Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Doug Drury, Professor/Head of Aviation, CQUniversity Australia

The American aerospace giant Boeing has been synonymous with safe air travel for decades. Since the 1990s, Boeing and its European competitor Airbus have dominated the market for large passenger jets.

But this year, Boeing has been in the news for all the wrong reasons. In January, an emergency door plug blew off a Boeing 737 MAX in mid flight, triggering an investigation from United States federal regulators.

More recently, we have seen a Boeing plane lose a tyre while taking off, another flight turned back as the plane was leaking fluid, an apparent engine fire, a landing gear collapse, a stuck rudder pedal, and a plane “dropping” in flight and injuring dozens of passengers. A Boeing engineer who had raised concerns regarding quality control during the manufacturing process on the company’s 787 and 737 MAX planes also died earlier this week, apparently of a self-inflicted gunshot wound.

As members of the travelling public, should we be concerned? Well, yes and no.

Read more:
Boeing door plug blowout highlights a possible crisis of competence − an aircraft safety expert explains

Many problems, but not all can be blamed on Boeing

The recent parade of events has certainly been dramatic – but not all of them can be blamed on Boeing. Five incidents occurred on aircraft owned and operated by United Airlines and were related to factors outside the manufacturer’s control, like maintenance issues, potential foreign object debris, and possible human error.

A United Airlines 777 flying from San Francisco to Japan lost a tyre on takeoff, a maintenance issue not related to Boeing. The aircraft landed safely in Los Angeles.

A United Airlines flight from Sydney to Los Angeles had to return to Sydney due to a “maintenance issue” after a fluid was seen leaking from the aircraft on departure.

A United Airlines 737-900 flying from Texas to Florida ended up with some plastic bubble wrap in the engine, causing a suspected compressor stall. This is a disruption of air flow to an operating engine, making it “backfire” and emit flames.

A United Airlines 737 Max flying from Tennessee to Texas suffered a gear collapse after a normal landing. The pilot continued to the end of the runway before exiting onto a taxiway – possibly at too high a speed – and the aircraft ended up in the grass and the left main landing gear collapsed.

The fifth event occurred on a United Airlines 737-8 flight from the Bahamas to New Jersey. The pilots reported that the rudder pedals, which control the left and right movement of the aircraft in flight, were stuck in the neutral position during landing.

Manufacturing quality concerns

The exit door plug failure in January occurred on an Alaska Airlines flight. US regulators are currently investigating Boeing’s manufacturing quality assurance as a result.

The door plug was installed by a Boeing subcontractor called Spirit AeroSystem. The door plug bolts were not properly secured and the plug door fell off in flight. The same aircraft had a series of pressurisation alarms on two previous flights, and was scheduled for a maintenance inspection at the completion of the flight.

Spirit got its start after Boeing shut down its own manufacturing operations in Kansas and Oklahoma, and Boeing is now in the process of buying the company to improve quality oversight. Spirit currently works with Airbus, as well, though that may change.

Read more:
Why did Alaska Airlines Flight 1282 have a sealed-off emergency exit in the first place? The answer comes down to money

What changed at Boeing

Critics say the culture at Boeing has changed since Airbus became a major competitor in the early 2000s. The company has been accused of shifting its focus to profit at the expense of quality engineering.

Former staff have raised concerns over tight production schedules, which increased the pressure on employees to finish the aircraft. This caused many engineers to question the process, and the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to fine Boeing for lapses in quality oversight after tools and debris were found on aircraft being inspected.

Several employees have testified before US Congress on the production issues regarding quality control. Based on the congressional findings, the FAA began to inspect Boeing’s processes more closely.

Several Boeing employees noted there was a high staff turnover rate during the COVID pandemic. This is not unique to Boeing, as all manufacturing processes and airline maintenance facilities around the globe were also hit with high turnover.

As a result, there is an acute shortage of qualified maintenance engineers, as well as pilots. These shortages have created several issues with the airline industry successfully returning to the pre-pandemic levels of 2019. Airlines and maintenance training centres around the globe are working hard to train replacements, but this takes time as one cannot become a qualified engineer or airline pilot overnight.

So, is it still safe to fly on Boeing planes? Yes it is. Despite dramatic incidents in the news and social media posts poking fun at the company, air travel is still extremely safe, and that includes Boeing.

We can expect these issues with Boeing planes now will be corrected. The financial impact has been significant – so even a profit-driven company will demand change.

Doug Drury does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Should you be concerned about flying on Boeing planes? – https://theconversation.com/should-you-be-concerned-about-flying-on-boeing-planes-225675

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Hughes, Lecturer, Research School of Management, Australian National University

Firebrand senator Jacqui Lambie is furious. Amid the Tasmanian election campaign (in which she’s running candidates), her party, the Jacqui Lambie Network, has fallen victim to one of the many pitfalls in the world of online political advertising.

