Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Lindsey, Malcolm Smith Professor of Asian Law and Director of the Centre for Indonesian Law, Islam and Society, The University of Melbourne

Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, whose final term in office ends on October 20, has presided over ten years of democratic regression in Indonesia.

This has been marked by attacks on – and direct interventions in – the Anti-corruption Commission and the Constitutional Court. Both were formerly key government watchdog institutions. It has also involved intimidating and weakening the civil society organisations that helped deliver democratisation to Indonesia after the fall of former dictator Soeharto in 1998.

Despite this, Jokowi’s popularity has remained at over 70%. In recent years, supporters have even proposed constitutional amendments to allow him to run for a third term. While these did not go anywhere, Jokowi remains determined to maintain power and influence after he leaves office.

This has led to the building of a new alliance with his former rival and the incoming president, Prabowo Subianto, and attempts to create a family political dynasty by helping his sons win office.

Jokowi’s son, the new vice president

These efforts started earlier this year in the lead-up to Indonesia’s presidential election.

Abandoning the party that had backed his rise to power, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), Jokowi threw his weight behind Prabowo by offering up his son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as Prabowo’s vice presidential candidate.

To achieve this, Jokowi had to rely on his brother-in-law, Anwar Usman, who was chief justice of the Constitutional Court. In a blatantly nepotistic decision, a majority of the court helped Gibran bypass the 40-year minimum age limit for vice presidential candidates.

Usman was removed as chief justice for unethical conduct, but the decision stood. Prabowo and Gibran won in a landslide.

Jokowi and Prabowo’s new alliance, the Advance Indonesia Coalition or KIM, soon became known as KIM-Plus as former political opponents quickly moved to secure a place in the new administration.

Jokowi also seems to have secured a new political base to replace PDI-P. In what some have likened to a “coup”, Airlangga Hartarto, leader of the second-biggest party, Golkar, was accused of corruption and resigned last week. He was swiftly replaced by a Jokowi loyalist, Bahlil Lahadalia.

Another son and ally running for governor

In recent weeks, Jokowi’s ambitions to maintain influence have focused on the regional elections on November 27 and the opportunity to install two KIM-Plus candidates in key gubernatorial positions.

The first is Jokowi ally Ridwan Kamil, former governor of West Java. Jokowi backed him to become Jakarta’s next governor, anticipating this would prevent the re-election of Anies Baswaden, one of Jokowi’s political enemies and critics.

The second is Jokowi’s youngest son, Kaesang Pangarep, who Jokowi was backing to be the next governor of Central Java.

Like his brother Gibran, however, the 29-year-old Kaesang faced an age-based roadblock. Kaeseng was barred from running due to an election law that requires gubernatorial candidates to be at least 30.

But once again, a favourable (but questionable) judicial decision – this time from the Supreme Court – seemed to clear the path for him.

The Supreme Court decided in May that candidates must be 30 at the time of inauguration. This enabled Kaesang to run, given that, if elected, his inauguration would occur after his 30th birthday.

The Constitutional Court weighs in

And then things suddenly came unstuck. The Constitutional Court, which many feel has become cowed and compliant under Jokowi’s rule, handed down two decisions on August 20 that blew up his plans.

In a unanimous decision, the court emphasised the minimum age for gubernatorial candidates applied at the time of nomination as candidate, not the time of inauguration. The court also suggested it might invalidate an election in which an underage candidate ran for office.

In another decision, the court drastically reduced the so-called nomination threshold parties require to put forward candidates for gubernatorial elections.

Under the current electoral law, a political party – whether itself or in coalition with other parties – needed to have either 20% of seats or 25% of total votes in a provincial parliament to field a candidate for governor.

The court reduced this threshold for parties to that of independent candidates. The result is that a party will only need 7.5% of the votes to nominate in Jakarta.

This change matters a lot. It will allow the PDI-P, headed by former President Megawati Soekarnoputri, to nominate a candidate for governor of Jakarta to run against Jokowi’s pick, Ridwan.

And she had been expected to back Jokowi’s rival, Anies.

A proposed law sparks street protests

These decisions led to a quick response. The national legislature (DPR), dominated by Jokowi’s coalition and led by a Jokowi loyalist, Deputy Speaker Sufmi Dasco Ahmad, defiantly announced last week it would immediately pass a new electoral law.

This would have reversed the effect of the Constitutional Court decisions in two ways:

• it would reset the nomination threshold to 20% (which would have blocked PDI-P from nominating a candidate against Ridwan)
• it would set a new age limit of 25 for gubernatorial candidates (which would have enabled Kaesang to run).

The legislature planned to do this, even though Constitutional Court decisions are, by law, “final and binding”.

This contemptuous treatment of the court and Jokowi’s blatant dynastic ambitions triggered a massive response from civil society, which, like the court, had seemed weakened in recent years.

Protesters in Jakarta besieged the DPR, eventually tearing off gates to the legislative complex. Demonstrators holding banners that read “Emergency Warning” and “Democratic Emergency” soon erupted in other cities.

There have certainly been bigger demonstrations in the past against the Jokowi administration’s policies, but, critically, these were enough to stop lawmakers from entering the DPR and forming a quorum.

Dasco eventually announced the new law would be abandoned (for now). Kaesang then announced he would not run for governor of Central Java.

As expected, it was soon reported the PDI-P would nominate a candidate for governor of Jakarta. It still unclear at the time of writing if Megawati will choose Anies or a member of her own party, but either way, Jokowi now can’t be sure his candidate, Ridwan, will win.

What happens next?

Jokowi has suffered a setback in his efforts to consolidate his power – and public humiliation, as well. But he remains a formidable political force and, when the time is right, he will want to respond to these challenges.

A likely target is the Constitutional Court itself. It acted with integrity and courage last week to defy the dominant political elite. But for years, it has been the target of an incremental campaign to undermine its independence through pressure on judges and legislative amendments.

The DPR now has before it a bill to amend the Constitutional Court law. It would not be surprising if this bill makes it easier for the government to remove judges, undermining its independence even further.

Moreover, while civil society groups rallied so effectively last week to stymie Jokowi’s dynastic ambitions, past experience suggests they are unlikely to maintain the momentum necessary to prevent the bill’s passage.

If that happens, last week’s dramatic decisions may well be the court’s last gasp.

Tim Lindsey receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Simon Butt receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Jokowi wants to build a political dynasty in Indonesia. A once-pliant court and angry public are standing in the way – https://theconversation.com/jokowi-wants-to-build-a-political-dynasty-in-indonesia-a-once-pliant-court-and-angry-public-are-standing-in-the-way-237555

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jadey O’Regan, Lecturer in Contemporary Music, Sydney Conservatorium of Music. Co-author of "Hooks in Popular Music" (2022), University of Sydney

The internet has been buzzing with rumours of a possible Oasis reunion, with the release of a cryptic post on the band’s X account that features only the date of of August 27 2024 at 8am, in the band’s iconic logo font.

It was announced today the band will be reuniting for performances throughout the United Kingdom and Ireland in 2025.

Oasis were one of the biggest English rock bands in the 1990s and into the 2000s, essential to the Britpop movement, alongside bands such as Blur, Pulp, Supergrass and Suede. England’s answer to the grunge scene coming out of America at the time, Britpop was a brighter take on the rock genre, with catchy tunes and lyrics that often critiqued British culture.

Oasis were known for hit singles, with 1995’s Wonderwall perhaps their most enduring. The band has sold more than 70 million records, had 22 top 10 hits in the United Kingdom, and were one of the only Britpop bands to crack the United States.

But alongside their music, they were just as well known for drama between the two brothers, lead singer Liam Gallagher and lead guitarist Noel Gallagher.

The band haven’t played together since 2009. Like many moments in the band’s history, their last performance – or lack of one – was particularly dramatic.

The band was scheduled to play at V Festival, in the English city of Chelmsford, which was cancelled due to Liam’s bout of laryngitis.

Later, Noel claimed Liam was actually just hungover, prompting a defamation lawsuit between the brothers that was eventually dropped.

Their final show was to be at the 2009 Rock en Seine festival in Paris. But before the band played, they cancelled the performance.

Noel then made the infamous post on the band’s website that confirmed the breakup of the group:

It’s with some sadness and great relief to tell you that I quit Oasis tonight. People will write and say what they like but I simply could not go on working with Liam a day longer.

The two brothers then pursued other projects – Liam’s band Beady Eye, and Noel’s High-Flying Birds – and there has been a long-running, very public animosity between the pair, who have repeatedly said the band was never getting back together.

But fans still held out hope the brothers would find a way to reconcile and reform Oasis. Now, 15 years after they broke up, fans will get the chance to see them perform together again.

If you’ve only heard Wonderwall and are curious what the fuss is all about, here are a few Oasis singles (and B-sides) from their discography that Definitely Maybe might make you a fan, in no particular order.

Supersonic

Supersonic, Oasis’ first single, peaked at 33 on the UK singles chart. Technically only supposed to be a demo and apparently written by Noel in around half an hour, Supersonic shows the band’s ability to rock from the first buzzy guitar slide.

Roll With It

Roll With It was an important song not just for the band, but for Britpop.

Blur and Oasis released singles on the same day in 1995. Dubbed “the battle of Britpop” by the press, Oasis lost the number-one spot to Blur’s Country House. But Roll With It is still a really catchy song that combines glam with the melodic and harmonic influence of the Beatles.

Don’t Look Back in Anger

A UK number-one single, Don’t Look Back in Anger is one of Oasis’ most beautiful songs. They wear their love of the Beatles on their sleeve here with the opening chords sounding like John Lennon’s Imagine and the video clip with their mop tops and coloured glasses.

It’s not just a pastiche. Oasis put their own spin on classic 1960s pop, with chiming guitars, a winding chord progression, a classic, melodic guitar solo, and some surprisingly charming lyrics.

Whatever

Whatever was a stopgap single to tide the band over between albums. It is an overlooked gem, and one of their very best Beatles-esque tunes, with a gorgeous string quartet and a lyric insisting we should all be free to be ourselves.

The Masterplan

A B-side to Wonderwall – a tough act to follow! – The Masterplan really showed what the band was capable of, both instrumentally and harmonically.

The use of dynamics works so well in this song. It starts out very small, and becomes a swell of textures with big horns, lush strings, keyboards, guitars and more.

Stop Crying Your Heart Out

Stop Crying your Heart Out is a surprisingly sweet ballad about resilience and hope for the future.

Oasis lyrics could be abstract, or at other times incredibly simple, succinct and clear. This is an example of the latter. The grain of Liam’s voice and the grandeur of the lush arrangement makes for a beautiful track.

Half the World Away

Half the World Away was a B-side to Whatever, and is in contrast with the lush arrangement of strings and keys on the A-side. Sung by Noel, the song is quiet, acoustic and surprisingly poignant.

Lyla

Lyla is a later-era single. It combines the pop catchiness of a love song with psychedelic touches that really work.

Perhaps the cleverest moment is the changing of time signature during the chorus – it might make it hard to dance in time, but it really works as a fun musical moment that doesn’t happen often in Oasis songs.

Who Feels Love

Who Feels Love is Oasis at their dreamy and psychedelic best – a groovy half-time beat, lots of backwards swirling guitars, and a drone that really makes you want to sway. A modern take on 1960s rock.

Live Forever

The early single Live Forever has become one of Oasis’ most iconic songs.

Written in contrast to the grunge and alternative movements in the US at the time, the song acknowledges the bad times (“Did you ever feel the pain, in the morning rain, as it soaks you to the bone?”), but also has a sense of hope: “We see things they’ll never see – you and I are gonna live forever”.

Jadey O’Regan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The band is getting back together: 10 Oasis songs you should know, beyond Wonderwall – https://theconversation.com/the-band-is-getting-back-together-10-oasis-songs-you-should-know-beyond-wonderwall-237557

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dee Ninis, Earthquake Scientist, Monash University

On Friday 23 August, a magnitude 4.8 earthquake near Muswellbrook, New South Wales, shook the state. The earthquake caused local damage and Geoscience Australia received more than 3,600 felt reports, including from Sydney and Canberra, up to 360 kilometres away.

Since then, there have been numerous aftershocks, including one of magnitude 4.6 at the weekend. The earthquake sequence is directly under the operational Mount Arthur coal mine, so at face value these earthquakes appear to be associated with local mining. But correlation does not imply causation. Let’s take a look at what we know.

What causes earthquakes?

Earthquakes typically happen when stress builds up in the planet’s crust as a result of tectonic forces. Once sufficient stress has built up, pre-existing weak zones or “faults” in the crust will slide – this is an earthquake. The stress is released as seismic energy waves.

Human activities that produce changes to the stress in Earth’s crust can also cause earthquakes. These are called “induced” earthquakes: without human activity, they wouldn’t have occurred.

“Triggered” earthquakes happen on existing fault structures, but have been brought forward in time by human activity: they would have happened anyway, but the introduced stress made them happen a little sooner.

Human activities that can produce induced and triggered earthquakes include fracking, wastewater injection, the filling of human-made reservoirs, and mining.

In open-cut coal mining, removing large volumes of rock from the surface may change the stresses locally and potentially result in earthquakes.

At the Mount Arthur Coal mine, earthquake monitoring has been ongoing since the 1990s. While a smaller mine was operational prior to that time, satellite images on Google Earth show a significant expansion – more than double the original mine size – began in 2002.

Seismic activity in the region increased from about 2014. This appears to indicate that the crust has been responding to stress changes due to mining at the site.

What has been happening recently at Muswellbrook?

Since Friday’s magnitude 4.8 earthquake, there have been a further 20 events larger than magnitude 2.5. All of these earthquakes have been within 5km of the surface. This is considered “shallow” and may indicate the quakes happened because the removal of coal at the surface changed the stress in the crust.

So, the shallow depth and the possible seismic activity increase since the mine was expanded may indicate these recent Muswellbrook earthquakes were mining-related. But there’s also evidence to suggest otherwise.

A recent study indicates that even large open pit mines do not appreciably change the stress along faults in the near-surface (within 5km depth) to trigger moderate-sized earthquakes. Calculations show faults would need to be already tectonically stressed almost to the point of failure for mining to affect the timing of earthquakes.

However, shallow induced earthquakes are possible. These generally are very small events – less than magnitude 2 – and most occur within a few hundred metres of the mining.

The region had earthquakes before mining

Some earthquakes in the Muswellbrook region may be occurring simply because of the local geology.

Muswellbrook is on the eastern margin of the Sydney Basin, which holds sediments from 200 million to 300 million years ago. These include the organic matter that turned into the coal now being mined. The eastern margin of this basin is the Hunter-Mooki Fault, a complex fault system that spans more than 400km.

North of Muswellbrook, a related fault appears to show evidence of earthquakes in the recent geological past, long before any mining in the area.

The southern extent of the Hunter-Mooki Fault is near Newcastle. Australia’s most damaging known earthquake happened here in 1989, claiming 13 lives. It had a magnitude of 5.4.

If some segments of this fault system have produced earthquakes previously, it’s feasible other faults along this boundary could produce earthquakes too, without any associated mining.

Earthquake clusters are not uncommon in Australia. Between 1886 and 1949, four moderate earthquakes between magnitude 5.3 and 5.6 happened at Dalton-Gunning, NSW, as part of a lengthy seismic sequence. The region still hosts earthquakes to this day. This and many other earthquake sequences are not near mining sites.

Overall, the available evidence for the recent earthquakes near Muswellbrook does not allow us to say unequivocally whether they are related to mining.

Earthquakes can and do happen anywhere in Australia. While mining can induce seismic activity locally, most of these earthquakes will be minor, and are rarely felt. Tectonic forces are still the main cause of moderate earthquakes in Australia.

Dee Ninis works at the Seismology Research Centre, is Vice President of the Australian Earthquake Engineering Society, and a Committee Member for the Geological Society of Australia – Victoria Division.

Dion Weatherley has previously received Australian Research Council (ARC) funding under the Discovery Projects scheme, as well as an ARC Linkage Project co-funded by the Queensland Government Department of Main Roads. Both were concluded at least ten years ago and relevant to this article. None of Dion’s current funding is relevant to seismology or the topic of this article.

– ref. Could the Muswellbrook earthquakes be caused by coal mining? Geoscientists explain – https://theconversation.com/could-the-muswellbrook-earthquakes-be-caused-by-coal-mining-geoscientists-explain-237481

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Is the Albanese government trying to cast Opposition Leader Peter Dutton as Australia’s Donald Trump? And if so, what’s the thinking and why is Treasurer Jim Chalmers in the vanguard of the charge?

Delivering the Curtin Oration this week, Chalmers said Dutton was “the most divisive leader of a major political party in Australia’s modern history – and not by accident, by choice”.

“He divides deliberately, almost pathologically. This is worse than disappointing, it is dangerous. His divisiveness should be disqualifying.”

On any reading, this is extreme language – especially coming from Chalmers. In question time, the treasurer doesn’t mind launching cutting barbs against opponents, but he usually refrains from going over the top.

As Chalmers’ attack appears to spray-paint Dutton with a coating of Trumpism, is this the politics of defence from a government feeling embattled, as much as it is the politics of offence?

In the past couple of parliamentary weeks, Dutton was criticised by some commentators for concentrating on the issue of visas for Gazans. Surely, the argument ran, he should have been talking about the cost of living, which is what most Australians primarily care about at the moment.

Chalmers said in his speech: “Every question in question time last week was about the Middle East, and not one about middle Australia”.

But if the Coalition had themed the cost of living in question time, it would actually have given the government more chance to talk about its tax cuts and other budget relief (which, incidentally, it is promoting shamelessly in government-authorised, taxpayer-funded TV advertisements – Labor in opposition once criticised that sort of spending).

An important clue to Dutton’s thinking came in Tuesday’s Essential poll, published in the Guardian. It showed that 44% agreed with the opposition leader’s call for a pause in the intake of Gazans. Just 30% opposed it and 26% were undecided. Whatever one might think of the Dutton stand – which lacked nuance and compassion – it clearly hit a political nerve.

On another front, Saturday’s sweeping Country Liberal Party victory in the Northern Territory election doesn’t have direct federal implications, but Dutton would take some heart from it in relation to his own strategy. The new NT government won on law and order, an issue that’s a first cousin to the national security and visa concerns Dutton is seeking to exploit.

In casting Dutton as apparently Trumpian, the government might also be noting the current mood change in United States politics.

Kamala Harris’ presidential candidacy has swung the emphasis on to unity, positivity and “joy”. It has not just left Trump floundering (at least for the moment), but re-emphasised his divisiveness and the potential risks he poses.

At present, two things are happening simultaneously between the government and opposition. There’s more deal-making on substantive policy (notably on the NDIS and aged care) than at any time since the election of the Albanese government. At the same time, the attacks on Dutton are intensifying.

