Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jessie Jacobsen, Senior Lecturer, School of Biological Sciences and Centre for Brain Research, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

A global rise in autism diagnoses is putting the spotlight on this relatively common neurodevelopmental difference. A recent study identified autism in 1.3% of four- to five-year-olds in Aotearoa New Zealand. This matches estimates overseas of 1% to 2% of eight-year-olds.

In our new research, we looked at how genetic testing could support how people in New Zealand are diagnosed.

Genetic screening of 201 autistic individuals, as well as 101 non-autistic family members, found almost 13% of autistic participants had a clearly identified genetic variant. An additional 16% had a DNA change that likely explained their autism.

Importantly, our analysis was successful in identifying autism-linked genetic variants for autistic New Zealanders regardless of neurological differences and other diagnoses such as ADHD. Many of these individuals were adults who grew up before autism was widely recognised.

Diagnosing autism

Autism affects cognitive, sensory and social processing. It can change the way people see the world and interact with others.

Autistic individuals may experience challenges with social communication and interaction. They may also have intense interests and a strong need for routines and predictability. These patterns of behaviour typically appear from childhood.

The challenge with diagnosing autism is that it often occurs along with other neurodevelopmental conditions or mental health challenges such as intellectual disability, ADHD, depression and anxiety.

An autism diagnosis typically involves meeting with an expert such as a developmental paediatrician or clinical psychologist. After diagnosis, some forms of genetic testing may be offered.

But there is interest in identifying the ever-growing genetic variations underlying autism to provide precise genetic answers for families.

For some, having a precise genetic answer marks the end of a long search for an accurate diagnosis. For others it has provided personalised clinical management for co-occurring conditions.

Having an accurate genetic answer can help people find community support. This personalised care can support an individual’s wide range of skills, interests and personalities.

A recent study from Canada found using genetic testing for the diagnosis of neurodevelopmental conditions can reduce time to diagnosis by more than half.

This has important implications for publicly-funded healthcare in Aotearoa New Zealand. But it also gives individuals and their families a chance to access support sooner and develop a tailored pathway of care for all aspects of their health needs.

Identifying the genetic variants

Our research participants ranged in age from two to 81, with a reported autism diagnosis. The majority were older children (six to 12 years). The participants had a wide range of neurological differences, reflecting the diversity of autistic individuals in New Zealand.

After collecting their DNA, we used a flexible genome-wide approach to screen the progressively expanding list of causative genes in autism.

Where we found variants in the DNA, we filtered them through key criteria: how often they appear in the population, the predicted consequence of the variant on protein function, and what role the gene has in neurodevelopment.

The variants were categorised as either “causal”, “likely causal” or a “candidate” (based on American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics guidelines and international databases such as the Simons Foundation Autism Research Initiative gene database).

Of our 201 research participants, 12.9% had a genetic variant identified as “causal”. A further 15.9% had variants defined as “likely causal”. An additional 13.9% had “candidate” variants, which require further evidence to establish their role in autism.

A “causal” or “likely causal” variant was more likely to be discovered in participants who also exhibited global developmental delay (when they are significantly delayed in two or more areas of development) or intellectual disability than those who did not.

Importantly, our genetic approach is successful for autistic individuals regardless of neurological differences.

Offering clarity

Our research demonstrates that comprehensive genome-wide genetic testing can provide precise genetic answers for individuals and their families, marking the end of a long search for an accurate diagnosis.

The genome-wide approach can enable expanded testing to newly discovered genes so participants can benefit without the need for repeated testing.

In addition to reducing costs in an already strained medical sector, genetic testing can offer clarity, and tailor customised support for autistic individuals and their families.

As one family explained:

A diagnosis is something we’ve never had and this has made it possible for us to understand so much more about why our daughter is like she is. It has been a big relief and helped us understand that issues we were aware of, such as hyper-mobility, are actually features of [the genetic variant] 2q37. It has enabled us to get further tests done for things specific to [this variant] such as potential heart defects and kidney conditions […] we are very grateful that this research has led to the diagnosis of [our daughter’s] condition.

Jessie Jacobsen has received funding from the Minds for Minds Charitable Trust, Cure Kids and A Better Start: E Tipu e Rea National Science Challenge, the IHC Foundation, Oakley Mental Health Research Foundation, The Neurological Foundation of New Zealand and a Rutherford Discovery Fellowship administered by the Royal Society Te Apārangi of New Zealand.

Suzanne Musgrave receives funding from the University of Auckland Doctoral Scholarship.

– ref. The genes tell a story: new research offers much-needed certainty for autistic New Zealanders – https://theconversation.com/the-genes-tell-a-story-new-research-offers-much-needed-certainty-for-autistic-new-zealanders-239287

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bruce Yabsley, Associate Professor of Physics, University of Sydney

One of the most surprising predictions of physics is entanglement, a phenomenon where objects can be some distance apart but still linked together. The best-known examples of entanglement involve tiny chunks of light (photons), and low energies.

At the Large Hadron Collider in Geneva, the world’s largest particle accelerator, an experiment called ATLAS has just found entanglement in pairs of top quarks: the heaviest particles known to science.

The results are described in a new paper from my colleagues and me in the ATLAS collaboration, published today in Nature.

What is entanglement?

In everyday life, we think of objects as being either “separate” or “connected”. Two balls a kilometre apart are separate. Two balls joined by a piece of string are connected.

When two objects are “entangled”, there is no physical connection between them – but they are not truly separate either. You can make a measurement of the first object, and that is enough to know what the second object is doing, even before you look at it.

The two objects form a single system, even though there is nothing connecting them together. This has been shown to work with photons on opposite sides of a city.

The idea will be familiar to fans of the recent streaming series 3 Body Problem, based on Liu Cixin’s sci-fi novels. In the show, aliens have sent a tiny supercomputer to Earth, to mess with our technology and to allow them to communicate with us. Because this tiny object is entangled with a twin on the alien homeworld, the aliens can communicate with it and control it – even though it is four light-years away.

That part of the story is science fiction: entanglement doesn’t really allow you to send signals faster than light. (It seems like entanglement should allow you to do this, but according to quantum physics this isn’t possible. So far, all of our experiments are consistent with that prediction.)

But entanglement itself is real. It was first demonstrated for photons in the 1980s, in what was then a cutting-edge experiment.

Today you can buy a box from a commercial provider that will spit out entangled pairs of photons. Entanglement is one of the properties described by quantum physics, and is one of the properties that scientists and engineers are trying to exploit to create new technologies, such as quantum computing.

Since the 1980s, entanglement has also been seen with atoms, with some subatomic particles, and even with tiny objects undergoing very, very slight vibrations. These examples are all at low energies.

The new development from Geneva is that entanglement has been seen in pairs of particles called top quarks, where there are vast amounts of energy in a very small space.

So what are quarks?

Matter is made of molecules; molecules are made of atoms; and an atom is made of light particles called electrons orbiting a heavy nucleus in the centre, like the Sun in the centre of the solar system. We already knew this from experiments by about 1911.

We then learned that the nucleus is made up of protons and neutrons, and by the 1970s we discovered that protons and neutrons are made up of even smaller particles called quarks.

There are six types of quark in total: the “up” and “down” quarks that make up protons and neutrons, and then four heavier ones. The fifth quark, the “beauty” or “bottom” quark, is about four-and-a-half times heavier than a proton, and when we found it we thought it was very heavy. But the sixth and final quark, the “top”, is a monster: slightly heavier than a tungsten atom, and 184 times the mass of a proton.

No one knows why the top quark is so massive. The top quark is an object of intense study at the Large Hadron Collider, for exactly this reason. (In Sydney, where I am based, most of our work on the ATLAS experiment is focused on the top quark.)

We think the very large mass may be a clue. Maybe the top quark is so massive because the top quark feels new forces, beyond the four we already know about. Or maybe it has some other connection to “new physics”.

We know that the laws of physics, as we currently understand them, are incomplete. Studying the way the top quark behaves may show us the way to something new.

So does entanglement mean that top quarks are special?

Probably not. Quantum physics says that entanglement is common, and that all sorts of things can be entangled.

But entanglement is also fragile. Many quantum physics experiments are done at ultra-cold temperatures, to avoid “bumping” the system and disturbing it. And so, up to now, entanglement has been demonstrated in systems where scientists can set up the right conditions to make the measurements.

For technical reasons, the top quark’s very large mass makes it a good laboratory for studying entanglement. (The new ATLAS measurement would not have been possible for the other five types of quark.)

But top quark pairs won’t be the basis of a convenient new technology: you can’t pick up the Large Hadron Collider and carry it around. Nevertheless, top quarks do provide a new kind of tool to conduct experiments with, and entanglement is interesting in itself, so we’ll keep looking to see what else we find.

Bruce Yabsley works for the School of Physics at the University of Sydney, and receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is a member of the ATLAS Collaboration at CERN, in Geneva, Switzerland; and the Belle II Collaboration at KEK in Tsukuba, Japan.

– ref. Even the heaviest particles experience the usual quantum weirdness, new experiment shows – https://theconversation.com/even-the-heaviest-particles-experience-the-usual-quantum-weirdness-new-experiment-shows-239138

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Evangeline Gardiner, PhD Candidate in Public Health, The University of Queensland

From doctors’ offices to family gatherings, larger-bodied people report being bombarded with unsolicited advice about their eating and exercise habits. The underlying message? They “just need to lose weight” to fix almost any health problem.

Society’s focus on weight has shaped how most Australians view health and body weight, often pushing them towards unhealthy thoughts and behaviours in the pursuit of an “ideal” body shape.

However, the way society thinks about ob*sity and body weight is changing, with science backing the shift.

*Historical reflections on the word “obesity” reveal its offensive origins, with advocates suggesting the term ob*sity should be used with an asterisk to acknowledge this. To show our respect, we will adopt this language here.

Policymakers and health researchers are increasingly recognising the harms of stigmatising language and attitudes towards larger-bodied people.

Let’s unpack how the thinking on ob*sity has shifted over time and what this means for public health and health care in Australia.

From personal responsibility to a complex, chronic disease

Until recent years, managing body weight was predominantly considered a personal responsibility. Ob*sity was considered a result of a poor diet and a lack of physical activity, underpinned by personal and moral failure.

This narrative was reflected in public health policies that used language such as “war on ob*sity” and “ob*sity epidemic”. Such language was shown to reinforce negative stereotypes of larger-bodied people as “lazy” and lacking willpower.

These stereotypes give way to weight stigma and discrimination, which is still prevalent today. Health professionals such as dietitians report that weight stigma (from other people and internally from within themselves) is a prevalent and ongoing challenge they manage in their career.

This narrative of personal responsibility has shifted in recent years to recognise the wider determinants of health. Research has identified a range of psychological, social, biological and systemic factors contributing to increasing rates of ob*sity, such as socioeconomic status, genetics, medications and environment.

As a result, public health experts consider it no longer appropriate to use language referring to ob*sity as a problem of “lifestyle”.

Professionals across medicine, psychology and dietetics also responded by updating their language standards to person-first language (for example, “person living with ob*sity”), acknowledging the shift away from framing ob*sity as a personal failure.

In 2014, the United States American Medical Association classified ob*sity as a chronic disease, against advice from its Committee on Science and Public Health. The decision sparked widespread discontent and discussion, with claims it causes unnecessary discrimination and pathologises normal changes to human bodies over time.

The debate continues here in Australia, yet no classification has been made.

Weight-centric and weight-inclusive narratives

Recent policy documents in Australia, such as the National Ob*sity Strategy 2022–2032, acknowledge a broader view of ob*sity. But policy and practice in Australia remains predominantly weight-centric. They encourage weight loss as a health goal and recommend intentionally avoiding weight gain.

Weight-centric approaches to health have been criticised for lacking long-term evidence (beyond five years) to support their effectiveness and for producing unintended consequences.

Rather than promoting health, weight-centric approaches can cause harm, such as increased weight stigma and weight cycling (repeatedly losing and regaining weight). Both weight stigma and weight cycling have been linked with negative long-term physical and mental health outcomes.

Weight-inclusive approaches to health are gaining popularity as an alternative approach that supports people in eating well and moving regularly, regardless of any desire to lose weight. This approach aims to improve access to health care and has been shown to enhance overall physical and mental health.

Approaches like Health at Every Size and intuitive eating are key examples of promoting health and wellbeing without focusing on weight.

Weight-inclusive approaches have faced criticism, however, with concerns that these approaches lack empirical evidence and may not be appropriate for people who want support for weight management.

Where does this leave us?

While our thinking about ob*sity continues to change, it is essential to listen to larger-bodied people and ensure their access to health care is equitable, safe and affirming.

Advocates such as Size Inclusive Health Australia recommend efforts to reduce weight stigma and discrimination so that health is inclusive of all body shapes and sizes.

Guidance and recommendations exist for addressing weight stigma and adopting weight-inclusive approaches to health, such as the Size Inclusive Health Promotion Guidelines and the Eating Disorder Safe Principles.

Policy, research and practice should continue to synthesise and understand the evidence surrounding weight-inclusive approaches, in line with the shifting narratives of weight and health. This will support the design, implementation and evaluation for weight-inclusive initiatives in Australia.

Evangeline Gardiner is a PhD candidate at the University of Queensland, exploring weight-inclusive approaches to public health. She is a member of Size Inclusive Health Australia (SIHA) and works at the National Eating Disorders Collaboration (NEDC). Evangeline identifies as a larger-bodied person, drawing on her lived and professional experience to advocate for a health system that supports the health and wellbeing of individuals of all sizes.

Amy Kirkegaard receives funding from Queensland Health. She is a member of Dietitians Australia.

Breanna Lepre is an Assistant Director (Executive) at the NNEdPro Global Institute for Food, Nutrition and Health and is a member of Dietitians Australia.

Lauren Ball receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Queensland Health and Mater Misericordia. She is a Director of Dietitians Australia, a Director of the Darling Downs and West Moreton Primary Health Network and an Associate Member of the Australian Academy of Health and Medical Sciences.

Mark Robinson works for the Institute for Social Science Research at the University of Queensland. He receives or has received funding from Health and Wellbeing Queensland, the Queensland government Department of Health, and the Australian government Department of Health and Aged Care. Mark contributed to the development of ‘Making Healthy Happen 2032: A strategy for preventing obesity in Queensland’ and is an Associate Editor of the Health Promotion Journal of Australia.

– ref. How we think about ‘obesity’ and body weight is changing. Here’s why – https://theconversation.com/how-we-think-about-obesity-and-body-weight-is-changing-heres-why-238206

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Claire Dale, Research Fellow, the Pensions and Intergenerational Equity (PIE) research hub, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

The recent submissions to parliament’s Health Select Committee makes one thing clear: a crisis looms for the aged care sector in New Zealand.

This crisis centres on the funding and staffing of residential aged care (ARC) and in-home care and support services.

But to address the problem, the government doesn’t have to look far. Australia has changed how the sector is funded, calling on wealthier members of society to pay a fairer share of the costs.

New Zealanders in aged care

Last year, an estimated 32,000 people were in residential aged care. A means-tested government-funded residential care subsidy pays for most of the cost of care for those who qualify – around 63% of ARC residents.

The eligibility threshold for the ARC subsidy is total assets of NZ$284,636 or less for a couple aged 65 or older. New Zealand superannuation, the universal age pension, pays the remainder and provides a modest weekly spending allowance.

Those whose assets exceed the threshold pay for their own care, increasingly in “care suites”. These beds, only available to those who can afford the cost, reduce what is available for subsidised residents, raising equity issues.

In 2022/23 Health NZ contributed $1.352 billion to ARC providers. Residents’ fees contributed a further $1.1 billion.

During the same period, around 80,000 people aged over 65 years, with a community services card or suffering from a long term condition, accessed home support services (at a cost of $2 billion). These services included personal care, cooking, cleaning and respite care and were not income or asset tested.

Reviewing aged care

In July 2023, Health NZ launched a review of funding and service models for aged care services.

The purpose of the review is to provide recommendations that will ensure equity of access and outcomes for older people across New Zealand, while balancing the need for a cost-effective system.

Phase One of the review was completed in late December 2023. The report identified five key issues and no surprises:

• aged residential care and home and community support services are under-funded
• the funding models used to distribute funding to the sector are not fit for purpose
• there are material ethnic inequities in accessing aged care services
• the aged care sector continues to face significant workforce pressures
• issues with aged care are exacerbated in regional and rural New Zealand.

Phase Two is to develop recommendations for service and funding models that will result in a more integrated care model, efficient use of resources, and fit-for-purpose regulatory and funding regimes.

Despite the government’s demand for $1.4 billion in savings from Health NZ, Seniors Minister Casey Costello says the government is not intending spending cuts in aged care.

A recent survey found that 56% of respondents’ ARC facilities made a net loss in the 2022/23 financial year.

Inadequate funding has caused some retirement village providers to scale down the number of ARC beds in their care facilities. Many smaller providers have closed beds, or closed their doors for good.

Further, due to the acute shortage of registered nurses in 2023, over 1,000 beds were closed permanently and 1,200 closed temporarily. Unsurprisingly, Health NZ estimates a shortage of 12,000 residential care beds within eight years.

Yet underfunding of the sector is clearly a false economy. The cost of hospital-level care in ARC facilities is less than a quarter of bed-day cost in a public hospital medical ward.

As Aged Care Commissioner Carolyn Cooper states in a recent report:

Critically, there is a lack of dedicated strategy and planning for the health needs of an ageing population.

A shared crisis

The crisis in aged care is not limited to New Zealand.

The Australian government has just completed a review of the sector and adopted the aged care taskforce’s 23 recommendations.

