Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Weigand, Professor of Architecture and Interior Design and Interim Dean, College of Creative Arts, Miami University

It took a global pandemic to convince American businesses that their employees could work productively from home, or a favorite coffee shop. Post-COVID-19, employers are struggling to find the right balance of in-office and remote work. However, hybrid work is likely here to stay, at least for a segment of workers.

This shift isn’t just changing lifestyles – it’s also affecting commercial spaces. Office vacancy rates post-COVID-19 shot up almost overnight, and they remain near 20% nationwide, the highest rate since 1979 as tenants downsize in place or relocate. This workspace surplus is putting pressure on existing development loans and leading to defaults or creative refinancing in a market already plagued by higher interest rates.

Office tenants with deeper pockets have gravitated to newer and larger buildings with more amenities, often referred to as Class A or “trophy” buildings. Older Class B and C buildings, which often have fewer amenities or less-desirable locations, have struggled to fill space.

High vacancy rates are forcing developers to get creative. With reduced demand for older buildings, along with housing shortages in many American cities, some downtown buildings are being converted to residential use.

These projects often include some percentage of affordable housing, underwritten by tax incentives. In October 2023, the Biden administration released a list of federal loan, grant, tax credit and technical assistance programs that can support commercial-to-residential conversions.

As an architect, I’m encouraged to see these renovations of older commercial buildings, which are more economical and sustainable than new construction. In my view, they are fundamentally changing the character of our cities for the better. Even though only about 20% to 30% of older buildings can be profitably converted, architects and developers are quickly learning how to grade these structures to identify good candidates.

From workplace to living space

Converting commercial buildings to apartments didn’t start with the pandemic. In the decade leading up to the outbreak of COVID-19, developers converted more than 110,000 apartments from outdated hotels, office buildings, factories, warehouses and other buildings across the U.S. According to industry data, more than 58,000 apartments are currently being converted from office buildings.

Several characteristics of older Class B and C buildings make conversion particularly attractive. These buildings typically have smaller floor plates – total square footage of space per floor. Importantly, they also have shorter “core-to-shell” distances – the distance from the building core that contains stairs and elevators to the window wall.

Residential building codes generally require that natural light reach most rooms. Since living spaces, bedrooms and bathrooms are often separated by walls, a smaller core-to-shell distance allows more rooms to access natural light, making the conversion easier.

In contrast, typical new office buildings have larger floor plates and core-to-shell distances that sometimes can exceed 50 feet. This makes them more difficult to convert to residences.

But it’s not impossible. One creative solution involves moving the window wall inward by several feet to create outdoor decks. That’s an appealing amenity, but also an extra cost. In some conversions where the core-to-shell depth is greater than needed, developers have added interior vertical shafts or window wells to bring daylight to interior spaces.

Many older commercial buildings also offer higher ceilings, which are especially desirable in the residential market. Apartments and condos typically don’t need to conceal mechanical and electrical services with suspended acoustic tile ceilings, as offices do, so they can provide 12 feet or more of clear ceiling height.

Some older buildings, including many made of brick or stone, have large windows, which also are desirable in residential use. Conversely, smaller windows or higher sill heights may be disincentives to conversion.

Many older buildings were constructed before air conditioning was widely available, so they have operable windows. This is yet another plus for residential conversion, since occupants typically desire natural ventilation in their dwelling unit.

Obstacles to conversion

Some characteristics of older buildings can make residential conversion more difficult. For example, location always matters. Buildings that are far from other amenities, such as restaurants or grocery stores, may be less desirable.

Buildings with more unusual floor plates or geometric forms that work for office use may be difficult to carve up into residential units. Older structures that contain asbestos or lead paint can require expensive remediation.

Zoning laws may bar residential use or otherwise limit what can be done with a building. Cities can play an important role in encouraging residential conversions by revisiting zoning codes or offering tax incentives to developers.

One of the biggest costs of a residential conversion is the need to replace building systems such as plumbing and heating. Plumbing requirements in commercial office spaces, for example, are largely met with restroom facilities in the building core. Apartments or condos each require their own bathroom and kitchen, adding significant cost.

A return to ‘walkable cities’

Despite these challenges, if residential conversions bring people and energy back to downtowns outside of the workday, stores, restaurants, entertainment and other amenities of a vibrant lifestyle will follow.

Architects, planners, developers and politicians are increasingly interested in “walkable cities” or “20-minute cities.” Both of these concepts allude to providing necessary amenities like grocery stores, schools and restaurants that are accessible to residents on foot, reducing the need to own a car and promoting a more sustainable lifestyle.

Walkable cities aren’t a new idea. Throughout the 19th century, people in U.S. cities like New York and Chicago lived, worked, shopped and socialized within mixed-use neighborhoods.

The growth of car ownership post-World War II separated these uses into residential suburbs, office parks, shopping malls and cineplexes. Many critics view suburbanization as a failed experiment that has promoted sprawling development, reliance on cars and economic inequality

As more downtown office buildings are converted to residential use, many of them are likely to house restaurants, day care facilities, grocery stores and other service businesses, typically on their ground floors. These amenities contribute to the financial success of a project and to the vibrant lifestyles of its residents.

All of these shifts prompt questions. Can architects and developers find ways to design buildings that serve multiple uses over several centuries, rather than a single targeted use that becomes obsolete in 100 years? Can mid- and high-rise buildings be envisioned as flexible structural grids, with lower-cost and easily changeable modular inserts? Such structures could accommodate ever-changing needs, some of which we may not yet know will be critical to the urban infrastructure.

Architects, planners and developers are beginning to explore these questions. Converting downtown offices to residential use could be just the starting point. And it’s a reminder that dynamic cities can reinvent themselves in response to challenges.

John Weigand does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Cities with empty commercial space and housing shortages are converting office buildings into apartments – here’s what they’re learning – tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/226459

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

In his assault this week on the Albanese government’s climate policy, Peter Dutton is taking the Liberals right back to Tony Abbott’s days.

It’s a bold, risky big-target strategy, characterised by a truck load of negativity, as well as laced with a dash of policy adventurism.

Former chief scientist Ian Lowe, in an article in the Guardian, declared, “Given community attitudes, it looks like the silliest political death wish in recent history”.

But some in Labor quickly identified it as a Dutton “two-stage” strategy. Run hard at the suburban seats, where people are heavily under the financial pump. Abandon the teal seats for the moment. Try to force Anthony Albanese into minority government. Then hope in the next term to exploit whatever instability might arise.

That was the path that took Abbott – like Dutton, an unlikely Liberal leader – to government. Of course Dutton would have to hang onto the leadership through a second term in opposition (made a bit easier by not having Josh Frydenberg around).

Dutton’s climate strategy relies on tapping into two major current grievances: the cost-of-living pain and the resistance in many communities to the rollout of renewable energy infrastructure.

As opposition leader, Abbott labelled Labor’s carbon pollution reduction scheme as a “great big new tax on everything”.

Dutton has an update on an old theme, attacking the Albanese government’s 43% 2030 emissions reduction target – Australia’s pledge under the Paris climate agreement – as set to “destroy the economy”.

Abbott’s campaign yielded a political return for him, at a substantial cost for energy policy in Australia. But times have moved on in this never-ending climate debate, and Dutton’s climate policy-walk is through quicksand.

A pointed question was asked this week, at an Albanese news conference. Given cost of living was the top issue for people, did Australians want another election fought on climate change?

Probably not. To bring off his gamble, Dutton will need to convince voters Australia’s climate targets are harming them via their energy bills. Moreover, he’ll need to persuade them the energy transition can be safely slowed, and that nuclear power is credible and desirable.

That’s a big selling task. And so far, the opposition has embarked on it with extraordinary sloppiness.

Months ago, it flagged it would release its nuclear power policy before the budget. Then that was put off.

Initially, its nuclear option focused on small modular reactors. Then it switched to larger reactors, to be located on or near coal-fired power stations as they retire.

In an interview with last weekend’s Australian newspaper Dutton declared the 2030 target was unachievable. But he did not indicate whether a Coalition government would stay in the Paris agreement. Shadow Energy Minister Ted O’Brien had to clean up, saying a Dutton government would not seek to exit Paris.

Such untidiness is a feature of the Dutton opposition, typically opening it to attack by its opponents and leaving the public confused.

Political research will sit behind Dutton’s lines. When we look at the public research, the recently-released Lowy Institute 2024 poll shows a complex picture.

In that poll, 57% said global warming was a serious and pressing problem about which “we should begin taking steps now even if this involves significant costs”. Only 30% said the problem should be addressed “but its effects will be gradual so we can deal with the problem gradually by taking steps that are low in cost”.

There were age and political differences. The young are more galvanised than the old by the warming
threat, as are Labor supporters compared to Coalition supporters.

Beyond the generalised attitudes, the trends on the related issue of energy are very relevant. Some 48% say reducing household energy bills should be the main priority for the government’s energy policy. This is a 16 point increase from 2021. Those who say reducing carbon emissions should be the main priority have fallen 18 points to 37%.

The results show how altered circumstances over time do change people’s priorities (and of course these can change back).

The Dutton strategy is a back-end loaded policy, with less effort now (kicking much of the problem into the long grass) and relying on nuclear power after 2040 for a sprint to net zero 2050, a target Dutton says the Coalition still supports. Progress to 2050 doesn’t have to be linear, he says.

The government’s argument is that the energy transition, albeit difficult, is urgent and progress must be cumulative; trashing our 2030 target will undermine both investor confidence and Australia’s international reputation.

Dutton says he won’t announce what targets a Coalition government would have until after the election. Clearly such targets, if they ever materialised, would be less than Labor’s.

This position would lose the Coalition some votes. Dutton would be relying on other voters not being too fussed about his lack of targets. That would allow him to concentrate on attacking not just the government’s current 2030 target but the 2035 target it has to lodge under the Paris agreement early next year.

The government is potentially more vulnerable in the debate over the 2035 target than in the current row over the 2030 one.

The Climate Change Authority makes a recommendation by October to Energy Minister Chris Bowen on what the 2035 target should be. In its discussion paper, the authority has floated a range of 65–75% emissions reduction on 2005 levels. The authority believes this “could be achievable and sustainable if additional action is taken by governments, business, investors and households to achieve it”.

That would be a substantial lift in ambition from the 2030 target of 43% reduction, especially given there is dispute about whether that can be reached.

The government doesn’t have to accept the authority’s recommendation if it decided it was too high. But if it rejected it, it would open itself to an onslaught from the Greens.

As for the Greens, they are saying if a Dutton government tried to backtrack on the current 2030 target, it would breach the legislation the Albanese government passed to enshrine the target. (That could open a Coalition government to legal action, assuming it could not repeal the legislation.)

In practice, despite what Dutton says about returning to government in one term, under a two-term strategy he would not anticipate having to face that problem any time soon. The early herculean challenge Dutton does face is selling nuclear power to voters.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Grattan on Friday: the spectre of Abbott looms behind Dutton’s climate strategy – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-the-spectre-of-abbott-looms-behind-duttons-climate-strategy-232380

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

In his assault this week on the Albanese government’s climate policy, Peter Dutton is taking the Liberals right back to Tony Abbott’s days.

It’s a bold, risky big-target strategy, characterised by a truck load of negativity, as well as laced with a dash of policy adventurism.

Former chief scientist Ian Lowe, in an article in the Guardian, declared, “Given community attitudes, it looks like the silliest political death wish in recent history”.

But some in Labor quickly identified it as a Dutton “two-stage” strategy. Run hard at the suburban seats, where people are heavily under the financial pump. Abandon the teal seats for the moment. Try to force Anthony Albanese into minority government. Then hope in the next term to exploit whatever instability might arise.

That was the path that took Abbott – like Dutton, an unlikely Liberal leader – to government. Of course Dutton would have to hang onto the leadership through a second term in opposition (made a bit easier by not having Josh Frydenberg around).

Dutton’s climate strategy relies on tapping into two major current grievances: the cost-of-living pain and the resistance in many communities to the rollout of renewable energy infrastructure.

As opposition leader, Abbott labelled Labor’s carbon pollution reduction scheme as a “great big new tax on everything”.

Dutton has an update on an old theme, attacking the Albanese government’s 43% 2030 emissions reduction target – Australia’s pledge under the Paris climate agreement – as set to “destroy the economy”.

Abbott’s campaign yielded a political return for him, at a substantial cost for energy policy in Australia. But times have moved on in this never-ending climate debate, and Dutton’s climate policy-walk is through quicksand.

A pointed question was asked this week, at an Albanese news conference. Given cost of living was the top issue for people, did Australians want another election fought on climate change?

Probably not. To bring off his gamble, Dutton will need to convince voters Australia’s climate targets are harming them via their energy bills. Moreover, he’ll need to persuade them the energy transition can be safely slowed, and that nuclear power is credible and desirable.

That’s a big selling task. And so far, the opposition has embarked on it with extraordinary sloppiness.

Months ago, it flagged it would release its nuclear power policy before the budget. Then that was put off.

Initially, its nuclear option focused on small modular reactors. Then it switched to larger reactors, to be located on or near coal-fired power stations as they retire.

In an interview with last weekend’s Australian newspaper Dutton declared the 2030 target was unachievable. But he did not indicate whether a Coalition government would stay in the Paris agreement. Shadow Energy Minister Ted O’Brien had to clean up, saying a Dutton government would not seek to exit Paris.

Such untidiness is a feature of the Dutton opposition, typically opening it to attack by its opponents and leaving the public confused.

Political research will sit behind Dutton’s lines. When we look at the public research, the recently-released Lowy Institute 2024 poll shows a complex picture.

In that poll, 57% said global warming was a serious and pressing problem about which “we should begin taking steps now even if this involves significant costs”. Only 30% said the problem should be addressed “but its effects will be gradual so we can deal with the problem gradually by taking steps that are low in cost”.