Chalmers is working to clinch an agreement with shadow treasurer Angus Taylor on more reform of the Reserve Bank. Meanwhile he is amping up the assault on the opposition leader to number 11.

The positive side of Chalmers’s speech was overshadowed by the barrage against Dutton, yet Chalmers is at his best when he is constructive.

When he’s in full attack mode, he sounds more than a little like Paul Keating. (From a distance, he even looks like him.) Chalmers has studied, forensically, the man who was treasurer and then PM. His PhD thesis at the Australian National University was titled “Brawler Statesman: Paul Keating and Prime Ministerial Leadership in Australia”.

In it Chalmers wrote: “Keating employed numerous strategies in parliament. He sought to differentiate Labor from the Liberals and discredit the Opposition with slick put-downs and by listing the achievements of the Keating (and Hawke) Government. […] He sought to paint the Liberals and Nationals as out of touch and not up to the task, highlighted internal dissension in the Opposition and pointed out the limited capacity of senior shadow ministers.

“His tone varied from sarcasm to contempt to enthusiasm for new initiatives, but the intensity of the attacks and the disdain for what he saw as an Opposition incapable of leading the country was consistently evident throughout.”

It was a style Keating displayed both as treasurer and prime minister.

In an interview with The Australian’s Troy Bramston, published last weekend, Keating described how he saw himself: “In politics, I was in the blood and gore business, fundamentally. But with big ideas always running it.”

As Anthony Albanese loses the shine he had before and immediately after the 2022 election, and anyway lacks razor sharpness, Chalmers as attack dog may be useful for a government on the back foot. But if this becomes his longer-term image, how good that will be for the man aspiring to be prime minister might be questioned.

In government, attack dogs can be popular with the journalists, who love the sport. But often not so much with the public. In 1993 Keating won an unwinnable election as attack dog par excellence but by 1996 it was another story.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. View from The Hill: Jim Chalmers switches to attack dog but the style could bite him later – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-jim-chalmers-switches-to-attack-dog-but-the-style-could-bite-him-later-237559

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Greg Austin, Adjunct Professor, Australia-China Relations Institute, University of Technology Sydney

The selection of Abigail Bradshaw as the new head of Australia’s cyber spy agency, the Australian Signals Directorate (ASD), sends a strong message.

It confirms the government’s increasing intelligence focus on domestic cybersecurity, both to disrupt foreign influence operations and to promote better protection of our national cyber systems.

The ASD is so far succeeding in its monitoring of foreign influence operations, but struggling when it comes to domestic cybersecurity.

ASD’s evolving mission

The initial remit of the ASD’s predecessor agencies was to operate as an arm of the Department of Defence by collecting intelligence through the interception of international communications (or “signals” in traditional military parlance).

The aim was to collect information relevant to the national defence of Australia, its diplomacy and foreign military activities.

As early as 2010, however, the distinction between the agency’s foreign and domestic operations started to blur.

Today, foreign intelligence collection and support of the armed forces are only two of ASD’s five missions. Domestic cybersecurity is now a chief priority – and a starkly ambitious one at that. As the agency frames it in its strategic objectives:

Make Australia the safest place to connect to the online world. Foster national cybersecurity resilience.

This is a substantial mission for the ASD, and in large part justifies the massive new spending for the agency announced by the Coalition government in March 2022 under Project Redspice – an additional A$10 billion over ten years. The government described it as the biggest investment plan for the agency in its history.

The agency also has two other domestic missions oriented towards threats inside Australia – countering cyber-enabled crime (including terrorist use of the internet) and supporting law enforcement.

Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil made clear this new focus on domestic threats during a speech in parliament in June 2023:

About a year before our election, our national security agencies informed the Australian people that, for the first time, the biggest national security challenges that we face as a country are espionage and foreign interference.

It is largely for this reason that when Labor came into power in 2022, O’Neil, the new home affairs minister, was given a secondary role as a sworn minister for defence. This practice has continued with the ministerial reshuffle last month when Tony Burke was named the new minister for home affairs and cybersecurity – and sworn in as a minister for defence.

Bradshaw’s domestic security background

Like her predecessors, Rachel Noble and Mike Burgess, Bradshaw brings a more diverse range of domestic security experience outside the defence world than would have been the case for a leader of the ASD a decade or two ago.

She previously served as the deputy commander of the Maritime Border Command, deputy coordinator of the National Bushfire Recovery Agency, and head of the ASD’s domestically focused Australian Cyber Security Centre (ACSC). She held the role as deputy director of the ASD itself beginning in 2020.

Bradshaw’s fellow deputy director appointed to ASD at the time was the government’s former counter-terrorism coordinator, Linda Geddes. These two appointments confirmed the direction the agency was moving, with a very strong emphasis on domestic security.

Challenges ahead

Recent speeches by Burgess, now director-general of ASIO, confirm that both ASIO and ASD have
largely succeeded in their domestic and international monitoring of foreign influence operations in recent years.

However, improving our domestic cybersecurity presents a much bigger challenge.

Australia is arguably one of the ten safest countries when it comes to cybersecurity. And as a cyber power, the International Institute for Strategic Studies assessed that Australia sits in the same tier as the United Kingdom, France, Canada, Israel, China and Russia – behind the United States, and ahead of Japan and India.

On the other hand, there has been a string of sensational cyber breaches in the country since 2022 in which the personal details of millions of Australians have been revealed. This includes the attacks on Medibank Private, Optus and Latitude.

Australia is only gradually expanding its cybersecurity workforce and bringing private sector firms and even its own government departments into conformity with modest, mid-level indicators of security readiness. The new investments under Project Redspice will improve this.

But Bradshaw will have to be even more enterprising than her predecessors to bring Australia close to being the most cyber-secure country in the world – and the most resilient.

Greg Austin is a director of the non-profit Social Cyber Institute and a director of the Social Cyber Group, a business providing educational and advisory services in the field.

– ref. Australia’s new chief cyber spy inherits a massive $10 billion war chest – and an urgent mission – https://theconversation.com/australias-new-chief-cyber-spy-inherits-a-massive-10-billion-war-chest-and-an-urgent-mission-237551

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alannah McKay, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Sports Nutrition, Australian Catholic University

Iron deficiency is common and can be debilitating. It mainly affects women. One in three premenopausal women are low in iron compared to just 5% of Australian men. Iron deficiency particularly affects teenage girls, women who do a lot of exercise and those who are pregnant.

The body needs iron to make new red blood cells, and to support energy production, the immune system and cognitive function. If you’re low, you may experience a range of symptoms including fatigue, weakness, shortness of breath, headache, irregular heartbeat and reduced concentration.

If a blood test shows you’re iron deficient, your doctor may recommend you start taking an oral iron supplement. But should you take a tablet or a liquid? With food or not? And when is the best time of day?

Here are some tips to help you work out how, when and what iron supplement to take.

How do I pick the right iron supplement?

The iron in your body is called “elemental iron”. Choosing the right oral supplement and dose will depend on how much elemental iron it has – your doctor will advise exactly how much you need.

The sweet spot is between 60-120 mg of elemental iron. Any less and the supplement won’t be effective in topping up your iron levels. Any higher and you risk gastrointestinal symptoms such as diarrhoea, cramping and stomach pain.

In Australia, iron salts are the most common oral supplements because they are cheap, effective and come in different delivery methods (tablets, capsules, liquid formulas). The iron salts you are most likely to find in your local chemist are ferrous sulfate (~20% elemental iron), ferrous gluconate (~12%) and ferrous fumarate (~33%).

These formulations all work similarly, so your choice should come down to dose and cost.

Many multivitamins may look like an iron supplement, but it’s important to note they usually have too little iron – usually less than 20 mg – to correct an iron deficiency.

Should I take tablets or liquid formulas?

Iron contained within a tablet is just as well absorbed as iron found in a liquid supplement. Choosing the right one usually comes down to personal preference.

The main difference is that liquid formulas tend to contain less iron than tablets. That means you might need to take more of the product to get the right dose, so using a liquid supplement could work out to be more expensive in the long term.

What should I eat with my iron supplement?

Research has shown you will absorb more of the iron in your supplement if you take it on an empty stomach. But this can cause more gastrointestinal issues, so might not be practical for everyone.

If you do take your supplement with meals, it’s important to think about what types of food will boost – rather than limit – iron absorption. For example, taking the supplement alongside vitamin C improves your body’s ability to absorb it.

Some supplements already contain vitamin C. Otherwise you could take the supplement along with a glass of orange juice, or other vitamin C-rich foods.

On the other hand, tea, coffee and calcium all decrease the body’s ability to absorb iron. So you should try to limit these close to the time you take your supplement.

Should I take my supplement in the morning or evening?

The best time of day to take your supplement is in the morning. The body can absorb significantly more iron earlier in the day, when concentrations of hepcidin (the main hormone that regulates iron) are at their lowest.

Exercise also affects the hormone that regulates iron. That means taking your iron supplement after exercising can limit your ability to absorb it. Taking your supplement in the hours following exercise will mean significantly poorer absorption, especially if you take it between two and five hours after you stop.

Our research has shown if you exercise every day, the best time to take your supplement is in the morning before training, or immediately after (within 30 minutes).

My supplements are upsetting my stomach. What should I do?

If you experience gastrointestinal side effects such as diarrhoea or cramps when you take iron supplements, you may want to consider taking your supplement every second day, rather than daily.

Taking a supplement every day is still the fastest way to restore your iron levels. But a recent study has shown taking the same total dose can be just as effective when it’s taken on alternate days. For example, taking a supplement every day for three months works as well as every second day for six months. This results in fewer side effects.

Oral iron supplements can be a cheap and easy way to correct an iron deficiency. But ensuring you are taking the right product, under the right conditions, is crucial for their success.

It’s also important to check your iron levels prior to commencing iron supplementation and do so only under medical advice. In large amounts, iron can be toxic, so you don’t want to be consuming additional iron if your body doesn’t need it.

If you think you may be low on iron, talk to your GP to find out your best options.

Alannah McKay has recieved funding from the Wu Tsai Human Performance Alliance and Amazentis Life Sciences to undertake research into iron metabolism.

– ref. I’m iron deficient. Which supplements will work best for me and how should I take them? – https://theconversation.com/im-iron-deficient-which-supplements-will-work-best-for-me-and-how-should-i-take-them-235315

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Upama Aich, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in the School of Biological Sciences, Monash University

Antidepressants have helped millions of people worldwide since the 1950s. But have you ever wondered what happens to these drugs once they leave our bodies?

We wanted to study the effects of pharmaceutical pollution on freshwater fish.

Our new research shows even low levels of the antidepressant fluoxetine – sold under the brand name Prozac, among others – will harm male guppies over time. In laboratory experiments, males exposed to fluoxetine at levels they would likely encounter in the wild suffered wide-ranging consequences.

As our reliance on medication grows, so too does the burden we place on natural systems. If we fail to understand the effects of pollution on wildlife, we risk compromising the health of our ecosystems and the services they provide.

Drugs in our waterways

When we take our medicine, only some is absorbed by our bodies. Most passes through largely unchanged, in urine.

Wastewater treatment plants were not designed to remove these residues. So vast quantities of drugs are released into the environment, along with treated wastewater, worldwide.

This means organisms in waterways downstream from wastewater treatment plants are likely to be bathed in a cocktail of human medicines.

Over time, exposure to these contaminants can potentially disturb animal behaviour, physiology and reproduction. Of particular concern are drugs such as antidepressants, which have been specifically designed to alter brain chemistry in humans.

In recent decades, antidepressants such as Prozac (fluoxetine) have been detected in rivers, lakes and streams across the globe.

Fluoxetine has become one of the most common pharmaceuticals found in our waterways worldwide, including here in Australia.

Fish on chill pills

Despite the obvious differences between humans and fish, we share remarkable similarities.

Pharmaceuticals designed for humans can affect fish and other species because they target receptors we have in common.

Prozac and other brands of fluoxetine increases levels of serotonin in the brain, which increases feelings of wellbeing and happiness. In fish, serotonin is also involved in reproduction, food intake and growth, stress and multiple behaviours.

So it’s not surprising fluoxetine can affect fish. Evidence suggests the effects can be specific to the life stages or even the sex of the fish.

What is surprising is most studies focus on short-term exposure, even though drugs such as fluoxetine can be highly persistent in the environment and affect fish over long periods.

We collected 3,600 wild guppies (Poecilia reticulata) from Alligator Creek in North Queensland. Water samples from the fish collection site showed no contamination with fluoxetine.

Back at the lab, we exposed 15 successive generations of these fish to fluoxetine over five years.

Fish were randomly assigned to one of three levels of exposure, no fluoxetine (control), “low” or “high”. The “low” treatment level represents common surface water concentrations. “High” represents levels typically found in bodies of water heavily dominated by human effluent.

Sex in contaminated water

We found male guppies exposed to low fluoxetine levels were in poor condition, using a measurement similar to body mass index (BMI) in humans. The modified fin male guppies use to inseminate females (gonopodium) was also larger in these males.

Having longer gonopodia helps with mating. So exposure to fluoxetine seemed to trigger a trade-off between physical and reproductive health. When the maintenance of body condition became too costly, the fish put more energy into growing a larger gonopodium.

Low levels of fluoxetine also decreased sperm motility. This means the sperm of exposed males were poor swimmers compared to the sperm of unexposed males.

Female guppies are capable of mating with multiple males. So sperm from different males can compete within the female to fertilise the eggs. Lower sperm motility can therefore reduce the reproductive success of males exposed to fluoxetine.

Strangely, the low-fluoxetine treatment had stronger effects than the high-fluoxetine treatment. But this type of dose-dependent relationship is often found for such drugs and various mechanisms may be at play, such as desensitisation towards higher doses.

Under the influence

Aside from the effects on reproduction, we also studied how fluoxetine exposure affects the activity and hiding behaviour of guppies. Both behaviours are crucial to survival in the wild.

Male guppies exposed to fluoxetine became less capable of adjusting their behaviour in different contexts. They were repeatedly more consistent in their behaviour. In the wild, this can reduce an individual’s ability to respond to environmental changes. For example, consistent behaviour can make a fish an easy target for predators, while unpredictable behaviours can reduce their vulnerability.

Our findings add to a growing body of evidence showing similar behavioural disturbances in exposed wildlife. For example, other studies found antidepressants such as fluoxetine can make fish less active. This could disrupt their ability to compete for food and mates.

Why this matters

Antidepressants can be life-saving for people but pose problems when they find their way into the environment.

Our research has uncovered effects on fish that were largely underappreciated and overlooked, until now. The effects of prolonged exposure to such pollutants demands further investigation.

This will be crucial if we are to develop effective strategies for protecting and managing sensitive aquatic ecosystems, such as better wastewater treatment processes.

Upama Aich is employed under funding received by Bob Wong from the Australian Research Council.

Bob Wong receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Giovanni Polverino works for the University of Tuscia. He receives funding from The Italian Ministry of Education, Universities and Research. He is affiliated with Monash University.

– ref. Fish on Prozac: chemical residues in wastewater mess with bodies, behaviour and sperm – https://theconversation.com/fish-on-prozac-chemical-residues-in-wastewater-mess-with-bodies-behaviour-and-sperm-236234

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Douglas, Honorary Senior Lecturer, UNSW Aviation, UNSW Sydney

When it comes to consumer protections for airline passengers, Australia has long been dragging its feet.

The limited protections we do have rely heavily on the general Australian Consumer Law. The “consumer guarantees” provided in this law only require services to be delivered in the arguably vague framework of a “reasonable time”.

That might be okay if we’re just getting a sofa delivered from a furniture retailer. The cost of a late delivery is low.

But these guarantees were not tailored to the unique impacts delayed or cancelled flights can have on travellers. Australia’s lack of aviation-specific protections has long been a severe pain point for flyers, only heightened by pandemic disruption.

The government’s much-awaited Aviation White Paper, released in full on Monday, promised to address this issue. At the heart of the reforms, Australia will get a new aviation ombud scheme, and a new charter of customer rights for passengers.

The recognition that new protections are needed is a step in the right direction. But this once-in-a-generation white paper missed the chance to achieve far more, by moving Australia to the style of consumer protection that have now been offered for 20 years in Europe.

Why is air travel unique?

Airline customers have a reasonable expectation of arriving at their destination, at (or close to) the time published by the airline in its schedule at the time the reservation was paid and ticketed.

If this can’t be achieved, they should at least arrive at some amended time that was advised far enough in advance to allow related reservations and bookings to be adjusted.

Air travel has to be punctual because it doesn’t have any substitutes. On even a modest deadline, driving from Perth or even Sydney to Melbourne, for example, is not a comparable option.

And a passenger’s options to adapt their travel plans diminish as the departure date approaches. In the final days before travel, hotel cancellation deadlines pass and alternative connecting flight options sell out or spike in price.

In some cases, travelling to a specific event can become pointless for a passenger if a delay is lengthy enough.

Australia is playing catch-up

In contrast with Australia, aviation-specific protections have long existed in many other developed economies.

In the European Union (EU), for example, regulations make clear that airlines have specific obligations and responsibilities in the event of delays, cancellations and denied boardings. This includes the right to compensation of up to €600 (A$988).

These protections and the levels of compensation payable for failure to meet specified requirements for different kinds of flights are comprehensively legislated.

Canada has a slightly different approach – smaller regional carriers have different obligations to mainline operators. But as with the European regulation, it imposes an obligation to get the passenger to the ticketed destination, or to refund the ticket if the journey has become pointless.

The absence of such legislated protections in Australia means we typically have to rely on the goodwill of the airline when things go wrong.

Real action has been delayed

The centrepiece proposal of the white paper is to create a new ombud scheme with “the power to direct airlines and airports to provide remedies to consumers and investigate customer complaints about airlines’ and airports’ conduct”. This will replace the existing Airline Customer Advocate.

A new charter of customer rights, to be produced by the scheme, will aim to give flyers “greater certainty about what they can expect when flights are cancelled and delayed” and require airlines to be more transparent about their performance.

Read more:
Airline ‘customer rights charter’ to specify when cash refunds required

The white paper noted the poor on-time performance of Australian carriers. It also pointed out that the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission identified problems with consumer protections for air travel in Australia as far back as 2017. But its proposals offer no real quantifiable or enforceable improvements to consumer rights.

Despite the well-established models in comparable countries – many of which have followed the EU’s lead – Australians will need to wait for yet another discussion process to be complete before they see what protections may eventually be introduced.

The government’s white paper has largely just kicked the can down the road.

At a minimum, passengers on Australian carriers deserve the assurances given to those travelling in and from Europe: in the event of a cancellation or long delay, that they will be transported to their destination on an alternative flight as quickly as possible.

They should also be given appropriate meals and accommodation until they can make this onward journey, receive compensation for lengthy delays, and have the option to return home with a full refund if their travel has become pointless.