One major change is requiring wealthier people to contribute more to the overall costs instead of relying on taxpayers subsidies.

The urgency of this change is driven by the reality that over half of all aged care homes in Australia are not financially viable. Providers need sufficient revenue to cover the costs of the services they deliver. Every facility that closes reduces the availability of residential care for older people.

The Australian government will continue to pay 100% of clinical care services, while more means-testing arrangements for everyday living and non-clinical care costs will ensure those who have the assets are self-funding their care.

Taxpayer funding will ensure those without assets still have access to the care they need.

These changes will improve the financial viability of care providers, and will also improve intergenerational equity by reducing the taxpayers’ burden.

An impossible burden

New Zealand could learn from the Australian example. Stats NZ projects the proportion of people aged 65+ will reach 20% of the population by 2028. In four years, there could be 30 people aged 65+ years for every 100 people aged 15–64 years.

Older people are high users of health services, and the bulk of aged care and support is currently taxpayer-funded. Without a change in the funding model, an increasingly impossible burden will be placed on working-age citizens.

The sector review needs to ensure wealthier users of aged care services contribute appropriately. Intergenerational equity needs to be considered in any redesign of the provision of aged care.

Claire Dale does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. A looming crisis means New Zealand must rethink how it pays for aged care – https://theconversation.com/a-looming-crisis-means-new-zealand-must-rethink-how-it-pays-for-aged-care-239299

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Freya Higgins-Desbiolles, Adjunct professor and adjunct senior lecturer in tourism management, University of South Australia

Right now, Australia is one of the top five tourist destinations in the world, a distinction the World Economic Forum says it shares with only the United States, France, Spain and Japan.

So important is tourism to Australia’s economy that the best estimates are it employs 655,000 people, 12 times as many as Australia’s coal industry.

And most of them are employed in regional locations, where jobs are scarce.

This month a report by the Zurich insurance group and the economic consultancy Mandala found half of Australia’s top 178 tourism assets were at risk from foreseeable climate change.

There are reasons to believe its findings underplay what we are facing.

All major airports, all national parks at risk

The Zurich-Mandala report examines the impact of a 2⁰C increase in global temperatures on only eight so-called “climate perils”: wind, flood, heat, storm, drought, bushfire, hail and rain.

It found that more than half of Australia’s top tourism assets faced a “significant risk from multiple perils” over the next 25 years, including all of Australia’s major airports.

Scheduling disruptions and the closure of airports in extreme weather conditions were set to have major impacts on the transport of goods, the transport of tourists and accessibility for emergency services.

All of Australia’s vineyards, national parks, scenic roads and railways
were at risk.

Queensland had the highest number of sites facing significant risk (79%) followed by Western Australia (69%) and the Northern Territory (63%).

The report uses the impact of the 2019-20 black summer bushfires to estimate that 176,000 jobs might be at risk nationwide from predictable climate change, most of them outside of Australia’s capital cities.

Multiple and interacting threats

Here is why I am fearful that the report underplays the threat Australia’s tourism industry is facing.

There are many more threats to tourism from climate change than wind, flood, heat, storm, drought, bushfire, hail and rain.

One is the threat to biodiversity. Iconic animals and habitats are an important part of Australia’s brand.

Three billion animals were killed or displaced in the black summer bushfires.

The deaths caused loss and grief that risk indexes are incapable of capturing, but that nonetheless might make tourism less attractive.

And biodiversity helps in another way by protecting against bushfires, meaning that as species vanish, other risks to tourism climb in ways that aren’t captured in the assumptions used to evaluate risk.

Threats unexamined

What makes holiday locations unattractive is hard to measure, but is fed by extreme weather events.

Although temporary, the smoke and heat from the 2019-20 bushfires made parts of Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra almost unlivable for a while, damaging the reputations of Australian capital cities in a way that is probably ongoing.

Another curious omission, especially curious given that the report was prepared by an insurance company, is the damage extreme weather events do to the insurability of tourism assets.

The report is also silent on the effort to reduce carbon emissions on Australia’s desirability as an international destination.

For many tourists, air travel is the only way to get to Australia and it is likely to become more expensive and also less attractive as tourists try to reduce their carbon footprints.

Australia might increasingly become an Australian rather than an international destination.

Our biggest upcoming international promotion, the 2032 Brisbane Olympic Games, might lose a good deal of its shine, with Queensland tourism assets at the greatest risk from climate change, and those risks set to climb over time.

The higher the temperature the bigger the threats

Zurich and the Mandala consultancy are to be commended for identifying 178 top tourism assets and examining eight types of risk they face.

Their finding that just over half of them face serious threats from those risks is likely to be an underestimate because it excludes other risks and fails to examine the way in which some risks can intensify others.

And they will be an underestimate if global temperatures climb by more than 2⁰C.

The report says if global temperatures climb to 3⁰C above pre-industrial levels, 80% of the Australian sites it examined will face serious threats.

Australia could attempt to limit the increase in global temperatures by taking up the opportunity to co-host the 2026 UN climate talks with Pacific nations.

It would give us a shot at making a difference and drawing attention to our present status as one of the world’s top tourism destinations.

Read more:
It’s a big deal if Australia and the Pacific are chosen to host UN climate talks. Here’s why

Freya Higgins-Desbiolles does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Climate change threatens Australian tourism more than is widely believed. Here’s why – https://theconversation.com/climate-change-threatens-australian-tourism-more-than-is-widely-believed-heres-why-238768

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher Blake, PhD Student, Monash University

Dying coral reefs, rainforests transforming into savannas, grasslands turning into deserts – these are ecosystem “tipping points”, boundary lines we’re desperate not to cross.

In dynamic systems filled with life, these critical thresholds aren’t set in stone. Since organisms can evolve, the tipping points within these ecosystems might evolve too.

Most of us think of evolution as a glacial process, too slow to witness in a single lifetime. But evolution, especially in the microbial world, can happen very quickly. Consider antibiotic-resistant bacteria that emerge within years, or the COVID-causing virus evolving new variants in mere months. When the conditions are just right, evolution can go into overdrive — although that’s usually not good for us.

Our latest research, published today in Nature Ecology and Evolution, reveals the first experimental evidence that tipping point behaviour can indeed evolve, and evolve quickly. This raises an exciting prospect: could understanding the evolution of tipping points help us steer ecosystems away from collapse?

Equilibria, diversity and exclusion

Tipping points are critical thresholds where a small change in environmental conditions can lead to a dramatic and often irreversible shift in an ecosystem’s state. But what exactly does this mean?

An ecological community is a network of interacting species – plants, animals and microorganisms – that live in the same area and are interconnected through various relationships like predation, competition and symbiosis.

A healthy ecological community has a balanced mix of species that perform essential roles. They contribute to services like pollination, nutrient cycling, water purification and climate regulation.

When an ecosystem is pushed toward a tipping point due to stressors like climate change, habitat destruction or pollution, this balance is disrupted.

Crossing these thresholds often leads to less diverse communities that fail to perform essential functions. This results in species extinctions and a loss of vital ecosystem services.

Take coral reefs, for example. Corals have a symbiotic relationship with microscopic algae called zooxanthellae. Rising ocean temperatures push the ecosystem toward a tipping point: a critical thermal threshold beyond which corals expel the algae in a process known as coral bleaching.

If the stressful conditions persist, the ecosystem shifts from a vibrant, biodiverse reef to a barren underwater landscape. This can lead to the collapse of the entire reef ecosystem and the loss of marine life that relies on it.

So, we know tipping points are crucial for us to understand. But observing and mapping tipping point behaviour in these complex systems is extraordinarily difficult.

To explore how evolution might influence tipping points, we turned to the microscopic world.

Evolution in real time

Bacteria reproduce at astonishing speeds, allowing us to witness evolution as it happens. Over just 400 days, we guided a model microbial community of E. coli through 4,000 generations. This would be equivalent to about 100,000 years for humans.

One of the unique perks of working with microbes is our ability to freeze them, like biological snapshots in time. This means we can store the original “ancestral” community, and later revive it to compare with its evolved descendants.

By exposing both the ancestral and evolved communities to a range of environmental stresses, we could observe when they remained stable and when they collapsed.

We discovered that evolution can cut both ways.

As species co-evolved to become better adapted to benign conditions, they became more sensitive to stress. This had no impact until we exposed the community to adverse environmental conditions. This triggered unexpected destabilisation, bringing the tipping point closer, and causing collapse sooner than anticipated.

On the flip side, when we specifically evolved the community to withstand environmental stress, the species adapted in ways that allowed them to coexist under much harsher conditions. This effectively delayed the tipping point.

A new model

To illustrate these ecological changes, we developed a mathematical model that can allow for tipping points.

By tweaking key factors like competition levels, stress resistance and species growth rates, we could simulate how different evolutionary changes affect an entire ecosystem’s trajectory.

If we want to forecast the stability of ecosystems, having a way to include evolution is a significant step.

On the one hand, our results indicate that “directed evolution” – with humans helping species adapt to environmental changes – could bolster ecosystem resilience and prevent collapse.

On the other hand, our research warns us evolution isn’t always a saviour. For example, evolutionary changes that increase the dependence, or impact, of one species on another species may speed up destabilisation, making tipping points arrive sooner than we’d like.

As we grapple with unprecedented environmental challenges, understanding evolution’s role in ecosystem stability becomes more critical than ever. Just as evolution can help harmful bacteria outsmart our antibiotics, it can also shift the tipping points of entire ecosystems, for better or worse.

Michael J. McDonald receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Christopher Blake does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How do ecosystems collapse? Our study shows evolution plays a role – and can delay a disaster – https://theconversation.com/how-do-ecosystems-collapse-our-study-shows-evolution-plays-a-role-and-can-delay-a-disaster-239000

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The government has found many of its key measures stuck in a legislative quagmire, with both Greens and Coalition playing hardball with Labor’s plans.

This week the government’s housing legislation has stalled in the Senate. The Greens are pitching for radically expanded initiatives such as scrapping negative gearing and support for controlling rent rises.

Greens leader Adam Bandt joins us to talk about the immediate impasse as well as his party’s broad agenda including its demands if Labor fell into minority at the election.

On why the Greens are holding up the government’s housing bills, Bandt says:

Labor has refused to put any offers on the table. At the moment, Labor’s just tinkering around the edges of a fundamentally broken system, offering bandaid answers that won’t fix the housing and rental crisis. We know what is driving the housing and rental crisis. It’s unlimited rent increases that are pushing people to the brink.

Let’s use this parliament to seriously tackle the housing and rental crisis. When the previous housing legislation came for the Housing Australia Future Fund we pushed the government and got $3 billion of extra money to go to new public and community housing – and we’re pushing the government again to say stop tinkering around the edges.

Asked the Greens’ solution to the labour shortage that’s inhibiting how many houses can be built, Bandt advocates much increased government investment:

Let’s train people through big government investment in the construction of public housing like governments used to do.

This is something that we need to get on with. And I guess if the government’s saying that there’s going to be a labour shortage, then that’s the government admitting that they’re never going to be able to build homes in the future. We need a different approach. And if the government needs to invest in that need, including in training, then the government should.

On the government’s proposed ban on children joining social media sites, Bandt argues such a course would be counterproductive:

We understand the concern, and I’ve got two primary school-aged kids, and this is something that I think many parents are having to navigate. […] A ban based on age might close the door – if it works – to some people getting onto social media. But it doesn’t change what happens when you open the door and get onto social media itself. We would much rather set an approach that says let’s change the rules by which these tech giants operate. Let’s regulate what happens on social media much better so it’s a safer place.

The experts are lining up to say [it’s] much better to change what happens online rather than ban people from it until they reach a certain age, because then they’re going to have to navigate it when they get there. And if the surf is rough […] you teach children how to swim and so that they can look after themselves and you do it in a staged and managed way.

On Gaza, Bandt argues the government should be taking more action against Israel and defends the Greens’ presence at the recent demonstration outside a defence expo in Melbourne,

Australia could be putting pressure on the extremist Netanyahu government to comply with international law, at a bare minimum. Australia is party to these conventions like the Convention Against Genocide and the way that this international law works is that when one party sees another one committing a war crime, they’re obliged to take action.

Australia could put sanctions on the members of the war cabinet and Australia could join in recognising Palestine. Australia could join some of these cases around the world like other countries are doing.

I support [Senator David Shoebridge] addressing those peaceful protests that were taking place. Victoria Police said that the protests were predominantly peaceful. [… ]A number of civil liberties groups have said that the police reaction and that the policing that was seen there not only demands an independent inquiry, but was more forceful than they have seen before. Of course, we do not support that violence happening anywhere, whether it’s at a protest or whether it’s somewhere else.

If Labor falls into minority at the election, what would the Greens want in order to give a guarantee on supply and confidence?

We want the big corporations to pay their fair share of tax and use that money to ensure that everyone in this country has what they need to live a good life, by doing things like getting dental into Medicare, funding a rent freeze and rent caps across the country, wiping student debt and making childcare free.

One in three big corporations in this country pays no tax at all, and when a nurse pays more tax than a multinational, something is seriously wrong. We will be pushing the next government to make the big corporations pay their fair share of tax.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Adam Bandt on why the Greens are playing hardball on housing – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-adam-bandt-on-why-the-greens-are-playing-hardball-on-housing-239304

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Goodman, Postdoctoral Fellow in Indigenous Health, CSIRO

Digital technologies are transforming health care for all Australians, and this includes Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. Electronic health interventions (eHealth) can involve features such as telehealth, instant messaging and mobile apps that support health care.

But testing what kinds of eHealth work for Indigenous people – and what don’t – relies on good quality research. And so far there hasn’t been strong, overarching guidance on what culturally safe eHealth looks like for Indigenous people.

We reviewed 39 studies about eHealth interventions for Indigenous people. We wanted to identify what made eHealth interventions effective, beneficial and culturally safe for the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities involved.

Here’s what we found.

Who does eHealth research benefit?

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples are the most researched human beings in the world, according to the National Health and Medical Research Council.

But much of this research has not directly benefited them. This has created a sense of scepticism about research among some Indigenous people.

Researchers who want to explore the role of digital innovations in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health care need to consider whether it is beneficial for those Indigenous communities – not just the science community.

Studies have shown positive outcomes for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples using eHealth for a range of issues. They include mental health challenges, support for new fathers and upskilling health care staff.

But research has so far focused on evaluating individual studies or specific modes of delivery, such mobile health. The eHealth studies our new research examined involved a range of interventions including telehealth and mobile diagnostic tools.

We aimed to identify what characteristics underpin effective eHealth interventions. We also assessed the “cultural quality” of eHealth research involving Indigenous people. That means how well a study has integrated Indigenous ways of knowing, doing and being.

To do this we used an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander framework, established in 2018. It asks 14 questions, including whether the research conducted was a priority of the community, and whether local community-controlled organisations or local Elders were consulted and engaged.

Here are the principles we found that underpin good digital health research for Indigenous people.

Building trust is crucial

Trust helps researchers establish credibility while allowing participants to have confidence in the research.

Trust may depend on a number of factors, including the community’s past experiences of research, whether researchers follow cultural protocols, and their institutions’ track record working with Indigenous people.

Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisations – or ACCHOs – play a crucial role creating strong and trust-based partnerships.

Building trust might look like:

• using devices people are already familiar with
• engaging people in eHealth services at an ACCHO or another culturally safe setting
• using eHealth to complement existing health care and workers
• respecting the diversity of individuals and their communities
• acknowledging technology is not always relevant and has its limitations.

Relevance to people and place

What languages do participants speak? What are the local protocols?

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people are not one homogenous group. Place plays a vital role in Indigenous knowledge systems.

We found eHealth research is successful when it responds to the specific needs, customs and cultures of the local community, rather than coming in with a cookie-cutter approach.

Digital health services also need to consider how they engage Indigenous people according to diverse factors such as gender, age and literacy. Information about health should be evidence-based but presented in a way that best engages and informs the target audience, without judgement.

Highlight cultural values

Indigenous people also need to see themselves and their values reflected in the services meant for them.

Visual and audio elements can be particularly effective, when they’re designed by – and represent – Indigenous people. This might mean using authentic Indigenous art and flag colours, as well as characters that reflect the appearance and voices of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.

We also found interactive features like chat, messaging and game-like elements are more likely to engage First Nations people in a culturally safe way.

Authentic Indigenous leadership in research

Indigenous people should not only be involved in eHealth research, they should be leading it.

We found when studies had two or more Indigenous authors, they rated much more highly for cultural quality. This means they reflected Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander ways of knowing, doing and being.

The result is ethical and mutually beneficial research: positive outcomes for both the researchers and the community involved.

Our study shows genuine co-design with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities must be foundational in eHealth research, not an after-thought. Australia’s First Scientists must be engaged at the first hour, not the eleventh hour.

Georgina Chelberg received funding from CSIRO as a PhD Candidate and paid consultancy work in her current role.

Andrew Goodman and Ray Mahoney do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Digital health research can be positive for Indigenous people. But our study found it needs to follow these principles – https://theconversation.com/digital-health-research-can-be-positive-for-indigenous-people-but-our-study-found-it-needs-to-follow-these-principles-238871

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bruce Watt, Associate Professor in Psychology, Bond University

Articles about badly behaved people and how to spot them are common. You don’t have to Google or scroll too much to find headlines such as 7 signs your boss is a psychopath or How to avoid the sociopath next door.

You’ll often see the terms psychopath and sociopath used somewhat interchangeably. That applies to perhaps the most famous badly behaved fictional character of all – Hannibal Lecter, the cannibal serial killer from The Silence of the Lambs.

