Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.9–46.0. In my previous US politics article on September 9, Harris led Trump by 48.7–46.2.

Joe Biden’s final position before his withdrawal as Democratic candidate on July 21 was a national poll deficit against Trump of 45.2–41.2. By the election, Biden will be almost 82, Trump is now 78 and Harris will be 60.

Harris has been boosted by her performance in the September 10 debate between Harris and Trump, and she needed this boost after her national lead dropped below two points in Silver’s aggregate before there were many post-debate polls. In a YouGov poll for Yahoo news that was taken in the three days after the debate, respondents thought Harris won the debate by 56–26 over Trump.

Harris may have been further boosted by Trump continuing after the debate with the baseless claims about Haitian immigrants eating pets. We don’t yet have any polls conducted since Sunday’s second assassination attempt against Trump, and this may interrupt Harris’ debate bounce.

Before the debate, Harris was dropping slowly from a four-point lead in national polls on August 25 to two points at the debate. It’s unlikely there will be another presidential debate, and Harris’ debate bounce could fade.

Harris’ Electoral College problem

The US president isn’t elected by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives electoral votes equal to its federal House seats (population based) and senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes as winner takes all, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).

Relative to the national popular vote, the Electoral College is biased to Trump. According to Silver’s model, Harris needs at least a two-point popular vote win to be the Electoral College favourite. She needs at least a four-point popular vote win to be a 94% favourite in the Electoral College.

Harris’ Electoral College win probability in Silver’s model has improved from a low of 35% on September 9 to 43.5% today, but Trump is still the favourite with a 56% win probability. The projection of the popular vote is a Harris win by 50.3–48.5, and this 1.8-point margin is lower than Harris’ 2.9-point margin in current polls, implying some debate bounce adjustment.

Harris has a 67% chance to win the national popular vote, but there’s a 24% chance in Silver’s model that she wins the popular vote, but loses the Electoral College.

There have not yet been many state polls conducted since the debate, and we will need to wait for them to know more. Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes, remains the most important state for either Harris or Trump to win. If either wins Pennsylvania, their chance to win is over 90%. The polling average in Pennsylvania gives Harris a 0.5-point lead.

The FiveThirtyEight forecast model is far more favourable to Harris than Silver’s model, with Harris now at a 61% Electoral College win probability in this model. This appears to be because its popular vote projection is at Harris by 4.2 points, implying that she will slightly expand her current lead, not have it reduced.

US economic data

In August US headline inflation rose 0.2%, the same increase as in July. In the last 12 months, it has risen 2.5%, the smallest 12-month increase since 2021. Core inflation rose 0.3% in August, the highest monthly core increase since April; it has risen 3.2% in the last 12 months.

In August, real (inflation-adjusted) hourly earnings were up 0.2% and real weekly earnings up 0.5% owing to an increase in hours worked. In the last 12 months, real hourly earnings were up 1.3% and real weekly earnings up 0.9%.

In August, the unemployment rate was down 0.1% from July to 4.2%. The July unemployment rate of 4.3% was the highest since October 2021, when the US was recovering from the COVID recession. In July, the personal savings rate was down 0.2% from June to 2.9%, its lowest since June 2022.

Silver’s economic index that calculates the average of six indicators is at +0.06, suggesting an economy just above average. Silver wrote last Friday that the Electoral College and the economy are two key reasons to favour Trump in the election.

Australian state polls: WA and Victoria

The Western Australian state election will be held in March 2025. The Poll Bludger reported on September 11 that a Freshwater poll for The West Australian gave Labor a 55–45 lead, from primary votes of 39% Labor, 38% Liberals and Nationals, 11% Greens and 12% for all Others. This poll agrees with a Wolf + Smith WA poll that also gave Labor a 55–45 lead. The sample size was 1,045.

Labor Premier Roger Cook had a +7 net approval, while Liberal leader Libby Mettam had a +4 net approval. Former premier Mark McGowan was at +41. Cook had a 46–34 preferred premier lead over Mettam.

A Victorian Resolve poll for The Age, conducted with the August and September federal Resolve polls from a sample of over 1,000, gave the Coalition 37% of the primary vote (steady since July), Labor 27% (steady), the Greens 14% (down one), independents 15% (steady) and others 7% (up one).

Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-party figure, but The Poll Bludger estimated “a roughly even split”. Labor’s Jacinta Allan led the Liberals’ John Pesutto by just 30–29 as preferred premier (31–28 previously).

By 43–27, voters supported building the Suburban Rail Loop (SRL). But given a choice between the SRL and a rail link connecting the airport and city, 53% chose the airport rail link and just 16% the SRL.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Harris gains in post-debate US national polls, but will her gains be sustained? – https://theconversation.com/harris-gains-in-post-debate-us-national-polls-but-will-her-gains-be-sustained-239059

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Corey J. A. Bradshaw, Matthew Flinders Professor of Global Ecology and Node Leader in the ARC Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, Flinders University

Imagine growing up beside the eastern Mediterranean Sea 14,000 years ago. You’re an accomplished sailor of the small watercraft you and your fellow villagers make, and you live off both the sea and the land.

But times have been difficult — there just isn’t the same amount of game or fish around as when you were a child. Maybe it’s time to look elsewhere for food.

Now imagine going farther than ever before in your little boat, accompanied maybe by a few others, when suddenly you spot something on the horizon. Is that an island?

An island of tiny elephants and hippos

Welcome to Cyprus as the world emerges from the last ice age. You are the first human to set your eyes on this huge, heavily forested island teeming with food.

When you beach your boat to have a look around, you can’t believe what you’re seeing — tiny boar-sized hippos and horse-sized elephants that look like babies to your eyes. There are so many of them, and you’re hungry after the long journey.

The diminutive beasts don’t seem to show any fear. You easily kill a few and preserve the meat as best you can for the long journey back.

When you get home, you are excited to let everyone in the village know what you’ve found. Soon enough, you organise a major expedition back to the island.

Of course, we’ll never know if this kind of scenario took place, but it’s a plausible story of how and when the first humans managed to get to Cyprus. It also illustrates how they might have quickly brought about the demise of the tiny hippopotamus Phanourios minor, as well as the dwarf elephant Palaeoloxodon cypriotes.

Dwarf ‘giants’

Cyprus wasn’t the only Mediterranean island with dwarf wildlife. In fact, Crete, Malta, Sicily, Sardinia and many other islands had their own dwarf elephants and hippos.

Island dwarfism — the process in which a once large, mainland species evolves to become smaller in response to fewer resources and predators — is in fact quite common. Unfortunately, the process also makes such species more vulnerable to rapid environmental change, including the arrival of new predators such as humans.

The Cypriot dwarf hippopotamus was the smallest dwarf hippo in the Mediterranean region. Genetic data suggest it diverged from the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius) roughly 1.5 million years ago.

The Cypriot dwarf elephant was less than 10% of the size of its mainland ancestor, the straight-tusked elephant (Palaeoloxodon antiquus) that inhabited Europe and Western Asia during the Middle and Late Pleistocene.

An extinction controversy

For a long time, many archaeologists and palaeontologists didn’t believe humans had anything to do with the extinction of these two “megafauna” species on Cyprus.

The doubters assumed that either people arrived well after the extinctions, or the earliest humans were too few to be able to kill off entire species.

Earlier this year we showed that people came to Cyprus between 14,000 and 13,000 years ago, well before hippos and elephants went extinct. We also showed that the human population likely grew to several thousand within a few hundred years of arrival. But we didn’t know whether this human population was large enough to drive the dwarf hippos and elephants to extinction.

Our new research published today answers this question with a combination of several different types of mathematical models.

Read more:
Humans are not off the hook for extinctions of large herbivores – then or now

Could a small human population cause extinction?

Even though these animals are long extinct, we can draw some conclusions about their likely population because we can estimate their weights from palaeontological information. The dwarf hippo weighed around 130kg, and the dwarf elephant came in at just over 500kg.

We also know how to translate weights to estimates of population size, longevity, survival and fertility. We can even use data collected from related species still living today, such as the pygmy hippo and the African elephant, to estimate how fast they would have grown.

With this information, we built computer models of what would have happened to the two mini-megafauna species on Cyprus when human hunters arrived. We estimated how efficient human hunters would be, how long it would take them to process each carcass, and how much energy hunter-gatherers need to survive.

We also estimated how much of the human diet included these species, and how this proportion might have changed as the dwarf hippo and elephant numbers dwindled.

We found that even a small human population, numbering between 3,000 and 7,000, could have easily driven first dwarf hippos, and then dwarf elephants, to extinction. Our model showed the process would have taken less than 1,000 years. This prediction matches the sequence of extinction inferred from the palaeontological record.

Our results provide strong evidence that palaeolithic peoples in Cyprus were at least partially, if not entirely, responsible for megafauna extinctions during the Late Pleistocene and early Holocene.

Cyprus was the perfect place to test our models because the island offers an ideal set of conditions to examine whether the arrival of humans ultimately led to the extinction of its megafauna. This is because Cyprus was a relatively simple test case – a small island of around 11,000 square kilometres at the time, with only two species of megafauna.

Our research therefore improves our understanding of how even small human populations can disrupt ecosystems and cause major extinctions, particularly in times of rapid environmental change.

Read more:
How the extinction of ice age mammals may have forced us to invent civilisation

Corey J. A. Bradshaw receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Christian Reepmeyer receives funding from the Australan Research Council and the German Foreign Office.

Theodora Moutsiou receives funding from the European Regional Development Fund and the Republic of Cyprus through the Research and Innovation Foundation (EXCELLENCE/0421/0050) for the project Modelling Demography and Adaptation in the Initial Peopling of the Eastern Mediterranean Islandscape (MIGRATE, 2022–2024).

– ref. Small populations of Stone Age people drove dwarf hippos and elephants to extinction on Cyprus – https://theconversation.com/small-populations-of-stone-age-people-drove-dwarf-hippos-and-elephants-to-extinction-on-cyprus-238999

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy Welch, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

As the government’s plan to increase speed limits begins to roll out, a group of local and international road safety and health experts has warned the move will lead to more death and injury, and disputed claims higher speed limits will bring economic gains.

The group’s open letter echoes concerns raised since the policy was announced – that roads will become less predictable to use, less efficient and significantly more dangerous, particularly for children and other vulnerable people.

Evidence suggests the changes are also unlikely to improve commutes or boost economic growth and productivity, as Transport Minister Simeon Brown has argued.

Nor will raising some open road limits from 100 kilometres per hour to 110km per hour, and increasing urban speed limits, magically clear congestion. It will simply change the number on the sign while cars continue to inch forward in traffic.

On less congested roads, higher speed limits can make commutes less predictable by increasing the likelihood of sudden braking, risky lane changes and other hazardous manoeuvres, while also reducing reaction times.

As speeds increase, the probability of crashes also rises sharply. Research shows even a 5km per hour increase in speed can double the risk of a fatal crash in urban areas. Traffic crashes carry an enormous financial burden, with a social cost of nearly NZ$12 billion in 2022 alone, and almost $225 billion since 2001.

Studies of New Zealand roads have shown increasing speeds leads to disproportionate increases in fuel consumption. For example, on long routes, reducing maximum speeds from 100km per hour to 80km per hour reduced fuel consumption by about 15% – much higher savings than the corresponding reduction in travel time.

Higher speeds often result in increased costs rather than improved efficiency. Overall, as the expert group has argued, the rationale for increasing speed limits goes against the evidence.

Children at risk

Proponents argue even marginal time savings for some drivers justify the changes. But at what cost? Those small time gains for a few come at the expense of safety for many, particularly children.

Take Auckland’s Tyndale Park Christian School and Te Uho o te Nikau Primary School, for example. Both are near a single intersection in Flat Bush and are a microcosm of the wider negative impacts of higher speed limits.

The limit on Murphy’s Road in front of Tyndale Park will jump from 60 to 80km per hour, while Flat Bush Road outside Te Uho o te Nikau will see limits rise from 30 to 50km per hour.

Since 2020, Murphy’s Road and Flat Bush Road have had more lanes added, making both roads twice as wide. Faster speeds will make it more difficult and potentially dangerous for children to cross.

Car crashes are the leading cause of accidental death of New Zealand children, and the country already ranks among the worst in the developed world for fatal crashes involving children.

Children aged four and under are most at risk of being struck by a vehicle. While many child passengers killed in crashes weren’t properly restrained, higher speeds only add more risk.

The government argues variable speed limits around schools during pick-up and drop-off times will mitigate those risks. But this fails to address the fundamental issue: roads must be safe for all users at all times.

A child doesn’t stop being vulnerable outside school hours, and the danger posed by higher speeds is constant. These streets are where children play, visit friends and head to sports.

Cities elsewhere are slowing down

Overseas experience and evidence shows how safer speeds can save both lives and money.

In 2019, Oslo in Norway achieved zero pedestrian or cyclist deaths thanks to its Vision Zero policy, which prioritises safety over speed. Helsinki in Finland saw similar success, with only three traffic deaths that year.

Closer to home, Hobart recently lowered speed limits in its central areas to 40km per hour, aligning with global trends to improve road safety. Specific results are still pending, but evidence from Edinburgh in Scotland shows lowering speed limits to 20 miles per hour (32km per hour) across most of the city in 2018, particularly near schools, has far exceeded expectations.

Three years later, traffic casualties had fallen by 20% and collisions were reduced by 22%. These statistics represent lives saved and injuries prevented, outstripping what experts predicted from speed changes alone.

A Vision Zero strategy in the US city of Portland – very similar to Auckland in size and urban planning challenges – targets the elimination of traffic deaths and severe injuries, and is already showing promise.

Recent research by the World Bank has also debunked the idea higher speeds drive economic growth. On the contrary, it shows slower speeds reduce the massive costs of road crashes – not just obvious ones like ambulance rides and hospital bills, but hidden ones such as rising insurance premiums and productivity losses.

Ultimately, when we slow down, our streets become more than just roads. They transform into places people want to walk, bike and spend time, all of which boosts the local economy. Cities around the world are figuring this out – New Zealand should also prioritise safety and livability over the false promises of speed.

Timothy Welch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Faster is not always better: why the case for higher speed limits is fatally flawed – https://theconversation.com/faster-is-not-always-better-why-the-case-for-higher-speed-limits-is-fatally-flawed-239181

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Carol Ronken, Industry Fellow in the Centre of Justice, Queensland University of Technology

Warning: This article discusses details of child sexual abuse

On one hand I would struggle to know that my abuse material was out there being circulated to even the well meaning authorities. But on the other hand the use of it could help sooo many other children.

These are the words of a victim-survivor of child sexual abuse. They reflect a profound tension regarding the use of photos or videos depicting child sexual abuse for legitimate purposes.

This material is used by police investigating sexual exploitation, and by courts to prosecute cases. It is also used by the technology industry and researchers to understand and fight its production and distribution.

But there is a substantial gap in research exploring victim-survivors’ views on this practice. This is a serious problem.

My colleagues and I have been working hard to fill this gap by interviewing victim-survivors to find out what they think. Our early findings show they have several concerns about the use of child sexual abuse material for legitimate purposes.

A lived-experience evidence base is needed

Victim-survivors of child sexual abuse are increasingly speaking out on the long-lasting damage and impact of having their images and videos circulated on the internet. The lack of control over the existence of the material and its circulation can impact the recovery of victim-survivors.

Collecting evidence about the views of victim-survivors is an important first step towards making better rules to govern how child sexual abuse material can be used to fight crime. It ensures victim-survivor views inform processes that support institutional uses of abuse material.

Listening to victim-survivors is also an important acknowledgement of their experiences. And it provides them with a level of ownership and control of the material that captures their abuse.

To help build this evidence base, we surveyed 80 child sexual abuse victim-survivors. We wanted to know what they thought about the tech industry, police and researchers using child sexual abuse material for legitimate purposes.

Mixed views

One theme in the survey responses is the need for greater awareness about the retention and use of child sexual abuse material by police, tech companies and researchers.

Only 60% of respondents whose abuse was recorded were aware that material was retained by police. Only 45% and 35%, respectively, were aware that tech companies and researchers also used this material in their work.

Some 90% wanted to be informed of how material would be used. The same amount wanted the opportunity to decide how the material would be used, if at all.

As one survey respondent told us:

Victims of child sex abuse material have already had their agency and rights stripped [from] them in this way, should every step not be taken to ensure consent is gathered BEFORE using the materials?

