Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

I previously wrote about the Senate the morning after the election. About half the Senate is elected at each House of Representatives election. Those up for election include six senators out of 12 for every state and all four territory senators. So 40 of the 76 senators were up for election.

State senators elected at this election will start their six-year terms on July 1, while territory senators are tied to the term of the lower house.

At a double dissolution election, all senators are up for election, and this truncates the terms of senators. With Labor and the Greens so dominant at this election, the Coalition may try a double dissolution if they win the next election.

Senators are elected by proportional representation in their jurisdictions with preferences. At a half-Senate election, with six senators in each state up for election, a quota is one-seventh of the vote, or 14.3%. For the territories, a quota is one-third or 33.3%. Half a quota on primary votes (7.1% in a state) is usually enough to give a party a reasonable chance of election.

It’s likely to take at least another three weeks to get final Senate results. All votes need to be data entered into a computer system, then a button is pressed to electronically distribute preferences. It’s only after this button press that we know final outcomes and margins.

At the 2019 election (the last time these state senators were up for election), the Coaliition won 17 of the 36 state senators, Labor 11, the Greens six, One Nation one and Jacqui Lambie one. The right won by 18–17, with one for Lambie.

Queensland’s senators split 4–2 to the right, Tasmania 3–2 to the left with one for Lambie and the other states were tied at 3–3.

The four senators from the ACT and Northern Territory were last up for election in 2022. At that election, left-wing independent David Pocock and Labor won both ACT seats, while the NT went one Labor, one Country Liberal Party (CLP).

At this election, it’s likely Labor will gain a senator in every mainland state at the expense of the Coalition, while the Greens, One Nation, Lambie and Pocock will hold their existing seats.

The most likely outcome of this half-Senate election is 18 Labor out of 40 (up five), 13 Coalition (down five), six Greens (steady), and one each for One Nation, Lambie and Pocock (all steady). This would give the left a 25–14 win with one for Lambie.

In 2022, the 36 state senators (not up for election in 2025) were 14 Coalition, 13 Labor, six Greens and one each for One Nation, the United Australia Party (UAP) and Tammy Tyrrell. During the last term Lidia Thorpe defected from the Greens, Fatima Payman from Labor and Tyrrell from the Jacqui Lambie Network.

If Labor wins 18 seats at this half-Senate election, they will have 30 total senators out of 76, the Coalition 27, the Greens 11, One Nation two, and one each for Pocock, Lambie, the UAP, Thorpe, Payman and Tyrrell. Labor and the Greens alone would have 41 of the 76 senators, above the 39 needed for a majority.

Counting Thorpe and Payman with the left, and the UAP with the right, the left would have an overall 44–30 majority with two others (Lambie and Tyrrell).

National Senate votes and a state by state breakdown

With 74% of enrolled voters counted nationally for the Senate, Labor has 35.5% of Senate votes (up 5.4% since 2022), the Coalition 29.9% (down 4.4%), the Greens 11.7% (down 0.9%), One Nation 5.6% (up 1.3%), Legalise Cannabis 3.4% and Trumpet of Patriots (ToP) 2.6%.

The national House primary votes are currently 34.7% Labor, 32.2% Coalition, 11.8% Greens, 6.3% One Nation and 1.9% ToP. Usually major parties get a lower Senate vote than a House vote owing to more parties who run in the Senate. I believe Labor is benefiting in the Senate from the lack of a viable Teal option.

In very late counting for both the House and Senate, the Greens usually gain at the Coalition’s expense as absent votes that are counted late are poor for the Coalition and good for the Greens. This would provide a further boost to Labor’s chances of gaining five senators.

In New South Wales, with 79% of enrolled counted, Labor has 2.65 quotas, the Coalition 2.08, the Greens 0.78, One Nation 0.42, Legalise Cannabis 0.23 and ToP 0.16. Labor’s third candidate is 0.23 quotas ahead of One Nation and should win.

In Victoria, with 71% of enrolled counted, Labor has 2.44 quotas, the Coalition 2.20, the Greens 0.88, One Nation 0.31, Legalise Cannabis 0.25, ToP 0.17, Family First 0.13 and Victorian Socialists 0.11. One Nation has the best chance to win outside Queensland, but Socialists’ preferences will flow strongly to Labor.

In Queensland, with 71% of enrolled counted, Labor has 2.16 quotas, the Liberal National Party 2.15, the Greens 0.74, One Nation 0.49, Gerard Rennick 0.34, ToP 0.25 and Legalise Cannabis 0.24. Labor will win two, the LNP two, the Greens one and One Nation will probably win the final seat.

In Western Australia, with 68% of enrolled counted, Labor has 2.57 quotas, the Liberals 1.83, the Greens 0.92, One Nation 0.40, Legalise Cannabis 0.28 and the Nationals 0.24. The Liberals will soak up right-wing preferences that would otherwise go to One Nation, so Labor should win the last seat.

In South Australia, with 78% of enrolled counted, Labor has 2.70 quotas, the Liberals 1.94, the Greens 0.89, One Nation 0.37, ToP 0.20 and Legalise Cannabis 0.19. Labor’s third candidate has a 0.33 quota lead over One Nation.

In Tasmania, with 84% of enrolled counted, Labor has 2.49 quotas, the Liberals 1.66, the Greens 1.14, Lambie 0.51, One Nation 0.36 and Legalise Cannabis 0.23. It’s likely Tasmania will be a status quo result: two Labor, two Liberals, one Green and one Lambie. If this occurs, Tasmania would be the only state without a loss for the Coalition.

In the ACT, with 79% of enrolled counted, Pocock has easily retained with 1.19 quotas and Labor is certain to win the second seat with 0.95 quotas. The Liberals won just 17.2% or 0.52 quotas and the Greens 0.23 quotas.

Turnout is relatively low in the NT. With 57% of enrolled counted, Labor has 1.03 quotas, the CLP 1.02, the Greens 0.33 and One Nation 0.24. Labor and the CLP will hold their two seats.

Close seats in the House

Since my last update on Wednesday, the ABC has called Melbourne, Menzies, Fremantle and Bendigo for Labor, taking Labor’s seat total to 91 of 150. The Coalition has won 40 seats, the Greens zero and all Others ten, with nine seats remaining undecided.

In the undecided seats, Labor is the clear favourite in Bullwinkel and Calwell, and currently just behind in Bean and Longman but with a good chance of overturning those deficits. The Liberals are the favourites in Flinders, Monash and Bradfield, the Greens are favourites to hold one seat (Ryan) and Teal Monique Ryan should hold Kooyong.

Read more:
Explore the new House of Representatives

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Labor likely to gain 5 senators, cementing the left’s Senate dominance – https://theconversation.com/labor-likely-to-gain-5-senators-cementing-the-lefts-senate-dominance-256207

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Glyn Davis, Anthony Albanese’s hand-picked Secretary of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, will leave the post on June 16.

Albanese paid tribute to Davis for rebuilding the public service.

“One of the key priorities of our government’s first term was rebuilding the capacity of the Australian Public Service,” the PM said in a statement.

“This included rebuilding the confidence of people who worked in the APS, making sure they understood that the government valued their ideas, respected their hard work and recognised their vital role in our democracy.”

Albanese said Davis had “worked calmly and steadily to reassert the purpose of the public service”.

He described Davis as “a man of unique strengths: an intellectual who embraces the practical, an institutionalist who champions reform.

“To his enduring credit, he leaves a great national institution in far better shape than he found it, to the benefit of all Australians.”

Davis, who has written extensively on public policy, had a long career in academia before taking the PM&C post. He was vice-chancellor of the University of Melbourne, where he undertook major reform.

Earlier, he had served the Queensland Labor governments of Wayne Goss and Peter Beattie.

His wife, Margaret Gardner, is former vice-chancellor of Monash University, and presently is Governor of Victoria.

Among the Albanese government’s public service reforms has been stripping back the use of consultants, bringing more work in-house.

The public service became a frontline issue at the election with the opposition promising a big cut to its size.

Davis said on Friday that he planned to take “a break, some time to think and write, some more involvement in the arts, and a moment to reflect on how best to contribute”.

He remains a visiting professor in the Blavatnik School at Oxford and hopes to spend some time there. “And I will get involved in some research projects at Melbourne also.” But he was not leaving one role for another, he added.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Glyn Davis to quit as the prime minister’s top public servant – https://theconversation.com/glyn-davis-to-quit-as-the-prime-ministers-top-public-servant-255961

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew King, Associate Professor in Climate Science, ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather, The University of Melbourne

This year, for many Australians, it feels like summer never left. The sunny days and warm nights have continued well into autumn. Even now, in May, it’s still unusually warm.

Much of the southern half of the continent is experiencing both unseasonable warmth and dry conditions. This is linked to persistent high atmospheric pressure (called “blocking”) to the south and southeast of Australia.

While temperatures will fall across southern Australia as we approach the winter solstice, early indications are that this winter will be a warm one. Rainfall predictions are less certain.

The extra warmth we’ve experienced raises obvious questions about the influence of human-caused climate change. The warming signal is clear and it’s a sign of things to come.

A warm and dry autumn for many

March and April brought unseasonal heat to much of Australia.

March was widely hot, with temperatures several degrees above normal across much of the country. But April’s heat was largely restricted to the southeast.

Victoria had its warmest April on record, and parts of the state experienced temperatures more than 3°C above normal across both March and April.

Temperatures normally fall quite quickly over the southeast of Australia during April and May as the days shorten and the continent’s interior cools. But this year, southern Australia was unusually warm at the start of May. Some locations experienced days with maximum temperatures more than 10°C above normal for the time of year.

Records were broken in Hobart and parts of Melbourne, which had their warmest May nights since observations began.

While Queensland and the New South Wales coast have had very wet spells, including downpours from Tropical Cyclone Alfred at the start of March, other parts of Australia have been quite dry.

The area between Adelaide and Melbourne has been exceptionally dry. A drought is unfolding in the region after a severe lack of rainfall, with deficits stretching back over the past year or so. Western Tasmania is also suffering from a severe lack of rainfall since the start of autumn, although welcome rain fell in the past week.

And it’s not just on land that unusual heat has been observed. The seas around Australia have been warmer than normal, causing severe coral bleaching to the west and east of the continent, harmful algal blooms and other ecosystem disruptions.

Blocking highs largely to blame

A high pressure system has dominated over the south and southeast of Australia over the past few months.

High pressure in the Tasman Sea can sometimes get stuck there for a few days. This leads to what’s known as “blocking”, when the usual passage of weather systems moving from west to east is obstructed. This can lock in weather patterns for several days or even a week.

Repeated blocking occurred this autumn. As winds move anticlockwise around high pressure systems in the Southern Hemisphere, blocking highs in the Tasman Sea can bring moist, onshore winds to the New South Wales and Queensland coasts, increasing rainfall. But such high pressure systems also bring drier conditions for the interior of the southeast and much of Victoria and South Australia.

Often, these high pressure systems also bring northerly winds to Victoria, and this can cause warmer conditions across much of the state.

High pressure systems also tend to bring more clear and sunny conditions, which increases daytime temperatures in particular. Air in high pressure systems moves down towards the surface and this process causes warming, too.

Australia sits between the Pacific and Indian Oceans and is subject to their variability, so we often look there to help explain what’s happening with Australia’s climate. In autumn though, our climate influences, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, are less active and have weaker relationships with Australian climate than at other times of year. Neither of these climate influences is in a strong phase at the moment.

A warm winter on the cards

One big question is how long the heat will last. In parts of southeast Australia, including Melbourne, average temperatures drop quickly at this time of year as we approach the winter solstice.

However, the seasonal outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology points to a high likelihood of a relatively warm winter.

Australians rarely escape having a winter without any significant cold spells, but the long-range forecast suggests we should anticipate above-normal temperatures on average. Both daytime maximum temperatures and nighttime minimum temperatures are expected to be above average generally this winter.

Global warming is here

The elephant in the room is climate change. Human-caused climate change is increasing autumn temperatures and the frequency of late season heat events. As greenhouse gas emissions continue at a record pace, expect continued warming and a greater chance of autumn heatwaves in future.

The effect of climate change on rainfall is less clear though. For the vast majority of Australia, there is high uncertainty as to whether autumn will become wetter or drier as the world warms.

Andrew King receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather and the National Environmental Science Program.

– ref. It’s almost winter. Why is Australia still so hot? – https://theconversation.com/its-almost-winter-why-is-australia-still-so-hot-256071

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dean J. Miller, Senior Lecturer, Appleton Institute, HealthWise Research Group, CQUniversity Australia

Have you ever felt an unexpected sense of calm while walking barefoot on grass? Or noticed your stress begin to fade as you stood ankle deep in the ocean? If so, you may have unknowingly “grounded” yourself to the earth.