There were age and political differences. The young are more galvanised than the old by the warming
threat, as are Labor supporters compared to Coalition supporters.

Beyond the generalised attitudes, the trends on the related issue of energy are very relevant. Some 48% say reducing household energy bills should be the main priority for the government’s energy policy. This is a 16 point increase from 2021. Those who say reducing carbon emissions should be the main priority have fallen 18 points to 37%.

The results show how altered circumstances over time do change people’s priorities (and of course these can change back).

The Dutton strategy is a back-end loaded policy, with less effort now (kicking much of the problem into the long grass) and relying on nuclear power after 2040 for a sprint to net zero 2050, a target Dutton says the Coalition still supports. Progress to 2050 doesn’t have to be linear, he says.

The government’s argument is that the energy transition, albeit difficult, is urgent and progress must be cumulative; trashing our 2030 target will undermine both investor confidence and Australia’s international reputation.

Dutton says he won’t announce what targets a Coalition government would have until after the election. Clearly such targets, if they ever materialised, would be less than Labor’s.

This position would lose the Coalition some votes. Dutton would be relying on other voters not being too fussed about his lack of targets. That would allow him to concentrate on attacking not just the government’s current 2030 target but the 2035 target it has to lodge under the Paris agreement early next year.

The government is potentially more vulnerable in the debate over the 2035 target than in the current row over the 2030 one.

The Climate Change Authority makes a recommendation by October to Energy Minister Chris Bowen on what the 2035 target should be. In its discussion paper, the authority has floated a range of 65–75% emissions reduction on 2005 levels. The authority believes this “could be achievable and sustainable if additional action is taken by governments, business, investors and households to achieve it”.

That would be a substantial lift in ambition from the 2030 target of 43% reduction, especially given there is dispute about whether that can be reached.

The government doesn’t have to accept the authority’s recommendation if it decided it was too high. But if it rejected it, it would open itself to an onslaught from the Greens.

As for the Greens, they are saying if a Dutton government tried to backtrack on the current 2030 target, it would breach the legislation the Albanese government passed to enshrine the target. (That could open a Coalition government to legal action, assuming it could not repeal the legislation.)

In practice, despite what Dutton says about returning to government in one term, under a two-term strategy he would not anticipate having to face that problem any time soon. The early herculean challenge Dutton does face is selling nuclear power to voters.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Grattan on Friday: the spectre of Abbott looms behind Dutton’s energy strategy – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-the-spectre-of-abbott-looms-behind-duttons-energy-strategy-232380

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Danielle Udy, Research associate in Climatology, University of Tasmania

Australia has a long history of bushfires. The 2019-2020 Black Summer was the worst in recorded history. But was that the worst it could get?

Our new research has reconstructed the past 2,000 years of southeast Australia’s bushfire weather, drawing on evidence of past climates laid down in changing patterns in deep ice in East Antarctica. The high and low pressure weather systems south of Australia are so large they connect the two continents, even though they are more than 3,000 km apart.

These historic weather patterns are recorded in the ice. Not with ash which might first come to mind, but in sea-salt spray from the Southern Ocean. When southeast Australia experiences extreme bushfire weather over summer, there is less wind around Antarctica, which means less sea-salt spray is laid down at the ice core site.

Buried in the ice is a warning. At least seven times over the last two millennia, our new research shows bushfire-prone southeast Australia has endured bushfire weather as bad or worse than what was experienced during the devastating Black Summer bushfires. The Black Summer bushfires burned through about 1.5 million hectares, or more than six times the size of the Australian Capital Territory.

This means natural climate variability can toss up more severe bushfire weather than we have yet seen. Given human-caused climate change is also loading the dice for worse and worse bushfire weather, it suggests we are underestimating how bad bushfires can be in Australia.

What makes bushfire weather?

If the weekend is forecast to be hot, dry and windy, we would say this is bushfire weather. Bushfire weather does not mean bushfires are inevitable, only they are more likely to start and more likely to be intense and fast-spreading once they ignite.

Australia’s Black Summer was caused by several climate factors combining. We had a multi-year drought, which coincided with climate variability bringing strong and hot northwesterly winds, and all against a backdrop of increasing heat and falling humidity over land brought by climate change.

Climate change is bringing more frequent and more severe bushfire weather. This trend is projected to continue into the future.

But quantifying the impacts of climate change on bushfire weather over the southeast Australian regions hardest hit by the Black Summer bushfires is difficult. This is because the climate in these mostly coastal or alpine regions varies a lot and we only have a relatively short record of observations.

Read more:
Antarctic ice shows Australia’s drought and flood risk is worse than thought

Our previous research on droughts – a key ingredient for extreme bushfire seasons – showed our roughly 120 years of rainfall observations does not fully cover the range of drought conditions which have occurred in the past 1,000 years. This is supported by recent palaeoclimate work reconstructing 2,000 years of eastern Australian climate variability and research using climate models to show evidence of megadroughts lasting 20 years or more in southeastern Australia.

Australia’s bushfire weather observations only extend back to 1950. In short, this means we have limited insights based on observations alone into how bad bushfire weather can be.

Answers in the ice

To reach back further in time, we looked to Antarctica. This is because Australia and Antarctica are linked through a “weather bridge”, meaning the enormous, powerful weather systems of the Southern Ocean affect both at the same time.

Year after year, these systems lift and carry different amounts of sea salt from the ocean surface and transport it to Antarctica, where it is laid down in layers of snow and ice.

About 125 km from Casey Station in Australia’s Antarctic territory lies Law Dome. This small, coastal ice cap is very useful for climate scientists, because it is regularly hit by cold cyclones from the Southern Ocean. These intense winds bring sea salt and trigger high snow accumulation – about 1.5 metres a year.

Drilling ice cores from places such as Law Dome has given us rich data sets of past climatic events. We have used these changing levels of sea salt in the ice to reconstruct rainfall and drought over two millennia in eastern Australia. Our new research focuses on Australia’s bushfire weather.

What did we find?

Using this evidence, we found an important relationship between the ice core record and the Forest Fire Danger Index, used by authorities to measure bushfire weather.

We then grouped similar weather patterns together over time, so we could get what we were really after: the connection between high and low pressure systems in the Southern Ocean, sea salt, and bushfire weather.

In the observational record, most of Australia’s bushfire disasters have been linked to intense summer cold fronts, including Ash Wednesday (1983), the Canberra bushfires (2003), Black Saturday (2009) and the Black Summer. These cold fronts direct hot, dry and intense winds from the Australian desert to the coast. This increases the chance of bushfires starting and can turn bushfires already burning into enormous conflagrations.

Using our ice core and weather datasets, we found the same weather conditions are behind periods of lower levels of sea salt in the ice and elevated bushfire weather in southeast Australia. These conditions are when the strong westerly winds circling Antarctica move north towards Australia, bringing summer cold fronts. In technical terms, this is when the Southern Annular Mode is negative.

In the last 2,000 years, we found seven years where bushfire weather was the same or even worse than the 2019-2020 Black Summer, in the summers of 485, 683, 709, 760, 862, 885 and 1108 CE.

Ice and bushfire

Climate change is making extreme bushfire weather steadily more likely.

What our research shows is that natural climate variability can also produce bushfire weather similar or worse than the Black Summer.

Fire authorities should take these possible natural extremes into account, in addition to the increasing intensity of bushfire weather from climate change.

Read more:
A 20-year ‘mega-drought’ in Australia? Research suggests it’s happened before – and we should expect it again

Danielle Udy receives funding from the Australian Research Council through the Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science and a Discovery Project

Anthony Kiem receives funding from (i) the Australian Research Council (ARC) through Discovery Projects and (ii) the Future Drought Fund via the Southern Queensland and Northern New South Wales Drought Resilience Adoption and Innovation Hub.

Neil Holbrook receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC), through the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and the ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, and Australia’s National Environmental Science Program.

Nerilie Abram receives funding from the Australian Research Council through the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, the Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science and the Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century.

Tessa Vance receives funding from the Australian Research Council through Discovery Projects, and from the Australian Governments’ Antarctic Science Collaboration Initiative.

– ref. Of ice and fire: what sea salt in Antarctic snowfall reveals about bushfires worse than the Black Summer – https://theconversation.com/of-ice-and-fire-what-sea-salt-in-antarctic-snowfall-reveals-about-bushfires-worse-than-the-black-summer-230982

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jeff Borland, Professor of Economics, The University of Melbourne

For some time now – gradually, but nevertheless relentlessly – the Australian labour market has been weakening.

Today’s Bureau of Statistics employment report, telling us what happened in the month to May, show that direction is unchanged.

Certainly, employment growth of almost 40,000 in the month and a slight dip in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4% is good news.

Not only that, the labour market remains in a much better state than prior to COVID. You need to go back to the early 1970s to find another period of 30 consecutive months when the unemployment rate was below 4.5%.

And the employment-to-population ratio (the proportion of the population aged 15 and older that is employed) remains not too far off its all-time high at 64.1%. That’s a full two percentage points above where it was when COVID hit in early 2020.

Yet the labour market is weakening.

Not that it has always been easy to see. Take growth in employment. Since June last year, when the rate of unemployment began to rise, employment has increased at an annualised rate of 2.6%.

That rate is much faster than in any of the previous three episodes since 2000 when the rate of unemployment rose appreciably.

This resilience in employment has muted the rise in the rate of unemployment that would have otherwise occurred.

Okun’s law, named after US economist Arthur Okun, tells us how we ought to expect the unemployment rate to change for any given rate of economic growth.

Gross domestic product grew 1.1% in the year to March. Okun’s law says this should mean the unemployment rate climbed 0.9 of a percentage point. Instead, it climbed by only one-third as much, 0.3 of a percentage point.

More employed than might be expected

So, why has employment been growing faster than expected? There are several reasons.

One is rapid population growth. Population has grown at an annual rate of 2.9% since last June, more quickly than in previous times when unemployment rose.

More people means more demand for services and more demand for workers.

Another reason concerns job vacancies. During the recovery from COVID, the proportion of vacant jobs almost doubled, climbing to 3.1% in mid-2022 compared to just 1.6% prior to COVID.

Since then the vacancy rate has fallen back to 2.3%. This matters for employment. Drawing down on the stock of existing vacancies allows a larger number of extra workers to be employed.

And average work hours have fallen, from about 138.5 hours per month in June last year to 136 hours in May. With each worker doing fewer hours on average, the total hours of work can be divided among more workers.

Jobs growth heading down

Even with these special circumstances, the pace of employment growth is falling. In the past six months annualised employment growth has almost halved compared to the first six months of 2023. It’s decreased from 3.7% to 2%.

And other indicators show a more pronounced downward trend.

Annual growth in monthly hours worked averaged close to 7% in the first six months of 2023, but only 0.8% in the past six months.

Annual growth in the number of jobs reported to the Australian Tax Office payroll system over the same period fell from around 6% to 2%.

All this spells hard times ahead for the government and the Reserve Bank.

With the labour market bubbling along and the rate of unemployment hardly budging, there seemed to be little trade-off between pursuing an inflation-first policy and full employment.

That is no longer the case. The trade-off is becoming clear to see, and looming larger with every new release of data on the state of the labour market.

Jeff Borland receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Unemployment has dipped, but don’t be fooled – the jobs market is weakening – https://theconversation.com/unemployment-has-dipped-but-dont-be-fooled-the-jobs-market-is-weakening-231923

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Bill Shorten, the minister for the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), is currently in New York at a United Nations conference on the rights of people with disabilities.

At the weekend, he’ll fly to Europe to represent Australia at a summit in Switzerland aimed at finding international consensus on a peace path for the Ukrainian conflict.

In this podcast, Shorten discusses these conferences, as well as the ongoing process of reforming the NDIS.

On what the Ukrainian peace conference hopes to achieve, given Russia will not be there, Shorten says

Well, at the absolute very least, it’s an expression of global solidarity for the Ukrainian struggle against the criminal invasion of Ukraine by Russia. But I think more than that it […] lays down markers across a range of issues, I expect, which would be part of the basis for a peace process.

The work has to be done, eventually it has to obviously involve Russia, but there’s work which needs to start now.

Read more:
With Russia not attending, what can this weekend’s Ukraine peace summit achieve?

Australia has given substantial aid to Ukraine but refused its request for retired Taipan helicopters and a shipment of coal. Shorten says:

Well, Ukraine is entitled to ask for whatever it wants, but Australia is entitled to provide whatever it thinks it should.

When it comes to the coal shipment, it’s not correct to say that nothing has happened. What happened is that we’re interested in delivering the most effective and efficient support we can for the Ukrainian people. Shipment of coal from Australia carries shipping and insurance costs. Instead, we’ve given the equivalent amount of the coal in cash – $20 million to the Ukraine Energy Support Fund.

Shorten currently has legislation going through parliament to reform the NDIS. The UN disabilities conference has been an opportunity to share information with other countries.

It is quite an amazing experience. The governments of the world talk about what they’re doing for people with disability, but it’s a sort of kitchen of everything for disability.

The nations say what they’re doing, the non-government organisations talk. There are many Australian civil society disability advocates who are here. We see what good ideas we can hoover up from the rest of the world, and we talk a bit about the Australian journey for disability.

NDIS reform involves a battle against fraud and what have been exploding costs. Shorten says:

I must state this at the outset because sometimes NDIS media coverage tends to be just all doom and gloom. The NDIS, since its inception 11 years ago, has changed hundreds of thousands of lives for the better and it’s attracted people to work in the sector. But it is correct that it’s growing too fast. And what we’ve got a range of measures to get the scheme back on track. This legislation specifically goes to some of them.