Her party’s website is lambienetwork.com.au. You might understand her anger, then, after finding out the Tasmanian Liberal party created a website to campaign against her, called lambienetwork.com. It’s a blink-and-you’ll-miss-it difference.

This is a textbook example of what’s known as cybersquatting. It’s when internet domain names that are similar to existing trademarked material or the names of people or organisations are bought up by competitors to use against the original. In fact, the major parties have purchased a heap of domain names.

As political parties desperately battle for voters’ attention in a world full of distractions and dwindling trust in government, cybersquatting is one of many online tools in the toolkit. But the toolkit is full of blunt instruments that may only be effective on a minority of people. The true damage is being done to the majority, who have less and less faith in politics and its institutions.

Read more:
All governments are guilty of running political ads on the public purse. Here’s how to stop it

A crowded, manufactured landscape

In commercial marketing, there’s a focus on long-term brand building. In political marketing, there’s just one goal: winning.

With such high pressure, and little time to hit objectives, parties and candidates use highly emotive messaging and narratives to drive rapid attention and engagement, and hopefully convince people to vote for them.

With markets splintered into ever-smaller segments, based at times on very specific needs, social media has helped move voters quickly and developed narratives around leaders’ personal brands.

Instagram was used successfully by former prime minister Scott Morrison with his Scomosas and attempt at Bunnings DIY.

His successor, Anthony Albanese, has replicated that strategy, letting us get a glimpse of who he really is, even having a Twitter/X account for his dog Toto. This is aimed at developing resonance and building up likeability for his brand.

Of course, as any royal watcher or user of social media can tell you, curated images are exactly that: manufactured, for us. So we are trusting this method less and less. This will only get worse the longer voters are exposed to it.

Stories such as that in the 2022 federal election of Labor-aligned groups considering paying influencers to post friendly content, doesn’t help either.

As a result, when we see content posted by an influencer, we’re now more likely to be sceptical. Do they really like this product, or are they just being paid to say they do?

‘Angertainment’ is highly effective

So it’s back to square one. Enter negativity, or “angertainment”.

Reality shows are full of it. One example is the villain edit, where certain contestants are framed to be the antagonist for the sake of drama. There’s also the cued music to make us feel this is the “season-defining moment”.

They do this for the same reasons politicians have done it for decades. It works. It gets our attention. We get engaged. We change our vote. Ratings of these shows don’t lie.

In the past, this was called “wedge politics”, as it wedged one group of voters against others. A party or candidate could then become that group’s champion, and hello election victory. Simple narrative construction.

Read more:
We tracked election ad spending for 4,000 Facebook pages. Here’s what they’re posting about – and why cybersecurity is the bigger concern

This was easy when competition for our attention was less fierce. John Howard’s 2001 election-opening “we decide” statement about immigration was pure wedge politics.

The aim is still the same now, but in a competitive environment for our attention and retention, modern methods have allowed for new ways to reach the average voter. Having not seen them before, people are more susceptible to believing them.

Clive Palmer has used spam text messages over the years to grab some attention, although it hasn’t necessarily translated into electoral success.

A more inventive use of the internet to campaign was Pauline Hanson’s cartoon series. The first three episodes racked up 750,000 views in two weeks on YouTube.

Both Labor and Liberal have had a strong presence on Snapchat. In 2016, the Liberals were among the first to make a filter on the app. Labor was the only major party to use it during the 2022 federal election campaign.

These are all new ways of communicating a party’s key messages, including scare or smear campaigns.

Think “Mediscare”, so well done by Labor in 2016 via SMS, and then the revenge sequel of death taxes in 2019 by the Coalition. They used Facebook groups very well.

Angertainment is now seen as being more likely to get the message across, and thereby victory, than anything else.

A significant aspect of these campaigns was disinformation, including the misrepresentation or impersonation of candidates. Senator David Pocock was a key target in the ACT in 2022, but successfully ran a challenge through the Australian Electoral Commission.

But this is 2024, and two years is an aeon in social media. The Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) website trick we saw this week is an old-school one. Unlike some of the other strategies, it’s not effective. It is, however, childish.

So why bother? The attacking party would be obvious to most, if not by the authorised name as required by electoral laws. This dilutes the effect and it likely reinforces the reasons to vote for the JLN.

But political parties do it to capitalise on those who don’t realise they’re receiving a message in bad faith. Even if it’s a minority, it’s someone. In a tight political climate, it might be enough to tip the scales in their favour.

The collateral damage, of course, is the spread of misinformation and public disillusionment with politics and elections.

Read more:
Few restrictions, no spending limit, and almost no oversight: welcome to political advertising in Australia

Can we stop this?

We can, easily.

Cybersquatting is in a grey area legally. There are gaps in the relevant legislation that make it very difficult for those affected to get websites taken down. They’re often managed by international organisations with laborious processes.

But the government can ban cyber hijacking or squatting of politicians or parties’ web addresses or social channels. It can restrict negative advertising, and bring in green ticks to verify truthful advertising.