Grounding, also known as earthing, is the practice of making direct physical contact with the Earth’s surface. Our ancestors embraced this trend without knowing it. But with the invention of indoor homes, footpaths, roads, and even shoes, we have become less physically connected with the earth.

Grounding has been suggested to have a number of benefits, such as improving mood, and reducing stress and pain. But overall, there’s limited conclusive evidence on the benefits of grounding.

Somewhat ironically, the concept of grounding in 2025 is heavily influenced by technology, rather than getting out into nature. Consumers are being hit with social media reels promoting a range of technologies that ground us, and improve our health.

Among the most common are promises of improved sleep with the use of a grounding sheet or mat. But is this just another TikTok trend, or could these products really help us get a better night’s sleep?

Bringing the outdoors in

The human body is conductive, which means it can exchange electricity with Earth and artificial sources, such as electronic devices or objects. (Sometimes, this exchange can result in an electric or static shock.)

Proponents of grounding claim the practice reconnects “the conductive human body to the Earth’s natural and subtle surface electric charge”.

They credit this process with physiological and psychological benefits (but again, the evidence is limited).

Read more:
Why do I get static shocks from everyday objects? Is it my shoes?

Grounding technologies can vary in type (for example, under-desk foot mats, mattress toppers and bed sheets) but all are designed to provide a path for electric charges to flow between your body and the earth.

The bottom prong you see in your three-prong wall socket is a “ground” or “earth” terminal. It provides a direct connection to earth via your building’s wiring, diverting excess or unsafe voltage into the ground. This protects you and your devices from potential electrical faults.

Grounding technology uses this terminal as a pathway for the proposed electrical exchange between you and earth, while in the comfort of your home.

Could grounding improve your sleep?

The research in this area is still emerging.

A 2025 study from Korea recruited 60 participants, gave half of them a grounding mat, and gave the other half a visually identical mat that didn’t have grounding technology. The researchers used a “double-blind” protocol, meaning neither the participants nor the researchers knew which participants were given grounding mats.

All participants wore sleep trackers and were asked to use their mat (that is, sit or lie on it) for six hours per day. The researchers found that after 31 days, participants in the grounding mat group slept longer on average (as measured by their sleep trackers) than those in the control group.

The researchers also used questionnaires to collect measures of insomnia, sleep quality, daytime sleepiness, and stress. After 31 days, participants in both groups improved on all measures.

There were no differences between the grounded and ungrounded groups for sleep quality, daytime sleepiness, and stress. And while grounded participants showed significantly lower insomnia severity after the intervention, this difference was also present at the start of the study. So it’s unclear if grounding had a tangible impact on sleep.

In another double-blind study, published in 2022, researchers in Taiwan examined the effectiveness of using grounding mats to improve sleep among patients with Alzheimer’s disease. The findings indicated that spending 30 minutes on a grounding mat five times per week resulted in improved sleep quality.

While previous research has suggested using grounding technologies may lead to improvements in mood, no differences were seen in measures of anxiety and depression in this study.

Grounding for gains?

Grounding technology has also been touted as having other benefits, such as reducing pain and inflammation.

A 2019 study found participants who slept on a grounding mat after intense exercise felt less sore and showed lower levels of inflammation in their blood compared to those who were ungrounded.

Grounding after a workout may help you feel better and recover faster, but it’s still unclear whether and how grounding affects long-term training results or fitness gains.

Add to cart?

So should you cash in on your favourite influencer’s discount code and grab a grounding mat? At the risk of spouting a common cliche of cautious scientists, our answer is that we don’t know yet.

What we do know is the existing research, albeit emerging, has shown no evidence grounding technology can negatively affect your sleep or recovery after exercise. So if you love your grounding mat or grounding sheet, or want to see if grounding works for you, feel free to give it a go.

Keep in mind, grounding products can retail for anywhere from around A$30 to $300 or more.

On the other hand, grounding on the grass in the great outdoors is free. While there’s limited evidence that grounding outdoors can improve sleep, spending time in outdoor light may itself benefit sleep, regulate circadian rhythms, and improve mood.

Finally, while grounding could be an interesting strategy to try, if you’re experiencing ongoing problems with your sleep, or suspect you may have a sleep disorder, the first step should be reaching out to a medical professional, such as your GP.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What is grounding and could it improve my sleep? Here’s the science behind this TikTok trend – https://theconversation.com/what-is-grounding-and-could-it-improve-my-sleep-heres-the-science-behind-this-tiktok-trend-253347

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Darius von Guttner Sporzynski, Historian, Australian Catholic University

When Robert Francis Prevost appeared on the loggia of St Peter’s Basilica as Pope Leo XIV, he set three precedents.

He is the first pope from North America, the first Augustinian to occupy the throne of Peter, and the first native English-speaker to do so since Adrian IV in the 12th century.

Pope Leo XIV greeted Rome and the world with a simple benediction: “peace be with all of you”.

In choosing a blessing that stressed concord – and in issuing it in Italian and Spanish – he signalled both pastoral directness and cultural breadth.

A Chicago childhood and academic rigour

Prevost was born in Chicago in 1955.

Raised in the working-class suburb of Dolton, he served as an altar boy and attended St Augustine Seminary High School. He studied a bachelor of science at Villanova University, and earned a doctoral degree in canon law at the Angelicum in Rome.

Prevost entered the Augustinian order in 1977, professed solemn vows in 1981 and was ordained in 1982.

For Augustinians, virtue lies not in poverty for its own sake, but in the radical sharing of goods: community precedes individual achievement.

There are three pillars: interiority, the practical love of neighbour, and a relentless search for truth. This framework would guide Prevost’s missionary work, and his call for unity and peace.

Prevost has administered communities in more than 50 countries, but he first arrived as a missionary in northern Peru in 1985. Over the next decade he taught canon law, ran a seminary in Trujillo, judged marriage cases and led a fledgling parish on Lima’s urban fringe.

The experience sharpened his awareness of informal employment, extractive industries and migration – concerns that echo the Rerum novarum , an open letter issued by his namesake Leo XIII in 1891. They remain visible in Prevost’s social priorities today.

In 2015, he was appointed Bishop of Chiclayo, Peru, and, in 2023, prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops, effectively placing him in charge of vetting episcopal appointments world-wide.

What’s in a name?

Created cardinal in September 2023 and elevated to the rank of cardinal-bishop of Albano in February 2025, Prevost entered the conclave with a reputation for quiet competence, linguistic dexterity (he speaks five languages fluently) and unspectacular holiness.

The electors turned to him on the fourth ballot. An hour later he greeted the city and the world as Pope Leo XIV, first in Italian then in Spanish: a bilingual gesture honouring his Italian American Chicago roots and his Peruvian citizenship.

Leo XIV’s choice of name is a programmatic signal. By invoking examples of Rome’s protector Leo the Great (pope from 440–61) and the great social teacher Leo XIII (1878–1903), the new Pontiff intimates he will draw upon their precedent.

His substantive focus will remain squarely on the challenges of 2025: translating Augustinian communal spirituality into governance, extending the social teaching inaugurated by Leo XIII, and mediating polarised factions.

The memory of his Leo predecessors functions as a compass rather than a map, orienting a pontificate whose horizon is the digital, migratory and climatic upheavals of the 21st century.

We can expect where Leo the Great entered dialogue, Leo XIV will offer diplomacy. Where Leo XIII defended trade-union rights and attacked exploitative capitalism, Leo XIV must address labour, climate disruption and forced displacement.

If Leo XIII gave Catholicism its first systematic response to industrial modernity, Leo XIV may be tasked with articulating an Augustinian vision for the digital Anthropocene: a view of humanity as a pilgrim community, bound by shared love rather than algorithmic preference-profiling.

Of one heart

The opening sentence of the Rule of Saint Augustine is “be of one mind and heart on the way to God”.

The order’s stress on interior prayer rather than external activism complements Leo XIV’s preference for silent Eucharistic adoration over elaborate ceremony. The Augustinian tradition of learning aligns with his own scholarly instinct.

Consistent with Francis, Leo XIV has condemned abortion and euthanasia. He has criticised hard-line immigration policies in the United States. He holds the line only men can be deacons. In a 2012 address, he pointed to media normalisation of “alternative families comprised of same-sex partners”.

The combination marks him as a centrist prepared to defend doctrinal boundaries while pressing assertively on social justice, climate action and the governance transparency that Francis began but did not finish.

Challenges ahead

Leo XIV inherits a fragmented Church. Traditionalists fear doctrinal drift, while progressives want accelerated reform of governance, liturgy and the role of women.

His Augustinian commitment to shared discernment could provide a mediating structure. Meanwhile geopolitical crises demand renewed Holy See diplomacy and Vatican finances still run unsustainable deficits.

Ultimately, Leo XIV embodies a living dialogue between tradition and modernity.

Whether he succeeds will depend on his capacity to translate the Augustinian Order’s ancient ideal of one heart, one mind into structures that protect the vulnerable worker, the displaced migrant and the wounded planet.

Yet his formation, intellect and record of bridge-building suggest he understands the Church’s credibility now rests where it did in 1891 under Leo XIII: in that social charity and theological clarity are not rivals, but partners on the road to God.

Like Leo XIII, Leo XIV approaches the world not as an enemy to be refuted but as a moral terrain to be cultivated. His pontificate must confront the ecological, technological and migratory questions of our age.

His inaugural plea for peace hints at an integral vision in which social justice, ecological stewardship and human fraternity intersect.

Whether he can translate that vision into institutional reform and global moral leadership remains to be seen.

By invoking the heritage of Leo XIII, Leo XIV has set the compass of his papacy. It points toward a Church intellectually serious, socially committed and pastorally close: one speaking anew to workers in Amazon warehouses, migrants in detention camps, students in schools, refugees in the Sahel and young people navigating the gig economy.

If he succeeds, the name he chose will read as prophetic promise, linking 1891’s clarion call for justice with the uncharted demands of 2025 and beyond.

Darius von Guttner Sporzynski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘Peace be with all of you’: how Pope Leo XIV embodies a living dialogue between tradition and modernity – https://theconversation.com/peace-be-with-all-of-you-how-pope-leo-xiv-embodies-a-living-dialogue-between-tradition-and-modernity-256084

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lily Bentley, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, School of the Environment, The University of Queensland

From the enormous blue whale to the delicate monarch butterfly, animals of all shapes and sizes migrate across the globe. These migrations connect distant habitats, from the tropics to the poles. They are also crucial to both the health of species making these epic journeys, and the habitats where they live.

It is hard to visualise these epic, globe-spanning journeys and the habitats they connect. But an interactive map we developed, alongside an international team of scientists from the University of Queensland and Duke University and in partnership with the Global Ocean Biodiversity Initiative, can help.

Known as Mico (Migratory Connectivity in the Ocean), this map is a valuable conservation tool that demonstrates just how connected our oceans are due to animal migration. It is freely available here, and has just been updated with our newly published research in Nature Communications. This research synthesises thousands of records of more than 100 species of birds, mammals, turtles and fish that connect almost 2,000 crucial habitats.

An evolving science

Humans have contemplated animal migrations for millennia. Representations of and theories about these journeys are observable in Stone Age rock art and the writings of Ancient Greek philosophers. Indigenous peoples and local communities have also long relied upon and understood the seasonal movements of culturally important species.

But for much of human history, identifying specific destinations of migratory species was an inexact science. This has started to change in recent decades, as scientists have developed and deployed animal-borne satellite tags which can record and transmit an animal’s location as it migrates.

These tags can be very expensive to deploy and collect data from. They also require enormous investments of time and expertise. But they are crucial if we are to understand where migratory species go when they’re outside the range of normal human observations.

The journeys of migratory species also span multiple jurisdictions. This means cooperation between countries is required to ensure they are protected.

For example, many albatross species receive significant conservation investment at their nesting islands within national jurisdictions. But they are at high risk of being incidentally caught and killed or injured in longline fisheries operating in international waters.

Synthesising more than 1,300 studies

For our new study, we reviewed the literature on the movements of marine migratory species from 1990 to 2017. We synthesised the start and end points of migrations reported in more than 1,300 individual studies. These studies covered 109 marine species.

This information was then aggregated to remove duplicate data and combine sites very near to each other (on a global scale) into one “metasite” to make it easier to display. Each data point is also linked to the study from which it comes. This means you can always find the work of the original team who tagged those animals.

In synthesising the studies in this manner, we created an interactive map and downloadable dataset estimating the measured migratory connections of the global ocean.

If you look up the green turtle map, for example, you can see just how much information there is for this highly-studied species. The red links show many tracked movements from breeding to foraging areas within each ocean basin.

Sperm whales, on the other hand, are globally distributed – you can toggle on the species distribution in the top menu. But we only have information about connectivity for animals in the Atlantic and east Pacific oceans. You can see these sites on the map, mostly in North America and in the Mediterranean.

