Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dulani Jayasuriya, Lecturer in Accounting and Finance, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

As the urgency of climate change ramps up, focus is increasing on digital currencies to address their environmental impact.

According to industry forecasts, the global cryptocurrency market is expected to surge to US$4.94 billion by 2030. But the process of mining digital currencies such as Bitcoin requires immense computational power – causing a significant drain on energy resources.

“Miners” use sophisticated hardware to solve complex mathematical puzzles, securing transactions and minting new coins. But this process, known as “proof of work” (PoW), is energy intensive.

Imagine a giant lock with a million combinations. Miners are all competing to find the right combination to unlock the block (a group of transactions) and earn rewards. The more computing power you have, the faster you can try different combinations.

But this computing power requires a lot of energy, similar to how a powerful car uses more petrol. So, miners are using a massive amount of electricity to run super-powered computers 24/7.

In 2021, police in the United Kingdom raided an industrial unit under suspicion it was housing an indoor marijuana growing operation. They were surprised to discover instead an extensive Bitcoin mining setup which was illegally siphoning electricity from a mains supply.

In 2021, Bitcoin mining consumed enough energy to rank 27th among nations, ahead of Pakistan with a population of over 230 million people. Just a year later, Bitcoin’s energy usage surpassed Finland’s national power consumption.

Alternatives have emerged to address the rampant energy consumption of cryptocurrency mining. But the question is, are these green currencies a viable alternative to the traditional options?

The emergence of green cryptocurrencies

Green cryptocurrencies use a less energy-intensive process known as “proof of stake” (PoS). Instead of needing a powerful computer, miners need to have a certain amount of the relevant cryptocurrency – kind of like a deposit.

If someone tries to cheat or mess with the system, they could lose some of their own cryptocurrency. This “skin in the game” keeps validators – those validating and verifying transactions – honest and secure.

A pivotal moment for those interested in green alternatives was cryptocurrency Ethereum’s migration to PoS in September 2022, through an update dubbed “The Merge”.

This shift led to a 99.9% drop in Ethereum’s energy use. Before the transition, Ethereum’s energy consumption was on par with Switzerland. Post-merge, its power usage was closer to that of a small town.

Challenges and the road ahead

In addition to Ethereum, several other cryptocurrencies are making significant strides in the realm of green finance. Notably, Cardano and Solana are gaining ground in the crypto market. They use significantly less energy, can handle larger numbers of transactions without slowing down, and claim to be secure.

Despite the benefits, the shift to green cryptocurrencies is fraught with challenges. Some users worry PoS might be less secure than PoW. And those with more coins have a higher chance of validating transactions. This could lead to a situation where a few people control the network.

Moreover, the initial distribution of coins in cryptocurrencies using PoS can be less democratic, often benefiting early adopters.

As a result, early adopters who accumulate a large number of coins can have a disproportionate influence on the network. This can be seen as less democratic because it gives more power to the wealthy, which goes against the decentralised ethos of cryptocurrencies.

Evolution of green currencies continues

PoS is not the only change attempting to address cryptocurrencies’ energy consumption. Sharding is another.

Sharding divides the network into smaller sections called “shards”, each handling its own set of transactions. This frees up individual computers on the network (called nodes) from processing everything at once, leading to significantly faster transaction speeds and lower costs.

This innovation goes beyond just efficiency. Sharding’s parallel processing approach minimises energy needs, potentially making cryptocurrencies more eco-friendly.

Ethereum’s upcoming upgrade, Ethereum 2.0, incorporates sharding to address the network’s current limitations on speed and transaction fees. By implementing sharding in phases, developers hope to ensure a smooth transition while maintaining the network’s security and decentralisation.

While sharding seems like a game-changer, it’s not without its own hurdles. Implementing it effectively requires careful planning and rigorous testing to safeguard the network’s integrity.

Overall, sharding offers a glimpse into a future where cryptocurrencies can process transactions faster, become more cost-effective and even reduce their environmental impact.

Green cryptocurrencies show how technology and finance can support ecological sustainability, providing a model for others to follow. But there is always a risk. And as they develop, green cryptocurrencies need to address concerns over security, network integrity and accessibility.

Dulani Jayasuriya does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Cryptocurrencies use massive amounts of power – but eco-friendly alternatives come with their own risks – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/229607

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Anthony Albanese recently told the Labor caucus his cabinet is preparing “an offer” to put to the Australian people at the election.

As it crafts its pitch, the biggest uncertainty looming over Labor is what sort of parliament a second term Albanese government would likely face.

The general expectation is for Labor to be returned. (Caveat: expectations can be wrong – who can forget 2019?) The question is: would it be a majority or minority government?

A May analysis of “The political landscape a year from the 2025 election”, prepared by the social and political research firms Accent Research and the RedBridge Group, concludes “a hung parliament or a Labor majority are almost equally likely outcomes” of the election.

“The likely range of seats won by Labor if an election were held during the fieldwork period [February to May] is estimated to have a low end of 71 and an upper range of 83,” the report says.

Ahead of a 2025 election, if Republican nominee Donald Trump wins in November’s US presidential election, that could affect the campaign climate. The world would change, with implications for Australia.

A federal election held in the shadow of the first days of a Trump presidency would elevate foreign policy issues. One obvious point of debate would be how either leader would potentially handle an unpredictable Trump.

A Trump presidency might favour Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s national security focus. But an opposite view, held in Labor circles, is it could make people stick to the status quo. Trump’s triumph would also be fodder for the Greens in their attack on Labor’s closeness to the US. For its part, Labor would argue the Australia-US alliance is enduring regardless of individual US and Australian leaders and governments.

Because most observers discount the chance of a Dutton win, the thinness of Labor’s present majority (it has 78 seats in the 151 member House of Representatives) is often overlooked. It wouldn’t take much to slip into minority.

The polling suggests things haven’t moved significantly since the 2022 election, and history tells us governments can expect to go backwards at their first election. The 2025 election could be decided by a handful of seats – the days of huge swings and massive majorities seem behind us at least for now. We’re in an era of large crossbenches.

In its first term, this has been a “labour” government, but not a “radical” government. Some see its changes as incremental, but in economic terms, both unions and business see it as markedly re-tilting the playing field.

It has delivered heftily to the unions on industrial relations. It has committed to an interventionist industry policy. It has made modest improvements for those on social welfare. It has prosecuted the case for wage rises for the low paid, particularly women. These things have been combined with careful budget management that helped deliver two surpluses.

In what he puts to the people for another term, Albanese’s top priority will be trying to maximise his prospect of majority government. Policy adventurism in the election “offer” seems unlikely.

But that ties the government’s hands on what it can do in a second term – unless it is willing to trash promises post election. Yes, Albanese broke his word on the stage 3 tax cuts, without a backlash. But that doesn’t mean he’d want to make a habit of it – unless his hand was forced, for example, by the exigencies of minority government.

Albanese’s original strategy, it used to be said, was based on several terms, winning trust initially and moving to more robust initiatives later. Thus, many in the Labor base, and the wider left, would wish for a more radical second term program from the leader who made himself a small target in 2022.

For instance, Richard Denniss, head of The Australia Institute, a progressive think tank, says he would have on his wish list: attacking negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount; stopping the approval of new coal and gas mines; sweeping changes to environmental laws and introducing general public hearings at the National Anti-Corruption Commission.

But how brave/rash/out-of-character would such an “offer” be for Albanese as we observe him? He knows rocking the boat too hard would increase the chances of falling into the (minority government) drink.

Kos Samaras, a RedBridge director, former Labor official and political hardhead, says voters “just want to see a vision for the future, a plan for getting out of the mess – the mess on the housing issue, the stalemate on inflation. A vision that doesn’t scapegoat particular groups of Australians.”

Any “vision”, however, must have tangibles.

Rod Sims, former chief of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission and now professor of public policy at the Australian National University’s Crawford School, homes in on a specific “vision” pitch.

The government should be expanding on the vision of Australia as an export-oriented green superpower. We can replace coal and gas exports with renewable energy-based exports. There’s an enormous vision there that needs to be further explained, and more policies need to be put around it.

This vision puts Australia at the heart of global emissions reduction, contributing up to a 10% reduction, and is “pro-productivity, pro-prosperity and pro-regions”, Sims says.

Within the ministry, differences bubble about what Labor should offer in the longer term. Industry Minister Ed Husic angered Treasurer Jim Chalmers when he recently suggested some future relief on company tax.

A senior Labor source points to child care and Medicare as likely policy priorities for the second term “offer”, as well as climate change, energy and the Future Made in Australia plan. Labor would describe this as a second term agenda to transform the economy through clean energy reforms and investment in manufacturing, skills and infrastructure, to create high skilled jobs in the regions and cities.

On climate change, the government’s ambition will be tested when it has to announce an emissions reduction target for 2035 in the next few months.

If it did go into minority government, the story of what Labor actually delivered in a second term might be complicated.

The Coalition likes to raise the spectre of the Greens tweaking a minority Labor government’s tail. But perhaps more likely, it might be the easier-to-deal with teals.

And that would be interesting. The teals are often seen as breakaways from the Liberal part of the spectrum. But some of them are policy radicals. If they had power to extract concessions from a minority Labor government, they’d be demanding about “process”. They’d want a lot more consultation, changes to parliament’s operations, more transparency, and beefed-up integrity measures.

On climate, they’d exert pressure against the fossil fuel industry (possibly making common cause with the Greens), and press for faster environmental action.

Sophie Scamps, independent member for the Sydney seat of Mackellar, says:

I will want to see genuine action to address climate change and real steps to wean us off fossil fuels, as well as concrete policy action to ensure we meet our international commitments to protect the environment.

While the teals would have some common demands, they also have their individual causes.

Of course, the teals have their own battles to secure re-election. In the campaign, they will be under strong pressure to say how they would exercise a balance of power role. They might avoid the question of who they’d support, but it would be harder to dodge specifics about what policies they’d want.

How great the challenge a minority government would be for Labor would depend on how many numbers the government required to pass its legislation in the lower house. It would be helped by the size and diversity of the crossbench (including among the teals).

Even so, it would be operating from a weaker position than in the first term. That would make it all the more important for it to have a clear second-term agenda for which it could then argue it had a mandate.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Grattan on Friday: how bold will Anthony Albanese be in his ‘offer’ for a potential second term? – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231704

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Priya Chacko, Associate Professor, International Politics, University of Adelaide

This year’s general election in India arguably brought up more questions about the fairness of the electoral process than any other in the country’s history.

For example, in December, a bill was passed in India’s parliament that allowed election commissioners to be appointed by a panel dominated by the executive branch, which many feared would endanger free and fair elections.

And during the campaign, Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave a string of speeches that were widely seen as Islamophobic, in which he accused the opposition Congress Party of favouring Muslims. The Election Commission failed to adequately enforce the Model Code of Conduct when it came to these comments.

Opposition chief ministers, Arvind Kejriwal of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Hemant Soren of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), meanwhile, were arrested on charges of corruption. Both parties claimed the charges were politically motivated.

One of the lessons from the election, however, is that even when there are questions about how free and fair a vote is, opposition parties can dent the dominance of ruling parties.

In India’s election, the opposition presented a united front and stuck to a consistent message reflecting specific issues of voter discontent.

Read more:
With democracy under threat in Narendra Modi’s India, how free and fair will this year’s election be?

Why caste politics were so important

Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party did not perform as well as expected in the election, suffering major losses in its heartland northern Indian states. Modi began the six-week election campaign saying his party would win more than 400 seats. Ultimately, it was reduced to 240 seats, while the opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) won 232 seats.

INDIA had a shaky start to the election. A founding member, the Janata Dal, joined Modi’s coalition earlier this year. INDIA also failed to reach a seat-sharing agreement with another member, Trinamool Congress (TMC), although that party remained part of the alliance.

Yet, as the campaign wore on, the BJP’s attacks on the opposition led to a more united front, focusing particularly on the issue of caste.

Indian society and politics are stratified by its caste system. It has roots in ancient religious texts, which grant symbolic and material rights and privileges to people based on their membership to a particular caste.

Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi’s speeches highlighted a commitment to protecting the Constitution and addressing the issue of caste-based injustice in India. He pledged to undertake a caste census to reveal the extent of disadvantage and concentration of wealth in society.

He also pointed out the government’s centralisation of power, as well as the upper caste-dominated media’s adulation of Modi and its inattention to issues of unemployment and inflation.

Lalu Prasad Yadav, a leader of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) party, which is also part of the INDIA coalition, warned the BJP intended to change the Constitution to end caste-based affirmative action. Though this was denied by Modi, the allegation seemed to strike a chord with voters.

Caste presented a dilemma for Modi’s Hindu nationalist politics, which valorises upper-caste Hindu practices and behaviours, while relying on support from the lower caste majority to win elections.

The BJP had sought to ameliorate this tension by promoting welfare schemes and accusing the secular opposition of colluding with Muslims to deprive the Hindu lower-caste poor.

In the lead-up to the election, Modi also claimed to have replaced traditional forms of caste stratification with four new castes of welfare “beneficiaries” – women, farmers, the youth and the poor.

In truth, however, the government’s welfare schemes consisted of paltry cash transfers, small loans, food rations and subsidies for private goods like toilets, which sought to compensate for the stagnation of incomes and lack of jobs. Spending on health and education by Modi’s government, which could have transformative effects on society, has languished.

The BJP’s infrastructure-driven economic program has benefited large companies, leading to accusations of crony capitalism. It has also failed to attract substantial foreign investment or grow the manufacturing sector to create more jobs.

Over the past decade – but particularly following the COVID pandemic – India has also become one of the world’s most unequal countries. Women, Dalits, Adivasis and Muslims have fared the worst.

Dalit politicians also grew in prominence

Perhaps the biggest surprise for the BJP were its heavy losses in its heartland state, Uttar Pradesh.

The Samajwadi Party (SP) had previously dominated Uttar Pradesh politics by promoting the interests of particular lower caste “other backward classes”. This tactic, however, generated resentment among other lower castes, which was exploited by the BJP to win power in 2017.

In this election, the SP appears to have fashioned a new, broader caste coalition.

This election also saw new shifts in Dalit politics, the lowest rung of the caste structure in India. In Uttar Pradesh, new Dalit political parties became increasingly prominent, such as the Azad Party led by Chandra Sekhar Azad.

Further south, the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) consolidated its status as the largest Dalit party in Tamil Nadu, winning all the seats it contested.

The future of Indian democracy

Indian democracy is not out of the woods yet. Activists, students, political leaders and journalists remain imprisoned.

The Hindu nationalist movement also has a history of inciting communal violence when things do not go its way in the electoral arena.

The Modi government started to extend its media censorship during the election, as well.

There is little to suggest that Modi will temper what many see as authoritarian tendencies, but there is now more resistance, scepticism and political alternatives that will hopefully aid India’s democratic recovery.

