961) idea of the “collective unconscious”.

Jung theorised certain types of characters or concepts represented in images (such as in art or on TV) are innately recognised by humans, rather than consciously learned (and rejected the idea that people are born as a blank slate). These concepts, he said, provide a framework to interpret the world that’s shared across peoples and cultures.

Of the 12 archetypes Jung proposed, the gentleman could be considered an example of “the ruler” – a person driven by their desire to control in order to somehow help or provide for their clan or community. Others include the “trickster/jester” and “the sage”.

The application of archetypes to onscreen characters is well established. Depictions of a “ruler” provide a short-hand to represent the world. In recognising them, viewers can tap into their own innate understanding of particular patterns of behaviour.

Gentleman characters represent an ideal of positive masculine behaviour, embodying honour, strength and cleverness in their actions, which are generally directed at helping others.

And while the class-based roots of this concept can’t be ignored, delving into the underlying psychology at play reminds us we could all learn a thing or two from this trope.

Read more:
‘Toxic masculinity’: what does it mean, where did it come from – and is the term useful or harmful?

Jayden Greenwell-Barnden does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Netflix’s new drama shows we’re still drawn to the concept of ‘gentlemen’. Psychology explains why – https://theconversation.com/netflixs-new-drama-shows-were-still-drawn-to-the-concept-of-gentlemen-psychology-explains-why-224751

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rick Sarre, Emeritus Professor of Law and Criminal Justice, University of South Australia

Just when we thought the defamation action brought by Bruce Lehrmann against Network Ten and journalist Lisa Wilkinson over their February 2021 report on The Project was about to be finalised, another twist appeared.

Justice Michael Lee was to hand down his decision on the matter, which went to trial for a month last year, on Thursday morning. That’s now been delayed.

The reason? Lawyers for Network Ten were successful in convincing the Federal Court it should hear fresh evidence not raised during the trial.

This course of events puts the credibility of not just the trial witnesses under the microscope, but also that of two of Australia’s biggest media organisations.

Read more:
A win for the press, a big loss for Ben Roberts-Smith: what does this judgment tell us about defamation law?

What happened in court?

Advocates for the defendant (Network Ten) received an affidavit and accompanying materials from a former Seven Network producer that appeared to contradict Lehrmann’s evidence in the witness box.

In any trial, civil or criminal, the credibility of witnesses is crucial.

Invariably, where there are conflicting testimonies, a judge has to make a determination about whose evidence is to be preferred. So the credibility of Lehrmann’s testimony is vital to his case. To challenge it, the defendants applied to the court to reopen the case, and they were successful yesterday.

As a result, Justice Lee’s judgement will be delayed by at least a week.

This is a highly unusual practice. Parties are required at the commencement of any trial to disclose who their witnesses will be. Only a very confident litigant would test a judge’s patience in this way by calling a surprise witness.

Indeed, the credibility of a lawyer’s entire case may be at risk if the fresh evidence falls short. A trifling matter, one that was not compelling, would not impress any judge.

As it happened, Justice Lee was satisfied the new evidence, if credible, would be fresh and compelling. He added he wanted to “let sunlight be the best disinfectant”.

The surprise witness, former Seven Network producer Taylor Auerbach, is likely to be called to the stand during the next couple of days to be examined under oath and cross-examined. Network Ten may choose not to call him, of course, and simply tender into evidence his affidavits and accompanying materials.

Network Ten’s barrister, Matthew Collins, will allege Lehrmann provided Auerbach with more than 2,000 pages of “deeply personal exchanges” between Brittany Higgins and her former boyfriend. Collins will allege these exchanges had been received by Lehrmann while he was defending allegations he had raped Higgins in 2019.

Read more:
Why was Bruce Lehrmann given the all-clear to sue media for defamation? A media law expert explains

In whatever form it appears, Auerbach’s testimony will be championed by Network Ten, as they claim it renders Lehrmann’s own testimony unreliable, and damages his credibility and his factual accounts.

The Seven Network has already denied Auberach’s account of the events, calling it “false and misleading”. The cross-examination of Auerbach, if he is called by Lehrmann’s barrister, will be fierce.

If Auerbach does give evidence, it is likely Lehrmann himself will take the stand again to give his response to these anticipated revelations.

Will this make a difference to the outcome?

It is very difficult to say. The evidence, if accepted, will weigh heavily into the credibility of the testimonies of those who have given evidence, especially that of Lehrmann, and the crucial findings of fact in the case.

Lehrmann’s criminal rape trial ended in October 2022 when Australian Capital Territory Chief Justice Lucy McCallum determined there had been juror misconduct. Lehrmann has always maintained his innocence and hasn’t been convicted of any crime.

Collins will allege Lehrmann was in breach of what is referred to in legal practice as the “Harman undertaking”

This undertaking (arising from a British case 40 years ago) applies to all parties in legal proceedings and insists they not use information gathered in preparation for a trial for any purpose unrelated to the trial.

Justice Lee commented yesterday the fresh evidence was capable of changing the determination of facts in the case and agreed with Collins that it went further than merely a question of credibility. Like all evidentiary material, it will further inform Justice Lee’s deliberations, as will any other evidence that emerges that will attempt to disparage it.

Trials through a camera lens

The enormous pressure on all parties has been exacerbated by the media’s involvement in the case at every stage, going back to 2021.

Lehrmann launched his defamation case against Network Ten and Wilkinson safe in the knowledge that no adverse finding had been made against him in the criminal trial.

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He also has the advantage in defamation law that while the onus is on him to prove that the statements made against him, and the alleged defamatory meanings (or imputations, as they’re legally called) were, in fact, defamatory, he doesn’t have to prove that they are false.

The onus is on the defendants to successfully claim one of the defences to defamation, in this case, contextual truth. Contextual truth is a complete defence against defamation if at least one of the imputations is proven to be substantially true and the remaining imputations do no further harm to the plaintiff’s reputation. Network Ten needs this new evidence to push home its case that contextual truth has been established.

Into the mix comes the Seven Network, whose former producer’s ethics and practices are now under scrutiny. Both networks are well-funded. Their credibility, as much as the witnesses who have appeared in this trial, is also at stake.

This complex tale has at least one more chapter yet to run.

Rick Sarre does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. A judgement in Bruce Lehrmann’s defamation trial against Network 10 has been delayed. What’s going on? – https://theconversation.com/a-judgement-in-bruce-lehrmanns-defamation-trial-against-network-10-has-been-delayed-whats-going-on-227039