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Labor wins third successive landslide in WA election

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

With 61% of enrolled voters counted in Saturday’s Western Australian election, the ABC is calling 40 of the 59 lower house seats for Labor, five for the Liberals and four for the Nationals, with ten remaining undecided.

Vote shares are 41.8% Labor (down 18.1% since Labor’s massive 2021 win), 28.6% Liberals (up 7.3%), 5.1% Nationals (up 1.1%), 10.5% Greens (up 3.6%), 3.7% One Nation (up 2.4%), 3.1% Australian Christians (up 1.6%), 2.3% Legalise Cannabis (up 1.9%) and 3.6% independents (up 2.9%).

While Labor had a big fall in its primary vote since winning 59.9% in 2021, this fall didn’t go directly to the Liberals and Nationals, with these parties’ combined votes up 8.4%.

The ABC’s two-party estimate shows a Labor win by 58.3–41.7, an 11.3% swing to the Liberals and Nationals from the 69.7–30.3 Labor margin at the 2021 election, which was a record victory in Australia for either major party at any state or federal election.

The Poll Bludger’s results have Labor leads in 45 of the 59 seats, the Liberals in seven, the Nationals in six and one independent lead. If these are the final numbers, Labor would lose eight seats from 2021, with the Liberals gaining five, the Nationals two and independents one.

The Poll Bludger’s two-party estimate is a little worse for Labor than the ABC’s, with a Labor lead by 57.4–42.6, a 12.2% swing to the Liberals and Nationals. If the Poll Bludger’s two-party estimate is right, the final Newspoll and DemosAU polls will be correct, while if the ABC’s is right, they will have understated Labor.

I said in my preview article that polls suggested that Labor would be well down on 2021, but that they would have a bigger win than in 2017 (41 of the 59 seats on a two-party vote of 55.5–44.5). The results show this will be the case. This will be the third landslide in a row for Labor in WA.

Most seats have counted their pre-poll votes and postal votes that arrived before election day. Remaining votes will mostly be absent votes (pre-poll and election day). These votes were cast outside a voter’s home electorate, and need to be posted back to the home electorate before they can be counted. In past elections, absent votes have assisted Labor.

There are also seats, such as Fremantle and Pilbara, where no two-candidate count has yet been provided. In those seats, the electoral commission initially selected the wrong two candidates and needs to re-do the two-candidate count. Fremantle is the only seat likely to be won by a non-major party candidate.

Federal implications and the upper house

I don’t think there are many federal implications from state elections, but this election will give a morale boost for federal Labor after losing the Queensland election last October and being narrowly behind the Coalition in the polls since December.

When a state party is the same as the federal government, that party is federally dragged, and performs worse than it would if the opposite party held government federally. Labor’s big win does not suggest federal drag was a factor in WA.

However, WA accounts for only 16 of the 150 federal seats. Victoria, where federal Labor is being dragged down by an unpopular state Labor government, has 38 seats.

The Poll Bludger wrote that the Liberals had done poorly in swing terms since the 2021 election in affluent Perth seats, suggesting that affluent metropolitan federal seats won’t swing back to the Liberals, and teal independents should retain their seats.

In my preview article, I wrote that during the last term Labor had scrapped the old very malapportioned upper house system, and all 37 upper house members will be elected by statewide proportional representation with preferences. A quota is 1/38 of the vote or 2.63%.

In the upper house, 46.7% of enrolled voters have been counted, well behind the 61.3% in the lower house. Labor has 41.3%, the Liberals 27.9%, the Nationals 5.6%, the Greens 10.8%, One Nation 3.4%, Legalise Cannabis 2.8%, the Christians 2.6%, an independent group 1.3% and Animal Justice 1.1%.

On current counts, Labor would win 15 of the 37 seats, the Liberals ten, the Nationals two, the Greens four, One Nation one, Legalise Cannabis one and the Christians one. That would leave three seats undecided, with Labor, the Liberals and the independent group ahead.

However, there’s much more counting to go in the upper house, and the current counts don’t include below the line votes. The major parties do relatively badly on below the line votes and the Greens relatively well.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Labor wins third successive landslide in WA election – https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-third-successive-landslide-in-wa-election-251721

International Women’s Day activists protest in solidarity with Palestinians

Asia Pacific Report

Activists in Aotearoa New Zealand marked International Women’s Day today and the start of Ramadan this week with solidarity rallies across the country, calling for justice and peace for Palestinian women and the territories occupied illegally by Israel.

The theme this year for IWD is “For all women and girls: Rights. Equality. Empowerment” and this was the 74th week of Palestinian solidarity protests.

First speaker at the Auckland rally today, Del Abcede of the Aotearoa section of the Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom (WILPF), said the protest was “timely given how women have suffered the brunt of Israel’s war on Palestine and the Gaza ceasefire in limbo”.

Del Abcede of the Aotearoa section of the Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom (WILPF) . . . “Empowered women empower the world.” Image: David Robie/APR

“Women are the backbone of families and communities. They provide care, support and nurturing to their families and the development of children,” she said.

“Women also play a significant role in community building and often take on leadership roles in community organisations. Empowered women empower the world.”

Abcede explained how the non-government organisation WILPF had national sections in 37 countries, including the Palestine branch which was founded in 1988. WILPF works close with its Palestinian partners, Women’s Centre for Legal Aid and Counselling (WCLAC) and General Union of Palestinian Women (GUPW).

“This catastrophe is playing out on our TV screens every day. The majority of feminists in Britain — and in the West — seem to have nothing to say about it,” Abcede said, quoting gender researcher Dr Maryam Aldosarri, to cries of shame.

‘There can be no neutrality’
“In the face of such overwhelming terror, there can be no neutrality.”

Dr Aldosarri said in an article published earlier in the war on Gaza last year that the “siege and indiscriminate bombardment” had already “killed, maimed and disappeared under the rubble tens of thousands of Palestinian women and children”.

“Many more have been displaced and left to survive the harsh winter without appropriate shelter and supplies. The almost complete breakdown of the healthcare system, coupled with the lack of food and clean water, means that some 45,000 pregnant women and 68,000 breastfeeding mothers in Gaza are facing the risk of anaemia, bleeding, and death.

“Meanwhile, hundreds of Palestinian women and children in the occupied West Bank are still imprisoned, many without trial, and trying to survive in abominable conditions.”

The death toll in the war — with killings still happening in spite of the precarious ceasefire — is now more than 50,000 — mostly women and children.

Abcede read out a statement from WILPF International welcoming the ceasefire, but adding that it “was only a step”.

“Achieving durable and equitable peace demands addressing the root causes of violence and oppression. This means adhering to the International Court of Justice’s July 2024 advisory opinion by dismantling the foundational structures of colonial violence and ensuring Palestinians’ rights to self-determination, dignity and freedom.”

Action for justice and peace
Abcede also spoke about what action to take for “justice and peace” — such as countering disinformation and influencing the narrative; amplifying Palstinian voices and demands; joining rallies — “like what we do every Saturday”; supporting the global BDS (boycott, divestment and sanctions) campaign against Israel; writing letters to the government calling for special visas for Palestinians who have families in New Zealand; and donating to campaigns supporting the victims.

Lorri Mackness also of WILPF (right) . . . “Women will be delivered [of babies] in tents, corridors, or bombed out homes without anasthesia, without doctors, without clean water.” Image: David Robie/APR

Lorri Mackness, also of WILPF Aotearoa, spoke of the Zionist gendered violence against Palestinians and the ruthless attacks on Gaza’s medical workers and hospitals to destroy the health sector.

Gaza’s hospitals had been “reduced to rubble by Israeli bombs”, she said.

“UN reports that over 60,000 women would give birth this year in Gaza. But Israel has destroyed every maternity hospital.

“Women will be delivered in tents, corridors, or bombed out homes without anasthesia, without doctors, without clean water.

“When Israel killed Gaza’s only foetal medicine specialist, Dr Muhammad Obeid, it wasn’t collateral damage — it was calculated reproductive terror.”

“Now, miscarriages have spiked by 300 percent, and mothers stitch their own C-sections with sewing thread.”

‘Femicide – a war crime’
Babies who survived birth entered a world where Israel blocked food aid — 1 in 10 infants would die of starvation, 335,000 children faced starvation, and their mothers forced to watch, according to UNICEF.

“This is femicide — this is a war crime.”

Eugene Velasco, of the Filipino feminist action group Gabriela Aotearoa, said Israel’s violence in Gaza was a “clear reminder of the injustice that transcends geographical borders”.

“The injustice is magnified in Gaza where the US-funded genocide and ethnic cleansing against the Palestinian people has resulted in the deaths of more than 61,000.”

‘Pernicious’ Regulatory Standards Bill
Dr Jane Kelsey, a retired law professor and justice advocate, spoke of an issue that connected the “scourge of colonisation in Palestine and Aotearoa with the same lethal logic and goals”.

Law professor Dr Jane Kelsey . . . “Behind the scenes is ACT’s more systemic and pernicious Regulatory Standards Bill.” Image: David Robie/APR

The parallels between both colonised territories included theft of land and the creation of private property rights, and the denial of sovereign authority and self-determination.

She spoke of how international treaties that had been entered in good faith were disrespected, disregarded and “rewritten as it suits the colonising power”.

Dr Kelsey said an issue that had “gone under the radar” needed to be put on the radar and for action.

She said that while the controversial Treaty Principles Bill would not proceed because of the massive mobilisations such as the hikoi, it had served ACT’s purpose.

“Behind the scenes is ACT’s more systemic and pernicious Regulatory Standards Bill,” she said. ACT had tried three times to get the bill adopted and failed, but it was now in the coalition government’s agreement.

A ‘stain on humanity’
Meanwhile, Hamas has reacted to a Gaza government tally of the number of women who were killed by Israel’s war, reports Al Jazeera.

“The killing of 12,000 women in Gaza, the injury and arrest of thousands, and the displacement of hundreds of thousands are a stain on humanity,” the group said.

“Palestinian female prisoners are subjected to psychological and physical torture in flagrant violation of all international norms and conventions.”

Hamas added the suffering endured by Palestinian female prisoners revealed the “double standards” of Western countries, including the United States, in dealing with Palestinians.

Filipino feminist activists from Gabriela Aotearoa and the International Women’s Alliance (IWA) also participated in the pro-Palestine solidarity rally. Image: David Robie/APR

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Gallery: NZ women call for long-term peace and justice in Palestine

Asia Pacific Report

Women from Aotearoa, Philippines, Palestine and South Africa today called for justice and peace for the people of Gaza and the West Bank, currently under a genocidal siege and attacks being waged by Israel for the past 16 months.

Marking International Women’s Day, the rally highlighted the theme: “For all women and girls – Rights, equality and empowerment.”

Speakers outlined how women are the “backbone of families and communities” and how they have borne the brunt of the crimes against humanity in occupied Palestine with the “Israeli war machine” having killed more than 50,000 people, mostly women and children, since 7 October 2023.

The speakers included Del Abcede and Lorri Mackness of the International Women’s League for Peace and Freedom (WILPF), Gabriela’s Eugene Velasco, and retired law professor Jane Kelsey.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

View from The Hill: Alfred forces Albanese into budget of risks and opportunities

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The “maybe” March 25 budget is now a definite, the government’s hand forced by cyclone Alfred.

Anthony Albanese held open his option of calling an April 12 poll this weekend until the battering winds and waves and certain flooding made totally clear on Friday what had been obvious to many people from the start. Announcing an election on the back of a cyclone would be madness.

But the prime minister couldn’t quite bring himself to admit the April poll had been in his sights, although that was widely acknowledged within the government. He told the ABC late Friday, “I have very clearly said for a long period of time that we announced last year we’d produce a budget on March 25. That certainly is my clear intention, and has been.”

Which doesn’t exactly fit with quite a few people around the government, who had been on election alert, being left discombobulated by the turn of events.

This unavoidable budget presents opportunities and risks for the government.

It will frame the campaign that follows for a May election (the options are May 3, 10 or 17), and elevate the status of measures it contains (likely to include more relief for energy bills) from campaign promises.

It will also put front and centre the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, the government’s best communicator.

On the downside, as many have said, it will highlight a string of deficits. But independent economist Chris Richardson points out these numbers would have come out anyway, either in an economic statement the government probably would have brought down if there was no budget or (compulsorily) in the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook (PEFO) prepared by Treasury and Finance and released in the campaign.

Richardson also argues that, deficits notwithstanding, the government will have good news to emphasise in the budget, about falling inflation and strong employment, plus revenue improvements since the mid-year budget update in December.

The government has already been announcing big spending items this year so it can’t afford, if it is being responsible, to throw too much more money around on March 25.

The pressures on the budget will be increased by the costs imposed by Alfred. Albanese said on Saturday, “This will have an impact on the national economy – there’s no question about that. Already it’s having an impact.”

The prime minister adopted a particularly high profile in the days leading up to and during the cyclone (even though state governments carry the big loads). The message is his government is here to, and able to, support people in times of trouble and need. There is the opportunity to use the experience of the cyclone to make this a more general theme in the budget – that the government has your back. That’s assuming the aftermath of the cyclone is not filled with stories of things going wrong.

Many in the commentariat are likely to approach the budget with a mindset of scepticism, just because it will be an election budget. This means the publicity around it might be more negative than positive.

Budget week will give opposition leader Peter Dutton the traditional reply on the Thursday night. Depending on how he handles himself, this could be a useful platform for him. On the other hand, an unconvincing speech would be damaging.

Then there are the Senate estimates hearings. These can be dangerous for a government, affording the opposition a forum to pull the budget apart and in practice to range more widely in quizzing officials.

We saw last week how potent Senate hearings can be, when they exposed details around the Chinese Navy’s live-fire exercise in the Tasman Sea. The hearings revealed the extent to which Australia had been caught short.

Back in the government’s engine room at the weekend, they say most of the major decisions for the budget have been taken. The focus will turn to last minute tinkering, and the messaging and cosmetics. But before he gets to that, Chalmers on Saturday was out and about in his Brisbane community of Logan, where the preoccupation remained the aftermath of now ex-tropical cyclone Alfred.

The Conversation

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. View from The Hill: Alfred forces Albanese into budget of risks and opportunities – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-alfred-forces-albanese-into-budget-of-risks-and-opportunities-251622

Brisbane is bracing for floods yet again. History shows residents should remain on very high alert

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Margaret Cook, Research Fellow, Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University

Tropical Cyclone Alfred has passed – now downgraded to a tropical low. But do not be lured into a false sense of security. Grave dangers remain.

Parts of southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales face heavy and prolonged rain this weekend. The system is slow-moving, which means rain could continue over several days. This brings the risk of flooding, including potentially destructive flash floods in populated urban areas.

Already, low-lying areas of the Northern Rivers in NSW have begun to flood. As Prime Minister Anthony Albanese warned on Saturday, the downgrading of Alfred does not mean residents can relax, because there is “worse to come in the hours ahead”.

Locations at risk of major flooding include Brisbane, a subtropical city of more than 2.5 million people, situated on a river. As history shows, Brisbane must remain on high alert as ex-Cyclone Alfred enters a very wet phase.

Types of flooding in Brisbane

When heavy rain first starts falling, the water is mostly absorbed into the ground. But if the rain persists, the ground becomes saturated and the water drains into creeks and streams.

In very heavy rain, creeks and streams overflow and this causes flooding.

Several types of flooding occur in the Brisbane Valley:

– Flash flooding in creeks, which can be very fast and localised

– River flooding, which is slower than creek flooding. The river rises slowly and may remain above flood height for up to a week

– Backwater flooding, which occurs when flooding in the Brisbane River causes water to back up further upstream

– Storm surges, which typically occur with tropical cyclones. Cyclone Alfred brought storm surges, however this has largely dissipated

– Overland flooding, which occurs when stormwater drains overflow, or cannot cope with the water inflow.

Brisbane City Council says 20,000 properties are at risk of storm surge and flooding in the Brisbane River and creeks. The below flood maps were produced by Brisbane City Council earlier this week.



Lessons from history

Historically, floods in Brisbane are more often associated with rain depressions after cyclones, than cyclones themselves.

Take, for example, the Great Flood of Brisbane in February, 1893, which caused 35 known deaths. In the days preceding it, a cyclone passed to the north of Brisbane, bringing more than 900mm of rain over 24 hours to Crohamhurst.

In the 1893 event, water flowed over the D’Aguilar Range into the upper catchment of the Brisbane River (the Stanley and Upper Brisbane Rivers). This water travelled downstream and merged with extremely heavy rain that fell in Brisbane in January 1893.

As a result, Brisbane experienced severe flooding. The Brisbane River reached record heights of 8.35 metres.

Flooded streets of Brisbane in 1893.
Queensland State Archives

The rain depression following Cyclone Alfred looks likely to pass over the same area – just north of Brisbane – as it did in 1893. As a flood historian, I am obviously concerned about what this means for flooding in Brisbane in coming days.

Brisbane also experienced major flooding in 1974. It was caused by rain related to ex-tropical cyclone Wanda. That weather system brought more than 600mm of rain to Brisbane in three days.

And of course, the 2022 Brisbane floods are still fresh in many people’s minds. Then the Brisbane River peaked at 3.85m.

Heavy rain inundated the river’s network of 22 creeks and caused the most flooding. The situation was worst in north Brisbane, which received between 400 and 1000mm of rain over three days in late February. This was higher than the 1974 rainfall totals, and closer to the rainfall in 1893.

During the next phase of ex-tropical Cyclone Alfred, we must watch closely to see where rain falls, how much and for how long.

Preparation is key

If there are any positives to draw from Cyclone Alfred and its aftermath, it is that communities had time to prepare.

The cyclone wandered off the coast for two weeks, before heading towards land. It gave authorities time to mobilise and deliver clear, informative advice to the public.

Until recently, 97% of Australian disaster funding was spent on recovery, compared to 3% invested in mitigating risk and building resilience.

In my research and work with communities, I have advocated for proactive disaster action. This includes:

  • advanced evacuation
  • permanently relocating flood-prone residents
  • raising homes
  • rezoning to prevent development in flood-prone areas.

Bodies such as the National Emergency Management Agency, and reconstruction authorities in NSW and Queensland, are helping shift the dial towards proactive flood measures. But there is more work to do.

Armies of volunteers – and defence personnel themselves – emerge after disasters to help mop up. But I argue Australia needs an advanced party – a “flood army” if you will – that arrives before a disaster to help with preparedness such as moving possessions, cleaning gutters and drains and pruning trees.

And Brisbane’s complex picture of flood hazards means authorities must look beyond dams for flood mitigation. We must improve stormwater management, adopt new building designs and materials, and educate the public about coping with floods.

For now, affected residents should remain vigilant. Stay inside if you can so the authorities can do their work. Keep off roads and, as the slogan goes, “if it’s flooded, forget it”. Listen to the official warnings and don’t get complacent.

Margaret Cook does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Brisbane is bracing for floods yet again. History shows residents should remain on very high alert – https://theconversation.com/brisbane-is-bracing-for-floods-yet-again-history-shows-residents-should-remain-on-very-high-alert-251719

How can parents talk to their kids about Cyclone Alfred?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elizabeth Westrupp, Associate Professor in Psychology, Deakin University

Cyclones and floods are terrifying and unpredictable. The stress of ensuring your family’s safety, worrying about what might happen and then coping with the aftermath can feel overwhelming.

Some parents are also managing kids and young people through the crisis. You may be worrying about how these events may impact your kids going forward.

The situation is obviously very serious, but there are steps parents can take to protect their children and help them navigate the (now ex-tropical cyclone), flooding and the days that follow.

How we cope matters

Research shows the way we feel (for example, worry, fear, hope, confident) during and after traumatic events, can impact our longer-term mental health and wellbeing.

We might think distress is the most common reaction after a natural disaster. But in many cases, we can experience positive personal growth.

Research shows families do better when they actively work together, helping each other and problem-solving. Finding practical solutions together can give us a sense of control and connection.

Research also suggests if we have feelings of hope and confidence during difficult times, it can build resilience.

One way to help reduce distress is to accept the situation and acknowledge everyone’s emotions all the way through. This also helps build a sense of security and support.

Research also shows extreme reactions – such as fixating on the event/news and becoming highly distressed – or ignoring and suppressing emotions, can make it harder to cope and increase our distress.

So parents, keep calm and carry on

Parents are role models, and in stressful times, children look to us to understand the situation and how to respond.

If parents are visibly upset, fearful or anxious, it can make the situation feel out of control for children.

So while you are understandably experiencing a range of emotions, it’s helpful to process them away from young children. With older children, you can share feelings of sadness or fear, but it’s still important to remain calm to show that everything will be okay.

Sticking to familiar routines helps both you and your child feel safe. It reassures them when life continues. So, go about daily activities as best you can.

Talk things through if you need

This is not to say you should ignore the cyclone or events related to it.

Talking openly about the situation helps children understand what’s happening and gives parents the chance to reassure their kids. There’s no need to go into excessive detail – a calm, simple and factual response is usually the most effective way to comfort them.

All children are different. Some may be naturally anxious or sensitive, while others may pay less attention to what’s happening around them. In general, children are more capable of handling difficult or distressing events than we might expect.

If your child is upset or anxious, it’s important to acknowledge their emotions and listen. Empathise with your child — what has happened is frightening and their response is completely natural.

Parents may feel tempted to dismiss their child’s fears (“don’t think about it!”) to avoid making the situation worse, but emotions don’t work that way. By allowing children to express their feelings, you help them process and move through their emotions.




Read more:
How to get your kids to talk about their feelings


Restoring normal life after the storm

Once the cyclone passes, children may still feel unsettled – something big has just happened, could it happen again? It’s possible power and water are cut off, there’s flooding, or the family home is damaged, making things feel strange.

Helping them find ways to feel confident and hopeful can help speed up their recovery. Reassure your child the cyclone is over and keep offering them space to talk about what happened if they wish.

Though keep in mind, it’s important to strike a balance — while it’s helpful to let children express their emotions and connect with you, too much talk about the scary event can increase anxiety and fear.

Find things to do together to keep busy. Simple activities like arts and crafts, cooking together, or spending time outside (if it’s safe) can help restore a sense of normalcy.

If your child seems to be struggling more than expected, consider reaching out to your health professional or your child’s school for further support.

For more support and advice you can contact KidsHelpline on 1800 55 1800 or Lifeline on 13 11 14.

The Conversation

Elizabeth Westrupp receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council. She is affiliated with the Parenting and Family Research Alliance, Editor-in-Chief of Mental Health & Prevention, and is a registered clinical psychologist.

Emma Marshall was a recipient of a Fulbright Science and Innovation award

ref. How can parents talk to their kids about Cyclone Alfred? – https://theconversation.com/how-can-parents-talk-to-their-kids-about-cyclone-alfred-251712

After the winds, now comes the rain and floods. Here’s what you need to know about ex-Cyclone Alfred

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steve Turton, Adjunct Professor of Environmental Geography, CQUniversity Australia

After a wet and wild night, residents of southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales are assessing the damage wrought by Cyclone Alfred, which has been downgraded to a tropical low. While the damaging winds have dissipated, heavy rain and the potential for major flooding is the main concern now.

The low is expected to cross the mainland coast between Maroochydore and Bribie Island on Saturday morning, before moving inland and weakening later in the day.

Heavy rain and possible flash flooding is possible on Saturday and Sunday in parts of the Mid North Coast and Northern Rivers in NSW. Rivers are rising. Severe weather warnings and flood warnings are current for southeast Queensland and northeast NSW.

According to media reports, Lismore was expected to flood around noon and low-lying surrounding areas were already flooded.

A video update on ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred released by the Bureau of Meteorology on Saturday morning.

Six-hourly rainfall totals between 70mm and 130mm are likely, and may reach about 200mm in Queensland’s Border Ranges. Over a 24-hour period, rainfall totals between 150mm and 200mm are likely, and may increase to between 200mm and 300mm in some areas.

As of Saturday morning, authorities had asked Queensland residents in the storm’s path to take shelter. The State Emergency Service says northern NSW is facing “three natural disasters in one”, with gale-force winds, heavy rain and widespread flooding expected over the coming days.

In short: the danger is not over. Residents in affected areas should remain cautious and heed official advice, to keep themselves safe.

to come
An image showing 48-hour rainfall predictions from 8am Saturday.
The Bureau of Meteorology ACCESS 12km resolution model

High alert for heavy rain

Intense rain bands are forming between converging (or colliding) winds: warm, moist winds from the northeast, and southeast winds from the Coral Sea. As the winds converge, they push saturated air into cooler parts of the atmosphere where it condenses and may fall as torrential rain.

These rain bands can be very slow-moving, sometimes sitting almost stationary for hours. This means they can dump huge amounts of water.

That’s what we need to watch for now. If a slow-moving rain band forms over a catchment area, it could lead to dangerous flash flooding.

At the moment, a convergence zone seems to be forming over the south Sunshine Coast and north Brisbane. This may mean northern NSW may not bear the worst of the rain. However, that region has received solid rain over the past few days and is certainly not off the hook yet.

Satellite gif of ex-tropical cyclone Alfred hitting Queensland
Ex-tropical cyclone Alfred was downgraded to a tropical low.
Bureau of Meteorology, Himawari-9 satellite, CC BY-SA

Northern NSW has already been hit by devastating flooding in recent years, most recently in February 2022. Many of its settlements, including Lismore, are along or close to major river courses. Residents are understandably anxious about what the next few days of rain may bring.

Heavy rainfall in the Brisbane catchments remains a major concern. In Brisbane, some 20,000 properties have been warned of impacts ranging from minor inundation in yards to significant flooding inside homes. Areas most at risk include Nudgee Beach, Brighton, Windsor, Ashgrove, Morningside and Rocklea.

The below flood maps were produced by Brisbane City Council earlier this week. Note, they include the potential for storm surge risk which is all but dissipated now.



Watching the winds and beach erosion

Overnight, high winds caused quite a lot of damage, including trees coming down on houses.

While the cyclonic winds have dissipated, there’s a risk that thunderstorms will drag down stronger winds from higher in the atmosphere on Saturday. Thunderstorm activity is possible from Brisbane’s south down to northern NSW. Some areas may experience damaging wind gusts as rain squalls come through.