In the book on which the movie is based, Lecter is described as a “pure sociopath”. But in the movie, he’s described as a “pure psychopath”. Psychiatrists have diagnosed him with something else entirely.

So what’s the difference between a psychopath and a sociopath? As we’ll see, these terms have been used at different times in history,
and relate to some overlapping concepts.

What’s a psychopath?

Psychopathy has been mentioned in the psychiatric literature since the 1800s. But the latest edition of the Diagnostic Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (known colloquially as the DSM) doesn’t list it as a recognised clinical disorder.

Since the 1950s, labels have changed and terms such as “sociopathic personality disturbance” have been replaced with antisocial personality disorder, which is what we have today.

Someone with antisocial personality disorder has a persistent disregard for the rights of others. This includes breaking the law, repeated lying, impulsive behaviour, getting into fights, disregarding safety, irresponsible behaviours, and indifference to the consequences of their actions.

To add to the confusion, the section in the DSM on antisocial personality disorder mentions psychopathy (and sociopathy) traits. In other words, according to the DSM the traits are part of antisocial personality disorder but are not mental disorders themselves.

US psychiatrist Hervey Cleckley provided the first formal description of psychopathy traits in his 1941 book The Mask of Sanity. He based his description on his clinical observations of nine male patients in a psychiatric hospital. He identified several key characteristics, including superficial charm, unreliability and a lack of remorse or shame.

Canadian psychologist Professor Robert Hare refined these characteristics by emphasising interpersonal, emotional and lifestyle characteristics, in addition to the antisocial behaviours listed in the DSM.

When we draw together all these strands of evidence, we can say a psychopath manipulates others, shows superficial charm, is grandiose and is persistently deceptive. Emotional traits include a lack of emotion and empathy, indifference to the suffering of others, and not accepting responsibility for how their behaviour impacts others.

Finally, a psychopath is easily bored, sponges off others, lacks goals, and is persistently irresponsible in their actions.

So how about a sociopath?

The term sociopath first appeared in the 1930s, and was attributed to US psychologist George Partridge. He emphasised the societal consequences of behaviour that habitually violates the rights of others.

Academics and clinicians often used the terms sociopath and psychopath interchangeably. But some preferred the term sociopath because they said the public sometimes confused the word psychopath with psychosis.

“Sociopathic personality disturbance” was the term used in the first edition of the DSM in 1952. This aligned with the prevailing views at the time that antisocial behaviours were largely the product of the social environment, and that behaviours were only judged as deviant if they broke social, legal, and/or cultural rules.

Some of these early descriptions of sociopathy are more aligned with what we now call antisocial personality disorder. Others relate to emotional characteristics similar to Cleckley’s 1941 definition of a psychopath.

In short, different people had different ideas about sociopathy and, even today, sociopathy is less-well defined than psychopathy. So there is no single definition of sociopathy we can give you, even today. But in general, its antisocial behaviours can be similar to ones we see with psychopathy.

Over the decades, the term sociopathy fell out of favour. From the late 60s, psychiatrists used the term antisocial personality disorder instead.

Born or made?

Both “sociopathy” (what we now call antisocial personality disorder) and psychopathy have been associated with a wide range of developmental, biological and psychological causes.

For example, people with psychopathic traits have certain brain differences especially in regions associated with emotions, inhibition of behaviour and problem solving. They also appear to have differences associated with their nervous system, including a reduced heart rate.

However, sociopathy and its antisocial behaviours are a product of someone’s social environment, and tends to run in families. These behaviours has been associated with physical abuse and parental conflict.

What are the consequences?

Despite their fictional portrayals – such as Hannibal Lecter in Silence of the Lambs or Villanelle in the TV series Killing Eve – not all people with psychopathy or sociopathy traits are serial killers or are physically violent.

But psychopathy predicts a wide range of harmful behaviours. In the criminal justice system, psychopathy is strongly linked with re-offending, particularly of a violent nature.

In the general population, psychopathy is associated with drug dependence, homelessness, and other personality disorders. Some research even showed psychopathy predicted failure to follow COVID restrictions.

But sociopathy is less established as a key risk factor in identifying people at heightened risk of harm to others. And sociopathy is not a reliable indicator of future antisocial behaviour.

In a nutshell

Neither psychopathy nor sociopathy are classed as mental disorders in formal psychiatric diagnostic manuals. They are both personality traits that relate to antisocial behaviours and are associated with certain interpersonal, emotional and lifestyle characteristics.

Psychopathy is thought to have genetic, biological and psychological bases that places someone at greater risk of violating other people’s rights. But sociopathy is less clearly defined and its antisocial behaviours are the product of someone’s social environment.

Of the two, psychopathy has the greatest use in identifying someone who is most likely to cause damage to others.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What’s the difference between a psychopath and a sociopath? Less than you might think – https://theconversation.com/whats-the-difference-between-a-psychopath-and-a-sociopath-less-than-you-might-think-226714

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Justine Bell-James, Associate Professor in Environment and Property Law, TC Beirne School of Law, The University of Queensland

When Labor came to power federally after almost a decade in opposition, Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek pledged to turn around Australia’s worsening environmental woes, from extinctions to land clearing to climate change.

While the government has made progress on climate action, protecting biodiversity hasn’t got out of the starting blocks.

In the latest example of inaction, proposed laws to create an independent environmental regulator, Environmental Protection Australia, appear stalled in the Senate. Labor needs the backing of the Coalition or the Greens to push the reform through. At the time of writing, no deals looked likely.

This is a real problem. A stream of audits and reviews have shown Australia’s environmental laws are not fit for purpose. Change is possible – but hard. Keeping the status quo is far easier, no matter how dysfunctional it is.

Pushback in and out of parliament

The latest impasse stems from efforts to overhaul Australia’s ageing and feeble national environment laws, the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) Act.

The failings of the law are no secret. In 2020, an independent review by Graeme Samuel delivered blunt findings: the laws were simply not protecting nature.

Labor drafted stronger laws, but developers and miners quickly pushed back.

So Labor changed tack. It pivoted to a staged reform process – with the full-scale revamp delayed indefinitely.

This week, Labor attempted to pass at least some change – a bill to create an independent environmental regulator, Environmental Protection Australia. But it ran into major roadblocks.

Mining companies such as Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting and Rio Tinto pushed for the regulator to be stripped of its powers in a private letter to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

And Coalition and Greens senators delivered stinging critiques, arguing variously that the regulator would be too strong or too weak.

Crossbenchers and the Greens say to win their support, Labor must end native forest logging nationally and require consideration of climate damage when assessing projects such as new coal mines for approvals.

How did we get into this mess?

In 2000, the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act came into force, superseding a patchwork of previous laws.

The laws focused on threatened species and ecosystems but did not mention damage done by climate change.

Almost a quarter of a century later, we still have the same set of laws, described as ineffective or little enforced in audits and reviews.

Every year since the act came into force, Austalia’s threatened species populations have actually fallen 2-3%.

When development, agriculture and infrastructure projects do get assessed under these laws, about 99% are approved.

Experts have found the laws permit ongoing destruction of critical habitat for threatened species.

Why? While the environment minister of the day is required to consider environmental impacts of a proposal, they can essentially rule any way they like – even if it goes against the opinion of independent environmental experts, or their own bureaucrats.

Why is change so hard?

The 2020 Samuel review recommended new “national environmental standards” be enforced. These would mean explicitly defining what outcomes for nature we are aiming for, and making sure a development proposal met that standard.

For example, one proposed standard would disallow “unacceptable or unsustainable impacts” on matters of national environmental significance. These matters include internationally important wetlands and nationally threatened species. Other standards include preservation of Australia’s natural world heritage sites, such as the Great Barrier Reef.

In late 2022, Plibersek released Labor’s official response in the form of the Nature Positive Plan.

The plan seemed promising. It recognised the dire state of Australia’s species and ecosystems and labelled the current laws “ineffective”. It promised national environmental standards.

Plibersek vowed to consult on further changes. This led to a proposal to replace the EPBC Act with stronger laws, and create a new regulator – Environment Protection Australia.

As initiailly proposed, this independent agency would have power to make development decisions and ensure compliance. It would only grant approval to a project if it was consistent with national environmental standards. The minister could still step in, but had to give public reasons for doing so, and take advice from the regulator.

However, major lobby groups opposed the proposed overhaul of the laws.

In response, Plibersek changed tactics. She announced environmental reform would be in three stages.

The first was the Nature Repair Market, which passed Parliament late last year. The second stage involved the laws now before the Senate: creating Environment Protection Australia in a weaker form (without the restrictions on discretion in the initial proposal) and a data and monitoring agency, Environment Information Australia.

If passed, these bills would create a protection agency – but one which could only enforce the same weak approval laws and be subject to the same broad discretion for the decision-maker. For the agency to have teeth, the government would need to pass stage three, which would reduce discretion, introduce stronger environment laws and create legally binding National Environmental Standards.

Unfortunately, Labor has now deferred these indefinitely.

Stalled at stage two

The government is clearly struggling to pass its stage two reforms.

Conservationists are increasingly worried by the delays, while Western Australia’s mining companies have come out strongly against the EPA.

This is a problem for Labor. Western Australia was instrumental in the party’s election win in 2022 and it needs to shore up seats in the mining-heavy state ahead of the next federal election.

Meanwhile, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has pledged to be the mining sector’s best friend if elected, by cutting “green tape”, fast tracking resource projects and defunding the Environmental Defenders Office.

And the Greens are showing little sign of compromise on their demands.

All this is bad news for our threatened species and sick ecosystems. We know what needs to be done. But our government is showing worrying signs of letting industry and developers control their environmental agenda.

Justine Bell-James receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Environmental Science Program. She is a Director of the National Environmental Law Association, and attended the EPBC Act stakeholder consultation sessions in her capacity as Director. Her opinions in this article are her own.

– ref. Australia desperately needs a strong federal environmental protection agency. Our chances aren’t looking good – https://theconversation.com/australia-desperately-needs-a-strong-federal-environmental-protection-agency-our-chances-arent-looking-good-239099

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Melissa Tham, Research fellow at the Mitchell Institute, Victoria University

The federal government has released a highly anticipated report into Australia’s childcare system. The report, by the Productivity Commission, says addressing affordability should be a priority. It recommends fully subsidised childcare for families earning under A$80,000 from 2026.

The report, which was commissioned by the government, was completed at the end of June.

It sets out crucial steps to achieve a “universal” childcare system in Australia. This is where all families with children under five can get three days a week of high-quality early education and care. The Productivity Commission says this should be up and running by 2036.

Read more:
Productivity Commission charts the costly path to universal early childhood education

What’s in the report?

The final report has 56 recommendations to “remove barriers” to access early childhood education and care. This includes centre-based care (such as long daycare), preschools, family day care and outside school hours care (often called before and after school care).

Key recommendations include:

• raising the maximum rate of the childcare subsidy from 90% to 100% of the hourly rate cap for families on incomes up to $80,000. The Productivity Commission recommends this is implemented in 2026 to make childcare more affordable for about 30% of all families with children aged 0–12 years.

• for families with multiple children under five earning under $140,000, it recommends raising subsidies to 100%, up from the current 95%.

• the proposed changes to the subsidy would not only mean more affordable childcare for low-income families. All families earning under $580,000 per year would receive a higher subsidy rate, “making nearly all [early childhood education and care] users better off”. This follows a boost to childcare subsidies in 2023.

The activity test should go

Significantly, the report recommends removing the much-criticised activity test from next year. This requires parents to be working or studying at least eight hours a fortnight to receive child care subsidies.

The Productivity Commission says removing it would see more children from low income families in early education and care.

What else is in the report?

Recognising care needs do not stop when children start school, the Productivity Commission wants to see state governments make sure there is outside school hours care for children aged five to 12 in all public schools.

It also recognises remote and very remote areas face extra challenges. Some sparsely populated areas are “thin markets” – they do not have enough demand to support the provision of services. The Productivity Commission recommends targeted funding to help.

The report also highlights how supporting early childhood educators is key to quality care and good outcomes for all children. It calls for accelerated qualifications and consistent registration requirements. This follows a recent 15% pay rise for chronically low paid early childhood educators.

Equity is key to proposed reforms

The report focuses on how to achieve greater equity in early childhood education and care – a key part of the federal government’s Early Years Strategy.

Australia currently has as market-driven model for childcare provision. Our research shows this approach tends to see providers located in more affluent areas, where they can charge families more per hour.

Importantly, the Productivity Commission recognises the need for increased funding for remote and very remote areas. Our research shows although the supply of childcare places in Australia has increased over the past two years, the distribution of these places is not equitable. Families in remote areas are more likely to miss out.

Another proposed change is to enable access to child care subsidy for “wrap-around care” in dedicated preschools by 2025. This could see services provide more flexibility, such as more hours and different types of care (such as preschool or kinder learning for some of the day and then daycare around that). If implemented, it should mean greater support for working families.

Will it be enough?

As some commentators – such as independent federal MP Zoe Daniel – have been quick to point out, some changes are still a long way off. Daniel says the “timeline isn’t nearly ambitious enough”.

However, it will not necessarily be quick to provide universal access to childcare. While families need more places and cheaper costs right now, the report explains it will require “long-term commitment and investment”. It also says:

Sequencing reforms will be critical to avoid crowding out children and families experiencing disadvantage.

The Productivity Commission says overall, these measures would increase childcare subsidy costs by 37%, to $17.4 billion a year. While this is a significant amount, it is in line with other governments around the world, such as England and France, who are also increasing the amount they spend on the early years.

What next?

The government says it will consider this report alongside a separate report by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), finalised last year. This report looked at pricing across the sector.

As federal Education Minister Jason Clare told an early childhood conference on Wednesday,

We are closely looking at this report, along with the ACCC’s recent report and I want your feedback.

With another federal election on the horizon, we can reasonably expect the government’s response to form part of its re-election plans.

Melissa Tham works for the Mitchell Institute at Victoria University that receives funding from Minderoo’s Thrive by Five initiative to undertake research into early childhood education and care.

– ref. The Productivity Commission wants all Australian kids to get 3 days a week of childcare – but it won’t be until 2036 – https://theconversation.com/the-productivity-commission-wants-all-australian-kids-to-get-3-days-a-week-of-childcare-but-it-wont-be-until-2036-239293

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amin Saikal, Emeritus professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies, Australian National University

The alleged Israeli attack on members of Hezbollah via their pagers is another ominous development propelling the Middle East towards a full-scale regional war. It leaves Hezbollah with little option but to retaliate with the full support of the Iran-led “axis of resistance”.

The sophistication and impact of targeting the pagers is unprecedented. The attack resulted in at least 11 deaths, including some of Hezbollah’s fighters, and up to 3,000 people wounded.

The main aim of the attack, which US officials have reportedly said was carried out by Israel, was intended to disrupt Hezbollah’s means of communication and its command and control system in Lebanon.

Since Hezbollah has reduced the use of mobile phones by its forces because Israel can easily detect and target them, pagers have increasingly become the preferred messaging device within the group.

The attack may have also been designed to cause panic within the group and among the Lebanese public, many of whom do not support Hezbollah, given the political divisions in the country.

Since Hamas’ October 7 attacks on southern Israel, the Israeli leadership under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly said it is determined to remove the threat of Hezbollah, which has operated in solidarity with Hamas.

Hours before the pager attack, Netanyahu’s government clarified that Israel’s war goals would expand to include a return of the tens of thousands of residents to their homes in northern Israel, which they have fled due to constant rocket fire from Hezbollah. Israel’s defence minister, Yoav Gallant, said the only way to do this was through military action.

The simultaneous pager explosions on Tuesday, then, may be a prelude to an all-out Israeli offensive against Hezbollah.

The consequences of war with Hezbollah

Hezbollah has already declared it will retaliate. What form this will take remains to be seen. The group has a massive military capability to not only to pound northern Israel with drones and missiles, but also attack other parts of the Jewish state, including heavily populated cities such as Tel Aviv.

Hezbollah showed this capability in its 2006 war with Israel. The war lasted 34 days, during which 165 Israelis were killed (121 IDF soldiers and 44 civilians) and Israel’s economy and tourist industry were markedly damaged. Hezbollah and Lebanese losses were far greater, with at least 1,100 deaths. However, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) failed to destroy or incapacitate the group.

Any successful retaliatory attack on Israel’s cities could result in serious civilian casualties, giving Israel a further pretext to pursue its long-held aim of destroying Hezbollah and punishing its main backer, the Islamic Republic of Iran.

In a wider conflict, the United States is committed to defending Israel, while Iran would support Hezbollah in whatever way necessary. If Israeli and US leaders think Iran will continue to refrain from any action that could propel it into war with Israel and the US, they are mistaken.

Hezbollah is a central piece in the regime’s national and regional security paradigm. Tehran has invested heavily in the group, along with other regional affiliates – Iraqi militias, the Yemeni Houthis and the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, in particular. The aim of this “axis of resistance” has been to build a strong deterrent against Israel and the US.

Read more:
Does Israel really want to open a two-front war by attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon?

Ever since its foundation 45 years ago, the Iranian regime has viewed Israel and its main backer, the US, as an existential threat, just as Israel has regarded Iran in the same way. For this, the regime has reoriented its foreign relations towards America’s major adversaries, especially Russia and China. Russo-Iranian military cooperation has grown so strong, in fact, that Moscow will have little hesitation in backing Iran and its affiliates in any war.

Tehran is fully cognisant of Israel’s nuclear prowess. To guard against it, Iran has developed its own nuclear program to the threshold level of developing a weapon. Iranian leaders may have also gained Russia’s assurances it would help defend Iran should Israel resort to the use of its nuclear weapons.