We want to make sure that when a person’s annual budget or their two-yearly budget is expended far quicker than the annual or the bi-annual plan predicted, then we’re able to look and understand why that is the case. We want to make sure that the person with a disability isn’t being manipulated into burning up their resources with bad advice or inappropriate services.

Finally, there’s been speculation about whether Shorten would be interested in an oversees post. Will he be around for the long haul? Asked if he’ll contest the next election, he says,

My plans haven’t changed at all. I am very lucky to be able to serve in the parliament. I’ve been very fortunate […] I’ve been lucky to lead the Labor Party, I’ve been lucky to work in NDIS and government services and be part of the royal commission class action. I don’t want to waste a minute of my time here.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Bill Shorten’s around-the-world trip to discuss peace in Ukraine and NDIS reform – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-bill-shortens-around-the-world-trip-to-discuss-peace-in-ukraine-and-ndis-reform-232381

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tracy Harkison, Associate Professor, School of Hospitality and Tourism, Auckland University of Technology

What should visiting Aotearoa New Zealand cost your average tourist? The government has suggested raising the price of admission – otherwise known as the international visitor conservation and tourism levy (IVL) – from NZ$35 to $100.

The aim is to relieve New Zealand taxpayers and ratepayers of some of the tourism costs they currently bear. But it also raises important questions about our overall tourism strategy, and about who we are encouraging to visit.

The previous Labour government introduced the IVL in 2019 to contribute to tourism infrastructure and conservation projects, as well as help create productive, sustainable and inclusive tourism growth.

At the same time, Tourism New Zealand has been actively campaigning to attract tourists who will visit more regions, travel in different seasons – and spend more.

So, do we want to focus on attracting high-spending tourists? Or do we want to attract large numbers of all tourist types and charge them more? The answers will have wide implications for whether New Zealand becomes a niche, premium destination, or another stop on the mass travel map.

Value versus values

Tourism is a vital part of New Zealand’s economy, earning about $17.5 billion a year (around $48 million a day) before COVID. The pandemic put the industry on life support, of course, but it did provide a unique opportunity to rethink and reshape tourism policy.

One strategy that emerged was to attract “high-value” tourists rather than revert to the pre-pandemic model of mass tourism. Some popular destinations had been overwhelmed at times. This put a strain on both environmental sustainability and the quality of visitor experiences.

This proposed shift was not unique to New Zealand. During the pandemic, many countries explored the potential of more sustainable and higher-value tourism once borders reopened.

But New Zealand’s distinctive overseas marketing approach has long played up being a welcoming country for all. This tension between being inclusive as well as more exclusive also challenges the Māori concept of manaakitanga – hospitality and generosity – that has been key to tourism’s messaging.

The strategy and insights team at the Department of Conservation suggested a way through the paradox: shift the narrative from high-value tourism to values-based tourism that “gives more than it takes”.

Meanwhile, Tourism New Zealand was collecting data to understand more about how to attract and satisfy high-net-worth individuals, already targeted through its premium partnerships programme.

At that time, the then tourism minister, Stuart Nash, was talking up a new vision “to target high-quality tourists”. He later clarified this, saying “quality” referred to people staying at least ten days and spending more money. He also wanted New Zealand to be one of the world’s top three “aspirational destinations”

Calls to reset tourism strategy

A Tourism New Zealand survey released just before last year’s election suggested Nash’s message may have resonated with some – 15% were in favour of attracting a “higher quality” of tourist, and 30% wanted to limit the number of tourists on public land.

With tourism now approaching pre-COVID numbers and international visitor spending up $1.3 billion on the previous year, the question of how many and what kind of tourists we want becomes more urgent.

To that end, the business association Tourism Industry Aotearoa has released Tourism 2050: A Blueprint For Impact. It aims to “reset industry strategy” and calls for a national tourism policy statement from the government.

Among the blueprint’s ten recommended main actions, environmental sustainability and embracing Māori culture and knowledge stand out. This includes embedding the
Tiaki Promise, an industry initiative begun in 2018 to encourage tourists to care for New Zealand’s people, places and culture.

Finding the balance

With international visitor spending up 18% up on pre-COVID levels, Tourism New Zealand has been optimistic its strategy is paying off. But any increase in the international visitor levy will need to be communicated carefully.

While $100 may not seem a lot in the context of an overseas holiday’s overall cost, it is still another price barrier. And openly targeting high-value visitors suggests other visitors are low-value.

If the essence of manaakitanga is that people arrive as strangers but leave as whānau (family), the authenticity of New Zealand’s overall messaging needs to be clear.

It’s true that luxury travel is a growth market. But showcasing a commitment to the environment and Indigenous culture can appeal as much to a backpacker as to a high-net-worth individual.

Engaging local communities in tourism planning will be crucial to ensure the benefits are shared widely, and the whole country can show that manaakitanga. Fostering a more sustainable tourism industry means looking after everyone.

The success of the strategy lies in our ability to balance exclusivity with inclusivity: encourage all types of tourists, don’t raise the visitor levy by too much, and ensure New Zealand stays a welcoming and sustainable haven for all.

Tracy Harkison does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Welcome to NZ – now pay up: the risks and rewards of raising the foreign tourist tax – https://theconversation.com/welcome-to-nz-now-pay-up-the-risks-and-rewards-of-raising-the-foreign-tourist-tax-232138

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Parisa Ziaesaeidi, Associate Lecturer in Architecture, Western Sydney University

The National Cabinet set an ambitious target of building 1.2 million well-located homes over the next five years to tackle Australia’s housing crisis. The focus of the National Housing Accord is on complementary development that improves existing neighbourhoods. This includes infill development on vacant or underutilised land in established urban areas.

Infill development uses existing infrastructure and avoids urban sprawl. It can create more compact neighbourhoods with diverse housing choices.

Well planned and designed infill development makes it easier for residents to use public transport and active transport such as cycling and walking. It also reduces the loss of native vegetation and farmland. It’s generally a win for the environment, people and the public purse.

The question is how can Australia achieve its housing target? The current rate of construction is too slow to deliver 1.2 million homes by July 2029. And can we do so in a way that meets people’s needs and preference for medium-density housing rather than ultra-dense high rises?

The answer is to build so-called “missing middle” housing types such as low-rise apartments, townhouses and duplexes. Prefabricated construction can deliver this sort of housing much more quickly.

Federal Industry Ministry Ed Husic, who is hosting a roundtable today on the role prefabricated housing can play in achieving the target, said:

We know that this gives us a great opportunity to use advanced technology to build these homes. Prefabs have come a long way from what people used to associate them with and they’re providing really quality solutions.

The missing middle: a crucial component

Development in Australia tends to gravitate toward either low-density urban sprawl or ultra-dense, high-rise development. While medium-density development exists, it’s missing from the housing mix in many areas.

Missing middle housing fills the gap between large family houses and high-rise apartments. It’s an important step toward supplying enough well-located housing in our cities.

Low-rise apartments, townhouses and duplexes can help Australian cities grow through inside-out, medium-density development. Cities then won’t have to spread out to house growing populations.

The missing middle may be more affordable for residents such as young professionals, small families and seniors. Building this housing in established neighbourhoods will, in turn, improve their social mix.

Prefab offers speed and affordable quality

Prefabricated housing can be important for delivering this missing middle. By making construction more efficient, it can produce more affordable homes. And reducing waste makes the homes more sustainable.

Precise manufacturing in controlled factory conditions means prefab homes can be more consistently high quality than those built on site. And they can be built in weeks rather than months.

Off-site production also reduces construction activities on the housing site. There’s less noise, traffic and nuisance for neighbours.

This is good for urban areas where housing demand is high and solutions are urgently needed.

Yet only about 5% of new housing is prefabricated in Australia. In contrast, 84% of new houses in Sweden use prefabricated elements.

A proven approach overseas

Experience overseas shows how medium-density prefab can deliver more housing that’s accepted by the community.

A shining example is the Stanley 1351 in Los Angeles, California. It’s an innovative development in an area where space is limited and neighbourhood disturbances must be minimised. It uses prefabricated modules to construct medium-density housing.

The result is a dynamic urban centre with a wide choice of housing types. Its thoughtful design and quality construction enhance the community. The development also minimises carbon emissions.

This approach needs policy support

To realise the goals of the National Housing Accord, governments and everyone else involved in housing construction must work together to develop comprehensive policies. This policy framework should enable the use of emerging construction technologies such as prefab and modular housing.

Moving beyond the prefab stigma requires a multi-pronged approach. Projects will have to be designed, built, financed and executed to have a permanent, high-quality look and feel. They should fit right into the streetscape.

Stanley 1351 demonstrates how prefab construction can do this. The new homes are integrated with the surrounding architecture, making them more welcoming to residents.

As Ed Husic acknowledges, public doubts about the long-term viability of prefabs must also be overcome. Certification of compliance with building codes and standards is a way to ensure structural integrity, durability and safety.

The crucial goal of increasing the supply of homes depends on integrated strategic planning that encourages innovative and efficient methods to achieve good outcomes. This means creating vibrant, sustainable and desirable communities that meet diverse housing needs.

Strategic and participatory planning done well can help uphold people’s fundamental right to housing. Planning that encourages the demonstration and widespread adoption of prefab and modular methods can play an important role in achieving these housing goals for Australians.

Parisa Ziaesaeidi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Prefabs and the ‘missing middle’: how to get Australia back on track to build 1.2 million homes in the next 5 years – https://theconversation.com/prefabs-and-the-missing-middle-how-to-get-australia-back-on-track-to-build-1-2-million-homes-in-the-next-5-years-231373

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stijn Glorie, Associate Professor of Geology, University of Adelaide

In parts of South Australia, long stretches of beach are often blanketed in large patches of pink sand. Strong swells can dump drifts of reddish grains of garnet along the shore – but the origin of these colourful crystals has until now been a mystery.

Garnet is rare in beach sand, as it is destroyed by prolonged exposure to the waves and currents of the ocean. If we find large amounts of garnet in beach sand, it means there must be a local source of garnet-bearing rock. But where is this rock?

The hunt for the source of South Australia’s pink sand took us thousands of kilometres and half a billion years back in time, to a previously undiscovered mountain range we believe is now buried deep beneath the Antarctic ice sheet. Our new study is published in Communications Earth & Environment.

A local source?

Geologists get excited when we find garnet in beach sand or other sediments, because these minerals grow deep in Earth’s crust, in the same kind of conditions in which diamonds are formed.

One way diamonds or garnets can reach the surface is via carrot-shaped volcanic structures called kimberlite pipes. There are kimberlites (and diamonds) to be found in South Australia – at Eurelia, for example. However, these deposits are far from the coast, are not very abundant, and are only around 170–190 million years old – so they are unlikely to be the source of our beach garnets.

Another way garnet can reach the surface is via prolonged erosion.

Garnet typically forms in greater volumes in places where the crust is thick, such as under mountains. As the mountains erode, the garnet may be revealed as a record of the former mountain belt.

So another possible origin for the beach garnets is the erosion of the Adelaide Fold Belt. This mountain belt, which stretched north from Adelaide for hundreds of kilometres, developed between 514 million and 490 million years ago.

A third possible source is the Gawler Craton, a huge slab of ancient rock beneath South Australia with outcrops in the Adelaide Fold Belt. The Gawler Craton contains plenty of garnet, which formed in several episodes between 3.3 billion and 1.4 billion years ago.

To find the source of our beach sand garnets, we set out to find their ages. Very old garnets could be from the Gawler Craton, while younger ones would have the Adelaide Fold Belt as a more likely origin.

A timing mismatch

We analysed several hundred grains of coastal garnet, and found the majority of them formed around 590 million years ago. Far from answering our questions, this result only raised more.

The beach sand garnets were far too young to have come from the Gawler Craton, but too old to have come from the eroding Adelaide Fold Belt. In fact, this time around 590 million years ago is thought to have been a tectonically quiet period in the region, where we would not expect garnet to grow.

Our dating results effectively ruled out a local source for the garnets. So what was left?

Long-distance travellers

If the garnets did not come from a local source, we can say two things about them. First, they must have travelled in a way that would not grind them to smithereens. Second, they must have been stored locally in a protected environment before finding their way onto the beaches.

A possible solution that meets both these criteria can be found at Hallet Cove Conservation Park, located on the South Australian coast around 20 kilometres south of Adelaide.

Here we find exposed sedimentary rocks that were formed around 280 million years ago, during a very icy phase of Earth’s history. The ice is important, because glaciers and icebergs can transport large volumes of rock over long distances without damaging their internal structure.

Furthermore, garnets found in glacial sediments on Kangaroo Island, which were deposited around the same time as the Hallet Cove sediments, were dated to around 590 million years as well. The garnets were not born in these deposits, but were transported into them by ice flow.

A former land bridge

So, if the beach garnets were stored in sedimentary glacial deposits along the South Australian coast since the Late Palaeozoic Ice Age, before being washed onto the shore, where did they come from originally?

During the Late Palaeozoic Ice Age around 280 million years ago, Australia was connected to Antarctica in a large landmass called Gondwana, covered by a massive ice sheet.

Reconstructions of ice flow at this time suggest glaciers would have brought ice northwest from what are now the Transantarctic Mountains in East Antarctica.

The Transantarctic Mountains are the expression of an older mountain belt, the Ross Orogen, which started developing around 550 million years ago but was not experiencing any peak garnet-forming conditions until around 520 million years ago – 60 million years after the garnet in the pink sands. So we are getting warmer, but the Transantarctic Mountains are not a suitable source either.

A hidden treasure

There is one outcrop of rock in East Antarctica where garnets of the right age have been found, near the Skelton Glacier in Southern Victoria Land. However, such a small outcrop could not have produced the large volume of garnet we see on Australian shores.

