Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Raven Cretney, Postdoctoral Fellow, University of Waikato

As the cleanup from the Auckland floods continues, and Cyclone Gabrielle hits already saturated parts of the North Island, many people and communities are wondering about the future of their cherished places and homes.

The increasing severity of climate-related disasters, and the vulnerability of ageing stormwater infrastructure, are now tangible and visible realities.

With this, the term “managed retreat” has gone from being a specialist one to something discussed much more widely. And with the growing prospect of repeat events, the urgent need for a national managed retreat framework is very much in focus.

The government’s first National Adaptation Plan, released in August 2022, was lauded as a welcome development in responding to climate change. Central to the plan is the role of managed retreat – the strategic relocation of people, communities, taonga and assets.

As some commentators have pointed out, however, there is an absence of detail in the plan on the enduring questions of who should move, how they will move, and who pays.

Guided by the past

The Auckland floods came as the government is preparing the first draft of its Climate Adaptation Act, part of the repeal of the Resource Management Act. This is the next step in a plan to respond to the growing risks from sea level rise and climate-related disasters.

The legislation (in parallel with the National Built Environment and Strategic Planning bills) aims to address the complex issues associated with managed retreats and how to implement them.

Read more:
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Our recent research suggests a close examination of the past will help guide these difficult decisions. By analysing academic research, government reports and policies, we traced the historical and political context in which managed – and unmanaged – retreats evolved in Aotearoa.

We pieced together why and how retreats gradually evolved, from being reactive and unmanaged towards being a strategic part of our national risk management framework. These insights shed light on why implementation will still be difficult, and they provide lessons for other countries grappling with similar policy options.

Communities in limbo

This journey is not linear. Decision makers and communities have tested different approaches to retreat and have confronted existing science, law and behavioural norms that supported the status quo. These experiences have all been important in making the case for a more anticipatory mindset when making policy.

Our research emphasises that managed retreat only became a mainstream option due to consistent scientific advocacy and shifts in the understanding and application of risk management over decades. It was the result of a long struggle by many committed groups.

Read more:
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For communities across Aotearoa, however, support and direction to enable effective managed retreat is still a waiting game. The previous pattern of ad hoc policy experiments, often based on trial and error, only increases the political risks associated with an already delicate undertaking.

This history highlights the toll that an absence of clear policy can take on individuals and communities. The examples we’ve analysed emphasise how retreats can be disruptive, produce inequitable outcomes and sever community ties.

The challenges of managing retreat without supportive policies heighten the political risk for decision makers, which means effective action may be deferred until a national framework is in place. This is particularly difficult for communities already in limbo, at risk, and without a plan for the future.

Transformative opportunities

Importantly, we emphasise that managed retreats encompass more than just physical change. Decisions to live with risk, resist or retreat are shaped by many things. These include different social and cultural relationships to a place, public expectations of state protection or compensation, and data availability.

There are diverse relationships between people, places, land and property. It’s vital that managed retreat processes empower and support communities to make decisions that reflect their specific social, cultural and environmental contexts –
particularly including Te Tiriti o Waitangi and rights to tino-rangatiratanga (self-determination) for Māori land and taonga.

Read more:
Slippery slopes: why the Auckland storm caused so many landslides – and what can be done about it

Policy development will need to encompass these multifaceted relationships, with flexible approaches tailored to local needs. It is also vital to start a national conversation about the role of permanent property rights and land ownership – and how managed retreat challenges the notion of perpetual property rights in certain locations.

Our historical review highlights the importance of strategic planning and support for communities to mitigate the disruptive impact of managed retreats. The right funding mechanisms that address the potential for inequitable outcomes are also necessary.

Ultimately, planning for managed retreats demands that we reform relationships between communities, place and the environment. This is about more than physical relocation. Managed retreats provide transformative opportunities to unmake and remake space, place and property, but current perceptions of permanence cast a long shadow.

We eagerly await the draft Climate Adaptation Act, and the opportunity for Aotearoa to make better planning decisions for the future. But there is still much work to be done to ensure it can be applied equitably.

Raven Cretney receives funding from the Resilience to Nature’s Challenges National Science Challenge: Kia manawaroa – Ngā Ākina o Te Ao Tūro and the Biological Heritage National Science Challenge: Ngā Koiora Tuku Iho.

Christina Hanna receives funding from the Aotearoa New Zealand Government National Science Challenge: Resilience to Nature’s Challenges – Kia manawaroa – Ngā Ākina o Te Ao Tūroa. Christina also receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s Endeavour Fund to research issues connected to flood risk mapping and better decision making.

Iain White receives funding from the Aotearoa New Zealand Government National Science Challenge: Resilience to Nature’s Challenges – Kia manawaroa – Ngā Ākina o Te Ao Tūroa. Iain White also receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s Endeavour Fund to research issues connected to flood risk mapping and better decision making.

– ref. Who moves and who pays? Managed retreat is hard, but lessons from the past can guide us – https://theconversation.com/who-moves-and-who-pays-managed-retreat-is-hard-but-lessons-from-the-past-can-guide-us-196038

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Curran, Associate Professor of Ecology, Lincoln University, New Zealand

Australian oil and gas giant Santos wants to build an 833-kilometre gas pipeline stretching from southern Queensland to Newcastle in New South Wales. Details released by the company show the project would traverse highly productive farmland, as well as valuable native vegetation.

The pipeline would run underground. Even still, the proposed path is a real risk to threatened species and ecological communities, due to the need to clear a 30m-wide corridor to install the pipeline.

In January, the NSW government granted Santos authority to survey land along the route, with or without permission from landholders. This brings this massive infrastructure project closer to construction.

Many landscapes along the pipeline’s path are already denuded of native vegetation. The threatened ecosystems that remain, including native grasslands, must be protected.

Expanding the gas network across the Liverpool Plains

The proposed pipeline route passes close to Santos’ controversial Narrabri Gas Project. The company claims the pipeline will help alleviate gas shortages along Australia’s east coast.

The preferred route for the pipeline runs through the fertile Liverpool Plains, which cover more than 1.2 million hectares of inland northern NSW, near the towns of Gunnedah, Quirindi and Boggabri.

The plains’ deep, alluvial clay soils are renowned for high agricultural productivity. Before European settlement, the plains supported extensive tracts of naturally treeless grasslands, dominated by plains grass, native oatgrass and silky browntop.

Most of the grasslands have been cleared for agriculture. It’s estimated that less than 5% remain.

The grasslands were listed as endangered in 2001 in NSW, and as critically endangered nationally in 2009.

Travelling stock routes and reserves

The proposed pathway for the pipeline includes travelling stock routes and reserves set aside in the late 1800s. Most surviving patches of critically endangered Liverpool Plains grasslands are found along these stock routes.

Yet, Santos has nominated the Pullaming stock route – which runs 25km southeast from near Gunnedah – as a preferred location for the Hunter Gas Pipeline.

This would require clearing a 30-metre wide strip along one side of the road, removing 75ha of these critically endangered grasslands (almost 1% of the estimated 8,000ha remaining).

The extent of the potential damage is detailed in the map and caption below. The green line running southeast from Gunnedah is the narrow strip of native grassland along the Pullaming stock route.

It’s not just the direct clearing that will impact these grasslands. Adjacent stands will suffer from weed invasion.

Stock routes also provide other cultural and ecological benefits, such as:

• providing emergency stock feed
• aiding the conservation of birds, plant communities and koalas
• protecting ecosystems not commonly found in national parks, such as valley flats.

More than ‘minimal impacts’

The NSW state government approved the pipeline in 2009, and this approval was modified in October 2019. It requires the route to, where possible, avoid endangered ecological communities or have minimal impacts. Where damage does occur, this must be offset by biodiversity gains elsewhere.

The proposed clearing of critically endangered grasslands along the Pullaming stock route is hardly a minimal impact.

Biodiversity offsets involve improving biodiversity in one place to compensate for destruction elsewhere. However, offsets are a very controversial tool and are likely to lead to further biodiversity loss if used improperly.

It is much better to avoid the destruction of native vegetation in the first place, especially if that vegetation is critically endangered and essentially irreplaceable. It is not yet known whether Santos plans to use biodiversity offsets for this project.

Read more:
A contentious NSW gas project is weeks away from approval. Here are 3 reasons it should be rejected

A project that’s hard to justify

The likely destruction of endangered grasslands occurs along just 25km of the 833km pipeline. Other travelling stock routes and native vegetation will be affected elsewhere along the route, further impacting biodiversity.

Based on the preferred pipeline route through the Liverpool Plains, this massive infrastructure project will either extensively damage highly productive farmland, or harm endangered ecological communities, or both of these.

Given this, it’s difficult to see why the project should be allowed to proceed.

The Conversation approached Santos for comment but did not receive a statement before the publication deadline. However, the company’s web page about the Hunter Gas Pipeline route says Santos intends to consider the environment as well as landholder preferences and “potential constructability issues” before finalising the exact location of the pipeline and the permanent easement.

The company says it is “committed to finding the right balance so that impacts to landholders are minimised, and sensitive areas are protected”.
Santos says the path of the pipeline can still be changed, under existing approvals, if certain conditions are met.

Tim Curran receives funding from the New Zealand Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE), Fire and Emergency New Zealand, the Miss E L Hellaby Indigenous Grasslands Research Trust, Marlborough District Council, and the Lincoln University Argyle Fund. Tim is the Immediate Past President of the New Zealand Ecological Society.

– ref. The real price of gas: massive Santos pipeline would destroy rare native grasslands – https://theconversation.com/the-real-price-of-gas-massive-santos-pipeline-would-destroy-rare-native-grasslands-198795

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert Breunig, Professor of Economics and Director, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

The notion of the “fair go” is meant to be central to Australia’s national ethos.

It’s not easy to define, but most of us would agree it means the chance to reach your full potential, regardless of your background. This doesn’t necessarily mean equality, but it does imply social mobility, where you can do better than your parents based on merit.

Education is a major driver of social mobility, with research showing educational attainment explains up to 30% of the transmission of economic advantage between parents and children.

But a Productivity Commission report published last month shows the education system is not doing well in correcting for the disadvantage students face in the classroom.

For example, Year 3 students whose parents did not finish secondary school are an average of 1.3 years behind in numeracy, compared with those whose parents have a bachelors’ degree or higher. By the time these students reach Year 9 this gap widens to almost four years.

The Productivity Commission report was commissioned under the Morrison government to review the 2018 National School Reform Agreement between the federal and state governments to improve student outcomes. The deal came with A$319 billion in extra funding. But after five years, the report concludes, this has so far failed to make any difference in results.

Given the magnitude of the funding, this is troubling on its own. The broader implications for social mobility in Australia are even more concerning.

The commission’s report highlights the need for better data on educational attainment and social mobility. This will enable better analysis of the links between the two – and ultimately more effective education policy.

If policymakers don’t know what works, especially for students from disadvantaged backgrounds, they will spend money on the wrong things.

Read more:
A degree promises a better life but social mobility has a downside too

The importance of longitudinal data

As children from less educated families perform significantly worse than the children of the more educated, it is far less likely their relative economic situation in adulthood will exceed that of their parents.

Unravelling the links between education and social mobility requires longitudinal data – tracking the same individuals over decades.

The best example of longitudinal data in Australia is the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey, conducted by the Melbourne Institute at the University of Melbourne.

Since 2001, HILDA has tracked a nationally representative sample of about 18,000 Australians, asking them about things such as income, employment, health and wellbeing. By surveying the same people, researchers can use this data to understand influences on people’s lives over time.

Read more:
HILDA Survey reveals striking gender and age divide in financial literacy. Test yourself with this quiz

The Australian Taxation Office’s ALife dataset, an anonymised sample of 10% of all Australian taxpayers also provides significant insight into intergenerational income mobility.

By following individuals over decades, researchers can observe and compare the labour market outcomes of parents with those of their children as they grow into adults.

For example, University of Technology Sydney researchers Tomas Kennedy and Peter Siminski have used HILDA and other survey data to conclude about two-thirds of Australians aged 30-34 have higher incomes than their parents at the same age.

Australian National University researchers Nathan Deutscher and Bhashkar Mazumder have used ALife to conclude about 12% of Australians born into the bottom 20% of family income join the top 20% between the ages of 29 and 35. If a family’s wealth at birth had no bearing on a child’s wealth as an adult, that number would be 20%.

Deutscher has also used ALife to follow individuals over 25 years and calculate the effect of where they lived as a child on their income in adulthood. Where a child grows up has a causal impact on their adult outcomes. This typically matters most during the teenage years.

The question is how much of this relates to their school.

To answer this and other questions, researchers need more comprehensive longitudinal data that enables linking things such as child-care attendance, test scores, and school choice across time and with other data sources.

Read more:
Our top 1% of income earners is an increasingly entrenched elite

Unique student identifier

One important policy initiative of the National School Reform Agreement is the introduction of a “unique student identifier” (USI) to track individual student performance over time. This will enable data on educational outcomes to be more easily linked with other data held by state and federal governments, and provide researchers with a clearer picture of how educational outcomes shapes social, economic and health outcomes later life.

However, the Productivity Commission report notes the rollout of this initiative is well behind schedule.

The USI offers more than mere standardisation. Once in place, researchers will also be better able to evaluate the impact of education policy interventions by conducting randomised control trials, similar to those used by in medicine to assess the efficacy of new drugs and treatments. Such trials are crucial for assessing whether a particular education policy reform, for instance a new teaching method, has a causal impact on learning outcomes.

To date, the dearth of randomised control trials in education policy has held back the Australian education evidence base.

As noted in the University of Newcastle’s Teachers and Teaching Research Centre’s submission to the Productivity Commission, the use of randomised control trials in evaluating education policy is hampered by the expense of collecting data from students via surveys. Better data linkage can help solve this problem.

Building a more effective education system to support, maintain and improve social mobility requires the right tools. Without better integrated data and a more reliable education evidence base, taxpayers are far less likely to see a return on the billions being spent.

This article was co-authored by Matthew Taylor, director of the Centre for Independent Studies’ Intergenerational Program.

Robert Breunig does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Success in life is tied to parental education. That’s why we need to track intergenerational school performance – https://theconversation.com/success-in-life-is-tied-to-parental-education-thats-why-we-need-to-track-intergenerational-school-performance-199771

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gery Karantzas, Associate professor in Social Psychology / Relationship Science, Deakin University

Love languages – the concept coined by Baptist pastor Gary Chapman some 30 years ago – has taken the relationships world by storm. It’s often the “go-to” topic on first dates, and for those in relationships love languages are said to provide deep, meaningful and reliable insights into how relationships function. Putting love languages into action is believed to increase relationship happiness.

The concept clearly has appeal. At last count, 20 million copies have been sold worldwide of Chapman’s 1992 book The Five Love Languages: The Secret to Love that Lasts. The book has been translated into 49 languages.

There is only one catch. There is little evidence to support the idea that love languages are “a thing”, or that love languages do much of anything to help improve relationships.

What are the love languages?

According to Chapman, there are five love languages. Each of these love languages is a way to communicate your love to your romantic partner.

In his role as a Baptist pastor, Chapman had been counselling couples for years. It was through his observations of couples that the idea of love languages was born.

He believed love languages were an intuitive and simple way to teach couples about how to tune into each other’s ways of expressing love. And so, he began running seminars for husbands and wives, and the popularity of his seminars grew.

The five love languages are:

(1) acts of service (doing something that helps a partner, such as running an errand)

(2) physical touch (demonstrating physical affection, such as giving your partner a hug or kiss)

(3) quality time (spending time together and giving each other undivided attention)

(4) gifts (giving your partner a present that communicates thoughtfulness, effort, and/or expense)

(5) words of affirmation (such as expressing your admiration, or complimenting your partner).

Chapman suggests that people typically use all love languages, but that most people tend to rely on one love language most of the time. This is referred to as a person’s primary love language.

According to Chapman, people are more satisfied in their relationships when both partners match when it comes to their primary love language. However, people experience less satisfaction in their relationships when both partners do not share the same primary love language.

Another important aspect of the love languages concept is that relationships are likely to deliver the greatest satisfaction when a person can understand their partner’s love language, and act in ways that “speaks to” their partner’s language. In essence, this idea is about tuning in to what a partner wants.

This is an idea that has existed across many models and theories about how relationships function well. That is, responding to a partner in a way that meets their needs and wants makes a person feel understood, validated, and cared for.

What does the evidence tell us?

Despite the popularity of the theory of love languages, only a handful of studies have been conducted and reported over the past 30 years. Research is largely inconclusive, although the balance sways more towards refuting rather than endorsing the love languages concept.

Let’s start with how love languages are assessed. In popular culture, the Love Language QuizTM is an online questionnaire that people can complete to find out about their love languages. Despite millions of individuals having taken the quiz (according to 5lovelanguages.com), there are no published findings as to the reliability and validity of the measure.

Researchers have developed their own version of the love languages survey, but the findings did not meet the statistical thresholds to suggest the survey adequately captured the five love languages. Also, their findings did not support the idea that there are five love languages.

