Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sara Webb, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Centre for Astrophysics and Supercomputing, Swinburne University of Technology

Why do we think there is a possible planet X? – Courtney, Year 5, Victoria

Hi Courtney, what a great question!

Our Solar System is a pretty busy place. There are millions of objects moving around – everything from planets, to moons, to comets and asteroids. And each year we’re discovering more and more objects (usually small asteroids or speedy comets) that call the Solar System home.

Astronomers had found all eight of the main planets by 1846. But that doesn’t stop us from looking for more. In the past 100 years we’ve found smaller distant bodies we call dwarf planets, which is what we now classify Pluto as.

The discovery of some of these dwarf planets has given us reason to believe something else might be lurking in the outskirts of the Solar System.

Read more:
Curious Kids: Why does it matter if Pluto is a planet or a dwarf planet?

Could there be a ninth planet?

There’s a good reason astronomers spend many hundreds of hours trying to locate a ninth planet, or “Planet X”. And that’s because the Solar System as we know it doesn’t really make sense without it.

Every object in our Solar System orbits around the Sun. Some move fast and some slow, but all move abiding by the laws of gravity. Everything with mass has gravity, including you and me. The heavier something is, the more gravity it has.

A planet’s gravity is so large it impacts how things move around it. That’s what we call its “gravitational pull”. Earth’s gravitational pull is what keeps everything on the ground.

Also, our Sun has the largest gravitational pull of any object in the Solar System, and this is basically why the planets orbit around it.

It’s through our understanding of gravitational pull that we get our biggest clue for a possible Planet X.

Unexpected behaviours

When we look at really distant objects, such as dwarf planets beyond Pluto, we find their orbits are a little unexpected. They move on very large elliptical (oval-shaped) orbits, are grouped together, and exist on an incline compared to the rest of the Solar System.

When astronomers use a computer to model what gravitational forces are needed for these objects to move like this, they find that a planet at least ten times the mass of Earth would have been required to cause this.

It is super-exciting stuff! But then the question is: where is this planet?

The problem we have now is trying to confirm if these predictions and models are correct. The only way to do that is to find Planet X, which is definitely easier said than done.

The hunt continues

Scientists all over the world have been on the hunt for visible evidence of Planet X for many years now.

Based on the computer models, we think Planet X is at least 20 times farther away from the Sun than Neptune. We try to detect it by looking for sunlight it can reflect – just like how the Moon shines from reflected sunlight at night.

However, because Planet X sits so far away from the Sun, we expect it to be very faint and difficult to spot for even the best telescopes on Earth. Also, we can’t just look for it at any time of the year.

We only have small windows of nights where the conditions must be just right. Specifically, we have to wait for a night with no Moon, and on which the location we’re observing from is facing the right part of the sky.

But don’t give up hope just yet. In the next decade new telescopes will be built and new surveys of the sky will begin. They might just give us the opportunity to prove or disprove whether Planet X exists.

Sara Webb does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Curious Kids: why do we think there is a possible Planet X? – https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-why-do-we-think-there-is-a-possible-planet-x-195016

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dara Conduit, ARC DECRA Fellow, The University of Melbourne

While international teams poured into Turkey to mount a furious search and rescue effort following the massive earthquake on February 6, the response on the other side of the border in Syria was catastrophically slow.

For days, Syrians remained stuck under the rubble in sub-zero temperatures waiting for help. However, the only vehicles that crossed the border from Turkey were trucks ferrying the bodies of the dead home for burial.

When the United Nations finally delivered aid to rebel-controlled northwest Syria four days after the quake, incredulous rescuers lamented that it appeared to have been packed for delivery before the earthquake. It contained less critically-needed supplies like nappies, instead of heavy machinery or disaster response supplies.

It took a full week for the Syrian government, which frequently blocks aid delivery to its opponents, to finally agree to open two additional border crossings from Turkey to allow more aid into northwestern Syria. But for many, this would come too late.

In the end, politics stood in the way of a humanitarian response that could have saved hundreds, if not thousands, of lives. The disaster unfolding before our eyes is almost entirely man-made.

An aid system mired in corruption and authoritarian politics

The more than decade-long Syrian civil war has reached something of a stalemate, but Bashar al-Assad’s regime has never regained control of the entire country.

While regime-held territory, including the cities of Aleppo, Latakia and Hama, sustained significant damage and loss of life in the quake, the worst affected part of the country is the rebel-controlled northwest, home to 4.6 million people.

Two-thirds of them have been displaced from other parts of Syria. And 4.1 million people were in desperate need of humanitarian assistance before the earthquake struck.

As of February 12, more than 4,400 people had been killed and 7,600 injured in the region. Thousands more remain missing, presumed dead.

Getting supplies into this part of Syria is not a new problem. The international community has struggled to get aid in throughout the war, leaving people increasingly vulnerable to a tragedy like the recent earthquake.

Aid is normally delivered to people via a country’s central government. However, in 2014, the UN Security Council passed a resolution to allow humanitarian assistance to be delivered to Syrians via four international border crossings, in order to help those beyond the reach of the UN’s Damascus-based aid program.

The Security Council has had to renew the resolution every six to 12 months, but following veto threats by Russia, humanitarian assistance was reduced to just the Bab al-Hawa crossing between Turkey and northwest Syria in 2020.

Russia maintains aid should be delivered via Damascus now that the war is mostly dormant. The regime, however, has been accused of stealing donations, manipulating foreign exchange rates to siphon off half of every aid dollar that’s donated, and withholding childhood polio vaccines from opposition-held territory.

The regime approved just nine UN aid deliveries between Damascus and northwest Syria between August 2021 and November 2022, highlighting the region’s almost-total dependence on aid coming across the border from Turkey.

Although experts have long argued the UN could legally use other border crossings, it has followed the Security Council resolutions to the letter.

The UN has also remained tight-lipped on the frustrations of its dealings with Damascus, apparently believing that preserving its relationship with Assad’s regime is essential to continuing the aid flows to the millions who need it inside government-controlled Syria and what little makes it to the rebel areas.

This has given the Assad regime obscene influence over aid delivery and made the UN complicit in one of the gravest failures of the international humanitarian system in recent history.

Read more:
Turkey-Syria earthquake: the challenge of delivering aid in a disaster zone

Wasting time on politics

The earthquake damaged the road leading to the Bab al-Hawa crossing, delaying urgent shipments of equipment and aid for days.

Syria’s UN ambassador, meanwhile, wasted no time in predictably declaring that Syria welcomed all international aid, provided it was directed via Damascus.

Always looking for an opportunity to exploit the suffering of its own people, the regime then cynically called for sanctions relief on the government, even though many experts argued humanitarian aid was already exempt from sanctions.

Read more:
Turkey-Syria earthquake: Assad blames west as agencies struggle to get aid to his desperate people

The US nevertheless announced a six-month suspension of sanctions to speed up aid deliveries. And legal experts renewed their calls for the UN to use the other functioning Turkish border crossings not damaged by the quake.

True to form, though, the UN maintained the status quo. When the Assad regime begrudgingly approved the use of two more border crossings from Turkey for the next three months, UN Secretary-General António Guterres could do little more than “welcome” the news.

While the additional crossings will temporarily increase the drip-feed of aid across the border, there had been no UN aid deliveries at all from Damascus to the rebel-held northwest at the time of writing.

Time was ultimately a luxury that Syrians did not have. While the UN danced around politics and convention, Syrians died under the rubble. A heartbroken Raed Saleh, the head of the White Helmets, who undertook much of the search-and-rescue efforts, said:

I want to begin with my apologies and deep regret to all families in all parts of Syria whose relatives we could not reach alive; just thinking about it pains our hearts. We were fighting helplessness and time to reach people alive.

The lack of adequate equipment is a big reason for this helplessness, but we swear to you that we worked and did our best.

Aid should go to groups on the ground instead

Correcting the UN’s failures is essential to preventing further loss of life.

First, the UN must find a way to protect its humanitarian mission from being held hostage by regimes that are indifferent to the plight of their own people.

While both Russia and Syria share much blame for weaponising aid, this crisis has been many years in the making and it is essential the UN takes responsibility for failing to challenge the status quo. It must now establish permanent humanitarian corridors to prevent further avoidable catastrophes.

Next, donor countries must reconsider their aid budgets given the UN system is failing to serve those most in need.

As the priorities in Syria now shift to recovery and reconstruction, wealthy states must funnel aid dollars to trusted partners on the ground in northwestern Syria, such as the White Helmets, Molham Team and Syrian Relief and Development. Individual donors should do the same.

These groups have almost single-handedly carried out the earthquake response so far, and will continue to do the heavily lifting for the foreseeable future.

Syria is on the brink of a secondary humanitarian disaster as a result of the lack of safe housing, electricity, sanitation and drinking water during a freezing winter. Now is the time for the international community to make things right by investing in reconstruction that benefits the Syrian people, rather than lines the pockets of Assad and his cronies.

Dara Conduit receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. As Syrians were trapped beneath the rubble, a broken UN system was held hostage by the Assad regime – https://theconversation.com/as-syrians-were-trapped-beneath-the-rubble-a-broken-un-system-was-held-hostage-by-the-assad-regime-199778

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Aaron Opdyke, Senior Lecturer in Humanitarian Engineering, University of Sydney

The death toll from the Turkey and Syria earthquakes has continued to climb, with more than 37,000 lives lost. This staggering number is likely to grow even higher over coming days as the rubble is cleared. The disaster is now among the top five most deadly earthquakes globally in the past two decades.

Much of the focus has centred on the immense loss of life in the immediate aftermath of the earthquakes. But many lives will still be at risk in the months to come. While hard to track, we know from other cases that death tolls rise because of a lack of adequate medical care, clean water and shelter following disasters.

These secondary crises can have devastating impacts, as past disasters around the world have shown.

Read more:
Turkey-Syria earthquakes: shallow depth of main shocks is a key reason why they’ve been so devastating

Toll can soar long after disaster strikes

In Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria in 2017, the immediate official count of 64 fatalities was adjusted to nearly 3,000 in the following six months. This tragic increase was attributed to deteriorating health conditions driven by the loss of infrastructure and basic services.

In northwest Syria, conflict spanning more than a decade has left infrastructure in tatters. The World Bank estimated in 2017 that more than a third of Syria’s housing stock had been damaged or destroyed in the conflict.

In a sign of the precarious state of buildings before the earthquake, a five-storey building collapsed last month, killing 16 people. Many blast-damaged buildings present an ongoing risk now that the quake has further destabilised them.

The earthquakes also come against the backdrop of a cholera outbreak. The disease was already affecting parts of Syria, but had received little attention.

After the 2010 Haiti earthquake, a cholera outbreak brought in by humanitarian workers took almost a decade to stamp out. There were more than 820,000 cases and nearly 10,000 lives lost.

Read more:
UN finally apologises for bringing cholera to Haiti – now it must match its words with funds

Last week’s earthquake has also occurred amid freezing winter conditions. Many displaced families are out in the cold after losing their homes. Temperatures in Kahramanmaraş – the epicentre of the magnitude 7.8 earthquake – and across quake-affected regions are plunging to -5°C at night.

Erecting adequate shelter to protect people from the cold must be a central focus of the evolving humanitarian response.

Read more:
Turkey-Syria earthquakes: a seismologist explains what has happened

Syrians were already in dire need

The situation in Syria was already dire before the earthquake. In northwest Syria, 90% of the 4.6 million people living there already were relying on humanitarian assistance to meet their basic needs.

Humanitarian access to northwest Syria remains complicated. There has been only a single aid border crossing, at Bab al-Hawa, brokered by the United Nations Security Council. As a sign of the difficulties accessing opposition-held areas of Syria, only two aid conveys had been able to cross from Turkey in the past week.

UN aid chief Martin Griffiths admitted shortcomings in reaching those in need:

We have so far failed the people in north-west Syria. They rightly feel abandoned. Looking for international help that hasn’t arrived.

Over the weekend, the United States approved a 180-day exemption on sanctions for disaster aid to Syria, paving the road for alternative pathways to reach opposition-held areas. However, Syrian government calls for all humanitarian assistance to be delivered through the government are fraught with issues given its track record of diverting aid over the past decade.

Read more:
Turkey-Syria earthquake: Assad blames west as agencies struggle to get aid to his desperate people

A long road to recovery

As rescue operations stretch into the second week, communities are already looking toward recovery. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has promised to rebuild areas hit by the earthquakes within a year. Syrian communities face the added challenge of rebuilding from conflict.

Lessons from similar disasters teach us affected communities have just started on a long road towards recovery and rebuilding.

As the continued challenges of humanitarian access make clear, it is important for local organisations working in northwest Syria to be at the centre of the response. The Syrian Red Crescent, Syrian Civil Defence (White Helmets) and other local organisations have played a vital role during the past decade of conflict and will no doubt do so again in coming weeks and months.

The recent earthquakes offer an opportunity to break through political barriers that have stifled rebuilding in Syria. However, the underlying vulnerability that compounded this disaster will not be resolved quickly. It is deeply embedded in social and political systems in both Syria and Turkey.

Read more:
Turkey-Syria earthquake: how disaster diplomacy can bring warring countries together to save lives

What can you do to help?

It can be tempting to donate goods, but consider giving cash to support humanitarian efforts, instead of sending physical items. Cash allows humanitarian organisations to adapt to rapidly changing needs, while also giving households flexibility to decide on their own priorities.

The Syria Cross-Border Humanitarian Fund is enabling humanitarian partners, particularly Syrian organisations on the ground, to access some of the hardest-to-reach areas affected by this disaster.

Aaron Opdyke consults for the Global Shelter Cluster on disaster recovery.

– ref. Secondary crises after the Turkey-Syria earthquakes are now the greatest threat to life – https://theconversation.com/secondary-crises-after-the-turkey-syria-earthquakes-are-now-the-greatest-threat-to-life-199682

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elizabeth Westrupp, Associate Professor in Psychology, Deakin University

Emotions are core to our human experience, but seeing “negative” emotions in our children – anger, fear, jealousy, envy, sadness, resentment – can make us uncomfortable.

Strong emotions in our kids may trigger our own emotional reactions, and we may feel lost about the best way to respond.

Many of today’s adults grew up not talking about emotions. But as modern parents, we’re told we need to teach our children about their feelings to build their resilience. So how can you encourage your children to talk about their feelings?

Research shows kids learn about emotions in four key ways: our parenting, how we explicitly teach them, our behaviour and the family environment.

Read more:
My kid is biting, hitting and kicking. I’m at my wit’s end, what can I do?

1) Our parenting helps kids name, express and manage emotions

As parents, we play an important role in helping children name, express and manage their emotions.

But this is often not easy. We might be comfortable teaching our children to recognise when they are hungry, tired and thirsty, but be focused on stopping children’s sadness, fears or anger, rather than on teaching about these emotions.

Everyone feels a range of emotions, and the “negative” emotions are not inherently bad. Emotions are signals that are important for our survival and help us to understand ourselves and our world. Children often “act out” their emotions, rather than talking about how they feel.

When we teach kids that all emotions are healthy, they learn to trust themselves, feel more comfortable sharing their feelings, and view emotions as brief experiences that pass.

So, what should we say in the moment?

1. Start by describing what you see or observe. “You sound sad/angry?” or “You are looking a little quiet.”

2. We often don’t know exactly what our child is feeling. Be tentative and check: “You look frustrated, is that right?”

3. Validate: “That situation was really hard, no wonder you’re frustrated.”

4. When our child is upset, we don’t need to say much. Try to listen and connect through eye contact and gentle touch. As University of Houston professor of social work and author Brené Brown reminds us, it is not about having the right words, but instead about offering support and connection.

5. Avoid trying to fix (problem-solve) or distract your child when they are emotional. Support kids to acknowledge and “sit with” their feelings.

6. Older children and teens may learn how to start masking their emotions, so we might only see their challenging behaviours. Imagine their behaviour is the tip of an iceberg, caused by emotions under the surface. Try connecting with their emotion rather than focusing only on the behaviour, “You slammed your door, are you feeling upset?”

2) Parents can explicitly teach kids about emotions

When everyone’s calm (not when you or your child are upset), we can teach kids about emotions.

We can start conversations about emotions based on almost anything your child is interested in, a TV show, video game, movie, or book they’re reading. A great movie for starting the conversation is Inside Out.

Read more:
Inside Out shows well-being isn’t just about chasing happiness

Watching emotions in fictional characters normalises emotions as a universal experience and helps kids to recognise more subtle types of emotions and different ways to express and manage emotions.

For older kids who’ve become more self-conscious, try having these discussions when not directly looking at them, in the car, or during an activity (walking, kicking a ball, watching a movie together). Some kids open up more at bedtime. Try to listen more and talk less.

3) Children watch and learn from us

Many of us grew up in families where parents did not teach us about emotions, or they were poor role models for expressing emotions in healthy ways.

If this is the case, it’s common to view emotions as bad and unhelpful, and believe it’s not good to dwell on feelings.

As a result, it can be hard to watch our children experiencing strong negative emotions. If you’re feeling triggered by your child’s emotion, it will help to pause. You can leave the room if necessary. It’s healthy to role-model to kids taking a break when we feel overwhelmed.

If we make a mistake as parents and act in ways we’re not proud of, this is a great opportunity to model to our kids how to make amends.

Explain what you were feeling, that your actions were not okay, and apologise. This gives kids a template for making amends themselves, which is a critical relationship skill.

If you often struggle managing your own emotions, learning about emotions is a good start. Two great books are:

1. Permission to Feel (Marc Brackett)
2. The A to Z of Feelings (Andrew Fuller and Sam Fuller).

Read more:
Anxiety can look different in children. Here’s what to look for and some treatments to consider

4) Kids are affected by relationships in the family

Emotions are contagious. Kids are affected by other relationships in the family, including conflict between parents.

Remember, conflict is a healthy human experience and cannot be eliminated.
Instead, it’s important to show kids healthy conflict, where we all express emotions in a respectful way.

It’s also important that kids see healthy conflict resolution.

Where can you get help?

Here are three evidence-based parenting programs focused on helping parents teach children about emotions:

• Tuning in to Kids/Teens focuses on the emotional connection between parents/carers and their children, from toddlers to teens

• Partners in Parenting is designed to help you raise your teenager 12-17 years to prevent depression and anxiety

• Circle Of Security Parenting improves child development by strengthening the parent-child attachment when children are aged 0-12 years.

Associate Professor Elizabeth Westrupp receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC, GNT2019442)

Dr Christiane Kehoe is co-author on the Tuning in to Kids suite of programs and receives royalties from the sale of the facilitator manuals used by clinicians who deliver the parenting groups.

– ref. How to get your kids to talk about their feelings – https://theconversation.com/how-to-get-your-kids-to-talk-about-their-feelings-194336

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ravi Naidu, Laureate Professor, University of Newcastle

They stop your food from sticking to the pan. They prevent stains in clothes and carpets. They help firefighting foam to extinguish fires. But the very thing that makes “forever chemicals” so useful also makes them dangerous.

Forever chemicals – the catchier name for the class of chemicals known as PFAS, per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances – don’t break down in the environment. Since we invented and began using them in the 1940s, these chemicals have stuck around, contaminating water and soil. And when they make it into our bodies, they can bind to proteins and accumulate in organs, which may increase your cancer risk or damage your health. Major manufacturers are now facing lawsuits over the potential health impact of the chemicals.

How do they make it into your body? There’s been a lot of concern over their presence in drinking water. But there’s another risk – food. Like many countries, Australia has long used biosolids as fertiliser. Made from processed stormwater and sewage, this soil-like substance adds vital nutrients to our notoriously poor soils.

The problem is, forever chemicals are now in biosolids. Even though the levels are low, authorities are expected to soon make a precautionary change to regulations which would prevent the use of biosolids, as we now understand crops can accumulate these chemicals and pass them on to us.

Thankfully there are ways of making these chemicals harmless.

Read more:
‘Forever chemicals’ are everywhere – here’s what you need to know about them

How exactly do these chemicals get into our food?

Most of Australia’s biosolids are used on farms as a type of fertiliser. While it might sound icky, this substance is vital. Similar to compost made with human waste, it’s processed by bacteria and dried for at least three years. So, it’s not that different from using cow or sheep manure on your garden.

Biosolids help maintain soil structure and help sequester carbon from the atmosphere. They’re essential for growing crops in Australia’s nutrient-depleted soils as they provide plants with nutrients and trace metals.

That’s why it’s so unfortunate forever chemicals have found their way here. PFAS was first discovered in biosolid waste in Australia in the early 2000s. The way it gets there is via domestic and industrial wastewater, which flows through stormwater drains and ends up being turned into biosolids at treatment plants.

Authorities are concerned PFAS may become more concentrated in future as we cycle it through our water and fertilisers, into our food, into our bodies, back through our waste systems and then eventually back to our fertilisers and so on.

If the chemicals are present only at very low levels, you might wonder if it matters. But these chemicals accumulate up the food chain. For example, a corn crop may contain only trace elements of PFAS chemicals. But if the corn is then fed to pigs, the pigs will end up with higher levels of PFAS over time.

We, too, are storing these chemicals in our bodies. The more we eat food with trace levels of PFAS, the more we accumulate – and the greater the health risk. That’s why prospective bans are being looked at – not just here, but around the world.

What should we do?

You might think we should immediately ban biosolids use on farms. Unfortunately, if we did that, there would be major flow-on effects.

