Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steven Stern, Professor of Data Science, Bond University

In 2020, Oxford-based philosopher Toby Ord published a book called The Precipice about the risk of human extinction. He put the chances of “existential catastrophe” for our species during the next century at one in six.

It’s quite a specific number, and an alarming one. The claim drew headlines at the time, and has been influential since – most recently brought up by Australian politician Andrew Leigh in a speech in Melbourne.

It’s hard to disagree with the idea we face troubling prospects over the coming decades, from climate change, nuclear weapons and bio-engineered pathogens (all big issues in my view), to rogue AI and large asteroids (which I would see as less concerning).

But what about that number? Where does it come from? And what does it really mean?

Coin flips and weather forecasts

To answer those questions, we have to answer another first: what is probability?

The most traditional view of probability is called frequentism, and derives its name from its heritage in games of dice and cards. On this view, we know there is a one in six chance a fair die will come up with a three (for example) by observing the frequency of threes in a large number of rolls.

Or consider the more complicated case of weather forecasts. What does it mean when a weatherperson tells us there is a one in six (or 17%) chance of rain tomorrow?

Read more:
The science of weather forecasting: what it takes and why it’s so hard to get right

It’s hard to believe the weatherperson means us to imagine a large collection of “tomorrows”, of which some proportion will experience precipitation. Instead, we need to look at a large number of such predictions and see what happened after them.

If the forecaster is good at their job, we should see that when they said “one in six chance of rain tomorrow”, it did in fact rain on the following day one time in every six.

So, traditional probability depends on observations and procedure. To calculate it, we need to have a collection of repeated events on which to base our estimate.

Can we learn from the Moon?

So what does this mean for the probability of human extinction? Well, such an event would be a one-off: after it happened, there would be no room for repeats.

Instead, we might find some parallel events to learn from. Indeed, in Ord’s book, he discusses a number of potential extinction events, some of which can potentially be examined in light of a history.

For example, we can estimate the chances of an extinction-sized asteroid hitting Earth by examining how many such space rocks have hit the Moon over its history. A French scientist named Jean-Marc Salotti did this in 2022, calculating the odds of an extinction-level hit in the next century at around one in 300 million.

Of course, such an estimate is fraught with uncertainty, but it is backed by something approaching an appropriate frequency calculation. Ord, by contrast, estimates the risk of extinction by asteroid at one in a million, though he does note a considerable degree of uncertainty.

A ranking system for outcomes

There is another way to think about probability, called Bayesianism after the English statistician Thomas Bayes. It focuses less on events themselves and more on what we know, expect and believe about them.

In very simple terms, we can say Bayesians see probabilities as a kind of ranking system. In this view, the specific number attached to a probability shouldn’t be taken directly, but rather compared to other probabilities to understand which outcomes are more and less likely.

Read more:
Bayes’ Theorem: the maths tool we probably use every day, but what is it?

Ord’s book, for example, contains a table of potential extinction events and his personal estimates of their probability. From a Bayesian perspective, we can view these values as relative ranks. Ord thinks extinction from an asteroid strike (one in a million) is much less likely than extinction from climate change (one in a thousand), and both are far less likely than extinction from what he calls “unaligned artificial intelligence” (one in ten).

The difficulty here is that initial estimates of Bayesian probabilities (often called “priors”) are rather subjective (for instance, I would rank the chance of AI-based extinction much lower). Traditional Bayesian reasoning moves from “priors” to “posteriors” by again incorporating observational evidence of relevant outcomes to “update” probability values.

And once again, outcomes relevant to the probability of human extinction are thin on the ground.

Subjective estimates

There are two ways to think about the accuracy and usefulness of probability calculations: calibration and discrimination.

Calibration is the correctness of the actual values of the probabilities. We can’t determine this without appropriate observational information. Discrimination, on the other hand, simply refers to the relative rankings.

Read more:
Longtermism – why the million-year philosophy can’t be ignored

We don’t have a basis to think Ord’s values are properly calibrated. Of course, this is not likely to be his intent. He himself indicates they are mostly designed to give “order of magnitude” indications.

Even so, without any related observational confirmation, most of these estimates simply remain in the subjective domain of prior probabilities.

Not well calibrated – but perhaps still useful

So what are we to make of “one in six”? Experience suggests most people have a less than perfect understanding of probability (as evidenced by, among other things, the ongoing volume of lottery ticket sales). In this environment, if you’re making an argument in public, an estimate of “probability” doesn’t necessarily need to be well calibrated – it just needs to have the right sort of psychological impact.

From this perspective, I’d say “one in six” fits the bill nicely. “One in 100” might feel small enough to ignore, while “one in three” might drive panic or be dismissed as apocalyptic raving.

As a person concerned about the future, I hope risks like climate change and nuclear proliferation get the attention they deserve. But as a data scientist, I hope the careless use of probability gets left by the wayside and is replaced by widespread education on its true meaning and appropriate usage.

Read more:
433 people win a lottery jackpot – impossible? Probability and psychology suggest it’s more likely than you’d think

Steven Stern does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Is there really a 1 in 6 chance of human extinction this century? – https://theconversation.com/is-there-really-a-1-in-6-chance-of-human-extinction-this-century-215054

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Abby Foster, Allied Health Research Advisor, Monash Health; Adjunct senior lecturer, La Trobe University; Adjunct research fellow, School of Primary & Allied Health Care, Monash University

The Royal Commission into Violence, Abuse, Neglect and Exploitation of People with Disability has shared its final report. In this series, we unpack what the commission’s 222 recommendations could mean for a more inclusive Australia.

With the release of the disability royal commission’s final report, the harrowing treatment of people with disabilities in Australia has been starkly displayed.

Just prior to the report’s release, media reports about abuse and neglect prompted National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) commissioner Tracy Mackey to say anyone on the scheme who is concerned about the care they’re receiving and doesn’t have someone to advocate for them should get in touch with the scheme’s quality and safety commission.

But this fails to acknowledge the systemic barriers people with communication disability face. For many, picking up the phone or completing an online form without support is not possible.

Communication is a human right

As part of the United Nations’ Declaration of Human Rights, everyone has the “right to freedom of opinion and expression”.

Acknowledging this, the disability royal commission made specific recommendations around enabling autonomy and access through “communication access”. Acknowledging that failure to do so can lead to poor health, education, employment and justice outcomes, with increased risk of harm during emergencies and natural disasters.

Communication access is necessary for everyone in society, but especially for the 1.2 million Australians who live with a communication disability.

Read more:
Here’s why we need a disability rights act – not just a disability discrimination one

But what does ‘communication access’ mean?

Communication is enormously diverse. We use spoken, written and sign language, gesture, pictorial and digital forms, facial expression, vocalisation, and physical expression to convey meaning. Through these, we can communicate our needs, thoughts and concerns.

Critically, the success of any communicative attempt requires the communication form to be acknowledged, valued and supported. Our environment has a profound impact on how successful communication is – irrespective of a person’s abilities or impairments.

Over the last 40 years we have witnessed a significant shift in attitudes towards people with disability in Australia. There is now legal entitlement for “people with disability to exercise choice and control”.

An independent review of the NDIS is due to report by the end of this month with pressure on costs and growth to ensure sustainability. But enabling people to communicate and exercise choice demands we design and resource accessible communication environments.

What’s it like to live with a communication disability?

Every day, people experience barriers to receiving and sharing information. These barriers can affect how they engage in meaningful interactions and how safe they feel. Inadequate communication accommodations can lead to difficulties accessing health care, using public transport, even ordering a coffee.

The disability royal commission exposed failures that have caused immense harm. The agency of people living with communication disability has not been respected, with devastating consequences.

Communication barriers exist within the context of high rates of abuse, violence and deprivation of basic needs, including food, shelter, or assistive aids. These rates are almost double those reported for people living without disability.

Read more:
The disability royal commission heard horrific stories of harm – now we must move towards repair

What is communication access?

Communication access occurs when everyone can meaningfully access information and get their message across. The commission called it “a critical safeguard against violence, abuse, neglect and exploitation”.

Yet common approaches to communication accessibility – including those used by government bodies such as the National Disability Insurance Agency (which administers the NDIS) – have limited value.

The commonly applied Easy Read format – which combines text with layout and imagery to explain information – for example, lacks standardised design principles. It is only useful for supporting specific groups.

Universal design principles go someway in supporting agency for people with communication disability. These principles aim to recognise, value and accommodate a broad range of users of specific products or environments. But tailored attention to individual communicative requirements is essential too.

Read more:
Banning straws might be good for the planet – but bad for people with disability or swallowing problems. What is ‘eco-ableism’?

What should happen next?

There have been calls to enhance communication access for many years. While the commission’s recommendations are an important step, the real challenge lies ahead.

The government taskforce charged with acting on the commission’s recommendations should begin by acknowledging the expertise of people with communicative disability.

Co-design is a core tenet of the NDIS; however, people with communication disabilities are frequently excluded from sharing their perspectives. So governments need to look for ways to make co-design communicatively accessible. This must include engaging with multiple modes of communication, including visual aids, key words, augmentative communication, and physical forms of expression. People with communication disability must play a central role in all stages of the policy design process: as informants, design partners and users.

NDIS funding models must cover making a person’s support and service network an accessible communication environment. People with communication disability tell us that time, sustained engagement and relationship building are essential. While strategies are person-specific, practical considerations include ensuring access to assistive equipment and devices, providing choices, checking own understanding, and paying attention to non-verbal communication.

The costs of doing so are offset by the economic value of better health and well-being, employment, education, health, leisure and access to justice.

As the disability royal commission showed, poor oversight has resulted in significant harm, with inadequate safety and incident reporting measures that have translated to increased risk for people experiencing barriers to communicating their concerns.

At a minimum, communication access standards should ensure disability providers have base-level skills to recognise and support diverse forms of communication. Feedback and complaint mechanisms must also go beyond traditional formats of written and verbal communication.

As a community we must learn, not just from the stories and experiences shared with and by the disability royal commission, but also from how people with disability were supported to provide them. Through acknowledgement of the diversity of communication and by providing communication supports, we now have the opportunity to build inclusive environments.

Abby Foster consults to and is a certified practising member of Speech Pathology Australia. She is a research affiliate with the Centre for Research Excellence in Aphasia Recovery and Rehabilitation. She is affiliated with Yes23 campaign and Healthy Futures

Lucette Lanyon consults on inclusion of people with communication disability within organisational structures and clinical research. She receives funding from the Stroke Foundation and is a research affiliate with the Centre for Research Excellence in Aphasia Recovery and Rehabilitation.

– ref. For people with communication disability, complaining about their treatment isn’t so simple – https://theconversation.com/for-people-with-communication-disability-complaining-about-their-treatment-isnt-so-simple-214717

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Lindenmayer, Professor, The Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University

When we think of extinction, we think of individual species. But nature doesn’t operate like that. Entire communities and even whole ecosystems are now so compromised they could be lost entirely. Australia now has about 100 ecological communities at risk.

One of those is the iconic Mountain Ash (Eucalyptus regnans) community in Victoria’s Central Highlands. Many of us know and love these regal trees, the tallest flowering plant in the world. But decades of logging, repeated wildfires, and fragmentation of these forests means they and the species which rely on them like Leadbeater’s possum and gliders now face existential threats.

In our new research, we point to the need to list the entire community as threatened.

Read more:
After the chainsaws, the quiet: Victoria’s rapid exit from native forest logging is welcome – and long overdue

How can ecological communities go extinct?

Australia is an enormous contributor to global biodiversity loss. A recent study found 97 species in Australia have now gone extinct since British colonisation in 1788, with roughly 10% of all native mammal species gone forever. The numbers would be higher if invertebrate losses were included.

Worldwide, roughly a million species are now at risk of extinction. Looming loss at this scale threatens entire ecological communities – or even whole ecosystems.

Under Australia’s biodiversity laws, ecological communities can be listed as threatened, endangered or critically endangered. About 100 ecological communities – defined as assemblages of species in a particular habitat – are currently at risk. But even this figure is likely to be a massive underestimate.

Many ecological communities are not on this list even though they probably should be. The reason for that is a lack of good data.

To find out whether a community is threatened requires a thorough assessment of many species and key ecological processes using high-quality long-term data.

These kinds of data aren’t available for many communities. But we have 40 years of detailed data for the Central Highlands Mountain Ash forests. So to find out whether they are truly threatened, we undertook a detailed assessment.

Why are these forests at risk of collapse?

These forests cover 140,000 hectares near Victorian towns like Marysville, Warburton and Healesville. They’re rich in biodiversity, including several threatened mammals and plants.

We focused on the Central Highlands because this area is home to the largest remaining forests of Mountain Ash – 44% of all remaining forest.

Much elsewhere has been lost. In South Gippsland, plantations, dairy and potato farms have replaced Mountain Ash forests, with only small fragments left.

Tasmania’s Mountain Ash forests are important, albeit less extensive than those in Victoria’s Central Highlands.

Our conclusion? Sadly, the Central Highlands Mountain Ash community is now eligible for listing as either endangered or critically endangered.

These forests are now largely regrowth. Many have been fragmented, making it harder for wildlife to cross between patches. Biodiversity is still declining, including threatened species, while changing fire regimes are placing intensive pressure on the remaining forests.

What happened here? These forests have been subject to decades of intensive clearfell logging, as well extensive cutting dating back to the late 1920s.

These pressures have made old growth a vanishing rarity, accounting for just over 1% of the remaining 137,000 hectares of Mountain Ash forest in the Central Highlands. The rest of the forest is often highly degraded.

The loss of almost all old growth has been devastating for species like Leadbeater’s possum, the southern greater glider and the yellow-bellied glider over the past 25 years. These animals must have nesting hollows to survive, and these only form when large old trees lose limbs – a process that can take well over 100 years.

And because the Mountain Ash community is dominated by younger trees, it is now at risk of reburning. Younger trees are highly fire-prone – even those regenerating from the Black Saturday fires of 2009. This has left the entire ecological community vulnerable to future fires.

Our analysis found nearly 70% of these forest communities are already either severely disturbed by fire and logging or exist within 70 metres of severely disturbed areas.

What would happen if Mountain Ash communities collapse?

These pressures have pushed these forests to the edge. They could readily collapse and be replaced by an entirely different community, dominated by wattles and prone to more fire, more often.

The collapse of the Mountain Ash community would have catastrophic implications for the five million people who live in Melbourne. The city’s famously good drinking water relies almost entirely on run-off from Mountain Ash forest to the east.

You might wonder – won’t the ending of industrial logging in January help? It might – if we undertake a massive restoration effort. Many tracts of forest are simply not regenerating after logging – up to 30%.

Restoring tree cover, species diversity and making the ecosystem functional again will take a great deal of work.

What can we do?

The case is compelling for listing Victoria’s Mountain Ash community as threatened.

Huge efforts will be required to stop the populations of animals such as the southern greater glider from plunging. Recently, we have been testing new nesting box designs to help populations recover. These boxes are meant to be a stop-gap substitute as nesting hollows to replace natural cavities.

We’ll also have to do our best to keep out high-intensity wildfire from as many areas of Mountain Ash forest as possible, so the young trees have a chance to mature and develop hollows.

This kind of restoration is compatible with efforts by conservationists to declare a Great Forest National Park to protect Mountain Ash communities.

It’s well established that protecting areas does work. For example, an estimated 25% of the world’s bird species are alive today because they have been protected in reserves.

Listing an ecological community as threatened isn’t a one-way street to extinction. We can – and have – reversed the damage for other communities and species. We need do it for Mountain Ash forests, and it must be done now.

Read more:
We can’t just walk away after the logging stops in Victoria’s native forests. Here’s what must happen next

David Lindenmayer receives funding from the Australian Government, and the Victorian Government. He is a Councillor with the Biodiversity Council and is a member of Birds Australia.

Elle Bowd has received funding from the Paddy Pallin Foundation, Centre of Biodiversity Analysis, the Ecological Society of Australia, New South Wales government and the Holsworth Wildlife Research Endowment fund.

Kita Ashman works for WWF Australia and is an Ambassador for Paddy Pallin.

Chris Taylor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. It’s not just Victoria’s iconic mountain ash trees at risk – it’s every species in their community – https://theconversation.com/its-not-just-victorias-iconic-mountain-ash-trees-at-risk-its-every-species-in-their-community-214582

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland

In defending a Federal Court case brought by opponents of her decisions to approve two export coal mines, Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek is relying in part on what critics call the “drug dealer’s defence”.

It’s reasoning that argues: if we don’t sell this product, someone else will.

Prime Minister Albanese has argued the same thing, telling The Australian

policies that would just result in a replacement of Australian resources with resources that are less clean from other countries would lead to an increase in global emissions, not a decrease.

Albanese’s reasoning is that saying no to new Australian coal mines wouldn’t cut global emissions, it would just produce “less economic activity in Australia”.

If it sounds like a familiar argument, it is – past prime ministers and the coal industry have made similar claims for decades.

It’s possible to test this argument using economics, putting to one side the question of whether it is morally justifiable.

The defence works for drug dealers

Let’s look at how this defence works with retail drug dealers, many of whom are drug users themselves.

Street-level drug dealing is a job that doesn’t require much skill and pays above the minimum wage, even after allowing for the risk of arrest.

As a result, as soon as one dealer is arrested, someone will enter the market to replace the dealer. For this reason, drug policy has shifted away from traditional modes of street-level enforcement and towards community partnerships.

But coal is different. Global markets are supplied by a range of producers, each with different costs. Some mines can cover their costs even when world prices are low, others require very high world coal prices to break even.

In the case of metallurgical (coking) coal used to make steel, Australia’s mines are mostly at the low-cost end of the spectrum as shown below:

Indicative hard coking coal supply curve by mine, 2019

Thermal coal, used in electricity generation, is more complex, since much of the variation in price relates to its quality, rather than extraction cost.

Nevertheless, the fact remains that if one producer withdraws from the market or reduces output, it is highly unlikely to be replaced by an identical-cost producer.

It is likely instead to be replaced by a higher-cost supplier who needs a higher price to cover its costs. That’ll make the coal less attractive to the buyer who would have bought from the low-cost producer, making that buyer less likely to buy less of it.

This is Economics 101, illustrated in the supply and demand diagrams in just about every economics textbook.

Why Australia’s coal matters globally

In most markets, the demand curve is downward sloping, meaning the higher the price, the less the buyer wants.

And in most markets, the supply curve is upward sloping, meaning the higher the price, the more the seller is prepared to sell.

What’s bought, and for how much, depends on where those curves meet.

If the supply curve moves up, because the cost of supply has increased, the price at which the good is bought will move up and the quantity bought will move down.