Coastal erosion will continue for a while yet. Cyclone Alfred released a lot of energy into the ocean and that will take a while to release as damaging swells.

Swells remain high from the northern Sunshine Coast down to northern NSW, and beaches remain closed.

Beaches have been pummelled over the past few days, eating into the sand and creating cliff faces in dunes. Much work will be needed over the next few weeks and months to restore that sand.

Widespread power outages

According to the ABC, more than 200,000 homes were without power on Friday across south-east Queensland and northern NSW. The problem was set to worsen on Saturday.

Emergency officials have warned residents not to approach downed powerlines because they may be live.



What next?

The below map released by the bureau on Saturday predicts the weather system’s future movement and intensity. The grey zone indicates the range of tracks the centre of the ex-cyclone centre may follow.

It shows the system tracking west on Saturday, out to near the town of Dalby, then heading to the southwest.

This movement will take moisture with it, bringing rain to some inland catchments from Saturday evening and into Sunday.

The rainfall predictions are dependent on the movement and position of this erratic weather system.

If it slows down inland near the coast on Saturday, the ex-cyclone will keep feeding itself with moisture from the ocean.

This cyclone has already tricked scientists a few times over the past fortnight. We will continue to watch it closely.

The Conversation

Steve Turton has previously received funding from the federal government.

ref. After the winds, now comes the rain and floods. Here’s what you need to know about ex-Cyclone Alfred – https://theconversation.com/after-the-winds-now-comes-the-rain-and-floods-heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-ex-cyclone-alfred-251793

Through the lens of time: A tribute to ‘Rocky’ Roe’s PNG photography

PROFILE: By Malum Nalu in Port Moresby

For nearly half a century, Papua New Guinea has been more than just a home for Laurence “Rocky” Roe — it has been his canvas, his inspiration, and his great love.

A master behind the lens, Rocky has captured the soul of the nation through his photography, preserving moments of history, culture, and progress.

He bid farewell to the country he has called home since 1976 in June 2021 and is now retired and living in Australia. We reflect on the extraordinary journey of a man whose work has become an indelible part of PNG’s visual history.

A journey born of adventure
Rocky Roe’s story began in Adelaide, Australia, where he was born in 1947. His adventure in Papua New Guinea started in 1976 when he arrived as a mechanical fitter for Bougainville Copper. But his heart sought more than the structured life of a mining camp.

In 1979, he took a leap of faith, moving to Port Moresby and trading a higher salary for a passion — photography. What he lost in pay, he gained in purpose.

“I wanted to see Papua New Guinea,” Rocky recalls. “And I got an opportunity to get paid to see it.”

Capturing the essence of a nation
From corporate photography to historic events, Rocky’s lens has documented the evolution of Papua New Guinea. He was there when leaders rose to prominence, capturing moments that would later adorn national currency — his photograph of Grand Chief Sir Michael Somare graces the K50 note.

His work went beyond the formal; he ventured deep into the Highlands, the islands, and bustling townships, preserving the heart and spirit of the people.

With each shot, he chronicled the changing landscape of Port Moresby. From a city of well-kept roads and modest housing in the 1970s to its present-day urban sprawl, Rocky witnessed and documented it all.

The evolution of photography
Rocky’s career spanned a transformative era in photography — from the meticulous world of slide film, where exposure errors were unforgiving, to the digital revolution, where technology made photography more accessible.

“Autofocus hadn’t been invented,” he recalls. “Half the world couldn’t focus a camera back then.” Yet, through skill and patience, he mastered the art, adapting as the industry evolved.

His assignments took him to mine sites, oil fields, and remote locations where only helicopters could reach.

“I spent many hours flying with the door off, capturing PNG from above. Looking through the camera made it all feel natural. Without it, I might have been scared.”

The man behind the camera
Despite the grandeur of his work, Rocky remains humble. A storyteller at heart, his greatest joy has been the connections he forged—whether photographing Miss PNG contestants over the years or engaging with young photographers eager to learn.

He speaks fondly of his colleagues, the friendships he built, and the country that embraced him as one of its own.

His time in Papua New Guinea was not without challenges. He encountered moments of danger, faced armed hold-ups, and saw the country grapple with law and order issues. Yet, his love for PNG never wavered.

“It’s the greatest place on earth,” he says, reflecting on his journey.

A fond farewell, but not goodbye
Now, as Rocky returns to Australia to tend to his health, he leaves behind a legacy that will live on in the countless images he captured. Papua New Guinea will always be home to him, and its people, his extended family.

“I may come back if someone brings me back,” he says with a knowing smile.

Papua New Guinea bids farewell to a legend, a visual historian who gave us the gift of memories frozen in time. His photographs are not just images; they are stories, emotions, and a testament to a life well-lived in the pursuit of beauty and truth.

Farewell, Rocky Roe. Your work will continue to inspire generations to come.

Independent Papua New Guinea journalist Malum Nalu first published this article on his blog Happenings in Papua New Guinea as part of a series leading up to PNG’s 50th anniversary this year. Republished with permission.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Trump has ‘declared war against the American people’, says Ralph Nader

Democracy Now!

AMY GOODMAN: President Trump addressed a joint session of Congress in a highly partisan 100-minute speech, the longest presidential address to Congress in modern history on Wednesday.

Trump defended his sweeping actions over the past six weeks.

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: We have accomplished more in 43 days than most administrations accomplished in four years or eight years, and we are just getting started.

AMY GOODMAN: President Trump praised his biggest campaign donor, the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, who’s leading Trump’s effort to dismantle key government agencies and cut critical government services.

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: And to that end, I have created the brand-new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Perhaps you’ve heard of it. Perhaps.

Which is headed by Elon Musk, who is in the gallery tonight. Thank you, Elon. He’s working very hard. He didn’t need this. He didn’t need this. Thank you very much. We appreciate it.

AMY GOODMAN: Some Democrats laughed and pointed at Elon Musk when President Trump made this comment later in his speech.

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: It’s very simple. And the days of rule by unelected bureaucrats are over.

AMY GOODMAN: During his speech, President Trump repeatedly attacked the trans and immigrant communities, defended his tariffs that have sent stock prices spiraling, vowed to end Russia’s war on Ukraine and threatened to take control of Greenland.

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: We also have a message tonight for the incredible people of Greenland: We strongly support your right to determine your own future, and if you choose, we welcome you into the United States of America. We need Greenland for national security and even international security, and we’re working with everybody involved to try and get it.

But we need it, really, for international world security. And I think we’re going to get it. One way or the other, we’re going to get it.


‘A declaration of war against the American people.’  Video: Democracy Now!

AMY GOODMAN: During Trump’s 100-minute address, Democratic lawmakers held up signs in protest reading “This is not normal,” “Save Medicaid” and “Musk steals.”

One Democrat, Congressmember Al Green of Texas, was removed from the chamber for protesting against the President.

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Likewise, small business optimism saw its single-largest one-month gain ever recorded, a 41-point jump.

REPUBLICAN CONGRESSMEMBER 1: Sit down!

REPUBLICAN CONGRESSMEMBER 2: Order!

SPEAKER MIKE JOHNSON: Members are directed to uphold and maintain decorum in the House and to cease any further disruptions. That’s your warning. Members are engaging in willful and continuing breach of decorum, and the chair is prepared to direct the sergeant-at-arms to restore order to the joint session.

Mr Green, take your seat. Take your seat, sir.

DEMOCRAT CONGRESS MEMBER AL GREEN: He has no mandate to cut Medicaid!

SPEAKER MIKE JOHNSON: Take your seat. Finding that members continue to engage in willful and concerted disruption of proper decorum, the chair now directs the sergeant-at-arms to restore order, remove this gentleman from the chamber.

AMY GOODMAN: That was House Speaker Mike Johnson, who called in security to take Texas Democratic Congressmember Al Green out. Afterwards, Green spoke to reporters after being removed.

Democrat Congressman Al Green (Texas) . . . “I have people who are very fearful. These are poor people, and they have only Medicaid in their lives when it comes to their healthcare.” Image: DN screenshot APR

DEMOCRAT CONGRESS MEMBER AL GREEN: The President said he had a mandate, and I was making it clear to the President that he has no mandate to cut Medicaid.

I have people who are very fearful. These are poor people, and they have only Medicaid in their lives when it comes to their healthcare. And I want him to know that his budget calls for deep cuts in Medicaid.

He needs to save Medicaid, protect it. We need to raise the cap on Social Security. There’s a possibility that it’s going to be hurt. And we’ve got to protect Medicare.

These are the safety net programmes that people in my congressional district depend on. And this President seems to care less about them and more about the number of people that he can remove from the various programmes that have been so helpful to so many people.

AMY GOODMAN: Texas Democratic Congressmember Al Green.

We begin today’s show with Ralph Nader, the longtime consumer advocate, corporate critic, former presidential candidate. Ralph Nader is founder of the Capitol Hill Citizen newspaper. His most recent lead article in the new issue of Capitol Hill Citizen is titled “Democratic Party: Apologise to America for ushering Trump back in.”

He is also the author of the forthcoming book Let’s Start the Revolution: Tools for Displacing the Corporate State and Building a Country That Works for the People.

Medicaid, Social Security, Medicare, all these different programmes. Ralph Nader, respond overall to President Trump’s, well, longest congressional address in modern history.

Environmentalist and consumer protection activist Ralph Nader . . . And he’s taken Biden’s genocidal policies one step further by demanding the evacuation of Palestinians from Gaza. Image: DN screenshot APR

RALPH NADER: Well, it was also a declaration of war against the American people, including Trump voters, in favour of the super-rich and the giant corporations. What Trump did last night was set a record for lies, delusionary fantasies, predictions of future broken promises — a rerun of his first term — boasts about progress that don’t exist.

In practice, he has launched a trade war. He has launched an arms race with China and Russia. He has perpetuated and even worsened the genocidal support against the Palestinians. He never mentioned the Palestinians once.

And he’s taken Biden’s genocidal policies one step further by demanding the evacuation of Palestinians from Gaza.

But taking it as a whole, Amy, what we’re seeing here defies most of dictionary adjectives. What Trump and Musk and Vance and the supine Republicans are doing are installing an imperial, militaristic domestic dictatorship that is going to end up in a police state.

You can see his appointments are yes people bent on suppression of civil liberties, civil rights. You can see his breakthrough, after over 120 years, of announcing conquest of Panama Canal.

He’s basically said, one way or another, he’s going to take Greenland. These are not just imperial controls of countries overseas or overthrowing them; it’s actually seizing land.

Now, on the Greenland thing, Greenland is a province of Denmark, which is a member of NATO. He is ready to basically conquer a part of Denmark in violation of Section 5 of NATO, at the same time that he has displayed full-throated support for a hardcore communist dictator, Vladimir Putin, who started out with the Russian version of the CIA under the Soviet Union and now has over 20 years of communist dictatorship, allied, of course, with a number of oligarchs, a kind of kleptocracy.

And the Republicans are buying all this in Congress. This is complete reversal of everything that the Republicans stood for against communist dictators.

So, what we’re seeing here is a phony programme of government efficiency ripping apart people’s programmes. The attack on Social Security is new, complete lies about millions of people aged 110, 120, getting Social Security cheques.

That’s a new attack. He left Social Security alone in his first term, but now he’s going after [it]. So, what they’re going to do is cut Medicaid and cut other social safety nets in order to pay for another tax cut for the super-rich and the corporation, throwing in no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security benefits, which will, of course, further increase the deficit and give the lie to his statement that he wants a balanced budget.

So we’re dealing with a deranged, unstable pathological liar, who’s getting away with it. And the question is: How does he get away with it, year after year? Because the Democratic Party has basically collapsed.

They don’t know how to deal with a criminal recidivist, a person who has hired workers without documents and exploited them, a person who’s a bigot against immigrants, including legal immigrants who are performing totally critical tasks in home healthcare, processing poultry, meat, and half of the construction workers in Texas are undocumented workers.

So, as a bully, he doesn’t go after the construction industry in Texas; he picks out individuals.

I thought the most disgraceful thing, Amy, yesterday was his use of these unfortunate people who suffered as props, holding one up after another. But they were also Trump’s crutches to cover up his contradictory behavior.

So, he praised the police yesterday, but he pardoned over 600 people who attacked violently the police [in the attack on the Capitol] on 6 January 2021 and were convicted and imprisoned as a result, and he let them out of prison. I thought the most —

JUAN GONZÁLEZ: Ralph? Ralph, I —

RALPH NADER: — the most heartrending thing was that 13-year-old child, who wanted to be a police officer when he grew up, being held up twice by his father. And he was so bewildered as to what was going on. And Trump’s use of these people was totally reprehensible and should be called out.

Now, more basically, the real inefficiencies in government, they’re ignoring, because they are kleptocrats. They’re ignoring corporate crimes on Medicaid, Medicare, tens of billions of dollars every year ripping off Medicare, ripping off government contracts, such as defence contracts.

He’s ignoring hundreds of billions of dollars of corporate welfare, including that doled out to Elon Musk — subsidies, handouts, giveaways, bailouts, you name it. And he’s ignoring the bloated military budget, which he is supporting the Republicans in actually increasing the military budget more than the generals have asked for. So, that’s the revelation —

JUAN GONZÁLEZ: Ralph? Ralph, if I — Ralph, if I can interrupt? I just need to —

RALPH NADER: — that the Democrats need to pursue.

JUAN GONZÁLEZ: Ralph, I wanted to ask you about — specifically about Medicaid and Medicare. You’ve mentioned the cuts to these safety net programmes. What about Medicaid, especially the crisis in this country in long-term care? What do you see happening in this Trump administration, especially with the Republican majority in Congress?

RALPH NADER: Well, they’re going to slash — they’re going to move to slash Medicaid, which serves over 71 million people, including millions of Trump voters, who should be reconsidering their vote as the days pass, because they’re being exploited in red states, blue states, everywhere, as well.

Yeah, they have to cut tens of billions of dollars a year from Medicaid to pay for the tax cut. That’s number one. Now they’re going after Social Security. Who knows what the next step will be on Medicare? They’re leaving Americans totally defenceless by slashing meat and poultry and food inspection laws, auto safety.

They’re exposing people to climate violence by cutting FEMA, the rescue agency. They’re cutting forest rangers that deal with wildfires. They’re cutting protections against pandemics and epidemics by slashing and ravaging and suppressing free speech in scientific circles, like CDC and National Institutes of Health.

They’re leaving the American people defenseless.

And where are the Democrats on this? I mean, look at Senator Slotkin’s response. It was a typical rerun of a feeble, weak Democratic rebuttal. She couldn’t get herself, just like the Democrats in 2024, which led to Trump’s victory — they can’t get themselves, Juan, to talk specifically and authentically about raising the minimum wage, expanding healthcare, cracking down on corporate crooks that are bleeding out the incomes of hard-pressed American workers and the poor.

They can’t get themselves to talk about increasing frozen Social Security budgets for 50 years, that 200 Democrats supported raising, but Nancy Pelosi kept them, when she was Speaker, from taking John Larson’s bill to the House floor.

That’s why they lose. Look at her speech. It was so vague and general. They chose her because she was in the national security state. She was a former CIA. They chose her because they wanted to promote the losing version of the Democratic Party, instead of choosing Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders, the most popular polled politician in America today.

That’s who they chose. So, as long as the Democrats monopolise the opposition and crush third-party efforts to push them into more progressive realms, the Republican, plutocratic, Wall Street, war machine declaration of war against the American people will continue.

We’re heading into the most serious crisis in American history. There’s no comparison.

AMY GOODMAN: Ralph Nader, we’re going to have to leave it there, but, of course, we’re going to continue to cover these issues. And I also wanted to wish you, Ralph, a happy 91st birthday. Ralph Nader —

RALPH NADER: I wish people to get the Capitol Hill Citizen, which tells people what they can really do to win democracy and justice back. So, for $5 or donation or more, if you wish, you can go to Capitol Hill Citizen and get a copy sent immediately by first-class mail, or more copies for your circle, of resisting and protesting and prevailing over this Trump dictatorship.

AMY GOODMAN: Ralph Nader, longtime consumer advocate, corporate critic, four-time presidential candidate, founder of the Capitol Hill Citizen newspaper. This is Democracy Now!

The original content of this programme is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States Licence. Republished by Asia Pacific Report under Creative Commons.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

The EU will spend billions more on defence. It’s a powerful statement – but won’t do much for Ukraine

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jessica Genauer, Senior Lecturer in International Relations, Flinders University

On March 3, US President Donald Trump paused all US military aid to Ukraine. This move was apparently triggered by a heated exchange a few days earlier between Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office.

In response, European Union leaders have now committed to rearm Europe by mobilising €800 billion (about A$1.4 trillion) in defence spending.

26 of the EU leaders (excluding Hungary) signed an agreement that peace for Ukraine must be accompanied by “robust and credible” security guarantees.

They agreed there can be no negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine’s participation. It was also agreed the EU will continue to provide regular military and non-military support to Ukraine.

This jump in defence spending is unprecedented for the EU, with 2024 spending hitting a previous record high of €326 billion (A$558 billion).

At the same time, the United Kingdom has committed to the biggest increase in defence spending since the Cold War.

The EU’s united front will create strong defences and deter a direct attack on EU nations.

However, for Ukraine, it will not lead to a military victory in its war with Russia. While Europe has stepped up funding, this is not sufficient for Ukraine to defeat Russian forces currently occupying about 20% of the country.

For Ukraine, the withdrawal of US support will severely strain their ability to keep fighting. Ukraine will likely need to find a way to freeze the conflict this year. This may mean a temporary truce that does not formally cede Ukrainian territory to Russia.

A Trumpian worldview

The vastly different approaches of the US under Trump and the EU point to a deeper ideological divide.

While the Trump administration has acted more quickly and assertively in foreign affairs than many expected, its approach is not surprising.

Since Trump won the US presidential election in November last year, Europe and Ukraine have known that a shift in US policy would be on the cards.

Trump’s approach to Ukraine is not only about economic concerns and withdrawing US military aid. It is about a deeper, more significant clash of worldviews.

Trump (and, it appears, his core support base) hold a “great power politics” approach to world affairs.

This approach assumes we live in a competitive world where countries are motivated to maximise gains and dominate. Outcomes can be achieved through punishments or rewards.

Countries with greater military or economic strength “count” more. They are expected to impose their will on weaker countries. This viewpoint underpinned much of the colonial activity of the 19th and 20th centuries.

This worldview expects conflict – and it expects stronger countries to “win”.

Consistent with Trump’s outlook, Russia is a regional power that has the “right” to control smaller countries in its neighbourhood.

Trump’s approach to Ukraine is not an anomaly. Nor is it a temporary and spontaneous measure to grab the global spotlight.

Trump’s worldview leads to the logical and consistent conclusion that Russia will seek to control countries within its sphere of influence.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine represented an attempt to impose its will on a militarily weaker country that it considered to be in its rightful domain of control.

The EU alternative

Contrary to this view, the EU is founded on the premise that countries can work together for mutual gains through collaboration and consensus. This approach underpins the operation of what are called the Bretton Woods Institutions created in the aftermath of World War II.

This worldview expects collaboration rather than conflict. Mutually beneficial and cooperative solutions are found through dialogue and negotiation.

According to this perspective, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is about a conflict between the values of a liberal democracy and those of an oppressive authoritarian regime.

Zelensky has himself consistently framed the conflict as being about a clash of values: freedom and democracy versus authoritarianism and control.

A mix of both?

Since Trump’s second inauguration, European leaders have presented a united front, motivated by facing a world where US military backing cannot be guaranteed.

However, there is internal division within European countries. Recent years has seen a sharp rise in anti-EU sentiment within EU member states. The UK’s exit from the EU is an example of this phenomenon.

EU leaders previously followed a path of cooperation with Russia, with limited success. Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, France and Germany helped mediate the Minsk Agreements. These agreements, signed in 2014 and 2015, were designed to prevent further incursions by Russian-backed groups into Ukrainian sovereign territory.

This did not prevent Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

In an emerging new world order, leadership might require going beyond the seeming contradiction of a focus on military strength or cooperation. Leaders may need to integrate both.

The Conversation

Jessica Genauer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. The EU will spend billions more on defence. It’s a powerful statement – but won’t do much for Ukraine – https://theconversation.com/the-eu-will-spend-billions-more-on-defence-its-a-powerful-statement-but-wont-do-much-for-ukraine-251710

‘Don’t be that idiot’: surfing in a cyclone could cost you $16,000 or your life

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amy Peden, NHMRC Research Fellow, School of Population Health & co-founder UNSW Beach Safety Research Group, UNSW Sydney

Social media is awash with images of surfers chasing waves as Cyclone Alfred whips up seas off Australia’s east coast.

Queensland Premier David Crisafulli has branded beachgoers as “idiots”. On Friday morning, he said those going to the beach as the cyclone approaches put themselves and emergency services at risk, adding:

I plead to the people who might think that now is a great time to go out on the surf – it’s not. It’s not just for you I’m concerned, but for the innocent person who has to go in after you.

Sightseers have been caught in storm surges, and rescuers have been forced into the surf to help others. Up and down the coast, beaches are closed.

In Queensland, surfers have been warned they may face fines up to $16,000 for reckless behaviour.

Despite all this, surfers and others continue to enter the water. It’s important to ask why – and what will it take to get them to stop?

Only a surfer knows the feeling

I research injury prevention with a focus on drowning and safety in the water. As cofounder of the UNSW Beach Safety Research Group, I have also led research into surfing.

Surfers frequently chase waves in big surf. Research by my colleagues and I shows under normal conditions, surfers have a lower risk of dying during this activity than people taking part in other water-related activities such as swimming, wading, snorkelling and scuba diving.

Although drowning is the leading cause of death while surfing, other severe injuries are relatively rare.

Of course, injuries can occur. These include cervical spine fractures and other spinal cord injuries, head injuries and lacerations. These can be due to collision with a surfboard, a fin, or the ocean floor.

Yet most surfers usually manage to avoid serious injury. Throw some mega waves into the mix, however, and things can turn deadly, fast.

Research shows the risk of injury is almost 2.5 times higher when surfing in waves that were over head height or bigger, relative to other waves.

Despite this, the lure of experiencing record-breaking waves can be hard to ignore.

Research shows surfers are motivated by what’s known as “sensation seeking”. In other words, they are more likely to seek out intense experiences than those who participate in other, less extreme sports.

The desire to “master nature” – or go into battle with a big wave and come out on top – has been documented in analyses of surfing motivation.

For big wave surfers, the reward – and the risk – can can be even greater. The physical and mental preparation needed to take on such extremes are immense. Tragically, deaths do occur even when attempts are made to improve safety.

This desire to take risks in the water contributes to the over-representation of males in drowning statistics.

Such risk-taking behaviour often plays out on social media in aquatic locations and during extreme weather events.

Other hazards, above and below the surface

Beyond the waves, other hazards can cause increased risk of ill health and injury in stormy seas. Debris can increase the risk of blunt-force trauma, while fecal and other bacteria in stormwater can cause illness.

Sea foam should not be considered harmless either, having been implicated in rescues and tragic cases of drowning in the past.

In the long term, coastal erosion due to storm surges and powerful surf can create permanent changes, impacting infrastructure and changing the location and strength of rip currents – the number-one coastal drowning hazard.




Read more:
Can you spot a rip current? Test your knowledge with our interactive quiz


Don’t be that idiot

Having a cyclone this far south is a rare event, so it’s only natural for people to want to take a look. But sometimes there’s no safe viewing distance, and the safest place to be is at home.

Unsafe behaviours in and around the surf are rife on social media. Mainstream media outlets often model unsafe behaviours too, with reporters delivering their “piece to camera” about the importance of staying away from the beach while themselves standing on the shore.

Conditions are unpredictable. These include powerful waves and storm surges that can knock you off your feet and sweep you out to sea.

Remember, emergency services are stretched right now. If you get into trouble in the surf, there may be no one to rescue you. Or untrained bystanders may come to your aid and get into trouble themselves.

With numerous flood warnings in place and roads closed, as well as the risks present on the coast, it’s best to stay away from beaches, rock platforms and coastal areas for now. Hit the waves again when conditions have calmed down.




Read more:
Just 15 centimetres of water can float a car – but we are failing to educate drivers about the dangers of floodwaters


The Conversation

Amy Peden receives funding from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, Surf Life Saving Australia and the NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service. She maintains an honorary (unpaid) affiliation with Royal Life Saving Society – Australia.

ref. ‘Don’t be that idiot’: surfing in a cyclone could cost you $16,000 or your life – https://theconversation.com/dont-be-that-idiot-surfing-in-a-cyclone-could-cost-you-16-000-or-your-life-251706

How cyclones rip apart houses – and how to boost the chance your home stays standing

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Henderson, Chief Engineer, Cyclone Testing Station, James Cook University

People in southeast Queensland and northern NSW have spent days racing to prepare their homes ahead of Tropical Cyclone Alfred, now expected to make landfall over several hours on Saturday.

It’s not possible to completely cyclone-proof a house. But there’s a lot you can do – in the short and long term – to boost the resilience of your home and reduce damage caused by future cyclones.

How winds affects pressure on and in the house

Strong winds generate pressure pushing and pulling on the outside and inside of a house.

When wind gusts hit a building, the wind is pushing on what we call the windward wall and going up and over the roof, creating a suction effect. The wind is trying very hard to peel the roof off your house, and in a cyclone is hammering the building for many hours.

How external winds exert pressure on a house.
How external winds exert pressure on a house.
© The State of Queensland (Queensland Reconstruction Authority) 2019, CC BY

If a windward window or door blows in or gets broken by debris, wind instantaneously enters the space. This almost doubles the load that the roof now has to resist.

In southeast Queensland and northern NSW, housing is not typically designed to resist that extra upward load on the roof if a door or window blows in.

Cyclone resilience is about maintaining the function of a building during severe weather, so even if there is some damage, it still can be used after the storm has passed. So it’s vital the roof stays on.

In practice, that means thinking about what’s known as the “tie down chain” – how all pieces of the house are held together to carry the wind loads from the roof to the ground.

A weak link in this tie down chain can lead to winds lifting entire roofs from homes. All the connections involved in keeping a roof on the house are exceptionally important.