Biosolids boost the sustainability of farming. Without them, small to medium crop farmers across Australia would have to buy more expensive fertiliser, which is usually synthetically produced from fossil fuels such as natural gas. What’s more, prices have soared, due to energy turbulence and war.

So banning biosolids would put food costs up even more. Water authorities providing biosolids would also need to stockpile them until we find new ways of processing this valuable resource. Stockpiling is expensive and not a permanent solution.

We need to be realistic. Rather than labelling all biosolids as contaminated PFAS waste, the government’s new plan should ideally lay out ways to minimise damage done by forever chemicals in biosolids.

Can we make these chemicals harmless?

Yes.

One option is to chemically lock PFAS chemicals, which means plants can’t absorb them – and can’t pass them on. Products which chemically lock PFAS are already available, and represent a relatively cheap solution to the problem.

This is precisely how we’ve handled trace levels of cadmium – a toxic heavy metal – in farming soils: we lock the cadmium away so it’s not available for plants to absorb.

Another option is to turn biosolids into biochar. If you heat up biosolids to very high temperatures without oxygen, the PFAS will break down and become harmless. All you’re left with is very useful biochar, a nutrient rich charcoal-like substance useful as fertiliser – and as a way to tackle climate change by storing carbon in the soil.

While water authorities are researching better ways of tackling the problem, it’s clear we’ll need a national and well-coordinated approach.

What can you do?

This isn’t a problem created by consumers, but there are ways to protect yourself.

While some cookware manufacturers no longer use PFAS chemicals, many still do. If it isn’t labelled PFAS-free then consider choosing stone, stainless steel, cast-iron or aluminium cookware instead. Unlabelled cookware is likely to have a coating of forever chemicals, which can wash down the drain – or cook into your food.

We still don’t have proper labelling of products containing PFAS. Many of us may be eating PFAS or smearing them on our skin without even realising. That’s because, worldwide, these chemicals aren’t being properly labelled.

Now that we’ve opened this chemical Pandora’s box, we can never fully close it. Forever chemicals will always be in our environment to some degree.

The challenge now is to use science, policy and consumer choices to reduce the levels as much as possible.

Ravi Naidu receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. ‘Forever chemicals’ have made their way to farms. For now, levels in your food are low – but there’s no time to waste – https://theconversation.com/forever-chemicals-have-made-their-way-to-farms-for-now-levels-in-your-food-are-low-but-theres-no-time-to-waste-192402

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kari Dahlgren, Research Fellow Emerging Technologies Research Lab, Monash University

Soaring energy costs are a major factor in Australia’s cost-of-living crisis. The conventional wisdom is people will reduce their energy use in response to rising prices – and this may be the case for the most vulnerable households. However, our research published today suggests rising costs of living are more likely to increase household energy use as people economise by doing more at home.

Our research shows people relate to energy through what it helps them do: feed the family, clean the house and stay healthy, comfortable and entertained. Energy itself is rarely the first consideration. When we understand energy as embedded in everyday life, the simple laws of supply and demand become complicated.

For example, in the face of the cost-of-living crisis, households are investing in home luxuries, our research shows. Rather than spending money on outside activities, it’s going into upgrades and technologies that bring them fun, comfort and safety.

Many are adding air conditioning, air filtration, pools, spas, heated outdoor entertaining areas and bar fridges. They are adding or renovating sheds and outdoor areas to create extra living space. All these changes increase their energy use.

Drawing on a four-year study of households in Victoria and New South Wales, our research developed four scenarios of everyday life in 2030 and 2050. In two scenarios, the home takes on an even more essential role in everyday life. This has significant implications for both energy forecasts and social inequality.

Read more:
Older Australians on the tough choices they face as energy costs set to increase

Why are people doing this?

Many people reason investing in a home cinema, kitchen appliance, spa or bar is more affordable than going out all the time. Setting up a home office may also be cheaper and more convenient than commuting.

For example, research participants Haruki and Sara (both pseudonyms) were converting a disused shed into a recreation space, complete with a television, video games, refrigerator, heating and cooling, and an electric drum kit. It would be a space where their three children spend their free time, but also serve as an office for Sara to teach music.

COVID-19 lockdowns were a strong impetus for these trends. Many people’s homes became their main site of work and play. They were schools, workplaces and gyms all in one. They also become a haven from the airborne threats outside.

Some might expect these trends to reverse with COVID restrictions lifted and the cost of living soaring. However, our research shows these expectations of the home are continuing and accelerating.

Read more:
Flexibility makes us happier, with 3 clear trends emerging in post-pandemic hybrid work

As activities like going on holidays, or going out for dinner, become more expensive, investing in the home makes sense. Staying home, even if it involves higher energy costs or buying new appliances, may still mean big savings for the overall household budget.

Our in-depth research provides a nuanced view of how diverse consumers will engage with the energy system beyond merely responding to energy prices. This evidence can help the sector improve forecasting and energy future scenarios. We provide resources to help incorporate aspects of our scenarios into industry modelling.

4 scenarios of everyday life in 2030 and 2050

Our team at Monash University’s Emerging Technologies Research Lab developed the Scenarios for Future Living report. It presents four scenarios of everyday life – two each in 2030 and 2050.

The scenarios are based on qualitative research with households in Victoria and New South Wales for the Digital Energy Futures project, as well as national data from the Energy Consumer Behaviour Survey. We studied people’s everyday routines, priorities and future visions, including the use of emerging digital and energy technologies. The scenarios also draw on broader demographic, technological, economic and environmental trends and the latest climate science.

One 2030 scenario, called “Creature Comforts”, envisions a world where, in response to rising living costs, households invest in consumer electronics and home upgrades. Energy use remains high as households seek to create a comfortable and safe haven.

Read more:
Top 10 tips to keep cool this summer while protecting your health and your budget

The 2050 scenario, “Hunkering Down”, takes this trend further. Homes are optimised to provide a safe, productive and comfortable refuge from extreme weather and climate change. Institutions regularly close due to more frequent extreme weather events. People who can afford housing and technology upgrades stay home, where additional spaces and advanced equipment enable most work, school, exercise and entertainment activities.

In the second 2030 scenario, “Sharing the Load”, households continue to invest, where possible, in solar panels, household batteries and electric vehicles. They prioritise being resourceful and generous with excess power by sharing it with others.

Read more:
How to maximise savings from your home solar system and slash your power bills

In the second 2050 scenario, “Sunrises and Siestas”, institutions and society adapt to climate change through policy and community initiatives and infrastructures. The home remains important to people’s safety and comfort – but there are more services and technologies that ease the financial pressures on households due to their energy use.

Energy planning must take account of inequalities

To bring these scenarios to life, we created narratives for three households: a wealthy and technology-savvy suburban household, a low-income renter, and a retired rural household. Following these households across each scenario reveals the varying impacts on households of different socio-economic and geographic backgrounds.

Wealthy households can afford to insulate themselves from external threats. They manage changing conditions by upgrading their homes. In contrast, people without the means to invest in such upgrades are left exposed to rising costs and extreme weather conditions.

Our research has critical implications for energy policymakers and industry. It underscores the need for a sophisticated, comprehensive approach to considering people’s lives, social change and household investment. Energy planning must account for how various futures can amplify or reduce inequities.

Read more:
Energy poverty in the climate crisis: what Australia and the European Union can learn from each other

Kari Dahlgren and the Digital Energy Futures Research was funded by the Australian Government through the Australian Research Council’s Linkage Projects funding Scheme (‘Digital Energy Futures’ project number LP180100203) in partnership with Monash University, Ausgrid, AusNet Services and Energy Consumers Australia.

Yolande Strengers receives funding from the Australian Government through the Australian Research Council’s Linkage Projects funding Scheme (‘Digital Energy Futures’ project number LP180100203) in partnership with Monash University, Ausgrid, AusNet Services and Energy Consumers Australia.

– ref. Future home havens: Australians likely to use more energy to stay in and save money – https://theconversation.com/future-home-havens-australians-likely-to-use-more-energy-to-stay-in-and-save-money-199672

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Leslie Loble, Industry Professor & Paul Ramsay Foundation Fellow, University of Technology Sydney

ChatGPT and its powerful capacity to generate original text has taken the education sector by surprise. Not only are universities hurrying to adapt to it, schools are also grappling with this new technology.

NSW and most other states blocked the tool in public schools, to protect students from possible misinformation and curb cheating. But South Australia has allowed use of ChatGPT, in part so students can better learn and understand the potential and risks of artificial intelligence.

The range of responses to ChatGPT shows how education has yet to figure out the best way to use such tools.

ChatGPT is also just the latest example of technology coming into classrooms. Education technology (or “edtech)” is a common – and rapidly growing – part of day-to-day learning. But we need to understand it better.

Edtech in Australian schools

The global edtech market is estimated to be worth about US$300 billion (A$432 billion). More than one billion students globally are expected to use edtech by 2025. Google and Microsoft are major players, but investment is also increasingly fueled by China, India and the European Union.

Edtech includes teaching support platforms, with sample lesson plans, tasks, games and tests. It also includes AI-backed personalised learning tools to help with maths, literacy and other school subjects. As of 2019, Australian teachers were using an estimated 250 different types of edtech, although there is no reliable number of how many use AI.

Read more:
The ChatGPT chatbot is blowing people away with its writing skills. An expert explains why it’s so impressive

We already know some of these edtech tools are having positive results, including in disadvantaged areas. Studies suggest adaptive tutoring, which adjusts to the precise needs and level of the individual student, is especially promising.

Edtech also allows for more personalised assessment. As students move through a lesson answering questions, they can automatically get feedback, find additional instruction and branch into easier or harder content as needs be. Most importantly, teachers get detailed insight to student progress that allows them to adjust their teaching to better match what students need.

But despite these advancements, we also know edtech delivers the best results when the tools are based on proven teaching techniques. Poorly designed tools also can undermine education. In the United States, national funding laws now push school districts to make sure edtech and other teaching tools are independently evaluated for positive impact.

There are significant risks to these tools as well, especially around privacy and the marketing of student and teacher data collected when they use the tech. These risks increase if autonomous AI is behind the tool.

How can we prepare for more edtech in schools?

With a rapidly expanding edtech market, it’s easy for teachers and parents to be confused about what’s on offer, how to use it and whether it will help students learn.

ChatGPT highlights quickly products are emerging and how quickly education systems will need to respond. We need governments to be shaping what and how technology is used in classrooms to ensure high quality, safe products and avoid being caught by surprise.

Globally, some steps are underway. The EU has adopted a comprehensive digital education plan, the US has created a dedicated national edtech office, and the United Kingdom and Singapore want to use edtech to tackle specific learning needs.

Read more:
As more biometric data is collected in schools, parents need to ask these 10 questions

What Australia needs to do

Australia also needs to ramp up government leadership in managing the opportunities and risks that come with this edtech. This includes:

• quality requirements for the tech itself – including evidence it is based on education research

• professional learning and support for schools and teachers using it

• regulation and transparency around how student data will be collected, stored and used.

Independent websites in the US are also helping schools and families find high-quality learning resources (including digital tools). For example, EdReports assists teachers to evaluate curriculum materials, while Evidence for ESSA reviews the quality of research behind claimed edtech impact.

What next

A growing body of research shows that high-quality education technology can be a powerful tool to improve student outcomes, particularly for students facing education disadvantage.

But not all edtech tools work well and much depends on how schools use them.

The most important impact of ChatGPT may be to galvanise governments and education systems to ensure Australian schooling can proactively and properly use edtech in our classrooms.

The next National School Reform Agreement offers the perfect opportunity to do this. This agreement ties federal, state, and territory funding mechanisms to lifting student learning outcomes. It is currently being negotiated and is due in December 2024.

It is important we use the opportunities provided by edtech, rather than edtech using us.

Read more:
Why is tech giant Apple trying to teach our teachers?

Leslie Loble receives funding from University of Technology, Sydney. She is affiliated with Paul Ramsay Foundation, which previously has provided funding for her fellowship and is a board member of the Australian Education Research Organisation and the Copyright Agency.

– ref. The rise of ChatGPT shows why we need a clearer approach to technology in schools – https://theconversation.com/the-rise-of-chatgpt-shows-why-we-need-a-clearer-approach-to-technology-in-schools-199596

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert Phiddian, Professor of English, Flinders University

A man hangs, precariously, high above the street, holding onto the girder of an unfinished skyscraper. Around his ankles, a second man holds on for dear life.

This is no scene of drama, but hilarity. The second man has pulled down the first’s pants in his desperation to hold onto life, and is lost in laughter. Grimacing, the first man growls:

For gorsake, stop laughing: this is serious!

Published in 1933, this is Australia’s most famous cartoon, drawn by Stan Cross.

Labelled an instant classic, bizarrely, this cartoon has twice been lost. Not only was the original artwork missing for eight decades, the National Library of Australia’s Trove database holds no record of its first newspaper publication.

These disappearances – and the diligent detective work required by those who recovered the cartoon – demonstrate deep flaws in the way Australia maintains our rich cartoon heritage.

Lindsay Foyle, longtime editorial cartoonist and honorary historian of the Australian Cartoonists’ Association, has been on the elusive cartoon’s trail for decades. With him, we recently published what we hope is the definitive account of its attempts to dodge the cartoon detective and escape the national record.

The search for the original

“Stop laughing” was published on July 29 1933 in Smith’s Weekly, known for its anti-authoritarian and nationalist stance.

Smith’s was a key part of a raucous Australian cartooning culture, then dominated by weekly publications whose cartoons provided both social commentary and political satire.

The production process started with a reader suggestion given to a young artist, and Smith’s lead cartoonist, Stan Cross, setting out to mentor him.

Cross became engrossed and finished the artwork and reworked the accompanying joke himself. Smith’s advertised and sold copies of the cartoon to meet huge public demand – inadvertently creating many false leads in the eventual search for the artwork.

Despite its instant popularity, the original artwork soon disappeared. Foyle’s many attempts to track it down, alongside ex-Smith’s staff and other cartooning historians were unsuccessful until 2014.

That year, at a community market on the central coast of New South Wales, a man approached cartoonist Rob Feldman to ask if he had heard of Cross’ cartoon.

It emerged Cross had given the original to Smith’s company secretary Arthur Ayers soon after publication. It had remained with the family for nearly 80 years.

Foyle and leading amateur comics scholar Nat Karmichael went on an expedition, and immediately recognised this as the original. They put the owner in contact with the National Library of Australia, where the restored artwork is now housed.

Read more:
In praise of the cartoonist – solitary, studious and searing

And the search for the digital

While tracking down the original is vital in art-historical terms, the most significant state of an editorial cartoon is really how it was first published in print.

From this perspective it is the second, digital disappearance of “Stop laughing” that raises the biggest concerns about Australia’s cartoon archive.

Original copies of historical newspapers are challenging to access, but in 2022 we expected it would be easy to find a digital copy of the cartoon through Trove, which digitises Australian newspapers and magazines.

But we found no sign of the cartoon at all in the July 29 1933 copy of Smith’s, or on any nearby date.

The first appearance of Cross’ famous cartoon is not until August 12, labelled “reprinted by request” and advertising copies for sale.

How had “Stop laughing” gone missing again? Was it all a marketing hoax from the 1930s – was it really only published for the first time in August, the requests for reprints being fake?

The real answer is almost as interesting. It was due to a minor but consequential theft from the newspaper collection of the State Library of New South Wales.

When transferring their print copy of the July 29 1933 Sydney edition to microfilm later in the 20th century, it had been noted by a careful archivist that pages three and four were missing, and so they were substituted with pages from the Queensland edition.

This new, hybrid edition then made its way onto Trove.

It was then “Stop laughing” disappeared from Trove’s digital archive. In fact, it had never been there.

The interstate editions – printed earlier to allow for transportation time – had published the cartoon on page 16. This might not have been an issue had the cartoon been published on the same page as in the Sydney version. However, it seems in the hours between editions, the editor decided to move this “instant classic” forward, and to size it up for greater effect. The substitution of pages three and four from Queensland created a hybrid with no trace of the cartoon.

A search of what is possibly the last surviving intact copy of the original NSW edition – held at the State Library of South Australia – allowed us to rediscover “Stop laughing” as it was originally published, and as seen by no one for decades.

It sits proudly on page three, larger than any other single-frame cartoon we’ve seen printed in Smith’s.

Preserving the archive

Australians pride themselves on their history of editorial cartooning.

We take the anti-authoritarian, larrikin nature of the humour, the relative freedom with which cartoons are published, and the good humour of those lampooned as signs of the health of our democracy.

And yet, we are surprisingly careless with our cartoons. There is no real rhyme or reason to what we keep, where we keep them, or how easy they are to find.

The dual disappearances of “Stop laughing”, decades apart, expose the patchiness and inaccessibility of Australia’s cartooning archive. There is an urgent need for a solution that develops and sustains the national collection, to preserve and make accessible our rich national cartoon heritage.

Read more:
Trove’s funding runs out in July 2023 – and the National Library is threatening to pull the plug. It’s time for a radical overhaul

The authors would like to thank Lindsay Foyle, who collaborated with us on this article. All are now in receipt of funding from the ARC for the “Cartoon Nation” Discovery Project.

Robert Phiddian receives funding for this project from the Ross Steele AM Fellowship at the State Library of New South Wales..

Richard Scully receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is affiliated with Australian Cartoonists’ Association.

Stephanie Brookes has previously received funding from JERAA, the Journalism Education and Research Association of Australia.

– ref. Cartoon detectives: how Australia’s most famous cartoon was lost and found – twice – https://theconversation.com/cartoon-detectives-how-australias-most-famous-cartoon-was-lost-and-found-twice-194450

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation’s politics team.

In this podcast Michelle and politics + society editor Amanda Dunn discuss the landmark Defence Strategic Review, handed to the government on Tuesday, which Defence minister Richard Marles describes as the “single most important re-evaluation of Australia’s strategic posture in the last 35 years”. The review, not yet released, comes ahead of a major speech on national security Anthony Albanese will deliver at the National Press Club next week.

They also canvass Peter Dutton’s Monday apology for boycotting Kevin Rudd’s 2008 Apology to the Stolen Generations, and the pile-on targeting Governor Phil Lowe over the Reserve Bank’s aggressive interest rates policy to bring down inflation.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Word from The Hill: Defence review goes to government; Dutton’s apology for boycotting Sorry; Phil Lowe under fire – https://theconversation.com/word-from-the-hill-defence-review-goes-to-government-duttons-apology-for-boycotting-sorry-phil-lowe-under-fire-199891

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Caitie Kuempel, Lecturer, Griffith University

Switching from meat to plant-based protein is one way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and consume less of the planet’s natural resources.

But while chicken and salmon are often considered better choices than red meat, how do we calculate their true impacts?

In our new research, we set out to quantify the environmental footprint of broiler (meat bird) chicken and farmed salmon production, considering greenhouse gas emissions, nutrient pollution, land or sea disturbance, and freshwater use.

With a more comprehensive understanding of the pressures on the environment from these food production systems, we can confirm both are better than beef or pork, and chicken is slightly better than salmon, but neither is as responsible as plant-based foods.

Environmental pressures add up

Environmental pressures from broiler chicken and farmed salmon occur not only on the farm where the animals are raised but also at the source of the feed.

Both chicken and salmon are typically fed legumes and grains such as soybean and wheat, as well as fishmeal and oil from herrings, anchovies and sardines. That’s why their environmental footprints cover both land and sea.

While farmed salmon and chicken are among the most environmentally efficient fed animal products from their respective realms, their production nevertheless puts considerable pressure on the environment.

Major sources of greenhouse gas emissions include energy used in these intensive farming operations, and methane and nitrous oxide from animal excrement. Farms can manage these emissions by choosing to use renewables, reducing energy use by being more efficient, and better managing animal waste.

Disturbance considers the land and sea area taken up by farm infrastructure as well as the area used to produce feed. On land, feed disturbance is more straightforward as land clearing displaces habitats and animals to grow crops. For fisheries, it is more complex since different types of fishing gear cause different levels of disturbance to habitats and fish are caught.

Freshwater is used to irrigate crops, provide drinking water for animals, and service water for cleaning pens and cooling animals.

Nitrogen and phosphorus from animal excrement and synthetic fertilisers can pollute the surrounding environment. Run-off or discharge into waterways is a major source of nutrient pollution, which can cause algal blooms.

We combined these four pressures into a single metric and mapped its distribution across the world.

This allowed us to understand where and how much environmental pressure chicken and salmon production exert on the environment to better inform food system sustainability.

Global environmental footprints: where does Australia stand?

We found farmed chicken and salmon have huge environmental footprints, but the vast majority (95%) were concentrated in just 5% of the world. The countries with the largest “chicken footprints” are the United States, China and Brazil. For salmon, Norway, Chile and the United Kingdom top the list. These countries are also the largest producers.

Australia seems to have more environmentally friendly farms for both chicken and salmon, compared with other countries.

For chicken, Australia just scrapes into the top 20 biggest producers (out of 224 chicken-producing countries) but is in the top tier for environmental efficiency at the farm site. We define efficiency as the environmental pressure per tonne of food produced.

For salmon, Australia is the sixth-largest producer (out of 11 commercially producing countries) and has the second best efficiency. Maintaining or improving this efficiency now and in the future will help make Australia a leader in sustainable food production.

Australia mostly produces crops for chicken and salmon feed, rather than marine ingredients. Several countries produce similar levels of feed with better feed efficiency scores, so there is room for improvement.