During and following my time as Chair of the International Air Services Commission I offered commentary on the Australian aviation market to the ACCC.

– ref. Even after the government’s crackdown, Australia will lag behind on flyers’ rights – https://theconversation.com/even-after-the-governments-crackdown-australia-will-lag-behind-on-flyers-rights-237469

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tony Wood, Program Director, Energy, Grattan Institute

This week, outgoing Senex Energy chief executive Ian Davies made headlines when he warned within a few short years, Australia won’t have enough gas to meet our demand, due largely to government inaction and intervention.

This is both true and not true. Australia-wide, there is no shortage of gas. We’re the world’s second largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), after all. Critics see the purported supply crisis as a move by the industry to open up new gas fields.

But in gas-dependent Victoria, the risk of shortages is very real. That’s because the state’s offshore gas wells are running out, and governments and industry haven’t acted to boost supplies until renewables can cover the gap.

Since 2010, production from offshore gas wells in Victoria has fallen by 70% and there’s not been enough new gas to replace it. The state government has banned fracking. And while New South Wales will soon have a gas import terminal (Australia’s first), Victoria knocked back a similar proposal on environmental grounds three years ago, and another, proposed for Geelong, is yet to secure environmental approval.

Victorian leaders will be relieved winter is ending and the gas heaters will be turned off. But the problem will not go away without concerted action.

What’s the shape of the problem?

Australia’s energy market operator has issued increasingly direct calls for more investment in Victoria’s straining gas system. Early this year, the operator warned:

Investment uncertainty in gas supply and infrastructure projects remains high, and many [potential projects] have not materially progressed.

Since the late 1960s, Victoria has relied on its wealth of offshore gas in Bass Strait, extracting enough for its own needs and exporting to South Australia and NSW. Its abundance and affordability led to more homes and small businesses taking up gas than in any other Australian jurisdiction. More than two million Victorian homes still use gas.

Change is coming slowly – last year, the state used about 177 petajoules of gas, the lowest demand this century. Annual output from Bass Strait’s gas fields is now around 300 petajoules and falling steadily. But this is an annual figure – it’s hard to ramp up production to meet sudden increases in demand.

The problem came to a head this cold, still winter. Wind and hydro power production fell. People fired up gas heaters, and gas power plants had to cover more electricity demand. Stored gas rapidly ran low.

At winter’s end, demand for gas falls off sharply. But this seasonal problem will soon become continuous as production keeps falling.

The state government is belatedly planning to phase out gas. These plans are welcome, but too late to solve the immediate problem. Getting Victoria off gas means 200 households have to quit gas every day for the next 20 years.

In 1998, an explosion at the Longford gas plant in Gippsland left households and businesses without gas for weeks. A gas shortage would be less immediate but still bring disruption and financial pain for businesses.

What should be done?

Australia has a lot of gas, but it is unevenly distributed.

Most large current or future gas fields are in Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory. To send it thousands of kilometres south would require major upgrades to existing pipelines or new, bigger pipelines. Investors have shown limited interest.

The NSW import terminal under construction at Port Kembla, near Wollongong, could deliver gas to Victoria via existing pipelines. But so far, energy retailers have not committed to use it, likely because potential seasonal shortfalls are not yet severe enough to cover the cost of its use.

That leaves shipping it directly to Victoria from overseas or from northern ports. It sounds odd for a major producer to import gas – but it could be the cheapest solution.

Our major gas buyers – Japan, Korea and China – have built large LNG import terminals, with giant tanks and lots of infrastructure. A Victorian import terminal would look very different, as it would be a temporary measure to ensure gas keeps flowing until demand ceases.

To do it, the terminal operator would build a wharf and lease a special type of ship – a floating storage and regasification unit, able to boil LNG back into gas and store it. While it would cost, say, A$100-200,000 a day to rent, that could still be cheaper than building new pipelines. When demand falls, the operator could stop leasing the ship.

Three years ago, AGL’s proposed import terminal in Westernport Bay was knocked back on environmental grounds.

Now there are plans for an import terminal in a less ecologically sensitive location in Geelong. Oil refinery owner Viva Energy wants to build a new wharf next to its existing one in Corio Bay, and then hire a regasification unit. Environmentalists have taken aim at this proposal too. If Viva is knocked back, it would leave Victoria dependent on the Port Kembla terminal.

Environmentalists do not like the idea of gas. They point out that burning methane is far from green. Environmentally minded voters are likely one reason why Victoria’s long serving Labor government has struggled to shore up gas supplies. In May, state energy minister Lily D’Ambrosio had to admit Victoria would need new gas supplies.

The harsh reality is we must get off gas – but we can’t erase Victoria’s long reliance overnight. Doing nothing means gas shortages will be inevitable, acting as an economic, social, and political disruption to tackling climate change.

Read more:
Cold snap, low on gas: the possible gas shortage in Victoria is a warning

Tony Wood may have financial interests in companies related to the topic of this article through his superannuation fund.

– ref. Does Australia face a gas shortage? No – just Victoria, where empty wells meet a lack of planning – https://theconversation.com/does-australia-face-a-gas-shortage-no-just-victoria-where-empty-wells-meet-a-lack-of-planning-237460

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sam Doecke, Research Fellow, Centre for Automotive Safety Research, University of Adelaide

The spotlight is back on speed limits, as the Western Australian government prepares to host a road safety summit in early September. Ahead of the meeting, at least one expert has called for the WA government to lower default speed limits on rural roads in WA to 100 kilometres per hour, down from 110 kilometres per hour.

While every other state and territory in Australia has a rural road default speed limit of 100 kilometres per hour, the default limit on rural WA and Northern Territory roads is 110 kilometres per hour.

So, would dropping the default limit by just ten kilometres on country roads in WA and NT make a difference? And how might it be enforced? Here’s what the evidence says.

Would it make a difference, and how do we know?

Theory tells us that the faster the speed at which a vehicle crashes, the more likely it will result in serious or fatal injuries. There is a limit to what the human body can withstand.

Now let’s look at what has been found in practice.

Research we conducted at the Centre for Automotive Safety Research showed the risk of serious and fatal injury in all impact types reduced from 4.6% at a travel speed of 110 kilometres per hour to 3.3% at 100 kilometres per hour. That’s a reduction of about 28%.

For head-on impacts, the risk of serious and fatal injury fell from 20.9% to 12.2% – a 41% reduction.

But will reducing speed limits actually reduce the speed at which people travel?

In 2019, a group of researchers reviewed studies that reported on 26 changes in average travel speeds due to changes in speed limits. This included results from three Australian studies.

The review found cutting the speed limit by ten kilometres per hour may be expected to reduce the average actual travel speed by three kilometres per hour.

In other words, even if people didn’t slow down a lot, they still slowed down a bit, which helps reduce risk.

And over time, as drivers get used to the new lower speed limit, they may slow down even more.

But do crashes actually go down?

Yes. Studies from around the world have shown that, generally, when speed limits go down, crashes go down. This is true for both injury crashes and fatal crashes.

The same pattern holds true in Australia, too.

Australian studies looking at the effect of reductions from 110 kilometres per hour to 100 kilometres per hour found injury crashes were reduced by:

• 19% in Victoria
• 27% in South Australia, and
• 27% in New South Wales.

Would a speed limit change really help, given how much rural roads vary in quality anyway?

The default rural speed limit applies to all roads outside of towns and cities (except where a different speed limit has been posted).

And remember: just because the default rural limit is lowered to 100 kilometres per hour, it doesn’t mean that will be the limit for all roads. Some roads may still have higher or lower speed limits.

A lower default speed limit on rural roads makes sense because it would make drivers safer on already poor quality rural roads.

Many rural roads are undivided, narrow, have no shoulder, or are unsealed. They may have hazards such as trees close to the edge of the road. Hazards such as livestock, wildlife, heavy vehicles, agricultural vehicles, or mining vehicles are common.

For these reasons, many rural roads are better suited to lower speed limits.

On the other hand, a high quality road – like a freeway or highway with divided traffic flows, sealed shoulders, dual lanes or passing lanes, few or no intersections, and roadside clear ways or barriers – may be better suited to a higher speed limit.

Could a lower default limit on rural roads even be enforced?

Setting safer speed limits is just one part of the picture.

While the majority of road users obey speed limits, enforcement is necessary. Police already enforce the current speed limits in rural areas, mostly by traffic patrols, and would continue to do so if they are reduced.

Technology can also play a part. Authorities often use safety cameras to monitor driver speed and other behaviours throughout Australia.

In particular, mobile point-to-point safety cameras (which can be moved to different locations to measure travel speed and enforce limits) are likely to enhance enforcement in rural areas and have been trialled in Western Australia.

Overall, the evidence is clear. Lowering the default rural road speed limit from 110 kilometres per hour to 100 kilometres per hour in WA and NT would be a positive for road safety.

It’s a change that could save lives.

Sam Doecke receives funding from the South Australian government. He is a member of the Australasian College of Road Safety.

The Centre for Automotive Safety Research receives funding from the government of South Australia.

– ref. Should WA and NT drop rural default speed limits to 100kph? Here’s what the evidence says – https://theconversation.com/should-wa-and-nt-drop-rural-default-speed-limits-to-100kph-heres-what-the-evidence-says-237479

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jennifer Jandt, Senior Lecturer in Ecology, University of Otago

What good are wasps? It’s a question we hear all the time. And, let’s face it, wasps are routinely demonised.

They interrupt picnics (they love beer and fruit as much as we do). Their sting can be painful or even cause an allergic reaction requiring medical treatment. And a swarm of them flying at you is genuinely terrifying.

The beech forests in the northern South Island of New Zealand are home to the world’s highest populations of ground-nesting Vespula wasps, also known as the German or common wasp. So it’s not surprising they get a lot of press, and hardly any of it is positive.

But this reputation is not entirely deserved. In fact, some types of wasp have been shown to be useful in crop pest control – something New Zealand’s horticultural industries may benefit from.

Wasps in New Zealand

Foreign wasps arrived in New Zealand around the middle of the 20th century, after queens stowed away in cargo ships from Europe. The new habitat suited their life cycle, and the wasps thrived.

Like honey bees and bumble bees, the two main “social wasp” groups – Polistes (paper wasps), and Vespula (ground-nesting wasps) – aren’t native. But unlike bees, they are active predators of other insects.

This means they compete for food with native birds and lizards, and can also affect the populations of some endemic insect populations (especially in beech forests). They may also periodically terrorise managed beehives. Consequently, there are nationwide efforts to eradicate social wasps in New Zealand.

But these wasps eat the insects that “bug” us too. Evidence has been mounting for more than 40 years that wasps – particularly Polistes, which are major predators of caterpillars – may be effective at controlling crop pests.

Beneficial predators

In our recent study in the Midwestern United States, we moved wasp colonies into a large, screened cage containing broccoli plants. We then added caterpillars and measured how the presence of wasps affected pest consumption of the plants.

The wasps ate all the caterpillars we set out within three hours. They were clever, too, eventually following us as we put the caterpillars on the crops. We also realised some wasps had worked out how to sneak onto our control plants (from which they were meant to be excluded).

We revised our controls and re-ran the study, this time using a different species of Polistes and a different crop, kale. By day six, all caterpillars from our plants were missing.

The results were clear. Not only can we move Polistes wasp colonies to a new location, but these paper wasps are active predators of crop pests. When wasps were excluded from the broccoli or kale that caterpillars had been added to, pest damage increased. When wasps were allowed to hunt, the crops prospered.

Like Vespula wasps, Polistes can sting if their nest is disturbed. But unlike Vespula, Polistes build small nests under the eaves of buildings. Their nests are relatively easy to remove and relocate to a better spot.

By relocating Polistes wasps into these boxes, we can move nests into small areas or distribute around a crop field. The boxes also act as a buffer to reduce the chances of disturbing the nest and being stung.

Pest control potential

If you watch wasps long enough, you can observe them carrying pests away from your home garden, local park or farm.

So, could Polistes be harnessed as a pest controller in New Zealand? Our research suggests they hold biocontrol potential for garden pests. But more research is needed to determine how effective that might be, and to ensure they are targeting pests and minimising their impact on native species.

Ours is also not the first study to highlight the benefits of social wasps. Beyond pest control, wasps are effective flower pollinators and help spread yeasts on grapes that improve wine quality. Wasp venoms are now being harnessed as medicines, including as a possible cancer treatment.

Overall, we argue wasps should not be uniformly demonised. They exhibit complex social behaviours to rival anything on Game of Thrones. And they were the original paper manufacturers, turning dry wood, cardboard or paper into pulp with their saliva to create the nest cells where their larvae will grow.

Perhaps one day we can harness them as biocontrol agents targeting crop pests, and reduce reliance on pesticides that can negatively affect beneficial insects such as bees. Like other wasp enthusiasts, we’d like to think their ability to help control pests on valuable crops might one day rehabilitate their reputation.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Wasps can be pests in NZ – but they have potential to be pest controllers too – https://theconversation.com/wasps-can-be-pests-in-nz-but-they-have-potential-to-be-pest-controllers-too-235877

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Parmeter, Research Scholar, Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, Australian National University

For weeks, Israel had been anticipating a major attack from Hezbollah in retaliation for its killing of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Lebanon at the end of July.

In the early hours of Sunday, that attack finally came – and Israel was apparently ready. The Israelis claim to have thwarted what could have been a large-scale Hezbollah assault. At the same time, Hezbollah also claimed success.

So, what can we make of the latest tit-for-tat between the two sides, and where does the region go from here?

How both sides are seeing things

Clearly, both Israel and Hezbollah have stepped back at this stage from any further action. Hezbollah has qualified this by saying this is only the first phase of its response to Shukr’s assassination, and that it reserves the right to strike further after evaluating the success of Sunday’s operation.

Israel claimed to have seen preparations for perhaps a thousand rockets to be launched across the border, and it preemptively sent around 100 aircraft into southern Lebanon and hit 270 targets, including rocket launchers. Hezbollah is believed to be capable of launching 3,000 missiles a day if a full-scale war were to break out.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed the operation as a success, but said it’s not the end of the story and Israel will strike further if need be.

Hezbollah denies Israel’s strikes did much damage, saying it merely fired into “empty valleys”.

At the same time, Hezbollah retaliated by sending a large number of Katyusha rockets into northern Israel. These are not the biggest rockets in its arsenal – they have a limited range of up to 40 kilometres – so they can only hit targets in northern Israel. Hezbollah said the rockets were meant to make way for a wave of drones to go into Israel. One Israeli Navy sailor was killed in the attack.

In his speech by video on Sunday, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, seemed to be apologising to the Lebanese people for putting them in this position. And that’s possibly not surprising, because Hezbollah is both a political and military actor, and it needs to make sure it continues to win votes in the Lebanese political system.

But Nasrallah said Hezbollah had achieved its objectives and the group was encouraging Lebanese who had moved away from the border to go back. However, that may be a bit premature, because it is still unclear how this will all play out.

What is Iran thinking?

Most analysts had been assuming there might be a coordinated revenge attack for both the killing of Shukr in Beirut and the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July. This may have included missiles and rockets from Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and possibly also the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Shi’a militant groups in Syria and Iraq.

But that didn’t happen. And that could mean a few things.

First, Iran at this stage is likely trying to work out the best way of responding to Haniyeh’s killing. In April, it sent over 300 missiles, drones and rockets into Israel in retaliation for the bombing of an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus in which several Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members were killed. But virtually all of them were shot down and there was no serious damage.

A repeat of that would indicate Iran really doesn’t have the capacity to take serious action against Israel.

At the same time, Iran would also not want to launch a bigger retaliatory strike because that could spark a wider war. And Tehran doesn’t want to give the Americans or Israelis an excuse to launch a concerted attack on its nuclear facilities.

So, Iran is likely trying to work out some mid-point between its April strike and a slightly stronger response. This is clearly taking time.

It may also indicate there’s a debate going inside Iran between those around the newly elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian, who is known to be something of a moderate (in Iranian terms ), and the IRGC, which has been threatening a very hard-line response to Israel for some time.

Iran may have simply decided it will only respond to Israel through its proxies – limited attacks by Hezbollah and the Houthis are all it is willing to do at this stage. But this doesn’t mean the danger is over because the scope for messages to be misunderstood between such hostile antagonists is always there.

Netanyahu under pressure

Netanyahu is also under continued pressure from the right wing of his cabinet, which has long advocated for taking out the Hezbollah threat on Israel’s northern border, even though this is a very difficult task. Israel tried it once before in 2006 and essentially failed.

In addition, about 60,000 Israelis have had to evacuate their homes in northern Israel and are living in temporary accommodation due to the Hezbollah threat. They want Netanyahu to make it safer for them to return.

Responding to military threats on two fronts is difficult for Israel to sustain. Israel’s military has now been been fighting Hamas in Gaza, and to some extent, protecting northern Israel from Hezbollah attacks for nearly 11 months.

The permanent Israeli army is also not that large. It only has about 169,000 regular troops, meaning it must rely on up to 300,000 reservists to meet its current needs.

And the problem with bringing reservists into service: this affects the economy because they leave their jobs. In just the last couple of weeks, the Fitch Ratings agency downgraded Israel’s rating from A to A minus, reflecting the fact the economy is not functioning as well as it should be, in addition to the heightened geopolitical risks. The country is on a perpetual war footing, and the military wants to have a break.

However, Netanyahu is wary of any sort of a pause in the fighting because that could upset his coalition and spark an election, which he would probably lose.

His entire strategy since the October 7 Hamas assault has been to reestablish his security credentials. He needs to be able to show he can counter any threat to Israel to restore the public’s faith in him. To do that, he must re-establish the confidence of those who live in northern Israel and stop the attacks from Hezbollah.

It seems this could go on for quite some time, but Hezbollah has also said it will halt its attacks if there’s a ceasefire in Gaza. So in that sense, we’re stuck in a loop that’s not going to stop until there’s a breakthrough in the ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas.

And given the obstacles that remain on both sides, it’s hard to see that happening any time soon.

Ian Parmeter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Israel and Hezbollah step back from war, but for how long? All eyes are now on Iran’s next move – https://theconversation.com/israel-and-hezbollah-step-back-from-war-but-for-how-long-all-eyes-are-now-on-irans-next-move-237463

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emily Burch, Accredited Practising Dietitian and Lecturer, Southern Cross University

While you’re likely familiar with type 1 and type 2 diabetes, you’ve probably heard less about type 1.5 diabetes.

Also known as latent autoimmune diabetes in adults (LADA), type 1.5 diabetes has features of both type 1 and type 2 diabetes.

More people became aware of this condition after Lance Bass, best known for his role in the iconic American pop band NSYNC, recently revealed he has it.

So, what is type 1.5 diabetes? And how is it diagnosed and treated?

