New Zealand Parliament Buildings, Wellington, New Zealand.
New Zealand Politics Daily is a collation of the most prominent issues being discussed in New Zealand. It is edited by Dr Bryce Edwards of The Democracy Project.
This week, eclipse chasers will be visiting the small town of Exmouth, at the tip of North West Cape in Western Australia. Weather permitting, they are coming to see one of nature’s greatest sights – a total eclipse of the Sun on Thursday April 20.
Whether staying at hotels, resorts or camping sites, many would have made travel arrangements a year or more in advance. But don’t be too disappointed if you can’t be there; other opportunities to see total eclipses are coming up in the next few years. Here’s what you need to know.
A fully immersive experience
A total solar eclipse occurs on those rare occasions when the Moon lines up with the Sun and passes in front of it from our vantage point here on Earth. The bright disc of the Sun is entirely hidden for a short period – seconds or minutes. During this time, called the totality, eclipse watchers will see a dark hole in the sky where the Sun had been, surrounded by a faint glow – our star’s corona.
This is what eclipse chasers seek to witness. The string of locations where a total eclipse will be visible to observers is called the “path of totality”. People will often travel thousands of kilometres to be in the right place at the right time. They are not only treated to the magnificent sight of the corona, but get a fully immersive experience.
The sky rapidly darkens, the temperature drops, birds stop twittering and animals start going to sleep. The gathered observers, whether from your own group or from distant countries, are united in the experience.
Totality in 2002, as seen from the Woomera Rocket Range. Contrast has been slightly stretched to emphasise the shadow and the corona. Nick Lomb, Author provided
An addictive hobby
There are two warnings associated with total solar eclipses. One is that chasing them is addictive. Often people who have seen their first eclipse immediately want to start planning to see their second.
I can vouch for this personally – after watching my first total eclipse on December 4 2002 from the Woomera Rocket Range, I became most keen to observe another. Seeing the corona surrounding the dark Sun come into view was an awe-inspiring experience, heightened by the fascinating location and the elation of fellow observers. My next eclipse was on August 1 2008 at an even more interesting location – a beach on the shore of the Novosibirsk Reservoir in Siberia; and most recently, I watched the Far North Queensland eclipse on November 14 2012.
The other warning is this: the only time it’s safe to look directly at the Sun is during the brief period of totality. All other times, during the partial phases before and after, it is necessary to take precautions.
For this, special eclipse glasses are available from planetariums, public observatories, amateur astronomy groups and astronomy stores. Just make sure the glasses have the CE European standard mark.
Taking photographs is safe, though only during totality unless you have the appropriate filters. A tripod is essential, as the corona is faint and you will need long exposures. Seasoned eclipse observers arrive at eclipse sites loaded with professional-grade cameras and telephoto lenses. But if it’s your first time, it’s probably better to just watch and absorb the event, rather than try photographing it.
Tourists and locals gaze in awe at the partial solar eclipse in Midtown Manhattan’s Bryant Park on August 21 2017. Mihai O Coman/Shutterstock
Plan ahead and stay mobile
After this week’s eclipse in Australia, the next total solar eclipse will be visible on April 8 2024 from the United States and Mexico. After passing through Mexico, the path of totality sweeps across the United States from Texas to Maine, before moving to parts of Canada.
There are many potential viewing spots along the path. However, before picking a site, it’s important to study the “climate report” for the eclipse. This grants the best chance of avoiding the eclipse watcher’s greatest enemy – clouds.
However, even with the best advance planning, last-minute clouds are possible. Seasoned observers try to stay mobile, so that if the weather forecast is bad for their location, they can move to another location to avoid the clouds.
The US total solar eclipse will be followed on August 12 2026 with one where the path of totality passes over Spain and Iceland. Then there will be one on August 2 2027, visible from Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
An upcoming eclipse of greatest interest to Australians is the total solar eclipse on July 22 2028, for which the path of totality passes from WA through the Northern Territory to New South Wales towns such as Bourke, Dubbo and Mudgee before reaching Sydney. It is rare for a major city to be in the path of totality, and the five million people of Sydney will get a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to view a total solar eclipse from their homes or backyards.
At the start of totality for the 2012 eclipse, a small cloud was in front of the Sun, but moved quickly away. Nick Lomb, Author provided
Of course, like at any other eclipse, clouds are a possibility, so keep a lookout for weather reports closer to the date. Before eclipse day, look at the forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology and specialised astronomy websites.
As mentioned, for serious eclipse observers, mobility before a total eclipse is essential. For example, at the November 14 2012 eclipse in Far North Queensland, a Sydney Observatory group made a successful last minute dash inland to avoid the forecast poor weather.
Clouds, however, are not all bad. For the same eclipse, I was at Palm Cove Beach and fortunately, the clouds parted just at the start of totality. The excitement involved made for a fantastic and unique experience.
If you are not at North West Cape this week and want to experience the wonders of a future total solar eclipse, you may want to start planning now.
Nick Lomb does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
We asked our readers what they would like to know about the proposed Indigenous Voice to Parliament. In the lead-up to the referendum, our expert authors will answer those questions. You can read the other questions and answers here.
It would be possible for the federal parliament to establish an Indigenous Voice by passing ordinary legislation. But such a body would be fundamentally different from the constitutionally enshrined Voice we are being asked to approve at a referendum later this year.
First, only a constitutional Voice responds to the call for reform set out in the Uluru Statement from the Heart. That document was endorsed at the 2017 National Constitutional Convention at Uluru, which was the culmination of a grassroots process comprising 13 regional dialogues and involving more than 1,200 First Nations people.
The Uluru Statement calls for “the establishment of a First Nations Voice enshrined in the Constitution” as the first step of a reform process that also encompasses treaty-making and truth-telling.
Second, the act of establishing a Voice in the Constitution provides Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples with a form of constitutional recognition. This is explicit in the proposed amendment released by the government. Currently, the Australian Constitution makes no mention of the continent’s first peoples.
Third, constitutional change gives the Voice security and certainty. Once established, the Voice could only be abolished if Australians agreed to that at another referendum. By contrast, a legislative Voice would be far more vulnerable. A future government could get rid of it by passing an ordinary law. To do that, it would only need to win the support of a majority of members in the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Fourth, constitutional change will confer on the Voice a strong popular legitimacy that is not achievable through ordinary legislative change. The direct approval of the people at a referendum would bestow on the Voice a special credibility and authority. That would give additional political force to the representations of the Voice, even as the parliament and government would be free to ignore them. And the presence of the Voice in the nation’s highest law would speak to its standing.
Finally, constitutional change gives the Voice the best chance of being effective. A body that has been endorsed by First Nations people and the wider public, and enjoys the security and legitimacy that constitutional amendment provides, promises to have the most lasting and meaningful impact.
The enshrinement of an Indigenous Voice to Parliament in the Australian Constitution was a specific call of the Uluru Statement from the Heart. Lukas Coch/AAP
Why can’t the Voice be legislated and piloted for a few years, then put to a referendum?
It would be possible to establish an Indigenous consultative body by legislation and then subsequently hold a referendum to enshrine it in the Constitution. We could imagine this might help to familiarise some Australians with the idea of an Indigenous Voice before voting on it.
However, there are shortcomings to this approach that arguably outweigh any benefits it might bring. As the Uluru Statement makes clear, First Nations people have called for a Voice that is enshrined in the Constitution. That demand is not met by a legislated body.
Even if a sincere government pledged to put a legislated Voice to a vote after a trial period, there would be no guarantee the referendum would go ahead. After all, the priorities and composition of our governments and parliament change rapidly. There would be a risk that Indigenous people would be stuck with another representative body that, like ATSIC before it, could be dissolved with the stroke of a pen.
The lessons of any pilot period would also be limited. A statutory Voice would have a relatively weak standing and legitimacy. It could not be expected to speak as loudly as a constitutional body. As such, Australians could come to the end of the pilot period without a clear idea of the impact that a constitutional Voice might have on laws and policies.
Moreover, a pilot period would not necessarily provide Australians with greater certainty about the details of the Voice’s operation. The fact remains that parliament would retain the power to alter the Voice’s composition, functions, powers and procedures. The people might vote at the referendum with the “pilot” Voice in their mind, only to find the subsequent constitutional version takes a different shape.
What legislation is ever debated in parliament that does NOT affect indigenous people?
The proposed Voice covers a broad range of policy areas. It would be able to make representations to the parliament and the executive government “on matters relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples”.
As the Explanatory Memorandum to the Constitution Alteration Bill explains, this wording captures both matters specific to Indigenous peoples (such as native title) as well as more general matters “which affect Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples differently to other members of the Australian community”. For instance, general election laws would fall within the scope of the Voice because of the disproportionately low enrolment and participation rates of First Nations people.
Some have argued this remit is too broad, potentially allowing the Voice to give advice on almost any issue. The opposition has said the Voice could present its views, for example, on the setting of interest rates or the formulation of climate policy.
Supporters of the government’s proposal argue it is both necessary and appropriate for the Voice to be able to speak on a wide range of matters. It is said that a broad remit will ensure that the Voice facilitates the participation of Indigenous peoples in the making of laws and policies that affect them.
Proponents say it is impossible to know in advance the sorts of issues that First Nations people will see as being of interest or concern, and that those issues are likely to evolve over time. They also argue that a narrow remit could prompt legal challenges as disputes arise over what matters fall within scope.
In practical terms, the proposed Voice will not be able to make representations on all matters that fall within its remit. It will need to decide which matters deserve priority and focus its attention and resources on them.
And if the Voice wishes to be heard, and not just to speak, it may find that it can have most impact by focusing on matters that have specific significance for Indigenous peoples. Under the government’s proposal, it will be up to the Voice to make that calculation. As Robert French, former Chief Justice of the High Court of Australia, has observed: “[The Voice’s] limits are likely to be defined by common sense and political realities”.
Paul Kildea has previously received funding from the Australian Research Council.
A solar eclipse will occur across the whole of Australia on Thursday morning. It will be most visible in the Ningaloo region of Western Australia. Thousands of people will visit the small coastal town of Exmouth to witness this spectacular event, while Australians elsewhere will experience a partial eclipse.
It is imperative to take steps to protect your eyes from solar retinopathy – permanent eye damage caused by looking at directly at the sun. Expert guidelines advise people to never look at the sun or an eclipse with the naked eye. Any direct viewing should only be done with the correct use of approved solar eclipse glasses that meet an international safety standard known as ISO 12312-2.
Also known as sun blindness, solar retinopathy has been recognised since Ancient Greece. It affected astronomers including Sir Isaac Newton, who once used a mirror to look at the sun and saw “afterimages for months”.
Looking too closely
In Türkiye in 1976, 58 patients sought treatment for eye damage after an eclipse. While some experienced initial improvements, the damage in others was unchanged 15 years later.
In 1999, 45 people presented to the Eye Casualty of Leicester Royal Infirmary after an eclipse seen there. Retinopathy was confirmed in 40 of them. Seven months later, four people could still see “the ghosts of the damage” in their visual field.
And after the solar eclipse of August 2017, 27 patients in the American state of Utah presented with concerns about vision.
For those people affected by solar retinopathy, the results can be devastating and lifelong.
Light can damage the retina at the back of the eye. Shutterstock
What happens to your eye when you stare at the sun?
Solar retinopathy is damage to the back of the eye (the fovea centralis in the retina) from exposure to intense light. It is typically caused by sungazing or eclipse viewing but can also result from welding without a shield, looking at laser pointers and from some surgical and photographic lighting.
A process called “phototoxicity” happens when the energy in the light forms damaging free radicals and reacts with oxygen within the retina. This disrupts the retinal pigment epithelium (a layer of supportive cells beneath the retina) as well as the choriocapillaris (blood vessels) beneath.
Fragmentation of the photoreceptors, nerve cells within the retina that detect light and colour, follows and can result in permanent loss of central vision.
Some wavelengths of light that cause solar retinopathy – such as Ultraviolet-A radiation and near infrared wavelengths – are not visible to humans, yet cause solar retinopathy in as little as a few seconds. This exposure doesn’t necessarily hurt at the time.
So eclipse gazing – even with little or no visible light and viewed briefly without pain – can lead to loss of vision.
There is no effective treatment
There is no proven treatment for solar retinopathy. Steroid medications have been tried without evidence of success, and may make things worse in some patients. Antioxidant medications are used in some eye diseases, but there are no studies showing a benefit in solar retinopathy. Vision may improve over time without treatment but many patients are left with residual deficits.
The mainstay of management is therefore prevention.
display the correct safety certification (ISO 12312-2)
not be scratched, cracked or show any other signs of damage
fit your face properly so no gaps let light in (check they fit over your usual glasses if you need these to see normally)
be checked by looking at a lamp or light bulb – only light from the sun should be visible through genuine eclipse glasses. This check doesn’t risk eye damage provided the previous steps have been followed.
In Exmouth in WA, the Chamber of Commerce and Industry has purchased some 20,000 eclipse viewing glasses, which meet the international ISO safety standard.
Regular sunglasses, polaroid filters, welding shields, X-ray film, neutral density filters, red glass filters, mobile phones and homemade sun filters are not safe for viewing the sun or an eclipse.
What if you think the damage is done?
Symptoms to watch out for include blurred vision in one or both eyes within one to two days of exposure.
People may also experience blind spots, altered colour vision, visual distortion (straight lines appearing kinked or wavy), micropsia (objects appearing smaller than normal), light sensitivity and headache. There may be no symptoms at all in the first few hours to a day.
If you have symptoms, abstain from further eclipse viewing. Use dark sunglasses and painkillers (such as paracetamol) for light sensitivity and headaches. Arrange an urgent appointment with an ophthalmologist (or an optometrist, GP or emergency department, who may then refer you to a specialist).
A total solar eclipse may potentially be viewed without eye protection, but only during the brief period while the moon completely covers the sun (the period of totality).
This will only occur over the Ningaloo region of Western Australia, including Exmouth, just before 11.30am (AWST) and last between 54 and 58 seconds, depending on exact location. The Astronomical Society of Australia has an interactive map which eclipse viewers should visit, to determine the precise timing of totality in their location.
But this still has risks. Eclipse glasses should only be removed after totality has commenced, when the moon has completely covered the sun and it suddenly becomes dark. Just prior to the sun reappearing, eclipse glasses must be replaced, to keep observing the remaining partial eclipse.
Remember, totality will only occur over the Ningaloo region, so it not safe to view the eclipse without protection anywhere else in Australia.
A solar eclipse is a rare occurrence. People will naturally be curious to observe it. Following the right advice will mean they can do it safely.
Hessom Razavi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, Author provided
The rhythmic expansion and contraction of Antarctic sea ice is like a heartbeat.
But lately, there’s been a skip in the beat. During each of the last two summers, the ice around Antarctica has retreated farther than ever before.
And just as a change in our heartbeat affects our whole body, a change to sea ice around Antarctica affects the whole world.
Today, researchers at the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership (AAPP) and the Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science (ACEAS) have joined forces to release a science briefing for policy makers, On Thin Ice.
Together we call for rapid cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, to slow the rate of global heating. We also need to step up research in the field, to get a grip on sea-ice science before it’s too late.
One of the largest seasonal cycles on Earth happens in the ocean around Antarctica. During autumn and winter the surface of the ocean freezes as sea ice advances northwards, and then in the spring the ice melts as the sunlight returns.
We’ve been able to measure sea ice from satellites since the late 1970s. In that time we’ve seen a regular cycle of freezing and melting. At the winter maximum, sea ice covers an area more than twice the size of Australia (roughly 20 million square kilometres), and during summer it retreats to cover less than a fifth of that area (about 3 million square km).
In 2022 the summer minimum was less than 2 million square km for the first time since satellite records began. This summer, the minimum was even lower – just 1.7 million square km.
By exchanging water between the surface ocean and the abyss, sea ice formation helps to sequester heat and carbon dioxide in the deep ocean. It also helps to bring long-lost nutrients back up to the surface, supporting ocean life around the world.
Not only does sea ice play a crucial role in pumping seawater across the planet, it insulates the ocean underneath. During the long days of the Antarctic summer, sunlight usually hits the bright white surface of the sea ice and is reflected back into space.
This year, there is less sea ice than normal and so the ocean, which is dark by comparison, is absorbing much more solar energy than normal. This will accelerate ocean warming and will likely impede the wintertime growth of sea ice.
Headed for stormy seas
The Southern Ocean is a stormy place; the epithets “Roaring Forties” and “Furious Fifties” are well deserved. When there is less ice, the coastline is more exposed to storms. Waves pound on coastlines and ice shelves that are normally sheltered behind a broad expanse of sea ice. This battering can lead to the collapse of ice shelves and an increase in the rate of sea level rise as ice sheets slide off the land into the ocean more rapidly.
Sea ice supports many levels of the food web. When sea ice melts it releases iron, which promotes phytoplankton growth. In the spring we see phytoplankton blooms that follow the retreating sea ice edge. If less ice forms, there will be less iron released in the spring, and less phytoplankton growth.
Krill, the small crustaceans that provide food to whales, seals, and penguins, need sea ice. Many larger species such as penguins and seals rely on sea ice to breed. The impact of changes to the sea ice on these larger animals varies dramatically between species, but they are all intimately tied to the rhythm of ice formation and melt. Changes to the sea-ice heartbeat will disrupt the finely balanced ecosystems of the Southern Ocean.
Sea ice provides habitat for marine life, ranging in size from microbes to the largest animals on the planet. Here Adelie penguins approach a leopard seal. Wendy Pyper AAD, Author provided
A diagnosis for policy makers
Long term measurements show the subsurface Southern Ocean is getting warmer. This warming is caused by our greenhouse gas emissions. We don’t yet know if this ocean warming directly caused the record lows seen in recent summers, but it is a likely culprit.
As scientists in Australia and around the world work to understand these recent events, new evidence will come to light for a clearer understanding of what is causing the sea ice around Antarctica to melt.
Antarctic sea ice is highly variable, but there has been less ice than normal for almost all of the last seven years. This chart of monthly sea ice extent anomaly shows the difference between the long-term average sea ice and the observed sea ice in each month. By removing the annual cycle due to sea ice formation and melt, we can see the longer term variability underneath, and the extreme low sea ice events in recent years. Dr Phil Reid, BoM, Author provided
If you noticed a change in your heartbeat, you’d likely see a doctor. Just as doctors run tests and gather information, climate scientists undertake fieldwork, gather observations, and run simulations to better understand the health of our planet.
This crucial work requires specialised icebreakers with sophisticated observational equipment, powerful computers, and high-tech satellites. International cooperation, data sharing, and government support are the only ways to provide the resources required.
After noticing the first signs of heart trouble, a doctor might recommend more exercise or switching to a low-fat diet. Maintaining the health of our planet requires the same sort of intervention – we must rapidly cut our consumption of fossil fuels and improve our scientific capabilities.
Edward Doddridge receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Government.
As the planet warms, a key concern in international climate negotiations is to compensate developing nations for the damage they suffer. But which nations should receive money? And which extreme weather events were influenced by climate change?
Most nations last year signed up to an agreement to establish a so-called “loss and damage” fund. It would provide a means for developed nations – which are disproportionately responsible for greenhouse gas emissions – to provide money to vulnerable nations dealing with the effects of climate change.
Part of the fund would help developing nations recover from catastrophic extreme weather. For example, it might be used to rebuild homes and hospitals after a floods or provide food and emergency cash transfers after a cyclone.
Some experts have suggested the science of “event attribution” could be used to determine how the funds are distributed. Event attribution attempts to determine the causes of extreme weather events – in particular, whether human-caused climate change played a part.
But as our new paper sets out, event attribution is not yet a good way to calculate compensation for nations vulnerable to climate change. An alternative strategy is needed.
What is event attribution?
Extreme weather events are complex and caused by multiple factors. The science of extreme event attribution primarily seeks to work out whether either human-caused climate change or natural variability in the climate contributed to these events.
For example, a recent study found the extreme rain that triggered New Zealand’s February flooding was up to 30% more intense due to human influence on the climate system.