Because researchers are yet to track animals in all parts of the globe, the map is missing some information about the migratory movements of key species in particular areas. We are planning updates as more information becomes available.

A tool for conservation

This summary of migratory information is important for improving global conservation.

Scientists have published many papers on migrations, both of single populations or species, and combining data about taxonomy from several different sources. But these can be difficult to keep up with for managers or policymakers who may not have time to engage with every single piece of emerging scientific literature.

Our information can help identify stakeholders when planning or managing a conservation project. Many of these stakeholders may be across an ocean basin or even in a different hemisphere.

The scientific synthesis we provide can help countries take more informed actions to achieve the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework’s target of conserving a “well-connected” 30% of terrestrial, inland water, coastal and marine areas by 2030. This is particularly true in the high seas, as a mechanism to implement protected areas outside of national waters is developed under the soon-to-be-ratified High Seas Treaty.

In addition to sharing the enormous scope of work that has been conducted on the migration of large ocean animals over the last decades, our work has already fed into policy processes.

For example, it has been used by seven United Nations conventions or organisations. We hope to formalise the role of our map as a node of the Convention on Migratory Species’ Atlas of Animal Migration at their next meeting in March 2026.

More broadly, we hope this work will support better international collaboration to conserve our incredible oceanic migrants for years to come.

Lily Bentley receives funding from a Queensland-Smithsonian Fellowship on understanding migratory connectivity of seabirds in the Great Barrier Reef. She has presented on the work discussed at policy fora including the Conference of Parties (COP) for the Convention on Biological Diversity and the Convention on Migratory Species. She works on the Migratory Connectivity in the Ocean (MiCO; mico.eco) system, which has been previously supported by the German International Climate Initiative (IKI) and UNEP-WCMC.

Autumn-Lynn Harrison directs the Smithsonian’s National Zoo & Conservation Biology Institute’s Migratory Connectivity Project, supported by a gift to the Smithsonian by ConocoPhillips. She is also a Partner Investigator on an Australian Research Council Discovery Grant for understanding migratory connectivity in the ocean.

Daniel Dunn receives funding to support the development of the Migratory Connectivity in the Ocean (MICO) system from a grant to the Global Ocean Biodiversity Initiative (GOBI) from the International Climate Initiative (IKI), UNEP-WCMC, and from an Australian Research Council Discovery Project grant. The German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) supports the IKI on the basis of a decision adopted by the German Bundestag.

– ref. Hidden connections of more than 100 migratory marine species revealed in interactive map – https://theconversation.com/hidden-connections-of-more-than-100-migratory-marine-species-revealed-in-interactive-map-255972

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Noel Morada, Visiting Professor, Nelson Mandela Centre, Chulalongkorn University; and Research Fellow, Asia Pacific Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, Chulalongkorn University

It’s been two months since former Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte was arrested and handed over to the International Criminal Court (ICC) to face potential prosecution for crimes against humanity.

Duterte’s arrest has angered his supporters and caused polarisation to worsen in the lead-up to important parliamentary elections on May 12.

The election could be a referendum on the current president, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., whose approval rating fell to 25% in March after Duterte’s arrest. It had been 42% a month earlier.

Duterte’s daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, meanwhile, has seen her approval rating increase to 59%, despite the fact she was impeached by the House of Representatives earlier this year for threatening to assassinate Marcos.

Some of Marcos’ former allies are now drifting towards Sara Duterte, potentially setting her up for a successful run for the presidency herself in 2028.

Family feuding

Marcos is not only dealing with the resentment of some segments of the public, he’s also facing a challenge from his own sister, Imee Marcos, a senator.

Imee Marcos conducted several hearings in the Senate to probe into the procedures followed by the national police and other government agencies in implementing Duterte’s arrest warrant, which had been issued through Interpol.

Right from the start, she denounced Duterte’s surrender to the ICC as a violation of the Philippine constitution and the country’s sovereignty. She asserted the court did not have jurisdiction over the Philippines after it withdrew from the Rome Statute in 2019.

In a press conference on April 29, Imee Marcos announced a Senate committee is recommending the filing of criminal charges against the head of the Department of Justice and other officials who arrested and turned him over to the ICC. On May 7, the ombudsman asked these officials to respond to the Senate committee complaint within 10 days.

Imee Marcos has political motivations of her own for acting in this way. She is seeking another term herself and has been trailing in public opinion polls.

To make the political machinations even more complex, Sara Duterte has now endorsed Imee Marcos’ bid for re-election. Some of Duterte’s supporters, however, have been sceptical about Marcos’ motives in conducting the hearings.

Controlling the narrative

Though Duterte’s arrest has dominated the headlines in the Philippines, it’s unclear whether Marcos’ declining popularity as president is tied solely to this incident.

Many Filipinos supported Duterte’s arrest, according to one poll in March. And Marcos’ government has also been criticised for the state of the economy.

But at least one observer has pointed to the Duterte family’s effective use of Tiktok to control the narrative around his arrest, portraying it as a kidnapping. Sara Duterte has recently claimed her name is on the ICC prosecutor’s list of those who will be arrested next.

It is also important to note Duterte’s supporters have resorted to the dissemination of fake news and disinformation against the Marcos administration. His supporters have also aimed their attacks on the ICC pre-trial judges, as well as victims of the drugs war during Duterte’s time in office.

The 2028 presidential race

The outcome of the elections in the Philippines next week will no doubt have short- and medium-term implications for the country’s politics.

First, if all nine of the Senate candidates backed by the Marcos administration win, they would expand his bloc of supporters in the chamber. This bloc may then vote to convict Sara Duterte when her impeachment case moves to a Senate trial.

If she’s convicted, she would be banned from running for president in 2028. But it’s uncertain if two-thirds of senators would vote to convict – the threshold necessary for impeachment. Some pro-Marcos and independent senators may be wary of antagonising loyal Duterte supporters.

If Sara Duterte is acquitted, this would likely only boost her bid for the presidency.

The ICC’s pre-trial chamber will hold a hearing in September that will be watched closely by pro- and anti-Duterte forces in the Philippines. On May 8, the chamber rejected a petition filed by Duterte’s defence team to excuse two judges over alleged bias.

His loyal supporters will likely increase their attacks against the ICC, the victims of Duterte’s drugs war, and the Marcos administration through the use of fake news and disinformation as the trial progresses.

If Duterte is convicted by the court prior to the 2028 election, it will certainly be used as a campaign issue by both sides, too. And this will only further worsen polarisation in the Philippines.

Noel Morada does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. As Filipinos prepare to vote, ex-strongman Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest is dividing families – all the way to the president – https://theconversation.com/as-filipinos-prepare-to-vote-ex-strongman-rodrigo-dutertes-arrest-is-dividing-families-all-the-way-to-the-president-255600

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Farid Zaid, Senior Lecturer, Psychology, Monash University

Imagine a young man whose voice has been worn down by years of feeling invisible. Plain, numb and bitter, the “incel” tries to explain the kind of hopelessness most of us would rather not confront:

I believed I was unlovable, so who the hell is gonna love me? I won’t get a good job, and if I don’t get a good job, I won’t be able to live the kind of life I want. I’ll be lonely and depressed, and what’s the point of living?

You start seeing life not as something to look forward to, but as something you just have to survive.

The pain it describes is far more common than we care to admit.

Today, the word “incel” conjures images of angry online forums, misogyny and even mass violence.

But it didn’t start that way. Incel began as a term for the ache of not being chosen – an ache that, for many young men, has become defining.

Read more:
‘Looksmaxxing’ is the disturbing TikTok trend turning young men into incels

The birth of ‘incel’

In the late 1990s, a Canadian woman known only as Alana created “Alana’s Involuntary Celibacy Project”, a support group for people of all genders struggling to form romantic or sexual relationships.

There was no ideology, just stories of heartbreak, confusion and the quiet sadness of feeling left behind.

She coined the term “invcel”, later shortened to incel. It was a label for isolation, not anger.

But as it often does, the internet repurposed it and angry subcultures took root.

The term hardened: incel began to describe a threat.

Today, it refers to a loosely connected online subculture of young men who see themselves as romantically excluded, blame women or society for their condition, and often express their resentment through misogynistic language, fatalism and at times, violent rhetoric.

How did a word born in solidarity become shorthand for male radicalisation and resentment?

Incel evolution

By the mid-2000s, forums such as 4chan, Reddit and obscure message boards had begun to distort the term.

This new banner of incel identity was encompassed by grievance, rage and rejection.

The digital architecture of these spaces didn’t just permit this shift, it accelerated it. Anonymous avatars, endless algorithms and upvote economies rewarded extremity.

Pain was no longer expressed, it was curated, memed and weaponised.

Incel communities developed their own jargon: “Chads” (attractive, socially successful men), “Stacys” (the women who desire them), and “blackpill theory” (a fatalistic belief that one’s romantic or sexual failure is biologically determined and irreversible).

This crude mythology was used to explain why some men supposedly get everything and others get nothing.

As these forums grew, many also became incubators for dehumanising language and open hostility towards women.

Some of the most active subreddits and boards were eventually banned for promoting violent content or glorifying attacks on women.

Law enforcement agencies in several countries have since begun monitoring incel spaces as potential sites of radicalisation.

Read more:
We research online ‘misogynist radicalisation’. Here’s what parents of boys should know

Loneliness and isolation

While these online communities became more extreme, they also came to dominate the cultural narrative – distracting us from a quieter, more pervasive truth: most young men who feel unwanted or invisible aren’t in these online spaces at all.

They’re not angry or radicalised. They’re just trying to make sense of a life that feels increasingly empty – the very men the word incel was once meant to describe.

That emptiness is part of a growing epidemic of loneliness, particularly among young men.

As social ties fray and emotional isolation deepens, many find themselves without the friendships, intimacy or sense of belonging that once buffered against despair.

One in four Australian men say they have no close friends they can confide in.

These young men are also struggling with the language to name what they feel.

Being single often makes these men feel irrelevant and worthless. Disconnected and ashamed, many go silent. Or they go online in search of community.

What can be done?

The first step is resisting the urge to caricature and dismiss.

Most of these young men are not ticking time bombs – they are simply struggling with disconnection. We need more places where that pain can be acknowledged without shame or fear of ridicule.

It starts with how we talk to, and about, young men. That means fostering emotional literacy in ways that feel authentic and supporting initiatives that build connection without moralising.

This can be done through mentorships and community groups that allow for real relationships to form.

We need more male-friendly mental health services and more male psychologists, too: there are more than four women for every man in this field.

Mental health services that reflect men’s lived realities – through tone, approach and practitioner experience – are more likely to break down the barriers that keep many men away.

Policy can help, too: civic infrastructure that fosters belonging – such as community sports clubs, trade apprenticeships and structured volunteering opportunities – play a critical role. These are the spaces where purpose grows roots and where men in particular often find meaning and community outside formal support systems.

Time for a change?

While the threat from radicalised men online remains, maybe it’s time to retire the word incel.

What began as a label for loneliness has become a painful slur for many men – a shortcut for contempt.

When we lose the language to describe the pain, we can lose the people too.

Farid Zaid does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How the word ‘incel’ got away from us – https://theconversation.com/how-the-word-incel-got-away-from-us-255109

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ruth Boyask, Director of LitPlus, AUT School of Education, Auckland University of Technology

There is a well-known whakatauki (Māori proverb) that goes: “Ka mua, ka muri” – “walking backwards into the future”. It applies to many areas of life, but in education the idea of looking to the past to inform our way forward seems more relevant than ever.

New Zealand was once a world leader in reading. In the early 1970s, as leading literacy educationalist Warwick Elley reminds us, Kiwi teenagers performed best of all countries participating in the International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement.

New Zealand students remained good readers throughout the 1990s, earning the top results for reading out of 32 participating countries in the first Programme for International Student Assessment survey in 2000.

Overall, New Zealand children are still above average. But while many children learn to read successfully, significant numbers do not. And concern about reading capability has led to a recent curriculum overhaul.

The reforms focus on raising reading standards and regular testing. But the lessons of the past suggest we performed better with less focus on raising test scores. In fact, it was a more flexible, balanced approach to English education that provided a strong foundation for literacy.

Some clues to why this was possible can be found in the 1953 Primary School Reading Syllabus from the old Department of Education. It was among the first of many research-based reading initiatives in the mid-20th century, along with Ready to Read books in the 1960s, and the Reading Recovery program developed by Marie Clay in the 1970s.

Given New Zealand was a conservative postwar society that was yet to grapple meaningfully with colonial history and Treaty rights, the document is surprisingly less rigid than one might expect.

In fact, it is largely compatible with contemporary ideas about teaching and learning. In some areas, the 1953 syllabus seems more progressive than the current curriculum, with clear views on inclusiveness and designing teaching to meet individual needs.

