Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah G. Phillips, Professor of Global Conflict and Development at The University of Sydney; Non-Resident Fellow at the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, University of Sydney

As the Houthi militant group in Yemen ramps up its attacks on vessels in the Red Sea – ostensibly in response to what it calls Israel’s “genocidal crimes” in Gaza – the US and UK have responded with multiple military strikes in the last week. The US has also re-listed the group as a global terrorist organisation.

The hope is these strikes will pressure the Iran-aligned Houthis to back down. It won’t, however. Short of a complete halt to Israel’s war in Gaza and a 180-degree shift in Western support for Israel’s approach, there is little that will dissuade the Houthis to change course in the foreseeable future.

There are three main reasons for this, none of which are principally about Iran’s regional strategy.

The group has already survived years of airstrikes

The first, and most obvious, reason is the Houthi movement, whose political wing is known as Ansar Allah, has already withstood years of airstrikes in its war with a Saudi-led and Western-backed coalition from 2015–2022.

Prior to this, the Houthis fought six wars against the central Yemeni government from 2004–2010. Guerrilla warfare is not new to them, and harassing ships off their coast does not require sophisticated weapons.

The blockade that accompanied much of the recent war (which is currently in a shaky truce) also helped the Houthis to finetune their weapon smuggling networks from Iran, as well as their own domestic weapon production.

As a result, airstrikes alone are unlikely to deliver a knockout blow to their military capacity and will almost certainly increase their appetite for a fight.

That is because they can – for the first time – more strongly frame their actions in the context of fighting against the US and Israel, per their slogan: “God is Great, death to America, death to Israel, a curse upon the Jews, victory to Islam.”

Read more:
Why Yemen’s Houthis are getting involved in the Israel-Hamas war and how it could disrupt global shipping

With dissent rising, the Houthis have found ‘quasi-legitimacy’

The second reason they are unlikely to be deterred is more important, but less understood, because it is about Yemen’s domestic politics.

The Houthis currently control much of Yemen, including the capital Sana’a, which accounts for around 70% of the population. The people in these regions have been subjected to years of acute and structural violence by the Houthis. This includes:

• the forced disappearances of political opponents and religious minorities

• the extrajudicial killings of journalists and executions of civilians, including minors

• the recruitment of child soldiers

• withholding public sector salaries since 2016

• the laying of landmines in populated areas, sniper attacks on civilians and the use of siege warfare

• the systematic extortion of businesses and implementation of a caste-based taxation system

• the implementation of male guardianship rules for women

• and the weaponisation of food and water, including the diversion of food aid for private enrichment.

It is important to note the Saudi-led coalition and internationally recognised Yemeni government have also been accused of committing war crimes and grave human rights violations in Yemen, including the ruthless bombardment of civilians and civilian infrastructure.

At least 150,000 people are estimated to have died violently in the war that began in 2015, though the challenges with collecting such data are considerable. This also does not include the many more thousands that have died from preventable starvation and disease.

The behaviour of the Houthis in power has made them deeply unpopular. Dissent is dangerous due to the sophisticated system of repression and neighbourhood surveillance the Houthis have imposed in the areas they control. But Yemenis began taking to the street in protest last year anyway in Ibb and the besieged city of Ta’izz.

Then on September 26, just before Hamas’ assault on southern Israel and Israel’s bombardment of Gaza, Yemenis defied the authorities in large numbers.

In protests in the capital city of Sana’a, they celebrated the anniversary of the 1962 revolution that ousted the country’s leader, the Zaydi Imam, Mohammed al-Badr – and with him, the kinship-based autocracy that many Yemenis claim the Houthis seek to reinstate.

Seeing this (rightly) as a demonstration against them, the Houthis were shaken. Amnesty International reported they responded with an “alarming wave of arrests” and “a draconian show of force.”

Against a background of rising dissent at home, the Houthis’ actions and Western retaliation have given the group the gift of “quasi-legitimacy,” according to Yemeni analysts. The US-led strikes also give credence to the Houthis’ demands that critics “shut their mouths.”

And just as important, the US strikes can boost the Houthis’ military recruitment efforts. And this could help them attempt to seize the government-held oil wells in Marib again, which the group needs to become economically sustainable.

Anger is rising against the West across the region

The third reason the Houthis are unlikely to be deterred by airstrikes or a terrorist designation is that their actions articulate the wider region’s fury at Israel’s war in Gaza, which has so far claimed the lives of 25,000 Palestinians, and the decades of Western support for Israel’s policies in occupied Gaza and the West Bank.

They have also tapped into profound grievances about the West’s policies more generally and its record of reinforcing unpopular regimes in the face of popular action for change. This includes the selling of weapons and bestowing of political legitimacy to authoritarian regimes in exchange for what the West considers “stability” in the world order.

Read more:
The Houthis: four things you will want to know about the Yemeni militia targeted by UK and US military strikes

Yemenis are, however, keenly aware that the Houthis’ rise and expansion was enabled by this same external push for stability, which came at the expense of Yemenis’ ability to determine local solutions to local problems.

By centring the defence of Palestinians in their actions, the Houthis have found a way to discredit their domestic opponents – something that has largely eluded them for 20 years. This will make them even harder to dislodge from power and will likely consign ordinary Yemenis to further violence at their hands.

Sarah G. Phillips receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is a Non-Resident Fellow with the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies (Yemen).

– ref. Why US strikes will only embolden the Houthis, not stop their attacks on ships in the Red Sea – https://theconversation.com/why-us-strikes-will-only-embolden-the-houthis-not-stop-their-attacks-on-ships-in-the-red-sea-221588

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Carol Oliver, Professor in Science Communication and Astrobiology, UNSW Sydney

When NASA attempted to return to the Moon for the first time in 50 years on January 8, more was at risk than just US$108 million worth of development and equipment.

The agency earned the ire of the Native American Navajo people, who made a bid to stop the launch because of an unusual inclusion in the payload.

The Peregrine lander (which completed its controlled re-entry into the atmosphere late last week) was carrying human ashes, including those of famed science fiction author Arthur C. Clarke. A commercial partnership also allowed paying customers to send their mementos to the Moon.

As space exploration becomes increasingly privatised and commercial, you can now send your favourite stuff to the Moon. But what does that mean, both ethically and legally?

Read more:
Privatised Moon landings: the two US missions set to open a new era of commercial lunar exploration

The Moon open for business

US company Astrobotic owns the Peregrine, which is the size of a small car. It ran into fatal fuel issues shortly after being launched on Vulcan Centaur rocket from Cape Canaveral.

On board are “vanity canisters”. The idea arose in a partnership between the firm and global freight company DHL.

Under the deal, anyone can send two and a half centimetre by five centimetre package to the lunar surface for less than US$500. Apart from size, there were a few other limitations on what each package could contain.

Astrobotic, founded in 2007 and based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, is one of several US companies providing commercial lunar payload services to NASA to deliver science and technology to the Moon. Peregrine was also carrying scientific instruments from six countries and many science teams.

Perhaps surprisingly, sending ashes into space is not new aboard suborbital and Earth orbital flights.

Two American companies make a business of the service starting at just a few thousand dollars – Celestis and Elysium Space. The practice is embraced by many, including astronauts who have been in space.

A Moon burial (yes, you can buy one) costs more – around US$13,000.

Commercial payloads launched from US soil require approval, but that approval process only covers safety, national security, and foreign policy.

Peregrine, if it had made it, would have marked the first commercial lunar burial. It’s uncharted territory as other worlds become within reach, although it is not the first time it has come up.

Read more:
Earth isn’t the only planet with seasons, but they can look wildly different on other worlds

NASA pledged to consult in the future after an outcry from the Navajo when, 20 years ago, it carried some of Eugene Shoemaker’s ashes to the Moon aboard the Lunar Prospector probe. Like many other indigenous cultures, the Navajo Nation considers the Moon sacred and opposes using it as a memorial site.

However, NASA said in a press briefing it had no control over what was on Peregrine, highlighting the gaps between commercial enterprise and international space law.

A legal minefield

Another question concerns the rules in individual nations on where and how human ashes can be located, handled, and transported and how those could extend to space. For example, in Germany, ashes must be buried in a cemetery.

With space privatisation accelerating, the ethical and legal maze deepens.

The Outer Space Treaty (OST) declares space the “province of all mankind” while banning national appropriation.

It fails, however, to address what private companies and individuals can do.

The recent Artemis Accords, signed by 32 nations, expand protection to lunar sites of historical significance. But these protections only apply to governments, not commercial missions.

And no one owns the Moon to grant burial rights, or any other world or celestial body.

The treaty requires states to authorise and supervise activities in space. It requires “due regard” for the interests of other states.

Many countries have space law that includes grounds for refusing payload items not in their national interest, for example Indonesia and New Zealand.

Nations apparently without such consideration, including Australia and the US, may need to consider expanding this template with the emergence of the commercial world in a traditionally governmental arena.

Where to draw a line?

Earth’s orbit is already clogged with defunct satellites and, further out, items like Elon Musk’s Tesla.

We have already spread space probes across other worlds, including the Moon, Mars, Titan, and Venus, but much may be treasure rather than junk, according to space archaeologist Alice Gorman.

For example, the Apollo astronauts left official mementos, such as a plaque marking the first human footsteps on the lunar surface. Some have left personal ones, too, like Apollo 16’s Charles Duke, who left a framed family photo.

However, sending a clipping of your hair or the ashes of your pet dog to the Moon may not qualify as culturally and historically important.

Read more:
From the Moon’s south pole to an ice-covered ocean world, several exciting space missions are slated for launch in 2024

The problem, therefore, is where we want to place a line in the sand as we step out into the cosmos onto the shorelines of other worlds.

We cannot turn back the clock on private space enterprise, nor should we.

But this failed mission with ashes and vanity payloads exemplifies the unexplored questions in the legal and ethical infrastructure to support commercial activities.

It is worth pausing for thought on future commercialisation such as mining asteroids and the eventual colonisation of space.

Carol Oliver does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. You can pay to have your ashes buried on the moon. Just because you can doesn’t mean you should – https://theconversation.com/you-can-pay-to-have-your-ashes-buried-on-the-moon-just-because-you-can-doesnt-mean-you-should-220664

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sara Webb, Lecturer, Centre for Astrophysics and Supercomputing, Swinburne University of Technology

Some of us remember August 24 2006 like it was yesterday. It was the day Pluto got booted from the exclusive “planets club”.

I (Sara) was 11 years old, and my entire class began lunch break by passionately chanting “Pluto is a planet” in protest of the information we’d just received. It was a touching display. At the time, 11-year-old me was outraged – even somewhat inconsolable. Now, a much older me wholeheartedly accepts: Pluto is not a planet.

Similar to Sara, I (Rebecca) vividly remember Pluto’s re-designation to dwarf status. For me, it wasn’t so much that the celestial body had been reclassified. That is science, after all, and things change with new knowledge. Rather, what got to me was how the astronomy community handled the PR.

Even popular astronomers known for their public persona stumbled through mostly unapologetic explanations. It was a missed opportunity. What was poorly communicated as a demotion was actually the discovery of new exciting members of our Solar System, of which Pluto was the first.

The good news is astronomers have better media support now, and there’s a lot of amazing science to catch up on. Let’s go over what you might have missed.

A throwback to a shocking demotion

Pluto’s fate was almost certainly sealed the day Eris was discovered in 2005. Like Pluto, Eris orbits in the outskirts of our Solar System. Although it has a smaller radius than Pluto, it has more mass.

Astronomers concluded that discovering objects such as Pluto and Eris would only become more common as our telescopes became more powerful. They were right. Today there are five known dwarf planets in the Solar System.

The conditions for what classifies a “planet” as opposed to a “dwarf planet” were set by the International Astronomical Union. To cut a long story short, Pluto wasn’t being targeted back in 2006. It just didn’t meet all three criteria for a fully fledged planet:

1. it must orbit a star (in our Solar System this would be the Sun)
2. it must be big enough that gravity has forced it into a spherical shape
3. it must be big enough that its own gravity has cleared away any other objects of a similar size near its orbit.

The third criterion was Pluto’s downfall. It hasn’t cleared its neighbouring region of other objects.

So is our Solar System fated to have just eight planets? Not necessarily. There may be another one waiting to be found.

Read more:
I’ve always wondered: why are the stars, planets and moons round, when comets and asteroids aren’t?

Is there a Planet Nine out there?

With the discovery of new and distant dwarf planets, astronomers eventually realised the dwarf planets’ motions around the Sun didn’t quite add up.

We can use complicated simulations in supercomputers to model how gravitational interactions would play out in a complex environment such as our Solar System.

In 2016, California Institute of Technology astronomers Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown concluded – after modelling the dwarf planets and their observed paths – that mathematically there ought be a ninth planet out there.

Their modelling determined this planet would have to be about ten times the mass of Earth, and located some 90 billion kilometres away from the Sun (about 15 times farther then Pluto). It’s a pretty bold claim, and some remain sceptical.

One might assume it’s easy to determine whether such a planet exists. Just point a telescope towards where you think it is and look, right? If we can see galaxies billions of light years away, shouldn’t we be able to spot a ninth planet in our own Solar System?

Well, the issue lies in how (not) bright this theoretical planet would be. Best estimates suggest it sits at the depth limit of Earth’s largest telescopes. In other words, it could be 600 times fainter than Pluto.

The other issue is we don’t know exactly where to look. Our Solar System is really big, and it would take a significant amount of time to cover the entire sky region in which Planet Nine might be hiding. To further complicate things, there’s only a small window each year during which conditions are just right for this search.

That isn’t stopping us from looking, though. In 2021, a team using the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (a millimetre-wave radio telescope) published the results from their search for a ninth planet’s movement in the outskirts of the Solar System.

While they weren’t able to confirm its existence, they provided ten candidates for further follow-up. We may only be a few years from knowing what lurks in the outskirts of our planetary neighbourhood.

Finding exoplanets

Even though we have telescopes that can reveal galaxies from the universe’s earliest years, we still can’t easily directly image planets outside of our Solar System, also called exoplanets.

The reason can be found in fundamental physics. Planets emit very dim red wavelengths of light, so we can only see them clearly when they’re reflecting the light of their star. The farther away a planet is from its star, the harder it is to see.

Astronomers knew they’d have to find other ways to look for planets in foreign star systems. Before Pluto was reclassified they had already detected the first exoplanet, 51 Pegasi B, using a radial velocity method.

This gas giant world is large enough, and close enough to its star, that the gravitational tug of war between the two can be detected all the way from Earth. However, this method of discovery is tedious and challenging from Earth’s surface.

So astronomers came up with another way to find exoplanets: the transit method. When Mercury or Venus pass in front of the Sun, they block a small amount of the Sun’s light. With powerful telescopes, we can look for this phenomenon in distant star systems as well.

We do this via the Kepler space telescope and the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). Both have observed tens of thousands of stars and discovered thousands of new planets – dozens of which are about the same size as Earth.

But these observatories can only tell us a planet’s size and distance from its star. They can’t tell us if a planet might be hosting life. For that we’d need the James Webb Space Telescope.

Looking for life

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has just wrapped up its first year and a half of science. Among its many achievements is the detection of molecules in the atmospheres of exoplanets, a feat made possible by the transit method.

One of these exoplanets, WASP-17, is also known as a “hot Jupiter”. It seems to have been plucked from a page in a sci-fi novel, with evidence for quartz nanocrystals in its clouds.

Read more:
10 times this year the Webb telescope blew us away with new images of our stunning universe

Meanwhile, the super-Earth K2-18b (a Kepler find) shows signs of methane and carbon dioxide. But while such discoveries are amazing, the magic ingredient necessary for life still eludes us: water vapour.

The field of planetary studies is evolving and 2024 looks promising. Maybe JWST will finally produce signs of water vapour in an exoplanet atmosphere. Who knows, we might even have a ninth planet surprise us all, filling the void left by Pluto.

Stay tuned for exciting science to come.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The Solar System used to have nine planets. Maybe it still does? Here’s your catch-up on space today – https://theconversation.com/the-solar-system-used-to-have-nine-planets-maybe-it-still-does-heres-your-catch-up-on-space-today-219396

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Patti Shih, Senior Lecturer, Australian Centre for Health Engagement, Evidence and Values, University of Wollongong

Many of us have done countless rapid antigen tests (RATs) over the course of the pandemic. Testing ourselves at home has become second nature.

But there’s also a growing worldwide market in medical tests sold online directly to the public. These are “direct-to-consumer” tests, and you can access them without seeing a doctor.

While this might sound convenient, the benefits to most consumers are questionable, as we discovered in a recent study.

Read more:
Five warning signs of overdiagnosis

What are direct-to-consumer tests?

