Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tania King, Associate Professor in Social Epidemiology, The University of Melbourne

A freeze on aid entering the Gaza Strip, imposed by Israel last week, means once again tons of urgent medical supplies and medicines are stuck at the border, with delivery uncertain.

But supplies are only one part of the picture, and their usefulness is limited without trained health-care workers who know how to treat and care for patients.

Health-care workers are the most critical component of any health system. Despite being protected under international law, they have been killed and injured at alarming rates in Gaza since October 7 2023.

There is also growing evidence of inhumane treatment and abuse of health-care workers in Israeli detention. This has serious implications for the health of Palestinians, in both the short and long term.

What is the state of the health-care system?

The health system in the Gaza Strip is in ruins. The Israeli Defence force has carried out at least 670 attacks on health services and facilities since October 7 2023.

The most recent World Health Organization update in February reported only 50% of hospitals were partially functional, and 41% of primary health-care facilities (for example, general practice clinics and pharmacies) were functional.

The latest report by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine indicates only four out of the 22 health centres it runs are operational.

This widespread and systematic destruction of health infrastructure and equipment puts health professionals and their patients in immediate danger. Shortages of medical supplies and lack of reliable electricity and water make it harder for health-care workers to provide care.

What about health-care workers?

More than 1,000 health-care workers – including nurses, surgeons and other clinicians, paramedics, pharmacists and technicians – have been killed in Palestinian territories in the last 17 months, according to estimates by the United Nations and Palestinian monitoring group Healthcare Workers Watch.

In September last year, a UN inquiry found Israeli security forces have deliberately killed, wounded, arrested, detained, mistreated and tortured medical personnel and targeted medical vehicles.

The latest report from Healthcare Workers Watch documents 384 cases of unlawful detention of health-care workers in Palestine since the current war began, 339 of them from Gaza.

Of these, 96 have provided testimonies of inhumane treatment. At least 185 are known to remain in detention and 24 are missing after hospital invasions.

Physicians for Human Rights Israel and The Guardian have also documented testimonies of medical personnel released from Israeli detention. Many say they were detained while carrying out medical duties.

They report being subjected to interrogations without legal representation, medical neglect and starvation, abuse and torture.

One senior consultant surgeon, Dr Issam Abu Ajwa, told journalists from The Guardian and Arab Reporters for Investigative Journalism he was arrested while performing surgery and then detained for months without charge.

He alleges prison guards were given instructions to deliberately damage his hands: “They said they wanted to make sure I could never return to work”.

The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) did not respond to the individual allegations but told The Guardian “suspects of terrorist activities” have been arrested and detained during fighting in the Gaza Strip. In a statement, the IDF said: “Those who are not involved in terrorist activity are released back to the Gaza Strip as soon as possible”.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk has said Israel’s claims hospitals are being used for military purposes are vague, unsubstantiated and “in some cases, they appear to be contradicted by publicly available information”.

What does this mean for people in Gaza?

Before October 7, Gaza’s health system was already unable to meet the needs of its population. The escalation of those needs due to the bombardment and reduced sanitation in a shattered health system is catastrophic.

Losing health-care workers – whether they are killed, injured or incarcerated – further depletes an overburdened system. As a result, ordinary people have reduced access to skilled and qualified personnel. And so do junior medical staff, meaning they miss out on opportunities to learn from the experience of senior staff.

All residents of Gaza, including health-care workers and their families, face serious threats to their health. A lack of adequate sanitation, nutritious food and safe water compounds other issues, such as increased risk of respiratory and diarrhoeal diseases, as well as complications during pregnancy and birth.

The UN estimates 50,000 women are currently pregnant in the Gaza Strip, with about 5,500 due to give birth in the next month. About 1,400 of these will require a caesarean section.

What about the long term?

Israel’s freeze on humanitarian aid, and the threat of resuming aerial bombardments, makes the planning and delivery of health services increasingly difficult.

In a population of 2.1 million there are large unmet needs from pre-existing conditions. The UN estimates 45,000 people in Gaza have heart disease, 650,000 have high blood pressure, more than 2,000 are diagnosed with cancer each year and more than 485,000 have mental illnesses.

Many more diseases will emerge in the aftermath of war. We have already seen a resurgence of polio in Gaza.

Without enough health staff, there is reduced capacity for public health surveillance and control – for example routine screening services and immunisation programs – and this increases the risk of disease outbreaks.

Health workers also play a vital role in training the next generation of health professionals. Disrupting this chain makes it harder to rebuild the health workforce and the health system more generally.

The impacts of war can’t simply be calculated in terms of fatalities, injuries and damaged health-care centres or facilities.

What’s also damaged is a shared commitment to humanitarian principles and the respect for human rights and international law.

Tania King receives funding from the Australian Research Council, National Health and Medical Research Council, Medical Research Future Fund, veski and Suicide Prevention Australia.

Fiona Stanley receives current National Health and Medical Research Council and Australian Research Council funding as a mentor not Chief Investigator. I am retired University Professor and Institute Director – now only Patron.

Guy Gillor is a Jewish-Israeli-Australian researcher and policy analyst that has advocated for justice and equal rights in his homeland of Palestine/ Israel from a young age, and is currently involved with a number of Jewish-Australian anti-war campaigns. Guy currently works as Manager of Strategy Policy and Research for an Aboriginal Community Controlled Organisation.

Rob Moodie is affiliated with the Medical Association for the Prevention of War (MAPW – national councillor) and Quit Nukes. He has received funding from National Health and Medical Research Council.

Tilman Ruff is affiliated with International Physicians for the Prevention of War (board member), International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons Australia (board member, co-representative to International Steering Group), Medical Association for Prevention of War (international councillor), Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons Scientific Network (member), Initiative for Peacebuilding, University of Melbourne (board member).

– ref. Health-care workers should not be a target. In Gaza, their detention and death affect the entire population – https://theconversation.com/health-care-workers-should-not-be-a-target-in-gaza-their-detention-and-death-affect-the-entire-population-251146

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sally Baker, Associate Professor, Migration and Education, Australian National University

The damage inflicted by ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred on Queensland and northern New South Wales has been extensive. Several areas have had infrastructure badly damaged, and many homes have been destroyed.

With natural disasters set to become “situation normal” as the impacts of heating oceans and climate change accelerate, it’s crucial Australia consider contingency workforce planning.

Disasters such as these expose the extent of the severe skills shortages experienced in many parts of Australia, but especially in the regions. Each year, regional Australia loses to cities thousands of professional and trade-related people whose skills cannot be replaced.

Rebuilding, restoring and rehabilitating the affected areas will require the immediate and sustained work of skilled workers – but these are in short supply in many places.

Already it was hard to find people with the necessary skills to undertake infrastructure maintenance. Now people affected by ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred are joining long wait lists for electricians, plumbers, builders and other services.

Where are the workers when you need them?

The situation is stark. There are not enough skilled workers to support Australia’s day-to-day building and maintenance needs, let alone in response to disasters.

The federal government agency Jobs and Skills Australia estimates 67 occupations under the category “Technicians and Trades Workers” are in persistent shortage. This represents a third of the skills shortages in Australia.

These shortages are much more acute in regional, rural and remote parts of Australia. In these places, location is commonly cited as the reason why suitable applicants do not take the job.

This labour is not just a problem for disaster responses. These skills gaps are also pushing up construction costs, frustrating building works needed to relieve the housing pressure Australia-wide.

The situation is so bad states and territories are competing for tradespeople to move. The Western Australia government’s Build a Life in WA campaign, for instance, offers cash incentives to attract building and construction professionals, and skilled tradespeople.

Australia’s skills gaps are so entrenched, education and training schemes – such as apprenticeships – are not going to help quickly enough.

Instead, some see skilled migration as a possible solution. In 2024, peak bodies such as the Business Council of Australia and Master Builders Australia lobbied the Australian federal government for changes to the ways that migration can respond to the skills needs. They argue 90,000 new tradies were needed by the end of 2024.

However, Australia is competing with many other countries for skilled tradespeople. Traditional sources of migrant labour may not provide the number of skilled migrants needed.

An untapped source of skilled workers: refugees

One solution to these problems is exploring the untapped potential of the more than 122 million people who are displaced around the world. Many have the skills and experience that countries like Australia need.

One pilot program, the Skilled Refugee Labour Agreement Pilot, is being trialled by the Australian Department of Home Affairs.

This scheme provides concessions to the usual visa requirements for skilled migration. This helps refugees to overcome the administrative hurdles that exclude them from regular processes (such as not having a passport).

With this flexibility, the program — led by not-for-profit group Talent Beyond Boundaries — will match 500 refugees to employers by mid-2025.

To date, 40% of workers accessing this pathway in Australia have been recruited by employers in regional areas. Roughly 40% are technicians and trades workers.

This kind of solution helps the Australian government expand its response to the ever-increasing numbers of displaced peoples globally.

It also provides opportunities for employers to source skilled workers through the matching facility offered by Talent Beyond Boundaries.

Using their extensive Talent Catalog, Talent Beyond Boundaries can connect employers in professions with key skills gaps, and in areas experiencing severe skills shortages, to a pool of more than 120,000 skilled workers looking for an opportunity to restart their careers and lives in safety.

Recognising the skills in our midst

A second creative solution is to leverage the skills and expertise that already exist in Australia’s migrant and refugee communities.

The Billion Dollar Benefit campaign is spearheaded by not-for-profit group Settlement Services International. It estimates one in four permanent migrants in Australia are working below their skill level. The cost of failing to leverage these existing skills is about A$1.25 billion over five years, it estimates.

Tailoring solutions

We’re currently researching the economic, social and policy dimensions of skilled refugee labour mobility in addressing skills shortages in regional Australia, particularly for small and medium-sized employers.

Working with partner organisations Talent Beyond Boundaries and a think tank called the Regional Australia Institute, researchers at UNSW and ANU have been speaking to employers, community leaders, employment and settlement services in regional areas across the country. We’ve also been speaking with skilled refugee workers who have settled in regional Australia through the pilot.

What we are hearing is that businesses are desperate for workers ready to go. They are frustrated by the costly, lengthy and complicated processes of sourcing talent from overseas. The costs are especially prohibitive for small and medium enterprises.

Highly skilled refugees have told us the Skilled Refugee Labour Agreement Pilot has helped them regain a foothold in their careers, and rebuild their and their children’s lives, while also helping meet regional skills shortages.

Programs matching skilled refugees with employers and regions desperate for skilled workers can be a win-win.

Sally Baker receives funding from the Australian Refugee Council (Linkage: LP220100286) and the Australia Centre for Student Equity and Success to research on issues relating to refugee resettlement and educational and employment access.

Louise Olliff has previously done consultancy work for Settlement Services International and is funded by the ARC. She is a part-time Senior Policy Advisor for the Refugee Council of Australia. Talent Beyond Boundaries is a partner organisation in the ARC Linkage Grant she is funded through.

– ref. Regional Australia needs more workers to rebuild after disasters like Alfred. Skilled refugees could help – https://theconversation.com/regional-australia-needs-more-workers-to-rebuild-after-disasters-like-alfred-skilled-refugees-could-help-251909

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Claire Matthews, Associate Professor and Head of School, School of Accountancy, Economics and Finance, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University

Adrian Orr has so far not spoken about the reasons for his recent and unexpected resignation as Reserve Bank governor, but the sudden departure caused understandable speculation.

One suggestion has been that Orr was at odds with the government over his requirement that the Australian-owned New Zealand banks hold high levels of capital compared to other countries.

Whether this was indeed a reason for Orr’s resignation we can’t say. But it does raise important questions about Reserve Bank – and government – policies.

Set by the Reserve Bank, capital requirements specify the amount of equity banks need to have to cover future losses. Since 2022, banks have been required to hold enough equity to be able to survive a 1-in-200-year event.

But holding onto this much capital is expensive for banks. The higher requirements have led to higher interest rates – making it more expensive for people and businesses to borrow.

The government has long criticised the current capital requirements. Last August, Finance Minister Nicola Willis said she was open to making the Reserve Bank ease its regulation of banks – if a strong enough case could be made that it would improve competition and efficiency without undermining the stability of the financial system.

Making lending attractive again

The 2022 capital requirements meant the “big four” banks (ANZ, Westpac, ASB and BNZ) had to increase equity from 10.5% to 18% of their risk-weighted assets over the next seven years. Smaller banks had to increase their equity to 16%.

The new requirements were met with some resistance. This was due, in part, to concerns about how the move would affect bank customers.

To meet higher capital requirements, banks focused on lending that generated higher returns. They also charged higher interest rates to compensate for the increased levels of capital required for the loans.

Financial analytics company S&P Global described the rules as the toughest bank capital requirements in the world and noted the risk of reduced access to credit, particularly for smaller businesses.

Calls for change

Even before Orr’s resignation, members of the coalition government had called for changes to the capital requirements.

In January, ACT leader David Seymour sought information from the Ministry for Regulation on the issue.

Seymour has said going back to the former levels of bank capital would support economic growth by enabling more lending to business at more affordable interest rates.

In its study on the banking sector, the Commerce Commission also suggested revising bank capital requirements to address competition issues.

The 2022 capital requirements have influenced the type of lending banks do and the interest rates they have applied.

