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If a Year 12 student gets an early offer for uni, does it mean they stop trying?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew J. Martin, Scientia Professor and Professor of Educational Psychology, UNSW Sydney

Ground Picture/Shutterstock

Early entry schemes for university – where students get an offer before their final exams – are increasingly popular.

For example, more than 27,000 students applied to the Universities Admissions Centre (which mostly deals with New South Wales and Australian Capital Territory unis) for an early offer in 2024. This was a record number and an almost 19% increase on 2023.

On the one hand, early offers are seen as a way to reduce pressure on Year 12 students. But they are also increasingly criticised, with concerns students may stop trying once they receive an offer.

Our new research shows applying for an early offer does not make a significant difference to how hard a student tries leading up to their final exams or their final results.

What are early offers?

The main round of university offers is in December-January, after students have done their final exams in the previous October and November and have their final results or ATAR.

With early entry offer schemes, universities assess students using criteria other than (or on top of) final results.

Amid concerns about students reducing their efforts, in February this year, federal and state education ministers agreed there would be no university offers until September. Federal Education Minister Jason Clare is pushing for a new, national approach to early entry by 2027.

A teenage boy writes at a desk in a bedroom, he has a laptop next to him.
Year 12 students around Australia sit their final exams in October and November.
Monkey Business Images/ Shutterstock



Read more:
‘I don’t believe I would have gotten into university’: how early entry schemes help Year 12 students experiencing disadvantage


Our research

Our new study investigated the role of early entry offers on Year 12 students’ academic and personal wellbeing.

We looked at three types of students: students applying for and receiving an early offer, students applying for but not receiving an early offer, and students who did not apply for an early offer.

We then looked at multiple forms of academic and personal wellbeing, including:

  • the ATAR

  • motivation at school (their interest, energy, and drive to learn) and enjoyment of school

  • how students dealt with academic challenges (also called “academic buoyancy”)

  • study burnout

  • overall life satisfaction, mental health and self-esteem.

Who did we study?

The study involved Year 12 students in 2022 from schools in New South Wales.

The average age for participants was 17, most (68%) were female, the majority (69%) lived in an urban area, just under a quarter (23%) were from a non-English speaking background, and just over half were from government schools (52%).

We tracked the ATARs of 1,512 students for whom we had early offer data.

We also surveyed a subset of 525 students from this group. We surveyed them in term 2 of Year 12 and then followed up with a second survey in term 4, about 2 weeks before their final exams.

The surveys included questions about their academic and personal wellbeing. Both surveys were done online.

What we found

In terms of early entry status, 16% did not apply for an early offer, 21% applied but were unsuccessful, and 63% received an early offer.

Using statistical modelling to control for prior differences in achievement and motivation between the groups, as well as age, gender, school type and learning difficulties, we found an early offer did not appear to have an impact on a student’s ATAR.

We also found no impact on their motivation, effort, burnout or mental health.

In fact, the best predictors of students’ final results were their previous results and their efforts earlier in Year 12.

As our research showed, the findings for these predictors were statistically significant, meaning we can have confidence the results were not due to chance.

This mirrors other research that suggests you can predict a student’s ATAR from their Year 11 results.

Two female students sit in a classroom, looking like they are listening to what is happening.
Students in our study did not stop trying if they had an early offer to uni.
Jacob Lund/ Shutterstock

One important difference

We did find one statistically significant effect. Those receiving an early offer scored about 10% higher in academic buoyancy than the other two groups.

This means these students reported they were better able to overcome academic challenges, such as difficult assessment tasks and competing deadlines, as they approached their final exams.

We found this difference even after controlling for any prior group differences in academic buoyancy.

But we note it was only a relatively small effect.

Why was there so little difference?

Some possible explanations about why early offers did not appear to make much difference include:

  • Year 12 is a busy year full of activities (from formals and other events, to plans for life after school). It could be early entry status is quickly absorbed in all the demands of the final year and becomes normalised

  • the joy or relief of an early offer is short-lived and students return to their emotional equilibrium or their typical “set point” in terms of outlook on life

  • the ATAR looms large in students’ lives, so they may still want to do as well as they can – regardless of whether they get an early offer or not.

What does this mean?

Our study suggests receiving an early offer for university does not make much of a difference to final outcomes.

So this suggests students can apply for an early entry offer if they want to.

But once the application is submitted, they need to return their focus to factors that are influential in final outcomes — such as their learning, motivation, and engagement through Year 12.


Helen Tam, Kim Paino, Anthony Manny, Mitch Smith and Nicole Swanson from the Universities Admissions Centre helped with the research on which this article is based.

The Conversation

Andrew J. Martin has received funding from the Australian Research Council, International Boys’ Schools Coalition, NSW Department of Education, and Commonwealth Department of Education.

ref. If a Year 12 student gets an early offer for uni, does it mean they stop trying? – https://theconversation.com/if-a-year-12-student-gets-an-early-offer-for-uni-does-it-mean-they-stop-trying-241787

Unemployment’s up, house prices are stagnating. But is the Victorian economy doing as badly as it seems?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Hayward, Emeritus Professor of Public Policy, RMIT University

The early 1990s in Victoria were tough. The economy was contracting severely, the population was shrinking, employment was collapsing and the unemployment rate skyrocketed to the highest in the land.

A long-term Labor government got the blame for allowing state debt to spiral out of control. Victoria, reckoned a popular joke at the time, was “Australia’s Mexico without the sunshine”.

Is it happening all over again?

Some reporting in national media would suggest it is.

The Australian Financial Review has recently run a series on the state, including a piece last week quoting business leaders saying the Victorian economy was in trouble.

Reference was made to the latest unemployment figures as supporting evidence. Victoria’s unemployment rate has risen over the last year, and at 4.4% is now the highest in the country. Rising numbers of company failures and stagnant house prices were also cited.

Earlier in the month, data showing a falling rate of Victorian business start-ups was highlighted, while another Financial Review article examined the decline in the number of conferences. All this was referred to as evidence of a state struggling under the weight of

$8.6 billion in levies [imposed] in [Labor’s] 2023 budget to curb a mountain of state debt that is forecast to reach $188 billion by 2028.

The Australian also ran a feature on Victoria echoing the same themes.

Readers were asked, “What the hell has gone wrong with Victoria?”. Public debt and taxation figured as prominent causes of an economic catastrophe in the making. The Australian deemed the state to be

at best, trapped in stagnation, forcing it to cover falling private investment and expenditure with ever greater public largesse. And at worst […] as the spending and debt build-up sets off the alarms, a vicious spiral is triggered […] until the whole Ponzi scheme collapses.

But are things that bad? What does the economic data actually show?

Some positive signs

It is true that unemployment in Victoria is rising, and is also high compared to the rest of the country. But it has been stable for the last four months, reflecting the impact of interest rate increases over the previous couple of years.

Also, looking back over the last 40 years, the increase has been from a very low base, and remains at an historically low level – and a long way off the highs of the 1990s.



The number of people in the labour force is continuing to grow at a healthy clip. The participation rate is now the highest on record.

Last month, the labour force increased in seasonally adjusted terms by 20,000, and almost all of these additional people ended up in employment.

The growth in employment since the end of the pandemic is notable.

Since January 2023, employment has increased by 268,000, or 8% in seasonally adjusted terms. That’s 37% of the jobs added in the whole of Australia during that time.

Yes, the share of job growth is falling, but it is still higher than the state’s population share, and it is from an unbelievably high base (55% of all jobs created nationally in July were in Victoria).

The Australian Financial Review acknowledged that the latest jobs data were indeed “unexpectedly strong”.

What about business insolvencies?

Victorian insolvencies are on the rise (up 61% in September compared to the same month last year). But so too are they across Australia, with the national number rising at a higher clip (up 70%).

What about the number of conferences in Victoria? We simply cannot be sure whether they are up or down, because there is no consistent data base to settle the matter.

And while Victoria may have fallen behind other states in the number of new startups per 1,000 businesses, the actual number of businesses has increased by more than 31,000, or 3%, since the beginning of the year.

How are house prices and rents holding up?

Yes, house prices are tumbling. In real terms, they are around 20% below their pandemic peak, at least partly caused by a bundle of new property taxes introduced in the 2023/24 state budget to help pay for pandemic-related debt.

But with housing affordability at an all-time low courtesy of high interest rates, that is no bad thing, especially for those keen to buy their first home.

That fall in house prices stands in contrast to a boom in rents over the same time period.

Over the last 12 months, median rents in Victoria have increased by 13.3%, and by 4.3% over the last quarter. In the March quarter, the rental stock fell for the first time on record, perhaps supporting those who see an economy in trouble.

But that fall amounted to barely 10,000 dwellings, or only 2.7% of the stock. Those properties had to be sold to someone, and it is likely many were sold to first time buyers who, in changing tenure, had no net effect on the rental market. A redistribution of wealth like that may be no bad thing.

Debt is high – but so is infrastructure spending

There is no doubt the Victorian economy has been slowing, as has the rest of the country. That is exactly the outcome sought by the Reserve Bank when it pushed up interest rates last year.

But there is little evidence to show Victoria is following the disastrous path of the early 1990s.

Back then, state debt grew alarmingly because of a savage recession. This time round, state debt has grown strongly, but largely to fund a construction pipeline on a scale the state has not seen before.

Infrastructure spending is now running close to $25 billion a year, almost five times what it was a decade ago. There’s a lot of jobs in those numbers, and shortly a lot of that infrastructure will come on line, boosting the state’s economic potential.



There is one other factor driving Victoria’s surprisingly resilient economy. Net international migration increased by 152,000 in the year to March 2024 – almost 30% of the Australian total – driven partly by the return of international students.



Very fast, migration-driven population growth is not being matched by increased output, and the state’s household income per person is continuing its long-term decline, leading some to argue it has become a “poor state”.

Treasurer Tim Pallas will hope that the increase stock of debt-funded infrastructure provides the productivity boost sorely needed to turn that around.

While on several indicators Victoria’s economy is slowing, this largely reflects a national trend. Drilling down into the data shows there are signs of growth, which suggest alarm at this stage is not justified.

The Conversation

David Hayward does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Unemployment’s up, house prices are stagnating. But is the Victorian economy doing as badly as it seems? – https://theconversation.com/unemployments-up-house-prices-are-stagnating-but-is-the-victorian-economy-doing-as-badly-as-it-seems-241762

Netflix’s Territory is a Succession-like drama packed with family rivalry and betrayal, set in Australia’s outback

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexa Scarlata, Research Fellow, Media & Communication, RMIT University

Netflix

The Australian commissioning team at Netflix has had a pretty good run over the past 12 months. In January, the adaptation of Trent Dalton’s novel Boy Swallows Universe proved to be the most successful Australian-made show to that point, scoring 7.6 million views globally in its first two weeks.

A few months later, the second season of the streamer’s Heartbreak High reboot debuted at number one in Australia, and stayed on the Global Top 10 English TV Series list for three consecutive weeks.

Will Netflix’s latest Australian series – one without any ties to a familiar book or TV show – be as well received? Luckily for the streamer, its new six-part outback western, Territory, has already been described as “epic”, “unforgettable” and “rollicking TV”.

Robert Taylor plays patriarch Colin Lawson.
Netflix

Premium bush family drama

The series takes place in the Northern Territory, on the “world’s largest cattle station”. The fictional Marianne Station is about the size of Belgium.

The once-great dynasty of its owners, the Lawson family, is thrown into doubt when their heir apparent dies in the first episode. The Top End’s most powerful players – billionaire miners, rival cattle barons, desert gangsters and Indigenous elders – immediately start circling.

While this is an original concept by creators Timothy Lee and Ben Davies, you’d be forgiven for feeling a sense of déjà vu, as Territory has been described as equal parts Succession and Yellowstone. I can imagine Netflix executives running the numbers on the returns from those two hits and saying, “let’s throw some money into this”. And boy, did they.

The show could double as a sophisticated Tourism Australia ad.
Netflix

No expenses spared on hats and helicopters

Territory was directed by Wolf Creek heavyweight Greg McLean. According to him, it’s the

biggest South Australian TV production ever. Possibly one of the biggest TV productions in Australia just in terms of the amount of crew (and) the incredible support that we had to put in place to go to the locations we went to.

As Netflix put it, Bondi Beach this is not. While the interiors were filmed in South Australia, half of the series was filmed in stunning remote locations across the NT.

As a result, the show looks like the most ambitious and sophisticated Tourism Australia ad you’ve ever seen. The wildlife! The panoramic drone shots! The hat budget! The rest of the world could go from thinking we ride kangaroos to work, to assuming we’ve all got our own helicopters.

Overseas viewers watching would be forgiven for thinking the lot of us have our own helicopters.
Netflix

The show looks as expensive as it sounds, but is still kind of soapy. The irony in this story is that everyone’s dirty, but no one ever sweats.

Territory was originally announced as “Desert King”. Changing the name was wise. The landscape is, for the most part, pretty lush – and not in a “look at this oasis we’ve stumbled upon” kind of way. I counted one fly.

Desert queens

What’s more, while the male characters are brilliant sources of humour and violence, it’s the ladies in Territory that bring the heart.

Anna Torv leads the series as Emily Lawson. Emily is the wife to the next-in-line but perpetually drunk Graham (Michael Dorman). She’s also the girl from the property next door, belonging to the rival Hodge family – a slightly shifty bunch who’ve been known to steal the Lawson’s cattle.

Anna Torv plays Emily Lawson with a keen sense of cunning.
Netflix

Torv was the perfect choice to embody Emily as the long-suffering wife, disdained daughter-in-law, loving sister and exasperated mother. Her poker face kept me guessing. She may not be a Lawson by blood, but her cunning makes her a great fit in this powerful family.

Kylah Day plays Sharnie Kennedy, a young kid kicking (and fooling) around with a couple of Top End bandits. It was fun – if a little frustrating – to watch her figure out her loyalties and her limits.

Finally, Sara Wiseman plays Sandra Kirby, a disgustingly wealthy and ruthless land developer who doubles as the quintessential villain. Sandra plays everyone – even her own son. Her merciless manipulation of aspiring Indigenous cattle baron Nolan Brannock (Clarence Ryan) stings, even as it feels quite heavy-handed.

Clarence Ryan is impressive in his role as Indigenous station owner Nolan Brannock (left), who gets caught up in the drama.
Netflix

Whose land and whose legacy?

Territory does a great job of establishing a simmering tension between the traditional owners of the land and the families and businesses that have taken possession of it.

But for a show that’s so centred on the battle for power in the Top End, the plotlines that deal with the issue of dispossession move at a frustratingly slow pace.

Perhaps this is to cater to a global audience, which will likely lack the context that local viewers have. And maybe, for Australian viewers, the enduring subordination and struggle of the original landowners is the intended takeaway.

Ultimately, Territory is an ambitious and attractive series. It was wonderful to see so many resources poured into a new concept, filmed and set in a part of Australia that rarely sees the kind of spotlight it deserves.

Sam Delich and Kylah Day play petty thieves Rich Petrakis and Sharnie Kennedy.
Netflix

Territory is streaming on Netflix from today.

The Conversation

Alexa Scarlata does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Netflix’s Territory is a Succession-like drama packed with family rivalry and betrayal, set in Australia’s outback – https://theconversation.com/netflixs-territory-is-a-succession-like-drama-packed-with-family-rivalry-and-betrayal-set-in-australias-outback-241896

This Atlanta neighborhood hired a case manager to address rising homelessness − and it’s improving health and safety for everyone

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ishita Chordia, Ph.D. Candidate in Information Science, University of Washington

Mural by artist Chris Wright on Metropolitan Avenue in East Atlanta. Art Rudick/Atlanta Street Art Map, CC BY-ND

Homelessness has surged across the United States in recent years, rising 19% from 2016 though 2023. The main cause is a severe shortage of affordable housing. Rising homelessness has renewed debates about use of public space and how encampments affect public safety.

The U.S. Supreme Court recently weighed in on these debates with its 2024 decision in Grants Pass v. Johnson. The court’s ruling grants cities the authority to prohibit individuals from sleeping and camping in public spaces, effectively condoning the use of fines and bans to address rising rates of homelessness.

East Atlanta Village, a historically Black neighborhood in Atlanta with about 3,000 residents, is trying something different. In the fall of 2023, with support from the Atlanta City Council, the mayor’s office and Intown Cares, a local nonprofit that works to alleviate homelessness and hunger, the neighborhood hired a full-time social worker to support people experiencing homelessness.

Michael Nolan, an Intown Cares social worker, is trained in an approach that emphasizes individual autonomy and dignity, recognizes that being homeless is a traumatic experience, and prioritizes access to housing. His role includes helping individuals get the documentation they need to move off the streets, such as copies of their birth certificates and Social Security cards. He also has a dedicated phone line that community members can use to alert him about dangerous situations that involve homeless people.

Michael Nolan, East Atlanta Village’s social worker, spends 40-plus hours weekly providing supplies, services and other help to people experiencing homelessness.

I am a researcher at the University of Washington studying programs and technologies that help urban neighborhoods flourish. I’m also a resident of East Atlanta Village and have helped the neighborhood organize and evaluate this experiment.

For the past year, my colleagues and I have collected data about the neighborhood social work program to understand how well it can support both people without housing and the broader community. Our preliminary findings suggest that neighborhood social work is a promising way to address challenges common in many neighborhoods with homelessness.

I believe this approach has the potential to provide long-term solutions to homelessness and improve the health and safety for the entire neighborhood. I also see it as a sharp contrast with the punitive approach condoned by the Supreme Court.

Resolving conflicts over public space

One of the people I interviewed while evaluating this initiative was Rebecca, a resident of East Atlanta Village who walks her dog in the local park every day. In the fall of 2023, she noticed that a man had moved into the park and set up a tent. At first, the area was clean, but within a few weeks there was garbage around the tent and throughout the park.

Rebecca felt that the trash was ruining one of the few green spaces in the neighborhood. She decided to contact Nolan. Nolan told her that he knew the unhoused man, was working with him to secure permanent housing and in the meantime would help him move his tent to a less-frequented space.

Such negotiations around public spaces are common challenges for neighborhoods with large homeless populations, especially in dense urban areas. Other examples in our data included conflicts when a homeless person began sleeping in his car outside another resident’s home, and when a homeless man wandered into a homeowner’s yard.

The standard approach in these situations is to fine, ban or imprison the unhoused individual. But those strategies are expensive, can prolong homelessness and do little to actually resolve the issues.

In contrast, hiring a social worker has enabled East Atlanta Village to resolve conflicts gently, through conversation and negotiation. The solutions address concerns about public health and safety and also offer people without homes an opportunity for long-term change.

Meeting basic needs

Over the past year, this program has helped 13 people move into housing. Nolan has facilitated over 180 medical and mental health care visits for people living on the street.

Eighty-six people have been connected to Medicaid, food assistance or Social Security benefits. Thirty-five people have health care for the first time, and six people have started receiving medication for their addictions.

Research shows that addressing people’s basic needs by helping them obtain food, medicine, housing and other necessities not only supports those individuals but also produces cascading benefits for the entire community. They include reduced inequality, better health outcomes and lower crime rates.

Managing mental and behavioral health

Studies have found that about two-thirds of unhoused individuals struggle with mental health challenges. Unmet mental and behavioral health needs can contribute to unsafe and illegal behavior.

The United States does not have a comprehensive system in place for supporting people who are living on the street and struggling with chronic mental and behavioral health challenges. While much more infrastructure is needed, in East Atlanta Village, Nolan is able to check in on people experiencing homelessness, work with clinics to deliver medication for addiction and mental health needs and alert community members about dangerous situations.

As an example, in December 2023 a homeless man was arrested in East Atlanta Village for trespassing, stealing mail and other erratic behavior. When concerned residents posted to the neighborhood Facebook group, Nolan responded that he knew the man well, that this behavior was not typical and that he would look into the situation.

Nolan later updated his post, commenting that the man had been arrested but that he would “continue to follow up and ensure that his current behaviors do not return upon his release.”

In other examples, Nolan has helped de-escalate situations when people experienced mental health episodes in local coffee shops and churches.

A model for other cities

Cities around the U.S. have decisions to make about addressing homelessness and its associated challenges. Neighborhood social work is not a magic bullet, but my colleagues and I see it as a promising approach to address the most common challenges that neighborhoods with high rates of homelessness face.

East Atlanta Village is currently working with the Atlanta City Council to renew funding for this program, which cost US$100,000 in its initial year. We hope that other neighborhoods also consider this strategy when deciding how to address homelessness in their own areas.

The Conversation

Ishita Chordia is affiliated with the East Atlanta Neighborhood Association. She volunteers for the neighborhood association and has helped organize and evaluate the neighborhood social work program.

ref. This Atlanta neighborhood hired a case manager to address rising homelessness − and it’s improving health and safety for everyone – https://theconversation.com/this-atlanta-neighborhood-hired-a-case-manager-to-address-rising-homelessness-and-its-improving-health-and-safety-for-everyone-236466

Kanak leader Christian Tein’s jailing in France overturned in new legal twist

Asia Pacific Report

France’s Supreme Court has overturned a judgment imprisoning pretrial in mainland France Kanak pro-independence leader Christian Tein, who is widely regarded as a political prisoner, reports Libération.

Tein, who is head of the CCAT (Field Action Coordination Unit) in New Caledonia was in August elected president of the main pro-independence umbrella group Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS).

He has been accused by the French authorities of “masterminding” the violence that spread across New Caledonia in May.

The deadly unrest is estimated to have caused €2.2 billion (NZ$3.6 billion) in infrastructural damage, resulting in the destruction of nearly 800 businesses and about 20,000 job losses.

In this new legal twist, the jailing in mainland France of Tein and another activist, Steve Unë, was ruled “invalid” by the court.

“On Tuesday, October 22, the Court of Cassation in Paris overturned the July 5 ruling of the investigating chamber of the Noumea Court of Appeal, which had confirmed his detention in mainland France,” reports NC la 1ère TV.

“The Kanak independence activist, imprisoned in Mulhouse since June, will soon have to appear before a judge again who will decide his fate,” the report said.

Kanak activists’ cases reviewed
The court examined the appeal of five Kanak pro-independence activists — including Tein – who had challenged their detention in mainland France on suspicion of having played a role in the unrest in New Caledonia, reports RFI News.

This appeal considered in particular “the decision by the judges in Nouméa to exile the defendants without any adversarial debate, and the conditions under which the transfer was carried out,” according to civil rights attorney François Roux, one of the defendants’ lawyers.

“Many of them are fathers, cut off from their children,” the lawyer said.

The transfer of five activists to mainland France at the end of June was organised overnight using a specially chartered plane, according to Nouméa public prosecutor Yves Dupas, who has argued that it was necessary to continue the investigations “in a calm manner”.

Roux has denounced the “inhumane conditions” in which they were transported.

“They were strapped to their seats and handcuffed throughout the transfer, even to go to the toilet, and they were forbidden to speak,” he said.

Left-wing politicians in France have also slammed the conditions of detainees, who they underline were deported more than 17,000 km from their home for resisting “colonial oppression”.

Another legal twist over arrested Kanaks . . . Christian Tein wins Supreme Court appeal. Image: APR screenshot Libération

Total of seven accused
A total of seven activists from the CCAT separatist coalition are accused by the French government of orchestrating deadly riots earlier this year and are currently incarcerated – the five in various prisons in France and two in New Caledonia itself.

They are under investigation for, among other things, complicity in attempted murder, organised gang theft with a weapon, organised gang destruction of another person’s property by a means dangerous to people and participation in a criminal association with a view to planning a crime.

Two CCAT activists who were initially imprisoned have since been placed under house arrest in mainland France.

Tein, born in 1968, has consistently denied having incited violence, claiming to be a political prisoner.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Prabowo’s presidency sparks fear and faint hope in Indonesia’s contested Papua

By Victor Mambor in Jayapura

With Prabowo Subianto, a controversial former general installed as Indonesia’s new president, residents in the disputed Papua region were responding to this reality with anxiety and, for some, cautious optimism.

The remote and resource-rich region has long been a flashpoint for conflict, with its people enduring decades of alleged military abuse and human rights violations under Indonesian rule and many demanding independence.

With Prabowo now in charge, many Papuans fear that their future will be marked by further violence and repression.

In Papua — a region known as “West Papua” in the Pacific — views on Prabowo, whose military record is both celebrated by nationalists and condemned by human rights activists, range from apathy to outright alarm.

Many Papuans remain haunted by past abuses, particularly those associated with Indonesia’s counterinsurgency campaigns that began after Papua was incorporated into Indonesia in 1969 through a disputed UN-backed referendum.