There are several types of diabetes

Diabetes mellitus is a group of conditions that arise when the levels of glucose (sugar) in our blood are higher than normal. There are actually more than ten types of diabetes, but the most common are type 1 and type 2.

Type 1 diabetes is an autoimmune condition where the body’s immune system attacks and destroys the cells in the pancreas that make the hormone insulin. This leads to very little or no insulin production.

Insulin is important for moving glucose from the blood into our cells to be used for energy, which is why people with type 1 diabetes need insulin medication daily. Type 1 diabetes usually appears in children or young adults.

Type 2 diabetes is not an autoimmune condition. Rather, it happens when the body’s cells become resistant to insulin over time, and the pancreas is no longer able to make enough insulin to overcome this resistance. Unlike type 1 diabetes, people with type 2 diabetes still produce some insulin.

Type 2 is more common in adults but is increasingly seen in children and young people. Management can include behavioural changes such as nutrition and physical activity, as well as oral medications and insulin therapy.

How does type 1.5 diabetes differ from types 1 and 2?

Like type 1 diabetes, type 1.5 occurs when the immune system attacks the pancreas cells that make insulin. But people with type 1.5 often don’t need insulin immediately because their condition develops more slowly. Most people with type 1.5 diabetes will need to use insulin within five years of diagnosis, while those with type 1 typically require it from diagnosis.

Type 1.5 diabetes is usually diagnosed in people over 30, likely due to the slow progressing nature of the condition. This is older than the typical age for type 1 diabetes but younger than the usual diagnosis age for type 2.

Type 1.5 diabetes shares genetic and autoimmune risk factors with type 1 diabetes such as specific gene variants. However, evidence has also shown it may be influenced by lifestyle factors such as obesity and physical inactivity which are more commonly associated with type 2 diabetes.

What are the symptoms, and how is it treated?

The symptoms of type 1.5 diabetes are highly variable between people. Some have no symptoms at all. But generally, people may experience the following symptoms:

• increased thirst
• frequent urination
• fatigue
• blurred vision
• unintentional weight loss.

Typically, type 1.5 diabetes is initially treated with oral medications to keep blood glucose levels in normal range. Depending on their glucose control and the medication they are using, people with type 1.5 diabetes may need to monitor their blood glucose levels regularly throughout the day.

When average blood glucose levels increase beyond normal range even with oral medications, treatment may progress to insulin. However, there are no universally accepted management or treatment strategies for type 1.5 diabetes.

Type 1.5 diabetes is often misdiagnosed

Lance Bass said he was initially diagnosed with type 2 diabetes, but later learned he actually has type 1.5 diabetes. This is not entirely uncommon. Estimates suggest type 1.5 diabetes is misdiagnosed as type 2 diabetes 5–10% of the time.

There are a few possible reasons for this.

First, accurately diagnosing type 1.5 diabetes, and distinguishing it from other types of diabetes, requires special antibody tests (a type of blood test) to detect autoimmune markers. Not all health-care professionals necessarily order these tests routinely, either due to cost concerns or because they may not consider them.

Second, type 1.5 diabetes is commonly found in adults, so doctors might wrongly assume a person has developed type 2 diabetes, which is more common in this age group (whereas type 1 diabetes usually affects children and young adults).

Third, people with type 1.5 diabetes often initially make enough insulin in the body to manage their blood glucose levels without needing to start insulin medication. This can make their condition appear like type 2 diabetes, where people also produce some insulin.

Finally, because type 1.5 diabetes has symptoms that are similar to type 2 diabetes, it may initially be treated as type 2.

We’re still learning about type 1.5

Compared with type 1 and type 2 diabetes, there has been much less research on how common type 1.5 diabetes is, especially in non-European populations. In 2023, it was estimated type 1.5 diabetes represented 8.9% of all diabetes cases, which is similar to type 1. However, we need more research to get accurate numbers.

Overall, there has been a limited awareness of type 1.5 diabetes and unclear diagnostic criteria which have slowed down our understanding of this condition.

A misdiagnosis can be stressful and confusing. For people with type 1.5 diabetes, being misdiagnosed with type 2 diabetes might mean they don’t get the insulin they need in a timely manner. This can lead to worsening health and a greater likelihood of complications down the road.

Getting the right diagnosis helps people receive the most appropriate treatment, save money, and reduce diabetes distress. If you’re experiencing symptoms you think may indicate diabetes, or feel unsure about a diagnosis you’ve already received, monitor your symptoms and chat with your doctor.

Emily Burch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Lauren Ball works for The University of Queensland and receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Queensland Health and Mater Misericordia. She is a Director of Dietitians Australia, a Director of the Darling Downs and West Moreton Primary Health Network and an Associate Member of the Australian Academy of Health and Medical Sciences.

– ref. What is type 1.5 diabetes? It’s a bit like type 1 and a bit like type 2 – but it’s often misdiagnosed – https://theconversation.com/what-is-type-1-5-diabetes-its-a-bit-like-type-1-and-a-bit-like-type-2-but-its-often-misdiagnosed-237041

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Janice Lord, Associate Professor in Botany, University of Otago

Mistletoes are the stuff of myth and legend, vilified for providing the arrow that shot Norse god Balder, but venerated in Celtic and Roman mythology as protection against dark forces.

It is no wonder – mistletoes are unlike any other plant. All species in the mistletoe family, Loranthaceae, are parasites.

The bird-dispersed seeds stick to branches with a special glue and tap into the host tree’s water-conducting vessels (xylem) to access nutrients from the sap.

Mistletoes are called hemi-parasites because they still photosynthesise to produce their own carbohydrates. Most are evergreen, remaining leafy in winter even when their deciduous host trees lose their leaves. This feat is possible because they can continue to draw sap by capillary action, even when the host tree is dormant.

Mistletoes are keystone species

This ability to remain leafy year round is one reason mistletoes are increasingly called keystone species – they play a key role in maintaining ecosystem function, just as a keystone at the top of a masonry arch holds the whole structure in place.

Mistletoe fruits, as well as the flowers of many species, feed birds. The shelter they provide could moderate the impacts of climate change on bird populations.

Our new study shows mistletoes also provide a critically important winter refuge for foliage-dwelling arthropods, especially when they grow in non-native deciduous trees which now dominate many landscapes in New Zealand.

Arthropods – which include insects, arachnids, crustaceans and myriapods – account for most species on the planet. They are not only an important food source for other animals but are crucial to maintaining ecosystems globally, with ecological contributions from pollination to the breakdown of organic matter.

Winter refuge

All of New Zealand’s six species of leafy mistletoes are native. In te reo Māori, they are known as pirita, pikirangi or roeroe. One is extinct and four are considered at risk, mainly due to habitat loss and damage from possums.

All New Zealand mistletoes are evergreen, as are almost all native trees. But deforestation and the widespread planting of non-native deciduous trees in urban and agricultural areas has drastically altered the types of host trees available for native mistletoes and native arthropods.

The green mistletoe Ileostylus micranthus is the most common throughout New Zealand because it is able to parasitise a wide range of hosts, including non-native deciduous trees.

Our study examined the arthropod communities on green mistletoes parasitising evergreen and deciduous host trees. The idea was specifically to see whether the host type (evergreen vs deciduous) and season (summer vs winter) affect the proportion of arthropods found on mistletoes themselves, compared with their host trees.

We found mistletoes harbour significantly more native arthropods overall than the host trees they parasitise. But most importantly, they shelter significantly more arthropods in winter when growing on deciduous hosts, suggesting they are acting as habitat refuges during the colder months.

The benefits of leafy mistletoes in winter may be that they shelter arthropods from weather extremes and hungry birds. They may also provide a more humid microclimate due to the “wasteful” water usage mistletoes engage in to draw sap from the host.

Humidity is important to small arthropods. They are vulnerable to desiccation as they have a much higher surface-to-volume ratio than vertebrates and many have external respiratory systems. Relocating to a humid refuge is a common way for arthropods to avoid desiccation.

Cherish, don’t chop!

One of the issues we faced was that several mistletoes we sampled in summer were deliberately cut off between seasons and could not be resampled in winter. Even mistletoes on native trees were removed from council-managed areas during our research despite our permission to study them.

Other research on the endangered white mistletoe, Tupeia antarctica, was also disrupted. A tree branch that had been banded, with council permission, to stop possums destroying one of the rare mistletoes, was completely removed by council contractors. This was all the more distressing as the at-risk endemic moth Zelleria sphenota was plentiful on that particular mistletoe.

It’s a myth that mistletoes kill trees. The effect on a healthy tree in a healthy forest ecosystem is negligible (although they can have an impact if the tree is isolated or stressed). Isolated trees can become burdened with a large number of mistletoes because there are few other trees around for birds to perch on.

But the removal of mistletoes can reduce bird species richness by more than 30%. Instead of blaming and removing the mistletoe we could do better by planting more trees.

Perhaps it is also time we moved away from a gardening attitude of absolute control when it comes to mistletoes. We could look to the example of Tāne Mahuta, Māori atua of the forests. When Tāne made the forests he made the mistletoe last. He saw his youngest child was small and weak, so he lifted the mistletoe from the forest floor and placed it in the arms of its larger siblings.

Janice Lord receives funding from the Department of Conservation and Ministry for Primary Industries. She is affiliated with the New Zealand Plant Conservation Network and the New Zealand Entomological Society.

James Crofts-Bennett is a member of the Kāti Māmoe and wider Kāi Tahu iwi. He is associated with the New Zealand Entomological Society.

– ref. NZ mistletoes are parasites but not villains – they’re vital for birds and insects during winter – https://theconversation.com/nz-mistletoes-are-parasites-but-not-villains-theyre-vital-for-birds-and-insects-during-winter-236846

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Taylor, Associate Professor in Demography, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University

Right now, human population growth is doing something long thought impossible – it’s wavering. It’s now possible global population could peak much earlier than expected, topping 10 billion in the 2060s. Then, it would begin to fall.

In wealthier countries, it’s already happening. Japan’s population is falling sharply, with a net loss of 100 people every hour. In Europe, America and East Asia, fertility rates have fallen sharply. Many middle or lower income countries are about to drop too.

This is an extraordinary change. It was only ten years ago demographers were forecasting our numbers could reach as high as 12.3 billion, up from around 8 billion today.

For 50 years, some environmentalists have tried to save the environment by cutting global population growth. In 1968, The Population Bomb forecast massive famines and called for large-scale birth control.

Now we face a very different reality – population growth is slowing without population control, and wealthy country populations are falling, triggering frantic but largely ineffective efforts to encourage more children. What might a falling global population mean for the environment?

Depopulation is already happening

For much of Europe, North America, and some of Northern Asia, depopulation has been underway for decades. Fertility rates have fallen steadily over the past 70 years
and have stayed low, while longer life expectancies mean numbers of very old people (over 80) will double in these regions within 25 years.

China was until recently the world’s most populous nation, accounting for a sixth of the global population. But China, too, is now declining, with the fall expected to rapidly accelerate.

By the end of the century, China is projected to have two-thirds fewer people than today’s 1.4 billion. The sudden drop is due to the long tail of the One Child Policy, which ended in 2016, too late to avert the fall. Japan was once the world’s 11th most populated country, but is expected to halve before the end of the century.

What’s going on is known as demographic transition. As countries move from being largely rural and agrarian to industrial and service-based economies, fertility drops sharply. When low birth rates and low death rates combine, populations begin to fall.

Why? A major factor is choice for women. Women are increasingly having children later in life and having fewer children on average, due to improved choices and freedoms in relation to education and careers.

Why are we suddenly focused on depopulation, given birth rates in rich countries have been falling for decades? When the COVID pandemic hit in 2020, birth rates went into free fall for most countries before recovering a little, while death rates increased. That combination bought forward the onset of population decline more broadly.

A falling population poses real challenges economically. There are fewer workers available and more very old people needing support.

Countries in rapid decline may start to limit emigration to make sure they keep scarce workers at home and prevent further ageing and decline. The competition for skilled workers will intensify globally. Of course, migration doesn’t change how many people there are – just where they are located.

Are these just rich country problems? No. Population growth in Brazil, a large middle-income country, is now the slowest on record.

By 2100, the world is expected to have just six countries where births outweigh deaths – Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad, and Tajikistan. The other 97% of nations are projected to have fertility rates below replacement levels (2.1 children per woman).

Bad for the economy – good for the environment?

Fewer of us means a reprieve for nature – right? No. It’s not that simple.

For instance, the per capita amount of energy we use peaks between ages 35 and 55, falls, and then rises again from age 70 onwards, as older people are more likely to stay indoors longer and live alone in larger homes. This century’s extraordinary growth in older populations could offset declines from falling populations.

Then there’s the huge disparity in resource use. If you live in the United States or Australia, your carbon footprint is nearly double that of a counterpart in China, the largest overall emitter.

Richer countries consume more. So as more countries get wealthier and healthier but with fewer children, it’s likely more of the global population will become higher emitters. Unless, of course, we decouple economic growth from more emissions and other environmental costs, as many countries are attempting – but very slowly.

Expect to see more liberal migration policies to boost the numbers of working-aged people. We’re already seeing this – migration has now passed projections for 2050.

When people migrate to a developed country, it can be economically advantageous to them and the adopted country. Environmentally, it can increase per capita emissions and environmental impact, given the link between income and emissions is very clear.

Then there’s the looming upheaval of climate change. As the world heats up, forced migration – where people have to leave home to escape drought, war or other climate-influenced disaster – is projected to soar to 216 million people within a quarter century. Forced migration may change emissions patterns, depending on where people find sanctuary.

These factors aside, it’s possible a falling global population could cut overall consumption and reduce pressure on the natural environment.

Environmentalists worried about overpopulation have long hoped for global population to fall. They may soon get their wish. Not through enforced birth control policies but largely through the choices of educated, wealthier women opting for smaller families.

It’s very much an open question whether falling populations will reduce pressure on the natural world. Unless we also cut emissions and change consumption patterns in developed countries, this is by no means guaranteed.

Andrew Taylor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Supriya Mathew does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Global population growth is now slowing rapidly. Will a falling population be better for the environment? – https://theconversation.com/global-population-growth-is-now-slowing-rapidly-will-a-falling-population-be-better-for-the-environment-235781

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lucie Newsome, Lecturer, Business School, University of New England

When we think of a farmer, we still often imagine a man. But in reality, women contribute 49% to real farm income.

This isn’t just by increasingly working as farmers themselves. Keeping a farm business going usually relies on women’s off-farm work as well, particularly in times of drought.

Despite this, women often do not have ownership of farmland. And when it comes to who gets the family farm in succession planning, daughters, mothers and daughters-in-law are all likely to miss out.

There are established legal protections that women can draw on to challenge this. But our recent research finds these are often seen as a threat to the continuity of the family farm, and attempts are made to deliberately lock women out.

Australian agriculture only suffers as a result. To fix the problem, some stubborn attitudes will need to change.

Passing down the family farm through the generations

The process of deciding who will take over the family farm is known as farm transition and succession. Passing down land through the generations is of upmost importance for farming families.

Farmers see themselves as custodians of land, building on the work of previous generations for the benefit of their descendants. Farm land ownership is tied to identity, social standing, culture and community.

Passing on a viable farm business often relies on keeping it intact, rather than dividing it among siblings. But agricultural land prices have skyrocketed, meaning that for many families, succession planning can be a multimillion-dollar issue.

Beyond the obvious emotional charge, this also makes it extremely difficult for a sibling who wants to take over the farm to buy out the others. It also can mean siblings who do not take over the farm are giving up more and more money.

As you’d expect, this has made farm succession planning big business. Lawyers, accountants and business advisors are all used to help farming families negotiate a way forward.

So, who gets the farm?

Sons, mostly. The most recent data suggests that daughters only take over the family farm in 10% of cases. But as this data is now quite old, a large upcoming survey will assess whether this remains the case.

The default position for most Australian farming families is that a farmer equals a man – their sons are seen as best placed to take over the farm. They are often socialised into this role from birth.

But this view is severely outdated. As farming becomes more professionalised, entrepreneurial and technology-driven, the myth that it requires brute physical male strength is losing power.

Fortunately, gender norms in agriculture are slowly shifting. While there is still a long way to go, daughters are increasingly considered as farmers and are less likely to be overlooked in the distribution of family assets.

The ‘dreaded’ farm daughter-in-law

Few are so mistrusted in the politics of farm succession as the daughter-in-law. Despite this, their on- and off-farm work and their roles as caregivers and community members are crucial to the reproduction of farming families, the family farm and rural communities.

Women have become less accepting of being locked out of land ownership as education levels, family law and gender norms have changed.

But for the landholding generation, they are still often seen as a threat to the continuity of the family farm.

A daughter-in-law’s attempts to start succession planning processes, to raise questions about the underpayment of her partner or herself, or attempts to seek a career outside of rural areas can all also be seen as challenges to the traditional farm family.

This is despite the fact she is often just attempting to secure a degree of certainty for her immediate family.

Deliberately locked out

For some time, Australian family law has extended to de facto partners as well as married partners.

In the case of a divorce or intimate partnership breakdown, the court has the power to decide on how property assets – such as farms – will be distributed between the partners.

In doing so, it aims to achieve an equitable distribution, rather than seeing assets as owned in a 50/50 split. It may take into account the needs of each partner and their financial and non-financial contributions, such as child care.

Despite this, our research found the landholding generation are using the farm succession processes to protect the continuity of the farm from a claim by the daughter-in-law.

This includes delaying transfer of the farm to their adult children, so that the daughter-in-law cannot make a claim on it in the case of divorce. Family business structures that quarantine the farm asset, such as binding financial agreements, are also being used.

But collectively marginalising the farm daughter-in-law and excluding daughters from succession is only hurting the industry. In their attempts to preserve the status quo of gender relations, many family farms are failing to prepare for a changing business and social environment.

Women have been graduating from agricultural degrees in equal numbers as men for more than two decades. Females farmers have been found to have high levels of entrepreneurship, innovation and strong sustainability values.

How can farming families do better succession planning?

Australia’s food security and agricultural industry depend on succession being done well. It needs to be a continuous conversation with the whole family, aided by professionals with a range of skills.

That means women can no longer be deliberately excluded. As one professional in our study commented:

A lot of these girls have sacrificed a lot and … [they] are whip-smart and actually could contribute enormously to these businesses being more successful if [the older generation would] just put fear aside, be clear about what they’re frightened of, deal with it, and move on.

If the industry wants to thrive in the 21st century, attitudes will have to change.

Lucie Newsome receives funding from the UNE Foundation to support this research.