In the figure below, the supply curve S1 is the current global supply.

If Australia supplies less coal, the supply curve will shift from S1 to S2, resulting in the higher price P2.

The higher price will result in increased supply from competitors, but also a reduction in the total amount consumed, a cut from Q1 to Q2.

This means that, contrary to government claims, our decisions will have an impact on global emissions and ultimately on global heating

Moreover, Australian decisions aren’t isolated.

All around the world, governments, financial institutions and civil society groups are grappling with the need to transition away from coal.

Proposals for new and expanded coal mines and coal-fired power stations face resistance at every step. In particular, the great majority of global banks and insurance companies now refuse to finance and insure new coal.

This means that the long-run response to a reduction in Australia’s supply of coal will involve less substitution and more of a drop in use than might be thought.

For coal, the drug dealer’s defence is shoddy

It makes the drug dealers defence for exporting coal especially shoddy.

It would be open to Plibersek to make another argument: that in the government’s political judgement, Australians are not willing to wear the short-run costs of a transition from coal, regardless of the impact on the global climate manifested every day in bushfires, floods and environmental destruction.

But instead, we are being told that if Australia cuts supply, other suppliers will rush in, without being told about their costs and what will happen next.

In markets like coal, with a fixed number of suppliers facing different costs, demand responds to the withdrawal of supply in the way the economics textbooks say it should.

Read more:
Yes, Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek approved a coal mine. But save the angst for decisions that matter more

John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority.

– ref. Why the ‘drug dealers defence’ doesn’t work for exporting coal. It’s actually Economics 101 – https://theconversation.com/why-the-drug-dealers-defence-doesnt-work-for-exporting-coal-its-actually-economics-101-214588

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Spoonley, Distinguished Professor, College of Humanities and Social Sciences, Massey University

The concerns of various pundits and politicians earlier this year that New Zealand might struggle to attract immigrants turned out to be premature. In fact, the country’s population has been boosted to the extent it should be a bigger election issue than it is.

In the 12 months to July, total permanent migrant arrivals were 208,400 – exceeding previous levels by quite a margin. Accounting for permanent departures, the net population gain from immigrants has been 96,200.

That breaks all previous records, and even accounts for a return to the consistent pattern of a net loss of New Zealand citizens (39,500 in the same period). There is every indication the country will hit an annual net gain of 100,000 people.

At this rate, inward migration will provide a net annual population gain of 2% for 2023. Once natural increase is added (births over deaths being more than 20,000 a year), the overall rate will be around 2.3% to 2.4%. By contrast, the OECD average is less than 0.5%.

Auckland is beginning another period of rapid population growth, reversing the decline seen in 2021. The city’s growth accounts for around half of the country’s total net migration gain. Combined with a natural increase of around 7,000 to 8,000, it means the city will have significant population growth, even allowing for a net migration loss to other regions.

Some of this surge can be explained by the return to relative normal after pandemic restrictions were lifted. But there’s a range of other factors pushing people to New Zealand, including anti-immigrant politics and general disenchantment in other countries.

New Zealand is seen as a desirable destination. In a recent US survey Americans ranked New Zealand second on their list of “best countries” – ahead of the US itself.

Immigration and productivity

In 2021, at the request of the finance minister, the Productivity Commission examined the ways immigration settings would contribute to the “long-term prosperity and wellbeing” of the country.

The Immigration – Fit for the Future report released in 2022 provided a very complete review of the data and issues. While it indicated that immigration and immigrants have positive effects and outcomes for New Zealand, it also pointed to a lack of consistency and strategy, and little public accountability.

Read more:
Refugees who set up businesses enrich NZ financially, culturally and socially – they deserve more support

Key findings included what the commission referred to as “an infrastructure deficit” as investment failed to keep up with population growth. It also described a “reliance risk” on migrant labour that had “negative consequences on innovation and productivity”.

In the trade-off between a reliance on migrant labour or investing in new technologies, the concern is that migrant labour presents an easy win, with little incentive for employers to innovate.

Yet the significant implications of the current immigration surge for planning and productivity are noticeably absent from this election campaign.

The missing election issue

Mostly, the main parties are positive about the role and contribution of immigrants (unlike some countries where anti-migrant sentiment has been rising). But the parties are also mainly concerned with policy detail, not the bigger picture.

Labour, National, ACT and the Greens all propose family and parent visas. This is to be welcomed, as migration works best when extended families are involved. And there is a general recognition that talent recruitment needs more attention.

Read more:
Why has New Zealand welcomed Ukrainians fleeing war and not others trying to do the same?

Specifically, Labour wants Pasifika and other migrants who have been in New Zealand for ten years or more to gain residency. The Greens propose a review of refugee and asylum-seeker policy. National wants a new visa category for highly educated migrants. And ACT would require a regulatory impact analysis for all immigration policy.

For its part, New Zealand First refers back to its policies from the 2020 election. This includes statements about the negative impact of “cheap labour undermining New Zealand’s pay and conditions”, something the Productivity Commission found little evidence of.

But the party also suggested greater attention should be given to a more regionally dispersed population and the establishment of a 30-year population plan. Somewhat by default, then, New Zealand First highlights the gaps in other parties’ policy recommendations.

Read more:
Foreign policy has been missing from NZ’s election campaign – voters deserve answers to these big questions

Where is the population strategy?

A more robust and constructive election debate would have addressed those big gaps more directly.

What should be New Zealand’s annual target for migrants, both permanent and temporary? How do we meet the challenges created by the current high volume, including the processing of applications, potential for migrant exploitation, and the stress on services and infrastructure?

More broadly, shouldn’t we be looking at immigration policy in the context of all the elements in play? This would mean factoring in the rapid ageing of the population, declining fertility and very different regional demographic trajectories (with some places experiencing population stagnation or decline).

Asked in a recent radio interview about the housing and infrastructure challenges of immigration and record population growth, National leader (and potentially next prime minister) Christopher Luxon argued the numbers were a “catch-up” from the COVID years:

We’ve got to make sure immigration is always strongly linked to our economic agenda and where we have worker shortages.

This only emphasises the lack of a genuine national plan. Now that the workers kept out by COVID are flowing into the country in large numbers, the Productivity Commission’s observations and suggestions are more relevant than ever.

Otherwise, New Zealand risks allowing immigration to be the default answer to much harder questions about innovation, productivity and the development of a long-term population strategy.

Paul Spoonley has received funding from MBIE to research migrant flows and the impacts of diversity. This research ended in 2021.

– ref. Record immigration will put pressure on NZ’s population, infrastructure and productivity – where’s the election debate? – https://theconversation.com/record-immigration-will-put-pressure-on-nzs-population-infrastructure-and-productivity-wheres-the-election-debate-214952

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daniel Ghezelbash, Associate Professor and Deputy Director, Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law, UNSW Law & Justice, UNSW Sydney, UNSW Sydney

Immigration Minister Andrew Giles today announced significant changes aimed at restoring the integrity of Australia’s refugee protection system.

The key focus is on reducing the significant backlogs in the processing and reviewing of protection visa applications once people apply for asylum in Australia.

The aim is to ensure people who fear persecution or other serious rights abuses can be granted protection quickly. This will, Giles says, allow them to “rebuild their lives with certainty and stability”.

According to Giles, “Australians are rightly proud of our country’s generous refugee program”. But there is no denying the current onshore protection system is broken.

The focus of successive governments in recent years has been on blocking and punishing asylum seekers who attempt to reach Australia by boat. This has distracted both the public – and the government – from the serious systemic issues slowing down access to protection here in Australia.

A decade for a final decision

The onshore protection system covers people who arrive in Australia on a valid visa – such as a tourist or student visa – and then apply for asylum.

Some people have valid protection claims, some don’t. A key problem is that processing times for these claims have been ballooning in recent years. On average, it now takes around 2.4 years for an initial decision on a protection claim to be made by the Department of Home Affairs. If the application is denied, it takes another 3.6 years to seek a merits review of the claim at the Administrative Appeals Tribunal. And if it’s denied again, there’s an additional 5.1 years for judicial review by the courts.

As a result, some people have had to wait as long as 11 years for a final decision. Such delays have a devastating impact on people with genuine asylum claims, who are forced to live in limbo and uncertainty for lengthy periods of time.

On the flipside, these delays have also been “motivating bad actors” to take advantage of the system by lodging increasing numbers of “non-genuine applications for protection”, according to the Nixon report, a review into the exploitation of Australia’s visa system by Victoria’s former police chief commissioner, Christine Nixon, which was released this week.

Read more:
Visa exploitation review urges tougher penalties and a ban on temporary migrants in sex work. Would this solve the problem?

The proposed changes

In this context, we welcome the A$160 million investment announced by the government today to implement a faster and fairer onshore protection system. This will increase the decision-making capacity across the whole asylum system. The funding includes:

• $54 million for the initial processing of claims by Home Affairs

• $58 million for the appointment of ten additional members to the Administrative Appeals Tribunal, the body that reviews claims that have been rejected

• and ten additional judges to the Federal Circuit and Family Court.

Another $48 million will be provided for legal assistance to support people through the complex asylum application process – something we have long called for.

There is a wealth of evidence demonstrating legal assistance increases the fairness and efficiency of the asylum process. Research by the Kaldor Centre Data Lab found asylum applicants with legal representation are, on average, five times more likely to succeed on a merits review than applicants who represent themselves. They are also six times more likely to succeed at the judicial review stage.

There is a wealth of similar research from other countries, including Canada, Switzerland and the United States, showing legal representation makes the entire system more efficient.

Read more:
How refugees succeed in visa reviews: new research reveals the factors that matter

This is because refugee lawyers provide a very important “triage” service in the process. Their specialised understanding of the law – as well as the social and political conditions from which asylum seekers have fled – means they only take on cases they feel have merit. In this way, lawyers help reduce the number of unmeritorious claims reaching tribunals and courts.

Refugee lawyers also help asylum seekers prepare their statements coherently and systematically. They identify relevant evidence and legal principles, which assists decision-makers to focus on the key aspects of the claim.

When an asylum seeker is unrepresented, decision-makers have to spend much more time ensuring the applicant understands the process and possible outcomes. They also want to ensure the person feels they have had a fair hearing. Overall, this is an inefficient use of public resources.

Smarter use of resources

These reforms represent a significant departure from Australia’s previous attempts to increase the efficiency of Australia’s asylum processes. Over the past three decades, successive governments have instead limited the rights of people seeking asylum – including by cutting funding for legal support.

Our research has made clear these efforts have almost always backfired, leading to more appeals and longer delays.

The most egregious example is the so-called “fast-track” procedure for processing the claims of certain asylum seekers who arrive by boat. Not only is the procedure unfair, but (contrary to its name) it has also been excruciatingly slow.

Read more:
Australia’s temporary visa system is unfair, expensive, impractical and inconsistent. Here’s how the new government could fix it

Now, to help speed up the asylum process more broadly, the government is implementing a new approach called “real-time priority processing” of protection visa applications at Home Affairs. This will involve a “last in, first out” approach that prioritises new asylum applications for rapid processing.

The rationale is this will de-incentivise unmeritorious applications and abuse of the asylum system.

While this makes sense as an interim measure as the government works through its significant backlogs, we still need a wider discussion on different approaches to prioritising claims. We need to ensure government resources are being used most efficiently and in the best interests of people seeking asylum.

There are potential lessons Australia can draw on from overseas. Canada, for example, prioritises and fast tracks applications that have a high likelihood of success. Switzerland accelerates cases with both high and low chances of success. Only complex cases requiring further investigation take longer to resolve.

To ensure fairness, Switzerland also provides universal access to government-funded legal representation. We need to spend more time examining these models to see what we can learn and adopt in Australia.

The Kaldor Centre is continuing this process by hosting a conference in Sydney next month which will discuss how we can ensure fairness for people seeking protection in the decade ahead. However, the central focus of the announcement this week on increasing the quality and capacity of Australia’s asylum system is a welcome first step in the right direction.

Daniel Ghezelbash receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the NSW Government. He is a member of the management committee of Refugee Advice and Casework Services and a Special Counsel at the National Justice Project.

Jane McAdam receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Why the government’s plan to overhaul the asylum system is a smart use of resources – and might just work – https://theconversation.com/why-the-governments-plan-to-overhaul-the-asylum-system-is-a-smart-use-of-resources-and-might-just-work-215061

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ritesh Chugh, Associate Professor – Information and Communications Technology, CQUniversity Australia

In the world of lithium-ion batteries, smartphones take centre stage. Yet they’ve also sparked an ongoing debate: does prolonged (or overnight) charging wreak havoc on your battery?

A number of factors determine a phone battery’s lifespan, including its manufacturing age and its chemical age. The latter refers to the battery’s gradual degradation due to variables such as fluctuations in temperature, charging and discharging patterns and overall usage.

Over time, the chemical ageing of lithium-ion batteries reduces charge capacity, battery lifespan and performance.

According to Apple:

A normal [iPhone] battery is designed to retain up to 80% of its original capacity at 500 complete charge cycles when operating under normal conditions.

Research has found a 2019 smartphone battery could, on average, undergo 850 full charge/discharge cycles before dropping to below 80% capacity. This means only 80% of the initial battery capacity remains after about two to three years of use. At this point the battery begins to deplete noticeably faster.

Should you charge your phone overnight?

Most new-generation smartphones will take somewhere between 30 minutes and two hours to charge fully.

Charging times vary depending on your device’s battery capacity – larger capacities require more time – as well as how much power your charger supplies.

Charging your phone overnight is not only unnecessary, it also accelerates battery ageing. Full charging cycles (going from 0%–100%) should be avoided to maximise your battery’s lifespan.

Samsung says:

charging your battery up to 100% too frequently may negatively impact the overall lifespan of the battery.

Similarly, keeping iPhones at full charge for extended periods may compromise their battery health.

Rather than a full top-up, it’s recommended to charge your battery up to 80% and not allow it to dip under 20%.

Can your phone be overcharged?

In theory, lithium-ion batteries can be overcharged. This can lead to safety risks such as the battery overheating and catching fire. The good news is most modern phones have an in-built protection that automatically stops the battery from charging further than 100% – preventing any damage from overcharging.

However, each time a battery drops to 99% (due to apps running in the background) it will “trickle charge”: it will start charging again to maintain a fully charged state.

Trickle charging can wear a battery down over time. That’s why many manufacturers have features to regulate it. Apple’s iPhones offer functionality to delay charging past 80%. Samsung’s Galaxy phones provide the option to cap the charge at 85%.

Can your phone explode from charging?

It’s very unlikely your smartphone will explode as a result of charging – especially since most phones now have automatic protections against overcharging.

Still, over the years we have seen several reports of phones exploding unexpectedly. This usually happens as a result of manufacturing faults, poor-quality hardware or physical damage.

Lithium-ion phone batteries overheat when the heat generated during charging is unable to dissipate. This may cause burns or, in extreme cases, lead to a fire.

Also, these batteries operate effectively within a temperature range of 0℃ to 40℃. They may expand at higher ambient temperatures, potentially causing a fire or explosion.

Using an incorrect, faulty or poor-quality charger or cable can also lead to overheating, fire hazards and damage to the phone itself.

Read more:
Phone wet and won’t turn on? Here’s how to deal with water damage (hint: soaking it in rice won’t work)

Tips to enhance your battery’s lifespan

Although your phone probably has in-built safety mechanisms to protect its battery, taking a cautious approach will make it last even longer. Here are some ways to protect your phone’s battery:

1. install the latest software updates to keep your phone up-to-date with the manufacturer’s battery efficiency enhancements

2. use original or certified power chargers, as the power delivery (amps, volts and watts) in off-market chargers can differ and may not meet the required safety standards

3. avoid exposing your phone to high temperatures – Apple and Samsung say their phones work best at 0℃ to 35℃ ambient temperatures

4. limit your charging to 80% of the full capacity and don’t let it dip below 20%

5. don’t leave your phone charging for an extended period, such as overnight, and disconnect it from the power source if the battery reaches 100%

6. keep your phone in a well-ventilated area while it’s charging and avoid placing it or the charger under a blanket, pillow or your body while it’s connected to a power source

7. monitor your battery health and use to identify unusual trends, such as taking an excessive time to charge, or rapid draining

8. if you notice your phone is heating up excessively, or has a bulging or swollen back, get an authorised service centre to check and repair it.

If you want specific details about your particular phone and battery, the best option is to follow the manufacturer’s guidelines.

Read more:
It’s 2022. Why do we still not have waterproof phones?

Ritesh Chugh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Should you charge your phone overnight? Will ‘overcharging’ make it explode? Common battery myths debunked – https://theconversation.com/should-you-charge-your-phone-overnight-will-overcharging-make-it-explode-common-battery-myths-debunked-214956

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Ann Wheeler, Professor in Water Economics, University of Adelaide

The impact on mental health of weather extremes such as drought is a growing concern due to climate change.

Rural communities feel the impact of drought much more than urban residents. Our new research looks at the link between drought and suicide rates in one of Australia’s biggest farming areas, the Murray-Darling Basin.

Drawing on monthly data from 2006 to 2016, our findings were alarming. We found, for instance, that one more month of extreme drought in the previous 12 months was strongly associated with a 32% increase in monthly suicide rates.

Climate change is predicted to bring more heat and longer, more extreme droughts. More effective approaches will be needed to prevent suicides in affected regions.

Read more:
Drought increases rural suicide, and climate change will make drought worse

Drought hits rural areas hardest

Droughts induce post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety and depression. Hotter temperatures can also reduce levels of the brain chemical serotonin. This has negative effects on the central nervous system and moods.

In Australia, suicide is a leading cause of death – especially for people aged 18-44. And the suicide rate in remote areas is almost double that of major cities. This is because drought can:

• reduce agricultural production
• increase financial hardship
• degrade the environment
• reduce employment.

Research overseas found suicide rates rise with higher average temperatures. In Australia, a study found some evidence linking drought and suicide in New South Wales. However, a Victorian study found no significant association.

Read more:
Bushfires, drought, COVID: why rural Australians’ mental health is taking a battering

What happened in the basin?

Our study looked at the Murray-Darling Basin. The region went through one of the worst droughts on record, the Millennium Drought, over the past couple of decades.

We analysed local area monthly data from 2006-16. We wanted to see whether worsening drought and heat were linked to higher monthly suicide rates, by examining differing types of droughts (moderate to extreme).

The map below shows the average suicide rate for 2006-2016 in local areas across the basin. Male suicide rates were over three times female rates.

We sought to control for as many local area characteristics as possible. Our modelling included unemployment, income, education, proportion of farmers, proportion of Indigenous people, health professionals, green space and various climate and drought variables. We modelled suicide rates for different age and gender sub-groups.