Furthermore, a qualitative study in which researchers coded the written responses of undergraduate students to questions about how they express love, suggested there may be six love languages. However, the researchers reported difficulty agreeing on how some of the students’ responses neatly fitted into Chapman’s love languages, particularly in the categories of “words of affirmation” and “quality time”.

Next, let’s turn to research testing a core premise of the love language theory: that couples with matching love languages experience greater satisfaction than those who do not. Evidence for this premise is very mixed.

Read more:
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Three studies, including one that used Chapman’s Love Language Quiz, have found that couples with matching love languages were no more satisfied than couples who were mismatched.

However, a more recent study found that partners with matching love languages experienced greater relationship and sexual satisfaction than partners with mismatched love languages. This research also found that men who reported greater empathy and perspective-taking had a love language that better matched the language of their partner.

Finally, what does the research say about whether having a better understanding of your partner’s love language is linked to higher relationship satisfaction? Only two studies have investigated this question. Both found that knowing your partner’s primary love language did predict relationship satisfaction in the present or into the future.

So, as you can see, not only is there very little research investigating love languages, but the research to date doesn’t strengthen belief in the powerful properties of love languages.

Gery Karantzas receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is a couples therapist and founder of www.relationshipscienceonline.com.

– ref. Love languages are hugely popular – but there’s very little evidence they exist at all – https://theconversation.com/love-languages-are-hugely-popular-but-theres-very-little-evidence-they-exist-at-all-198065

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

It wasn’t the first time Peter Dutton had said he was sorry for boycotting Kevin Rudd’s 2008’s historic Apology to the Stolen Generations, but Monday’s reiteration was an important moment for the opposition leader.

Dutton is struggling to chart a course and manage his divided party on the issue of the Indigenous Voice to parliament.

If he ends up supporting the Voice, Monday’s speech will be seen as a step on the way. If he rejects it (as many think he will), his speech will probably be viewed as an empty gesture.

Back in the day, Dutton defended his boycott by saying he didn’t think the Apology would deliver any practical results. He said in 2010: “I regarded it as something which was not going to deliver tangible outcomes to kids who are being raped and tortured in communities in the 21st century”.

At his first news conference after becoming leader in 2022, he said he’d been wrong to boycott. Scrapping off a barnacle, the cynics might say.

Addressing the House of Representatives on the 15th anniversary of the apology, Dutton said on Monday: “I want to speak directly to those in the gallery today and further afield who are part of the Stolen Generation and those who are descendants or are connected to the issue.

“I want to say in an unscripted way, I apologise for my actions […] – that I didn’t attend the chamber for the Apology 15 years ago. I’ve apologised for that in the past and I repeat that apology again today.”

He had “failed to grasp at the time the symbolic significance to the Stolen Generation of the Apology. It was right for Prime Minister Rudd to make the Apology in 2008.”

Read more:
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Now, as he grapples with the issue of the Voice, Dutton has to make a judgement about the symbolic significance of this latest test he faces.

Minister for Indigenous Australians Linda Burney said at the weekend: “I know that some people who boycotted that historic day in 2008 have since expressed their regret. They now admit that it was a mistake. And I say to those people – don’t make the same mistake again.”

While Burney didn’t name Dutton she was applying a political blowtorch to him. But there’s a salutary warning for him here.

Dutton has to ask himself whether, given the journey towards the Voice is well underway, an attempt to erect a roadblock would send the worst of signals.

A signal to Indigenous Australians. A signal to the world. This goes deeper than narrow partisan considerations.

If the referendum passes, the resultant Voice may or may not prove an effective instrument in Indigenous advancement.

But even if he is sceptical, given the symbolism of the Voice, does Dutton really want to risk being shouldered with some of the responsibility if the referendum fails?

Wherever he lands – pro, anti, neutral – Dutton will have a fractured band of party followers.

Prominent Liberal moderates such as Bridget Archer and Andrew Bragg are already out and active in support of the Voice. Rightwingers are strongly against. Dutton won’t be able to herd his cats.

Read more:
Enshrining the Voice gives best chance for Closing the Gap, Albanese says

Meanwhile the Voice debate is being increasingly accompanied by greater attention on what is happening on the ground, which is to be welcomed.

This is partly because the referendum has meant more discussions about Indigenous affairs generally, and particularly due to the publicity about the situation in Alice Springs.

The federal government acknowledges that closing the disadvantage gap is not proceeding fast enough or, in some areas, at all.

Anthony Albanese told parliament on Monday that when the Closing the Gap report was tabled a few months ago “the gaps not only persist but some are getting bigger. The report lays out forensically one lopsided statistic after another, in health, education, incarceration rates and especially damning, life expectancy. These are not gaps, they are chasms.”

In recent days, the PM acted decisively on reimposing alcohol bans in Northern Territory communities. More federal money has been announced for a range of initiatives. That’s all good but, on the basis of history, it won’t be transformational.

Whatever their differences, government and opposition agree that we as a country are falling short. As Dutton said, “Our current actions – for all their good intent – are not bringing about enough practical outcomes for which we can all be proud as a nation”.

It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that these issues actually go beyond more resources, more partnerships, or even more listening to indigenous communities. These are classic “wicked problems”.

Australia’s First Nations people straddle two cultures. How this works for individuals varies dramatically, ranging from those living very traditional lives in remote communities (and wanting to continue doing so) to those committed to their culture and country but with day-to-day existences no different from their non-Indigenous neighbours.

Good policy must respect and accommodate many circumstances. It must underpin the traditional, semi-traditional and town communities with adequate and appropriate services. These (including even clean water) are often lacking now.

Read more:
Enshrining the Voice gives best chance for Closing the Gap, Albanese says

Crucially, good policy must also facilitate choices and social mobility for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. The young girl born into an Alice Springs camp should have a realistic pathway to becoming an urban IT worker, if that is her aspiration.

The overarching challenge is to support the cultural identity of Indigenous Australians while ensuring them the same equality of opportunity non-Indigenous Australians expect. Multiple rights are involved: their rights as first occupants, their rights as modern citizens. It’s a challenge that in real life produces deep complexities for policy areas. We don’t seem to talk much about this fundamental conundrum, because it can be an uncomfortable conversation that seems just too hard. Perhaps the Voice would.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. View from The Hill: Dutton apologises for missing Apology’s symbolism but how will he see the Voice’s symbolism? – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-dutton-apologises-for-missing-apologys-symbolism-but-how-will-he-see-the-voices-symbolism-199788

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daniel Ghezelbash, Associate Professor and Deputy Director, Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law, UNSW Law & Justice, UNSW Sydney, UNSW Sydney

Refugees in Australia on temporary protection visas (TPVs) and Safe Haven Enterprise Visas (SHEVs) now have a pathway to permanent protection, the federal government has confirmed today.

The long-awaited changes will bring much-needed certainty to around 20,000 people who arrived in Australia before January 1 2014, and who were found to be refugees or at risk of serious human rights violations.

These people have endured years in limbo under a policy that research has shown to be unfair, expensive, impractical, and inconsistent with our international obligations.

Temporary protection not only inflicts significant mental harm on asylum seekers, but also created a costly bureaucratic burden for the government. It’s also out of step with the practice of other countries, where temporary protection is reserved for exceptional circumstances.

The changes are a welcome development for people who have lived with uncertainty for a decade, providing them with an opportunity to rebuild their lives with a sense of security. The decision is also highly unlikely to encourage asylum seekers to try to reach Australia by boat.

Yet, the fate of thousands of other refugees and asylum seekers in limbo in Australia remains uncertain.

How did we get here?

The Coalition announced in 2013 that the temporary protection regime would be reintroduced as part of Operation Sovereign Borders.

It was deployed alongside boat pushbacks at sea and offshore processing, with the goal of deterring asylum seekers from travelling by boat to Australia.

The temporary nature of such visas meant refugees had to have their protection claims reassessed every few years. This left refugees in a state of constant fear and anxiety, unsure if they would be allowed to remain in the country or be forced to leave.

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Those on SHEVs who met certain requirements relating to work and study in regional areas were – at least on paper – potentially eligible for other visas. But in practice, those requirements were beyond reach, with only one person ever qualifying.

The changes announced overnight mark a welcome development. But they don’t resolve the precarious fate of all those in the so-called “legacy caseload”. There’s more to do to bring fairness to thousands of other refugees and asylum seekers who remain tangled in Australia’s complex “fast-track” process.

Permanent protection

While the changes fall short of formally abolishing TPV and SHEV visas, people who currently hold such visas will now be able to apply for a “Resolution of Status Visa”. This will allow them to remain permanently in Australia, subject to character, health and security checks.

Permanent residency will provide access to a wide range of rights and benefits that have been out of reach. This includes a pathway to citizenship, access to social security and other benefits, the ability to travel abroad, and access to government subsidised higher education.

After a decade of being separated from their families, such visa holders will now be able to sponsor family members to join them in Australia.

The changes implement a promise the Albanese government took to the 2022 election, widely backed by the Australian public. Polling by the Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law, the Behavioural Insights Team, and Macquarie University showed three out of four Australian voters supported this pathway to permanency.

The Albanese government’s announcement of A$9.4 million of funding for specialist legal service providers is also welcome. This will allow TPV and SHEV holders to access free legal assistance as they go through the visa application process.

Who misses out?

Regrettably, the changes fall short of an across-the-board solution for all 31,000 people subject to the TPV and SHEV regime, called for by refugees, refugee-led organisations and other experts.

This means the approximately 12,000 people who hadn’t yet been issued a TPV or SHEV will continue to live in limbo.

This includes around 6,000 people who had their initial visa application refused, and who are seeking merits or judicial review of that decision. That process is set to continue, and the good news is that those who succeed at review and are granted a TPV or SHEV will now automatically be able to apply for a permanent visa.

However, a further 2,500 people who had their TPV or SHEV cancelled or refused are left out and expected to leave Australia. Anyone with a new credible claim may be able to request ministerial intervention. But this is a highly discretionary process and remains to be seen how willing the minister may be to exercise this power.

It’s concerning these people are left without a better process, given the well-documented flaws in the so called “fast-track” process that was used to assess these claims. This means there’s a real risk that many people who had their initial claims refused may in fact have valid protection claims.

The changes also don’t apply to anyone who tried to reach Australia by boat after January 1 2014, including the more than 1,000 people transferred from offshore processing facilities to Australia for medical treatment.

The government’s position remains that these people will never be allowed to settle in Australia, and should pursue resettlement options abroad, including through Australia’s arrangements with New Zealand.

Read more:
Aus-NZ refugee deal is a bandage on a failed policy. It’s time to end offshore processing

It won’t encourage people smugglers

The changes also don’t affect asylum seekers who may attempt to reach Australia by boat in the future. Boat pushbacks at sea and offshore processing arrangements with Nauru remain in place, as does the bar on such arrivals applying for protection visas in Australia.

What this means is that TPVs and SHEVs remain on the books for future arrivals and would be available if the minister were to decide to lift that bar in any given case.

This makes claims that the changes could encourage asylum seekers to travel to Australia by boat completely baseless.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has expressed a commitment to being strong on borders without being weak on humanity. Today’s announcement is a welcome first step in that direction, but there’s still a great deal left to be done to return a sense of humanity to Australia’s refugee policies.

Refugees affected by the changes can access information about legal assistance here and here.

Daniel Ghezelbash receives funding from Australian Research Council. He is a member of the management committee of Refugee Advice and Casework Services and a Special Counsel at the National Justice Project.

– ref. Changes to temporary protection visas are a welcome development – and they won’t encourage people smugglers – https://theconversation.com/changes-to-temporary-protection-visas-are-a-welcome-development-and-they-wont-encourage-people-smugglers-199763

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Damian Mellifont, Honorary Postdoctoral Fellow, Centre for Disability Research and Policy, University of Sydney

Australia is lagging behind other countries when it comes to employing people with disability.

A gulf exists between the employment rates of working-aged Australians with and without disability. The gap here is 32%, much higher than countries such as Sweden (9.5%), Finland (12.4%), France (9.9%) and Italy (13.3%).

Clearly, Australia needs to do a far better job of employing people with disability. My research, as someone with lived experience of disability, suggests disability services could be a good place to start.

Out of step with an inclusive ethos

The most recent census published by National Disability Services (NDS) – Australia’s peak body for non-government disability services – included new questions about the employment of staff with disability.

Our research team analysed the responses. They indicated many Australian disability services don’t include people with lived experience of disability among their workforce. In fact, almost a quarter of the 288 disability services surveyed said they don’t employ anyone with disability.

Further, only 24% of the organisations said they had someone with disability on their board. Even fewer organisations (19%) employed people with disability in management positions.

This fresh data is timely given the Albanese government’s election promise to include more people with disability as board members and in senior roles. In September, the government appointed Kurt Fearnley as National Disability Insurance Agency chair, along with two new directors: Graeme Innes (former disability discrimination commissioner) and Maryanne Diamond (Australian Network on Disability board member). The appointments brought the number of people with disability on the NDIA board to five.

But with lots of “don’t know” and “we don’t keep records” responses to the NDS census questions, it appears many disability service organisations are not collecting data about employees with disability. By not investing in this data collection, organisations are sending a message they don’t value disability as a part of diversity or inclusion.

This message is out of step with an inclusive ethos which celebrates the contributions Australians with disability make in our communities.

Read more:
A disabled NDIA chair is a great first move in the NDIS reset. Here’s what should happen next

Policy is soft

The NDIS Workforce Capability Framework, which will be rolled out this year, and the NDIS National Workforce Plan: 2021–2025 both recommend employing more people with disability. But both national polices are limited to “soft statements” rather than the steps required to achieve this goal.

For example, the NDIS National Workforce Plan recommends educators promote the demand for disability service workers. This might encourage job seekers with disability to apply. But these kinds of indirect policy approaches lean on the goodwill of the disability services sector.

This soft policy approach also fails to value and support the untapped work potential of people with disability in a sector that is experiencing significant workforce shortages.

Within the disability services sector, lived experience should be valued as a key capability. The National Workforce Plan should be forthright in actions to harness the skills, knowledge and experience of people with disability for roles across the sector.

The Albanese government could also look to its current review of the 1986 Disability Services Act as a legislative mechanism to enforce inclusive action.

Through non-compliance taxation, where companies have to pay additional taxes if they do not employ sufficient numbers of people with disability, the Australian government could encourage disability service organisations to meet disability employment quotas. Initiatives like this have been implemented in many other countries including Italy and France

Quotas are aligned with the concept of “affirmative action”, which aims to achieve equality for groups of people who have historically experienced discrimination, especially in areas such as employment and education.

Alternatively, service providers who currently receive National Disability Insurance Scheme funding could be registered with a condition that requires compliance with disability employment quotas.

Read more:
Low staff turnover, high loyalty and productivity gains: the business benefits of hiring people with intellectual disability

Expect initial resistance

Our research underlines the need for strong policy measures to employ more people with disability. Disability service and leadership roles are a logical place to start this process.

Disability service organisations are missing out on a range of benefits that come from employing more people with lived experience of disability. These benefits include improvements in productivity, staff morale and organisational culture.

The introduction of disability employment quotas might encounter initial resistance. But if the Australian government is serious about improving employment prospects for people with disability, including career prospects within disability services, it will need to take affirmative action.

Damian Mellifont receives funding from NDS.

Jen Smith-Merry receives funding relevant to this article from National Disability Services, the Royal Commission into Violence, Abuse, Neglect and Exploitation of People with Disability, Independent Community Living Australia, the National Health and Medical Research Council, the National Disability Insurance Agency, the NSW Department of Education, the National Disability Research Partnership, Community Options Australia, the Canadian New Frontiers in Research Fund and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

Kim Bulkeley receives funding from the Australian Research Council; Monash University; ASPECT; MacKillop Family Services; NDS. Kim is affiliated with the Centre for Research Excellence – Disability and Health. Kim is on the Practice Governance Committee for Life Without Barriers. Kim is the president of Disability SPOT.

– ref. Australia is lagging when it comes to employing people with disability – quotas for disability services could be a start – https://theconversation.com/australia-is-lagging-when-it-comes-to-employing-people-with-disability-quotas-for-disability-services-could-be-a-start-199405

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hussein Dia, Professor of Future Urban Mobility, Swinburne University of Technology

Four years ago, then-Prime Minister Scott Morrison famously claimed electric vehicles (EVs) would end the weekend. “It’s not going to tow your trailer. It’s not going to tow your boat. It’s not going to get you out to your favourite camping spot,” he said.

His comments drew on the popular misconception EVs are underpowered relative to petrol, gas or diesel cars. Experts refuted the claims, while video of a Tesla towing a 130-tonne Boeing 787 circulated.

But one part of Morrison’s critique had longer resonance. Could utes ever go electric? These light utility cars are favoured by Australia and New Zealand’s two million strong tradie workforce to take materials and tools to jobs. Ute drivers are more likely to drive longer distances, making range anxiety an obstacle.

The answer is yes, though it may take longer than for cars. Only last week Melbourne company SEA Group announced a deal to turn thousands of conventional utes electric.

At present, new electric utes are still more expensive. But over time, their advantages will make them an easy choice.