Let’s start with what they’re not. We’re not talking about patients who are diagnosed with a condition, and use tests to monitor themselves (for example, finger-prick testing to monitor blood sugar levels for people with diabetes).

We’re also not talking about home testing kits used for population screening, such as RATs for COVID, or the “poo tests” sent to people aged 50 and over for bowel cancer screening.

Direct-to-consumer tests are products marketed to anyone who is willing to pay, without going through their GP. They can include hormone profiling tests, tests for thyroid disease and food sensitivity tests, among many others.

Some direct-to-consumer tests allow you to complete the test at home, while self-collected lab tests give you the equipment to collect a sample, which you then send to a lab. You can now also buy pathology requests for a lab directly from a company without seeing a doctor.

What we did in our study

We searched (via Google) for direct-to-consumer products advertised for sale online in Australia between June and December 2021. We then assessed whether each test was likely to provide benefits to those who use them based on scientific literature published about the tests, and any recommendations either for or against their use from professional medical organisations.

We identified 103 types of tests and 484 individual products ranging in price from A$12.99 to A$1,947.

We concluded only 11% of these tests were likely to benefit most consumers. These included tests for STIs, where social stigma can sometimes discourage people from testing at a clinic.

A further 31% could possibly benefit a person, if they were at higher risk. For example, if a person had symptoms of thyroid disease, a test may benefit them. But the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners does not recommend testing for thyroid disease in people without symptoms because evidence showing benefits of identifying and treating people with early thyroid disease is lacking.

Read more:
Cervical, breast, heart, bowel: here’s what women should be getting screened regularly

Some 42% were commercial “health checks” such as hormone and nutritional status tests. Although these are legitimate tests – they may be ordered by a doctor in certain circumstances, or be used in research – they have limited usefulness for consumers.

A test of your hormone or vitamin levels at a particular time can’t do much to help you improve your health, especially because test results change depending on the time of day, month or season you test.

Most worryingly, 17% of the tests were outright “quackery” that wouldn’t be recommended by any mainstream health practitioner. For example, hair analysis for assessing food allergies is unproven and can lead to misdiagnosis and ineffective treatments.

More than half of the tests we looked at didn’t state they offered a pre- or post-test consultation.

Products available may change outside the time frame of our study, and direct-to-consumer tests not promoted or directly purchasable online, such as those offered in pharmacies or by commercial health clinics, were not included.

But in Australia, ours is the first and only study we know of mapping the scale and variety of direct-to-consumer tests sold online.

Research from other countries has similarly found a lack of evidence to support the majority of direct-to-consumer tests.

4 questions to ask before you buy a test online

Many direct-to-consumer tests offer limited benefits, and could even lead to harms. Here are four questions you should ask yourself if you’re considering buying a medical test online.

1. If I do this test, could I end up with extra medical appointments or treatments I don’t need?

Doing a test yourself might seem harmless (it’s just information, after all), but unnecessary tests often find issues that would never have caused you problems.

For example, someone taking a diabetes test may find moderately high blood sugar levels see them labelled as “pre-diabetic”. However, this diagnosis has been controversial, regarded by many as making patients out of healthy people, a large number of whom won’t go on to develop diabetes.

2. Would my GP recommend this test?

If you have worrying symptoms or risk factors, your GP can recommend the best tests for you. Tests your GP orders are more likely to be covered by Medicare, so will cost you a lot less than a direct-to-consumer test.

3. Is this a good quality test?

A good quality home self-testing kit should indicate high sensitivity (the proportion of true cases that will be accurately detected) and high specificity (the proportion of people who don’t have the disease who will be accurately ruled out). These figures should ideally be in the high 90s, and clearly printed on the product packaging.

For tests analysed in a lab, check if the lab is accredited by the National Association of Testing Authorities. Avoid tests sent to overseas labs, where Australian regulators can’t control the quality, or the protection of your sample or personal health information.

4. Do I really need this test?

There are lots of reasons to want information from a test, like peace of mind, or just curiosity. But unless you have clear symptoms and risk factors, you’re probably testing yourself unnecessarily and wasting your money.

Direct-to-consumer tests might seem like a good idea, but in most cases, you’d be better off letting sleeping dogs lie if you feel well, or going to your GP if you have concerns.

Patti Shih receives funding from NHMRC. She is affiliated with Wiser Healthcare, an NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence for reducing medical overuse and increasing the sustainability and equity of healthcare.

Fiona Stanaway receives funding from the MRFF.

Katy Bell receives funding from NHMRC and MRFF. She is affiliated with Wiser Healthcare, an NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence for reducing medical overuse and increasing the sustainability and equity of healthcare.

Stacy Carter receives funding from organisations including NHMRC, ARC, MRFF and NBCF. She is affiliated with Wiser Healthcare, an NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence for reducing medical overuse and increasing the sustainability and equity of healthcare.

– ref. You can now order all kinds of medical tests online. Our research shows this is (mostly) a bad idea – https://theconversation.com/you-can-now-order-all-kinds-of-medical-tests-online-our-research-shows-this-is-mostly-a-bad-idea-219805

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Flannery, Honorary fellow, The University of Melbourne

The global effort to keep climate change to safe levels – ideally within 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures – is moving far too slowly. And even if we stopped emitting CO² today, the long-term impacts of the gas already in the air would continue for decades. For these reasons, we will soon have to focus not only on halting but on reversing global warming.

We can do that in two ways. The first is by “drawdown” – strengthening natural processes on Earth that withdraw CO² from the atmosphere. The second is through vast experiments with the climate known as geo-engineering, some of which sound like science fiction, and could be extremely dangerous if ever tried.

The dangers of some forms of geo-engineering

Geo-engineering proposals to arrest climate change range from the seemingly sensible – painting our roofs and roads white – to the highly speculative: solar radiation modification, or putting mirrors in space to reflect some of the Sun’s heat away from Earth. Probably the most commonly proposed form of geo-engineering involves putting sulfur into the stratosphere to dim the power of the sun.

The natural 1991 eruption of the Pinatubo volcano in the Philippines showed the effects of sulfur in action. The eruption measurably cooled the Earth’s surface for almost two years.

But we don’t have to wait for an erupting volcano: all we need do is add some sulphur to the emissions of the world’s airline fleet, and release it once planes are in the stratosphere. The sulphur layer, which would also reflect some of the Sun’s heat back to space, would be a relatively inexpensive global cooling mechanism, instantaneous in its effect and implementable right now.

Yet this approach does nothing to remove CO² from the atmosphere, or to reduce
the rising acidity of the oceans. It’s like a Band-Aid over a festering sore. And, beyond its cooling effect, its impact on the climate system as a whole is unknown: no one to my knowledge has modelled the effects of using the jet fleet in this way.

No international treaty exists to regulate such experiments. In April 2022, the US
start-up company, Make Sunsets, released weather balloons designed to reach the stratosphere, carrying a few grams of sulphur particles. There was no public scrutiny or scientific monitoring of the work. The company is already trying to sell “cooling credits” for future flights that could carry larger volumes of sulphur.

And what if climate change brings mass famine and civil disobedience to China? It is already seeding clouds to make rain on a massive scale. China might think it is doing the right thing by putting sulfur into the stratosphere. But that decision might lead to war with other countries. What if this form of geoengineering affected the monsoon in India and caused famine? We just don’t know what the climatic and political impacts would be.

Read more:
From laggard to leader? Why Australia must phase out fossil fuel exports, starting now

Drawdown’s potential to store carbon

Drawdown, by contrast, involves withdrawing CO² from the atmosphere and storing it in other planetary organs, such as rocks, oceans or plants. Drawdown is much longer term than geoengineering, and most initiatives are only in the research and development stage. The most advanced and practical, by far, is forest protection and reafforestation.

Today humans emit about 51 billion tonnes of CO² a year. Protecting and regenerating forests draws down 2 billion tonnes a year. Other approaches, such as direct air capture of CO², draw down much smaller volumes.

So forest protection and reafforestation is our best bet for getting us closer to limiting warming to 1.5°C. A recent paper in the Nature journal argues we could draw down as much as 226 gigatonnes by allowing existing forests in areas where few humans live to recover to maturity, and by regrowing forests in areas where they have been removed or fragmented.

Read more:
Australian homes can be made climate-ready, reducing bills and emissions – a new report shows how

We should not ignore other drawdown pathways, however. Seaweed is a promising option for drawing down a billion tonnes or so of CO² by 2050. But we need a lot more scientific research to understand how to do that, and what its wider impacts might
be. Today only one commercial kelp farm exists – Kelp Blue, off the coast of Namibia, where four hectares of kelp are not only storing carbon but are used to make biodegradable food packaging and crop stimulants.

Silicate rocks, which are common in many places, including Victoria’s Western
District, also offer great hope. Once the rocks are crushed, a kilogram of a mineral they contain, olivine, will sequester 1.5 kilograms of CO² from the atmosphere within a few weeks of being spread on a farm field or put onto a beach.

The crushing speeds up a natural sequestering process of thousands of years. Field trials conducted in Brazil and other countries show using crushed rocks on crops can bring another benefit – significant increases in the yields of corn, cocoa and many other crops.

The problem is that the way we quarry and transport rocks today creates a lot of fossil fuel emissions. Once a farm is more than a few hundred kilometres from the quarry most of the benefit is gone. So until we can decarbonise transport and industrial energy, the benefit of silicate rocks will be minimal.

A process known as “direct air capture” sucks CO² out of the air and either puts it deep into rock strata or uses it for greenhouses or as the basis of concrete, plastic and other products that can sequester carbon long term. Nineteen plants using this technology are already operating around the world, including in Switzerland, the US and Iceland. But again, a lot of industrial capacity and a clean energy to run the plants are needed to get the value.

Read more:
Green growth or degrowth: what is the right way to tackle climate change?

What the Albanese government should do

For these reasons, the Albanese government should focus its drawdown efforts on forest protection and regrowth. This could be a theme of the UN climate conference Australia is bidding to co-host with Pacific nations in 2026. Our temperate forests contain more carbon per hectare than almost anywhere on Earth. Stopping old-growth logging would be a magnificent contribution to arresting climate change.

The government should also back research and development on seaweed and silicate rocks so that the country’s huge resources can be responsibly deployed in future. Finally, Australia must push urgently for a global treaty to restrain sulphur geoengineering.

Today governments are busy just trying to reduce emissions and haven’t looked closely at drawdown and geoengineering. But things are moving fast, and it’s time to start.

Read more:
Australia’s new dawn: becoming a green superpower with a big role in cutting global emissions

Tim Flannery is Ambassador for RegenAqua, which uses seaweed and river grass to clean up wastewater before it flows out to sea and on to the Great Barrier Reef. He consults for the not-for-profit environmental charity, Odonata. He is Chief Councillor and Founding Member of the Climate Council, Governor at WWF-Australia, and sits on the board of the Kelp Forest Foundation, a philanthropic entity associated with Kelp Blue.

– ref. It is time to draw down carbon dioxide but shut down moves to play God with the climate – https://theconversation.com/it-is-time-to-draw-down-carbon-dioxide-but-shut-down-moves-to-play-god-with-the-climate-220422

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Percy Allan, Professor, Institute for Public Policy and Governance, University of Technology Sydney

In January a year ago, two-thirds of the leading economists surveyed by the World Economic Forum forecast a global recession for 2023.

We didn’t get one. This year at the forum they are talking about a soft landing in 2024, notwithstanding financial conditions the US Federal Reserve says have been the tightest since the 2008 global financial crisis.

There are reasons to think that this time, for this year, they are right.

Global inflation has been falling (especially for goods, but soon for services as labour markets weaken). This means interest rates are likely to have peaked. While short-term cash rates will remain high until inflation is clearly heading back to target bands, longer-term bond rates should turn down as economies slow.

4 scenarios for the rest of the 2020s

But what about the rest of the decade?

Few economists are prepared to venture forecasts beyond 2024. Having gotten 2023 very wrong a mere year ago, that’s understandable.

But it is still worth considering each of the likely scenarios for the rest of this decade, because our prosperity and equity will depend on how the exit from the COVID pandemic plays out.

As I see it, there are four competing storylines: reflation, stagnation, stagflation and rejuvenation. I’ll outline the case for each, and then the one I’ve reluctantly come to believe is the most likely.

Scenario 1: reflation

Portfolio managers Alex Stiles and Steve Becker of Goldman Sachs developed the concept of “secular reflation” back in 2017.

It is characterised by high investment and low savings, and as a result, high growth and inflation.

Strategist Gerard Minack sees a surge of investment in Australia and elsewhere driven by a new focus on resilience in place of efficiency.

This would mean onshoring (making goods at home), friendshoring (obtaining goods from politically aligned nations) and higher inventories to insure against shortages.

As well, governments would spend more on defence, climate mitigation and public infrastructure at the same time as the private sector spends more on capital equipment to cope with tight labour markets.

Minack says it should all work to reverse what’s been a long-term trend from the 1970s right through to the 2008 global financial crisis – declining investment as a share of gross domestic product in developed economies.

Scenario 2: stagnation

The contrary view is that we will get a return of the “secular stagnation” we had before COVID – it’s a mix of high savings, low investment, low growth and low inflation.

Olivier Blanchard, a former International Monetary Fund chief economist, and Lance Roberts, chief strategist for US investment adviser Real Investment Advice, are among those expecting this sluggish outcome, for several reasons.

One reason is a set of ageing populations, which are likely to become more risk-averse, and so more likely to save.

Another is that private investment is likely to be crowded out by bigger government investment and increased government regulation and higher taxes and industry protection as part of a de-risking of supply lines.

As well, governments themselves are likely to be less keen on GDP growth, being weighed down by debt and preferring to focus on national security at the expense of dynamism.

Central banks might try to help by resuming quantitative easing (“printing money” by buying government bonds) in order to suppress interest rates and make government borrowing affordable.

But the conservatism of ageing populations means low rates are more likely to encourage asset speculation than productive investment.

Technological progress is unlikely to turbo-charge growth any more than the internet and the smartphone did.

Inflation will be restrained because wages will continue to grow slowly.

Former US treasury secretary Larry Summers was the first to describe the period before COVID as one of “secular stagnation” marked by a glut of savings and a dearth of investment. But in late 2022 he told the American Economic Association he did not expect a return to secular stagnation.

Summers now sees inflation rather than deflation.

Scenario 3: stagflation

The Summers view is that after an economic slowdown in 2024, which will temporarily tame inflation, stagflation will emerge with low savings, low investment, low growth and high inflation.

The World Bank puts forward this thesis in its June 2023 Global Economic Prospects Report, as does Colin Twiggs, editor of the Patient Investor.

Economic growth would be subdued for the same reasons as in the stagnation scenario, but it would be coupled with high inflation as the world deglobalises and decouples from “cheap China” and finds it needs to spend increasing amounts shifting from polluting fossil fuels to renewable energy.

Inflation is also likely to be driven by increasing worker shortages as baby boomers retire, voters turn against high immigration and employment regulations are tightened to give workers a better work-life balance.

As in the stagnation scenario, central banks will turn to quantitative easing to help governments fund bigger deficits and debt, but it will be inflationary.

Scenario 4: rejuvenation

The best of all worlds – the Goldilocks outcome – is rejuvenation, in which high savings and high investment produce robust growth and low inflation.

Micro-economic reforms in the fields of taxation, labour markets and regulations would boost productivity and enable both real wages and profits to climb while also generating enough tax revenue to meet social goals.

The renewables transition would cut the cost of energy, and artificial intelligence would supercharge knowledge work in the same way as automation overhauled manual work. Higher interest rates would keep inflation in check.

Politically, Washington and Beijing would reach a détente whereby they focused on economic co-operation rather than military conflict.

The focus of leaders would return to striving for economic efficiency through the use of global markets rather than aiming for self-sufficiency.

Reluctantly, the one I am picking is….

Which scenario is most likely to emerge in advanced economies post-2024?

I am afraid I think it is the second scenario, stagnation. It seems likely to me that the supply disruptions and economic stimulus of the pandemic interrupted rather than ended the low-inflation stagnant growth we had before COVID.

Continued low investment and low productivity growth will retard economic growth while re-globalisation (resuming cheap imports from China as well as alternative locations) and high immigration will contain inflation.

Official interest rates might be in the 2% to 4% range rather than the 0% to 2% we became used to before COVID because central banks will be less inclined to fund government deficits by buying bonds.

This would be a gloomy outcome because it would favour speculation over productive investment and set the scene for stagnant wages, which would in turn help build inequality and polarised politics. I hope I’m proved wrong.

Percy Allan chairs The Reform Club which is a non-partisan public policy forum hosted by the ASX (Australian Securities Commission).

