Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wendy Bonython, Associate Professor of Law, Bond University

The Victorian Supreme Court recently dismissed a class action on behalf of more than 1,400 women who received Bayer’s Essure contraceptive device.

The decision attracted significant publicity, including criticism from the Victorian Premier.

It left the women shocked and disappointed, particularly since Bayer had settled a similar claim in the United States for US$1.6 billion.

So why did the Victorian class action fail?

What’s Essure?

Essure offered an alternative to more invasive permanent contraceptive procedures such as tubal ligation.

The device was implanted into the fallopian tubes. This triggered an intended inflammatory response that blocked the tubes, preventing passage of sperm and ova.

In Australia, the device was implanted by gynaecologists. More than 3,000 devices are thought to have been implanted into Australian women.

In 2017, Essure was voluntarily withdrawn from our market after increasingly publicised concerns regarding safety, including in the US.

The US class action was settled out of court, enabling Bayer to avoid setting a legal precedent for similar claims in other jurisdictions.

Relevant US laws are different from those in Australia. Consequently, settlement of the US claim has only limited value in determining the likely outcome of litigation in Australian courts.

What went wrong with the device?

Lead plaintiff Patrice Turner began experiencing abnormal uterine bleeding, heavy periods and pelvic pain within a few years of using Essure.

She ultimately required a hysterectomy, which removed the Essure devices and resolved her symptoms.

Other class members experienced similar symptoms, with many also requiring hysterectomies.

The claim relied on three causes of action:

1. Essure had a safety defect which caused the plaintiff’s injury

2. Essure wasn’t of the quality consumers would reasonably expect

3. the defendants were negligent in Essure’s design, manufacturing and distribution. The alleged negligence included inadequately disclosing risks to patients considering Essure or who had already received Essure.

All causes of action required the plaintiff to prove a causal connection between her harm and the device.

What did the court find?

Proving causation in legal disputes is often complex and technical. That is particularly so in cases where medical or other interventions allegedly cause or exacerbate injury or disability, where harms can also potentially be caused by other factors.

In dismissing the class action, Justice Andrew Keogh found the extensive expert evidence did not demonstrate that Essure caused either the harms experienced by the class members generally, or by the plaintiff specifically. That evidence drew on a wide range of medical and scientific disciplines.

Justice Keogh found for Bayer, noting pelvic pain and abnormal uterine bleeding are common in pre-menopausal women, and there is a range of potential causes of each.

The 827-page judgment emphasised that medical devices, which are “inherently dangerous or known to carry a risk of harm”, cannot be expected to be “risk-free”. A device does not have a “safety defect”, nor is it of unacceptable quality, simply because it poses a risk to consumers.

Similarly, in considering the negligence claim, the critical consideration was not whether the defendants shouldn’t have produced Essure when there was a foreseeable risk it could cause harm.

Rather, it was about whether the defendants acted reasonably in managing that risk, including providing sufficient information about the risks associated with Essure.

Justice Keogh found the defendants did act reasonably, providing:

adequate warnings of the established Essure risks in the PTMs [physician training manuals] and IFUs [instructions for use]. It was reasonable to expect that treating gynaecologists would provide information and warnings about the established risks to their patients based upon their own specialist skill, expertise and experience and the information provided by the defendants.

So what happens now?

The plaintiff has until early 2025 to appeal the decision.

An appeal would require establishing that the judge erred in his interpretation and application of the law, rather than simply arguing that the outcome is wrong.

Significantly, health professionals should give Justice Keogh’s findings on warnings much thought.

Doctors potentially face more litigation related to medical devices if they do not appropriately provide patients with more extensive and customised warnings than the standard warnings by the manufacturer about risks associated with particular devices.

Could something like this happen again?

Regulatory frameworks governing medical devices have been significantly strengthened since Australia’s Therapeutic Goods Administration first approved Essure in the 1990s.

Increased publicity and successful class actions related to other problematic medical devices have resulted in significant reforms designed to reduce large-scale patient harms.

Medical devices carry inherent risks. These can only be managed rather than eliminated entirely without limiting access to devices and other interventions which may benefit significant numbers of patients.

However, given the court’s findings that the evidence did not indicate Essure caused the plaintiff’s harms, under the strengthened regulations for medical devices, a product like Essure could potentially meet the current requirements for sale in Australia.

Wendy Bonython does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The Essure contraceptive device left some women with chronic pelvic pain. Why did their class action fail? – https://theconversation.com/the-essure-contraceptive-device-left-some-women-with-chronic-pelvic-pain-why-did-their-class-action-fail-246137

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julie Hennegan, Senior Research Fellow; Co-Head, Global Adolescent Health Working Group, Burnet Institute

Many young women and other people who menstruate are turning to menstrual cups to manage their periods.

In 2021, my colleagues and I surveyed 15- to 29-year-olds in Victoria and found 17% had used a menstrual cup during their last period. A study in Spain published in 2022 found 47% of 18- to 25-year-olds had used a menstrual cup in the past year.

Menstrual cups are small, flexible cups that are inserted into the vagina to catch menstrual blood. Most are made of medical-grade silicone. They can be emptied, rinsed and reused, and sterilised using boiling water or a microwave steriliser.

A 2019 review of the research found menstrual cups are safe and effective. They also reduce environmental waste and are cheaper over time compared to single-use products such as pads and tampons.

However, our recent study found young people often face difficulties and discomfort that can discourage them from continuing to use menstrual cups. This highlights the need for better education and support.

We wanted to know what young people thought of menstrual cups

My colleagues and I surveyed 530 young people living in Australia between the ages of 15 and 24 who had ever tried using a menstrual cup.

To find participants we used the menstrual cycle tracking app Clue. Clue users received a pop-up message when they opened the app inviting them to join the study.

Using Clue meant we could reach a large group of young people. It also avoided the risk of our survey being shared to networks online that might be more biased, such as groups advocating for the use of cups.

At the same time, we relied on volunteers. We know more of our participants were from cities and wealthier areas than average. And it’s possible those who had more negative or positive experiences were motivated to complete the survey.

Pain, leaks and cups getting stuck

Lots of young people had difficulties with menstrual cups, particularly the first time they used them. During the first period participants used a menstrual cup:

• only 10% successfully inserted their cup on the first try

• more than half (54%) reported the cup leaked

• one in four (25%) reported pain or discomfort when the cup was in place

• 45% could not get the menstrual cup out on their first attempt, with 17% reporting they needed help to remove it

• 12 young people (2%) reported their IUD was displaced (IUDs are small contraceptive devices inserted into the uterus).

Participants described these difficulties as distressing. One said:

I kept being told the cup was a one size fits all and I really hurt myself trying to fit it in all the time and feeling anxiety that I was different somehow.

Almost one-third (29%) of young people had stopped using a cup by the time of the survey. Of this group, 40% stopped after trying the cup for just one menstrual period.

A learning curve

Experiences got better for those who kept using a menstrual cup. By the time they had used a cup for more than six cycles, 40% of young people reported no issues.

Of participants who kept using a cup, 48% felt confident after one to three cycles, and another 21% after four to six cycles. As one explained:

The first time trying to pull it out was scary because the grip is very different to a tampon. Feel like it is stuck and you won’t ever get it out […] all my friends have had the same first scary experience but then afterwards it’s fine!

Some participants switched to a different menstrual cup and found this helpful – 75% of those who switched reported it improved their experience.

Our findings are consistent with past research which has reported menstrual cups have a learning curve and users become more comfortable using them over time.

Education is important

We found many young people didn’t know enough about how to choose or use a menstrual cup.

Just 19% of young people strongly agreed when we asked whether they had enough information to make an informed choice about which menstrual cup to buy. Less than half (44%) knew different menstrual cups had different characteristics (such as different sizes, firmness, and that different ones are designed for different cervix heights).

We need better information on how young people can find the right cup fit more easily. Online resources such as the website “Put A Cup In It” aim to provide comparisons across cups to inform users.

More broadly, young people need more information about reusable menstrual products such as menstrual cups.

Providing realistic information about the learning curve and potential discomforts when starting out can help young people feel prepared and make informed product choices.

Better information could also help governments and other organisations that are considering providing free or subsidised menstrual cups as part of initiatives to make menstrual products more affordable.

Comprehensive menstrual health education should start in our schools, empowering young people with the knowledge to make informed choices about their bodies.

Julie Hennegan receives funding from Reckitt Global Hygiene Institute (RGHI) and the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC). The views expressed are those of the author, and not necessarily those of the funders.

– ref. Menstrual cups are safe and sustainable – but they can be tricky for first-time users, our new study shows – https://theconversation.com/menstrual-cups-are-safe-and-sustainable-but-they-can-be-tricky-for-first-time-users-our-new-study-shows-246045

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rick Sarre, Emeritus Professor in Law and Criminal Justice, University of South Australia

It’s the time of year when many of us return to our favourite Christmas fables to get into the festive spirit.

While film often relies on the audience suspending its disbelief, it’s easy to watch and wonder if people could get away with these things in the real world. Are some of them even legal?

As a team of experts, we looked at the legal conundrums posed by Home Alone, Love Actually, Miracle on 34th Street and The Grinch.

Home Alone

Let’s begin by exploring one of the perennial favourites.

It’s never a good idea to leave your eight-year-old home alone for three days, even if he’s surrounded by Yuletide paraphernalia.

While there is no prescribed age at which time a child can legally be left alone, parents have a responsibility to ensure their children are safe and their needs are met.

Failure to do this can lead to a child protection investigation and even criminal charges.

But police may have breached their duty of care after promising to check on Kevin then departing when Kevin failed to answer, leaving him at the mercy of the “wet bandits”.

It’s possible the police may be liable in negligence for any damage Kevin suffered as a result, so the burglars are not the only ones in potential trouble.

In the meantime, Kevin sets booby-traps to foil the intruders. Could this approach to self-protection backfire legally?

The law of occupiers’ liability states that homeowners owe a duty of care to ensure their property is safe for visitors, and that includes uninvited guests, even those who might do them harm.

An injured trespasser could conceivably sue Kevin’s parents on the basis that they inadequately supervised their child.

Having said that, the criminal law allows Kevin to act in reasonable self-defence, but the key here is whether the use of a blowtorch, or a whack from a heavy iron are reasonable defensive tactics.

In any event, Kevin is under the minimum age of criminal responsibility and cannot therefore be criminally liable.

In his next Christmas mishap, Kevin is home alone again. He boards the wrong flight and arrives in New York. He tells a credible lie to the front desk clerk at the five star hotel he checks into: “my dad gave me his credit card”.

So who’s going to be responsible for Kevin’s expenditures as the ruse continues? All credit card contracts include terms that make cardholders responsible for any charges on that card.

Moreover, there’s a clear obligation on cardholders that they keep the card safe and ensure it’s only used by the relevant cardholder.

But there is an obligation on merchants, too, not to continue with a transaction that they should have reasonably suspected was suspicious.

Which view will prevail here? Answer: dad will need to cover the debts because he had not reported his card missing, and Kevin’s angelic face was pretty convincing!

Love Actually

Many scenes in Love Actually would be in breach of Australia’s positive duty laws regarding sexual harassment. These laws require employers to take proactive steps to prevent discrimination, harassment and other unlawful conduct in the workplace.

In the movie, there are multiple incidents that wouldn’t look out of place in the the #MeToo moment.

The fictional US president, while on a state visit, inappropriately touches staff member Natalie. There’s a high-risk power-imbalance between tortured author Jamie and his young, insecurely employed Portuguese housekeeper, Aurelia.

There’s also the sexually aggressive Mia, secretary to Harry, who organises an office party in a gallery of naked images and “dark corners for doing dark deeds”.

Alarm bells should have been ringing in many HR offices that Christmas, as “love” like that at work is not actually lawful.

There is a memorable scene in Love Actually where young Sam runs through airport security to see Joanna, to tell her of his love.

While it pays off for Sam (getting a kiss from Joanna) in real life such actions have serious legal consequences.

Under Australian aviation security legislation, specifically Regulation 9 of the Aviation Transport Security Act and Regulations, a breach of security can result in a fine of up to $10,500.00.

And Sam is 13, meaning he would be criminally liable in all jurisdictions in Australia (note the ACT will raise the age of criminal responsibility to 14 in July 2025) because he clearly understands his actions are wrong.

So, while the scene touchingly highlights the lengths people will go for love, it’s a big gamble to breach security regulations. Running through airport security might not actually be worth it.

Miracle on 34th Street

Kris Kringle’s lawyer is going to need a miracle on 34th Street. He is taking some troubling instructions from his client. It’s in relation to an assault.

In order to be acquitted, Kris has to show that he’s not just someone who plays Santa, rather he’s the real Santa.

Under the Australian Solicitors’ Conduct Rules, however, a different legal approach is necessary, because the lawyer has a paramount duty to the court not to make frivolous submissions.

While Kris’s fatuous belief about his identity does not render him incapable of providing instructions, any legal practitioner must exercise caution when listening to nonsense.

The Grinch

The Grinch disguises himself as Santa Claus, steals a sleigh and breaks into homes to steal gifts, decorations and food. Grinch is clearly guilty of larceny as his intention is to deprive his victims permanently.

In some Australian jurisdictions his stealing could be considered “aggravated”, given the late hour and the age of victims (under 16 and over 60), whom he must have known would be in Yuletide-festive readiness.

But wait! In the morning the Grinch awakens to cheerful singing, and, in a moment of about face rectitude, he returns the stolen gifts, a matter that will be taken as an important mitigating factor in sentencing.

So, what do we learn from these heartstring-tugging tales, redemption narratives, and stories of good conquering evil? As it happens, a lot about the law, actually.

Professor McKay AM has received funding from the ARC and several CRCs most recently RACE2030 and is a member of the Human rights committee of the Law Society and on the Board of Variety SA and the Australia Day Council of SA,

Matthew Atkinson receives funding from the Law Foundation of South Australia to support the UniSA Legal Advice Clinic. He is also a board member of the Northern Community Legal Centre.

Michelle Fernando receives funding from the Law Foundation of South Australia. She is a member of the Child Development Council of South Australia and the Australian Centre for Child Protection.

Paula Zito receives funding from the Law Foundation of South Australia to support the UniSA Legal Advice Clinic.

Sarah Moulds receives funding from the Australian Research Council and has previously received funding from the Law Foundation of South Australia. Sarah Moulds is also the volunteer Director of the Rights Resource Network SA and the Deputy Chair of the Law Society of South Australia’s Human Rights Committee.

Ben Livings and Rick Sarre do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Can you run through airport security for love? Leave a child home alone? Here’s what the law says about Christmas movies – https://theconversation.com/can-you-run-through-airport-security-for-love-leave-a-child-home-alone-heres-what-the-law-says-about-christmas-movies-244913

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elizabeth Summerell, Lecturer, School of Psychology, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Adelaide

While the holiday season is supposed to be a happy time, evidence suggests it’s one of the worst times of year for domestic and family violence.