The more capital banks have to hold against a loan, the higher the interest rate required to cover that cost. This means home loans are more expensive under the current rules. If the requirements reduced (and nothing else changes) home loan interest rates would reduce.

At the same time. other types of lending – such as business loans – would become more attractive if capital requirements drop and banks have to have less equity on hand.

With a limited pool of funds available to lend, this may mean banks make fewer home loans and more personal and business loans.

Careful consideration needed

In the end, there is no guarantee a new Reserve Bank governor will reduce the capital requirements. And, under the current rules, the governor is the one who gets to make that call.

While the government has some say in the appointment process, the Reserve Bank board is responsible for recommending the next appointee.

Whoever finally takes the post will have to weigh up the benefits of any rule changes with the potential risks – including what the uncertainty of frequent rule changes do to the wider economy.

They will also need to take into account why Orr pushed for the higher capital requirements to begin with. He worried that in the event of a global financial disaster, the four major Australian-owned banks might abandon New Zealand customers.

Having the higher levels of capital forced the banks to have a greater financial cushion against losses and reduced the risk of bank failure. And ultimately, no government wants a bank to fail, with the personal and economic costs that would entail.

Claire Matthews is a Senior Fellow of Finsia and a Certified Member of INFINZ. She received a grant from the RBNZ to assist with expenses associated with her PhD in 2004.

– ref. Calculated risk: will the next Reserve Bank governor relax capital requirements for banks? – https://theconversation.com/calculated-risk-will-the-next-reserve-bank-governor-relax-capital-requirements-for-banks-251713

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Deanna Tepper, Associate Lecturer, Psychology, La Trobe University

Domestic cats have been living alongside humans for an estimated 10,000 years, first as rodent control and then as the couch-warmers we know and love. A far cry from the lone predator lifestyle of their ancestors, today millions of cats worldwide live within human families. More than 30% of households in the United States and Australia own a cat.

We highly value the relationships we share with these furry companions, frequently considering them friends, family members or even “children”.

And this sentiment may be shared, with cats demonstrating affection through seeking out our company, physical contact and engaging in play. Like a secret language between friends, there is even evidence to suggest cats have developed specific vocalisations to communicate with their owners.

Despite this, cats are typically seen as aloof and elusive. But how true is this? Do cats form friendships beyond us?

A complex recipe

Firstly, what does a cat friendship look like? Behaviours that may indicate friendship between two cats include social grooming, such as licking each other’s fur, head rubbing, spending time together and playing together.

In contrast, behaviours such as charging, fighting or chasing may indicate a disagreement is brewing or already underway.

Cats also have very few “conflict defusing” signals in their behavioural repertoire, choosing to run away or avoid each other rather than attempt reconciliation during conflict.

Such disharmony can be stressful for the cats. Many owners end up wondering how to maximise the chances of fostering a positive relationship between their cat and other animals – or if they should get them a “friend” at all.

The recipe for successful feline friendships is a little complex. Research on cat dynamics in unowned, free-ranging cats has found close relationships are more likely to form – and last – if they are:

• both female
• grow up together
• are closely related and
• live in close proximity to one another.

Indoor-only cats can also form strong friendships with other cats in the household. Similar to unowned free-ranging cats, cats who have been introduced to one another at a young age, who are related, and who have lived together for a long-time, are more likely to be close friends.

However, among de-sexed cats, male pairs show closer bonds than male-female pairs. Female pairs are the least likely to be friends.

Their first introduction is also the most predictive factor for positive long-term relationships.

What about outdoor friends?

We know less about the social lives of pet cats that are allowed to roam outside, but the default behaviour for most cats is one of competitiveness and territorialism.

That said, cats will typically try to avoid confrontations with others.

While some research has found interactions between roaming cats are usually calm, they can and do sometimes result in fights – particularly if food is around or they venture into an unfamiliar unowned cats’ territory.

To complicate things further, two cats are more likely to fight within a household if they are allowed outside – likely due to bringing in unfamiliar scents.

We also can’t forget the problematic relationship cats can have with native fauna, sometimes decimating local wildlife populations. In many places, especially in parts of Australia, cats are not allowed outdoors for this reason.

There are also dangers to their own health and safety if allowed to roam, such as misadventure, risks from road traffic or even disgruntled neighbours.

Cats and dogs … in harmony?

While research has mainly explored cats’ friendship with each other, cats can also have positive relationships with other species. For example, while cats and dogs are commonly depicted as mortal enemies, they can live harmoniously, often sleeping and playing together.

However, once again the importance of early exposure and slow introductions in developing this relationship cannot be overstated.

Interestingly, it also appears that indoor cats are friendlier towards their canine companions than cats allowed outdoors. This is possibly because outdoor cats may be exposed to multiple dogs, many of which aren’t happy to see them.

Who’s your cat’s closest friend?

So, should your pet cat have a friend? As you may have guessed by now, the answer to cat friendships is complicated.

If you do plan to introduce your cat to a new companion, here are some suggestions to follow. Firstly, cat introductions should be slow and supervised to increase the chance of a positive first meeting.

Your house should also have plenty of safe spaces, toys and puzzle feeders, scratching posts, and separate food and litter areas in a quiet spot. Providing these resources will help prevent resource guarding (where cats stop other cats from accessing things they need or like) and reduce conflict between the animals.

At the end of the day, while cats can form friendships with other animals, they aren’t crucial to their health and happiness.

Your cat’s closest relationship is the one it has with you. Ensuring they have lots of opportunities to bask in your attention and engage in play is likely enough for even the most social of felines. After all, they have their “aloof and elusive” reputations to uphold.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Do cats have ‘friends’, or do they always vie for territory? Animal experts weigh in – https://theconversation.com/do-cats-have-friends-or-do-they-always-vie-for-territory-animal-experts-weigh-in-249013

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Hutchinson, Professor in Theoretical Physics, University of Otago

As part of a major reform of the science sector, the government plans to set up a research organisation focused on emerging technologies, including quantum technologies.

The first quantum revolution – based on understanding how electrons behave in semiconductors to make computer chips possible – brought us computers and smart phones.

We are now in the middle of the second wave of quantum capabilities, which heralds quantum computing, enhanced sensing systems and secure communication technologies.

New Zealand has a strong history in quantum physics, tracing back to Ernest Rutherford’s pioneering investigations of the structure of the atom. More recently, quantum-optics physicist Dan Walls made numerous contributions to understanding the quantum nature of light that are now used in precision measurements, including at the gravitational wave detector LIGO in the US.

Walls and his co-worker Crispin Gardiner established a school of physics in New Zealand that trained many of the world’s leading quantum opticians.

The legacy of this is that New Zealand enjoys an enviable reputation for its contributions to quantum science. But to turn this legacy into a thriving commercial sector, we need sufficient investment to train the next generation of STEM-literate young people and to take the world-leading ideas developed here out to the market.

The weird world of quantum physics

Earlier this month, the United Nations launched the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology to mark a century since the initial formulation of quantum mechanics by Austrian theoretical physicist Erwin Schrödinger and Germany’s Werner Heisenberg, of “cat” and “uncertainty” fame, respectively.

The moniker “quantum” comes from another German physicist, Max Planck. His assertion was that energy could only come in discrete packets, or quanta, such as the energy in light being made up of photons.

The logical consequence of this, according to Schrödinger and Heisenberg, is that waves and particles are just the extreme limits of how we can view the substance of the world. An electron, which we tend to think of as a particle, can have wave-like properties. Light, which we consider a wave, can also behave like a particle.

Understanding the wave-like properties of electrons is what underpins the electronics industry. Understanding the quantum nature of light gives us lasers and optical-fibre communications technologies.

However, the technologies we have developed so far are just the beginning. The second quantum revolution utilises the more weird and wonderful consequences of Planck’s seemingly innocuous “quantisation” of energy.

As long as we don’t look, a quantum particle can be in a superposition of two states at once.

In Schrödinger’s example, a cat in a closed box could be alive and dead at the same time, until we check. Similarly, as an electron spins around its axis, it can have its spin axis pointing up or down. This two-option system can be used to make bits – the zero and one binary building blocks of all computation.

In the quantum world, a new option is allowed: the superposition of zero and one bits. It turns out that, with this new option available, we can construct some algorithms that are faster than anything available through classical logic. This is the promise of quantum computing, the advent of which is on our doorstep.

The risks and rewards of quantum computing

Quantum computation offers both benefits and risks. For example, a quantum algorithm set to surpass classical computing is known as Grover’s search algorithm.

This will speed up the search of vast quantities of information and could optimise logistics, investigations of molecular configurations for drug discovery and myriad other opportunities in computation and design. But it could also compromise privacy and expose people to the attentions of bad actors.

Much of our current information security is based on an encryption system developed in 1977 and known as RSA after the authors of its description (Rivest, Shamir and Adleman). RSA is based on the factorisation of big numbers into their unique prime factors.

RSA2048 is currently unbreakable by modern computers. But a recent survey suggested it could be broken in a day by a quantum computer developed within the next 15 years. This would render current encryption for banking and all information exchange obsolete.

New encryption protocols have been developed but need to be implemented to protect information and money.

Technical challenges of quantum technologies

Quantum properties can also be used to make sensors for electric, magnetic and gravitational fields, leading to applications in medicine and environmental monitoring, but also military and nefarious activities.

The development of quantum technologies faces huge technological challenges and can only proceed effectively through international collaboration.

However, the very nature of the benefits and risks can lead to protectionism and drive the pursuit of national advantage. Because of this, there is a real threat to access to supply chains and new technology.

It is therefore imperative New Zealand is part of international collaborations developing these technologies. We may not build our own quantum computing facility, but we do provide important niche expertise.

For example, we have capability in the development of quantum memories to store quantum information and in quantum transduction (where a quantum state of light can be transferred from one frequency to another) which will be essential for networking quantum computers.

Last month, the OECD published a quantum technologies policy primer. This provides an early foundation for governments to understand the benefits and risks of quantum technologies and outlines the policy opportunities and challenges.

It highlights the need for early, anticipatory governance to ensure equitable benefits accrue from these new technologies. And it identifies a critical risk in the looming lack of appropriately skilled young people.

For New Zealand, this stresses the ever growing need for investment to ensure we can train, attract and retain top talent. New Zealand has a solid foundation in quantum science. It is imperative we capitalise on it for the benefit and security of the nation.

David Hutchinson receives funding through MBIE’s Quantum Technology Aotearoa platform and from the Ministry of Education through the Dodd-Walls Centre of Research Excellence. Until September 2024 he was a departmental science advisor to MBIE, and he is a member of the OECD Global Forum on Technology quantum expert panel.

– ref. Quantum technologies are changing our world – what does NZ need to be part of the next revolution? – https://theconversation.com/quantum-technologies-are-changing-our-world-what-does-nz-need-to-be-part-of-the-next-revolution-249466

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Maxine Newlands, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Policy Futures, University of Queensland, Adjunct Principle Research Fellow, Cairns Institute, James Cook University

In 2022, the national vote for independents or minor parties was the highest in almost a century. A third of Australians voted for someone who wasn’t running for Labor or the Coalition.

This has been interpreted as a phenomenon largely playing out in inner-city electorates.

But this election, it will pay to keep an eye on independents running in regional and rural Australia. Growing grassroots support suggests they, along with minor parties, will pose a major challenge to the two-party dominance that’s slowly diminishing.

Building independent momentum

Independents and minor parties have long been a feature of Australian politics, despite Australia’s political setup favouring a two-party system.

But as successive federal elections have shown, traditional two-party voting is changing.

In 2019, one in four voters preferred minor or independent candidates. In 2022, it was one in three.

Pollsters predict on two-candidate preferred, there will be a swing towards independents in regional and rural seats, and swings against them in the inner cities.

Labor movements have been drifting away from their manufacturing heartland, towards cities and metropolitan issues. The Coalition, meanwhile, has held steady in the cities and even grown in regional areas, but declined in rural seats.

In 2013, the Community Independents Project was cofounded by Cathy McGowan and Alana Johnson, targeting inner-city seats.

Then, six weeks before the 2019 federal election, Climate 200 emerged as a second network of independent, community-minded candidates.

By 2022, the results were reflected in both the upper and lower house, with ten independents elected to the House of Representatives – the largest crossbench since 1934 – and ten of the 40 incoming senators representing minor parties or independents.

Now, they have their sights set on regional or provincial and rural seats. They are repeating the 2022 strategy of mostly women candidates issuing a challenge to Liberals in formerly “safe” seats.

‘Kitchen table’ campaigners

Claiming the two major parties have abandoned regional and rural Australia, independents are pitching themselves as the solution.

However, they take care to distinguish their goals from the Teal movement’s focus on city seats.

Candidates include former teachers, nurses, lawyers, regional health leaders, financial education specialists, natural resources managers, community support centre chief executives, solar-energy innovators, and a radio show host.

Health, wellbeing, regional access to medical facilities and the housing crisis are key issues. This is because construction lags behind population growth in areas such as Queensland’s Sunshine Coast and the outer northwestern suburbs of Sydney and outer west of Melbourne.

The strategy is simple: conversations around the kitchen table, community centre meetings, and “listening campaigns” focusing on hyper-local issues.

It’s a movement that pays homage to a more direct model of democracy.

Big money, big aims

A Community Independent candidate is supported by a network of organisations including the Regional Voices Fund, Climate 200, Voices AU, Community Independent Projects plus other media, legal and branding firms.