Priya Chacko receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Anand Sreekumar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. One issue proved key to the opposition’s stunning success in India’s election: caste politics – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231588

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hugh Possingham, Professor of Conservation Biology, The University of Queensland

Last week, the Albanese government introduced legislation to create a new statutory body called Environment Information Australia. The bill is due for debate in parliament today. The government clearly expects the bill will pass, because the new body has already been allocated A$54 million over four years in the May budget.

Why do we need it? Australia’s natural world is in steep decline – based on what we know. But there’s much we don’t know.

Australia has a fairly poor track record of effectively monitoring biodiversity. It’s hard to care for and restore nature if we don’t know how we are tracking, where to invest our efforts and into which activities.

The proposed agency will make environmental data more accessible by creating a platform where data from multiple sources can be pooled. These sources include: federal, state and territory governments, universities, research infrastructure platforms such as the Atlas of Living Australia and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network, industry and citizen scientist data.

Increased access to relevant data would enable governments to better report on how well our environment is being managed.

The agency fills a gap in our environmental management regime. But by itself, it won’t improve outcomes for nature.

The most important actions needed to reduce Australia’s rapid losses of nature are the long-promised stronger environmental protection laws, which have been delayed indefinitely and a many-fold increase in funding for on-ground conservation programs.

Why do we need this?

In 2018, a national review of how Australia monitors its threatened species found 33% had never been monitored, while many others were only poorly monitored.

Without robust information, we can’t focus our efforts where there is most need. We need to know where threatened plants and animals are still surviving, whether their populations are rising or falling, and what threatens them.

While some of this data already exists, it is owned by hundreds of different organisations.

Many of these monitoring activities are already undertaken inside the federal environment department. But there are some notable steps forward in what is being proposed in the new legislation.

Firstly, efforts to increase the public sharing of data should be applauded.

One of the three objects of the proposed act is to “improve the availability and accessibility of high quality national environmental information and data,” though the detail is yet to be released.

Another good change is requiring the important State of the Environment snapshot reports to be produced every two years, rather than every five.

The legislation also mandates the production of comprehensive and ongoing national environmental economic accounts by law.

These accounts – also called “natural capital accounts” – are useful to track the health of different environmental assets at all scales, from the habitat of a single threatened species to the entire continent.

While this is a positive step, it could be better. As the laws stand, these accounts would be narrowly focused on describing the condition of the environment and its relationship with the economy.

Because environmental accounts are standardised and ongoing, they offer an ideal platform for measuring changes in environmental conditions. They could support a major expansion of our small set of useful environmental indicators, such as the Threatened Species Index.

Ideally we should have annual robust indices for a wide range of national environmental assets such as soil, water, plants, animals, ecosystems, and nature’s contribution to people at all scales.

Read more:
Australia-first research reveals staggering loss of threatened plants over 20 years

Measuring progress against targets

One of the goals of the proposed agency will be to measure our progress toward becoming “nature positive”.

The nature positive concept has been embraced internationally. The goal is ambitious: halt biodiversity decline by 2030 against a 2020 baseline and achieve recovery by 2050.

Unfortunately, the government is proposing to embed a watered-down version of nature positive, leaving out the target dates and leaving the baseline open.

In response many Australian environmental scientists are urging the government to align with the international definition.

In November 2023, Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek talked proudly of the leading role Australia played in securing an ambitious Global Biodiversity Framework. This agreement has 23 targets which signatory nations have agreed to in an effort to stop the loss of species and nature.

To measure progress toward the target of protecting 30% of lands and seas by 2030, we will need data on what areas are protected, how they’re managed and which bioregions and plant communities they represent. That’s a job for the new agency.

Towards true nature positive development

Despite the recent deferral, the government has committed to reform our national environmental laws. These reforms need to include strong protections for habitat crucial to the survival and recovery of threatened species and ecological communities.

Here, too, the proposed agency should have a role, by modelling and mapping these critical habitats, which will help mark important areas as off limits to development. This could actually help accelerate building approvals by avoiding developers spending time on proposals unlikely to meet approvals.

If the agency is to be truly independent, as the government has promised, it will need to tackle tricky issues governments tend to shy away from, including a fully transparent account of environmental expenditures.

That covers not just the tiny amount the federal government spends on biodiversity protection, which languishes below 0.1% of total government spending, but total investment across all levels of government and different sectors.

If we want to tackle Australia’s biodiversity crisis we have to be absolutely clear about the problems we are seeking to solve and get the basics right.

Read more:
Threatened species have declined 2% a year since 2000. Nature positive? Far from it.

Hugh Possingham works for the University of Queensland, Accounting for Nature, and the Biodiversity Council. He currently receives grant funding from the Australian Research Council. He is affiliated with over 20 organisations providing pro-bono or limited renumeration, board or committee level advice. These include: BirdLife Australia (vice-President), The University of Adelaide (Environment Institute Board Chair), various state and federal governments, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (Board Chair), AgForce, and several NGOs, etc. James Trezise also contributed to this article.

Jaana Dielenberg is a Charles Darwin University Fellow. She works for the Biodiversity Council and The University of Melbourne, and previously worked for the National Environmental Science Program Threatened Species Recovery Hub.

Michelle Ward has received funding from The Australian Research Council and the Commonwealth National Environmental Science Program. She was Science and Research Lead at WWF-Australia and is currently on a Technical Advisory Panel for a project run by the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists.

Peter Burnett is a councillor with the Biodiversity Council, which seeks to be a trusted expert voice communicating accurate information on all aspects of biodiversity to the Australian people, to ensure biodiversity and Country prosper.

– ref. What will Australia’s proposed Environment Information Agency do for nature? – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231593

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kristine Crous, Senior Lecturer, Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University

As humanity continues to burn fossil fuels, the delicate balance of life on Earth is changing. That’s true of trees, many of which are growing faster as a result of increased carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations in our atmosphere.

But not all trees are responding in this way. In particular, eucalypts – Australia’s iconic forest trees – haven’t benefited from the increase in CO₂ as they were expected to.

Why not? Our new research, published today in Nature, shows it comes down to a below-ground battle for phosphorus, a mineral nutrient in soils that is essential for tree growth. The results suggest in some parts of the world, increased CO₂ means tiny bugs in the soil “hold onto” their phosphorus, making less available for trees.

This is alarming news for some forests, because according to current projections, global forest growth is meant to limit damage from global warming.

What our study involved

Our study used data from a Western Sydney University experiment known as “Eucalyptus Free Air CO₂ Enrichment”, or EucFACE. The experiment is located in a century-old Cumberland plain woodland in Sydney’s Hawkesbury district.

CO₂ is released into the woodland through a computer‐controlled system. Scientists then monitor the effects on trees, soils and the broader ecosystem. Over six years, CO₂ was raised to the levels expected around the year 2050 (according to the current business-as-usual emissions trajectory).

Our previous studies found the woodland trees did not show any extra growth at high CO₂ levels. We suspected the low availability of soil phosphorus was the cause, and set out to test this.

Phosphorus is crucial to the process of photosynthesis that makes trees grow. Phosphorus in soil is provided by bugs known as microbes. These micro-organisms break down dead and decaying matter, and in the process change phosphorus into a form that plants can take up with their roots.

Most Australian soils are naturally low in phosphorus, because they are derived from ancient, nutrient-depleted rocks. The same is true for most soils in tropical and subtropical regions. That makes the phosphorus service provided by microbes even more important.

We sampled phosphorus in all parts of the ecosystem, tracing its journey from the soil to the trees. We found under high-CO₂ conditions the microbes keep more of the phosphorus they produce, to aid their own metabolism. This left less available for trees to take up.

This occurred despite the trees trying to “bargain” for phosphorus by releasing extra carbon into the soil to feed the microbes.

What’s more, trees are big “recyclers” of phosphorus – they remove half of the phosphorus from any leaf before it falls. But this was still not enough to support extra tree growth.

Why this matters

Our study is the first to show how the phosphorus cycle is affected by high CO₂ – and in particular, the role of soil microbes.

The results are important to predicting soil phosphorus availability, and plant productivity, in woodlands and forests as CO₂ levels increase in the atmosphere.

Current climate projections assume increasing CO₂ will lead to more forest growth globally. Forests are a vital carbon “sink” – that is, they draw down carbon from the atmosphere. So the increased forest growth was projected to go some way to limiting the effects of climate change.

If our results are taken into account, future warming would be higher than current projections. However, it’s important to verify our results in other locations, with other tree species. New experiments are being formed by overseas teams, including in the Amazon rainforest, to test the findings.

Importantly, our results don’t mean that forests are not a crucial sink for carbon. Forests hold a vast quantity of carbon. Avoiding deforestation and planting new forests are both valuable means of maintaining and adding to carbon stores.

Our research demonstrates the importance of considering soils when growing trees. We also hope our research stimulates further efforts to find phosphorus in ecosystems, especially in tropical rainforests where phosphorus is often greatly limited.

Belinda Medlyn receives funding from Australian Research Council, NSW Government, Bush Heritage Australia, Arid Recovery and Australian Bureau of Meteorology. She has consulted for Landlife.

David S Ellsworth receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the NSW government.

Kristine Crous does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. A fierce battle is being fought in the soil beneath our feet – and the implications for global warming are huge – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231802

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ben White, Professor of End-of-Life Law and Regulation, Australian Centre for Health Law Research, Queensland University of Technology

The Australian Capital Territory parliament passed its voluntary assisted dying law yesterday by 20 to five.

The ACT now joins the six Australian states, all of which have their own voluntary assisted dying laws.

Like the states, the ACT law will begin after an 18-month implementation period. So eligible residents will be able to access voluntary assisted dying from November 3 2025.

This leaves only the Northern Territory without such a law. The NT government has appointed a panel to investigate the issue that is due to report next month.

ACT law broadly reflects ‘Australian model’

The ACT law generally reflects what is now called the “Australian model” of voluntary assisted dying.

Access is permitted only for people who are terminally ill and meet strict eligibility criteria. Eligibility is assessed by two independent, trained health practitioners.

The person seeking voluntary assisted dying must make repeated requests for it. Safeguards include criminal offences for conduct outside the law and a review of cases by a “Voluntary Assisted Dying Oversight Board”.

Health practitioners can conscientiously object to being involved.

Three significant ACT differences

However, there are some important differences between the law in the ACT and state laws. Three of these have been debated since the ACT bill was tabled and have been examined by a parliamentary committee. In the ACT:

• patients do not need to have a specific time frame until they are expected to die. This is different from the 6-12 months required in the state laws. But this change is not as drastic as it seems. Eligibility depends on a number of criteria including that a patient must have a condition “advanced, progressive and expected to cause death”. The “advanced” requirement includes the patient is “approaching the end of their life”

• one of the two health practitioners who assess someone’s eligibility may be a nurse practitioner. Under state laws, both assessing practitioners must be doctors

• patients who receive treatment in institutions (such as hospitals) that object to voluntary assisted dying will have a greater ability to access it than if they were in the states. Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia have legislation on this, but the ACT gives greater rights to people who are in institutions temporarily.

What happens next?

Implementation is the next step. There will be 18 months to establish system infrastructure, including the oversight board, mandatory training, guidelines, policy, and to liaise with institutions that will need to know their obligations.

The ACT government had already begun planning. Its response to the parliamentary committee report gives some indication about issues it will consider.

One is about the mandatory training all health practitioners providing voluntary assisted dying must complete. It will include consideration of palliative care, disability awareness, the role of carer relationships in decision-making, and identifying coercion.

There are also recommendations about training for the wider workforce, community education, as well as engaging with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, and culturally and linguistically diverse communities.

Lessons for other jurisdictions

The passing of the ACT law will be watched closely in the Northern Territory, which is now the only Australian jurisdiction without voluntary assisted dying laws.

The territories are last to legislate on this issue because, since 1997, they have been prohibited from doing so by a Commonwealth law. That changed in December 2022 with the passing of the Restoring Territory Rights Act. The ACT responded promptly with the bill that has just passed.

The rest of the country may examine the ACT law, particularly its novel features, when their laws are up for review. This generally occurs after three to five years, although some states have regular reviews.

One aspect of the ACT law likely to attract particular interest is allowing nurse practitioners to assess someone’s eligibility for voluntary assisted dying. They are already able to administer the medication in four states and there are calls from at least one oversight board to consider this additional role. This extra role would help address the issue of only having a limited pool of doctors who are trained and willing to provide voluntary assisted dying.

What else do we need to consider?

The most significant issue not addressed in any Australian voluntary assisted dying laws is whether someone with dementia should be eligible.

This will be considered in the ACT review of its law after three years as it is required to examine access to voluntary assisted dying via “advanced care planning”. That review must also consider whether young people with the capacity to decide should be able to access voluntary assisted dying.

However, the extent to which other Australian jurisdictions engage with these and other issues when reviewing voluntary assisted dying laws remains to be seen.

Ben White has received funding from the Australian Research Council, the National Health and Medical Research Council, and Commonwealth and state governments for research and training about the law, policy and practice relating to end-of-life care. In relation to voluntary assisted dying, he (with colleagues) has been engaged by the Victorian, Western Australian and Queensland governments to design and provide the legislatively mandated training for health practitioners involved in voluntary assisted dying in those states. He (with Lindy Willmott) has also developed a model bill for voluntary assisted dying for parliaments to consider. He is a sessional member of the Queensland Civil and Administrative Tribunal, which has jurisdiction for some aspects of this state’s voluntary assisted dying legislation. Ben is a recipient of an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (project number FT190100410: Enhancing End-of-Life Decision-Making: Optimal Regulation of Voluntary Assisted Dying) funded by the Australian government.

Lindy Willmott receives or has received funding from the Australian Research Council, the National Health and Medical Research Council and Commonwealth and state governments for research and training about the law, policy and practice relating to end-of-life care. In relation to voluntary assisted dying, she (with colleagues) has been engaged by the Victorian, Western Australian and Queensland governments to design and provide the legislatively mandated training for health practitioners involved in voluntary assisted dying in those states. She (with Ben White) has also developed a model bill for voluntary assisted dying for parliaments to consider. Lindy Willmott is also a member of the Queensland Voluntary Assisted Dying Review Board, but writes this piece in her capacity as an academic researcher. She is a former board member of Palliative Care Australia.

Madeleine Archer has worked on projects to provide the legislatively mandated training in Victoria, Western Australia, and Queensland for health practitioners involved in providing voluntary assisted dying in those states.

– ref. Voluntary assisted dying laws have been passed in the ACT. Here’s what happens next – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231698

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shane Rogers, Lecturer in Psychology, Edith Cowan University

The internet is awash with stories and videos of unlikely animal friendships, often with many millions of views. This content typically shows animals from different species showing affection to one another, signifying a bond or even a “friendship”.

