Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Birt, Associate Professor of Computer Games and Associate Dean Engagement, Bond University

The streaming wars are heating up. In March, Disney delayed the release date of Obi-Wan Kenobi to May 27 to coincide with the launch of Netflix’s top show, Stranger Things. This on the back of Google’s announcement YouTube Shorts had matched TikTok’s 1.5 billion subscribers in the short-form video market.

Facing increased competition, falling subscriber numbers and loss of content, Netflix and TikTok are having to diversify. And for this they’re turning to games. With more than three billion players worldwide, and an estimated market share of US$200 billion, the gaming industry is both popular and lucrative.

Netflix introduced mobile gaming last year for all its subscribers. This included two notable Stranger Things tie-ins. Meanwhile, TikTok has offered games to select users since 2019 and seems very likely to expand these offerings.

Retaining existing subscribers

Both Netflix and TikTok have transformed the entertainment business.

They appear diametrically opposed on the surface. The former gets revenue from subscriptions, and spends millions of dollars on licensing or creating content. The latter makes money by linking viewers to advertisers, with the help of streaming “influencers” who have mastered the art of short-form video.

However, the two platforms share some key characteristics. They both:

1. deliver video content via the internet
2. aim to constantly grow their user base
3. benefit from unique and original content
4. collect user data and use it to improve their services, and
5. face considerable and rising competition from other companies and entertainment media.

Many well-loved films and television series are departing Netflix for competitor platforms. At the same time, TikTok is also losing short-form video influencers to other platforms. Both platforms are seeking new strategies for subscriber retention, growth, and original content.

This is where gaming comes in. According to one consumer insights report, 79% of the world’s online population engages with games in some form. And millennials rate gaming as either the most popular, or second-most popular entertainment activity – behind watching other people play games on video platforms.

Why is gaming an attractive space?

Games typically afford longer engagement periods than series or movies. This is due to the psychological principles of motivation that underpin most gameplay.

People invested in games will often seek out additional narrative (or “lore”) in the form of shows and movies. Alternatively, audiences invested in shows may also look to video games to provide alternative narratives and opportunities for world-building. So shows lead customers to games, and games keep them engaged between season releases.

This technique of telling a story across multiple platforms and formats is known as “transmedia storytelling” and has been used with great success by broadcast, social media and gaming companies. This is what platforms are banking on to keep audiences locked into their entertainment ecosystems.

Content creation has boomed since the pandemic, and younger audiences are spending more time than ever watching user-generated content online. They have been particularly tuned into games such as Crab Game (a fan-made version of the popular Netflix show Squid Game) – which also has millions of view hours on the streaming service Twitch.

The rise of Minecraft as a popular “modding” game (in which players can collectively transform the game space through their own modifications) has also helped video streaming and subscription services. Minecraft-related videos have been streamed more than one trillion times on YouTube.

Transmedia success provides additional avenues for companies looking to leverage their licensed or original copyrighted content.

Intellectual property and data analytics

We know games promote attention, motivation, emotion and socialising among players.

Companies such as the game-hosting platform Steam have demonstrated user data can influence the creation of new content by game developers. In fact, this is a market advantage that Netflix and TikTok have over rivals.

For example, one could easily imagine that a character who is popular in a game, as revealed through gaming data, would also be more likely to feature in an upcoming show based on that game.

Netflix and TikTok can lose big

When we speak of the streaming wars and greater competition, it’s not a level playing field. There are crucial differences between Netflix and TikTok, and other players such as Disney+, Amazon Prime, Apple TV and YouTube.

Netflix is in the streaming business, and TikTok in the video-hosting industry. On the other hand, based on revenue Disney is in the theme park and toy business, Amazon the online sales industry, Apple the computing and phone industry, and Google in the search and advertising industry.

For these companies, streaming and video hosting is a small side business that provides useful data to feed a greater machine. So in the “streaming wars” they don’t have as much to lose, as they can run these side businesses at a loss.

Netflix and TikTok aren’t so lucky. By turning to games, they’re grabbing onto a lifeline they really need.

Read more:
How Netflix affects what we watch and who we are — and it’s not just the algorithm

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Levelling up: why Netflix and TikTok are turning to gaming to secure their future – https://theconversation.com/levelling-up-why-netflix-and-tiktok-are-turning-to-gaming-to-secure-their-future-183990

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert Phiddian, Professor of English, Flinders University

There are three, not entirely compatible, things to say about how cartoonists are coping with the recent change of government in Canberra.

First, there is the usual mild distress at having lost a pet set of ministers who seem to get uglier and more recognisable with age. Cartoonists can be like chooks returning to an empty feeder: the cartoonists’ Robert Menzies “stayed on” long after his retirement in 1966; so too did Gough Whitlam and Malcolm Fraser well into the 1980s, and Bob Hawke and Paul Keating into the later ’90s.

Bill Leak’s classic whinge in The Australian in late 2007 sums up the problem. Every cartoonist, he said, had the right to feel

extremely disappointed, depressed or even downright angry at what Rudd and his cohorts have given us to work with […].

The cause of his disappointment? “Handsome men and attractive women make life hell for cartoonists, and the Rudd ministry is chock-a-block with them.”

Although time works grotesque wonders, that’s usually how a ministry looks when it steps out of the shadows. Add to that the debilitating instinct to give the not-yet-guilty party the benefit of the doubt.

Cathy Wilcox, for one, suspended judgement of the new government for a honeymoon moment, and instead turned her ire on the broader media, which seem utterly at a loss without the Coalition:

Interestingly, Bill Leak singled out one new minister with potential in 2007: >Anthony Albanese, whose open mouth looks like a cemetery after an earthquake, should prove valuable as long as he continues to resist calls to visit a dentist.

Perhaps “Albo” took notes: for many of the long, last months of the Gillard and second Rudd ministries, he was afflicted with braces.

The Albanese transformation was completed by his carb-free, grog-reduced 2021, resulting in the almost photoshopped presentability depicted in David Pope’s cartoon at the top of this article.

The grotesques are still those from the previous cast of characters — “ScoMo the Clown” and Kooyong Josh, with their pork barrels, swept away by the teal wave.
That’s because where there is real satirical ordure, it attaches largely to the mess left by the departing government, as demonstrated in this typically grotesque image by David Rowe.

The second thing to say is that temporary immunity for a new leadership team is disappearing very rapidly among cartoonists at the News Corp papers, where Johannes Leak, Mark Knight and Warren Brown had already warmed-up with a few anti-Albanese visual tropes. Leak was probably the first to nail down a really first-class negative “Albo” caricature, while the far more ligne claire style of Knight and Brown has struggled with the subtleties of the “new new” Labor PM.

Our study of election campaign cartoons suggests that, even in the most pro-Coalition newspapers, the gathering chaos in the Morrison-led campaign prompted some harsh cartooning.

Brown was unimpressed by a Liberal leader who had come to self-identify as a bulldozer. Leak regularly deployed his pink-shirted, pony-tailed “spin doctor” to pillory the all-image-and-no-substance Morrison mob, just as he did to smirk at how much better Labor did in the polls when Albanese was in isolation with COVID.

So, after the easy bit of making his debut on the international stage, Albanese had better get used to seeing himself in the papers looking like this:

As he and his government take wear and tear, he will be joined by the more prominent ministers – even debonair ones like Penny Wong and Jim Chalmers.

Meanwhile, the third thing to say about post-election cartooning is a sad sign of the sectarian times. There is now very little dissonance between the cartoonists and the editorial line of their newspapers. Perhaps it lingers only at The Age – where Michael Leunig’s much-reduced role has made space for new talents and new ideas to shine – and via the genius of David Rowe at the Australian Financial Review.

There used to be more of this, particularly when cartoonists were often broadly to the left of the corporate lines their newspapers tread. But we do not mean this as a simple left-wing complaint. Guardian readers are no more likely to have their convictions challenged by First Dog on the Moon than are Australian readers by Spooner or Leak.

Read more:
The Australian helped political cartoonists sharpen their edge

We are far from suggesting cartoonists are bending to editorial direction. That simply doesn’t happen, because it is well recognised among editors that cartoonists have to be free to be funny.

But the editorial cultures of newsrooms – assailed as they are by a fraying business model derived from the print age – seem to be getting tighter and narrower. They appear to be drawing cartoonists into line, either by selecting cartoonists who fit the polemical bent of the paper or by projecting a sort of team spirit in precarious financial times.

Either way, readers seem less likely to be surprised by the box of graphic mayhem in the paper than to get a blast of confirmation bias. We can be confident that cartoonists are devious enough jesters to overcome this situation if alerted to it. Not least because they are just as much forward-looking and -thinking as they are conscious of the past.

Our thanks to Lucien Leon, who collaborated with us on this article.

Robert Phiddian receives funding from The Australian Research Council and the State Library of New South Wales Ross Steele AM Fellowship.

Richard Scully receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. From ScoMo to Albo: how a new cast of characters poses a challenge for cartoonists – https://theconversation.com/from-scomo-to-albo-how-a-new-cast-of-characters-poses-a-challenge-for-cartoonists-184545

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Evangeline Mantzioris, Program Director of Nutrition and Food Sciences, Accredited Practising Dietitian, University of South Australia

Most of you will have noticed hosting a dinner party is harder than it used to be. One friend is gluten-free, another is dairy-free, one can’t eat onion and two more are vegetarian. Are food intolerances increasing? Or do we just hear more about them now?

What are food intolerances?

Food intolerances are reactions to eating foods, in normal quantities, that do not involve the immune system.

They are very different to food allergies which is when the body mounts an immune response to a food that is either ingested or even touches the skin. This immune response is very quick (within 20 minutes to two hours) and releases chemicals that can affect the person’s breathing, gastrointestinal tract and heart.

Common food allergies include eggs, peanuts, wheat and shellfish. Allergies differ from intolerances in that the most severe allergies cause anaphylaxis: severe allergic reactions that are life-threatening.

The mechanisms behind food intolerances can vary greatly. One common mechanism is when people lack enzymes that are needed for breaking down nutrients.

In one of the most common food intolerances, lactose intolerance, people lack the enzyme “lactase” which is used to break down this carbohydrate naturally found in milk and some other dairy products. Lactose is broken down into glucose and galactose in the small intestine, and then absorbed.

Read more:
Everything you need to know about coeliac disease (and whether you really have it)

Without lactase, lactose stays in the intestine, where it draws water in from the blood supply to dilute the amount of lactose. Initially this leads to diarrhoea, and then as the lactose enters the large intestine it is fermented by the bacteria in our gut, which results in gas causing abdominal bloating, pain and discomfort.

Other food intolerances due to the lack of enzymes include intolerances to histamine and caffeine. Some people are unable to break down histamine, which is found in red wine, strong and blue cheeses, tuna, tomatoes and pork products.

This can lead to symptoms such as itching, red flushing on the skin, abdominal pain, nausea, dizziness, headaches and migraines. Similarly, people can also have a sensitivity to caffeine (found in coffee and cocoa).

Food intolerances are also different from auto-immune responses, such as in coeliac disease. In this case, people develop an auto-immune response in the small intestine to a protein in wheat called gluten. The auto-immune response also damages the villi, the small finger-like structures that absorb all the nutrients.

Many people who experience gastrointestinal symptoms in reaction to wheat products assume they have coeliac disease. However, they may have a sensitivity to fructan, a type of carbohydrate in wheat. Fructan is a naturally fermentable carbohydrate and a “FODMAP” – which stands for Fermentable Oligo- Di- Monosacharides and Polyols, a group of nutrients that can cause sensitivity.

Read more:
The FODMAP diet is everywhere, but researchers warn it’s not for weight loss

Like in the case of lactose (which is also a FODMAP carbohydrate), some people are unable to absorb large amounts of fructans (also present in onions and garlic). Like lactose, this causes diarrhoea, and then the bacteria in the large intestine ferment the fructan, producing gas, abdominal pain and discomfort.

So are food intolerances increasing?

While it may seem as if food intolerances are increasing, we have no good evidence this is really the case. Data is lacking on actual numbers, perhaps as food intolerances generally do not lead to the requirement to take medications or seek urgent medical treatment.

A 2009 report suggests about 20% of the population has one or more food intolerances, with no apparent change since 1994. A more recent survey from 2020 of self-reported intolerances in internet users indicated about 25% of the population.

The perceived increase may reflect many other factors. Some people may self-diagnose a food intolerance from well-intended but misleading health advice from family and friends.

Additionally, people may incorrectly attribute medical symptoms to foods they have eaten. We also have an increased ability to self-diagnose, thanks to Dr Google. In other cases dietary requests may reflect ethical choices about food.

We all know from attending social events with food how often we need to provide our dietary requirements. This is also contributing to normalising food intolerances, compared to even a decade ago. Previously people would have suffered in silence or simply avoided consuming their problematic trigger foods at events.

Another factor could be the greater proportion of people of different ethnicities living in Australia, some of whom are genetically more likely to have an intolerance.

If you suspect you have a food intolerance it’s best to get diagnosed by a doctor, to ensure you are not overlooking a potentially concerning medical problem. Also you may be needlessly avoiding a particular food group and missing out on essential nutrients required for optimal health.

Read more:
Explainer: what is gluten intolerance?

Evangeline Mantzioris is affiliated with Alliance for Research in Nutrition, Exercise and Activity (ARENA) at the University of South Australia. Evangeline Mantzioris has received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, and has been appointed to the National Health and Medical Research Council Dietary Guideline Expert Committee.

– ref. Why does everyone seem to have food intolerances these days? – https://theconversation.com/why-does-everyone-seem-to-have-food-intolerances-these-days-183224

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Benjamin Brown, Postdoctoral research associate, Charles Darwin University

Mangroves ring the shores of many of Indonesia’s more than 17,000 islands. But in the most populated areas, the world’s largest mangrove forests have been steadily whittled away, and with them, the ability to store blue carbon.

As the world’s fourth-most populous nation has grown, pressure on the mangroves has too. More than 756,000 hectares of mangroves have been cleared and turned into brackish ponds to farm water shrimp and milkfish.

Every year for the past three decades, another 19,000 hectares has been ripped out for aquaculture and increasingly, for oil palm plantations. As of 2015, an estimated 40% of the country’s mangroves had been degraded or lost.

Is this another predictable bad news story about the environment? No. This is a good news story. That’s because Indonesia’s government is, rising to the challenge of conserving its mangroves – and restoring lost forests.

Government investment in mangroves is rising and the political will is in place. Indonesia’s ambitious goal is to restore almost all of what’s been lost, rehabilitating 600,000 hectares of mangroves by 2024.

Why have Indonesia’s mangroves been hard hit?

In a 2012 interview, former Indonesian forestry official Eko Warsito explained why his country’s mangroves were disappearing:

More than 50% of Indonesia’s population lives in coastal areas, and most of them are poor. An ordinary plot of mangroves is worth $84 a hectare. But if it’s cleared and planted with oil palms, it can be worth more than $20,000 a hectare.

Unfortunately, this difference in perceived value has seen mangroves degraded or replaced. You can glimpse the current state of Indonesia’s 3.3 million hectares of mangrove area in the map below, which was released last year by Indonesia’s environment and forestry ministry.

Mangroves are broadly in good condition in the provinces of Papua and West Papua. But in the more populated areas – especially around the densely populated island of Java – mangroves have been largely deforested and degraded.

Recent analysis by the World Bank puts the value of mangrove ecosystems at between A$21,000 to $70,000 per hectare per year. Similarly, a 2020 cost-benefit analysis of mangrove conservation versus conversion to shrimp aquaculture in Indonesia’s Papua province estimated the direct and indirect value of mangroves at A$34,000 per hectare per year.

But these valuations are heavily influenced by the role mangroves play in providing ecosystem services. Without these services, mangroves are worth two orders of magnitude less, at around A$340 per hectare.

Their real value lies in their ability to store large amounts of carbon, averaging almost 4000 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents per hectare. Until now, however, policy bottlenecks at the national level have stopped Indonesia from investing in better mangrove management and producing new revenue streams from stemming mangrove losses.

Indonesia’s mangroves have suffered because of this disconnect between their real value and government policies and institutions. Over 20 institutions have some level of responsibility for mangrove management in Indonesia. It’s no wonder their agendas often conflict.

Read more:
Indonesia’s vast mangroves are a treasure worth saving

But progress is being made. Two years ago, President Joko Widodo added mangroves to the mandate of the country’s peatland restoration agency, after its success at restoring damaged peatlands. The goal for mangroves is to restore 600,000 hectares of mangroves by 2024.

There are alternatives to aquaculture

You might think it’s too hard to restore mangroves once they’ve been turned into shrimp farms. Previously, this has been true, with an over-reliance on simply planting more seedlings rather than tackling the harder work of social and economic reliance on former mangrove habitat. In response, Indonesia’s government has mapped around 77,000 hectares of the best restoration candidate areas across 300 villages in Sumatra and Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo), working in full collaboration with coastal villagers.

To create alternatives to aquaculture, Indonesia’s national farmer field school program will expand to include hundreds of coastal villages. These coastal field schools help local villages improve their management of the coasts and develop alternative sources of income.

These include learning to use Nypah palms alongside mangroves, to allow villagers to harvest the valuable sugar from the sap. This species is the only palm considered a true mangrove. They can produce 800,000 litres of sap per hectare per year, forming a sustainable commodity base for organic palm sugar production as well as bio-ethanol.

Other options include encouraging production of honey, gluten-free flour, tea, juice, jam, and cosmetics. For some villages, eco-tourism could be an option, or shifting to more sustainable aquaculture.

What’s next?

Indonesia’s government is drafting a new mangrove policy, focused on balancing mangrove protection, sustainable use and restoration. We’re already seeing welcome realignment between the nation’s ministries.

These efforts are being funded by a $A573 million loan from the World Bank and a $A27 million grant for the policy reforms and investment in coastal livelihoods. This loan will be repaid with credits from blue carbon. Indonesia’s government is seeking more financial support from other governments and multilateral organisations to scale up their mangrove management to a national scale.

Indonesia’s work to turn around the fate of their ailing mangroves will be shown on the world stage at the G20 summit in Bali in November. By then, there will be a public dashboard to represent progress captured by field-based and satellite monitoring.

Read more:
Can blue carbon help Indonesia meets its 2030 emission targets?

World Bank natural resources expert André Rodrigues de Aquino contributed to the research underlying this article

Benjamin Brown consults for the World Bank. This article does not necessarily benefit the World Bank, as the loan arrangement is already finalized.

Satyawan Pudyatmoko does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. After decades of loss, the world’s largest mangrove forests are set for a comeback – https://theconversation.com/after-decades-of-loss-the-worlds-largest-mangrove-forests-are-set-for-a-comeback-182951

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland

A crisis, as the saying has it, combines danger and opportunity. The dangers of the current electricity crisis are obvious. The opportunity it presents is to end to the failed experiment of the national electricity market.

Having suspended the market last week, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) is now directing generators when to supply electricity. It’s also paying them lavish compensation for the financial shortfalls they suffer as a result.

These emergency measures are unsustainable. But they provide the starting point for a restructured electricity supply industry – one that’s better balanced between markets and planning.

Now’s the time to create a national grid that serves the Australian public and meets the challenges of a warming world. A new government-owned and operated body should take control of Australia’s electricity system. And decarbonising the grid, while ensuring reliable and affordable energy, should be its core business.