Meanwhile, it is important to remember that after nearly a year of demolishing Gaza and devastating its inhabitants, Israel has not been able to wipe out Hamas.

Its own actions speak to this. It has constantly forced Gazans to relocate so IDF soldiers can operate in areas they had previously declared to be cleared of fighters.

The task of defeating Hezbollah and its backers would be a far greater objective to achieve. It carries the serious risk of a war that all parties have been saying that they do not want, yet all are preparing for.

The pager attack is just the latest in a string of operations that keeps imperilling any chances of a permanent Gaza ceasefire that could stabilise the region and contribute to the causes of peace rather than war.

Amin Saikal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Will the exploding pager attack be the spark that ignites an Israel-Hezbollah war? – https://theconversation.com/will-the-exploding-pager-attack-be-the-spark-that-ignites-an-israel-hezbollah-war-239302

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Big increases in government spending on child care have been recommended by the Productivity Commission, that would see families earning up to A$80,000 fully subsidised under the Child Care Subsidy (CCS).

This would cover about 30% of families with children aged up to 12 years.

The Higher Child Care Subsidy (HCCS) rate should rise to 100% for families with multiple children aged five and under in early childhood education and incomes up to $140,000, the commission recommends.

It says a taper rate should apply to the subsidies, reducing the rate of subsidy by one percentage point for every $5,000 increase in income.

It also recommends the activity test should be scrapped, declaring young children’s education “should not depend on their parents’ activity”.

The commission released its final report, titled A path to universal early childhood education and care, on Wednesday. The government will respond later. Labor is expected to make further improvements to the system part of its pitch for a second term.

Almost all families using the system “are expected to benefit” from its recommended changes, the commission says.

“Half of families would be eligible for CCS of 90% or more; nearly 80% would be eligible for CCS rates of over 75%.

“Attendance at ECEC [early childhood education and care] is expected to rise by 10%, with most of the increase coming from children from low and middle income families.”

The reforms would increase CCS costs by 37%, to about $17.4 billion annually.

The commission says all families with children aged up to five should be able to have access to at least 30 hours or three days a week of early childhood education for 48 weeks annually.

At present nearly half of one-year-olds attend some form of care, and about 90% of four-year-olds are enrolled in early education. About one in seven children aged five to 12 attend out-of-school-hours care.

The commission says the expansion of early education has boosted workforce participation. In 2023 three in four mothers with children aged up to four were in paid jobs.

But in parts of the country services are scarce, the commission says, and for some families, care may not be affordable or inclusive.

“Children experiencing disadvantage and vulnerability, while most likely to benefit from ECEC, are less likely to attend,” the commission says.

It urges reform be sequenced and a national agreement be concluded between federal, state and territory governments on their roles and responsibilities.

The commission says the path to universal access “will require long-term commitment and investment”.

Governments should work towards expanding access by 2030 for the disadvantaged, particularly in remote, regional and rural areas.

By 2036 all children should have access to at least 30 hours of weekly care.

The commission says as a result of its proposed reforms more children would be developmentally on track when they start school, and labour force participation by parents would be expected to increase.

Education Minister Jason Clare said the government’s already introduced changes had made early childhood education and care more affordable for more than one million families. It had also announced a 15% pay rise for workers and capped fees.

“The report makes clear that more needs to be done to make sure children from poor families , who would benefit the most from high quality early education, are not missing out,” he said.

Crossbencher Zoe Daniel welcomed the report but said, “the timeline isn’t nearly ambitious enough.

“As a critical first step towards a universal system, all children should have access to a minimum of three days of ECEC that is free or at a low set fee like $10 a day.

“This should be a legislated entitlement. Without it being legislated, the cost to parents will continue to skyrocket due to there being no limit on the out-of-pocket fees that providers can charge and too many children and families will continue to miss out on quality ECEC.

“Waiting until 2036 is too long.”

Gradual implementation of ECEC reform

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Productivity Commission charts the costly path to universal early childhood education – https://theconversation.com/productivity-commission-charts-the-costly-path-to-universal-early-childhood-education-239301

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

A former senior member of the Hawke and Keating governments, Gareth Evans, has accused the Albanese government of political timidity, condemning its instinct to “move into cautious, defensive, wedge-avoiding mode”.

In a speech on Wednesday, Evans said the government had enough first-rate ministerial talent “to be a great reforming government in the Hawke-Keating tradition”, spending political capital rather then hording it indefinitely while its value eroded.

But, he said, the government had gone into a defensive mode on issues such as gambling advertising, electoral funding, census questions, the Makarrata commission and any constitutional reform, including for a republic.

“Perhaps most disconcertingly of all, given the security and sovereignty stakes involved” was AUKUS, said Evans, who has been among a number of Labor critics of the agreement, including Paul Keating.

“The government reward for all this has not been an increase but a decline in its popularity,” Evans said.

He acknowledges other factors had contributed to the government’s present situation, including concerns about the cost of living and housing availability, which would be difficult for the most competent government.

“But one can’t avoid the impression that more and more people are asking, what exactly is this Labor government for?

“It’s time for the party leadership to recover its mojo and tell them – a prosperous, secure and above all more decent society, of the kind that only a Labor government can deliver.”

Evans was foreign minister in the Hawke and Keating governments and held various other porfolios; he is also former chancellor of the Australian National University. He was delivering the 2024 Barry Jones Oration. His speech, titled Looking on the Bright Side: the risks – and rewards – of political optimism, exhorted the need to maintain “a spirit of optimism about the art of possible”.

“If we want to change for the better it is crucial we maintain hope.” he said.

“Whether we be in governments or parliaments or intergovernmental organisations, in academia or think-tanks, or in the media, or in NGOs, or with influential social responsibility roles in the private sector, or just plain ordinary citizens with a passion for decency, we have to go on believing that what we do can and will make a difference.”

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Gareth Evans condemns Labor timidity, tells leadership to ‘recover mojo’ – https://theconversation.com/gareth-evans-condemns-labor-timidity-tells-leadership-to-recover-mojo-239209

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Doug Drury, Professor/Head of Aviation, CQUniversity Australia

Planning a flight to an AFL final is like trying to decide when and how to hop on an amusement park ride that hasn’t stopped.

You don’t know where you need to be until the very last minute, and by then, it seems everyone else wants to be there too.

This annual dilemma is now in sharp focus, with preliminary finals coming up this weekend. Sydney will face Port Adelaide at the Sydney Cricket Ground on Friday night, then Geelong will take on Brisbane in Melbourne on Saturday.

Getting to these locations on the right dates can be no mean feat, and some fans have already been stung by surging prices. For those who tried to book over the weekend, prices to fly from Adelaide to Sydney in time for Friday’s game reportedly ranged from $597 to an eye-watering $1,723.

Australia’s airline duopoly is already under intense scrutiny. According to government data released this week, domestic airfares have risen by more than 10% since Rex shut down its capital city services.

So how exactly do airlines price their fares today, and then again once the teams are decided? Why are they allowed to charge so much?

How are airfares priced?

Airfares are set through a process called revenue management. Airlines use mathematical modelling to help determine what we as consumers are willing to pay.

Airlines plan out their entire year based on what services they predict will be needed at certain times – such as travel for school breaks, winter skiing, or summers in Hawaii.

In economics, this is known as seasonal supply and demand. Airlines have the supply, planes, and we as consumers provide the demand.

The cost of flights to cities hosting footy finals might seem outrageous. But these games are one-off events that happen at the same time each year.

Using historical data, airlines have determined that enough people are willing to pay these fares to justify charging them.

Two types of traveller

Airlines base their pricing strategies on the assumption that we as travellers fall into two groups: elastic and inelastic. Here, elasticity simply describes how sensitive demand is to a change in price.

Vacationers with a flexible calendar are an example of elastic travellers, who are able to change their flight dates to get the lowest airfare.

Inelastic travellers, on the other hand, include business travellers who need to be somewhere specific on a particular date, and aren’t paying fares out of their own pocket.

Airlines factor in both of these groups to determine demand-based pricing.

Footy finals create huge amounts of inelastic demand, allowing airlines to push up their prices.

Does the price actually reflect the value?

Transactional utility is a theory based upon the assumption that the price we pay for a product or service should reflect the value we receive. In this case – how much fans are willing to pay to be there to watch the game live.

But individually, this depends on who you barrack for, as well as whether you have the disposable income to pay a premium for the experience. Last year, some airfares to the grand final soared above the $2,000 mark.

So how are the airlines able to set these prices? Are they not regulated by the government? It all comes back to what we as consumers are collectively willing to pay for a diminished supply during high demand. The government does not regulate airfares on that level.

Airlines will not want to sell discounted seats if they know enough of us are willing to pay. They might run more flights, but that doesn’t necessarily mean airfares will come down.

Our decision to buy a seat is based on the perception of its fairness. Getting into the final is costly enough – does the price charged to fly there also seem fair?

Airlines know the psychology of fairness is what will fill the seat. So they will continue to test our perception of fairness on last minute purchases.

Less competition makes it worse

These types of pricing strategies are not unique to Australia. Airlines all around the globe understand the passion associated with championship sporting events and position themselves to take advantage of such moments.

But we also know that here, airlines are pricing what they can in part due to very low competition, only worsened by the recent demise of Bonza and Rex.

Read more:
What just happened to Bonza? Why new budget airlines always struggle in Australia

We can voice our displeasure about this situation with the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, but in the short term, many of us simply continue to pay the airfares.

This is because the other methods of travel either don’t exist, such as high speed rail, or aren’t reasonable, such as driving for multiple days.

Remember, airlines see this as an opportunity to increase their bottom line as part of their revenue management system.

So what should you do if your team makes the grand final? Sell your car or house? Take out a second mortgage?

What if you book now while it’s still relatively cheap and your team doesn’t make the final? Well, there is plenty to do in Melbourne in September!

I, for one, will be watching from the comfort of my lounge room.

Doug Drury does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Flying to a footy final? Watch your wallet. Here’s why airfares soar – https://theconversation.com/flying-to-a-footy-final-watch-your-wallet-heres-why-airfares-soar-239104

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John McAloon, Senior Lecturer, Graduate School of Health, University of Technology Sydney

When young Annie Shearer (Lilly LaTorre) meets a stray dog named Runt (Squid) the two become inseparable.

They live in the dry Western Australian town of Upson Downs where rain hasn’t fallen in over a year. All the water in the district has been stolen upriver and stored in a dam constructed by Earl Robert-Barren (Jack Thompson) on his property, and he has made it his business to buy up every property in the district as they go broke from drought.

Every property, that is, except the Shearer’s.

Directed by John Sheedy and adapted from the book of the same name by Craig Silvey, Runt is a gentle, beautifully shot, and warmly humorous small town Australian story that will appeal to older children and young adolescents – and engage any unsuspecting parents they manage to convince to take them along in the process.

Understanding who you are

Runt is a David and Goliath tale. In their quest to save the farm – and prevail in the struggle that ensues – we travel across the world, where Annie and Runt qualify to compete in the Agility Course Championship at the prestigious Krumpets Dog Show in London.

Under the mentorship of Bernadette Box (Deborah Mailman), a once renowned show dog trainer, and funded by the generosity of the district, their efforts in London could see the farm saved.

Along the way, we see right pitted against wrong, watch evil confronted and, ultimately, see Annie developing an understanding of who she is and what she stands for.

Annie comes from a long line of inventors on her father’s side. Her grandfather – now passed away, and dearly missed by her grandmother Dolly Shearer (Genevieve Lemon) – was a prolific inventor with journals that detailed numerous contraptions.

One in particular, a rainmaker, becomes central as Annie follows her grandfather’s drawings to build the contraption save the family farm from drought.

Annie’s father, Bryan (Jai Courtney), is something of an inventor too. His talents lie in botany.

Creative talents extend also to Annie’s mother Susie Shearer (Celeste Barber) as a seamstress and clothes designer. Her culinary skills are particularly well known throughout the district.

There are some limitations

Despite its appeal, the film is not without its limitations.

It opens with an encounter between Runt, the local butcher shop owner, and a string of sausages.

This encounter is worthy of Lynley Dodd’s Hairy McCleary from Donaldson’s Dairy, however, the opening scenes feel underplayed and the opportunity to establish key characters feels rushed.

This is particularly true of the introduction between Annie and Runt, and also in the early appearance of Constable Duncan Bayleaf (Joel Jackson), whose character fails to develop.

There is obvious advantage in driving a narrative intended for younger viewers by dialogue. But the opportunity to develop these relationships in visual and emotional terms is engaged only to a limited extent. This is unfortunate, as these early scenes are fundamental in establishing the story.

At times the film may engage in concepts that are unfamiliar to its child audiences. One character speaks of being “defiled” after a dog urinates on him. The dating app Dolly uses ends with an all too brief allusion to attraction between her and Bernadette. Concepts such as these may be beyond the comprehension of some younger viewers.

A story about compassion

There are some beautiful cinematic moments in Runt. The placement of Dolly Shearer’s small solo caravan under a lonesome tree on the Shearer’s property functions beautifully as a metaphor for her life, now alone, following the death of her beloved husband.

Similarly, several men comically manoeuvre a blanket to catch Annie’s brother Max Shearer (Jack La Torre), following his parachuted jump from atop the chopping pole at the district fair. This scene reflects on one of the central themes of the book and the film: the tenuous nature of identity and the risks that present themselves in the process of working out who we are and what we stand for.

A few limitations notwithstanding, the film is a success because, ultimately, its central themes prevail. While a story of David and Goliath proportions, it is not one in which David necessarily prevails against Goliath. This is part of its charm.

This is a story about compassion for one’s self and for others, in spite of – or perhaps because of – our quirks. It explores and justifies “kind lies”. It presents the strength of “humble pie”, and values relationships, family and the things “we have under this roof”.

It is a story about a girl who fixes things, and learns that she can’t fix everything. And it’s a story of a dog who finds love – despite its unlikely yet understandable idiosyncrasies.

Runt is in cinemas from tomorrow.

John McAloon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Runt is a gentle, beautifully shot, and warmly humorous small town Australian story – https://theconversation.com/runt-is-a-gentle-beautifully-shot-and-warmly-humorous-small-town-australian-story-239182

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steven Rynne, Associate Professor, Sports Coaching; Affiliate, UQ Poche Centre for Indigenous Health, The University of Queensland

In the world of elite sport, where everything is planned down to the last minute detail, surprisingly few are prepared to acknowledge the inherent role of luck in the outcomes of sporting contests.

It is surprising because luck is a factor that has the potential to affect the outcomes of competition. It can be the difference between a premiership and an early finals exit, or a gold medal and no medal at all.

It is also surprising because the notion of luck is ingrained in so many areas of sport and society – through common actions (fingers crossed, or wearing “lucky socks”), sayings (wishing competitors “good luck”), and religious connections (prayers to various gods of luck or fortune).

Even if athletes, coaches and fans do not want to outwardly acknowledge it, luck is actually part of what makes sport so compelling.

While stronger competitors and teams tend to win, weaker teams or athletes know they still have a chance to snatch victory based on something more than skill alone.

The harder I work, the luckier I get

Presumably, part of the reason that coaches and athletes in particular do not want to outwardly acknowledge the role of luck is that they spend most of their waking hours reducing the possible influence of luck (and increasing the array of things that are perceived as being under their control).

This matches well with the variously-attributed maxim “the harder I work, the luckier I get”.

But it’s not that simple.

Take injuries for example. Coaches and sport scientists use a variety of training and recovery activities to prepare athletes for the rigours of competition.

But as elite athletes push their bodies to the limits, they are more susceptible to injuries.

The timing and severity of injuries can drastically alter careers and seasons.

A key player getting injured before a crucial match can shift the balance of power – cricket fans will never forget Australian bowler Glenn McGrath rolling his ankle on a stray cricket ball in a pre-game warmup, which affected the outcome of the 2005 Ashes series.

Similarly, avoiding injuries can be seen as fortunate for those who manage to stay fit. Take former NRL champion Cameron Smith, the only player to have surpassed the 400-game milestone.

Life’s great lottery: birth

Despite often having similar training regimes, some athletes in the same sports seem to be more or less lucky than their compatriots.

This can be partly attributed to the luck involved in life’s great lottery – birth.

There is great evidence supporting the advantages in sport that come with having lucky genetics.

Think about Simone Biles’ height and power, having a lucky birth date (known as the relative age effect), birthplace (the birthplace effect), and other fortunate circumstances (socio-economic status or sibling order).

External unpredictability

Luck also exists beyond the individual and their circumstances.

For example, unpredictability in physical environments, such as rain delaying matches, wind affecting ball trajectories and extreme temperatures impacting player performance.

Athletes and teams often have little control over these conditions, and a result can sometimes come down to a matter of luck – a ball bouncing one way and not the other, or a gust of wind for one player and not their rival.

The postponement of the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games is a terrific example of this.

An injured or young competitor who was able to make the 2021 event may have considered the delay a fortunate circumstance. But an older athlete who didn’t have the capacity to stretch out their career for an additional year may have been very unlucky.

Getting ‘lady luck’ on your side

In elite sports, the difference in skill between contestants can be razor thin – it is the best of the best.

The subsequent suggestion is that luck therefore has the potential to play an increasingly important role.

This significant and under-appreciated role of luck poses a number of challenges for coaches.

Because it’s almost impossible for an athlete to train to develop luck like they develop a skill or physical attribute, coaches tend to focus on:

Foregrounding process and backgrounding outcome: The importance of outcomes in elite sport is unquestionable.