Attribution science is progressing quickly. It’s increasingly focused on extreme rain events, which in the past have been tricky to study. But it’s still not a consistent and robust way to estimate the costs and impacts of extreme events.
Event attribution science draws on both observational weather data and climate model simulations.
Most commonly, two types of climate model simulations are used: those that include the effects of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, and those that exclude them. Comparing the two types of simulations allows scientists to estimate how climate change influences the likelihood and severity of extreme events.
But climate models primarily simulate processes in the atmosphere and ocean. They don’t directly simulate the damage caused by an extreme weather event – such as how many people died due to a heatwave or infrastructure loss during a flood.
Climate models primarily simulate processes in the atmosphere and ocean. Shutterstock
To directly simulate the effects of an extreme event, we need to know the exact extent to which weather components such as temperature and rainfall caused damage.
In some cases, this can be determined. But it requires high-quality data, such as hospital admissions, that’s rarely available in most parts of the world.
Also, climate models are not good at simulating some extreme events, such as thunderstorms or extreme winds. That’s because such events are sporadic and tend to occur across small areas. This makes them harder to model than, say, a heatwave that affects a large area.
So if “loss and damage” funding decisions relied too much on event attribution, then a low-income nation hit by a heatwave may receive more support than a nation damaged by storms or high winds, relative to the damage caused.
What’s more, event attribution is not yet able to estimate how climate change causes damage associated with so-called “compound” extreme events.
Compound events refer to cases where more than one extreme event occurs simultaneously in neighbouring regions, or consecutively in a single region. Examples include a drought followed by a heatwave, or sea level rise which makes damage from a tsunami even worse.
Event attribution is not yet advanced enough to calculate “loss and damage” from climate change.
Instead, our paper suggests “loss and damage” funds are used alongside foreign aid spending to support recovery in low-income nations following any extreme events where human-caused climate change may have played a role.
We also present four major recommendations for using event attribution to estimate “loss and damage” in future. These are:
Help developing countries use event attribution techniques: to date, event attribution has largely been conducted by wealthy countries in their own regions
Address more types of extreme events: tornadoes, hailstorms and lightning are largely beyond the capability of climate models used in event attribution because they are localised and complex. New techniques to examine these events should be attempted
More research into the impacts and costs of extreme events: few studies have attempted to attribute the costs of extreme events to climate change. Further efforts are needed, especially in low-income nations
Combine event attribution with other knowledge: scientists and experts in aid and policymaking must collaborate on a strategy for using event attribution information. Better understanding of the needs of policymakers and the limitations of event attribution science could lead to more useful studies.
Event attribution is not yet advanced enough to calculate ‘loss and damage’ from climate change. Halden Krog/AP
A growing burden
Low-income nations have contributed relatively little to global emissions. Compensation from richer nations is vital to helping them manage the growing burden of climate harms.
But distributing these funds in a fair way is challenging. Until the field of event attribution advances, putting too much reliance on event attribution is a risky strategy.
The authors acknowledge the contribution of Izidine Pinto to the research underpinning this article.
Andrew King receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program.
Joyce Kimutai receives funding from Kenya’s Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Climate Change
Luke Harrington receives funding from New Zealand’s Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment.
Michael Grose receives funding from National Environmental Science Program.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Weihuan Zhou, Associate Professor, Co-Director of China International Business and Economic Law (CIBEL) Centre, Faculty of Law and Justice, UNSW Sydney, UNSW Sydney
The agreement between Australia and China to resolve a dispute over Chinese tariffs on Australian barley without World Trade Organization (WTO) adjudication is evidence of a distinct improvement in relations.
It raises confidence Australia can maintain a constructive relationship with China even as US-China relations continue to deteriorate.
China imposed an 80.5% import tariff on Australian barley in May 2020, on the grounds Australian barley was sold in the Chinese market at a price lower than its price in Australia (known as “dumping”) and was subsidised, harming China’s barley growers.
China’s Ministry of Commerce began an anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation into barley in November 2018. At the time it was perceived as retaliation for more than a dozen anti-dumping actions taken by Australia against Chinese imports over a decade.
But the timing of the tariff decision, just weeks after Australia called for an international investigation into the origin of COVID-19, meant it was perceived as part of a broader campaign of Chinese economic coercion that included actions against Australian coal, beef, lobster and wine.
In December 2020, Australia lodged its claim against the barley tariffs with the WTO. The breakdown in the official relationship at the time made it impossible for the dispute to be resolved via consultation.
Last week (on April 11) both parties requested the WTO suspend proceedings. This follows nearly a year of efforts to repair the relationship following the election of the Albanese government.
The agreement came in the same week that Australia hosted China’s deputy foreign minister, Ma Zhaoxu, the highest-level Chinese official to visit Canberra in more than six years.
Official visits by China’s Foreign Minister, Qin Gang (who met Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong in March on the sidelines of a G20 meeting in New Delhi) and senior officials from other ministries like agriculture and education, are expected to follow.
What the barley agreement means
Digging into the details of the barley deal, China has agreed to conduct an expedited review of barley tariffs in the next three or four months.
China’s Ministry of Commerce initiated a review
on April 14, based on an application lodged by the China Alcoholic Drinks Association. The review is needed for the ministry to find a reasonable ground to remove the duties. The standard time frame for such a review is 12 months.
For Australia, this offers a quicker path to get barley back in the Chinese market than proceeding with the WTO case.
While a decision from the WTO panel hearing the dispute was expected in just days, a finding that Australia wasn’t dumping barley on China could have meant another year before the tariffs were terminated. This is because China would retain the option of appealing the decision. Even if it then lost the appeal, it could still have dragged out removing the tariffs.
The approach sets a useful template for how Australia might similarly get China to remove the tariffs (of 116% to 218%) imposed on Australian wine in March 2021.
Australia initiated WTO proceeding in June 2021, with the WTO panel established four months later. It is expected to issue its decision by mid-2023. But continuing with the process will also take much longer for the tariffs to be removed.
This approach can also potentially be a template for the parties to suspend WTO dispute proceedings brought by China against Australia for its anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on selected Chinese imports.
For China, a more strategic goal behind the agreement might be alleviating Australia’s resistance to China joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
The trade pact involves 11 Pacific-rim nations and now Britain, whose request to join was approved by the other signatories in March.
China lodged its application to join after the UK, in September 2021. It too needs consensus approval from all CPTPP parties, and Australia has made its position crystal clear: China must end its trade sanctions and show a capability and willingness to live up to the CPTPP’s high standards.
Resolving the barley dispute is a starting point. It will also demonstrate that a rules-based global trading system can influence China’s behaviour. That’s not unexpected, because no country has a bigger stake in global trade. Last year China’s goods trade reached $US6.3 trillion, nearly $US900 billion more than the US.
For Australia, beginning a discussion about China joining the CPTPP may speed up regaining market access for its exports, and be an opportunity to secure China’s commitment to a rules-based agreement that exceeds WTO minimums.
From cautious optimism to reasonable confidence
The anticipated resolution of the barley dispute is not an isolated achievement. It demonstrates the effectiveness of the Albanese government’s diplomatic approach to China.
This has involved incrementally rebuilding economic cooperation while managing disagreements on values and security issues through calm and professional engagement. Amid geopolitical tensions with the US, China is also looking to stabilise its external environment.
Economic cooperation remains a standout area of common interest. Add in political willingness and diplomatic wisdom, and an assessment of cautious optimism can be replaced by one of reasonable confidence in the upward trajectory of the bilateral relationship.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
South Australia’s royal commission into early childhood education led by Julia Gillard has released an interim report. The key recommendation is preschool for all three-year-olds (in a move similar to other states). But the report notes one of the critical considerations around this change will be the early education workforce.
SA’s report comes as the Productivity Commission begins a wide-ranging inquiry into early childhood education and care in Australia.
As part of this, the commission is looking at the workforce. We already know there are high rates of turnover and burnout among early childhood educators. This makes it difficult for people to make a sustainable career in the sector.
It also makes it harder for services to find staff and for families to find a childcare place for their children.
Our new research looks at why early childhood educators are burning out and how we can fix this.
A 2021 a union survey of 4,000 educators revealed 73% planned to leave the sector within the next three years due to excessive workload, stress, low pay and status, lack of professional development and career progression.
It also found 82% “always” or “often” felt rushed when performing key caring tasks in the past month.
depersonalisation, where you feel separate from your body or true feelings.
Burnout matters, because it harms educators’ wellbeing, the quality of children’s education, leads to educators leaving and then the ability of parents to work (especially women), and businesses to thrive.
Early educators report feeling rushed and stressed in their work. Shutterstock
Our new study
We wanted to understand what causes educator burnout, with the aim of helping policymakers and governments plan better support for the sector.
To do this, we reviewed 39 studies about the drivers of early childhood educator burnout from 13 countries, including Australia.
This type of a study – called a “systematic review” – is a powerful way for researchers to provide a full and clear summary of what we know about a topic.
What leads to burnout?
We found educator burnout can be driven by a range of factors.
Certain personal circumstances make an educator more likely to experience burnout. For example, those with lower household income, or those with increased family responsibility report higher feelings of burnout. This category includes those who are single, widowed, divorced or separated.
Younger, less experienced educators were particularly vulnerable to depersonalisation. Male educators were more likely to experience burnout than their female colleagues.
Educators said poor mental health (particularly depression and mental distress) played a crucial role in their burnout. More socially connected educators who are supported by friends, family and/or their faith were less likely to experience burnout.
How services treat staff matters
Educators from services where there was little or no focus on wellbeing were more likely to report burnout.
This included services with scarce emotional support strategies – such as being able to debrief with peers, or access counselling or coaching. These services also showed a lack of respect for educators’ work-life balance – such as demanding they do extra unpaid hours or not being flexible about leave for family reasons.
Educators discussed the fatigue caused by “surface acting”, where they had to pretend they were (or were not) experiencing certain emotions to please children, staff and parents. For example, an educator might be feeling exhausted and overwhelmed due to their workload, but they had to pretend to feel energetic and enthusiastic when engaging with children and families.
Poor professional relationships were associated with feelings of stress. This included feeling undermined by parents, teaching children with behavioural challenges, and negative relationships with colleagues and directors.
Our research showed educators experienced stress when they had few resources, but very high expectations to produce “quality” learning environments and experiences for children.
Inadequate income can push educators to leave their positions. It can also lead to reduced motivation, and increase the number of sick days.
Educators’ feelings of burnout were also linked to a belief they had a low status in society. This was more pronounced if they taught younger children, or if they had been working in the sector a long time.
Both groups reported being affected by a lack of professional development and opportunities for promotion.
Educators who taught younger children were more likely to feel like they had a lower status in society. Lina Kivaka/Pexels
How can we reduce burnout?
Our review showed there are some effective ways to improve educators’ wellbeing, prevent burnout and keep them from leaving their jobs.
These include coaching, so educators can get feedback and develop their careers, peer mentoring so they know they are not alone and counselling, so they have an emotional outlet to reflect on their work.
If we want to keep educators in these vital roles we need to actively support them to stay.
The author acknowledges the work of Joanne Ng (lead researcher) and Courtney McNamara for their research on the systematic review.
Marg Rogers is a Research Fellow with the Commonwealth-funded Manna Institute that builds place-based research capacity to improve mental health in regional, rural, and remote Australia through the Regional Universities Network (RUN).
During these pandemic times, the importance of diagnosis is driven home forcefully. Being diagnosed with COVID makes sense of symptoms, determines what we should do about them, and shapes our collective responsibility to the community.
Diagnosing seems a pretty straightforward business. You have symptoms, the doctor examines or tests you, you get a name for what ails you.
But the reality is far more complex. Diagnoses are actually social agreements about what counts as disease.
Of course, there’s dysfunction of some kind at the start, but not all dysfunctions get diagnostic status, some diagnoses shift over time from one category to another and different diagnoses will have different connotations.
Even a diagnosis as seemingly clear-cut as COVID is more than just a label stuck to a virus. You can have presumed COVID, historical COVID, alpha, delta or omicron. You can have long COVID.
The latter is diagnosed as COVID, even when the virus is long gone and it could in fact be something else: chronic fatigue syndrome or fibromyalgia. Long COVID may be a particularly visible form of post-viral fatigue. That would require yet another diagnosis.
Diagnosis is so important to understanding our lives and those around us that it’s often applied outside of the health setting.
“Doing diagnosis” has become a popular form of entertainment. TV shows such as House use diagnostic mysteries to underpin plots – less Whodunit and more Whatisit.
TV shows like House play on diagnostic mysteries to drive the plot. Getty Images
Does Donald Trump have a narcissistic personality? Was Joan of Arc schizophrenic? What was the cause of Richard III’s hunchback? And even, does Winnie the Pooh have obsessive compulsive disorder?
What is interesting in this fascination with Trump’s presumed narcissism, or even the psychic health of Jesus, is less whether these diagnoses are valid and explanatory, but more how diagnostic frameworks have become dominant ways of telling stories.
A diagnosis is a story, in and of itself. When a doctor says “you have pneumonia”, they have actually said:
You have an infection of your lungs, probably caused by bacteria or a virus and possibly triggered by that cold you had last week. It will incapacitate you but is likely to be self-limiting if all goes well. Stay at home and take your antibiotics.
You can repeat that story by saying the same thing to your employer or your friends. They will know the narrative arc.
Stories and deviance
Diagnostic stories are explanations of deviance. By “deviance” we mean the sociological sense of the term: an inability to meet social expectations of behaviour, belief or experience.
To explain deviance, we often defer to diagnosis. Having visions, having an inflated sense of self-worth, being lethargic and unable to keep up with the pace of others are all somehow outside of normal expectations. Diagnosing them as psychosis, narcissism or depression is one way of making sense.
Diagnosis is also used as a storytelling technique for dead people, fictional characters and politicians. Vincent Van Gogh, for example, who died of a self-inflicted gunshot, has received retrospective diagnoses ranging from depression to bipolar disorder, temporal lobe epilepsy and acute intermittent porphyria.
Many people have attempted to diagnose the painter Vincent van Gogh posthumously. Uriel Sinai/Getty Images
More than 150 scientific authors have thrown themselves at finding a diagnosis to explain his deviance. Each diagnostic proposition is an example of the desire to understand Van Gogh.
In similar style, the analysis of Arthur Fleck in the film Joker is replete with learned specialists picking up what the film got wrong, what diagnosis he might actually have or what the impact of his candidate diagnoses might be on real-world sufferers.
The diagnoses proposed for Joker include psychopathy, pseudobulbar affect, schizotypal personal disorder and many more. But, Fleck doesn’t exist and the cinematic objective of suspending disbelief constructs a character, not a patient.
Similarly, Winnie the Pooh does not have obsessive compulsive disorder, Roo is not autistic and Tigger does not have ADHD. They are make believe. While one could argue these stories serve as ways of helping children to see themselves, stories are sometimes just stories. Not everything is a cautionary tale, an educational tool or a self-reflexive device.
Medicalising experiences
The social practice of diagnosis as a way of talking about characters reflects our contemporary understanding of disease and illness as the master narrative to explain deviance, and to legitimise the diagnoses themselves.
These stories say more about us, the diagnosers, and our contemporary views, than the lives of those they seek to describe. But this practice is not without its downsides.
By using diagnosis to explain people, we medicalise our experience of the world and shut down other avenues of explanation. Calling someone a narcissist to explain political behaviour means we’ve given up on politics. We see pathology as the undergirding explanation for unpalatable policy, rather than structural failure.
Just as explaining an imaginary character via diagnosis means we’ve lost faith in stories. Winnie the Pooh is simply a child’s toy “of very little brain.”
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
The New Zealand government has committed $15 million to support Solomon Islands provincial administrations to strengthen climate resilience at the grassroots level.
Deputy Prime Minister Carmel Sepuloni, who is on a three-country Pacific tour, made the announcement in Honiara today, with the funding coming out of the $1.3 billion climate finance commitment for 2022-2025.
The money — guided by the Tuia te Waka a Kiwa, New Zealand’s international climate finance strategy — will go directly into the existing Solomon Islands Provincial Capacity Development Fund that assists with developing climate adaptation plans and managing climate adaptation projects at a local level.
The funding has been made available though the Local Climate Adaptive Living (LoCAL) Facility designed by the United Nations Capital Development Fund (UNCDF).
LoCAL builds on the existing Solomon Islands Provincial Capacity Development Fund by providing performance-based climate resilience grants to cover costs of adapting to climate change — particularly small projects at a local level that reach the people who need help the most, such as women and youth.
NZ’s Deputy Prime Minister Hon @CarmelSepuloni is leading the first mission to the Pacific since 2019, landing in Solomon Islands on Sunday evening. 🇸🇧🤝🇳🇿
Sepuloni said effective climate actions requires partnerships.
“Climate change is a global challenge that requires global and collective action,” Sepuloni said.
“That’s why we’re stepping up to provide climate finance to support provincial governments to build climate resilience at the grassroots.
“At the heart of this mission and our shared focus as a Pacific region, is the importance of supporting local and indigenous-led solutions to support effective climate action.”
She said the support delivered on that and doubled down on Aotearoa’s focus to tackle the threat of climate change in the Pacific.
Empowering provincial governments to integrate climate change resilience and adaptation into their planning, as well as accessing additional sources of climate finance to respond and adapt to climate change at the community-level is a priority of the Solomon Islands government, Sepuloni said.
She said the support was also an immensely practical investment in building climate resilience in the region.
Climate Change Minister James Shaw said most Solomon Islanders lived in rural, low-lying coastal areas of the country, where provincial governments, churches and other community groups deliver essential services.
“These communities are among those on the frontline of the climate crisis – but are those who have contributed the least to climate change,” Shaw said.
He said the support package was aimed at reaffirming New Zealand’s efforts to ensuring the response to the climate crisis is inclusive and supportive of local leadership and support communities’ right across Solomon Islands.
“We also welcome the opportunity this creates for others to invest in Solomon Islands provincial government programmes to respond to climate change,” he added.
Meeting with PM Sogavare Sepuloni’s first stop on the Pacific tour marks the return of the government’s regional visits which, prior to the pandemic, had been undertaken annually.
She was scheduled to meet with Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare and Foreign Minister Jeremiah Manele later today.
Her delegation of New Zealand MPs, government officials, community leaders and journalists will also attend various presentations and events led by the local community with a focus on early childhood education, climate change, youth development and labour mobility.
Over the course of the week, Sepuloni will also be visiting Fiji and Tonga.
These annual Pacific missions are described as an integral part of the New Zealand government’s commitment to maintaining its relationship with Pacific Island countries through consultation and helping them respond to ongoing challenges.
This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.
New Caledonia’s rival pro- and anti-independence factions both say they are satisfied with the week of separate talks with French government ministers in Paris.
After the rejection of full sovereignty in three referendums and the expiry of the 1998 Noumea Accord, a new statute for Kanaky New Caledonia needs to be created.
While the pro-independence parties want Paris to give a timetable to full independence, the anti-independence parties want Paris to realign the territory with France.
The discussions will be continued in Noumea in June when French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin plans his next visit.
His ministry said he would go to the United Nations in New York in May to discuss the situation in New Caledonia.
The territory has been on the UN decolonisation list since 1986, based on the Kanak people’s internationally recognised right to self-determination.
After this week’s talks in Paris, Victor Tutugoro of the pro-independence Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS) told the AFP news agency all points raised by his side had been accepted for the negotiations in June.
FLNKS accepted invitation The anti-independence parties expressed satisfaction that the FLNKS accepted the French invitation for this week’s bilateral discussions after shunning a dialogue in France since the third and last independence referendum in 2021.
The pro-independence side largely abstained from the third vote because of the pandemic and refuses to recognise the result as the legitimate outcome of the decolonisation process.
The anti-independence parties want the June talks to be trilateral after the pro-independence parties insisted on negotiating only with France about a path to sovereignty.
The president of the Southern Province, Sonia Backes, said Darmanin’s visit would make sense only if the pro-independence parties joined the anti-independence parties for discussions.