– ref. There are 4 economic scenarios for the rest of the decade: I’ve reluctantly picked one – https://theconversation.com/there-are-4-economic-scenarios-for-the-rest-of-the-decade-ive-reluctantly-picked-one-217519

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John L Hopkins, Associate professor, Swinburne University of Technology

Working from home introduced in response to the harsh pandemic lockdowns in 2020 was expected to be a short term arrangement with staff returning to the office as soon as restrictions were lifted.

Yet, almost four years later, most office workers are still following hybrid arrangements – splitting their week between home and office, with no plans to return full-time to the workplace anytime soon.

In what some employees consider an aggressive move by their bosses to get them back where they can be seen, some companies are now linking office attendance to pay, bonuses and even promotions.

It pays, for some, to return to the office

Linking office attendance with pay has taken off after Citibank workers in the UK were told last September their bonuses could be affected if they didn’t work a minimum of three days per week from the office.

In Australia Origin and Suncorp, have done the same thing, as has ANZ where staff are required to work at least half their hours – averaged over a calendar month – in the office.

If these conditions are not met, it may be taken into consideration in performance and remuneration reviews at the end of the next year.

“If you are one of our people who are yet to be spending more than half your time in the workplace, we need you to adjust your patterns unless you have a formal exception in place,” an internal email to ANZ staff said.

Read more:
What’s it worth to work from home? For some, it’s as much as one-third of their wage

In the US, Amazon has told corporate employees they may miss out on promotion if they ignore the company’s return-to-office mandate, which requires employees to be in the office at least three days a week.

A post on Amazon’s internal website viewed by CNBC said:

Managers own the promotion process, which means it is their responsibility to support your growth through regular conversations and stretch assignments, and to complete all the required inputs for a promotion

If your role is expected to work from the office 3+ days a week and you are not in compliance, your manager will be made aware and VP approval will be required.

Not everyone is happy

To say the reaction to these measures has been divisive is an understatement.
Up to now, some hybrid work arrangements may have been ill-defined, and employee expectations confusing.

The messaging offered here is clear, employees know what is expected of them in terms of office attendance, and the repercussions they may face if they don’t meet those expectations.

And it’s important to remember that these initiatives are only aimed at incentivising workers to attend the office for part of the week, typically 2-3 days out of 5, which still represents a significant flexibility gain compared to what these firms offered before the pandemic.

Is showing up the best measure of performance?

However, critics have raised concerns that linking attendance to pay could hurt high achievers who don’t meet their in-office quotas – will they miss out on bonuses or a promotion simply because they don’t show up to the office enough, regardless of how well they are doing their job otherwise?

Is office attendance really that important, compared to other performance and outcome metrics, and will employees feel they are being treated like school children?

There are also fears about the impact strict attendance requirements will have on diversity, with women, parents, and people with neurodiverse needs more likely to favour a higher proportion of remote working.

Read more:
Switching off from work has never been harder, or more necessary. Here’s how to do it

Additionally, monitoring and managing attendance creates additional work for managers, and could lead to regular awkward conversations about attendance expectations.

Measuring office attendance may not be as simple as it first sounds either.

If an employee is required to maintain an average of 50% office attendance and they are invited to visit a client interstate for a day, or travel overseas to present at a conference, do these count as “in office days” or “WFH” days? This needs to be established and communicated to staff in writing.

One-size doesn’t fit all

With hybrid work arrangements there is no one right or wrong strategy. Different companies will take different approaches, based on the specific needs of their particular organisation and staff, and only time will tell how successful their respective strategies prove to be.

What we can be certain of is the fact hybrid work will not be disappearing anytime soon, so the focus for 2024 needs to be how to make this arrangement as efficient as possible, rather than trying to turn the clock back to 2019.

Read more:
Working from home since COVID-19? Cabin fever could be the next challenge

John L Hopkins does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Is linking time in the office to career success the best way to get us back to work? – https://theconversation.com/is-linking-time-in-the-office-to-career-success-the-best-way-to-get-us-back-to-work-220845

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cherine Fahd, Associate Professor Visual Communication, University of Technology Sydney

Spitting image, dead ringer, chip off the old block. Doubles, twins and doppelgangers have a funny way of tricking us.

When I encountered Anne Zahalka’s photo portrait of Nicole Kidman at the Art Gallery of New South Wales, I assumed what I was looking at was a straightforward representation of the Hollywood actress.

Then I discovered that the portrait was, in fact, Kidman’s wax double at Madame Tussauds. By photographing a wax double, Zahalka reproduced a copy, intensifying the duplication of an already replicated image.

Beyond Zahalka’s portrait of Kidman, my encounter with Madame Tussauds had been nil. Truthfully, the global tourist attraction had never been on my bucket list, until now.

In October 2021, Madame Tussauds Dubai revealed a life-size wax figure of my brother Kristan Fahd, known for the past 16 years in the United Arab Emirates as radio entertainer Kris Fade.

My other brother

My brother hosts the UAE’s number-one morning radio program, The Kris Fade Show, on Virgin Radio. His breakfast show can be heard across Australia on Sunday mornings on KIIS FM. Last year, he also joined the cast of Netflix’s Dubai Bling. And if that’s not enough to keep him busy, he founded a Dubai-based healthy snack company, Fade Fit, in 2018. All this made him endearingly popular enough to attract his own wax figure.

With his family in Sydney, Kris shared photographs of his wax effigy online. We were excited by this public recognition of his contribution to culture in the UAE. In our family group chat we collectively celebrated this illustrious milestone.

But it wasn’t until I visited Madame Tussauds Dubai with him and my family in March 2022 that the strangeness of such an encounter set in.

Encountering Lady Gaga, Posh and Becks, Taylor Swift and Tom Cruise registered the typical expression of “Wow, aren’t they so lifelike!”

But encountering a sibling – a person I love, the brother whose face feels and looks like my face – is an altogether different experience.

At first, I watched as fans came and went, posing with his statue in a replica radio studio and feeling lucky because they happened to come on the day the real Kris Fade was there.

I watched my parents turn the corner and enter the room to encounter their son. It appeared like a slow-motion scene from a romantic movie, deaccelerated for my benefit, the artist daughter with the watchful eye.

My father spontaneously wept. It was as if my brother had been resurrected. My mother, also in tears, could not keep her hands off him. She stroked and touched and blessed him. When she tried to kiss his face with her Chanel red lips, my brother had to stop her: “Mum, you’re not allowed to touch me.”

“I love you,” she whispered to the statue.

Then, our London-based relatives approached and took photos with the two of him. I listened intently as they chatted and laughed, amazed by the realism of the statue and the fame that a Madame Tussauds wax figure gestures toward.

Then, it was my turn to approach. I didn’t touch. I got right up close and looked straight into his shining black eyes. It was these tiny details that moved me most. I took a photo with both my brothers and left.

Read more:
I’m a photographer who wanted to be more present in my life – so I put down the camera

Feeling love

I returned a year and a half after my first encounter for a private visit. I wanted to study the statue without my brother and family in tow.

It was quiet, and the statue was in a new setting. From an Arabian desert scene, he appeared to be welcoming visitors to Dubai.

I got to work studying the statue the way an artist does. I saw that every hair on his face and head appeared in the right place. His stubble appeared just like the one that scratches my face when we hug and kiss.

The big gothic punk rings on his fingers, so idiosyncratic, were exact. The open chest stance, the tattoos peering out from under the clothes, the muscle shirt – all his signature style. His long hair and man bun, the curl of his lip, the size of his nose, his diamond piercings and his affectionate posture perfectly resembled my brother.

Then I turned my attention to myself. What was I, his big sister, an artist, bringing to this encounter? I felt nothing in front of the other statues. In front of him, I felt love. I placed my hand on his hand and thanked him for the ease of our affection.

Seeing resemblances is easy. But it was at the level of feeling that I understood the most. This wax figure was displaced by sibling attachment. It was not a Madame Tussauds wax figure of a celebrity. It was my brother. Not a replica, but him. At the level of feeling, they were one and the same.

Kris and I discussed his wax double. I shared my personal experience, and he expressed a fascination with the unavoidable reversal of the Picture of Dorian Gray. In contrast to Dorian’s perpetual youth, my brother contemplates the mortal experience of growing older while witnessing the everlasting shine of his immortal self.

Read more:
Drawing data: I make art from the bodily experience of long-distance running

Kris Fade is the author’s brother.

– ref. I felt nothing at Madame Tussauds – until I found my brother’s statue, and felt love – https://theconversation.com/i-felt-nothing-at-madame-tussauds-until-i-found-my-brothers-statue-and-felt-love-218523

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emma Ramsay, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Nanyang Technological University, and Research Affiliate, School of Biological Sciences, Monash University

2023 was the hottest year on record. Humidity is rising too. Heat and humidity are a dangerous combination, threatening all aspects of our lives and livelihoods.

Climate change is pushing humid heat dangerously close to the upper limits of what people can survive. Parts of the world are on track for conditions beyond the limits of human tolerance.

Yet our new research shows poor weather station coverage across the tropics leads to underestimates of heat stress in cities. This means global climate change assessments probably overlook the local impacts on people.

Concentrated across tropical Asia and Africa, informal settlements, commonly known as “slums”, are on the front line of climate exposure. The shortfalls in climate monitoring leave these communities dangerously vulnerable to rising humid heat. With few options to adapt, millions could be forced to seek refuge away from the hottest parts of the tropics.

Read more:
Global warming now pushing heat into territory humans cannot tolerate

Why is heat such a threat in these places?

Rapid urbanisation that outpaces planned, formal development is driving the growth of informal settlements. Their residents usually lack infrastructure and services, such as electricity and water supply, that many city dwellers take for granted.

More than 1 billion people live in informal settlements. The United Nations expects this number to grow to 3 billion over the next 30 years. In countries such as Kenya or Bangladesh, nearly half the urban populations lives in informal settlements.

Most informal settlements are located in the tropics. Here it is hot and humid year-round, but their residents have few options to adapt to heat stress.

Most households in these settlements are on low incomes. Many residents must work outdoors for their livelihoods, which exposes them to heat and humidity.

On top of this, because informal settlements fall outside official systems and regulations, we often lack data about the threats they face.

Read more:
Urban growth, heat islands, humidity, climate change: the costs multiply in tropical cities

What’s missing from climate data?

Most of the world’s population lives more than 25km from a weather station. This means weather stations rarely capture the full range of temperature and humidity in cities, which are usually hotter than non-urban surrounds – the urban heat island effect. These gaps in monitoring are largest across the tropics where most informal settlements are located.

As individuals we experience heat on a local scale, which isn’t captured by sparse weather station networks or meteorological models. If your home is too hot, a weather report telling you otherwise offers little respite.

Our research compiled local climate monitoring data from informal settlements in seven tropical countries. We compared these data to temperature and humidity measurements at the nearest weather station.

We found weather stations severely underestimate the heat stress that people experience in their homes and local communities. This means global climate assessments and projections also likely underestimate local-scale impacts.

Although these data come from a relatively small number of studies, they highlight a major hurdle for climate adaptation. Without accurate heat stress data, how can we ensure the most vulnerable communities are not left behind?

Read more:
Why 40°C is bearable in a desert but lethal in the tropics

Even if they get a heat warning, options are limited

During a heatwave in Australia we are usually told to stay inside and drink lots of water. For residents of an informal settlement, this advice might actually increase their risk of health impacts.

Heat can be even worse indoors in informal housing with poor ventilation and insulation. Very few households have air conditioning (or could afford to run it if they did). Residents might not have access to safe drinking water, adding to the health risks of heat stress.

What’s more, advice and alerts are unlikely even to reach informal settlements. A 2023 World Meteorological Organisation report found only half of the world’s countries have early-warning systems.

These systems are activated if forecast heat is above certain trigger levels. Health advice and alerts to the public can be backed by extra public health measures. Regional climate centres currently issue broad-scale alerts, but forecasts and responses need to operate at smaller scales to be effective.

And, as we have shown, forecasts are based on weather station data that underestimate heat in informal settlements. This means early-warning systems could fail to activate even though residents of these settlements will experience dangerous heat stress.

Read more:
Climate explained: will the tropics eventually become uninhabitable?

What can be done to protect people?

Current climate monitoring efforts have left millions of vulnerable people at risk of heat stress. This has direct impacts on individual health and wellbeing, with broader knock-on effects for societies and national economies.

Meteorological institutes in developing countries need urgent support to strengthen climate monitoring and improve early-warning systems. The new head of the World Meteorological Organisation has promised to do just that. We need to ensure governments and agencies, such as development banks and NGOs, capitalise on this opportunity and include informal settlements in new monitoring networks.

Inequalities in resources and adaptive capacities must also be overcome. Community-based initiatives such as urban greening and improved housing show promise to reduce urban heat. Investing in these solutions must be a priority of adaptation efforts.

The alternative to adapting is to move. Climate-related migration is already happening due to sea-level rise and heat, including here in Australia.

People don’t leave their homes and uproot their lives without good reason. Finding solutions that help them adapt to climate change should be the priority.

Read more:
‘Climigration’: when communities must move because of climate change

Emma Ramsay received funding from the Australian Government Research Training Program and Monash University. This research was conducted as part of the Revitalising Informal Settlements and their Environments (RISE) program, funded by the Wellcome Trust, the New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the Asian Development Bank, the Government of Fiji, the City of Makassar and Monash University, and involves partnerships and in-kind contributions from the Cooperative Research Centre for Water Sensitive Cities, Fiji National University, Hasanuddin University, Southeast Water, Melbourne Water, Live and Learn Environmental Education, UN-Habitat, UNU-IIGH, WaterAid International and Oxfam

– ref. 1 billion people left dangerously exposed to heat stress by gaps in climate monitoring – https://theconversation.com/1-billion-people-left-dangerously-exposed-to-heat-stress-by-gaps-in-climate-monitoring-221313

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard de Grijs, Professor of Astrophysics, Macquarie University

Early on Saturday, January 20 2024, Japan hopes to become the fifth country to successfully land a probe on the Moon. To date, the United States, the Soviet Union, China and India have preceded the East Asian nation.

Launched in September 2023 by the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), the Japanese Smart Lander for Investigating Moon (SLIM) is set to touch down around 02:20am AEDT. Trialling a novel landing technique with pinpoint accuracy, it is poised to settle on a gently sloped crater rim – a first in lunar exploration.

JAXA celebrates the mission as a technology demonstrator. The agency’s main aim is to practice near-real-time visual precision landing. The newly developed landing technology would allow them to touch down anywhere they want, rather than only where the terrain is favourable.

Plans for a follow-up expedition, the Lunar Polar Exploration probe (LUPEX), are well advanced. That mission will be developed jointly with the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO).

The Moon is a busy target

In recent years, the Moon has become a key target for exploration missions. For instance, just last year we witnessed Russia’s attempted landing of its Luna 25 probe and the first successful ISRO Moon shot, Chandrayaan-3.

Meanwhile, the US aims to return humans to the Moon through their Artemis programme while also supporting commercial companies in their quest to reestablish a viable presence there.

Read more:
Scientists and space agencies are shooting for the Moon — 5 essential reads on modern lunar missions

NASA and its international partners aim to eventually place a crewed space station in lunar orbit, the Gateway Lunar Space Station.

Simultaneously, China continues its successful, carefully planned Chang’e project. The Asian powerhouse is working towards establishing its own International Lunar Research Station. That Chinese–Russian project is promoted as “open to all interested countries and international partners”.

‘Peaceful intentions’

To date, the leading spacefaring nations have gone to great lengths to publicly assure us that their intentions in space are peaceful. Yet, last year Yury Borisov of Russia’s space agency Roscosmos bluntly stated:

This is not just about the prestige of the country and the achievement of some geopolitical goals. This is about ensuring defensive capabilities and achieving technological sovereignty.

Borisov’s comments should not be read in isolation, however. US officials have made similar assertions. In July last year, the US assistant secretary of defense for space policy, John F. Plumb, was equally blunt:

Space is in our DNA for the military. It’s absolutely essential to our way of war.

Such official commentary is clearly anathema to the purported peaceful intentions expressed by officials elsewhere in their respective national hierarchies. Similarly, to safeguard its national interests and encouraged by President Xi Jinping himself, China has been fine-tuning its own military space strategy.

The Moon is a large target, which to date is only accessible to a small number of actors. Yet, ever since evidence of water was found near the Moon’s south pole, much effort has focused on finding ways to land safely in the Moon’s southern hemisphere.

With commercial actors and national interests thrown into the mix, we ought to consider the geopolitical implications of this new space race.

Who keeps the peace in space?