These relationships have been captured in people’s homes, such as with Molly the magpie and Peggy the dog, in zoos, such as with Baloo the bear, Leo the lion and Shere Khan the tiger, and even in the wild, such as one case of a fox and cat living together in Turkey.

A plethora of research on primates, birds, kangaroos, dolphins, horses, cats and dogs has shown many non-human animals can develop deep social bonds with their own kind.

And while inter-species bonding hasn’t been studied to the same extent, videos like those mentioned above show animals from different species displaying the same affection to each other as they would to their own, such as through cuddling, playing and grooming.

Why do we, as people, find these stories so enjoyable? Answering this question requires us to consider some of the nicer aspects of our own nature.

When animals reflect us

Witnessing animals get along well together isn’t just cute, it can also make us feel like we have things in common with other species, and feel more connected with the other life on the planet. Decades of research reveals how feeling connected to nature fosters happiness in humans.

While the mechanisms behind inter-species bonding are not fully understood, one 2022 research review suggests the mechanisms that operate in other animals’ brains during social interactions with their own are similar to those that operate in human brains.

The researchers suggest that, due to the evolution of common brain mechanisms, animals engaged in social interaction may experience similar emotions to humans who engage with their own friends or loved ones.

So while it’s very hard to know what this subjective social experience is like for other animals – after all, they can’t report it on a questionnaire – there’s no reason to think it isn’t similar to our own.

Humans like co-operation and pleasant surprises

Humans have evolved to enjoy co-operation, which might also help explain why we enjoy seeing co-operation between different animal species. Some scholars suggest the human instinct for co-operation is even stronger than our instinct for competition.

Another reason we may be drawn to unlikely animal friendships is that they are, in fact, so unlikely. These interactions are surprising, and research shows humans enjoy being surprised.

Our brain has evolved to be incredibly efficient at categorising, solving problems and learning. Part of the reason we’re so efficient is because we are motivated to seek new knowledge and question what we think we know. In other words, we’re motivated to be curious.

Inter-species friendships are indeed a very curious thing. They contradict the more common assumption and observation that different species stick with their own kind. We might think “cats eat birds, so they must not like each other”. So when we see a cat and a bird getting along like old pals, this challenges our concept of how the natural world works.

Neuroscientists have documented that, when surprised, humans experience a release of brain chemicals responsible for making us more alert and sensitive to reward. It is this neurochemical reaction that produces the “pleasantness” in the feeling of being pleasantly surprised.

A desire for peace and harmony

Perhaps another explanation for why humans are so intrigued by inter-species friendships is because they feed a human desire for peace and harmony.

These connections may be symbolic of what many people yearn for: a world where differences can be put aside in favour of a peaceful co-existence. These friendships might even prompt us to imagine, consciously or subconsciously, a future in which we become more enlightened as a species.

One could argue a key reason behind the success of the TV series Star Trek is its optimistic take on the future of humanity. Inter-species co-operation is a central theme of the show.

Inter-species friendships may serve as a concrete example of breaking free of the “natural” way of being for a more peaceful way of being. And while it might only be a dream, it’s nice to watch cute animal videos that help us feel like this dream might be possible.

Shane Rogers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why do we love to see unlikely animal friendships? A psychology expert explains – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/230548

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Burton, Professor of Urban Management & Planning, Griffith University

There is little doubt Australia is in the midst of a profound housing crisis, one that has been decades in the making.

It was once reasonable to assume the market could cater for most people’s housing needs and preferences, except for those with complex social or health challenges.

But there are now more and more people in severe housing stress – sleeping rough, couch surfing, living in desperately overcrowded conditions or in vehicles and tents.

While many in these situations need no more than a reasonably priced home with a degree of security and safety, others continue to need additional support. The longer anyone lives in acute housing stress, the more likely it is they will develop serious social and health conditions.

Some of the factors driving the housing crisis are relatively new, but many have been fuelling a shortage for decades. We have not been building enough new homes for our population, which is both growing and evolving in the ways we choose to live.

For instance, many Australians are now living in smaller households, and the number of households is projected to increase in the coming decades.

This is not only driving housing demand, but also leading to significant mismatches as our housing stock fails to reflect these changes in household types.

Social housing has also been declining as a share of the national housing stock for almost 30 years at the same time as demand has been rising.

Lessons from disasters

So, what could be done now to help those already living in severe housing stress and those likely to soon join them?

Our response to this housing crisis stands in contrast to how we typically respond to other major emergencies that create localised housing crises.

Following major floods or bushfires, one of the first responses is to provide temporary accommodation for those affected.

For example, in the Northern Rivers area of New South Wales hit by the catastrophic floods of 2022, prefabricated living pods were brought in and placed in clusters or villages where other services could be provided effectively.

While there have been criticisms of the operation – its pace and scale, the chosen locations of the villages and length of stay allowed – this approach reflected an acknowledgement of the seriousness of the crisis.

Why isn’t that attitude reflected more widely when we think about housing for Australians in desperate need?

Apart from some discussions about the use of quarantine facilities built during the COVID pandemic, there are very few policy measures that involve temporary and mobile housing options.

Also, some local councils are even limiting the opportunities that people in desperate housing situations have to improve their circumstances in ways that might seem unconventional.

We know more people are now living in vehicles – including cars, caravans and converted buses – or tents. But the places where it is possible to do so legitimately are not increasing and might even be decreasing.

Most councils have local laws that prohibit sleeping overnight in vehicles, or for anyone to sleep in a tent outside a licensed campsite. There may have been good reasons for these restrictions in the past, but many were drafted when we were not experiencing a severe housing crisis.

What more could be done?

So, why is there such reluctance to accept that desperate times might call for special measures? There are three main reasons.

Firstly, as the Australian Human Rights Commission notes, housing is a basic human right and for some this means that anything less than a conventional home is a denial of this right.

However, it avoids the question of what to do if there are not enough conventional homes to fulfil this obligation in the short term, while knowing it will take many years to achieve our ambitious new building targets.

In other words, while providing a regulated campsite for people with no choice but to live in a tent or a vehicle might not fulfill a long-term human rights obligation, it could provide an acceptable short-term step along the way.

Secondly, some critics fear the commitment to long-term solutions and systemic change might be undermined if unconventional and short-term forms of accommodation – such as providing places to park a vehicle or pitch a tent safely, and have access to services and facilities – are supported.

But for people in acute housing stress, the prospect of waiting years for structural reform to improve their housing situation is not appealing and might be seen as a case of the best being the enemy of the good.

Thirdly, some argue that, like giving money to people on the street, running soup kitchens from inner city churches or providing washing and laundry facilities for homeless people, we will only encourage people to make antisocial “lifestyle choices” if we support these unconventional emergency measures.

However, without short-term responses that acknowledge the contribution of unconventional temporary and mobile forms of living, the current crisis looks set to worsen and might have more far-reaching impacts for the legitimacy of our housing system.

Paul Burton receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the City of Gold Coast. He is a member of the Planning Institute of Australia and the Urban Development Institute of Australia.

– ref. Tents, caravans and mobile homes are used after disasters, so why can’t they be solutions to our housing crisis? – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/230555

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brian Diettrich, Associate Professor of Ethnomusicology, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

Rows of dancers, bodies attired with natural fibres and adorned with fragrant oils and flowers, move in synchronous harmony. They raise their voices in song and affirm connections across the vast seaways of the Pacific.

Watching and listening are delegates and visitors from many islands. All have come to learn, to represent and to connect. Scenes such as this will be a focus when the 13th Festival of Pacific Arts & Culture – known by many simply as FestPAC – kicks off on O‘ahu in Hawai‘i today.

For the next ten days, dancers and singers, carvers and creators, storytellers and orators, scholars and educators will celebrate, demonstrate and reflect on life and culture within the vast and complex Pacific region.

With 28 Pacific nations represented, this year marks the return of FestPAC after a long hiatus due to the COVID pandemic. The eight years since 2016’s event in Guåhan (Guam) have been the longest absence since the festival’s founding in 1972.

Past and present together

Taking place every four years (except for 2020), each event sees a different location and host culture within Oceania. Delegations from most Pacific countries and states come together for an intensive and wide-ranging exchange of art forms and cultural practices.

Past festivals have focused on the endurance of ancestral traditions and legacies, in keeping with FestPAC’s established goals, as well as emphasising the preservation and revival of Indigenous languages.

But there is also an increasing focus on contemporary culture. The festival is known for its eclectic range of art forms, practices and creativity, as well as providing a forum for political ideas about cultural ownership and identity.

Indeed, the inaugural festival in 1972 was in part a response by the South Pacific Commission (now the Pacific Community) to concerns about cultural change in the region.

Described as “the world’s largest celebration of Indigenous Pacific Islanders”, it was aimed at promoting exchange among Pacific communities and cultures.

Each festival is organised around a theme. The first, in Fiji, was about “preserving culture”.

More than entertainment

The sixth festival, in 1992 in Rarotonga, featured a “seafaring heritage” theme. The significance of ocean voyaging has continued to define the festival. A key opening protocol is the dawn arrival of voyaging canoes that have made the crossing from their homelands to the host country.

At the 2016 festival on Guåhan, navigators, voyagers, builders and scholars came together for a special canoe summit that examined and affirmed the remarkable voyaging traditions of the Pacific.

Other festivals have had a focus on the survival of unique art forms and revitalisation of cultural practices. This year, the Aotearoa New Zealand delegation includes the Haumanu Collective, exponents of taonga pūoro, traditional Māori instruments.

Overall, the 2024 festival is looking toward the future with the theme of “Hoʻoulu Lāhui: Regenerating Oceania”. There’s a varied programme of ceremonies and protocol, heritage arts, performing arts, visual arts and symposiums.

But the festival also encapsulates the idea that art and cultural practices are more than just entertainment or ways to communicate aspects of ancestral heritage. They are also vehicles for unification, historical awareness and political resistance.

Political culture

FestPAC delegations have a long history of engaging with current social and political issues, including climate change and decolonisation. Global politics and regional identity often feature in various forms and forums.

During the 2004 festival on Palau, for example, host leaders invited an Indigenous delegation from Taiwan to take part as a means of emphasising the ancient Austronesian roots of the Pacific Islands. This took place against the backdrop of increasing competition for regional influence between the US and China.

The West Papuan independence struggle has also been communicated through song and performance. And this year’s festival offers a stage for Kanaka Maoli (Indigenous Hawaiians) to express solidarity within their own struggles with colonialism and militarisation.

Sadly, New Caledonia has withdrawn from the festival due to violent unrest over political representation and independence in the French territory. Nevertheless, Kanak music and song remains a vital expression of resistance and protest.

The withdrawal comes as New Caledonia is set to host the next festival in 2028. It’s a reminder of the enduring social and political struggles still happening in the region.

But as FestPAC makes a welcome return in Hawai‘i this week, there will be new opportunities for regional dialogue and solidarity across a vast yet connecting ocean. After a long wait, the past, present and future of the Pacific will come to life again in this unique and unifying event.

Brian Diettrich does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Regenerating Oceania: the ‘unique and unifying’ Festival of Pacific Arts & Culture makes a comeback – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/227548

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Ryan, Postdoctoral CERC Fellow, CSIRO

How can we explain and predict human behaviour? Are mathematics and probability up to the task, or are humans too complex and irrational?

Often, people’s actions take us by surprise, particularly when they seem irrational. Take the COVID pandemic: one thing nobody saw coming was a rush on toilet paper that left supermarket shelves bare in many countries.

But by combining ideas from mathematics, economics and behavioural science, researchers were eventually able to make mathematical models of how panic spreads between people, which made sense of the toilet paper panic.

In new research published in the Journal of the Royal Society Interface, we have taken a similar approach to the spread of disease – and showed that human reactions to the spread of disease can be as important as the behaviour of the disease itself when it comes to determining how an outbreak develops.

The power of context

One thing we know is that context can shape people’s behaviour in surprising ways. A nightly example of this is the popular TV game show Deal or No Deal, in which contestants regularly turn down offers of free money because they hope they will get a larger sum later.

If you carry out a rational calculation of the probabilities, most of the time the contestant’s “best” move is to accept the offer. But in practice, people often turn down a reasonable offer and hold out for a tiny chance at the big bucks.

Would a person refuse $5,000 if they were offered it in any other context? In this situation, straightforward maths can’t predict how people will behave.

The science of irrationality

What if we go beyond maths? Behavioural science has much to say about what drives people to take specific actions.

In this case, it might suggest people behave more reasonably if they set a realistic goal (such as getting $5,000) and position the goal in a powerful motivational context (such as planning to use the money to pay for a holiday).

Yet time and again even people with clear, achievable goals are swept up by emotion and context. At the right time and place, they will believe that luck is with them and refuse a $5,000 offer in the hope of something bigger.

Nevertheless, researchers have found ways to understand the behaviour of Deal or No Deal contestants by combining ideas from mathematics, economics and the study of behaviour around risky choices.

In essence, the researchers found contestants’ decisions are “path-dependent”. This means their choice to accept a bank offer depends not only on their goal and the odds, but also the choices they have already made.

Group behaviours

Deal or No Deal, of course, is largely about individuals making decisions in a certain context. But when we’re trying to understand the spread of disease, we’re interested in how whole groups of people behave.

This is the realm of social psychology, where group behaviours and attitudes can influence individual actions. In some ways this makes groups easier to predict, and it’s where combining mathematics and behavioural science really starts to produce results.

Although some mass behaviours at the start of the COVID pandemic were highly visible – like panic-buying toilet paper – others were not. Mobility data from Google showed people were choosing to limit their own movement, for example, before any mandated restrictions were in place.

Feedback loops

Fear and perceived risk can promote self-preservation through positive mass behaviours. For example, as more sickness appears in the community, people are more likely to act to prevent themselves getting sick.

These actions in turn have a direct impact on the spread of the disease, which further affects human behaviour, and so on. Many mathematical models of how diseases spread have failed to take this feedback loop into account.

Our new study is a step toward combining population disease spread modelling with mass behaviour modelling, aimed at understanding the links between behaviour and infection.

Our framework accounts for dynamic and self-driven protective health behaviours in the presence of an infectious disease. This puts us in a better position to make informed choices and policy recommendations for future epidemics.

Notably, our approach allows us to understand how mass behaviours influence how great a burden the disease will impose on the population in the long term. There is still much work to develop in this area.

To better understand human behaviour from a mathematical perspective, we will need better data around human choices in the presence of an infectious disease. This lets us pick out patterns that can be used for prediction.

Predicting behaviour

So, to come back to the question: can we predict human behaviour? Well, it depends. Many factors contribute to our choices: emotion, context, risk perception, social observation, fear, excitement.