We found 70% of victim-survivors would be comfortable with police, courts, researchers or private sector organisations retaining material documenting or depicting their abuse if it was used in the investigation or prosecution of the perpetrator(s) of their abuse.

The same proportion were also supportive of material depicting their abuse being used to help investigate or prosecute sexual crimes against other children.

If given the choice, three-quarters of victim-survivors would want all material documenting or depicting their abuse to be destroyed. However, given that complete destruction may be impossible, 80% stated they would agree with material documenting their abuse being used in technology that helps to detect and remove copies of content depicting their abuse that have been posted online.

A majority of respondents (70%) whose abuse had been recorded stated they would be supportive of police, courts, researchers or organisations that develop technology to fight this type of crime using the photos and videos of their abuse.

Key lessons

Many victim-survivors described their concerns with the retention of material depicting their abuse.

I also feel like once again my soul and my childhood is being held at ransom in order to create good in the world. If only our abuse could end at its end, but instead its legacy is needed to achieve more.

By listening to these concerns, the tech industry, police and researchers will be better able use child sexual abuse material to fight crime without retraumatising victim-survivors.

We gratefully acknowledge the bravery of our research participants and thank them for their generosity of time, willingness to share their perspectives, and desire to effect change together. We are extremely appreciative of all victims and survivors who participated in this research and acknowledge the difficulties in providing insights into concepts that were sometimes unfamiliar, uncomfortable, or unclear.

If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.

The National Sexual Assault, Family and Domestic Violence Counselling Line – 1800 RESPECT (1800 737 732) – is available 24 hours a day, seven days a week for any Australian who has experienced, or is at risk of, family and domestic violence and/or sexual assault.

13YARN is a free and confidential 24/7 national crisis support line for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people who are feeling overwhelmed or having difficulty coping. Call 13 92 76.

This research is funded by the National Centre for Action on Child Sexual Abuse and being conducted through the AI for Law Enforcement and Community Safety lab at Monash University and the Bravehearts Foundation.

– ref. ‘Held at ransom’: victim-survivors open up about the use of child sex abuse material to fight crime – https://theconversation.com/held-at-ransom-victim-survivors-open-up-about-the-use-of-child-sex-abuse-material-to-fight-crime-237659

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Partington, Research Fellow (Health Economics), Flinders University

Australia is facing a surge in hospital presentations in older adults. Between 2015–16 and 2019–20, hospitalisations among people aged 75–84 increased by an average of 3% annually, the largest rise of any age group.

This growing demand places significant pressure on the health-care system, contributing to poor patient flow, extended stays in emergency departments (EDs), and even ambulance ramping. This is when paramedics are made to wait at the hospital’s entrance and can’t transfer their patient into the ED within an appropriate time frame.

In response, some health system leaders recently called for the creation of standalone geriatric hospitals to specifically cater to the needs of older patients.

But is this a good idea? While there may be some benefits, the call for specialised geriatric hospitals signals Australia’s failure to provide adequate aged care.

Geriatric care in Australia

Across Australia, geriatric care is often delivered in hospitals as a sub-acute admission, in specialised wards, units and clinics, following the acute care part of a hospital stay.

One pathway is geriatric evaluation and management services, which target the functioning of patients with age-related medical conditions, such as frailty and cognitive decline, after a surgery or other medical episode.

In most states, geriatric evaluation and management services can also be delivered in the home.

Looking at data from public hospitals around the country, we can see the level of services vary from state to state. We calculate that in 2020–21, geriatric evaluation and management services involving at least one overnight stay represented 45% of admitted sub-acute care in Victoria and 20% in South Australia, but only around 8% in the Australian Capital Territory and New South Wales.

These sorts of hospital-based services take a holistic view to assess multiple aspects of an older person’s health, such as mobility, mental status, medication management, nutrition and social support, to tailor individualised care plans that help older people to live at home for longer, with a greater quality of life.

On the flip side, lack of access to community-based aged care – such as home care packages – is often thought to drive the need for specialised geriatric care in hospitals and longer hospital stays.

We know the current waiting time for a level 4 package (the highest level) is nine to 12 months, though the government has pledged to reduce this with new aged care reforms.

Without adequate support at home, older adults often end up in hospital where they can sometimes spend weeks or months awaiting a transfer to aged care.

Pros and cons of geriatric hospitals

A specialised geriatric hospital could be designed around the needs of older patients. This might include specialised medical and support services, but also a tailored physical environment, such as clear signage and quiet spaces.

It’s important to think about who would staff these standalone geriatric hospitals. Geriatric patients would still need specialists other than geriatricians, so this would necessitate cardiologists with a specialisation in geriatric cardiology, for example. Alternatively, separating care in this way could mean geriatric patients receive lower quality cardiology care (and that of other specialties).

Would additional capacity in a standalone hospital help with health system pressures? The simple answer is yes, but, as with adding any new capacity into the hospital system, if it unlocks unmet demand and attracts even more patients into hospitals from the community and aged care, then it would be unlikely to help with ED congestion.

It’s also worth considering whether a standalone hospital would include its own geriatric ED. It’s unlikely an ED in this context would achieve the patient volumes EDs require to maintain quality and efficiency. But without one, transfers from existing EDs would further stretch scarce ambulance resources.

So, would a standalone geriatric hospital be more cost-effective than spending the same budget required to build it, in other ways? By focusing on specific populations for whom the impact would be greatest, we could make the business case stack up.

Dementia care: a potential focus for specialised hospitals

Psychogeriatric care – the mental health care of older people – is a prime example of where federal funding gaps fail patients. This is especially the case for people with behavioural and psychological symptoms of dementia.

Families are not well supported in the community to manage the huge care burden, and community care is not tailored to provide appropriate support for these people. Consequently, patients end up stuck in the social safety net that is a public hospital bed.

These beds often provide non-specialised care for dementia patients. Unfamiliar and overstimulating environments, coupled with staff who may misinterpret these patients’ behaviours, only worsens challenging behaviour. This in turn makes it harder for aged care providers to accept the person.

Currently in SA, there are anecdotally 50 to 70 patients with symptoms suggestive of dementia stuck in hospital, with no pressing medical reason to be there, waiting for somewhere they can be safely discharged, such as aged care. Our experience is that, on average, the length of stay for these patients is 50 to 60 days and contributes to bottlenecks within the ED. These numbers will only grow as the population ages.

A standalone dementia hospital could bring the states and Commonwealth together on care for people with behavioural and psychological symptoms of dementia. It cannot replace residential aged care, but could help with the transition by improving the hospital experience for people with specific age-related needs.

However, it would be essential to retain existing multidisciplinary approaches, such as geriatric evaluation and management services, to avoid isolating or segregating care for those who are already vulnerable.

Improving existing hospitals for older people

While the call for standalone geriatric hospitals may have some merit, ultimately it signals Australia’s failure to provide adequate and integrated hospital and aged care.

The Commonwealth government recently announced significant changes to aged care funding and new supports for home-based care. Existing hospital services would certainly function better with more options for patients to be referred onto once their hospital stay is due to finish.

The forthcoming Commonwealth Aged Care Act is expected to reform many aspects of the care of older Australians. But without further detail and cooperation between the federal government and states and territories, integrated service planning is impossible.

In the meantime, existing hospitals could begin to recast themselves as places better suited to the needs of older people.

Andrew Partington does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article. He has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Craig Whitehead receives funding from the the NHMRC and MRFF. He is also a board director for Helping Hand aged care.

Jonathan Karnon receives funding from the NHMRC and MRFF.

– ref. Could geriatric hospitals reduce pressure on the health system? Maybe – but improving aged care is paramount – https://theconversation.com/could-geriatric-hospitals-reduce-pressure-on-the-health-system-maybe-but-improving-aged-care-is-paramount-238226

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Monica Fahey, Adjunct Fellow in molecular ecology, Macquarie University

For millennia, Indigenous knowledge holders have passed down lore to the next generation. Much lore describes the relationships between people and Country, including custodial responsibilities to care for other species as kin.

Each species carries a history of movement and change in its DNA. By quantifying how related one individual of a species is to another, evolutionary ecologists can infer how a species migrated in the deep past.

When we combine both types of knowledge – lore and genetics – we can make new discoveries. Our recent body of research uses genomic techniques and interviews with First Nations knowledge holders to investigate whether First Nations Peoples moved two culturally important food sources, bunya pines and black bean trees.

Bunya pines

The bunya pine (Araucaria bidwillii) is an ancient native conifer of cultural and spiritual significance to several language groups in eastern Australia. It’s known as bonyi bonyi in Wakka Wakka and bunyi in Kabi Kabi.

For thousands of years, Indigenous groups gathered to share the edible nuts at bunya gatherings at locations such as Wakka Wakka Country in the Western Downs and Kabi Kabi Country in the Sunshine Coast hinterland. The last major known gathering took place in 1902, but they have restarted in recent years.

Bunya pines grow throughout Queensland’s southeast. They’re also found 1,400 km north, in the Wet Tropics near Cairns. In a recent study, co-author Patrick Cooke interviewed First Nations groups in both locations in southeast Queensland and the Wet Tropics to record Indigenous biocultural knowledge on the use of bunya.

In a companion study, Traditional Owners and this article’s lead author collected DNA samples from bunya pine leaves to retrace the conifer’s historical movement in its northern and southern locations. Genetic results were interpreted in the context of biocultural knowledge and archival evidence.

What did we find? In the Wet Tropics, we could not find traditional names or biocultural knowledge for bunya. DNA samples showed no evidence of its dispersal by people or animals. This suggests the species was not an important food source for First Nations groups in the region. In the absence of human-assisted dispersal, the remnant stands of bunya have become genetically isolated.

By contrast, groups in southeast Queensland had rich biocultural knowledge of bunya. DNA samples showed clear evidence of movement, consistent with people actively moving the species around. But when we analysed bunya patches pre-dating European colonisation, we found genetic patterns suggesting planting was sporadic and fairly localised.

Our Indigenous knowledge interviews and historical literature give crucial context. Knowledge holders told us only those with custodial rights to bunya were permitted to collect and share the edible cones, which likely restricted the movement of bunya out of existing Country.

This changed when First Nations people were displaced by European settlers. Wakka Wakka people planted bunya at Cherbourg mission in southeastern Queensland and Mulli Mulli mission on Githabul Country in northern New South Wales to maintain cultural connections.

Black bean trees

Like bunya pines, black bean trees (Castanospermum australe) have been an important food source for thousands of years. While the large seeds are toxic, they can be made edible.

Here, we have found evidence this rainforest species was spread on purpose – and rapidly.

The tree does not need to have its toxic seeds eaten. Instead, it relies on its seed pods floating down rivers to new locations. Curiously, the tree can be found far from any waterways. How did it get there?

We found evidence Bundjalung groups spread black bean thousands of years ago, as they walked the ridgelines of the Nightcap, Border and McPherson ranges in northern New South Wales. This route follows the Nguthungulli Songline, a cultural pathway tracing the journeys of an ancestral spirit (likely to represent a real person) who left “bean tree” seeds as he journeyed inland from the east coast.

Samples taken adjacent to the Nguthungulli Songline showed higher levels of genetic diversity compared to other sample sites. This is what we would expect to see if seeds from different areas had been deliberately walked uphill along the songline and subsequently spread downstream through the waterways.

Ongoing genetic analyses suggest the black bean tree remained in small coastal pockets until Bundjalung groups walked its seeds northwards into southeast Queensland.

The Bundjalung story of Three Brothers tells of the arrival or return of key ancestors of Bundjalung peoples and related language groups Githabul and Yugambeh to coastal northern NSW. All three language groups use the name “bugam” for the black bean seed, which suggests a rapid transfer or shared ancestral connection to the species.

Walking plants

These stories raise interesting questions about why Indigenous groups carried and nurtured plants in some cases and not others.

In the Wet Tropics, for instance, the lack of evidence for movement of black bean and bunya could be linked to different dietary preferences and alternative edible nuts.

In northern NSW and southeast Queensland, bunya gatherings brought far-flung groups and kin together. We speculate these social and cultural reasons may have been seen as more important than simply increasing food production by planting the tree in new locations.

But the deliberate movement of black bean along the Nguthungulli Songline shows some groups took the tree with them to ensure access to its nuts.

Read more:
Iconic boab trees trace journeys of ancient Aboriginal people

Domestication over deeper time

For years, researchers thought domesticating a plant for human use was relatively straightforward. But newer research suggests it was a lengthier and more complex process than we thought.

Unpicking the deeper past using First Nations lore and genetic analysis is a promising combination to shed light on domestication. We hope it will become more widely used.

As we continue, we are likely to find examples of where Indigenous movement of plants worked to domesticate landscapes. That is, social and cultural preferences of ancestral groups drove ecological transformations which seem, at first glance, to be natural.

Read more:
Farmers or foragers? Pre-colonial Aboriginal food production was hardly that simple

Monica Fahey works for the Research Centre for Ecosystem Resilience, Botanic Gardens of Sydney. She received funding from the Australian Research Council. She is also affiliated with Macquarie University.

Emilie Ens receives funding from the Australian Research Council, The Nature Conservancy, NSW DCCEEW and the Origin Energy Foundation.

Oliver Costello is a Bundjalung Custodian and Executive Director at Jagun Alliance Aboriginal Corporation. He receives funding from The University of Melbourne; Bush Heritage Australia; the University of Queensland; the Ian Potter Foundation; the Hermon Slade Foundation; CSIRO; the Victorian Government Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP); Natural Resource Management (NRM) Regions Australia, The Nature Conservancy and The Australian Conservation Foundation.

Patrick Cooke is a Gangalidda Custodian and affiliated with Macquarie University.

Maurizio Rossetto does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Walking the trees: we traced how First Nations groups moved bunya pine and black bean trees – https://theconversation.com/walking-the-trees-we-traced-how-first-nations-groups-moved-bunya-pine-and-black-bean-trees-229914

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elizabeth Humphrys, Lecturer and Head of Discipline, Social and Political Sciences & Climate, Society and Environment Research Centre (C-SERC), University of Technology Sydney

Recent weeks have seen mobilisations of construction workers protesting the imposition of an administrator on their union by the government. Protesters were decked out in black and hi-vis workwear, with fluorescent orange and yellow as far as the eye could see.

On the same day as the biggest rallies, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese held a press conference on the construction site of the new Western Sydney airport wearing a dress shirt, hard hat and hi-vis.

While visiting an operational worksite generally requires wearing hi-vis for safety, there’s deeper politics at play, with politicians often choosing such sites – and, consequently, clothes – to signal something else.

Hi-vis can be worn by so many types of people: from protesters with diverse political views, to leaders in high office. So how did hi-vis become so deeply embedded in our culture, from protests to political press conferences, appearing in music videos, comedy and worn by GWS Giants supporters?

Context is everything

In Australia, hi-vis is legally required and standardised PPE (personal protective equipment) in many industries. Hi-vis garments often combine two types of light-reflection: fluorescent material for daytime use, and strips of silvery retro-reflective material for night use.

Beyond being required for safety, hi-vis carries other meanings, which intersect with class, gender, race and politics.

We’ve been researching these meanings, and we have found in Australia, hi-vis can symbolise safety, authority, working class masculinity, “being employed”, or the idea of the “average Australian”.

Hi-vis can enable official access, and it can stop others from entering particular spaces.

A design history of hi-vis

The history of hi-vis begins with early experiments with artificial fluorescent pigments in the 19th century, and the development of Day-Glo pigments from the 1930s. Fluorescence was used in World War II, for example in illuminating runways and marking dugouts, and the post-war period saw a commercial explosion of uses, particularly in the United States.

One of the first examples of high-visibility fluorescent workwear was in 1964 in Glasgow, when British Railways introduced an optional orange vest for track workers.

There was some resistance by the Glaswegian workers to its introduction, with fears it was “over-conspicuous” or might make workers appear less “brave”. By the 1970s there was begrudging acceptance from British Rail workers.

Australia was slightly slower in uptake. There’s further scope for research as to why, but heat and the unpleasant synthetic materials used in early vests is a good place to start.

At Sydney’s Powerhouse you can see an early hi-vis uniform, a postal delivery vest from around 1975, made from plastic webbing. Back then, soft synthetic fibres were not widespread and natural fibres did not hold fluorescent pigments well.

Following state-based changes to Australia’s work health and safety legislation in the 1980s, there was a gradual increase in fluoro vests on worksites, although there remained an awkwardness to their use, as archival photos suggest.