Victorian crime data show family incidents tend to be more frequent in December and January compared with most other months. WA Police also report increased family violence incidents over the Christmas to New Year period, with the average daily number of reports increasing by 24.2%.

Already increased rates of violence over the festive season may be getting worse. Last year, Queensland Police saw a 32% increase in family and domestic violence-related calls over the Christmas to New Year period compared with the previous year.

In Victoria, the average number of recorded family violence incidents rose by 33% on Christmas Day alone.

These statistics are in line with research finding rates of violent crimes are related to major holidays.

But what is it about the holidays that makes violence more likely?

Below, we outline three factors that make the holidays an at-risk period for violent behaviour.

It’s important to note there is no single cause of violent behaviour. Rather, many complex factors interact to make it more likely that certain people will be violent in certain situations.

So even if you’re not concerned about violence in your life, it’s helpful to understand what may drive some people to act in a certain way. Then we can all have a safer, happier festive season.

Money, heat and alcohol

The holidays come with increased financial pressures associated with gift-giving and social events.

A recent report found more than 50% of Australians struggle to afford gifts for special occasions such as Christmas.

Alongside the current cost-of-living crisis, many people are in financial distress, which research shows is associated with intimate partner violence perpetration.

Holiday celebrations often involve alcohol consumption, which is also related to aggressive behaviour.

According to the New South Wales Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research around a quarter of domestic violence-related assaults from July 2023 to June 2024 were alcohol-related.

Not everyone who drinks alcohol will become violent. However, alcohol changes the way the brain functions by reducing our ability to control our impulses, which can increase the likelihood of becoming violent when provoked.

The holiday season in Australia also coincides with rising summer temperatures. Higher temperatures are associated with increases in violence.

Researchers suspect this association may be due to increased discomfort and frustration and more frequent social events where conflict may arise.

While these situational factors on their own don’t cause aggression, they can lower our ability to “keep our cool”. For example, if someone is already feeling hot and bothered, stressed about the cost of Christmas, and has had too much to drink, they might be more likely to react to even small triggers.

What can be done?

1. Drink responsibly

Research shows reducing harmful alcohol consumption can reduce violence.

Australian guidelines recommend consuming no more than four standard drinks on any one day.

If you do choose to drink, experts recommend considering low- or no-alcohol alternatives, pacing yourself, and making sure you’ve got a plan to get you and your loved ones home safely.

2. Stay cool

Early forecasts predict most capital cities will enjoy warm weather in the high 20s or low 30s on Christmas day.

To beat the heat, try to avoid being outside during the hottest parts of the day. Stick to the shade and stay hydrated.

3. Use emotion-regulation strategies

There are various ways you can manage negative emotions that may lead to violence.

One way is to adjust the situations you are in. While declining invitations to events that may upset you would be one way to use this strategy, family dynamics aren’t always that simple.

Modifying the situation may be more realistic. If there’s a family member with whom you’d rather not engage, focus your attention on interacting with others, or ask a trusted person to keep an eye out.

Research suggests these kinds of situation-based strategies may be particularly useful for people who find it difficult to control their emotions in the heat of the moment.

If conflict does arise, try to step away or redirect your focus. You could partake in backyard cricket or talk to someone else – anything that distracts you from how you’re feeling. Research suggests distraction can help “turn down the volume” of intense negative emotions.

Another way you can reduce negative emotions is by trying to see a stressful situation from a different perspective.

This strategy, called cognitive reappraisal, has been linked to lower levels of intimate partner violence.

Stressed about balancing a busy Christmas Day schedule? Try to remind yourself it’s a chance to show your loved ones you care. Tempers rising over the same old family arguments? Try to focus on the opportunity to be together.

These evidence-based strategies can help stop conflict from escalating and contribute to a safe and happy holiday season.

The National Sexual Assault, Family and Domestic Violence Counselling Line – 1800 RESPECT (1800 737 732) – is available 24 hours a day, seven days a week for any Australian who has experienced, or is at risk of, family and domestic violence and/or sexual assault.

Ella Moeck receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Elizabeth Summerell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why does family violence increase during the festive season? Here are 3 contributing factors – https://theconversation.com/why-does-family-violence-increase-during-the-festive-season-here-are-3-contributing-factors-246026

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milena Bojovic, PhD Candidate, Macquarie University

New Zealand’s dairy sector faces an uncertain future due to several challenges, including water pollution, high emissions, animal welfare concerns and market volatility.

All of these issues are building tensions and changing public perceptions of dairy farming.

In my new research, I argue the time has come for the dairy sector to adopt a “just transition” framework to achieve a fair and more sustainable food future and to navigate the disruptions from alternative protein industries.

The concept of a just transition is typically applied to the energy sector in shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources.

But a growing body of research and advocacy is calling for the same principles to be applied to food systems, especially for shifting away from intensive animal agriculture.

Aotearoa New Zealand’s dairy sector is an exemplary case study for examining the possibilities of a just transition because it is so interconnected in the global production and trade of dairy, with 95% of domestic milk production exported as whole-milk powder to more than 130 countries.

Environmental and economic challenges

New Zealand’s dairy sector faces significant threats. This includes environmental challenges such as alarming levels of nitrate pollution in waterways caused by intensive agriculture.

The sector is also a major source of emissions of biogenic methane from the burps of almost six million cows in the national dairy herd.

Debates about how to account for these emissions have gone on for many years in New Zealand. But last month, the coalition government passed legislation to keep agriculture out of the Emissions Trading Scheme.

This means livestock farmers, agricultural processors, fertiliser importers and manufacturers won’t have to pay for on-farm emissions. Instead, the government intends to implement a pricing system outside the Emissions Trading Scheme by 2030. To meet emissions targets, it relies on the development of technologies such as methane inhibitors.

In addition to environmental challenges, global growth and domestic initiatives in the development of alternative dairy products are changing the future of milk production and consumption.

New Zealand dairy giant Fonterra is pursuing the growth of alternative dairy with significant investments in a partnership with Dutch multinational corporation Royal-DSM. This supports precision fermentation start-up Vivici, which already has market-ready products such as whey protein powder and protein water.

Fonterra’s annual report states it anticipates a rise in customer preference towards dairy alternatives (plant-based or precision-fermentation dairy) due to climate-related concerns. The company says these shifting preferences could pose significant business risks for future dairy production if sustainability expectations cannot be met.

Pathways to a just transition for dairy

What happens when one the pillars of the economy becomes a major contributor to environmental degradation and undermines its own sustainability? Nitrate pollution and methane emissions threaten the quality of the land and waterways the dairy sector depends on.

In my recent study which draws on interviews with people across New Zealand’s dairy sector, three key transition pathways are identified, which address future challenges and opportunities.

• Deintensification: reducing the number of dairy cows per farm.

• Diversification: introducing a broader range of farming practices, landuse options and market opportunities.

• Dairy alternatives: government and industry support to help farmers
  participate in emerging plant-based and precision-fermentation industries.

While the pathways are not mutually exclusive, they highlight the socioeconomic and environmental implications of rural change which require active participation and engagement between the farming community and policy makers.

The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment recently published a guide to just transitions. It maps out general principles such as social justice and job security.

But the guide is light on advice for agricultural transitions. My work puts forward recommendations to shape future policy for a more just and sustainable dairy future. This includes issues such as navigating intensification pressures, supporting the development of alternative proteins and fundamentally supporting farmer agency in the transition process.

For the dairy transition to be fair and sustainable, we need buy-in from leadership and support from government, the dairy sector and the emerging alternative dairy industry to help primary producers and rural communities. This needs to be specific to different regions and farming methods.

The future of New Zealand’s dairy industry depends on its ability to adapt. Climate adaptation demands balancing social license, sustainable practices and disruptions from novel protein technologies.

Milena Bojovic received funding from Macquarie University as part of the RTP PhD Scholarship.

– ref. NZ’s dairy industry faces an uncertain future – its fate now lies in its ability to adapt – https://theconversation.com/nzs-dairy-industry-faces-an-uncertain-future-its-fate-now-lies-in-its-ability-to-adapt-245148

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daswin de Silva, Professor of AI and Analytics, Deputy Director of the Centre for Data Analytics and Cognition, La Trobe University

In 2024, artificial intelligence (AI) continued taking large and surprising steps forward.

People started conversing with AI “resurrections” of the dead, using AI toothbrushes and confessing to an AI-powered Jesus. Meanwhile, OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, was valued at US$150 billion and claimed it was on the way to developing an advanced AI system more capable than humans. Google’s AI company DeepMind made a similar claim.

These are just a handful of AI milestones over the past year. They reinforce not only how huge the technology has become, but also how it is transforming a wide range of human activities.

So what can we expect to happen in the world of AI in 2025?

Neural scaling

Neural scaling laws suggest the abilities of AI systems will increase predictably as the systems grow in size and are trained on more data. These laws have so far theorised the leap from first to second generation generative AI models such as ChatGPT.

Everyday users like us experienced this as the transition from having amusing chats with chatbots to doing useful work with AI “copilots”, such as drafting project proposals or summarising emails.

Recently, these scaling laws appear to have plateaued. Making AI models bigger is no longer making them more capable.

The latest model from OpenAI, o1, attempts to overcome the size plateau by using more computer power to “think” about trickier problems. But this is likely to increase costs for users and does not solve fundamental problems such as hallucination.

The scaling plateau is a welcome pause to the move towards building an AI system that is more capable than humans. It may allow robust regulation and global consensus to catch up.

Training data

Most current AI systems rely on huge amounts of data for training. However, training data has hit a wall as most high-quality sources have been exhausted.

Companies are conducting trials in which they train AI systems on AI-generated datasets. This is despite a severe lack of understanding of new “synthetic biases” that can compound already biased AI.

For example, in a study published earlier this year, researchers demonstrated how training with synthetic data produces models that are less accurate and disproportionately sideline underrepresented groups, despite starting with unbiased data sets.

Tech companies’ need for high-quality, authentic data strengthens the case for personal data ownership. This would give people much more control over their personal data, allowing them, for example, to sell it to tech companies to train AI models within appropriate policy frameworks.

Robotics

This year Tesla announced an AI-powered humanoid robot. Known as Optimus, this robot is able to perform a number of household chores.

In 2025, Tesla intends to deploy these robots in its internal manufacturing operations with mass production for external customers in 2026.

Amazon, the world’s second-largest private employer, has also deployed more than 750,000 robots in its warehouse operations, including its first autonomous mobile robot that can work independently around people.

Generalisation – that is, the ability to learn from datasets representing specific tasks and generalise this to other tasks – has been the fundamental performance gap in robotics.

This is now addressed by AI.

For example, a company called Physical Intelligence has developed a model robot that can unload a dryer and fold clothes into a stack, despite not being explicitly trained to do so. The business case for affordable domestic robots continues to be strong, although they’re still expensive to make.

Automation

The planned Department of Government Efficiency in the United States is also likely to drive a significant AI automation agenda in its push to reduce the number of federal agencies.

This agenda is also expected to include developing a practical framework for realising “agentic AI” in the private sector. Agentic AI refers to systems capable of performing fully independent tasks.

For example, an AI agent will be able to automate your inbox, by reading, prioritising and responding to emails, organising meetings and following up with action items and reminders.

Regulation

The incoming administration of newly elected US president Donald Trump plans to wind back efforts to regulate AI, starting with the repeal of outgoing president Joe Biden’s executive order on AI. This order was passed in an attempt to limit harms while promoting innovation.

Trump’s administration will also develop an open market policy where AI monopolies and other US industries are encouraged to drive an aggressive innovation agenda.

Elsewhere, however, we will see the European Union’s AI Act being enforced in 2025, starting with the ban of AI systems that pose unacceptable risks. This will be followed by the rollout of transparency obligations for generative AI models, such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT, that pose systemic risks.

Australia is following a risk-based approach to AI regulation, much like the EU. The proposal for ten mandatory guardrails for high-risk AI, released in September, could come into force in 2025.

Workplace productivity

We can expect to see workplaces continue to invest in licenses for various AI “copilot” systems, as many early trials show they may increase productivity.

But this must be accompanied with regular AI literacy and fluency training to ensure the technology is used appropriately.

In 2025, AI developers, consumers and regulators should be mindful of what Macquarie Dictionary dubbed the word of the year in 2024: enshittification.

This is the process by which online platforms and services steadily deteriorate over time. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen to AI.

Daswin de Silva does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. AI will continue to grow in 2025. But it will face major challenges along the way – https://theconversation.com/ai-will-continue-to-grow-in-2025-but-it-will-face-major-challenges-along-the-way-244515

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steven Farram, Associate Professor in North Australian and Regional Studies (History), Charles Darwin University

It is hard to comprehend the force with which Cyclone Tracy struck Darwin early on Christmas Day, 1974. It was so ferocious that it killed 66 people, partly or completely destroyed 10,000 homes, and wiped out most public utilities.

In its wake, at the height of the wet season, the town was left with no electricity, no reliable water supply and no sewerage. Thousands of people were made homeless overnight.

When the rest of Australia learned what had happened, an unprecedented recovery operation began. Fear of disease prompted a mass evacuation. Of the 47,000 people in Darwin that Christmas, 23,000 were evacuated by air to other cities within a week. Others left by road. By New Year’s Day, the population was down to 11,000. Many evacuees never returned, with some too traumatised to think of ever living in Darwin again.

With the 50th anniversary of the disaster this year, Cyclone Tracy is receiving a lot of attention. Books, documentaries, exhibitions and memorials are in the news as Darwin remembers one of the worst natural disasters in Australia’s history.

Despite all this attention, many newcomers have little idea about what to do in the event of a cyclone. Media, government and employers play an important role informing people of the appropriate precautions and responses, but the history of major cyclones in the Top End is little known, even among long-term locals. This history needs to be better understood.

The first recorded Northern Territory cyclone occurred at the Victoria settlement on the Cobourg Peninsula, about 350 kilometres east of Darwin, in 1839. Most buildings were destroyed, only two of 20 small boats survived. A larger boat, Pelorus, was forced on its side. Eight crew members died. The death toll was likely higher, as a track of fallen trees nearly 13 kilometres wide was later discovered in the surrounding countryside.

Victoria, on the Cobourg Peninsula, was abandoned in 1849, and Darwin established 20 years later. It experienced its first cyclone in 1882, but the damage was slight compared to what happened 15 years later.

In January 1897, a terrific cyclone hit Darwin. The weakest buildings were destroyed outright, and even the strongest stone buildings lost roofs, or suffered structural damage. Houses on piers were lifted into the air and crashed down further away. Eighteen of the 29 pearling luggers in the port were lost. Twenty-eight people were killed.