For people like Maurids Yansip, a private sector employee in Sentani, Prabowo’s rise to the presidency is a cause for serious concern.

“I am worried,” Yansip said. “Prabowo talked about using a military approach to address Papua’s issues during the presidential debates.

‘Military worsened hunman rights’
“We’ve seen how the military presence has worsened the human rights situation in this region. That’s not going to solve anything — it will only lead to more violations.”

In Jayapura, the region’s capital, Musa Heselo, a mechanic at a local garage, expressed indifference toward the political changes unfolding in Jakarta.

“I didn’t vote in the last election—whether for the president or the legislature,” Heselo said.

“Whoever becomes president is not important to me, as long as Papua remains safe so we can make a living. I don’t know much about Prabowo’s background.”

But such nonchalance is rare in a region where memories of military crackdowns run deep.

Prabowo, a former son-in-law of Indonesia’s late dictator Suharto, has long been a polarising figure. His career, marked by accusations of human rights abuses, particularly during Indonesia’s occupation of Timor-Leste, continues to evoke strong reactions.

In 1996, during his tenure with the elite Indonesian Army special forces unit, Kopassus, Prabowo commanded a high-stakes rescue of 11 hostages from a scientific research team held by Free Papua Movement (OPM) fighters.

Deadly operation
The operation was deadly, resulting in the deaths of two hostages and eight pro-independence fighters.

Markus Haluk, executive secretary of the United Liberation Movement for West Papua (ULMWP), described Prabowo’s presidency as a grim continuation of what he calls a “slow-motion genocide” of the Papuan people.

“Prabowo’s leadership will extend Indonesia’s occupation of Papua,” Haluk said, his tone resolute.

“The genocide, ethnocide, and ecocide will continue. We remember our painful history — this won’t be forgotten. We could see military operations return. This will make things worse.”

Although he has never been convicted and denies any involvement in abuses in East Timor or Papua, these allegations continue to cast a shadow over his political rise.

He ran for president in 2014 and again in 2019, both times unsuccessfully. His most recent victory, which finally propels him to Indonesia’s highest office, has raised questions about the future of Papua.

President Prabowo Subianto greets people as he rides in a car after his inauguration in Jakarta, Indonesia, last Sunday. Image: Asprilla Dwi Adha/Antara Foto

Despite these concerns, some see Prabowo’s presidency as a potential turning point — albeit a fraught one. Elvira Rumkabu, a lecturer at Cendrawasih University in Jayapura, is among those who view his military background as a possible double-edged sword.

Prabowo’s military experience ‘may help’
“Prabowo’s military experience and strategic thinking could help control the military in Papua and perhaps even manage the ultranationalist forces in Jakarta that oppose peace,” Rumkabu told BenarNews.

“But I also worry that he might delegate important issues, like the peace agenda in Papua, to his vice-president.”

Under outgoing President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, Papua’s development was often portrayed as a priority, but the reality on the ground told a different story. While Jokowi made high-profile visits to the region, his administration’s reliance on military operations to suppress pro-independence movements continued.

“This was a pattern we saw under Jokowi, where Papua’s problems were relegated to lower levels, diminishing their urgency,” Rumkabu said.

In recent years, clashes between Indonesian security forces and the West Papua National Liberation Army (TPNPB) have escalated, with civilians frequently caught in the crossfire.

Yohanes Mambrasar, a human rights activist based in Sorong, expressed grave concerns about the future under Prabowo.

“Prabowo’s stance on strengthening the military in Papua was clear during his campaign,” Mambrasar said.

Called for ‘more troops, weapons’
“He called for more troops and more weapons. This signals a continuation of militarized policies, and with it, the risk of more land grabs and violence against indigenous Papuans.”

Earlier this month, Indonesian military chief Gen. Agus Subiyanto inaugurated five new infantry battalions in Papua, stating that their mandate was to support both security operations and regional development initiatives.

Indeed, the memory of past military abuses looms large for many in Papua, where calls for independence have never abated.

During a presidential debate, Prabowo vowed to strengthen security forces in Papua.

“If elected, my priority will be to uphold the rule of law and reinforce our security presence,” he said, framing his approach as essential to safeguarding the local population.

Yet, amid the fears, some see opportunities for positive change.

Yohanes Kedang from the Archdiocese of Merauke said that improving the socio-economic conditions of indigenous Papuans must be a priority for Prabowo.

Education, health care ‘left behind’
“Education, healthcare, and the economy — these are areas where Papuans are still far behind,” he said.

“This will be Prabowo’s real challenge. He needs to create policies that bring real improvements to the lives of indigenous Papuans, especially in the southern regions like Merauke, which has immense potential.”

Theo Hesegem, executive director of the Papua Justice and Human Integrity Foundation, believes that dialogue is key to resolving the region’s long-standing issues.

“Prabowo has the power to address the human rights violations in Papua,” Hesegem said.

“But he needs to listen. He should come to Papua and sit down with the people here — not just with officials, but with civil society, with the people on the ground,” he added.

“Jokowi failed to do that. If Prabowo wants to lead, he must listen to their voices.”

Pizaro Gozali Idrus in Jakarta contributed to the report. Copyright © 2015-2024, BenarNews. Republished with the permission of BenarNews.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Politics with Michelle Grattan: Sally McManus on what unions want from Labor and Innes Willox on business wish list for Dutton

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Industrial relations will be hotly contested at next year’s election.

Labor has introduced a raft of new worker protections and pushed for wage increases for lower paid workers.
Business groups have argued against further red tape and claimed the government’s new regulations have contributed to rising costs.

The union movement, meanwhile, has been mired in the fallout from the CFMEU controversy, with some union leaders angry over the government and ACTU’s tough treatment of that union after revelations of its infiltration by criminals.

To talk about these issues and more, we’re joined by ACTU secretary Sally McManus and Innes Willox, the head of the Australian Industry Group, one of the peak employer groups.

On how to fix the construction industry, Willox advocates an oversight body but not the reintroduction of the Australian Building and Construction Commission,

We believe that the construction sector does require its own oversight. We had the ABCC previously. We’re not saying go back to that. You don’t have to replicate that model entirely. But the sector has shown that it does require an oversight body that has the ability to launch both civil and criminal claims for poor behaviour. You’re not going to clean it up through sort of task forces and the like, which actually don’t do anything on the ground to change and moderate behaviour.

What other changes to industrial relations would employers want from a Coalition government?

I think what we can expect or hope that the Coalition will look long and hard at things like the right to disconnect. Which came from nowhere. It came out of left field right at the end of a process. It’s created huge uncertainty in workplaces. It’s a bit of a minefield both for employers and employees.

The definition of’casual’ is now a 17-page manual that employers have to work through, rather than a straightforward definition. We’d hope that the Coalition would look at that. And, of course, union right-of-entry powers which have now tilted the balance totally in favour of unions. They’re the sort of things we think that they should look at as a priority and examine what they can do to take off the rough edges that have been put in place there.

On the unions’ wish list from Labor, McManus says they are talking with the government about further action on the issue of equality.

At the moment, the gender pay gap is at the lowest ever recorded. So that’s a good thing. But in terms of equality in the workplace, that issue is still a big one, and there is a big push that we are making for reproductive leave. This isn’t just for women, it’s also for men.

So many women suffer from things like painful periods. Of course, there’s a whole issue of menopause.

For men, there’s a whole lot of issues to do with reproductive issues as well. […] So this is something that we are talking to the government about and campaigning around.

Another issue is that of youth wages:

It’s really totally outrageous that 19, 20-year-olds are paid discount wages in Australia. It’s not acceptable in 2024-2025 and should be fixed. The union movement’s taking it up at the moment and have got rid of it in a lot of industries, and we want to finish the job. So we’re going to try and achieve that through campaigning and through the industrial commission. But if we don’t, if there’s no way of fixing it that way, there’ll be no option then other than to say to the government, listen, ball’s in your court now.

On the split in the union movement over the government and ACTU actions against the construction division of the CFMEU, McManus says the ACTU will continue to keep its door open,

Look, no one likes what’s happened. No one likes the fact that, obviously, that union was infiltrated by organised crime, outlaw motorcycle gangs. And no one supports corruption. The other construction union who works with the CFMEU all the time, which is the ETU, the Electrical Trades Union – they’re the ones who have disaffiliated from the ACTU.

They’re mates, they’re all mates, right? And so, obviously, they’re also not happy with what’s happened. And obviously we will always keep the door open and encourage unity. The ACTU is a place where truck drivers and community workers and teachers and nurses and road workers, everyone of every profession, gets together and talks. It’s always a good thing because you’re listening to other people and you’re stronger together.

The Conversation

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Sally McManus on what unions want from Labor and Innes Willox on business wish list for Dutton – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-sally-mcmanus-on-what-unions-want-from-labor-and-innes-willox-on-business-wish-list-for-dutton-242019

NZ’s third-largest city sanctions Israel over illegal Palestine settlements

Asia Pacific Report

Christchurch, New Zealand’s third-largest city, today became the first local government in the country to sanction Israel by voting to halt business with organisations involved in illegal settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories.

It passed a resolution to amend its procurement policy to exclude companies building and maintaining illegal Israeli settlements on Palestinian land.

It was a largely symbolic gesture in that Christchurch (pop. 408,000) currently has no business dealings with any of the companies listed by the United Nations as being active in the illegal settlements.

However, the vote also rules out any future business dealings by the city council with such companies.

The sanctions vote came after passionate pleas to the council by John Minto, president of the Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa (PSNA), and University of Canterbury postcolonial studies lecturer Dr Josephine Varghese.

“We’re delighted the council has taken a stand against Israel’s ongoing theft of Palestinian land,” said Minto in a statement welcoming the vote.

He had urged the council to take a stand against companies identified by the UN Human Rights Council as complicit in the construction and maintenance of the illegal settlements.

‘Failure of Western governments’
“It has been the failure of Western governments to hold Israel to account which means Israel has a 76-year history of oppression and brutal abuse of Palestinians.

“Today Israel is running riot across the Middle East because it has never been held to account for 76 years of flagrant breaches of international law,” Minto said.

“The motion passed by Christchurch City today helps to end Israeli impunity for war crimes.” (Building settlements on occupied land belonging to others is a war crime under international law)

“The motion is a small but significant step in sanctioning Israel. Many more steps must follow”.

The council’s vote to support the UN policy was met with cheers from a packed public gallery. Before the vote, gallery members displayed a “Stop the genocide” banner.

Minto described the decision as a significant step towards aligning with international law and supporting Palestinian rights.

“In relation to the council adopting a policy lined up with the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2334, this resolution was co-sponsored by the New Zealand government back in 2016,” Minto said, referencing the UN resolution that Israeli settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories “had no legal validity and constituted a flagrant violation under international law”.

‘Red herrings and obfuscations’
In his statement, Minto said: “We are particularly pleased the council rejected the red herrings and obfuscations of New Zealand Jewish Council spokesperson Ben Kepes who urged councillors to reject the motion”

“Mr Kepes presentation was a repetition of the tired, old arguments used by white South Africans to avoid accountability for their apartheid policies last century – policies which are mirrored in Israel today.”

Postcolonial studies lecturer Dr Josephine Varghese . . . boycotts “a long standing peaceful means of protest adopted by freedom fighters across the world.” Image: UOC

Dr Varghese said more than 42,000 Palestininians — at least 15,000 of them children — had been killed in Israel’s war on Gaza.

“Boycotting products and services which support and benefit from colonisation and apartheid is the long standing peaceful means of protest adopted by freedom fighters across the world, not only by black South Africans against apartheid, but also in the Indian independent struggle By the lights of Gandhi,” she said.

“This is a rare opportunity for us to follow in the footsteps of these greats and make a historic move, not only for Christchurch City, but also for Aotearoa New Zealand.

“On March 15, 2019 [the date of NZ’s mosque massacre killing 51 people], we made headlines for all the wrong reasons, and today could be an opportunity where we make headlines global globally for the right reasons,” Dr Varghese said.

“Sanctions on Israel” supporters at the Christchurch City Council for the vote today. Image: PSNA

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Australia’s points system for jobseekers is failing 4 in 10, putting their payments at risk

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Simone Casey, Research Associate, Centre for People, Organisation and Work, RMIT University

Studio63/Shutterstock

For jobseekers these days, staying on benefits is about accumulating points.

It used to be cruder. Until 2022, unemployed Australians who wanted to stay on benefits had to apply for up to 20 jobs per month, a requirement a parliamentary inquiry found

burdens employers, who are receiving masses of poor quality applications often from people who are not suited for the position.

Since July 2022, jobseekers have instead been required to collect points.

Creating or updating a profile earns five points, applying for a job earns five points, attending a job interview earns 25 points, attending a jobs expo earns 25 points, starting a job earns 50 points, and so on.

For most jobseekers the target is 100 points per month. The target can be eased by 20 points for jobseekers who live in locations that have fewer opportunities to work and by 40 points for jobseekers who are carers, have a reduced capacity to work or who are over 55.

Jobseekers who fail to report enough points or who fail to include four job applications per month in total face automatic suspension of benefits.

Workforce Australia.

41% of jobseekers are being failed

New data released by the Department of Employment and Workplace Relations show 41.1% of participants are being tripped up by the system.

In the quarter between April 1 and June 30, 410,485 of the 999,470 jobseekers enrolled in the scheme failed to meet its requirements. And 212,915 of them reported no points whatsoever.

It’s an improvement on the previous year. For April to June 2023, 45.3% of participants failed to get enough points.

First Nations people, refugees, people with disabilities and young people are over-represented among those who fail to get enough points.

My calculations using the department’s data show 58% of Indigenous participants in the program, 49% of participants without a Year 12 education and 47% of participants on youth allowance are failing to meet the requirements.



Around two-thirds of breaches lead to suspensions. Between July 2022 and September 2023 1,838,410 payments were suspended.

My research just published in the Australian Journal of Social Issues finds that a shift away from face-to-face help to online interactions is partly responsible.

When jobseekers find it difficult to talk to humans about why they are unable to accumulate points their payments are more likely to be suspended.

Jobseekers’ fault or the system’s fault?

The Department of Employment has been working hard to increase understanding of the points system. Among other things, it has produced a series of fact sheets aimed at First Nations Australians.

But an independent evaluation of the system prepared for the department in June found two-thirds of the participants in it had little or no knowledge about how it worked.

This suggests the 41% failure rate might be an indictment of the system as much as the jobseekers who use it.

It might even be an indictment of the idea of points to quantify compliance with mutual obligations.

In November last year, a Senate select committee recommended rebuilding what it called a Commonwealth Employment Services System from the ground up.

While the committee supported the use of points, it wanted the default requirement halved to 50 points, with human case managers given discretion to vary the target up or down based on their professional judgments.

The Conversation

Simone Casey is employed as a policy advisor at Economic Justice Australia, the peak organisation for community legal centres providing specialist advice to people on their social security issues and rights. The research and analysis for this article was completed in her academic capacity as recently published in the Australian Journal of Social Issues.

ref. Australia’s points system for jobseekers is failing 4 in 10, putting their payments at risk – https://theconversation.com/australias-points-system-for-jobseekers-is-failing-4-in-10-putting-their-payments-at-risk-240317

Majority of NZ researchers see Māori Indigenous knowledge as relevant to their work – but there is a gender divide

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katharina Ruckstuhl, Associate Professor in Indigenous Economy, University of Otago

Getty Images

While the New Zealand government plans to review 28 pieces of legislation with a view to changing or repealing references to the Treaty of Waitangi, the science sector is embracing engagement with Māori and leading the way in linking science and Indigenous knowledge at a national scale.

We surveyed 316 researchers from research organisations across New Zealand on their engagement with Māori and their attitudes towards mātauranga Māori (Indigenous knowledge system). We found the majority agree engagement is important and mātauranga Māori is relevant to their research.

Our preliminary findings show most of the surveyed researchers engaged with Māori to some degree in the past and expect to keep doing so in the future. A majority agreed mātauranga Māori should be valued on par with Western science.

New Zealand is not alone in seeing Indigenous knowledge as complementary. Over the past few decades, several international projects engaged Indigenous knowledge systems to help solve pressing local and global problems. This includes traditional Aboriginal burning the reduces the risk of wildfires and sustainable water management.

But New Zealand has been at the forefront of developing a nationwide approach through the 2007 Vision Mātauranga policy. This science-mātauranga connection has given New Zealand a global lead in how to meaningfully and practically mobilise science and Indigenous knowledge at a national scale.

In contrast, the US only recently developed its national Indigenous science policy.

Merging knowledge systems

The merging of Indigenous and Western knowledge is particularly important in the high-tech innovation field. Here, New Zealand’s approach is starting to have real impacts, including supporting innovations and capabilities that would not have happened otherwise.

Through years of engagement with the research and innovation sector, Māori are increasingly expecting the sector to work differently. This means both engaging beyond the laboratory and being open to the possibility that science and mātauranga Māori together can create bold innovation. Examples include supporting Māori businesses to create research and development opportunities in high-value nutrition, or using mātauranga to halt the decline of green-lipped mussels in the Eastern Bay of Plenty.

Green lipped mussels on a rock against a wet sand background.
Mātauranga Māori has been key to restoring green-lipped mussels at Ōhiwa Harbour in the Eastern Bay of Plenty.
Getty Images

Some media reports give the impression of a divided research community when it comes to mātauranga Māori. There have also been anecdotal reports suggesting scientists feel “pressured” to include “irrelevant” mātauranga Māori in science applications to win funding.

We questioned whether this divide was real and as widespread as was being reported. We investigated how non-Māori researchers view engagement and collaboration, in particular the role of mātauranga Māori within that engagement.

We examined the responses of the 295 non-Māori scientists in our survey and found 56% agreed mātauranga Māori should be valued on par with Western science. Only 25% disagreed. Moreover, 83% agreed scientists had a duty to consult with Māori if the research had impacts on them.

However, there was a significant gender difference: 75% of women compared to 44% of men agreed mātauranga Māori should be valued on par with science. Only 8% of women disagreed with that statement compared to 34% of men.

Gender differences

As social scientists researching New Zealand’s innovation system, these results quantified our earlier observations in two important respects.

First, it seems that exposing researchers to engagement with Māori communities may create a more open attitude to mātauranga Māori. A key aspect of the past few years has been to broaden the science sector’s engagement with various communities, including Māori.

The Vision Mātauranga policy has been explicit about this in the innovation sector and research and development areas. It appears likely this approach has, at least for some non-Māori researchers, created an openness to consider mātauranga Māori as an equivalent, although different, knowledge framework.

This policy push and Māori community pull has seen scientists in this survey overwhelmingly agree that Māori should be consulted about the impacts research may have on their communities.

Second, while we disagree with the anecdotal evidence that the science community as a whole is split when it comes to mātauranga and engagement with Māori, our results suggest there is a difference between genders. Women researchers in this survey are very positive when it comes to valuing mātauranga Māori, whereas men are relatively less so. We need to study this more deeply to find out why this might be the case.

Shifts in how researchers work

New Zealand’s science, research and innovation sector is in the middle of a structural transition with reviews of its priorities, policy, funding and organisational arrangements.

While central government re-arrangements can happen relatively quickly, the interface between the laboratory, community and industry can take years to adjust. Embedding new practices is complex and not easily done.

The 2007 Vision Mātauranga policy was initially slow, uneven and bumpy in its implementation. But our results suggest its impact has accelerated over the past few years. This includes recognising that working alongside different knowledge systems is valuable for innovation.

Whatever New Zealand’s current restructure of the science sector prioritises, the way researchers work has changed. New Zealand is now at the forefront of global shifts when it comes to links between Indigenous knowledge and science.

Anecdotes aside, accelerating the engagement between Māori and the science sector will be key to delivering the impact Māori and wider New Zealand expect.

The Conversation

Katharina Ruckstuhl received funding from Science for Technological Innovation, National Science Challenge.

Madeline Judge received funding from Science for Technological Innovation, National Science Challenge.

Urs Daellenbach received funding from Science for Technological Innovation, National Science Challenge.

ref. Majority of NZ researchers see Māori Indigenous knowledge as relevant to their work – but there is a gender divide – https://theconversation.com/majority-of-nz-researchers-see-maori-indigenous-knowledge-as-relevant-to-their-work-but-there-is-a-gender-divide-241239

LNP lead reduced as Queensland election approaches; US election remains very close

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The Queensland state election is this Saturday, with polls closing at 7pm AEDT. There are 93 single-member seats, with Queensland having no upper house. At the 2020 election, Labor won 52 of the 93 seats, the Liberal National Party (LNP) 34 and all others seven. Labor won the two-party statewide vote by an estimated 53.2–46.8.

There have been two recently released Queensland polls, with both showing a reduction in the LNP lead from landslide margins the last time the same polls were released. However, the LNP is still very likely to win on Saturday.

A YouGov poll for The Courier Mail, conducted October 10–16 from a sample of 1,503, gave the LNP a 54.5–45.5 lead, a 2.5-point gain for Labor since the previous YouGov poll in July. Primary votes were 41% LNP (down two), 31% Labor (up five), 11% Greens (down three), 11% One Nation (down two) and 6% for all Others (up two).

Labor premier Steven Miles had a net approval of -10, up three points, with 44% dissatisfied and 34% satisfied. LNP leader David Crisafulli’s net approval slumped 11 points to +6. Crisafulli led Miles by 37–36 as better premier, down from a 40–29 lead in July.

A Resolve poll for The Brisbane Times, conducted October 14–19 from a sample of 1,003, gave the LNP a 53–47 lead by respondent preferences and a 52–48 lead by 2020 election preference flows. This is the first time Resolve has given a two-party result for its Queensland polls.

Primary votes were 40% LNP (down four since the previous Resolve poll that was conducted over four months from June to September), 32% Labor (up nine), 11% Greens (down one), 9% One Nation (up one), 2% independents (down seven) and 5% others (up one).

In its previous polls, Resolve asked all respondents if they would vote for independents. In this poll that was taken after nominations closed, they only asked for independents where independents were standing, so the independent vote crashed.

Crisafulli led Miles by 39–37 as preferred premier (40–27 in September). Miles had a +8 net approval (47% good, 38% poor), while Crisafulli was at net +7 approval. On issues, the LNP led Labor by 22 points on crime, with the two parties were within two points on cost of living, housing and health.

The key reasons why Labor is likely to be defeated are an “it’s time” factor as Labor has governed since winning the January 2015 election, the federal Labor government tending to hurt state Labor parties and Queensland easily being the most pro-Coalition state at the 2022 federal election.

At that election, Queensland was the only state where the Coalition won the two-party vote (by 54.1–45.9). The second best state for the Coalition was New South Wales, where Labor won the two-party vote by 51.4–48.6.

US election still very close, but Harris’ national lead drops

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.8–47.2, a gain for Trump since Sunday, when Harris led by 49.1–46.8. Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9.

The US president isn’t elected by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives electoral votes equal to its federal House seats (population based) and senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes as winner-takes-all, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).

Relative to the national popular vote, the Electoral College is biased to Trump, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win to be the narrow Electoral College favourite in Silver’s model.

In Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), there’s now a 48.0–48.0 tie in Silver’s poll averages. Harris remains barely ahead in Michigan (15 electoral votes) by 0.5 points, Wisconsin (ten) by 0.7 and Nevada (six) by 0.4. But without Pennsylvania, Harris leads in states
worth 257 electoral votes and Trump in states worth 262, down from a 276–262 Harris lead on Sunday.

On the current numbers, whoever wins Pennsylvania would win the presidency. Trump leads in North Carolina (16 electoral votes) by one point, Georgia (16) by 1.5 and Arizona (11) by two.

Silver’s model now gives Trump a 53% chance to win the Electoral College, up from 51% on Sunday, but the race remains very close to a 50–50 chance for either candidate. There’s a 27% chance Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College. The FiveThirtyEight forecast gives Trump a 51% win probability.

While the polls have trended to Trump recently, that doesn’t mean he will continue to gain. There are still two weeks before the election, and either candidate could win decisively if there’s late movement or poll error in their favour.

With the seven swing states currently all within two points, the two most likely outcomes are for either Trump or Harris to sweep all seven swing states. A Trump sweep occurs 24% of the time and a Harris sweep 15% of the time.

Silver has a list of 24 reasons why Trump could win. I think the most important reasons are the economy and the Electoral College bias. These reasons may explain Trump’s recent poll gains.

