Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chris Turney, Professor, Earth Science and Climate Change, UNSW

Geological and archaeological records offer important insights into what seems to be an increasingly uncertain future.

The better we understand what conditions Earth has already experienced, the better we can predict (and potentially prevent) future threats.

But to do this effectively, we need an accurate way to date what happened in the past.

Our research, published today in the journal Radiocarbon, offers a way to do just that, through an updated method of calibrating the radiocarbon timescale.

An amazing tool for perusing the past

Radiocarbon dating has revolutionised our understanding of the past. It is nearly 80 years since Nobel Prize-winning US chemist Willard Libby first suggested minute amounts of a radioactive form of carbon are created in the upper atmosphere.

Libby correctly argued this newly formed radiocarbon (or C-14) rapidly converts to carbon dioxide, is taken up by plants during photosynthesis, and from there travels up through the food chain.

When organisms interact with their environment while alive, they have the same proportion of C-14 as their environment. Once they die they stop taking in new carbon.

Their level of C-14 then halves every 5,730 years due to radioactive decay. An organism that died yesterday will still have a high level of C-14, whereas one that died tens of thousands of years ago will not.

By measuring the level of C-14 in a specimen, we can deduce how long ago that organism died. Currently, with this method, we can date remains up to 60,000 years old.

Read more: Explainer: what is radiocarbon dating and how does it work?

A seven-year effort

If the level of C-14 in the atmosphere had always been constant, radiocarbon dating would be straightforward. But it hasn’t.

Changes in the carbon cycle, impinging cosmic radiation, the use of fossil fuels and 20th century nuclear testing have all caused large variations over time. Thus, all radiocarbon dates need to be adjusted (or calibrated) to be turned into accurate calendar ages.

Without this adjustment, dates could be out by up to 10-15%. This week we report a seven-year international effort to recalculate three radiocarbon calibration curves:

• IntCal20 (“20” to signify this year) for objects from the northern hemisphere
• SHCal20 for samples from the ocean-dominated southern hemisphere
• Marine20 for samples from the world’s oceans.

We constructed these updated curves by measuring a plethora of materials that record past radiocarbon levels, but which can also be dated by other methods.

Included in the archives are tree rings from ancient logs preserved in wetlands, cave stalagmites, corals from the continental shelf and sediments drilled from lake and ocean beds.

In total, the new curves are based on almost 15,000 radiocarbon measurements taken from objects up to 60,000 years old.

Advances in radiocarbon measurement using accelerator mass spectrometry mean the updated curves can use very small samples, such as single tree rings from just one year’s growth.

Reassessing old beliefs

The new radiocarbon calibration curves provide previously impossible precision and detail. As a result, they greatly improve our understanding of how Earth has evolved and how these changes impacted its inhabitants.

One example is the rate of environmental change at the end of the most recent ice age. As the world started to warm some 18,000 years ago, vast ice sheets covering Antarctica, North America (including Greenland) and Europe melted – returning huge volumes of fresh water to the oceans.

But the sea level didn’t rise at a consistent rate like the global temperature. Sometimes it was gradual and other times extremely rapid.

A prime location to detect past sea levels is the Sunda Shelf, a large platform of land that was once part of continental Southeast Asia.

One study published in 2000 showed mangrove plant remains found on the seabed recorded a catastrophic 16-metre sea level rise over several hundred years (about half a metre each decade). This event, known as Meltwater Pulse-1A, flooded the Sunda Shelf.

Our latest work has modified this story considerably. The new calibration curves reveal this extreme phase of sea level rise actually began 14,640 years ago and lasted just 160 years.

This equates to a staggering one-metre rise each decade – a sobering lesson for the future, considering the current much lower projected changes for the end of this century.

An extra half a millennium of art

Going further back in time, we also looked at some of the world’s oldest cave art in France’s Chauvet Cave, first discovered in 1994.

This cave contains hundreds of beautifully preserved paintings. They depict a European menagerie with long-extinct mammoths, cave lions and woolly rhinoceroses, captured in real-life scenes that provide a window into a lost world.

The Chauvet Cave reveals the artistic sophistication of our early ancestors in phenomenal detail.

With the new IntCal20 curve, our best estimate for the creation of the oldest radiocarbon-dated painting in the cave is now 36,500 years ago. This is almost 450 years older than previously thought.

These are just two of many more examples of the far-reaching impact our latest work will have.

As the new calibration curves are used to re-analyse ages of a host of archaeological and geological records, we can expect major shifts in our understanding of the planet’s past – and hopefully, a better forecast into its future.

Read more: Is that rock hashtag really the first evidence of Neanderthal art?

– ref. From cave art to climate chaos: how a new carbon dating timeline is changing our view of history – https://theconversation.com/from-cave-art-to-climate-chaos-how-a-new-carbon-dating-timeline-is-changing-our-view-of-history-143620

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Lindsey, Malcolm Smith Professor of Asian Law and Director of the Centre for Indonesian Law, Islam and Society, University of Melbourne

Indonesia is still struggling to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. Its fatalities are the worst in Southeast Asia, but so far the most dire predictions have not come true.

And yet, the government appears even less focused on controlling the disease and more on reopening the country for business, including allowing tourists back to Bali. (There’s now talk of a travel bubble including Australia.) The government is clearly concerned the struggling economy could lead to more criticism of its handling of the crisis – and perhaps social unrest.

As of this week, Indonesia officially has more than 128,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with nearly 40,000 people undergoing treatment and more than 80,000 recovered. There are another 86,000 suspected cases.

So far, more than 5,800 people have died, 4.5% of confirmed cases. Cases have been rising by about 1,700 per day in August.

But these figures understate the real impact of the pandemic. Indonesia does not count probable cases in its deaths, even though the World Health Organisation recommends it. One civil society group that monitors the pandemic says there may have been more been more than 15,000 coronavirus-related deaths.

And a model developed in Singapore predicts 200,000 cases by the end of September.

Testing has improved, but rates are still too low

In fact, no one really knows how bad the situation is. But it is certain to be much worse than the official figures, because testing rates are so low.

Testing capacity has improved considerably, with 269 laboratories now running COVID-19 tests,, up from only 12 labs in mid-March.

But with daily tests per thousand people still extraordinarily low (0.05 this week), this country of 270 million is yet to reach even a million tests. By contrast, Australia has run close to 5 million tests.

More concerning still, the positivity rate on tests run in Indonesia is a very high 12.9%. In Australia, it is 0.4%.

Poor testing levels reflect a wider problem — low spending on health care during the pandemic, despite very poor pre-existing medical infrastructure and public health outcomes.

So far, at least 73 doctors and 55 nurses have died from the virus, largely due to a lack of personal protective equipment and adequate support at the start of the outbreak.

Medical residents, who are underpaid and work in poor conditions without standard workers’ rights, have been hit hard, with large numbers reportedly infected.

Read more: Indonesian hospitals at risk of being overwhelmed: 6 strategies to beat COVID-19

In June, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo finally called out the health ministry for lack of spending, saying it has a budget of A$7.1 billion, but had spent just 1.53% of that.

The controversial health minister, Terawan Agus Putranto, has now clearly been sidelined. After early bungles, his role was largely taken over by military figures appointed to the government’s COVID-19 taskforce.

Business is the top priority

Still, while things are bad, the horror scenario of a quarter of million dead — predicted by the University of Indonesia at the start of the outbreak — has not eventuated.

Only a little credit can go to the government for this. At best, it has muddled through, and some of its decisions seem plain crazy – for example, reopening Bali for tourism at a time when most of the world is trying to keep tourists out.

This happened domestically on July 31, with 4,000 Indonesians flying in after the Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy paid Instagram influencers to visit. Bali now plans to open for foreign tourists in September.

Yes, Bali has relatively low infection rates and its tourism-dependent economy has basically collapsed, but surely avoiding the risk of a major outbreak should be the priority?

Visitors will be required to present a negative COVID-19 test result, but domestic tourists can get away with just a rapid antibody test. Given the unreliability of rapid tests, this is hardly sufficient protection against further spread.

The Bali decision reflects the clear pattern of the government’s approach to the pandemic — keep the economy ticking over by making business the top priority. This is understandable, to a point, because the economy was already in trouble even before the pandemic hit.

That might explain why Jokowi has been so anxious to keep people working, saying he doesn’t “know why people are getting worried lately”.

In fact, Jokowi seems to regard the pandemic as a golden opportunity for pro-business initiatives, with his government trying to push a massive omnibus bill through the legislature. This is mainly intended to make life much easier for big business, including the oligarchs who back him.

The bill would dump many workers’ rights, including severance payments and compensation for lay-offs. And the World Bank has pointed out the bill would also remove a range of important environmental protections.

Read more: Indonesia was in denial over coronavirus. Now it may be facing a looming disaster

Unfortunately, this pro-business approach hasn’t worked: the economy is now in dire straits. GDP growth slowed to 2.97% in the first quarter of 2020, and then contracted by 5.32% in the second quarter.

Jokowi believes the real problem is not his policies to contain the virus, but that the poor don’t follow government health guidelines.

Many disagree. In April, a group of small traders sued the government for mishandling the pandemic. Their claim was thrown out, but the sort of criticisms they made are now widespread on social media.

The government, probably concerned to avoid wider social unrest as the ranks of the jobless and poor grow, has come down hard on online critics, arresting dozens. Last week, it even threatened to sue one Twitter user just for saying a virus-sniffer dog would be more useful than the health minister.

Hoaxes and conspiracy theories

In the meantime, very little is being done about the wild proliferation online of COVID-19 hoaxes and conspiracy theories. Popular musicians, for example, have publicly backed bogus medical specialists and organised demonstrations to reject testing.

After authorities were attacked online for failing to do anything about hoaxes, the police finally pulled musician Erdian Aji Prihartanto (known as Anji) in for questioning this week over the herbal “cure” for coronavirus he discussed in a video with a so-called microbiology researcher.

But he is not the only one peddling dodgy cures — the government is part of the problem, too. The governor of Bali, for instance, advocated inhaling the steam of a local liquor known as arak, while the agriculture minister promoted eucalyptus amulets as a cure.

Will Jokowi’s alliances start to fray?

Despite the government’s perceptible nervousness, public dissatisfaction has not translated into serious political opposition.

Some Jokowi opponents recently declared a new group, the Action Coalition to Save Indonesia (Koalisi Aksi Menyelamatkan Indonesia, KAMI), but they are unlikely to achieve much against a government that has largely closed ranks.

Jokowi is lucky that after last year’s highly divisive elections, he was able to negotiate reconciliation among political elites to support his government before the pandemic hit.

Bringing leading opponents like rival presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto into cabinet and negotiating a political alliance that can dominate the legislature has put him in a good position. For now, at least, he looks set to sit this crisis out, regardless of his government’s sluggish and messy response to the pandemic.

Read more: With his new cabinet, Indonesia’s president Jokowi prioritises national stability over everything else

But 3.7 million Indonesians have lost their jobs so far, and total unemployed is expected to hit 10 million by the end of the year.

The poverty rate is also expected to increase to 9.7% by end of the year, pushing 1.3 million more people into poverty. In a worst-case scenario, 19.7 million will become poor.

If infections escalate, deaths increase significantly and mass public protests emerge, the cohesion among political elites might start to unravel. No wonder the government is jumpy about criticism of the policies that make its response to the pandemic the worst in the region.

– ref. Indonesia’s coronavirus fatalities are the highest in Southeast Asia. So, why is Jokowi rushing to get back to business? – https://theconversation.com/indonesias-coronavirus-fatalities-are-the-highest-in-southeast-asia-so-why-is-jokowi-rushing-to-get-back-to-business-144059

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Marschner, Professor of Biostatistics, NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, University of Sydney

It’s hard to recall a time when we didn’t nervously await the announcement of Victoria’s daily COVID-19 case numbers each morning.

It was certainly disconcerting when the state recorded more than 700 new cases on two occasions not long ago.

And likewise, now that we’ve seen a few consecutive days of around 300-400 cases, it’s tempting to ask whether the peak of Victoria’s second wave is behind us.

The good news is, current daily case numbers do indicate we’ve passed the peak of the second wave. But I would suggest we actually reached the peak at the end of July, and the reported case numbers are only now catching up.

Daily case numbers versus new infections

Before we can answer the question of whether Victoria has passed the peak of its second wave, we need to be clear about what we’re asking. Although it’s natural to focus on the reported case numbers because they’re highly visible, the outbreak’s progress is in fact driven by the number of new infections.

COVID-19 infections can take up to two weeks to be diagnosed and appear in the official case count. This is because an infected person must first pass through an incubation period (the time between becoming infected and symptoms presenting), and then be tested and wait for their result.

On average, the process takes about one week, but it can vary substantially from person to person.

Read more: Two weeks of mandatory masks, but a record 725 new cases: why are Melbourne’s COVID-19 numbers so stubbornly high?

So today’s case numbers — rather than indicating new infections — actually reflect infections that occurred up to two weeks ago.

In other words, watching the case numbers doesn’t tell us the full story about the current spread of the virus. When asking whether we’ve passed the peak, we really need to focus on the peak in daily infections.

That’s where data analytics come in

We don’t know how many new infections occur each day because infections remain hidden until symptoms develop or there’s some other reason for a person to get tested.

But we do have a good idea of how long it takes for someone to progress from infection to symptoms, and then from symptoms to diagnosis by a positive test.

By combining the observed case numbers with a mathematical model for the progress from infection to diagnosis, we can then reconstruct the pattern of past infections that would have led to the case numbers. This is an epidemiological analysis method called back-projection.

This analysis is an estimate, not an observation. But we can use it to explore whether there’s any evidence infection numbers have peaked, and at what point.

Looking back to the first wave

Earlier in the outbreak I used this approach to evaluate the effectiveness of the government’s control measures. In a study looking at the first wave of infections across Australia, I showed that the timing of government restrictions matched almost exactly with the flattening and downturn of infection numbers.

This was despite the fact case numbers continued to rise after restrictions were introduced. In other words, the case numbers were hiding the good progress that was going on in the background.

Read more: Takeaway coffee allowed, but no wandering through Bunnings: here’s why Melbourne’s new business restrictions will reduce cases

By clamping down early, we probably avoided tens of thousands of infections nationally. A recent study published in the Medical Journal of Australia estimated Victoria’s control measures averted between 9,000 and 37,000 cases in July.

Returning to Victoria’s second wave

We can use the same data analytics approach to explore the progress of the recent restrictions in controlling Victoria’s second wave.

My reconstruction of Victoria’s infection numbers during the second wave, shown below, illustrates an early rise in infections during June. This rise likely accelerated in the first half of July, when new infections would have been increasing at a substantially greater rate than was evident in the daily case numbers.

This lag in the case numbers makes it plausible the recent flattening of daily cases is being driven by a much more pronounced decrease in the underlying infection numbers. This is what the reconstructed infection numbers are suggesting in the graph, which shows a peak in late July.

Again, this is an estimate rather than an observation, and the very recent infection numbers have considerable uncertainty. (This is because we work backwards with this analysis, and very few of the most recent infections will have shown up yet in the case numbers.)

Room for optimism, but not complacency

The lower case numbers in recent days suggest we’ve reached and passed the peak of Victoria’s second wave, and my analysis strengthens and supports this. It shows a peak and decline in new infections over the last couple of weeks.

If this is true there’s good reason to be optimistic the tough restrictions will drive the infection curve, and subsequently the case numbers, down even further.

But it’s sobering that my same analyses estimate Victoria has had about 2,000 more infections than case diagnoses. That’s an estimated 2,000 people who are infected but don’t yet know it.

So even if new infections have peaked, as we all hope, there’s plenty of potential for the curve to turn back up again if adherence to the restrictions wavers. Victorians have some reason to be optimistic that the peak has passed, but there’s no room for complacency.

Read more: Got a COVID-19 test in Victoria and still haven’t got your results? Here’s what may be happening — and what to do

– ref. Yes, it looks like Victoria has passed the peak of its second wave. It probably did earlier than we think – https://theconversation.com/yes-it-looks-like-victoria-has-passed-the-peak-of-its-second-wave-it-probably-did-earlier-than-we-think-144200

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Marshall, Academic, Landscape Architecture and Urban Ecology, University of Melbourne

Volcanic plains stretching from Melbourne’s west to the South Australian border were once home to native grasslands strewn with wildflowers and a vast diversity of animals. Today, this grassland ecosystem is critically endangered.

To protect the last remaining large-scale patch, the Victorian government proposed the “Western Grassland Reserve”. But in June, a damning Auditor General’s report revealed this plan has fallen flat.

