Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Anthony Albanese will outline on Thursday a strongly interventionist role for government to make Australia competitive in a world requiring us to “break with old orthodoxies”.

In a major pre-budget address that puts industry policy at the heart of this agenda, the Prime Minister will declare his government “will not be an observer or a spectator – we will be a participant, a partner, an investor and enabler”.

“We have to think differently about what government can – and must – do to work alongside the private sector to grow the economy, boost productivity, improve competition and secure our future prosperity,” he says in the speech, released ahead of delivery.

To anchor the government’s reform program it will this year introduce a “Future Made in Australia Act”.

Although detail is thin, the Act would provide an overarching framework to coordinate government support for industries.

“We will bring together in a comprehensive and co-ordinated way a whole package of new and existing initiatives to boost investment, create jobs and seize the opportunities of a future made in Australia,” Albanese says.

“We want to look at everything that will make a positive difference,” he says, including “investing in new industries – and ensuring that workers and communities will share in the dividend”.

While his speech is not specific about the budget, “future made in Australia” will be a central theme, as will incentives – albeit limited by fiscal constraints snd inflationary pressures.

To underpin the case for the government’s direction, Albanese highlights comparable countries that are investing in their industrial base, manufacturing capability and economic sovereignty.

‘Not old-fashioned protectionism’

“This is not old-fashioned protectionism or isolationism – it is the new competition,” he says.

Australia continued to champion global markets, but “equally, we must recognise that the partners we seek are moving to the beat of a new economic reality”.

“We must recognise there is a new and widespread willingness to make economic interventions on the basis of national interest and national sovereignty.”

Albanese points to the US Inflation Reduction Act which will direct nearly US$400 billion (A$605 billion) in federal funding to support clean energy and the US CHIPS Act which will direct $280 billion (A$422 billion) in new funding to boost research and manufacturing of semiconductors.

Read more:
Economists say Australia shouldn’t try to transition to net zero by aping the mammoth US Inflation Reduction Act

The Prime Minister says the European Union has introduced an Economic Security Strategy, Japan has introduced an Economic Security Promotion Act, the Republic of Korea is re-framing its economic policy around national security, and Canada has tightened foreign direct investment in critical minerals.

“All these countries are investing in their industrial base, their manufacturing capability and their economic sovereignty. And – critically – none of this is merely being left to market forces or trusted to the invisible hand.

“The heavy lifting of economic transition and industrial transformation is not being done by individuals, companies or communities on their own.

“It is being facilitated, enabled and empowered by national Governments from every point on the political spectrum. Because this is not about ideology, it’s about opportunity – and urgency.

“Australia can’t afford to sit on the sidelines”.

Last month two thirds of the leading economists surveyed by the Economic Society of Australia and The Conversation backed “more grants to innovative firms across the entire economy” as a response to the Inflation Reduction Act. Another quarter backed support specifically tied to renewable energy projects.

Only four of the 42 surveyed counselled against extra support for industry.

Albanese is delivering the speech in Queensland, which he talks up as having “a pivotal role” in realising and building   a future made in Australia.

Queensland, in which federal seats are overwhelmingly in Coalition hands, is where Labor needs to make some inroads at next year’s election. At a state level, the Labor government is on the back foot ahead of this year’s election.

Albanese says Australia needs “a new wave of economic reform” “to drive growth, improve competitiveness, lift productivity and create the next generation of prosperity and opportunity”.

In its role as a participant, partner, investor and enabler, the government would be guided by three principles.

“First, we need to act and invest at scale. Moving beyond a ‘spray and pray’ approach where the priority has been minimising government risk, rather than seeking to maximise national reward.

“Second, we need to be more assertive in capitalising on our comparative advantages and building sovereign capability in areas of national interest.

“Our government will be proactive when it comes to backing Australia’s comparative advantages and delivering on our national interests,” he says, pointing to investments made in solar manufacturing, the Hydrogen Headstart program and the Critical Minerals Facility.

“Thirdly, we will continue to strengthen and invest in the foundations of economic success,” ranging from improving the skills base to ensuring a positive regulatory environment.

“We recognise that for Australians to share fully in the rewards, government needs to be prepared to use its size and strength and strategic capacity to absorb some of the risk.

“Only government has the resources to do that, only government can draw together the threads from across the economy and around our nation”.

Albanese says the government is “open to all good ideas” – from business, unions, state and local governments, and across the parliament.

While Australia could not match dollar for dollar the US Inflation Reduction Act, “Australia can absolutely compete for international investment when it comes to our capacity to produce outcomes, the quality of our policies and the power of our incentives”.

Ramping up a rhetoric of urgency, Albanese says: “We need to be clear-eyed about the economic realities of this decade. Recognising that the game has changed – and the role of government needs to evolve.

“Government needs to be more strategic, more sophisticated and a more constructive contributor.

“We need sharper elbows when it comes to marking out our national interest.

“And we need to be willing to break with old orthodoxies and pull new levers to advance the national interest.”

There must be a combination of the private sector and government action to grow the economy.

“Combining market tools, with government action to create wealth and create opportunity.”

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Anthony Albanese puts interventionist industry policy at the centre of his budget agenda – https://theconversation.com/anthony-albanese-puts-interventionist-industry-policy-at-the-centre-of-his-budget-agenda-227565

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Anthony Albanese will outline on Thursday a strongly interventionist role for government to make Australia competitive in a world requiring us to “break with old orthodoxies”.

In a major pre-budget address that puts industry policy at the heart of this agenda, the Prime Minister will declare his government “will not be an observer or a spectator – we will be a participant, a partner, an investor and enabler”.

“We have to think differently about what government can – and must – do to work alongside the private sector to grow the economy, boost productivity, improve competition and secure our future prosperity,” he says in the speech, released ahead of delivery.

To anchor the government’s reform program it will this year introduce a “Future Made in Australia Act”.

Although detail is thin, the Act would provide an overarching framework to coordinate government support for industries.

“We will bring together in a comprehensive and co-ordinated way a whole package of new and existing initiatives to boost investment, create jobs and seize the opportunities of a future made in Australia,” Albanese says.

“We want to look at everything that will make a positive difference,” he says, including “investing in new industries – and ensuring that workers and communities will share in the dividend”.

While his speech is not specific about the budget, “future made in Australia” will be a central theme, as will incentives – albeit limited by fiscal constraints snd inflationary pressures.

To underpin the case for the government’s direction, Albanese highlights comparable countries that are investing in their industrial base, manufacturing capability and economic sovereignty.

‘Not old-fashioned protectionism’

“This is not old-fashioned protectionism or isolationism – it is the new competition,” he says.

Australia continued to champion global markets, but “equally, we must recognise that the partners we seek are moving to the beat of a new economic reality”.

“We must recognise there is a new and widespread willingness to make economic interventions on the basis of national interest and national sovereignty.”

Albanese points to the US Inflation Reduction Act which will direct nearly US$400 billion (A$605 billion) in federal funding to support clean energy and the US CHIPS Act which will direct $280 billion (A$422 billion) in new funding to boost research and manufacturing of semiconductors.

Read more:
Economists say Australia shouldn’t try to transition to net zero by aping the mammoth US Inflation Reduction Act

The Prime Minister says the European Union has introduced an Economic Security Strategy, Japan has introduced an Economic Security Promotion Act, the Republic of Korea is re-framing its economic policy around national security, and Canada has tightened foreign direct investment in critical minerals.

“All these countries are investing in their industrial base, their manufacturing capability and their economic sovereignty. And – critically – none of this is merely being left to market forces or trusted to the invisible hand.

“The heavy lifting of economic transition and industrial transformation is not being done by individuals, companies or communities on their own.

“It is being facilitated, enabled and empowered by national Governments from every point on the political spectrum. Because this is not about ideology, it’s about opportunity – and urgency.

“Australia can’t afford to sit on the sidelines”.

Last month two thirds of the leading economists surveyed by the Economic Society of Australia and The Conversation backed “more grants to innovative firms across the entire economy” as a response to the Inflation Reduction Act. Another quarter backed support specifically tied to renewable energy projects.

Only four of the 42 surveyed counselled against extra support for industry.

Albanese is delivering the speech in Queensland, which he talks up as having “a pivotal role” in realising and building   a future made in Australia.

Queensland, in which federal seats are overwhelmingly in Coalition hands, is where Labor needs to make some inroads at next year’s election. At a state level, the Labor government is on the back foot ahead of this year’s election.

Albanese says Australia needs “a new wave of economic reform” “to drive growth, improve competitiveness, lift productivity and create the next generation of prosperity and opportunity”.

In its role as a participant, partner, investor and enabler, the government would be guided by three principles.

“First, we need to act and invest at scale. Moving beyond a ‘spray and pray’ approach where the priority has been minimising government risk, rather than seeking to maximise national reward.

“Second, we need to be more assertive in capitalising on our comparative advantages and building sovereign capability in areas of national interest.

“Our government will be proactive when it comes to backing Australia’s comparative advantages and delivering on our national interests,” he says, pointing to investments made in solar manufacturing, the Hydrogen Headstart program and the Critical Minerals Facility.

“Thirdly, we will continue to strengthen and invest in the foundations of economic success,” ranging from improving the skills base to ensuring a positive regulatory environment.

“We recognise that for Australians to share fully in the rewards, government needs to be prepared to use its size and strength and strategic capacity to absorb some of the risk.

“Only government has the resources to do that, only government can draw together the threads from across the economy and around our nation”.

Albanese says the government is “open to all good ideas” – from business, unions, state and local governments, and across the parliament.

While Australia could not match dollar for dollar the US Inflation Reduction Act, “Australia can absolutely compete for international investment when it comes to our capacity to produce outcomes, the quality of our policies and the power of our incentives”.

Ramping up a rhetoric of urgency, Albanese says: “We need to be clear-eyed about the economic realities of this decade. Recognising that the game has changed – and the role of government needs to evolve.

“Government needs to be more strategic, more sophisticated and a more constructive contributor.

“We need sharper elbows when it comes to marking out our national interest.

“And we need to be willing to break with old orthodoxies and pull new levers to advance the national interest.”

There must be a combination of the private sector and government action to grow the economy.

“Combining market tools, with government action to create wealth and create opportunity.”

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Anthony Albanese puts industry policy at the centre of his budget agenda – https://theconversation.com/anthony-albanese-puts-industry-policy-at-the-centre-of-his-budget-agenda-227565

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Opposition leader Peter Dutton has accused Foreign minister Penny Wong of “irreparably” damaging Australia’s relations with Israel “for a crass domestic political win.”

In a swingeing attack on Wong, Dutton on Wednesday said her implying the Albanese government was preparing to recognise a Palestinian state had weakened Australia’s international standing.

“It is the most reckless act of a Foreign Minister I have seen in my 22 years in the Parliament,” the Opposition Leader said.

In a Tuesday speech, Wong took Australian policy a small step towards embracing recognition of a Palestine state ahead of a two-state solution, as a pathway to a lasting Middle East peace.

She said the international community was “was now considering the question of Palestinian statehood as a way of building momentum towards a two-state solution”.

On Wednesday, when asked if Australia was willing to recognise Palestine as a state, Wong said the government had made “no such decision”.

“The discussion I want to have is to look at what is happening in the international community where there is the very important debate about how it is we secure long-lasting peace in a region which has known so much conflict,” she told the ABC.

She stressed what needed to happen immediately was for Hamas to release the hostages and for a humanitarian ceasefire.

Wong’s comments on Palestinian recognition have further widened the partisan split over the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Amid a strong reaction from sections of the Jewish community against the Foreign Minister’s comments,

Dutton said the government’s policy positions “have exposed a clear prejudice towards Israel”.

“The Albanese Government has failed to provide the moral clarity which distinguishes the lawful from the lawless, which differentiates civilisation from barbarism, and which discerns the good from the evil,” Dutton said, delivering the Tom Hughes Oration.

In a hard-line speech, Dutton accused Anthony Albanese of failing to grasp the gravity of the rise of antisemitism in Australia.

He said while no one was killed during the October 9 pro-Palestine protests, the “events at the Sydney Opera House were akin to a Port Arthur moment in terms of their social significance”.

Albanese could not see the danger that antisemitism posed to Australia’s social cohesion and way of life, Dutton said.

“The Prime Minister and members of his government have downplayed the unprecedented level of antisemitism afflicting our country by dishonestly treating it as analogous with other forms of prejudice.”.

Dutton said what should have been a clear-cut condemnation of antisemitic incidents from Labor had been clouded by moral equivalence.

“What remains is a national moral fog which has made antisemitism permissible. Penny Wong made that moral fog denser last night.”

Dutton said a future coalition government would bring “the full force of the law” down on Australians who incited or chose violence.

“Non-citizens who incite or choose violence should have their visas cancelled and be deported.

“We will have a zero-tolerance approach for the intolerable behaviours of the few who threaten the Australian achievement for the many.”

Dutton also warned against the danger of “a new generation of Israel haters and anti-Semites” arising, pointing to hundreds of students skipping school to attend pro-Palestinian rallies in November

He said that in classrooms and lecture theatres, young people were “being increasingly taught ‘what to think’, not ‘how to think’”.

“The anti-Israel hate which is being force-fed to young Australians doesn’t only increase incidents of antisemitism – as reprehensible as that is.

“It conditions young minds to reject the liberal democratic values which underpin the Australian achievement.

“Nothing short of a societal-wide effort is required – from parents in homes, educators in schools and universities, and political leaders across governments – to reject the forces of indoctrination and to bring about a renaissance of education.

“That starts with a renewed focus on teaching the basics.

“A Coalition government is committed to seeing a prioritisation on reading, writing and maths, including through explicit instruction teaching.

“We also need to ensure our students have a better grasp of the horrors of the Holocaust as well as the age-old, enduring and shape-shifting nature of antisemitism.”

Dutton said Australians “have had a gutful of the politics of division and the preoccupation with difference”.

“A Coalition Government under my leadership will rebuild our national confidence and camaraderie by focusing on the things which unite us”.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Albanese government has ‘irreparably damaged’ Australia’s relations with Israel: Peter Dutton – https://theconversation.com/albanese-government-has-irreparably-damaged-australias-relations-with-israel-peter-dutton-227572

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rod Sims, Professor in the practice of public policy and antitrust, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ proposed changes to Australia’s merger laws represent important public policy reform.

This is because a market economy, based on companies and individuals pursuing their own interests, only works if those companies and individuals face sufficient competition.

Increasingly over the last 20 or so years in Australia this has not been the case. Our weak merger laws have contributed to this situation.

Announcing the reforms on Wednesday, Chalmers said in recent decades the mark-ups Australian businesses apply to goods and services have grown by more than two percentage points.

He also cited recent analysis by Treasury and the Reserve Bank that found even merely returning competition to the levels Australia experienced 20 years ago would lift GDP between 1% and 3%.

These findings are in line with numerous overseas studies. If Treasury and the Reserve Bank are now doing analysis, this indicates they clearly understand Australia’s competition problem.

Consumers and most businesses will benefit from these reforms: consumers through lower prices, and most businesses by not having to deal with companies that have too much market power.

The increased competition that will result will drive better performance and so productivity. Those calling for measures to drive productivity may have got their wish.

What’s in the reforms?

The federal government is proposing four key changes.

First, mergers that meet a certain threshold, which is yet to be determined, will now need to notify the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) of their proposed transaction and not proceed with it until ACCC approval is given.

Read more:
More mergers to come under scrutiny in another leg of Chalmers’ competition policy

The key change is that this will allow the ACCC to be the decision-maker, not the courts.

These reforms put the experts in charge. Imagine new drugs coming onto the market and the Therapeutics Goods Administration (TGA) having to go to court to prevent this if it felt the drugs were not appropriate; the TGA is the decision-maker, as it should be.

And the ACCC should decide if a merger will substantially lessen competition. These are economic judgements that are poorly suited to first instance decision making by a court.

In the courtroom we have a legal contest over whether the law has been breached. With these reforms the ACCC will decide, after detailed analysis, whether competition is damaged. This change brings Australia’s laws into line with most other developed economies.

Second, the ACCC’s decision can be challenged, but only in the Australian Competition Tribunal, and it will be dealt with by judges that should have competition experience, and who are supported by an experienced competition economist and an experienced businessperson.

Third, and also hugely important, the reforms mean a merger cannot proceed if it creates, strengthens or entrenches substantial market power. Many would think that in these circumstances there would be a substantial lessening of competition anyway, and so the merger would be prevented without the need for this change.

The courts have, however, struggled with the consequences of firms having substantial market power. They have wanted proof it will be used in ways that reflect inadequate competition, even though the merger has not happened yet.

This change introduces an element of commercial common sense into the merger laws. It recognises that substantial market power should be prevented, and certainly not strengthened or entrenched.

Fourth, the cumulative effect on competition of all mergers within the previous three years by the merger parties may be considered as part of the assessment of the notified merger, whether or not those mergers were themselves individually notifiable.

The latest merger that triggered the investigation can be stopped, as presumably will be others that may have followed. This is a clever way to deal with so called “creeping acquisitions”.

What’s not yet in the reforms?

There is important detail to be settled such as the thresholds for compulsory notification. The reforms only work if these are set appropriately.

The treasurer has, however, indicated the thresholds will be set to capture the number of merger assessments the ACCC does now. That is a problem as many more will be caught because they hit the threshold, rather than think they should notify the ACCC as they do under the existing regime.

The ACCC’s approach to this was to be able to “call in” problematic mergers below the thresholds, but the treasurer has rejected this idea. This suggests the thresholds should be set at a lower level than seems to be envisaged.

Read more:
Australia’s biggest chemist is merging with a giant wholesaler. Could we soon be paying more?

The treasurer has, however, suggested the thresholds will also focus on share-of-supply or market-share thresholds to ensure mergers below the monetary thresholds but which otherwise present risks to competition, will be notified to the ACCC.

This could work depending on how they are set. Further, a treasury minister will be given the power to introduce additional targeted notification obligations in response to evidence-based concerns regarding certain high-risk mergers. One would imagine this applying to, for example, certain segments of the retail sector.

The government should be applauded for these reforms. They reflect a healthy approach to increased competition in our economy which will benefit consumers, most businesses, and the wider economy.

Professor Rod Sims is an expert adviser to the Commonwealth Treasury’s Competition Task Force. He was Chair of the ACCC from 2011-2022.

– ref. Tougher merger laws will boost competition and improve performance and productivity – https://theconversation.com/tougher-merger-laws-will-boost-competition-and-improve-performance-and-productivity-227371

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Harris, Professor of Orthopaedic Surgery, UNSW Sydney

In an episode of ABC’s Four Corners this week, the use of spinal cord stimulators for chronic back pain was brought into question.

Spinal cord stimulators are devices implanted surgically which deliver electric impulses directly to the spinal cord. They’ve been used to treat people with chronic pain since the 1960s.

Their design has changed significantly over time. Early models required an external generator and invasive surgery to implant them. Current devices are fully implantable, rechargeable and can deliver a variety of electrical signals.

However, despite their long history, rigorous experimental research to test the effectiveness of spinal cord stimulators has only been conducted this century. The findings don’t support their use for treating chronic pain. In fact, data points to a significant risk of harm.

What does the evidence say?

