Interest rates will eventually fall but it’s a bit early for borrowers to break out the champagne

December 20, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra

Suddenly the talk in global financial markets has spun from “when will interest rates next rise?” to “how soon before they fall?”.

Some commentators are flagging the shift as a “pivot party”.

This change has been most prominent in the United States. It was prompted by the Federal Reserve, the US equivalent of the Reserve Bank of Australia, releasing its latest “dot chart”. This shows most members of its policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee expect their interest rate would be lower by the end of 2024.

FOMC participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy — US Federal Reserve, CC BY-SA

The recent review of the Reserve Bank in Australia wanted more transparency. But, after the whacking former Governor Phil Lowe got when he wrongly predicted rates would stay low until “at least” 2024, I doubt his successor Michele Bullock will be keen to publish a similar chart.

Even so, financial markets in Australia are also now implying interest rates will fall over the course of next year.

The latest indicators

The Australian economy has continued to slow according to the latest national accounts. Consumer spending did not increase at all in the September quarter, despite an increase in population. Exports contracted. Overall GDP grew by a mere 0.2%.

The news from the labour market was mixed. There was a solid rise in employment in November. The hours worked data, however, have been basically flat for the past six months.

The government maintained fiscal discipline in the mid-year budget update released last week. They saved rather than spent almost all the extra revenue from higher than expected commodity prices.

The minutes of the Reserve’s latest meeting on December 5 show the board noted “encouraging signs of progress” in returning inflation to the target.

Subsequent events have suggested inflation will likely continue on its downward trajectory, which means the Reserve has increased interest rates enough.

Another development since the Reserve last met is an update of the
Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy between Treasurer Jim Chalmers and the board. This sets out the common understanding between them about Australia’s monetary policy framework.

Much of this statement carries over the existing framework. The bank’s primary tool is its cash rate target and it is varied to achieve a medium-term inflation target of 2-3%. Employment considerations influence how quickly it is regained when shocks move inflation away from it.

The statement explicitly refers to the midpoint of the target, reflecting a suggestion in the recent Reserve Bank review. Some commentators have interpreted this as indicating the bank cannot cut rates as its forecast for inflation only has it reaching the top, not the middle, of the range by the end of 2025.

I disagree. The bank has always aimed at the midpoint of the target as the most likely way to ensure inflation averages within it. If the board was happy at its December meeting to have reached 3% by the end of 2025 on its way to achieving 2.5% later, there is no reason for it to change this view in February.

So what will the Reserve Bank do?

On balance, the economic news does not suggest the Reserve Bank will feel a need to raise rates in February. But with inflation still high, and plenty of uncertainty, they are unlikely to cut rates any time soon. The bank does not generally make sharp U-turns with the average gap between the last interest rate increase in a cycle and the first cut being ten months.

At its next meeting, on February 5-6, the Reserve board may have a new member, deputy governor Andrew Hauser, and a new adviser, chief economist Sarah Hunter. They share a British background so will be familiar with the Bank of England model, which influenced the Reserve Bank review.

The impact of (eventual) lower interest rates

The movements in the Reserve Bank’s interest rate matters most to the third of households with a mortgage. Most of these have variable rate loans where the interest rate closely follows that set by the Reserve. An interest rate cut would ease the cost-of-living pressures they have been facing.

A household with the average loan size of around A$600,000 would have seen their monthly repayments rise by almost $1,700 since early 2022. This would drop by $100 if rates were cut by 0.25%.

While the impact on mortgagees always gets the most attention, interest rates affect other members of the community too.

Lower interest rates mean a lower income to retirees dependent on interest on their savings. They tend to boost the prices of assets such as shares and houses. They encourage borrowing and spending and reduce incentives to save. They tend to lower the exchange rate, making imports more expensive for Australians but our exports cheaper to foreigners. The net impact is generally to lower unemployment.

A lot of people are therefore looking forward to an interest rate cut. But they should not be holding their breath.

Financial markets may be getting prematurely excited. The last thing the Reserve Bank would want is to find themselves having lowered rates too quickly and see inflation turn back up, necessitating the interest rate cut to be reversed. More likely, they will wait for inflation to drop much closer to their target before there is any easing of interest rates.

John Hawkins is a former senior economist at the Reserve Bank and has worked as an economic forecaster at the Bank for International Settlements and the Australian Treasury.

– ref. Interest rates will eventually fall but it’s a bit early for borrowers to break out the champagne – https://theconversation.com/interest-rates-will-eventually-fall-but-its-a-bit-early-for-borrowers-to-break-out-the-champagne-220038

Is Joko Widodo paving the way for a political dynasty in Indonesia?

By The Conversation -

December 20, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Lindsey, Malcolm Smith Professor of Asian Law and Director of the Centre for Indonesian Law, Islam and Society, The University of Melbourne

Joko Widodo, popularly known as “Jokowi”, has served as Indonesia’s president for almost a decade. He is hugely popular, garnering around 80% in some polls. But the constitution bars him from serving a third term in office.

Repeated proposals in recent years years to amend the constitution to allow Jokowi to run again have gained little public or political traction. This leaves him unable to contest the next presidential election in February.

Key powerbrokers, however, have been keen to make the most of the tens of millions of votes that Jokowi commands – and maintain his inner circle’s influence after he leaves the palace next year.

Perhaps their most conspicuous strategy to do this has been to install Jokowi’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as vice presidential running mate for Prabowo Subianto, now ahead in the polls with a huge lead of 20 points.

Concerning legal moves

Getting Gibran into that position required the co-option of one of Indonesia’s most respected judicial institutions – the Constitutional Court.

The main roadblock for Gibran (and Jokowi) was that the election law imposed a minimum age of 40 for presidential and vice-presidential candidates.

In a case challenging that age limit, Chief Justice Anwar Usman, Jokowi’s brother-in-law and Gibran’s uncle, intervened to ensure a majority of judges would reverse the court’s position in three previous decisions.

As a result, the election law was altered to permit younger candidates to stand if they had previously held office as head of a sub-national government. Gibran, 36, just happens to have served as mayor of Solo in central Java, a job his father once held, and so the decision meant he could now run for vice president.

The decision has trashed of the reputation of the Constitutional Court, raising questions about its continuing credibility and future, with witty hackers changing its name on Google Maps to the “family court”.

However, not all judges agreed with the decision. Three judges dissented, with some raising questions about Anwar’s behaviour and his obvious conflict of interest. Public outrage over the decision led to the court’s ethics tribunal removing him from his position as chief justice last month.

Yet, Anwar remains one of the nine judges on the court, the decision he is accused of “fixing” stands, and Gibran’s nomination as a vice presidential candidate can probably not be reversed.

Worse, the national legislature has been debating amendments to the Constitutional Court statute that could enable the removal of the dissenting judges. Ironically, this might be through the imposition of a minimum age requirement on Constitutional Court judges. One of the court’s most respected judges, Saldi Isra, is under the proposed age, and appears to be a target.

Jokowi picks a side

From the outside, it may seem like Gibran and Prabowo are strange bedfellows. Prabowo is a former son-in-law of the dictatorial former president Soeharto. He is a cashiered former general who has long been accused of serious human rights abuses, including alleged killings in East Timor, Papua and even the capital, Jakarta.

Prabowo has never faced trial, although several of his men were tried and convicted. He has denied the allegations against him.

Ironically, he was also Jokowi’s bitter opponent in the past two elections, which polarised Indonesia. Prabowo’s refusal to accept his electoral defeats in 2014 and 2019 led to dramatic challenges in the Constitutional Court.

But the enmity between Jokowi and Prabowo seemed to evaporate almost immediately after the court challenges failed, with Prabowo pragmatically accepting the job of defence minister in Jokowi’s cabinet.

Now, Jokowi appears to have decided that Prabowo, of all people, offers the best chance to build a dynasty to keep some sort of hold on power. Certainly few see Gibran – largely silent or inarticulate in public appearances – as serious leadership material. He is widely assumed to be a proxy for Jokowi.

This dynasty-building exercise has involved a massive and expensive campaign that many complain has co-opted government agencies and programs to promote Prabowo and Gibran.

It has also involved reinventing Prabowo, a one-time special forces general, as a gemoy (cute) grandpa, with viral video clips showing him dancing and playing with kittens.

Jokowi’s alignment with Prabowo (through his son) is all the more surprising given Jokowi was a longtime member of PDI-P (Indonesian Democracy Party – Struggle). PDI-P is Indonesia’s largest political party. It twice successfully nominated Jokowi for the presidency, and it has its own candidate, Ganjar Pranowo, in February’s election. Party rules require Jokowi to support him.

By abandoning Ganjar for Prabowo (who has his own party, Gerindra), Jokowi will effectively be stealing votes from PDI-P and declaring war on its boss, the formidable – and vengeful – former president, Megawati Soekarnoputeri, the daughter of Indonesia’s first president. She will fight hard to maintain her party’s power and influence.

Is Indonesia’s democracy under threat?

Despite the political chaos these moves have sparked, Jokowi’s bet that his loyalists and the general public don’t really care about constitutional crises or claims of dynasty building seems to be paying off.

Of course, votes could still shift in the next month and a half. However, there is a sense the momentum created by Jokowi’s support for Prabowo may make his victory inevitable. Some former critics are already quietly changing sides to ensure a share of the spoils.

Jokowi has previously said “our democracy has gone too far”. And Prabowo has openly called for a return to the model of Suharto’s authoritarian New Order.

So, a Prabowo-Gibran victory may be good news for the elites now in power, but it will likely be bad news for Indonesian democracy. It will confirm – and probably accelerate – the regression that most observers, including Freedom House, agree is already advanced under Jokowi.

Many voters seem untroubled by this. Indonesia’s post-Soeharto “Reformasi” wave of democratisation is mere history for Indonesia’s Gen Z, who appear to have limited interest in all that was achieved two decades ago and no experience of living under authoritarianism.

But the activist legal NGOs that form Indonesia’s policy “brains trust” are depressed and anxious. Certainly, some are protesting, and a few are even challenging the court decision that allowed Gibran to run.

However, many are intimidated by criminal charges that members of Jokowi’s administration have brought against critics with increasing frequency in recent years. From the perspective of civil society, Jokowi’s strategists seem to have a fix in place and dark and difficult times lie ahead.

Tim Lindsey receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Simon Butt receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Is Joko Widodo paving the way for a political dynasty in Indonesia? – https://theconversation.com/is-joko-widodo-paving-the-way-for-a-political-dynasty-in-indonesia-219499

19-million-year-old fossil jaw bone hints the biggest whales first evolved somewhere unexpected

By The Conversation -

December 20, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Patrick Rule, Research Affiliate, Monash University

The baleen whale fossil at Museums Victoria Research Institute. Eugene Hyland, Museums Victoria

Baleen whales are the titans of the ocean, the largest animals to have ever lived. The record holder is the blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus), which can reach lengths of up to 30 metres. That’s longer than a basketball court.

However, throughout their evolutionary history, most baleen whales were relatively much smaller, around five metres in length. While still big compared to most animals, for a baleen whale that’s quite small.

However, new fossil discoveries from the Southern Hemisphere are beginning to disrupt this story. The latest is an unassuming fossil from the banks of the Murray River in South Australia.

Roughly 19 million years old, this fossil is the tip of the lower jaws (or “chin”) of a baleen whale estimated to be around nine metres in length, which makes it the new record holder from its time. This find has been published today in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

Illustration of a whale with a piece of yellow bone superimposed on its lower jaw — The roughly 19-million-year-old fossil ‘chin’ bone superimposed on a Murray River whale illustration.
Art by Ruairidh Duncan

What are baleen whales?

Most mammals have teeth in their mouth. Baleen whales are a strange exception. While their ancestors had teeth, today’s baleen whales instead have baleen – a large rack of fine, hair-like keratin used to filter out small krill from the water.

This structure enabled baleen whales to feed efficiently on enormous shoals of tiny zooplankton in productive parts of the ocean, which facilitated the evolution of larger and larger body sizes.

Illustration of a large dark humpback whale with its mouth open, showing off what looks like a solid filter at the top of its mouth — The bristle-like baleen, as shown on a humpback whale.
Art by Ruairidh Duncan

The ‘missing years’ of whale evolution

Various groups of toothed whales terrorised the ocean for millions of years, including some that were the ancestors of the toothless baleen whales. Yet at some time between 23 and 18 million years ago these ancient “toothed baleen whales” went extinct.

We aren’t exactly sure when, as fossil whales from this episode in Earth’s history are exceedingly rare. What we do know is immediately after this gap in the whale fossil record, only the relatively small, toothless ancestors of baleen whales remained.

A dark silhouette of a whale next to a smaller figure of a whale and even smaller human figure — The newly described extinct Murray River whale (9 metres) next to a fin whale (26 metres) and a human diver (2 metres).
Art by Ruairidh Duncan, graphic by Rob French

Scientists previously thought baleen whales kept to relatively small proportions until the ice ages (which began from about 3–2.5 million years ago). But the majority of research on trends in the evolutionary history of whales is based on the reasonably well-explored fossil record from the Northern Hemisphere – a notable bias that likely shaped these theories.

Crucially, new fossil finds from the Southern Hemisphere are starting to show us that at least down south, whales got bigger much earlier than previous theories suggest.

An unexpected find

More than 100 years ago, palaeontologist Francis Cudmore found the very tips of a large pair of fossil whale jaws eroding out of the banks of the Murray River in South Australia. These 19-million-year-old fossils made their way to Museums Victoria and remained unrecognised in the collection until they were rediscovered in a drawer by one of the authors, Erich Fitzgerald.

Using equations derived from measurements of modern-day baleen whales, we predicted the whale this fossilised “chin” came from was approximately nine metres long. The previous record holder from this early period of whale evolution was only six metres long.

Together with other fossils from Peru in South America, this suggests larger baleen whales may have emerged much earlier in their evolutionary history and the large body size of whales evolved gradually over many more millions of years than previous research suggested.

An artist's reconstruction of the extinct whale, showing where the fossil is located, and a map of Australia showing the location it was found — The fossilised baleen whale ‘chin’ was found along the banks of the Murray River in South Australia.
Art by Ruairidh Duncan, photo by Eugene Hyland

The Southern Hemisphere as the cradle of gigantic whale evolution

The large whale fossils from Australasia and South America seem to suggest that for most of the evolutionary history of baleen whales, whenever a large baleen whale shows up in the fossil record, it is in the Southern Hemisphere.

Strikingly, this pattern persists despite the fact the Southern Hemisphere contains less than 20% of the known fossil record of baleen whales. While this is an unexpectedly strong signal from our research, it doesn’t come as a complete surprise when we consider living baleen whales.

Today, the temperate seas of the Southern Hemisphere are connected by the chilly Southern Ocean, which surrounds Antarctica and is extremely productive, supporting the greatest biomass of marine megafauna on Earth.

A graph, showing that baleen whales in the Southern Hemisphere were larger than Northern Hemisphere whales throughout most of the last 23 million years — Fossils from the Southern Hemisphere, including the Murray River whale fossil, are demonstrating that whales may have evolved large body sizes first in the Southern Hemisphere.
Art by Ruairidh Duncan

Around the time baleen whales started evolving from big to gigantic, the strength of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current was intensifying, eventually leading to the present day powerhouse Southern Ocean.

Today, baleen whales are ecosystem engineers, their huge bodies consuming tremendous amounts of energy. Upon death, these whales provide an abundance of nutrients to deep-sea ecosystems.

As we learn more about the evolutionary history of whales, such as when and where their large size evolved, we can begin to understand just how ancient their role in the ocean ecosystem may have been and how it could shift in tune with global climate change.

James Patrick Rule currently receives funding from an Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council UKRI Fellowship, and previously received funding from an Australian Research Council Discovery Project.

Erich Fitzgerald received funding from an Australian Research Council Linkage Project that supported part of this research.

– ref. 19-million-year-old fossil jaw bone hints the biggest whales first evolved somewhere unexpected – https://theconversation.com/19-million-year-old-fossil-jaw-bone-hints-the-biggest-whales-first-evolved-somewhere-unexpected-219961

What happens to your vagina as you age?

By The Conversation -

December 20, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Louie Ye, Clinical Fellow, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, The University of Melbourne

The vagina is an internal organ with a complex ecosystem, influenced by circulating hormone levels which change during the menstrual cycle, pregnancy, breastfeeding and menopause.

Around and after menopause, there are normal changes in the growth and function of vaginal cells, as well as the vagina’s microbiome (groups of bacteria living in the vagina). Many women won’t notice these changes. They don’t usually cause symptoms or concern, but if they do, symptoms can usually be managed.

Here’s what happens to your vagina as you age, whether you notice or not.

Let’s clear up the terminology

We’re focusing on the vagina, the muscular tube that goes from the external genitalia (the vulva), past the cervix, to the womb (uterus). Sometimes the word “vagina” is used to include the external genitalia. However, these are different organs and play different roles in women’s health.

Diagram of female reproductive system including the vagina — We’re talking about the internal organ, the vagina.
Suwin66/Shutterstock

What happens to the vagina as you age?

Like many other organs in the body, the vagina is sensitive to female sex steroid hormones (hormones) that change around puberty, pregnancy and menopause.

Menopause is associated with a drop in circulating oestrogen concentrations and the hormone progesterone is no longer produced. The changes in hormones affect the vagina and its ecosystem. Effects may include:

less vaginal secretions, potentially leading to dryness
less growth of vagina surface cells resulting in a thinned lining
alteration to the support structure (connective tissue) around the vagina leading to less elasticity and more narrowing
fewer blood vessels around the vagina, which may explain less blood flow after menopause
a shift in the type and balance of bacteria, which can change vaginal acidity, from more acidic to more alkaline.

What symptoms can I expect?

Many women do not notice any bothersome vaginal changes as they age. There’s also little evidence many of these changes cause vaginal symptoms. For example, there is no direct evidence these changes cause vaginal infection or bleeding in menopausal women.

Some women notice vaginal dryness after menopause, which may be linked to less vaginal secretions. This may lead to pain and discomfort during sex. But it’s not clear how much of this dryness is due to menopause, as younger women also commonly report it. In one study, 47% of sexually active postmenopausal women reported vaginal dryness, as did around 20% of premenopausal women.

Two cut grapefruit, one drier than the other — Vaginal dryness is common but it can also affect younger women.
ECOSY/Shutterstock

Other organs close to the vagina, such as the bladder and urethra, are also affected by the change in hormone levels after menopause. Some women experience recurrent urinary tract infections, which may cause pain (including pain to the side of the body) and irritation. So their symptoms are in fact not coming from the vagina itself but relate to changes in the urinary tract.

Not everyone has the same experience

Women vary in whether they notice vaginal changes and whether they are bothered by these to the same extent. For example, women with vaginal dryness who are not sexually active may not notice the change in vaginal secretions after menopause. However, some women notice severe dryness that affects their daily function and activities.

In fact, researchers globally are taking more notice of women’s experiences of menopause to inform future research. This includes prioritising symptoms that matter to women the most, such as vaginal dryness, discomfort, irritation and pain during sex.

If symptoms bother you

Symptoms such as dryness, irritation, or pain during sex can usually be effectively managed. Lubricants may reduce pain during sex. Vaginal moisturisers may reduce dryness. Both are available over-the-counter at your local pharmacy.

While there are many small clinical trials of individual products, these studies lack the power to demonstrate if they are really effective in improving vaginal symptoms.

In contrast, there is robust evidence that vaginal oestrogen is effective in treating vaginal dryness and reducing pain during sex. It also reduces your chance of recurrent urinary tract infections. You can talk to your doctor about a prescription.

Vaginal oestrogen is usually inserted using an applicator, two to three times a week. Very little is absorbed into the blood stream, it is generally safe but longer-term trials are required to confirm safety in long-term use beyond a year.

Women with a history of breast cancer should see their oncologist to discuss using oestrogen as it may not be suitable for them.

Are there other treatments?

New treatments for vaginal dryness are under investigation. One avenue relates to our growing understanding of how the vaginal microbiome adapts and modifies around changes in circulating and local concentrations of hormones.

For example, a small number of reports show that combining vaginal probiotics with low-dose vaginal oestrogen can improve vaginal symptoms. But more evidence is needed before this is recommended.

Where to from here?

The normal ageing process, as well as menopause, both affect the vagina as we age.

Most women do not have troublesome vaginal symptoms during and after menopause, but for some, these may cause discomfort or distress.

While hormonal treatments such as vaginal oestrogen are available, there is a pressing need for more non-hormonal treatments.

Dr Sianan Healy, from Women’s Health Victoria, contributed to this article.

Martha Hickey previously received research funding for a study of an ultrasound device for vaginal dryness (Madorra)

Louie Ye does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What happens to your vagina as you age? – https://theconversation.com/what-happens-to-your-vagina-as-you-age-212198

Same-sex couples divide household chores more fairly – here’s what they told us works best

By The Conversation -

December 20, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alice Beban, Senior Lecturer in Sociology, Massey University

Who does which household chores – or who does the most – is a perennial source of tension for many couples. From cleaning the toilet to taking out the trash, it’s sometimes the little things that can cause the biggest trouble.

Not without reason, either. Research shows women still do the bulk of the housework and caregiving in most heterosexual couples. And this unequal labour can lead to burnout, health problems and financial stress.

We also know same-sex couples often have a far more equitable division of labour than heterosexual couples. But it’s not clear how same-sex couples manage to achieve this fairer split of household chores.

Our recent research aimed to shed some light on this. We surveyed same-sex couples in Aotearoa New Zealand and Australia, and identified three key factors that enabled them to share the chores in ways they both feel is fair.

The couples in our study focused on achieving a sense of fairness and equality over time, rather than a strict 50-50 split. They all had different patterns of dividing tasks. However, they shared some common strategies that offer valuable lessons for any couple, regardless of gender or sexual orientation.

1. Keep changing things up

We know that when couples negotiate roles based on their individual availability and what they like doing – or what they least despise – it contributes to a sense of fairness and satisfaction.

Same-sex couples we interviewed embraced flexibility when it comes to dividing housework. They negotiated chores based on their specific needs, preferences and availability. Flexibility is key – if the person who usually takes the children to swimming lessons has a lot on at work, the other partner would step in.

Beyond the day-to-day, same-sex couples often play the long game, balancing unpaid labour with each other’s career progression. Some couples in our study planned their working and family lives so both partners could progress at work by taking turns as the main caregiver when their children were born.

Others recognised that task specialisation – such as one person always doing the taxes, and the other always cooking – could lead to dependence and rigidity. So they consciously practised task sharing to avoid this.

2. Communicate

Couples who engage in honest conversations about their labour responsibilities tend to view their household division as fair. On the flip side, negative communication – aggression, avoidance or criticism – fosters a sense of unfairness.

In our research, effective and open communication was key to achieving an equitable division of unpaid labour. But these conversations weren’t always easy.

Couples who felt guilty about not doing enough around the house, or frustration with their partner for not pulling their weight, found simple conversations could become emotionally intense.

We all have different standards of cleanliness, gender socialisation and family background that shape how we approach housework. And this can also make it difficult to understand a partner’s perspective or expectations.

Couples in our survey navigated disagreements through candid conversations, transforming conflict into opportunities for greater mutual understanding and agreement.

It’s not just about talking, but also about regular “check-ins” to see how each person is feeling about the labour load, and renegotiating things when household circumstances or feelings change.

3. Remember unpaid labour is valuable

Housework is often devalued when compared with paid work. Previous research has shown how undervaluing housework diminishes the quality of relationships.

Same-sex couples in our research sought to revalue unpaid labour by assigning it equal worth to paid labour. As one person said:

The domestic tasks, we might not enjoy them, but we both value them equally. We both think they are important.

Some couples actively acknowledged and appreciated difficult and time-consuming tasks, such as their partner cleaning the bathroom. Participants also found value in unpaid labour beyond the chores themselves, viewing them as acts of love, and found joy in small tasks.

One couple even turned household chores into a game, writing tasks on slips of paper and randomly selecting them from a bag – including enjoyable activities like walks or coffee breaks as rewards.