On key points, the two sides remain far apart.
The pro-independence parties say the restricted rolls for provincial election, which define New Caledonian citizenship and are enshrined in the French constitution, must stay.
The anti-independence parties want France to open the rolls for next year’s provincial elections to include people who settled since 1998.
They also want a statute preventing any future option for self-determination.
According to a New Caledonian member of the French National Assembly, Nicholas Metzdorf, Darmanin said either time would do the job, or he would do the job.
This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.
West Papuan rebels seeking independence in the Indonesian-ruled Melanesian region claim to have killed nine soldiers after Jakarta did not respond to a request to negotiate the return of hostage New Zealand pilot Philip Mehrtens.
But the military said one soldier died during the attack on Saturday.
Indonesian military spokesperson Rear Admiral Julius Widjojono said yesterday other soldiers were dispersed to several sites in the search for captured Susi Air pilot Philip Mehrtens and they were having communication difficulties due to bad weather.
“As of 2.03pm (local time) the information we have is one died. We have not received any other information because it is difficult to reach the area, especially with the uncertain weather,” Admiral Widjojono said when asked about the higher casualty numbers.
The Jakarta Post reports that at least one soldier has been killed in the Papuan Highlands on Saturday during a clash with the rebel group.
The Post quoted Admiral Widjojono as saying that First Private Miftahul Arifin had been shot after he fell into a 15m deep ravine as other soldiers, who were trying to evacuate Miftahul, were reportedly stuck in the field and bombarded with bullets.
Admiral Widjojono said the military would intensify the operation to rescue Mehrtens as they hde identified the pilot’s location.
Erratic weather Erratic weather had made the effort challenging, he said.
The West Papua National Liberation Army (TPNPB) abducted the New Zealand pilot on February 7. The group initially demanded Jakarta recognise the Papua region’s independence but told news agencies this month they were prepared to drop that demand and seek dialogue.
“We asked the Indonesian and New Zealand governments to free the hostages through peaceful negotiations,” rebel spokesperson Sebby Sambom said in a recorded message on Sunday.
“But the Indonesian military and police attacked civilians on March 23. Because of that the TPNPB troops said they would take revenge and it had already started,” Sambom said, adding that fighting was continuing on Sunday.
A military spokesperson in Papua, Herman Taryaman, denied the allegation of a March attack on civilians, saying the security forces were protecting civilians who were chased away by the rebels.
A low-level struggle for independence from Indonesia has been going on for decades in the remote and resource-rich Papua region, with the conflict intensifying significantly in recent years, analysts say.
The conflict began after a contested 1969 vote supervised by the United Nations saw the former Dutch territory brought under Indonesian control.
This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.
Former prime minister Paul Keating has launched an extraordinary fresh barrage of criticism against Foreign Minister Penny Wong, accusing her of delivering “platitudes” in her major foreign policy speech on Monday.
In a statement shortly after Wong addressed the National Press Club on “Australia’s interests in a regional balance of power”, Keating said she had provided no policy answers and had adopted the “binary” approach – in her case favouring the United States against China – that she warned others to avoid.
“Never before has a Labor government been so bereft of policy or policy ambition,” he said.
Earlier, answering a question about Keating’s recent cutting description of her “running around the Pacific Islands with a lei around her neck” handing out money, Wong said the former PM had “diminished” his legacy and the subject.
The latest vitriolic exchange reflects the long-running policy animosity between the two, particularly Keating’s hostility to Wong over the issue of China.
In her address Wong condemned commentators and strategists who viewed what was happening in the region “simply in terms of great powers competing for primacy.
“They love a binary. And the appeal of a binary is obvious. Simple, clear choices. Black and white. But viewing the future of the region simply in terms of great powers competing for primacy means countries’ own national interests can fall out of focus.
“It diminishes the power of each country to engage other than through the prism of a great power.”
Wong stressed the need for countries “with an existential interest in regional peace and stability to press for the responsible management of great power competition”.
She said “strategic competition is not merely about who is top dog, who is ahead in the race, or who holds strategic primacy in the Indo-Pacific.
“It’s actually about the character of the region. It’s about the rules and norms that underpin our security and prosperity, that ensure our access within an open and inclusive region, and that manage competition responsibly.”
She said Australia employed its own statecraft “toward shaping a region that is open, stable and prosperous.
“A predictable region, operating by agreed rules, standards and laws. Where no country dominates, and no country is dominated. A region where sovereignty is respected, and all countries benefit from a strategic equilibrium.”
In her speech Wong flagged she would not be drawn into discussion of timelines and scenarios about Taiwan. That was “the most dangerous of parlour games”.
“A war over Taiwan would be catastrophic for us all,” she said; “our job is to lower the heat on any potential conflict”.
Wong said of the China relationsip: “the Albanese government will be calm and consistent”, co-operating where it could, disagreeing where it must and managing differences wisely. “We start with the reality that China is going to keep on being China.”
She said that in the pursuit of “strategic equilibrium with all countries exercising their agency to achieve peace and prosperity, America is central to balancing a multipolar region. Many who take self-satisfied potshots at America’s imperfections would find the world a lot less satisfactory if America ceased to play its role.”
Keating said: “In facing the great challenge of our time, a super-state resident in continental Asia and an itinerant naval power seeking to maintain primacy – the foreign minister was unable to nominate a single piece of strategic statecraft by Australia that would attempt a solution for both powers”.
Keating said Wong “went out of her way to turn her back on what she disparaged as ‘black and white’ binary choices, speaking platitudinally about keeping ‘the balance of power’, but having not a jot of an idea as to how this might be achieved.”
Wong had said she was “steadfast” in refusing to talk about regional flashpoints – “that is, refusing to talk about the very power issue which threatens the region’s viability.
“She told us she will turn her back on reality, speaking only in terms of ‘lowering the heat’ and the ‘benefit from a strategic equilibrium’, without providing one clue, let alone a policy, as to how that might be achieved”.
While Wong had eschewed “black and white” binary choices she had then made such a choice herself.
She had extolled the virtues of the US, “of it remaining ‘the central power’ – of ‘balancing the region’, while disparaging China as ‘intent on being China’”.
She had gone on to say “countries don’t want to live in a closed, hierarchical region, where the rules are dictated by a single major power to suit its own interests”, Keating said.
“Nothing too subtle about that,” he said. “She means China and is happy to mean China.
“This is the person claiming she does not wish to make binary choices. Yet tells us ‘we have to press for the management of great power competition’, while saying, ‘we want partners and not patriarchs’ but articulating not a jot of an idea of how that great power competition can be settled without war.”
Keating, who has been a strong critic of AUKUS, said Wong had said the advent of capability under AUKUS “will ‘change the calculus for any aggressor’ – of course, meaning China.
“As a middle power, Australia is now straddling a strategic divide, a divide rapidly becoming every bit as rigid as that which obtained in Europe in 1914. Australia’s major foreign policy task is to soften that rigidity by encouraging both the United States and China to find common cause and benefit in a peaceful and prosperous Pacific, ” Keating said.
“Nothing Penny Wong said today, on Australia’s behalf, adds one iota of substance to that urgent task.”
Michelle Grattan ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emlyn Dodd, Lecturer in Classical Studies, Institute of Classical Studies, University of London; Assistant Director of Archaeology, British School at Rome; Honorary Postdoctoral Fellow, Macquarie University, Macquarie University
Roman mosaic illustrating a winemaking scene from the fourth century CE at Santa Costanza, RomeE. Dodd, Author provided
Recent excavations at the Villa of the Quintilii uncovered the remains of a unique winery just outside Rome.
The mid-third-century CE building located along the Via Appia Antica portrays a sense of opulence and performance almost never found at an ancient production site.
This exciting complex illustrates how elite Romans fused utilitarian function with luxurious decoration and theatre to fashion their social and political status.
I was one of the specialist archaeologists to study this newly excavated site. The details of this discovery are outlined in our new article in Antiquity.
View of the excavated winery at the Villa of the Quintilii on the Via Appia Antica, Rome. S. Castellani, Author provided
The Villa of the Quintilii
From names stamped on a lead water pipe, we know the 24 hectare ancient Roman villa complex was owned by the wealthy Quintilii brothers, who served as consuls in 151 CE.
Bust of Commodus in the Glyptothek, Munich. Wikimedia Commons
The Roman emperor Commodus had the brothers killed in 182/3 CE.
He took possession of their properties, including this villa, initiating long-term imperial ownership.
The site has been long known for its decorative architecture, including coloured marble tiling, high-quality statuary recovered over the last 400 years, and a monumental bathing complex.
Less known is an enormous circus for chariot racing built during the reign of Commodus.
From 2017-18, during an attempt to discover the starting gates of the circus, the first traces of a unique winery were revealed.
This large complex was built on top of the circus starting gates, which dates it after the reign of Commodus.
The complex possesses features commonly found in ancient Roman wineries: a grape treading area, two wine presses, a vat to collect grape must (the juice of the grapes along with their skins, seeds and stems) and a cellar with large clay jars for storage and fermentation sunk into the ground.
However, the decoration and arrangement of these features is almost completely unparalleled in the ancient world.
Aerial view of the excavated winery at the Villa of the Quintilii. Production areas are at the top (A–D), and the cellar (E) with adjacent dining rooms (F) in the lower half of the image. Photo by M.C.M s.r.l and adaptation in Dodd, Frontoni, Galli 2023, Author provided
Nearly all the production areas are clad in marble veneer tiling. Even the treading area, normally coated in waterproof cocciopesto plaster, is covered in red breccia marble. This luxurious material, combined with its impracticalities (it is very slippery when wet, unlike plaster), conveys the extreme sense of luxury.
Reconstructed ancient Roman wine press at the Villa of the Mysteries, Pompeii, Italy. E. Dodd, Author provided
Two immense mechanical lever presses sit either side of the treading area to press the already trodden grape pulp.
The size and scale of these presses working up and down in harmony would have contributed to the theatre of the production process.
The grape juice produced from treading and pressing flowed from these areas into a long rectangular vat, where an impression from a stamp named the short-reigning emperor Gordian (deposed 244 CE). This confirms a date of construction or renovation.
But it is here the real performance would have begun.
The liquid grape must poured like a striking fountain out of the vat and through a facade around one metre in height that closely resembles a Roman nymphaeum (a monumental decorated fountain).
View from the excavated dining room over the cellar with its facade of niches and fountains and up to the raised production areas. E. Dodd, Author provided
While must flowed out of the three central niches, water flowed out of those on either end and was then channelled back underground through a system of lead pipes.
This niched facade was originally clad in a decorative veneer of brightly coloured white, black, grey and red marble. Some pieces remain attached and more were found loose in the excavated layers.
The cellar with marble-lined distribution channels and eight buried clay jars reinstated in their original positions. E. Dodd, Author provided
A system of thin open white marble channels conveyed the grape must from the facade into an open-air cellar area.
Here it was fed into 16 buried clay jars (dolia defossa) large enough for a person to fit inside. The remains of eight were uncovered during excavations.
Three rooms paved in opulent geometric marble tiling, like those found in other areas of the villa, were arranged around the cellar.
We might imagine the emperor and his retinue reclining, eating and watching the spectacle of production and tasting freshly pressed must.
Geometric coloured marble floor tiling (opus sectile) discovered in one of the dining rooms. S. Castellani, Author provided
Theatrical vintage ritual in ancient Italy
The only other example like this facility can be found at Villa Magna, 50 kilometres to the south-east near Anagni.
This similarly opulent marble-clad winery was in use just before the Villa of the Quintilii, from the early second to early third century CE, with an area for dining that enabled a view of the production spaces.
In Marcus Aurelius’ letters to his tutor Fronto, we are given a rare glimpse into the activities of Villa Magna around 140-145 CE. He describes the imperial party banqueting while watching and listening to the workers treading grapes.
Roman sarcophagus (ca. 290 CE) illustrating a vintage scene with cherubs harvesting grapes and treading on them in a basin to make wine. Getty Villa Museum, Malibu. Wikimedia Commons
It is likely this formed part of a vintage ritual, tied to the ceremonial opening of the harvest. Perhaps this ritual also occurred at the slightly later Villa of the Quintilii facility.
Lavish marble-clad spaces marked areas fit for the imperial party and the winery was the “theatre” for this sacred performance.
One tantalising question remains unanswered: was the Roman emperor’s spectacular, ritual winery moved in the early third century CE from Villa Magna to the Villa of the Quintilii?
Emlyn Dodd does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Do you remember learning to drive a car? You probably fumbled around for the controls, checked every mirror multiple times, made sure your foot was on the brake pedal, then ever-so-slowly rolled your car forward.
Fast forward to now and you’re probably driving places and thinking, “how did I even get here? I don’t remember the drive”. The task of driving, which used to take a lot of mental energy and concentration, has now become subconscious, automatic – habitual.
But how – and why – do you go from concentrating on a task to making it automatic?
Habits are there to help us cope
We live in a vibrant, complex and transient world where we constantly face a barrage of information competing for our attention. For example, our eyes take in over one megabyte of data every second. That’s equivalent to reading 500 pages of information or an entire encyclopedia every minute.
Just one whiff of a familiar smell can trigger a memory from childhood in less than a millisecond, and our skin contains up to 4 million receptors that provide us with important information about temperature, pressure, texture, and pain.
And if that wasn’t enough data to process, we make thousands of decisions every single day. Many of them are unconscious and/or minor, such as putting seasoning on your food, picking a pair of shoes to wear, choosing which street to walk down, and so on.
Some people are neurodiverse, and the ways we sense and process the world differ. But generally speaking, because we simply cannot process all the incoming data, our brains create habits – automations of the behaviours and actions we often repeat.
There are two forces that govern our behaviour: intention and habit. In simple terms, our brain has dual processing systems, sort of like a computer with two processors.
Performing a behaviour for the first time requires intention, attention and planning – even if plans are made only moments before the action is performed.
This happens in our prefrontal cortex. More than any other part of the brain, the prefrontal cortex is responsible for making deliberate and logical decisions. It’s the key to reasoning, problem-solving, comprehension, impulse control and perseverance. It affects behaviour via goal-driven decisions.
For example, you use your “reflective” system (intention) to make yourself go to bed on time because sleep is important, or to move your body because you’ll feel great afterwards. When you are learning a new skill or acquiring new knowledge, you will draw heavily on the reflective brain system to form new memory connections in the brain. This system requires mental energy and effort.
On the other hand, your “impulsive” (habit) system is in your brain’s basal ganglia, which plays a key role in the development of emotions, memories, and pattern recognition. It’s impetuous, spontaneous, and pleasure seeking.
For example, your impulsive system might influence you to pick up greasy takeaway on the way home from a hard day at work, even though there’s a home-cooked meal waiting for you. Or it might prompt you to spontaneously buy a new, expensive television. This system requires no energy or cognitive effort as it operates reflexively, subconsciously and automatically.
When we repeat a behaviour in a consistent context, our brain recognises the patterns and moves the control of that behaviour from intention to habit. A habit occurs when your impulse towards doing something is automatically initiated because you encounter a setting in which you’ve done the same thing in the past. For example, getting your favourite takeaway because you walk past the food joint on the way home from work every night – and it’s delicious every time, giving you a pleasurable reward.
Before you know it, picking up a delicious takeaway on your way home can become a regular habit. James Sutton/Unsplash
In other words, habits are the mind’s shortcuts, allowing us to successfully engage in our daily life while reserving our reasoning and executive functioning capacities for other thoughts and actions.
Your brain remembers how to drive a car because it’s something you’ve done many times before. Forming habits is, therefore, a natural process that contributes to energy preservation.
That way, your brain doesn’t have to consciously think about your every move and is free to consider other things – like what to make for dinner, or where to go on your next holiday.
Gina Cleo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
When you buy a product, you expect to be able to repair it. The problem is, many modern products are designed so that you can’t fix them. Vital parts are inaccessible. Or you have to go through the manufacturer, which may well just give you a new one. The end result: millions of expensive products, from cars to phones to appliances, end up in the rubbish tip. At the most extreme, manufacturers actively prevent you from repairing their products at the local mechanics.
You can see why some manufacturers prefer the world to work like this. If you can’t repair your washing machine, you have to buy a new one. But it’s a hidden cost to all of us – and a huge source of avoidable waste.
That’s why many countries and jurisdictions are introducing laws enshrining your right to repair products. Last month, the EU passed a “right to repair” policy. In the United States, 26 states have proposed laws.
But Australia is dragging its heels.
So what’s the hold-up?
In July 2021, Australia passed its first right to repair laws, a mandated data-sharing scheme to make it possible for independent mechanics to get access to diagnostic information. This was a good start, but limited to one sector.
The Productivity Commission assessed the case for a broader right to repair almost two years ago and released its final report in late 2021.
Here, it pointed to the opportunity to give independent repairers
greater access to repair supplies, and increase competition for repair services, without compromising public safety or discouraging innovation.
Mechanics repairing modern cars often need to access diagnostic data – and that means manufacturers have to share it. Shutterstock
In October last year, the new environment minister Tanya Plibersek and state environment ministers put out a joint commitment, calling for Australia to recognise the scale and urgency of environmental challenges and
design out waste and pollution, keep materials in use and foster markets to achieve a circular economy by 2030.
A circular economy would mean effectively ending waste. Instead, waste streams are turned back into useful products. Many other countries are working to cut waste to a minimum.
The design of products is also a vital way to reduce waste going to landfill or, worse, the oceans. Redesigning products to make them repairable will prolong their useful life, value and functionality.
Labor has made positive sounds. But we are yet to see the promised action.
America’s proposed right to repair laws vary by state in terms of what industries they cover. They range from the first ever right to repair agricultural equipment in Colorado through to all-encompassing consumer-focused laws.
Less than a month ago, the European Union passed a right to repair policy aimed at making it easier to access repairs for appliances and electrical goods. EU justice commissioner Didier Reynders estimated the laws would save consumers €176 (A$288) billion over the next 15 years. But consumer advocates say the laws don’t go far enough.
Canada is looking to reform its copyright act to introduce a consumer right to repair electronics, home appliances and farming equipment.
The main reason? Is it just government inaction or opposition by industry?
There is a long and predictable list of opponents to right to repair laws.
By and large, opposition comes from the manufacturers who see these laws as a hit to their bottom line.
Companies often deny there are any obstacles to repairing their products. Or they cite concerns over intellectual property, safety, security or environmental grounds.
But underlying all these arguments is a simpler reason: companies would make less money if consumers repaired rather than bought a new product, and less money again if they lose their hold on who can repair specific products.
Fixing your tractor often isn’t as easy as it should be. Shutterstock
At present, companies win and consumers lose. When companies can direct you to only use an authorised repair outlet, there’s no risk of competition driving down the cost of repairs.
Manufacturers often respond with industry-led, voluntary initiatives such as the recent agreement between tractor giant John Deere and lobby group American Farm Bureau.
The problem is, voluntary agreements often don’t work and regulation is needed for the manufacturers to act upon their promises.
As Australia grapples with its thorny plastic waste crisis, it’s a timely reminder of the need to go faster. Environment minister Tanya Plibersek used the collapse of the soft-plastics recycling Redcycle to call on industry to do more on recycling – or see new recycling regulations introduced.
What would right to repair laws mean for Australia?
If we gain the right to repair, we could:
expect new products to be able to be repaired
expect to be able to repair products anywhere – not just at manufacturer centres.
This would save us all money, and divert significant volumes of waste from landfill.
If we return to the old ways of repairing rather than throwing out products, we would also trigger a rebirth of repair-based businesses, employment growth and up-skilling.
But these benefits will only arrive if the government ensures any such laws are binding.
Leanne Wiseman receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) Future Fellowship Scheme for her project, Unlocking Digital Innovation: Intellectual Property and the Right to Repair .
John Gertsakis receives funding from the Australian and Queensland governments, and sits on the Australian government’s new circular economy advisory group
You might have heard the phrase “social determinants of health”. It’s the idea that social factors – such as poverty, access to education, where you live and whether you face discrimination – have a huge influence on your health and life expectancy.