One of the first studies used to support the effectiveness of spinal cord stimulators was published in 2005. This study looked at patients who didn’t get relief from initial spinal surgery and compared implantation of a spinal cord stimulator to a repeat of the spinal surgery.

Although it found spinal cord stimulation was the more effective intervention for chronic back pain, the fact this study compared the device to something that had already failed once is an obvious limitation.

Later studies provided more useful evidence. They compared spinal cord stimulation to non-surgical treatments or placebo devices (for example, deactivated spinal cord stimulators).

Read more:
How long does back pain last? And how can learning about pain increase the chance of recovery?

A 2023 Cochrane review of the published comparative studies found nearly all studies were restricted to short-term outcomes (weeks). And while some studies appeared to show better pain relief with active spinal cord stimulation, the benefits were small, and the evidence was uncertain.

Only one high-quality study compared spinal cord stimulation to placebo up to six months, and it showed no benefit. The review concluded the data doesn’t support the use of spinal cord stimulation for people with back pain.

What about the harms?

The experimental studies often had small numbers of participants, making any estimate of the harms of spinal cord stimulation difficult. So we need to look to other sources.

A review of adverse events reported to Australia’s Therapeutic Goods Administration found the harms can be serious. Of the 520 events reported between 2012 and 2019, 79% were considered “severe” and 13% were “life threatening”.

We don’t know exactly how many spinal cord stimulators were implanted during this period, however this surgery is done reasonably widely in Australia, particularly in the private and workers compensation sectors. In 2023, health insurance data showed more than 1,300 spinal cord stimulator procedures were carried out around the country.

In the review, around half the reported harms were due to a malfunction of the device itself (for example, fracture of the electrical lead, or the lead moved to the wrong spot in the body). The other half involved declines in people’s health such as unexplained increased pain, infection, and tears in the lining around the spinal cord.

More than 80% of the harms required at least one surgery to correct the problem. The same study reported four out of every ten spinal cord stimulators implanted were being removed.

High costs

The cost here is considerable, with the devices alone costing tens of thousands of dollars. Adding associated hospital and medical costs, the total cost for a single procedure averages more than $A50,000. With many patients undergoing multiple repeat procedures, it’s not unusual for costs to be measured in hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Rebates from Medicare, private health funds and other insurance schemes may go towards this total, along with out-of-pocket contributions.

Insurers are uncertain of the effectiveness of spinal cord stimulators, but because their implantation is listed on the Medicare Benefits Schedule and the devices are approved for reimbursement by the government, insurers are forced to fund their use.

Industry influence

If the evidence suggests no sustained benefit over placebo, the harms are significant and the cost is high, why are spinal cord stimulators being used so commonly in Australia? In New Zealand, for example, the devices are rarely used.

Doctors who implant spinal cord stimulators in Australia are well remunerated and funding arrangements are different in New Zealand. But the main reason behind the lack of use in New Zealand is because pain specialists there are not convinced of their effectiveness.

In Australia and elsewhere, the use of spinal cord stimulators is heavily promoted by the pain specialists who implant them, and the device manufacturers, often in unison. The tactics used by the spinal cord stimulator device industry to protect profits have been compared to tactics used by the tobacco industry.

A 2023 paper describes these tactics which include flooding the scientific literature with industry-funded research, undermining unfavourable independent research, and attacking the credibility of those who raise concerns about the devices.

Read more:
Needless treatments: spinal fusion surgery for lower back pain is costly and there’s little evidence it’ll work

It’s not all bad news

Many who suffer from chronic pain may feel disillusioned after watching the Four Corners report. But it’s not all bad news. Australia happens to be home to some of the world’s top back pain researchers who are working on safe, effective therapies.

New approaches such as sensorimotor retraining, which includes reassurance and encouragement to increase patients’ activity levels, cognitive functional therapy, which targets unhelpful pain-related thinking and behaviour, and old approaches such as exercise, have recently shown benefits in robust clinical research.

If we were to remove funding for expensive, harmful and ineffective treatments, more funding could be directed towards effective ones.

Ian Harris receives funding from research organisations unrelated to spinal cord stimulators. He was interviewed for the Four Corners episode referred to.

Adrian C Traeger receives research funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council.

Caitlin Jones has received funding from Arthritis Australia, Wiser Healthcare, and the Australia/New Zealand Clinical Trials Network (ANZMUSC) in the form of research seeding grants.

– ref. Evidence doesn’t support spinal cord stimulators for chronic back pain – and they could cause harm – https://theconversation.com/evidence-doesnt-support-spinal-cord-stimulators-for-chronic-back-pain-and-they-could-cause-harm-227358

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stefan Caddy-Retalic, Ecologist, School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide

Large areas of concrete and asphalt absorb and radiate heat, creating an “urban heat island effect”. It puts cities at risk of overheating as they are several degrees warmer than surrounding areas.

One of the best ways to keep our cool is to maintain leafy streets, parks and backyards. But in some cities, trees are being chopped down faster than local councils can replace them. Some councils are also fast running out of land to plant trees.

Most of the damage happens on private land. Usually it’s a result of large blocks being subdivided or undeveloped land being opened up for more homes.

Cutting down trees for urban development is well within the law. But tree-protection laws are weaker in some parts of Australia than in others. To ensure our cities remain liveable, some laws will have to change.

Read more:
In a heatwave, the leafy suburbs are even more advantaged

Why cities need trees

Beyond just providing shade, trees reflect heat into the atmosphere. They also cool the air by releasing water through pores in their leaves, acting like evaporative air conditioners.

Trees provide many other benefits such as removing pollutants, limiting erosion and improving public health.

The influential 3-30-300 rule for green cities, proposed by Dutch researcher Cecil Konijnendijk, states:

• you should be able to easily see three trees from the window of your house or workplace

• cities should have at least 30% overall tree cover

• you should have a green space with trees within 300 metres (or a three-minute walk) of your house or workplace.

Read more:
A solution to cut extreme heat by up to 6 degrees is in our own backyards

Why urban trees need better laws to protect them

How do Australians cities stack up against the 30% canopy goal of the 3-30-300 rule?

Brisbane leads the way, with 44% of the City of Brisbane council area blanketed in trees. Hobart also makes the grade, with analysis of aerial imagery from Google showing a tree canopy of 34%.

Other cities have some work to do to meet the benchmark. Recent aerial image analysis shows Perth sitting at 22% cover.

The NSW Department of Planning reported Sydney’s canopy cover
as 21.7% in 2022. The Victorian Department of Transport and Planning reported 15.3% canopy cover across metropolitan Melbourne in 2018.

Green Adelaide reports today that Adelaide’s canopy is a mere 17%. That’s worrying for a city so vulnerable to urban heat.

Read more:
We’re investing heavily in urban greening, so how are our cities doing?

While it can be tempting to compare canopy results, this needs to be approached with caution. The two main techniques for estimating tree canopy, airborne LiDAR (using laser sensing) and analysis of aerial photographs, can produce different results. Even LiDAR data from the same location but analysed at different resolutions can be quite different.

But what’s concerning is that some cities seem to be losing trees very rapidly. An analysis of aerial photographs by Nearmap shows Adelaide suburbs are fast losing trees. A 2021 Conservation Council report estimates Adelaide is losing about 75,000 trees per year across the city. Most are on private land.

Local councils have been planting several thousand trees each year, but are running out of places to plant them. Requirements for clear space on road verges and around powerlines pose major limitations.

If we want greener cities, we also need to take a critical look at the laws on tree removal.

Our team at the University of Adelaide produced a 2022 report on tree-protection laws across Australia. The state government commissioned us to verify a claim that South Australia’s tree-protection laws were the weakest in the nation. We compared state and local council regulations, and the claim turned out to be true.

What’s wrong with the SA laws?

One consideration is the size thresholds used to define trees as “regulated” or “significant”. Of the 101 metropolitan councils outside SA that we investigated, 78% considered trees with trunk circumferences of more 50cm deserving of legal protection. And 95% applied protection when circumferences exceeded a metre. In South Australia, only trees with twice that trunk size get any legal protection.

Another issue is distance exemptions. In South Australia, large trees that would otherwise be protected may be removed if they are within 10 metres of a house or pool. This rule is regularly used to clear entire residential blocks – after all, nearly all trees on suburban blocks are within 10m of a house or pool.

A majority of the interstate councils had no distance exemptions to speak of.

Read more:
Out of alignment: how clashing policies make for terrible environmental outcomes

So what needs to change?

Our findings were among the drivers of a South Australian parliamentary inquiry. An interim report was released last October. It includes sensible, straightforward recommendations to improve the state legislation.

The report suggests reducing the circumference at which trees qualify for protection. It recommends adding crown spread as another criterion. It wisely recommends deleting the distance exemption.

The report also weighs in on fees and fines – the “bottom line” deterrents and punishments for doing the wrong thing. It recommends increasing the fee for legally removing “regulated” trees from $489 to $4,000, for example. However, the value that large trees provide to the community is regularly estimated at hundreds to thousands of dollars per year.

Similarly, a recommendation to introduce a $40,000 fine for illegally removing a “significant” tree pales in comparison to laws interstate. In NSW, illegally removing protected trees can incur fines of over $1 million. To deter big developers, fines must be larger than what they might regard as a reasonable “cost of doing business”.

The report’s recommendation to pay fines and fees into an Urban Forest Fund to grow canopy near areas of tree removal is a good one. Planting trees on the other side of town doesn’t help residents (or biodiversity) when trees are removed locally.

Read more:
Climate change threatens up to 100% of trees in Australian cities, and most urban species worldwide

Cities can draw inspiration from each other

Adelaide’s climate is shifting from a temperate Mediterranean climate to a semi-arid one. Semi-arid climates are less able to grow many temperate plant species and tend to have less vegetation overall. To create an extensive and healthy tree canopy for future generations, we need to act fast and think critically about what we’re planting (and protecting).

We hope the South Australian government will follow the inquiry recommendations, so the state’s tree laws are on par with those of other states and cities.

Cities like Melbourne, which are also becoming warmer and drier, can look toward Adelaide as a future climate analogue. Urban planning is often about learning from other cities and adapting their strategies to local contexts.

To cope with the twin challenges of climate change and rapid urban growth, Australian cities need to work together to actively develop greening strategies. If we don’t, our cities will become hot, dry and barren.

Stefan Caddy-Retalic and Kate Delaporte have received funding from the South Australian Government, University of Adelaide and SA Power Networks to analyse urban forest data across Adelaide.

Kate Delaporte is employed by the University of Adelaide and receives funding from University of Adelaide and the Environment Institute. She is affiliated with TREENET Inc., the Friends of Waite Arboretum and the Friends of the Waite Conservation Reserve, and is a board member of the Playford Trust Inc.

Kiri Marker is affiliated with the University of Adelaide and has previously received funding from the Environment Institute.

– ref. Adelaide is losing 75,000 trees a year. Tree-removal laws must be tightened if we want our cities to be liveable and green – https://theconversation.com/adelaide-is-losing-75-000-trees-a-year-tree-removal-laws-must-be-tightened-if-we-want-our-cities-to-be-liveable-and-green-216990

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Carol Richards, Professor, Queensland University of Technology

Australia’s big supermarkets have been put on notice.

A Treasury-commissioned review recommends making the existing voluntary food and grocery code of conduct mandatory.

The voluntary code sets standards for wholesalers, retailers and suppliers to try and ensure fair negotiations over prices for products. While prescribed under federal legislation, signing up is optional and there are no penalties for breaches.

The review recommends a complaints mechanism, action to deal with retribution against suppliers, obligations for supermarkets to act in good faith and penalties of up to A$10 million for non-compliance.

But will this be enough to change the way supermarkets operate in Australia?

Why we need more action

Government intervention is long overdue. It is well documented that dominance by major players Coles and Woolworths has resulted in unfavourable terms for suppliers, commercial retribution, high levels of food waste and price gouging.

There have been other inquiries into Australia’s big supermarkets. But these have not led to effective change, because previous governments have stuck with voluntary forms of regulation.

We should not be surprised voluntary self-regulation has failed. There is little evidence this approach is effective, especially without a credible threat of enforcement.

Do the recommendations go far enough?

This latest review was commissioned by the federal government and led by former Labor trade minister Craig Emerson. This week, the interim report was released, with a final report due at the end of June.

The recommendations are a step in the right direction but will not deal with the central issue of market dominance.

The review has not recommended forced divestiture laws, despite the Greens calling for them.

Divestiture is the partial or full disposal of part of a business, not considered central to a company’s core operations, through sale, exchange, closure, or bankruptcy.

However, the interim report’s call for a mandatory code is a positive step, although we need to be careful about how it is implemented.

Read more:
Inquiry into supermarkets says make voluntary code of conduct mandatory but don’t bring in divestiture power

Making the code mandatory would mean the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) can fine supermarkets for breaches. Giving the commission powers to issue substantial penalties goes some way to responding to criticisms it is toothless.

But fines might not be enough when supermarkets may be “too big to care”. A $10 million fine for Coles in 2014 did not appear to result in corporate behaviour change.

The interim report also proposes allowing suppliers to request independent mediation if, for example, they believe they are not receiving fair payment for their goods, and, if agreed by both parties, arbitration.

On paper this recommendation seeks to ensure “quick, low-cost dispute-resolution pathways for suppliers”. However, greater clarity is needed on how mediators would be independent.

While the report notes a “list of independent mediators and arbitrators would be maintained by the code supervisor”, elsewhere it is noted mediators “would be engaged by the supermarkets” and an “advantage of these code mediators is they would be very familiar with the supermarkets that engaged them”.

Without having a truly independent process, the fear of retribution will remain a significant weakness of the code.

How do we punish those who don’t comply?

If Australia is going to have a mandatory code, we need think about how less obvious retribution will be handled. This could involve instances where a complaint results in supermarkets avoiding certain suppliers but not stating why.

The code allows for confidential complaints, but how investigations will be able to maintain anonymity is unclear.

Added to this, the notion of “good faith”, which underpins the recommendations in the interim report, is highly subjective, and assumes supermarkets can stop their buying teams from acting against suppliers.

Read more:
8 ways Woolworths and Coles squeeze their suppliers and their customers

It will also be important to ensure the code is unambiguous, to stop supermarkets from using loopholes to exercise market power in other ways. For example, by buying only part of a previously agreed upon order.

What next?

Government regulation of supermarket power is long overdue, following years assuming markets will self-regulate. These recommendations should be seen as a win in theory, however the ACCC will need proper resourcing to effectively regulate a sector used to a free rein.

It is yet to be seen whether these reforms will mean consumers could ultimately be paying less for their food groceries without driving down prices for growers.

The recommendations at this interim stage focus mainly on supply chains and fairer trading. Market share and the dominance of the two major supermarkets is not being addressed which may ultimately mean business as usual for pricing, for now.

With market concentration and anti-competitive behaviour now being scrutinised, it is likely other sectors will seek similar reforms.

Carol Richards receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the End Food Waste CRC, Meat and Livestock Australia.

Bree Hurst receives funding from End Food Waste Australia CRC.

Hope Johnson receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) and End Food Waste Australia CRC.

Rudolf Messner receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the End Food Waste CRC, Meat and Livestock Australia and the QUT Centre for Agriculture and the Bioeconomy.

– ref. Supermarkets need to change the way they operate in Australia. But how do we get them to do this? – https://theconversation.com/supermarkets-need-to-change-the-way-they-operate-in-australia-but-how-do-we-get-them-to-do-this-227445

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Fatemeh Aminpour, Lecturer, School of Built Environment, UNSW Sydney

One in seven people worldwide are neurodivergent. They may have a diagnosis of a neurodevelopmental condition such as attention deficit hyperactivity disorder or autism – or traits that mean their thinking style differs from neurotypical patterns.

Yet in Australia, building accessibility requirements do not adequately address the needs of neurodivergent individuals.

Research shows neurodivergent people benefit emotionally and socially from exposure to nature. “Biophilic design” incorporates natural elements into the built environment, which can benefit neurodiverse users.

Read more:
What does a building need to call itself ‘accessible’ – and is that enough?

What is biophilic design?

The term “biophilia” combines two ancient Greek words which mean life (bio) and love (philia). The biophilia hypothesis is the idea humans have an innate need, desire or tendency to connect with life and living things.

The aim of biophilic design is to create buildings that continue human-nature connection in an urbanised world.

Biophilic design can take three forms, each of which can improve quality of life for neurodivergent people.

1. Natural experiences

Direct experiences of nature can happen through sensory connections: things we see, hear, touch, smell or taste. Natural building elements such as water, plants or animals, natural lighting, and thermal and airflow variability can foster these experiences.

Neurodivergent people often experience sensory overload and feel overwhelmed by sound or other elements around them. But research shows nature can help children with autism tolerate and process information.

Neurodivergent people can have adaptive functioning difficulties, meaning they might struggle with the dynamic social, intellectual and practical demands of everyday life. But research shows the adaptive functioning of children with autism increases in the presence of animals compared to toys.

Natural lighting makes it possible to rely less on intense artificial lighting, which can create challenges for people with sensory differences. Research recommends high-level windows for natural light, with placement that avoids glare and silhouetting.

Read more:
Can’t go outside? Even seeing nature on a screen can improve your mood

2. Experiences like the real thing

Human-nature connection is not limited to being present in nature. Symbolic and metaphorical references to nature can be created through mimicking natural patterns, material, forms and elements in built environments.

Natural patterns can minimise visual discomfort for people who are hypersensitive. In contrast, the tessellated forms, bars, stripes and perforated materials usually found in the modern artificial world can cause visual stress to people with autism. These repetitive patterns can appear to move or shimmer when viewed.

Visual clutter can be distracting to autistic people. Natural materials such as wood, stone and natural fabrics are preferred for an autism-friendly design as they tend to have lower visual clutter. The same rule extends to colour choice, with natural and earth tones (such as browns, greens and blues) preferred.

3. Natural spaces

Built environments can be designed to create experiences similar to those found in nature. This means reflecting the potential for active play, transitional spaces, refuge and spatial organisation encountered in nature.

Some children with autism prefer more active play with varied sensory elements including jumping, running, swinging, sliding and climbing. Outdoor space typically provides the ability to move or fidget freely when the mood strikes. The unstructured nature of outdoor spaces, with fewer social expectations, allows children to release energy and tension.

People with autism need opportunities to regulate their movements between spaces that have different sensory experiences. Transitional spaces such as foyers or anterooms may help avoid sensory overload and support the processing and integration of sensory information.

The use of organic and flowing forms and curved walls or corners help improve transition from one place to another. Soft corners also allow for a preview of the approaching area. This can help reduce anxiety around entering an unfamiliar place or unexpectedly coming face-to-face with others.

Finally, neurodivergent people benefit from retreat spaces. Small spaces, corners, small terraces and calm rooms next to main spaces can help autistic children feel more calm and relaxed.

Co-designing buildings with neurodivergent people

We still have a lot to learn about creating built environments more suited to neurodivergent visitors.

Such designs will benefit from the involvement of people with neurodiverse sensitivities in the design process. All people have a human right to environments they can use and function well in.

Read more:
Neurodiversity can be a workplace strength, if we make room for it

Ilan Katz receives funding from Australian Research Council, National Health and Medical Research Council.