A failed experiment

The National Electricity Market is where energy generators and retailers trade electricity. It was established about 25 years ago after technological advances allowed electricity grids to be connected across all states except Western Australia and the Northern Territory.

Before the market began, each state operated its own electricity industry with only limited interconnection. Back then, electricity companies were publicly owned. Most were also fully integrated, with one company responsible for the entire electricity supply chain, from generation to distribution and billing.

The national grid’s arrival coincided with the peak of enthusiasm for micro-economic reform. So, instead of a unified national enterprise, state utilities were broken up into separate parts – generation, transmission, distribution and retail – with the intention they would be privatised then engage in market competition.

Driving the trend towards privatisation was a widespread view that state-owned electricity enterprises had not performed well – particularly in investing to expand access to electricity.

Reflecting this view, the industry became fully or mostly privatised in Victoria, South Australia and New South Wales. Other states opened electricity generation and retail to competition.

Read more:
What’s a grid, anyway? Making sense of the complex beast that is Australia’s electricity network

The market was created just as the global need to reduce carbon emissions was being recognised. Despite this, the climate problem was not considered in the design of the market, which was based on a mix of coal and gas plants.

Until AEMO suspended the market last week, bids from generators determined the wholesale price of electricity at five-minute intervals. Retailers supplied electricity to consumers at prices that shielded them from the fluctuations in wholesale prices.

Prices typically sat around A$50 per megawatt hour. But in periods of very high electricity demand, the price can reach the market “price cap”, currently set at $15,100 per megawatt hour.

Meanwhile, electricity distribution – getting the power to homes and businesses using poles, wires and other infrastructure – was handed to a set of regulated monopolies, which were awarded high rates of return on low-risk assets.

What went wrong

The designers of the national electricity market hoped it would lead to better efficiency and more rational investment decisions. The market also aimed to lower consumer power bills and promote competitive retail offers tailored to individual needs. But none of this happened.

In fact, consumer electricity prices – after falling for the better part of a century in real terms under public ownership – rose dramatically.

This was partly due to high returns to private electricity distribution companies, and the need for infrastructure investment to improve reliability. A proliferation of highly paid marketers, managers and financiers were also required to run the market.

Over time, the failures of the original design led to an alphabet soup of agencies needed to run the industry. They include AEMO, AEMC, AER, ARENA and a bunch of state-level regulators. Finally, the Turnbull government created the misnamed Energy Security Board (ESB), which sat on top of the whole process.

All this delayed the transition from an old and unreliable coal-based system to its necessary replacement by a combination of solar, wind and storage.

Now, this rickety system has failed to deal with a major supply crisis. The temptation is to slap on another patch and restore “normal” market conditions. The ESB’s proposal to pay coal and gas generators to be on standby if needed is one such quick fix. But much more comprehensive reform is needed.

Read more:
Why including coal in a new ‘capacity mechanism’ will make Australia’s energy crisis worse

Where to from here?

A combination of public and private investment is now needed to secure affordable electricity and transition to renewable energy generation.

The plethora of bodies regulating the market should be replaced by a single government agency that buys wholesale electricity from generators. This organisation could then sell electricity directly to customers or supply it to electricity retailers.

The emergency purchasing arrangements AEMO currently has in place should be replaced by “power purchase agreements”. These are long-term contracts between a buyer and a generator to purchase energy, in which prices, availability and reliability are set.

Within those terms, generators that consistently produce electricity at very low prices are the first to be called on. This dispatch method, known as merit order, has been shown in Germany to lead to lower prices for consumers.

At the same time, the Australian electricity grid should be returned to government ownership and operation. And its guiding principle should be moving to a decarbonised energy system, rather than the “net market benefit” test AEMO currently uses when deciding where to approve investment.

Labor’s Rewiring the Nation policy provides a starting point for reform. It should invest directly in the expanded transmission network needed to support the transition to renewable energy.

Australian energy policy took a wrong turn in the 1990s. It’s time to get back on course.

Read more:
In an energy crisis, every watt counts. So yes, turning off your dishwasher can make a difference

John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority

– ref. The national electricity market is a failed 1990s experiment. It’s time the grid returned to public hands – https://theconversation.com/the-national-electricity-market-is-a-failed-1990s-experiment-its-time-the-grid-returned-to-public-hands-185418

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Luke Beck, Associate Professor of Constitutional Law, Monash University

New federal Education Minister Jason Clare has announced a change to the National School Chaplaincy Program to allow schools to “choose” between having a religious chaplain and having a professionally qualified well-being worker.

The opposition has criticised the announcement as effectively meaning “the end of many school chaplains”. So what’s the fuss about?

Read more:
After years of COVID, fires and floods, kids’ well-being now depends on better support

The Howard Coalition government started the chaplaincy program in 2006. It has continued, with some variations, ever since.

A “project agreement” signed by federal, state and territory education ministers governs the chaplaincy program. The states and territories receive federal funding to pay for chaplains in public schools.

What do school chaplains do?

Chaplains are not counsellors in the psychologist sense. They are more like youth workers in the social worker sense.

The project agreement says chaplains are responsible for providing “pastoral care services” and strategies that support the “well-being of the school community”. It gives examples of activities like “co-ordinating volunteering activities and support, breakfast clubs, lunchtime activities, excursions, school incursions, and parent/carer workshops”.

These activities look non-religious. Any qualified youth worker, regardless of their religion, could deliver them. However, the National School Chaplaincy Association says:

“While chaplains must have underlying qualifications in youth work, community work or equivalent, school chaplaincy is religious in nature.”

Read more:
School chaplains may be cheaper than psychologists. But we don’t have enough evidence of their impact

How are school chaplains hired?

The project agreement sets two key criteria for the appointment of chaplains:

1. all chaplains must have minimum qualifications such as a Certificate IV in Youth Work

2. all chaplains must be “recognised through formal ordination, commissioning, recognised religious qualifications or endorsement by a recognised or accepted religious institution”.

Rather than being school employees like teachers or front-office staff, chaplains are employed by third-party providers that have contracts with schools. One provider is a Christian organisation called Generate, which says its mission is:

“To bring God’s love, hope, and good news to children, young people, and families.”

Job advertisements for school chaplains usually require applicants to be Christians. For example, to apply for school chaplaincy positions advertised through Generate, this organisation says “you need to have a committed Christian faith”.

Schools working with Generate have effectively decided they will not have Jewish, Muslim, Hindu or atheist youth workers working with students. Generate is currently advertising positions at more than 20 public schools, including schools in highly multicultural areas such as western Sydney.

There is no public information about the processes public schools use to choose the school’s favoured religion for the purpose of hiring a chaplain.

Isn’t religious discrimination unlawful?

You might think refusing to hire someone for a job in a public school simply because that person doesn’t belong to a particular religion sounds like religious discrimination. Religious discrimination in employment is unlawful under anti-discrimination laws in every state and territory, except New South Wales and South Australia.

A number of state anti-discrimination commissioners have expressed concern about the National Schools Chaplaincy Program.

In 2020, Victoria’s Human Rights Commission told a Victorian MP: “we agree that the program may be in breach of [Victoria’s] Equal Opportunity Act 2010”.

In 2021, in response to advocacy by the Rationalist Society of Australia, Western Australia’s Equal Opportunity Commission said it was concerned that restricting youth worker/chaplain positions to religious people was “prima facie religious conviction discrimination” under Western Australia’s Equal Opportunity Act 1984. In 2020, Queensland’s Human Rights Commissioner said the practice involved “potential contraventions of the [Qld Anti-Discrimination] Act”.

A 2019 religious discrimination case in the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal settled before the tribunal could rule on whether limiting youth worker/chaplain jobs in public schools to Christians breached state anti-discrimination laws.

Read more:
Is Australia a secular country? It depends what you mean

What exactly did the minister announce?

Last Friday, Clare announced:

“The government will open up the program to give schools the option to choose either a chaplain or a professionally qualified student welfare officer.”

The fact it was the new minister’s first big decision suggests the issue is important to him. There’s no good reason to force a public school to hire youth workers on the basis of religion. It’s why the ACT pulled out of the school chaplains program in 2019.

However, there are three key problems with the minister’s announcement.

First, all chaplains are already required to have professional qualifications. There’s nothing new about that.

Second, the minister has not explained how a public school – which schools legislation says are secular in character – could ever justify “choosing” that Jewish, Muslim, Hindu and atheist youth workers should not be eligible for a pastoral care job at the school.

The third and most practical problem is that this announced change won’t actually enable schools to hire youth workers without reference to the person’s religious affiliation.

Existing third-party providers like Generate are in the business of hiring only Christians. Unless new providers come onto the scene, public schools will have little choice but to continue to engage existing providers who will continue to hire only Christians.

Read more:
School chaplaincy debate ignores what ‘secular’ actually is

What’s the solution?

The minister said he will work with his state and territory counterparts to revise the project agreement so a new system is in place for the 2023 school year.

If the nation’s education ministers want to make sure school youth workers/chaplains are hired based on merit and not on religion, they could make one simple change: get rid of outsourcing.

Requiring schools to hire directly rather than through third-party providers will ensure job ads don’t include selection criteria about a person’s religion. Some public schools might well be happy to allow their third-party provider to refuse to hire Jewish, Muslim and atheist youth workers. However, a public school is rather unlikely to itself ever put out an ad like that.

Getting rid of outsourcing would also mean the public money now used to fund the administration costs of third-party providers can be redirected to putting more youth workers in more schools.

Luke Beck is a member of the Australian Labor Party and is on the board of the Rationalist Society of Australia Inc. This article reflects only his personal views.

– ref. To give schools real choice about secular school chaplains, latest change needs to go further – https://theconversation.com/to-give-schools-real-choice-about-secular-school-chaplains-latest-change-needs-to-go-further-185487

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Markus Wagner, Associate Professor of Law and Director of the UOW Transnational Law and Policy Centre, University of Wollongong

After decades of conflict that has neutered its work, the World Trade Organization looks to be back in business.

Its highest decision-making body – a conference of ministers from the organisation’s 164 member nations – has just met for the first time since 2017.

None of what the ministerial conference (dubbed MC12 due to being the 12th such meeting) agreed on was particularly groundbreaking. But the fact there was agreement at all – on areas such as agriculture, fishing, intellectual property, e-commerce and food insecurity – was itself a milestone.

The question is what happens now, with considerable challenges ahead for the WTO and its role in promoting and protecting a global rules-based trading system.

Fighting for relevance

The WTO’s job is to be the forum for multilateral rule-making, to observe the implementation of these trade rules, and to settle disputes among members.

In most situations, decisions must be made by consensus. This means a single detractor can scuttle initiatives supported by the rest of the WTO’s membership.

This has proved particularly problematic for the WTO’s rule-making function, which has largely been comatose for two decades, since negotiations on reducing trade barriers ground to a standstill at the ill-fated Doha Round launched in 2001.

Particularly damaging to the WTO has been the hostility of the US. Past administrations, especially the Trump administration, stymied the WTO’s dispute-settlement function by blocking the appointment and reappointment of judges to its appeal court (known as the Appellate Body). By 2019, there were not enough judges to hear appeals, leaving disputes in limbo.

The WTO has also been criticised for having few to no answers to the world’s most pressing issues: how to craft modern trade rules that support climate action and sustainability.

The rise of economic nationalism and unilateralism has increased trade friction making the WTO look increasingly irrelevant.

Reaching agreement

Given this, the ministerial conference held in Geneva last week delivered welcome agreements on several sometimes long and strongly contested areas.

It agreed on limiting government subsidies for harmful fishing operations in an attempt to slow the depletion of rapidly declining fish stocks. This agreement will aid in curbing food insecurity and increase the sustainability of certain fish species.

Importantly, it is the first WTO treaty with environmental protection and sustainability as its objective.

Read more:
We still need a vaccine patent waiver, but not the one on offer at the World Trade Organization meeting

Read more:
Putting an end to billions in fishing subsidies could improve fish stocks and ocean health

It agreed to relax intellectual property rules for COVID-19 vaccines.

Countries such as South Africa have been pushing for a waiver from provisions in the Agreement on Trade-related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights so they can produce cheaper generic versions of vaccines. The impact should be limited, given vaccine supply is now enough to meet demand, but the concession may serve as a blueprint for the future.

It agreed to extend the moratorium on customs duties on “electronic transmissions” first agreed to in 1988.

It agreed to co-operate to resolve issues to do with food insecurity. With Russia’s war on Ukraine driving up food prices, some countries have restricted certain food exports or are subsidising the price of food from domestic farmers.

It also agreed on reforming the WTO dispute settlement process, committing members – including the US – to “conduct discussions” to arrive at a “fully and well-functioning dispute settlement system accessible to all Members by 2024”.

Such soft language is a far cry from reinstating the Appellate Body. It was likely the only way to bring the US on board.

But fundamental differences remain

The ministerial conference is only the first step. It will be difficult – and take time – for WTO members to reach a compromise on many important issues.

Compromise is needed between the policy space governments demand for themselves and effective international trade rules.

For example, the US and its allies have been pushing for tightening the rules on China’s state-owned enterprises and industrial subsidies. China has showed strong resistance to any new rules it views as being against its interests.

Another issue is support measures adopted during the pandemic. Some governments understandably adopted policies to support domestic businesses in a time of crisis. But some of these measures are arguably against the WTO’s rules to eliminate trade distortions.

These points are symbolic of the larger disagreements between WTO members, with economic nationalism and unilateralism presenting a fundamental challenge to the organisation’s reason for being.

Examples abound. There are the US tariffs on steel and aluminium on national security grounds. China’s trade sanctions against Australia on products such as wine, coal, lobster, barley and beef. China’s Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law and the European Union’s Anti-Coercion Instrument allow these governments to retaliate against any foreign actions they deem to be unfair.

Read more:
Why have Canada and Australia taken such a different approach to China?

A common feature of these instruments or actions is governments taking the law into their own hands, ignoring the WTO’s rule book and its dispute resolution mechanisms.

To overcome these existential challenges, the multilateral trading system will need strong and sustained commitment from member governments.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. World Trade Organization steps back from the brink of irrelevance – but it’s not fixed yet – https://theconversation.com/world-trade-organization-steps-back-from-the-brink-of-irrelevance-but-its-not-fixed-yet-185373

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ari Mattes, Lecturer in Communications and Media, University of Notre Dame Australia

Back to June again, after the disruption of the last couple of years, and the twin festivals of light – Vivid and the Sydney Film Festival – once again galvanise the city.

Here are my picks for best films from among the 40 or so I managed to catch.

Tchaikovsky’s Wife

Tchaikovsky’s Wife, written and directed by Russian auteur Kirill Serebrennikov, is a spellbinding exploration of an individual’s idealistic obsession with greatness.

The film follows Antonina Miliukova (a wonderfully understated Alyona Mikhailova) as she meets and then decides she wants to marry celebrated composer Tchaikovsky (Odin Lund Biron). Tchaikovsky agrees to marry her, mainly, the film implies, as a beard covering up his sexuality and to access her proposed dowry.

He quickly tires of her – she’s annoying, clingy, doesn’t understand or fit into his Bohemian lifestyle – and demands a separation. But she refuses to let go, and much of the film involves following Antonina’s gruelling refusal to give up on her deluded belief in the fidelity and splendour of her marriage.

It is both incredibly sad and incredibly funny, a tale of an idiot whose naïve refusal to disbelieve in her love is as touching as it is infuriating. But by the end of the film, all traces of humour are gone – Antonina has had three children with her lawyer Nikolai (Miron Fedorov), all of whom have died in the orphanage to which she abandoned them. The whole thing culminates in a staggering, surreal dance sequence, the virtuosity of the production crew on full display.

Watching a film like Tchaikovsky’s Wife at the cinema is a genuine delight. It is replete with beautifully staged period details capturing the mania of 19th century Europe. I am sure this will hold up as one of the masterpieces of the 21st century.

Fire of Love

Similarly worth seeing on a big screen, Fire of Love is a documentary following the work and lives of Katia and Maurice Krafft, French husband and wife volcanologists.

Writer-director Sara Dosa skillfully foregrounds the contrast in temperament of the two researchers without undermining the seriousness of their research into volcanoes. Maurice appears at times like a media-savvy entertainer, almost a charlatan, in contrast with his sober, serious wife. This worked for the couple, Dosa points out, both personally and in their division of labour, with Maurice making their films and doing most of the speaking tours, and Katia writing up and publishing their research.

Fire of Love plays incredibly well as a documentary. Miranda July’s narration is surprisingly restrained and the amazing footage of volcanoes captured by the couple on 16mm film blazes across the screen. The assembly of archival interview material is similarly first rate.

The enthusiasm the Kraffts have for volcanoes – and for each other – at all times underpins the film, lending it its energy, up to the tragic (and romantic) moment of the pair’s death, side by side, under the ashes of Mount Unzen in Japan in 1991.

The Passengers of the Night

Mikhaël Hers’ The Passengers of the Night is unapologetically sentimental with a degree of schmaltziness, I’m sure, bound to put off some viewers. But I loved it.

The narrative follows single mother Elisabeth (Charlotte Gainsboug, perfect as usual) as she takes on a job vetting calls for a late night talkback radio show to support herself, teenage son Matthias (Quito Rayon Richter) and daughter Judith (Megan Northam). Their family dynamic shifts when Elisabeth brings home charming drug addict waif Talulah (Noée Abita).

The film’s nostalgic recreation of 1980s Paris is punctuated by carefully observed (and at times genuinely touching) moments of connection between mother, son, daughter and friend. The blend of drama and comedy works so well because of Hers’ light touch, and the whole thing is refreshingly non-polemical (the current cinema of the Anglosphere could learn a lot).

It is certainly a fantasy – a fantasy of family, friends, and resilience, of Parisian romance, of the 1980s – and, like the most effective fantasies, sweeps us out of the present into a moment that may have never been, but is nevertheless pleasurable to imagine once was – or could have been.

Hinterland

Hinterland, directed by Stefan Ruzowitzky, is an impressive film on all counts. It is visually magnificent, with its deliberate recreation of a German expressionist aesthetic working seamlessly with its engrossing narrative.

Peter Perg (Murathan Muslu), a battle-scarred soldier returning to Vienna following the second world war, resumes his occupation as a detective to track down a serial killer murdering ex-soldiers in some of the most gruesome ways you’ll see at the movies. Various clues point him back towards his memories of the war – and an ultimate reckoning with his frailty.

The tone is grim and unrelenting, but everything is so stylish, the actors are so charismatic – Muslu offers one of the most commanding performances in recent cinema – and the detective narrative so compelling that the movie passes by in a flash.

Hinterland works as both a homage to the Golden Age of European cinema and a gripping serial killer thriller. It’s a splendid film, best seen on the biggest screen you can find, and continues Ruzowitzky’s legacy of making big budget Euro blockbusters.

The Forgiven

Sometimes John Michael McDonagh’s work fails to hit the mark – it can appear pretentious in its attempts at authenticity, in its deliberate political incorrectness and geezer-esque humour. This is certainly not the case with The Forgiven.

This is a near perfect film (marred by an imperfect ending), both a gruelling revenge and redemption film in the style of Calvary and a study – and critique – of the continued excesses of the Western elite in one of the former colonial outposts of Empire, Morocco.