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. LNP lead reduced as Queensland election approaches; US election remains very close – https://theconversation.com/lnp-lead-reduced-as-queensland-election-approaches-us-election-remains-very-close-241683

New Prada-designed spacesuit is a small step for astronaut style, but could be a giant leap for sustainable fashion

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alyssa Choat, Lecturer in Fashion and Textiles Design, University of Technology Sydney

For its recent Spring/Summer 2025 show, fashion brand Diesel filled a runway with mounds of denim offcuts, making a spectacle of its efforts to reduce waste.

Haunting yet poetic, the “forgotten” byproducts of fashion production were reclaimed and repurposed into something artful. But the irony isn’t lost, given fashion shows like this one demand significant resources.

Diesel’s event is an example of a growing trend towards the “spectacle of sustainability”, wherein performative displays are prioritised over the deeper, structural changes needed to address environmental issues.

Can the fashion industry reconcile its tendency towards spectacle with its environmental responsibilities? The recent spacesuit collaboration between Prada and Axiom Space is one refreshing example of how it can, by leaning into innovation that seeks to advance fashion technology and rewrite fashion norms.

Performance art instead of substantive change

The fashion industry has always relied on some form of spectacle to continue the fashion cycle. Fashion shows mix art, performance and design to create powerful experiences that will grab people’s attention and set the tone for what’s “in”. Promotional material from these shows is shared widely, helping cement new trends.

However, the spectacle of fashion isn’t helpful for communicating the complexity of sustainability. Fashion events tend to focus on surface-level ideas, while ignoring deeper systemic problems such as the popularity of fast fashion, people’s buying habits, and working conditions in garment factories. These problems are connected, so addressing one requires addressing the others.

It’s much easier to host a flashy event that inevitably feeds the problem it purports to fix. International fashion events have a large carbon footprint. This is partly due to how many people they move around the world, as well as their promotion of consumption (whereas sustainability requires buying less).

The pandemic helped deliver some solutions to this problem by forcing fashion shows to go digital. Brands such as Balenciaga, the Congolese brand Hanifa and many more took part in virtual fashion shows with animated avatars – and many pointed to this as a possible solution to the industry’s sustainability issue.

But the industry has now largely returned to live fashion shows. Virtual presentations have been relegated to their own sectors within fashion communication, while live events take centre stage.

Many brands, including Prada, held fashion shows without guests during lockdowns in 2021.

Towards a sustainable fashion future

Technology and innovation clearly have a role to play in helping make fashion more sustainable. The recent Prada-Axiom spacesuit collaboration brings this into focus in a new way.

The AxEMU (Axiom Extravehicular Mobility Unit) suits will be worn by Artemis III crew members during NASA’s planned 2026 mission to the Moon. The suits have been made using long-lasting and high-performance materials that are designed to withstand the extreme conditions of space.

By joining this collaboration, Prada, known for its high fashion, is shifting into a highly symbolic arena of technological advancement. This will likely help position it at the forefront of sustainability and technology discussions – at least in the minds of consumers.

Prada itself has varying levels of compliance when it comes to meeting sustainability goals. The Standard Ethics Ratings has listed it as “sustainable”, while sustainability scoring site Good on You rated it as “not good enough” – citing a need for improved transparency and better hazardous chemical use.

Recently, the brand has been working on making recycled textiles such as nylon fabrics (nylon is a part of the brand DNA) from fishing nets and plastic bottles. It also launched a high-fashion jewellery line made of recycled gold.

Innovating for a changing world

Prada’s partnership with Axiom signifies a milestone in fashion’s ability to impact on high-tech industries. Beyond boosting Prada’s image, such innovations can also lead to more sustainable fashions.

For instance, advanced materials created for spacesuits could eventually be adapted into everyday heat-resistant clothing. This will become increasingly important in the context of climate change, especially in regions already struggling with drought and heatwaves. The IPCC warns that if global temperatures rise by 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, twice as many mega-cities are likely to become heat-stressed.

New innovations are trying to help consumers stay cool despite rising temperatures. Nike’s Aerogami is a performance apparel technology that supposedly increases breathability. Researchers from MIT have also designed garment vents that open and close when they sense sweat to create airflow.

Similarly, researchers from Zhengzhou University and the University of South Australia have created a fabric that reflects sunlight and releases heat to help reduce body temperatures. These kinds of cooling textiles (which could also be used in architecture) could help reduce the need for air conditioning.

One future challenge lies in driving demand for these innovations by making them seem fashionable and “cool”. Collaborations like the one between Prada and Axiom are helpful on this front. A space suit – an item typically seen as a functional, long-lasting piece of engineering – becomes something more with Prada’s name on it.

The collaboration also points to a broader potential for brands to use large attention-grabbing projects to convey their sustainability credentials. In this way they can combine spectacle with sustainability. The key will be in making sure one doesn’t come at the expense of the other.

Alyssa Choat does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. New Prada-designed spacesuit is a small step for astronaut style, but could be a giant leap for sustainable fashion – https://theconversation.com/new-prada-designed-spacesuit-is-a-small-step-for-astronaut-style-but-could-be-a-giant-leap-for-sustainable-fashion-240551

Should a big tech tax fund news? A new report reopens debate on platforms and media

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rod Sims, Professor in the practice of public policy and antitrust, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

Meta’s announcement nearly eight months ago that it would no longer do commercial deals under the News Media Bargaining Code has led to much speculation as to how the government would respond.

The code became law in 2021. Facing the threat of designation under it – which would involve further legal obligations platforms may wish to avoid – both Google and Facebook (now Meta) did deals with news media businesses worth up to A$250 million per year.

Google did deals with essentially all qualifying news media business, large and small – the criteria largely being that their journalists provide news. Facebook did deals with news businesses likely employing up to 85% of Australian journalists

With little response from the government so far, a new report from a federal parliamentary committee investigating the impact of social media on Australian society provides welcome focus on this issue.

Key recommendations

The committee makes 11 recommendations, three of which in particular are worth focusing on.

Recommendation two says the Australian government should explore alternative revenue mechanisms to supplement the code, such as a digital platform levy. But it also says “exploration should include consideration for preserving current and future commercial deals”, presumably under the code.

Recommendation three says the Australian government should develop an appropriate mechanism to guide the fair and transparent distribution of revenue arising from any new revenue mechanisms. In particular, this would support the:

sustainability of small, independent and digital only publishers, as well as those operating in underserved communities and rural, regional and remote areas.

Recommendation six says the Australian government “should investigate the viability and effectiveness of ‘must carry’ requirements for digital platforms in relation to Australian news content”.

Coalition members provided a different perspective on some of the committee’s recommendations. They expressed concern about the lack of action from the government in response to Meta’s decision to not do more deals under the code. Further, they read the report as saying that the code is “no longer fit for purpose” – a view they strongly disagree with.

Meta has also heavily criticised the committee, saying it has ignored:

the realities of how our platforms work, the preferences of the people who use them, and the value we provide news publishers who choose to post their content on our platforms.

Meta AI logo on smartphone with Meta apps in background.
Meta, parent company of Instagram and Facebook, is strongly opposed to paying a levy to fund news media.
QubixStudio/Shutterstock

Not so simple

The committee’s recommendations raise many questions.

First, how would the levy sit with wanting to maintain existing and future deals under the code? In any solution to dealing with Meta it would seem silly to damage the current arrangements with Google, which has committed to continue supporting news organisations under the code, and who are paying the majority of the up to $250 million per year?

Second, biasing any revenue to smaller and/or rural and regional publishers may mean that, despite most news stories coming from the larger media companies, they would not benefit in accordance with their content being used. The code did see benefit to large, medium and small media businesses. But, of course, the larger companies gained most money as they provided most content.

Some smaller media businesses did miss out on funding. But it was often judged that they do not provide news journalism, which was what the code is seeking to promote.

In 2018, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (of which I was then chair) made a number of recommendations to the government. These included the code. They also included government funding for journalism in underserved areas and support for other objectives, such as boosting smaller news media companies. A different objective requiring a different policy instrument.

Third, the problem that arose with Meta’s decision to not do further deals under the code saw many calls for Meta to be designated under the code. This would have meant they would be forced to do deals and potentially face arbitration if the news media businesses were not happy with the outcome.

As the parliamentary committee would be aware, when Canada largely copied the code, it automatically designated Meta. In response, Meta took all news and links to news off its platform. This allows Meta to escape the Canadian version of the code as it only applies to platforms that carry news.

One solution to this is to insist the tech platforms “must carry” news, as suggested in recommendation six. Then they would be back under the code and could be successfully designated and forced to negotiate. It is unclear in the report whether the “must carry” idea, which would make the code relevant to all platforms, is an alternative to the levy.

A way through

Overall, the report provides welcome renewed focus on this topic. By recommending the government “explore” a levy or “investigate” must carry obligations, the committee appears to recognise the potential difficulties with these options.

Would there be international trade implications from a levy? How would money from a levy be distributed? It is one thing to have a fund to help small players in underserved markets; quite another for the government to be distributing money to large media players.

And how would the “must carry” provision be enforced given that carrying content may not be the same as users discovering it?

But there may be a way through these problems. Allow Google to continue as they are under the code, look at what other platforms need to be covered by the code, and threaten that if Meta or another platform were to take news off their site, then a levy or a must carry provision would be introduced. In the case of Meta, such threats, which must be real, could see them revert to doing deals under the code.

To help new and emerging news journalism, particularly in underserved areas, this would seem to require government funding, as the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission recommended all the way back in 2018.

The Conversation

Rod Sims is a former chair of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission.

ref. Should a big tech tax fund news? A new report reopens debate on platforms and media – https://theconversation.com/should-a-big-tech-tax-fund-news-a-new-report-reopens-debate-on-platforms-and-media-241897

Israel’s actions in Gaza, backed by the US, are shaking the world order to its core

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tristan Dunning, Sessional Academic, School of Social Sciences, Macquarie University

While the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar could have provided an off-ramp for the conflict in Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ongoing vows of “total victory” make this seem unlikely.

The concept of “total victory”, however, is extremely problematic. Every time Israel declares an area cleared of Hamas and then withdraws, Hamas, which carried out the horrific attack on southern Israel on October 7 2023, has quickly returned to reestablish control.

As a result, there has been a marked Israeli escalation in northern Gaza in recent days, and much discussion about a so-called “general’s plan” being pushed by some right-wing members of Netanyahu’s government.

Concocted by a former Israeli general, Giora Eiland, the plan is, in essence, to forego negotiations, bisect the enclave and give northern Gaza’s 400,000 inhabitants the bleak choice between leaving and dying.

We don’t know whether Netanyahu will officially endorse the plan. Israeli leaders reportedly told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken this week they are not implementing it. However, it nonetheless has broad support among Israel’s political and military elite.

The Israeli military has already issued expulsion orders to the people of northern Gaza. The government has said anyone who remains would be considered a military target and will be deprived of food and water.

While Israel denies obstructing humanitarian aid, the World Food Program said no food aid entered northern Gaza for two weeks in early October. While some aid has been entering since then, thousands are still at risk of starvation and outbreaks of preventable diseases.

Moreover, many Palestinians, including the sick, elderly and wounded, are unable to move and have nowhere to go. The prospect of the overcrowded and unprotected tent cities of the south is hardly enticing.

Israeli human rights groups say the military had been deliberately blocking aid to give the population no choice but to leave northern Gaza. Israel may now be backtracking under pressure from the United States, which has given Netanyahu’s government a 30-day deadline to increase the amount of aid it allows into Gaza or risk losing US weapons funding.

Undermining international norms and rules

Israel’s war against Gaza, and now Lebanon, has repeatedly challenged the foundations of the liberal international rules-based order set up after the second world war, as well as the tenets of international law, multilateral diplomacy, democracy and humanitarianism.

The norms of the liberal world order are expressed in various institutions, such as:

  • the UN Charter
  • the UN Security Council, with its notionally legally binding resolutions
  • the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague
  • the Geneva Conventions governing the rules of war
  • the Universal Declaration of Human Rights
  • and the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC), among many others.

Recently, the ICJ ruled Israel’s occupation of the West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem is illegal and ordered it to withdraw. In response, Netanyahu said the court had made a “decision of lies”.

In a separate case, South Africa brought a charge to the ICJ, alleging Israel has committed genocide against the Palestinian people over the past year. The world’s top court has preliminarily ruled there is a “plausible” case for a finding of genocide, and said Israel must take measures to ensure its prevention.

At this juncture, however, human rights groups and others have argued that Israel has failed to comply with this order, thereby undermining one of the key institutions of the liberal world order.

This is compounded by the fact that few major democratic states have been willing to strongly condemn Israel’s failure to comply with international law in Gaza – or have done so belatedly – let alone intervened in any concrete fashion.

In addition, the UN Security Council has failed – primarily due to the veto power exercised by the US – to take any tangible measures to enforce its own resolutions against Israel, as well as the rulings of the ICJ.

This is fuelling widespread perceptions of hypocrisy in relation to the accountability of notionally democratic states for alleged violations of humanitarian law, compared with other nations that don’t have great power patrons.

In the early 1990s, for instance, the UN Security Council unanimously passed several resolutions against Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, followed a decade later by resolutions demanding Saddam Hussein’s regime comply with weapons inspection mandates. The US and its allies used these resolutions as the legal justification for their invasion of Iraq. Ultimately, no weapons of mass destruction were found. Then UN Secretary General Kofi Annan later said the invasion of Iraq was illegal and contrary to the UN Charter.

However, dozens of UN Security Council resolutions concerning Israel have been passed and not enforced. Many others have been vetoed by the US.

The prosecutors of the ICC have also requested arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant for alleged crimes against humanity (in addition to several Hamas leaders, now dead). The warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant were met with indignation by some Western politicians. Yet, the West broadly praised the ICC’s arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Furthermore, the US Congress attempted to sanction the court over the Netanyahu arrest warrant, once again underscoring the often selective way in which international law is applied by nation states.

A crisis of legitimacy for the world order

Democratic states like to present themselves as the protectors, and sometimes enforcers, of the liberal world order, ensuring continued international peace and security.

Indeed, Israel and its supporters often characterise its military actions as the forward defence of the democratic world against tyrannical larger powers, as a means of protecting itself from adversaries that want to destroy it. The problem is Israel’s actions often directly contradict the liberal world order it purports to defend, thereby undermining its legitimacy.

Failure to rein in Israel’s actions has led to accusations of “double standards” regarding international law. The US and Germany provide Israel with 99% of its arm imports and diplomatic cover. Although Germany has stopped approving new weapons exports to Israel, both countries certainly have more leverage to stop the carnage in Gaza if they wish.

The West’s self-abrogated moral superiority is arguably in tatters as it continues to undermine the principles of the liberal world order. The question is: if this world order falls, what will the new world order look like?

The Conversation

Tristan Dunning has signed a statement of solidarity with Palestine from academics in Australian universities.

Shannon Brincat has signed a statement of solidarity with Palestine from academics in Australian universities.

Martin Kear does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Israel’s actions in Gaza, backed by the US, are shaking the world order to its core – https://theconversation.com/israels-actions-in-gaza-backed-by-the-us-are-shaking-the-world-order-to-its-core-241460

New research shows problematic community attitudes allow child sexual abuse to continue

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrea de Silva, Adjunct professor, Monash University

Many Australians are victims and survivors of child sexual abuse.

Almost one in three have been sexually abused as a child, generally more than once, and often with significant and lifelong impacts.

The National Centre for Action on Child Sexual Abuse has released findings from more than 4,000 adults in a new study examining the community’s attitudes towards, knowledge of, and responses to child sexual abuse.

The data reveal some troubling findings, with pervasive and harmful community norms and attitudes that act to enable child sexual abuse to continue.

What are social norms?

Social norms are “rules” shared among people in a particular society, community, or group, and define what is considered “normal” and appropriate behaviour within the group.

These rules are often unwritten and not openly discussed.

These norms influence what people do (and don’t do) in many aspects of life, including preventing and responding to child sexual abuse.

Why do they matter?

Some cultures’ norms and attitudes limit disclosure of abuse.

In our study, 62% were pretty sure they knew someone who had been sexually abused as a child.

Yet only 9% had directly been told by a child about being sexually abused, while 35% had been told by an adult about historical child sexual abuse.

These low rates suggest there are forces at play that limit talking about child sexual abuse.

Some in the community believe it’s not acceptable to discuss child sexual abuse. In response to a hypothetical disclosure by an adult friend, about one in ten thought it was very/extremely important to tell their friend that it’s best not to talk about it at all.

Some (5%) reported they would try to avoid their friend.

What else did the research reveal?

There was also evidence community members didn’t think child sexual abuse was an important problem or that it affected them directly.

Around two in three adults felt they were not directly affected or were unsure if they were affected by child sexual abuse. More than half didn’t think child sexual abuse happened where they live.

One in ten thought child sexual abuse receives too much media coverage.

Some norms and attitudes also limit intervention to stop child sexual abuse.

We found that of those who discovered or received a child’s disclosure about sexual abuse, less than half had a supportive conversation with the child (about 40%) and/or reported to authorities like police or child protection agencies (about 30%).

Also, almost one in three adults were “not at all” confident about how to talk to the parent/carer of a child they suspected had been sexually abused. More than a quarter (28%) felt “not at all” confident about how to start a conversation with the child they suspected had been sexually abused.

Not having these conversations or not reporting maintains secrecy around child sexual abuse. It can send a message to victims and survivors not to talk about it, or that nothing will be done to stop the abuse.

Though the lack of intervention may be due to a lack of confidence, we also found adults held attitudes that children can’t always be believed (22%) or were too unreliable to take their word over an adult’s (18%).

These attitudes mean many children won’t be believed and protected if they disclose sexual abuse.

Some norms and attitudes increase acceptance of child sexual abuse, or blame victims, especially adolescents.

Alarmingly, 40% of respondents in the study thought older children were responsible for actively resisting an adult’s sexual advances, and 12% believed adolescent girls who wear very revealing clothing are “asking” to be sexually abused.

Adding to this, 13% believed children who act “seductively” are at least partly to blame if an adult responds sexually, while 8% thought obedient children are less likely to experience child sexual abuse, implying “good” children won’t be sexually abused.

These harmful attitudes misdirect the blame for the abuse onto the victim, making it unsafe for them to disclose and at the same time, making it acceptable for adults to stay silent.

Blaming victims maintains the status quo of unacceptably high levels of child sexual abuse and causes further harm.

Where to from here?

Putting an end to the sexual abuse of children in Australia requires concerted and co-ordinated action at all levels of society.

Global initiatives offer some guidance on how shifting entrenched and harmful attitudes and norms can change behaviours.

At a minimum, we must challenge gender inequality and power imbalances, promote equitable relationships and shared responsibilities. Mobilisation programs intervening directly at the community level and initiatives with specific populations who hold harmful and problematic attitudes are also promising in preventing child sexual abuse.

Now we have benchmarks on the community’s attitudes towards child sexual abuse, we can measure the effectiveness of Australia’s efforts for change.

It is everyone’s responsibility to know the signs, listen, believe and act in response to child sexual abuse.

The Conversation

Andrea de Silva works for the National Centre for Action on Child Sexual Abuse who conducted this study. The National Centre is funded by the Department of Social Services. The National Centre is a partnership between the Australian Childhood Foundation, Blue Knot Foundation and the Healing Foundation.

Amanda L. Robertson works for the National Centre for Action on Child Sexual Abuse who conducted the study with funding from the Department of Social Services.

ref. New research shows problematic community attitudes allow child sexual abuse to continue – https://theconversation.com/new-research-shows-problematic-community-attitudes-allow-child-sexual-abuse-to-continue-241792

Andrew Garfield and Elmo are going viral with their moving chat. Celebrities can help us talk about grief

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lauren Breen, Professor of Psychology, Curtin University

Sesame Workshop/YouTube

When was the last time you heard someone talk in detail about their grief?

For many of us, it could be rarely or never. There are several reasons for this.

Grieving people often avoid raising the topic in conversation because they want to avoid upsetting or burdening people. Family and friends of grieving people often feel unsure or uncomfortable about asking them to talk about it, fearing they will infringe on the person’s privacy. One study of grieving adults in Australia and Ireland showed nearly one-third said they didn’t receive the support they would have liked. Some experts note we tend to deny or minimise others’ grief, increasing their isolation.

Actor Andrew Garfield, best known for playing Spiderman, appeared on Sesame Street last week and spoke with Elmo in moving and affirming ways about grieving his mother’s death. Clips of their short conversation have been widely shared on social media. It presents a great example of communicating well about grief.

Sadness can be a gift explains Garfield, ‘a lovely thing to feel in a way because it means you really loved somebody when you miss them.’

Kids grieve too

Issues around grief and isolation can be the same for children and young people as for older people.

In fact, grief in young people is recognised as “the last taboo in public health”. By the age of 18, around one in 20 children have a parent die. Even more will experience grief following the deaths of other close people such as siblings and grandparents. Children also grieve the deaths of pets. Yet we struggle to acknowledge, let alone understand and help them with the grief.

Due to a desire to protect them from harm or distress, adults are often reluctant to talk about dying and death with children. We also underestimate their abilities to understand such difficult topics. My recent work with Lionheart Camp for Kids shows such good intentions leave grieving children with many unanswered questions.

So it was great to see Andrew Garfield (who has discussed the topic before on talk shows and in interviews) share his experience on children’s television.

Losing the person who gave you life is bizarre tells Anderson Cooper. ‘It doesn’t make sense.’



Read more:
‘Why did he Leve Me?’ 5 things grieving children want to know about the death of a loved one


It takes two (or more)

Their exchange begins with the character of Elmo checking in with Garfield, to see if he’s OK. He asks in a warm and open-ended way.

What Garfield communicates well is checking if Elmo is willing and comfortable to hear him talk about his thoughts and feelings. He conveys his feelings of grief and speaks about how missing someone is due to love. He shares his understanding about the comforting role memories can bring to the bereaved, and about recognising a deceased person can be celebrated and missed at the same time.

Elmo also does a great job of listening. He normalises Garfield’s thoughts and feelings, and gently affirms his memories of his deceased mother. Importantly, Elmo doesn’t make the conversation about himself or resort to tired clichés like “this shall pass” or “she’d want you to move on”. He doesn’t minimise his discomfort with jokes or provide unsolicited advice on how to feel or behave.

Social support in the wake of loss helps grieving people – if it’s done right. Too often, however, it’s not, and can leave grieving people more distressed.

Though an almost universal need, providing effective social support for grieving people is a complex process. It must involve:

  • a potential supporter recognising the bereaved person’s need for support

  • support that is available, sufficient and offered to the bereaved

  • them perceiving the support as helpful.

Perceptions of whether an offer if support is useful can depend on where it comes from, the type of support, whether it is offered at the right time, and the griever’s level or receptiveness or social isolation.

Listening, validating, support

Garfield and Elmo aren’t the first celebrities to talk openly about grief.

But in daily life, it’s rare to hear anyone talk openly about these feelings. That’s why it’s so refreshing when people in the public eye break the taboo that surrounds grief and loss. It is important for grieving people of all ages to be able to talk about their grief and be listened to. For potential supporters, it is enriching to think about they can listen, validate and support.

As Garfield and Elmo show, grieving people and their support people can work together to develop a compassionate connection in a conversation that benefits both parties.

The Conversation

Lauren Breen receives funding from Healthway and has previously received funding from Wellcome Trust, Australian Research Council, Department of Health (Western Australia), Silver Chain, iCare Dust Diseases Board (New South Wales), and Cancer Council (Western Australia). She is on the board of Lionheart Camp for Kids and is a member of Grief Australia and the Australian Psychological Society.

ref. Andrew Garfield and Elmo are going viral with their moving chat. Celebrities can help us talk about grief – https://theconversation.com/andrew-garfield-and-elmo-are-going-viral-with-their-moving-chat-celebrities-can-help-us-talk-about-grief-241782

Let’s tax carbon: Ross Garnaut on why the time is right for a second shot at carbon pricing

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ross Garnaut, Professorial Research Fellow in Economics, The University of Melbourne

Damitha Jayawardena/Shutterstock

Australia now has a government and parliament wanting timely transition to net zero. We have a government and parliament wanting to build Australia as the renewable energy superpower of the zero-carbon world economy. For the time being, we have favourable international settings for using our opportunity.

The government of Australia has embraced this superpower narrative, taken some big steps towards supporting its emergence, and articulated sound principles for guiding further policy development.

But Australians in business and the community wanting to make large efforts to turn opportunity into reality find themselves in a tangle of policy uncertainty and contradiction.

The source of the problem is the abolition of carbon pricing in 2014. Since then, the Commonwealth government has worked within constraints that rule out success.