Government can also ensure social media companies take more responsibility for content, and tolerate fewer excuses for poor behaviour. This isn’t restricting freedom of speech, only restricting disinformation. Some independents have already introduced bills in parliament on this issue.

If it’s so easy, why hasn’t it been done? Because that requires political support. Considering politicians are the ones who benefit most from the existing framework, we don’t need a negative ad to tell us how unlikely they are to do anything about it anytime soon.

Andrew Hughes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The Jacqui Lambie Network is the latest victim of ‘cybersquatting’. It’s the tip of the iceberg of negative political ads online – https://theconversation.com/the-jacqui-lambie-network-is-the-latest-victim-of-cybersquatting-its-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-of-negative-political-ads-online-225774

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicole Lee, Adjunct Professor at the National Drug Research Institute (Melbourne based), Curtin University

Widely reported data released from the National Wastewater Drug Monitoring Program this week appears to show the rising use of methamphetamine (also known as methylamphetamine). You may know it as speed (the powder form) or ice (the crystal form).

But this reporting appears to contradict data released in recent weeks from the National Drug Strategy Household Survey. This 2022-23 survey shows methamphetamine use is falling and is at its lowest in more than a decade.

So what’s going on? Is methamphetamine use rising or falling?

Read more:
Meth use is declining in Australia – but the public still sees it as the most worrying drug

Looking at wastewater

The National Wastewater Drug Monitoring Program collects samples of wastewater from sewage treatment plants. University researchers then test samples for traces of different drugs.

The way the samples are analysed differentiates between drugs that have been consumed and drugs that have been disposed of before consumption. This means we know the drugs detected have actually been used and excreted via urine, not just thrown down the toilet.

Read more:
Drugs in bugs: 69 pharmaceuticals found in invertebrates living in Melbourne’s streams

But there are limitations

The report of the wastewater data mentions measuring “consumption”, “demand” and “harm” from drugs. But the wastewater program doesn’t measure these directly.

It only measures overall amount of a drug consumed in the community at a single point in time.

Wastewater data can’t tell us whether a small number of people have used a large amount of a drug or a large number of people each used a very small amount of a drug. It can only tell us the overall volume of a drug used.

Some of the sampling sites have been chosen specifically because the Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission, which runs the program, has an actual or potential concern that drug use is high in those areas. This kind of targeted sampling may overestimate how much of a drug has been used across Australia or at any given time point.

Read more:
Weekly Dose: ice and speed, the drugs that kept soldiers awake and a president young

Surveys give us different answers

The National Drug Strategy Household Survey is a sample of, usually, around 20,000-25,000 households in Australia. It asks one person from each household aged 14 years and over about their use of a range of drugs in the past year and in their lifetime. Researchers refer to this as “self report”.

The survey asks about quantity, frequency and harms of drug use, and reports the data by a range of demographic measures such as age and gender. It also surveys the community’s attitudes to drugs. So the data is much more detailed than wastewater data.

Surveys have limitations too

The National Drug Strategy Household Survey relies on people being honest about their drug use.

People tend to forget or downplay their use, especially for illicit drugs, so the survey results likely underestimate use. But the underestimate is probably similar across years because the way the data is collected has remained very similar across time.

However, as the survey is anonymous and there are no consequences to disclosing this information (for example, no risk of being arrested for drug use) it’s probably reasonably accurate.

The survey is best for looking at trends over time.

Read more:
Young people are drinking less in real life. But film and TV paints a different picture

So what can we make of this?

Over the years, there have been some ups and downs in methamphetamine volumes reported in the wastewater data. However, the average national volume (in kilos) of methamphetamine reported in the latest wastewater report is pretty close to the average for the past seven years.

The most recent report shows an increase in consumption per 1,000 population in regional areas, but a decrease in capital cities, representing an overall decrease. The total volume of methamphetamine used has increased, however. But as the population has also increased during that time, this complicates the picture.

Changes up and down in volume of drug used could also be seasonal or in response to short-term changes in availability. So it’s better to look at long-term changes over time together with other data.

The proportion of the population who report using methamphetamine in the National Drug Strategy Household Survey has fallen, continuing a long-term trend.

Read more:
2,200 deaths, 32,000 hospital admissions, 15.7 billion dollars: what opioid misuse costs Australia in a year

What’s the take-home message?

These two datasets measure different things at different time points using different methods.

The wastewater data found the average volume of methamphetamine had increased, but consumption per 1,000 population had decreased. This drop in consumption is in line with the survey, which found a drop in the percentage of people reporting methamphetamine use, the lowest in over a decade.

So is methamphetamine use in Australia rising or falling? Both sets of data actually suggest use is falling, even though you’d never know it from the recent headlines.

It’s a good demonstration of why we shouldn’t take data in isolation and why we need to consider a range of factors in interpreting data.

The last thing we want is sensationalised headlines, leading to the type of stigma that makes it harder for people who use drugs to ask for support.