Ironically, many of today’s parents and grandparents – some of whom support a “back to basics” school system – were educated using this flexible and purpose-driven approach.

New Zealand in 1953

According to the New Zealand Official Yearbook for 1953, the country was enjoying postwar prosperity with 72% of its exports going to other Commonwealth countries.

England was still the “mother country” and the young Queen Elizabeth’s post-coronation visit – also in 1953 – fuelled intense royal fervour. Edmund Hillary conquered Everest, and a highly publicised air race from London to Christchurch helped popularise plane travel.

Society was far more egalitarian. In a population of just over two million, only 15 people received an unemployment benefit (there were a variety of other welfare payments such as war pensions).

At the same time, New Zealand did not view itself as bicultural in the way it does today. For many Pākehā, Māori culture was little more than a curiosity or a tourist attraction.

School was already compulsory from ages seven to 15, and roughly 17% of the population were enrolled in primary schools. These were the children taught to read according to the 1953 syllabus.

A brief A5-sized booklet of just 13 pages, it recognises reading as a central component of a rich and full life – and that it can be used for “useful, harmless or nefarious” purposes.

Competing with other temptations such as “the exploits of Superman and Mighty Mouse”, as well as cinema and radio, is one of its concerns. But its main aim is to “teach the child to read […] in ways that will encourage him (sic) to use his skill freely and naturally”.

Avoiding a standardised approach

The syllabus outlines ideal components of a classroom reading programme: reading to self (silently) and peers (aloud), listening to story and verse, participating in dramatisation, word study and study skills.

Word study should include learning about phonics. But the syllabus tempers this with the advice that “there can be no doubt that too early a preoccupation with phonics may serve to kill interest in reading”.

This might have been written today by those concerned that structured approaches to literacy will crowd out other important parts of early reading education.

The 1953 syllabus says reading material should encompass fiction (including local authors), non-fiction, plays and poetry. While competent reading by all is the goal, the syllabus also states: “A uniform standard of achievement […] is a mistaken aim.”

This recognition of variable individual capability is something critics say is missing from today’s curriculum. Expectations are set for each year at school, with teachers strongly encouraged to teach to the year level.

The fear is that some students will fall behind as their class moves on, while progress for others will be restricted if they are ahead of those expectations.

The 1953 syllabus cautions that the “results of standardised tests should be weighed against the teacher’s own observation […] and modified accordingly”.

Encouraging teacher autonomy

By comparison, the new English curriculum is long at 108 pages, complex and prescriptive. It includes a range of aims clustered under the headings “Understand”, “Know” and “Do”.

The first encompasses five big ideas learners are expected to develop during their schooling. The second covers the knowledge required in English to become literate. The third outlines the practical steps learners will take in the different phases of their schooling.

To be fair, the new curriculum aims to make all children feel good about reading. It encourages using different kinds of texts, focuses on assessment activities that build on one another, and supports teachers to adapt for student differences.

And, given its contemporary context, there is an awareness of the important role of culture and the unique place of Māori in New Zealand that is entirely missing in the 1953 document.

But the new curriculum also contains directives the 1953 syllabus warned teachers against – namely a preoccupation with teaching phonics, and teaching linked to prescriptive progress measurement and outcomes.

Although brief, the 1953 document is arguably broader in scope and requires teachers to have greater skills. A strength of the old syllabus is that it encouraged teacher professionalism, autonomy and judgement in deciding the best next steps for each learner.

Overall, the 2025 curriculum seems the more constrictive document. The 1953 syllabus presents a view of reading that prioritises the human experience – reading as an aesthetic experience as well as a practical skill.

This article is based on original work by Jayne Jackson, senior lecturer and educational researcher at Manukau Institute of Technology, with the help of AUT’s LitPlus research group.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Kiwi kids once led the world in reading – this 1950s primary school syllabus still has lessons for today – https://theconversation.com/kiwi-kids-once-led-the-world-in-reading-this-1950s-primary-school-syllabus-still-has-lessons-for-today-253719

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marian-Andrei Rizoiu, Associate Professor in Behavioral Data Science, University of Technology Sydney

In today’s fractured online landscape, it is harder than ever to identify harmful actors such as trolls and misinformation spreaders.

Often, efforts to spot malicious accounts focus on analysing what they say. However, our latest research suggests we should be paying more attention to what they do – and how they do it.

We have developed a way to identify potentially harmful online actors based solely on their behavioural patterns – the way they interact with others – rather than the content they share. We presented our results at the recent ACM Web Conference, and were awarded Best Paper.

Beyond looking at what people say

Traditional approaches to spotting problematic online behaviour typically rely on two methods. One is to examine content (what people are saying). The other is to analyse network connections (who follows whom).

These methods have limitations.

Users can circumvent content analysis. They may code their language carefully, or share misleading information without using obvious trigger words.

Network analysis falls short on platforms such as Reddit. Here, connections between users aren’t explicit. Communities are organised around topics rather than social relationships.

We wanted to find a way to identify harmful actors that couldn’t be easily gamed. We realised we could, focusing on behaviour – how people interact, rather than what they say.

Teaching AI to understand human behaviour online

Our approach uses a technique called inverse reinforcement learning. This is a method typically used to understand human decision-making in fields such as autonomous driving or game theory.

We adapted this technology to analyse how users behave on social media platforms.

The system works by observing a user’s actions, such as creating new threads, posting comments and replying to others. From those actions it infers the underlying strategy or “policy” that drives their behaviour.

In our Reddit case study, we analysed 5.9 million interactions over six years. We identified five distinct behavioural personas, including one particularly notable group – “disagreers”.

Meet the ‘disagreers’

Perhaps our most striking result was finding an entire class of Reddit users whose primary purpose seems to be to disagree with others. These users specifically seek out opportunities to post contradictory comments, especially in response to disagreement, and then move on without waiting for replies.

The “disagreers” were most common in politically-focused subreddits (forums focused on particular topics) such as r/news, r/worldnews, and r/politics. Interestingly, they were much less common in the now-banned pro-Trump forum r/The_Donald despite its political focus.

This pattern reveals how behavioural analysis can uncover dynamics that content analysis might miss. In r/The_Donald, users tended to agree with each other while directing hostility toward outside targets. This dynamic may explain why traditional content moderation has struggled to address problems in such communities.

Soccer fans and gamers

Our research also revealed unexpected connections. Users discussing completely different topics sometimes displayed remarkably similar behavioural patterns.

We found striking similarities between users discussing soccer (on r/soccer) and e-sports (on r/leagueoflegends).

This similarity emerges from the fundamental nature of both communities. Soccer and e-sports fans engage in parallel ways: they passionately support specific teams, follow matches with intense interest, participate in heated discussions about strategies and player performances, celebrate victories, and dissect defeats.

Both communities foster strong tribal identities. Users defend their favoured teams while critiquing rivals.

Whether debating Premier League tactics or League of Legends champions, the underlying interaction patterns – the timing, sequence and emotional tone of responses – remain consistent across these topically distinct communities.

This challenges conventional wisdom about online polarisation. While echo chambers are often blamed for increasing division, our research suggests behavioural patterns can transcend topical boundaries. Users may be divided more by how they interact than what they discuss.

Beyond troll detection

The implications of this research extend well beyond academic interest. Platform moderators could use behavioural patterns to identify potentially problematic users before they’ve posted large volumes of harmful content.

Unlike content moderation, behavioural analysis does not depend on understanding language. It is hard to evade, since changing one’s behavioural patterns requires more effort than adjusting language.

The approach could also help design more effective strategies to counter misinformation. Rather than focusing solely on the content, we can design systems that encourage more constructive engagement patterns.

For social media users, this research offers a reminder that how we engage online – not just what we say – shapes our digital identity and influences others.

As online spaces continue to grapple with manipulation, harassment and polarisation, approaches that consider behavioural patterns alongside content analysis may offer more effective solutions for fostering healthier online communities.

Marian-Andrei Rizoiu receives funding from the Advanced Strategic Capabilities Accelerator, the Australian Department of Home Affairs, the Defence Innovation Network, and the National Science Centre, Poland.

Lanqin Yuan and Philipp Schneider do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Some Reddit users just love to disagree, new AI-powered troll-spotting algorithm finds – https://theconversation.com/some-reddit-users-just-love-to-disagree-new-ai-powered-troll-spotting-algorithm-finds-255879

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Langford, Executive Director, Security & Defence PLuS and Professor, UNSW Sydney

When United States President William McKinley advocated high‑tariff protectionism in 1896, he argued squeezing foreign competitors behind a 50% wall of duties would make America richer and safer.

That logic framed US trade debates for a generation, but it was always an economic device – not a geopolitical lever.

In 2025, Donald Trump, now the 47th US president, slapped tariffs on most imported goods to the United States, specifically targeting Chinese imports.

Yet, despite the fact he idolises McKinley, Trump’s emerging grand strategy looks less like his customs schedule and more like Richard Nixon’s “madman” diplomacy of the early 1970s.

Trump is signalling that unpredictability, not price schedules, will coerce adversaries and reorder alliances.

An image of irrational resolve

McKinley’s 1890s tariffs nearly doubled average duties, shielding domestic manufacturers but doing little to shift the global balance of power.

The lesson from these tariffs was straightforward: protectionism may enrich some sectors, but it rarely bends rivals’ strategic choices.

Trump’s first term flirted with McKinley-inspired trade wars, industrial policy and “America First” rhetoric. His second term “strategic reset” moves onto darker, Nixonian ground.

Nixon and his secretary of state, Henry Kissinger, cultivated an image of irrational resolve. They hinted they might do “anything”, even use nuclear weapons, to force concessions in Vietnam and alarm the Soviet politburo.

Nixon’s White House chief of staff, H.R. Haldeman, recalled the president demanding Moscow and Hanoi see him as a man “with his hand on the nuclear button”.

The gambit dovetailed with a bold diplomatic inversion. By opening to Mao Zedong’s China, Nixon sought to isolate the Soviet Union.

Trump’s ‘reverse Nixon’ efforts

Half a century later, Trump appears to be running the tape backward.

Rather than prying China from Russia, he is testing whether Moscow can be prised from Beijing.

In early April, he imposed a blanket 54% tariff on Chinese goods – yet exempted Russia, Cuba and North Korea from the harshest duties.

The White House has simultaneously floated selective sanctions relief for Moscow if Vladimir Putin shows “flexibility” on Ukraine.

Trump’s boosters call the manoeuvre a “reverse Nixon”: befriend the weaker adversary to hem in the stronger.

Al-Jazeera recently reported senior US officials and analysts believe deepening ties with Russia could splinter the Sino‑Russian axis that has unnerved US strategists for years.

But Foreign Affairs warns that even if Washington dangled lavish incentives, Putin would “play Washington and Beijing off each other” rather than choose sides.

Australia’s Strategic Policy Institute is blunter: the idea of splitting the pair is “a delusion”.

Nor is the madman pose guaranteed to intimidate. Scholars note Nixon’s bluff worked only when coupled with painstaking back‑channel diplomacy; the façade of irrationality still required a coherent end‑game.

Trump’s record of erratic statements on NATO, sudden tariff escalations and social media outbursts risks convincing adversaries that chaos is the message, not the method.

Success would require discipline

Yet, the strategic prize is real.

A durable Sino‑Russian alignment forces Washington to split resources across two theatres, complicates sanctions enforcement, and gives Beijing access to Russian hydrocarbons and military technologies.

Even a partial wedge – Moscow adopting neutrality in a potential Indo‑Pacific crisis, for instance – would lighten America’s load and disadvantage China.

Can Trump craft a credible offer? Tariff exemptions and the hint of sanctions relief are carrots; resumed arms‑control talks and guarantees of Russian equities in a post‑war Ukraine settlement could sweeten the pot.

The sticks are clear: escalating tariffs and technology bans on China, plus renewed US gas exports aimed at undercutting Sino‑Russian energy deals.

The fact CIA Director John Ratcliffe called China the “top national security threat” in his confirmation hearings earlier this year – relegating Russia to a lesser threat – underscores the hierarchy.

Still, success would require disciplined messaging and allied buy‑in, traits not often associated with madman theatrics.

If European and Indo‑Pacific partners suspect Washington will mortgage Ukraine’s security or trade their markets for a fleeting Moscow détente, unity will fray.

For Australia, the stakes are immense

For Canberra, the calculus is stark.

Australia’s primary challenge is a more assertive China, not a distant Russia.

If Trump could drive even a hairline crack between Moscow and Beijing, the Indo‑Pacific balance would tilt in favour of the US and its allies.

A Russia preoccupied with Europe or simply unwilling to share sensitive missile and space technologies would deprive China of critical enablers.

Conversely, a bungled “reverse Nixon” strategy could embolden both autocracies.