Most of the film takes place during a party at affluent Richard Galloway’s (Matt Smith) villa-cum-pleasure palace in the High Atlas Mountains. When alcoholic grump David (Ralph Fiennes) and his wife Jo (Jessica Chastain) run over a local boy on their way to the party, David is forced to set off on a ritual journey involving his return to the boy’s home to help bury the body, while Jo stays behind at the party – and parties!

Read more:
Top Gun: Maverick is a film obsessed with its former self

The contrast between Fiennes’ development from antisocial curmudgeon to empathetic humanist might appear too neat on paper (with whiffs of colonialism about it – the Arab body is good only for the redemption of the white master), but it is so skilfully rendered by McDonagh (and Fiennes) that it packs an emotional wallop for the viewer.

The Forgiven has all of McDonagh’s signature traits – gallows humour, lots of drinking, and a Catholic commitment to the possibilities of redemption in spite (or because) of the horrors of life. But its stark structure in which the earnestness of David’s journey is savagely contrasted with the bourgeois decadence of the party makes it more effective than his earlier films.

The Best of the Rest

There were several other films that could replace any from the list above.

The astonishing documentary Into the Ice, for example, featuring breathtaking footage of scientist Alun Hubbard as he abseils into the moulins in Greenland, or the Danish period drama Godland, stunningly shot on celluloid film following a priest’s frost-bitten journey across Iceland.

Day After… written and directed by Kamar Ahmad Simon is a striking picaresque documentary-fictional hybrid, following passengers on a paddle-steamer travelling from Chaka to Khulna in Bangladesh.

The Spanish horror thriller Piggy is one of the best of the genre I’ve seen and Inu-Oh, a bizarre anime rock opera, shows director Masaaki Yuasa to be one of the most original voices working in the medium today.

The only two disappointments were Unrest and Elvis. The premise of Unrest is excellent – in the late 19th century in Switzerland, we follow the work of clock makers as revolution brews – but its treatment is so dull it’s painful to watch. Elvis is similarly hampered by banal treatment, surprising given director Baz Luhrmann’s usual flair, and is almost sunk by a painful and irritatingly knowing performance from Tom Hanks as the Colonel, Elvis’ cut-throat manager.

One of the pleasant tragedies of most film festivals is that one can never see everything one wants to see, and some of the major films that I missed include Close, the winner of the Sydney Film Prize, Ruben Östlund’s Triangle of Sadness that won the Palme d’Or at Cannes, and Julia Davis’ crowd-pleaser Nude Tuesday. Given their international success, these films are sure to be released to theatres soon.

Ari Mattes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The 5 best films from the 2022 Sydney Film Festival – https://theconversation.com/the-5-best-films-from-the-2022-sydney-film-festival-185382

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mike Lee, Associate Professor of Marketing, University of Auckland

Aotearoa New Zealand will enjoy a new official public holiday on June 24, with the country marking Matariki – the start of the Māori New Year. But with it comes the temptation for businesses to use the day to drive sales.

Some Māori have already expressed concern that businesses were positioning themselves to market Matariki as a shopping event.

On the back of those concerns, Skye Kimura, chief executive of Māori cultural marketing and communications agency Tātou, launched a campaign called “Matariki is not for sale”. “No one wants to see a Matariki Big Mac,” she argued.

But those trying to defend Matariki from mass commercialisation could be fighting a difficult battle.

Few public holidays, either in New Zealand and elsewhere, have been immune to commercial interests. In the United States, for example, businesses are facing criticism for attempting to make money from Juneteenth, a holiday to celebrate the emancipation of slaves.

Human tendency to mark the change

One of the difficulties facing critics of the commercialisation of public holidays is that they may be fighting deep habits born out of capitalism and human nature.

A lot of our special occasions are structured around various parts of the year and changes in the pattern of life. The earliest pagan rituals were about the change in seasons and to mark what was different from one period of life to the next.

Read more:
Australia Day, Invasion Day, Survival Day: a long history of celebration and contestation

From a social and possibly evolutionary perspective, we are already primed to do something different from our day-to-day activities to mark the significant changes we see around us.

When we have these seasonal celebrations, it doesn’t take much of a nudge for retailers to say, hey, people are looking to mark the change and shopping is a really good way to enact that transition between two phases – an “out with old, in with the new” message.

Shopping to celebrate is what we do

Each year is already punctuated with several cultural celebrations that have, over time, become shopping events. The most classic example is the commercialisation of Christmas.

Even though there is the Christian tradition of the three wise men giving gifts at the birth of Christ, establishing the ritual of gift giving, the three months leading up to December 25 have become about sales and opportunities to spend.

Easter, Valentine’s Day, Queen’s Birthday weekend and even Labour Day have all become sales events for retailers.

Matariki also lands in a quiet time of the year for retail – right in the middle of winter and between the big shopping weekends of Queen’s Birthday and Labour Day.

Potential for blowback against retailers

But when businesses commercialise anything there is always the question of whether they have the legitimacy to do so, or whether they’re bastardising the event for commercial gain.

There is the potential for significant blowback for businesses looking to cash in on Matariki. And they only need to look at Anzac Day as an example of commemoration that remains off limits to blatant commercialisation.

Yes, it’s fine to sell poppies or to have a donation box at your point of sale. It’s even okay to advertise with a “thank you for your service” banner. But if a business tries obviously to make money on the back of Anzac Day, people start to get a little upset.

Read more:
Matariki: reintroducing the tradition of Māori New Year celebrations

That doesn’t mean businesses don’t try to get around public sentiment. Every year there is an element of “Anzac washing”, where companies try to make it look like they’re supportive of veterans, even if they have otherwise done nothing to support former and current military personnel.

It is likely that how we handle Anzac Day will provide a baseline for critics assessing businesses that try to use Matariki as a way to drive sales.

Businesses could be judged by whether or not they have Matariki sales, or whether there is some sort of attempt to “Matariki-wash” their other commercial offerings.

Businesses should tread carefully

It is an area full of potential landmines, with little clear benefit at this stage.

Not only is there the commercialisation of a public holiday, which some people find annoying already, but there’s also the debate about cultural appropriation versus cultural appreciation.

Companies need to realise the potential for blowback and controversy is multiplied above other, more established public holidays. There are those who are annoyed about another public holiday adding labour costs for businesses. And there even are those objecting to the supposed “wokeness” of celebrating Matariki.

At a bare minimum, then, businesses determined to use Matariki as part of their sales pitch need to understand what the celebration is really about and its significance within the community.

It will be interesting to see if any are willing to risk the minefield for the sake of sales that come from an extra three-day weekend, or whether they’ll wait and see what happens to those who take the risk first.

Mike Lee does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Matariki falls during a quiet retail season – but businesses should be wary of cashing in – https://theconversation.com/matariki-falls-during-a-quiet-retail-season-but-businesses-should-be-wary-of-cashing-in-185398

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation politics team.

Politics editor Amanda Dunn and Michelle discuss Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe’s Tuesday statements about the economic outlook. Lowe has again warned of more rate rises, indicating the bank is determined to reduce inflation from a likely 7% at year’s end down to the 2-3% target range. But the Governor says he doesn’t expect Australia to face a recession.

Meanwhile Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil has visited Sri Lanka this week amid concerns the people smugglers are looking to test Australia’s borders now there’s a new government. Australia, which needs Sri Lanka to be as active as possible in stopping boats leaving, has announced $50 million in aid for that country, directed to its food and health needs.

With Wikileaks founder Julian Assange facing extradition from Britain to the United States, Anthony Albanese is under pressure to make strong representations to have the Australian freed. Albanese is sympathetic, but whether he can achieve any progress is another matter.

The calendar for the new parliament has now been released, showing only four sitting weeks between now and the October budget.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Word from The Hill: On the economy, people smugglers, parliamentary sitting, and Julian Assange – https://theconversation.com/word-from-the-hill-on-the-economy-people-smugglers-parliamentary-sitting-and-julian-assange-185506

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Dwyer, Associate Lecturer and PhD Candidate, School of Social Sciences, University of Tasmania

Last year experts raised their eyebrows when the Morrison government announced Australia would abandon its contract for French-built Attack class submarines, in favour of eight nuclear-powered submarines delivered under the AUKUS partnership.

Retired Royal Australian Navy Chief Petty Officer Greg Jones was one key individual who questioned whether the choice is appropriate for Australia’s defence needs (at least in the short to medium term).

One particularly controversial point is the time it will take for the nuclear submarines to become operational. Most estimates indicate they won’t enter service until the 2040s.

The Australian Industry Defence Network is now calling for an “interim submarine” class to be purchased to plug the gap. But what would this even look like?

Why are there calls for an interim submarine?

In its contract with France, Australia intended to purchase up to 12 Attack class boats at a cost of up to A$90 billion.

The Morrison government justified its decision to pull out of the deal by arguing the conventional diesel-electric submarines would be obsolete by the time they became operational in the early to mid-2030s. This is despite Defence insisting for years they were appropriate.

The former government said Australia would need more survivable and longer-range nuclear-powered boats to overcome the “narrowing” of the “technological edge enjoyed by Australia and our partners”.

While not overtly mentioned, this was a thinly veiled statement that it intended to counter the potential threat of an increasingly confident and capable China.

In some respects, the cancellation of the Attack class was justified. The development of the project had been rocky for some time. There were allegations of cost blowouts and time-frame issues, leading to questions about whether the submarines would indeed become obsolete not long after entering service.

Given submarines provide a significant contribution to Australia’s military deterrent, a potential capability gap is receiving a lot of attention. But there are several arguments regarding how the gap should be addressed (or whether it can be).

Read more:
Why the Australia-France submarine deal collapse was predictable

What might an interim class look like?

There are persuasive arguments both for, and against, the adoption of an interim capability until the future nuclear-powered boats enter service. Advocates argue Australia’s current Collins class won’t be enough to face more modern technology entering service in the Indo-Pacific region.

Former Royal Australian Navy submariners have written to Defence Minister Richard Marles, arguing Australia faces an important decision: to operate the Collins class for longer than intended (and likely longer than it will remain capable), or purchase an interim capability.

In contrast, senior figures in Defence, including Navy Chief Vice-Admiral Mike Noonan, have rejected the idea an interim capability is required. One argument is that it wouldn’t be viable to operate a third class of submarine, given the small size of the Australian Navy.

Another difficult question is what the interim capability would be. Some argue for a modernised and refurbished Collins class, or a new “son of Collins” class.

According to Lars Tossman, head of business at Swedish company Saab Kockums (the designer of the Collins class), the current A-26 submarine design could be adapted for Australia’s interim needs as a more modern “son of Collins” class submarine.

However, both prospects appear to be at risk due to Australia’s naval ship builder, ASC Corporation. ASC has so far refused to work closely with Saab Kockums for a Collins class refurbishment. The program could potentially extend the operational lifespan of Australia’s existing Collins class by up to a decade.

Even if the current Collins class boats are modernised, Australia’s ability to operate and deploy them is questionable. Some assessments indicate that out of the six boats available, only a handful are available for deployment at any one time.

Difficulty sticking to plans

Another issue is the Defence department’s recent track record in relation to procurement, with several prominent purchases suffering significant issues.

For instance, the Hunter class frigate currently in development has been revealed to be underpowered and arguably too lightly armed for Australia’s needs. The Boxer class combat reconnaissance vehicle has cost almost $2 billion, yet only 25 training vehicles have been delivered. And of course the cancellation of the Attack class submarines cost more than $4 billion (including the cost of the program before cancellation) – with nothing to show for it.

These examples call into question Defence’s decision-making capabilities. These issues are particularly concerning given that the scope of the AUKUS nuclear submarine project vastly exceeds any previous procurement.

Another significant procurement could lead to more delays and cost blowouts, even if only for an interim measure. This could detract focus and funding from other important projects.

Looking to the US for help

Another option, recently hinted at by opposition leader and former defence minister Peter Dutton, is the United States may be willing to sell two Virginia class submarines (the increasingly preferred nuclear-powered submarine option) “off the shelf” at some point in the next eight years – and supply personnel to serve on the vessels and train Australian crews.

In effect, this handful of nuclear-powered boats would accelerate the AUKUS procurement. The plan would go some way towards addressing the capability gap, but is reliant on the US providing the submarines and crew. Yet the US is struggling to meet its own demand for the Virginia class.

The cost of procuring the Virginia class has been estimated to be between A$117 billion and $171 billion. Given the expenses involved in procuring nuclear-powered submarines, it would ultimately be a better option than trying to develop or purchase yet another submarine class in the interim, particularly one that would only be a temporary measure.

But even this option raises questions. Experts argue if the US were willing to provide two nuclear boats off the shelf, Australia lacks the naval support to operate them. Peter Briggs, former head of the Navy’s submarine capability program, said this capability would take 10-15 years to develop.

Unfortunately, there’s no simple solution. And it seems Marles will face a difficult decision no matter which way he turns.

Read more:
The AUKUS pact, born in secrecy, will have huge implications for Australia and the region

James Dwyer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Does Australia need ‘interim’ submarines to tide it over until nuclear boats arrive? A defence expert explains – https://theconversation.com/does-australia-need-interim-submarines-to-tide-it-over-until-nuclear-boats-arrive-a-defence-expert-explains-185300

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna Sergi, Professor in Criminology, University of Essex

In a recent media release, Australian Federal Police said:

We have about 51 Italian organised crime clans in Australia. We have identified 14 confirmed ‘ndrangheta clans across Australia, involving thousands of members.

The ‘ndrangheta, widely considered Italy’s wealthiest and most powerful mafia group, are connected with Calabria, a region in southern Italy. They have important international links with – and are sometimes in a superior position to – local groups, such as bikies.

A flurry of recent reporting and police comment on the ‘ndrangheta may give the impression their activity in Australia is a relatively new phenomenon.

But in truth, the ‘ndrangheta has been successfully planting seeds into Australian society for 100 years. It is integrated into Australian society; it’s not an alien guest or recent virus.

Read more:
Meet the ’Ndrangheta – and why it’s time to bust some myths about the Calabrian mafia

A long history

The recent AFP statement was celebrating first anniversary of “the overt action taken under Operation Ironside, the biggest and most significant organised crime operation” in AFP history.

Operation Ironside – otherwise known as operation AN0M or Trojan Horse in the United States – involved a joint action between the FBI and the AFP that took place on June 8 last year.

According to the AFP statement, “globally, excluding Australian statistics, more than 700 alleged offenders have been charged”, thanks to Ironside. In Australia, it said, 383 alleged offenders have been charged with 2,340 offences.

The recent anniversary of this joint action led to a spike in media reports about the ‘ndrangheta in Australia, with AFP Assistant Commissioner Nigel Ryan quoted as saying:

It’s entirely possible that people will be living next door to members of the ‘ndrangheta without knowing.

I thought it was notable the AFP’s press release mentioned 51 Italian crime groups, of which only 14 are recognised ‘ndrangheta clans; this begs the question of who are the remaining groups.

The AFP’s statement didn’t specify, and focused chiefly on the ‘ndrangheta.

As someone who has researched the ‘ndrangheta for a decade – and specifically the Australian ‘ndrangheta since 2014 – I didn’t think there was much urgent or new in the recent “revelations” tied to the anniversary of the Ironside arrests.

The ‘ndrangheta – also known as “the honoured society” – has operated in Australia in a structured way for at least a century.

The ‘ndrangheta in Australia

The criminal organisation even has an Australian “birthday”: December 18, 1922 when the ship King of Italy docked at the Western Australian port of Fremantle, then in Adelaide and then in Melbourne. It left in each of these ports one of the three founders of the ‘ndrangheta.

The ‘ndrangheta has capitalised on Calabrian/Italian migration to Australia to grow and entrench its power in Australia.

Australian institutions were quicker than their Italian counterparts to recognise the specificities of the ‘ndrangheta between the mid-1950s and mid-1960s. At this time, Italian authorities were largely focused on the more famous Cosa Nostra, the Sicilian mafia.

Australia’s approach to countering the ‘ndrangheta in Australia tends to swing between visibility and forgetfulness or sensationalism and denialism. As investigative reporter Nick McKenzie, put it:

The history of the AFP’s policing of Italian organised crime in this country is marked by widely spruiked success, rarely mentioned failure and extended periods of malaise.

As his report noted, in the past 20 years alone Australian law enforcement has produced maps of ‘ndrangheta families and confidential reports about its members and activities.

Drugs, political infiltration and power

Much media and police focus has been on ‘ndrangheta and the drug trade (Operation Ironside is, so far, no exception).

Yes, the drug trade is fundamental to ‘ndrangheta wealth and power in Australia and has been for many years.

However, as outlined in my recent book, Chasing the Mafia and by investigative reporters, there is a world of political infiltration, too. Legal businesses have been born on the back of proceeds of crime, and powerful men who have a say in the Calabrian/Italian community.

This is less talked out, partly due to fear and intimidation but also due to consensus, friendships, and exploitation of ethnic solidarity.

The ‘ndrangheta is deeply integrated into Australian society; it is a phenomenon with many heads.

As such, it needs a strategy that does not stop at countering drugs importation but considers, for example, the social impact of this mafia on society and the transcultural identity of Italian migrants in contemporary Australia.

When it comes to the ‘ndrangheta in Australia, the combined knowledge of the AFP, the NSW police and the Victorian police is unparalleled. Much of this knowledge is, of course, left out of official statements. These statements have arguably one good effect: they raise the level of attention yet again.

But any attempt to take the ‘ndrangheta seriously requires sustained political will and resources. Swinging between a flurry of attention on the ‘ndrangheta and collective forgetfulness of the issue does not help.

Read more:
How mafia and corruption scandals rocked Italian football and left fans with a crisis of faith

Anna Sergi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. A flurry of attention, then collective forgetfulness – 100 years of the ‘ndrangheta Calabrian mafia in Australia – https://theconversation.com/a-flurry-of-attention-then-collective-forgetfulness-100-years-of-the-ndrangheta-calabrian-mafia-in-australia-184835

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Nelson, Associate Professor of Economics, Griffith University

Australia’s electricity generators would be paid extra money to be available even if they don’t actually generate any energy, under a new mechanism proposed by the federal government’s Energy Security Board (ESB).

Controversially, the ESB has recommended all generators be eligible for the payment, including ageing coal-fired generators that are increasingly breaking down.

The proposal comes after federal and state ministers last week requested the ESB advance its work on a “capacity mechanism … to bring on renewables and storage”. The ESB says a mix of generators is crucial for the mechanism to be effective, guaranteeing energy supply to the grid.

So will this capacity mechanism lower energy prices for households? Probably not, because it includes unreliable coal-fired power stations, and consumers are likely to pick up the cost when the plants ultimately fail.

The electricity market is in crisis

Wholesale electricity prices have surged due to two main factors: high coal and gas prices (driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine) and roughly one in four coal power stations being out of action at various times in the past few weeks.

The coal stations are unavailable because of maintenance as well as the sudden exit of 3,000 megawatts of power due to breakdowns, with almost all Australian coal-fired power stations now older than their original design life.

The Australian Energy Market Operator has suspended the market in response to the crisis, and it’s unclear when it will restart.

Read more:
Australia’s National Electricity Market was just suspended. Here’s why and what happens next

Under the temporary system now in place, generators provide their availability and the market operator tells generators when to run to ensure secure supply. Market prices are then fixed at the past 28-day average for that hour of the day, between A$150 and $300 per megawatt hour.

If generation costs are higher, power station owners can apply for additional compensation, which will be later recovered from consumers. Unfortunately, this means all electricity customers will effectively subsidise the companies that own the unreliable coal generators that caused this crisis.