This not only lightens the mood but is also a strategy for involving children with less fuss.

4. Do a stocktake of the unpaid load

We often fall into patterns of domestic labour without realising it. In our study, we found completing simple time-use surveys and discussing them can illuminate disparities in responsibilities.

Why not try it yourself? List down the household tasks done last week, including physical chores (like shopping or cleaning), emotional tasks (caring for children or pets), and mental tasks (planning meals, managing finances).

Estimate the time both you and your partner spent on each task. Then, have a heart-to-heart about who is doing what, how you both feel about it, and how it can be fairer.

Lessons for all couples

Adapting these strategies in heterosexual relationships isn’t easy. Deep-seated gender norms and societal expectations about the feminine “homemaker” and masculine “breadwinner” can be tough to shake.

And same-sex couples are more likely to both be working part-time rather than having one partner at home and one working.

But that’s the challenge – to redefine and negotiate labour in a way that works for your unique relationship. Start by tossing out the old gender scripts about who should do what. Next, open a dialogue about chores.

Flexibility, communication and revaluing unpaid labour are strategies available to everyone.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Same-sex couples divide household chores more fairly – here’s what they told us works best – https://theconversation.com/same-sex-couples-divide-household-chores-more-fairly-heres-what-they-told-us-works-best-219477

Biden’s burden: four percentage points, a struggling economy and a fragile democracy

By The Conversation -

December 20, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emma Shortis, Adjunct Senior Fellow, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT University

In the United States, one of the men vying for the presidency faces 91 criminal charges in four concurrent criminal cases. He uses openly fascist language, and has mused about “terminating” the Constitution. Just last week, he said that should he win the election, he would be a “dictator” for day one of his presidency (but not after that).

He currently sits four percentage points ahead of the incumbent president.

Last week, a Wall Street Journal poll of 1,500 US voters found that, in a hypothetical head-to-head, Democratic President Joe Biden would attract 43% of votes compared to presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump’s 47%. When five independent candidates were added to the mix, Biden’s projected vote dropped to 31%, compared to Trump’s 37%. The same poll measured Biden’s current approval rating at 37%.

In a country that prides itself on being the “oldest democracy in the world,” how is it possible that an explicit anti-democrat is outpolling the democratically elected president? Why is Biden so unpopular?

There are some obvious, immediate answers to this question. While not many of the truisms of the 1990s retain their relevance, Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign dictum that “it’s the economy, stupid” retains a lot of explanatory power.

While the big indicators of economic recovery and success are tracking reasonably well in the United States – gross domestic product is up, inflation is down, and unemployment is at its lowest level since 1969 – these numbers just don’t line up with Americans’ material experiences.

That’s why the Biden administration is scrambling to sell the positive message of “Bidenomics”. They are struggling to sell that message at least in part because while those policies, such as Biden’s signature Inflation Reduction Act, are having an impact, they haven’t been enough to reduce rampant inequality.

These perceptions – real and imagined – of an economy that doesn’t work for the majority of Americans are colliding with other crises in the United States that, sometimes fairly and sometimes not, are being laid at the feet of the president.

There is the ongoing trauma of a pandemic that killed over one million Americans; of gun violence; and of deaths of despair. And for young people especially, there is the sense of betrayal that a president who promised to be a generational bridge has not lifted young people up, has not done enough on climate, and proudly proclaims his Zionism in the face of unspeakable horror being perpetrated in Gaza by the right-wing Israeli government.

In what we might unsatisfactorily call a “normal” election cycle, this polycrisis would be enough of an explanation for recent polling.

But the possibility that an openly authoritarian candidate might win the highest office in the world’s most powerful democracy, even if it is an imperfect one, is not “normal”. Given the stakes of this election, there has to be more at play.

Polling consistently shows that Americans are deeply worried about the state of their democracy. At the end of 2022, for example, an NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist poll found that a vast majority of Americans – eight in ten people – see American democracy as under threat.

Experts agree that they are right to understand the 2024 presidential election in these terms. American democracy has always been fragile, and it is now at as dangerous a point as at any other moment in its history.

It is these long threads of American history that connect to the present. For many, if not all, of his supporters, Trump’s seemingly untouchable popularity comes because, not in spite of, his particularly American brand of anti-democratic white supremacy.

Understanding Trump’s popularity with these voters means confronting what Fintan O’Toole has described as the “unresolved contradictions of American history”. By that he means the legacy of slavery, the Civil War, the undoing of Reconstruction, and the unfinished business of the Civil Rights movement.

Trump is popular precisely because he sits at the intersection of American history – the mutually reinforcing trends of white supremacy, exceptionalism and conspiracy.

At his strongest, Biden understands and acknowledges this. Biden speaks clearly and consistently of the threat Trumpism poses to American democracy. Twice in recent history, in the 2020 presidential elections and the 2022 midterms, voters have agreed with him.

When it comes down to it, those voters may well agree with him once more. We can say with reasonable certainty that Biden’s “disaffected Democrats” won’t turn out for Trump. And we know from experience that polls are incomplete snapshots of intention and sometimes fail to capture other motivating factors.

The real risk is that this time around, Biden’s message of threat mitigation will not be enough. As the United States’ immediate polycrisis collides with its old one, Biden’s tendency to fall back into old tropes of American exceptionalism has started to ring hollow, and only reinforces existing perceptions that, at 81, he is too old to run again.

As he seeks out a second term, the president’s apparent inability to articulate a coherent alternate vision for the future of his country may well be critical.

While those four percentage points might not seem like much, and will likely keep moving until November, they’re representative of a very big problem for the future of American democracy.

Emma Shortis is Senior Researcher in International and Security Affairs at The Australia Institute.

– ref. Biden’s burden: four percentage points, a struggling economy and a fragile democracy – https://theconversation.com/bidens-burden-four-percentage-points-a-struggling-economy-and-a-fragile-democracy-219496

What’s the difference between physical and chemical sunscreens? And which one should you choose?

By The Conversation -

December 20, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yousuf Mohammed, Dermatology researcher, The University of Queensland

Sun exposure can accelerate ageing, cause skin burns, erythema (a skin reaction), skin cancer, melasmas (or sun spots) and other forms of hyperpigmentation – all triggered by solar ultraviolet radiation.

Approximately 80% of skin cancer cases in people engaged in outdoor activities are preventable by decreasing sun exposure. This can be done in lots of ways including wearing protective clothing or sunscreens.

But not all sunscreens work in the same way. You might have heard of “physical” and “chemical” sunscreens. What’s the difference and which one is right for you?

How sunscreens are classified

Sunscreens are grouped by their use of active inorganic and organic ultraviolet (UV) filters. Chemical sunscreens use organic filters such as cinnamates (chemically related to cinnamon oil) and benzophenones. Physical sunscreens (sometimes called mineral sunscreens) use inorganic filters such as titanium and zinc oxide.

These filters prevent the effects of UV radiation on the skin.

Organic UV filters are known as chemical filters because the molecules in them change to stop UV radiation reaching the skin. Inorganic UV filters are known as physical filters, because they work through physical means, such as blocking, scattering and reflection of UV radiation to prevent skin damage.

Nano versus micro

The effectiveness of the filters in physical sunscreen depends on factors including the size of the particle, how it’s mixed into the cream or lotion, the amount used and the refraction index (the speed light travels through a substance) of each filter.

When the particle size in physical sunscreens is large, it causes the light to be scattered and reflected more. That means physical sunscreens can be more obvious on the skin, which can reduce their cosmetic appeal.

Nanoparticulate forms of physical sunscreens (with tiny particles smaller than 100 nanometers) can improve the cosmetic appearance of creams on the skin and UV protection, because the particles in this size range absorb more radiation than they reflect. These are sometimes labelled as “invisible” zinc or mineral formulations and are considered safe.

Man puts zinc cream across nose — Physical sunscreens may be more obvious on the skin.
Shutterstock

So how do chemical sunscreens work?

Chemical UV filters work by absorbing high-energy UV rays. This leads to the filter molecules interacting with sunlight and changing chemically.

When molecules return to their ground (or lower energy) state, they release energy as heat, distributed all over the skin. This may lead to uncomfortable reactions for people with skin sensitivity.

Generally, UV filters are meant to stay on the epidermis (the first skin layer) surface to protect it from UV radiation. When they enter into the dermis (the connective tissue layer) and bloodstream, this can lead to skin sensitivity and increase the risk of toxicity. The safety profile of chemical UV filters may depend on whether their small molecular size allows them to penetrate the skin.

Chemical sunscreens, compared to physical ones, cause more adverse reactions in the skin because of chemical changes in their molecules. In addition, some chemical filters, such as dibenzoylmethane tend to break down after UV exposure. These degraded products can no longer protect the skin against UV and, if they penetrate the skin, can cause cell damage.

Due to their stability – that is, how well they retain product integrity and effectiveness when exposed to sunlight – physical sunscreens may be more suitable for children and people with skin allergies.

Although sunscreen filter ingredients can rarely cause true allergic dermatitis, patients with photodermatoses (where the skin reacts to light) and eczema have higher risk and should take care and seek advice.

woman compares sunscreen labels in pharmacy — With lots of sunscreens on offer, it can be hard to decide which type is right for you.
Shutterstock

What to look for

The best way to check if you’ll have a reaction to a physical or chemical sunscreen is to patch test it on a small area of skin.

And the best sunscreen to choose is one that provides broad-spectrum protection, is water and sweat-resistant, has a high sun protection factor (SPF), is easy to apply and has a low allergy risk.

Health authorities recommend sunscreen to prevent sun damage and cancer. Chemical sunscreens have the potential to penetrate the skin and may cause irritation for some people. Physical sunscreens are considered safe and effective and nanoparticulate formulations can increase their appeal and ease of use.

Yousuf Mohammed receives funding from U.S FDA grants. This article reflects the views of the author and should not be construed to represent views or policies.

Khanh Phan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What’s the difference between physical and chemical sunscreens? And which one should you choose? – https://theconversation.com/whats-the-difference-between-physical-and-chemical-sunscreens-and-which-one-should-you-choose-217097

From COVID to climate: Queensland’s new emissions pledge shows state governments are once again leading change

By The Conversation -

December 20, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland

A striking development in recent years has been the increasing role of state governments in responding to global crises.

The announcement by newly installed Queensland Premier Steven Miles of an ambitious 75% by 2035 emissions cut target is a case in point.

The renewed centrality of state governments became dramatically evident as the COVID pandemic unfolded, where the states responded strongly while the Commonwealth often seemed paralysed.

But it is also true of the response to climate change, where successive national governments have been unable or unwilling to take serious action. The only notable exception – the 2012 carbon price under the Gillard minority government – was extracted by the Greens in return for their support.

Does it matter who does the work? Yes. State efforts can take us a long way towards cutting emissions. But we need federal policies on nationwide issues such as electrifying transport.

How did we get here?

Several decades of neoliberal reform and the mantra of new public management – bringing business-style competition to the public service – have hollowed out the capacity of the national government to do anything directly. Instead, they have to rely on contractors and consultants, limiting any real federal capacity for decisive policy action.

By contrast, hollowing out has been much more muted at state level, where the need to provide schools, hospitals, police and other services have kept governments closer to the actual business of policy delivery.

This pattern of Commonwealth inertia and state activism goes back as far as the 2008 Garnaut Review of Climate Change, commissioned by state governments in response to the Howard Coalition government’s unwillingness to act.

The Labor government took over support for the review after the 2007 election, but the Rudd Government was unable to secure bipartisan support for climate policies.

When the Coalition was back in office from 2013 to 2022, climate denialists in their ranks sought to do the minimum possible without openly rejecting global efforts to stabilise the climate.

By 2022 it was clear Australia would easily exceed our Paris Agreement commitment of a 26% reduction on 2005 emissions through land use change and the rise of renewables. Even so, the power of the denialists was such that the government’s backbench would not consent to an official increase in the target.

As a result, the new Albanese government could commit to a substantially higher target of 43% without any significant policy effort.

Instead of the carbon price Opposition Leader Bill Shorten had promised in 2019, Albanese offered an upgrade to the Safeguard Mechanism, introduced by the Coalition. Energy and Climate Minister Chris Bowen has ruled out modest steps such as ending the sale of internal-combustion engine cars by 2040.

Almost all states and territories now have 2030 emission cut goals more ambitious than the national 43% target:

New South Wales: 50%
Victoria: 50%
South Australia: at least 50%
Western Australia: 80% below 2020 levels
Australian Capital Territory: 65–75% below 1990 levels
Tasmania: achieved net zero in 2015.

Until last week, Queensland was the odd state out, with a 2030 target reduction of only 30% relative to 2005. The new goal – 75% by 2035 – moves Queensland from the back of the pack almost to the front.

Can Queensland really move so quickly?

The first step towards achieving this goal was largely symbolic: the knockback of a new coal-fired power station proposed by mining magnate Clive Palmer. The proposal was almost certainly unviable, as it assumed the use of economically questionable carbon capture and storage technology.

The easiest option is to accelerate the transition away from existing coal power plants. In Queensland, it’s made easier because coal generators are owned by the state.

To achieve a 75% reduction target, the government’s clean energy agency, CleanCo, will have to be expanded substantially, and coal power put out to pasture faster than already planned.

If the state fully greens its power sector, that would remove 45% of the state’s emissions.

There are harder emissions to cut. It will need policies encouraging heavy industry to shift towards carbon-free energy sources such as electricity and hydrogen derived from wind and solar energy. The necessary technologies exist for industries such as steelmaking and cement, but have yet to be fully developed.

But the really hard challenge will be when new coal mines and gas fracking projects are proposed.

When buyers burn fossil fuels exported from Queensland, these emissions don’t count towards the state’s targets. But what does count are fugitive emissions of highly potent methane, which have been systematically underestimated. Using satellites, the International Energy Agency has estimated Australia’s methane emissions from coal mines to be 81% higher than official estimates, and 92% higher than official estimates of emissions from fracking and oil extraction.

Even by Queensland’s own conservative estimates, these emissions accounted for 11% of the entire state’s total in 2018.

Miles has promised new fossil fuel projects will be assessed on a case-by-case basis.

What do we need the Commonwealth for?

State ambition will take us a fair distance, but not the whole way. On electrification of transport, states will need the Commonwealth government to lead since vehicle standards are set nationally.

Queensland’s fresh ambition puts us in the paradoxical situation where all of Australia’s states are committed to doing more than the Commonwealth. That is, in part, because states are able to do more.

But with the next federal election less than two years away, a slump in the polls and a very thin record of policy achievements, we may yet see the Albanese government leave behind its timidity and take braver action.

John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority

– ref. From COVID to climate: Queensland’s new emissions pledge shows state governments are once again leading change – https://theconversation.com/from-covid-to-climate-queenslands-new-emissions-pledge-shows-state-governments-are-once-again-leading-change-220040

8 tips to navigate Christmas if you have a fussy eater or child with allergies

By The Conversation -

December 20, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stella Boyd-Ford, Research Fellow with the Grow&Go Toolbox, The University of Queensland

Food-focused celebrations like Christmas can be very stressful for parents with children who can’t eat just everything. Perhaps they are selective eaters or have allergies and intolerances.

On top of making sure their children get enough to eat and don’t eat anything they shouldn’t, family reactions and judgement can be overwhelming.

However, parents can navigate these situations and foster healthy eating habits with a few strategies.

1. Set expectations early

Gently discuss your child’s needs with the celebration host beforehand.

This helps friends and family understand what is helpful and unhelpful when supporting your child’s eating.

Setting boundaries around conversations about your child’s eating habits can be beneficial. For example, you can ask people not to comment on how much or little your child eats. Most people appreciate the heads up and are willing to accommodate.

2. Have a plan B

If Christmas lunch is going to be overwhelming, or you can’t ensure the food served will be something your child can eat, it might be easier to feed your child beforehand.

This allows you to relax and join the celebrations without worrying about your child going hungry. Alternatively, you can bring along a selection of foods for your child to ensure they can participate in the mealtime, without the pressure of trying new foods or having limited options.

Including some familiar foods in the spread ensures that there’s something on the table your child is comfortable with.

A family, including a small child, seated around a Christmas table, decorated with candles and fairy lights. — You can bring you own food for your child, or discuss their needs with the host before the celebration.
Nicole Michalou/ Pexels, CC BY

3. Minimise anxiety

Holidays can be a time of increased anxiety, especially for selective eaters. Kids may find it challenging to cope with changes in routine and the excitement of the day.

Try and minimise changes to normal routines where you can, and make sure you and your child get some down time between activities. When children are anxious, they are less likely to want to eat.

4. Focus on togetherness

Reduce the food focus by emphasising the importance of connection and togetherness during mealtimes. This helps creates a relaxed environment, which helps your child associate mealtimes with positive emotions rather than pressure to eat.

It might help to have some talking points such as Christmas cracker jokes, highlights of the of the year, or what we are most looking forward to in the new year (rather than just talking about the food).

5. What are other guests doing?

The presence of other people can change a behaviour, this is what reseachers call “social facilitation”. We see this when children are more adventurous when eating with their peers at school or daycare compared to at home.

Festive events offer opportunities for children to observe others enjoying a variety of foods.

6. Lots of things to try

Despite concerns, festive occasions often provide incidental, low-pressure situations for children to explore new foods.

Use this time to encourage them to see, touch, smell and taste various treats. This can foster food acceptance at their own pace.

7. Give children food-related jobs

Research suggests being involved in food preparation can increase eating enjoyment and reduce picky eating.

So ask your kids to help with simple food preparation, serving food, clearing away plates and mixing ingredients. This allows your child to have sensory exposure and be part of the experience, with no expectation they must eat the food.

A mother and child roll dough to make Christmas cookies. — Get your child involved in food preparations to help ease picky eating.
Any Lane/Pexels, CC BY

8. Be vigilant about allergens

It’s okay to be vigilant about checking labels for any ingredients that might cause a reaction in your child. Ask family members to label foods that contain potential allergens, especially if you have older children serving themselves.

Remember to be careful with buffet-style meals as the risk of cross-contamination is higher as serving utensils could be moved between dishes.

Everyone deserves to enjoy the holidays, including parents and children. So don’t hesitate to do what you need to ensure your and your child’s wellbeing.

You can find more information for managing a picky eater at the Grow & Go Toolbox.

Stella Boyd-Ford receives funding from the Australian Department of Health and Aged Care through a Preventative Health Grant

Clare Dix receives funding from the Australian Department of Health and Aged Care through a Preventative Health Grant

– ref. 8 tips to navigate Christmas if you have a fussy eater or child with allergies – https://theconversation.com/8-tips-to-navigate-christmas-if-you-have-a-fussy-eater-or-child-with-allergies-219118

Interest rates will eventually fall but it’s a bit early for mortgagees to break out the champagne

By The Conversation -

December 20, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra

Suddenly the talk in global financial markets has spun from “when will interest rates next rise?” to “how soon before they fall?”.

Some commentators are flagging the shift as a “pivot party”.

Even so, financial markets in Australia are also now implying interest rates will fall over the course of next year.

The latest indicators

The news from the labour market was mixed. There was a solid rise in employment in November. The hours worked data, however, have been basically flat for the past six months.

The government maintained fiscal discipline in the mid-year budget update released last week. They saved rather than spent almost all the extra revenue from higher than expected commodity prices.

The minutes of the Reserve’s latest meeting on December 5 show the board noted “encouraging signs of progress” in returning inflation to the target.

Subsequent events have suggested inflation will likely continue on its downward trajectory, which means the Reserve has increased interest rates enough.

So what will the Reserve Bank do?

The impact of (eventual) lower interest rates

A household with the average loan size of around A$600,000 would have seen their monthly repayments rise by almost $1,700 since early 2022. This would drop by $100 if rates were cut by 0.25%.

While the impact on mortgagees always gets the most attention, interest rates affect other members of the community too.

A lot of people are therefore looking forward to an interest rate cut. But they should not be holding their breath.

John Hawkins is a former senior economist at the Reserve Bank and has worked as an economic forecaster at the Bank for International Settlements and the Australian Treasury.

– ref. Interest rates will eventually fall but it’s a bit early for mortgagees to break out the champagne – https://theconversation.com/interest-rates-will-eventually-fall-but-its-a-bit-early-for-mortgagees-to-break-out-the-champagne-220038

I’m a photographer who wanted to be more present in my life – so I put down the camera

By The Conversation -

December 20, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cherine Fahd, Associate Professor Visual Communication, University of Technology Sydney

At a recent electronic music performance, the English duo Rob Brown and Sean Booth, who perform as Autechre, plunged Sydney’s City Recital Hall into darkness.

Prior to the performance, I was made aware through the ticket information that the set would be played in the dark. This information made me eager to shut my eyes and completely immerse myself in a pure auditory experience.

However, I wasn’t prepared for the absence of the usual photographic opportunities that come with such events.

Capturing cultural events through smartphone snapshots has become almost instinctive. It’s a common sight to witness thousands of people with raised arms, recording performances for sharing on social media.

The phrase “pics or it didn’t happen” reflects the need to validate an experience by photographing it to share. Yet, in the context of the Autechre concert, this rule couldn’t be applied.

Like everyone else, I refrained from raising my phone to capture the performance, the stage or the light show simply because there were none. Not even the musicians were visible! Only the faint green glow of the emergency exit signs illuminated the recital hall.

Autechre offered not only an auditory feast but also respite from having yet another experience mediated through my phone. My need to photograph everything was thwarted for an hour of sonic bliss.

Photography detox

This departure from a vision-centric sensory experience was compelling. We are often absorbed in our screens and, if we aren’t, we are witnessing others engrossed in theirs.

This concert created a different communal presence. As I focused on my own auditory journey, I also attuned to the people around me. In the absence of smartphone distraction I wondered whether they felt a deep relief to have nothing to photograph.

The Autechre experience wasn’t like going to the movies, where phones are silenced and we swap the small screen of our smartphones with the big screen of cinema. There was no screen, no image – only sound.

I’m reminded of a period earlier this year when I decided to detox from photographing. The detox lasted two months. My aim was to get off my phone and be more present in my life.

Exit sign — Only the faint green glow of the emergency exit signs illuminated the recital hall.
Kent Banes/Unsplash

A so-called photographer by profession, it was a challenging endeavour. But then again, we are all photographers today. I imagine it would be challenging for anyone, given how photographing as an act is deeply embedded in daily life and communication with others.

During the detox I observed how the absence of photographing affected me. It led me to quickly explore other forms of creative expression, such as writing lists and jotting down experiences in words. It was a valuable experience, replacing one artistic outlet with another.

The photography detox also shed light on the social aspects of photographing. As someone who actively shares photos on Instagram and sends daily pictures to my friends, I understood that not having new photos to share affected my sociability. I became quiet and withdrawn.

With my gregarious family humming with photo exchanges on WhatsApp, I found myself responding with emojis rather than photographic images. The detox revealed how I use photography to speak to others; how vital photographing is to expressing my personality.

It wasn’t just about photographing to remember; it was an impulse – a reflex triggered by excitement, anxiety, boredom or a need to connect.

I felt the same twitch to reach for my phone throughout the Autechre concert.

Completely unphotographable

The late French philosopher Jean-Luc Nancy explored how listening turns us inward, while sight directs us outward. In his 2007 essay Listening Nancy asks:

Why, in the case of the ear, is there withdrawal and turning inward, a making resonant, but, in the case of the eye, there is manifestation and display, making evident?

This question resonates deeply with the concert experience. Autechre provided a forced blackout and an hour to listen without the burden of having to “evidence” myself listening.

The lack of photo ops reminds me of Daniel Libeskind’s architectural provocation Voided Void, or Holocaust Tower, in Berlin’s Jewish Museum. Visitors enter the tower in small groups, and the irregularly shaped claustrophobic space is closed off by a heavy door. Once inside, we were left in complete darkness, with only a sliver of light filtering in from the ceiling.

In this concrete chamber, every sound was magnified, my heart beat louder and faster, the sound of my shoes on the floor echoed I was alive. My camera was useless.