If you are worried about your own or someone else’s drug use or just want further information you can call the free and confidential National Alcohol and Other Drug Hotline on 1800 250 015 or contact Counselling Online. Both services are available 24/7.

Nicole Lee works as a paid consultant in the alcohol and other drug sector. She has previously been awarded grants by state and federal governments, National Health and Medical Research Council and other public funding bodies for alcohol and other drug research. She is a Board member of drug checking organisation The Loop Australia. She is CEO at Hello Sunday Morning, which receives funding from the Australian government.

– ref. Is meth use really going up? Let’s look at the evidence behind the latest scary headlines – https://theconversation.com/is-meth-use-really-going-up-lets-look-at-the-evidence-behind-the-latest-scary-headlines-225657

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stanislav Roudavski, Senior Lecturer in Digital Architectural Design, The University of Melbourne

When we make roads, houses or farmland, we often find large old trees in the way. Our response is often to lop off offending branches or even cut the tree down.

This is a bad idea. The more we learn about large old trees, the more we realise their fundamental importance to birds, mammals, insects, plants and other inhabitants. More than 300 species of Australian birds and mammals need large old trees to live.

Why focus on mature trees? It’s because they have many features that younger trees simply don’t have: cracks, hollows, dead branches, peeling bark and large quantities of nectar and seeds. The limbs and leaves that fall on the ground make excellent homes for many small creatures.

Our new research sheds light on the importance of such grand old trees for birds. We used lidar (scanning using lasers) to map small, medium and large tree crowns in unprecedented detail. On average, we found large old trees had 383 metres of the horizontal or dead branches preferred by birds, while medium trees had very little and young trees none. Some old trees had almost 2 kilometres of branches.

Why are branches so important?

If we think of long, overhanging branches, chances are we may think “threat”. Some large trees can drop limbs without warning, although some arborists have pointed out the threat is overstated. To reduce the risk, councils and land managers may remove the limbs of large old trees.

But if you cut down a 300-year-old river red gum, you can’t simply replace it with a sapling of the same species. It will take centuries for the sapling to take up the same ecological role as its predecessor.

In our research, we mapped more than 100,000 branches from many millions of laser samples and recorded how birds use branches through years of field observations.

Read more:
The illegal killing of 265 trees on Sydney’s North Shore is not just vandalism. It’s theft on a grand scale

When we spot a bird using a branch, we can safely infer the bird has chosen it for a reason, whether resting, socialising, feeding, hunting or nesting.

What our data shows is that not all branches are equal. Birds find it easier to perch on horizontal or slightly inclined branches. Branches with few or no leaves offer clear vantage points for birds to land, hunt or see predators. You may have noticed crows and currawongs choosing dead branches for these reasons.

As trees mature, their branches begin to grow horizontally. Some branches may die due to lightning strikes, fire, wind damage, or attacks by insects or fungi, while the rest of the tree continues living. These long-term patterns of growth, decay and random events are necessary to produce the horizontal and dead branches prized by birds. For a large eucalypt, that process can take up to 200 years.

Mapping the canopy with lasers

Until recently, it’s been hard to map the tree canopy. Traditional methods rely on researchers visually assessing this vital habitat. But we know eye observations don’t do well at capturing parts of trees such as branches.

That’s where lidar comes in. Lidar sends out laser pulses, which bounce back when they hit objects. By recording the time taken for the light to return, we can build very detailed three-dimensional models. It’s a little like echolocation, but using light rather than sound.

This laser-scanning technology has been used in the jungles of Central America to find the ruins of lost Mayan cities. But it can do much more.

In forests, lidar is now increasingly used to estimate how dense the tree cover is, and how variable. This useful data feeds into how we assess a forest’s ability to store carbon, how much timber is present, and the current fire risk. We can even use it to spot animal pathways.

To get the canopy detail we wanted, we used lidar on the ground rather than from the air, and processed the data with algorithms that can recognise and describe about 90% of branches in even the largest trees.

We mapped trees in an area near Canberra. We chose this area because it represents the plight of temperate eucalypt woodlands, which have shrunk by up to 99% since European colonisation.

Read more:
An act of God, or just bad management? Why trees fall and how to prevent it

What should we do?

The very things that make branches good real estate for birds can make them seem dangerous or aesthetically displeasing to us. We tend to cut dead or long, horizontal branches and leave the living or more upright ones. But for birds, this is a disaster as many cannot live without such branches.

Young trees are no substitutes for their older counterparts. Planting saplings or installing nest boxes cannot replicate the ecological value of large, mature trees.

We can live alongside large old trees. To reduce the chance of injury or worse from falling limbs, we could use exclusion zones, add artificial supports for branches, and install devices to catch or redirect falling limbs. We can also look at emergency solutions such as prosthetic hollows on younger trees or even artificial replicas of old trees.

We should preserve these trees wherever we can and aim to keep them intact with their complex crowns and dead branches. We should also make sure there is a pipeline of young and medium trees to make sure there will be old trees in the future.