Would a capacity market have helped avoid this crisis?

The short answer is no. The long answer is actually worse: a capacity market is likely to cause further crises such as the one we’re currently in.

The ESB suggests that selling “capacity certificates” three or four years in advance will mean coal generators will signal when they intend to close. But coal generators are unlikely to face penalties if they don’t turn up when needed – they will just hand back the extra payments they’ve received.

This sort of arrangement is what economists call a “free option” – it costs nothing to participate. If the coal stations fail to deliver, as they have done over the last two months, it will be left to consumers to deal with the consequences.

Read more:
As the world battles to slash carbon emissions, Australia considers paying dirty coal stations to stay open longer

By including all existing generators (including coal), a traditional capacity market is actually more likely to delay investment in new, fast-start, dispatchable technologies (such as batteries, pumped hydro and hydrogen-ready gas turbines) than accelerate them, as ministers want.

Indeed, ESB’s recommendation is already looking difficult to implement. Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen says it will be up to the states to choose which generators are eligible, and Victoria has already said fossil fuels will not be.

Most electricity suppliers also say they don’t want coal included.

What’s the real problem we’re trying to address?

Any capacity mechanism needs to have a solution to unexpected and sudden shortfalls of capacity.

The ESB has noted the biggest risk to consumers is that coal will exit suddenly with little warning because it is old and prone to breaking down. This has been a significant contributing factor to the current crisis.

It also drove higher prices in 2017 when Hazelwood suddenly closed without sufficient time for investment in new capacity to be brought online.

The market operator didn’t foresee any reliability problems less than two months ago – and neither did anyone in the market. The ESB’s proposed capacity market would have implicitly recommended less capacity in the system.

A capacity mechanism needs to create a reserve

As older coal power stations are increasingly unreliable, it may be prudent to have new generation in place before coal power stations fail.

Governments should create a capacity reserve market. Effectively, a capacity reserve pays new generators for new capacity until it’s needed, whereas a traditional capacity market (like the ESB is recommending) pays all existing generators that would have been available anyway. This is the key difference between a capacity market and a capacity reserve.

Under a capacity reserve, governments could provide payments only to new, modern, reliable, fast-start, firm capacity such as batteries, hydrogen-ready gas turbines and pumped hydro. This could be brought into a “waiting room” and held until it’s needed.

Read more:
Australia’s energy crisis: 3 ways the Albanese government can ease pressure on your power bills

New generators could be deployed immediately when coal power stations fail, helping prevent the type of crisis we’re going through now.

Importantly, consumers would only be paying for new generation, not coal-fired power stations. This will cost less, and is the only way to provide the insurance the market needs.

We already have the tools in place

Several years ago, the ESB introduced the Retail Reliability Obligation, which requires retailers to hold contracts with generators for their share of peak electricity demand. This is intended to encourage retailers to plan ahead.

The Retail Reliability Obligation framework could be modified to address situations such as what we’re in now.

If coal-fired generators fail and the market operator is forced to intervene like it did last week, then any costs the market operator incurred could be recovered from the retailers without enough generation or contracts in place to supply all of their customers.

This would be better than today, where the operator’s costs are recovered from all electricity consumers.

Read more:
In an energy crisis, every watt counts. So yes, turning off your dishwasher can make a difference

By strengthening price signals and building some reserves, we can help prevent future crises and deliver what ministers have rightly requested: a smooth pathway to more renewables and storage.

It’s also worth remembering coal-fired generators received a windfall of up to $5 billion under the Clean Energy Future package in 2012. How much more money do coal generators need from taxpayers and energy consumers to simply do the right thing and make their plant reliable? Or to shut it down with sufficient notice to allow new capacity to be built?

Tim Nelson is an Associate Professor at Griffith University and the EGM, Energy Markets at Iberdrola Australia, that develops renewable projects and batteries

Joel Gilmore is an Associate Professor at Griffith University and the GM Energy Policy & Planning at Iberdrola Australia, that develops renewable projects and batteries

– ref. Why including coal in a new ‘capacity mechanism’ will make Australia’s energy crisis worse – https://theconversation.com/why-including-coal-in-a-new-capacity-mechanism-will-make-australias-energy-crisis-worse-185404

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cameron Webb, Clinical Associate Professor and Principal Hospital Scientist, University of Sydney

Summer evenings by the pool, lake or BBQ mean mosquitoes. But what about during winter when we’re mostly indoors? As the weather cools, these bloodsucking pests are rarely seen.

But where do they go?

Warm, wet conditions suit mosquitoes

Mosquitoes have complex life cycles that rely on water brought to wetlands, flood plains, and water-holding containers by seasonal rainfall. Depending on whether we’re experiencing a summer under the influence of El Niño or La Niña, mosquito populations will change in different ways.

During warmer months, their life cycle lasts about a month. Eggs laid around water hatch and the immature mosquitoes go through four developmental stages. Larvae then change to pupae, from which an adult mosquito emerges, sits briefly on the water surface, and then flies off to buzz and bite and continue the cycle.

Read more:
The worst year for mosquitoes ever? Here’s how we find out

Water is crucial but temperature is really important too. Unlike warm-blooded animals, mosquitoes can’t control their own body temperatures. The warmer it is, the more active mosquitoes will be. There’s usually more of them about too.

But once cold weather arrives, their activity slows. They fly less, they don’t bite as often, they reproduce less, and their life cycle takes longer to complete.

Temperature also plays a role in determining the ability of mosquitoes to spread viruses.

Cold weather isn’t great for mosquitoes but millions of years of evolution have given them a few tricks to survive.

Mosquitoes don’t disappear completely

On a sunny afternoon in winter, you may notice the occasional mosquito buzzing about in your backyard. Not as many as in summer but they’re still around.

Some mosquitoes do disappear. For example, the activity of the pest mosquito Culex annulirostris, thought to play an important role in the spread of Japanese encephalitis virus in Australia, dramatically declines when temperatures start dropping below 17.5℃.

Studies in Sydney have shown some mosquitoes, such as Culex annulirostris, disappear. Others, such as Culex quinquefasciatus and Culex molestus, remain active throughout the winter. You just may not notice them (unless they enter your home to buzz about your ears).

Mosquitoes can disappear into diapause

We’re familiar with the idea of mammals hibernating through winter but mosquitoes, like many other insects, can enter a phase of inactivity called diapause.

Once cold weather arrives, adult mosquitoes find hiding places such as tree hollows and animal burrows, within the cracks and crevices of bushland environments, or in garages, basements or other structures around our homes, suburbs and cities. These mosquitoes may only live a few weeks during summer but going into diapause allows them to survive many months through winter.

Mosquitoes can also be found in frozen bodies of water, whether it is a bucket of water in your backyard or a near freezing wetland. For example, there is a group of mosquitoes that belong to the genus Coquillettidia whose larvae attach to the submerged parts of aquatic plants and can survive the cold winter temperatures. Their development dramatically slows and they’ll stay in the water until spring arrives.

Read more:
How can the bite of a backyard mozzie in Australia make you sick?

All their eggs in one winter basket

Some mosquitoes make it through the winter thanks to their eggs. Mosquito eggs can be incredibly resilient. They survive being dried out in hot and salty coastal wetlands during summer but also frozen in snow-covered creeks in winter.

In coastal regions of Australia, eggs of the saltmarsh mosquito (Aedes vigilax), sit perfectly safely on soil. Once the weather warms and tides bring in water to the wetlands, these eggs will be ready to hatch.

There is also a special mosquito in Australia known as the “snow melt mosquito” (Aedes nivalis) whose eggs survive under snow and hatch once that snow melts and fills ponds, creeks and wetlands throughout alpine regions.

Does it matter where mosquitoes go in the winter?

It also isn’t just the mosquitoes that survive the cold months. Viruses, such as Japanese encephalitis virus or Ross River virus, can survive from summer to summer in mosquito eggs, immature stages, or diapausing adults.

Knowing the seasonal spread of mosquitoes helps health authorities design surveillance and control programs. It may help understand how invasive mosquitoes survive conditions in Australia outside their native ranges by hiding out from the cold, such as in rainwater tanks.

Even mosquitoes typically found in tropical locations can even adapt to cooler climates.

This knowledge may even expose the chilly chink in mosquito’s armour that we can use to better control mosquito populations and reduce the risks of disease outbreaks.

Cameron Webb and the Department of Medical Entomology, NSW Health Pathology, have been engaged by a wide range of insect repellent and insecticide manufacturers to provide testing of products and provide expert advice on mosquito biology. Cameron has also received funding from local, state and federal agencies to undertake research into mosquito-borne disease surveillance and management.

– ref. Where do all the mosquitoes go in the winter? – https://theconversation.com/where-do-all-the-mosquitoes-go-in-the-winter-185021

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Toby Walsh, Professor of AI at UNSW, Research Group Leader, UNSW Sydney

I woke up on Friday morning a pawn in a Kafka-esque story. Except I hadn’t been transformed into a chess piece but was a diplomatic pawn, a small player in a much larger international story. I read the news that I and 119 other “prominent” Australians were banned from travelling to Russia “indefinitely”.

The Russian sanctions were a response to Western sanctions and the “spreading of false information about Russia”. The Russian Foreign Ministry announced 121 people had been sanctioned but, in a beautifully Russian bureaucratic bungle, Air Vice-Marshal Darren Goldie was banned twice, making it just 120 of us on the list.

As usual, I was the second person in my family to know. My wife had woken before me and was listening to the news. “Russia has banned a bunch more Australians,” she told me. “Bet you’re on the list.”

The rest of the list was made up of journalists, business people, army officials, politicians and the odd academic like myself. What unites us is our outspoken criticism of Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

No more trips to Russia

This is one club of which I am proud to be a member.

And rather than silence the critics, Russia’s actions only give our concerns more exposure. After all, you wouldn’t be reading this if Russia hadn’t banned me.

I have a number of Russian friends and colleagues that I am saddened now not to be able to visit. I was at a conference in Moscow a few years ago and had a great time. I promised then to return to see the delights of St Petersburg.

And I always imagined one day I’d follow Paul Theroux’s footsteps on the trans-Siberian express. But it seems I will now only ever read about such adventures from the comfort of my armchair.

AI-powered landmines

This brings me to my outspoken criticism of Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

At the start of last week, I had the pleasure to speak about artificial intelligence (AI) at DevFest Ukraine, an online charity event put on by the tech community that raised over US$100,000 for those impacted by Russia’s invasion. And, in acknowledging the ownership of the land on which I was speaking, I acknowledged the ownership of all lands illegally occupied including those in Ukraine.

But I am sure it was another act that was the cause of my sanction: casting doubt on Russia’s claims about AI. In April, I was interviewed for a story about Russian weaponry in the Australian – and as the author is the only tech journalist who made the Russian list, I’m confident that article is to blame.

I can just imagine the Russian official in some non-descript office in bowels of the Foreign Ministry reading the Australian and pulling out the file to which my name was added.

The article reported my significant concerns about Russia’s use of the “smart” AI-enabled POM-3 anti-personnel mine in Ukraine.

Such mines are banned by the 1997 Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Anti-Personnel Mines (informally known as the Ottawa Treaty or the Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention). Russia is not a party to this treaty but 164 states are parties to it, including Australia and every country in Europe including Ukraine.

A barbaric weapon

The POM-3 is a particularly barbaric mine, designed to cause maximum damage to humans. It’s a descendant of the German “Bouncing Betty” mine used in World War II.

When the mine is triggered, an expelling charge projects the warhead roughly one metre above ground level, at which point the warhead detonates. The warhead is packed with toothed rings designed to harm vital organs in a target’s body many metres away.

The mine is triggered by a seismic sensor that detects approaching footsteps.

Russia claims the mine is equipped with AI that can recognise friendly soldiers, thus minimising the risk of collateral damage.

This is an absurd claim. The footsteps of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers will produce the same seismic footprint. No AI can tell them apart.

Not too late to limit AI weapons

Russia’s wild claim illustrates a worrying trend where states will say weapons use “AI” to target combatants rather than civilians. Handing over battlefield decision-making to AI is a hugely dangerous proposition.

Read more:
Lethal autonomous weapons and World War III: it’s not too late to stop the rise of ‘killer robots’

And this is just one the many dangers of AI in warfare. Others include the lowering of the barriers to war, and the development of new weapons of mass destruction.

Fortunately, it’s not too late to regulate this space. Indeed, the increasing use of hi-tech drones in the conflict in Ukraine has been a wake-up call to militaries around the world that technologies like this are fundamentally changing how we fight wars.

Discussions are moving slowly at the United Nations to limit the use of lethal autonomous weapons.

Read more:
UN fails to agree on ‘killer robot’ ban as nations pour billions into autonomous weapons research

Australia has an opportunity to take leadership in this area. Australia has long been at the forefront of international efforts to combat the spread of chemical and biological weapons but has taken a back seat in the diplomatic efforts around autonomous weapons.

It’s time we took up the cause of regulating weapons that use AI to identify, track and target humans. I could then get back to reading about the wonderful history of Russia from my armchair.

Toby Walsh receives funding from the Australian Research Council as an ARC Laureate Fellow.

– ref. ‘Bet you’re on the list’: how criticising ‘smart weapons’ got me banned from Russia – https://theconversation.com/bet-youre-on-the-list-how-criticising-smart-weapons-got-me-banned-from-russia-185399

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Hurley, Policy Fellow, Mitchell Institute, Victoria University

Recent Victorian and New South Wales government announcements may signal the first steps in a profound change to Australia’s early childhood sector.

And it’s been a long time coming. Over the past 30 years there has been a big increase in the use of early learning. There are more parents in the workforce and more children in formal care than ever before.

And our current system is struggling to cope. Access to childcare can depend on where you live.

Low pay and poor conditions have led to major problems with attracting and retaining the skilled workforce we need to deliver early learning and care services.

The state governments’ promises are significant. They follow the new federal Labor government’s promise to investigate how to introduce universal high-quality childcare.

But a lot of work needs to be done for Australia’s early childhood sector to live up to the promises being made by governments.

Read more:
A $15 billion promise of universal access to preschool: is this the game-changer for Aussie kids?

How does the current system work?

Australia’s early childhood sector is better thought of as several systems operating under a single national quality framework.

Services funded by the Child Care Subsidy (CCS) are the largest part of the system. These include what is traditionally thought of as “childcare”.

Read more:
High childcare fees, low pay for staff and a lack of places pose a huge policy challenge

These services use a subsidy-based funding model where providers set their price and charge parents a fee.

The federal government supports the cost through a subsidy, based on family income and paid directly to the childcare service.

A major part of the NSW and Victorian government announcements is an expansion of preschool programs.

Whereas childcare can cater for children aged 0 to 5 years, preschool is more focused on the year or two years before school. Preschool involves structured play-based learning in a range of settings. These include schools, standalone centres and, increasingly, alongside childcare services in centre-based day care.

By expanding access to preschools, the state governments are offering to create more places, particularly for children aged 3 to 5.

Like the school sector, they will use a direct funding model. This is where governments pay a pre-determined amount directly to a centre based on enrolments.

The NSW and Victorian government also announced measures focusing on the supply-side of childcare.

The Victorian government is promising to establish 50 government-operated childcare centres, bucking a trend of relying on non-government providers to deliver childcare.

NSW will create a fund to support an increase of 47,000 childcare places at non-government providers.

Read more:
More diversity can help solve twin problems of early childhood staff shortages and families missing out

What are the problems with the system?

The current early childhood system has strengths, but many weaknesses too.

The total amount of subsidies provided is large – about A$8.5 billion per year. But so is the cost to parents. Estimates based on federal government data suggest the current average out-of-pocket cost for the first child in centre-based day care is A$5,000 per year.

Access is another big issue. Recent Mitchell Institute research highlights the extent of the problem of “childcare deserts”. These are areas where there are more than three children vying for every available place.

About 35% of Australians live in a childcare desert. And 1.1 million Australians do not have access to a childcare centre at all.

Read more:
More than 1 million Australians have no access to childcare in their area

Unlike the school system, governments do not have an obligation to provide access to childcare. Instead, providers choose where to operate. Price plays a central role in the system’s design, and weak or unstable demand means it can be too risky to operate in certain locations.

Providers can be encouraged to go where there is more demand and where they can charge more.

Finding the workforce to enable increased supply will be a further challenge to the proposed expansion. The sector is experiencing record workforce shortages.

A high-quality workforce is a major component of a quality system. Attracting skilled workers and retaining them will be very important.

Read more:
‘Greatest transformation of early education in a generation’? Well, that depends on qualified, supported and thriving staff

What’s driving the need for change?

Behind the flurry of announcements are long-term demographic shifts. The proportion of children in formal childcare has increased by 75% since 1996. About 66% of three-year-olds were in a subsidised service in the July 2021 quarter. Nearly 90% of eligible children were enrolled in a preschool program in the year before they started school.

If home is where we start from, some form of early learning is where most children will end up next.

Making sure that families are supported in a way that meets their needs and matches a child’s stage of development is vitally important.

The early childhood sector is only part of the response. Meeting the needs of families and children also requires reform of parental leave, maternal and child health services, and other wraparound services.

The announcements made by the federal, NSW and Victorian governments set the scene for the next stage of reform in the early childhood sector.

Designing a system that delivers affordable, accessible, high-quality early childhood education and care will require a lot more work, and a lot more resources than what has just been announced.

Peter Hurley works for the Mitchell Institute who receive funding from Minderoo’s Thrive By Five to undertake research into early childhood education and care.

– ref. How the early childhood learning and care system works (and doesn’t work) – it will take some fixing – https://theconversation.com/how-the-early-childhood-learning-and-care-system-works-and-doesnt-work-it-will-take-some-fixing-185299

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist), The Conversation

The final buttons to electronically distribute preferences for the Senate were pressed in NSW, Victoria and Western Australia on Monday. I wrote about the distribution of preferences in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania on Saturday, and the climate activist’s David Pocock’s ACT Senate victory on Tuesday.

Read more:
More Senate results: Hanson wins easily, but Labor still on track for a friendly Senate

All states have 12 senators, with six up for election at half-Senate elections. A quota is one-seventh of the vote, or 14.3%. State senators are elected for six-year terms beginning July 1, barring a double dissolution.

Final primary votes in WA were Labor 2.42 quotas, the Liberals 2.22, the Greens 1.00, One Nation 0.24, Legalise Cannabis 0.24, the Christians 0.15 and UAP 0.15. The outcome was three Labor, two Liberals and one Green, with Labor gaining from the Liberals.

This was a crucial victory for Labor, because it means Labor, the Greens and Pocock will have 39 of the 76 senators, enough to pass legislation opposed by the Coalition.

The preference distribution shows that One Nation was well ahead of the third Liberal when the Liberals were excluded: 0.71 quotas for Labor’s third candidate, Fatima Payman, 0.61 One Nation and 0.46 Liberals.

Had Liberal preferences heavily favoured One Nation, Payman would have lost, but non-exhausting Liberals were about 50-50, with Payman defeating One Nation by 0.85 to 0.75 quotas.

In Victoria, final primary votes were Coalition 2.26 quotas, Labor 2.20, the Greens 0.97, UAP 0.28, Legalise Cannabis 0.21 and One Nation 0.20. Two Coalition, two Labor and one Green were elected, with the UAP’s Ralph Babet defeating the Coalition’s Greg Mirabella for the final seat to gain this seat from the Coalition.