Andrew Lawson receives funding from the UNE Foundation to support this research

Alison Sheridan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Women play a crucial role in agriculture – so why are they often locked out of owning land? – https://theconversation.com/women-play-a-crucial-role-in-agriculture-so-why-are-they-often-locked-out-of-owning-land-236311

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Theresa Fruth, Lecturer in Physics, University of Sydney

Most of the matter in the universe is missing. Scientists believe around 85% of the matter in the cosmos is made of invisible dark matter, which has only been detected indirectly by its gravitational effects on its surroundings.

My colleagues and I – a team of some 250 scientists from around the world working on a dark matter experiment called LUX-ZEPLIN (or LZ) – today report our latest findings from the long quest to discover exactly what this dark matter is made of.

We have not yet found the elusive particles we believe dark matter consists of, but we have set the tightest limits yet on their properties. We have also shown our detector is working as expected – and should produce even better results in the future.

Our results are reported today at the TeV Particle Astrophysics 2024 conference in Chicago and the LIDINE 2024 conference in São Paulo, Brazil. A journal paper will be submitted for peer review in the coming weeks.

What is dark matter?

When astronomers look at the universe, they see evidence that the visible matter of stars, gas and galaxies is not all there is. Many phenomena, such as how fast galaxies spin and the pattern of the residual glow of the Big Bang, can only be explained by the presence of large amounts of some invisible substance – dark matter.

So what is this dark matter made of? We currently don’t know of any kind of particle that could explain these astronomical observations.

There are dozens of theories that aim to explain dark matter observations, ranging from exotic unknown particles to tiny black holes or fundamental changes to our theory of gravity. However, none of them has yet been proven correct.

One of the most popular theories suggests dark matter is made up of so-called “weakly interacting massive particles” (or WIMPs). These relatively heavy particles could cause the observed gravitational effects and also – very rarely – interact with ordinary matter.

How would we know if this theory is correct? Well, we think these particles must be streaming through Earth all the time. For the most part, they will pass through without interacting with anything, but every so often a WIMP might crash directly into the nucleus of an atom – and these collisions are what we are trying to spot.

A big cold tank of liquid xenon

The LZ experiment is located in an old goldmine about 1,500 metres below ground in South Dakota in the US. Placing the experiment deep underground helps to cut out as much background radiation as possible.

The experiment consists of a large double-walled tank filled with seven tonnes of liquid xenon, a noble gas chilled down to a temperature of 175 kelvin (–98°C).

If a dark matter particle smacks into a xenon nucleus, it should give off a tiny flash of light. Our detector has 494 light sensors to detect these flashes.

Of course, dark matter particles aren’t the only things that can create these flashes. There is still some background radiation from the surroundings and even the materials of the tank and detectors themselves.

A big part of figuring out whether we are seeing signs of dark matter is disentangling this background radiation from anything more exotic. To do this, we make detailed simulations of the results we would expect to see with and without dark matter.

These simulations have been the focus of much of my part in the experiment, which began when I started my PhD in 2015. I also developed detector monitoring sensors and was responsible for the integration and commissioning of the central detector underground, which began collecting data in 2021.

Drawing the net tighter

Our latest results show no signs of dark matter. However, they let us rule out a lot of possibilities.

We found no traces of particles with masses above 1.6 × 10^–26 kilograms, which is about ten times as heavy as a proton.

These results are based on 280 days’ worth of observations from the detector. Eventually, we aim to collect 1,000 days’ worth – which will let us search for even more elusive potential dark matter particles.

If we’re lucky, we might find dark matter turns up in the new data. If not, we have already begun to make plans for a next generation dark matter experiment. The XLZD (XENON-LUX-ZEPLIN-DARWIN) consortium is aiming to build a detector almost ten times bigger that would allow us to trawl through even more of the space where these ubiquitous yet elusive particles may be hiding.

Theresa Fruth works for the University of Sydney.

– ref. 85% of the matter in the universe is missing. But we’re getting closer to finding it – https://theconversation.com/85-of-the-matter-in-the-universe-is-missing-but-were-getting-closer-to-finding-it-237459

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elizabeth Westrupp, Associate Professor in Psychology, Deakin University

If you’ve ever opened the door to your child’s room only to be greeted by a sea of clothes, toys and who knows what else, you’re not alone.

Among countless reminders, pleading and threats, parents often find themselves in battle with their children when it comes to tidying up. For so many of us, it is an endless cycle of “try and let it go” and then “triggered and explode”. The ongoing conflict this creates can be stressful for everyone.

But you are not doomed to live with piles of Lego, collected sticks and stones – or rooms full of old food and unwashed dishes until your children leave home. There is a different way to approach this.

Why are children and teens messy?

There are developmental reasons for children being messy.

Children and teens don’t fully develop the part of their brain needed for high-level organisation until adulthood, and can be easily overwhelmed by a tidying job.

This should not get them off the hook, though. Practising organisation skills is great for the brain. Research shows helping with tidying up from as early as 18 months is associated with improved prosocial skills (the ability to work with others).

It can also be hard to keep a room tidy if children have too many toys in their room. This means they have to riffle through things or tip out toy baskets to find a toy. Too much choice can also lead children to quickly move from one toy or activity to the next.

Why you shouldn’t just clear it up yourself

As a parent we can get caught in a cycle of feeling overwhelmed and frustrated and become disconnected from our child’s perspective. For younger children, play is work – much of their learning happens as they play.

When we interrupt their play and tidy up their masterpiece, or throw out a special object, it can break trust and feel devastating for them.

For teenagers (and even younger children), having personal space is important to develop a healthy identity and sense of control in their world.

So when parents barge into their room and move their things, this can feel like a violation.

How can make tidying up easier?

• Make time to talk to your child about tidying up at a calm moment (when you’re not asking them to clean anything). Don’t make it a lecture – acknowledge how hard it is to keep their room tidy, ask for their ideas on what might help and decide together on a regular routine (perhaps they always give their room a quick tidy before TV, or it’s a job on a certain day). Discuss what could get in the way and how you will work together.

• Have fewer toys in your child’s room and a special place for these. This can make the room more appealing and organised, inspire play and creativity, and make tidying up easier.

• Notice moments when your children are doing any kind of cleaning up and acknowledge their efforts. Children love to feel noticed – we all do!

• Break the task down into smaller parts for older kids. For example, you could suggest, “what about packing all the Lego into that box” rather than just saying “clean up your room”.

• Be playful with younger children. Cleaning up can be a time for connection. Get them to find all the red toys first, then see how fast they can bring you any socks that need washing.

• Notice the emotions your child feels when you are asking them to tidy up. See these emotions as an opportunity for connection and guidance. For example, “It’s hard to clean up this amazing fort, you worked so hard on this. I love how cosy it is”. And name emotions as you go. For example, “It’s overwhelming when there is so much to clean. Are you worried about where to start?” Or problem solve together: “What could we clean up first?”

• With teenagers, use single word reminders, starting with just one thing that needs cleaning (for example, “washing?” Or “plates?”). Single word reminders allow a teen to save face and prevent battles. Watch your tone of voice and body language – try to stay warm, firm and kind.

Elizabeth Westrupp receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council.

Christiane Kehoe is co-author of the Tuning in to Toddlers, Tuning in to Kids, and Tuning in to Teens parenting programs which teach Emotion Coaching. She works as Tuning in to Kids specialist, Research Manager, and Senior Training co-ordinator at Mindful, Centre for Training and Research in Developmental Health, Department Psychiatry, University of Melbourne and receives royalties from the sale of program manuals.

Gabriella King previously received funding from Deakin University to support their PhD candidature (Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship).

– ref. How can you help your child tidy up their room (without having a massive fight every time)? – https://theconversation.com/how-can-you-help-your-child-tidy-up-their-room-without-having-a-massive-fight-every-time-235517

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katharine Kemp, Associate Professor, Faculty of Law & Justice; Lead, UNSW Public Interest Law & Tech Initiative, UNSW Sydney

Many businesses are trapping Australian consumers in paid subscriptions by making them hard to cancel, hiding important details and offering “free” trials that auto-renew with hefty charges. We need law reform to tackle this continuing problem.

A new report shows 75% of Australian consumers have had negative experiences when trying to cancel a subscription, according to the Consumer Policy Research Centre (CPRC).

It shows businesses use “dark patterns”, which are designs that hinder consumers who try to act in their own best interests. Subscription traps are often called “Hotel California” techniques, referring to The Eagles’ famous lyric: “you can check out any time you want, but you can never leave”.

In some of these cases, consumers may have remedies under our existing consumer law, including for misleading conduct. But we need law reform to capture other unfair practices.

In the meantime, the CPRC’s research also gives examples of businesses with fair, consumer-friendly subscription practices. These also benefit the business.

Examples of unfair subscription traps

Subscription business models have become common – many products are now provided in the form of software, an app or access to a website. Some of these would once have been a physical book, newspaper, CD or exercise class.

Most people who use online services have experienced the frustration of finding a credit card charge for an unwanted, unused subscription or spending excessive time trying to cancel a subscription.

Businesses can make it difficult for consumers to stop paying for unwanted subscriptions. Some do this by allowing consumers to start a subscription with a single click, but creating multiple obstacles if you want to end the subscription.

This can include obscuring cancellation options in the app, requiring consumers to phone during business hours or making them navigate through multiple steps and offers before terminating. The report points out many of the last-ditch discounts offered in this process are only short term. One survey respondent said:

I wasn’t able to cancel without having to call up and speak to someone. Their business hours meant I had to call up during my work day and it took some time to action.

Other businesses badger consumers with frequent emails or messages after they cancel. One respondent said a business made “the cancellation process impossible by making you call and then judging your reason for cancellation”.

What does consumer law say?

Some subscription traps already fall foul of the Australian Consumer Law and warrant investigation by the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission (ACCC). Consumers may have remedies where the business has engaged in misleading conduct or imposes an unfair contract term.

For example, the ACCC is suing dating site eHarmony for its allegedly misleading subscription practices.

In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission has filed a complaint against software company Adobe for allegedly using dark patterns in its subscription practices.

The Federal Trade Commission has alleged that “Adobe pushed consumers toward the ‘annual paid monthly’ subscription without adequately disclosing that cancelling the plan in the first year could cost hundreds of dollars”.

Adobe issued a statement arguing the commission’s complaint “mischaracterises” its business. The litigation is ongoing.

We need an unfair practices prohibition

Some subscription traps would fall outside the existing consumer law. This is because they don’t meet the test for misleading conduct or unfair contract terms, but make it practically very difficult to cancel.

The ACCC has advocated for Australia to follow other countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States to enact an unfair practices prohibition to capture conduct like this.

Better practices benefit businesses too

The CPRC report also revealed that 90% of Australians would likely purchase from the same organisation if cancelling a subscription process was quick and simple.

Businesses focused on a short-sighted cash grab fail to realise that consumers might cancel but later return if treated well.

The CPRC highlights businesses that are doing a good job. For instance, the habit change app Atoms (based on James Clear’s book Atomic Habits) has a genuinely free trial. It doesn’t require credit card details, doesn’t auto-renew, and lets consumers know how many trial days remain.

The CPRC says the charity World Vision doesn’t auto-renew annual sponsorships, but reminds supporters about when the sponsorship will lapse.

Importantly, some businesses – such as Netflix – use their data for good in this context. They notice when users are paying for the service without using it and help them unsubscribe.

These practices should be applauded. But we need an unfair practices prohibition for businesses who don’t follow suit and recognise the long-term benefits of treating customers fairly.

Katharine Kemp is a Member of the Expert Panel of the Consumer Policy Research Centre.

– ref. Why is it so hard to cancel subscriptions or end ‘free’ trials? Report shows how companies trap you into paying – https://theconversation.com/why-is-it-so-hard-to-cancel-subscriptions-or-end-free-trials-report-shows-how-companies-trap-you-into-paying-237236

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Parmeter, Research Scholar, Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, Australian National University

For weeks, Israel had been anticipating a major attack from Hezbollah in retaliation for its killing of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Lebanon at the end of July.

In the early hours of Sunday, that attack finally came – and Israel was apparently ready. The Israelis claim to have thwarted what could have been a large-scale Hezbollah assault. At the same time, Hezbollah also claimed success.

So, what can we make of the latest tit-for-tat between the two sides, and where does the region go from here?

How both sides are seeing things

Clearly, both Israel and Hezbollah have stepped back at this stage from any further action. Hezbollah has qualified this by saying this is only the first phase of its response to Shukr’s assassination, and that it reserves the right to strike further after evaluating the success of Sunday’s operation.

Israel claimed to have seen preparations for perhaps a thousand rockets to be launched across the border, and it preemptively sent around 100 aircraft into southern Lebanon and hit 270 targets, including rocket launchers. Hezbollah is believed to be capable of launching 3,000 missiles a day if a full-scale war were to break out.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed the operation as a success, but said it’s not the end of the story and Israel will strike further if need be.

Hezbollah denies Israel’s strikes did much damage, saying it merely fired into “empty valleys”.

At the same time, Hezbollah retaliated by sending a large number of Katyusha rockets into northern Israel. These are not the biggest rockets in its arsenal – they have a limited range of up to 40 kilometres – so they can only hit targets in northern Israel. Hezbollah said the rockets were meant to make way for a wave of drones to go into Israel. One Israeli Navy sailor was killed in the attack.

In his speech by video on Sunday, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, seemed to be apologising to the Lebanese people for putting them in this position. And that’s possibly not surprising, because Hezbollah is both a political and military actor, and it needs to make sure it continues to win votes in the Lebanese political system.

But Nasrallah said Hezbollah had achieved its objectives and the group was encouraging Lebanese who had moved away from the border to go back. However, that may be a bit premature, because it is still unclear how this will all play out.

What is Iran thinking?

Most analysts had been assuming there might be a coordinated revenge attack for both the killing of Shukr in Beirut and the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July. This may have included missiles and rockets from Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and possibly also the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Shi’a militant groups in Syria and Iraq.

But that didn’t happen. And that could mean a few things.

First, Iran at this stage is likely trying to work out the best way of responding to Haniyeh’s killing. In April, it sent over 300 missiles, drones and rockets into Israel in retaliation for the bombing of an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus in which several Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members were killed. But virtually all of them were shot down and there was no serious damage.

A repeat of that would indicate Iran really doesn’t have the capacity to take serious action against Israel.

At the same time, Iran would also not want to launch a bigger retaliatory strike because that could spark a wider war. And Tehran doesn’t want to give the Americans or Israelis an excuse to launch a concerted attack on its nuclear facilities.

So, Iran is likely trying to work out some mid-point between its April strike and a slightly stronger response. This is clearly taking time.

It may also indicate there’s a debate going inside Iran between those around the newly elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian, who is known to be something of a moderate (in Iranian terms ), and the IRGC, which has been threatening a very hard-line response to Israel for some time.

Iran may have simply decided it will only respond to Israel through its proxies – limited attacks by Hezbollah and the Houthis are all it is willing to do at this stage. But this doesn’t mean the danger is over because the scope for messages to be misunderstood between such hostile antagonists is always there.

Netanyahu under pressure

Netanyahu is also under continued pressure from the right wing of his cabinet, which has long advocated for taking out the Hezbollah threat on Israel’s northern border, even though this is a very difficult task. Israel tried it once before in 2006 and essentially failed.

In addition, about 60,000 Israelis have had to evacuate their homes in northern Israel and are living in temporary accommodation due to the Hezbollah threat. They want Netanyahu to make it safer for them to return.

Responding to military threats on two fronts is difficult for Israel to sustain. Israel’s military has now been been fighting Hamas in Gaza, and to some extent, protecting northern Israel from Hezbollah attacks for nearly 11 months.

The permanent Israeli army is also not that large. It only has about 169,000 regular troops, meaning it must rely on up to 300,000 reservists to meet its current needs.

And the problem with bringing reservists into service: this affects the economy because they leave their jobs. In just the last couple of weeks, the Fitch Ratings agency downgraded Israel’s rating from A to A minus, reflecting the fact the economy is not functioning as well as it should be, in addition to the heightened geopolitical risks. The country is on a perpetual war footing, and the military wants to have a break.

However, Netanyahu is wary of any sort of a pause in the fighting because that could upset his coalition and spark an election, which he would probably lose.

His entire strategy since the October 7 Hamas assault has been to reestablish his security credentials. He needs to be able to show he can counter any threat to Israel to restore the public’s faith in him. To do that, he must re-establish the confidence of those who live in northern Israel and stop the attacks from Hezbollah.

It seems this could go on for quite some time, but Hezbollah has also said it will halt its attacks if there’s a ceasefire in Gaza. So in that sense, we’re stuck in a loop that’s not going to stop until there’s a breakthrough in the ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas.

And given the obstacles that remain on both sides, it’s hard to see that happening any time soon.

Ian Parmeter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Can Israel and Hezbollah both claim success after weekend strikes? And what could happen next? – https://theconversation.com/can-israel-and-hezbollah-both-claim-success-after-weekend-strikes-and-what-could-happen-next-237463

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland

Almost 35 years have passed since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its first assessment report. It found human activities were substantially increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other gases ion the atmosphere, which was warming the global climate.

Since then, countries around the world have introduced a slew of policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But what actually worked?

This question is at the heart of a landmark new paper by German researchers. They analysed 1,500 climate policies implemented around the world over the past two decades, and found only a small fraction were effective.

Importantly, they found most emissions reduction relied on a mix of policies. The results point to a way forward for Australia, where an economy-wide carbon price is currently politically impossible.

Untangling the policy labyrinth

At a global level, emissions-reduction policies have yet to produce the sustained reduction in CO₂ emissions needed to hold global heating below 2°C.

So it’s important to understand how well, or badly, emissions-reduction policies in various countries have worked.

A few ad hoc observations can be made. For example, Australia’s carbon emissions fell during the brief period of the Gillard Labor government’s carbon price, then rose when the Abbott government removed the policy. It is not hard to identify causality here.

Rarely is the cause for success or failure so clear-cut. Globally, in the past few decades, various policies have been introduced, modified, and in some cases, abandoned. It can be seemingly impossible to disentangle their effects.

But a new paper attempts this task.

‘Difference in difference’

The research was led by Annika Stechemesser from Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. It employs a standard technique for determining the effects of a policy intervention, known as the “differences in differences” approach.

This approach compares changes in outcomes over time between two groups. If a policy was ineffective, the differences between the groups should stay the same over time. If the gap changes in the expected direction, the policy is assumed to be effective.

The method was applied most famously in a 1994 study in the United States by economists David Card and Alan Kreuger. They compared fast-food restaurants in New Jersey, where minimum wages were increased, with those in Pennsylvania, where wages were unchanged.

They found the rise in the minimum wage had no effect on the number of people employed by restaurants. The analysis led to a radical change in thinking about minimum wages.

But that analysis involved a single change. The Potsdam team sought to distinguish the effects of more than 1,500 climate policy interventions, implemented across 41 countries over two decades.