Key findings include:

• one more month of extreme drought in the previous 12 months was strongly associated with the total suicide rate increasing by 32%
• one more month of moderate drought in the previous 12 months was very weakly associated with a 2% increase in the suicide rate
• a 1℃ increase in average monthly maximum temperature in the previous 12 months was associated with up to an 8% increase in the suicide rate
• in males and younger age groups, suicide rates are more strongly associated with extreme drought and higher temperatures
• a higher proportion of farmers in a local area was associated with an increased suicide rate
• a higher proportion of First Nations people in a local area was also associated with higher suicide rates
• more green space was significantly associated with moderating impacts of both extreme drought and temperature on suicide rates
• an increase in average annual household income moderated the relationship between higher temperature and suicide.

Our results suggest the association between moderate drought and suicide rates is significant but the effect was small. As the drought becomes extreme, suicide rates increase significantly.

Read more:
New findings show a direct causal relationship between unemployment and suicide

What can we do better to prevent suicides?

Given drought’s impact on farm production and finances, mental health will clearly get worse in rural areas if the impacts of climate change are not better managed.

Mental health interventions to prevent suicide in rural areas are different from what’s needed in urban areas. Areas in the basin with higher percentages of farmers and First Nations people were hot spots. These areas may need special intervention.

Many have emphasised the need for a systems approach to suicide prevention. Actions need to be multifaceted and co-ordinated as well as possible. One intervention or approach is not enough.

Read more:
Hairdressers in rural Australia end up being counsellors too

Interventions in the bush range from telehealth and medical services to primary health networks services, men’s sheds and drought counselling.

The relationship between drought and financial hardship seems to be key in farming areas. This points to the need for other forms of income on the farm, including from native vegetation and carbon credits. Work can also be done to promote drought preparedness, increase appropriate regional economic, social development and environmental policies and – where necessary – help people leave farming.

If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.

Sarah Ann Wheeler has received funding from the Australian Research Council; GRDC; Wine Australia; MDBA; CRC Food Waste; CSIRO; Goyder Institute; SA Department of Environment and Water; ACCC; NT Department of Environment, Parks and Water Security; NSW Health; Commonwealth Department of Agriculture and Water; Meat and Livestock Australia; ACIAR; RIRDC; UNECE; NCCARF; National Water Commission; and the Government of Netherlands.

Alec Zuo receives funding from the Australian Research Council, GRDC, ACCC, NSW Health, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, ACIAR, NCCARF, and the National Water Commission.

Ying Xu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Suicide rates jumped after extreme drought in the Murray-Darling Basin – we have to do better as climate change intensifies – https://theconversation.com/suicide-rates-jumped-after-extreme-drought-in-the-murray-darling-basin-we-have-to-do-better-as-climate-change-intensifies-211107

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Lensen, Senior Lecturer in Artificial Intelligence | Pūkenga Matua, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

As the 2023 election campaign enters its final days, there is an elephant in the room that politicians seem keen to ignore: the rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and what it will mean for New Zealand’s economy, politics and society.

Developments over the past year, such as ChatGPT and Midjourney, have AI experts worried about the deeper consequences of these digital tools.

And they’re not alone. Global market research firm Ipsos found 63% of New Zealanders were nervous about AI, even though only 35% understand where it’s being used.

As a society, we rely on the government to take the lead on important issues like this. But there has been barely a peep on the topic from those seeking election this year. That relative silence should concern everyone.

The AI future is geting closer

During a recent election debate, the leaders of both major political parties were asked if AI was a threat to humanity. Labour’s Chris Hipkins said “potentially”, while National’s Christopher Luxon said “there are good and bad parts”.

The leaders were also asked about a potential tax on AI to support workers who will eventually lose their jobs to this kind of technology. Hipkins said he was “not sure how to do that”, and Luxon said he thought “we are a long way from that”.

But we’re not.

In May 2023, 4,000 jobs were lost to AI in the United States alone. Global business consulting firm McKinsey has said 12 million American workers will need to switch jobs by 2030 as a consequence of generative AI – artificial intelligence capable of generating text, images and other media.

Read more:
Artificial Intelligence should benefit society, not create threats

But AI will have wider societal implications than its impact on jobs. Over the past two decades, social media has contributed to a rise in misinformation, disinformation and political polarisation. New and more human-like AI bots – software programmed to complete repetitive tasks automatically – will make these threats even more pervasive, and more difficult to combat.

The use of AI in health, government, employment and other contexts has the potential to reinforce existing biases and prejudices, leading to inequitable outcomes.

This is especially true in Aotearoa, where AI models trained on Westernised data are ignorant of Māori tikanga and data sovereignty. AI is also putting minority languages at risk by defaulting to English

New Zealand is falling behind

The New Zealand government has been enthusiastic in using AI across the public service – from optimal scheduling of public hospital beds to helping decide whether an offender should be released from prison. But local lawmakers have been falling behind the rest of the world when it comes to regulating the technology.

The European Union’s AI Act is expected to pass into law by the end of 2023. This legislation is complex, but at its core it will classify AI tools into different categories of risk (from banned uses to no risk), with corresponding legislative requirements for deployment and monitoring.

The Union’s data privacy laws may also provide citizens with the “right to an explanation” on decisions made by AI systems.

Canada has announced a voluntary code of conduct with six core principles for organisations to follow when developing safe and responsible generative AI systems.

Even in the US – considered the centre of AI innovation – individual states are passing laws addressing the perceived threats of AI. At the federal level, the senate judiciary has held hearings on the regulation of AI.

Read more:
We need to prepare for the public safety hazards posed by artificial intelligence

There may be (small) signs of progress at home. In July, the office of the Prime Minister’s Chief Science Adviser released an article about New Zealand’s current response to AI and the challenges around regulation.

Labour’s recently released election manifesto mentions AI twice in its 74 pages, with a promise of a “just transition” for AI-affected workers. But the manifesto doesn’t describe what this transition would look like.

National’s “Boosting the Tech Sector” policy document states that a new “minister of technology” will ensure AI is used “safely and ethically” – without detailing what this means or how it will be enforced.

The Green Party’s digital policy provides overarching principles for regulating digital technology, such as social responsibility (reducing inequality) and honouring Te Tiriti. Again, however, the policy does not specifically address AI.

The other parties do not appear to have readily available technology policies on their websites.

Leaders need to go further on AI

Clearly, there is a way to go on policy development. New Zealand needs stronger data privacy laws recognising data is a taonga (treasure), and which require informed consent for use in AI training and processing.

Well-resourced, specialised policing that can investigate the use of deepfakes for identity theft and revenge porn are also needed.

And there needs to be regulation on what is and isn’t allowed to be automated with AI. For example, should the government automate benefit eligibility decisions or should the justice system use AI for low-level sentencing?

Economically, how can the profits of AI applications that use local data be kept within New Zealand? In the absence of a clear, homegrown AI strategy, Aotearoa will miss out on the opportunity to foster AI that benefits everyone.

Without active government regulation, New Zealanders and their political system could be vulnerable to manipulation by malign foreign interests.

The country needs to invest in its workforce to meet the changes being wrought by AI, and embrace Māori-driven AI research that establishes New Zealand as a creator of technologies that work for its people, not against them.

Andrew Lensen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. NZ’s political leaders are ignoring the mounting threats from AI – and that’s putting everyone at risk – https://theconversation.com/nzs-political-leaders-are-ignoring-the-mounting-threats-from-ai-and-thats-putting-everyone-at-risk-214714

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Petraglia, Director, Australian Research Centre for Human Evolution, Griffith University

Our species, Homo sapiens, migrated out of Africa multiple times – reaching the Levant and Arabia between 130,000 and 70,000 years ago, as exemplified by human fossils and archaeological sites found at various locations.

Little is known, however, about the pathways of these migrations. In a study published today in Science Advances, we find the now inhospitable and hyper-arid zone of the southern Jordan Rift Valley was frequently lush and well-watered in the past.

Our evidence suggests this valley had a riverine and wetland zone that would have provided ideal passage for hunter-gatherers as they moved out of Africa and deep into the Levant and Arabia.

Wandering out of Africa

Researchers hypothesise humans migrating out of Africa would have used platforms in the eastern Sahara, the Nile River Valley, or the margins of the western Red Sea.

From there, these small bands of hunter-gatherers would have passed into the Sinai – a land bridge connecting Africa with the rest of Asia – following migrating animals and hunting a variety of them for sustenance.

For many of these hunter-gatherers, the next stop on the journey would have been the southern portion of the Jordan Rift Valley. This valley is situated in a strategic zone, with the Dead Sea to the north and the Gulf of Aqaba in the south.

Our field work was concentrated on three sites. The first two were Wadi Gharandal and an area near the village of Gregra – both in the valley itself. The third site, Wadi Hasa, is located in the more elevated areas of the Jordan plateau.

“Wadi” is an Arabic word describing a temporary riverbed that only contains water during heavy rains.

When Arabia was a verdant land

Our goal was to reconstruct the region’s past environmental settings by accurately dating various sections of sediment. We used a technique called luminescence dating to estimate how long sediment grains had been shielded from sunlight, thereby allowing us to calculate how old they were.

Our findings from sedimentary sections ranging 5 to 12 metres in thickness showed ecosystem fluctuations over time, including cycles of dry and humid environments. We also found evidence for the presence of ancient rivers and wetlands.

Luminescence dating showed the sedimentary environments formed between 125,000 and 43,000 years ago, suggesting there had been multiple wet intervals.

At Wadi Gharandal, our team recovered three stone tools associated with a wetland environment. Two of these were made using the Levallois method – a characteristic manufacturing technique known to have been used by both Neanderthals and Homo sapiens. We dated the tools to 84,000 years ago.

Collectively, our fieldwork in the Jordan Rift Valley demonstrates the valley once functioned as a 360-kilometre-long freshwater corridor that helped funnel humans northward into Western Asia and southward into the Arabian Peninsula.

Further evidence for a northward expansion comes from the famous Skhul and Qafzeh cave sites in Israel. Fossils of Homo sapiens and Levallois stone tools have been found here.

Towards the south, fieldwork in northern Saudi Arabia has also demonstrated a network of rivers and lakes was once present in the region. This allowed humans to penetrate a green Nefud Desert replete with savannahs and grassland.

In the heart of the Nefud, the lakeside site of Al Wusta has produced a human fossil and Levallois stone tools dating to 85,000 years ago. These dates coincide with the 84,000-year-old Levallois stone tools found at Wadi Gharandal.

Read more:
Major new research claims smaller-brained _Homo naledi_ made rock art and buried the dead. But the evidence is lacking

Multiple migrations into South-West Asia

Our findings from the Jordan Rift Valley indicate there were multiple early human migrations from Africa, and into Asia, during favourable conditions. This opposes the theory of a single, rapid wave of human movement out of Africa 60,000 years ago.

Our results also suggest, together with the Levantine and Arabian evidence, that hunter-gatherers used inland river and wetland systems as they crossed South-West Asia. This contradicts a popular model suggesting they mainly used coastal routes as super-highways.

Although ancient DNA evidence indicates Homo sapiens interbred with Neanderthals and Denisovans multiple times as they spread into Asia, on-the-ground evidence for these encounters has generally been lacking. Our findings provide further evidence this area served as the ground for these encounters.

Yet numerous questions remain unanswered. Large swathes of territory in South-West Asia have not yet been surveyed or dated – and few fossils of our ancestors have been found to shore up arguments about how early humans really dispersed.

We’ll need to closely investigate more long-neglected areas such as the Jordan Rift Valley to accurately portray how humankind’s voyage out of Africa unfolded.

Read more:
Research reveals humans ventured out of Africa repeatedly as early as 400,000 years ago, to visit the rolling grasslands of Arabia

Zhongping Lai receives funding from the China Natural Science Foundation.

Mahmoud Abbas and Michael Petraglia do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. New path for early human migrations through a once-lush Arabia contradicts a single ‘out of Africa’ origin – https://theconversation.com/new-path-for-early-human-migrations-through-a-once-lush-arabia-contradicts-a-single-out-of-africa-origin-214719

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Maria Guagnin, Postdoctoral Researcher, Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology

About 7,000 years ago, a small group of people sat around a fire, next to a small lake in what is now the Nefud Desert of northern Saudi Arabia.

We found some of the tools they left behind – and on close inspection of the tools, we discovered these Stone Age herders were busy grinding animal bones, wild plants and pigments while their meat was cooking.

Our results are published in a new paper in PLOS ONE.

Herders and artists

Our earlier research has shown that between 10,000 and 6,000 years ago much of Arabia was far wetter and greener than it is today.

Grasslands spread, and trees and shrubs grew near water sources. Lakes formed and provided water. Herders lived around these lakes and led their cattle, sheep and goats to the best pastures.

These Stone Age herders were also skilled artists. They carved thousands of images into rock surfaces on cliffs and boulders, documenting their daily lives.

The rock art shows Stone Age people hunting gazelles, wild donkeys and ibex, and it also shows their most precious possession: their cattle.

Stone Age camp sites

Archaeological sites from this period consist of collections of small fireplaces. The herders seem to have been extremely mobile, moving around the landscape with their herds, searching for pasture and water.

On these routes they made small camps near lakes, returning to the same places again and again as the years passed and the seasons turned.

Read more:
Research reveals humans ventured out of Africa repeatedly as early as 400,000 years ago, to visit the rolling grasslands of Arabia

A few years ago, we discovered one such camp at Jebel Oraf, near the Jubbah Oasis, in the Nefud Desert of Northern Saudi Arabia.

On the shores of a small, ancient lake, we discovered 170 small fireplaces. We excavated 17 of these fireplaces and radiocarbon dating showed that most of them are between 7,200 and 6,800 years old.

What surprised us was that the small camps were full of grinding tools. Most of them had been broken into smaller pieces, and then placed on top of the fire. Some had had holes drilled into them to attach a rope to help carry them.

Although people were moving a lot, they took heavy grinding stones weighing up to three kilograms with them. It’s not clear how the grinding stones were transported – either they were carried by people or perhaps they were strapped to their cattle. Regardless, these grinding tools seem to have been very important to them.

Today the Jubbah Oasis is extremely arid and for archaeologists that means organic remains don’t survive. This made it very difficult to find out what the purpose of these grindstones was.

There are no plant remains in the archaeological sites, and animal bones only survive in small fragments. So, we turned to microscopic analysis in order to help determine the function of the grinding tools.

Microscopic traces

In experiments we find that grinding different materials, such as bone, pigment, or plants, leaves distinctive microscopic marks on the surface of the grinding tools. These marks, including striations, fractures, rounding of individual quartz grains and different types of polish, can be seen with a microscope.

We looked at the Stone Age grinding tools to identify similar traces, and from them to determine what materials were ground.

Our microscopic study showed the grindstones were used for a range of different purposes.

Some were used to process bones. We know the fires were used to cook the meat of cattle, sheep and goats, and of game such as oryx and ostrich.

We think the herders broke open animal bones to get to the marrow. Bone marrow is high in fat, and this would have helped them to get extra nutrition.

Our analysis also showed they ground plants. None of the actual plant remains have survived, so we don’t know if they ground wild plants to make simple breads, or if they pounded plant fibres to make baskets or rope.

Both would have been important for their lifestyle. They moved a lot and bread would have been easy to preserve and carry around. Baskets and rope would have been used for storage and transport and also to construct simple, transportable shelters.

The grinding tools also showed pigment was processed. Red shale, a rock found in nearby mountains, can be used like a crayon or ground into red powder and mixed into paint.

Painted rock art doesn’t often survive. Over the centuries it is washed off by rain and wind.

Only one painted rock art site from the Neolithic survives near Jebel Oraf. It shows cattle with beautiful long horns.

The grinding stones are now evidence that painted art may once have been a lot more widespread.

Valuable tools

Our analysis of the grinding marks also showed the tools were often used for different materials over time. They were clearly valuable and used as much as possible.

At the end they were broken into smaller pieces. In some cases we were able to piece back together up to 12 fragments. We’re still not sure why the discarded tools were placed on the fire – perhaps they used them to cook or to dry their meat.

Grinding stones appear to have been an important tool for mobile herders 7,000 years ago. Although they would have been hard to carry, these tools allowed Stone Age herders to produce food resources and plant materials that were vital to their highly mobile lives.

Read more:
Enigmatic ruins across Arabia hosted ancient ritual sacrifices

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Stone Age herders transported heavy rock tools to grind animal bones, plants and pigment – https://theconversation.com/stone-age-herders-transported-heavy-rock-tools-to-grind-animal-bones-plants-and-pigment-214838

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Axel Bruns, Professor, Digital Media Research Centre, Queensland University of Technology

As campaigning in the referendum on an Indigenous Voice to Parliament continues, “no” campaigners have repeatedly argued against what they call “the Voice of division”.

The results of our exclusive opinion poll suggest something to the contrary: most prospective “no” voters see the country as already divided, while “yes” voters are more likely to see it as united.

As part of an Australian Laureate Fellowship project, we commissioned a series of questions to explore whether Australian voters saw their country as divided, against the backdrop of the current referendum campaigns. These questions were added to the regular Essential opinion poll in its September 5 poll.

Read more:
Voice support up in Essential poll, but it is still behind

Division and the Voice

Polling on Voice voting intention itself shows polarisation on the issue. In the week our questions were asked, Essential showed an overall split of 42% of respondents likely to vote “yes” and 48% likely to vote “no”, with 10% undecided. (The “yes” vote has regained some ground in more recent polling.)

But when we asked respondents “How unified or divided you think Australian society is?”, their perceptions differed vastly between “yes” and “no” supporters.

Of those who see the country as unified, 58% intend to vote “yes”, while only 34% intend to vote “no”. Those who see division have almost exactly opposite intentions: 59% plan to vote “no” and 34% plan to vote “yes”.

Perceptions of unity and division in Australian society and referendum voting intentions

These results are remarkable, and contradict the “no” campaign rhetoric that it is the Voice to Parliament proposal itself that divides us. Instead, they show only a part of the Australian population believes the country is divided – and those voters overwhelmingly support the “no” campaign.

Who sees Australia as divided – and why?

Away from the Voice campaign, though, our poll results show societal division in Australia remains relatively mild overall. Of all the respondents we polled, 27% saw Australia as very or quite unified, and 42% as quite or very divided – which leaves 31% of voters who take a neutral point of view.

Overall perceptions of unity and division in Australian society

This compares favourably with countries such as the United States, where polarisation, especially between political camps, now pervades virtually all aspects of society. Australians may have their disagreements, but only 9% of us see the country as very divided.