ABC election analyst Antony Green said Babet led One Nation by 0.44 quotas to 0.40 when One Nation was excluded, and gained over 50% of their preferences. Had Mirabella beaten Labor into third, he may have benefited from Labor preferences.

But he trailed Labor by 0.50 quotas to 0.55 with Babet on 0.64. Babet extended his lead on Mirabella’s preferences to win by 0.83 quotas to 0.69 for Labor.

Final primary votes in NSW were 2.57 quotas for the Coalition, 2.13 Labor, 0.80 Greens, 0.29 One Nation and 0.24 UAP. Three Coalition, two Labor and one Green were elected. This was a Greens gain from Labor.

Analyst Kevin Bonham said the third Liberal, Jim Molan, defeated One Nation by 2.4%, down from a 4.0% primary vote gap.

Overall Senate results

The outcome of this half-Senate election is 15 Coalition out of 40 (down three including a gain from a defector), 15 Labor (steady), six Greens (up three), one One Nation (steady), one Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) (up one), one UAP (up one) and one Pocock (up one). The defector from the Coalition in the NT and two Centre Alliance in SA (one a defector) all lost their seats.

Other than the states listed above, the JLN gained from the Liberals in Tasmania, the Greens gained from the LNP in Queensland, the Liberals and Greens gained from two Centre Alliance in SA, David Pocock gained from the Liberals in the ACT and the NT Country Liberals gained from a defector.

The overall Senate is 32 Coalition out of 76, 26 Labor, 12 Greens, two One Nation, two JLN, one UAP and one Pocock. On legislation opposed by the Coalition, Labor will need the Greens and one of the six Others, most likely Pocock or the JLN.

It’s the highest Senate representation for the Greens, reflecting their wins in all states at the last two half-Senate elections.

The table below shows the results for this election by state and nationally. ONP is One Nation and Others are UAP in Victoria and Pocock in the ACT.

The JLN won one seat on just 0.2% of the national vote. They only contested Tasmania, which is easily the least populous Australian state, but all states have 12 senators.

There are many Other parties, but their voters don’t usually like each other, so they struggle to win seats. Left-wing Others prefer Labor and the Greens ahead of right-wing Others, and right-wing Others prefer the Coalition and One Nation.

Senate primary vote swings were different from House of Representatives swings

Antony Green has a table of the final national Senate vote. The Coalition won 34.2% (down 3.8% since 2019), Labor 30.1% (up 1.3%), the Greens 12.7% (up 2.5%), One Nation 4.3% (down 1.1%), UAP 3.5% (up 1.1%) and Legalise Cannabis 3.3% (up 1.5%).

House of Representatives national votes were 35.7% Coalition (down 5.7%), 32.6% Labor (down 0.8%), 12.2% Greens (up 1.8%), 5.0% One Nation (up 1.9%), 4.1% UAP (up 0.7%) and 5.3% independents (up 1.9%).

The reason for the swing to One Nation in the House, but a swing against in the Senate was that One Nation contested 149 of the 151 house seats, up from 59 in 2019. In the Senate, One Nation contested all states, as they had in 2019. So the Senate swing is a better guide to One Nation’s overall support.

As One Nation is a right-wing party, they took votes away from the Coalition by contesting almost every House seat. Labor’s House vote was down due to the teal independents, who were not factors in the Senate apart from Pocock in the ACT.

Senators up at next half-Senate election

These are the senators who will be up for election if the next election is a normal half-Senate election. That election would need to be held by May 2025.

The four ACT and NT senators only have three year terms, while the state senators up are the ones who were elected in 2019. In every state except Tasmania, the Coalition will be defending three seats. Another bad election for the Coalition would be costly in the Senate.

The Greens will be defending their seats in every state, while Pocock will be defending his ACT Senate seat.

LNP easily holds Callide at Queensland state byelection

At Saturday’s Queensland state byelection for Callide, the LNP crushed Labor by 71.4-28.6, a 5.6% swing to the LNP since the 2020 state election. Primary votes were 49.8% LNP (down 7.4%), 19.6% Labor (down 6.1%), 14.4% One Nation (did not contest previously) and 9.8% Katter’s Australian Party (up 1.4%). The Greens did not contest the byelection.

This byelection was caused by the resignation of LNP member Colin Boyce to contest the federal seat of Flynn, which he won.

Macron’s coalition loses majority in French legislative elections

I covered Sunday’s French legislative elections for The Poll Bludger. President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble coalition lost its majority, and will probably depend on the conservative alliance to pass legislation. Both the left and the far-right made big gains.

Also covered: two Conservative-held UK byelections that occur this Thursday, and US President Joe Biden’s ratings are now worse than Donald Trump’s at this point in both their presidencies.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Final Senate results: Labor, the Greens and David Pocock will have a majority of senators – https://theconversation.com/final-senate-results-labor-the-greens-and-david-pocock-will-have-a-majority-of-senators-185365

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joanna Mendelssohn, Principal Fellow (Hon), Victorian College of the Arts, University of Melbourne. Editor in Chief, Design and Art of Australia Online, The University of Melbourne

Review: Land Abounds, Ngununggula

Ngununggula (pronounced Nun-uhn-goola), in the Southern Highlands of New South Wales, at first appears to be the most contradictory of contemporary art spaces. The reconfigured dairy is a part of Retford Park, the grand estate bequeathed by James Fairfax to the National Trust.

The gallery, designed by Brian Zulaikha, places the new so that it sits gracefully with the old.

The entrance pavilion shows Quandamooka artist Megan Cope who worked with the local Aboriginal community to create an installation to celebrate their language and culture.

Director Megan Monte aims to embed connections between land, place and people into all Ngununggula’s activities. These are not limited to art. People come for Yoga and Tai Chi classes, and stay for coffee and art. Children are welcome both as participants in Saturday art classes and to visit on school excursions.

Local artist Ben Quilty was involved in the considerable networking and fundraising to get a gallery of this scale built. One of his original motivations was realising his children had to travel to Canberra or Sydney to see art exhibitions.

The exhibition program ranges from a survey of the local artist John Olsen, to the intellectual and emotional challenge of the current exhibition, Land Abounds.

A place for new and old art

James Fairfax is rightly remembered as the visionary chair of John Fairfax & Sons, the man who presided over The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, The National Times and the Australian Financial Review when they published some of the best journalism this country has seen.

In 2011, Fairfax commissioned a heritage assessment of Retford Park, originally built as the country estate of Samuel Hordern. After he had bought it in 1964, Fairfax had restored the house and landscaped the gardens, but paid no attention to the dairy.

For over 30 years local residents had been agitating for a regional gallery, a place to show new art, as well as old.

Local artist Ben Quilty may be best known for his art, but he has another talent – networking. He knows how connections between people work, and with a disarming smile, can convince people of the reasonable nature of his vision.

The National Trust was persuaded the old dairy and veterinary clinic, at risk of deterioration, was the ideal site for a functioning art gallery. The local Wingecarribee Shire Council and the state government were persuaded to join the partnership. The distinguished heritage architects Tonkin Zulaikha Greer undertook a feasibility study to show all was possible.Private donors, including the James Fairfax Foundation, completed the picture.

Read more:
Friday essay: 10 photography exhibitions that defined Australia

Artists as outsiders

Two artist brothers: Abdul Abdullah and Abdul-Rahman Abdullah, living on opposite sides of the country, have bounced their work against that of one of their most admired artists, Tracey Moffatt, in particular the movie montages she made in conjunction with Gary Hillberg.

Abdul-Rahman has described the exhibition as “an ongoing conversation between the practices of my brother and I, brought to bear on the enduring legacy of Tracey Moffatt.”

They see their work as being profoundly influenced by the way she elegantly confronts the big questions of race and cultural difference mainstream society prefers to ignore.

Abdul Abdullah has said, “I have felt that my entire practice was influenced by seeing her work Other at the 2011 Singapore Biennale.”

The brothers first met Moffatt in 2014, participating in her work Art Calls, and as Abdul Abdullah describes it, they “have been friends ever since”.

Visitors to the exhibition can see video conversations with the brothers, next to a screening of Moffatt’s Doomed (2007), reworking catastrophe.

The sense of unease is accelerated in Abdul-Rahman’s The Dogs, where a pack of black carved animals appear to race toward the viewer, teeth bared, their savagery emphasised by the glittering chandeliers that hang above them, telling the viewer to go away.

Although the Abdullah brothers are the seventh generation of their family to be Australians, their Muslim faith and names continue place them as perpetual outsiders.

Abdul-Rahman Abdullah’s carved animals have a frightening reality. His Dead Horse lying on the hard gallery floor, evokes pity for its state. The artist sees its many possibilities:

A horse is many things; a trophy, a companion, a resource.
A dead horse is many things; a tragic failure, a half tonne of pet food, a senseless repetition.

The horse’s isolation is emphasised by being placed in front Abdul Abdullah’s epic work, Legacy assets, a ten metres long painted panorama of the pastoral ideal. This classic landscape of the Southern Highlands, fields and trees with a river running through it, is countered by the stark white printing of the artist’s message:

WHAT WOULD OUR PUBLIC COLLECTIONS LOOK LIKE IF WE DIVESTED THEM OF SEX PESTS AND PAEDOPHILES?

There is no comfort here. Abdullah has long been concerned that “the projection of genius on deeply flawed individuals was used to justify and obfuscate abhorrent behaviour”.

This is a painting to make us ask whether the aesthetic ends ever justify the means. Can the price of beauty be too high? Is the language of art a “language of entitlement”?

On the opposite wall Tracey Moffatt screens Other (2009), wittily mocking the exploitation of people of colour in popular American cinema.

The name Ngununggula, in the language of the local Gundungurra people, translates as “belonging”. It works.

Land Abounds is at Ngununggula until July 24.

Read more:
In Abdul-Rahman Abdullah’s Pretty Beach, a fever of stingrays becomes a meditation on suffering

Joanna Mendelssohn has received funding from the Australian Research Council

– ref. At Ngununggula, the Southern Highlands new regional gallery, audiences come face-to-face with uneasy contemporary art – https://theconversation.com/at-ngununggula-the-southern-highlands-new-regional-gallery-audiences-come-face-to-face-with-uneasy-contemporary-art-183822

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Melissa Conley Tyler, Honorary Fellow, Asia Institute, The University of Melbourne

The signing of a security agreement between Solomon Islands and China in April 2022 brought geopolitical competition and militarisation in the Pacific to the fore of public discussion.

Australian policymakers and the public are concerned about the potential for a Chinese military base in the Pacific region. They harbour wider concerns that China’s influence is becoming sharper and more destructive.

At a time of intensifying geostrategic competition, Australia may feel pressure to take a short-term and transactional approach towards the Pacific. Such crisis thinking would be unnecessary and counterproductive.

Australia should frame its relationship with the Pacific in terms of long-term, generational partnership. It should be responsive to the Pacific’s priorities for development with a clear eye on a shared, long-term future.

The Pacific will always be of great strategic significance for Australia. Peace and stability in Pacific island countries goes to the heart of Australia’s security, prosperity and national interest.

This means Australia’s interest in the region, and the attention it pays to it, should remain clear, consistent and coherent, irrespective of whether there are crises or not. Genuine, consistent Australian engagement should address each Pacific island country’s unique needs through both bilateral and regional Pacific-led initiatives.

Read more:
As Wong makes her mark in the Pacific, the Albanese government should look to history on mending ties with China

There is a danger that a focus on China could overtake other priorities. This would undermine trust and lead to Australia’s diplomatic intentions not always being well-received. If Australia privileges its own institutional requirements and solutions above local agency and solutions, it can feed negative perceptions about Australia’s intent.

When Pacific leaders look at regional security they have an expanded view, which includes climate change, human security, gender equality, environmental and resource security, transnational crime and cybersecurity. This reflects insecurity in the Pacific at multiple levels:

• globally, as a warming planet presents ecological and civilisational threats
• regionally, as players and relationships change
• nationally, as countries respond to the effects of COVID-19, natural disasters, illegal fishing, transnational crime and other threats, compounded by gender inequality
• locally, where community leaders and security agencies struggle to control violence and conflicts in several countries. In some areas, law and order challenges and the proliferation of firearms mean the risks to individual safety and tribal and political violence are extremely real.

These shared challenges and mutual threats require the long-term attention of Australia and Pacific island countries. We need to move beyond paying lip service to each others’ security concerns and develop a common security framework that responds to the full set of peace and security challenges in the Pacific. This requires deepening relationships and making sure shared concerns are not lost along the way.

The good news is there are strong foundations to work on in Australia-Pacific co-operation. Australia has security co-operation arrangements with most Pacific Island states. These include police-to-police co-operation, defence capacity-building and joint military exercises.

Read more:
Amplifying narratives about the ‘China threat’ in the Pacific may help China achieve its broader aims

There are development programs designed to address drivers of fragility such as inequality and inclusive economic growth. There has been co-operation on climate science, sustainable fisheries and preserving maritime boundaries in the face of sea-level rise. Australia has goodwill in the region to draw on.

There is a risk that Australia’s concerns about geopolitical change lead it to overstate differences with Pacific island countries. There will always be areas where views and interests align, and others where they do not.

Australia needs to envisage Pacific island countries as a network of interaction, trade, exchange, communication and influence reaching across much of the Pacific Ocean. Strong relationships are not made up only of defence and security ties, and do not come into play only in situations of threat. They are the product of long-term, consistent and multifaceted engagement, genuine partnership with and respect for countries that are equally sovereign, and exchange that takes seriously all parties’ priorities, concerns and values.

The opportunity exists for a rhetorical reset framing Australia as a generational partner for Pacific societies. Faced with a challenge to its profile and influence, Australia should pursue a long-term approach. The focus should be on economic integration, reciprocity and sustained commitment to generational progress.

Australians should accept that Pacific island countries will engage with other countries, and work towards bridging the gaps in our defence, development and diplomatic relationships with the region.

Melissa Conley Tyler is Program Lead at the Asia-Pacific Development, Diplomacy & Defence Dialogue (AP4D). This research is based on a report “What does it look like for Australia to be a Partner in Climate Leadership in Southeast Asia?” funded by the Australian Civil-Military Centre. Thanks to all those involved in consultations to produce this report.

– ref. Australia should not overstate the ‘threat’ of China in the Pacific, and mend relationships in the region – https://theconversation.com/australia-should-not-overstate-the-threat-of-china-in-the-pacific-and-mend-relationships-in-the-region-185293

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alan Morris, Professor, Institute of Public Policy and Governance, University of Technology Sydney

Social housing has become extremely difficult to access; in 2021 around 160,000 households were on the waiting list.

To have any chance of getting a social housing spot in a reasonable time frame, applicants must be on the priority waiting list; people on the general waiting list may never get social housing.

However, to get on the priority list, applicants need to

• have complex needs
• not be in a position to rent privately and
• be in danger of becoming homeless
• show they have tried to find private rental accommodation.

In short, they have to prove they are massively disadvantaged.

To find out more, we interviewed 43 people involved in the social housing application process in NSW, Tasmania and Queensland. This included assessment workers, support workers and government staff.

Our study, published in the journal Housing, Theory and Society, found an applicant’s chances of getting on the priority waiting list are much greater if they have help from advocates who know what arguments to make and how.

Success can depend on whether advocates can invest a significant amount of emotional effort to help the applicant and connect them to professionals who can track down supporting documentation.

Read more:
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‘An overwhelming process’

The application form for social housing is demanding.

In NSW it requires answering 31 questions and – depending on the applicant’s situation – up to 18 supporting documents.

Completing the form optimally requires a fair amount of literacy and “cultural capital” – things such as presenting and speaking “well” or being able to draw on the benefits of a good education.

Claire (all names used are pseudonyms), a NSW community housing provider worker, said even understanding the application form is challenging:

I think sometimes it’s the interpretation of what is actually required. What are they asking in this question? And if you don’t have the context of why that question is being asked, sometimes it can be very difficult to know how much information to put [in]. Do I just skip it or […] what do I do with that [question], or what does that even mean?

Jess, an assessment team manager in Tasmania, said:

… [the] majority would need assistance and do get help from supports, family and advocates, as it is onerous. Also literacy, language interpretation would be an issue, especially for lower socio-economic cohorts.

James, an assessment worker in NSW, said some applicants simply abandon the process:

It’s really an overwhelming process […] Sometimes people will say, “You know […] this is too much. Forget about it.”

Marie, a Queensland homelessness worker, said:

It’s more common that they won’t know how to do the process, and so I’ll go through it with them. I assist them with identifying well-being barriers, complete the application with them, get it, and then when it’s approved, also do community housing applications with them if they wish.

The challenge of gathering ‘evidence’

Producing evidence of clients’ vulnerabilities is potentially challenging.

Karim, a homelessness support worker in Queensland, said:

So, getting onto the wait list, that is a battle in itself, right? [Part of that is] getting people document ready […] So, say someone is on the streets, we know they are very, very unwell, but they don’t have documents to prove that. We have done the housing application, it’s gone to department of housing and they’re waiting for further information, because this person’s checked that they have chronic health issues. So [the department] want medical documents or confidential medical report from the GP. This person does not have a GP. What do we do? We try and link them in with the GP, take them there […]

Lots of people, their stuff’s stolen. They’re more worried about where the next meal is coming from instead of worrying about IDs. So getting ID documents, medical documents to go along with the housing application, to get it approved, is the first battle.

Susan, a women’s refuge worker in Sydney, said:

Every question has […] evidence requirements […] and they have to gather all of that and you know obviously just gathering all of that is a challenge […] But that’s definitely something that we support them with; to get all the support letters and stuff in order.

In Queensland and NSW, an applicant who needs social housing because they are fleeing domestic violence needs to provide substantiation.

Susan told us:

The types of documents people would have to collect for this question are copies of AVOs (apprehended violence orders), police event numbers, doctor reports (GP or psychiatrist), support letters from social services. So, as you can imagine, these are quite onerous as many people don’t report to police or perhaps their doctor doesn’t record the injuries as resulting from violence. On top of that, if they’ve just experienced violence they might not feel like running around.

Emotional capital: care, empathy and compassion

Working with vulnerable people requires empathy and compassion.

Avril, an assessment worker in Tasmania, said:

So much of it is about rapport. These people who are often really sick of systems, really sick of them and they don’t want to divulge their entire life to someone that they’ve just met once. They don’t want to sit still in a small room for an hour and a half.

What we’ve found is that by having Pat, she’s our specialist rough sleeper front door worker, [and] is based in services that they know and frequent. She’s known to them and they do tend to [open up] bit by bit.

Jill, an ex-manager in a community housing provider in NSW, explained:

Also refugees or people who are trauma, torture survivors, DFV (domestic and family violence) survivors […] experience additional layers and complexities in applying.

Whilst the system aims to only ask a client to tell their story once and not multiple times, this is not always possible. So it adds further challenges to these applicants and brings up the trauma again, especially if not handled well by untrained staff.

Applying for social housing is fraught, onerous and competitive; applicants have to “prove” their vulnerability is greater than others.

Assistance from skilled advocates clearly helps get you on the priority wait list, which begs the question: what hope do others have?

Read more:
Giving ex-prisoners public housing cuts crime and re-incarceration – and saves money

Alan Morris has received funding from the ARC. This story is part of The Conversation’s Breaking the Cycle series, which is about escaping cycles of disadvantage. It is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay Foundation.