This outcrop sits at the edge of a colossal area of some 2 million square kilometres buried beneath a thick ice sheet. We postulate that this area contains abundant garnet that grew in an unknown mountain belt around 590 million years ago.

It is currently not possible to sample the rock under this ice sheet to confirm our theory. But it is conceivable that millions of years of ice transport eroded the bedrock beneath, and transported the ground-up rock – including garnets – northeastwards towards the area that has now split into the coastlines of Antarctica and Australia.

The transported rock was then delivered to the South Australian coast some 280 million years ago and stored in sedimentary deposits such as Hallet Cove. Here it sat undisturbed until erosion eventually released the garnets into the sea – and then, finally, onto South Australia’s beaches.

Stijn Glorie receives funding from the Australian Research Council (FT210100906)

Jack Mulder and Sharmaine Verhaert do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. South Australia’s enigmatic pink sand was born in ice-covered Antarctic mountains, new research shows – https://theconversation.com/south-australias-enigmatic-pink-sand-was-born-in-ice-covered-antarctic-mountains-new-research-shows-230781

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daniel Eldridge, Senior Lecturer in Chemistry, Swinburne University of Technology

Spicy foods taste spicy because they contain a family of compounds called capsaicinoids. Capsaicin is the major culprit. It’s found in chillies, jalapeños, cayenne pepper, and is even the active ingredient in pepper spray.

Capsaicin doesn’t actually physically heat up your mouth. The burning sensation comes from receptors in the mouth reacting to capsaicin and sending a signal to the brain that something is very hot.

That’s why the “hot” chilli sensation feels so real – we even respond by sweating. To alleviate the heat, you need to remove the capsaicin from your mouth.

So why doesn’t drinking water help make that spicy feeling go away? And what would work better instead?

Water-loving and water-hating molecules

To help us choose what might wash the capsaicin away most effectively, it’s helpful to know that capsaicin is a hydrophobic molecule. That means it hates being in contact with water and will not easily mix with it.

Look what happens when you try to mix hydrophobic sand with water.

On the other hand, hydrophilic molecules love water and are very happy to mix with it.

You’ve likely seen this before. You can easily dissolve hydrophilic sugar in water, but it’s hard to wash away hydrophobic oils from your pan using tap water alone.

If you try to wash hydrophobic capsaicin away with water, it won’t be very effective, because hydrophilic and hydrophobic substances don’t mix.

Going for iced water will be even less effective, as hydrophobic capsaicin is even less soluble in water at lower temperatures. You may get a temporary sense of relief while the cold liquid is in your mouth, but as soon as you swallow it, you’ll be back where you started.

Instead, a good choice would be to consume something that is also hydrophobic. This is because of an old-but-true adage in chemistry that “like dissolves like”.

The idea is that generally, hydrophobic substances will not dissolve in something hydrophilic – like water – but will dissolve in something that is also hydrophobic, as this video shows:

My mouth is on fire. What should I drink instead of water?

A swig of oil would likely be effective, but is perhaps not so palatable.

Milk makes for an ideal choice for two reasons.

The first is that milk contains hydrophobic fats, which the capsaicin will more easily dissolve in, allowing it to be washed away.

The second is that dairy products contain a protein called casein. Casein is an emulsifier, a substance that helps oils and water mix, as in this video:

Casein plays a large role in keeping the fat mixed throughout your glass of milk, and it also has a strong affinity for capsaicin. It will readily wrap up and encapsulate capsaicin molecules and assist in carrying them away from the receptor. This relieves the burning sensation.

OK but I hate drinking milk. What else can I try?

What about raita? This dish, commonly served with Indian curries, is made primarily from yoghurt. So aside from being its own culinary experience, raita is rich in fats, and therefore contains plenty of hydrophobic material. It also contains casein, which will again help lock up and remove the capsaicin.

Ice cream would also work, as it contains both casein and large amounts of hydrophobic substances.

Some studies have also shown that consuming drinks with large amounts of sugar can relieve spiciness.

What about reaching for that ice cold beer?

This is commonly suggested as a suitable approach to stop the burning. At first glance, this may seem a good idea because capsaicin is highly soluble in alcohol.

However, most beers only contain between 4–6% alcohol. The bulk of the liquid in beer is water, which is hydrophilic and cannot wash away capsaicin. The small amount of alcohol in your beer would make it slightly more effective, but not to any great degree.

Your curry and beer may taste great together, but that’s likely the only benefit.

In truth, an alcoholic beverage is not going to help much unless you go for something with a much, much higher alcohol content, which comes with its own problems.

Daniel Eldridge does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why doesn’t water help with spicy food? What about milk or beer? – https://theconversation.com/why-doesnt-water-help-with-spicy-food-what-about-milk-or-beer-226624

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Benjamin Isakhan, Professor of International Politics, Deakin University

War brings not just unimaginable human suffering, but also the destruction of significant heritage sites.

Israel’s bombardment of Gaza reportedly wrecked the once-majestic Great Omari Mosque late last year. A Russian attack reportedly did significant damage to the Church of the Holy Mother of God in Ukraine. Recent wars in places like Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria have also destroyed other important heritage sites.

We were interested by how locals in conflict zones felt heritage sites should be rebuilt after wars end, and who should do it.

To find out more, we surveyed 1,600 residents in the Syrian city of Aleppo about heritage restoration projects in their city. Aleppo saw untold amounts of human and heritage devastation during a conflict that spanned the years 2012–16.

Our research, published in the International Journal of Heritage Studies, identified four key themes:

• locals don’t want heritage reconstruction to be privileged over security

• they want local religious sites rebuilt as much as significant non-religious sites

• they want heritage sites transformed into more useful structures for the community

• and they want control and agency over the future of their own heritage.

Our findings aren’t only important for Syria. They also hold important clues about how we might approach heritage restoration projects in other post-conflict sites.

Foreign-led restoration efforts

Aleppo was among the most dangerous frontlines in the Syrian war. Rebels and Islamists battled Syrian armed forces for control of the city.

UNESCO has estimated that 60% of the Old City of Aleppo was severely damaged, and about 30% completely destroyed.

After the war concluded, the international community launched various initiatives to protect and reconstruct the heritage of Aleppo.

One prominent example is UNESCO’s ambitious Emergency Safeguarding of Syrian Cultural Heritage program, largely funded by the European Union.

The Aga Khan Trust for Culture (a group that works to preserve and revitalise cultural assets) and the United Nations Development Programme also led programs seeking to restore historic markets across the Old City, in an effort to stimulate economic activity.

Other projects have been funded by Western governments. The US State Department, the British Council and the German Foreign Office have all funded various heritage restoration efforts in Syria.

Key allies of the Syrian government, such as Russia, have also sought to reconstruct heritage sites across Aleppo. Iran, too, has said it’s willing to be involved in such projects in future.

However, little was known about how the people of Aleppo felt about these foreign-led heritage restoration efforts.

For our study, we collaborated with scholars from the Arab Barometer (a nonpartisan research network which surveys citizens in the Arab world).

Is heritage a priority?

We asked respondents:

If you had to choose just three, what do you think are the most urgent priorities for the future of Syria?

The top answers were:

• safety and security (60%)

• electricity, water and other services (56%)

• unemployment and poverty services (35%), and

• a political solution (33%).

Less than one-third (31%) of respondents listed “heritage protection and reconstruction” in their top three urgent priorities for the future of Syria.

Should heritage sites be reconstructed?

We asked survey respondents whether they agreed with the statement:

Heritage sites that were damaged or destroyed during recent conflicts should be restored or reconstructed.

The overwhelming majority (98%) of respondents agreed, while just 2% disagreed.

We also asked:

What would you prefer to see happen to the heritage sites that have been damaged or destroyed during the recent conflicts?

Only 1% of those surveyed wanted to see damaged heritage sites left in ruins.

Of the remainder, the majority (57%) preferred the reconstruction focus less on restoring the historical authenticity of the site and more on transforming it into a more modern facility.

We also asked:

If you had to choose just one, who would you most like to see being entrusted with any restoration or reconstruction work at heritage sites?

By far the largest level of support was for the Syrian government (31%) and ordinary Syrians (20%).

Following at some distance were relatively low levels of support for global agencies. This included UNESCO (13%) or Western governments such as the US, UK or Europe (4%).

The lowest level of support was for regime allies like Russia (2%) or Iran (1%) to spearhead heritage reconstruction projects in Aleppo.

Implications for international actors

Overall, these findings show very few respondents placed heritage reconstruction among the most urgent priorities facing Syria. However, heritage restoration also had broad support from Aleppo citizens.

International actors currently engaged in heritage projects in Aleppo must make every effort to work closely with key partners and communities. This will help ensure their endeavours are better embedded within broader security, developmental and infrastructure investment.

The fact so many survey respondents preferred damaged structures be transformed into new, useful and more modern facilities was also significant.

This highlights a tension between groups like UNESCO, which tend to prioritise preserving the so-called “authenticity” of heritage sites, and the needs of a populace left with little public infrastructure.

Our findings also highlight that if ongoing efforts to reconstruct Aleppo’s heritage are to be embraced by locals, foreign actors will need to foster an authentic grassroots process. This means Syrians should take ultimate responsibility for the reconstruction of their heritage.

Taken together, our findings have important implications for the future of heritage sites in places like Ukraine and Gaza. If peace soon returns to either area, there will undoubtedly be an influx of (mostly) well-intentioned foreign actors who want to reconstruct heritage sites.

However, engaging with the local population is key. We must ask whether locals see restoration as a priority, what form they want it to take, and the extent to which they support foreign-led heritage interventions.

This is perhaps the only way such efforts can have a meaningful long-term impact.

Benjamin Isakhan has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Department of Defence.

Lynn Meskell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Reconstructing heritage after war: what we learned from asking 1,600 Syrians about rebuilding Aleppo – https://theconversation.com/reconstructing-heritage-after-war-what-we-learned-from-asking-1-600-syrians-about-rebuilding-aleppo-229627

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bruce Mountain, Director, Victoria Energy Policy Centre, Victoria University

CSIRO’s latest annual GenCost update, released last month, was billed as Australia’s “most comprehensive electricity generation cost report”.

GenCost has proven to be highly controversial. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton previously levelled robust criticism at the report, specifically the high costs attributed to building nuclear power in Australia, and called for a rerun of the numbers. In turn, CSIRO’s chief made a similarly robust defence of the report and of his agency.

This debate speaks to a key problem with GenCost and similar reports that strive to nail down numbers for the cost of new power sources.

The problem is, these numbers depend on many, many variables. We can’t simply say one type of power is cheaper than another.

Seeking impossible certainty

In 2018, Australia’s energy market operator (AEMO) asked CSIRO to help provide costings as it developed its Integrated System Plan, a blueprint for the development of the electricity system in Australia’s southern and eastern states.

This is where GenCost comes from. Every year, CSIRO experts work to compare the average cost of electricity from different sources, by reporting the capital (construction) and operating costs of electricity generation of different types of power sources.

It also estimates a measure of average costs, formally known as the “levelised cost of electricity”.

Trouble is, CSIRO is trying to do the impossible. We simply cannot know for sure how the economics of specific plants compare. There are many reasons for this.

1. Upfront cost

The cost of renewables is concentrated up front in construction; they cost very little to run. By contrast, the cost of nuclear, fossil fuel and biomass plants is spread out over their lifespan, because they have large fuel costs and cost much more to operate and maintain. Comparing these two groups requires many subjective assumptions on lifetime, fuel costs, closure costs and the operating regime. Different assumptions give radically different results.

2. Technical characteristics

Wind, solar and run-of-river hydro generators produce electricity at rates which vary with the weather, while those with stored fuels (nuclear, coal, biomass, hydro and gas) can produce electricity on demand. Weather-dependent generation is often cheaper than stored-fuel generation but to fairly compare it to stored-fuel generation it requires storage. How much storage you need is heavily contested. Power systems depending only on renewable electricity and storage will be prohibitively expensive with current technologies, according to our research. In South Australia, our modelling shows the first 5 GWh of storage displaces substantially more stored fuel power than the next 15 GWh, which displaces about as much as the next 180 GWh of storage.

3. New transmission

Some solar and wind farms might need new transmission lines to connect their power to the grid, while others can tap into existing transmission lines. Blanket calculations – such as those in GenCost of transmission costs associated with new wind and solar – are not meaningful.

4. Upstream infrastructure

A coal power plant needs a coal mine, a gas plant needs gas fields and pipelines. These costs are often (but not always) fully accounted for in the calculation of stored-fuel generator operating costs.

5. Local environment

Both weather-dependent and stored-fuel generators can damage the local environment and affect local communities through air, land and water pollution and loss of amenity. These are real economic costs, though sometimes called social costs, and impacts vary greatly from one generator to another.

6. Fossil fuels differ

Fossil-fuel generators are worsening global warming, but there are significant differences among different generators. CSIRO has not accounted for greenhouse gas emissions in its comparisons.

7. Substitute or complement?

Generators, storage and transmission can be substitutes, meaning building one avoids building another (locating generators close to cities might avoid building transmission lines), while at other times they can complement (building renewables creates incentives to build batteries). A realistic comparison must account for this. Again, blanket generalisations are not possible – it has to be case by case.

8. Convention

Conventions on the allocation of costs greatly affect comparison. For example, the way transmission costs (or access rights) are allocated between new entrants and incumbents affects comparison of generators. Different approaches produce quite different costs.

9. Assumptions versus reality

There’s often a wide gap between how generators are assumed to operate, and how they actually operate. Once built, generators respond not just to the availability of wind, sun, coal, water, gas and so on, but also to the physical system and market prices. Most coal plants in the National Electricity Market no longer produce electricity consistently, due to being pushed out by renewable generators which cost almost nothing to operate. Similarly, wind farm operators respond to abundant solar by cutting generation during the middle of the day.