Should Putin benefit from US tariff exemptions and sanctions relief while deepening defence ties with Beijing — as recent drone and satellite deals suggest – Australia would face a sharper, more integrated adversarial bloc.

The lesson, for Australia, is to hedge: continue deepening AUKUS technology sharing, accelerate long‑range strike acquisition, and tighten diplomatic coordination with Japan, India and ASEAN states.

For Australia, perched on Asia’s faultline, the stakes are immense. A successful wedge would ease pressure on the “first‑island chain” – the chain of strategic islands that stretches from Japan through Taiwan, the Philippines and Indonesia – and give Canberra precious strategic depth.

A failed gambit risks confronting Australian forces with a tandem of nuclear‑armed revisionists (Russia and China) emboldened by US miscalculation.

Ian Langford does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. To split Moscow from Beijing, Trump is reviving Nixon’s ‘madman diplomacy’. It could backfire badly – https://theconversation.com/to-split-moscow-from-beijing-trump-is-reviving-nixons-madman-diplomacy-it-could-backfire-badly-255878

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hasthi Dissanayake, Research Fellow in Indigenous Health, The University of Melbourne

Indigenous Australians are more than twice as likely as non-Indigenous Australians to suffer from disease, particularly chronic diseases such as diabetes, heart disease and kidney disease.

The health disparities are worse in remote and very remote areas. The burden of diabetes in the remote Aboriginal population of the Northern Territory, where it affects more than one in four adults aged over 20, is among the highest in the world.

The Yolŋu (or Yolngu) people of Northeast Arnhem land, a large, remote area in the NT, maintain one of the oldest continuously living cultures in the world. They also represent one of the largest Indigenous groups in Australia.

Yet, people in these communities face the highest number of avoidable deaths in Australia, mostly from chronic disease. A diet of too much sugar, refined and processed food products, smoking and an unhealthy lifestyle contribute to this region’s health crisis.

Beginning in 2014, senior Yolŋu women in Galiwin’ku, one of the largest communities in Northeast Arnhem land, have been developing a unique diet and lifestyle change program called Hope for Health. The program has been running intermittently since then, and includes on-Country health retreats, individualised health coaching, and group classes and activities.

We recently evaluated this program. We found it offers significant benefits which could reduce chronic disease risk among the Yolŋu people.

A holistic approach

Most Yolŋu live on Aboriginal land in remote communities of various sizes and hold a deep unbroken connection to their ancestral country.

Health and wellbeing is considered a holistic concept that connects physical, social, emotional, cultural, spiritual and ecological wellbeing at both an individual and community level.

The Hope for Health program is based on the values of Margikunhamirr (making known and sharing understanding) and Goŋ-ŋthanhamirr (supporting and walking alongside each other) to empower Yolŋu to gain control of their health.

Over four months, the program focuses on giving people the knowledge to make their own lifestyle changes and choices to improve health and prevent chronic disease.

It includes:

• An on-Country health retreat: this is an immersive 12-day bush retreat focused on reconnecting with the Yolŋu tradition of living, eating, and healing from the land, and learning about the body and health.

• In-community support and mentoring: over 14 weeks following the retreat, this part of the program is focused on overcoming barriers to introducing lifestyle changes. It includes group activities for identifying healthy food options at the shops, storing and cooking fresh produce, and yarning about healthy lifestyles.

• Individual and home-based health coaching: this takes place during the retreat and afterwards in participants’ homes or places of their choosing. Health coaches explain blood test results to participants, offer education in their language and help with goal setting, such as reducing sugar consumption, smoking, or increasing exercise.

What we found

Together with colleagues at the Doherty Institute and other collaborators, we evaluated a Hope for Health program in the second half of 2022.

We assessed outcomes such as body weight and blood sugar levels among 55 adults before and after they took part in the program. All participants were overweight or obese at the beginning.

We recently published our findings in the Medical Journal of Australia.

By the end of the program, 52% of participants reduced their HbA1c – a measure of blood sugar – by at least 0.3%. Some 33% of participants lost at least 3% of their body weight.

Changes such as these are called “clinically significant” because they’re big enough for doctors to see real health benefits such as reduced risk of chronic disease, including diabetes and heart disease.

Other outcomes we looked at improved too. Overall, participants had smaller waist circumferences at the end, lower body-mass index, better “good” cholesterol levels, were drinking less sugary drinks, and doing more daily exercise.

Why did it work?

Behavioural change is not necessarily easy to achieve in these communities, which have a very different language and culture from mainstream Australia.

Our study is the first in remote Aboriginal communities to comprehensively evaluate a lifestyle change program with such promising results.

The study design cannot prove the intervention directly caused the changes. That is, there may have been other factors which contributed to the outcomes.

A randomised controlled trial would have provided stronger proof the program led to the health improvements we observed, but these trials can be unsuitable in remote Indigenous communities. In this study, the community was concerned delaying the program for some people would harm their health. Also, many wanted their extended family to take part, making it difficult to select a representative control group which would be needed for this type of study.

Nonetheless, our results suggest support for culturally sensitive health initiatives such as Hope for Health is crucial for reducing the burden of chronic disease in remote Indigenous communities.

We believe Hope for Health worked because it was led by Yolŋu people and is built on Yolŋu knowledge, language and culture. Education provided to remote Aboriginal people such as the Yolŋu needs to be liya-lapmarnhamirr – that is, presented in a way that brings revelation and understanding.

Hasthi Dissanayake receives or has received funding from the Medical Research Future Fund, University of Melbourne, University of Sydney, and Australian government postgraduate and research grants.

Beverley-Ann Biggs receives research funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council and Medical Research Future Fund competitive grant schemes.

George Gurruwiwi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. A community-led health program in remote Arnhem land is showing promising results for First Nations locals – https://theconversation.com/a-community-led-health-program-in-remote-arnhem-land-is-showing-promising-results-for-first-nations-locals-255519

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robyn Cox, Professor of Literacy Education, University of Tasmania

Is reading to your kids a bedtime ritual in your home? For many of us, it will be a visceral memory of our own childhoods. Or of the time raising now grown-up children.

Perhaps it involves a nightly progression through the Percy Jackson series or the next Captain Underpants book. Or maybe there’s a request to have Room on the Broom again (and again).

But for some households, reading aloud is not a regular activity. A recent UK report by publisher Harper Collins found many parents are not reading to their kids. Fewer than half (41%) of 0–4-year-olds are read to frequently. More than 20% of parents surveyed agreed reading is “more a subject to learn than a fun thing to do”.

The report also found some parents stop reading to their children once they can read by themselves. As the Guardian reported, some parents assume “it will make [their child] lazy and less likely to read independently”.

Here’s why it’s important to read to your children – even after they have learned to read.

What’s involved in reading skills?

Research on reading skills suggests there are two main types of skills involved in learning to read.

1. Constrained skills are skills that once we learn, we keep. For example, once we learn the alphabet we don’t have to keep learning it. It’s like riding a bike.

2. Unconstrained skills are skills we continue to learn throughout life. For example, vocabulary, reading fluency (how quickly and smoothly you read) and reading comprehension. Even as adults we continue to learn new word and language forms.

We know reading to infants and younger children can build early language skills, such as the sounds of words and the alphabet. Reading to older children is a simple way to build unconstrained skills.

How reading aloud helps

The books we read aloud at bedtime to young readers tend to be those they can’t read themselves.

So it introduces more complex ideas, words and sentence patterns. This is why reading aloud to your children is a parental superpower – you can continue to build where the school learning stops.

Reading together can also encourage closeness between children and parents, as well as shared knowledge and laughs.

When you are reading to your child, they have your full attention, which also makes the time special.

What should you be reading?

Reading aloud doesn’t necessarily have to involve multiple chapters of a book. Research suggests what matters is that it’s something you are both interested in and enjoying.

You could read to your child on a device, or you could even tell a traditional tale without a book.

You could read poetry, news articles or magazine articles about a favourite football team or player – these can all build unconstrained literacy skills.

Even re-reading a beloved picture book from younger years can build fluency and focus on direct speech in text (especially when the reader does “funny” voices).

How often should you read to your child?

Family life is busy and parents often have many commitments. So there are no rules, other than to make it fun. Don’t be put off by “how much you have to do” – a few minutes of engaged reading time together is better than none at all.

You could read to your child when you yourself are reading something and want to share it. If it’s too hard to read to your child every night, do it every weekend night or make another time during the week. Or ask a grandparent or older sibling to help.

And there is no set age to stop – if you like, keep reading to your kids until they leave home!

Robyn Cox does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why it’s important to read aloud to your kids – even after they can read themselves – https://theconversation.com/why-its-important-to-read-aloud-to-your-kids-even-after-they-can-read-themselves-256089

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hugh Stanford, Researcher Associate, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT University

Across Australian cities, leftover and overlooked green spaces are everywhere. Just think of all the land along stormwater drains, railway lines and vacant lots. While often dismissed as useless or unsightly, there’s a growing understanding of the value these spaces bring to cities.

These informal green spaces can support biodiversity and offer rare freedom to explore, play or connect with nature in a less controlled way than formal spaces such as parks. They also help to cool our cities.

My new research looks at how cities globally are rethinking overlooked green spaces. I identified three ways to unlock the value of these areas: leaving spaces intentionally unmanaged, supporting temporary or informal uses, or formalising them as parks or other public places. Each approach offers different benefits and challenges for cities trying to create greener, more liveable neighbourhoods.

Local councils are under increasing pressure to create more formal green space, with residents, at times, calling on councils to buy land for new parks. But let’s start with what’s already there.

1: Hands off: the case for doing less

In some cases, doing nothing can be surprisingly powerful.

When governments step back, communities and nature can step in, with potentially joyful, creative and ecologically rich results. In the Belgian capital of Brussels, for example, disused railway land, left unmanaged, has become a haven for biodiversity, offering valuable insights into how ecosystems can regenerate without human interference.

Closer to home, there are many examples of railway land being used informally as green space. One site, in the Melbourne suburb of Northcote, has become a makeshift trail used by walkers, dog owners and children on bikes. Though not officially a park, it functions like one, with its informal character fostering a sense of ownership and spontaneity among users. In the past few months, local residents have started planting native vegetation and putting up makeshift art installations, and even a swing.

But this hands-off approach has limitations. It works best where a strong sense of community, or ecological value, already exists. And while nature can bounce back in surprising ways, it often needs a helping hand.

2. Helping out: supporting informal or temporary uses

Where informal installations already exist – such as art installations or unauthorised plantings known as guerrilla gardens – councils can support and even help grow these initiatives.

Some councils may see local-led efforts as a liability, but these efforts represent an opportunity to bring life to underused land at minimal cost. By recognising and supporting such activities, including financially, councils can empower residents to shape their own neighbourhoods in meaningful ways. This can include expanding existing installations or establishing new installations on other underused sites.

There is also benefit in local councils creating their own temporary installations such as pop-up parks. This has been shown to be an effective way to activate underused space and trial initiatives before more permanent plans are developed.

Examples include the creation of a temporary park in Ballarat Street, Yarraville in 2012. Community support for the temporary park led to the construction of a permanent park in 2014.

3. Stepping in: when formalising makes sense

There are times where formal intervention is warranted – for example, where land is contaminated or supports invasive weeds. In such cases, transforming a site into a fully developed park can deliver significant benefits. Land alongside a river, road or railway line, can be readily transformed into a long “linear park” with walking trails and bike paths.

In Paris, the conversion of a former industrial railway line into a linear park is a great example, attracting both locals and tourists.

Melbourne, too, has its own success in revitalising disused infrastructure. The Greening the Pipeline project in Melbourne’s west involves converting a disused sewer main into a vibrant linear park. These projects demonstrate the benefits that can be achieved from developing high-quality, permanent public green spaces from underused land.

But formalising public use of urban green space comes at a cost, financially and otherwise: a highly designed park can crowd out the quirky, unplanned character that makes many informal spaces feel special. That’s why it’s crucial to see formalising green space as one option among many, and to reserve it for sites where potential benefits justify the investment.

A call to action

If you work in urban planning or local government, resist the urge to control and replace. Look at what’s already available. Sometimes the best thing you can do is observe, step back and support. Not all public spaces need a master plan.

If you’re a resident, get out there. Start small: plant something native, or set up a swing (where safe to do so). By engaging with the green spaces already around you, you might help create your own slice of urban paradise – no land purchase required.

Hugh Stanford does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Old drains and railways are full of life. Here’s how to make the most of these overlooked green spaces – https://theconversation.com/old-drains-and-railways-are-full-of-life-heres-how-to-make-the-most-of-these-overlooked-green-spaces-255736

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marian Makkar, Senior Lecturer in Marketing, RMIT University

Workplace burnout – a state of emotional, physical, and mental exhaustion – and the COVID pandemic have sparked a rethink of the traditional 9-to-5 job.