After the cyclone, the Charles Point Lighthouse was visited by large numbers of distressed Aboriginal people who had lost all their natural sources of food, as the surrounding bush had been stripped up to a distance of 65 kilometres.

When another major cyclone struck in March 1937, it destroyed or damaged nearly every building in Darwin. The damage might have been less if more care had been taken in the rebuilding since 1897, but for most people that was either a dim memory or something they knew nothing about. In the circumstances, it was lucky there was only one death.

And so, we come to 1974. Shortly before Tracy, the Institution of Engineers suggested that many buildings in Darwin were not strong enough to withstand cyclonic winds. That prediction proved to be true, and the newly-built northern suburbs were almost completely flattened.

After Tracy, Darwin was rebuilt using a tough new building code, but the city was not visited by another major cyclone for many years. In early 2011, Cyclone Carlos dumped massive amounts of rain on Darwin, and hundreds of trees collapsed due to high winds and inundated soil. Some houses and cars were crushed, but the damage was not massive.

The “big one” turned out to be Cyclone Marcus, which struck Darwin in March 2018. More than 400 power lines were brought down, leaving more than 26,000 homes without power for days. Thousands of falling trees caused extensive damage to cars, fences and buildings. Miraculously, no one was reported to have been killed or seriously injured. That was partly due to improved building standards, but it was also partly luck.

After Carlos and Marcus, many trees, especially the notoriously unstable African mahogany, were removed from urban areas around Darwin, but other trees can also cause damage.

My house, for example, was struck during Marcus by two falling mango trees from my neighbour’s yard, which we had complained about for years. We were also left without power for days. Because the NBN had replaced the copper line, this also meant we had no telephone. For those without mobile phones, this was a terrible inconvenience. People in nearby Nightcliff did not have these problems because that suburb is one of the few with underground power.

Successive governments have failed to meaningfully extend underground power. After the 2024 Northern Territory elections, the new government announced that existing plans to underground power had been scrapped in order to spend the money elsewhere.

Fifty years since Cyclone Tracy, it seems the lessons have still not been learnt.

Steven Farram does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Fifty years ago, Cyclone Tracy devastated Darwin. The lessons from it have still not been learnt – https://theconversation.com/fifty-years-ago-cyclone-tracy-devastated-darwin-the-lessons-from-it-have-still-not-been-learnt-244168

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher Harrison, Senior Lecturer, Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney

If you have Australia is critically short of GPs – and the shortfall is growing, predicted to be 8,600 GPs by 2048.

So why can’t we just train more? Despite new programs to attract medical graduates, there are multiple reasons Australia is struggling to keep up with demand.

Why is demand for GPs going up?

Demand for GP services is increasing because our population is changing.

Between June 2019 and June 2023, the Australian population grew by 5.2%.

But more importantly, our population is ageing. Over the same period, the number of people aged 65 years and over increased by 13.1%.

Older patients, especially those with multiple chronic conditions, have a far higher demand for GP services than younger, healthy patients.

For example, in 2023 patients aged 10-14 years visited GPs an average of 3.5 times. Those aged 85 years or older averaged 17.3 GP visits in the same year.

Our ageing population means demand for GP services is increasing faster than the population is growing.

More GPs doesn’t mean more appointments

The number of GPs in Australia is actually going up. In recent years it has increased 5.1%, from 37,530 in 2019 to 39,449 in 2024. This mirrors total population growth.

However, the number of full-time equivalent GPs has decreased by 1.3% over the same period.

So, what’s going on? There are two main issues.

First, there has been a historical trend over the years where male GPs have been working fewer weekly hours.

Second, the proportion of GPs who are female has been increasing for decades. There are now nearly as many female GPs (49.6%) as male (50.4%).

Female GPs have traditionally worked fewer hours than male GPs. This is partly due to female GPs taking greater carer responsibilities than their male peers.

These two factors combined mean while the overall number of GPs has increased, the number of full-time equivalent GPs has decreased. This further exacerbates the shortfall of GPs.

General practice is not drawing graduates

As a profession, general practice has been finding it difficult to attract new graduates.

The latest Medical School Outcomes Database report showed only only 10.5% of graduates listed general practice as their first choice of specialisation.

Even when combined with those students who said they were considering a career as a rural generalist (a further 7.0%) this is not enough to meet the growing demand and more needs to be done to attract new graduates.

Why isn’t it attractive?

1. Lower financial incentives compared to other graduates

GPs earn less on average than other medical specialities. In 2021-22, GPs (including full-time and part-time) reported a median total income of $A142,279. That’s close to half of what psychiatrists earned ($268,135), and significantly less than surgeons ($373,720) and anaesthetists ($432,234).

In addition, general practice faces greater pressure than most specialities to bulk bill patients. Bulk billing means the fee is covered by a Medicare rebate, with no charge to the patient.

But yearly increases to Medicare rebates have been well below the consumer price index (CPI) and for several years they were frozen altogether.

At the same time, the costs of providing general practice care (including rent, wages for administrative staff and equipment) have risen far faster than the increases to Medicare rebates. This squeezes GPs who continue to bulk bill.

An increase to rebates for bulk billing incentive items in 2023 has likely relieved some of this pressure and has coincided with an increase in the number of patients being bulk billed.

2. Training pathway

Another issue in attracting future GPs is the required training path for doctors once they finish their medical degree.

During their medical degree, all medical students spend time in general practice. Those who want to become GPs after this must enter a general practice training program as part of postgraduate study, after completing the first postgraduate year (also known as internship).

However when they graduate from their medical degree they are required to work exclusively in hospitals – where they are exposed to colleagues who are almost always hospital-trained (and have never worked as GPs). This means general practice becomes less visible as a career option to many junior doctors.

3. Conditions

Another barrier is those who leave hospital jobs to enter GP training lose many entitlements, such as a reduction in pay and paid parental leave.

Hospital junior doctors are employees under the medical practitioners award, which includes paid parental leave.

But GP trainees are usually employed under minimum training standards, which is not an award and does not have mandated employer-paid parental leave. (They may still qualify for the paid parental scheme via Centrelink.)

This is at a time when they often have significant student debt and may be considering starting a family.

What’s being done to attract new graduates?

As a consequence of all these factors, for the past couple of years GP training places have not been filled to capacity.

The good news is enrolments into GP training are headed in the right direction.

For 2025, the Australian GP training program positions are full, an almost 20% increase on 2024 enrolments. That means there are 1,504 junior doctors who have accepted a training place for 2025.

It is still too early to tell if this increase is a one-off, why there has been improvement and whether or not it will be sustained.

There are several other pathways into GP training as well, including 32 places for doctors who want to train in Aboriginal Medical Services in rural and remote areas and some self-funded training options.

What else do we need?

These are steps in the right direction. But more still needs to be done to attract a new generation of graduates to enjoy the benefits of working in general practice.

We need sustainable strategies to address the inequities between general practice and other specialities, particularly training pay and conditions.

Without support for general practice – which provides first point of contact, comprehensive, coordinated and long-term care – we risk drifting to a system which fragments care and Australians will increasingly receive piecemeal health care.

Christopher Harrison has a current research contract with the Australian government Department of Health and Aged Care.

Julie Gordon has a current research contract with the Australian government Department of Health and Aged Care.

Marguerite Tracy receives sitting fees for the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners Quality Care committee. Marguerite has received Medical Research Future Fund grant funding.

– ref. Australia has an ongoing GP shortage. Why can’t we just train more GPs? – https://theconversation.com/australia-has-an-ongoing-gp-shortage-why-cant-we-just-train-more-gps-241677

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Knapp, Associate Professor in Biological Anthropology, University of Otago

As many Wellingtonians will know, kākā can be trouble. New Zealand’s pesky forest parrots have expanded throughout New Zealand’s capital city since they were reintroduced 22 years ago and they are not averse to “modifying” people’s homes to build nests in roof spaces.

But mostly, they are the ones in trouble.

Kākā populations across Aotearoa New Zealand have declined significantly over the past two centuries, in particular after the introduction of European mammalian predators.

Their former New Zealand-wide range is now reduced to a few isolated populations supported by intensive conservation efforts by the Department of Conservation. Private organisations such as Project Janszoon also work to prevent further decline and facilitate the species’ recovery.

The most critical tool for protecting kākā is effective control of introduced predators in the areas where the parrots have persisted. This allows these kākā populations to grow and maintain genetic diversity.

An additional benefit is that large healthy populations provide birds for natural dispersal to areas where they have become locally extinct or rare. However, in some places, the time frames over which natural dispersal will repopulate areas where kākā once existed are longer than we would like.

In these cases, conservation translocations are used to re-establish kākā, facilitate gene flow, reduce the risk of inbreeding and increase genetic diversity.

Challenges of moving birds between sites

Kākā translocations come with their own challenges. There are two different subspecies, the North Island kākā and the South Island kākā. They differ in size and plumage colour and are treated separately when it comes to translocations. North Island birds will only be translocated between North Island sites and South Island birds only between South Island sites.

In the absence of knowledge about what causes and maintains the differences between the birds from each island, this conservative approach makes sense to preserve the uniqueness of the two subspecies. But it comes at the cost of significantly reducing the number of birds that can be translocated, and the number of sites they can be translocated to.

This in turn reduces the gene pool for mixing and therefore means the genetic diversity of future generations might be more restricted than it could otherwise be.

To address this problem, researchers have explored kākā genetics. Curiously, the largest New Zealand-wide population study so far, published a decade ago, found there was no clear genetic difference between North Island and South Island kākā.

The problem is that the kākā genome is like a big instruction manual, written with more than a billion letters. The study was limited to surveying a small fraction of this manual, looking at fewer than a dozen “paragraphs”. Key genetic differences between the two subspecies may have remained hidden.

Deciphering the kākā genome

More recently, our team conducted a much deeper study of the genetic differences between North Island and South Island kākā. Yet, even after looking at more than 100,000 “paragraphs” of the kākā genome, the results remained the same. There is no clear distinction between the two subspecies.

Nevertheless, it is too early to start mixing North Island and South Island birds. While we have not found a clear genetic difference between the subspecies, we still do not know what causes their different looks on a molecular level.

There are several paths forward. We have now sequenced complete genomes of ten North Island and ten South Island birds. By looking at the full genomes, we hope to finally identify the parts that uniquely distinguish the two subspecies (if there are any).

But there are other questions that are equally important. How far back in time do we see the sharp distinction between North Island and South Island birds?

Early European explorers such as Sir Walter Buller reported a much bigger diversity of kākā forms than we see today. In fact, Buller collected birds that looked like North Island kākā on the West Coast of the South Island.

Could it be that what we are seeing today is an artifact of population decline? Perhaps what we know as North Island and South Island kākā are simply the only surviving forms of a formerly more diverse species. Perhaps the lack of genetic difference between the subspecies indicates that some natural mixing is still happening on a small scale.

Mātauranga Māori might hold important answers. Kākā feathers have been valued by iwi from across the motu. Is there traditional knowledge on the diversity of kākā plumage in pre- and early European times? Were there birds that looked like a mixture between North and South Island birds?

If so, the present-day separation of subspecies would not actually be of natural origin. This would support the mixing of North and South Island populations, which might help to reinstate the original kākā diversity.

In the end, combining traditional knowledge and state-of-the-art molecular tools may hold the key to enhanced and more effective conservation of one of Aotearoa New Zealand’s most well-known and beloved birds.

This article was written in collaboration by Denise Martini, Michael Knapp and Kevin Parker.

Michael Knapp received funding from the Royal Society of New Zealand (Rutherford Discovery Fellowship).

Denise Martini does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Could NZ’s two kākā subspecies actually be remnants of a more diverse species? Here’s why we need to know – https://theconversation.com/could-nzs-two-kaka-subspecies-actually-be-remnants-of-a-more-diverse-species-heres-why-we-need-to-know-242011

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emma Ramsay, Research Affiliate in Climate Adaptation, Monash University

Every year, hundreds of thousands of Muslims undertake the Hajj –the sacred pilgrimage to Mecca. In 2024, the pilgrimage took place in mid-June, the start of the Saudi summer.

But this year, more than 1,300 pilgrims never made it home. Lethal heat combined with humidity proved deadly.

Our new research shows the upper limits of human heat tolerance were breached for a total of 43 hours over the six days of Hajj. During these periods, heat and humidity passed beyond the point at which our bodies are able to cool down.

Scientists are increasingly worried about the death toll caused by humid heatwaves, and how it will escalate in the near-term. This year is now the hottest year on record, overtaking the previous hottest year of 2023.

So why was the pilgrimage so deadly? And what does it mean for us as the climate changes?

What happened in Mecca?

As the planet gets hotter, it is also becoming more humid in many places, including arid Saudi Arabia. Since 1979, periods of extreme humid heat have more than doubled in frequency globally, increasing the chance of lethal events like this.

To do the Hajj, you have to walk between six and 21 kilometres each day. Many pilgrims are older and not in good health, making them more vulnerable to heat stress.

This year’s pilgrimage started on June 14. Over the next six days, the temperature topped 51°C, while “wet-bulb temperatures” (the combination of temperature and humidity) rose as high as 29.5°C.

June is typically the driest month in Saudi Arabia with average relative humidity around 25% and wet-bulb temperatures averaging 22°C. But during this year’s Hajj, humidity averaged 33% and rose as high as 75% during the most extreme periods of heat stress.

Our research shows heat tolerance limits for older adults were breached on all six days of Hajj, including four prolonged periods of more than six hours. On one ferocious day, June 18, humid heat hit levels considered dangerous even for young and healthy pilgrims. The points at which wet-bulb temperatures enter the lethal zone depend on the exact combinations of temperature and humidity, because our bodies respond differently to dry or humid heat.

Saudi authorities have installed air-conditioned shelters and other cooling methods. But these are only available to pilgrims with official permits. Most of those who died did not have permits, meaning they could not access cool relief.

The pilgrimage will be even more dangerous in the future. In 25 years time, the timing of Hajj will cycle back to peak summer in August and September. At 2°C of warming, the risk of heatstroke during Hajj would be ten times higher.

How much heat and humidity can we handle?

In 2010, researchers first proposed a theoretical “survival limit”, which is a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C.

But we now know the true limit is actually much lower. Experiments testing human physiological limits inside controlled heat chambers, backed up by sophisticated models, have revealed new heat tolerance limits.

These limits vary depending on your age and how humid it is. For example, the tolerance limit for young people is around 45°C at 25% humidity but only 34°C at 80% humidity. For older people, the limits are lower still – 32.5°C at 80% humidity is dangerous.

These limits are the point at which it is too hot and humid for your body to cool itself down, even at rest. Sustained exposure leads to your core body temperature rising, heatstroke and after a number of hours, death.