How are electric utes different?

Electric utes will have much lower running costs from fuel to maintenance. Electricity is cheaper than petrol or diesel. And doing away with the internal combustion engine means maintenance is much cheaper and less frequent.

They have improved performance, with instant torque and rapid acceleration. This makes them suited for towing and driving in environments where quick manoeuvring and agility are needed.

Read more:
New electric cars for under $45,000? They’re finally coming to Australia – but the battle isn’t over

They have more storage because there’s no large engine, leaving room for a front trunk. Batteries are typically located under the floor.

And for tradies, the large battery means they can charge and run their tools without the need for a generator.

Like other electric vehicles, electric utes have better energy efficiency, converting much, much more of the energy stored in the battery into motion. By contrast, internal combustion engines lose most of the energy in their fuel to heat.

But what about ‘range anxiety’?

The average driver in Australia covers 36 kilometres per day, or around 12,000 kilometres each year.

But averages conceal heavy users. Owners of utes and other light commercial vehicles drive almost 40% more than car drivers.

So, can electric utes handle the extra kilometres? In short – yes. Battery technology improves every year. The average distance an EV can drive on a single charge doubled from 138km to 349km in the decade to 2021, based on US models.

Batteries will get better and cheaper, meaning range will increase. You can charge your electric ute at one of almost 5,000 charging stations around Australia – a number which has almost doubled in just three years. It’s also possible to swap out depleted batteries rather than stopping to recharge.

If there’s power available at a worksite, you can also run a power cable to top up your ute while on the job.

Electric utes will be slower to arrive – but the bigger change is already here

This year, Australia will have 100,000 electric vehicles on its roads for the first time.

After years in the doldrums, electric cars finally arrived in numbers. Last year, almost 40,000 hit the roads for the first time – doubling the total in a single year.

But there’s still a way to go. That’s just 3.8% of all new car sales – well below the global average of 12–14% and far behind world leader Norway, where 87% of vehicles sold are now electric.

Cars are comparatively easy to electrify. Utes and trucks are a harder challenge. Even though they come with major advantages, the higher sticker price will deter buyers.

This matters, because transport is now Australia’s third-largest – and fastest growing – source of emissions, accounting for close to 20% of the nation’s emissions.

Of these emissions, freight trucks are responsible for 23%, and light duty road vehicles – which includes utes –  contribute 18%.

For years, Australia has been at the back of the pack. Our lack of emission standards for vehicles has made us a dumping ground for high-polluting cars and trucks.

Electrifying our whole fleet of vehicles – coupled with clean energy to power them – is essential if we are to meet our legislated emissions targets.

Which electric utes are available now – or coming soon?

Australia’s first electric ute is the LDV eT60. It’s hugely expensive at around A$93,000, almost twice the cost of its diesel counterpart.

So how can we be confident electric utes will take off? Because the technology isn’t standing still. As EVs get better and as worldwide battery production skyrockets, prices will fall. Many other models will soon be available.

States and territories are also introducing policies to reduce the cost of purchase, such as basing the cost of registering a vehicle on its emissions.

Within seven years, electric vans and utes are predicted to make up over 50% of all light duty commercial vehicles. This could come even sooner with supportive government policies.

There’s also a renewed interest in local manufacturing. Queensland’s Ace EV Group plans to launch a small, cheap electric ute with the ability to charge your tools from its battery, while other outfits offer to convert your existing car to electric.

The route to electric utes

The switch to electric is – at last – beginning in earnest. But time is of the essence. To accelerate, we need more variety and more affordable EVs, including light duty vehicles and utes.

One policy setting still holding us back is the lack of mandatory fuel efficiency standards. If we had these, we would see much faster change.

Labor last year promised Australia would at last have ambitious mandatory fuel-efficiency standards. They can’t come soon enough.

Read more:
Australia is failing on electric vehicles. California shows it’s possible to pick up the pace

Hussein Dia receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the iMOVE Cooperative Research Centre, Level Crossing Removal Authority, Transport for New South Wales, Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts, and Beam Mobility Holdings.

– ref. Electric utes can now power the weekend – and the work week – https://theconversation.com/electric-utes-can-now-power-the-weekend-and-the-work-week-199600

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jessica Holloway, Senior Research DECRA Fellow, Institute for Learning Sciences and Teacher Education, Australian Catholic University

Australia’s education ministers have just announced changes to NAPLAN that will start right away. These include bringing the testing date forward and changing the way results are reported. According to the ministers:

These new standards will give teachers and parents better information about what a student can do.

What will the changes mean for schools and students?

Remind me, what is NAPLAN?

NAPLAN was introduced in 2008 and is an annual test of all Australian students in years 3, 5, 7 and 9.

It aims to see whether students are developing basic skills in literacy and numeracy.

Earlier testing date

NAPLAN is done by schools in a specific testing window. As of this year, the window will move from May to March.

This year’s test will also be administered entirely online for the first time (with the exception of the Year 3 writing test).

Because it will be done online and completed in term one, results can be made available faster. Parents and schools are due to receive students’ individual reports in July 2023.

Experts have long criticised the late reporting of NAPLAN scores, arguing it did not allow enough time to actually use the results in a given school year. The new approach gives schools more of a chance to work with and respond to NAPLAN data.

What about test prep?

The earlier testing date will mean schools have less time for test preparation. This is not necessarily a negative thing. “Teaching to the test” has always been a significant concern for parents, teachers and researchers because it takes away from more authentic learning opportunities.

With NAPLAN in March, schools have little time to explicitly teach for the test and more of the school year to focus on other content. However, there is a risk it could lead to more intensive test preparation in the first months of the school year for students in years 3, 5, 7 and 9. Or it could see teachers in earlier grades spend more time on test preparation for subsequent years.

New standards

Another key change to NAPLAN is students’ results will now be reported against four levels of achievement instead of the existing ten “proficiency bands”. These new levels are “exceeding”, “strong”, “developing” and “needs additional support”.

Read more:
What parents should and shouldn’t say when talking to their child about NAPLAN results

Some media commentary has suggested the new standards will “water down” existing expectations. However, there will actually be a higher threshold for students to meet the new minimum standard.

For students to be deemed “proficient”, they will have to meet either the “exceeding” or “strong” level, which is designed to “support higher expectations for student achievement”. As such, the changes could actually mean more students (not fewer) are identified as performing below minimum standards.

It is also hoped the new easy-to-read standards will make the results more accessible for students and parents.

However, schools will likely need more resources, such as teacher aides and professional learning, to ensure that students actually receive the extra help they need.

What isn’t being proposed?

The proposed changes are primarily targeted at how NAPLAN data is reported, with a particular focus on more user-friendly forms for teachers, parents and students.

They do not tackle deeper inequalities and achievement disparities in the education system. For example, a recent Productivity Commission report showed 5% to 9% of Australian students in 2021 did not meet NAPLAN minimum standards in reading or numeracy, which translates to “tens of thousands of students” each year.

The report raised important questions about whether minimum standards are set too low and whether systems and schools are doing enough to identify and support students who are falling behind.

For example, students who are below minimum standards at Year 3 struggle to catch up in later years. Also, more than half of all struggling students are not in identified priority equity cohorts (such as Indigenous or rural students). This could mean they are less likely to be identified as needing additional support.

Will this make a difference?

While the new changes are intended to produce positive impacts, it remains to be seen how meaningful they will be. Theoretically, making it easier to receive and understand results will make it easier to improve student performance.

Read more:
Five things we wouldn’t know without NAPLAN

But measuring student learning and achievement is a very complex process and requires nuanced interpretations. All measurement is prone to errors and blind spots. While the new changes might offer schools and parents simpler reports, we must not assume this automatically means cleaner or more useful data.

The changes will certainly be welcomed by many who have argued for earlier and simpler NAPLAN reporting. Hopefully, they will also lead to better outcomes for students and more fruitful conversations about the purpose and importance of NAPLAN for Australian schools.

Jessica Holloway receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Glenn C. Savage receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Steven Lewis receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. What do the NAPLAN test changes mean for schools and students? – https://theconversation.com/what-do-the-naplan-test-changes-mean-for-schools-and-students-199764

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ausma Bernot, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Australian Graduate School of Policing and Security, Charles Sturt University

Australian government offices have begun removing more than 900 Chinese-made surveillance cameras, intercoms, electronic entry systems and video recorders. Last week, a government audit found the technology had been installed in more than 250 departments and agencies.

Concerns over the cameras prompted dire warnings from the shadow cyber-security minister, James Paterson, who has previously called Chinese espionage and foreign interference the greatest threat to Australia’s way of life.

According to Paterson, ASIO Director-General Mike Burgess has expressed similar concerns about the cameras, saying “where data would end up and what else it could be used for would be of great concern to me and my agency”.

China, meanwhile, has reacted to the order to remove the cameras as an “erroneous” action that abuses state power and discriminates against Chinese companies.

So, why are Australian officials so worried about these cameras, and is the level of concern justified?

The world’s largest video surveillance companies

The two China-based companies that supplied these cameras are Hikvision and Dahua. The MIT Technology Review called Hikvision, which is headquartered in China’s eastern city of Hangzhou, “the world’s biggest surveillance company you’ve never heard of”.

Hikvision is indeed the largest manufacturer of video surveillance equipment in the world, selling to around 200 countries. Dahua is Hikvision’s largest global competitor and the second-largest company in this space.

Both companies have authorised dealers to sell their products in Australia and respond to public tenders. In 2021, independent researchers found there were over 60,000 surveillance camera networks from the two companies in Australia – over 41,000 from Hikvision and 18,000 from Dahua.

That’s a small number compared to the companies’ over 700,000 camera networks in the United States and over 800,000 in Vietnam. Removing just 900 is also just a drop in the ocean when you look at the overall number in Australia.

Links to human rights violations

The Australian government’s audit cited the direct links of Dahua and Hikvision to the mass surveillance system that has been set up in the Xinjiang region of China to monitor and control the Uyghur minority.

In 2019, the United States added both companies to its Entity List, which requires foreign companies to file for additional government approvals to continue buying parts or technologies from US companies. (The Biden administration added six more Chinese entities to the blacklist last week, saying they were linked to China’s surveillance balloon program.)

Read more:
Forget spy balloons, the world of surveillance has tried everything from schoolchildren to trained cats

All the Chinese companies on the list have been deemed to be “acting contrary to the national security or foreign policy interests of the United States”. The reasoning was not sugarcoated:

Specifically, these entities have been implicated in human rights violations and abuses in the implementation of China’s campaign of repression, mass arbitrary detention, and high-technology surveillance against Uyghurs, Kazakhs, and other members of Muslim minority groups in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region.

Last year, the UK also banned Hikvision surveillance systems from being installed in “sensitive” sites.

Links to the Chinese Communist Party

Both Hikvision and Dahua sell to and work with the Chinese Communist Party and government.

Investigations by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) found that in 2019, Dahua received around US$19.9 million (A$28.8 million) in Chinese government subsidies. Dahua also has its own Communist Party committee and supplies technology for numerous projects linked to the Chinese government.

Similarly, Hikvision has a party branch, which was led by its deputy general manager in 2015, and is an important supplier for the People’s Liberation Army. The company has also been visited by the Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

On its Chinese language website, Hikvision often showcases collaborations with the government’s public security apparatus.

My research shows that through close cooperation with the Chinese Party and government, surveillance companies can access large subsidies to support their domestic and international businesses. Caught between domestic business growth opportunities and international regulations, companies often choose to work in line with party-state policies. The market opportunities are simply larger this way.

Greater scrutiny by countries like the US, UK and Australia may further push Chinese surveillance companies to seek relationships in countries that are perceived as more stable commercial partners. The Chinese government has been calling for a further de-coupling of the economy from its rivals and strengthening collaborations with China-friendly nations.

For example, when the US, Australia and other allies banned Huawei’s 5G equipment several years ago, countries in the Persian Gulf happily stepped in to fill their place.

Read more:
China is accused of exporting authoritarian technology. But the west has done so, too, more covertly

So, would Australian data be safe?

Links to the Communist Party are just part of the concern. So is the potential for data collected by these companies to be transferred to the Chinese government.

Whether these companies do actually transfer data to Chinese intelligence agencies would be hard to either prove or disprove. Paterson acknowledges “we may never know if data is being exfiltrated from these cameras”. In a statement to Time, Hikvision and Dahua representatives rejected claims they store or share user data.

However, Chinese security laws passed in 2017 can compel Chinese organisations to transfer the data they collect to the government. As a senior analyst from ASPI explains, the companies may say the data wouldn’t be accessed, but “if there is a national security or national defence demand for that data, then it would be.”

The recent TikTok example showed that even if a company claims not to send data to the Chinese government, there may be other ways it can be accessed (such as through a company’s cloud storage).

The Australian focus has so far been on identifying “risk” to national security, but only that coming from China. This is despite other countries, such as the United States, previously being connected to espionage via tech providers.

Instead, Australia should take a more systematic approach that guides the use of all critical data-collecting communications technologies and creates rules that all suppliers must adhere to.

Read more:
Even if TikTok and other apps are collecting your data, what are the actual consequences?

Ausma Bernot does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. There are 60,000 Chinese-made surveillance systems in Australia – how concerned should we be? – https://theconversation.com/there-are-60-000-chinese-made-surveillance-systems-in-australia-how-concerned-should-we-be-199734

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dee Ninis, Earthquake Geologist, Monash University

After devastating earthquakes, it’s common to see discussion of earthquake prediction. An earthquake prediction requires, in advance, the specific time, location and magnitude of a future quake.

However, earthquake prediction has never been achieved successfully in a way which could be repeated.

Often, “predictions” are vague, such as describing the future earthquake as happening “sooner or later”, and the underlying methods are not scientifically founded.

That’s not to say we don’t know anything about what earthquakes will happen in the future. While earthquake scientists are not able to predict earthquakes, we are able to forecast them.

What’s the difference between a prediction and a forecast?

A forecast tells you the chance or the probability of a range of future earthquakes in a given region. This includes how big the quakes may be (their magnitude), and how frequently they will occur over a specified time period.

Earthquake forecasts are built on observations of past earthquake activity, which may stretch back decades, centuries or even thousands of years. These observations are analysed and modelled, and we use our understanding of the physics of earthquake occurrence to determine the chances of future seismic activity.

When looking at catalogues of the time, location and magnitude of past earthquakes, it becomes very clear that damaging earthquakes are more likely to strike along the boundaries of the tectonic plates that make up Earth’s crust than in the interior of those plates.

In recent decades, the installation of worldwide networks of seismic recorders has also allowed the detection of much smaller quakes and tremors – including events too small to be perceived by people. These data have revealed important relationships between the relative numbers of small and large earthquakes which underpin earthquake forecasting. Earthquake forecasts can be made for the short term (weeks, months, years) and the long term (decades to centuries).

How little quakes give us clues about big ones

One of the fundamental discoveries of seismology is the fact that, in a given region, there will be on average about ten times as many magnitude 2.0 earthquakes as magnitude 3.0 quakes. There will also be ten times as many magnitude 3.0 as magnitude 4.0, and so on.

This relation allows us to use small earthquakes, which happen often, to forecast less frequent, large earthquakes – which may not yet exist in historical records.

Observations and analysis of major earthquakes from around the world over the past century or more has also helped us to understand their aftershocks. These shocks diminish over time in a statistically characteristic way.

Read more:
Satellite measurements of slow ground movements may provide a better tool for earthquake forecasting

This relationship is used for short-term forecasts of active earthquake sequences, to estimate the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes in the weeks, months and years following the main quake.

In these forecasts, large magnitude aftershocks are always possible, and in some cases, they can be larger than the mainshock. Such forecasts have been used in many countries around the world.

After the magnitude 7.1 earthquake at Ridgecrest, California, in 2019, a series of forecasts were released, and updated as new data was received. Currently, there is a 10% chance of one aftershock of magnitude 5.0 to magnitude 5.9 in the Ridgecrest region in the next year.

Knowing what to expect during an active sequence is important for planning how to respond and recover from a strong earthquake.

Records in rock

Geological investigations extend the record of major earthquakes beyond those captured in earthquake catalogues. These studies look for evidence of ground-rupturing earthquakes along a particular fault.

Take the Alpine Fault, a 600 km section of the boundary of the Pacific and Australian plates in Aotearoa New Zealand. Analysis of rocks along the fault has provided strong evidence that, over the past 8,000 years or so, one ground-rupturing earthquake of around magnitude 8.0 has occurred roughly every 300 years.

The most recent major rupture on the Alpine Fault was in 1717, more than 300 years ago.

Read more:
NZ’s next large Alpine Fault quake is likely coming sooner than we thought, study shows

Using this data, earthquake scientists have estimated that there is a high probability – a 75% chance – of rupture on this fault in the next 50 years. There is an approximately 80% chance that this earthquake will be a magnitude 8.0 or above.

This type of medium- to long-term forecast allows for preparedness such as planning for emergency response. In the case of the Alpine Fault, the AF8 program was put in place to keep the community informed and engaged, and to plan the response and build resilience for the expected future earthquake.