Understanding which of these factors to explore with mathematics is no easy feat. However, when society faces so many challenges related to changes in mass behaviour – from infectious diseases to climate change – using mathematics to describe and predict patterns is a powerful tool.

But no single discipline can provide the answer to global challenges which need changes in human behaviour at scale. We will need more interdisciplinary teams to achieve meaningful impacts.

Matthew Ryan works for CSIRO.

Emily Brindal works for CSIRO.

Roslyn Hickson works for CSIRO and James Cook University.

– ref. What toilet paper and game shows can teach us about the spread of epidemics – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/230780

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rebecca Duncan, PhD Candidate in Polar Marine Ecology and Climate Change, University of Technology Sydney

Every day, women are working on frontier science in Earth’s unforgiving polar environments. Our study, published today in PLOS Climate, investigated what their experiences are actually like.

Fieldwork in the Arctic and Antarctica is a critical part of the scientific research that’s addressing the unprecedented challenges of global climate change. It ranges from day trips to living onboard research ships in the Arctic and Southern Oceans, to spending months at research bases in the polar regions.

Women play a critical role in just about all of it. They take on fieldwork roles from research assistant to team leader. However, our survey found women overwhelmingly report negative experiences during polar fieldwork.

Conditions need to change – institutions and fieldwork leaders have a responsibility to consider women’s needs. They also must increase accountability for problematic behaviour.

What did our survey find?

From September to November 2023, we surveyed women undertaking fieldwork in polar regions.

We received over 300 responses from around the world. The survey group, aged 18–70+, captured a range of ethnicities, life experiences and career stages.

Alarmingly, we found 79% of respondents had negative experiences while doing fieldwork in the Arctic and Antarctica. These were driven by difficult team dynamics, lack of accountability for bullying or harassment, challenges with communication and sexism.

Reprehensible conditions were reported by up to a quarter of respondents, including sexual harassment, psychosocial harm, violence, racism and homophobia.

Inherent to polar field work is close-quarter living. Only a third of respondents reported having access to personal space during fieldwork. This can be difficult at the best of times, and particularly when coupled with bullying or harassment.

Combined with poor leadership, it’s a recipe for ruin. Imagine being stuck for days, weeks or months with a toxic team culture and nowhere to turn.

It’s clear why one of the most pervasive negative experiences reported was problematic field team dynamics.

Women don’t want to appear ‘problematic’

Women caught in these circumstances frequently feel they can’t speak up. They don’t trust their report will be confidential, or don’t have access to reliable reporting structures.

Even when such structures exist, inherent cultural issues often prevent women from speaking out. Women, particularly early in their career, are concerned about being seen as “problematic” and having their opportunities limited.

Women who do report harassment often find there’s a lack of accountability and consequences for the wrongdoer, or they’re “let off the hook due to personal connections” and unbalanced power dynamics. Worse still, some women report further bullying as a result of speaking up.

Read more:
Antarctic stations are plagued by sexual harassment – it’s time for things to change

Unsurprisingly, those we surveyed reported sexism as a prevalent and deeply negative experience. While huge headway has been made since the days of polar research being dominated by white men, a lingering of male dominance prevails.

Many women report an inequity of gender roles. Women are commonly assigned an unequal load of cooking and cleaning, and constrained to more lab-based roles than their male counterparts.

Women also describe an under-expectation of their physical strength or that “male colleagues need less experience to be taken more seriously”. On a personal note, I have had scientific equipment taken from me in the field and told “this is not women’s work”.

Anecdotally, this gender bias translates into women not being offered opportunities due to concerns ranging from being “too emotional”, to their family life (or future family) getting in the way.

Even in field teams where sexism is intentionally addressed, gender bias prevails in other, less obvious ways. During fieldwork, women have difficulty managing menstruation due to lack of privacy, weather and scarcity of toilet breaks.

Some women don’t go into the field at all because of this reason, missing out on valuable learning and work opportunities.

Read more:
People stationed in Antarctica menstruate too – and it’s a struggle. Here’s how we can support them

Additionally, most equipment – such as one-piece snowsuits or frostbite face coverings – is not designed with women’s bodies in mind. This puts women at unequal risk of cold injuries.

How can we support women in polar fieldwork?

Our research identified that very few polar fieldwork expeditions had a clear code of conduct or harassment reporting structure. It is absolutely critical we fix this at an institutional level so women can safely speak up.

A good starting point is the draft code of conduct from the Association of Early Career Polar Scientists.

Prior to departure, institutions must provide mandatory training on team dynamics and equity, diversity and inclusion, particularly for people in leadership. Everyone involved should foster proactive, flexible and empathetic environments where women can advocate for themselves and others.

We found that despite negative experiences, most women wanted to continue doing polar research. It is addictive, exciting and often deeply rewarding work, necessary to understand the rapid environmental changes affecting our planet.

The stereotypical qualities of women – such as being accommodating, patient and nurturing – can be critical to thriving in extreme environments. Women belong in the Arctic and Antarctica, and all field sciences for that matter. They commonly bring a unique perspective to scientific tasks, and being a woman should never be identified as a weakness.

Read more:
White continent, white blokes: why Antarctic research needs to shed its exclusionary past

Rebecca Duncan has received funding from the Australian Government Research Training Program, AINSE Ltd. (Postgraduate Research Award) and the Research Council of Norway (Arctic Field Grant). She is a volunteer member of the Association of Polar Early Career Scientists (APECS).

– ref. A shocking 79% of female scientists have negative experiences during polar field work – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/221879

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Fernanda Mata, Research Fellow, Monash University

Late last year the federal government announced measuresmake it easier for Australians to access financial advice?

As part of this, the government wants super funds to use “nudges” to get members to engage more with their retirement investments and superannuation, especially when they’re starting work and approaching retirement.

While the legislation containing the changes is still in the consultation phase, super funds are upskilling staff and making other changes to improve customer service or risk a government crackdown.

Telling funds to use nudge theory to advise on super comes as more than five million Australians are heading towards retirement.

What is nudge theory?

Nudging is used to encourage people to pick the “better” option, without taking away their freedom to choose differently.

For example, sending regular reminders to members about the benefits of voluntary contributions can get them to increase the amount they put in. This nudge makes it easier for them to contribute more – the better option – while still allowing them to choose not to.

Assistant Treasurer Stephen Jones explained the government’s changes were needed because so-called “fin-fluencers” were providing unregulated financial advice on social media platforms to Australians unable to pay an adviser.

Helping people protect their interests

There are three ways, supported by research, nudges can help Australians engage with their super.

1. Future self visualisation

This involves getting young people to think about their future selves and visualise their life in retirement. This can help them to recognise the long-term benefits of getting actively involved with their super.

Showing fund members how they might look when older by using an ageing filter software, for example, can make this visualisation more real for them and enhance understanding of their future selves, leading to higher engagement.

2. Simplification

We all know financial products and superannuation can be complicated. The information and choices presented can lead to decision paralysis, causing people to delay or opt out of making a decision. By simplifying the process, funds can motivate people to get more engaged with their super.

To get people to make voluntary contributions, for example, it might be more effective for funds to recommend a specific percentage of their salary rather than offering several options. Deciding whether to boost contributions by an extra 3%, 4% or 5% can be overwhelming, especially for people with poor financial literacy.

3. Language and framing

The way options are framed and the language super funds use can significantly impact member engagement.

Australians may be more likely to make higher voluntary contributions if they are asked how much they want to “invest” in their super instead of how much they want to “contribute” or “add”.

The word “invest” encourages people to think about future benefits, motivating them to make higher contributions.

How options are labelled can also have an impact on member engagement and decision making.

For example, highlighting concrete benefits of different voluntary payments, such as “a 4% contribution keeps you above the poverty line”, and “a 10% contribution allows for a comfortable retirement according to Australian standards” can increase how much people are willing to contribute.

Ethical use of nudges

The Financial Services Council backs the government on getting super funds to nudge members about contributions and investments but says there are limits.

Parameters around nudging should be set […] to ensure that the language is appropriate and does not ultimately amount to defaulting.

For example, letting a customer know that as they approach retirement, they need to make a decision about what retirement product they wish to utilise would be an acceptable nudge, while contacting a customer to let them know that they will be placed in a product when they retire, would not necessarily be acceptable.

The council emphasises the importance of super funds recognising people’s autonomy when delivering a “soft” or “hard” nudge.

Soft nudges are gentle prompts and reminders designed to guide people to make good choices without pressuring them, such as sending an email reminder to review their investment options. Hard nudges are more direct in their guidance. These might include recommending specific investment options.

Despite these differences, ethical use of nudges should encourage engagement while respecting people’s autonomy by making it easy for them to opt out.

The use of nudges presents a valuable opportunity to increase superannuation fund members’ engagement.

Whether through future self visualisation, simplification or language framing, ethical nudges can motivate members to take action, leading to greater confidence in navigating the retirement transition and achieving retirement goals.

Fernanda Mata has previously received research funding from AustralianSuper.

Liam Smith has previously received funding from Australian Super.

Breanna Wright does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Super funds are using ‘nudges’ to help you make financial decisions. How do they work? – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/230404

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Garry Jennings, Professor of Medicine, University of Sydney

Nobody dies in good health, at least in their final moments. But to think the causes of death are easy to count or that there is generally a single reason somebody passes is an oversimplification.

In fact, in 2022, four out of five Australians had multiple conditions at the time of death listed on their death certificate, and almost one-quarter had five or more recorded. This is one of many key findings from a new report from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW).

The report distinguishes between three types of causes of death – underlying, direct, and contributory. An underlying cause is the condition that initiates the chain of events leading to death, such as having coronary heart disease. The direct cause of death is what the person died from (rather than with), like a heart attack. Contributory causes are things that significantly contributed to the chain of events leading to death but are not directly involved, like having high blood pressure. The report also tracks how these three types of causes can overlap in deaths involving multiple causes.

In 2022 the top five conditions involved in deaths in Australia were coronary heart disease (20% of deaths), dementia (18%), hypertension, or high blood pressure (12%), cerebrovascular disease such as stroke (11.5%), and diabetes (11.4%).

When the underlying cause of death was examined, the list was similar (coronary heart disease 10%, dementia 9%, cerebrovascular disease 5%, followed by COVID and lung cancer, each 5%). This means coronary heart disease was not just lurking at the time of death but also the major underlying cause.

The direct cause of death however was most often a lower respiratory condition (8%), cardiac or respiratory arrest (6.5%), sepsis (6%), pneumonitis, or lung inflammation (4%) or hypertension (4%).

Why is this important?

Without looking at all the contributing causes of death, the role of important factors such as coronary heart disease, sepsis, depression, high blood pressure and alcohol use can be underestimated.

Even more importantly, the various causes draw attention to the areas where we should be focusing public health prevention. The report also helps us understand which groups to focus on for prevention and health care. For example, the number one cause of death in women was dementia, whereas in men it was coronary heart disease.

People aged under 55 tended to die from external events such as accidents and violence, whereas older people died against a background of chronic disease.

We cannot prevent death, but we can prevent many diseases and injuries. And this report highlights that many of these causes of death, both for younger Australians and older, are preventable. The top five conditions involved in death (coronary heart disease, dementia, hypertension, cerebrovascular disease and diabetes) all share common risk factors such as tobacco use, high cholesterol, poor nutrition, physical inactivity, or are risk factors themselves, like hypertension or diabetes.

Tobacco use, high blood pressure, being overweight or obese and poor diet were attributable to a combined 44% of all deaths in this report. This suggests a comprehensive approach to health promotion, disease prevention and management is needed.

This should include strategies and programs encouraging eating a healthy diet, participating in regular physical activity, limiting or eliminating alcohol consumption, quitting smoking, and seeing a doctor for regular health screenings, such as the Medicare-funded Heart Health Checks. Programs directed at accident prevention, mental health and violence, especially gender-related violence, will address untimely deaths in the young.

Garry Jennings receives funding from the National Heart Foundation and The American Heart Association.

– ref. 1 in 5 deaths are caused by heart disease, but what else are Australians dying from? – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231598

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tianyi Ma, Distinguished Professor in Chemistry and Renewable Energy, RMIT University

Renewable energy sources such as wind and solar are vital tools to help us make cuts to the 36 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases we emit each year.

But renewables alone can’t get us to net zero. Sectors such as cement, steel and chemical manufacturing produce significant carbon dioxide emissions difficult to eliminate through renewable energy alone.

This is why carbon capture, utilisation and storage has a place. This technology – invented by the oil and gas industry – is the best solution we have at present to capture these emissions at their source, before they can escape to the atmosphere.

Environmentalists have long been sceptical of carbon capture, warning it could be used to prolong fossil fuel dependence. That’s a matter for policy – the science is clear. We will need to capture carbon for the time being.

While essential, the roll out of carbon capture is sluggish. As a new report shows today, we’re removing just two billion tonnes of CO₂ from the atmosphere each year – and almost all of that is by planting trees. Carbon capture accounts for less than 0.1% so far.

How does carbon capture and storage work?

The technology was first used in the 1920s to separate carbon dioxide out from methane in fossil gas deposits.

By the 1970s, it had found use in boosting oil recovery – if you separate out the CO₂, you can pump it back down into the oil field and get more out. To date, the world’s largest carbon capture operation is in Western Australia, where Chevron is pumping carbon dioxide filtered from natural gas back underground%20facility%20on%20Barrow%20Island.). This history is why there’s been so much scepticism about the technology.

This is not entirely fair. The technology itself is neutral. If we detach it from its history, we can better assess its worth.

What carbon capture and storage offers is the ability to capture carbon dioxide emitted by the manufacture of cement and iron/steel. Together these account for about 15% of the world’s emissions total (8% and 7.2% respectively).

Once we capture carbon dioxide, we can use it in industrial processes such as chemical synthesis and food preservation. This approach can cut emissions while adding value, if waste CO₂ can be used for valuable products.

Alternatively, it can be stored in deep underground in stable geological formations such as porous sandstone capped with impermeable rock, or salt caverns, either natural or human-made. Here, it should stay for hundreds of years as gas. In some locations, carbon dioxide can react with minerals to form stable carbonates, effectively turning CO₂ into rock.

Carbon capture and storage can be added reasonably easily to existing infrastructure such as fossil fuel power plants, oil and gas fields and gas compression stations, offering a transitional pathway towards clean energy.

Retrofitting existing plants with capture and storage technology can significantly reduce emissions without the need to immediately decommission still-functional power plants.

What if carbon capture is a fig leaf?

Critics of carbon capture argue the technology will likely be used to prolong the use of fossil fuels rather than phase them out as quickly as possible. In this view, carbon capture would be used by fossil fuel plant operators and companies as a way to make coal or gas “green”, and delay the full transition.