We can make a start towards net zero and becoming a renewable energy superpower without moving the constraints, but we can’t get far. This is a problem for any government of Australia, and not only for the current Labor government. We will not rise sustainably out of the post-pandemic dog days until we get energy policy right.

Striking the right balance

Striking the right balance between state intervention and market exchange is always essential for successful economic development, in all places.

The market generally delivers goods and services more cost-effectively than the state where there is genuine competition among suppliers and purchasers of goods and services.

The difference is especially large and important at a time of structural change and uncertainty. State decisions inevitably tend towards continuation on established paths and slow response to new opportunities.

Australia will not make use of more than a small fraction of the superpower opportunities available to it without immense contributions from an innovative, competitive private business sector.

So we have to design energy and related markets that provide the widest possible scope for competition among enterprises within clear rules understood in advance of investment decisions by all market participants.

The state has to do well the things that only the state can do. Because government capacity is a finite resource, it is much more likely that it will do the essential things well if it doesn’t try to do the things that markets do well.

The state must define the boundaries between the services that it delivers and those to be delivered by the market.

In the electricity sector, government must take responsibility for design of the market rules and compliance with them. It must provide the natural monopoly services of electricity transmission and hydrogen transportation and storage. It must take ultimate responsibility for system security and reliability.

For any market to work, individual market participants must be blocked by regulation from damaging others through their business decisions, or subject to a tax equal to the costs they impose on others. And they must be rewarded for large benefits that they confer on others.

This is essential economics. Its understatement in Productivity Commission and financial media commentary on energy and climate policy discussion over the past decade reveals the debasement of Australian political culture that gave us the dog days.

It has been politically incorrect to tell the truth out loud.

It’s time for carbon pricing

A crucial element of post-2030 market design is introduction of a green premium for zero-carbon energy.

It is obviously necessary for low-cost decarbonisation and expansion of the electricity sector and building Australia as a renewable energy superpower. The green premium is crucial for securing international market access for the zero-carbon export industries.

One of the dog days constraints on policy is that there should be no mandatory demands on private investors. Those constraints must be broken for the green premium to reflect the social cost of carbon, as it must if we are to achieve net zero by 2050 and build Australia as the renewable energy superpower.

The economically efficient way of achieving the premium is carbon pricing. It would be most efficient within an economy-wide system, although it could be introduced initially for the electricity sector and extended to other industries later.

Investors now need to know soon that there will be a premium reasonably related to the social cost of carbon after the Renewable Energy Target ends in 2030.

What matters for the superpower industries is the green premiums for which they are eligible in other countries. Pending the emergence of appropriate premiums, the Commonwealth is proposing payments from the budget.

That is appropriate. It can get the early movers started. It would be expensive if it continued for long. The superpower industries will grow rapidly if they have access to premiums corresponding to the social cost of carbon. Over time, payments from the Australian budget will be replaced by market premiums in destination countries.

There are several possible forms of carbon pricing. The system operating in Australia from 2012 to 2014 was economically and environmentally efficient.

It would have been linked to the EU Emissions Trading System from July 1 2014 if it had not been abolished the day before. The Australian carbon price would be equal to the European price. We would be introducing a European-type Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism to ensure that Australian producers were not disadvantaged by competition in the domestic market from suppliers who were not subject to similar carbon constraints. The ETS (emissions trading scheme) would be contributing around 2% of GDP to public revenues – going a substantial part of the way to answering the daunting budget challenge to restoration of Australian prosperity.

Part of that increased revenue could support payments to power users to ensure there was no increase in power prices to users until expansion of renewable generation and storage had brought costs down – along the lines of the A$300 per household introduced in the 2024 budget, but larger.

The arrangements would provide automatic access for zero-carbon Australian goods to the high-priced European market. There would be no need to provide for a green premium for sales to Europe from the Australian market. The green premiums in other markets would at first need to be covered, as they are now, from the Australian public revenue.

A carbon solutions levy

Rod Sims (former chair of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission) and I have suggested a carbon solutions levy. It is administratively simpler than the ETS. It would initially raise much more revenue.

We propose exemption for coal and gas exports to countries in which Australian zero-carbon exports attract a premium comparable to the EU carbon price, even if it is not generated through an ETS.

We would hope that if the carbon solutions levy were to be introduced from 2030, our major trading partners would by that time have introduced green premiums that justify exemption from the levy for coal and gas exports to those countries.

The European Union would be exempt from the beginning. The Northeast Asian economies are moving towards eventual justification of exemption. China now has a country-wide emissions trading system.

The carbon price in July 2024 is about A$21 per tonne, having increased by 50% since early in the year. The price is expected to continue rising until it is playing a major role in transformation of Chinese industry.

Incidentally, China undertook to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change that its emissions would peak by 2030, but its rapid expansion of renewable energy generation, electric vehicles and zero-carbon industrial technologies suggest that the peak may have come in 2023.

Japan is working on direct budgetary support for importers of zero-carbon products which could pass through into a premium for zero-carbon exports from Australia.

During a visit in April 2024, I was advised that the Japanese government is working towards issue of “green bonds” to pay for the premium. A carbon tax from 2035 would meet the cost of servicing and retiring the bonds.

Korea and Taiwan are introducing their own mechanisms for supporting premiums for zero-carbon imports.

One initial criticism of the carbon solutions levy is that it would cause leakage of Australian exports to competing suppliers of gas and coal. There would be some leakage, alongside substantial transfers from rents to the public revenues, and for metallurgical coal in particular, some increase in export prices.

The price increase would introduce an element of green premium for Australian green iron exports. The Superpower Institute (a non-profit research organisation founded by Sims and I) has commissioned the Centre of Policy Studies at Victoria University to quantify the extent of leakage, transfers from rent and higher export prices. The results will be available for public discussion early in 2025. The study will also calculate the effect of the levy on Australian public finances, real incomes and real consumption.

Regional considerations

Australia’s main competitor in regional coal markets is Indonesia. Its main competitors in gas markets are Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Indonesia, Brunei and the Middle East petroleum producers.

No informed person would suggest that there could be an economic problem with leakage to the Middle East: Saudi Arabia and the small Gulf states extract revenue from petroleum exports at much higher rates per dollar than Australia would after imposition of the levy.

There is a case in the Australian national interest for not seeing expansion of export sales from Papua New Guinea and East Timor as being entirely a waste.

But in their national interest and ours, I suggest that we seek to negotiate a four-way agreement on climate and energy with Indonesia, East Timor and Papua New Guinea.

We would all impose carbon solutions levy-type levies at similar rates. This would be a major source of revenue for all of us.

Participation of Indonesia removes leakage of coal exports. Indonesia already has an emissions trading scheme, although it generates a carbon price of only a few dollars per tonne.

It may choose to remove other imposts on fossil carbon exports at the time of introduction of new carbon-related measures – such as the requirement to make 35% of coal exports available at prices well below international prices for domestic power generation.

Participation of the four countries removes the leakage issue for gas. The four neighbours would cooperate in major development programs based on expansion of zero-carbon energy supply and goods production.

There is active discussion in Indonesia of archipelago-wide electricity transmission infrastructure to allow the superior renewable energy resources of the outer islands – Papua, Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi, Kalimantan, Sumatra – to contribute to decarbonisation and growth of zero-carbon industry everywhere, including in the Java heartland.

The Indonesian grid would run close to neighbouring Australia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, East and West Malaysia and the Philippines. It would be the geopolitically practical means of linking Australia and Singapore, as envisaged in the SunCable project in the Northern Territory.

The Indonesian national grid could link to the Australian Sungrid discussed in my book The Superpower Transformation in Darwin and the Pilbara.

The alternatives to carbon pricing are weak

The alternatives to economy-wide carbon pricing are likely to turn out to be short-lived expedients that lead sooner rather than later to the return of today’s incoherence and underperformance in energy and climate policy and performance.

The state must provide reliability of power supply to the general population.

The Commonwealth government can do this without distorting competitive electricity markets by establishing an energy reserve I have proposed in my book The Superpower Transformation.

The superpower industries depend on electricity and hydrogen markets operating efficiently and embodying carbon prices. Otherwise the market design issues relevant to their development are similar to those for electricity.

Negative carbon externalities need to be corrected by taxation or alternative carbon pricing mechanisms. Positive externalities from innovation should be rewarded.

Positive innovation externalities are important in the introduction of new industries, technologies and business models for the zero-carbon economy.

Economy-wide carbon pricing at the social cost of carbon is essential to getting the balance right between state intervention and market exchange.

Once it is in place with fiscal rewards for innovation, the government can let businesses decide which new industries and technologies warrant investment.

Once carbon pricing is known to be coming into place reasonably soon, there is no further need for government underwriting of investment in power generation.

There is no need to include a climate trigger in assessment of a project of any kind: if it emits carbon, it will pay for the climate damage it does.

There is no need for government to take a view on climate grounds about the merits of nuclear power generation. It is zero-emissions generation and, like renewable energy, not subject to the carbon price. If it can compete with other forms of generation, it will find a place in private investment decisions on the energy mix.

There is no need for government investment in nuclear power generation. Private investors will have the same incentives to invest in nuclear as in other zero-carbon generation technologies.

There will be no need for the government to take a view on incentives for carbon capture and storage. If it is effective and emissions are actually reduced, carbon payments will be correspondingly reduced.

The carbon price will allow private investors to get on with the job of expanding renewable energy supply at a rapid pace and decarbonising the economy more generally.


This is an edited extract from Ross Garnaut’s new book, Let’s Tax Carbon: And Other Ideas for a Better Australia.

Ross Garnaut is a Director and shareholder of Zen Energy. Together with Rod Sims, Ross is a co-founder and Director of The Superpower Institute, a not for profit think tank.

ref. Let’s tax carbon: Ross Garnaut on why the time is right for a second shot at carbon pricing – https://theconversation.com/lets-tax-carbon-ross-garnaut-on-why-the-time-is-right-for-a-second-shot-at-carbon-pricing-241806

Apia Ocean Declaration to be ‘crown jewel’ of CHOGM climate ‘fight back’

By Sialai Sarafina Sanerivi in Apia

The Ocean Declaration that will be agreed upon at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) this week will be known as the Apia Ocean Declaration.

In an exclusive interview with the Samoa Observer, Commonwealth Secretary-General Patricia Scotland said members were in a unique position to bring their voices together for the oceans, which have long been neglected.

“The Apia Ocean Declaration aims to address the rising threats to our ocean faces, especially from climate change and rising sea levels,” she said.


Commonwealth pushes for ocean protection with historic Apia Ocean Declaration. Video: Samoa Observer

Scotland, reflecting on her tenure as Secretary-General, noted the privilege of serving the Commonwealth, a diverse family of 56 countries comprising 2.7 billion people.

“I am very much the child of the Commonwealth. With 60 percent of our population under 30 years, we must prioritise their future.”

Scotland reflected that upon assuming her role, she recognised immediately that addressing climate change would be a key priority for the Commonwealth.

“Why? Because we have 33 small states, 25 small island states and we were the ones who were really suffering this badly,” she said.

Pacific a ‘big blue ocean state’
“We also knew in 2016 that nobody was looking at the oceans. Now, the Pacific is a big blue ocean state.

“But it’s one of the most under-resourced elements that we have. And yet, look at what was happening. The hurricanes and the cyclones were getting bigger and bigger.

“Why? Because our ocean had absorbed so much of the heat, so much of the carbon, and now it was starting to become saturated. So before, our ocean acted as a coolant. The cyclone would come, the hurricane would come, they’d pass over our cool blue water, and the heat would be drawn out.”

The Apia Ocean Declaration emerged from a pressing need to protect the oceans, especially given the devastating impact of climate change on coastal and island nations.

“We realised that while many discussions were happening globally, the oceans were often overlooked,” Scotland remarked.

“In 2016, we recognised the necessity for collective action. Our oceans absorb much of the carbon and heat, leading to increasingly severe hurricanes and cyclones.”

Scotland has spearheaded initiatives that brought together oceanographers, climatologists, and various stakeholders.

Commonwealth Secretary-General Patricia Scotland . . . discussing this week’s planned Apia Ocean Declaration at CHOGM, highlighting the urgent need for global action to protect oceans. Image: Junior S. Ami/Samoa Observer

Worked in silos ‘for too long’
“We worked in silos for too long. It was time to unite our efforts for the ocean’s health.

“That’s when we realised that nobody had their eye on our oceans, but of the 56 Commonwealth members, many of us are island states, so our whole life is dependent on our ocean. And so that’s when the fight back happened.”

This collaboration resulted in the establishment of the Commonwealth Blue Charter, a significant framework focused on ocean conservation.

“Fiji’s presidency at the UN Oceans Conference was a turning point. Critics said it would take years to establish an ocean instrument, but we achieved it in less than ten months.”

“We are not just talking; we are implementing solutions.”

Scotland also addressed the financial challenges faced by many small island states, particularly regarding climate funding.

“In 2009, $100 billion was promised by those who had been primarily responsible for the climate crisis, to help those of us who contributed almost nothing to get over the hump.

Hard for finance applications
“But the money wasn’t coming. And in those days, many of our members found it so hard to put those applications together.”

To combat this issue, the Commonwealth established a Climate Finance Access Hub, facilitating over $365 million in funding for member states with another $500 million in the pipeline.

“But this has caused us to say we have to go further,” she added.

“We’re using geospatial data, we have to fill in the gaps for our members who don’t have the data, so we can look at what has happened in the past, what may happen in the future, and now we have AI to help us do the simulators.

“The Ocean Ministers’ Conference highlighted the importance of ensuring that countries at risk of disappearing under the waves can maintain their maritime jurisdiction,” Scotland asserted.

“The thing that we thought was so important is that those countries threatened with the rising of the sea, which could take away their whole island, don’t have certainty in terms of that jurisdiction. What will happen if our islands drop below the sea level?

“And we wanted our member states to be confident that if they had settled their marine boundaries, that jurisdiction would be set in perpetuity. Because that was the biggest guarantee; I may lose my land, but please don’t tell me I’m going to lose my ocean too.

Target an ocean declaration
“So that was the target for the Ocean Ministers’ Conference. And out of that came the idea that we would have an ocean declaration.

“It is that ocean declaration that we are bringing here to Samoa. And the whole poignancy of that is Samoa is the first small island state in the Pacific ever to host CHOGM. So wouldn’t it be beautiful if out of this big blue ocean state, this wonderful Pacific state, we could get an ocean declaration which could in the future be able to be known as the Apia Ocean Declaration? Because we would really mark what we’re doing here.

“What the Commonwealth has been determined to do throughout this whole period is not just talk, but take positive action to help our members not only just to survive, but to thrive.

“And if, which I hope we will, we get an agreement from our 56 states on this ocean declaration, it enables us to put the evidence before everyone, not only to secure what we need, but then to say 0.05 percent of the money is not enough to save our oceans.

“Oceans are the most underfunded area.

“I hope that all the work we’ve done on the Universal Vulnerability Index, on the nature of the vulnerability for our members, will be able to justify proper money, proper resources being put in.

“And you know what’s happening in this area; our fishermen are under threat.

“Our ability to use the oceans in the way we’ve used for millennia to feed our people, support our people, is really under threat. So this CHOGM is our fight back.”

As the meeting progresses, the emphasis remains on achieving consensus among the 56 member states regarding the Apia Ocean Declaration.

Republished from the Samoa Observer with permission.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Scurvy is largely a historical disease but there are signs it’s making a comeback

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lauren Ball, Professor of Community Health and Wellbeing, The University of Queensland

Matilda Wormwood/Pexels

Scurvy is is often considered a historical ailment, conjuring images of sailors on long sea voyages suffering from a lack of fresh fruit and vegetables.

Yet doctors in developed countries have recently reported treating cases of scurvy, including Australian doctors who reported their findings today in the journal BMJ Case Reports.

What is scurvy?

Scurvy is a disease caused by a severe deficiency of vitamin C (ascorbic acid), which is essential for the production of collagen. This protein helps maintain the health of skin, blood vessels, bones and connective tissue.

Without enough vitamin C, the body cannot properly repair tissues, heal wounds, or fight infections. This can lead to a range of symptoms including:

  • fatigue and weakness
  • swollen, bleeding gums or loose teeth
  • joint and muscle pain and tenderness
  • bruising easily
  • dry, rough or discoloured skin (reddish or purple spots due to bleeding under the skin)
  • cuts and sores take longer to heal
  • anaemia (a shortage of red blood cells, leading to further fatigue and weakness)
  • increased susceptibility to infections.

It historically affected sailors

Scurvy was common from the 15th to 18th centuries, when naval sailors and other explorers lived on rations or went without fresh food for long periods. You might have heard some of these milestones in the history of the disease:

  • in 1497-1499, Vasco da Gama’s crew suffered severely from scurvy during their expedition to India, with a large portion of the crew dying from it

  • from the 16th to 18th centuries, scurvy was rampant among European navies and explorers, affecting notable figures such as Ferdinand Magellan and Sir Francis Drake. It was considered one of the greatest threats to sailors’ health during long voyages

  • in 1747, British naval surgeon James Lind is thought to have conducted one of the first clinical trials, demonstrating that citrus fruit could prevent and cure scurvy. However, it took several decades for his findings to be widely implemented

  • in 1795, the British Royal Navy officially adopted the practice of providing lemon or lime juice to sailors, dramatically reducing the number of scurvy cases.

Evidence of scurvy re-emerging

In the new case report, doctors in Western Australia reported treating a middle-aged man with the condition. In a separate case report, doctors in Canada reported treating a 65-year old woman.

Tangarines
There’s an abundance of vitamin C in our food supply, but some people still aren’t getting enough.
Rebecca Kate/Pexels

Both patients presented with leg weakness and compromised skin, yet the doctors didn’t initially consider scurvy. This was based on the premise that there is abundant vitamin C in our modern food supply, so deficiency should not occur.

On both occasions, treatment with high doses of vitamin C (1,000mg per day for at least seven days) resulted in improvements in symptoms and eventually a full recovery.

The authors of both case reports are concerned that if scurvy is left untreated, it could lead to inflamed blood vessels (vasculitis) and potentially cause fatal bleeding.

Last year, a major New South Wales hospital undertook a chart review, where patient records are reviewed to answer research questions.

This found vitamin C deficiency was common. More than 50% of patients who had their vitamin C levels tested had either a modest deficiency (29.9%) or significant deficiency (24.5%). Deficiencies were more common among patients from rural and lower socioeconomic areas.

Now clinicians are urged to consider vitamin C deficiency and scurvy as a potential diagnosis and involve the support of a dietitian.

Why might scurvy be re-emerging?

Sourcing and consuming nutritious foods with sufficient vitamin C is unfortunately still an issue for some people. Factors that increase the risk of vitamin C deficiency include:

  • poor diet. People with restricted diets – due to poverty, food insecurity or dietary choices – may not get enough vitamin C. This includes those who rely heavily on processed, nutrient-poor foods rather than fresh produce

  • food deserts. In areas where access to fresh, affordable fruits and vegetables is limited (often referred to as food deserts), people may unintentionally suffer from a vitamin C deficiency. In some parts of developing countries such as India, lack of access to fresh food is recognised as a risk for scurvy

  • the cost-of-living crisis. With greater numbers of people unable to pay for fresh produce, people who limit their intake of fruits and vegetables may develop nutrient deficiencies, including scurvy

Couple buy capsicums at the supermarket
Capsicums are a good source of vitamin D but they’re not cheap.
Pexels/Jack Sparrow
  • weight loss procedures and medications. Restricted dietary intake due to weight loss surgery or weight loss medications may lead to nutrient deficiencies, such as in this case report of scurvy from Denmark

  • mental illness and eating disorders. Conditions such as depression and anorexia nervosa can lead to severely restricted diets, increasing the risk of scurvy, such as in this case report from 2020 in Canada

  • isolation. Older adults, especially those who live alone or in nursing homes, may have difficulty preparing balanced meals with sufficient vitamin C

  • certain medical conditions. People with digestive disorders, malabsorption issues, or those on restrictive medical diets (due to severe allergies or intolerances) can develop scurvy if they are unable to absorb or consume enough vitamin C.

How much vitamin C do we need?

Australia’s dietary guidelines recommend adults consume 45mg of vitamin C (higher if pregnant or breastfeeding) each day. This is roughly the amount found in half an orange or half a cup of strawberries.

When more vitamin C is consumed than required, excess amounts leave the body through urine.

Signs of scurvy can appear as early as a month after a daily intake of less than 10 mg of vitamin C.

Eating vitamin C-rich foods – such as oranges, strawberries, kiwifruit, plums, pineapple, mango, capsicum, broccoli and Brussels sprouts – can resolve symptoms within a few weeks.

Vitamin C is also readily available as a supplement if there are reasons why intake through food may be compromised. Typically, the supplements contain 1,000mg per tablet, and the recommended upper limit for daily Vitamin C intake is 2,000mg.

The Conversation

Lauren Ball receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Queensland Health and Mater Misericordia. She is a Director of Dietitians Australia, a Director of Food Standards Australia and New Zealand, a Director of the Darling Downs and West Moreton Primary Health Network and an Associate Member of the Australian Academy of Health and Medical Sciences.

ref. Scurvy is largely a historical disease but there are signs it’s making a comeback – https://theconversation.com/scurvy-is-largely-a-historical-disease-but-there-are-signs-its-making-a-comeback-241894

Deadly bus ambush in PNG’s Enga province kills, wounds many

By Miriam Zarriga in Port Moresby

A deadly ambush unfolded in Enga province between 6 p.m. and 7 p.m. last night, leaving multiple people dead after a bus was attacked by armed men.

Police confirmed to the Post-Courier that bodies were found both inside the bus and scattered in nearby bushland. Men and women attempting to flee the gunfire were gunned down before they could get far.

Witnesses reported that the bus, a public motor vehicle (PMV), was riddled with bullets during the ambush.

Blood and bodies lay strewn across the area when a distress call alerted police at Surunki station to the tragic scene.

The PMV was later escorted to Wabag General Hospital, where the bodies were removed. Hospital staff have warned that more victims may still arrive.

Local MP Aimos Akem attributed the deaths to escalating violence linked to ongoing conflict in Porgera, saying it continues to take a heavy toll on the people of Lagaip.

Republished from the PNG Post-Courier with permission.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

New Caledonia crisis: Pacific leaders’ mission must ‘look beyond surface’

INTERVIEW: By Don Wiseman, RNZ Pacific senior journalist

Last week, New Caledonia was visited by France’s new Overseas Minister, François Buffet, offering a more conciliatory position by Paris.

This week, the territory, torn apart by violent riots, is to receive a Pacific Islands Forum fact-finding mission comprised of four prime ministers.

New Caledonia has been riven with violence and destruction for much of the past five months, resulting in 13 deaths and countless cases of arson.

Islands Business journalist Nic Maclellan is back there for the first time since the rioting began on May 13 and RNZ Pacific asked for his first impressions.

Nic Maclellan: Day by day, things are very calm. It’s been a beautiful weekend, and there were people at the beach in the southern suburbs of Nouméa. People are going about their daily business. And on the surface, you don’t really notice that there’s been months of clashes between Kanak protesters and French security forces.

But every now and then, you stumble across a site that reminds you that this crisis is still, in many ways, unresolved. As you leave Tontouta Airport, the main gateway to the islands, for example, the airport buildings are surrounded by razor wire.

The French High Commission, which has a very high grill, is also topped with razor wire. It’s little things like that that remind you, that despite the removal of barricades which have dotted both Noumea and the main island for months, there are still underlying tensions that are unresolved.

And all of this comes at a time of enormous economic crisis, with key industries like tourism and nickel badly affected by months of dispute. Thousands of people either lost their jobs, or on part-time employment, and uncertainty about what capacity the French government brings from Paris to resolve long standing problems.

Don Wiseman: Well, New Caledonia is looking for a lot of money in grant form. Is it going to get it?

NMac: With, people I’ve spoken to in the last few days and with statements from major political parties, there’s enormous concern that political leaders in France don’t understand the depth of the crisis here; political, cultural, economic. President Macron, after losing the European Parliament elections, then seeing significant problems during the National Assembly elections that he called the snap votes, finds that there’s no governing majority in the French Parliament.

It took 51 days to appoint a new prime minister, another few weeks to appoint a government, and although France’s Overseas Minister Francois Noel Buffet visited last week, made a number of pledges, which were welcomed, there was sharp criticism, particularly from anti-independence leaders, from the so called loyalists, that France hadn’t recognised the enormity of what’s happened, and to translate that into financial commitments.