Maps and codes

Our best long-term forecasts use data from earthquake catalogues and geological studies, combined with earthquake behaviour patterns and other knowledge such as geodetic models – which use GPS networks to tell us how Earth’s surface is under strain and moving as tectonic plates shift.

These forecasts typically provide not just the magnitude and location, but also the range of the intensity of ground-shaking from future earthquakes.

Much like climate forecasts, these forecasts combine multiple models into a single forecast. This is used to map regions of low to high probability of experiencing damaging earthquakes.

These long-term forecasts inform building codes around the world, and guide the design and construction of buildings and infrastructure to withstand strong ground shaking from future earthquakes and, ultimately, to save lives.

Dee Ninis works for the Seismology Research Centre, and is Vice President of the Australian Earthquake Engineering Society.

Matt Gerstenberger is a member of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering and an Associate Editor for the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

– ref. Nobody can predict earthquakes, but we can forecast them. Here’s how – https://theconversation.com/nobody-can-predict-earthquakes-but-we-can-forecast-them-heres-how-199757

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yimin Xu, Ph.D student at School of Humanities & Language, Faculty of Arts, Design & Architecture, UNSW Sydney

A prequel to the 2019 film Wandering Earth, the Chinese blockbuster hit Wandering Earth II opens on a futuristic dystopia where the dying Sun is about to explode and engulf Earth.

A survival strategy is proposed: the Wandering Earth Project will build giant engines and use them to propel Earth away from the Sun.

Amid a global crisis, China rises to save the world. Western countries descend into chaos. Using state-of-the-art made-in-China technologies, China carries out the Wandering Earth Project – disregarding the cost of lives lost.

Now released globally, Wandering Earth II has earned more than half a billion dollars in China since it opened on January 22. It has also achieved critical success in its home country, with domestic media saying it exemplifies a “Chinese-style space romance”.

Adapted from a short science fiction story by celebrated Chinese author Liu Cixin, at first sight the plot will seem very familiar to fans of Hollywood.

But this film speaks to China’s growing ambition of leading global governance, and its embrace of collectivism and consequentialism.

Chinese science fiction

These political imaginations are not recent. They are deeply rooted in China’s political traditions, along with the development of science fiction literature in China.

Western science fiction was first translated into Chinese in 1902, at a time when Chinese thinkers called for learning from the West to “subdue” the West: a self-salvation plan to modernise China.

Science fiction was taken as an educational tool to disseminate Western sciences. Science fiction enabled China to imagine a bright future when it achieved national independence from Westerners – or became a new power in international politics.

An early Chinese science fiction book was The New Era, published in 1908. This book envisioned China would rise as a regional power in 1999 and secure peace in the Asian continent.

Chinese science fiction began by learning from Western counterparts at the turn of the 20th century when works of Jules Verne and H.G. Wells were widely translated and read in China.

After 1949, however, the genre followed the footsteps of the Soviet Union in its imagination of how science and technology could be better used in the hands of communists than Western capitalists.

Read more:
China’s Communist Party at 100: revolution forever

East versus West

Wandering Earth II continues this tradition of praising the science possible under communism, and positioning China as a global power. Here, China invests the most resources – technological, financial and human – in saving Earth.

The West is often represented as a rival in Chinese science fiction literature. Alternatively, it serves as a witness to China’s victory: in Wandering Earth II, even the United States has to consult a Chinese diplomat for advice.

This diplomat, Mr Zhou, bears a remarkable resemblance to Zhou Enlai, China’s first premier under Mao Zedong’s leadership. As a diplomat, Zhou Enlai helped China negotiate regional disputes with neighbouring countries.

Today, Xi’s “community of common destiny” is shaking the world order.

China’s leadership in Wandering Earth II’s “united Earth government” echoes the increasingly assertive image of China in global politics.

Chinese collectivism

The Wandering Earth Project exemplifies Chinese collectivism when old astronauts voluntarily join in a suicide mission – although some of them are not given a chance to speak.

Chinese history is permeated with political myths of individual sacrifices, derived from the long-existing authoritarian regime.

After communism won in 1949, “for the people” became supreme doctrine: the new government worked to eliminate remaining bourgeois liberal thoughts, and build revolutionary heroes. Individual interest was reduced to be secondary to service for the nation.

A key part of Chinese political life is the collective ideology of conspicuous consequentialism: that is, the morality of an action is measured only in its consequences.

Taking human survival as its goal, the supreme artificial intelligence in the film pushes Earth to the verge of destruction to test the willingness of human unity.

Despite the “good” intentions of this artificial intelligence, it drags everyone’s life into extreme danger and leaves more than half the world’s population on a barren and frozen Earth without atmospheric protection.

No one in Wandering Earth II questions this draconian decision-making logic. Indeed, when the AI’s true purpose is revealed at the end of the film, the human survivors eulogise its intelligence, forgetting the high price they have paid.

Individual sacrifices

There are many parallels to draw between Wandering Earth II and modern Chinese society.

Today in China, the authoritarian bureaucracy emphasises results, while the policy goals – whether extensive economic growth or COVID-zero – lead to a moral dilemma between overall outcome and individual losses in the process.

When the greater good is achieved, individual sacrifices are lightly portrayed as a necessary cost and a “detour” in the development – which, of course, can be forgivable, and then forgettable.

In contrast to Kant’s humans are ends, not means, both Wandering Earth II and Chinese politics conceive the opposite.

Read more:
More lunar missions means more space junk around the Moon – two scientists are building a catalog to track the trash

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What the sci-fi blockbuster Wandering Earth II can teach us about China’s global and local aspirations – https://theconversation.com/what-the-sci-fi-blockbuster-wandering-earth-ii-can-teach-us-about-chinas-global-and-local-aspirations-198785

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Suzanne Wilkinson, Professor of Construction Management, Massey University

Flooded roads, our largest international airport underwater, overwhelmed storm water systems and significant sewage discharge into the sea and streams. The recent floods and then cyclone in Auckland are a stark reminder that our basic infrastructure lacks the resilience needed to survive major weather events.

When we talk about infrastructure resilience, we’re talking about an infrastructure system that continues to meet community needs – even after earthquakes, floods or cyclones.

After years of neglect, Auckland’s roads and water systems were simply unable to cope with the unprecedented rainfall and flooding seen in January. While the rainfall may have broken records, there have long been calls to future-proof the city’s infrastructure in the face of climate change.

In large part, this has not happened.

The importance of lifeline utilities

Roads, airports and water systems are included on a list of critical infrastructure described as “lifeline utilities”. These fall under the Civil Defence Emergency Management Act 2002, which requires that the utility is able to function to the fullest possible extent during and after an emergency.

The fact that many of Auckland’s lifeline utilities buckled during the floods points to failures to meet the basic requirements of the Act.

The Auckland Lifelines Group – of which Auckland Council, Auckland Airport, Vector and Watercare are members – falls under the National Lifelines Council. Both organisations have been helping Auckland’s essential utilities develop resilience and keep critical infrastructure running during an emergency.

They have also been calling for more investment in infrastructure resilience, including highlighting the problem in transportation.

Remove profit requirements

According to the 2020 edition of the New Zealand Critical Lifelines Infrastructure National Vulnerability Assessment, significant action is required to prevent lifeline utilities from being locked into inflexible or short-term response options.

The report also took a dim view of the funding and regulatory models for both public and private utility organisations that required a commercial return on resilient infrastructure improvement projects.

Read more:
Slippery slopes: why the Auckland storm caused so many landslides – and what can be done about it

Creating resilience in infrastructure should not require a commercial return on investment. Instead, resilience should be embedded in every decision made regarding infrastructure development and improvement.

The Infrastructure Commission endorses this view in their recently released report. The authors argued that making New Zealand’s infrastructure more resilient and investing in resilience planning will enable quicker recovery from natural and human-created disasters, minimising the impact on our society and economy.

Long-term planning needed

We need to rethink what infrastructure gets built and what gets retrofitted. We also need to reexamine how we incorporate and fund resilience thinking across the organisations that manage our lifeline utilities.

Resilience needs to start at the organisational level by engaging staff in problem solving, scenario planning and by providing training to develop innovative thinking.

Resilience also needs to be embedded at all levels of an organisation. Without training and advice, employees are less likely to be proactive and useful during an event.

During the recent flooding, the response from Auckland Airport, Auckland Transport and Auckland Council showed there was a lack of organisational resilience planning.

Read more:
Auckland floods: even stormwater reform won’t be enough – we need a ‘sponge city’ to avoid future disasters

But there is a more serious issue: we have infrastructure that is ageing, built in unsuitable places or built for today’s population, not the population of the future. Resilience requires an inter-generational approach, which means creating infrastructure that will suit growing populations and changes in the way we live.

Our research on flooding in Northland advocated for better community-led response plans that were integrated with infrastructure improvements and collaboration with councils to reduce the risk of future floods.

The current methods of decision making are not optimal, meaning infrastructure is built without an intergenerational view. We inevitably end up with infrastructure that is not fit for the populations they are supposed to serve, such as new roads that are congested soon after opening.

Nor do our design standards adapt swiftly to new pressures that come with climate change.

Read more:
Climate change is already putting the heat on insurance companies – Auckland’s floods could be a turning point

Robustness and redundancy

Infrastructure needs to have some robustness and redundancy. Robustness means being able to withstand hazard events without significant damage. Redundancy means spare capacity, such as alternative routes for transport.

With both, we have infrastructure that can operate during unusual conditions. For Auckland Transport, for example, this means rethinking routes and creating alternatives before events occur. It also means creating a network strong enough to cope with increased demands beyond business-as-usual traffic levels.

Utility providers don’t have to reinvent the wheel to identify what needs to change. Auckland Lifelines Group, the National Lifelines Council and Massey University’s School of Built Environment have done research to identify critical infrastructure, critical interdependencies between infrastructure and how to build resilient infrastructure.

Critical infrastructure – such as airports, significant roads and our water systems – should be treated as too important to fail. The recent floods are a warning that prioritising resilience for our infrastructure is urgently needed.

Read more:
The Auckland floods are a sign of things to come – the city needs stormwater systems fit for climate change

Suzanne Wilkinson receives funding from The Building Research Association of New Zealand (BRANZ) for research on resilience and zero carbon and the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) for an Endeavour Research Programme (CanConstructNZ).

– ref. Flood warning: NZ’s critical infrastructure is too important to fail – greater resilience is urgently needed – https://theconversation.com/flood-warning-nzs-critical-infrastructure-is-too-important-to-fail-greater-resilience-is-urgently-needed-198872

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ben Rich, Senior lecturer in History and International Relations, Curtin University

Mega-influencer Andrew Tate is once again back in the news as he battles charges of organised crime and human trafficking in Romania.

Tate gained infamy last year after being banned on most major social media platforms for promoting a variety of aggressively misogynistic positions designed to stir controversy and draw attention to his brand.

But while widespread public attention was drawn to Tate only recently, his reputation as a thought leader and “top g” in the online “manosphere” community has been longstanding.

Indeed, Tate’s ability to stoke and exploit the anxieties and grievances driving the manosphere are unprecedented, and have played a key role in him amassing millions of fans and hundreds of millions of dollars.

The lure of the ‘manosphere’

The manosphere is an overlapping collection of online men’s support communities that have emerged as a response to feminism, female empowerment, and the alienating forces of neoliberalism.

While this is widely understood, a lot less energy has been directed to understanding why and how men are attracted to these extreme communities in the first place.

The manosphere’s appeal can be perplexing, particularly for parents, teachers or friends trying to make sense of how the men in their lives suddenly adopt aggressively misogynistic views.

Read more:
The online ‘hierarchy of credibility’ that fuels influencers like Andrew Tate

But while the community’s content presents deeply concerning perspectives on women, it also offers explanations for, and solutions to, a very real set of issues facing young men.

A tranche of data illustrates these growing challenges. Men are rapidly falling behind in education engagement and outcomes. Rates of young male economic inactivity have risen considerably over the past two decades.

The intimate relations of young men also appear to be in decline. One report suggests rates of sexual activity have dropped by nearly 10% since 2002.

Suicide rates have risen significantly in men in particular over the past decade.

We’re also facing a loneliness crisis, which is particularly concentrated in young people and men.

The manosphere appeals to its audience because it speaks to the very real lives of young men under the above factors – romantic rejection, alienation, economic failure, loneliness, and a dim vision of the future.

The major problem lies in its diagnosis of the cause of male disenfranchisement, which fixates on the impacts of feminism. Here it contrasts the growing challenges faced by men with the increasing social, economic and political success experienced by women. This zero-sum claim posits that female empowerment must necessarily equate to male disempowerment, and is evidenced through simplified and pseudoscientific theories of biology and socioeconomics.

For many young men, their introduction to the manosphere begins not with hatred of women, but with a desire to dispel uncertainty about how the world around them works (and crucially, how relationships work).

The foundations of the manosphere may not strictly centre on misogyny, as is popularly imagined, but in young men’s search for connection, truth, control and community at a time when all are increasingly ill-defined.

Profiteering off anxiety

Since its inception, the manosphere has been rife with predatory influencers seeking to profit off the anxieties unleashed by this ambiguity.

Driven by a desire to reassert a romantic masculine aesthetic ideal in a world of social media unrealities, members of the manosphere often become willing consumers of a wide variety of products and services to “solve” their problems. These range from vitamin and gym supplements, personal coaching, self-help courses, and other subscription-based services.

But the influencers aren’t just capitalising on a sense of crisis passively – they actively cultivate it, as our research shows.

Figures like Tate, Canadian psychologist Jordan Peterson and “alpha” strongman Elliott Hulse expend huge amounts of energy and capital fomenting a sense of crisis around these issues, and positioning themselves at the centre. No more clearly was this illustrated than in Tate’s “Hustler’s University”, which created a series of exclusive chat rooms promising men a solution to their fears and centred on Tate’s personage and teachings.

Such communities solidify the claims made by their leaders, creating feedback loops that contribute to a climate of tension and hysteria. Members are actively encouraged to ridicule those who aren’t willing to acknowledge the “feminist conspiracies” that supposedly underpin the social and political world. Non-believers are seen as contemptible, weak and ignorant, dismissed through an ever-growing newspeak lexicon as “simps”, “cucks” and “betas”.

The community can also be mobilised to spread the message and brand of the influencer to the wider public, as demonstrated by Tate.

Having successfully isolated and indoctrinated community members, influencers can then rely on them as a persistent source of support and revenue, allowing them to further reinvest and continue this cycle of growth. This suggests a key way to push back on the wider effects of the manosphere is the targeted disruption of such feedback loops and the prevention of future ones emerging.

Empathy, patience and support

Tate and the manosphere didn’t manifest spontaneously. They’re symptoms of a deeper set of challenges young men are facing.

These problems won’t be addressed by simply deplatforming people like Tate. While this may often be necessary in the short term, savvier influencers will inevitably emerge, responding to the same entrenched issues and employing the tactics to greater effect, while avoiding the mistakes of their predecessors.

Read more:
‘Toxic masculinity’: what does it mean, where did it come from – and is the term useful or harmful?

In confronting the manosphere we need to understand and take seriously its appeal to lost men and the centrality of influencers in this process. We can be as critical of it as we want to be. But we also need to understand what it provides for many: a community and place of belonging, a defined enemy, direction, certainty, solutions to deep and systemic issues and, perhaps most importantly, hope.

We also need to avoid the kneejerk stigmatising and dismissal of people who fall into the manosphere. Simple ostracism tends only to entrench attitudes and reinforce the narratives of persecution spun by Tate and his ilk.

Instead, we need to use empathy, tolerance and patience to support men in ways that lead them away from these unpleasant boroughs of the internet and make them feel connected with wider society.

Ben Rich has received funding from the US State Department as part of a project on combatting extremism and disinformation. This includes components addressing the manosphere.

Eva Bujalka has received funding from the US State Department as part of a project on combatting extremism and disinformation. This includes components addressing the manosphere.

– ref. The draw of the ‘manosphere’: understanding Andrew Tate’s appeal to lost men – https://theconversation.com/the-draw-of-the-manosphere-understanding-andrew-tates-appeal-to-lost-men-199179

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Breadon, Program Director, Health and Aged Care, Grattan Institute

For the land of the fair go, Australia has work to do on our health. Although the average Australian’s life expectancy is very high, that’s not true for everyone.

Indigenous Australians, and Australians with little formal education, can expect to die about eight years younger than their fellow citizens. People who live in rural areas will die about two to three years earlier, on average, than people who live in cities.

And because chronic diseases create most of these gaps, these disadvantaged people will spend more years living in ill health than other Australians.

These statistics don’t begin to capture the immense suffering behind the numbers, or the deep injustice of gaping health gaps in a wealthy nation like ours.

The government has promised to set up a Centre for Disease Control (CDC), which will tackle both infectious and chronic disease. A new Grattan Institute report shows how it can be set up to drive down rates of chronic disease. This will help reduce health disparities, especially if the CDC builds equity into its DNA.

Chronic disease lies at the heart of health inequities

Much of the life-expectancy gap between the most and least disadvantaged Australians is explained by skewed rates of chronic disease.