This concern is valid. There is a risk leaders in fossil-fuel intensive industries might see capture and storage as a way to continue their operations with less pressure to innovate or reduce their reliance on fossil fuels, just as some have embraced carbon offsets to avoid fundamental change.

But again, this doesn’t mean we should discard the technology. While we now have good options for making electricity without emissions, we don’t yet have many options in tackling industrial emissions. While methods of making steel and cement without fossil fuels are emerging, change is slow and the problem of climate change is urgent.

Authorities from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to the International Energy Agency see an unavoidable role for carbon capture and storage.

The European Union’s Green Deal emphasises the role of carbon capture in cutting industrial emissions, while the United States has introduced tax credits and funding to accelerate its adoption.

Australia’s government last year invited companies to explore ten offshore sedimentary basins for possible carbon storage. But not everywhere is suitable – Queensland’s government recently banned the technology anywhere inside the Great Artesian Basin, due to concerns over the impact of the gas on groundwater.

How can we make best use of the technology?

For carbon capture and storage to grow to the size we need, it will need effective policy support such as tax credits, subsidies, and funding for research and development to drive innovation and cut costs.

In my research, I have worked with industry partners to find ways of making carbon capture useful. If a waste product has value, there’s an immediate incentive to capture it. For instance, I’ve worked on converting carbon dioxide into “solar fuels” such as green methane and methanol.

We might think the future of energy will be solar, wind and storage. But it’s not going to be that simple. Fossil fuels will be harder to wean ourselves off than we realise. We’ll need green hydrogen for industrial uses and to make ammonia for green fertilisers. And we’ll have to ramp up carbon capture and storage for industrial emissions.

We might not like the idea of carbon capture and storage, but we will need it if we are going to get serious about net zero. At present, there’s nothing else like it for hard-to-abate sectors. What we must avoid is using it to prop up fossil fuels.

Tianyi Ma receives funding from Australian Research Council (ARC) and Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA).

– ref. Yes, carbon capture and storage is controversial – but it’s going to be crucial – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/230122

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Talitha Best, Professor of Psychology, CQUniversity Australia

Last month, Ballarat Clarendon College began a trial to ban water bottles in the classroom for students in Years 5 to 9. According to the school, “early feedback” indicated it had reduced noise and bathroom breaks during class time.

Along with becoming a status symbol and fashion item, water bottles are now considered essential for school.

So how much water do children need in a day? And what impact does it have on their brains?

How much fluid do children and teenagers need?

The amount of fluid children need will depend on the weather and how much physical activity they do. But as a general guide:

• children aged four to eight should have about 1.2 litres per day

• boys nine to 13 should have 1.6 litres

• girls nine to 13 should have 1.4 litres

• boys over 14 should have 1.9 litres

• girls over 14 should have 1.6 litres.

As the Australian Dietary Guidelines stress, it is preferable to meet most fluid needs by drinking plain water. If your child does not like drinking water you could consider adding a squeeze of juice.

Research suggests many school-aged children do not drink enough and arrive at school already dehydrated. A 2017 study involving 6,469 children (aged four to 17) from 13 countries (not including Australia) found 60% of children and 75% of adolescents did not consume enough water from fluids.

How often do they need to drink?

There is no specific advice about how often children and adolescents need to drink. But the main message from research is students need to start drinking from the time they get up.

Having a drink of water first thing in the morning regulates the body and brain to use water well, setting up mental performance for the rest of the day.

Research also tells us children need to keep drinking substantial amounts of water (about 250-300ml) throughout the day, rather than just taking little sips here and there to keep the brain in a hydrated state.

Why is water so important for our brains?

About 75% of all brain mass is water and our brains need water to keep working.

Among other functions, water helps brain cells and tissue to balance hormone levels, maintain proper blood flow and deliver vitamins, minerals and oxygen to your brain.

Even mild levels of dehydration can increase levels of the hormone cortisol, which can lead to feeling nervous, tense and irritable. This can muddle up the brain’s processing of information as well as our energy levels, emotions and behaviour.

So if students are adequately hydrated it sets up their brains to be in an optimal state to concentrate and pay attention at school.

How can water help learning?

Beyond helping our bodies to function, research also shows drinking water can help our brains to learn.

A 2020 study of German children in Year 5 and 6 showed those who had at least 50% of their daily water requirements (about 1 litre) over a four hour period in the morning had better memory performance overall.

The research showed children’s ability to pay attention to visual information was much better after drinking water, compared to no water.

A 2019 US study looked at the the impact of water on young people’s “cognitive flexibility”. This is the capacity to think about multiple concepts at the same time or quickly switch thinking between two concepts.

Over four days, children aged nine to eleven were given different amounts to drink. Those who drank up to 2.5 litres of water over 24 hours (even more than the recommended adequate amount) were better at switching between mental tasks compared to those who drank lesser amounts.

Water as part of children’s routines

Having other regular moments for drinking water can also help create steady routines for children and young people. Routines are an important way to manage attention, emotions and behaviour.

Water breaks don’t necessarily need to be during class time (particularly if schools are finding them disruptive). But they do need to be at predictable times during the day.

So, having a drink of water when kids wake up, at meal times, when kids get to school, at the start or end of classes and when they get home can all provide useful anchor points.

Talitha Best is a clinical psychologist in private practice. She is a member of the Australian Psychological Society and Australian Institute of Company Directors.

– ref. Hydration is really important for learning. How much do kids need to drink? – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231485

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alison Cole, Composer and Lecturer in Screen Composition, Sydney Conservatorium of Music, University of Sydney

In June 1994 the late composer Evangelos Odysseas Papathanassiou – better known as Vangelis – released his soundtrack for the 1982 film Blade Runner. It would go on to become emblematic of his skills, with only a handful of soundtracks reaching a similar level of cult status.

Prior to this, sci-fi film scores tended to be characterised by orchestral sound palettes. For instance, John Williams’ 1991 Star Wars soundtrack leaned on the London Symphony Orchestra to communicate the vastness of a galaxy far, far away.

Vangelis, on the other hand, used an electronic approach to bring a subtlety and complexity that shifted the focus inwards. His ability to communicate deep emotion, alongside expansive philosophical concepts, was perhaps his greatest achievement with Blade Runner.

Missing pieces

Director Ridley Scott’s Blade Runner was adapted from Phillip K. Dick’s 1968 sci-fi novel Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? – which itself was a thoughtful examination of empathy and what it means to be human. The emotional gravitas of the original story, along with Vangelis’ accompanying timbral exploration, created an aural experience that was new to sci-fi films at the time.

Vangelis began work on the score in 1981. He received edited footage scene-by-scene on VHS tapes and created live takes in his studio with his synthesiser collection.

However, the first official soundtrack was delayed some 12 years after the film’s release, due to what was reportedly an ongoing disagreement with producers.

When it finally was released, purists viewed it as more of an album than a soundtrack. They criticised it for not having much of the music used in the original film, and for including pieces that never appeared in the film, such as Main Titles and Blush Response.

While the 2007 version (a 25th anniversary edition) included some unreleased material, parts of the original soundtrack remain unreleased even today.

A symmetry between newness and nostalgia

By emphasising longer drawn out notes, rather than thick instrumental combinations, Vangelis thoughtfully taps into the atmosphere of Scott’s visual world to create something truly unique.

Early sci-fi movies such as Forbidden Planet (1956) and The Day The Earth Stood Still (1951) often used electronic instruments developed in the early to mid-1900s, such as the theremin and the modular synthesiser. While these instruments helped augment concepts such as aliens, spaceships and robots, they did this somewhat simplistically.

A more sophisticated perspective pervades through Blade Runner, which combines film-noir instrumentation with classical, electronic, jazz and Middle Eastern music genres.

Specifically, Vangelis leverages the different sound qualities of synthesisers – such as bright and airy, thin and cold, or dark and thick – to at once capture emotion and highlight the complex ideas in the film’s narrative. In the final act, expansive synths dominate as the film reaches an intellectual and emotional climax.

While the synthesisers lend an artificial timbre to the score, the musicality simultaneously communicates life and feeling. In this way the foreign and familiar became enmeshed.

The film’s retro costuming and brutalist architecture also set up an expectation for the soundtrack. At times, the score will meaningfully go against this expectation by delving into a more nostalgic sound. The track Love Theme is a perfect example.

Innovative takes

Vangelis’ innovative use of dialogue in the soundtrack also helped to translate the complexities of the human condition. The tracks Main Titles, Blush Response, Wait for Me and Tears in Rain all feature dialogue in a way that makes them feel like a part of the film’s DNA.

The soundtrack’s arrangement was also uncommon for its time, as it mirrored the action narrative sequence. Tracks 1 through 4 are mixed as a single ongoing track. Tracks 5 through 7 are separated by silence, while tracks 8 through to 12 are also combined into a single piece. While this technique is common in electronic composition now, it was unique at the time.

The films dark, fraught and sad dystopian themes are further highlighted through collaborations with Welsh singer Mary Hopkins in Rachel’s Song, and Greek singer Demis Roussos in Tales of the Future.

Today, the Blade Runner soundtrack remains the most beloved of Vangelis’ works by his ardent fans – and it continues to commands its place in the 20th-century electronic music canon.

Alison Cole does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Blade Runner soundtrack at 30: how Vangelis used electronic music to explore what it means to be human – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/221604

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Maria O’Sullivan, Associate Professor of Law, Deakin Law School, Deakin University

Australia’s eSafety Commissioner has dropped its Federal Court case against X relating to tweets distributing the footage of the Wakeley church stabbing.

In response to the decision, X’s owner, billionaire Elon Musk, tweeted “freedom of speech is worth fighting for”.

This case goes to a central question about the operation of Australia’s Online Safety Act and the powers of the regulator to remove harmful content.

It will no doubt be viewed with interest by other online safety regulators across the world who are also grappling with these issues. That is, how can governments control the distribution of harmful online material within a country when the internet is global? Do global takedowns unfairly limit free speech? Does “geo-blocking” strike an acceptable balance between restricting harmful content and free speech?

Read more:
eSafety commissioner drops court effort to force Elon Musk to put international ban on stabbing video

What was the case about?

In April, the eSafety Commissioner issued X with a removal notice instructing it to take “all reasonable steps” to take down videos of the stabbings. A central consideration in issuing the notice was that the New South Wales Commissioner of Police had described the stabbing as a terrorist incident.

X “geo-blocked” (blocking content depending on location) the video for Australian audiences but refused to impose a wider global ban. The eSafety Commissioner viewed this as a failure to abide by its removal notice, and commenced proceedings in the Federal Court.

A central question in the case was whether the geo-blocking of material to stop Australian users accessing the content constitutes the taking of “all reasonable steps” under the legislation when that material is globally available.

In a hearing before the Federal Court in May, the barrister for the Commissioner had stated that in order for X to take “all reasonable steps” there had to be a global ban. They pointed to the ease of buying a VPN (virtual private network) to avoid the domestic takedown.

Why did the eSafety Commissioner drop the case?

The eSafety Commissioner cited the prudent use of public funds as one of the reasons for dropping the case, as it also has other litigation in the Administrative Appeals Tribunal.

Although this is a legitimate consideration, it was also obvious the argument for a global ban on the material was a difficult one to make given that it would operate outside Australia.

While Musk has been calling this a victory, it is only the case for a global ban that has been dropped. The removal notice stands pending X’s review and it may very well be that the geo-blocking will remain. At least in Australia, posting a video of a stabbing may still be treated as beyond accepted community standards.

While the Online Safety Act allows for local authorities to issue an extraterritorial order, whether that extends to issuing a global ban is an open question. Even if a global order can be made under the act, it may not mean much in practice. Countries regulate free speech within their own jurisdictions and take their own position as to what is legitimate free speech and what is harmful content.

A court in another country may take a dim view of a global order and not enforce it in their jurisdiction. But another country may also decide to ban the content under their own laws.

What happens next?

Even though the Federal Court case has been discontinued, the regulation of social media in Australia continues to be a central focus of political and legal debate.

In addition to the litigation between the commissioner and X in other tribunals, there are two major reviews occurring in the next few months: a review of the Online Safety Act and a Parliamentary Inquiry into Social Media. These will examine some of the legal issues that would have been considered by the Federal Court, such as the regulation of harmful content disseminated over social media.

However, it would have been preferable to have a court ruling on these issues, particularly as there is uncertainty about key parts of the Online Safety Act.

Read more:
Investigating social media harm is a good idea, but parliament is about to see how complicated it is to fix

Internationally, online safety is also being tested and debated in other countries. For instance, the UK Online Safety Act has been criticised for unduly limiting free speech. These are therefore matters calling for international cooperation.

Looking ahead, it is becoming increasingly apparent the power of tech companies is affecting the ability of safety regulators to constrain their activities. The Australian eSafety Commissioner described X as “consistently non-compliant”.

Whatever view is taken of the arguments made in the Federal Court case, the power wielded by tech companies and their ability to circumvent Australian law should be a central concern of the Australian government going forward.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Elon Musk says he won a battle for free speech in court, but it won’t stop the war for social media regulation – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/228885

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Manisha Caleb, Lecturer, University of Sydney

When astronomers turn our radio telescopes out towards space, we sometimes detect sporadic bursts of radio waves originating from across the vast expanse of the universe. We call them “radio transients”: some erupt only once, never to be seen again, and others flicker on and off in predictable patterns.

We think most radio transients come from rotating neutron stars known as pulsars, which emit regular flashes of radio waves, like cosmic lighthouses. Typically, these neutron stars spin at incredible speeds, taking mere seconds or even a fraction of a second to complete each rotation.

Recently, we discovered a radio transient that isn’t like anything astronomers have seen before. Not only does it have a cycle almost an hour long (the longest ever seen), but over several observations we saw it sometimes emitting long, bright flashes, sometimes fast, weak pulses – and sometimes nothing at all.

We can’t quite explain what’s going on here. It’s most likely a very unusual neutron star, but we can’t rule out other possibilities. Our research is published in Nature Astronomy.

A lucky find

Meet ASKAP J1935+2148 (the numbers in the name point to its location in the sky). This periodic radio transient was discovered using CSIRO’s ASKAP radio telescope on Wajarri Yamaji Country in outback Western Australia.

The telescope has a very wide field of view, which means it can survey large volumes of the universe very quickly. This makes it very well suited for detecting new and exotic phenomena.

Using ASKAP, we were simultaneously monitoring a source of gamma rays and searching for pulses from a fast radio burst, when we spotted ASKAP J1935+2148 slowly flashing in the data. The signal leapt out because it was made up of “circularly polarised” radio waves, which means the direction of the waves corkscrews around as the signal travels through space.

Our eyes cannot differentiate between circularly polarised light and ordinary unpolarised light. However, ASKAP functions like a pair of polaroid sunglasses, filtering out the glare from thousands of ordinary sources.