While the candidates may differ in background and even in policy priorities, the idea is they represent the community, not the interests of a party. A focus on climate change is also key.

The movement is aiming to raise $2 million for rural and regional candidates, through the Regional Voices Fund. The target is getting five regional and rural crossbenchers into the next parliament.

So far, the regional fund is supporting 12 candidates:

• one each in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia

• four in New South Wales

• and five in country Victoria.

Priority will be given to defending key independent seats, including Indi in southeast Victoria, where Helen Haines holds a 1.4% margin against the Liberal Party’s Ross Lyman.

Of the 35 independent candidates supported by the Community Independent movement, four came close in 2022 and are recontesting.

Caz Heise will try again for the New South Wales seat of Cowper, currently held by the Nationals on a margin of just 2.4%.

Another Nationals-held NSW seat, Calare, will be challenged again by Kate Hook, who attracted 40% of the vote in 2022.

In Victoria, Alex Dyson cut the Liberal margin from 10.2% to 3.5% in Wannon in the previous election, and will be hoping to win this time.

And in Queensland, Suzie Holt will try again for the seat of Groom. Previously a very safe Liberal seat, there was a 13.65% swing against the party in 2022.

A primed electorate

The ground is fertile for success. Take Queensland as an example.

It’s the state with the most regional seats outside the capital. In 2019, Queensland saw a substantial growth in a minor party and independent vote, propelled largely by a regional, populist and conservative backlash against progressive metropolitan policy agendas.

Almost 90% of Queensland voters endorsed a major party in 1996, but just 70% did so in 2019.

Queensland’s politics is shaped by populism, with distrust of outsiders, elites and people from southern states. Such slogans such as “don’t take my coal job and I won’t take your soy latte” are readily deployed, priming a disenfranchised electorate to look for alternatives outside the usual dichotomy.

In WA, changes to the Legislative Council on a state level remove the distinction between city and country members of the upper house. It’s ignited a similar city vs country divide.

So while the regions have much lower populations than cities, due to preferential and proportional voting systems, independents and minor parties can have an outsized influence on politics without being in government.

Though if minority government predictions prove correct, successful candidates may find themselves in government anyway.

Maxine Newlands is affiliated with Australian Political Studies Association, Environmental Politics and Policy group as co-convenor of the group.

– ref. Independents took cities by storm last election. This time, they’ve got regional Australia in their sights – https://theconversation.com/independents-took-cities-by-storm-last-election-this-time-theyve-got-regional-australia-in-their-sights-250894

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sharon Lewin, Melbourne Laureate Professor, University of Melbourne; Director, The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity

On March 11, 2020, as COVID continued to spread rapidly around the globe, the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared a pandemic.

More than 7 million people have since died from COVID. The virus, and the public health measures enacted to control it, have had far-reaching effects on societies around the world.

Five years on, the virus continues to circulate. But, thanks to vaccines and immunity acquired from infections, hospitalisations and deaths due to COVID are vastly less frequent than in previous years.

Meanwhile, long COVID continues to have a major impact on people’s lives. Estimates suggest more than 400 million people around the world have had or are currently living with long COVID.

At this point, Australia and the world must take the lessons of COVID – in areas from surveillance, to outbreak response, to vaccines and therapeutics – to be better prepared for the next pandemic.

Some areas we went right – and wrong

Our diagnostic laboratories across Australia were well prepared. Laboratories at the Doherty Institute diagnosed the first case of COVID in Australia and were the first to isolate and share the virus globally in early 2020.

At the same time, a national public health response was quickly put in place. This involved measures such as closing borders, setting up testing centres, and limiting gatherings.

But there are several areas where we could have mobilised more effectively.

During the early stages of the pandemic, there were, at times, challenges with sharing data as well as biological samples and the ingredients for COVID tests between the different states and territories.

For example, there are currently restrictions in place that limit sharing of virus strains between states and territories. But when a new strain emerges, many laboratories need access to it to evaluate their testing capabilities.

One recommendation from an independent 2024 review of the federal government’s COVID response was an Australian Centre for Disease Control. An interim version was launched in early 2024 and the Australian government is investing A$251.7 million in this important initiative.

The goal for the new centre for disease control will be to provide independent technical advice on infectious diseases to government. It will also facilitate rapid integration of data from all states and territories leading to a more unified response.

At the start of a pandemic, we need to understand everything about the new virus and at great speed. This needs systems in place in “peace time”, ready to be mobilised in “war time”.

Back in 2020, we had protocols ready for hospitalised patients and intensive care units to collect specimens and also start new clinical trials. But we were not prepared on many other fronts, for example to collect samples or study how COVID was transmitted in the community or in different key groups.

Every day counts at the start of a pandemic.

Harnessing medical technologies

Relatively recent technological advances in both diagnostics (RAT tests) and vaccine development (the use of messenger RNA, which gives our body genetic instructions to fight COVID) have put us in a strong position to be at the cutting edge in any pandemic response.

Moderna, one of the two companies that pioneered the mRNA vaccines, has established its Asia-Pacific headquarters in Melbourne. CSL, which made the AstraZeneca COVID vaccines in Australia and manufactures several other vaccines, has now incorporated mRNA in its repertoire.

This capability means Australians could have immediate access to mRNA vaccines in the event of another pandemic. We could also potentially manufacture these vaccines for low- and middle-income countries in our region.

But what if we can’t make an effective vaccine to fight a future pandemic? This is a situation we must be prepared for, as we’ve seen with infections such as HIV, where after 40 years of trying and billions of dollars spent, we still don’t have a vaccine.

In such a situation, we will need to rely on antiviral drugs. The way we currently make antiviral drugs takes significantly longer to develop than vaccines. And although we have some broad spectrum antiviral drugs, the most potent antivirals are very specific – meaning one drug treats only one type of virus.

To be better prepared for future pandemics, many groups around the world are working on developing a library of drugs that work against whole families of viruses that could cause the next pandemic.

Another approach is to develop totally new technologies that are fully tested for one virus, but can be easily adapted to a new virus. This approach could allow more rapid deployment, as the details of safety and dosing would already be understood.

This is one of the major goals of the recently launched Cumming Global Centre for Pandemic Therapeutics based at the Doherty Institute.

These ambitious efforts will require global collaboration, sharing resources and engagement of the private sector.

Once we have a vaccine or drug that works, we need agreed systems in place to ensure widespread equitable access. We fell seriously short of this goal with COVID. Some low- and middle-income countries received vaccines months or years later than high income countries. For treatments, antivirals such as Paxlovid were never available in many countries.

This is one goal of an agreement led by the WHO, called the “pandemic accord”, to have member states agree on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response. But after years of discussion, there remains no binding agreement.

Preparing for the next pandemic

As COVID was (partly due to advances in technology) the most intensively studied pandemic in human history, we have a unique resource in the record of what happened to inform our response to any future pandemic.

And this is likely a matter of when, not if. New infectious disease outbreaks have continued to emerge over the past five years, including mpox, which was declared a public health emergency of international concern in July 2022 and again in August 2024.

Right now, there’s an outbreak of a new viral disease in the Congo, the origins of which have still not been identified.

We know bats, thought to be the source of the coronavirus behind the COVID pandemic, carry an enormous spectrum of viruses that potentially threaten us. But new pandemics can also arise through mosquitoes and close contact with other animals.

Pandemics are global, not national, problems. We are at a pivotal time where countries including Australia must step up their commitments to this global effort. This will need politicians to rely on the evidence and lessons learned from COVID as well as private and public investment.

Unfortunately, five years down the track, we still have a long way to go to be prepared for the next pandemic.

Sharon Lewin receives funding for her research from the National Health and Medical Research Council, the National Institutes of Health, the American Foundation of AIDS Research, mRNA Victoria, the Medical Research Future Fund and Gilead Sciences. Her institution has received funding from the National Foundation for Australia China Relations. She has received honoraria paid to her personally for participation in advisory boards for Gilead Sciences, Merck. Viiv Healthcare, Abbvie, Esfam and Immunocore. She is the Director of the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity and the Cumming Global Centre for Pandemic Therapeutics. She is the immediate past President of the International AIDS Society. The Doherty Institute has provided modelling and advice to the Australian government pertaining to COVID.

Peter C. Doherty does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. 5 years since COVID was declared a pandemic, we’re still poorly prepared for the next one – https://theconversation.com/5-years-since-covid-was-declared-a-pandemic-were-still-poorly-prepared-for-the-next-one-245362

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Deborah Green, Senior Lecturer, UniSA Education Futures, University of South Australia

Bullying is one of the top concerns Australian parents have about their children’s health.

Unfortunately about one in four Australian students between Year 4 and Year 9 report being bullied at least every few weeks.

The federal government has recently set up a six month “rapid review” to look at what schools are doing and how best to address bullying.

But what can you do if your child is being bullied at school?

Read more:
There’s a new ‘rapid review’ into school bullying. Research shows we need to involve the whole school to stop it

What is bullying?

Recognising a child is being bullied and knowing what to do about it can be difficult for parents.

It’s important to understand what is and isn’t bullying.
Bullying is about deliberately using power and status to repeatedly cause distress to, or control another person.

It is not usually a “one off” (although cyberbullying can involve a single post/image, which may be viewed many times or reposted over a long period of time).

It can involve repeated verbal, physical and/or social behaviours (on and offline) intended to cause physical, social and/or psychological harm.

Younger children tend to use more physical forms of bullying. Older children may use more subtle forms of covert and manipulative bullying, which harms social relationships. This can include excluding someone from a group and spreading rumours.

What are the signs a child is being bullied?

Look out for any unexplained changes in your child.

This may include physical injuries, a change in their participation in school or other activities or shifts in friendships. Your child may also be more anxious and nervous, withdrawn or angry.

You know your child best, but directly asking how their friendships are going, may be met with resistance. So if you want to talk about it, a more casual approach may be a better first step. This could include in the car after school/sport or walking together somewhere.

What if your child says they are being bullied?

Children may not want to tell anyone they are being bullied out of fear of things getting worse.

But if and when they do tell, it is often to a parent before friends or the teacher/school.

For parents, hearing your child is being bullied is confronting.
But try to stay calm and resist any urges to trivialise, ridicule, blame, get angry or downplay what is being reported. For example, don’t dismiss it as other kids “just being bitchy/nasty”.

Remember no one chooses to be victimised and it takes courage for a child to report and share what has happened.
Listen for the emotion in their voice to know how to connect with them. Are they scared, nervous and/or angry?

Let your child know it’s not OK for this to happen, and that it is not their fault. This validates your child’s feelings. Let them know you support them and are going to help.

What can you do next?

Talk with your child about what to do next.

They may ask you not to go to the school because they are worried it will make things worse for them. Let them know you are taking responsibility for dealing with this now. This means letting the school know, so you can work together to address it.

Gather evidence demonstrating this may not be an isolated incident: what has happened, when, where and over how long. Keep a record of what your child has shared with you, especially images or posts if the bullying is happening online.

How to work with the school

Research shows it is crucial for parents and schools to work together to address all forms of bullying. This means both parties are taking responsibility and sharing all relevant information to stop the bullying and support the victimised child.

Before you formally notify the school, read the school’s anti-bullying policy, so you know what to expect the school to do.

When you come to report your concerns, clearly and calmly tell your child’s story of being bullied. Provide evidence and a timeline to the teacher in writing.

Ask when you can expect a response about what will be done. Check back in and ask for a progress report.

Schools should outline the steps they will take once it has been reported. This includes how long the investigation will take, when they will get back to you, and what they are putting in place to protect your child.

Keep trying

If you don’t find initial responses timely or transparent, you may choose to escalate the matter to the next level.

This could mean speaking to the school principal or a more senior teacher, or eventually contacting your state’s department of education or school’s government body (for non-government schools).

If you need more information, you and your child can get support from KidsHelpine and Youth Law Australia. The eSafety Commissioner also has specific advice about cyberbullying.

You can also find more tips on the federal government’s Bullying No Way Website and its Student Wellbeing Hub.

Deborah Green has received funding from the Commonwealth government to explore bullying.

Barbara Spears has received funding in the past from the Australian Research Council, the Commonwealth government and South Australian government.

– ref. What can you do if your child is being bullied? – https://theconversation.com/what-can-you-do-if-your-child-is-being-bullied-250799

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jason Nassios, Associate Professor, Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University

Infrastructure Victoria has released a draft 30-year plan outlining how the state can grow sustainably.

It focuses on key areas like transport, housing, energy, and public services to support a growing population and improve liveability. The plan also suggests ways to make the state’s infrastructure and tax system fairer, more efficient and more sustainable.

The plan’s recommendations are expected to cost between A$60 billion and $75 billion, mostly spent before 2035. This is around 10% of Victoria’s yearly economic output in 2023-24, spread over the next decade.

With Victoria already spending record amounts on infrastructure, and budget deficits forecast until 2025-26, finding the money to fund social housing, transport and other projects is a key challenge. We estimate the Infrastructure Victoria proposals would add between $4 billion and $5 billion to Victorian government expenditure each year.

Yet one of its proposals — replacing stamp duty with an annual land tax — would only cost between $1 million and $5 million to implement, but generate substantial gains for Victorian households.

Why replace stamp duty with land tax?