The Autechre concert encapsulated what the controlled absence of photography and visual stimulus affords. I found myself immersed in complex sounds and literally feeling the physical vibrations of the bass.

With nothing to see with my eyes, I had nothing to photograph. The experience was akin to deep meditation. This made me realise that, despite the lack of sociability experienced during my photo detox, taking photos rarely takes me inward.

I also admit that I was among those who frantically photographed the previous act and the stage manager who stood under a photogenic light when instructing us to go to the bathroom before Autechre’s piece.

I also saw people photographing the concert poster near the box office. How else were they to evidence where they’d been and what they’d seen? In the arts, creating visual content that is photogenic and Instagrammable is the norm.

Autechre were radical in creating an artwork that was totally ephemeral and completely unphotographable.

Cherine Fahd does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. I’m a photographer who wanted to be more present in my life – so I put down the camera – https://theconversation.com/im-a-photographer-who-wanted-to-be-more-present-in-my-life-so-i-put-down-the-camera-212534

Keith Rankin Analysis – The Shipping News: Lyttelton versus Picton, and other stories

By Keith Rankin -

December 19, 2023

20201212_KeithRankin — Keith Rankin, trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.

Analysis by Keith Rankin.

Keith Rankin, trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.

Last week the new government effectively cancelled the plans of Kiwi Rail – in the form of ‘The Interislander’ – derailing its intended Picton rail and road expansion. The plans were judged to be too costly; in particular, the rate of cost escalation was deemed unacceptable.

The bigger picture is the need to balance acquisition costs and benefits against subsequent operational costs and benefits. Spending more upfront can mean much lower costs in the long run.

We can look to the past for guidance. Before the 1960s, the principal shipping route between New Zealand’s North and South Islands was between Wellington and Christchurch; more specifically between Wellington and the port town of Lyttelton.

The development of the Wellington to Picton route for a rail ferry was made possible by the completion of the Christchurch to Picton rail line in 1945. That was a borderline rail decades-long project which might never have been completed at all. The second impetus towards the improvement of the Picton route was the diminishing state of the then-existing Union Steam Ship ferry service to Picton, and its inability to service the rapidly increasing demand for road vehicle carriage to Nelson, Marlborough, and Westland. Then, by the 1970s, people wanting quick access to Christchurch were flying, and renting cars. Further, with the loss of the Wahine in 1968, the convenience of the Lyttelton ferry service waned substantially. The Wahine’s replacement – the Rangatira – was a great ship but it had a backward-looking economic profile. And it was not owned by New Zealand Rail, as Kiwi Rail was then. New Zealand Rail in 1970 had too much sunk investment in Picton. It is now, in the 2020s, that that investment has substantially depreciated.

In November 2016 the Picton service was severely compromised by the Kaikoura Earthquake. Massive fixes were required to both the rail and road routes from Picton to Christchurch. 2017 was an obvious time to look at rekindling the Lyttelton ferry service, but for some inexplicable reason there was no discussion of that option. The Interisland rail service was curtailed, and the increased car and truck traffic had to take an alpine route, over Lewis Pass. Subsequently, in 2022, road access to Nelson – and to the Lewis Pass – was knocked out by severe flooding and road subsidence. ‘Fortunately’, the rebuilt coastal route to Christchurch had been opened in time. Despite this new emergency, the word ‘Lyttleton’ was still not mentioned.

New Zealand means New Sealand. Early in 2023 there was a brief swell of interest in coastal shipping, following the wave of floods most affecting the North Island’s Tairawhiti (‘Eastland’). But again, once the one precarious road was eventually fixed, that emergency shipping service between Gisborne and Napier was immediately discontinued. It was an election year, and the political class was too obsessed with exploring the main political parties’ alleged ‘fiscal holes’ to contemplate some forward-looking climate-savvy inter-regional transport infrastructure.

Yet, for the latest episode of New Sealand’s saga of threadbare-shipping, too much attention has gone onto the proposed new ships, which really are too big for the Picton ‘scenic route’, and too little attention to the main cost, the replacement of port infrastructure.

So, here’s what I think. Divert the proposed port infrastructure from touristic Picton to the commercial deepwater port of Lyttleton. Build the two modern rail-road ferries, as planned, in South Korea. Require KiwiSaver to switch its principal rail-ferry operations to Lyttleton; allowing Picton to be serviced by smaller roll-on roll-off ferries, with rail-free Nelson the main centre to be serviced through Picton. This is the perfect opportunity to revive the Wellington-Christchurch ferry service.

We particularly note that the 2020s is the critical decade to deal with the matter of climate change, in this century of COPs. (Actually, the 2010s was that critical decade; but it’s been and gone!) Although modern ships use a fossil fuel, oil, shipping remains the most resilient and sustainable form of long-distance freight transport; and especially when the alternative is road-rail transport along a rugged seismically active coast.

Other Shipping News

The COP28 narrative, this year, boiled down to whether there should be a ‘phase-down’ of (ie ‘transition away from’) fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) or a ‘phase-out’ of such fuels. For the distinction to be meaningful, a phase-out means the eventual complete disuse of these fuels. Yet I heard nothing in the reporting of COP28 about what a complete disuse of fossil fuels would mean for the shipping industry. I found this rhetorical gap especially bemusing, in the light of the dependence of the small island nations on sea-freight; indeed these were some of the nation states most vociferous at COP28 in favour of ‘phase-out’.

Traditionally, sea travel – indeed oceanic sea travel – was sustainable, in the sense that it was driven by wind power. Some sailing ships, windjammers carrying freight, were still plying the Southern Ocean as recently as the mid-twentieth century. The Pamir’s final voyage on the great circle route, via Cape Horn, sailing under the New Zealand red ensign, was in 1949.

While it seems unlikely that wind-only shipping will again play a role in world shipping this century, I see no reason why hybrid shipping cannot be developed for certain routes, with the ‘great circle route’ via the Capes of Good Hope and Horn being an obvious such route. High-tech wind power can be allowed to make a contribution to a more sustainable goods’ carriage model. Yet, if such practical solutions are being discussed in COP circles, such chatter is not being picked up by the mainstream media.

What other alternatives fossil fuels can be used by ships? The only one that comes to my mind is nuclear power. In the absence of narratives around ships utilising wind power, a phasing out of fossil fuels in shipping can only mean a phasing in of nuclear power; a means of propulsion principally confined at present to military shipping. I am not convinced that Aotearoans would be partial to such a phase out of fossil fuels. (And we note that nuclear power can hardly be applicable to air transport, another industry for which a phase out of fossil fuels will be difficult.)

The Militarisation of the Indian Ocean

While militarised for some time now, the 2021 ‘Indo-Pacific’ ‘rules-based’ rhetoric of Biden and Blinken and Ardern, was a hint that the Indian Ocean was an escalating military region. AUKUS took this a step further in 2022. Now, in 2023, we see that there will be a large United States’ nuclear submarine base (ABC News, 18 Dec 2023) just south of Fremantle, in Western Australia.

And now, with actual conflict in the Red Sea, related to Israel’s present war, we are heading for an effective closure of the Suez Canal; previously closed between 1967 and 1975 due to the second and third wars between Israel and Egypt. (The first Israel-Egypt War in modern times was in 1956, when the first massacre of Khan Younis took place.) Neither military expansion nor the closure of major shipping routes are conducive to the reduction of the greenhouse gas emissions which are substantially causing climate change. Indeed ‘defence’ is probably both the least-green and least-productive sector of the global economy. Oil-powered oil-tankers are already having to get from the Persian Gulf to the North Atlantic Ocean via South Africa. (I wonder if we will ever see the ultimate shipping irony: nuclear-powered oil tankers!?)

Climate Change feedback ‘Arms Race’

It’s not only the Suez Canal which is compromised at present. The Panama rainforest is experiencing a drought, meaning that the undercapacity (at the best of times) Panama Canal is unable to access anything like the amounts of water that it needs to operate its locks. It means evermore traffic having to go around Cape Horn, at the tip of South America; though these canal troubles may help to precipitate energy saving on the wind-friendly great-circle route.

The woes of the Panama Canal are reflected more generally in that climate change is creating more demand for energy intensive climate control; air-conditioning for the heat and heating for the cold, climate extremes that are creating extra demands right now for coal to burn to generate electricity. This ‘arms race’ phenomenon is known as a positive feedback loop; the kind of positive feedback that is very adverse for the sustenance of Planet Earth in its present human-friendly. Indeed increased demand means the transition away from fossil fuels may end up being that fossil fuel use continues to stay much the same, despite increases in renewable and nuclear energisation.

Geoplanetary feedback loops can be quirky though. Just as the Panama Canal route faces contraction of service – as does the Picton route – two new opportunities are opening up as a result of global warming. The Northwest Passage, north of Canada, may soon be available to take the pressure off the Panama Canal (at least for a few months each year). And, especially for trade between China and Russia – an important factor in global emissions – the Arctic Northeast Passage may become similarly viable.

A nuclear Arctic, anyone? Maybe Canada or Russia will ban non-nuclear ships, for the sake of Planet E.

*******

Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.

Leah Purcell’s Is That You, Ruthie? is a powerful look at ‘dormitory girls’ separated from Country and family

By The Conversation -

December 19, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Cantrell, Senior Lecturer — Writing, Editing, Publishing, University of Southern Queensland

This article contains mentions of the Stolen Generations, and policies using outdated and potentially offensive terminology when referring to First Nations people.

Aunty Ruth Hegarty, or Ruthie, was four-and-a-half years old when she was forcibly removed from her mother, Ruby, under the auspices of Queensland’s Aboriginals Protection Act (1897).

The Act, as it was known, dispossessed thousands of Indigenous Australians of their heartlines and their homes by segregating them to government reserves that have been compared by past residents to concentration camps.

Is That You, Ruthie?, written and directed by Leah Purcell, one of Australia’s most important theatremakers, is an adaptation of Aunty Ruth’s memoir. It is a harrowing account of a mother and daughter’s attempt to repair their fractured relationship after being separated from their culture, their Country, and each other.

Giving stage to the dormo girls

Purcell’s bold new play remembers the Stolen Generations of Indigenous women and children who were interned for more than 70 years at Barambah station, later known as Cherbourg, 250 kilometres northwest of Brisbane.

The story of the self-called dormitory girls, or “dormo girls”, is the story of the irreparable damage caused by the sanctioned removal and control of First Nations families and the dormitory system’s cruel legacy of the separation of children from their mothers.

The play opens in 1930, in the grip of the Great Depression, when a young Ruby (Chenoa Deemal) arrives with her six-month-old daughter Ruthie at the Barambah mission – “just for a little while” – on the advice of the local police sergeant, who is also the ironically titled “Protector of Aboriginals”.

When she is four-and-a-half, Ruthie (Melodie Reynolds-Diarra) is separated from Ruby, and they spend the next 30 years trapped in parallel lives.

Following their separation, mother and daughter are housed in separate dorms. They can see each other, but are forbidden to touch or talk.

A woman dressed as a maid, near a white metal bed. — Mother and daughter are interned in dormitories on their arrival at Cherbourg.
Photo credit: Peter Wallis

In a narrative spiral that moves back and forward in time, the pair oscillate in and out of each other’s lives as their relationship becomes increasingly estranged.

Separately, they are trained and later hired as domestic servants to aid the expanding white settlement.

After years of exploitation as “domestics”, both are denied access to their wages in a form of multi-generational financial abuse that is now recognised as the Stolen Wages.

When mother and daughter finally reunite, they are forced to face the painful realisation that they are strangers. Their relationship, irreversibly severed, is never the same.

In the play’s final scene the actors step forward out of character to remind us this story is not a work of fiction – a necessary and important moment when Australia’s history is still often met with defensive denial and resistance.

Two hearts breaking

Purcell, a self-described “truth-teller”, has perfected the art of adaptation. She is perhaps best known for her interpretation of The Drover’s Wife, which she has adapted three times to the page, stage and screen.

In Ruthie, over the course of 90 minutes, she strips down Hegarty’s memoir to its powerful core: the story of two hearts breaking. But Purcell’s play, like its origin material, is also a story about the enduring and ineffable connections that bond women who share profound trauma and grief.

Building on the tradition of Ningali Lawford-Wolf’s Ningali (1994), Wesley Enoch and Deborah Mailman’s The Seven Stages of Grieving (1996), and Jane Harrison’s Stolen (1998), Purcell interjects genuine moments of humour in a work that highlights the fraught nature of forgiveness and the cultural significance of both resistance and resilience.

Production image: a woman stands on stage. — Purcell strips down Hegarty’s memoir to its powerful core.
Photo credit: Peter Wallis

The work interweaves traditional song and dance in a testament to the courage and resilience of the young girls who lost their mothers and in turn became sisters who, in their own words, simply looked after each other.

As Aunty Ruth reflects in her memoir:

Our lives were governed by the same policies, and what happened to one, happened to all of us. We were treated identically, dressed identically, our hair cut identically. We were dormitory girls.

Purcell and Hegarty share the same creative agenda: both women blend the personal with the political through autobiographical storytelling and the power of witnessing.

A collaborative creation

Importantly, in her newest work, Purcell preserves the protocols of Indigenous storytelling by using collaborative theatre to combine oral history with documentary techniques. Aunty Ruth, now 94, collaborated on the script and contributed to the creative process.

The projection of archival material from Aunty Ruth’s government file – visitation requests, travel permits, letters from the Superintendent – bridge the theatrical and historical worlds of the play, and unite the emotion of the dramatic retelling with the authority and authenticity of the archive.

At a post show discussion with Aunty Ruth, Purcell invoked the audience’s obligation to bear witness. “You cannot deny this woman her story,” she said, “because she’s sitting right here.”

In this way, the play’s title, Is That You, Ruthie?, is an important recognition of the past as much as it is a haunting inquisition that demands we listen.

Is That You, Ruthie? by Oombarra Productions played at QPAC, Brisbane. Season closed.

Kate Cantrell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Leah Purcell’s Is That You, Ruthie? is a powerful look at ‘dormitory girls’ separated from Country and family – https://theconversation.com/leah-purcells-is-that-you-ruthie-is-a-powerful-look-at-dormitory-girls-separated-from-country-and-family-219965

Northern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles has resigned. How did we get here?

By The Conversation -

December 19, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rolf Gerritsen, Professorial Research Fellow, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University

When it was announced this afternoon that the Northern Territory’s Chief Minister Natasha Fyles had resigned, few could say it was unexpected.

She has been under increasing pressure on several fronts, chief among them the failure to disclose shares she held, prompting accusations of having a conflict of interest.

In the role for around 18 months, Fyles’ Labor government has been in the spotlight for everything from increased crime rates in Alice Springs to the controversial decision to approve fracking in the Beetaloo Basin.

So what’s behind Fyles quitting the territory’s top job, and what’s next for the government?

A surprise ascent to leadership

Fyles was sworn in as chief minister in May 2022, following the resignation of Michael Gunner.

She won the leadership against expectations, despite being Gunner’s protege. The left faction, which has a majority of two in the party caucus, had backed Nicole Manison. But two members defected and voted for Fyles instead, securing her victory in the leadership ballot.

Fyles has been the member for Nightcliff since 2012 and held a range of important portfolios before her promotion, including health and Attorney-General.

Her leadership style has been not unlike most of the new generation of politicians: speaking in short, sharp sentences with authoritative confidence.

But she’s overseen some odd and sometimes unpopular decisions.

The $11 million Nightcliff Police Station was built in her electorate, despite being just a seven-minute drive from Casuarina station. Allegations of pork-barrelling were quick to follow, especially after reports emerged of the facility having half the staff promised.

There was also the matter of the Palmerston Hospital, which opened in 2018, when Fyles was health minister. It’s since been plagued by understaffing and underfunding.

Two key undoings

Smaller controversies aside, there have been two main pressure points for Fyles’ leadership.

The first is crime in remote communities, especially the much-publicised plight of Alice Springs.

While the issue is hardly unique to the city, the national interest generated by the removal and reinstatement of the alcohol bans shone a large and often unflattering light on crime rates across the Northern Territory.

The fact the federal government intervened to create the role of the Regional Controller – a role the Commonwealth funds and manages – shows how little confidence they had in the territory government.

The second, more recent problem is the revelations around Fyles’ potential conflicts of interest.

It was revealed earlier this week the chief owns shares in South32, a company that owns a manganese mine on Groote Eylandt. She hadn’t disclosed this, despite appearing to have owned them since 2015.

Locals have been lobbying for years for the mine to be tested for its potential impact on human health, but to no avail.

It wasn’t even the first instance in the past month of undisclosed shares coming to light. In November, Fyles divested her minor stake in gas company Woodside Energy.

But the final nail in the coffin came last week, when matters swirling around Fyles were referred to the territory’s corruption watchdog.

One of her senior political advisors, Gerard Richardson, co-owns a company that lobbied on behalf of mining company Tamboran – a company that has large stakes in multiple projects in the NT.

While she dug her heels in, the news went down like a lead balloon in the electorate, and likely in the party room too.

A salvagable government?

Politics in the Top End is a strange beast. Fyles stepping down as leader doesn’t necessarily mean she takes the government down with her.

The way politics plays out in the territory has long been down to the happiness or unhappiness of key interest groups.

With some electorates containing just 5,000 people or so, the blessing (or lack thereof) of recreational fishers or the police association, for example, can have a disproportionate affect.

So in choosing its next leader, the Labor party will be considering who appeals most to the most important groups.

That’s why the current Minister for Recreational Fisheries (among many other things), Joel Bowden, might be in with a shot. The former Richmond footballer might have the right appeal with those who are most electorally influential.

But the government will have to contend with an increase in environment-focused politics in the lead-up to the next election in 2024.

Conservationist issues have gathered momentum in the past few years and their potential impact should not be underestimated. Greens and conservationists appear to be gaining increasing Indigenous support.

The next leader will need to be agile enough to deal with these newer forces, but compelling enough to win the party a third term in government.

Rolf Gerritsen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Northern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles has resigned. How did we get here? – https://theconversation.com/northern-territory-chief-minister-natasha-fyles-has-resigned-how-did-we-get-here-220137

2023 was the year of generative AI. What can we expect in 2024?

By The Conversation -

December 19, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By T.J. Thomson, Senior Lecturer in Visual Communication & Digital Media, RMIT University

In 2023, artificial intelligence (AI) truly entered our daily lives. The latest data shows four in five teenagers in the United Kingdom are using generative AI tools. About two-thirds of Australian employees report using generative AI for work.

At first, many people used these tools because they were curious about generative AI or wanted to be entertained. Now, people ask generative AI for help with studies, for advice, or use it to find or synthesise information. Other uses include getting help coding and making images, videos, or audio.

So-called “prompt whisperers” or prompt engineers offer guides on not just designing the best AI prompts, but even how to blend different AI services to achieve fantastical outputs.

AI uses and functions have also shifted over the past 12 months as technological development, regulation and social factors have shaped what’s possible. Here’s where we’re at, and what might come in 2024.

AI changed how we work and pray

Generative AI made waves early in the year when it was used to enter and even win photography competitions, and tested for its ability to pass school exams.

ChatGPT, the chatbot that’s become a household name, reached a user base of 100 million by February – about four times the size of Australia’s population.

Some musicians used AI voice cloning to create synthetic music that sounds like popular artists, such as Eminem. Google launched its chatbot, Bard. Microsoft integrated AI into Bing search. Snapchat launched MyAI, a ChatGPT-powered tool that allows users to ask questions and receive suggestions.

GPT-4, the latest iteration of the AI that powers ChatGPT, launched in March. This release brought new features, such as analysing documents or longer pieces of text.

Also in March, corporate giants like Coca-Cola began generating ads partly through AI, while Levi’s said it would use AI for creating virtual models. The now-infamous image of the Pope wearing a white Balenciaga puffer jacket went viral. A cohort of tech evangelists also called for an AI development pause.

Amazon began integrating generative AI tools into its products and services in April. Meanwhile, Japan ruled there would be no no copyright restrictions for training generative AI in the country.

In the United States, screenwriters went on strike in May, demanding a ban of AI-generated scripts. Another AI-generated image, allegedly of the Pentagon on fire, went viral.

In July, worshippers experienced some of the first religious services led by AI.

In August, two months after AI-generated summaries became available in Zoom, the company faced intense scrutiny for changes to its terms of service around consumer data and AI. The company later clarified its policy and pledged not to use customers’ data without consent to train AI.

In September, voice and image functionalities came to ChatGPT for paid users. Adobe began integrating generative AI into its applications like Illustrator and Photoshop.

By December, we saw an increased shift to “Edge AI”, where AI processes are handled locally, on devices themselves, rather than in the cloud, which has benefits in contexts when privacy and security are paramount. Meanwhile, the EU announced the world’s first “AI Law”.

Where to from here?

Given the whirlwind of AI developments in the past 12 months, we’re likely to see more incremental changes in the next year and beyond.

In particular, we expect to see changes in these four areas.

Increased bundling of AI services and functions

ChatGTP was initially just a chatbot that could generate text. Now, it can generate text, images and audio. Google’s Bard can now interface among Gmail, Docs and Drive, and complete tasks across these services.

By bundling generative AI into existing services and combining functions, companies will try to maintain their market share and make AI services more intuitive, accessible and useful.

At the same time, bundled services make users more vulnerable when inevitable data breaches happen.

Higher quality, more realistic generations

Earlier this year, AI struggled with rendering human hands and limbs. By now, AI generators have markedly improved on these tasks.

At the same time, research has found how biased many AI generators can be.

Some developers have created models with diversity and inclusivity in mind. Companies will likely see a benefit in providing services that reflect the diversity of their customer bases.

Growing calls for transparency and media standards

Various news platforms have been slammed in 2023 for producing AI-generated content without transparently communicating this.

AI-generated images of world leaders and other newsworthy events abound on social media, with high potential to mislead and deceive.

Media industry standards that transparently and consistently denote when AI has been used to create or augment content will need to be developed to improve public trust.

Expansion of sovereign AI capacity

In these early days, many have been content playfully exploring AI’s possibilities. However, as these AI tools begin to unlock rapid advancements across all sectors of our society, more fine-grained control over who governs these foundational technologies will become increasingly important.

In 2024, we will likely see future-focused leaders incentivising the development of their sovereign capabilities through increased research and development funding, training programs and other investments.

For the rest of us, whether you’re using generative AI for fun, work, or school, understanding the strengths and limitations of the technology is essential for using it in responsible, respectful and productive ways.

Similarly, understanding how others – from governments to doctors – are increasingly using AI in ways that affect you, is equally important.

T.J. Thomson receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is an affiliate with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision Making & Society.

Daniel Angus receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is a Chief Investigator with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision Making & Society.

– ref. 2023 was the year of generative AI. What can we expect in 2024? – https://theconversation.com/2023-was-the-year-of-generative-ai-what-can-we-expect-in-2024-219808

An AI-driven influence operation is spreading pro-China propaganda across YouTube

By The Conversation -

December 19, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Tuffley, Senior Lecturer in Applied Ethics & CyberSecurity, Griffith University

A recent investigation from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) has revealed an extensive network of YouTube channels promoting pro-Chinese and anti-US public opinion in the English-speaking world.

The operation is well-coordinated, using generative AI to rapidly produce and publish content, while deftly exploiting YouTube’s algorithmic recommendation system.

How big is the network?

Operation “Shadow Play” involves a network of at least 30 YouTube channels with about 730,000 subscribers. At the time of writing this article the channels had some 4,500 videos between them, with about 120 million views.

According to ASPI, the channels gained audiences by using AI algorithms to cross-promote each other’s content, thereby boosting visibility. This is concerning as it allows state messaging to cross borders with plausible deniability.

The network of videos also featured an AI avatar created by British artificial intelligence company Synthesia, according to the report, as well as other AI-generated entities and voiceovers.

While it’s not clear who is behind the operation, investigators say the controller is likely Mandarin-speaking. After profiling the behaviour, they concluded it doesn’t match that of any known state actor in the business of online influence operations. Instead, they suggest it might be a commercial entity operating under some degree of state direction.