These determinants explain why worse health outcomes persist for some groups of people, despite incredible advances in medical care. This understanding has helped improve health policy in Australia and overseas.
We wanted to explore that idea in relation to incarceration. That is, to quantify what social factors increase a person’s chance of ending up in prison, and to use that to improve policy and reduce the harms and costs of incarceration.
We analysed studies of a data set containing information on 2,731 people who have been incarcerated in NSW.
The data comes from government agencies: NSW police, courts, corrections, and health and human services agencies such as housing and child protection. The data set is longitudinal. That means we can see the contact people had with services and institutions over time – from brushes with child protection services and police, to admissions to hospital and time spent in custody.
We identified eight factors as “social determinants of justice”. Our analysis showed that your chance of ending up in prison is greatly increased by:
having been in out of home (foster) care
receiving a poor school education
being Indigenous
having early contact with police
having unsupported mental health and cognitive disability
problematic alcohol and other drug use
experiencing homelessness or unstable housing
coming from or living in a disadvantaged location
And importantly, we found the more of these factors you experience, the more likely you are to be incarcerated and reincarcerated.
The people in our data set are often in custody on remand (not yet sentenced) and for minor offences, going in and out of the system on a criminal legal conveyor belt. This damages lives and doesn’t make our communities safer long term.
Why these factors?
We know from decades of work on the social determinants of health that our health outcomes are greatly affected by our social and economic context.
People working in this area have developed the concept of the social determinants of health inequity. Poor nutrition can contribute to chronic disease, but we’ve learned it doesn’t help to just tell people to eat healthier food because there are many barriers to being able to do that. Policy needs to focus on making nutritious food affordable and accessible to really make a difference.
For justice outcomes, there are also structural factors at play. For example, a person with cognitive disability who grew up in a middle class family with access to early support is very unlikely to go to prison, even if they are involved in offending. They have greater access to social advantages than, say, an Aboriginal person with cognitive disability from a remote town that has many police officers but few social services.
We can see from government data how many people end up in youth and adult detention after child protection, education, disability and health services fail them. Activists and advocates from racialised and disadvantaged communities have been speaking up about this for many years.
All this highlights that we need broader system and policy changes to reduce the unacceptable social and economic costs of incarceration.
We have further developed the concept of the social determinants of justice to identify the “causes of the causes” of who goes to prison. These are:
entrenchment of poverty and unequal access to resources in families and neighbourhoods
structural racism and discrimination, in particular experienced by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities and people with disability
failure to adequately respond to the abuse, violence and trauma experienced by so many children and young people
operation of the criminal legal system itself in the way that it is criminogenic; that is, it increases rather than reduces the likelihood of future incarceration.
The social determinants of justice. McCausland & Baldry, 2023
To really make a difference to one of the most pressing policy challenges in Australia – the shamefully high rates of incarceration of Indigenous people and those with disability and mental health issues – we need to focus efforts and resources on addressing these social determinants.
To truly reduce the harms and costs of incarceration, we can’t just roll out behaviour-change programs in prisons. And we can’t just focus on what police are doing or what happens to people in court – though these are important.
As well as a major overhaul of the criminal legal system, we also have to make sure other government agencies and non-government organisations are being held accountable; that people are getting the services and support they need before they end up in prison.
The social determinants of justice could inform policy to ensure police are not the frontline service for people in crisis.
It could lead to changed government procurement processes that recognise the value of Aboriginal community-controlled organisations providing culturally led support.
It could guide a holistic case management model for people at risk of contact with the criminal legal system. It could be used in evaluating a diversion program to inform improvements.
It could inform a whole-of-government approach to enabling people to thrive in their communities instead of wasting lives and billions of dollars through incarceration.
Ruth McCausland receives funding from the Paul Ramsay Foundation and NHMRC and is affiliated with the Community Restorative Centre.
Eileen Baldry receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is affiliated with the Justice Reform Initiative.
This week marks the beginning of Jacinda Ardern’s life outside parliament, since she officially ceased to be an electorate MP at midnight last Saturday. Her legacy as prime minister will be discussed and disputed, but there’s no doubt her influence will continue be felt, both in Aotearoa New Zealand and internationally.
When Ardern delivered her valedictory statement earlier this month, I was in Canada as a visiting speaker at the University of Alberta. My lectures and workshops included sessions on gender politics and the pandemic, media representations of women leaders, and the possibilities for leading with kindness. Invariably, audiences wanted to know more about Jacinda Ardern.
People questioned why New Zealanders appeared to have forgotten their country’s internationally recognised success in the fight against COVID-19. They were curious about why New Zealanders were reportedly feeling antipathy towards a prime minister whose commitment to tolerance and multilateralism was praised overseas.
As citizens of a country that is home to three constitutionally recognised Aboriginal groups and numerous treaties, Canadians asked why the Ardern-led government’s Indigenous policy initiatives seemed so “unsettling for settlers”.
And they wondered whether it was inevitable that Ardern would face hostility from a noisy minority that disliked being governed by a young woman, who became a mother while in office and who used the language of kindness.
There was also some bemusement. The coverage they had seen of Ardern’s leadership experience sat at odds with their perception of New Zealand as an egalitarian and liberal society where women prime ministers and party leaders were almost commonplace.
More in common than gender: Finnish leader Sanna Marin with Jacinda Ardern in November 2022. Getty Images
Gender politics
In response, I drew on evidence demonstrating how the media often view women as a novelty in the upper echelons of politics. For example, in her study of news coverage of four women prime ministers from New Zealand, Australia and Canada, Linda Trimble reveals that gender is explicitly referenced.
As she notes, we seldom see men asked about the challenges of being a male leader, and this informs assessments of female leaders’ performance. The research also shows this use of gender references is most common when a country experiences its first female political leader.
Yet when Ardern became Labour leader, throughout her tenure and on her departure from politics, it seemed her gender continued to have news value: we first read about “Jacindamania” just two hours after she became leader, followed by questions from talk show hosts about her motherhood intentions.
The following year, a BBC interviewer asked about Ardern’s feminist credentials in light of her intention to marry her partner, and whether she felt guilt about being a working mother.
Even in late 2022, Ardern had to respond to a journalist’s suggestion that her meeting with then Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin was about them both being young female leaders. Needless to say, both women rejected this outright, with Ardern pointing out the same question hadn’t been directed at John Key and Barrack Obama.
Ardern’s ‘otherness’
The combination of being both a woman and the youngest prime minister in 161 years may have led to this personalised coverage. Certainly, having a baby while in office accentuated her as novel and newsworthy, nationally and internationally.
In her valedictory statement, Ardern implicitly addressed this “otherness”:
I leave knowing I was the best mother I could be. You can be that person and be here […] I do hope I have demonstrated something else entirely. That you can be anxious, sensitive, kind, and wear your heart on your sleeve. You can be a mother, or not, an ex-Mormon or not, a nerd, a crier, a hugger – you can be all of these things, and not only can you be here, you can lead.
New Zealanders will recall that Ardern did not seek the party leadership ahead of the 2017 election. Furthermore, when all votes were counted, Labour was a distant second to the centre-right National Party in both votes and seats.
But by navigating Labour into an unlikely coalition with New Zealand First, Ardern positioned Labour to win at least two terms in office. Had National formed a government in 2017, it may have gone on to win again in 2020. After all, that party’s leadership had considerable experience in managing crises.
That said, Ardern’s version of an ethics of care and her emphasis on kindness were new to New Zealand politics and important to pandemic management. This eventually became intolerable to those who opposed vaccine mandates and managed isolation, and those disturbed by policies and programs aimed at realising the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples and Te Tiriti o Waitangi.
But Ardern’s non-adversarial, inclusive communication style, and her demonstrable competence, helped Labour win back a large number of women voters who had steadily abandoned the party during its time in opposition under a series of male leaders.
Not long after Ardern became party leader in 2017, one political columnist wrote
that she did not “have to become Labour’s Joan of Arc to succeed”. Those “expecting her to be the party’s salvation and deliver them the government benches”, the columnist went on, “have set their expectations too high”.
Perhaps by promising policy “transformation”, Ardern set her own expectations too high. And by being a relentlessly positive young woman leader, perhaps the gendered media coverage was inevitable.
But ultimately she succeeded in saving Labour from ongoing opposition, becoming the legend it was suggested she could be. And, as I witnessed in Canada, there are young people elsewhere who Jacinda Ardern has inspired to lead with kindness.
Jennifer Curtin received funding from the Canada Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council to study pathways to the premiership in Australia and Canada (with Linda Trimble). The University of Alberta sponsored Jennifer as a Distinguished Visitor in March-April 2023. For data on the NZES 2020 gender gap, please contact the author.
Climate change, pollution and overfishing are just a few problems that need addressing to maintain a healthy blue planet. Everyone must get involved – but it’s easy to feel overwhelmed and unsure where to start.
Of course we can start with the obvious – making sure we reduce, reuse and recycle. Yet, given the scale of the challenge, these small, relatively simple steps are not enough. So, how can we encourage people to do more?
There is controversy about the best approach. Some argue focusing on easy actions is distracting and can lead people to overestimate their positive impact, reducing the chance they will do more.
However, our new research found promoting small and relatively easy actions, such as reducing plastic use, can be a useful entry point for engaging in other, potentially more effective actions around climate change.
Marine plastic pollution is set to quadruple by 2050 and efforts to reduce this have received a lot of attention. In this arena, Australia is making significant progress.
For example, last year scientists discovered the amount of plastic litter found on Australian coasts had reduced by 30% since 2012-13. Seven out of eight Australian states and territories have also committed to ban single-use plastics.
For example, without an urgent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, coral reefs could lose more than 90% coral cover within the next decade. This includes our very own Great Barrier Reef.
Climate change is the major threat to the Great Barrier Reef. Yolanda Waters
When it comes to climate action, Australia is behind. Many Australians are also unsure which actions to take. For example, a 2020 study asked more than 4,000 Australians what actions were needed to help the Great Barrier Reef. The most common response (25.6%) involved reducing plastic pollution. Only 4.1% of people mentioned a specific action to mitigate climate change.
‘Spillover’ behaviour
We ran an experiment to test whether we could shift this preference for action on plastic into action on climate change.
Our experiment was based on a theory known as “behavioural spillover”. This theory assumes the actions we take in the present influence the actions we take in future.
Some experts argue focusing on reducing plastic use – a relatively simple action – can help build momentum and open the door for other environmental actions in the future. This is known as positive spillover.
Conversely, those in the “plastic distraction” camp argue if people reduce their plastic use, they might feel they have done enough and become less likely to engage in additional actions. This is known as negative spillover.
Experimenting with spillover from plastic to climate
To test whether we could encourage spillover behaviour in the context of the Great Barrier Reef, we conducted an online experiment with representative sample of 581 Australians.
Participants were randomly allocated to one of three experimental groups or a control group. The first group received information about plastic pollution on the reef along with prompts to remind them of their efforts to tackle the problem in the past week (a “behaviour primer”). The second group received the reef plastic information only. The third group received information about the reef and climate change. The control group received general information about World Heritage sites, with no call to action or mention of the Great Barrier Reef.
Participants were then asked whether they would be likely to take a range of climate actions, such as reducing personal greenhouse gas emissions and talking to others about climate change. They also had the opportunity to “click” on a few actions embedded within the survey such as signing an online petition for climate action.
Participants were asked how likely they were to take a range of climate actions. (Note: this graphic was not used in the survey.) Yolanda Waters
Compared to the control group, those provided with information about plastic pollution were more willing to engage with climate actions, particularly when they were reminded of positive past behaviours. Whereas those provided with information about climate change showed no significant difference.
Plastic messages also had a stronger positive effect on climate action for those who were politically conservative, compared to those more politically progressive.
But the approach didn’t work for everyone. We repeated the experiment with 572 self-identified ocean advocates, many of whom already engaged with marine conservation issues. For this audience, talking about plastic and their past efforts made them less likely to engage with climate action compared to the control group.
The ocean is warming at an alarming rate, bleaching coral on the Great Barrier Reef. Should we still be talking about plastic? The Ocean Agency / Ocean Image Bank
So what does all this mean?
Our results suggest it’s possible to motivate climate action for the reef without slipping back into conversations about plastic. Here are four ways to help achieve this:
Remind people of the small actions they already take: reminding people of their positive contributions and making them feel like they are capable of doing more can open the gateway to further action.
Connect the dots between plastic and climate:plastics are primarily derived from fossil fuels and production alone accounts for billions of tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions each year. Making it clear that a fight against fossil fuels is a fight against both plastic and climate can help guide people towards those extra climate actions.
Provide clear calls to (climate) action:research shows most people are unable to identify climate actions on their own. As a result, they tend to get stuck on common behaviours such as recycling. Giving people clear advice on how they can contribute to mitigating climate change is crucial.
Know your audience: spillover from plastic to climate is more likely in a general audience. If your network is full of ocean advocates, it might be better to skip the plastic conversation and dive straight into conversations about climate change actions.
It’s important to remember that people’s first steps don’t have to be their only steps. Sometimes, they just need a little guidance for the journey ahead.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
In the phenomenally successful TV show Succession, wealthy media magnate Logan Roy (played by Brian Cox) is frequently cruel to his adult children. He insults them, pits them against each other and can be cold or menacing. Despite the years of torment, the Roy children clearly crave their father’s approval.
The show highlights a struggle some adult children face: the need for approval from an abusive parent.
Some would suggest the solution is simple: cut ties with the parent, limit contact, rid your life of this difficult relationship. But this is often not realistic.
Research into relationships can help us understand why some people desire the approval of a parent who is abusive, insensitive or inconsistent in their love – or who rate high on what’s known as “dark trait” tendencies (narcissism, psychopathy and Machiavellianism).
Attachment anxiety
Studies into parent-child relationships based in attachment theory (a widely researched theory of human bonding) suggest the need for approval is a feature of people who experience an insecure attachment style known as attachment anxiety.
People experiencing attachment anxiety tend to crave relationship closeness, which includes obsessing over a parent or romantic partner, and can hold strong fears of being rejected or abandoned.
According to attachment theory, attachment anxiety can develop when the care provided by parents or guardians early in life is inept or inconsistent.
Inept or inconsistent care
Inept care is when a parent provides some type of help, but the care provided does not meet the needs of the child.
For example, a child may need encouragement in achieving a challenging task. Instead, the parent provides sympathy and says the task is too hard for the child. The parent may even try to do the task for the child, which can make them feel helpless or even incompetent.
Inconsistent care is when the parent sometimes provides care that meets the child’s needs, triggering happiness or relief in the child. They feel seen, validated, and understood.
On other occasions, however, the parent may respond in ways that do not meet the child’s needs.
The parent may withdraw, avoid, or neglect the child in their time of need. On other occasions, the parent may blame the child for asking for help – or make them feel guilty by framing their request for help as a burden that affects the parent’s own well-being.
Parenting and the dark traits
Some believe these responses by parents are methods to manipulate their children to behave or feel a certain way. Research into the dark traits suggests those who score high on these qualities lack emotional warmth, act in hostile ways, and exert control over their children.
People with these tendencies have been shown to dehumanise others, even those closest to them. This can involve treating family and romantic partners as if they have no feelings, as if they are irrational, stupid, rigid like a robot, or as a means to an end.
Our own work has shown people can act this way because their own parents were hostile towards them some 20 years prior.
Intergenerational transmission
For some parents, however, engaging in inept and inconsistent care is not driven by conscious motivations to manipulate and hurt their children.
Rather, they may not know how to parent differently. It may be that they too had parents who provided inept or inconsistent care.
Many of these parents have difficulties controlling their own distress when parenting their children. For some, their own worries and concerns become so intense they end up focusing on their own worries over those of their children.
This is an example of intergenerational transmission, where patterns of attachment and parenting can be passed from one generation to the next.
A ‘partial reinforcement schedule’
Irrespective of the reason, the fallout of inept or inconsistent caregiving is that children are placed on what’s known as a partial reinforcement schedule.
This is where the child’s cries for help are sometimes attended to. They sometimes receive the love and support they require. But other times, the child experiences invalidation, neglect, or gets the message they are not understood or are harming their parent.
Because of this partial reinforcement schedule, children work harder to gain the attention and love of their parents. The child might think: “If I try that little harder to get their attention and approval, they’ll see what I really need, and they’ll provide me with the love, comfort, acknowledgement I desire”.
How can we break the spell?
The need for approval is powerful for good reason, rooted in a long relationship history with our caregivers. Addressing this need often requires psychological intervention.
Schema therapy aims to help people understand why they have such a strong need for approval.
It uses cognitive, behavioural and emotion-focused strategies to help increase a person’s tolerance of disapproval. It might involve helping someone develop a better sense of their own identity, or use imagery techniques and affirmations to help clients validate themselves rather than seeking approval from an insensitive parent.
For people facing these struggles with a parent, try to identify when your need for approval is triggered, the emotions you feel, and what approval-seeking behaviours you engage in. It can help to write a pros and cons list about how the need for approval affects your life. Self-awareness can help lead to behaviour change.
It can also help to celebrate your own successes and identify your own skills and achievements. Doing so can provide you with evidence that challenges your need for approval from others. Developing self-compassion can also help.
Finally, positive affirmations can help challenge your own negative self-beliefs and increase your tendency to be self-approving. This can be as simple as writing down a series of truthful positive statements about yourself. You can refer to these statements when self-doubt creeps in, or when the need for approval of others becomes loud in your mind.
If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.
Gery Karantzas receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is a couples therapist and founder of www.relationshipscienceonline.com
New Zealand Parliament Buildings, Wellington, New Zealand.
New Zealand Politics Daily is a collation of the most prominent issues being discussed in New Zealand. It is edited by Dr Bryce Edwards of The Democracy Project.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Aaron Robotham, Research Associate Professor & UWA Research Fellow, The University of Western Australia
Antikythera mechanism in National Archaeological Museum, Athens, Greece.Viacheslav Lopatin/Shutterstock
The coastal town of Exmouth in Western Australia is due to experience one of the most spectacular astronomical phenomena on April 20 2023 – a total solar eclipse.
Eclipses have entranced us for millennia. But it turns out calculating exactly when and where we can watch an eclipse in its full glory can be surprisingly hard.
Being so dominant in the sky, the Sun and the Moon were the most captivating celestial bodies for ancient cultures to observe. Naturally, they also tried to anticipate and predict their motions.
While the Sun’s movement is quite simple, the Moon moves across the sky with much more complexity. For one thing, it has phases; it also grows and shrinks in apparent size as it travels on an elliptical orbit around Earth.
On top of this, the Moon appears to rock and wobble quite haphazardly on its journey across the sky, making it extremely challenging to accurately describe its orbit. In fact, explaining the Moon’s motion was the only problem that made Isaac Newton’s head hurt.
Since eclipses are so startling to witness, many ancient peoples both noted their occurrence in writing and art, and discovered the repeating characteristics of such events.
During a lunar eclipse, where Earth blocks sunlight that would otherwise illuminate a full moon, the dimmed Moon takes on a bloody hue. Many cultures attached foreboding to such events (like the partial lunar eclipse seen during the Fall of Constantinople in 1453) and quite reasonably wondered when the next such event might occur.
A lunar eclipse visible in Miami, Florida in 2010. FloridaStock/Shutterstock
Various cultures around the world have independently discovered eclipses seem to occur on an 18-year cycle. It was mentioned in written records by the Babylonians and Assyrians (of ancient Mesopotamia and modern Iraq), and oral tradition suggests the cycle was used for ceremonial purposes by Torres Strait Islanders in what is now Australia.
This 18-year cycle, which can persist as a sequence for over a thousand years, is now known as a Saros cycle. The word “Saros” was referenced in the 10th-century Byzantine Suda encyclopedia, and possibly has a Greek origin (“saro” meaning “sweep”, perhaps relating to how eclipses sweep across the sky).
The Saros cycle represents how long it takes for the Sun-Earth-Moon system to return to almost exactly the same triangular configuration. So, if you see a lunar eclipse, you can expect another one 18 years later, visible from most places on Earth.