Stamp duty is one of the biggest barriers to moving house in Victoria and other Australian states. This tax, which people pay when they buy property, adds thousands of dollars to the cost of moving.

In 2022-23, Victorians paid about $12 billion to move house. Of this, $3 billion went to actual moving costs (like real estate services, and removalists) and $9 billion was stamp duty.

That’s an effective tax rate of 300% on the true cost of moving, and in 2023 added about $40,000, or 5.3%, to the cost of purchasing the average Victorian home.

High stamp duty discourages people from relocating, even when their needs change — whether that’s moving for a new job, finding a bigger home for a growing family or downsizing after retirement. This leads to longer commutes, traffic congestion and a less efficient housing market. JI: is it worth adding a link for ‘discourages people’?

Switching from stamp duty to an annual land tax would make moving easier and spread the tax burden more fairly.

Instead of a large, one-time tax when buying a home, all landowners would pay a smaller tax each year. This would help fund schools, hospitals, and other infrastructure more sustainably.

What can we learn from Canberra?

Victoria University’s Centre of Policy Studies studied a similar reform in the Australian Capital Territory, where stamp duty has been gradually phased out since 2012 and replaced with higher general rates (a type of land tax).

Each year, the ACT government sets a target for how much money it needs to raise. Landowners then pay a share of that total, based on the value of their land.

One of the biggest benefits of this approach is that it raises money more efficiently. Unlike other taxes, land taxes don’t discourage investment or economic activity.

The study found removing stamp duty had a big positive impact on the ACT’s economy. Around 80% of the economic boost came from removing stamp duty, while introducing land tax also had benefits. By studying transaction data from the ACT, we showed each 10% reduction stamp duty rates drove a 6% rise in property transactions.

Would it help housing affordability?

One of the main arguments for replacing stamp duty with land tax is its effect on housing prices. Economists widely agree land taxes reduce land values, which makes housing more affordable. JI: worth adding a link ‘widely agree’?

However, the impact of removing stamp duty is less predictable. Our previous research found the effect on house prices depends on how often properties are bought and sold. Apartments, for example, tend to change hands more frequently than houses. Because of this, removing stamp duty tends to push up apartment prices more than house prices.

Even so, the overall effect of the reform is a drop in property prices. The challenge is ensuring this price reduction is evenly spread across different types of housing.

A fairer tax system

To make the system fairer, policymakers could adjust how land tax is applied. One option is to introduce a fixed-rate component, as proposed in New South Wales. Another idea, suggested 15 years ago in the Henry Tax Review, is to base the tax on the per-square-metre value of land.

Another key factor is housing supply. If planning laws allow more high-density housing in inner suburbs, price changes could be better managed.

We also need short-term solutions

Replacing stamp duty with land tax is a long-term reform that would take years to fully implement. The ACT, for example, planned a 20-year transition.

If all state governments implemented this reform, we estimate Australian households would ultimately be better off by about $,1600 per household per year.

In the short term, other policies could help improve housing affordability. These include increasing Commonwealth Rent Assistance and rethinking first-home buyer support. These steps could complement broader tax, infrastructure and housing supply reforms.

The Victorian government is seeking feedback on the draft plan before releasing the final version later this year. This is an opportunity for Victorians to contribute ideas on how to shape the state’s future and ensure its infrastructure and tax system work for everyone.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Replacing stamp duty with a land tax could save home buyers big money. Here’s how – https://theconversation.com/replacing-stamp-duty-with-a-land-tax-could-save-home-buyers-big-money-heres-how-251472

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kim M Caudwell, Senior Lecturer in Psychology | Chair, Researchers in Behavioural Addictions, Alcohol and Drugs (BAAD), Charles Darwin University

Do you ever find yourself taking a sneaky few minutes out of your work day to play a game on your phone?

You might try and solve the day’s Wordle – and you wouldn’t be alone. American players rack up a whopping three days a year of game time.

There are hundreds of ways we can distract ourselves from work, and not surprisingly, this can make us feel a bit guilty. Some games have become popular in part due to their low risk of being detected at work.

Managers have long surveilled employees in an effort to reduce distractions, and maximise productivity (as famously satirised in the 1999 cult cinema classic Office Space).

However, meetings, chat and email are now ironically contributing to “digital noise” that undermines productivity and wellbeing.

So, are there any benefits to taking a short break from the grind?

‘Exercising’ your brain

Over the last few decades, there has been a continued interest in whether engaging in brain-stimulating activities – even for short periods – may help “exercise” our brain. There have been claims that activities which engage our attention and memory could prevent cognitive decline in older age.

So, playing something like Wordle might seem a good way to warm our brains up, or help us improve at problem-solving. However, the purported benefits of “brain training” are hotly debated.

Much of this debate relates to what scientists refer to as ecological validity – the extent to which a study’s methods or findings relate to the “real world”. Simple cognitive tasks may have little relevance to the many kinds of cognitive skills we use at work, such as typing an email while in an online meeting.

To improve ecological validity, scientists often strive to create what is termed mundane realism: making the lab feel like the real world, like South Bank University’s “fake pub” in London, used to study drinking culture.

It is difficult to replicate office environments experimentally, and difficult to generalise from one work setting to another.

However, there are some ideas as to how taking breaks that involve games might impact our work and wellbeing in different ways.

Making room for recovery experiences

One way workplace breaks might benefit us is by creating opportunities for recovery experiences: activities that create a sense of detachment or relaxation, and tend to involve a feeling of mastery or control.

Recovery experiences tend to enhance wellbeing and productivity, primarily by reducing exhaustion, or increasing engagement.

Research has shown workplace breaks make people feel more energetic and enthusiastic, and less fatigued. And, video games appear to create recovery experiences.

Facilitating teamwork and enhancing culture

Another way to think about workplace breaks involving games is their potential to create team-building opportunities.

In a way, Wordle sparked a modern workplace watercooler conversation. These have long been thought to improve culture and collaboration.

Wordle workplace discussions have involved colleagues competing for the quickest solves, sharing hints and swapping strategies.

Games which require players to reach a solution may work well in generating conversation, or by simply incorporating fun in an otherwise humdrum work day.

Research has also shown that playing games with colleagues positively impacts team cohesion and performance, even on a subsequent task. This suggests playing games like Wordle with peers or team members might improve communication skills, and give people valuable experience in working together to solve problems.

This is especially relevant to modern workplaces where employees may not be working in the same location, or could be working on different components of an overarching project.

The de-intensification of work

Given the culture of busyness associated with modern work, we need to ensure employees can make the best use of breaks, including those used for games, to realise any productivity or wellbeing gains.

For example, one study showed that when employees were overstretched, those who engaged in breaks involving cognitive activities tended to feel worse at the end of the workday. So it is important to consider whether taking a break might be restorative, or counterproductive.

We also need to be realistic about our propensity to underestimate how long we are spending taking a break. Spending too much time on non-work related tasks might raise suspicions from colleagues and managers alike – and could create challenging workplace scenarios.

Although, we also need to keep in mind that many work breaks are nevertheless interrupted or cut short by work – which is not good for us either.

Approaches such as the Pomodoro Technique can help us manage work and breaks effectively. Organisations adopting a four-day working week are considering how the technique might get the best out of their employees.

So, taking a few minutes to crack the day’s Wordle as a means to engage in some friendly competition – or as a simple solo endeavour – might be exactly the kind of break we need to optimise work productivity, without undermining our health and wellbeing.

Nothing to disclose

Kim M Caudwell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Can playing games like Wordle help improve work and workplaces? – https://theconversation.com/can-playing-games-like-wordle-help-improve-work-and-workplaces-247689

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Freddie Daley, Research Associate, Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex

Towns and cities are pushing ahead with ambitious climate policies, even as global collaboration on climate breakdown splinters. One flagship example is the proliferation of bans on advertising for highly polluting companies and products such as fossil fuels, airlines, luxury travel and SUVs.

In the UK, the cities of Edinburgh and Sheffield have introduced such bans, with billboard ads for fossil fuel companies like Shell and BP, as well as airlines, airports, SUVs, and petrol- or diesel-powered vehicles disappearing from council-owned sites as the policies take hold.

Edinburgh’s city councillors acknowledged that achieving the city’s climate goals required “a shift in society’s perception of success” and that “the promotion of high-carbon products is incompatible with net zero objectives”. Councillors in Sheffield stated that the city’s advertising ban “tackles some of the impacts of consumerism, advertising and injustice”.

Further afield, the Dutch city of The Hague and the Swedish capital of Stockholm have introduced bans, alongside transport networks in Göthenburg, Montreal and Toronto. Many more towns and cities around the world have tabled motions that could blossom into fully functional bans.

Calls for restrictions of advertising on climate grounds have echoed from the top of the United Nations, to the UK’s House of Lords and its public health professionals. Celebrity environmentalists like Chris Packham have also endorsed a ban.

Today’s tobacco

Not long ago, it was common to see adverts compelling us to smoke tobacco products. But thanks to effective campaigning, these ads were removed from billboards, football jerseys, television screens and, eventually, everyday life. Tobacco is the most well known historical precedent, but there have been local bans on alcohol advertising, like one proposed in Scotland, and on junk food, like the one on public transport in London – one of the largest collections of physical and digital advertising spaces on earth.

The logic behind advertising bans is straightforward. By prohibiting the advertisement of certain goods and services, you will reduce the consumption of them and, by extension, the harms associated with their consumption, be it emissions, pollution or disease.

After Transport for London introduced its junk food ban in 2019, there was a significant decrease in Londoners eating foods high in fat, salt and sugar. Within the average London household, there was a reduction of over 1,000 calories, a drop of around 7%. Further analysis suggested that the ad ban might be able to prevent nearly 100,000 cases of obesity, which could save the NHS around £200 million. Similar reductions in consumption have been observed in the wake of tobacco advertising bans.

Advertising is driving the climate crisis

The direct causal link between advertisement and consumption is gaining recognition. Studies have shown that high-carbon advertising increases the demand for these goods and, as a result, drives emissions growth. One 2022 study found that airlines with the biggest advertising budgets had higher ticket sales, suggesting a direct link between ad spend and demand for flights. Another study found that advertising as a whole is responsible for adding 32% to the carbon emissions of every single person in the UK.

Alongside the direct impact of advertising on emissions, high-carbon advertising normalises emissions-intensive forms of consumption, such as frequent air travel. The adverts in question often contain misleading environmental claims, sometimes making people think the climate crisis is less severe or that there is nothing they can do about it.

This is perhaps the more symbolic, but no less pernicious, effect of high-carbon advertising. There is a consensus that phasing out fossil fuels rapidly is essential to stabilising global temperatures and preventing catastrophic impacts, yet these companies spend tens of billions worldwide on advertisements that claim they are “part of the solution”. More often than not, this is a one-way conversation: citizens do not have a right of reply when it comes to giant advertising billboards.

Cities see sense

More than 1,000 cities worldwide have net zero targets, and over 130 cities have joined the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty. By banning these ads, ambitions and policies can be aligned.

Reducing the demand for emissions-intensive goods and services is an increasingly vital facet of government mitigation strategies. Indeed, the IPCC estimates that demand-side strategies could cut global emissions by between 40% and 70% by 2050. The UK government’s official advisory Climate Change Committee (CCC) has recognised that advertising both stimulates demand and shapes norms and aspirations.

With the growth in emissions from SUVs cancelling out progress on decarbonising transport more broadly, it may only be a matter of time before the CCC and other government advisers recommend tighter restrictions on high-carbon advertising.

Ever worsening climate change highlights a tension for the advertising policies of cities and towns. Should they promote the very companies that are undermining public safety, the insurability of their cities, and destroying public spaces through floods, fires and extreme weather events? Some cities have already answered this question with an emphatic “no”.

These bans are more than political gestures – they are a crucial step in reducing demand for emissions-intensive goods and aligning public policy with climate science. As climate disasters intensify and the financial burden on cities grows, the question is no longer whether high-carbon advertising should be restricted, but how quickly these policies can be expanded to match the scale of the crisis.

Freddie Daley campaigns on demand reduction for Badvertising.

– ref. Many cities are banning ads for airlines, SUVs and fossil fuels – and yours could be next – https://theconversation.com/many-cities-are-banning-ads-for-airlines-suvs-and-fossil-fuels-and-yours-could-be-next-251322

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Donald Trump has attacked Malcolm Turnbull as “a weak and ineffective leader” after the former prime minister claimed the US president’s style of behaviour was likely to benefit China and said Australia needed to pursue a policy more independent of the United States.

Trump lambasted Turnbull in a social media post, saying, “Malcolm Turnbull, the former prime minister of Australia who was always leading that wonderful country from ‘behind’, never understood what was going on in China, nor did he have the capacity to do so.

“I always thought he was a weak and ineffective leader and, obviously, Australian’s [sic] agreed with me.”

Turnbull, in an interview with Bloomberg, had said the world was now seeing a “much more undiluted Donald Trump the second time around”, and predicted China would take advantage of the president’s behaviour.

China’s President Xi Jinping “will aim to be the exact opposite of Trump. Where Trump is chaotic, he will be consistent. Where Trump is rude and abusive, he will be respectful. Where Trump is erratic, he will be consistent,” Turnbull said.
That would build trust with countries and many would look at “China on the one hand, and Trump on the other and find China a more attractive partner”.