Read more:
An act of God, or just bad management? Why trees fall and how to prevent it

Stanislav Roudavski has received relevant funding from the Australian Research Council and the ACT Parks and Conservation.

Alex Holland has received relevant funding from the Australian Research Council and the ACT Parks and Conservation Service.

Jason Thompson receives funding from The Australian Research Council and National Health and Medical Research Association.

Philip Gibbons receives funding from the Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate of the ACT Government, the Natural Resources Commission, NSW Government and Riverview Projects Pty Ltd.

– ref. Large old trees are vital for Australian birds. Their long branches and hollows can’t be replaced by saplings – https://theconversation.com/large-old-trees-are-vital-for-australian-birds-their-long-branches-and-hollows-cant-be-replaced-by-saplings-225276

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Lee, Associate Professor of History, UNSW Sydney

On March 14, the National Archives of Australia (NAA) released documents from the Howard Government’s National Security Committee (NSC) of cabinet. They all relate to Australia’s entry into the Iraq War in 2003.

This tranche goes beyond the archive’s release of a selection of the records of full cabinet on January 1 2024.

So what do they tell us about the decision to send Australia to war?

Read more:
Cabinet papers 2003: Howard government sends Australia into the Iraq war

What was the National Security Committee?

Australian cabinets have usually been assisted by standing and ad hoc committees. The NSC was the peak decision-making body for national security and major foreign policy matters during the Howard government (1996 to 2007).

Its meetings were attended by relevant ministers and senior officials. These officials included the heads of the departments of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) and Defence, the Chief of the Defence Force and the head of the Office of National Assessments. Unlike other cabinet committees, decisions of the NSC did not require the endorsement of the cabinet itself.

In the release of cabinet records from 2003, discussion of Iraq was scant. This made clear that a full appreciation of the work of a federal cabinet requires including the documents and records of important cabinet committees.

For the Howard government, that was the NSC. Future releases of cabinet records from Kevin Rudd’s government might need to include the Strategic Priorities Budget Committee (SPBC) or “Gang of Four”.

The release of 2003 cabinet records in January 2024 was followed by a concerted media campaign for the full release of government records on Iraq. The prime minister intervened, ordering a review conducted by former senior public servant, Dennis Richardson. One of the review’s key recommendations concerned the National Archives. This was that its yearly proactive release of cabinet records should include those of the NSC.

What do the 2003 NSC documents tell us?

The NSC records reveal planning for Australian military involvement in Iraq was under way well before the formal cabinet decision to join President George W. Bush’s “coalition of the willing” on March 18 2003. For some historians, this will confirm Australia effectively made the decision to join the war at least as early as 2002.

In a record of a meeting on January 10 2003, the minister for defence, Robert Hill, and the defence force chief noted that some deployment of Australian Defence Force (ADF) units would be necessary within a month to meet indicative planning from US Central Command “on the likely time-frame for possible military action against Iraq”.

At the same meeting, the NSC agreed to approve specific forward deployments of ADF units from a list the committee had previously agreed on August 26 and December 4 2002. These ADF units were admittedly not to engage in any military action against Iraq unless the government expressly authorised it. But the reference to decisions to forward deploy the ADF in 2002 points to the necessity for these records to be made public.

In the meeting on January 10, Howard made clear any Australian decision formally to commit the ADF in Iraq would be referred to the full cabinet. He also noted he had “foreshadowed to the governor-general the general direction of steps under consideration by the government in relation to Iraq”.

These steps, we know, did not include Howard’s originally planned reference of the Iraq matter to the governor-general via the executive council. The decision not to do so was probably because the governor-general, Peter Hollingworth, had asked for legal advice on the war from the attorney-general.

Howard later advised Hollingworth that reference of the Iraq decision to the governor-general was unnecessary, and the ADF could be deployed under section 8 of the Defence Act.

Another of the NSC files includes the minute of March 18 2003, containing full cabinet’s authorisation of military action in Iraq. The full cabinet file had nothing else. The NSC file includes a submission from Hill, “circulated in the cabinet room on 17 and 18 March” seeking cabinet agreement on a national policy for possible military operations in Iraq.

Hill’s submission indicated that before the Australian government had received a formal request for support for Coalition operations, it had authorised the ADF to conduct “prudent contingency planning” for a range of capabilities in Iraq. US targeting strategy, Hill reported, included supporting “regime change” along with incapacitating Iraq’s “delivery of weapons of mass destruction (WMD)”.

This document illustrates the tensions between Australian and US war aims in Iraq. The paramount US objective was regime change. Australian policy was not to foster regime change, “although the Government has recognised this may be a desirable, even inevitable, outcome of military action”.

The file also includes the “memorandum of advice” constituting the legal justification for Australian participation in Iraq. The advice was authored not by the solicitor-general but by first assistant secretaries in DFAT and the Attorney-General’s Department.