Many of us are familiar with air temperatures of 34°C and above. But we tolerate dry heat far better than humid heat. Humid conditions make it far harder for us to use our main way of shedding heat – sweat.

We rely on air to evaporate the sweat from our skin and take the heat with it. But humidity changes this. When there’s more water in the air, it’s harder for sweat to evaporate.

Humid heat is a rising threat worldwide

Heat is a quiet killer. It’s not a visible threat, unlike fires, floods, droughts and other climate-fuelled extreme weather. Heat-related deaths are difficult to track and are likely underestimated. But what we do know indicates heat is the deadliest climate hazard in many parts of the world. Until now, much research has focused on one variable – the air temperature. It’s only recently scientists have begun to untangle the lesser known threat of lethal humidity.

Humidity comes from evaporation off oceans and large bodies of water. As climate change heats up the oceans, they produce more moisture. That means coastal regions – home to many of the world’s largest cities – are vulnerable. That’s why arid Saudi Arabia and other nations on the Arabian Peninsula are particularly at risk – they are surrounded by shallow, warming seas.

But humidity can also travel far inland, through the phenomenon known as “atmospheric rivers”, airborne rivers of moisture. This is how episodes of lethal humidity can strike landlocked areas such as northern India.

The threat of humid heat is set to worsen sharply. We are already seeing lethal humid heat in the Arabian Gulf, across Bangladesh, northern India and parts of Pakistan, and in Southeast Asia.

People are dying from these events, but the extent is poorly documented. Heatwaves this year closed schools in the Philippines, India and Bangladesh and killed dozens during India’s election.

Without a rapid phase out of fossil fuels, we could see lethal humid heat hit multiple times a year in every major economy, including the United States, India, China, South America, Europe and large parts of Africa.

There is a limit to adaptation

We like to think we can adapt to change. But there is a hard limit to our ability to adapt to lethal humidity and heat.

Technological adaptations such as air-conditioning do work. But they are not available to all. Nor are they fail-safe.

During a heatwave, many of us turn on the aircon at the same time, using lots of power and raising the chance of blackouts. Blackouts during heatwaves can have deadly consequences.

In the famous first chapter of Kim Stanley Robinson’s novel, The Ministry For The Future, an American aid worker struggles to survive an intense humid heatwave in India, which kills millions. The book is set just a few years into the future.

The deaths during the Hajj warn us that lethal humid heat is not fiction. It’s yet another reason to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions by ending our reliance on fossil fuels.

Emma Ramsay is a member of the Lethal Humidity Global Council

Shanta Barley is the Chief Climate Scientist at the mining company Fortescue. She is a member of the Lethal Heat Humidity Global Council

– ref. More than 1,300 Hajj pilgrims died this year when humidity and heat pushed past survivable limits. It’s just the start – https://theconversation.com/more-than-1-300-hajj-pilgrims-died-this-year-when-humidity-and-heat-pushed-past-survivable-limits-its-just-the-start-245271

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jennifer Clark, Adjunct Professor of History, University of Adelaide

As students and teachers prepare to go on holidays, there’s a disagreement raging over a new school funding deal for 2025.

Queensland, New South Wales, South Australia and Victoria have all refused to sign up to the Albanese government’s offer for the next round of funding. This offer would see the federal government contribute 22.5% towards government school funding, up from 20%. But these state governments think it should be 25% instead.

As the disagreement rolls into next year, many Australians may not realise the federal government hasn’t always contributed to school funding.

The federal government has only been funding schools for 60 years. And it would not have happened if not for a Soviet satellite, an Australian prime minister and some science labs.

Schools have historically been funded by the states

Before 1964, the federal government resisted involvement in school education.

Legislation between 1872 and 1895 made colonial and then state governments responsible for government schools. Government funding for non-government schools was abolished as a result. So all independent schools, including Catholic parish schools, had to rely on fees and philanthropy.

But this all changed during the 1963 federal election campaign and the subsequent States Grants Act of 1964.

Enter the space race

In 1957 something dramatic happened.

At the height of the Cold War, the Soviet Union launched the first satellite, Sputnik. The then Liberal Prime Minister Robert Menzies called it a “spectacular act of technology and propaganda”. But others bluntly argued it signalled the failure of the West to keep up with science education. As American physicist George Henry Stine reportedly said: “Unless the US catches up fast we’re dead”.

Fortunately, Menzies had already commissioned Sir Keith Murray from the United Kingdom to review the state of Australia’s universities in 1956.

The Murray report, tabled a month before Sputnik, warned of weaknesses in Australian science education.

In a foreshadowing of concerns about students’ STEM skills today, the Murray report showed the number of students studying physics and maths was low. First year failure rates in university science courses were high because the students were not properly prepared at school. Science teachers were insufficiently trained. The curriculum was outdated and facilities and equipment were either inadequate or nonexistent.

In other words, in the age of Sputnik, science education was not good enough.

This was especially the case in girls’ schools (again echoed in today’s concerns about a gender gap in science achievement). Girls usually studied biology if they studied science at all, as science was seen as “better suited to boys”. The number of women who became science teachers was very small and there was little financial incentive to do so.

Schools had no labs to teach science

By far one of the greatest problems for Australia was the lack of suitable laboratories in schools to teach science.

The problem was so acute, headmaster R.L. Robson (from elite Sydney boys school Shore) and CSR chair F.E. Trigg established The Industrial Fund, to raise money to build science laboratories in “schools of standing”. The fund successfully raised £623,000 to support 37 projects in large private boys’ schools between 1958 and 1964. No girls’ schools were funded.

Menzies was well aware of The Industrial Fund because he was regularly invited to open the new buildings.

So, not only did Menzies understand the importance of science education for national defence in a post-Sputnik world, he was aware of Australian education failings from the Murray report. He was also reminded of a way to fix this, every time he opened a new science laboratory.

The 1963 election

Then a domestic political opportunity presented itself.

In 1963, the federal executive of the Labor Party reversed a NSW State Labor Party decision to support government aid for science to non-government schools. This gave Menzies a unique and timely electoral window to differentiate his party.

In the election campaign of 1963 Menzies proposed to build science laboratories in high schools “without discrimination”.

Historians have long argued Menzies’ policy shift was all about courting the Catholic vote in the tight 1963 election (which he ultimately won).

But the States Grants Act also went beyond Catholic schools. Students benefited regardless of whether they attended a state school or not and whether they were boys or girls. In the end, more than 500 schools either received assistance to build a lab or were recommended to receive it.

From labs to libraries and beyond

Commonwealth assistance to schools expanded rapidly in the late 1960s.

In 1968, the federal government began a grants program for school libraries. Per capita grants were introduced for private schools in 1969 and for public schools from 1972.

What had begun as a specific scheme to improve science education grew into an ongoing commitment to support school education in general.

As today’s school funding wars continue into 2025, it is worth remembering the unusual history behind the federal government’s involvement. And how for some, it is not a natural funding source for the school system.

Meanwhile, increasing students’ skills and engagement with science has been a concern in Australia for more than six decades.

Jennifer Clark does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How a Cold War satellite and Robert Menzies changed the way Australian schools are funded – https://theconversation.com/how-a-cold-war-satellite-and-robert-menzies-changed-the-way-australian-schools-are-funded-243012

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marcus Harmes, Professor in Pathways Education, University of Southern Queensland

Sending a letter to Santa can be difficult as no one can agree on where exactly Santa lives. Several countries are competing to claim Santa as one of their citizens.

Finland’s tourism industry suggests Korvatunturi in Lapland is where Santa keeps his workshop, and the link between Santa and Lapland brings in hundreds of millions of tourist dollars.

Danes say Santa is in Greenland. Sweden suggests Mora is the place, and has built the theme park Santaworld.

These places certainly look the part with white snow in winter and reindeer. They’re also close to the North Pole.

Not so jolly traditions

They also have old and often quite disturbing folklore about the man in red.

Pagan Finns celebrated St Knut’s Day in wintry January by having men in furry jackets, the nuuttipukki, go from house to house with a sack of presents. Except the nuuttipukki weren’t giving gifts and would likely make children cry. They came demanding gifts and would curse bad luck to any household not handing over a present.

Eventually the gift grabbing nuuttipukki became the gift giving Joulupukki. Like other northern traditions such as the Yule Lads of Iceland, this visitor gave gifts but only to well behaved children.

By the 19th century, Santa Claus was settled in popular awareness more or less what we think of now: a jolly old man with a beard, a sleigh, reindeer and presents, living somewhere northern and cold. That image built on but sanitised the more grotesque European folklores of elves, gnomes and other supernatural creatures who either brought or demanded gifts.

But standardising Santa’s appearance did not settle where he actually lived and worked.

In the mid-19th century the illustrator Thomas Nast portrayed Santa as a jolly old man in Harper’s Weekly, and the illustration and the archetype took off. But Nast just showed Santa in a wintry landscape.

It could have been the North Pole, and no one in 1866 had actually been to the Pole. No explorer reached there until 1926, leaving Santa, if he did live there, undisturbed in his workshop.

Santa and territorial disputes

The medieval and pagan mythologies in Finland and Scandinavia give some credibility to these countries’ efforts to claim Santa as their own. After all, these are old legends.

Other countries take a more modern approach. The Canadian government makes sure Christmas happens each year by allowing Santa to travel through Canadian airspace. Taking that a step further, in 2013 the Conservative government of Stephen Harper issued Santa and his wife with Canadian passports.

That action might seem twee or whimsical or simply some Christmas fun for children, but it may also have shown that some governments want to claim a lot more than Santa. Harper’s gesture came at a time of an international political dispute about ownership of the North Pole and specifically Canadian claims to Artic regions.

Somewhere hotter than the Pole

But are all these countries wrong, or being opportunistic?

Despite what we think, where Santa really comes from is a lot hotter and a lot further east – and those red robes would be uncomfortable to wear.

Santa Claus is a name derived from Sinterklaas or Saint Nicholas. Along with pagan elves and gnomes, another element in the long and very complex history of Santa is the Christian bishop St Nicholas of Smyrna. Or is that Nicholas of Myra?

Smyrna, now called Izmir in Turkey, and Myra, now Demre in Turkey, are both associated with Nicholas. Just as in northern Europe, different places in Anatolia compete to be associated with Santa.

Nicholas is patron saint of seemingly everything including archers and brewers but also children and sailors. The link with children explains the later association as Santa, especially as Saint Nicholas gave children gifts. The link with sailors is why his legend is known around the world.

A 2017 archaeological dig under the Church of Saint Nicholas in Turkey was believed to have found the burial place and therefore the body of Saint Nicholas.

A grave full of old bones is not very Christmas-like, but it may be an authentic link between a place and a person which no amount of snow or reindeer in northern Europe could match.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Where does Santa live? It’s a trickier question to answer than you may think – https://theconversation.com/where-does-santa-live-its-a-trickier-question-to-answer-than-you-may-think-243700

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katie Ekberg, Senior Lecturer, College of Nursing and Health Sciences, Flinders University

For many people, Christmas can be the most social time of the year. The holiday period is often filled with parties, lunches, dinners and celebrations of all kinds with family, friends and colleagues.

For adults with hearing loss, however, these social gatherings can bring unique challenges. Communicating with others can be difficult, particularly in group conversations. And the more background noise there is (for example, Christmas music or children playing), the harder it is.

For age-related or acquired hearing loss, hearing ability typically starts to decline from age 50 onwards. One in six Australians experience some hearing loss, so it’s possible someone around your Christmas dinner table will be struggling to hear.

Unfortunately, many adults with hearing loss suffer these challenges in silence. Our research shows adults with hearing loss often hide their hearing loss from others, even close family members and friends, because of feeling shame due to stigma.

But there are some things you can do to ensure a loved one with hearing loss is included this Christmas.

Read more:
‘I keep away from people’ – combined vision and hearing loss is isolating more and more older Australians

Stigma and stereotypes

Stigma is when someone is treated differently by others due to a particular physical or social attribute.

Across a series of studies, we conducted surveys and interviews with adults with hearing loss, their families and hearing care professionals to explore experiences of stigma for adults with hearing loss. Our research also included video recordings of real-life conversations between adults with hearing loss and their families and friends.

The results suggested people often associate hearing loss with negative stereotypes of ageing, disability, reduced intelligence, having a problem or weakness, and difference. For example, one participant with hearing loss told us:

Once they are aware that you can’t really comprehend or hear what they’re saying, they treat you different. And it’s not always positive, it’s quite often negative […] Even people who are familiar with you, my twin brother, he thinks that there’s something wrong with me because I can’t hear him properly.

Old age was the most common stereotype associated with hearing loss. For example, one adult with hearing loss commented:

I guess it’s just a sign of ageing. Like wearing glasses and grey hair.

But as hearing can start declining from middle age, many adults experiencing hearing difficulties do not fit this stereotype.

We see this stereotype appear in popular media as well. For example, in the TV show Bluey, the character Bingo dresses up as a “Can’t-Hear-Anything granny” in a number of episodes.

In our research, people with hearing loss reported feeling embarrassment, shame, frustration, sadness and fatigue from trying to manage their hearing difficulties during everyday conversations.

In the results of a survey currently under peer review, almost two-thirds felt other people laughed about or treated their hearing loss as a joke, often making them feel uncomfortable.

An example of this teasing can be seen in a real-life conversation we recorded with a grandfather with hearing loss and his extended family while having afternoon tea.

After the older man has ongoing trouble hearing his granddaughters, his wife teases him with the question “You got your hearing aids in Grandpa?”, which receives laughter from his son and granddaughters.

While this sort of teasing might seem light-hearted, it can cause someone with hearing loss to feel embarrassed when they have trouble hearing.

A key finding from our interview research was that adults with hearing loss respond to experiences of stigma by not telling others about their hearing loss.

Similarly, in an international survey of 331 adults with hearing loss, the results of which are yet to be published in a peer-reviewed journal, one in four had not told anyone about their hearing loss. Others only told certain people in specific circumstances.

There might, therefore, be family and friends at your Christmas gatherings facing the challenges of hearing loss without anyone knowing.

Supporting loved ones with hearing loss this Christmas

For adults with hearing loss, experiences of stigma can cause them to start to withdraw from social situations, participate less in conversations, and become more socially isolated and lonely.

But a greater awareness about hearing loss and inclusive communication can help tackle the stigma. Here are some simple ways you can be more inclusive of people with hearing loss this festive season:

1. Think about the location of your event – how noisy is it? When possible, choose restaurants and social settings that are quieter. Outdoor settings will generally be less noisy than indoor ones (apps such as The Ambient Menu can help you choose).

2. Turn down background noise if you can (for example, TV, radio, music).

3. Speak face-to-face as much as possible. This allows for lip-reading so that people are not just reliant on their hearing. If you know someone has difficulty hearing, move closer to them and talk clearly and slightly more slowly.