The Congress of New Caledonia passed a bipartisan, or all party proposal, for significant funding over the next five years, amounting to almost 4 billion euros, a vast sum, but money required to rebuild shattered economic institutions and restore public institutions that were damaged during months of riots and arson, is not there.

France faces, in Metropolitan France, a major fiscal crisis. The current Prime Minister Michel Barnier announced they cut $250 million out of funding for overseas territories. There’s a lot of work going on across the political spectrum, from politicians in New Caledonia, trying to make Paris understand that this is significant.

DW: Does Paris understand what happened in New Caledonia back in the 1980s?

NMac: Some do. I think there’s a real problem, though, that there’s a consistency of French policy that is reluctant to engage with France’s responsibilities as what the United Nations calls it, “administering power of a non-self-governing territory”.

You know, it’s a French colony. The Noumea Accord said that there should be a transition towards a new political status, and that situation is unresolved. Just this morning (Tuesday), I attended the session of the Congress of New Caledonia, which voted in majority that the provincial elections should be delayed until late next year, late 2025.

The aim would be to give time for the French State and both supporters and opponents of independence to meet to talk out a new political statute to replace the 1998 Noumea Accord. However, it’s clear from different perspectives that have been expressed in the Congress that there’s not a meeting of minds about the way forward. And key independence parties in the umbrella coalition, the FLNKS make it clear that they only see a comprehensive agreement possible if there’s a pathway forward towards sovereignty, even with a period of inter-dependence with France and over time to be negotiated.

The loyalists believe that that’s not a priority, that economic reconstruction is the priority, and a talk of sovereignty at this time is inappropriate. So, there’s a long way to go before the French can bring people together around the negotiating table, and that will play out in coming weeks.

DW: The new Overseas Minister seems to have taken a very conciliatory approach. That must be helpful.

NMac: For months and months, the FLNKS said that they were willing to discuss electoral reforms, opening up the voting rolls for the local political institutions to more French nationals, particularly New Caledonian-born citizens, but that it had to be part of a comprehensive, overarching agreement.

The very fact that President Macron tried to force key independence parties, particularly the largest, Union Caledoniénne, to the negotiating table by unilaterally trying to push through changes to these voting rules triggered the crisis that began on the 13th of May.

After five months of terrible destruction of schools, of hospitals, thousands of people, literally leaving New Caledonia, Macron has realised that you can’t push this through by force. As you say, Overseas Minister Buffet had a more conciliatory tone. He reconfirmed that the controversial reforms to the electoral laws have been abandoned. Doesn’t mean they won’t come back up in discussions in the future, but we’re back at square one in many ways, and yet there’s been five months of really terrible conflict between supporters and opponents of independence.

The fact that this is unresolved is shown by the reality that the French High Commissioner has announced that the overnight curfew is extended until early November, that the French police and security forces that have been deployed here, more than 6000 gendarmes, riot squads backed by armoured cars, helicopters and more, will be held until at least the end of the year.

This crisis is unresolved, and I think as Pacific leaders arrive this week, they’ll have to look beyond the surface calm to realise that there are many issues that still have to play out in the months to come.

DW: So with this Forum visit, how free will these people be to move around to make their own assessments?

NMac: I sense that there’s a tension between the government of New Caledonia and the French authorities about the purpose of this visit. In the past, French diplomats have suggested that the Forum is welcome to come, to condemn violence, to address the question of reconstruction and so on.

But I sense a reluctance to address issues around France’s responsibility for decolonisation, at the same time, key members of the delegation, such as Prime Minister Manele of Solomon Islands, Prime Minister Rabuka, have strong contacts through the Melanesian Spearhead Group, with members of the FLNKS and the broader political networks here. To that extent, there’ll be informal as well as formal dialogue. As the Forum members hit the ground after a long delay to their mission.

DW: There have been in the past, Forum groups that have gone to investigate various situations, and they’ve tended to take a very superficial view of everything that’s going on.

NMac: I think there are examples where the Forum missions have been very important. For example, in 2021 at the time of the third referendum on self-determination, the one rushed through by the French State in the middle of the covid pandemic, a delegation led by Ratu Inoke Kubuabola, a former Fiji Foreign Minister, with then Secretary-General of the Forum, Henry Puna, they wrote a very strong report criticising the legitimacy and credibility of that vote, because the vast majority of independence supporters, particularly indigenous Kanaks, didn’t turn out for the vote.

France claims it’s a strong no vote, but the Forum report, which most people haven’t read, actually questions the legitimacy of this politically. The very fact that four prime ministers are coming, not diplomats, not ministers, not just officials, but four prime ministers of Forum member countries, shows that this is an important moment for regional engagement.

Right from the beginning of the crisis, the then chair of the Forum, Mark Brown, who’ll be on the delegation, talked about the need for the Forum to create a neutral space for dialogue, for talanoa, to resolve long standing differences.

The very presence of them, although it hasn’t had much publicity here so far, will be a sign that this is not an internal matter for France, but in fact a matter of regional and international attention.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

What’s the difference between fusion and fission? A nuclear physicist explains

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Hole, Professor, Mathematical Sciences Institute and School of Computing, Australian National University

Quality Stock Arts/Shutterstock

Globally, nuclear power accounts for roughly 10% of electricity generation. In some countries, such as France, this figure is nearly 70%.

Big tech companies such as Google are also turning to nuclear power to meet the huge power demands of their data centres.

The source of all nuclear power is the binding energy of an atom. The energy stored in an atom can be released in two main ways: fission or fusion. Fission involves splitting big heavy atoms into smaller, lighter ones. Fusion involves combining little atoms together into bigger ones.

Both processes release a lot of energy. For example, one nuclear fission decay of U235, an isotope of uranium typically used as the fuel in most power plants, produces more than 6 million times the energy per single chemical reaction of the purest coal. This means they are great processes for generating power.

What is fission?

Fission is the process behind every nuclear power plant in operation today. It occurs when a tiny subatomic particle called a neutron is slammed into an uranium atom, splitting it. This releases more neutrons, which continue colliding with other atoms, setting off a nuclear chain reaction. This in turn releases a tremendous amount of energy.

To convert this energy to electricity a heat exchanger is installed, which turns water to steam, driving a turbine to produce power.

The fission reaction can be controlled by suppressing the supply of neutrons. This is achieved by inserting “control rods” which soak up neutrons. Historically, nuclear accidents such as Chernobyl have occurred when the control rods fail to engage and quench the neutron supply, and/or coolant circulation fails.

So called “third generation” designs improve on early designs by incorporating passive or inherent safety features which require no active controls or human intervention to avoid accidents in the event of malfunction. These features may rely on pressure differentials, gravity, natural convection, or the natural response of materials to high temperatures.

The first third generation reactors were the Kashiwazaki 6 and 7 advanced boiling water reactors in Japan.

The Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Station in Japan.
Tokyo Electric Power Co, CC BY-SA

An unresolved challenge for fission is that the byproducts of the reaction are radioactive for a long time, in the order of thousands of years. If reprocessed, the fuel source and waste can also be used to make a nuclear weapon.

Fission power is a demonstrated technology. It is also scalable from large scale (the largest is the 7.97 gigawatt Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant in Japan) through to small-to-medium reactors that produce around 150 megawatts of electricity, as used on a ship or nuclear submarine. These are the reactors that will power Australia’s eight nuclear submarines promised as part of a trilateral security partnership with the United Kingdom and the United States.

What is fusion?

Fusion is the process that powers the Sun and stars. It is the opposite process to fission. It occurs when atoms are fused together.

The easiest reaction to initiate in the laboratory is the fusion of isotopes of hydrogen, deuterium and tritium. Per unit mass, the reaction produces 4 times more energy than the fission of U235.

The fuel ion deuterium is incredibly abundant on Earth and in the universe. Tritium is radioactive with a half-life of 12 years, so is very rare on Earth. The universe is 13.8 billion years old; the only isotopes of light nuclei (hydrogen, helium and lithium) found in nature are those that are stable on those time scales.

In a fusion power plant, tritium would be manufactured using a “lithium blanket”. This is a solid lithium wall in which fusion neutrons slow and ultimately react to form tritium.

However, at present it’s very difficult for scientists to create a fusion reaction outside of the laboratory. That’s because it requires incredibly hot conditions to fuse: the optimal conditions are 150 million degrees Celsius.

Fusion is the process that powers the Sun.
SOHO (ESA & NASA)

At these temperatures the fuel ions exist in the plasma state, where electrons and (nuclear) ions are dissociated. The byproduct of this process isn’t radioactive; rather, it’s helium, an inert gas.

The leading technology path to demonstrate sustained fusion is called “toroidal magnetic confinement”. This is when the plasma is confined at extreme temperatures in a very large doughnut-shaped magnetic bottle.

Unlike fission, this technology path requires continuous external heating to reach fusion conditions and a strong confining field. Terminate either and the reaction stops. The challenge is not uncontrolled meltdown, but getting the reaction to occur at all.

A major unresolved challenge for toroidal magnetic confinement fusion, which attracts the majority of research interest, is the demonstration of a burning self-heated plasma. This is when the heating power produced by the reaction itself is primary. This is the objective of the publicly funded multi-national ITER project, the world’s largest fusion experiment, and the privately funded SPARC experiment at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

However, the consensus of much of the scientific community is that fusion will not be commercially viable until at least 2050.

A climate solution?

I am often asked if nuclear power could save Earth from climate change. I have many colleagues in climate science, and indeed my late wife was a high-profile climate scientist.

The science is clear: it is too late to stop climate change. The world needs to do everything it can to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and minimise catastrophic damage, and it needs to have done it decades ago.

For the planet, fission is part of that global solution, together with widespread rollout and adoption of renewable sources of power such as wind and solar.

On a longer time scale, one hopes that fusion might replace fission. The fuel supply is much larger and ubiquitously distributed, the waste problem is orders of magnitude smaller in volume and timescale, and the technology cannot be weaponised.

Matthew Hole receives funding from the Australian government through the Australian Research Council and the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), and the Simons Foundation. He is also affiliated with ANSTO, the ITER Organisation as an ITER Science Fellow, and is Chair of the Australian ITER Forum.

ref. What’s the difference between fusion and fission? A nuclear physicist explains – https://theconversation.com/whats-the-difference-between-fusion-and-fission-a-nuclear-physicist-explains-240438

Labor looks set for a resounding defeat in Queensland. But the state’s elections have long thrown up surprises

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Pandanus Petter, Research Fellow School of Politics and International Relations, Australian National University

On Saturday October 26, Queensland Premier Steven Miles’ Labor is vying for a fourth consecutive term in government, up against David Crisafulli’s Liberal National Party (LNP).

Although Labor won the previous election in 2020 comfortably, opinion polls in the lead up to this election have consistently pointed to an LNP win.

Recent Queensland history shows voters can produce dramatic election results, such as the 2012 wipeout of Labor, and its equally dramatic return to government in 2015. With no upper house to provide a check on government power, whoever wins will likely have a relatively free hand to enact their policy agenda.

A continuing trend of increased early voting means many Queenslanders have already made their judgement. But what have been the big issues dominating the campaign, and what priorities will the next government be working toward?

The usual suspects

The big issues of concern to voters in Queensland are likely familiar to people in other states:

  • cost of living

  • housing

  • crime

  • health

  • to a lesser extent, economic management.

However, the two main parties have different emphases and approaches.

A campaign on crime and crises

The LNP is focused on attacking Labor’s record. Crisafulli has largely tried to keep the party firmly on-message, highlighting what they describe as “crises” in housing, youth crime, cost of living, health and government integrity for at least the last year.

The extent of youth crime, what causes it and what solves it are a matter of debate.

But the LNP has been keen to present themselves as proposing tougher solutions than their opponents. They’ve made promises to change youth sentencing laws to deter offenders under the slogan “adult crime, adult time”.

They’ve also promised to provide “tough love” to at-risk youth with mandatory re-training camps.

On other issues, they’ve been promising more efficient health services, incentives to home ownership and greater government transparency.

However, they’ve been careful to try to avoid more controversial issues and present a “small target” on economic management. Interestingly, the LNP has largely confirmed they’ll adopt many of Labor’s budgetary priorities on cost of living relief.

Despite this, a last minute emphasis on the possible reversal of legislation decriminalising abortion and voluntary assisted dying has threatened to derail their careful messaging.

Reverting to old ways, the LNP is backing an “indefinite” commitment to coal fired power plants and dumping a controversial proposed hydroelectric dam.

Crisafulli has walked back earlier support for Treaty with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.

If they win government, the LNP would also likely shut down the freshly minted Truth Telling and Healing Inquiry, claiming they will focus on “practical” help for Indigenous communities instead.

They’re also promising electoral reform with a longstanding commitment to remove “corrupt” compulsory preferential voting and the reversal of laws that banned property developer donations.

Progressive balancing act

Steven Miles took over from Annastacia Palaszczuk as Labor leader and premier less than a year ago.

Labor has also been focused on using incumbency to address key issues, while trying to stake out a position as a force for progressive change.

They have warned of the potential “hidden” dangers of the LNP, pointing to unpopular cuts to the civil service last time the LNP governed.

On cost of living, they’ve given direct relief to households, with 50 cent fares for public transport, $1000 household energy rebates and promised free lunches for public school students.

They have been keen to say this is a dividend from increased royalties charged to coal mining companies.

On housing, they have continued their focus on addressing the undersupply of social and affordable housing alongside modest reforms to renters’ rights (although ruling out any caps on prices).

They’re promising a new era of state intervention to improve competition in petrol and energy retail.

On crime, Labor has followed the LNP’s lead in some matters, such as investing in extra police resources. They’ve also controversially ignored the Human Rights Act to keep youth imprisoned while emphasising diversion over punishment.

Of more comfort to progressive voters, they have positioned themselves as firmly committed to keeping their abortion and voluntary assisted dying legislation intact. Labor will also continue the transition to renewable energy.

Disenchantment with the major parties

Despite their efforts, or perhaps because of Crisafulli’s disciplined messaging, it doesn’t look as if voters have been swayed to keep the government. There’s a clear mood for change.

However, it should be noted this isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of Crisafulli or the LNP’s whole agenda, as opinion polls show neither is particularly popular.

After trailing for most of the campaign, Miles is still behind, but has made up a lot of ground in the past week.

Whoever wins, they will have to govern in an era when more people are disenchanted with the mainstream parties.

Among those vying to hold or increase their crossbench seats in regional Queensland are the socially conservative Katter’s Australian Party, as well as some popular local mayors running as independents.

Meanwhile, the Greens are pushing to claim more Brisbane seats.

The minor parties are campaigning hard on persistent problems in housing, cost of living, health and crime. These are all hard to solve quickly and not necessarily helped by rushed responses.

The next parliament will have to find a way to represent a state divided in public opinion between those in the city and those in regional areas across all of the key issues.

Pandanus Petter receives funding from the Australian Research Council to study public opinion polling, democratic responsiveness and the idea of ‘the Fair Go’ in public policy.

ref. Labor looks set for a resounding defeat in Queensland. But the state’s elections have long thrown up surprises – https://theconversation.com/labor-looks-set-for-a-resounding-defeat-in-queensland-but-the-states-elections-have-long-thrown-up-surprises-241774

Are cats good for our health?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Hazel, Associate Professor, School of Animal and Veterinary Science, University of Adelaide

Yerlin Matu/Unsplash

Cats have lived with humans for thousands of years. And long before cat memes and viral TikToks took over the internet, they’ve been comforting us with their purrs and making us laugh with their weird antics.

But what does the research say – are cats good for us?

Living with a cat can have a profound – and sometimes surprising – effect on our physical and mental health. Still, living with cats is not without risks.

Part of the family

You may have heard cats don’t have owners, they have “staff”. In fact, multiple studies show the humans who live with them feel more like beloved relatives.

In a study of 1,800 Dutch cat owners, half said their cat was family. One in three viewed their cat as a child or best friend and found them loyal, supportive and empathetic.

Another US study developed a “family bondedness” scale and found cats were just as important a part of families as dogs.




Read more:
Is owning a dog good for your health?


Many cats would choose human interaction over food or toys. And they can distinguish when we are talking to them (rather than another human).

In fact we’ve adapted to each other. Cats are more likely to approach human strangers who first give a “kitty kiss” – narrowing your eyes and blinking slowly. And research suggests cats have developed specific meows that tune into our nurturing instincts.

What does this close relationship mean for health outcomes?

Cats slow blink when they’re feeling relaxed.
beton studio/Shutterstock

A sense of purpose

Owning a pet is associated with less social isolation. And some cat owners say “providing for the cat” increases their feelings of enjoyment and sense of purpose.

But the benefits of the relationship may depend on how you relate to your cat.

One study looked at different relationship styles between humans and cats, including “remote”, “casual” and “co-dependent”. It found people whose relationship with their cat was co-dependent or like a friend had a higher emotional connection to their pet.

Links to heart health

People who own – or have owned – a cat have a lower risk of dying from cardiovascular diseases such as stroke or heart disease. This result has been repeated in several studies.

However a problem interpreting population studies is they only tell us about an association. This means while people with cats have lower risk of dying from cardiovascular diseases, we can’t say for sure cats are the cause.

People who own a cat – or have in the past – are at lower risk of stroke and heart disease.
Ruth McHugh-Dillon, CC BY-NC

Cat ownership has also been associated with some positive changes in the gut microbiota, especially in women, such as improved blood glucose control and reduced inflammation.

Helping mental health

Having cat or dog is also associated with higher psychological well-being. For people with depression, patting or playing with their cat has been shown to reduce symptoms (although this was over a short, two-hour period and can’t be extrapolated longer-term).

Another way to find out about the health impact of cats is qualitative research: asking people what their cats mean to them, beyond the numbers.

When colleagues and I surveyed veterans, we found people more attached to their pets actually had poorer mental health scores. But their survey responses told a different story. One respondent said, “my cats are the reason I get up in the morning”.

Another wrote:

I consider my pet to be a service animal. My cat helps me to relax when I’m dealing with my anxiety, depression or when I wake during the night from the frequent nightmares I have. My cat isn’t just a pet to me, my cat is a part of me, my cat is part of my family.

It may be that veterans were more attached to their cats because they had worse mental health – and relied on their cats more for comfort – rather than the other way around.

Mental health downsides

It is possible being attached to your cat has downsides. If your cat becomes sick, the burden of caring for them may have a negative impact on your mental health.

In our study of owners whose cats had epilepsy, around one third experienced a clinical level of burden as caregivers that was likely to interfere with their day-to-day functioning.

People with depression report reduced symptoms after playing with their cat.
Artacke Pictures/Shutterstock

Toxoplasmosis

Cats can also carry zoonotic diseases, which are infections which spread from animals to humans.

They are the main host for toxoplasmosis, a parasite excreted in cat faeces which can affect other mammals, including humans. The parasite is more likely to be carried by feral cats that hunt for their food than domestic cats.

Most people have mild symptoms that may be similar to flu. But infection during pregnancy can lead to miscarriage or stillbirth, or cause problems for the baby including blindness and seizures.

Pregnant women and people with lowered immunity are most at risk. It is recommended these groups don’t empty cat litter trays, or use gloves if they have to. Changing the litter tray daily prevents the parasite reaching a stage that could infect people.

Allergies

Up to one in five people have an allergy to cats and this is increasing.

When cats lick their fur, their saliva deposits an allergen. When their fur and dander (flakes of skin) come loose, it can set off an allergic reaction.

People without severe allergies can still live with cats if they regularly wash their hands, clean surfaces and vacuum to eliminate dander. They can also exclude cats from areas they want to be allergen-free, such as bedrooms.

People with allergies can live with cats if their symptoms aren’t severe.
Ruth McHugh-Dillon, CC BY-NC

While cats can provoke allergic reactions, there is also evidence contact with cats can have a protective role in preventing asthma and allergic reactions developing. This is because exposure may modify the immune system, making it less likely allergic reactions will occur.

Susan Hazel is affiliated with the Dog & Cat Management Board of South Australia, Animal Therapies Ltd and the RSPCA South Australia.

ref. Are cats good for our health? – https://theconversation.com/are-cats-good-for-our-health-238993

No home left behind: a postcode approach to electrification

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gill Armstrong, Researcher in architecture and urban planning, Climateworks Centre

EndeavourEnergy

In Australia and overseas, it’s clear that homes without gas – running on clean energy – are healthier, have cheaper power bills, and produce lower greenhouse emissions.

The emissions part is crucial. Collectively, homes are responsible for 10% of Australia’s greenhouse emissions. But how do we get Australia’s 11 million homes to ditch gas and switch to electricity for cooking, hot water and home heating?

The current approach is slow and piecemeal. State and local governments offer incentives to individual households, but few adopt them. For those that do, little coordinated support and guidance is available. The households must deal with suppliers and tradies on their own, which can be a frustrating and lonely process.

A pilot project to electrify 500 homes in a single postcode south of Sydney could show a better way. After a two-year campaign by residents, “Electrify 2515” has won A$5.4 million in federal funding, along with industry support. Challenges remain, but this pilot promises to demonstrate how household electrification can be accelerated and coordinated at scale.

As independent climate transitions specialists within Monash University, Climateworks Centre has no direct involvement in this project. But our ongoing Renovation Pathways Program focuses on ways to decarbonise Australia’s existing houses and bring about a national renovation wave. So we are watching with keen interest.

Testing extra incentives

The 2515 postcode sits between Wollongong and Sydney in New South Wales. It covers the suburbs of Austinmer, Clifton, Coledale, Scarborough, Thirroul and Wombarra.

The pilot encourages households to retire three types of gas appliance: water heaters, space heaters and cookers. Financial subsidies of up to $1,000 off electric hot water systems, reverse-cycle air conditioners and induction cooktops, and up to $1,500 off home batteries, are available. Higher subsidies are available to low-income households.

Successful applicants receive the subsidies as a discount on the purchase price of these new electrical appliances, rather than a rebate. Money for this is coming from the federal government’s Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA).

Such incentives prompt households within a single community to make the switch together, retiring their electric appliances before their gas appliances fail or break, speeding up the transition.

A fully subsidised smart energy device, valued at around $1,500, is also installed in every home to track and optimise energy use. Subsidies are also available for upgrades to switchboards where required to meet modern safety standards.

Rooftop solar and electric vehicle chargers can also be purchased through the pilot, but will not be subsidised.

How it works.
Electrify 2515

The 2515 difference

2515 is not the first community to rally behind clean energy. Grassroots initiatives are scattered around the country, such as in Yackandandah in northeast Victoria, Parkes in central west NSW, and Broken Hill in far west NSW.

Home energy pilot projects are also already underway through the Cooperative Research Centre Race2030, which partners with industry and research institutions. But these initiatives, along with those at a state and local government level, tend to recruit individual households across a wider geographic area.

In contrast, Electrify 2515 offers holistic support for households within a community. It is not driven by a single government program, or by a gas supply problem – which was the case for the people of Esperance in Western Australia.

By electrifying 500 homes in a single community, Electrify 2515 will provide a tangible measure of what’s required to drive rapid household electrification. The main challenge isn’t technological – it’s social. The technology is here. Getting the social drivers and settings right, at scale, is the key.

The holistic approach will demonstrate what consumers need to make the shift from gas to electricity. This includes what conversations are needed and which incentives enable all households to act in a coordinated way.

Local 2515 residents explain why everyone should join them in applying for the Electrify 2515 Community Pilot.

The bright side of a community approach

The whole-of-community focus brings technical and financial advantages.

After completing an application form and receiving an offer, households receive guidance and support from the installation partner Brighte, a commercial company that provides consumer loans for clean energy appliances such as solar panels and batteries. The service streamlines the decision-making process, which is often the biggest barrier stopping households from progressing with electrification.

Being able to work with a larger number of homes at once is likely to streamline and scale up installation with dedicated teams of installers and tradespeople.

It also helps build households’ trust in literature about payback times and financial benefits through friendly neighbourhood conversations and, importantly, through access to local real-world evidence, not just theory.

Thermal efficiency is also key

The electrification pilot is a solid starting point, especially for a community in a relatively mild coastal climate such as postcode 2515.

For homes in more extreme climates, or for inefficient older homes – which a lot of Australia’s homes sadly are – the fundamental thermal efficiency of the building must be improved alongside electrification of appliances.

The thermal efficiency of homes can be improved by insulating ceilings, walls and floors, double-glazing windows and sealing gaps. These measures make a home more comfortable for occupants. They can also reduce peak demand on the energy network and save on household energy bills.

Electrify 2515 currently focuses on appliance upgrades but adding thermal efficiency upgrades could take it to the next level. Without these upgrades, there is a risk of households in harsher climates using more electricity in a heatwave if homes are draughty and inefficient.