If you were an ancient culture that happened to observe a total solar eclipse, you would have been very lucky indeed (they occur roughly every 375 years at a given region on Earth). But would you have seen a similar event 18 years later? Alas, no. While there probably was another total solar eclipse 18 years later, it would have been over a completely different part of the planet.
After 54 years – three Saros cycles – the eclipse region should have returned to roughly the same position on Earth. But only very roughly, as it could be thousands of kilometres away from the previous observation spot.
Worldwide, there is a total solar eclipse visible somewhere roughly every 18 months during one of two possible “eclipse seasons” per year. This is much more frequent than an 18-year Saros cycle, and is possible because multiple repeating Saros sequences overlap at once (roughly a dozen), each offset by at least six months. For example, the 2028 total solar eclipse that will be visible in Sydney is part of an entirely different Saros sequence than this year’s eclipse.
After about a thousand years, when one long-term Saros sequence ends, another will begin with slightly different timing.
From antiquity to modern day
So could our ancient ancestors actually predict eclipses? Yes, if we are talking about lunar eclipses, and perhaps even partial solar eclipses.
A famous predictive example is the Eclipse of Thales in 585 BCE, although the fact that a total solar eclipse happened over Greece was almost certainly more luck than science. That is, they wouldn’t have predicted that 18 years later (567 BCE) a total solar eclipse was visible in what is now the United States.
It is likely the famed Greek Antikythera Mechanism, an astoundingly complicated 2,000-year-old mechanical device that was used to predict the night sky, could calculate the 18-year Saros accurately. But significantly, it could not predict total solar eclipses at a precise place on Earth – just their timing.
The Saros period (marked with a red rectangle) is visible on a fragment of the ‘user manual’ of the Antikythera mechanism. Xmoussas/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA
In summary, it is clear ancient people could predict timings for lunar eclipses and partial solar eclipses, but there is no convincing evidence of people predicting the times and locations of total solar eclipses.
Entering the modern era of science, the first true prediction of a total solar eclipse (both in time and location) occurred in 1715. Edmond Halley (of comet fame) correctly predicted, to within four minutes and 20 miles, a total solar eclipse that rather conveniently passed over his own house in London. He did this by making full use of Isaac Newton’s new theories of gravity and orbital mechanics: the Principia.
Today, we don’t rely on calculating the orbits of the whole Solar System to predict eclipses. For example, NASA uses a highly advanced form of an ancient technique – pattern recognition. Using some 38,000 repeating mathematical terms, NASA can predict both solar and lunar eclipses for 1,000 years into the future. Beyond that, the Moon’s wobble and Earth’s changing rotation make eclipse prediction less accurate.
So for those of you lucky enough to witness a total solar eclipse this month, take a moment to think about what this shared experience has meant to humans around the world for thousands of years.
Trying to predict and explain this phenomenon has directly driven advancements in mathematics and orbital mechanics, and with its beauty we have been forced to embrace the limits of our scientific knowledge.
Aaron Robotham receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC).
Sabine Bellstedt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
In a splash of articles published over the past two weeks, the British Guardian has acknowledged and apologised for its historical links with slavery. The Scott Trust, owners of the newspaper that became a global news website, outlined how the Guardian’s founders were linked to transatlantic slavery and announced a programme of restorative justice.
John Edward Taylor, the journalist who founded the Manchester Guardian in 1821, profited from partnerships with cotton manufacturers and merchants who imported raw cotton produced by enslaved people in Jamaica and in the Sea Islands along the coast of South Carolina and Georgia.
In Australia, our oldest surviving newspaper has its own historical links to the shameful practice of slave labour.
In 1841, John Fairfax (1804-1877) became the first of five generations of Fairfax family owners of the Sydney Morning Herald, which had been founded in 1831 as the Sydney Herald.
John Fairfax c 1861. Wikicommons
The Fairfax family also became major shareholders in Colonial Sugar Refining Company (CSR). CSR was founded in Sydney in 1855 by Edward Knox, but it descended from the Australasian Sugar Company, established in 1842. The precise date on which the Fairfax family became sugar investors is not known, but the family was certainly involved by 1855, when John Fairfax’s daughter, Emily, married the general manager of CSR.
In the 1870s and 1880s, CSR expanded into milling cane in Queensland and Fiji. It profited from the use of what was effectively slave labour through the abduction and importation of tens of thousands of South Sea Islanders, who were disparagingly called “Kanakas” (a Hawaiian word meaning “man”).
According to the Australian Human Rights Commission, between 1863 and 1904, “an estimated 55,000 to 62,500 Islanders were brought to Australia to labour on sugar-cane and cotton farms in Queensland and northern New South Wales”. They were forced to perform backbreaking labour in appalling conditions.
Most came from Vanuatu and Solomon Islands, but they also arrived from more than 70 other Pacific Islands. CSR chartered ships for the express purpose of “recruiting” labourers from these islands. Men, women and children, some as young as nine, were forced, coerced or tricked into coming to Australia. The practice of kidnapping them was known as “blackbirding” (“blackbird” was another word for slave).
Although a system of indentured labour was later established, Pacific Islanders were still exploited, denied basic rights, and paid miserable wages. In 1901, two acts of parliament facilitated their mass deportation as part of establishing the White Australia Policy.
Although the Sydney Morning Herald was normally a strong supporter of the White Australia Policy, the paper wanted it suspended in the case of the cane fields. In August 1901, it argued there was a special need for “black” labour in the sugar fields of Queensland because the task was not suitable for white men.
The sun, so deadly to the white man, is to (the ‘kanaka’) only the source of a genial warmth […] these islanders are (like) the Australian aborigine (sic) […] just sufficiently intelligent for work in the canefield […] cheap, and […] inured to outdoor labour in a tropical climate.
The paper argued that “white men” were still getting “all the work calling for intelligence”. And, if the “kanakas” had to go, then the sugar planter should be given some other form of help such as a duty on sugar. At no stage did the paper declare its owners’ interest in the issue.
Pacific Islanders were brought in to work in the cane fields. Queensland State Archives
Like the mining giant Broken Hill Proprietary (BHP), CSR became a powerful monopoly in Australia. Both were helped along by friends in the press, newspaper owners who were heavily invested in companies they were promoting and demanding government assistance for. (Aside from CSR, the Fairfaxes were also shareholders in BHP, as were other newspaper families, including the Symes and the Baillieus).
Although most Pacific Island labourers had been deported from Australia by 1908, CSR continued to prosper off the back of indentured (mostly Indian) labourers in Fiji, where there were severe working conditions and high mortality rates. By 1910, CSR was one of the three largest companies in Australia.
In 1915, the federal government granted CSR protection via an embargo on imported sugar. In 1923, the Queensland state government signed an agreement with CSR that meant the company effectively had a monopoly on sugar production (which lasted until 1989).
By 1930, CSR was the wealthiest company in Australia and the Fairfaxes were among the country’s wealthiest families. The family’s links with CSR were still active in the 1960s. By then, CSR had branched out into industrial chemicals, building materials and, disastrously, asbestos.
The longstanding connection between CSR and the Fairfaxes was not widely known in the mid 20th century, and nor would it have attracted much interest, then, let alone condemnation on the basis of CSR’s history of forced labour.
On the contrary, in a newspaper industry filled with ruthless proprietors, including liars, thugs and crooks, the Fairfaxes had a reputation for being decent, moral and ethical. They were known for being cultured, civically-minded and philanthropic.
The Fairfaxes controlled the Sydney Morning Herald for 149 years, until 1990 when a misguided takeover action mounted by young Warwick Fairfax ended in financial disaster.
Since 2019, the Sydney Morning Herald (along with The Age and The Australian Financial Review) have been owned by the Nine group, a television company that was founded by the Fairfaxes’ nemesis, Frank Packer, a rival newspaper and magazine owner in Sydney. Packer was not known for his philanthropy, nor for holding enlightened attitudes on racial equality.
Racism was often blatantly expressed in newspaper pages, encouraging oppression, discrimination and inhumane treatment to occur, including in the sugar plantations of Queensland. In 1935, the Sydney Morning Herald conceded that “blackbirding” – a practice it had implicitly supported in the 1890s and early 1900s – was actually a “type of slavery”. Now would be a good time for Australia’s oldest newspaper to follow the lead of the Guardian and investigate and acknowledge how its own growth in the 19th and 20th centuries was connected to that slavery.
Sally Young is the author of Paper Emperors (UNSW Press, 2019) and its sequel, Media Monsters: The Transformation of Australia’s Newspaper Empires (UNSW Press), which will be out in June. Comment was sought from the editor of the Sydney Morning Herald for this article but no reply was provided at the time of writing.
Sally Young has received research funding from the Australian Research Council and the State Library of NSW. Between 2013-15, she wrote a monthly column for The Age (previously owned by Fairfax Media, now owned by Nine).
For every feeling we experience, there is a lot of complex biology going on underneath our skin.
Pain involves our whole body. When faced with possible threats, the feeling of pain develops in a split second and can help us to “detect and protect”. But over time, our nerve cells can become over-sensitised. This means they can react more strongly and easily to something that normally wouldn’t hurt or would hurt less. This is called “sensitisation”.
Sensitisation can affect anyone, but some people may be more prone to it than others due to possible genetic factors, environmental factors or previous experiences. Sensitisation can contribute to chronic pain conditions like fibromyalgia, irritable bowel syndrome, migraine or low back pain.
But it might be possible to retrain our brains to manage or even reduce pain.
Our body senses possible threats via nerve endings called nociceptors. We can think of these like a microphones transmitting the word “danger” through wires (nerves and the spinal cord) up to a speaker (the brain). If you sprain your ankle, a range of tiny chemical reactions start there.
When sensitisation happens in a sore body part, it’s like more microphones join in over a period of weeks or months. Now the messages can be transmitted up the wire more efficiently. The volume of the danger message gets turned way up.
Then, in the spinal cord, chemical reactions and the number of receptors there also adapt to this new demand. The more messages coming up, the more reactions triggered and the louder the messages sent on to the brain.
And sensitisation doesn’t always stop there. The brain can also crank the volume up by making use of more wires in the spinal cord that reach the speaker. This is one of the proposed mechanisms of central sensitisation. As time ticks on, a sensitised nervous system will create more and more feelings of pain, seemingly regardless of the amount of bodily damage at the initial site of pain.
When we are sensitised, we may experience pain that is out of proportion to the actual damage (hyperalgesia), pain that spreads to other areas of the body (referred pain), pain that lasts a long time (chronic or persistent pain), or pain triggered by harmless things like touch, pressure or temperature (allodynia).
Because pain is a biopsychosocial experience (biological and psychological and social), we may also feel other symptoms like fatigue, mood changes, sleep problems or difficulty concentrating.
Community education about pain might teach good habits from an early age. Shutterstock
Around the clock, our bodies and brain are constantly changing and adapting. Neuroplasticity is when the brain changes in response to experiences, good or bad.
Pain science research suggests we may be able to retrain ourselves to improve wellbeing and take advantage of neuroplasticity. There are some promising approaches that target the mechanisms behind sensitisation and aim to reverse them.
One example is graded motor imagery. This technique uses mental and physical exercises like identifying left and right limbs, imagery and mirror box therapy. It has been tested for conditions like complex regional pain syndrome (a condition that causes severe pain and swelling in a limb after an injury or surgery) and in phantom limb pain after amputation. Very gradual exposure to increasing stimuli may be behind these positive effects on a sensitised nervous system. While results are promising, more research is needed to confirm its benefits and better understand how it works. The same possible mechanisms of graded exposure underpin some recently developed apps for sufferers.
Exercise can also retrain the nervous system. Regular physical activity can decrease the sensitivity of our nervous system by changing processes at a cellular level, seemingly re-calibrating danger message transmission. Importantly, exercise doesn’t have to be high intensity or involve going to the gym. Low-impact activities such as walking, swimming, or yoga can be effective in reducing nervous system sensitivity, possibly by providing new evidence of perceived safety.
Researchers are exploring whether learning about the science of pain and changing the way we think about it may foster self-management skills, like pacing activities and graded exposure to things that have been painful in the past. Understanding how pain is felt and why we feel it can help improve function, reduce fear and lower anxiety.
If you have chronic or severe pain that interferes with your daily life, you should consult a health professional like a doctor and/or a pain specialist who can diagnose your condition and prescribe appropriate active treatments.
In Australia, a range of multidisciplinary pain clinics offer physical therapies like exercise, psychological therapies like mindfulness and cognitive behavioural therapy. Experts can also help you make lifestyle changes to improve sleep and diet to manage and reduce pain. A multi-pronged approach makes the most sense given the complexity of the underlying biology.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alan N Williams, Associate Investigator, ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, UNSW Sydney
Joseph Lycett, Aborigines using fire to hunt kangaroo (c.1817)National Library of Australia
Indigenous Australians have conducted cultural burning for at least ten millenia and the practice helped reduce bushfire risk in the past, our new research shows.
The study provides more evidence of the very long history of cultural burning in southeast Australia. While the burning was probably not specifically used to manage bushfires, our data suggest it nonetheless reduced fire extremes.
Indigenous cultural burning involves applying frequent, small and low-intensity or “cool” fires to clean out grasses and undergrowth. But the scientific evidence for when in history Indigenous Australians used cultural burning, and what they were seeking to achieve, is unclear.
Our findings suggest Indigenous cultural burning in the past may have helped reduce the intensity of bushfires. These findings are important because evidence suggests cultural burning can assist modern land management as climate change worsens.
The findings are important as bushfires worsen in future. Dan Peled/AAP
When did cultural burning start in Australia?
Some experts suggest cultural burning was adopted in the Pleistocene period, about 50,000 to 10,000 years ago.
Increases in charcoal in sediments have been linked to the arrival of humans, and subsequent vegetation change, on the Atherton Tablelands in northeast Queensland from about 45,000 years ago.
However, similar changes occurred on some Pacific Islands at times when humans were not present. This has cast doubt on whether past fires in Australia were the result of human activity.
Another point of view suggests cultural burning was adopted only in the last few thousand years.
Some current cultural burning programs in Australia were only established or re-established in the second half of the 20th Century. But they mostly take place in arid and tropical environments, and it’s not certain whether they can be readily applied to temperate regions.
Our research sought to shed light on when cultural burning in southeast Australia began, and what effect it had. We focused on a site in the Illawarra region of New South Wales. In particular, we examined sediments from the bed of Lake Courijdah in the Thirlmere Lakes National Park, which holds a unique record into the past.
Lake Courijdah holds a unique record into the past. Martin Krogh
A spotlight on charcoal
Sediments in Lake Courijdah cover two time periods: one before Aboriginal people are thought to have arrived in Australia, and one after.
The older sediments, from about 135,000 to 105,000 years ago, included a period known as the Last Interglacial. This climatic period was very similar to today’s and would have produced similar environmental conditions. Importantly, humans were not present at this time.
Above this layer were deposits dating to the last 18,000 years, extending from the end of a cool and probably arid period known as the Last Glacial Maximum up to about 500 years ago.
It’s well-documented that in this time period, Indigenous people were living across the Sydney Basin, including the Illawarra region.
From these sediments, we examined the accumulation of charcoal – a common method used to determine the frequency and relative size of bushfires. We also used a new method known as “Fourier Transform Infrared spectroscopy”. It determines bushfire severity based on the chemical composition of the charcoal produced.
Using this new method is important. Recent research by our UNSW lab showed how traditional charcoal techniques may mask evidence of human fire use (in the form of cool fires).
Cultural burning can assist modern land management. Pictured: an Indigenous man conducts cultural burning at Cape York. Alan Williams
Our results
So what did we find? During both periods, climatic change was the main driver of fire activity. This suggests human-caused climate change will continue to influence overall fire conditions in future.
But we found a marked difference between the two time periods when looking at the severity of fire. Despite significant climatic change over the last 18,000 years, fire severity remained lower, when compared to the earlier period without humans.
As such, we conclude that Indigenous cultural burning practices undertaken around Thirlmere Lakes from about 10,000 years ago may have suppressed extreme wildfires.
Cultural burning in the region may have begun earlier than this. However, data from before 10,000 years ago is variable – probably as a result of sea-level change – so we can’t say for sure.
Indigenous people using cultural burning were probably not focused on wildfire suppression. Early explorer records, and even more recent work, suggests burning improved hunting prospects and the diversity of resources. However, cultural burning nonetheless appears to have reduced wildfires in this case.
Looking ahead
El Niño conditions are predicted to return to Australia this year. Inevitably, thoughts return to the massive Black Summer bushfire season of 2019-2020 and how to prevent such disasters in future.
Our findings suggest when it comes to future fire management in eastern Australia, traditional practices by Indigenous people should be taken into account in policy and decision-making.
Adopting cultural burning as part of our toolkit is likely to minimise wildfires and help keep people safe.
Alan N Williams is an associate director and a Technical Lead, Aboriginal heritage for EMM Consulting Pty Ltd, an international employee owned company specialising in environmental investigation and assessment
Scott Mooney was part of a group that received funding from the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage Thirlmere Lakes Research Program ‘Thirlmere Lakes: the geomorphology, sub-surface characteristics and long-term perspectives on lake-filling and drying’ 2017-2019. His charcoal research has received funding from the Australian Research Council Discovery Program grant ‘Shaping a sunburnt country: fire, climate and the Australian landscape’ 2020-2022.
Mark Constantine IV does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
This article is part of our series on big ideas for the Universities Accord. The federal government is calling ideas to “reshape and reimagine higher education, and set it up for the next decade and beyond”. A review team is due to finish a draft report in June and a final report in December 2023.
Compulsory tests, essays, regular grades and timed exams are considered a given in university life. But the Universities Accord should change this.
Rigid, traditional assessments need to make way for a more flexible, personalised way of working out what students know and can do. The current system is not only vulnerable to cheating, it also disadvantages those with disability and doesn’t give students the feedback they need.
Students with disability need a different approach
Our research shows university students with a disability are disadvantaged by current assessment formats. It shows adjustments – which are legally required for those with disabilities – don’t always adequately compensate students.
For example, a common adjustment such as extra time for an essay or exam may not be suitable for students with a disability, whose outputs can be affected regardless of time.
Students in our research also reported that accessible spaces and equipment – such as an ergonomic chair – were not reliably available during exams. Even in online exams, text-to-speech software and other assistive technologies are not necessarily compatible with all course materials or assignment file formats.
Research has shown students are hesitant to get an adjustment due to fear of stigmatisation, and experience anxiety or shame over requests for extra assistance to demonstrate their learning.
Extra time on assignments won’t help all students with a disability. Cottonbro Studio/Pexels
AI has radically changed the playing field
At the same time, the rise of generative artificial intelligence tools such as ChatGPT has shown universities need to rethink assessments so as to protect academic integrity.
We know ChatGPT can write material that is good enough to pass exams. So essays and take-home assignments that simply ask students to provide chunks of information will no longer work.
Assessments will need to evaluate more sophisticated capabilities, such as critical thinking, to prevent cheating and demonstrate students’ learning.
caption. Feedback should happen throughout courses, not just with essays and exams.
To have the best impact on learning, feedback should not happen at the same time as students get their marks or final grade.
Instead, it should happen when students need it most: during the semester, so they can use it in subsequent tasks. Comments might be verbal, written or in multimedia formats, and come from lecturers, tutors, peers or even industry.
Survey research also shows about 15% of students are dissatisfied with the feedback they get, and this rises if students have a disability or are an international student.
How to improve assessment
There is a lot that could be done to improve assessment. But here are three significant changes we should focus on immediately:
1. We need to replace regular marks with regular feedback
Rather than final grades for every unit, students should receive regular comments about improving their work.
Then, at the end of their degree, selected assessments or a final project can be used to demonstrate a student’s learning.
Students might also be encouraged to portray their achievements in more contextual and personal ways. They might be able to choose between blog entries or multimedia. Or they might put together a “persuasive portfolio”, which enables students to construct their own evidence of how they are progressing towards course learning outcomes.