4. Arrange seating in a way that allows everyone to face each other. Round tables are best.

5. Give people the opportunity to choose where they are seated around a table or in a restaurant. Adults with hearing loss may position themselves in the middle of a table or next to specific people they need to hear.

6. If you are at an event with speeches, use a microphone when possible.

7. If you notice a person not joining in the conversation you could ask them if they can hear OK and, if not, what you can do to help.

Katie Ekberg received funding for this research from The Hearing Industry Research Consortium.

Louise Hickson receives funding from the Hearing Industry Research Consortium for the research reported in this article.

– ref. Christmas can be challenging for people with hearing loss. Here are 7 ways you can help – https://theconversation.com/christmas-can-be-challenging-for-people-with-hearing-loss-here-are-7-ways-you-can-help-245943

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra

After two successive surpluses, the federal budget will be back in deficit in 2024–25, according to the much-anticipated budget update released on Wednesday.

Known as the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO), the update shows the budget is forecast to stay in deficit in years to come.

The MYEFO is a little more downbeat than at budget time with lower growth and wage forecasts in the current financial year, but only by a quarter of one percent.

Overall, there has been little change in the economic forecasts. There is new spending, which increases deficits in the forward years, but again, this is small in percentage terms.

The path back to surpluses by 2034-35 remains much the same as previously forecast.

Heading back to the red

This year’s deficit was budgeted at A$28.3 billion (1% of gross domestic product) in the budget handed down in May. Treasury now expects the deficit to be $26.9 billion, a small decrease.

The deficit is forecast to increase further next year to $46.9 billion, compared with $42.8 billion forecast in the budget.

Treasury now expects $8.5 billion less company tax to be collected over the four years to 2027-28 than it thought at budget time. This is because it now expects mining exports to be more than $100 billion weaker than forecast.

The price of iron ore has fallen since the beginning of 2024 as the Chinese economy has slowed. China has long been Australia’s biggest importer of iron ore by a huge margin.

The falling price contrasts with most recent years when commodity prices turned out to be higher than Treasury’s cautious budget assumptions.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers had foreshadowed this impact in his recent ministerial statement on the economy and at a press conference on Monday.

Read more:
More spending and weaker revenue hits budget bottom line in some years: Chalmers

Government spending this year is now forecast to be $731.1 billion, $4.4 billion higher than in the budget. Numerous new payment measures in Wednesday’s statement including childcare, aged care, a remote employment service, and a raft of smaller initiatives.

Early childhood education is one of the highlighted areas. The government is investing $5 billion over five years – the biggest component of which is $3.6 billion for wage increases.

The government had foreshadowed an extra $1.8 billion in payments to veterans, and more spending on recovery funding for areas affected by disasters. But the budget update’s numbers could come unstuck depending on the nature of any future disasters.

The update includes a reconciliation table showing how much change since the last update is due to policy decisions and how much to “parameter variations”, that is, things outside government control.

In most updates, policy is outweighed by parameter changes. That is true for receipts in this economic outlook, but on payments the impact of policy is higher than parameters in 2024-25 and 2025-26.

The government’s critics have pointed out, in nominal dollar terms, this $42.7 billion deterioration from last year’s surplus to this year’s deficit, is the largest outside the COVID-affected years of 2019-20 and 2020-21.

Read more:
Deloitte predicts December budget update will show bottom line has worsened since May, in fiscal ‘thud’

But inflation and economic growth mean almost everything is larger now than it once was. A more meaningful comparison is to look at movements in the underlying cash balance relative to GDP.

A swing from a balance of 0.6% of GDP in 2023-24 to -1.0% in 2024-25 represents a drop of 1.6% of GDP. This would still be a smaller deterioration than occurred in 1975-76, 1982-83, 1991-92, 2008-09, 2009-10, 2013-14, 2019-20 and 2020-21 and comparable to those in 1983-84 and 1990-91.

It is nowhere as exceptional as some breathless commentary suggests.

A pre-election war chest

The mid-year outlook includes payments of $218.6 million in 2024-25 and $828.1 million in 2025-26 for “decisions taken but not yet announced”.

Read more:
$16 billion of the MYEFO budget update is ‘decisions taken but not yet announced’. Why budget for the unannounced?

This provision allows ministers to make new policy announcements after a budget or budget update without affecting the bottom line, because monies have already been allocated.

It’s incorrect to claim these are “already paid for”. These figures are merely estimates and future spending still needs authorisation.

It is reasonable for some spending decisions included in the contingency reserve not to be published for national security or commercial reasons. More troubling for honesty in budgeting is the use of this for political reasons.

Effectively, it means the government is holding off making announcements to maximise their political impact. Better practice, if a decision has been made, is to make it public.

There is no way to tell how much of the $828 million next year is commercial or security decisions, and how much is unannounced promises to be rolled out during the election campaign.

Economic activity outlook

Treasury has also updated the economic growth forecasts from the budget.

Real gross domestic product is now expected to grow by 1¾% (down from 2% in the May budget) this year and 2¼% (unchanged) next year. Donald Trump’s election in the United States will have created more uncertainty around these forecasts.

Read more:
What would a second Trump presidency mean for the global economy?

Inflation and interest rates

Inflation is forecast by Treasury to fall to 2¾% by mid-2025, and then stay within the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% inflation target band.

But much of the fall in inflation is due to temporary measures such as the electricity rebates, so there is a risk of inflation rising when these expire.

Will there be a budget before the election?

The government’s current parliamentary sitting program has a budget scheduled for March 25, 2025. This would be consistent with an election in May.

But the government is keeping open the option of calling an election for April and deferring the budget until after.

Either way, there will be a further budget update before we go to the polls. Treasury and the Department of Finance are required to release a Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook after an election is called.

John Hawkins was formerly a senior economist at the Reserve Bank and the Treasury.

Stephen Bartos is a former Deputy Secretary of the Department of Finance

– ref. If Treasury forecasts are right, it could be a decade before Australia is ‘back in black’ – https://theconversation.com/if-treasury-forecasts-are-right-it-could-be-a-decade-before-australia-is-back-in-black-245043

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amy Peden, NHMRC Research Fellow, School of Population Health & co-founder UNSW Beach Safety Research Group, UNSW Sydney

Australia is a nation of boaters, with one of the world’s highest rates of boat ownership. There are about one million registered vessels in Australia and one in ten Australians has a boat licence.

While an estimated 18% of the Australian population go boating each year, 29% of boaters say they are weak swimmers or cannot swim in the ocean. This makes wearing a lifejacket and avoiding alcohol when boating even more important.

While we often hear about the dangers of combining alcohol and swimming, it can also be dangerous to have a few drinks on the water.

If you’re taking the boat out this summer, or going to a Christmas or New Year’s Eve party on a boat, here’s what to know if you plan to drink alcohol.

There are alcohol limits, but not everywhere

Almost all Australian jurisdictions set a blood alcohol concentration limit of 0.05 for a skipper operating a recreational boat (the same as for a car driver on a full licence).

However, the Northern Territory doesn’t have an alcohol limit for recreational skippers. This is concerning given the NT, in particular the Top End, has Australia’s highest drowning rates for all activities and second highest for boating-related drowning.

Nationally, 9% of the 323 drowning deaths last financial year in Australia were due to boating. Men are ten times more likely to drown in boating and watercraft-related incidents than women. Older age groups are typically more at risk, peaking among 65-74 year-olds.

Men and women were just as likely to drown where alcohol was involved in a boating incident. But men had significantly higher blood alcohol concentrations – an average 0.134 or almost three times the upper legal limit.

Along our coast, surfers and jetski riders are among those who died by drowning at our beaches, most commonly after drug and/or alcohol use.

At our rivers, 41% of boating and watercraft-related drowning deaths involved alcohol. In more than half of these deaths, there was a blood alcohol concentration of at least 0.05.

‘Boater’s hypnosis’ is risky

Our survey at rivers shows people think it’s riskier to drink alcohol and drive on the road than it is to drink and operate a boat.

This is despite researchers suggesting there are added challenges on the water, including direct exposure to sun, wind, glare, vibration, noise and wave motion. This can produce a kind of “boater’s hypnosis”, which can reduce reaction times and increase errors in how people change course (change direction on the water).

Boaters who are drunk make ten times more errors when changing course than those who are sober.

How about passengers?

There’s no rule saying passengers need to be sober on board. But alcohol can lead to risk-taking behaviour and is regularly implicated in drowning deaths after falling or jumping from party boats and houseboats.

Drinking two standard drinks – for instance a large glass of wine or a can of craft beer – almost doubles the risk of most types of injuries.

Alcohol can make people overconfident in their capabilities, when objectively they are psychologically and physically impaired and less able to perform any activity.

Not knowing how alcohol can affect how well you swim, and thinking combining alcohol with water activities is normal and “Australian” can also fuel these behaviours.

Don’t forget your lifejacket

People who drink alcohol while boating are also less likely to wear a lifejacket.

Where alcohol is involved in drownings on our waterways, there is a greater likelihood of intoxication with other drugs. This combination increases the potential for impaired decision making, reaction times and swimming ability, increasing the risk of drowning and injury.

Young people are also susceptible to risk-taking and peer pressure in and around the water, particularly if alcohol is involved.

Why aren’t more people aware of this?

Australia has drowning prevention campaigns about the dangers of alcohol and aquatic activity. But these campaigns aren’t specific to boating and most haven’t been evaluated.

So aside from legislation and enforcement, such as breath-testing skippers, we don’t know what works to create sustained change in people’s behaviour specific to drinking and boating.

Tips to stay safe

If you plan to drink while boating, here are our top five tips:

1. Know the limit: in most states and territories skippers must have a blood alcohol concentration of 0.05 or below

2. Skippers beware: skippers are responsible for the safety of all on board, so it’s safer to avoid alcohol altogether while operating a boat

3. Passengers are at risk too: even drinking relatively small amounts of alcohol (for instance, a large glass of wine or can of craft beer) can make people overconfident, lead to risk taking, and doubles the risk of most types of injuries. If drinking heavily, these risks increase

4. Look out for your friends: encourage your friends to avoid drinking until back on shore, and keep an eye on those who are under the influence

5. Watch for children or other vulnerable people: stay sober if you have caring responsibilities, for instance being responsible for children or have elderly family or friends onboard.

Over the past five years, Amy Peden has received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Meta, Surf Life Saving Australia, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry and NSW Government Office of Sport. Dr Peden is affiliated with Royal Life Saving Society – Australia as an honorary senior research fellow.

In the past five years, Emmanuel Kuntsche has received funding from La Trobe University, National Health and Medical Research Council, Australian Research Council, Victorian Health Promotion Foundation, University of Bayreuth Centre of International Excellence ‘Alexander von Humboldt’, Veski Foundation, University of New South Wales, Foundation for Alcohol Research and Education, Healthy Canberra, Swiss National Science Foundation, Queensland Mental Health Commission, and New South Wales Department of Family and Community Services.

Hannah Calverley works for Life Saving Victoria. In the past five years she has received funding from Royal Life Saving Society Australia and Surf Life Saving Australia. She also sits on the Play It Safe By The Water Committee, which receives Victorian state government funding. She is affiliated with the International Drowning Researchers Alliance as a collaborator.

– ref. Let’s take the boat out! 5 tips on staying safe on the water if you fancy a drink – https://theconversation.com/lets-take-the-boat-out-5-tips-on-staying-safe-on-the-water-if-you-fancy-a-drink-243796

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amin Saikal, Emeritus Professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies, Australian National University

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has opened a new front for geopolitical competition in the Middle East.

Now, however, instead of Iran and Russia playing the most influential roles in Syria, Israel and Turkey see an opportunity to advance their conflicting national and regional security interests.

Under their respective leaders, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, relations between the two countries have deteriorated sharply in recent years. This sets the stage for a bitter showdown over Syria.

A new rivalry is emerging

Turkey is widely reported to have backed the offensive led by the Sunni rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to drive Assad from power, thus backstabbing Syria’s traditional allies, Iran and Russia.

Tehran has intimated that without Turkey’s support, HTS would have been unable to achieve its blistering takeover.

Now, with Assad gone, Erdoğan is believed to be positioning himself as de facto leader of the Sunni Muslim world. He also wants Turkey to be one of the dominant powers in the region.

Erdoğan has said if the Ottoman Empire had been divided in a different way following its defeat in the First World war, several Syrian cities, including Aleppo and Damascus, would have likely been part of modern-day Turkey.

Turkey immediately reopened its embassy in Damascus after Assad’s fall and offered help to HTS in shaping the country’s new Islamist order.

As part of this, Erdoğan has opposed any concession by HTS to the US-backed Kurdish minority in Syria’s northeast, which he regards as supporters of the Kurdish separatists in Turkey.

Meanwhile, Israel has taken advantage of the power vacuum in Syria to advance its territorial and security ambitions. It has launched a land incursion into the Syrian side of the strategic Golan Heights and has executed a massive bombardment of Syria’s military assets across the country.

Israel’s foreign minister said destroying these assets – which included ammunition depots, fighter jets, missiles and chemical weapons storage facilities – was necessary to ensure they didn’t fall into the “hands of extremists” that could pose a threat to the Jewish state.

Turkey sees Israel’s recent actions in Syria and the occupied Golan Heights as a land grab. Israel’s actions have also been denounced by Arab countries, who demand Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity be respected.

Israel is clearly concerned about the rise to power of an Islamist group and the transformation of Syria into a jihadist state.

This is despite the fact that HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa (also known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani) has signalled he does not want conflict with Israel. He’s also pledged not to allow any groups to use Syria for attacks on Israel.

At the same time, al-Sharaa has called for the withdrawal of Israel from Syrian territory according to a 1974 agreement that followed the 1973 Yom Kippur war.

Bitter foes

Erdoğan, Turkey’s moderate Islamist president, has long been a supporter of the Palestinian cause and a fierce critic of Israel. But tensions have significantly escalated between the two sides since the start of the Gaza war.

Erdoğan has called for an Arab-Islamic front to stop what he’s called Israel’s “genocide” in Gaza. He has equally berated Israel’s invasion of Lebanon earlier this year.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, has lashed out at Erdoğan over the years. He has called him a “joke” and “dictator” whose jails are full journalists and political prisoners. He has also accused of Erdoğan of committing a “genocide” of the Kurdish people.

Washington, which is allied to both Turkey and Israel, has launched intense diplomatic efforts to ensure that HTS moves Syria in a favourable direction. It is keen to see a post-Assad system of governance aligned with America’s interests.

These interests include HTS’ support for America’s Kurdish allies in northeast Syria and the continued presence of 1,000 American troops in the country. The US also wants HTS to continue to prevent the Islamic State terror group from regaining strength.