Weather resistance in building codes is generally designed for rain that falls straight down and flows off the roof.

But in a cyclone, rain can come horizontally. It can get pushed under the the roof, into gutters and under sliding doors. And it’s not just a little bit – buckets and buckets of water can inundate a house.

Wind pressure can also mean water is blown into the house through gaps you may not even know existed. Wind-driven rain ingress can happen at wind speeds that don’t cause structural damage.

It comes in under doors and through windows, including holes in window sills. It can lead to buildings being unusable and a large number of insurance claims.

Dispelling major myths

You might have seen people taping a big “X” on their windows and glass doors. Unfortunately, this doesn’t really do much to improve window strength.

Some people put the tape on and then, during the cyclone, sit there watching their glass flex, falsely believing tape magically makes the window stronger. This is incredibly dangerous. If that glass shatters, the bystander would be hit by shards of glass travelling at high speed.

It is much better to tape a garbage bag or a sheet of plastic along the bottom of the window sill and tape it up about 300mm each side. It can then catch the water that seeps in the window and allows it to flow back out when the wind pressure drops.

Sometimes people open a window to reduce pressure inside the house that happens if a door or window breaks. It’s true this might reduce some pressure, but it depends which side of the house is currently being hit by wind. And given wind direction can change during a cyclone, emergency services recommend it’s better just to stay sheltered in the smallest room; they don’t want you standing in front of a window during a cyclone.

Close all internal doors so if any windows do blow in, the high pressure is restricted to just that room (not spread throughout the house).

Designing beyond the bare minimum

Building codes require buildings to build to a “wind classification” according to the “wind zone” of that area.

Buildings are often built only to the minimum standard of the Building Code. However, if we want a house to function after an extreme tropical cyclone, we should consider building beyond the minimum standard using resilience features that will keep your roof on in a cyclone and minimise the entry of rainwater.

Cyclone resilience also includes incorporating resilient building materials in your home – such as linoleum or vinyl floors instead of carpet, and ceilings from fibre-cement sheeting instead of plasterboard.

Resilient building options
Resilient building options you could consider.
© The State of Queensland (Queensland Reconstruction Authority), CC BY

Eternal vigilance

It’s also important all elements holding your house together are well maintained through the life of the building.

That means ensuring regular inspections by a trained professional to identify any potential weaknesses such as rot, rust or UV damage.

These inspections are not something you and a mate can do yourselves. It requires a building professionals to get into the roof and look for weak spots.

Think beyond your house. What about the carport? A pergola? That shed or patio you added? Are the solar panels installed correctly with the right fixings and brackets to resist the wind forces?

If all these things are not fixed down and maintained well, strong winds can pick them up and throw them at your house or your neighbours.

Just as you get your car serviced, you should get your house checked every five to seven years. Our homes have many important parts and a failure in one can lead to disastrous and expensive problems.

The Conversation

David Henderson serves on committees for Standards Australia. He is a member of Engineers Australia and has done consulting work with the Resilient Building Council.

Geoffrey Boughton serves on committees for Standards Australia. He is a member of Engineers Australia and has done consulting work with the Resilient Building Council.

ref. How cyclones rip apart houses – and how to boost the chance your home stays standing – https://theconversation.com/how-cyclones-rip-apart-houses-and-how-to-boost-the-chance-your-home-stays-standing-251709

Cyclone Alfred is already retraumatising people who’ve lived through other disasters. I’m one of them

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Erin Smith, Associate Professor and Discipline Lead (Paramedicine), La Trobe University

In 2011, as Cyclone Yasi approached the Queensland coast, I sat in my home in the tropical far north of the state and worried what the future would hold. Would my family be OK? Would our home be destroyed? Would my workplace be damaged and my job uncertain? Would my community be devastated?

Now, as we wait for Cyclone Alfred to make landfall, I am watching on from my new home in Melbourne. I am safe. But last night, I couldn’t sleep. I’m having intrusive thoughts, remembering what it was like when Cyclone Yasi barrelled into us. I feel agitated, distracted and anxious. The news coverage of the impending cyclone makes my heart race, so I have turned off the television.

As someone who has researched the impact of disasters for more than 20 years, I recognise what I am feeling now is similar to how I felt all those years ago. Again, I am experiencing the normal range of stress reactions common after living through a disaster, even though I am not directly impacted by this one.

This is known as retraumatisation, where we re-live stress reactions experienced as a result of a traumatic event when faced with a new, similar incident.

As a researcher in emergency responses to a broad range of disasters, I understand why I am feeling like this.

However, many people may not realise the stress they are experiencing right now is related to an earlier disaster or traumatic event in their life. That earlier disaster could be another cyclone, or a different event, such as a flood or bushfire.

Some signs and symptoms of retraumatisation might be:

  • intrusive thoughts (for example, I keep remembering my fear of the predicted tidal surge of water rushing up at me in the darkness as Cyclone Yasi made landfall)

  • nightmares and having trouble sleeping

  • hypervigilance (for example, feeling “on edge” all day)

  • sensitivity to triggers (for example, the sound of intense wind and windows creaking can trigger intense feelings because they remind me of the night we lived through Cyclone Yasi passing over the top of us)

  • feeling isolated

  • thinking about, planning or attempting suicide

  • panic atacks

  • using/abusing substances, such as alcohol and other drugs

  • increase in unhealthy behaviours (for example, being more prone to aggression or violence).

For many of us, Cyclone Alfred is awakening memories and feelings, and the re-emergence of those stress reactions can be confronting. It can feel like re-opening a wound that hasn’t quite healed.

Disaster upon disaster take their toll

We are now beginning to understand the effects of being exposed to multiple disasters – bushfires, cyclones, floods, and let’s not forget the COVID pandemic – that erode our resilience.

This type of multiple exposure influences our feelings of safety, security and even our hope for the future, all increasing the risk of poorer mental health.

For people with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), retraumatisation may cause people to relive their past traumas in intense detail. It can feel like past traumatic events are happening all over again.

What to do now, and in the future

However, there are steps we can take to help build our resilience in the face of multiple disasters.

For now

Right now, it is useful to understand how we respond to trauma. We may notice a range of physical responses (for example, my heart has been racing), psychological reactions (for example, I am feeling more anxious than usual) and social impacts (for example, I cancelled dinner plans last night as I did not want to leave the house).

It is also important to stay connected to our usual social supports, as they can act as a great buffer to stress reactions.

So, even though I stayed home last night, I was on a group chat discussing the Real Housewives of Sydney with friends, which helped reduce both the physical and psychological stress reactions I was experiencing.

Old man chatting over the fence to neighbour
Staying connected to friends, family, neighbours and other supports will help.
Caftor/Shutterstock

For later

In the longer term, it is useful to develop and implement a self-care plan that includes activities to support our emotional, physical and spiritual health.

Self-care means taking the time to do things that help your wellbeing and improve your physical health and mental health. This can help you manage the stress reactions that may emerge as part of retraumatisation. Even small acts of self-care in your daily life can have a big impact.

Today, I made the time to go for a short walk in the park and listened to some of my favourite music. It helped in the moment, but it also helps me in the longer term when I routinely include these small acts of self-care in my daily life.

We also need to consider the first responders and volunteers who will be preparing for Cyclone Alfred, and communities devastated by similar disasters in the past (for example, the 2022 floods in Lismore, New South Wales). With their exposure to cumulative trauma, these groups will need ongoing, focused support.

Most importantly, we need to understand that the way we are feeling is normal. Be patient with yourself and look for small opportunities to take control of your reactions.

I am keeping the television turned off (except when the Real Housewives is on).

Some resources

The website blueknot, from the National Centre of Excellence for Complex Trauma, gives more information about how we respond to trauma. The Black Dog Institute guides you through developing a self-care plan.

If you are a first responder, you can access free treatment and support through a range of providers, including: Phoenix Australia, Fortem Australia and the Black Dog Institute.


If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.

The Conversation

Erin Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Cyclone Alfred is already retraumatising people who’ve lived through other disasters. I’m one of them – https://theconversation.com/cyclone-alfred-is-already-retraumatising-people-whove-lived-through-other-disasters-im-one-of-them-251701

‘Icarus of the deep’: how a dying anglerfish became a social media sensation

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Prema Arasu, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Minderoo-UWA Deep-Sea Research Centre, The University of Western Australia

David Jara Boguñá / Instagram

In February, researchers from conservation organisation Condrik Tenerife were about two kilometres off the coast of Tenerife Island, looking for sharks, when they caught sight of something much stranger.

Photographer David Jara Boguñá filmed a humpback anglerfish (Melanocetus johnsonii, a species of black seadevil) swimming near the surface in sunlit waters. These fish have never before been seen alive in daylight, as they normally dwell in the “twilight zone” at depths from 200m to 600m.

The video has provoked an enormously empathetic response on social media, with some seeing the fish as a feminist icon or an Icarus-like figure who swam too close to the Sun. The reaction shows our views of the deep sea – long ignored or seen as a realm of monsters – may at last be changing.

The strange lives of anglerfish

Anglerfish are much smaller than you probably think they are. The specimen Boguñá filmed was a female, which typically grow up to 15cm long.

The creatures are named for their bioluminescent lure (or esca). This modified dorsal fin ray can produce a glow used to fish (or angle) for prey in the dim depths of the sea. The bioluminescence is produced by symbiotic bacteria that live inside the bulbous head of the esca.

Male anglerfish lack the iconic lure and are much smaller, usually reaching a length of only 3cm.

A male anglerfish spends the first part of his life searching for a female to whom he will then attach himself. He will eventually fuse his circulatory system with hers, depending on her entirely for nutrients, and live out his life as a parasite or “living testicle”.

It is unknown why this fish was swimming vertically near the surface. Researchers have speculated that the behaviour may have been related to changes in water temperature, or that the fish was simply at the end of her life.

Watchers observed the fish for several hours, until it died. Its body was preserved and taken to the Museum of Nature and Archaeology in Santa Cruz de Tenerife, where it will be further studied.

Sympathy for the seadevil

The video quickly went viral, inspiring countless reaction videos, artworks, memes, a Pixar-style animation and a poem titled Icarus is the Anglerfish.

One Reddit user commented:

I like to think she is a respected old grandmother who has dreamed her entire life of seeing the sunlight and the world above the water. She knows her time is nigh so she bade farewell to her friends and family and swam up towards the light and whatever it might hold for her as her life as an anglerfish comes to a close.

One person described the fish as her “feminist Roman Empire”, in the sense of an inspirational obsession that filled the same role for her that the Roman Empire supposedly does for many men.

Boguñá and Condrik Tenerife have since commented on the public reaction. (The original post is in Spanish, but Instagram’s automated English translation is below.)

He’s become a global icon, that’s clear. But far from the romanticisation and attempt to humanise that has been given to its tragic story, I think that what this event has been for is to awaken the curiosity of the sea to PEOPLE, especially the younger ones, and perhaps, it also serves that messages about marine ecosystem conservation can reach so many more people.

From horrors to heroes

The outpouring of empathy for the anglerfish is unexpected. With their glowing lures and fang-filled mouths, the creatures have long been archetypal horrors of the abyss.

As I have written elsewhere, the anglerfish’s extreme sexual dimorphism and parasitism, along with its unsettling anatomy, have made it the “iconic ambassador of the deep sea”. Anglerfish or angler-inspired aliens have appeared as antagonists in films such as Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace (1999), Finding Nemo (2003), The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie (2004) and Luca (2021).

Movie still showing a submersible chased by an enormous anglerfish-like monster.
Star Wars film The Phantom Menace features a large anglerfish-inspired sea monster.
Disney

The reception of “Icarus” (as some call her) in popular culture indicates a perhaps surprising capacity for empathy toward animals that aren’t conventionally cute or beautiful. It stands in stark contrast to the fate of the deep-sea blobfish Psychrolutes marcidus, which in 2013 was voted the world’s ugliest animal.

Perhaps the name is a clue: people have seen in the fish a creature striving to reach the light, who died as a result of her quest.

But does our projection of human emotions and desires onto non-human animals risk misunderstanding scientific reality? Almost certainly – but, as US environmental humanities researcher Stacy Alaimo has argued, it may also have benefits:

Deep-sea creatures are often pictured as aliens from another planet, and I think that gets people interested in them because we’re all interested in novelty and weirdness and the surreal […] I think that can be positive, but the idea of the alien can also cut us off from any responsibility.

The deep sea and its inhabitants face growing threats from seabed mining, plastic pollution, and the effects of human-induced climate change. They need all the empathy they can get.

The Conversation

Prema Arasu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. ‘Icarus of the deep’: how a dying anglerfish became a social media sensation – https://theconversation.com/icarus-of-the-deep-how-a-dying-anglerfish-became-a-social-media-sensation-251603

Diversity helps: a new study shows more women on boards can improve how businesses are managed

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ramona Zharfpeykan, Lecturer, Department of Accounting and Finance, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

Jacob Lund/Shutterstock

Despite large multinational companies such as Goldman Sachs, Paramount, Google and others removing their diversity, equity and inclusion policies, the evidence is clear: having a diverse team can help businesses make better, more empathetic decisions.

At the top level, a growing body of research shows having more women on corporate boards leads to better decision-making, stronger governance and improved environmental, social and governance (ESG) performance.

Yet, progress remains slow – even in New Zealand. Though we rank highly on the Human Development Index, the country lags behind in leadership gender equality.

Women make up 50.8% of the population and hold 40.8% of parliamentary leadership roles. But they hold only 28.5% of board seats and 26.4% of executive roles in the New Zealand’s Stock Exchange (NZX) top 50 companies (the NZX50).

And while businesses are encouraged to disclose gender diversity policies by the NZX, there are no mandatory quotas, leaving progress uneven.

However, change is happening. Our new research looked at the the percentage of female directors in NZX-listed firms between 2016 and 2022.

What we found is positive. Using information from financial infrastructure and data provider LSEG’s database on global financial markets, we identified a rise in the number of female directors on corporate boards. We also saw a corresponding improvement in the firms’ ESG performance.

Photo of NZX photo with mobile listing of the NZX website in front of it.
Despite making up 50.4% of the population, women hold only 28.5% of board seats and 26.4% of executive roles in NZX50 companies.
T. Schneider/Shutterstock

Boosting performance

Between 2016 and 2022, the proportion of female directors in NZX-listed firms increased from 26% to 36%. These same businesses saw an average 33% improvement in their ESG performance.

Notably, governance – one of the key ESG pillars – improved significantly, with a 31% increase on average. Governance specifically refers to the effectiveness of the firm’s management systems, board structure and capacity to protect shareholder interests.

While it’s not possible to say outright that having more women on the board directly influenced governance outcomes, we saw a positive relationship between the two. This suggests having more women in leadership strengthens corporate oversight and ethical decision making.

Gender diversity does not have the same level of importance in all contexts. While social and environmental performance also improved, this study found no significant link between a more gender-diverse board and these higher scores in social and environmental performance.

Our findings are supported by overseas research suggesting board diversity does not strongly influence sustainability outcomes when it comes to issues and groups already covered by legislation.

Therefore, New Zealand’s proactive stance on issues such as the environment, poverty and human rights, as well as encouraging private companies to improve sustainability and transparency, may explain why board diversity had no notable impact on social and environmental performance in this study.

What women bring to the business

Our findings align with studies completed overseas.

In the US, one study found women business leaders tended to prioritise transparency, fairness and stakeholder interests. This made them strong advocates for sustainable and inclusive business practices.

It’s clear that addressing the gender gap in corporate New Zealand isn’t just about fairness. It’s about economic success. Businesses that embrace diversity perform better, attract top talent and enhance their reputations.

The solution isn’t simply about enforcing quotas, but ensuring more qualified women are placed in leadership roles. Companies need to move beyond a “compliance mindset” and recognise true diversity strengthens governance, reduces risk and drives long-term success.

As the world celebrates International Women’s Day on March 8, businesses need to realise that increasing female representation at the top isn’t just the right thing to do – it’s the smart thing to do.

The Conversation

Ramona Zharfpeykan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Diversity helps: a new study shows more women on boards can improve how businesses are managed – https://theconversation.com/diversity-helps-a-new-study-shows-more-women-on-boards-can-improve-how-businesses-are-managed-251473

Jonathan Cook: Yes, Trump is vulgar. But the US global shakedown is the same one as ever

Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific.

ANALYSIS: By Jonathan Cook

If there is one thing we can thank US President Donald Trump for, it is this: he has decisively stripped away the ridiculous notion, long cultivated by Western media, that the United States is a benign global policeman enforcing a “rules-based order”.

Washington is better understood as the head of a gangster empire, embracing 800 military bases around the world. Since the end of the Cold War, it has been aggressively seeking “global full-spectrum domination”, as the Pentagon doctrine politely terms it.

You either pay fealty to the Don or you get dumped in the river. Last Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was presented with a pair of designer concrete boots at the White House.

The US president looked like a gangster as he roughed up Zelensky. But he wasn’t the one who stoked a war that’s killed huge numbers of Ukrainians and Russians. Image: www.jonathan-cook.net

The innovation was that it all happened in front of the Western press corps, in the Oval Office, rather than in a back room, out of sight. It made for great television, Trump crowed.

Pundits have been quick to reassure us that the shouting match was some kind of weird Trumpian thing. As though being inhospitable to state leaders, and disrespectful to the countries they head, is unique to this administration.

Take just the example of Iraq. The administration of Bill Clinton thought it “worth it” – as his secretary of state, Madeleine Albright, infamously put it — to kill an estimated half a million Iraqi children by imposing draconian sanctions through the 1990s.

Under Clinton’s successor, George W Bush, the US then waged an illegal war in 2003, on entirely phoney grounds, that killed around half a million Iraqis, according to post-war estimates, and made four million homeless.

Those worrying about the White House publicly humiliating Zelensky might be better advised to save their concern for the hundreds of thousands of mostly Ukrainian and Russian men killed or wounded fighting an entirely unnecessary war — one, as we shall see, Washington carefully engineered through Nato over the preceding two decades.

Henchman Zelensky
All those casualties served the same goal as they did in Iraq: to remind the world who is boss.

Uniquely, Western publics don’t understand this simple point because they live inside a disinformation bubble, created for them by the Western establishment media.

Henry Kissinger, the long-time steward of US foreign policy, famously said: “It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.”

Zelensky just found that out the hard way. Gangster empires are just as fickle as the gangsters we know from Hollywood movies. Under the previous Joe Biden administration, Zelensky had been recruited as a henchman to do Washington’s bidding on Moscow’s doorstep.

The background — the one Western media have kept largely out of view — is that, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US tore up treaties crucial to reassuring Russia of Nato’s good intent.

Viewed from Moscow, and given Washington’s track record, Nato’s European security umbrella must have looked more like preparation for an ambush.

Keen though Trump now is to rewrite history and cast himself as peacemaker, he was central to the escalating tensions that led to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

In 2019, he unilaterally withdrew from the 1987 Treaty on Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces. That opened the door to the US launching a potential first strike on Russia, using missiles stationed in nearby Nato members Romania and Poland.

He also sent Javelin anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, a move avoided by his predecessor, Barack Obama, for fear it would be seen as provocative.

Repeatedly, Nato vowed to bring Ukraine into its fold, despite Russia’s warnings that the step was viewed as an existential threat, that Moscow could not allow Washington to place missiles on its border, any more than the US accepted Soviet missiles stationed in Cuba back in the early 1960s.

Washington pressed ahead anyway, even assisting in a colour revolution-style coup in 2014 against the elected government in Kyiv, whose crime was being a little too sympathetic to Moscow.

With the country in crisis, Zelensky was himself elected by Ukrainians as a peace candidate, there to end a brutal civil war — sparked by that coup — between anti-Russian, “nationalistic” forces in the country’s west and ethnic Russian populations in the east. The Ukrainian President soon broke that promise.

Trump has accused Zelensky of being a “dictator”. But if he is, it is only because Washington wanted him that way, ignoring the wishes of the majority of Ukrainians.

Reddest of red lines
Zelensky’s job was to play a game of chicken with Moscow. The assumption was that the US would win whatever the outcome.

Either Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bluff would be called. Ukraine would be welcomed into Nato, becoming the most forward of the alliance’s forward bases against Russia, allowing nuclear-armed ballistic missiles to be stationed minutes from Moscow.

Or Putin would finally make good on his years of threats to invade his neighbour to stop Nato crossing the reddest of red lines he had set over Ukraine.

Washington could then cry “self-defence” on Ukraine’s behalf, and ludicrously fearmonger Western publics about Putin eyeing Poland, Germany, France and Britain next.

Those were the pretexts for arming Kyiv to the hilt, rather than seeking a rapid peace deal. And so began a proxy war of attrition against Russia, using Ukrainian men as cannon fodder.

The aim was to wear Russia down militarily and economically, and bring about Putin’s overthrow.

Zelensky did precisely what was demanded of him. When he appeared to waver early on, and considered signing a peace deal with Moscow, Britain’s prime minister of the time, Boris Johnson, was dispatched with a message from Washington: keep fighting.

That is the same Boris Johnson who now breezily admits that the West is fighting a “proxy war” against Russia.

His comments have generated precisely no controversy. That is particularly strange, given that critics who pointed this very obvious fact out three years ago were instantly denounced for spreading “Putin disinformation” and Kremlin “talking points”.

For his obedience, Zelensky was feted a hero, the defender of Europe against Russian imperialism. His every “demand” — demands that originated in Washington — was met.

Ukraine has received at least $250 billion worth of guns, tanks, fighter jets, training for his troops, Western intelligence on Russia, and other forms of aid.

Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian men have paid with their lives — as have the families they leave behind.

Mafia etiquette
Now the old Don in Washington is gone. The new Don has decided Zelensky has been an expensive failure. Russia isn’t lethally wounded. It’s stronger than ever. Time for a new strategy.

Zelensky, still imagining he was Washington’s favourite henchman, arrived at the Oval Office only to be taught a harsh lesson in mafia etiquette.

Trump is spinning his stab in the back as a “peace agreement”. And in some sense, it is. Rightly, Trump has concluded that Russia has won — unless the West is ready to fight World War III and risk a potential nuclear war.

Trump has faced up to the reality of the situation, even if Zelensky and Europe are still struggling to.


Trump’s overt ‘genocidal’ warning over Gaza.   Video: TRT World News

But his plan for Ukraine is actually just a variation of his other peace plan — the one for Gaza. There he wants to ethnically cleanse the Palestinian population and, on the bodies of the enclave’s many thousands of dead children, build the “Riviera of the Middle East” — or “Trump Gaza” as it is being called in a surreal video he shared on social media.

Similarly, Trump now sees Ukraine not as a military battlefield but as an economic one where, through clever deal-making, he can leverage riches for himself and his billionaire pals.

He has put a gun to Zelensky and Europe’s head. Make a deal with Russia to end the war, or you are on your own against a far superior military power. See if the Europeans can help you without a supply of Washington’s weapons.

Not surprisingly, Zelensky, Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron huddled together at the weekend to find a deal that would appease Trump. All Starmer has revealed so far is that the plan will “stop the fighting”.

That is a good thing. But the fighting could have been stopped, and should have been stopped, three years ago.

Money, not peace
It is deeply unwise to be lulled into tribalism by all this — the very tribalism Western elites seek to cultivate among their publics to keep us treating international affairs no differently from a high-stakes football match.

No one here has behaved, or is behaving, honourably.

A ceasefire in Ukraine is not about peace. It’s about money, just as the earlier war was. As all wars are, ultimately.

An acceptable ceasefire for Trump, as well as for Putin, will involve a carve-up of Ukraine’s goodies. Rare earth minerals, land, agricultural production will be the real currency driving the agreement.

Zelensky now understands this. He knows that he, and the people of Ukraine, have been scammed. That is what tends to happen when you cosy up to the mafia.

If anyone doubts Washington’s insincerity over Ukraine, look to Palestine for clarity.

In his earlier presidency, Trump tried to bring about what he termed the peace “deal of the century” whose centrepiece was the annexation of much of the Occupied West Bank.

The hope was that the Gulf states would ultimately fund an incentivisation programme — the carrot to Israel’s stick — to encourage Palestinians to make a new life in a giant, purpose-built industrial zone in Sinai, next to Gaza.

That plan is still simmering away in the background. At the weekend, Israel received a green light from Washington to revive its genocidal starvation of Gaza’s population, after Israel refused to negotiate the second phase of the original ceasefire agreement.

The Trump administration and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are now spinning their own bad faith as Hamas “rejectionism”.

They and the echo chamber that is the Western media are blaming the Palestinian group for refusing to be gulled into an “extension” of what was never more than a phoney ceasefire — Israel’s fire never ceased. Israel wants all the hostages back, without having to leave Gaza, so that Hamas has no leverage to stop Israel reviving the full genocide.

The people of Gaza are still being fed into the Washington mafia’s meatgrinder, just as the Ukrainian people have been.

Trump wants them out of the way so he can develop a Mediterranean playground for the rich, paid for with Gulf oil money and the so-far untapped natural gas reserves just off Gaza’s coast.

Unlike his predecessors, Trump doesn’t pretend that Ukraine and Gaza are anything more than geostrategic real estate for Washington.

The big shakedown
Zelensky’s shakedown did not come out of the blue. Trump and his officials had been flagging it well in advance.

Two weeks ago, the industrial correspondent for Britain’s Daily Telegraph wrote an article headlined “Here’s why Trump wants to make Ukraine a US economic colony”.

Trump’s team believes that Ukraine may have rare-earth minerals under the ground worth some $15 trillion — a treasure trove that will be critical to the development of the next generation of technology.

In their view, controlling the exploration and extraction of those minerals will be as important as control over the Middle East’s oil reserves was more than a century ago.

And most important of all, the US wants China, its chief economic — if not military — rival excluded from the plunder. China currently has an effective monopoly on many of these critical minerals.

Or as the Telegraph puts it, Ukraine’s “minerals offer a tantalising promise: the ability for the US to break its dependence on Chinese supplies of critical minerals that go into everything from wind turbines to iPhones and stealth fighter jets”.

A draft of the plan seen by the Telegraph would, in its words, “amount to the US economic colonisation of Ukraine, in legal perpetuity”.

Washington wants first refusal on all deposits within the country.