The most disadvantaged fifth of Australians are about 20% more likely to be living with one chronic disease, and about twice as likely to be living with two or more, compared with the most advantaged fifth of Australians.

It’s estimated that about 80% of the gap in life expectancy between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians is caused by chronic diseases.

Gaps in health start before sickness

Some chronic diseases are difficult to prevent. There is little we can currently do to stop the onset of type one diabetes or cystic fibrosis, for example.

But other chronic diseases are the result of risk factors such as smoking, alcohol abuse, or being overweight or obese, which we can change.

These so-called modifiable risk factors are the cause of about 40% of the chronic disease burden in Australia. And, like chronic diseases, rates are significantly higher among disadvantaged Australians.

Compared with the most advantaged fifth of Australians, the most disadvantaged fifth are about 60% more likely to be obese, more than twice as likely to have high psychological distress, almost three times as likely to do no physical activity, and over three times as likely to smoke daily.

This means inequity is already baked in well before people get ill.

Isn’t being healthy a choice?

Modifiable risk factors are sometimes branded as “lifestyle choices”. But this glosses over the fact our choices are heavily influenced by environmental and social factors.

For example, more disadvantaged Australians are more likely to find it hard to get or afford sufficient healthy food, which increases the risk of obesity. The increased and often chronic stress that disadvantage brings is associated with smoking more, and may have links with obesity.

Disadvantage is also intertwined with fewer educational opportunities, and education is strongly linked to health because it provides people with better knowledge of health and healthy behaviours. It shapes employment opportunities and can provide a stronger sense of personal control, which helps people make healthier choices.

Many modifiable risk factors may seem like choices, but the causes are often structural. There’s little Australians living in disadvantage can do about these influences, but they all increase the chance of modifiable risk factors, and sickness.

A CDC has a chance to reduce health gaps

The proposed Australian Centre for Disease Control, promised by the Albanese government, is an opportunity to tackle these structural barriers.

The centre has a big job to do. Australia has fallen behind our peers when it comes to prevention. As our report shows, we spend about 2% of the health budget on public health, which is less than one-third of what Canada spends, less than half of what the United Kingdom spends, and far below the OECD average.

While many other countries have introduced sugar taxes or taken action to reduce people’s intake of salt and trans fats, Australia’s prevention progress has largely stalled.

Our report shows that to have an impact, the CDC must be set up for success, with independence and the right role and resources. And the federal and state governments must make a new funding deal to make the investments the centre recommends.

Read more:
How should an Australian ‘centre for disease control’ prepare us for the next pandemic?

A focus on fairness

Reducing risk factors across the population would have a big impact on health inequity. But to make the biggest gains, the communities at highest risk should be the focus. The CDC should understand who those communities are, and what will work for them.

One of its central roles should be providing technical advice to Australian governments. This advice must take equity into account.

When the centre looks at what works in prevention, it should consider who will benefit. Initiatives that disproportionately benefit disadvantaged groups should be valued more highly.

When the centre advises government on progress and targets, it should reflect not just how the average Australian is going, but also the status of groups that have traditionally been left behind.

To help the centre understand health disparities and the perspectives of people who experience them, the staff, leadership and culture of the centre should be diverse and inclusive, representing the broader community. And the centre should also listen to different groups that face the biggest barriers to good health, using a range of consultation and engagement methods.

Narrowing the health gap that divides Australians won’t happen overnight. And not all the structural barriers that create health inequalities can be solved by another government agency.

But for too long, these gaps have received too little attention. A strong, equity-focused CDC can help ensure that, when it comes to their health, all Australians get a fair go.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Fair health outcomes start with prevention. The new Centre for Disease Control can make it happen – https://theconversation.com/fair-health-outcomes-start-with-prevention-the-new-centre-for-disease-control-can-make-it-happen-199387

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Divya Narain, PhD Candidate, The University of Queensland

In a remote archipelago at the southernmost tip of India lies the Great Nicobar Island. This pristine ecosystem is a globally important nesting site of the largest turtles on Earth – leatherback turtles. But now, the site is threatened by a massive infrastructure plan.

The Indian government recently granted key approvals for an international container port on the island, which may prevent leatherback turtles from reaching their nesting sites.

Great Nicobar Island spans about 1,000 square kilometres and lies about halfway between India and Thailand. It is home to the indigenous Shompen and Nicobarese people, and a rich diversity of plant and animal species.

To date, the island has remained relatively untouched by large-scale development. The port proposal would change that.

A critically endangered turtle population

Leatherback turtles can grow up to two meters long and weigh as much as 700 kilograms. The species has existed since the age of the dinosaurs, but its numbers are in decline.

The sub-population of turtles that nests at Galathea Bay, where the port would be built, is listed as critically endangered.
The turtles forage in temperate coastal waters in Australia and Africa, before making the long annual journey to the island.

According to the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, loss of nesting sites is one of the key threats to the turtles’ survival. Other threats include fishing activities, collisions with boats, egg collection for human consumption, and ingestion of plastic waste.

Galathea Bay was also heavily damaged by the 2004 tsunami, which destroyed most of the beaches where leatherback turtles nest.

Read more:
Australian endangered species: Leatherback Turtle

Massive development, massive impact

The huge infrastructure project planned for Great Nicobar Island includes:

• a mega trans-shipment port, where large volumes of cargo will be moved from one vessel to another for shipping to another port

• an international airport which will handle 4,000 passengers an hour at its peak

• a power plant

• a new township.

Experts have raised concern about the environmental damage the project will cause. In particular, they say the port’s construction and operation is likely to prevent the leatherback turtle from accessing nesting sites.

The plan includes constructing breakwaters – barriers built in the sea to protect the port from waves. The barriers reduce the opening to Galathea Bay by 90% – from 3 kilometres to 300 metres.

Dredging and construction are likely to significantly alter other coastal habitats on the island, including mangroves, coral reefs, sandy and rocky beaches, coastal forests and estuaries.

One media report warned the plan will involve clearing almost a million trees.

The port is also likely to damage the habitat of scores of other rare and endemic species including macaques, shrews and pigeons.

Read more:
India must stop deforesting its mountains if it wants to fight floods

How was such a disastrous project approved?

The approvals granted so far rest on a proposal to “offset” the environmental damage caused by the port by improving bioldiversity elsewhere.

In this case, the offset involves planting trees in the Indian state of Haryana, thousands of kilometres from the project site and in a vastly different ecological zone.

This is allowed under Indian law. But it’s a gross violation of the internationally accepted “like for like” principle guiding biodiversity offsetting. This principle requires that the biodiversity affected by a given project be conserved through an ecologically equivalent offset, so no net loss of biodiversity occurs.

The Great Nicobar Island plan will damage complex and diverse tropical and coastal ecosystems and several rare and endemic species. This would purportedly be “offset” by planting trees in a sub-tropical semi-arid ecosystem thousands of kilometres away.

There is no provision in the plan to compensate for damage to turtle nesting. This alone violates the “like for like” principle.

Even more worryingly, research has shown most compensatory tree-planting in India involves monoculture timber species, which does not encourage a wide variety of native plant and animal species.

Looking ahead

The approvals granted to the port project contain a number of conditions. They reportedly include:

• establishing a long-term research unit, focused on sea turtles, including a base at Great Nicobar Island

• requiring that the company behind the project has a “well laid down environmental policy duly approved by the board of directors”

• where possible, safeguarding trees that contain nesting holes for endemic owls.

But according to India’s Conservation Action Trust, approvals were granted before important impact assessment studies were carried out. What’s more, the conditions do not stipulate that work must stop if damage occurs to Indigenous communities or the environment.

Any large development project affecting a critically endangered species should meet rigorous environmental standards. This includes ensuring biodiversity offsets are consistent with internationally accepted principles.

And if the harm cannot be adequately offset, the project should not be allowed to proceed.

Read more:
A China-backed dam in Indonesia threatens a rare great ape – and that’s just the tip of the iceberg

Divya Narain does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. A mega port in India threatens the survival of the largest turtles on Earth – https://theconversation.com/a-mega-port-in-india-threatens-the-survival-of-the-largest-turtles-on-earth-197021

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert McLachlan, Professor in Applied Mathematics, Massey University

A recent parliamentary inquiry into passenger rail drew 1700 submissions, suggesting growing support for the return of long-distance trains in Aotearoa.

The government has committed the country to decarbonisation targets that require significant cuts to transport-related emissions. But decarbonising long-distance travel is not part of the plan – the national rail operator KiwiRail remains focused on freight.

We argue the revival of long-distance passenger rail needs to be part Aotearoa’s strategy to bring emissions down.

The arguments for intercity passenger rail centre on connecting communities, equity in transport options, reduced emissions and lower energy use.

The end of the decline?

After a long decline – detailed in André Brett’s history of the New Zealand network Can’t Get There From Here – there were some gains in 2022.

Following initial plans to turn it into a tourist train, the Northern Explorer is back running between Auckland and Wellington. Passenger numbers on Te Huia, a rail service between Auckland and Hamilton, have doubled – helped by half-price fares – since its launch in April 2021.

The commuter train Capital Connection attracts good passenger numbers on its week-day only run between Wellington and Palmerston North, despite old and unreliable rolling stock. Work is underway on improving passenger rail near Wellington.

Campaigning for rail

Several new campaigns are pushing for further improvements to passenger rail.

Save Our Trains is seeking a “comprehensive national strategy for inter-regional passenger rail services built around concerns for climate action, accessibility, affordability and economic development”.

Making Rail Work has developed a proposal to reinstate the Kaimai Express linking Auckland and Tauranga. A report for local government supported the case for more frequent services linking North Island towns.

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Arguing for the restoration of the Auckland–Wellington night train, public transport planner Nicolas Reid suggested such a service “would have the potential to replace up to 150,000 long-distance car trips or flights per year”.

Most controversially, the group Restore Passenger Rail staged a series of nonviolent direct actions to draw attention to the issue, closing motorways and attempting (unsuccessfully) to address the cross-party inquiry into passenger rail from the top of a motorway gantry.

Rail cuts transport emissions

Transport comprises 45% of Aotearoa’s domestic carbon dioxide emissions, but it is hard to decarbonise. It requires a combination of changes to technology, behaviour and infrastructure. But the significant emission and energy benefits of using intercity and regional rail, rather than driving or flying, are well established globally.

New Zealand’s emissions reduction plan aims for a 20% reduction (per capita) in driving by 2035, through improved urban planning and better travel options. But it does not mention intercity rail.

As half of all kilometres driven are on the state highway network, this is a major omission. Auckland Council’s transport emission reduction plan also aims to reduce domestic aviation emissions by half by 2030, before promised electric or hydrogen-powered planes can make any real impact.

Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch are important, but they only comprise half the population. Travel within and between the smaller cities must also be decarbonised, or the whole country will fail its targets.

Transport investments misplaced

To reinstate fast and efficient passenger rail across Aotearoa, large capital and carbon investments are required. But that is partly because the rail network has been run down for decades, while considerable investment has gone into roads.

Yet, these new roads create more traffic. Further road building, such as an expressway between Ōtaki and Levin, is being promoted, even though we know this project has an extremely poor economic return and will induce more driving.

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Climate explained: does building and expanding motorways really reduce congestion and emissions?

When good services are on offer, people tend to use them. In Auckland, the then rundown suburban train service was used by only one million people each year in 1994. But a range of improvements saw passenger numbers top 20 million in 2017, with further growth expected once the City Rail link is completed.

Demographic changes support the return of passenger rail. Aotearoa has an aging population, especially in its smaller centres. Many lack airports and driving can become problematic for older age groups. Small towns have also lost many services and visits to bigger centres for medical appointments and other services have become more important.

Most towns still have railway lines connecting them to larger centres. The remaining private coach network suffers from infrequent service, poor quality and a lack of connectivity and integrated ticketing. If, in the UK, the rich take trains and the poor take buses, we suspect in Aotearoa the rich fly or drive and the poor take the bus or don’t travel at all.

Not everyone drives, particularly children and old people; and of those who do drive, some would prefer not to. Internationally, we’ve seen a long-term decline in the number of young people gaining drivers’ licences.

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For those living in larger urban centres with good public transport and biking infrastructure or in 15-minute neighbourhoods, there is far less need to own a car. To make the necessary cuts to transport emissions in our larger cities, we need to re-imagine car ownership as an option rather than a necessity.

It might be a lot to lay on the humble train, but civilisation is in a tight spot. We need to collectively halve emissions by 2030, while also laying the groundwork for a truly sustainable future. This means wise use of resources – long-lasting, economical infrastructure based on proven technology, combined with renewable electricity. Trains do that.

Paul Callister is affiliated with organisation.

Save Our Trains group

Robert McLachlan ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Why restoring long-distance passenger rail makes sense in New Zealand — for people and the climate – https://theconversation.com/why-restoring-long-distance-passenger-rail-makes-sense-in-new-zealand-for-people-and-the-climate-199381

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anika Stobart, Senior Associate, Grattan Institute

If you step into a newly built school these days, chances are you will see classrooms that look very different to the classrooms most of us spent our school years in as children.

On a recent visit to a new primary school in Melbourne, Grattan Institute’s education team entered a large room that contained two classes, separated not by a wall but a wide pillar that left room for teachers and students to move between the two “classroom” spaces.

In the first space, students were leaning forward at their desks, concentrating on their teacher. The room was very noisy. The teacher was only metres from her students, but her voice was all but drowned out by the second “classroom” on the other side.

This appears to be the trend in new classroom buildings around Australia.

For example, in 2017 the New South Wales government committed to building open-plan classrooms, each for up to 120 students, at more than 100 new schools. The Victorian government is building “new flexible learning communities”.

What does the research say about open-plan classrooms?

Arguments in favour of open-plan classrooms use phrases such as “21st century teaching” and “innovative design”.

The idea is to have flexible classroom spaces that can cater for large groups of students, while also allowing students to break into smaller groups, directing their own learning while receiving support from a team of teachers working collaboratively.

But there is limited evidence open-plan classrooms help learning. In 2018 the University of Melbourne published a systematic review that only found 21 relevant studies since the 1960s that evaluated the impact of educational spaces on student learning outcomes. Of these, the studies showed open-plan environments had mixed effects on academic performance.

We do know too much noise is bad for learning. A 2015 Australian study compared speech perception in traditional and open-plan kindergarten classrooms and found noise coming from other classes in the open-plan setting made it more likely for students to misunderstand their teacher. The study found traditional classrooms were the only classroom type to be within or close to recommended noise levels.

Many open-plan learning spaces don’t align with internationally recognised evidence-based strategies for high-impact teaching.

For example, explicit teaching – where the teacher explains key concepts and procedures clearly and models how to solve problems to the whole class – is difficult to do well in a noisy environment. Imagine trying to teach division of fractions to your Year 5 class while the Year 4 class on the other side of the pillar practices their Mandarin oral language presentations.

Too much noise is bad for all students

Of course, traditional classrooms can also be noisy, but a 2013 United Kingdom survey of 2,500 high school students across six schools suggested students at schools with traditional classrooms were more positive about their school acoustics than students at schools with open-plan classrooms.

Too much noise is bad news for all students. But it is particularly worrying for students who have issues with hearing, auditory processing, and other additional learning needs, such as ADHD.

This is also inconsistent with state governments’ stated priorities of ensuring schools are inclusive spaces that cater for students with additional learning needs.

New classrooms should be built using evidence

State governments need to review the existing research – and seek more if needed – and ensure all new classrooms can support the learning of all students. This includes those with additional learning needs and those unlucky enough to be seated at the back of an open-plan classroom.

This is consistent with a 2022 NSW parliamentary inquiry into school infrastructure, which recommended school design should follow evidence, not fads.

Where necessary, state governments should also provide schools with funding to fix existing open-plan classrooms so teachers can reduce noisy distractions. Teachers should not have to build their own classroom walls “with whiteboards and shelving”.

Read more:
Classroom design should follow evidence, not architectural fads

Some state governments are spending significant funds building new schools and upgrading others in coming years. For example, the NSW government is spending A$8.6 billion on school infrastructure over the next four years. Queensland is spending A$2 billion on education infrastructure this year alone.

While investments in school infrastructure are of course welcome, the danger is many classrooms may be built in ways that undermine effective teaching. Classrooms designs should not create more work for teachers, just to make sure their students can hear them – and each other – speak.

Brigette Garbin contributed to the analysis of this piece, and previously worked as a researcher at the Grattan Institute.

Anika Stobart is a senior associate at the Grattan Institute. The Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute’s activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities as disclosed on its website.

Jordana Hunter is Education Program Director at the Grattan Institute.

– ref. Open-plan classrooms are trendy but there is little evidence to show they help students learn – https://theconversation.com/open-plan-classrooms-are-trendy-but-there-is-little-evidence-to-show-they-help-students-learn-199591

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Davidson, Research Associate, Gender and Women’s History Research Centre, Australian Catholic University

For Valentine’s Day, some couples only roll their eyes at each other in mutual cynicism. The capitalisation of love in the modern world can certainly seem banal.