These findings double as the latest evidence that advanced influence operations are evolving faster than defensive measures.

Influencer conflicts of interest

One clear parallel between the Shadow Play operation and other influence campaigns is the use of coordinated networks of inauthentic social media accounts, and pages amplifying the messaging.

For example, in 2020 Facebook took down a network of more than 300 Facebook accounts, pages and Instagram accounts that were being run from China and posting content about the US election and COVID pandemic. As was the case with Shadow Play, these assets worked together to spread content and make it appear more popular than it was.

Is current legislation strong enough?

The current disclosure requirements around sponsored content have some glaring gaps when it comes to addressing cross-border influence campaigns. Most Australian consumer protection and advertising regulation focuses on commercial sponsorships rather than geopolitical conflicts of interest.

Platforms such as YouTube prohibit deceptive practices in their stated rules. However, identifying and enforcing violations is difficult with foreign state-affiliated accounts that conceal who is pulling their strings.

Determining what is propaganda, as opposed to free speech, raises difficult ethical questions around censorship and political opinions. Ideally, transparency measures shouldn’t unduly restrict protected speech. But viewers still deserve to understand an influencer’s incentives and potential biases.

Possible measures could include clear disclosures when content is affiliated directly or indirectly with a foreign government, as well as making affiliation and location data more visible on channels.

How to spot deceptive content?

As technologies become more sophisticated, it’s becoming harder to discern what agenda or conflict of interest may be shaping the content of a video.

Discerning viewers can gain some insight by looking into the creator(s) behind the content. Do they provide information on who they are, where they’re based and their background? A lack of clarity may signal an attempt to obscure their identity.

You can also assess the tone and goal of the content. Does it seem to be driven by a specific ideological argument? What is the poster’s ultimate aim: are they just trying to get clicks, or are they persuading you into believing their viewpoint?

Check for credibility signals, such as what other established sources say about this creator or their claims. When something seems dubious, rely on authoritative journalists and fact-checkers.

And make sure not to consume too much content from any single creator. Get your information from reliable sources across the political spectrum so you can take an informed stance.

The bigger picture

The advancement of AI could exponentially amplify the reach and precision of coordinated influence operations if ethical safeguards aren’t implemented. At its most extreme, the unrestricted spread of AI propaganda could undermine truth and manipulate real-world events.

Propaganda campaigns may not stop at trying to shape narratives and opinions. They could also be used to generate hyper-realistic text, audio and image content aimed at radicalising individuals. This could greatly destabilise our societies.

We’re already seeing the precursors of what could become AI psy-ops with the ability to spoof identities, surveil citizens en masse, and automate disinformation production.

Without applying an ethics or oversight framework to content moderation and recommendation algorithms, social platforms could effectively act as misinformation mega-amplifiers optimised for watch-time, regardless of the consequences.

Over time, this may erode social cohesion, upend elections, incite violence and even undermine our democratic institutions. And unless we move quickly, the pace of malicious innovation may outstrip any regulatory measures.

It’s more important than ever to establish external oversight to make sure social media platforms work for the greater good, and not just short-term profit.

David Tuffley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. An AI-driven influence operation is spreading pro-China propaganda across YouTube – https://theconversation.com/an-ai-driven-influence-operation-is-spreading-pro-china-propaganda-across-youtube-219962

NZ’s new government is getting tough on gangs – but all the necessary laws already exist

By The Conversation -

December 19, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kris Gledhill, Professor of Law, Auckland University of Technology

The new coalition government has made its campaign promise to crack down on gangs a priority in its 100-day action plan. But whether the new “get tough” policy genuinely plugs gaps in existing legislation is very much open to question.

The policy was laid out in a letter of expectations to the police commissioner from new police minister Mark Mitchell in early December, including: banning gang patches in public, stopping public gang meetings, and preventing gang members communicating with each other.

The government also promises extra police powers to search for guns, and to make gang membership an aggravating feature at sentencing.

We all have a right to be safe from harm, including harm by gangs. But there are already many relevant offences in the law that exist to protect the general public.

No need for new law

First, it is already an offence to be in a criminal gang. Section 98A of the Crimes Act 1961 allows up to ten years’ imprisonment for participating in an “organised criminal group”. This involves three or more people who aim to commit serious violence, or who benefit from offending, liable for at least four years’ imprisonment.

As with most serious criminal offences, a guilty mind is required: you have to know it is a criminal group, realise your involvement might contribute to criminal activity, and also be aware the criminal activity might help the criminal group.

It is also a criminal conspiracy to agree to commit offences. And our “joint enterprise” law in section 66(2) of the Crimes Act means those who agree to commit one offence are also guilty of other foreseeable offences committed by the group.

There are also many offences against public order in the Summary Offences Act 1981, including disorderly or offensive behaviour, and associating with those convicted of theft, violence or drugs offending.

As well, there is the Prohibition of Gang Insignia in Government Premises Act 2013. This bans gang insignia in or on premises operated by central and local government, including schools, hospitals and swimming pools, but not Kāinga Ora housing.

Guns and gangs

The Arms Act 1983 makes the privilege of obtaining a firearms licence dependent on being a “fit and proper person”; gang membership and convictions already mean this test is not met.

Section 18 of the Search and Surveillance Act 2012 allows the police to search any person or place if they reasonably suspect a breach of the Arms Act.

And when it comes to sentencing, section 9(1) of the Sentencing Act 2002 already requires judges to consider an offence to be worse if committed as part of organised criminal activity.

The Criminal Proceeds (Recovery) Act 2009 allows the seizure of criminal gains even if there has not been a conviction.

In short, if arresting our way out of a problem works, there are already many criminal justice tools. We should also note that the apparent growth in gang membership has occurred despite these various offences and powers.

Rights and their limits

We also need to ask whether the new anti-gang measures breach fundamental principles such as human rights. These are part of New Zealand law, through the New Zealand Bill of Rights Act 1990 and the common law. They also reflect international standards that New Zealand has agreed to respect.

Everyone has the right to freedom of expression, which includes proclaiming gang affiliation. There is also the right to associate with others, and to assemble peacefully.

But all of these rights have to be balanced against other interests. The Bill of Rights Act sums this up by allowing “reasonable limits” that “can be demonstrably justified in a free and democratic society”.

Essentially, legislation that restricts rights requires a legitimate purpose. This is usually easy to show. But it is also necessary to consider whether such restrictions work and do so in a way that is proportionate to the breach of rights.

We have an idea what the courts might say. For example, in Morse v Police, the Supreme Court decided burning the New Zealand flag during an Anzac Day parade to protest New Zealand involvement in Afghanistan was not offensive behaviour, because it did not go beyond what people should be expected to tolerate in a democracy.

And in Schubert v Wanganui District Council, the High Court decided the ban on gang patches in all public places in the district went too far; the evidence did not show that something more tailored would have been as effective.

Tackling membership is the challenge

The government might suggest its main aim is to extend the 2013 legislation banning gang patches in government premises to all public places. But that legislation is probably acceptable because it has limits.

The Bill of Rights Act also protects against discrimination. Here we have to recall that Māori are disproportionately imprisoned, and disproportionately affected by socioeconomic factors (including abuse in state care and incarceration) that seem linked to gang recruitment.

Since it is likely that action against gangs will affect Māori to a greater extent, a Waitangi Tribunal claim may be expected.

To abide by existing human rights provisions in the law, the government will need to craft various exceptions to the ban on gang patches, or to people meeting or communicating with each other.

Alternatively, if it is comfortable with breaches of human rights, it can make that clear. This is possible because the Bill of Rights Act can be sidestepped by parliament using legislative language that precludes consistency with such rights.

This would still leave the law in breach of New Zealand’s international obligations, with resulting reputational damage.

But we should also be mindful that criminal justice powers represent an ambulance at the bottom of the cliff. People’s right to be safe is more likely to be secured by other steps that turn people away from gang membership in the first place.

Kris Gledhill is currently working on a project relating to the Sentencing Act 2002 the expenses for which are funded by the Borrin Foundation. He is also a co-opted member of the Criminal Bar Association’s Executive Committee. The views expressed in this article are his own.

– ref. NZ’s new government is getting tough on gangs – but all the necessary laws already exist – https://theconversation.com/nzs-new-government-is-getting-tough-on-gangs-but-all-the-necessary-laws-already-exist-217557

Australia’s freight used to go by train, not truck. Here’s how we can bring back rail – and cut emissions

By The Conversation -

December 19, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Philip Laird, Honorary Principal Fellow, University of Wollongong

Until the 1960s, railways dominated freight across every distance bar the shortest. Much freight went by sea, and some by truck.

But then trucking grew, and grew, and grew, while rail’s share of freight outside mined ore has shrunk and domestic shipping freight is diminished. By the mid-70s, trains carried only about 23% of domestic non-bulk freight (such as consumer goods) and trucks took 65.5%.

By 2021–22, trains took just 16.7% and trucks took almost 80%. Just 2% of freight between Melbourne and Sydney now goes by rail, while road freight is projected to keep growing.

That’s a problem, given heavy trucks are big emitters. Rail uses roughly a third of the diesel as a truck would to transport the same weight. Transport now accounts for 21% of Australia’s emissions. While electric cars and the long-awaited fuel efficiency standards are projected to cut this by seven million tonnes, trucking emissions are expected to keep growing.

It won’t be easy to change it. But if we improve sections of railway track on the east coast, we could at least make rail faster and more competitive.

How did road freight become dominant?

Since the 1970s, the volume of freight carried by Australia’s rail and road have both grown. But rail’s growth has largely been in bulk freight, such as the 895 million tonnes of iron ore and 338 million tonnes of coal exports in 2022–23.

Road freight has grown enormously due largely to non-bulk freight such as consumer goods. Freight carried by road has grown from about 29 billion tonne-kilometres in 1976–77 to 163 billion tonne-kilometres in 2021–22. (A tonne-kilometre measures the number of tonnes carried multiplied by distance). In that period, non-bulk freight carried by rail increased from about 10 to 34 billion tonne-kilometres.

Why? An official report gives key reasons such as expanding highway networks and higher capacity vehicles such as B-doubles.

Spending on roads across all levels of government is now more than A$30 billion a year.

front of truck with sign saying without trucks Australia stops — From freight trains to road trains: trucks have taken the throne from trains.
Shutterstock

Federal grants enabled the $20 billion reconstruction of the entire Hume Highway (Melbourne to Sydney), bringing it up to modern engineering standards. A similar sum was spent on reconstructing most of the Pacific Highway (Sydney to Brisbane).

What do our trains get? In 2021–22, the Australian Rail Track Corporation had a meagre $153 million to maintain its existing 7,500 kilometre interstate network.

This is separate from the 1,600km Inland Rail project which will link Melbourne to Brisbane via Parkes when complete. If the massive Inland Rail project is completed in the 2030s, it could potentially cut Australia’s freight emissions by 0.75 million tonnes a year by taking some freight off trucks. But this freight-only line is some way off – the first 770km between Beveridge in Victoria and Narromine in New South Wales is expected to be complete by 2027.

As a result, the authority maintaining Australia’s interstate rail tracks is “really struggling with maintenance, investment and building resilience”, according to federal Infrastructure Minister Catherine King.

This makes it harder for rail to compete, as Paul Scurrah, CEO of Pacific National, Australia’s largest private rail freight firm has said:

Each year, billions in funding is hardcoded in federal and state government budgets to upgrade roads and highways, which then spurs on greater access for bigger and heavier trucks […] Rail freight operators pay ‘full freight’ rates to run on tracks plagued by pinch points, speed restrictions, weight limits, sections susceptible to frequent flooding, and a lack of passing opportunities on networks shared with passenger services

What would it take to make rail more viable?

By 2030, road freight emissions are expected to increase from 37 to 42 million tonnes, while railway emissions stay steady at four million tonnes.

The need to cut freight emissions has been recognised by the Australian government, which has accelerated a review of the national freight and supply chain strategy.

To date, much attention in Australia and overseas has centred on finding ways to lower trucking emissions.

There are other ways. One is to shift some freight back to rail, which forms part of Victoria’s recent green freight strategy. This will be assisted by new intermodal terminals allowing containers to be offloaded from long-distance trains to trucks for the last part of their journey.

The second way is to improve rail freight energy efficiency. Western Australia’s long, heavy iron ore freight trains are already very energy efficient, and the introduction of battery electric locomotives will improve efficiency further. Our interstate rail freight on the eastern seaboard is much less efficient.

While the Inland Rail project is being built, we urgently need to upgrade the existing Melbourne–Sydney–Brisbane rail corridor, which has severe restrictions on speed.

To make this vital corridor better, there are three main sections of new track needed on the New South Wales line to replace winding or slow steam-age track. They’re not new – my colleagues and I first identified them more than 20 years ago.

These new sections are:

Wentworth – about 40km of track stretching from near Macarthur to Mittagong
Centennial – about 70km of track from near Goulburn to Yass
Hoare – about 80km of track from near Yass to Cootamundra.

If we replaced 260km of steam-age track with these three sections and another 10km elsewhere, we would cut two hours off the Melbourne–Sydney freight transit time. Energy use would fall at least 10%. Better still, faster tilt trains could then run, potentially halving the Sydney–Melbourne passenger trip to 5.5 hours.

Track straightening on the Brisbane–Rockhampton line in the 1990s made it possible to run faster tilt trains and heavier, faster freight trains.

One challenge is who would build this. This year’s review of the Inland Rail project amid cost and time blowouts has raised questions over whether the ARTC is best placed to do so.

One thing is for sure: business as usual will mean more trucks carrying freight and more emissions. To actually tackle freight emissions will take policy reform on many fronts.

Philip Laird owns shares in some transport companies and has received funding from two rail-related CRCs as well as the ARC. He is affiliated, inter alia, with the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport, the Railway Technical Society of Australasia and the Rail Futures Institute. The opinions expressed are those of the author.

– ref. Australia’s freight used to go by train, not truck. Here’s how we can bring back rail – and cut emissions – https://theconversation.com/australias-freight-used-to-go-by-train-not-truck-heres-how-we-can-bring-back-rail-and-cut-emissions-219332

Amid allegations of price gouging, it’s time for big supermarkets to come clean on how they price their products

By The Conversation -

December 19, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sanjoy Paul, Associate Professor, UTS Business School, University of Technology Sydney

With inflation driving up the cost of living, many are dreading not just the hassle of a big grocery shop, but also the bruising cost.

But while Australians struggle with their budget and spending, several major supermarkets made large profits in 2022–23. Coles and Woolworths, for example, made net profits of A$1.1 billion and A$1.62 billion, respectively.

Allegations of price gouging by Australian supermarkets have even led to a Senate inquiry into supermarket pricing.

Coles chief executive Leah Weckert has promised to appear at the inquiry, saying the company “works hard to keep prices affordable for Australian households […]” and is ready to “engage in an informed discussion on the factors that influence supermarket pricing.”

Woolworths Group chief executive Brad Banducci, meanwhile, said he welcomes the chance to explain to the Senate “how we are working to balance the needs of our customers, our team and our suppliers in the context of economy-wide inflationary pressure”.

But why wait until a Senate inquiry to explain all that? There’s an opportunity now for the big supermarkets to be more transparent about how they decide what prices to put on products.

Allegations of price gouging

It’s not just politicians and customers complaining about supermarket prices.

Australian farmers have also accused Coles and Woolworths of price gouging for fruits and vegetables, claiming supermarkets profit too much from their crops.

The National Farmers’ Federation has called for greater transparency from the supermarkets on how they decide prices.

A recent survey by AUSVEG (the peak industry body for the Australian vegetable and potato industries) found 34% of vegetable growers are considering leaving the industry in the next 12 months as they struggle to turn a profit.

When asked about calls for more transparent pricing, a Woolworths spokesperson told The Conversation:

We publish both our average gross margin and EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) margin transparently in our public financial reports.

Supply chain costs are different for every product and they are constantly fluctuating, as are our buying costs in the case of fresh food like fruit and vegetables.

Shoppers are very savvy. We operate in a highly competitive industry and we know our customers will – and do – shop around to find the best value.

As we start to see the rate of inflation ease, we will continue to focus on delivering savings to our customers.

Coles was also contacted for comment but did not reply before publication deadline.

Factoring in many costs

When a retailer buys products from their suppliers, it involves a supply chain that includes supply, manufacturing, transportation and distribution, warehouse and storage.

There are several costs – such as product costs, transportation fees, labour, rent, inventory and more – involved at every step of the process.

The supermarket must factor in all costs, as well as its profit margin, when it sets the selling price for a product.

Organisations usually have these cost breakdowns as part of their internal decision-making – but they don’t typically disclose these calculations to their customers.

Not disclosing the cost breakdowns

The problem for supermarkets is that when they don’t disclose details such as their buying price or supply chain costs, it can contribute to anger among customers and suppliers.

Apple and Pear Australia Limited – the national peak industry body for apple and pear growers – has called for retailers to demonstrate greater price transparency, saying, “frustration at the behaviour of the major retailers has again angered many growers”.

Of course, supermarkets use several pricing strategies to win customer support – such as locking in prices for a certain period of time, everyday low prices on key products, specials, price-matching and discounts.

Supermarkets spend millions of dollars on these price-related advertisements, but perhaps they would get more community support by simply disclosing cost breakdowns on their websites and in-store to show their commitment to transparent and fair pricing.

Transparent and fair pricing

Research shows price transparency helps businesses build trust with their customers.

Many major retailers already have this information for internal decision-making, so could display this online and in stores.

Yes, prices change constantly due to factors outside their control – such as fuel prices, shipping problems or even supply chain issues linked to global conflict. But being more open with customers about these issues could help repair relationships and their public image.

Perhaps there may even be a role for government, which could collaborate with supermarkets and retailers to develop policies for transparent and fair pricing.

Everyday Australians deserve to be treated fairly and given the information they need about how major supermarkets price their products, so they can make informed decisions at the checkout.

Sanjoy Paul does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Amid allegations of price gouging, it’s time for big supermarkets to come clean on how they price their products – https://theconversation.com/amid-allegations-of-price-gouging-its-time-for-big-supermarkets-to-come-clean-on-how-they-price-their-products-219316

Women want to see the same health provider during pregnancy, birth and beyond

By The Conversation -

December 19, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hazel Keedle, Senior Lecturer of Midwifery, Western Sydney University

In theory, pregnant women in Australia can choose the type of health provider they see during pregnancy, labour and after they give birth. But this is often dependent on where you live and how much you can afford in out-of-pocket costs.

While standard public hospital care is the most common in Australia, accounting for 40.9% of births, the other main options are:

GP shared care, where the woman sees her GP for some appointments (15% of births)
midwifery continuity of care in the public system, often called midwifery group practice or caseload care, where the woman sees the same midwife of team of midwives (14%)
private obstetrician care (10.6%)
private midwifery care (1.9%).

Given the choice, which model would women prefer?

Our new research, published BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth, found women favoured seeing the same health provider throughout pregnancy, in labour and after they have their baby – whether that’s via midwifery group practice, a private midwife or a private obstetrician.

Assessing strengths and limitations

We surveyed 8,804 Australian women for the Birth Experience Study (BESt) and 2,909 provided additional comments about their model of maternity care. The respondents were representative of state and territory population breakdowns, however fewer respondents were First Nations or from culturally or linguistically diverse backgrounds.

We analysed these comments in six categories – standard maternity care, high-risk maternity care, GP shared care, midwifery group practice, private obstetric care and private midwifery care – based on the perceived strengths and limitations for each model of care.

Overall, we found models of care that were fragmented and didn’t provide continuity through the pregnancy, birth and postnatal period (standard care, high risk care and GP shared care) were more likely to be described negatively, with more comments about limitations than strengths.

What women thought of standard maternity care in hospitals

Women who experienced standard maternity care, where they saw many different health care providers, were disappointed about having to retell their story at every appointment and said they would have preferred continuity of midwifery care.

Positive comments about this model of care were often about a midwife or doctor who went above and beyond and gave extra care within the constraints of a fragmented system.

Baby being cleaned after birth — Sometimes midwives and doctors in the public system exceeded expectations.
Inez Carter/Shutterstock

The model of care with the highest number of comments about limitations was high-risk maternity care. For women with pregnancy complications who have their baby in the public system, this means seeing different doctors on different days.

Some respondents received conflicting advice from different doctors, and said the focus was on their complications instead of their pregnancy journey. One woman in high-risk care noted:

The experience was very impersonal, their focus was my cervix, not preparing me for birth.

Why women favoured continuity of care

Overall, there were more positive comments about models of care that provided continuity of care: private midwifery care, private obstetric care and midwifery group practice in public hospitals.

Women recognised the benefits of continuity and how this included informed decision-making and supported their choices.

The model of care with the highest number of positive comments was care from a privately practising midwife. Women felt they received the “gold standard of maternity care” when they had this model. One woman described her care as:

Extremely personable! Home visits were like having tea with a friend but very professional. Her knowledge and empathy made me feel safe and protected. She respected all of my decisions. She reminded me often that I didn’t need her help when it came to birthing my child, but she was there if I wanted it (or did need it).

However, this is a private model of care and women need to pay for it. So there are barriers in accessing this model of care due to the cost and the small numbers working in Australia, particularly in regional, rural and remote areas, among other barriers.

Women who had private obstetricians were also positive about their care, especially among women with medical or pregnancy complications – this type of care had the second-highest number of positive comments.

This was followed by women who had continuity of care from midwives in the public system, which was described as respectful and supportive.

However, one of the limitations about continuity models of care is when the woman doesn’t feel connected to her midwife or doctor. Some women who experienced this wished they had the opportunity to choose a different midwife or doctor.

What about shared care with a GP?

While shared care between the GP and hospital model of care is widely promoted in the public maternity care system as providing continuity, it had a similar number of negative comments to those who had fragmented standard hospital care.

Considering there is strong evidence about the benefits of midwifery continuity of care, and this model of care appears to be most acceptable to women, it’s time to expand access so all Australian women can access continuity of care, regardless of their location or ability to pay.

Hazel Keedle is affiliated with the Australian College of Midwives. Funding for this study was from a School of Nursing and Midwifery Partnership Grant through Western Sydney University, The Qiara Vincent Thiang Memorial Award and Maridulu Budyari Gumal SPHERE Maternal, Newborn and Women’s Clinical Academic Group funding.

Hannah Dahlen has received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Commission, the Australian Research Council, the Medical Research Future Fund (funding and for this study and funding from a School of Nursing and Midwifery Partnership Grant through Western Sydney University), The Qiara Vincent Thiang Memorial Award and Maridulu Budyari Gumal SPHERE Maternal, Newborn and Women’s Clinical Academic Group funding.

– ref. Women want to see the same health provider during pregnancy, birth and beyond – https://theconversation.com/women-want-to-see-the-same-health-provider-during-pregnancy-birth-and-beyond-217803

‘Politically neutral’ Russian athletes can now enter the Olympics – but don’t expect many to compete

By The Conversation -

December 19, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Keith Rathbone, Senior Lecturer, Modern European History and Sports History, Macquarie University

Earlier this month, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) announced Russian and Belarussian athletes will be able to compete in the 2024 Paris Olympics if they are politically neutral. The decision from the committee’s executive board reversed an earlier ban.

The IOC made this change even though the Russian National Olympic Committee remains suspended from competition for its violation of “the territorial integrity of the National Olympic Committee of Ukraine”. For its part, Russia rejects the decision.

The committee’s decision has enraged Western leaders, particularly those in Ukraine. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba accused the committee of effectively giving “[…] Russia the green light to weaponize the Olympics”.

While it might seem like a good idea not to hold individual athletes responsible for the decisions of governments, the decision is more complicated that it appears.

Athletes caught in the middle

More than 30 Western nations, including Australia, have previously called for a complete ban on Russian participation in the Games.

IOC President Thomas Bach defended his decision by arguing “individual athletes cannot be punished for the acts of their governments”.