This will mean society – including employers – can be more confident that graduates have developed relevant high-level capabilities, rather than immediately forgetting the contents of an exam once it’s over.
This approach is also more inclusive. When individual tasks are considered separately, some formats might advantage particular students. But considering a range of tasks allows students to demonstrate their learning in a way that suits them.
Giving students personal feedback throughout their studies can help keep them engaged. Shutterstock
2. Students should have choice in assessment
Assessment should promote individuality. It should provide choices for students to demonstrate their achievements, to ensure they meet their goals for their future lives.
For example, students studying public health might choose to develop a policy briefing or community education resources on a topic of their choice: both options can demonstrate understanding of a health issue and relevant communication techniques.
Impersonal, cookie-cutter assessments – such as a take-home exam or essay – are vulnerable to cheating. They also won’t teach students how to respond flexibly to evolving work environments.
All assessments need to be designed in ways to minimise additional challenges for students with disabilities or learning differences. Universal assessment design is one approach universities can use here.
This means ensuring instructions, resources, and submissions take multiple formats (for example, text and audiovisual).
If implemented as a matter of routine, assessment for inclusion has the potential to improve the learning experience of many students from diverse backgrounds. Rather than just the ones who know about, and feel comfortable enough, to ask for help.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker says Aotearoa New Zealand is experiencing its fourth wave of covid-19 infection and warns people to stay vigilant.
He said it was not as intense as the previous waves but it was definite, with a gradual rise in the number of self-reported cases every day, as seen in RNZ’s ongoing database of covid-19 information.
“It’s the first distinct rise, a sustained rise in cases this year.
“We’ve seen that numbers reached a low point in February and have been tracking up since then.”
The average number of daily cases sits at about 2000 at the moment, but Professor Baker said the actual number could be higher with people less inclined to test and report.
He said other indicators including the number of hospitalisations, people in intensive care units, deaths and traces of the virus in wastewater were also pointing to a new wave.
He encouraged people to get the new covid booster, isolate if they were infected, and mask up in poorly ventilated environments.
“It’s really important that everyone who has a position in authority thinks about the health of their workforce and their school population and the social venues that they operate in.”
Professor Baker also said that the Ministry of Education should provide monitors to reduce transmission in early childhood centres.
He also encouraged people to mask up on public transport.
“If you’re on a bus commuting … or train, you are going to be in that indoor environment for many hours every week and the ventilation is poor, so that would be a situation where I think masks should still be worn by everyone.”
Most pandemic rules have been scrapped, but people still have to self-isolate for seven days if they test positive, and masks must be worn in hospitals in some circumstances.
This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.
A media network publishing an international research journal has vowed to expand its activities into community media and training initiatives.
The non-profit Asia Pacific Media Network, publisher of the ranked Pacific Journalism Review, says media and community advocates believe there is a need for minority and marginalised groups that feel neglected by the mainstream.
Network chair Dr Heather Devere told the annual general meeting of the publishing group in Mt Roskill yesterday that now that APMN had been consolidated it could turn to some of its wider community goals.
The Asia Pacific Media Network’s AGM yesterday. Image: PMW
Members from Australia, Fiji and Tahiti joined their New Zealand colleagues via Zoom in discussing many plans, including community media mentoring and training for diversity groups.
A proposal for a media conference in Suva, Fiji, next year by Pacific journalism associate professor Shailendra Singh was tabled and adopted in principle.
Dr Devere told the members that the network, established in 2021 to fill the void left by the closure of the Pacific Media Centre and to take on publication of PJR, had made great progress.
The ad hoc group was registered as an incorporated society last year.
“This first year of APMN we have concentrated on establishing a sustainable network that maintains the respected reputation that had been established at the Pacific Media Centre,” Dr Devere said.
“And I am happy to report that thanks to the commitment of a number of people who have the skills and expertise to continue some of this work, APMN is in a good place to look at moving forward into the coming year from a firm base.”
Members of Asia Pacific Media Network at their annual general meeting in the Whānau Hub in Mt Roskill yesterday. Image: David Robie/PMW
Pressing need Community advocate Nik Naidu, an APMN member from the host Whānau Community Centre and Hub, said there was plenty of potential for the new network and there was a pressing need for media skills training to empower marginalised groups.
Retired Sydney journalism professor Chris Nash lamented that journalism schools had become very conservative and were “failing journalism”.
Pacific Journalism Review founder Dr David Robie and network deputy chair said he was encouraged by the developments and believed that APMN was consolidating its innovative role.
Current editor Dr Philip Cass said work on the July 2023 edition of PJR was underway.
“We have received a number of submissions that fall far outside our frame of reference from very distant countries,” he said.
“While this is slightly puzzling, it does indicate how far our name has travelled.”
‘Excited’ by developments This second AGM of the network attracted new supporters, including Filipino media educator, filmmaker and PSTv5 podcaster Rene “Direk” Molina and broadcaster and community social media campaigner Ernestina “Tina” Bonsu Maro.
Some of the publications on AUT’s Tūwhera platform, including Pacific Journalism Review and Pacific Journalism Monographs. Image: PMW
Maro, of Pacific Media Network, who works with Cook Islands and African communities, said she was “excited” by the developments.
“We need more opportunities to tell our own stories,” she said. “The mainstream media isn’t interested in us or our stories.”
Pacific Journalism Review, founded at the University of Papua New Guinea in 1994, has published two independent editions with the APMN, and hopes to celebrate its 30th year in Suva next year.
A presentation was made to AUT scholarly communications librarian Donna Coventry and the Tūwhera digital journals platform in gratitude for the “tremendous” support for PJR since the online edition was launched in 2016.
Broadcaster and community campaigner Ernestina “Tina” Bonsu Maro . . . “We need more opportunities to tell our own stories.” Image: David Robie/PMW
Public opinion will dictate how Japanese seafood is received after the wastewater is disposed of into the Pacific Ocean.
The global seafood market faces turmoil with the release of the Fukushima nuclear wastewater from Japan into the Pacific Ocean, computer modelling predicts.
Japan announced in 2021 it will release more than 1.25 million tonnes of treated Fukushima radioactive wastewater into the sea as part of its plan to decommission the power station when its storage capacity reaches its limit this year.
Seafood is one of the most important food commodities in international trade, far exceeding meat and milk products.
According to the United Nations Comtrade database, global seafood trade has grown from US$7.57 billion in 2009 to US$12.36 billion in 2019, an increase of 63.2 percent.
The Japanese nuclear wastewater discharge raises global worries about the safety of Japanese seafood as public opinion influences consumers’ preference for seafood.
In this empirical study involving American consumers, 30 percent of respondents said they reduced their seafood consumption following the Fukushima nuclear plantaccident and more than half believe Asian seafood poses a risk to consumer health due to the disaster.
Temporary bans Most of Japan’s seafood trading partners, such as China, Russia, India and South Korea, imposed temporary bans on food from several districts around Fukushima in the wake of the accident in 2011.
My research models the potential impact of the Fukushima nuclear wastewater disposal on the global seafood trade using the import and export data for 26 countries which make up more than 92 percent of the world’s trade in marine products.
A community classification theory of complex networks was used to classify seafood trading countries into three communities. Seafood trade is frequent among countries within each individual community and less between the communities.
The first community contains Ecuador, Italy, Morocco, Portugal and Spain. The second contains Denmark, France, Germany, Iceland, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Poland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.
The third community contains China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan of China, Russia, Thailand, the United States and Vietnam.
Modelling shows China, South Korea, and the US maintain a steady trade of seafood imports and exports between them. Data used for the modelling shows that the rate of change in trade between China and Korea, China and the US and between Korea and the US is very close to zero.
However, China, South Korea and the US are expected to increase their seafood imports from Denmark, France, Norway and other community group two countries while reducing seafood exports to them. This is because these three countries have already reduced their seafood trade with Japan.
The predicted change in Japan’s seafood imports. Source: Ming Wang’s report
The increase in exports from community group three to community group two nations leads to a decrease in imports and exports between countries within community group two. For example, the study notes that Denmark, Norway and France are all experiencing a decrease in seafood exports and imports between each other.
While the rates of change in trade between countries look very close, the size of each country’s import and export market is different, so the actual trade volume can vary greatly.
The model also divided the global seafood market into two segments — the first being the Japanese market and the second comprising 25 other countries. It calculated that Japan’s seafood exports fell by 19 percent in 2021, or US$259 million.
Different impacts Public opinion after the Fukushima wastewater is discharged will have different impacts on the import and export trade of seafood for each country, especially for countries which trade with Japan.
What people think (about the discharge) is closely related to the amount of Japanese seafood imported by each country. The higher the amount of Japanese seafood imported by a particular country, the more negative public opinion is likely to be, according to computer modelling.
Japanese imports of seafood will also be reduced, predicts the computer model. However, the amount of reduction depends on how well the Japanese public accepts local seafood after the discharge of the nuclear wastewater.
The Japanese government has announced it will spend US$260 million to buy local seafood products if domestic sales are affected by the release of Fukushima wastewater.
If the Japanese public is more accepting of seafood caught in waters around the discharge area, seafood imports from other countries to Japan will likely fall. However, if public opinion does not go this way, Japan will have to import more seafood to meet local demand.
Reduced imports If 40 percent of the reduction in Japanese seafood exports is absorbed by its own market, the modelling shows this would result in a US$272 million reduction in Japanese seafood imports from other countries.
The table pictured above from the computer model shows the predicted decrease in the trade volume of seafood exports from 25 countries to Japan. The impact of seafood exported to Japan is also related to the community classification.
Countries in the same community as Japan show a more significant reduction in their seafood exports to Japan while countries not in the same community have less impact. The planned Fukushima nuclear wastewater disposal will mainly affect countries in the same seafood trading community as Japan.
These countries will see more significant reductions in their imports of Japanese seafood and in the exports of their seafood to Japan compared to countries in other communities.
Ming Wang isa doctoral candidate in econometrics, complex networks and multi-modal transportation at the School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, China. He declares no conflict of interest.Originally published under Creative Commons by 360infovia Wansolwara.
Several Pasifika were among dozens of New Zealanders to receive the Order of Merit this week.
Recipients comprised leading figures across various industries from social work to entertainment.
TV show producer, writer, and director Lisa Taouma received the insignia of a member of the NZ Order of Merit at a ceremony in Auckland.
Taouma said the award represented the efforts of many people.
“I’m really honoured that people from my community nominated me for this,” Taouma said.
“As Pacific people, we work collectively. This award has my name on it, but it’s an award that should be really for my whole amazing team of Pacific creatives.
“In my aiga of creative people who have put me here really, this is very much theirs’ as mine.”
Garnered controversy The Order of Merit was an honorific established in 1902 by Edward VII, and has garnered controversy as it was awarded to many British officers and statesmen involved with the colonial oppression of the British Empire.
But Taouma said the investure of so many Pasifika and Māori indicated a positive change.
Since the end of the British Empire, the honorific system has seen a revision — shifting from recognition of control to recognition of change.
“I was a bit conflicted in taking the award from the Empire and the King, because many Pacific people were victims of colonisation,” said Taouma.
“But I think that different people being involved in these investures is important because it shows how things are changing.”
Another Pasifika recipient, Ma’a Brian Sagala, said his recognition was the result of generations of duty towards helping one’s community and whanau (family).
“The reason I do what I do is to follow in the footsteps of my dad and mum, it’s something that has been modelled to me by all those who gave gone before me,” said Ma’a who works as a radio presenter and producer for the Pacific Media Network.
Ma’a Brian Sagala . . . “It’s something that has been modelled to me by all those who gave gone before me.” Image: Finau Fonua/RNZ Pacific
‘Hard to put into words’ “It’s actually hard to put it into words, but I’m very humbled by the recognition, and I’m just so very thankful. I love serving the Pasifika community, it’s the greatest honour and privilege.
“This medal shows the impact that Pasifika are having on New Zealand society.”
Many Māori have also been invested, such as George Flavell, kaumatua of Ngati Te Ata. The 77-year-old spent much of his life discovering and protecting traditional Māori sites such as pa fortresses.
His push for the protection of the sites resulted in land being reclaimed as part of the Waitangi Tribunal.
“It’s 30 years of hard work,” said Flavell.
“We worked hard to save our waahi tapu (sacred sites) and pa (traditional fortresses)…all of our land was confiscated, so it was about picking up what we could with the goodwill of the community.”
Flavell said changes in school curriculums to teach Māori history and language showed how far New Zealand society had come.
“Things were taught differently back then because there was no understanding of the past, but then all these claims came out and things began to change, people began to understand.
“We were at the bottom of the list of council policies (preserving sites), but now we’re on top.”
This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.
George Flavell . . . “All these claims came out and things began to change, people began to understand.” Image: Finau Fonua/RNZ Pacific
A West Papuan leader has accused Indonesia of imposing a “martial law” on the Melanesian region in response to the kidnapping of a New Zealand pilot by rebels fighting Jakarta’s contested rule.
“It is clear that Indonesia is using the kidnap of New Zealand pilot Philip Mehrtens as a pretext to strengthen their colonial hold on West Papua,” said United Liberation Movement for West Papua (ULMWP) interim president Benny Wenda.
Mehrtens was taken hostage on February 7 in the Papuan Highlands and has featured in video demands for independence.
“[Indonesian security forces] are creating and exploiting violence to further depopulate our villages and create easier access to our resources through corporate developments like the Trans Papua Highway.
“This is all part of a 60-year colonial land grab,” claimed Wenda in a statement.
He said that in Intan Jaya, Puncak Jaya, and Nduga, Indonesian soldiers were “roaming the countryside, conducting arbitrary house searches, beating Papuan civilians, and even murdering women and children”.
Papuan shot dead Wenda said that near Wamena, a Papuan named Stefanus Wilil was shot dead at random while crossing a road.
“Women and young girls have been raped, churches have been burnt by soldiers, and 16 villages in the Intan Jaya Regency have been abandoned by terrified inhabitants.
“My people are living in mortal fear of the next beating, the next murder, the next massacre.
“Everyone is a target: whether it is because they have a beard or Rasta culture, wearing dirty clothes, or carrying an axe or shovel to tend their gardens — every Papuan is under automatic suspicion.
“Hundreds have been forced to flee their homes by roving military bands acting with total impunity.”
Taking refuge Wenda said they were taking refuge in the forests, where they lacked food, water, and “basic medical facilities”.
“But even there they are not safe, with armed police occupying every corner of the Papuan countryside, transforming the land into a hunting ground for Indonesian troops.”
“Indonesia killed us with guns and bombs dropped from helicopters, but also with malnutrition and crop destruction.
“Even as a child I knew that my life was worthless to the colonial forces. The genocide and ethnic cleansing of West Papua is still neglected, as the massacre of 10 Papuans in Wamena in February proves.”
Up to 100,000 displaced According to UN figures, between 60,000 and 100,000 West Papuans have been displaced over the past four years.
Wenda said his movement’s peaceful demands to Indonesia were:
Allow aid agencies to treat victims of forced displacement;
Allow the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights into West Papua, as had been demanded by more than 84 countries;
Allow international journalists to report on the situation in West Papua;
Draw back Indonesian troops to allow civilians to return to their lives; and
Release all political prisoners — including 80 activists who had been arrested for handing out leaflets demanding political activist Victor Yeimo be freed, Victor Yeimo himself, and three students detained without charge last year.
Deputy Prime Minister John Rosso has described the late Sir Rabbie Namaliu as a “shining example” of what politicians and leaders of today should aspire to be.
Paying his tribute yesterday at the Vunapope Conference Centre, Kokopo, yesterday, Rosso said: “We should learn from people like Sir Rabbie, in terms of honesty, transparency, integrity, not only leaders but ordinary citizens as well.”
Rosso said Sir Rabbie, PNG’s fourth prime minister, had achieved a lot in his life, something others could only aspire to achieve.
The late Sir Rabbie Namaliu . . . Presold his autobiography but died before he could write it. Image: PNG Post-Courier/PNGPC Archives.
“He was a great statesman and a gentleman both in his private, professional and political life and has left a behind a great legacy.”
Rosso said that the death of Sir Rabbie was an unfortunate loss for the country as PNG has already lost some of its great leaders in Sir Michael Somare, Sir Mekere Morauta and others who had contributed to the nation.
He also acknowledged the late Sir Rabbie in his contributions towards the establishment of the University of Papua New Guinea (UPNG), saying Sir Rabbie had always had a heart for the people.
Sir Rabbie was one of the many leaders that shaped the country’s administration and policy from 1972 through to independence in 1975 until he took public office in 1982.
Rosso said he would remember him as a very humble man, who was respected in East New Britain and Papua New Guinea.
“Sir Rabbie was a humble and honest man, not just a senior statesman but a friend, colleague, father, brother and grandfather,” he said.
Rosso said that on behalf of his family, the Pangu Party and the people of Lae, he passed on his words of sympathy to the late statesman’s family and larger community of East New Britain.
He said Prime Minister James Marape and the government send their deepest condolence and sympathy as well to the immediate family of Sir Rabbie and the people of Raluana, East New Britain Province, saying it was indeed a sad day for PNG.
Diane Wilsonreports for the PNG Post-Courier. Republished with permission.
Keith Rankin, trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.
Essay by Keith Rankin.
Keith Rankin, trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.
I was intrigued to see this Daily Telegraph story – King Charles’ coronation: Australian man Simon Abney-Hastings could be rightful heir to British throne (published NZ Herald, 9 April) – about an Australian resident who could be said to be the rightful king of the United Kingdom and those Commonwealth countries for which that monarch is the constitutional head of state. The ‘mistake’ here happened in the 1470s, in the reign of King Edward IV. That was the same decade as the establishment in England of the Caxton Press.
Some context, for me, is that, on that very day – Easter Sunday, 9 April 2023 – I was watching the episode of Shakespeare’s histories (The Hollow Crown: Henry VI part 2) in which Edward IV became king. Further, the whole sequence of Shakespeare’s histories – from Richard II, through the Henrys, to Richard III – gives a critical insight into the evolution of the first modern nation state (namely Tudor England) and the wider context of that evolution. (Of course, it is also preferable to know a bit about the actual history, and not just Shakespeare’s late Tudor dramatic narrative. Useful counter-narratives – again, historical drama rather than actual history – are the Philippa Gregory televised dramas The White Queen and The White Princess, both recently available on Netflix and TVNZ+.)
Shakespeare’s history plays begin in the 14th century, in the decades after the Black Death in Europe from which the pre-existing feudal power structures could not survive as before (refer James Belich, The World the Plague Made 2022, and see RNZ James Belich: how the Black Death led to the rise of Europe); though the elites of the time could not have understood that. The monarchies of Europe represented a thin veneer of overlordship, in a world where most people had a local lord to serve, but were affected little by their lords’ lords.
France as we know it today was divided into three overlordships, the Kingdom of France, the eastern Duchy of Burgundy, and the western territories whose king was also the King of England. Richard II, the first king in the Shakespearian sequence, was born in Bordeaux (now France). And it was in the times of Richard II that an English public servant, Geoffrey Chaucer, led what might be called the ‘English-language-movement’ which formed one of the central pillars of late-Tudor English/Welsh nationalism. Indeed, Shakespeare’s histories were themselves a coherent nation-building narrative.
(The second main pillar of the emergent English nationalism was a fake Romano/British ‘history’ of England which for the most part omitted the Anglo-Saxons – the actual English – and instead traced the nation’s origins through a series of British kings (including Arthur, Lucius and Leir) back to ‘Brutus of Troy’, and, before that, to ‘Albion’, fourth son of Neptune. Refer Fake History [2021] by Otto English, Historia Regum Britanniae [1136] by Geoffrey of Monmouth, and The Stories of Albion and Brutus from Our Island Story [1905] by Henrietta Marshall. The third pillar was the printing press, established in England for over 100 years before Shakespeare started writing his histories; meaning that the dramatic stories of late-medieval English royalty – more or less true, and, as always, biased by the zeitgeists of their authors – were widely known.)