Read more: EcoCheck: Victoria’s flower-strewn western plains could be swamped by development

With weeds choking the native grasses and many animals now locally extinct, the deteriorating reserve represents a failure of imagination.

Debate has raged about funding, timelines and bureaucratic processes. But what the debate is missing is a new vision, with funding and management models, for the Western Grassland Reserve, that recognises its deep culture and history, and its potential to be one of the great parks of the world.

Failing our flora and fauna

The Victorian government’s plan was to acquire 15,000 hectares of mostly farmland beyond Melbourne’s outer limit between 2010 and 2020. The money is coming from offsets, where developers are, in effect, charged a fee to be allowed to destroy federally protected remnant grassland within the urban growth boundary.

But the Auditor General’s report found a scant 10% of Western Grassland Reserve land has been purchased, with little offset money remaining for further purchases.

In addition, delays in purchasing land are costing taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars because of rising land prices. A predicted substantial downturn in development further exposes the flaws of a funding model inadequate to its conservation task.

Read more: Can we offset biodiversity losses?

We urgently need to investigate new funding and management models that embrace the reserve as a cultural landscape for people.

A quintessential Australian experience

As a patchwork of farms overlaid on traditional Wathaurong land, the Western Grassland Reserve could be shaped into one of the greatest large parks of the world – a cultural landscape capturing a quintessential Australian experience, speaking of Indigenous culture, our colonial past, and who we are today.

A well-designed reserve could show us the history of grassland pastoralism that gave rise to the saying “Australia rides on the sheep’s back”. It could immerse us in Dorothea MacKellar’s “land of sweeping plains”. It can give us back the immense flowered landscape that so stunned the explorer Thomas Mitchell, he coined the phrase “Australia Felix”, which means “happy Australia”.

And it could show us something of the profound knowledge Indigenous people hold. Few know this, but the Wurdi Youang stone circle near Little River – though as yet undated – may well be one of the oldest known astronomical structures in the world, far predating Stonehenge or the pyramids.

Imagine its potential

Imagine a picnic under a spreading gum beside an old farm dam. There’s a bluestone dairy repurposed to fine dining, a grand farmhouse for overnight stays, bike trails, and a series of regional playgrounds emphasising natureplay and adventure for all abilities.

With the right conservation, ephemeral wetlands and creeklines could be bursting with birdlife and ready to explore, and even working farms retained for school visits.

Nearby, at Mount Rothwell, a fenced conservation area contains almost extinct small marsupials – bandicoots, potoroos and apex predator quolls. These were once commonplace, and still a night visit is an unforgettable experience, yet one few Melburnians have enjoyed.

Innovation in management

Part of a bigger picture for the Western Grassland Reserve is a new management model beyond a poorly-funded Parks Victoria asset being managed solely for environmental values.

Options abound for innovation and leadership here. We can create a well-coordinated network of different management approaches and protection levels with traditional publicly owned national parks, conservation reserves, private land covenants, private protected areas and Indigenous protected areas.

Funding for management also needs rethinking. Market-driven models can ensure performance-based outcomes. For example, farmers can be paid to graze sustainably. And a new model leveraging resources and expertise could encourage the involvement of NGOs, traditional owners and community groups, species-specific teams, the Royal Botanic Gardens, with research input by universities.

Built-in commercial seed production, which is fundamental to restoring degraded areas, can kick-start the native seed industry in a win–win for commerce and the environment.

These sorts of alternative management and funding have been achieved in the south of France, within the Carmague and the stony plains of Le Crau. There, 10,000 hectares of grassland and wetland complexes are managed by broad alliance of NGOs and conservation agencies across defence land, national parks and private protected areas.

And in the USA, the largest tallgrass prairie in the country is managed by Kansas State University and the Nature Conservancy, with federal and philanthropic input. It also has an educational program that brings in more than 100 school and public events a year.

So what are we waiting for? The Great Ocean Road was built during the Great Depression, let the Western Grassland Reserve be a visionary project for these difficult times under COVID-19.

– ref. These historic grasslands are becoming a weed-choked waste. It could be one of the world’s great parks – https://theconversation.com/these-historic-grasslands-are-becoming-a-weed-choked-waste-it-could-be-one-of-the-worlds-great-parks-144208

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sally Larsen, PhD candidate, Education & Psychology, University of New England

Whether to hold a child back from starting school when they are first eligible is a question faced by many parents in Australia each year.

If you start a child at school too early, there’s a fear they may fall behind. But many working parents may wish to send their child to school as soon as they are eligible. Some data from NSW indicates children from more advantaged areas are held back more often than their less advantaged peers. And boys are more likely to be held back than girls.

We compared the NAPLAN reading and numeracy results of children who were held back with those who were sent to school when first eligible. Our results — published in the journal Child Development — suggest delayed school entry does not have a large or lasting influence on basic reading and maths skills in middle primary and lower secondary school.

Delaying school entry across Australia

School entry cut-off dates vary by state. In most Australian states children born between January and the cut-off date are allowed to begin school aged four. Or they can be held back for an extra year and begin school at five years old. In most states, students must be enrolled in school by the time they turn six.

The exceptions are Tasmania, where children must turn five by January 1 before entering school and Western Australia, where state education policy actively discourages holding children back. In WA parents must gain permission from education authorities before they can hold back their child from starting school.

In NSW, Victoria and Queensland, parents can make the decision to hold their child back without formal permission from school principals or state education departments.

The percentage of children held back from starting school when first eligible varies considerably across the country.

Holding some children back from school and sending others when first eligible means the age range in classrooms can be as much as 19 months between the youngest and oldest students.

Some international research shows children who are held back do better in academic tests in the early years of primary school — up to about Grade 3. There is also some evidence to show students held back are less likely to be rated as developmentally vulnerable by their teachers.

Read more: Which families delay sending their child to school, and why? We crunched the numbers

But other research shows no long-term academic advantage of being held back. Some Australian research found students who were younger in their grade cohorts were more motivated and engaged in early high school than their older peers.

In all, prior research has provided mixed evidence. Little largescale research has been conducted in Australia exploring the associations between delayed entry and academic outcomes in later grades. This is a gap we wanted to fill.

Our research on delayed entry

We were interested in finding out whether children who were held back from starting school performed better in NAPLAN tests in Years 3, 5, 7 and 9. NAPLAN tests can tell us broadly how well children are going in reading and maths.

We compared the scores of 2,823 children in the reading and numeracy sections of NAPLAN tests at each grade.

We found students in Year 3 received slightly higher results in NAPLAN if they were held back, compared to their peers who were not. But this slight advantage reduced at Years 5 and 7. By Year 9 students who were held back did no better on NAPLAN tests than those sent when first eligible.

When we took into account individual differences in students’ ability to focus attention, there was no difference in achievement between students who were held back and those sent on time in any grade level.

Read more: Don’t blame the teacher: student results are (mostly) out of their hands

Even differences in age exceeding 12 months appear to make little difference to NAPLAN achievement later in school. The results also indicate individual differences in ability to focus may matter more for NAPLAN achievement than being held back a year.

What we didn’t look at

This research can tell us about averages but it can’t tell us about individual circumstances that might warrant holding a child back from school. Early childhood teachers may recommend children with developmental delays or notable difficulty with language or behaviour be held back for an additional year.

Parents may also take into account the social skills of children when making decisions about delayed entry. We did not investigate social or behavioural outcomes in this research so we cannot draw conclusions about the association between delayed school entry and these important skills.

But this research suggests that despite some initial advantages for children who are held back, all children – regardless of age at school entry – make consistent progress in their reading and numeracy skills from Grade 3 to Grade 9. And any initial advantages for delayed children are negligible by the middle of secondary school.

– ref. Should you hold your child back from starting school? Research shows it has little effect on their maths and reading skills – https://theconversation.com/should-you-hold-your-child-back-from-starting-school-research-shows-it-has-little-effect-on-their-maths-and-reading-skills-132874

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alan Morris, Professor, Institute of Public Policy and Governance, University of Technology Sydney

Many international students in private rental housing in Sydney and Melbourne were struggling before COVID-19 hit. Our surveys of these students before and during the pandemic show it has made their already precarious situations much worse.

Of those with paid work when the pandemic began, six in ten lost their jobs. Many were struggling to pay rent and tuition fees.

Read more: Why coronavirus impacts are devastating for international students in private rental housing

Our new report is based on two surveys* of several thousand students. To track financial distress, we developed eight indicators from Australian Bureau of Statistics measures for the first survey in late 2019. We used these again for the second survey in mid-2020. The responses are shown below.

Since the lockdown, students’ responses showed:

• 29% of respondents had gone without meals (up from 22% prior to lockdown)

• 26% had pawned or sold something to obtain money (up from 12%)

• 23% had had trouble paying for electricity on time (up from 11%)

• 23% had asked community organisations for help (up from 4%).

Our 2019 survey showed about one in five international students in the private rental sector were already in precarious housing situations. The second survey revealed far more were living precariously because of deteriorating finances during the pandemic.

Read more: 90,000 foreign graduates are stuck in Australia without financial support: it’s a humanitarian and economic crisis in the making

This article also draws on 26 semi-structured interviews with students to share fresh insights into how they have coped as the pandemic unfolded in Sydney and Melbourne.

Incomes from work and family lost

The central financial issue has been loss of income during the pandemic. Just 15% of students who’d lost jobs had found a new one. Almost two-thirds (63%) of those who still had a job had had their hours cut, most by about 50%.

At the same time, financial support from families decreased for just over four in ten students. Only 12% said it had increased.

Before the pandemic, 50% of respondents reported an income below A$500 a week; after it began, 70% did.

Struggling to pay the rent

Six in ten respondents agreed paying the rent had become more difficult. Since the pandemic, 27% said they were unable to pay the full rent. One in five agreed or strongly agreed with the statement: “I feel I could become homeless.”

A VET student described the impact of losing her job on her finances:

I could really save some money in the month of February and March that really, you know, took me until the month of April. So, I was not really worried in April, but then as May started and nearly the middle of May, I was really worried about my account balance. I’d already given multiple calls to different organisations by then for any kind of support.

Half of our respondents reported trying to negotiate a rent reduction: 22% received a reduction and 31% received a reduction or a deferral. Almost half were unsuccessful. A university student from Melbourne outlined her failed attempt to reduce rent:

Yeah, we are worrying [about paying the rent] and like we emailed to our agency to make discount or something like that, but they said it’s hard for them, an agency and landlord too, because the landlord has a mortgage […] and everybody’s struggling and so for now they don’t have any discount […] so we are worried because before that, before this current thing [the pandemic], we had our part-time jobs and the three of us have now lost our jobs.

Read more: Tracking the rise of room sharing and overcrowding, and what it means for housing in Australia

A vocational education and training (VET) student from Sydney, who lost her job in March, described how she was treated when she couldn’t pay the full rent:

So I was not able to pay my full rent [… ]because of that they [the agent] were like, ‘Okay, don’t pay rent if you don’t have any money, we’ll understand.’ […] Then all of a sudden by mid-April they were like, ‘Hey, you have this much outstanding rent and you have to pay it immediately, otherwise the landlord is going to file the case to the tribunal.’ And I was shocked, and it was out of nowhere, and I told them, ‘You were the one who told me you didn’t have to pay rent if you don’t have it.‘

Studies and well-being suffer too

Students are struggling on several fronts. One student remarked:

Yeah, it’s crazy. It’s hard sometimes so that I’m not sleeping and then you have to do school work as well and then you have to think about these things like managing, talking to agents every day and negotiating and searching for jobs. There’s just a lot of things coming together.

Six in ten respondents agreed or strongly agreed financial stress was affecting their studies. Over half (54%) reported financial difficulties and 44% worried they might not be able to pay tuition fees.

I’ve also been trying to get fees reduction but every time it has always been like a negative response. So it has actually been pretty difficult […] especially with we’re not getting the same quality of education.

Just over a third (35%) worried they might have to leave Australia before completing their studies.

Respondents did not feel governments had supported them. State government support was rated good or excellent by 17%, and only 13% felt that way about federal government support.

One university student said:

In this current pandemic the Australian government has made it more clear that they don’t really care about the [international] students. I don’t know why is that. It’s pretty much heartbreaking considering the input of them in the Australian economy.

Read more: COVID-19 increases risk to international students’ mental health. Australia urgently needs to step up

Loneliness on the rise

Loneliness was already a significant problem and it has worsened during the pandemic. Just under a third of respondents said they felt lonely before the pandemic, but 63% felt lonelier since the pandemic.

A university student in Sydney said:

I think no one would even know if I had died in my room if it wasn’t for a month when my landlady would come and ask for rent. Other than that, no one would even know.

Our research is revealing just how precarious the lives of international students have become. Policymakers should heed the evidence and consider how to make Australia a better place to study.

* The first survey was distributed by 43 educational institutions (24 VET, ten universities, seven English language and two foundation course institutions) to their international students in late 2019. It received 7,084 responses. The second was distributed in June-July 2020 to 3,114 respondents of the first survey who had agreed to face-to-face interviews and to be recontacted. The second survey received 852 responses.

– ref. ‘No one would even know if I had died in my room’: coronavirus leaves international students in dire straits – https://theconversation.com/no-one-would-even-know-if-i-had-died-in-my-room-coronavirus-leaves-international-students-in-dire-straits-144128

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dallas Rogers, School of Architecture, Design and Planning, University of Sydney

Public housing estate redevelopments that displace residents to other suburbs are highly disruptive whereas projects that allow them to remain are suggested to be better.

We tested this assumption through two large, multi-year ethnographic studies with the residents of the Waterloo public housing estate in Sydney between 2010 and 2017.

Read more: Public housing ‘renewal’ likely to drive shift to private renters, not owners, in Sydney

Although they have not yet been physically moved from their homes, our research shows even the threat of being moved has already done significant damage to residents’ relationship with their homes and community.

One resident said this redevelopment:

[…] is slum clearance — we’re to be cleansed by living next to yuppies.

Waterloo urban renewal

The Waterloo estate is located 3km south of Sydney’s central business district. A redevelopment has been mooted since at least 2011.

In 2018, the estate was home to around 4,000 people in about 2,000 dwellings. A high proportion of residents were either elderly or spoke English as a second language.

The New South Wales government said in December 2015 the estate would be redeveloped to house 10,000 people, although the exact number is still to be determined.

Some housing will be affordable (5%) and social dwellings (30%). But the majority (65%) will be private market housing in keeping with the government’s controversial social mix redevelopment agenda.

The high land value of the area means the government can greatly increase the housing density on the site. This allows government to keep the existing public housing tenants in the suburb throughout and after the redevelopment.

Yet enormous upheaval will be required to transform the site.

The redeveloped site will be unrecognisable to existing residents as it will be dramatically altered to fit the extra buildings, people, businesses and a major transport hub.

One resident said:

[…] the Metro [station] and the redevelopment are not separate; this is just the beginning of a massive demolition.

Public housing tenants will be allocated a new dwelling on the site. But many suggest they will not be adequately compensated for the loss of their homes and community, which they see as distinct from a dwelling.

Another resident said:

[…] this is a unique place, there’s nowhere else like this […] We live together quite harmoniously compared to other places.

Public housing is still a home

The residents’ concerns about displacement are related to the radical transformation of their neighbourhood. Despite not being physically displaced to other areas, the physical, social and business landscape will be completely replaced.

As one resident said:

[…] the moment the first building is knocked down, this community will be nonexistent.

This experience of displacement is related not merely to the loss of a building that was home to them, but what the building stands for.

The symbolism of these public housing buildings is important for residents. The housing was purpose-built in a time of more government support for low-income workers or the more disadvantaged in society.

Many residents feel connected not just to the public housing buildings but to the more equitable society they represent. One resident said:

Matavai and Turanga [towers] are models of their kind; they embody a vision for society. We might lose their legacy [if they are demolished].

Density and social composition

The redevelopment will transform the urban design of the area too. Residents are concerned the neighbourhood will not be able to accommodate the higher density and larger population.

Many of the public open spaces that serve local residents will be reduced. This will radically change the social and recreational spaces that support many community activities and social networks.

These changes will transform the area’s social composition and economic dynamics. One resident said:

[…] there’s already little room enough. They’re going to squeeze thousands more in, there won’t be room for anything.

Commercial rent increases may drive out local businesses that currently serve local residents. Residents have already noted increases in food and drink prices in the new cafes that serve middle-class property owners, morgagees and private renters.