There are various ways to upgrade a home’s capacity to stay cool in summer and warm in winter.
Climateworks Centre, 2023, Climate-ready homes: Building the case for a renovation wave in Australia.

When paired with electrification, thermal upgrades could save Australian households around $2,200 annually on their energy bills (based on 2023 gas and electricity prices), according to Climateworks Centre analysis.

Projects like Electrify 2515 should include both home thermal efficiency improvements and electrification efforts, particularly for communities in harsher climates in order to maximise benefits to households.

Electrification challenges

Electrify 2515 caters for low-income households, by offering higher subsidies to households in the lowest 25% income percentile to ensure these groups comprise 25% of community buy-in.

Renters are encouraged to put their hand up too. But it may still be challenging to encourage their landlords to invest in upgrades.

Further challenges include decarbonising homes that cannot generate electricity from rooftop solar panels due to being shaded by taller buildings or trees. This can sometimes be an issue for homes in colder winter climates with higher annual energy demands, such as Victoria, Tasmania and the ACT.

Building momentum for widescale rollout

The technology for all-electric homes exists. Now we must identify the key social drivers and settings required to spur Australia’s electrification wave.

Electrify 2515 is a promising approach. It’s a way to build momentum, showcase technology at scale, and prompt meaningful discussions around the benefits and challenges of getting off gas.

This program, and others like it, can provide a tangible real-world foundation to bring about bills savings, emissions reductions and healthier homes across Australia. And it will help ensure no one is left behind.

Climateworks Centre is a part of Monash University. It receives funding from a range of external sources including philanthropy, governments and businesses.

ref. No home left behind: a postcode approach to electrification – https://theconversation.com/no-home-left-behind-a-postcode-approach-to-electrification-241471

Rebuilding homes after a disaster is an opportunity to build back better – why isn’t the insurance industry on board?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Antonia Settle, Lecturer, Monash University

For many Australians, 2022 was a dark and devastating year. Major floods wreaked havoc on hundreds of communities in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania. But for some, the floods themselves were only half the disaster.

As a recent report by Financial Counselling Victoria showed, many affected households had their insurance claims rejected or diminished, whether due to complicated exclusion clauses or because their “sum insured” had been whittled away by unexpected costs.

A long parliamentary inquiry sought to examine the insurance industry’s response to this disaster. Its final report – released to little fanfare last Friday – revealed a sector in crisis.

The report put forward 86 recommendations, which taken together could deliver real progress in pushing the insurance sector to deliver on its promises.

Some standout areas of focus included abolishing a principle called “like-for-like reinstatement” and increasing accountability and oversight. Making sure households can rely on their own coverage is a vital step.

But the report also highlighted just how vulnerable Australia’s housing stock is to climate change, which is no easy problem to solve.




Read more:
How extreme weather and costs of housing and insurance trap some households in a vicious cycle


Forced to repeat the same mistakes

To address the challenge of rising climate risk, we need to increase the resilience of Australian homes. Insurance will only be affordable if risk exposure can be brought down.

Recommendation 26 of the inquiry’s final report deals with the principle of “like-for-like reinstatement”. Written into many policies, this protects insurers from having to pay for home improvements in an insurance claim – known as “betterment” in insurance jargon.

‘Like-for-like’ rules can prevent households from improving their disaster resilience when rebuilding.
Anna Mente/Shutterstock

The underlying idea is to stop households sneaking an extra en-suite bathroom into their insurer-funded rebuild. The same dimensions and building materials have to be used.

But this can mean a home that has been flooded ends up being rebuilt with exactly the same flood risk.

This was the experience of Madeleine Serle, whose home was flooded in Melbourne in 2022. She told me she had asked her insurer to rebuild using polished concrete floors in the downstairs rooms of her home, instead of the plasterboard and wood that had soaked up the floodwaters. Serle reasoned that if it flooded again, it wouldn’t cause so much damage.

Her insurer refused. Even when Serle offered to pay any extra costs herself that might arise from concrete flooring, her insurer insisted on a “like-for-like reinstatement”. This meant using the same low-resilience materials that will likely be destroyed if inundated again by floodwater.

Bringing ‘betterment’ to the fore

Serle was actively trying to reduce her future flood risk, but this was precluded by the terms of her insurance contract.

By seeking an end to like-for-like reinstatement, recommendation 26 is pushing for “betterment” to be brought to the forefront of how we think about insurer rebuilds.

It proposes allowing households to swap out size for quality in an insurer rebuild. That could allow them to use the money saved from reducing the footprint of their home on resilience measures, which are often much more expensive.

This wouldn’t just reduce their exposure to climate risks – fire, flooding and so on. It could also improve the energy efficiency of our houses, which is another key part of the climate challenge in Australia.

Standardised products

Many of the report’s other recommendations centred on the better handling of claims and better outcomes for households.

This includes by strengthening accountability through stronger regulatory oversight (recommendations 2, 4, 9, 41, 47, 49), tightening up some key loopholes (recommendations 3, 10, 13), and penalising insurers for delays in the resolution of claims (recommendations 19 and 57).

It also laid out ways to improve communications between insurers and households (recommendations 6, 10, 24, 25, 28, 33), so people can better understand what they should expect from their insurer – and when their insurer might be falling short.

These proposed reforms aim to create more standardised insurance products across the industry. But they could have gone further. The report didn’t go as far as recommending a fully standardised insurance product that all insurers would have to offer.

Making insurance products more standardised could make them easier to compare.
DC Studio/Shutterstock

As the Financial Rights Legal Centre has argued, standardisation is vital to untangling the “confusopoly” that leaves households unable to make informed decisions about the merits of different policies on the market without reading reams of product disclosure statements.

Reform alone isn’t enough

The inquiry’s final report recommends the government buy back some of the riskiest homes (recommendation 81), alongside much stronger government support for households looking to mitigate their own risks.

But insurance reform alone isn’t enough to solve the problem that Australian households face in securing their housing amid worsening climate risk.

The bigger overarching problem faced by Australia is one of climate change mitigation and adaption. While our country is exposed to relatively high levels of climate risk, much of this risk is borne by individuals through home ownership.

With nearly half of all renter retirees living in poverty, Australians know owning their own home is a powerful way to secure their economic future. That’s why home ownership is referred to as part of the “third pillar” of the retirement income system (voluntary private savings), along with superannuation and the public pension.

Reforming our insurance system can make important strides in providing households with better tools to manage climate risk.

Only with stronger safety nets, and by grappling with risks at the societal level, can we counteract the extreme individualisation of climate risk that we experience here in Australia.




Read more:
Some New Zealand homes are becoming uninsurable because of natural disasters – but all may not be lost


Antonia Settle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Rebuilding homes after a disaster is an opportunity to build back better – why isn’t the insurance industry on board? – https://theconversation.com/rebuilding-homes-after-a-disaster-is-an-opportunity-to-build-back-better-why-isnt-the-insurance-industry-on-board-241576

‘They do not respect our land. They do not respect our people’. Brazil’s traditional people take on BHP in one of the world’s biggest class actions

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ebony Birchall, Lecturer, Law School, Macquarie University

Australian mining giant BHP is at the centre of one of the world’s largest class actions, the trial for which started this week in London.

The Fundão Dam in Mariana, Brazil, co-owned by BHP, collapsed in 2015 spilling a gigantic wave of toxic mud across 700 kilometres of land. Nineteen people were killed, villages and livestock wiped out, vast areas of land rendered uninhabitable and rivers and water supplies contaminated.

Corporate accountability

The class action has renewed questions about the responsibilities multibillion-dollar corporations have to local communities.

Leaders of the traditional people groups impacted by the disaster visited Australia with their lawyer Tom Goodhead from international legal firm Pogust Goodhead to raise awareness of the case two weeks ago.

Goodhead told a public forum at Macquarie University this was a case of corporate negligence and putting profit before safety. He said the operators were warned of the risk of dam collapse and continued to push operations beyond what was safe.

The class action is brought on behalf of more than 600,000 claimants. The trial is expected to run for 12 weeks and will be heard in the UK, because this is where BHP was headquartered at the time of the disaster.

The UK courts will apply the Brazilian laws, which say environmental polluters must pay for the damage they cause.

Can BHP fix this?

The claimants’ lawyers say the case is valued at more than A$68.8 billion. The figure is based on an estimation of the impact of the disaster on land, culture and sacred places, as well as some form of recompense for the lost lives.

Maycon Krenak, one of the Krenak chiefs, explained:

[the] river has always been there for us to guarantee our livelihoods. It is a sacred space for us. The river is where we carry out our sacred practices. That’s where we sing, where we dance, where we gather. The new leaders, [our] children, have to learn how to swim in a water tank of a thousand litres.

BHP is reported as saying its Renova Foundation, established in 2016, has spent more than A$11.5 billion to compensate victims and remediate the environment.

But Thatiele Monic, president of the Vila Santa Efigênia and Adjacências Quilombola Association said the victims don’t trust the foundation.

In the same way that the mining company invades our land, the Renova Foundation also is invading our space and our territories. They do not respect our land. They do not respect our people, and they are creating more and more conflict. So that people are essentially giving up pursuing this.

Poor human rights record

Australian corporations operating overseas have a poor record on human rights.

Two weeks ago, a preliminary report of the Panguna Mine Legacy Impact Assessment uncovered human rights violations, including risks to life, at Rio Tinto’s abandoned Panguna mine in Bougainville, Papua New Guinea.

The gold and copper mine triggered a brutal civil war between 1988 and 1998. Despite decades passing since the mine was decommissioned, the recent report confirms the mine continues to pose risks to life and safety due to the collapsing mine and ongoing contamination down rivers and into new areas.

Australian mining corporations have also been linked to death and destruction in their operations in Africa.

Corporate activities within Australia have impacted our own Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples. For example, Rio Tinto’s explosion at Juukan Gorge destroyed sites of cultural significance dating more than 46,000 years.

Where Australia stands

The Australian government has endorsed the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights and the OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises both of which outline corporations’ human rights obligations.

The UNGPs say states should set out clearly the expectation that corporations in their jurisdiction respect human rights in all their operations – even those occurring overseas.

The Human Rights Law Centre found in a 2018 report on this topic that the Australian government was not doing enough to hold corporations to account.

It found Australian corporations operating overseas did so with impunity. Efforts to seek justice locally is often thwarted by corruption, lack of resources or ineffective legal process. At the same time, attempts by overseas communities to take legal action in Australian courts face enormous hurdles and rarely succeed.

This is why cases like the class action for claimants in Mariana are crucial for corporate accountability.

In my 2023 report with colleagues Surya Deva and Justine Nolan, we found this kind of litigation can raise awareness, facilitate broader industry developments and shape laws and policy.

Our report also found litigation needs to be supported by strong regulatory responses from governments, and complementary advocacy like shareholder or consumer engagement.

Cost of litigation

Litigation comes with significant risks to victims and their allies.

In a controversial development for corporate accountability in Australia, oil and gas giant Santos is using legal processes to challenge environmental groups who supported traditional owners opposing their Barossa gas project. Santos’ tactics, if allowed to continue, could limit public interest litigation in the future.

Thatiele Monic ended her speech at the Macquarie University event with a question worth repeating

This has happened in Brazil, but it has happened in many other places, and if we don’t do anything about it, and we don’t talk about it, it will continue to happen in many more other places. This is not the future I want for myself and for my people. I’d like to know. What future do you want for yourselves?

The Conversation

Ebony Birchall is affiliated with Macquarie University’s B&HR Access to Justice Lab.

ref. ‘They do not respect our land. They do not respect our people’. Brazil’s traditional people take on BHP in one of the world’s biggest class actions – https://theconversation.com/they-do-not-respect-our-land-they-do-not-respect-our-people-brazils-traditional-people-take-on-bhp-in-one-of-the-worlds-biggest-class-actions-241777

The best government money can buy? How New Zealanders feel about political party funding

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mona Krewel, Senior Lecturer in Comparative Politics, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

Getty Images

Companies and shareholders associated with the government’s fast-track projects gave more than $500,000 in donations to National, ACT and New Zealand First, according to a recent analysis by RNZ.

While it is impossible to say whether these companies were listed for consideration because of their donations, allegations of possible “undue influence” are inevitably made.

New Zealand’s reputation as a country with little to no corruption owes nothing to our lack of rigour in the regulation of party donations. As Philippa Yasbek, the author of a report by the Helen Clark Foundation calling for tougher rules to combat the risk of political corruption, said:

Our political integrity and honesty have largely evolved from social norms over many decades. Politicians by and large knew the conduct that was expected of them by New Zealand society. Sadly, today, we’re naive to think that’s enough.

Some political parties seem to take little heed of the existing rules. The Electoral Commission has issued warnings to several parties about large donations being declared too late.

The Independent Electoral Review released early this year recommended parties give up access to corporate donations in exchange for greater public funding. Other recommendations included a cap on political donations set at NZ$30,000, and a much lower threshold for disclosing donors’ names.

As one might expect, the political parties disagree about how funding should be regulated, as their main income sources vary. Labour approves of the proposals, although analysis indicates its revenue streams would suffer most if such policies were in place.

ACT is strongly opposed to the principle of public funding, although there are already significant public funds supporting parliament and party advertising during election campaigns.

What New Zealanders think

But what about public opinion? Do people believe large donors have “undue influence”?

The latest New Zealand Election Study, conducted after the 2023 election, included a module of questions that give insights into New Zealanders’ attitudes to potential party funding reforms. The study is a representative sample of nearly 2,000 eligible voters.

What stands out? Many people answered “don’t know” to the questions – which is quite reasonable. The laws that regulate political party activity in New Zealand are complex and of little relevance to most.

Nonetheless, some clear messages emerge. In general, a near majority of people were concerned about the influence of “big interests”. When asked if they agreed with the statement “The New Zealand government is largely run by a few big interests”, 45% agreed and 27% disagreed.

Drilling deeper into the data, about 35% of business owners agreed, compared to just under half of people who don’t own a business.



Asked whether they believed donors exert “undue influence” on politicians, 43% agreed. Only 18% disagreed. Almost 40% had no opinion on this topic and either didn’t know or took a neutral position.

While Labour, Green and NZ First voters leaned heavily to “undue influence”, National and ACT voters were evenly divided between “undue” and “not undue”.

National voters also strongly opted for “don’t know”. About a third of business owners perceived undue influence, compared with about 45% of non-owners.



The 2023 Election Study also included a question on the recommendation made by the Electoral Review that corporate groups and trade unions should be prohibited from making direct donations to political parties: 53% supported this change, while only 17% opposed it.



The Independent Electoral Review also recommended a limit of $30,000 for any individual donation: 57% agreed, compared to 14% who disagreed. While support was strongest on the left and among New Zealand First voters, significant numbers of National and ACT voters also agreed (47% and 44%).



Finally, we asked for people’s views on anonymity of “promoter donations”. Promoters are people or groups registered to advertise during an election campaign for an issue, or for or against a political party. They can collect anonymous donations that are not subject to the same disclosure requirements as parties.

Only 14% of respondents believed in continued promoter donation anonymity on the basis of privacy, and 47% preferred greater transparency. Breaking this down by party vote, some National and ACT voters prefer transparency over privacy, although more were either neutral or answered “don’t know”.



Support for reform

These results show public perceptions of undue influence by donors are widespread. While these perceptions are strongest on the left, they also penetrate deeply into groups who vote for the parties on the right, and into the business community.

And while the political parties have conflicts of interest, there is significant support for the recommendations of the Independent Electoral review across party lines among the New Zealand public, and inside the business community.

Assuming political parties in a democracy should be responsive to voters’ concerns and demands, this should give them food for thought when it comes to potential party funding reform.


This article is based on our submission to the Justice Select Committee inquiry into the 2023 general election.


The Conversation

The New Zealand Election Study (NZES) has been funded by Te Herenga Waka-Victoria University of Wellington, the New Zealand Electoral Commission, the Gama Foundation, and the University of Auckland.

ref. The best government money can buy? How New Zealanders feel about political party funding – https://theconversation.com/the-best-government-money-can-buy-how-new-zealanders-feel-about-political-party-funding-241881

View from The Hill: We have bigger issues around freedom of speech than Lidia Thorpe’s noisy protest

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

King Charles – as the old-fashioned saying goes – didn’t come down in the last shower. He’s unlikely to have been fazed by the outburst from independent senator Lidia Thorpe, who disrupted Monday’s Parliament House reception for the royals.

And neither, frankly, should anyone else.

Thorpe, clad in a possum-skin cloak, shouted: “You are not our king.”

“You destroyed our land. Give us a treaty. We want a treaty in this country. You are a genocidalist.”

“You committed genocide against our people. Give us our land back. Give us what you stole from us – our bones, our skulls, our babies, our people.”

The conduct of Thorpe, who used to be with the Greens and is an outspoken advocate of ‘Blak sovereignty’, was rude, albeit absolutely in character. She acts up in the parliament regularly.

As a senator, Thorpe, who was escorted out of the Great Hall, still yelling, had the right to be at the reception. And it is not the only time a parliamentarian has created a fuss when a dignitary was visiting. In 2003, Greens senator Bob Brown shouted out during the address to the joint houses by US President George W. Bush.

While not at all condoning Thorpe’s exhibitionism, she wasn’t inciting violence. Was she bringing our parliament into disrepute? Sadly, many parliamentarians do that all the time in less dramatic ways, as visitors to question time will tell you.

Those muttering that perhaps there should be some parliamentary censure of Thorpe are misguided. As Senate Opposition leader Simon Birmingham pointed out on Tuesday, Thorpe “would probably revel in being censured by the Senate”. The one thing she wants is publicity.

Thorpe pushes her right to air her views to the limit, but her antics are not at the sharp end of the current “free speech” debate in this country. There are two, very different and much more important, fronts in that debate.

One relates to the pro-Palestine demonstrations. The other is the government’s attempt to crack down on misinformation and disinformation on digital platforms.

Those on the political right tend to play down worries about limiting free expression when it comes to the pro-Palestinian demonstrations. On the other hand, they are worried about putting more restrictions on the internet. Those on the left tend to support the battle against misinformation and disinformation on digital platforms, and are less worried about its free speech impact.

Increasing antisemitism has fuelled calls for the ubiquitous pro-Palestinian protests to be curbed in some way.

Critics highlight the hate preached on occasion; they say the demonstrations make Jewish Australians feel unsafe, disrupt citizens’ weekends, and are a drag on police resources.

What are the relevant rights here, and their comparative weights? The right to free expression and protest. The right to feel safe. The right for people to go about their business without undue inconvenience. The tradeoffs are much more complicated than any questions thrown up by Thorpe’s behaviour.

The number and regularity of the pro-Palestine demonstrations have driven some critics to argue enough is enough. That is not convincing, and nor is the argument that these protests soak up police resources. Unfortunately, these are the costs of preserving the right to protest.

Much more troubling is that these protests can foster hate and make people feel threatened in their own country. Here balances must be carefully struck, and that’s hard.

Incitement laws must be enforced. Beyond that, demonstrations have to be managed, so that the protesters’ right to have their say and the safety of others, especially a vulnerable section of the population, are both preserved.

So for example, it’s important university campuses can have protests (as they always have). But “encampments” on campuses have been properly condemned and should not be allowed.

Even more complex in the free speech debate is how to deal with disinformation (the deliberate spread of false information) and misinformation (where the misleading is not deliberate).

The government presently has a bill in parliament seeking to combat misinformation and disinformation on digital platforms. It is a reworked version of a much-attacked earlier draft.

In her second reading speech on the bill last month, Communications Minister Michelle Rowland said:

To protect freedom of speech, the bill [which does not apply to “professional news content”] sets a high threshold for the type of misinformation and disinformation that digital platforms must combat on their services – that is, it must be reasonably verifiable as false, misleading or deceptive and reasonably likely to cause or contribute to serious harm.

The harm must have significant and far-reaching consequences for Australian society, or severe consequences for an individual in Australia.

Among the “serious harms” in the bill is “harm to the operation or integrity of an electoral or referendum process in Australia”.

The struggle against misinformation and disinformation on digital platforms will always be a losing one. The reach is just too vast.

But more particularly, there is also the problem that what is “misinformation” and “disinformation” can be less clear than one might think. On occasion, what seems wrong at the time turns out to be correct later.

Beyond those obvious points, some material so-labelled is not one or the other but disputed information.

For example, proponents of the Voice have blamed its loss at least partly on misinformation and disinformation. However, much of this involved highly contested claims, especially about an unpredictable future.

What this legislation does is push as much responsibility as it can, backed by a regulatory framework, onto the platforms to do the censoring of misinformation and disinformation, thus trying to avoid constitutional issues of implied freedom of political communication.

Human rights lawyer Frank Brennan has written, “The real challenge for Minister Rowland is that debating such a detailed bill without the backstop of a constitutional or statutory bill of rights recognising the right to freedom of expression, there are no clear guard rails for getting the balance right for ‘the freedom of expression that is so fundamental to our democracy’.”

All things considered, It is hard to see the bill clearing its obstacle course before the election.

The Conversation

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. View from The Hill: We have bigger issues around freedom of speech than Lidia Thorpe’s noisy protest – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-we-have-bigger-issues-around-freedom-of-speech-than-lidia-thorpes-noisy-protest-241906

Huge volumes of whey go to waste. We could do much more with this nutrient rich liquid

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jack Hetherington, Phd Candidate in circular business models, University of Adelaide

Cheesemaking leaves large volumes of whey Lysenko Andrii/Shutterstock

Every year, 7.6 million tonnes of food is lost or wasted in Australia. When we think about this, we might picture mouldy fruit, stale bread and overly full fridges. But in fact, almost half of this waste happens before food ever gets to us. Waste is common in food production, processing and transportation.

For example, the process of making cheese from milk results in a comparatively small amount of cheese and a lot of whey – up to 90% the mass of the raw milk.

Whey is useful, as it still has about half the nutrients of milk. But whey remains one of the largest sources of food loss and waste in Australia’s large dairy sector. Every year, about 350 million litres goes down the drain, costing businesses over A$580 million to dispose of it and wasting some of the resources it takes to make milk.

In our new research, we interviewed cheesemakers from 42 companies – representing almost a third of Australia’s cheese industry.

We found cheesemakers knew what waste whey could be used for but were put off by practical challenges.

whey in tanks
Whey is produced in large volumes – and much of it goes to waste.
Jasen Wright/Shutterstock

What can you do with whey?

You can already buy whey products such as fermented drinks and protein powders. Infant formula may contain the highly valuable lactoferrin, which would be usually left in whey. A popular Swiss soft drink, Rivella, is also made from whey.

In Australia, some producers have begun making alcoholic spirits by fermenting the lactose in whey. Researchers have found whey-based alcohol can emit less greenhouse gases than traditional grains.

Our research found over half of our cheesemakers were using multiple methods to reduce whey going to waste, from making animal feed to making ricotta to irrigating paddocks. Even so, there is still room to make much more use of whey.

What did we find?

Every year, 43% of all milk produced in Australia is used to make cheese – about eight billion litres a year. When we did this research, there were 132 cheesemakers, using cow, goat, sheep, and camel milk to make cheese. The industry is characterised by a few large manufacturers (about 2% of companies) and many small manufacturers (about 90% of the total). Cheesemakers are largely concentrated in Australia’s southeast.

To understand the challenge of avoiding whey waste, we spoke to cheesemakers, big and small, right across Australia between November 2022 and June 2023.

All of our cheesemaker respondents knew of at least one whey-based product.

But there were barriers to using whey themselves by a range of things, from the set-up cost of a new facility to the challenge of scale, competing priorities and the distance to potential partners. As one respondent said:

Every single part of the business would have to be changed, upgraded, or increased to accommodate using the whey in any way

Another said:

We’re all doing 60 to 70-hour weeks and you [need] someone to actually drive it

How can we overcome the barriers?

Based on our interviews, we found four possible ways to encourage cheesemakers to put their whey to use:

  1. turning whey into value-added products in-house. This could be quite effective – one of our respondents reported making more money from whey-based products than cheese. But setting it up requires time and money.

  2. engaging other companies to take the waste. Partnering with outside companies can help overcome time and money issues – but everyone needs to agree on a price for a product previously considered waste.

  3. starting joint ventures, such as teaming up with other cheesemakers. This method suits cheesemakers wanting to keep the value of the whey. Successful ventures require clear leadership and transparent business plans.

  4. scaling up. Some cheesemakers are already using their own whey. If they move to accept whey from other makers, they can scale up – as long as the new whey sources can meet their specifications.