However, quality coaches emphasise the processes that are most likely to lead to a positive outcome, rather than focusing on the outcome itself.

Even more specifically, the best coaches concentrate their attention (and that of their players) on the things they have most influence over, such as skills, preparation, and decision-making, rather than things they do not (like a coin toss, random bounces and deflections, poorly timed injuries or equipment failures).

Training and recovery: Coaches plan for high level training that accounts for as many performance factors as possible, including biophysical (physical capacities of the athlete) and psychosocial (knowing themselves and working with others).

They also try to fully leverage certain inherent forms of luck such as capitalising on genetics through talent identification and training.

Avoiding overtraining is another approach that coaches take to reduce the chances of bad luck through injuries.

Train for unpredictability: As well as generally emphasising quality repetitions for their athletes in training, contemporary coaches also regularly introduce variable practices, scenario-based disruptions, and natural variations in the physical environment.

This not only provides players with opportunities to practice their core skills, it gives them opportunities to practice responding in positive ways to good luck (“seize the moment”) and bad luck (refocusing after freak occurrences).

Balancing planning with instinct: Coaches work with their athletes to develop comprehensive game plans and a variety of contingency plans for competition.

However, coaches will also often support their athletes to deviate from these established plans to “roll the dice” when appropriate. This typically involves coaches giving their players licence to take calculated risks (such as taking a long-range shot from a difficult angle in soccer) when certain circumstances arise.

There’s no escaping luck in sports

While skill and preparation are indispensable, the role of luck in elite sports is undeniable.

From Steven Bradbury’s serendipity at the 2002 Winter Olympics to St Kilda’s unfavourable bounce at the end of the drawn AFL grand final in 2010, luck has almost certainly impacted all athletes at some stage of their careers.

Luck adds an element of unpredictability, makes sports thrilling and, at times, heartbreakingly capricious.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The harder I work, the luckier I get? What coaches, athletes and fans need to understand about luck in sport – https://theconversation.com/the-harder-i-work-the-luckier-i-get-what-coaches-athletes-and-fans-need-to-understand-about-luck-in-sport-238310

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steve D’Alessandro, Professor of Marketing, School of Business and Law, Edith Cowan University

It is difficult to spend any time on the internet these days without being inundated with advertisements.

In Australia alone this year, online advertising has increased 9.3% and is now worth more than A$3.7 billion. That is a lot more pop-ups and promotions in our daily lives – and as data scientists and marketing specialists chase more short-term sales targets, there’s bound to be more.

Not all advertising is bad – especially if it saves you money and targets your interests. But you may have noticed as you’ve scrolled through social media or read the news online recently that the ads you see are often impersonal and irrelevant to your interests. They are also sometimes dangerous, promoting harmful and illegal medical products.

All of this goes against the common assumption that technological advancements combined with increased personal data collection would lead to a better online experience for people. Instead, it seems as though online advertising is making peoples’ experience on the internet worse. So, why is this happening? And is there anything that can be done about it?

Annoying ads

People are more likely to engage with online advertising if it is personalised and relevant to them. Unsurprisingly, the opposite is also true: people find general display and mass-targeted pop-up ads annoying. These kinds of ads are so annoying they will often lead to people leaving a website.

This is not only bad for people’s experiences online – it is also bad for business.

And yet irrelevant advertising is widespread on the internet. For example, a 2022 study found that on Facebook, nearly one-third of advertisements were irrelevant, despite the social media platform’s intensive user profiling system.

Another reason for ads being annoying is that they can invade our personal social media space and threaten our privacy, if they are too personalised. Do I want others looking over my shoulder at my screen to know I’m slowly losing my hair?

People express psychological ownership of their Facebook and Instagram accounts, even though in effect they – the user – are the product. They find personalised advertisements invasive, and generalised banner advertising obtrusive.

But these effects can be reduced if consumer privacy is respected. And if people have the ability to opt in or out of receiving advertising, research shows personalised advertising will be effective.

Imagine receiving personalised ads about the latest tour of your favourite musician – and being able to opt out of the ads once you’ve bought tickets to the gig.

The issue is that there is no opt-out clause on many social media sites.

What’s driving the flood of annoying ads?

One of the main reasons for the flood of rubbish ads is that nearly all advertising online is now automated. For example, in the United States, 90% of banner ads, pop-ups and other digital display ads are automated.

Often called “programmatic advertising”, these ads are automatically placed on websites and social media feeds without human intervention. Total spend on these ads has grown from US$4.99 billion in 2013 to US$156.8 billion today.

The basis for the ads being present can be context (something related to what you are viewing) or behavioural (related to your browsing history and search terms).

Without detailed consumer research asking you about your motivations and interests, it is hard for a program to infer them just from your browsing history. But that doesn’t really matter because the ads are cheap to produce (even if they have a low hit rate).

This high prevalence of programmatic advertising occurs online as there are no legal restrictions on the number of adverts people are exposed to. This is very different to traditional media such as television.

Ads don’t have to be so annoying

Some users take back control from online ads by installing ad-blocker software. These can be free versions in the form of a browser extension, or more advanced versions with a subscription fee.

Some companies such as YouTube have made a business model out of making it possible for people to opt out of advertising. To achieve this state of bliss, you need to pay an annual subscription fee.

But for those of us who can’t or won’t opt out, companies can also find simple ways to make ads less annoying – and more effective for the advertisers.

For example, Google Chrome has stopped the use of auto-play video. This gives people more control over the advertising they do encounter online.

Another way to achieve this is by allowing users greater interactivity with advertisements. One example is carousel advertising, where you can scroll left and right when reading content. Interactive advertising increases one’s feelings of control and leads to greater engagement.

Creating engaging and relevant online advertising is more costly and takes longer to produce. But it’s likely to be more effective – and much less annoying.

Steve D’Alessandro does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why is the internet overflowing with rubbish ads – and what can we do about it? – https://theconversation.com/why-is-the-internet-overflowing-with-rubbish-ads-and-what-can-we-do-about-it-237980

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.9–46.0. In my previous US politics article on September 9, Harris led Trump by 48.7–46.2.

Joe Biden’s final position before his withdrawal as Democratic candidate on July 21 was a national poll deficit against Trump of 45.2–41.2. By the election, Biden will be almost 82, Trump is now 78 and Harris will be 60.

Harris has been boosted by her performance in the September 10 debate between Harris and Trump, and she needed this boost after her national lead dropped below two points in Silver’s aggregate before there were many post-debate polls. In a YouGov poll for Yahoo news that was taken in the three days after the debate, respondents thought Harris won the debate by 56–26 over Trump.

Harris may have been further boosted by Trump continuing after the debate with the baseless claims about Haitian immigrants eating pets. We don’t yet have any polls conducted since Sunday’s second assassination attempt against Trump, and this may interrupt Harris’ debate bounce.

Before the debate, Harris was dropping slowly from a four-point lead in national polls on August 25 to two points at the debate. It’s unlikely there will be another presidential debate, and Harris’ debate bounce could fade.

Harris’ Electoral College problem

The US president isn’t elected by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives electoral votes equal to its federal House seats (population based) and senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes as winner takes all, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).

Relative to the national popular vote, the Electoral College is biased to Trump. According to Silver’s model, Harris needs at least a two-point popular vote win to be the Electoral College favourite. She needs at least a four-point popular vote win to be a 94% favourite in the Electoral College.

Harris’ Electoral College win probability in Silver’s model has improved from a low of 35% on September 9 to 43.5% today, but Trump is still the favourite with a 56% win probability. The projection of the popular vote is a Harris win by 50.3–48.5, and this 1.8-point margin is lower than Harris’ 2.9-point margin in current polls, implying some debate bounce adjustment.

Harris has a 67% chance to win the national popular vote, but there’s a 24% chance in Silver’s model that she wins the popular vote, but loses the Electoral College.

There have not yet been many state polls conducted since the debate, and we will need to wait for them to know more. Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes, remains the most important state for either Harris or Trump to win. If either wins Pennsylvania, their chance to win is over 90%. The polling average in Pennsylvania gives Harris a 0.5-point lead.

The FiveThirtyEight forecast model is far more favourable to Harris than Silver’s model, with Harris now at a 61% Electoral College win probability in this model. This appears to be because its popular vote projection is at Harris by 4.2 points, implying that she will slightly expand her current lead, not have it reduced.

US economic data

In August US headline inflation rose 0.2%, the same increase as in July. In the last 12 months, it has risen 2.5%, the smallest 12-month increase since 2021. Core inflation rose 0.3% in August, the highest monthly core increase since April; it has risen 3.2% in the last 12 months.

In August, real (inflation-adjusted) hourly earnings were up 0.2% and real weekly earnings up 0.5% owing to an increase in hours worked. In the last 12 months, real hourly earnings were up 1.3% and real weekly earnings up 0.9%.

In August, the unemployment rate was down 0.1% from July to 4.2%. The July unemployment rate of 4.3% was the highest since October 2021, when the US was recovering from the COVID recession. In July, the personal savings rate was down 0.2% from June to 2.9%, its lowest since June 2022.

Silver’s economic index that calculates the average of six indicators is at +0.06, suggesting an economy just above average. Silver wrote last Friday that the Electoral College and the economy are two key reasons to favour Trump in the election.

Australian state polls: WA and Victoria

The Western Australian state election will be held in March 2025. The Poll Bludger reported on September 11 that a Freshwater poll for The West Australian gave Labor a 55–45 lead, from primary votes of 39% Labor, 38% Liberals and Nationals, 11% Greens and 12% for all Others. This poll agrees with a Wolf + Smith WA poll that also gave Labor a 55–45 lead. The sample size was 1,045.

Labor Premier Roger Cook had a +7 net approval, while Liberal leader Libby Mettam had a +4 net approval. Former premier Mark McGowan was at +41. Cook had a 46–34 preferred premier lead over Mettam.

A Victorian Resolve poll for The Age, conducted with the August and September federal Resolve polls from a sample of over 1,000, gave the Coalition 37% of the primary vote (steady since July), Labor 27% (steady), the Greens 14% (down one), independents 15% (steady) and others 7% (up one).

Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-party figure, but The Poll Bludger estimated “a roughly even split”. Labor’s Jacinta Allan led the Liberals’ John Pesutto by just 30–29 as preferred premier (31–28 previously).

By 43–27, voters supported building the Suburban Rail Loop (SRL). But given a choice between the SRL and a rail link connecting the airport and city, 53% chose the airport rail link and just 16% the SRL.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Harris gains in post-debate US national polls, but will her gains be sustained? – https://theconversation.com/harris-gains-in-post-debate-us-national-polls-but-will-her-gains-be-sustained-239059

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Corey J. A. Bradshaw, Matthew Flinders Professor of Global Ecology and Node Leader in the ARC Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, Flinders University

Imagine growing up beside the eastern Mediterranean Sea 14,000 years ago. You’re an accomplished sailor of the small watercraft you and your fellow villagers make, and you live off both the sea and the land.

But times have been difficult — there just isn’t the same amount of game or fish around as when you were a child. Maybe it’s time to look elsewhere for food.

Now imagine going farther than ever before in your little boat, accompanied maybe by a few others, when suddenly you spot something on the horizon. Is that an island?

An island of tiny elephants and hippos

Welcome to Cyprus as the world emerges from the last ice age. You are the first human to set your eyes on this huge, heavily forested island teeming with food.

When you beach your boat to have a look around, you can’t believe what you’re seeing — tiny boar-sized hippos and horse-sized elephants that look like babies to your eyes. There are so many of them, and you’re hungry after the long journey.

The diminutive beasts don’t seem to show any fear. You easily kill a few and preserve the meat as best you can for the long journey back.

When you get home, you are excited to let everyone in the village know what you’ve found. Soon enough, you organise a major expedition back to the island.

Of course, we’ll never know if this kind of scenario took place, but it’s a plausible story of how and when the first humans managed to get to Cyprus. It also illustrates how they might have quickly brought about the demise of the tiny hippopotamus Phanourios minor, as well as the dwarf elephant Palaeoloxodon cypriotes.

Dwarf ‘giants’

Cyprus wasn’t the only Mediterranean island with dwarf wildlife. In fact, Crete, Malta, Sicily, Sardinia and many other islands had their own dwarf elephants and hippos.

Island dwarfism — the process in which a once large, mainland species evolves to become smaller in response to fewer resources and predators — is in fact quite common. Unfortunately, the process also makes such species more vulnerable to rapid environmental change, including the arrival of new predators such as humans.

The Cypriot dwarf hippopotamus was the smallest dwarf hippo in the Mediterranean region. Genetic data suggest it diverged from the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius) roughly 1.5 million years ago.

The Cypriot dwarf elephant was less than 10% of the size of its mainland ancestor, the straight-tusked elephant (Palaeoloxodon antiquus) that inhabited Europe and Western Asia during the Middle and Late Pleistocene.

An extinction controversy

For a long time, many archaeologists and palaeontologists didn’t believe humans had anything to do with the extinction of these two “megafauna” species on Cyprus.

The doubters assumed that either people arrived well after the extinctions, or the earliest humans were too few to be able to kill off entire species.

Earlier this year we showed that people came to Cyprus between 14,000 and 13,000 years ago, well before hippos and elephants went extinct. We also showed that the human population likely grew to several thousand within a few hundred years of arrival. But we didn’t know whether this human population was large enough to drive the dwarf hippos and elephants to extinction.

Our new research published today answers this question with a combination of several different types of mathematical models.

Read more:
Humans are not off the hook for extinctions of large herbivores – then or now

Could a small human population cause extinction?

Even though these animals are long extinct, we can draw some conclusions about their likely population because we can estimate their weights from palaeontological information. The dwarf hippo weighed around 130kg, and the dwarf elephant came in at just over 500kg.

We also know how to translate weights to estimates of population size, longevity, survival and fertility. We can even use data collected from related species still living today, such as the pygmy hippo and the African elephant, to estimate how fast they would have grown.

With this information, we built computer models of what would have happened to the two mini-megafauna species on Cyprus when human hunters arrived. We estimated how efficient human hunters would be, how long it would take them to process each carcass, and how much energy hunter-gatherers need to survive.

We also estimated how much of the human diet included these species, and how this proportion might have changed as the dwarf hippo and elephant numbers dwindled.

We found that even a small human population, numbering between 3,000 and 7,000, could have easily driven first dwarf hippos, and then dwarf elephants, to extinction. Our model showed the process would have taken less than 1,000 years. This prediction matches the sequence of extinction inferred from the palaeontological record.

Our results provide strong evidence that palaeolithic peoples in Cyprus were at least partially, if not entirely, responsible for megafauna extinctions during the Late Pleistocene and early Holocene.

Cyprus was the perfect place to test our models because the island offers an ideal set of conditions to examine whether the arrival of humans ultimately led to the extinction of its megafauna. This is because Cyprus was a relatively simple test case – a small island of around 11,000 square kilometres at the time, with only two species of megafauna.

Our research therefore improves our understanding of how even small human populations can disrupt ecosystems and cause major extinctions, particularly in times of rapid environmental change.

Read more:
How the extinction of ice age mammals may have forced us to invent civilisation

Corey J. A. Bradshaw receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Christian Reepmeyer receives funding from the Australan Research Council and the German Foreign Office.

Theodora Moutsiou receives funding from the European Regional Development Fund and the Republic of Cyprus through the Research and Innovation Foundation (EXCELLENCE/0421/0050) for the project Modelling Demography and Adaptation in the Initial Peopling of the Eastern Mediterranean Islandscape (MIGRATE, 2022–2024).

– ref. Small populations of Stone Age people drove dwarf hippos and elephants to extinction on Cyprus – https://theconversation.com/small-populations-of-stone-age-people-drove-dwarf-hippos-and-elephants-to-extinction-on-cyprus-238999

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy Welch, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

As the government’s plan to increase speed limits begins to roll out, a group of local and international road safety and health experts has warned the move will lead to more death and injury, and disputed claims higher speed limits will bring economic gains.

The group’s open letter echoes concerns raised since the policy was announced – that roads will become less predictable to use, less efficient and significantly more dangerous, particularly for children and other vulnerable people.

Evidence suggests the changes are also unlikely to improve commutes or boost economic growth and productivity, as Transport Minister Simeon Brown has argued.

Nor will raising some open road limits from 100 kilometres per hour to 110km per hour, and increasing urban speed limits, magically clear congestion. It will simply change the number on the sign while cars continue to inch forward in traffic.

On less congested roads, higher speed limits can make commutes less predictable by increasing the likelihood of sudden braking, risky lane changes and other hazardous manoeuvres, while also reducing reaction times.

As speeds increase, the probability of crashes also rises sharply. Research shows even a 5km per hour increase in speed can double the risk of a fatal crash in urban areas. Traffic crashes carry an enormous financial burden, with a social cost of nearly NZ$12 billion in 2022 alone, and almost $225 billion since 2001.

Studies of New Zealand roads have shown increasing speeds leads to disproportionate increases in fuel consumption. For example, on long routes, reducing maximum speeds from 100km per hour to 80km per hour reduced fuel consumption by about 15% – much higher savings than the corresponding reduction in travel time.

Higher speeds often result in increased costs rather than improved efficiency. Overall, as the expert group has argued, the rationale for increasing speed limits goes against the evidence.

Children at risk

Proponents argue even marginal time savings for some drivers justify the changes. But at what cost? Those small time gains for a few come at the expense of safety for many, particularly children.

Take Auckland’s Tyndale Park Christian School and Te Uho o te Nikau Primary School, for example. Both are near a single intersection in Flat Bush and are a microcosm of the wider negative impacts of higher speed limits.