At their Oval Office confrontation, Trump reiterated this goal: “So we’re going to be using that [Ukraine’s rare earth minerals], taking it, using it for all of the things we do, including AI, and including weapons, and the military. And it’s really going to very much satisfy our needs.”

All of this means that Trump has a keen incentive to get the war finished as quickly as possible, and Russia’s territorial advance halted. The more territory Moscow seizes, the less territory is left for the US to plunder.

Self-sabotage
The battle against China over rare-earth minerals isn’t a Trump innovation either — and adds an additional layer of context for why Washington and Nato have been so keen over the past two decades to prise Ukraine away from Russia.

Last summer, a Congressional select committee on competition with China announced the formation of a working group to counter Beijing’s “dominance of critical minerals”.

The chairman of the committee, John Moolenaar, noted that the current US dependence on China for these minerals “would quickly become an existential vulnerability in the event of a conflict”.

Another committee member, Rob Wittman, observed: “Dominance over global supply chains for critical mineral and rare earth elements is the next stage of great power competition.”

What Trump appears to appreciate is that Nato’s proxy war against Russia in Ukraine has, by default, driven Moscow deeper into Beijing’s embrace. It has been self-sabotage on a grand scale.

Together, China and Russia are a formidable opponent, and one at the centre of the ever-growing Brics group — comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. They have been seeking to expand their alliance by adding emerging powers to become a counterweight to Washington and Nato’s bullying global agenda.

But a deal with Putin over Ukraine would provide an opportunity for Washington to build a new security architecture in Europe — one more useful to the US — that places Russia inside the tent rather than outside it.

That would leave China isolated — a long-time Pentagon goal.

And it would also leave Europe less central to the projection of US power, which is why European leaders — led by Keir Starmer — have been looking and sounding so unnerved over the past few weeks.

The danger is that Trump’s “peacemaking” in Ukraine simply becomes a prelude to the fomenting of a war against China, using Taiwan as the pretext in the same way Ukraine was used against Russia.

As Moolenaar implied, US control over critical minerals — in Ukraine and elsewhere — would ensure the US was no longer vulnerable in the event of a war with China to losing access to the minerals it would need to continue the war. It would free Washington’s hand.

Trump may be behaving in a vulgar manner. But the gangster empire he now heads is conducting the same global shakedown as ever.

Jonathan Cook is an award-winning British journalist. He was based in Nazareth, Israel, for 20 years and returned to the UK in 2021. He is the author of three books on the Israel-Palestine conflict, including Disappearing Palestine: Israel’s Experiments in Human Despair (2008). In 2011, Cook was awarded the Martha Gellhorn Special Prize for Journalism for his work on Palestine and Israel. This article was first published in Middle East Eye and is republished with the author’s permission.

This article was first published on Café Pacific.

A late start, then a big boom: why it took until 1975 for Australians to finally watch TV in colour

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Gaunson, Associate Professor in Cinema Studies, RMIT University

Youtube/Austvarchive

Some 50 years ago, on March 1 1975, Australian television stations officially moved to colour.

Networks celebrated the day, known as “C-Day”, with unique slogans such as “come to colour” (ABC TV), “Seven colours your world” (Seven Network), “living colour” (Nine Network) and “first in colour” (0-10 Network, which later became Network Ten). The ABC, Seven and Nine networks also updated their logos to incorporate colour.

For most viewers, however, nothing looked much different. The majority owned a black and white TV, while a coloured broadcast required a colour TV set.

Advertisers were initially reluctant to accept the change, which required them to re-shoot black and white commercials with colour stock at a significantly higher cost.

Many reasoned viewers were still watching the ads in black and white. And initially this assumption was correct. But by nine months later, 17% of Australian homes had a colour receiver. This rose to 31% by July 1976.

By 1978, 64% of Melbourne and 70% of Sydney households owned colour TV sets, making Australia one of the world’s fastest adopters of colour TV.

According to the Federation of Australian Commercial Television Stations (FACTS) annual report for 1975–76, colour TV increased overall viewership by 5%, with people watching for longer periods.

The 1976 Montreal Olympics also led to an increase in TV sales, with the colour broadcast shared between the ABC, Seven and Nine.

Highlights from the Montreal 1976 Olympic Games marathon event.

A late start

With the United States introducing colour TV from 1954, it’s peculiar that Australia took so long to make the transition – especially since conversations about this had been underway since the 1960s.

In 1965, a report outlining the process and economic considerations of transitioning to colour was tabled in parliament.

Feedback from the US highlighted problems around broader acceptance in the marketplace. Colour TV sets were expensive and most programs were still being shot in black and white, despite the availability of colour.

Networks were the most hesitant (even though they’d go on to become one of the most major benefactors). In 1969, it was estimated transitioning to colour would cost the ABC A$46 million (the equivalent of $265,709,944 today) over six years.

The federal government, led by then prime minister Robert Menzies, decided to take a cautious approach to the transition – allowing manufacturers, broadcasters and the public time to prepare.

The first colour “test” broadcast took place on June 15 1967, with live coverage of a Pakenham country horse racing event in Victoria (although few people would have had coloured TV sets at this point).

Other TV shows also tested broadcasting in colour between 1972 and 1974, with limited colour telecasts aired from mid-1974. It wasn’t until March 1975 that colour TV was being transmitted permanently.

‘Aunty Jack Introduces Colour’ was a one-off television special of The Aunty Jack Show, broadcast on the ABC on February 28 1975.

The cinema industry panics

Australia’s involvement in the Vietnam War created further urgency to televise in colour. With the war ending in April 1975, Australians watched the last moments in colour.

Other significant events broadcast in colour that year included the December federal election, in which Malcolm Fraser defeated Gough Whitlam after the latter was dramatically dismissed as prime minister on November 11.

With the public’s growing interest in colour TV, local manufacturers began lobbying for higher tariffs on imports to encourage domestic colour TV production.

In the mid 1970s, a new colour set in Australia cost between $1,000 and $1,300, while the average full-time annual income was around $8,000. Still in the throes of a financial recession, customers began seeking out illegally-imported colour TV sets – which were appearing at car boot markets across the country.

British childrens show The Wombles came to Australian screens shortly after colour TV was introduced.

The government also created an advertising campaign warning the public of scammers who would offer to convert black-and-white TVs to colour. These door-to-door “salesmen” claimed to have a special screen which, when placed over a TV, would magically turn it colourful.

By 1972, the estimated cost of upgrading broadcasting technology to colour had reached $116 million. The cinema industry, in a panic, even questioned whether colour TV could damage a viewer’s eyesight.

The industry had previously suffered huge losses in cinema attendance with the introduction of black-and-white TV from 1956. Cinemas had a monopoly on colour and were petrified over what the introduction of colour to television could do to their attendances.

Such fears were founded. In 1974 Australia had 68 million admissions to the cinema. By 1976, there were just 28.9 million admissions. Never again would yearly cinema admissions reach above 40 million.

But despite the complaints – from the cinema industry, advertisers, broadcasters and manufacturers – audiences were ready for colour. And any network that dared to program in black and white would subject itself to a barrage of annoyed viewers.

Colour TV was here to stay.

The Conversation

Stephen Gaunson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. A late start, then a big boom: why it took until 1975 for Australians to finally watch TV in colour – https://theconversation.com/a-late-start-then-a-big-boom-why-it-took-until-1975-for-australians-to-finally-watch-tv-in-colour-251363

More than two-thirds of organisations have a formal work-from-home policy. Here’s how the benefits stack up

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christina Boedker, Professor, Business School, University of Newcastle

Floral Deco/Shutterstock

The opposition wants to call time on letting public servants work from home. In a speech to the Menzies Research Institute this week, shadow public service minister Jane Hume said, if elected, a Coalition government would require public servants in the office five days a week:

While work from home arrangements can work, in the case of the [Australian Public Service], it has become a right that is creating inefficiency.

Hume said Labor had given public servants a “blank cheque” to work from home, creating an “unsustainable” system that was no longer working.

She stressed that exceptions “can and will be made”, but only “where they work for everyone rather than be enforced on teams by an individual”.

Few workplace issues have drawn such heated debate as whether people should be allowed to work from home. The Coalition’s latest election promise, with parallels to a similar move by Donald Trump in the United States, has brought these questions back into the spotlight.

What impact do work from home arrangements have, not only on performance and productivity but also employee wellbeing? Is it really wise to reverse course?

Our research has examined these questions in detail – and we’ve found a changing picture.




Read more:
Dutton hints he’ll sack 36,000 public servants. Voters deserve to know what services will be affected


Our research

We have examined the impacts of working from home on staff performance and productivity in Australian workplaces as part of the Australian Workplace Index, surveying 2,932 Australian employees across 2022 and 2024.

This is a research collaboration project between Australian National University and University of Newcastle.

Two businessmen talking with a laptop
The Coalition argues public servants should return to the office.
Ground Picture/Shutterstock

An Australian Workplace Index 2022 working paper (which has not been peer-reviewed) actually suggested working from home was linked with a number of negative impacts.

In 2022, we saw that compared to those who didn’t, employees who worked from home three to four days a week experienced lower wellbeing, higher depression and anxiety, and higher loneliness.

They also experienced more administrative hassles, higher pressure to meet targets and increased levels of conflict with supervisors and colleagues.

We found working from home was also associated with a reduction in staff productivity, job-target performance and an increase in staff turnover intentions.

A changing picture

We have recently completed analysis for a similar study based on data from 2024, to be published in an upcoming working paper. And it paints a very different picture.

We found the negative impacts of working from home, originally found in 2022, had reversed in 2024.

In the most recent 2024 Australian Workplace Index employment data, we see no significant difference in productivity between employees who work from home and those in the office.

In fact, the latest data suggest numerous benefits.

For example, staff who worked from home one or more days a week had 9.9% more autonomy in how they carried out their work. Those with higher job autonomy were up to 16.8% more productive in their work when compared to those with low job autonomy.

We found staff who work from home also save on average 100 minutes in commuting time each day.

But on top of this, staff who worked from home one or more days a week were 10.6% less burnt out from work compared to those who never did, and had reported lower intention to quit their jobs.

commuters walk near a tram in Melbourne
A reduced need to commute is a major benefit of work-from-home arrangements.
Adam Calaitzis/Shutterstock

Better support for employees

This positive trend likely reflects investment by employers in improving support for staff who work from home.

In 2024, we found a majority of organisations (69%) now had a work-from-home policy in place.

There was also an increase in the physical, technological and psychological infrastructure support available to staff who work from home. For example:

  • Physical: 82% of staff have a dedicated workspace, 93% have their own desk, and 93% have air conditioning.
  • Technological: 85% of staff have access to IT support, 94% have access to collaborative technology and 95% have internet access.
  • Psychological: 80% of staff have access to psychological support from their supervisor and 72% have access to counselling services.

Importantly, employees still value the opportunity highly. Our 2024 data show 38% of Australian employees chose to work from home for 50% or more of their work hours.

32% of Australian employees would prefer to exclusively work from home, 41% prefer a hybrid option, while 27% prefer to work exclusively from the office.

The Conversation

Christina Boedker has received research grant funding from the University of Newcastle’s RSP Stimulus Funding Scheme and from The Australian National University for this research project.

Kieron Meagher received research grant funding from the University of Newcastle’s RSP Stimulus Funding Scheme and from The Australian National University for this research project.

Aeson Luiz Dela Cruz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. More than two-thirds of organisations have a formal work-from-home policy. Here’s how the benefits stack up – https://theconversation.com/more-than-two-thirds-of-organisations-have-a-formal-work-from-home-policy-heres-how-the-benefits-stack-up-251598

‘No-one wants to go through this again’: how disaster-stricken residents in northern NSW are preparing for Cyclone Alfred

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rebecca McNaught, Research Fellow, University of Sydney

It’s been three years since floods pummelled the Northern Rivers region of New South Wales. Now, Cyclone Alfred is heading for the region, threatening devastation once more.

On Thursday night and Friday morning, the NSW State Emergency Service asked residents in parts of the Northern Rivers to evacuate. Rain associated with Cyclone Alfred was expected to cause rapid river rises and extensive flooding.

As you’d expect, many Northern Rivers residents feel very apprehensive right now. No-one wants to go through this again.

I know of a woman who, just last week, had painters doing final repairs to her home after it flooded in 2022. Other people can’t afford to repair their homes at all.

Damage from the last floods extends beyond the material. Many people in the Northern Rivers are still dealing with mental health problems such as anxiety, depression and PTSD after the last disaster.

Still, people are preparing for Cyclone Alfred’s arrival – and drawing lessons from the 2022 floods in the hope of a better outcome this time.

Memories of Lismore floods

I have 20 years’ experience working on climate change adaptation and disaster risk management. My research focus includes the Northern Rivers, where I live. Last year, a study I led examined community collaboration across the region in response to disasters.

The Northern Rivers is located in the NSW northeast and is drained by three major rivers: the Richmond, Tweed and Clarence. The city of Lismore is one of the most flood-prone urban centres in Australia.

As my colleagues and I have previously written, the 2022 flood in Lismore and surrounds surprised even the most prepared residents.

Floodwaters in Lismore reached more than two metres higher than the previous record. Shocked residents were left clinging to their roofs. Businesses moved their stock to higher ground, but it was still destroyed. Houses above the so-called “flood line” were inundated.

Warning systems proved inadequate, and emergency agencies were overwhelmed. More than 10,800 homes were damaged.

Landslides and boulders fell on homes and roads, leaving people trapped and isolated for up to six weeks. Others could not access cash, petrol, communications, food, schools, carer services and medical assistance for long periods.

The 2022 floods were by no means the first disaster to befall the Northern Rivers. The region also flooded in 2017. In 2019 the region, like much of Australia, was deep in drought. The Black Summer bushfires hit in 2019-20, and Covid-19 struck in 2020. Parts of the region suffered bushfires in 2023.

Now, we are facing Cyclone Alfred.

The scale of the 2022 floods forced many residents to confront a harsh reality: in a disaster, emergency services cannot always help. Sometimes, people must fend for themselves.

That realisation prompted a growing community-led resilience movement. As Cyclone Alfred approaches, that network has swung into action.




Read more:
When disaster strikes, emergency responders can’t respond to every call. Communities must be helped to help themselves


A community coming together

Since 2022, community-resilience groups have emerged in each local government area across the region. The groups comprise, and are led by, community volunteers.

In my local government area, Byron Shire, there are 13 community resilience groups. I co-lead my local group.

We work with local organisations, government agencies and emergency services to help the community before, during and after a disaster. The local council convenes regular meetings between all these organisations.

My research shows strong information flows are crucial in disaster preparedness and recovery.

Since the Cyclone Alfred threat began, my community group has received regular updates from the SES on matters such as locations of sandbags and sand, the latest weather information advice, and when evacuation centres will open.

We also have an established a network of contacts who live on streets vulnerable to flooding. We pass on relevant information to other residents via Facebook and a WhatsApp group. In the past day we have been exchanging information such as whether flood pumps are working and the extent of beach erosion.

The flow of information is two-way. Byron Shire’s community resilience network is chaired by the local council, and has links to emergency management – the “lights and sirens” people. In this way, community knowledge and contributions are recognised and valued by decision-makers and other officials.

In recent days our group has fed advice up the chain to emergency services, such as the location of elderly and vulnerable people who may need help to evacuate.

A man holding a portable emergency satellite provided to a community resilience group in the Northern Rivers.
Facebook

Byron Shire Council has also loaned portable Starlink satellite dishes to some community-resilience groups. These devices provide essential and communication if phone and internet services fail in a disaster.

On a broader level, the Bureau of Meteorology is producing regular video updates about Cyclone Alfred in clear, plain language. This is helping to communicate the risks widely and give people the information they need.

Community resilience groups also seek to adopt a proactive, rather than reactive, approach to disasters – such as helping residents prepare for the next flood event.

This can be challenging. Many people and organisations in the region have understandably been focused on recovery after the 2022 floods. It can be hard to do this while also preparing for the next disaster.

And sometimes, people don’t want constant reminders of the potential for flooding. Some people just want to move on and think about something other than disaster.

If Cyclone Alfred brings destruction to the Northern Rivers, community resilience groups will play a big role in supporting health and wellbeing. Not everyone accesses formal mental health support after disasters. Communities and neighbours looking out for each other is crucial.

Tough times ahead

As I write, the Northern Rivers is starting to lose power and internet access. Winds are wild and rain lashed the region all night.

As climate change worsens, all communities must consider how they will cope with more intense disasters. The model of community-led resilience in the Northern Rivers shows a way forward.

There is still much work to do in the region. However, our experience of compounding disasters means we are well along the path to finding new ways to support each other through extreme events.




Read more:
Lismore faced monster floods all but alone. We must get better at climate adaptation, and fast


Rebecca McNaught is a Research Fellow at the University Centre for Rural Health (University of Sydney) in Lismore. She has received scholarship funding from the Australian Government’s Research Training Program Stipend. She is affiliated with the South Golden Beach, New Brighton and Ocean Shores Community Resilience Team. She has also conducted paid and voluntary work for the Northern Rivers not-for-profit registered charity Plan C.

ref. ‘No-one wants to go through this again’: how disaster-stricken residents in northern NSW are preparing for Cyclone Alfred – https://theconversation.com/no-one-wants-to-go-through-this-again-how-disaster-stricken-residents-in-northern-nsw-are-preparing-for-cyclone-alfred-251650

Two polls predict a thumping victory for Labor in WA election, the first with a reformed upper house

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The Western Australian state election will be held on Saturday, with polls closing at 9pm AEDT. A Newspoll, conducted February 27 to March 5 from a sample of 1,061, gave Labor a 57.5–42.5 lead, a 1.5-point gain for Labor since an early February WA Newspoll.

Primary votes were 44% Labor (up two), 29% Liberals (down three), 5% Nationals (up two), 10% Greens (down two), 3% One Nation (down one) and 9% for all Others (up two).

Labor Premier Roger Cook’s net approval was down one point to +17, with 55% satisfied and 38% dissatisfied. Liberal leader Libby Mettam’s net approval was up three to +1. Cook led as better premier by 53–34 (54–34 previously).

The Poll Bludger reported Friday that a DemosAU poll for The West Australian, conducted March 4–5 from a sample of 1,126, gave Labor a 57–43 lead. Primary votes were 43% Labor, 30% Liberals, 5% Nationals, 11% Greens and 11% for all Others. Cook led as preferred premier over Mettam by 47–32. By 49–31, voters thought WA was headed in the right direction.

At the March 2021 WA election, Labor won 53 of the 59 lower house seats on a two-party vote of 69.7–30.3, a record high for either major party at any state or federal election. Labor won 59.9% of the primary vote.

Labor was never going to match the 2021 result at this election, but if the results on Saturday reflect the Newspoll and DemosAU polls, they will exceed their 2017 result, when Labor won 41 of the 59 seats on a two-party vote of 55.5–44.5.

Upper house reforms

Prior to this election, WA had six upper house regions that each returned six members. From the ABC’s 2021 WA election pages, there were three Perth regions and three non-metro regions. Perth had 75% of WA’s enrolled voters, but only 50% of upper house seats.

Furthermore, the Mining & Pastoral region and Agricultural region had far fewer enrolled voters than the South West region. Combined, these two regions had just 10.1% of WA’s enrolled voters, but 33.3% of upper house seats.

Labor’s huge 2021 win gave them a majority in the upper house for the first time in WA history, with 22 of the 36 seats. Labor used this opportunity to convert the upper house into a single statewide electorate that will return 37 members by proportional representation with optional voter-directed preferences.

Under these reforms, a quota for election will be 1/38 of the vote or 2.63%. Parties that win about half the quota have a reasonable chance of winning a seat, so 1.3% could be enough to win. Labor also abolished group ticket voting (GTV), leaving Victoria as the only Australian jurisdiction that still uses this discredited system.

The Poll Bludger reported on February 23 Liberal leader Libby Mettam has promised to try to revert back to the old very malapportioned system if the Liberals win the election, rejecting the principle of one vote, one value. The old system was biased towards the Liberal and National parties. Analyst Kevin Bonham has condemned the Liberals.

ABC election analyst Antony Green said there will be 13 groups on the upper house ballot paper and a total of 146 candidates. To get a group box above the line, at least five candidates for that group were required. The number of candidates has been more than halved from 2021, when there were 325 upper house candidates. Group ticket voting encouraged a proliferation of micro parties and candidates.

In the lower house, there will be a total of 398 candidates for the 59 seats, down from 463 in 2021. Labor, the Liberals and Greens will contest all seats, the Nationals will contest 20, the Australian Christians 54 and One Nation 41.

Labor has huge lead in a SA state poll

The next South Australian state election will be held in March 2026. A DemosAU poll, conducted February 18–23 from a sample of 1,004, gave Labor a 59–41 lead (54.6–45.4 to Labor at the March 2022 election). Primary votes were 43% Labor, 30% Liberals, 10% Greens and 17% for all Others.

Labor incumbent Peter Malinauskas led the Liberals’ Vincent Tarzia as preferred premier by 51–23. By 53–33, voters thought SA was headed in the right direction.

The Poll Bludger reported Monday electoral reforms have passed parliament that will allow postal and pre-poll votes to be counted on election night. At previous SA elections, only votes cast at ordinary election day booths were counted on election night, with other types of votes taking at least a few days to count.

In the federal part of this poll, Labor led by 53–47 in SA (54.0–46.0 to Labor in SA at the 2022 federal election). Primary votes were 35% Coalition, 34% Labor, 11% Greens, 6% One Nation and 14% for all Others. Anthony Albanese led Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister by 39–33, and by 46–39 voters did not think Australia was headed in the right direction.

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Two polls predict a thumping victory for Labor in WA election, the first with a reformed upper house – https://theconversation.com/two-polls-predict-a-thumping-victory-for-labor-in-wa-election-the-first-with-a-reformed-upper-house-250264

‘Orgasms are a marvellous happiness’. Shere Hite gave voice to female sexuality in a landmark book – but the backlash was fierce

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Camilla Nelson, Associate Professor in Media and Journalism, University of Notre Dame Australia

Owen Franken/Corbis via Getty Images

In our feminist classics series we revisit influential works.


Shere Hite’s The Hite Report was quickly dubbed a “sexual revolution in 600 pages”. It did something nobody had considered worth doing: investigating women’s sexuality by asking them to share their thoughts and feelings, then relaying those reflections to readers in women’s own words.

This might not sound unusual today. But in 1976, it was incendiary.

Based on a survey of 3,000 women distributed by the New York Chapter of the National Organisation for Women (the feminist group co-founded by Betty Friedan), more than 75% of the book comprises narrative responses to open ended survey questions.

It includes a plethora of startlingly frank – for its time – and explicitly detailed opinions, anecdotes, complaints and criticisms about sex, masturbation and orgasm. The book is an extraordinarily rich cultural artefact in the archive of human intimacy.

Unsurprisingly, the women who responded to Hite’s survey thoroughly enjoyed sex. “Orgasm is the ultimate pleasure – which women often deny themselves, but men never do,” claimed one. “Orgasms are a marvellous happiness”, added another. “Orgasm cancels out rage and longing for at least 48 hours,” said yet another.

But it was the manner in which Hite’s respondents got their orgasms that made the book a scandal. “I think masturbation is essential to one’s health,” said one respondent. “[A]s I learned in my marriage – a partner is not always good sexually, though he may be wonderful in other ways.”

Masturbation is better than “bad sex with an incompatible partner”, explained another respondent. “The only way I can have an orgasm is by masturbating,” said another.

‘A complex nature’

The Hite Report did not attempt to define a sexual norm, or produce a representative survey sample, or pretend its data could be generalised to an entire population. But it did contain some statistical findings.

The most significant of these – the source of the book’s notoriety – was that only 30% of women surveyed reported being able to regularly or reliably reach orgasm through heterosexual intercourse. And yet, 80% reported they could easily and regularly reach orgasm through clitoral stimulation, which was frequently obtained through masturbation, either alone, or with their partner.

In her preface Hite argued that the canonical sexological works of the past 100 years – including the works of Sigmund Freud, Alfred Kinsey, and William Masters and Virginia Johnson – had constructed female sexuality “as essentially a response to male sexuality and intercourse”. She set out to demonstrate that “female sexuality might have a complex nature of its own”.

Hite argued sex was a cultural institution, not a biological one. Historically, men had defined sex in terms of their own needs and preferences, then mandated their preferences as biological.

Freud, for example, knew female orgasm could be reliably obtained through clitoral stimulation, but defined clitoral orgasm as an “immature orgasm” and orgasm arising from heterosexual intercourse as a “mature orgasm”. He then labelled women who could not achieve orgasm in the required way “frigid” and “hysterical”.

The Hite Report is organised into eight chapters or themes, starting with “Masturbation”, followed by “Orgasm”, “Intercourse”, “Clitoral Stimulation”, “Lesbianism”, “Sexual Slavery”, “The Sexual Revolution” and “Older Women”. In a concluding chapter, Hite reflects on the issues raised by survey participants.

In the chapter “Lesbianism”, a significant number of heterosexual-identified women confess same sex attraction, or else identify as bisexual. They also describe lesbian sexuality as “more variable”, and the “physical actions more mutual”.

“The basic difference with a woman is that there’s no end,” claimed one respondent, “[…] it’s like a circle, it goes on and on.”

“Lesbianism” sits in stark contrast to the chapter on “Sexual Slavery”, where Hite seeks to investigate why women pursue unequal sexual relationships, especially where respondents claim to receive little or no sexual pleasure.

“Having a man love me and want to have sex with me is necessary to my happiness,” claimed one respondent. “Sex makes me feel I am a woman to my husband instead of just a live-in maid,” added another.

“I’ve never heard a word of praise from my husband in 21 years except while having intercourse,” claimed yet another. “While I resent this, I still love him […] ”

Wildly successful

Many women applauded the book. Author Erica Jong, writing in The New York Times, called it a “revelation”. Others warned of a possible male backlash. “It seems that women are finally reporting the facts of their own sex,” wrote journalist Ellen Willis in the Washington Post, “and men are putting on the earmuffs of fear and retreating to deeper fantasies.”