It also means “no” voters believe Australia to be considerably more divided, and “yes” voters believe the country to be substantially more unified, than Australians do on average.

These perceptions vary among different demographics. Younger participants see more unity in Australia. In contrast, voters over 55 see more division.

Employment status also plays a role: those in paid employment see considerably more unity than those without employment. This is especially true of retirees – who are also likely to be older, of course. Similarly, residents of capital cities see more unity than those outside them.

Demographic effects on perceptions of unity and division in Australian society

A ‘no’ campaign that appeals to perceptions of division

Our poll results show the main appeal of the “no” campaign’s rhetoric of “the Voice of division” is not to Australians who want to prevent deep political division in the country before it can take root.

Rather, it has attracted a substantial share of voters who think the country is already divided – and whose perceptions of polarisation are considerably greater than everyone else’s. In this sense, rather than offering a voice for unity, the “no” campaign is giving voice to division.

Conversely, the “yes” campaign has yet to convince a sufficiently large group of voters that the Voice offers a pathway towards greater unity – even if those who intend to vote “yes” on October 14 are already much more inclined to see the country as united.

Read more:
The ‘yes’ Voice campaign is far outspending ‘no’ in online advertising, but is the message getting through?

Methodology

This content was commissioned by Queensland University of Technology and completed by Essential Research. The survey was conducted online from August 30 to September 3 2023 and is based on 1,151 respondents sourced from online research panels.

The target population is all Australian residents aged 18 and over. Demographic quotas were applied to fieldwork and results are weighted. Full details of the methodology can be found here.

This research was conducted in accordance with the Australian Polling Council code of conduct. The council aims to advance the quality and understanding of public opinion polling in Australia.

Axel Bruns receives funding from the Australian Research Council through Laureate Fellowship FL210100051 Dynamics of Partisanship and Polarisation in Online Public Debate, Discovery project DP200101317 Evaluating the Challenge of ‘Fake News’ and Other Malinformation, and the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision-Making and Society (ADM+S).

Samantha Vilkins receives funding from the Australian Research Council through Laureate Fellowship FL210100051 Dynamics of Partisanship and Polarisation in Online Public Debate.

Tariq Choucair receives funding from the Australian Research Council through Laureate Fellowship FL210100051 Dynamics of Partisanship and Polarisation in Online Public Debate.

– ref. New polling shows ‘no’ voters more likely to see Australia as already divided – https://theconversation.com/new-polling-shows-no-voters-more-likely-to-see-australia-as-already-divided-214713

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Louise Birrell, Researcher at The Matilda Centre for Research in Mental Health and Substance Use, University of Sydney

Moody, withdrawn, down. These words are often used by parents of teens. And young people may say they feel so “depressed” about upcoming exams, or that the world is “just so depressing” these days.

But how do you know if your teen is experiencing what health professionals call “major depression”? And when should you seek help?

First, let’s understand what is meant by this term. Major depression is characterised by persistent low mood and/or irritability and loss of interest or pleasure in usual activities for at least two weeks. It also includes physical symptoms, such as sleep disturbance and fatigue, and cognitive symptoms, such as negative thoughts about themselves and the future, difficulty concentrating or making decisions.

Major depression is more than brief sadness, or an expected reaction to loss or a stressful event.

While the diagnosis is the same for adolescents and adults, teens may be more likely to present with irritability and mood changes rather than the low mood typical of adults.

Increasing over time

There is evidence depression is increasing among young people, with an international study in 2021 estimating 25% of children and adolescents experienced elevated depression symptoms – double pre-pandemic levels. While Australia was not included in this study, a recent Australian study showed psychological distress have spiked in Australian millennials (born between the early 1980s and late 1990s) and Gen-Z Australians (born late 1990s to early 2010s).

While the cause of this increase is unclear, it is likely due to multiple factors, such as financial pressures, social isolation, and climate change, and made worse by the COVID pandemic.

Given the understandable distress experienced by many young people, how can parents or carers know when to seek help?

Read more:
How parents can play a key role in the prevention and treatment of teen mental health problems

Listen up

Begin by talking to your child. Let them know you have noticed some changes and you are concerned about them. If your child opens up about their difficulties, listen carefully and validate their feelings. Being able to talk about difficulties, and knowing support is there if they need may be enough for some teens.

Read up on depression from reputable sources, so you are better equipped to understand and support a young person.

Try not to dismiss a teen’s feelings or punish irritable behaviour. It can be tempting to remind them of positives or offer solutions – but this can often backfire, leaving them feeling misunderstood. While it might be difficult or uncomfortable to talk openly with your teen about their mental health, it is often a huge relief for them.

Professional help may be needed if they are highly distressed, or if their difficulties are having a significant impact on their usual activities and relationships (this may include withdrawing from many activities, avoiding school, or avoiding friends and family most of the time).

Start with a GP

The good news is, effective treatments are available.

The first step to finding appropriate treatment will likely be supporting your teen to see a GP. Again, simply talking through their concerns with the doctor may be very helpful. Your young person might prefer to discuss this with the GP without you.

The GP may refer them to a mental health professional, such as a psychologist or psychiatrist.

Teens can also go directly to an organisation like Headspace, which provides information, support and services to young people aged 12 to 25 and their families and friends via centres across Australia.

Read more:
The first sleep health program for First Nations adolescents could change lives

What does depression treatment look like?

A recent review on recognising and managing teen depression examined clinical practice guidelines from Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, the United States and New Zealand found a comprehensive treatment approach is typically used.

Treatment can include:

• education about depression and its treatment

• lifestyle interventions (such as improving sleep, diet and exercise)

• psychological therapy (often focused on understanding and changing unhelpful thinking patterns)

• prescription of antidepressants when needed.

Whether to start a teen on antidepressant medication can be a difficult decision. It should be a collaborative decision involving the teen, their parents and health professionals.

Like all medication, antidepressants have side effects and potential risks. They are typically used in cases of severe depression, or if psychological treatments have been unsuccessful. Suicidal thoughts or behaviour are a possible side effect of antidepressants for a small proportion of adolescents and should be carefully monitored. However, untreated depression is also a risk factor for suicide, so the potential benefits and risks of antidepressant use by teens needs to be carefully considered.

Assessing risk

Suicidal thoughts and self-harm are common in depression but can be effectively treated.

Suicide risk assessment is a critical part of any treatment for depression, and should include the development of a safety plan with the teen and their parents or carers. Safety plans can be very helpful in times of distress, listing helpful coping strategies and contact details for family, friends and health professionals.

If you are concerned your teen might be at risk of suicide, take it seriously. Ask them direct questions, such as “Are you thinking about suicide?”. Get professional support as soon as possible and take the young person to the nearest emergency department or call 000 if you are worried about their immediate safety. You can also contact Kids Helpline 24 hours a day 1800 55 1800.

Importantly, look after yourself. Supporting a teen with depression can take a toll and lead to significant tension in a household.

Find someone (other than your child) you can confide in. Make sure you’re getting rest, nutrition and exercise. Seek professional support if you find yourself struggling. Taking care of yourself means you are better equipped to support your child.

If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14 or Kids Helpline on 1800 55 1800.

Louise Birrell receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, the Australian government and Australian Rotary Health.

Andrew Baillie is employed by the University of Sydney in a position half funded by Sydney Local Health District and he receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council and the Medical Research Future Fund.

Maree Teesson is Chair of Australia’s Mental Health Think Tank which is funded by the BHP Foundation. She is Director of The Matilda Centre, The University of Sydney. She is chair of the Million Minds Mission. She receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, the Australian Government, BHP Foundation, Paul Ramsay Foundation and other research organisations. She is co-director of OurFutures Institute a not-for-profit company established to distribute evidence resources to education organisations.

Erin Kelly does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. I think my teen is depressed. How can I get them help and what are the treatment options? – https://theconversation.com/i-think-my-teen-is-depressed-how-can-i-get-them-help-and-what-are-the-treatment-options-206702

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alan Finkel, Chair of ARC Centre of Excellence for Quantum Biotechnology, The University of Queensland

This article is part of a series by The Conversation, Getting to Zero, examining Australia’s energy transition.

Just over a year since US President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) into law, it’s becoming clear this strangely named piece of legislation could have a powerful impact in spurring the global transition to net zero emissions by 2050.

But the vast amount of investment unleashed by the IRA has raised tensions with some of the United States’ closest allies, and creates risks, as well as opportunities, for Australia’s transition to clean energy sources.

In his 2020 presidential campaign, Biden promised to commit the US to net zero by 2050, and to spend US$2 trillion to get there – the biggest investment in manufacturing since World War II. Biden is delivering on those promises.

Read more:
The road is long and time is short, but Australia’s pace towards net zero is quickening

The 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act included about $100 billion for electric vehicles and for speeding the electricity grid’s transition to clean energy sources.

The IRA changes the landscape

Passage of the IRA, in August 2022, ensured a swathe of green technologies would benefit from tax credits, loans, customer rebates and other incentives.

The original announcement estimated that uncapped subsidies over ten years would be US$369 billion, but Goldman Sachs Research now estimates that total subsidies could reach US$1.2 trillion and attract US$3 trillion investment by industry. That’s trillion, not billion.

Already, 272 new or expanded clean energy manufacturing projects in the US, including 91 in batteries, 65 in electric vehicles and 84 in wind and solar power, have been announced. These projects are estimated to create 170,000 jobs, predominantly in Republican-led states.

The IRA is all carrot, no stick. It contains no carbon taxes or emissions trading schemes. Instead, tax credits for capital expenditure and production costs encourage companies to invest in solar, wind, hydrogen, batteries, electric vehicles and other zero emissions technologies.

This approach is shifting the debate on the best way to reach net zero emissions. To free-market economists who ask why government should invest in private sector industries, the answer is that the green energy transition is not natural. Renewable energy would never have advanced without Germany subsidising solar and Denmark subsidising wind.

Subsidies and mandates are also crucial in explaining why, last year, Chinese vehicle manufacturers produced 64% of the global total of 10.5 million electric vehicle sales, and deployed about half of the global capacity additions in solar and wind power.

Read more:
Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system

Industrial policy to protect the climate

The IRA is America’s response. More than climate policy, it is industrial policy, replete with made-in-America provisions. Companies are more likely to obtain tax credits if they employ unionised labour, train apprentices and set up shop in states that are transitioning out of fossil fuels.

Consumers will earn a $7,500 federal tax credit on an electric car only if that car is assembled and at least half the battery made in America. Similarly, wind and solar projects will earn tax credits only if half of their manufactured components are made in America.

These policies were made with China in mind. Both main US parties agree the US must reduce its dependence on sourcing minerals and products from China, and move towards a new form of “strategic economic nationalism”.

Yet while America’s strongest allies are also alarmed by the challenge from China, they are disturbed by aspects of the IRA. They fear that to benefit from its subsidies, their own clean energy companies might pack up shop and establish plants in the US.

The European Union, for example, has praised the IRA’s overall approach, but fiercely criticised its made-in-America provisions. French President Emmanuel Macron called the Act “super aggressive” toward European companies. European leaders say the IRA violates trade rules by discriminating against imported products, and could “trigger a harmful global subsidy race to the bottom on key technologies and inputs for the green transition.”

Yet even as it criticises the US, the EU has responded to the IRA by relaxing its rules and allowing individual states to provide direct support to clean energy companies to stop them taking their projects to the US.

Canada, worried about investment flowing south to benefit from the IRA even though its free trade agreement with the US should give its companies access to the subsidies, has also announced tax credits and programs to boost clean energy production. Japan and South Korea have announced similar programs.

Why the IRA challenges Australia

In Australia, before the IRA was legislated, the Morrison government provided a A$1.25 billion loan to Iluka Resources to fund construction of an integrated rare-earths refinery in Western Australia. The refinery will produce separated rare earth oxide products that are used in permanent magnets in electric vehicles, clean energy generation and defence.

But Australia risks being left behind in the race to build clean energy industries. The US could so heavily subsidise green hydrogen production that our own planned industry – seen as a foundation of our aspiration to be a clean energy superpower – will be uncompetitive, leading our aspiring manufacturers to set up shop in the US.

Read more:
‘Green steel’ is hailed as the next big thing in Australian industry. Here’s what the hype is all about

The IRA, however, brings Australia many potential benefits. The US wants to source the raw and refined materials it needs from countries, such as Australia, with which it has a free trade agreement. To respond to this interest, Australian industry, transport and mining must have access to low-emissions electricity.

The US will be an essential market for our rare earths such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium, used to make the powerful permanent magnets in wind turbines and electric car motors. Australia can also build new industrial processes and supply chains so that we earn more from decarbonised metallic iron, aluminium and nitrogenous fertiliser. We can ship our renewable energy in the form of hydrogen and ammonia.

In this race, Australia’s friendship with the US and volatile relationship with China could be decisive. The IRA does not spell out the concept of friend-shoring but nevertheless it seeks “to onshore and friend-shore the electric vehicle supply chain, to capture the benefits of a new supply chain and reduce entanglement with China,” according to the US Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

The IRA denies electric vehicle tax credits when any component or critical mineral in the vehicle is sourced from China or any “foreign entity of concern.”

A clean energy trade war is just one of the potential obstacles that could prevent the full benefits of the IRA being realised. Many communities in the US and Australia are resisting the installation of new transmission lines, wind farms and other clean energy infrastructure, and these objections are often on environmental grounds – the so-called Greens’ Dilemma. And a win for Donald Trump in next year’s presidential election could reverse American climate policy.

Yet on balance, the IRA can only be good for getting to net zero. It brings the US in from the climate wilderness to be a leader in emissions reduction, helping to drive new technologies and lower costs that will benefit not only America but the world.

Alan Finkel is chair of the Hysata Advisory Council and an investor in the company. He is a member of the Rio Tinto Innovation Advisory Council.

– ref. Made in America: how Biden’s climate package is fuelling the global drive to net zero – https://theconversation.com/made-in-america-how-bidens-climate-package-is-fuelling-the-global-drive-to-net-zero-214709

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rebecca Banham, Postdoctoral fellow, University of Tasmania

The famous Sycamore Gap tree was felled last week, prompting global expressions of sorrow, anger and horror. For some, the reaction was puzzling. Wasn’t it just a single tree in northern England? But for many, the tree felt profoundly important. Its loss felt like a form of grief.

Trees tell us something important about ourselves and who we are in the world. That is, they contribute to ontological security – our sense of trust that the world and our selves are stable and predictable.

Trees – especially those celebrated like England’s sycamore or Tasmania’s 350-year-old El Grande mountain ash – feel like they are stable and unchanging in a world where change is constant. Their loss can destabilise us.

What makes a tree iconic?

Individual trees can become important to us for many reasons.

When the wandering ascetic Siddhartha Gautama sat at the foot of a sacred fig around 500 BCE, he achieved the enlightenment which would, a few centuries later, lead to his fame as the Buddha. This sacred fig would become known as the Bodhi Tree. One of its descendants attracts millions of pilgrims every year.

Sometimes a tree becomes iconic because of its association with pop culture. U2’s hit 1987 album The Joshua Tree has inspired fans to seek out the tree on the cover in the United States’ arid southwest – a potentially dangerous trip.

Other trees become famous because they’re exceptional in some way. The location of the world’s tallest tree – a 115-metre high redwood known as Hyperion – is kept secret for its protection.

Niger’s Tree of Ténéré was known as the world’s most isolated, eking out an existence in the Sahara before the lonely acacia was accidentally knocked down by a truck driver in 1973. Its site is marked by a sculpture.

In 2003, the mountain ash known as El Grande – then the world’s largest flowering plant – was accidentally killed in a burn conducted by Forestry Tasmania. The death of the enormous tree – 87 metres tall, with a 19 metre girth – drew “national and international” media attention.

This year, vandals damaged a birthing tree sacred to the local Djab Wurrung people amidst conflicts about proposed road works in western Victoria.

And in 2006, someone poisoned Queensland’s Tree of Knowledge – a 200-year-old ghost gum famous for its connection to the birth of trade unionism in Australia. Under its limbs, shearers organised and marched for better conditions. The dead tree has been preserved in a memorial.

What is it to lose a tree?

Sociologist Anthony Giddens defines ontological security as a “sense of continuity and order in events”.

To sustain it, we seek out feelings of safety, trust, and reassurance by engaging with comfortable and familiar objects, beings and people around us – especially those important to our self-identity.

When there is an abrupt change, it challenges us. If your favourite tree in your street or garden dies, you mourn it – and what it gave you. But we mourn at a distance too – the Sycamore Gap tree was world-famous, even if you never saw it in real life.

In my research, I have explored how Tasmanian forests – including iconic landscapes and individual trees – can give us that sense of security we all seek in ourselves.

As one interviewee, Leon, told me:

These places should be left alone, because in 10,000 years they could still be there. Obviously I won’t be, we won’t be, but perhaps [the forest will be].

Temporality matters here. That is, we know what to expect by looking to the past and imagining what the future could be. Trees – especially ancient ones – act as a living link between the past, present, and future.

As my interviewee Catherine said:

You lie under an old myrtle and you just go, ‘wow – so what have you seen in your lifetime?’ Shitloads more than me.

That’s why the loss of the Sycamore Gap tree has upset seemingly the entire United Kingdom. The tree was famous for its appearance: a solitary tree in a photogenic dip in the landscape.

Its loss means a different future for those who knew it. It’s as if you were reading a book you know – but someone changed the ending.

Read more:
Sycamore Gap: what the long life of a single tree can tell us about centuries of change

Loss of connection

We respond very differently when humans do the damage compared to natural processes. In one study, UK homeowners found it harder to accept their house being burgled than for it to be flooded, seeing flooding as more natural and thus less of a blow to their sense of security.

This is partly why the sycamore’s death hurt. It didn’t fall in a storm. It was cut down deliberately – something that wasn’t supposed to happen.

The sycamore was just a tree. But it was also not just a tree – it was far more, for many of us. It’s more than okay to talk about what this does to us – about how the loss of this thread of connection makes us grieve.

Yes, we have lost the Sycamore Gap tree, just as we lost El Grande and many others. It is useful to talk about this – and to remember the many other beautiful and important trees that live on.

Read more:
Photos from the field: capturing the grandeur and heartbreak of Tasmania’s giant trees

Rebecca Banham received funding from an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship, which funded the research associated with this article.

– ref. It wasn’t just a tree: why it feels so bad to lose the iconic Sycamore Gap tree and others like it – https://theconversation.com/it-wasnt-just-a-tree-why-it-feels-so-bad-to-lose-the-iconic-sycamore-gap-tree-and-others-like-it-214841

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David O’Halloran, Adjunct Lecturer in Work and Labour Market Theory, Monash University

There’s talk of bringing back Australia’s Commonwealth Employment Service.