The Trump-Turnbull spat comes as the Albanese government this week awaits the president’s decision on its plea for Australia to be exempted from Trump’s tariffs on aluminium and steel.

The government remains pessimistic, as last-minute lobbying by Australia continues.

Trade Minister Don Farrell said on Monday “Australia and the United States are trusted partners and we are using every opportunity to make known to our friends in America the immense benefits of our partnership”.

Turnbull, whose government secured an exemption from tariffs on these products from the first Trump administration, said he thought it would be “a lot harder” to get one this time.

“Trump will be being told, and I suspect he’ll conclude himself, that you give one country an exemption, then you have to give another and another. And before long there are too many exemptions and you haven’t got much of a tariff. So I suspect it will be on everybody.”

Turnbull said that in his second term Trump was “more determined”. He had a team that was “totally on board” – he was surrounded by “yes men”.

If Trump’s policies triggered a wave of protectionism around the world “that’s clearly going to be bad for business everywhere,” he said.

Turnbull said it appeared the closer countries were to the US the more Trump “feels he can extract value from you, stand over you, extort you.

“Look at the business with Greenland. Is this Denmark’s reward for supporting the Americans in Afghanistan? To have their prime minister rung up and told that her country has to cede one of its territories?

“Is this Canada’s reward for decades of solidarity and alliance, that they should be told they’re just the 51st state and be threatened with tariffs that are going to send the country into a recession?”

(Former banker Mark Carney, who has just won his party’s vote to become Canada’s new prime minister, following Justin Trudeau’s decision to step down, made his claim to be the best person to deal with the trade battle with the Trump administration a central argument in his bid for the leadership.)

Turnbull said Trump did not subscribe to the same values Australia had in the past shared with America – he was not committed to the international rule of law and did not care about treaties and alliances. So Australia would have to work out “how we are going to defend ourselves and how we will pursue a more independent – independent of the United States – approach to international and security affairs”.

The former PM is organising a March 31 conference in Canberra to discuss the alliance and AUKUS in the age of Trump.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Donald Trump calls Malcolm Turnbull ‘weak and ineffective’ in spat with former prime minister – https://theconversation.com/donald-trump-calls-malcolm-turnbull-weak-and-ineffective-in-spat-with-former-prime-minister-251625

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cheryl Desha, Visiting Professor, School of Engineering and Built Environment, Sciences Group, Griffith University

Thousands of residents are mopping up in the wake of ex-Cyclone Alfred, which has damaged homes and cars, flooded roads and gouged out beaches.

I write from Brisbane, where rain has fallen for several days. Most of it is draining to a coastline already swollen and eroded by Alfred’s swell.

Flood warnings are current in southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales. Many communities are in danger – some of which have faced multiple floods in recent years.

Despite all this, the damage could have been so much worse – and we may not be so lucky next time. Australia must use Cyclone Alfred as a serious wake-up call to bolster our essential infrastructure against disasters.

A complex picture

Cyclones are incredibly complex. They involve multiple interacting hazards such as severe wind, flooding, storm surge and erosion. This makes their impacts hard to predict.

Alfred meandered slowly off the coast for almost a fortnight, fed by warm waters in the Coral Sea. Its movements were made even more complicated by a new moon, which creates extra-high high tides.

Despite these intricacies, experts were able to map the path and character of the cyclone. This was due to collaboration between multiple agencies and personnel across national, state and local governments.

This information was quickly transmitted to the public via local government emergency dashboards, apps and emergency radio broadcasts, as well as traditional media. The warnings meant communities knew what was coming and could prepare accordingly.

However, Alfred’s force exposed major weaknesses in vital infrastructure.

Electricity outages reached record levels, peaking at more than 300,000 across both states. Queensland Premier David Crisafulli described the outages as that state’s “largest ever loss of power” from a natural hazard.

On the Gold Coast, residents of newly built luxury apartments reported rain penetrating past windows and into homes many storeys above the ground.

Falling trees crushed homes and cars, and in at least one case sparked an electrical fire.

In Queensland and NSW, Alfred flooded and damaged roads, causing scores of road closures and traffic signal outages.

Drawing lessons from nature

As climate change worsens, extreme weather will become more frequent and severe. We must minimise the risks of infrastructure failing during these events. It will require a broad range of measures extending beyond those adopted in the past.

Nature is incredibly resilient. It can offer many lessons to decision-makers, engineers, town planners and others. This approach is known as “biomimicry” – innovation that emulates the forms, processes or systems found in nature.

Connected vegetation such as a line of mature trees, wetlands and mangroves can detain and slow water. This means water passing through has less energy to erode land and topple infrastructure. It also allows for water to soak into the ground, which cleans it and filters out debris.

In flood management, holding ponds known as “detention basins” are used to temporarily store stormwater run-off during heavy rain. City parks can be reshaped or upgraded to become detention basins, holding water until it can safely drain away.

Urban infrastructure could also mimic the swales and earthen mounds found in nature, by incorporating human-made channels and mounds. These would guide water away from communities and infrastructure, to storage above or underground.

And what about our coastlines? Cyclones stir up huge swells which crash on shores and gouge out beaches. Alfred has left extreme sand erosion up and down the coast.

Coastlines are inherently mobile; sand naturally leaves and returns, depending on the weather. To protect our permanent coastal development, sand dune restoration could provide a line of defence in front of built infrastructure. This option has been implemented in the Netherlands, where it was found to be cost-effective.

In Australia, an estimated 17% of mangroves have been destroyed since European settlement. Mangroves naturally buffer the land from wind and storm surge. Reinstating mangroves could help protect coastal communities from future wind damage, as a 2020 study in Fiji showed.

Globally, there is a growing movement towards creating “sponge cities”. These are urban areas rich in natural features such as trees, lakes and parks, which can absorb rain (and sometimes wind) and prevent flooding.

Australia is cottoning on to how nature can help protect our cities. But there is much more work to do.

Experts from James Cook University have been deployed to southeast Queensland to capture immediate data after ex-Cyclone Alfred. They are documenting the effects of extreme wind and other hazards on buildings and infrastructure, and collecting data on wind speeds, water ingress and damage caused by debris.

Hopefully, the findings will inform decision-making on construction, building codes and disaster-resilience strategies for communities.

Building back better

Climate change is expected to cause fewer, but generally more severe, tropical cyclones. Combined with other climate-related changes, such as more intense rainfall and higher sea levels, the risk of flooding associated with cyclones will worsen.

Significant money is already being spent on disaster prevention and preparedness. However, more is needed.

Australians should not need another reminder to proactively reduce the damage caused by extreme weather events. But Alfred has certainly provided one.

As the clean up begins, let’s embrace the opportunity to build back better.

Cheryl Desha works for Natural Hazards Research Australia, which receives government and participant funding. Natural Hazards Research Australia’s funded research includes tropical cyclones and floods, spanning the physical impacts of cyclones, analysis of fatalities after natural hazards, how people are affected by extreme disasters and the benefits of mitigation. She is affiliated with Engineers Australia, and the International Society of Digital Earth.

– ref. ‘A serious wake-up call’: Cyclone Alfred exposes weaknesses in Australia’s vital infrastructure – https://theconversation.com/a-serious-wake-up-call-cyclone-alfred-exposes-weaknesses-in-australias-vital-infrastructure-251814

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matt Qvortrup, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for European Studies, Australian National University

“We don’t want to be Danes or Americans”, Greenland Prime Minister Múte Egede told Fox News recently. He wants his country to be independent and plans to hold a referendum.

But this is no longer the main issue for Greenlanders as the world’s largest island votes in a general election on March 11.

US President Donald Trump has declared it is absolutely necessary for America to take over Greenland – and he will not be deterred. He even refused to rule out using military or economic force.

The Danish territory is now the subject of international controversy. And that has altered the trajectory of the election.

Greenland’s territory status

The name Greenland was invented by Viking Erik den Röde, who encountered the territory around 990 and wanted to lure his compatriots to the island.

Since the 1950s, America has operated an airbase in Thule in the north of the island.

However, at present, the territory – roughly the size of Mexico but with a population of just 56,000 people – is part of Denmark. The Vikings never left.

Greenland today

In the early 1950s, Greenland became a county of Denmark, and in 1979, it was given its own devolved parliament – with powers to make laws.

Its single-chamber parliament in Nuuk – the territory’s capital – is called the Inatsisartut in Greenlandic, which means “those who make the laws”. Apart from defence and foreign affairs, all of these are made by the Greenlanders.

Independence from Denmark only became an issue in the early 2000s, but it was not seriously debated before 2008 when Denmark agreed to Greenland’s future status.

Part of the deal was that the money Denmark sends Greenland every year (known as a “block grant”) will be reduced as mineral mining starts paying for public services. The agreement was passed in a referendum in 2008, which also gives Greenland the right to secede at a time of its choosing.

The incumbent Egede is the leader of the left-wing Inuit Ataqatigiit party, which wants independence from Denmark. So does the centrist party Naleraq.

The two parties have have a combined 16 of the 31 seats in the parliament. However, some members of other parties – including the previously unionist Siumut (which is currently part of the government) – have signalled a gradual shift. So, the actual number of members that would vote for independence is likely to be slightly higher.

Independence is opposed by the conservative Demokraatit party, the centre-left Siumut party and the centre-right Atasut party. The Demokraatit party has become more popular than the Siumut and Atasut parties. The latter two used to dominate Greenlandic politics but have struggled in the past few years.

Will there be a referendum?

The current government is a centre-left coalition of Egede’s Inuit Ataqatigiit and Siumut. The two parties agreed to disagree on the issue of independence, but that could change after the election. And, even the Siumut parliamentary leader Doris J. Jensen has expressed guarded support for breaking free from Copenhagen.

Although Naleraq and Inuit Ataqatigiit are ideologically apart, it seems likely they will call for a referendum after the election (should they win a majority).

A territory unilaterally calling a referendum on independence would usually be unconstitutional in most countries. The Spanish government called a 2017 independence referendum in Catalonia unconstitutional and responded with a police crackdown.

But Greenland is different. In 2009, the Danish parliament passed a law allowing the Greenlanders to hold a vote on independence at the time of their choosing.

Greenland has an abundance of critical minerals, including copper, tungsten and even platinum – albeit mostly buried under the ice.

It is likely access to these minerals is what is driving Trump’s interest in Kalaallit Nunaat (“the land of the people”), as Greenland’s Inuit people call their country.

Until recently, this was not the main issue on most voters’ agendas. Many in Greenland are more concerned with bread and butter issues such as welfare and the cost of living than with underground resources. But Trump’s interest in the island has changed the debate.

The election as it stands

The current government parties have lost ground. Inuit Ataqatigiit’s projected vote share is down from 37% to 31%, and Siumut’s will – according to polls – be reduced from 29% to 21%.

The main beneficiaries of the unpopularity of the present government are Demokraatit and Naleraq. The former stands to double its vote share to 18%, 2% ahead of the latter.

The overall percentage of parties that support independence has not changed.

Whatever the result of the election, neither side wants to become Americans.

The parties may not agree on whether they want to continue their 1,000-year union with Denmark, but they agree with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s message to Donald Trump: “Greenland is not for sale”.

Anders Vistisen, a Danish member of the European parliament for the Nationalist Dansk Folkeparti, put it even more succinctly. He told the assembly recently:

Let me put it into words you might understand. Mr Trump, fuck off.

None of the parties have expressed sympathy for being part of the US, but all are happy to discuss future collaboration on defence. All of them, in different ways, are open to exploring the possibility of minerals exploration but sympathy in Greenland for Trump’s position is non-existent.

Matt Qvortrup does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Greenland votes on March 11. Independence was the key issue, but Trump has changed the campaign – https://theconversation.com/greenland-votes-on-march-11-independence-was-the-key-issue-but-trump-has-changed-the-campaign-250042

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tom Shand, Honorary Senior Lecturer, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

Late last year, a massive ocean swell caused by a low pressure system in the North Pacific generated waves up to 20 metres high, and damaged coastlines and property thousands of kilometres from its source.

Two years earlier, another storm system southeast of New Zealand also whipped up massive waves, with the swell reaching as far as Canada, battering Pacific island coasts along the way.

These storms, and the swells they create, are facts of nature. But while we understand a lot about the extraordinary forces at work, we can still do more to predict their impact and coordinate global warning systems.

How big waves are born

Waves are made by wind blowing over a water surface. The longer and stronger the wind blows, the more energy is transferred into those waves.

As well as an increase in wave height, sustained high wind speeds generate waves with a longer period – that is, the distance or time between successive wave crests. Oceanographers refer to the mix of wave heights and periods (and to some extent directions) as a “sea” state.

Once the wind stops blowing, or the sea moves away from the wind that is generating it, the waves become swell and start to separate. The longest-period waves move fastest and shorter-period waves more slowly.

Most waves resulting from a storm have periods of 12–16 seconds, with the individual waves travelling at speeds of 60–80km per hour.

But very large storms with high, sustained winds can generate waves with periods of more than 20 seconds. These waves travel much faster, over 100km per hour in the open ocean, and their energy (which travels more slowly than individual waves) can cover 1,500km in 24 hours.

Ocean waves, particularly long-period swells, lose very little energy as they travel. And unless they collide with an island and break, they are capable of travelling great distances.