The limit on Murphy’s Road in front of Tyndale Park will jump from 60 to 80km per hour, while Flat Bush Road outside Te Uho o te Nikau will see limits rise from 30 to 50km per hour.

Since 2020, Murphy’s Road and Flat Bush Road have had more lanes added, making both roads twice as wide. Faster speeds will make it more difficult and potentially dangerous for children to cross.

Car crashes are the leading cause of accidental death of New Zealand children, and the country already ranks among the worst in the developed world for fatal crashes involving children.

Children aged four and under are most at risk of being struck by a vehicle. While many child passengers killed in crashes weren’t properly restrained, higher speeds only add more risk.

The government argues variable speed limits around schools during pick-up and drop-off times will mitigate those risks. But this fails to address the fundamental issue: roads must be safe for all users at all times.

A child doesn’t stop being vulnerable outside school hours, and the danger posed by higher speeds is constant. These streets are where children play, visit friends and head to sports.

Cities elsewhere are slowing down

Overseas experience and evidence shows how safer speeds can save both lives and money.

In 2019, Oslo in Norway achieved zero pedestrian or cyclist deaths thanks to its Vision Zero policy, which prioritises safety over speed. Helsinki in Finland saw similar success, with only three traffic deaths that year.

Closer to home, Hobart recently lowered speed limits in its central areas to 40km per hour, aligning with global trends to improve road safety. Specific results are still pending, but evidence from Edinburgh in Scotland shows lowering speed limits to 20 miles per hour (32km per hour) across most of the city in 2018, particularly near schools, has far exceeded expectations.

Three years later, traffic casualties had fallen by 20% and collisions were reduced by 22%. These statistics represent lives saved and injuries prevented, outstripping what experts predicted from speed changes alone.

A Vision Zero strategy in the US city of Portland – very similar to Auckland in size and urban planning challenges – targets the elimination of traffic deaths and severe injuries, and is already showing promise.

Recent research by the World Bank has also debunked the idea higher speeds drive economic growth. On the contrary, it shows slower speeds reduce the massive costs of road crashes – not just obvious ones like ambulance rides and hospital bills, but hidden ones such as rising insurance premiums and productivity losses.

Ultimately, when we slow down, our streets become more than just roads. They transform into places people want to walk, bike and spend time, all of which boosts the local economy. Cities around the world are figuring this out – New Zealand should also prioritise safety and livability over the false promises of speed.

Timothy Welch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Faster is not always better: why the case for higher speed limits is fatally flawed – https://theconversation.com/faster-is-not-always-better-why-the-case-for-higher-speed-limits-is-fatally-flawed-239181

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Carol Ronken, Industry Fellow in the Centre of Justice, Queensland University of Technology

Warning: This article discusses details of child sexual abuse

On one hand I would struggle to know that my abuse material was out there being circulated to even the well meaning authorities. But on the other hand the use of it could help sooo many other children.

These are the words of a victim-survivor of child sexual abuse. They reflect a profound tension regarding the use of photos or videos depicting child sexual abuse for legitimate purposes.

This material is used by police investigating sexual exploitation, and by courts to prosecute cases. It is also used by the technology industry and researchers to understand and fight its production and distribution.

But there is a substantial gap in research exploring victim-survivors’ views on this practice. This is a serious problem.

My colleagues and I have been working hard to fill this gap by interviewing victim-survivors to find out what they think. Our early findings show they have several concerns about the use of child sexual abuse material for legitimate purposes.

A lived-experience evidence base is needed

Victim-survivors of child sexual abuse are increasingly speaking out on the long-lasting damage and impact of having their images and videos circulated on the internet. The lack of control over the existence of the material and its circulation can impact the recovery of victim-survivors.

Collecting evidence about the views of victim-survivors is an important first step towards making better rules to govern how child sexual abuse material can be used to fight crime. It ensures victim-survivor views inform processes that support institutional uses of abuse material.

Listening to victim-survivors is also an important acknowledgement of their experiences. And it provides them with a level of ownership and control of the material that captures their abuse.

To help build this evidence base, we surveyed 80 child sexual abuse victim-survivors. We wanted to know what they thought about the tech industry, police and researchers using child sexual abuse material for legitimate purposes.

Mixed views

One theme in the survey responses is the need for greater awareness about the retention and use of child sexual abuse material by police, tech companies and researchers.

Only 60% of respondents whose abuse was recorded were aware that material was retained by police. Only 45% and 35%, respectively, were aware that tech companies and researchers also used this material in their work.

Some 90% wanted to be informed of how material would be used. The same amount wanted the opportunity to decide how the material would be used, if at all.

As one survey respondent told us:

Victims of child sex abuse material have already had their agency and rights stripped [from] them in this way, should every step not be taken to ensure consent is gathered BEFORE using the materials?

We found 70% of victim-survivors would be comfortable with police, courts, researchers or private sector organisations retaining material documenting or depicting their abuse if it was used in the investigation or prosecution of the perpetrator(s) of their abuse.

The same proportion were also supportive of material depicting their abuse being used to help investigate or prosecute sexual crimes against other children.

If given the choice, three-quarters of victim-survivors would want all material documenting or depicting their abuse to be destroyed. However, given that complete destruction may be impossible, 80% stated they would agree with material documenting their abuse being used in technology that helps to detect and remove copies of content depicting their abuse that have been posted online.

A majority of respondents (70%) whose abuse had been recorded stated they would be supportive of police, courts, researchers or organisations that develop technology to fight this type of crime using the photos and videos of their abuse.

Key lessons

Many victim-survivors described their concerns with the retention of material depicting their abuse.

I also feel like once again my soul and my childhood is being held at ransom in order to create good in the world. If only our abuse could end at its end, but instead its legacy is needed to achieve more.

By listening to these concerns, the tech industry, police and researchers will be better able use child sexual abuse material to fight crime without retraumatising victim-survivors.

We gratefully acknowledge the bravery of our research participants and thank them for their generosity of time, willingness to share their perspectives, and desire to effect change together. We are extremely appreciative of all victims and survivors who participated in this research and acknowledge the difficulties in providing insights into concepts that were sometimes unfamiliar, uncomfortable, or unclear.

If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.

The National Sexual Assault, Family and Domestic Violence Counselling Line – 1800 RESPECT (1800 737 732) – is available 24 hours a day, seven days a week for any Australian who has experienced, or is at risk of, family and domestic violence and/or sexual assault.

13YARN is a free and confidential 24/7 national crisis support line for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people who are feeling overwhelmed or having difficulty coping. Call 13 92 76.

This research is funded by the National Centre for Action on Child Sexual Abuse and being conducted through the AI for Law Enforcement and Community Safety lab at Monash University and the Bravehearts Foundation.

– ref. ‘Held at ransom’: victim-survivors open up about the use of child sex abuse material to fight crime – https://theconversation.com/held-at-ransom-victim-survivors-open-up-about-the-use-of-child-sex-abuse-material-to-fight-crime-237659

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Partington, Research Fellow (Health Economics), Flinders University

Australia is facing a surge in hospital presentations in older adults. Between 2015–16 and 2019–20, hospitalisations among people aged 75–84 increased by an average of 3% annually, the largest rise of any age group.

This growing demand places significant pressure on the health-care system, contributing to poor patient flow, extended stays in emergency departments (EDs), and even ambulance ramping. This is when paramedics are made to wait at the hospital’s entrance and can’t transfer their patient into the ED within an appropriate time frame.

In response, some health system leaders recently called for the creation of standalone geriatric hospitals to specifically cater to the needs of older patients.

But is this a good idea? While there may be some benefits, the call for specialised geriatric hospitals signals Australia’s failure to provide adequate aged care.

Geriatric care in Australia

Across Australia, geriatric care is often delivered in hospitals as a sub-acute admission, in specialised wards, units and clinics, following the acute care part of a hospital stay.

One pathway is geriatric evaluation and management services, which target the functioning of patients with age-related medical conditions, such as frailty and cognitive decline, after a surgery or other medical episode.

In most states, geriatric evaluation and management services can also be delivered in the home.

Looking at data from public hospitals around the country, we can see the level of services vary from state to state. We calculate that in 2020–21, geriatric evaluation and management services involving at least one overnight stay represented 45% of admitted sub-acute care in Victoria and 20% in South Australia, but only around 8% in the Australian Capital Territory and New South Wales.

These sorts of hospital-based services take a holistic view to assess multiple aspects of an older person’s health, such as mobility, mental status, medication management, nutrition and social support, to tailor individualised care plans that help older people to live at home for longer, with a greater quality of life.

On the flip side, lack of access to community-based aged care – such as home care packages – is often thought to drive the need for specialised geriatric care in hospitals and longer hospital stays.

We know the current waiting time for a level 4 package (the highest level) is nine to 12 months, though the government has pledged to reduce this with new aged care reforms.

Without adequate support at home, older adults often end up in hospital where they can sometimes spend weeks or months awaiting a transfer to aged care.

Pros and cons of geriatric hospitals

A specialised geriatric hospital could be designed around the needs of older patients. This might include specialised medical and support services, but also a tailored physical environment, such as clear signage and quiet spaces.

It’s important to think about who would staff these standalone geriatric hospitals. Geriatric patients would still need specialists other than geriatricians, so this would necessitate cardiologists with a specialisation in geriatric cardiology, for example. Alternatively, separating care in this way could mean geriatric patients receive lower quality cardiology care (and that of other specialties).

Would additional capacity in a standalone hospital help with health system pressures? The simple answer is yes, but, as with adding any new capacity into the hospital system, if it unlocks unmet demand and attracts even more patients into hospitals from the community and aged care, then it would be unlikely to help with ED congestion.

It’s also worth considering whether a standalone hospital would include its own geriatric ED. It’s unlikely an ED in this context would achieve the patient volumes EDs require to maintain quality and efficiency. But without one, transfers from existing EDs would further stretch scarce ambulance resources.

So, would a standalone geriatric hospital be more cost-effective than spending the same budget required to build it, in other ways? By focusing on specific populations for whom the impact would be greatest, we could make the business case stack up.

Dementia care: a potential focus for specialised hospitals

Psychogeriatric care – the mental health care of older people – is a prime example of where federal funding gaps fail patients. This is especially the case for people with behavioural and psychological symptoms of dementia.

Families are not well supported in the community to manage the huge care burden, and community care is not tailored to provide appropriate support for these people. Consequently, patients end up stuck in the social safety net that is a public hospital bed.

These beds often provide non-specialised care for dementia patients. Unfamiliar and overstimulating environments, coupled with staff who may misinterpret these patients’ behaviours, only worsens challenging behaviour. This in turn makes it harder for aged care providers to accept the person.

Currently in SA, there are anecdotally 50 to 70 patients with symptoms suggestive of dementia stuck in hospital, with no pressing medical reason to be there, waiting for somewhere they can be safely discharged, such as aged care. Our experience is that, on average, the length of stay for these patients is 50 to 60 days and contributes to bottlenecks within the ED. These numbers will only grow as the population ages.

A standalone dementia hospital could bring the states and Commonwealth together on care for people with behavioural and psychological symptoms of dementia. It cannot replace residential aged care, but could help with the transition by improving the hospital experience for people with specific age-related needs.

However, it would be essential to retain existing multidisciplinary approaches, such as geriatric evaluation and management services, to avoid isolating or segregating care for those who are already vulnerable.

Improving existing hospitals for older people

While the call for standalone geriatric hospitals may have some merit, ultimately it signals Australia’s failure to provide adequate and integrated hospital and aged care.

The Commonwealth government recently announced significant changes to aged care funding and new supports for home-based care. Existing hospital services would certainly function better with more options for patients to be referred onto once their hospital stay is due to finish.

The forthcoming Commonwealth Aged Care Act is expected to reform many aspects of the care of older Australians. But without further detail and cooperation between the federal government and states and territories, integrated service planning is impossible.

In the meantime, existing hospitals could begin to recast themselves as places better suited to the needs of older people.

Andrew Partington does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article. He has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Craig Whitehead receives funding from the the NHMRC and MRFF. He is also a board director for Helping Hand aged care.

Jonathan Karnon receives funding from the NHMRC and MRFF.

– ref. Could geriatric hospitals reduce pressure on the health system? Maybe – but improving aged care is paramount – https://theconversation.com/could-geriatric-hospitals-reduce-pressure-on-the-health-system-maybe-but-improving-aged-care-is-paramount-238226

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Monica Fahey, Adjunct Fellow in molecular ecology, Macquarie University

For millennia, Indigenous knowledge holders have passed down lore to the next generation. Much lore describes the relationships between people and Country, including custodial responsibilities to care for other species as kin.

Each species carries a history of movement and change in its DNA. By quantifying how related one individual of a species is to another, evolutionary ecologists can infer how a species migrated in the deep past.

When we combine both types of knowledge – lore and genetics – we can make new discoveries. Our recent body of research uses genomic techniques and interviews with First Nations knowledge holders to investigate whether First Nations Peoples moved two culturally important food sources, bunya pines and black bean trees.

Bunya pines

The bunya pine (Araucaria bidwillii) is an ancient native conifer of cultural and spiritual significance to several language groups in eastern Australia. It’s known as bonyi bonyi in Wakka Wakka and bunyi in Kabi Kabi.

For thousands of years, Indigenous groups gathered to share the edible nuts at bunya gatherings at locations such as Wakka Wakka Country in the Western Downs and Kabi Kabi Country in the Sunshine Coast hinterland. The last major known gathering took place in 1902, but they have restarted in recent years.

Bunya pines grow throughout Queensland’s southeast. They’re also found 1,400 km north, in the Wet Tropics near Cairns. In a recent study, co-author Patrick Cooke interviewed First Nations groups in both locations in southeast Queensland and the Wet Tropics to record Indigenous biocultural knowledge on the use of bunya.

In a companion study, Traditional Owners and this article’s lead author collected DNA samples from bunya pine leaves to retrace the conifer’s historical movement in its northern and southern locations. Genetic results were interpreted in the context of biocultural knowledge and archival evidence.

What did we find? In the Wet Tropics, we could not find traditional names or biocultural knowledge for bunya. DNA samples showed no evidence of its dispersal by people or animals. This suggests the species was not an important food source for First Nations groups in the region. In the absence of human-assisted dispersal, the remnant stands of bunya have become genetically isolated.

By contrast, groups in southeast Queensland had rich biocultural knowledge of bunya. DNA samples showed clear evidence of movement, consistent with people actively moving the species around. But when we analysed bunya patches pre-dating European colonisation, we found genetic patterns suggesting planting was sporadic and fairly localised.

Our Indigenous knowledge interviews and historical literature give crucial context. Knowledge holders told us only those with custodial rights to bunya were permitted to collect and share the edible cones, which likely restricted the movement of bunya out of existing Country.

This changed when First Nations people were displaced by European settlers. Wakka Wakka people planted bunya at Cherbourg mission in southeastern Queensland and Mulli Mulli mission on Githabul Country in northern New South Wales to maintain cultural connections.

Black bean trees

Like bunya pines, black bean trees (Castanospermum australe) have been an important food source for thousands of years. While the large seeds are toxic, they can be made edible.

Here, we have found evidence this rainforest species was spread on purpose – and rapidly.

The tree does not need to have its toxic seeds eaten. Instead, it relies on its seed pods floating down rivers to new locations. Curiously, the tree can be found far from any waterways. How did it get there?

We found evidence Bundjalung groups spread black bean thousands of years ago, as they walked the ridgelines of the Nightcap, Border and McPherson ranges in northern New South Wales. This route follows the Nguthungulli Songline, a cultural pathway tracing the journeys of an ancestral spirit (likely to represent a real person) who left “bean tree” seeds as he journeyed inland from the east coast.

Samples taken adjacent to the Nguthungulli Songline showed higher levels of genetic diversity compared to other sample sites. This is what we would expect to see if seeds from different areas had been deliberately walked uphill along the songline and subsequently spread downstream through the waterways.

Ongoing genetic analyses suggest the black bean tree remained in small coastal pockets until Bundjalung groups walked its seeds northwards into southeast Queensland.

The Bundjalung story of Three Brothers tells of the arrival or return of key ancestors of Bundjalung peoples and related language groups Githabul and Yugambeh to coastal northern NSW. All three language groups use the name “bugam” for the black bean seed, which suggests a rapid transfer or shared ancestral connection to the species.

Walking plants

These stories raise interesting questions about why Indigenous groups carried and nurtured plants in some cases and not others.

In the Wet Tropics, for instance, the lack of evidence for movement of black bean and bunya could be linked to different dietary preferences and alternative edible nuts.

In northern NSW and southeast Queensland, bunya gatherings brought far-flung groups and kin together. We speculate these social and cultural reasons may have been seen as more important than simply increasing food production by planting the tree in new locations.

But the deliberate movement of black bean along the Nguthungulli Songline shows some groups took the tree with them to ensure access to its nuts.

Read more:
Iconic boab trees trace journeys of ancient Aboriginal people

Domestication over deeper time

For years, researchers thought domesticating a plant for human use was relatively straightforward. But newer research suggests it was a lengthier and more complex process than we thought.

Unpicking the deeper past using First Nations lore and genetic analysis is a promising combination to shed light on domestication. We hope it will become more widely used.

As we continue, we are likely to find examples of where Indigenous movement of plants worked to domesticate landscapes. That is, social and cultural preferences of ancestral groups drove ecological transformations which seem, at first glance, to be natural.

Read more:
Farmers or foragers? Pre-colonial Aboriginal food production was hardly that simple

Monica Fahey works for the Research Centre for Ecosystem Resilience, Botanic Gardens of Sydney. She received funding from the Australian Research Council. She is also affiliated with Macquarie University.