Usurper Kings of England
A central matter of contention in Tudor England was that of the ‘usurper kings’, of which Shakespeare had four to contend with: Henry IV, Edward IV, Richard III, and Henry Tudor [Henry VII]. The latter was Queen Elizabeth’s Welsh grandfather, and the aging Queen was a capricious presence during the time of the Tudor literary renaissance. Authors and publishers who displeased the Queen on personally sensitive matters were liable to – and sometimes did – have their right hands chopped off. (Refer The Elizabethans 2011, by A.N. Wilson.)
The underlying issue in the history of these kings was the rules of dynastic succession; rules which tended to be refined as situations arose. Definitely a good part of the issue was ‘patriarchy’, meaning the precedence of males over females. In England one rule was established through the Treaty of Winchester in 1153, which meant that succession could and should pass through a female line, even if that female herself would not be accepted as Queen regnant. The result then was the House of Plantagenet as (French-speaking) rulers of England and much of France. The Plantagenet line in England ended in 1485 with the accession of the House of Tudor.
In the Kingdom of France, the succession rule was less clear. In 1337, based on the English rule, King Edward III would also become the King of France. (Under the rule that applied, say, when Queen Victoria became Queen in 1837, Edward’s living mother – Isabella – would have been the Queen regnant of France and well as the Queen consort of England.) However, the French, had pulled a swifty, understandably, and adopted the Salic Law rule that monarchical succession could only take place through a fully male line. The result was that, in France, a new royal house was established in 1328, the House of Valois.
The outcome was that England was at war with France – on and off – for over 200 years. And the episode of 1415 (with its battles of Harfleur and Agincourt), in the reign of Henry V, became for English nationalism and national identity, what Gallipoli became for New Zealand nationalism exactly 500 years later. Henry V is the (slightly flawed) hero of Shakespeare’s narrative; things fall apart on account of the untimely death of this young king in 1422, just months before King Charles of France also died.
(There is a clear link between the 1994 animated movie The Lion King – suggested here – and Shakespeare’s histories; though in these adaptive stories historical chronology doesn’t matter. Simba the ‘Lion King’ is Henry V; and ‘Scar’, Simba’s uncle, is clearly Shakespeare’s Richard III.)
The years from 1337 to 1453 have been dubbed The Hundred Years War, and were all about Edward’s claim to the French throne; these claims did not actually subside until 1550, in Tudor times. The campaign of King Henry V to reclaim (on behalf of his great-grandfather Edward) that throne represented England’s last success in that war. France’s King Charles VI (‘the Mad’), following Agincourt, acquiesced by naming Henry as heir to the French crown, and ‘giving’ his daughter Catherine to Henry as his wife. In the end though, The Hundred Years War was an embarrassing defeat for England (as was Gallipoli for New Zealand), and this humiliation represented the backdrop to Shakespeare’s Henry VI part 1.
The Hundred Years War gave way in England to the War of the Roses. This war was again about dynastic succession. Edward III had five sons. Richard II represented the end of the first of those five male ‘lines’. He was deposed in somewhat murky circumstances by ‘Henry Bolingbroke’ who represented Edward III’s third ‘Lancastrian’ line. (We should also note that this third line had two branches, a ‘legitimate’ line and a later ‘legitimised’ Beaufort line through the mistress of Henry Bolingbroke’s father.)
The second male line of Edward III was the Clarence/’Mortimer’ line, and the fourth line was the ‘York’ line. Based on the English rule, the correct King of England in 1450 was Richard Plantagenet, Duke of York. This Richard was the unambiguous heir to Henry VI through Edward’s fourth line, and was ambiguously the rightful actual king (through a mix of male and female ancestors) on Edward’s second line. The situation was further confused by the eventual birth of Henry VI’s son (another Edward, called ‘Ned’ by Shakespeare) in 1453, a boy widely assumed to have actually been fathered by the Duke of Somerset, a divisive character on the Beaufort line. Henry VI came to an accommodation with Richard of York; Richard, rather than Henry’s son, would become Henry VI’s successor. The accommodation was not accepted by all, resulting in the War of the Roses, and the assassination of Richard of York. These events are graphically depicted early into Shakespeare’s Henry VI part 2.
The outcome was another battle, through which Richard Plantagenet’s oldest son Edward deposed Henry VI. The new king, largely undisputed in the 1460s, became Edward IV. There were rumours that Richard of York was not Edward’s true father; hence (according to the Telegraph story) the possibility that the ‘true’ king of England today is an Australian called Simon. But Edward was a good and well-regarded king; well-regarded, that is, except in the matter of his choice of wife, Elizabeth Woodville. (Hence the story of the White Queen.)
So rumours of Edward’s illegitimacy only surfaced after the marriage, spread by those who had other ideas about who should be Queen consort. A result was some changing allegiances and a resurgence of the Wars of the Roses. Henry VI was briefly restored to the throne in 1470. Following Edward’s re-restoration in 1471 – after the Battle of Tewksbury, where Henry VI’s teenage son Ned was killed – Henry VI was then assassinated much, in the manner that Richard II had been killed 70 years earlier. Shakespeare did not have to resort to fiction to write his dramatic regal potboilers.
We should note here that ‘illegitimacy’ was a substantial complicating factor in the rules of succession, and was an issue that could be manipulated by both monarchs and their foes. (Hence the well-known dramatic claims and counter-claims around the [Tudor] King Henry VIII and his daughters Mary and Elizabeth; claims that embroiled the sisters of Henry VIII as well as his daughters.)
The next usurper was Richard III, who Shakespeare had to present as the epitome of evil in order to make the next usurper look good. This Richard was the younger brother of Edward IV, played in The Hollow Crown dramatically by Benedict Cumberbatch. In the plays Henry VI and Richard III, Richard murdered Henry VI, his own older brother George (of Clarence) – both killed by Richard personally – and, by order, dispatched the two sons of Edward IV. We normally presume that Richard was next in line, and indeed he had already become King Richard III on the basis of Edward IV allegedly being a ‘bastard’. But Richard’s older brother George had two surviving children, a girl Margaret (Margaret Pole in the White Princess) and a boy Edward. This Edward (or Warwick) was thus the rightful king under both the English rule and the Salic Law, as the senior male descendent of Richard of York. Margaret’s many descendants (including Simon of Australia) had claims to be the rightful monarch based on the law of 1153, and this claim holds good regardless of whether Edward IV was legitimate or not.
The final battle of the Wars of the Roses was Bosworth, in 1485, whereby Henry Tudor defeated Richard III in battle, and thereby usurps the crown. Henry’s familial claim goes back to the ‘legitimised’ Lancastrian line (the Beaufort line) from Edward III’s mistress Katherine Swynford; and is contentious, depending on how legitimate the legitimisation of Henry’s ancestress really was. Henry Tudor was also a great-grandson of France’s King Charles ‘the Mad’, the rival of Henry V in 1415. (Henry V’s widow went on to marry Welshman, Owen Tudor.) To improve his prospects of his acceptance as King, Henry Tudor – Henry VII – married the eldest daughter of Edward IV (Elizabeth, the White Princess), though this may not have (as supposed) established legitimate Plantagenet descent, given the Telegraph story that Edward IV himself could not have been fathered by his father.
A footnote here is that, in the 1540s, King Henry VIII once again pursued the claim of the King of England (going back to 1337) to the throne of France. Game of thrones, indeed! Knowing that he was a great-great-grandson of Charles ‘the Mad’ will have bolstered Henry’s claim, at least in his mind. Henry VIII only averted bankrupting the English Crown by having previously looted the monasteries of the Catholic Church; actions that played a major role in initiating the Europe-wide religious ‘culture war’ of the sixteenth and seventeenth century. (And we note that Joe Biden is now in Ireland, commemorating the 1998 ‘Good Friday Agreement’ which can be understood to be the true end of that culture war.)
Monarchy in a Modern Context
In the post-feudal days of absolute monarchies, these dramas of Kings – monarchs with absolute power – had a much bigger impact on their subjects than in preceding medieval times. Nevertheless, monarchy – constitutional monarchy – has something to offer today. Tudor England was arguably the first ‘nation state’ in the modern sense of that nationalist concept. A proper nation state needs to be politically self-contained, and of ‘goldilocks’ size: not too big, not too small; neither an empire nor a principality.
The present view of a pure nation state is of a ‘republic’, with a president rather than a king. (Or ‘chairmen’, in the case of ‘Peoples Republics’.) The problem today is that democratic republics have highly politicised ‘heads of state’; they lack the symbol of the ‘crown’ to preside over a depoliticised public domain.
A form of democracy with a hereditary veneer which sits above the world of politics may actually be a winning formula. The late Queen Elizabeth II was much loved because she was a constant in our lives during times in which too much else seemed to change too much. It doesn’t matter so much who is monarch these days, but we do like our monarchs to be presentable to the point of being regal; we probably do not wish for a King Henry IX any time soon.
Yet we still like the idea of certainty as to who will be next monarch, and we do like there to be a genuine bloodline basis to that rule. Most of us will be grateful that the official rule now – at long last – treats females as equals to males. And matters of legitimacy can be sorted out by DNA testing, although somehow that seems too sordid for Kings and Queens.
One idea may be that monarchies should follow a matrilineal succession rule. Indeed, a matrilineal rule might have been a good idea in the past. Then – to forge political unions and to ensure relatively pure bloodlines – first cousin marriages were far too common.
In a matrilineal system, we will always know that the mother is indeed the mother. Actually, on the matter of legitimacy, we really would not worry, under a matrilineal system. (Jesus was reputedly not the natural-born son of his mother’s husband; not a problem.) If our Queens were more like Catherine the Great than Queen Anne – or like Richard of York’s wife Cecily, or Henry VI’s wife Margaret of Anjou, or Edward III’s mother Isabella of France – then the possibility of a greater diversity of paternal genes would strengthen the royal gene pool.
Regardless of the precise succession rules, I, and I sense many others, favour a democracy with a monarchical veneer than an overtly political republic such as United States or France; or than a quasi-democratic overly political republic such as Russia. (Or than a People’s Republic!)
Back to the Henry V and Shakespeare
Shakespeare would have been familiar with the writings of Niccolò Machiavelli. Machiavelli had a very particular take on the concept of being ‘cruel to be kind’. A ‘Prince’ had to be ‘credible’; and his credibility most likely had to be established by a bout of actual cruelty early in his career, or in the careers of recent ancestors.
Shakespeare applauded Henry V as a ‘good’ Machiavellian prince.
The most famous passage from Shakespeare’s play, from the Siege of Harfleur, follows. (Note that Shakespeare emphasises the symbolism of England’s not very English patron saint: St. George. This symbol – the unfurled banner of St George – is central to the particular and peculiar English/Welsh nationalist agenda of the late-Tudor literary establishment.)
Here is the famous, very martial, passage (imagine Kenneth Branagh in his classic role):
Henry V: Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;
Or close the wall up with our English dead.
In peace there’s nothing so becomes a man
As modest stillness and humility:
But when the blast of war blows in our ears,
Then imitate the action of the tiger;
Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favour’d rage;
Then lend the eye a terrible aspect;
Let pry through the portage of the head
Like the brass cannon; let the brow o’erwhelm it
As fearfully as doth a galled rock
O’erhang and jutty his confounded base,
Swill’d with the wild and wasteful ocean.
Now set the teeth and stretch the nostril wide,
Hold hard the breath and bend up every spirit
To his full height. On, on, you noblest English.
Whose blood is fet from fathers of war-proof!
Fathers that, like so many Alexanders,
Have in these parts from morn till even fought
And sheathed their swords for lack of argument:
Dishonour not your mothers; now attest
That those whom you call’d fathers did beget you.
Be copy now to men of grosser blood,
And teach them how to war. And you, good yeoman,
Whose limbs were made in England, show us here
The mettle of your pasture; let us swear
That you are worth your breeding; which I doubt not;
For there is none of you so mean and base,
That hath not noble lustre in your eyes.
I see you stand like greyhounds in the slips,
Straining upon the start. The game’s afoot:
Follow your spirit, and upon this charge
Cry ‘God for Harry, England, and Saint George!’
And here’s the less-quoted passage soon after (addressing the Governor of Harfleur, relating to the fate of the civilians of Harfleur), following the military success of Henry’s siege (and noting that this passage is used to establish what can charitably be called Machiavellian mercy):
Henry V: How yet resolves the governor of the town?
This is the latest parle we will admit;
Therefore to our best mercy give yourselves;
Or like to men proud of destruction
Defy us to our worst: for, as I am a soldier,
A name that in my thoughts becomes me best,
If I begin the battery once again,
I will not leave the half-achieved Harfleur
Till in her ashes she lie buried.
The gates of mercy shall be all shut up,
And the flesh’d soldier, rough and hard of heart,
In liberty of bloody hand shall range
With conscience wide as hell, mowing like grass
Your fresh-fair virgins and your flowering infants.
What is it then to me, if impious war,
Array’d in flames like to the prince of fiends,
Do, with his smirch’d complexion, all fell feats
Enlink’d to waste and desolation?
What is’t to me, when you yourselves are cause,
If your pure maidens fall into the hand
Of hot and forcing violation?
What rein can hold licentious wickedness
When down the hill he holds his fierce career?
We may as bootless spend our vain command
Upon the enraged soldiers in their spoil
As send precepts to the leviathan
To come ashore. Therefore, you men of Harfleur,
Take pity of your town and of your people,
Whiles yet my soldiers are in my command;
Whiles yet the cool and temperate wind of grace
O’erblows the filthy and contagious clouds
Of heady murder, spoil and villany.
If not, why, in a moment look to see
The blind and bloody soldier with foul hand
Defile the locks of your shrill-shrieking daughters;
Your fathers taken by the silver beards,
And their most reverend heads dash’d to the walls,
Your naked infants spitted upon pikes,
Whiles the mad mothers with their howls confused
Do break the clouds, as did the wives of Jewry
At Herod’s bloody-hunting slaughtermen.
What say you? will you yield, and this avoid,
Or, guilty in defence, be thus destroy’d?
Governor of Harfleur: Our expectation hath this day an end:
The Dauphin, whom of succors we entreated,
Returns us that his powers are yet not ready
To raise so great a siege. Therefore, great king,
We yield our town and lives to thy soft mercy.
Enter our gates; dispose of us and ours;
For we no longer are defensible.
Henry V: Open your gates. Come, uncle Exeter,
Go you and enter Harfleur; there remain,
And fortify it strongly ‘gainst the French:
Use mercy to them all. For us, dear uncle,
The winter coming on and sickness growing
Upon our soldiers, we will retire to Calais.
To-night in Harfleur we will be your guest;
To-morrow for the march are we addrest.
Now, cast Volodymir Zelenskyy (in February 2022) as the Governor of Harfleur; though making precisely the opposite response, in part because the threat he faced seemed less credible. What would Shakespeare make of the present Siege of Ukraine?
Afterword – ‘Credibility’ in Policymaking today
I kid you not, this same Machiavellian ideal of ‘credibility’ is central to the modern practice of central banking, in particular with respect to ‘anti-inflationary’ monetary policy. This idea is, literally, textbook monetary economics. (Believe me, I’ve taught from that textbook!)
In this role, the Governor of the Reserve Bank takes the role of Henry V. And the citizens of New Zealand (or wherever) are the citizens of Harfleur. Surrender takes place when the citizens acquiesce to Henry’s threat, meaning that they – in their heads – truly believe that inflation is beaten. (An analogous analogy is that of St George; bank governor Adrian Orr takes the role of George, and inflation – or strictly, ‘inflationary expectations‘ – is the dragon. The dragon is truly dead when the people believe it to be dead.)
(The irony in the present inflationary episode is that New Zealand and other countries had a decade of very low interest rates, very low inflation, and low inflationary expectations. The monetary-policy hawks were deeply frustrated that easy money was not translating into inflation. When the Covid19 supply-chain issues, the great resignation, and the Ukraine War all happened at once, there were rising prices but no inflationary expectations. Expectations were that when the ‘perfect storm’ was over, prices would once again behave as we had become used to them behaving. A ‘cost-of-living spike’ is not the same thing as inflation. It was the Reserve Banks themselves, by talking up inflation, who stoked the very expectations that they are now trying to slay.)
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Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.
Tropical cyclone Ilsa has been downgraded to a category-three cyclone as it moves southeast through Western Australia. The storm first made landfall as a category-five cyclone, passing near Port Hedland around midnight.
Ilsa smashed into the largely uninhabited Pilbara region (the country’s most cyclone-prone region) at record-breaking speeds. It has delivered Australia’s highest ten-minute sustained wind speed record at landfall: about 218 kilometres per hour. The previous record of 194km per hour came from tropical cyclone George in 2007.
So, does this new speed make Ilsa a particularly menacing disaster? The science of reporting on cyclone wind speeds is highly complex – and it can be easy to misconstrue the figures without some context.
Record-breaking sustained wind speeds
As Ilsa continues to move inland, it looks likely the storm will be further downgraded before it passes into the Northern Territory – and potentially over Alice Springs – later today and tomorrow.
Ilsa made landfall about 100km north of Port Hedland, which hosts the world’s largest export site for iron ore. But a red alert prompted most vessels to be moved farther west in advance, so it only caused minor destruction.
This Bureau of Meteorology satellite image shows Ilsa at 10:30am AEST, on Thursday. BoM
Analysis by James Knight at Aon’s Reinsurance Solutions expects in general it will cause only minor damage due to the remoteness of where it has hit.
Apart from the ten-minute sustained record mentioned above, Ilsa had a one-minute sustained record of 240km per hour, and a three-second sustained record of 295km per hour.
It’s usually the latter, more intense gusts, that cause the most damage in tropical cyclone events. When it comes to making potential damage assessment for insurance purposes, firms will often model damage associated with a three-second sustained wind speed.
But there are several challenges that come with recording and making predictions about cyclone wind speeds.
The Bureau of Meteorology maintains a national wind recording database, which uses instruments called anemometers. These measure wind speeds at locations across the country, and are often placed in flat areas, such as near airports.
Their specific placement is very important, because wind can change form as it moves over and through certain types of terrain.
Generally, when we report wind speed we’re referring to atmospheric wind gust, or wind speeds at least ten metres off the ground, which we also call “open terrain” wind speed.
However, wind passing closer to the ground, where the topography varies, will often be higher than winds passing directly above. Wind will speed up, for instance, if it’s squeezed between two hills.
We know from post-cyclone damage surveys that wind speeds can vary significantly from one side of a hill to another. So aspect and slope are very important.
As far as disaster modelling goes, this is no small issue as it can skew recordings. It’s quite possible there would have been wind gusts from Ilsa that exceeded what has been reported so far.
Australia lacks a sufficiently dense network of anemometers set up for long-term testing. If we want to gain insight into the frequency and intensity of extreme cyclone wind speeds over time, we’ll need a national quality-controlled network that has better spatial coverage.
The equipment we have, although it’s designed to withstand extreme conditions, can get knocked around and thrown offline – introducing data gaps in the time series.
Accurate and consistent data points are crucial if we want to record and predict the kinds of extreme winds we might experience during future tropical cyclones. And while the efforts of independent storm chasers and university groups do go some way, taking measurements from different sources can introduce a lot of uncertainty in the overall process.
Cyclone intensity will increase
Since 1975, there have been 48 category-five tropical cyclones to hit Australia – an average of about one per year. Shile Ilsa sets a new record for the strongest sustained wind gust at landfall, category-five tropical cyclones have been occurring with some regularity overall.
It’s worth mentioning Ilsa formed pretty late in the cyclone season. Although the Bureau of Meteorology says cyclones can form any time of the year, its very rare for this to happen outside of April.
Historical trends and climate change projections suggest the number of landfalling cyclones in our region will decrease over time. This has been consistent with real-world data, and puts Australia at odds with other regions of the world, where cyclone frequency is increasing.
However, most climate models also predict a greater proportion of these cyclones will be of a higher strength. The current scientific consensus is we’ll experience these events less often, but when we do, they will be more intense.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s hope for a bipartisan approach on the Voice to parliament referendum has crumbled.