The 1967 Outer Space Treaty remains the defining legal document governing strategic conduct in space.
To date, its has been ratified by 114 countries and 22 other signatories, including all major spacefaring nations.

However, new technological developments and the increasing presence of private space companies have prompted some to suggest that the treaty has become outdated.

Therefore, the US has independently developed a new international agreement, which it says is focused on common principles, guidelines and best practices applicable to the safe exploration of the Moon and beyond: the Artemis Accords.

Thus far, 33 countries have signed the agreement, but neither Russia nor China have acceded. Given the prevailing political differences, there is currently no clear way forward to bring all parties to the same table.

Read more:
Outer space: Rwanda and Nigeria sign an accord for more responsible exploration – why this matters

Although the Moon remains uncrowded, sustained exploration, human occupation and commercial exploitation will increase the likelihood of encounters on the lunar surface (or in orbit) between competing parties, or even between nations engaged in major conflict on Earth.

While the Outer Space Treaty envisions peaceful use of the space environment, the proliferation of military hardware in low Earth orbit implies that any such adverse encounter might result in devastating consequences.

At present, there are few safeguards to prevent wholesale conflict escalating beyond our home planet. Diplomatic efforts have been largely lacklustre.

Despite urgent recommendations from across the political spectrum to practice caution and avoid escalation, the world continues on a path towards an increasingly volatile space environment.

Fortunately, in this highly complex environment cool heads have thus far prevailed in resolving potential conflicts in space. As a case in point, we should probably be encouraged by the sustained multilateral collaboration on the International Space Station, despite the parties’ radically opposite stances on Earth.

The author gratefully acknowledges constructive criticism on an earlier draft of this article by Dr. Fabio Favata.

Richard de Grijs does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Japan is about to land its first lunar probe. As more nations race to the Moon, how will we keep the peace? – https://theconversation.com/japan-is-about-to-land-its-first-lunar-probe-as-more-nations-race-to-the-moon-how-will-we-keep-the-peace-221223

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Greste, Professor of Journalism and Communications, Macquarie University

Israel has emerged as one of the world’s leading jailers of journalists, according to a newly released census compiled by the New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists.

Each year, the committee releases a snapshot of the number of journalists behind bars as of December 1. 2023 was the second highest on record with 320 in detention around the world.

In a small way, that is encouraging news. The figure is down from a high of 363 the previous year.

But a troublingly large number remain locked up, undermining press freedom and often, human rights.

Read more:
More than one journalist per day is dying in the Israel-Gaza conflict. This has to stop

China takes out unenviable top spot

At the top of the list sits China with 44 in detention, followed by Myanmar (43), Belarus (28), Russia (22), and Vietnam (19). Israel and Iran share sixth place with 17 each.

While the dip in numbers is positive, the statistics expose a few troubling trends.

As well as a straight count, the Committee to Protect Journalists examines the charges the journalists are facing. The advocacy group found that globally, almost two-thirds are behind bars on what they broadly describe as “anti-state charges” – things such as espionage, terrorism, false news and so on.

In other words, governments have come to regard journalism as some sort of existential threat that has to be dealt with using national security legislation.

In some cases, that may be justified. It is impossible to independently assess the legitimacy of each case, but it does point to the way governments increasingly regard information and the media as a part of the battlefield. That places journalists in the dangerous position of sometimes being unwitting combatants in often brutally violent struggles.

China’s top spot is hardly surprising. It has been there – or close to it – for some years. Censorship makes it extremely difficult to make an accurate assessment of the numbers behind bars, but since the crackdown on pro-democracy activists in 2021, journalists from Hong Kong have, for the first time, found themselves locked up. And almost half of China’s total are Uyghurs from Xinjiang, where Beijing has been accused of human rights abuses in its ongoing repression of the region’s mostly Muslim ethnic minorities.

The rest of the top four are also familiar, but the two biggest movements are unexpected.

Iran had been the 2022 gold medallist with 62 journalists imprisoned. In the latest census, it dropped to sixth place with just 17. And Israel, which previously had only one behind bars, has climbed to share that place.

That is positive news for Iranian journalists, but awkward for Israel, which repeatedly argues it is the only democracy in the Middle East and the only one that respects media freedom. It also routinely points to Iran for its long-running assault on critics of the regime.

The journalists Israel had detained were all from the occupied West Bank, all Palestinian, and all arrested after Hamas’s horrific attacks from Gaza on October 7. But we know very little about why they were detained. The journalists’ relatives told the committee that most are under what Israel describes as “administrative detention”.

Read more:
Gaza war: Israeli government has Haaretz newspaper in its sights as it tightens screws on media freedom

17 arrests in Israel in less than 2 months

The benign term “administrative detention” in fact means the journalists have been incarcerated indefinitely, without trial or charge.

It is possible that they were somehow planning attacks or involved with extremism (Israel uses administrative detention to stop people they accuse of planning to commit a future offence) but the evidence used to justify the detention is not disclosed. We don’t even know why they were arrested.

Israel’s place near the top of the Committee to Protect Journalists’ list exposes a difficult paradox. Media freedom is an intrinsic part of a free democracy. A vibrant, awkward and sometimes snarly media is a proven way to keep public debate alive and the political system healthy.

It is often uncomfortable, but you can’t have a strong democratic system without journalists freely and vigorously fulfilling their watchdog role. In fact, a good way to tell if a democracy is sliding is the extent of a government’s crackdown on the media.

This is not to suggest equivalence between Israel and Iran. Israel remains a democracy, and Israeli media is often savagely critical of its government in ways that would be unthinkable in Tehran.

But if Israel wants to restore confidence in its commitment to democratic norms, at the very least it will need to be transparent about the reasons for arresting 17 journalists in less than two months, and the evidence against them. And if there is no evidence they pose a genuine threat to Israeli security, they must be released immediately.

Read more:
At a time when journalism needs to be at its strongest, an open letter on the Israel/Hamas war has left the profession diminished

Peter Greste is Professor of Journalism at Macquarie University, and the Executive Director of the Alliance for Journalists’ Freedom. He was also a signatory of an open letter calling for balanced coverage in the Gaza/Israel conflict and in 2006, covered Gaza for the BBC.

– ref. Israel now ranks among the world’s leading jailers of journalists. We don’t know why they’re behind bars – https://theconversation.com/israel-now-ranks-among-the-worlds-leading-jailers-of-journalists-we-dont-know-why-theyre-behind-bars-221411

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrea Waling, ARC DECRA Senior Research Fellow in Sex & Sexuality, La Trobe University

The Australian government recently launched a new campaign, Beforeplay, to promote better sexual health among young people.

Beforeplay is focused on encouraging people aged 20 to 34 to seek frequent STI tests, and to use barrier methods (such as condoms and dental dams) to protect against the transmission of STIs.

The national campaign began on January 14 and will run for nine weeks, with content to appear on social media and online, on dating apps such as Tinder and Grindr, and around universities, bars and clubs.

The campaign material includes links to information and resources as well as three videos and several posters, carrying messages including “it’s the test part, before the best part” and “it’s checking your fun parts, before the fun starts”.

The campaign message is simple and direct. Getting tested, as well as using condoms and dental dams to prevent the spread of STIs, will create a more fun and safe sexual encounter. But does the campaign get everything right?

Read more:
Sex ed needs to talk about pleasure and fun. Safe sex depends on it and condom use rises

Beforeplay aims to combat increasing rates of STIs

A recent annual surveillance report on STIs in Australia found in 2022, young people made up the majority of chlamydia and syphilis diagnoses.

For chlamydia, 69% of diagnoses occurred among people between 15 and 29, with an almost even split between men and women.

For infectious syphilis, notification rates were highest among people aged 25 to 29 (58.1 cases per 100,000 people), 30 to 39 (55.7 per 100,000), and 20 to 24 (38.2 per 100,000). More than 80% of all syphilis infections were among men.

Although the report highlighted increasing rates of STIs (syphilis notifications, for example, have tripled over the past decade) testing rates were lower than usual. The authors suggested this may be an effect of the COVID pandemic, but highlights a need for more STI testing, particularly among young people.

Young people already know to get tested

The Beforeplay campaign appears to be premised on the idea that young people lack knowledge about adequate STI testing and don’t feel barrier methods are important.

Research, however, suggests this isn’t the case. A recent national survey of Australian high school students found 94% of those surveyed felt condom use was important. Some 75% of respondents said condoms were available during their most recent sexual experience, but less than 49% used them.

Similar results were seen with STI testing – more than 72% of participants believed young people should be tested for STIs. But less than 13% thought it was a common practice among their age group. And only 26% believed STI testing was easily accessible.

A 2023 study of young adults in Australia aged 15 to 29 also showed STI testing and condom use remains low among this group.

Read more:
Around half of 17-year-olds have had sex and they’re more responsible than you think

There could be a variety of reasons young people may not use condoms. For example, research has shown gendered norms in heterosexual couples mean women continue to carry the burden of contraceptive responsibility, including having to ask men to wear condoms. Men may refuse these requests or engage in stealthing, the removal of a condom during sex without consent.

Meanwhile, long-standing social taboos and shame surround young people engaging in sexual activity, which can make it difficult for them to access sexual health services for STI testing. This can be particularly significant for LGBTQA+ young people, those living in rural and remote areas, and young people from religious, cultural and ethnic backgrounds where sex outside marriage may be discouraged.

As access to sexual health clinics can be difficult, including links and resources for at-home screening kits where available could be effective in encouraging more people to test.

More clarity in the posters and videos as to how often the campaign is recommending testing – whether before every sexual encounter with a new partner, or just general frequent testing as good sexual health practice – would also be helpful.

A diverse campaign?

Beforeplay’s content depicts couples of different genders, orientations and ethnicities to promote inclusivity.

I would argue there is an undercurrent of queerphobia and discomfort with queer sex in the campaign videos, despite the attempts for inclusion.

The two videos featuring a heterosexual couple show more physical intimacy and engagement, such as kissing and bodies touching. The video featuring the queer couple, however, only shows them holding hands, with their bodies appearing further apart.

In contrast, queer sexual health campaigns designed by and for queer people, such as The Drama Downunder and Down an’ Dirty (note, this one is not suitable for work) promote sexual intimacy between queer partners through sexualised imagery and intimate representation.

Content will also be adapted and translated for multicultural and First Nations audiences. However, there are already sexual health campaigns designed by and for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities. YoungDeadlyFree and Take Blaktion are just two of these. They meet the needs of their audience through community consultation, and use of local language, humour, cultural references, and representation.

Read more:
Teaching young people about sex is too important to get wrong. Here are 5 videos that actually hit the mark

The focus on pleasure is a plus

Despite these criticisms, the focus on pleasure and having a good time is a strong positive for this campaign when young people still sometimes experience shame and stigma around sex.

We know historic campaigns around HIV/AIDs that were sex and pleasure-positive (as opposed to negative and fear-mongering) were much more effective in reducing the transmission of HIV among gay and bisexual men.

Advocating for STI testing and the use of appropriate protection while emphasising fun and enjoyment is a progressive step towards recognising and affirming young people’s sexual rights and agency.

Andrea Waling receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Commonwealth Department of Health.

– ref. Check your ‘fun parts’: what a new sexual health campaign for young Aussies gets right and wrong – https://theconversation.com/check-your-fun-parts-what-a-new-sexual-health-campaign-for-young-aussies-gets-right-and-wrong-221219

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Salman Shooshtarian, Senior Lecturer, School of Property, Construction and Project Management, RMIT University

As a new parent, I’ve had the joy of watching animated cartoons with my two-year-old son. His favourite show is Trash Truck, on Netflix, featuring a tight-knit ensemble of five characters: a trash truck, a young boy, a raccoon, a bear and a mouse. The show offers valuable life lessons, emphasising the importance of friendship, sharing, love for animals and respect for parents.

But there’s a problem. The way it portrays the collection of waste grabbed my attention. It’s simply a matter of gathering mixed waste from bins and depositing it in a landfill. There’s no sign of any process for sorting or recycling waste.

This left me pondering why a charming cartoon series with a global audience, capable of educating the future generation about waste recovery, lacks such relevant educational content.

I’m a researcher who has studied waste management for the past six years. I decided to analyse similar series such as The Stinky and Dirty Show (Amazon Prime), BabyBus (YouTube) and Frank the Garbage Truck (YouTube). A clear pattern emerged – all show waste simply being dumped.

Read more:
Building activity produces 18% of emissions and a shocking 40% of our landfill waste. We must move to a circular economy – here’s how

To make it clear, in one episode of BabyBus, a song goes:

[Garbage truck sings] Garbage truck yeah yeah, looking for garbage here and there […] I have a long arm yeah yeah, look what I can do. […] [Two paper coke cups sing] Big tummy, no no no, it is going to eat me, the trash can is shaking shaking, I don’t want to go […] [Garbage truck sings] Now off to the dump […] [Discarded apple sings] No I don’t want to go to the dump […] [Garbage truck sings] Dirty trash bye bye, smelly trash bye bye.

This episode dropped four years ago on YouTube. It has hit a whopping 109 million views. That shows how powerful these platforms are for reaching people.

Read more:
Households find low-waste living challenging. Here’s what needs to change

Why does waste education matter?

Many nations have hastily adopted various strategies and developed policies to tackle the ever-growing issue of waste. In particular, scientific literature informing these strategies and policies highlights education as an effective and sustainable solution.

The findings from our multiple research projects reinforce this fact. For instance, we found “poor culture and education” is one of the top three barriers to sustainably managing construction and demolition waste and treating it as a resource. In a later study, we identified education as a priority to enable development of markets for recycled construction waste materials. Most recently, we found “education, investigation and demonstration activities” are the main strategy for optimising use of recycled materials in the building and construction sector.

Read more:
Buildings used iron from sunken ships centuries ago. The use of recycled materials should be business as usual by now

Screen time can be learning time

The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals emphasise the crucial role of children in achieving these global objectives. Its 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development describes children as:

critical agents of change […] [who] will find in the new goals a platform to channel their infinite capacities for activism into the creation of a better world.

We have seen a big increase in waste education for children such as recycling programs at schools in recent years. But according to Bronfenbrenner’s ecological systems theory of human development, the primary environmental influence on children occurs within their homes. A large part of a child’s time is spent at home where they often have uninterrupted access to multimedia content.

Recent research indicates screen time for children has surged particularly during and after COVID-19. While this trend may not be ideal, we can harness it for shaping the mindset of the next generation. In particular, it’s an opportunity to promote environmental sustainability.

The United States’ National Association for the Education of Young Children suggests multimedia learning, when used appropriately, helps children understand complicated topics while also providing positive engagement and enjoyment.

Read more:
Forget old screen ‘time’ rules during coronavirus. Here’s what you should focus on instead

The power and responsibilities of streaming media

Online video streaming has transformed the media landscape and viewing habits worldwide. The swift expansion of internet usage, the ubiquity of mobile devices and the surging demand for online video content have driven this change.

The global video streaming market has grown remarkably over the past ten years. By 2022, estimated annual revenue from streaming TV and video hit US$154 billion.

Waste is everyone’s responsibility, as outlined in many waste management initiatives and activities around the world.

Read more:
We can’t keep putting apartment residents’ waste in the too hard basket

With a global total of 1.2 billion viewers, giant streaming media companies such as Netflix (247.2 million paid subscribers, Amazon Prime Video (200 million paid subscribers) and Disney+ (150 million paid subscribers have a key role to play in educating the next generation. In particular, their animated cartoon series can influence the next generation’s attitude and behaviour.

Given its impact on the young, the global entertainment industry needs to be held accountable to ensure it portrays current knowledge about how we manage pressing issues such as waste.

Salman Shooshtarian receives funding from the Australia Sustainable Built Environment National Research Centre.

– ref. Trash TV: streaming giants are failing to educate the young about waste recycling. Here’s why it matters – https://theconversation.com/trash-tv-streaming-giants-are-failing-to-educate-the-young-about-waste-recycling-heres-why-it-matters-219900

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Aviroop Gupta, PhD Candidate, Curtin University

Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first prime minister, famously opposed government interference in the rebuilding of the Somnath temple, a popular religious site for the Hindus in Gujarat, because he saw the project as a form of “Hindu revivalism”.

In line with his idea of a secular India, Nehru wanted complete separation of state and religion.

There are no such qualms for the current prime minister, Narendra Modi, head of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Images of him were beamed live across the country in 2020 performing Hindu rituals during the foundation stone-laying ceremony of a grand temple dedicated to Lord Ram, a revered Hindu deity.

The half-completed temple, which will be the largest in India and will be inaugurated on Monday, has been built on the site of the 16th century Babri mosque, that was reduced to rubble by a Hindu mob in 1992. Violent riots followed, killing more than 2,000 people, most of them minority Muslims.