The Community and Public Sector Union has launched a campaign, the parliament has begun an inquiry into the appropriateness of the present system of outsourcing employment services, and the government’s employment white paper has been deeply critical of the system we have at the moment.

The Commonwealth Employment Service was itself the result of Australia’s first employment white paper in 1945, which wanted a service designed, in its words:

• to bring to the notice of men and women seeking employment the full range of opportunities, and in particular to find employment offering scope for their abilities

• to enable employers to draw upon suitable labour throughout the Commonwealth

• to provide assistance where necessary to enable employees to move to where employment is available.

It staffed offices throughout the country in which workers wanting to be matched with jobs would thumb through index cards and seek advice from expert job matchers.

The service closed in 1998 when the Howard government decided to outsource it to private job providers who would be paid for performance.

It hasn’t worked as planned.

The September 2023 white paper says it is seen as “highly transactional and poorly tailored to the diverse and complex needs of people who use it”.

Services were thought to:

do little to support job seekers and build their capabilities, with one stakeholder arguing that national employment services had failed to keep those people at the highest risk of disadvantage connected with labour markets, let alone in paid employment.

A handful of corporations now dominate the system, raking in large profits while arguably failing in their obligations.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has told The Conversation’s Michelle Grattan he wants to reform the system and he will be using the insights of the parliamentary committee.

But my PhD research into Australia’s employment services suggests putting things back to how they were would be a bad idea, for two reasons.

First, it would require commitment from the Commonwealth and resources that have been lacking for decades. The government used to be able to do more.

Bringing back the Commonwealth Employment Service would require placing a new Commonwealth agency office in every major town and centre across the country – akin to expecting someone who was emaciated to train for the Olympics.

These days the government is too incapacitated to manage even basic functions without support from expensive consultants, let alone to manage an expansion.

Its incapacity is evident every time there’s a national crisis. The only agency it can reliably call on is the defence force because there’s little else left.

Read more:
Politics with Michelle Grattan: Treasurer Jim Chalmers on jobs and work

Back at the time of the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires, social workers and counsellors from Centrelink and the Commonwealth Rehabilitation Service were rapidly redeployed and played crucial roles.

The Commonwealth Rehabilitation Service was abolished in the Coalition’s first 2014 budget and the remaining social workers in Centrelink are overwhelmed.

The Commonwealth can now barely manage contracts

In the early stages of outsourcing, the Department of Employment still had staff with Commonwealth Employment Service experience and were able to manage the outsourcing contracts well – they understood how complicated labour markets were at the local level.

But these days it’s unlikely there’s anyone is left within the department with direct experience with the service, or even any kind of service.

Each of the previous reviews of employment services over the last 20 years (at least five by my count) has entertained the fantasy that a special blend of incentives can be created to get outsourced providers to do the right thing.

Not only has the Commonwealth’s capacity to deliver services dwindled, its ability also to effectively purchase services has diminished them as well.

The Commonwealth links programs to payments

The other reason not to reestablish a Commonwealth Employment Service is that these days the government links the provision of services to the payment of benefits, through what it calls “mutual obligations”.

Providers complain they’ve got to divert staff away from liaising with potential employers to managing compliance.

Oblivious to the irony, when I appeared before the parliamentary inquiry, federal politicians told me about the effectiveness of some local and state government initiatives, asking why they were successful.

They are successful because they focus on matching employers and employees rather than linking obligations to benefits.

State, territory and local governments around the country have long realised the Commonwealth is unable to properly focus on getting people jobs and have taken matters into their own hands, usually at a fraction of the cost.

States do things better

Unemployed workers are voting with their feet and turning to these locally run services, sometimes risking suspension of their Centrelink payments because they have failed to turn up to meetings with their official employment provider.

Imagine the possibilities if the Commonwealth were to hand over to the states and local government the northwards of $3 billion it blows each year on its often useless and sometimes harmful programs.

States and territories could then develop really superior services, like Switzerland, where employment services are developed and delivered at the level of individual cantons (states). It means what works in Geneva doesn’t have to be imposed on Zurich, producing better outcomes.

The Commonwealth will never be good at providing services while it is obsessed with controlling the welfare budget, and it is responsible for the welfare budget. The states don’t have that problem and do have an immediate on-the-ground interest in getting their citizens into jobs.

David O’Halloran is not a member but provides volunteer support to the Australian Unemployed Workers Union

– ref. Please, don’t bring back the Commonwealth Employment Service – https://theconversation.com/please-dont-bring-back-the-commonwealth-employment-service-214644

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cherine Fahd, Associate Professor Visual Communication, University of Technology Sydney

Australian cinema has often struggled to authentically portray the cultural lives of Middle Eastern Australians. Stereotypical stories frequently sidestep the intricacies of social bonds, as well as the cultural differences in domestic life and familial attachment.

Noora Niasari’s Shayda refreshingly challenges this trend.

Shayda is a powerful debut feature for the Iranian-Australian filmmaker, in a worldly film which marks a profound shift in Australian storytelling and Australian cinema.

The film avoids common Australian film tropes, steering clear of clichéd Aussie humour, traditional Australian archetypes like pristine beaches, the gothic outback and heroic male personas. Additionally, it refrains from marginalising the Middle Eastern characters.

It presents an unflinching portrayal of domestic violence and the grim reality of an Iranian woman trapped in an oppressive marriage.

Zar Amir Ebrahimi delivers a remarkable performance, embodying Shayda’s vulnerability, strength and inner turmoil, immersing the audience in her world of yearning and pain.

Hushed conversations and mounting tension

Shayda is living in Australia, in an unspecified city, with her husband, Hossein (Osamah Sami), and their six-year-old daughter, Mona (Selina Zahednia). She had previously tried to divorce her husband in Iran; now she seeks refuge in a women’s shelter in Australia.

Beautifully directed domestic scenes between mother and daughter show Shayda striving to provide Mona with some stability. But when a judge grants visitation rights to Hossein he re-enters their lives, reigniting Shayda’s fears he may attempt to take Mona back to Iran.

From the moment the film begins, a looming threat of child abduction keeps us on edge. This tension only intensifies with each seemingly ordinary scene, such as Mona having McDonald’s with her father in a suburban food court. His sly attempts to gather information about his wife betray his deep love for his child.

The women’s shelter is run by the formidable and compassionate Joyce, played masterfully by Leah Purcell. A particularly poignant scene unfolds as Joyce helps Shayda complete her divorce forms in English with the aid of an interpreter. Through this bilingual exchange, we gain insight into the extent of her husband’s violence. Such scenes are rich with information, unravelling gradually through hushed conversations and mounting tension.

Shame and loss

We slowly learn about Shayda and Hossein’s journey from Tehran to Australia for education. However, Hossein’s connections prevent Shayda from pursuing her own studies, with her study visa mysteriously halted.

Now, Hossein wants his family back together. He promises Shayda more freedom. But his desire for reconciliation is driven more by jealousy and shame than love.

Shame is the underlying theme of the film. Both Shayda and Hossein are ensnared by cultural and religious expectations. While Hossein blindly adheres to the social contract of a violent patriarchy, Shayda courageously defies societal norms.

During a phone call with her mother in Tehran, Shayda learns of the shame her family endures due to her defiant actions.

The film also delves into themes of loss, both of one’s homeland and familial ties left behind.

One of the film’s most compelling aspects is its timeliness. Shayda serves as a testament to the enduring strength of Iranian women fighting for their basic rights, resonating powerfully against the backdrop of the ongoing women’s revolution in Iran.

Read more:
Not ‘powerless victims’: how young Iranian women have long led a quiet revolution

Hope and rejuvenation

The film abounds with details that enrich the narrative. Moments like mother and daughter playfully performing television aerobics eloquently convey Shayda’s deep connection with her daughter.

As Nowruz, the Persian New Year, approaches, Shayda tries to celebrate with her daughter and her friends while confronting the prospect of new romance and unrestricted freedoms. The palpable chemistry between Shayda and her Iranian-Canadian love interest, Farhad (Mojean Aria), unfolds against the backdrop of cultural disparities and the violence of Hossein, which threatens to sever their connection.

A haircut scene holds profound significance as Shayda chops off her hair in a desperate bid for freedom, symbolising a new beginning and the arrival of Nowruz. Shayda’s gift to Mona of a goldfish becomes a symbol of hope. The sprouting of seeds on the window sill and the preparation of Persian food and sweets reflect the migrants’ connection to their homelands. These scenes beautifully capture the essence of Nowruz.

The film subtly unveils the harsh reality of domestic violence amid migration and cultural difference through minimal dialogue and nuanced storytelling. Drawing from the filmmaker’s personal experiences, Niasari’s sensitive direction reveals layers of Shayda’s character and story, making her both relatable and magnetic.

Sherwin Akbarzadeh’s cinematography is breathtaking, juxtaposing the suburban Australian landscape with the sombre tones of a dimly lit domestic interior. Subtle hints of colour and closeup shots of household objects immerse us in the daily life within the women’s shelter.

The supporting cast delivers robust performances, infusing the narrative with authenticity and emotion.

For those tempted to leave the cinema before the credits roll, don’t. The inclusion of scenes from the director’s home videos, featuring a young girl who appears to be the director herself dancing in the living room of the women’s shelter while her mother talks candidly to the camera, reinforces the film’s intensity with the affecting resonances of a documentary.

Niasari’s dedication to her mother and all the courageous women of Iran permeates every frame of this film.

Shayda is in cinemas from today.

Read more:
How photography can reveal, overlook and manipulate truth: the fearless work of Australian Iranian artist Hoda Afshar

Cherine Fahd does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Shayda: this unflinching portrayal of domestic violence marks a profound shift in Australian cinema – https://theconversation.com/shayda-this-unflinching-portrayal-of-domestic-violence-marks-a-profound-shift-in-australian-cinema-212535

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna Boucher, Associate Professor in Public Policy and Political Science, University of Sydney

Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil has railed against the exploitation of Australia’s migration system, saying it has been “used to perpetrate some of the worst crimes to humanity, sexual slavery and human trafficking”.

After releasing a long-awaited review into the country’s immigration and visa system, conducted by former Victoria Police commissioner Christine Nixon, O’Neil pledged to take immediate action against the offences revealed in the report.

The government has committed to spending an additional $50 million to create a new division in the Department of Home Affairs to increase immigration compliance resources by 43% this financial year.

This is in addition to legislation it has already introduced to strengthen employer compliance measures to protect temporary migrants from exploitation.

But the Nixon review goes further, with more than 30 recommendations. The government agreed with many of the recommendations in its response. Responses on other points are still pending.

This is a strong review and it’s quite considered. Importantly, it has placed the compliance dimension into the visa processing system instead of keeping it mainly within Australian Border Force.

Read more:
‘I’m really stuck’: how visa conditions prevent survivors of modern slavery from getting help

Cracking down on misconduct by migration agents

Among its recommendations, the Nixon review called for strengthening the compliance and investigative powers of the Office of the Migration Agents Registration Authority to address misconduct by registered migration agents. It also called for an increase in the financial penalties for misconduct related to migration advice.

The government agreed with both recommendations in its response.

Compared with other countries’ laws on illegal migration assistance, Australia has longer terms of imprisonment for offenders, but its financial penalties are much lower, the review said. It noted:

[Registered migration agents] may perceive that engaging in such illegal activity is low risk, and high reward.

The migration agent sector is not highly regulated. Registered migration agents are not trained at the same level as solicitors, yet they are giving sophisticated advice in a very complex area of public policy with high stake outcomes.

As such, any further regulation of this sector is a good thing and giving the Office of the Migration Agents Registration Authority stronger powers would be important.

There are different ways to improve the system, such as greater oversight, more compliance checks and harsher penalties, increasing the periods of training for migration agents, and the use of disciplinary panels. In serious cases, the criminal law should also be used, if appropriate.

Some kind of financial risk for engaging in the behaviour seen in the Trafficked series by the Nine news outlets is a potentially strong punishment, if it is enforced appropriately.

The review also said overseas migration agents are currently not required to be registered with the Office of the Migration Agents Registration Authority to provide immigration advice, which it recommended changing.

A ban on temporary migrants in the sex industry?

The review noted that temporary workers are at the greatest risk of employer abuse and exploitation, particularly those who are trafficked to Australia to work in the sex industry.

Among its recommendations, the review said the government should look at how other countries address the heightened risk of exploitation in the sex industry. Canada, for instance, has implemented a ban on any temporary migrants working in this sector.

The review recommended a similar ban in Australia, as well as increased penalties for those found to be hiring temporary migrants for the sex industry, saying:

The prohibition of temporary migrants working in the sex industry would send a strong and clear message that the Australian government has no tolerance for the exploitation of temporary migrants.

The government disagreed with both of these recommendations in its response, saying a ban might not be in accordance with Australia’s international rights obligations.

Sexual exploitation has distinctive dimensions – it sometimes involves sexual assault and sexual harassment, combined with underpayment and other types of abuse, such as racism.

Read more:
Forced labour, sexual exploitation and forced marriage: modern slavery in Australia hides in plain sight

One reading of this particular Nixon recommendation is that it is puritanical. Why focus on the sex industry and not other sectors? Is this because these victims are viewed as being more worthy of protection, or is this a more serious form of exploitation because sex is more likely to be involved?

Some advocates in the sex industry, such as the Scarlet Alliance), believe a full ban would not stop exploitation in the sex industry, it would just drive it further underground. It may also make it harder for victims to speak out, especially in cases of modern slavery.

Further, in some states, such as NSW, there are quite progressive laws around the regulation of sex work compared to other countries. So, this regulation would create a distinction between Australians and permanent residents who engage in “safer” sex work and those on temporary visas.

This could result in a split in the industry between work that is appropriately regulated and quite well protected and that which is essentially unlawful.

In short, while sexual exploitation of temporary migrants is egregious, upsetting and worrisome, it needs to be addressed in ways that do not create perverse incentives or worsen exploitation risks.

Reducing backlogs in visa processing

The Nixon review also focused on the lengthy processing times for some visa subclasses, which it said cumulatively could last up to a decade.

There’s a clear link between government under-funding, visa processing backlogs and compliance issues. The backlogs create an incentive to engage in fraudulent asylum claims because claimants have appeal rights for longer periods of time.

In this way, a bridging visa that is issued pending an Administrative Appeals Tribunal (AAT) decision can act like a quasi-work visa. During this time, short-term migrants with limited opportunities for visa extensions or work are open to labour market exploitation.

Read more:
Immigration system set for overhaul in wake of review’s damning findings

So, cracking down on backlogs in appeal processes to avoid visa extensions where they are not appropriate is a broader part of the exploitation puzzle. This seems to be a part of the government’s agenda.

The review again recommended looking overseas and examining whether Canada’s approach to refugee claims – in particular, its more streamlined ineligibility assessment process – could be replicated here. (The government agreed with this recommendation.)

However, Canada’s approach to the bulk processing of certain claims, including with the use of artificial intelligence, has raised concerns around procedural fairness and led to litigation. Avoiding such pitfalls would need to be considered by the Australian government.

Finally, better funding of the Administrative Appeals Tribunal is another big part of reducing the misuse of appeals processes for fraudulent claims.

The Nixon review and the government’s response have been described by Immigration Minister Andrew Giles as “a generational investment in immigration compliance”. This appears to be an accurate assessment. Naturally, building an evidence base and cultural capacity to implement these changes will be an important part of the next step.

Anna Boucher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Visa exploitation review urges tougher penalties and a ban on temporary migrants in sex work. Would this solve the problem? – https://theconversation.com/visa-exploitation-review-urges-tougher-penalties-and-a-ban-on-temporary-migrants-in-sex-work-would-this-solve-the-problem-214953

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kaighin McColl, Assistant Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences and Environmental Science and Engineering, Harvard University

For generations, Australians have been fascinated with the idea of turning our inland deserts green with lush vegetation.

Both sides of politics have supported proposals to irrigate the country’s centre by turning northern rivers inland. Proponents have argued water lost to evaporation would rise through the atmosphere and fall back as rain, spreading the benefits throughout the desert. But this claim has hardly ever been tested.

Our recently published research shows irrigating Australia’s deserts would not increase rainfall, contrary to a century of claims otherwise.

This provides a new argument against irrigating Australia’s deserts, in addition to critiques on economic and environmental grounds.

Read more:
‘New Bradfield’: rerouting rivers to recapture a pioneering spirit

The Bradfield scheme

Proposals to irrigate the country’s centre by diverting water inland date back to at least the 1930s. The person most widely credited with the idea is John Bradfield, the civil engineer who designed the Sydney Harbour Bridge. He proposed a series of dams and tunnels that would transport water from northern Queensland to Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre.

Variants of the original scheme have been proposed as recently as 2020. The Queensland Liberal National Party campaigned on a policy to build a Bradfield-like scheme in the last state election.

Despite our fascination with it, the Bradfield scheme has well-documented problems. It is not cost-effective and would likely be a disaster for the environment. These findings have been confirmed repeatedly by multiple reviews, as recently as 2022.

Yet the idea resurfaces over and over again and the debate around it remains active and ongoing.

Crossbencher Bob Katter, the federal member for Kennedy in Queensland, is a prominent supporter of the scheme. He rejected the critical findings of a recent CSIRO review that found the scheme and others like it were not economically viable.

Read more:
Curious Kids: why can’t we just build a pipe to move water to areas in drought?

Would it increase rainfall?

Would the Bradfield scheme increase rainfall in central Australia? Given all the debate about the scheme, this question has received surprisingly little attention.

Bradfield argued the added irrigation water would effectively double or triple the region’s rainfall:

This irrigation water would augment the average rainfall of the district from 10 to 20 inches per annum […] Sceptics and croakers say the water will evaporate or seep away […] [but] it will not go far.

To test Bradfield’s claim, we turned to climate models. In a collaboration between scientists at the University of Melbourne, Harvard University, National Taiwan University and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, we simulated two worlds: one with a Bradfield-like scheme and one without it.

In our model of the Bradfield-like scheme, we permanently filled the region around Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre with water. That differs a bit from Bradfield’s original scheme but captures the basic idea. If anything, it is more extreme than Bradfield’s scheme. If Bradfield is right, we would expect our scheme’s effects on rainfall to be even larger.

Our simulations showed no significant increase in rainfall. This may sound surprising but can be explained with basic physical arguments.

Why no rain?

Rain forms when moist air rises. As it rises, temperatures drop, water condenses from vapour to liquid and clouds form.

Hot air rises, so high temperatures near the surface can promote rainfall. But in our simulations, irrigating the surface led to evaporative cooling of the air. The colder air did not rise as much, and rainfall was suppressed.