GenCost does not account for this. But it can be very significant. Our analysis suggests market prices and transmission could push average costs for solar power in Victoria’s Murray region 62% higher than the market operators is modelling.

Known unknowns

Of these nine factors, GenCost ignores the last five. While the report takes the other factors into account, different approaches for each of these would give very different answers.

Comparing the average costs of wind, solar, nuclear, hydro and coal power sounds like a simple thing to do. But the only plausible answer is: “it depends on many barely known and many unknown things”.

It would be constructive to seek to identify those things and their relationships to each other, rather than attempting to provide certainty.

Our energy market operator and chief scientific agency have got themselves into the position of providing supposedly definitive, objective answers to questions that do not lend themselves to definitive, objective answers.

In response to the claims made in this article, a CSIRO spokesperson said:

GenCost reports are updated annually to provide cost range estimates for new build electricity generation technologies using the best available data and modelling common in the industry.

Open to transparent public consultation and industry input, Gencost is policy- and technology-neutral and provides representative cost range estimates. Specific projects are not in scope for GenCost and investors must do their own deeper studies and analysis to determine all potential costs to a specific project.

What should we do?

In place of commissioning grand plans, our governments should instead broadly indicate their desired direction, consistent with the legislated economy-wide emission reduction targets.

If our government finds it politically unviable to price greenhouse gas pollution, it must provide financial support for clean generation expansion consistent with the legislated emission reduction policy and the governments’ broad direction.

Beyond that, policymakers, CSIRO and the market operator, AEMO, should get out of the way and leave it to the industry, customers and other interested parties to find agreement.

This is roughly how things worked before GenCost and the ISP. We can move forward by winding the clock back.

Bruce Mountain does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Known unknowns: controversy over CSIRO’s electricity report reveals an uncomfortable truth – https://theconversation.com/known-unknowns-controversy-over-csiros-electricity-report-reveals-an-uncomfortable-truth-231691

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jen Purdie, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Sustainability, University of Otago

This week’s announcement of the government’s plans to reopen New Zealand’s territorial waters to oil drilling comes as no surprise. All three coalition parties campaigned on reversing the 2018 ban on offshore oil exploration.

But it flies in the face of projections that demand for oil could peak as early as this decade.

Minister for Resources Shane Jones has confirmed the government plans to reverse the ban later this year and seeks to incentivise oil investors by paying them a bond in case their drilling rights are cancelled by future governments.

The government is also considering weakening a law that requires oil and gas permit holders to pay for the decommissioning and clean-up of wells. This law was passed in 2021 in response to taxpayers having to pick up a NZ$400 million bill for decommissioning the Tui oil field after the financial collapse of the oil company.

The government’s decisions go against projections by many sources, including the International Energy Agency, that demand for oil will decline soon as we electrify the global transport fleet. Consequently, investment in oil exploration is projected to decline too.

Peak oil demand

The use of fossil fuels is due to decline this decade, according to several major oil companies. A 2023 report by Shell projects fossil fuel use dropping rapidly in coming decades, while BP thinks oil demand for combustion has already peaked.

Many large organisations think peak oil demand will happen this decade or the 2030s. This includes the International Energy Agency (IEA), which has predicted demand for oil will peak before 2030.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Exxon Mobil are bullishly stating they see oil growth continuing, albeit at a slower rate, into the 2040s. But at the same time, Exxon Mobil is investing significantly in renewable energy, lithium mining and carbon capture technology.

Even if oil demand peaks later than forecast, the progression from prospecting to exploration and mining can take decades. Projects prospected now may not yield fuel until demand is already in decline.

We have enough oil to make the energy transition

We’ve known for some time that remaining fossil fuels must stay in the ground to meet the Paris Agreement goal of keeping the world below 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures.

The last UN climate summit – COP28 held late last year – agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels” and signalled the “beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era.

But further to this, the IEA has stated we don’t need any new fossil fuel exploration or development, with enough projects already in existence or planned to meet global energy demand forecasts to 2050. New research agrees, saying governments around the world should stop issuing new oil, gas and coal licences.

In line with decreasing oil demand, BP also projects declining investment in new oil and gas infrastructure globally in coming decades. The IEA’s World Energy Investment report notes an ongoing hesitancy about oil and gas investment comes partly from concerns about downward long-term demand projections.

New Zealand does not import natural gas, but our gas fields have been yielding less than forecast for some years. Therefore, to remain independent, some more maintenance drilling or limited new expansion may be needed to see us through the energy transition. But using taxpayer dollars to pay international oil companies to come to New Zealand doesn’t make economic or environmental sense.

The momentum for the energy transition is unstoppable

The good news is that the world’s energy sector, which produces almost 75% of global emissions, is now transitioning at an ever increasing rate. Significant amounts of renewable electricity generation (which is now far cheaper than fossil fuel generation) are being built, with global renewable capacity set to double this decade.

New Zealand’s electricity system is already 85% renewable. Significant investment in renewable generation is under way ($42 billion by 2030) to supply the approximate doubling of electricity needed for the expected mass electrification of transport and industrial heat by 2050.

Renewables are also being built to replace retiring coal plant. Global coal consumption peaked in 2013 and has flatlined since. In 2021, the COP26 global climate meeting in Glasgow agreed to phase down coal, and 60 national (and 51 sub-national) governments have joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance, committing them to phasing out all coal-fired power plants and not building new ones.

Other uses of fossil fuels are in industrial heat and transport. Electric vehicle demand is skyrocketing globally, with the global fleet growing from 300,000 vehicles in 2013 to 41 million in 2023. With prices falling, electric vehicles are expected to reach price parity with internal combustion engine cars as early as 2025.

Most large global vehicle manufacturers have pledged to produce only electric vehicles by 2030 or 2040. And 30 countries, including New Zealand, have signed the Zero Emissions Vehicle declaration to ban new petrol or diesel vehicle sales entirely by 2040.

New Zealand should be enabling the energy transition

The world is moving very rapidly away from coal and oil, and eventually all fossil fuels. A growing number of countries require adherence to Paris Agreement pledges by their trading partners. The recently signed free trade deal between New Zealand and the EU imposes trade sanctions if Paris pledges are not met.

New Zealand’s current emissions reduction policies take us on a track that is much less than our per capita global fair share to limit warming.

New Zealand should be moving away from oil drilling and instead invest in the energy transition, including decarbonisation of industrial heat, subsidising low-emitting vehicles and charging high emitters, better public transport and bike lanes, increased EV charging infrastructure, and “urban mining” (recycling) of batteries and other technology currently filling rubbish dumps.

Jen Purdie has received funding from Deep South Science Challenge in the past, and currently has funding from MBIE’s Smart Ideas fund.

– ref. Global demand for oil could peak soon – NZ’s plan to revive offshore exploration doesn’t add up – https://theconversation.com/global-demand-for-oil-could-peak-soon-nzs-plan-to-revive-offshore-exploration-doesnt-add-up-232154

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adele Pentland, PhD candidate, Curtin University

One hundred million years ago, during the Cretaceous period, much of northeastern Australia was underwater. The inland Eromanga Sea was home to a myriad of marine creatures, from turtles and dolphin-like ichthyosaurs to the bus-sized predator Kronosaurus queenslandicus and other plesiosaurs.

The forested outskirts of the sea were home to dinosaurs and the skies above were filled with birds. But all of them would have been shaded by the largest flying creatures of the age – the pterosaurs.

In November 2021, an avocado farmer turned museum curator named Kevin Petersen discovered a fossilised skeleton near Richmond in Queensland. The previously unknown species turned out to be the most complete pterosaur fossil found in Australia. It comprises around 22% of the skeleton of an animal with a wingspan of some 4.6 metres.

My colleagues and I have now described the fossil in the journal Scientific Reports. It represents a new species of pterosaur, and we’ve named it Haliskia peterseni, meaning Petersen’s sea phantom.

Pterosaur fossils are rare

Pterosaur fossils have been found on every continent. However, they are far less common than fossils of dinosaurs or ancient marine reptiles.

Pterosaurs had hollow, thin-walled bones. This was a great evolutionary adaptation for life in the air, but the lightweight skeletons are not easily fossilised.

Few complete pterosaur skeletons are known worldwide, and most come from a handful of sites with unusually excellent conditions for fossil preservation. When pterosaur bones have been found at other sites, they are often crushed and distorted.

As a result, many pterosaur fossils are the only one of their kind. This includes the oldest flying reptile fossils ever found in Australia.

What the skeleton tells us about how Haliskia lived

The newly described fossil is only the second partial pterosaur skeleton ever found in Australia. It preserves twice as many bones as Ferrodraco lentoni.

Haliskia preserves a complete lower jaw, the tip of the upper jaw, 43 teeth, vertebrae, ribs, bones from both wings, and a partial leg. Also preserved are delicate, spaghetti-thin hyoid bones which would have helped support a strong muscular tongue.

We can tell Haliskia was fully grown when it died because its shoulder bones, and others in the skeleton, have fused.

Almost all pterosaur fossils described from Australia (including Haliskia’s contemporaries Mythunga camara, Aussiedraco molnari and Thapunngaka shawi) have been placed in the same family. These species, collectively known as Anhangueria, have long been viewed as fish-eaters.

Although fish fossils are often found in rocks laid down in the Eromanga Sea, squid-like cephalopods called belemnites are even more common. Based on Haliskia‘s long hyoid bones and conical, interlocking teeth, it would have eaten a diet of fish and squid.

A labour of love

The Haliskia specimen was prepared by fossil enthusiast Kevin Petersen using a combination of pneumatic tools, the paleontological equivalent to a dentist’s drill, and a hand-wielded metal pin. The pterosaur bones are flattened, and although one surface has been exposed, they remain encased in rock to provide stability and support to the fossil.

Kevin spent many hours preparing the pterosaur fossil. However, when we asked if he would like to join the team of researchers studying this specimen, he politely declined, stating he was happy to simply be acknowledged for his efforts.

Without Kevin, this specimen wouldn’t be on public display or known to science. It seemed only fitting that this new species Haliskia peterseni be named in honour of its discoverer.

More fossils to be found

This was not the first pterosaur fossil Kevin had found. He uncovered his first flying reptile fossil a few years earlier, when he visited Richmond in Queensland as a tourist.

Since the discovery of the Haliskia specimen in 2021, even more pterosaur fossils have been found at the public dig pits outside Richmond.

Kevin is proof you do not need a degree to make significant contributions to science and the field of palaeontology. It takes dedication and determination – and it helps to be in the right spot at the right time.

It requires some imagination to visualise pterosaurs at sea, hunting fish and squid-like creatures alongside massive marine reptiles millions of years ago, in what is now the dry Australian outback. But the process is made easier with the fossils in front of you.

Haliskia provides a tantalising glimpse into an ancient ecosystem, and provides hope we might find more complete skeletons of these winged reptiles.

Adele Pentland receives funding from the Australian Government Research Training Program Stipend, and from an Australian Research Council-Laureate Fellowship grant (FL210100103, awarded to Prof Kliti Grice, Curtin University). Adele is a Research Associate at Kronosaurus Korner and the Australian Age of Dinosaurs Museum of Natural History, and host of the podcast Pals in Palaeo.

– ref. 100-million-year-old fossil find reveals huge flying reptile that patrolled Australia’s inland sea – https://theconversation.com/100-million-year-old-fossil-find-reveals-huge-flying-reptile-that-patrolled-australias-inland-sea-231393

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gabrielle Hunt, PhD Candidate, Australian Catholic University

A Victorian school community is reeling after fake, sexually explicit images of female students were generated using artificial intelligence and then shared on social media.

About 50 high school students at Bacchus Marsh Grammar had their images altered. A teenage boy has been arrested and released pending further inquiries. Parents have described the images as “incredibly graphic” and “sickening”.

Unfortunately this is not an isolated case. Last month, a Victorian high school student was expelled after he used AI to generate sexually explicit images of a teacher. This comes amid warnings AI is leading to an increase in sextortion reports.

It also follows multiple cases where males students have used misogynistic and derogatory language about female peers, including a spreadsheet to rank students from “wifey” to “unrapeable”.

Our research shows it is not unusual for young people to harass and abuse their peers. So how can parents and schools respond?

Just because it’s AI does not mean it is OK

Sharing sexually explicit images of children (those under 18) and sharing them without consent (no matter how old someone is) is image-based abuse – even if AI has been used or the images have been altered in some way.

As the eSafety commissioner explains, it is still abuse if the image or video is:

altered or faked to look like you [or] shared in a way that makes people think it’s you, even when it’s not (such as a nude of someone else tagged with your name).

As the commissioner also explains, there are criminal laws that cover this abuse and police may be able to investigate. Last week, the federal government also introduced new laws to parliament to strengthen protections against “deepfakes” (using AI to generate a false depiction of a real person).

But apart from the legal issues, this abuse is also highly damaging and distressing for those involved.

A 2023 investigation by the Stanford Internet Observatory found some AI models are using a database of existing child sexual abuse material to generate new images. This means there are real children being exploited to generate sexually explicit images of more children.

What does the research say?

Research clearly shows sexual abuse and harassment is a gendered issue. Women, girls and gender diverse individuals are disproportionately affected. And men and boys are overwhelmingly more likely to perpetrate these crimes.

The Australian Child Maltreatment Study has found adolescents also make up a substantial proportion of perpetrators of child sexual abuse and sexual harassment. The results, collected in 2021, also showed this has increased over time.

Overall, 18.2% of participants aged 16–24 reported being sexually abused by an adolescent during their childhood, compared to 12.1% of those aged 45 years and over.

More than 15% of women and 24% of gender diverse participants aged 16 and over reported being sexually harassed by an adolescent during their childhood, compared to 5% of men.