Emilie Ens receives funding from the Australian Research Council, The Nature Conservancy, NSW DCCEEW and the Origin Energy Foundation.

Oliver Costello is a Bundjalung Custodian and Executive Director at Jagun Alliance Aboriginal Corporation. He receives funding from The University of Melbourne; Bush Heritage Australia; the University of Queensland; the Ian Potter Foundation; the Hermon Slade Foundation; CSIRO; the Victorian Government Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP); Natural Resource Management (NRM) Regions Australia, The Nature Conservancy and The Australian Conservation Foundation.

Patrick Cooke is a Gangalidda Custodian and affiliated with Macquarie University.

Maurizio Rossetto does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Walking the trees: we traced how First Nations groups moved bunya pine and black bean trees – https://theconversation.com/walking-the-trees-we-traced-how-first-nations-groups-moved-bunya-pine-and-black-bean-trees-229914

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elizabeth Humphrys, Lecturer and Head of Discipline, Social and Political Sciences & Climate, Society and Environment Research Centre (C-SERC), University of Technology Sydney

Recent weeks have seen mobilisations of construction workers protesting the imposition of an administrator on their union by the government. Protesters were decked out in black and hi-vis workwear, with fluorescent orange and yellow as far as the eye could see.

On the same day as the biggest rallies, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese held a press conference on the construction site of the new Western Sydney airport wearing a dress shirt, hard hat and hi-vis.

While visiting an operational worksite generally requires wearing hi-vis for safety, there’s deeper politics at play, with politicians often choosing such sites – and, consequently, clothes – to signal something else.

Hi-vis can be worn by so many types of people: from protesters with diverse political views, to leaders in high office. So how did hi-vis become so deeply embedded in our culture, from protests to political press conferences, appearing in music videos, comedy and worn by GWS Giants supporters?

Context is everything

In Australia, hi-vis is legally required and standardised PPE (personal protective equipment) in many industries. Hi-vis garments often combine two types of light-reflection: fluorescent material for daytime use, and strips of silvery retro-reflective material for night use.

Beyond being required for safety, hi-vis carries other meanings, which intersect with class, gender, race and politics.

We’ve been researching these meanings, and we have found in Australia, hi-vis can symbolise safety, authority, working class masculinity, “being employed”, or the idea of the “average Australian”.

Hi-vis can enable official access, and it can stop others from entering particular spaces.

A design history of hi-vis

The history of hi-vis begins with early experiments with artificial fluorescent pigments in the 19th century, and the development of Day-Glo pigments from the 1930s. Fluorescence was used in World War II, for example in illuminating runways and marking dugouts, and the post-war period saw a commercial explosion of uses, particularly in the United States.

One of the first examples of high-visibility fluorescent workwear was in 1964 in Glasgow, when British Railways introduced an optional orange vest for track workers.

There was some resistance by the Glaswegian workers to its introduction, with fears it was “over-conspicuous” or might make workers appear less “brave”. By the 1970s there was begrudging acceptance from British Rail workers.

Australia was slightly slower in uptake. There’s further scope for research as to why, but heat and the unpleasant synthetic materials used in early vests is a good place to start.

At Sydney’s Powerhouse you can see an early hi-vis uniform, a postal delivery vest from around 1975, made from plastic webbing. Back then, soft synthetic fibres were not widespread and natural fibres did not hold fluorescent pigments well.

Following state-based changes to Australia’s work health and safety legislation in the 1980s, there was a gradual increase in fluoro vests on worksites, although there remained an awkwardness to their use, as archival photos suggest.

During the 1990s, Australian politicians visiting worksites continued to wear suits, sometimes a hard hat, with the vests only worn by trades and labouring workers.

This changed by the early 2000s, when politicians started to lean into wearing hi-vis.

Between the mid-1980s and early 2000s there was a gradual growth in hi-vis use, before it exploded in the first decade of the 21st century. Hi-vis shifted from an undesirable, rare and sometimes embarrassing safety measure, toward an everyday mass-produced “consumable” and major cultural symbol of our time.

Our research indicates four main reasons for this shift.

First, changes to work health and safety legislation and regulations meant employers had to take more responsibility for workers’ safety. Hi-vis was a quick way to (appear to) address this.

Next, mass textile manufacturing became increasingly available, delivered through global supply chains, making hi-vis more affordable and accessible.

Improvements in the longevity of colour-fast fluorescent pigments worked hand in hand with the fourth factor: the growing availability of lightweight synthetic fabric suitable for Australian heat.

By this century, hi-vis workwear was no longer just limited to wear on the construction site. Workers were just as likely to wear it off the job, and the number of industries it was seen in exploded.

Wearing hi-vis beyond safety

There are obvious safety reasons for the use of hi-vis in industries with dangerous equipment, in emergency services, for cyclists, and for delivery workers.

But how do we explain the security guard outside a pharmacy chain store, the cleaner at a swimming centre, the entrepreneur promoting their scented bathroom products on Instagram?

All of them wear hi-vis for reasons other than safety, at times deploying it as a symbol of “work” or productivity.

As for the CFMEU, more research is needed, but it is likely hi-vis helps produce and project a genuine sense of group membership and solidarity – as it does for GWS supporters.

And while many voters may remain unconvinced by politicians’ hi-vis-clad performances of productivity and “everyday” accessibility, press secretaries nonetheless continue to engineer situations in which hi-vis is worn. This indicates the deep political power of hi-vis, even on the backs of those with soft hands.

Elizabeth Humphrys is an Associate at Centre for Future Work, The Australia Institute.

Jesse Adams Stein receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Bettina Frankham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The deep political power of fluro: how hi-vis became a symbol of working class masculinity – https://theconversation.com/the-deep-political-power-of-fluro-how-hi-vis-became-a-symbol-of-working-class-masculinity-238584

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nathan Cooper, Associate Professor of Law, University of Waikato

The recent proposal by Vanuatu, Fiji and Samoa to recognise ecocide as a crime against humanity is timely and could provide a global framework of accountability for environmental damage.

Ecocide is defined as acts of “unlawful or wanton” environmental destruction, committed in the knowledge of their likely severe, widespread or long-term effects.

Last week, the Pacific Island nations formally requested an amendment to the principal treaty of the International Criminal Court (ICC) to add ecocide alongside genocide, war crimes and aggression to the international community’s list of most serious crimes.

There is a long way to go before ecocide is recognised by the ICC, if it ever happens. Discussions of the proposal will likely take several years and much will depend on the level of support the proposal gains from the 124 countries party to the ICC.

But for Aotearoa New Zealand, this is a chance to champion a progressive legal response and show leadership in the region.

A priority for the Pacific

It is no surprise the ecocide proposal is being driven by several small island developing states, given they are exposed to some of the most severe consequences of climate change.

In the Pacific, it is vitally important to equip the region with the necessary tools to mitigate and adapt to grave ecological change. This includes legal tools. An offence of ecocide could be used to significant effect, particularly if given an international dimension.

Alleged offenders are unlikely to live in the Pacific Islands. Domestic climate litigation in Pacific nations would have little impact. This is why the proposal for ecocide to be made an international crime is so critical.

Implications for New Zealand

New Zealand is a founding member of the Rome Statute, which established the ICC. It continues to advocate for the importance of the court’s role as a last resort to try the most serious crimes against humanity.

Few states will want to publicly oppose a proposal aimed at countering the most serious acts of ecological damage at a time of growing awareness of the state of nature.

For New Zealand’s government, early and vocal support for acknowledging the crime of ecocide would line up with public attitudes. Nearly two thirds of New Zealanders support more ambitious emissions targets in response to climate change, while more than 80% consider improving water quality as important.

For Māori in particular, climate and environment have always been important. While climate change affects everyone, Māori are disproportionately affected and particularly vulnerable.

Supporting this initiative, brought by Pacific neighbours, would also further cement Aotearoa’s reputation and role as a regional leader.

Arguing ecocide in New Zealand courts

Since it became operational in 2002, the jurisdiction of the ICC is limited by the principle of complementarity. In other words, the ICC exists to complement national judicial systems, not to replace them.

This means the ICC can only proceed with an investigation or case where a state party is unable or unwilling to do so. Legislation exists in New Zealand to ensure genocide, crimes against humanity and water crimes can be dealt with in domestic criminal law, with the consent of the Attorney-General.

However, it is important to note that crimes listed in the Rome Statute are not automatically incorporated into domestic law. For instance, the crime of aggression is not currently included in New Zealand criminal law.

In time, ecocide could find its way into domestic legislation. This could offer a more appropriate legal response to acts causing severe environmental damage than those currently available, for example in the Resource Management Act or as currently under consideration in tort law.

A recognition of ecocide could open the possibility for more effective environmental protection through robust deterrent.

Creating a new offence to meet a new challenge

Should ecocide eventually be included as an international crime (and even a domestic one), it would doubtless raise many substantive and procedural legal questions.

For example, current ICC procedures include reparation for victims and allow them to participate in proceedings. For crimes with widespread environmental damage and potentially millions of victims, this may not be practical.

But such considerations should not stand in the way of an innovative and important new criminal offence.

The crime of genocide was adopted in 1948 as a result of the horrors of the second world war, and much work was necessary to define and delimit it. Faced with an array of existential threats from ecological crises, it is timely that an ecological crime has been proposed.

Aotearoa was the first country in the world to give a river the legal status of a person. It should now follow that we support this proposal to criminalise ecocide, for the sake of our own environment and that of our neighbours.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Pacific nations want ecocide to become a crime – here’s why NZ should support the proposal – https://theconversation.com/pacific-nations-want-ecocide-to-become-a-crime-heres-why-nz-should-support-the-proposal-238675

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Natalie Lister, Research Fellow, Paediatric Nutrition and Obesity/Pre-Diabetes Treatment, University of Sydney

Weight fluctuation and change in body composition with growth is a normal part of development. Apart from the first year of life, teenage years experience the most rapid increase in growth and development.

Your health-care provider will consider your child’s weight status as part of a holistic assessment considering age, sex, and stage of growth.

Not all children with high weight will have health consequences.

However, as children get older excess body fat may have health complications including sleep apnoea (where breathing stops and starts during sleep), bone or joint problems, liver disease, high blood pressure or cholesterol, or insulin resistance (pre-diabetes).

If you notice changes in your child or adolescent’s health – such as dark patches around the neck or under arms (which indicate insulin resistance), headaches, trouble sleeping or joint pain – speak with your GP.

What will your GP do?

Your GP can investigate if there is a health impact related to excess weight. They may check blood pressure, and do a blood test to check liver health, cholesterol levels and blood sugar levels.

High weight is often related to mental health issues such as depression, anxiety, or eating disorders. Your GP can help assess and manage these conditions.

A GP with experience in weight management can provide appropriate support and referrals to local support depending on your area. An accredited practising dietitian experienced in paediatric health, for example, can help develop healthy meal routines for the family.

Changes that involve the whole family

Initial treatments for weight-related health will depend on your child’s age. They usually involve a whole-of-family approach to improving health behaviours, such as:

• healthy dietary changes such as offering a variety of fruits and vegetables of different colours and types, and limiting sugary drinks and foods high in salt, fat and sugar

• limiting screen time (aiming for no more than two hours a day of non-education screen time for children aged five to 17)

• improving sleep habits (aiming for 9-11 hours a night for children aged six to 12, and 8-10 hours a night for teens)

• increasing physical activity (aiming for one hour of energetic play or vigorous activity a day).

Most children and adolescents will have improved physical and mental health and wellbeing after behaviour-changing interventions. This might include improved eating behaviours, fewer symptoms of depression, and better self-esteem and body image.

Options for adolescents

Sometimes weight loss may be recommended for adolescents with significant excess weight and associated complications.

As children get older, they will be included in the treatment decision making-process.

A range of prescriptive diets have been trialled with adolescents, including very low energy diets.

Our recent trial shows specific diets can stabilise weight and improve physical and mental health of adolescents. Our trial included 141 adolescents with obesity-associated complications and compared intermittent and continuous energy restriction.

We found improvements in weight, insulin resistance and liver function after one year for both groups. Symptoms of depression, eating disorders and binge eating reduced following four-weeks of a very low energy diet, followed by a transition to intermittent or continuous energy restriction, which was maintained for one year.

However, any prescribed diet should only be used under medical and dietary supervision.

New generation medications (such as Wegovy) are now available to adolescents with severe obesity to be used alongside behavioural therapy. These can help with weight loss and reduce risk of future health complications.

Bariatric surgery may be an option for older teens with significant health complications.

If you are thinking about using medications or having surgery, discuss the risks and benefits with your doctor.

Watch for signs of disordered eating

Children and adolescents with higher body weight may attempt to lose weight on their own. Unfortunately, most publicly available information is not tailored to the needs of growing children, can be unsustainable and may lead to disordered eating behaviours.

Social media is loaded with unhelpful weight loss, diet and exercise messages, and often promotes unattainable body image ideals. Talk to you children about what they see on social media to help them recognise which social media content is beneficial.

If you notice your child is losing weight quickly, hiding food or eating in secret, binge eating (eating a lot of food and feeling they cannot stop), vomiting after eating, overexercising to burn off calories or skipping regular meals to try and lose weight, discuss this with your doctor. These could be signs of an eating disorder.

How you can support your child

Parents are important role models for children and have a key role in supporting the whole family to live a healthy lifestyle.

Start healthy habits. Make healthy eating and enjoyable exercise part of daily life.

Avoid making negative comments about your own or your child’s body – and ask others to do the same. If you hear a negative comment about your child’s weight, try to re-frame this into a positive message. For example, “growing bodies are strong bodies”.

Be aware of bullying. Some children with a higher weight experience teasing or bullying related to their body size. This can occur from peers at school, teachers, parents and even health professionals. Ask your child if they are teased or bullied about their body and take appropriate action.

Finally, keep in mind that different treatments may work differently for different people. If you find a treatment approach is not working for your child or your family, return to your health care provider to discuss other options.

Children and families with weight concerns should be treated with respect and dignity at all times. If you don’t feel your health provider is doing so, consider changing.

Natalie Lister receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC).

Hiba Jebeile receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council.

– ref. I think my child’s weight is affecting their health. How can I best support them? – https://theconversation.com/i-think-my-childs-weight-is-affecting-their-health-how-can-i-best-support-them-234924

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Graham, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Sydney

Australia has long been one of the most expensive places in the world to buy a house. Now, it’s apparently also one of the costliest places to sell one.

Recent reporting in the Guardian has raised concerns about the market dominance of Australia’s two main real estate advertising websites, realestate.com.au and Domain.

Facing little competition, the largest – realestate.com.au – appears to have significantly increased its fees in recent years, while thwarting disruptive innovations from smaller competitors.

Why does that matter? Because when it comes to selling a house, Australia stands out globally. In most other countries, any advertising costs are tiny or bundled in with agent fees.

Here, along with only Sweden and New Zealand, home sellers pay their own advertising costs in addition to real estate agent fees and commissions.

This advertising can be expensive – up to several thousand dollars for a single property listing. But it also seems necessary, with a lack of alternative platforms offering comparable reach.

Setting aside the problems of monopolistic pricing behaviour, what are the economics of high and rising real estate advertising fees? Do home sellers get value for the money they spend on advertising? And what might be the impacts of these fees on the Australian housing market?

Is advertising on big platforms worth it?

First, it’s worth asking whether real estate advertising is actually effective and whether bigger platforms are better.

To explore these questions, a group of US-based economists studied the outcomes of advertising on a large platform favoured by real estate agents in the United States called the “multiple listing service”, compared with a smaller for-sale-by-owner platform.

The study found no differences in eventual home sales prices between the two platforms. But properties on the multiple listing service were more likely to sell and spent less time on the market.

However, the size of the advertising platform didn’t explain these benefits. Rather, the different platforms appealed to buyers and sellers with varying patience levels. This variation in willingness to “wait-and-see” affected the time it took to sell.

Translated to the Australian context, that raises questions about the value for money of advertising on a larger platform – which here, unlike the US, attracts significant fees.

Housing markets are ‘search markets’

Next, we need to consider how high costs of advertising property might affect the housing market more broadly.

Housing markets fall into a category called “search markets” within economics. Sellers seek buyers, and buyers seek sellers offering up properties that meet their required criteria.

The economics of search markets have been extensively studied by the likes of Nobel laureates Peter Diamond, Dale Mortensen and Christopher Pissarides. Their insights highlight the key factors that determine search market outcomes.

Sellers consider the costs of listing an item for sale (such as advertising) and the time it takes to find a buyer. Buyers, on the other hand, consider their alternatives to buying (such as renting) and the time it might take to find a suitable seller.

The likelihood of a sale – and how long everything will take – depends on the number of potential buyers relative to sellers. The sales price is then negotiated after meetings between the two.

This gives us a framework to speculate about how Australia’s high – and increasing – costs of advertising real estate could be affecting the broader housing market on both sides of this equation.

Costs can affect both supply and demand

On the supply side, high fees reduce the net financial benefit of selling a home, which could discourage homeowners from listing their properties. All else being equal, this could lead to fewer properties on the market, shorter selling times, and higher prices for the properties that are listed.

But we can predict some effects on the demand side, too.

High fees also reduce the net benefit of buying a home, as current buyers expect to be sellers in the future. These costs are likely to be even more pronounced for property investors, who buy and sell property more frequently than homeowners.

Anticipation that selling costs will be high in the future could suppress the demand for housing, reducing prices and increasing the time it takes to sell a property.

Interestingly, recent research from the US suggests that these demand-side effects might outweigh the supply-side effects.