The US will also have to manage the emerging geopolitical rivalry between Israel and Turkey in Syria.

Some observers have not ruled out the possibility of an Israeli-Turkish military showdown, should Israel turn what it calls its temporary occupation of the demilitarised zone on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights into a permanent territorial acquisition.

This is not to say a war between them is imminent. But their clashing interests and the breadth of mutual hostility has certainly reached a new level.

Iran’s loss could be costly

For Iran, Assad’s ouster means the loss of a critical ally in its predominantly Shia “axis of resistance” against Israel and the United States.

The Iranian regime had worked hard to build this network over the last 45 years as a fundamental part of its national and wider security. It had propped up Assad’s minority Alawite dictatorship over the Sunni majority population in Syria at the cost of some US$30 billion (A$47 billion) since the popular uprising against Assad began in 2011.

And with Assad now gone, Iran is deprived of a vital land and air bridge to one of its key proxies – Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The Assad regime’s sudden demise is now causing soul searching in Tehran about the wisdom of its regional strategy – and whether it will have any significant role at all in the new Syria. This seems unlikely, as al-Sharaa (the leader of HTS) has declared his disdain for both Iran and Hezbollah.

Al-Sharaa has prioritised the establishment of a publicly mandated Islamist government and Syria’s reconstruction and national unity over a conflict with Israel, Iran’s arch enemy. This will no doubt lead to contention with the hardliners and reformists in Iran.

Only time will tell how all of this will play out. At this stage, the future of Syria and the region hangs in the balance. And much depends on whether HTS leaders will move to set up an all-inclusive political system and unite a Balkanised Syria.

Amin Saikal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. A bitter rivalry is emerging in the Middle East between two old adversaries over the future of Syria – https://theconversation.com/a-bitter-rivalry-is-emerging-in-the-middle-east-between-two-old-adversaries-over-the-future-of-syria-246035

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milad Haghani, Senior Lecturer of Urban Risk & Resilience, UNSW Sydney

The holidays are coming, airports are packed and emotions are running high. You’ve probably seen it or even been part of it: that tense moment when a passenger snaps at a flight attendant, or a near-meltdown over a seat reclining too far. Why does flying seem to bring out the worst in us?

Airplanes are, quite literally, a pressure cooker for emotions. For many, airports and airplanes are synonymous with anxiety, which often begins well before they step into the terminal.

These environments combine stress, discomfort and a loss of control, often leaving even the calmest travellers feeling on edge.

Planes also make inequalities bleedingly obvious. We’ve all experienced the envy of walking through first-class cabins to reach economy.

It’s easy to see why air rage has become so common. In fact, reported incidents have skyrocketed in recent years, exacerbated by pandemic-related anxieties.

So, let’s have a look at the science behind why we get so cranky when we fly. But more importantly, what we can do about it.

Air rage is getting worse

In recent years, reports of unruly passenger behaviour around the world have surged. Perhaps the most comprehensive indicator is the data compiled by the United States’ Federal Aviation Administration, which show a clear connection to the pandemic effect.

In 2021, the administration recorded 5,973 incidents of unruly passenger behaviour. This is a staggering 492% increase compared to the year before.

To put this in perspective, the four-year average of such incidents for the period 2017–2020 was 901.75 (2017: 544, 2018: 889, 2019: 1,161, 2020: 1,009).

While the numbers have decreased since their peak in 2021, they remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels.

In 2022, the administration reported 2,455 incidents, followed by 2,076 in 2023, and 1,954 so far in 2024 (with final numbers for the year still pending).

These incidents in the US alone have led to 402 enforcement actions initiated in 2023, compared to a pre-pandemic high of 83 in a single year. Since 2021, fines totalling more than US$21 million (A$32 million) have been levied as a result of such incidents.

The issue is not limited to the United States (although the US seems to have a higher share of such cases).

The International Air Transport Association reported an increase in unruly passenger incidents globally, with one incident per 568 flights in 2022 – up from one per 835 flights in 2021.

The most common types of incidents include non-compliance, verbally abusive behaviour and intoxication. Notably, while non-compliance incidents initially fell after mask mandates were removed on most flights, the frequency began to rise again in 2022, ending the year 37% higher than in 2021.

Examples of non-compliance include:

• smoking cigarettes, e-cigarettes, or vapes in the cabin or lavatories

• failing to fasten seatbelts when instructed

• exceeding carry-on baggage allowances or failing to store when required

• consuming personal alcohol on board.

What’s behind the air rage phenomenon

Scholarly research has highlighted that the phenomenon arises from an interplay of stressors unique to aviation.

Environmental stressors

Research consistently identifies the physical environment of airplanes as a significant contributor to passenger frustration and antisocial behaviour.

Factors such as cramped seating, limited personal space and high-density cabin configurations exacerbate discomfort and feelings of confinement.

Psychological factors such as anxiety, claustrophobia and aviophobia (fear of flying) can also trigger an unusual behaviour that the passenger may not show in other social contexts.

In some studies, physical discomfort, such as encroachments into personal space, has been found the leading trigger for anger among passengers.

Emotional triggers such as frustration over delays, long queues at the security check or unmet service expectations, can escalate minor grievances into disruptive outbursts.

Noise and hunger could further compound the situation. It can create a volatile atmosphere even before passengers acted out.

Research has also suggested that low-cost carriers, while not directly responsible for air rage, create environments conducive to disruptive behaviour due to reduced service levels, inadequate facilities and passenger stress from automation and cost-cutting measures.

Social stressors

The role of inequality within the cabin environment is another potent factor.

Research shows that airplanes serve as a microcosm of class-based society, with physical inequality (the presence of first-class cabins) and situational inequality (boarding through first-class sections) increasing the sense of frustration.

Interestingly, situational inequality can even affect first-class passengers, by highlighting their privileges, sometimes fostering a sense of entitlement that may lead to antisocial behaviour.

Alcohol use and nicotine withdrawal

Alcohol is a dominant precipitant of air rage incidents. Some studies have found that more than half of reported air rage cases involved alcohol intoxication, often fuelled by liberal airport alcohol policies and in-flight consumption.

Similarly, nicotine withdrawal was another factor, with nearly 9% of incidents attributed to smokers unable to satisfy their cravings during long flights.

Sociodemographic influences

Empirical data suggest sociodemographic factors play a significant role in air rage incidents.

One study examining 228 air rage cases found nearly 90% of incidents involved male passengers, with younger adults, particularly those aged 30–39, being the most frequently implicated.

Cultural norms and expectations around air travel also influence behaviour. They shape how passengers respond to delays, discomfort, breaches of etiquette or perceived inequities.

What can be done?

In the UK, airlines and airport authorities have implemented measures, such as Edinburgh’s “No Excuse for Abuse” campaign, to address the rise in disruptive behaviour. Such initiatives remind passengers to treat staff and fellow travellers with respect, while emphasising a zero-tolerance approach to aggression.

But tackling air rage requires more than just slogans.

De-escalation techniques and early recognition of disruptive behaviour can help diffuse situations before they escalate. Studies suggest experienced and well-trained crew members are better equipped to handle such incidents.

There are also simple things you can do to improve the flying experience.

1. You may choose to avoid overindulging in alcohol before or during the flight, even if it feels like a way to relax. Staying hydrated and opting for non-alcoholic beverages can help keep emotions in check.

2. Be mindful of others when reclining your seat, storing baggage, or navigating the aisle. A little courtesy can go a long way.

3. Reduce stress by arriving early, ensuring your documents are in order. Avoid rushing through the airport, which is often a recipe for heightened anxiety and irritability.

4. Travel can be stressful for everyone. Showing empathy and being polite, even in frustrating situations, can help de-escalate potential conflicts.

Ultimately, it may be helpful to remember that air travel isn’t always glamorous. Acknowledge that delays, discomfort and inconveniences are often part of the experience and accepting this reality can help reduce frustration.

Milad Haghani does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Flying this holiday season? Here’s why air travel makes us so cranky – and what to do about it – https://theconversation.com/flying-this-holiday-season-heres-why-air-travel-makes-us-so-cranky-and-what-to-do-about-it-246021

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The federal budget is headed for a deficit of $26.9 billion this financial year – $1.3 billion better than the estimate in May – but in the following three years the budget is forecast to be deeper in the red than earlier forecast.

The budget update, released by Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Finance Minister Katy Gallagher on Wednesday, shows a sluggish Australian economy and a cumulative deficit of $143.9 billion across the four years of the forward estimates. This compares to $122.1 billion in the May budget.

The update predicts a return to budget balance only in 2034-2035.

The Mid-year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) shows a comparatively modest potential election war chest of up to $218.6 million this financial year and $828.1 million in 2025-26. These are labelled in the update “decisions taken but not yet announced”.

But these annual figures are deceptive in relation to what will be actually promised for next year’s election, because much of the cost of promises would also be pushed into the outer years. Over four years the figure is $5.6 billion in payments.

A portion of the unannounced decisions would be for confidential commercial payments and the like.

The government has flagged more cost-of-living relief to be announced in coming months.

Average real spending growth is estimated to be 1.5% over the six years to 2027-28, which would be under the 30-year average.

The update includes gross savings of $14.6 billion.

The update says: “In the face of significant economic headwinds, the Australian economy is on track for a soft landing”.

Despite difficult circumstances, “there has been encouraging progress on a number of fronts. The economy has continued to grow, inflation has moderated substantially, over a million jobs have been created since the middle of 2022, the participation rate is near record highs, real wage and disposable income growth has returned, the gender pay gap is at record lows and business investment is at near decades highs.”

The update shows inflation of 2.75% in 2024-25, within the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3%. But this will still include the effect of government cost-of living relief, which the bank discounts when considering interest rate movements.

Unemployment, at 3.9% currently, is forecast to rise to 4.5% this financial year.

Economic growth is forecast to be 1.75% this financial year, up from 1.4% in 2023-24, and 2.75% in 2025-26. The improvement in growth is “expected to be supported by a gradual recovery in household consumption”.

Wages are forecast to grow 3%, down from the outcome for the 2023-24 year of 4.1%.

“Government’s cost-of-living tax cuts, together with the anticipated easing in inflationary pressures and continuing employment and wage growth are expected to drive growth in real household disposable incomes in 2024–25,” the update says.

The upgrades in tax receipts are much more modest this year than the $80 billion upgrades on average in the last four budget updates.

Excluding GST and policy decisions, tax receipts have been revised up by $7.3 billion over the years to 2027-28. For the first time since the 2020-21 budget company receipts have been revised down, reflecting weaker commodity volumes as a result of the weakness of the Chinese economy.

Net debt in 2024-25 is $540 billion, a decrease of $12.5 billion from the budget.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. A return to balanced budgets is a decade away, mid-year update says – https://theconversation.com/a-return-to-balanced-budgets-is-a-decade-away-mid-year-update-says-246152

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A national Essential poll
, conducted December 11–15 from a sample of 1,151, gave the Coalition a 48–47 lead including undecided, unchanged from the late November Essential poll. Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 30% Labor (down two), 13% Greens (up two), 6% One Nation (down two), 1% UAP (steady), 11% for all Others (up two) and 5% undecided (steady).

Essential uses respondent preferences. By 2022 election preference flows, Labor would lead by about 52–48 from these primary votes.

Analyst Kevin Bonham’s aggregate of national polls has the Coalition leading by 50.3–49.7 by 2022 preference flows, the worst for Labor this term. Respondent preference polls from Essential and Morgan have been worse for Labor than the 2022 method, and Bonham is adjusting for a likely pro-Coalition shift of One Nation preferences.

By the assumption of greater One Nation preference flows to the Coalition, the Coalition leads by 50.8–49.2. With the next election due by May 2025, Labor’s position is recoverable, but currently poor.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval slumped six points in Essential since November to -11, with 50% disapproving and 39% approving. This is his worst net approval in this poll, beating a -10 net approval in August. Peter Dutton’s net approval improved two points to +3.

A simple average of the four December polls that have asked for leaders’ ratings has Albanese at -17 net approval while Dutton is at -3.5. These polls include last week’s Newspoll and Resolve and this week’s Essential and Freshwater. The Poll Bludger’s BludgerTrack graphs show the continued drop in Albanese’s net approval.

I believe the bad polls for Labor are partly due to the very negative media commentary on the September quarter GDP figures, which were released December 4. Morgan’s consumer confidence index has dropped 4.5 points in the last two weeks to 83.9, the lowest it has been since early October.

More on Essential

By 51–31, voters thought Australia was on the wrong track (48–35 in November). By 40–25, voters said they were worse off than three years ago, rather than better off. This is better than the 59–13 for worse off in Resolve, but Resolve asked for a comparison to the last election, not three years ago.

By 68–32, respondents said who would make them better off in three years was more important to their vote than whether they were better off in the last three years.

2024 was seen as a better year than 2023 on most measures considered, with “you and your family” at net zero on whether 2024 was a good or bad year, up 12 points on 2023. But the Australian economy was at net -36, up five points.

Respondents were optimistic about 2025, with 37% expecting it to be better for Australia than 2024, 21% worse and 25% saying there would be no difference.

Freshwater poll: Coalition retains narrow lead

A national Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted December 13–15 from a sample of 1,051, had the Coalition ahead by 51–49, unchanged from the November Freshwater poll. Primary votes were also unchanged, with the Coalition on 40%, Labor 30%, the Greens 14% and all Others 16%.

After the previous Freshwater poll, I said rounding probably contributed to the Coalition’s lead, and this still holds in the current poll.

Albanese’s net approval was steady at -17 with 51% unfavourable and 34% favourable. Dutton’s net approval was up one point to -3. Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 46–43 (43–42 in November).

There was an improvement for Labor in perceptions of which party would be best to handle various issues. The Coalition led Labor by ten points on the cost of living, down from 12 points in November. On managing the economy, the Coalition led by 13 poins, down from 17.

Morgan poll Labor’s worst this term

A national Morgan poll, conducted December 9–15 from a sample of 1,672, gave the Coalition a 52–48 lead, unchanged since the December 2–8 Morgan poll.

Primary votes were 41% Coalition (up three), 27.5% Labor (down 0.5), 12.5% Greens (down 0.5), 5% One Nation (down 1.5), 10.5% independents (steady) and 3.5% others (down 0.5).

The headline figure uses respondent preferences. By 2022 election preference flows, the Coalition led by 51.5–48.5, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition. By this measure, this poll is Labor’s worst this term. Better preference flows for Labor this week disguised ugly primary vote figures that gave the Coalition their two-party gain by 2022 flows.

The previous Morgan poll gave the Coalition a 52–48 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the late November Morgan poll. This was the Coalition’s largest lead in five months.

Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down 0.5), 28% Labor (down two), 13% Greens (up 0.5), 6.5% One Nation (steady), 10.5% independents (up two) and 4% others (steady). By 2022 election preference flows, there was an unchanged 50–50 tie.

Additional Resolve questions

The national December Resolve poll for Nine newspapers was Labor’s worst from Resolve this term. In additional questions, respondents strongly favoured four immigration law changes, with the weakest support for immigration detainees being sent to a third country if they would be endangered by returning to their source country (44–23 support).

On nuclear power, 34% supported it (up two since June), 28% were opposed (steady), 24% said they didn’t have a strong view but were open to the government investigating its use (down six) and 14% were undecided (up four).

On taxpayer subsidies for power sources, 45% supported subsidising rooftop solar, 33% renewables in general, 21% nuclear-powered electricity, 20% natural gas-powered electricity and 13% coal-fired electricity.

By 58–18, respondents supported the under-16 social media ban, but by 67–25 they were not confident the ban would work. By 45–42, respondents said it was unlikely they would provide their ID to the platforms they use.

Unemployment rate drops to 3.9%

The Australian Bureau of Statistics said last Thursday that the unemployment rate was 3.9% in November, down 0.2% since October and the lowest unemployment rate since March. The employment population ratio (the share of eligible Australians that are employed) was up 0.1% to 64.4%, an equal record high.

The ABC’s report indicated that the strong jobs data decreased the probability of the Reserve Bank cutting interest rates in early 2025.

NSW Resolve poll and upcoming Victorian byelection

A New South Wales state Resolve poll for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted with the federal November and December Resolve polls from a sample of over 1,000, gave the Coalition 37% of the primary vote (steady since October), Labor 33% (up one), the Greens 11% (steady), independents 13% (down one) and others 7% (up one).

Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-party estimate, but Labor would retain their slight lead from October. Labor incumbent Chris Minns led the Liberals’ Mark Speakman as preferred premier by 35–17 (37–14 in October).

A byelection will be needed in the Victorian Labor-held state seat of Werribee after Treasurer Tim Pallas resigned on Monday. At the 2022 state election, Pallas defeated the Liberals in Werribee by a 60.9–39.1 margin.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Labor and Albanese end 2024 in worst poll position this term – https://theconversation.com/labor-and-albanese-end-2024-in-worst-poll-position-this-term-245846

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elianne Albath, Postdoctoral Research Associate in Social Psychology, University of Basel

Conspiracy theories have always been a part of society, offering explanations – sometimes simple, often elaborate – for complex events.

Some have uncovered genuine conspiracies, such as the Watergate scandal. Most lack substance but are nevertheless widely believed. For instance, the idea that the moon landing was staged has persisted for decades despite substantial evidence to the contrary.

What drives people to adopt these beliefs? Researchers have been investigating the underlying mechanisms that foster conspiracy beliefs and our new study adds another piece to this puzzle.

Using data from more than 55,000 people who participated in the longitudinal New Zealand attitudes and values study, we found certain core psychological needs attract people to conspiracy theories. When these needs go unmet over long periods of time, people are more likely to turn to conspiracy beliefs, possibly as a way to fulfil these needs.

Why conspiracy beliefs hold such appeal

Past research suggests three core motivations that can underlie conspiracy belief.

First, people have an epistemic motive (relating to knowledge) to restore understanding and clarity about the world. Second, people’s existential motive captures the need for control and security, particularly in unpredictable situations. Finally, people have a social motive to belong and maintain a sense of shared identity.

Together, these motives help explain why some people turn to conspiracy theories to make sense of situations in which they feel powerless or disconnected. Events such as the COVID pandemic provide fertile ground for these beliefs to take hold.

However, there are clear negative consequences of conspiracy beliefs. They often foster distrust in authorities, encourage the spread of misinformation and, in some cases, make people take actions that harm society as a whole.

By understanding the psychological needs behind these beliefs, we can start to address them at their root.

Core needs linked to conspiracy beliefs

Our research focused on four key psychological needs closely linked to the three motives above: control, belonging, self-esteem and meaning in life.

We initially thought all these needs would drive conspiracy belief, but our findings reveal that unmet needs for control and belonging are the strongest predictors. Here are our main findings:

1. The need for control: People turn to conspiracy beliefs when they feel powerless in their lives. Closely linked to the existential motive, conspiracy theories allow people to explain events as part of a hidden plot, giving them a sense of control – albeit a misplaced one.

Our data show control had the strongest link to conspiracy belief among the four needs we studied. Thus, when people feel powerless, they are more inclined to believe in forces working behind the scenes.

2. The need to belong: Feeling connected to others is essential for our wellbeing. For those who feel isolated or marginalised, conspiracy groups can provide a community that validates their views.

Our data reveal that a lack of belonging significantly increased the likelihood of believing in conspiracy theories. People who struggle to feel accepted may be drawn to groups that share alternative explanations, providing a sense of identity and mutual understanding.

3. Self-esteem and meaning in life: Surprisingly, these needs didn’t play as big a role as we expected. However, among people who experienced increases in their sense of meaning in life over time, we found they were slightly more likely to believe conspiracies at later time points. This finding goes against the idea that only unmet needs foster conspiracy belief and raises important questions for future research.

4. Conspiracy belief can worsen unmet needs: We also tracked changes in conspiracy belief and their impact on psychological needs over time. When individuals held stronger conspiracy beliefs, they were less likely to experience control and belonging in subsequent years.

Thus, although unmet needs can drive people toward conspiracy belief, conspiracy beliefs can further erode these same needs, potentially creating a self-reinforcing cycle of mistrust and disconnection.

Learning from longitudinal data

Unlike most studies which provide only a snapshot in time, our research followed participants over several years. This approach allowed us to examine how changes in psychological needs precede shifts in conspiracy belief.

By taking this broader perspective, our results reveal that, although conspiracy beliefs are relatively stable, they can be influenced by feelings of disconnection or loss of control.

Conspiracy belief stems, in part, from unmet needs to belong and feel a sense of control. This helps us understand who may be most likely to believe in conspiracy theories in the future.

Recognising who is most at risk then allows us to develop targeted tools to reduce the allure of conspiracy theories and foster a society grounded in trust and open dialogue. Grasping the “why” behind these beliefs is the first step in building resilience against misinformation in our communities.

The New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study is funded by a grant from the Templeton Religion Trust.

John Kerr works for the Public Health Communication Centre, which is funded by a philanthropic endowment from the Gama Foundation.

Danny Osborne, Elianne Albath, and Mathew Marques do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How feelings of disconnection and lack of control fuel conspiracy beliefs – new research – https://theconversation.com/how-feelings-of-disconnection-and-lack-of-control-fuel-conspiracy-beliefs-new-research-242387

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa J. Hackett, Lecturer, Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, University of New England

As we prepare our Christmas fare – a hot roast with all the trimmings, a seafood smorgasbord or a beach-side barbecue – it is timely to think about what others have on their Christmas menus.

We’ve been questioning: do the British royals eat what we do?

Mostly, they probably do today, but in the past not so much.

Medieval and Georgian Christmas fare

While the Victorian era is the one most associated with modern Christmas traditions, Christmas was celebrated by earlier monarchs too.

During the medieval period in England, Christmas was time for reflection rather than fun and the Catholic Church banned gift giving. But mince pies emerged in this period. The addition of cinnamon, cloves and nutmeg to meat pies was meant to symbolise the gifts bestowed by the three wise men on Jesus. By the late Victorian period, the meat was replaced by dried fruit dressed in the traditional spice combination, which continues today.

Game pies were also popular in the era for Christmas, with goose and venison the preferred filling of royals.

In 17th century England, Oliver Cromwell’s Puritanical government banned Christmas. In 1647, Christmas feasting, alcohol and singing was banned – but many continued Christmas traditions in secret. King Charles II, on his restoration, reinstated Christmas in 1660.

Under the Georgians, Christmas celebrations reached new heights with feasts typically lasting for 12 nights.

The 12th Night Cake, a fruit cake with frosting and sugar paste embellishments, likely stemmed from the tradition of both Christmas and wedding cake.

A typical Georgian-era royal Christmas feast consisted of cheeses, soups, turkey, goose, duck, and mince pies. George I’s love of the Christmas plum pudding earned himself the nickname “Pudding King”.

Celebrating 12th Night was later banned by Queen Victoria in 1860 due to its association with paganism.

Queen Victoria’s 1894 Christmas dinner

In 1894, Queen Victoria hosted Christmas at Osborne House on the Isle of Wight. Dinner started at 9pm, the menu written in French.

The tradition of composing menus in French for royal occasions has its origins in the Norman Conquest of the 11th century, which established French as the official language of the English court. This practice continues by the royal family today, particularly for formal dinners and state occasions.

On the menu in 1894 was a calf’s head consommé garnished with truffle quenelles, cockscombs and mushrooms, followed by carrot soup flavoured with celery and ham, then salmon steaks dressed with hollandaise sauce.

Next served were crumbed fried fillets of sole and moulds of puréed pheasant meat, macaroni with tomato sauce, cheese, ham, pickled tongue, mushrooms, and truffles.

Also served were roast beef with Yorkshire puddings and roast turkey served with braised chestnuts, glazed pearl onions, mushrooms, bacon and chipolata sausage, and a chine (backbone) of pork. Asparagus spears dressed in a white sauce accompanied the meat.

Mince pies, plum puddings and jellied orange flavoured custards served with cream were served for dessert.

As was the custom in historical royal courts, a sideboard of assorted meats was also available. The sideboard included a baron of beef (sirloins joined at the backbone) and a wild boar’s head, a gift from the Emperor of Germany Wilhelm II, the eldest of Victoria’s 42 grandchildren.

The Lord Lieutenant of Ireland Lord Cadogan gave a gift of a woodcock pie, accompanied by a game pie, brawn (a terrine made of pork or veal) and a terrine of foie gras.

The meal was served with 12 bottles of wine – a gift from the Emperor of Austria, from his personal vineyards.

Dinner concluded with Stilton cheese and plates of fruit, in case anyone was still hungry.

The meal was prepared at Windsor Castle and then transported by royal yacht to Osborne, arriving on Christmas Eve. The menu for Victoria’s New Year’s Day meal likely featured remnants from the Christmas lunch – something we can relate to, if not the eating of cockscombs or calf’s head consommé.

Modern royal Christmas menus

Today’s royal family have a more familiar Christmas menu.

On Queen Elizabeth II’s 2014 dinner menu was roast turkey with sage and chestnut stuffing, Brussels sprouts, buttered carrots, roast parsnips and potatoes. Iced gingerbread with oranges in syrup was served for dessert.

Under King Charles III in 2023, the family ate a typical roast turkey lunch, followed by afternoon tea of cake, scones, mince pies, sandwiches and Christmas fruit cake with royal icing and marzipan.

The final meal of today’s Christmas is the evening buffet, more elaborate than Christmas lunch. It includes Stilton cheese and decorated York ham. It is also the only time the head chef will go into the dining room to carve the meat. One thing missing from the table today is foie gras: on becoming king, Charles banned foie gras at all royal residences.

Despite the menu, which may seem more common to us, the royal family do have some unusual habits. On Christmas day, the royal men and women have breakfast separately. The royal men are served a full English breakfast. The royal women are served fruit, toast and coffee in their rooms. Royal children eat in the nursery with their nannies, which they will continue to do each year until they are considered “old enough to conduct themselves properly at the dining table”.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Calf’s head consommé with truffle quenelles: a history of what the royals ate for Christmas, from the exotic to the everyday – https://theconversation.com/calfs-head-consomme-with-truffle-quenelles-a-history-of-what-the-royals-ate-for-christmas-from-the-exotic-to-the-everyday-245474

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alison Blair, Teaching Fellow in Music, University of Otago

Are you hanging up your stocking on your wall?
It’s the time that every Santa has a ball!

You’ve probably just heard the 1973 Slade classic at the mall or supermarket. Merry Xmas Everybody is one of the most enduring Christmas singles of all time: three-and-a-half minutes of festive rock n’ roll, it’s infectiously joyful, raucous – and, most of all, Christmassy.

Written by band members Noddy Holder and Jim Lea, Merry Xmas Everybody celebrates the exuberance of a working-class Christmas Day: waiting for family to arrive, wishing for snow, whizzing down the hill in a homemade buggy and falling off, drinking and dancing.

Even granny is “up and rock ‘n’ rolling with the rest”. Santa not only rides a red-nosed reindeer, he does “ton-ups on his sleigh”.

With its Beatles-esque refrain and harmonies, the ring of a harmonium organ and singalong chorus, Merry Xmas Everybody is far from your traditional White Christmas or Jingle Bells. It’s Slade’s Christmas, and we’re all invited:

So here it is, Merry Christmas, everybody’s having fun
Look to the future now, it’s only just begun.

And back in the British winter of 1973, people really did need some fun, and reason to look to the future with hope. Wage freezes, rising inflation, strikes and general discontent had made for anything but a merry Christmas.

The glam and the grim

Slade were one of the top British glam rock bands of the 1970s. With a stomping rock n’ roll sound and the high-energy, raspy vocals of Noddy Holder, they embodied no-frills party rock, tinged with a good dose of humour.

With six number one singles and 24 top tens – including glam standards like Look Wot U Dun, Mama Weer All Crazee Now, Take Me Back ‘Ome and Cum on Feel the Noize – Slade’s appeal lay in their marriage of glitter-rock sparkle and rowdy, working-class attitude.

And there was good reason for Slade’s – and glam rock’s – popularity when Merry Xmas Everybody hit big: escapism.

1973 was a tough year in Britain. Conservative prime minister Edward Heath had used the Industrial Relations Act to try to curb the trade unions’ power, triggering widespread strike action, including 1.6 million workers taking part in a one-day strike on May 1.

By November, winter was approaching. Electricity supplies relied on coal, which was now limited. A state of emergency was declared. In the cold of winter, people were instructed to switch off their heaters. Television broadcasts ended by 10.30pm.

The Trafalgar Square Christmas tree reportedly remained unlit that year, except for Christmas Day.

Just two weeks before Christmas, a three-day working week was announced, to come into effect at midnight on December 31. This would force businesses to close to conserve electricity, meaning many workers either went part-time or simply lost their jobs.

Noddy Holder has described writing Merry Xmas Everybody to give people something to enjoy in those tough times. It might not be quite the same, but after 2024’s cost-of-living pressures and plenty of political instability, the song still feels relevant today.

A half-century hit

Noddy Holder knew what he was doing. The product of a Wolverhampton council estate, he was proud of his working-class background but never took himself too seriously. He wore tartan stage costumes and an exaggerated top hat decorated with silver discs that caught the TV lights.

Guitarist Dave Hill – the most flamboyant band member – styled himself as “Super Yob”, a working-class superhero decked out in more glitter than a department store Christmas tree. They were brash, brightly costumed, and they were here to party.