By comparison, shorter period waves take much longer to travel and lose more energy. If they encounter a wind field moving in another direction, this also removes energy and reduces their height.

But sometimes, a particularly strong storm system can generate long-period waves with enough energy to travel across the Pacific, reaching shores thousands of kilometres away.

A unique characteristic of such long-range swells is that individual waves contain a lot more energy than shorter-period local waves. They grow to greater heights as they “shoal” in shallow water, and can hit shorelines and structures with greater force, causing more damage and danger.

The ‘Code Red 2’ swell

The “Code Red 2” swell was a good example of this in action. It was generated by a massive storm system southeast of New Zealand in July 2022. The “significant wave height”, or average of the largest third of the system’s waves, reached 13 metres. Individual waves were up to twice this height.

The storm system was unusual due to very strong southerly winds blowing northweard from near Antarctica for over 2,000km. This resulted in long-period (20 second) swells moving north into the Pacific Ocean.

The swell first reached Tahiti, where waves closed most of the south-facing coast, prompting a Code Red warning. This was only the second such warning since 2011 (hence its name), and resulted in massive waves at the Teahupo’o surf break, location of the 2024 Olympic surfing event.

The swell also caused flooding along the south coast of Rarotonga and other Pacific Islands before continuing north across the equator to reach the south coast of Hawaii – 7,000km from where it was generated.

Due to their direction and very long period, large waves reached places they don’t usually affect, literally crashing weddings and breaking over houses. The swell then carried on to hit the Californian coast some 10,000km away, and eventually reaching Canada more than a week after it was initially generated.

The ‘Eddie’ swell

More recently, the 2024 “Eddie” swell was generated from an extremely intense low pressure system in the North Pacific in December 2024. Waves near the centre of the storm reached heights of 20 metres, with a 22-second period.

The resulting swell hit Hawaii first, where waves were large enough to run the Eddie Aikau Big Wave Invitational at Waimea Bay, a surfing event that requires such large waves it has only been run 11 times in its 40-year history (and which gave the swell its name).

This extreme swell then reached California 3,000km away, where it also generated giant surf, damaged boats in coastal marinas and caused part of the Santa Cruz wharf to collapse.

Due to its very long period, the swell was able to continue southward, still with a lot of energy. It reached the north coast of Ecuador and Peru, 8,500km from where it began, where it destroyed fishing boats. And it finally hit Chile, 11,000km from its source, where it closed ports and inundated coastal promenades.

These coasts typically receive large southwest swells. But this rare, long-period north swell was able to reach normally protected north-facing sections of coast, causing uncharacteristic damage.

Predicting local impacts

It can be difficult to sound warnings for these types of long-period waves, as they are generated so far from the affected shorelines they are missed by local forecasters and emergency managers.

Global wave models such as those driven by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction are capable of predicting and tracking these swells but require a more nuanced approach to predicting local impacts.

New early warning systems are being developed that take global wave forecasts and downscale them to take into account the shape of the local coastline. The wave information is then combined with predictions of tide and storm surge to give warnings of when coastal impacts may occur.

These systems will give emergency managers, ports and coastal infrastructure operators – and the public – better information and more time to prepare for these damaging wave events.

Tom Shand is affiliated with the Engineering Consultancy Tonkin + Taylor and with the industry association PIANC (World Association for Waterborne Transport Infrastructure).

– ref. How ocean giants are born: tracking the long-distance impact and danger of extreme swells – https://theconversation.com/how-ocean-giants-are-born-tracking-the-long-distance-impact-and-danger-of-extreme-swells-247182

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A national Newspoll, conducted March 3–7 from a sample of 1,255, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, unchanged since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (up one), 32% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (steady) and 10% for all Others (down two).

Newspoll is using a stronger One Nation preference flow to the Coalition than occurred at the 2022 election. By 2022 preference flows, this poll would be near a 50–50 tie.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval jumped nine points to -12, with 53% dissatisfied and 41% satisfied. Peter Dutton’s net approval dropped four points to -14. Albanese extended his better PM lead over Dutton to 47–38 (45–40 previously).

This is the first time Albanese has had a better net approval than Dutton since September 2024, and also his biggest better PM lead since then. It’s not always the case, but sometimes movements in leaders’ ratings come before a gain in voting intentions.

In the other polls released in the last week, Labor gained a 51–49 lead in a YouGov poll, but the Coalition regained a narrow lead in both the Essential and Morgan polls.

The graph below shows Labor’s two-party vote in national polls. While still narrowly behind, Labor is doing better than they were two weeks ago.

This is the graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll this term. The plus signs are the data points and a trend line has been fitted. The trend line will need a sustained improvement for Albanese before it turns up.

In an additional Newspoll question, by 55–45 respondents said they were not confident that the Dutton Coalition is ready to govern Australia.

Labor gains lead in a YouGov poll

A national YouGov poll, conducted February 28 to March 6 from a sample of 1,504, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the February 21–27 YouGov poll. This is the first Labor lead in YouGov since July 2024. YouGov will be releasing weekly voting intentions until the election.

Primary votes were 36% Coalition (down one), 31% Labor (up three), 13% Greens (down one), 7% One Nation (down one), 1% for Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots (steady) 10% independents (steady) and 2% others (steady). YouGov is using preference flows that are weaker for Labor than at the 2022 election, and by 2022 election flows Labor would lead by more than 52–48.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved three points to -9, with 51% dissatisfied and 42% satisfied. Dutton’s net approval slid two points to -4. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 45–39 (42–40 previously).

Essential poll: Coalition takes narrow lead

A national Essential poll, conducted February 26 to March 2 from a sample of 1,150, gave the Coalition a 48–47 lead including undecided using respondent preferences (a 48–48 tie in mid-February). The Coalition has been narrowly ahead since early December except for the previous poll.

Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 29% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (up one), 8% One Nation (down one), 1% UAP (steady), 10% for all Others (up one) and 5% undecided (up one). By 2022 election preference flows, Labor would lead by about an unchanged 51–49. Essential should have replaced UAP with Clive Palmer’s new Trumpet of Patriots party.

Albanese’s net approval was down three points to -8, with 49% disapproving and 41% approving. Dutton’s net approval was up one to -3. By 49–34, voters thought Australia was on the wrong track (51–31 previously).

Essential’s party trusted to handle issues were better for Labor than other issue polls by Resolve and Freshwater. Labor led the Coalition by 33–27 on addressing cost of living pressures and only trailed by 30–29 on managing the economy.

Overall, 52% said they were committed to their vote, including 65% of Coalition supporters and 52% of Labor supporters.

Morgan poll: Coalition retakes narrow lead

A national Morgan poll, conducted February 24 to March 2 from a sample of 1,673, gave the Coalition a 50.5–49.5 lead, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since the February 17–23 Morgan poll that was probably a pro-Labor outlier.

Primary votes were 40% Coalition (up 3.5), 28.5% Labor (down three), 13.5% Greens (steady), 4% One Nation (down one), 10.5% independents (up 0.5) and 3.5% others (steady). By 2022 election flows, there was a 50–50 tie, a three-point gain for the Coalition.

By 52–31.5, respondents thought the country is going in the wrong direction (49.5–34.5 previously). Morgan’s consumer confidence index fell 2.1 points to 87.7.

Economy has best quarterly growth for two years

The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the December quarter GDP report last Wednesday. The economy grew 0.6% in December, up from 0.3% in the September quarter. This was the best growth since December 2022, when the economy grew 0.7%.

There was much media attention on the 0.8% annual growth rate after the September quarter GDP was released in December. The annual growth for the year to December was 1.3%, after the weak December 2023 quarter (0.1% growth) was replaced with this stronger quarter.

GDP per capita rose 0.1% in the December quarter, after dropping in the seven quarters from March 2023 to September 2024.

Carney wins Canadian Liberal leadership

Mark Carney has been elected Canadian federal Liberal leader today and will replace Justin Trudeau as prime minister. I covered this for The Poll Bludger. The Liberals have surged back from way behind the Conservatives in the Canadian polls.

I also wrote about US, Austrian and German electoral developments.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Labor gains in some opinion polls, but the race remains neck-and-neck – https://theconversation.com/labor-gains-in-some-opinion-polls-but-the-race-remains-neck-and-neck-251352

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shaun Eaves, Senior Lecturer in Physical Geography, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

New Zealand ranks third globally in the proportion of ice lost from glaciers. Almost 30% of ice volume has melted during the past 24 years and what remains is disappearing at an accelerating pace, according to a recent global assessment.

Almost 300 glaciers have now vanished completely from New Zealand’s mountains.

As warming temperatures melt glaciers, the ice loss has repercussions for climate and water cycles. This in turn has significant impacts on landscapes, rivers, ecosystems and, ultimately, people and economies.

New Zealand is tracking glacial ice loss closely, thanks to a long-running monitoring programme going back to 1977.

Each year, a team of scientists carries out aerial surveys of the end-of-summer snowline to determine how much of the previous winter snowpack has survived the summer melt season.

Winter snow supplies new mass to glaciers and must balance summer melt if glaciers are to maintain their size. Recent surveys have shown that summer melt far exceeds winter inputs.

During extremely warm years, the winter snow pack is almost entirely removed from some glaciers and the underlying ice has thinned by several metres.

Like a bank account where expenses continually exceed income, the glaciers are out of balance. If left unchecked, eventually the bank account runs dry.

What we lose when glaciers melt

New Zealand is home to just under 3,000 glaciers, covering about 794 square kilometres – equivalent to about 75% of Auckland’s urban area.

Many of these ice bodies are small. Most of the ice is contained in just a few larger glaciers situated close to Aoraki Mt Cook.

We don’t have accurate measurements of glacier thickness but estimate they hold as much water as Lake Te Anau. If all of the ice in New Zealand melted – a possibility under some climate scenarios for the coming centuries – the impact on global sea levels would be barely perceptible, but we would be affected in many other ways.

Physically, snow and ice have a cooling effect on their surrounding environment. The highly reflective surface of snow and ice means a high proportion of solar radiation (up to 90% on fresh snow) is reflected back to space.

A reduction in seasonal snow cover and glacial ice due to warming increases the absorption of solar radiation. This further warms the surface and adjacent air and sets off a feedback loop that accelerates further ice loss.

The same effect applies to the loss of sea ice in both the Arctic and Antarctica and is a key reason why alpine and polar regions warm faster than other parts of the globe.

Loss of glacial ice also destabilises the surrounding landscape, with potentially hazardous impacts. Glacial retreat is causing weakening and collapse of steep valley sides that were once supported by ice. The lowering and flattening of ice surfaces means rain and meltwater form ponds that can drain without notice.

Biologically, seasonal snow plays an important role in maintaining ecological diversity. Snow insulates and protects alpine insects during winter and regulates flowering times and seed production of alpine flora.

Glacial meltwater cools stream water, supporting cold-water fish populations. Furthermore, the fine silt produced by the slow grinding of rock under the weight of flowing glacial ice is redistributed by wind and rivers and can maintain productive arable land and help regulate atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.

Snow and ice are also culturally and economically important in New Zealand. Winter snow draws skiers and alpinists to the mountains, while the glaciers of the central Southern Alps are internationally recognised icons that provide the economic backbone to entire regional communities.

The science of glacier loss is clear: in a warming world, less snow will be retained and more ice will melt. This is why the United Nations has designated 2025 the International Year of Glaciers’ Preservation and March 21 as the World Day for Glaciers.

The only way to sustainably arrest the current global retreat of glacial ice is to tackle the root cause: global heating. Achieving this requires international coordination to move energy generation away from fossil fuels quickly.

Failing this, we may soon only remember our glaciers from stories, paintings and photographs.

Shaun Eaves receives funding from the Antarctic Science Platform and previously from the Marsden Fund.

Andrew Lorrey receives funding from NIWA’s Strategic Science Investment Fund for the project CAOA2501 Alpine Climate.

Brian Anderson receives funding from the Marsden Fund and NIWA.

Heather Purdie receives funding from NIWA and the Antarctic Science Platform, and previously from the Marsden Fund. She previously worked as a glacier guide for Fox Glacier Guiding.

Lauren Vargo receives funding from the Marsden Fund.

– ref. NZ’s glaciers have already lost nearly a third of their ice – as more vanishes, landscapes and lives change – https://theconversation.com/nzs-glaciers-have-already-lost-nearly-a-third-of-their-ice-as-more-vanishes-landscapes-and-lives-change-250617

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samantha Carlson, Senior Research Officer, Infectious Diseases Epidemiology Team, The Kids Research Institute Australia

It’s now been five years since the World Health Organization declared COVID a pandemic.

In Australia, as in many other countries around this time, federal and state governments implemented a range of public health measures to slow the spread of disease. These included travel bans, quarantine and limits on social gatherings.

Western Australia was largely untouched by COVID during the early years of the pandemic due to strict border closures and snap lockdowns. Many WA residents said they were thankful for such measures as life seemed almost normal.

However, our recent research shows this was not the case for many Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people living in WA. The COVID pandemic hampered their ability to connect with their community and practise traditional culture.

A close collaboration

Between 2020 and 2024, we consulted with members of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander community in Noongar Whadjuk Boodja (Perth metropolitan region, WA).

We held meetings with various committees and organisations to design the project, five yarning workshops with 38 participants, and a forum to interpret the data and support the publication of our findings.