For more than 90% of people who experienced peer sexual harassment, it was inflicted by a male peer.

Read more:
There are reports some students are making sexual moaning noises at school. Here’s how parents and teachers can respond

Why is this happening?

As our research indicates, we have a cultural problem with gender-based violence in Australia.

The ease of access to pornography and technology such as AI have likely made this problem worse. Exposure to pornography, including violent content, is happening from a young age. A 2024 Australian study showed more than 52% of men and 32% of women had reported viewing pornography by age 14.

Viewing pornography is associated with the sexual objectification of women. Intentionally viewing violent X-rated material is also associated with a significant increase in the likelihood of sexually aggressive behaviour.

What can we do about it?

While one part of the solution may come from age verification technology for adult websites, research also shows we need to take a primary prevention approach. This means trying to stop this sort of behaviour from happening in the first place.

This necessarily involves changing cultural norms around violence and gender with all young people. Parents and schools are key.

What can parents do?

Parents need to make space for their children to talk about tricky and concerning things. You can do this by:

1. Talking early

Help your child feel comfortable about talking to you by starting conversations early. Conversations about bodily autonomy and boundaries can start in primary school. As your child grows, conversations about consent, healthy relationships, porn and sexting can also start. Listen to what your child has to say.

2. Making the conversations regular

We can’t expect children to welcome or respond well to parents’ questions the first time or every time. So keep conversations short and regular. Be guided by your child.

3. Acting on concerns

Stay calm, talk to and listen to your child. Focus on their wellbeing by asking how they are feeling and what you can do to support them. Also look for signs they might need further support, such as talking to their school, police or making a report to the eSafety Commission.

Read more:
What to do if you, or someone you know, is targeted with deepfake porn or AI nudes

What should schools do?

Schools are also a significant part of the community’s response. Research shows school programs aimed at addressing sexual violence and cultural norms around gender can be effective. Some things schools can do include:

1. Providing training and resources for staff

Staff need clear policies and procedures on how to respond effectively and report to the relevant authorities when there is sexual harassment, assault or child abuse.

2. Comprehensive sex education for students

Research shows sex education can help prevent harmful behaviours by teaching children and young people about healthy relationships, boundaries and informed and enthusiastic consent. This education needs to include consideration of pornography, sexting and online safety.

3. Providing strong school leadership

Leaders are responsible for the culture and practices of their schools. They need to take a zero-tolerance approach to anything that normalises stereotyping, degrading comments, violence or misogyny. Children in a school should be empowered to raise concerns to adults and know they will be listened to and believed.

If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call 1800RESPECT on 1800 737 732 or visit the eSafety Commissioner’s website for help with image-based abuse.

Gabrielle works with the Australian Child Maltreatment Study (ACMS) team as part of her PhD candidature.

Daryl Higgins receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the National Health and Medical Research Council and a range of government departments, agencies, and service providers, including Bravehearts. He is a Chief Investigator on the Australian Child Maltreatment Study.

– ref. Deepfake AI pornography is becoming more common – what can parents and schools do to prevent it? – https://theconversation.com/deepfake-ai-pornography-is-becoming-more-common-what-can-parents-and-schools-do-to-prevent-it-232248

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicola Henry, Professor & Australian Research Council Future Fellow, Social and Global Studies Centre, RMIT University

This week, about 50 female students from Victoria’s Bacchus Marsh Grammar School had fake, sexually explicit images of them shared without their consent on Instagram and Snapchat. Images of their faces, purportedly obtained from social media, were stitched onto pornographic images using artificial intelligence (AI).

Deepfake porn, or what our team calls “AI-generated image-based sexual abuse”, involves the use of AI to create a nude and/or sexual image of a person doing or saying things they haven’t said or done.

Celebrities and public figures, predominantly women, have experienced such abuse for nearly a decade, with various deepfake porn sites and “nudify apps” readily available online.

But as these technologies become more accessible and sophisticated, we’re starting to see this problem creep into our homes and schools. Teens – and even children – are now being targeted.

How widespread is deepfake abuse?

In 2023, my colleagues and I surveyed more than 16,000 adults in ten countries and found that, despite widespread media coverage (particularly in Western countries), the concept of deepfake porn isn’t well known. When informed about it, however, most respondents indicated it should be criminalised.

Among respondents from Australia, 3.7% had been a victim of deepfake porn as an adult. This was the highest rate reported from the countries we surveyed.

At the same time, 2.4% of Australian respondents said they had created, shared or threatened to share a deepfake photo or video of another person without their consent. This too was a higher figure than every other country we surveyed except the United States.

Men were more likely to report being a victim of deepfake abuse, and more likely to report being a perpetrator. Men were also less likely to find the viewing, creating and/or sharing of deepfake pornography to be problematic.

What can you do if you’re targeted?

Image-based abuse can be a distressing experience. But victims should know they’re not alone, it isn’t their fault and there is plenty of help out there. Here are some steps they can take.

1. Report it

Creating or sharing deepfake sexual images of minors is a criminal offence under Australia’s federal child sexual abuse material (“child pornography”) laws. It’s also a criminal offence to share non-consensual deepfake porn of an adult (and a crime to create it if you’re in Victoria).

Whether you’re the victim, or someone you know is, you can report deepfake abuse to digital platforms, to the Australian Centre to Counter Child Exploitation (if the person depicted is a minor) and to the eSafety Commissioner.

If you’re in danger, contact the police or ambulance on triple zero (000). If it’s not an emergency, you can call the Police Assistance Line (131 444) or your local police station. The same steps apply if you’re a bystander who has come across non-consensual deepfake pornography of someone else online.

The eSafety commissioner can take action against image-based abuse under the federal Online Safety Act, and can work with victims and their supporters to get the content taken down within 24 hours. They can also issue formal warnings, take-down orders and civil penalties to individuals and technology companies that fail to take action.

Unfortunately, the deepfake content may continue to circulate even after it is taken down from the initial platform.

2. Seek help

If you’ve been targeted, it’s a good idea to talk to someone you trust, such as a friend, family member, teacher, counsellor or psychologist.

Our website has a list of relevant support services for victim-survivors of image-based abuse, including specialist services for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, migrants and refugees, young people, people with disabilities, people from LGBTQI+ communities and sex workers.

Even if you’re not ready to talk about the experience, you can still find useful information about image-based abuse online, including on the eSafety commissioner’s website.

We’ve also developed a chatbot called Umibot, which provides free confidential advice and support to people who have experienced image-based abuse, including deepfake abuse. Umibot also has information for bystanders and perpetrators.

If you’re Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander, you can check out WellMob. This is an online resource made by Indigenous Australians to provide information on social and emotional wellbeing.

Resources for young people are also available from ReachOut, Beyond Blue, Youth Law Australia and Kids Helpline.

3. Create a digital hash to stop the spread

The United Kingdom’s Revenge Porn Helpline and Meta have developed two digital hashing tools for victim-survivors. These are Stop NCII for adults, and Take It Down for minors.

Anyone in the world can use these tools to generate an anonymous digital hash (a unique numerical code) by scanning the image from their device. This hash is then shared with the companies participating in the scheme (including Facebook, Instagram, Pornhub, TikTok and OnlyFans) so they may detect and block any matches on their platform. You aren’t required to upload the image, which means no one else sees it, nor does it leave your device.

It’s important to note this tool won’t block the image from appearing on platforms that aren’t part of the scheme. You also need to have access to the images in the first place to use the tool.

4. Block, report and distance yourself from the perpetrator (if it’s safe to do so)

You can block the perpetrator(s) through your mobile and on social media, and report them to the relevant platforms and authorities. In the case of platforms, it’s not always clear what will be done once a report is lodged, so it’s a good idea to ask about this.

If the perpetrator is someone you know, such as a classmate or student, authorities can take action to ensure you don’t interact with that person anymore.

Last week, a boy was expelled from Melbourne’s Salesian College after he used AI to create sexually explicit images of a female teacher.

5. Boost your online safety

The eSafety commissioner has step-by-step video guides on a range of online safety topics, from how to change your privacy settings on social media, to how to choose strong passwords.

For women experiencing family or domestic violence, the following resources may also be helpful:

• WESNET’s comprehensive safety and privacy toolkit for women
• The Australian eSafety Commissioner’s online safety checklist
• 1800 RESPECT’s Device Safety page.

Nicola Henry receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC), Google, and the Victorian Attorney General’s Office. She is also a member of the Australian eSafety Commissioner’s Expert Advisory Group.

– ref. What to do if you, or someone you know, is targeted with deepfake porn or AI nudes – https://theconversation.com/what-to-do-if-you-or-someone-you-know-is-targeted-with-deepfake-porn-or-ai-nudes-232175

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lily Hospers, PhD Candidate in Human Environmental Physiology, Heat and Health Incubator, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney

British television host and celebrity doctor Michael Mosley went missing last Wednesday while holidaying on the Greek island of Symi.

Four days later his body was found. The coroner stated Mosley most likely died from natural causes. Greek police say they believe Mosley died around 4pm local time on Wednesday, just hours after he had set off on a walk.

The coroner suggested that, given Mosley’s age (67) and the fact he was walking in the sun in a rocky environment, “at some point the body will be exhausted”.

While a full coroner’s report has not yet been finalised, heat has been implicated as a factor that may have contributed to Mosley’s death. Greek police said Mosley is believed to have died of heat exhaustion after losing consciousness while walking in 40°C temperatures.

This tragedy serves as a timely reminder of the dangers of extreme heat.

When do hot conditions become dangerous?

Physical activity levels and conditions in the environment significantly affect our risk of developing heat-related illness.

When we’re doing physical activity, such as walking, the body creates heat as a by-product. The more vigorous the activity, the more heat is generated. If this heat is not lost, the body can experience dangerous and potentially life-threatening increases in core temperature.

The human body has two main ways to lose the heat generated by the body or gained from the environment.

First, the body attempts to lose heat to the surrounding environment by pumping warm blood to the skin surface. However, when air temperatures are higher than skin temperature (around 35°C), this method becomes ineffective. Instead, the body starts gaining heat from its surroundings.

Second, the body can produce sweat, which has a cooling effect when it evaporates. However, in humid conditions, the sweat on our skin evaporates less readily, as the air already contains plenty of moisture.

Hot temperatures, sun exposure, humidity and physical activity can all present challenges for the human body. When these factors combine, it can be a recipe for disaster.

How is heat exhaustion different from heat stroke?

Heat exhaustion and heat stroke form part of the continuum of heat-related illness. When heat exhaustion is left untreated it can progress to heat stroke.

Symptoms of heat exhaustion can involve weakness, headaches and nausea.

The more serious progression to heat stroke involves reaching an internal body temperature over 40°C and central nervous system dysfunction. This dysfunction can present as confusion or disorientation, and can cause a person to lose consciousness.

Heat stroke is a medical emergency, where central nervous system dysfunction and organ failure can ultimately lead to death. In one study, 58% of people who developed heat stroke died within one month.

Who is most vulnerable?

People may be more vulnerable to the heat due to physiological or behavioural factors. A combination of both can compound the risk.

Physiological vulnerability to the heat can be complex. A person might have a reduced ability to respond to heat stress, such as a reduced capacity to sweat, which is often seen in older adults. Someone may also be more vulnerable because heat worsens their underlying health issues, such as heart disease.

People who are unable to respond behaviourally to heat are also at a greater risk. Regulating activity (such as stopping exercise), changing environment (moving into the shade, for example) and adopting cooling strategies (like cooling the skin with a wet cloth) all offer protection.

Someone may not be able to respond appropriately if they don’t sense the need to act, or are unable to regulate activity and their environment. For example, people may be limited in their capacity to regulate risk if they’re carrying out paid manual labour, taking part in sporting events, or don’t have access to shelter or cooling resources.

Underestimating the risks of extreme heat

When the symptoms of heat illness are not responded to quickly, a dangerous cascade of events can occur, which can ultimately lead to death.

Early action is especially important given the symptoms of heat stroke involve confusion and disorientation, which can impair decision-making. A person who is affected by heat stroke may not be well placed to adapt their behaviour, such as by seeking shade.

Be conservative when contemplating going out in hot weather. This includes not underestimating the environmental conditions, but also not overestimating your capacity to handle them.

Importantly, the air temperature reported on a weather forecast is measured in the shade and does not reflect the added power of the sun.

5 ways to protect yourself

1. Plan ahead — avoid activity during the hottest part of the day

2. If you’re feeling hot and bothered, get out of the heat to a cooler area. This might be indoors or a shaded area outdoors

3. Stay hydrated by ensuring access to, and drinking, non-alcoholic fluids

4. Remove or loosen clothing if you are feeling hot and uncomfortable

5. Attempt to cool down in any way possible. Near a cool body of water? Take a supervised dip. Alternatively, use cold water spray or apply a cool, damp cloth to the skin.

Lily Hospers’ PhD was supported by an Australian Government Research Training Program (RTP) Scholarship.

Jem Cheng holds a Postdoctoral Fellowship Award from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

– ref. Michael Mosley reportedly died from heat exhaustion. How can extreme heat turn deadly? – https://theconversation.com/michael-mosley-reportedly-died-from-heat-exhaustion-how-can-extreme-heat-turn-deadly-232161

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Di Winkler, Adjunct Associate Professor, Living with Disability Research Centre, La Trobe University

Lisa lives with multiple sclerosis. She used to live in aged care after being admitted there in her late 40s.

It isn’t living, it is existing. You are told what to do […] when to go to bed, what to eat, that isn’t life. It affects the person that I am.

Aged care is set up to support older people in their final years. It can’t adequately support younger people with ambitions, friends, goals and years of life to live.

In 2019, the Coalition government committed to measurable, time-bound targets to solve the issue of younger people in residential aged care by 2025. The federal government invested A$50 million in the aim of having no people under the age of 65 entering residential aged care by 2022, and no people under the age of 65 living in residential aged care by 2025.