The ruling came with strict conditions. Athletes must not be open supporters of the Russian invasion and they cannot be affiliated with Russian or Belarussian military or security services.

They cannot compete under their home country’s flag, or with national emblems or anthems.

The committee estimates that only 11 athletes – six Russians and five Belarussians – will qualify under these regulations.

The committee has been slowly working towards this policy since the spring of 2023.

The call may seem reasonable. After all, why should Russian and Belarussian athletes, especially those not supportive of the invasion, suffer from the actions of their government?

But it’s not quite that cut and dry.

Different, inconsistent approaches

The rule change seems inconsistent. As the committee continues to ban the participation of Russian teams, not all neutral Russian and Belarussian athletes will be able to participate.

Sporting federations can also continue to ban Russian and Belarussian athletes from competition and therefore qualification for the Games. World Athletics President Seb Coe confirmed that the organisation will continue to ban them.

By contrast, World Taekwondo and World Judo have both allowed Russian and Belarussian athletes to compete in qualification.

In September, the International Paralympic Committee also decided neutral athletes can compete.

What can Ukraine’s allies do?

With the Paris 2024 games only seven months away, the IOC’s decision seems final. But frustrated Western leaders have other options.

In the past year, Western officials have threatened to boycott the Olympics if Russian and Belarussian athletes competed.

There is a long history of politically motivated Olympic boycotts and threatened boycotts. In 1980, the United States and 66 other countries boycotted the Moscow games in response to the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan. Eight other countries, including Australia, competed under an Olympic flag to signal their opposition to the invasion.

In 1984, in response, the Soviet Union and its allies boycotted the summer Olympics in Los Angeles.

A boycott of the Paris Olympics would be devastating to the organisers, but it remains very unlikely. France is a Western nation and a strong supporter of Ukraine. President Emmanuel Macron recently encouraged the European Union to continue supporting the beleaguered nation.

As a more palatable approach, Western leaders could ban athletes from Russia and Belarus from competing in international athletic competitions in Western Europe in the run-up to the games. This would likely make it impossible for any athletes from those countries to qualify for spots in Paris.

As historian Heather Dichter has shown, travel bans have a long history in the Olympics.

In the 1960s, there was a NATO-wide ban on East German athletes travelling to compete in events in Western European countries. This effectively barred them from participation in several major sporting competitions and from qualifying for the Olympics.

Some Western leaders have already attempted to use this strategy against Russian and Belarussian athletes. Polish President Andrzej Duda refused to issue visas to Russian and Belarussian fencers for a qualification competition in June. The International Fencing Federation moved the matches to Bulgaria where the neutral athletes could compete.

As a more drastic step, French officials could simply ban all Russian and Belarussian athletes from travelling to Paris during the Olympics. The committee would likely have no recourse at this late date.

It would would align with the approach of some other EU member nations that ban Russian tourism and travel.

However, the French National Olympic Committee would likely oppose such a move. They might worry that it threatens the viability of their likely future 2030 Winter Olympic Games.

At a time when so much international attention has turned to the Israel/Hamas war, will leaders, however frustrated, do anything in response?

Only time will tell, but one thing’s for sure: whatever happens will be carefully calculated to account for the vast array of geopolitical moving parts.

Keith Rathbone does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘Politically neutral’ Russian athletes can now enter the Olympics – but don’t expect many to compete – https://theconversation.com/politically-neutral-russian-athletes-can-now-enter-the-olympics-but-dont-expect-many-to-compete-219796

Do dog ‘talking buttons’ actually work? Does my dog understand me? Here’s what the science says

By The Conversation -

December 19, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Hazel, Associate Professor, School of Animal and Veterinary Science, University of Adelaide

Is your dog bothered by something but you can’t work out what? Do you wish they could tell you?

There’s a huge range of dog “talking” buttons on the market that now claim to let your dog do this. A very basic kit will set you back about $15, while more sophisticated ones can cost hundreds of dollars.

But is there any evidence these products work?

How the buttons work

The idea behind these buttons is simple. You record yourself speaking a word such as “treat” or “outside” into each button, after which the word is played back each time the button is pressed. Your dog can supposedly be trained to understand the words coming from the buttons, and use them to communicate with you.

Talking buttons are an example of augmentative and alternative communication. To put it simply, they’re a method of communication that doesn’t use speech. In humans, similar devices are valuable for people with autism or intellectual disability, or those suffering from a stroke or other neurological condition.

Can dogs learn complex communication?

A dog could figure out to press talking buttons through a process called operant conditioning – the same process used to teach dogs simple commands such as “sit”. When a dog performs a behaviour and receives something they want, such as a treat, they’re more likely to continue that behaviour.

The idea of dogs “talking” to humans with buttons was started by Christina Hunger, a speech language pathologist who understood the use of augmentative and alternative communication devices. Hunger claims to have taught her dog Stella more than 50 words and phrases up to five-words long.

Understanding human language is too complex a task for a dog. Sometimes it may seem like dogs can very perform complex tasks – such as driving a car – when they link simple behaviours learned through operant conditioning. But they’ve just learned simple behaviours that are linked together – they haven’t learned how to drive.

Alternative explanations

There are simple explanations for what may seem like complex behaviour in animals. For one thing, animals excel in picking up our body language. As a result, they may appear to understand more than they actually do.

Clever Hans the horse is the perfect example. Hans gained prominence in the early 1900s for allegedly being able to do mathematics. Even his trainer believed he could count. It was only when the trainer was no longer present that people realised Hans was relying on involuntary cues in the trainer’s body language to “solve” problems, and couldn’t actually count.

Dogs are probably even better than horses at picking up on our body language cues. As the first domesticated species, they’ve spent thousands of years working out what we’re likely to do next. Just think of all the times your dog has rushed to the door even before you’ve picked up their leash.

When we train dogs to use talking buttons, they’re probably learning using operant conditioning to some extent. For example, they learn that pressing a button can lead to a reward.

But in cases where dogs seem to be able to string multiple buttons together to say something advanced, or where they can press the “right” button when asked, they’re likely just responding to their owner’s body language. And they probably wouldn’t be able to replicate the behaviour if a new pet-sitter was making the command.

We need more data

Federico Rossan, director of the Comparative Cognition Lab at UC San Diego, is working on a large project analysing results from dogs using talking buttons.

Although FluentPet (a business that sells pet communication products) is involved, the study is reported to be independent. That means a person who doesn’t have a conflict of interest will analyse and report the results.

Data collection started in late 2020, but so far no evidence has been published. Until then, the best “evidence” we have for these products is anecdotal reporting coming from dog owners who are probably biased (since they’d like to think their dog is very clever).

Could it do any harm?

It matters when we treat our dogs differently depending on what we think they are thinking.

One example is when we assume dogs feel guilty for certain actions. For instance, when you come home and your dog has chewed up your favourite rug, they might look “guilty” as you scold them, but they’re actually just responding to your reaction. Studies have shown dogs can’t experience the human emotion of guilt.

That’s why you shouldn’t punish your dog when you come home to a chewed-up carpet. They won’t associate your yelling or smacking with their action from hours earlier.

The reality is some dogs will simply be more interested in interacting with talking buttons than others. There’s no good reason to think these dogs are therefore smarter than others.

Should I buy talking buttons?

If you can recognise and account for the potential risks mentioned above, then buying talking buttons won’t do any harm to you or your dog (apart from putting a dent in your wallet).

That said, there are myriad ways to communicate with your dog without needing such a device. Chaser the border collie learned how to retrieve 1,022 toys by name without an augmentative device.

However you do it, spending time with your dog using positive reinforcement training will benefit both of you. Dogs are amazing, unique animals with whom we can communicate in all kinds of ways, and they don’t need to understand our language for this.

Talking buttons could be harmful if a dog’s refusal to use them changes their owner’s attitude towards them.
Shutterstock

Susan Hazel receives funding from the Waltham Foundation and is associated with the Dog & Cat Management Board of South Australia, RSPCA South Australia and Animal Therapies Ltd.

Eduardo Fernandez receives funding from the Waltham Foundation.

– ref. Do dog ‘talking buttons’ actually work? Does my dog understand me? Here’s what the science says – https://theconversation.com/do-dog-talking-buttons-actually-work-does-my-dog-understand-me-heres-what-the-science-says-219807

5 ways to avoid weight gain and save money on food this Christmas

By The Conversation -

December 19, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nick Fuller, Charles Perkins Centre Research Program Leader, University of Sydney

As Christmas approaches, so does the challenge of healthy eating and maintaining weight-related goals. The season’s many social gatherings can easily tempt us to indulge in calorie-rich food and celebratory drinks. It’s why we typically gain weight over Christmas and then struggle to take it off for the remainder of the year.

Christmas 2023 is also exacerbating cost-of-living pressures, prompting some to rethink their food choices. Throughout the year, 71% of Australians – or 14.2 million people – adapted their eating behaviour in response to rising costs.

Fortunately, there are some simple, science-backed hacks for the festive season to help you celebrate with the food traditions you love without impacting your healthy eating habits, weight, or hip pocket.

1. Fill up on healthy pre-party snacks before heading out

If your festive season is filled with end-of-year parties likely to tempt you to fill up on finger foods and meals high in fat, salt, and sugar and low in nutritional value, have a healthy pre-event snack before you head out.

Research shows carefully selected snack foods can impact satiety (feelings of fullness after eating), potentially reducing the calories you eat later. High-protein, high-fibre snack foods have the strongest effect: because they take longer to digest, our hunger is satisfied for longer.

Person pours a handful of mixed nuts — Nuts are a good option.
Shutterstock/NazarBazar

So enjoy a handful of nuts, a tub of yoghurt, or a serving of hummus with veggie sticks before you head out to help keep your healthy eating plan on track.

2. Skip the low-carb drinks and enjoy your favourites in moderation

Despite the marketing promises, low-carb alcoholic drinks aren’t better for our health or waistlines.

Many low-carb options have a similar amount of carbohydrates as regular options but lull us into thinking they’re better, so we drink more. A survey found 15% of low-carb beer drinkers drank more beer than they usually would because they believed it was healthier for them.

A typical lager or ale will contain less than 1.5 grams of carbohydrate per 100 ml while the “lower-carb” variety can range anywhere from 0.5 grams to 2.0 grams. The calories in drinks come from the alcohol itself, not the carbohydrate content.

Next time you go to order, think about the quantity of alcohol you’re drinking rather than the carbs. Make sure you sip lots of water in between drinks to stay hydrated, too.

3. Don’t skimp on healthy food for Christmas Day – it’s actually cheaper

There’s a perception that healthy eating is more expensive. But studies show this is a misconception. A recent analysis in Victoria, for example, found following the Australian Dietary Guidelines cost the average family A$156 less a fortnight than the cost of the average diet, which incorporates packaged processed foods and alcohol.

So when you’re planning your Christmas Day meal, give the pre-prepared, processed food a miss and swap in healthier ingredients:

swap the heavy, salted ham for leaner and lighter meats such as fresh seafood. Some seafood, such as prawns, is also tipped to be cheaper this year thanks to favourable weather conditions boosting local supplies
for side dishes, opt for fresh salads incorporating seasonal ingredients such as mango, watermelon, peach, cucumber and tomatoes. This will save you money and ensure you’re eating foods when they’re freshest and most flavoursome

Woman holds platter at Summer Christmas lunch outdoors — Swap in healthier ingredients.
PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

if you’re roasting veggies, use healthier cooking oils like olive as opposed to vegetable oil, and use flavourful herbs instead of salt
if there’s an out-of-season vegetable you want to include, look for frozen and canned substitutes. They’re cheaper, and just as nutritious and tasty because the produce is usually frozen or canned at its best. Watch the sodium content of canned foods, though, and give them a quick rinse to remove any salty water
give store-bought sauces and dressings a miss, making your own from scratch using fresh ingredients.

4. Plan your Christmas food shop with military precision

Before heading to the supermarket to shop for your Christmas Day meal, create a detailed meal plan and shopping list, and don’t forget to check your pantry and fridge for things you already have.

Eating beforehand and shopping with a plan in hand means you’ll only buy what you need and avoid impulse purchasing.

When you’re shopping, price check everything. Comparing the cost per 100 grams is the most effective way to save money and get the best value. Check prices on products sold in different ways and places, too, such as nuts you scoop yourself versus prepacked options.

5. Don’t skip breakfast on Christmas Day

We’ve all been tempted to skip or have a small breakfast on Christmas morning to “save” the calories for later. But this plan will fail when you sit down at lunch hungry and find yourself eating far more calories than you’d “saved” for.

Research shows a low-calorie or small breakfast leads to increased feelings of hunger, specifically appetite for sweets, across the course of the day.

What you eat for breakfast on Christmas morning is just as important too – choosing the right foods will help you manage your appetite and avoid the temptation to overindulge later in the day.

Studies show a breakfast containing protein-rich foods, such as eggs, will leave us feeling fuller for longer.

So before you head out to the Christmas lunch, have a large, nutritionally balanced breakfast, such as eggs on wholegrain toast with avocado.

At the Boden Group, Charles Perkins Centre, we are studying the science of obesity and running clinical trials for weight loss. You can register here to express your interest.

Nick Fuller works for the University of Sydney and has received external funding for projects relating to the treatment of overweight and obesity. He is the author and founder of the Interval Weight Loss program.

– ref. 5 ways to avoid weight gain and save money on food this Christmas – https://theconversation.com/5-ways-to-avoid-weight-gain-and-save-money-on-food-this-christmas-219114

From laggard to leader? Why Australia must phase out fossil fuel exports, starting now

By The Conversation -

December 19, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Fergus Green, Lecturer in Political Theory and Public Policy, UCL

For years large fossil fuel producers — including Australia — have expanded fossil fuel production while maintaining rhetorically that the world needs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But global emissions are overwhelmingly caused by the extraction, transport and burning of fossil fuels. Unless fossil fuels are phased out, emissions will grow and the climate crisis will worsen.

At COP28 climate negotiations in Dubai, which wrapped up last week, this fact finally became the centre of attention. And fossil fuel producers were feeling the pressure — forced to defend their expansion of fossil fuels or change their tune.

Interestingly, Australia seems to be doing the latter, at least rhetorically. While successive governments have worked assiduously to keep fossil fuel production out of the spotlight at the UN talks, Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen said Australia supports the global phasing out of fossil fuels in energy systems by 2050. Clearly eager to avoid being seen as the villain at the talks, Bowen named Saudi Arabia as the main blocker to an agreement on phasing out fossil fuels.

But the text of COP decisions matters much less than the actions states and companies take. Australia — one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of fossil fuel-based carbon dioxide — is fuelling the problem, not solving it. Currently, Australian companies are moving to expand fossil fuel production: more than 100 major coal, oil and gas projects are in planning, at a cost of around A$200 billion. Some of these are “carbon bombs,” likely to add huge quantities of emissions.

Why Australia faces charges of hypocrisy

The Albanese government has already approved a number of new fossil fuel projects, embracing the fossil fuel expansionism of its conservative predecessors. But now that Australia has declared support for a global phase-out of fossil fuels, it must curtail its own exports or face continued charges of hypocrisy.

How could Australia do that while managing the fallout? Interestingly, Bowen’s rhetoric at COP contained the seeds of an answer: a “phase out of fossil fuels is Australia’s economic opportunity as [a] renewable energy superpower”. In line with this sentiment, Australia should adopt the mission of leading the Asia-Pacific region to a prosperous future by simultaneously phasing out its fossil fuel exports while phasing up its clean energy exports; by becoming a clean energy superpower instead of a dirty energy one.

Doing so would require a dramatic shift in Australia’s international climate posture: from a defensive, parochial, technocratic stance aimed at protecting fossil fuel expansion to proactive, outward-looking and pragmatic leadership; from merely focusing on its own territorial emissions to using all powers at its disposal in its sphere of influence.

First a new project ban, then a net zero plan

Our coal and gas exports are entirely within our sovereign control, and give us enormous leverage over our regional trading partners. No one is suggesting stopping fossil fuel exports overnight. But we could start by banning new projects, and then convening our regional partners to work out a plan to phase out existing production and consumption. Australian leadership would involve supporting our neighbours —through investment, trade and aid —to ensure their populations can access energy from zero-carbon sources, just as we’re aspiring to do at home.

Phasing out fossil fuel exports is thus best conceptualised as part of a shift in our foreign and trade policy aimed at securing our and our region’s prosperity against the existential threat of climate change — and amid a global pivot to clean energy. Call it “cooperative decarbonisation”. Viewed in this light, the typical objections to a fossil fuel phase-out in Australia look pathetic.

The weak objections to a phase-out

The first objection claims we are not responsible for the overseas emissions produced from burning our exported coal and gas. This falsely conflates Australia’s national interest in reducing emissions globally with its international legal responsibility for reporting emissions locally.

Nothing in the Paris Agreement prevents a country from taking actions that would reduce or avoid emissions in another country. It is reckless and self-defeating to concern ourselves only with emissions produced on our territory when our power to influence global emissions is so much greater. Let’s hope that Bowen’s rhetorical shift at COP28 signals acceptance of this fact.

The second objection is that leaving our fossil fuels in the ground will not affect global emissions, because if we don’t sell our coal and gas, someone else will. Aside from its immorality (the “drug dealer’s defence”), the objection defies Economics 101: if you reduce supply of a product, its price goes up, causing demand to contract. Other countries might supply some of the shortfall, but Australia is such a big producer that it is implausible to think we could exit the coal and gas markets without dramatically reducing global emissions.

Moreover, it’s shortsighted to think of fossil fuel export policy in isolation from the wider foreign policy choices we face. Australia’s current foreign policy is to promote our coal and gas exports: we literally pay public servants to help multinational companies sell more coal and gas. But if we gave our diplomats the nobler mission of leading our region’s decarbonisation, our leadership would help to make trade in fossil fuels redundant.

The last oft-heard objection is that phasing out fossil fuel production would cost too much. The foreign-owned corporations that produce most of our coal and gas pay little tax and employ relatively few people, while capturing billions of dollars in state and federal government subsidies. Scaling up as a clean energy superpower could bring more economic growth, jobs and tax revenue than would be lost from fossil fuels — especially if we taxed the fossil fuel industry properly on its way out.

Phase-outs can be done: lessons from overseas

Denmark, France, Ireland and Costa Rica are among a number of countries that have foregone new fossil fuel exploration and production opportunities; others are working to phase out existing operations. Doing so is undoubtedly challenging: firms, workers and the communities in which fossil fuel operations are located understandably tend to resist policies that would close their industry.

But government support can smooth the transition. The Spanish government, for instance, negotiated a “just transition agreement” with unions and businesses to phase out coal mining, support affected workers and invest in their communities. My coauthors and I found this strategy actually increased the government’s vote share at a subsequent election in the coal regions.

A phase-out of fossil fuel production is entirely feasible for a country with our resources, skills and diverse economy. The standard objections provide fossil fuel companies, and the politicians they’ve captured, with convenient excuses for cashing in while the planet — and Australia — burns. It’s time, instead, for bold actions that lead us and our region to a prosperous, fossil-free future.

Fergus Green is affiliated with the Powering Past Coal Alliance – is a coalition of national and subnational governments, businesses and organisations working to advance the transition from unabated coal power generation to clean energy. He is a member of the Alliance’s Just Transition Expert Group.

– ref. From laggard to leader? Why Australia must phase out fossil fuel exports, starting now – https://theconversation.com/from-laggard-to-leader-why-australia-must-phase-out-fossil-fuel-exports-starting-now-219912

Planting pine or native forest for carbon capture isn’t the only choice – NZ can have the best of both

By The Conversation -

December 19, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sebastian Leuzinger, Professor of Environmental Science, Auckland University of Technology

New Zealand’s per-capita contribution to carbon emissions is very high by international comparison. But so too is its potential to mitigate climate change by planting forests to quickly sequester large amounts of carbon.

There is sometimes passionate debate about how best to do this. Should we continue establishing radiata pine plantations, or focus instead on planting New Zealand native trees?

Arguments for and against each option exist – but there is also a third way that could achieve the best of both worlds: planting radiata pine forests that are not harvested, but instead transitioned over time into native forests through targeted management.

We need to cut emissions drastically. But we also need to remove as much CO₂ from the atmosphere as possible, especially over the next 20 years. A transitional forest model is a powerful way to help achieve this.

Farming carbon using trees

As trees grow they absorb CO₂ from the atmosphere and lock the carbon into wood, leaves, roots and soil.

The New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) provides income from growing trees to store carbon. It is a key tool for meeting domestic and international climate change targets, including the 2050 target set by the Climate Change Response Act 2002.

A newly planted native forest will absorb approximately 40 tonnes of atmospheric CO₂ per hectare over ten years. By contrast, an exotic radiata pine forest will achieve five to ten times this amount over the same period.

In other words, to absorb a given quantity of carbon during the early stages of reforestation, it will take five to ten times more farmland using natives. Because of this enormous advantage of exotics over natives, there is a place for exotic carbon farming.

Some object to pine planting on purely aesthetic grounds – they just don’t like the look of radiata forests. And we agree there are some places where pine is just not appropriate for the landscape. But the urgency to mitigate climate change means we need to turn as much unprofitable pasture into forest as possible.

Radiata forests are also criticised for being monocultures that lack biodiversity. But the pasture they replace is also a monoculture that contains even less biodiversity. Planting trees on pasture also reduces gross emissions by reducing animal stock and therefore methane emissions.

We can’t plant too many trees

A year of emissions in Aotearoa New Zealand equals 78.8 million tonnes CO₂ equivalent, based on 2020 figures. To offset this for a ten-year period would require planting roughly 20 million hectares of pasture in native trees, then waiting ten years for them to grow.

The total area of Aotearoa is 26.9 million hectares, with 3 million of those being mountains. Therefore, another treeless country of a similar size would be required to fully offset its emissions using native trees alone. Using radiata pine would require 2 to 4 million hectares.

At an individual level, just one return trip from Auckland to London for one person will produce approximately 11 tonnes of CO₂ emissions. To offset this would require planting over a quarter of a hectare (almost an acre) of native trees, and waiting ten years for them to grow.

On current projections, Aotearoa will need to purchase 100 million tonnes of offshore carbon credits to meet its international commitments. According to Treasury calculations, this will cost between NZ$3.3 billion to $23 billion between now and 2030.

Obviously, the country cannot offset all its emissions by planting trees, native or exotic. Reducing emissions in the first place is the priority. But from a climate perspective, we cannot plant too many trees of any kind.

Restoring biodiversity over time

One of the criticisms levelled at exotic carbon forests is that the carbon storage is not permanent because of the shorter lifespan of pine. But pine plantations in New Zealand can keep accumulating carbon for at least a century if they’re not harvested.

Also, the carbon storage is permanent if exotic forests are transitioned into self-sustaining native forests. This process occurs naturally, but can and should be accelerated by targeted management.

Because radiata pine needs a lot of light to grow, its own seedlings will not establish beneath its canopy. Therefore, pine will naturally decline over time and
gradually be replaced by native forest, a process that occurs naturally but takes many decades.

To provide crucial structural and species diversity, and to expedite the transition process, native trees requiring plenty of light need to be planted, and pine trees need to be thinned. This is nothing like commercial harvesting, so the problems associated with forestry “slash” do not arise.

Fruiting natives will attract birds and enhance seed dispersal. At the same time, the income from carbon credits through the ETS can be used for further plantings, and also to fund intensive animal pest control – a critical step towards rebuilding native forests.

Eventually, this strategy will provide both permanent carbon storage and carbon capture that continue way beyond a century. But within decades we would also see the return of large areas of highly biodiverse native forests.

Sebastian Leuzinger is a professor of ecology at Auckland University of Technology and occasionally consults for New Zealand Carbon Farming. He has received funding from the Royal Society in the past.

Len Gillman is co-chair of the Waitakere Ranges Pest free Alliance. He has acted as an independent consultant for local government and carbon farmers on climate change mitigation, climate effects mitigation and native forest restoration ecology.