Jennifer Skattebol receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Fatemeh Aminpour does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What is biophilic design? 3 ways ‘green’ buildings work better for neurodivergent people – https://theconversation.com/what-is-biophilic-design-3-ways-green-buildings-work-better-for-neurodivergent-people-226003

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sean Ulm, Director, ARC Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, James Cook University

Pottery was largely unknown in Australia before the recent past, despite well-known pottery traditions in nearby Papua New Guinea and the islands of the western Pacific. The absence of ancient Indigenous pottery in Australia has long puzzled researchers.

Over the past 400 years, pottery from southeast Asia appeared across northern Australia, associated with the activities of Makassan people from Sulawesi (this activity was mainly trepanging, or collecting sea cucumbers). Older pottery in Australia is only known from the Torres Strait adjacent to the Papua New Guinea coast, where a few dozen pottery fragments have been reported, mostly dating to around 1700 years ago.

Why has no evidence been found of early pottery use by Aboriginal people? Various explanations have been proposed, including suggesting that archaeologists simply weren’t looking hard enough. Well now, we’ve found some.

In new research, we report the oldest securely dated ceramics found in Australia from archaeological excavations on Jiigurru (in the Lizard Island group) on the northern Great Barrier Reef located 600km south of Torres Strait. Our analysis shows the pottery was made locally more than 1800 years ago.

Finding pottery at Jiigurru

Back in 2006, several pieces of pottery were found in Blue Lagoon on Jiigurru, 33km off mainland Cape York Peninsula.

Finding pottery at Jiigurru raised some big questions. How old was it? Was it made by local Aboriginal communities? Or was it traded in from elsewhere? If so, where did it come from? Was it from a European shipwreck? Or was it made by the famous Lapita people who colonised the islands of the southwest Pacific?

Our team excavated several more pieces of pottery from Blue Lagoon in 2009, 2010 and 2012.

Read more:
In a first discovery of its kind, researchers have uncovered an ancient Aboriginal archaeological site preserved on the seabed

Preliminary analyses showed most of the pottery was made from local materials. However, despite a lot of work, our efforts to determine the age of this pottery were inconclusive and we were no closer to working out how old it is, or who made it.

In 2013 we went back to Jiigurru to excavate a shell midden on a headland near where the Blue Lagoon pottery was found. A shell midden represents a place where people lived, containing food remains (shells, bones), charcoal from campfires, and stone tools left behind.

Radiocarbon dating showed people started camping at this place some 4,000 years ago, making it the oldest site then known at Jiigurru. But no pottery was found.

A broader search

By 2016 the team had reached a dead end in investigating the few pieces of pottery we had. Instead, working in partnership with Traditional Owners, we turned the research program to the extraordinary Indigenous history of the whole of Jiigurru and began surveying all the islands.

In 2017 we began excavating a large shell midden at Jiigurru located during the surveys.

To our amazement, around 40cm below the surface we began to find pieces of pottery among the shells in the excavation. We knew this was a big deal. We carefully bagged each piece of pottery and mapped where each sherd came from, and kept digging.

The pottery stopped at about 80cm depth, with 82 pieces of pottery in total. Most are very small, with an average length of just 18 millimetres. The pottery assemblage includes rim and neck pieces and some of the pottery is decorated with pigment and incised lines.

The oldest pottery

But we had another surprise waiting for us.

The deepest cultural material was found nearly two metres below the surface, in levels we radiocarbon dated to around 6,500 years ago. This is the earliest evidence for offshore island use on the northern Great Barrier Reef.

The reef shells eaten and discarded in these lowest levels had been buried so quickly that they still have colour on their surfaces. Archaeological sites of this depth and age are uncommon anywhere around the Australian coast.

Radiocarbon dating of charcoal and shells found close to the pottery shows that it is between 2,950 and 1,815 years old, making it the earliest securely dated pottery ever found in Australia. Analysis of the clays and tempers shows that all of the pottery was likely made on Jiigurru.

What does it tell us that we didn’t already know?

The findings are clear evidence that Aboriginal people made and used pottery thousands of years ago.

The archaeological evidence does not point to outsiders bringing pottery directly to Jiigurru. Instead, the evidence shows that Cape York First Nations communities were intimately engaged in ancient maritime networks, connecting them with peoples, knowledges and technologies across the Coral Sea region, including the knowledge of how to make pottery.

They were not isolated or geographically constrained, as once conceived.

The results also demonstrate that Aboriginal communities had sophisticated watercraft and navigational skills in using their Sea Country estates more than 6,000 years ago.

Read more:
How we collaborated in creating The First Inventors to celebrate extraordinary Indigenous peoples’ knowledges and technologies

What else don’t we know?

The Jiigurru pottery gives us new insight into Australia’s history and the international reach of First Nations communities thousands of years before British invasion in 1788.

Very little research has been conducted anywhere on eastern Cape York Peninsula. We think it is very unlikely that Jiigurru holds the only secrets to our country’s peopled past. What other cultural and historical surprises await to be found?

Read more:
Australia’s epic story: a tale of amazing people, amazing creatures and rising seas

Sean Ulm receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Ian J. McNiven receives funding from the Australian Research Council

Kenneth McLean is a Director of the Walmbaar Aboriginal Corporation RNTBC.

– ref. Aboriginal people made pottery and sailed to distant offshore islands thousands of years before Europeans arrived – https://theconversation.com/aboriginal-people-made-pottery-and-sailed-to-distant-offshore-islands-thousands-of-years-before-europeans-arrived-226391

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vaughan Cruickshank, Program Director – Health and Physical Education, Maths/Science, Faculty of Education, University of Tasmania

Many Australians have in recent years been impacted by the cost-of-living crisis, but what about sport participation?

While many Australians, and their children, enjoy participating in sports, it can be a costly passion, hitting the hip pocket with costs such as equipment, registration, coaching and accident insurance.

Read more:
Prepare to hear about an ‘official recession’. Unofficially, we’ve been in one for some time

Which sports are most popular in Australia?

The activities with the highest participation by Australians of different age groups are shown in the table below.

These findings show some obvious differences between age groups – school-aged students participate in more team-based activities that require speed and agility, whereas Australians aged 55 and over prefer to participate in less intense aerobic activities.

Many of these sports are popular across genders and have been for decades. Examples of activities more popular with women and girls include netball and yoga, whereas cycling and Australian football are more popular with men and boys.

The popularity of online/virtual-based physical activities such as Zwift or Nintendo Wii have increased dramatically in the past decade, with nearly 1.5 million Australians estimated to have participated in 2023.

Read more:
Richer schools’ students run faster: how the inequality in sport flows through to health

What are the benefits of playing sports?

Participating in sport can have numerous benefits, including better physical health and reduced risk of disease and improved mental health, self-esteem and life satisfaction.

Studies from countries such as Australia, Japan and the United States have also reported sports participation can improve academic performance and educational outcomes.

What does it cost to play sport in Australia?

The Australian Sports Commission estimates Australians spent A$18.7 billion on sport and physical pursuits in the 2022-2023 financial year, up from $10.7 billion five years earlier.

While the population of Australia has increased by nearly two million during this time, this spending raises questions about the rising cost of participation.

So, what does it cost to participate in sport in Australia?

Many sports can be played for free but the majority of children engage in organised sport, which incurs costs. A number of sports that require expensive equipment (such as golf, surfing or sailing) or are undertaken indoors (such as swimming, gymnastics, dancing) are already too costly for some lower income families to engage with.

Injuries can also involve substantial rehabilitation and treatment funds.

The Australian Sports Commission estimates Australian adults spend an average of $1,304 annually for their sporting endeavours, up from the $796 five years ago.

They are also responsible for the costs incurred by their children’s sport participation – an average cost of $1,369 per child, nearly doubling from the average cost five years ago.

These figures don’t include indirect costs such as new training outfits and footwear, transportation and parking fees.

A similar report of 696 Australians found they were paying an average of around $1,500 to play a sport each season, with major costs including transport, uniforms, footwear, coaching, lessons and equipment. More than one-third of respondents in this study said they had larger credit card debts because of sporting fees.

The table below indicates expenditure on some popular activities in Australia.

Have cost-of-living pressures impacted participation rates?

The cost-of-living pressures in recent years have contributed to the increasing cost of sports participation and the ability of families to pay them.

A recent report by UNICEF Australia stated that more than half of Australian families are making sacrifices in their household budget to pay for children’s sport, or having to take their children out of sports due to rising costs.

A similar report from the United Kingdom stated that while overall activity levels remained relatively stable after lockdown restrictions eased, the majority of people had adapted their behaviour by substituting paid activities with free alternatives, such as walking or cycling instead of driving, and cancelling gym and sports memberships and doing home-based activities instead.

The report stated people from lower socioeconomic backgrounds were most likely to have to change to lower-cost behaviours.

It’s not just individuals and families who are struggling, either. Recent “Your Sport Your Say” research shows one in four small Australian sporting clubs were on the brink of collapse from cost-of-living impacts such as declining registrations, increased operating costs (such as power bills) and reduced volunteer numbers.

Some clubs described participation plummeting to almost zero during the pandemic, and now the rising cost of living has made it even more difficult to recover.

There are concerns that community sporting club closures, and families having to prioritise sports based on affordability, could have a big impact on Australia’s talent pool ahead of the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

What can be done to help?

As we approach these home Olympics, the demand for sporting facilities and opportunities is likely to surge.

Governments need to find sustainable solutions to ensure all Australians can continue to participate in the sports they love, regardless of financial barriers.

Subsidising sport-related costs such as coaching sessions and equipment through increased funding of grassroots clubs, resourcing of informal sport (self-organised, outside of formal participation structures), tax benefits, and vouchers have been suggested as potential strategies for reducing inequities concerning sporting opportunities.

The expansion of grant schemes such as Sporting Schools may also help schools increase sports participation among their students and connect them with local community sport clubs.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. No cash, no play? Have cost-of-living pressures impacted sports participation in Australia? – https://theconversation.com/no-cash-no-play-have-cost-of-living-pressures-impacted-sports-participation-in-australia-226613

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emma Beckett, Adjunct Senior Lecturer, Nutrition, Dietetics & Food Innovation – School of Health Sciences, UNSW Sydney

Hundreds of thousands of people worldwide are taking drugs like Ozempic to lose weight. But what do we actually know about them? This month, The Conversation’s experts explore their rise, impact and potential consequences.

Many have declared drugs like Ozempic could “end obesity” by reducing the appetite and waistlines of millions of people around the world.

When we look past the hype, this isn’t just untrue – it can also be harmful. The focus on weight, as opposed to health, is a feature of diet culture. This frames the pursuit of thinness as more important than other aspects of physical and cultural wellbeing.

The Ozempic buzz isn’t just rooted in health and medicine but plays into ideas of fat stigma and fat phobia. This can perpetuate fears of fatness and fat people, and the behaviours that harm people who live in larger bodies.

Not the first ‘miracle’ weight-loss drug

This isn’t the first time we have heard that weight-loss drugs will change the world. Ozempic and its family of GLP-1-mimicking drugs are the latest in a long line of weight loss drugs. Each looked promising at the time. But none have lived up to the hype in the long term. Some have even been withdrawn from sale due to severe side effects.

Read more:
Ozempic is in the spotlight but it’s just the latest in a long and strange history of weight-loss drugs

Science does improve incrementally, but diet culture also keeps us on a cycle of hope for the next miracle cure. So drugs like Ozempic might not deliver the results individuals expect, continuing the cycle of hope and shame.

Ozempic doesn’t work the same for everyone

When we talk about the results of studies using Ozempic, we often focus on the average (also known as the mean) results or the maximum (or peak) results. So, studies might show those using the drug lost an average of 10.9% of their body weight, but some lost more than 20% and others less than 5%

What we don’t talk about as much is that responses are variable. Some people are “non-responders”. This means not everyone loses as much weight as the average, and some don’t lose weight at all. For some people, the side-effects will outweigh the benefits.

Read more:
Considering taking a weight-loss drug like Ozempic? Here are some potential risks and benefits

When people are on drugs like Ozempic, their blood sugar is better controlled by enhancing the release of insulin and reducing the levels of another hormone called glucagon.

But there is greater variability in the amount of weight lost than the variability in blood sugar control. It isn’t clear why, but is likely due to differences in genetics and lifestyles, and weight being more complex to regulate.

Treatment needs to be ongoing. What will this mean?

When weight-loss drugs do work, they are only effective while they’re being taken. This means that to keep the weight off people need to keep taking them long term. One study found an average weight loss of more than 17% after a year on Ozempic became an average net weight loss of 5.6% more than two years after stopping treatment.

Short-term side effects of drugs like Ozempic include dizziness, nausea, vomiting and other gastrointestinal upsets. But because these are new drugs, we simply don’t have data to tell us if side effects will increase as people take them for longer periods.

Nor do we know if effectiveness will be reduced in the long term. This is called drug tolerance and is documented for other long-term treatments such as antidepressants and chemotherapies.

Biology is only part of the story

For some people, using GLP-1-mimicking drugs like Ozempic will be validating and empowering. They will feel like their biology has been “normalised” in the same way that blood pressure or cholesterol medication can return people to the “normal” range of measures.

But biologically, obesity isn’t solely about GLP-1 activity with many other hormones, physical activity, and even our gut microbes involved.

Overall, obesity is complex and multifaceted. Obesity isn’t just driven by personal biology and choice; it has social, cultural, political, environmental and economic determinants.

A weight-centred approach misses the rest of the story

The weight-centred approach suggests that leading with thinness means health will follow. But changing appetite is only part of the story when it comes to health.

Obesity often co-exists with malnutrition. We try to separate the effects in research using statistics, but focusing on the benefits of weight-loss drugs without addressing the underlying malnutrition means we aren’t likely to see the improved health outcomes in everyone who loses weight.

Read more:
How dieting, weight suppression and even misuse of drugs like Ozempic can contribute to eating disorders

Obesity isn’t an issue detached from people

Even when it is well-intentioned, the rhetoric around the joy of “ending the obesity epidemic” can harm people. Obesity doesn’t occur in isolation. It is people who are obese. And the celebration and hype of these weight-loss drugs can reinforce harmful fat stigma.

The framing of these drugs as a “cure” exacerbates the binary view of thin versus fat, and healthy versus unhealthy. These are not binary outcomes that are good or bad. Weight and health exist on a spectrum.

Ironically, while fat people are told they need to lose weight for their health, they are also shamed for “cheating” or taking shortcuts by using medication.

Read more:
Ozempic, the ‘miracle drug,’ and the harmful idea
of a future without fat

Drugs are tools, not silver bullets

The creation of these drugs is a start, but they remain expensive, and the hype has been followed by shortages. Ultimately, complex challenges aren’t addressed with simple solutions. This is particularly true when people are involved, and even more so when there isn’t even an agreement on what the challenge is.

Many organisations and individuals see obesity is a disease and believe this framing helps people to seek treatment.

Others think it’s unnecessary to attach medical labels to body types and argue it confuses risk factors (things that are linked to increased risk of illness) with illness itself.

Regardless, two things will always remain true. Drugs can only ever be tools, and those tools need to be applied in a context. To use these tools ethically, we need to remain mindful of who this application harms along the way.

Read the other articles in The Conversation’s Ozempic series here.

Emma Beckett has received funding for research or consulting from Mars Foods, Nutrition Research Australia, NHMRC, ARC, AMP Foundation, Kellogg, and the University of Newcastle. She works for FOODiQ Global and is a fat woman. She is a member of committees/working groups related to nutrition or the Australian Academy of Science, the National Health and Medical Research Council and the Nutrition Society of Australia.

– ref. Drugs like Ozempic won’t ‘cure’ obesity but they might make us more fat-phobic – https://theconversation.com/drugs-like-ozempic-wont-cure-obesity-but-they-might-make-us-more-fat-phobic-219309

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Edward Doddridge, Senior Research Associate in Physical Oceanography, University of Tasmania

In 1897, the former whaling ship RV Belgica left Antwerp in Belgium and set sail due south. It was the first voyage of what would become known as the Heroic Age of Antarctic exploration. It did not go to plan.

After a six-month voyage, they begin encountering sea ice. Several times the ship is caught in the ice for a day or two. A crew member falls overboard and is lost to the icy waters. But the crew presses on, making measurements as they go. Expedition leader Adrien de Gerlache records the process:

At noon we made a deep sea sounding, with a long series of temperatures at various depths. We lowered five hundred and sixty metres of wire, and brought up a cup of blue clay. The temperature at the surface was at the freezing point, and at the bottom slightly warmer.

Their discovery of deep warmer water was important. It’s since been named Circumpolar Deep Water. In our time, this water is getting warmer and warmer, as oceans absorb nearly all the extra heat trapped by burning fossil fuels. Antartica’s seemingly impregnable ice is now melting from beneath.

But in 1898, the ice is strong. On March 4, the crew find themselves unable to move. As the southern winter looms, the ice thickens on the surface of the Bellingshausen Sea, to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula. The RV Belgica is trapped.

A winter of permanent night

The crew were about to become the first people to spend a winter south of the Antarctic Circle, enduring months of constant night. The expedition was largely unprepared for the bitter cold and darkness. But the first mate, a 25-year-old Norwegian named Roald Amundsen, felt differently. He had joined the expedition in search of adventure. He was not disappointed. “We must no doubt spend the winter here, and that is fine with me,” he wrote in his journal. Five days in, he writes:

One starts to get familiar with the idea of wintering. The cold has begun sharply. The ice is firm around us and without ridges. This is starting to get interesting.

As time drags on, the crew suffer from scurvy. The expedition leader and his second in command both become so ill they write their wills and retire to bed. Amundsen and the American surgeon Frederick Cook take over leadership.

Of this time, Cook writes in his journal:

we jog along day after day, through the unbroken sameness […] the darkness grows daily a little deeper, and the night soaks hourly a little more colour from our blood

When pale sunlight returns in spring, it’s not enough to free the ship. By January 1899, the crew become desperate. Facing a second winter on the ice, they cut a channel through the sea ice and use explosives to widen it. After a month’s brutal labour, they free the ship and sail for home.

They had been in the ice for just over a year, and had drifted more than 2,000 kilometres as the sea ice moved with the currents.

A little over a decade later, an expedition led by Amundsen would be the first to reach the South Pole.

And the RV Belgica? The ship spent its later years transporting coal, as demand for fossil fuels grew and grew.

What could assail the ice continent?

The scientists and explorers aboard the Belgica did not waste their time. They meticulously recorded their location, the thickness of the sea ice and the weather.

In our time, the data gathered by the scientists and crew of the Belgica is proving invaluable.

Working with the team from the Australian Earth System Simulator, we used data from the Belgica’s crew and satellite imagery to recreate the ship’s path and compare it to what’s happening now.

If the RV Belgica had been in the same location in the Bellingshausen Sea off the Antarctic Peninsula in 2023, rather than 1897, the story would have been very different.

In the intervening 126 years, we set about changing the Earth’s climate in earnest. Fossil fuels gave us vastly more energy. But they came with a sting in the tail – burning them released long-buried carbon dioxide and other gases into the atmosphere, where they magnify the natural greenhouse effect which keeps the Earth from icing over. Almost all of the heat trapped by our activities has gone into the oceans.

In the north, the Arctic sea ice began to disappear from the 1970s onwards, shrinking by about 12% per decade.