But Valentine’s Day gifts are hardly a contemporary invention. People have been celebrating the day and gifting love tokens for hundreds of years.

We should first turn to Geoffrey Chaucer, the 14th-century poet, civil servant and keen European traveller. Chaucer’s poem from the 1380s, The Parliament of Fowls, is held to be the first reference to February 14 as a day about love.

This day was already a feast day of several mysterious early Roman martyred Saint Valentines, but Chaucer described it as a day for people to choose their lovers. He knew that was easier said than done.

The narrator of the poem is unsuccessful in love, despairing that life is short compared with how long it takes to learn to love well. He falls asleep and dreams of a garden in which all the different birds of the world have gathered.

Nature explains to the assembled flocks that, like every year on St Valentine’s Day, they have come to pick their partners in accordance with her rules. But this process causes confusion and debate: the birds can’t agree what it means to follow her rules because they all value different things in their partners.

Read more:
St Valentine’s – a minor day in a medieval calendar packed with festivals

Legal and emotional significance

Like today, in Chaucer’s time gift-giving could be highly ritualised and symbolise intention and commitment. In Old and Middle English, a “wed” was any sort of token pledged to guarantee a promise. It was not until the 13th century that a “wedding” came to mean a nuptial ceremony.

The same period saw marriage transform into a Christianised and unbreakable commitment (a sacrament of the Church). New conventions of love developed in songs, stories and other types of art.

These conventions influenced broader cultural ideas of emotion: love letters were written, grand acts of service were celebrated, and tokens of love were given.

Rings, brooches, girdles (belts), gloves, gauntlets (sleeves), kerchiefs or other personalised textiles, combs, mirrors, purses, boxes, vessels and pictures – and even fish – are just some examples of romantic gifts recorded from the late middle ages.

In stories, gifts could be imbued with magical powers. In the 13th century, in a history of the world, Rudolf von Ems recorded how Moses, when obliged to return home and leave his first wife Tharbis, an Ethiopian princess, had two rings made.

The one he gave her would cause Tharbis to forget him. He always wore its pair which kept her memory forever fresh in his mind.

Outside of stories, gifts could have legal significance: wedding rings, important from the 13th century, could prove that a marriage had occurred by evidencing the intention and consent of the giver and recipient.

Read more:
Single on Valentine’s Day and happily so

The art of loving

Like Chaucer, 20th-century German psychologist Erich Fromm thought people could learn the art of loving. Fromm thought love was an act of giving not just material things, but one’s joy, interest, understanding, knowledge, humour and sadness.

While these gifts might take some time and practice, there are more straightforward ideas from history. Manufactured cards have dominated since the industrial revolution, taking their place alongside other now traditional presents such as flowers, jewellery, intimate apparel and consumables (now more often chocolates than fish). All can be personalised for that intimate touch.

There have, of course, been weirder examples of love gifts, such as Angelina Jolie and Billy Bob Thornton exchanging necklaces with silver pendants smeared with each other’s blood.

Artist Dora Maar was so upset when her notoriously bad lover Pablo Picasso complained about having to trade a painting for a ruby ring she immediately threw the ring in the Seine. Picasso soon replaced it with another, this one featuring Maar’s portrait.

A good love token can long outlast the feelings that prompt its giving: a flower pressed in a book, a trinket at the bottom of a box, a fading heartfelt card or a bittersweet song that jolts you back to an earlier time. In this way, the meaning of gifts can change as they become reminders that all things pass.

Read more:
Valentine’s Day: the pressures of shopping for romance

Clare Davidson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. From Chaucer to chocolates: how Valentine’s Day gifts have changed over the centuries – https://theconversation.com/from-chaucer-to-chocolates-how-valentines-day-gifts-have-changed-over-the-centuries-198512

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The Albanese government has unveiled a new implementation plan for Closing the Gap with $424 million over several years in additional money for “practical action”.

“The gap is not closing fast enough and on some measures it is going backwards,” the government said in a statement from several ministers and also including the lead convenor of the Coalition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peak Organisations, Pat Turner.

The initiatives come amid a spate of publicity about the problems in Alice Springs and elsewhere in the Northern Territory that, while they have been worsened by alcohol, also reflect shortages of housing, a lack of jobs, and other long-standing issues.

New measures in the implementation plan – the second such plan, with the first coming under the former government are –

• $150 million over four years for water infrastructure, especially targeting communities that at present do not have access to clean drinking water. The money comes from the National Water Grid Fund

• $111.7 million federal contribution to a new one-year partnership with the Northern Territory government to build remote housing

• $11.8 million over two years to make food more affordable and accessible in remote communities

• continued funding of $68.6 million over two years for family violence and prevention legal service providers to deliver legal and non-legal support to women and children

• $21.9 million over five years to support families affected by family violence and at risk of separation, through the provision of seven “place-based, trauma-aware and culturally responsive healing programs” to intervene early and keep families together

• $38.4 million over four years to boost on-country education for remote students, including greater access to junior rangers and more choice for families of culturally appropriate distance learning

• $21.6 million to support quality boarding for rural and remote students for an additional year.

The measures will be delivered in partnership with Indigenous organisations.

Minister for Indigenous Australians Linda Burney said: “We saw the outcomes in the 2022 Closing the Gap Annual Report and know that we need to be doing more as a government.

“This additional funding is a concrete commitment from the Albanese government to prioritise Closing the Gap and see sustained progress.

“Our measures are going to be more specific and more targeted, making real impacts that complement work underway in states and territories, and back-in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander community-controlled organisations to lead work in their communities.”

Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek said it was shocking that some communities did not have reliable drinking water.

“Many of these communities are remote, First Nations communities.

“There are towns that are unable to run dialysis machines as there is not enough clean and safe water. There are communities where the heavy metals and minerals in the water are at such concentrations that the water cannot be consumed safely. We want to start to change that with this investment.

“We are targeting $150 million from the National Water Grid Fund to support critical water infrastructure for remote First Nations communities.

“This is only possible because last year we changed the Investment Framework of the National Water Grid to allow investment in town water supply projects.”

Meanwhile Burney has sent a sharp message to Peter Dutton on the Voice, in calling attention to his boycott of the 2008 apology by Kevin Rudd to the stolen generations (something Dutton more recently said he regretting doing).

In a speech on Sunday marking the 15th anniversary of the apology Burney (without naming Dutton) said: “I know that some people who boycotted that historic day in 2008 have since expressed their regret. They now admit that it was a mistake. And I say to those people – don’t make the same mistake again.”

Dutton and the Liberals have yet to say what attitude the party will adopt to the Voice referendum. He is planning to attend another meeting of the referendum working group and says his questions on the Voice have not been adequately answered by the government.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Albanese government announces $424 million to narrow a gap that is not closing fast enough – https://theconversation.com/albanese-government-announces-424-million-to-narrow-a-gap-that-is-not-closing-fast-enough-199750

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Thousands of boat arrivals whose futures have been in limbo for a decade or more will be able to apply from Monday to be permanent Australian residents.

The Minister for Home Affairs, Clare O’Neil and the Immigration Minister, Andrew Giles, have announced about 19,000 people on Temporary Protection Visas and Safe Haven Enterprise Visas will be eligible to apply.

The announcement fulfils a Labor election commitment. The decision only applies to people who entered Australia before Operation Sovereign Borders and who hold or have applied for a TPV or SHEV before Tuesday.

SHEV is a variation of a temporary protection visa. It has to be renewed every five years, compared to every three for a TPV. It was introduced some years ago to encourage people to go to regional areas. While in theory it gave a road to permanency, only one SHEV-holder has achieved that.

The ministers said just over 2500 people have had their TPVs or SHEVs refused or cancelled, and they will be expected to leave Australia.

The TPV/SHEV applications of more than 5000 people are in a review process which will continue.

The Home Affairs department will invite people on visas that are about to expire to apply for permanency, while other people will be able to apply online from late next month. Once a permanent visa is granted, the person will immediately become eligible for all social security payments, the National Disability Insurance Scheme (N, and higher education assistance, as well as continuing to have access to Medicare.

They will be eligible for citizenship when they meet the requirements and to sponsor family members under the migration program’s family stream.

Giles said: “There are thousands of TPV and SHEV holders in the community that have endured ten years of uncertainty due to the policies of the previous Liberal government.

“TPV and SHEV holders work, pay taxes, start businesses, employ Australians and build lives in our communities – often in rural and regional areas. Without permanent visas however, they’ve been unable to get a loan to buy a house, build their businesses or pursue further education. It makes no sense – economically or socially – to keep them in limbo.”

The government is anxious that the granting of permanency to this group is not taken by people smugglers as a signal to test its resolve on border protection.

O’Neil said: “Let me be crystal clear – if you try to enter Australia without a valid visa you will be turned back or returned to your port of origin. There is zero chance of settling in Australia under Operation Sovereign Borders.

“The Australian Defence Force are patrolling our waters to intercept and return any boats that try to enter.”

Last week the government had parliament urgently renew the designation of Nauru as a centre for detaining unauthorised arrivals. The designation had inadvertently been allowed to lapse.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Boat arrivals on temporary protection visas have access to permanent residency – https://theconversation.com/boat-arrivals-on-temporary-protection-visas-have-access-to-permanent-residency-199751

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rob Heinsohn, Professor of Evolutionary and Conservation Biology, Australian National University

From pocket knives to smart phones, humans keep inventing ever-more-sophisticated tools. However, the notion that tool use is an exclusively human trait was shattered in the 1960s when Jane Goodall observed our closest living relatives, chimpanzees, retrieving termites from holes with stripped twigs.

Tool use among non-human animals is hotly debated. It’s often thought a big brain is needed to understand the properties of objects, how to finely manipulate them, and how to teach this to other members of a species.

Until recently, humans and chimps stood out among tool-using species. They were considered the only species that used “toolsets”, wherein a collection of different tools is used to achieve a task. They were also thought to be the only animals that carried toolsets, in anticipation of needing them later.

A third species joined the exclusive club of toolset makers in 2021, when scientists in Indonesia saw wild Goffin’s cockatoos using three distinct types of tools to extract seeds from fruit. And in research published this week, researchers have shown Goffin’s cockatoos can also take the next leap of logic, by carrying a set of tools they’ll need for a future task.

Bright, enigmatic creatures

Parrots have proven to be something of an enigma. They’re known to be highly intelligent creatures, yet they’ve rarely been observed using tools in the wild.

Curiously, the only parrot species known to use tools regularly in the wild is Australia’s own palm cockatoo, which uses them in a very unusual way. Males in northern Australia “manufacture” drumsticks and seedpod tools to use during their complex mating displays. They grasp the drumstick or seedpod in the left foot and beat it against a hollow trunk in a rhythmic performance, with all the hallmarks of human instrumental music.

The 2021 study of wild Goffin’s cockatoos was particularly significant as it showed the birds’ tools were similar in complexity to those made by chimps, meaning their cognitive skills could be directly compared.

A small number of Goffin’s cockatoos were seen crafting a set of tools designed for three different purposes – wedging, cutting, and spooning – and using them sequentially to access seeds in fruits. This requires similar brain power to a chimp’s method of using multiple tools when fishing for termites.

Anticipating problems

An initial stumbling block in interpreting chimps’ use of toolsets was that nobody could show whether they visualised a collection of small tasks as one problem, or used single tools to solve separate problems.

Researchers finally solved this when they observed chimpanzees not only carrying their toolsets with them, but doing this flexibly and according to the exact problems they faced. They must have been thinking it through from start to finish!

This is precisely what Goffin’s cockatoos have now been shown to do (albeit in a captive setting). They’ve been confirmed as the third species that can not only use tools, but can carry toolsets in anticipation of needing them later on.

Inspired by the toolsets chimpanzees use and transport in the wild for extracting termites from the ground, the authors of the study designed clever experiments to test Goffin’s cockatoos under similar circumstances.

The birds, initially ten in total, had to extract cashews from boxes that required either one or two tool types. They were tested in various ways to examine their flexibility and innovation, but the pièce de resistance came when reaching the box with the tools required additional movement, including climbing a ladder, and horizontal and vertical flight.

Though only five of the ten birds made it through the earlier experiments, four of those that did tended to transport both tools in one go, in anticipation of needing them to open the two-tool box. In other words, these birds could categorise both tools as a “toolset” and use it accordingly. Mission accomplished!

Nothing wrong with a bird brain

But what about needing a big brain for complex tasks?

Like primates, some bird species have enlarged forebrains that provide them enhanced cognitive abilities including insight and innovation, understanding of others’ mental states, symbolic communication, episodic memory and future planning.

Parrots are especially well endowed with these abilities, so we shouldn’t be surprised they can use toolsets as easily as chimpanzees. Rather, what’s surprising is that more parrots haven’t been seen transporting toolsets for future use.

One has to conclude it’s because wild parrots are rarely presented with problems that require this. Parrots have powerful feet and beaks that allow them to reach the most difficult places and break the hardest fruits and seeds. Yet bright individuals in captivity can spontaneously invent new tools to solve new problems – so there’s no doubting how capable they are.

This new study is further proof parrots belong in the animal world’s exclusive version of Mensa. Between the considered planning shown by Goffin’s cockatoos, and the palm cockatoo’s ability to play instruments, it seems we’ve only scratched the surface of what these remarkable birds can achieve.

Read more:
Polly knows probability: this parrot can predict the chances of something happening

Rob Heinsohn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Goffin’s cockatoo named third species that carries toolsets around in preparation for future tasks – https://theconversation.com/goffins-cockatoo-named-third-species-that-carries-toolsets-around-in-preparation-for-future-tasks-199408

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Isaac Gross, Lecturer in Economics, Monash University

After lifting interest rates for a record nine times in a row, and flagging more raises still to come, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest set of forecasts make for grim reading.

The forecasts are part of the central bank’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, its main communication (aside from interest rates) on how it sees the economy faring over coming few years.

The bad news is the bank tips economic growth to slow, inflation to remain high, spending to stagnate, unemployment to increase, and real wages to fall further.

The good news is that it could be wrong.

1. Growth is expected to slow

The central bank expects Australia’s economy to slow this year due to rising interest rates, higher cost of living, and declining house prices. It tips GDP growth for 2022 will be 2.75% (the Australian Bureau of Statistics won’t publish this data until March), and 1.5% over 2023 and 2024. This compares to the RBA’s expectation three months ago of 3% growth in 2022 but the same prediction for this year and the next.

RBA GDP growth forecasts

2. Inflation will remain high

The bank says inflation, which hit 7.8% in 2022, is likely to have peaked and predicts it will stay high for several months, but will decline to 4.5% by the end of 2023. By mid-2025 it should be back to 3% – the top end of the bank’s inflation target range of 2-3%.

RBA headline inflation forecasts

However, the pace of this fall depends on wages and prices. The central bank acknowledges it could be quicker or slower. Its outlook for household spending is also uncertain, due to factors such as rising interest rates, higher inflation and declining housing prices.

Australia’s consumer price inflation has been high due to factors including global supply-chain disruptions caused by the pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, strong domestic demand, a tight labour market, and capacity constraints.

The RBA expects rising energy prices will continue to drive inflation but that this will be offset by the federal government’s Energy Price Relief Plan, which involves price caps on gas and coal, and bill subsidies for households and businesses.

Read more:
Will price caps on coal and gas bring power prices down? An expert isn’t so sure

Price increases for goods such as food and furniture are expected to moderate. But the cost of services will continue to rise, due to wage growth.

RBA inflation forecasts

This is the main reason the RBA has flagged more interest rate hikes this year. It is determined to get inflation back to its target band, and will keep increasing borrowing rates until it is sure this goal will be achieved.

Read more:
RBA warns of at least 2 more interest rate rises in coming months, as the economic outlook worsens

3. Household consumption will stagnate

The monetary policy statement expects higher consumer prices, higher interest payments and lower household net wealth to curb consumer spending in 2023.

But it expects spending to improve once interest rate rises stop, household wealth recovers and disposable incomes are boosted by tax cuts. The household saving ratio (which doubled during the pandemic) is expected to decline then increase, returning to pre-pandemic levels in 2024.

4. Unemployment will rise

The RBA expects the unemployment rate to remain at about 3.5% until mid-2023, and then to rise to 4.5% as demand for labour moderates.

RBA unemployment rate forecasts

Jobs growth is forecast to slow from 4.8% in 2022 to about 1% by mid-2024. Despite this, the participation rate in the labour force is not expected to fall, due to structural trends such as higher female and older worker participation.

5. Real wages will still fall

The RBA’s forecast for wages growth is now higher than three months ago, due to a tight labour market, higher staff turnover, higher inflation outcomes and Fair Work Commission wage decisions. It tips the Wage Price Index (WPI), which hasn’t been above 4% in a decade, to hit 4.25% in late 2023.

Given the inflation rate, however, this won’t be enough to stop real wages from continuing to fall. The WPI is then tipped to decline to 3.75% in mid-2025 as the demand for labour subsides and the unemployment rate rises.

Uncertainty remains high

These forecasts make for grim reading. But they could all be quite wrong.