Andrew Clarke receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Cameron Parsell receives funding from the ARC

Catherine Robinson receives funding from the ARC and would like to acknowledge the particular contribution of Anglicare Tasmania, a partner organisation supporting this research.

Jan Idle receives funding from the ARC.

– ref. ‘Getting onto the wait list is a battle in itself’: insiders on what it takes to get social housing – https://theconversation.com/getting-onto-the-wait-list-is-a-battle-in-itself-insiders-on-what-it-takes-to-get-social-housing-184838

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Hellewell, Research Fellow, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, and The Perron Institute for Neurological and Translational Science, Curtin University

Understanding the facial expressions of others is an important development stage. It helps us learn non-verbal communication and to recognise when someone is angry or scared and primes us to react to threats or show empathy for others’ feelings. A growing body of evidence suggests our neighbourhood environment shapes this response in children’s brains in different ways, depending on the dynamics of the neighbourhood itself.

The amygdala is an important brain structure for recognising and reacting to facial expressions. It is responsible for our “fight or flight” response and is sensitive to emotional facial expressions, especially those related to threats.

While this primitive alert system is useful to keep us safe, the amygdala can’t differentiate between real threats and emotions like stress, aggression, anger or fear. This means we often have the same “fight or flight” response to different situations.

A recent study examined the link between neighbourhood disadvantage and amygdala reactivity to emotional faces in kids. The researchers wanted to understand whether positive or negative social aspects of the neighbourhood could influence amygdala reactivity in childhood.

Read more:
Why children need protection from toxic stress at an early age

Making connections

The amygdala is particularly responsive to our environment, especially as children when our brains are developing.

Kids exposed to extreme trauma growing up – such as living in a warzone or experiencing physical or emotional abuse – show altered brain pathways for fear and anger processing, with new brain connections allowing faster and more intense emotional responses. This means that kids may be more “on guard” and quick to react to negative emotions.

People who grow up in disadvantaged neighbourhoods may have an enlarged amygdala, which is related to increased fearfulness.
They are more likely to show heightened sensitivity to emotional stimuli. Neighbourhood disadvantage and amygdala reactivity are also linked to antisocial child and youth behaviours.

What is less known is how the environment and social processes of neighbourhoods can shape the developing brain, for better or worse. Positive social processes of neighbourhoods might include shared beliefs about what behaviour is appropriate, community support and trust, and willingness of neighbours to intervene for the common good.

To understand how neighbourhood environments could influence brains, researchers examined 700 children from different neighbourhoods in Michigan, United States. To get accurate information about neighbourhoods, they used census information to rate neighbourhood disadvantage based on employment rates, education, home ownership, and income.

Researchers then used birth records to locate families with twins. Twins are helpful for this kind of research because they live in the same environment so should have the same brain responses. The study included twin families living above and below the poverty line to specifically examine effects of disadvantaged neighbourhoods.

Twins underwent task-based Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) scans. They were shown faces for two seconds and matched faces based on whether they were angry, fearful, happy, or neutral (no expression). The MRI scans detected reactivity of the amygdala in their scans in real-time when viewing the faces.

The study also included adults from the same neighbourhoods as the twins. These adult neighbours provided an independent rating of the neighbourhood. There were about four neighbours to each twin family.

Neighbours filled out questionnaires about social processes such as community support (e.g. how willing people are to help their neighbours); informal social order (e.g. what someone in the neighbourhood might do if a child was left home alone at night); and behavioural norms (e.g. how people in the neighbourhood might intervene if a child was doing something dangerous, even if it was not their child).

Neighbourhood disadvantage, over-active brains

The study found experiences of neighbourhood disadvantage resulted in over-activity of the right amygdala, with kids from these neighbourhoods being more reactive to facial expressions of anger and fear.

Likewise, if neighbours scored the neighbourhood social processes low and thought neighbours did not look out for one another, kids from these neighbourhoods were more likely to have a highly reactive amygdala response to emotional faces.

However, researchers also found positive neighbourhood social processes could mediate, or lessen, the relationship between neighbourhood disadvantage and amygdala reactivity.

When neighbours said the neighbourhood worked together cooperatively and was supportive – there was no effect of neighbourhood adversity on amygdala reactivity. The kids from these neighbourhoods had the same response to expressions of anger and fear as kids from less disadvantaged neighbourhoods.

Read more:
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Social connections matter

Neighbourhood environments and social connections are critically important for shaping emotional recognition in kid’s brains. This influence can be positive or negative, depending on the social dynamics of the neighbourhood.

This fresh research shows no matter how disadvantaged a neighbourhood is, the actions, attitudes and behaviour of the people who live there are highly important influences on how growing children understand and process threats around them.

Growing up in a positive and connected neighbourhood where people look out for one another and act in the best interests of the community is one of the best things we can do to give our kids a stable start in life.

Read more:
Pandemic babies: how COVID-19 has affected child development

This story is part of The Conversation’s Breaking the Cycle series, which is about escaping cycles of disadvantage. It is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay Foundation.

– ref. Growing up in a disadvantaged neighbourhood can change kids’ brains – and their reactions – https://theconversation.com/growing-up-in-a-disadvantaged-neighbourhood-can-change-kids-brains-and-their-reactions-184145

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vanessa Pirotta, Postdoctoral Researcher and Wildlife Scientist, Macquarie University

It’s that time of year again, when the humpback highway is about to hit peak blubber to blubber as humpback whales migrate up Australia’s east and west coasts from Antarctic waters.

They’re headed to the whale disco – warm breeding waters where males will sing their whale song to attract female company, and pregnant females will birth their calves.

Already this season we’ve seen dolphins dancing with whales, dwarf minke whales with their calves, killer whales and a re-sighting of Curly, the humpback with an unusual curved tail. That’s only just the beginning.

We expect more than 40,000 humpback whales to make this annual journey. I’ll be joining the ABC for their special tonight, Southern Ocean Live, to explore the science around this glorious migration first hand.

But as excitement for the whale season builds, there’s just one whale on the minds of many: the famous white humpback whale named Migaloo.

Who is Migaloo?

Migaloo is by far one of the world’s most recognisable whales, because he is completely white. Thanks to genetic sampling of Migaloo’s skin, scientists have identified that he’s male, and his albino appearance is a result of a variation in the gene responsible for the colour of his skin.

Simply by looking different, Migaloo has become an icon within Australia’s east coast humpback whale population. Indeed, Migaloo has his own Twitter account with over 10,000 followers, and website where fans can lodge sightings and learn more about humpback whales.

He was first discovered in 1991 off Byron Bay, Australia, and has since played hide and seek for many years, with many not knowing where or when he’ll show up next. He’s even surprised Kiwi fans by showing up in New Zealand waters.

With the last official sighting two years ago, the time has once again come for us to ask: where is Migaloo?

Already this year there have been false sightings, such as a near all white whale spotted off New South Wales. To make things more confusing, regular-looking humpbacks can trick whale watchers when they flip upside down, due to their white bellies.

Migaloo as a flagship whale

The annual search for Migaloo connects people with the ocean during the colder months, and is an opportunity to learn more about the important ecological role whales play in the sea.

Migaloo’s popularity has also help drive modern marine citizen science. For example, the Cape Solander Whale Migration study records sightings of Migaloo as part of their 20 year data set. His presence was always a highlight for citizen scientists in the team.

Migaloo also represents the connection whales play between two extreme environments: the Antarctic and the tropics, both of which are vulnerable to climate change.

Earlier this year humpbacks were removed from Australia’s list of threatened species, as populations bounced back significantly after whaling ceased. But climate change poses a new threat, with a paper this year suggesting rising sea surface temperatures may make humpback whale breeding areas too warm.

Other changes to the ocean – such as ocean currents and the distribution of prey – may change where whales are found are when they migrate.

In Australia, for example, we’re already seeing many whales dine out on their migration south. Humpback whales are known to primarily feed once they’re back in Antarctic waters, so scientists are closely watching any new feeding areas off Australia.

Feeding in Australian waters might even become an annual event, and may mean southern NSW waters become an area of importance for migrating humpback whales. This behaviour encourages us to ask more about what’s going on below the surface, and the potential changes in the broader marine ecosystem we just don’t yet know about.

So where is he now? Could he be dead?

Migaloo’s presence – or lack thereof – highlights the variations in whale migration. Some whales may choose to migrate early or late, or even elsewhere such as in New Zealand. Others might choose not to migrate at all and remain in the Southern Ocean.

Migaloo’s presence may be driven by several factors. This includes social circumstances, such as interactions with other whales (including moving between different pods) or biological needs (the desire to head north the reproduce).

Environmental conditions, such as currents and water temperature, may also impact when and where Migaloo chooses to swim.

Read more:
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Unfortunately, Migaloo and other whales do face a number of human-caused threats in the ocean every day, such as entanglement in fishing gear or collisions with ships. They also face natural threats, such as predation by killer whales.

Fortunately, Migaloo’s sighting history has shown us he can turn up when we least expect it, or not. So, there’s still hope we might see him yet. After all, being in his mid 30s, he’s likely in the prime of his whale life.

How to get involved

The continuing search for Migaloo shows how marine citizen science has become a powerful way to learn about wildlife. Many eyes make science work, as a network of citizen scientists can cover vast areas scientists can’t alone.

A team of 200 citizen science scuba divers, for example, surveyed 2,406 ocean sites in 44 countries over a decade to track how warming oceans impact marine life. They found fish may expand their habitat, pushing out other sea creatures.

But participating in marine citizen science is often as easy as recording wildlife observations on your phone next time you’re at the beach. Opportunities include Happy Whale, RedMap, Wild Sydney Harbour and INaturalist.

This year’s annual migration will last until October or November, so here’s hoping we’ll see Migaloo once again. The power of this unique whale to generate discussion, despite not being seen for years, is true testament to just how curious we are about the mysteries of the deep.

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Vanessa Pirotta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Is Migaloo… dead? As climate change transforms the ocean, the iconic white humpback has been missing for two years – https://theconversation.com/is-migaloo-dead-as-climate-change-transforms-the-ocean-the-iconic-white-humpback-has-been-missing-for-two-years-184256

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna Malos, Australia – Country Lead, Climateworks Centre

Australia’s east coast energy market has been on a rocky road for the past few weeks. It begs the question: how could the market change to avoid the next crisis?

To date, discussion has largely focused on the need to generate more energy. But there’s another way to ease strain on the system – by using less energy.

Last week, New South Wales residents were asked to find safe ways to consume less power during the evening peak, such as not running dishwashers until after they went to bed. Such actions, when deployed at scale, can make a big difference to shoring up short-term supplies.

But Australia has only scratched the surface of what’s possible when it comes to managing energy demand. As the transition away from fossil fuels continues, we should scrutinise every bit of electricity consumption to make sure it’s needed. It’s not about going without, but making the best use of what’s available.

Getting smart about energy use

Asking people to reduce electricity use is known in energy circles as “demand management”.

Sometimes it involves paying consumers to use less electricity. That’s because offering financial rewards is far cheaper than blackouts or bringing more emergency reserve supply onto the market.

The current system of demand management is currently geared towards major energy consumers, such as industrial plants. AEMO has several mechanisms through which it pays big energy users to power down when the system is struggling.

But more can be done to encourage households to reduce their electricity demand.

Some energy retailers offer incentives to encourage households to reduce their use at given times. It might mean people turning down the heater, using appliances outside peak times or tapping into rooftop solar power stored in home batteries instead of taking power from the grid.

Read more:
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Householders signed up to the scheme are sent a text message asking them to propose a reduction in energy use ahead of an expected supply shortage. Credits are paid if the household achieves the reduction.

Reducing household electricity demand will become easier as home appliances become increasingly internet-enabled and remotely controlled. This allows people to, for example, turn off a home appliance while they’re at work.

In future, it could even allow people to opt into a scheme where a retailer temporarily turns off appliances in thousands of homes when they’re unoccupied.

Currently, only a small number of households take part in schemes – but retailers see much greater potential. For instance, over the next four years Origin Energy proposes to scale up their scheme to 2,000 megawatts – capacity similar to a large power station such as Loy Yang A in Victoria.

Net-zero and beyond

There are many ways to improve the way we currently manage demand – and many of them can lead to lower bills for consumers.

Time-of-use tariffs, which offer cheaper electricity outside peak times, are a key potential measure. Some homes already use the lower overnight electricity rates to heat their hot water. But big energy users have traditionally made most use of these incentives.

As householders increasingly use smart meters – devices that digitally measure energy use – opting into these tariffs will become easier.

Appliances, lighting and heating connected to the internet can dramatically increase the broader power of demand management. Businesses could offer services to, for instance, monitor the wholesale electricity market and remotely turn on electric hot water heaters when prices are cheapest.

Managing energy demand is crucial for the longer-term transition to net-zero emissions. As sectors such as transport and industry become electrified or move to green hydrogen (produced by renewable energy), new supply challenges will emerge.

For heavy industry, reduced energy use – as part of a broader shift away from fossil fuels – will reduce business costs and increase competitiveness. A new report, which we contributed to, shows a coordinated transition could also lead to wider benefits such as thousands of new jobs and cuts to greenhouse gas emissions.

The challenge for AEMO is to integrate renewable energy generation and storage, and a far greater use of demand management, into its next plan for the national electricity market.

And much can be done at a household level. Millions of Australian homes are costly to heat or cool because they’re poorly insulated and designed. All levels of government could support the proposed revision of the National Construction Code to increase energy performance standards.

Read more:
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Looking ahead

Managing demand makes sense well beyond a crisis. Doing it well will go a long way to creating the clean, affordable and reliable energy system Australians need.

The potential for demand management only grows as renewable energy makes the electricity system more decentralised, and technology enables consumers to participate more actively.

The Energy Security Board is taking the right steps by working on issues such as flexible demand and consumer technology choices. The next test is how well the nation’s energy ministers embrace the power of managing energy demand.

Read more:
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Anna Malos is part of Climateworks Centre which receives funding from philanthropy and project-specific financial support from a range of private and public entities including federal, state and local government and private sector organisations and international and local non-profit organisations. Climateworks Centre works within Monash University’s Sustainable Development Institute.

Emi Minghui Gui is part of Climateworks Centre which receives funding from philanthropy and project-specific financial support from a range of private and public entities including federal, state and local government and private sector organisations and international and local non-profit organisations. Climateworks Centre works within Monash University’s Sustainable Development Institute. Emi previously worked for AEMO from 2010-2012.

– ref. In an energy crisis, every watt counts. So yes, turning off your dishwasher can make a difference – https://theconversation.com/in-an-energy-crisis-every-watt-counts-so-yes-turning-off-your-dishwasher-can-make-a-difference-185247

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Karen Thorpe, Professor, Queensland Brain Institute, The University of Queensland

Australia’s two most populous states, New South Wales and Victoria, have set the target of delivering an extra year of learning for all children before they start school. Billed as “the greatest transformation of early education in a generation”, last Thursday’s announcement follows close on the heels of the new federal government’s legacy vision for childcare, with an extended childcare subsidy to increase access.

These moves are well justified. There is compelling evidence that such investments could lift productivity by increasing parent employment and children’s development gains and improving life chances for the most disadvantaged.

Realising the promise of these gains, however, depends entirely on the availability of a qualified, supported and thriving workforce. We can’t deliver high-quality learning without them. Developing such a workforce must be an urgent priority given Victoria’s target date for the new program is 2025 and NSW’s is 2030.

Read more:
A $15 billion promise of universal access to preschool: is this the game-changer for Aussie kids?

What do we mean by high quality?

Not all early education programs deliver on the promise of promoting children’s development and learning. “Cheaper childcare” may enable parent workforce participation. But it is unlikely to deliver the long-term benefits of promoting children’s learning and closing equity gaps.

Quality matters. The first five years of life are a critical period in human brain development. The quality of experiences in these years lays the foundations for lifetime achievement and well-being.

For this reason, research seeks to identify the essential components that go beyond child-minding to delivering high-quality early childhood education and care.

More than two decades of research has shown the interactions between educators and children are the critical element of optimal child learning. Policy-regulated features, such as physical resources and staff qualifications, help support higher-quality learning. Yet they alone are not enough to deliver on the promise of improving children’s life chances and reducing the stark inequities among children starting school, as documented by the 2021 Australian Early Development Census.

Read more:
Preschool benefits Indigenous children more than other types of early care

What really matters for early learning?

For this reason, researchers in this field focus on identifying the qualities of educator-child interactions that best support children’s learning and well-being. Our Australian research has examined the long-term effects of instructional, organisational and emotional qualities of interactions.

Instructional qualities are focused on teaching content and language interactions. Organisational interactions are focused on setting behavioural expectations and maintaining predictability. Emotional interactions are focused on relationships between child and educator, including regard for the child’s perspective.

Analysing data from E4Kids, Australia’s largest study of early childhood education and care quality, the emotional qualities of interactions emerge as the critical factor. Our study published last week in Child Development, tracked 1,128 children across three years of early education to ask how change in instructional, organisational and emotional qualities of educator-child interactions was associated with each child’s rate of learning.

We found instructional and organisational aspects of interaction did not reliably predict child learning. Changes in the emotional environment did predict language development.

Further, in a study for the Queensland government, we linked the qualities of the early learning environment at age four to the subsequent school achievements (maths, science, English, NAPLAN) of the children participating in E4Kids. Again, the emotional quality of interactions was the key predictor of outcomes. We could still see the effects in secondary school.

Read more:
More diversity can help solve twin problems of early childhood staff shortages and families missing out

It all depends on a stable and supported workforce

Emotionally positive early childhood education and care environments require a stable and supported workforce. Globally, there is a shortage of qualified early childhood educators. Australia is no exception.

Our workforce study included a national survey and detailed study of services in metropolitan, regional and remote locations. We found one in five educators intended to leave the sector in the next year. In tracking a cohort of educators, each year one in three left their service. In remote settings the attrition rate was one in two.

This represents a serious loss of relationships for children and their parents. As educators leave, they take with them their depth of knowledge of each child and family.

Our research, and a 2021 survey by the United Workers Union, found those who stay are often stressed. They feel unable to deliver the optimal emotionally supportive environment.

Early childhood workers are paid well below average weekly earnings. Many struggle financially or depend on spouses or family members for financial support to continue in the job they love. Those studying for a degree are often doing so to move to the school sector where pay, conditions and status are better.

Need to boost workforce is urgent

Without significant investment in the workforce, the new early education strategies will lack solid foundations and may well fall short on the promise they offer.

A workforce strategy for the next decade, Shaping Our Future, was published in September 2021. It acknowledges the need for better pay, conditions and professional recognition to grow and sustain the workforce. The strategy also recognises their well-being as important, though it emphasises individualised supports for well-being, not systemic change.

However, the stated strategy to remedy the crisis is to “investigate options” for improving pay and conditions and well-being supports by 2025. That’s when the extra year of preschool learning is due to begin in Victoria. Our research, and the timing of the announced changes, suggests an urgent need to move from investigation to immediate action to stem the exodus of qualified early childhood educators and enable those who stay to thrive.

This article is part of The Conversation’s Breaking the Cycle series, which is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay Foundation.