We found giving Australian cheesemakers the full range of options greatly increased how willing they were to find ways to use whey.

When they only had in-house options, 33% of respondents said they would find ways to use way. This rose to 79% when all four options were available.

cheese and whey, hands
Even once the cheese has been made, the whey left behind contains proteins and other nutrients.
guys_who_shoot/Shutterstock

Which whey forward?

Our research shows there’s no silver bullet to solve whey waste. We’ll have to come at it from different angles and focus on collaboration between cheesemakers, governments, industry bodies and consumers.

One crucial thing is to make sure there there is demand for these changes. In separate research, we found there is currently little expectation from consumers and retailers about what happens to whey waste. Increasing demand for whey-based products and setting expectations for cheesemaking practices could drive this change. But food safety regulations and taxes on alcohol can make it more challenging still for makers.

In regions with a cluster of cheesemakers, it might make more sense for one or two makers to take all the whey waste and turn it into value-added products to benefit from the scale. While many cheesemakers told us they felt isolated from potential partners, we found a potential partner was right around the corner – just one or two kilometres in most cases.

This is where decision support tools may be able to help in future. These software tools help you lay out your options so you can compare them and pick the best one. They can take into account financial outlay, risks and environmental impacts.

The good news is, there is an abundant, nutrient rich byproduct able to be converted into other products. The challenge now is to find ways of boosting collaboration between cheesemakers and other companies – and ensuring whey-based products have a market.

The Conversation

Jack Hetherington’s PhD project receives funding from the End Food Waste Cooperative Research Centre, CSIRO and the University of Adelaide. Jack is currently the Treasurer for the Landcare Association of South Australia and a member of the SA Crawford Fund committee.

Adam James Loch has received funding from the Australian Research Council, the South Australian Department for Environment and Water, and the European Commission.

Pablo Juliano does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Huge volumes of whey go to waste. We could do much more with this nutrient rich liquid – https://theconversation.com/huge-volumes-of-whey-go-to-waste-we-could-do-much-more-with-this-nutrient-rich-liquid-241588

From Camilla to the ‘ugly’ Elizabeth of Austria: a problematic history of obsessing over royal women’s looks

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Darius von Guttner Sporzynski, Historian, Australian Catholic University

Elizabeth of Austria and Casimir IV of Poland in the woodcut from the Łaski Statute. Archiwum Główne Akt Dawnych

Throughout history, queens have often been judged on their looks. Beauty standards shaped early-modern queenship. Even today, royal women such as the UK royal family’s Camilla, Catherine and Meghan are scrutinised for their looks, while their male counterparts aren’t held to the same standard.

One woman who faced particular scrutiny for her looks was Elizabeth of Austria (1436/37–1505). Known as the “mother of kings”, Elizabeth married Casimir IV of Poland and had 13 children, securing the Jagiellon dynasty’s future. Yet she is still remembered for her supposed lack of beauty.

This obsession with her appearance overlooks what really mattered for queens in her time: fertility, motherhood, political alliances and dynastic stability.

Beauty versus duty

Elizabeth was a powerful queen consort of Poland who played a significant role in European politics. Yet for centuries, she has been chiefly labelled as unattractive. This narrative likely began as early as 50 years after her death, with commentators focusing on her supposed ugliness.

But the foundation for these claims is shaky, at best. Medieval chroniclers, such as Jan Długosz, who documented the lives of Polish rulers and their families, made no mention of Elizabeth’s appearance.

This omission is significant as Długosz often commented on the beauty, or lack thereof, of other royal women. The absence of such remarks in Elizabeth’s case suggests her physical appearance was not a matter of public concern during her lifetime.

Later chroniclers such as Maciej of Miechów (1457–1523) and Marcin Bielski (1495–1575), who drew heavily from Długosz, also failed to comment on Elizabeth’s looks, further underscoring the lack of focus on her beauty.

In 1548, Polish nobleman Andrzej Górka alleged in a rhetorical speech that King Casimir IV was disappointed by Elizabeth’s appearance and considered breaking off their engagement. Górka claimed the king expressed doubts about the impending marriage because of Elizabeth’s lack of beauty – and the only thing that persuaded him to wed was a sense of duty.

However, Górka’s speech took place almost a century after the actual events. It was delivered in a political context where the goal was to influence Casimir’s grandson not to marry for love.

This saga mirrors a well-known English story involving Henry VIII and Anne of Cleves. In 1540, Henry, eager to meet his new bride, rode in disguise to surprise her. The meeting didn’t go as planned. Henry’s disappointment in Anne’s appearance became notorious and the marriage was speedily annulled.

Both of these stories reflect the pressure queens faced to meet idealistic beauty standards, often with serious consequences. Henry’s judgement of Anne based on her looks altered the course of their marriage and, by extension, future political alliances. His behaviour reinforced the idea that a queen’s worth was tied to her physical appearance, overshadowing her political or dynastic significance.

Elizabeth as the ‘ugly queen’

The primary role of a queen in early-modern Europe was to provide heirs and secure political alliances through marriage. Beauty was arguably not the most important factor.

This 1454 painting depicts the marriage of Elizabeth of Austria to Casimir IV of Poland.
Wikimedia

Elizabeth of Austria’s marriage to Casimir IV of Poland was about strengthening ties between the Habsburg and Jagiellon dynasties, not about physical attraction. Of Elizabeth’s 13 children, several went on to become kings and queens across Europe. Her ancestry and status as a mother were the basis of her political influence – far more valuable than her looks.

Around 1502, in anticipation of the birth of her grandchild, Elizabeth commissioned a treatise to provide practical advice on raising a future ruler. She believed a royal child should embody values, attitudes and behaviours befitting a future monarch.

However, as history shows, the perception of a queen’s beauty could still end up influencing her legacy. While Elizabeth’s contemporaries didn’t seem to care about her appearance, later generations did.

The myth of Elizabeth’s unattractiveness gained traction primarily after a 1973 investigation into the royal tombs at the Wawel Cathedral in Kraków. Skeletal remains identified as belonging to Elizabeth showed facial deformities, reinforcing the myth. However, there’s no solid proof these bones were even hers, and the findings have since been questioned.

Nonetheless, the idea that a queen had to be beautiful to be politically capable took hold over time. Even though Elizabeth helped secure the future of one of Europe’s most powerful dynasties, her legacy is clouded by a narrative focused on her appearance.

Royal beauty standards today

Royal women in the 21st century continue to be haunted by the same narratives that plagued Anne of Cleves and Elizabeth of Austria. Queen Camilla, for instance, has been criticised for her looks throughout her public life, especially in comparison to the late Princess Diana.

Kate Middleton and Meghan Markle also face intense media scrutiny over their appearance, with headlines dissecting everything from their fashion choices to their weight. Queen Mary of Denmark, Princess Charlene of Monaco and Queen Letizia of Spain face similar scrutiny.

Sure, queens were and are aware of this. Many even weaponised beauty, ritual and fashion for their own gain. Cleopatra did this to hold onto power in ancient Egypt, and Marie Antoinette to protect herself from the hostile French court.

A circa 1774 portrait of Marie Antoinette.
Marie Antoinette, with her extravagant dresses, became as renowned for her fashion as her scandalous behaviour.
British Museum, CC BY-NC-SA

Elizabeth I’s reign in England gave rise to a concept of “Elizabethan beauty”, characterised by pale skin and rosy lips and cheeks. And the late Elizabeth II understood the need to dress the part.

By reducing royal women to their looks – or framing them as fashion icons – we fail to reckon with their individual characters and influence in the world. Meanwhile, men such as King Charles, King Frederick of Denmark and King Felipe of Spain are more likely to be judged by their virility, actions and policies.

Should beauty really matter when it comes to royal women? Shouldn’t we be more interested in their contributions to history, politics and society?

It’s time to shift the conversation away from appearance and focus on what matters: the impact these women have on the world. Like their male counterparts, they are crucial figures in shaping history and politics, so we ought to think carefully about how we judge them.

The Conversation

Darius von Guttner Sporzynski receives funding from the National Science Centre, Poland as a partner investigator in the grant “Polish queen consorts in the 15th and 16th centuries as wives and mothers” (2021/43/B/HS3/01490).

Magdalena Biniaś-Szkopek receives funding from the National Science Centre, Poland, as the principal investigator in the grant “Polish queen consorts in the 15th and 16th centuries as wives and mothers” (2021/43/B/HS3/01490).

Robert Tomczak receives funding from the National Science Centre, Poland, as a post-doctoral fellow in the grant “Polish queen consorts in the 15th and 16th centuries as wives and mothers” (2021/43/B/HS3/01490).

ref. From Camilla to the ‘ugly’ Elizabeth of Austria: a problematic history of obsessing over royal women’s looks – https://theconversation.com/from-camilla-to-the-ugly-elizabeth-of-austria-a-problematic-history-of-obsessing-over-royal-womens-looks-241674

I have hay fever. How can I tell what I’m allergic to?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ryan Mead-Hunter, Senior lecturer, School of Population Health, Curtin University

Kaboompics.com/Pexels

When we think of spring we think of warming weather, birdsong and flowers. But for many people, this also means the return of their seasonal hay fever symptoms.

Around 24% of Australians get hay fever, with sneezing, a runny or blocked nose, and itchy or watery eyes the most common symptoms. In severe cases, this may impact sleep and concentration, or be linked to increased frequency of sinus infections.

The exact timing of the symptoms depends on your exposure to an allergen – the thing you’re allergic to. Those impacted by tree pollen (from plane trees or cypress pine, for example) may experience symptoms at different times of the year than those impacted by grass pollen (such as rye grass). This will also vary around the country.

In Perth, for example, tree pollen (cypress pine) is generally present in August to October, while grass pollen counts tend to be highest in October to November. Other cities and regions may have longer pollen seasons, which may extend further into summer.

Remind me, how does hay fever impact the body?

What we know colloquially as hay fever is called allergic rhinitis. Exposure to a specific allergen (or allergens) triggers an immune response in the body. This leads to inflammation and swelling of the tissue lining the nasal passages in the nose.

A range of allergens may trigger such a response: pollen (from trees, grass or weeds), dust mites, pet fur, dander, mould and some air pollutants.

Those with allergies that are only present for part of the year, such as pollen, experience what we call seasonal hay fever, while those with allergies that may be present at any time, such as dust mites and pet dander, experience perennial hay fever.

Getting a diagnosis

Many people with hay fever self-manage their symptoms by limiting exposure to allergens and using over-the-counter antihistamines and steroid nasal sprays.

But this may require assistance from your GP and confirmation that what you’re experiencing is hay fever. Your GP can assess your symptoms and medical history, provide a diagnosis, and help with treating and managing your symptoms.

Your GP may also be able help you identify potential allergens, based on when you experience symptoms and the environments to which you’re exposed.

If symptoms persist, your GP may suggest allergy testing. They may refer you to a specialist called an immunologist, to determine what particular allergen is causing your symptoms, using skin prick tests or blood tests. Tests typically involve controlled exposure to small quantities of suspected allergens.

But note, there are a number of tests marketed online that are unproven and not recommended by reputable bodies.

How else can I work out what I’m allergic to?

For those with seasonal hay fever, resources are available to help manage exposures, based on the flowering seasons for common allergy-related species or through pollen forecasting services.

The Australian Society of Clinical Immunology and Allergy provides a useful pollen guide for each species and when they’re most likely to cause symptoms, broken down for each state and territory.

Pollen monitoring and forecasting services – such as Perth Pollen, Melbourne Pollen and Sydney Pollen, as well as for other cities – can help you plan outdoor activities.

There are also associated phone apps for these services, which can give notifications when the pollen count is high. You can down load these apps (such as AirRater, Perth Pollen, Melbourne Pollen and Sydney Pollen) from your preferred app store.

Apps such as AirRater also allow you to enter information about your symptoms, which can then be matched to the environmental conditions at the time (pollen count, temperature, smoke, and so on).

Using statistical modelling, the app may be able to establish a link between symptoms and exposure. If a sufficiently high correlation is established, the app can send you notifications when the exposure risk is high. This may prompt you to limit outdoor activities and have any medication readily available.


Further information about managing allergic rhinitis is available from healthdirect and Allergy and Anaphylaxis Australia

Ryan Mead-Hunter receives funding from the Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA) and the NHMRC. He is part of the Perth Pollen team.

ref. I have hay fever. How can I tell what I’m allergic to? – https://theconversation.com/i-have-hay-fever-how-can-i-tell-what-im-allergic-to-240450

4,300 tonnes of space junk and rising: another satellite breakup adds to orbital debris woes

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sara Webb, Lecturer, Centre for Astrophysics and Supercomputing, Swinburne University of Technology

Intelsat

A large communications satellite has broken up in orbit, affecting users in Europe, Central Africa, the Middle East, Asia and Australia, and adding to the growing swarm of space junk clouding our planet’s neighbourhood.

The Intelsat 33e satellite provided broadband communication from a point some 35,000km above the Indian Ocean, in a geostationary orbit around the equator.

Initial reports on October 20 said Intelsat 33e had experienced a sudden power loss. Hours later, US Space Forces-Space confirmed the satellite appears to have broken up into at least 20 pieces.

So what happened? And is this a sign of things to come as more and more satellites head into orbit?

A space whodunnit

There are no confirmed reports about what caused the breakup of Intelsat 33e. However, it is not the first event of its kind.

In the past we’ve seen deliberate satellite destructions, accidental collisions, and loss of satellites due to increased solar activity.

What we do know is that Intelsat 33e has a history of issues while in orbit. Designed and manufactured by Boeing, the satellite was launched in August 2016.

In 2017, the satellite reached its desired orbit three months later than anticipated, due to a reported issue with its primary thruster, which controls its altitude and acceleration.

More propulsion troubles emerged when the satellite performed something called a station keeping activity, which keeps it at the right altitude. It was burning more fuel than expected, which meant its mission would end around 3.5 years early, in 2027. Intelsat lodged a US$78 million insurance claim as a result of these problems.

However, at the time of its breakup, the satellite was reportedly not insured.

Intelsat is investigating what went wrong, but we may never know exactly what caused the satellite to fragment. We do know another Intelsat satellite of the same model, a Boeing-built EpicNG 702 MP, failed in 2019.

More importantly, we can learn from the aftermath of the breakup: space junk.

30 blue whales of space junk

The amount of debris in orbit around Earth is increasing rapidly. The European Space Agency (ESA) estimates there are more than 40,000 pieces larger than 10cm in orbit, and more than 130,000,000 smaller than 1cm.

The total mass of human-made space objects in Earth orbit is some 13,000 tonnes. That’s about the same mass as 90 adult male blue whales. About one third of this mass is debris (4,300 tonnes), mostly in the form of leftover rocket bodies.

Tracking and identifying space debris is a challenging task. At higher altitudes, such as Intelsat 33e’s orbit around 35,000km up, we can only see objects above a certain size.

Visualisation of debris around the Earth.

One of the most concerning things about the loss of Intelsat 33e is that the breakup likely produced debris that is too small for us to see from ground level with current facilities.

The past few months have seen a string of uncontrolled breakups of decommissioned and abandoned objects in orbit.

In June, the RESURS-P1 satellite fractured in low Earth orbit (an altitude of around 470km), creating more than 100 trackable pieces of debris. This event also likely created many more pieces of debris too small to be tracked.

In July, another decommissioned satellite – the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) 5D-2 F8 spacecraft – broke up. In August, the upper stage of a Long March 6A (CZ-6A) rocket fragmented, creating at least 283 pieces of trackable debris, and potentially hundreds of thousands of untrackable fragments.

It is not yet known whether this most recent event will affect other objects in orbit. This is where continuous monitoring of the sky becomes vital, to understand these complex space debris environments.

Who is responsible?

When space debris is created, who is responsible for cleaning it up or monitoring it?

In principle, the country that launched the object into space has the burden of responsibility where fault can be proved. This was explored in the 1972 Convention of International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects.

In practice, there is often little accountability. The first fine over space debris was issued in 2023 by the US Federal Communications Commission.

It’s not clear whether a similar fine will be issued in the case of Intelsat 33e.

Looking ahead

As the human use of space accelerates, Earth orbit is growing increasingly crowded. To manage the hazards of orbital debris, we will need continuous monitoring and improved tracking technology alongside deliberate efforts to minimise the amount of debris.

Most satellites are much closer to Earth than Intelsat 33e. Often these low Earth orbit satellites can be safely brought down from orbit (or “de-orbited”) at the end of their missions without creating space debris, especially with a bit of forward planning.

In September, ESA’s Cluster 2 “Salsa” satellite was de-orbited with a targeted re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere, burning up safely.

Of course, the bigger the space object, the more debris it can produce. NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office calculated the International Space Station would produce more than 220 million debris fragments if it broke up in orbit, for example.

Accordingly, planning for de-orbiting of the station (ISS) at the end of its operational life in 2030 is now well underway, with the contract awarded to SpaceX.

The Conversation

Christopher Fluke works for Swinburne University of Technology. He has previously received funding from the SmartSat CRC, including funding to support a research collaboration with CGI Australia (Space, Defence and Intelligence). He is a member of the International Astronomical Union.

Sara Webb and Tallulah Waterson do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. 4,300 tonnes of space junk and rising: another satellite breakup adds to orbital debris woes – https://theconversation.com/4-300-tonnes-of-space-junk-and-rising-another-satellite-breakup-adds-to-orbital-debris-woes-241790

What’s at stake in elections in Georgia and Moldova this week: a stark choice between Russia and the West

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adam Simpson, Senior Lecturer, International Studies, University of South Australia

Two former Soviet republics have important elections this week that will likely be pivotal in their respective journeys toward tighter integration with the West against the backdrop of rising Russian influence and the Ukraine war.

What happens in Georgia and Moldova is being closely watched across the European Union and Moscow. Russia has invested heavily in trying to influence the outcomes of both elections. If it succeeds, this will be a cause of significant concern in other ex-Soviet states, as well as the West.

Moldova takes a tentative step towards the EU

On Sunday, Moldovans voted in the first round of their presidential election. A referendum was also on the ballot to amend the country’s Constitution to include an aspiration to join the EU.

Pre-election polls had suggested the referendum would easily pass and the popular pro-EU president, Maia Sandu, would be re-elected.

However, Russia launched a significant “propaganda blitz” ahead of the vote, including credible allegations of widespread vote buying, to undermine the electoral process.

Sandu won the first round comfortably, with over 42% of the vote, though not by enough to avoid a run-off on November 3. The country’s pro-Russia parties are now likely to coalesce behind the second-place candidate in an attempt to oust her.

The referendum, however, teetered on the edge of failure before narrowly passing by the tightest of margins.

Though Moldova’s negotiations with the EU were certain to continue under Sandu regardless of the outcome, the result was nonetheless concerning. It demonstrates the strength of Russia’s influence operations to destabilise a nation seen as key to security on the eastern boundaries of the EU and NATO.

Moldova has a 1,200-kilometre border with Ukraine in the east and borders Romania, an EU and NATO member, in the west.

Polling suggests a majority of Moldovans condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but a significant minority retain pro-Russian views.

Russia also has a history of interference in Moldova’s sovereignty.

Moldova declared independence in 1991 during the dissolution of the Soviet Union but Transnistria, a small part of the country along the border with Ukraine, was taken over by separatists in a military operation backed by Russian troops.

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe formally recognised Transnistria as Moldovan territory still occupied by Russia.

What’s at stake in Georgia?

On the day of Moldova’s vote, tens of thousands of pro-EU supporters staged a demonstration in Tblisi, Georgia’s capital, calling for their country to choose a pro-EU path in their own election

The Georgian Dream party has been in power since 2012 and while it remains nominally pro-EU, it has gradually shifted towards a more pro-Russia stance.

The Georgian Dream-dominated legislature recently passed an antidemocratic, Putinesque law that requires groups receiving at least 20% of their funding from overseas to register as “agents of foreign influence”. And earlier this month, it passed a sweeping anti-LGBTQ+ bill that bans same-sex marriages, adoption by same-sex couples and changing one’s gender on identity documents.

The EU suspended Georgia’s accession process after the foreign agents law was passed and has recently cancelled €121 million (A$196 million) in funding due to “democratic backsliding”. This month, the European Parliament also overwhelmingly adopted a resolution calling for a freeze on EU funding to Georgia until its undemocratic laws are repealed.

The opposition parties are now working together to try to remove Georgian Dream from power, support the re-election of the current pro-EU president and return the country to the road of rapid integration with the EU.

Polls show support for joining the EU remains very high at nearly 80%. However, as the Moldovan election demonstrates, this may not necessarily be reflected in the vote on election day.




Read more:
‘We do not want to be like Russia’: a first-hand account of Georgia’s fight for democracy


Russian interference

Russia has long meddled in its southern neighbour. After an invasion of Georgia in 2008, Russian troops supported two pro-Russian breakaway republics, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, as they had done in Transnistria.

Russia has now established military bases in both regions, as well as a new naval base in Abkhazia to serve as a permanent base for parts of Russia’s Black Sea fleet.

These incursions set the stage for Russia’s invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014. As the post-Soviet Baltic states have argued, the lack of an adequate response from the West to these invasions set the stage for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Georgians are understandably concerned that Russia may invade their country again. Polls suggest two-thirds of people support joining NATO.

There are concerns that Saturday’s election could also be tainted. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe issued a declaration earlier this month, saying there are “alarming reports” indicating the Russian-backed Georgian Dream party might be “preparing to steal” the election.

The report accused the ruling party of a “massive intimidation campaign” against opposition candidates and their supporters, including physical attacks. It also said the Central Election Commission has apparently been brought under the control of Georgian Dream.

The opposition and civil society groups claimed electoral fraud after the 2020 elections, which resulted in mass protests and a political crisis when the opposition boycotted parliament.

Why these elections matter

These elections in Georgia and Moldova are crucial for reinforcing democratic rights in vulnerable former Soviet states. Any outcome that shifts their trajectory towards Russia will likely result in increased repression of both minorities, including the LGTBQ+ community, and the political opposition.

Wins by pro-Russian candidates and parties – legitimate or otherwise – will also drive greater military and economic integration with Russia. Despite popular support in both countries for joining NATO, wins by Russian-backed candidates will likewise undermine support for Ukraine in its war with Russia.

While it looks like pro-EU results might have squeaked through in Moldova, the elections in Georgia are potentially more hazardous for European relations.

The stakes in both elections could not be higher.

The Conversation

Adam Simpson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. What’s at stake in elections in Georgia and Moldova this week: a stark choice between Russia and the West – https://theconversation.com/whats-at-stake-in-elections-in-georgia-and-moldova-this-week-a-stark-choice-between-russia-and-the-west-240675

Is it possible to have a fair jury trial anymore?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Arlie Loughnan, Professor of Criminal Law, University of Sydney

Shutterstock

The decades-long mystery about what happened to 19-year-old Amber Haigh made it to court in New South Wales earlier this year. Those accused of murdering Haigh were found not guilty.

Usually we don’t know precisely why someone was found guilty or not. But in this case, the reasons were given.

This is because the trial was “judge alone”: a trial without a jury. This means the judge decides on the factual questions as well as the legal ones. And as judges are required to give reasons for their decisions, we learned what was behind the verdict, something usually hidden by the “black box” of the jury room.

Judge alone trials are increasing in New South Wales. Moves are being made in some other Australian jurisdictions to increase access to judge alone trials.

While it’s only possible to hold a judge alone trial in certain circumstances, and there are small numbers of such trials relative to other trials, some lawyers and judges think these trials have advantages over those with a jury.

This is because jury trials face a lot of challenges. Some have pondered whether, in this media-saturated environment, there is such a thing as a fair jury trial. So what are these challenges, and where do they leave the time-honoured process?

What happens in a jury trial?

The criminal trial brings together knowledge of the facts that underpin the criminal charge. The task of the jury is to independently assess that knowledge as presented in the trial, and reach a conclusion about guilt to the criminal standard of proof: beyond reasonable doubt.

Crucially, lay people provide legitimacy to this process, as individuals drawn from all walks of life are engaged in the decision-making around the guilt of the accused.

The jury is therefore a fundamental part of our democracy.

The changing trial

For its legitimacy, the criminal trial traditionally relies on open justice, independent prosecutors and the lay jury (the “black box”), all overseen by the impartial umpire, the judge, and backed up by the appeal system.

But these aspects of the criminal trial are being challenged by changes occurring inside and outside the courtroom.

These challenges include high levels of media attention given to criminal justice matters.