Chicken or salmon?

Compared with salmon, chicken has lower environmental efficiency across all categories except freshwater use. This can partly be explained by the bird’s life cycle: six or seven chickens can typically be produced in the same location in a given year, taking 6-8 weeks to reach slaughter weight, whereas salmon can take 12-24 months to reach harvestable size (excluding the land-based freshwater period).

Higher greenhouse gas emissions for salmon are likely due to the large source of greenhouse gas emissions form salmon waste in the form of nitrous oxide. Higher disturbance in salmon can be traced back to the large footprint of fishmeal and fish oil production from capture fisheries used in feed. We assumed no freshwater use in on-farm production of salmon, only crop feed production, explaning chicken’s higher freshwater use.

On the question of whether it’s better to eat one or the other, it’s worth considering local conditions and effects on the environment. High freshwater use in a drought prone area, for example, is likely to have more detrimental effects on habitats and species nearby.

In general, fed animals have higher environmental footprints than non-fed products such as crops and shellfish. But if you like to eat meat, then chicken and salmon are both good options compared with beef and pork.

Pathways to sustainability

Feed was a large source of environmental pressure in our study, accounting for 78% of broiler chicken and 67% of salmon pressures.

Some might be surprised that chicken has an environmental footprint in the sea. That’s because more than 520,000 tonnes of fishmeal and fish oil is used to feed chickens.

Similarly, salmon has a footprint on land. We found some 2.3 million tonnes of crops such as soybean and wheat were used in their feed.

Reducing the pressure on the environment from salmon and chicken farming would require changes to feed ingredients, where feed is sourced, or production areas. For example, because we included ocean disturbance from fisheries in our metric, we found that crops are generally more environmentally efficient feed ingredients than fishmeal or fish oil. However, this switch would likely increase the competition for resources, such as land and water, from these two production systems.

Novel feed ingredients such as microalgae, bacteria or insects have the potential to replace fish in feed, further reducing pressure on the environment from salmon and chicken farming, but cost of feed and affects on nutrition also need to be considered.

Manure management could also play a bigger role, as it contributes to both nutrient pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.

Blurring the lines between the land and sea

Our study provides fresh perspective to the debate around food system sustainability, with a big-picture view of the four main environmental pressures from chicken and salmon farming.

These production systems bridge the divide between land and the sea. Raising chickens involves extracting resources from the marine environment as well as cropland. Similarly, salmon are fed from both the ocean and the land.

This leads to questions over resource competition, production advancements in aquaculture relative to chicken production, and how changes in feed choice or availability may alter the footprints of these food sectors in the future.

But for now, on the important question of what to eat for dinner, it’s fair to say that both farmed salmon and chicken are environmentally friendly options, with chicken only slightly ahead on the sustainability stakes.

Of course, if you really want to do the right thing by the planet, you might like to reduce your meat intake and seek plant-based protein sources.

Read more:
Environmental footprint calculators have one big flaw we need to talk about

Caitie Kuempel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Farmed salmon or chicken? Environmental footprint research can guide eco-conscious consumers – https://theconversation.com/farmed-salmon-or-chicken-environmental-footprint-research-can-guide-eco-conscious-consumers-199773

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

Hundreds of thousands of us who took out fixed-rate mortgages in 2020 and 2021 are about to be hit with massive increases in payments.

After nine successive interest rate increases and at least two more to come, even those of us on variable rates will soon be paying as much as A$1,000 a month more.

With such an uncertain economic outlook, should we switch our super fund’s investment strategies from “growth” to “conservative”? Should we rent rather than buy while home prices fall?

We need answers to our financial questions – but they’re now much harder to get.

Five years ago, Australia had 28,000 financial advisers. Today there are 16,000. That’s according to a review of financial advice commissioned by the previous government and released by the Albanese government last week.

Thousands of advisers are leaving the industry each year. The ones that remain are charging far more than they used to – $3,710 is said to be common, up 48% in five years, and enough to turn many people away.

So how did it come to this? And what does the new report recommend we do to make it easier for more Australians to get good, more affordable financial help?

Fixing rorts, where even dead people paid a price

This is a story about how Australia, under successive Labor and Coalition governments, let aiming for what’s perfect get in the way of what’s good. Up until I read the Quality of Advice Review last week, I was guilty of doing it too.

For years, I argued we should make financial advice perfect: delivered by genuinely professional advisers, who weren’t receiving kickbacks from firms wanting access to our money. I also argued we should pay for that advice in full upfront, because, whatever the cost, the advice will save us money in the long run.

We needed to do something. Back before a series of explosive Four Corners reports and the 1999 Hayne royal commission into the financial services industry, advisers and the funds they pushed us towards sucked money out of our accounts and presented us with options that made money for them – rather than us.

Read more:
Royal commission scandals the result of poor regulation, not literacy

The consequences were shocking. Dead people were being charged for financial advice, and even for life insurance. Gym instructors and other “introducers” were used to lure people into products that charged unnecessarily high fees.

The professionals we now call investment advisers used to be called insurance salesmen. They were paid through commissions to beguile us into signing up for products that charged high fees and paid them high ongoing commissions.

Unintended results of tougher standards

Ahead of the Hayne royal commission, things began to change.

The Rudd Labor government outlawed commissions and introduced legislation requiring advisers to “place clients’ interests ahead of their own”. After winning government, the Coalition tried to undo the changes, before adopting just about the lot after Hayne reported.

It’s now illegal for financial advisers to accept commissions (although mortgage brokers and people who sell insurance still can) and illegal to offer advice that isn’t in the “best interests” of the customer taking almost everything into account. This makes it all but impossible for bank tellers and super funds to offer advice.

So I have been having second thoughts about the arguments I once made for no commissions, best interests, and lots of disclosure documents – especially after reading the Quality of Advice Review. Ironically, its release was largely drowned out by coverage of Australians’ growing financial stress.

The report’s author Michelle Levy is a senior lawyer and expert on superannuation, life insurance, distribution and financial services law.

As well as being a partner at Allens, she’s also a parent – and knows more than most how vile predatory financial advisers can be.

During the royal commission, we heard about a man with Down syndrome who was signed up for life insurance over the phone, even though he lived on a pension, had no dependants and could not afford the premiums.

In her review, Levy discloses that she has a daughter who, “like this gentleman”, lives with a disability and has bank accounts, but does not know the difference between $10 and $1,000, does not know how to use a credit card, or what superannuation is.

Levy writes that her daughter ought to be able to rely on her bank and super fund to assist her.

She says by stopping firms from providing advice that isn’t perfect, we’ve inadvertently stopped our financial institutions from providing advice that is “good”. We have made it hard for human beings to help each other.

Why ‘good’ might be a better benchmark than ‘best’

So Levy wants to allow super funds and banks to offer advice which is “good” but isn’t comprehensive, in the same way as sales assistants are able to offer advice on clothes and mechanics are able to offer advice on cars.

Good advice does not mean “okay advice” or “good enough” advice, she says.

It is unlikely to be good advice to recommend a poorly performing superannuation product. It will not be good advice to recommend that a person who is unable to pay their mortgage open a term deposit.

If the advice isn’t good, the full force of the existing law will come down on the person who provides it (the maximum penalty for an individual is $1.11 million). But it needn’t be comprehensive; not every piece of financial advice needs to be a lifetime plan.

What Levy is proposing, and what the government is now considering, is more subtle than what we are doing at the moment – which is simply banning self-interested parties from giving advice.

Levy wants to allow the self-interested to give advice, while ensuring it “also serves the interests of their customers”.

In the meantime, if you need financial advice, the National Debt Helpline is one of a number of places that can help. You can request a free, confidential meeting with a financial counsellor on 1800 007 007.

Read more:
Why would you dump a requirement for financial advisers to give advice that’s in their client’s best interests?

Peter Martin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Australians need good financial advice more than ever to pay for soaring interest rates. Here’s how to get it – https://theconversation.com/australians-need-good-financial-advice-more-than-ever-to-pay-for-soaring-interest-rates-heres-how-to-get-it-199739

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Holly Doel-Mackaway, Senior lecturer, Macquarie University

The media frenzy about the “crime wave” in Mparntwe (Alice Springs), and the way the Northern Territory and federal governments are responding, are cause for serious concern.

Everyone has the right to be safe, and crime in Alice Springs must be addressed. But alcohol bans won’t work, nor will punitive, tough-on-youth crime laws.

Previous research interviewing Aboriginal children and young people (aged between 10 and 17 years old) whom the Intervention was supposed to help and protect, about the 2007 Northern Territory Emergency Response, said the Intervention’s alcohol bans were ineffective and did little to improve their lives, but the bans did shame their communities.

So far, government responses to the situation in Alice Springs echo the same rapid, non-consultative approach to law-making that occurred during the Intervention.

Read more:
Here’s some context missing from the Mparntwe Alice Springs ‘crime wave’ reporting

Media moral panic led to the Northern Territory Intervention

The media’s reporting on Alice Springs over the past few weeks is reminiscent of the role the media played in garnering social and political support for the Howard government’s 2007 Northern Territory Emergency Response, commonly known as the Intervention.

Six days after the release of the Little Children Are Sacred report in 2007, the federal government rushed the passage of the Intervention legisation without warning and without consultation with Aboriginal people. Through suspending several laws including the Racial Discrimination Act, measures such as income management, and alcohol and pornography prohibition were implemented in certain areas.

Persistent governmental failure to uphold Aboriginal young people’s human rights is one of the core drivers of the social problems in Alice Springs. Defunding youth and family support services and ignoring young Aboriginal people’s voices are key examples of this.

Yet blame for the problems in Alice Springs is being directed toward young Aboriginal people while the systemic drivers of the alleged “crime wave” are overlooked.

Read more:
Alcohol bans and law and order responses to crime in Alice Springs haven’t worked in the past, and won’t work now

What young people said

Every young person in this study said alcohol bans and the huge signs placed at the entrance to select communities and town camps (that said “NO LIQUOR”) negatively impacted their lives.

A young woman (16 years old) said the signs “make communities look bad. They don’t respect the community”. Another young person (13 years old) said of the signs: “They’re racist”.

Several young people said the “NO LIQUOR” signs were erected even though their community was a self determined “dry community”. Other young people spoke about the fact their parents did not drink alcohol and they had never seen alcohol consumed in their home. Yet these young people and their families were still subjected to the humiliating blanket alcohol regulations under the Intervention.

It’s time to listen to communities

The Intervention was predicated on false and racist ideas about Aboriginal people, and in particular children, their families and communities. Yet even given its original objectives to “protect” Aboriginal children from harm, and reduce or eliminate alcohol use, it still failed to achieve these objectives.

What it did do was worsen intergenerational trauma for Aboriginal people and enabled the expansion of harmful policies against Aboriginal communities and their children, leading to sharp increases in the removal of Aboriginal children from their families into the child protection and juvenile detention systems in the NT.

The NT Chief Minister Natasha Fyles’ describes “alcohol-related harm” as the Northern Territory’s “biggest social challenge”. Yet Aboriginal children in this research said upholding Aboriginal people’s human rights, especially children’s rights, is the Northern Territory’s biggest social challenge, about which the United Nations agrees.

The recent knee-jerk alcohol ban goes against the government’s messaging about the Indigenous Voice to Parliament. If the government is serious an Indigenous Voice to Parliament will be more than a symbolic gesture, they must start listening to the voices of Aboriginal communities, including those not yet old enough to vote.

Law-making with Aboriginal young people

Governments must consult with Aboriginal people before making any laws that may impact them. More than half the Indigenous population in Australia is under 24 years of age, which makes consulting with young people even more urgent and significant.

The Aboriginal young people interviewed in this study understood how laws and policies will impact them and urged the government to support their active participation in these processes.

Young Aboriginal people in this study expressed a desire to be involved in making “white-fella law” and said their involvement could produce “better laws” that are more attuned to Aboriginal culture and their community’s needs. And yet, these same young people confirmed they had never been asked for their views about any proposed policy that will impact their lives (such as the Intervention and alcohol regulations) by any government official. Significantly, they said they felt valued, listened to and heard in their family, community and school.

Governments should respond to the call from a young person (16 years old) in this research, when she invited Australian governments to: “Just ask us. Come and see us”.

Continuing laws and policies that deepen racial discrimination against Aboriginal people will only do further harm to Aboriginal communities, impacting children and young people for generations to come.

The authors thank Professor Susan Page, Professor Thalia Anthony, Dr Carolyn Adams and Teresa Somes for their feedback on this article.

Holly Doel-Mackaway received funding from Macquarie University to undertake the research reported in this article.

Bhiamie Williamson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘Just ask us, come and see us’. Aboriginal young people in the Northern Territory must be listened to, not punished – https://theconversation.com/just-ask-us-come-and-see-us-aboriginal-young-people-in-the-northern-territory-must-be-listened-to-not-punished-199297

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter McNeil, Distinguished Professor of Design History, UTS, University of Technology Sydney

Before the creation of international systems of cultivation and the ability to move goods by air freight, flowers matched the pattern of the seasons. Roses on Saint Valentine’s Day were something unexpected, and very expensive.

In very old age, in 1989, the late Queen Mother wrote a letter about her youth:

I remember dancing with a nice young American at Lady Powis’ ball in Berkeley Square (aged 17) and the amazement and thrill when the next day a huge bunch of red roses arrived! In those days flowers were very rare!

Where does the tradition of flower gifts come from and do they pose risks for an ecologically aware world today?

Roses in culture and society

A Roman murdered for his religion on February 14, AD 269, St Valentine was promoted by Geoffrey Chaucer in the 14th century as a figure of courtly romance. The red rose therefore signals blood and sacrifice as well as devotion. The tradition of flowers having anything to do with love came to the West much later than the classical world.

Many of our beautiful roses descend from enormously tall, single-petalled specimens originally found in south central and northern China. Simple versions are also found in Europe and North Africa. They required crossings and hybridisation to produce the many lush varieties we enjoy today. We could say the flower that we call natural has been for centuries a product of conquest, commerce and commerce.

The rose – so spectacular for its thorny beauty – was all over early floral decorations. In Greek mythology it was woven into the fabric that Andromache made for Hector at the time of his death in Troy.

Commercial trade in flowers began as early as Hellenistic times. Egypt grew mass-produced blooms and shipped them long-distance for ritual, including wearing garland crowns.

Early Christians were suspicious of flowers

Greek and Roman men and women wore floral crowns later presented as offerings to the dead. This was too pagan for the early Christian Church. St Jerome and St Ambrose were suspicious about flowers on tombs. They raised concerns of luxury. The rose was doubly suspect as it was linked to the Crown of Thorns worn at the Crucifixion. The evil Roman Emperor Heliogabalus was said to have smothered his diners with roses and violets released from a false glass ceiling. Exotic flowers were about decadence, not virtue.

The foundations of botany emerged within both ancient China and Greece.
Knowledge of plants plummeted after the fall of the classical world in the West. Islam and the Near East were less disrupted by the decline of cities and had rich traditions of cultivation and botanical trade, notably in the 8th and 9th centuries AD. The rose appears stylised in the famous Persian carpets.

Read more:
The rich history of our love affair with luxury

China, called by plant collectors the “flowering land”, had one of the most diverse floral resources, a result of its geology and great horticultural expertise encouraged by the literati class. From China came the azalea, the camellia, chrysanthemum, magnolia and new types of rose.

In China flowers were uniformly positive. “Hua” can mean a blossom, a firework, a decorative border or a cotton print, or it can refer to women and courtesans. Han ladies wore large flowers in their hair, either fresh or artificial, and their make-up included flowers and petals. Courtesans, some of whom worked on flower-filled barges, were named after blooms.

Roses were rehabilitated in the Christian West in the 12th century. Within Gothic art, the stained-glass rose window of the cathedral itself resembled that flower.

Men liked flowers as much as women

Thirteenth-century French romances describe young men wearing clothes embroidered with flowers, and during this period the Paris guild of hatters produced hats for men decorated with peacock feathers and fresh flowers. Young men decorating their straw hats with flowers in summer remains a tradition at the famous English school Eton.

Flower painting emerges as an independent European form in the Ghent-Bruges School of manuscript decorators after 1475. Many Flemish painters specialised in paintings of the Virgin surrounded by a garland or wreath. The inclusion of bees, butterflies, insects and worms was a reminder of the transience of life, a memento mori.

Flowers underlined the contrast between internal and external beauty typical of classical sources. Sixth-century Roman philosopher Boethius wrote:

The beauty of things is fleet and swift, more fugitive than the passing of flowers in Spring”. Here is the explanation why we are so fascinated by flowers, they are about life, but at the same time, death and decay.

By the 17th century, flowering plants were established as essential luxuries for rulers and merchants. Collectors and patrons travelled between notable botanical centres including Prague, London, Leiden, Brussels, Antwerp, Middleburg, Milan and Paris to engage with this new science and form of collecting. This, the ethnologist Jack Goody claims, was an expert system that led to floriography – the European language of flowers. The red rose is love, the white rose devotion.

‘Too true, too perfect’: nineteenth-century fashion and flowers

In 19th-century Paris the flower market expanded to a twice-weekly format with corner booths, spiced with the erotic charms of the flower sellers who worked the streets.

Large blooms such as lilacs, Easter lilies and the large, perfumed Bourbon roses were the height of luxury. Flowers had shorter seasons and were scarcer than now, although the rich endeavoured to force plants in their private hothouses. The cult of flowers was significant. There were 100 florists in St Petersburg in 1912 – trains carried out-of-season blooms up on the St Petersburg-Paris-Nice express.

Mature women were not to use real flowers, the prerogative of youth, but rather artificial ones dispersed in their textiles and made in ornamental fabrics.

Today, flowers can be purchased at corner supermarkets every day. Most of what you see in stores is not grown locally. Much of it has been grown in South America or South Africa, shipped up to the Dutch wholesale markets, then flown back to the southern hemisphere. Flower cultivation uses large amounts of water and pesticides and often proceeds with low-paid labour in the developing world. Many of us could grow a few flowers ourselves, and get back to the simplicity of our grandparents’ generation, when flowers were scarce and also cherished.

If your flowers have not arrived for Valentines’ Day, remember this: Mizza Bricard, who worked for Christian Dior in the 1950s, once noted:

when a man asks who is your favourite florist, say my florist is Cartier.

Peter McNeil received funding on Luxury from The Leverhulme Trust. The opening of this essay has been workshopped with Prof Giorgio Riello.

– ref. A rose by any other name – how roses and cut flowers became a symbol of love and luxury – https://theconversation.com/a-rose-by-any-other-name-how-roses-and-cut-flowers-became-a-symbol-of-love-and-luxury-199776

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christiaan De Beukelaer, Senior Lecturer in Culture & Climate, The University of Melbourne

Sailing cargo ships are making a genuine comeback.

Japanese bulk carrier MOL is operating a wind-assisted ship. American food giant Cargill is working with Olympic sailor Ben Ainslie to deploy WindWings on its routes. Swedish shipping company Wallenius is aiming for Oceanbird to cut emissions by up to 90%. The French start-up Zephyr & Borée has built the Canopée, which will transport parts of European Space Agency’s Ariane 6 rocket this year.

I researched the decarbonisation of the shipping industry. While doing fieldwork aboard the Avontuur, a wind-propelled cargo ship, I even got stuck at sea for five months – because of the pandemic, not because the winds failed.

Read more:
Shipping must accelerate its decarbonisation efforts – and now it has the opportunity to do so

Sailing towards zero emissions

Like every other sector, the shipping industry needs to decarbonise in line with the Paris Agreement, but its emissions continue to grow. In 2018 the International Maritime Organization (IMO) set a first-ever target of halving shipping emissions between 2008 and 2050.

It was an important, but inadequate, first step. Climate Action Tracker calculates that halving emissions is not nearly enough to keep global warming below 1.5℃.

And yet the scientific consensus is that 1.5℃ is the real upper limit we can risk. Beyond that, dangerous tipping points could spell even more frequent disasters.

Luckily, the IMO will revise its strategy this July. I and many others expect far more ambition – because zero shipping emissions by 2050 is a necessity to keep the 1.5℃ limit credible. That gives us less than three decades to clean up an industry whose ships have an average life of 25 years. The 2050 timeline conceals that our carbon budget will likely run out far more quickly – requiring urgent action for all sectors, including shipping.

Read more:
Ships moved more than 11 billion tonnes of our stuff around the globe last year, and it’s killing the climate. This week is a chance to change

Research has confirmed the potential of wind propulsion.

The maths is simple. Shipping accounts for one billion tonnes of carbon dioxide a year, almost 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions. If wind propulsion saves fossil fuels today, the dwindling carbon budget stretches a little further. This, in turn, buys more time to develop alternative fuels, which most ships will need to some extent. Once these fuels are widely available, we’ll need less of them because the wind can provide anything from 10% to 90% of the power a ship needs.

Some commentators aren’t easily convinced, but I found most objections to wind-propelled shipping are based on four myths that can be easily debunked.

Myth 1. Wind ships are a thing of the past, for good reason

Wind ships may remind us of 19th-century tea clippers and, worse, of the slave trade and colonial exploitation. But returning to wind propulsion doesn’t mean going back in time.

New wind-powered ships use a blend of new and old technology to harness the wind where it is most common: at sea. This reduces the need for fossil fuels and for new alternative fuels that will require investment and space for new landside infrastructure, both to generate electricity and to transform this power into fuel.