Where does all that extra water go? In our simulations, the water evaporated and was blown all over the Australian continent by wind. The additional water ended up being spread thinly over a large area. When it did eventually rain out, the effect on local rainfall was tiny.

Climate models aren’t perfect and have known weaknesses in simulating rainfall. But the basic explanation for the small change in rainfall can be understood without appealing to climate models.

Could irrigating a larger region, or a different part of the country, change the results? Maybe, and we are looking into it. But the Bradfield scheme is already not cost effective. Making the scheme larger or moving it away from natural flow paths would only make this problem worse.

Previous reviews of the Bradfield scheme have mainly focused on the economics of the scheme. Australian economist Ross Garnaut’s report in December 2022 is the most recent to find the scheme is economically unviable.

Our study provides a new argument against the Bradfield scheme, separate to economic arguments.

The idea of transforming our dry continent is seductive. But our study shows no plausible engineering scheme would be capable of making it rain enough to do so.

Read more:
We can’t drought-proof Australia, and trying is a fool’s errand

Kaighin McColl receives funding from the National Science Foundation, NASA, the Sloan Foundation, the Sahara Project, and Harvard University.

Dongryeol Ryu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Bradfield’s pipedream: irrigating Australia’s deserts won’t increase rainfall, new modelling shows – https://theconversation.com/bradfields-pipedream-irrigating-australias-deserts-wont-increase-rainfall-new-modelling-shows-211768

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lester Munson, Non-resident fellow, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney

US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has been ousted – by his own Republican Party – from the second-most important post in the American government.

It was the first time in US history a speaker had been voted out in this way. As speaker of the House of Representatives, McCarthy was the most powerful single individual in the legislative branch, able to directly impact government policies from national security to infrastructure investments.

In the next few days, the House of Representatives will attempt to elect a new speaker. All other business is postponed until the speakership is resolved. This process is likely to be lengthy, awkward and difficult to watch.

The next few days will be a not-very-subtle reminder to the world that American politics remain divided and divisive.

Read more:
Kevin McCarthy’s leadership is an open question as budget shutdown looms and GOP infighting takes center stage

Why did McCarthy lose his position?

The root causes of McCarthy’s exit are many – naked ambition, personal animus, the narrow majority of House Republicans, the confidence of the far-right wing of the Republican Party, Democrats’ willingness to step aside during the Republican turmoil and the apparently unending appeal of performative politics in the US.

The immediate author of McCarthy’s removal is his chief antagonist, Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida, who called for the vote to “vacate the chair”. Gaetz is a right-wing, Trump loyalist, political performer who has become a notorious disrupter in the US government.

Gaetz has been under scrutiny himself after it was reported two years ago that the US Department of Justice was investigating him for alleged sex trafficking. The case was closed earlier this year, without any charges being brought.

No one is talking about those allegations today. Most political operatives expect Gaetz to use his new-found “success” in the House to run for governor of Florida in 2026 when the current governor and Republican presidential candidate, Ron DeSantis, is due to leave office due to term limits.

Will the chaos hurt Republicans?

The chaos that is now roiling the House follows several weeks of brinkmanship over the budget, with a government shutdown narrowly avoided over the weekend.

Add to the mix a Republican presidential front runner (Donald Trump) facing 91 charges over four criminal cases and a multitude of court appearances over the next few months, and the political dysfunction in the United States may only get more intense.

President Joe Biden and the Democrats in Congress likely enjoy seeing their opponents slaughter each other. And indeed, the disarray among Republicans may help Democrats stay unified despite their own internal tensions.

Republicans, however, have not always suffered at the ballot box following congressional melees. After a GOP-led government shutdown during the Obama administration in 2013, Republicans won control of the Senate in 2014.

Also, Biden isn’t getting any younger and it is not entirely clear he can handle the full-time job of American commander-in-chief until 2028. There are plenty of competent Gen-X Democrats – the governors of California, Michigan and Pennsylvania leap to mind – who may not stay quiet as Biden’s age becomes more of an issue in the lead-up to next year’s election.

If one of these ambitious youngsters decides to throw their hat in the ring, the Democrats may show the world their own version of chaos.

Foreign capitals no doubt see this turmoil and question the long-term reliability of Washington. Is it a harbinger of Trump’s return to the White House? Maybe so. Or just as likely – the Republican chaos turns off the swing voters in American suburbs and they become more willing to vote for Biden, the ageing incumbent.

In other words, American voters remain divided right down the middle.

Read more:
America’s leaders are older than they’ve ever been. Why didn’t the founding fathers foresee this as a problem?

Lester Munson receives funding from and is a Non-Resident Fellow at the United States Studies Centre. He is affiliated with BGR Group, a government relations firm in Washington, D.C. He is also adjunct faculty at Johns Hopkins University.

– ref. Why was the US House speaker just ousted from his job? And what does it mean for the Republican Party? – https://theconversation.com/why-was-the-us-house-speaker-just-ousted-from-his-job-and-what-does-it-mean-for-the-republican-party-214941

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Roy, Lecturer in Education, University of Newcastle

The Royal Commission into Violence, Abuse, Neglect and Exploitation of People with Disability has shared its final report. In this series, we unpack what the commission’s 222 recommendations could mean for a more inclusive Australia.

There were more than 200 recommendations for federal and state governments to consider within the Royal Commission into Violence, Abuse, Neglect and Exploitation of People with Disability’s final report, released on Friday.

A great deal of focus has been on housing, employment and education. However, the very first recommendation is for a new disability rights act. This recommendation, if adopted, may have the greatest impact of all.

Here’s why it’s needed.

Conventions, rights and Australian law

Australia is a signatory to the seven core International Human Rights treaties and has ratified them all (meaning we’ve voluntarily accepted legal obligations under international law). Once it ratifies a treaty, Australia is obliged to ensure its domestic laws comply with it.

The seven treaties include the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disability, signed in 2007. In addition, we have the 1992 Disability Discrimination Act and we are a signatory to the Salamanca Statement on the right of every child to education.

However there has been ongoing criticism of Australia for not fully abiding by the international treaties we have signed.

The difference between discrimination and rights

The Disability Discrimination Act is a reactive law. It comes into force when discrimination is already allegedly happening. The problem with this form of “formal equity” is it can reinforce inequity, even as it seeks to address it. It’s focus is not achieving equal outcomes or opportunities.

In its final report, the disability royal commission affirmed a commitment to make the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities a reality in Australian law.

A disability rights act would enshrine in law the ability to make proactive, positive actions to ensure inclusion, support and long term structural changes. A rights act would additionally support First Nation peoples with disability giving them additional protection that is culturally sensitive, as stated in the Royal Commission Report.

Read more:
The disability royal commission heard horrific stories of harm – now we must move towards repair

Reasonable adjustment versus undue burden

One major challenge to breaking down barriers to inclusion and equity is the phrase “reasonable accommodation”, which is outlined in the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities as:

necessary and appropriate modification and adjustments not imposing a disproportionate or undue burden […] to ensure to persons with disabilities the enjoyment or exercise on an equal basis with others of all human rights and fundamental freedoms […]

These are often termed “reasonable adjustments”.

But are the changes to ensure inclusion “reasonable”? How can we tell?

This interpretation has been criticised because reasonable adjustment is intended to mean what is reasonable for the person faced with the barrier. But it’s usually interpreted as meaning what’s reasonable for the provider – say, a school, employer, accommodation or service organisation.

A new disability rights act would change the burden of proof. If a business, school system or care provide did not offer inclusive supports and adjustment, they would need to prove it was an undue burden on them. The commission said:

As presently drafted, the [Disability Discrimination Act] creates little incentive for employers, schools, service providers and other duty-holders to take active measures to prevent disability discrimination.

Commissioners said one of the main deficiencies of the disability discrimination act is that:

the protection of a person’s rights depends on that person being prepared to make and pursue a complaint […] to have the knowledge and personal resources to pursue the claim, including the risk of an adverse costs order should the matter reach court.

Read more:
Disability royal commissioners disagreed over phasing out ‘special schools’ – that leaves segregation on the table

Why a disability rights act is important

Under current policies and practices, people with a disability are not sufficiently involved with decision making and the development of laws and policies. This is contrary to the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities.

A disability rights act would enshrine the requirement for people with a disability to be at the centre of any changes being made.

There also needs to be agreement across all sectors as to what constitutes disability for a rights act to be implemented. There are still today, those that question the diagnosis of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and systems that conflate indicators between disabilites. If there isn’t a consistent definition, people and organisations can ignore or redefine disability based on their opinion, not community consensus or law.

A disability rights act would create a societal climate of positive action, to remove barriers before complaint, and for all aspects of society to promote meaningful equality and actively eliminate discrimination.

In the true spirit of inclusion, it could change societal attitudes and put supporting people with a disability at the core of all processes, rather than an afterthought – whether in the employment, education, housing, sport or legal sectors. It would break the vicious circle of disadvantage and exclusion.

Read more:
When is a condition ‘chronic’ and when is it a ‘disability’? The definition can determine the support you get

A flow-on effect to all the recommendations

In their final education recommendations, a key division emerged among the commissioners. Indeed this split also exists within the education sector.

Three of the commissioners said all children with a disability should be taught in mainstream settings and segregated settings should be closed. In this way, the streaming of exclusion that often leads to a lifetime of isolation from wider society could be disrupted.

A disability rights act would ensure segregated settings and potential educational deficiencies (whether in specialist or mainstream schools) would be challenged by a social model of disability rather than an archaic medical model, which focuses on specific diagnoses. It would empower us to break from the current failing systems and change the lens through which we see each other.

Creating a disability rights act would mean that if mainstream schools are not suitable for many children with a disability, then we would change the schools and the systems – not remove “certain” children.

David Roy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Here’s why we need a disability rights act – not just a disability discrimination one – https://theconversation.com/heres-why-we-need-a-disability-rights-act-not-just-a-disability-discrimination-one-214715

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kenny Travouillon, Curator of Mammals, Western Australian Museum

Recently, several mammals have been reported to “glow” under ultraviolet (UV) light, including our beloved platypus. But no one knew how common it was among mammals until now.

Our research, published in Royal Society Open Science today, found this glow – known as fluorescence – is extremely common. Almost every mammal we studied showed some form of fluorescence.

We also examined the glow to determine if it was really fluorescence and not some other phenomenon. Then, we tested if the fluorescence we observed in museum specimens was natural and not caused by preservation methods.

We also searched for links between the type and degree of fluorescence and the lifestyle of each species, to gain insights on whether there are any benefits to glowing under UV if you’re a mammal.

Nightclub lights

Nightclub visitors will be familiar with white clothes, or perhaps their gin and tonic, glowing blue under UV light. This is a great example of fluorescence – when the energy from UV light, which is a form of electromagnetic radiation invisible to humans, is absorbed by certain chemicals.

These chemicals then emit visible light, which is lower-energy electromagnetic radiation. In the case of gin and tonic, this is due to the presence of the quinine molecule in the tonic water.

In the case of animals, this can be due to proteins or pigments in their scales, skin or fur. Fluorescence is quite common among animals. It has been reported for birds, reptiles, amphibians, fish, corals, molluscs and most famously scorpions and other arthropods.

However, it has been described less frequently in mammals, although recent studies have provided several examples. We already knew that bones and teeth glow with fluorescence, as do white human hair and nails. Some rodents have a pink glow under UV light and platypuses glow blue-green.

Read more:
Explainer: what is the electromagnetic spectrum?

How often do mammals glow?

Our team came together because we were curious about fluorescence in mammals. We wanted to know if the glow reported recently for various species was really fluorescence, and how widespread this phenomenon was. We obtained preserved and frozen specimens from museums and wildlife parks to study.

We started with the platypus to see if we could replicate the previously reported fluorescence. We photographed preserved and frozen platypus specimens under UV light and observed a fluorescent (although rather faint) glow.

To make sure it was fluorescence and not some other effect that looked like it, we used a technique called fluorescence spectroscopy.

This involved shining various sources of light at the samples and recording the specific “fingerprints” of the resulting glow, known as an emission spectrum. This way, we could confirm what we saw was indeed fluorescence.

We repeated this process for other mammals and found clear evidence of fluorescence in the white fur, spines and even skin and nails of koalas, Tasmanian devils, short-beaked echidnas, southern hairy-nosed wombats, quendas (bandicoots), greater bilbies and even cats.

Both fresh-frozen and chemically treated museum specimens were fluorescent. This meant it wasn’t preservation chemicals such as borax or arsenic causing the fluorescence. So, we concluded this was a real biological phenomenon.

Mammals in dazzling lights

Using specimens from the Western Australian Museum’s collection, we took the experiment to the next stage. We recorded every species of mammal that was fluorescent when we exposed the specimens to UV light.

As a result, we found 125 fluorescent species of mammal, representing all known orders. Fluorescence is clearly common and widely distributed among mammals.

In particular, we noticed that white and light-coloured fur is fluorescent, with dark pigmentation preventing fluorescence. For example, a zebra’s white stripes fluoresced while the dark stripes didn’t.

Read more:
Zebra’s stripes are a no fly zone for flies

We then used our dataset to test if fluorescence might be more common in nocturnal species. To do this, we correlated the total area of fluorescence with ecological traits such as nocturnality, diet and locomotion.

Nocturnal mammals were indeed more fluorescent, while aquatic species were less fluorescent than those that burrowed, lived in trees, or on land.

Based on our results, we think fluorescence is very common in mammals. In fact, it is likely the default status of hair unless it is heavily pigmented. This doesn’t mean fluorescence has a biological function – it may just be an artefact of the structural properties of unpigmented hair.

However, we suggest florescence may be important for brightening pale-coloured parts of animals that are used as visual signals. This could improve their visibility, especially in poor light – just like the fluorescent optical brighteners that are added to white paper and clothing.

Kenny Travouillon received funding from the Australian Biological Resources Study and is an adjunct at Curtin University.

Christine Elizabeth Cooper receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Jemmy Bouzin receives funding from the Government of Seychelles.

Linette Umbrello receives funding from the Australian Biological Resources Study and is a Research Associate at the Western Australian Museum.

Simon Lewis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. From glowing cats to wombats, fluorescent mammals are much more common than you’d think – https://theconversation.com/from-glowing-cats-to-wombats-fluorescent-mammals-are-much-more-common-than-youd-think-214584

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rebecca Strating, Director, La Trobe Asia and Associate Professor, La Trobe University, La Trobe University

In late September, American rap legend MC Hammer made a spectacular intervention into Australia’s upcoming referendum to establish a Voice to Parliament for First Nations people. In a tweet, he urged Australians to “repair the breach”.

Hammer’s tweet garnered some 1.1 million views, 1,300 retweets and 5,700 likes. It also triggered a wave of online criticisms from “no” supporters. Some accused him of being a “one-hit wonder” with no place in the debate.

While Hammer seemed to enter the fray on his own accord, Labor’s recruitment of retired American basketballer Shaquille O’Neal to the campaign in support of the Voice to Parliament last year drew similarly mixed reactions.

While it is not yet clear whether these endorsements from overseas celebrities help or hinder the “yes” campaign, there are bigger questions here about the extent of global attention on the referendum and whether the result will affect Australia’s international reputation.

International attention on the vote

On October 14, Australians will vote whether to amend the Constitution to establish a new advisory body for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people called the Voice to Parliament. The new body would provide advice and make representations to parliament and the government on any issues relating to First Nations people. If the referendum passes, the body’s powers would be set by federal parliament.

The Voice model has been fiercely debated in Australia. Supporters say it will help remedy a litany of failed policies in health care, employment and education for First Nations people, while opponents claim it is divisive.

Read more:
A divided Australia will soon vote on the most significant referendum on Indigenous rights in 50 years

Using data from Meltwater, a global media monitoring company, we have identified more than 1.7 million mentions of the Voice to Parliament referendum in traditional and social media globally over the last three months. Much of this has been generated in Australia, where the Voice has been mentioned 887,000 times.

Once we exclude content generated in Australia and unknown locations, the number of mentions drops to around 148,000 in the last three months.

International attention on the Voice for Parliament referendum peaked on August 30 when Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the voting date. Global news outlets such as the BBC, Time and Financial Times produced explainers for their audiences.

More recently, global reporting has interrogated the “backlash” against the referendum, as well as the spread of disinformation online, as polls have suggested declining support nationwide.

Which countries are the most interested?

Most news and social media mentions of the Voice were generated in “Anglosphere” countries, such as the United States, United Kingdom and Canada. Meltwater data had the US well out in front with over 63,000 mentions of the Voice in the last three months, with the UK second at just over 16,000. New Zealand is also following the debate, with more than 2,000 mentions, as well as politicians in the Pacific.

Launches and rallies in support of the “yes” campaign have also been held in the US and UK, receiving online attention:

But the Meltwater data is restricted to English, and can only reveal so much about how much attention people in other countries are paying to the Voice referendum.

And while there are public reports on Australian attitudes to other countries, there is much less research on how people in other countries think about Australians.

Previous research by Professor Simon Jackman shows a general sense of ambivalence towards Australia’s national character among people in Japan, South Korea, China, Indonesia and the US. The lack of research on Australia’s reputation in other countries will make it difficult to assess the impact of the Voice result.

What does seem likely, however, is that a “no” result will be weaponised by other countries against Australia. While the Global Times, a leading Chinese English-language news outlet, has been relatively quiet on the Voice so far, it has a history of using strategic narratives to blunt criticisms of China’s human rights record.

For example, China has cited the gaps in health, life expectancy and incarceration rates between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians as a way to criticise Australia’s “systematic discrimination and oppression” of First Nations people in international forums such as the UN Human Rights Council.

The Global Times has also reported on the effects of colonialism on First Nations people, the deaths of First Nations people in custody and the destruction of cultural sites such as Juukan Gorge.

The groundwork for using strategic narratives around the Voice has already been laid. Albert Zhang and Danielle Cave from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute have tracked how inauthentic social media accounts that are likely linked to the Chinese Communist Party have sought to amplify “division over the Indigenous voice referendum”. This is also a central message being used by the “no” campaign to argue against the Voice.

A “no” result will make countering these hostile narratives more difficult. In addition, it would likely compromise Australia’s moral authority when it seeks to advocate or pressure other states on human rights issues.

Read more:
Despite its Pacific ‘step-up’, Australia is still not listening to the region, new research shows

Australia’s foreign policy

The referendum result could also affect Australia’s ability to employ a foreign policy approach that seeks to “elevate” Indigenous people and issues.

In 2021, Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade released an Indigenous Diplomacy Agenda committed to reconciliation in Australia and supporting Indigenous rights globally.