It’s been estimated 30% of the Australian workforce is experiencing some degree of burnout, raising serious concerns about the possible impacts on mental health.

Is it possible – and if so, wise – to take addressing burnout into your own hands? Some responses to the problem, such as “micro-retirement”, have enjoyed recent popularity on social media.

But a small number of people take an even more radical approach – dumping the 9-to-5 path entirely for careers that prioritise meaning, enjoyment and personal growth. We sought to find out how this move played out for one group in particular – snowsports instructors.

Our research – published in the International Journal of Research in Marketing – covers a 10.5-year study of snowsports instructors who left their 9-to-5 jobs for a meaningful career on the slopes of Canada, Japan, the United States and New Zealand.

We looked at instructors’ journeys into the lifestyle, how they managed their new careers, and what led some to eventually return to the 9-to-5.

Chasing winter

We interviewed 13 snowsports instructors aged 25 to 40 (seven men, six women), collected image and video artefacts, followed social media accounts and surveyed snow school reports. Our lead researcher also participated in the lifestyle herself.

All our participants had at least a bachelor degree and previous steady careers in fields such as education or information technology.

During our decade-long field work, we found instructors earned just enough money to maintain this lifestyle, often travelling with their possessions in one or two bags.

Beyond the adrenaline and beauty of a life in the snow, we found people were first motivated to enter this career to escape the corporate world and ties of modern life. One participant, Lars, said:

If you just get a job, you get maybe 20 days off a year for the next 40 years, and once you stop, once you’ve got a job and a house and a mortgage and a kid […] you’re trapped.

A sense of accomplishment

At the centre of our research was the idea of building a career around the ancient Greek concept of “eudaimonia”. This term is sometimes translated to “happiness” in English, but its broader connotations mean it’s closer to “flourishing” and involves a sense of purpose and living a life of virtue.

That’s in contrast to the related concept of “hedonism” – which centres on the pursuit of pleasure for its own sake. Eudaimonia is meant to make us reflect on life’s purpose, potential and meaning.

As our participants mastered the sport and career, they moved from mere enjoyment or hedonism of being in the snow to finding meaning and purpose in their jobs.

They felt a sense of accomplishment and appreciation of snowsports as a sport and job requiring dedication, care and commitment.

Challenges along the way

However, with every career there are demands that shape how people manage work and purposeful pursuits. Instructors must bear financial costs such as buying their own equipment, paying for certifications and accommodation.

Eventually the lifestyle was not sustainable for some due to precarious working conditions and minimal wages. Relying on the weather to produce snow, unfair compensation and fixed-term contracts wore many down.

An unhappy participant confessed:

You think about money all day everyday […] working out the costs, staffing and lesson prices! Yet they (ski resort managers) tell me as an instructor that I shouldn’t think about my monetary work. Well, if it wasn’t about the money, you wouldn’t charge as much for lessons.

In the period we studied, six returned to a regular 9-to-5 job.

An alternative to meaningless jobs?

The late American anthropologist David Graeber coined the phrase “bullshit jobs” to describe jobs that comprise meaningless tasks that add no real value aside from providing a salary.

Our study offers a window into the lives of those who sought an alternative, trying to build something they love into the daily work they do to earn a living.

For many, despite challenges the ability to ride slopes daily remained more appealing than a desk job. One told us:

At university my first management lecturer said, ‘you could go on to be a CEO, earn $300,000 a year and have a month off every year to go skiing’, and I said, ‘or I could go skiing every day and still afford to eat and pay my rent’. It’s all I really need.

But things didn’t work out for all of them. The experience of those who left suggests choosing meaningful work can be difficult and can force people out if the surrounding organisational system is not supportive.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Ever wanted to ditch the 9-to-5 and teach snowsports? We followed people who did it for 10 years – https://theconversation.com/ever-wanted-to-ditch-the-9-to-5-and-teach-snowsports-we-followed-people-who-did-it-for-10-years-255012

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jessica Gildersleeve, Professor of English Literature, University of Southern Queensland

With Mother’s Day around the corner, you may be wondering what gift you’ll give mum – or any of the mums in your life. This year, why not skip the fancy dinner and offer one of the most precious gifts there is: quality time, in front of the TV.

When I asked seven experts what movies they’d recommend for Mother’s Day, I wasn’t expecting I, Tonya or Alien: Romulus – but their responses have made me realise just how multifaceted the experience of motherhood is, and how weirdly and wonderfully it can be reflected onscreen.

So here’s what to watch if you want to laugh, cry, or scream, in an ode to mothers everywhere.

I, Tonya (2017)

The first film from Margot Robbie’s production company LuckyChap Entertainment – which earned Robbie an Oscar nomination for best actress – is an ideal viewing choice for anyone wanting to support Aussie female talent.

Former American figure skater Tonya Harding became a household name in 1994, after her then-husband Jeff Gillooly orchestrated an assault on her primary rival, Nancy Kerrigan, in a bid to block Kerrigan from representing the United States at that year’s Winter Olympics.

I, Tonya presents the event, and those of Harding’s career leading up to it, from a more sympathetic perspective than usual. Although it is careful to open with the caveat that the story is derived from “irony-free, wildly contradictory, totally true interviews with Tonya Harding and Jeff Gillooly”, the film presents Harding’s life as one of abuse and cruelty at every turn.

The judges can’t stand her “unfeminine” power. Her husband only shows love through violence. And her heartless mother, LaVona (Alison Janney) is desperate to cash-in on the financial gains from her career success, while simultaneously resenting it.

Janney’s performance as LaVona won her the Academy Award for best supporting actress, a title thoroughly deserved as an ice-cold LaVona chainsmokes through barbed criticisms and physical threats. While I, Tonya may not be the most obvious choice for a film to watch on Mother’s Day, it certainly will make you appreciate yours.

– Jessica Gildersleeve

Stepmom (1998)

Stepmom, starring Julia Roberts and Susan Sarandon, is a family weepy for anyone who needs a cathartic cry. Directed by Chris Columbus, the comedy–drama follows the story of terminally ill woman Jackie Harrison (Sarandon) as she comes to grips with the fact her ex-husband’s new girlfriend Isabel (Roberts) will soon be her children’s stepmother.

The film, like others under Columbus’ direction, is a critique of domestic dysfunction (think Home Alone, Mrs Doubtfire, or Nine Months), and an exploration of the lengths characters will go in order to restore the ruptured (nuclear) family, whether literally or symbolically.

Despite its melodramatic machinery and predictable ending, Stepmom offers a nuanced portrayal of the struggles of children during separation or divorce. We see 12-year-old Anna and her little brother, Ben, an aspiring magician, caught in an emotional tug-of-war between their loyalty to their dying mother and their natural affection for their new stepmum.

In an honest moment, an anxious Ben asks his dad, “can you ever fall out of love with your kids?”

“No, that’s impossible,” Dad responds.

In an equally realistic thread, the sullen Anna begrudgingly turns to Isabel for advice on boys, clothes and makeup – their relationship soon resembling one of sisters rather than adversaries (controversially, Roberts’ character even takes it upon herself to explain the concept of “snowblowing” to the tween).

In 1998, Stepmom was ahead of its time – not in its representation of motherhood, but in its acknowledgement the nuclear family was, even back then, a thing of the past.

– Kate Cantrell

Double Jeopardy (1999)

Like most thrillers made in the 1990s, Double Jeopardy begins in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States: the epicentre for murder and mist.

Libby Parsons (Ashley Judd) is living the idyllic waterfront life with her husband Nick (Bruce Greenwood) and son Matty. After being convinced by Nick to go yachting, Libby wakes up on the boat (during what could best be described as a mist storm) to discover Nick is missing, and there is an endless path of blood from her hands to the yacht’s edge.

Libby is tried and convicted for Nick’s murder. While grieving her son in jail, she finds out her husband is actually alive and has framed her. Libby’s cellmate tells her about the “double jeopardy” rule: you can’t be tried for the same crime twice.

The montage of Libby preparing for revenge in jail signals an uptick in campy action. Upon her release, we’re introduced to parole officer Travis (Tommy Lee Jones). A game of cat and mouse ensues that is equal parts thrilling and ridiculous.

Ultimately, Libby must choose between vengeance and getting her son back. Will she follow the rules and wait, or will she put her relentless jail workouts to good use? Double Jeopardy is profoundly stupid and fun, with all the unexpected charm of a midday movie that pulls you in, despite not making much sense.

It’s just the kind of movie my mum and I have found ourselves glued to on a Saturday afternoon – cheerleaders for revenge.

– Kathleen Williams

Monster-in-Law (2005)

What lengths would you go to protect your son from marrying someone unsuitable? One of the first references to the roles of the mother-in-law can be traced back to Latin literature, and the comedic play Hecyra, by Roman playwright Terence, which was first successfully performed in 160 BC. The play’s comedic twist is that the mother-in-law is accused of hating her son’s wife.

The 2005 box office hit Monster-in-Law (2005) follows this trajectory and takes it to the extreme. Viola Fields (Jane Fonda) becomes manipulative and acts downright dirty to prevent her son, Kevin (Michael Vartan), from getting married to his fiancée Charlie (Jennifer Lopez) – who she thinks is not good enough for him.

This romantic comedy has the conventions of love, romance, a wedding, and overall impending chaos. It is about a mother trying to do what she thinks is best for her son, as well as the fragile links between romantic love, familial love and matriarchy.

In parts, the film transgresses into slapstick territory, as Kevin remains oblivious of Viola’s volatile antics towards Charlie. The tension between the two strong female leads hilariously spirals out of control in the lead-up to the wedding.

Monster-in-Law is a feel-good film that draws on the close bond between mother and child, making it good viewing for Mother’s Day.

– Panizza Allmark

The Wild Robot (2024)

There’s a cultural belief that once your baby is in your arms, you’ll immediately know how to look after them, or that you can draw on your own experience of being mothered, or find the right path in one of eleventy billion parenting books.

But even if you did have a good experience of being mothered (and many don’t), or you find some great books, parenthood remains a journey of uncertainty and trial and error.

When I took my young children to see The Wild Robot, I laughed and cried way more than them. Not just because the animation was so beautiful, or because the story was so moving, but because of the non-didactic moments that resonated so strongly with how we parents feel.

We often don’t know what we’re doing; we’re trying our best, and wishing it will be the right thing – playing out an internal war between wanting to protect our children and wanting them to forge their own path.

In The Wild Robot, Roz the robot (voiced by Lupita Nyong’o) is focused on helping her adopted gosling Brightbill (Kit Connor) learn how to fly – something she has no experience of. More importantly, Brightbill must fly on a migration flight with other birds, where she can’t join him.

The film mirrors the beautiful and horrifying knowledge parents carry: if we do our job, our children will become their own individuals who are able and willing to leave us. All we can hope is we’ve formed a bond that will make them want to return.

– Rebecca Beirne

My Big Fat Greek Wedding (2002)

Was your mother born overseas? It’s likely. Nearly half of all Australians have a parent born overseas. Or perhaps you married into a family where your “new mum” was born overseas?

Your mother-in-law counts on Mother’s Day. Don’t forget it. And if you married into a wonderfully loud Greek/Italian family as I did, then your mother-in-law is likely a hard worker who deserves to be entertained. So why not offer her, and all the mums in your life, a sweet, disarming rom-com about a clash of cultures and a life milestone all mums can get behind: a wedding. A Big Fat Greek Wedding, to be precise.

Written by and starring Nia Vardalos, this film tells the tale of Toula Portokalos, who, at the “advanced” age of 30, remains persistently unmarried in the early aughts Chicago. In Greek terms, this is already a tragedy. The title does a lot of heavy lifting in terms of what comes next.

The real charm of the film is the clash of cultures that anyone with any ethnic background will recognise.

My Big Fat Greek Wedding was a small film with huge global success. Will your mum care it was made with a budget of just US$5 million but grossed more than US$360 million worldwide, making it one of the most profitable films of all time, with a more than 6,150% return? Probably not.

But she’ll love John Corbett, that tall guy who was also in Sex in City (and he’s really good in this one). Just make sure you skip the sequels.

– Ruari Elkington

Alien: Romulus (2024)

Not everyone wants to watch saccharine romantic comedies on Mothers’ Day. If you can relate, dystopian horror film Alien: Romulus (2024) offers much darker pleasures.

Feminist scholars have long found the Alien franchise to be rife with symbolism and repressed fears about motherhood, birth and reproductive organs. Alien: Romulus goes further than the original 1979 film in making the theme of sexual violation explicit. As you might expect from Fede Álvarez, the director of Evil Dead (2013), there is plenty of body horror as human characters are assaulted and orally impregnated by Alien species.