As the saying goes, it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future. Huge uncertainties hang over the global economy, including the war in Ukraine, the emergence of new COVID variants, and the unique challenges of recovering from the pandemic.

That means all these forecasts could be – and likely will be – wrong in one dimension or another. Even the RBA governor’s very clear message that there will be more interest rate rises this year could change if the prevailing circumstances do too. Only time will tell.

Isaac Gross does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. RBA’s latest forecasts are grim. Here are 5 reasons why – https://theconversation.com/rbas-latest-forecasts-are-grim-here-are-5-reasons-why-199509

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Aaron Tang, PhD Scholar in Climate Governance, Australian National University

A group of US scientists this week proposed an unorthodox scheme to combat global warming: creating large clouds of Moon dust in space to reflect sunlight and cool the Earth.

In their plan, we would mine dust on the Moon and shoot it out towards the Sun. The dust would stay between the Sun and Earth for around a week, making sunlight around 2% dimmer at Earth’s surface, after which it would disperse and we would shoot out more dust.

The proposal, which involves launching some 10 million tonnes of Moon dust into space each year, is in some ways ingenious – and if it works as advertised from a technical perspective, it might buy the world some vital time to rein in carbon emissions.

Unfortunately, but also unsurprisingly, the story of Moon dust reflection isn’t as simple as it seems.

Why Moon dust?

Proposed measures to cool Earth by reducing the amount of sunlight reaching the surface are often called “solar geoengineering” or “solar radiation management”.

The most-discussed method involves injecting a thin layer of aerosol particles into Earth’s upper atmosphere.

However, tinkering with the atmosphere in this way is likely to affect rainfall and drought patterns, and may have other unintended consequences such as damage to the ozone layer.

Read more:
Trying to cool the Earth by dimming sunlight could be worse than global warming

Moon dust in space should avoid these pitfalls, as it would leave our atmosphere untouched.

Others have suggested deflecting sunlight with gigantic filters or mirrors in space, or swarms of artificial satellites.

Moon dust looks pretty good compared with these ideas: Moon dust is plentiful, and launching dust clouds from the Moon’s lower gravity would require substantially less energy than similar launches from Earth.

So, what’s the problem?

Too slow, too clumsy

One of solar geoengineering’s core selling points is supposed to be speed. Reflecting sunlight is at best a way to rapidly stave off short-term catastrophic warming impacts, buying time for renewable energy transitions and removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.

Global injection of aerosols into the atmosphere, for instance, may require development of special aircraft. This is certainly no trivial task, but definitely doable in the next decade or so.

Moon dust ambitions would be much slower. There are several major engineering and logistical hurdles to overcome.

At minimum, we would need Moon bases, lunar mining infrastructure, large-scale storage, and a way to launch the dust into space.

No human has even set foot on the Moon in more than 50 years. While China is looking to establish a Moon base by 2028, followed by the US in 2034, a well-functioning mining and dust launching system is likely many decades away.

Another advantage of solar geoengineering is meant to be fine tuning.

Injecting aerosols into the atmosphere can in theory be fine-tuned to reduce negative side effects. Changing where aerosol injections take place, for instance, can drastically change potential side effects and its risk profile.

A giant space cloud offers no such precision.

A law and policy vacuum

To make matters worse, the world currently has little in the way of coherent policy or governance for space and the Moon. Many fundamental questions about human activity in space, such as how to manage the growing layer of bullet-speed space junk orbiting the Earth, are unanswered.

Also unanswered is another fundamental question: is Moon mining even legal? Who “owns” space, and the resources in it?

At present, we have a patchwork of contradictory policies.

Read more:
The Artemis I mission marks the start of a new space race to mine the Moon

The 1967 Outer Space Treaty prohibits “appropriation” of space resources (implying a ban on mining), and Article 11.3 of the 1979 Moon Treaty states that the Moon’s resources cannot become property of a country, group or person.

However, the US, Russia and China have not signed the Moon Treaty. In fact, the US has Obama-era legislation, a Trump-era executive order, and a non-binding international agreement – the Artemis Accords – that all emphasise commercial resource extraction.

With such contradictory policy in place, lunar mining is a fundamental legal grey area. Shooting Moon dust off into space is another legal dilemma several steps down the line.

As above, so below

Such a legal patchwork exists because of broader political firewalls.

Similarly to how the 20th-century space race reflected Cold War geopolitics, contemporary space governance is shaped by today’s political rifts. Russia and China have not joined the Artemis Accords, deciding (ironically together) to go it alone. But disagreements over a non-binding agreement are just the tip of the iceberg.

Political disagreements over Moon dust deployment could prove far more dangerous. Different countries could prefer different extents of cooling, or whether Moon dust cooling should be used at all.

Even the proposed “launch system” for dust, essentially a giant electromagnetic railgun (of the kind currently used to launch fighter jets), could spark security and weaponisation concerns.

These disagreements could leak into terrestrial politics, further exacerbating political divisions. At worst, these disagreements may cascade into armed conflict or sabotage of lunar infrastructure.

Space is another frontier for political conflict, and one that Moon dust reflection schemes could worsen. Such conflict also compromises a cooperative and altruistic Moon dust deployment.

Prime space real estate

Even if the implementation and political issues were resolved, there are plenty more.

For example, the Moon dust would linger around the “Lagrange point” between Earth and the Sun, where the gravitational forces of the planet and the star balance out.

Unfortunately, this valuable piece of space real estate is already occupied by satellites including the Solar & Heliospheric Observatory and the Deep Space Climate Observatory.

These could perhaps be moved or decommissioned, but that would be expensive and create new risks.

Read more:
Betting on speculative geoengineering may risk an escalating ‘climate debt crisis’

In sum, the Moon dust proposal does address some of the problems with Earth-based solar geoengineering. But it would likely be too slow to dampen the short-term impacts of climate change, and would in any case face diplomatic obstacles that may well be insurmountable.

To their credit, the authors do acknowledge their work has limitations, saying in a press release:

We aren’t experts in climate change, or the rocket science needed to move mass from one place to the other. We’re just exploring different kinds of dust on a variety of orbits to see how effective this approach might be.

So instead of worrying about displacing satellites, we are better off focusing on replacing fossil fuels. The solutions to climate change are right in front of us, not in the stars.

Aaron Tang has received funding from the Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship.

– ref. Can clouds of Moon dust combat climate change? – https://theconversation.com/can-clouds-of-moon-dust-combat-climate-change-199592

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hussein Dia, Professor of Future Urban Mobility, Swinburne University of Technology

The ACT is changing how it calculates car registration fees. Instead of being based on a car’s weight, the fee the owner pays will be based on the greenhouse gas emissions it produces.

Up to now, owners of cleaner but typically heavier electric vehicles have paid more for registration than those of high-polluting but lighter vehicles powered by petrol or diesel engines. Emissions-based fees will reverse that situation.

The ACT was already offering two years of free registration for electric vehicles up to mid-2024. Under the new policy, from May 25 this year, owners of new and used electric vehicles will pay a discounted fee once their two years of free registration is over. The remaining car fleet will transition to the new system on July 1 2024.

An emissions-based registration fee is a sensible policy worth adopting Australia-wide. It’s already in place in many other nations that have much higher uptakes of electric vehicles.

Read more:
Australia is failing on electric vehicles. California shows it’s possible to pick up the pace

Why is this policy change important?

Transport is Australia’s third-largest – and fastest-growing – source of greenhouse gas emissions. Cars produce about half of these transport emissions.

Most of Australia’s vehicles use polluting fossil fuels. A switch to electric vehicles, coupled with a transition to renewable energy, is vital for Australia to meet its commitments to tackle climate change.

One of the quickest ways to reduce transport emissions is to accelerate the current slow uptake of electric vehicles. In 2022, Australian sales totalled 39,353. There are now about 83,000 light electric vehicles on our roads.

Read more:
Let buyers jump the queue for electric cars by importing them directly

Although sales almost doubled between 2021 and 2022, they represented only 3.8% of all new vehicle sales in 2022. That’s well below the global average of 12-14%. And it’s way behind world leader Norway where 87% of cars being sold now are electric.

In China, about 5.67 million electric cars, or a quarter of all new cars, were bought in 2022. By the end of the year, 35% of the cars being sold were battery-powered or plug-in hybrids. In the UK, more than 265,000 electrical vehicles were registered in 2022, a 40% increase on 2021.

The global outlook for electric vehicles remain strong. Total sales of 8.6 million vehicles are expected in 2023. That’s expected to rise to almost 12 million by 2025.

Australia will pass the milestone of 100,000 electric vehicles on the road this year. But that’s well short of the target of 1 million by 2027 set by an industry alliance headed by the Electric Vehicle Council, and the Albanese government’s target of 3.8 million by 2030. Best practice policies will help to accelerate the transition.

The importance of the new policy is that it will help to reduce costs for buyers. Cost is one of the main barriers to buying an electric vehicle in Australia. In 2022, less than 20% of electric vehicles sold for less than A$65,000. While some Australians are willing to pay the hefty price tag, it remains an obstacle for others.

Government interventions play a big role in reducing purchase costs and annual fees. Higher taxes on polluting vehicles are also likely to impact consumer choice so more drivers make the switch.

Read more:
New electric cars for under $45,000? They’re finally coming to Australia – but the battle isn’t over

What is best practice in emissions-based vehicle policies?

Policies that reduce registration fees and provide tax benefits to electric vehicle owners have been widely implemented overseas during the past few decades.

Norway first introduced registration fee exemptions in 1990. This, along with a range of other measures and incentives, helped to increase electric vehicle sales to 50% of the market in 2020, and 79% by 2022. No other nation comes close.

In the European Union, 21 of 27 member countries levied car taxes partially or totally based on CO₂ emissions in 2022.

The EU-wide policies provide a range of financial benefits to owners of electric vehicles. They apply to both vehicle acquisition (value-added tax, sales tax, registration tax) and vehicle ownership (annual circulation tax, road tax).

How much difference can these policies make?

A number of studies of the effectiveness of CO₂-based car taxation policies have found evidence they contribute to lowering transport emissions.

For example, Ireland first introduced an emissions-based car taxation policy in 2008. An analysis of its impacts found it produced a cumulative CO₂ saving of 1.6 million tonnes from 2008 to 2018.

In 2018, Irish-licensed vehicles travelled a total of 47.5 billion kilometres. The study found average carbon intensity of the car fleet had reduced from 189gCO₂/km in 2007 to 164gCO₂/km in 2018. It would have been 168gCO₂/km without the tax intervention, according to the analysis.

A similar study that evaluated Norway’s CO₂-based taxes found them to be powerful policies applied aggressively at levels ten times the EU Emissions Trading System quota prices. The analysis found these policies also delivered other improvements, with the largest impacts being reductions in air pollution.

What else needs to be done in Australia?

A measure such as introducing an emissions-based registration system is a step in the right direction. But to be effective it needs to be part of a holistic national effort to accelerate adoption of electric vehicles.

In 2023, Australia needs to speed up efforts on two major initiatives that were introduced in 2022.

The federal government began consultations on Australia’s first National Electric Vehicle Strategy last September. More than 500 submissions were received, representing the views of over 2,150 Australian individuals and organisations.

Commitments were also made to develop an ambitious set of mandatory fuel-efficiency standards to help increase the supply of electric vehicle models.

Read more:
The road to new fuel efficiency rules is filled with potholes. Here’s how Australia can avoid them

Both initiatives are key policy pillars of an effective strategy to reduce transport emissions.

Building on this momentum and urgently implementing bold policies will demonstrate Australia’s commitment to embrace the transition to electric vehicles and accelerate emission reductions.

Hussein Dia receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the iMOVE Cooperative Research Centre, Transport for New South Wales, Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts, and Beam Mobility Holdings.

– ref. Why a shift to basing vehicle registration fees on emissions matters for Australia – https://theconversation.com/why-a-shift-to-basing-vehicle-registration-fees-on-emissions-matters-for-australia-199294

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chay Brown, Research and Partnerships Manager, The Equality Institute, & Postdoctoral fellow, Australian National University

Content warning: this article contains mentions of racial discrimination against First Nations people, and themes of domestic violence.

Let us tell you about our town, our home. Mparntwe/Alice Springs is a small town on Arrernte Country in the red hot heart of the land now called Australia. Our town, our home, is a place of beauty: spinifex-speckled red sand dunes; black limestone after the rain; emerald waterholes nestled between the ranges; a wonderfully alive desert in one of the most remote places on Earth.

We hear more than 100 Indigenous languages being spoken on our streets every day, including Arrernte, Warlpiri, Luritja and Alawyerre & Pitjantjatjara. We are vibrant and multicultural. We are entrepreneurial. We love our sports, and our arts – and we cannot believe how much talent there is in our home.

But these are not the reasons our home has been plastered across national media for the past month. These are not the reasons you have clicked on this article.

According to news reports, a “crime wave” or surge of “alcohol-fuelled violence” is sweeping through our town. There was even talk of another military intervention.

Sensationalised media headlines and political pressure seem to be what prompted Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to make an impromptu trip to Alice Springs to meet with a handful of people, and introduce yet more alcohol restrictions.

However, the media reports contain little to no context regarding the issues, and reinforce the same negative stereotypes that made the Northern Territory Emergency Response (or what we call “the Intervention”) possible.

What was the Intervention?

In 2007, in response to allegations of child sexual abuse in remote NT communities, the Australian government suspended the racial discrimination act of 1975 to make special laws for Aboriginal people in prescribed areas in the territory, and the military was rolled in.

The Intervention included a raft of measures such as compulsory income management in the form of the BasicsCard, imposing alcohol prohibition on Aboriginal communities (although many of these communities already had self-determined dry policies), and mandatory health checks for Aboriginal children.

Many of these measures remain in place today – including compulsory income management.

The Intervention caused long-term trauma and other harms for some First Nations people, and shame and negative racial stereotypes that still persist today.

Shame and stigma compound violence, because they affect women’s willingness to report or seek help.

Alcohol restrictions are not the answer

Alcohol policy in the NT has been driven by the harmful stereotype that all Aboriginal people are alcoholics. This is despite evidence non-Indigenous people in the territory also consume disproportionately high amounts of alcohol. This is what the NT government means when it says it wishes to move away from “race-based policy”.

And while some Aboriginal Community Controlled Organisations support alcohol restrictions, many don’t.

Alcohol restrictions never stopped drinking in the NT. Instead, they prompted on-selling from within the NT and from other locations, or more harmful forms of drinking such as mouthwash and hand sanitiser.

Read more:
Alcohol bans and law and order responses to crime in Alice Springs haven’t worked in the past, and won’t work now

Alcohol and violence

Police and governments often claim alcohol leads to domestic violence-related assaults. However, administrative data, like that captured by police, is very subjective and potentially unreliable.

The classification of “alcohol-related assaults” and “domestic-violence related assaults” are determined at the individual discretion of the attending police officer. In interviews we conducted for soon-to-be-published research, some police officers stated they determined these classifications on whether they could smell alcohol, others because the person was slurring their words, and others because there were alcohol bottles present.

When questioned about whether the perpetrator or victim had to be drinking in order to make the classification of “alcohol-related assault”, the answer was invariably “either”, meaning we do not know from police data whether the perpetrator was actually using alcohol. This begs the question: if the perpetrator is sober, should an assault against an intoxicated victim be included in alcohol-related statistics?

Alcohol alone does not cause domestic violence, although it can exacerbate it. As stated by Australia’s national violence prevention organisation Our Watch, alcohol is often used as an excuse for domestic violence, rather than blaming the perpetrator.

There are also reports of women being breathalysed when they present with domestic violence assaults to hospital. This means many may choose not to go, to avoid the shame and blame.

Despite domestic, family and sexual violence rates in the NT being the highest per capita in Australia, the territory only receives a miniscule amount of funding compared with other states.

In 2022 the Northern Territory received about $14 million in national partnership funding to address domestic, family and sexual violence. This was roughly 1.8% of federal funding to address domestic or sexual violence.

And when shelters and specialist services such as Women’s Safety Services of Central Australia and Tangentyere’s Men’s Behaviour Change Program are chronically underfunded, understaffed and under-resourced, this leaves very few resources for prevention or early intervention.

Domestic, family and sexual violence intersects and worsens other issues that already disproportionately impact the NT, such as overcrowding, homelessness, poor infrastructure, and lack of access to goods and services.

More police won’t fix ‘youth crime’

Over the past few months there has been an injection of 30-40 extra police officers on Alice streets. This has led to more arrests, but few outcomes.

Children who interact with police often end up in out-of-home care, removed from family and culture, and some end up in youth detention. Children who end up in youth detention are more likely to reoffend and go on to have further interactions with police and the judicial system.

The issue of young people and sometimes very small children roaming the streets late at night is distressing, and Alice Springs has been calling for a response to this for years.

Many young ones travel in from the bush to stay in town to access services and visit family, and some get stuck here. And when unsupervised by adults, some young people do destructive things. Some of these children have grown up in overcrowding and poverty, and some are affected by foetal alcohol spectrum disorder.