Even if research into sailing cargo ships all but stopped in the late 19th century, engineering, materials science, yacht racing and aerospace design have yielded major innovations that are being used for cargo ships.

Read more:
Sail GP: how do supercharged racing yachts go so fast? An engineer explains

Myth 2. The wind is unreliable, so ships won’t arrive on time

The wind may seem fickle when standing on the beach. But at sea the trade winds that powered globalisation have remained stable. Indeed, the most common trade routes are still well-served by the prevailing winds.

Weather forecasting has also improved massively since the last days of sail. And weather routing software helps find the best course to take better than anyone could in the 19th century.

While the wind may not be as predictable as a steady flow of heavy fuel oil, technological advances have taken a lot of uncertainty out of sailing. The wind is also free and unaffected by fluctuating oil prices.

Myth 3. Sails cannot work on all types of ships

It’s true not all types of ships would work with sails, rotors or kites mounted on their decks. This can be due to the type of ship, as the largest container ships can’t easily accommodate sails, for example. It can also be because of where or how vessels operate – the windless waters of the doldrums and tight ferry schedules do pose challenges.

However, the argument that wind propulsion isn’t viable because some ships can’t use it is like claiming that commuting by bike is not a realistic option because not everyone can do so.

Meanwhile, the race between Veer Voyage and Windcoop to build the first wind-powered container ship is on. So, perhaps such ships can use sails, after all.

Myth 4. If it makes so much sense, we’d already be doing it

The 1970s oil crisis drove an upswing of interest in wind propulsion. Conferences in Delft (1980) and Manila (1985) heralded a new dawn for wind ships. But as oil prices dropped, interest waned.

Wind has had a hard time competing with cheap heavy fuel oil – the toxic sludge that refineries have no other use for. Wind propulsion has remained a niche part of the sector because shipping companies don’t have to pay the real environmental and societal costs of burning fossil fuels.

But a global carbon price is likely to be applied soon to international shipping (the European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme already includes shipping). This creates a financial incentive for non-polluting means of propulsion.

Read more:
Global carbon emissions at record levels with no signs of shrinking, new data shows. Humanity has a monumental task ahead

What are we waiting for?

The added complexity of using wind propulsion and weather routing software is a small trade-off to decarbonise shipping.

The International Windship Association reports that more than 20 commercial cargo ships already use “wind-assist” technologies that are retrofitted on existing vessels. The first purpose-built modern sailing cargo ship, Canopée, will start operations this year.

While shipping is a conservative industry, with few companies willing to be first movers, many more wind-propelled vessels will be launched in the next years.

For shipping companies, the biggest risk now isn’t making a daring investment – it’s not investing in a sustainable future at all.

Christiaan De Beukelaer’s new book, Trade Winds: A Voyage to a Sustainable Future for Shipping, is out now.

Christiaan De Beukelaer receives funding from the ClimateWorks Foundation and the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Wind-powered cargo ships are the future: debunking 4 myths that stand in the way of cutting emissions – https://theconversation.com/wind-powered-cargo-ships-are-the-future-debunking-4-myths-that-stand-in-the-way-of-cutting-emissions-199396

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Soheil Mohseni, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Sustainable Energy Systems, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

Tens of thousands of homes and businesses are left without power as Cyclone Gabrielle batters New Zealand’s North Island, causing widespread damage to the power network.

The government has declared a national state of emergency (for only the third time in New Zealand history) to coordinate efforts across the regions most affected.

The grid operator Transpower has declared a grid emergency following the loss of power in some regions, advising people “should be prepared to be without power for days to weeks, rather than hours”.

This once again emphasises the vulnerability of centralised power systems to increasingly severe weather events. It is crucial for communities to adopt more resilient energy solutions that can withstand such challenges in the face of a changing climate.

The cyclone is the second significant weather event to hit Auckland and the upper North Island in just a few weeks, following record rainfall and flooding last month.

Our research explores how renewables-based microgrids and peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading can help mitigate these impacts and increase energy independence and security.

Read more:
Microgrids: how to keep the power on when disaster hits

Vulnerability of centralised power systems

Centralised power systems rely on large power plants and transmission grids. They are susceptible to single points of failure, making them vulnerable to extreme weather events.

Cyclone Gabrielle and the recent flooding in Auckland, which both resulted in widespread power outages, are prime examples of this.

Microgrids (small collections of power-generating assets, often run by communities) and P2P energy systems hold promise for sustainable and resilient energy. Microgrids are self-sufficient and can operate independently or in conjunction with the larger grid. They can run on different types of renewable energy sources, including solar, wind and hydro power.

Microgrids are ideal for communities far from the main grid or in areas prone to extreme weather.

P2P energy systems allow individuals and communities to generate, share and trade energy among themselves. This creates a decentralised energy market and allows for more efficient energy use and distribution.

Case studies

Many microgrid and P2P energy projects across the world show the potential of these solutions. In rural India and sub-Saharan Africa, microgrids powered by solar energy provide electricity to remote communities not connected to the main power grid.

The Brooklyn Microgrid in New York City is also a shining example of a successful project. It allows residents to generate energy, share it and trade it with others in their community. This creates a more efficient and sustainable energy market.

Read more:
Small communities could be buying, selling and saving money on electric power right now – here’s how

Another successful microgrid and P2P energy project can be found in the town of Rock Port, Missouri. There, a community microgrid was established after a tornado destroyed the town’s electricity infrastructure. It is powered by wind and solar and provides stable and reliable energy for the community, even during times of extreme weather.

Hurricane Maria, which devastated Puerto Rico in 2017, serves as a stark reminder of the importance of energy independence and resilience. It caused widespread destruction to the island’s energy infrastructure and left residents without power for months. In the aftermath of the storm, many communities on the island have turned to microgrids as a solution to their energy needs.

Cost effectiveness and social acceptability

Our research shows that microgrids, both grid-connected and off-grid, can be cost effective when optimised. In Aotearoa New Zealand, they can be on par or even more cost effective than traditional power.

Our case studies from Aotea Great Barrier Island, Rakiura Stewart Island and the town of Ohakune demonstrate this.

The implementation of microgrids and P2P energy systems in these areas has the potential to improve energy resilience and save communities money in their electricity bills.

The social desirability and acceptability of these technologies are crucial factors and will determine their success and widespread adoption. Public perception can sometimes be a barrier to their implementation.

Read more:
Long power outages after disasters aren’t inevitable – but to avoid them, utilities need to think differently

For example, microgrids often require significant amounts of land for the installation of renewable energy sources, such as solar panels or wind turbines. However, some communities may resist the development of these projects due to concerns over land use.

The visual impact on the surrounding area or the potential disruption to wildlife habitats can also be reasons for resistance.

In these cases, it is important for project developers and local authorities to engage with communities. They need to address their concerns and promote a greater understanding of these technologies and their benefits to build support for these projects.

Demonstration projects can also showcase the capabilities and benefits of microgrids and P2P energy solutions. Involving the local community in the development and ownership can increase their social acceptability.

Alan Brent is affiliated with Victoria University of Wellington, a chartered member of Engineering New Zealand and an executive committee member of The Sustainability Society.

Soheil Mohseni does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Cyclone Gabrielle: how microgrids could help keep the power on during extreme weather events – https://theconversation.com/cyclone-gabrielle-how-microgrids-could-help-keep-the-power-on-during-extreme-weather-events-199665

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Layton, Visiting Fellow, Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith University

Over the past week, the US has realised and revealed that an active fleet of Chinese spy balloons has been operating across the northern hemisphere for several years.

This all started to become apparent when a Chinese balloon, some 60 metres high and carrying a sensor payload of more than a tonne, was sighted by people in offices and homes in Billings, Montana. The white balloon, highlighted against a bright blue sky, was described as like a second moon.

The saga continues to evolve. After the balloon was shot down off the South Carolina coast, three more objects were similarly engaged in northern Alaska, Canada’s Yukon Territory and over one of the Great Lakes. All three were flying inside territorial airspace.

The nature and origin of these objects is still unclear. US officials say the objects were not manoeuvring or communicating, helpfully noting “there is no indication of aliens or extraterrestrial activity”.

These four shoot-downs are the first in the history of the US-Canadian North American Aerospace Defense Command, originally set up during the early Cold War. In the background, another large Chinese spy balloon was understood to be overflying Costa Rica, Colombia and Venezuela.

A purposeful, ongoing program

The first balloon has already had several impacts. It quickly led to the cancellation of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s planned visit to Beijing of which much was hoped.

A minor domestic ruckus erupted as Republicans accused the Biden administration of being soft on China by not shooting the balloon down as early as possible. Congress voted 419-0 to condemn “the Chinese Communist Party’s use of a high-altitude surveillance balloon over United States territory as a brazen violation of United States sovereignty”.

Lastly, the US blacklisted a Chinese research institute and five aviation and defence companies, cutting them off from accessing American technology. The implication is the equipment recovered from the first balloon’s wreckage has revealed the blacklisted organisations were involved in building it.

As more comes to light each day, China’s spy balloon program appears purposeful, well-planned, well-funded and ongoing. This was not a slapdash activity by some freelancing Chinese group but a highly organised military activity, at least partly conducted from Hainan Island on the edge of the South China Sea.

The program is likely to continue with its main focus being electronic surveillance, in particular mapping the civil and military communication networks of other countries, presumably to aid monitoring and possible later intrusions. The Pentagon noted that over the past several years Chinese balloons have been spotted operating over Latin America, South America, South-East Asia, East Asia and Europe.

Global wind patterns mean these operations are likely to be restricted to the northern hemisphere unless the balloons are launched off Chinese naval ships.

Hunting balloons

Detecting and shooting down such balloons requires a well-organised national air defence system that most countries do not have. Nevertheless, the sudden shooting down of three more objects immediately after the first suggests the US may have gleaned critical intelligence as it tracked the first balloon while it flew across America.

Read more:
Chinese spy balloon over the US: An aerospace expert explains how the balloons work and what they can see

The first balloon was sending data via a wireless link back to China. This link may be commonly used across the program. Knowledge of the technical characteristics of this link may have allowed the US to locate and track other balloons.

The US is sharing its newly acquired intelligence about the balloons with its allies, partners and friends. This will help others counter Chinese spy balloons over their countries.

An escalating trend

There are some implications for international relations.

First, the Chinese Communist Party doesn’t appear to mind irritating other countries. Much of what the spy balloons are doing can just as easily be done by surveillance satellites, of which China has some 260 in orbit.

In contrast, the balloons are inherently provocative. The response from the Chinese Foreign Ministry and the party’s mouthpiece the Global Times has been to deny, obfuscate and confuse, complain about the US for shooting down the first balloon, and claim the US has sent many similar balloons into Chinese airspace.

Second, the great hopes that post-COVID China would shift from the wolf-warrior diplomacy of the past several years to become a more responsible member of the international community seem dashed. Instead, an escalating trend seems apparent, when considering other recent Chinese “grey zone” incidents . Looking forward, China seems set on “pushing the envelope” in a future where it is increasingly bellicose.

Bad signs for future crises

The balloon saga has also revealed that, in a crisis, China may be unable to adequately manage a fast-developing situation. The party apparatus may be good at implementing detailed long-range plans, but less adept at managing problems that arise quickly.

In this crisis, only the Americans seem actively involved; the statements from Beijing are at best pro forma, and certainly not meaningful interaction.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reportedly called China on a dedicated, mutually agreed crisis line, but Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe declined to speak to him. This is a bad omen.

Read more:
Beyond spy balloons: here are 7 kinds of intelligence spies want, and how they get it

In a future US–China crisis only one side might be trying to manage the situation. The Chinese side might again freeze, with senior leaders playing the silent, nobody-home card.

The balloon saga continues helping to drive US-China relations downwards. China’s top leaders appear apathetic, while America’s hawks seem vindicated. It’s a win-win, as Xi Jinping always talks about, but not for the wider world.

Peter Layton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘No indication of aliens’: spy balloon saga continues to surprise amid rising US–China tension – https://theconversation.com/no-indication-of-aliens-spy-balloon-saga-continues-to-surprise-amid-rising-us-china-tension-199769

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christina Maher, Researcher, University of Sydney

“Hello world!”

On December 2021, these were the first words tweeted by a paralysed man using only his thoughts and a brain-computer interface (BCI) implanted by the company Synchron.

For millions living with paralysis, epilepsy and neuromuscular conditions, BCIs offer restored movement and, more recently, thought-to-text capabilities.

So far, few invasive (implanted) versions of the technology have been commercialised. But a number of companies are determined to change this.

Synchron is joined by Elon Musk’s Neuralink, which has documented a monkey playing the computer game Pong using its BCI – as well as the newer Precision Neuroscience, which recently raised US$41 million towards building a reversible implant thinner than a human hair.

Eventually, BCIs will allow people to carry out a range of tasks using their thoughts. But is this terrific, or terrifying?

How do BCIs work?

BCIs can be non-invasive (wearable) or invasive (implanted). Electrical activity is the most commonly captured “neurodata”, with invasive BCIs providing better signal quality than non-invasive ones.

The functionality of most BCIs can be summarised as passive, active and reactive. All BCIs use signal processing to filter brain signals. After processing, active and reactive BCIs can return outputs in response to a user’s voluntary brain activity.

Signals from specific brain regions are considered a combination of many tiny signals from multiple regions. So BCIs use pattern recognition algorithms to decipher a signal’s potential origins and link it to an intentional event, such as a task or thought.

One of the first implanted BCIs treated drug-resistant seizures in some of the 50 million people with epilepsy. And ongoing clinical trials signal a new era for neurologically and physically impaired people.

Outside the clinical realm, however, neurodata exist in a largely unregulated space.

Read more:
Elon Musk claims his Neuralink brain chip could ‘cure’ tinnitus in 5 years. But don’t hold your breath

An unknown middleman

In human interaction, thoughts are interpreted by the person experiencing and communicating them, and separately by the person receiving the communication. In this sense, allowing algorithms to interpret our thoughts could be likened to another entity “speaking” for us.

This could raise issues in a future where thought-to-text is widespread. For example, a BCI may generate the output “I’m good”, when the user intended it to be “I’m great”. These are similar, but they aren’t the same. It’s easy enough for an able-bodied person to physically correct the mistake – but for people who can only communicate through BCIs, there’s a risk of being misinterpreted.

Moreover, implanted BCIs can provide rich access to all brain signals; there is no option to pick and choose which signals are shared.

Brain data are arguably our most private data because of what can be inferred regarding our identity and mental state. Yet private BCI companies may not need to inform users about what data are used to train algorithms, or how the data are linked to interpretations that lead to outputs.

In Australia, strict data storage rules require that all BCI-related patient data are stored on secure servers in a de-identified form, which helps protect patient privacy. But requirements outside of a research context are unclear.

What’s at risk if neurodata aren’t protected?

BCIs are unlikely to launch us into a dystopian world – in part due to current computational constraints. After all, there’s a leap between a BCI sending a short text and interpreting one’s entire stream of consciousness.

That said, making this leap largely comes down to how well we can train algorithms, which requires more data and computing power. The rise of quantum computing – whenever that may be – could provide these additional computational resources.

Cathy O’Neil’s 2016 book, Weapons of Math Destruction, highlights how algorithms that measure complex concepts such as human qualities could let predatory entities make important decisions for the most vulnerable people.

Here are some hypothetical worst-case scenarios.

1. Third-party companies might buy neurodata from BCI companies and use it to make decisions, such as whether someone is granted a loan or access to health care.

2. Courts might be allowed to order neuromonitoring of individuals with the potential to commit crimes, based on their previous history or socio-demographic environment.

3. BCIs specialised for “neuroenhancement” could be made a condition of employment, such as in the military. This would blur the boundaries between human reasoning and algorithmic influence.

4. As with all industries where data privacy is critical, there is a genuine risk of neurodata hacking, where cybercriminals access and exploit brain data.

Then there are subtler examples, including the potential for bias. In the future, bias may be introduced into BCI technologies in a number of ways, including through:

• the selection of homogeneous training data

• a lack of diversity among clinical trial participants (especially in control groups)

• a lack of diversity in the teams that design the algorithms and software.

If BCIs are to cater to diverse users, then diversity will need to be factored into every stage of development.

How can we protect neurodata?

The vision for “neurorights” is an evolving space. The ethical challenges lie in the balance between choosing what is best for individuals and what is best for society at large.

For instance, should individuals in the military be equipped with neuroenhancing devices so they can better serve their country and protect themselves on the front lines, or would that compromise their individual identity and privacy? And which legislation should capture neurorights: data protection law, health law, consumer law, or criminal law?

In a world first, Chile passed a neurorights law in 2021 to protect mental privacy, by explicitly classifying mental data and brain activity as a human right to be legally protected. Though a step in the right direction, it remains unclear how such a law would be enforced.

One US-based patient group is taking matters into its own hands. The BCI Pioneers is an advocate group ensuring the conversation around neuroethics is patient-led.

Other efforts include the Neurorights Foundation, and the proposal of a “technocratic oath” modelled on the Hippocratic oath taken by medical doctors. An International Organisation for Standardisation committee for BCI standards is also under way.

Read more:
Neuralink put a chip in Gertrude the pig’s brain. It might be useful one day

Christina Maher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Our neurodata can reveal our most private selves. As brain implants become common, how will it be protected? – https://theconversation.com/our-neurodata-can-reveal-our-most-private-selves-as-brain-implants-become-common-how-will-it-be-protected-197047

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Penny Taylor, Researcher, University of Tasmania

Opponents of an Indigenous Voice to parliament say the Voice is merely symbolic and another pointless layer of bureaucracy. They say that what is needed are “practical measures”.

However decades of government-led “practical measures” have achieved little measurable progress and in some cases, caused considerable harm to Indigenous communities. So the question is, will the Voice, in delivering Indigenous perspectives direct to parliament, make any practical difference to outcomes for Indigenous peoples?

Indigenous people have long been calling for more Indigenous-informed solutions. The current debate on alcohol bans in the Northern Territory is just one recent example.

Our research has found including the perspectives of Indigenous people can disrupt long-held assumptions behind previously accepted policy measures. This indicates mechanisms such as the Voice could help deliver better policy by building better understanding of Indigenous affairs.

We did 180 interviews with 44 Indigenous people in Darwin from diverse socio-economic, age, and gender groups. They spoke about aspects of Australian society they perceive to be harmful to race-relations, and therefore to the wellbeing of Indigenous peoples.

This kind of attention to Indigenous perspectives is central to the proposed structure of the Voice. The current design proposal ensures local and regional voices will have their say.

Read more:
The 1881 Maloga petition: a call for self-determination and a key moment on the path to the Voice

Whose voices are currently being heard in parliament?

Australia’s public and policy spaces are dominated by white Australians, who make up nearly all decision-makers and trusted authorities. By comparison, Indigenous people are underrepresented in every major sphere of influence. This results in top-down, paternalistic policies that have little connection with the reality of Indigenous peoples’ lives.

Studies show that when political discourse and policy development is dominated by one group’s experiences and worldview, it results in racial biases and blind spots. This limits policy discussions and proposed solutions. Failure to incorporate Indigenous perspectives has contributed to decades of misinformed, ineffective policy. The Northern Territory Intervention is a prime example.

One of the participants of our research reflected on this, saying:

they think they understand our values but they don’t understand anything at all. Like, you know, they make all these assumptions without even consulting or discussing or communicating with us anything, you know, of our values or our interests or what we know.

Indigenous voices are important to policy

The observations of the participants in our research illustrate how the lived experience of Indigenous peoples can better inform policies about what issues need to be addressed.

For example, our study found the broader population’s ignorance of Indigenous people was one of the standout problems brought up by participants. This includes ignorance of Indigenous cultures, Australian history, and the complexities of its consequences for Indigenous peoples. Participants said they feel there is a low awareness of the extent of this ignorance in the non-Indigenous population.

One participant stated:

I think there’s a lot of goodwill there, however, with that goodwill, understanding or knowledge doesn’t necessarily go with it…

It is their experience that this ignorance contributes to racist and culturally unsafe attitudes and behaviours – the harms of which are well documented. Participants said their response to this is to disengage and withdraw from spaces dominated by non-Indigenous people. This includes spaces of education, employment, and essential services. This is an issue because it is often assumed, based on misguided stereotypes, that Indigenous people are unmotivated to engage in education and employment. However unsafe environments are a contributing factor.

From this perspective, policies focused on increasing Indigenous participation – including through punitive measures – misunderstand the nature of the problem. Instead, education measures to “close the gap” in Indigenous health and wellbeing need to be broadened to include education of the non-Indigenous population in the areas identified above.

The participants’ perspectives raise many challenges to current policy, and state what is needed is not for Indigenous people to become more like white Australia but for there to be a mutual appreciation of the value of both worldviews and to find ways to work together.

Read more:
The Voice referendum: how did we get here and where are we going? Here’s what we know

The Voice could be good policy

The views of the research participants confirm the goals of the Uluru Statement from the Heart: if policy is to succeed, it must respond to the lived experience of Indigenous peoples.

Because we live it, we see it, whereas, if you don’t live it, you don’t see it.

Our research suggests Indigenous people need to be given space to speak frankly about their lives and for their views to be heard by policy makers. This creates opportunity for better-informed policies and systemic change.

Indigenous people have long demanded a voice to inform policies that affect them. Since invasion, their perspectives have largely been excluded, with disastrous consequences.