During the 1990s, Australian politicians visiting worksites continued to wear suits, sometimes a hard hat, with the vests only worn by trades and labouring workers.

This changed by the early 2000s, when politicians started to lean into wearing hi-vis.

Between the mid-1980s and early 2000s there was a gradual growth in hi-vis use, before it exploded in the first decade of the 21st century. Hi-vis shifted from an undesirable, rare and sometimes embarrassing safety measure, toward an everyday mass-produced “consumable” and major cultural symbol of our time.

Our research indicates four main reasons for this shift.

First, changes to work health and safety legislation and regulations meant employers had to take more responsibility for workers’ safety. Hi-vis was a quick way to (appear to) address this.

Next, mass textile manufacturing became increasingly available, delivered through global supply chains, making hi-vis more affordable and accessible.

Improvements in the longevity of colour-fast fluorescent pigments worked hand in hand with the fourth factor: the growing availability of lightweight synthetic fabric suitable for Australian heat.

By this century, hi-vis workwear was no longer just limited to wear on the construction site. Workers were just as likely to wear it off the job, and the number of industries it was seen in exploded.

Wearing hi-vis beyond safety

There are obvious safety reasons for the use of hi-vis in industries with dangerous equipment, in emergency services, for cyclists, and for delivery workers.

But how do we explain the security guard outside a pharmacy chain store, the cleaner at a swimming centre, the entrepreneur promoting their scented bathroom products on Instagram?

All of them wear hi-vis for reasons other than safety, at times deploying it as a symbol of “work” or productivity.

As for the CFMEU, more research is needed, but it is likely hi-vis helps produce and project a genuine sense of group membership and solidarity – as it does for GWS supporters.

And while many voters may remain unconvinced by politicians’ hi-vis-clad performances of productivity and “everyday” accessibility, press secretaries nonetheless continue to engineer situations in which hi-vis is worn. This indicates the deep political power of hi-vis, even on the backs of those with soft hands.

Elizabeth Humphrys is an Associate at Centre for Future Work, The Australia Institute.

Jesse Adams Stein receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Bettina Frankham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The deep political power of fluro: how hi-vis became a symbol of working class masculinity – https://theconversation.com/the-deep-political-power-of-fluro-how-hi-vis-became-a-symbol-of-working-class-masculinity-238584

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nathan Cooper, Associate Professor of Law, University of Waikato

The recent proposal by Vanuatu, Fiji and Samoa to recognise ecocide as a crime against humanity is timely and could provide a global framework of accountability for environmental damage.

Ecocide is defined as acts of “unlawful or wanton” environmental destruction, committed in the knowledge of their likely severe, widespread or long-term effects.

Last week, the Pacific Island nations formally requested an amendment to the principal treaty of the International Criminal Court (ICC) to add ecocide alongside genocide, war crimes and aggression to the international community’s list of most serious crimes.

There is a long way to go before ecocide is recognised by the ICC, if it ever happens. Discussions of the proposal will likely take several years and much will depend on the level of support the proposal gains from the 124 countries party to the ICC.

But for Aotearoa New Zealand, this is a chance to champion a progressive legal response and show leadership in the region.

A priority for the Pacific

It is no surprise the ecocide proposal is being driven by several small island developing states, given they are exposed to some of the most severe consequences of climate change.

In the Pacific, it is vitally important to equip the region with the necessary tools to mitigate and adapt to grave ecological change. This includes legal tools. An offence of ecocide could be used to significant effect, particularly if given an international dimension.

Alleged offenders are unlikely to live in the Pacific Islands. Domestic climate litigation in Pacific nations would have little impact. This is why the proposal for ecocide to be made an international crime is so critical.

Implications for New Zealand

New Zealand is a founding member of the Rome Statute, which established the ICC. It continues to advocate for the importance of the court’s role as a last resort to try the most serious crimes against humanity.

Few states will want to publicly oppose a proposal aimed at countering the most serious acts of ecological damage at a time of growing awareness of the state of nature.

For New Zealand’s government, early and vocal support for acknowledging the crime of ecocide would line up with public attitudes. Nearly two thirds of New Zealanders support more ambitious emissions targets in response to climate change, while more than 80% consider improving water quality as important.

For Māori in particular, climate and environment have always been important. While climate change affects everyone, Māori are disproportionately affected and particularly vulnerable.

Supporting this initiative, brought by Pacific neighbours, would also further cement Aotearoa’s reputation and role as a regional leader.

Arguing ecocide in New Zealand courts

Since it became operational in 2002, the jurisdiction of the ICC is limited by the principle of complementarity. In other words, the ICC exists to complement national judicial systems, not to replace them.

This means the ICC can only proceed with an investigation or case where a state party is unable or unwilling to do so. Legislation exists in New Zealand to ensure genocide, crimes against humanity and water crimes can be dealt with in domestic criminal law, with the consent of the Attorney-General.

However, it is important to note that crimes listed in the Rome Statute are not automatically incorporated into domestic law. For instance, the crime of aggression is not currently included in New Zealand criminal law.

In time, ecocide could find its way into domestic legislation. This could offer a more appropriate legal response to acts causing severe environmental damage than those currently available, for example in the Resource Management Act or as currently under consideration in tort law.

A recognition of ecocide could open the possibility for more effective environmental protection through robust deterrent.

Creating a new offence to meet a new challenge

Should ecocide eventually be included as an international crime (and even a domestic one), it would doubtless raise many substantive and procedural legal questions.

For example, current ICC procedures include reparation for victims and allow them to participate in proceedings. For crimes with widespread environmental damage and potentially millions of victims, this may not be practical.

But such considerations should not stand in the way of an innovative and important new criminal offence.

The crime of genocide was adopted in 1948 as a result of the horrors of the second world war, and much work was necessary to define and delimit it. Faced with an array of existential threats from ecological crises, it is timely that an ecological crime has been proposed.

Aotearoa was the first country in the world to give a river the legal status of a person. It should now follow that we support this proposal to criminalise ecocide, for the sake of our own environment and that of our neighbours.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Pacific nations want ecocide to become a crime – here’s why NZ should support the proposal – https://theconversation.com/pacific-nations-want-ecocide-to-become-a-crime-heres-why-nz-should-support-the-proposal-238675

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Natalie Lister, Research Fellow, Paediatric Nutrition and Obesity/Pre-Diabetes Treatment, University of Sydney

Weight fluctuation and change in body composition with growth is a normal part of development. Apart from the first year of life, teenage years experience the most rapid increase in growth and development.

Your health-care provider will consider your child’s weight status as part of a holistic assessment considering age, sex, and stage of growth.

Not all children with high weight will have health consequences.

However, as children get older excess body fat may have health complications including sleep apnoea (where breathing stops and starts during sleep), bone or joint problems, liver disease, high blood pressure or cholesterol, or insulin resistance (pre-diabetes).

If you notice changes in your child or adolescent’s health – such as dark patches around the neck or under arms (which indicate insulin resistance), headaches, trouble sleeping or joint pain – speak with your GP.

What will your GP do?

Your GP can investigate if there is a health impact related to excess weight. They may check blood pressure, and do a blood test to check liver health, cholesterol levels and blood sugar levels.

High weight is often related to mental health issues such as depression, anxiety, or eating disorders. Your GP can help assess and manage these conditions.

A GP with experience in weight management can provide appropriate support and referrals to local support depending on your area. An accredited practising dietitian experienced in paediatric health, for example, can help develop healthy meal routines for the family.

Changes that involve the whole family

Initial treatments for weight-related health will depend on your child’s age. They usually involve a whole-of-family approach to improving health behaviours, such as:

• healthy dietary changes such as offering a variety of fruits and vegetables of different colours and types, and limiting sugary drinks and foods high in salt, fat and sugar

• limiting screen time (aiming for no more than two hours a day of non-education screen time for children aged five to 17)

• improving sleep habits (aiming for 9-11 hours a night for children aged six to 12, and 8-10 hours a night for teens)

• increasing physical activity (aiming for one hour of energetic play or vigorous activity a day).

Most children and adolescents will have improved physical and mental health and wellbeing after behaviour-changing interventions. This might include improved eating behaviours, fewer symptoms of depression, and better self-esteem and body image.

Options for adolescents

Sometimes weight loss may be recommended for adolescents with significant excess weight and associated complications.

As children get older, they will be included in the treatment decision making-process.

A range of prescriptive diets have been trialled with adolescents, including very low energy diets.

Our recent trial shows specific diets can stabilise weight and improve physical and mental health of adolescents. Our trial included 141 adolescents with obesity-associated complications and compared intermittent and continuous energy restriction.

We found improvements in weight, insulin resistance and liver function after one year for both groups. Symptoms of depression, eating disorders and binge eating reduced following four-weeks of a very low energy diet, followed by a transition to intermittent or continuous energy restriction, which was maintained for one year.

However, any prescribed diet should only be used under medical and dietary supervision.

New generation medications (such as Wegovy) are now available to adolescents with severe obesity to be used alongside behavioural therapy. These can help with weight loss and reduce risk of future health complications.

Bariatric surgery may be an option for older teens with significant health complications.

If you are thinking about using medications or having surgery, discuss the risks and benefits with your doctor.

Watch for signs of disordered eating

Children and adolescents with higher body weight may attempt to lose weight on their own. Unfortunately, most publicly available information is not tailored to the needs of growing children, can be unsustainable and may lead to disordered eating behaviours.

Social media is loaded with unhelpful weight loss, diet and exercise messages, and often promotes unattainable body image ideals. Talk to you children about what they see on social media to help them recognise which social media content is beneficial.

If you notice your child is losing weight quickly, hiding food or eating in secret, binge eating (eating a lot of food and feeling they cannot stop), vomiting after eating, overexercising to burn off calories or skipping regular meals to try and lose weight, discuss this with your doctor. These could be signs of an eating disorder.

How you can support your child

Parents are important role models for children and have a key role in supporting the whole family to live a healthy lifestyle.

Start healthy habits. Make healthy eating and enjoyable exercise part of daily life.

Avoid making negative comments about your own or your child’s body – and ask others to do the same. If you hear a negative comment about your child’s weight, try to re-frame this into a positive message. For example, “growing bodies are strong bodies”.

Be aware of bullying. Some children with a higher weight experience teasing or bullying related to their body size. This can occur from peers at school, teachers, parents and even health professionals. Ask your child if they are teased or bullied about their body and take appropriate action.

Finally, keep in mind that different treatments may work differently for different people. If you find a treatment approach is not working for your child or your family, return to your health care provider to discuss other options.

Children and families with weight concerns should be treated with respect and dignity at all times. If you don’t feel your health provider is doing so, consider changing.

Natalie Lister receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC).

Hiba Jebeile receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council.

– ref. I think my child’s weight is affecting their health. How can I best support them? – https://theconversation.com/i-think-my-childs-weight-is-affecting-their-health-how-can-i-best-support-them-234924

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Graham, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Sydney

Australia has long been one of the most expensive places in the world to buy a house. Now, it’s apparently also one of the costliest places to sell one.

Recent reporting in the Guardian has raised concerns about the market dominance of Australia’s two main real estate advertising websites, realestate.com.au and Domain.

Facing little competition, the largest – realestate.com.au – appears to have significantly increased its fees in recent years, while thwarting disruptive innovations from smaller competitors.

Why does that matter? Because when it comes to selling a house, Australia stands out globally. In most other countries, any advertising costs are tiny or bundled in with agent fees.

Here, along with only Sweden and New Zealand, home sellers pay their own advertising costs in addition to real estate agent fees and commissions.

This advertising can be expensive – up to several thousand dollars for a single property listing. But it also seems necessary, with a lack of alternative platforms offering comparable reach.

Setting aside the problems of monopolistic pricing behaviour, what are the economics of high and rising real estate advertising fees? Do home sellers get value for the money they spend on advertising? And what might be the impacts of these fees on the Australian housing market?

Is advertising on big platforms worth it?

First, it’s worth asking whether real estate advertising is actually effective and whether bigger platforms are better.

To explore these questions, a group of US-based economists studied the outcomes of advertising on a large platform favoured by real estate agents in the United States called the “multiple listing service”, compared with a smaller for-sale-by-owner platform.

The study found no differences in eventual home sales prices between the two platforms. But properties on the multiple listing service were more likely to sell and spent less time on the market.

However, the size of the advertising platform didn’t explain these benefits. Rather, the different platforms appealed to buyers and sellers with varying patience levels. This variation in willingness to “wait-and-see” affected the time it took to sell.

Translated to the Australian context, that raises questions about the value for money of advertising on a larger platform – which here, unlike the US, attracts significant fees.

Housing markets are ‘search markets’

Next, we need to consider how high costs of advertising property might affect the housing market more broadly.

Housing markets fall into a category called “search markets” within economics. Sellers seek buyers, and buyers seek sellers offering up properties that meet their required criteria.

The economics of search markets have been extensively studied by the likes of Nobel laureates Peter Diamond, Dale Mortensen and Christopher Pissarides. Their insights highlight the key factors that determine search market outcomes.

Sellers consider the costs of listing an item for sale (such as advertising) and the time it takes to find a buyer. Buyers, on the other hand, consider their alternatives to buying (such as renting) and the time it might take to find a suitable seller.

The likelihood of a sale – and how long everything will take – depends on the number of potential buyers relative to sellers. The sales price is then negotiated after meetings between the two.

This gives us a framework to speculate about how Australia’s high – and increasing – costs of advertising real estate could be affecting the broader housing market on both sides of this equation.

Costs can affect both supply and demand

On the supply side, high fees reduce the net financial benefit of selling a home, which could discourage homeowners from listing their properties. All else being equal, this could lead to fewer properties on the market, shorter selling times, and higher prices for the properties that are listed.

But we can predict some effects on the demand side, too.

High fees also reduce the net benefit of buying a home, as current buyers expect to be sellers in the future. These costs are likely to be even more pronounced for property investors, who buy and sell property more frequently than homeowners.

Anticipation that selling costs will be high in the future could suppress the demand for housing, reducing prices and increasing the time it takes to sell a property.

Interestingly, recent research from the US suggests that these demand-side effects might outweigh the supply-side effects.

Economists studied the impact of a series of court decisions that forced the National Association of Realtors to reduce real estate agent fees. They found lower fees increase the lifetime benefits of homeownership, which leads to a significant increase in house prices.

Significantly, that suggests lowering the costs of selling property – including advertising – could increase property values.

Just one part of the housing story

High prices in any area of economic life are likely to rankle our sense of a fair deal. High fees for advertising real estate have an obvious immediate impact on a home seller’s wallet.

But the nuanced flow-on effects to the broader housing market are harder to tease out. They are also likely to vary across different property markets within Australia. Commentators and policy makers should think carefully before leaping into action in this area.

In the meantime, advertising fees are one more thing to keep an eye on as Australian housing costs continue to rise.

James Graham has received research funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute and is a member of Sydney YIMBY.

– ref. Advertising a house is ridiculously expensive in Australia – could that be affecting the property market? – https://theconversation.com/advertising-a-house-is-ridiculously-expensive-in-australia-could-that-be-affecting-the-property-market-239111

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Leigh Carriage, Senior Lecturer in Music, Southern Cross University

If you immediately start singing along to ABC, Blame It On The Boogie, I’ll Be There, Can You Feel It or Who’s Loving You you are a Jackson 5 fan – and for good reason.

Tito Jackson (Toriano Jackson) was born in Gary, Indianna, on October 15 1953, the third of nine siblings. Like many of his siblings he was a strong vocalist: a tenor, with great “ears” for harmony singing who also began playing the guitar from an early age.

Jackson, who has died at 70, was a lifelong singer and guitarist, releasing his last solo album Under Your Spell in 2021. But he will best be remembered for his time with the Jackson 5.

Along with his brothers Jermaine, Jackie, Marlon and Michael, Tito commenced his music and entertainment career in 1964 with one of the biggest selling acts of all time.

Funky soul-pop

The Jackson 5 signed to Motown Records in 1968. They were the first group with the label to have four consecutive number one hits on the Billboard 100 with The Love You Save, I Want You Back, ABC and I’ll Be There.

At the time, the prosperity and success were unparalleled for a funky soul-pop sounding vocal group. They were sophisticated amid the bubble-gum pop around them, and between 1969 and 1970 they recorded and released four albums.

The Jacksons produced a group vocal sound that was joyous, catchy, rhythmically tight, tonally rich and beautifully blended together.

Their music required each sibling to have a strong inner musicianship with good time feel, interpretive skills, interval recognition, pitch maintenance, a healthy vocal technique – and the ability to do all of this while dancing or playing instruments.