With only six months to go, the current government is unlikely to meet the 2025 target. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) data released last week shows at end of 2023, 1,470 people aged under 65 (excluding First Nations people aged 50–64) were still living in aged care.

What has changed?

The gains have been mixed.

There has been a welcome decrease (the numbers are down 31% from the end of 2022). But this is largely due to people either dying (47%) or “ageing out” (24%) of the younger classification by turning 65.

The aged-care system is also making it much harder for younger people to enter residential aged care. The implementation of proposed aged-care legislation will further strengthen this position by making most people under 65 ineligible for an aged-care assessment. This will close the door to most new admissions of younger people.

The latest AIHW data describes two younger groups who are eligible for residential aged care “where it is their preference”: First Nations people and homeless people aged 50–64 years.

People who experience long-term homelessness are at risk of experiencing “accelerated ageing”, so they may benefit from early admission to residential aged care. However, it is highly likely hospitals will use “inadequate housing” as a loophole and go back to discharging younger people to aged care once the target period ends.

Significantly, the recent AIHW report excludes First Nations people aged 50–64 years from the data on younger people living in aged care. This may be because of reduced life expectancy (71.9 years for First Nations males, 75.6 for females). But it is critical to ensure each person’s housing preferences are considered to avoid systematic racism.

Moving out is not a magical fix

Moving out of aged care does not guarantee better outcomes or moving to more appropriate housing for younger people. In 2023, 59 people moved out of aged care and into specialist disability accommodation. Lisa moved out into new specialist accommodation a couple of years ago and is now “living life how she chooses”.

However more people (89 in 2023) move out to “closed system” group homes (where a single provider is both the landlord and the provider of intimate supports such as personal care) with National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) support or other accommodation where they are at heightened risk of violence, abuse, neglect and exploitation.

This is in part due to a lack of consistent, expert and independent help for those under 65 to explore their housing options. Young people in residential aged care who have a goal to move out are currently supported by National Disability Insurance Agency staff.

The roll out of housing and living navigators, as recommended by the NDIS Review, may provide the ongoing relationship required to ensure better outcomes for people with a need for access to 24/7 support.

Supply below demand

The NDIS and the market have failed to deliver quality housing and support options for people with a mix of complex disability and health needs, some 5% of NDIS participants.

A decade ago there was optimism in the disability community the NDIS would enable a range of innovative specialist and mainstream housing and support options.

But support provided in disability housing in Australia remains poor quality and expensive. The rising cost of support $10.2 billion per annum provided to the 5% of NDIS participants in supported independent living arrangements represents a quarter of total scheme payments. Ensuring home and living supports are fit-for-purpose will not only drive better outcomes for NDIS participants, it is critical to overall scheme sustainability.

Not driving innovation

There are no incentives for providers to redesign their service delivery and consider how technology might be used to enhance or replace support to NDIS participants.

Providers are financially rewarded for delivering as many hours as possible of in-person support, with no drivers for quality, fostering independence or delivering good outcomes.

The current funding model also reduces or replaces support from friends and the community, yet we know people with disability fare better with services designed to maintain or activate social and community connection and informal support. Lack of social and community connection leaves people with disability vulnerable to abuse, neglect and exploitation.

What a difference 5 years makes

In 2019, the targets seemed achievable.

Five years later the policy is a hollow victory for the hundreds of younger people in aged care and families who have told their story to senate inquiries, the Disability Royal Commission and the media to advocate for change.

Getting the NDIS “back on track” via amended legislation is a positive first step in building a scheme that drives innovative, high quality and cost effective supports in housing. Better is possible and affordable.

Di Winkler AM is an occupational therapist and is the CEO and founder of the Summer Foundation.

– ref. The government is not on track to get every younger person out of aged care by next year. What now? – https://theconversation.com/the-government-is-not-on-track-to-get-every-younger-person-out-of-aged-care-by-next-year-what-now-223007

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Beth Radulski, Manager, Neurodiversity Inclusion, La Trobe University

ABC’s new comedy series Austin follows its 28-year-old namesake (played by autistic actor Michael Theo, from the reality dating series Love on the Spectrum), an autistic man connecting for the first time with his biological father, Julian (Ben Miller).

Julian is married with his own family in London, while Austin lives in Canberra. When they connect, Austin must navigate his complex role as an extramarital child, while Julian’s family must adapt to having a young autistic man in their lives – all while Julian, a prominent author, battles a public relations scandal.

Austin is a unique show in its depiction of autism and neurodiversity. Its first season differs drastically between its first and second halves: challenging both Austin’s family, and the audience, to confront, and then reconsider their assumptions about autistic people.

The comedy in autism

In recent years, some stereotypical representations of autism in the media and pop culture have generated controversy.

The autistic community has often raised concerns about the predominance of autistic characters who are straight, white, cis-gendered, socially awkward men.

Austin possesses many traits frequently used in depictions of these white male autistic characters. He is extremely literal, often misses sarcasm, and is direct to the point of being brutally honest. He is so rule-bound that running three minutes late is considered a moral failing. His engagement with cultural norms is often mismatched with the context, wearing a full suit and tie to a dinner at home.

These traits will undoubtedly resonate for many autistic people. In several scenes, autistic behaviours are used for comedic effect. But as an autistic viewer myself, at times I felt included in the joke, while others, I felt I was the joke.

In one scene that stands out as particularly infantilising, Austin attempts to assert his independence by telling his mother, Mel (Gia Carides), that their pet guinea pig is loose in the house. An (obviously) plush guinea pig then appears, pulled by a string. Austin picks up the toy and proudly exclaims:

I am perfectly able to deal with the situation […] without any outside assistance. I guess that’s where I am now in life: able to stand on my own two feet and deal with adversity alone.

While Austin is well into adulthood, his family often express concerns he is incapable of independence and requires constant adult oversight. Austin’s mother uses a phone app to track his whereabouts; when Austin joins his biological father on a trip to England, his mother and grandfather Bill (Roy Billing) secretly follow him.

Austin is repeatedly referred to as “vulnerable”, without context or examples of how social attitudes and inequities generate this vulnerability. Autistic people are at far greater risk of bullying, sexual assault and victimisation. Austin doesn’t fully explore these issues: they are often overlooked in service of the humour. The show could benefit from a deeper understanding.

Finding its stride

Austin’s primary limitation rests on its limited representation of the autistic community’s diversity and priorities in relation to advancing social inequity.

Issues like masking and camouflaging are depicted positively, but their complexity, and the difficulties which come along with these behaviours, are never discussed, unlike in shows like Heartbreak High.

Having said this, Austin has several strengths. By using stereotypes in early episodes, later episodes challenge both the family’s, and the audience’s, reliance upon these stereotypes.

Although Austin’s family presumes he will not cope well with surprises, Austin is thrilled to receive a last-minute ticket to England with his father. While Austin’s mother is convinced he cannot function independently, he successfully traverses the streets of London without a family member present. Throughout this journey, Austin meets a (presumably neurotypical) woman, Lucy (Boni Adeliyi), in London, and is successful in befriending her and developing a shared romantic interest.

The show also avoids a common pitfall by avoiding the trope of an autistic person as a burden. This trope is acknowledged through a storyline where Julian is encouraged to participate in filming a documentary, pitched as an opportunity to recover from his public relations scandal. When Julian advises his manager and agent Austin is autistic, they both exchange looks of excitement: it is implied Julian will appear to be a heroic, selfless individual for connecting with his autistic son.

The humour is found not in autism itself, but in Julian’s saviour complex. This storyline not only problematises the representation of autism as a burden, but also pushes back against the neurotypical saviour trope, by openly portraying it as problematic.

While there is room to progress further in some areas, there are many steps in the right direction, and a great foundation laid for growth in season two.

Austin is now streaming on ABC iView.

Beth Radulski receives funding from La Trobe University.

– ref. ABC’s new comedy Austin grapples with autism stereotypes – with mixed success – https://theconversation.com/abcs-new-comedy-austin-grapples-with-autism-stereotypes-with-mixed-success-231811

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Libby (Elizabeth) Sander, MBA Director & Assistant Professor of Organisational Behaviour, Bond Business School, Bond University

Australian workers are more likely than those elsewhere to be planning to change jobs, with 74% reporting now is a good time to look for a new position, compared to 52% globally.

In addition, only 25% of workers report feeling engaged or committed to their company’s goals, according to the Gallup State of the Global Workplace 2024 report released on Wednesday.

While engagement is up on the last report, 48% of Australian workers experienced a lot of stress, perhaps explaining the high numbers seeking new jobs.

High levels of bullying, harassment or discrimination, as reported by one in two workers in 2023, are also likely to be a contributing factor.

Why engagement matters

Engagement levels trended upward globally for several years, reaching a record high in 2021 before dropping in 2022 when the pandemic took hold.

When employees are engaged, they bring all aspects of themselves, cognitively, emotionally and physically to work. Engaged employees are likely to find work meaningful and to feel connected to their team, manager and employer.

Research has shown autonomy, work variety and significance, coaching and feedback, opportunities for growth, social support and supportive coworkers improve engagement.

These factors are valuable resources, which become even more important when job demands are high, such as during the pandemic when many employees reported longer hours, higher workloads and increased dissatisfaction.

Without these, engagement can suffer, which, the Gallup report warns, has the potential to cost Australian companies more than A$220 billion annually, equating to 9% of the nation’s GDP.

What can be done?

Gallup’s research found managers or team leaders alone account for 70% of the variance in team engagement.

This is why clear effective leadership is necessary to reduce job dissatisfaction, disengagement and burnout.

While how we work and where we work has changed dramatically since the pandemic, approaches to leadership have been slower to adapt.

Research shows this kind of outdated “zombie leadership” harms individuals, teams and organisations.

The idea that managers must be able to see their employees in the office to know they are working is an example of this.

Autonomy is important

Given autonomy is a key factor in job satisfaction and commitment, leaders need to be willing to update old leadership styles to get the best from workers.

Work follows us everywhere now, and with more people working from home some of the time, being able to switch off is vital for recovery. However, leaders need to model this behaviour.

Recent research showed when leaders engaged in pleasurable post-work activities, their next day mood was significantly better. This resulted in better employee performance and creativity.

A separate survey showed 90% of employees said having their manager show more empathy would make a positive difference to their work life.

Wellbeing and mental health

In addition to 48% of Australian employees reporting significant stress, 15% reported feeling angry a lot of the day and 19% said they felt sadness for a prolonged period the previous day.

In a separate survey of more than 1,000 workers, 87% reported burnout in the past 12 months. This figure has not changed in the last three years.

The survey also found Australians wanted their company to create a better work-life balance (38%), for more people to be hired to get the team’s work done (28%) and for more flexible work arrangements (26%).

Organisations must also provide opportunities for growth and development, meaningful work, and fair pay and benefits.

And finally, company culture plays a key role in employee satisfaction and engagement. More than one in four workers (26%) indicated a toxic work culture hurt their mental health.

The impact of best-practice initiatives is significant. Companies practising best-practice consistently achieved employee engagement levels more than triple the global average.

Libby (Elizabeth) Sander does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Three-quarters of Australian workers think now is a good time to change jobs. This is what managers can do better to keep them – https://theconversation.com/three-quarters-of-australian-workers-think-now-is-a-good-time-to-change-jobs-this-is-what-managers-can-do-better-to-keep-them-232003

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Flavio Macau, Associate Dean – School of Business and Law, Edith Cowan University

Australians are no strangers to a supply crunch. During the pandemic and its aftermath, there were shortages of all kinds of products, from AdBlue diesel exhaust fluid to frozen chips.

This week, many of us were perhaps worried to find ourselves in an eerily familiar situation when Coles limited egg purchases to two cartons per customer in all stores across the country except Western Australia.

The culprit? An outbreak of avian influenza or “bird flu” in Victoria, leading to culls impacting production at five poultry farms. Importantly, this outbreak was not caused by the aggressive H5N1 strain making headlines globally.

On top of that, the production of free-range eggs fluctuates seasonally anyway, and during winter months it can fall by about 20%. The timing of this latest outbreak likely raised concerns that not enough eggs would reach the shelves.

Currently, there is no particular reason for alarm in Australia. The purchase limits are quite modest and restricted to Coles at this stage. But it is important to understand what is happening, and how it differs from similar crises in the past and others currently occurring around the world.

Read more:
With all this bird flu around, how safe are eggs, chicken or milk?

We’ve been here before

Australia has experienced a number of short-lived outbreaks of bird flu since records began in the 1970s. The Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) closely monitors the situation and oversees actions taken by states and territories to limit the spread.

Recent outbreaks occurred in both New South Wales (2012-13) and Victoria (2020-21). Hundreds of thousands of hens had to be culled to control the damage, costing millions each time – not to mention further costs incurred through lost production.

But Australia’s outbreaks are a far cry from the sheer scale of the crisis that has afflicted the United States since 2022.

According to the US Department of Agriculture, almost 6 million birds were affected in the last month alone.

Falling levels of egg production in the US drove egg prices to record highs in 2022, and prices are now rising again despite the industry’s mitigation measures.

But the situation isn’t necessarily unsalvageable.

In 2021, the UK faced its largest-ever bird flu outbreak. Control measures were effective, however, and ultimately enabled the country to declare itself free of the disease by March this year.

Is Australian egg production in real danger?

Geography can help mitigate risk. Data from Australian Eggs, a member-owned not-for-profit company, shows that egg production in Australia is spread out across the states. While New South Wales leads with about 34% of the supply, Queensland and Victoria are not far behind.

Most supply chains are local with limited commercial interconnection.