The referendum is the result of enormous grassroots efforts by Indigenous people to achieve this basic right. By establishing a national platform that delivers Indigenous voices direct to parliament, the Voice could finally achieve this.

Dr Penny Taylor has received funding from the Australian Research Council and an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship.

Daphne Habibis has received funding from the Australian Research Coucil. She is a volunteer with From the Heart.

Kellie Pollard has received funding from ARC, and is a member of the ARC College of Experts.

– ref. Our research has shown Indigenous peoples’ needs cannot be understood and met, without Indigenous voices – https://theconversation.com/our-research-has-shown-indigenous-peoples-needs-cannot-be-understood-and-met-without-indigenous-voices-199286

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Frank Bongiorno, Professor of History, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National University

The Australian summer has not been kind to the proposal for a First Nations Voice to Parliament. A recent Newspoll shows a majority in favour – at 56% – but with half of those only partly in favour and 37% opposed. There is plenty of material for opponents to work with.

That they have been assiduously doing. Some calls for “more detail” are probably a genuine desire for just that – more detail. Others are very likely a cover for outright opposition, or for the holding operation currently being conducted by Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.

Read more:
Albanese’s Newspoll ratings drop but Labor maintains big lead

He knows there is much at stake for him and the opposition in how it responds to this issue. A Liberal Party already seen as out of tune with the increasingly progressive social opinions found among voters in metropolitan seats might yet suffer more damage.

First Nations opinion is said to be overwhelmingly in favour. However, the minority of Aboriginal voices already heard against the proposal – some from the left, others from the right – have ensured the proposal will likely be unable to carry the same amount of moral force as the 1967 referendum.

The “yes” case in that year, which attracted almost 91% of the vote, not only had bipartisan support; it was overwhelmingly understood as the right way to vote if you didn’t want Australia to become another South Africa. You had to vote “yes” if you wanted a decent future for the Aboriginal children whose images featured prominently in the publicity. There was a moral clarity, as well as a sense of mission among supporters, on a question that offered white voters a kind of national redemption.

Supporters of the Voice would like a similar kind of clarity, but it is probably now already out of reach. That means that the “yes” case will need to counter the sowing of fear and doubt, the suspicion of a hidden agenda, that has been the enemy of referendum proposals since the earliest years of the Federation.

The numbers are fairly well known in a society that is usually a bit hazy about the details of its political history. Eight out of 44 – that’s how many referendum proposals have succeeded since 1901. Bipartisanship has come to be seen as essential in getting a proposal accepted, but some bipartisan proposals have also failed.

It is often said the constitutional requirement of a double majority – more than 50% of voters as well as at least four out of six states – makes changing the constitution exceptionally difficult. There is evidence to support this contention.

On five occasions, a proposal achieved a majority of voters but went down because it lacked the requisite majority of states. In 1977, simultaneous elections of the House and Senate achieved over 62% support but fell over because voters in only three states backed it. All the same, proposals have more commonly failed because they gained the support of less than half the national electorate – indeed, sometimes less than a third.

Read more:
Changing the Australian Constitution is not easy. But we need to stop thinking it’s impossible

Both sides of politics have benefited from negativity. In 1951, a time of great tension in the Cold War, Labor leader Herbert Vere Evatt managed between July 9 and September 22 to help turn an 80% majority in favour of banning the Communist Party into a narrow “no” majority. There was also a 3-3 split between the states. He presented the proposal as the thin edge of the wedge, arguing the Menzies government would use the power arbitrarily against people and institutions who were not communists.

In 1988, Hawke government proposals for mostly modest changes achieved embarrassingly poor support. They included a provision for freedom of religion and extension to the states of the right to trial by jury and compensation for compulsory acquisition of property. The Coalition’s “no” campaign, led by Peter Reith, mobilised opposition with great success.

Only a provision for fair and democratic elections received more than about a third of the vote – and that was just 37.6%. The proposal for simultaneous four-year terms for the two houses of parliament – perhaps the most substantial of the proposals in terms of systemic change – managed less than a third of the vote. Not a single state voted in favour of any proposal. (The Australian Capital Territory voted narrowly in favour of fair elections.)

“Anyone who got up in the next 20 years at a Labor Party conference and suggested another referendum would have a very short future,” concluded Bob Hogg, the ALP national secretary. That said, the party under Hawke’s successor, Paul Keating, did champion a republic in the 1990s. A 1999 referendum held after it lost office produced another disappointing result for constitutional reformers.

A “no” vote would be a great blow to the Albanese government. And in light of this history, it is in some respects odd that it has chosen to hitch its wagon so tightly to the cause of constitutional change. It is true they do not usually destroy governments – Menzies survived the 1951 defeat to rule for another decade and a half, and after the 1988 debacle, Labor would win elections in 1990 and 1993. But they do have the potential to undermine leaders and governments. Some commentary, for instance, suggested after the 1951 result that Menzies might leave politics.

The Voice referendum is not lost, but there is sufficient confusion and contention around the proposal to worry supporters. To suggest a good deal of that confusion has been cynically manufactured for political advantage does not much alter the level of danger.

Anthony Albanese’s recent speech at the National Press Club indicates he is seeking to strike a delicate balance. He wants to facilitate debate and consultation – especially with First Nations peoples – without leaving a vacuum to be filled by opponents with misinformation.

That task is likely to test fully the political skills the prime minister has developed over decades in the business.

Frank Bongiorno does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The history of referendums in Australia is riddled with failure. Albanese has much at risk – and much to gain – https://theconversation.com/the-history-of-referendums-in-australia-is-riddled-with-failure-albanese-has-much-at-risk-and-much-to-gain-198799

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Theresa Larkin, Professor of Medical Sciences, University of Wollongong

Love dominates our popular culture and is the subject of countless songs, movies, and works of literature and art. But what’s happening in our body when we feel love?

Love is difficult to define, but can be described as an intense feeling of deep affection. At the most basic level, science sees love as a cocktail of chemicals released by the brain.

From an evolutionary perspective, romantic love evolved from the primitive animal drive to find and keep preferred mates. Love keeps people bonded and committed to one another, to raise children through infancy. This ensures our species will continue to reproduce, survive and thrive.

However, romantic love is not just about reproduction. Some argue we should consider love a motivation, like hunger, thirst, sleep or sex.

There are many benefits of loving others and being loved. These include better mental health, wellbeing and immune function, and reduced chronic stress and disease.

Read more:
What is love?

What happens when someone initially falls in love?

Falling in love typically begins when someone starts to see another person as special and unique.

The initial phase of falling in love is an extreme neurobiological state, characterised by heightened responses and high passion. Lust and attraction are driven by the sex hormones, estrogen and testosterone, as motivations for sex.

Specific areas of the brain are activated when you fall in love, in particular the limbic system and the reward centres. The limbic system has key roles in emotion and memory. This causes a positive mood and explains why the memories associated with new love are so strong.

There is also an increase in dopamine and noradrenaline. Dopamine stimulates the reward pathways and increases motivation and obsessive thoughts and behaviours to pursue the love interest. Noradrenaline causes the feelings of euphoria, and the physiological responses of a faster heart rate, butterflies in the stomach and increased energy.

At the same time, other brain areas are deactivated. Reduced activity in the frontal cortex reduces negative emotions and judgements. This explains why initially people may be blind to faults in the person they are in love with.

But while you might be feeling less judgement, there is also increased cortisol, stress and feelings of insecurity in the early phase of falling in love.

Read more:
Love is good for us, so why do lawmakers try to break us up?

How does romantic love change over time?

The initial phase of falling in love and intense infatuation lasts for several months.

During the next phase, there is increased intimacy, commitment and attachment. This is driven by the hormones oxytocin and vasopressin. Oxytocin helps us feel safe and secure after the initial high cortisol and stress of the uncertainty and risk of falling in love. Vasopressin promotes behaviours of vigilance and being territorial and self-protective.

Between oxytocin and vasopressin there is a balance of connecting with others while also protecting the person you are in love with and yourself.

Oxytocin is often called the “hormone of love” because it facilitates the formation of social bonds and connections. However, new research in animal models suggests oxytocin is not essential for life-long pair-bonding as previously thought.

Sexual activity is distinct from love, but it does reinforce attachment. When we touch, kiss or have sex, oxytocin and vasopressin are released, which promotes love and commitment between a couple.

Read more:
What’s the point of sex? It’s good for your physical, social and mental health

Years into a romantic relationship, there is often a period of transition from passionate love to companion love. High intimacy and commitment help to sustain this love. Some relationships end at this time because of the reduced passion, while other couples remain in the passionate love phase for decades.

What about non-romantic love?

Beyond its role in romantic love, oxytocin is important in all forms of love, including with family, friends and even pets. Positive social relationships and oxytocin have many benefits on human health, wellbeing and longevity.

In our research, we have shown oxytocin is associated with better quality of life and healthier social connections, among people with and without depression.

So, for the love of your favourite person, people or pet(s), whoever they are, however long you love them for, and however many times you fall in love, relish loving and being loved.

Love might just be nature’s best chemical cocktail. But all the intricacies of the complex behaviour and emotion of love continue to elude science.

Read more:
Love: is it just a fleeting high fuelled by brain chemicals?

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What happens in our brain and body when we’re in love? – https://theconversation.com/what-happens-in-our-brain-and-body-when-were-in-love-198885

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Raven Cretney, Postdoctoral Fellow, University of Waikato

As the cleanup from the Auckland floods continues, and Cyclone Gabrielle hits already saturated parts of the North Island, many people and communities are wondering about the future of their cherished places and homes.

The increasing severity of climate-related disasters, and the vulnerability of ageing stormwater infrastructure, are now tangible and visible realities.

With this, the term “managed retreat” has gone from being a specialist one to something discussed much more widely. And with the growing prospect of repeat events, the urgent need for a national managed retreat framework is very much in focus.

The government’s first National Adaptation Plan, released in August 2022, was lauded as a welcome development in responding to climate change. Central to the plan is the role of managed retreat – the strategic relocation of people, communities, taonga and assets.

As some commentators have pointed out, however, there is an absence of detail in the plan on the enduring questions of who should move, how they will move, and who pays.

Guided by the past

The Auckland floods came as the government is preparing the first draft of its Climate Adaptation Act, part of the repeal of the Resource Management Act. This is the next step in a plan to respond to the growing risks from sea level rise and climate-related disasters.

The legislation (in parallel with the National Built Environment and Strategic Planning bills) aims to address the complex issues associated with managed retreats and how to implement them.

Read more:
New Zealand has launched a plan to prepare for inevitable climate change impacts: 5 areas where the hard work starts now

Our recent research suggests a close examination of the past will help guide these difficult decisions. By analysing academic research, government reports and policies, we traced the historical and political context in which managed – and unmanaged – retreats evolved in Aotearoa.

We pieced together why and how retreats gradually evolved, from being reactive and unmanaged towards being a strategic part of our national risk management framework. These insights shed light on why implementation will still be difficult, and they provide lessons for other countries grappling with similar policy options.

Communities in limbo

This journey is not linear. Decision makers and communities have tested different approaches to retreat and have confronted existing science, law and behavioural norms that supported the status quo. These experiences have all been important in making the case for a more anticipatory mindset when making policy.

Our research emphasises that managed retreat only became a mainstream option due to consistent scientific advocacy and shifts in the understanding and application of risk management over decades. It was the result of a long struggle by many committed groups.

Read more:
Flood warning: NZ’s critical infrastructure is too important to fail – greater resilience is urgently needed

For communities across Aotearoa, however, support and direction to enable effective managed retreat is still a waiting game. The previous pattern of ad hoc policy experiments, often based on trial and error, only increases the political risks associated with an already delicate undertaking.

This history highlights the toll that an absence of clear policy can take on individuals and communities. The examples we’ve analysed emphasise how retreats can be disruptive, produce inequitable outcomes and sever community ties.

The challenges of managing retreat without supportive policies heighten the political risk for decision makers, which means effective action may be deferred until a national framework is in place. This is particularly difficult for communities already in limbo, at risk, and without a plan for the future.

Transformative opportunities

Importantly, we emphasise that managed retreats encompass more than just physical change. Decisions to live with risk, resist or retreat are shaped by many things. These include different social and cultural relationships to a place, public expectations of state protection or compensation, and data availability.

There are diverse relationships between people, places, land and property. It’s vital that managed retreat processes empower and support communities to make decisions that reflect their specific social, cultural and environmental contexts –
particularly including Te Tiriti o Waitangi and rights to tino-rangatiratanga (self-determination) for Māori land and taonga.

Read more:
Slippery slopes: why the Auckland storm caused so many landslides – and what can be done about it

Policy development will need to encompass these multifaceted relationships, with flexible approaches tailored to local needs. It is also vital to start a national conversation about the role of permanent property rights and land ownership – and how managed retreat challenges the notion of perpetual property rights in certain locations.

Our historical review highlights the importance of strategic planning and support for communities to mitigate the disruptive impact of managed retreats. The right funding mechanisms that address the potential for inequitable outcomes are also necessary.

Ultimately, planning for managed retreats demands that we reform relationships between communities, place and the environment. This is about more than physical relocation. Managed retreats provide transformative opportunities to unmake and remake space, place and property, but current perceptions of permanence cast a long shadow.

We eagerly await the draft Climate Adaptation Act, and the opportunity for Aotearoa to make better planning decisions for the future. But there is still much work to be done to ensure it can be applied equitably.

Raven Cretney receives funding from the Resilience to Nature’s Challenges National Science Challenge: Kia manawaroa – Ngā Ākina o Te Ao Tūro and the Biological Heritage National Science Challenge: Ngā Koiora Tuku Iho.

Christina Hanna receives funding from the Aotearoa New Zealand Government National Science Challenge: Resilience to Nature’s Challenges – Kia manawaroa – Ngā Ākina o Te Ao Tūroa. Christina also receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s Endeavour Fund to research issues connected to flood risk mapping and better decision making.

Iain White receives funding from the Aotearoa New Zealand Government National Science Challenge: Resilience to Nature’s Challenges – Kia manawaroa – Ngā Ākina o Te Ao Tūroa. Iain White also receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s Endeavour Fund to research issues connected to flood risk mapping and better decision making.

– ref. Who moves and who pays? Managed retreat is hard, but lessons from the past can guide us – https://theconversation.com/who-moves-and-who-pays-managed-retreat-is-hard-but-lessons-from-the-past-can-guide-us-196038

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Curran, Associate Professor of Ecology, Lincoln University, New Zealand

Australian oil and gas giant Santos wants to build an 833-kilometre gas pipeline stretching from southern Queensland to Newcastle in New South Wales. Details released by the company show the project would traverse highly productive farmland, as well as valuable native vegetation.

The pipeline would run underground. Even still, the proposed path is a real risk to threatened species and ecological communities, due to the need to clear a 30m-wide corridor to install the pipeline.

In January, the NSW government granted Santos authority to survey land along the route, with or without permission from landholders. This brings this massive infrastructure project closer to construction.

Many landscapes along the pipeline’s path are already denuded of native vegetation. The threatened ecosystems that remain, including native grasslands, must be protected.

Expanding the gas network across the Liverpool Plains

The proposed pipeline route passes close to Santos’ controversial Narrabri Gas Project. The company claims the pipeline will help alleviate gas shortages along Australia’s east coast.

The preferred route for the pipeline runs through the fertile Liverpool Plains, which cover more than 1.2 million hectares of inland northern NSW, near the towns of Gunnedah, Quirindi and Boggabri.

The plains’ deep, alluvial clay soils are renowned for high agricultural productivity. Before European settlement, the plains supported extensive tracts of naturally treeless grasslands, dominated by plains grass, native oatgrass and silky browntop.

Most of the grasslands have been cleared for agriculture. It’s estimated that less than 5% remain.

The grasslands were listed as endangered in 2001 in NSW, and as critically endangered nationally in 2009.

Travelling stock routes and reserves

The proposed pathway for the pipeline includes travelling stock routes and reserves set aside in the late 1800s. Most surviving patches of critically endangered Liverpool Plains grasslands are found along these stock routes.

Yet, Santos has nominated the Pullaming stock route – which runs 25km southeast from near Gunnedah – as a preferred location for the Hunter Gas Pipeline.

This would require clearing a 30-metre wide strip along one side of the road, removing 75ha of these critically endangered grasslands (almost 1% of the estimated 8,000ha remaining).

The extent of the potential damage is detailed in the map and caption below. The green line running southeast from Gunnedah is the narrow strip of native grassland along the Pullaming stock route.

It’s not just the direct clearing that will impact these grasslands. Adjacent stands will suffer from weed invasion.

Stock routes also provide other cultural and ecological benefits, such as:

• providing emergency stock feed
• aiding the conservation of birds, plant communities and koalas
• protecting ecosystems not commonly found in national parks, such as valley flats.

More than ‘minimal impacts’

The NSW state government approved the pipeline in 2009, and this approval was modified in October 2019. It requires the route to, where possible, avoid endangered ecological communities or have minimal impacts. Where damage does occur, this must be offset by biodiversity gains elsewhere.

The proposed clearing of critically endangered grasslands along the Pullaming stock route is hardly a minimal impact.

Biodiversity offsets involve improving biodiversity in one place to compensate for destruction elsewhere. However, offsets are a very controversial tool and are likely to lead to further biodiversity loss if used improperly.

It is much better to avoid the destruction of native vegetation in the first place, especially if that vegetation is critically endangered and essentially irreplaceable. It is not yet known whether Santos plans to use biodiversity offsets for this project.

Read more:
A contentious NSW gas project is weeks away from approval. Here are 3 reasons it should be rejected

A project that’s hard to justify

The likely destruction of endangered grasslands occurs along just 25km of the 833km pipeline. Other travelling stock routes and native vegetation will be affected elsewhere along the route, further impacting biodiversity.

Based on the preferred pipeline route through the Liverpool Plains, this massive infrastructure project will either extensively damage highly productive farmland, or harm endangered ecological communities, or both of these.

Given this, it’s difficult to see why the project should be allowed to proceed.

The Conversation approached Santos for comment but did not receive a statement before the publication deadline. However, the company’s web page about the Hunter Gas Pipeline route says Santos intends to consider the environment as well as landholder preferences and “potential constructability issues” before finalising the exact location of the pipeline and the permanent easement.

The company says it is “committed to finding the right balance so that impacts to landholders are minimised, and sensitive areas are protected”.
Santos says the path of the pipeline can still be changed, under existing approvals, if certain conditions are met.

Tim Curran receives funding from the New Zealand Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE), Fire and Emergency New Zealand, the Miss E L Hellaby Indigenous Grasslands Research Trust, Marlborough District Council, and the Lincoln University Argyle Fund. Tim is the Immediate Past President of the New Zealand Ecological Society.

– ref. The real price of gas: massive Santos pipeline would destroy rare native grasslands – https://theconversation.com/the-real-price-of-gas-massive-santos-pipeline-would-destroy-rare-native-grasslands-198795

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert Breunig, Professor of Economics and Director, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

The notion of the “fair go” is meant to be central to Australia’s national ethos.

It’s not easy to define, but most of us would agree it means the chance to reach your full potential, regardless of your background. This doesn’t necessarily mean equality, but it does imply social mobility, where you can do better than your parents based on merit.

Education is a major driver of social mobility, with research showing educational attainment explains up to 30% of the transmission of economic advantage between parents and children.

But a Productivity Commission report published last month shows the education system is not doing well in correcting for the disadvantage students face in the classroom.

For example, Year 3 students whose parents did not finish secondary school are an average of 1.3 years behind in numeracy, compared with those whose parents have a bachelors’ degree or higher. By the time these students reach Year 9 this gap widens to almost four years.

The Productivity Commission report was commissioned under the Morrison government to review the 2018 National School Reform Agreement between the federal and state governments to improve student outcomes. The deal came with A$319 billion in extra funding. But after five years, the report concludes, this has so far failed to make any difference in results.

Given the magnitude of the funding, this is troubling on its own. The broader implications for social mobility in Australia are even more concerning.

The commission’s report highlights the need for better data on educational attainment and social mobility. This will enable better analysis of the links between the two – and ultimately more effective education policy.

If policymakers don’t know what works, especially for students from disadvantaged backgrounds, they will spend money on the wrong things.

Read more:
A degree promises a better life but social mobility has a downside too

The importance of longitudinal data

As children from less educated families perform significantly worse than the children of the more educated, it is far less likely their relative economic situation in adulthood will exceed that of their parents.

Unravelling the links between education and social mobility requires longitudinal data – tracking the same individuals over decades.

The best example of longitudinal data in Australia is the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey, conducted by the Melbourne Institute at the University of Melbourne.

Since 2001, HILDA has tracked a nationally representative sample of about 18,000 Australians, asking them about things such as income, employment, health and wellbeing. By surveying the same people, researchers can use this data to understand influences on people’s lives over time.

Read more:
HILDA Survey reveals striking gender and age divide in financial literacy. Test yourself with this quiz

The Australian Taxation Office’s ALife dataset, an anonymised sample of 10% of all Australian taxpayers also provides significant insight into intergenerational income mobility.

By following individuals over decades, researchers can observe and compare the labour market outcomes of parents with those of their children as they grow into adults.

For example, University of Technology Sydney researchers Tomas Kennedy and Peter Siminski have used HILDA and other survey data to conclude about two-thirds of Australians aged 30-34 have higher incomes than their parents at the same age.