At the time, DFAT Secretary Frances Adamson cast First Nations people as key to how Australia defines and expresses itself globally. She argued a foreign service that properly represents the diversity of Australia has “a genuine competitive advantage”.

Foreign Minister Penny Wong has also sought to centre and value First Nations people in Australia’s modern identity and diplomacy, including in international speeches. To the UN General Assembly last week, she said Australia draws “on the knowledge of First Peoples carrying forward the oldest continuing culture on earth”.

As a result, a “yes” vote could provide Australian diplomats with “the momentum” to embed a First Nations foreign policy into their practice. A “no” vote, meanwhile, will make it more difficult to establish Australia as a credible leader on Indigenous and human rights issues, particularly in its relations with neighbours in Asia and the Pacific.

How to position the Voice internationally may become a problem for the government as polling has shown dwindling support for the measure.

When questioned by CNN’s Christiane Amanpour about what the low support for the Voice means for Australia’s commitment to Indigenous people, Wong responded:

referenda are hard to win in Australia because of the nature of how our voting [works], of what is required to change the Constitution. But, you know, we remain hopeful.

This points to the government’s careful international messaging as the success of the referendum – which the Labor government supports – becomes less certain.

If the “no” vote succeeds, as polling suggests is likely, it will be interesting to observe how other governments and people around the world respond to the result (if at all) and how the Australian government will seek to manage any international fallout.

Rebecca Strating receives funding from a La Trobe University Synergy grant for this project. She is a recipient of external grant funding, including from the governments of Australia, United States, United Kingdom, the Philippines and Taiwan.

Andrea Carson receives funding from a La Trobe University Synergy grant for this project and from the Australian Research Council for a Discovery project on media and political trust.

Simon Jackman is a past recipient of grants from the National Science Foundation (USA) and was one of the principal investigators of the Australian Election Survey (funded by the Australian Research Council).

– ref. How might the First Nations Voice to Parliament referendum affect Australia’s international reputation? – https://theconversation.com/how-might-the-first-nations-voice-to-parliament-referendum-affect-australias-international-reputation-213764

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gemma Hamilton, Senior Lecturer, RMIT University

Last month, That 70s Show actor Danny Masterson was found guilty of raping two women in the early 2000s. However, the jury could not reach a verdict on a third allegation of rape involving Masterson’s former girlfriend. The case, along with countless others, points to the challenges in understanding and responding to cases of intimate partner sexual violence.

Intimate partner sexual violence refers to sexual harm and/or abuse perpetrated by a current or former partner. It can include rape and sexual assault, as well as a broader range of sexually harmful behaviours.

For example, victim survivors in our recent study included the following in their definitions of intimate partner sexual violence:

• unwanted sexual acts
• sexual harassment
• image-based abuse (such as taking nude or intimate images without consent)
• control of victim survivor’s sexual health and reproductive decision-making.

Read more:
Rape, sexual assault and sexual harassment: what’s the difference?

It was evident in our research that consent became complicated and blurred in conjunction with broader patterns of coercive control. Victim survivors often described reluctantly agreeing to sexual behaviours in order to placate an otherwise violent partner, or as a mechanism for preventing other forms of abuse from occurring or escalating.

Australian statistics estimate that more than a third of sexual assaults occur within the context of family and domestic violence.

Yet, these rates are likely to be an underestimation, as intimate partner sexual violence can be difficult to recognise and disclose. This may, in part, be due to the enduring rape myth that “real rape” only occurs between strangers in a dark alleyway.

Some victim survivors in our study described not knowing how to put their experience into words. They felt they needed a safe and trusted space, and a rapport built with a specialist worker before they could feel comfortable talking about sexual harm.

For others, it was not until months or years later, when they were out of an abusive relationship, that they realised the extent of sexual harm and its ongoing impact on their life and future relationships.

Our study, along with previous research, has found a range of harms caused by intimate partner sexual violence.

These include:

• physical injuries
• mental health impacts (for example, depression, anxiety, Post Traumatic Stress Disorder [PTSD], suicidal ideation)
• physical reactions to trauma (such as eating and sleeping disorders, obsessive compulsiveness)
• relationship difficulties (for example, the loss of social support and reluctance to enter new intimate and sexual relationships).

As one victim survivor in our study explained,

I am four years out now and I’m still not healed from it. I’ve been diagnosed with PTSD […] emotionally, he’s destroyed me.

Responding to intimate partner sexual violence

Research indicates limitations in current service responses to intimate partner sexual violence. For example, sexual assaults involving strangers are much more likely to proceed through the criminal justice system compared to sexual assaults perpetrated by acquaintances and intimate partners.

When it comes to support systems, our report highlights several areas in need of improvement. Firstly, Victorian victim survivors and stakeholders explained that family violence systems are often designed to focus on the immediate and short-term needs of victim survivors, such as housing. While this is extremely important, it often means that long-term needs, such as therapeutic support for sexual harm, are not met.

Second, many people who work in the sector described current gaps in their knowledge and confidence in responding to intimate partner sexual violence, highlighting a need for further training. Specialist sexual assault counsellors were frequently perceived as the gold standard for responding to sexual harm, yet it was repeatedly made clear they were often stretched to capacity.

Read more:
Almost 90% of sexual assault victims do not go to police — this is how we can achieve justice for survivors

Most participants agreed that further training for other frontline workers (such as health workers, family violence workers, police, justice, and legal workers) could help bridge the gap until victim survivors received specialised support. Therefore, cross-sector training was considered important, while upholding the importance of specialised sexual assault work.

Trauma-informed practice was consistently recommended. This included believing victim survivors, allowing time to listen to their story in full, and not judging or labelling their experiences.

Stakeholders also recommended broaching the topic of sexual harm gently and conversationally, with carefully chosen language. This would mean, for example, replacing terms such as rape, sexual assault and coercive control with simpler, softer language that actually explains the nature of harm more clearly.

Finally, our report indicates that resources are urgently needed to reduce waitlists and increase the capacity for specialist sexual violence counselling services for victim survivors of intimate partner sexual violence.

As one of our victim survivor participants said:

It took me time to open up […] So that I could completely heal from within. It’s their [the counsellor’s] support, that has helped me to change the trajectory of my life.

If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call 1800RESPECT on 1800 737 732. In immediate danger, call 000.

Dr. Gemma Hamilton receives funding from the Australian Research Council and Family Safety Victoria.

Anastasia Powell receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Criminology Research Council, Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety (ANROWS), and Family Safety Victoria. Anastasia is also a director of Our Watch (Australia’s national organisation for the prevention of violence against women), and a member of the National Women’s Safety Alliance (NWSA).

Georgina Heydon receives funding from federal and state governments for research into sexual violence responses.

Alexandra Ridgway does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘Emotionally, he’s destroyed me’: why intimate partner sexual violence needs to be taken as seriously as stranger rape – https://theconversation.com/emotionally-hes-destroyed-me-why-intimate-partner-sexual-violence-needs-to-be-taken-as-seriously-as-stranger-rape-214581

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Karleen Gribble, Adjunct Associate Professor, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Western Sydney University

Bushfires currently burning in Victoria, New South Wales and Tasmania bring into sharp focus the fire risks Australian families face over the coming summer months.

Although babies don’t understand the nature of emergencies such as bushfires, floods and cyclones, they and their mothers are impacted.

During natural disasters, electricity, clean water and food supplies may be interrupted, and gastroenteritis is common. At these times, breastfeeding provides babies with safe food, water, and protection from infection, as well as a feeling of comfort and safety.

But mothers can find it difficult to breastfeed during emergencies, and may believe stress affects their milk supply. Some end up stopping even though they didn’t plan to and even though during a disaster is a particularly bad time to wean.

The good news is stress doesn’t reduce milk supply, and while breastfeeding during an emergency carries added challenges, mothers can and do breastfeed through even the worst of disasters.

Demand and supply

During pregnancy, hormones develop the milk-making structures inside women’s breasts. After birth, the breasts automatically make milk to feed the baby, but over time they change to a demand and supply way of working.

This means that when the baby feeds and milk is removed from the breasts, the breasts make more milk. The more frequently milk is removed from the breasts, the more milk will be made.

Babies drink the milk made in the breasts with the help of a hormone called oxytocin. When babies suckle, oxytocin tells the muscle-like cells that surround the small structures where milk is made and stored to contract. This squeezes the milk towards the nipple where the baby can drink it.

Oxytocin is sometimes called the “love hormone” because it’s also produced when you feel lovingly towards someone.

Read more:
I regret stopping breastfeeding. How do I start again?

Stress doesn’t impact milk production

There isn’t any way for stress to interfere with the demand and supply process of milk making.

However, mothers often worry that the stress of an emergency has reduced their milk supply. Usually, this is because they are noticing their baby’s behaviour has changed.

During emergencies, babies are often more unsettled, want to be held more, feed more frequently, may be fussy at the breast, and wake more overnight. All of this is a normal response to the disruption of an emergency.

Although stress won’t hamper a mother’s milk supply, it can temporarily reduce oxytocin release, slowing the flow of milk. This is another reason a baby may be unsettled during feeding.

Some challenges

Emergencies like bushfires and floods are difficult for everyone, but can be especially challenging for parents of babies and toddlers.

For breastfeeding mothers, the busyness of an emergency and a lack of privacy may mean they miss their baby’s cues or delay breastfeeding. Less frequent breastfeeds can reduce milk supply.

Another factor that can affect milk supply is dehydration. Mothers may not drink enough water during an emergency because they’re focused on looking after their children, water is limited, or they are restricting water intake because there are no toilets.

How can I keep breastfeeding through an emergency?

Expect your baby to breastfeed more often than usual during an emergency. They may breastfeed for comfort as well as food. Keeping your baby close, breastfeeding frequently, and drinking enough water will protect your milk supply.

Know the signs that your baby is getting enough milk. If they have at least five heavily wet nappies in 24 hours, their wee is pale (not dark) in colour, and their poo is runny if they are only breastfed or soft if they are also eating solid foods, you can be confident your baby is getting enough breastmilk.

You can encourage the release of oxytocin and the flow of milk when you breastfeed by looking at your baby and thinking about how much you love them. This can also help you feel less stressed.

You can be reassured that if your milk supply has decreased because of less frequent breastfeeding or dehydration this can be easily reversed by feeding more often and drinking water. If you stopped breastfeeding because of an emergency, it’s possible to start again if you want to.

If you are concerned about your milk supply, seek help from a health worker. The free national breastfeeding helpline is available 24/7 and is a good place to find support.

Preparing for an emergency

Make an emergency plan that includes packing an evacuation kit, leaving early and evacuating to a relative or friend’s home rather than an evacuation centre if possible. Ensure your evacuation kit includes a baby sling to keep your baby safe and close, and some water and snacks for you.

If you are exclusively expressing milk, learn how to hand express and cup feed (even very young babies can be fed using a cup). Store some paper cups so you have all you need if you are without power and water for washing.

Read more:
Evacuating with a baby? Here’s what to put in your emergency kit

Anything emergency responders can do to reduce the burden of the emergency on mothers, such as prioritising them for services and offering them private spaces in evacuation centres, will help them to care for and breastfeed their babies. A free e-learning module for emergency responders on disaster support for babies, toddlers and their caregivers is available here.

Karleen Gribble is Project Lead on the Australian Breastfeeding Association’s Community Protection for Infants and Young Children in Bushfire Emergencies Project and is an Australian Breastfeeding Association Scientific Advisor, Educator and Counsellor. Karleen is also on the steering committee of the international interagency collaboration the Infant and Young Child Feeding in Emergencies Core Group and has been involved in the development of international guidance and training on infant and young child feeding in emergencies for over a decade. She is a member of the Public Health Association of Australia.

Michelle Hamrosi is the Community Engagement Officer on the Australian Breastfeeding Association’s Community Protection for Infants and Young Children in Bushfire Emergencies Project. Michelle is also a General Practitioner and an International Board Certified Lactation Consultant, as well as a Clinical Lecturer for the Australian National University’s Rural Medical School. Michelle volunteers as an ABA Breastfeeding Counsellor and Group Leader for the Australian Breastfeeding Association Eurobodalla Group. She is also a member of Doctors for the Environment, Climate and Health Alliance and Australian Parents for Climate Action.

Nina Chad is the Infant and Young Child Feeding Consultant for the Department of Nutrition and Food Safety at the World Health Organization. She has been a volunteer breastfeeding counsellor for the Australian Breastfeeding Association for more than 20 years.

– ref. No, stress won’t dry up your milk. How to keep breastfeeding your baby in an emergency – https://theconversation.com/no-stress-wont-dry-up-your-milk-how-to-keep-breastfeeding-your-baby-in-an-emergency-205031

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy Neal, Senior lecturer in Economics / Institute for Climate Risk and Response, UNSW Sydney

Scientists say severe climate change is now the greatest threat to humanity. Extreme weather is expected to upend lives and livelihoods, intensifying wildfires and pushing ecosystems towards collapse as ocean heatwaves savage coral reefs. The threats are far-reaching and widespread.

So what effect would you expect this to have on the economy in coming decades? It may surprise you, but most economic models predict climate change will just be a blip, with a minor impact on gross domestic product (GDP).

Heating the planet beyond 3℃ is extraordinarily dangerous. The last time Earth was that warm was three million years ago, when there was almost no ice and seas were 20 metres higher. But economic models predict even this level of heat to have very mild impacts on global GDP per capita by century’s end. Most predict a hit of around 1% to 7%, while the most pessimistic modelling suggests GDP shrinking by 23%.

In these models, some countries are completely unaffected by climate change. Others even benefit. For most countries, the damage is small enough to be offset by technological growth. Australia’s recent Intergenerational Report suggests something similar.

This, it is becoming abundantly clear, is a failure of the modelling. To make these models, economists reach into the past to model damage from weather. But severe climate change would be a global shock that is wholly outside our experience. Inevitably, models can’t come close to capturing the upheavals climate change could cause in markets fundamental to human life, such as agriculture.

Read more:
Intergenerational report highlights the threat of a hotter, less productive Australia due to global warming

Economic models aren’t capturing the reality

When the Intergenerational Report came out in August, it pictured what Australia would look like in 2063.

What would unchecked climate change mean for the economy? The report estimated what it would do to labour productivity –  Australia’s GDP would be lower by between A$135 and $423 billion. Over 40 years, that figure is actually vanishingly small, implying an average yearly effect of around 0.3% of today’s GDP.

The report stressed that a number of impacts of severe climate change were not modelled. Even so, it appears the damages that were included weren’t likely to be major economic concerns.

So why the disconnect between climate scientists and economists?

Most economic models in this area rely on a fundamental premise – that we can gain useful insight into future damage by looking at how economies have been hit by earlier weather shocks.

But there’s a fundamental limitation here. Historically, weather shocks tended to be local or regional. Even if there’s intense drought in, say, India, harvests will still be good elsewhere. And, for economists, that means you can potentially trade your way out of danger.

There is some truth to it. Almost every country – including Australia – uses international trade to cushion themselves from weather shocks. Even in regular years, large parts of the globe rely on imported food.

Here’s how it works. During the intense 2018–2020 drought in eastern Australia, wheat production across the country roughly halved compared to 2017.

In New South Wales and Queensland, the production of all grains fell below consumption levels. That forced these states to import grain, largely from Western Australia where the drought was not as severe.

But what would have happened if Australia’s western and eastern grain regions were hit by severe drought at the same time? Prices would rise significantly. Wholesalers would look to import grains from overseas.

But climate change makes it more and more likely that several parts of the world could be in severe drought at the same time. As Australian researchers have found, climate change could indeed lead to crop failures across multiple regions at once. If that happened, food prices would surge to unprecedented levels.

Read more:
What if several of the world’s biggest food crops failed at the same time?

You can see the early warning signs already. When there are food production shortfalls, the first thing exporters tend to do is stop exporting to try to keep down domestic prices. India did exactly this earlier this year because of damage to their crops from extreme weather. At a stroke, the world’s largest rice exporter stopped half their exports – and made it harder for other countries to trade their way out of food shortages. Top soy and corn producer Argentina had less to export this year too due to severe drought.

Already, the world’s surging growth in farm productivity has slowed to the lowest rate in 60 years. Yet the risk of global food insecurity is not captured in economic models of climate change.

Global shocks are greater than the sum of their parts

National security experts and the United Nations have warned climate change makes wars more likely, as countries fight over water, food or land. Climate change also threatens crop yields and damage to homes and infrastructure from extreme weather and sea level rise.

A collapse in biodiversity and mounting extinctions could also have fundamental implications for our economy. That’s to say nothing of labour productivity, health impacts, zoonotic virus spillover, and mass migration among other possibilities. These upheavals will interact in unpredictable ways.

When economists model how economies perform in the future, they often have to simplify by ignoring certain risks or variables. The Intergenerational Report did just this by focusing on the climate impact on labour productivity and crop yields.

But these kinds of damage can overlap and make others worse. Because our global economy is so tightly interwoven, what happens elsewhere affects us here in many ways, as we saw during the early COVID years and the global financial crisis.

We need better economic models of climate damage

So why, in 2023, are we still not properly accounting for the real risks? It’s hard, but it is possible. My research – as well as that of other other economists – is working towards building global weather shocks into modelling of what climate change will do to individual economies, which should radically change economic predictions.

In the meantime, when you see economic modelling suggesting climate change won’t do much, you should treat it with serious scepticism. Look at what is being modelled – and everything left out.

The impact of climate change on natural systems is well understood. We don’t know nearly as much about what it will do to human systems. We must hope the world decarbonises before we find out the hard way.

Timothy Neal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Have some economists severely underestimated the financial hit from climate change? Recent evidence suggests yes – https://theconversation.com/have-some-economists-severely-underestimated-the-financial-hit-from-climate-change-recent-evidence-suggests-yes-214579

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hannah Foley, PhD Candidate, University of Tasmania

In the darkness, a rumble. A sonorous boom. Deep within the subterranean caverns of MONA, a volcano stirs. This is Hrafntinna (Obsidian), an immersive installation by Icelandic artist and musician Jónsi.

While living in Los Angeles in 2021, pandemic restrictions prevented Jónsi (frontman of Sigur Rós) from experiencing firsthand the eruption of Fagradalsfjall, 40 km from his hometown of Reykjavik, Iceland.

Dormant for nearly 800 years, the volcano became a symbol of isolation for the artist, provoking a sense of disconnection with his homeland.

Inspired by this event, Hrafntinna (Obsidian) employs sensory triggers, sound and scent as vehicles for longing and connection across time and geographical distance.

Read more:
A volcano is erupting again in Iceland. Is climate change causing more eruptions?