After a prolonged legal battle, the Indian Supreme Court in 2019 awarded the land where the mosque once stood to Hindus for the building of a temple.

The inauguration of the temple comes at a pivotal time for the country, with elections due in a few months. It is likely to play a significant role in the upcoming polls, for three main reasons.

Drawing Hindus together across castes

First, the Ram Temple movement has allowed the BJP to unite large sections of the Hindu population behind a singular political and religious goal, irrespective of caste considerations. Prior to this, mainly upper castes identified with its ideology.

To expand its voter base, the party resorted to a strategy of “social engineering”. It went on a drive to recruit large numbers of leaders from lower castes (or as they are known in India, “scheduled castes” and “other backward classes”) in order to project an image as a party representing all Hindus that wants to better living conditions for all.

The strategy was successful. Having won just two seats out of 543 in India’s parliament in 1984, the BJP became the single largest party in parliament in 1996, the first national election after the mosque demolition.

Read more:
Why Hindu nationalists are cheering moves to build a temple, challenging a secular tradition

Last October, an opposition-ruled state (Bihar) released a caste census, despite much push-back from the BJP. The census revealed that 63% of the state’s population belong to the “other backward classes”.

This could be seen as damaging to the BJP as it shows the party hasn’t done enough to lift people out of poverty. There was always a demand for such surveys so that jobs could be reserved for the lower castes according to their actual share in population. The BJP has resisted them, however, fearing this would anger their upper caste supporters.

The opposition has promised similar nationwide surveys if it manages to defeat the BJP in the 2024 election. And it has committed to distributing resources in a more equitable way, if elected.

These developments have put the BJP’s mantra of Hindu unity on rather shaky ground. To ensure this doesn’t become a major election issue, BJP leaders will have to amplify the noise around the temple, demonstrating the unity of all Hindus irrespective of caste.

Sectarian tensions bring out voters

Second, sectarian tension has always helped the BJP electorally. Studies show that whenever there’s a riot in the year before an election, the party gains an increase of 0.8% in the share of the vote.

This is a substantial gain because in India’s first-past-the-post voting system, winning just 37% of the total votes in the 2019 parliamentary elections ensured an overwhelming majority of seats for Modi’s party.

Read more:
Why some Indians want to change the country’s name to ‘Bharat’

Of course, not all Hindus support the Ram Temple. But the BJP is well aware that the number of Hindu temple supporters is large enough to help the party win elections comfortably.

In a survey held after the 2022 election in the state of Uttar Pradesh, over two-thirds of the Hindu respondents who thought the temple was a “very important” election issue voted for the BJP.

This is arguably the single-most polarising issue in the country and some Hindu nationalists want to keep the pot boiling. They have already petitioned the courts with claims to two other historical mosques in Varanasi and Mathura. The Supreme Court also seems to be taking a favourable view of these claims.

Distraction from other big issues

And last but not least, a grand inauguration ceremony – and its continuous month-long coverage on pro-government mainstream TV channels – will distract voters from real issues and help the BJP control the electoral narrative.

There are plenty of other issues to be concerned with. India’s economic growth hasn’t necessarily led to more jobs, with about 42% of graduates under 25 unemployed.

Despite the fact that Modi promised to double the incomes of farmers by 2022, they are still struggling to keep up with ever-rising debts. More than 100,000 farmers committed suicide from 2014–22, a rate of more than 30 per day.

Human rights activists, journalists and student protesters are regularly charged with stringent anti-terrorism laws and thrown in prison. Amnesty International was forced to shut down after the government froze its accounts following the publication of critical reports of its human rights record.

Ethnic violence has wracked the northeastern state of Manipur since last May. An influential member of parliament who asked tough questions about industrialist Gautam Adani’s relationship with Modi was expelled from parliament in December. The government claimed she had accepted bribes to ask the questions; she denies this.

And institutions meant to safeguard India’s democracy are being systematically dismantled.

The government has also been accused by UN special rapporteurs of “collective punishment” of Muslims suspected of taking part in inter-communal violence or protests through the bulldozing of their properties, often disregarding standard procedures. One demolition was even telecast live with news anchors cheering from the sidelines.

In two states that have seen the worst of such bulldozer actions (Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh), the BJP was returned to power in state elections.

Modi’s government doesn’t want to lose any support from its Hindu base, so the temple inauguration will presumably bring much BJP chest-thumping, especially as the election draws closer.

Aviroop Gupta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why a controversial Hindu temple in India could prove pivotal to Narendra Modi’s party in upcoming elections – https://theconversation.com/why-a-controversial-hindu-temple-in-india-could-prove-pivotal-to-narendra-modis-party-in-upcoming-elections-219811

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa J. Hackett, Lecturer, University of New England

For many the wedding gown is the most expensive item of clothing they will ever own, and it has significant emotional and social value.

The recent case of a Queensland woman allegedly scamming brides out of their wedding dresses on the pretext of dry-cleaning no doubt bought distress to their owners and, given the average price of a wedding dress today (A$2,385), 70 cases of wedding dress theft could be lucrative.

The average cost of an Australian wedding is A$36,000. Despite many Australians forgoing a religious ceremony, declaring your love in front of friends and family remains an important social ritual – and the dress is often the most important consideration.

A brief history

The modern history of the wedding dress in Australia is closely linked to Queen Victoria. Her 1840 dress became the “quintessential wedding dress”.

Victoria’s white dress featured an eight-piece bodice with a wide, open neckline with short and puffed off-the-shoulder sleeves and a pointed waistline. The neckline and sleeves were trimmed with lace and the floor-length skirt was full, with forward-facing pleats.

Read more:
The wedding dress: from Queen Victoria to the heights of fashion

Prior to Victoria, the wearing of white signalled the bride was poor and without a dowry. In the 16th and 17th centuries brides would often wear pale green, symbolising fertility.

From the 19th century, white wedding dresses had been worn by wealthy and royal brides, but for royal brides the dresses were often completely covered in silver and gold threads. Victoria rejected the embellishment and did not wear the red ermine robe of state, wanting to be seen as a wife rather than queen.

Most 19th century brides wore a dress they could wear again and popular colours were russet, brown, grey or lilac.

As white gowns became increasingly popular they began to be seen as symbols of purity and innocence because of the religious association of these colours.

The association of white with innocence in the popular imagination affected the wedding gown decisions of women who were not marrying for the first time. Widows remarrying in the Victorian era didn’t wear white and didn’t wear a veil. They might wear pearl or lavender dresses trimmed with ostrich feathers.

Over the 20th century, white wedding dresses became increasingly popular. Brides were no longer wearing their “Sunday best”, and the tradition of buying a unique bridal gown became established. By the turn of the 21st century, historian Christyana Bambacas found wedding planning had become the reserve of the bride and the white gown had become the central artefact, positioning “the bride as star of this public ritual”.

Australian brides often have highly emotional connections to their wedding gowns. Research into discussions on online wedding forums found brides-to-be used phrases such as “my love for my dress grew” and being “in love with” their gowns. The gown represents the bride’s idealised self – even if the event is temporary.

The tradition of keeping the dress a well-kept secret stems from 18th century arranged marriages, when it was believed to be “unlucky” for the groom to see the brides, lest he pull out of the wedding. The anticipation of the reveal of Kate Middleton’s wedding dress, where even the name of the designers was kept secret, reflects this ritual.

Something old

Unlike couture or historical garments, wedding gowns are familiar. They are common to the human experience, and yet unique to each bride.

Wearing your mother’s or grandmother’s wedding gown is becoming increasingly popular. Princess Beatrice was married in a gown designed by Norman Hartnell for her grandmother, Queen Elizabeth II, in the 1960s.

With just a few adjustments, brides are able to update vintage gowns to give them a modern twist.

Two-thirds of Australian brides keep their dress, many in the hope daughters or granddaughters will wear it. This suggests that, despite the increasing number of people choosing to not get married, weddings remain an important cultural ritual.

Some women keep their dress to be buried in. Others donate their wedding dresses to be made into Angel gowns to bury stillborn babies, the dress taking on new meaning for grieving families.

The end of the big wedding

The average age of first marriage in Australia has risen from 23-years-old for men and 20-years-old for women in 1970 to around 30 today.

The current cost-of-living and housing crises has seen couples cut back on their wedding expenditure, with impacts particularly felt by wedding gown businesses at the luxury end of the market.

Regardless of rising divorce rates, and generational shift in attitudes to marriage (43% of 18-39 year olds believe it is an outdated institution), marriage is considered a one-off life event.

The wedding dress is an indulgence driven by social norms and emotions where the bride is often balancing tradition with individuality.

While films, fashion, bridal magazines and celebrity weddings continue to perpetuate the fantasy and emotion embedded in the wedding dress, the dress continues to be a poignant part of our social lives.

Of all the clothes we own, the wedding dress is the one most treasured, as a reminder of what it symbolised, its aspirations or as a family heirloom – making its loss even more distressing.

Read more:
What was the mantua? How a 17th-century gown transformed dressmaking and ushered in financial freedom for women

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. A Queensland woman allegedly stole 70 wedding dresses. Here’s why the white gown is worth much more than its price tag – https://theconversation.com/a-queensland-woman-allegedly-stole-70-wedding-dresses-heres-why-the-white-gown-is-worth-much-more-than-its-price-tag-220657

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Xiujian Peng, Senior Research Fellow, Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University

China’s population has shrunk for the second year in a row.

The National Bureau of Statistics reports just 9.02 million births in 2023 – only half as many as in 2017. Set alongside China’s 11.1 million deaths in 2023, up 500,000 on 2022, it means China’s population shrank 2.08 million in 2023 after falling 850,000 in 2022. That’s a loss of about 3 million in two years.

The two consecutive declines are the first since the great famine of 1959-1961, and the trend is accelerating.

Updated low-scenario projections from a research team at Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, one of the first to predict the 2022 turndown, have China’s population shrinking from its present 1.4 billion to just 525 million by 2100.

China’s working-age population is projected to fall to just 210 million by 2100 – a mere one-fifth of its peak in 2014.

Deaths climbing as births falling

The death rate is climbing as an inevitable result of the population ageing, and also an upsurge of COVID in the first few months of 2023.

The population is ageing mainly because the birth rate is falling.

China’s total fertility rate, the average number of births per woman, was fairly flat at about 1.66 between 1991 and 2017 under China’s one-child policy. But it then fell to 1.28 in 2020, to 1.08 in 2022 and is now around 1, which is way below the level of 2.1 generally thought necessary to sustain a population.

By way of comparison, Australia and the United States have fertility rates of 1.6. In 2023 South Korea has the world’s lowest rate, 0.72.

Births plummet despite three-child policy

China abandoned its one-child policy in 2016. In 2021 the country introduced a three-child policy, backed by tax and other incentives.

But births are continuing to fall. In part this is because of an established one-child norm, in part because the one-child policy cut the number of women of child-bearing age, and in part because economic pressures are making parenthood less attractive.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics says employees of enterprises work an average of 49 hours per week, more than nine hours per day. Women graduates earn less than men and are increasingly postponing having children.

Read more:
China’s population is now inexorably shrinking, bringing forward the day the planet’s population turns down

The Year of the Dragon offers hope

One hope is that 2024 will see a bump in births, being the year of the dragon in Chinese astrology, a symbol of good fortune.

Some families may have chosen to postpone childbirth during the less auspicious year of the rabbit in 2023. At least one study has identified such an effect.

An older, more dependent population

The same research team at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences and the Centre for Policy Studies at Australia’s Victoria University have China’s population falling by more than one-half to around 525 million by 2100, a fall about 62 million bigger than previously forecast.

The working-age population is set to fall more sharply to 210 million.

We now expect the number of Chinese aged 65 and older to overtake the number of Chinese of traditional working age in 2077, three years earlier than previously.

By 2100 we expect every 100 Chinese of traditional working-age to have to support 137 elderly Chinese, up from just 21 at present.

Our central scenario assumes China’s fertility rate will recover, climbing slowly to 1.3. Our low scenario assumes it will decline further to 0.88 over the next decade and then gradually recover to 1.0 by 2050 before holding steady.

We have based our assumptions on observations of actual total fertility rates in China’s region and their downward trend. In 2022 these rates hit 1.26 in Japan, 1.04 in Singapore, 0.87 in Taiwan, 0.8 in Hong Kong and 0.78 in South Korea.

In none of these countries has fertility rebounded, despite government efforts. These trends point to what demographers call the “low-fertility trap” in which fertility becomes hard to lift once it falls below 1.5 or 1.4.

An earlier peak in world population

At present accounting for one-sixth of the world’s population, China’s accelerated decline will bring forward the day when the world’s population peaks.

Our updated forecast for China brings forward our forecast of when the world’s population will peak by one year to 2083, although there is much that is uncertain (including what will happen in India, now bigger than China, whose fertility rate has fallen below replacement level).

The accelerated decline in China’s population will weaken China’s economy and, through it, the world’s economy.

It will put downward pressure on Chinese consumer spending and upward pressure on wages and government spending. As the world’s second-largest economy, this weakness will present challenges to the world’s economic recovery.

Xiujian Peng works for Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University in Australia.

– ref. China’s population shrinks again and could more than halve – here’s what that means – https://theconversation.com/chinas-population-shrinks-again-and-could-more-than-halve-heres-what-that-means-220667

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Xiujian Peng, Senior Research Fellow, Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University

China’s population has shrunk for the second year in a row.

The National Bureau of Statistics reports just 9.02 million births in 2023 – only half as many as in 2017. Set alongside China’s 11.1 million deaths in 2023, up 500,000 on 2022, it means China’s population shrank 2.08 million in 2023 after falling 850,000 in 2022. That’s a loss of about 3 million in two years.

The two consecutive declines are the first since the great famine of 1959-1961, and the trend is accelerating.

Updated projections from a research team at Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, one of the first to predict the 2022 turndown, have China’s population shrinking from its present 1.4 billion to just 525 million by 2100.

China’s working-age population is projected to fall to just 210 million by 2100 – a mere one-fifth of its peak in 2014.

Deaths climbing as births falling

The death rate is climbing as an inevitable result of the population ageing, and also an upsurge of COVID in the first few months of 2023.

The population is ageing mainly because the birth rate is falling.

China’s total fertility rate, the average number of births per woman, was fairly flat at about 1.66 between 1991 and 2017 under China’s one-child policy. But it then fell to 1.28 in 2020, to 1.08 in 2022 and is now around 1, which is way below the level of 2.1 generally thought necessary to sustain a population.

By way of comparison, Australia and the United States have fertility rates of 1.6. South Korea has the world’s lowest rate, 0.72.

Births plummet despite three-child policy

China abandoned its one-child policy in 2016. In 2021 the country introduced a three-child policy, backed by tax and other incentives.

But births are continuing to fall. In part this is because of an established one-child norm, in part because the one-child policy cut the number of women of child-bearing age, and in part because economic pressures are making parenthood less attractive.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics says employees of enterprises work an average of 49 hours per week, more than nine hours per day. Women graduates earn less than men and are increasingly postponing having children.

Read more:
China’s population is now inexorably shrinking, bringing forward the day the planet’s population turns down

The Year of the Dragon offers hope

One hope is that 2024 will see a bump in births, being the year of the dragon in Chinese astrology, a symbol of good fortune.

Some families may have chosen to postpone childbirth during the less auspicious year of the rabbit in 2023. At least one study has identified such an effect.

An older, more dependent population

The same research team at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences and the Centre for Policy Studies at Australia’s Victoria University have China’s population falling by more than one-half to around 525 million by 2100, a fall about 62 million bigger than previously forecast.

The working-age population is set to fall more sharply to 210 million.

We now expect the number of Chinese of retirement age to overtake the number of Chinese of working age in 2077, three years earlier than previously.

By 2100 we expect every 100 Chinese of working-age to have to support 137 elderly Chinese, up from just 21 at present.

Our central scenario assumes China’s fertility rate will recover, climbing slowly to 1.3. Our low scenario assumes it will decline further to 0.88 over the next decade and then gradually recover to 1.0 by 2050 before holding steady.

We have based our assumptions on observations of actual total fertility rates in China’s region and their downward trend. In 2022 these rates hit 1.26 in Japan, 1.04 in Singapore, 0.87 in Taiwan, 0.8 in Hong Kong and 0.78 in South Korea.

In none of these countries has fertility rebounded, despite government efforts. These trends point to what demographers call the “low-fertility trap” in which fertility becomes hard to lift once it falls below 1.5 or 1.4.

An earlier peak in world population

At present accounting for one-sixth of the world’s population, China’s accelerated decline will bring forward the day when the world’s population peaks.