Antarctica’s sea ice has held out for longer. A ship like the Belgica could have been stuck in sea ice as late as 2015.

No longer. The heat is on. In the last eight years, Antarctic sea ice has begun to melt in earnest. In the last three years, the melt has accelerated. Now, new research suggests Antarctic sea ice has undergone an “abrupt transition”.

In March 2023, the RV Belgica would have sailed through open waters where pack ice once groaned and cracked. There was almost no sea ice in the Bellinghausen Sea from February to April.

At the beginning of 2024, Australia’s marine research vessel, RV Investigator travelled 12,000km from Hobart down to the Antarctic coastline and back to Fremantle. What was shocking was how easy it was.

When sea ice is at its thickest, even modern vessels can struggle to navigate it. But on this voyage, scientists aboard collected vast amounts of data from dark oceans that should have been covered by thick sea ice.

The years of melting

In the ice continent, climate change is beginning to cause long-feared changes.

The Antarctic Peninsula – the long, trailing tail closest to South America where most tourist ships land – is starting to green. Algae is carpeting more snow, while the two native species of flowering plant, Antarctic pearlwort and Antarctic hair grass, are expanding their range on islands near the peninsula.

In the 19th century, going to Antarctica was a perilous journey, pushing the limits of human endurance. But as the sea ice retreats, it becomes easier and easier for tourist cruise ships to make the journey from ports in Argentina and Chile. Tourist numbers have increased tenfold since the 1990s, rising especially fast in the last two years.

The ice continent has long been defended by the fast, cold water currents in its oceans. But now the heat is getting in – through the water, not the air. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current is speeding up and warmer water is getting into these icy seas. Antarctica’s sea ice is being eaten from below.

That means the so-called Doomsday Glacier is now at risk. The Thwaites Glacier is the size of Great Britain, and holds enough water to singlehandedly raise sea levels 60 centimetres. But the real threat is what’s behind Thwaites. The glacier is a plug, blocking much larger ice rivers from reaching the ocean. If it goes, sea level rise will accelerate.

Antarctica was once a place where humans found their limits. Enduring endless cold and dark and drifting helplessly in the ice, the crew of the Belgica found theirs. As Frederick Cook wrote, the Antarctic night had:

a naked fierceness in the scenes, a boisterous wildness in the storms, a sublimity and silence in the still, cold dayless nights, which were too impressive to be entirely overshadowed by the soul-despairing depression.

A little over a century later, we are finding the ice, too, has limits.

Read more:
Devastatingly low Antarctic sea ice may be the ‘new abnormal’, study warns

Edward Doddridge receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Stuart Corney has received funding from the Australian government through the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Co-operative Research Centre

Annie Foppert does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The limits of ice: what a 19th century expedition trapped in sea ice for a year tells us about Antarctica’s future – https://theconversation.com/the-limits-of-ice-what-a-19th-century-expedition-trapped-in-sea-ice-for-a-year-tells-us-about-antarcticas-future-224063

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Anderson, Professor and Director, Indigenous Research Unit, Griffith University

Every year, NAPLAN tests are used to see how Australian students are tracking in reading, writing and maths.

And every year, we see analysis that Indigenous students are lagging behind their non-Indigenous peers.

But what if we looked at this data in a different way?

We have developed a new way of analysing NAPLAN data. This compares Indigenous students with other Indigenous students. And in doing so, we get more nuanced information about what is working and where.

This represents a significant shift from the focus on “closing the gap”, which repeatedly highlights deficits in Indigenous students’ progress.

Read more:
‘Once students knew their identity, they excelled’: how to talk about excellence in Indigenous education

Our research

Our new quantitative method is called “within-cohort, peer matching”. Unlike the traditional method of comparing Indigenous students’ academic performance with non-Indigenous students, this approach compares Indigenous students with their Indigenous peers from the same grade and type of geographical location across the country.

In our study, we analysed ten years of NAPLAN data (2009–2019) on Indigenous students. This included information on a student’s grade, the state or territory where they live, and whether they live in a major city, regional, remote or very remote area.

We then used several statistical models to investigate differences in students’ performance.

What we found

Our study uncovered patterns that would not have been obvious if we focused solely on the disparity between Indigenous and non-Indigenous students’ performance. These include:

• the impact of remoteness: previous analysis has shown the more a remote a student is, the less likely they are to succeed at school. This is largely due to the difficulty of attracting teachers and a lack of adequate resources. But by diving into more detail, our analysis shows there are considerable differences when comparing states and territories within the same remoteness category.

• different subjects have different results: maths results appear to be less impacted by a students’ remoteness, compared to reading and writing. We don’t yet know why this is the case. But now we can focus research efforts on better understanding this finding.

Where are performances high?

We looked at how well Indigenous students did in NAPLAN across different states and territories within matching remoteness categories, relative to their Indigenous peers in the same grade.

An example of this was comparing Year 3 students in major cities across New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory. This helped us find out where students are doing better or worse.

Some examples where students are performing well relative to their matched peers include:

• in major cities: primary students in New South Wales and primary and secondary students in Victoria

• in regional areas: Year 3 in New South Wales, primary and secondary schools in Victoria and primary and secondary schools in Tasmania.

• in remote areas: primary schools in New South Wales, primary and secondary schools in South Australia.

• in very remote areas: primary and secondary schools in New South Wales, primary and secondary schools in Queensland.

Where are performances low?

Our analysis also showed there are some groups of Indigenous students who are doing relatively poorly compared to their Indigenous peers. This includes:

• in major cities: Year 9 in Queensland, primary and secondary schools in Western Australia and primary and secondary schools in South Australia.

• in regional areas: Year 7 in Western Australia, primary and secondary schools in the Northern Territory and primary schools in South Australia.

• in remote areas: primary schools in Western Australia, primary and secondary schools in the Northern Territory.

• in very remote areas: primary and secondary schools in the Northern Territory and primary schools in South Australia.

Read more:
There’s an extra $1 billion on the table for NT schools. This could change lives if spent well

What does this mean?

The findings of our research challenge the traditional framing of Indigenous students as progressing poorly compared to their non-Indigenous peers. They also provide opportunities for more nuanced policy interventions and more targeted research. Using this approach, we can study the school-level factors that impact performance within the cohort of Indigenous students.

For example, we can perhaps look at what is working for Year 3 students in regional NSW and apply that elsewhere. Or we can look at what is not working for Year 9s in major cities in Queensland.

We can also look more closely at why numeracy performance seems to be less impacted by the degree of remoteness.

Ultimately, it highlights the need for alternative measures of Indigenous success, beyond merely “closing the gap”.

Peter Anderson has received funding from Australian Research Council.

Zane M. Diamond has received funding from the Australian Research Council.

Kerrie Mengersen and Owen Forbes do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. We have a new way of looking at data that shows what’s working for Indigenous school kids and what isn’t – https://theconversation.com/we-have-a-new-way-of-looking-at-data-that-shows-whats-working-for-indigenous-school-kids-and-what-isnt-225900

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Edith Jennifer Hill, Associate Lecturer, Flinders University

The new documentary Quiet on Set investigates children’s television station Nickelodeon from the late 1990s to the early 2000s.

The five-part series highlights the abuse many child actors faced while working for the station. The child stars on these shows – now adults in their 30s – share their experiences working on the Nickelodeon sets.

The series raises questions about the protections in place for child stars, both in and out of the film industry.

There are clear parallels between the lack of protection for working actors and the exploitation of children who are the faces of popular YouTube, Instagram and TikTok accounts. These children face no clear working hours, massive opportunities for financial abuse, and insufficient protection from sexual predators.

Quiet on Set

In Quiet on Set, stories are recounted of child actors and their parents feeling uncomfortable on set, the use of inappropriate humour for children’s television, and the difficulties women had in and out of the writer’s room.

More seriously, the series also spotlights three men who became convicted sex offenders while working on Nickelodeon shows: Brian Peck, Jason Handy and Ezel Channel.

Peck, convicted of sexually abusing child star Drake Bell, is at the centre of much of the series. Episode four highlights the many people in the industry who wrote letters of support for Peck while he was in court.

The series explored how these men were put in positions of power and were able to exploit the young people who were often in their care.

What laws protect child stars?

The majority of events in Quiet On Set took place in California. There is no single consistent law in the United States that protects the safety of minors in the entertainment industry. Each state has a different standard of protection. Laws vary for standards around breaks, education, and parental or guardian involvement on set.

The most famous protection for child stars is the Coogan Law, which protects the money a child star earns.

The Coogan Law was enacted in the mid-1930s after child star Jackie Coogan successfully sued his family for spending the money he earned. Under the current iteration of the law, 15% of the child’s income must be placed in a fund which cannot be accessed by the parents, to be made available to the child once they turn 18. This law is only in effect in California.

Quiet On Set highlights how other laws – specifically child labour laws – were violated on the Nickelodeon shows. And, worse, how the industry failed to protect the children from predators. After his conviction, Peck was hired at the Disney Channel to work on another children’s television show.

Unfortunately, the enforcement of laws around children working in entertainment varies between countries, production companies and individuals.

There are current laws in the United States and Australia that protect children’s working rights, but it is clear these are not consistently enforced. Alyson Stoner, a former child star, has spoken about how the unsafe working conditions she endured left her malnourished and chronically stressed. Labour laws were in place at this time.

Child stars online

Now, child stars are not limited to those who appear on television shows or in movies. Many children rise to fame online, with arguably larger potential audiences and different risks for exploitation.

Current research shows children do not like their images or activities being shared online without their consent. Likewise, we are becoming increasingly aware of the dangers of sharing footage of children online when it comes to sexual predators.

The now adult children of family channels have begun speaking out about the exploitation they received at the hands of their parents when the intimate details of their lives were shared without their consent. One child reflected in an interview in Teen Vogue on the immense pressure she was under when she realised her family’s income relied on her performance on YouTube.

The eldest daughter of the 8 Passengers YouTube family, Shari Franke, has spoken about her abusive home life since her mother’s arrest late last year. The 8 Passengers Family is one extreme example of the exploitation that can run rampant for children online.

Many popular channels are now removing their children’s faces from their public profiles. These are often influencers who share their children, rather than family channels with content that revolves entirely around their children’s lives. Popular creator Maia Knight has said now her children are toddlers she has “decided not to show them anymore […] I’m making a choice for my daughters to protect them.”

Read more:
YouTube influencer Ruby Franke will go to prison for child abuse. What are the ethics of family vlogging?

Better laws, better enforcement

As is clear from the reporting in Quiet on Set, and the stories of children who grew up on social media, the existing laws protecting child stars need to be more tightly enforced. These laws should also be expanded to more comprehensively protect the health, finances and safety of children of online influencers.

For all working children, there needs to be clear and hard limits on working hours, education and finances. Currently, hundreds of thousands of children are publicly shared online by parents and receive no formal protection.

If we agree as a society it is acceptable to have children working in these online spaces, we need to have safeguards in place to protect them, and education for parents about the real risks they are subjecting their children to.

Quiet on Set is now streaming on Binge.

Read more:
Britney Spears’ memoir is a reminder of the stigma and potential damage of child stardom

Edith Jennifer Hill does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Quiet on Set highlights how we don’t keep child stars safe – in Hollywood or online – https://theconversation.com/quiet-on-set-highlights-how-we-dont-keep-child-stars-safe-in-hollywood-or-online-226826

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Shaw, Professor of Politics, Massey University

Thirty years ago, frustrated with wild swings of the policy pendulum and the arrogance of successive Labour and National governments, New Zealanders changed the electoral rules.

The old first-past-the-post (FPP) electoral system was replaced with the mixed member proportional system (MMP). At the time, it was thought this would bring the curtain down on an era of executive overreach.

It was hoped multiparty and minority governments would not be able to throw their weight around in the way single-party majority governments can – and often did.

In a nation lacking the constitutional guardrails found elsewhere – including a formally codified constitution, a second parliamentary chamber with powers of legislative oversight, or a top court able to rule on the probity of executive action – electoral law reform looked like a recipe for policy moderation.

Supporters of the new system also anticipated it would encourage a more cooperative style of politics, one that eschewed the combative, winner-takes-all approach practised by successive FPP governments.

Right now, that optimism can look naive. Following three years under a Labour administration that behaved like a minority government despite commanding an outright parliamentary majority, New Zealanders find themselves governed by a three-party coalition more than willing to use its numerical advantage.

Urgency and executive power

The National-led coalition has passed more legislation under parliamentary urgency during its first 100 days in office than any other MMP government.

Some will see the parliamentary process being truncated in this way as an indication of efficiency. But it’s equally fair to say there can be a price to pay for avoiding public scrutiny.

Legislation that is not fully stress-tested in select committees can be flawed. And questions can reasonably be raised about the legitimacy of a process that denies public input in this way.

Read more:
The government’s first 100 days have gone largely to plan – now comes the hard part

Other initiatives, too, are tipping the balance of power towards the political executive. The government’s fast-track consenting legislation places significant powers in the hands of just three ministers who will have the discretion to overrule judicial decisions.

In effect, they can personally consent to big developments, potentially including roading, mining or tunnelling projects which critics fear might be fast-tracked regardless of their environmental impact.

Also telling was the response to outrage over inadequately communicated changes to disability funding. Future decisions on operational matters affecting Whaikaha-Ministry of Disabled People will now be signed off directly by cabinet.

Aside from what it says about the political future of disability issues minister Penny Simmonds, this represents an unusual degree of direct ministerial involvement in the activities of a government department.

Read more:
NZ is in recession – so far there are few signs the government has a plan to stimulate and grow the economy

A diminished public service

There are other signs all is not well between ministers and officials. Most obviously, significant numbers of public service jobs are being lost.

The fast-track consenting legislation was prepared without a comprehensive analysis of the possible impact on fisheries and the conservation estate. And ministers are making selective use of regulatory impact statements.

In short, the capacity of the public service to speak truth to executive power is being diminished.

Beyond these and other instances of executive muscle flexing, the government’s perceived lack of compassion and rhetorical style have also drawn attention.

Examples include the possible cancellation of the school lunch programme, a seemingly cavalier approach to transparency requirements around ministers and the tobacco industry, the apparent celebration of job losses in the public sector, and the suggestion the state might decide whether school pupils are unwell enough to stay home.

Some of this will pass. But there are reasons to be wary of the return of combative executive politics.

Balancing government and the governed

Left to their own devices, ministers do not always make good decisions. Parliamentary democracy is essentially government by amateurs. Ministers are professional politicians but are rarely experts in their portfolios. They learn on the job and need help doing so.

Much of this assistance comes from officials. The point of a professional public service is to provide expert advice to those with the democratic mandate to take decisions.

Ministers are free not to act on official advice. But deciding on a course of action without at least listening to and considering that advice undermines well-informed decision-making.

Read more:
Return of the ‘consultocracy’ – how cutting public service jobs to save costs usually backfires

There is a reason to keep some distance between politics and administration, too. When politicians make decisions about the operations of government departments and ministries, there is the danger that partisanship wins out over considerations of fairness and justice. Removing that gap risks politicising public administration.

Finally, perhaps the biggest threat of the centralisation of executive power is to the integrity of democratic norms and institutions.

In politics there is always a trade-off between decision-making efficiency and democratic effectiveness. New Zealand’s democratic institutions are not the preserve of ministers – they belong to everyone. And they need to endure long after an administration has left the executive stage.

MMP was designed to strike a better equilibrium between government and the governed. Losing that balance would contribute to the kinds of democratic erosion being seen elsewhere in the world.

Richard Shaw does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. NZ’s government is relying on executive power to govern – that’s not how MMP was meant to work – https://theconversation.com/nzs-government-is-relying-on-executive-power-to-govern-thats-not-how-mmp-was-meant-to-work-227352

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has unveiled new rules governing company mergers that will bring more of them under scrutiny to ensure they don’t worsen competition.

Chalmers says the changes – to be formally announced on Wednesday in a speech released ahead of time – are the most substantial in nearly half a century.

A mandatory notification system will be brought in and the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission will be the single decision-maker on all mergers.

At the moment, notifications are voluntary, with the ACCC having the right to object after they have gone ahead.

Mergers above a yet-to-be-determined threshold and mergers which could significantly change market concentration will have to be notified and approved before going ahead.

Under the new plan, which will apply from January 1 2026, mergers will be approved within 30 working days unless the ACCC raises concerns.

Firms will also have the option of “fast track” ruling within 15 working days.

Fees for service and a public register

Chalmers says the new system will be simpler, because there will be a single, streamlined path to approval, removing duplication and standardising notification requirements.

“It will be more targeted, because mergers that create, strengthen or entrench substantial market power will be identified and stopped while those consistent with our national economic interest will be fast tracked,” the Treasurer says.

For the first time, firms wanting to merge will be charged cost recovery fees, scaled to reflect the complexity and risk of the merger. The Treasury expects them to be in the range of $50,000 to $100,000, with additional fees for a review by the Competition Tribunal. The fees will not apply to small businesses.

All mergers considered by the ACCC will be listed on a public register, with brief information including the names of the merger parties, a short description of the transaction and affected products and/or services, and the review timeline.

Merger parties will be able to engage in confidential pre-notification discussions as to the information to be provided to the ACCC but will no longer be able to receive an “informal view” ahead of formally applying.

The ACCC looked at an average of 330 mergers annually over the past decade – only about a quarter of the total. Chalmers expected the workload to remain at about 330, but said it was more likely to be “the right 330” those with the greatest potential to cause harm.

The Treasurer hasn’t gone as far as the Competition and Consumer Commission wanted. The ACCC wanted merger parties to have to satisfy it that a merger was not likely to substantially lessen competition in order to get approval.

Several firms objected that this “reversed the onus of proof”, effectively introducing a presumptive ban on mergers.

Read more:
Inquiry into supermarkets says make voluntary code of conduct mandatory but don’t bring in divestiture power

The changes are part of the Albanese government’s general shakeup of competition rules which also includes a review of the food and grocery code governing supermarkets undertaken by former government minister Craig Emerson and proposals to loosen “non-compete” clauses governing workers who change jobs.

“Australia’s competitiveness has been declining since the 2000s,” Chalmerssays. “We see this in increasing market concentration.”

“Australia is one of only three OECD countries that doesn’t require compulsory notification of mergers.”

The Treasurer is also appointing merger specialist Philip Williams to the ACCC and updating the ACCC’s statement of expectations.

Williams is a former Professor of Law and Economics at the University of Melbourne.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. More mergers to come under scrutiny in another leg of Chalmers’ competition policy – https://theconversation.com/more-mergers-to-come-under-scrutiny-in-another-leg-of-chalmers-competition-policy-227454

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Foreign Minister Penny Wong has taken Australian policy a modest step towards embracing recognition of a Palestine state ahead of a two-state solution, as a pathway to a lasting Middle East peace.

In a Tuesday speech to an Australian National University national security conference dinner, Wong said the international community was “now considering the question of Palestinian statehood as a way of building momentum towards a two-state solution”.

She quoted British Foreign Secretary David Cameron saying the United Kingdom “will look at the issue of recognising a Palestinian state, including at the United Nations”. Cameron said this could make a two-state solution irreversible.

“There are always those who claim recognition is rewarding an enemy,” Wong said. But she said this was wrong on two counts.