Australian National University researchers Nathan Deutscher and Bhashkar Mazumder have used ALife to conclude about 12% of Australians born into the bottom 20% of family income join the top 20% between the ages of 29 and 35. If a family’s wealth at birth had no bearing on a child’s wealth as an adult, that number would be 20%.

Deutscher has also used ALife to follow individuals over 25 years and calculate the effect of where they lived as a child on their income in adulthood. Where a child grows up has a causal impact on their adult outcomes. This typically matters most during the teenage years.

The question is how much of this relates to their school.

To answer this and other questions, researchers need more comprehensive longitudinal data that enables linking things such as child-care attendance, test scores, and school choice across time and with other data sources.

Read more:
Our top 1% of income earners is an increasingly entrenched elite

Unique student identifier

One important policy initiative of the National School Reform Agreement is the introduction of a “unique student identifier” (USI) to track individual student performance over time. This will enable data on educational outcomes to be more easily linked with other data held by state and federal governments, and provide researchers with a clearer picture of how educational outcomes shapes social, economic and health outcomes later life.

However, the Productivity Commission report notes the rollout of this initiative is well behind schedule.

The USI offers more than mere standardisation. Once in place, researchers will also be better able to evaluate the impact of education policy interventions by conducting randomised control trials, similar to those used by in medicine to assess the efficacy of new drugs and treatments. Such trials are crucial for assessing whether a particular education policy reform, for instance a new teaching method, has a causal impact on learning outcomes.

To date, the dearth of randomised control trials in education policy has held back the Australian education evidence base.

As noted in the University of Newcastle’s Teachers and Teaching Research Centre’s submission to the Productivity Commission, the use of randomised control trials in evaluating education policy is hampered by the expense of collecting data from students via surveys. Better data linkage can help solve this problem.

Building a more effective education system to support, maintain and improve social mobility requires the right tools. Without better integrated data and a more reliable education evidence base, taxpayers are far less likely to see a return on the billions being spent.

This article was co-authored by Matthew Taylor, director of the Centre for Independent Studies’ Intergenerational Program.

Robert Breunig does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Success in life is tied to parental education. That’s why we need to track intergenerational school performance – https://theconversation.com/success-in-life-is-tied-to-parental-education-thats-why-we-need-to-track-intergenerational-school-performance-199771

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gery Karantzas, Associate professor in Social Psychology / Relationship Science, Deakin University

Love languages – the concept coined by Baptist pastor Gary Chapman some 30 years ago – has taken the relationships world by storm. It’s often the “go-to” topic on first dates, and for those in relationships love languages are said to provide deep, meaningful and reliable insights into how relationships function. Putting love languages into action is believed to increase relationship happiness.

The concept clearly has appeal. At last count, 20 million copies have been sold worldwide of Chapman’s 1992 book The Five Love Languages: The Secret to Love that Lasts. The book has been translated into 49 languages.

There is only one catch. There is little evidence to support the idea that love languages are “a thing”, or that love languages do much of anything to help improve relationships.

What are the love languages?

According to Chapman, there are five love languages. Each of these love languages is a way to communicate your love to your romantic partner.

In his role as a Baptist pastor, Chapman had been counselling couples for years. It was through his observations of couples that the idea of love languages was born.

He believed love languages were an intuitive and simple way to teach couples about how to tune into each other’s ways of expressing love. And so, he began running seminars for husbands and wives, and the popularity of his seminars grew.

The five love languages are:

(1) acts of service (doing something that helps a partner, such as running an errand)

(2) physical touch (demonstrating physical affection, such as giving your partner a hug or kiss)

(3) quality time (spending time together and giving each other undivided attention)

(4) gifts (giving your partner a present that communicates thoughtfulness, effort, and/or expense)

(5) words of affirmation (such as expressing your admiration, or complimenting your partner).

Chapman suggests that people typically use all love languages, but that most people tend to rely on one love language most of the time. This is referred to as a person’s primary love language.

According to Chapman, people are more satisfied in their relationships when both partners match when it comes to their primary love language. However, people experience less satisfaction in their relationships when both partners do not share the same primary love language.

Another important aspect of the love languages concept is that relationships are likely to deliver the greatest satisfaction when a person can understand their partner’s love language, and act in ways that “speaks to” their partner’s language. In essence, this idea is about tuning in to what a partner wants.

This is an idea that has existed across many models and theories about how relationships function well. That is, responding to a partner in a way that meets their needs and wants makes a person feel understood, validated, and cared for.

What does the evidence tell us?

Despite the popularity of the theory of love languages, only a handful of studies have been conducted and reported over the past 30 years. Research is largely inconclusive, although the balance sways more towards refuting rather than endorsing the love languages concept.

Let’s start with how love languages are assessed. In popular culture, the Love Language QuizTM is an online questionnaire that people can complete to find out about their love languages. Despite millions of individuals having taken the quiz (according to 5lovelanguages.com), there are no published findings as to the reliability and validity of the measure.

Researchers have developed their own version of the love languages survey, but the findings did not meet the statistical thresholds to suggest the survey adequately captured the five love languages. Also, their findings did not support the idea that there are five love languages.

Furthermore, a qualitative study in which researchers coded the written responses of undergraduate students to questions about how they express love, suggested there may be six love languages. However, the researchers reported difficulty agreeing on how some of the students’ responses neatly fitted into Chapman’s love languages, particularly in the categories of “words of affirmation” and “quality time”.

Next, let’s turn to research testing a core premise of the love language theory: that couples with matching love languages experience greater satisfaction than those who do not. Evidence for this premise is very mixed.

Read more:
From Chaucer to chocolates: how Valentine’s Day gifts have changed over the centuries

Three studies, including one that used Chapman’s Love Language Quiz, have found that couples with matching love languages were no more satisfied than couples who were mismatched.

However, a more recent study found that partners with matching love languages experienced greater relationship and sexual satisfaction than partners with mismatched love languages. This research also found that men who reported greater empathy and perspective-taking had a love language that better matched the language of their partner.

Finally, what does the research say about whether having a better understanding of your partner’s love language is linked to higher relationship satisfaction? Only two studies have investigated this question. Both found that knowing your partner’s primary love language did predict relationship satisfaction in the present or into the future.

So, as you can see, not only is there very little research investigating love languages, but the research to date doesn’t strengthen belief in the powerful properties of love languages.

Gery Karantzas receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is a couples therapist and founder of www.relationshipscienceonline.com.

– ref. Love languages are hugely popular – but there’s very little evidence they exist at all – https://theconversation.com/love-languages-are-hugely-popular-but-theres-very-little-evidence-they-exist-at-all-198065

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

It wasn’t the first time Peter Dutton had said he was sorry for boycotting Kevin Rudd’s 2008’s historic Apology to the Stolen Generations, but Monday’s reiteration was an important moment for the opposition leader.

Dutton is struggling to chart a course and manage his divided party on the issue of the Indigenous Voice to parliament.

If he ends up supporting the Voice, Monday’s speech will be seen as a step on the way. If he rejects it (as many think he will), his speech will probably be viewed as an empty gesture.

Back in the day, Dutton defended his boycott by saying he didn’t think the Apology would deliver any practical results. He said in 2010: “I regarded it as something which was not going to deliver tangible outcomes to kids who are being raped and tortured in communities in the 21st century”.

At his first news conference after becoming leader in 2022, he said he’d been wrong to boycott. Scrapping off a barnacle, the cynics might say.

Addressing the House of Representatives on the 15th anniversary of the apology, Dutton said on Monday: “I want to speak directly to those in the gallery today and further afield who are part of the Stolen Generation and those who are descendants or are connected to the issue.

“I want to say in an unscripted way, I apologise for my actions […] – that I didn’t attend the chamber for the Apology 15 years ago. I’ve apologised for that in the past and I repeat that apology again today.”

He had “failed to grasp at the time the symbolic significance to the Stolen Generation of the Apology. It was right for Prime Minister Rudd to make the Apology in 2008.”

Read more:
Albanese government announces $424 million to narrow a gap that is not closing fast enough

Now, as he grapples with the issue of the Voice, Dutton has to make a judgement about the symbolic significance of this latest test he faces.

Minister for Indigenous Australians Linda Burney said at the weekend: “I know that some people who boycotted that historic day in 2008 have since expressed their regret. They now admit that it was a mistake. And I say to those people – don’t make the same mistake again.”

While Burney didn’t name Dutton she was applying a political blowtorch to him. But there’s a salutary warning for him here.

Dutton has to ask himself whether, given the journey towards the Voice is well underway, an attempt to erect a roadblock would send the worst of signals.

A signal to Indigenous Australians. A signal to the world. This goes deeper than narrow partisan considerations.

If the referendum passes, the resultant Voice may or may not prove an effective instrument in Indigenous advancement.

But even if he is sceptical, given the symbolism of the Voice, does Dutton really want to risk being shouldered with some of the responsibility if the referendum fails?

Wherever he lands – pro, anti, neutral – Dutton will have a fractured band of party followers.

Prominent Liberal moderates such as Bridget Archer and Andrew Bragg are already out and active in support of the Voice. Rightwingers are strongly against. Dutton won’t be able to herd his cats.

Read more:
Enshrining the Voice gives best chance for Closing the Gap, Albanese says

Meanwhile the Voice debate is being increasingly accompanied by greater attention on what is happening on the ground, which is to be welcomed.

This is partly because the referendum has meant more discussions about Indigenous affairs generally, and particularly due to the publicity about the situation in Alice Springs.

The federal government acknowledges that closing the disadvantage gap is not proceeding fast enough or, in some areas, at all.

Anthony Albanese told parliament on Monday that when the Closing the Gap report was tabled a few months ago “the gaps not only persist but some are getting bigger. The report lays out forensically one lopsided statistic after another, in health, education, incarceration rates and especially damning, life expectancy. These are not gaps, they are chasms.”

In recent days, the PM acted decisively on reimposing alcohol bans in Northern Territory communities. More federal money has been announced for a range of initiatives. That’s all good but, on the basis of history, it won’t be transformational.

Whatever their differences, government and opposition agree that we as a country are falling short. As Dutton said, “Our current actions – for all their good intent – are not bringing about enough practical outcomes for which we can all be proud as a nation”.

It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that these issues actually go beyond more resources, more partnerships, or even more listening to indigenous communities. These are classic “wicked problems”.

Australia’s First Nations people straddle two cultures. How this works for individuals varies dramatically, ranging from those living very traditional lives in remote communities (and wanting to continue doing so) to those committed to their culture and country but with day-to-day existences no different from their non-Indigenous neighbours.

Good policy must respect and accommodate many circumstances. It must underpin the traditional, semi-traditional and town communities with adequate and appropriate services. These (including even clean water) are often lacking now.

Read more:
Enshrining the Voice gives best chance for Closing the Gap, Albanese says

Crucially, good policy must also facilitate choices and social mobility for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. The young girl born into an Alice Springs camp should have a realistic pathway to becoming an urban IT worker, if that is her aspiration.

The overarching challenge is to support the cultural identity of Indigenous Australians while ensuring them the same equality of opportunity non-Indigenous Australians expect. Multiple rights are involved: their rights as first occupants, their rights as modern citizens. It’s a challenge that in real life produces deep complexities for policy areas. We don’t seem to talk much about this fundamental conundrum, because it can be an uncomfortable conversation that seems just too hard. Perhaps the Voice would.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. View from The Hill: Dutton apologises for missing Apology’s symbolism but how will he see the Voice’s symbolism? – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-dutton-apologises-for-missing-apologys-symbolism-but-how-will-he-see-the-voices-symbolism-199788

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daniel Ghezelbash, Associate Professor and Deputy Director, Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law, UNSW Law & Justice, UNSW Sydney, UNSW Sydney

Refugees in Australia on temporary protection visas (TPVs) and Safe Haven Enterprise Visas (SHEVs) now have a pathway to permanent protection, the federal government has confirmed today.

The long-awaited changes will bring much-needed certainty to around 20,000 people who arrived in Australia before January 1 2014, and who were found to be refugees or at risk of serious human rights violations.

These people have endured years in limbo under a policy that research has shown to be unfair, expensive, impractical, and inconsistent with our international obligations.

Temporary protection not only inflicts significant mental harm on asylum seekers, but also created a costly bureaucratic burden for the government. It’s also out of step with the practice of other countries, where temporary protection is reserved for exceptional circumstances.

The changes are a welcome development for people who have lived with uncertainty for a decade, providing them with an opportunity to rebuild their lives with a sense of security. The decision is also highly unlikely to encourage asylum seekers to try to reach Australia by boat.

Yet, the fate of thousands of other refugees and asylum seekers in limbo in Australia remains uncertain.

How did we get here?

The Coalition announced in 2013 that the temporary protection regime would be reintroduced as part of Operation Sovereign Borders.

It was deployed alongside boat pushbacks at sea and offshore processing, with the goal of deterring asylum seekers from travelling by boat to Australia.

The temporary nature of such visas meant refugees had to have their protection claims reassessed every few years. This left refugees in a state of constant fear and anxiety, unsure if they would be allowed to remain in the country or be forced to leave.

Read more:
The trauma of life in limbo for refugees and asylum seekers in immigration detention – podcast

Those on SHEVs who met certain requirements relating to work and study in regional areas were – at least on paper – potentially eligible for other visas. But in practice, those requirements were beyond reach, with only one person ever qualifying.

The changes announced overnight mark a welcome development. But they don’t resolve the precarious fate of all those in the so-called “legacy caseload”. There’s more to do to bring fairness to thousands of other refugees and asylum seekers who remain tangled in Australia’s complex “fast-track” process.

Permanent protection

While the changes fall short of formally abolishing TPV and SHEV visas, people who currently hold such visas will now be able to apply for a “Resolution of Status Visa”. This will allow them to remain permanently in Australia, subject to character, health and security checks.

Permanent residency will provide access to a wide range of rights and benefits that have been out of reach. This includes a pathway to citizenship, access to social security and other benefits, the ability to travel abroad, and access to government subsidised higher education.

After a decade of being separated from their families, such visa holders will now be able to sponsor family members to join them in Australia.

The changes implement a promise the Albanese government took to the 2022 election, widely backed by the Australian public. Polling by the Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law, the Behavioural Insights Team, and Macquarie University showed three out of four Australian voters supported this pathway to permanency.

The Albanese government’s announcement of A$9.4 million of funding for specialist legal service providers is also welcome. This will allow TPV and SHEV holders to access free legal assistance as they go through the visa application process.

Who misses out?

Regrettably, the changes fall short of an across-the-board solution for all 31,000 people subject to the TPV and SHEV regime, called for by refugees, refugee-led organisations and other experts.

This means the approximately 12,000 people who hadn’t yet been issued a TPV or SHEV will continue to live in limbo.

This includes around 6,000 people who had their initial visa application refused, and who are seeking merits or judicial review of that decision. That process is set to continue, and the good news is that those who succeed at review and are granted a TPV or SHEV will now automatically be able to apply for a permanent visa.

However, a further 2,500 people who had their TPV or SHEV cancelled or refused are left out and expected to leave Australia. Anyone with a new credible claim may be able to request ministerial intervention. But this is a highly discretionary process and remains to be seen how willing the minister may be to exercise this power.

It’s concerning these people are left without a better process, given the well-documented flaws in the so called “fast-track” process that was used to assess these claims. This means there’s a real risk that many people who had their initial claims refused may in fact have valid protection claims.

The changes also don’t apply to anyone who tried to reach Australia by boat after January 1 2014, including the more than 1,000 people transferred from offshore processing facilities to Australia for medical treatment.

The government’s position remains that these people will never be allowed to settle in Australia, and should pursue resettlement options abroad, including through Australia’s arrangements with New Zealand.

Read more:
Aus-NZ refugee deal is a bandage on a failed policy. It’s time to end offshore processing

It won’t encourage people smugglers

The changes also don’t affect asylum seekers who may attempt to reach Australia by boat in the future. Boat pushbacks at sea and offshore processing arrangements with Nauru remain in place, as does the bar on such arrivals applying for protection visas in Australia.

What this means is that TPVs and SHEVs remain on the books for future arrivals and would be available if the minister were to decide to lift that bar in any given case.

This makes claims that the changes could encourage asylum seekers to travel to Australia by boat completely baseless.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has expressed a commitment to being strong on borders without being weak on humanity. Today’s announcement is a welcome first step in that direction, but there’s still a great deal left to be done to return a sense of humanity to Australia’s refugee policies.

Refugees affected by the changes can access information about legal assistance here and here.

Daniel Ghezelbash receives funding from Australian Research Council. He is a member of the management committee of Refugee Advice and Casework Services and a Special Counsel at the National Justice Project.

– ref. Changes to temporary protection visas are a welcome development – and they won’t encourage people smugglers – https://theconversation.com/changes-to-temporary-protection-visas-are-a-welcome-development-and-they-wont-encourage-people-smugglers-199763

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Damian Mellifont, Honorary Postdoctoral Fellow, Centre for Disability Research and Policy, University of Sydney

Australia is lagging behind other countries when it comes to employing people with disability.

A gulf exists between the employment rates of working-aged Australians with and without disability. The gap here is 32%, much higher than countries such as Sweden (9.5%), Finland (12.4%), France (9.9%) and Italy (13.3%).

Clearly, Australia needs to do a far better job of employing people with disability. My research, as someone with lived experience of disability, suggests disability services could be a good place to start.

Out of step with an inclusive ethos

The most recent census published by National Disability Services (NDS) – Australia’s peak body for non-government disability services – included new questions about the employment of staff with disability.

Our research team analysed the responses. They indicated many Australian disability services don’t include people with lived experience of disability among their workforce. In fact, almost a quarter of the 288 disability services surveyed said they don’t employ anyone with disability.

Further, only 24% of the organisations said they had someone with disability on their board. Even fewer organisations (19%) employed people with disability in management positions.

This fresh data is timely given the Albanese government’s election promise to include more people with disability as board members and in senior roles. In September, the government appointed Kurt Fearnley as National Disability Insurance Agency chair, along with two new directors: Graeme Innes (former disability discrimination commissioner) and Maryanne Diamond (Australian Network on Disability board member). The appointments brought the number of people with disability on the NDIA board to five.

But with lots of “don’t know” and “we don’t keep records” responses to the NDS census questions, it appears many disability service organisations are not collecting data about employees with disability. By not investing in this data collection, organisations are sending a message they don’t value disability as a part of diversity or inclusion.

This message is out of step with an inclusive ethos which celebrates the contributions Australians with disability make in our communities.

Read more:
A disabled NDIA chair is a great first move in the NDIS reset. Here’s what should happen next

Policy is soft

The NDIS Workforce Capability Framework, which will be rolled out this year, and the NDIS National Workforce Plan: 2021–2025 both recommend employing more people with disability. But both national polices are limited to “soft statements” rather than the steps required to achieve this goal.

For example, the NDIS National Workforce Plan recommends educators promote the demand for disability service workers. This might encourage job seekers with disability to apply. But these kinds of indirect policy approaches lean on the goodwill of the disability services sector.

This soft policy approach also fails to value and support the untapped work potential of people with disability in a sector that is experiencing significant workforce shortages.

Within the disability services sector, lived experience should be valued as a key capability. The National Workforce Plan should be forthright in actions to harness the skills, knowledge and experience of people with disability for roles across the sector.

The Albanese government could also look to its current review of the 1986 Disability Services Act as a legislative mechanism to enforce inclusive action.

Through non-compliance taxation, where companies have to pay additional taxes if they do not employ sufficient numbers of people with disability, the Australian government could encourage disability service organisations to meet disability employment quotas. Initiatives like this have been implemented in many other countries including Italy and France

Quotas are aligned with the concept of “affirmative action”, which aims to achieve equality for groups of people who have historically experienced discrimination, especially in areas such as employment and education.

Alternatively, service providers who currently receive National Disability Insurance Scheme funding could be registered with a condition that requires compliance with disability employment quotas.

Read more:
Low staff turnover, high loyalty and productivity gains: the business benefits of hiring people with intellectual disability

Expect initial resistance

Our research underlines the need for strong policy measures to employ more people with disability. Disability service and leadership roles are a logical place to start this process.

Disability service organisations are missing out on a range of benefits that come from employing more people with lived experience of disability. These benefits include improvements in productivity, staff morale and organisational culture.

The introduction of disability employment quotas might encounter initial resistance. But if the Australian government is serious about improving employment prospects for people with disability, including career prospects within disability services, it will need to take affirmative action.

Damian Mellifont receives funding from NDS.

Jen Smith-Merry receives funding relevant to this article from National Disability Services, the Royal Commission into Violence, Abuse, Neglect and Exploitation of People with Disability, Independent Community Living Australia, the National Health and Medical Research Council, the National Disability Insurance Agency, the NSW Department of Education, the National Disability Research Partnership, Community Options Australia, the Canadian New Frontiers in Research Fund and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

Kim Bulkeley receives funding from the Australian Research Council; Monash University; ASPECT; MacKillop Family Services; NDS. Kim is affiliated with the Centre for Research Excellence – Disability and Health. Kim is on the Practice Governance Committee for Life Without Barriers. Kim is the president of Disability SPOT.

– ref. Australia is lagging when it comes to employing people with disability – quotas for disability services could be a start – https://theconversation.com/australia-is-lagging-when-it-comes-to-employing-people-with-disability-quotas-for-disability-services-could-be-a-start-199405

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hussein Dia, Professor of Future Urban Mobility, Swinburne University of Technology

Four years ago, then-Prime Minister Scott Morrison famously claimed electric vehicles (EVs) would end the weekend. “It’s not going to tow your trailer. It’s not going to tow your boat. It’s not going to get you out to your favourite camping spot,” he said.