When published, the memorandum was sharply criticised by legal scholars and former solicitor-general Gavan Griffith. The later release of departmental documents will permit us to see what other legal opinions on the war were held in the two departments.

Read more:
Iraq war, 20 years on: how the world failed Iraq and created a less peaceful, democratic and prosperous state

Now we need to know more

The proactive digitisation of NSC documents on Iraq is a welcome development for which the National Archives should be congratulated. It should be commended, too, for foreshadowing the release of other NSC records from 2003.

However, fuller understanding of how and why Australia went to war in Iraq requires the release of NSC documents from 2002 and 2001.

David Lee was the National Archives of Australia’s cabinet historian for the releases of records from 2002 and 2003 and is a member of Australian s for War Powers Reform.

– ref. Release of ‘missing papers’ from 2003 shines a light on how Australian troops were sent to fight the Iraq War – https://theconversation.com/release-of-missing-papers-from-2003-shines-a-light-on-how-australian-troops-were-sent-to-fight-the-iraq-war-225650

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ken Nosaka, Professor of Exercise and Sports Science, Edith Cowan University

We’re living longer than in previous generations, with one in eight Australians aged over 85. But the current gap between life expectancy (“lifespan”) and health-adjusted life expectancy (“healthspan”) is about ten years. This means many of us live with significant health problems in our later years.

To increase our healthspan, we need planned, structured and regular physical activity (or exercise). The World Health Organization recommends 150–300 minutes of moderate-intensity exercise – such as brisk walking, cycling and swimming – per week and muscle strengthening twice a week.

Yet few of us meet these recommendations. Only 10% meet the strength-training recommendations. Lack of time is one of the most common reasons.

Walking is cost-effective, doesn’t require any special equipment or training, and can be done with small pockets of time. Our preliminary research, published this week, shows there are ways to incorporate strength-training components into walking to improve your muscle strength and balance.

Read more:
Am I too old to build muscle? What science says about sarcopenia and building strength later in life

Why walking isn’t usually enough

Regular walking does not appear to work as muscle-strengthening exercise.

In contrast, exercises consisting of “eccentric” or muscle-lengthening contractions improve muscle strength, prevent muscle wasting and improve other functions such as balance and flexibility.

Typical eccentric contractions are seen, for example, when we sit on a chair slowly. The front thigh muscles lengthen with force generation.

Our research

Our previous research found body-weight-based eccentric exercise training, such as sitting down on a chair slowly, improved lower limb muscle strength and balance in healthy older adults.

We also showed walking down stairs, with the front thigh muscles undergoing eccentric contractions, increased leg muscle strength and balance in older women more than walking up stairs. When climbing stairs, the front thigh muscles undergo “concentric” contractions, with the muscles shortening.

It can be difficult to find stairs or slopes suitable for eccentric exercises. But if they could be incorporated into daily walking, lower limb muscle strength and balance function could be improved.

This is where the idea of “eccentric walking” comes into play. This means inserting lunges in conventional walking, in addition to downstairs and downhill walking.

In our new research, published in the European Journal of Applied Physiology, we investigated the effects of eccentric walking on lower limb muscle strength and balance in 11 regular walkers aged 54 to 88 years.

The intervention period was 12 weeks. It consisted of four weeks of normal walking followed by eight weeks of eccentric walking.

The number of eccentric steps in the eccentric walking period gradually increased over eight weeks from 100 to 1,000 steps (including lunges, downhill and downstairs steps). Participants took a total of 3,900 eccentric steps over the eight-week eccentric walking period while the total number of steps was the same as the previous four weeks.

Read more:
It’s OK to aim lower with your new year’s exercise resolutions – a few minutes a day can improve your muscle strength

We measured the thickness of the participants’ front thigh muscles, muscle strength in their knee, their balance and endurance, including how many times they could go from a sitting position to standing in 30 seconds without using their arms. We took these measurements before the study started, at four weeks, after the conventional walking period, and at four and eight weeks into the eccentric walking period.

We also tested their cognitive function using a digit symbol-substitution test at the same time points of other tests. And we asked participants to complete a questionnaire relating to their activities of daily living, such as dressing and moving around at home.

Finally, we tested participants’ blood sugar, cholesterol levels and complement component 1q (C1q) concentrations, a potential marker of sarcopenia (muscle wasting with ageing).

What did we find?

We found no significant changes in any of the outcomes in the first four weeks when participants walked conventionally.

From week four to 12, we found significant improvements in muscle strength (19%), chair-stand ability (24%), balance (45%) and a cognitive function test (21%).

Serum C1q concentration decreased by 10% after the eccentric walking intervention, indicating participants’ muscles were effectively stimulated.

The sample size of the study was small, so we need larger and more comprehensive studies to verify our findings and investigate whether eccentric walking is effective for sedentary people, older people, how the different types of eccentric exercise compare and the potential cognitive and mental health benefits.

But, in the meantime, “eccentric walking” appears to be a beneficial exercise that will extend your healthspan. It may look a bit eccentric if we insert lunges while walking on the street, but the more people do it and benefit from it, the less eccentric it will become.