Some in the local Aboriginal community see the redevelopment as another step in the systematic dispossession of their land and violence against their people.

One Aboriginal resident said:

They are subsuming our community […] They’re bringing the ethnic cleansing down here to Waterloo […] Whatever happens in Redfern ripples across the country in other Aboriginal communities; this is so important as a place for all Aboriginal people.

Elderly residents are convinced they will not outlive the redevelopment. They fear they will live their final decades in tumultuous and uncertain circumstances.

From displacement to replacement

Public housing residents want government to renew their poorly maintained housing. But they want renewal without a complete restructuring of the social and economic fabric of their community and neighbourhood.

The influx of new residents will transform the existing community into a minority with little voice or influence in a neighbourhood dominated by private renters and home owners.

Read more: Public land is being sold exactly where thousands on the waiting list need housing

A different tenure mix is needed with a higher proportion of public, social and affordable housing.

By allowing public housing tenants to remain in place, the state government might hope to avoid the class conflicts inherent in state-led gentrification. Yet almost every facet of residents’ social and economic lives will be replaced through the redevelopment.

The upheaval of the low-income community and the subsuming of their space by middle- and upper-class households will be experienced as displacement by local residents, despite residents remaining in place.

– ref. Public housing renewal can make tenants feel displaced in their home, even before any work begins – https://theconversation.com/public-housing-renewal-can-make-tenants-feel-displaced-in-their-home-even-before-any-work-begins-142912

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Bell, Executive Director, The Conexus Institute; Associate Investigator, CEPAR, UNSW

The past financial year has been one of the most volatile on record for stock markets, yet almost every Australian super fund has delivered similar returns.

This not only demonstrates that super funds very rarely make large calls about when to buy and sell, it also gives an insight into what we should do when making our own investment decisions.

Back in mid-February stock indices in Australia and overseas were at all-time highs. As COVID-19 took effect stock markets collapsed about 40% in less than five weeks.

Then over the following three months amid massive injections of stimulus, both monetary and fiscal, many of those markets rallied by close to 40%.

A super fund prepared to trust its judgement on timing could have done very well indeed, selling “going underweight in shares” as the news of COVID hit, and then buying “going overweight” when the market hit bottom.

In fact, few did. The data insights firm Chant West reports that most so-called growth funds (exposed to growth assets such as shares) did much the same thing, recording a median loss of 0.6% over the year, gaining 6.4% in the seven months to the end of January and losing it in the five months that followed.

Why don’t super funds time markets?

Super funds are hesitant to aggressively time markets because it is both challenging and risky.

Even with the benefit of hindsight it is difficult to identify all the reasons why a market moved in a particular direction. It is harder in real time, when a judgement needs to be made about whether a movement will continue.

No single person or firm has access to all information, both public and private, and knows how to weigh each piece of information through time.

Read more: The S&P 500 nears its all-time high. Here’s why stock markets are defying economic reality

Some approaches to timing seem to work for a while and then stop working (a phenomenon known as regime change).

It is the same for investment managers: some have been lauded as successful only to subsequently fail.

Switching strategies is hard

It might sound counterintuitive, but it is especially hard for chief investment officers of super funds to switch strategies.

These days chief investment officers tend to perform executive rather than hands-on duties.

They can have responsibilities ranging from team management to communications. It is hard for them to get the time needed to bring together all the information they have access to, weigh it up and form a considered view.

Regardless, any view that the chief investment officer does form is likely to be diluted by the bureaucracy of the fund.

Sizeable market calls typically require approval by an investment committee or board, which can lead to a time-consuming, if healthy, debate and second thoughts.

And many super funds are wary of their peer group. They don’t want to take the risk of doing something different which might see them underperforming the funds with which they are compared.

Read more: No snapback: Reserve Bank no longer confident of quick bounce out of recession

Ultimately the sizing of any attempt at market timing is likely to be small. Super funds are big, and find it hard to move without moving prices.

It means that even being 5% underweight or overweight in something is a big call.

It’s even harder for us

Consumers find it even harder to time markets.

Institutions have better access to information and insights, and the people who run them generally have better qualifications and experience.

And we are misled about how consistently they can get it right.

Investment funds usually don’t mention the managers who under-perform, and the media loves winners.

Even Hollywood eulogises the winners: the movie The Big Short tells the story of three hedge funds who made huge profits during the global financial crisis.

Read more: Gambling on the stock market: are retail investors even playing to win?

What it doesn’t mention is that there were more than 10,000 hedge funds at the time and, while a small number made huge profits, thousands lost heavily and had to close.

If consumers are interested in trading, which can be fun and engaging as well as stressful, they need to be aware that, on average, they are no more successful than the super funds, and not particularly successful at timing switches of options within their funds, such as from “growth” to “conservative”.

Diaries can help

One way to get better is to keep a paper diary detailing potential positions and the reasons for them, all the time indicating why they should be any better than the positions taken by professionals.

It is critical to be aware of the potential for loss and the financial and psychological effect it can have, how exposed to those losses you are and what your plan is for when they turn up.

Meeting a financial advisor can be a good place to start.

– ref. Timing the share market is hard – just ask your super fund – https://theconversation.com/timing-the-share-market-is-hard-just-ask-your-super-fund-144202

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Thomas Suddendorf, Professor, School of Psychology, The University of Queensland

Today, bags are everywhere — from cheap canvas ones at the supermarket to designer handbags costing up to US$2,000,000.

But archaeological evidence shows we have been using mobile containers — bags and other carrying devices — for tens of thousands of years.

Before sedentary life took root after the end of the last ice age (around 12,000-years-ago), people hunted, fished, and gathered everything they needed for day-to-day life.

Without bags, such a lifestyle would have meant only a couple of tools could be kept on the body at any one time. Anything else would have to be made when and where it was needed, or left at strategic locations.

With carrying devices, our ancestors could carry many tools and there was a benefit in making tools in advance — even those only used occasionally.

Consider the 5,300-year-old frozen man found in the Ötztal Alps in Tyrol, Italy, in 1991.

Ötzi carried dozens of tools in his quiver and string and birch bark baskets, including an axe, a bow-and-arrow, a dagger, medicinal fungi, and a fire-making kit. A pouch sewn to his belt contained small tools including a drill, an awl, and a scraper.

Carrying such tools was a major advantage in allowing humans to be prepared for unexpected events.

When did humans invent mobile containers?

We recently reviewed the archaeological record for the earliest signs of mobile container use in humans.

Indicators of baskets, nets, and pots reach back some 30,000 years, with containers made from wood and stalagmites made some 50,000-years-ago.

Earlier this year, a study reported a small piece of 3-ply cord made from inner bark fibres found at a Neanderthal site dated to between 41,000 and 52,000 years old. This could point to the creation of bags and the weaving of baskets.

Natural containers, such as shells, were used much earlier by both modern humans and Neanderthals: archaeological sites at Blombos Cave in South Africa and Qafzeh in Israel record the use of shells for holding red ochre more than 100,000-years-ago.

It is likely the origins of carrying devices are, in fact, much older than we have found evidence for. However, most materials used for making carrying devices – such as hides, barks, and fibres – decompose rapidly and leave no traces behind for us to find.

It is possible older containers will be eventually reported, especially when archaeologists pay more attention to them in their collections.

We suspect that without realising the critical importance of these tools to human evolution, and perhaps because of the association with gathering and “women’s work”, some evidence may have been overlooked.

What about the animals?

Marsupials have pouches to carry their offspring. Pelicans have throat sacks to carry fish to their young.

But do any animals make carrying devices?

Many species use tools, and a few even make tools, such as chimpanzees stripping twigs of a branch for termite fishing. But there is little to suggest these animals retain their tools for future problems, or they have invented carrying devices to keep these tools for a long period of time.

There are a few reports of animals independently using human-made containers, such as a crow transporting food with a cup. Humans have, of course, long attached containers to animals, making beasts of burden carry or pull loads.

The physical capacity to use such tools isn’t in question; just the mental capacity. There is little evidence of animals having the foresight required to recognise the usefulness of containers for future activities.

It has pockets!

The emergence of humans using mobile containers at least 100,000 years ago indicates people were increasingly thinking ahead and recognising the future utility of their tools.

This ability may be right at the heart of what it means to innovate.

Humans and other animals constantly solve problems. But once we recognise the potential of using a solution in the future we become motivated to retain and safeguard new tools. We may even be willing to invest time and effort refining those tools further – perhaps sharing them with our friends and family.

In this way, the appearance of mobile containers in the archaeological record can indicate a key cognitive shift in our ancestors: foresight began to drive tool innovation (including further containers) and the evolution of ever more sophisticated material cultures.

Today mobile containers are everywhere. Our clothes have pockets, we have suitcases for clothes, and trolleys for suitcases. We put suitcases in containers and containers on ships. Large mobile containers carry humans across water, through the air, and into space.

Mobile containers are so ubiquitous it is easy to overlook the fundamental importance of this basic invention.

These carrying devices allowed our forebears to have tools and resources at the ready wherever they went. The dramatic exploitation of this concept has allowed humans to create a world full of containers transporting endless amounts of stuff — big and small — to where we want it to go.

Without the invention of bags, we’d still be running in the woods with our hands full.

– ref. Got your bag? The critical place of mobile containers in human evolution – https://theconversation.com/got-your-bag-the-critical-place-of-mobile-containers-in-human-evolution-142712

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The Royal Commission into Aged Care put the Secretary of the Federal Health Department, Brendan Murphy, firmly in his place when he tried to make an opening statement to attack claims by the senior counsel assisting the commission, Peter Rozen, QC.

Murphy, who became a nationally known figure when as Chief Medical Officer he appeared regularly at Scott Morrison’s news conferences, had not been due to give evidence at the commission’s sittings on COVID this week.

But after Rozen’s Monday statement the federal government, which is increasingly concerned at the criticism it is receiving over inadequate preparation for the pandemic in aged care facilities, asked to have him added to the panel of Commonwealth witnesses who appeared on Wednesday.

As questioning of the panel was about to start Murphy broke in, saying he wanted to make a statement in response to Rozen inaccurately claiming the Commonwealth had not planned for the outbreak in aged care and as a result there had been a high death rate.

But after a brief adjournment for consultations the commission denied his request, although he was allowed to make the statement at the session’s end. As commissioner Tony Pagone put it with the utmost politeness but equal firmness, “We are really in control of the procedure that we have and we just need to continue with that.”

On Wednesday Victoria announced a record 21 deaths from the previous 24 hours, 16 of them linked to aged care.

In a Facebook message Scott Morrison, expressing condolences, referred particularly to the need to protect the vulnerable elderly.

He also said pointedly: “I want to assure that where there are shortcomings in these areas they’ll be acknowledged. And the lessons will be learned.”

He warned there would be more “difficult news” in the days and weeks ahead.

Earlier on Wednesday professor Joseph Ibrahim, a specialist in geriatric medicine from Monash University, told the commission: “This is the worst disaster that is still unfolding before my eyes and it’s the worst in my entire career”.

He said hundreds of residents would die prematurely because people had failed to act.

“There’s a level of apathy, a lack of urgency. There’s an attitude of futility which leads to an absence of action.

“The reliance or promotion of advance care plans as a way to manage the pandemic and the focus on leaving residents in their setting I think is wrong and inappropriate. When I voiced my concerns, I have had comments saying that everything is under control, that I’m simply overreacting and causing panic,” Ibrahim said.

Early in the crisis Ibrahim made representations to state and federal bodies, and to Morrison, health minister Greg Hunt and aged care minister Richard Colbeck.

The tension was evident when the panel of Commonwealth officials gave evidence.

Michael Lye, the health department’s deputy secretary for ageing and aged care, unsuccessfully tried to divert to Murphy a question about Australia faring badly on aged care deaths compared to other countries. Rozen insisted Lye answer, saying sharply, “No, I don’t want professor Murphy to answer the question, Mr Lye. I’m asking you. You told us you were the senior most official with aged care responsibility within the Commonwealth department of health”.

In one embarrassing moment for the federal officials, Rozen drew attention to Murphy prompting Lye when the latter was struggling under the questioning.

Rozen told both Lye and Murphy, as they periodically veered into wider comments, to just answer his questions.

Quizzed about the apparent lateness of a July 13 decision to make masks compulsory for care providers in Victorian homes, Murphy admitted “in hindsight, you could have implemented that earlier”, agreeing it was “possible” it might have reduced the number of infections entering homes.

In his forcefully-delivered statement at the end of the session, Murphy declared: “We reject categorically that the Australian government failed to adequately plan and prepare” for COVID in aged care.

He also strongly rejected that there was anything pejorative in the fact people from aged care formed a high proportion of “an extraordinary low death rate in Australia”. “I would say the contrary is true.” He said across Australia’s aged care facilities 0.1% of residents had succumbed to COVID compared to 5% in the UK with many more not detected.

The fact that two thirds of Australia’s about 350 deaths were from aged care “is really a reflection of the extraordinarily low community death rate,” Murphy said.

Diana Asmar, Victorian secretary of the Health Workers Union, told the commission: “Our members right now feel like they’re on the bottom of the Titanic ship”. They did not have proper access to personal protective equipment, they were suffering from huge staffing pressures, and they were feeling neglected.

“The lack of communication, the lack of training, the lack of staffing and the lack of protection unfortunately has caused a huge concern in the aged care sector,” she said.

– ref. Royal Commission into Aged Care reminds Health Department Secretary Brendan Murphy it sets the rules – https://theconversation.com/royal-commission-into-aged-care-reminds-health-department-secretary-brendan-murphy-it-sets-the-rules-144385

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kylie Quinn, Vice-Chancellor’s Research Fellow, School of Health and Biomedical Sciences, RMIT University

On Tuesday, Vladimir Putin announced Russia was the first country to register a vaccine offering “sustainable immunity” against SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.

Developed by the Gamaleya Research Institute in Moscow, it’s been registered with the Russian Health Ministry and approved for emergency use only.

But there are concerns it will soon be rolled out across the Russian population, far beyond emergency use. This has prompted discussion about the “race” towards a COVID-19 vaccine.

While speed is important, ensuring a vaccine is effective and safe is much more critical. The consequences of doling out a potentially unsafe and ineffective vaccine could be wide-reaching.

Read more: Vaccine progress report: the projects bidding to win the race for a COVID-19 vaccine

Data about the trials has not been published

The Gamaleya Research Institute announced it registered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine with the Russian Health Ministry, the local regulatory body that determines which medicines can be used in Russia. This vaccine is called “Sputnik V” and the Institute has indicated it’s approved for emergency use. An emergency use approval generally means a vaccine could be offered to people at very high risk of infection, such as health-care workers, but not the general civilian population.

The Institute had previously registered this vaccine for a Phase I/II trial (to assess safety and immune responses in humans), initially with just 38 people. Senior Russian officials said it induced a strong immune response and no “serious complications” in this trial. This isn’t too surprising, as published data from human clinical trials for other similar vaccines have shown strong immune responses and no serious complications.

However, the data from the trial of Sputnik V has not been published and there is no data that indicates the vaccine would actually protect, as Phase III studies (requiring thousands of volunteers to demonstrate efficacy and detect rare side-effects) haven’t been performed.

The Institute did announce a Phase III trial for Sputnik V will begin on August 12 in Russia and several other countries. However, many scientists (including Russian researchers) expressed concern the vaccine will soon be used in large civilian vaccination campaigns, which wouldn’t usually be the case with an approval for emergency use.

What are the risks

If we go back to the analogy of a “race”, we should stop thinking of vaccine development as the 100-metre sprint. Instead, think of it more like the pentathlon. In the pentathlon, each section the athlete completes contributes to their overall score and cannot be missed. If we try to run this race against COVID-19 without each section, we could end up with a vaccine which has not been properly tested, which could be unsafe and would be unethical. And then we all lose.

The risks of advancing into mass vaccination without proper testing are significant. If a vaccine is released but side-effects emerge, the consequences include both the health impacts and deterioration in trust from our community. If the vaccine does not protect individuals from infection, those who have been vaccinated could falsely believe they are protected.

Our system of methodical series of clinical trials has been designed, oftentimes with hard-won lessons, to avoid oversights and build essential data on safety, immunity and protection with vaccines.

As stated by the US Health and Human Services secretary, Alex Azar:

The point is not to be first with a vaccine. The point is to have a vaccine that is safe and effective for the American people and the people of the world.

Development takes time and we need to be realistic with our timelines and expectations.

Testing a vaccine is rigorous

When countries consider introducing a vaccine, the following information is examined:

• how safe is the vaccine?