His comments drew on the popular misconception EVs are underpowered relative to petrol, gas or diesel cars. Experts refuted the claims, while video of a Tesla towing a 130-tonne Boeing 787 circulated.

But one part of Morrison’s critique had longer resonance. Could utes ever go electric? These light utility cars are favoured by Australia and New Zealand’s two million strong tradie workforce to take materials and tools to jobs. Ute drivers are more likely to drive longer distances, making range anxiety an obstacle.

The answer is yes, though it may take longer than for cars. Only last week Melbourne company SEA Group announced a deal to turn thousands of conventional utes electric.

At present, new electric utes are still more expensive. But over time, their advantages will make them an easy choice.

How are electric utes different?

Electric utes will have much lower running costs from fuel to maintenance. Electricity is cheaper than petrol or diesel. And doing away with the internal combustion engine means maintenance is much cheaper and less frequent.

They have improved performance, with instant torque and rapid acceleration. This makes them suited for towing and driving in environments where quick manoeuvring and agility are needed.

Read more:
New electric cars for under $45,000? They’re finally coming to Australia – but the battle isn’t over

They have more storage because there’s no large engine, leaving room for a front trunk. Batteries are typically located under the floor.

And for tradies, the large battery means they can charge and run their tools without the need for a generator.

Like other electric vehicles, electric utes have better energy efficiency, converting much, much more of the energy stored in the battery into motion. By contrast, internal combustion engines lose most of the energy in their fuel to heat.

But what about ‘range anxiety’?

The average driver in Australia covers 36 kilometres per day, or around 12,000 kilometres each year.

But averages conceal heavy users. Owners of utes and other light commercial vehicles drive almost 40% more than car drivers.

So, can electric utes handle the extra kilometres? In short – yes. Battery technology improves every year. The average distance an EV can drive on a single charge doubled from 138km to 349km in the decade to 2021, based on US models.

Batteries will get better and cheaper, meaning range will increase. You can charge your electric ute at one of almost 5,000 charging stations around Australia – a number which has almost doubled in just three years. It’s also possible to swap out depleted batteries rather than stopping to recharge.

If there’s power available at a worksite, you can also run a power cable to top up your ute while on the job.

Electric utes will be slower to arrive – but the bigger change is already here

This year, Australia will have 100,000 electric vehicles on its roads for the first time.

After years in the doldrums, electric cars finally arrived in numbers. Last year, almost 40,000 hit the roads for the first time – doubling the total in a single year.

But there’s still a way to go. That’s just 3.8% of all new car sales – well below the global average of 12–14% and far behind world leader Norway, where 87% of vehicles sold are now electric.

Cars are comparatively easy to electrify. Utes and trucks are a harder challenge. Even though they come with major advantages, the higher sticker price will deter buyers.

This matters, because transport is now Australia’s third-largest – and fastest growing – source of emissions, accounting for close to 20% of the nation’s emissions.

Of these emissions, freight trucks are responsible for 23%, and light duty road vehicles – which includes utes –  contribute 18%.

For years, Australia has been at the back of the pack. Our lack of emission standards for vehicles has made us a dumping ground for high-polluting cars and trucks.

Electrifying our whole fleet of vehicles – coupled with clean energy to power them – is essential if we are to meet our legislated emissions targets.

Which electric utes are available now – or coming soon?

Australia’s first electric ute is the LDV eT60. It’s hugely expensive at around A$93,000, almost twice the cost of its diesel counterpart.

So how can we be confident electric utes will take off? Because the technology isn’t standing still. As EVs get better and as worldwide battery production skyrockets, prices will fall. Many other models will soon be available.

States and territories are also introducing policies to reduce the cost of purchase, such as basing the cost of registering a vehicle on its emissions.

Within seven years, electric vans and utes are predicted to make up over 50% of all light duty commercial vehicles. This could come even sooner with supportive government policies.

There’s also a renewed interest in local manufacturing. Queensland’s Ace EV Group plans to launch a small, cheap electric ute with the ability to charge your tools from its battery, while other outfits offer to convert your existing car to electric.

The route to electric utes

The switch to electric is – at last – beginning in earnest. But time is of the essence. To accelerate, we need more variety and more affordable EVs, including light duty vehicles and utes.

One policy setting still holding us back is the lack of mandatory fuel efficiency standards. If we had these, we would see much faster change.

Labor last year promised Australia would at last have ambitious mandatory fuel-efficiency standards. They can’t come soon enough.

Read more:
Australia is failing on electric vehicles. California shows it’s possible to pick up the pace

Hussein Dia receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the iMOVE Cooperative Research Centre, Level Crossing Removal Authority, Transport for New South Wales, Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts, and Beam Mobility Holdings.

– ref. Electric utes can now power the weekend – and the work week – https://theconversation.com/electric-utes-can-now-power-the-weekend-and-the-work-week-199600

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jessica Holloway, Senior Research DECRA Fellow, Institute for Learning Sciences and Teacher Education, Australian Catholic University

Australia’s education ministers have just announced changes to NAPLAN that will start right away. These include bringing the testing date forward and changing the way results are reported. According to the ministers:

These new standards will give teachers and parents better information about what a student can do.

What will the changes mean for schools and students?

Remind me, what is NAPLAN?

NAPLAN was introduced in 2008 and is an annual test of all Australian students in years 3, 5, 7 and 9.

It aims to see whether students are developing basic skills in literacy and numeracy.

Earlier testing date

NAPLAN is done by schools in a specific testing window. As of this year, the window will move from May to March.

This year’s test will also be administered entirely online for the first time (with the exception of the Year 3 writing test).

Because it will be done online and completed in term one, results can be made available faster. Parents and schools are due to receive students’ individual reports in July 2023.

Experts have long criticised the late reporting of NAPLAN scores, arguing it did not allow enough time to actually use the results in a given school year. The new approach gives schools more of a chance to work with and respond to NAPLAN data.

What about test prep?

The earlier testing date will mean schools have less time for test preparation. This is not necessarily a negative thing. “Teaching to the test” has always been a significant concern for parents, teachers and researchers because it takes away from more authentic learning opportunities.

With NAPLAN in March, schools have little time to explicitly teach for the test and more of the school year to focus on other content. However, there is a risk it could lead to more intensive test preparation in the first months of the school year for students in years 3, 5, 7 and 9. Or it could see teachers in earlier grades spend more time on test preparation for subsequent years.

New standards

Another key change to NAPLAN is students’ results will now be reported against four levels of achievement instead of the existing ten “proficiency bands”. These new levels are “exceeding”, “strong”, “developing” and “needs additional support”.

Read more:
What parents should and shouldn’t say when talking to their child about NAPLAN results

Some media commentary has suggested the new standards will “water down” existing expectations. However, there will actually be a higher threshold for students to meet the new minimum standard.

For students to be deemed “proficient”, they will have to meet either the “exceeding” or “strong” level, which is designed to “support higher expectations for student achievement”. As such, the changes could actually mean more students (not fewer) are identified as performing below minimum standards.

It is also hoped the new easy-to-read standards will make the results more accessible for students and parents.

However, schools will likely need more resources, such as teacher aides and professional learning, to ensure that students actually receive the extra help they need.

What isn’t being proposed?

The proposed changes are primarily targeted at how NAPLAN data is reported, with a particular focus on more user-friendly forms for teachers, parents and students.

They do not tackle deeper inequalities and achievement disparities in the education system. For example, a recent Productivity Commission report showed 5% to 9% of Australian students in 2021 did not meet NAPLAN minimum standards in reading or numeracy, which translates to “tens of thousands of students” each year.

The report raised important questions about whether minimum standards are set too low and whether systems and schools are doing enough to identify and support students who are falling behind.

For example, students who are below minimum standards at Year 3 struggle to catch up in later years. Also, more than half of all struggling students are not in identified priority equity cohorts (such as Indigenous or rural students). This could mean they are less likely to be identified as needing additional support.

Will this make a difference?

While the new changes are intended to produce positive impacts, it remains to be seen how meaningful they will be. Theoretically, making it easier to receive and understand results will make it easier to improve student performance.

Read more:
Five things we wouldn’t know without NAPLAN

But measuring student learning and achievement is a very complex process and requires nuanced interpretations. All measurement is prone to errors and blind spots. While the new changes might offer schools and parents simpler reports, we must not assume this automatically means cleaner or more useful data.

The changes will certainly be welcomed by many who have argued for earlier and simpler NAPLAN reporting. Hopefully, they will also lead to better outcomes for students and more fruitful conversations about the purpose and importance of NAPLAN for Australian schools.

Jessica Holloway receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Glenn C. Savage receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Steven Lewis receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. What do the NAPLAN test changes mean for schools and students? – https://theconversation.com/what-do-the-naplan-test-changes-mean-for-schools-and-students-199764

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ausma Bernot, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Australian Graduate School of Policing and Security, Charles Sturt University

Australian government offices have begun removing more than 900 Chinese-made surveillance cameras, intercoms, electronic entry systems and video recorders. Last week, a government audit found the technology had been installed in more than 250 departments and agencies.

Concerns over the cameras prompted dire warnings from the shadow cyber-security minister, James Paterson, who has previously called Chinese espionage and foreign interference the greatest threat to Australia’s way of life.

According to Paterson, ASIO Director-General Mike Burgess has expressed similar concerns about the cameras, saying “where data would end up and what else it could be used for would be of great concern to me and my agency”.

China, meanwhile, has reacted to the order to remove the cameras as an “erroneous” action that abuses state power and discriminates against Chinese companies.

So, why are Australian officials so worried about these cameras, and is the level of concern justified?

The world’s largest video surveillance companies

The two China-based companies that supplied these cameras are Hikvision and Dahua. The MIT Technology Review called Hikvision, which is headquartered in China’s eastern city of Hangzhou, “the world’s biggest surveillance company you’ve never heard of”.

Hikvision is indeed the largest manufacturer of video surveillance equipment in the world, selling to around 200 countries. Dahua is Hikvision’s largest global competitor and the second-largest company in this space.

Both companies have authorised dealers to sell their products in Australia and respond to public tenders. In 2021, independent researchers found there were over 60,000 surveillance camera networks from the two companies in Australia – over 41,000 from Hikvision and 18,000 from Dahua.

That’s a small number compared to the companies’ over 700,000 camera networks in the United States and over 800,000 in Vietnam. Removing just 900 is also just a drop in the ocean when you look at the overall number in Australia.

Links to human rights violations

The Australian government’s audit cited the direct links of Dahua and Hikvision to the mass surveillance system that has been set up in the Xinjiang region of China to monitor and control the Uyghur minority.

In 2019, the United States added both companies to its Entity List, which requires foreign companies to file for additional government approvals to continue buying parts or technologies from US companies. (The Biden administration added six more Chinese entities to the blacklist last week, saying they were linked to China’s surveillance balloon program.)

Read more:
Forget spy balloons, the world of surveillance has tried everything from schoolchildren to trained cats

All the Chinese companies on the list have been deemed to be “acting contrary to the national security or foreign policy interests of the United States”. The reasoning was not sugarcoated:

Specifically, these entities have been implicated in human rights violations and abuses in the implementation of China’s campaign of repression, mass arbitrary detention, and high-technology surveillance against Uyghurs, Kazakhs, and other members of Muslim minority groups in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region.

Last year, the UK also banned Hikvision surveillance systems from being installed in “sensitive” sites.

Links to the Chinese Communist Party

Both Hikvision and Dahua sell to and work with the Chinese Communist Party and government.

Investigations by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) found that in 2019, Dahua received around US$19.9 million (A$28.8 million) in Chinese government subsidies. Dahua also has its own Communist Party committee and supplies technology for numerous projects linked to the Chinese government.

Similarly, Hikvision has a party branch, which was led by its deputy general manager in 2015, and is an important supplier for the People’s Liberation Army. The company has also been visited by the Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

On its Chinese language website, Hikvision often showcases collaborations with the government’s public security apparatus.

My research shows that through close cooperation with the Chinese Party and government, surveillance companies can access large subsidies to support their domestic and international businesses. Caught between domestic business growth opportunities and international regulations, companies often choose to work in line with party-state policies. The market opportunities are simply larger this way.

Greater scrutiny by countries like the US, UK and Australia may further push Chinese surveillance companies to seek relationships in countries that are perceived as more stable commercial partners. The Chinese government has been calling for a further de-coupling of the economy from its rivals and strengthening collaborations with China-friendly nations.

For example, when the US, Australia and other allies banned Huawei’s 5G equipment several years ago, countries in the Persian Gulf happily stepped in to fill their place.

Read more:
China is accused of exporting authoritarian technology. But the west has done so, too, more covertly

So, would Australian data be safe?

Links to the Communist Party are just part of the concern. So is the potential for data collected by these companies to be transferred to the Chinese government.

Whether these companies do actually transfer data to Chinese intelligence agencies would be hard to either prove or disprove. Paterson acknowledges “we may never know if data is being exfiltrated from these cameras”. In a statement to Time, Hikvision and Dahua representatives rejected claims they store or share user data.

However, Chinese security laws passed in 2017 can compel Chinese organisations to transfer the data they collect to the government. As a senior analyst from ASPI explains, the companies may say the data wouldn’t be accessed, but “if there is a national security or national defence demand for that data, then it would be.”

The recent TikTok example showed that even if a company claims not to send data to the Chinese government, there may be other ways it can be accessed (such as through a company’s cloud storage).

The Australian focus has so far been on identifying “risk” to national security, but only that coming from China. This is despite other countries, such as the United States, previously being connected to espionage via tech providers.

Instead, Australia should take a more systematic approach that guides the use of all critical data-collecting communications technologies and creates rules that all suppliers must adhere to.

Read more:
Even if TikTok and other apps are collecting your data, what are the actual consequences?

Ausma Bernot does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. There are 60,000 Chinese-made surveillance systems in Australia – how concerned should we be? – https://theconversation.com/there-are-60-000-chinese-made-surveillance-systems-in-australia-how-concerned-should-we-be-199734

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dee Ninis, Earthquake Geologist, Monash University

After devastating earthquakes, it’s common to see discussion of earthquake prediction. An earthquake prediction requires, in advance, the specific time, location and magnitude of a future quake.

However, earthquake prediction has never been achieved successfully in a way which could be repeated.

Often, “predictions” are vague, such as describing the future earthquake as happening “sooner or later”, and the underlying methods are not scientifically founded.

That’s not to say we don’t know anything about what earthquakes will happen in the future. While earthquake scientists are not able to predict earthquakes, we are able to forecast them.

What’s the difference between a prediction and a forecast?

A forecast tells you the chance or the probability of a range of future earthquakes in a given region. This includes how big the quakes may be (their magnitude), and how frequently they will occur over a specified time period.

Earthquake forecasts are built on observations of past earthquake activity, which may stretch back decades, centuries or even thousands of years. These observations are analysed and modelled, and we use our understanding of the physics of earthquake occurrence to determine the chances of future seismic activity.

When looking at catalogues of the time, location and magnitude of past earthquakes, it becomes very clear that damaging earthquakes are more likely to strike along the boundaries of the tectonic plates that make up Earth’s crust than in the interior of those plates.

In recent decades, the installation of worldwide networks of seismic recorders has also allowed the detection of much smaller quakes and tremors – including events too small to be perceived by people. These data have revealed important relationships between the relative numbers of small and large earthquakes which underpin earthquake forecasting. Earthquake forecasts can be made for the short term (weeks, months, years) and the long term (decades to centuries).

How little quakes give us clues about big ones

One of the fundamental discoveries of seismology is the fact that, in a given region, there will be on average about ten times as many magnitude 2.0 earthquakes as magnitude 3.0 quakes. There will also be ten times as many magnitude 3.0 as magnitude 4.0, and so on.

This relation allows us to use small earthquakes, which happen often, to forecast less frequent, large earthquakes – which may not yet exist in historical records.

Observations and analysis of major earthquakes from around the world over the past century or more has also helped us to understand their aftershocks. These shocks diminish over time in a statistically characteristic way.

Read more:
Satellite measurements of slow ground movements may provide a better tool for earthquake forecasting

This relationship is used for short-term forecasts of active earthquake sequences, to estimate the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes in the weeks, months and years following the main quake.

In these forecasts, large magnitude aftershocks are always possible, and in some cases, they can be larger than the mainshock. Such forecasts have been used in many countries around the world.

After the magnitude 7.1 earthquake at Ridgecrest, California, in 2019, a series of forecasts were released, and updated as new data was received. Currently, there is a 10% chance of one aftershock of magnitude 5.0 to magnitude 5.9 in the Ridgecrest region in the next year.

Knowing what to expect during an active sequence is important for planning how to respond and recover from a strong earthquake.

Records in rock

Geological investigations extend the record of major earthquakes beyond those captured in earthquake catalogues. These studies look for evidence of ground-rupturing earthquakes along a particular fault.

Take the Alpine Fault, a 600 km section of the boundary of the Pacific and Australian plates in Aotearoa New Zealand. Analysis of rocks along the fault has provided strong evidence that, over the past 8,000 years or so, one ground-rupturing earthquake of around magnitude 8.0 has occurred roughly every 300 years.

The most recent major rupture on the Alpine Fault was in 1717, more than 300 years ago.

Read more:
NZ’s next large Alpine Fault quake is likely coming sooner than we thought, study shows

Using this data, earthquake scientists have estimated that there is a high probability – a 75% chance – of rupture on this fault in the next 50 years. There is an approximately 80% chance that this earthquake will be a magnitude 8.0 or above.

This type of medium- to long-term forecast allows for preparedness such as planning for emergency response. In the case of the Alpine Fault, the AF8 program was put in place to keep the community informed and engaged, and to plan the response and build resilience for the expected future earthquake.

Maps and codes

Our best long-term forecasts use data from earthquake catalogues and geological studies, combined with earthquake behaviour patterns and other knowledge such as geodetic models – which use GPS networks to tell us how Earth’s surface is under strain and moving as tectonic plates shift.

These forecasts typically provide not just the magnitude and location, but also the range of the intensity of ground-shaking from future earthquakes.

Much like climate forecasts, these forecasts combine multiple models into a single forecast. This is used to map regions of low to high probability of experiencing damaging earthquakes.

These long-term forecasts inform building codes around the world, and guide the design and construction of buildings and infrastructure to withstand strong ground shaking from future earthquakes and, ultimately, to save lives.

Dee Ninis works for the Seismology Research Centre, and is Vice President of the Australian Earthquake Engineering Society.

Matt Gerstenberger is a member of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering and an Associate Editor for the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

– ref. Nobody can predict earthquakes, but we can forecast them. Here’s how – https://theconversation.com/nobody-can-predict-earthquakes-but-we-can-forecast-them-heres-how-199757

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yimin Xu, Ph.D student at School of Humanities & Language, Faculty of Arts, Design & Architecture, UNSW Sydney

A prequel to the 2019 film Wandering Earth, the Chinese blockbuster hit Wandering Earth II opens on a futuristic dystopia where the dying Sun is about to explode and engulf Earth.

A survival strategy is proposed: the Wandering Earth Project will build giant engines and use them to propel Earth away from the Sun.

Amid a global crisis, China rises to save the world. Western countries descend into chaos. Using state-of-the-art made-in-China technologies, China carries out the Wandering Earth Project – disregarding the cost of lives lost.

Now released globally, Wandering Earth II has earned more than half a billion dollars in China since it opened on January 22. It has also achieved critical success in its home country, with domestic media saying it exemplifies a “Chinese-style space romance”.

Adapted from a short science fiction story by celebrated Chinese author Liu Cixin, at first sight the plot will seem very familiar to fans of Hollywood.

But this film speaks to China’s growing ambition of leading global governance, and its embrace of collectivism and consequentialism.

Chinese science fiction

These political imaginations are not recent. They are deeply rooted in China’s political traditions, along with the development of science fiction literature in China.

Western science fiction was first translated into Chinese in 1902, at a time when Chinese thinkers called for learning from the West to “subdue” the West: a self-salvation plan to modernise China.

Science fiction was taken as an educational tool to disseminate Western sciences. Science fiction enabled China to imagine a bright future when it achieved national independence from Westerners – or became a new power in international politics.

An early Chinese science fiction book was The New Era, published in 1908. This book envisioned China would rise as a regional power in 1999 and secure peace in the Asian continent.

Chinese science fiction began by learning from Western counterparts at the turn of the 20th century when works of Jules Verne and H.G. Wells were widely translated and read in China.

After 1949, however, the genre followed the footsteps of the Soviet Union in its imagination of how science and technology could be better used in the hands of communists than Western capitalists.

Read more:
China’s Communist Party at 100: revolution forever

East versus West

Wandering Earth II continues this tradition of praising the science possible under communism, and positioning China as a global power. Here, China invests the most resources – technological, financial and human – in saving Earth.

The West is often represented as a rival in Chinese science fiction literature. Alternatively, it serves as a witness to China’s victory: in Wandering Earth II, even the United States has to consult a Chinese diplomat for advice.

This diplomat, Mr Zhou, bears a remarkable resemblance to Zhou Enlai, China’s first premier under Mao Zedong’s leadership. As a diplomat, Zhou Enlai helped China negotiate regional disputes with neighbouring countries.

Today, Xi’s “community of common destiny” is shaking the world order.