Their famous Motown hit single, I Want You Back, was released in 1969 and featured the Motown trademark use of heavy syncopation in the groove coupled with Michael’s dynamic and powerful voice transitioning seemingly effortlessly from chest range (thicker louder sound and tone) to head voice (thinner lighter sound) supported and framed by the tight vocal arrangement that features “call and response” backing vocal parts by the rest of Jackson brothers.

There is a particular quality that comes from sibling groups like the Jackson 5. As choral director John Cooksey notes:

Siblings who sing together a lot develop a very special sound that comes simply from singing together. Their vibratos are often similar and the blend of voices sets up overtones and creates harmonies that are intriguing. It is a pleasing and warm sound.

My favourite Jackson 5 song, Get it Together, is a lesser known song with modest success reaching number 28 on the charts. Michael and Jermaine share the lead vocal parts on this up tempo funky song. Often Session players were hired for the backing band tracks, and interestingly, Tito is miming on the video playing the funky guitar riff.

A lifelong career

In 1984, Michael and Marlon left the band, by then playing as The Jacksons after leaving Motown Records. Their final album, as a quartet with Jackie, Tito, Jermaine and youngest brother Randy, was 2300 Jackson Street in 1989.

Many years after the Jackson 5 disbanded, Tito continued to write songs, record and tour with brothers Marlon and Jackie as The Jacksons.

In 2003 Tito commenced his own solo projects predominantly within the Blues genre. Tito Time was released in 2016, and what would be his last album, Under Your Spell, was released in 2021.

In many ways this album typifies the combination of all aspects of Tito’s very broad musician history, with a collection of contemporary rhythm and blues, blues/rock type songs such as Rock Me Baby, with guest artist George Benson. Tito’s voice is soulful, warm and sometimes expressively gritty.

Other tracks on the album features a who’s who of guest artists Stevie Wonder, Joe Bonamassa, Claudette King, Eddie Levert, Marlon Jackson, Kenny Neal and Bobby Rush.

The uplifting lead single, Love One Another, has a lyric that talks of unity, of reconciling and of hope. The music video accompanying this track features celebrities and Jackson family members, opening with his mother Katherine, then the likes of Smokey Robinson, Janet Jackson, La Toya Jackson, Jermaine Jackson, and ending with comedian and actor Chris Tucker.

Through his work with The Jackson 5 and as a solo artist, Tito’s songs and brilliant performances have left an enduring and inspiring legacy.

Leigh Carriage does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Tito Jackson was a lifelong musician, best remembered for his work with the Jackson 5 – https://theconversation.com/tito-jackson-was-a-lifelong-musician-best-remembered-for-his-work-with-the-jackson-5-239186

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rodney Tiffen, Emeritus Professor, Department of Government and International Relations, University of Sydney

A unique court case is getting under way in Nevada this week. At stake is the future of the Murdoch empire. The case, which begins on September 17 local time, is scheduled to run (in secret) for two weeks, and sometime after that the Reno Nevada County Probate Commissioner will make what will probably be the biggest decision of their career.

The drama centres on a Murdoch family trust that was agreed on in 1999, when Rupert was divorcing Anna. Instead of seeking a larger share of his fortune, she insisted on the setting up of an irrevocable trust, which meant Rupert’s four existing children (Prudence, Elisabeth, Lachlan and James) would have one share each after he died. Anna’s priority was to secure the long-term futures of the four children and protect them against any future action by Rupert’s new wife, Wendi Deng. So, when Rupert later had two children with Wendi, they had equal access to the money, but no power inside the company.

Last November, Rupert initiated legal action to revoke this “irrevocable” trust, to give his chosen successor, Lachlan, full control. His justification was that the viability of the company rests on its right-wing appeal and that the other three might seek to change this.

Read more:
Rupert Murdoch’s succession plan reveals a lot about his empire – and most of it is not pretty

The move shocked the other three siblings, and reportedly has led to some sharp conflicts. Elisabeth, who had always sought to be the peacemaker in the family, was reported to be particularly angry. There was already irreconcilable conflict between Lachlan and James, who according to several reports have not spoken to each other for five years. It was less clear where Prudence and Elisabeth stood. Now, according to a report in Murdoch’s Wall St Journal, they have moved closer to James.

The trust can only be changed if all beneficiaries would benefit. With the other three children contesting the move, Rupert must convince the judge that these three adults of healthy mind and body are not the best judges of what is in their interests, that their wishes should be overridden. Both sides have expensive lawyers, but common sense suggests Rupert faces an uphill battle, and is unlikely to win.

Political differences?

Rupert’s preference for Lachlan to be his unchallenged successor is usually attributed to politics. However, Rupert and Lachlan are very different political animals. Rupert was always keen to be a participant, an insider pulling strings, privy to inside information. Lachlan does not seem to share this wish to be a player.

Similarly, their public political styles are in sharp contrast. For example, on wind power, Rupert tweeted “Uneconomic, bird-killing windmills. Mad.” On the eve of George W. Bush’s invasion of Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 2003, Murdoch said “We can’t back down now, where you hand the whole of the Middle East to Saddam”. This was more extreme (and more nonsensical) than anything coming from the White House itself. Rupert’s style is sharp, provocative and usually intolerant of any other view.

In contrast, when Lachlan talks about politics, his ambition seems to be to make it as anodyne as possible. In an interview with Paul Kelly to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the Australian newspaper, he commented on US politics:

I think both sides of American politics have been divisive. A lot of public commentary has been around Trump being a divisive figure. But I think the Democrats are being as divisive, and that Biden has been a divisive president. We need to find leadership that can bring the country back together.

At first blush, this sounds reasonable, a “both-sides-ist” balance, but it takes a very determined imagination to say that Biden and Trump have been equally divisive. Moreover, coming from the chief executive of the company that owns Fox News, one of the strongest drivers of divisiveness in US politics, it is the height of hypocrisy.

It is often assumed that Fox News is following Rupert’s political views, but in several important ways they differ. For example, in 2013, encouraging Australia to have more migrants, he said “I’m a big one for encouraging migration. Just look at America.” (Actually he got it wrong – Australia then had 38% of people born overseas, the US just 13%). So Rupert has always been pro-immigration, whereas Trump and Fox News are deeply against.

Privately, Rupert is said to favour tighter gun-control laws, a view that never gets strongly put on Fox. On foreign policy, he is much closer to the George W. Bush neo-cons than to the Trump isolationists, and is adamantly opposed to the pro-Putin leanings on Ukraine. He thought Trump did a bad job on the COVID pandemic and deplored the anti-vax views that Fox News often aired.

After the 2020 election, Rupert believed Trump had clearly lost, and that his promotion of the January 6 violence against the Capitol was shameful. However, when Fox News ratings fell, Murdoch and the other top management panicked and instead locked themselves into Trump’s false narrative of a rigged election. Their ratings improved, although it proved a very expensive strategy when Fox News was forced to pay Dominion Voting Systems $US787.5 million (A$1.17 billion), the biggest defamation payout in US history, for the falsehoods they had broadcast.

So it is not quite that Rupert shares the Fox News worldview, but rather that he sees going along with it as a commercial necessity. Rather than being too moderate, it seems Rupert and Lachlan fear the others may want professional integrity to intrude on their commercial expedience.

Starboard Value and dual voting shares

Although it lacks the Succession-style drama of a family conflict, an equally important challenge awaits the Murdochs later in the year. The hedge fund Starboard Value publicly released a letter sent to all shareholders on September 9 proposing to eliminate News Corp’s dual-class share structure. This was set up by Murdoch decades ago when he needed to raise capital but did not want to dilute his control, and so engineered an issue of non-voting shares. Today the Murdochs have around 40% of the votes with just 14% of the total shares.

The letter says News Corp suffers from worst-in-class corporate governance and that the company is significantly undervalued and burdened by its share structure. It contends that

while we can understand how some could see a benefit to a visionary founder retaining outsized control for a limited duration of time, that potential understanding vanishes as super-voting power and the associated protections transition to others.

It went on that current arrangements provide outsized influence to the Murdoch family. It is “clearly not the appropriate governance structure for a public company, and we believe it has exacerbated News Corp’s valuation discount relative to its inherent value.”

Last year Starboard Value recommended that News should seek to spin off its property division (including the REA group in Australia), the company’s best-performing part, and this could provide a $7 billion windfall. Other investment analysts have also said the underperforming parts of News Corp are dragging down its market value.

Evidence of shareholder wariness came in 2022 when Rupert and Lachlan aimed to re-merge their two companies, News Corp and 21st Century Fox, but were forced to abandon the idea. There have been several earlier attempts to change the dual voting share structure. One year, 90% of unaffiliated shareholders voted that way, but fell just short of an overall majority, thanks to the Murdoch gerrymander.

This time, however, the Murdochs are opposed by the head of Starboard Value, Jeffrey Smith, who according to Crikey was once described as “the most feared man in corporate America”. Both Fox (up 24% over the past year) and News (up 30%) have done well recently in the share market. However, as evidence of the problems facing the company, last year it slashed 5% of its global workforce, roughly 1,250 jobs.

What happens next?

Here are four predictions for how this may play out.

1. Rupert will lose the court case. His move is likely to be counterproductive in many ways. It has escalated conflicts in the family, and united the other three siblings against Lachlan. It will be used by shareholder groups as evidence of family dysfunction, and strengthen their case to abolish dual voting rights.

2. Either before Rupert dies or within a year or two afterwards, a majority of shareholders will abolish the dual voting structure. The family will then be reduced to about one-seventh of the total vote, and its power correspondingly reduced.

3. After Rupert’s demise, the Murdoch assets will be further fragmented and reduced. The real estate businesses will be floated, and several loss-makers, such as the New York Post, will be closed.

4. Within five years of Rupert’s death – depending what parts of the companies are invested in, sold off or closed – neither News Corp nor 21st Century Fox will have a chief executive named Murdoch.

Rodney Tiffen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Rupert Murdoch’s real-life succession drama is underway in a Nevada courtroom. What might happen next? – https://theconversation.com/rupert-murdochs-real-life-succession-drama-is-underway-in-a-nevada-courtroom-what-might-happen-next-239091

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rob Nicholls, Senior Research Associate in Media and Communications, University of Sydney

The Global Media Internet Concentration Project examines the concentration of the communications and media in countries around the world.

The latest data for Australia have recently been released, and they show just how big Google is here.

Alphabet (Google’s parent company) had 2022 revenue in Australia of A$7.9 billion.

That revenue is only exceeded by Telstra, and is bigger than Optus and NBN Co. It’s also bigger than the revenues of News Corporation and Nine Entertainment combined.

The network media economy includes telecoms and internet infrastructure, digital and traditional publishing and internet-based companies. The 2022 revenue of this economy in Australia was $69 billion. The revenue of the top four telecommunications operators accounted for half of that.

The major internet advertising players were, unsurprisingly, Google and Meta. Together, they had revenue in excess of $10 billion.

While this sector is clearly a major part of the Australian economy, there are significant problems yet to be solved. Namely, how do we fund public-interest journalism in a sector that’s concentrated to a few major players? The report has some insights to help guide the path forward.

Highly concentrated market

Australia has traditionally had the most concentrated media sectors in the OECD. The report shows this hasn’t changed.

News Corporation, the commercial television networks and Southern Cross Media are the major players across television, newspapers and radio. Concentration in commercial radio increased significantly over the 2019–22 period.

Australia’s media concentration is among the highest in the Western world.

One new feature is the importance of classified advertising players in their own right.

For example, Seek and the Car Group are in the top 20 businesses by revenue. An examination of the News Corp revenue shows that REA (realestate.com), which is majority-owned by News Corp, provides about 25% of News Corp’s total revenue. This figure is 70% of the company’s newspaper revenue.

Nine Media owns 60% of Domain. While in 2023–24 Domain represents less than 10% of Nine’s revenue, it is a more significant (about 25%) contributor to free cash flow.

The opaque world of streaming

One of the more interesting sectors is online video services. The availability of revenue information for this sector is patchy as many of its largest operators are either global media players (Netflix, Disney+) or part of complex digital businesses (Amazon Prime, Apple TV).

It’s a sector where there is evidence of both disruption of traditional media oligopolies in broadcast TV and the entry of traditional media players into streaming. Nine Entertainment has Stan, News Corporation has Binge and Kayo, and Network 10 has Paramount+ in partnership with Paramount.

One challenge facing the federal government is whether online video services can be obligated to meet Australian content requirements, as commercial broadcasters currently are.

What about news?

An issue that flows from this report is the prospect of an alternative to the News Media Bargaining Code.

Under the code, tech companies and news organisations could negotiate to pay for content and have it included on digital platforms. Until now, it hasn’t been used by Meta because it had commercial arrangements directly with media companies, but those have since expired and won’t be renewed.

Read more:
Facebook won’t keep paying Australian media outlets for their content. Are we about to get another news ban?

The government and media alike are still grappling with how to fund public interest journalism. There’s also appetite to adequately regulate huge tech companies to better reflect their size in the Australian market.

One option is a digital services tax. However, this would be problematic in the context of Australia’s obligations under the World Trade Organisation and the free trade agreement with the United States.

Digital services taxes have also formed part of OECD discussions on “Pillar 1” of a Global Tax Agreement. France and the United Kingdom have revised their positions on such taxes and have committed to withdraw them.

How about a levy?

An alternative approach would be a public interest journalism levy in a similar form to the Telecommunications Infrastructure Levy.

Under the Telecommunications Act, service providers are either carriage service providers or content service providers. Both forms are class licensed.

Broadly, carriage service providers that operate specified infrastructure must hold a carrier licence. Holders of a carrier licence with revenue greater than $25 million per year must contribute to the levy.

A simple mechanism would be to introduce a new form of content licence. There would then be a requirement that content service providers which operate specified infrastructure must hold a content licence.

Holders of a content licence with revenue greater than $25 million per year would be required to contribute to the public interest journalism levy.

The contribution to the levy could be made proportionate to the returns received through digital advertising.

On current figures, Alphabet and Meta would contribute about 70% of the levy. Handily, the scheme would have the benefit of not requiring the federal government to designate particular companies (like it does under the bargaining code).

The levy also wouldn’t be contingent on the value of news to the overall platform. If Meta decides they don’t care for platforming news, for example, the levy wouldn’t change.

The rate of the levy would depend on the level of funding required. However, using the revenues in the report, it would be lower than 2% of content service revenue. This would make for a funding pool about the same size as it currently available to news organisation under the bargaining code.

Read more:
How well is the federal government regulating social media in Australia?

Rob Nicholls also works for the Association for Data-driven Marketing. He receives funding from the Australian Research Council. The Conversation receives funding from Google negotiated under the Australian Government’s News Media Bargaining Code. It has also previously received grant funding from Google.

Cameron McTernan receives funding from the Canadian Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council

Scott Fitzgerald receives funding from the Canadian Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. Scott is affiliated with the National Tertiary Education Union and is the union’s Curtin University Branch President.

Terry Flew receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Google is worth more in Australia than major news outlets. Here’s how it could better fund journalism – https://theconversation.com/google-is-worth-more-in-australia-than-major-news-outlets-heres-how-it-could-better-fund-journalism-239093

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Benjamin Herscovitch, Research Fellow, School of Regulation and Global Governance, Australian National University

Ever since AUKUS’ public announcement three years ago, China has been staunchly opposed to the partnership.

Beijing has blasted AUKUS diplomatically and mounted a concerted campaign to challenge its legality.

China has said AUKUS is “driven by Cold War thinking,” “fuelling military confrontation,” and creating “additional nuclear proliferation risks”.

The aim of AUKUS is for the Australian navy to acquire nuclear-powered submarines, with Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States also collaborating on other advanced military technologies.

As AUKUS sceptics have argued, it’s entirely possible Australia will never get its planned nuclear-powered attack submarines. Any number of factors — from the mercurial whims of a future US president to American shipbuilding constraints — could see the partnership fall over.

However, if the plan succeeds, even in a modified form, it’ll pose a serious military challenge to China. As Kevin Rudd, the former Australian prime minister and current ambassador to the US, said in recent days, it’s probably already complicating China’s future geopolitical calculations.

When Chinese military analysts look at the geopolitical picture, they see it more clouded and cluttered than they did before.

Here are three reasons why China finds the pact so threatening.

1. Complicating China’s nuclear strategy

AUKUS submarines will not be armed with nuclear warheads. But these boats could be used to endanger China’s sea-based nuclear weapons.