Our updated forecast for China brings forward our forecast of when the world’s population will peak by one year to 2083, although there is much that is uncertain (including what will happen in India, now bigger than China, whose fertility rate has fallen below replacement level).

The accelerated decline in China’s population will weaken China’s economy and, through it, the world’s economy.

It will put downward pressure on Chinese consumer spending and upward pressure on wages and government spending. As the world’s second-largest economy, this weakness will present challenges to the world’s economic recovery.

Xiujian Peng works for Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University in Australia.

– ref. China’s population shrinks again and is set to more than halve – here’s what that means – https://theconversation.com/chinas-population-shrinks-again-and-is-set-to-more-than-halve-heres-what-that-means-220667

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Tuffley, Senior Lecturer in Applied Ethics & CyberSecurity, Griffith University

Cyber-skulduggery is becoming the bane of modern life. Australia’s prime minister has called it a “scourge”, and he is correct. In 2022–23, nearly 94,000 cyber crimes were reported in Australia, up 23% on the previous year.

In the latest high-profile attack, around 15,000 customers of alcohol retailer Dan Murphy, Mexican restaurant chain Guzman y Gomez, Event Cinemas, and home shopping network TVSN had their login credentials and credit card details used fraudulently to buy goods and services in what is known as a “credential stuffing” attack.

So what is credential stuffing – and how can you reduce the risk of it happening to you?

Read more:
An expert reviews the government’s 7-year plan to boost Australia’s cyber security. Here are the key takeaways

Re-using the same login details

Credential stuffing is a type of cyber attack where hackers use stolen usernames and passwords to gain unauthorised access to other online accounts.

In other words, they steal a set of login details for one site, and try it on another site to see if it works there too.

This is possible because many people use the same username and password combination across multiple websites.

It is common for people to use the same password for multiple accounts (even though this is very risky).

Some even use the same password for all their accounts. This means if one account is compromised, hackers can potentially access many (or all) their other accounts with the same credentials.

‘Brute force’ attacks

Hackers purchase job lots of login credentials (obtained from earlier data breaches) on the “dark web”.

They then use automated tools called “bots” to perform credential stuffing attacks. These tools can also be purchased on the dark web.

Bots are programs that perform tasks on the internet much faster and more efficiently than humans can.

In what is colourfully termed a “brute force” attack, hackers use bots to test millions of username and password combinations on different websites until they find a match. It’s easier and quicker than many people realise.

It is happening more often because the barrier to entry for would-be cybercriminals has never been lower. The dark web is readily accessible and the resources needed to launch attacks are available to anyone with cryptocurrency to spend and the will to cross over to the dark side.

How can you protect yourself from credential stuffing?

The best way is to never reuse passwords across multiple sites or apps. Always use a unique and strong password for each online account.

Choose a password or pass phrase that is at least 12 characters long, is complex, and hard to guess. It should include a mix of uppercase and lowercase letters, numbers, and symbols. Don’t use pet names, birthdays or anything else that can be found on social media.

You can use a password manager to generate unique passwords for all your accounts and store them securely. These use strong encryption and are generally regarded as pretty safe.

Another way to protect yourself from credential stuffing is to enable two-factor authentication (2FA) for your online accounts.

Two-factor authentication is a security feature that requires you to enter a code or use a device in addition to your password when you log in.

This adds an extra layer of protection in case your password is stolen. You can use an app, a text message, or a hardware device (such as a little “key” you plug into a computer) to receive your two-factor authentication code.

Monitor your online accounts regularly to look for any suspicious activity. You can also check if your email or password has been exposed in a data breach by using the website Have I Been Pwned.

You may be surprised by what you see. If you do discover your login details on there, use this as a timely warning to change your passwords as soon as possible.

Read more:
What is LockBit, the cybercrime gang hacking some of the world’s largest organisations?

Eternal vigilance

In today’s world of rising cyber crime, your best defence against credential stuffing and other forms of hacking is vigilance. Be proactive, not complacent about online security.

Use unique passwords and a password manager, enable two-factor authentication, monitor your accounts, and check breach notification sites (like Have I Been Pwned).

Remember, the recent attacks on Dan Murphy, Guzman y Gomez and others show how readily our online lives can be disrupted. Don’t let your credentials become another statistic. As you are reading this, the criminals are thinking up new ways to exploit our vulnerabilities.

By adopting good digital hygiene and effective security measures, we can take back control of our online identities.

Read more:
An AI-driven influence operation is spreading pro-China propaganda across YouTube

David Tuffley is affiliated with the Australian Computer Society (MACS).

– ref. What is credential stuffing and how can I protect myself? A cybersecurity researcher explains – https://theconversation.com/what-is-credential-stuffing-and-how-can-i-protect-myself-a-cybersecurity-researcher-explains-221401

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Edwards, Professor of Public Health, University of Otago

Supporters of the new government’s plan to repeal Aotearoa New Zealand’s smokefree legislation have claimed victory against “prohibition”.

Introduced under Jacinda Ardern’s government, the smokefree law came into effect in January 2023 and included a commitment to introduce mandated “denicotinisation” (cutting the nicotine to levels that are no longer addictive) of smoked tobacco products.

Studies estimated this measure would have greatly reduced smoking and helped prevent avoidable death and suffering.

However, opponents, notably the tobacco industry and its allies, criticised the measure as “prohibition”.

In a submission to the select committee on the smokefree legislation, Imperial Tobacco claimed

Mandating very low nicotine levels is equivalent to prohibiting the regular cigarettes currently consumed by millions of adult smokers.

In its submission, Japan Tobacco International wrote

The nicotine reduction policy is a de facto prohibition on conventional cigarettes and will have dire consequences.

But are the tobacco industry’s claims really true? And why has the current Health Minister gone from supporting denicotinisation to being set to repeal it?

Misunderstanding prohibition

When commentators label a public health measure as “prohibition”, they usually draw a comparison with alcohol prohibition in the United States in the 1920s and 1930s. A statement that “prohibition never works” typically follows.

Yet, these arguments fail on at least three grounds.

First, they imply prohibition is never justified and fail to mention other highly successful “prohibitions”, such as the elimination of asbestos, leaded paint and petrol, or chlorofluorocarbons in aerosols. Or water quality standards prohibiting hazardous drinking water or car safety requirements prohibiting unsafe cars.

Read more:
Smoke and mirrors: why claims that NZ’s smokefree policy could fuel an illicit tobacco trade don’t stack up

Second, they offer only a simplistic interpretation of the experience of the American prohibition era. Although not without its problems, it did substantially reduce alcohol consumption and have positive impacts on population health.

Third, denicotinisation of cigarettes and tobacco is very different from alcohol prohibition in the US in the 1920s. Claiming “prohibition never works” based on that single experience a century ago is vacuous and wrong. Denicotinisation applies to a different product, in a different setting, and in a different time.

More fundamentally, denicotinisation of cigarettes and tobacco is not a prohibition.

Prohibition requires that something is prohibited. So what is that something under the smokefree law?

Not cigarettes, as tobacco products would still be available to people who wish to buy and use them, but they would no longer contain sufficient nicotine to be addictive. Nor is it banning nicotine; anyone walking down a street in any town or city centre in Aotearoa will see numerous specialist vape stores and other retailers selling nicotine-containing vapes.

Harm reduction, not prohibition

So if denicotinisation is not prohibition, what is it? And is it a good idea?

Denicotinisation is a form of harm reduction. Although denicotinised cigarettes would still create harmful toxins when smoked, they would cause less overall harm because they are no longer addictive and people would stop using them.

Research found participants given denicotinised cigarettes smoked less and were more likely to quit smoking, because they found the cigarettes unrewarding and less appealing to smoke.

People who cannot stop using nicotine products completely would be encouraged to switch to less harmful products, such as vaping, which would still deliver nicotine.

Our own research showed a strong majority of people who smoke in New Zealand regret starting, wanted to quit, and have tried to quit. However, almost nine out of ten felt addicted to smoking.

Read more:
How raising tobacco taxes can save lives and cut poverty across the Asia-Pacific

Removing the nicotine from cigarettes and tobacco would liberate people from that addiction. Almost half of our study respondents anticipated that if tobacco products were denicotinised they would reduce the number of cigarettes they smoked, would stop smoking, or switch to alternative products like e-cigarettes.

For ethical reasons, there are no trials giving young people denicotinised cigarettes. However, logic suggests adolescents and youth would be less inclined to try cigarettes with minimal nicotine content, and even if they did, they would be very unlikely to become addicted and continue to smoke long-term.

Denicotinisation is therefore not, as it is often portrayed, a constraint on freedom. It would enhance freedom. It would help liberate people who smoke from the grip of cigarettes and protect future generations from the risk of lifelong addiction and the terrible health effects that so often follow.

A question of life and death

Modelling studies suggest denicotinisation would rapidly and equitably reduce smoking and smoking related disease, preventing 7570 deaths from 2020–2040 in Aotearoa, including 4260 Māori deaths.

While he was still in opposition, the current Health Minister Shane Reti acknowledged denicotinisation as a powerful measure that would do most of the “heavy lifting” to reduce smoking.

During the debates on the smokefree law, Reti strongly supported denicotinisation and submitted a Supplementary Order Paper to the Smokefree Environments and Regulated Products (Smoked Tobacco) Amendment Act, arguing it should be the first measure implemented.

Reti has since abandoned this position to support the coalition government’s repeal.

The government seems unaware of, or is ignoring, the research evidence and the very strong support for denicotinisation among the general population and among youth and young adults.

Numerous surveys from around the world, including our studies in Aotearoa, have found most people who smoke (or who have recently quit) strongly support denicotinisation.

Almost the only groups that don’t support this measure are the tobacco industry and their apologists. Formerly secret internal tobacco company files reveal the reason for their opposition. A 1959 British American Tobacco document explained

To lower nicotine too much might end up destroying the nicotine habit in a large number of consumers and prevent it ever being acquired by new smokers.

The New Zealand government should reverse its decision to repeal the smokefree legislation. Doing so will reassert themselves as ethical and principled leaders, whose evidence-based decisions will enhance individual New Zealanders’ freedom and health.

Richard Edwards receives research funding from the Health Research Council of New Zealand, the Cancer Society of New Zealand, the University of Queensland (Australia) and the National Institute of Health (US). His affiliations include the Society for Nicotine and Tobacco Research, the Public Health Communication Centre Briefing, Smokefree Expert Advisory Group, Health Coalition Aotearoa and the National Tobacco Control Advocacy Service Advisory Group.

Janet Hoek currently receives research funding from the Health Research Council of New Zealand, the Cancer Society of New Zealand, the University of Queensland (Australia) and the National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia). Her affiliations include the Society for Nicotine and Tobacco Research, Health Coalition Aotearoa’s Smokefree Expert Advisory Group, Aukati Tupeka Kore Group, Project Sunset (International and Oceania), the Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care, the NZ Cancer Society Research Collaboration, and the Australasian Tobacco Issues Group.

– ref. Reducing nicotine in tobacco would help people quit – without prohibiting cigarettes – https://theconversation.com/reducing-nicotine-in-tobacco-would-help-people-quit-without-prohibiting-cigarettes-221383

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa M. Given, Professor of Information Sciences & Director, Social Change Enabling Impact Platform, RMIT University

This week, federal Minister for Industry and Science Ed Husic announced the Australian government’s response to the Safe and Responsible AI in Australia consultation.

The response addresses feedback from last year’s consultation on artificial intelligence (AI). It received more than 500 submissions, noting “excitement for the opportunities” of AI tools, but also raising concerns about potential risks and Australians’ expectations for “regulatory safeguards to prevent harms”.

Instead of enacting a single AI regulatory law like the European Union has done, the Australian government plans to focus on high-risk areas of AI implementation – ones with the greatest potential for harm. This could include examples such as discrimination in the workplace, the justice system, surveillance or self-driving cars.

The government also plans to create a temporary expert advisory group to support the development of these guardrails.

Read more:
Australians are concerned about AI. Is the federal government doing enough to mitigate risks?

How will we define ‘high-risk’ AI?

While this proportional response may be welcomed by some, focusing on high-risk areas with only a temporary advisory body raises significant questions:

• how will high-risk areas be defined – and who makes that decision?

• should low-risk AI applications face similar regulation, when some interventions (such as requiring watermarks for AI-generated content) could broadly combat misinformation?

• without a permanent advisory board, how can organisations anticipate risks for new AI technologies and new applications of AI tools in the future?

Assessing “risk” in using new technologies is not new. We have many existing principles, guidelines, and regulations that can be adapted to address concerns about AI tools.

For example, many Australian sectors are already highly regulated to address safety concerns, such as vehicles and medical devices.

In all research involving people, Australian researchers must comply with national guidelines where risk assessment practices are well defined:

• identifying the risks and who might be at risk of harm;

• assessing the likelihood, severity and magnitude of risk;

• considering strategies to minimise, mitigate, and/or manage risks;

• identifying potential benefits, and who may benefit; and

• weighing the risks and determining whether the risks are justified by potential benefits.

This risk assessment is done before research being done, with significant review and oversight by Human Research Ethics Committees. A similar approach could be used for AI risk assessment.

AI is already in our lives

One significant problem with AI regulation is that many tools are already used in Australian homes and workplaces, but without regulatory guardrails to manage risks.

A recent YouGov report found 90% of Australian workers used AI tools for daily tasks, despite serious limitations and flaws. AI tools can “hallucinate” and present fake information to users. The lack of transparency about training data raises concerns about bias and copyright infringement.

Consumers and organisations need guidance on appropriate adoption of AI tools to manage risks, but many uses are outside “high risk” areas.

Defining “high risk” settings is challenging. The concept of “risk” sits on a spectrum and is not absolute. Risk is not determined by a tool itself, or the setting where it is used. Risk arises from contextual factors that create potential for harm.

For example, while knitting needles pose little risk in everyday life, knitters are cautioned against carrying metal needles on airplanes. Airport security views these as “dangerous” tools and restricts their use in this setting to prevent harm.

To identify “high risk” settings we must understand how AI tools work. Knowing AI tools can lead to gender discrimination in hiring practices means all organisations must manage risk in recruitment. Not understanding the limitations of AI, like the American lawyer who trusted fake case law generated by ChatGPT, highlights the risk of human error in AI tool use.

Risks posed by people and organisations in using AI tools must be managed alongside risks posed by the technology itself.

Read more:
How a New York Times copyright lawsuit against OpenAI could potentially transform how AI and copyright work

Who will advise the government?

The government notes in its response that the expert advisory body on AI risks will need “diverse membership and expertise from across industry, academia, civil society and the legal profession”.

Within industry, membership should include various sectors (such as healthcare, banking, law enforcement) with representation from large organisations and small-to-medium enterprises.

Within academia, membership should include not just AI computing experts, but also social scientists with expertise in consumer and organisational behaviour. They can advise on risk analysis, ethics, and what people worry about when it comes to adopting new technology, including misinformation, trust and privacy concerns.

The government must also decide how to manage potential future AI risks. A permanent advisory body could manage risks for future technologies and for new uses of existing tools.

Such a body could also advise consumers and workplaces on AI applications at lower levels of risk, particularly where limited or no regulations are in place.

Misinformation is one key area where the limitations of AI tools are known, requiring people to have strong critical thinking and information literacy skills. For example, requiring transparency in the use of AI-generated images can ensure consumers are not misled.

Yet the government’s current focus for transparency is limited to “high-risk” settings. This is a start, but more advice – and more regulation – will be needed.

Lisa M. Given receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. She is a Fellow of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia and a past President of the Association for Information Science and Technology.

– ref. Australia plans to regulate ‘high-risk’ AI. Here’s how to do that successfully – https://theconversation.com/australia-plans-to-regulate-high-risk-ai-heres-how-to-do-that-successfully-221321

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cameron Webb, Clinical Associate Professor and Principal Hospital Scientist, University of Sydney

Protecting yourself and family from mosquito bites can be challenging, especially in this hot and humid weather. Protests from young children and fears about topical insect repellents drive some to try alternatives such as wristbands, patches and stickers.

These products are sold online as well as in supermarkets, pharmacies and camping stores. They’re often marketed as providing “natural” protection from mosquitoes.

But unfortunately, they aren’t a reliable way to prevent mosquito bites. Here’s why – and what you can try instead.

Why is preventing mosquito bites important?

Mosquitoes can spread pathogens that make us sick. Japanese encephalitis and Murray Valley encephalitis viruses can have potentially fatal outcomes. While Ross River virus won’t kill you, it can cause potentially debilitating illnesses.