• how well does the vaccine work?

• how serious is the disease the vaccine would prevent?

• how many people would get the disease if we did not have the vaccine?

This information is collected during each phase of the clinical trials (Phase I, II and III), with a particular focus on vaccine safety at each step. Developing this package of information can take years, but there have been cases when timelines were condensed.

For example, testing for an Ebola vaccine was condensed down to five years due to a critical need for a vaccine in the midst of ongoing epidemics. Regardless of this urgency, each clinical trial phase was still completed.

Phase III clinical trials are especially critical to assess safety in a large group of people, because certain rare side effects may not be identified in earlier, smaller trials. For example, if a vaccine-related side effect only occurred in one in every 10,000 people, the trial would have to enrol 60,000 volunteers to detect it.

In general, vaccines are more thoroughly tested than any other medicine. We administer vaccines to healthy people, so safety is the key priority, and we administer vaccines to large numbers of people, so rare side-effects must be identified.

What’s in this vaccine?

This type of vaccine is called a viral vector. With viral vectors, we trick our immune system with a bait-and-switch; we take a harmless virus, modify it so it can’t replicate, and include a target from the surface of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The vaccine looks like a dangerous virus to the immune system, so the immune response is relatively strong and targeted against SARS-CoV-2, but the virus can’t cause disease.

Sputnik V is unusual because it uses two different viral vectors, one after the other, in what we call a “prime boost”. The first is called Ad26, which is similar to a COVID-19 vaccine being developed by Johnson&Johnson, and the second is called Ad5, which is similar to a COVID-19 vaccine being developed by CanSino Biologics. This prime boost should generate a relatively strong immune response, but we don’t know for sure.

Viral vectors are also a relatively new technology. There have been a number of large clinical trials with viral vectors for HIV, Malaria, Tuberculosis and Ebola, but only one for Ebola has ever been approved for use in the general population.

Read more: The vaccine we’re testing in Australia is based on a flu shot. Here’s how it could work against coronavirus

– ref. Russia’s coronavirus vaccine hasn’t been fully tested. Doling it out risks side effects and false protection – https://theconversation.com/russias-coronavirus-vaccine-hasnt-been-fully-tested-doling-it-out-risks-side-effects-and-false-protection-144347

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By C Raina MacIntyre, Professor of Global Biosecurity, NHMRC Principal Research Fellow, Head, Biosecurity Program, Kirby Institute, UNSW

With mask wearing in public compulsory in Victoria and recommended in New South Wales, many Australians are buying, wearing or making face masks for the first time.

Reports of counterfeit or potentially substandard masks on the market may lead some people to question whether their surgical or cloth mask actually works.

So what can you look out for when buying a mask to make sure it does what it’s supposed to do?

And how can you test one you’ve bought or made?

What do I look for in a surgical mask?

Surgical masks (also known as medical masks) are usually made of three or four layers, most commonly polypropylene.

Ideally, they should meet Australian standards for how well they filter and how resistant they are to water.

Only masks the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) approves as medical products (officially known as medical devices) can be used in hospitals.

If a mask meets Australian standards as a medical device, you will see a label on the packaging, plus a code indicating the standards it has met, such as:

• AS/NZS 4381:2015

• ASTM F2101-14 or EN 14683:2014

• ISO 22609 or ASTM F1862/F1862M-13.

If your surgical mask says “not for medical use”, it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s useless. It just means it has not been submitted to the TGA for approval as a medical device.

If that’s the case, you can assess it using one of the methods below.

What do I look for in a cloth mask?

Cloth masks are non-medical devices. But they can be designed to be reasonably protective.

If you’re buying one online or making one yourself, check how many layers it has. A single-layered mask is better than no covering, but two layers are better than one, and three layers are better than two. More than three layers are better still.

Look for a fine weave, high thread count and dense material. Flimsy or see-through material, or material with large gaps, is not adequate because droplets and aerosols can pass through the gaps.

Read more: Which mask works best? We filmed people coughing and sneezing to find out

For a cloth mask, pure cotton is not a good choice for the outer layer, as it is absorbent. If someone else is coughing and sneezing near you, you want your mask to block those droplets rather than enable them to pass through the mask and infect you. A polyester or cotton-polyester blend is a better choice for this outer layer.

So for cloth masks, aim for at least three layers, including a water-resistant outer layer. The inner layer can be cotton, as that makes it more comfortable to wear, because it will absorb moisture from your breathing.

Check also that your mask fits well around your face. If you have gaps around the edges of your mask, you can breathe in unfiltered, contaminated air.

Look to see if there’s a nose bridge piece or other adjustable edge to help mould the mask around your nose and the top of your cheeks. If your mask is loose-fitting, a nylon stocking over the top can improve the fit and seal.

And remember to wash your cloth mask daily.

Read more: 13 insider tips on how to wear a mask without your glasses fogging up, getting short of breath or your ears hurting

How can I test my mask at home?

Test for good filtration and fit

For filtration and fit, you can do some rather time-consuming experiments at home.

But a much simpler method is the candle test, popularised by US science educator Bill Nye. If you can blow out a candle while wearing your mask, that’s a fail.

It means your mask doesn’t adequately stop the flow of air. If you can blow air out, air can also leak inward just as easily.

Test for water resistance

The virus is carried on water droplets expelled when infected people talk, cough and sneeze. If these droplets land on your mask, you want the outer layer to repel them.

A TGA-approved mask will be water resistant. But not all other masks are. So you can test a non-approved surgical mask or cloth mask at home.

If a drop of water on the outside surface is absorbed straight away, that’s a fail. If the drop forms a bead, the mask is water-resistant.

Read more: How should I clean my cloth mask?

Whether you go for a surgical mask that’s an approved medical device, an unapproved surgical mask, or a cloth mask, these simple tips should help you assess it before leaving the house.

Masks are a simple method for helping reduce transmission of the virus that causes COVID-19, alongside physical distancing, hand-washing and other infection control measures. If enough people wear them, they may even help avoid a lockdown.

– ref. How do I know if my mask actually works? What about the ‘candle test’? – https://theconversation.com/how-do-i-know-if-my-mask-actually-works-what-about-the-candle-test-144124

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bruce Webber, Principal Research Scientist, CSIRO

Scientists have been interested in the flora of New Guinea since the 17th century, but formal knowledge of the tropical island’s diversity has remained limited.

To solve this mystery, our global team of 99 scientists from 56 institutions built the first ever expert-verified checklist to the region’s vascular plants (those with conductive tissue).

We found there are 13,634 formally described species of plants in New Guinea, of which a remarkable 68% are known to occur there and nowhere else. This richness trumps both Madagascar (11,488 species) and Borneo (11,165 species), making New Guinea the most floristically diverse island in the world.

From tarantula-like orchids to giant bananas, here we reveal some of the more mysterious plants on our checklist. Sadly, unsustainable logging and climate change threaten the conservation of many New Guinean species, and we highlight urgent solutions.

Read more: People are ‘blind’ to plants, and that’s bad news for conservation

The majestic flora of New Guinea

New Guinea is a land of evocative contrasts. As the world’s largest tropical island – made up of Papua New Guinea to the east and two Indonesian provinces to the west – its biological diversity spans habitats from fringing mangroves to alpine grasslands.

The flora is diverse, filled with the majestic, stunning, intriguing and bizarre. However, very little is known about the conservation status of many species in New Guinea, which remains relatively unexplored by scientists.

There are the few remaining forests of 60 metres high hoop pine (Araucaria cunninghamii) and klinkii pine (A. hunsteinii), that tower majestically up to 30 metres above the already tall rainforest canopy.

Figs, with their copious sap, are present in diverse forms, from small shrubs to vines, or large canopy trees.

And the strongly irritant black sap of the Semecarpus tree, a distant relative of the American poison ivy, causing severe dermatitis, is something naive botanists must learn to avoid!

Then there’s the Ryparosa amplifolia, a rainforest tree that provides swollen hollow stems for ant colonies to live inside. The tree also produces energy rich “food bodies” – granule-like structures on the leaves that mimic animal tissue and provide the ants with sustenance. In return, the ants act as bodyguards, chasing away insect herbivores, and leaf cleaners.

Some of our most popular foods were domesticated from New Guinea, including sugarcane and bananas. But the giant banana, Musa ingens is a a highlight in montane forests. Its leaves can stretch to a length of 5 metres, the tree can grow more than 20 metres tall, and its fruits are massive.

With more than 2,400 species of native orchid species, New Guinea is one of the most spectacular floral gardens in the world. It includes fascinating species such as Bulbophyllum nocturnum, which is the first and only known example of a night-flowering orchid, and Bulbophyllum tarantula, with appendages that resemble the iconic spider.

An uncertain future

Despite New Guinea’s seemingly high number of plant species, at least 3,000 species remain to be discovered and formally described. This estimate is based on the rate of description of new species in the past decades.

Much of New Guinea, particularly the Indonesian part, has been extremely poorly studied, with very few plant species collected. Even within Papua New Guinea, the distribution of many species is inadequately known. This means our findings should be viewed as a baseline upon which to prioritise further work.

The biggest impact on forest conservation is from logging, both clear-felling and degradation. As land is predominantly under customary ownership, addressing subsistence-related forest loss is a long-term challenge. Climate change adds yet further threats, including increased burning of degraded forest due to drier weather.

This means there’s a high risk of the world losing entire species before they are even known.

To this end, in 2018 the governors of Indonesia’s two New Guinea provinces announced the Manokwari Declaration, a pledge to conserve 70% of forest cover for the western half of the island.

Reversing funding shortfalls and declining engagement

Our work builds on many decades of effort by plant collectors whose countless nights under leaking canvas, grass huts and bark shelters have led to thousands of plant discoveries.

Their stories are astounding. These fearless adventurers have sampled water plants by jumping from helicopters hovering low over Lake Tebera, swam in the Purari River rapids to haul a disabled dugout canoe full of botanists and cargo to safety, and have fallen into beds of stinging plants in the mountains of Wagau without subsequent access to pain relief.

Taxonomy – the discipline of identifying, classifying, and understanding relationships between plants – is the key to unlocking the value of this collecting effort.

But the discipline is suffering from global funding shortfalls and declining engagement. For instance, 40% of our co-authors on this work are 55 years or older.

Future opportunities for botanical research with local New Guineans at the helm is also vital – only 15% of the scientific publications on the New Guinean flora over the past 10 years involved local co-authors.

Improved collaboration between taxonomists, scientific institutions, governments and New Guinean scientific agencies could address these critical urgent priorities.

Undoubtedly, the conservation of New Guinea’s unique flora will be challenging and require work on many fronts that transcend single disciplines or institutions. From what we know already, a world of botanical surprises awaits in the last unknown.

After all, as 19th century naturalist J.B. Jukes wrote:

I know of no part of the world, the exploration of which is so flattering to the imagination, so likely to be fruitful in interesting results […] and altogether so well calculated to gratify the enlightened curiosity of an adventurous explorer, as the interior of New Guinea.

Read more: From superheroes to the clitoris: 5 scientists tell the stories behind these species names

– ref. ‘Majestic, stunning, intriguing and bizarre’: New Guinea has 13,634 species of plants, and these are some of our favourites – https://theconversation.com/majestic-stunning-intriguing-and-bizarre-new-guinea-has-13-634-species-of-plants-and-these-are-some-of-our-favourites-144279

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alison Taylor, Teaching Fellow, Bond University

The Melbourne International Film Festival is currently running online, but one movie announced at their program launch won’t be streaming.

At the end of July, Sandra Wollner’s The Trouble With Being Born was withdrawn after the festival received “expert advice and following further community consultation”.

The festival cited concerns over the “safety and wellbeing” of the public. Undoubtedly, the Austrian film was a controversial choice to begin with – it portrays (albeit not explicitly) a man’s sexual abuse of a robot child.

Its premiere in Berlin earlier this year was divisive, earning both audience walk-outs and a Jury Prize.

This film is the latest in a long line to push audiences to extreme discomfort. So how far is too far for cinematic representation?

‘Rivers of viscera’

Historically, moral outrage about boundary pushing movies has proven an endlessly renewable resource. Thomas Edison’s 1896 recording of a kiss in close up was termed “absolutely disgusting” by the painter John Sloan, who wrote that “police interference” was warranted.

Racy films of Hollywood’s pre-Code era of the early 1930s, right through to the late 1970s were often given a “condemned” rating by America’s Catholic Legion of Decency, implying “see this movie and go to Hell”.

Stanley Kubrick’s A Clockwork Orange (1971) and David Cronenberg’s Crash (1996) sparked fierce media backlash upon their release in Britain.

Films including Claire Denis’s Trouble Every Day (2001) and Bruno Dumont’s Twentynine Palms (2003) prompted Artforum critic James Quandt’s fierce invective against “New French Extremity” in cinema in 2004.

Exasperated, Quandt lamented:

a cinema suddenly determined to break every taboo, to wade in rivers of viscera and spumes of sperm, to fill each frame with flesh, nubile or gnarled, and subject it to all manner of penetration, mutilation, and defilement.

Inciting outrage

The way society engages with films whose subject matter alone makes us uncomfortable is problematic.

Clickbait headlines reduce challenging or offensive films to one-line synopses that incite outrage or disavowal. Similarly, reviews tend to zero in on a film’s shock factor, and so these extreme factors become the film’s broader cultural touchpoints.

Gaspar Noé’s Irreversible (2001) is known as the ten-minute rape scene film; Larry Clark’s Kids (1995) is the adolescent promiscuity movie; Pier Paolo Pasolini’s Salò (1975) the shit-eating torture flick.

It’s not that these descriptors are inaccurate, it’s that they are hopelessly reductive and prime knee-jerk disgust rather than critical engagement.

As Variety critic Jessica Kiang observes in her review of Wollner’s film, it is unavoidable that the depraved aspects overshadow the nuance:

it will be a hard task to get people to mull over ancillary issues in a film destined to be shorthanded to ‘the child sex-robot movie’.

But the fact that the film departs from its paedophile storyline to explore other, less salacious forms of exploitation – such as an old woman using the android to alleviate grief – is lost.

Walking away from Salò, one is far more likely to recall the visceral horror of torture than the characters’ protracted ruminations on power, or that the film opens with an “Essential Bibliography” including works by Blanchot and Beauvoir. But these elements of the film matter, and should not be brushed aside for the sake of outrage.

Balanced distinctions

How far is too far? Legally, in Australia, this comes down to the Classification Act. Considerations when classifying include community standards, the impact of a film’s content, and the context in which this content is presented.

Classification boards look beyond a film’s synopsis to try to strike a balance between the freedom and protection of individuals. This depth of consideration is crucial: it aids a distinction between gratuity and purpose.

(While The Importance of Being Born is yet to be classified in Australia, it was approved to be shown at MIFF under a cultural exemption.)

Consider the British Board of Film Classification’s ruling on the explicit sexual imagery in Lars von Trier’s Antichrist (2009). Trier’s film was deemed permissible for audiences 18+ based on a determination that the film’s purpose was not arousal.

Rather, the board deemed Antichrist was “a serious drama exploring issues such as grief, loss, guilt and fear” and therefore the imagery, in context, was “exceptionally justified” for contributing to the film’s themes and characters.

Considered viewing

If the words “child android sex film” or “shit-eating torture flick” make your skin crawl that is a good thing. It would be more worrying if they didn’t.

Fear of confronting cinema is often linked to an assumption that movies exist only for entertainment and pleasure. Enjoyment is one response we might seek in cinema, but it is hardly the medium’s sole purpose.

Extreme films are intended to confront, disturb and provoke – and they’re certainly not for everyone.

But to censor or dismiss them outright based on our discomfort with their very premise is to preclude considered appraisal, not only of the films themselves, but also of one’s own stance on the limits of good taste or the boundaries of artistic expression.

Provided a film has been cleared legally, the question of how far is too far should be a question for individual viewers.

– ref. Boundary-pushing films are more than their clickbait headlines – https://theconversation.com/boundary-pushing-films-are-more-than-their-clickbait-headlines-144062

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Melissa Norberg, Associate Professor in Psychology, Macquarie University

As COVID-19 quarantines and lockdowns drive up psychological distress, many people have increased their screen time, including online shopping, to cope.

Like alcohol use — or overeating, watching TV or surfing the internet — online shopping doesn’t pose a problem when used as an occasional treat.

For some people, however, these behaviours can turn into habits that are hard to break.

Here’s how to know when online shopping becomes a problem and what to do if it does.