Karen Thorpe receives funding from the Australian Research Council as a chief investigator on the Centre of Excellence for Children and Families across the Life Course ( CE200100025) , the Centre of Excellence for the Digital Child (CE200100022) and a current Discovery Project (DP190102981). She has also been funded by the Queensland Government and Commonwealth Departments of Social Services, Education and Health to undertake studies of early child development. This article is part of The Conversation’s Breaking the Cycle series, which is about escaping cycles of disadvantage. The series is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay Foundation.

Azhar Potia’s research is supported partially by the Australian Government through the Australian Research Council’s Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course (Project ID CE200100025). He has also received funding from Government departments such as the Queensland Department of Education and the Department of Health, and NGOs such as the Former Origin Greats, Social Ventures Australia and Beyond the Broncos.

Peter Rankin’s research was supported (partially or fully) by the Australian Government through the Australian Research Council’s Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course (Project ID CE200100025). He has also been funded by the Queensland Government and Commonwealth Departments of Social Services and Education.

Sally Staton has previously received research funding from the Australian Government through the Australian Research Council and the National Health and Medical Research Council, from the Queensland Government Department of Education, and from NGOs including Social Ventures Australia and Early Childhood Australia.

Dr Sandy Houen’s research is partially supported by the Australian Government through the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course (project ID CD 200100025) and the Australian Research
Council Centre of Excellence for the Digital Child (project ID CE200100022). She has previously received funding from the Queensland Government Department of Education and Social Ventures Australia.

– ref. ‘Greatest transformation of early education in a generation’? Well, that depends on qualified, supported and thriving staff – https://theconversation.com/greatest-transformation-of-early-education-in-a-generation-well-that-depends-on-qualified-supported-and-thriving-staff-185210

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Flavio Macau, Associate Dean – School of Business and Law, Edith Cowan University

If you’re building or renovating a home, and frustrated with huge delays, you’re not alone.

Australia’s builders are struggling to find timber. For items such as laminated veneer lumber – used for frames and beams – they’ve reported waiting up to four months. For trusses – used to build walls and roofs – up to nine months.

Fears these shortages could send builders bust have been exaggerated, but the pain of delays and escalating price is real enough for tradies and clients.

There’s no easy fix to this crisis. It has been caused by the confluence of four factors: government stimulus for the building industry; increasing reliance on imported lumber; the pressure placed on global shipping by the pandemic; and the effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the world market.

Government (over)stimulus

If one had to choose a specific date for when the crisis began, it would be June 3 2020 – the day the Morrison government announced its A$688 million Homebuilder scheme.

This scheme provided up to $25,000 towards building a new home or renovating an existing one. State governments also subsequently offered building grants.

Read more:
Government to give $25,000 grants to people building or renovating homes

There were reasons to fear the pandemic would devastate home construction. The Master Builders Association in 2019 had forecast new-dwelling starts would decline 3.5% in 2020/21. In April 2020, during the initial phase of the COVID panic spiral, it tipped the decline would be 40%.

The following graph shows what actually happened. Approvals for all new dwellings increased more than 25% in 2020-21. Approvals for new houses rose more than 40%.

Obviously there were multiple factors driving these increases. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates from 0.75% to 0.25% in March, and again in November to 0.1%. Billions of dollars were being pumped into the economy in other ways.

Higher demand, lower supply

Higher housing starts means higher demand for lumber.

Freestanding houses in particular use larges quantities of lumber – softwoods for roof and lightweight framing, hardwoods for joinery and flooring. Carpentry typically represents about 20% of the cost of the average new home.

However, domestic lumber supply in Australia is going the other way. Logging of native forests is in decline while domestic plantation production has plateaued.

The following graphs shows trends in the volume of wood logged from Australia’s native forests or harvested from plantations.

You can see hardwoods (shown in dark green and dark blue) overwhelmingly come from native forests. These volumes have been falling in line with action to conserve what’s left of native forests. Supply will fall further when Queensland and Western Australia end native logging in 2024, and Victoria in 2030.

Softwoods mostly come from commercial plantations. The volume of softwood harvested has increased by about 40% over the past 20 years, but the amount of land plantations has been stable for about a decade.

Minimal new plantations have been established in recent years. Eastern Australia’s 2019-20 bushfires also affected about 130,000 hectares of commercial plantations.

Waiting for costlier imports

This means Australian builders are more reliant on imported timber – at a time most global supply chains are strained and energy prices are driving up transportation costs.

Wood products are typically shipped in containers, which have been in short supply during the pandemic (due to extra demand). If you can actually find a container, the transport cost may still be more than double than before COVID-19.

Another issue is that Russia is a major wood exporter – second to Canada in all sawn-wood exports, but the top exporter of softwood lumber. While a relatively unimportant source for Australia overall, it dominates in specific products such as laminated veneer lumber.

Australia will impose a 35% tariff on “conflict timber” from Russia (and Belarus) in October.

Read more:
Weakening Australia’s illegal logging laws would undermine the global push to halt forest loss

What next?

Should Australia do more to become self-sufficient? This is a hard question to answer.

Even if you think yes, bear in mind even the fastest-growing softwood tree takes at least 20 years to grow.

Bringing forward production is complicated. Forestry businesses must forecast demand and lock in production for decades to come. They cannot be expected to respond to short-term crises in the same way as an oil producer or toilet paper manufacturer can.

The hard truth is that the construction industry will have to weather the storm the best it can – likely until at least 2023. By then the home-building boom should be at an end, with higher interest rates likely to slow the pace of housing construction.

Flavio Macau is affiliated with the Australasian Supply Chain Institute (ASCI)

– ref. Timber shortages look set to delay home building into 2023. These 4 graphs show why – https://theconversation.com/timber-shortages-look-set-to-delay-home-building-into-2023-these-4-graphs-show-why-185197

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Isaac Gross, Lecturer in Economics, Monash University

The Reserve Bank of Australia is about to be put under the microscope in the first major review of its performance in at least 30 years, and perhaps forever.

In research published this month in the Economic Record, Australian Labor member of parliament Andrew Leigh and myself analyse how the bank has set interest rates over the past two decades and grade its performance.

To do this we use the RBA‘s own model (called MARTIN) to evaluate how well it has achieved its two key goals of full employment and price stability.

We examine the bank’s performance across three periods:

1. The global downturn that began in 2001

2. The global financial crisis that began in 2008

3. The four pre-pandemic years from 2016 to 2019, in which inflation was below the bank’s 2-3% target band.

Top marks for the first two crises

We find that in each of the first two crises the bank did a good job. In the face of large economic shocks it cut interest rates to save jobs.

Low interest rates make it easier for businesses and households to borrow and spend. From 2001 the rate cuts lowered unemployment from 7% to less than 6%.

During the global financial crisis the bank again aggressively cut interest rates.

The bank’s model suggests that had it not decreased rates unemployment would have climbed to almost 8%. Instead, it fell to 5%, never even climbing as high as 6%.

The mark we assign to the bank for each of these two periods is a solid “A”.

A pre-COVID failure that cost people work

But we find that between 2016 and 2019 the bank dramatically under-performed.

During this period the economy entered a slump. Economic growth sank, wage growth was anaemic and inflation hovered below the bank’s target band.

The bank did cut its cash rate, but not by much, from 1.75% to 0.75%.

This relative inaction meant unemployment was kept higher than was necessary.

Relative to the optimal path identified by the RBA‘s model, we find this cost the equivalent of 270,000 people being out of work for one year.

The high cost of high interest rates

270,000 jobs is a big deal. By way of comparison, Melbourne’s suburban rail loop is estimated to create only 8,000 jobs when construction starts on the first stage, while the national inland rail project is estimated to create around 20,000 jobs. Closing Australia’s border is estimated to have cost 72,000 jobs.

Each of these is a massive public project or decision, but they are dwarfed by the bank’s decision to run the economy to slow over that four year period.

The stance taken by the bank under Governor Philip Lowe during those four years amounts to a substantial error. Such an error warrants a grade of “C-” at best.

Too much concern about home prices?

One explanation for this error might be that the bank didn’t want to boost house prices.

Governor Lowe told a business audience in 2017 that while he would like the economy to grow a bit more,

if we were to try to achieve that through monetary policy that would encourage people to borrow more and it would probably put upward pressure on housing prices. At the moment I don’t think those two things are in the national interest.

More recently he has backed away from the idea, telling the National Press Club in 2022 he did not think the idea of making the bank responsible for home prices made sense.

Using interest rates to restrain house prices is known as “leaning against the wind”. The Reserve Bank’s own researchers have found the costs of leaning against the wind are three to eight times larger than the benefit of avoiding financial crises.

Read more:
The RBA has got a lot right, but there’s still a case for an inquiry

We have been in a very different situation since. During COVID, the bank cut rates further than it once thought possible and helped push unemployment down to a 48-year low of 3.9%. And now it has begun to push rates back up.

But the best way to avoid repeating mistakes is to acknowledge and diagnose them. Hopefully the review can help illuminate where such errors have occurred so that the bank can do better in the future.

Isaac Gross does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The RBA’s pre-COVID failure to cut interest rates faster may have cost as much as 270,000 jobs – https://theconversation.com/the-rbas-pre-covid-failure-to-cut-interest-rates-faster-may-have-cost-as-much-as-270-000-jobs-185381

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Scales, PhD Candidate, Swinburne University of Technology

Less than a week ago, American singer and rapper Lizzo set a new bar for celebrity apologies. Lizzo re-released her latest single GRRRLS after receiving criticism online, due to the first verse in the song containing an ableist slur.

Fans and disability advocates shared their disappointment and hurt over the lyric. On Twitter and TikTok the use of the term and its history as offensive was discussed and dissected. Lizzo tweeted an apologetic statement three days later, receiving high praise.

A celebrity apology acts as a turning point, influencing if and how fans will continue to support them. Done well, a celebrity apology allows their fans to see behind the constructed persona, understand their motivations and view them as genuine.

From Ariana Grande licking a donut and claiming she “hated America”, and Will Smith’s infamous Oscars slap, to offensive comments and criminal allegations, we want celebrities to show they are sorry. We demand these statements so frequently that Chris Pratt made a “heartfelt apology for whatever it is he would end up accidentally saying”.

So, why was Lizzo’s apology so effective?

Acknowledge the mistake

An apology is made up of two parts, the first being an acknowledgement. Hugh Grant admitting “[he] did a bad thing and there you have it” is widely considered one of the best, as he owned his arrest and affair.

Lizzo’s reads:

“It’s been brought to my attention there is a harmful word in my new song ‘GRRRLS’. Let me make one thing clear: I never want to promote derogatory language.”

She addresses and admits to her mistake and the hurt caused, in a clear and explicit way. The second sentence of her acknowledgement acts to set the record straight ensuring what we knew of her persona to be true: Lizzo champions acceptance and self-love.

Show you’re sorry

The second part of an apology is showing remorse. It indicates the apology is not performative or a box-ticking exercise and communicates genuine regret. For example, Kristen Stewart was “deeply sorry for the hurt and embarrassment [she] caused” over her affair, and Chris Evans “rightfully angered some fans” over his use of offensive language.

Social and political philosopher, Alice MacLachlan argues there are many emotions which can signify remorse. An apology could express “sorrow, shame, or anger […] guilt, sheepish[ness], heartbreak, despair [or] hope”. The emotion conveyed should be suitable to the scandal.

Lizzo shows remorse as empathetic:

“As a fat Black woman in America, I’ve had many hurtful words used against me so I overstand the power words can have (whether intentionally or in my case, unintentionally)”.

Lizzo outlines her motivations were “unintentional”, indicating she was not aware of the words offensive meaning. The lack in knowledge could have been used as an excuse, justification, or a way to avoid blame and responsibility. However Lizzo demonstrated accountability for the hurt she caused fans.

Justifications and excuses are considered a non-apology. Celebrities who use passive and vague language, generate further criticism on top of the scandal. The common phrase, “to anyone who I’ve offended”, implies no remorse and suggests the celebrity does not understand or care about what they are apologising for.

Non-apologies have been uttered by Jennifer Lawrence (“the way it was perceived was not funny”), Jeremy Renner (“it was not meant to be serious”), and Gina Rodriguez to name a few.

Read more:
Revisiting Will Smith’s slap and what it means to protect a loved one

Make amends

If action does not follow an apology, it can be considered “cheap talk”. Lizzo showcased immediate amends:

I’m proud to say there’s a new version of GRRRLS with a lyric change. This is the result of me listening and taking action.

By re-releasing the single, Lizzo amended her mistake, decreased negative reactions to the original lyric, and maintained her relationship with her fans.

Lizzo then summarised her intentions behind why she apologised stating:

As an influential artist I’m dedicated to being part of the change I’ve been waiting to see in the world.

The reasoning behind her apology aligns with her public values. It appears her intentions were pure, rather than only seeking forgiveness without any growth, learning or making amends.

Finally, Lizzo responded in a timely manner, delivering her apologetic statement three days after offence was caused. Timing an apology correctly and appropriately is a delicate balance. Too soon and the victims have not had enough time to process their hurt, and too late the apology will lose value and meaning.

A good celebrity apology is rare. We are consistently expecting apologies in the hope one day we might see one and this time, Lizzo delivered.

Sarah Scales does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. No justifications, excuses or box-ticking: the art of a successful celebrity apology – https://theconversation.com/no-justifications-excuses-or-box-ticking-the-art-of-a-successful-celebrity-apology-185366

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Iain White, Professor of Environmental Planning, University of Waikato

When it comes to infrastructure planning, there are plenty of promises, especially in times of crisis.

COVID-19 brought with it severe economic impacts and many governments quickly announced major infrastructure stimulus packages alongside legal reforms to fast track delivery.

The promise was that these emergency infrastructure investments would “build back better”, responding to the immediate economic challenges of COVID-19, as well as spur societal transformation.

The possibilities sparked plenty of hope. There was no shortage of public opinion pieces calling for things like a “green recovery” or a reduction in the geographical inequalities in jobs and well-being the pandemic helped reveal.

Transformational possibilities

Our research investigated the substance and the politics of these much vaunted transformational promises in Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom.

Each country had its own high profile crises, as well as existing social, economic, spatial, ecological and intergenerational challenges.

While an increase in infrastructure spending was promoted as a universal solution, the urgent timescale meant there was little focus on the details.

Read more:
Infrastructure spending has always involved social engineering

The urgency also limited any public debate and scrutiny of the proposed projects. Questions about their value, their purposes, and what communities would be affected and how, faced little examination.

Before the pandemic, all three countries had similar debates on infrastructure “deficits” and the need to reduce “red tape” from planning and public consultation.

Recognising infrastructure projects can become toxic and lead to electoral backlashes, politicians had also sought to depoliticise aspects of the decision-making process.

Each country established “independent” infrastructure commissions to develop national strategies and advise on priorities. Inevitably perhaps, these commissions confirmed the need for more infrastructure spending and for faster processes.

With the need for emergency response at the forefront, these preexisting arguments for reforms were quickly revived as the pandemic hit. Most of the decision-making power was given to technical experts and politicians.

In New Zealand, the Infrastructure Industry Reference Group was established to help select projects and bidders. Interested parties were given just two weeks to make submissions.

In the UK, Project Speed was set up and led by the Treasury, again with urgency very much to the fore.

The usual strategies in an unusual crisis

In the end, the economic impact of the pandemic was comparable to previous crises in terms of, for example, contractions in gross domestic product. The societal impact, on the other hand, was like no other crisis we have seen.

In hindsight, insufficient time was given to understanding how the pandemic was reshaping the way we live.

Profound changes to how work is done, whether working from home, commuting less, or moving out of the major urban centres, ultimately had little influence on the stimulus plans.

There was some progress in more transformational infrastructure investments, but this was limited by challenges over public acceptance. Initiatives to pursue low traffic neighbourhoods and cycle lanes met with significant local opposition in some areas, for example.

Read more:
Putting stimulus spending to the test: 4 ways a smart government can create jobs and cut emissions

Urgency played a role here too.

The short timescale limited space for public consultation, high quality designs, or to position these as part of a city-wide strategy.

As research for the UK’s Local Government Association found, more stakeholder engagement was needed for these schemes, not less, to help identify and address community concerns.

In stark contrast to such faltering progress, much more headway was apparent in introducing reforms to speed up decision making on large infrastructure projects, not least by reducing opportunities for public feedback.

The shift towards centralised and expert-led decision making facilitated a rapid “pipeline” of investment. Yet this pipeline curtailed the space for the necessary politics typically associated with more transformative futures.

So rather than allowing a major rethink of infrastructure priorities, existing reforms, narratives and projects all became entrenched, some of which were fast-tracked.

Promises unrealised

While well intentioned, the promises of building back better did not constitute the radical rupture initially promised. This failure is in part due to the urgent, expert-led processes which were ill-suited to more transformative futures.

A key message is that if we really want to be transformative in future crisis we must hold those making promises accountable.

Accountability can be achieved by resisting the closure of political space that typically accompanies emergency claims and asking the question: “what infrastructure ought to be built, for whom, where and why?”

This invites us to question the normalisation of new infrastructure as a solution – almost regardless of the problem – and instead challenges us to unpick the existing assumptions of promoting high growth and productivity, not least where these negatively affect climate change mitigation.

Towards ‘shovel-worthy’ projects

There seems to be growing acknowledgement, from Australia’s Grattan Institute, the OECD and others, that rapidly building infrastructure is not the answer to the complex crises we face.

Additionally, the infrastructure we do build should be limited in scale and localised – focusing on creating coherent networks of smaller infrastructure projects as much as headline-grabbing mega-projects.

Read more:
Putting stimulus spending to the test: 4 ways a smart government can create jobs and cut emissions

This two-pronged approach would better reflect the more local ways in which life has been conducted in cities since the early years of the pandemic.

We argue that to chart a different pathway, politicians will need to spend more time actively identifying “shovel worthy” alternatives – projects that cultivate more equitable and climate-friendly cities and regions of the future.

“Shovel-worthy” means working with local communities and planning for infrastructure in an integrated way that centres climate justice and moves away from mega-projects.

Engaging with local knowledge and allowing open public scrutiny will greatly assist policy makers in identifying the kinds of infrastructure that can better address current inequalities and facilitate the societal transitions that cities and regions desperately need.

Iain White receives funding from the Aotearoa New Zealand Government National Science Challenge: Resilience to Nature’s Challenges – Kia manawaroa – Ngā Ākina o Te Ao Tūroa. Iain White also receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s Endeavour Fund to research issues connected to flood risk mapping and better decision making.

Crystal Legacy receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council and the Henry Halloran Trust.

Graham Haughton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Shovel-ready but not shovel-worthy: how COVID-19 infrastructure projects missed the opportunity to transform the way we live – https://theconversation.com/shovel-ready-but-not-shovel-worthy-how-covid-19-infrastructure-projects-missed-the-opportunity-to-transform-the-way-we-live-184640

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The Albanese government has launched a concerted effort to nip in the bud a threatened resumption of the people smuggling trade, with a visit by Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil to Sri Lanka and a $50 million aid package for that economically-beleaguered country.

Several boats have set out from Sri Lanka in recent weeks. Mostly, the boats are being intercepted by the Sri Lankan authorities. Any making it into Australian waters have the passengers returned.

The Australian government is not currently providing details of boat activity.

The people smugglers started to look to a resumption of their trade just before the election, when a change of government looked likely. The Morrison government had text messages sent out on election day about the interception of a boat, hoping to sway some voters.

O’Neil is meeting Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and Foreign Minister, G. L. Peiris.