Read more:
Health Check: in terms of exercise, is walking enough?

Ken Nosaka does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Only walking for exercise? Here’s how to get the most out of it – https://theconversation.com/only-walking-for-exercise-heres-how-to-get-the-most-out-of-it-224159

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicole Black, Associate Professor of Health Economics, Monash University

For the past few years, it has been impossible to escape the impact of inflation. Meeting our most basic needs – such as food, housing and health care – now costs significantly more, and wage increases haven’t kept up.

There are signs relief could be on the horizon. Inflation has fallen to its lowest levels since January 2022.

But Australia now also finds itself in the midst of an economic downturn, putting further pressure on households.

Read more:
You don’t have to be an economist to know Australia is in a cost of living crisis. What are the signs and what needs to change?

Rising prices have an obvious negative impact on our financial health. But they can also have a profound effect on our physical and mental wellbeing, which is often overlooked.

Australians may continue to feel the health effects of high inflation for quite some time.

It’s costing more to live well

Between March 2021 and March 2023, the price of goods and services rose substantially, marking a period of high inflation.

Worryingly, the prices of basic needs that are important for staying healthy – nutritious food, health care, housing and utilities – rose between 11% and 36%.

Who is affected the most?

Higher prices on essentials are virtually impossible to dodge, but they impact certain groups of people more than others.

Wealthier households have managed their higher expenses by cutting back on discretionary spending and dipping into savings.

However, lower income households spend a much larger portion of their income on housing and other essentials.

Without a savings buffer, these households experience severe financial strain and poor health outcomes.

Financial stress affects our health

Our research shows that high inflation has a range of effects on people’s health.

These effects fall into three main groups: material hardship, psychosocial, and behavioural.

1. Material hardship

People facing material hardship can’t meet their basic needs because they can’t afford to pay for them.

Material hardship can present itself in a variety of ways:

• food insecurity – not getting adequate nutrition
• energy poverty – struggling to pay for electricity and gas
• deferred health care – putting off medical treatment
• housing insecurity – struggling to find a stable place to live.

Between August 2022 and February 2023, when inflation hit its highest levels in 33 years, over half (53%) of surveyed Australians reported struggling to afford their basic needs.

Finding ourselves in this situation can have far-reaching implications for our health.

For example, food insecurity is linked to an increased risk of poor nutrition, obesity and chronic illness, as households facing cost-of-living pressures shift towards cheaper, lower-quality food options.

Energy poverty is linked to physical and mental health problems as people struggle to keep warm in wintertime, and cool in the summer.

Delaying health care increases the risk of facing severe health problems, staying in hospital for longer, and being admitted to the emergency department. This isn’t just worse for individuals, it’s also far more costly for our health care system.

2. Psychosocial effects

Psychosocial effects are the ways in which cost-of-living pressures impact our mind and social relationships.

Difficulties in meeting our basic needs are strongly associated with increased levels of psychological distress, including symptoms of anxiety and depression.

This impact can worsen over time if individuals experience sustained financial stress.

By undermining our ability to work well, the psychosocial effects of prolonged financial stress can initiate a “vicious cycle”, leading to reduced productivity and lower earnings.

Financial stress can also have a detrimental impact on spousal relationships, which can affect the mental health of other household members such as children.

3. Behavioural effects

Cost-of-living pressures can also cause a number of changes in the way we behave.

For many, these pressures have become a reason to work longer hours and gain additional income.

Last year, Australians collectively worked 4.6% longer, an extra 86 million hours.

But working longer hours reduces people’s overall health, especially among parents of young children facing greater time constraints.

It also leaves less time for activities that help to keep people healthy, such as getting regular exercise and cooking healthy meals.

How can policymakers respond?

In theory, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s primary tool for combating inflation – raising interest rates – should help. By reducing aggregate spending in the economy, it is designed to put downward pressure on prices.

But by bluntly increasing the cost of borrowing, it also puts significant short-term financial pressure on both lower-income mortgage holders and renters.

Better acknowledgement of this fact, and of inflation’s broader impact on people’s physical and mental health, would be a great start.

When formulating policy responses to high inflation, governments could factor health and wellbeing impacts into their assessment of the trade-offs between alternative policy responses.

This could help minimise any policy’s long-term negative health consequences and its impact on the health care system.

Policymakers could also focus on making sure affordable and timely access to health care, especially mental health support, is made available to those most vulnerable to cost-of-living pressures.

This work was funded by the Victorian Health Promotion Foundation.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any other company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Undernourished, stressed and overworked: cost-of-living pressures are taking a toll on Australians’ health – https://theconversation.com/undernourished-stressed-and-overworked-cost-of-living-pressures-are-taking-a-toll-on-australians-health-223625

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Griffiths, Deputy Program Director, Budgets and Government, Grattan Institute

The federal government is in the process of abolishing a powerful independent body that reviews government decisions on everything from child support to migration status. The Administrative Appeals Tribunal (AAT) is being replaced by a new body, the Administrative Review Tribunal (ART), at least in part because of concerns about political stacking.