After the initial detection, we conducted further observations over several months using ASKAP and also the more sensitive MeerKAT radio telescope in South Africa.

The slowest radio transient ever found

ASKAP J1935+2148 belongs to the relatively new class of long-period radio transients. Only two others have ever been found, and ASKAP J1935+2148’s 53.8 minute period is by far the longest.

However, the exceptionally long period is just the beginning. We have seen ASKAP J1935+2148 in three distinct states or modes.

In the first state, we see bright, linearly (rather than circularly) polarised pulses lasting from 10 to 50 seconds. In the second state, there are much weaker, circularly polarised pulses lasting only about 370 milliseconds. The third state is a quiet or quenched state, with no pulses at all.

These different modes, and the switching between them, could result from an interplay of complex magnetic fields and plasma flows from the source itself with strong magnetic fields in the surrounding space.

Similar patterns have been seen in neutron stars, but our current understanding of neutron stars suggests they should not be able to have such a long period.

Neutron stars and white dwarfs

The origin of a signal with such a long period remains a profound mystery, with a slow-spinning neutron star the prime suspect. However, we cannot rule out the possibility the object is a white dwarf – the Earth-sized cinder of a burnt-out star that has exhausted its fuel.

White dwarfs often have slow rotation periods, but we don’t know of any way one could produce the radio signals we are seeing here. What’s more, there are no other highly magnetic white dwarfs nearby, which makes the neutron star explanation more plausible.

One explanation might be that the object is part of a binary system in which a neutron star or white dwarf orbits another unseen star.

This object might prompt us to reconsider our decades-old understanding of neutron stars or white dwarfs, particularly in how they emit radio waves and what their populations are like within our galaxy. Further research is needed to confirm what the object is, but either scenario would provide valuable insights into the physics of these extreme objects.

The search continues

We don’t know how long ASKAP J1935+2148 has been emitting radio signals, as radio astronomy surveys don’t usually search for objects with periods this long. Moreover, radio emissions from this source are only detected for a mere 0.01% to 1.5% of its rotation period, depending on its emission state.

So we were quite fortunate we happened to catch sight of ASKAP J1935+2148. It’s quite likely there are many other objects like it elsewhere in our galaxy, waiting to be discovered.

Manisha Caleb acknowledges support of an Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Research Award (project number DE220100819) funded by the Australian Government. Parts of this research were conducted by the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Gravitational Wave Discovery (OzGrav), project number CE170100004.

Emil Lenc does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. A strange intermittent radio signal from space has astronomers puzzled – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231385

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Hall, Professor of International Relations, Griffith University

Most pundits and exit polls predicted a big win for Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in India’s massive six-week election that just came to a close.

They were wrong. Instead, many voters in key battleground states cast their ballots for opposition parties, cutting the BJP’s tally of seats in the Lok Sabha, the lower hour of parliament, from 303 to 240.

Together with their coalition partners, the BJP should retain power with a slim majority of 21 seats. Modi will serve a rare third term as India’s prime minister. But for the first time in a decade, both the prime minister and his party no longer look invincible.

So, what went wrong?

It will be a while before detailed post-election surveys are published, with robust data on why Indians voted as they did. But from what we already know, we can identify a few factors that might explain why support for the BJP has waned.

The BJP went into the election campaign claiming great successes in economic management. Under the stewardship of the Modi government, as the party’s manifesto declared, India has emerged as the fastest-growing major economy in the world. It is currently ranked number five and Modi had set the ambitious goal of rising to third by the end of the decade.

The BJP had made other big promises for a third Modi term: to make India more self-reliant and resilient to global shocks, as well as to improve its infrastructure, generate more power and attract more foreign investment in manufacturing.

Yet, what it lacked – and what may have swayed some voters – was a credible plan to boost employment and curb inflation. The BJP’s track record in both areas is not good.

India needs to create jobs for tens of millions of young and ambitious Indians entering the workforce ever year, but it has struggled to do that in recent years. This has led many to move abroad, even to countries in conflict zones.

Moreover, it needs to stabilise prices, which have increased at annual rate of 5–6% in recent years.

Fear and favour

Another issue that likely swayed some voters was the possible fate of positive discrimination schemes for education and public sector employment known as “caste reservations”.

Designed to improve social mobility for historically marginalised caste groups and communities, these schemes have become politically contentious in a society where good schools and good jobs are scarce.

The BJP has long been ideologically sceptical about reservations, arguing – among other things – they are socially divisive, pitting caste against caste and community against community.

Some Hindu nationalists also see these schemes as standing in the way of consolidating all Hindus into one unassailable social and political bloc.

During the election campaign, these arguments were highlighted by opposition parties, which claimed the BJP planned to abolish reservations or even amend India’s Constitution to ban them outright.

And it seems that fear this might have prompted many lower caste Indians to switch their votes to parties pledging to defend reservations, like the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh.

Modi fatigue

A third factor shaping voter behaviour may well prove to be a loss of enthusiasm for Modi himself.

Modi’s personal popularity has remained very high by both Indian and global standards for more than a decade – and for good reason.

He is a charismatic and effective communicator, but his capacity for reinventing his image has arguably been his greatest asset. At different points in his career, he has been able to project himself as a firebrand, a technocratic moderniser, a humble servant of the people and an adroit diplomat.

Recently, however, Modi has cast himself as a distant, almost priestly and otherworldly figure. In the days before the election results were announced this week, the prime minister withdrew to a beach to meditate for 45 hours. In interviews, he has spoken of being chosen by god for his role.

These actions led at least one opposition leader to comment that Modi was saying “all kinds of things that made no sense”. Some voters may have shared that view.

Modi’s broader Hindu project in doubt

For ten years, the BJP has also worked hard to establish a dominant position in India’s political system. To win over voters, it has improved infrastructure in the cities and extended India’s rudimentary welfare state to improve the lives of women and the rural poor.

Ultimately, however, the BJP aims not just to develop India, but to ensure all aspects of Indian society reflect what it sees as the values of the Hindu majority.

To do that, the Modi government has tried to unite all Hindu voters – around 80% of the population – with high-profile religious and cultural appeals, like the construction of a much-vaunted new Ram temple at the holy city of Ayodhya.

The result of this election suggests this project has not – so far, at least – succeeded. In a striking development, the BJP failed to hold the parliamentary seat (Faizabad) where Ayodhya is located.

It is not yet clear what lessons Modi and the BJP will take from this election. Tethered to coalition partners with more leverage than before, the incoming government will be more constrained than its predecessors. As the dust settles, one thing is clear: this election has transformed India’s political landscape.

Ian Hall receives funding from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. He is an honorary fellow of the Australia India Institute.

– ref. Has the tide finally turned for Narendra Modi after his party’s disappointing election result in India? – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/229890

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gary Edmond, Professor of Law, UNSW Sydney

The conviction of Robert Farquharson for the murder of his three sons on Father’s Day 2005 is being questioned in the media, with doubts raised about the reliability of prosecution’s medical, traffic reconstruction and sinking vehicle evidence.

This case has echoes of Henry Keogh, David Eastman and Lindy Chamberlain. Their murder convictions were overturned when scientific and medical testimony from their trials was eventually found to be unreliable.

The handling of expert opinion evidence by Australian courts is in a crisis. Curiously, our courts appear oblivious. They use forensic science evidence without regard for the best scientific advice.

Australian courts ignore criteria recommended by peak scientific organisations such as the United States National Academy of Sciences and the Australian Academy of Sciences (AAS). The chief executive of the AAS, Anna-Maria Arabia, has warned that our courts are susceptible to “junk science”. Why is this happening and what can we do?

A lack of formal validation

Unlike most witnesses who can only testify as to facts, experts are allowed to express opinions based on “specialised knowledge” that would otherwise be unavailable to the court. Prosecutions frequently rely on expert evidence such as DNA profiles, fingerprint comparisons and post-mortem reports.

Problematically, courts fail to insist on formal validation of the experts’ methods before their opinions are admitted. In 2009 the US National Academy of Sciences concluded that, apart from DNA,

no forensic method has been rigorously shown to […] consistently, and with a high degree of certainty, demonstrate a connection between evidence and a specific individual or source.

The academy expressed concerns about the accuracy of expert comparisons of fingerprints, ballistics, hairs, handwriting, bite marks, explosives, paints and blood stains.

Scientists have been working hard to enhance forensic sciences in the aftermath of the report. While there have been validation studies and practical improvements in some areas, subsequent independent reports have typically remained critical in their evaluations.

For example, fingerprint examiners were shown to be accurate but not infallible, as was claimed historically. Their error rate is roughly 1 in 400.

Other comparison procedures fared less well. For example, despite formal qualifications in dentistry and forensic experience, forensic dentists can’t reliably link a bite mark on human skin with specific teeth. Indeed, they can’t even determine whether marks on skin are bite marks.

Bad science in the courtroom

Australian courts don’t have rules, procedures and personnel that can effectively regulate the admission of these types of evidence.

Forensic scientists can implicate defendants without reference to validation studies and without appropriate caveats. Courts are often shielded from error rates and scientific criticism. Little account is taken of the risk evidence is biased by examiners’ exposure to information implicating the suspect, and examiners’ close relations with prosecutors.

Australian courts have also ignored recent scientific reports and academic demands that we need to tighten the rules for what evidence is admitted in court.

Rules require expert opinion to be substantially based on “specialised knowledge”, but this doesn’t involve the reliability of that knowledge.

Australian courts tend to rely on proxies for specialised knowledge. These can be general qualifications, job titles, experience, previous appearances in court and the plausibility of the expert’s interpretation.

No one in court – neither prosecutors, expert witnesses, nor trial and appellate judges – addresses the all-important questions: can the expert do it? How well? And how do we know? As a consequence, “junk science” is routinely admitted, leading to incurable unfairness and even wrongful convictions.

Defence counsel are also at fault. Australia’s leading advocates are rarely effective in cross-examining forensic scientists about the validity and accuracy of their opinions.

American legal scholar John Henry Wigmore said cross examination is “the greatest legal engine ever invented for the discovery of truth”. But it consistently fails, as have other adversarial mechanisms, such as opposing witnesses and judicial directions.

Expert evidence of dubious reliability is regularly admitted and left to the jury to somehow evaluate.

Ignorance isn’t an excuse

Perhaps the criminal justice system’s scientific ignorance shouldn’t be surprising. This ignorance is the very reason we need expert evidence.

But lawyers and judges can become complacent toward their critical abilities and the effectiveness of traditional legal rules, procedures and safeguards. (This complacency contributed to the failure of the 2019 inquiry to correct Kathleen Folbigg’s wrongful conviction.)

The very reason for holding a trial is that we don’t know if the defendant is guilty. But this unknown and the finality of a jury verdict means we don’t tend to get meaningful feedback on the system’s effectiveness (or lack thereof).

Evidence-based reform is urgently needed. We should impose an explicit reliability standard on all expert opinion evidence. Courts need to understand the limitations of forensic science and medicine evidence. Their proud legal traditions should not insulate them from the chorus of advice from peak scientific bodies.

The federal government should create an independent multidisciplinary panel to provide scientific assistance on controversial subjects such as CCTV and voice identification, or whether there are reliable means of identifying abusive infant head trauma.

Finally, Australian governments should also establish an independent Criminal Cases Review Commission to uncover and refer potential wrongful convictions back for further appeal.

Such a body, operating outside the traditional adversarial system, may help persuade complacent criminal courts that seemingly damning “expert” evidence should not always be taken at face value.

Gary Edmond receives funding from ARC.

David Hamer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘Junk science’ is being used in Australian courtrooms, and wrongful convictions are at stake – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231480

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The eSafety Commissioner has abandoned the legal case to try to force X – formerly Twitter – to remove footage of the April stabbing attack on a Sydney bishop from the platform worldwide.

This follows a federal court ruling in May rejecting eSafety’s argument for a ban globally. The judge ruled such a ban would not be a “reasonable” step because it would likely “be ignored or disparaged in other countries”, and took issue with the attempt to regulate the global internet.

Elon Musk’s X blocked the video for Australian audiences as a result of the commissioner’s order but refused to impose a wider ban.

In a statement on Wednesday the commissioner, Julie Inman Grant, said she had decided to discontinue the federal court proceedings and instead welcomed the opportunity for an independent review by the Administrative Appeal Tribunal of her decision to issue a removal notice.

“Our sole goal and focus in issuing our removal notice was to prevent this extremely violent footage from going viral, potentially inciting further violence and inflicting more harm on the Australian community. I stand by my investigators and the decisions eSafety made.

“Most Australians accept this kind of graphic material should not be on broadcast television, which begs an obvious question of why it should be allowed to be distributed freely and accessible online 24/7 to anyone, including children,” she said.

Inman Grant said a key concern for her had been “the ease by which children were able to access this extremely violent stabbing video on X.

“As the national online safety regulator, I expect responsible companies to be taking action in relation to this type of content.”

Her announcement came as News Corp Australasia Executive Chairman Michael Miller strongly attacked big tech companies and said they should made to pay “a social licence.”

“This social license would be a package of laws and requirements that Tech monopolies would need to meet if they want access to Australian consumers,” he said.

“Under this license, the Australian government would be able to make the platforms liable for all content that is amplified, curated, and controlled by their algorithms or recommender engines – no hiding behind Section 230 in Australia.

“The licence should require that each platform has an effective consumer complaints handling system, including call centres contactable by telephone with expert staff in Australia.”

Miller said the licence should also include a contribution to the money being spent on mental health problems and a requirement to honour the media bargaining code for compensating publishers and media companies for using their content.

He said penalties should include crime sanctions for companies and executives that agreed to the licence but then broke the rules.

They should also include “the power to ultimately block access to our country and our people if they refuse to play by our rules,” Miller told the National Press Club.

“Companies wanting to do business here also have to meet our standards and sign up to our rules, laws and expectations. But the global tech monopolies that have changed our lives and our nation choose not to meet those standards.

“They refuse to play by our rules. These Tech giants – especially social media networks such as Meta, TikTok and X – operate outside our legal system.

“We know the collective damage they cause – to our young and elderly,
businesses, big and small, to our democracy, and to our economy.

“How long will Australia allow them to operate as a protected species? It’s been long enough.”

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. eSafety commissioner drops court effort to force Elon Musk to put international ban on stabbing video – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231701

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Diepstraten, Senior Research Officer, Blood Cells and Blood Cancer Division, Walter and Eliza Hall Institute

More than 16,000 Australians will be diagnosed with melanoma each year. Most of these will be caught early, and can be cured by surgery.

However, for patients with advanced or metastatic melanoma, which has spread from the skin to other organs, the outlook was bleak until the advent of targeted therapies (that attack specific cancer traits) and immune therapies (that leverage the immune system). Over the past decade, these treatments have seen a significant climb in the number of advanced melanoma patients surviving for at least five years after diagnosis, from less than 10% in 2011 to around 50% in 2021.