This backlash was not long in coming. Playboy apocryphally dubbed it “The Hate Report”, a label regularly recycled in media outlets around the world, including by female journalists. One male journalist, writing in the Miami Herald, argued women could not be regarded as truthful or reliable witnesses to their own lives. “What annoys me about The Hite Report,” he wrote, “is its smug assumption that just because women made these comments, they’re true”.

Despite – or perhaps because of – this controversy, the book was wildly successful. It was translated into ten different languages – including French, Spanish, German, Italian, Hebrew and Japanese – and sold over 2 million copies within the first 12 months.

It remains the 30th bestselling book of all time, with 50 million copies sold in 45 countries, including two recently translated editions in China, where it sparked conversations among intellectuals interested in formerly taboo western culture.

Faking orgasms

Born in smalltown Missouri, Hite gained a masters degree in social history and in 1967 moved to New York to enrol in a PhD program at Columbia University. She left when conservative faculty members refused to allow her to complete her dissertation on female sexuality. Hite worked as a model to pay her tuition fees. She joined the National Organisation for Women when they protested the sexism of the Olivetti advertising campaigns, after Hite was cast as an “Olivetti girl” for the typewriter company.

Increasingly tagged as a “man-basher” after the publication of her book, Hite’s public persona was conventionally, almost theatrically feminine. She revelled in a contemporary Baroque aesthetic; a mirage of red lipstick, froufrou dresses, pancake-style makeup and tousled orange or platinum curls. And she spoke about sex in explicit detail, in a voice that was earnest, articulate and unembarrassed.

Hite did not “discover” the clitoral orgasm. Instead, by centring women’s experiences, and taking their reflections seriously, her work threw into question centuries of sexological studies. These studies had either pathologised normal female sexual functioning or else insisted any pleasure women derived from sex had to be a by-product of conventional heterosexual intercourse.

Even Masters and Johnson, who, in their reports from 1966 onwards, clinically proved all female orgasms were the result of clitoral stimulation, had insisted on the centrality of coitus.

As Hite told television show host Geraldo in 1977,

Masters and Johnson made a tremendous step forward in that they studied, and showed clinically, for the first time, that all orgasms are caused by clitoral stimulation, and we really have them to thank for that. However, when they described how it’s done – the thrusting of the penis causes the vaginal lips to move, which causes the skin that’s connected to the clitoris to move, which causes the glands to move over the clitoris, which supposedly gives you orgasm. But that doesn’t work for most women.

And yet, although the participants in Hite’s study were overwhelmingly educated and politically progressive, many confessed they felt compelled to fake an orgasm during intercourse to please a man.

“I ‘perform’ and boost his ego and confidence,” claimed one. “I do not like to think of myself as a performer but I feel judged and also judge myself when I don’t have an orgasm.” “[M]en do expect it, so I often force myself […],” said another.

Participants also claimed how a woman was seen to orgasm mattered. “I don’t show the signs you’re supposed to,” worried one. “They think because I don’t pant, scream and claw I haven’t had one,” said another. “I used to go out of my way to offer all the mythical Hollywood signs,” revealed another.

One participant even suggested the whole issue of sex was so politically fraught that, “Maybe sex would be better if we’d never heard of orgasm”.

Respondents also told Hite the “sexual revolution” of the 1960s and 1970s had intensified, rather than reduced, gender prejudices and double standards.

Sexual violence

Another breathtaking aspect of the book is the way participants’ answers are shot through with sexual violence. On the issue of sexual coercion, for example, one participant replied, “I’m not supposed to say ‘no’ since I’m legally married”.

On a question about the use of force in sex, another replied, “Only with my husband.” (In 1976, marital rape was legal and “acceptable” in most western nations.)

Rape myths are also common. “I define as rape someone you don’t know who attacks you,” said one respondent. “I never defined it as […] someone you know. If you define rape that way, every woman has been raped over and over.”

Another suggested rape wasn’t rape if a victim gave up fighting. “He really raped me, but not in the legal way. I couldn’t prevent him, in other words.”

Hite identified toxic gender stereotypes as the major driver of sexual violence, especially the belief that “a man’s need for ‘sex’ is a strong and urgent ‘drive’” which women were obligated to satisfy. “Women aren’t always free to not have sex,” explained one respondent.

Archival insights

The Hite archive is housed in the Schlesinger Library of the Radcliffe Institute at Harvard University. It comprises over 250 filing boxes and folios, occupying more than 30 metres of shelf space. Most of the material relates to Hite’s public career as a sex researcher, with a small scattering of personal papers.

I was at Harvard doing research for a book on Hite’s contemporary Andrea Dworkin. Although the two feminists exist as polar opposites in the public imagination, they thoroughly agreed with one another, and enjoyed a supportive working relationship. And so I wanted to take a look.

Among the publishing agreements, speaking invitations, publicity material and the copies of the edited and revised questionnaires that formed the basis of the 1976 report – which are printed in vermillion – an occasional note flips out.

One, a seemingly unpublished open letter titled “Dear Women”, bears the traces of the intense, frequently misogynistic and overtly hostile media scrutiny that marked Hite’s wild catapult to fame.

“Sometimes I feel I am dying here in the midst of all this,” she writes, “without the support of anyone”.

Another, scrawled in a flamboyant purple felt tip pen in the midst of her 1977 book tour of France, reads, “I know that I have done something good – but somehow I feel evil […] When did that start?”

There are also letters from readers. One, sent from Milan in the wake of the controversy that accompanied the Italian edition of the book, bears the typewritten subject line “Personal”. It reads:

Dear Ms Hite,
I am 43 years old and have never written a fan letter in my life until today. But I feel a moral obligation to tell you that your ‘Report’ has rehabilitated me in my own eyes. After years of thinking there was something wrong with me, your book has shown me I’m normal.

Hite’s “Dear Women” letter describes the extraordinary challenges, including the financial challenges, she faced both before and after the book was published.

Macmillan, after purchasing the rights to the book, went cold on the project when the commissioning editor resigned or, as Hite phrases it, “quit/was fired depending on your point of view”. The publisher made no plan to promote the book and assigned a 22-year-old man to answer any media queries.

Hite decided to step in, when, working in the publisher’s offices late one evening, she found a letter from her male publicist declining an invitation to discuss The Hite Report on TV as “he thought my book/subject might be too ‘ticklish’ for television”.

Hite’s contract with Macmillan gave her little or no control over international editions of the book (and severely limited the income she could take from royalties, before it was ruled unconscionable by a court). In 1978, she “flew around the world twice” attempting to stop the book from being sensationalised.

In France, the publisher had promised Hite a plain print cover, but was overruled by an all-male advertising department who “printed a cover with a nude woman”. In the second printing, the publisher agreed to revert to plain text.

In Israel, entire sections of the first edition text were censored. Protests by local journalists led to the publisher engaging an Israeli feminist to re-translate the work.

In Japan, the male translator produced a translation that was “so embarrassed and vague that it made absolutely no sense”. But on this occasion, a sympathetic female editor stepped in to rewrite entire sections of the manuscript.

Hite’s Australian reception ranked among the most hostile. Her research assistant described the trip as “hideous”, alleging Hite had “never before encountered” such “vicious attitudes” as those exhibited by male journalists.

Hite’s research assistant revealed in a separate letter that Hite’s doctors had “absolutely forbid her to do anything but rest for the next few months” after the Australian trip.

Later life

In her preface, Hite writes that she hoped to start a conversation through which men and women might “begin to devise more kind, generous, and personal ways of relating”.

Sadly, this was not what happened. Hite went on to release four major reports on human sexuality, including a report on male sexuality, one on women and love, and one on the family. Then in 1996, she revoked her US citizenship and moved to Germany, saying the media’s hostility towards her made it impossible to continue working.

Living in Germany, and later in Paris and London, she published her autobiography, The Hite Report on Shere Hite, and The Hite Reader, containing a selection of her published work. She died in 2020, aged 77.

What marks the Hite Report as an artefact from another era is less the peculiar patois of the “Age of Aquarius”, than the way in which Hite’s respondents so often defined their identities through their husband’s, whether as a wife, former wife, or woman destined to be a wife. “Wifedom” is the default state.

Equally, what makes the book disturbing, is the reality of sexual violence and coercion that lurks in so many answers, even when respondents are not being questioned about violence or coercion directly.

With shocked recognition, the reader realises society has not changed nearly as much as some would like to think. The fact it has changed at all is partly due to the second sexual revolution ignited by Hite’s work.

Camilla Nelson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. ‘Orgasms are a marvellous happiness’. Shere Hite gave voice to female sexuality in a landmark book – but the backlash was fierce – https://theconversation.com/orgasms-are-a-marvellous-happiness-shere-hite-gave-voice-to-female-sexuality-in-a-landmark-book-but-the-backlash-was-fierce-246150

We simulated the upcoming AFL season four different ways – here’s what was predicted

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tara Lind, PhD Candidate, La Trobe University

The 2025 AFL season is just around the corner and fans are pondering the big questions: who will play finals? Who will finish in the top four? Who’s getting the wooden spoon?

The start of a new season brings with it many unknowns, hopes, and in some cases, trepidation.

Hawthorn finished 2024 playing some of the most exciting footy in the competition – can they keep that momentum going?

Collingwood enters 2025 with the oldest and most experienced list – will that be the key to another deep finals run? Or are they over the hill?

Can Carlton finally break its premiership drought? Can West Coast, North Melbourne, or Richmond get back on track? What can Fremantle do with its young list and high expectations?

With so many unknowns, we turned to data.

Simulations and predictions

In La Trobe University’s Master of Sport Analytics, students need to build their own footy tipping algorithms and use them to simulate future matches.

We’ve seen lots of different approaches to this problem. Each comes with its own set of assumptions and blind spots.

One straightforward way to try to forecast what will happen in the upcoming season is to just look at history: how often does a team that finishes first on the ladder stay on top the next?

That’s happened seven times since 1990, so about 20% of the time.

We can model probabilities like this for every ladder position to get a gauge on how rankings typically shift from season to season, and apply this to the end-of-season 2024 ladder to predict the 2025 standings.

This approach does not take into account last year’s finals results, the different age profiles of teams, the 2025 fixture, or other team changes such as trades, retirements, or injuries.

Taking age into account

How about if we consider player ages as well? This should give us a better sense of a team’s expected change between seasons.

Research has suggested AFL players reach their peak performance levels at around 24-25.

A quick look at team median ages since 1990 agrees: teams with a median player age over 25 typically have a worse winning percentage the following year, and teams younger than 24 usually improve (with plenty of exceptions).

Combining last year’s ladder with age profiles gives a different view of the upcoming season.

There is more shuffling, with older teams like Collingwood and Melbourne expected to fall, while the younger Fremantle, Gold Coast and Adelaide lists are given higher probabilities of finishing near the top.

We’re still left with some important blind spots though: information from last year’s finals (Brisbane performed far better than a typical fifth-place finisher), and the difficulty of the upcoming fixture, have not been considered.

The Elo rating system

To take the full 2025 fixture into account, we need to simulate the entire season game by game.

That can be done if we use the Elo rating system to get a “strength” rating for each team.

Elo ratings track team strength over time: ratings go up with a win and down with a loss. The amount it changes depends on the opponent – beating a strong team boosts the rating more than beating a weak one, and the ratings update after every game played.

We’ll use the Elo ratings that each team ended up on at the end of last year (including finals) as a baseline for 2025.

With these ratings, we can calculate the probability of one team beating another in any given matchup. The method also considers home ground advantage by giving the home team a small rating boost.

Once we have probabilities for each match outcome, we can simulate the entire season. Here’s how it works:

  • Each game needs a winner. To decide, we use a computer function that picks a winner based on probability, kind of like flipping a weighted coin. If a team has a 70% probability of winning, it’s more likely to be chosen, but there’s still a 30% chance they lose
  • This is done for every game in the season
  • We then repeat this 10,000 times – simulating 10,000 different versions of the season
  • In each version, we create an end-of-season ladder, based on the simulated games results
  • After all the simulations, we can see how often each team finishes in each ladder position. This gives us a prediction for their chances of finishing first, second, third and so on.

The Elo approach favours Brisbane much more and is less kind to West Coast (35% chance of finishing last).

It does not predict the decline of Collingwood and Melbourne because, although it takes into account the finals and fixture, it doesn’t have an age component.

The ‘wisdom of the crowd’

If each approach comes with its own set of limitations, then we might expect to get a better forecast by combining lots of predictions from different sources because of the “wisdom of the crowd”.

The idea is that you get more accurate predictions if you combine multiple independent sources.

Luckily for us, each season, several AFL stats experts build models to estimate the probability of each match outcome and generously post them online.

What goes into each model is not always known, but they consider a mixture of different factors such as attacking and defending strengths, in-game statistics, home ground advantage, player lists and trades, last season’s performance and more.

For our analysis, we’ll combine the Elo model with the average of all these expert tips to get a “wisdom of the crowd” prediction for each game’s probability. The ladder can then be simulated using the same method as above.

Four groups emerge from the wisdom of the crowd:

  • Brisbane, Hawthorn, Geelong and the Western Bulldogs are predicted to lead the pack, surpassing last year’s top three
  • Sydney, Port Adelaide, GWS, Carlton, Fremantle, Collingwood and Adelaide have a wide spread of predicted finishes, skewed more towards finishing in the top eight – but there won’t be enough room for all of them
  • Essendon, Melbourne, St Kilda and Gold Coast might challenge for a spot in the finals, but the models are less confident in their chances
  • West Coast, North Melbourne and Richmond are hard to separate from each other, a cut below the rest.

Uncertainty and excitement

Each table tells a potentially different story but the most universal theme is uncertainty.

Team sports are hard to predict, especially before we’ve had a chance to observe any games, and even the most confident predictions are under 40% (meaning they are more likely not to happen).

Uncertainty leads to excitement, and this data only makes us more excited to see what will play out this season.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. We simulated the upcoming AFL season four different ways – here’s what was predicted – https://theconversation.com/we-simulated-the-upcoming-afl-season-four-different-ways-heres-what-was-predicted-249475

AI doesn’t really ‘learn’ – and knowing why will help you use it more responsibly

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kai Riemer, Professor of Information Technology and Organisation, University of Sydney

HAKINMHAN/Shutterstock

What if we told you that artificial intelligence (AI) systems such as ChatGPT don’t actually learn? Many people we talk to are genuinely surprised to hear this.

Even AI systems themselves will often tell you confidently that they are learning systems. Many reports and even academic papers say the same. But this is due to a misconception – or rather a loose understanding of what we mean by “learning” in AI.

Yet, understanding more precisely how and when AI systems learn (and when they don’t) will make you a more productive and more responsible user of AI.

AI does not learn – at least not like humans do

Many misconceptions around AI stem from using words that have a certain meaning when applied to humans, such as learning. We know how humans learn, because we do it all the time. We have experiences; we do something that fails; we encounter something new; we read something surprising; and thus we remember, we update or change the way we do things.

This is not how AI systems learn. There are two main differences.

Firstly, AI systems do not learn from any specific experiences, which would allow them to understand things the way we humans do. Rather they “learn” by encoding patterns from vast amounts data – using mathematics alone. This happens during the training process, when they are built.

Take large language models, such as GPT-4, the technology that powers ChatGPT. In a nutshell, it learns by encoding mathematical relationships between words (actually, tokens), with the aim to make predictions about what text goes with what other text. These relationships are extracted from vast amounts of data and encoded during a computationally intensive training phase.

This form of “learning” is obviously very different to how humans learn.

It has certain downsides in that AI often struggles with simple commonsense knowledge about the world that humans naturally learn by just living in the world.

But AI training is also incredibly powerful, because large language models have “seen” text at a scale far beyond what any human can comprehend. That’s why these systems are so useful with language-based tasks, such as writing, summarising, coding, or conversing. The fact these systems don’t learn like us, but at a vast scale, makes them all-rounders in the kinds of things they do excel at.

AI systems do not learn from any specific experiences, which would allow them to understand things the way we humans do.
Rido/Shutterstock

Once trained, the learning stops

Most AI systems that most people use, such as ChatGPT, also do not learn once they are built. You could say AI systems don’t learn at all – training is just how they’re built, it’s not how they work. The “P” in GPT literally stands for “pre-trained”.

In technical terms, AI systems such as ChatGPT only engage in “training-time learning”, as part of their development, not in “run-time learning”. Systems that learn as they go do exist. But they are typically confined to a single task, for example your Netflix algorithm recommending what to watch. Once it’s done, it’s done, as the saying goes.

Being “pre-trained” means large language models are always stuck in time. Any updates to their training data require highly costly retraining, or at least so-called fine-tuning for smaller adjustments.

That means ChatGPT does not learn from your prompts on an ongoing basis. And out of the box, a large language model does not remember anything. It holds in its memory only whatever occurs in a single chat session. Close the window, or start a new session, and it’s a clean sheet every time.

There are ways around this, such as storing information about the user, but they are achieved at the application level; the AI model itself does not learn and remains unchanged until retrained (more on that in a moment).

Most AI systems that most people use, such as ChatGPT, also do not learn once they are built.
Ascannio/Shutterstock

What does this mean for users?

First, be aware of what you get from your AI assistant.

Learning from text data means systems such as ChatGPT are language models, not knowledge models. While it is truly amazing how much knowledge gets encoded via the mathematical training process, these models are not always reliable when asked knowledge questions.

Their real strength is working with language. And don’t be surprised when responses contain outdated information given they are frozen in time, or that ChatGPT does not remember any facts you tell it.

The good news is AI developers have come up with some clever workarounds. For example, some versions of ChatGPT are now connected to the internet. To provide you with more timely information they might perform a web search and insert the result into your prompt before generating the response.

Another workaround is that AI systems can now remember things about you to personalise their responses. But this is done with a trick. It is not that the large language model itself learns or updates itself in real time. The information about you is stored in a separate database and is inserted into the prompt each time in ways that remain invisible.

But it still means that you can’t correct the model when it gets something wrong (or teach it a fact), which it would remember to correct its answers for other users. The model can be personalised to an extent, but it still does not learn on the fly.

Users who understand how exactly AI learns – or doesn’t – will invest more in developing effective prompting strategies, and treat the AI as an assistant – one that always needs checking.

Let the AI assist you. But make sure you do the learning, prompt by prompt.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. AI doesn’t really ‘learn’ – and knowing why will help you use it more responsibly – https://theconversation.com/ai-doesnt-really-learn-and-knowing-why-will-help-you-use-it-more-responsibly-250923

When patients are harmed in hospital, issues aren’t always fixed to avoid it happening again

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Hibbert, Honorary Professor, Australian Institute of Health Innovation, Macquarie University

Pormezz/Shutterstock

Over the past two weeks, the media has reported several cases of serious “adverse events”, where babies, children and an adult experienced harm and ultimately died while receiving care in separate Australian hospitals.

When a serious adverse event occurs, hospitals investigate what happened and why, and propose recommendations to reduce the risk of similar harm occurring again.

About 1,600 patient safety investigations are undertaken each year. And the stakes are high. If not managed well, the hospital’s response can compound the psychological harm to the patient and their family. If lessons aren’t learnt, patient safety doesn’t improve.

Despite three decades of concerted effort, the rate of adverse events remains stubbornly high in Australia. One in ten people will experience harm associated with their hospital care.

What can be done to reduce this harm? There is no quick fix but our research shows improving hospital investigations can have a big impact. Here’s how this can be done.

What exactly are ‘adverse events’?

Thirty years ago, one of the first large-scale studies of the rates of harm to patients in Australian hospitals was published – the Quality in Australian Health Care Study.

Alongside subsequent studies in other countries, it found one in ten hospital admissions were associated with an “adverse event”. These included:

  • incidents with medications (such as administering the wrong dose or drug)

  • hospital-acquired infections (associated with surgery or intravenous lines)

  • physical or mental health deterioration which is not detected and managed in a timely way.

Some adverse events can lead to patients suffering serious or permanent physical disabilities and psychological trauma.

Clinicians involved in such events can also suffer significant psychological distress and grief.

How are they investigated?

When a serious adverse event occurs, hospitals form a team to undertake a patient safety investigation. The teams harness experts from the clinical specialties involved in the adverse event (such as emergency department or surgery) and health service safety personnel.

The investigation also informs “open disclosure” – information for the patient and family about why the adverse event occurred and what changes the health service intends to make to prevent a similar adverse event from happening again.

But our research has shown most recommendations in these investigations are unlikely to reduce harm to patients.

The complexity of health care, workforce shortages and broader pressures on the health system (such as an ageing population requiring more complex care) often work against health services effectively implementing recommendations.

So what can be done?

We are undertaking research with four state and territory governments (New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and the Australian Capital Territory) to test these strategies and inform how they can be redesigned for safer care. Here’s what we’ve found so far.

A well-recognised problem with some investigations is their lack of specialised expertise in patient safety. The field is backed by robust research, yet often the people undertaking the investigations are experts in their clinical field, or in the running of a hospital, but not in safety science.

Added to that, the sheer complexity of health care makes the task of finding the factors that contributed to the harm and developing effective recommendations even more challenging.

Consider the contrast this has with biomedical sciences, such as developing new drugs or tests. These use large, specialist, independent research institutions with highly trained scientists. Yet patient safety problems, which are arguably as complex, are expected to be solved with fewer resources, using part-time staff with variable task-specific experience and training, at a local hospital.

Complex patient safety problems require appropriate investments in expertise and independence.

Findings of investigations tend not to be shared. This means learning remains local. Repeated investigations of the same type of adverse event may be undertaken at multiple hospitals, duplicating effort.

More sharing of adverse events by hospitals and health departments would reduce this duplication and make learning more efficient. Aviation does this well. If a commercial jet experiences a problem or near miss, the issue is shared so every airline knows about it.

If we did this, we could redesign hospital systems to support safer care. This could, for example, include standardising how medication information, such as the dose, is displayed on all hospital computer systems. Doctors going from one hospital to another would be less likely to make errors in prescribing medication, which is a common patient safety risk.

Thirty years after the rates of adverse events were first reported in Australia, patients and the broader public deserve to know that investigations are being conducted effectively and that strategies are being adopted to keep every hospital visit safer.




Read more:
Operating on the wrong body part – what can be done to prevent it?


Peter Hibbert receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council as a Partnership Grant, with partners: the Clinical Excellence Commission in New South Wales, Safer Care Victoria, Clinical Excellence Queensland, and Australian Capital Territory Health.
He also undertakes training in undertaking patient safety investigations and consulting to health services.

Jeffrey Braithwaite receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council as a Partnership Grant, with partners: the Clinical Excellence Commission in New South Wales, Safer Care Victoria, Clinical Excellence Queensland and Australian Capital Territory Health.

ref. When patients are harmed in hospital, issues aren’t always fixed to avoid it happening again – https://theconversation.com/when-patients-are-harmed-in-hospital-issues-arent-always-fixed-to-avoid-it-happening-again-251064

Underfunded? Overfunded? How school funding works in Australia

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Perry, Professor of Education Policy and Comparative Education, Murdoch University

Getty Images

During the federal election campaign we can expect to hear candidates talk passionately about school funding. This is one of the most contentious areas of education policy – and one many families and voters care deeply about.

You may hear some parties talking about how they are “fully funding” schools and other commentary about schools being under or overfunded.

How does school funding work in Australia?

Where does the money come from?

All schools in Australia receive both public and private funding. Public funding is taxpayer funding and it comes from both state and federal governments.

Private funding comes from parents and households, as well as churches and other associations, which are mostly charitable. These charitable organisations receive tax breaks.

How does government funding work?

All schools in Australia receive funding from federal and state governments.

The amount they receive is based on the “schooling resource standard”. This standard – which dates back to the 2011 school funding review by David Gonski – establishes a baseline amount schools should receive based on the number of pupils they enrol.

Extra loadings are then provided for schools and students with special needs, for example students with disabilities, from low socioeconomic backgrounds or in remote areas.

The estimated baseline schooling resource standard for 2025 is A$17,565 per secondary student and $13,977 per primary student.

The latest federal school funding policy, the Better and Fairer Schools Agreement sets out how public schools will receive 25% of the schooling resource standard from the federal government and rest from their respective state government.

Up to 80% of a non-government school’s schooling resource standard funding can be provided by the federal government. But the actual amount is adjusted by something called a school’s “capacity to contribute”.

This measures a non-government school community’s capacity to contribute to the ongoing costs of running their school. In practice, it sees lower-fee non-government schools receive more public funding than higher-fee non-government schools.

State governments also provide public funding to non-government schools. This is because school funding agreements require state governments to contribute some level of funding to non-government schools.




Read more:
NSW has finally struck a school funding deal. What does this mean for schools and students?


How are schools funded by other sources?

All schools in Australia receive private funding from parents and households.

Public schools receive private funding in the form of fees and contributions from parents. These fees and contributions can vary from a few hundred dollars at some public primary schools to thousands of dollars at some public secondary schools.

This funding is used to support building and facilities, excursions, as well as subsidise curriculum subjects, especially in secondary schools.

Non-government schools receive private funding in the form of fees. These are often many thousands of dollars per student. In NSW and Victoria in 2024, recent research on independent schools (not including Catholic schools) indicates average fees for Year 12 are at least $15,674.

Non-government schools in particular receive a substantial funding from philanthropic and charitable organisations.

According to analysis by advocacy group Save Our Schools, 50 non-government schools received $461 million dollars in donations between 2017 and 2021.




Read more:
Are public schools really ‘free’? Families can pay hundreds of dollars in voluntary fees


What is meant by ‘underfunded’ and ‘overfunded?’

In media and policy debates about schools we frequently hear talk of public schools being “underfunded” or still not “fully funded”. We also hear about some independent schools being “overfunded”.

This relates to whether they are receiving what they are entitled to under the schooling resources standard.

To date approximately 2% of public schools, receive the amount they are entitled to based on the schooling resources standard. This is largely because state and territory governments, other than the ACT, have not contributed their full share.

This means the vast majority of public schools are “underfunded”.

The most recent national school funding agreement has set out a timeline to make sure all schools are eventually fully funded. In some cases, this may not be until the 2030s.

On the other hand, many non-government schools are “overfunded” because they are receiving more than the amount specified by the schooling resource standard.

Non-government schools that charge fees in excess of the schooling resource standard will be “overfunded”. Even moderate-fee schools may be “overfunded” because of the public funding they receive on top of the private funding paid by parents.