Read more: When possessions are poor substitutes for people: hoarding disorder and loneliness

How to know if it’s a problem

A behaviour becomes an addiction when at least three criteria are met:

• the behaviour is clearly excessive given its context
• it causes significant distress or impairment for the person or important people in their lives
• it persists despite not resulting in reward.

Shopping online for your weekly groceries would not usually be considered a behavioural addiction. Neither would making COVID-19 related online purchases of exercise equipment, office supplies, or masks.

However, online shopping might be considered addiction-like if you find yourself doing the following:

• spending a great deal of time shopping
• buying a lot more than you need
• finding it hard to stop shopping even though you rarely seem to enjoy the stuff you buy.

Relationship issues and financial hardship are other key clues your online shopping has become a problem.

Some people may experience online shopping problems without even spending a lot of money; just spending excessive amounts of time browsing products may be enough to warrant reflection and possibly intervention.

Read more: Psychology can explain why coronavirus drives us to panic buy. It also provides tips on how to stop

What does the research say about online shopping and addiction?

For many people, shopping can be a social or leisurely activity. It can feel good, and desires to feel good (and not bad) can get wrapped up with the desire to buy and own material possessions.

In fact, research from my (Melissa Norberg) lab suggests compulsive shopping can be associated with a feeling of being unable to deal with distress.

Problematic shopping also may occur when people attempt to compensate for an unmet psychological need, such as a need to feel competent, in control, or connected to others.

People sometimes turn to comfort products when they feel unsupported by significant others. They may buy compulsively when they feel ambivalent or confused about their sense of self.

So it’s not surprising that during the pandemic, many people report turning to online shopping to cope with significant changes to their social, work and family lives.

Australia experienced a surge in online shopping in March and April and online spending now remains well above what it was a year ago.

What to do if you want to cut back

If online shopping or browsing is interfering with your life, there are several strategies you can try.

The first is to determine what triggers your online shopping. Are you trying to feel better about yourself or relieve negative emotions such as boredom, stress or anxiety? Are you experiencing poor sleep or unhealthy eating? (If so, upsetting events might be more difficult to manage).

Is the online shopping occurring mostly at a certain time of day or in certain circumstances (after a glass or two of wine, after scrolling social media or when you’re lying in bed at the end of a long day, for example?)

Next, try to figure out if there are other, more effective ways you can respond to whatever is triggering your excessive shopping.

If you tend to react impulsively to situations, practise identifying your urge to respond and then sitting with that discomfort so that you can choose a less impulsive and more productive or fulfilling response. Being able to tolerate negative emotions and respond flexibly to stressful situations is associated with healthier outcomes.

Chatting on the phone (or by text) with a friend, doing a peaceful activity (taking a bath, reading a book), exercising, or practising a hobby can help you to feel supported, relaxed, and talented. These activities also can lessen anxiety and depression.

Once you determine what you can do instead of shopping, develop a daily schedule. Having a schedule will help you feel more in control of your life and reduce the time available to shop online.

Try to set goals and monitor your shopping behaviour.

You can also try to:

• make shopping lists (and stick to them) when buying groceries and other essential items
• set a timer to limit how long you browse
• set constraints on how much you spend
• if possible, use debit cards instead of credit cards so you can only spend money you have
• steer clear of “buy now, pay later” services such as Afterpay
• if you have multiple credit cards, consider closing them to limit your ability to spend money you don’t have.

And don’t forget to reward yourself (with something other than shopping) when you meet your goals.

Research has found these strategies can help people reduce their compulsive shopping.

If you have trouble reducing your shopping behaviour on your own, seek help from a professional. If you visit your GP, they can refer you to a specialist and provide you with a mental health care plan, which entitles you to Medicare rebates for up to 10 individual and 10 group appointments with some mental health services in a year.

If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.

– ref. How to know if your online shopping habit is a problem — and what to do if it is – https://theconversation.com/how-to-know-if-your-online-shopping-habit-is-a-problem-and-what-to-do-if-it-is-143969

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Giselle Bastin, Associate Professor of English, Flinders University

A new book about the Duke and Duchess of Sussex is generating sensational headlines about their private life, defiance of Queen Elizabeth and how Prince William “behaved like a snob” to his future sister-in-law.

It is also the latest foray of British royals into the minefield that is royal biography.

Finding Freedom: Harry and Meghan and the Making of a Modern Royal Family, by royal reporters Omid Scobie and Carolyn Durand, promises stories about how the royal couple has struggled with “the many rumours and misconceptions that [have] plagued” them since their 2017 engagement.

According to numerous reports, this also includes tales of their clashes with palace officials and members of their own families, as well as their courtship and ill-treatment by the British press.

A spokesperson for the couple has firmly said they “did not contribute to ‘Finding Freedom’”. But there is widespread speculation Harry and Meghan were nevertheless involved, given the level of detail in the book.

According to the publishers, HarperCollins, the biography has been produced with “unique access and written with the participation of those closest to the couple”.

‘Never explain, never complain’

We’ve seen this before, and it is a tale that seldom ends happily or well. In 1976, John Wheeler-Bennett, official biographer of George VI, observed royal biography is

not to be entered into advisedly or lightly; but reverently, discreetly, advisedly, soberly and in the fear of God.

Wheeler-Bennett was here referring to the role of the royal biographer, but could just as easily have been referring to the royals themselves.

The royals are not supposed to go on the record and speak of private matters. The dictum ruling the House of Windsor for the best part of the 19th and 20th centuries was they should “never explain, never complain”.

In 1947, when hearing of a former servant’s plans to write about her time in royal service, the Queen Mother summed up the royal family’s strong expectations when she said:

people in positions of confidence with us must be utterly oyster.

Subsequently, the royal family was dismayed when the Duke of Windsor fed his story to a ghostwriter in 1951’s A King’s Story, outlining his own version of the abdication crisis. Prince Philip also disapproved strongly of Prince Charles’s candid revelations in Jonathan Dimbleby’s 1994 book Prince of Wales: A Biography and subsequent interview.

Diana’s experience

Prince Harry could also have learned some valuable lessons from his own mother, who flouted the “utterly oyster” rule.

Diana, Princess of Wales, was behind the most famous royal biography of all time when she commissioned Andrew Morton to “ghost” her tale of marital woe and royal suffering with the 1992 tell-all Diana: Her True Story.

Her True Story was a huge commercial success – having sold more than ten million copies as of 2017. But after the book’s publication, Buckingham Palace and conservative media outlets went after Morton, expressing disbelief a royal princess would talk to a tabloid journalist with no official royal biographer status.

After publicly eviscerating Morton, and the airing of Diana’s explosive 1995 Panorama interview, the palace and establishment then went after Diana. Conservative MP and close friend of Prince Charles, Nicholas Soames, claimed she must have been “in the advanced stages of paranoia” to have been disclosing the types of things she had.

Read more: Diana revived the monarchy – and airing old tapes won’t change a thing

‘Her True Story’ backfires

Diana thought Her True Story would act as a passport to freedom. She hoped it would help her separate from the royals, while keeping her privileges intact. As journalist Tina Brown wrote in her 2007 book, The Diana Chronicles, the princess thought she would get to keep all

the good bits of being a princess and doing her own global thing without Charles around to cramp her style. She did not factor in the power of royal disapproval and its consequences.

Nor did she factor in “the risk of … the Palace ‘going nuclear’ and continuing until there [is] nothing left”.

Critically, Diana had thought the revelations in Her True Story would invite her estranged royal relations’ sympathy. As Brown also notes,

she had been so long in her private panic room she thought this deafening public scream would solve the matter once and for all.

Brown records how Diana quickly regretted the book, telling her friend David Puttnam shortly before the book’s release in 1992,

I’ve done a really stupid thing. I have allowed a book to be written. I felt it was a good idea, a way of clearing the air, but now I think it was a very stupid thing that will cause all kinds of terrible trouble.

Diana was right. The biography and the Panorama interview hastened Diana’s exit from the royal enclosure. This gave her a short spell of relief and exultation. But this was followed by unhappiness that she had to live, in effect, in exile.

A long-running soap

With release of another sensational royal biography – that very much gives one side of the story – the parallels between Diana and her son are uncanny.

Harry and Meghan obviously already have a rocky relationship with the palace, given their split with the royal family in March.

Their latest public pronouncement about their “true story” (albeit via interlocutors) is the latest salvo being fired in the long-running soap opera known as “The Windsors”. It has obviously been made to try to win a public relations war. Indeed, public relations is what the royals do. They don’t have “jobs” as such, but merely have to be “seen to be”.

Finding Freedom might have felt like a good idea to the Sussexes — an opportunity to set the record straight – but as Diana’s experience suggests, they may well come to regret the opening of their particular oyster of royal rage.

Their contribution of yet another chapter to the Windsor soap is one that will likely prove unstoppable, insatiable even. And one thing is almost certain: Harry and Meghan will very probably lose any editorial control they thought they had over their own story.

Read more: The Crown series 3 review: Olivia Colman shines as an older, frumpier Elizabeth

– ref. ‘Finding Freedom’: the new Harry and Meghan book is the latest, risky move in a royal PR war – https://theconversation.com/finding-freedom-the-new-harry-and-meghan-book-is-the-latest-risky-move-in-a-royal-pr-war-144090

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bryan Cranston, Academic Teacher, Swinburne University of Technology

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has announced Kamala Harris as his running mate for the 2020 election — the first woman of colour to appear on a major party ticket.

On the 100th anniversary of the ratification of the 19th amendment of the US constitution, which granted women the right to vote, Harris also becomes the third woman to be selected as a major party vice presidential candidate after Geraldine Ferraro in 1984 and Sarah Palin in 2008.

With less than 90 days until the election, Harris’s selection is bound to excite many Democratic voters and bring intense scrutiny from President Donald Trump and his Republican supporters. Here’s what she can bring to the Biden campaign and where it goes from here.

Who is Kamala Harris?

The 55-year-old Harris is the middle-class daughter of an Indian-born endocrinologist and a Jamaican-born economics professor. She was raised in Berkeley, California, and Montreal, Canada.

As she described during the Democratic presidential primary debates, Harris was part of the Civil Rights-era school bussing program as a child, which involved African American students being driven long distances to a previously segregated school.

This was a point of attack she used during the debates against Biden, whom she said opposed bussing when he was a senator in the 1970s.

In 2003, Harris was elected district attorney of San Francisco, and after adopting a tough-on-crime approach that saw the rate of felony convictions rise from 50% to 76%, she was re-elected unopposed four years later.

In 2010, Harris won her first statewide election as attorney-general of California and after being re-elected in 2014, she won a landslide election to the US Senate in 2016.

Harris is married to attorney Douglas Emhoff and is step-mother to his two children.

Harris brings several credentials to the campaign. As the first woman and first African American ever elected as San Francisco district attorney and California attorney-general — as well as the first African American elected to the US Senate from the state — Harris has been a trailblazer for both women and African Americans.

She also has first-hand experience with government policy aimed at addressing racial inequality in education.

She will almost certainly be called the “law and order” candidate, and as has been seen in the Senate, her courtroom experience makes her a formidable public speaker.

What does Harris bring to the campaign?

There are two groups of voters that Biden needs to win over: whites and non-voters.

During the 2016 presidential election, the PEW Research Centre found that 54% of female voters voted for Hillary Clinton, compared to 38% who voted for Trump.

A look at the deeper demographic data shows 98% of black women and 81% of black men voted for Clinton, as did 66% of Hispanics.

What this means is that without a black or Hispanic candidate on the 2016 ticket, the Democrats still overwhelmingly won those voters. The campaign needs to win over more white voters and non-voters.

Just 39% of whites voted for Clinton overall in 2016, with white men choosing Trump by a wide margin (62-32%). Clinton fared slightly better among white women, but more still voted for Trump (47-45%)

In May, Biden pledged to name a woman as his running mate, and following the nationwide protests sparked by the police killing of George Floyd, he came under immense pressure to choose a Black woman.

Read more: With Harris pick, Biden reaches out to young Black Americans

Faced with a diametric decision, Biden’s selection of Harris tells us his campaign has decided to focus on winning over non-voters. Non-voters are generally less white, younger and more likely to be women and favourable to Democrats.

Biden may bring in more white voters than Clinton anyway, given his background. Part of his appeal has long been his image as a “regular Joe” from a working-class upbringing. Where Barack Obama was sometimes viewed as aloof, Biden, his vice president, was seen by many as a link to the Democratic Party’s blue-collar roots.

Choosing which group of voters to target is always a gamble, however, because as we saw in 2016, Trump does not need to secure the most votes to win the election. The New York Times has suggested he could lose the popular vote by an even bigger margin in 2020 and still win.

Where does the campaign go from here?

By having a woman on its last two presidential tickets, the Democratic party is continuing its progressive political shift from the domain of white men — in contrast with Republicans.

Vice presidential candidates have traditionally assumed the attack role in campaigns, allowing the presidential candidate to stay above the political fray, but Trump changed that.

This campaign will be all about Trump, and much of Harris’s focus — and her prosecutorial combativeness — will be aimed at him.

This could prove challenging for the campaign, because as a woman, Harris will be held to a different standard than Trump, Biden and Vice President Mike Pence. Her greatest challenge could be to overcome any backlash that comes from being too aggressive in her attacks against Trump — similar to what Clinton faced in 2016 — as well as the inevitable sexist media coverage about her clothes, appearance and demeanour.

Read more: Joe Biden has a long list of qualified female VP candidates. So, who will he pick?

Perhaps Harris’s greatest attribute — and her biggest contribution to the ticket — is her experience. The biggest criticism of John McCain’s selection of Palin as his running mate in 2008 was that she was not ready to assume the presidency if needed.

Few people will doubt Harris’s capacity to do that should the need arise. And with 77-year-old Biden himself suggesting he may only serve a single term, his vice president could very well become the Democratic front-runner in 2024.

Trump supporters are unwavering, though. Those who will vote for him on election day decided that a long time ago.

Harris will be tasked with endearing herself to voters who usually vote Republican but do not support Trump, encouraging them to vote for her party rather than stay home on election day.

Harris is arguably the most formidable vice presidential nominee Biden could have chosen, and is undoubtedly the most experienced woman ever chosen for a vice presidential nominee.

Despite the initial excitement around their selections, Ferraro and Palin were regarded as significant factors in the losses by the Democrats in 1984 and the Republicans in 2008, respectively.

Now, Biden has to hope his pick proves to be a winning one.

Read more: Before Kamala Harris became Biden’s running mate, Shirley Chisholm and other Black women aimed for the White House

– ref. Who is Kamala Harris, Joe Biden’s pick for vice president? – https://theconversation.com/who-is-kamala-harris-joe-bidens-pick-for-vice-president-144122

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jason Weismueller, Doctoral Researcher, University of Western Australia

In February, major social media platforms attended a meeting hosted by the World Health Organisation to address coronavirus misinformation. The aim was to catalyse the fight against what the United Nations has called an “infodemic”.

Usually, misinformation is focused on specific regions and topics. But COVID-19 is different. For what seems like the first time, both misinformation and fact-checking behaviours are coordinated around a common set of narratives the world over.

In our research, we identified the key trends in both coronavirus misinformation and fact-checking efforts. Using Google’s Fact Check Explorer computing interface we tracked fact-check posts from January to July – with the first checks appearing as early as January 22.

A uniform rate of growth

Our research found the volume of fact-checks on coronavirus misinformation increased steadily in the early stages of the virus’s spread (January and February) and then increased sharply in March and April – when the virus started to spread globally.

Interestingly, we found the same pattern of gradual and then sudden increase even after dividing fact-checks into Spanish, Hindi, Indonesian and Portuguese.

Thus, misinformation and subsequent fact-checking efforts trended in a similar way right across the globe. This is a unique feature of COVID-19.

According to our analysis, there has been no equivalent global trend for other issues such as elections, terrorism, police activity or immigration.

Different nations, different misconceptions

On March 16, the Empirical Studies of Conflict Project, in collaboration with Microsoft Research, began cataloguing COVID-19 misinformation.

It did this by collating news articles with reporting by a wide range of local fact-checking networks and global groups such as Agence France-Presse and NewsGuard.

We analysed this data set to explore the evolution of specific COVID-19 narratives, with “narrative” referring to the type of story a piece of misinformation pushes.

For instance, one misinformation narrative concerns the “origin of the virus”. This includes the false claim the virus jumped to humans as a result of someone eating bat soup.

Read more: The Conversation’s FactCheck granted accreditation by International Fact-Checking Network at Poynter

We found the most common narrative worldwide was related to “emergency responses”. These stories reported false information about government or political responses to fighting the virus’s outbreak.