While this is great news, there are still many melanoma patients who cannot be treated effectively with current therapies. Researchers have developed two exciting new therapies that are being evaluated in clinical trials for advanced melanoma patients. Both involve the use of immunotherapy at different times and in different ways.

The first results from these trials are now being shared publicly, offering insight into the future of melanoma treatment.

Immunotherapy before surgery

Immunotherapy works by boosting the power of a patient’s immune system to help kill cancer cells. One type of immunotherapy uses something called “immune checkpoint inhibitors”.

Immune cells carry “immune checkpoint” proteins, which control their activity. Cancer cells can interact with these checkpoints to turn off immune cells and hide from the immune system. Immune checkpoint inhibitors block this interaction and help keep the immune system activated to fight the cancer.

Results from an ongoing phase 3 trial using immune checkpoint inhibitors were recently published in the New England Journal of Medicine.

This trial used two types of immune checkpoint inhibitors: nivolumab, which blocks an immune checkpoint called PD-1, and ipilimumab, which blocks CTLA-4.

Some 423 patients (including many from Australia) were enrolled in the trial, and participants were randomly assigned to one of two groups.

The first group had surgery to remove their melanoma, and were then given immunotherapy (nivolumab) to help kill any remaining cancer cells. Giving a systemic (whole body) therapy such as immunotherapy after surgery is a standard way of treating melanoma. The second group received immunotherapy first (nivolumab plus ipilimumab) and then underwent surgery. This is a new approach to treating these cancers.

Based on previous observations, the researchers had predicted that giving patients immunotherapy while the whole tumour was still present would activate the tumour-fighting abilities of the patient’s immune system much better than giving it once the tumour had been removed.

Sure enough, 12 months after starting therapy, 83.7% of patients who received immunotherapy before surgery remained cancer-free, compared to 57.2% in the control group who received immunotherapy after surgery.

Based on these results, Australian of the year Georgina Long – who co-led the trial with Christian Blank from The Netherlands Cancer Institute – has suggested this method of immunotherapy before surgery should be considered a new standard of treatment for higher risk stage 3 melanoma. She also said a similar strategy should be evaluated for other cancers.

The promising results of this phase 3 trial suggest we might see this combination treatment being used in Australian hospitals within the next few years.

mRNA vaccines

Another emerging form of melanoma therapy is the post-surgery combination of a different checkpoint inhibitor (pembrolizumab, which blocks PD-1), with a messenger RNA vaccine (mRNA-4157).

While checkpoint inhibitors like pembrolizumab have been around for more than a decade, mRNA vaccines like mRNA-4157 are a newer phenomenon. You might be familiar with mRNA vaccines though, as the biotechnology companies Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna released COVID vaccines based on mRNA technology.

mRNA-4157 works basically the same way – the mRNA is injected into the patient and produces antigens, which are small proteins that train the body’s immune system to attack a disease (in this case, cancer, and for COVID, the virus).

However, mRNA-4157 is unique – literally. It’s a type of personalised medicine, where the mRNA is created specifically to match a patient’s cancer. First, the patient’s tumour is genetically sequenced to figure out what antigens will best help the immune system to recognise their cancer. Then a patient-specific version of mRNA-4157 is created that produces those antigens.

The latest results of a three-year, phase 2 clinical trial which combined pembrolizumab and mRNA-4157 were announced this past week. Overall, 2.5 years after starting the trial, 74.8% of patients treated with immunotherapy combined with mRNA-4157 post-surgery remained cancer-free, compared to 55.6% of those treated with immunotherapy alone. These were patients who were suffering from high-risk, late-stage forms of melanoma, who generally have poor outcomes.

It’s worth noting these results have not yet been published in peer-reviewed journals. They’re available as company announcements, and were also presented at some cancer conferences in the United States.

Based on the results of this trial, the combination of pembrolizumab and the vaccine progressed to a phase 3 trial in 2023, with the first patients being enrolled in Australia. But the final results of this trial are not expected until 2029.

It is hoped this mRNA-based anti-cancer vaccine will blaze a trail for vaccines targeting other types of cancer, not just melanoma, particularly in combination with checkpoint inhibitors to help stimulate the immune system.

Despite these ongoing advances in melanoma treatment, the best way to fight cancer is still prevention which, in the case of melanoma, means protecting yourself from UV exposure wherever possible.

Read more:
What are these ‘cancer vaccines’ I’m hearing about? And what similarities do they share with COVID vaccines?

Sarah Diepstraten receives funding from the Victorian Cancer Agency.

John (Eddie) La Marca is also affiliated with the Olivia Newton-John Cancer Research Institute. He has previously received funding from the CASS Foundation.

– ref. From immunotherapy to mRNA vaccines – the latest science on melanoma treatment explained – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231595

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Freya Higgins-Desbiolles, Adjunct Senior Lecturer in Tourism Management/ Adjunct Associate Professor, University of South Australia

Miami-based cruise operator Carnival Corporation has announced it will retire its P&O Cruises Australia brand in March 2025.

The decision marks the end of the line for an iconic cruise brand in Australia and the Pacific, after nearly a century of operations.

Parent company Carnival has been on a campaign of international growth through acquisitions and mergers since at least 1989. P&O Cruises Australia was bought by the company in 2003.

Many Australians might remember the brand’s iconic television advertisements from the 1980s and ‘90s that encouraged them to escape the rat race.

But the reality of cruising’s international consolidation leaves little room for such nostalgia and national brand attachment.

Still, cruising is a big part of Australia’s tourism sector, and cruises are a large source of inbound visitors. The Australian Cruise Association estimates the industry’s total economic contribution is as high as $5.63 billion.

Australians are hungry for cruise ship experiences. They make up the fourth largest source market for passengers, at 1.25 million last year.

Australia is a tough place to make a profit

A recent report by Cruise Lines International Association painted a picture of a thriving industry. New, bigger ships are being rolled out to meet a growing market of both new and loyal cruise enthusiasts.

So why are operators struggling here? P&O hasn’t been the only brand facing difficulties down under.

P&O’s sister line Cunard recently announced it will stop basing itself in Australia from 2026, and Virgin Voyages’ Resilient Lady has cancelled plans for a second sailing season here next summer.

Carnival said its decision on P&O Australia came down to the region’s “significantly higher operating and regulatory costs” and small population. The company said it had been forced to change its operating approach to achieve “efficiencies”.

The cruise sector was hit hard by the pandemic. In early 2020, Carnival reported a staggering single quarter net loss of $4.4 billion. The company also suffered reputational damage following a high-profile COVID outbreak on its Ruby Princess cruise ship.

The international cruise market is heavily concentrated. Almost 80% of the passenger market is shared by three big companies: Carnival, Royal Caribbean International and Norwegian cruise lines.

Australia’s high operating costs and relatively small market make it tough for big cruise companies to achieve the profitability they expect. Carnival’s Cunard Line attributed its decision to move out of Melbourne to a 15% hike in port fees.

As these companies have sought to strengthen their competitive advantage, acquiring smaller players has been a popular strategy.

This mass tourism model can deliver relatively cheap holidays for passengers. But it often also sacrifices well-loved smaller cruise operations that are more connected to local histories and cultures.

There is also the tyranny of distance for Australia, and increasing geopolitical risks affecting cruising.

The Australasian region faces stiff competition as a cruise destination from alternatives such as the Caribbean and the Mediterranean, which are close to large markets. Virgin Voyages said its cancellation of the 2024–25 sailing schedule was due to major safety concerns in the Red Sea.

What does its future hold?

Reassuringly, customers with P&O bookings for the remainder of 2024 will not be affected. Next year, the brand’s Pacific Encounter and Pacific Adventure ships will continue to sail, but under new branding for Carnival Cruise Line. Pacific Explorer will be retired from service.

In Australia, the mass tourism model of the big cruise operators is no doubt here to stay. But there could be further cuts to the range of destination ports offered as the industry prioritises profits.

In the longer term, however, a crucial question concerns the future of ports around Australia that have been enticed into engaging with the cruise industry. Many government tourism authorities have been keen to expand the sector.

As a result, access to some smaller ports has been negotiated and there has been a push to build new facilities in New South Wales, the biggest market.

This has received pushback from some parts of the community who argue the economic benefits don’t outweigh the cultural and ecological cost.

In the future, there could be a more sustainable solution for Australian cruising in smaller expedition-like formats. These have been particularly successful in locations such as the Kimberley in Western Australia.

Local communities at small-ship destinations may find this model of cruising more acceptable, given its lower passenger numbers and smaller environmental impact.

Freya Higgins-Desbiolles does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. End of the line for P&O: why is Australia such a tough market for the cruise ship industry? – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231607

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra

The Australian economy came close to a standstill in the first three months of this year. March-quarter economic growth sank to just 0.1%, meaning that, when adjusted for inflation, there was hardly any more income, spending or production than the quarter before.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the figures “laid bare” the weakness of the Australian economy, adding:

All of these people who were advising us to cut much harder in the budget or to provide no cost-of-living relief to people, they have been proven to be dead wrong.

The government’s decision to spend more rather than cut further in the May budget had been proved to be “exactly right”.

Australia’s annual rate of economic growth – 1.1% – is the worst outside of the pandemic since the early 1990s “recession we had to have”.

Reserve Bank forecasts released last month predict a gradual improvement without a recession.

The figures show Australia in the middle of a prolonged per-capita recession with real gross domestic product per capita falling for the fifth quarter in a row.

This is the longest decline in this measure of living standards in 40 years – since the early 1980s.

Households tighten belts further

Households have continued to tighten their belts. Household spending per capita contracted for the fifth quarter in a row.

Adjusted for inflation, Australian households spent hardly any more on goods and services that weren’t essential than they did a year before.

But there was a jump of 0.3% in so-called discretionary expenditure in the March quarter. The Bureau of Statistics attributes this increase in part to sold-out concerts by Taylor Swift and Pink and the formula 1 grand prix being held in the March quarter for the first time since 2019.

With household incomes, on average, no higher than before the pandemic, households have been saving less.

The proportion of income saved, the so-called household saving ratio, remains close to zero at 0.9%. During the COVID lockdowns the ratio peaked at 24%.

Over the longer term, income per person will reflect labour productivity, which the bureau defines as gross domestic product per hour worked.

It has fallen since early 2022 and has recovered only modestly in recent quarters. It is still no higher than it was before the pandemic.

The bureau reports that building of new homes, and renovations to existing homes, fell again in the quarter. The slump reflects weak household incomes, higher interest rates and increased building costs.

Low dwelling approvals suggest home building will not recover for some time.

Businesses investing less

Business investment fell for the first time since the June quarter of 2020. A winding back of work on oil and gas projects drove down investment. One area of strength was equipment for data centres.

Exports grew by much less than imports. Coal and iron ore exports slumped, as did cotton (on the back of low harvests) and education (in line with cuts to international student numbers).

Most types of imports climbed in the quarter, in particular fertilisers after an interruption to domestic supplies.

(Somewhat) better times from July

Consumer surveys, weak dwelling approvals and weak retail trade all suggest the June quarter is likely to be similarly weak.

There was a large build-up of inventories (unsold goods) in the March quarter. It is unlikely to have flowed from firms deliberately building up stocks in anticipation of a surge in demand. More likely it suggests disappointing sales, which could bring weaker production in the June quarter.

Things should get better in the September quarter (the three months from July) when every taxpayer receives a Stage 3 tax cut and a range of other government supports. These include a $75-per-quarter rebate on electricity bills and a 3.75% wage increase for Australians on awards.

Whether Australians decide to save or spend these supports is an open question. A Westpac survey found consumers plan to save 80 cents in every dollar in tax relief, which would be a weak response by historical standards.

No rate cuts yet

Inflation is falling back towards the Reserve Bank’s target zone.

But the bank’s governor, Michele Bullock, told a Senate committee on Wednesday morning the bank would nonetheless “not hesitate” to lift rates again if inflation didn’t come down as quickly as expected.

In determining what was happening to inflation, the bank would try to “look through” things that are one-off and are going to be reversed. This means it won’t take full account of budget measures such as the electricity rebate whose downward effect on measured inflation will be reversed when they end.

She said the economy was “very weak” and the best thing she could do to help households was to bring inflation down.

John Hawkins was formerly a senior economic analyst and forecaster with the Reserve Bank and the Australian Treasury,

– ref. 7 graphs that show economic growth near zero as Australia waits for a budget boost – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231173

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Enzo Palombo, Professor of Microbiology, Swinburne University of Technology

Recent outbreaks of bird flu – in US dairy herds, poultry farms in Australia and elsewhere, and isolated cases in humans – have raised the issue of food safety.

So can the virus transfer from infected farm animals to contaminate milk, meat or eggs? How likely is this?

And what do we need to think about to minimise our risk when shopping for or preparing food?

How safe is milk?

Bird flu (or avian influenza) is a bird disease caused by specific types of influenza virus. But the virus can also infect cows. In the US, for instance, to date more than 80 dairy herds in at least nine states have been infected with the H5N1 version of the virus.

Investigations are under way to confirm how this happened. But we do know infected birds can shed the virus in their saliva, nasal secretions and faeces. So bird flu can potentially contaminate animal-derived food products during processing and manufacturing.

Indeed, fragments of bird flu genetic material (RNA) were found in cow’s milk from the dairy herds associated with infected US farmers.

However, the spread of bird flu among cattle, and possibly to humans, is likely to have been caused through contact with contaminated milking equipment, not the milk itself.

The test used to detect the virus in milk – which uses similar PCR technology to lab-based COVID tests – is also highly sensitive. This means it can detect very low levels of the bird flu RNA. But the test does not distinguish between live or inactivated virus, just that the RNA is present. So from this test alone, we cannot tell if the virus found in milk is infectious (and capable of infecting humans).

Does that mean milk is safe to drink and won’t transmit bird flu? Yes and no.

In Australia, where bird flu has not been reported in dairy cattle, the answer is yes. It is safe to drink milk and milk products made from Australian milk.

In the US, the answer depends on whether the milk is pasteurised. We know pasteurisation is a common and reliable method of destroying concerning microbes, including influenza virus. Like most viruses, influenza virus (including bird flu virus) is inactivated by heat.

Although there is little direct research on whether pasteurisation inactivates H5N1 in milk, we can extrapolate from what we know about heat inactivation of H5N1 in chicken and eggs.

So we can be confident there is no risk of bird flu transmission via pasteurised milk or milk products.

However, it’s another matter for unpasteurised or “raw” US milk or milk products. A recent study showed mice fed raw milk contaminated with bird flu developed signs of illness. So to be on the safe side, it would be advisable to avoid raw milk products.

How about chicken?