China currently operates six submarines that are both nuclear-powered and capable of launching nuclear weapons. These are based on Hainan Island, where they enjoy the protection of hardened bases. They can quickly reach the deep waters of the South China Sea to reduce the likelihood of detection.

Monitoring China’s nuclear weapons-capable submarines as they leave Hainan Island is likely to be among the most important of the many missions for the AUKUS boats.

The increased speed, stealth and endurance of AUKUS submarines mean they’d be able to reach the South China Sea quicker. Once there, they can stay “on station” undetected for much longer.

This peacetime monitoring of China’s nuclear weapons-capable submarines would help build a better understanding of their hydro-acoustic signatures and thereby make these Chinese boats more vulnerable to detection.

Combined with the intelligence gathered by Australia’s regular South China Sea maritime air patrols, AUKUS submarines could eventually enhance the ability of the Australian and allied militaries to track and, in conflict scenarios, attack China’s sea-borne nuclear deterrent.

2. A direct military threat to China

Foreign Minister Penny Wong has said in connection to AUKUS that Australia needs to be able to “hold potential adversaries’ forces and infrastructure at risk from a greater distance”.

She might not have mentioned China in the same breath. But like many Australians, military planners in Beijing would imagine China is the most probable target.

Likely armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles capable of striking land, AUKUS submarines could be used to target Chinese military bases and infrastructure in the South China Sea and along the country’s east coast.

AUKUS submarines could also constrict China’s access to the economic inputs essential for warfighting. China remains acutely dependent on Indian Ocean and East Asian shipping lanes for imports of oil and other resources. The ability of AUKUS submarines to travel vast distances without surfacing or refuelling could allow them to threaten China’s vital maritime supply routes in conflict scenarios.

Beijing might even imagine that AUKUS submarines could be used to directly attack Chinese cities in an all-out war. This might seem far-fetched for now, but with military planning often dealing with worst-case scenarios, Chinese defence strategists are probably considering this possibility.

3. Further tipping the regional military balance

Australia is expected to buy at least three – and possibly as many as five – Virginia-class submarines from the United States in the next decade and a half.

These boats might have otherwise gone into the US fleet, meaning that until 2040 and perhaps even beyond, the size of the American nuclear-powered submarine force could be smaller than it would have been without AUKUS. And there is still much uncertainty surrounding the political and industrial feasibility of both the planned sale of Virginia-class submarines and the construction of a new AUKUS class of boat.

But assuming it’s successful, AUKUS will substantially increase the total number of nuclear-powered submarines operated by the US and its allies from around the 2040s onwards, potentially giving them a long-term undersea military advantage over China.

In the near term, AUKUS could also enable the deployment of additional high-end US and allied military platforms to the region.

Of course, this isn’t just an AUKUS story. Australia will welcome more US bombers and fighter aircraft in the coming years, and we’ll likely see larger US forces in Japan and the Philippines, among other locations.

Still, the establishment of Submarine Rotational Force – West under the AUKUS plan will see a big boost to US and allied military power in the region. It’s expected to involve the rotational presence of one UK and up to four US nuclear-powered submarines in Western Australia from 2027.

This might mean a weakening of China’s relative submarine strength in the region regardless of what happens with the eventual delivery and construction of nuclear-powered submarines for Australia.

This is not a complete account of all the reasons China might have for opposing AUKUS. But these three factors alone suggest the partnership has the potential to pose a significant and long-term military challenge to Beijing.

The author has previously received competitive grant funding from the Australian government’s National Foundation for Australia-China Relations and the Department of Defence. The views expressed here are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the Australian government, the National Foundation for Australia-China Relations or the Department of Defence.

– ref. China says AUKUS is ‘driven by Cold War thinking’. Here are 3 reasons it is so threatened by the pact – https://theconversation.com/china-says-aukus-is-driven-by-cold-war-thinking-here-are-3-reasons-it-is-so-threatened-by-the-pact-236065

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Luke Emerson, PhD Candidate in ecology, Deakin University

Earth’s majestic “apex predators” are some of the most prolific hunters in the world. But which ones kill the most?

Our new research showed solitary hunters such as bears, tigers and Eurasian lynx have higher individual kill rates than social predators such as wolves and lions. And smaller species, such as cheetahs and pumas, tend to kill relatively more prey because their kills are often stolen by more dominant carnivores.

Such information allows us to better understand how different predators affect their environment. It can also guide hunting quotas and help evaluate how humans affect carnivores.

These apex predators perform vital roles in ecosystems. Yet tragically they are among the world’s most threatened animals. Carnivores frequently come into conflict with humans, particularly over livestock and public safety.

Our approach

Our research was a systematic, world-first literature review into the predatory behaviour of large land-based carnivores. In particular, we examined carnivore “kill rates” – the number of prey killed over time. We did this to better understand their foraging and impacts on prey populations and ecosystems.

We examined 196 papers that either quantified large mammal carnivore kill rates, or reported data we could use to calculate the rates ourselves.

We focused on the large land-based carnivores weighing 15 kg or more. We also searched for kill rate studies on four smaller species — coyote, wolverine, fossa (a cat-like predator found in Madagascar) and the Tasmanian Devil — as they’re all considered apex predators in certain regions and ecosystems.

We only found kill rate estimates for 17 (55%) of the 31 carnivore species included in our review. Studies came from 27 countries across five continents.

Carnivores hunt in different ways

We found kill rates differ between carnivores with different social structures and hunting strategies.

Social predators, such as wolves and lions, tend to kill fewer animals per carnivore than solitary hunters such as bears, tigers and Eurasian lynx. For example, on average grey wolves made a kill every 27 days per wolf, compared with every four days per Eurasian lynx.

Larger wolf packs can bring down large animals such as bison more easily. Similarly, groups of cheetahs can tackle larger prey than solitary cheetahs. This could mean they don’t need to hunt as often.

Working as a team may also reduce losses to scavengers, as groups can better defend their kills through sheer numbers. Or they might be better at scavenging and stealing (“kleptoparasitism”) from others.

Canine predators such as wolves and African wild dogs often rely on high-energy pursuits over long distances. For example, grey wolves can pursue prey for more than 20km. In contrast, cats rely on stealth, using an ambush hunting strategy. This saves energy.

Solitary large carnivores such as tigers, leopards and Eurasian lynx, which mainly hunt hooved mammals, have similar kill rates regardless of body mass. This suggests large land-based carnivores are compelled to hunt prey closer to their own size or larger, to compensate for the energy used in the hunt.

Smaller carnivores such as cheetahs, pumas and African wild dogs often kill more prey than their larger counterparts, but only consume about half of what they kill.

This behaviour benefits other species such as lions, bears and wolves and is likely a consequence of having to compensate for the theft and loss of food. Pumas are thought to provide more than 1.5 million kilograms of carrion a day across North and South America.

If you’ve seen the Lion King movie, you’d be forgiven for thinking hyenas largely steal and scavenge their food. But that’s not the case. Lions often steal from hyenas, as well as from other carnivores such as cheetahs and African wild dogs.

Bias in kill rate research

More than half (55%) of all kill rate studies have been conducted in North America. Africa follows with almost a quarter (24%), then Europe (12.5%).

Asia was a long way behind with 7% of all kill rate studies. That’s just 13 studies covering six species. This is despite being the largest continent, home to 17 (55%) of the 31 large carnivore species included in our review.

No reliable kill rate studies have been published from Australia.

A third (33%) of all kill rate studies focused on grey wolves, followed by pumas (20%), lions (12%) and Eurasian lynx (8%). This means we know little about the predatory behaviour and roles of other large carnivores.

Grey wolves are considered a threat to livestock and wildlife that humans value. This has prompted significant investment in research to understand their predatory behaviour and that of other large North American carnivores.

Such work has subsequently been used to inform appropriate management and conservation of these predators and their prey.

Carnivores bring benefits

Kill rate studies provide more than just a tally of carnivore behaviour. They offer deeper insights into the relationships between predators and prey, and their effects on ecosystems.

Large carnivores shape ecosystems by scaring and killing prey, which can change their behaviour, distribution and abundance. They also supply food to other species, affecting the flow of nutrients and energy.

In many ways, large carnivores also help people. They can reduce the risk of vehicle collisions, by killing deer that might otherwise wander onto roads. They may limit the spread of disease by preying on sick animals, and control herbivores, aiding livestock producers.

Yet carnivores, including Australia’s dingo, are still widely persecuted. We need to do all we can to maintain their pride of place at the pinnacle of Earth’s ecosystems.

Of course, if you really want to know which species is the biggest killer, it’s humans. We are the dominant predator across Earth.

Euan Ritchie receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Action. Euan is a Councillor within the Biodiversity Council, a member of the Ecological Society of Australia and the Australian Mammal Society, and President of the Australian Mammal Society.

Luke Emerson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The power of one: solitary carnivores outkill group hunters – https://theconversation.com/the-power-of-one-solitary-carnivores-outkill-group-hunters-238235

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Miller, PhD Candidate, School of Information Management, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

Just four years ago, experts warned te reo Māori was on a “pathway towards extinction” unless resources were put into teaching young Māori.

But a new mathematical model combined with recent data suggests the future of Māori language is not as grim as it once was.

My ongoing research looks at the future trajectory of Māori language acquisition over the next few decades. Based on recent data, my model suggests the Māori language could be on a path to recovery.

For over 50 years, revitalisation efforts have played a significant role in supporting the language’s resurgence.

The progress of te reo Māori provides hope for campaigners working to save the 55% of world languages destined to be dormant, doomed, or extinct by the end of the century.

Rescuing te reo Māori

Māori revitalisation efforts began in earnest in the late 1970s. The first kōhanga reo was opened in 1982, and te reo Māori was made an official language under the Maori Language Act 1987.

Despite these efforts, there have been ongoing concerns about the sustainability of the language. According to the 2018 Census, just 4% of New Zealanders reported they were fluent speakers of te reo Māori, up from 3.7% in 2013.

In the General Social Survey (also based on self-reported data), the number of people able to speak te reo Māori, at least fairly well, increased – from 6.1% in 2018 to 7.9% in 2021.

This was the first time there was a significant increase in this level of te reo Māori proficiency.

In 2019, the Labour government committed to the revitalisation of te reo Māori by setting a national target of one million speakers (at any level of proficiency) by 2040.

Modelling the future

My research is based on several sources of data – including the Census, the General Social Survey and the Te Kupenga survey of Māori wellbeing. The goal is to model how many speakers of te reo Māori we can expect in 20 or 30 years.

To understand this future path, I use my model to create different possible trajectories and compare them to these data sources. After finding the trajectories that best match, I extend these trajectories into the next few decades to estimate how many people might speak te reo in the future.

Some of the data, particularly from the more recent General Social Survey and the number of students learning te reo in schools and at university level, pointed to growth in te reo Māori acquisition. For example, enrolments in tertiary te reo courses have increased by 93% over the past ten years.

According to the model and current data, achieving one million speakers by 2040 is within reach, but it will take an increased commitment from the government and communities to make this future more likely.

Read more:
A ‘forever language’ – te Wiki o te Reo Māori marks 52 years of extraordinary progress

Developing policies to help

The next step of the research will be to better understand the role of government policy, iwi and the public in encouraging the adoption of te reo Māori.

Such policies include more te reo Māori in schools, providing more access to university-level te reo courses, encouraging fluent speakers to become teachers, increasing the use of bilingual signs, and promoting the use of te reo Māori at home.

But these are not the sort of policies we can expect from the current government, which has actively discouraged the official use of te reo Māori and is working to reduce incentives for public servants to learn the language.

This year’s Wiki o te Reo Māori (Māori Language Week) also comes amid an ongoing debate around the constitutional role of Te Tiriti o Waitangi (Treaty of Waitangi).

There is likely enough momentum within the reo community to keep the language growing in the short term. But if these policy settings were to continue (or worsen) over several years, it could have a negative effect on the future trajectory of te reo.

There are a lot of Indigenous languages being lost at the moment. Research has shown this can cause irrevocable harm for the communities they belong to.

It is important for the wellbeing of Māori that their language and culture are preserved. And it benefits all New Zealanders to have an understanding of one of the foundational languages of the country.

Based on the modelling, the future is looking hopeful in this respect.

Michael Miller is a PhD scholar funded by Te Pūnaha Matatini – New Zealand Centre of Research Excellence for complex systems.

– ref. Saved from extinction? New modelling suggests a hopeful future for te reo Māori – https://theconversation.com/saved-from-extinction-new-modelling-suggests-a-hopeful-future-for-te-reo-maori-239084

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marc Cheong, Senior Lecturer of Information Systems, School of Computing and Information Systems; and (Honorary) Senior Fellow, Melbourne Law School, The University of Melbourne

When it comes to our experience of the internet, “the times, they are a-changin’”, as Bob Dylan would say. You can’t quite recall how, but the internet certainly feels different these days.

To some, it is “less fun and less informative” than it used to be. To others, online searches are made up of “cookie cutter” pages that drown out useful information and are saturated with scams, spam and content generated by artificial intelligence (AI).

Your social media feeds are full of eye-catching, provocative, hyper-targeted, or anger-inducing content, from bizarre AI-generated imagery to robot-like comments. You’re lucky if your video feeds are not solely made up of exhortations to “subscribe”.

How did we get here? And can we claw our way back?

Commercial interests rule

One major factor contributing to the current state of the internet is its over-commercialisation: financial motives drive much of the content. This has arguably led to the prevalence of sensationalism, prioritising virality over information quality.

Covert and deceptive advertising is widespread, blurring the line between commercial and non-commercial content to attract more attention and engagement.

Another driving force is the dominance of tech giants like Google, Meta and Amazon. They reach billions worldwide and wield immense power over the content we consume.

Their platforms use advanced tracking technologies and opaque algorithms to generate hyper-targeted media content, powered by extensive user data. This creates filter bubbles, where users are exposed to limited content that reinforces their existing beliefs and biases, and echo chambers where other viewpoints are actively discredited.

Bad actors like cyber criminals and scammers have been an enduring problem online. However, evolving technology like generative AI has further empowered them, enabling them to create highly realistic fake images, deepfake videos and voice cloning.

AI’s ability to automate content creation has also flooded the internet with low-quality, misleading and harmful material at an unprecedented scale.

In sum, the accelerated commercialisation of the internet, the dominance of media tech giants and the presence of bad actors have infiltrated content on the internet. The rise of AI further intensifies this, making the internet more chaotic than ever.

Some of the ‘good’ internet remains

So, what was the “good internet” some of us long for with nostalgia?

At the outset, the internet was meant to be a free egalitarian space people were meant to “surf” and “browse”. Knowledge was meant to be shared: sites such as Wikipedia and The Internet Archive are continuing bastions of knowledge.

Before the advent of filter bubbles, the internet was a creative playground where people explored different ideas, discussed varying perspectives, and collaborated with individuals from “outgroups” – those outside their social circles who may hold opposing views.

Early social media platforms were built on the ethos of reconnecting with long-lost classmates and family members. Many of us have community groups, acquaintances and family we reach out to via the internet. The “connection” aspect of the internet remains as important as ever – as we all saw during the COVID pandemic.

What else do we want to preserve? Privacy. A New Yorker cartoon joke in 1993 stated that “on the internet, nobody knows you’re a dog”. Now everyone – especially advertisers – wants to know who you are. To quote the Office of the Australian Information Commissioner, one of the tenets of privacy is “to be able to control who can see or use information about you”.

At the very least, we want to control what big tech knows about us, especially if they could stand to profit from it.

Can we ever go back?

We can’t control “a changin’” times, but we can keep as much of the good parts as we can.

For starters, we can vote with our feet. Users can enact change and bring awareness to problems on existing platforms. In recent times, we have seen this with the exodus of users from X (formerly Twitter) to other platforms, and the platform-wide protest against Reddit for changing its third-party data access policies.

However, voting with our feet is only possible when there’s competition. In the case of X, various other platforms – from Mastodon to Threads to Bluesky – enable users to pick one that aligns with their preferences, values and social circles. Search engines have alternatives, too, such as DuckDuckGo or Ecosia.

But competition can only be created by moving to decentralised systems and removing monopolies. This actually happened in the early days of the internet during the 1990s “browser wars”, when Microsoft was eventually accused of illegally monopolising the web browser market in a landmark court case.

As users of technology, all of us must remain vigilant about threats to our privacy and knowledge. With cheap and ubiquitous generative AI, misleading content and scams are more realistic as ever.