As noted earlier, school funding agreements require federal and state governments to contribute to the schooling resource standard of all non-government schools. Even high-fee non-government schools receive substantial amounts of public funding.

For example, my 2024 research suggests high-fee non-government schools (those charging $25,000 per year or more) receive approximately $5,000 per pupil in public funding.




Read more:
As more money is flagged for WA schools, what does ‘fully funded’ really mean?


Are some non-government schools at risk of losing funds?

Most non-government schools will continue to receive increases in public funding due to indexation.

But there are headlines about “private school funding cuts”.

This is because some non-government schools will see less public funding if the federal government has been paying more than 80% of the schooling resource standard (due to outdated funding methods). Schools have until 2029 to transition to the current funding system.

This will only impact a small proportion of non-government schools. For example, in January, The Sydney Morning Herald reported 30 schools were projected to lose funding.

Laura Perry does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Underfunded? Overfunded? How school funding works in Australia – https://theconversation.com/underfunded-overfunded-how-school-funding-works-in-australia-251048

Meet Maria Clementina Sobieska, the defiant queen who pulled off a jailbreak to secure the Jacobite legacy

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Darius von Guttner Sporzynski, Historian, Australian Catholic University

Wikimedia

Maria Clementina Sobieski is one of only three women buried in the famous St Peter’s Basilica in Vatican City, alongside an estimated 100 or so popes. She lived a life of extraordinary defiance and determination.

Born in 1701 in Oława, Poland, Maria Clementina was the granddaughter of King John III Sobieski of Poland, who was famous for his victory in the 1683 Battle of Vienna against the forces of the Ottoman Empire.

While this ancestry provided Maria Clementina her status as a princess, it also came with significant challenges, by placing her at the centre of 18th century European dynastic politics.

At just 17 years old, she was betrothed to James Stuart, the Jacobite claimant to the British throne. This match, which held immense political and religious significance, was agreed to by her father, Jakub, after negotiations with Stuart.

But her journey to marriage wouldn’t simple. It required a daring escape from imprisonment in Innsbruck, where she was held by Emperor Charles VI in a bid to prevent her union with Stuart.

Francesco Bertosi’s painting, ‘Princess Maria Clementina Sobieska, 1701–1735. Wife of Prince James Francis Edward Stuart’, 1719.
National Galleries of Scotland

A high-stakes abduction

The marriage between Maria Clementina and James Stuart was a direct challenge to the Protestant king George I of Great Britain.

James Stuart, also known as the Old Pretender, was living in exile and sought to reclaim the British throne that was his by birthright. His marriage to Maria Clementina, which was endorsed by Pope Clement XI, would symbolise Catholic unity against growing Protestant dominance.

Recognising this political threat, George I asked Emperor Charles VI, his ally, to order Maria Clementina’s detention in Innsbruck while she was en route to her wedding.

Her confinement was intended to coerce her family into annulling the engagement. However, Maria Clementina, bolstered by her unwavering faith and determination, refused to capitulate.

Anton Raphael Mengs’s painting, ‘Prince James Francis Edward Stuart’, circa 1740s.
Wikimedia

The perilous escape

Maria Clementina’s imprisonment at the hands of Charles VI lasted six months. During this time, she kept her spirits high through correspondence with James Stuart and her father, Jakub. Meanwhile, plans for her escape were set in motion by Charles Wogan, an Irish Jacobite loyal to Stuart.

The princess disguised herself by switching clothes with the servant of one of her rescuers, Eleanor Misset. She then slipped past imperial guards with a small group posing as a travelling family.

The escape involved avoiding imperial agents and enduring significant physical hardship, including traversing the harsh and mountainous Brenner Pass in the Alps.

In one instance, after a carriage axle broke, Maria Clementina and Eleanor Misset were forced to walk a considerable distance to find shelter. Despite the gruelling journey, Maria Clementina demonstrated remarkable resolve, earning the admiration of her companions.

Reaching safety and marriage

After crossing into Italy, the group arrived in Bologna, where Maria Clementina rested and prepared for her new role as James Stuart’s wife. Her wedding took place on May 9 1719 in a modest ceremony.

Although James Stuart was absent (not unusual for high-profile dynastic alliances at the time), the marriage formalised their union and reinforced the Jacobite claim to the British throne.

Maria Clementina wore a white dress to symbolise mourning for James Stuart’s late mother, Maria Beatrice d’Este. The ceremony was attended by Jacobite activist Charles Wogan and other members of the escape team, including Eleanor Misset.

And so Maria Clementina became the titular Catholic queen of England, Scotland and Ireland.

Agostino Masucci’s ‘The Solemnisation of the Marriage of James III and Maria Clementina Sobieska’, circa 1735.
National Galleries of Scotland

Motherhood and family challenges

Maria Clementina’s bold actions ensured the continuity of the Jacobite line. On December 31 1720 she gave birth to her first son, Charles Edward Stuart, later known as Bonnie Prince Charlie.

He was baptised within the hour by Father Lawrence Mayes, the same bishop who officiated his parents’ wedding, and his birth was widely celebrated by Jacobite supporters.

Maria Clementina’s second son, Henry Benedict Stuart, was born on March 6 1725 and was later made Duke of York.

A monument in St Peter’s Basilica dedicated to the royal Stuarts, James and his sons, Charles and Henry.
Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

While the birth of her sons brought joy and hope to the Jacobite cause, Maria Clementina’s relationship with James Stuart grew strained.

As one household observer remarked:

their tempers are so very different that though in the greatest trifles they are never of the same opinion, the one won’t yield an inch to the other.

James neglected Maria Clementina. The pair also clashed over their sons’ education, further straining the marriage.

The later years

By the end of 1725, Maria Clementina’s frustrations with her marriage reached a breaking point. She left James and took up residence at the convent of St Cecilia in Trastevere, Rome, leaving her young sons behind.

For two years she embraced a devout lifestyle, focusing on her own welfare. Her return to James in 1728 was marked by a withdrawal from court life, and she spent much of her time in seclusion at Rome’s Palazzo Muti.

John Pettie (1834-93), ‘Bonnie Prince Charlie Entering the Ballroom at Holyroodhouse’, before April 1892.
Royal Collection Trust, CC BY-NC-SA

Despite her struggles, Maria Clementina’s legacy as a mother was significant. Charles Edward Stuart and Henry Benedict Stuart carried the Jacobite cause forward, their lives shaped by the resilience and determination demonstrated by their mother. Her commitment to their futures ensured the Jacobite line endured, even as political realities shifted.

Maria Clementina died on January 18 1735 at the age of 32. She was given a royal funeral in St Peter’s Basilica, where she was interred with honours befitting her status as queen. Her heart was enshrined separately in the church of the Twelve Holy Apostles in Rome.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Meet Maria Clementina Sobieska, the defiant queen who pulled off a jailbreak to secure the Jacobite legacy – https://theconversation.com/meet-maria-clementina-sobieska-the-defiant-queen-who-pulled-off-a-jailbreak-to-secure-the-jacobite-legacy-247211

What the f#$%? The surprising legal rules about brand trademarks of sweary phrases

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexandra Allen-Franks, Senior Lecturer; Co-director of the New Zealand Centre for Human Rights Law, Policy and Practice and Co-director of the New Zealand Centre for Intellectual Property Law, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

drante/Getty Images

Journalist Paddy Gower’s attempts to trademark his brand have highlighted what is still considered offensive in New Zealand when it comes to trademarks. But should a government agency be the arbiter of what might offend?

In March 2024, Gower applied to trademark the name of his news entity “This Is The Fucking News”.

The application stalled at the Intellectual Property Office of New Zealand (IPONZ), likely because the Trade Marks Act 2002 doesn’t allow people to register trademarks which are “likely to offend a significant section of the community”.

“THIS IS THE F#$%ING NEWS” however, was apparently okay. Gower applied for that mark in June last year and it was registered in December. He now has exclusive rights to use this phrase for specified goods and services.

A changing definition

New Zealand law first prohibited the registration of “scandalous” marks in 1889. The language used in the trademark statute has been “likely to offend” since 2002.

The current rules cover swear words, as in Gower’s case, but also hate speech and material which is culturally offensive.

IPONZ’s current guidance says a “distinction should be drawn between marks that are offensive and marks that would be considered by some to be in poor taste”. Offensive trademarks are said to be those that would create “justifiable censure or outrage”.

But the standards of offensiveness can and do change.

In 1999, Red Bull applied to register “BULLSHIT”. Registration was rejected on the basis that it contained scandalous matter and was contrary to morality (under the wording in the older law).

Perhaps Red Bull wouldn’t face the same difficulty if it tried again today. There is now a registration for “Shit You Should Care About”. It appears that the word shit is not considered one that’s “likely to offend a significant section of the community” anymore.

From a review of the register, it seems reasonable to conclude that IPONZ thinks that certain swear words do remain likely to offend, though. Several applications have been abandoned, including for “THE FUCKING GOOD BOOK” and “no fucks given”.

Whether a mark is offensive is supposed to be determined objectively from the perspective of the “right-thinking” member of the public. But outcomes can appear inconsistent and perhaps arbitrary — why is “F#$%ING” ok, but the proper spelling not?

A view of a Red Bull logo during the Red Bull Heavy Metal street snowboarding event
Energy company Red Bull tried, and failed, to trademark a swear word in 1999.
Icon Sportswire/Getty Images

Limits on freedom of expression?

Some applicants may also decry that their freedom of expression is being curtailed by a refusal to register.

The common justification for protecting freedom of expression is that we should have an open marketplace of ideas, where both good and bad ideas are shared with the public.

New Zealand is not alone in considering these issues.

In the United States, for example, Simon Tam was refused registration for “THE SLANTS” (the name of his rock band) because the law at the time prohibited registration of marks which may be disparaging. Slant is considered a racist term by some and Tam had wanted to reclaim the slur as an anti-racist statement.

In another case, designer Erik Brunetti was refused registration of “FUCT” for clothing, because the law said that immoral or scandalous marks couldn’t be registered.

Both marks have since been registered for reasons related to the fact that the US Constitution’s First Amendment allows for the right to freedom of speech.

The US trademarks register now contains a pending application for “NAZI KAZI” and a pending application for a symbol described as “roughly resembling a swastika”, as well as two pending applications for marks containing the word “N*GGER”.

These marks may not ever be registered, but the barriers against their registration aren’t what they once were.

Limiting offence or limiting rights?

New Zealand obviously has a different constitutional context than the US, but there are similarities in the underlying question about what is, and isn’t offensive – and the role of the government in determining the rules.

One big difference between the US cases and those in New Zealand, however, is that New Zealand’s Bill of Rights allows for limits on rights, if those limits are reasonable, set out in law (like the Trade Marks Act) and justifiable in a free and democratic society.

So, is there a compelling justification for the prohibition on registering offensive marks?

One argument for the prohibition is to protect the public from exposure to these kinds of marks. However, the denial of registration doesn’t prevent the marks from being used in the marketplace.

Refusal means that an applicant misses out on the benefits of a formal trademark registration (such as being able to sue others for trademark infringement). But there’s nothing stopping a person using an unregistered mark. And, refusing registration may actually free up the mark for more people to use it as it doesn’t belong to just one person or business.

Perhaps a more compelling argument for prohibition is that registration should be refused to avoid giving an official (governmental) seal of approval to offensive marks. This may be a very high bar, but it seems important that a registrar consider the likelihood of deep offence, even if the standard is not often reached.

Putting justifications for any bar aside, it remains hard to draw a line as to what is and isn’t okay. It seems in relation to “THIS IS THE F#$%ING NEWS”, that line is razor thin.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. What the f#$%? The surprising legal rules about brand trademarks of sweary phrases – https://theconversation.com/what-the-f-the-surprising-legal-rules-about-brand-trademarks-of-sweary-phrases-251474

Trudeau’s record may be spotty, but his biggest accomplishment was a national child-care program

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Naomi Lightman, Associate Professor of Sociology, Toronto Metropolitan University

As Canada prepares to close the book on the Justin Trudeau era, some will be happy to watch him go. But in Canada’s haste to see him out the door, let’s not forget his government’s significant achievements.

His strong performance in the ongoing showdown with United States President Donald Trump, for example, may have led Canadians to view him in a distinctly more positive light.

But what’s undoubtedly been his single greatest achievement — prodded in no small part by the NDP — was the introduction of a national child-care program: The Canada-Wide Early Learning and Child Care (CWELCC) system, colloquially known as $10-a-day child care.

As scholars of social policy — as well as a mother and grandfather — we believe this program is the biggest improvement to Canada’s welfare state since the initial implementation of medicare in 1966-67, updated via the Canada Health Act in 1984.

Somehow, however, amid all the negative Trudeau headlines, this major contribution has been seemingly forgotten.

Gender equality

Trudeau’s child-care program is a massive advancement for gender equality and should be celebrated by all women, parents and — more broadly — people who care about reducing social inequalities.

By freeing parents — mostly women — from the need to stay home with their children or from having to rely on ageing and often frail grandparents, evidence suggests Canada will experience substantial benefits to children, parents and society as a whole.

The program allows highly skilled and motivated workers to join the paid labour force and could also affect fertility decisions in some cases if, for example, families decide to have more children due to reduced child-care costs.

Just as importantly, formal child care benefits children developmentally, particularly in the case of disadvantaged and single-parent households.

In purely fiscal terms, study after study shows that a dollar invested in child care yields a greater financial return over a lifetime than any other expenditure of public funds.

Massive uptake rates

The CWELCC program committed more than $30 billion federally to support early learning and child care, with specific funds dedicated to Indigenous child care.

To date, it has created 150,000 new spaces, with a goal of creating an additional 100,000 new spaces by March 2026. All provinces and territories have participated, with uptake rates among child-care centres starting at 92 per cent in Ontario and rising higher elsewhere across the country.

Notably, the road to implementing national child care in Canada has neither been short or easy.

In 2004, Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin was unable to bring national child care to fruition, despite gaining bilateral child-care agreements with all 10 provinces.

When Stephen Harper replaced Martin in 2006, among the first acts of his Conservative government was to cancel these agreements. Instead, he offered the Universal Childcare Benefit that delivered $100 per child to parents monthly, but did nothing to address the lack of available child-care spaces.

It did, however, ensure that a rhetoric of “choice” and cash in hand for in-home care for children was prioritized over women’s equal participation in the labour market. Internationally, there is consistent evidence that care allowances offered in lieu of a publicly funded child-care services reinforce traditional gendered divisions of labour and reduce female employment rates.

All provinces/territories signed up

By contrast — and no small feat in terms of negotiation skills — Trudeau’s team was able to persuade each and every province and territory to sign an Early Learning and Child Care Agreement.

Major reductions in child-care fees for eligible families followed, with all territories and four provinces at $10-a-day as of 2024 (with New Brunswick and Alberta only slightly higher, while Nova Scotia] will be at $10-a-day as of March 1, 2026.)

Even in Ontario, where rates are higher, costs now average about $23 a day.

Trudeau managed to carry out this program by starting his efforts early in his tenure, unlike with the dental and pharmacare initiatives, and building consensus across a diverse and often contentious Canadian landscape.

Supply issues

It’s not all roses, of course. Some Canadians are frustrated about the slow expansion of subsidized child-care spaces. And the program remains plagued by serious supply (availability) issues, especially in rural and remote communities.

Early childhood educators still do not receive fair pay for the essential work they do, and staff retention is a serious issue.

But as we look towards the next federal election, Conservative Leader Pierre Polievre has had little to say about the national child-care program except for vague references to “flexibility” and a suggestion about replacing it with tax credits. This should set alarm bells ringing across the country.




Read more:
The baffling indifference of Canadian voters to child-care proposals


Fortunately, Trudeau has set up a framework that will be difficult to dismantle in the future. There has been massive buy-in from users, providers, funders and much of the general public.

We urge whoever replaces Trudeau as prime minister to highlight what’s been accomplished in child care over the last few years, and to prioritize the further expansion of the program in the years ahead.

This would be Trudeau’s proudest legacy.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Trudeau’s record may be spotty, but his biggest accomplishment was a national child-care program – https://theconversation.com/trudeaus-record-may-be-spotty-but-his-biggest-accomplishment-was-a-national-child-care-program-251318

Russia launching ‘suicide missions’ across strategic Dnipro river as pause in US aid hampers defence

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Veronika Poniscjakova, Deputy Director, Porstmouth Military Education Team, University of Portsmouth

After publicly belittling Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky in a White House meeting, Donald Trump has suspended US military aid to Ukraine and paused intelligence sharing. It is now clear that Ukraine is in trouble in both its political and military situations, and the latter will only worsen as the effects of the US aid suspension hit.

Trump’s outburst has, to some extent, reinvigorated European support for the war-torn country. But Zelensky’s recent statement that “Ukraine is ready to negotiate about an end to the conflict” suggests that he recognises how precarious the situation has become.

In Trump’s address to the US Congress on February 4, the US president welcomed this shift, and claimed that Russia was also ready for a truce.

What would a negotiated peace look like? The side that holds the upper hand, both politically and militarily, will have a stronger position at the negotiating table.

At the moment, the advantage is overwhelmingly with Russia, which is striving to press home its battlefield advantage and occupy as much territory as it can before a potential ceasefire. This is likely to mean a freezing of the conflict on its current lines of contact.

The war has now lasted more than three years, and since Ukraine’s failed summer 2023 counteroffensive, there have been no major changes on the battlefield, except for Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in August 2024. Kyiv had hoped that seizing this territory could serve as a bargaining chip in future peace negotiations.

But even this has not gone according to plan, as Russia has been steadily reclaiming the area, aided by North Korean troops.

Recent battlefield developments reaffirm the ongoing stalemate. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) (as of March 4), Russian forces continued offensives along various key strategic points in the east and south. While Russian advances continue to be slow, it’s a situation that could change quickly, particularly with the dramatic shutdown of US assistance.

One of the key areas where Russia is now putting intense pressure on Ukrainian troops is in the Kherson oblast in the south of the country. Russian forces are reportedly attempting to cross the Dnipro river, aiming to establish footholds on the west (right) bank at four locations to allow them a clear run at the strategically important port city of Kherson.

Russia has successfully negotiated river crossings during the three-year war, but this time, the situation seems more challenging. Recent reporting from the frontlines has described Russian assaults on Dnipro crossings as “suicide missions”, causing heavy Russian casualties.

A high Russian body count is nothing new in this conflict. But why is Russia willing to sacrifice so many of its soldiers, particularly when the political prospects favour Putin and the Russians?

Oleksandr Prokudin, the governor of Kherson, suggests that Russia is desperate to establish a foothold as crossing the Dnipro would open up Kherson oblast for further advances and could be used in negotiations to strengthen Russia’s claim over the entire region. The occupation of Kherson was listed by Russian defence minister, Andrei Belousov, as a key strategic goal for 2025.

Strategic barrier

Crossing the Dnipro will not be easy. Ukraine has tried and failed in the opposite direction on several occasions for example, in April and August 2023.

At that stage, as part of the (ultimately unsuccessful) spring-summer offensive, Kyiv hoped crossing the river would be a major breakthrough that would lead to easier access to Crimea. This now looks like a lost cause – at least militarily.

ISW map showing the state of the conflict in Ukraine, March 5 2024.
State of the conflict in Ukraine, March 5 2024.
Institute for the Study of War

The Dnipro is not only a natural barrier dividing the country into two parts. It’s also vital as a transport artery through the country and its dams provide energy.

Russia realises this, and it has seen the river as one of Ukraine’s “centres of gravity”. On day one of the invasion, Russian forces made a beeline for the Dnipro, crossing and taking up positions that they were later forced to abandon as Ukraine fought back.

Now, as Prokudin observed, Russia is once again throwing its troops at the river. A series of assaults in December 2024 were successfully repelled, but things have changed even in the few months since. Ukraine is in an increasingly difficult position.

Ukraine’s military is facing increasingly critical troop shortages and has a far smaller population to draw on than Russia – something which is beginning to tell.

And each day seems to bring further bad news. The US decision to pause intelligence sharing will mean its forces in the field will be virtually deaf and blind and at the mercy of Russian attacks on their positions (although there is reason to believe the pause may be reasonably shortlived).

But, with the decision to halt military aid, it’s an indication of the Trump administration’s determination to force Kyiv into a peace deal – whether or not it’s acceptable to Ukraine.

At this stage it looks almost inevitable that Ukraine will be unable to reclaim all the territory it has lost to Russia since 2014. Its best chance may be to secure what it still does control and go all-out to prevent further Russian advances. One of the ways it needs to do that right now is to ensure Russia does not establish a foothold across the Dnipro river.

The Conversation

Veronika Poniscjakova does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Russia launching ‘suicide missions’ across strategic Dnipro river as pause in US aid hampers defence – https://theconversation.com/russia-launching-suicide-missions-across-strategic-dnipro-river-as-pause-in-us-aid-hampers-defence-251439

DOGE threat: How government data would give an AI company extraordinary power

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Allison Stanger, Distinguished Endowed Professor, Middlebury

Elon Musk has simultaneous control of DOGE and his AI company xAI. AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana

The Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, has secured unprecedented access to at least seven sensitive federal databases, including those of the Internal Revenue Service and Social Security Administration. This access has sparked fears about cybersecurity vulnerabilities and privacy violations. Another concern has received far less attention: the potential use of the data to train a private company’s artificial intelligence systems.

The White House press secretary said government data that DOGE has collected isn’t being used to train Musk’s AI models, despite Elon Musk’s control over DOGE. However, evidence has emerged that DOGE personnel simultaneously hold positions with at least one of Musk’s companies.

At the Federal Aviation Administration, SpaceX employees have government email addresses. This dual employment creates a conduit for federal data to potentially be siphoned to Musk-owned enterprises, including xAI. The company’s latest Grok AI chatbot model conspicuously refuses to give a clear denial about using such data.

As a political scientist and technologist who is intimately acquainted with public sources of government data, I believe this potential transmission of government data to private companies presents far greater privacy and power implications than most reporting identifies. A private entity with the capacity to develop artificial intelligence technologies could use government data to leapfrog its competitors and wield massive influence over society.

Value of government data for AI

For AI developers, government databases represent something akin to finding the Holy Grail. While companies such as OpenAI, Google and xAI currently rely on information scraped from the public internet, nonpublic government repositories offer something much more valuable: verified records of actual human behavior across entire populations.

This isn’t merely more data – it’s fundamentally different data. Social media posts and web browsing histories show curated or intended behaviors, but government databases capture real decisions and their consequences. For example, Medicare records reveal health care choices and outcomes. IRS and Treasury data reveal financial decisions and long-term impacts. And federal employment and education statistics reveal education paths and career trajectories.

What makes this data particularly valuable for AI training is its longitudinal nature and reliability. Unlike the disordered information available online, government records follow standardized protocols, undergo regular audits and must meet legal requirements for accuracy. Every Social Security payment, Medicare claim and federal grant creates a verified data point about real-world behavior. This data exists nowhere else with such breadth and authenticity in the U.S.

Most critically, government databases track entire populations over time, not just digitally active users. They include people who never use social media, don’t shop online, or actively avoid digital services. For an AI company, this would mean training systems on the actual diversity of human experience rather than just the digital reflections people cast online.

a security guard holds out his arms as he stands in front of an older man in a business suit
A security guard prevented U.S. Sen. Edward Markey, D-Mass., from entering an EPA building on Feb. 6, 2025, to see DOGE staff working there.
Al Drago/Getty Images

The technical advantage

Current AI systems face fundamental limitations that no amount of data scraped from the internet can overcome. When ChatGPT or Google’s Gemini make mistakes, it’s often because they’ve been trained on information that might be popular but isn’t necessarily true. They can tell you what people say about a policy’s effects, but they can’t track those effects across populations and years.

Government data could change this equation. Imagine training an AI system not just on opinions about health care but on actual treatment outcomes across millions of patients. Consider the difference between learning from social media discussions about economic policies and analyzing their real impacts across different communities and demographics over decades.

A large, state-of-the-art, or frontier, model trained on comprehensive government data could understand the actual relationships between policies and outcomes. It could track unintended consequences across different population segments, model complex societal systems with real-world validation and predict the impacts of proposed changes based on historical evidence. For companies seeking to build next-generation AI systems, access to this data would create an almost insurmountable advantage.

Control of critical systems

A company like xAI could do far more with models trained on government data than building better chatbots or content generators. Such systems could fundamentally transform – and potentially control – how people understand and manage complex societal systems. While some of these capabilities could be beneficial under the control of accountable public agencies, I believe they pose a threat in the hands of a single private company.

Medicare and Medicaid databases contain records of treatments, outcomes and costs across diverse populations over decades. A frontier model trained on new government data could identify treatment patterns that succeed where others fail, and so dominate the health care industry. Such a model could understand how different interventions affect various populations over time, accounting for factors such as geographic location, socioeconomic status and concurrent conditions.

A company wielding the model could influence health care policy by demonstrating superior predictive capabilities and market population-level insights to pharmaceutical companies and insurers.

Treasury data represents perhaps the most valuable prize. Government financial databases contain granular details about how money flows through the economy. This includes real-time transaction data across federal payment systems, complete records of tax payments and refunds, detailed patterns of benefit distributions, and government contractor payments with performance metrics.

An AI company with access to this data could develop extraordinary capabilities for economic forecasting and market prediction. It could model the cascading effects of regulatory changes, predict economic vulnerabilities before they become crises, and optimize investment strategies with precision impossible through traditional methods.

Elon Musk’s xAI company is well financed.

Infrastructure and urban systems

Government databases contain information about critical infrastructure usage patterns, maintenance histories, emergency response times and development impacts. Every federal grant, infrastructure inspection and emergency response creates a data point that could help train AI to better understand how cities and regions function.

The power lies in the potential interconnectedness of this data. An AI system trained on government infrastructure records would understand how transportation patterns affect energy use, how housing policies affect emergency response times, and how infrastructure investments influence economic development across regions.

A private company with exclusive access would gain unique insight into the physical and economic arteries of American society. This could allow the company to develop “smart city” systems that city governments would become dependent on, effectively privatizing aspects of urban governance. When combined with real-time data from private sources, the predictive capabilities would far exceed what any current system can achieve.