Late last year, the National party declared it would oppose the proposed model, while the Liberal party did the same earlier this month.
Nationals Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price said the current Voice model “lacks detail”, “divides us along the lines of race”, and that it’s “a way to push people into feeling guilt for our nation’s history”.
And Opposition Leader Peter Dutton said “it is divisive and won’t deliver the outcomes to people on the ground”.
If these words sound familiar, that’s because in the late 1980s, the Coalition used the same arguments to oppose the creation of another First Nations advisory body, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Commission (ATSIC).
Indeed, the Coalition has a long-held opposition to an empowered Indigenous advisory body, and Dutton is parroting a well-rehearsed Coalition songbook.
The Coalition’s battle against ATSIC
Over the past 40 years, cooperation between the major parties on Indigenous affairs has been a complicated matter.
Even the ostensibly bipartisan approach to the 1967 referendum – which succeeded in altering the constitution to enable the Commonwealth to make laws for Indigenous people – concealed partisan differences.
Gough Whitlam’s policy of self-determination became self-management under the Coalition in the late 1970s. Bipartisanship deteriorated further in the late 1980s after the Aboriginal affairs minister in the Hawke Labor government, Gerry Hand, announced the need to recognise and legislate Aboriginal self-determination.
Hand’s Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Commission (ATSIC) Bill would establish a national commission and regional councils across the country to monitor programs, develop policy and advise the minister. This was styled as a revolution in Aboriginal affairs.
In the 40 hours of parliamentary debates over the bill, clear ideological lines were drawn.
Hand said it was about giving Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people access to all levels of government to ensure the right decisions were made about their lives. It was about a new partnership and an attempt to right the wrongs of history.
Opposing it, the Coalition argued it would divide the nation rather than unite it, that it constituted a “black parliament”, that it was a racial law, and that it would not overcome Indigenous disadvantage.
The Liberals and Nationals rejected what they called the “symbolism, separatism and perpetual guilt” of the appeal to history.
But it was Hand’s suggested preamble that worried the Coalition most. It acknowledged the distinct status of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people as prior occupants and original owners of the land. It aimed to provide them with:
full recognition and status within the Australian nation to which history, their prior ownership and occupation of the land, and their rich and diverse culture, fully entitle them to aspire.
The parliamentary debates reveal the Coalition’s visceral rejection of the preamble, which it called a “gross irresponsibility”.
In 1989, then MP John Howard declared the establishment of ATSIC an act of “sheer national idiocy”. Shadow Minister for Aboriginal Affairs Christopher Miles declared his party’s intention to abolish ATSIC if it proceeded as Hand had envisaged.
When the ATSIC bill finally passed, it was stripped of the preamble, and self-determination had been removed from its wording.
What’s happened since ATSIC?
As it turns out, the abolition of ATSIC became a bipartisan affair. In 2004, Prime Minister Howard declared the ATSIC Act would be repealed, after Labor leader Mark Latham announced his decision to do the same if elected to office. Latham suggested a reconstituted body, but Howard declared no intention of replacing it.
While there has been some cooperation on Indigenous policy since, bipartisanship around an advisory body has been a slippery proposition.
Disagreements emerged in 2017 when Labor backed the Referendum Council’s recommendation of a constitutionally enshrined Voice to parliament. Then Liberal leader, Malcolm Turnbull, rejected it.
Bipartisanship cropped up again when Liberal and Labor leaders agreed in 2018 to a restart on the referendum through a parliamentary committee, to find common ground on Indigenous recognition.
Given this history, it’s not surprising two of the main sticking points for the Coalition around the Voice proposal are that it will be permanent, and that it will have a voice to parliament and the executive (the cabinet and government departments).
The last time an Indigenous body advised the executive was when the Keating government sought to legislate native title following the Mabo decision. ATSIC mobilised a large group of Indigenous organisations to present their case to Keating’s Mabo Ministerial Committee.
Then, in a series of intense negotiations with Keating following his draft native title bill in 1993, they salvaged some rights in the face of their near extinguishment.
The resulting Native Title Act was declared by the then Liberal leader, John Hewson, as a “millstone around our country’s prosperity” and a recipe for division.
This week, Howard resurfaced to defend Dutton’s position on the Voice referendum, declaring Dutton had not betrayed the Liberal party.
Howard was speaking a truth – the Coalition’s position on the Voice is entirely consistent with their partisanship in this area of Aboriginal policy since the 1980s.
Everything they now argue to support their “no” vote to the Voice they have long maintained.
Alison Holland receives funding from the Australian Research Council (DP230100714 – Policy for Self-Determination: the Case Study of ATSIC) with Distinguished Professor Larissa Behrendt, Associate Professor Daryl Rigney, Dr Kirsten Thorpe and Lindon Coombes.
Sydney-based startup MilkRun made a big splash with its promise to deliver groceries within ten minutes, raising more than A$85 million from some of the biggest names in Australian venture capital, including Atlassian billionare Mike Cannon-Brookes.
MilkRun’s co-founder and chief executive Dany Milham had already found success with fast-delivering mattress company Koala. Less than a year ago he was confidently predicting MilkRun would be bigger than Coles or Woolworths within ten years.
Today the company is finished, with more than 400 staff made redundant.
It has joined a lengthening list of platform delivery companies that have done their dash in the Australian market. This include three other local startups promising 10-minute deliveries – Send in May 2022, Voly in November 2022, and CoLab which went into voluntary administration last week. British-owned Deliveroo shut down its Australian operations in November 2022, while German-owned Foodora exited in 2018.
In an email to staff, Milham attributed MilkRun’s end to the slowing economy:
Economic and capital market conditions have continued to deteriorate, and while the business has continued to perform well, we feel strongly that this is the right decision in the current environment.
Certainly the effect of things like inflation increasing operating costs (including debt) as well as curbing discretionary spending can’t have helped.
But even in the best of conditions, MilkRun faced an uphill climb.
Could Milkrun ever make money?
Milkrun was, obviously, not profitable. This was not a problem per se. Many startups lose money for years before becoming immensely profitable. For example, Amazon, founded in 1994, didn’t have its first profitable year until 2003.
Some startups require significant scale to be profitable. Others forego profit to grow market share. Presumably the big name-venture capital firms that poured money into MilkRun – Cannon-Brookes’ private investment company Grok Ventures, Airtree Ventures (which invested in Canva), and New York-based Tiger Global Management – saw such potential.
But what was that potential, exactly? How could MilkRun ever scale to become profitable? Was there really a big enough market for super-quick grocery delivery? Or were they swept along by the mania for delivery ventures that came with the pandemic, lockdowns and the surge in online ordering in 2020 and 2021?
A food delivery rider in Sydney, October 2021. Mark Baker/AP
MilkRun commenced during the pandemic – the perfect time for “last mile” deliveries. But by mid-last year, with lockdowns of thing of the past, the numbers didn’t look great.
It was still losing at least $10 on each delivery. Though that was much better than the $40 loss it had initially been making, Milham’s plan to soon become profitable would involve, in June 2022, dropping MilkRun’s 10-minute delivery pledge – undermining its key branding point.
Costs would have gone up anyway
Even without the unexpected economic hit of inflation over the past year, MilkRun faced escalating costs.
To grow market share, it would have to expand out from the high-density, affluent inner-city areas. Operating in more suburban areas, with longer distances and more dispersed customers, would compound “last mile” delivery costs.
Any hint of profitability would also inevitably arouse competition from the major supermarkets, whose thousands of suburban stores and supply chains positioned them to compete in the express delivery market any time they chose.
The cost of MilkRun’s “dark store” distribution network, set up when rents were suppressed by closed borders, were also likely to increase.
Narrow path to profitability
Perhaps MilkRun’s goal was to grow market share until drone delivery became viable or other business lines (such as alcohol delivery) and profit opportunities arose. But, on present unit economics, even in ideal conditions, this was a tall ask in a post-pandemic world.
Arguably the writing has been on the wall for about year, with MilkRun reportedly unable to persuade any investors to sink more money into the company.
Venture capitalists know many of the startups they fund will fail. They will back an idea early on, when a path to profitability is unclear. But they will not keep pumping in more money if a path does not materialise.
It is easy to be a “Monday expert”, decrying decisions from a position of perfect hindsight. But MilkRun always had a challenging business model, something ever more apparent as the world emerged from lockdowns, demand subsided, cost of living pressures increased and business costs rose.
Mark Humphery-Jenner is on the Investment Committee of Sydney Angels. He does not have any direct financial interest with any companies mentioned in this article.
Most communities along the northwest coast of Western Australia appear to have dodged a bullet after Cyclone Ilsa made landfall overnight. While some structures, such as the Pardoo Roadhouse, were damaged, the destruction was less than we feared.
But unfortunately, there will be a next time. Climate change is predicted to bring increasingly severe and frequent weather events and disasters.
As those in recently flooded regions of New South Wales and Queensland know, it takes a long time to rebuild and recover from disasters. And alarmingly, our resilience is being undermined by the housing crisis, underinsurance and inadequate planning.
The problems can conspire to worsen inequality. It means vulnerable populations are hit hardest when disaster strikes.
The cost of housing is driving many people into financial stress. With little if any money to spare, many Australians are likely not to have insurance. This leaves them extra vulnerable should disaster hit.
Renters are among those least likely to have insurance. This means they may struggle to pay for alternative accommodation if their home is affected by a disaster.
Research I’ve co-authored has revealed tragic story after tragic story of people realising too late they were not insured, or their level of insurance was too low to cover the cost of rebuilding their lives after disaster.
A national housing shortage means options can be limited for both renters and homeowners looking for alternative accommodation after their homes are damaged in a disaster.
Increasing housing supply may address some of these issues. However, inadequate planning can lead to housing developments in disaster-prone areas such as floodplains. It can also lead to environmental degradation that can increase exposure of homes and communities to disasters.
For example, coastal ecosystems such as the mangroves of northern Australia can reduce the impact of storms. They slow the speed and size of waves and stabilise soil and sediments and can offer some protection to nearby settlements.
But development for housing or infrastructure near coastal regions can put these ecosystems at risk.
Insurance for such homes and communities may become unaffordable or unattainable as disasters worsen.
Add in the tyranny of distance faced by people living in remote and rural Australia, and we see increasing numbers of people and communities at risk from the social and financial impacts of disasters in the era of climate change.
Failing to address this mix can worsen inequality
If left unaddressed, our current housing crisis coupled with climate change could see more and more people living in the kinds of shanty towns and tent cities seen around the time of the Great Depression.
We risk turning back the clock on gains made in improving urban liveability. This will further stretch the embattled social service sector and the capacity of governments to ensure community resilience.
A key aspect of resilience is lowering the gap between rich and poor, recognising that people and communities recover better if they can work together.
So any action we take needs to be focused on social equity and involve coordination across the three tiers of government.
Planning needs to respond to the relationship between disasters, housing, and insurance.
This includes a systematic and equitable effort to relocate communities out of high-risk areas. It means protecting ecosystems that in turn help to protect communities.
It also means ensuring new housing is safe, affordable, insurable and located in safe places, designed to withstand local risks.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Kemish, Adjunct Professor, School of Historical and Philosophical Inquiry, The University of Queensland
Humberto Portillo
Australians are jetting back out into the world again. The numbers are still below pre-pandemic levels, but almost 1.1 million Australians left the country in December last year – compared to 1.3 million in December 2019. According to information provided by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, passport applications smashed records in 2022, averaging more than 250,000 each month in the second half of the year.
International travel is a safe, positive experience for most people, but unfortunately things do go wrong for some travellers. Trouble, when it comes, can involve anything from lost passports and small-scale theft to serious welfare problems, hospitalisation and arrests.
In these cases, DFAT’s consular service will be expected to do what it can to assist. But where does personal responsibility begin and end when we leave our shores? What should we expect from our government, and what can we do ourselves to minimise the risks?
Travellers behaving badly
As a former head of the consular service in the early 2000s, I know the caseload involving overseas Australians is not limited to major, news-grabbing situations, like the recent kidnapping of an Australia-based academic by a criminal gang in Papua New Guinea, or the impact of the devastating earthquake in Turkey and Syria on Australians and their families.
These were serious situations requiring intensive work from our diplomats, but there is much more to the job than that.
From June 2021-22, an average of four Australians died overseas every day, while an average of two Australians were arrested every day – on matters ranging from immigration breaches to drugs crime, theft and fraud.
In total, nearly 16,000 Australians turned to their local Australian overseas mission that year for help in “crisis cases” – more than triple the number in 2018-19 before the pandemic. COVID-related repatriations arranged by DFAT were counted separately – there were more than 62,000 of these in the past three years.
Carrying an Australian passport means we can rely on a consular service to provide support in these situations. But expectations have grown among travellers in recent decades, partly because of the speed of our communications and the instant public feedback we receive via social media.
While most Australians are self-reliant travellers, there are still many not living up to their side of the bargain. Most importantly, there are still too many not taking out appropriate travel insurance. Others disregard official travel warnings and then turn to the government for help when things go wrong.
Then there are those whose expectations are just inappropriate – asking officials to arrange opera tickets or look after their pets, for example.
More seriously, expectations can be very hard to manage in arrest cases overseas. Some Australians are shocked their citizenship doesn’t come with a “get out of jail free card”. But we are all subject to local laws and authority, no matter what notions we might have about the standards of justice that apply in some countries.
The service will check periodically on the welfare of prisoners overseas, guide them towards local legal representation and monitor their trials. But that’s about it. This applies to foreigners imprisoned in Australia, too.
To be sure, there is occasionally a case that is clearly so arbitrary or unjust, our government calls for the release of the individual. This was the case for Sean Turnell, who was imprisoned in Myanmar for political reasons until being released last year. But unlike Turnell, most Australian prisoners overseas probably have a case to answer.
Three ways to stay safe
1) Be informed about where you are going
Australians have a responsibility to know what’s happening at their planned destinations. The conflicts in Ukraine and elsewhere have impacted many travellers, as have major weather events and natural disasters.
With international flights returning to normality over the last year, DFAT’s COVID repatriation program has largely wound up. Travellers once again need to look to their own resources – or their travel insurance policies – to ensure they get home.
The government’s Smartraveller website is a reliable source of up-to-date information on everything from emerging health risks to cultural and legal issues in specific countries to the local security situation. They have recently launched a fresh advertising campaign in an effort to highlight the importance of avoiding trouble in the first place.
2) Stay in touch with family back home
The consular service deals with hundreds of “whereabouts” inquiries each year. And if disaster strikes when you are travelling somewhere, your family and friends will be worried.
In each of the major consular disaster responses I was involved in, including the September 11 attacks and the 2002 Bali bombings, there were people who caused their loved ones untold grief by not letting them know they were safe.
In my recent book, The Consul, I recount the story of one Australian who worked on an upper floor of the World Trade Center in New York, but took ten days to let his family know he had actually been in London when the attacks took place.
If there’s one thing travellers really should do, it’s to take out travel insurance. Most people think about insurance as a way of covering themselves for flight cancellations or for the theft of personal items. But if you get sick or are injured overseas – or even in the case of a death – insurance is critical. The Australian government cannot just step in and pay for a medical evacuation.
From my time as consular chief, I know that some Australians were forced to sell their homes to cover their medical costs overseas. People also often find themselves under-insured, or are surprised to learn that certain activities, such as adventure sports, are not covered.
Young people are the least likely to take out insurance. Travel industry surveys indicate about 12% of travellers below the age of 30 do not intend to take out insurance, and the number is higher for those heading to destinations in the developed world regarded as “safe”. It really doesn’t work like that though – hospitalisation in the United States without insurance can mean financial disaster.
It doesn’t take much to minimise the risk of difficulties turning into disasters overseas.
Ian Kemish is a former senior Australian diplomat who served as head of the Australian consular service from 2000 to 2004. His book The Consul was published by UQP in 2022.
New Zealand Parliament Buildings, Wellington, New Zealand.
New Zealand Politics Daily is a collation of the most prominent issues being discussed in New Zealand. It is edited by Dr Bryce Edwards of The Democracy Project.
Finding life on other planets might well be the holy grail of astronomy, but the hunt for suitable host planets that can sustain life is a resource-intensive task.
The search for exoplanets (planets outside our Solar System) involves competing for time on Earth’s biggest telescopes – yet the hit rate of this search can be disappointingly low.
In a new study published today in Science, I and my international team of colleagues have combined different search techniques to discover a new giant planet. It could change the way we try to image planets in the future.
Imaging planets is no small feat
To satisfy our curiosity about our place in the universe, astronomers have developed many techniques to search for planets orbiting other stars. Perhaps the simplest of these is called direct imaging. But it’s not easy.
Direct imaging involves attaching a powerful camera to a large telescope and trying to detect light emitted, or reflected, from a planet. Stars are bright, and planets are dim, so it’s akin to searching for fireflies dancing around a spotlight.
It’s no surprise only about 20 planets have been found with this technique to date.
Yet direct imaging is of great value. It helps shed light on a planet’s atmospheric properties, such as its temperature and composition, in a way other detection techniques can’t.
HIP99770b: a new gas giant
Our direct imaging of a new planet, named HIP99770b, reveals a hot, giant and moderately cloudy planet. It orbits its star at a distance that falls somewhere between the orbital distances of Saturn and Uranus around our Sun.
The HIP99770 star is almost 14 times brighter than the Sun. But since its planet has an orbit larger than Saturn’s, the planet receives a similar amount of energy as Jupiter does from the Sun. Author provided
With about 15 times the mass of Jupiter, HIP99770b is a real giant. However, it’s also more than 1,000℃, so it’s not a good prospect for a habitable world.
What the HIP99770 system does offer is an analogy to our own Solar System. It has a cold “debris disk” of ice and rock far out from the star, akin to a scaled-up version of the Kuiper Belt in our Solar System.
The main difference is that the HIP99770 system is dominated by one high-mass planet, rather than several smaller ones.
Images of the HIP99770 system, taken with exoplanet imager SCExAO (Subaru Coronagraphic Extreme Adaptive Optics Project) coupled with data from the CHARIS instrument (Coronagraphic High-Resolution Imager and Spectrograph). Author provided
Searching with the light on
We reached our findings by first detecting hints of a planet via indirect detection methods. We noticed the star was wobbling in space, which hinted at the presence of a planet in the vicinity with a large gravitational pull.
This motivated our direct imaging efforts; we were no longer searching in the dark.
The extra data came from the European Space Agency’s Gaia spacecraft, which has been measuring the positions of nearly one billion stars since 2014. Gaia is sensitive enough to detect tiny variations of a star’s motion through space, such as those caused by planets.
We also supplemented these data with measurements from Gaia’s predecessor, Hipparcos. In total, we had 25 years’ worth of “astrometric” (positional) data to work with.
Previously, researchers have used indirect methods to guide imaging that has discovered companion stars, but not planets.
It’s not their fault: massive stars such as HIP99770 – which is almost twice the mass of our Sun – are reluctant to give up their secrets. Otherwise-successful search techniques can rarely reach the levels of precision required to detect planets around such massive stars.
Our detection, which used both direct imaging and astrometry, demonstrates a more efficient way to search for planets. It’s the first time the direct detection of an exoplanet has been guided through initial indirect detection methods.
Gaia is expected to continue observing until at least 2025, and its archive will remain useful for decades to come.
Mysteries remain
Astrometry of HIP99770 suggests it belongs to the Argus association of stars – a group of stars that moves together through space. This would suggest the system is rather young, about 40 million years old. That would make it roughly one-hundredth of the age of our Solar System.
However, our analysis of the star’s pulsations, as well as models of the planet’s brightness, suggest an older age of between 120 million and 200 million years. If this is the case, HIP99770 might just be an interloper in the Argus group.
Now that it’s known to host a planet, astronomers will aim to further unravel the mysteries of HIP99770 and its immediate environment.
Simon Murphy receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He contributed to this research whilst at the University of Sydney, as well as at the University of Southern Queensland, where he now works as an ARC Future Fellow.