In Alice Springs, there’s basically nowhere kids can go and just bounce a ball with their mates that’s accessible to everyone at any hour. Facilities are locked up, fenced off or out of reach financially for many children.

In 2021, the NT government gave $4 million to the local council to develop a water play park in Alice Springs’ town centre. But it took the money back while the council was struggling to decide on a site, and because it might attract more “anti-social behaviour”.

Community support is needed, not punishments

Alice’s problems are from years of successive government and policy failure, chronic underfunding and under-resourcing. Harmful, reductive and racist reporting has been detrimental to Alice and all who live here, particularly First Nations people.

We urge the federal and territory governments to invest in our remote communities. And to fund and support a community-led codesign of a response to the problems in Alice Springs. The response must be designed and led by local people. This must include the voices of young people, who have been unheard in all this noise.

Places such as Bourke have successfully addressed similar problems through justice reinvestment (redirecting money for prisons to the community), and could inform local decision-making processes in Alice Springs, too.

Introducing a policy of needs-based funding would ensure the NT receives the funds it needs to begin to address domestic, family, and sexual violence, overcrowding, support for those struggling with addiction, and programs to engage young people.

The media needs to follow the guidelines in “Media Changing the Story: Media Guidelines for the reporting of domestic, family, and sexual violence in the Northern Territory” which outlines how to engage with experts, communities, and report on violence in ways that is victim-survivor-centred, culturally safe, and does no harm. Alice Springs can only be accurately reported through the voices of experts with experience of life here.

Alice’s story is a story about geographic disadvantage. Alice needs community-led solutions, rather than punitive responses that bring shame, stigma and trauma. It’s time we had the courage to do things differently.

Mandy Taylor from SNAICC – National Voice for our Children also contributed to this article.

Chay Brown receives funding from ANROWS, Northern Territory Government, Department of Social Services, Australian Government, Gender Institute.

You are affiliated with Tangentyere Women’s Family Safety Group and Tangentyere Council,

Kayla Glynn-Braun works for the Equality Institute and owns shares in Her Story Consulting

Shirleen Campbell receives funding from NTG and ANROWS. Shirleen is affiliated with Tangentyere Council.

– ref. Here’s some context missing from the Mparntwe Alice Springs ‘crime wave’ reporting – https://theconversation.com/heres-some-context-missing-from-the-mparntwe-alice-springs-crime-wave-reporting-199481

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nial Wheate, Associate Professor of the Sydney Pharmacy School, University of Sydney

If you’re really feeling the heat this summer, it might be down to more than the temperature outside.

Some types of medicines can increase your core body temperature or make you feel hotter than you really are. Some can affect your body’s ability to cool down.

Here’s what you need to know about heat intolerance and medicines.

Read more:
How to cope with extreme heat days without racking up the aircon bills

What is heat intolerance?

Some people simply dislike the feeling of feeling hot, while others feel hot at temperatures most people find comfortable. Both are examples of
heat intolerance.

Typical symptoms during warm weather include excessive sweating (or not sweating enough), exhaustion and fatigue, nausea, vomiting or dizziness, and changes in mood.

A number of factors can cause heat intolerance.

This includes the disorder dysautonomia, which affects people’s autonomic nervous system – the part of the body that regulates the automatic functions of the body, including our response to heat.

Conditions such as diabetes, alcohol misuse, Parkinson’s disease, the autoimmune disease Guillain-Barré syndrome and mitochondrial disease can cause dysautonomia. People in old age, those with some neurological conditions, or people less physically fit may also have it.

But importantly, medications can also contribute to heat intolerance.

Read more:
5 reasons to check on your elderly neighbour during a heatwave

1. Your body temperature rises

Some medicines directly increase your body temperature, which then increases the risk of heat intolerance.

These include stimulant medications to treat ADHD (attention deficit hyperactivity disorder), such as methylphenidate, dexamfetamine and lisdexamfetamine.

Antipsychotic medications (such as clozapine, olanzapine and quetiapine) used to treat mental health conditions, such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, are other examples.

These ADHD and antipsychotic medicines raise your temperature by acting on the hypothalamus, the region of the brain essential for cooling.

The drug levothyroxine, used to treat an under-active thyroid, also increases your body temperature, this time by increasing your metabolism.

2. Your blood flow is affected

Other medicines constrict (tighten) blood vessels, decreasing blood flow to the skin, and so prevent heat from escaping this way. This means your body can’t regulate its temperature as well in the heat.

Examples include beta-blockers (such as metoprolol, atenolol and propranolol). These medications are used to treat conditions such as high blood pressure, angina (a type of chest pain), tachycardia (fast heart rate), heart failure, and to prevent migraines.

Decongestants for blocked noses (for example, pseudoephedrine and phenylephrine), triptans for migraines (such as sumatriptan and zolmitriptan) and the ADHD medications mentioned earlier can also act to decrease blood flow to the skin.

Read more:
Forget nose spray, good sex clears a stuffy nose just as effectively — and is a lot more fun

3. You can get dehydrated

Other medicines can cause dehydration, which then makes you more susceptible to heat intolerance. The best examples are diuretics such as furosemide, hydrochlorothiazide, acetazolamide and aldosterone.

These are used to control high blood pressure and heart failure by forcing your kidneys to remove more fluid from your body.

Laxatives, such as senna extract and bisacodyl, also remove water from your body and so have a similar effect.

Read more:
Health Check: how do I tell if I’m dehydrated?

4. You can sweat less

Other medicines have a drying effect. This can be needed for medicines to do their job (for instance, to dry up a runny nose). For others, it is an unwanted side effect.

This drying reduces the amount you sweat, making it harder to lose heat and regulate your core temperature. A number of medicines have these effects, including:

• some antihistamines (such as promethazine, doxylamine and diphenhydramine)
• certain antidepressants (such as amitriptyline, clomipramine and dothiepin)
• medicines used to treat urinary incontinence (for example, oxybutynin and solifenacin)
• nausea medicine (prochlorperazine)
• medicines for stomach cramps and spasms (for instance, hyoscine)
• the antipsychoptics chlorpromazine, olanzapine, quetiapine and clozapine.

Read more:
Health Check: do men really sweat more than women?

5. You don’t feel thirsty

Finally, some medicines, such as the antipsychotics haloperidol and droperidol, can aggravate heat intolerance by reducing your ability to feel thirsty.

If you don’t feel thirsty, you drink less and are therefore at risk of dehydration and feeling hot.

Read more:
Health Check: how can extreme heat lead to death?

What can you do about it?

If you are feeling hot this summer and think your medicine may be contributing, it’s very important you keep taking your medicine.

Speak to your pharmacist or doctor about your symptoms. They will offer advice and discuss alternatives.

Associate Professor Wheate in the past has received funding from the ACT Cancer Council, Tenovus Scotland, Medical Research Scotland, Scottish Crucible, and the Scottish Universities Life Sciences Alliance. He is a Fellow of the Royal Australian Chemical Institute, a member of the Australasian Pharmaceutical Science Association, and a member of the Australian Institute of Company Directors. Nial is the chief scientific officer of Vairea Skincare LLC and a Standards Australia panel member for sunscreen agents.

Jessica Pace does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Is my medicine making me feel hotter this summer? 5 reasons why – https://theconversation.com/is-my-medicine-making-me-feel-hotter-this-summer-5-reasons-why-199085

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Camellia Webb-Gannon, Lecturer, University of Wollongong

“Phil Mehrtens is the nicest guy, he genuinely is – no one ever had anything bad to say about him”, says a colleague of the New Zealand pilot taken hostage this week by members of the West Papuan Liberation Army (TPN-PB) in the mountainous Nduga Regency.

How such a nice guy became a pawn in the decades-long conflict between West Papua and the Indonesian government is a tragic case of being in the wrong place at wrong time. But it is also a symbolic and desperate attempt to attract international attention towards the West Papuan crisis.

A joint military and police mission has so far failed to find or rescue Mehrtens, and forcing negotiations with Jakarta is a prime strategy of TPN-PB. As spokesperson Sebby Sambom told Australian media this week:

The military and police have killed too many Papuans. From our end, we also killed [people]. So it is better that we sit at the negotiation table […] Our new target are all foreigners: the US, EU, Australians and New Zealanders because they supported Indonesia to kill Papuans for 60 years. Colonialism in Papua must be abolished.

Sambom is referring to the international complicity and silence since Indonesia annexed the former Dutch colony as it prepared for political independence in the 1960s. Mehrtens has become the latest foreign victim of the resulting protracted and violent struggle by West Papuans for autonomy.

Violence and betrayal

The history of the conflict can be traced back to 1962, when the US facilitated what became known as the New York Agreement, which handed West Papua over to the United Nations and then to Indonesia.

In 1969, the UN oversaw a farcical independence referendum that effectively allowed the permanent annexation of West Papua by Indonesia. Since that time, West Papuans have been subjected to violent human rights abuses, environmental and cultural dispossession, and mass killings under Indonesian rule and mass immigration policies.

Read more:
How the world failed West Papua in its campaign for independence

New Zealand and Australia continue to support Indonesian sovereignty over West Papua, and maintain defence and other diplomatic ties with Jakarta. Australia has been involved in training Indonesian army and police, and is a major aid donor to Indonesia.

Phil Mehrtens is far from the first hostage to be taken in this unequal power struggle. Nearly three decades ago, in the neighbouring district of Mapenduma, TPN-PB members kidnapped a group of environmental researchers from Europe for five months.

Like now, the demand was that Indonesia recognise West Papuan independence. Two Indonesians with the group were killed. The English and Dutch hostages were ultimately rescued, but not before further tragedy occurred.

At one point, negotiations seemed to have stalled between the West Papuan captors and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), which was delivering food and supplies to the hostages and working for their release.

Read more:
Fight for freedom: new research to map violence in the forgotten conflict in West Papua

Taking matters into their own hands, members of the Indonesian military commandeered a white civilian helicopter that had been used (or was similar to one used) by the ICRC. Witnesses recall seeing the ICRC emblem on the aircraft. When the helicopter lowered towards waiting crowds of civilians, the military opened fire.

The ICRC denied any involvement in the resulting massacre, but the entire incident was emblematic of the times. It took place several years before the fall of former Indonesian president Suharto, when there was little hope of West Papua gaining independence from Indonesia through peaceful negotiations.

Then, as now, the TPN-PB was searching for a way to capture the world’s attention.

Losing hope

Since the early 2000s, with Suharto gone and fresh hope inspired by East Timor’s independence, Papuans – including members of the West Papuan Liberation Army – have largely been committed to fighting for independence through peaceful means.

After several decades of wilful non-intervention by Australia and New Zealand in what they consider to be Jakarta’s affairs, that hope is flagging. It appears elements of the independence movement are again turning to desperate measures.

In 2019, the TPN-PB killed 24 Indonesians working on a highway to connect the coast with the interior, claiming their victims were spies for the Indonesian army. They have become increasingly outspoken about their intentions to stop further Indonesian expansion in Papua at any cost.

In turn, this triggered a hugely disproportionate counter-insurgency operation in the highlands where Phil Mehrtens was captured. It has been reported at least 60,000 people have been displaced in the Nduga Regency over the past four years as a result, and it is still not safe for them to return home.

Read more:
West Papua is on the verge of another bloody crackdown

International engagement

It is important to remember that the latest hostage taking, and the 1996 events, are the actions of a few. They do not reflect the commitment of the vast majority of Indigenous West Papuans to work peacefully for independence through demonstrations, social media activism, civil disobedience, diplomacy and dialogue.

Looking forward, New Zealand, Australia and other governments close to Indonesia need to commit to serious discussions about human rights in West Papua – not only because there is a hostage involved, but because it is the right thing to do.

This may not be enough to resolve the current crisis, but it would be a long overdue and critical step in the right direction.

Negotiations for the release of Philip Mehrtens must be handled carefully to avoid further disproportionate responses by the Indonesian military. The kidnapping is not justified, but neither is Indonesia’s violence against West Papuans – or the international community’s refusal to address the violence.

Camellia Webb-Gannon has received funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. The NZ pilot held hostage in West Papua is the pawn in a conflict only real international engagement can resolve – https://theconversation.com/the-nz-pilot-held-hostage-in-west-papua-is-the-pawn-in-a-conflict-only-real-international-engagement-can-resolve-199601

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Renée Middlemost, Lecturer, Communication and Media, University of Wollongong

A jaunty yet dramatic piano-driven soundtrack motif; a view of the Golden Gate Bridge; a series of location shots around San Francisco. The generic title sequence of the 2003 film The Room barely hints at what follows.

The Room is a straightforward melodrama centred around a love triangle between Johnny (Tommy Wiseau, who also directs), Lisa (Juliette Danielle) and Mark (Greg Sestero). Described as “the worst movie ever made”, it continues to draw sellout crowds worldwide.

One might rightfully wonder: what is the ongoing appeal of a film dubbed “the Citizen Kane of bad films” 20 years on?

Cult audiences

Scholars have debated the key features of cult film for decades, with poor quality (narrative, aesthetic or both), quotable dialogue, word-of-mouth spread and box-office failure all cited.

Most agree an adoring audience is vital to maintaining cult status. The Rocky Horror Picture Show (1972) is the most recognisable example of a cult film, distinguished not by its content but by the devotion of an audience “beyond all reason”.

The Room follows this tradition. Wiseau self-funded the film, a gigantic billboard of his face in Los Angeles, and a two-week run of screenings at the Laemmle Fairfax and Fallbrook Theatres in June 2003.

Word of mouth quickly spread among film fans, attracted by dire reviews such as “watching this film is like getting stabbed in the head”.

The poor reviews inspired new fans, who would come along and shout at the film, lip-sync the worst lines and throw spoons at the screen – a reference to the stock images of spoons that appear as decor in Johnny and Lisa’s apartment. Celebrity fans followed, with actors Kristen Bell and Paul Rudd hosting private screenings.

Fan-driven demand led to the film’s eventual release on DVD in 2005, coinciding with the launch of YouTube.

Clip compilations focusing on the film’s so-bad-it’s-good credentials allowed those unable to attend cinema screenings to consume portions of the film.

Cinemas such as The Prince Charles in London provided “viewing guides” to costume-clad audiences, instructing audience members of what to call out (or throw) when. Most attendees brought their own spoons, demonstrating the ritualisation of the active audience response.

The audience response to The Room also points to a wilful misreading of Wiseau’s intent. The cult of The Room is distinguished by the “cruelty” of laughing at “an immigrant filmmaker’s misbegotten passion project”.

But perhaps it is Wiseau who is having the last laugh.

Read more:
Violent clowns and panto dames: the origins of Rocky Horror’s Frank-N-furter

Tommy Wiseau’s World

As I have argued elsewhere, the growing profile of The Room resulted in a shift to interest in Wiseau as a cult auteur – as the long legal stoush over unauthorised documentary Room Full of Spoons (2016) demonstrates.

While early interviews with Wiseau indicate his belief in the film’s quality, over time he has reframed his authorial intent and now claims the film is a comedy.

While we can never know Wiseau’s true intent, his reframing of the film’s reception is a fascinating part of its history, which anchors the narrative of its most well-known paratext: James Franco’s The Disaster Artist (2017), a comedy that follows Sestero (Dave Franco) and his friendship with Wiseau (James Franco) during the creation of the film.

Notably, Franco as Wiseau proclaims at the film’s fictional premiere:

I’m glad you like my comedic movie – exactly how I intended. I have vision for this movie.

The enduring cult

Sestero’s book The Disaster Artist (2013) and Franco’s adaptation describes the pair’s meeting, their unconventional friendship, and Wiseau’s aspirations for Hollywood acceptance.

Rather than a cruel “takedown” or exposé, the book documents Sestero’s affection for Wiseau, and despite the reviews, his fondness for the film that ultimately made his name.

Although initially a source of friction with Wiseau, he has grown to support Sestero’s book, referring to it as “the red bible” for its red cover seen clutched in the hands of fans during signings and appearances.

The film adaptation of The Disaster Artist arguably resulted in the attainment of Wiseau’s long-held desire for Hollywood credibility, with James Franco declaring the universality of the story: “In so many ways, Tommy c’est moi”.

The Disaster Artist was widely praised, and the film and Franco went on to win Golden Globe Awards in 2018.

There, the highlight for many was Wiseau’s appearance on stage during Franco’s acceptance speech. Perhaps Hollywood dreams can come true.

A better place

As The Room turns 20, I argue it is still beloved by audiences because we love an underdog.

The Room might be a “bad film”, but it’s also about pursuing our dreams.

As Wiseau says in the film:

You can love [something] deep inside your heart and there is nothing wrong with it. If a lot of people love each other, the world would be a better place to live.

An endlessly quotable text, a mysterious creator, and a community of similarly invested viewers – what could be bad about loving that?

Read more:
What makes some art so bad that it’s good?

The Room is back in select cinemas in Australia this week.

Renée Middlemost does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘You can love something deep inside your heart and there is nothing wrong with it’: why we still love The Room, 20 years on – https://theconversation.com/you-can-love-something-deep-inside-your-heart-and-there-is-nothing-wrong-with-it-why-we-still-love-the-room-20-years-on-198665