Absolute data corrupts absolutely

A company such as xAI, with Musk’s resources and preferential access through DOGE, could surmount technical and political obstacles far more easily than competitors. Recent advances in machine learning have also reduced the burdens of preparing data for the algorithms to process, making government data a veritable gold mine – one that rightfully belongs to the American people.

The threat of a private company accessing government data transcends individual privacy concerns. Even with personal identifiers removed, an AI system that analyzes patterns across millions of government records could enable surprising capabilities for making predictions and influencing behavior at the population level. The threat is AI systems that leverage government data to influence society, including electoral outcomes.

Since information is power, concentrating unprecedented data in the hands of a private entity with an explicit political agenda represents a profound challenge to the republic. I believe that the question is whether the American people can stand up to the potentially democracy-shattering corruption such a concentration would enable. If not, Americans should prepare to become digital subjects rather than human citizens.

The Conversation

Allison Stanger receives funding from the Berkman Klein Center for Internet and Society, Harvard University.

ref. DOGE threat: How government data would give an AI company extraordinary power – https://theconversation.com/doge-threat-how-government-data-would-give-an-ai-company-extraordinary-power-250907

US trade wars with China – and how they play out in Africa

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lauren Johnston, Associate Professor, China Studies Centre, University of Sydney

Since taking office, US president Donald Trump has implemented policies that have been notably hostile towards China. They include trade restrictions. Most recently, a 20% tariff was added to all imports from China and new technological restrictions were imposed under the America First Investment Policy. This isn’t the first time US-China tensions have flared. Throughout history the relationship has been fraught by economic, military and ideological conflicts.

China-Africa scholar and economist Lauren Johnston provides insights into how these dynamics may also shape relations between Africa and China.

How has China responded to hostile US policies?

First, China tends to have a defiant official response. It expresses disappointment, then states that the US policy position is not helpful to any country or the world economy.

Second, China makes moves domestically to prioritise the interests of key, affected industries.

Third, China will sometimes impose retaliatory sanctions.

In 2018, for instance, China imposed a 25% tariff on US soybeans, a critical animal feed source. The US Department of Agriculture had to compensate US soybean farmers for their lost income.

Another example is how, following US tech sanctions, China took a more independent technology path. It has channelled billions into tech funds. The goal is to make financing available for Chinese entrepreneurs and to push technological boundaries in areas of US sanction, such as semiconductors. These efforts are backed up by subsidies and tax reductions. In some cases, the Chinese state will invest directly in tech companies.

More recently, China retaliated to the US trade war by
announcing tariffs on 80 US products. China is set to place 15% tariffs on certain energy exports, including coal, natural gas and petroleum. An additional 10% tariffs will be placed on 72 manufactured products including trucks, motor homes and agricultural machinery.

Agricultural trade has been hard hit. The day the US announced a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, China announced “an additional 15% tariff on imported chicken, wheat, corn and cotton originating from the US”. Also, “sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables and dairy products will be subject to an additional 10% tariff”.

How have these Chinese responses affected Africa?

We can’t say for certain that China’s response to US trade tensions has explicitly affected its Africa policy, but there are some notable coincidences.

Less than one month after Trump’s return to the White House in 2025, and soon after the first tariffs were slapped on China’s exports to the US, China announced new measures to foster China-Africa trade efforts. The policy package aims to “strengthen economic and trade exchanges between China and Africa.”

This is the latest in a series of Chinese actions.

In January 2018 trade hostilities began to escalate after Trump imposed a first round of tariffs on all imported washing machines and solar panels. These had an impact on China’s exports to the US.

Later the same year, China imposed 25% tariffs on US soy bean imports and took steps to reduce dependence on US agricultural products. China also took steps to expand trade with Africa, agricultural trade in particular.

In September 2018, Beijing hosted the Forum on China and Africa Cooperation summit, a triennial head of state gathering. It was announced that China would set up a China-Africa trade expo and foster deeper agricultural cooperation. In the days after the summit, China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was already acting on this. A gathering of African agricultural ministers took place in Changsha, Hunan province.

Hunan province has since taken centre stage in China-Africa relations. It’s now the host of a permanent China-Africa trade exhibition hall and a larger biennial China-Africa economic and trade exhibition (known as CAETE).

Hunan also hosts the pilot zone for In-Depth China-Africa Economic and Trade Cooperation. The zone has numerous initiatives designed to overcome obstacles to China-Africa trade and investment, like support in areas of law, technology and currency, and vocational training.

Finally, the zone is located in a bigger free-trade zone that is better connected to Africa by air, water and land corridors. African agricultural exports to China pass through Hunan, where local industry either uses these imports or distributes them across the country to retailers.

Companies in Hunan are well placed to play a key role in supporting China-Africa trade, capitalising on the opportunities left by China-US hostilities.

Hunan’s agritech giant Longping High-Tech, for instance, is investing in Tanzanian soybean farmers.

Hunan is also home to China’s construction manufacturing and electronic transportation frontier. This includes global construction giant Sany, which produces heavy industry machinery for the construction, mining and energy sectors. China’s global electronic vehicle manufacturing BYD and its electronic railway industry are also in Hunan. They have deep and increasing interests in Africa and can also support China’s key minerals and tech race with the US.

As US-China hostility enters a new era, what are the implications for China-Africa relations?

As my new working paper sets out, African countries are, for example, responding to the new opportunities from China.

At the end of 2024, while the world waited for Trump’s second coming, various African countries made moves to strengthen economic ties with China, Hunan province especially.

In December 2024, Tanzania became the first African country to open an official investment promotion office in the China-Africa Cooperation Pilot Zone in Changaha.

In November 2024, both the China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo in Africa and the China Engineering Technology Exhibition were held in Abuja, Nigeria. Equivalent events were hosted in Kenya.

Early in 2025 in Niamey, Niger, a joint pilot cooperation zone was inaugurated , and which is direct partner of the China-Africa Pilot zone in Hunan.

As China moves away from US agricultural produce, for instance, African agricultural producers can benefit. Substitute African products and potential exports will enjoy a price boost, and elevated Chinese support.

China’s newly elevated interest in African development and market potential will bring major prospects. The question will be whether African countries are ready to grasp them, and to use that potential to foster an independent development path of their own.

The Conversation

Lauren Johnston does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. US trade wars with China – and how they play out in Africa – https://theconversation.com/us-trade-wars-with-china-and-how-they-play-out-in-africa-249609

Earth’s oldest impact crater was just found in Australia – exactly where geologists hoped it would be

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Johnson, Professor, Geology, Curtin University

Shatter cones formed by the impact in the Pilbara. Tim Johnson

We have discovered the oldest meteorite impact crater on Earth, in the very heart of the Pilbara region of Western Australia. The crater formed more than 3.5 billion years ago, making it the oldest known by more than a billion years. Our discovery is published today in Nature Communications.

Curiously enough, the crater was exactly where we had hoped it would be, and its discovery supports a theory about the birth of Earth’s first continents.

The very first rocks

The oldest rocks on Earth formed more than 3 billion years ago, and are found in the cores of most modern continents. However, geologists still cannot agree how or why they formed.

Nonetheless, there is agreement that these early continents were critical for many chemical and biological processes on Earth.

Many geologists think these ancient rocks formed above hot plumes that rose from above Earth’s molten metallic core, rather like wax in a lava lamp. Others maintain they formed by plate tectonic processes similar to modern Earth, where rocks collide and push each other over and under.

Although these two scenarios are very different, both are driven by the loss of heat from within the interior of our planet.

We think rather differently.

A few years ago, we published a paper suggesting that the energy required to make continents in the Pilbara came from outside Earth, in the form of one or more collisions with meteorites many kilometres in diameter.

As the impacts blasted up enormous volumes of material and melted the rocks around them, the mantle below produced thick “blobs” of volcanic material that evolved into continental crust.

Our evidence then lay in the chemical composition of tiny crystals of the mineral zircon, about the size of sand grains. But to persuade other geologists, we needed more convincing evidence, preferably something people could see without needing a microscope.

So, in May 2021, we began the long drive north from Perth for two weeks of fieldwork in the Pilbara, where we would meet up with our partners from the Geological Survey of Western Australia (GSWA) to hunt for the crater. But where to start?

A wide view of a ruddy landscape under a blue sky with several 4WDs in the distance.
On the hunt for shatter cones in a typical Pilbara landscape with our trusted GSWA vehicles.
Chris Kirkland

A serendipitous beginning

Our first target was an unusual layer of rocks known as the Antarctic Creek Member, which crops out on the flanks of a dome some 20 kilometres in diameter. The Antarctic Creek Member is only 20 metres or so in thickness, and mostly comprises sedimentary rocks that are sandwiched between several kilometres of dark, basaltic lava.

However, it also contains spherules – droplets formed from molten rock thrown up during an impact. But these drops could have travelled across the globe from a giant impact anywhere on Earth, most likely from a crater that has now been destroyed.

After consulting the GSWA maps and aerial photography, we located an area in the centre of the Pilbara along a dusty track to begin our search. We parked the offroad vehicles and headed our separate ways across the outcrops, more in hope than expectation, agreeing to meet an hour later to discuss what we’d found and grab a bite to eat.

A dirt track winding up the side of a hill.
Large hut-like shatter cones in the rocks of the Antarctic Creek Member at the discovery site. The rocks on the hilltop farthest left are basalts that lay directly over the shatter cones.
Tim Johnson

Remarkably, when we returned to the vehicle, we all thought we’d found the same thing: shatter cones.

Shatter cones are beautiful, delicate branching structures, not dissimilar to a badminton shuttlecock. They are the only feature of shock visible to the naked eye, and in nature can only form following a meteorite impact.

Conical red rocks in a ruddy landscape with hills in the distance.
An approximately one metre tall shatter cone ‘hut’, with the rolling hills of the Pilbara in the background.
Chris Kirkland

Little more than an hour into our search, we had found precisely what we were looking for. We had literally opened the doors of our 4WDs and stepped onto the floor of a huge, ancient impact crater.

Frustratingly, after taking some photographs and grabbing a few samples, we had to move on to other sites, but we determined to return as soon as possible. Most importantly, we needed to know how old the shatter cones were. Had we discovered the oldest known crater on Earth?

It turned out that we had.

There and back again

With some laboratory research under our belts, we returned to the site in May 2024 to spend ten days examining the evidence in more detail.

Shatter cones were everywhere, developed throughout most of the Antarctic Creek Member, which we traced for several hundred metres into the rolling hills of the Pilbara.

Our observations showed that above the layer with the shatter cones was a thick layer of basalt with no evidence of impact shock. This meant the impact had to be the same age as the Antarctic Member rocks, which we know are 3.5 billion years old.

Close-up of a red rock with lines across its surface.
Delicate shatter cones within rocks typical of the Antarctic Creek Member.
Tim Johnson

We had our age, and the record for the oldest impact crater on Earth. Perhaps our ideas regarding the ultimate origin of the continents were not so mad, as many told us.

Serendipity is a marvellous thing. As far as we knew, other than the Traditional Owners, the Nyamal people, no geologist had laid eyes on these stunning features since they formed.

Like some others before us, we had argued that meteorite impacts played a fundamental role in the geological history of our planet, as they clearly had on our cratered Moon and on other planets, moons and asteroids. Now we and others have the chance to test these ideas based on hard evidence.

Who knows how many ancient craters lay undiscovered in the ancient cores of other continents? Finding and studying them will transform our understanding of the early Earth and the role of giant impacts, not only in the formation of the landmasses on which we all live, but in the origins of life itself.

The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Earth’s oldest impact crater was just found in Australia – exactly where geologists hoped it would be – https://theconversation.com/earths-oldest-impact-crater-was-just-found-in-australia-exactly-where-geologists-hoped-it-would-be-250921

Grattan on Friday: Anthony Albanese beset by disruptors, from Cyclone Alfred to Donald Trump

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Issues sometimes “come at you”, Anthony Albanese declared on Thursday at the end of a news conference, held at Canberra’s National Situation Room, about Cyclone Alfred.

The cyclone is a disaster for millions of people in its path. For the prime minister, it is a major political disruptor.

Albanese cancelled his visit to Western Australia: he’d wanted to be there when Labor has its anticipated certain win at Saturday’s election.

His own election planning – which seemed headed for an April 12 election called this weekend – has been thrown into some disarray (although this is contested by those involved).

Then there was the good news that was crowded out. Wednesday’s national accounts finally showed some of the much hoped-for positive trends, especially an end to the per capita recession, which had been running for seven consecutive quarters. But with the cyclone naturally dominating attention, who noticed?

Albanese’s response to the new circumstances was to place himself at the centre of the planning for the cyclone. He stood side by side with Queensland Premier David Crisafulli at his news conference on Wednesday and was early to the Situation Room on Thursday morning, promising to give regular updates.

To questions about whether he’d abandoned any thought of calling an election at the weekend, the PM insisted (unconvincingly) that politics was furthest from his mind. Though announcing an election would appear near impossible in the circumstances, and attention had already begun turning to a May date (and a budget beforehand), Albanese on Thursday wouldn’t be drawn. Basically, he was waiting to see what happened with the weather.

The cyclone will be a passing disruptor. The disruption from the Trump administration will be with Australia (and the world) for the foreseeable future.

Next week Australia will know whether its intense lobbying for an exemption from the US tariffs on aluminium and steel has been effective. Those around the government are not optimistic.

More concerning than the immediate impact on Australia if we fail to win the exemption is the effect of US protectionism more generally.

Reserve Bank deputy Governor Andrew Hauser confirmed this week that “from a macroeconomic perspective, Australia’s direct exposure to US tariffs levied on our exports is limited”.

“[But] Australia is heavily integrated into, and reliant on, the global economy more broadly – and particularly China. Hence the bigger macroeconomic risk for us would be if the imposition of US tariffs on third countries triggered a global trade war that impaired our trade and financial linkages more broadly.

“As Australia’s long history has shown, we thrive when trade, labour and assets flow freely in the global economy, but we suffer when countries turn inwards.”

How disruptive this new world will be to the Australian economy can’t be known but it could make things very difficult for a second term Albanese government or a first term Dutton one.

As Trump tries to force a settlement on Ukraine, there’s been increasing attention on the Europeans’ plans to boost their defence expenditure. This week, we started to feel the heat on Australia to do the same.

Trump’s nominee for Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Elbridge Colby told the US Senate Committee on Armed Services, in a written answer during his confirmation hearing, that “Australia is a core U.S. ally. […] The main concern the United States should press with Australia, consistent with the President’s approach, is higher defense spending. Australia is currently well below the 3% level advocated for by NATO Secretary General Rutte, and Canberra faces a far more powerful challenge in China.”

Presently Australia’s defence spending is about 2% of GDP, projected to increase to 2.4% by 2033–34.The Coalition has said it would spend more than Labor (but has not specified how much more).

Defence Minister Richard Marles said he could “obviously understand the US administration seeking for its friends and allies around the world to do more. That’s a conversation that we will continue to have with the US administration. […] But it’s really important to understand we are increasing that spending right now.”

It’s also important to understand that if Australia must ramp up defence further or faster than present plans, that will suck funds from other priorities, putting another squeeze on future governments.

Trump’s bullying of Ukraine and its leader Volodymyr Zelensky has not weakened the bipartisan support in Australia for Ukraine.

But a difference has emerged over whether Australia should (if asked) take part in any peacekeeping force. Peter Dutton said this role should be left to the Europeans. But Albanese flagged his government would consider it, pointing to the many other peacekeeping operations we have participated in.

Former prime minister Scott Morrison got on well with Trump during the president’s first term and has become even more signed up since. The Morrisons were at Mar-a-Lago for New Year’s eve.

Morrison was distinctly sympathetic to Trump’s approach when talking this week about Ukraine. He told an Australian Financial Review dinner, “Do we just keep fighting this war every day? The alternative is to find a peace that can be secured.

“There was no conversation, no real conversation, about peace in Ukraine up until now.” Zelensky had the “most to gain” from negotiating to end the war, he said.

Morrison is affiliated with lobbying firm American Global Strategies, which has links to the Trump administration. Colby is listed as a senior adviser. The chairman and founder of the group, Robert C. O’Brien, was formerly a national security adviser to Trump.

Morrison is one of a number of former senior Australian political figures who have a current professional or commercial lock-in to Washington politics.

Former Liberal treasurer Joe Hockey, who was close to the Trump White House when Hockey was ambassador in 2016-20, is founder and global president of Bondi Partners, a lobbying firm that operates between the US and Australia.

Another former Australian ambassador to Washington, Arthur Sinodinos, is based in Washington as a partner in the Asia Group, a strategic advisory firm.

Meanwhile former PM Kevin Rudd, as Australian ambassador in Washington, is trying to amplify Australia’s official voice with the administration.

Speculation continues about Rudd’s future if the government changed. Dutton says that would depend on how effective Rudd was, saying his present instinct would be leave him in the job.

Others are sceptical this would happen, and raise Morrison’s name as a possible replacement. Morrison has reportedly told people he would not want the post. But you couldn’t rule it out.

The Conversation

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Grattan on Friday: Anthony Albanese beset by disruptors, from Cyclone Alfred to Donald Trump – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-anthony-albanese-beset-by-disruptors-from-cyclone-alfred-to-donald-trump-251258

Can the UK prime minister make liberal democracies great again?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ben Wellings, Associate Professor in Politics and International Relations, Monash University

There’s been some “great television” this past week for those who like to watch the end of the West.

The US president and vice-president effectively sided with Russia in an attempt to bring the war in Ukraine to an end in a way that benefits a) the United States, b) the US president’s vanity, and c) Vladimir Putin.

Starmer and post-Brexit Britain

But every crisis also provides an opportunity. The UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, grasped the chance to slough off his uninspiring domestic image as he sought to keep the US engaged in negotiations and preserve a semblance of Ukrainian sovereignty.

In truth, Starmer’s diplomacy continues the policy of the previous government, which made Ukraine the crucible for Britain’s post-Brexit reintegration into European diplomacy.

Since the Russian invasion of 2022, Britain distinguished itself as one of Ukraine’s most vociferous backers. It provided strident rhetorical support alongside around £13 billion in aid since the conflict began.

Like his predecessors, Starmer’s support for Ukraine has offered respite from domestic challenges. His recent advocacy has led to a three-month high in the polls, albeit with a still dismal net approval rating of -28.

But we shouldn’t be overly cynical. His government has provided us with a framework to understand its approach. According to the doctrine of Progressive Realism, the UK government’s foreign policy reflects a “tough-minded” assessment of Britain’s position within the balance of power as it pursues enlightened ends.

The initial fit is evident: throughout his advocacy, Starmer’s continued appeals for a US backstop indicate awareness of British limitations while championing Ukrainian self-determination.

However, increasing Britain’s military budget to counter Russia at the expense of the country’s overseas aid budget is hardly progressive, as both Starmer and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy have previously noted. Most recently, in Lammy’s case, this concerned Trump’s cuts to USAID last month.

To his credit, Starmer has recognised that Britain cannot deter Russia alone, and is assembling a “coalition of the willing”. However, even with France and smaller players such as the Scandinavians, Canadians and Australians, this may well be insufficient. Hence the ongoing appeals to the US for security guarantees that it is clearly unwilling to provide.

If we accept Einstein’s famous definition of insanity as doing the same thing and expecting different results, how should we interpret Starmer’s plans?

Continuities and change

Amid all the crisis diplomacy and commentary suggesting this might be the end of the trans-Atlantic alliance, continuity as well as change can be observed.

One of the most striking examples is the extent to which Starmer emphasises Britain’s longstanding self-perception as a “bridge” between the US and Europe. While recent turmoil has prompted Germany’s new Chancellor Friedrich Merz to declare the need for strategic independence from the US, Starmer continues to depict the US as the “indispensable” ally with whom Britain must strengthen ties.

Considered alongside Britain’s deep integration in the US’s defence and intelligence architecture, including through AUKUS – with which Trump seemed unfamiliar – it is unlikely Britain will break with America. In fact, it may even strengthen its relationship if Trump’s remarks about a UK-US trade agreement are to be believed.

For some, these structural explanations suffice when considering Britain’s commitment to the “special relationship” and its identity as the transatlantic bridge. However, psychological factors are also worth considering. Britain’s relationship with the US has been a crucial element of Britain’s pretensions to global leadership since the second world war.

The uncomfortable truth about bridges is that they get walked over, as was evident when Starmer was blindsided by the US decision to suspend military aid to Ukraine.

Europe between the US and Russia

With regard to Europe, it is another case of “plus ça change”. As in 1945, Europe again finds itself caught in the middle between Russia and the US. Critics might say the Europeans should have seen this coming.

Following the 2022 invasion, Germany, Europe’s most significant economy, proclaimed the moment as one of Zeitenwende, or a “turning point”. However, it subsequently failed to fully substantiate the claim.

Recently, President of the European Commission and former German Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen has proposed a “Rearm Europe Plan” that could see up to €800 billion (A$1.36 trillion) allocated to European defence. Whether this materialises remains to be seen.

France has sought to assume its traditional leading role in advocating for Europe’s strategic autonomy from the US. President Emmanuel Macron has been a prominent figure, but his plan for a partial one-month truce has garnered only lukewarm support.

However, Putin and Trump do have their admirers in Europe. What is perhaps surprising is that some of this has been too much even for the radical right to stomach – Nigel Farage, for example, leaped to Britain’s defence after Vance’s disparaging remarks. This only underscores the differences in attitudes towards Ukraine between MAGA Americans and Europeans.

Starmer has undoubtedly secured diplomatic plaudits. However, the structural forces at play suggest that his “coalition of the willing”, if it sticks to outdated ideas, will struggle to make liberal democracy great again, much as that is needed.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Can the UK prime minister make liberal democracies great again? – https://theconversation.com/can-the-uk-prime-minister-make-liberal-democracies-great-again-251360

The morning after: here’s what to do once Cyclone Alfred has passed

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yetta Gurtner, Adjunct Senior Lecturer, Centre for Disaster Studies, James Cook University

Cyclone Alfred is due to cross the coast of southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales late on Friday night or early Saturday morning. Millions of people may wake to a giant mess, if they get any sleep at all.

So how do you stay safe while you begin the clean up and recovery? It can be helpful to have a plan of action ready, before the time comes.

First, be prepared to stay inside for a day or so, even after the wild weather has passed. You may have to manage without essential services for a while. And there are several important steps to take before venturing outside.

I have 20 years’ experience in disaster studies, including how communities can recover. Here’s what you need to know about surviving the morning after Cyclone Alfred.

Before you leave your safe room

Say you’ve chosen to “shelter in place”, in the safest room in the house. That’s the smallest room with the fewest windows – usually a bathroom, in a hall or a room under the stairs.

Do not leave this room until you have been told it’s safe to do so by authorities. Even after the storm has passed, the wind gusts can be very unpredictable. Depending on your location, floodwater may still be a threat.

If you still have access to the internet, check the digital disaster dashboard online. In Queensland, every council has their own disaster dashboard. New South Wales has the Hazards Near Me app.

Tune into your local ABC radio station for official emergency updates, warnings and advice. Make sure you have
spare batteries and even a backup AM-FM radio. Try to minimise use of your mobile phone to conserve battery power and network capacity. SMS/text messages are more likely to get through than phone calls.

While you wait for normal services to resume

After the cyclone there may be no power, internet, mobile telephone reception or water supply to your home. This may persist for some time.

Ahead of the cyclone, try to store enough drinking water to provide three litres per person for several days (don’t forget water for your pets). Store water in bottles in the freezer – it keeps it cool if the power goes out and can be drinking water when it melts. You also need extra water for hygiene, cleaning up and toileting. Fill your bathtub or top-loading washing machine with water before the storm approaches.

During a flood, sewage may come up through the toilet and the drains of dwellings on the ground level. Before the cyclone, cover your drains with plastic sheeting with a sandbag on top for weight. Place a plastic bag full of sand inside the toilet to form a plug and close the seat. Consider a bucket as a short-term option for toileting.

Wait for flood waters to recede before unsealing the toilet. When the storm has passed, check local council advice on whether the sewage system is functioning before attempting to flush the toilet again.

If the power has been out your fridge can remain cool, however food inside may no longer be safe to eat. If items in your freezer have started to defrost, either cook immediately or dispose of them. Some medicines requiring refrigeration will also have to be thrown out.

Don’t use electric appliances if they are wet and check for any potential gas leaks from gas appliances before use.

Severe Weather Update 6 March 2025: Tropical Cyclone Alfred moving more slowly towards the coast.

Contact your insurance provider immediately

If you are likely to make an insurance claim, contact your insurer straight away for advice.

The insurance company will probably ask for your policy number. Try to have it (and other important documents) on hand – perhaps in a waterproof wallet, or as photos on your phone.

Don’t go straight into clean up and recovery mode until you have checked their requirements. Ripping up wet carpets and throwing out your belongings may not be consistent with your insurance policy. Disposing of proof of damage may cause your claim to be rejected.

Approaches vary between insurance companies. They may require photographs or a written inventory of damaged items. For instance, floodwater will often leave a high-water mark on the walls. Take a photo with a ruler or bottle for reference. The more you can document, the less the insurance company can dispute.

Before you head outside

Don’t leave your house until officials say it is safe to do so.

If you have it, put on protective clothing and equipment including fully covered shoes, gloves, glasses, and an N95 mask. Wear a hat, long pants and long sleeves.

Keep your children and pets secure inside for as long as you can, until you know the area is safe and clear.

Switch off your electricity, gas and solar system prior to severe weather. Before switching everything back on, check your house and appliances for any obvious damage. Then check with your utility service provider that all is in order.

Even if your house is without power, downed power lines may be live. Do not touch them, even if only wanting to move them. Call 000 if it is life threatening, or contact your local energy provider.

Check for obvious structural damage to the house such as broken windows, water leaks or damaged roofs (such as missing tiles or screws). Beware of fallen or windswept debris and broken glass.

Look out for wildlife and pests, including venomous snakes and spiders. Don’t poke anything to check if it’s alive.

Before you start cleaning up

Wear protective gear when dealing with water-damaged goods and mud. Don’t touch your face at all and if you can, wear a protective N95 mask.

The mud and dirty water may be contaminated, so be sure to disinfect and wash your hands thoroughly.