Glam rock dominated the music charts in 1973, including The Sweet’s Block Buster! and Ballroom Blitz, Suzi Quatro’s Can the Can and 48 Crash, and T. Rex’s 20th Century Boy. David Bowie released Life on Mars? and The Jean Genie. And Wizzard’s See My Baby Jive went to number one – as did Slade’s Cum on Feel the Noize.

By December, Slade’s closest competition was Wizzard’s Christmas single, I Wish It Could Be Christmas Every Day, a merry, 1960s-style romp punctuated with the ironic ring of cash registers. Vocalist Roy Wood appeared on TV dressed as a bizarre glam rock Santa.

In the end, Slade won out, taking the vaunted Christmas number one slot and staying there for nine weeks. The music was a reworked psychedelic tune Holder had begun writing in 1967, with bassist Jim Lea adding the verses. The band borrowed the harmonium from John Lennon who was recording in the studio next door.

At the end of the song, Noddy screams, “It’s Chrissstmasss!”. It was an expression of joy in the face of everyday troubles, but also of solidarity and resilience. The band’s television performances of the song were euphoric.

Now, 51 years later, the song has spent over 120 weeks in the charts, often returning for several Christmases in a row. Noddy Holder, now 78, often jokes about the royalties providing his pension.

And Merry Xmas Everybody is back in the charts again this year. That’s testament to the song’s own resilience, and its timeless appeal to having a good time, even when times are tough.

Alison Blair does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Glam tidings of joy: how Slade made Merry Xmas Everybody a seasonal hit for the ages – https://theconversation.com/glam-tidings-of-joy-how-slade-made-merry-xmas-everybody-a-seasonal-hit-for-the-ages-245469

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Denis Muller, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Advancing Journalism, The University of Melbourne

Aspects of Hugh Marks’s record as chief executive of the Nine Entertainment Company raise questions about his suitability for the position of managing director of the ABC, to which he has just been appointed.

Those aspects concern political independence, internal culture and news leadership, all issues of pressing concern at the ABC.

On political independence, during Marks’s tenure as chief of Nine he hosted a $10,000-a-head fundraising dinner for the Liberal Party at which the guests of honour were the then prime minister, Scott Morrison, and communications minister Paul Fletcher. The event was organised by the Liberal Party’s fundraising arm, the Australian Business Network.

This came as a shock to journalists at the three major newspapers owned by Nine: The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and The Australian Financial Review. They protested, and Marks admitted hosting the dinner was a mistake.

On culture, in May 2024 allegations came to light that Nine’s long-time news director, Darren Wick, had for decades got away with drunkenly groping women. This unleashed a cascade of allegations by women about the culture inside Nine that had existed for many years, including the period when Marks was chief executive. He has said he didn’t know anything about it and was shocked by what was revealed.

By the time these allegations emerged, Marks had been gone for four years, having abruptly left the company after The Australian newspaper reported that as chief executive he was in a sexual relationship with a subordinate.

Now he is to find himself leading an organisation that is in the midst of developing a response to an external review of its own culture, which found systemic racism across the ABC.

On news leadership, like his predecessors David Anderson and Michelle Guthrie, Marks does not have a background in journalism, yet becomes ex officio editor-in-chief of the ABC.

That has proved a weakness in the past – Guthrie once said publicly she was not responsible for every story that appeared on the ABC.

The appointment of Marks seems unlikely to remedy this weakness, which has laid the ABC open to accusations it fails to adequately protect its journalists from external attack.

Other aspects of Marks’s career, however, clearly carried decisive weight with the ABC board.

A graduate in law and finance from the University of New South Wales, Marks joined Nine as legal counsel in 1995. Two years later, he became director of film and television for the network and was recognised internally for his work on audience measurement.

In 2003 he left Nine to head a television distribution company, Southern Star Group. Under his leadership it produced hit shows such as Big Brother for Ten and Deal or No Deal for Seven.

A decade later he returned to the Nine network as a non-executive director, and was appointed chief executive in 2015.

In 2018, he engineered Nine’s takeover of the Fairfax media empire, creating Australia’s largest commercial media group with major interests in newspapers, radio, television and streaming services.

Nine’s takeover of Fairfax provided a lifeline for those three big mastheads, which had been caught utterly unprepared by the onslaught on their advertising revenues from internet platforms in areas such as real estate, employment and motor vehicles.

Those mastheads have continued to assert their editorial independence despite Nine’s questionable corporate-level management of political relationships and internal culture. However, the editorial content of the Herald and The Age, taken as a whole, has drifted downstream since the takeover.

Excellent pockets of public interest journalism remain, notably in their political analysis and the incomparable work of their investigative teams. However, soft news and lifestyle content have grown at the expense of broader coverage of political issues, leaving that territory more open to the propagandising of News Corp than is good for Australian democracy.

Given the repeated assertions by the ABC chair, Kim Williams, that the ABC needs to strike a better balance between lifestyle content and public-interest journalism, it is an open question how well-equipped Marks is to achieve this shift.

After his departure from Nine in 2020, Marks founded Dreamchaser, a successful television content production and distribution studio.

It is these business credentials that are clearly attractive to the ABC. In a statement announcing his appointment, the ABC said he was a standout candidate with a strong track record of leading media organisations and driving substantial and sustained audience engagement.

This might indicate a desire on the part of the ABC board to inject a more popularising approach to its entertainment content.

Williams has shown himself to be an activist chair, particularly in editorial matters, so perhaps there is an understanding that Marks will focus primarily on wider content strategy and corporate management. But the fact remains that when he takes over in March 2025, Marks will become the ABC’s editor-in-chief.

From the outside it looks like an odd appointment. But Williams is a change agent, and it may be safely assumed this is part of the new direction he has sketched out for the ABC, the ultimate destination of which remains difficult to discern.

Denis Muller does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Hugh Marks is the new managing director of the ABC. Is he the right person for the job? – https://theconversation.com/hugh-marks-is-the-new-managing-director-of-the-abc-is-he-the-right-person-for-the-job-246124

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ailie Gallant, Associate Professor, ARC Centre of Excellence for Weather of the 21st Century, Monash University

As a dome of heat developed over north and central Australia last weekend, parts of the country braced themselves for their first taste of summer temperatures well in excess of 40°C. Some areas expected their hottest temperatures since the Black Summer of 2019–20.

The southeast was on high alert, with searing heat and gusty winds expected, bringing the threat of extreme fire conditions through South Australia and Victoria on Monday and into New South Wales on Tuesday. The north and central parts of Australia were expected to swelter through the week.

But as the furnace drew closer, many people who kept a watchful eye on the forecast would have noticed something. In some parts of the country, the forecast bounced around in the lead up to the event.

For example, in the week leading up to the day of extreme heat on Monday, the forecast for Melbourne flip-flopped between approximately 35°C and 42°C, settling on 41°C for a couple of days before the event.

So what was it going to be? Just a very warm, but manageable day? Or the kind of highly unusual heat not experienced for several years?

Weather forecasting is a science, not an art

Predicting anything about the future, with accuracy, is hard.

Think about a forecast for your day tomorrow. You might predict that you will get up, eat breakfast, get the kids ready, go to work, finish a report, have a meeting, do some Christmas shopping, pick up the kids, and cook dinner.

But reality might differ from what you predicted. Your meeting might run late, causing you to skip the shopping, for example.

Forecasting your day a week ahead of time is even harder, because there are more things that will change because of decisions you make in the next couple of days (like whether or not you’ll have a spare hour to get that Christmas shopping done on the weekend).

Weather forecasts work the same way. For an accurate forecast, we need to know (as best we can) what is happening in the atmosphere right now, based on millions of observations taken around the world. We then use computer models that take the state of the weather now and use physical equations to project that state forward in time, which gives us a weather forecast.

Like our personal plans for this time next week, weather forecasts 7–10 days ahead provide only a rough guide of what to expect. Small, seemingly insignificant errors in atmospheric measurements grow over time, leading to big changes in the forecast, known as the “butterfly effect”.

The further ahead we predict, the more these errors accumulate.

To counter this, forecasters run models multiple times based on slightly different versions of the current atmosphere. This creates an ensemble of forecasts showing a range of possible outcomes. The more these forecasts agree, the more certain we are about the upcoming weather.

Prediction ping-pong

So why do weather forecasts change? It happens because of the range of possible outcomes – our ensemble of forecasts – just described. And sometimes, little changes in the forecast can make a big difference to the outcome.

Let’s take the example of the extreme heat in Melbourne on Monday. The precise forecast of the maximum temperature depended on two main factors: the timing of the cold front and cloud cover.

A cold front was expected to come through and end the high temperatures, but when? If it crossed in the afternoon, temperatures might peak in the mid to high 30s, but if it didn’t arrive until the evening the mercury might hit the low 40s.

Additionally, more cloud cover would lower the temperature, and less cloud cover would increase it.

As it turns out, the official Bureau of Meteorology maximum temperature forecast was for 41°C across the broader Melbourne metro area. And while Geelong and the western suburbs hit at or very near that mark, the city and eastern suburbs remained below 40°C (just), hitting 39.4°C at the city’s Olympic Park station near 6pm.

But several stations in east and southeast Melbourne barely cracked 37–38°C. The culprit in this case was cloud cover, which persisted over the city centre and the east, but largely cleared to the city’s west.

Should we trust weather forecasts?

Weather forecasting is not always perfect, but it is useful and forecasts are trustworthy.

Take this heat event: forecasts first showed that Monday would be extremely hot up to ten days prior and were showing the possibility of a 40°C day for Melbourne up to seven days ahead.

Twenty years ago, being able to forecast this week’s event with this kind of precision would have been unthinkable. Forecasts for seven days ahead are now as accurate as three day forecasts were 40 years ago – a remarkable scientific achievement.

In the lead up to Christmas, forecasts are showing the potential for more hot weather for the southeast towards Boxing Day, with some models predicting Melbourne could once again reach into the 40s.

Small, almost imperceptible imperfections may change this forecast as we get closer to Boxing Day. No matter what your favourite weather app is predicting, rest assured, your local weather forecaster is analysing all possibilities and providing you with the best forecast available.

Ailie Gallant receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Government Department of Climate Change, Energy, Water and the Environment.

Michael Barnes receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Australia’s latest brush with extreme heat shows just how good weather forecasting really is – https://theconversation.com/australias-latest-brush-with-extreme-heat-shows-just-how-good-weather-forecasting-really-is-246127

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katharine Kemp, Associate Professor, Faculty of Law & Justice; Lead, UNSW Public Interest Law & Tech Initiative, UNSW Sydney

The Australian Information Commissioner today announced a settlement with tech giant Meta over its involvement in the Cambridge Analytica scandal.

The settlement will see Meta establish a A$50 million payment program for Australian Facebook users who had their personal data harvested by the British political consulting firm.

The commissioner, Elizabeth Tydd, said:

Today’s settlement represents the largest ever payment dedicated to addressing concerns about the privacy of individuals in Australia.

However, details of the payment scheme remain uncertain. And it’s not yet clear whether it will send a strong enough message to other organisations to be more careful when handling sensitive personal information.

What was the Cambridge Analytica scandal?

Cambridge Analytica was a British political consulting firm founded in 2013.

Five years later, it became an infamous household name, thanks to revelations it harvested the personal information of tens of millions of Facebook users. The firm then used this data to target messaging for political campaigns, including the 2016 US presidential election, won by Donald Trump.

The firm harvested sensitive data of Facebook users through a third-party app called This is Your Digital Life, created in November 2013 by Aleksandr Kogan, a professor at Cambridge University. It was enabled to do this by Meta, which three years earlier had changed its software to allow third-party apps to access Facebook users’ personal data.

Only 53 people in Australia installed the app.

However, Australia’s information commissioner estimates that an additional 311,074 Facebook users who were Facebook “friends” of people who installed the app may also have had their personal information compromised.

How will the payment scheme work?

The payment scheme is the culmination of a protracted legal battle between Australia’s privacy regulator and Meta, which have been locked in court proceedings in Australia since 2020. As part of the agreement, the regulator has dropped proceedings against Meta in the Federal Court.

The payment scheme will be set up by Meta but administered by an independent third party. It will be open to people who:

• had a Facebook account between November 2 2013 and December 17 2015
• were present in Australia for at least 30 days during that period
• either installed the This is Your Digital Life app using Facebook login or were Facebook friends with an individual who installed the app.

People can check whether they are eligible on a help page on the Facebook website. The information commissioner anticipates those who are eligible will be able to submit applications “in the second quarter of 2025”.

According to the undertaking, it could take two years for eligible claimants to receive a payment from Meta.

Several uncertainties

Several aspects of the payment scheme remain uncertain. This is because a number of elements will be determined by “scheme instructions” to be given by Meta or left to the absolute discretion of the third-party administrator.

For instance, we don’t yet know:

• the set amount that will be paid to any eligible person who experienced “a generalised concern or embarrassment”, or
• what will be regarded as sufficient evidence that such a person also experienced “specific” loss or damage that entitles them to further compensation.

If the administrator decides on a total amount of compensation for eligible claimants which is less than A$50 million, the remaining funds will be paid to the Australian government’s consolidated revenue fund.

Long overdue

Australia’s privacy commissioner Carly Kind has called this settlement “groundbreaking”. But such enforcement action is long overdue.

When the information commissioner originally brought these proceedings in 2020, it was the first time the regulator had sought a civil penalty order under the Privacy Act. But it has had that power since 2014.

The commissioner was also following in the footsteps of privacy and consumer protection regulators in other countries that had already taken action against Meta over the Cambridge Analytica scandal.

For instance, the UK privacy regulator fined Facebook the maximum £500,000 (A$997,167). The US Federal Trade Commission also settled with Meta on a record-breaking US$5 billion (A$7.86 billion) payment.

These precedents help in understanding the limited deterrent effect the Office of the Australian Information Commissioner case is likely to have on Meta. When the US$5 billion settlement was announced in 2019, Facebook’s share price increased.

The settlement between Meta and the Australian information commissioner represents roughly 0.02% of the tech giant’s US$130 billion global revenue for 2023.

A Meta spokesperson said the company had settled on a “no admission basis” and that the allegations “relate to past practices no longer relevant to how Meta’s products or systems work today”.

However, this is far from the only privacy breach by Meta, with the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission last year reaching a A$20 million settlement with Meta companies over claims that its Onavo VPN service misled users about how their data would be used.

Katharine Kemp is a member of the Research Committee of the Consumer Policy Research Centre.

– ref. Tech giant Meta will pay Australians $50 million for enabling the Cambridge Analytica scandal – https://theconversation.com/tech-giant-meta-will-pay-australians-50-million-for-enabling-the-cambridge-analytica-scandal-246144