It required sorting through a huge volume of data, while applying the “differences in differences” approach. The researchers did this using artificial intelligence.

They analysed four sectors: buildings, electricity, industry and transport. They examined eight kinds of policy interventions, primarily focused on:

• pricing policies, such as carbon taxes and permits that can be bought and sold

• regulation, such as bans, building codes and energy efficiency rules

• applying or removing subsidies, such as governments paying property owners to install rooftop solar, or removing tax breaks for the fossil fuel industry.

What the research found

The researchers identified 63 cases where climate policies had led to large emissions reduction.

Unsurprisingly, though a little disappointingly, no “silver bullet” policy emerged. Rather, most successful cases – at least in developed economies – were the result of two or more policies working together.

This might mean, for example, a fuel efficiency mandate for vehicles, combined with subsidies to help develop a network of charging stations for electric vehicles.

The study also found successful policy mixes vary across sectors. For example in developed countries, pricing was particularly effective policy in sectors dominated by profit-oriented companies, such as electricity and industry. But a mix of incentives and regulations worked best in the buildings and transport sectors.

And countries have different needs, depending on income. In developing countries, for example, pricing interventions did not lead to large emission reductions in the electricity sector. This may change, however, as China gradually develops carbon markets.

The researchers have made the data available to the public in a handy tool. It is easily searchable by sector and country.

The strength of this approach is the ability to integrate analysis across many different countries. However, this global approach precludes a fine-grained analysis for each country.

For example, because Australia’s carbon pricing scheme was so short-lived, and its effects rapidly reversed, the differences-in-differences analysis did not capture its significance.

What can Australia learn?

The research is an impressive effort to distil lessons from the mass of confusing data surrounding climate policy.

The findings would once have been unwelcome news to the economics profession, which in the past has largely advocated for one stand-alone policy applied across the economy – most commonly, putting a price on carbon.

Carbon prices are not a complete solution, but they are important. Research in 2020 showed countries with carbon prices, on average, had annual carbon emissions growth rates two percentage points lower than countries without a carbon price.

Unfortunately in Australia, the federal Coalition is resolutely opposed to any kind of price-based measure to cut emissions. And following the Gillard government’s politically bruising experience over the carbon price, the Albanese government is allergic to any mention of such policies.

So while price-based mechanisms are, theoretically, the ideal way to cut emissions, most economists now accept there’s no point holding out for it. If a combination of measures in different parts of the economy is the best we can do, it’s better than nothing. The important task is to reduce emissions.

The political constraints on price-based policy mean Australia must push harder on other policy approaches – namely regulations and subsidies – to reach net-zero by 2050.

John Quiggin is a former member of the Climate Change Authority

– ref. Researchers analysed 1,500 climate policies to find what works. These are the lessons for Australia – https://theconversation.com/researchers-analysed-1-500-climate-policies-to-find-what-works-these-are-the-lessons-for-australia-237307

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Karen Canfell, Adjunct professor, cancer epidemiology, University of Sydney

Cervical screening in Australia has changed over the past seven years. The test has changed, and women (and people with a cervix) now have much more choice and control. Here’s why – and what you can expect if you’re aged 25 to 74 and are due for a test.

When and why did the test change?

In 2017, Australia became one of the first two countries to transition from Pap smears to tests for the presence of the human papillomavirus (HPV).

HPV causes virtually all cervical cancers, so testing for the presence of this virus is a very good indicator of a person’s current and future risk of the disease.

This contrasts with the older Pap smear technology, which involved inspection of cells every two years for the changes resulting from HPV infection.

The change to screening was supported by a very large body of international and Australian data showing primary testing for HPV is more accurate than Pap smears.

Women and people with a cervix who do not have HPV detected on their test are at a very low risk of developing cervical cancer over the next five years, or even longer. This was the basis for lengthening the screening interval when HPV screening was introduced.

Australia now recommends five-yearly HPV screening, starting at age 25 up to the age of 74 for eligible people, whether or not they have been vaccinated against HPV. Many other countries are following suit to transition to HPV screening.

All established screening tests – which are conducted in people without any symptoms – are associated with health benefits but also with some harms. These can include the psychological and clinical consequences of receiving a “positive” screening result, which needs to be investigated further.

However, recent World Health Organization (WHO) reviews of the evidence have found:

• HPV is a more effective screening test than Pap smears or any other method
• it substantially reduces incidence and death rates from cervical cancer
• it is the method of cervical screening that has the best balance of benefits to harms.

As a consequence, the WHO now unequivocally recommends HPV screening as the best-practice method.

Now you can collect your own sample

One of the major benefits of switching to HPV screening is it opened the door for a person being able to collect their own sample (which was impossible with the Pap smear). If HPV is present, it can be detected in the vagina rather than having to directly sample the cervix.

In 2022, Australia became one of the first countries in the world to introduce a universal option to choose self-collection within a major national-level screening program. This means people eligible for screening, under the guidance of a primary care practitioner, can now choose to collect their own vaginal sample, in privacy, using a simple swab.

By the end of 2023, 27% of people were choosing to take the test this way, but this is on an upward trajectory and is likely to increase further, with an awareness campaign due to start next month.

So what happens when I have a test?

You’ll receive an invitation from the National Cancer Screening Register to attend your first screen when you turn 25. If you’re older, you’ll receive reminders when you are due for your next test. You will be invited to visit your GP or community health service for the test.

You should be asked whether you would prefer to have a clinician collect the test or whether you would prefer to take the sample yourself.

There’s no right or wrong way. The accuracy of testing has been shown to be equivalent for clinician or self-collected sampling. This is a matter of choice.

If the clinician does the test, they will undertake a pelvic examination with a speculum inserted into the vagina. This enables the doctor or nurse to view the cervix and take a sample.

If you are interested in the self-collection option, check whether the practice is offering it when making an appointment.

If you opt for self-collection, you’ll be able to do so in private. You’ll be given a swab (which looks like a COVID test swab with a longer stem), and you’ll be given instructions about how to insert and rotate the swab in the vagina to take the sample. It takes only a few minutes.

What does it mean if my test detects HPV?

If your test detects HPV, this means you have an HPV infection. These are very common and by itself doesn’t mean you have cancer, or even pre-cancer (which involves changes to cervical cells that make them more likely to develop into cancer over time).

It does mean, however, that you are at higher risk of having a pre-cancer, or developing one in future, and that you will benefit from further follow-up or diagnostic testing. Your doctor or nurse will guide you on the next steps in line with national guidelines.

If you require a diagnostic examination, this will involve a procedure called colposcopy, where the cervix is closely examined by a gynaecologist or other specially trained healthcare practitioner, and a small sample may be taken for detailed examination of the cells.

If you have a pre-cancer, you can be treated simply and quickly, usually without needing to be admitted to hospital. Treatment involves ablating or removing a small area of the cervix. This treatment will drastically reduce your risk of ever developing cervical cancer.

What does this mean for cervical cancer rates?

Cervical screening for HPV is a very effective method of preventing cervical cancer. Because of Australia’s HPV screening, combined with HPV vaccination in younger people, Australia is expected to achieve such low rates of cervical cancer by 2035 that it will be considered eliminated.

Last year, the government launched a national strategy for cervical cancer elimination which provides key recommendations for eliminating cervical cancer, and for doing so equitably in all groups of women and people with a cervix.

One of the best things you can do to protect yourself is to have your cervical screening test when you become eligible, whether or not you have been vaccinated against HPV.

Marion Saville, a pathologist and Executive Director at the Australian Centre for the Prevention of Cervical Cancer, co-authored this article.

Karen Canfell receives funding from a range of government and non-government sources. She is co-principal investigator of an investigator-initiated trial of cervical screening, Compass, run by the Australian Centre for Prevention of Cervical Cancer (ACPCC), which is a government-funded not-for-profit charity; the ACPCC has received equipment and a funding contribution from Roche Molecular Diagnostics, and operational support from the Australian Government. She is also co-principal investigator on a major investigator-initiated implementation program Elimination of Cervical Cancer in the Western Pacific (ECCWP) and an extension of this work, the Elimination Partnership in the Indo-Pacific for Cervical Cancer (EPICC). This receives support from the Australian Government’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the Minderoo Foundation and equipment donations from Cepheid.

Deborah Bateson Deborah Bateson is a co-investigator on the implementation program Elimination of Cervical Cancer in the Western Pacific, which has received support from the Minderoo Foundation and equipment donations from Cepheid Inc.

Megan Smith receives funding for research from the Commonwealth Department of Health, and has previously received support from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Cancer Institute NSW and the Australian Centre for the Prevention of Cervical Cancer.

– ref. I’m due for a cervical cancer screening. What can I expect? Can I do it myself? And what happened to Pap smears? – https://theconversation.com/im-due-for-a-cervical-cancer-screening-what-can-i-expect-can-i-do-it-myself-and-what-happened-to-pap-smears-229495

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vivian Gerrand, Research Fellow in the Centre for Resilient and Inclusive Societies, Deakin University

A suite of recent troubling events have once again shone a spotlight on extremist violence, especially the kind involving online radicalisation of young people.

Austrian authorities recently cancelled three Taylor Swift Eras tour concerts after learning of a 19-year-old’s suspected plot to attack attendees at a Vienna stadium.

ASIO Chief Mike Burgess has warned more young people are radicalising online and that we are seeing an acceleration of internet-fuelled violent extremism. “The internet can grab people quickly and hurt young brains which are not fully formed,” he said. “You can fall down a rabbit hole of hate quickly.”

So, why is this happening and what can we do to curb it?

How are young people radicalised online?

Contemporary online environments enable extremism. Big tech digital platforms are designed for profit, rather than democracy. Engagement creates revenue and extreme content tends to increase engagement.

The speed with which we can generate and share disinformation makes it harder than ever to distinguish fact from fiction.

This means extremist recruiters have never been more empowered in their ability to quickly target vulnerable individuals.

But exposure to extreme content does not guarantee radicalisation. Extremist messaging is most effective when it taps into real and perceived grievances young people may be experiencing.

Potentially violent online radicalisation is most likely to happen when young people’s needs are unmet.

This can occur when a person is “red-pilled” through encountering far-right messaging. Or, they may be “black-pilled” while dwelling in an incel forum. Incel stands for “involuntary celibate” and represents a culture of men who, by being unsuccessful so far in attracting a woman, have grown hostile toward women as a whole.

Young men, for example, are increasingly targeted with misogynist content online. Often this content is designed to monetise their insecurities and provide “solutions” to them.

So-called “manosphere” content may influence men to believe feminism is to blame for their struggles. It may increase the likelihood of male violence against women.

Young people seek belonging, dignity and purpose. We know they are more likely to be resilient to violent radicalisation when they feel connected to like-minded others, and to people who think differently to them. It is also important they feel they can trust institutions and engage in civic participation.

Most young people who are recruited by extremist groups are led to believe they are mobilising for a “just cause” that seeks to uphold human dignity.

We should remember the internet can also enable positive forms of radicalisation. For example, people can be radicalised to engage in democracy. We can see this happening in a “coconut-pilled” resistance to the far-right movement linked to US presidential candidate Donald Trump.

What can we do to intervene?

Research I undertook
as part of the Building Resilience Against Violent Extremism and Polarisation project reveals that grassroots arts-based work can support people to disengage from online extremism.

Such interventions are relatable and steer people toward positive social action.

Take, for example, online gaming. While often associated with recruitment into hate-based ideologies, online gaming cultures can also be used to educate young people about extremism.

Loulu is one such initiative.

Designed by German organisation Onlinetheater.live in collaboration with HAU Hebbel am Ufer Performance art theatre, Loulu is a digital, interactive game. It cleverly educates players about the manipulation tactics of the far right.

The caption on the Instagram post above, in English, says:

Loulu – an interactive fiction about far-right and anti-feminist networks on the internet […] Together with @kulturstiftungdesbundes and supported by @hauberlin we have developed an app [that] reflects the manipulation strategies of right-wing and anti-feminist networks.

This award-winning free smartphone app is designed to educate about online radicalisation pathways via a fictional influencer called Loulu.

The game is set in a fictional city in Germany where a far-right terrorist attack has just occurred.

Taking an interactive format, Loulu presents a true-to-life scenario in a visually appealing and sophisticated design. The game helps build players’ critical thinking skills and bolster their resilience to the recruitment efforts of violent online extremist groups.

Alternative narrative strategies

Memes by feminist artist influencer Lily O’Farrell (@vulgadrawings) are another example of a successful communications intervention.

The artist began to engage with the nuances of the manosphere in 2021 after she started talking to young men trolling her on Instagram.

These men had become aware of her account after it was shared in a men’s rights subreddit group.

Concerned the group was made up of young men predominantly aged 16-23, O’Farrell decided to investigate the movement by joining incel subreddit groups.

Following these investigations, the cartoonist produced a series of drawings titled Everything I’ve learned about incels. This series illuminated the incelosphere for her mostly feminist 319,000 followers.

Instead of demonising incels, her drawings provide an anatomy of the movement that gives viewers insight into its black-pilled logic.

O’Farrell acknowledges the real and perceived grievances of young men in these groups.

These include loneliness, body-image insecurities and a lack of mental health support, all blamed by incels on women.

The artist’s cartoons expose the root causes of these grievances as being tied to the structures of patriarchy.

This helps young male viewers on the incel spectrum to see that women are not responsible for, but are instead also victims of, such structures.

The artist’s drawings are an excellent example of an alternative narrative strategy that can help disrupt violent radicalisation through critically empathetic engagement.

Vivian Gerrand received funding from the European Commission for the Horizon 2020 Building Resilience Against Violent Extremism and Polarisation (BRaVE) Project 2019-2021, grant no. 822189.

– ref. The internet makes it too easy to ‘fall down a rabbit hole of hate’. So, what works to curb online extremism? – https://theconversation.com/the-internet-makes-it-too-easy-to-fall-down-a-rabbit-hole-of-hate-so-what-works-to-curb-online-extremism-236503

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jamie Wood, Senior Lecturer in Ecology and Evolution, University of Adelaide

Most fungi need only wind or water to disperse their spores. But some, including truffles, need a little help from animals.

Usually, truffles and truffle-like fungi (which don’t belong to the truffle genus, but are otherwise similar) are dull-coloured and grow underground.

They use scent to attract mammals, which eat them and disperse the spores across the landscape in their dung. This ancient truffle-mammal relationship is why truffle pigs and truffle dogs (and many humans) love eating these fungi.

But Aotearoa New Zealand had no native land mammals to disperse truffles. Our new study resolves a 30-year mystery about whether fruit-eating birds might instead have taken this role.

NZ’s unusually colourful truffle-like fungi

In most ecosystems, truffles are eaten by small mammals, especially rodents and marsupials, which are critical for fungal dispersal and forest health.

In the 1990s, mycologist Ross Beever noticed something odd about truffle-like fungi growing in New Zealand.

Many had brightly coloured fruiting bodies which emerged above the forest floor, essentially mimicking fallen fruit. Because of New Zealand’s lack of mammals (with the exception of bats), Beever hypothesised that these characteristics had evolved to attract birds as spore dispersers because they rely more on vision than scent to find food.

Beever and his colleague Teresa Lebel detailed this fascinating hypothesis elegantly in 2014, but it remained untested for three decades.

Using colour to draw attention

In our research, we asked whether New Zealand really has more brightly coloured truffle-like fungi or whether we are simply paying more attention to them and under-appreciating the dull ones. And we investigated if there was a link between their distribution and fruit-eating birds.

First, we gathered information about the colour and habit (above or below ground) of 479 truffle-like fungus species from around the world. We then obtained more than 24,000 locations for these species from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database.

These data were analysed alongside environmental factors (such as precipitation and temperature) and biological aspects (such as forest cover and the presence of fruit-eating birds) that might help explain any spatial patterns.

While colourful truffle-like fungi are also found in South and Central America and Australia, our results confirmed New Zealand has a much greater proportion compared to other landmasses. This is especially true for red and blue coloured species.

We also found that, across the world, regions with more fruit-eating birds also had more colourful truffle-like fungi.

Birds, truffle-like fungi and trees

Until recently, birds were thought to have a limited role in dispersing truffle-like fungi.

But this changed in 2021, when a study of faecal samples from two fruit-eating bird species from Patagonia (Chucao tapaculo and Black-throated huet-huet) found DNA and spores from a wide range of fungi, including truffle-like fungi.

The research team also observed both bird species uncovering truffles on the forest floor, thereby demonstrating the important role birds could have in fungal dispersal.

A further finding of the Patagonian study was that many of the truffle-like fungi detected in the faecal samples are part of the underground network of fungi-plant root interactions known as mycorrhiza.

In New Zealand, most colourful truffle-like fungi are also mycorrhizal with locally dominant forest trees such as beeches and podocarps. These fungi make it easier for the trees to access water and mineral nutrients from the soil. Therefore, birds that eat truffle-like fungi may not only be important for the fungi themselves, but for entire forest ecosystems.

A legacy of extinction

The results of our study support the idea that colourful truffle-like fungi are adapted for bird dispersal, and that they are more common in New Zealand than elsewhere in the world.

Yet, paradoxically, the number of observed instances of local birds eating truffle-like fungi can be counted on one hand. Why is this? The answer may lie in New Zealand’s legacy of extinction.

Around one third of all bird species on the mainland and offshore islands have become extinct since the first human settlers arrived during the 13th century. Many more have had their populations reduced to the point of functional extinction. Among these are many large birds known to have eaten fruit, including nine species of moa and kākāpō.

In 2018, a study of DNA from ancient dung of moa and kākāpō found evidence these birds once ate mycorrhizal truffle-like fungi. The loss of such birds from New Zealand’s forests represents the end of millions of years of co-evolution with fungi.

These bird-adapted fungi may now remain as ghosts of past mutualisms – the association between organisms of two different species in which each benefits – much like the large tropical fruit once eaten by gomphotheres, an extinct group related to modern elephants.

How will our forest trees cope with the loss of these bird-fungus interactions, which help facilitate plant growth on bare soils? Can introduced animal species act as surrogate dispersers for native fungi?

The implications for forests, haunted by species loss, remain unknown. With continued research and conservation efforts, however, we can better understand and support the balance of our forest ecosystems to ensure the rich and unique biodiversity of New Zealand’s forests endures for generations to come.

This study received funding from Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden Fund.

– ref. Colourful fruit-like fungi and forests ‘haunted by species loss’ – how we resolved a 30-year evolutionary mystery – https://theconversation.com/colourful-fruit-like-fungi-and-forests-haunted-by-species-loss-how-we-resolved-a-30-year-evolutionary-mystery-236425

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Claire Nicholls, Lecturer in Music Education, University of Southern Queensland

OK, tell me if you’ve heard this one: what did the percussionist say when they landed their first job?

“Would you like fries with that?”