This may be because, unlike narratives surrounding the “nature of the virus”, it is easy to speculate on (and hard to prove) whether people in power have good or ill intent.

Notably, this was also the most common narrative in the US, with an early example being a false rumour the New York Police Department would immediately lock down New York City.

What’s more, a major motivation for spreading misinformation on social media is politics. The US is a polarised political environment, so this might help explain the trend towards political misinformation.

We also found China has more misinformation narratives than any other country. This may be because China is the world’s most populous country.

However, it’s worth noting the main fact-checking website used by the Empirical Studies of Conflict Project for misinformation coming out of China is run by the Chinese Communist Party.

When fighting misinformation, it is important to have as wide a range of independent and transparent fact-checkers as possible. This reduces the potential for bias.

Hydroxychloroquine and other (non) ‘cures’

Another set of misinformation narratives was focused on “false cures” or “false preventative measures”. This was among the most common themes in both China and Australia.

One example was a video that went viral on social media suggesting hydroxychloroquine is an effective coronavirus treatment. This is despite experts stating it is not a proven COVID-19 treatment, and can actually have harmful side effects.

Myths about the “nature of the virus” were also common. These referred to specific characteristics of the virus – such as that it can’t spread on surfaces. We know this isn’t true.

Read more: We know how long coronavirus survives on surfaces. Here’s what it means for handling money, food and more

Narratives reflect world events

Our analysis found different narratives peaked at different stages of the virus’s spread.

Misinformation about the nature of the virus was prevalent during the outbreak’s early stages, probably spurred by an initial lack of scientific research regarding the nature of the virus.

In contrast, theories relating to emergency responses surfaced later and remain even now, as governments continue to implement measures to fight COVID-19’s spread.

A wide variety of fact-checkers

We also identified greater diversity in websites fact-checking COVID-19 misinformation, compared to those investigating other topics.

Since January, only 25% of 6,000 fact-check posts or articles were published by the top five fact-checking websites (ranked by number of posts). In comparison, 68% of 3,000 climate change fact-checks were published by the top five websites.

Read more: 5 ways to help stop the ‘infodemic,’ the increasing misinformation about coronavirus

It seems resources previously devoted to a wide range of topics are now honing in on coronavirus misinformation. Nonetheless, it’s impossible to know the total volume of this content online.

For now, the best defence is for governments and online platforms to increase awareness about false claims and build on the robust fact-checking infrastructures at our disposal.

– ref. Coronavirus misinformation is a global issue, but which myth you fall for likely depends on where you live – https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-misinformation-is-a-global-issue-but-which-myth-you-fall-for-likely-depends-on-where-you-live-143352

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chris Salisbury, Research Associate, School of Political Science & International Studies, The University of Queensland

Government responses to COVID-19 in Australia have received, by and large, bipartisan support. An exception, it seems, is the imposition of restrictions on interstate movement. State borders have become a lightning rod for political friction and feverish commentary. With elections in the frame, this has escalated into apparent “border wars”.

Going hard on borders

The latest salvos follow alarming coronavirus outbreaks in Victoria and, in lesser numbers, Greater Sydney.

After partially reopening Queensland’s borders mere weeks ago, Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk surprised some by reimposing a “hard” border closure effective from the weekend. As case numbers ballooned in Melbourne and instances occurred of infected returning travellers “breaching” quarantine measures, many Queenslanders anticipated toughened restrictions – and indeed welcomed them.

Read more: Naming and shaming two young women shows the only ‘enemies of the state’ are the media

It should be remembered that the Queensland government’s generally successful handling of the pandemic crisis, including its readiness to close borders, enjoys broad approval. Some wondered why this latest border closure extended to the ACT as well, where there are no active cases.

But a hard line on borders to effectively “put Queenslanders’ health first” is a popular move. Support for the closures even came from a possibly unexpected source in Gold Coast Mayor Tom Tate. Amid heightened anxiety, residents here will take comfort from the seeming security of “fortress Queensland”.

Election fever in the air

In Queensland, pandemic conditions currently favour the incumbent premier – in stark comparison to Daniel Andrews’s situation in Victoria. With community transmission largely under control, Palaszczuk has played a steady hand in easing lockdown restrictions, informed by her chief health officer’s advice.

While impacts on the state’s economy and unemployment levels remain worrying – and potentially politically damaging – everything is viewed through the prism of the government’s ability to manage the crisis. These circumstances seemingly lend themselves to taking an “abundance” of caution.

Read more: View from The Hill: With an abundance of caution, Palaszczuk puts out the unwelcome mat to Sydneysiders

This has in turn invited criticism from some business quarters, but it’s an approach that suits both the times and the premier’s style.

A recent coronavirus outbreak in Brisbane’s south tested the premier’s leadership and her government’s responsiveness, providing a reminder of the disease’s unpredictability. Subsequently, taking a resolute stance on border measures, in defiance especially of naysayers from southern states and Canberra, will only boost Palaszczuk’s standing in her (often parochial) home state. With an election less than 12 weeks away, there are, variously, more rewards than risks in unapologetically prioritising the protection of Queenslanders’ health.

But as that election nears, both the premier and her LNP counterpart, Deb Frecklington, will look to turn circumstances more clearly to their political advantage. Opinion polls show the LNP holding a slim two-party-preferred lead – yet, perhaps significantly, Palaszczuk has a distinct lead as voters’ preferred premier.

The premier adopting a position of ‘strength’

Many in Queensland see Palaszczuk as personable and a “safe pair of hands”. This reassuring attribute might be well suited to these uncertain times.

With Palaszczuk’s leadership stocks running high, Queensland voters can anticipate a presidential-style election campaign come October. Messaging has already surfaced singling out Palaszczuk as a “strong premier”, suggesting she’s the leader to make “strong decisions”. But Labor may well tread this path warily, remembering what befell Campbell Newman, the last Queensland premier who campaigned relentlessly on “strong” characteristics.

Read more: Coalition maintains Newspoll lead federally and in Queensland; Biden’s lead over Trump narrows

Admittedly, accentuating “strength” counters claims of being indecisive or too cautious, critiques that have dogged Palaszczuk’s leadership until now. This approach could work well politically, so long as events – or potentially the federal government – don’t turn against the premier’s handling of the pandemic. If there’s a heightened element to the crisis in coming weeks, the situation could reverse quickly for Palaszczuk’s government, leaving the premier wearing much of the blow-back.

Even Anna Bligh’s much-lauded leadership during the destructive 2010-11 cyclones and floods in Queensland didn’t translate to a long-term boost in support. But the looming state election is a more short-term prospect. The pandemic will remain front and centre, with Palaszczuk’s crisis management still very much in the spotlight.

When to oppose in opposition?

The spread of COVID-19 has presented a political challenge for the opposition in Queensland.

The LNP’s past criticism of the Palaszczuk government over the state’s border closure has come back to bite it. Echoing their leader, throughout June several LNP MPs (supported by the prime minister no less) called repeatedly for the border’s reopening. Events since, understandably, have forced an about-face from LNP figures. They’re now advocating “tougher” border measures at the risk of appearing inconsistent.

Regardless, the opposition finds itself – ironically – having to be cautious about the limits of striking a point of difference. This much is obvious in Frecklington’s newly struck tone of resigned consensus with the government’s border position. This is a bind opposition parties are experiencing nationwide, a hard reality especially in states and territories with elections nearing.

The LNP, having gambled on criticising the government’s border restrictions, now wears the fallout. Labor has pounced on the opportunity, in early signs of a de facto election campaign. Social media posts have highlighted how Frecklington – who’s had to endure her own party’s turmoil of late – called for Queensland’s borders to be opened “early” on dozens of occasions.

Queenslanders can expect to be reminded of this “rashness” from now until the election. The LNP, meanwhile, must identify issues not necessarily coronavirus-related – such as law and order or water security in regional Queensland – to provide it some campaign cut-through.

Palaszczuk in the driver’s seat

Notably, for ten of the past 13 years, a woman has been premier of Queensland. Whichever major party wins October’s election, a woman will be leader for (likely) a further four years. With Palaszczuk emphasising – in the face of LNP criticisms – that “the lady’s not for turning” from her border stance, she gives herself every chance to remain that leader.

– ref. Did someone say ‘election’?: how politics met pandemic to create ‘fortress Queensland’ – https://theconversation.com/did-someone-say-election-how-politics-met-pandemic-to-create-fortress-queensland-144067

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert Hoffmann, Professor of Economics and Chair of Behavioural Business Lab, RMIT University

Fingers have been pointing all over the place as the country searches for answers to the stubbornly high coronavirus cases and rising death rates in Victoria.

While Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has been fronting an increasingly hostile media — as well as a parliamentary inquiry looking into the state’s handling of the pandemic — the federal government has been under fire for its neglect of the aged care sector.

At the same time, Andrews has frequently chastised the Victorian public for not following the rules of social distancing and mask wearing.

Amid all the rancour, it’s worth asking, why are we so quick to assign blame during a crisis, particularly to those in positions of power? And could doing so be counterproductive if the government starts to lose credibility in the public’s eye?

Scapegoating has a long history

As the folklorist Jon D. Lee explains in his book, An Epidemic of Rumors, blame is a normal reaction to epidemics or other calamities. Fear activates powerful psychological mechanisms that allow us to cope. And blaming others is a common coping strategy.

It is not just those in authority who bear the brunt of scapegoating. Foreign powers, unseen conspiracies and minorities have all become targets in the past. During the bubonic plague in the 14th century, Jews faced persecution as the supposed carriers. More recently, older women in Tanzania were accused of witchcraft during a period of extreme drought.

Read more: Tensions rise on coronavirus handling as the media take control of the accountability narrative

In the current COVID-19 crisis, our own marginalised groups have been targeted. The temporary contract workers employed as security guards in the hotel quarantine program and young Queensland women who dodged mandatory quarantine are recent examples of this kind of scapegoating. Asian Australians have also been taunted, threatened and spat on.

But in Victoria, the government has become the main villain. COVID-19 has come at a time when trust in government has never been lower. As a result, compared to other countries and other times in our history, government has become an easy target.

Why do we feel the need to point the finger?

Some of the reasons are entirely justified and well-intentioned. Freedom of expression, for example, is an essential part of functioning democracies. Our institutions can only remain strong and effective as long as people stay engaged in public life — and hold the powerful to account.

The World Bank has also listed “voice and accountability” as one of six dimensions it examines as part of its worldwide governance index. The index looks at the perception of citizen engagement in selecting their government, as well as freedom of expression, association and media.

The management of the pandemic has highlighted weak and strong governance systems around the world. Norway and New Zealand rank at the top of the “voice and accountability” index, so it’s no surprise they have received high praise for their COVID-19 responses. Australia is also very high, in 10th position.

Other countries that have not done so well on the pandemic are further down the list. The US is 37th and Brazil is 74th.

When done in the right way, casting blame also has an important social function. Holding perceived transgressors, including those in positions of power, to account for their failures and mistakes reinforces society’s rules and acts as a deterrent against those who would flout them.

Blame can alleviate stress, grief and guilt

Blaming is also a normal psychological process that allows individuals to manage stress and fear when faced with life-threatening upheavals.

One of the most powerful human needs is to feel we have some sense of control over our environment – and COVID-19 has undermined this in spectacular fashion.

Control includes the ability to explain why things happen. And pointing fingers at an easy scapegoat, such as the government, can sometimes provide the answers we need to regain control.

Read more: Can Victorians stick to the stage 4 rules? Our perception of what others are doing might be the key

Loss of control is also frequently accompanied by grief. In psychiatrist Elisabeth Kübler-Ross’ famous “five stages of grief” from the 1960s, anger is identified as one of the emotions people need to confront in the grieving process. And anger is often associated with finger pointing.

As Kübler-Ross’s collaborator, David Kessler, said this year, people are grieving in a completely new way due to the coronavirus, and part of this is manifested through anger at authority figures, as in, “you’re making me stay home and taking away my activities”.

This is a normal emotion, but one that people need to get past:

You can also think about how to let go of what you can’t control. What your neighbour is doing is out of your control. What is in your control is staying six feet away from them and washing your hands.

Some people may also feel partly responsible for Australia’s inability to contain COVID-19, yet unable to personally make a difference.

Blame helps reconcile these feelings. If someone else is at fault for the pandemic spiralling out of control — for instance, our leaders — that absolves the rest of us from blame and the burden of responsibility.

When blame strips the government of credibility

Rallying around a common cause, even an innocent scapegoat, can bring people together. But this should never be a reason to participate in a witch hunt. Generations of wrongly blamed minorities are a powerful reminder of how social injustice can become entrenched.

More important is to hold those in power to account through social activism, as epidemiologist Jonathan Quick argues in the End of Epidemics. Bureaucracies can suffer from inertia, he argues, and ignore the long-term strategies needed to make us better prepared in the future.

But a government that has lost credibility because of unjustified finger-pointing will struggle to marshal the collective resources needed to effectively fight the pandemic.

Research shows credibility is hugely important when it comes to the power of persuasion — and this is the main lever the government has right now to get people to behave the right way.

Previous pandemics have seen riots and civil unrest. In his book The Psychology of Pandemics, Steven Taylor describes how health professionals and local officials were attacked when visiting communities in Africa and Asia during the Ebola and SARS outbreaks. He argues civil disobedience happens when people share a belief that the authorities are to blame in some way.

We have not yet reached that stage in Victoria, despite the public outrage over the government’s missteps.

The reasons for the pandemic are complex and evolving. No simple scapegoating narrative can change that. But if we hold onto anger and continue to point fingers, it could prevent society from doing what is necessary to win the fight.

– ref. Playing the COVID-19 blame game may feel good, but it could come at a cost — the government’s credibility – https://theconversation.com/playing-the-covid-19-blame-game-may-feel-good-but-it-could-come-at-a-cost-the-governments-credibility-144120

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ali Lakhani, Senior Lecturer in Public Health, La Trobe University

Under the stage 4 restrictions enforced throughout metropolitan Melbourne, residents can exercise for one hour each day, within five kilometres of their home.

While such restrictions are necessary to reduce the spread of COVID-19, they can potentially harm people’s physical and mental well-being.

Parks are great for exercising, getting fresh air, and getting close to nature, all of which boost our physical and mental health.

Unfortunately, some Melburnians have little or no access to parkland within their permitted 5km radius, meaning they are likely to miss out on these benefits.

Space to breathe

Our map analysis looked at mesh blocks, the smallest geographical area defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, typically containing 30-60 homes.

For each mesh block zoned as residential, we tallied up the total area zoned as parkland within a 5-kilometre radius. The results are shown in the interactive map below, in which darker greens indicate a larger area of available parkland (very light green: 0-4.5 sq km; light green: 4.5-9.2 sq km; mid-green: 9.2-13.2 sq km; dark green: 13.2-19 sq km; very dark green: more than 19 sq km).

Of the 42,199 residential mesh blocks currently under stage 4 restrictions, 3,496 have between 0 and 4.5 square kilometres of parkland within 5km. This equates to about 135,000 homes or 340,000 people with little or no access to parks within their permitted area for exercising.

On average, residents in Cardinia, Mornington Peninsula and Melton have the least parkland within a 5km radius, whereas those in Knox, Yarra and Banuyle have the most.

Haves and have-nots

Our findings confirm that some Melburnians are more fortunate than others in their ability to access urban green space during stage 4 lockdown.

For those less fortunate, the state government should consider replacing the blanket 5km rule with a special provision that allows people to travel outside this radius if they would otherwise be unable to access a park.

Read more: Increasing tree cover may be like a ‘superfood’ for community mental health

Bespoke rules could also help others, such as residents with a disability or older Melburnians who use a mobility aid. While many members of these groups might have plentiful parks within their 5km radius, they may have problems accessing them. Issues can include uneven pavements, kerbs without ramps, or steeply sloped paths.

The state government could help these people by auditing public spaces to establish where structural barriers exist, and then work to remedy them. Alternatively, once again, the blanket 5km rule could be amended with a special provision that allows older Melburnians, or those with a disability, to travel outside their 5km radius to get to the most suitable nearby park.

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chris Wilkins, Associate Professor of illegal drug research, Massey University

The referendum on legalising recreational cannabis use is just over a month away. Campaigns for and against the change are well under way.

We’ve had expert reports from the Helen Clark Foundation, the Office of the Prime Minister’s Chief Science Advisor, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research and meetings around the country to discuss the likely effects of the Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill (CLCB).