To sense before seeing

Stepping into the blackened space, we wait for a burst of light to linger long enough to guide our path into the centre of the room, where a circular wooden bench awaits. A dim, round light, like an open crater above, provides the only illumination. Its brightness and hue subtly shift in synchronicity with the sound – flickering and flashing during moments of intensity.

An almost 360-degree installation of nearly 200 speakers offers true immersion into a sonic structure of choral harmonies, ethereal and reverent, accompanied by machinic vibrations of tectonic shifts, and simmering pops and hisses.

The bench vibrates with the low frequencies of a hidden subwoofer, transmitting the sound into our bones. A smoky scent settles upon us. It is the earthen aroma of fossilised amber, extracted from ancient tree resin that has been buried for millennia.

The installation is deeply affecting, with eyes open or closed.

Obsidian emerges from a growing wave of sensory-based works that signals a shift away from ocularcentrism (a prioritising of what we can see) within contemporary art and visual culture.

Rather than maintaining the primacy of sight, these works decentre the visual experience, instead creating affective encounters through sonic, tactile and olfactory elements.

Sight is often considered synonymous with our human objective reality. Understanding sensory experiences opens up the possibility of contemporary art that is firmly posthumanist.

As Jónsi’s Obsidian shows (whether intentionally or incidentally), experiential and sensory works create new opportunities for understanding or knowing, and new possibilities for art to facilitate empathetic connections across great distances – and beyond the human.

Through surround sound installation and vibration, Jónsi creates what composer Trevor Wishart might call a “virtual acoustic space” in which we can create an internal landscape. Here, we are deep inside the belly of a far away volcano, which neither the artist nor we have seen.

As I sit and feel the resonance of the work in my body, I am reminded of historian Donna Haraway’s notion of “intimacy without proximity” as a “practice of caring without the neediness of touching”.

While Jónsi may have been motivated by a feeling of longing, perhaps, through the making process, he did (in some loopy material way) pull himself closer to the source of his desire.

Transcending thresholds of time and place

The smoky aroma combined with the sound is transporting – not only across distance, but through time.

The scent of fossilised amber conjures an ancient memory from the earth. The low frequency sounds evoke transcendence from human timescales into deep, geological time.

In a more intimately embodied way, this sense of primal knowing is also carried through the choral sections of the piece. When I spoke to Jónsi, he described the voice as “the very first instrument we had”:

it touches on something deep within us all, without us knowing why. It makes us feel, somehow, something primitive.

Sensorial triggers may transport us, but here, they are facilitated by raw emotion – through the yearning expressly conjured by exquisite vocal melodies, and by the throbbing bass rumbling of geological discontent.

I stay in the space for two cycles of Obsidian’s 20-minute sound piece. The second time through, I lie down to feel the vibrations more intensely.

Looking up at the glowing light above me, I experience a shifting perspective, moving between looking into and out of the volcano’s interior. As the light extinguishes, I am brought to my body’s own interior, and an underlying, subtle feeling of familiarity.

During our interview, Jónsi commented on the similarities between Tasmania and Iceland: places where cities are surrounded by “intense, beautiful, and brutal nature”. Perhaps this plays a part in my sense of already-knowing. I recognise the relationship and have felt the same longing.

As a multi-sensory, immersive installation, Hrafntinna (Obsidian) is a transporting experience, but it is also a grounding one. In the dark, it shines a light on our inherent, embodied connection to place, and to the world.

Hrafntinna (Obsidian) is at MONA, Hobart, until April 1 2024.

Read more:
Living near the fire – 500 million people worldwide have active volcanoes as neighbors

Hannah Foley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. In the depths of Hobart’s MONA, a volcano is stirring – https://theconversation.com/in-the-depths-of-hobarts-mona-a-volcano-is-stirring-214550

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hugh Campbell, Professor of Sociology, Gender Studies and Criminology, University of Otago

Andrew Hoggard’s resignation in May as president of Federated Farmers, followed swiftly by his appearance high on the ACT Party’s candidate list, might have seemed seem like just another of the election’s minor subplots.

But this abrupt change of political hats represents the latest step in a 20-year journey that has seen one of the oldest and most powerful political alliances in New Zealand history begin to break.

For the first time in more than a century, farmers are not all in the same political paddock.

Farming has long defied gravity as an electoral force in New Zealand. Despite comprising less than 5% of the population, farmers have achieved an extraordinary level of political power.

This has had less to do with the kind of agrarian populism of the 19th and 20th centuries that has fascinated political scientists, than with careful alliance-building and a unity of purpose: “We are all in this together.”

But that can no longer be said of the farming sector, which is undergoing a transformation with significant implications for New Zealand’s broader political landscape.

The end of farmer power

For most of the 20th century, pastoral farming was the most important economic sector in New Zealand. Farmers solidified their influence by capturing both the formal mechanisms of government – through a close alliance with the National Party, and indirectly through important quasi-governmental organisations like the Wool Board.

Under the old “first past the post” voting system, rural electorates held significant power due to left-leaning votes being concentrated in urban electorates. This meant the farming vote in key marginal rural seats could swing elections in favour of the National Party.

This became a conduit to power. Farmers progressed through farming organisations and boards to become rural MPs, cabinet ministers and even prime ministers. Between the 1920s and 1960s, around half the ministers in various cabinets were farmers. Of the past seven prime ministers, four grew up on farms.

No other country has seen such access to power granted to farmers. Nor are there many countries where the political and economic interests of farming became so seamlessly aligned with the perceived interests of the whole nation.

Four things have progressively weakened this old alliance, moving farming from being powerfully situated in the political centre to becoming a fractured site of increasingly divisive rural populism:

• the economic blow of losing exclusive access to the British market for farm products in 1973

• the neoliberal reform of the economy in the 1980s, with the disestablishment of the producer boards that had given farmers so much indirect access to government

• the arrival of the mixed member proportional (MMP) voting system, which immediately erased the disproportionately powerful electoral voice of a small number of rural voters

• and the shifting environmental expectations of pastoral farming in New Zealand.

Read more:
After the election, Christopher Luxon’s real test could come from his right – not the left

The old alliance crumbles

The rising environmental challenge in farming has three times been met by classic old alliance strategies. In 2003, the alliance mounted the so-called “fart tax” protests to denounce investment in research identifying methane from livestock as a major greenhouse gas problem.

In 2009, the Land and Water Forum was formed to respond to growing criticism of dairy farming’s impact on freshwater systems. This time, the alliance had new elements – being required to sit alongside leading Māori land users who were emerging from the Treaty of Waitangi settlement process.

Finally, the Labour government in 2017 assembled He Waka Eke Noa, the “primary sector climate action partnership”, as a concerted attempt to negotiate greenhouse gas emissions in farming.

Read more:
A new farming proposal to reduce carbon emissions involves a lot of trust – and a lot of uncertainty

Both the Land and Water Forum, and He Waka Eke Noa, partially succeeded in their key mission, and made tentative progress on developing new governance frameworks for environmentally managing farming.

However, the farming leadership of both groups – Federated Farmers, export organisations and farmer politicians – began to sense any progress was also leading to a significant loss of support for those actions among their farming base.

Many other rural sectors like kiwifruit, wine and merino wool had already moved successfully into new styles of environmental management.

But many pastoral farmers, particularly older ones in the hill country or highly indebted dairy farmers, began to see new environmental measures as a threat, rather than as an opportunity for New Zealand to retool farming for the 21st century.

Groundswell and political realignment

The Groundswell movement emerged from provincial New Zealand in 2021 to challenge the consensus-based world of the old alliance. It was partly emboldened by the radical tactics farmers in the Netherlands were using against government and European Union measures to manage agricultural nitrates.

Those colourful and angry protests were shared online among farmers around the world, and Dutch farmers began to feature as heroes in culture wars against perceived government overreach.

For people focused specifically on the urgent need to develop new policy frameworks, Groundswell can seem confusing. That’s because its actual proposals to address greenhouse emissions are not dissimilar to those of Federated Farmers and many other farming participants in He Waka Eke Noa.

Read more:
The Groundswell protest claimed regulation and taxes are unfair to farmers – the economic numbers tell a different story

But the key difference is Groundswell’s style of political engagement. It wants to radically break with the old political and institutional relationships it believes have betrayed the interests of grassroots farmers.

That pressure saw Beef and Lamb NZ chair Andrew Morrison – an important player in the He Waka Eke Noa discussions – lose his position to a candidate backed by Groundswell and Southland Federated Farmers. Other key actors in He Waka Eke Noa began to withdraw, either under pressure from Groundswell or (like Andrew Hoggard) to pursue a more radical political path.

This battle within the farming sector has now spilled into realignments in wider electoral politics.

The National Party initially supported a bipartisan approach to mitigating agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. But under pressure from increasing support for ACT in rural New Zealand, it has backed away from collaborating.

The old rural alliance has lost its natural political home within the National Party. ACT is openly campaigning against current agricultural emissions pricing policies, claiming the government has tried to “sacrifice [farmers] to the climate gods”.

Read more:
11,000 litres of water to make one litre of milk? New questions about the freshwater impact of NZ dairy farming

Change and consequences

Given how MMP works, the fracturing of the old alliance may not alter the overall electoral map. But there are still important consequences of a more radical style of politics taking root among some farmers.

Any diminishing of those old alliance relationships will reduce the political reach of farmers. The alliance worked very well to amplify the political power of pastoral farming. Without that, it could become just another noisy lobby group.

Pragmatists within farming leadership and in export organisations understand the future of foreign markets. There may well be a reckoning if the actions of a radicalised and aggrieved group of pastoral farmers compromise the ability of agricultural export industries to meet new environmental demands.

Read more:
Farmers need certainty over emissions pricing – removing government from the equation might help

Ultimately, consumers will have their say. Supermarkets in the UK, Europe and elsewhere won’t be listening to protests about “government overreach” and “unworkable environmental regulations” when sourcing food products with a better carbon footprint. They’ll just buy from elsewhere.

The old farming alliance may have been less than transparent and viewed as conservative by many urban New Zealanders. But it was nonetheless a powerful mechanism for engaging with rural New Zealand. It was still the best mechanism for meaningful change in the sector.

He Waka Eke Noa collapsed because the farming and political leadership couldn’t carry enough of the pastoral farming world forward into the new environmental reality.

Those chafing at change might imagine they are trying to preserve an older world in which farmers were revered and privileged. Ironically, they may actually be undermining the alliance of relationships that underpinned that prior happy state.

Hugh Campbell has received funding from MBIE, MPI, the Marsden Fund, the Sustainable Land Management Fund, and Our Land and Water, to undertake research on the social dynamics of farming in New Zealand. He is a member of the Green Party and has contributed to its rural and agricultural policy development.

– ref. The battle for NZ’s farming heartland: Groundswell, ACT and the changing face of rural politics – https://theconversation.com/the-battle-for-nzs-farming-heartland-groundswell-act-and-the-changing-face-of-rural-politics-213979

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emily McColl-Gausden, Research fellow, The University of Melbourne

When the Black Summer bushfires swept across eastern Australia in 2019–20, thousands of animal species lived in the path of these megafires.

You’d be forgiven for thinking water-dwelling animals like platypuses were spared. Surely animals living in rivers and streams would be safe?

But our new research, published today in Biological Conservation, reveals platypuses are disappearing from waterways after fire.

We took water samples from streams and rivers across south-eastern Australia to test for platypus DNA. We found platypuses were less likely to be found in burnt catchment areas, six months after fire. But the species returned after 18 months. We hope our findings will support conservation actions in the event of future bushfires.

Read more:
A platypus can glow green and hunt prey with electricity – but it can’t climb dams to find a mate

An evolutionary masterpiece

Platypuses are much loved and unique to Australia. As monotremes, they lay eggs. They’re one of only five species of mammals that does – the other four are echidnas.

They have webbed feet for swimming. And they have electroreceptors in their bills to help them find food in rivers and streams.

But they can be hard to find. It’s difficult to determine whether there’s a platypus living in a particular waterway.

Monitoring allows us to detect changes in populations or communities. There may be gradual changes over time, or rapid responses to a big disturbance, such as a fire. Quick, efficient methods are vital for surveying species that occupy large areas.

DNA detective work

Platypuses are found in waterways throughout the east coast of Australia, from Cooktown in northern Queensland to Tasmania.

Little is known about how platypuses and other aquatic or semi-aquatic animals respond to fire. Ideally we would have good data on species before and after a fire, to draw comparisons. But that is rare.

Other research shows aquatic invertebrates (animals with no backbones) and fish can be harmed by bushfire, especially when rain follows fire.

Bushfires burn and kill the vegetation that stabilises the soil around rivers or streams. When rain follows fire, a lot of ash, soil and other debris can be washed into waterways. The water chemistry might change or there might be big increases in sediment, which makes the river or stream inhospitable for invertebrates and fish.

As platypuses feed on aquatic invertebrates such as yabbies, these flow on effects of fire could also impact them.

Just as people leave traces behind as they move through the environment (such as fingerprints, hair and skin cells), so do animals. These traces contain genetic material that can be analysed to identify the likely source.

We used this “environmental DNA” to detect where platypuses were present across the study area.

We sampled 118 rivers and creeks across Victoria, New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory a year before the Black Summer fires, for a project on platypus distribution. This was fortuitous, because it provided a baseline for us to determine the effects of the unprecedented fires.

We took more environmental DNA samples from the same 118 sites at six months after the megafires, and also 12–18 months post-fire, giving us three data points for the same rivers and creeks.

The sampling sites were spread across burnt and unburnt areas, giving us unaffected (control) sites to use as a comparison.

Read more:
Scientists at work: We use environmental DNA to monitor how human activities affect life in rivers and streams

What we found

Six months after the megafires, platypuses were less likely to be living at sites that experienced fire. But the difference between burnt and unburnt sites was negligible after 18 months.

The combination of severe fire and rainfall minimised the chance of finding platypuses living at a site.

Watersheds are areas of land that drain rainwater into local streams and creeks. We used the watershed of each site to calculate the area over which rain would drain to a site.

We also looked at what proportion of the watershed was burnt at high severity, as we thought this would increase the chance of destabilised soils and ash being washed into the waterways. We classified high severity fire as fire which removed all of the leaves from trees and burnt grasslands or pasture.

From our work, we predicted that sites where the watershed had at least 25% of its area burnt at high severity, and also experienced high rainfall, had a less than 10% chance of platypuses occupying those sites.

Understanding change

Climate change is predicted to lead to more frequent, severe and extensive bushfires in south-eastern Australia, as well as to more extreme rainfall events.

Our work adds to our understanding of how just one species could be harmed by the climate crisis.

We need these types of systematic surveys to provide baselines and monitor how populations and communities are changing. Monitoring will also help us respond more efficiently to major disturbances like the Black Summer bushfires, where, for many species, there wasn’t enough data to inform the initial emergency conservation response.

We would like to acknowledge Josh Griffiths, Reid Tingley and Luke Collins for their invaluable contribution to this work and Jaana Dielenberg for early discussions about this article.

Read more:
Worried about heat and fire this summer? Here’s how to prepare

Emily McColl-Gausden receives funding from San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance, The University of Melbourne and the Ecological Society of Australia.

Andrew Weeks is a Director at EnviroDNA, a company that offers eDNA based services to industry. He receives funding from San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance and the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Even platypuses aren’t safe from bushfires – a new DNA study tracks their disappearance – https://theconversation.com/even-platypuses-arent-safe-from-bushfires-a-new-dna-study-tracks-their-disappearance-212651

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Australia’s emissions need to decline “on a much steeper trajectory” if it is to meet its declared commitment of a 43% reduction by 2030 and net zero by 2050, the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development says.

In its report on Australia, released as part of its Going For Growth update on Tuesday, the OECD recommends Australia develop

a national, integrated long-term emissions reduction strategy with clear goals and corresponding policy settings to achieve climate targets.

The OECD also suggests broadening the scope of Australia’s so-called Safeguard Mechanism, which at present regulates the emissions of Australia’s 215 biggest polluting facilities.

It awards Australia a score on carbon pricing well below the OECD average and even further below that of the top OECD performers.

It says the share of renewables in Australia’s energy supply averaged only 7.7% between 2019 and 2021, compared to an average of 22.1% for OECD members, and 55.5% for the top performers.

The OECD is a forum of 38 mainly high-income countries, including Australia, that describe themselves as committed to democracy and market economies.

The report is critical of Australia’s performance on a number of other fronts, including income support for the unemployed, job market flexibility and the recognition of trade qualifications.

It says Australia’s JobSeeker unemployment benefit remains among the lowest in the OECD and below the relative poverty line when compared to the wages available from work.

The Albanese government has increased the rate of JobSeeker in the May budget. The report recommends the government consider “further increasing” it.

Declining productivity, declining competitiveness

The OECD finds signs of “reduced competitive intensity” in product markets, as well as falling labour mobility. “Productivity growth has also slowed down.” It says about one in five workers needs a licence to do their work, raising economic costs, and calls for automatic mutual recognition of licenses across states.

Access to fast broadband is low compared to other developed countries, and the take-up of digital technologies by businesses can be improved, the report says.

The OECD also draws attention the “large” gaps in economic and wellbeing measures between Indigenous and other Australians. It recommends the government “embed the Productivity Commission Indigenous Evaluation Strategy in the policy design and evaluation process of all Australian government agencies”.

Workforce transformation needed for 2050 target

Meanwhile, a report prepared by Jobs and Skills Australia entitled The Clean Energy Generation: workforce needs for a net zero economy says the government’s 2050 net-zero emissions target will require a transformation in the workforce that is “substantial but not unprecedented”.

“Like the post-war industrial transformation and the digital transformation of the late twentieth century, a new generation of workers will be required, both from existing energy sectors and through new pathways into clean energy. New jobs, skills, qualifications, training pathways, technologies and industries will emerge over the next 30 years,” the report says.

“Australia will need to consider the full range of levers across the education, training, migration, procurement, and workplace relations systems to ensure a sustainable and equitable path
towards net zero.”

Treasurer’s response to OECD

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the Albanese government was acting on the areas identified in the OECD report.

Its policies were “focused on maximising the opportunities of the energy transformation, embracing digitalisation and new technology and investing in our people and their skills so that we can build a more productive, prosperous and dynamic economy”.

“We’re securing faster progress towards decarbonisation through our safeguard mechanism, over $40 billion of investment in the energy transformation, our sustainable finance strategy, and establishing a new Net Zero authority to train workers and prepare communities for new opportunities here,” Chalmers said.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Australia’s emissions must decline more steeply to reach climate commitment: OECD – https://theconversation.com/australias-emissions-must-decline-more-steeply-to-reach-climate-commitment-oecd-214851