It’s just a joke, right? Unfortunately for many aspiring percussionists even getting a foot in the door to complete a university qualification yet alone secure full time, paid and ongoing work as a professional musician is not too far from this reality.

While there are endless percussionist jokes to make – and there are thousands – I think we seriously underestimate the expertise, musicianship and teamwork percussionists bring to the orchestra and our favourite music. Not to mention the years of practice, heavy lifting, early set-ups, late pack downs, counting endless bars of rest, waiting for the vital moment in a symphony, and the mastery required to play the many instruments demanded of both “classical” and contemporary orchestral repertoire.

Let’s take a moment to appreciate the humble percussionist, what it takes to train as a professional drummer, and their sometimes less-than-obvious valuable contributions to the music we love.

A difficult road

Most large university Bachelor of Music programs will offer an average of but 40 positions per year. Few accepted will be pianists and percussionists.

A quick internet search of the nine professional orchestras in Australia reveals there is an average of 2.8 percussionists (including timpanists, who specialise in only the timpani, or kettledrums, rather than playing the wide variety of other instruments) per orchestra, out of a total of over 500 professional positions within Australian orchestras.

Permanent paid and full-time orchestral jobs are extremely competitive. This is especially true in Australia, as we have so few professional symphony orchestras compared to around the world. Like other artists in Australia, percussionists face higher rates of under- or unemployment, and lower incomes than others with similar levels of training.

The precarious work of contract artists also involve high hidden costs and unremunerated self-development costs. For many percussionists, making a living is extremely difficult.

Juggling many balls

Orchestral percussionists must be true multi-instrumentalists.

Except for timpani, which tend to be a speciality within itself, percussionists must navigate and master an ever-growing world of instruments in addition to the traditional orchestral percussion to meet the modern repertoire demands spanning far past “classical music”.

Everything from a giant hammer (I’m looking at you Mahler!), to African talking drums, the Indonesian gamelan and thunder sheets. Then there is the myriad of tuned percussion – instruments that can play melodies, for example the xylophone, marimba, tubular bells and glockenspiel – all the way to the humble triangle.

Each instrument comes with its own playing technique, cultural history and significance, mechanism of sound production and instrument maintenance requirements. Not to mention choosing the correct mallet or beater to make the timbre (sound quality) required of the music, expected by the composer, and what the conductor wants.

In addition to counting endless bars of rest and being masters of rhythm, the percussionist faces a unique challenge that no other instrument in the orchestra has to battle. Once the instrument is struck, shaken or scraped there is nothing the musician can do to change the quality of the sound.

A violinist or flautist can alter the movement of their bow or expression of air. However, can you imagine the pressure to produce perfection every time while being completely assured you are playing at the exact vital moment in a symphony?

And there’s no one else to copy because, you’re it!

To add to this, percussionists within an orchestral concert will be responsible for multiple parts and instruments. That requires some serious organisation and knowledge of the repertoire being played. Consider frequently performed works such as Holt’s Planets requiring not one but two timpanists on two sets of timpani to seamlessly manage our favourite melodies in Jupiter: The Bringer of Jollity.

Perhaps not such a jolly time for the percussionists.

A mainstay of culture

Can we really imagine our favourite car-sing-along song without that driving rhythm that gets our heart pumping and fingers tapping? The timpani in a much-loved symphony or suite? How about the famous Hedwig’s theme from Harry Potter without the celeste (a piano-like instrument with chime bards instead of strings) bringing a certain magic and mystery? Or Bluey without the textures, timbres and narratives captured through percussion instruments?

With perhaps the exception of the human voice, percussion instruments were the first attempts of music used by our cave dwelling ancestors. Music may have evolved, but percussion endures.

Around the world, percussion is universal. Without these diverse sounds we would be all the poorer. We cannot imagine a world without the rich tapestry of timbres percussion instruments and their musicians offer. Not only in terms of music, but also when it comes to ritual, celebration, entertainment and culture beyond the concert hall.

Even as audiences we use percussion to express our delight and gratitude through applause.

So next time you see someone at the back of the orchestra with their many varied percussion instruments, take a moment to reflect on and thank these masters of rhythm and timbre as part of the music you love.

Claire Nicholls does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘She’s just hitting a triangle?’ Why being a percussionist is harder – and more crucial – than you may think – https://theconversation.com/shes-just-hitting-a-triangle-why-being-a-percussionist-is-harder-and-more-crucial-than-you-may-think-237040

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susanne Lloyd-Jones, Cyber Security Cooperative Research Centre Post Doctoral Fellow, UNSW Sydney

Last week, quantum computers were added to Australia’s Defence and Strategic Goods List of controlled items facing export restrictions. That’s because quantum technologies – which may soon provide huge advances in computing, communication and sensing – are rapidly growing in strategic importance.

The AUKUS partnership between Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom includes arrangements for sharing quantum technologies. Last year, Australia and the UK agreed to cooperate on quantum by sharing research and expertise and encouraging investment. A similar arrangement was signed with the US in 2021.

Governments and businesses are jostling for economic, strategic and defensive advantage. Nobody knows which approaches to the technology will prove successful, nor which countries will come out ahead.

Despite this uncertainty, Australia needs to make decisions about investment and regulation or risk being left behind. We think the best way to do this is by creating an accord between government, private industry, tech workers and researchers to create consensus on the best way forward.

A controversial investment

In April, the federal and Queensland governments invested A$466 million each in a US company called PsiQuantum, which is aiming to build “the world’s first useful quantum computer”. The deal was widely criticised for a lack of transparency and for bypassing Australian companies.

Investing in quantum technology is highly uncertain and complex. Researchers around the globe are making rapid progress, and calls for countries to develop their own sovereign capability are growing louder. At the same time, there is no shortage of hype from companies and researchers promoting their own work.

Giant companies such as Google, IBM, Microsoft and AWS are sometimes seen as “leaders” in quantum tech, but there are many other players in the field.

Several are based in Australia. These include research institutions as well as companies such as Quintessence Labs, Diraq, Quantum Brilliance, Silicon Quantum Computing and Nomad Atomics.

Last year, our government published a national quantum strategy, but it’s unclear how it should be implemented in the current messy environment, even with CSIRO’s roadmap.

In April, the University of Sydney was awarded A$18.4 million to set up Quantum Australia to be the “single front door” for quantum in Australia. Quantum Australia is in its infancy and it’s still unclear what its governance capacity will be.

More broadly, tech policy researchers have called for a more coordinated and regulated national approach to technology policy.

Is it time for a national accord on quantum?

Other countries are taking a much stronger approach to quantum coordination and cooperation.

In Europe, the Quantum Flagship establishes a working agreement between industry, governments and academia. In the US, QED-C established a consortium of stakeholders from government, academia, and industry to “identify gaps in technology, standards, and workforce and to address those gaps through collaboration”. In the UK, the National Quantum Computing Centre brings together businesses, the research community and government to enable the UK to secure a competitive position in the quantum industry.

What might this kind of coordination look like in Australia? We think it might look like an accord: a structured and formal mechanism for articulating a range of different agendas.

Our research looked at quantum tech arrangements in Australia, the UK, the US, India and the EU. We found examples of inclusive, structured, formal arrangements that feature government, private industry, industry leaders, academic bodies and academic researchers.

Europe has the most complex and far-reaching governance structure with its Quantum Flagship. We think an Australian accord needs to include representatives of the tech workforce too.

In the 1980s, Australia’s Prices and Incomes Accord famously forged a “working partnership” between government, employers and unions. It came at a time of economic uncertainty in Australia as market liberalism was sweeping through the English-speaking world.

Read more:
The lessons of the Accord for Modern Times: think outside the box

Could a quantum accord achieve a similar consensus today?

Why an accord?

Technological innovation and sovereign capability are key pillars of the government’s Future Made in Australia funding and reform package. This ambitious agenda will require commitment, coordination and leadership.

At present, government, local companies and local researchers are divided on the best way forward for quantum tech in Australia. A quantum tech accord could help address these conflicts. It could also help soothe tensions between the short-term interests of individuals and organisations and the long-term interests of the nation.

An accord could be a structured and consensus-building way to approach contested ideas about innovation, ethics, sovereignty, competitive advantage, regulation and skills. It could also help the Australian public better understand quantum technologies and the importance of domestic investment in these technologies, given there is little current understanding.

A practical mechanism for facing uncertainty

It is not easy to govern in the face of uncertain technological advancements and innovation. There may be no “right answers” to many decisions.

The advantage of a quantum tech accord is that it represents a practical mechanism pursued within economic, geopolitical and security constraints. It could provide an overarching governance structure and framework for coordinated policy and regulatory decision-making that favours consensus over seeming big-dog-eat-little-dog deals.

A quantum tech accord could embed Australia’s democratic values and governance into its purpose, terms and frameworks. This would also serve to establish a foundation for the ethical and responsible use of quantum technologies in the future.

Successive governments have committed billions to growing Australian quantum technology and fostering innovation. As a result of decades of sustained investment and funding of research and education, Australia’s growing quantum industry is up there with the best in the world.

Science and Industry minister Ed Husic has said the government does not want to repeat the mistakes of the past and miss the quantum wave. Maybe a quantum tech accord is an option to find a practical way forward.

The authors would like to thank UNSW Allens Hub Scholar Sally Song and UNSW Allens Hub Research Officer Jennifer Westmorland for their research assistance.

Dr Susanne Lloyd-Jones receives funding as a postdoctoral fellow from the Cyber Security Cooperative Research Centre whose activities are partially funded by the Australian government’s Cooperative Research Centres Program. Susanne also received funding from the UNSW Allens Hub for Technology, Law and Innovation for this work. She is a member of the UNSW Institute for Cyber and the UNSW Institute for AI. Susanne will commence work with the Australian Computer Society after the completion of her postdoctoral fellowship in 2024. This work was undertaken independently of the Australian Computer Society and does not represent or express its views.

Kayleen Manwaring has received funding for this research from the Cyber Security Cooperative Research Centre and the UNSW Allens Hub for Innovation, Law and Technology. She also sits on the executive committee of the Australian chapter of the IEEE Society on Social Implications for Technology, and is a member of the Research Committee of Consumer Policy Research Centre Ltd.

– ref. Quantum tech is a high-stakes gamble. Here’s how Australia can find a way forward – https://theconversation.com/quantum-tech-is-a-high-stakes-gamble-heres-how-australia-can-find-a-way-forward-237361

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nils Birkholz, Postdoctoral Fellow in Molecular Microbiology, University of Otago

As the globe faces a rise in antibiotic-resistant bacteria – making traditional antibiotics ineffective – specific viruses could offer a solution.

Viruses called bacteriophages, or phages, target bacteria but can’t infect humans or other higher organisms. Phages inject their DNA into the bacterial cell, multiply to large numbers using the resources of the host, and then burst out to infect more bacteria in the vicinity.

Essentially, they are a naturally occurring, self-replicating and specific antibiotic. Discovered more than 100 years ago, their use against bacteria was largely sidelined in favour of antibiotics.

Our new research looked at one particular protein used by phages to bypass the natural defences of bacteria. We found this protein has an essential control function by binding to DNA and RNA.

This increased understanding is an important step towards using phages against bacterial pathogens in human health or agriculture.

Bacterial defence systems

There are hurdles to using phages to target bacteria. Much like our bodies have immune mechanisms to fight off viruses, bacteria have also evolved defences against phage infections.

One such defence are “clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats”, or CRISPR, now better known for its applications in medicine and biotechnology. CRISPR systems in general act as “molecular scissors” by cutting DNA into pieces, be it in a lab-based setting or, in nature, inside a bacterium to destroy a phage.

Imagine wanting to use a phage against an antibiotic-resistant bacterial infection. The only thing standing in the way of that phage killing the bacteria and eradicating the infection might be the bacterium’s CRISPR defence which renders the phages useless as an antimicrobial.

That’s where knowing as much as possible about phage counter-defences becomes important. We are investigating so-called anti-CRISPRs: proteins or other molecules that phages use to inhibit CRISPR.

A bacterium that has CRISPR might be able to stop a phage from infecting. But if the phage has the right anti-CRISPR, it can neutralise this defence and kill the bacterium regardless.

The importance of anti-CRISPRs

Our recent research focused on how an anti-CRISPR response is controlled.

When faced with a powerful CRISPR defence, phages want to automatically produce large amounts of anti-CRISPR to increase the chance of inhibiting CRISPR immunity. But excessive production of anti-CRISPR prevents the replication of the phage and is ultimately toxic. This is why control is important.

To achieve this control, phages have another protein in their toolbox: an anti-CRISPR-associated (or Aca) protein that frequently occurs alongside the anti-CRISPRs themselves.

Aca proteins act as regulators of the phage’s counter-defence. They make sure the initial burst of anti-CRISPR production that inactivates CRISPR is then rapidly dampened to low levels. That way, the phage can allocate energy to where it is most needed: its replication and, eventually, release from the cell.

We found this regulation occurs at multiple levels. For any protein to be produced, the gene sequence in the DNA first needs to be transcribed into a messenger–RNA. This is then decoded, or translated, into a protein.

Many regulatory proteins function by inhibiting the first step (transcription into messenger-RNA), some others inhibit the second (translation into protein). Either way, the regulator often acts as a “road block” of sorts, binding to DNA or RNA.

Intriguingly and unexpectedly, the Aca protein we investigated does both – even though its structure would suggest it is merely a transcriptional regulator (a protein that regulates the conversion of DNA to RNA), very similar to ones that have been investigated for decades.

We also examined why this extra-tight control at two levels is necessary. Again, it seems to be all about the dosage of the anti-CRISPRs, especially as the phage replicates its DNA in the bacterial cell. This replication will invariably lead to the production of messenger-RNAs even in the presence of transcriptional control.

Therefore, it appears additional regulation is required to reign in anti-CRISPR production. This comes back to the toxicity of excessive production of this counter-defence protein, to the harm done when there’s “too much of a good thing”.

Fine-tuned control

What does this research mean in the grand scheme of things? We now know a lot more about how anti-CRISPR deployment occurs. It requires fine-tuned control to enable the phage to be successful in its battle against the host bacterium.

This is important out in nature, but also when it comes to using phages as alternative antimicrobials.

Knowing every detail about something as obscure-sounding as anti-CRISPR-associated proteins might make all the difference between the phage succeeding or succumbing —and between life or death, not just for the phage, but also for a person infected with antibiotic-resistant bacteria.

Nils Birkholz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Viruses can work where antibiotics don’t – new research tells us more about how they fight bacteria – https://theconversation.com/viruses-can-work-where-antibiotics-dont-new-research-tells-us-more-about-how-they-fight-bacteria-236498

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Levinson, Professor of Transport, University of Sydney

Public transport ridership has taken a beating in many Australian cities since the onset of COVID. With more people still working from home – typically office workers who had been concentrated in central business districts – passenger numbers remain well below pre-COVID levels on routes serving those CBDs.

In any market, when supply is largely fixed and demand drops, a natural response is to lower prices. Queensland has cut public transport fares to only 50 cents for a six-month trial. Canberra is about to offer free fares for the next couple of months.

When cities elsewhere have cut fares, passenger numbers have increased. It happened in Perth when public transport was free for a month last summer. Melbourne has a free tram zone in the CBD. But it’s not a simple equation. There are many factors at work.

Will lower fares lead to a lasting uplift in passenger numbers? Will the results differ between free and almost-free travel?

The Queensland and ACT fare cuts are fascinating experiments that could well change how public transport fares are set in Australia.

What impacts do fares have?

First, fares help cover the costs of the service and perhaps even generate profit. However, the “farebox recovery ratio” – the share of operating costs paid by fares – is low (under 30%) in most Australian cities. This means fares contribute nothing directly towards building rail lines or repaying funders, much less earning a profit.

Second, fares may be set to ration use by time of day. So lower off-peak fares give people an incentive to travel at less busy times.

Third, fares deter people who might otherwise use stations or vehicles as a temporary shelter or refuge.

These many competing purposes can result in confusing or even self-defeating fare structures.

Sydney, for example, uses concession rates for certain users, peak pricing for certain times of day and weekly caps on how much the heaviest users have to pay. For some distances, buses and light rail are more expensive than trains. For others they are not.

In such cases, fares can be too low to contribute much to running the system but too high to attract enough riders to match system capacity.

How sensitive are people to fare changes?

For small changes, the rule of thumb from empirical studies has been that a 10% increase in fares loses about 3-4% of riders, but there is wide variance.

Studies in the United States have found demand in large metro areas was less sensitive to fares than small areas in the long run.

But with big fare changes, we cannot be as sure. We cannot confidently predict a 50% cut in fares will result in a 15% increase in passengers, or that free travel will lead to a 30% or 40% increase. That is, however, what New South Wales’ Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal (IPART) found in 2020 when studying free fares in Sydney, which it did not recommend.

It’s not a simple matter of price

Responses to fare changes depend on context. We see sensitivity to long-term changes in fares for passengers who change from a discounted concession card, such as tertiary students, to a full-rate adult card, leading to a reduction in their use.

However, other factors confound changes in demand due to price. A person’s new workplace might be harder to get to using public transport than driving. They might have less flexibility to travel at off-peak times. Or having bought their own car might affect their travel choices, as might petrol prices and other costs of living.

For a short-term, well-publicised cut in fares, people may take advantage of it to make trips they otherwise would not have taken, or would have done by car, on foot or on bike. In contrast, people are not going to give up their car if they expect fares will soon return to previous levels.

One thing a short-run change can do is give people who have never ridden the bus or train (or haven’t in many years) a taste. If they like it, it could lead to a permanent uplift in their use.

What does overseas experience tell us?

Several places overseas have experimented with fare structure.

In the northern summer of 2022, Germany introduced a discounted €9 (about A$15) per month ticket. There was an 8% increase in travel – only a 3% increase was attributable to gaining a taste for public transport. A minority of trips replaced those that would otherwise have been made by car. Regular public transport use rose from 29% of travellers to 38% once the €9 ticket came in, then settled at 32% afterwards.

Tallinn in Estonia was one of the first capital cities to offer fare-free public transport. After some years, there was a clear increase in ridership from 55% to 63%. Three points came from a shift from private cars and the other five from walking.

So how do we assess the Australian experiments?

The decision to make the Queensland system nearly free – charging 50 cents instead of nothing – has been justified as a way to gather information about public transport use through the tap-on and tap-off process. While this is a real benefit, it might mean the benefits of a fare-free system aren’t fully unleashed.

First, in-vehicle tapping on and off can increase the time users take to board and alight, causing delays and effectively reducing the speed of the service. This adds to running costs as more vehicles are needed to provide the same frequency of services. More importantly, it makes public transport less competitive with private cars.

Second, it’s costly to collect fares. The cost might be greater than the revenue from the 50-cent fare. On the other hand, a small price might help deter people from using the system as shelter and short-distance walkers who might switch to a free service.