We wanted to understand the impact of the COVID pandemic on this community, and their perceptions of COVID vaccination.

We collaborated closely because historically, Indigenous peoples across the globe have been disproportionately impacted by pandemics. What’s more, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander voices were omitted from previous pandemic responses, such as during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic.

Negative effects on community and culture

Our results indicate the policies and programs implemented to slow the spread of disease (such as travel bans and capacity limits at funerals) ultimately had a negative impact among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.

These interventions impaired people’s ability to connect with community and practise traditional culture. As described by a yarning participant in March 2023:

Isolating, that caused a lot of damage towards communication between community. That caused a lot of mental health issues. And not just through domestic violence and all that stuff. It’s more like not understanding, confusion, and then all those other stuff came into it. Now we’re all trying to fix ourselves and the community, but it’s like hitting brick walls.

Most participants were very wary of government and medical institutions (including Aboriginal-led services that shared government messages). Participants told us this made it hard to trust any COVID policies and programs:

The government just expects Aboriginal people […] to believe them and trust them when there are so many issues to this day with the government and how Aboriginal people are treated.

Any government efforts to build trust were undermined once the WA government introduced COVID vaccine mandates for most workers in WA. This policy had unique impacts on peoples living in the shadow of colonisation. It deeply affected those who identified a lack of agency in their lives, as described to us in a yarn in October 2023:

I was really frustrated that it became compulsory to be vaccinated in order to keep your job […] I feel like the only thing we really do choose is where we work and what work we choose to go into, and then for the government to take control of that, what voice do we have?

Read more:
Friday essay: voices from the bush – how lockdown affects remote Indigenous communities differently

Attitudes towards COVID vaccines

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people were among the first to be offered COVID vaccines. Despite this, after 12 months of the vaccination program, there was a 30% gap in uptake between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and non-Indigenous people in WA. It’s important to understand why.

Some participants we spoke to had taken the vaccines voluntarily and enthusiastically. They trusted that the vaccine would protect them and their loved ones, and wanted to be role models in their communities.

However, many held deep concerns about the safety of the vaccine, and were only vaccinated due to the mandates.

This vaccine hesitancy among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people is not uniform across all vaccines. Our preliminary research with parents and carers from the same community shows high acceptance of childhood vaccines and the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) immunisation for infants. So this hesitancy appears to be specific to certain vaccines, notably COVID.

As described to us in a yarn about RSV infant immunisation, childhood vaccines and diseases such as RSV are well known, whereas everything about COVID was new.

What now?

Over the course of the pandemic, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people have been more likely to get very sick with and die from COVID. Data released in 2023 showed the mortality rate from COVID was 1.6 times higher in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people than non-Indigenous Australians.

Such disparities, which we’ve seen in previous pandemics too, cannot continue into the next pandemic.

Genuine collaboration is essential. We must ensure Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander voices lead pandemic preparedness and response efforts for their communities.

We can learn from the incredible efforts made by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, and Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisations during COVID.

Some of the people we yarned with in our research were involved in the response, including setting up vaccine clinics where Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people had the opportunity to also yarn, create art (weaving and painting), learn, and enjoy a meal while at the clinic for the vaccine.

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities need disease prevention policies that support community and culture. Stronger efforts are required now to start building up the trust between the government, non-Indigenous health authorities, and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.

These efforts include collaborating with and equipping community leaders and Aboriginal health workers with evidence-based information about vaccination and disease prevention to share among their communities.

Global pandemics are becoming more frequent. This network must be ready when (not if) the next pandemic happens.

At our data interpretation workshop, we were encouraged by the local Elder who welcomed us to their Country to have “courageous conversations” about this topic. We similarly encourage all those working in this space to start now.

Samantha Carlson is a recipient of the WA Early-Career Child Health Researcher Fellowship Program, funded by the BrightSpark Foundation and Western Australia Future Health Research and Innovation Fund (FHRI). Dr Carlson receives or has received funds for her research from the FHRI, New South Wales Ministry of Health, Stan Perron Charitable Foundation Health Research Funding, Western Australia Country Health Services and Western Australian Department of Health.

Christopher Blyth receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council. He is on the board of the Australasian Society for Infectious Diseases. He has previously been a member of the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation.

Katie Attwell is a past recipient of a Discovery Early Career Researcher Award funded by the Australian Research Council of the Australian Government. She led the “Coronavax” project, funded by the Government of Western Australia. She leads “MandEval: Effectiveness and Consequences of Australia’s COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates” funded by the Medical Research Future Fund of the Australian Government. All funds were paid to her institution. Funders are not involved in the conceptualisation, design, data collection, analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of manuscripts.

Carla Puca, Justin Kickett, and Valerie Swift do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘What voice do we have?’ Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people faced unique challenges during the COVID pandemic – https://theconversation.com/what-voice-do-we-have-aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-people-faced-unique-challenges-during-the-covid-pandemic-249155

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Narelle Miragliotta, Associate Professor in Politics, Murdoch University

The Roger Cook Labor government has been returned comfortably to government in Western Australia, securing a commanding, even if reduced, majority in the Legislative Assembly.

On election night, ABC election analyst Antony Green projected Labor had secured at least 40 of the 59 lower house seats. Even Labor’s deputy premier and treasurer, Rita Saffioti, expressed her surprise at the size of the party’s victory.

The Liberals also made ground, despite conceding Labor’s “emphatic” victory. They achieved a more than +7% swing in the state-wide share of the primary vote and, by late on Saturday night, had gained double-digit swings on a two-party basis in 33 electorates. At at least two seats had registered swings of more than 20%.

The Liberals retained the two lower house seats they held coming into this election – Vasse and Cottesloe – and regained the seats of Carine, Churchlands and Nedlands. The victory in Nedlands was achieved with an almost +12% swing. The Liberals are also ahead in the count in the seats of Albany, Kalgoorlie, Murray-Wellington. The Liberals will enter the 42nd parliament as the official opposition party.

The Nationals also have reason to celebrate. The party retained its three lower seats, and have gained a fourth seat, winning Geraldton, which was previously held by Labor and the Liberals at different periods. The party is also ahead in the count in the seat of Warren-Blackwood, a seat Labor won from the Nationals in 2021. Interestingly, the Poll Bludger’s, William Bowe has the Nationals ahead in Albany.

The Greens’ share of the state-wide primary vote rebounded to double digits, registering a swing of +3.5%. The Greens’ representation in the Legislative Council has also quadrupled from one councillor to four. And at least one of the teal independents, Kate Hulett, might just wrestle the inner metropolitan seat of Fremantle from Labor.

Losing amid the winning

While the parties will be able to claim their share of success, all lost ground in some way.

The vote correction Labor was expecting was emphatically delivered. The state-wide swing against Labor was around 18%, its primary vote likely to land somewhere in the low 40% range. The party will also lose its majority in the Legislative Council, with the party securing 15 seats (compared to 22 in 2021) in the 37 seat chamber. Even though Labor strategists were anticipating decline in its vote share given the fantastical swings the party enjoyed in 2021, they will be smarting from the outcome.

The swing against Labor did not break decisively in the Liberals’ direction. The Liberals barely regained two of their traditional blue-ribbon seats. The party narrowly won the seat of Churchlands (+1.8% swing), the most marginal Labor-held seat coming into this election. Cottesloe, a seat the Liberals have occupied uninterrupted since its creation in 1950, managed a swing of just under +5%. This is despite the Liberals’ candidate, Sandra Brewer, campaigning full time for 12 months.

In the Legislative Council, the party’s primary vote did strengthen but was a subdued 27.79%, which has delivered the Liberals three additional council members on their 2021 numbers.

The Liberals’ traditional inner metropolitan electorates are not in a hurry to return to the party. This may reflect the difficulties for the Liberals in straddling the policy and, perhaps, cultural divides between their traditional inner metropolitan seats, and outer metropolitan and rural and regional seats.

The Nationals increased their lower house contingent, but their statewide primary vote grew by just over 1%, despite fielding four more candidates than they did in 2021. Specifically, the Nationals ran candidates in the (traditionally safe Liberal) inner metropolitan seats of Bateman, Darling Range, Kalamunda and South Perth, ostensibly in response to the Liberals’ pre-election refusal to not run candidates against the Nationals.

However, the Nationals’ primary vote in these inner metropolitan seats averaged around 6.5%, confirming the party’s appeal in metropolitan seats is thin. The Nationals representation in the Legislative Council declined from three to two councillors.

And while the Greens managed to improve their primary vote, it is hard to know whether it is a positive vote for the Greens or a vote against the major parties. The Greens (15.8%) were also out polled by the Teal independent (28.8%) in the inner metropolitan electorate of Fremantle. The Greens might have been expected to have finished in second place behind Labor, not third, in this seat.

What next?

Labor will now have to get on with the business of governing, and hope to be able to do enough in the intervening four years to remain competitive for a fourth term, especially among their own supporters. As expert Ben Raue has pointed out, some of the largest swings against Labor were “in their safer seats”.

The Liberals will have to make a decision about who will lead the parliamentary party. It is unclear whether Libby Mettam will remain the leader. Well before the results were in on election night, her colleague, Steve Thomas, was not prepared to offer his full-throated endorsement.

However, Mettam’s putative successor, Basil Zemplias, did not emerge from this election unscathed, barely scraping a victory in Churchlands despite his high-profile status. Realistically, however, Mettam is the only person with the experience to lead the party in the lower house.

The other relationship to watch is between the Nationals and the Liberals. The two parties are not on great terms, and with the federal seat of Bullwinkel to be fiercely contested, one might expect things between them to get worse before they get better.

Certainly, Nationals leader Shane Love was quick to point out on election night that the Liberals had not been responsive to cooperation. Former Liberal Premier Colin Barnett has suggested the two parties should again entertain a merger. However, given the history between them, it is unlikely.

The election is over, but the reverberation for all parties will be felt for months and years to come.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Another decisive Labor win in WA, but much remains at stake – https://theconversation.com/another-decisive-labor-win-in-wa-but-much-remains-at-stake-249693

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jodie Bailie, Senior Research Fellow, The University Centre for Rural Health and The Centre for Disability Research and Policy, University of Sydney

Ex-cyclone Alfred is bringing significant rainfall to southeast Queensland and the Northern Rivers of New South Wales. Flooding has hit Lismore, Ballina, Grafton, Brisbane and Hervey Bay, which received 150 mm of rainfall in two hours this morning.

Tragically, a 61-year-old man died after being swept away in floodwaters near Dorrigo in northern New South Wales.

More heavy rain and flash flooding is expected in the coming days as the weather system moves inland and weakens.

Climate change is making these weather events more intense and frequent. Earlier this year, far north Queensland experienced major flooding. As residents of the Northern Rivers, this latest disaster is especially tough because only three years ago we faced the catastrophic 2022 floods.

We’ve studied the impact of floods on human health and wellbeing, and found floods are linked to a range of physical and mental health effects in both the short- and long-term.

So what might you experience if you live in an area affected by these floods?

We reviewed the evidence

We recently reviewed research on the physical and mental health impacts of floods across mainland Australia. We included 69 studies in our review, published over 70 years. The majority were from the past ten years, examining the effects of floods in Queensland and NSW.

These studies suggest people can expect a range of health impacts. Immediate physical health effects of floods include drowning, falls and injuries.

Chronic diseases such as diabetes or renal disease can also worsen due to factors such as reduced access to transport, health-care services, medications and hospitals.

Exposure to contaminated floodwaters can lead to skin infections, while respiratory problems can occur due to mould and damp housing in the aftermath of floods.

Floods also create ideal conditions for mosquito borne infections such as Ross River virus and Murray Valley encephalitis, while also spreading infectious diseases including leptospirosis, a bacterial infection from contaminated soil.

Read more:
Don’t go wading in flood water if you can help it. It’s a health risk for humans – and dogs too

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There are mental health consequences too

Our review showed floods also affect mental health. The more you’re exposed to floodwaters in your home or business, the worse the mental health impacts are likely to be.

The After the Flood study examined mental health and wellbeing outcomes six months after the 2017 flood in the Northern Rivers. It found people who had floodwater in their home, yard or business, or who were displaced from their home for a more than six months, were much more likely to have probable post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety or depression, compared to those who didn’t experience flooding or weren’t displaced.

Repeated natural disasters could compound these mental health consequences. Southeast Queensland and the Northern Rivers in NSW have experienced multiple disasters over recent years. The Northern Rivers faced major flooding in 2017, bushfires in 2020, further major floods in 2022, and now Cyclone Alfred in 2025. These repeated disasters have taken a toll on our community, creating a seemingly never-ending cycle of recovery, rebuilding and preparation for the next disaster.

Our understanding of the unique challenges faced by communities which experience multiple disasters is still growing. However, a recent Australian study showed exposure to repeated disasters has a compounding effect on people’s mental health, leading to worse mental health outcomes compared to people who experience a single disaster.

Read more:
Cyclone Alfred is already retraumatising people who’ve lived through other disasters. I’m one of them

Mums and babies

The health effects of floods extend far beyond the initial emergency and beyond the infections and mental health consequences you might expect.

The Queensland Flood Study tracked pregnant women exposed to the 2011 Brisbane floods. Researchers assessed mothers’ stress related to the flood and tracked them and their children at six weeks old, six months, 16 months, 2.5 years, four and six years. It found some links between prenatal stress and developmental outcomes in children.