Health authorities recommend preventing mosquito bites by: avoiding areas and times of the day when mosquitoes are most active; covering up with long sleeved shirts, long pants, and covered shoes; and applying a topical insect repellent (a cream, lotion, or spray).

Read more:
Will Japanese encephalitis return this summer? What about other diseases mosquitoes spread?

I don’t want to put sticky and smelly repellents on my skin!

While for many people, the “sting” of a biting mosquitoes is enough to prompt a dose of repellent, others are reluctant. Some are deterred by the unpleasant feel or smell of insect repellents. Others believe topical repellents contain chemicals that are dangerous to our health.

However, many studies have shown that, when used as recommended, these products are safe to use. All products marketed as mosquito repellents in Australia must be registered by the Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority; a process that provides recommendations for safe use.

Read more:
Feel like you’re a mozzie magnet? It’s true – mosquitoes prefer to bite some people over others

How do topical repellents work?

While there remains some uncertainty about how the chemicals in topical insect repellents actually work, they appear to either block the sensory organs of mosquitoes that drive them to bite, or overpower the smells of our skin that helps mosquitoes find us.

Diethytolumide (DEET) is a widely recommended ingredient in topical repellents. Picaridin and oil of lemon eucalyptus are also used and have been shown to be effective and safe.

How do other products work?

“Physical” insect-repelling products, such as wristbands, coils and candles, often contain a botanically derived chemical and are often marketed as being an alternative to DEET.

However, studies have shown that devices such as candles containing citronella oil provide lower mosquito-bite prevention than topical repellents.

A laboratory study in 2011 found wristbands infused with peppermint oil failed to provide full protection from mosquito bites.

Even as topical repellent formulations applied to the skin, these botanically derived products have lower mosquito bite protection than recommended products such as those containing DEET, picaridin and oil of lemon eucalyptus.

Wristbands infused with DEET have shown mixed results but may provide some bite protection or bite reduction. DEET-based wristbands or patches are not currently available in Australia.

There is also a range of mosquito repellent coils, sticks, and other devices that release insecticides (for example, pyrethroids). These chemicals are primarily designed to kill or “knock down” mosquitoes rather than to simply keep them from biting us.

What about stickers and patches?

Although insect repellent patches and stickers have been available for many years, there has been a sudden surge in their marketing through social media. But there are very few scientific studies testing their efficacy.

Our current understanding of the way insect repellents work would suggest these small stickers and patches offer little protection from mosquito bites.

At best, they may reduce some bites in the way mosquito coils containing botanical products work. However, the passive release of chemicals from the patches and stickers is likely to be substantially lower than those from mosquito coils and other devices actively releasing chemicals.

One study in 2013 found a sticker infused with oil of lemon eucalyptus “did not provide significant protection to volunteers”.

Clothing impregnated with insecticides, such as permethrin, will assist in reducing mosquito bites but topical insect repellents are still recommended for exposed areas of skin.

Read more:
Bzzz, slap! How to treat insect bites (home remedies included)

Take care when using these products

The idea you can apply a sticker or patch to your clothing to protect you from mosquito bites may sound appealing, but these devices provide a false sense of security. There is no evidence they are an equally effective alternative to the topical repellents recommended by health authorities around the world. It only takes one bite from a mosquito to transmit the pathogens that result in serious disease.

It is also worth noting that there are some health warnings and recommendations for their use required by Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority. Some of these products warn against application to the skin (recommending application to clothing only) and to keep products “out of reach of children”. This is a challenge if attached to young children’s clothing.

Similar warnings are associated with most other topical and non-topical mosquito repellents. Always check the labels of these products for safe use recommendations.

Are there any other practical alternatives?

Topical insect repellents are safe and effective. Most can be used on children from 12 months of age and pose no health risks. Make sure you apply the repellent as a thin even coat on all exposed areas of skin.

But you don’t need “tropical strength” repellents for short periods of time outdoors; a range of formulations with lower concentrations of repellent will work well for shorter trips outdoors. There are some repellents that don’t smell as strong (for example, children’s formulations, odourless formulations) or formulations that may be more pleasant to use (for example, pump pack sprays).

Finally, you can always cover up. Loose-fitting long-sleeved shirts, long pants, and covered shoes will provide a physical barrier between you and mosquitoes on the hunt for your or your family’s blood this summer.

Cameron Webb and the Department of Medical Entomology, NSW Health Pathology, have been engaged by a wide range of insect repellent and insecticide manufacturers to provide testing of products and provide expert advice on mosquito biology. Cameron has also received funding from local, state and federal agencies to undertake research into mosquito-borne disease surveillance and management.

– ref. Stickers and wristbands aren’t a reliable way to prevent mosquito bites. Here’s why – https://theconversation.com/stickers-and-wristbands-arent-a-reliable-way-to-prevent-mosquito-bites-heres-why-220284

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew M. Baker, Associate Professor in Ecology and Environmental Science, Queensland University of Technology

If you are exploring our beautiful Australian wilderness this year, keep an eye out for animals behaving in interesting ways. You never know what you might see, as our research team discovered.

In 2023, our colleague from Sunshine Coast Council, Elliot Bowerman, took a two-night trip to New England National Park – its 1,500 metre-high mountain peaks are some of the loftiest on Australia’s mid-east coast.

On the afternoon of 17 August, Elliot trekked the path to Point Lookout. While inspecting some plants on the trail, he heard a rustle in the bushes ahead and peering more closely, saw something of interest. A small mammal had abruptly appeared, dragging the carcass of another mammal, which it then began to devour.

At first glance, this was not so strange. Mammals eat each other all the time. However, it is unusual to see small mammals during the day at such close quarters, so Elliot recorded the scene, taking a video on his mobile phone.

It was only several days later when looking over the footage that our research team realised it featured something rarely seen in the wild, the record of which is now published in the journal Australian Mammalogy.

Read more:
Meet 5 of Australia’s tiniest mammals, who tread a tightrope between life and death every night

A native marsupial… cannibal

The furry critter on film was an antechinus, a native marsupial denizen of forested areas in eastern, south-western and northern Australia. Antechinuses usually eat a range of insects and spiders, occasionally taking small vertebrates such as birds, lizards, or even other mammals.

But this camera footage clearly showed a mainland dusky antechinus (Antechinus mimetes mimetes), and it was eating a dead member of its own species!

Antechinuses are perhaps best known for exhibiting semelparity, or “suicidal reproduction”. This is death after reproducing in a single breeding period. The phenomenon is known in a range of plants, invertebrates and vertebrates, but it is rare in mammals.

Each year, all antechinus males drop dead at the end of a one to three week breeding season, poisoned by their own raging hormones.

This is because the stress hormone cortisol rises during the breeding period. At the same time, surging testosterone from the super-sized testes in males causes a failure in the biological mechanism that mops up the cortisol. The flood of unbound cortisol results in systemic organ failure and the inevitable, gruesome death of every male.

Mercifully, death occurs only after the males have unloaded their precious cargo of sperm, mating with as many promiscuous females as possible in marathon, energy-sapping sessions lasting up to 14 hours. The pregnant females are then responsible for ensuring the survival of the species.

So, exactly what was happening that day at Point Lookout – why had an antechinus turned cannibal?

Cheap calories

August is the breeding period for mainland dusky antechinuses at that location. Intense mating burns calories, and at the end of winter it is cold and there isn’t as much invertebrate food about.

If there are male antechinuses dropping dead from sex-fuelled exhaustion, our thinking is that still-living male and female antechinuses are taking advantage of the cheap energy boost via a hearty feast of a fallen comrade.

After all, animal flesh provides plenty of energetic bang for the buck, particularly if its owner does not have to be pursued or overpowered before being devoured.

In many areas of Australia, two antechinus species (of the known fifteen) occur together, and usually their breeding periods are separated by only a few weeks. One can imagine a scenario where individuals may not only feed on the carcasses of their own species but consume the other species as well.

Each species may benefit from eating the dead males of the other. For the earlier-breeding species, females may be pregnant or lactating, which is a huge energy drain.

For the later-breeding species, both sexes need to pack on weight and body condition before their own breeding period commences.

Plausibly then, antechinus engage in orgiastic breeding and, when opportune, cannibalistic feeding.

So, the next time you are out and about in the bush, keep your eyes and ears peeled – you never know what secrets nature might reveal to you just around the next corner.

The author would like to acknowledge the co-authors of the paper, Elliot Bowerman from Sunshine Coast Council, and Ian Gynther from the Queensland Department of Environment, Science and Innovation.

Read more:
Torpor: a neat survival trick once thought rare in Australian animals is actually widespread

Andrew M. Baker receives funding from the Federal Government, State Governments, Australian Biological Resources Study and various Industry sources.

– ref. These fierce, tiny marsupials drop dead after lengthy sex fests – and sometimes become cannibals – https://theconversation.com/these-fierce-tiny-marsupials-drop-dead-after-lengthy-sex-fests-and-sometimes-become-cannibals-221009

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brian Robert Cook, Associate Professor of Geography, The University of Melbourne

In the wake of cyclone Jasper, the new Australian Warning System has been roundly criticised. The system has been characterised as a “dog’s breakfast” and a “cock-up of massive proportions”.

For both emergency warnings, as well as for general awareness-raising around disaster preparedness, one-way communications are the default in risk management.

This reliance on communications is wishful thinking.

Whether as text messages and alerts when disasters strike, or as pamphlets and expert advice to encourage preparedness, we need to rethink how we use communications if we want more resilient communities.

Read more:
When disaster strikes, emergency responders can’t respond to every call. Communities must be helped to help themselves

Warnings reflect unreasonable expectations

As noted by Australians in the aftermath of cyclone Jasper and the Maribyrnong floods, the advice in warnings is often perceived to be incorrect, late, vague, and confusing.

Rather than an error that can be fixed with better content, this reflects unreasonable expectations.

We expect a warning to be sufficiently abstract to be useful across large regions and for many people with varying levels of exposure and capacity.

At the same time, we also expect information specific enough for stressed and possibly traumatised individuals to implement in life-threatening situations.

In response to recommendations from numerous inquiries, authorities have applied standards and terminology to ensure consistency. While this sounds reasonable, it means that future warnings will continue to be ineffective.

It is worth repeating that risks are dynamic and personal. Communications useful to a young, well-connected longtime resident will be received very differently by a middle aged, isolated, “tree change” individual who has grown up in urban areas.

That a generic warning is unable to satisfy the needs of diverse individuals, experiencing varying levels of hazard, spread over large areas, and over time is unsurprising. What is surprising is the belief that “better warnings” will.

Repeating the same mistakes

Warnings and awareness raising for disaster preparedness reflect how the risk sector relies on communications to “engage” the public. This is based on a discredited approach that assumes communications can prompt targeted, lasting behaviour change.

The development of the Australian Warning System reflects this reliance. It is a position reaffirmed in the reports, commissions, and inquiries that have followed recent Australian disasters.

For example, in the 2020 Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements, a whole chapter is dedicated to “Emergency Information and Warnings”.

Read more:
Disastrous floods in WA – why were we not prepared?

Similarly, one focus of the ongoing inquiry into the 2022 Victorian floods is on the “adequacy and effectiveness of early warning systems”. As it was for the 2011 Comrie Review, communications go unquestioned as the primary way to engage the public.

Frustration with repeated failure is becoming evident as successive commissions and inquiries hear the echoes of past efforts. The NSW 2022 flood inquiry stands out for its blunt recognition that Australians appear to be locked in a cycle. Disasters expose systemic failings that result in recommendations that go unimplemented. The report read:

The Inquiry heard a deep sense of frustration from many flood-affected residents and community members over a lack of implementation and change over time, despite multiple previous reviews. Many were sceptical that this Inquiry would succeed in effecting significant change. Similar findings on implementation (or lack thereof) were made in the 2020 NSW Independent Bushfire Inquiry, which recommended that a central accountability mechanism be established to track implementation of the report.

But what is missed in all of these reviews is a critical examination of our tendency to default to communications.

The cost of being reactive

Part of the problem with our reliance on communications is that, in the case of warnings, by the time they arrive we are reacting to an unfolding crisis, rather than preparing for one. This raises the costs significantly.

The resulting costs of disasters, currently $38 billion annually, are expected to rise to between $73 and $94 billion annually by 2060, according to a Deloitte report. The report argued:

The Australian economy is facing $1.2 trillion in cumulative costs of natural disasters over the next 40 years even under a low emissions scenario. This shows there is the potential for large economic gains from investments to improve Australia’s resilience to natural disasters. Targeted investments in both physical (such as infrastructure) and community (such as preparedness programs) resilience measures are predicted to significantly reduce the increasing costs of natural disasters

Disaster costs are an unavoidably shared burden. Whether in the form of disaster response, relief, and recovery or in the form of investment in preparedness, public funds will inevitably be required in ever-larger amounts.

This situation results in astronomical expenditures during events and, later, “pinching pennies” for preparedness. This bias towards response and recovery over preparedness is known, made all the more frustrating because preparedness is shown to be cost-effective.

So what should happen instead?

Communications do not create community resilience, they activate it.

Our recent research shows that, rather than communications, we need to engage meaningfully with communities. This means respecting their positions and values and appreciating that resilience is a long, slow, collaborative process that requires humility, active listening, experience, reflection, and support.

Our research shows that by conducting one-on-one engagement with members of the community, we can better understand their circumstances and support their agency. This has helped people as they learn about risk. They’ve shared lessons with their neighbours and helped family members to better protect themselves. This means we’re seeing knowledge and risk mitigation circulate through communities.

This way of partnering takes time and takes work, but it opens pathways for the learning and behaviour changes that help our communities expand their resilience. While it is expensive, the predicted costs of disasters more than justify such efforts.

Read more:
Every Australian will be touched by climate change. So let’s start a national conversation about how we’ll cope

As parts of Queensland and Victoria continue to be battered by disasters, it is time to admit that communications alone do not build resilience. They play an important role, but they are only one element of what needs to be a long-term partnership.

Rather than scooping the “dog’s breakfast” back into the bowl, we need to consider the underlying causes of the mess. With resilience, Australians will be ready and able to share in the growing burden of risk management.

Brian Robert Cook receives funding from Melbourne Water.

Peter Kamstra does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. We can’t rely on the ‘dogs breakfast’ of disaster warnings to do the hard work of building community resilience – https://theconversation.com/we-cant-rely-on-the-dogs-breakfast-of-disaster-warnings-to-do-the-hard-work-of-building-community-resilience-220940

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milad Haghani, Senior Lecturer of Urban Mobility, Public Safety & Disaster Risk, UNSW Sydney

Last year, 1,266 Australians died from road accidents involving at least one car and a driver, passenger, pedestrian or cyclist. The economic cost of Australian road trauma exceeds A$27 billion each year. That’s 1.8% of Australia’s GDP.

Australia has committed to an ambitious target of zero road deaths by 2050, known as Vision Zero. Originating in Sweden in the late 1990s, Vision Zero is based on a simple principle: no loss of life or serious injury on roads is acceptable.

But while we were making good progress at reducing road trauma, this has stalled in recent years, with Australian road deaths rising to levels not seen in nearly a decade.

If the current trend continues, meeting the Vision Zero target by 2050 appears impossible. So what’s going wrong?

Progress and setbacks

The journey towards reducing road trauma has had both progress and setbacks. In the early 1990s, roads were claiming more than 2,000 lives in Australia each year.

Over the years, we managed to significantly reduce this number. By 2020, the annual road toll had dropped to around 1,097, almost halving the figure from three decades prior.

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Are Australia’s roads becoming more dangerous? Here’s what the data says

However, recently, we’ve witnessed a worrying reversal: three consecutive years of increasing road deaths.

With more progress, it gets harder to improve

Over the years, through various safety initiatives and public awareness campaigns, we managed to significantly reduce road trauma. This includes measures such as seatbelt, helmet and child-seat laws, as well as regulations around speeding, drink-driving and phone use.

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We also have safer cars and infrastructure now. Modern car features and technologies – such as auto-emergency braking, lane-keep assist, blind spot monitoring and airbags – are associated with a lower risk of road accidents and fatalities.

With the significant benefits we have gained from these measures, additional safety measures will naturally lead to smaller improvements. But the toll is actually worsening.

What role did the pandemic play?

For the first time in decades, we’ve seen a sustained increase in road deaths in Australia and other countries such as the United States.

During the pandemic, more people bought cars, perhaps to avoid public transport.

However, this alone doesn’t fully explain the rise in road deaths. With more people working from home, there has been a reduction in daily commutes. Plus, the increase in the number of vehicles has been modest relative to the rise in road deaths.

So the assumption that more people are dying because there are more cars is, at best, a partial explanation.

Risky driving behaviours

The post-pandemic data shows several indicators of declining road user behaviour and attitudes.