We won’t know what would happen in Queensland if public transport were fully free, though Canberra will provide a useful counterpoint. The results of these trials may soon reshape public transport fare-setting in Australia.

David Levinson has received research funding from ARC, UDIA-NSW, iMOVE, and Sydney Metro. He is affiliated with WalkSydney and Peaceful Bayside.

Emily Moylan has received funding from Transport for NSW.

Andres Fielbaum does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. 50 cents, 0 cents, 1 question: how much can fare cuts boost public transport use? – https://theconversation.com/50-cents-0-cents-1-question-how-much-can-fare-cuts-boost-public-transport-use-236574

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew King, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, The University of Melbourne

It’s winter in Australia, but as you’ve probably noticed, the weather is unusually warm. The top temperatures over large parts of the country this weekend were well above average for this time of year.

The outback town of Oodnadatta in South Australia recorded 38.5°C on Friday and 39.4°C on Saturday – about 16°C above average. Both days were well above the state’s previous winter temperature record. In large parts of Australia, the heat is expected to persist into the coming week.

A high pressure system is bringing this unusual heat – and it’s hanging around. So temperature records have already fallen and may continue to be broken for some towns in the next few days.

It’s no secret the world is warming. In fact, 2024 is shaping up to be the hottest year on record. Climate change is upon us. Historical averages are becoming just that: a thing of the past.

That’s why this winter heat is concerning. The warming trend will continue for at least as long as we keep burning fossil fuels and polluting the atmosphere. Remember, this is only August. The heatwaves of spring and summer are only going to be hotter.

Records broken across Australia

The Bureau of Meteorology was expecting many records to be broken over the weekend across several states. On Thursday, bureau meteorologist Angus Hines described:

A scorching end to winter, with widespread heat around the country in coming days, including the chance of winter records across multiple states for maximum temperature.

The amount of heat plunging into central Australia was particularly unusual, Hines said.

On Friday, temperatures across northern South Australia and southern parts of the Northern Territory were as much as 15°C above average.

Temperatures continued to soar across northern parts of Western Australia over the weekend, with over 40°C recorded at Fitzroy Crossing on Sunday. It has been 2–12°C above average from Townsville all the way down to Melbourne for several days in a row.

Bear in mind, it’s only August. As Hines said, the fire weather season hasn’t yet hit most of Australia – but the current conditions – hot, dry and sometimes windy – are bringing moderate to high fire danger across Australia. It may also bring dusty conditions to central Australia.

And for latitudes north of Sydney and Perth, most of the coming week will be warm.

What’s causing the winter warmth?

In recent days a stubborn high pressure system has sat over eastern Australia and the Tasman Sea. It has kept skies clear over much of the continent and brought northerly winds over many areas, transporting warm air to the south.

High pressure promotes warm weather – both through clearer skies that bring more sunshine, and by promoting the descent of air which causes heating.

By late August, both the intensity of the sun and the length of the day has increased. So the centre of Australia can really warm up when under the right conditions.

High pressure in June can be associated with cooler conditions, because more heat is lost from the surface during those long winter nights. But that’s already less of an issue by late August.

This kind of weather setup has occurred in the past. Late-winter or early-spring heat does sometimes occur in Australia. However, this warm spell is exceptional, as highlighted by the broken temperature records across the country.

Feeling the heat

The consequences of humanity’s continued greenhouse gas emissions are clear. Australia’s winters are getting warmer overall. And winter “heatwaves” are becoming warmer.

Australia’s three warmest Augusts on record have all occurred since 2000 – and last August was the second-warmest since 1910. When the right weather conditions occur for winter warmth across Australia, the temperatures are higher than a century ago.

The warmth we are experiencing now comes off the back of a recent run of global temperature records and extreme heat events across the Northern Hemisphere.

This warm spell is set to continue, with temperatures above 30°C forecast from Wednesday through to Sunday in Brisbane. The outlook for spring points to continued above-normal temperatures across the continent, but as always we will likely see both warm and cold spells at times.

Such winter warmth is exceptional and already breaking records. Climate change is already increasing the frequency and intensity of this kind of winter heat – and future warm spells will be hotter still, if humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions continue.

Andrew King receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather and the National Environmental Science Program.

– ref. 40°C in August? A climate expert explains why Australia is ridiculously hot right now – https://theconversation.com/40-c-in-august-a-climate-expert-explains-why-australia-is-ridiculously-hot-right-now-237398

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emmanuel Josserand, Professor of Management, EMLV, Paris and Adjunct Fellow, University of Technology Sydney

From today, Monday August 26, many employees in Australia get a new right, called the right to disconnect from work.

This entails the right to refuse to read or respond to work-related calls, texts and emails outside their working hours, unless that refusal is unreasonable.

The Fair Work Commission says what will matter is whether the refusal is unreasonable, rather than whether the attempted contact is unreasonable.

Among the things that will determine whether a refusal is unreasonable are the employee’s role, their personal circumstances, the method and reason for
the contact, how much disruption it causes them and whether they are compensated for being available or for working additional hours.

Those working for small businesses (with fewer than 15 employees) get the right to disconnect in August 2025.

As with any changes to conditions of employment, it has sparked heated debate.

Supporters say the right to disconnect is needed to slow the encroachment of work into personal life. Opponents say it will harm productivity and flexibility.

Fortunately, we’ve clues from overseas to guide us.

France was the first country to introduce a right to disconnect in 2017, followed by
Belgium, Italy, Argentina, Chile, Luxembourg, Mexico, Philippines, Russia, Slovakia, Spain, Ontario in Canada, and Ireland.

An analysis of these laws and their impact, which we are preparing for the Journal of Industrial Relations, finds that while they can improve work-life balance and wellbeing, their success depends on how they are implemented and enforced within each workplace.

Employers that take right to disconnect laws seriously offer more compensation to those who are interrupted than companies that don’t, in the form of pay or time off in lieu. Unpaid overtime is significantly more common in companies without a right to disconnect policy.

In the countries that have a right to disconnect, only about 45% of workers say they are aware of it being offered in their workplace, and only about half of them say they are aware of actions to enforce it.

What matters is agreement in the workplace

In some countries, including France, the law requires that employers and employee representatives come together to negotiate specific rules about when work should stop and personal time should begin.

This means that in France, there are often clear agreements about when workers can ignore emails or calls.

In Belgium, instead of making it mandatory for companies to enforce the right, the law encourages discussions about it in health and safety committees. So, while there isn’t a strict rule forcing companies to ensure workers can disconnect, there is a system in place to have conversations about it.

What each country has in common is the idea that employers and employees need to work together to find a balance between work and personal time.

This suggests that merely introducing legislation is not enough: effective implementation requires clear guidelines, awareness-raising, and a cultural shift within workplaces.

Companies need to get things right at the start

A key challenge in Australia will be to make clear what is a “reasonable” refusal of a work-related contact and what is not.

The Fair Work Commission wants employers and employees to attempt to resolve this themselves before escalating disputes to the Commission.

An important part of this is consultation within workplaces at the beginning to develop training and protocols tailored to each role.

There are also practical steps workplaces can take to curb the flow of work-related information, such as disabling notifications after hours, setting up automatic out-of-office replies and scheduling emails rather than sending them immediately.

Employers should lead by example

The biggest challenge will be a cultural shift that prioritises employee wellbeing. Hyperconnectivity need not be an inevitable consequence of modern work life.

Managers should lead by example by respecting non-work hours themselves and avoiding after-hours communication.

The continued existence of the new right is far from certain. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has promised to repeal the right if he wins the next election, saying it will make it impossible for some businesses to employ staff.

Success will depend on employers and their workers agreeing on clear ground rules from the beginning.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Australians now have the right to disconnect – but how workplaces react will be crucial – https://theconversation.com/australians-now-have-the-right-to-disconnect-but-how-workplaces-react-will-be-crucial-237023

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

An “aviation industry ombuds scheme” and improved assistance for passengers with a disability will be among measures the federal government will announce on Monday to force airlines to address the extensive public discontent with their services.

A new aviation customer rights charter will set out “fair and reasonable” conduct by airlines and airports, including when flights are delayed or cancelled.

It will cover customers’ entitlements to refunds, and when these must be provided in cash rather than with travel vouchers.

This follows class actions against both Qantas and Jetstar that allege they have failed to provide timely cash refunds for cancelled flights, despite being legally obliged to do so.

Both airlines issued vouchers instead of cash refunds, initially with expiry dates.

The class action against Qantas has entered mediation. That against Jetstar was launched last week.

The customer rights charter will also address “unreasonable” lengths of delays and timely communication with passengers.

Transport Minister Catherine King will release the government’s white paper on aviation, with legislation planned for next year, after further consultations. In the meantime an interim ombudsperson will be appointed from her department.

King said too many people had been “left out to dry when flights are cancelled or disrupted and it’s impossibly complex to get a refund or even contact a company representative.

“Customers deserve to get their money back if they are owed. Full stop,” she said.

The ombuds scheme will have an external dispute resolution service, and direct airlines and airports to provide remedies to consumers. It will provide reports on conduct, and refer instances of misconduct for investigation.

Barriers presently faced by people with a disability include unreasonable wait times for checking in, refusals to carry assistance animals, and limits on wheelchair and other access.

The government will create specific disability standards for the industry and review compliance with them.

It will improve remedies for damage to wheelchairs and other equipment, and require airport development plans to set out how they will enable access for people with a disability.

“Through our consultations we have heard clearly that the treatment of people with disability by the airlines and airports is not good enough,” King said.

“People have been left stranded on planes, forced to return to their departure port or had to put up with poor treatment due to a lack of access to appropriate facilities at their destination.”

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Airline ‘customer rights charter’ to specify when cash refunds required – https://theconversation.com/airline-customer-rights-charter-to-specify-when-cash-refunds-required-237447

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.8–44.8. In my previous US politics article last Monday, Harris led Trump by 47.1–44.6.

Joe Biden’s final position before his withdrawal as Democratic candidate on July 21 was a national poll deficit against Trump of 45.2–41.2. By the election, Biden will be almost 82, Trump is now 78 and Harris will be 60.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr withdrew from the presidential contest in swing states on Friday US time and endorsed Trump. Silver said Kennedy initially had 10–11% support in a three-way matchup with Trump and Biden, but this had faded to about 8% at Biden’s withdrawal.

When Harris replaced Biden, this reduced the number of voters who disliked both major party candidates, and Kennedy fell to about 4%.

Kennedy’s withdrawal will probably assist Trump a little, as Kennedy’s ideological positions were closer to Trump’s, and Kennedy endorsed Trump. But Kennedy only had 4% before his withdrawal, so there won’t be a large impact. There have not yet been polls conducted since Kennedy’s withdrawal or the Democratic National Convention, which ran from Monday to Thursday this week.

The US president isn’t elected by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives electoral votes equal to its federal House seats (population based) and senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes as winner takes all, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).

Silver’s numbers have been adjusted for Kennedy’s withdrawal. They reflect polls conducted during the convention that gave Harris a boost before her address on Thursday. As Silver’s model was factoring in a convention bounce, Harris’ win probability is little changed at 53.2% (53.5% last Monday).

Convention bounces usually peak in the week following a convention, then fade slowly. Polls conducted in the next week will show the impact of the Democratic convention and Kennedy’s withdrawal.

I wrote last Monday that if Harris leads by four to five points nationally after the convention, her win probability in Silver’s model will not change much. If she leads by six points, her win probability will increase, and if she only leads by two points her win probability will decrease.

Labor thumped at NT election

At Saturday’s Northern Territory election, the ABC is giving the Country Liberal Party (CLP) 15 of the 25 seats, Labor four, independents two and there are four seats still undecided. Labor had governed in the NT since winning the 2016 election. In 2020, Labor won 14 of the 25 seats, the CLP eight, independents two and the Territory Alliance one.

NT-wide primary votes were 47.8% CLP (up 16.5% since the 2020 election), 29.5% Labor (down 10.0%), 8.3% Greens (up 4.0%) and 14.4% independents (up 3.7%). The Territory Alliance, which won 12.9% in 2020, did not contest this election. The ABC’s two-party preferred estimate is a CLP win by 57.1–42.9 over Labor, a 10.1% swing to the CLP since 2020.

Postal votes have not yet been counted, and these are likely to assist the CLP. In the four seats in doubt, the CLP is ahead and likely to win Casuarina. The electoral commission probably selected the wrong final two candidates in Fannie Bay and Johnston, and now needs to redo the preference count.

The Greens are likely to win Fannie Bay and an independent Johnston. If the Greens win Fannie Bay, it will be their first ever seat in the NT parliament.

In Nightcliff, we can’t yet determine whether the CLP or the Greens will make the final two. Labor easily beats the CLP, but we don’t know the outcome if the Greens are their final opponent, but Labor should win.

If the seats in doubt go as expected, the final outcome will be 16 CLP out of 25, five Labor, three independents and one Green. The Poll Bludger said the anti-Labor swings were particularly savage in northern Darwin, while Labor held up much better in the rural and Indigenous-heavy seats. Four of Labor’s five likely survivors are of Indigenous background.

In 2022 Labor defeated the federal Coalition government and in 2023 they defeated the NSW Coalition government. I believe this is the first defeat of a Labor government in Australia since Labor lost the 2018 South Australian election. The Queensland Labor government appears doomed at an election in October.

Federal polls: Freshwater steady at 51–49 to Coalition

A national Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted August 16–18 from a sample of 1,061, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, unchanged from the July Freshwater poll. Primary votes were 41% Coalition (up one), 32% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (down one) and 15% for all Others.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval was up four points to -10, with 45% unfavourable and 35% favourable. Peter Dutton’s net approval was steady at -3. Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 45–41 (45–39 in July).

In better news for Labor, the Coalition’s lead over Labor on the cost of living was reduced from 12 points in July to seven, and their lead on managing the economy was reduced from 16 points to 13. The cost of living was rated one of the most important issues by 76%, far ahead of housing on 38%.

Morgan poll: 50.5–49.5 to Labor

A national Morgan poll, conducted August 12–18 from a sample of 1,698, gave Labor a 50.5–49.5 lead, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the August 5–11 poll.

Primary votes were 38.5% Coalition (up 0.5), 30.5% Labor (up one), 13.5% Greens (down 0.5), 4% One Nation (down one), 8.5% independents (down one) and 5% others (up one).

The headline figure is based on respondent preferences. If 2022 election preference flows are used, Labor leads by an unchanged 51–49.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Harris gains in US polls during Democratic convention; Labor thumped in NT election – https://theconversation.com/harris-gains-in-us-polls-during-democratic-convention-labor-thumped-in-nt-election-237033

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rolf Gerritsen, Adjunct Professor, The Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University

The Northern Territory is a different place. On the day prior to this election, Speckles the Adelaide River crocodile was asked to predict the result of the election. He had replaced the previous crocodile, a spiv who got the 2016 and 2020 elections wrong.

Speckles decided Eva Lawler, the Labor Chief Minister, would win the election. Speckles was not the only prognosticator to get it wrong. I fear for his future.

The Country Liberal Party (CLP) has won majority government, returning to power after eight years in opposition. Double-digit swings against Labor have been recorded in some electorates. Lawler lost government and her own seat.

Instead, CLP Leader Lia Finocchiaro will become the Territory’s next Chief Minister and govern in majority.

A tale of two elections

Yesterday, effectively, there were two elections conducted for the NT Legislative Assembly. The first was in the bush electorates.

These are dominated by Aboriginal communities, often blighted by poverty, poor housing, inadequate medical services, failing educational services and the absence of employment opportunities: all the elements the Closing the Gap targets seek to address.

As is customary in Territory elections, these Indigenous communities voted Labor. Only once since self government in 1978 (in 2012) have they not done so.

However, Indigenous issues were hardly mentioned by politicians or the media in this election campaign.

Read more:
NT election: promises for Indigenous people buckle under history’s weight

This election was essentially an urban election played out mainly in Darwin-Palmerston and, to an extent, Alice Springs. It only paid some attention to Indigenous issues as a covert subtext to the broader community angst about crime.

Twice the expected swing

I predicted the CLP would get uneven swings, bigger in some instances (like in electorates that had suburbs where there were high levels of property crime, violence and public drunkenness).

Overall, I assumed the CLP Opposition would get a Territory-wide swing of about 4%–6%. I was wrong.

The overall swing to the CLP in the suburbs of Darwin was over twice that estimate. Several ministers, including Lawler, have lost their seats.

Lawler conceded defeat at 8:30pm, a full hour before losers in NT elections usually do so. That indicated the extent of the loss for Labor.

Counting will resume today but, on the trends, I expect at least four (possibly six) Labor Ministers will lose their seats.

As I predicted, independents have been elected in two seats: Yingiya Mark Guyula in Mulka (in northeast Arnhem Land) and Robyn Lambley in Araluen (in Alice Springs).

Other independents have done well, as in Johnston where a Teal-like (she actually wore purple) independent out-polled the Labor incumbent (although still behind the CLP).

Labor’s vote collapse

My interpretation of the collapse of the Labor vote is that it involves two elements.

One is the defection of weakly-aligned voters. These voters usually make up the swing in an election.

The other is that a fair proportion of Labor voters switched to the Greens. I have lauded Chief Minister Lawler for her tough campaign, but it’s possible some Labor voters were alienated by her right-ish switch and decided to vote Green, to remind Labor that it is supposed to be a progressive party.

However you interpret this election, it is definitely a landslide to the CLP. Comparatively, it’s not as bad for Labor as the anti-CLP landslide in 2016. Back then, Finocchiaro was the only CLP member reelected in the Greater Darwin area.

That 2016 election was consequential. Because Finocchiaro was the only CLP parliamentarian left in the Greater Darwin area, she eventually became CLP leader. The twists of fate mean that she is now Chief Minister.

The most interesting new development of this election was the rise of the Greens. They will feel greatly buoyed by this election, where in some seats they finally broke the 20% primary vote barrier to become serious players in Territory politics.

In my pre-poll analysis, I said this would be a good election to win because the NT economy will pick up next year.

In addition, Commonwealth expenditure in the NT is set to dramatically escalate. The billions of dollars worth of spending as part of remote housing and education deals struck with the Commonwealth, plus other large-scale spending programs, will start to come into play.

The Commonwealth is becoming invested in reversing Indigenous disadvantage in the Territory because the NT is the worst performer on the Closing The Gap targets.

This means continuing money for the NT and all but ensures the new CLP government will be re-elected in 2028.

Rolf Gerritsen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. NT election: the Country Liberals claim a landslide victory in a contest decided in suburbia – https://theconversation.com/nt-election-the-country-liberals-claim-a-landslide-victory-in-a-contest-decided-in-suburbia-235648