Another is the questioning about the way public prosecutors are using their discretion in bringing charges against individuals. This is happening in NSW, ACT and Victoria.

There are also concerns about “junk science” being relied on Australian courtrooms. This is where unreliable or inaccurate expert evidence is introduced in trials.

Some legal bodies are also demanding a post-appeal criminal cases review commission to prevent wrongful convictions.

Added complexity

It is not just juries that must come to grips with complex evidence in criminal matters. Judges and lawyers are also required to grasp intricate scientific evidence, understand new areas of expertise, and get across changing practices of validating expert knowledge.

The difficulty of these tasks for judges and lawyers was on show in the two special inquiries into Kathleen Folbigg’s convictions for the murder of her children, held in 2019 and 2022–23. Rapid developments in genetic science, alongside other developments, came to cast doubt on the accuracy of Folbigg’s convictions. This was just a few years after the first inquiry concluded there was no reasonable doubt about her guilt.

The challenges facing criminal trials are one dimension of much wider social and political dynamics. News and information is produced and consumed differently now. People have differing degrees of respect for scientific knowledge and expertise. Trust in authority and institutions is low.

These factors come together in a perfect storm and pose existential questions about what criminal justice should look like now.

What does the future look like?

The future of criminal law and its institutions depends on their legitimacy. It’s legitimacy that gives courts the social license and power to proscribe conduct, prosecute crimes and authorise punishment. Juries are a vital piece of this picture.

Amid the changing environment, there are things we can do to improve jury trials and in turn, safeguard and enhance their legitimacy.

One is providing extremely careful instructions to juries to make sure jurors understand their tasks, and do not feel frustrated.

Another is introducing higher and better standards for expert evidence. Experts testifying in court need firm guidance, especially on their use of industry jargon, to decrease chances of wrongful convictions.

These sorts of changes might be coupled with changes in criminal laws, like enhancing laws of self-defence so they are more accessible to women in domestic violence situations.

Together, this would help to future-proof criminal law, ready to meet the challenges of coming years and decades that we are yet to detect.

The Conversation

Arlie Loughnan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Is it possible to have a fair jury trial anymore? – https://theconversation.com/is-it-possible-to-have-a-fair-jury-trial-anymore-239401

From Ancient Rome to Persia, eunuchs often led armies and were powerbrokers of the ancient world

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael B. Charles, Associate Professor, Management Discipline, Faculty of Business, Arts and Law, Southern Cross University

The person to the right of the haloed emperor is thought to be the eunuch Narses, a powerful Byzantine general. Bender235/Wikimedia

When people think of eunuchs, someone like Lord Varys from Game of Thrones often springs to mind. Chubby, obsequious and a flatterer, he is involved in court intrigues and manipulates people and events behind the scenes.

These traits oppose military prowess and valour endorsed by traditional models of masculinity across various times and cultures. According to those tropes, a eunuch’s weapon is the whisper, not the sword.

In reality, not every eunuch in the ancient world was a servile, cloistered being. In fact, eunuchs sometimes led armies on campaign, and were entrusted with high-level administrative tasks.

What was a eunuch?

A eunuch was someone whose testicles had been deliberately crushed or excised.

In Greek myth, Cronus (the father of Zeus) castrated his own father Uranus to overthrow his tyranny and become king of the Titans.

Greek historians reported castration as war punishment, and persistently linked the castration of young boys to sexual slavery.

The ancient Greek historian Herodotus stressed the demand for castrated boys at the court of the Persian kings. But the market for eunuchs was evidently larger than just the Persian court.

The Romans replicated the Greeks’ negative view of eunuchs. They are often portrayed in Roman texts as being in the company of “bad” emperors such as the supposedly cruel and narcissistic Domitian – even though he forbade the practice of making eunuchs.

The notion of the unmanly eunuch in antiquity was reinforced by Orientalist literature, which imagined ancient eunuchs in charge of something akin to a Turkish sultan’s harem. Unable to procreate, the eunuch is paradoxically surrounded by beautiful women, his in-between-ness granting him access to the psychological makeup of both genders.

Orientalism drew inspiration from historical accounts written after the Greco-Persian wars, which the Greeks won in 449 BCE. These accounts were written in the shadow of Alexander the Great’s conquest of the Near East (including areas such as modern-day Iraq, Iran and Syria), which was followed by the Roman hegemony.

Instead of critically evaluating the sources, colonial writers and their readers indulged in a world of fantasy where eunuchs offered a sensualised peek into the “secrets of the harem”.

In fact, a deeper look at the historical record reveals that eunuchs often occupied positions of great military power and civil authority.

Eunuchs as bodyguards, enforcers and governors

Cyrus, the first Persian king (590–529 BCE), praised eunuchs for their reliability. He insisted that gelded men, like gelded horses, are easier to control. He believed they made up for their lack of physical strength with their loyalty.

Cyrus may have owed his life to eunuchs, who played a role in saving him as a baby from a murderous plot by his grandfather.

The Greek historian Herodotus also reports that eunuch-bodyguards tried to protect, albeit unsuccessfully, the man on the Persian throne just before Darius the Great took power in 522 BCE (Darius contended that this man was not a real king but an imposter).

The historical record also mentions a Persian eunuch being in charge of a garrison at Gaza around 332 BCE.

The Egyptian pharaoh Amasis, who reigned in the sixth century BCE, also relied on eunuchs to recover fugitive slaves.

Eunuchs appeared in the courts of the Hittites and Assyrians (civilisations in modern-day Turkey and Iraq respectively) from the 13th century BCE.

Assyrian kings often appointed eunuchs as provincial governors. The Assyrian king Shamshi-Adad V (who ruled Assyria 824–811 BCE) praised his chief eunuch Mutarris-Ashur as “clever and experienced in battle”. Mutarris-Ashur led the Assyrian army on a military campaign to the Nairi lands in the Armenian Highlands.

King Ashurbanipal, who ruled the Neo-Assyrian Empire from 669 BCE to 631 BCE, sent his chief eunuch on missions against neighbouring Mannea (a kingdom in modern-day Iran) and the rebellious Gambulu tribe in ancient Babylonia.

This Assyrian  relief shows the head of a beardless royal attendant, possibly a eunuch. Eunuchs were key figures in the Assyrian court and palace.
This Assyrian relief shows the head of a beardless royal attendant, possibly a eunuch. Eunuchs were key figures in the Assyrian court.
The Metropolitan Museum of Art

Bagoas the eunuch

In the fourth century BCE, there was Bagoas, a Persian court eunuch who is sometimes conflated with a eunuch lover of Alexander the Great who had the same name. Bagoas became the second most important person in the Persian court, after the Persian king.

Bagoas had served in Persian king Artaxerxes III’s campaign against Egypt, and rose to the rank of Chiliarch (the leader of the royal infantry guard).

Bagoas developed a reputation as a kingmaker – he was instrumental in replacing Artaxerxes III with his son, Artaxerxes IV. He later poisoned Artaxerxes IV and installed as king Darius III, who was eventually defeated by Alexander the Great.

Bagoas had plotted to replace Darius too, but Darius outsmarted him; he forced Bagoas to drink the poison the latter had prepared for Darius to drink.

Eunuchs in Rome

Despite the bias of the Greco-Roman sources, including their suspicion of eastern cults that involved eunuch priests, eunuchs were important in Roman imperial service.

The emperor Claudius rewarded his eunuch Posides for his service during Rome’s invasion of Britain in 43 CE.

In 399 CE, the eunuch Eutropius became a powerful consul in Rome’s eastern empire under the emperor Arcadius. Some Romans, however, attacked the appointment of a semivir (half man) as consul as an abomination.

In early Christianity, the concept of becoming a eunuch for the kingdom of God acquired currency. According to some interpretations of the Bible, being a eunuch was connected to the virtues of chastity and celibacy.

By the sixth century CE, Byzantine eunuchs found themselves in charge of large armies. (What we now call the Byzantine Empire, or the Eastern Roman Empire, was known by its people as the Roman Empire until 1453 CE).

Narses was a eunuch and one of the Byzantine emperor Justinian’s great generals. He managed to recapture Italy, including Rome, from the Goths (a Germanic people who had invaded Italy).

Narses, possibly an Armenian by birth, was no armchair general. At the battle of Mons Lactarius (552 or 553 CE), Narses fought on foot with his fellow soldiers against the Goths. He encouraged his men to hang on against a brave enemy.

Despite the stereotypes, eunuchs clearly often played important roles in the ostensibly masculine world of strategic planning and combat.

This plurality of masculinities in the ancient Mediterranean world remains relevant to modern society as it challenges notions of a simple gender binary.

The Conversation

Eva Anagnostou-Laoutides receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Gerda Henkel Foundation.

Michael B. Charles does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. From Ancient Rome to Persia, eunuchs often led armies and were powerbrokers of the ancient world – https://theconversation.com/from-ancient-rome-to-persia-eunuchs-often-led-armies-and-were-powerbrokers-of-the-ancient-world-235957

With AI translation tools so powerful, what is the point of learning a language?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elba Ramirez, Senior Lecturer and Programme Leader BA International Studies, Auckland University of Technology

In the age of artificial intelligence (AI), foreign language learning can seem like it’s becoming obsolete. Why invest the time and effort to learn another language when technology can do it for you?

There are now translation tools to understand song lyrics, translate websites and to enable automated captions when watching foreign videos and movies. Our phones can instantly translate spoken words.

At the same time, foreign language programmes are closing at New Zealand and Australian universities.

But while technology can translate messages, it misses an important component of human communication – the cultural nuances behind the words.

So, while AI translation might bridge language barriers and promote communication because of its accessibility, it’s important to be clear about the benefits and challenges it presents. Merely relying on technology to translate between languages will ultimately lead to misunderstandings and a less rich human experience.

The rise of translation technology

Translation technology has rapidly grown since its emergence between the 1950s and 1960s. This progress was bolstered by the commercialisation of computer-assisted translation systems in the 1980s.

But recent advances in generative AI have led to significant breakthroughs in translation technologies.

Google Translate has dramatically changed since its launch in 2006. Initially developed as a limited statistical translation machine, it has evolved into a “portable interpreter”.

AI translation is useful in some circumstances. For example, helping teachers communicate with parents who speak a different language, or when travelling.

Translation technology may even play a role in the preservation of Indigenous and minority languages on the verge of disappearing by supporting online collections of literature. Incorporating AI-powered technology in these digital libraries can help users access and understand these texts.

But the new technology also comes with limitations.

In 2019, staff at an Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention centre in the United States used AI translation to process an asylum application. The voice-translation tool was unable to understand an applicant’s regional accent or dialect, leading to the asylum seeker spending six months in detention without being able to meaningfully communicate with anyone.

In 2021, a court in the US determined Google Translate wasn’t reliable enough to ensure someone’s consent. A trooper had used the translation app to ask a Spanish-speaking suspect if he could search her car. Google Translate used the word “registrar” (which translates as “register” but can be used to say “examine”) when, in fact, the word “buscar” (to search) would have been more appropriate.

Brain health and other benefits

Learning additional languages also stands out as one of the best ways to improve ourselves, with benefits for brain health, social skills, cultural understanding, empathy and career opportunities.

An analysis of studies from 2012 to 2019 found speaking more than one language can enhance the brain’s flexibility, delay the onset of dementia, and improve cognitive health later in life. The analysis also recommended starting language learning early.

In 2022, the Council of Europe emphasised the significance of plurilingual and intercultural education for fostering democratic culture, noting its cognitive, linguistic and social benefits.

And this year, the council launched the “Language education at the heart of democracy” programme. The goal is to highlight the importance of learning language for a fairer society.

Lost in translation

In Aotearoa New Zealand, English is widely used. Te reo Māori and New Zealand Sign Language are also recognised as official languages. Some 29% of citizens are born overseas. There are more than 150 languages spoken, with at least 24 spoken by more than 10,000 people.

But interest in learning languages has fallen. In 2021, 980 full-time equivalent students studied a language other than Māori or New Zealand Sign Language at one of the country’s eight universities, falling from 1,555 less than a decade earlier.

As a consequence, a number of universities have closed, or announced plans to close, their language programmes.

While AI-powered translation technology has its uses, a great deal can be lost if we rely solely on it to communicate. The nuances of languages, and what they say about different cultures, are difficult to communicate via translation tools.

And the benefits of being bilingual or multilingual – both personally and for the wider community – risk being lost if we don’t support second language learning.

Elba Ramirez does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. With AI translation tools so powerful, what is the point of learning a language? – https://theconversation.com/with-ai-translation-tools-so-powerful-what-is-the-point-of-learning-a-language-238068

Promoted as a win-win, Australia’s Pacific island guest worker scheme is putting those workers at risk

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matt Withers, Senior Lecturer, School of Sociology, Australian National University

The Pacific Australia Labour Mobility Scheme (PALM) has been lauded by both sides of politics as a “win win” for the islanders who come here and the Australians who use their services.

Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs has even labelled it a “triple win”, for the workers, their hosts and for their home nations who receive remittances.

But beneath the surface serious questions are being asked about the safety of workers denied the right to leave their employers.

A report by the NSW Anti-slavery Commissioner entitled Be Our Guests has identified signs of debt bondage, deceptive recruiting, forced labour and, in extreme cases, servitude, sexual servitude and human trafficking.

The NSW parliament has launched its own inquiry into the risks faced by migrant workers in response and is seeking submissions.

Employment Minister Murray Watt this month signalled changes, saying there had been “far too many abuses of the PALM scheme”.

PALM allows rural and regional employers to hire workers from nine Pacific nations and Timor-Leste when there are not enough local workers available.

Unplanned pregnancies, sleeping rough

The workers hired do not have the right to change employers while in Australia, even for contracts of up to four years, except via a request from their original employer or a direction from the Department of Employment.

This means workers who abandon their employers for reasons including underpayment of wages, excessive deductions and overcharging for accommodation become absconders and lose their rights.

The NSW Modern Slavery Commissioner says there are several thousand absconded PALM workers in Australia, without access to health insurance and formal income. Among them are women with unplanned pregnancies denied antenatal care due to ineligibility for Medicare.

The Commissioner says crisis accommodation services in the NSW Riverina report having exhausted all available resources, including tents, for PALM workers who have left their employers and are sleeping rough.

Australia had 30,805 PALM workers at the end of August, one-third of them (11,420) in Queensland. Most work in farming (52%) and 39% in meat processing. The accommodation and care industries between them account for 6%.



For many of these workers, the income is life-changing. An I-Kiribati worker I interviewed recently told me she makes more money cleaning hotel rooms in Queensland than is paid to the president of her country.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade says between July 2018 to October 2022 PALM workers sent home a total of A$184 million, but their employers made profits of $289 million and charged them a further $74 million in rent.

Unable to switch employers, their bargaining power is weak.

An estimated 45 workers on the PALM scheme died between June 2022 and June 2023. Nineteen deaths remain under investigation.

After a Fijian abattoir worker died of a brain tumour in June, Fiji raised with Australia claims of racism, bullying, excessive workloads, unfair termination and unsafe working conditions under the program.

Minimum pay, but no right to move

Reforms introduced last year guaranteed workers a minimum of 30 hours per week and a minimum weekly take-home pay (after deductions) of $200.

But until PALM workers are able to move freely between approved employers they will remain at risk of what the president of the Australian Council of Trade Unions Michele O’Neil calls modern-day slavery.

O’Neil wants the government to blacklist bad employers and identify ethical ones in consultation with unions and civil society organisations. But she says until PALM workers can move, they risk being treated as disposable labour.

Many employers treat their PALM workers well, but the current design of the scheme leaves that outcome to chance, and leaves badly-treated workers trapped.

It’s time to give them the same sort of right to move between employers as the rest of us.

Matt Withers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Promoted as a win-win, Australia’s Pacific island guest worker scheme is putting those workers at risk – https://theconversation.com/promoted-as-a-win-win-australias-pacific-island-guest-worker-scheme-is-putting-those-workers-at-risk-240333

NZ is encouraging the use of AI – but it’s largely outsourcing the risks and societal costs

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nathan Cooper, Associate Professor of Law, University of Waikato

Getty Images

As investment in generative AI continues to grow globally, New Zealand’s government has been implementing its use across the public sector and encouraging businesses to embrace the technology’s potential.

But the environmental, social and governance risks and costs of AI remain under-investigated.

In particular, the energy-hungry computations generative AI requires mean an ever-expanding carbon footprint for this technology at a time when countries are expected to make more ambitious commitments to cut emissions at the upcoming United Nations climate summit (COP29) next month.

We argue that questions around AI’s environmental and social impact need to be part of the conversation about the role it should play in New Zealand society.

Societal costs and risks of AI

Currently, the global use of AI gobbles up as much energy as a small country. This rate is expected to double by 2026. Increasingly sophisticated AI is also projected to double the number of data centres in the next four years.

This ever-expanding reliance on data centres brings sustainability worries. The average data centre already uses about 40% of its power for cooling, often relying on local water supplies.

AI also brings social risks to employees and users. Its capabilities may result in job displacement and the wellbeing of staff who train AI could be affected if they are repeatedly exposed to harmful content.

Governance pitfalls include concerns about data privacy, breaches of copyright laws and AI hallucinations. The latter refers to outputs that sound right but are incorrect or irrelevant, but nevertheless affect decision making.

Why this matters for New Zealand

Like other countries, Aotearoa is rapidly adopting generative AI, from business to the courts, education and the work of government itself.

A recently announced collaboration between Microsoft and Spark Business Group means New Zealand will enter the hyperscale data centre trend. Hyperscale data centres allow for vast data processing and storage needs.

Once completed, a new hyperscale cloud region promises to enable New Zealand businesses to scale up locally, all powered by 100% carbon-free energy provided through an agreement with Ecotricity.

Data centres already use about 40% of their power for cooling.
Getty Images

For the moment, many of the environmental and social costs of New Zealand’s growing use are being borne elsewhere. The issue for New Zealand right now is one of global entanglement. Asking ChatGPT a question in New Zealand means relying on overseas data centres, using a lot of electricity from their municipal grid and likely their water for cooling.

Data centres are scattered across the world and many are located in developing countries. Even where data centres use renewable electricity sources, this diverts supply from other priorities, such as the electrification of public transport.

This is ethically problematic because other (often poorer) countries are shouldering the burden of New Zealand’s AI use. It may also be legally problematic. As a developed country and party to the Paris Agreement, New Zealand is committed to taking a lead in addressing climate change. This means setting progressively more ambitious emissions reduction targets (known as nationally determined contributions).

Last year’s United Nations global stocktake on climate action confirmed that countries’ total efforts are insufficient to limit temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. New Zealand’s contribution is also falling short.

The tension between increasing use of generative AI and meeting climate goals is one that climate change minister Simon Watts and his team will be wrestling with as they prepare for next month’s climate summit in Azerbaijan.

Lower and smarter use of technology

To press on with New Zealand’s commitment to address climate change, we need to focus on entangled solutions to deal with the growing environmental, social and governance costs of generative AI.

Digital sobriety” is a concept that encourages reduced technology use. It is one approach to thinking about the tensions between AI use and its escalating impacts.

This is similar to our approaches to reducing water consumption and waste. It also involves asking ourselves whether we really need the latest smart device or bigger data plans.

Another potential remedy is to scale down slightly and make use of small language models instead of data-hungrier large language models. These smaller versions use less computational power and are suitable for smaller devices.

Integrating sustainability into AI guardrails would also help to balance some of the environmental impacts of generative AI. Guardrails are filters or rules that sit between inputs and outputs of the AI to reduce the likelihood of errors or bias. Currently, these safeguards are mainly focused on fairness, transparency, accountability and safety.

As the Paris Agreement acknowledges, adopting sustainable patterns of consumption plays an important role in addressing climate change. Careful thinking now about how we adopt hyperscale generative AI in New Zealand in sustainable ways could help steer the country towards a more responsible relationship with this powerful and swiftly developing technology.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. NZ is encouraging the use of AI – but it’s largely outsourcing the risks and societal costs – https://theconversation.com/nz-is-encouraging-the-use-of-ai-but-its-largely-outsourcing-the-risks-and-societal-costs-240666

AI is set to transform science – but will we understand the results?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ehsan Nabavi, Senior Lecturer in Technology and Society, Responsible Innovation Lab, Australian National University

Artificial intelligence (AI) has taken centre stage in basic science. The five winners of the 2024 Nobel Prizes in Chemistry and Physics shared a common thread: AI.

Indeed, many scientists – including the Nobel committees – are celebrating AI as a force for transforming science.

As one of the laureates put it, AI’s potential for accelerating scientific discovery makes it “one of the most transformative technologies in human history”. But what will this transformation really mean for science?

AI promises to help scientists do more, faster, with less money. But it brings a host of new concerns, too – and if scientists rush ahead with AI adoption they risk transforming science into something that escapes public understanding and trust, and fails to meet the needs of society.

The illusions of understanding

Experts have already identified at least three illusions that can ensnare researchers using AI.

The first is the “illusion of explanatory depth”. Just because an AI model excels at predicting a phenomenon — like AlphaFold, which won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry for its predictions of protein structures — that doesn’t mean it can accurately explain it. Research in neuroscience has already shown that AI models designed for optimised prediction can lead to misleading conclusions about the underlying neurobiological mechanisms.

Second is the “illusion of exploratory breadth”. Scientists might think they are investigating all testable hypotheses in their exploratory research, when in fact they are only looking at a limited set of hypotheses that can be tested using AI.

Finally, the “illusion of objectivity”. Scientists may believe AI models are free from bias, or that they can account for all possible human biases. In reality, however, all AI models inevitably reflect the biases present in their training data and the intentions of their developers.

Cheaper and faster science

One of the main reasons for AI’s increasing appeal in science is its potential to produce more results, faster, and at a much lower cost.

An extreme example of this push is the “AI Scientist” machine recently developed by Sakana AI Labs. The company’s vision is to develop a “fully AI-driven system for automated scientific discovery”, where each idea can be turned into a full research paper for just US$15 – though critics said the system produced “endless scientific slop”.

Do we really want a future where research papers can be produced with just a few clicks, simply to “accelerate” the production of science? This risks inundating the scientific ecosystem with papers with no meaning and value, further straining an already overburdened peer-review system.

We might find ourselves in a world where science, as we once knew it, is buried under the noise of AI-generated content.

A lack of context

The rise of AI in science comes at a time when public trust in science and scientists is still fairly high , but we can’t take it for granted. Trust is complex and fragile.

As we learned during the COVID pandemic, calls to “trust the science” can fall short because scientific evidence and computational models are often contested, incomplete, or open to various interpretations.

However, the world faces any number of problems, such as climate change, biodiversity loss, and social inequality, that require public policies crafted with expert judgement. This judgement must also be sensitive to specific situations, gathering input from various disciplines and lived experiences that must be interpreted through the lens of local culture and values.

As an International Science Council report published last year argued, science must recognise nuance and context to rebuild public trust. Letting AI shape the future of science may undermine hard-won progress in this area.

If we allow AI to take the lead in scientific inquiry, we risk creating a monoculture of knowledge that prioritises the kinds of questions, methods, perspectives and experts best suited for AI.

This can move us away from the transdisciplinary approach essential for responsible AI, as well as the nuanced public reasoning and dialogue needed to tackle our social and environmental challenges.

A new social contract for science

As the 21st century began, some argued scientists had a renewed social contract in which scientists focus their talents on the most pressing issues of our time in exchange for public funding. The goal is to help society move toward a more sustainable biosphere – one that is ecologically sound, economically viable and socially just.

The rise of AI presents scientists with an opportunity not just to fulfil their responsibilities but to revitalise the contract itself. However, scientific communities will need to address some important questions about the use of AI first.

For example, is using AI in science a kind of “outsourcing” that could compromise the integrity of publicly funded work? How should this be handled?

What about the growing environmental footprint of AI? And how can researchers remain aligned with society’s expectations while integrating AI into the research pipeline?

The idea of transforming science with AI without first establishing this social contract risks putting the cart before the horse.

Letting AI shape our research priorities without input from diverse voices and disciplines can lead to a mismatch with what society actually needs and result in poorly allocated resources.

Science should benefit society as a whole. Scientists need to engage in real conversations about the future of AI within their community of practice and with research stakeholders. These discussions should address the dimensions of this renewed social contract, reflecting shared goals and values.

It’s time to actively explore the various futures that AI for science enables or blocks – and establish the necessary standards and guidelines to harness its potential responsibly.

Ehsan Nabavi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. AI is set to transform science – but will we understand the results? – https://theconversation.com/ai-is-set-to-transform-science-but-will-we-understand-the-results-241760

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