“First, because Israel’s own security depends on a two-state solution.

“There is no long-term security for Israel unless it is recognised by the countries of its region.

“But the normalisation agenda that was being pursued before [the] October 7 [Hamas attacks] cannot proceed without progress on Palestinian statehood,” she said.

Read more:
Explainer: what is the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?

“Second, because there is no role for Hamas in a future Palestinian state. Hamas is a terrorist organisation which has the explicit intent of the destruction of the state of Israel and the Jewish people.”

Wong said recognising a Palestinian state, which could only exist beside a secure Israel, did not just offer the Palestinians “an opportunity to realise their aspirations”, but also “strengthens the forces for peace, and undermines extremism”. The extremists included Hamas, Iran and Iran’s other proxies in the region.

“A two-state solution is the only hope to break the endless cycle of violence,” she said.

The Albanese government’s policy has been for a two-state solution, but it has not embraced recognising a Palestinian state ahead of that. The Labor Party’s 2023 national platform goes further. It says Labor:

• supports the recognition and right of Israel and Palestine to exist as two states within secure and recognised borders

• calls on the Australian government to recognise Palestine as a state.

In her speech Wong said Israel “must make major and immediate changes” to its military operations, in order to protect civilians, journalists and aid workers.

Earlier this week, the government appointed a former chief of the Australian Defence Force, Mark Binskin, to probe Israel’s investigation of its attack on a World Central Kitchen’s aid convoy in Gaza. Seven people, including Australian Zomi Frankcom, were killed.

Wong said Israel “must comply with the binding orders of the International Court of Justice, including to enable the provision of basic services and humanitarian assistance at scale”.

The foreign minister also expressed dismay at the local divisions the conflict is causing.

“It is disheartening to witness the number of Australians that increasingly struggle to discuss this conflict without condemning their fellow citizens. This imperils our democracy. We have to keep listening to each other; respecting each other.

“But I have heard language demonstrating that people are losing respect for each other’s humanity. Blatant antisemitism and Islamophobia.”

She condemned politicians who were “manipulating legitimate and heartfelt community concern for their own ends.

“The Greens political party is willing to purposely amplify disinformation, exploiting distress in a blatant and cynical play for votes. With no regard for the social disharmony they are fuelling. This is not some game. There are consequences.

“At the same time, [Opposition Leader Peter] Dutton reflexively dismisses concern for Palestinians as ‘Hamas sympathising’. On this, and in his approach to the world, Mr Dutton needs to decide if he wants to be a leader in difficult times – or if he wants to continue being a wrecking ball, making those times even more difficult.”

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Penny Wong floats recognising Palestine ahead of two-state solution to help path to peace – https://theconversation.com/penny-wong-floats-recognising-palestine-ahead-of-two-state-solution-to-help-path-to-peace-227456

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

There are just five weeks until the budget, and the usual lists of winners and losers.

Among last year’s winners were said to be single parents, renters and first home buyers. Among the losers were said to be vapers, truckies and consultants.

It’s also how we talk about tax: winners and losers.

On budget night when the changes to the Stage 3 tax cuts are re-announced, we will be told they will make Australians earning less than A$146,000 better off than they would have been, and Australians earning more than that worse off.

It’s terribly predictable, but it’s also worse than that.

It’s part of a way of thinking and reporting that makes changes that could actually help us all but impossible.

Making that point passionately in Canberra last week (and apologising for his own role in it) was Ken Henry, the government’s chief economic advisor as head of the treasury between 2001 and 2011, and the head of the 2009 Henry Tax Review.

Confessions of a gun for hire

Here’s Henry’s confession. Shortly after he joined the treasury as a tax expert in the lead up to the 1985 tax summit convened by Treasurer Paul Keating and Prime Minister Bob Hawke, he was taken aside by his treasury bosses and told that arguments about making Australia better weren’t going to fly.

His bosses told him:

all anybody would want to know is what was in it for them, how many dollars they were going to get – and that’s also all the newspapers would want to know, that’s what they would be printing on their front pages.

What would matter would be the immediate “overnight” estimates of who would win and who would lose. Beyond not costing the government money, nothing else would matter – not how the changes would affect society by funnelling people into doing some things and not others, and not what they would do over time to the people who won or lost on the night.

So, presumably with a heavy heart, Henry developed a computer model that spat out nothing more than immediate winners and losers and ignored what the changes would do to Australia over the longer term.

Winners and losers are (almost) beside the point

Henry says looking back it is easy to understand “why we did what we did”.

“But I can’t escape the sense that, in developing the tools that facilitated squabbles over the distribution of gains and losses among the households of Australia in 1985, we were participating in a conspiracy against future Australian households.”

Henry did it again in 1991, helping build a much more precise version of the model whose exaggerated precision was used by Keating as prime minister to kill off Opposition Leader John Hewson’s plan for a raft of tax changes including a 15% goods and services tax and to end Hewson’s political career.

But it worried Henry. He says Hewson’s package was a genuine attempt to break out of the winners and losers mindset and argue for changes on the basis they would benefit society.

Then in the late 1990s Henry dusted off the model again and used it in the opposite way – to help the Howard government get its 10% GST over the line.

‘A conspiracy against future Australians’

Henry’s confessions tell us about more than the flexibility needed to serve the government of the day. They tell us the thing that matters most, making Australia work better, can’t really be spoken about.

And the more it is not spoken about – the more people are merely told what’s in it for them – the harder that is to change.

Here’s what Henry says really matters, and what he says he tried to address in his 2009 tax review.

The things we ought not to celebrate, and ought to tax heavily, are plunder, dumb luck, and a “finders keepers” approach to resources, including mineral resources.

The things we ought to avoid taxing are income from work, the normal rates of return for businesses, and transactions. They are the things we need more of to build our living standards.

We need less tax on wages and ordinary profits, and more on unreasonably large profits, windfall capital gains, wealth and the use of land and natural resources.

By lightly taxing the things that take from the rest of us (such as the superprofits earned by companies with some sort of monopoly) and heavily taxing the things that give to the rest of us (such as the effort put in by workers and businesses) we are bequeathing to our children a weaker Australia.

What’s winning matters as much as who’s winning

As Henry puts it, Australia’s young people are being screwed – not necessarily by what the tax system is doing to them today (although what negative gearing and capital gains tax breaks are doing to home prices can’t be helping) but by the way we are choking attempts to build the economy they’ll inherit.

He says we’ve got to level with them and level with ourselves, which is also the argument of Mixed Fortunes, the book detailing the history of tax reform in Australia by former treasury official Paul Tilley that Henry launched.

It’s an argument the journalists in the audience (I am one) and the lone politician in the audience (Assistant Treasury Minister Andrew Leigh) should take to heart. I’ll still report on winners and losers next month, but I’ll also aim to go deeper – to report on what’s winning as well as who.

Read more:
Former treasury head Ken Henry says we need ‘big bang’ tax reform rather than incremental change

Peter Martin is Economics Editor of The Conversation.

– ref. How about this time we try, just try, to report on budgets and tax differently? – https://theconversation.com/how-about-this-time-we-try-just-try-to-report-on-budgets-and-tax-differently-227353

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachael Jefferson, Lecturer in Human Movement Studies (Health and PE) and Creative Arts, Charles Sturt University

Recent changes in New Zealand sporting dress codes have led to a collective sigh of relief in women’s gymnastics. No longer will competitive gymnasts be penalised for accidentally revealing their underwear while performing.

Indeed, Gymnastics New Zealand (GNZ) has finally modernised its uniform rules, allowing girls and women to wear shorts or leggings over their leotards – just like their male counterparts.

This decision was made following a survey of 200+ female competitive gymnasts, with GNZ concluding every gymnast should feel “comfortable and safe” when performing. Prior to this, female gymnasts could have points deducted from their final score for unintentional dress code violations while in action.

Read more:
Uniform discontent: how women athletes are taking control of their sporting outfits

Dress code pushbacks

This timely rule change builds on the past few years of global advocacy in which some sportswomen have voiced concerns about how their outfits impede their movements and their confidence. It’s hardly surprising to hear this, since women’s sport uniforms have traditionally been tailored for men, making some athletes uncomfortable.

Dress code pushbacks from female athletes led to worldwide outrage in July 2021, when Norway’s beach handball team was fined €1,500 (A$2,407) for wearing shorts instead of regulation bikini bottoms at a European Championship match.

The European Handball Federation officials claimed the shorts were “improper clothing” that defied the International Handball Federation (IHF) uniform rules.

A few months later in October, the IHF quietly modified its beach handball regulations, advising “female athletes must wear short tight pants with a close fit”. Meanwhile, men’s shorts must be “not too baggy” and they can be longer than the women’s shorts as long as they “remain 10 centimetres above the kneecap”.

In 2021, there were also dress code protests by female performers at the European Artistic Gymnastics Championships in Switzerland. German gymnasts donned full-body suits, in response to the ongoing objectification and sexualisation of women in sport.

Read more:
Survival of the fittest: the changing shapes and sizes of Olympic athletes

Global sexual abuse of young gymnasts

It was no coincidence that the German gymnasts’ decision to cover up followed one of the biggest sexual abuse scandals in sports history – in the United States, 156 women gave testimonies at the 2018 sentence hearing for the former USA Gymnastics team doctor, Larry Nassar, who was jailed for up to 175 years. A Netflix documentary called “Athlete A” proceeded in June 2020, detailing sexual abuse within USA Gymnastics and the failure of the sport to address this.

Other gymnasts were prompted to speak out across the world.

In the United Kingdom, multiple elite British gymnasts exposed the emotional and physical trauma they endured at the hands of their coaches. More than 400 submissions by traumatised UK gymnasts were subsequently documented in the 2022 Whyte Review, exposing widespread physical, emotional and sexual abuse by coaches.

In New Zealand, former Blenheim Gymnastics Club coach Gregory Pask pleaded guilty in March 2024 to more than 60 sexual offence charges against girls under his tutelage.

Read more:
A ‘toxic’ and dehumanising culture: how Australian gymnastics needs to reform in wake of damning report

Why do dress codes matter?

This is not just about dress codes, it’s about choice – when female athletes are given uniform choices, they are empowered and given a voice.

Recent research involving more than 3,000 girls across eight countries confirmed sports uniforms are an important influence on girls’ engagement in physical activity. If girls experience flexible uniform policies, it is possible to keep them active for longer.

Since many women are not physically active enough, this is imperative for girls’ future health and wellbeing.

When young girls see women being objectified by the media due to what they wear in sport, this often tells them women are valued for their bodies, rather than their athletic abilities.

Low self-esteem and appearance anxiety can be seeded early on in a girl’s life, especially when puberty kicks in and body satisfaction is already in decline. This can lead to teenage girls developing a body image or eating disorder, and dropping out of physical activity altogether.

Baby steps

None of this is a female issue – it’s a systemic issue.

Sex offenders in women’s gymnastics coaching circles, and archaic inappropriate dress codes for female athletes, confirm the patriarchy is alive and well in the institution of sport.

It’s all connected – girls and women participate in a male-dominated system that has pervasive and enduring gender inequities.

A culture of fear and silence has persisted for too long in women’s sport. But when predators are punished, and uniform policies are reformed, this indicates changes are afoot.

The ripple effect may become a tidal wave if female athletes are listened to, and systemic change will surely follow.

Yes, there’s a long and winding road ahead, but every little knicker and bra strap policy amendment paves the way for improved gender equity in the old boys’ club.

Rachael Jefferson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. NZ gymnasts can now wear shorts over their leotards – why is this a big deal for female athletes? – https://theconversation.com/nz-gymnasts-can-now-wear-shorts-over-their-leotards-why-is-this-a-big-deal-for-female-athletes-227159

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Liz Allen, Demographer, POLIS Centre for Social Policy Research, Australian National University

People form the foundation of society, determining all manner of things from housing needs to economic wellbeing. And population characteristics can tell us much about how the inhabitants of a place have changed over time and where the population might be headed in the future.

Australia’s population now numbers around 27 million. On its own, however, this figure says little about our demography. Unpacking Australia’s population composition reveals the challenges and opportunities that lay ahead.

Living longer and with fewer children

Australians can expect to live into their eighties. Our increased longevity, alongside below-replacement fertility, means Australia’s population is structurally ageing. The challenges of an ageing population include greater aged care needs, amid a relative shrinking workforce.

In other words, populations like Australia need to work out how to fund more with fewer financial resources or risk declining living standards.

The chart below is a unique way to visualise population projections. It shows the size of Australia’s population for males and females, broken down by age. Over time, some ages balloon out, like the 50–80 year olds. Some ages barely move, like the 0–10 year olds. Hover your mouse over each line to see the full population pyramid and additional information.

With Australia on track to become a nation of predominantly middle-aged people (and older) by 2065, a healthy and robust workforce is crucial to economic sustainability.

The shape of population age distribution matters more than ever, especially with evidence indicating children in Australia will be outnumbered by people aged 65 and over in the coming ten years.

Increasing women’s participation in paid work has been one response to Australia’s ageing workforce. But focusing on women’s economic participation fails to consider the gender bias in unpaid caring, placing enormous pressure on women to do it all.

And growing intergenerational inequality threatens the future prospects of young people. Job insecurity, housing affordability, gender inequality and climate change are all placing enormous strain on younger people, contributing to their deep uncertainty about the future. Young people just aren’t getting a go.

High short-term growth, potential for population decline

Australia’s population has grown at a historically high rate since the reopening of international borders during COVID-19. Most of Australia’s population growth is from overseas migration, as has been the case since 2005 (except during COVID border closures).

While net overseas migration has increased in the short term, this is projected to decline in the coming years. However, immigration will still contribute the most to population increase.

Natural population increase – the number of births versus deaths – also contributes to Australia’s rising population. However, this rate is also on the decline. By 2054, official projections anticipate deaths will outnumber births, meaning in the absence of overseas immigration the nation’s population would start declining.

Migration helps offset the adverse consequences of an ageing population. Without immigration, Australia’s population would start shrinking decades earlier than expected. The national budget would be adversely impacted and the societal contributions that migrants make would be lost.

More diverse than ever

Half the world has below-replacement fertility, and the average number of births per woman is set to decline even further. Australia is competing with the likes of Germany, Canada, the United States, New Zealand and the United Kingdom to attract suitable people to migrate.

Australia can no longer rely on migration from countries like the UK to sustain its workforce. From a Blak country to a European colonial settlement, Australia now relies heavily on people migrating from India and China.

Not all populations in Australia have the same demography. First Nations people, for example, have a much younger age profile and higher growth rate than the non-Indigenous people. They also have a lower life expectancy and higher infant mortality, reflecting the enduring discrimination First Nations people face in Australian society.

City living

Australia’s population is also highly urbanised, with a high concentration of people living along the southeastern coastline from southeast Queensland to Victoria.

Cities in Australia continue to reign supreme, growing faster than regional areas overall. Vital infrastructure – transportation, housing, education, health care and employment – are a major draw card. Despite numerous attempts throughout Australia’s history, population decentralisation is unlikely.

Cities offer the largest opportunities for education and employment, attracting the bulk of international movers. Sydney and Melbourne draw in more than half the nation’s overseas migration intake.

By 2036, Melbourne is projected to be Australia’s largest capital city, not surprising give Sydney has a considerable surplus of people moving to live in other places in Australia. And, no, Melbourne hasn’t already overtaken Sydney – this is just some fancy accounting using unconventional definitions.

Households are changing, too. More people are living alone, and the number of people in each household on average is declining. A close examination of Australia’s demography helps contextualise the country’s housing mismatch.

Australia’s demography shows a country with great opportunity, so long as the challenges are addressed. Population data enables policymakers to take an evidence-based approach to help shape our country’s future.

Liz Allen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Eight charts on how Australia’s population is growing – and changing – https://theconversation.com/eight-charts-on-how-australias-population-is-growing-and-changing-227153

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Versitano, Academic, Master of Art Therapy Program, Western Sydney University

Creating art for healing purposes dates back tens of thousands of years, to the practices of First Nations people around the world. Art therapy uses creative processes, primarily visual art such as painting, drawing or sculpture, with a view to improving physical health and emotional wellbeing.

When people face significant physical or mental ill-health, it can be challenging to put their experiences into words. Art therapists support people to explore and process overwhelming thoughts, feelings and experiences through a reflective art-making process. This is distinct from art classes, which often focus on technical aspects of the artwork, or the aesthetics of the final product.

Art therapy can be used to support treatment for a wide range of physical and mental health conditions. It has been linked to benefits including improved self-awareness, social connection and emotional regulation, while lowering levels of distress, anxiety and even pain scores.

In a study published this week in the Journal of Mental Health, we found art therapy was associated with positive outcomes for children and adolescents in a hospital-based mental health unit.

An option for those who can’t find the words

While a person’s engagement in talk therapies may sometimes be affected by the nature of their illness, verbal reflection is optional in art therapy.

Where possible, after finishing an artwork, a person can explore the meaning of their work with the art therapist, translating unspoken symbolic material into verbal reflection.

However, as the talking component is less central to the therapeutic process, art therapy is an accessible option for people who may not be able to find the words to describe their experiences.

Read more:
Creative arts therapies can help people with dementia socialise and express their grief

Art therapy has supported improved mental health outcomes for people who have experienced trauma, people with eating disorders, schizophrenia and dementia, as well as children with autism.

Art therapy has also been linked to improved outcomes for people with a range of physical health conditions. These include lower levels of anxiety, depression and fatigue among people with cancer, enhanced psychological stability for patients with heart disease, and improved social connection among people who have experienced a traumatic brain injury.

Art therapy has been associated with improved mood and anxiety levels for patients in hospital, and lower pain, tiredness and depression among palliative care patients.

Our research

Mental ill-health, including among children and young people, presents a major challenge for our society. While most care takes place in the community, a small proportion of young people require care in hospital to ensure their safety.

In this environment, practices that place even greater restriction, such as seclusion or physical restraint, may be used briefly as a last resort to ensure immediate physical safety. However, these “restrictive practices” are associated with negative effects such as post-traumatic stress for patients and health professionals.

Worryingly, staff report a lack of alternatives to keep patients safe. However, the elimination of restrictive practices is a major aim of mental health services in Australia and internationally.

Read more:
‘An arts engagement that’s changed their life’: the magic of arts and health

Our research looked at more than six years of data from a child and adolescent mental health hospital ward in Australia. We sought to determine whether there was a reduction in restrictive practices during the periods when art therapy was offered on the unit, compared to times when it was absent.

We found a clear association between the provision of art therapy and reduced frequency of seclusion, physical restraint and injection of sedatives on the unit.

We don’t know the precise reason for this. However, art therapy may have lessened levels of severe distress among patients, thereby reducing the risk they would harm themselves or others, and the likelihood of staff using restrictive practices to prevent this.

That said, hospital admission involves multiple therapeutic interventions including talk-based therapies and medications. Confirming the effect of a therapeutic intervention requires controlled clinical trials where people are randomly assigned one treatment or another.

Although ours was an observational study, randomised controlled trials support the benefits of art therapy in youth mental health services. For instance, a 2011 hospital-based study showed reduced symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder among adolescents randomised to trauma-focussed art therapy compared to a “control” arts and crafts group.

What do young people think?