While the health effects after flooding are diverse, the research to date is not comprehensive. We need to learn more about how floods contribute to or exacerbate existing chronic illnesses, disability and long-term mental health issues.

The impacts are inequitable

Flooding exposes and worsens existing inequalities. Socially vulnerable groups are more likely to be exposed to flooding in their homes and have less access to resources to respond and recover from these events, putting some groups at higher risk of negative health impacts afterwards.

Some research has looked at the disproportionate impacts on people with disabilities and their carers, First Nations communities and people from disadvantaged backgrounds.

After the 2017 Northern Rivers floods, for example, people with disability and their carers were more likely than others to:

• experience disrupted access to food, support networks and essentials such as health care and social services
• continue to be distressed about the flood six months after it happened
• be at relatively high risk of post-traumatic stress disorder six months after the flood.

However, targeted flood research exploring the experiences of these vulnerable groups in Australia is limited.

Moving forward, it’s vital we examine the varied impacts of flood events for more vulnerable groups, so we can better support them in the wake of devastating events such as Cyclone Alfred.

If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.

Read more:
Returning home after a flood? Prioritise your health and take it one step at a time

Jodie Bailie is a Chief Investigator on the National Health and Medical Research Council-funded Centre of Research Excellence in Achieving Health Equity for All People with Disabilities (CRE-AHEAD, Grant #2035278).

Jo Longman has received funding from the NSW State Government Disaster Risk Reduction Fund and the Healthy Environments and Lives Innovation Fund. She is affiliated as a volunteer with Plan C’s research team.

Rebecca McNaught has received funding from the Healthy Environments and Lives Innovation Fund. She is a Board member of Plan C.

Ross Bailie is an investigator on several research projects that are supported by funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council and Australian Research Council.

– ref. Ex-Cyclone Alfred has left flooding in its wake. Here’s how floods affect our health – https://theconversation.com/ex-cyclone-alfred-has-left-flooding-in-its-wake-heres-how-floods-affect-our-health-251488

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The “maybe” March 25 budget is now a definite, the government’s hand forced by cyclone Alfred.

Anthony Albanese held open his option of calling an April 12 poll this weekend until the battering winds and waves and certain flooding made totally clear on Friday what had been obvious to many people from the start. Announcing an election on the back of a cyclone would be madness.

But the prime minister couldn’t quite bring himself to admit the April poll had been in his sights, although that was widely acknowledged within the government. He told the ABC late Friday, “I have very clearly said for a long period of time that we announced last year we’d produce a budget on March 25. That certainly is my clear intention, and has been.”

Which doesn’t exactly fit with quite a few people around the government, who had been on election alert, being left discombobulated by the turn of events.

This unavoidable budget presents opportunities and risks for the government.

It will frame the campaign that follows for a May election (the options are May 3, 10 or 17), and elevate the status of measures it contains (likely to include more relief for energy bills) from campaign promises.

It will also put front and centre the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, the government’s best communicator.

On the downside, as many have said, it will highlight a string of deficits. But independent economist Chris Richardson points out these numbers would have come out anyway, either in an economic statement the government probably would have brought down if there was no budget or (compulsorily) in the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook (PEFO) prepared by Treasury and Finance and released in the campaign.

Richardson also argues that, deficits notwithstanding, the government will have good news to emphasise in the budget, about falling inflation and strong employment, plus revenue improvements since the mid-year budget update in December.

The government has already been announcing big spending items this year so it can’t afford, if it is being responsible, to throw too much more money around on March 25.

The pressures on the budget will be increased by the costs imposed by Alfred. Albanese said on Saturday, “This will have an impact on the national economy – there’s no question about that. Already it’s having an impact.”

The prime minister adopted a particularly high profile in the days leading up to and during the cyclone (even though state governments carry the big loads). The message is his government is here to, and able to, support people in times of trouble and need. There is the opportunity to use the experience of the cyclone to make this a more general theme in the budget – that the government has your back. That’s assuming the aftermath of the cyclone is not filled with stories of things going wrong.

Many in the commentariat are likely to approach the budget with a mindset of scepticism, just because it will be an election budget. This means the publicity around it might be more negative than positive.

Budget week will give opposition leader Peter Dutton the traditional reply on the Thursday night. Depending on how he handles himself, this could be a useful platform for him. On the other hand, an unconvincing speech would be damaging.

Then there are the Senate estimates hearings. These can be dangerous for a government, affording the opposition a forum to pull the budget apart and in practice to range more widely in quizzing officials.

We saw last week how potent Senate hearings can be, when they exposed details around the Chinese Navy’s live-fire exercise in the Tasman Sea. The hearings revealed the extent to which Australia had been caught short.

Back in the government’s engine room at the weekend, they say most of the major decisions for the budget have been taken. The focus will turn to last minute tinkering, and the messaging and cosmetics. But before he gets to that, Chalmers on Saturday was out and about in his Brisbane community of Logan, where the preoccupation remained the aftermath of now ex-tropical cyclone Alfred.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. View from The Hill: Alfred forces Albanese into budget of risks and opportunities – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-alfred-forces-albanese-into-budget-of-risks-and-opportunities-251622

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elizabeth Westrupp, Associate Professor in Psychology, Deakin University

Cyclones and floods are terrifying and unpredictable. The stress of ensuring your family’s safety, worrying about what might happen and then coping with the aftermath can feel overwhelming.

Some parents are also managing kids and young people through the crisis. You may be worrying about how these events may impact your kids going forward.

The situation is obviously very serious, but there are steps parents can take to protect their children and help them navigate the (now ex-tropical cyclone), flooding and the days that follow.

How we cope matters

Research shows the way we feel (for example, worry, fear, hope, confident) during and after traumatic events, can impact our longer-term mental health and wellbeing.

We might think distress is the most common reaction after a natural disaster. But in many cases, we can experience positive personal growth.

Research shows families do better when they actively work together, helping each other and problem-solving. Finding practical solutions together can give us a sense of control and connection.

Research also suggests if we have feelings of hope and confidence during difficult times, it can build resilience.

One way to help reduce distress is to accept the situation and acknowledge everyone’s emotions all the way through. This also helps build a sense of security and support.

Research also shows extreme reactions – such as fixating on the event/news and becoming highly distressed – or ignoring and suppressing emotions, can make it harder to cope and increase our distress.

So parents, keep calm and carry on

Parents are role models, and in stressful times, children look to us to understand the situation and how to respond.

If parents are visibly upset, fearful or anxious, it can make the situation feel out of control for children.

So while you are understandably experiencing a range of emotions, it’s helpful to process them away from young children. With older children, you can share feelings of sadness or fear, but it’s still important to remain calm to show that everything will be okay.

Sticking to familiar routines helps both you and your child feel safe. It reassures them when life continues. So, go about daily activities as best you can.

Talk things through if you need

This is not to say you should ignore the cyclone or events related to it.

Talking openly about the situation helps children understand what’s happening and gives parents the chance to reassure their kids. There’s no need to go into excessive detail – a calm, simple and factual response is usually the most effective way to comfort them.

All children are different. Some may be naturally anxious or sensitive, while others may pay less attention to what’s happening around them. In general, children are more capable of handling difficult or distressing events than we might expect.

If your child is upset or anxious, it’s important to acknowledge their emotions and listen. Empathise with your child — what has happened is frightening and their response is completely natural.

Parents may feel tempted to dismiss their child’s fears (“don’t think about it!”) to avoid making the situation worse, but emotions don’t work that way. By allowing children to express their feelings, you help them process and move through their emotions.

Read more:
How to get your kids to talk about their feelings

Restoring normal life after the storm

Once the cyclone passes, children may still feel unsettled – something big has just happened, could it happen again? It’s possible power and water are cut off, there’s flooding, or the family home is damaged, making things feel strange.

Helping them find ways to feel confident and hopeful can help speed up their recovery. Reassure your child the cyclone is over and keep offering them space to talk about what happened if they wish.

Though keep in mind, it’s important to strike a balance — while it’s helpful to let children express their emotions and connect with you, too much talk about the scary event can increase anxiety and fear.

Find things to do together to keep busy. Simple activities like arts and crafts, cooking together, or spending time outside (if it’s safe) can help restore a sense of normalcy.

If your child seems to be struggling more than expected, consider reaching out to your health professional or your child’s school for further support.

For more support and advice you can contact KidsHelpline on 1800 55 1800 or Lifeline on 13 11 14.

Elizabeth Westrupp receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council. She is affiliated with the Parenting and Family Research Alliance, Editor-in-Chief of Mental Health & Prevention, and is a registered clinical psychologist.

Emma Marshall was a recipient of a Fulbright Science and Innovation award

– ref. How can parents talk to their kids about Cyclone Alfred? – https://theconversation.com/how-can-parents-talk-to-their-kids-about-cyclone-alfred-251712

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steve Turton, Adjunct Professor of Environmental Geography, CQUniversity Australia

After a wet and wild night, residents of southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales are assessing the damage wrought by Cyclone Alfred, which has been downgraded to a tropical low. While the damaging winds have dissipated, heavy rain and the potential for major flooding is the main concern now.

The low is expected to cross the mainland coast between Maroochydore and Bribie Island on Saturday morning, before moving inland and weakening later in the day.

Heavy rain and possible flash flooding is possible on Saturday and Sunday in parts of the Mid North Coast and Northern Rivers in NSW. Rivers are rising. Severe weather warnings and flood warnings are current for southeast Queensland and northeast NSW.

According to media reports, Lismore was expected to flood around noon and low-lying surrounding areas were already flooded.

Six-hourly rainfall totals between 70mm and 130mm are likely, and may reach about 200mm in Queensland’s Border Ranges. Over a 24-hour period, rainfall totals between 150mm and 200mm are likely, and may increase to between 200mm and 300mm in some areas.

As of Saturday morning, authorities had asked Queensland residents in the storm’s path to take shelter. The State Emergency Service says northern NSW is facing “three natural disasters in one”, with gale-force winds, heavy rain and widespread flooding expected over the coming days.

In short: the danger is not over. Residents in affected areas should remain cautious and heed official advice, to keep themselves safe.

High alert for heavy rain

Intense rain bands are forming between converging (or colliding) winds: warm, moist winds from the northeast, and southeast winds from the Coral Sea. As the winds converge, they push saturated air into cooler parts of the atmosphere where it condenses and may fall as torrential rain.

These rain bands can be very slow-moving, sometimes sitting almost stationary for hours. This means they can dump huge amounts of water.

That’s what we need to watch for now. If a slow-moving rain band forms over a catchment area, it could lead to dangerous flash flooding.

At the moment, a convergence zone seems to be forming over the south Sunshine Coast and north Brisbane. This may mean northern NSW may not bear the worst of the rain. However, that region has received solid rain over the past few days and is certainly not off the hook yet.

Northern NSW has already been hit by devastating flooding in recent years, most recently in February 2022. Many of its settlements, including Lismore, are along or close to major river courses. Residents are understandably anxious about what the next few days of rain may bring.

Heavy rainfall in the Brisbane catchments remains a major concern. In Brisbane, some 20,000 properties have been warned of impacts ranging from minor inundation in yards to significant flooding inside homes. Areas most at risk include Nudgee Beach, Brighton, Windsor, Ashgrove, Morningside and Rocklea.

The below flood maps were produced by Brisbane City Council earlier this week. Note, they include the potential for storm surge risk which is all but dissipated now.

Watching the winds and beach erosion

Overnight, high winds caused quite a lot of damage, including trees coming down on houses.

While the cyclonic winds have dissipated, there’s a risk that thunderstorms will drag down stronger winds from higher in the atmosphere on Saturday. Thunderstorm activity is possible from Brisbane’s south down to northern NSW. Some areas may experience damaging wind gusts as rain squalls come through.

Coastal erosion will continue for a while yet. Cyclone Alfred released a lot of energy into the ocean and that will take a while to release as damaging swells.

Swells remain high from the northern Sunshine Coast down to northern NSW, and beaches remain closed.

Beaches have been pummelled over the past few days, eating into the sand and creating cliff faces in dunes. Much work will be needed over the next few weeks and months to restore that sand.

Widespread power outages

According to the ABC, more than 200,000 homes were without power on Friday across south-east Queensland and northern NSW. The problem was set to worsen on Saturday.

Emergency officials have warned residents not to approach downed powerlines because they may be live.

What next?

The below map released by the bureau on Saturday predicts the weather system’s future movement and intensity. The grey zone indicates the range of tracks the centre of the ex-cyclone centre may follow.

It shows the system tracking west on Saturday, out to near the town of Dalby, then heading to the southwest.

This movement will take moisture with it, bringing rain to some inland catchments from Saturday evening and into Sunday.

The rainfall predictions are dependent on the movement and position of this erratic weather system.

If it slows down inland near the coast on Saturday, the ex-cyclone will keep feeding itself with moisture from the ocean.

This cyclone has already tricked scientists a few times over the past fortnight. We will continue to watch it closely.

Steve Turton has previously received funding from the federal government.

– ref. After the winds, now comes the rain and floods. Here’s what you need to know about ex-Cyclone Alfred – https://theconversation.com/after-the-winds-now-comes-the-rain-and-floods-heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-ex-cyclone-alfred-251793