We must exercise healthy scepticism and ensure those most at risk from online threats – such as children and older people – are educated about potential harms.

Remember, the internet is not optimised for your best interests. It’s up to you to decide how much power you give to the tech giants who are fuelling theirs.

Marc Cheong is a member of the Twitter Moderation Research Consortium, made up of a “global group of experts studying platform governance issues”. He was also part of CrowdTangle’s Academics & Researchers program (Meta owns CrowdTangle).

Wonsun Shin is an associate editor of Journal of Advertising and serves on the Editorial Review Boards of the International Journal of Advertising and Communication Research Practice. Her research has been funded by Meta Platform, Australian Research Council, and Academy of Korean Studies.

– ref. The internet is worse than it used to be. How did we get here, and can we go back? – https://theconversation.com/the-internet-is-worse-than-it-used-to-be-how-did-we-get-here-and-can-we-go-back-236513

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Zena Assaad, Senior Lecturer, School of Engineering, Australian National University

Last week, some 2,000 government officials and experts from around the world met for the REAIM (Responsible Artificial Intelligence in the Military Domain) summit in Seoul, South Korea. This was the second event of its kind, with the first one held in the Netherlands in February 2023.

During this year’s summit, 61 countries endorsed a “Blueprint for Action” for governing the development and use of artificial intelligence (AI) by the military.

However, 30 countries sent a government representative to the summit but didn’t endorse the blueprint, including China.

The blueprint is an important, if modest, development. But there is still a gap in the understanding of what constitutes responsible use of AI and how this translates into concrete actions in the military domain.

How is AI currently used in military contexts?

Military use of AI has increased over the last few years, notably in the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts.

Israel has used AI-enabled systems known as “Gospel” and “Lavender” to help it make key military decisions, such as which locations and people to target with bombs. The systems use large amounts of data, including people’s addresses, phone numbers and membership of chat groups.

The “Lavender” system in particular made headlines earlier this year when critics questioned its efficacy and legality. There was particular concern around its training data and how it classified targets.

Both Russia and Ukraine also use AI to support military decision making. Satellite imagery, social media content and drone surveillance are just some of the many information sources which generate copious volumes of data.

AI can analyse this data much more quickly than humans could. The results are incorporated into existing “kill chains” – the process of locating, tracking, targeting and engaging targets.

It means military officials can make faster decisions during active armed conflict, providing tactical advantages. However, the misuse of AI systems can also result in potential harm.

Civil society and non-governmental organisations such as the International Committee of the Red Cross have warned about the risks. For example, algorithmic bias can exacerbate the risk to civilians during active warfare.

What is responsible AI in the military domain?

There is no consensus on what constitutes “responsible” AI.

Some researchers argue the technology itself can be responsible. In this case, “responsible” would mean having built-in fairness and freedom from bias.

Other studies refer to the practices around AI – such as design, development and use – being responsible. These would mean practices that are lawful, traceable, reliable and focused on mitigating bias.

The blueprint endorsed at the recent summit in Seoul aligns with the latter interpretation. It advocates that anyone using AI in the military must comply with relevant national and international laws.

It also highlights the importance of human roles in the development, deployment and use of AI in the military domain. This includes ensuring human judgement and control over the use of force are responsibly and safely managed.

This is an important distinction, because many narratives around AI falsely imply an absence of human involvement and responsibility.

What can governments do to use military AI responsibly?

Discussions at the summit focused heavily on concrete steps governments can take to support responsible use of military AI.

As military AI use is currently increasing, we need interim steps to deal with it. One suggestion was to strike AI regulation agreements within different regions, rather than taking longer to reach a global, universal consensus.

To improve global cooperation on military AI, we could also heed lessons from previous global challenges – such as nuclear non-proliferation, saving the ozone layer and keeping outer space and Antarctica demilitarised.

Eighteen months since the inaugural summit last year, governments and other responsible parties have started putting into place risk-mitigation processes and toolkits for military AI.

The blueprint reflects the progress since then, and the ideas discussed at the summit. It proposes a number of tangible steps, which include:

• universal legal reviews for AI-enabled military capabilities
• promoting dialogue on developing measures to ensure responsible AI in the military domain at the national, regional and international levels
• maintaining appropriate human involvement in the development, deployment and use of AI in the military domain.

However, progress is slow because we still don’t have a universal understanding of what responsible military AI actually looks like.

The need to cut thorough these issues is now putting pressure on the next summit (not yet announced). The Netherlands has also set up an expert body to further a globally consistent approach to military AI.

Humanity can benefit from AI tools. But we urgently need to ensure the risks they pose don’t proliferate, especially in the military domain.

Lauren Sanders has previously received funding from the Australian Government’s Next Generation Technologies Fund, through Trusted Autonomous Systems, a Defence Cooperative Research Centre. She is affiliated with the Asia-Pacific Institute for Law and Security, and a legal practice that provides international law advice. The views in this article are her own and do not reflet those of any institutions she is affiliated with.

Rain Liivoja has previously received funding from the Australian Government’s Next Generation Technologies Fund, through Trusted Autonomous Systems, a Defence Cooperative Research Centre. He is affiliated with the Asia-Pacific Institute for Law and Security.

Zena Assaad does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Global powers are grappling with ‘responsible’ use of military AI. What would that look like? – https://theconversation.com/global-powers-are-grappling-with-responsible-use-of-military-ai-what-would-that-look-like-237216

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Fitz-Gibbon, Professor (Practice), Faculty of Business and Economics, Monash University, Monash University

Domestic, family and sexual violence is rightly recognised as a national crisis.

While the evidence base has built significantly in recent years, one important missing piece of the puzzle is how these forms of violence have impacted people who die by suicide across the country.

Data released this week by the Coroner’s Court of Victoria provides a detailed account of the experiences of family violence among people who have died by suicide.

The statistics are alarming. They remind us of what many working in this space already instinctively knew: the horrifically high count of lives lost to the national crisis of men’s violence against women is likely far higher than official numbers suggest.

What does the report tell us?

This latest report presents data collected by the Victorian Suicide Register on 4,790 suicides reported between 2009 and 2016.

Over this period, in one in four suicides (24.5%) the deceased had experienced family violence prior to their death.

This rate was higher among females who died by suicide, with evidence of family violence present in 28.2% of cases recorded.

This rate only captures the cases in which evidence of family violence could be identified by the court.

Given all forms of family violence are under reported, including to police, legal and other services, this data are likely to underestimate the true rates of family violence experienced by people who die by suicide.

Where there was evidence of family violence prior to the suicide, in half of these the person who died by suicide was the perpetrator of violence.

In one in three cases, the individual who died by suicide had experienced family violence victimisation. In these cases, the deceased was significantly more likely to be a female (62.1%).

The report also records a further 17.5% of suicides where the individual who died by suicide had both used and been a victim of family violence. Little information about this group is provided.

We need to better understand the primary use of violence in these situations, including whether this data includes incidents of misidentification and what the impact of it was. The role of intergenerational experiences of abuse should also be considered.

Gendered abuse

The report highlights gender differences in the records of people who died by suicide in Victoria during this period.

Significantly more males (65%) than females (16%) were recorded as a family violence perpetrator. Conversely, females were significantly more likely to be listed as a victim of family violence (62.1%).

These differences are expected given the gendered nature of family violence. Internationally, research has consistently highlighted the higher risk of suicidality and self-harm among women victims of violence.

The data show just over one in two male perpetrators of family violence who die by suicide had used violence against an intimate partner.

A higher proportion of men (22.1%) who died by suicide than women (10.2%) had perpetrated family violence against numerous people, including a partner and at least one other family member.

The data also show female victims of family violence who died by suicide were more likely to have experienced family violence by their intimate partner.

By contrast, male victims were more likely to have experienced family violence perpetrated by a family member other than their partner.

Many factors at play

The report provides insights into how family violence and suicide interact with other social issues.

While the report doesn’t discuss causation, it does look at prevalence of mental health diagnoses. Nearly three quarters of victims of family violence who later died by suicide had been diagnosed with a mental illness at some point in their lives (72.5% among males, 78.2% among females).

The rate of substance misuse was reported as higher among people who had experienced family violence than among the general Victorian suicide population.

Victims and perpetrators of family violence who died by suicide were more likely to be under financial stress when compared to the broader Victorian suicide population.

This was defined as any evidence of stress or harm relating to the deceased’s financial situation. For example, high debts, loss of money, inability to pay mortgage or bills or afford other costs of living, and gambling-related harms. This is a timely finding given the current cost of living crisis and the need to understand where additional support services may be needed.

More than 60% of male family violence perpetrators who died by suicide in the period studied had experienced at least one legal stressor prior to their death. This included involvement in criminal and civil legal processes, including divorce settlements and child custody cases.

Reflecting the harmful impacts the legal system can have on victims, legal stressors were also present in more than a third of the lives of victims of family violence who died by suicide.

Coordination and consistency is key

This data represents an important step forward in quantifying the prevalence of family violence among individuals who died by suicide in one Australian state.

But this violence is a national problem. This data are needed for every Australian state and territory. We simply cannot seek to effectively address and prevent what we do not measure.

Following the recommendations of the recent federal rapid review, there needs to be greater coordination at the commonwealth, state and territory levels to gather this data in the same way in every jurisdiction.

Knowing the impact that experiences of family violence may have had on someone’s suicide is also important to understand. This data doesn’t examine the time frame of experiences, nor their proximity to the person’s death. These are crucial factors to inform prevention strategies.

The more we know about how victims experience and interact with services, the more informed early intervention and response efforts can be. It’s likely victims would have encountered a range of different services before they died.

Each of these points is an important opportunity for intervention. Greater understanding, including of what role family and friends may play in supporting their loved ones to seek help, can be used to inform more effective suicide prevention efforts.

First and foremost, each of these lives matter. And they represent additional lives lost in Australia’s national crisis of domestic, family and sexual violence. Current efforts to prevent femicide in Australia should extend to accounting for, and better understanding deaths by suicide following family violence.

The National Sexual Assault, Family and Domestic Violence Counselling Line – 1800 RESPECT (1800 737 732) – is available 24 hours a day, seven days a week for any Australian who has experienced, or is at risk of, family and domestic violence and/or sexual assault.

Kate has received funding for family violence-related research from the Australian Research Council, Australian Institute of Criminology, Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety, the Victorian, Queensland and ACT governments, the Commonwealth Department of Social Services and the Victorian Women’s Trust. This piece is written by Kate Fitz-Gibbon in her role at Monash University and is wholly independent of Kate Fitz-Gibbon’s role as Chair of Respect Victoria.

Stefani Vasil has received funding from Respect Victoria, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the e-Safety Commissioner and the Victorian Women’s Trust.

– ref. New data reveals rates of family violence among those who died by suicide – https://theconversation.com/new-data-reveals-rates-of-family-violence-among-those-who-died-by-suicide-239090

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cathy Humphreys, Professor of Social Work, The University of Melbourne

At least three decades of research on the intersection of substance use with domestic and family violence consistently shows the frequency, severity and impact of violence increases in the context of the perpetrator using alcohol and other drugs.

Some 24–54% of domestic and family violence incidents reported to police in Australia are classified as alcohol-related, while other drugs are implicated in 1–9% of incidents. This is consistent with international evidence which shows substance use occurs with domestic and family violence in 25–50% of cases.

Several studies have also pointed to the increased severity of domestic and family violence when substances are involved. An Australian study, which looked at 240 women murdered by a current or former male partner between 2010 and 2018, reports more than 60% of the male perpetrators were affected by alcohol or drugs during the fatal episode.

Other research indicates alcohol-related domestic and family violence is two to three times more likely to involve severe physical violence such as life-threatening injuries and broken bones, compared to domestic and family violence where alcohol is not involved.

Our research, however, is interested specifically in the role alcohol and other drugs play in perpetrators’ tactics of violence and abuse. This is sometimes called “substance use coercion” and is a type of coercive control.

Understanding substance use coercion

Coercive control is a repeated pattern of emotional, verbal, sexual, financial or technology-enabled abuse that creates fear and exerts control over another person.

A set of national principles seeking to address coercive control in family and domestic violence recognise that substance use can be exploited in the same way as technology or financial abuse.

Our work identifies several ways perpetrators may use alcohol or other drugs as a form of coercive control, or, in other words, exploit their own substance use to gain more power. These include:

• to excuse their violence (“The drink made me do it”)

• to shift the focus from their abuse to other issues (“I have a drug problem, that’s more important”)

• to control others through their substance use. For example, when a person using violence is intoxicated or in withdrawal, victim-survivors often comply with their demands or avoid arguments to de-escalate the violence.

Perpetrators may also weaponise victim-survivors’ substance use. Research shows that, to numb the physical and emotional pain of family violence, victim-survivors may start using substances.

Perpetrators often encourage this practice to increase their power and control over the victim-survivor and to undermine their credibility if authorities become involved.

Likewise, perpetrators may exacerbate victim-survivors’ existing substance use, such as by pressuring them to drink or take drugs more often. Alternatively they might sabotage victim-survivors’ recovery efforts, preventing their access to treatment services.

Another tactic involves lying about the nature and extent of the victim-survivor’s substance use. This can undermine their credibility with authorities such as child protection services or the family court.

Children suffer too

On a basic level, children are terrified when they hear their father come home drunk and abusive. They fear for both themselves and their mothers, often finding the abuse that follows leaves them with neither parent in a position to look after their needs.

They may also be implicated in their father’s substance use coercion. For example:

Unless you shut those kids up, I’m going to drink.

The severe impact on children living with violence where either or both parents are substance-affected can be seen through child protection data.

A recent New South Wales study reported on children living in situations of domestic and family violence. Children where one or both parents had either substance use issues or poor mental health were three times more likely to be identified as at risk of harm warranting statutory intervention, than in cases of domestic and family violence alone.

Children in situations where substance use and domestic and family violence intersect are some of the most vulnerable in Australia.

What can we do?

Policy and practice responses to the intersection of domestic violence and substance use, both in Australia and internationally, have tended to focus on single issues: domestic violence or substance use.

While many families experience domestic violence and substance use as profoundly intertwined, service systems often fragment their experiences, treating the two as disconnected problems.

Our research is exploring how these two highly siloed sectors can work together, in the form of a 17-week group program for fathers who used violence and abuse in the context of substance use. These men had more significant histories of violence and abuse than men in a similar program targeting violence only.

International evidence shows programs that address both substance use and domestic violence are developed but rarely sustained, despite evidence of their effectiveness.

We would like to see more nuanced policy and practice that recognises the complex crossover between domestic and family violence and substance use. Importantly, these approaches must address children’s experiences of these intersecting issues, and provide tailored responses to promote their safety.

The National Sexual Assault, Family and Domestic Violence Counselling Line – 1800 RESPECT (1800 737 732) – is available 24 hours a day, seven days a week for any Australian who has experienced, or is at risk of, family and domestic violence and/or sexual assault.

Cathy Humphreys receives funding from the Australian Research Council, ANROWS and funding from community organisation grants for specific projects.

Margaret Kertesz receives funding from the Australian Research Council, from DV NSW and project-specific funding from some community-based organisations.

Van Callaly receives funding from the Australian Research Council and project specific funding from some community-based organisations.

– ref. How perpetrators of domestic violence use drugs and alcohol to control their victims – https://theconversation.com/how-perpetrators-of-domestic-violence-use-drugs-and-alcohol-to-control-their-victims-236865

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Simon Gorta, PhD Candidate in ecology, UNSW Sydney

It’s not easy finding food at sea. Seabirds often stay aloft, scanning the churning waters for elusive prey. Most seabirds take fish, squid, or other prey from the first few metres of seawater. Scavenging is common.

But there are other tactics. Frigatebirds, skuas, and gulls rely on the success of other seabirds. These large, strong birds chase, harry, and attack their targets until they regurgitate or drop the prey they’ve just caught. They’re the pirates of the seabird world, stealing hard-earned meals from other species. This behaviour is known as kleptoparasitism, from the Ancient Greek word kléptēs, thief.

The strategy is brutal, effective, and a core behaviour for these important seabirds. But as our new research shows, it comes with major risks for the thieves. The new strain of avian flu is killing birds by their millions – and we found kleptoparasitism could spread the virus very easily.

Food thieves at sea

It’s not that frigatebirds, skuas, and gulls can’t hunt. They can and do catch their own food. But hunting fish and squid is hard work. It’s much easier to use extortion tactics to win the food from other seabirds.