The film also includes neo-Marxist messages about “the company” and its violation of workers’ bodies. Working mums may enjoy the dark humour of a futuristic corporation that literally sucks the life out of workers before politely thanking them for their service.

Leading action woman Rain Carradine (Cailee Spaeny) is more vulnerable and relatable than the iconic character Ripley of previous films. When Rain discovers her work contract has tipped over into slavery, she joins up with her ex-boyfriend Tyler (Archie Renaux) and his pregnant sister Kay (Isabela Merced) to hijack a space station.

They must then manage a coolly indifferent IT operating system called “MU/TH/UR” to control the ship. The fact Kay is pregnant does not bode well; her baby eventually bursts out as a hideous alien-human mutant which tries to eat her.

Alien Romulus is basically every unspeakable anxiety about pregnancy and motherhood realised through spectacular special effects. It’s also the franchise’s best film since the original.

– Susan Hopkins

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Stepmums, alien mums, robot mums, vengeful mums: 7 films to watch this Mother’s Day – https://theconversation.com/stepmums-alien-mums-robot-mums-vengeful-mums-7-films-to-watch-this-mothers-day-255004

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dennis Doyle, Professor Emeritus of Religious Studies, University of Dayton

Cardinal Robert Prevost of the United States has been picked to be the new leader of the Roman Catholic Church; he will be known as Pope Leo XIV.

Attention now turns to what vision the first U.S. pope will bring.

Change is hard to bring about in the Catholic Church. During his pontificate, Francis often gestured toward change without actually changing church doctrines. He permitted discussion of ordaining married men in remote regions where populations were greatly underserved due to a lack of priests, but he did not actually allow it. On his own initiative, he set up a commission to study the possibility of ordaining women as deacons, but he did not follow it through.

However, he did allow priests to offer the Eucharist, the most important Catholic sacrament of the body and blood of Christ, to Catholics who had divorced and remarried without being granted an annulment.

Likewise, Francis did not change the official teaching that a sacramental marriage is between a man and a woman, but he did allow for the blessing of gay couples, in a manner that did appear to be a sanctioning of gay marriage.

To what degree will the new pope stand or not stand in continuity with Francis? As a scholar who has studied the writings and actions of the popes since the time of the Second Vatican Council, a series of meetings held to modernize the church from 1962 to 1965, I am aware that every pope comes with his own vision and his own agenda for leading the church.

Still, the popes who immediately preceded them set practical limits on what changes could be made. There were limitations on Francis as well; however, the new pope, I argue, will have more leeway because of the signals Francis sent.

The process of synodality

Francis initiated a process called “synodality,” a term that combines the Greek words for “journey” and “together.” Synodality involves gathering Catholics of various ranks and points of view to share their faith and pray with each other as they address challenges faced by the church today.

One of Francis’ favorite themes was inclusion. He carried forward the teaching of the Second Vatican Council that the Holy Spirit – that is, the Spirit of God who inspired the prophets and is believed to be sent by Christ among Christians in a special way – is at work throughout the whole church; it includes not only the hierarchy but all of the church members. This belief constituted the core principle underlying synodality.

Francis launched a two-year global consultation process in October 2022, culminating in a synod in Rome in October 2024. Catholics all over the world offered their insights and opinions during this process. The synod discussed many issues, some of which were controversial, such as clerical sexual abuse, the need for oversight of bishops, the role of women in general and the ordination of women as deacons.

The final synod document did not offer conclusions concerning these topics but rather aimed more at promoting the transformation of the entire Catholic Church into a synodal church in which Catholics tackle together the many challenges of the modern world. Francis refrained from issuing his own document in response, in order that the synod’s statement could stand on its own.

The process of synodality in one sense places limits on bishops and the pope by emphasizing their need to listen closely to all church members before making decisions. In another sense, though, in the long run the process opens up the possibility for needed developments to take place when and if lay Catholics overwhelmingly testify that they believe the church should move in a certain direction.

Change is hard in the church

A pope, however, cannot simply reverse official positions that his immediate predecessors had been emphasizing. Practically speaking, there needs to be a papacy, or two, during which a pope will either remain silent on matters that call for change or at least limit himself to hints and signals on such issues.

In 1864, Pius IX condemned the proposition that “the Church ought to be separated from the State, and the State from the Church.” It wasn’t until 1965 – some 100 years later – that the Second Vatican Council, in The Declaration on Religious Freedom, would affirm that “a wrong is done when government imposes upon its people, by force or fear or other means, the profession or repudiation of any religion. …”

A second major reason why popes may refrain from making top-down changes is that they may not want to operate like a dictator issuing executive orders in an authoritarian manner. Francis was accused by his critics of acting in this way with his positions on Eucharist for those remarried without a prior annulment and on blessings for gay couples. The major thrust of his papacy, however, with his emphasis on synodality, was actually in the opposite direction.

Notably, when the Amazon Synod – held in Rome in October 2019 – voted 128-41 to allow for married priests in the Brazilian Amazon region, Francis rejected it as not being the appropriate time for such a significant change.

Past doctrines

The belief that the pope should express the faith of the people and not simply his own personal opinions is not a new insight from Francis.

The doctrine of papal infallibility, declared at the First Vatican Council in 1870, held that the pope, under certain conditions, could express the faith of the church without error.

The limitations and qualifications of this power include that the pope be speaking not personally but in his official capacity as the head of the church; he must not be in heresy; he must be free of coercion and of sound mind; he must be addressing a matter of faith and morals; and he must consult relevant documents and other Catholics so that what he teaches represents not simply his own opinions but the faith of the church.

The Marian doctrines of the Immaculate Conception and the Assumption offer examples of the importance of consultation. The Immaculate Conception, proclaimed by Pope Pius IX in 1854, is the teaching that Mary, the mother of Jesus, was herself preserved from original sin, a stain inherited from Adam that Catholics believe all other human beings are born with, from the moment of her conception. The Assumption, proclaimed by Pius XII in 1950, is the doctrine that Mary was taken body and soul into heaven at the end of her earthly life.

The documents in which these doctrines were proclaimed stressed that the bishops of the church had been consulted and that the faith of the lay people was being affirmed.

Unity, above all

One of the main duties of the pope is to protect the unity of the Catholic Church. On one hand, making many changes quickly can lead to schism, an actual split in the community.

In 2022, for example, the Global Methodist Church split from the United Methodist Church over same-sex marriage and the ordination of noncelibate gay bishops. There have also been various schisms within the Anglican communion in recent years. The Catholic Church faces similar challenges but so far has been able to avoid schisms by limiting the actual changes being made.

On the other hand, not making reasonable changes that acknowledge positive developments in the culture regarding issues such as the full inclusion of women or the dignity of gays and lesbians can result in the large-scale exit of members.

Pope Leo XIV, I argue, needs to be a spiritual leader, a person of vision, who can build upon the legacy of his immediate predecessors in such a way as to meet the challenges of the present moment. He already stated that he wants a synodal church that is “close to the people who suffer,” signaling a great deal about the direction he will take.

If the new pope is able to update church teachings on some hot-button issues, it will be precisely because Francis set the stage for him.

Dennis Doyle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Pope Leo XIV faces limits on changing the Catholic Church − but Francis made reforms that set the stage for larger changes – https://theconversation.com/pope-leo-xiv-faces-limits-on-changing-the-catholic-church-but-francis-made-reforms-that-set-the-stage-for-larger-changes-256181

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

By late last week it was clear Labor would win the election, but it came as more of a surprise when Peter Dutton lost the Queensland seat of Dickson he’d held since 2001.

Nor did many anticipate Greens leader Adam Bandt, member for Melbourne since 2010, would be swept away, in a lower house rout that has seen the minor party stripped of three of its four House of Representative seats.

Both the Liberals and the Greens are in existential moments, in need of new leaders and some painful introspection’s about their future directions.

Thinking back to the Liberal experience after Kevin Rudd’s 2007 victory, some wonder why anyone would be putting up their hand for the party leadership.

The Liberals churned through three leaders between 2007 and 2009. Brendan Nelson took over the party after Labor’s victory; undermined by Malcolm Turnbull, he lasted less than a year. Turnbull survived just over a year before being ousted by Tony Abbott.

Admittedly the experience of Peter Dutton was different – he was given a full term as opposition leader.

But the chances of Dutton’s successor becoming prime minister will be very low. With the added seats Labor has won, the Liberals are looking at a two-term strategy. The odds are on more than one leader, and generational change, in that time. Tim Wilson, 45, who has won back Goldstein, obviously has his eye on the prize in the longer term.

Despite all the disincentives, Sussan Ley, 63, and Angus Taylor, 58, both want this thankless post that’s up for grabs at Tuesday’s party meeting.

The battle has turned into a fight over negatives as much as positives. Supporters of Ley say Taylor did a dreadful job as shadow treasurer, including not producing a tax policy. The Taylor camp argues Ley, the deputy leader, under-performed generally.

Both contenders hold regional NSW electorates. Taylor’s support base is the conservative wing of the party; Leys’ is the moderate wing. The relative weightings of the factions in the Liberal party room has changed somewhat as a result of the election, in the favour of the moderates.

For those Liberal MPs whose votes are not tightly locked in by factional allegiances, there are multiple questions they need to consider.

Who will be able to keep the party together, while forcing it to face up to what changes it must make, and driving a major overhaul of policy? Who can improve the Liberals’ standing with women, and with younger voters? Who can better handle the relationship with the Nationals?

On the last point, anyone who might think it would be best to break the Coalition is, I believe, misguided. Going it alone didn’t work in the 1970s and the 1980s. Different as they may be, the Liberals and Nationals are, electorally, two parts of a whole.

They need their collective numbers to win and they’re better to stay together in opposition, to make the partnership in government work. But the relationship may be rocky.

At the election, the Nationals retained almost all their seats and will have a relatively bigger voice from now on.

On Thursday, however, their highest profile senator, Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, jumped from the Nationals to the Liberals. She said she thought she could be more effective in the Liberals, “especially as the party faces a significant rebuild […] I feel obliged to play a robust part in”.

This was a concerted move from the right, and will play into the leadership contest in an as-yet unclear way. With speculation that she might run as Taylor’s deputy, Price was asked on Sky on Thursday night she would be willing to be drafted for a position. “I will not put limitations on myself,” she said.

For the Liberals, there is absolutely no silver lining from this election. The Greens can take some comfort in the fact they’ve retained their numbers (11) in the Senate, with only a small fall in their Senate vote. On the projected results, the Greens are set to be the sole negotiators with the government in the Senate on legislation opposed by the Coalition.

Who will become leader is still an open question, with South Australian veteran Senator Sarah Hanson-Young, deputy leader Mehreen Faruqi, and the party’s Senate leader, Larissa Waters, mentioned. Whoever gets the post, the leadership will return to the Senate, where it always was until Bandt obtained the position in early 2020.

Post election, Anthony Albanese has continued his fierce pre-election attack on the Greens. “What I hope comes out of the new Senate is a bit of a recognition that one of the reasons why the Greens political party have had a bad outcome in the election is the view that they simply combined with the Coalition in what I termed the ‘noalition’, to provide blockages, and that occurred across a range of portfolios, housing, treasury, as well as environment,” he told the ABC.

Albanese was particularly scathing about Greens housing spokesman Max Chandler-Mather who lost his seat and criticised parliament as a “sick place”.

“Maybe what he needs is a mirror and a reflection on why he’s no longer in parliament. […] This is a guy who stood before signs at a CFMEU rally in Brisbane describing me as a Nazi.”

Bob Brown, the Greens’ inaugural leader from 2005 to 2012, describes Albanese’s comments as “ungracious” in “his moment of glory”.

While the Greens’ pro-Palestinian position came under much criticism, Brown strongly defends it, declaring it “honorable”.

Brown, speaking to The Conversation, says the Greens will be in an extraordinarily powerful position in the Senate, and their “environmental origins will  come back to the fore”. He urges the Greens to “have deaf ears to calls for the Senate to be a rubber stamp”. The Constitution, he says, has the Senate with equal powers with the house except on money matters.

Brown predicts the Greens will be “resurgent” at the next election.  His strongest message is directed squarely at the government. “The Greens should never direct preferences to Labor again – because Labor takes preferences with one hand and stabs the Greens with the other.”

Like the new Liberal leader, Bandt’s successor will inherit a party at a fork in the road. Does it become more militant or more moderate, more confrontational in its dealing with the government, or as transactional as possible?

Bandt’s hope of the Greens power-sharing with a Labor government in the lower house has evaporated. So how does the party use what power it has in the Senate, while trying to put itself in the best position to avoid going further backwards at the next election?

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Grattan on Friday: Bitter struggle in Liberals for likely poisoned chalice, as Jacinta Price defects from Nationals – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-bitter-struggle-in-liberals-for-likely-poisoned-chalice-as-jacinta-price-defects-from-nationals-255634

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

In the new parliament the government is expected to need only the Greens to pass the legislation opposed by the Coalition. Counting is not finished but on present indications it won’t require any other Senate crossbenchers.