Bird flu has caused sporadic outbreaks in wild birds and domestic poultry worldwide, including in Australia. In recent weeks, there have been three reported outbreaks in Victorian poultry farms (two with H7N3 bird flu, one with H7N9). There has been one reported outbreak in Western Australia (H9N2).

The strains of bird flu identified in the Victorian and Western Australia outbreaks can cause human infection, although these are rare and typically result from close contact with infected live birds or contaminated environments.

Therefore, the chance of bird flu transmission in chicken meat is remote.

Nonetheless, it is timely to remind people to handle chicken meat with caution as many dangerous pathogens, such as Salmonella and Campylobacter, can be found on chicken carcasses.

Always handle chicken meat carefully when shopping, transporting it home and storing it in the kitchen. For instance, make sure no meat juices cross-contaminate other items, consider using a cool bag when transporting meat, and refrigerate or freeze the meat within two hours.

Avoid washing your chicken before cooking to prevent the spread of disease-causing microbes around the kitchen.

Finally, cook chicken thoroughly as viruses (including bird flu) cannot survive cooking temperatures.

Are eggs safe?

The recent Australian outbreaks have occurred in egg-laying or mixed poultry flocks, so concerns have been raised about bird flu transmission via contaminated chicken eggs.

Can flu viruses contaminate chicken eggs and potentially spread bird flu? It appears so. A report from 2007 said it was feasible for influenza viruses to enter through the eggshell. This is because influenza virus particles are smaller (100 nanometres) than the pores in eggshells (at least 200 nm).

So viruses could enter eggs and be protected from cleaning procedures designed to remove microbes from the egg surface.

Therefore, like the advice about milk and meat, cooking eggs is best.

The US Food and Drug Administration recommends cooking poultry, eggs and other animal products to the proper temperature and preventing cross-contamination between raw and cooked food.

In a nutshell

If you consume pasteurised milk products and thoroughly cook your chicken and eggs, there is nothing to worry about as bird flu is inactivated by heat.

The real fear is that the virus will evolve into highly pathogenic versions that can be transmitted from human to human.

That scenario is much more frightening than any potential spread though food.

Enzo Palombo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. With all this bird flu around, how safe are eggs, chicken or milk? – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231280

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sigi Goode, Professor of Information Systems, Australian National University

In recent days, both Ticketek Australia and Ticketmaster have experienced breaches which have exposed customer details to hackers. They join a growing list of high-profile data breaches that have put the privacy of millions at risk.

For example, in 2022, Optus disclosed a breach of 9.8 million records. In 2023, Latitude, the Australian financial services firm, experienced a data breach of more than 14 million records.

My own university, the Australian National University, experienced a data breach of 200,000 records in 2018. Dan Murphy’s, Football Australia, Microsoft, Nissan, Dell, Roku, Suncorp and Shell have all experienced breaches so far in 2024.

Despite advancements in technology and increased awareness of cybersecurity threats, companies continue to fall victim to breach attacks.

It may feel like these breaches are becoming more frequent, and that seemingly any firm is a data breach target waiting to happen. But the situation is not quite so clear-cut.

What happens in a data breach?

A data breach is an unauthorised access or disclosure of sensitive, confidential or private information: customer identities, payment methods, account details, purchase histories and so on.

Breaches can happen when cyber criminals exploit vulnerabilities in computer systems, networks, applications or physical security to gain unauthorised access to protected data. They can also access data when it’s accidentally made available outside the organisation, perhaps by an incorrectly addressed email or a lost USB memory stick.

Australia has actually seen a fairly steady rate of notifiable data breaches since 2020 – around 450 every six months, according to the Office of the Australian Information Commissioner.

While these figures are higher than when the notifiable data breach program began in 2018, it’s important to understand this is partly a consequence of requiring organisations to disclose breaches: the more you look for something, the more you’re going to find it.

Even if the number of data breaches is not increasing significantly, the average cost and severity of these breaches has risen substantially. According to IBM, the average cost of a data breach was US$4.45 million (A$6.69 million), an increase of 15% over three years. So what’s driving these increases?

The value of your personal data is going up

Increased demand for targeted advertising and the growing importance of data-driven decision making have fuelled the need for richer customer data.

Many organisations – not just legitimate ones – want to know more about you, and at a much more granular level than before. The more comprehensive and accurate the data, the more valuable it becomes.

Increasingly stringent privacy regulations, such as the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and Australia’s Privacy Act have driven organisations to improve their data management practices and security measures to protect user information and avoid costly fines.

This has made it harder, not easier, for cyber criminals to acquire user data in bulk.

Meanwhile, markets for illicit customer data are becoming more popular as anonymising networks and tools become more user friendly. Tools for selling on the dark web have also become more advanced, allowing cyber criminals to collaborate and share information about in-demand data, potential targets and new attack modes.

Once a cyber criminal has obtained some data, finding a buyer is much easier than it was even a few years ago.

However, large firms are investing more in protecting and storing data. According to consulting firm Gartner, 87% of chief information officers in Australia and New Zealand will be increasing their cybersecurity budgets this year.

As a result, data and cybersecurity practices are becoming more complex, increasing the skill needed for a bad actor to make a successful attack.

How do I protect my data with so many breaches happening?

While our personal data continues to have value, there will be a market for it. Make sure you practice good cybersecurity habits.

Regularly review and delete inactive accounts, and monitor your accounts for strange activity.

Enable two-factor authentication (2FA) on your accounts and devices, so that you’ll receive a prompt on your phone when someone logs into your account, or transfers money out of it. Don’t believe cold callers who want you to deactivate or give them your two-factor responses.

Read more:
What is multi-factor authentication, and how should I be using it?

Be very selective about the personal info you share online, particularly information such as birthdays, when and where you were born, and the names of pets and family members. This information can be used to defuse account recovery questions.

Don’t click on suspicious email links, regardless of how innocuous they might appear.

Never provide sensitive information to unknown or unverifiable sources, especially cold callers who claim you have a virus, or are due for a refund. Authentic callers will be happy for you to call them back on an official number.

The best way to think about the data breach problem is not to think about how our data can be breached, but to think about how organisations get your data in the first place. The best way to protect yourself online – whether it’s data breaches or an account compromise – is to guard your data jealously.

You only have one identity: don’t give it away easily.

Sigi Goode has received funding from the Department of Defence, AustCyber and the Australian Communications Consumer Action Network (ACCAN).

– ref. Are data breaches the new normal? Should we just assume our data isn’t safe? – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231396

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Bean, Research Fellow, School of Information Technology and Electrical Engineering, The University of Queensland

The gender gap in urban cycling worldwide is staggering. Most cyclists are young to middle-aged men – hence phenomena such as “lycra cyclists” or “mamils”.

In Anglo countries, including Australia, only one in four commuter cyclists and one in three recreational cyclists are women. This is not healthy. While cycling is good for everyone, women stand to gain more because they typically exercise less than men.

Women are also at higher risk of osteoporosis, arthritis, anxiety, depression and various autoimmune diseases. So they need more of the type of exercise like cycling that builds bone density, strengthens muscles, helps manage weight and improves mood.

So what’s stopping women from cycling? Our new research analysed more than 200 million bike-sharing trips in ten cities worldwide, including Brisbane, over a period of 14 years. We found that slopes, darkness and bad weather affect numbers of female cyclists more than male cyclists.

The expectations of female users of bike-sharing schemes are probably similar to the expectations of female cyclists in general. Our findings point to a number of solutions to close the gender gap in cycling.

Women face specific barriers to cycling

Gender-specific barriers to cycling range from lower confidence to lower strength (on average). Sprawling cities, which create long distances between destinations, and a lack of high-quality cycling infrastructure are known to deter women from cycling.

However, some barriers are due to the natural environment.

For example, women may avoid cycling or choose to cycle only in the daytime. When it’s dark, they fear assaults or victimisation. This is a problem in cities such as Brisbane and Sydney where it gets dark by 5pm in winter, so women are reluctant to cycle home after work.

Many workplaces have dress codes and some expect women to wear skirts, heels and makeup. As a result, these employees may avoid commuting by bike in rainy, cold or humid weather, especially where end-of-ride facilities, such as showers, are missing at work.

Cycling infrastructure is often located on floodplains, such as along rivers. In flood-prone areas, such as much of eastern Australia, women may avoid cycling in wet weather due to fear of slippery, flooded roads and paths.

Sun exposure along uncovered paths can be a deterrent too. Women are more health-conscious and bear more responsibility for their family’s heath and wellbeing.

Finally, women tend to prefer moderate-intensity exercise and less vigorous travel. This may lead them to avoid cycling in hilly areas.

Climate change may increase or decrease some of these natural barriers to cycling depending on location.

How big is the gender impact of natural barriers?

So far, studies linking gender and cycling have been sparse. Partly this is because transport surveys and observations are difficult and costly.

In our study, we took a different approach: we used data harvested from digital bike-sharing systems. Trip and gender data were matched with weather, slope and sunset/sunrise data from various public agencies. Then, we built statistical models for ridership.

In most cities, we found rain and wind deterred female riders more than male riders.

For example, in New York, an extra 1 millimetre of rain per hour reduced the number of male riders by 35% and female riders by 39% (all else being equal). Similarly, for every 1 metre per second increase in wind speed, male riders reduced by 5.4% and female riders by 5.8%.

Where slopes were more than 1%, we found a significant difference between male and female rider counts in most cities.

Finally, male ridership was higher in the dark (before sunrise or after sunset) in all cities.

How can bicycles become a girl’s best friend?

Women tend to prefer cycling that is safe, non-strenuous and seamlessly incorporated into their daily routines. Providing maximum separation from cars along main streets and in street junctions and applying traffic-calming devices in neighbourhood streets can help improve safety. So would creating off-road cycling tracks, such as through parks.

We also offer some recommendations to help eliminate natural barriers.

Electric bikes offer much potential here. They require much less effort to ride than conventional bicycles. Thus, they enable longer trips, greater comfort in hilly and windy places, and faster trips in the dark or rain.

Therefore, cities could consider full or partial electrification of bike-share fleets.

Another strategy is to minimise the exposure of bike paths. Paths can be covered by manufactured shelters or tree canopies, and even artificially cooled by fans. This would reduce the effects of heat, sun, wind and rain.

Some good examples and ideas come from tropical or desert climes, such as Singapore and Dubai, rather than from temperate places.

To deal with safety and security concerns in the dark, whether actual or perceived, cities need to provide better lighting along cycling routes.

More broadly, easily cyclable urban areas should become the goal of urban planning.

Dorina Pojani has received funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Urban Research Infrastructure Network, and the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads. She cycles recreationally and was a member of the now-defunct CityCycle scheme in Brisbane.

Jonathan Corcoran has received funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Urban Research Infrastructure Network, and the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads.

Richard Bean does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Bad weather, hills and the dark deter cyclists, particularly women. So what can we do about it? – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/230306

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gabriel C Rau, Lecturer in Hydrogeology, School of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Newcastle

Under your feet lies the world’s biggest reservoir. Groundwater makes up a whopping 97% of all usable freshwater. Where is it? In the voids between grains and cracks within rocks. We see it when it rises to the surface in springs, in caves, or when we pump it up for use.

While groundwater is often hidden, it underpins ecosystems around the world and is a vital resource for people.

You might think groundwater would be protected from climate change, given it’s underground. But this is no longer the case. As the atmosphere continues to heat up, more and more heat is penetrating underground. There is already considerable evidence that the subsurface is warming. The heat shows up in temperature measurements taken in boreholes around the world.

Our team of international scientists have combined our knowledge to model how groundwater will heat up in the future. Under a realistic middle of the road greenhouse gas emission scenario, with a projected mean global atmospheric temperature rise of 2.7°C, groundwater will warm by an average of 2.1°C by 2100, compared to 2000.

This warming varies by region and is delayed by decades compared to the surface, because it takes time to heat up the underground mass. Our results can be accessed by everyone globally.

Why does it matter?

You might wonder what the consequences of hotter groundwater will be.

First, the good news. Warming beneath the land’s surface is trapping 25 times less energy than the ocean, but it is still significant. This heat is stored in layers down to tens of metres deep, making it easier to access. We could use this extra heat to sustainably warm our homes by tapping into it just a few meters below the surface.

The heat can be extracted using heat pumps, powered by electricity from renewable energies. Geothermal heat pumps are surging in popularity for space heating across Europe.

Unfortunately, the bad news is likely to far outweigh the good. Warmer groundwater is harmful for the rich array of life found underground – and for the many plants and animals who depend on groundwater for their survival. Any changes in temperature can seriously disrupt the niche they have adapted to.

To date, the highest groundwater temperature increases are in parts of Russia, where surface temperatures have risen by more than 1.5°C since 2000. In Australia, significant variations in groundwater temperatures are expected within the shallowest layers.

Groundwater regularly flows out to feed lakes and rivers around the world, as well as the ocean, supporting a range of groundwater dependent ecosystems.

If warmer groundwater flows into your favourite river or lake, it will add to the extra heat from the sun. This could mean fish and other species will find it too warm to survive. Warm waters also hold less oxygen. Lack of oxygen in rivers and lakes have already become a major cause of mass fish deaths, as we’ve seen recently in Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin.

Cold water species such as Atlantic salmon have adapted to a water temperature window provided by continuous cool groundwater discharge. As these thermal refuges heat up, it will upend their breeding cycle.

Groundwater is vital

In many parts of the world, people rely on groundwater as their main source of drinking water. But groundwater warming can worsen the quality of the water we drink. Temperature influences everything from chemical reactions to microbial activity. Warmer water could, for instance, trigger more harmful reactions, where metals leach out into the water. This is especially concerning in areas where access to clean drinking water is already limited.

Industries such as farming, manufacturing and energy production often rely on groundwater for their operations. If the groundwater they depend on becomes too warm or more contaminated, it can disrupt their activities.

Our study is global, but we have to find out more about how groundwater is warming and what impact this could have locally. By studying how groundwater temperatures are changing over time and across different regions, we can better predict future trends and find strategies to adapt or reduce the effects.

Global groundwater warming is a hidden but very significant consequence of climate change. While the impacts will be delayed, they stretch far and wide. They will affect ecosystems, drinking water supplies and industries around the world.

Gabriel Rau receives funding from the German Research Council (DFG) for research on subsurface heat transport, though not related to this article.

Barret Kurylyk receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) and the Canada Research Chairs Program for research related to this article.

Dylan Irvine receives funding from the Australian Research Council, The National Environmental Science Program and the Cooperative Research Centre for Developing Northern Australia, although the research in the research discussed here is independent of these research programs.

Susanne Benz was supported through a Banting postdoctoral fellowship, administered by the Government of Canada and since October 2022 as a Freigeist Fellow of the Volkswagen foundation

– ref. Groundwater is heating up, threatening life below and above the surface – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/229177