Early last week O’Neil and Peiris spoke by phone. The visit has been planned for a few days and coincides with the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

A statement from O’Neil said her Sri Lankan discussions would cover “how Australia can deepen cooperation and assist Sri Lanka as the country faces very difficult economic times, as well as strengthening engagement on transnational crime, including people smuggling”.

The Australian aid is directed to food and health needs. Announcing the package, Foreign Minister Penny Wong said the country faced “its worst economic crisis in 70 years, leading to shortages of food, medicine and fuel”.

She said Australia would contribute an immediate $22 million to the World Food Programme for emergency food assistance to help three million people in Sri Lanka meet their daily needs.

The government will also provide $23 million in development assistance to Sri Lanka in 2022-23. “This will support health services, and economic recovery, with a strong emphasis on protecting those at risk, especially women and girls,” Wong said.

The money is in addition to the $5 million Australia recently provided to United Nations agencies for Sri Lanka.

“Australia has a close and long-standing relationship with Sri Lanka. Not only do we want to help the people of Sri Lanka in its time of need, there are also deeper consequences for the region,” Wong said.

Asked what message the government hoped to send to people smugglers and the Sri Lankan government during O’Neil’s visit, Prime Minister Albanese said: “That people who arrive by boat will not be settled here.

“People smugglers seek to trade in misery. They seek to mislead, [they are] often run by criminal syndicates.

“We will be strong when it comes to our borders. […] We will look after our international obligations to do the right thing. But the right thing is not having a free-for-all whereby people who turn up will be settled.

“We understand that there are issues in Sri Lanka and that the wrong messages are being given by people smugglers. Our message will be very clear,” Albanese said.

One of the first acts of the Albanese government was to allow the Sri Lankan “Biloela” family to return to the Queensland town. Albanese was subsequently pictured with the family, a photo some fear could be used by people smugglers as part of their advertising pitch.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Albanese government mobilises diplomacy and aid in effort to counter Sri Lanka people smugglers – https://theconversation.com/albanese-government-mobilises-diplomacy-and-aid-in-effort-to-counter-sri-lanka-people-smugglers-185403

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rabindra Nepal, Associate Professor of Economics, University of Wollongong

The shock suspension last week of Australia’s wholesale electricity market rekindled an age-old debate about whether the energy sector should be nationalised – in other words, owned and controlled by government.

The calls came after electricity prices spiked and supply tightened along Australia’s east coat, triggering a chain of events which eventually forced the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) to suspend the national electricity market.

So should the flow of energy in Australia come under public control? And even if it’s feasible, would it prevent crises like the one we’ve just seen?

I’m an academic in energy economics with a special interest in electricity network privatisation. As my work has revealed, nationalising electricity is not a silver bullet. To operate most effectively, the sector needs to balance the roles of private competition and government regulation.

What’s caused the energy crisis?

A recent cold snap meant more people were turning on their heaters, so using more electricity. Compounding that, prices on the wholesale electricity market – where generators are paid for the power they produce – surged for two reasons.

First, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has driven up global coal and gas prices.

Second, about a quarter of coal power stations feeding the national grid were offline due to unplanned outages or maintenance. At times, renewable energy outputs also fell.

All this caused wholesale electricity prices to surge, which prompted AEMO to impose a cap on prices. The capped price was less than it costs some plants to generate power, prompting them to withdraw their capacity from the market. The situation became impossible for AEMO to manage so it stepped in to suspend the market indefinitely to prevent disastrous blackouts.

Generators must now supply the market with electricity and will be compensated for losses.

Public vs private

The national electricity market was created in 1998, and comprises electricity generation, transmission, distribution and retailers. It covers all states and territories except Western Australia and the Northern Territory, and delivers around 80% of the nation’s electricity.

Since the 1990s, state governments have tended to sell off power assets to private operators. The system is now privatised to varying degrees.

In Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory, electricity supply is fully owned by state governments. In Queensland, the state government owns most of the electricity supply system and only the retail market has been privatised.

The electricity system is mostly privatised in Victoria and South Australia, and partially privatised in New South Wales. However, governments still regulate electricity prices in Victoria, the Australian Capital Territory, Tasmania and regional Queensland.

The energy market suspension isn’t the only energy crisis Australia has faced in recent times. In 2016, the South Australian power market – a mostly privatised system – was suspended for 13 days.

Energy supply and affordability crises in the national electricity market have increasingly coincided with growing private ownership.

Western Australia, which isn’t part of the national market and has a system featuring significant state intervention in gas supply, has avoided the energy crisis currently gripping the eastern states.

My research found privatisation can lead to improved energy market efficiency, but only if coupled with strong regulation of the sector. This suggests states with fully privatised energy markets should shift to more government involvement. It also suggests public-owned states should privatise some assets.

Nationalising isn’t a silver bullet. That’s because market outcomes are the best outcomes for consumers if the market is functioning well. Having competition is the best way to bring retail and wholesale costs down.

But if electricity prices are so high that some consumers can’t afford it, it’s the responsibility of government to provide electricity to them – through subsidies, for instance.

Read more:
What’s a grid, anyway? Making sense of the complex beast that is Australia’s electricity network

Markets and government should co-exist

Experience from energy markets overseas shows that for a complicated industry like electricity to work, markets and government policies should co-exist.

Chile’s power supplies were state-owned until 1982. Then, it became the first country in the world to adopt a competitive power sector by establishing a wholesale electricity market. Today, that market is well-functioning because energy prices tend to reflect the long-term costs of producing electricity.

The success of this privately owned system is due to strong government-initiated reforms. They include effective regulation of transmission and distribution networks, strengthening sector institutions and modifying auction rules in the wholesale market to encourage new bidders.

Chile has also become a renewable energy champion while having a privatised electricity system, because market reforms were supported by policies to promote clean energy.

Other Latin American countries with market-based electricity systems, such as Argentina, also allowed for varying degrees of government involvement to make the market work.

As climate change worsens and countries struggle to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, market-based electricity systems will become more difficult.

Everyone pays the cost of emissions in the form of global warming. But these costs aren’t factored into the costs of generating electricity. So without a carbon price, there’s little incentive for generators in an entirely privatised market to reduce their emissions.

The United Kingdom has recognised this. It has significantly intervened in the electricity market by introducing a mechanism to keep prices stable for consumers, and guaranteeing extra capacity in times of tight supply.

This helps to meet its climate change objectives by preventing supply shortfalls during the transition to renewables.

What lies ahead?

Australia’s National Electricity Market lacks the right balance between state and market.

The strong push towards the market that began in the early 1990s in Victoria, South Australia and New South Wales now needs to be clawed back somewhat. And in Queensland and Tasmania where markets can be established, this should be done – with policies to support energy security and environmental sustainability.

The experience of the UK and Latin America with partly state-owned electricity systems suggests Australia should not be sceptical of such reforms.

Active government involvement in the electricity sector is necessary for Australia to meet its ambitious climate targets, but this doesn’t mean totally abandoning the power of market forces.

Rabindra Nepal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Should Australian governments nationalise the electricity sector? It’s not that simple – https://theconversation.com/should-australian-governments-nationalise-the-electricity-sector-its-not-that-simple-185203

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nathan Bartlett, Associate Professor, School of Biomedical Sciences and Pharmacy, University of Newcastle

Restrictions have eased, international borders are open and influenza is back in Australia after a two-year absence.

Suddenly, major flu outbreaks are occurring across the country, catching many off guard.

Flu vaccinations aim to protect against four influenza viruses that cause disease in humans (two subtypes from influenza A and two from influenza B).

But vaccine-mediated protection varies each year depending on how well the vaccine matches the disease-causing influenza viruses that are circulating at a given time. Vaccine effectiveness – a real-world measure based on the proportion of vaccinated people who still develop the flu – ranges from 16% to 60%.

However, it’s still important to get your flu shot. If you’ve been vaccinated and still get the flu, you’re less likely to get as sick.

Why it’s difficult to predict which subtypes will dominate

Of the four types of influenza viruses that exist in nature, two cause significant disease in humans: influenza A and influenza B.

The 2022 influenza vaccine is quadrivalent (targets four distinct viruses): two influenza A viruses (subtypes H3N2 and H1N1) and two influenza B viruses from distinct lineages.

Within each flu A subtype further genetic variation can arise, with mutations (known as genetic drift) generating many viral variants that are classified into “clades” and sub-clades.

H3N2 is particularly good at generating lots of diversity in this way. So predicting exactly which H3N2 virus to target in the vaccine is especially difficult.

Read more:
Should I get the 2022 flu vaccine? And how effective is it?

A key challenge for flu vaccines is the decision for which virus to target has to be made months ahead of time. The the H3N2 virus in the Australian flu vaccine (A/Darwin/9/2021) was chosen in September 2021 to enable the vaccine to be manufactured and distributed in time for the 2022 winter.

There is no guarantee a different H3N2 virus that isn’t so well targeted by the vaccine won’t arrive in the country in the months leading into winter and start causing disease.

Another factor that has made predicting which H3N2 virus to target in the vaccine uniquely difficult for 2022 is the lack of data on which viruses were dominant in the preceding flu seasons, both in Australia and on the other side of the Equator.

With travel restrictions easing towards the end of 2021, flu cases did start to reappear during the northern hemisphere 2021-22 winter. But the lack of flu cases during the preceding seasons (due to COVID) meant the data used to predict which viruses to target was inadequate.

The US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) analysed data from more than 3,000 children and found a vaccine effectiveness of just 16% protection from mild to moderate disease from H3N2. Protection from more severe disease was just 14%.

We don’t know which subtypes will circulate in Australia

Data about flu vaccine effectiveness in the southern hemisphere 2022 winter isn’t yet available, and it’s unclear how protective the current vaccine is against the currently circulating disease-causing subtypes.

While H3N2 viruses appears to be driving some disease now, other flu viruses may become more prevalent later in the season.

The flu vaccine is a quadrivalent vaccine, so in addition to influenza A H3N2, it will protect against another influenza A subtype (H1N1) and two distinct lineages of influenza B virus. These viruses don’t change as rapidly as H3N2, so it’s more likely the vaccine will give better protection against these other influenza viruses.

Even if vaccine protection against H3N2 is lower than usual this year, the vaccine could make the difference between recovering at home versus ending up in hospital.

Read more:
Which flu shot should I choose? And what are cell-based and ‘adjuvanted’ vaccines?

So who should get a flu shot and when?

The flu vaccine offers the highest level of protection in the first three to four months months after vaccination. The season generally peaks between June and September – although this year we have seen a much earlier than usual start to the flu season. It’s unclear whether this early start will mean a longer flu season or an early finish. So it’s not too late to get vaccinated.

Flu vaccines are recommended for everyone aged six months and over, but are particularly important for people who are more at risk of complications from influenza, including:

• Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged six months and over
• children aged six months to five years
• pregnant women
• people aged 65 years or over
• people aged six months or over who have medical conditions that mean they have a higher risk of getting serious disease.

What if you still get the flu?

If you develop flu symptoms, isolate and see your GP for an influenza PCR test to determine whether you are indeed infected with influenza, particularly if you’re in the higher-risk groups.

Specific antivirals for influenza can help, if given early. To ensure rapid access to particularly vulnerable aged-care residents, aged-care facilities are being stocked with the flu antiviral drug Tamiflu.

In New South Wales, free drive-through clinics now offer testing for influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID. Other states and territories may follow.

Nathan Bartlett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why can you still get influenza if you’ve had a flu shot? – https://theconversation.com/why-can-you-still-get-influenza-if-youve-had-a-flu-shot-184327

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milton Speer, Visiting Fellow, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney

You wouldn’t know it from the torrential rains that have inundated large parts of New South Wales and Queensland this year, but average late-autumn rainfall over southeast Australia has declined significantly since the 1990s.

Less rain in these areas is an expected consequence of global warming. In both the northern and southern hemispheres, the paths of the weather systems that bring rain in the middle latitudes have been moving away from the equator and towards the poles.

Read more:
Australia’s dry June is a sign of what’s to come

We studied in detail the drop in rainfall during April and May in southeast Australia, and found it is just one consequence of far-reaching changes in the behaviour of high-altitude winds over Australia.

Jet streams

These high-altitude winds are called jet streams: narrow bands of rapidly flowing air that typically occur at altitudes around the cruising height of commercial passenger aircraft. In April and May, the westerly jet stream over southeast Australia normally splits into a northern branch (called the subtropical jet) and a southern branch (called the polar-front jet).

Since the mid 1990s, the location of this split has moved and the speeds of the winds involved have also changed. We found these changes, which are related to global warming, are responsible for a decrease in the number of low-pressure systems bringing rain to southeast Australia.

The maps you might see on weather apps or TV forecasts usually show what’s going on at ground level: high- and low-pressure systems, cold fronts, and so on. However, these ground-level systems are largely driven by the jet streams and related atmospheric processes.

Humidity and rotation

As well as the changes in the jet stream, there are two other important changes reducing rainfall in the early cool season.

First, the air over parts of inland southeast Australia has become significantly drier since the 1990s.

And second, areas of strongly rotating air have moved further east and south, over the Tasman Sea.

Both humidity and air rotation are important contributors to the development of low-pressure areas that bring rain. As a result of these changes, there has been a significant decrease in late autumn rainfall in southeast Australia.

The bigger picture

Much of the variation in rainfall from year to year depends on the phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a large-scale climate phenomenon over the Pacific Ocean. When this is in one phase, called La Niña, eastern Australia experiences lower temperatures and higher rainfall – in the opposite phase, El Niño, it’s the other way around.

In the absence of La Niña years, and particularly groups of repeat La Niña events such as those of 2010–12 and 2020–22, we have seen extreme droughts following dry summers and dry late-autumn periods.

Read more:
Droughts and flooding rains: it takes three oceans to explain Australia’s wild 21st-century weather

Changes in the atmospheric circulation, especially in the jet stream location and strength, have contributed to the multiple-year droughts we have seen since the 1990s, namely, the periods 1997–2007 and 2017–2019. For example, rain-bearing “east coast lows” are often forming further south, and there are fewer cut-off low pressure systems over inland southeast Australia.

Unfavourable winds

The effects of drought at ground level are easy to see.

The drought periods since 1997 have killed huge numbers of river fish, reduced the viability of broad acre and pastoral farming and other economic industries, and reduced river flows and sustainable access to water in many areas. In a future warming climate, these drought periods are expected to continue.

However, changes to the jet stream also have less obvious effects at higher altitudes. In particular, these changes have implications for air transport.

Changes in speed, location and structure of jet streams will mean planes will use more fuel on many routes, including in Australia. Less favourable winds, and an increase in sudden “clear-air turbulence”, will increase aviation fuel consumption.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Changes in the jet stream are steering autumn rain away from southeast Australia – https://theconversation.com/changes-in-the-jet-stream-are-steering-autumn-rain-away-from-southeast-australia-184649

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Odhran O’Brien, PhD Candidate in History, The University of Western Australia

In a wealthy country like Australia, a time with no government schools seems unimaginable. But back in the 1840s, when the Sisters of Mercy opened the first seconadary school in Western Australia, there were only a few tiny private schools. Many children, particularly girls, received no formal education.

Women religious, or nuns, made education more accessible. Their way of life also offered one of few leadership opportunities for women.

These women demonstrated entrepreneurial and diplomatic skill while developing education in Australia. Their work required them to navigate hostile male hierarchies, religious discrimination, class struggles and complex relationships with Aboriginal peoples.

Historians have documented part of this story, but there is a way to go. In a country enamoured with egalitarianism, the lives of women religious speak of the broader historical reality of inequality.

Where did these women come from?

Religious orders consist of people living apart from society but as a community in accordance with the spiritual rule of their founder. Catherine McAuley (1778-1841) founded the Sisters of Mercy in Dublin when she opened the first House of Mercy dedicated to serving the poor, sick and uneducated.

Catherine’s approach to assisting Ireland’s burgeoning poor was radical. The community consisted of two classes of sisters. Choir sisters were educated, middle-class women and generally served as teachers. Lay sisters were poor and working class and operated the kitchen or laundry.

Ursula Frayne (1816-1885), who opened the first secondary school in Western Australia as well as schools in Victoria in the mid-19th century, had trained with McAuley. In 1845 Bishop John Brady visited the sisters’ Dublin convent and requested the mother superior send six sisters to Western Australia with Frayne as the leader.

While sailing to Western Australia aboard The Elizabeth, a member of the missionary group travelling with Bishop Brady was a young French monk, Leandre Fonteinne, who ominously noted:

“His Lordship is only concerned […] for the six women religious that he is bringing along with us. They are and for quite a number of years to come will be a burden to the mission.”

What did they do in Australia?

After arriving in Perth, in 1846 the sisters became the first female religious teaching order to establish a school in Australia. Having navigated sectarism in Ireland, they decided to offer a general education to all Christians. The sisters prioritised Aboriginal people, immigrant Irish orphan girls, the poor and the uneducated. The sisters established a fee-paying school, benevolent institution and Western Australia’s first high school.

Coming from a prosperous Dublin family, Frayne was class-conscious but the distinction between choir and lay nuns was unsustainable in colonial Perth. Relying on the bishop was not an option that would allow them to progress their enterprise.

For these women to be self-sufficient, everyone had to do domestic duties. Frayne herself became a baker.

Although Bishop Brady promised financial support, in 1850 Frayne travelled to Colombo, Malta, Rome, Florence, Paris, England and Ireland to raise funds. In March 1851, she returned to Perth with £450. She gave £157 to the bishop, who was broke.

By 1853 the nuns could afford a new £800 school building. As the sisters’ workload increased, they applied to Dublin for “strong” lay sisters.

Two of the longest-serving lay sisters sent from Dublin were Catherine O’Reilly and Catherine Strahan. O’Reilly filled multiple roles, including carpenter. She was eventually promoted to choir sister and helped to establish schools at locations such as Geraldton.

Strahan’s trajectory was different. Strahan was a lay sister at 30 and provided essential services to the convent kitchen and laundry until she died at 67.

In 1857, Frayne moved to Melbourne to establish a new school as Brady’s replacement as bishop, Joseph Serra, frequently interfered in the order’s leadership. Frayne felt much of his interference unneccessary. Such interference peaked in Queensland, where the Sisters of Mercy had established the state’s first secondary school for girls. The local bishop withheld part of their government salary and exposed them to undernourishment and an early death.

Undeniably important yet curiously anonymous

Women religious operated significant educational enterprises. Historian Stephanie Burley considers female Irish teaching orders as an empire within the British Empire. Their classes bridged the political, religious and cultural norms of the Irish Catholic Church and the British Empire, acting as a pacifying force between the two spheres.

Unfortunately, as historian Colin Barr notes:

“Unfortunately, historians have too often seen these women as an undifferentiated mass, undeniably important yet curiously anonymous. Yet [they] were not merely the passive transmitters of male ideas or initiatives.”

As a leader, Frayne has been the subject of biographies. However, Catherine O’Reilly and Catherine Strahan remained cloistered.

The women who laboured in domestic roles in religious communities deserve greater attention. Although historians are increasingly showing interest in the broader role of women religious in Australian society, aspects of their influence remain opaque.

Odhran O’Brien is affiliated with the Catholic Archdiocese of Perth as the archivist.

– ref. Religious women set up some of Australia’s first schools, but their history remains veiled – https://theconversation.com/religious-women-set-up-some-of-australias-first-schools-but-their-history-remains-veiled-177135