These tactics have made these birds very successful as foragers. They hang around the breeding sites of birds such as gannets and terns waiting for a tired parent to return from the sea with a crop of food.

For the seabirds being targeted, these kleptoparasitic birds are just one more threat. The world’s 362 species of seabird can be found across every ocean and many islands. At sea, they prey on fish and squid. When they nest or rest on islands, their nutrient-rich guano shapes soil and plant communities, defining entire ecosystems.

But they are not doing well. Just under half of all seabird species (155) are now classified between “near threatened” and “critically endangered” on the world’s list of threatened species, the IUCN Red List. Of those with known trends, 56% have populations in decline.

The threats they face are daunting. Invasive predators such as mice and rats eat eggs or chicks on breeding islands. Many are caught by fishing boats as accidental bycatch, while overfishing depletes their prey. Then there’s climate change, habitat loss, and many other threats, including disease.

Seabirds are generally long-lived. They often raise only one chick every one or two years. Many species breed in only a few locations. They take many years to mature. Put together, these traits make recovery from population declines slow.

Of parasites and viruses

Three years ago, a more lethal strain of avian influenza virus emerged. This HPAI H5N1 2.3.4.4b strain has spread around the world, killing at least 280 million wild birds. The strain can also infect and kill marine mammals such as seals.

“HPAI” stands for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, meaning the virus can more readily cause severe disease and death. The strain has become an animal pandemic (formally, a panzootic). It’s made it to Antarctica, but not yet to Australia or the rest of Oceania.

We know seabirds are particularly at risk. Our new research has shown kleptoparasites are at an even higher risk relative to other seabirds.

During the 2022 northern hemisphere summer, the virus killed roughly half of the world’s great skua (Stercorarius skua).

Food-stealing behaviour can enable the virus to spread. When a great skua harasses a gannet and makes it regurgitate food, the skua gets a fish meal – coated in saliva. If the gannet is infectious, its saliva will likely have a high viral load.

Once infected, these pirate birds can drive spread faster. Skuas, frigatebirds and gulls can cover great distances across polar regions and the tropics. They can transmit the disease to their mates, chicks, and other seabirds.

This means we could see outbreaks in new populations or places, hundreds or even thousands of kilometres apart. We have already seen signs of this in skua populations in the northern and southern hemispheres, with brown (Stercorarius antarcticus) and great skuas being some of the first detected H5N1 infections at new locations.

Skuas more often steal food from other seabirds when away from their breeding sites – including when they’re migrating back to these areas. If skuas get infected en route, they could bring the disease to their breeding sites and then beyond.

Frigatebirds are known for the red pouches on the necks of the males, which they inflate during breeding season. But they have other remarkable traits, such as travelling tens of thousands of kilometres across oceans outside breeding season. These travels are often broken up by “island-hopping”, where they will encounter and potentially infect other seabirds.

Frigatebirds and skuas have already suffered mass deaths from this strain of avian influenza.

While the virus is now almost everywhere, it hasn’t reached Australia, New Zealand, Oceania, and parts of Antarctica and the subantarctic. We can monitor skuas, frigatebirds and gulls for signs of illness to give us early warning that the virus has arrived.

By itself, avian influenza is a major threat to seabirds. But the outlook is even more dire when this is compounded with further human-caused threats. Identifying, managing, and reducing these threats is critical for their conservation, and the health of our islands and oceans.

Read more:
Lethal bird flu could decimate Oceania’s birds. From vigilance to vaccines, here’s what we’re doing to prepare

Simon Gorta is a PhD student at the University of New South Wales and his PhD research is supported by the Australian Government Research Training Program scholarship.

Richard Kingsford and Rohan Clarke do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘Pirate birds’ force other seabirds to regurgitate fish meals. Their thieving ways could spread lethal avian flu – https://theconversation.com/pirate-birds-force-other-seabirds-to-regurgitate-fish-meals-their-thieving-ways-could-spread-lethal-avian-flu-238438

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nic Rawlence, Associate Professor in Ancient DNA, University of Otago

Aotearoa New Zealand is a land of birds, from the smallest of wrens to the mightiest of moa. The ancestors of some species have been here for tens of millions of years, while others arrived only a few million years ago.

So a recent suggestion that moa and kiwi are recent immigrants from Australia, while wrens and kākāpō are New Zealand’s truly ancient birds, was sure to ignite controversy.

The contentious report was based on a scientific review of fossils found at St Bathans in Central Otago.

However, putting dates on arrivals requires a combination of both physical fossil evidence in deposits of a known age and genetic dating techniques that determine when the birds we know today diverged from their closest relatives.

Dating the arrival of birds in New Zealand

New Zealand is part of the larger continent of Zealandia, which finished separating from the supercontinent Gondwana some 57 million years ago.

Some familiar animals were likely present in proto-New Zealand at this time, including our unique silent frogs, the ancient tuatara and many invertebrates. Tens of millions of years of dispersal of both plants and animals followed.

Fossils and DNA allow us to explore these dispersal events in detail. Fossils can preserve evidence for millennia longer than DNA molecules, but DNA can shed light on many processes even when fossils are rare. This quality is particularly valuable since the chance of finding fossils decreases the further back we look in time.

Both approaches carry their own assumptions and biases that influence calculations of the range of arrival times.

Our team uses ancient DNA to date these arrivals, showing for example that the purple swamp hen ancestors of takahē and moho arrived in Aotearoa New Zealand around four million years ago from Australia, as part of a suite of open-habitat birds that included ancestors of the kakī black stilt, pouākai Haast’s eagle and kērangi Eyles’ harrier.

Other genetic studies have shown the ancestors of New Zealand wrens, the most primitive of all perching birds, split off about 50 to 60 million years ago. Wren fossils are part of the wonders unearthed at St Bathans, alongside remains of both moa and kiwi.

Genetic and morphological analyses of ratites (such as ostrich, kiwi, moa and elephant birds) suggest the ancestors of moa and kiwi reached Zealandia, separately, around 50 to 60 million years ago. Both groups filled the job vacancy in the ecosystem left by dinosaurs, becoming large and flightless.

The kākāpō, meanwhile, along with the kākā and kea, belong to a family that split off from all other living parrots very early on; they, too, are an ancient group. But genetic dating of their arrival in Zealandia remains unresolved, with studies variously putting it between 20 to 80 million years ago.

Precise dating of these splits presents a significant challenge. Nevertheless, the range between 30 million and a few million ascribed to the moa and kiwi by the recent announcement is not borne out by available evidence – and neither group is Australian as reported.

Moa are most closely related to the flying chicken-sized tinamous from South America, and kiwi are relatives of the giant extinct elephant birds from Madagascar. Indeed, Australia did not even exist as a discrete entity 50 to 60 million years ago; it was still firmly affixed to Antarctica and South America.

Exactly what routes the ancestors of moa and kiwi took to reach Zealandia remains unknown. They were part of a group of flying birds with a worldwide distribution called Lithornids, which lost flight many times independently and evolved into the ratites we know today.

The bones will speak

The St Bathans fossil deposit has given us an indispensable window into prehistoric New Zealand, and in many ways it is familiar – the bones of moa, kiwi, parrots, wrens and bats provide a reassuring continuity.

As the publication notes, though, there are also many strange things in the fossil deposit – crocodiles, a relative of flamingos and a giant turtle. There’s an Alice in Wonderland quality to St Bathans, and it’s a crucial piece of the story of Aotearoa New Zealand’s biological heritage.

The presence of a bird’s fossil in the deposit indicates the lineage was present in New Zealand a long time ago. But how long ago, exactly? Most estimates put the age of the St Bathans lake sediments between 12 and 20 million years, but these estimates are imprecise, making definitive statements about the age of animal groups difficult.

Even if a lineage was present in the St Bathans deposits, this still does not prove a continuous presence from that time to the present day.

Whatever the age of St Bathans, it’s tempting to think remains found in the palaeo-lake are members of truly ancient lineages, while things that only arrived after the lake dried up are invaders, little more than wayward tourists that got off at the wrong stop.

No matter when ancestors of birds arrived in New Zealand, their time on these isles has shaped their evolution in profound ways. Our team is working on determining arrival times and it’s looking increasingly dynamic, tied to environmental conditions.

The ancestors of the majestic huia arrived here 27 million years ago, evolving distinct beak shapes in males and females and white-tipped feathers that were high-status symbols in Māori society.

At the other end of the scale, the closest relative of the 16kg Haast’s eagle, whose ancestors arrived here a mere 2.5 million years ago, is the smallest eagle in the world – weighing only 1kg.

Let’s continue to embrace and care for our amazing bird fauna – whatever their age, they all have a bit of Aotearoa New Zealand in them.

Nic Rawlence receives funding from Royal Society Te Apārangi Marsden Fund.

Alan Tennyson has been the recipient of Australian Research Council grants in the past that partly funded the St Bathans fossil excavations.

Pascale Lubbe receives funding from Royal Society Te Apārangi Marsden Fund.

– ref. Are kiwi and moa recent immigrants from Australia? Neither fossils nor genetic evidence support the story – https://theconversation.com/are-kiwi-and-moa-recent-immigrants-from-australia-neither-fossils-nor-genetic-evidence-support-the-story-238577

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachel Ong ViforJ, ARC Future Fellow & Professor of Economics, Curtin University

For many Australians, the family home is their largest financial asset. With an increasing variety of ways to tap into home equity, the temptation to access this wealth is ever growing.

Homeowners increase the debt owed on their home when they borrow against their equity. Standard mortgage home loans now provide facilities for relatively cheap or free withdrawals of equity from the home.

This turns the home into an ATM, which borrowers can access when they choose.

Our new study asks what motivates Australians to tap into their home equity, and how does this behaviour change with age?

Surprisingly, despite having much lower housing equity levels, younger homeowners borrow often, and borrow more, than their Boomer parents.

How common is equity borrowing?

Using 15 years of data from the government-funded Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey, we tracked the mortgage debt and repayments of homeowners aged 35 and over.

The chart below shows younger owners are far more likely to engage in equity borrowing.

In 2006, nearly 39% of the youngest homeowners, aged 35–44, borrowed against their home equity. By 2021, this number had dropped to 29%. Despite the decline, it’s still 24 percentage points more common than those aged 65 and over. The older group has remained steady at about 5% over the years.

How much do equity borrowers withdraw from their home?

Among those who use their home like an ATM, younger borrowers now withdraw larger amounts than older borrowers.

In 2006–07, equity borrowers aged 35–44 and 45–54 withdrew on average $43,000 and $57,000, respectively (expressed in real values set at 2022 price levels). By 2021, the amount withdrawn by these two age groups had climbed to $70,000 and $100,000.

On the other hand, the amount withdrawn by borrowers aged 55 or older fell from more than $50,000 to less than $40,000.

What motivates equity borrowing?

Young homeowners’ equity borrowing behaviours are sensitive to changes in house prices and debt values, and their financial risk preferences. Among those aged 35–44, a $10,000 increase in the primary home value raises the likelihood of equity borrowing by ten percentage points.

Every $10,000 in debt against the primary home reduces the likelihood by 2.8% percentage points. Those willing to take substantial financial risk are eight percentage points more likely to borrow against their home than those who are risk-averse.

Those aged 65+ are not inclined to borrow, and exhibit little change in equity borrowing behaviour with variations in asset, debt, income or financial risk preferences.

Why borrowing practices differ between age groups

As well as being more likely than older homeowners to borrow against equity, the younger group also withdraws higher amounts than their Boomer parents.

This is despite younger borrowers already carrying much higher debt against their primary home. Among those in our study who engaged in equity borrowing in 2021, the median debt before borrowing was $401,000 for 35-44 year-olds compared to $0 for those aged 65+.

As real house prices have risen over decades, the current generation of young homeowners has had to invest more money into purchasing their first home than previous generations.

It’s therefore not surprising the primary home is now widely viewed as a financial resource to be tapped into to meet spending needs.

On the other hand, most Baby Boomers bought their first home at more affordable prices than their children, and at lower levels of debt. Now they don’t appear to be spending their kids’ inheritance by drawing down housing wealth.

In fact, older parents may shy away from equity borrowing to bequeath wealth to children. Some also dislike passing debt on to their children.

Older people may also avoid equity borrowing due to concerns about aged care costs. Some may be hampered by poor financial literacy.

More debt ahead without policy changes

Present trends suggest young homeowners will remain indebted for longer periods, and more and more will retire with mortgage debt.

For indebted retirees, there are real prospects of drawing down of superannuation to pay off mortgages in retirement.

This may impose extra burdens on the age pension system. Another unwelcome consequence, which may add to health costs, is the prospect of debt-related psychological distress among those who can’t pay off their mortgage in old age.

If the current trends continue, the great wealth transfer that has already begun looks set to further entrench inequality between those who have access to the bank of mum and dad and those who do not.

Encouraging older people to use their housing equity to fund their needs in old age may lighten fiscal burdens on younger generations. But policy reforms will be needed to relieve concerns about the risks of equity borrowing in old age.

Rachel Ong ViforJ is the recipient of an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (project FT200100422).

Christopher Phelps does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Young homeowners are more likely to use their home as an ‘ATM’ than their Boomer parents. Here’s why – https://theconversation.com/young-homeowners-are-more-likely-to-use-their-home-as-an-atm-than-their-boomer-parents-heres-why-238924

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mohiuddin Ahmed, Senior Lecturer of Computing and Security, Edith Cowan University

The federal government is stepping up its fight against scams, which last year cost Australians more than A$2.7 billion.

On Friday, the federal treasury released a draft scam prevention framework. The government said the plan is:

an economy‑wide reform to protect the Australian community from scams. It takes a whole‑of‑ecosystem approach to reduce gaps which scammers can exploit.

Many of the measures it includes are designed to put more responsibility onto social media companies, banks and telecommunications companies. This is a welcome move which favours the victims of scams.

However, the increasing sophistication of scams using artificial intelligence (AI) technologies presents an ongoing challenge. The framework also needs to be broader in scope if it is to achieve its aim.

A popular target for scammers

A scam is a criminal scheme designed to deceive someone and steal their personal information and money.

Australia is a popular target for cyber criminals from all around the world. In 2023, there were more than 600,000 scam reports in Australia. This was an 18.5% increase from the previous year.

In total, these scams cost Australians more than A$2.7 billion.

However, this figure is only from reported scams. There are certainly many more unreported ones, too.

Worryingly, new technology is being weaponised by scammers. Recent advances in AI and deepfakes will continue to bring newer variants of scams.

A focus on organisations, not victims

The proposed scam prevention framework in Australia seeks to encourage organisations to stop scams before they happen.

The framework applies to banks, social media platforms and telecommunication companies and requires them to identify, filter and stop scam-related content and transactions.

For example, search engines and social media platforms would be required to authenticate and verify the identity of business users and advertisers. This is aimed at preventing the proliferation of scam advertisements and scam accounts.

Companies that fail to prevent scams would incur a maximum A$50 million penalty.

The proposed framework doesn’t include a requirement for banks to reimburse scam victims. However, the framework imposes a transparent dispute resolution system.

Even before announcing the new anti-scam framework, the federal government was emphasising the importance of cyber security.

This government was the first in the country’s history to introduce a minister for the cyber security portfolio (a position currently held by Tony Burke). It has also launched initiatives such as the $58 million National Anti-Scam Centre.

Other jurisdictions have also been upping their efforts to tackle the problem of scammers. For example, in the United Kingdom banks are supposed to refund scam victims. However, recent changes will favour banks by reducing the maximum reimbursement amount from £415,000 to £80,000 (A$812,000 to A$156,000).

Will it work?

The A$50 million penalty will force banks, telcos and social media companies to improve their scam-fighting tactics, techniques and procedures.

However, in the event of a scam, just blaming these three types of organisations without a transparent investigation will not necessarily help scam victims. Instead, it may just become a courtroom drama in which government prosecutors and corporate lawyers battle it out over whether a fine should be imposed.

It is important to focus on the entire ecosystem of scams. Most start by criminals accessing the contact details of a person, such as their mobile phone number.

Text message-based scams were the most reported in 2023 and scam calls resulted in the highest reported losses of all scams (A$116 million).

Criminals get access to mobile phone numbers in several ways. The most common methods include the dark web, automatic random number generators and simple Google searches.

For example, well-respected members of the community who provide voluntary services – such as Justices of the Peace – have their mobile numbers publicly accessible. Some of these people are senior citizens who are often targeted by scammers.