In previous research we found art therapy was considered by adolescents in hospital-based mental health care to be the most helpful group therapy intervention compared to other talk-based therapy groups and creative activities.

In research not yet published, we’re speaking with young people to better understand their experiences of art therapy, and why it might reduce distress. One young person accessing art therapy in an acute mental health service shared:

[Art therapy] is a way of sort of letting out your emotions in a way that doesn’t involve being judged […] It let me release a lot of stuff that was bottling up and stuff that I couldn’t explain through words.

A promising area

The burgeoning research showing the benefits of art therapy for both physical and especially mental health highlights the value of creative and innovative approaches to treatment in health care.

There are opportunities to expand art therapy services in a range of health-care settings. Doing so would enable greater access to art therapy for people with a variety of physical and mental health conditions.

Sarah Versitano is a PhD Candidate at Western Sydney University and works for the Sydney Children’s Hospitals Network, which is part of NSW Health. She has received funding from the Health Education and Training Institute (HETI) for the Mental Health Research Award. She is a Registered Art Therapist with the Australia, New Zealand and Asian Creative Arts Therapies Association (ANZACATA) and Registered Clinical Counsellor with the Psychotherapists and Counsellors Federation of Australia (PACFA). She has delivered art therapy and psychotherapy in public and private hospital settings.

Iain Perkes works for the University of New South Wales and the Sydney Children’s Hospitals Network which is part of NSW Health. He has previously worked for numerous health services throughout NSW Health. He has received funding or awards from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), the International Association of Child and Adolescent and Allied Professions, (IACAPAP), the World Psychiatric Association (WPA), the Tourette’s Association of America (TAA), Tourette Syndrome Association (TSA), the NSW Institute of Psychiatry, The University of Sydney, and the Sydney Partnership for Health, Education, Research and Enterprise (SPHERE). He is affiliated with Neuroscience Research Australia (NeuRA) and the Health Education and Training Institute (HETI, NSW Health).

– ref. Lost for words? Research shows art therapy brings benefits for mental health – https://theconversation.com/lost-for-words-research-shows-art-therapy-brings-benefits-for-mental-health-221309

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milton Speer, Visiting Fellow, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney

Flash droughts strike suddenly and intensify rapidly. Often the affected areas are in drought after just weeks or a couple of months of well-below-average rainfall. They happen worldwide and are becoming more common, including in Australia, due to global warming.

Flash droughts can occur anywhere and at any time of the year. Last year, a flash drought hit the Upper Hunter region of New South Wales, roughly 300 kilometres north-west of Sydney.

These sudden droughts can have devastating economic, social and environmental impacts. The damage is particularly severe for agricultural regions heavily dependent on reliable rain in river catchments. One such region is the Upper Hunter Valley, the subject of our new research.

We identified two climate drivers – the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole) – that became influential during this drought. In addition, the waning influence of a third climate driver, the Southern Annular Mode), would typically bring rain to the east coast. However, this rain did not reach the Upper Hunter.

Flash droughts are set to get more common as the world heats up. This year, a flash drought developed over western and central Victoria over just two months. While heavy rain this month in Melbourne ended the drought there, it continues in the west.

What makes a flash drought different?

Flash droughts differ from more slowly developing droughts. The latter result from extended drops in rainfall, such as the drought affecting parts of southwest Western Australia due to the much shortened winter wet season last year.

Flash droughts develop when sudden large drops in rainfall coincide with above-average temperatures. They mostly occur in summer and autumn, as was the case for Asia and Europe in 2022. That year saw flash droughts appear across the northern hemisphere, such as the megadrought affecting China’s Yangtze river basin and Spain.

Read more:
Fire regimes around Australia shifted abruptly 20 years ago – and falling humidity is why

The flash drought devastating the Upper Hunter from May to October 2023 developed despite the region being drought-free just one month earlier. At that stage, almost nowhere in NSW showed any sign of an impending drought.

The flash drought greatly affected agricultural production in the Upper Hunter region, due to the region’s reliance on water from rivers. Low rainfall in river catchments means less water for crops and pasture. It also dries up drinking water supplies.

Flash droughts are characterised by abrupt periods of low rainfall leading to rapid drought onset, particularly when accompanied by above-average temperatures. Higher temperatures increase both the evaporation of water from the soil and transpiration from plants (evapotranspiration). This causes soil moisture to drop rapidly.

Read more:
Farmers face a soaring risk of flash droughts in every major food-growing region in coming decades, new research shows

The Upper Hunter drought is part of a trend

Flash droughts will be more common in the future. That’s because higher temperatures will more often coincide with dry conditions, as relative humidity falls across many parts of Australia and globally.

Climate change is linked to shorter, heavier bursts of rain followed by longer periods of little rainfall.

In south-east and south-west Australia, flash droughts can also occur in winter.

In May 2023 rainfall over south-east Australia dropped abruptly. The much lower rainfall continued until November in the Upper Hunter. Over this same period, mean maximum temperatures in the region were the highest on record, increasing the loss of moisture through evapotranspiration. The result was a flash drought. While flash droughts occurred in other parts of south-east Australia, we focused on the Upper Hunter as it remained in drought the longest.

Read more:
Faster disaster: climate change fuels ‘flash droughts’, intense downpours and storms

What were the climate drivers of this drought?

We used machine-learning techniques to identify the key climate drivers of the drought.

We found the dominant driver of the flash drought was global warming, modulated by the phases of the three major climate drivers in our region, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole and the Southern Annular Mode.

From 2020 to 2022, the first two drivers became favourable for rain in the Upper Hunter in late winter through spring, before changing phase to one supporting drought over south-east Australia. Meanwhile, the Southern Annular Mode remained mostly positive, meaning rain-bearing westerly winds and weather fronts had moved to middle and higher latitudes of the southern hemisphere, away from Australia’s south-east coast.

Combined, the impact of global warming with the three climate drivers made rainfall much more variable. The net result was an atmospheric environment highly conducive to a flash drought appearing anywhere in south-east Australia.

Victoria, too, fits the global warming pattern

As for the flash drought that developed in early 2024 over western and central Victoria, including Melbourne, it continues in parts of western Victoria. The flash drought followed very high January rainfall (top 5% of records) dropping rapidly to very low rainfall (bottom 5%) in February and March.

It was the driest February-March period on record for Melbourne and south-west Victoria.

At the beginning of April, a storm front brought heavy rainfall over an 18-hour period to central Victoria, including Melbourne.

The rains ended the flash drought in these areas, but it continues in parts of western Victoria, which missed out on the rain.

The pattern of the 2024 flash drought in Victoria typifies the increasing trend under global warming of long dry periods, interspersed by short, heavy rainfall events.

Read more:
New report shows alarming changes in the entire global water cycle

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Flash droughts are becoming more common in Australia. What’s causing them? – https://theconversation.com/flash-droughts-are-becoming-more-common-in-australia-whats-causing-them-227052

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexandru Nichifor, Associate Professor, Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Melbourne, The University of Melbourne

Loyalty programs enable firms to offer significantly lower prices to some of their customers. You’d think this would encourage strong competition.

But that isn’t always what actually happens. New research shows that paradoxically, by changing the way companies target customers, loyalty programs can sometimes reduce price competition. The research also points to solutions.

A win-win proposition?

Joining a loyalty program is supposed to be a win-win. You – the customer – get to enjoy perks and discounts, while the company gains useful commercial insights and builds brand allegiance.

Read more:
What do TikTok, Bunnings, eBay and Netflix have in common? They’re all hyper-collectors

For example, a hotel chain loyalty program might reward travellers for frequent stays, with points redeemable for future bookings, upgrades or other benefits. The hotel chain, in turn, records and analyses how you spend money and encourages you to stay with them again.

Such programs are commonplace across many industries – appearing everywhere from travel and accommodation to supermarket or petrol retailing. But they are increasingly coming under scrutiny.

In 2019, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) cautioned consumers about the sheer volume of personal data collected when participating in a loyalty program, and what companies can do with it.

Hidden costs – such as having to pay a redemption fee on rewards or losing benefits when points expire – are another way these schemes can harm consumers.

But a larger question – how loyalty programs impact consumers overall – remains difficult to settle, because their effect on competitiveness is unclear. As the ACCC’s final report notes, on the one hand:

Loyalty schemes can have pro-competitive effects and intensify competition between rivals leading to competing loyalty discounts and lower prices for consumers.

But on the other hand:

Loyalty schemes can also reduce the flexibility of consumers’ buying patterns and responsiveness to competing offers, which may reduce competition.

How a two-speed price system can hurt everyone

A new economic theory research working paper, coauthored by one of us (Kominers), suggests that on competitive grounds alone, loyalty programs can sometimes harm all consumers – both ordinary shoppers and the program’s own members.

It’s easy to see how the ordinary shopper can be worse off. Since a firm’s loyalty program enables it to offer discounted prices to its members, the firm can raise the base prices it offers to everyone else. Those not participating in the program pay more than they otherwise would have, and the firm can respond by saying “join our program!” instead of having to lower its price.

But sometimes, even the program’s own members can end up worse off.

When a given customer’s loyalty status is not visible to a firm’s competitors – as is the case in many loyalty programs today – it’s hard for those competitors to identify them and entice them to switch.

The main way to compete for those customers becomes to lower the base price for everyone, but this means missing out on the high base margins achieved through the existence of your own loyalty program – remember, having a loyalty program means you can charge non-members more.

It’s often more profitable for firms to just maintain high base prices. This, in turn, reduces overall price competition for loyal customers, so firms can raise prices for them, too.

What’s the solution?

Despite these effects on competition, loyalty programs still offer benefits for consumers and an opportunity for brands to form closer relationships with them.

So, how do we preserve these benefits while enabling price competition? The research suggests an answer: making a customer’s loyalty status verifiable, transparent and portable across firms. This would make it possible for firms to tailor offers for their competitors’ loyal customers.

Read more:
You can’t trust the price-comparison market, as iSelect’s $8.5 million fine shows

This is already happening in the market for retail electricity. While there aren’t loyalty programs there per se, a consumer’s energy consumption profile, which could be used by a competitor to calibrate a personalised offer, is known only to their current electricity supplier.

To address this, in 2015, the Victorian government launched a program encouraging households to compare energy offers. This process involved first revealing a customer’s energy consumption profile to the market, and then asking retailers to compete via personalised offers.

By opening information that might have otherwise been hidden to the broader market, this approach enabled firms to compete for each other’s top customers, in a way that could be emulated for loyalty programs.

Such systems in the private sector could build upon “status match” policies at airlines. These allow direct transfer of loyalty status, but currently rely on a lengthy, individual-level verification process.

For example, a design paradigm known as “Web3” – where customer transactions and loyalty statuses are recorded on public, shared blockchain ledgers – offers a way to make loyalty transparent across the market.

This would enable an enhanced, decentralised version of status match: a firm could use blockchain records to verifiably identify who its competitors’ loyal customers are, and directly incentivise them to switch.

Both startups and established firms have experimented with building such systems.

What next?

New academic research helps us model and better understand when loyalty programs could be weakening supply side competition and undermining consumer welfare.

A neat universal solution may prove elusive. But targeted government or industry interventions – centred on increasing the transparency of a customer’s loyalty status and letting them move it between firms – could help level the playing field between firms and consumers.

Nichifor is a deputy director of the Centre for Market Design (CMD), a research hub with expertise in microeconomics, hosted by the Department of Economics at the University of Melbourne. Part of this work was conducted during the Simons Laufer Mathematical Sciences Institute Fall 2023 program on the Mathematics and Computer Science of Market and Mechanism Design, which was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. DMS-1928930 and by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation under grant G-2021-16778.

Kominers is a Research Partner at a16z crypto and also advises companies on marketplace and incentive design, including Quora, Lunchclub, and OneChronos, as well as crypto projects such as AppliedPrimate, FINE Digital, koodos, 1337 Skulls, and Thingdoms. He also holds digital assets, including both fungible and non-fungible tokens, and serves as an expert on marketplace design and Web3-related matters. (For further information, please see Kominers’s website, www.scottkom.com. For general a16z disclosures, see https://a16z.com/disclosures/.) Kominers’s research has been supported by the National Science Foundation, the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, and the Ng Fund and the Mathematics in Economics Research Fund of the Harvard Center of Mathematical Sciences and Applications. Part of this work was conducted during the Simons Laufer Mathematical Sciences Institute Fall 2023 program on the Mathematics and Computer Science of Market and Mechanism Design, which was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. DMS-1928930 and by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation under grant G-2021-16778.

– ref. Loyalty programs may limit competition, and they could be pushing prices up for everyone – https://theconversation.com/loyalty-programs-may-limit-competition-and-they-could-be-pushing-prices-up-for-everyone-220669

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joy McEntee, Adjunct Senior Lecturer, University of Adelaide

Fresh from All of Us Strangers(2023), Andrew Scott plays the title role in Netflix’s new series Ripley, a miniseries based on Patricia Highsmith’s 1955 novel The Talented Mr. Ripley. News publisher Out claimed Scott’s Ripley for gayness. However, Scott’s own aspirations are more ambiguous, saying “he’s a queer character, in the sense that he’s very ‘other’.”

In the novel, Tom Ripley is sent to Europe by Dickie Greenleaf’s father to persuade him to come home to America. However, once he arrives, Tom becomes obsessed with Dickie and his lifestyle. When Dickie rejects him, he kills him and steals his identity. And this is only the first of his murders.

Highsmith wrote Ripley as having an elusive sexuality. As the character Marge says in the book, “He may not be queer. He’s just a nothing, which is worse. He isn’t normal enough to have any kind of sex life.”

Each era since Highsmith’s novel has had its own screen version of Ripley, responding to its own sexual and moral times. Scott’s Ripley is different yet again: an enigma who is both compelling and frightening – connected to sexuality, but resistant to explanations, labels or pigeonholes.

Tom Ripley through the ages

Previous adaptors have “solved” the problem of Ripley’s ambiguous sexuality and amorality by pigeonholing him, and making sure he got caught — both of which Highsmith pointedly avoided.

In 1960, director René Clément made Ripley straight in Plein Soleil. In the final scene, the police close in to arrest him. In 1999, Anthony Minghella made him gay in The Talented Mr. Ripley. Minghella asserted that Ripley’s “pathology is not explained by his sexuality”, yet he punishes Ripley through his gayness when he has him kill his lover.

Refreshingly, Claude Chabrol’s Les Biches, thought to be loosely based on The Talented Mr. Ripley, neither pigeonholes nor punishes its lesbian/bisexual protagonist. The film was made against the countercultural foment of 1968. Its protagonist is so anonymous she is known only as “Why” and is not caught.

Scott’s Ripley is equally sensitive to its times. Scott said he and director Steven Zaillian were “very concerned with labelling in 2024. […] Ripley wouldn’t be comfortable in a gay bar; […] he wouldn’t be comfortable in a straight bar.”

Embracing gayness and fluidity

Gayness as a whole is not subtext in Zaillian’s production. Freddie Miles (Eliot Sumner) is explicitly gay. Dickie Greenleaf (Johnny Flynn) asserts “I’m not queer” in the defensive manner of “someone who absolutely is”, as observed by Digital Spy’s David Opie. Ripley plants a kiss on Freddie’s corpse while manhandling it. Inspector Ravini (Maurizio Lombardi) suspects Dickie and Miles were “involved”. And, finally, Ripley projects his own gay crush back onto Dickie.

At the same time, the series shows a sincere commitment to fluidity. Non-binary Sumner plays Freddie Miles, their slight embodiment contrasting with Philip Seymour Hoffman’s fleshy, aggressive, bitchy, camp machismo in Minghella’s adaptation.

The choice to embrace fluidity is also strategic as it keeps Zaillian open to sequels that could stick to Highsmith’s original plots. In subsequent Ripliad novels, Tom marries a woman. Although there are ongoing hints of bisexuality, Highsmith said, “I don’t think Ripley is gay. […] I’m not saying he’s very strong in the sex department. But he makes it in bed with his wife.”

If this is confusing, it is because Highsmith herself was a contradictory figure. She was a lesbian, but exhibited internalised homophobia. She was a woman, but wrote a collection of stories entitled Little Tales of Misogyny.

Her Ripley oscillates between the identities Dickie and Tom in The Talented Mr. Ripley, and between points of sexual identification in the wider Ripliad in an uneasy way that destabilises fixed identities. Ripley is by turns gay and straight, queer and nothing.

Scott plays an incalculable Ripley

So, does Scott do well at playing “nothing”? On one hand, the actor has said, “sometimes the reason we feel unnerved by certain people is because we don’t know their backstory […] What’s wonderful about Ripley is we have no idea.” But he has also said “it’s actually the blankness that’s sometimes hard to engage with”.

Playing a sexual nullity is a departure for Scott. He was the outrageously camp Lord Merlin in The Pursuit of Love (2017), the hot priest in Fleabag (2019), and the heartbreaking gay man in All of Us Strangers. He has also played “queer-coded” villains, such as Moriarty in BBC’s Sherlock (2010–17), and Max Denbigh (codenamed C) in Spectre (2015).

To the character of Ripley he brings an ambiguous charisma and a Machiavellian sapiosexuality – sexiness that comes from being very, very intelligent.

Scott’s one definite statement about Ripley is that “his sexuality or sensuality comes out of his relationship with things — art, clothes, props, music.” Certainly, his Ripley has a love/hate relationship with “things”. He desires Dickie’s pen, watch, ring and Picasso.

At the same time, inanimate objects prove to be obstacles as Ripley laboriously cleans up after his impulsive murders. There’s a boat he can’t burn or scupper, an elevator that seizes up when he is trying to carry a body downstairs. The ring almost proves his undoing. And as Slate culture columnist Laura Miller writes, “what is a corpse if not an inconvenient person transformed into an even more inconvenient thing?”

In his war with things, Scott’s Ripley reveals he is not talented. He makes mistakes. He is nearly caught several times. His botched coverups and his impatient sighs as he confronts yet another error, another chore, make the series “mordantly funny”.

These near-misses generate suspense and anxiety for Ripley, but he is too opaque, alien and other for empathy. Robert Elswit’s gorgeous black-and-white cinematography abets this, making the most of Scott’s obsidian eyes.

Scott’s performance raises a question that has divided critics: how blank is too blank?

Depending on whom you ask, his Ripley is either “mesmerizing” or “charmless”. Is Scott too successful at playing the incalculable other? Either way, this debate will certainly drive people to Ripley to see what all the fuss is about.

Read more:
All of Us Strangers buys into tropes of tragic queer lives – but there is hope there, too

Joy McEntee does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Critics can’t decide if Andrew Scott’s Ripley is mesmerising or charmless – exactly as Patricia Highsmith wrote him – https://theconversation.com/critics-cant-decide-if-andrew-scotts-ripley-is-mesmerising-or-charmless-exactly-as-patricia-highsmith-wrote-him-227340

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Maurice Huguenin, Postdoctoral research associate in Physical Oceanography, UNSW Sydney

As snow falls on Antarctica, layers build up and turn to ice. Over time, this compressed snow has become a continent-sized glacier, or ice sheet. It’s enormous – almost double the size of Australia and far larger than the continental United States.

As the weight of ice builds up, the ice sheet begins to move towards the oceans. When it reaches the sea, the ice floats. These floating extensions are known as ice shelves. The largest is over 800 kilometres wide.