So, what can be learned from other countries that have already legalised cannabis or reformed their laws? And how does New Zealand’s proposed law stack up against the overseas evidence?

What other countries have done

We recently collaborated with an international group of drug policy experts on a book looking at a range of cannabis law reforms around the world over recent decades. These include:

• cannabis coffee shops in the Netherlands

• cannabis decriminalisation in Australia

• cannabis social clubs, which began in Spain and are government-registered, non-profit organisations producing cannabis exclusively for members’ personal consumption

• full cannabis legalisation in 11 states of the US, with Colorado and Washington implementing fully commercial, alcohol-style reforms

• Canada, which allowed its provinces and territories to decide the model of legal cannabis distribution, ranging from government stores in Quebec to private retail outlets in Alberta

• the often overlooked reforms in Uruguay, where cannabis is legally available via home cultivation, social clubs and from pharmacies, with government control of production.

Evidence from profit-driven markets

There are significant time lags between law change, establishing legal cannabis markets and apparent impacts on use, dependency and mental illness. For that reason, researchers have concluded it may take ten years to fully understand the outcomes of legalisation.

However, preliminary evaluations of commercial cannabis legalisation suggest it has led to fewer arrests and significant taxes earned from sales.

At the same time, there is emerging evidence of increasing adult use and dependency, and industry influence over regulatory development.

Read more: Teen use of cannabis has dropped in New Zealand, but legalisation could make access easier

The evidence on whether legalisation has increased youth use is mixed. More research is also needed to understand the impacts on drug driving, emergency hospital admissions and treatment demand.

One of the main rationales for legalisation is that it will eliminate illegal markets and provide products of known purity and potency.

The experience in the legal cannabis states of the US, however, clearly demonstrates the challenges of developing regulatory controls of pesticides, fertilisers and product potency.

Early experience suggests legalisation can substantially reduce, but not eliminate, the black market. Legal production and competition also drive down the price of legal cannabis and therefore price-linked tax earnings.

Industry targets daily cannabis users as they are responsible for the majority of sales. Many of these users may be at risk of dependence and other harms.

On the other hand, legalisation provides opportunities to address social equity issues related to cannabis enforcement, including discrimination against minorities and disproportionate penalties.

This can even extend to expunging previous convictions and supporting cannabis business and employment in affected communities.

Finding a middle ground

It’s important not to view the legal cannabis debate as a competition between extremes – strict prohibition on the one hand and profit-driven markets on the other. Drug policy experts point to a number of middle-ground policy options that have received a lot less media and research attention.

For example, non-commercial methods of legal cannabis supply, such as home cultivation and cannabis social clubs, have proved popular in Uruguay and Spain. But there are questions about whether these will be attractive to all types of consumers.

Similarly, community trusts in New Zealand offer an alternative approach to reduce commercialisation and provide funding to local community services. Rules would be needed, though, to prevent cannabis companies from using community funding to enhance their public image and political influence.

Read more: Reforming cannabis laws is a complex challenge, but New Zealand’s history of drug reform holds important lessons

Finally, many of the key lessons from regulatory responses to alcohol and tobacco harm are highly relevant to the regulation of legal cannabis. This includes minimum pricing, limits on the density of retail outlets, plain packaging, smoke-free policies and restrictions on advertising.

State or not-for-profit monopolies for alcohol have been effective at achieving public health objectives and could be considered for legal cannabis sales.

How does the New Zealand bill stack up?

While there is much we still don’t know about the full consequences of cannabis legalisation, there is a strong case for a conservative regulatory approach that seeks to limit the adverse impacts of the new market and curtails industry power.

This makes more sense than allowing profit-driven commercialisation and then struggling to roll back the consequences, as happened with tobacco.

Much of the CLCB is broadly consistent with this restrictive approach to cannabis legalisation. It provides for government licensing of production, no advertising, plain packaging, outlet controls, excise tax based on weight and potency, and provisions for community partnerships and not-for-profit retail outlets.

Read more: Tweets about cannabis’ health benefits are full of mistruths

However, the CLCB could be strengthened with a lower potency cap, formal minimum pricing, a commitment to a high excise tax, and provisions to allow cannabis social clubs.

The recent attempt to regulate the harmful “legal high” market in New Zealand highlighted the importance of adequately resourcing regulatory agencies and enforcement, engaging with key health stakeholders and communicating policy aims to the public.

If the referendum passes, then, careful attention will be needed during implementation to ensure the law realises its harm-minimisation goals.

– ref. It could take 10 years to measure the impact of legalising weed – should New Zealand’s proposed law be even stronger? – https://theconversation.com/it-could-take-10-years-to-measure-the-impact-of-legalising-weed-should-new-zealands-proposed-law-be-even-stronger-144271

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Fernanda Alves, PhD student, Australian National University

Saving endangered species from extinction is a challenging job. It requires creative, affordable and effective interventions. In a rare good news story for conservation, we came up with one such method.

We want to save the forty-spotted pardalote – an extremely rare Tasmanian bird about the size of a ping pong ball. The few remaining individuals are at risk from an unusually harmful threat: blood-sucking fly larvae.

These parasitic flies search out the nests of pardalotes to feed on their defenceless young. The moment a pardalote chick hatches from its egg, the fly maggots burrow into its skin to drink its blood, usually killing it.

We needed a way to ward off the parasites. As our new research shows, we made one – using chicken feathers and everyday items you’d find in any hardware store. The results show that with a bit of creative thinking and expert knowledge, vulnerable species can be protected.

An imperilled songbird

Forty-spotted pardalotes are olive-green songbirds with two rows of white dots along their wings. Deforestation has caused their local extinction across much of mainland Tasmania. The birds survive mostly on islands off the east coast in numbers that vary according to habitat quality.

They forage predominantly in the foliage of white gums (Eucalyptus viminalis) for manna, a sweet crystallised form of tree sap. Many Australian birds feed on manna, but forty-spotted pardalotes are unique because they “farm” it – using their beaks to make tiny nicks in leaves and stems to stimulate manna production.

But parasitic flies are threatening the survival of these remarkable little birds. The maggots of these flies, known formally as Passeromyia longicornis, bore into exposed skin of featherless chicks and feed on their blood. Unsurprisingly, as the maggots grow fat, the chicks suffer and usually die. Small birds are killed quickly when infested with large numbers of blood-sucking maggots.

A novel solution

We wanted to find an effective way to help protect pardalotes from fly-strike. The solution also needed to be cheap, to improve the odds that land managers can help pardalotes over large areas in the long term.

Using creative thinking and our detailed knowledge of pardalotes, we devised a plan.

Read more: Birdwatching increased tenfold last lockdown. Don’t stop, it’s a huge help for bushfire recovery

Pardalotes love to make a soft, warm nest lined with stray feathers of other birds they find on the forest floor. But finding feathers is hard, time-consuming work. We decided to supply those feathers, but with an added bonus.

We took sterilised chicken feathers (available in pet stores for canaries to build their nests) and laced them with a bird-safe insecticide that would ward off the parasites. Using scrap wire, duct tape and round plastic trays (the kind used under pot plants), we built “self-service” feather dispensers and deployed them in the forests where pardalotes were building nests.

It didn’t take the pardalotes long to find this bonanza of free building materials – our dispensers were as busy as the toilet paper aisle during a pandemic! Some birds built their nests mostly out of our medicated feathers.

And now for the best part: the survival of chicks dramatically improved in the nests built with insecticide-treated feathers. On average, 95% of chicks from these birds survived, compared with only 8% of birds that used feathers without insecticide.

This more than tenfold increase in nest survival came with very little effort on our part. We just provided the feather dispensers, and the pardalotes did the rest.

Understanding the species

Parasites can become an existential threat when the populations of their hosts become very small. But it’s important to note that parasites are a natural part of the ecosystem and have their own intrinsic value. Eliminating them entirely can create unexpected new problems – and that is not our aim.

Read more: What ‘The Birdman of Wahroonga’ and other historic birdwatchers can teach us about cherishing wildlife

Passeromyia maggots have been recorded in other small birds in our study area. This means there are plenty of other more abundant host birds for the flies to feed on, without adding to the problems that endangered forty-spotted pardalotes already face.

Our work has shown that by understanding how species live, it’s possible to exploit their natural behaviour to provide targeted protection from threats such as parasites.

Combining good ecological data with clever problem-solving is a crucial skill for natural resource managers. Managing the global extinction crisis will require more innovative solutions like this.

– ref. Scientists devised a cheap, ingenious trick to save this bird from a blood-sucking maggot – and it works brilliantly – https://theconversation.com/scientists-devised-a-cheap-ingenious-trick-to-save-this-bird-from-a-blood-sucking-maggot-and-it-works-brilliantly-143900

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Krumdieck, Professor and Director, Advanced Energy and Material Systems Lab, University of Canterbury

Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change.

If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz

Geothermal electricity produces emissions but is categorised with wind and solar power as a renewable source of power. Why? Can we reduce the emissions geothermal plants produce?

Geothermal resources occur where magma has come up through the Earth’s crust at some point in the distant past and created large reservoirs of hot rock and water.

In New Zealand, the Taupo Volacanic Zone has 23 known geothermal reservoirs. Seven of these are currently used to generate more than 15% of New Zealand’s electricity supply.

Continuous but finite energy source

The geothermal reservoirs are vast in both size and stored energy. For example, the Ngatamariki reservoir extends over seven square kilometres and is more than a kilometre thick.

The geothermal resource is more consistent than hydro, solar and wind, as it doesn’t depend on the weather, but the geothermal heat in a reservoir is finite. Environment Waikato estimates that if the thermal energy in New Zealand were extracted to generate 420MW of electricity, the resource would likely last for 300 years. The current generation is more than twice this rate, so the reservoirs will last about half as long.

Geothermal energy is extracted by drilling up to 3km down into these hot zones of mineral-laden brine at 180-350℃. The engineering involves drilling a number of wells for extraction and re-injection of the brine, and the big pipes that connect the wells to the power plant.

The power plant converts the thermal energy into electricity using steam turbines. These plants generate nearly continuously and can last for more than 50 years.

Read more: New Zealand wants to build a 100% renewable electricity grid, but massive infrastructure is not the best option

Greenhouse gas emissions

The brine contains dissolved gases and minerals, depending on the minerals in the rocks the water was exposed to. Some of these are harmless, like silica which is basically sand. But some are toxic like stibnite, which is antimony and sulphur.

Some gases like carbon dioxide and methane are not poisonous, but are greenhouse gases. But some are toxic. For example, hydrogen sulfide gives geothermal features their distinctive smell. The carbon dioxide dissolved in geothermal brine normally comes from limestone, which is fossilised shells of sea creatures that lived millions of years ago.

The amount of greenhouse gas produced per kWh of electricity generated varies, depending on the reservoir characteristics. It is not well known until the wells are in production.

The New Zealand Geothermal Association reports the greenhouse gas emissions for power generation range from 21 grams CO₂ equivalent per kWh to 341gCO₂(equiv)/kWh. The average is 76gCO₂(equiv)/kWh. For comparison, fossil fuel generation emissions range from 970 to 390gCO₂(equiv)/kWh for coal and gas combined cycle plants.

The gases have to be removed from the brine to use it in the plant, so they are released to the atmosphere. The toxic gases are either diluted and released into the atmosphere, or scrubbed with other substances for disposal. The Mokai power plant supplies carbon dioxide to commercial growers who use it in glasshouses to increase the growth rate of vegetables.

Read more: Climate explained: could the world stop using fossil fuels today?

Finding ways to use less energy

All energy-conversion systems can be made better by employing engineering expertise, investing in research and enforcing regulations, and through due diligence in the management of the waste products. All energy-conversion technology has costs and consequences. No energy resource should be thought of as unlimited or free unless we use very small quantities.

New Zealand is in a period of energy transition, with a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050. The production and use of coal is already in decline globally and oil and gas are expected follow.

We tend to think about energy transition in terms of technologies to substitute “bad” energy with “green” energy. But the transition of how energy is produced and consumed will require a massively complex re-engineering of nearly everything.

The installed capacity for wind and solar has been growing over the past decade. In 2018, however, New Zealand consumption of electricity generated by wind and solar was 7.72PJ, while oil, diesel and LPG consumption was 283PJ and geothermal electricity was 27PJ. Another consideration is lifetime; wind turbines and solar panels need to be replaced at least three times during the lifetime of a geothermal power plant.

A successful energy transition will require much more R&D and due diligence on products, buildings and lifestyles that need only about 10% of the energy we use today. An energy transition to build sustainable future systems is not only possible, it is the only option.

– ref. Climate explained: why does geothermal electricity count as renewable? – https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-why-does-geothermal-electricity-count-as-renewable-143433

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Erika Martino, Research Fellow In Healthy Housing, University of Melbourne

There is a crisis within crisis accommodation. Homelessness providers struggle to meet women’s requests for accommodation under usual circumstances. During COVID-19 lockdowns the dramatic increase in domestic abuse has put an already stretched system under greater pressure.

Crisis accommodation providers were interviewed for an ongoing research project. One of them reported a six-fold increase in demand for their homelessness services from a wider range of people, “people who would not normally access the system”. Another said: “Adding the lens of COVID-19 has exacerbated this as a public health issue.”

Read more: What governments can do about the increase in family violence due to coronavirus

Many crisis accommodation providers have turned to low-end motels, but these have proven to be expensive, unhygienic, unsafe and harmful for women’s health. Women stuck in this substandard crisis accommodation are often unable to find long-term, stable and affordable housing due to lack of supply. This compromises their ability to recover from trauma and increases their risk of returning to perpetrators.

We can do better.

Opportunities in a crisis

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to distinct shifts in the supply of short-term accommodation in our cities. The number of vacant properties has increased, particularly in Australia’s two largest housing markets, Sydney and Melbourne, while rents have fallen. This has been attributed to drops in demand from international students and from travellers in the short-term Airbnb rental market.

These demand and supply trends, taken together, offer an opportunity. The two short-term housing tenures might provide an alternative to poor quality and unsafe motels and better meet the housing, social and emotional needs of women seeking crisis accommodation.

Read more: 400,000 women over 45 are at risk of homelessness in Australia

The use of vacant land and buildings for temporary housing in Australia is increasingly being tested. There are projects using government land and commercial or institutional buildings for pop-up shelters for temporary housing. It follows that crisis accommodation and community housing services might broker a marriage of convenience, taking advantage of increasing vacancies in the short-term rental market.

Potential and pitfalls

Some of the interviews with crisis accommodation and community housing providers highlighted the potential to use short-term rental housing for their service users. One interviewee observed:

[…] the benefit is that it is a home. It has a kitchen, facilities and people have independence, which can help facilitate them finding something more permanent.

In the face of COVID-19, the relationship between commercial accommodation services and community housing providers has already began to shift.

All lot of these [commercial] providers have never been open to us as homeless services […] Some of the hotels prior to COVID-19 would never have taken our money […] now we are their main source of survival”.

Anecdotally, Airbnb is already providing an informal stopgap for people in need of emergency accommodation. Some community housing providers reported Airbnb property owners contacting them about leasing their properties short-term for crisis accommodation.

Read more: As coronavirus hits holiday lettings, a shift to longer rentals could help many of us

Frustratingly, the moratorium on evictions was a complication. One provider noted:

We can’t take it because we can’t serve a notice to vacate. Even if it’s a three-month lease you’ve still got to serve a notice to vacate. How do we get the tenants out for somebody new to come? I can’t guarantee that you’re going to get your property back. Especially when it’s crisis accommodation.

Housing providers who are able to offer property management services have cited benefits for landlords such as a guaranteed income, no management fees, and maintenance services.

In turn, providers could offer better quality accommodation that can realistically support a longer stay – with wrap-around services depending on need – while they try to find more stable affordable housing in a scarce market.

One interviewee mused:

Thinking about coercive control and thinking about not just housing women and children because they’re in immediate risk of death or serious harm, it’s because they need a break from being trapped. Can you imagine six weeks in a place where they get a chance, literally, from a trauma reform perspective?

While crisis accommodation could be expanded in this way, providers need to carefully consider some real and perceived risks. Above all, they must ensure women remained safe. One provider said:

I’ve got a reservation about using [short-term rentals] for crisis accommodation. I think that’s hard. It’s possible but it’s hard because crisis accommodation is the most difficult to manage because people are at their most vulnerable.

A need to ‘reframe’ how we see housing

In anticipation of increased demand, the Victorian government announced a A$40.2 million emergency funding package for crisis accommodation. This will not be enough in the longer term.