Economists studied the impact of a series of court decisions that forced the National Association of Realtors to reduce real estate agent fees. They found lower fees increase the lifetime benefits of homeownership, which leads to a significant increase in house prices.

Significantly, that suggests lowering the costs of selling property – including advertising – could increase property values.

Just one part of the housing story

High prices in any area of economic life are likely to rankle our sense of a fair deal. High fees for advertising real estate have an obvious immediate impact on a home seller’s wallet.

But the nuanced flow-on effects to the broader housing market are harder to tease out. They are also likely to vary across different property markets within Australia. Commentators and policy makers should think carefully before leaping into action in this area.

In the meantime, advertising fees are one more thing to keep an eye on as Australian housing costs continue to rise.

James Graham has received research funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute and is a member of Sydney YIMBY.

– ref. Advertising a house is ridiculously expensive in Australia – could that be affecting the property market? – https://theconversation.com/advertising-a-house-is-ridiculously-expensive-in-australia-could-that-be-affecting-the-property-market-239111

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Leigh Carriage, Senior Lecturer in Music, Southern Cross University

If you immediately start singing along to ABC, Blame It On The Boogie, I’ll Be There, Can You Feel It or Who’s Loving You you are a Jackson 5 fan – and for good reason.

Tito Jackson (Toriano Jackson) was born in Gary, Indianna, on October 15 1953, the third of nine siblings. Like many of his siblings he was a strong vocalist: a tenor, with great “ears” for harmony singing who also began playing the guitar from an early age.

Jackson, who has died at 70, was a lifelong singer and guitarist, releasing his last solo album Under Your Spell in 2021. But he will best be remembered for his time with the Jackson 5.

Along with his brothers Jermaine, Jackie, Marlon and Michael, Tito commenced his music and entertainment career in 1964 with one of the biggest selling acts of all time.

Funky soul-pop

The Jackson 5 signed to Motown Records in 1968. They were the first group with the label to have four consecutive number one hits on the Billboard 100 with The Love You Save, I Want You Back, ABC and I’ll Be There.

At the time, the prosperity and success were unparalleled for a funky soul-pop sounding vocal group. They were sophisticated amid the bubble-gum pop around them, and between 1969 and 1970 they recorded and released four albums.

The Jacksons produced a group vocal sound that was joyous, catchy, rhythmically tight, tonally rich and beautifully blended together.

Their music required each sibling to have a strong inner musicianship with good time feel, interpretive skills, interval recognition, pitch maintenance, a healthy vocal technique – and the ability to do all of this while dancing or playing instruments.

Their famous Motown hit single, I Want You Back, was released in 1969 and featured the Motown trademark use of heavy syncopation in the groove coupled with Michael’s dynamic and powerful voice transitioning seemingly effortlessly from chest range (thicker louder sound and tone) to head voice (thinner lighter sound) supported and framed by the tight vocal arrangement that features “call and response” backing vocal parts by the rest of Jackson brothers.

There is a particular quality that comes from sibling groups like the Jackson 5. As choral director John Cooksey notes:

Siblings who sing together a lot develop a very special sound that comes simply from singing together. Their vibratos are often similar and the blend of voices sets up overtones and creates harmonies that are intriguing. It is a pleasing and warm sound.

My favourite Jackson 5 song, Get it Together, is a lesser known song with modest success reaching number 28 on the charts. Michael and Jermaine share the lead vocal parts on this up tempo funky song. Often Session players were hired for the backing band tracks, and interestingly, Tito is miming on the video playing the funky guitar riff.

A lifelong career

In 1984, Michael and Marlon left the band, by then playing as The Jacksons after leaving Motown Records. Their final album, as a quartet with Jackie, Tito, Jermaine and youngest brother Randy, was 2300 Jackson Street in 1989.

Many years after the Jackson 5 disbanded, Tito continued to write songs, record and tour with brothers Marlon and Jackie as The Jacksons.

In 2003 Tito commenced his own solo projects predominantly within the Blues genre. Tito Time was released in 2016, and what would be his last album, Under Your Spell, was released in 2021.

In many ways this album typifies the combination of all aspects of Tito’s very broad musician history, with a collection of contemporary rhythm and blues, blues/rock type songs such as Rock Me Baby, with guest artist George Benson. Tito’s voice is soulful, warm and sometimes expressively gritty.

Other tracks on the album features a who’s who of guest artists Stevie Wonder, Joe Bonamassa, Claudette King, Eddie Levert, Marlon Jackson, Kenny Neal and Bobby Rush.

The uplifting lead single, Love One Another, has a lyric that talks of unity, of reconciling and of hope. The music video accompanying this track features celebrities and Jackson family members, opening with his mother Katherine, then the likes of Smokey Robinson, Janet Jackson, La Toya Jackson, Jermaine Jackson, and ending with comedian and actor Chris Tucker.

Through his work with The Jackson 5 and as a solo artist, Tito’s songs and brilliant performances have left an enduring and inspiring legacy.

Leigh Carriage does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Tito Jackson was a lifelong musician, best remembered for his work with the Jackson 5 – https://theconversation.com/tito-jackson-was-a-lifelong-musician-best-remembered-for-his-work-with-the-jackson-5-239186

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rodney Tiffen, Emeritus Professor, Department of Government and International Relations, University of Sydney

A unique court case is getting under way in Nevada this week. At stake is the future of the Murdoch empire. The case, which begins on September 17 local time, is scheduled to run (in secret) for two weeks, and sometime after that the Reno Nevada County Probate Commissioner will make what will probably be the biggest decision of their career.

The drama centres on a Murdoch family trust that was agreed on in 1999, when Rupert was divorcing Anna. Instead of seeking a larger share of his fortune, she insisted on the setting up of an irrevocable trust, which meant Rupert’s four existing children (Prudence, Elisabeth, Lachlan and James) would have one share each after he died. Anna’s priority was to secure the long-term futures of the four children and protect them against any future action by Rupert’s new wife, Wendi Deng. So, when Rupert later had two children with Wendi, they had equal access to the money, but no power inside the company.

Last November, Rupert initiated legal action to revoke this “irrevocable” trust, to give his chosen successor, Lachlan, full control. His justification was that the viability of the company rests on its right-wing appeal and that the other three might seek to change this.

Read more:
Rupert Murdoch’s succession plan reveals a lot about his empire – and most of it is not pretty

The move shocked the other three siblings, and reportedly has led to some sharp conflicts. Elisabeth, who had always sought to be the peacemaker in the family, was reported to be particularly angry. There was already irreconcilable conflict between Lachlan and James, who according to several reports have not spoken to each other for five years. It was less clear where Prudence and Elisabeth stood. Now, according to a report in Murdoch’s Wall St Journal, they have moved closer to James.

The trust can only be changed if all beneficiaries would benefit. With the other three children contesting the move, Rupert must convince the judge that these three adults of healthy mind and body are not the best judges of what is in their interests, that their wishes should be overridden. Both sides have expensive lawyers, but common sense suggests Rupert faces an uphill battle, and is unlikely to win.

Political differences?

Rupert’s preference for Lachlan to be his unchallenged successor is usually attributed to politics. However, Rupert and Lachlan are very different political animals. Rupert was always keen to be a participant, an insider pulling strings, privy to inside information. Lachlan does not seem to share this wish to be a player.

Similarly, their public political styles are in sharp contrast. For example, on wind power, Rupert tweeted “Uneconomic, bird-killing windmills. Mad.” On the eve of George W. Bush’s invasion of Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 2003, Murdoch said “We can’t back down now, where you hand the whole of the Middle East to Saddam”. This was more extreme (and more nonsensical) than anything coming from the White House itself. Rupert’s style is sharp, provocative and usually intolerant of any other view.

In contrast, when Lachlan talks about politics, his ambition seems to be to make it as anodyne as possible. In an interview with Paul Kelly to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the Australian newspaper, he commented on US politics:

I think both sides of American politics have been divisive. A lot of public commentary has been around Trump being a divisive figure. But I think the Democrats are being as divisive, and that Biden has been a divisive president. We need to find leadership that can bring the country back together.

At first blush, this sounds reasonable, a “both-sides-ist” balance, but it takes a very determined imagination to say that Biden and Trump have been equally divisive. Moreover, coming from the chief executive of the company that owns Fox News, one of the strongest drivers of divisiveness in US politics, it is the height of hypocrisy.

It is often assumed that Fox News is following Rupert’s political views, but in several important ways they differ. For example, in 2013, encouraging Australia to have more migrants, he said “I’m a big one for encouraging migration. Just look at America.” (Actually he got it wrong – Australia then had 38% of people born overseas, the US just 13%). So Rupert has always been pro-immigration, whereas Trump and Fox News are deeply against.

Privately, Rupert is said to favour tighter gun-control laws, a view that never gets strongly put on Fox. On foreign policy, he is much closer to the George W. Bush neo-cons than to the Trump isolationists, and is adamantly opposed to the pro-Putin leanings on Ukraine. He thought Trump did a bad job on the COVID pandemic and deplored the anti-vax views that Fox News often aired.

After the 2020 election, Rupert believed Trump had clearly lost, and that his promotion of the January 6 violence against the Capitol was shameful. However, when Fox News ratings fell, Murdoch and the other top management panicked and instead locked themselves into Trump’s false narrative of a rigged election. Their ratings improved, although it proved a very expensive strategy when Fox News was forced to pay Dominion Voting Systems $US787.5 million (A$1.17 billion), the biggest defamation payout in US history, for the falsehoods they had broadcast.

So it is not quite that Rupert shares the Fox News worldview, but rather that he sees going along with it as a commercial necessity. Rather than being too moderate, it seems Rupert and Lachlan fear the others may want professional integrity to intrude on their commercial expedience.

Starboard Value and dual voting shares

Although it lacks the Succession-style drama of a family conflict, an equally important challenge awaits the Murdochs later in the year. The hedge fund Starboard Value publicly released a letter sent to all shareholders on September 9 proposing to eliminate News Corp’s dual-class share structure. This was set up by Murdoch decades ago when he needed to raise capital but did not want to dilute his control, and so engineered an issue of non-voting shares. Today the Murdochs have around 40% of the votes with just 14% of the total shares.

The letter says News Corp suffers from worst-in-class corporate governance and that the company is significantly undervalued and burdened by its share structure. It contends that

while we can understand how some could see a benefit to a visionary founder retaining outsized control for a limited duration of time, that potential understanding vanishes as super-voting power and the associated protections transition to others.

It went on that current arrangements provide outsized influence to the Murdoch family. It is “clearly not the appropriate governance structure for a public company, and we believe it has exacerbated News Corp’s valuation discount relative to its inherent value.”

Last year Starboard Value recommended that News should seek to spin off its property division (including the REA group in Australia), the company’s best-performing part, and this could provide a $7 billion windfall. Other investment analysts have also said the underperforming parts of News Corp are dragging down its market value.

Evidence of shareholder wariness came in 2022 when Rupert and Lachlan aimed to re-merge their two companies, News Corp and 21st Century Fox, but were forced to abandon the idea. There have been several earlier attempts to change the dual voting share structure. One year, 90% of unaffiliated shareholders voted that way, but fell just short of an overall majority, thanks to the Murdoch gerrymander.

This time, however, the Murdochs are opposed by the head of Starboard Value, Jeffrey Smith, who according to Crikey was once described as “the most feared man in corporate America”. Both Fox (up 24% over the past year) and News (up 30%) have done well recently in the share market. However, as evidence of the problems facing the company, last year it slashed 5% of its global workforce, roughly 1,250 jobs.

What happens next?

Here are four predictions for how this may play out.

1. Rupert will lose the court case. His move is likely to be counterproductive in many ways. It has escalated conflicts in the family, and united the other three siblings against Lachlan. It will be used by shareholder groups as evidence of family dysfunction, and strengthen their case to abolish dual voting rights.

2. Either before Rupert dies or within a year or two afterwards, a majority of shareholders will abolish the dual voting structure. The family will then be reduced to about one-seventh of the total vote, and its power correspondingly reduced.

3. After Rupert’s demise, the Murdoch assets will be further fragmented and reduced. The real estate businesses will be floated, and several loss-makers, such as the New York Post, will be closed.

4. Within five years of Rupert’s death – depending what parts of the companies are invested in, sold off or closed – neither News Corp nor 21st Century Fox will have a chief executive named Murdoch.

Rodney Tiffen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Rupert Murdoch’s real-life succession drama is underway in a Nevada courtroom. What might happen next? – https://theconversation.com/rupert-murdochs-real-life-succession-drama-is-underway-in-a-nevada-courtroom-what-might-happen-next-239091

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rob Nicholls, Senior Research Associate in Media and Communications, University of Sydney

The Global Media Internet Concentration Project examines the concentration of the communications and media in countries around the world.

The latest data for Australia have recently been released, and they show just how big Google is here.

Alphabet (Google’s parent company) had 2022 revenue in Australia of A$7.9 billion.

That revenue is only exceeded by Telstra, and is bigger than Optus and NBN Co. It’s also bigger than the revenues of News Corporation and Nine Entertainment combined.

The network media economy includes telecoms and internet infrastructure, digital and traditional publishing and internet-based companies. The 2022 revenue of this economy in Australia was $69 billion. The revenue of the top four telecommunications operators accounted for half of that.

The major internet advertising players were, unsurprisingly, Google and Meta. Together, they had revenue in excess of $10 billion.

While this sector is clearly a major part of the Australian economy, there are significant problems yet to be solved. Namely, how do we fund public-interest journalism in a sector that’s concentrated to a few major players? The report has some insights to help guide the path forward.

Highly concentrated market

Australia has traditionally had the most concentrated media sectors in the OECD. The report shows this hasn’t changed.

News Corporation, the commercial television networks and Southern Cross Media are the major players across television, newspapers and radio. Concentration in commercial radio increased significantly over the 2019–22 period.

Australia’s media concentration is among the highest in the Western world.

One new feature is the importance of classified advertising players in their own right.

For example, Seek and the Car Group are in the top 20 businesses by revenue. An examination of the News Corp revenue shows that REA (realestate.com), which is majority-owned by News Corp, provides about 25% of News Corp’s total revenue. This figure is 70% of the company’s newspaper revenue.

Nine Media owns 60% of Domain. While in 2023–24 Domain represents less than 10% of Nine’s revenue, it is a more significant (about 25%) contributor to free cash flow.

The opaque world of streaming

One of the more interesting sectors is online video services. The availability of revenue information for this sector is patchy as many of its largest operators are either global media players (Netflix, Disney+) or part of complex digital businesses (Amazon Prime, Apple TV).

It’s a sector where there is evidence of both disruption of traditional media oligopolies in broadcast TV and the entry of traditional media players into streaming. Nine Entertainment has Stan, News Corporation has Binge and Kayo, and Network 10 has Paramount+ in partnership with Paramount.

One challenge facing the federal government is whether online video services can be obligated to meet Australian content requirements, as commercial broadcasters currently are.

What about news?

An issue that flows from this report is the prospect of an alternative to the News Media Bargaining Code.

Under the code, tech companies and news organisations could negotiate to pay for content and have it included on digital platforms. Until now, it hasn’t been used by Meta because it had commercial arrangements directly with media companies, but those have since expired and won’t be renewed.

Read more:
Facebook won’t keep paying Australian media outlets for their content. Are we about to get another news ban?

The government and media alike are still grappling with how to fund public interest journalism. There’s also appetite to adequately regulate huge tech companies to better reflect their size in the Australian market.

One option is a digital services tax. However, this would be problematic in the context of Australia’s obligations under the World Trade Organisation and the free trade agreement with the United States.

Digital services taxes have also formed part of OECD discussions on “Pillar 1” of a Global Tax Agreement. France and the United Kingdom have revised their positions on such taxes and have committed to withdraw them.

How about a levy?

An alternative approach would be a public interest journalism levy in a similar form to the Telecommunications Infrastructure Levy.

Under the Telecommunications Act, service providers are either carriage service providers or content service providers. Both forms are class licensed.

Broadly, carriage service providers that operate specified infrastructure must hold a carrier licence. Holders of a carrier licence with revenue greater than $25 million per year must contribute to the levy.

A simple mechanism would be to introduce a new form of content licence. There would then be a requirement that content service providers which operate specified infrastructure must hold a content licence.

Holders of a content licence with revenue greater than $25 million per year would be required to contribute to the public interest journalism levy.

The contribution to the levy could be made proportionate to the returns received through digital advertising.

On current figures, Alphabet and Meta would contribute about 70% of the levy. Handily, the scheme would have the benefit of not requiring the federal government to designate particular companies (like it does under the bargaining code).

The levy also wouldn’t be contingent on the value of news to the overall platform. If Meta decides they don’t care for platforming news, for example, the levy wouldn’t change.

The rate of the levy would depend on the level of funding required. However, using the revenues in the report, it would be lower than 2% of content service revenue. This would make for a funding pool about the same size as it currently available to news organisation under the bargaining code.

Read more:
How well is the federal government regulating social media in Australia?

Rob Nicholls also works for the Association for Data-driven Marketing. He receives funding from the Australian Research Council. The Conversation receives funding from Google negotiated under the Australian Government’s News Media Bargaining Code. It has also previously received grant funding from Google.

Cameron McTernan receives funding from the Canadian Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council

Scott Fitzgerald receives funding from the Canadian Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. Scott is affiliated with the National Tertiary Education Union and is the union’s Curtin University Branch President.

Terry Flew receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Google is worth more in Australia than major news outlets. Here’s how it could better fund journalism – https://theconversation.com/google-is-worth-more-in-australia-than-major-news-outlets-heres-how-it-could-better-fund-journalism-239093