– ref. Planting pine or native forest for carbon capture isn’t the only choice – NZ can have the best of both – https://theconversation.com/planting-pine-or-native-forest-for-carbon-capture-isnt-the-only-choice-nz-can-have-the-best-of-both-217772

Is it OK to let my kids watch the same show over and over again?

By The Conversation -

December 19, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Scholes, Associate Professor and ARC Principal Research Fellow, Australian Catholic University

Are you sure you want Frozen again? You’ve already seen it 20 times!

Do you find your children asking to watch the same TV shows and movies, or play the same video games over and over (and over again)? Perhaps you also find yourself thinking it would be better if they had a more varied screen-time diet.

The good news is, it’s perfectly OK for children to watch and repeat. In fact, it can help them learn.

Children learn through repetition

Children have a lot to learn about themselves and the world. A big part of the way they do this is through repetition.

This applies to learning to walk, talk and read. But it can also be said for TV shows, movies and video games with a storyline such as Stardew Valley.

Children may start by learning about the plot. On subsequent viewings they may pick up more details about the characters, the songs, the context or even the subtle twists and turns of the plot.

So this offers children insights into different characters, stories and ideas. These different perspectives offer valuable opportunities for learning about people and the world.

Repeat watching also enables immersion into a make-believe world that provides comfort. Just like adults might enjoy catching up on old episodes of Seinfeld or Friends, or watching Love, Actually each Christmas.

A young boy sits on a couch with a TV remote. — Children learn through repetition, and this applies to TV as well.
Kampus Production/Pexels, CC BY

A unique opportunity

When a child watches something over and over, this also opens up unique learning opportunities because they get to know the story so well.

Once a child is very familiar with a storyline, they can have deep discussion to help them think critically about what they are watching, especially once they’ve reached primary-school age.

Together, you can share ideas and consider alternative viewpoints to those offered in the story. Together, you can also question the assumptions in the characters’ actions and the storyline.

This will help your child’s critical thinking and help them evaluate information in the rest of their lives. It can also help them weigh up positive and negative attributes of characters, plots and beliefs that form part of the storyline.

Ultimately, this can help your child learn to reason and make judgements about controversial issues, and hopefully learn to do this in a respectful way.

How can you talk to your kids about their favourite shows?

If you want to have a thorough discussion with your child about their favourite program or game, set aside some time when you are not rushed.

Prepare by watching the program or movie, or playing the game before the discussion. Show excitement at the prospect of this time with your child and be prepared to listen carefully.

It is important for the discussions to be a two-way exchange where you both listen to each other (and not just a parent telling the child what the story is about or alternatively nodding along while the child gives their version).

The trick is to ask questions that do not have one right answer. Many stories bring up issues of ethics, morals, conflict, relationships, social issues and offer insights into the life of others. You could ask your child:

what they think the message in the story might be? Then ask them to justify their response with evidence from the story
about alternative perspectives. For example, maybe the movie was about the way someone’s actions affect others (rather than the power of magic or the triumph of goodies over baddies or the importance of family. Or maybe it was all of these things.)

You could also ask:

why they think character A did B? Then ask them if they agree with the actions or would have done something different themselves. Then ask them to justify their answer.

The aim is to discuss alternative messages and justify the response with examples from the story.

In this way you are helping your child make meaning in their world – a vital skill as they grow up.

So, next time the same show or movie goes on again, relax. It may be annoying for you to hear the same songs or storyline for the 1,000th time, but there are benefits for your child.

Laura Scholes has received funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Is it OK to let my kids watch the same show over and over again? – https://theconversation.com/is-it-ok-to-let-my-kids-watch-the-same-show-over-and-over-again-218042

Alvin Purple at 50: how ‘boobs and pubes’ led Australian screen’s sexual (and sexist) revolution

By The Conversation -

December 19, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Arrow, Professor of History, Macquarie University

Fifty years ago this week, the first blockbuster of the Australian new wave hit Australian cinemas. Directed by Tim Burstall and starring Graeme Blundell, Alvin Purple was a bawdy sex comedy about an unprepossessing young man who was irresistible to women.

It was a hit, screening for months after its release. A sequel, Alvin Rides Again, quickly followed in 1974, and a short-lived television series aired in 1976.

However, the jiggling flesh and bed-hopping antics of Alvin Purple were probably not what Australian politicians had in mind when they devised policies to create a local film industry in the late 1960s.

A wave of new nationalism

In the wake of global political and economic shifts, including the United Kingdom’s decision to join the European Common Market in 1973, Australia undertook a reevaluation of its national identity. Intellectuals and politicians believed culture, and film in particular, could foster this process and promote Australia to the world in an era of “new nationalism”.

The Holt and Gorton Liberal governments established the Australian Council for the Arts in 1967 and the Australian Film Development Corporation (AFDC) in 1970.

This embrace of government support for the arts was new. Government funding expanded the national significance and box office reach of Australian cinema. The Australian Film Development Corporation was encouraged to back popular, rather than arthouse films, with the aim of growing a commercially viable film industry.

The impact of this investment was quickly felt: while just 17 feature films were made in Australia in the 1960s, more than 150 were made in the 1970s.

Alvin Purple was the first big hit of this new era in Australian film, a standard-bearer of the new nationalism. As with so many images of Australian identity, such as the Anzac and the bushman, the new nationalism was represented by a white bloke: in this case, the Ocker. The Ocker was keen on colourful language, beer and women, in that order.

The Ocker was crucial to the new film industry, just as he had been the new radical Australian theatre of the late 1960s. Many of those involved in theatre would go on to shape Australian film, including Burstall and Blundell.

Australia’s new cinema classification system – which replaced the older system of strict censorship – was the second key ingredient in Australian cinema’s new wave. The Ocker films were almost all bawdy comedies which took advantage of the new R rating for films introduced in 1971. Alvin Purple’s abundant nudity – what one reviewer described as “boobs and pubes” – was one of the reasons it became a hit.

An Aussie sex comedy

In making Alvin Purple, Tim Burstall wanted to create “a sex comedy with […] purely Australian ingredients”.

Alvin Purple is indeed an Australian sex comedy but the joke is on Alvin: despite his view sex is “overrated”, he is bewilderingly irresistible to women of all ages, from screaming schoolgirls to the wife of his school principal, to the psychologist he sees in a bid to avoid sex.

To a generation of Australians raised on The Benny Hill Show (as I was), Alvin Purple looks like just another 70s sex comedy. It was as unpopular with critics as it was a hit with Australian audiences. But dig a little deeper and we can see how the film not only responded to the rise of the women’s movement, but also how it became a touchstone for feminists who were outraged by Australia’s sexist culture.

The central conceit of Alvin Purple – that he is an average bloke who is utterly irresistible to women – was an appealing male fantasy in an era of sexual liberation. Almost every female character in the film wants to have sex with Alvin. Director Burstall admitted to Cleo magazine in 1975 that Alvin Purple was a fantasy, “and if you want to get heavy, a male chauvinist fantasy”.

In the film’s opening scene, Alvin is riding a tram and, looking around at the alluringly dressed female passengers, complains:

How can you keep your mind off [sex] when it’s being flung at you every moment of the day?

Indeed, the women around him seem to invite his objectifying gaze: one woman wears a t-shirt reading “women should be obscene and not heard”, and Alvin fantasises about ripping another woman’s shirt open to expose her bare breasts. The film conflated the sexual revolution with women’s liberation.

For some Australian feminists, Alvin Purple was a symbol of Australian sexism. In 1974, two feminist protesters picketed the set of Burstall’s next film with placards reading “smash sexist movies” and “Burstall sexist shit”.

Sandra Hall, reviewing the film for The Bulletin described it as

cheerfully sexist […] there is flesh everywhere but the motivations are made of cardboard and the women are universally stupid.

In spite of, or perhaps because of this, Alvin Purple remains one of Australia’s highest-grossing films of all time. It is one of only three films made in the 1970s to make it into Screen Australia’s list of 100 top grossing local films.

Alvin Purple demonstrated Australians were ready to embrace local stories on their cinema screens. But the film’s legacy is complicated by its thin and stereotypical representation of women.

We cannot simply write the film’s sexism off as a product of a different time when women were criticising it for that very reason when it was released. Alvin still placed men at the centre of Australian stories, and that’s something we’re still wrestling with, 50 years on.

Michelle Arrow receives funding from The Australian Research Council.

– ref. Alvin Purple at 50: how ‘boobs and pubes’ led Australian screen’s sexual (and sexist) revolution – https://theconversation.com/alvin-purple-at-50-how-boobs-and-pubes-led-australian-screens-sexual-and-sexist-revolution-218420

Have we been trying to prevent suicides wrongly all this time?

By The Conversation -

December 18, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Kyron, Research Fellow, School of Psychological Science, The University of Western Australia

Traditional approaches to preventing suicide have focused on “who is at risk?” The aim is to identify an individual and to help them get support.

But that approach doesn’t seem to be working. Australia’s suicide rates have remained stubbornly high. There was an increase in the rate of suicides from 2012 to 2022.

We often do not know who is most vulnerable to suicide, and if we do, we struggle to efficiently target resources to them when they need it most. So we need a fresh approach.

Maybe we’ve been asking the wrong question all this time. Rather than asking “who is at risk?” we should also ask “when is a person at risk?”

We know depression increases suicide risk, but on a given day most depressed people will not consider suicide. We need to know when a person’s risk has risen to help them access support immediately.

Our preliminary research conducted in a Perth psychiatric hospital, and published recently, suggests this might be worth pursuing.

What we did

We conducted a “proof of concept” study involving inpatients at the psychiatric hospital Perth Clinic. Patients were invited to complete questionnaires on iPads in each room. Over more than a decade, more than 20,000 patients participated in the study, resulting in about 350,000 completed questionnaires.

We then examined questionnaire data from 110 inpatients who attempted suicide in the hospital over an average 25-day period. These patients were typically female (78%) and had a diagnosis of major depression or an anxiety disorder. They were 14 to 77 years old.

Of note, nurses had rated roughly half as having “no” to “low risk” of suicide, based on interviews with patients.

We then looked for patterns in the data to see if we could see who and when someone was at increased short-term risk of attempting suicide.

What we found

We found that on the day of a suicide attempt, a person’s perception they were a burden to friends and family increased greatly.

The day before a suicide attempt, patients reported an increased loss of hope in their lives. They perceived they could not change things that mattered to them.

We used this data to develop an algorithm to monitor spikes in these and other key risk factors that may signal increased short-term risk of suicide attempts.

This algorithm, now live in the hospital, alerts staff to at-risk patients to facilitate targeted and immediate interventions when the risk of attempted suicide is at its highest.

How can we apply these findings?

Key signals we identified as indicators of short-term risk of suicide – perceptions of burden or hopelessness – are often not matched by reality.

While people may think they are a burden, their friends and family members disagree. Far from being burdened, those friends and family are the ones who struggle to know how and when to give the assistance they desperately want to provide. Likewise, a perception of hopelessness is often transient and doesn’t always reflect reality.

So clinical staff can work with patients to help them re-evaluate these misguided beliefs, and to collaboratively develop coping strategies.

For instance, a core belief of “I am a burden” is replaced by “I wouldn’t think a loved one was a burden if they were suffering.”

Nurse comforting patient, one hand on shoulder, one on hand on knee — Clinical staff work with patients to help them re-evaluate their perceptions.
Monkey Business Images/Shutterstock

Where to now?

The aim now is to trial our approach in a larger number of psychiatric patients, across multiple sites across Australia, to see if this gives staff enough time to intervene and prevent imminent suicides.

We’re also hoping to test our methods in the community. This includes predicting the risk of suicide among school students, and remotely monitoring people at risk of suicide who present to primary care, such as their GP.

For instance, we are working with GPs to extend Perth Clinic’s daily monitoring system to track the symptoms of GP patients between appointments. Through this approach the GPs can monitor the effectiveness of medications or identify periods of heightened risk that can be addressed at future appointments.

Our approach is just one aspect of suicide prevention. We also need to address the complex web of societal, socioeconomic and other factors that contribute to the type of distress we see in people contemplating suicide.

If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14. In an emergency, call 000.

Andrew Page is a research consultant to Perth Clinic where the research was conducted. The research has been supported by the Australian Research Council’s Linkage Scheme where Perth Clinic was the industry partner.

Michael Kyron does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Have we been trying to prevent suicides wrongly all this time? – https://theconversation.com/have-we-been-trying-to-prevent-suicides-wrongly-all-this-time-218022

Have we been trying to prevent suicides wrong all this time?

By The Conversation -

December 18, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Kyron, Research Fellow, School of Psychological Science, The University of Western Australia

Traditional approaches to preventing suicide have focused on “who is at risk?” The aim is to identify an individual and to help them get support.

But that approach doesn’t seem to be working. Australia’s suicide rates have remained stubbornly high. There was an increase in the rate of suicides from 2012 to 2022.

We often do not know who is most vulnerable to suicide, and if we do, we struggle to efficiently target resources to them when they need it most. So we need a fresh approach.

Maybe we’ve been asking the wrong question all this time. Rather than asking “who is at risk?” we should also ask “when is a person at risk?”

Our preliminary research conducted in a Perth psychiatric hospital, and published recently, suggests this might be worth pursuing.

What we did

Of note, nurses had rated roughly half as having “no” to “low risk” of suicide, based on interviews with patients.

We then looked for patterns in the data to see if we could see who and when someone was at increased short-term risk of attempting suicide.

What we found

We found that on the day of a suicide attempt, a person’s perception they were a burden to friends and family increased greatly.

The day before a suicide attempt, patients reported an increased loss of hope in their lives. They perceived they could not change things that mattered to them.

We used this data to develop an algorithm to monitor spikes in these and other key risk factors that may signal increased short-term risk of suicide attempts.

This algorithm, now live in the hospital, alerts staff to at-risk patients to facilitate targeted and immediate interventions when the risk of attempted suicide is at its highest.

How can we apply these findings?

Key signals we identified as indicators of short-term risk of suicide – perceptions of burden or hopelessness – are often not matched by reality.

So clinical staff can work with patients to help them re-evaluate these misguided beliefs, and to collaboratively develop coping strategies.

For instance, a core belief of “I am a burden” is replaced by “I wouldn’t think a loved one was a burden if they were suffering.”

Where to now?

If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14. In an emergency, call 000.

– ref. Have we been trying to prevent suicides wrong all this time? – https://theconversation.com/have-we-been-trying-to-prevent-suicides-wrong-all-this-time-218022

Labor regains lead in Newspoll after tie, but Freshwater has a 50–50 tie

By The Conversation -

December 18, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A national Newspoll, conducted December 11–15 from a sample of 1,219, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll three weeks ago that had a 50–50 tie. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (down two), 33% Labor (up two), 13% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (up one) and 11% for all Others (down one).

Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 50% dissatisfied (down three) and 42% satisfied (up two), for a net approval of -8, up five points. Peter Dutton’s net approval improved four points to -9. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by an unchanged 46–35.

The graph below shows Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll since late 2022. While his net approval in this Newspoll is a recovery, he’s still well below net zero.

In my coverage of the previous Newspoll, I said other polls conducted at about the same time had narrow Labor leads, with Morgan giving the Coalition a 50.5–49.5 lead.

The polling now suggests Labor’s lead is increasing slightly. This may be explained by an improvement in economic sentiment. Morgan’s consumer confidence index was up 4.4 points last week to 80.8, the highest it has been since February.

Freshwater poll tied at 50–50

A national Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted December 15–17 from a sample of 1,109, had a 50–50 tie, a one-point gain for the Coalition since September. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (up two), 31% Labor (down two), 13% Greens (steady) and 16% for all Others (steady).

The Poll Bludger said Freshwater polls have been two or three points worse for Labor than the nearest Newspoll. This poll is better for Labor if Freshwater’s pro-Coalition lean is accounted for.

Albanese’s net approval was down two to -5, while Dutton’s was up eight to -2. Albanese led Dutton by 43–39 as preferred PM (46–37 in September). The Liberals had a net +3 approval, while Labor’s was -3 and the Greens were -16. Jacinta Price’s net approval was +7, Penny Wong’s was +5 and Barnaby Joyce’s was -17.

On issue salience, there was a six-point drop in cost of living to 71% and an eight-point rise in immigration to 13% (but this is only the eighth most important issue). The Coalition led Labor by five points on cost of living, up from one point in September. On immigration, the Coalition led by 13 points, up from five.

YouGov poll: Greens gain at Labor’s expense

A YouGov national poll, conducted December 1–5 from a sample of 1,555, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, unchanged since the previous YouGov poll in mid-November. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (up one), 29% Labor (down two), 15% Greens (up two), 7% One Nation (steady) and 12% for all Others (down one).

The Poll Bludger said this is Labor’s lowest primary vote in any poll since the last election. If repeated at an election, it would be Labor’s lowest since the first federal election in 1901.

Albanese’s net approval slumped nine points to -16, while Dutton’s net approval was down two to -9. Albanese led Dutton by 46–36 as preferred PM, with this ten-point margin down from 14 previously.

Essential poll: Labor’s lead increases

In last week’s federal Essential poll, conducted December 6–10 from a sample of 1,102, Labor led by 49–46 including undecided, out from 48–47 three weeks ago. Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (down one), 2% UAP (up one), 9% for all Others (up one) and 5% undecided (down one).

Voters were asked to rate Albanese and Dutton from zero to ten. Ratings of 0–3 were counted as negative, 4–6 as neutral and 7–10 as positive. Albanese was at 37–32 negative (35–33 in November). Dutton was at 37–28 negative (35–32 previously).

Big businesses and the government were thought to have too much power, while individuals, workers and small business were thought to not have enough. The most important issues voters wanted the government to address were energy prices, housing affordability and grocery prices.

Trust in various institutions has taken a double digit hit across the board since this question was last asked in September 2022.

Asked whether 2023 had been a good or bad year for various entities, the only one voter thought had had a better 2023 than 2022 were large companies and corporations (up ten points on net good to +36). There was a 22-point slump in “your personal financial situation” to -27 and a 14-point slump in the Australian economy to -41.

On what happened in 2023 relative to expectations at the beginning of the year, 49% said it had been worse than expected, 34% as expected and 13% better than expected. For 2024, 32% said it would be worse than 2023, 30% no different and 24% better.

Redbridge poll, Morgan poll and additional Resolve questions

A federal Redbridge poll conducted December 6–11 from a sample of 2,010, gave Labor a 52.8–47.2 lead, a 0.7-point gain for the Coalition since the previous Redbridge poll in early November. Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 33% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (down one) and 19% for all Others (up two).

By 53–33, voters thought Labor was not focused on the right priorities (50–36 in November). By 47–33, they thought the Coalition was not ready for government (50–30 previously).

In last week’s federal Morgan poll, conducted December 4–10 from a sample of 1,719, Labor led by 51–49, unchanged since the previous week. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down 0.5), 30.5% Labor (down two), 14% Greens (up 1.5), 5% One Nation (steady), 7.5% independents (down one) and 6% others (up two).

I covered a federal Resolve poll two weeks ago that still gave Labor a large lead. Voters were told net migration to Australia was about 160,000 per year before COVID, but fell to negligible levels during the pandemic. To make up for this, it increased to 184,000 last year and was over 400,000 this year.

On this level of immigration, 62% thought it too high, 23% about right and 3% too low. On next year’s expected 260,000 net migration, 55% said too high, 25% about right and 5% too low. By 57–16, voters thought the government was handling immigration in an unplanned and unmanaged way rather than a carefully planned and managed way.

Victorian Resolve poll: Labor far ahead

A Victorian state Resolve poll for The Age, conducted with the federal November and December Resolve polls from a sample of 1,093, gave Labor 37% of the primary vote (down two since October), the Coalition 31% (down one), the Greens 11% (down one), independents 14% (up four) and others 6% (down one).

Resolve doesn’t give a two party estimate until near elections, but analyst Kevin Bonham estimated a Labor lead by 56.5–43.5, a one-point gain for the Coalition since October. Resolve’s federal polls have been far better for Labor than other polls.

New Labor Premier Jacinta Allan’s lead as preferred premier over Liberal leader John Pesutto narrowed to 34–22 from 38–19 in October. By 57–22, voters thought students should attend school and protest outside school time, rather than miss school for rallies.

Annastacia Palaszczuk resigns

On December 10, Queensland Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk announced she would resign as premier at the end of last week, and as Member for Inala by the end of this year. A byelection will be needed in Inala, which Palaszczuk won by 78.2–21.8 against the Liberal Nationals in 2020.

Steven Miles replaced Palaszczuk as Labor leader and premier last Friday after he was elected unopposed by Labor MPs.

Palaszczuk has been premier since leading Labor to a surprise victory at the 2015 state election, but she has become increasingly unpopular. I wrote two weeks ago that Labor is likely to lose the next election due in October 2024.

WA Redbridge poll: Labor has huge lead

The next Western Australian state election is in March 2025. A Redbridge poll was reported by The Poll Bludger on Saturday. It gave Labor a 59.4–40.6 lead, from primary votes of 44% Labor, 29% Liberals, 4% Nationals, 11% Greens, 3% One Nation and 9% for all Others. This would be a 10% swing to the Liberals from the record 2021 Labor landslide, but it’s still a huge lead for Labor.

The federal WA Redbridge poll gave Labor a 55.2–44.8 lead, unchanged from the 2922 federal WA result of 55.0–45.0 to Labor. The sample size was 1,200.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Labor regains lead in Newspoll after tie, but Freshwater has a 50–50 tie – https://theconversation.com/labor-regains-lead-in-newspoll-after-tie-but-freshwater-has-a-50-50-tie-219404

Israel-Hamas war: a ceasefire is now in sight. Will Israel’s prime minister agree?

By The Conversation -

December 18, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Parmeter, Research Scholar, Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, Australian National University

The mistaken killing of three Israeli hostages by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) at the weekend has substantially increased pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire in the war against Hamas.

The Biden administration is exerting maximum pressure to convince the Israeli government that the downsides of its prosecution of the war, particularly the shockingly high Palestinian civilian death toll, now outweigh the potential gains.

During a visit to Israel earlier this month, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Netanyahu and his cabinet they would have to end the offensive by the new year.

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan visited Israel on the weekend to deliver the same message, emphasising that the US wanted to see results on its demands to Israel to avoid civilian casualties in Gaza.

Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin is currently on a trip to the Middle East, including a stopover in Israel to discuss the “eventual cessation of high-intensity ground operations and air strikes”.

Earlier in the month, Austin warned that Israel’s killing of Palestinian civilians risked driving them into the arms of the enemy – replacing “a tactical victory with a strategic defeat”.

Finally President Joe Biden, who won enormous kudos in Israel for his visit in the immediate aftermath of the Hamas attacks on October 7, has publicly warned that Israel’s “indiscriminate bombing” of Gaza is losing it international support.

The US, if not Israel (which regards the UN as biased against it) will be concerned at the UN General Assembly vote on December 12 demanding a ceasefire. Though the resolution is non-enforceable, the large majority – 153 of the 190 members – was a clear indication of growing international opposition to the war.

The majority in favour of a similar resolution in October was 120. The US stood out as the only UN Security Council member to vote against the December resolution.

Israeli forces credibility reduced

To underline these messages, a leaked US intelligence assessment has claimed 40-45% of the 29,000 air-to-surface ground munitions Israel has used in Gaza have been “dumb” (unguided) bombs. This disclosure effectively undercuts the Israel Defense Force’s claim that its strikes have been only at proven Hamas targets.

Details of the accidental killing of the three hostages, as they have emerged at the weekend, further reduce the credibility of the Israeli forces’ claims to be operating with full regard to international humanitarian law. The three were holding a white cloth, had their hands in the air and were calling to the soldiers in Hebrew.

An Israeli Defense Force official has said the case was “against our rules of engagement” and an investigation was happening at the “highest level”.

The tragedy has given renewed impetus to the campaign by families of the more than 100 remaining hostages and their numerous supporters. They want the government to prioritise negotiations for the release of the captives over the war against Hamas. Demonstrations took place in Tel Aviv after news of the three hostages’ deaths.