Given Labor’s enhanced position it makes much harder an independent’s job of holding the Labor government to account and pursuing their own agenda.

One independent who had considerable success pursuing his issues in the last parliament is ACT Senator David Pocock. Pocock saw a massive 18-point swing towards him at the election, easily finishing first, above Labor’s Katy Gallagher.

Pocock now faces the reality that, despite an increase in his vote share, his actual negotiating power is weakened.

Pocock joins us today to talk about the new Senate situation, his aspirations for the next three years and the election generally.

On his stunning result from the ACT,

It was a really humbling result to see so much support. At the last election, I said to Canberrans that I wanted to be accessible and accountable to them and then stand on my record and I really tried to do that. So I think it’s probably a combination of things. One, people wanting someone who’s actually going to stand up for the ACT.

Couple that with a campaign where Peter Dutton and the Coalition made it just so hard for Canberra Liberals. You had a situation where the ACT Senate candidate for the Libs, Jacob Vadakkedathu, was pushing back on public service cuts, was saying how desperately the national capital needs a convention centre and needs it to be funded at least partially by the feds.

On the results more broadly, while Labor saw a massive positive result, Pocock asserts that voters don’t want the status quo.

It’s clearly a big victory for the Labor Party, but I don’t think this is a vote for the status quo. We saw independents across the country making seats marginal, potentially winning seats or holding on to their seats. The swing towards independents was about the same as the swing towards the Labor party.

I think the task of this next parliament is to really crack on with dealing with the big challenges we face in a really constructive way. I don’t think people just want more of the same.

Asked what 2035 climate change target he would like to see, Pocock stresses now is not the time to be cautious,

I think we’ve got to be really ambitious. From what I’ve heard from experts, we need to be looking at [a] 75 to 85, 90% [2035 emissions reductions target]. This is a time to go really hard on this, and we’ll hear the Labor Party, we’ll hear the Coalition say that, well we’re a small jurisdiction, what we do is important but it’s not the big game, we’ve got to support our partners overseas. We are one of the biggest fossil fuel exporters in the world, and we’re one of the highest per capita emitters. So what we do actually really matters.

I think people want to see that sort of leadership. We’re being, I think, essentially conned now that places like Japan need our gas for their energy security – when Japan is now exporting more gas than we send to them.

Pocock highlights that the conduct from both sides during this campaign is why truth in political advertising laws are needed,

When it comes to something like electoral reform, we saw [Labor] do a deal with the Coalition under the guise of we need the major parties to agree on this and get it through parliament. Then when it comes to truth in political advertising laws, Which they’ve committed to doing, they introduced a bill and then they just shelved it because I think it was actually inconvenient for them – because we saw them during this election use some pretty questionable tactics. Both the major parties are doing this, and I think more and more Australians expect better, want better.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: David Pocock wants us to aim for up to 90% reduction in emissions by 2035 – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-david-pocock-wants-us-to-aim-for-up-to-90-reduction-in-emissions-by-2035-256218

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Issy Borley, Research Technician, CSIRO

Over the last decade, humanity’s emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) have stabilised after a period of huge growth. Average growth is now down to just 0.6% per year, compared to 2% per year in the previous decade. But levelling off isn’t the same as declining – and we’ve levelled off at a very high rate of emissions. The Global Carbon Project estimates human activities released a record high of 10.2 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC) in 2024.

Last year, the atmosphere’s concentration of CO₂ rose at the fastest rate on record. Over the last decade, atmospheric CO₂ increased an average of 2.4 parts per million (ppm) a year. But last year, concentrations jumped by 3.5 ppm, reaching 424 ppm in the atmosphere. These concentrations are more than 50% higher than the pre-industrial period.

While we’re burning more fossil fuels than ever, recent emissions growth has been offset by falling rates of deforestation and other land use emissions.

Why are CO₂ concentrations still rapidly increasing? We’re still pumping massive amounts of long-buried CO₂ into our atmosphere. The only way for this carbon to leave the atmosphere is through natural carbon sinks – and they’re struggling to keep up.

How do we know the amount of CO₂ in the atmosphere?

Perched on a remote and windy clifftop on Tasmania’s northwest tip lies the Kennaook/Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station. This station has an important job: monitoring baseline changes in atmospheric gases. The location was chosen because air here has travelled hundreds of kilometres over the ocean in an area unaffected by local pollution.

For decades, Australian scientists have directly measured the changes to the atmosphere here. Alongside other monitoring stations worldwide, this gives us an accurate and precise record of changes in greenhouse gases and ozone depleting chemicals in the atmosphere.

Filling the bathtub

Carbon dioxide is very good at trapping heat. Over the Earth’s 4.5 billion years, pulses of CO₂ have created hothouse worlds, very different to the pleasant climate humans have enjoyed since the last ice age, about 11,000 years ago. The last time CO₂ went past 400 ppm was likely more than two million years ago.

It’s easy to confuse CO₂ emissions and concentrations of CO₂ in the atmosphere. Emissions influence atmospheric concentrations, but they are not the same.

Releasing long-buried carbon back into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels and producing CO₂ emissions is like turning on the tap in a bathtub and the amount of water in the tub is the atmospheric concentration.

The Earth has natural ways of dealing with carbon dioxide. Plants, soils and oceans are carbon “sinks” – they all draw down carbon from the atmosphere and store it. Think of them as the bath’s plughole.

The problem is, we’re filling up the tub with CO₂ much faster than the Earth’s carbon sinks can pull them out. As a result, CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere rises. Atmospheric CO₂ matters because it is what actually influences climate.

If we apply current global emissions and scenarios where emissions decrease either steadily or rapidly to the CSIRO Simple Carbon-Climate Model, we can estimate how much our bathtub is likely to fill. These graphs show emissions must be significantly cut before we can start to see a fall in atmospheric concentration.

Why did CO₂ concentration jump last year?

The single largest influence in last year’s spike in CO₂ concentration is likely to be changes to carbon sinks.

Every year, oceans, forests and soils absorb about half the emissions humans produce. But this figure isn’t set – it changes as the Earth’s systems change.

For instance, plants grow more in wetter years and store more carbon in their structures through photosynthesis and growth.

But climate change is making fires more intense and more frequent. As trees burn, they release stored carbon back to the atmosphere. Emissions from enormous wildfires in Canada in 2023 and South America in 2024 likely contributed to the atmospheric CO₂ jump.

Recent research suggests a weakened biosphere has strongly contributed. Severe droughts across the northern hemisphere in 2024 cut the ability of the planet’s soils and plant life to soak up and store CO₂.

The speed at which carbon sinks soak up CO₂ depends on environmental conditions, which are largely out of our control. As climate change worsens, the capacity of natural carbon sinks to draw down our emissions will likely reduce.

In the bathtub analogy, water leaves the tub through the plughole. If the plughole narrows, less water can escape and our tub will fill up even faster.

The main lever we can control is the tap on the bathtub – the emissions we produce. Many nations are now cutting their emissions, but not enough to begin the sharp decline in concentration we need.

In the 1980s, the Earth’s thin, protective layer of ozone – just 10 parts per million – was being eaten away by chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other chemicals in fridges, air conditioners and aerosol cans. Nations replaced these chemicals and the ozone hole began to close. Fossil fuels are far more important to our current way of life than CFCs were. But we now have good options to replace them across many industries.

This is a crucial moment. Our current rate of emissions will only cause CO₂ concentrations and global temperatures to rise. Natural carbon sinks will not pull out enough carbon to stabilise our climate on a time frame meaningful to humans. The earlier the action and decrease in emissions, the better our future.

Issy Borley receives funding from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Cathy Trudinger does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Ray Langenfelds receives funding from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

– ref. Even as emissions level off, carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is growing faster than ever. Here’s why – https://theconversation.com/even-as-emissions-level-off-carbon-dioxide-in-the-atmosphere-is-growing-faster-than-ever-heres-why-254072

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew James Couzens, Lecturer in Digital Media, CQUniversity Australia

Donald Trump has said the United States should be applying tariffs to movies “produced in foreign lands”. This has the potential to deeply impact the Australian film industry.

Local crews are currently celebrating a boom in big budget production at studios on the Gold Coast, Sydney and Melbourne. Over the last five years, foreign production has represented almost half of all drama production expenditure in Australia.

But the history of Hollywood making movies in Australia warns us not to get complacent.

When times are good for Australian film crews they can be very good indeed. But global events can leave studios empty and film crew without work.

Read more:
How do you put a tariff on movies? Here’s what Trump’s plan could mean for Australia

How Hollywood influenced Australian cinema

Hollywood’s influence was felt in Australian production from the silent era.

For its 1927 adaptation of Marcus Clarke’s literary classic For the Term of His Natural Life, local production and distribution company Australasian Films hired Hollywood director Norman Dawn. They felt this was necessary to appeal to American audiences.

For most of the 20th century, Hollywood production used Australia for its exotic setting. Films like On the Beach (1959), Kangaroo (1952) and The Sundowners (1960) brought their crews from America, rather than using Australians.

By the late 1960s, Hollywood’s cultural dominance was seen as a serious problem.

The Australian federal government established new grant and investment schemes for local films, intended to establish Australian culture in response to American influence.

The local industry’s independence was fervently protected, and we saw the release of films like Picnic at Hanging Rock (1975) and Newsfront (1978), aimed at establishing a distinct Australian film culture.

The international box office success of George Miller’s 1979 film Mad Max motivated a shift to more commercial, Hollywood-aligned filmmaking in Australia. Many in the industry argued the film illustrated the value of pursuing a popular cinema modelled on American production practices.

This laid the groundwork for Hollywood to become even more integrated with the local production industry.

Studios and infrastructure

The 1988 opening of Village Roadshow Studios and the filming of the 1988 Mission Impossible television series on the Gold Coast ignited the relationship between the Australian film industry and Hollywood that exists today.

These studios were followed by Fox Studios Australia (now Disney Studios Australia) in Sydney, home to productions including The Matrix and Star Wars: Episodes I–III.

These studios acquired international investment from Hollywood studios and received significant state government support. They supported new collaborations between Hollywood and the Australian film industry, though some criticised this direction for Australian cinema.

Throughout the 1990s, there was a rapid increase in the quantity of footloose production – a term referring to films originating from Hollywood but shooting elsewhere to reduce costs.

The comparatively weak Australian dollar, low labour and construction costs, and strong state government incentives meant that blockbusters like The Matrix could cut their budgets by as much as a third by shooting in Australia rather than Hollywood.

The local industry grew as big budget Hollywood films created jobs for Australian production crews. These crews depended on a steady supply of foreign production, because local productions were not big enough to support local crews.

Bust

The Australian film production industry was thrust into crisis in the second half of the 2000s, when a strong Australian dollar coupled with the global financial crisis wiped out the supply of footloose productions.

In 2008–09, foreign production brought just A$31 million into the country, from a high in 2003–04 of $519 million, adjusted for inflation.

This saw screen employment drop and some production facilities close.

Industry lobbying encouraged the federal government to introduce a 16.5% location tax offset for foreign films shooting in Australia, and a 30% tax offset for post, digital and visual effects.

Combined with the weakening Australian dollar, this brought Hollywood production back with a vengeance by 2014–15.

But the impact that a dry spell of blockbuster production could have on the Australian industry gave Hollywood producers significant negotiating power. In response, state and federal governments offered heavy hitters like Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017) and Thor: Ragnarok (2017) tens of millions of dollars on top of existing offsets.

Boom

In 2020–21, the expenditure of foreign films shooting in Australia more than doubled compared to previous years. This was due to Australia, and especially Queensland, being one of the few places in the world where production could take place during COVID lockdowns.

Foreign production, especially on the Gold Coast, exploded.

Studio infrastructure was stretched to breaking point, with some films using makeshift studio spaces like the Gold Coast Convention and Exhibition Centre.

Growing capacity became a policy priority, and significant investment was directed towards training crew and expanding studio facilities.

The boom in Hollywood expenditure in Australia has resulted in an expansion of local production capability through crew training and investment in facilities.

But, as the global financial crisis bust shows, growth can be a double edged sword. It requires a consistent supply of footloose production to sustain itself.

The anxiety around Trump’s recently proposed tariffs demonstrates the Australian film industry remains dependent on footloose production.

Policy must now address how to exploit boom periods to support sustainability during the inevitable bust.

Andrew James Couzens has received funding from The Gold Coast Film Commission.

– ref. 100 years of boom and bust: a potted history of Hollywood’s long relationship with Australia – https://theconversation.com/100-years-of-boom-and-bust-a-potted-history-of-hollywoods-long-relationship-with-australia-256079