There needs to be greater focus on the role housing can play, both in reducing COVID-19 transmission and as a broader social cure for the ills that are soon to follow. Subsidies to help crisis accommodation providers access new markets and a dramatic increase in social housing, as most housing services advocate, seem the most reasonable steps to take.

As one crisis accommodation frontline worker lamented, the current crisis system needed to be more agile to support COVID-19 adaptation and social entrepreneurship:

It’s just about doing a reframe. What’s the reframe here for people to see that this [existing infrastructure] is all transferable?

Gender-based housing inequality is hidden from view in Australia. That’s partly due to policy and practices that continue to partition family violence from broader discussions on housing affordability.

Read more: How do we keep family violence perpetrators ‘in view’ during the COVID-19 lockdown?

In the face of a projected need to house many more older, marginalised women, Australia needs to increase the available housing options. It could be through crisis accommodation or more ideally through increased long-term affordable and social housing.

These approaches not only make economic sense, but are critical to giving support agencies a much-needed lever to help make sure women are as “safe as houses”.

If you or anyone you know is experiencing domestic or family violence, call 1800 RESPECT for help at any time. If you are in immediate danger, call 000.

– ref. As demand for crisis housing soars, surely we can tap into COVID-19 vacancies – https://theconversation.com/as-demand-for-crisis-housing-soars-surely-we-can-tap-into-covid-19-vacancies-143815

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Barry Oliver, Associate Professor, The University of Queensland

Insider trading comes in two main forms: arguably legal and clearly illegal.

But, as with drugs in sport, it’s hard to tell when arguably legal ends and clearly illegal begins.

It is generally accepted that it is wrong to buy shares in the company you run when you know something about it that the market does not.

It’s especially wrong to buy shares when you are telling the market that things are much worse for the company than you know them to be.

But what about suddenly sharing everything – an avalanche of information – in the lead-up to a share purchase in order to muddy the waters and create enough uncertainty to lower the price?

Chief executives have enormous discretion over the tone and timing of the news they release, generally answering to no one.

A linguistic analysis of twelve years worth of news releases by 6764 US chief executives just published by myself and two University of Queensland colleagues in the Journal of Banking and Finance suggests they are using this discretion strategically.

Not clearly illegal (how can oversharing be illegal?) their behaviour can have the same effect as talking down their share price while buying, something that is clearly illegal.

Spreads matter, as well as signs

Earlier analyses of insider trading have looked at only the “sign” of the information released to to the share market. On balance was the tone of one month’s news releases positive or negative?

We have looked at the “spread”, the range from positive to negative as well as the net result.

It doesn’t make sense to treat as identical a month’s worth of releases which are all neutral tone in tone (sending no message) and a month’s worth of releases of which half are strongly positive and half are strongly negative (stoking uncertainty).

Our sample of discretionary (non-required) news releases is drawn from those lodged with Thomson Reuters News Analytics between January 2003 to December 2015. It includes firms listed on the New York Stock Exchange, the AMEX American Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ technology-heavy exchange.

The archive scores the tone of each release as positive, negative or neutral.

We used the Thomson Reuters Insiders Filing Database to obtain information on chief executive buying, limiting our inquiries to significant purchases of at least 100 shares.

Strategic uncertainty

About 70% of the chief executives proved to be opportunistic traders in the sense that they bought with no particular pattern, rather than at the same time every year.

We found that news releases by these chief executives increased information uncertainty by 5.8% and 3.6% in the months before they bought and in the month they bought.

In the months following their purchases, the positive to negative spread of their news releases returned to the average for non-purchase months.

The unmistakable conclusion is that their behaviour is strategic.

Read more: Insider trading is greedy, not glamorous, and it hurts us all

We obtained similar results when we used other measures of buying and the tone of news releases.

Our results provide no evidence to support the contention that chief executives behave in this strategic way when selling shares. This is consistent with other findings suggesting that the timing of sales is often out of the hands of the sellers.

Previous studies have found only weak links between executive share purchases and the news they release to the market. This might be because those studies have looked for more easily detected (and more clearly problematic) negative news releases.

Read more: To protect markets we need strict penalties for insider trading

But that’s an old and (with the advent of linguistic analysis) increasingly risky approach.

Our research suggests that by saying many things at once chief executives can achieve much the same thing.

– ref. Insider trading has become more subtle – https://theconversation.com/insider-trading-has-become-more-subtle-142981

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Frances Di Lauro, Senior Lecturer, Department of Writing Studies, University of Sydney

In the year then of our Lord 1348, there happened at Florence, the finest city in all Italy, a most terrible plague…

Giovanni Boccaccio introduces his acclaimed collection of novellas, the Decameron, with a reference to the most terrifying existential crisis of his time: the decimating effects of the bubonic plague in the 1348 outbreak known as the Black Death.

Boccaccio’s book, written between 1348 and 1353, has been acclaimed as an exemplar of vernacular literary prose, and a commentary on the “peste” that swept through Europe that year.

A classic of medieval plague literature, it continues to be cited by physicians and epidemiologists to this day for its vivid depiction of a disease that held a city under siege.

In the introduction to his book, Boccaccio estimates that more than 100,000 people – over half of the city’s inhabitants – died within the walls of Florence between March 1348 and the following July.

He vividly describes physical, social and psychological sufferings, writing of people dying in the street, rotting corpses, plague boils, swollen glands known as “buboes” – some the size of eggs, others as large as apples – bruises and the blackening skin that foreshadowed death.

Boccaccio’s introduction is followed by ten sections containing short stories. Each of the book’s ten storytellers tells a story a day for ten days. Derived from Greek, the word decameron means ten days and is an allusion to Saint Ambrose’s Hexameron, a poetic account of the creation story, Genesis, told over six days.

Read more: Guide to the Classics: Albert Camus’ The Plague

The Decameron is a tale of renewal and recreation in defiance of a decimating pandemic. Boccaccio attributes the cause of this terrible plague to either malignant celestial influences or divine punishment for the iniquity of Florentine society.

Social distancing and fragrant nose coverings

Unlike the plague of 1340 – which killed an estimated 15,000 Florentines – that of 1348 was, according to Boccaccio, far more contagious, spreading with greater vigour and speed.

It was extraordinary, in his view, that the disease did not merely spread from human to human but crossed species too. He saw two pigs dying within moments of biting infected clothing in the street.

Florentine officials removed household waste and contaminants from the city in attempts to eradicate the deadly pestilence, and banned infected people from entering.

They issued public pleas and advised residents on measures that would minimise risk of contagion, such as social distancing and increased personal hygiene.

Boccaccio, in the same introduction, takes aim at those who fled the sick to protect their own health and in doing so degraded the social fabric.

Extreme interpretations of social distancing led to people shunning neighbours and members of their extended and immediate families. In some cases, he writes, parents even deserted their children.

Read more: Guide to the Classics: how Marcus Aurelius’ Meditations can help us in a time of pandemic

While some took conservative measures – self-isolating indoors in small numbers, eating and drinking moderately and shutting out contact from the outside – others, he writes, roamed freely, gratifying their senses and meeting their desires for food, fun and sex:

…satisfying their every yearning, laughing and mocking at every mournful accident; and so they vowed to spend day and night, for they would go to one tavern, then to another, living without any rule or measure…

Others still consumed only what their bodies needed and excluded contact with the infected. But they wandered wherever they wished, carrying bunches of fragrant flowers, herbs, or spices, or wearing them across their noses in a bid to repel the infection and the offensive odour of death.

Boccaccio’s unfavourable account, lamenting moral degradation and the enormous human suffering, is interrupted by a ray of light in the form of seven young noblewomen and three young gentlemen who appear in the Church of Santa Maria Novella on a Tuesday morning.

They become the storytellers of the Decameron. Collected as a brigade (brigata), they exhibit civility, gentility, strength and a commitment to duty.

Boccaccio presents them as decorous and untarnished, having each cared for their loved ones while within the city walls. He gives each a name that suits their personal qualities, choosing monikers from his own and other literary works. They are: Pampinea, Filomena, Neifile, Filostrato, Fiammetta, Elissa, Dioneo, Lauretta, Emilia and Panfilo.

Refuge through story

At the suggestion of the eldest noblewoman, Pampinea, the brigata leave the terrible pestilence and their devastated, plague-ridden city to take refuge in a rural villa in the nearby hills.

They are not abandoning others, she assures the group, as their relatives have either died or fled. The ten pass time by partaking in banquets, playing games, dancing, singing and telling stories.

Each member of the group narrates one story every day across the following ten days, under the supervision of the elected king or queen for the day. The proceedings close with singing and a dance.

Over those ten days, the brigata tell 100 stories. In them, they name real people – historical, contemporaries and near contemporaries – who would have been recognisable to readers of the Decameron in Boccaccio’s lifetime.

This gives a semblance of reality to the stories told inside an otherwise imaginary scene. The stories reflect Boccaccio’s accounts of moral decay in Florence at the time. Corruption and debauchery abound.

Read more: Guide to the Classics: Dante’s Divine Comedy

How then do the pastimes of the brigata bring about renewal and recreation?

The Decameron situates vices within fiction and serves as a guide for preserving the mind during physical isolation. Retreating from a stricken city to live a simple life in a communal isolation, the brigata entertain each other and by following disciplined, structured rituals, recover some of the predictability and certainty that, according to Boccaccio, had been lost.

Contemporary resonances

The Decameron was the first prose masterpiece to be written in the Tuscan vernacular, making it more accessible to readers who could not read Latin. It was first distributed in manuscript form in the 1370’s and almost 200 copies were printed over the following two centuries.

The work was censured in 1564 by the Council of Trent and a “corrected” version, expunging all references to clerics, monasteries and churches, was released in 1573.

Boccaccio’s introduction to the Decameron is a frame-story – a narrative that frames another story or a collection of stories.

This form became a popular literary model for enveloping collections of short stories that blend oral storytelling and literature. Variations and borrowings are seen in Chaucer’s Canterbury Tales and Shakespeare’s All’s Well That Ends Well.

The most well-known film adaptation of the Decameron is the first of a trio of masterpieces in Pier Paolo Pasolini’s 1971 Trilogy of Life. Showcasing ten of the 100 stories in the Decameron, it remains one of Italy’s most popular films.

The Decameron will resonate with modern readers as we grapple with the horror of our own current pandemic. The book is a prescription for psychological survival, a way of mentally distancing from terrible visions, death counts and grim economic forecasts.

Although its framing events took place over 600 years ago, the Decameron’s modern readers, like Boccaccio’s brigata, will find comfort in company and optimism and a sense of certainty in the programmed rituals it describes.

Through its 100 stories, readers can vicariously experience situations that are out of their reach. They can be entertained, find lots to laugh about, and ultimately celebrate the joy and restorative powers of storytelling itself.

– ref. Guide to the Classics: Boccaccio’s Decameron, a masterpiece of plague and resilience – https://theconversation.com/guide-to-the-classics-boccaccios-decameron-a-masterpiece-of-plague-and-resilience-143437

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The Nationals are demanding major changes to the government’s controversial new higher education fee plan, declaring it would disadvantage regional communities and students as it stands.

The Nationals party room on Monday discussed the JobReady Graduates Package draft legislation – which has now been released – and agreed to press for it to be altered.

The party wants social work, behavioural science and mental health disciplines taken out of the humanities funding cluster and realigned with allied health studies.

The Nationals Minister for Decentralisation and Regional Education, Andrew Gee, who has driven the push, said given what country Australia had been through with bushfires, floods, drought and the pandemic “it is critical that regional communities have easy access to mental health services and support”, and the proposed classification would work against this.

The Nationals revolt, an embarrassment for Education Minister Dan Tehan, is another example of the minor Coalition partner asserting itself, and follows its recent win when it prevented a government appeal against a key court judgement relating to the Gillard government’s suspension of live cattle exports.

Labor’s education spokeswoman Tanya Plibersek told the ABC: “I’m gobsmacked by the fact that two ministers who share a department can’t get the legislation right before they release an exposure draft. I mean, these are two parties that are in coalition.”

The government package reduces student fees for courses in areas the government identifies as potentially job-rich and increases them for the humanities and certain other courses. It has received wide criticism.

Gee outlined the Nationals demands in a statement, thus upping the ante for the government.

He said they followed roundtables he had initiated with country universities and other stakeholders.

The party wants the grandfathering for students enrolled before January 1 next year to be indefinite, rather than only until January 1 2024.

“The Nationals have agreed that this change will ensure that part-time and online students, many of whom take over three years to complete their studies due to balancing work and family commitments, will not be disadvantaged. Many of these students reside in country areas,” Gee said.

Arguing for the removal of key courses from the humanities list, Gee said the currently proposed listing would put a number of social work, behavioural science and mental health disciplines in the most expensive cluster for students.

“We believe this would only serve to further to increase the maldistribution of mental health workers in country Australia. It also has the potential to impact women and mature students looking to upskill and move into higher paid jobs,” he said.

Regional university roundtables “revealed this to be a glaring and potentially detrimental design flaw”.

“2019 Graduate Outcomes data shows that demand for mental health support, such as social work is 10% higher in regional and remote communities – we need more country graduates to meet this demand. Country people deserve the same access to mental health support as those in the cities.

“It’s a fundamental issue of equality. That is why The Nationals believe that social work, behavioural science and mental health disciplines should be removed from the humanities funding cluster and be realigned with allied health studies,” Gee said.

“The Nationals will be seeking a change to the current Job-Ready Graduates Package funding clusters. We intend to fix this design deficiency.”

The party also wants changes to the Tertiary Access Payment (TAP). This is a planned $5000 payment for regional students who relocate to study.

Gee said there was concern its current design “will encourage country kids to leave their communities and move to the cities to study. This could result in a loss of enrolments for country universities which are already operating in thin and lean markets.”

Gee said he looked forward to working with Coalition colleagues “to ensure that all of the measures agreed to by The Nationals are incorporated into the legislation”.

– ref. Nationals revolt over the government’s proposed university fee changes – https://theconversation.com/nationals-revolt-over-the-governments-proposed-university-fee-changes-144306

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The federal government has clashed with the Royal Commission into Aged Care, strongly rejecting the claim by senior counsel assisting the inquiry Peter Rozen that it had no specific COVID-19 plan for the sector.

Aged Care Minister Richard Colbeck told a news conference: “We have had a plan to deal with COVID-19 in residential aged care, going right back to the beginnings of our preparations.

“We’ve been engaged with the sector since late January, and continuously working with the sector to ensure they have all the information they require and the support that they need in the circumstance that they might have an outbreak of COVID-19.”

Acting chief medical officer Paul Kelly said: “We have been planning for our aged population as a vulnerable group since the beginning of our planning in relation to COVID-19”. And there had been “very strong communication with the sector throughout,” he said.

Rozen, in a Monday statement at the opening of this week’s hearings on COVID in the aged care sector, said while much was done to prepare the health sector more generally for the pandemic, “neither the Commonwealth Department of Health nor the aged care regulator developed a COVID-19 plan specifically for the aged care sector”.

The sector had been underprepared, he said.

Asked whether the government’s plan had failed, Colbeck admitted there had been “some circumstances where things haven’t gone as we would like”, saying “the circumstance at St Basil’s [in Melbourne] is one, where we didn’t get it all right”.

On Wednesday the commission will take evidence from Janet Anderson, head of the Commonwealth regulator, the Aged Care Quality and Safety Commission, which Rozen said “did not have an appropriate aged care sector COVID-19 response plan”.

The government has left Anderson out to dry, after it was belatedly discovered her body was told of an outbreak at St Basil’s two days after a staffer was diagnosed, but it failed to pass on the information.

Quizzed about this, Colbeck said under the protocols, “the Commonwealth should have been advised of the outbreak on 9 July by either the Victorian health department or St Basil’s management or both. Instead it was formally informed on July 14.”

But he was also critical of the Quality and Safety Commission which was informed of the outbreak when it was speaking to the home as part of a survey about preparedness and infection control.

“The disappointing thing, from my perspective, is that the information that was gleaned … about a positive outbreak wasn’t passed on to anyone else,” Colbeck said.

“There was an assumption made … that information had already been passed on. It wasn’t.

“The gap in the supply chain, or the information chain, has now been closed. … There should not have been a hole in our systems. That’s been rectified appropriately, as it should have been.”

– ref. Government rejects Royal Commission’s claim of no aged care plan, as commission set to grill regulator – https://theconversation.com/government-rejects-royal-commissions-claim-of-no-aged-care-plan-as-commission-set-to-grill-regulator-144301