When the ocean water has a temperature close to 0°C, these ice shelves can persist for a long time. But when temperatures rise, even a little, the ice melts from below. Antarctic ice shelves are now losing an alarming 150 billion tons of ice per year, adding more water to the ocean and accelerating global sea level rise by 0.6 mm per year. Ice shelves in West Antarctica are particularly prone to melting from the ocean, as many are close to water masses above 0°C.

While the melting trend is clear and concerning, the amount can vary substantially from year-to-year due to the impact of both natural climate fluctuations and human-made climate change. To figure out what is going on and to prepare for the future, we need to tease apart the different drivers – especially El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the world’s largest year-to-year natural climate driver.

Our new research explores how heat brought by El Niño can warm the ocean around West Antarctica and increase melting of the ice shelves from below.

How can El Niño-Southern Oscillation affect Antarctica?

Australians are very familiar with the two phases of this climate driver, El Niño and La Niña, as they tend to bring us hotter, dryer weather and cooler, wetter weather, respectively. But the influence of this cycle is much larger, affecting weather and climate all around the Pacific.

Can it reach through Antarctica’s cold, fast currents of air and water? Yes.

Giant convective thunderstorms in the Pacific’s equatorial regions move east during El Niño and intensify in the West during La Niña. As these storm systems change, they excite ripples in the atmosphere that are able to travel large distances, just as waves can cross oceans. Within two months, these atmospheric waves reach the Antarctic continent, where their energy can affect the coastal atmosphere and ocean circulation. During El Niño, the energy from these waves weakens the easterly winds off West Antarctica (and vice versa for La Niña).

Using satellite data, researchers recently found that West Antarctic ice shelves actually gain height but lose mass during El Niño. That’s because more low-density snow falls at the top of the ice shelves, while at the same time more warm water flows under the ice shelves where it melts compressed high-density ice from underneath.

What we don’t yet know is how this warmer water (above zero) comes up from below. Similarly, we don’t know what happens during La Niña.

Answering these questions with the few observations we have from Antarctica is challenging because this climate driver doesn’t happen in isolation. Storms, tides, large eddy currents and other climate drivers such as the Southern Annual Mode can change the temperatures of the water under ice shelves too, and they can occur at the same time as El Niño.

Read more:
Ice shelves hold back Antarctica’s glaciers from adding to sea levels – but they’re crumbling

Finding a needle in the ice stack

So how did we do it? Modelling.

We take a high-resolution global ocean circulation model and added El Niño and La Niña events to the baseline simulation. By doing so, we can examine what these anomalies do to the currents and temperatures around Antarctica.

The energy brought by El Niño’s atmospheric waves to West Antarctica weakens the prevailing easterly winds along the coasts.

Normally, most of the warm water reservoir is located off the continental shelf rather than on the continental shelf. As the winds weaken, more of this warmer water – known as Circumpolar Deep Water – is able to flow onto the continental shelf and near the base of the floating ice shelves.

We call this water mass “warm”, but that’s relative – it’s only 1–2°C above freezing, and the heat only warms the water on the continental shelf by about 0.5°C. But that’s enough to begin melting ice shelves, which are at or below freezing point.

As you’d expect, the longer the warm water stays on the shelf and the hotter it is, the more melting occurs.

During La Niña, the opposite occurs and the ice rebounds. Winds along the coast strengthen, pushing more cold surface water onto the continental shelf and preventing warm water from flowing under the ice shelves.

What does this mean for the near future?

Researchers have found El Niño and La Niña have already become more frequent and more extreme.

If this trend continues, as climate projections suggest, we can expect warming around West Antarctica to get even stronger during El Niño events, accelerating ice shelf melting and speeding up sea level rise.

More frequent and stronger El Niño events could also push us closer to a tipping point in the West Antarctic ice sheet, after which accelerated melting and mass loss could become self-perpetuating. That means the ice wouldn’t melt and reform but begin to steadily melt.

More bad news? Unfortunately, yes. The only way to stop the worst from happening is to get to net zero carbon emissions as quickly as humanly possible.

Read more:
We can still prevent the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet – if we act fast to keep future warming in check

Maurice Huguenin receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Matthew England receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Paul Spence does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Heat from El Niño can warm oceans off West Antarctica – and melt floating ice shelves from below – https://theconversation.com/heat-from-el-nino-can-warm-oceans-off-west-antarctica-and-melt-floating-ice-shelves-from-below-226233

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Craig Stevens, Professor in Ocean Physics, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

At the end of the southern summer, Antarctica’s sea ice hit its annual minimum. By at least one measure, which tracks the area of ocean that contains at least 15% of sea ice, it was a little above the record low of 2023.

At the time, I was aboard the Italian icebreaker Laura Bassi, ironically surrounded by sea ice about 10km off Cape Hallett and unable to make our way to one of the expedition’s sampling sites.

Even just a decade ago, sea ice reliably rebuilt itself each winter. But something has changed in how the Southern Ocean works and the area covered by sea ice has decreased dramatically.

Our aim was to track the changes happening in the ocean around Antarctica and to make targeted measurements of some of the processes we think are responsible for this loss of sea ice. Most likely, this is a consequence of warming oceans and so we focused on identifying the pathways warmer seawater could find to drive more melting.

The southernmost shelf sea

The annual freeze-thaw cycle of Antarctic sea ice is one of the defining properties of our planet.

It affects the reflectivity of a vast area of the globe, oxygenates the deep ocean, provides habitat across the Southern Ocean food web and plays a role in the resilience of ice shelves.

Read more:
Antarctica’s heart of ice has skipped a beat. Time to take our medicine

The voyage was led by a team of scientists who coordinate Italy’s longstanding research in the Southern Ocean.

For decades, they have been maintaining instruments in the Ross Sea region and the data they have been collecting are now proving crucial as we seek to understand the implications of sea-ice changes in terms of physics and biogeochemistry.

The expedition sailed a two-month counter-clockwise loop of the continental shelf in the Ross Sea. Continental shelves are shallower and biologically very productive regions that surround all of Earth’s continents.

Continental shelf seas around Antarctica are special because of the presence of sea ice – but this varies in space and time.

The US National Snow and Ice Data Center has developed a visualisation tool to compare sea-ice conditions during different times.

It shows that by the end of summer, the Ross Sea region holds only a few patches of sea ice. And this year, the patches were even fewer than in the past.

The region is the southernmost open water on the planet and acts as a gateway to seawater flowing in and out under the largest (by area) ice shelf on the planet – the Ross Ice Shelf.

The sea ice we encountered came in a variety of thicknesses and snow cover. We could see that in some places, sea ice was present in densities less than a satellite could recognise, but possibly enough to have an influence on how the upper ocean exchanges heat with the atmosphere above.

Read more:
Antarctica is missing a chunk of sea ice bigger than Greenland – what’s going on?

The state of sea ice

This reinforced our understanding of the importance of the spatial variability of sea ice. Satellites show that most of the sea-ice coverage, at its minimum, was found in a big patch in East Antarctica, due south of Hobart, and the ice-choked Weddell Sea.

The Weddell Sea and its Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf are the Ross Sea’s opposite. At the late-summer sea-ice minimum, the Ross Sea is largely free of ice, while the Weddell Sea stays filled with ice.

This was the pack-ice nightmare that trapped Shackleton’s Endurance over a century ago.

At a personal level, the sights during our expedition were a privilege. They took me beyond anything imagined from data and models. Giant icebergs became common place. Penguins, seals, skua and whales all passed by the ship at various times.

In the same way we send people into space, there are substantial benefits to having scientists on location developing their perspectives on the science. However, it is clear that Antarctic ocean data collection systems need to expand when and where they collect information.

Read more:
We landed a camera on Venus before seeing parts of our own oceans – it’s time to ramp up observations closer to home

The future is robotic

One feature of the voyage was the use of robots. We deployed 11 relatively simple Argo floats that will drift around the region for years, surfacing to send back data on temperature, salinity and in some cases oxygen.

We also sent three robotic ocean gliders on their data-collecting missions independent of the ship. This meant we could capture flow data in the long north-south troughs that are a feature of the region, while the ship was elsewhere.

We retrieved these robot gliders after several weeks, bringing back unique maps of changing ocean temperature and salinity. The data provide evidence of warmer water lying just beneath the edge of the continental shelf, highlighting the fragility of the system.

There is a growing sense that the Ross Sea sector will become more important in the coming decade. With substantial changes upstream in the Amundsen Sea, where glaciers are retreating at an accelerating rate, and the possibility for warmer water finding its way onto the continental shelf, there is the potential that the largest ice shelf on the planet might start to change.

Craig Stevens receives funding from the New Zealand Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE), Antarctica New Zealand Antarctic Science Platform (ASP-ANTA1801), MBIE Strategic Science Investment Fund and the New Zealand Royal Society Te Apārangi Marsden Fund. He is on the Council of the New Zealand Association of Scientists. The observations and collaboration described here were made possible through long-term funding for the work from both the Italian PNRA (Programma Nazionale di Ricerche in Antartide) and the NZ Antarctic Science Platform.

– ref. Antarctica’s sea ice hit another low this year – understanding how ocean warming is driving the loss is key – https://theconversation.com/antarcticas-sea-ice-hit-another-low-this-year-understanding-how-ocean-warming-is-driving-the-loss-is-key-225781

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Georgia Ward-Fear, Post doctoral fellow and Conservation Ecologist , Macquarie University

Australia can claim more than its fair share of environmental blunders, but the introduction of cane toads in 1935 surely ranks as one of the worst.

The toads were imported from Hawaii and released in Queensland, purportedly to manage pest beetles in sugar cane crops. The toads failed to control the pests and instead spread westwards at an ever-increasing pace. They are expected to reach Broome on Western Australia’s coast within a few years.

Along the way, cane toads have created havoc. Any predator that tries to eat an adult cane toad is likely to die a quick and painful death.
In particular, monitor lizards – once abundant across the Australian tropics – have virtually been wiped out.

Cane toads have so far proven unstoppable. But our research suggests even if we can’t eradicate the toads, we may still be able to reduce the damage they cause. By exposing native animals to less toxic baby cane toads, we can teach them not to eat the deadly adults.

‘Teacher toads’

Many threats imperilling ecosystems worldwide are virtually impossible to eradicate. In some cases, the only way to reduce the impacts of such invaders may be to build the resilience of native species.

This can be achieved through a method known as “conditioned taste aversion” – a learned association between the taste of a particular food and illness. One approach involves exposing native predators to small individuals of a toxic prey type, in the hope the predator will fall ill but not die, and learn to avoid eating that species in future.

Our previous lab and field research provided encouraging results. It suggested if we expose wild predators to small, non-lethal cane toads they learnt to delete cane toads from their diets, increasing their chance of survival after the larger toads invade.

We wanted to test this approach at a bigger scale – in the Kimberley region of northwestern Australia – to help protect yellow-spotted monitors (a type of goanna). Across Australia’s tropics, many populations of this species have declined more than 90% due to ingestion of cane toads.

The loss has affected the entire food web. Smaller predators have become more abundant and have access to more food, which means they can have larger impacts on prey species.

As well as their ecological role, yellow-spotted monitors are also an important cultural species and traditional food source for Indigenous people.

Our project set out to teach wild yellow-spotted monitors to leave the toxic amphibian alone, by exposing them to “teacher toads”: young individuals less poisonous than adult toads.

Read more:
A secret war between cane toads and parasitic lungworms is raging across Australia

The results were clear

Rolling out a conservation strategy in an area as huge and rugged as the Kimberly wilderness is no easy task. To take on this challenge, we assembled a coalition of stakeholders including researchers, wildlife management agencies, non-government organisations, private landowners and Indigenous groups.

We worked with the Bunuba Rangers and the WA Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions. First, we captured adult female toads that were about to lay their eggs. Once the eggs were laid we transported them, or the tadpoles, to places we knew would be invaded by the toads within a few months.

It might seem unusual to release many thousands of baby pest toads into the environment. But we knew vast numbers of adult toads would soon reach the area anyway. And importantly, we didn’t add any more cane toads into the landscape – we took female toads that were about to lay their eggs from one place, and released those eggs and babies into another place not too far away.

To monitor goanna populations, we used trail cameras set up to record any animal that approached our bait – a punctured tin of sardines. Goannas are strongly attracted to that smelly stimulus, so the method worked well. It also allowed us to work out how many goannas lived in each site before toads arrived.

The results of our intervention were clear. In three sites where we deployed our “teacher toads”, goannas remained abundant even after toads invaded. But in four nearby sites where goannas were equally abundant beforehand, their numbers plummeted.

Read more:
Is ‘Toadzilla’ a sign of enormous cane toads to come? It’s possible – toads grow as large as their environment allows

Lessons for the future

It will never be possible to deploy “teacher toads” across all of tropical Australia. But our results suggest strategic use of this method can help maintain pockets with healthy predator populations. Over time, the offspring of those survivors may repopulate other areas.

We’re optimistic that even a single deployment of baby toads may have long-term effects. That’s because once adult cane toads invade an area and begin breeding, it creates plenty of baby toads to “train” the next generation of goannas, without us having to keep adding more toads to the system.

Our study is a good example of bringing research results through to actual on-ground management. It also shows the benefits of academics working with Indigenous communities and government authorities to achieve real outcomes for wildlife conservation.

We have also demonstrated the promise of our technique for conservation challenges globally. If we can’t eliminate a threat to native wildlife, we might at least teach individual animals how to deal with it.

The authors would like to acknowledge the valuable contribution of the Bunuba Rangers to the research underpinning this article.

Rick Shine receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Georgia Ward-Fear does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. We can’t eradicate deadly cane toads – but there’s a way to stop them killing wildlife – https://theconversation.com/we-cant-eradicate-deadly-cane-toads-but-theres-a-way-to-stop-them-killing-wildlife-224744

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marcus Lower, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, CSIRO

After a decade of silence, one of the most powerful magnets in the universe suddenly burst back to life in late 2018. The reawakening of this “magnetar”, a city-sized star named XTE J1810-197 born from a supernova explosion, was an incredibly violent affair.

The snapping and untwisting of the tangled magnetic field released enormous amounts of energy as gamma rays, X-rays and radio waves.

By catching magnetar outbursts like this in action, astronomers are beginning to understand what drives their erratic behaviour. We are also finding potential links to enigmatic flashes of radio light seen from distant galaxies known as fast radio bursts.

In two new pieces of research published in Nature Astronomy, we used three of the world’s largest radio telescopes to capture a host of never before seen changes in the radio waves emitted by one of these rare objects in unprecedented detail.

Magnetic monsters

Magnetars are young neutron stars, with magnetic fields billions of times stronger than our most powerful Earth-based magnets. The slow decay of their magnetic fields creates an enormous amount of stress in their hard outer crust until it eventually fractures. This twists the magnetic field and releases large amounts of energetic X-rays and gamma rays as it unwinds.

These exotic stars were initially detected back in 1979 when an intense gamma-ray burst emitted by one was picked up by spacecraft across the Solar System. Since then, we’ve found another 30 magnetars, the vast majority of which have only been detected as sources of X-rays and gamma rays. However, a rare few have since been found to also emit flashes of radio waves.

Read more:
Explainer: what is a neutron star?

The first of these “radio-loud” magnetars goes by the name XTE J1810-197. Astronomers initially discovered it as a bright source of X-rays after an outburst in 2003, then found it emitted bright pulses of radio waves as it rotated every 5.54 seconds.

Unfortunately, the intensity of the radio pulses dropped rapidly, and within two years it had completely faded from view. XTE J1810-197 remained in this radio silent state for over a decade.

A wobbly start

On December 11 2018, astronomers using the University of Manchester’s 76-metre Lovell telescope at the Jodrell Bank Observatory noticed that XTE J1810-197 was once again emitting bright radio pulses. This was quickly confirmed by both the Max-Planck-Institut’s 100-metre Effelsberg radio telescope in Germany and Murriyang, CSIRO’s 64-metre Parkes radio telescope in Australia.

Following confirmation, all three telescopes began an intense campaign to track how the magnetar’s radio emission then evolved over time.

The reactivated radio pulses from XTE J1810-197 were found to be highly linearly polarised, appearing to wiggle either up and down, left to right, or some combination of the two. Careful measurements of the polarisation direction allowed us to determine how the magnetar’s magnetic field and spin direction are oriented with respect to the Earth.

Our diligent tracking of the polarisation direction revealed something remarkable: the direction of the star’s spin was slowly wobbling. By comparing the measured wobble against simulations, we were able to determine the magnetar’s surface had become slightly lumpy due to the outburst.

The amount of lumpiness was tiny, only about a millimetre off from being a perfect sphere, and gradually disappeared within three months of XTE J1810-917 waking up.

Twisted light

Normally, magnetars only emit very small amounts of circularly polarised radio waves, which travel in a spiral pattern. Unusually, we detected an enormous amount of circular polarisation in XTE J1810-197 during the 2018 outburst.

Our observations with Murriyang revealed the normally linearly polarised radio waves were being converted into circularly polarised waves.

Read more:
A rare magnetic star is born – with a push in the right direction

This “linear-to-circular conversion” had long been predicted to occur when radio waves travel through the super-heated soup of particles that resides in neutron star magnetic fields.

However, the theoretical predictions for how the effect should change with observing frequency did not match our observations, though we weren’t too surprised. The environment around a magnetar in outburst is a complicated place, and there are many effects that can be at play that relatively simple theories aren’t designed to account for.

Piecing it all together

The discovery of the slight wobble and the circular polarisation in the radio emission of XTE J1810-197 represents an exciting leap forwards in how we can study the outbursts of radio-loud magnetars. It also paints a more complete picture of the 2018 outburst.

We now know that cracking of the magnetar surface causes it to become distorted and wobble for a brief period of time, while the magnetic field becomes filled with super-hot particles whizzing about at almost light speed.

Read more:
This newly discovered neutron star might light the way for a whole new class of stellar object

Combined with other observations, the amount of wobble could be used to test our theories of how matter should behave at densities much higher than we could ever hope to replicate in labs on Earth. The inconsistency of the linear-to-circular conversion with theory, on the other hand, motivates us to devise more complex ideas of how radio waves escape from their magnetic fields.

What’s next?

While XTE J1810-197 remains active to this day, it has since settled into a more relaxed state with no further signs of wobbling or linear-to-circular conversion. There are however hints that both phenomena may have been seen in past observations of other radio-loud magnetars, and might be a common feature of their outbursts.

Like cats, it’s impossible to predict what a magnetar will do next. But with current and future upgrades to telescopes in Australia, Germany and North America, we are now more ready than ever to pounce the next time one decides to awaken.

Gregory Desvignes received funding from European Research Council (ERC) Synergy Grant “BlackHoleCam” Grant
Agreement Number 610058.

Patrick Weltevrede receives funding from Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC).

Marcus Lower does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. We saw one of the most powerful magnets in the Universe come to life – and our theories can’t quite explain it – https://theconversation.com/we-saw-one-of-the-most-powerful-magnets-in-the-universe-come-to-life-and-our-theories-cant-quite-explain-it-226312

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By C Raina MacIntyre, Professor of Global Biosecurity, NHMRC L3 Research Fellow, Head, Biosecurity Program, Kirby Institute, UNSW Sydney

The United States’ Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has issued a health alert after the first case of H5N1 avian influenza, or bird flu, seemingly spread from a cow to a human.