If you have cuts and scrapes, disinfect and cover them immediately, because there’s a high chance of infection.

Following floods in Northern Queensland this year, 16 people died after being infected with melioidosis, a bacterium found in mud. The bug is more prevalent after heavy rainfall. If you feel unwell, seeking medical advice.

Mould is another big issue after heavy rain and flooding. Open your windows to ventilate.

Before you venture further afield

Resist the urge to go sightseeing. Check on your neighbours and vulnerable community members neighbours instead.

Talk to friends, family, neighbours and contacts about how you’re feeling. Be honest. It’s perfectly normal to feel anxious and upset after a disaster event.

If you need extra assistance, seek help. Community recovery hubs will be set up and they will have a list of telephone numbers for support. Use the services available.

Check your local disaster dashboard or app for up-to-date information on road closures, evacuation centres, and other emergency details.

Yetta Gurtner has received funding in the past from the Bureau of Meteorology. She is a community engagement officer with the Queensland State Emergency Services.

ref. The morning after: here’s what to do once Cyclone Alfred has passed – https://theconversation.com/the-morning-after-heres-what-to-do-once-cyclone-alfred-has-passed-251602

Bell Shakespeare brings vitality and cracking pace to Henry 5

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kirk Dodd, Lecturer in English and Writing, University of Sydney

Brett Boardman/Bell Shakespeare

Shakespeare’s Henry V (stylised by Bell Shakespeare as Henry 5) is famous for many things. Henry’s rousing speeches. Its chorus directly addressing the audience. Its critical treatment of war. Its comic characters like Fluellen. And the comic exchanges between the French Princess and her maid Alice, trying to speak English.

For theatre directors, these each serve as different tracks in a mixing deck that can be dialled up or down to temper the treatment of the play.

Director Marion Potts is a master of this art, bringing vitality and a cracking pace to a big play delivered in less than two hours.

A world at war

The play extends the life of Prince Hal from the Henry IV plays. He has forsaken the Boar’s Head Tavern and rejected his friendship with Falstaff, emerging as a politically astute King Henry V: a valiant monarch who will ultimately lead his depleted army to victory over the French at Azincourt.

This play begins with Henry (JK Kazzi) seeking rightful justifications for his plans to invade France from the Archbishop of Canterbury (Jo Turner). This involves a lengthy speech by Canterbury about detailed legalities; Turner transforms this into a comic tour de force.

The archbishop could justify just about anything. This brings early and unexpected laughter, but allows the spirit of Shakespeare to shine too, who seems to be showing us the absurdities of war: how quickly politics can be moulded to subjective aims.

Our world, and the world of our children, continues to be at war. Shakespeare’s canon offers cathartic ways of reflecting on troubled times within the safety of the theatre.

No specific war is directly paralleled – although the pluck of Zelensky might be echoed in Henry’s costume.
Brett Boardman/Bell Shakespeare

Thankfully, no specific war is directly paralleled – although the pluck of Volodymyr Zelensky might be echoed in Henry’s costume (t-shirts, sports jacket, cargo pants). Zelensky’s ethos seems to share some of the youth and people’s touch possessed by King Henry. And Zelensky was recently required to defend his dress code as a leader who remains at war, stating: “I will wear [a] costume after this war will finish”.

Costumes by Anna Tregloan distribute similar tones across the English and French soldiers, refreshingly devoid of khaki garb. These emphasise the youth of the armies, dressed in streetwear with guerilla flair, sporting boxing boots.

The prominence of body training throughout serves as an expression of youth and a perpetual readying for conflict.

Potts states in the program:

the world of our production carries the vestiges of wars past and the seeds of those to come. A world either in perpetual ‘training’ for wars or delivering on its brutal promise.

Exposing vulnerabilities

Nothing is lost in the clarity of the performances, which bring a vocal muscle to Shakespeare’s lines.

Kazzi is charismatic as the leading man, using fervency and understatement. His first set-piece, urging his troops with “Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more!” stays low, to use a term from cricket, and could be pitched higher in its emphatic urgings, but Kazzi finds excellent range thereafter.

Kazzi, as Henry, finds excellent range in his performance.
Brett Boardman/Bell Shakespeare

The neat set ploy of using a chair and microphone at which various characters sit to deliver the chorus sections works very well with Jethro Woodward’s sound design.

Perhaps emulating a battleground tribunal, the microphone connected us intimately with individual characters. Westmoreland (Alex Kirwan), the King’s dutiful mate, opens the show with “O for a muse of fire!”, quite articulately from a soldier unaccustomed to public speaking.

Exeter (Ella Prince) is a warrior amused by all the fuss. English soldiers (Rishab Kern and Harrison Mills) show sensitivity and convey the vulnerabilities of war. And the duo of French Princess Katherine (Ava Madon) and her warm and vibrant attendant, Alice (Odile Le Clezio), hit perfect moments of comic relief as two French women rehearsing the English language.

Political rhetoric

The play is otherwise stripped of several comic characters (you won’t see the Welshman Fluellen, or Bardolph, or Pistol on stage), permitting its speedy run with a relentless focus on the war. This breach is filled by the comic subplot of Alice and Princess Katherine, preparing for the outcome of the conflict.

The movable scaffold of the main set (Tregloan) proves surprisingly versatile, especially with atmospheric lighting and blackouts (Verity Hampson).

Potts’ use of a screen for subtitles allows her to daringly translate Shakespeare’s lines, so French characters speak mostly French. The musicality of the French language adds ardour and humour, while emphasising the cultural divide of the two warring nations.

Henry V is a play renowned for showing King Henry as a shrewd leader who must achieve great victories for his country, even by committing war crimes.

Henry V shows King Henry as a shrewd leader who must achieve great victories, even by committing war crimes.
Brett Boardman/Bell Shakespeare

While Henry’s threats of the worst kinds of violence against women and children can be framed as political rhetoric (using harsh words to bring about peaceful ends), he strategically commands the slaying of prisoners when outnumbered by the French.

While war crimes were beginning to be codified in Shakespeare’s day, he seems to suggest true war heroes are rare, while innocent victims are common.

Potts’ re-construal of the final scene, often a clumsy betrothal between Henry and Katherine, is made more uncomfortable as Henry flippantly repeats his relentless design to marry her, despite her protestations. While royal weddings were often political instruments at the time, it all seems to be a hollow victory for Henry, who seems suddenly too shell-shocked to care anymore for the rich realm he fought to posses.

Henry 5, from Bell Shakespeare, is at the Sydney Opera House until April 5, then touring to Wollongong, Canberra and Melbourne.

Kirk Dodd does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Bell Shakespeare brings vitality and cracking pace to Henry 5 – https://theconversation.com/bell-shakespeare-brings-vitality-and-cracking-pace-to-henry-5-249152

Union wary of Canadian billionaire Jim Grenon’s NZ media influence

By Susan Edmunds, RNZ News money correspondent

The Aotearoa New Zealand union representing many of NZME’s journalists says it is “deeply worried” by a billionaire’s plans to take over its board.

Auckland-based Canadian billionaire Jim Grenon is leading a move to dump the board of media company NZME, owners of The New Zealand Herald and NewsTalk ZB.

He has told the company’s board he wants to remove most of the current directors, replace them with himself and three others, and choose one existing director to stay on.

He took a nearly 10 percent stake in the business earlier in the week.

Michael Wood, negotiation specialist at E tū, the union that represents NZME’s journalists, said he had grave concerns.

“We see a pattern that has been incredibly unhealthy in other countries, of billionaire oligarchs moving into media ownership roles to be able to promote their own particular view of the word,” he said.

“Secondly, we have a situation here where when Mr Grenon purchased holdings in NZME he was at pains to make it sound like an innocent manoeuvre with no broader agenda . . .  within a few days he is aggressively pursuing board positions.”

What unsaid agendas?
Wood said Grenon had a track record of trying to influence media discourse in New Zealand.

“We are deeply concerned about this, about what unsaid agendas lie behind a billionaire oligarch trying to take ownership of one of our biggest media companies.”

Canadian billionaire James Grenon . . . track record of trying to influence media discourse in New Zealand. Image: TOM Capital Management/RNZ

“We are deeply concerned about this, about what unsaid agendas lie behind a billionaire oligarch trying to take ownership of one of our biggest media companies.”

He said it would be important for New Zealand not to follow the example of the US, where media outlets had become “the mouthpiece for the rich and powerful”.

E tū would consult its national delegate committee of journalists, he said.

Grenon has been linked with alternative news sites, including The Centrist, serving as the company’s director up to August 2023.

The Centrist claims to present under-served perspectives and reason-based analysis, “even if it might be too hot for the mainstream media to handle”.

Grenon has been approached for comment by RNZ.

Preoccupations with trans rights, treaty issues
Duncan Greive, founder of The Spinoff and media commentator, said he was a reader of Grenon’s site The Centrist.

“The main thing we know about him is that publication,” Greive said.

“It’s largely news aggregation but it has very specific preoccupations around trans rights, treaty issues and particularly vaccine injury and efficacy.

“A lot of the time it’s aggregating from mainstream news sites but there’s a definite feel that things are under-covered or under-emphasised at mainstream news organisations.

“If he is looking to gain greater control and exert influence on the publishing and editorial aspects of the business, you’ve got to think there is a belief that those things are under-covered and the editorial direction of The Herald isn’t what he would like it to be.”

The Spinoff founder and media commentator Duncan Greive . . . Investors “would be excited about the sale of OneRoof”. Image: RNZ News

Greive said the move could be connected to the NZME announcement in its annual results that it was exploring options for the sale of its real estate platform OneRoof.

“There are a lot of investors who believe OneRoof is being held back by proximity to the ‘legacy media’ assets of NZME and if it could be pulled out of there the two businesses would be more valuable separate than together.

“If you look at the shareholder book of NZME, you don’t image a lot of these institutional investors who hold the bulk of the shares are going to be as excited about editorial direction and issues as Grenon would be . . .  but they would be excited about the sale of OneRoof.”

Wanting the publishing side
Greive said he could imagine a scenario where Grenon told shareholders he wanted the publishing side, at a reduced value, and the OneRoof business could be separated off.

“From a pure value realisation, maximisation of shareholder value point of view, that makes sense to me.”

Greive said attention would now go on the 37 percent of shareholders whom Grenon said had been consulted in confidence about his plans.

“It will become clear pretty quickly and they will be under pressure to say why they are involved in this and it will become clear pretty quickly whether my theory is correct.”

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

How are scientists tracking Cyclone Alfred?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sanjeev Kumar Srivastava, Associate Professor of Geospatial Analysis, University of the Sunshine Coast

Tropical Cyclone Alfred is now expected to make landfall early on Saturday morning – later than initial estimates that suggested it would strike southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales on Friday.

So, how do scientists track cyclones and make predictions about when and where they will hit?

I’m a geospatial analyst who uses satellites and other remote-sensing technology for natural resources management. I study data about storms, wildfires and vegetation regrowth around the world.

Remote-sensing satellites travel through space collecting data about Earth’s surface and atmosphere.

When it comes to cyclones, information these satellites collect about clouds, temperatures, wind speeds and other variables is crucial. It helps scientists make accurate weather predictions – enabling communities to prepare and protect themselves.

Geostationary satellites

Remote sensing refers to technology that gathers information from a distance.

Remote-sensing satellites move with the Earth. They observe the same hemisphere constantly and send real-time images back to scientists on the ground. The main ones we use in Australia are called Himawari-8 and -9, and they were launched by the Japan Meteorological Agency.

As reported by the ABC, Himawari-9 captured images showing how Cyclone Alfred travelled down the coast of Queensland earlier this week and then headed toward Brisbane.

Himawari satellites images show how Cyclone Alfred has moved along its path.

Geostationary remote sensing satellites are excellent at helping us detect:

  • the centres of tropical cyclones over the ocean
  • developing thunderstorms
  • volcanic material in the atmosphere and
  • how clouds are moving.

Himawari collects images and information from the visible and infrared spectrum. This can give us cloud temperature, which can provide more precise information about where the eye of a cyclone is (the eye tends to have a higher temperature).

Polar-orbiting satellites

Polar-orbiting satellites move across the Earth north to south, and pass close to the poles.

They collect information at various intervals and send it back to Earth. Well-known polar orbiting satellites include Landsat 8-9 (run by the US Geological Survey), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Joint Polar Satellite System.

The polar-orbiting satellites give us clear images but not very often. They are just snapshots. They are more useful for providing post-cyclone damage assessments than they are for predicting the path of cyclones.

Valuable images, and data in the visible, infrared, and microwave range

Both geostationary and polar orbiting satellites collect data in the visible and infrared regions. There are polar satellites collecting data in the microwave range.

This means we can look at Earth through the cloud, get cloud temperature information and wind direction.

In addition to these satellites, the Bureau of Meteorology have their own weather watch radar sensors on the ground. These ground-based radar are set up at various locations and can detect moisture very easily, which helps us work out how moisture is moving into and through clouds.

Cyclone Alfred is currently shaping up to be a category two cyclone. This means once it makes landfall, it would have an average wind speed of between 89 and 117 kilometres an hour, and gusts between 125 and 164 kilometres an hour.

Wind speed is predicted using complex algorithms.

Why do predictions sometimes change?

Meteorology is a very complex area of science and predictions are based on many, many different data points.

Sometimes a cyclone’s path will deviate from initial projections, but this is very normal. It’s really hard to predict the future track of a cyclone!

This is particularly true when cyclones form over the Coral Sea, as in the case of Alfred. There, cyclones paths are among the most unpredictable in the world.

Sometimes unexpected factors may arise. For example, a recently arrived low pressure system in the west is currently slowing down the arrival of Cyclone Alfred.

Despite cyclone predictions being difficult, the Bureau of Meteorology is the most reliable and up-to-date source of information on Cyclone Alfred.

Sanjeev Kumar Srivastava has received funding in the past from the Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research, various local councils and several cooperative research centres. He is a member of Earth Observation Australia.

ref. How are scientists tracking Cyclone Alfred? – https://theconversation.com/how-are-scientists-tracking-cyclone-alfred-251611

Cyclone Alfred is slowing – and that could make it more destructive. Here’s how climate change might have influenced it

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Liz Ritchie-Tyo, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Monash University

Cyclone Alfred has now been delayed, as the slow-moving system stalls in warm seas off southeast Queensland. Unfortunately, the expected slow pace of the cyclone will bring even more rain to affected communities.

This is because it will linger for longer over the same location, dumping more rain before it moves on. Alfred’s slowing means the huge waves triggered by the cyclone will last longer too, likely making coastal erosion and flooding worse.

Cyclone Alfred is unusual – the first cyclone in half a century to come this far south and make expected landfall.

When unusual disasters strike, people naturally want to know what role climate change played – a process known as “climate attribution”. Unfortunately, this process takes time if you want details on a specific event.

We can’t yet say if Alfred’s unusual path and slow speed are linked to climate change. But climate change is driving very clear trends which can load the dice for more intense cyclones arriving in subtropical regions. These include the warm waters which fuel cyclones spreading further south, and cyclones dumping more rain than they used to.

So, let’s unpick what’s driving Cyclone Alfred’s behaviour – including the potential role of climate change.




Read more:
Cyclone Alfred is bearing down. Here’s how it grew so fierce – and where it’s expected to hit


A Bureau of Meteorology update on Cyclone Alfred dated Thursday, March 6.

Not necessarily climate linked: Alfred’s southerly path

Many cyclones make it as far south as Brisbane – but they’re nearly all far out at sea. Weather patterns mean most cyclones heading south are diverted to the east, where remnants can hit New Zealand as large extratropical storms.

The fact that Alfred is set to make landfall is very unusual. But we can’t yet definitively say this is due to climate change. Cyclones are steered by winds and weather patterns, and the Coral Sea’s complex weather makes cyclone paths here very hard to predict.

Alfred’s abrupt westward shift is due to a large region of high pressure to its south, which has pushed it directly towards heavily populated areas of southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales. These steering winds are not very strong, which is why Alfred is moving slowly.

In 2014, researchers showed cyclones are reaching their maximum intensity in areas further south in the southern hemisphere and north in the northern hemisphere than they used to. In 2021, researchers also found cyclones were reaching their maximum intensity closer to coasts, moving about 30 km closer per decade.

Climate link: Warmer seas

Cyclones typically need water temperatures of 26.5°C or more to form.

More than 90% of all extra heat trapped by greenhouse gas emissions is stored in the seas. The oceans are the hottest on record, and records keep falling. But normal seasonal variability and shifting ocean currents are still at work too, and we can get unusually warm waters without climate change as a cause.

What we do know is that ocean temperatures around much of Australia have been unusually warm.

The northeastern Coral Sea, where Cyclone Alfred formed, experienced the fourth-hottest temperatures on record for February and the hottest on record for January.

In the Coral Sea, sea surface temperatures were the fourth highest on record in February 2025 and the highest on record in January 2025. This figure shows the trend over time for February.
Bureau of Meteorology, CC BY-NC-ND

We also know Australia’s southern waters are warming up too.

The energy available to power tropical cyclones in subtropical regions has also increased in recent decades, due largely to rising ocean temperatures.

Average sea surface temperatures in central and southern Queensland on Thursday March 6th. Point Danger is on the Gold Coast.
Bureau of Meteorology, CC BY-NC-ND

Climate link: Fewer cyclones but more likely to be intense

In the northern hemisphere, researchers have found a trend towards fewer cyclones over time. But of those which do form, a higher proportion are more intense.

It’s not fully clear if the same trend exists in the southern hemisphere, though we are seeing fewer cyclones forming over time.

This summer, eight tropical cyclones have formed in Australian waters. Six were classified as severe (category 3 and up). Historically, Australia has experienced a higher proportion of category 1 and 2 cyclones, which bring weaker wind speeds.

On average, we see about 11 cyclones form and 4-5 make landfall. There has been a downward trend in the number of cyclones forming in the Australian region in recent decades.

Fewer cyclones, but more likely to be intense: this figure shows the number of severe (Category 3 and up) and non-severe tropical cyclones (Category 1 and 2) since 1970/71.
Bureau of Meteorology, CC BY-NC-ND

Climate link: Cyclones dumping more rain

The intensity of a cyclone refers to the speed of the wind and size of the wind-affected area.

But a cyclone’s rain field is also important. This refers to the area of heavy rain produced by storms when they’re at cyclone intensity and afterwards as they decay into tropical lows.

The rate of rainfall brought by cyclones in Australia isn’t necessarily increasing, but more cyclones are moving slowly, such as Alfred. This means more rain per cyclone, on average.

Rising ocean temperatures mean more water evaporates off the sea surface, meaning forming cyclones can absorb more moisture and dump more rain when it reaches land.

Why are cyclones slowing down? This is likely because air current circulation in the tropics has weakened. This has a clear link to climate change. Wind speeds have fallen 5 to 15% in the tropics, depending on where you are in the world. It’s hard to pinpoint the change clearly in our region, because the historic record of cyclone tracks isn’t very long.

For every degree (°C) of warming, rainfall intensity increases 7%. This is well established. But newer research is showing the rate may actually be double this or even higher, as the process of condensation releases heat which can trigger more rain.

Clear climate link: Bigger storm surges due to sea level rise

Sea levels are on average about 20 centimetres higher than they were before 1880.

When a cyclone is about to make landfall, its intense winds push up a body of seawater ahead of it – the storm surge. In low lying areas, this can spill out and flood streets.

Because climate change is causing baseline sea levels to rise, storm surges can reach further inland. Sea-level rise will also make coastal erosion more destructive.

What should we take from this?

We can’t say definitively that climate change is behind Cyclone Alfred’s unusual track.

But factors such as rising sea levels, slower cyclones and warmer oceans are changing how cyclones behave and the damage they can do.

Over time, we can expect to see cyclones arriving in regions not historically affected – and carrying more rain when they arrive.

Liz Ritchie-Tyo receives funding from The Australian Research Council and the U.S. Office of Naval Research

Andrew Dowdy receives funding from University of Melbourne as well as supported through the Australian Research Council.

Hamish Ramsay receives funding from the Australian Climate Service.

ref. Cyclone Alfred is slowing – and that could make it more destructive. Here’s how climate change might have influenced it – https://theconversation.com/cyclone-alfred-is-slowing-and-that-could-make-it-more-destructive-heres-how-climate-change-might-have-influenced-it-251594

How Trump is weaponising the Department of Justice, and the ‘dark’ tactic he’s using to get away with it

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Harrington, Associate Professor, School of Communication, Queensland University of Technology

It’s hard to keep track of US President Donald Trump’s many notable acts since returning to the White House. His recent pro-Russia stance on the war in Ukraine has, rightly, received a lot of attention.

But for every big moment, there are others that fly under the radar. One such issue is the politicisation of the Department of Justice (DoJ).

Although there is longstanding precedent that the DoJ remains politically neutral in its operations, recent events have indicated a dramatic break from that tradition.

And, importantly, Trump has been laying the groundwork to justify this for nearly two years, using a propaganda tactic that’s been employed by authoritarian governments throughout history.

Strategic sidelining

The current administration has attempted to fire or sideline anyone at the DoJ who was involved with prior investigations and prosecutions of the now-president.

This includes special counsel Jack Smith’s investigations into several aspects of Trump’s wrongdoing, which have since ended. Several lawyers have been fired, ostensibly because “the Acting Attorney-General does not trust these officials to assist in faithfully implementing the President’s agenda”.

This action is not only vindictive, but likely designed to intimidate would-be investigators and make them think twice before further examining any wrongdoing by Trump or his associates.

Equally noteworthy has been the department’s attempts to drop corruption charges against New York mayor Eric Adams.
The official reason is that pursuing the charges might “interfere” with Adams’ reelection campaign.

In reality, however, Adams has been accused of cutting a deal with the administration: he agrees to assist with Trump’s immigration crackdown in return for having the charges against him withdrawn (although not dropped entirely).

Adams denies the existence of a quid pro quo, but he did joke about it on national television with Tom Homan, Trump’s “Border Czar”.

So deeply problematic was all this that two US attorneys for the Southern District of New York opted to resign in protest, rather than be party to what they saw as a nakedly corrupt act.

The whole scenario is eerily reminiscent of 1973’s “Saturday Night Massacre”, when President Richard Nixon ordered his Attorney-General Elliot Richardson to fire the special prosecutor investigating the Watergate scandal.

Nixon eventually had his way, but not before refusals and resignations from both Richardson, and the Deputy Attorney-General William Ruckleshaus.

But, where Nixon’s move dramatically hastened his own downfall, Trump’s actions have barely raised an eyebrow. Why?

The propaganda play

The answer lies in a propaganda technique known as “accusation in a mirror”, which entails accusing one’s opponents of the very wrongdoing one plans to commit.

As one legal scholar explains, it’s:

a rhetorical practice in which one falsely accuses one’s enemies of conducting, plotting, or desiring to commit precisely the same transgressions that one plans to commit against them.

Accusation in a mirror has been used in the past, including in the Rwandan genocide. There, trusted voices claimed the Tutsi wanted to “exterminate” the Hutu. Tragically, it helped bring about the exact opposite circumstance.

Similarly, in February 2022 Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the Ukrainian government of committing genocide against Russian-speaking populations in the Donbas region. This baseless accusation provided a justification for invading Ukraine, which mirrored Russia’s own indiscriminate shelling of Ukrainian civilians.

We suggest Trump has been using this technique since he was first criminally indicted, in early 2023, on 34 felony charges related to the falsification of business records. He and his supporters have insisted the department, under President Joe Biden, was “weaponised” against him.

Trump repeatedly claimed those charges – and subsequent indictments – were a politically motivated “witch hunt”. He reiterated these claims in his first speech to Congress.

Many elected Republicans have also supported and amplified that narrative.

These claims of victimhood have helped prime Trump’s base to appraise any subsequent legal scrutiny of him as purely partisan, and therefore invalid.

In reality, the facts were straightforward. Prosecutors were sure there was enough proof to proceed with the case, including evidence Trump illegally kept classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago residence, and obstructed attempts to retrieve them.

In a functioning legal system, nobody is “above the law”. This means even former presidents can be prosecuted if there’s enough evidence.

Yet Trump’s accusations of a partisan DoJ completely reframed legitimate investigations into alleged political vendettas. In doing so, it effectively justified his subsequent decisions.

A self-fulfilling prophecy

The idea that “if they did it to me, I’m entitled to do it back” was made explicit by Trump in late 2023.

When asked if he would use the DoJ to go after his political rivals, Trump argued he would only be levelling the playing field, stating:

they’ve already done it, but if they want to follow through on this, yeah, it could certainly happen in reverse.

In short, Trump’s false claim of being victimised by a politicised DoJ served as moral cover for his own politicisation of it.

This is a textbook example of how accusation in a mirror can help manufacture the reality it pretends to condemn.

Addressing the problem

This tactic has long been a play by totalitarian and authoritarian leaders.

Foundational propaganda scholars such as Hannah Arendt and Jacques Ellul highlighted how authoritarian rulers often repeat falsehoods – flipping the aggressor and victim – until the masses become desensitised, alienated and confused.

Once enough people believe the system is already corrupt and untrustworthy, they are less likely to be shocked by an actual purge (such as firing DoJ officials).

The implications of such tactics extend internationally, not just to the US.

History cries out to us about the risks of this sort of public discourse. It erodes trust in institutions and liberal democratic processes, paving the road for leaders to undermine them further, corrupting the system in the name of rooting out corruption.

Ultimately, one of the best antidotes is awareness. By exposing these tactics, we can better safeguard against disinformation, protect the rule of law and hold leaders accountable.

The Conversation

Stephen Harrington receives funding from the Australian Research Council, for the Discovery Project ‘Understanding and Combatting “Dark Political Communication”‘.

Timothy Graham receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) for his Discovery Early Career Researcher Award, ‘Combatting Coordinated Inauthentic Behaviour on Social Media’. He also receives ARC funding for the Discovery Project, ‘Understanding and Combatting “Dark Political Communication”‘.

ref. How Trump is weaponising the Department of Justice, and the ‘dark’ tactic he’s using to get away with it – https://theconversation.com/how-trump-is-weaponising-the-department-of-justice-and-the-dark-tactic-hes-using-to-get-away-with-it-250760

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