It’s also possible for scammers to access personal data shared with and stored by various companies in today’s digital economy. So, we cannot just say it is always the responsibility of a bank, social media platform or telco to fight scams.

Instead, we need to look at the entire end-to-end pipeline of scams – and hold everyone who is a part of that accountable.

Immediate steps

The federal government’s draft scam prevention framework is open for public consultation for the next three weeks. In the meantime, there are steps people can take now to ensure they are better protected against scammers.

Above everything, be very careful with sharing your personal contact details, such as your phone number or email address. You can also access many resources which will help you be prepared and avoid becoming a scam victim. They include the following quizzes:

• the Australian Signals Directorate helps people get better at spotting scams
• Consumers Affairs Victoria offers to check scam savviness
• the ABC helps people differentiate between scam and legitimate information
• the Special Broadcasting Service News helps people outsmart the scammers .

I am a Justice of Peace in Western Australia.

– ref. Australia’s new scam prevention draft is welcome – but it needs to be broader in scope – https://theconversation.com/australias-new-scam-prevention-draft-is-welcome-but-it-needs-to-be-broader-in-scope-238995

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Collins, Laureate Professor in Nutrition and Dietetics, University of Newcastle

Health at every size (or HAES) is a lifestyle counselling approach that promotes mindful eating and lifestyle behaviours to pursue health and wellness, without focusing on weight loss. Weight loss is seen as a beneficial side effect, rather than a goal.

The Association for Size Diversity and Health first developed the approach in 2003 and revised it in 2013 and 2024. Its current core principles promote:

• minimising weight discrimination
• encouraging body acceptance
• intuitive eating
• enjoyable physical activities.

It also aims to address stigma and discrimination that people in larger bodies may experience when seeking medical care.

Internationally, a range of health professionals have incorporated the HAES approach into their treatment and services. Some organisations, such as Obesity Canada, have included HAES in their guidelines for obesity treatment.

How does it compare with weight-focused treatments?

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of all the research studies published until November 2022 that had used HAES-based programs.

Across 19 scientific papers, we compared the outcomes of people living in larger bodies who used HAES-based programs with:

• conventional weight loss programs (six studies)
• people on waiting lists receiving no treatment at all (six studies)
• groups where people received weekly social support in groups (four studies).

We evaluated the program’s impact on appetite, weight, physical health measurements including cholesterol and blood pressure, and also wellbeing and mental health.

Our analysis found HAES interventions were beneficial in reducing susceptibility to hunger more than other approaches, meaning people had less subjective perceptions of hunger or eating in response to emotions.

However, compared to control interventions, HAES did not show superior results for improving any other physical health outcome – weight loss, blood cholesterol levels, blood pressure – or wellbeing or mental health outcomes.

Given the results to date, the choice about whether to use a HAES-based approach (or not) will depend on each person’s preference, needs and goals.

Don’t get your health advice from influencers

While HAES has been used in clinical practice for many years, some United States and Canadian anti-diet practitioner’s motives have been scrutinised because of their links with processed food companies.

The spotlight was put on the very small number of dietitian “influencers” (roughly 20 from a membership of more than 80,000 dietitians in the US and Canada) promoting “eat what you feel like” and discouraging people from making weight loss attempts, under the banner of HAES. They failed to mention they were being paid to promote products sold by food, beverage or supplement companies.

US author and dietitian Carrie Dennet urges people to not look to influencers for health advice. Instead, seek non-judgemental health care from your GP.

What might treatment look like?

When improving your health is a treatment goal, a good place to start your journey is to have a health check-up with your doctor, as well as to assess your relationship with food.

A healthy relationship with food means being able to eat appropriate amounts and variety of foods to meet your nutritional, health and wellbeing goals. This might include strategies such as:

• keeping a food mood diary
• reflecting on factors that influence your eating
• practising mindful eating
• learning about nutrient needs
• focusing on food enjoyment and the pleasure that comes from preparing, sharing and eating with others.

If you need more help to develop this, ask your doctor to refer you to a health practitioner who can assist.

What if your goal is weight loss?

When it comes to medical nutrition therapy to treat weight-related health conditions, such as high blood pressure and type 2 diabetes, the approach will depend on individual needs and expectations.

Broadly, there are three graded energy intake target levels:

1. a reduced-energy diet where the goal is to lower energy intake by 2,000 to 4,000 kilojoules (kJ) per day by identifying food substitutions, like swapping soft drinks and other sugar-sweetened drinks for zero or diet versions or water.

2. a low-energy diet, which uses an energy intake goal in the range of 4,200-5,000 kJ, up to 7,000 kJ per day depending on an individual’s energy expenditure.

3. the most restricted regime is a very low-energy diet, has an energy intake target less than 2,500 kJ/day, achieved using formulated meal replacement products.

The aim of a very low-energy diet is to facilitate rapid weight loss when this is essential to improve health acutely such as poorly controlled type 2 diabetes. Such a diet should be used under supervision by your doctor and dietitian.

When selecting an initial strategy, seek a balance between energy intake goals and your ability to stick to it. Your approach may change over time as your health needs change.

If you need personalised nutrition advice, ask for a referral to an accredited practising dietitian. The register of service providers though Dietitians Australia allows you to view their expertise and location.

Regardless of whether your practitioner uses a HAES approach or not, your health providers should always treat you with respect and address your personal health and wellbeing.

Clare Collins AO is a Laureate Professor in Nutrition and Dietetics at the University of Newcastle, NSW and a Hunter Medical Research Institute (HMRI) affiliated researcher. She is a National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Leadership Fellow and has received research grants from NHMRC, ARC, MRFF, HMRI, Diabetes Australia, Heart Foundation, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, nib foundation, Rijk Zwaan Australia, WA Dept. Health, Meat and Livestock Australia, and Greater Charitable Foundation. She has consulted to SHINE Australia, Novo Nordisk, Quality Bakers, the Sax Institute, Dietitians Australia and the ABC. She was a team member conducting systematic reviews to inform the 2013 Australian Dietary Guidelines update, the Heart Foundation evidence reviews on meat and dietary patterns and current Co-Chair of the Guidelines Development Advisory Committee for Clinical Practice Guidelines for Treatment of Obesity.

Erin Clarke is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the University of Newcastle, and an affiliated researcher with Hunter Medical Research Institute (HMRI). She is also an Accredited Practising Dietitian working in private practice. She is currently supported by L/Prof Clare Collins’ National Health and Medical Research Council Leadership Fellowship. She has received funding from the University of Newcastle, HMRI, Hunter New England Health and has an industry grant with Honeysuckle Health Pty Limited. She also holds positions on the Nutrition Society of Australia Council as Co-Chair of the Newcastle Regional Group, she is an early career representative for the HMRI Food and Nutrition Research Program and the University of Newcastle College of Health, Medicine and Wellbeing ECR Research Sub-Committee. She is also a member of the Nutrition Society of Australia Precision and Personalised Nutrition Special Interest Group and the NSW Cardiovascular Research Network.

Jordan Stanford is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Nutrition and Dietetics at the University of Newcastle, NSW, and an affiliated researcher with the Hunter Medical Research Institute (HMRI). She is currently supported by L/Prof Clare Collin’s National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Leadership Fellowship. In addition, she has previously consulted for Almonds Australia. Jordan is a member of the Nutrition Society of Australia (NSA) Newcastle branch, the NSA Special Interest Group in Precision and Personalised Nutrition, and serves as the Chair of the Precision and Personalised Nutrition Community of Practice.

Maria Gomez Martin is a Dietitian and early career researcher at the School of Health Sciences, University of Newcastle, NSW, and is affiliated with the Hunter Medical Research Institute (HMRI). She is supported by Clare Collins’ National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Leadership Fellowship. Maria is also a member of the Newcastle branch of the Nutrition Society of Australia (NSA) and the NSW Cardiovascular Research Network.

– ref. What is ‘health at every size’ lifestyle counselling? How does it compare with weight-focused treatments? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-health-at-every-size-lifestyle-counselling-how-does-it-compare-with-weight-focused-treatments-234376

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy Neal, Senior lecturer in Economics / Institute for Climate Risk and Response, UNSW Sydney

The destruction of nature is a global crisis. Establishing protected areas of forest is a common policy governments use to tackle the problem.

Indeed most countries, including Australia, have signed a global agreement to protect 30% of land by 2030. But to what extent do protected areas, such as national parks and nature reserves, actually preserve forests?

My new research examined this question. The findings are the first global-scale estimate of where protected areas are succeeding and failing.

Alarmingly, I found protected areas fail to prevent forest loss in many parts of the world. Clearly, we must make these areas more effective to conserve the remaining diversity of Earth’s plants and animals.

Probing protected areas

Forests are often destroyed through human activity such as logging with chainsaws or the deliberate use of fire. The aim is usually to extract timber, or to clear land for agriculture, roads, housing or other human purposes.

Natural bushfires can also damage forests. In some cases, ecosystems are so badly burnt they cannot recover. There’s a link to human activity here too, because human-caused climate change is leading to more severe, frequent, and wider-ranging bushfires in places such as Australia.

I wanted to know how well protected areas prevent forests from being lost.

To work this out, I first took a map that covers the precise boundaries of about 300,000 of the world’s protected areas. I overlaid it with high-resolution satellite data from between 2001 and 2022 showing forest loss just inside and just outside these boundaries.

This method assumed if forest loss was much higher just outside the boundary of a protected area than inside, the protection was working.

Conversely, if forest loss was relatively similar inside and outside the boundary, that shows the protection did not have a strong effect.

This idea can apply even if forest loss on both sides of the boundary is low – because it suggests the area is remote or otherwise not sought-after for human activity. In these cases, we have no evidence that protection is effective, because the forest probably would have been retained even if the protection wasn’t in place.

What I found

I found protected areas prevent an average 30% of forest loss that would have occurred if the policy was not in place. Forest loss occurred in protected areas in all countries – including Australia – but less frequently than in unprotected forest.

The 30% figure is discouragingly low. But it does indicate protected areas are effective to some degree. And effectiveness varies significantly across countries, as the below graphic shows.

The policy is almost completely ineffective in many countries, including Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Bolivia, Venezuela, Madagascar, Russia and Gabon. Several of these countries house vast amounts of the planet’s remaining biodiversity. Most, but not all, are developing economies.

In the case of forest loss due to fire, protected areas in advanced economies were also ineffective in some cases.

Australia is a good example. Protected areas here were fairly effective from 2001 to 2018. But the horrific 2019–20 Black Summer fires burned indiscriminately through large swathes of protected forest.

In better news, protected areas were highly effective in some areas, such as New Zealand, Canada, Scandinavia and the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania).

What this all means

My research illustrates the large improvements needed in many protected areas across the globe to genuinely conserve forests. More research is also needed to understand the best policies to achieve this, before it’s too late.

Developing countries clearly need help to protect their forests. Corruption, political instability, and a lack of resources can make it difficult for governments in these nations to enforce forest conservation laws. Government indifference can also play a role.

How do we turn this around? Schemes such as REDD+, which pays local communities to conserve forest that may otherwise be cleared, could be scaled up.

Foreign aid for forest conservation, from countries such as Australia, can also help. And non-government organisations such as African Parks can put rangers on the ground to help patrol and enforce the integrity of protected areas.

Technology such as real-time deforestation alerts from satellite data can also help.

My findings also highlight the threat climate change poses to forest ecosystems in Australia and elsewhere. Obviously, fire does not respect the boundaries of a national park or other protected area.

So yes, it’s great to see governments around the world signing up to protect 30% of their land. But my work shows attention is needed to make sure those protected areas are working.

Timothy Neal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. National parks and other protected areas often fail to conserve Earth’s forests, research finds – https://theconversation.com/national-parks-and-other-protected-areas-often-fail-to-conserve-earths-forests-research-finds-237567

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yvette Grant, PhD (Dance) Candidate and Dance History Tutor, The University of Melbourne

Christopher Wheeldon and The Australian Ballet’s Oscar, which had its world premiere in Melbourne on September 13, is based on the story of Oscar Wilde: the writer, the man, the protester.

Combining key life events with two of Wilde’s well-known works – The Nightingale and the Rose, and The Picture of Dorian Gray – Wheeldon has created a complex and highly cinematic ballet about a literary genius who was also a gay martyr.

Wheeldon has also delivered on something I think has been long overdue: a gay ballet.

Act one: memories of happier days

The first act begins with Wilde’s trial and conviction for committing sexual acts with men.

From his prison bed, we see the memories of love that flood his mind. We see him happy with his wife Constance and their children, and attending literary and social occasions. We see memories of his favourite female actors, as well as his introduction to his best friend Robbie Ross and the secret world of gay men.

These stories are segmented; the scenes cut from one to another, as well as to the unfolding tale of Wilde’s nightingale and her futile sacrifice and death for love.

These are the mixed-up memories of a man facing the horrific consequences of standing up for a forbidden love. In them we see a world where Wilde was successful and happy. In his iconic suit and waistcoat, he is the Oscar Wilde we know.

But this is a man only beginning his prison time.

Act two: the horror sinks in

In the second act we see Wilde deep into his two-year sentence, lying on the floor of his cell. Isolation, malnutrition and hard labour have destroyed him both physically and emotionally. He is remembering his relationship with Lord Alfred Douglas that ultimately led to his conviction and imprisonment.

Again, the scenes are cut and interspersed with other scenes from the trial, of his family, his friend Ross and the nightingale. They are also set next to pieces of the story of Dorian Gray, in which Wilde and Douglas at times replace Dorian the man and Dorian the decaying portrait.

In act two, Wilde is a broken man. The memory scenes are seedier, darker, and more debauched and threatening. Sex largely replaces the romantic and platonic love of the first act. We see dimly lit illegal gay sex scenes and cavorting in cabaret clubs. Wilde stumbles through the act in his dirty dark green prison uniform.

An ‘out’ ballet

Wheeldon and The Australian Ballet artistic director David Hallberg have described Oscar as the first “out” gay ballet.

In act one, a near-kiss prepared us for what was to come in act two, two men kissing on the ballet stage. In the program, Wheeldon states both he and Hallberg, as gay men, felt a gay ballet narrative was overdue and that the time was right to make one.

But what makes Oscar a gay ballet? Is it the heroic narrative about an historic gay figure? Is it two men kissing for perhaps the first time on an Australian ballet stage? Is it because it is made by gay men who themselves have called it a gay ballet?

Yes, it’s all of these. But it’s also more than that.

As Hannah McCann and Whitney Monaghan suggest in their book Queer Theory Now, the term “queer” is used to describe not just the slipperiness of categories and boundaries of gender and sexuality, but also of more general categories and boundaries.

In Oscar, there is a slipperiness of the category of ballet. The movement vocabulary in the ballet draws from multiple forms of dance. Music theatre, for instance, has a strong presence in one courtroom scene in which chairs and benches are being manoeuvred in formations.

There is classical ballet, such as with the pas de deux between Oscar and his wife. There are contemporary lyrical pieces, including Ross’s solo which opens the second act. There is a touch of Russian constructivism with geometric arm shapes, mechanised jerky movement and fixed mask-like facial expressions.

There is even a little vaudeville, with cancan and cross-dressing – as well as some sassy Balanchine-esque moments of contemporary ballet with slides and swings, strong geometries and slightly cocked hips.

This melange applies equally to Joby Talbot’s score. It moves from classical, to jazzed up, to recorded sounds, to techno.

Jean-Marc Puissant’s costumes also follow the trend. While traditional rich Victorian clothes are worn in the historical scenes, the costumes in the nightingale story are brightly coloured and flamboyant, some with Wilde’s handwriting printed into the fabric. Wilde’s simple prison uniform is much like pyjamas.

Oscar is a pastiche of forms of dance, music and design unapologetically and abruptly juxtaposed across a splintered narrative that cuts like a piece of cinema from one scene to the next. It is Swan Lake meets Baz Luhrmann, Moulin Rouge meets the Brothers Grimm.

At the start of opening night, Hallberg warned the audience they might be shocked. Perhaps some were, but the standing ovation at the end suggested this was a much-loved and welcomed ballet.

Oscar is showing at the Regent Theatre, Melbourne, until September 24 and at the Sydney Opera House from November 8 to 23.

Yvette Grant does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Oscar: the tragedy and beauty of Wilde’s life, and an historic moment on the ballet stage – https://theconversation.com/oscar-the-tragedy-and-beauty-of-wildes-life-and-an-historic-moment-on-the-ballet-stage-235649