A farm worker in Texas contracted the virus amid an outbreak in dairy cattle. This is the second human case in the US; a poultry worker tested positive in Colorado in 2022.

The virus strain identified in the Texan farm worker is not readily transmissible between humans and therefore not a pandemic threat. But it’s a significant development nonetheless.

Some background on bird flu

There are two types of avian influenza: highly pathogenic or low pathogenic, based on the level of disease the strain causes in birds. H5N1 is a highly pathogenic avian influenza.

H5N1 first emerged in 1997 in Hong Kong and then China in 2003, spreading through wild bird migration and poultry trading. It has caused periodic epidemics in poultry farms, with occasional human cases.

Influenza A viruses such as H5N1 are further divided into variants, called clades. The unique variant causing the current epidemic is H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b, which emerged in late 2020 and is now widespread globally, especially in the Americas.

In the past, outbreaks could be controlled by culling of infected birds, and H5N1 would die down for a while. But this has become increasingly difficult due to escalating outbreaks since 2021.

Read more:
When should we worry about bird flu making us sick? When we see human-to-human transmission – and there’s no evidence of that yet

Wild animals are now in the mix

Waterfowl (ducks, swans and geese) are the main global spreaders of avian flu, as they migrate across the world via specific routes that bypass Australia. The main hub for waterfowl to migrate around the world is Quinghai lake in China.

But there’s been an increasing number of infected non-waterfowl birds, such as true thrushes and raptors, which use different flyways. Worryingly, the infection has spread to Antarctica too, which means Australia is now at risk from different bird species which fly here.

H5N1 has escalated in an unprecedented fashion since 2021, and an increasing number of mammals including sea lions, goats, red foxes, coyotes, even domestic dogs and cats have become infected around the world.

Wild animals like red foxes which live in peri-urban areas are a possible new route of spread to farms, domestic pets and humans.

Dairy cows and goats have now become infected with H5N1 in at least 17 farms across seven US states.

What are the symptoms?

Globally, there have been 14 cases of H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b virus in humans, and 889 H5N1 human cases overall since 2003.

Previous human cases have presented with a severe respiratory illness, but H5N1 2.3.4.4b is causing illness affecting other organs too, like the brain, eyes and liver.

For example, more recent cases have developed neurological complications including seizures, organ failure and stroke. It’s been estimated that around half of people infected with H5N1 will die.

The case in the Texan farm worker appears to be mild. This person presented with conjunctivitis, which is unusual.

Food safety

Contact with sick poultry is a key risk factor for human infection. Likewise, the farm worker in Texas was likely in close contact with the infected cattle.

The CDC advises pasteurised milk and well cooked eggs are safe. However, handling of infected meat or eggs in the process of cooking, or drinking unpasteurised milk, may pose a risk.

Although there’s no H5N1 in Australian poultry or cattle, hygienic food practices are always a good idea, as raw milk or poorly cooked meat, eggs or poultry can be contaminated with microbes such as salmonella and E Coli.

If it’s not a pandemic, why are we worried?

Scientists have feared avian influenza may cause a pandemic since about 2005. Avian flu viruses don’t easily spread in humans. But if an avian virus mutates to spread in humans, it can cause a pandemic.

One concern is if birds were to infect an animal like a pig, this acts as a genetic mixing vessel. In areas where humans and livestock exist in close proximity, for example farms, markets or even in homes with backyard poultry, the probability of bird and human flu strains mixing and mutating to cause a new pandemic strain is higher.

The cows infected in Texas were tested because farmers noticed they were producing less milk. If beef cattle are similarly affected, it may not be as easily identified, and the economic loss to farmers may be a disincentive to test or report infections.

How can we prevent a pandemic?

For now there is no spread of H5N1 between humans, so there’s no immediate risk of a pandemic.

However, we now have unprecedented and persistent infection with H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b in farms, wild animals and a wider range of wild birds than ever before, creating more chances for H5N1 to mutate and cause a pandemic.

Unlike the previous epidemiology of avian flu, where hot spots were in Asia, the new hot spots (and likely sites of emergence of a pandemic) are in the Americas, Europe or in Africa.

Pandemics grow exponentially, so early warnings for animal and human outbreaks are crucial. We can monitor infections using surveillance tools such as our EPIWATCH platform.

The earlier epidemics can be detected, the better the chance of stamping them out and rapidly developing vaccines.

Although there is a vaccine for birds, it has been largely avoided until recently because it’s only partially effective and can mask outbreaks. But it’s no longer feasible to control an outbreak by culling infected birds, so some countries like France began vaccinating poultry in 2023.

Read more:
Migrating birds could bring lethal avian flu to Australia’s vulnerable birds

For humans, seasonal flu vaccines may provide a small amount of cross-protection, but for the best protection, vaccines need to be matched exactly to the pandemic strain, and this takes time. The 2009 flu pandemic started in May in Australia, but the vaccines were available in September, after the pandemic peak.

To reduce the risk of a pandemic, we must identify how H5N1 is spreading to so many mammalian species, what new wild bird pathways pose a risk, and monitor for early signs of outbreaks and illness in animals, birds and humans. Economic compensation for farmers is also crucial to ensure we detect all outbreaks and avoid compromising the food supply.

C Raina MacIntyre receives funding from NHMRC (L3 Investigator grant and Centre for Research Excellence) and MRFF (Aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 experimentally and in an intensive care setting) currently. She currently receives funding from Sanofi for research on influenza and pertussis. She is the director of EPIWATCH®️, which is a UNSW, Kirby Institute initiative.

Ashley Quigley receives funding from the Balvi Filantropic Fund.

Haley Stone receives funding from The Balvi Filantropic Fund. Haley Stone would like to acknowledge the support through a University International Postgraduate Award from the University of New South Wales.

Rebecca Dawson receives funding from the Balvi Filantropic Fund.

Matthew Scotch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. A person in Texas caught bird flu after mixing with dairy cattle. Should we be worried? – https://theconversation.com/a-person-in-texas-caught-bird-flu-after-mixing-with-dairy-cattle-should-we-be-worried-227223

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Parmeter, Research Scholar, Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, Australian National University

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set a high bar for victory right at the start of the Gaza conflict: the complete destruction of Hamas and freedom for all of the approximately 250 hostages taken by the group during its raid into Israel on October 7 last year.

He has doubled down several times on these objectives. During a media conference in January, he said:

There are those who claim victory is impossible. I utterly reject this. Israel, under my leadership, will not compromise on less than total victory over Hamas.

On that measure, Israel is still a long way from victory six months into the war. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have had no trouble destroying buildings and other infrastructure in Gaza, resulting in enormous numbers of civilian casualties and immense suffering for residents, but their hold on territory seems tenuous.

Israeli journalist Anshel Pfeffer wrote in this week’s Sunday Times, for instance, that when he was embedded with an IDF unit recently, he had observed what he believed to be Hamas snipers in the ruins of the Al-Shifa Hospital following the army’s “successful” conclusion of its operations there.

The other goal of freeing the Israeli hostages still seems far off, as well. There were hopes for more releases following the brief ceasefire in November negotiated by Qatar, Egypt and the US, which led to the exchange of 105 hostages for 240 Palestinian prisoners.

But just three Israeli hostages have so far been freed by Israeli military action. About 100 hostages are believed to be still in Gaza, and alive.

Despite these poor results, Netanyahu argues that only military pressure on Hamas will lead to more hostage releases. Netanyahu, who leads the most right-wing government in Israel’s history, has the support of his cabinet in this belief.

Some far-right members of the cabinet have threatened to leave the government if he waivers from this aim. And this would cause his government to collapse, requiring fresh elections. On current polling, Netanyahu would surely lose by a substantial margin.

However, Netanyahu’s emphasis on the military defeat of Hamas has raised questions among many Israelis as to whether focus on the military campaign has downgraded negotiations on hostage releases.

An opinion poll by the Hebrew University in mid-January showed that nearly half of those surveyed said the main priority should be the hostages. The large demonstrations in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem in recent weeks against Netanyahu’s management of the war suggest this proportion may now be higher.

So, is Hamas then ‘winning’?

Unlike the Netanyahu government, the Hamas leadership has not publicly set a standard by which it might measure victory. However, it’s obvious: the war is a zero-sum game. If Hamas survives, Israel loses.

That’s a much lower bar, and Hamas seems to believe it has the momentum. Since the temporary truce in November, Hamas has hardened its demands for a new hostage-prisoner exchange deal to include a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and permanent ceasefire.

Hamas is well aware that Israel has lost considerable international support over the course of the war – particularly with the Biden administration in the US, but also with its other traditional sympathisers in the West. The IDF’s targeted, if mistaken, killing of seven aid workers with the charity World Central Kitchen last week has only added to this international anger.

Read more:
More than 200 aid workers have been killed in Gaza, making famine more likely

Following the aid worker killings, Biden had a diplomatically “direct” (read, angry) phone call with Netanyahu, during which he called the overall humanitarian situation in Gaza “unacceptable”. He also demanded Israel implement specific and concrete measures to address civilian harm and the safety of all aid workers.

Biden then made a scarcely veiled threat to reassess US “policy with respect to Gaza” if Netanyahu failed to take immediate action.

Netanyahu has become accustomed to facing down US presidents over his years in power, but Biden’s message certainly got through to him. He hurriedly convened a cabinet meeting to approve the opening of three aid pathways into Gaza.

But did this really mark a turning point for US support for Israel? The US has already reduced its diplomatic support for Israel, having abstained on a ceasefire resolution in the UN Security Council last month, which allowed it to pass.

A far more serious step would be to reduce or place conditions on US weapons sales to Israel. However, such a move is not likely at this stage. It would run counter to the long-held bipartisan US policy towards Israel, which virtually since the creation of the Jewish state has been to ensure its survival in a region where it is surrounded by enemies.

US restrictions on military aid are even more unlikely in Israel’s current security environment, facing threats not only from Hamas, but also Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Iranian-backed militants in Iraq and Syria. Iran has also made threats against Israel following an apparent Israeli strike against the Iranian consulate in Damascus last week.

Can the stalemate be broken?

Netanyahu’s problem is that Biden has now limited Israel’s freedom of action in prosecuting the war. Invading the southern Gaza area of Rafah would cause huge numbers of civilian casualties and incur further American wrath, so Israel is likely to hold off for the time being.

Both the US and Israel will be hoping the negotiations that resumed in Egypt this week can achieve a breakthrough. Even though Egyptian media is saying progress has been made on a deal, the negotiations have dragged on for months, it remains to be seen whether both sides can find a compromise on the most contentious points of disagreement.

Read more:
The UN Security Council has finally called for a ceasefire in Gaza. But will it have any effect?

Biden’s other main problem when it comes to reining in Netanyahu is the US does not have an alternative plan for dealing with Hamas.

Biden’s warning to Netanyahu was focused on reducing civilian casualties and allowing more aid into Gaza. But he is not saying the Israeli objective of destroying Hamas in Gaza has to be abandoned.

Biden’s plan for a political settlement in the territory is for the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank to be revitalised and take over management of Gaza after Hamas’s defeat. How that might be achieved given the Palestinian Authority has little credibility with Palestinians and even less with Israelis is not at all clear.

Even more worryingly, Hamas’s demise still seems a long way off.

Ian Parmeter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Facing enormous pressure at home and abroad, how much longer can Israel continue its war in Gaza? – https://theconversation.com/facing-enormous-pressure-at-home-and-abroad-how-much-longer-can-israel-continue-its-war-in-gaza-227350

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Francois Guillard, Senior Lecturer in Geotechnical Engineering, University of Sydney

Sinkholes are back in the news after a 13-year-old boy fell down a two metre deep hole in a waterlogged football field in Sydney over the weekend. The boy reportedly sank further into the hole every time he tried to push down with his feet, but was later rescued by a police officer who pulled him out by his wrists.

Sinkholes aren’t uncommon. Two opened up in the Sydney suburb of Rockdale in March, one of which reportedly left a commercial building at risk of collapsing. Another large sinkhole opened up in the South Australian city of Mount Gambier last year.

So, what is a sinkhole and why do they happen?

Read more:
Inskip beach collapse: just don’t call it a ‘sinkhole’

What is a sinkhole?

A sinkhole is basically a hole which appears to suddenly open up in the ground. However, the process that leads to a sinkhole is not so sudden and may have been developing over a long period.

Sinkholes happen when a cavity starts to grow underground. It expands over time, but the soil on the surface is strong enough to hold together and form a “ceiling” over the cavity. This ceiling is essential, otherwise you don’t have a sinkhole; you just have a hole.

At some point the surface layer becomes too thin or too weak and it collapses under its weight (or, in the Sydney case on the weekend, under the weight of a 13-year-old boy).

When the ceiling collapses you end up with a hole that exposes the cavity previously hidden underground.

If the cavity is deep enough underground and surrounded by strong enough rocks, it may grow and never collapse, eventually forming tunnels and cave systems. In some cases, however, these caves may link up with localised sinkholes at the surface.

So what causes the cavity?

Acidic rainwater can degrade underground rock. This can create underground caves which can eventually collapse into sinkholes. Sinkholes of this type need a specific type of geology; you need certain rocks prone to dissolution. It is common in the Middle East and the United States for example.

In Australia, we more commonly see sinkholes emerging due to underground erosion. Here, flowing groundwater carries soil out of the area. The more the cavity opens up underground, the more water gets drawn to it and the higher the chance of a sinkhole. Water flow rate can increase over time, creating a snowball effect heightening the risk of the soil ceiling collapsing.

The sinkhole that appeared in Sydney over the weekend may already have been growing quietly for a while, and could have expanded faster as the weekend’s intense rain soaked into the soil. All it took was someone to walk over the top.

Human factors can play a part. For example, a leaking underground pipe can, over time, worsen underground erosion and may increase risk of a sinkhole developing.

How common are they?

They are not uncommon but it’s not really possible to say how many are in Australia.

The sinkholes you hear about in the media generally attract attention because they are in a city, so the public are more likely to interact with them and the risk to buildings or people may be greater.

But they can happen everywhere. I have seen them while bush walking just outside of Sydney.

How dangerous are they?

Most will not be dangerous as they may be quite small. But until the surface opens, there’s no way of knowing there is a sinkhole underground, and it’s hard to know from the outside what size cavity sits beneath the surface. You might have a small opening you can see from the surface but a very big cavity underneath.

That can make them dangerous or, at the very least, a problem.

Large sinkholes can happen but small ones are much more common. To get to bigger ones, the cavity ceiling needs to be able to sustain itself for a very long period of time, which is unusual.

But they can get very big. There are some very large sinkholes in Mexico that I discuss in my unit on geotechnical engineering. One has a diameter of about 60 metres.

A 30-metre-wide sinkhole opened up in the Japanese city of Fukuoka in 2016.

Another example of an area prone to sinkholes is Florida, as the carbonate rocks in the ground there are more susceptible being dissolved by water.

So in general, sinkholes are not uncommon but they usually don’t get reported unless they are very big or pose a risk to people or property.

My colleagues and I have a grant to study the formation of sinkholes, so we can better understand risk and how to predict where they might happen.

Read more:
Why is Australia’s east coast copping all this rain right now? An atmospheric scientist explains

Francois Guillard receives funding from the ARC.

– ref. What is a sinkhole? A geotechnical engineer explains – https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-sinkhole-a-geotechnical-engineer-explains-227347

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachel Morrison, Associate Professor, Auckland University of Technology

Gossip flows through the offices and lunchrooms of our workplaces, seemingly filling idle time. But perhaps, through these ubiquitous and intriguing conversations, we are influencing our workplace relationships more than we realise.

Is gossiping a route to friendship or a surefire way to make workplace enemies? It turns out the answer hinges on how the recipient of the gossip perceives the intentions of the gossiper.

Workplace gossip – defined as informal and evaluative talk about absent colleagues – is pervasive yet often misunderstood.

Traditionally frowned upon and branded as unproductive or even deviant, recent research paints a more complex picture of gossip.

While some studies imply that gossip leads to friendships between coworkers, others suggest it undermines workplace relationships. Our research indicates these apparently contradictory findings stem from misunderstanding the nuances of how gossip shapes workplace social relations.

We focused on gossip recipients – the listeners – and asked how they perceived these exchanges, and what effect receiving gossip had on their relationships with coworkers.

Understanding workplace gossip

Researchers use three frameworks or concepts to make sense of workplace gossip.

The “exchange perspective” holds that gossip binds coworkers to one another through a sort of quid pro quo. A colleague may offer informational morsels, with an expectation of social support and inside information in return.

Read more:
The science of gossip: four ways to make it less toxic

The “reputational information perspective” focuses on how gossip shapes recipients’ views of targets – the people the gossip is about. Vital information might be shared to warn others about toxic personalities or to signal someone as particularly trustworthy.

Finally, the “gossip valence” refers to whether gossip conveys positive or negative information about its target.

The effect of hearing gossip

Our research looks at how gossip affects the recipient’s perception of the person sharing the gossip.

Data was collected from participants using two techniques: written incident reports and follow-up interviews. This approach provided the researchers with detailed descriptions of how workplace gossip incidents affected interpersonal relationships from the recipient’s perspective.

Our findings show that the recipients’ perceptions of these exchanges matter a great deal. In particular, their interpretation of the gossiper’s intentions can set off a chain reaction.

If the recipient judges the gossiper’s intentions as genuine and authentic – a way of opening up about one’s real views of coworkers – gossip can spark a new friendship or rekindle an old one.

When one person says, “I find it so frustrating when Mark talks down to me like that”, for example, the recipient has been trusted with the gossiper’s true feelings about Mark, a problematic colleague. This creates a stronger bond – especially if the recipient agrees with the opinion.

Curiously – and perhaps a little worryingly – we found negative gossip was a stronger way of building friendships than positive gossip, provided intentions were interpreted as genuine.

Read more:
Australian law says the media can’t spin lies – ‘entertainment magazines’ aren’t an exception

If the recipient evaluates the intention as prosocial – in other words, sharing accurate and valuable information that benefits people other than the gossiper – trust increases and collegial relationships are strengthened.

As one research participant explained:

I actually noticed that the source is the kind of guy that only really says positive things about people […] That’s why I think I began to trust him because he doesn’t run people down too much.

If the gossiper’s intentions are perceived as self-serving, the recipient’s trust in them goes down and there’s little likelihood of the two becoming friends.

One participant explained:

They said this to damage her reputation and cause drama in the workplace.

While another said:

After listening to him gossiping about another waitress, I felt very uncomfortable. I was afraid of him saying negative things about me if I make mistakes.

Not just idle chatter

Our study supports the idea that gossip isn’t merely idle chatter but a valuable (and risky) social currency.

We often engage in gossip without even thinking about why we’re doing so. But our findings show other people pay a lot of attention to our motivations for gossiping.

Given we have little control over how our intentions are interpreted by others, this study is a timely reminder to think before you share gossip.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Office gossip isn’t just idle chatter. It’s a valuable – but risky – way to build relationships – https://theconversation.com/office-gossip-isnt-just-idle-chatter-its-a-valuable-but-risky-way-to-build-relationships-227220