China’s leadership in Wandering Earth II’s “united Earth government” echoes the increasingly assertive image of China in global politics.

Chinese collectivism

The Wandering Earth Project exemplifies Chinese collectivism when old astronauts voluntarily join in a suicide mission – although some of them are not given a chance to speak.

Chinese history is permeated with political myths of individual sacrifices, derived from the long-existing authoritarian regime.

After communism won in 1949, “for the people” became supreme doctrine: the new government worked to eliminate remaining bourgeois liberal thoughts, and build revolutionary heroes. Individual interest was reduced to be secondary to service for the nation.

A key part of Chinese political life is the collective ideology of conspicuous consequentialism: that is, the morality of an action is measured only in its consequences.

Taking human survival as its goal, the supreme artificial intelligence in the film pushes Earth to the verge of destruction to test the willingness of human unity.

Despite the “good” intentions of this artificial intelligence, it drags everyone’s life into extreme danger and leaves more than half the world’s population on a barren and frozen Earth without atmospheric protection.

No one in Wandering Earth II questions this draconian decision-making logic. Indeed, when the AI’s true purpose is revealed at the end of the film, the human survivors eulogise its intelligence, forgetting the high price they have paid.

Individual sacrifices

There are many parallels to draw between Wandering Earth II and modern Chinese society.

Today in China, the authoritarian bureaucracy emphasises results, while the policy goals – whether extensive economic growth or COVID-zero – lead to a moral dilemma between overall outcome and individual losses in the process.

When the greater good is achieved, individual sacrifices are lightly portrayed as a necessary cost and a “detour” in the development – which, of course, can be forgivable, and then forgettable.

In contrast to Kant’s humans are ends, not means, both Wandering Earth II and Chinese politics conceive the opposite.

Read more:
More lunar missions means more space junk around the Moon – two scientists are building a catalog to track the trash

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What the sci-fi blockbuster Wandering Earth II can teach us about China’s global and local aspirations – https://theconversation.com/what-the-sci-fi-blockbuster-wandering-earth-ii-can-teach-us-about-chinas-global-and-local-aspirations-198785

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Suzanne Wilkinson, Professor of Construction Management, Massey University

Flooded roads, our largest international airport underwater, overwhelmed storm water systems and significant sewage discharge into the sea and streams. The recent floods and then cyclone in Auckland are a stark reminder that our basic infrastructure lacks the resilience needed to survive major weather events.

When we talk about infrastructure resilience, we’re talking about an infrastructure system that continues to meet community needs – even after earthquakes, floods or cyclones.

After years of neglect, Auckland’s roads and water systems were simply unable to cope with the unprecedented rainfall and flooding seen in January. While the rainfall may have broken records, there have long been calls to future-proof the city’s infrastructure in the face of climate change.

In large part, this has not happened.

The importance of lifeline utilities

Roads, airports and water systems are included on a list of critical infrastructure described as “lifeline utilities”. These fall under the Civil Defence Emergency Management Act 2002, which requires that the utility is able to function to the fullest possible extent during and after an emergency.

The fact that many of Auckland’s lifeline utilities buckled during the floods points to failures to meet the basic requirements of the Act.

The Auckland Lifelines Group – of which Auckland Council, Auckland Airport, Vector and Watercare are members – falls under the National Lifelines Council. Both organisations have been helping Auckland’s essential utilities develop resilience and keep critical infrastructure running during an emergency.

They have also been calling for more investment in infrastructure resilience, including highlighting the problem in transportation.

Remove profit requirements

According to the 2020 edition of the New Zealand Critical Lifelines Infrastructure National Vulnerability Assessment, significant action is required to prevent lifeline utilities from being locked into inflexible or short-term response options.

The report also took a dim view of the funding and regulatory models for both public and private utility organisations that required a commercial return on resilient infrastructure improvement projects.

Read more:
Slippery slopes: why the Auckland storm caused so many landslides – and what can be done about it

Creating resilience in infrastructure should not require a commercial return on investment. Instead, resilience should be embedded in every decision made regarding infrastructure development and improvement.

The Infrastructure Commission endorses this view in their recently released report. The authors argued that making New Zealand’s infrastructure more resilient and investing in resilience planning will enable quicker recovery from natural and human-created disasters, minimising the impact on our society and economy.

Long-term planning needed

We need to rethink what infrastructure gets built and what gets retrofitted. We also need to reexamine how we incorporate and fund resilience thinking across the organisations that manage our lifeline utilities.

Resilience needs to start at the organisational level by engaging staff in problem solving, scenario planning and by providing training to develop innovative thinking.

Resilience also needs to be embedded at all levels of an organisation. Without training and advice, employees are less likely to be proactive and useful during an event.

During the recent flooding, the response from Auckland Airport, Auckland Transport and Auckland Council showed there was a lack of organisational resilience planning.

Read more:
Auckland floods: even stormwater reform won’t be enough – we need a ‘sponge city’ to avoid future disasters

But there is a more serious issue: we have infrastructure that is ageing, built in unsuitable places or built for today’s population, not the population of the future. Resilience requires an inter-generational approach, which means creating infrastructure that will suit growing populations and changes in the way we live.

Our research on flooding in Northland advocated for better community-led response plans that were integrated with infrastructure improvements and collaboration with councils to reduce the risk of future floods.

The current methods of decision making are not optimal, meaning infrastructure is built without an intergenerational view. We inevitably end up with infrastructure that is not fit for the populations they are supposed to serve, such as new roads that are congested soon after opening.

Nor do our design standards adapt swiftly to new pressures that come with climate change.

Read more:
Climate change is already putting the heat on insurance companies – Auckland’s floods could be a turning point

Robustness and redundancy

Infrastructure needs to have some robustness and redundancy. Robustness means being able to withstand hazard events without significant damage. Redundancy means spare capacity, such as alternative routes for transport.

With both, we have infrastructure that can operate during unusual conditions. For Auckland Transport, for example, this means rethinking routes and creating alternatives before events occur. It also means creating a network strong enough to cope with increased demands beyond business-as-usual traffic levels.

Utility providers don’t have to reinvent the wheel to identify what needs to change. Auckland Lifelines Group, the National Lifelines Council and Massey University’s School of Built Environment have done research to identify critical infrastructure, critical interdependencies between infrastructure and how to build resilient infrastructure.

Critical infrastructure – such as airports, significant roads and our water systems – should be treated as too important to fail. The recent floods are a warning that prioritising resilience for our infrastructure is urgently needed.

Read more:
The Auckland floods are a sign of things to come – the city needs stormwater systems fit for climate change

Suzanne Wilkinson receives funding from The Building Research Association of New Zealand (BRANZ) for research on resilience and zero carbon and the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) for an Endeavour Research Programme (CanConstructNZ).

– ref. Flood warning: NZ’s critical infrastructure is too important to fail – greater resilience is urgently needed – https://theconversation.com/flood-warning-nzs-critical-infrastructure-is-too-important-to-fail-greater-resilience-is-urgently-needed-198872

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ben Rich, Senior lecturer in History and International Relations, Curtin University

Mega-influencer Andrew Tate is once again back in the news as he battles charges of organised crime and human trafficking in Romania.

Tate gained infamy last year after being banned on most major social media platforms for promoting a variety of aggressively misogynistic positions designed to stir controversy and draw attention to his brand.

But while widespread public attention was drawn to Tate only recently, his reputation as a thought leader and “top g” in the online “manosphere” community has been longstanding.

Indeed, Tate’s ability to stoke and exploit the anxieties and grievances driving the manosphere are unprecedented, and have played a key role in him amassing millions of fans and hundreds of millions of dollars.

The lure of the ‘manosphere’

The manosphere is an overlapping collection of online men’s support communities that have emerged as a response to feminism, female empowerment, and the alienating forces of neoliberalism.

While this is widely understood, a lot less energy has been directed to understanding why and how men are attracted to these extreme communities in the first place.

The manosphere’s appeal can be perplexing, particularly for parents, teachers or friends trying to make sense of how the men in their lives suddenly adopt aggressively misogynistic views.

Read more:
The online ‘hierarchy of credibility’ that fuels influencers like Andrew Tate

But while the community’s content presents deeply concerning perspectives on women, it also offers explanations for, and solutions to, a very real set of issues facing young men.

A tranche of data illustrates these growing challenges. Men are rapidly falling behind in education engagement and outcomes. Rates of young male economic inactivity have risen considerably over the past two decades.

The intimate relations of young men also appear to be in decline. One report suggests rates of sexual activity have dropped by nearly 10% since 2002.

Suicide rates have risen significantly in men in particular over the past decade.

We’re also facing a loneliness crisis, which is particularly concentrated in young people and men.

The manosphere appeals to its audience because it speaks to the very real lives of young men under the above factors – romantic rejection, alienation, economic failure, loneliness, and a dim vision of the future.

The major problem lies in its diagnosis of the cause of male disenfranchisement, which fixates on the impacts of feminism. Here it contrasts the growing challenges faced by men with the increasing social, economic and political success experienced by women. This zero-sum claim posits that female empowerment must necessarily equate to male disempowerment, and is evidenced through simplified and pseudoscientific theories of biology and socioeconomics.

For many young men, their introduction to the manosphere begins not with hatred of women, but with a desire to dispel uncertainty about how the world around them works (and crucially, how relationships work).

The foundations of the manosphere may not strictly centre on misogyny, as is popularly imagined, but in young men’s search for connection, truth, control and community at a time when all are increasingly ill-defined.

Profiteering off anxiety

Since its inception, the manosphere has been rife with predatory influencers seeking to profit off the anxieties unleashed by this ambiguity.

Driven by a desire to reassert a romantic masculine aesthetic ideal in a world of social media unrealities, members of the manosphere often become willing consumers of a wide variety of products and services to “solve” their problems. These range from vitamin and gym supplements, personal coaching, self-help courses, and other subscription-based services.

But the influencers aren’t just capitalising on a sense of crisis passively – they actively cultivate it, as our research shows.

Figures like Tate, Canadian psychologist Jordan Peterson and “alpha” strongman Elliott Hulse expend huge amounts of energy and capital fomenting a sense of crisis around these issues, and positioning themselves at the centre. No more clearly was this illustrated than in Tate’s “Hustler’s University”, which created a series of exclusive chat rooms promising men a solution to their fears and centred on Tate’s personage and teachings.

Such communities solidify the claims made by their leaders, creating feedback loops that contribute to a climate of tension and hysteria. Members are actively encouraged to ridicule those who aren’t willing to acknowledge the “feminist conspiracies” that supposedly underpin the social and political world. Non-believers are seen as contemptible, weak and ignorant, dismissed through an ever-growing newspeak lexicon as “simps”, “cucks” and “betas”.

The community can also be mobilised to spread the message and brand of the influencer to the wider public, as demonstrated by Tate.

Having successfully isolated and indoctrinated community members, influencers can then rely on them as a persistent source of support and revenue, allowing them to further reinvest and continue this cycle of growth. This suggests a key way to push back on the wider effects of the manosphere is the targeted disruption of such feedback loops and the prevention of future ones emerging.

Empathy, patience and support

Tate and the manosphere didn’t manifest spontaneously. They’re symptoms of a deeper set of challenges young men are facing.

These problems won’t be addressed by simply deplatforming people like Tate. While this may often be necessary in the short term, savvier influencers will inevitably emerge, responding to the same entrenched issues and employing the tactics to greater effect, while avoiding the mistakes of their predecessors.

Read more:
‘Toxic masculinity’: what does it mean, where did it come from – and is the term useful or harmful?

In confronting the manosphere we need to understand and take seriously its appeal to lost men and the centrality of influencers in this process. We can be as critical of it as we want to be. But we also need to understand what it provides for many: a community and place of belonging, a defined enemy, direction, certainty, solutions to deep and systemic issues and, perhaps most importantly, hope.

We also need to avoid the kneejerk stigmatising and dismissal of people who fall into the manosphere. Simple ostracism tends only to entrench attitudes and reinforce the narratives of persecution spun by Tate and his ilk.

Instead, we need to use empathy, tolerance and patience to support men in ways that lead them away from these unpleasant boroughs of the internet and make them feel connected with wider society.

Ben Rich has received funding from the US State Department as part of a project on combatting extremism and disinformation. This includes components addressing the manosphere.

Eva Bujalka has received funding from the US State Department as part of a project on combatting extremism and disinformation. This includes components addressing the manosphere.

– ref. The draw of the ‘manosphere’: understanding Andrew Tate’s appeal to lost men – https://theconversation.com/the-draw-of-the-manosphere-understanding-andrew-tates-appeal-to-lost-men-199179

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Breadon, Program Director, Health and Aged Care, Grattan Institute

For the land of the fair go, Australia has work to do on our health. Although the average Australian’s life expectancy is very high, that’s not true for everyone.

Indigenous Australians, and Australians with little formal education, can expect to die about eight years younger than their fellow citizens. People who live in rural areas will die about two to three years earlier, on average, than people who live in cities.

And because chronic diseases create most of these gaps, these disadvantaged people will spend more years living in ill health than other Australians.

These statistics don’t begin to capture the immense suffering behind the numbers, or the deep injustice of gaping health gaps in a wealthy nation like ours.

The government has promised to set up a Centre for Disease Control (CDC), which will tackle both infectious and chronic disease. A new Grattan Institute report shows how it can be set up to drive down rates of chronic disease. This will help reduce health disparities, especially if the CDC builds equity into its DNA.

Chronic disease lies at the heart of health inequities

Much of the life-expectancy gap between the most and least disadvantaged Australians is explained by skewed rates of chronic disease.

The most disadvantaged fifth of Australians are about 20% more likely to be living with one chronic disease, and about twice as likely to be living with two or more, compared with the most advantaged fifth of Australians.

It’s estimated that about 80% of the gap in life expectancy between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians is caused by chronic diseases.

Gaps in health start before sickness

Some chronic diseases are difficult to prevent. There is little we can currently do to stop the onset of type one diabetes or cystic fibrosis, for example.

But other chronic diseases are the result of risk factors such as smoking, alcohol abuse, or being overweight or obese, which we can change.

These so-called modifiable risk factors are the cause of about 40% of the chronic disease burden in Australia. And, like chronic diseases, rates are significantly higher among disadvantaged Australians.

Compared with the most advantaged fifth of Australians, the most disadvantaged fifth are about 60% more likely to be obese, more than twice as likely to have high psychological distress, almost three times as likely to do no physical activity, and over three times as likely to smoke daily.

This means inequity is already baked in well before people get ill.

Isn’t being healthy a choice?

Modifiable risk factors are sometimes branded as “lifestyle choices”. But this glosses over the fact our choices are heavily influenced by environmental and social factors.

For example, more disadvantaged Australians are more likely to find it hard to get or afford sufficient healthy food, which increases the risk of obesity. The increased and often chronic stress that disadvantage brings is associated with smoking more, and may have links with obesity.

Disadvantage is also intertwined with fewer educational opportunities, and education is strongly linked to health because it provides people with better knowledge of health and healthy behaviours. It shapes employment opportunities and can provide a stronger sense of personal control, which helps people make healthier choices.

Many modifiable risk factors may seem like choices, but the causes are often structural. There’s little Australians living in disadvantage can do about these influences, but they all increase the chance of modifiable risk factors, and sickness.

A CDC has a chance to reduce health gaps

The proposed Australian Centre for Disease Control, promised by the Albanese government, is an opportunity to tackle these structural barriers.

The centre has a big job to do. Australia has fallen behind our peers when it comes to prevention. As our report shows, we spend about 2% of the health budget on public health, which is less than one-third of what Canada spends, less than half of what the United Kingdom spends, and far below the OECD average.

While many other countries have introduced sugar taxes or taken action to reduce people’s intake of salt and trans fats, Australia’s prevention progress has largely stalled.

Our report shows that to have an impact, the CDC must be set up for success, with independence and the right role and resources. And the federal and state governments must make a new funding deal to make the investments the centre recommends.

Read more:
How should an Australian ‘centre for disease control’ prepare us for the next pandemic?

A focus on fairness

Reducing risk factors across the population would have a big impact on health inequity. But to make the biggest gains, the communities at highest risk should be the focus. The CDC should understand who those communities are, and what will work for them.

One of its central roles should be providing technical advice to Australian governments. This advice must take equity into account.

When the centre looks at what works in prevention, it should consider who will benefit. Initiatives that disproportionately benefit disadvantaged groups should be valued more highly.

When the centre advises government on progress and targets, it should reflect not just how the average Australian is going, but also the status of groups that have traditionally been left behind.

To help the centre understand health disparities and the perspectives of people who experience them, the staff, leadership and culture of the centre should be diverse and inclusive, representing the broader community. And the centre should also listen to different groups that face the biggest barriers to good health, using a range of consultation and engagement methods.

Narrowing the health gap that divides Australians won’t happen overnight. And not all the structural barriers that create health inequalities can be solved by another government agency.

But for too long, these gaps have received too little attention. A strong, equity-focused CDC can help ensure that, when it comes to their health, all Australians get a fair go.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Fair health outcomes start with prevention. The new Centre for Disease Control can make it happen – https://theconversation.com/fair-health-outcomes-start-with-prevention-the-new-centre-for-disease-control-can-make-it-happen-199387

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Divya Narain, PhD Candidate, The University of Queensland

In a remote archipelago at the southernmost tip of India lies the Great Nicobar Island. This pristine ecosystem is a globally important nesting site of the largest turtles on Earth – leatherback turtles. But now, the site is threatened by a massive infrastructure plan.

The Indian government recently granted key approvals for an international container port on the island, which may prevent leatherback turtles from reaching their nesting sites.

Great Nicobar Island spans about 1,000 square kilometres and lies about halfway between India and Thailand. It is home to the indigenous Shompen and Nicobarese people, and a rich diversity of plant and animal species.

To date, the island has remained relatively untouched by large-scale development. The port proposal would change that.

A critically endangered turtle population

Leatherback turtles can grow up to two meters long and weigh as much as 700 kilograms. The species has existed since the age of the dinosaurs, but its numbers are in decline.

The sub-population of turtles that nests at Galathea Bay, where the port would be built, is listed as critically endangered.
The turtles forage in temperate coastal waters in Australia and Africa, before making the long annual journey to the island.

According to the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, loss of nesting sites is one of the key threats to the turtles’ survival. Other threats include fishing activities, collisions with boats, egg collection for human consumption, and ingestion of plastic waste.

Galathea Bay was also heavily damaged by the 2004 tsunami, which destroyed most of the beaches where leatherback turtles nest.

Read more:
Australian endangered species: Leatherback Turtle

Massive development, massive impact

The huge infrastructure project planned for Great Nicobar Island includes:

• a mega trans-shipment port, where large volumes of cargo will be moved from one vessel to another for shipping to another port

• an international airport which will handle 4,000 passengers an hour at its peak

• a power plant

• a new township.

Experts have raised concern about the environmental damage the project will cause. In particular, they say the port’s construction and operation is likely to prevent the leatherback turtle from accessing nesting sites.

The plan includes constructing breakwaters – barriers built in the sea to protect the port from waves. The barriers reduce the opening to Galathea Bay by 90% – from 3 kilometres to 300 metres.

Dredging and construction are likely to significantly alter other coastal habitats on the island, including mangroves, coral reefs, sandy and rocky beaches, coastal forests and estuaries.

One media report warned the plan will involve clearing almost a million trees.

The port is also likely to damage the habitat of scores of other rare and endemic species including macaques, shrews and pigeons.

Read more:
India must stop deforesting its mountains if it wants to fight floods

How was such a disastrous project approved?

The approvals granted so far rest on a proposal to “offset” the environmental damage caused by the port by improving bioldiversity elsewhere.

In this case, the offset involves planting trees in the Indian state of Haryana, thousands of kilometres from the project site and in a vastly different ecological zone.

This is allowed under Indian law. But it’s a gross violation of the internationally accepted “like for like” principle guiding biodiversity offsetting. This principle requires that the biodiversity affected by a given project be conserved through an ecologically equivalent offset, so no net loss of biodiversity occurs.

The Great Nicobar Island plan will damage complex and diverse tropical and coastal ecosystems and several rare and endemic species. This would purportedly be “offset” by planting trees in a sub-tropical semi-arid ecosystem thousands of kilometres away.

There is no provision in the plan to compensate for damage to turtle nesting. This alone violates the “like for like” principle.

Even more worryingly, research has shown most compensatory tree-planting in India involves monoculture timber species, which does not encourage a wide variety of native plant and animal species.

Looking ahead

The approvals granted to the port project contain a number of conditions. They reportedly include:

• establishing a long-term research unit, focused on sea turtles, including a base at Great Nicobar Island

• requiring that the company behind the project has a “well laid down environmental policy duly approved by the board of directors”

• where possible, safeguarding trees that contain nesting holes for endemic owls.

But according to India’s Conservation Action Trust, approvals were granted before important impact assessment studies were carried out. What’s more, the conditions do not stipulate that work must stop if damage occurs to Indigenous communities or the environment.

Any large development project affecting a critically endangered species should meet rigorous environmental standards. This includes ensuring biodiversity offsets are consistent with internationally accepted principles.

And if the harm cannot be adequately offset, the project should not be allowed to proceed.

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Divya Narain does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. A mega port in India threatens the survival of the largest turtles on Earth – https://theconversation.com/a-mega-port-in-india-threatens-the-survival-of-the-largest-turtles-on-earth-197021