But this silo-ing doesn’t eliminate all risk, especially as the industry trends away from using scattered, smaller farms to highly efficient supply chains that rely on industrial scale.

Choice of production method can create its own challenges. Most eggs currently sold in Australian supermarkets are free-range. Free-range production means hens can roam freely and interact, and practice a range of healthy natural behaviours.

But free-range production levels are more prone to fluctuate with climate conditions (typically falling in winter), and it’s harder to control biosecurity.

For example, failure to adequately drain waterlogged areas or puddles can create the conditions for contamination. These open areas are not entirely under farmers’ control. Free range means more exposure to natural risks, including diseases.

The current outbreak in Victoria will see hundreds of thousands of birds culled. But that doesn’t mean that farmers in other regions will rise to the challenge and increase their own bird numbers.

The fact it takes three weeks for eggs to hatch, plus 17 weeks for hens to begin laying, means any actions taken now wouldn’t affect egg supply for about five months, when summer is about to start. By then, sunnier and warmer days will likely see free-range egg production rise anyway.

What next?

Since the first detection of bird flu in May, a nationally agreed response plan has been put in place. This plan includes restricting the movement of poultry, poultry products, equipment and vehicles across designated restricted areas.

So far, the measures have been relatively effective. Coles’ decision to limit egg purchases is a precautionary move that may be more related to its own specific supply chain than a widespread drop in egg production. It also serves as a deterrent against panic buying, often triggered by empty shelves.

By springtime, as has happened before (and will again), the situation should return to normal. And Australians will have learned more about managing the fluctuations that have become the norm for eggs and so many other products.

Flavio Macau is affiliated with the Project Management Institute (PMI).

– ref. Coles has imposed limits on egg purchases – but is there actually a crisis? – https://theconversation.com/coles-has-imposed-limits-on-egg-purchases-but-is-there-actually-a-crisis-232148

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katey Thom, Associate Professor in Law, Auckland University of Technology

Jurisdictions around the world are struggling with the growing number of police callouts to respond to people in mental health distress. New Zealand is no exception.

In the past five years, police callouts to mental health incidents have increased by 64% to 77,043.

Despite additional funding for 500 frontline officers in the latest budget, the situation is unlikely to get better.

Calls are growing for a different approach that provides a health-led response to all mental health events. However, uncertainty remains about what this could look like in practice.

Our research shows a shift to a trauma-informed support system could be a game changer. It has the potential to greatly reduce police involvement while improving support for individuals in distress.

The research involved academics from various universities across New Zealand collaborating with NZ Police and people who had experienced a police response while in mental distress.

We spoke with 28 individuals to listen to their experiences of interacting with the police. A specific focus was how police officers either helped or hindered them during times of mental distress.

To better understand the reality for police in this context, we joined them on 53 shifts and spoke to 73 police officers. We also analysed the content of 70 emergency 111 calls coded as related to mental health.

The synthesised findings help us to identify how change could – and should – be considered and applied in New Zealand.

Chronic underfunding creates tensions for police

We found police are immensely frustrated by the chronic underfunding of mental health services. One police officer described how this leads to a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I think as police, we’re go-getters. We like being out there, going to jobs and helping people. So, in some respects, we may do ourselves a disservice because we know that no one else is there to help them.

However, our analysis of 111 calls suggests mental health or social service providers could lead most responses without the need for police.

This shift would require rethinking emergency responses to a mental health crisis and welfare checks police do regularly by stopping by a person’s home to make sure they are okay.

No calls in our sample were transferred to the Earlier Mental Health Response 24/7 triage line managed by Whakarongorau, the national telehealth service.

The minister for mental health, Matt Doocey, has proposed creating an easily accessible national point of contact for mental health alongside fire or ambulance services when calling 111. Our research shows this is worth considering.

Alternative approaches must recognise trauma

Regardless of any proposals, those who shared their stories with us identified prior trauma as the cause of their mental distress. They emphasised the vital importance of police being equipped to recognise that.

One participant, Ana, provided a strong message about what this would mean for police:

Remember that when you are talking to someone in distress, you are talking to all their trauma. The trauma of their parents, of their ancestors. In particular, Māori are still experiencing the impacts of colonisation and their inter-generational trauma. Shift from asking what is wrong with this person, to what has happened to this person. In doing that, you remove the judgment and allow this person to express their hurt.

While police often felt they needed more specialist training, the research identified a basic humanistic response was most important to the people they serve.

When police officers tried to connect, understand, show respect and genuine concern, and explain how they were helping, people described feeling less distressed. Their relationship with the police improved.

Criminalising mental distress

But not all engagements with police were positive. All participants expressed concern over the criminalisation – the use of handcuffs, cells, cars and dogs – of unwell individuals who had not committed any crimes.

Kelly vividly remembers the embarrassment and cumulative distress when police approached her in public:

The police came and stormed this bus, or that’s how it felt from my position on the floor, curled up in a ball. They handcuffed me and dragged me off the bus. And this was on one of the busiest roads in the city.

Experiences of criminalisation were intermingled with examples of biased, racist and discriminatory responses, including by police:

Sometimes, they will hear the whānau name and pre-judge that person and family, rather than appreciate the why behind the offending.

Some participants feared police engagements, including reporting crimes. This is concerning, given individuals who experience mental distress are especially vulnerable to victimisation.

Change required inside and outside of police

When police use a trauma-informed approach that includes basic humanistic qualities, they can minimise experiences of criminalisation and reduce retraumatisation.

Annie explained what this kind of policing meant to her:

The lady talked to me and asked me what had happened. We sat and talked. I felt as if I was a person. It wasn’t like I was a criminal or a non-person. They treated me like a person – not even a person who was unwell.

Any alternative approaches will likely still involve the police, even if this entails minimal involvement to create safety. Police must be confident in using a trauma-informed approach that emphasises humanistic engagement across all frontline policing.

Katey Thom received funding from The Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden Fund for this research.

Sarah Gordon received funding from The Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden Fund for this research.

– ref. Police are frustrated with mental health callouts – here’s how to reduce their involvement and improve support – https://theconversation.com/police-are-frustrated-with-mental-health-callouts-heres-how-to-reduce-their-involvement-and-improve-support-230662

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Hellewell, Research Fellow, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, and The Perron Institute for Neurological and Translational Science, Curtin University

Concussions can occur in many different ways, but they are more likely to occur when playing fast-paced team sports like Australian football, rugby, netball, hockey and soccer.

Unlike many other injuries, recovery from concussion can look different for everyone.

Factors like age, biological sex and medical history can mean some people take longer to recover from a concussion.

Because the effects of concussion can be subtle and symptoms vary day to day, it can be difficult to make assessments of recovery.

Research is also increasingly showing the brain is still healing after “clinical recovery”, or the time by which concussion symptoms resolve.

For these reasons, objective tests can be helpful to understand brain recovery and guide decisions on returning to sport.

Which brings us to baseline concussion tests.

What is a baseline concussion test?

Baseline concussion tests capture a snapshot of an athlete’s brain function at the beginning of a season of play.

When performed in children before commencing sport, baseline concussion assessments tell us what the child’s performance is like prior to any concussion or nonconcussive injuries.

These tests can be carried out in children as young as five.

The benefit of baseline testing is it allows us to compare brain functioning at different stages.

If a child is playing junior sports, a baseline assessment before the start of the season can be a useful tool – if the child sustains a concussion, repeating the same tests lets us compare post-concussion results to the baseline assessment.

If the results are similar, it suggests a child has recovered well. But any differences show there are problems with the way the brain is working that need further attention.

What is the process?

Baseline concussion tests can take several forms but most include tests of cognitive function. These examine our ability to pay attention, plan actions, control our impulses, and retain memory in the short and longer term.

Tests can be performed with paper and pencil, on a computer or tablet, or a mix of both.

Other types of baseline concussion tests may assess balance, motor coordination and eye movement. Cognitive tests often take the form of games which can’t be easily remembered or memorised, making them suitable for repeated testing.

Baseline concussion tests are routinely used in many elite sports to understand injury recovery.

This information can be used to determine whether a player is ready to return to the sports field.

For professional athletes, these tests can also be used to guide medical decisions about whether a player should retire due to ongoing problems from past concussions.

In these cases, a player’s repeated tests after concussion may be persistently different from their baseline, indicating they are having trouble with some aspect of their thinking, planning or understanding, which may worsen if another concussion is sustained.

It is important to note that most children who experience concussion will recover well, and will not experience long-term symptoms from their injury.

For this reason, baseline testing is not necessary in all cases. However, it can be a worthwhile investment as an additional source of information which may be useful later on if a concussion is experienced.

A drawback of baseline concussion testing is it requires a professionally trained person to administer the tests and understand and interpret the results. This means they can be expensive and require appointments, which may be difficult to schedule.

When should testing be done?

For those who do want to pursue baseline concussion testing, parents should first find out whether they are offered by their sporting club or school, if playing school sports.

If not available in these contexts, these tests are offered by many physiotherapists and neuropsychologists.

Baseline tests should be conducted in the pre-season before commencing sport and should be repeated each year regardless of whether a concussion has occurred.

If a child is concussed during the sports season, concussion tests should be conducted at least a week or two after the injury, when symptoms have mostly or fully resolved.

Regardless of whether baseline concussion testing is performed or not, the best thing for concussion recovery is to immediately remove the child from the sports field and keep them out of play until well after their concussion symptoms have resolved.

Following the Australian Concussion Guidelines for Youth and Community Sport and returning to competitive sport a minimum of two weeks after symptoms have resolved will allow the brain proper time to heal and give children the best chance of a full recovery.

Sarah Hellewell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Should I get my child a baseline concussion test before they start junior sports? – https://theconversation.com/should-i-get-my-child-a-baseline-concussion-test-before-they-start-junior-sports-230859

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kim M Caudwell, Senior Lecturer – Psychology | Chair, Researchers in Behavioural Addictions, Alcohol and Drugs (BAAD), Charles Darwin University

It feels like we are living in busy times.

According to the OECD Better Life Index, 12.5% of Australians report working at least 50 hours a week, higher than the OECD average. Many Australians are also working more than one job to buffer against cost-of-living pressures.

Psychology has long been interested in our goals – our mental representations of desirable outcomes. Much of this research is on how we form, pursue and attain goals, plus how goals make us feel. Across studies, we see a consistent pattern of successful goal pursuit and wellbeing. So, having time to work toward our goals is important.

With this in mind, what is the best way to get things done – and how can we get better at achieving our goals, especially when we feel time poor?

Make a list

Most of us approach multiple goals with the age-old “to-do” list. First, you write down everything you need to do. Then you “check” or tick things off as you do them.

One reason to-do lists are useful is because we are more likely to remember things we haven’t completed, rather than things we have. This is known as the Zeigarnik effect.

While to-do lists are easy to write, they don’t always work. There are however various approaches for to-do lists that may improve their effectiveness.

Another thing to consider is the wide range of apps, tools and platforms that can make tasks more fun and outsource mental load. Adding elements of game play like point scoring or competition – called “gamification” – can help people work toward goals in educational and work settings. Similarly, app-based reminders can help people reach physical rehabilitation goals and form good exercise habits.

Finding your why

Researchers have focused a lot on the psychology of why people pursue goals – and how this affects their approach to tasks.

For example, some people want to complete a university degree because they want to get a job. Others may be more interested in developing skills or knowledge. In both cases, there is a desired outcome – albeit with differing reasons.

Our goals can be differentiated by who or what is driving them. Goals that feel like our own, and for which we experience a sense of intrinsic motivation, are known as “self-concordant”. These goals represent enduring personal interests, are aligned with values and are positively linked to wellbeing.

Goal orientation theory offers a similar perspective. Using the same example, you may study so you score well on a test (a performance goal) or because you want to be sure you develop your knowledge (a mastery goal). Mastery goals tend to lead to better results and self-regulation.

Juggling goals – 4 to-do tips

So, what happens when we have multiple – perhaps even competing – goals, or goals that aren’t so enjoyable? We might want to finish writing a report or assignment, then read a few chapters of a textbook – but also go to the gym and binge a few episodes of our favourite TV show.

In such scenarios, psychological science offers some insights into how we might stay task-focused, and on track to tick more items off our to-do list.

1. Beware the planning fallacy. This happens when we underestimate the amount of resources (such as time) it will take to reach a goal. As writer and religious thinker William Penn put it: “Time is what we want most, but what we use worst”. Think through the all the steps and time required to complete your goal.

2. Monitor your progress. Incorporating goal monitoring into an activity can boost progress. And reviewing your estimations and expectations against your actual times and achievements can be used to calculate a “fudge ratio” to aid future planning. For instance, you could multiply your expected time on tasks by 1.5 to help buffer against the planning fallacy.

3. Focus on mastery. Self-concordant goals and tasks feel easier, and their underlying tasks may be less subject to forgetting. Tedious but necessary goals (such as doing the dishes or filling out forms) are less intrinsically motivating. This means planning, reminders and support become more important to goal progress.

4. Plan for derailments. People vary in their ability to plan and might forget to take a goal-directed action at an appropriate time (this could be one reason the average Australian streams 27 hours of video each week). Implementation intentions bring our attention back toward our goals by linking them to an environmental marker. These simple “if-then” plans are shown to help overcome issues with self-regulation. Such a statement might be “if I see the ‘next episode’ icon appear, I will get up and turn off the TV so I can read a chapter of my textbook”.

With time being frustratingly finite, it is inevitable we will run out of time to do all of the things on our to-do list. Finding an approach that works for us will take time and effort. But it’s probably a worthy goal in itself.

Kim M Caudwell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. To-do list got you down? Understanding the psychology of goals can help tick things off – and keep you on track – https://theconversation.com/to-do-list-got-you-down-understanding-the-psychology-of-goals-can-help-tick-things-off-and-keep-you-on-track-230399