So far Netanyahu and his Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, are holding firm that the operation to destroy Hamas must continue. Gallant has said that only intense military pressure on Hamas will create conditions for release of more hostages.

Netanyahu likely to continue the conflict

Netanyahu has a number of reasons for continuing the war.

In the inevitable postwar inquiry into the security lapses that led to the horrific Hamas attack on October 7, major blame is certain be laid on him. That inquiry won’t be held while the war proceeds.

But Netanyahu will be aware that his only chance of avoiding the sort of withering criticism that would force him from office is to make good on his pledge to totally eliminate Hamas, and to find and recover the remaining hostages. That will take much more time than Biden seems willing to allow him.

Unfortunately for Netanyahu, he cannot yet claim victory on the basis of decapitating the Hamas leadership. The movement’s political ruler in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, and its military leader, Mohammed Deif, are still at large. They’re probably somewhere in the vast tunnel network beneath Gaza. If Israel were to capture or kill these two, Netanyahu would be able to claim substantial vindication.

The Biden administration’s pressure is of less concern to Netanyahu. He is practised at staring down US presidents, particularly Democratic ones. In 2009 he defied President Barack Obama’s call for a freeze on settlement building in the West Bank.

In 2015 he even breached protocol by accepting a Republican invitation to visit Washington to address a joint sitting of Congress without calling on Obama.

Within Israel, Netanyahu is helped by the fact that Israelis have only a partial picture of the human toll their country’s campaign is having on Palestinian civilians.

The ABC Global Affairs Editor, John Lyons, who was based in Jerusalem for many years and understands Hebrew, reported after a recent visit to Israel:

[…] most Israelis do not see pictures (on their televisions) of injured Palestinian women and children or the destruction of Gaza into kilometre after kilometre of rubble […] Israelis are watching a sanitised war […] They are bewildered at why the world is increasingly uncomfortable at the high civilian casualty rate.

Resumption of hostage negotiations

That said, Netanyahu has bowed to the hostages lobby by reversing a decision that the head of Mossad, David Barnea, should cease negotiations in Qatar for more hostage releases. Barnea met Qatar’s prime minister in Europe last week. No details were available at time of writing.

But Hamas continues to make demands that Israel would find hard to accept: no further hostage releases until the war ends; and insistence that a deal would involve release of large numbers of Palestinian prisoners, including high-profile militants.

In the background, a worry for both Israel and the US is that support for Hamas has risen substantially in the West Bank since the war started.

Polling between November 22 and December 2 by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research indicated that backing for Hamas had risen from 12% in September to 44% at the beginning of December. This is shown also in the number of green Hamas flags in evidence when Palestinian prisoners were freed during the pauses in fighting in late November.

The polling even showed that support for Hamas in Gaza over the same period had risen from 38% to 42%.

Netanyahu may get lucky if his forces find Sinwar and Deif. In the meantime, a decision on continuation of the war rests with him.

Ian Parmeter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Israel-Hamas war: a ceasefire is now in sight. Will Israel’s prime minister agree? – https://theconversation.com/israel-hamas-war-a-ceasefire-is-now-in-sight-will-israels-prime-minister-agree-219958

North Queensland’s record-breaking floods are a frightening portent of what’s to come under climate change

By The Conversation -

December 18, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steve Turton, Adjunct Professor of Environmental Geography, CQUniversity Australia

Unprecedented rain brought by Tropical Cyclone Jasper has triggered widespread flooding in far north Queensland, forcing thousands of people to evacuate. Cairns airport is closed, roads are extensively damaged and residents in the city’s northern beaches are cut off by floodwaters.

Some rain gauges in the Barron and Daintree River catchments recorded more than 2m of rain over recent days, and more rain is expected. Water levels in the lower Barron River have smashed the previous record set by devastating floods in March 1977. On Monday morning, the Daintree River was more than 2m higher than the previous 118-year-old flood level, recorded in 2019.

The full impacts of the flood are not yet clear. But there’s likely to be significant damage to properties and public infrastructure, and negative effects for industries such as tourism and agriculture. Recovery is likely to take many months.

So let’s take a closer look at what caused this emergency – and what to expect as climate change worsens.

A ‘sweet spot’ for torrential rain

Tropical Cyclone Jasper crossed the coast north of Cairns on Wednesday last week, tracking over the remote Indigenous community of Wujal Wujal. Damage from wind and storm surge was minimal, but Jasper still produced more than 800mm of rain across the Daintree and Mossman River catchments.

Late Wednesday, the cyclone was downgraded to a tropical low. It crossed southern Cape York Peninsula and headed towards the Gulf of Carpentaria. By Friday, local tourism agencies and operators announced they were back in business, inviting visitors back to the region.

However, by Saturday morning, a significant rainfall and flood emergency was unfolding across a 360 kilometre swathe from Cooktown to Ingham. So what happened?

The ex-cyclone stalled just inland from the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria, creating a sweet spot for torrential rain known as a “stationary convergence zone”. Incredibly moist tropical winds collided over a narrow zone between Port Douglas and Innisfail. This effect converged with northerly winds from the Gulf of Carpentaria and southeast trade winds from the Coral Sea. Local mountain ranges created extra uplift. All this led to non-stop torrential rain for 48 hours.

As a result, an emergency situation rapidly grew across Cairns and the Barron River delta to its immediate north.

Townsville floods: similar but different

This extreme flood event bears some similarity to that which caused significant damage to Townsville in February 2019. Both were associated with a stationary convergence zone caused by a stalled tropical low located to their northwest. In the case of Townsville, the tropical low did not budge for more than ten days. In that time, Townsville received the equivalent of a year’s average rainfall.

Otherwise, the two events are very different.

Firstly, the Townsville floods occurred during a neutral year – that is, in the absence of the climate drivers La Niña and El Niño. But the current flood event has occurred during an El Niño, when tropical cyclones are much less likely to occur in the Australian region, especially in early December.

Secondly, the deep tropical low that caused the 2019 Townsville floods was embedded in an active monsoon trough, which sucked in very moist equatorial air from Indonesia. But unusually, Cyclone Jasper did not form in such conditions. The monsoon trough is still to appear and form over northern Australia.

What’s climate change got to do with it?

As 2023 closes as the warmest year on record, there is growing global concern about the rise of extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and heatwaves.

The atmosphere and oceans are warming due to increasing emissions of greenhouse gases, largely caused by burning fossil fuels. This has led to a greater risk of extreme rainfall and flooding, such as the events we’re seeing now in far north Queensland.

For every 1°C rise in average global temperature, the atmosphere can hold an extra 7% water vapour. When the right atmospheric “triggers” are in place, this extra water vapour is released as intense rainfall.

It’s too soon to attribute the current extreme rain and flooding to climate change. But as the world continues to warm, such events will become more frequent and severe.

Already, extreme flood events globally are becoming more regular and their magnitude is breaking many long-term rainfall and river flood records.

Looking ahead

Once the immediate crisis in North Queensland has subsided, local and state authorities will need to grapple with how to deal with the “new normal” of extreme weather events. The big question is: are they prepared?

Since the big Barron River flood in March 1977, considerable residential and commercial development has been permitted across the river’s floodplain. In many cases, these earlier developments were approved without full consideration of future floods. Many were also approved before local government planning started taking sea level rise into consideration.

The wider Cairns community will recover from this extreme event and will hopefully take on board any problems identified in the emergency responses. In future, emergency planning must take the effects of climate change more seriously. This includes increases in sea level, and more intense tropical cyclones, storm surges, rainfall and flooding.

As of this month, a climate emergency had been declared in 2,351 jurisdictions and local government areas around the world. As a result, many jurisdictions have developed response plans. In Australia, local governments should recognise climate change threats and risks by formally declaring a climate emergency.

Steve Turton has previously received funding from the Australian government.

– ref. North Queensland’s record-breaking floods are a frightening portent of what’s to come under climate change – https://theconversation.com/north-queenslands-record-breaking-floods-are-a-frightening-portent-of-whats-to-come-under-climate-change-220039

A long-dead soprano has taken to the stage with the Melbourne Symphony Orchestra. Are holograms the future?

By The Conversation -

December 18, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shelley Brunt, Associate professor, Music Industry, RMIT University

I was recently among a curious Melbourne audience who turned out to see a hologram of the long-dead soprano Maria Callas singing with the Melbourne Symphony Orchestra.

The stage was moodily lit, with 30 musicians in shadows. Loud reverberating footsteps foreshadowed Callas’ entrance and indicated potential humanness. When she eventually appeared centre stage, the audience gasped. Ripples of laughter followed when she and conductor Daniel Schlosberg played out a manufactured exchange of acknowledgement.

The Callas hits were performed, from Bellini’s Casta Diva from Norma to Bizet’s L’amour est un oiseau rebelle from Carmen. But there were limitations to the success. While the live orchestral sounds filled Hamer Hall, the vocals were clearly directed from the speakers, rather than the hologram at centre stage.

I felt an uncomfortable silence lingering before and after each song. The Callas hologram delayed the momentum. She bowed, inviting the audience to clap again, and coyly berated the conductor when he started before she was ready. The audience waited, and it all seemed to drag on.

This is one of the limitations of combining live music and a pre-recorded voice: you can’t respond to the temperament of the audience. You can’t speed it up when required.

Those seated around me did not seem to share my concerns. A version of Callas – the woman known as La Divina, “the divine one” – had been digitally resurrected, and that was enough for now.

Hologram performances across the world

The audience was never fooled by the technology. Instead, they were awe-struck. A phrase I heard murmured over and over was: “how do they do it?”.

“They” are BASE Xperiential, an American media company which also created Roy Orbison, Buddy Holly and Whitney Houston holograms.

But the “how” part of the question can be complex. In simple terms, holograms are created when laser lights project a 3D video of a person onto a transparent yet reflective surface, such as a screen. The projected figure lip-syncs to existing vocal recordings, and the live musicians play along.

This is not a unique phenomenon.

Callas in Concert has been performed across the world since 2018. Tupac performed beyond the grave at Coachella in 2012. Elvis Presley duetted posthumously with Celine Dion in front of a studio audience for American Idol in 2007. A hologram of the beloved Taiwanese superstar Teresa Teng recently toured Asia.

Artists who are still living are also creating hologram concerts.
Performance-shy ABBA can now get back on stage via avatars of their 1979 selves for their lucrative show Voyage. Earlier this month, KISS wound up their final live tour and announced they “have been immortalised and reborn as avatars to rock forever” in digital form.

A living legacy

Are hologram concerts a good thing? They are for performers. Possibly.

A hologram can continue to tour long after a singer’s physical body has expired. It keeps them in the public imagination – after all, a star’s image is contingent upon public awareness – and continues to be a lucrative source of income for the copyright holder.

Unlike people, holograms can be in many places at the one time, and aren’t restricted by travel. Artists can perform with their holographic peers such as Coldplay’s 2021 collaboration with BTW holograms for their single My Universe on The Voice finale.

For audiences, the benefits are significant.

As the brother of Teresa Teng noted, hologram performances are also moments of nostalgia for those who want just one more gig.

A hologram performance might be the only way you can see a performer who died before you were born, or see a star who never toured Australia, or see a dream line-up of artists who never performed together.

But audience reactions are mixed.

I conducted a study with a colleague from the Kyoto University of the Arts, asking Japanese audiences their responses to AI Hibari, an AI deep learning hologram of Misora Hibari, who died in 1986.

This hologram replicated her fashion style, musical timing, unique vocal techniques and performance gestures, and performed several songs the real Hibari never did, including Let it Go from Frozen.

While some audience members at the Tokyo performances were visibly moved to tears, others said the hologram was “profaning the dead”, manipulating the memory of the real Hibari, and posing an existential threat to the live music industry.

Where to next?

Audiences have high expectations for digital images. Poor-quality holograms fall into the “uncanny valley” – that point when we feel revulsion because they are not quite human.

We’re sceptical about how the images of the dead are used. They have no say or recourse of action. What if Maria Callas never wanted to be performing as a hologram decades after her death?

We’re cynical about greedy copyright holders and gatekeepers in the music industry. Who is making the money from hologram performances? In death, control and power have shifted away from the singer.

And we’re worried about overreach. The enormous progress of AI and the growing public acceptance of virtual singers means more hologram performances will grace our concert halls. And they will be singing songs that they never performed when they were alive.

Holograms have been around for a long time, and I think they are here to stay in spite of these ethical dilemmas. Even though holograms are inherently gimmicky, inquisitive audiences will still flock to see the latest technological developments in music performance. And judging from the appreciative crowd at the Callas concert, the thrill of seeing La Divina again overrides any human concerns.

Shelley Brunt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. A long-dead soprano has taken to the stage with the Melbourne Symphony Orchestra. Are holograms the future? – https://theconversation.com/a-long-dead-soprano-has-taken-to-the-stage-with-the-melbourne-symphony-orchestra-are-holograms-the-future-219716

Housing and the Albanese government: a mid-term report card

By The Conversation -

December 18, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hal Pawson, Professor of Housing Research and Policy, and Associate Director, City Futures Research Centre, UNSW Sydney

The Albanese government can justly claim to have reasserted Commonwealth leadership on housing since its election in 2022. Media attention has focused mainly on the legislative stoush with the Greens over the Housing Australia Future Fund. But that’s only one element of a raft of initiatives from Canberra over this time.

Many Australians have recently felt the impact of sharply rising rent and mortgage payments as household numbers and interest rates surged in the post-COVID period. However, several fundamental and enduring housing problems have been escalating for decades. These include:

home ownership becoming less affordable
private rental housing receding beyond the reach of low-income households
increasingly scarce and deteriorating social housing.

To seriously confront these challenges, the government will need to expand its initiatives and tackle reforms of taxes and regulations, which it has avoided to date.

Tackling housing on 4 fronts

The government’s commitments so far can be largely broken down into four policy themes.

1. Direct assistance for low-income groups

The Housing Australia Future Fund is the largest initiative in this area. The goal is to fund 30,000 new social and affordable homes over five years.

Under the National Housing Accord, another 10,000 affordable rental homes are funded over this period.

However, the unmet need for social and affordable housing exceeds 600,000 units, so these targets remain modest.

Also in the direct assistance category is the May budget’s one-off 15% boost to Commonwealth Rent Assistance. While accurately claimed as “the largest increase in more than 30 years”, maximum payments remain far below market rents. As economist Bruce Bradbury argued, the increase should have been 100%.

These initiatives are significant contributions to relieving rental stress when compared to the previous decade of federal inaction. However, that is a low bar.

2. Direct assistance to first-home buyers

This batch of measures includes expansion of the Coalition-established low-deposit mortgage scheme, now branded the First Home Guarantee. Qualifying first-home buyers can secure a home loan with a down-payment of only 5% of property value – rather than the standard 20% deposit.

There’s also the government’s Help to Buy proposal. Under this shared-equity model, government takes a 30-40% interest in a dwelling acquired by a qualifying home buyer. The buyer’s home loan and equity contribution are much smaller as a result.

But the government may battle to secure Senate approval for this scheme. The Coalition opposes it, saying first-home buyers will dislike the idea of “[having Anthony] Albanese at the kitchen table with you, owning part of your home”. The Greens have queried the workability of proposed scheme rules.

3. Boosting housing supply

The main push here has been the National Housing Accord agreed with state governments and others in late 2022. Signatories must do their best to enable construction of at least 1 million homes – and up to 1.2 million – from 2024 to 2029. This would increase current construction rates by about a third, so it’s a challenging target.

The modest federal investment in social and affordable homes supports the accord aspirations.

More importantly, A$3 billion in new federal funding for the New Home Bonus aims to “incentivise states and territories to undertake the reforms necessary to boost housing supply and increase housing affordability”. This approach appears to emulate recent efforts in the UK and Canada.

It remains to be seen if this will work in Australia. There is reason to be sceptical about any strategy to make housing more affordable based on the belief that “inadequate” supply is largely due to planning restrictions. The main consideration for private developers and their financial backers is expected market conditions when newly built homes are to be sold.

If the prime minister is serious about achieving his government’s targets, he may need to consider more direct government involvement in housing production. Much greater social housing investment would be needed in any case to genuinely address the scale of unmet need. He might even contemplate a union-sponsored proposal to use a corporate super-profits tax to fund massively stepped-up social housing construction.

Equally, state and territory governments could look to revive the state-commissioned build-for-sale programs of the 1950s and 1960s. That is, homes built for sale at cost price on land owned by government or acquired for the purpose under compulsory powers.

4. Institutional reform

Fragmented and inadequate policymaking capacity bears much of the blame for Australia’s weak record on housing in recent decades.

In response, the Albanese government has to its credit set up an expert panel, the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council, and a national housing agency, Housing Australia. However, Housing Australia has been designated as purely a delivery agency with no policymaking remit. This seems highly questionable – especially as the housing minister lacks her own department of government.

Even more concerning are indications that the proposed National Housing and Homelessness Plan may fall far short of providing a fit-for-purpose rationale for the government’s post-2022 initiatives and, more importantly, a meaningful framework for the much more ambitious reforms Australia badly needs.

A promising start, but can do better

In the first half of its term, the Albanese government made progress on almost all its election pledges on housing. It also brought forward other notable initiatives. This activity corresponds quite well with key dimensions of Australia’s multi-faceted housing challenge.

At the same time, announced measures are somewhat disparate and many are extremely modest alongside the scale of these problems. To make a real difference, they will need to be expanded and extended over a longer time. They must be complemented by tax and regulatory reforms as yet eschewed.

If the measures to date prove to be a down payment on ambitious and purposeful future action, they may come to be seen as significant. If not, policy analysts of the 2030s will deem them of little importance.

This article draws on a fuller housing policy paper published in a special issue of the Journal of Australian Political Economy along with mid-term assessments of the Albanese government’s performance across a range of other policy areas.

Hal Pawson receives research funding from the Australian Research Council, from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, from Queensland Council of Social Service, from the Lord Mayor’s Charitable Fund, City of Melbourne, and from Crisis UK. He is also a non-Exec Director at Community Housing Canberra and a part-time unpaid advisor to ACT Senator David Pocock.

– ref. Housing and the Albanese government: a mid-term report card – https://theconversation.com/housing-and-the-albanese-government-a-mid-term-report-card-219389

Data poisoning: how artists are sabotaging AI to take revenge on image generators

By The Conversation -

December 18, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By T.J. Thomson, Senior Lecturer in Visual Communication & Digital Media, RMIT University

Imagine this. You need an image of a balloon for a work presentation and turn to a text-to-image generator, like Midjourney or DALL-E, to create a suitable image.

You enter the prompt: “red balloon against a blue sky” but the generator returns an image of an egg instead. You try again but this time, the generator shows an image of a watermelon.

What’s going on?

The generator you’re using may have been “poisoned”.

What is ‘data poisoning’?

Text-to-image generators work by being trained on large datasets that include millions or billions of images. Some generators, like those offered by Adobe or Getty, are only trained with images the generator’s maker owns or has a licence to use.

But other generators have been trained by indiscriminately scraping online images, many of which may be under copyright. This has led to a slew of copyright infringement cases where artists have accused big tech companies of stealing and profiting from their work.

This is also where the idea of “poison” comes in. Researchers who want to empower individual artists have recently created a tool named “Nightshade” to fight back against unauthorised image scraping.

The tool works by subtly altering an image’s pixels in a way that wreaks havoc to computer vision but leaves the image unaltered to a human’s eyes.

If an organisation then scrapes one of these images to train a future AI model, its data pool becomes “poisoned”. This can result in the algorithm mistakenly learning to classify an image as something a human would visually know to be untrue. As a result, the generator can start returning unpredictable and unintended results.

Symptoms of poisoning

As in our earlier example, a balloon might become an egg. A request for an image in the style of Monet might instead return an image in the style of Picasso.

Some of the issues with earlier AI models, such as trouble accurately rendering hands, for example, could return. The models could also introduce other odd and illogical features to images – think six-legged dogs or deformed couches.

The higher the number of “poisoned” images in the training data, the greater the disruption. Because of how generative AI works, the damage from “poisoned” images also affects related prompt keywords.

For example, if a “poisoned” image of a Ferrari is used in training data, prompt results for other car brands and for other related terms, such as vehicle and automobile, can also be affected.

Nightshade’s developer hopes the tool will make big tech companies more respectful of copyright, but it’s also possible users could abuse the tool and intentionally upload “poisoned” images to generators to try and disrupt their services.

Is there an antidote?

In response, stakeholders have proposed a range of technological and human solutions. The most obvious is paying greater attention to where input data are coming from and how they can be used. Doing so would result in less indiscriminate data harvesting.

This approach does challenge a common belief among computer scientists: that data found online can be used for any purpose they see fit.

Other technological fixes also include the use of “ensemble modeling” where different models are trained on many different subsets of data and compared to locate specific outliers. This approach can be used not only for training but also to detect and discard suspected “poisoned” images.

Audits are another option. One audit approach involves developing a “test battery” – a small, highly curated, and well-labelled dataset – using “hold-out” data that are never used for training. This dataset can then be used to examine the model’s accuracy.

Strategies against technology

So-called “adversarial approaches” (those that degrade, deny, deceive, or manipulate AI systems), including data poisoning, are nothing new. They have also historically included using make-up and costumes to circumvent facial recognition systems.

Human rights activists, for example, have been concerned for some time about the indiscriminate use of machine vision in wider society. This concern is particularly acute concerning facial recognition.

Systems like Clearview AI, which hosts a massive searchable database of faces scraped from the internet, are used by law enforcement and government agencies worldwide. In 2021, Australia’s government determined Clearview AI breached the privacy of Australians.

In response to facial recognition systems being used to profile specific individuals, including legitimate protesters, artists devised adversarial make-up patterns of jagged lines and asymmetric curves that prevent surveillance systems from accurately identifying them.

There is a clear connection between these cases and the issue of data poisoning, as both relate to larger questions around technological governance.

Many technology vendors will consider data poisoning a pesky issue to be fixed with technological solutions. However, it may be better to see data poisoning as an innovative solution to an intrusion on the fundamental moral rights of artists and users.

T.J. Thomson receives funding from the Australian Research Council through DE230101233 ‘Addressing the Crisis of Local Visual News in Regional and Remote Australia’, DP210100859 ‘Amplifying Voices from the Royal Commission into Aged Care’, and LP220100208 ‘Addressing Misinformation with Media Literacy through Cultural Institutions’. He is an affiliate with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision Making & Society, CE200100005.

Daniel Angus receives funding from the Australian Research Council through Discovery Projects DP200100519 ‘Using machine vision to explore Instagram’s everyday promotional cultures’, DP200101317 ‘Evaluating the Challenge of ‘Fake News’ and Other Malinformation’, and Linkage Project LP190101051 ‘Young Australians and the Promotion of Alcohol on Social Media’. He is a Chief Investigator with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision Making & Society, CE200100005.

– ref. Data poisoning: how artists are sabotaging AI to take revenge on image generators – https://theconversation.com/data-poisoning-how-artists-are-sabotaging-ai-to-take-revenge-on-image-generators-219335

What we don’t understand about China’s actions and ambitions in the South China Sea

By The Conversation -

December 18, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Edward Sing Yue Chan, Postdoctoral Fellow in China Studies, Australian National University

In recent weeks, China’s activities in the South China Sea have raised more concerns in the region. Its ships have collided with Filipino vessels, fired water cannon at others and used sonar pulses close to an Australian ship, injuring its divers.

The United States and its allies view this increasingly assertive behaviour as evidence China seeks to challenge the established maritime order, marking it as a “revisionist” power.

The US and its allies have a fairly straightforward view on the South China Sea. They believe these should be open waters accessible to all states and Southeast Asian countries should be able to enjoy their rights to their exclusive economic zones along their shorelines.

But how does China perceive its rights and legitimacy in governing the South China Sea? And how does it view the broader maritime order? Understanding this viewpoint is crucial to deciphering China’s actions in the ongoing disputes in the sea.