In New South Wales, for example, there has been a substantial increase in fines for minor speeding offences.

Across Australia, the number of fatal crashes in 60–70 km/h zones has been rising, from 241 associated deaths in 2020 to 315 in 2022. Speeding is likely to play a role, but it’s unclear to what extent.

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Remote and regional roads still pose a significantly higher risk of death, relative to their population. The road death risk is about six times higher in outer regional areas and nine times higher in remote areas compared to major cities.

This could be due to a number of factors: speeding, risk-taking behaviours and others such as poorer infrastructure, lower levels of enforcement, collisions with wildlife, long-trips and driver fatigue.

Deadly crashes involving drivers without valid licences have also risen. In 2019, 96 deaths were reported in crashes involving operators without a valid licence. This rose to 116 in 2020 and 128 in 2021.

The number of road deaths involving a cyclist or motorcyclist not wearing a helmet was 19 in 2019, but it jumped to 28 in 2020 and 2021, a 47% increase.

The proportion of road deaths with drugs detected in the operator’s system has been rising, from 14% for drivers and 11% for motorcyclists in 2015. In 2021, these numbers rose to 17% for drivers and 28% for motorcyclists.

Another worrying trend is the increased risk of road death for the 17–25 age group. This age group is now at the highest risk of fatality on our roads, surpassing the over-75 age group.

Improving road safety

For the foreseeable future, human drivers will continue to be the primary operators of vehicles, and human factors remain the biggest contributor to road trauma.

When it comes to saving lives on the roads, we need to monitor attitudes to road safety. One way is through regular surveys at state and national levels, tracking scores of behavioural indicators over time. Much like political parties using ongoing polls to track the political climate, regular tracking of the community road safety climate allows us to proactively address challenges emerging from user behaviour, rather than waiting for alarming statistics.

Australia has some of the most progressive road safety policies globally. But our ambitious targets demands focusing more on user behaviour. Road safety campaigns, delivered via TV and other media, can influence road safety behaviours, with tailored campaigns targeting the specific demographics and behaviours of concern. Intensifying investment in these campaigns could be a key strategy in achieving our road safety goals.

Milad Haghani receives funding from the Australian Research Council (Grant No. DE210100440).

– ref. Can we cut road deaths to zero by 2050? Current trends say no. What’s going wrong? – https://theconversation.com/can-we-cut-road-deaths-to-zero-by-2050-current-trends-say-no-whats-going-wrong-220289

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robin Smit, Adjunct Professor, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Technology Sydney

Transport is likely the hardest economic sector to decarbonise. And road vehicles produce the most greenhouse gas emissions of the Australian transport sector – 85% of its total. Freight trucks account for only 8% of travel on our roads but 27% of transport emissions.

We analysed the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of Australian passenger cars and SUVs in a 2022 study. We have now looked at Australian trucks.

The 2022 study showed Australian electric cars already provided large cuts in emissions in 2019. The reduction was 30-40% compared to the overall on-road passenger vehicle fleet’s (life-cycle) emissions per kilometre in 2018. When renewables take over the electricity grid from which battery electric vehicles are charged, the cuts will be even bigger – around 75-80%.

Is it the same for Australian trucks? Our new study shows battery electric trucks are the best road transport option for getting closer to net-zero emissions. As the shift to renewables continues and batteries become more durable, these trucks are expected to deliver the largest and most certain emission cuts of 75-85% over their entire life cycle.

Hydrogen-powered (fuel cell) trucks also provide large emission cuts, but not as much as battery electric trucks. Their future performance is the most uncertain at this stage.

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What did the study look at?

We looked at the fleet-averaged life-cycle emissions of three Australian truck sizes and three technologies – diesel, hydrogen and electric – for the pre-COVID year 2019 and a future decarbonised scenario. This scenario is based on 90% renewables in the electricity grid and 90% green hydrogen (produced using renewable energy).

To fairly assess emissions performance, we must look at the whole life cycle of both the vehicle and its energy or fuel process. Life-cycle assessment considers all aspects of a vehicle’s life – manufacturing, on-road driving, maintenance and disposal – and energy or fuel production and distribution. In future work we would like to include the life-cycle emission impacts of infrastructure such as roads.

We also added something that is less commonly done in life-cycle assessments: a probabilistic analysis. Instead of estimating single emission values, we quantified a plausible range of emissions. These distributions provide helpful extra information.

For instance, if a distribution is wide (spanning a wide range of emission values), there is a lot of uncertainty and variability in the emissions performance. This would make the technology less robust from a climate change perspective.

A narrow distribution means there is less variability. We can be more certain the technology will perform as expected, with less risk of over-promising and under-performing.

Assessments must also reflect Australian conditions. For instance, we analysed truck odometer data and found Australian long-haul trucks drive much farther over their lifetime than European trucks.

Vehicle mileage directly affects lifecycle emissions but it also affects the number of times a battery or hydrogen fuel cell system may need to be replaced. Each replacement can significantly increase life-cycle emissions.

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What did the study find?

In 2019, life-cycle emissions for electric trucks (both battery electric and hydrogen fuel cells) were higher than for diesel trucks. There were a few reasons for this.

First, the electricity grid and hydrogen production depended heavily on fossil fuel power sources at the time. High-carbon energy sources increased emissions from electric vehicles. But this is changing fast.

Another important issue is uncertainty about the durability of battery and (hydrogen) fuel cell systems in heavy use, such as for long-haul articulated trucks. The largest Australian trucks travel about 2 million kilometres on average in their lifetime. Those sorts of distances test the durability of these systems.

We currently expect battery systems to last between 400,000km and 600,000km. The average lifetime mileage of long-haul freight trucks in particular means batteries will need to be replaced.

Other options on the table could at least partly reduce this problem. We could use ageing trucks differently, such as for shorter trips. Trucks could also use shared and externally charged batteries (battery swapping).

Battery and fuel cell systems are expected to become a lot more durable in coming decades. Alongside a strong decarbonisation of Australia’s electricity generation and hydrogen production, this completely changes the picture. This can be seen when we look at the estimated plausible range in life-cycle emissions for different truck sizes and powertrain technologies in the future decarbonised scenario.

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What does this mean for policy?

Our modelling shows battery electric trucks will provide deep emission cuts of 75-85%, on average, across the fleet in the future decarbonised scenario. Hydrogen (fuel cell) trucks will provide large cuts of 50-70%, on average.

Hydrogen trucks are expected to emit about twice the amount of life-cycle emissions per kilometre compared to battery electric trucks. The latter’s extra reduction in emissions will be vital for getting road transport closer to the net-zero target in 2050.

The life-cycle emissions of the hydrogen trucks also have the largest uncertainty of all the powertrains we assessed. This reflects a general lack of data and information for this technology.

This uncertainty is important for policymakers to consider. Hydrogen (fuel cell) trucks carry a higher risk of not achieving anticipated emission cuts.

Using the available evidence, our study suggests policies to cut Australian trucking emissions should focus on promoting battery electric trucks wherever possible.

Of course, other policy measures will be needed to achieve net zero. The options include shifting freight from road to lower-emission electric rail or ships. We could also reduce overall freight travel by, for instance, optimising logistics.

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Robin Smit is the Founder of and Director at Transport Energy/Emission Research (TER) and an Adjunct Professor at University of Technology Sydney.

– ref. Why electric trucks are our best bet to cut road transport emissions – https://theconversation.com/why-electric-trucks-are-our-best-bet-to-cut-road-transport-emissions-219960

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Angel Zhong, Associate Professor of Finance, RMIT University

With the cost of living soaring and many struggling to get a pay rise, it’s not surprising people are using debt to navigate life’s financial twists and turns.

Owing money can sometimes feel challenging, but not all debts should keep you awake at night.

So which debts are good and which are bad? And in what order should you pay them off? As it all depends on your personal circumstances, all I can offer is general information and not financial advice. Ideally, you should seek guidance from an accredited financial adviser. But in the meantime, here are some ideas to consider.

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What is a ‘good debt’?

Good debts can be strategic tools and help build a solid foundation for your future. They usually increase your net worth by helping you generate income or buy assets that increase in value.

With good debts, you usually get back more than what you pay for. They usually have lower interest rates and longer repayment terms. But personal finance is dynamic, and the line between good and bad debt can be nuanced. If not managed properly, even good debts can cause problems.

Some examples of “good debts” might include:

Mortgages: A mortgage allows you to buy a house, which is an asset that generally increases in value over time. You may potentially get tax advantages, such as negative gearing, through investment properties. However, it’s crucial not to overstretch yourself and turn a mortgage into a nightmare. As a rule of thumb, try avoid spending more than 30% of your income per year on your mortgage repayments.

Student loans: Education is an investment in yourself. Used well, student loans (such as HECS-HELP) can be the ticket to a higher-paying job and better career opportunities.

What is a ‘bad debt’?

“Bad debts” undermine your financial stability and can hinder your financial progress. They usually come with high interest rates and short repayment terms, making them more challenging to pay off. They can lead to a vicious cycle of debt.

Examples of bad debts include:

Payday loans: A payday loan offers a quick fix for people in a financial tight spot. However, their steep interest rates, high fees and tight repayment terms often end up worsening a person’s financial problems. The interest and fee you may end up paying can get close to the loan amount itself.

Credit card debt: Credit cards can be like quicksand for your finances. If you don’t pay off your purchase on time, you’ll be subject to an annual interest rate of around 19.94%. For a A$3,000 credit card debt, for example, that could mean paying nearly $600 annual interest. Carrying credit card debt from month to month can lead to a seemingly never-ending debt cycle.

Personal loans: People usually take personal loans from a bank to pay for something special, such as a nice holiday or a car. They often come with higher interest rates, averaging around 10%. Spending money that you don’t have can lead to prolonged financial headaches.

Buy-now-pay-later services: Buy-now-pay-later services often provide interest-free instalment options for purchases. This can be tempting, but the account fees and late payment fees associated with buy-now-pay-later services can lead to a long-term financial hangover. The convenience and accessibility of buy-now-pay-later services can also make it easy to get further and further into debt.

So in what order should I pay off my debts?

There is no one right answer to this question, but here are three factors to consider.

Prioritise high-interest debts: Start by confronting the debts with the highest interest rates. This typically includes credit card debt and personal loans. Paying off high-interest debts first can save you money and reduce your total debt faster.

Negotiate interest rates or switch lenders: Don’t be shy. A simple call to your lender requesting a lower rate can make a significant difference. You may also take advantage of sign-on offers and refinancing your loan with a new lender. In the banking business, customers are not usually rewarded for their loyalty.

Consider different repayment strategies: Choose a debt repayment strategy that aligns with your preferences. Some people get a psychological boost from paying off smaller debts first (this is often called the “snowball method”). Others focus on high-interest debts (often known as the “avalanche method”). Find what works for you. The most important thing is to have a plan and stick to it.

Review the terms of each debt carefully. Certain loans offer flexibility in repayment schedules, while others may impose penalties for early settlement. Take note of these conditions as you develop your repayment plan.

Debt can be a useful tool or a dangerous trap, depending on how you use it. By understanding the difference between good and bad debts, and by having a smart strategy for paying them off, you can take charge of your financial future.

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Angel Zhong ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. What are ‘good’ and ‘bad’ debts, and which should I pay off first? – https://theconversation.com/what-are-good-and-bad-debts-and-which-should-i-pay-off-first-217779

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Edith Jennifer Hill, Associate Lecturer, Flinders University

After spending eight years in prison in the United States, Gypsy Rose Blanchard was released on parole on December 28, 2023. Three weeks later, Blanchard has 9.8 million followers on TikTok and 8.3 million followers on Instagram.

The 32-year-old pleaded guilty in 2016 to second-degree murder after conspiring to kill her mother with then-boyfriend, Nicholas Godejohn, who was sentenced to life in prison.

Gypsy Rose’s mother, Dee Dee Blanchard, was suspected by doctors of having a condition termed “factitious disorder imposed on another”. Once known as Munchausen Syndrome by proxy, the disorder involves someone imposing symptoms of severe illness on another person. Dee Dee claimed Gypsy Rose suffered from illnesses including muscular dystrophy and leukaemia, and this lead to unnecessary medical interventions given to Gypsy Rose, including use of a wheelchair and a feeding tube, unnecessary medications – leading to the removal of her teeth and salivary glands – and multiple surgeries.

The case led to a media frenzy. Many documentaries and films were made about Gypsy Rose and her mother, including the mini-series The Act (2019) and documentary Mommy Dead and Dearest (2017). There are countless podcasts released over the years detailing the case, including The Generation Why and the RedHanded Podcast.

With this fame, even before she was released from prison, many young people fully embraced Blanchard into “stan” culture, or obsessive fandoms. There were countdowns to her prison release and videos glorifying her.

After she began her social media presence, comments under her TikTok videos read “WE LOVE YOU GYPSY ROSE”, “My favourite influencer” and “QUEEN”.

The price of fame

Fan culture is complex. Fans are often dedicated to a person and invested in how that person acts. Marketing experts Alison Joubert and Jack Coffin explore how fandom is:

deeply rooted in identity and value, and fans are likely to “cancel” people who violate norms of justice and moral responsibility.

Blanchard’s jail sentence and admission of her role in her mother’s murder is at odds with the norms of moral responsibility, yet many people online are showing their support.

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Popular podcast Do We Know Them called the stan culture around Blanchard’s rise to fame “disturbing, dystopian, and strange”.

“It’s not that I don’t think she deserves support, it’s that this is a really weird energy to have around this horrible situation,” says co-host Jessi Smiles.

TikTok creator Veronica Skaia posted a video looking at Blanchard and the “influencer pipeline”, saying “we want her to perform for us”. She predicts once Blanchard gains “too much” fame and popularity online and starts receiving brand deals, people will turn on her, wanting her to be “humbled”.

Others are sharing what they hope for Blanchard and many hope she stays off social media and takes the time she needs to reacquaint herself in the world.

Authentic and curated posts

At the time of writing, Blanchard has 17 videos on her TikTok account, with over 510 million views. The first four videos are highly produced promotional videos for her forthcoming book and television special, The Prison Confessions of Gypsy Rose Blanchard.

Other videos on her page follow very common social media tropes. Blanchard has posted a get ready with me (#GRWM) video, an outfit of the day (#OOTD) and vlog-style videos showing her first days out of prison. These videos are posted with the accompanying hashtags and captions of someone who is aware of social media trends, including the consistent use of #ThePrisonConfessionsOfGypsyRoseBlanchard.

In the GRWM video, with over 35 million views, you can hear Blanchard asking someone off-screen, “How does the get ready with me work? Do they watch the whole hour video?”. The person responds no, and asks her if she has heard of Alix Earle, a TikToker famous for her GRWM videos. The person off-screen then shows Blanchard a video of Earle.

This video is uncanny. We are watching a woman who was famously infantalised by her mother for years. She has now emerged from prison, an articulate 32-year-old, who seemingly shows limited understanding of social media, despite her massive audience.

Online success, particularly for influencers and brands, hinges upon their ability to appear authentic and to be trusted. We want to know what we can expect from an influencer. A consistent authorial voice and gradually revealing information makes us feel like we are listening to a friend.

Considering Blanchard through this lens is complex. The videos on her page are a combination of highly curated media promotion and very raw vlog-style footage. It is often apparent Blanchard is a social media novice.

This contrast is uncommon for someone with such a large online following.

Questioning authenticity

Blanchard’s authenticity has previously been called into question. Many speculate about her role in the death of her mother, and how much she knew about her mother’s false health claims and the resulting fraud in accepting the charity of their community.

It is strange to see someone occupy a position of trust and influence on a social media platform after years of speculation about the truth in their life. Away from the documentaries and the mini-series for the first time, we are going to hear Blanchard’s story from the source.

In a video posted January 17, Blanchard explores “the point” of her social media presence. She explains her aim is to spread awareness about Munchausen Syndrome by proxy. She defines the illness and discusses symptoms to look out for. She ends the video with a call to action, asking her views to post in the comments what they think needs to change in the healthcare system to protect children from medical abuse.

The media stories around Blanchard have presented a curated version of her life. Her story, now being shared online, demonstrates a different level of curation. For now, the storytelling is in the hands of the subject and we get to experience the story of Gypsy Rose Blanchard through her own voice – and the lens of TikTok.

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Save your outrage: online cancer fakers may be suffering a different kind of illness

Edith Jennifer Hill ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. ‘A really weird energy’: Gypsy Rose Blanchard went to prison for murder – and is now a social media star – https://theconversation.com/a-really-weird-energy-gypsy-rose-blanchard-went-to-prison-for-murder-and-is-now-a-social-media-star-220846