An evolving approach to the South China Sea

China’s approach to disputes in the South China Sea and East China Sea has been guided by the same principle since the country began opening up in the 1980s. The policy, established by former leader Deng Xiaoping, said China would “set aside sovereignty disputes and seek joint development” in the seas.

This principle took as a given Chinese sovereignty over the waters. Chinese policy elites expected other countries would recognise this sovereignty when engaging in joint development projects with China, such as offshore gas fields. Moreover, they insisted participating nations agree to set aside disputes in favour of common interests.

But this approach, seen by Chinese scholars and some within the government as a step back from China’s sovereignty claims in exchange for economic gains, did not yield anticipated results.

In the 2000s, Chinese scholars recognised a growing gap in expectations. They noted that engaging in joint development projects did not necessarily build confidence or create closer ties between China and other claimants to the seas.

They argued other nations had taken advantage of China’s step-back policy to assert their own claims, undermining China’s legitimacy to its own sovereignty over the waters.

The surge in great power competition between China and the US in recent years further complicated the situation. This prompted Beijing to address China’s maritime claims more urgently as public opinion turned increasingly assertive, fuelling resentment of the US over the South China Sea.

China turns more assertive

A significant turning point came in 2012 with a stand-off between the Philippines navy and Chinese fishing vessels in the Scarborough Shoal. The shoal lies about 200 kilometres (124 miles) off the Philippines coast and inside its exclusive economic zone. China seized the shoal and the Philippines launched a case with the Permanent Court of Arbitration.

This marked a shift in Chinese rhetoric about its approach to maritime claims and set the stage for the conflicts we’ve seen in the South China Sea since then.

From the Chinese perspective, it has been essential to reassert the country’s sovereignty and jurisdiction in the region.

To achieve this, Beijing has pursued actions to “rule the sea by law”. This has involved extensive land reclamation projects on atolls (which China was reluctant to do under former leader Hu Jintao), the strengthening of China’s coast guard, regular patrols of the sea, and reforms to domestic maritime laws.

Chinese intellectuals justify these actions based on two principles.

First, they argue China has historic rights to govern much of the South China Sea based on the nine-dash line, making the implementation of domestic laws in the area legitimate.

Second, aligning with the Communist Party’s directive of “ruling the country by law”, these measures ensure clear laws and regulations are in place to govern China’s maritime domain. They strengthen China’s jurisdiction over the contested seas, justifying its steps to build military facilities on islands there.

These activities have been very controversial and have faced international legal challenges. Merely imposing domestic laws and regulations does not automatically legitimise China’s maritime claims and interests.

After China rejected the arbitration tribunal ruling against it in the case brought by the Philippines, the perception in much of the world was that Beijing was violating international laws.

Within China, however, this rejection solidified a consensus among policy elites that the current maritime order was “unfair”.

A ‘fair and reasonable’ maritime order

In response, China has sought to garner international support for its claims and, more broadly, its worldview.

To do this, Beijing has promoted the establishment of a “fair and reasonable” maritime order. China’s 14th Five-Year Plan explicitly outlines this goal in 2021, as part of an overarching goal of creating a maritime “Community of Common Destiny”。

This objective aligns primarily with the party’s view, much trumpeted by President Xi Jinping, of the “rise of the East and decline of the West”. The aim is to shift the existing maritime order from one dominated by the West to one based on what Beijing calls “true multilateralism”.

With its “Community of Common Destiny”, China is promoting itself as a global leader in ocean governance and suggesting what it deems a better alternative. This narrative, according to Beijing, has gained support in the Global South.

Bending rules to its advantage

Western strategists often label China a revisionist force challenging the established international order. However, such a characterisation oversimplifies China’s ambitions in ocean governance.

China does not appear intent on preserving or altering the established order. Instead, Beijing has demonstrated a propensity to bend specific rules within the existing framework to align with its interests, using its institutional influence.

Because these international rules lack a uniform understanding around the world, China is adept at navigating the grey areas.

Ultimately, China aims to dominate the existing maritime governance agreements and treaties, allowing it to impose its own agenda and safeguard its maritime rights and interests. Of course, not all countries view China’s ambitions favourably. The Philippines and Vietnam, in particular, oppose China’s unilateral statements on the South China Sea, perceiving them as assertions of regional hegemony.

I’m not seeking to justify China’s actions here, but rather to provide insight into the internal perspectives driving its actions.

China’s influence in ocean governance is clearly on the rise. Western powers and China’s neighbours need to better understand Beijing’s approach in expanding its maritime interests because future relations in the South China Sea depend on it.

Edward Sing Yue Chan is affiliated with Australian Centre on China in the World, Australian National University.

– ref. What we don’t understand about China’s actions and ambitions in the South China Sea – https://theconversation.com/what-we-dont-understand-about-chinas-actions-and-ambitions-in-the-south-china-sea-216068

Is it OK to take antidepressants while pregnant?

By The Conversation -

December 18, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alka Kothari, Associate Professor, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Queensland

Mental health conditions including anxiety and depression are among the most common disorders affecting women during pregnancy and after birth.

Evidence shows mental health conditions in pregnancy increase the risk of complications for the mother and baby.

However, there is some stigma around taking antidepressants while pregnant or breastfeeding. So how should women decide whether or not to take antidepressants during these periods?

Mental health in pregnancy and after birth

Untreated anxiety and depression in pregnancy have been linked to an increased risk of stillbirth, premature birth, low birth weight and low APGAR scores (a test done at birth to check the baby’s health in various domains).

In addition, anxiety or depression during pregnancy may lead to increased maternal weight gain, substance use or smoking. These lifestyle factors can also lead to complications for the baby.

Anxiety and depression during and after pregnancy can affect bonding between mother and baby, and hinder the child’s behavioural and emotional development.

Meanwhile, complications in the pregnancy may worsen mental health symptoms for the mother.

Not coping during pregnancy and especially after giving birth is demoralising and puts women at risk of self-harm. Suicide is a leading cause of maternal death in Australia in the year after giving birth.

Treatment options

Depending on the severity of symptoms, treatment options for women during and after pregnancy range from social and emotional support (for example, support groups) to psychological interventions (such as cognitive behavioural therapy) to medical treatments (for example, antidepressants).

Understandably, many women are reluctant to take medications during pregnancy and while breastfeeding due to concerns the drugs may cross over to the baby and cause complications. Historical instances such as the use of thalidomide for morning sickness, which resulted in severe structural abnormalities in thousands of children, naturally make pregnant women worried.

Robust evidence about medication use in pregnancy is lacking. This may be due to ethical limitations around trialling medications in pregnant women. The limited data available, mainly from observational studies on selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors (SNRIs), the most commonly prescribed antidepressants during pregnancy, has mixed results.

While some studies have reported no noticeable increase in the risk of congenital malformations, evidence has shown a marginal rise in abnormalities such as heart defetcs (an extra two cases per 1,000 babies with SSRIs).

Collaborative decisions

There is a delicate balance to strike between treating the mother and preventing harm to the baby. To make well-informed decisions, an open discussion between the patient and specialised mental health care providers on the benefits and risks of starting or continuing antidepressants is essential.

Given the mother’s poor mental health increases the risk of adverse outcomes for the baby, it may well be that taking antidepressants is the best way to protect the baby.

For women already taking antidepressants, it’s not usually necessary to stop using them during pregnancy. Sudden cessation of antidepressants increases the risk of relapse.

Continuing breastfeeding on antidepressants is likely the best decision because of the low levels of drugs infants are exposed to in breast milk, the advantages of breastfeeding for the baby, and the risks of not taking antidepressants when indicated.

Recently revised guidelines on mental health care in the perinatal period (during pregnancy and after birth) warn health professionals against the dangers of failing to prescribe necessary medication:

Be aware that failure to use medication where indicated for depression and/or anxiety in pregnancy or postnatally may affect mother-infant interaction, parenting, mental health and wellbeing and infant outcomes.

These guidelines also recommend repeated screening for symptoms of depression and anxiety for all women during the perinatal period. This is crucial to providing women with an early referral to perinatal mental health services if needed.

At present, mental health conditions during pregnancy and after birth often go undetected and untreated.

A pregnant woman talks to a therapist. — There are a range of treatment options for perinatal anxiety and depression.
Pormezz/Shutterstock

Supporting perinatal mental health

Mental illness in pregnancy is a significant public health problem. Screening is not always delivered effectively, and currently, there is no national data regarding perinatal mental health screening service use or outcomes.

Mine and my colleagues’ research on pregnant women’s engagement with perinatal mental health services indicated only one-third of eligible women accepted a referral, and less than half attended their appointment. Women may be reluctant to engage due to stigma, time restraints, and lack of childcare or social support.

To address this, we should create strategies and resources in collaboration with pregnant women to identify solutions that work best for them. This might include assistance with childcare, access to telehealth, visits from a perinatal mental health professional, or written information on medications.

Care must be holistic and include partners who may be best placed to support pregnant women in making complex decisions. Health-care providers need to be respectful of individual needs and provide compassionate care to engage vulnerable mothers who may understandably feel uncertain regarding their options.

If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.

Alka Kothari does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Is it OK to take antidepressants while pregnant? – https://theconversation.com/is-it-ok-to-take-antidepressants-while-pregnant-218045

Private landholders control 60% of the Australian continent – so let’s get them involved in nature protection

By The Conversation -

December 18, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Benjamin J. Richardson, Professor of Environmental Law, University of Tasmania

As the federal government attempts a major overhaul of national environment law, all options must be on the table to prevent the fast deterioration in Australia’s natural places. And more than ever before, the efforts of private landholders should be front and centre.

About 60% of the continent is owned or managed privately – and 70% to 90% of inadequately protected wildlife is found mostly on such land, which includes farms, pastoral leases and mines.

But through what legal mechanism can private landholders be engaged in biodiversity conservation? A key tool, we believe, is a legally binding agreement known as a “conservation covenant”. Under such deals, a private landholder agrees to manage their land for conservation – mostly for altruistic reasons but sometimes in exchange for money or other incentives.

Conservation covenants have been used in Australia for many decades, to a limited extent. But with a few policy changes, they could play a bigger role in helping Australia meet ambitious global goals for conserving and restoring nature.

A once-in-a-generation chance

Many of Australia’s ecosystems are severely degraded. In 2020, the independent Samuel review found national laws were failing to protect our natural assets and the regime needed an overhaul. In response, the federal government released a “nature positive” plan. It’s currently consulting with key stakeholders on a major new law to enact the plan.

This once-in-a-generation law change provides an opportunity for the Commonwealth to stimulate action by private landholders. Not only would this improve the state of Australia’s environment, it would also help ensure we meet our international obligations. In 2022, Australia pledged to place 30% of the continent under conservation protection and start restoring 30% of degraded areas by 2030. But just a few years out from the deadline, we have a lot of work to do.

For example, only 22% of Australia’s landmass is currently protected. By 2030, about 61 million hectares must be added to the conservation estate if Australia is to meet its target.

Strong laws and policies are needed and conservation covenants offer a way forward for private land. A conservation covenant is a legally binding commitment landholders make to restrict how their property is used. Crucially, it binds not only current but future landholders, and operates in perpetuity.

aerial view of swamp and bushland — Walkers Swamp restoration reserve in Victoria is subject to a conservation covenant, managed by Nature Glenelg Trust.
Mark Bachman

The story so far

Covenants have been used occasionally to conserve bushland in Australia since the 1930s. Their use grew from the 1970s as states such as Victoria adapted covenants for conservation use. Some states created independent organisations, such as Victoria’s Trust for Nature, to negotiate covenants with landholders and help them manage their properties.

In Queensland, conservation covenants known as “nature refuges” exist on pastoral leasehold properties. Elsewhere, landowners have also used covenants to achieve wins for both nature and their business, such as Western Australia’s Balijup farm and Tasmania’s Huon Bush Retreats. In these cases, the covenants have helped protect natural values that boost agriculture or eco-tourism.

Despite their potential, covenants are currently reported as safeguarding only about 1% of the continent – and not necessarily those parts in greatest need of help. Change is needed.

How to improve covenant schemes

Much can be done to ensure conservation covenants do more of the heavy-lifting when it comes to environmental protection. In many cases, this should involve the Commonwealth collaborating with the states, which primarily regulate covenants.

The federal government is establishing a nature repair scheme which aims to encourage private spending on biodiversity projects. But the law underpinning the scheme is silent on the potential role of covenants. The law should promote covenants as a way to ensure nature repair efforts meet high legal standards. This would provide confidence to private investors that conservation gains will be made over the long term.

Many existing covenant agreements lack sufficient financial support for landholders, such as council rate rebates and assistance for pest control and fencing. Such support is needed to attract a wider range of landholders and to fund ongoing conservation and restoration work.

Existing covenants are generally used to protect high-value conservation land where ecosystems are healthy. Rarely are they used on degraded land needing restoration, such as overgrazed paddocks or former mining sites. Further refinement of covenants may be needed so they can accommodate restoration.

Map showing how covenanted land (highlighted in green overlay) is concentrated in forested and relatively healthy ecosystems but largely absent from farmed landscapes where restoration is most needed.
Land Information System Tasmania

Many landowners initially opt for a non-binding conservation commitment, such as the “Land for Wildlife” program running in several states. While such state-level programs have merit, in many cases, it’s important to support landowners to transition to a more robust tool, such as a covenant, to ensure the nature improvements have lasting impact.

One solution is for the states to offer a variety of covenants so landholders can choose the one that best fits them and their property. This includes offering covenants to sites undergoing active restoration. Victoria’s BushBank program, which combines payment for biodiversity and carbon values, is a promising step in the right direction. The question of how covenants might apply to Indigenous-owned land also must be considered.

In addition, climate change must be recognised as a key consideration when designing covenants. There’s no guarantee of protection for nature, even with a covenant, if climate change is ignored.

This means responsible bodies and landowners should be required to review and, if necessary, update management plans after bushfires, droughts and other significant climate-related events. And covenants should support lands already restored to become more climate-resilient, such as through planting more suitable vegetation.

The future of nature conservation in Australia must involve a much bigger role for private landholders. This includes the protection and management of high-quality native habitats as well as restoring degraded ecosystems.

Benjamin J. Richardson is a recipient of funding from the Australian Research Council. He is a member of the Tasmanian Independent Science Council and the Tasmanian Greens.

Afshin Akhtar-Khavari receives funding from the Australian Research Council through its Discovery Program.

James Fitzsimons is Senior Advisor, Global Protection Strategies with The Nature Conservancy, is a Councillor of the Biodiversity Council and a member of the Australian Land Conservation Alliance’s policy and government relations committee.

Phillipa McCormack is Vice President of the National Environmental Law Association. She has received funding from the Australian Research Council, and from the National Environmental Science Program for a project on legal arrangements for marine and coastal habitat restoration and nature based solutions.

Sarah Brugler is a recipient of an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship and funding from the Australian Research Council. She works part-time for the Biodiversity Council and is affiliated with the National Environmental Law Association. She previously worked as the in-house lawyer for Trust for Nature (Victoria).

– ref. Private landholders control 60% of the Australian continent – so let’s get them involved in nature protection – https://theconversation.com/private-landholders-control-60-of-the-australian-continent-so-lets-get-them-involved-in-nature-protection-217450

University isn’t right for everyone. Pushing young people to go can have devastating effects

By The Conversation -

December 18, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kristina Sincock, Researcher and Project Manager, University of Newcastle

Australian school students feel immense pressure to go to university, often at the exclusion of all other pathways, which can lead to devastating mental health effects.

That’s among the headline findings of our decade-long program of research on the aspirations and post-school trajectories of young Australians.

Our research, published today in the journal Educational Review, reveals the unintended consequences of government higher education policies, inadequate school career advice, and a wider public devaluing of the vocational education and training sector.

Our research

Since 2012, we’ve conducted one of the largest studies to date on the aspirations of Australian youth, involving more than 10,000 students in Years 3-12.

Recently, we followed up with 50 of these young people post-school to see where they ended up in terms of their career and educational pathways.

Our findings reveal some significant and, at times, devastating insights into how young Australians – particularly those from underrepresented backgrounds – have experienced the “push” towards higher education.

A crisp winter light falls upon the University of Sydney. — Not everyone needs to go to university.
Shutterstock

Pressure to attend university and the devaluing of TAFE

The young people in our research consistently said university was explicitly pushed as the only post-school pathway worth pursuing during their schooling. Other pathways were often deemed to be “not good enough”. One university graduate told us:

I think there’s quite a lot actually of […] pressure given, not from all teachers, but some teachers, to really go towards higher education […] I’d say I felt pressured as a group, or as like, as a generation […] I just think that was just an overarching expectation.

This pressure frustrated some students. Angus* fulfilled his dream of becoming a chef by training at TAFE and eventually working in a top restaurant in London. In his first interview in 2014 he described restaurants as a place he “fits in”.

However, he also told us he had been repeatedly told by his teachers that “cheffing’s a horrible job”:

Almost every teacher at my school wanted to push me into their career path, [and I was told], ‘You’re very smart […] you should go to uni’ [otherwise I] might not become successful […] They always pushed me towards university. Regardless of what my feelings were, to be honest, I never felt truly supported by my career adviser.

Limited career education in school

Young people also overwhelmingly said the career education provided at school was unhelpful, impersonal, and pushed them towards university.

Career guidance was mainly focused on achieving a high ATAR (university entrance rank), with one student describing how her career adviser spent “more time trying to calculate my ATAR than imparting actual advice”.

Alternative entry pathways into university often weren’t openly discussed or fully understood. Such pathways were often devalued in favour of achieving the best ATAR possible. One young person told us:

I think with the pressure in schools on ATARs and that sort of thing – and they have to put that pressure on because they want you to do well. But it sort of develops a stigma around, well, if I don’t do Year 11 and 12 […], then I can’t get into university, without [young people understanding] there’s actually [alternative] pathways.

Stress and poor mental health

Many young people therefore felt high levels of stress and poor mental health during the final years of high school and the beginning of university, with some “losing the plot” or feeling “burnt out”.

The most extreme mental ill health reported in our interviews was experienced by Dahlia, a young Indigenous woman.

When we first spoke to her in 2016, she was a high achieving Year 11 student with aspirations to become a criminal psychologist.

When we next spoke to her in 2021, she described how the pressure of Year 12 caused her to drop out of school. During this year, Dahlia had severe mental ill health and made an attempt to end her life.

She later completed a traineeship in early childhood and care, before entering university to study a combined degree in primary and early childhood teaching. Dahlia was eager for her experience to be a warning about the pressure and stress of Year 12 exams:

It was just a burn out, like, I was just so overwhelmed. I felt like I was so pressured to do the best and I felt like I wasn’t the best […] then I’d get anxiety about not being as good as everyone thinks I am […] that’s why I really wanted to do this interview, because I wanted to put it out there that high school is not the be all, end all […] getting that high [Year 12] mark isn’t the be all, end all.

A group of high school students look at a laptop. — Many young people feel high levels of stress during the final years of high school.
Shutterstock

Where to from here?

The pressure to attend university compounds stress and poor mental health for some young people. This isn’t surprising given the transition to adulthood is the peak period for the onset of mental disorders.

We must urgently address the limited career education available to students and the narrow version of success linked to Year 12 exams and the ATAR in schools and society.

This would involve:

providing adequate training and resources to schools and career advisers
raising the status of vocational education and careers; and
valuing alternative pathways to university, such as enabling programs.

A woman looks very stressed. — The pressure to attend university can compound stress.
Shutterstock

The Universities Accord (a major federal government-led review that seeks to “reimagine” higher education for the next 30 years) provides an opportunity to change the lives and trajectories of Australian students. Ensuring the higher education sector is fair and equitable is at the heart of this process.

Its interim report claims that “too few Australians are going to university.” This is based on estimates that more than 50% of new jobs in the next five years will require a university degree.

However, the skills gap is even greater in technician and trade careers than professional occupations.

This means the spotlight can’t only be on universities; a focus on vocational education and training pathways (such as TAFE) is crucial too.

To confront the challenges of the coming century, we need a broader public conversation about the place of tertiary education – not just university – and the diverse educational and career pathways available.

*Names have been changed to protect identities.

The Aspirations Longitudinal Study and related studies (2010-2021) were funded by the Australian Research Council, the NSW Department of Education, and the National Centre for Student Equity in Higher Education.

Sally Patfield currently receives funding from the NSW Department of Education, the Commonwealth Department of Education, and the Paul Ramsay Foundation.

– ref. University isn’t right for everyone. Pushing young people to go can have devastating effects – https://theconversation.com/university-isnt-right-for-everyone-pushing-young-people-to-go-can-have-devastating-effects-205652

An austere Christmas is on the cards – but don’t say recession

By The Conversation -

December 18, 2023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Luke Hartigan, Lecturer in Economics, University of Sydney

The rapid increase in interest rates over the past year and a half is causing many consumers to feel less than joyous this festive season.

Spending in the lead up to Christmas is likely to remain subdued, with consumers more budget conscious than in previous years. The muted outlook for consumption has got some economists and media outlets predicting a possible recession in 2024.

So, what is a recession and how likely is it Australia will actually see one next year?

What is a recession, anyway?

The National Bureau of Economic Research (a private research organisation widely seen as the authority for determining recessions in the US) defines recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”

But it is not all just about weak consumption expenditure (people spending a bit less money than usual). In an open economy like Australia, a decline in consumption could just mean a decline in imports. In other words, weak consumption doesn’t necessarily mean we are producing less goods and services locally.

A couple of sad looking presents are placed around a very small Christmas tree. — We may be in for an austere Christmas.
Shutterstock

The Reserve Bank of Australia says a recession is often defined as “a sustained period of weak or negative growth.”

But what do we mean by “sustained”? The media usually takes this to mean at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth in economic activity, typically measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

However, the National Bureau of Economic Research does not use a two-quarter rule. And it looks at more than just domestic production. It examines a variety of different measures of economic activity – such as conditions in the labour market and industrial production – when making its decision about whether a recession has occurred or not.

Currently, there seems to an obsession with finding some measure that will indicate a recession. The latest candidate, popular among some observers and media outlets, is a “per capita GDP recession”.

This means a fall in GDP per person. That’s an easier set of criteria to meet, so if you go by this definition, a recession is more likely.

Other economists and observers shy away from focusing on economic growth, saying the change in the unemployment rate is a better measure. These people believe a higher unemployment rate provides a better sign a recession has occurred.

The problem is, however, there can be other factors that weaken the link between the labour market and economic activity. Institutional changes to the labour market is one example. The decline in activity in 2008–2009, for instance, showed up as a decline in hours worked rather than an increase in unemployment, something that would not have occurred previously.

Even just using the “technical” definition (the two quarter rule) of a recession has its problems too. This is because of the issue of data revisions to measures of economic activity such as GDP.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics frequently revises historical values of GDP as new data become available. As a result, a negative quarterly growth outcome in one period can be revised away by the bureau in a subsequent period.

Take any recession warnings with a grain of salt

In the past, from about the 1960s to the 1980s, recessions were more frequent in Australia. But they are less likely now. This is partly because the frequency and volatility of shocks has declined since the mid-1980s.

A series of economic reforms that occurred in the 1980s and 1990s, such as floating the dollar and opening the economy up to greater competition, has also helped reduce the risk of recession. These changes have made Australia more robust to shocks.

We should be sceptical of anyone claiming a recession is just around the corner. Economists have a terrible track record when it comes to predicting recessions.

To forecast a recession, we need to be able predict “turning points” – periods when economic activity goes from positive growth to negative growth or vice versa. This requires us to predict future shocks, like the outbreak of COVID, which is hard to do consistently.

There will always be some probability of a recession in Australia when a very large shock hits us. But our ability to successfully predict when one will occur is poor.

Any prediction Australia is on the cusp of recession should be taken with a grain of salt.

Luke Hartigan receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He previously worked as an economist at the Reserve Bank of Australia.

– ref. An austere Christmas is on the cards – but don’t say recession – https://theconversation.com/an-austere-christmas-is-on-the-cards-but-dont-say-recession-218718