Appointments to the AAT represent one of the most egregious examples of political stacking in Australia in recent years. However, there is currently no guarantee the new body won’t succumb to the same fate.

To build public confidence in the ART, the government must ensure a best-practice appointments process, at arm’s length from political interference.

Read more:
Nowhere to hide: the significance of national cabinet not being a cabinet

Political appointments undermined the AAT

Appointments to the AAT were prestigious, powerful and very well paid (full-time members were paid between $207,310 and $530,630 per year). This made the tribunal an attractive target for political appointments – a nice job for a mate, a place to “park talent”, or perhaps a chance to return a favour.

In 2022, Grattan Institute research showed a staggering 20% of the AAT’s 320 tribunal members had a direct political connection to the government that appointed them. It is unlikely such a high proportion of former politicians, political advisers and party officials would emerge from a completely merit-based recruitment process.

Political appointments to the AAT grew in recent years, as the chart below shows. Many of these appointments were made in the lead-up to the 2019 and 2022 federal elections.

Political appointments to the AAT have increased in recent years

Politicisation of appointments to the AAT undermined the independence of this important expert body. Administrative merits review provides a critical check on government decisions to ensure they are right in all circumstances – recognising that routine government decisions can have a significant impact on people’s lives. Independence is vital to ensure public confidence in these decisions.

The new body must be squeaky clean

The government has decided to cut its losses and start again – creating a whole new tribunal.

In announcing this decision in December 2022, Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus said:

The AAT’s public standing has been irreversibly damaged as a result of the actions of the former government over the last nine years.

Given the government’s concerns about politicisation of the AAT, one would expect a best-practice appointments process for the new body. But the government’s bill to establish the ART leaves a lot of wriggle room on appointments.

A best-practice appointments process

A 2022 Grattan Institute report recommended a better appointments process for all public boards, tribunals and statutory appointments (as shown below).

A better process for public appointments

Key recommendations are:

• all public board, tribunal and statutory appointments should be advertised, along with the selection criteria for each position

• an independent panel should do the shortlisting

• the minister should choose from the shortlist, or redefine and republish the selection criteria, but should not directly select any candidate not shortlisted

• a new public appointments commissioner should oversee the process and report to parliament.

The ART bill implements some elements of this process. Notably, it requires all positions to be advertised. But other elements are incomplete or absent.

The bill allows for a minister to establish an assessment panel but does not require an independent panel.

The minister must be “satisfied” a candidate “was assessed as suitable” through a “merit-based” process. “Merit-based” is defined in the bill, but not who makes the assessment.

And the new appointments process lacks the oversight of a public appointments commissioner who could report to parliament and provide further information on the process when questions inevitably rise about an appointment.

Read more:
The fix is in: how to restore public faith in government appointments

What should happen now

The government will need to negotiate to get its bill through the Senate, and a Senate committee is considering the bill.

The Coalition, Greens and cross-benchers in the Senate should be calling for a best-practice appointments process to ensure the ART doesn’t suffer its predecessor’s fate.

And if Labor is serious about cleaning up jobs for mates, it should look much further than the AAT. My research shows political appointments are common across many powerful, prestigious and well-paid public boards.

A best-practice appointments process for all public board, tribunal and statutory appointments would reduce jobs for mates, improve our institutions and ultimately enhance Australia’s political culture.

The Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute’s activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities as disclosed on its website.

– ref. The federal government’s new Administrative Review Tribunal must avoid the pitfalls of ‘jobs for mates’ – https://theconversation.com/the-federal-governments-new-administrative-review-tribunal-must-avoid-the-pitfalls-of-jobs-for-mates-225663

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kelly McWilliam, Associate Professor of Communication and Media, University of Southern Queensland

Ben Feldman leads Stan Original’s new 12-episode series Population: 11 as Andy, a hapless American banker who travels to a tiny, outback town of 12 in search of his estranged father Hugo, played by Darren Gilshenan.

Inevitably, things do not go to plan.

Upon his arrival at Bidgeegud – a town of “Outback UFO” tours with “guaranteed sightings”, a zoo comprised of a single crocodile, and a pub where the priest holds confessional – Andy soon discovers Hugo has gone missing. His subsequent search for clues is helped by fellow outsider Cassie (Perry Mooney).

The pair progressively uncover the innumerable secrets of the town, one suspicious resident at a time.

A fair go (at humour), mate

Population: 11 is a comedic crime-thriller created by Phil Lloyd, perhaps best known for his writing on 2014 miniseries The Moodys and 2016-17 series Here Come the Habibs!

It draws on the same heavy-handed comedy featured in Lloyd’s previous exploits. As an example, the Chinese restaurant in Bidgeegud sells “camel-toe pies”.

But most heavy-handed is the show’s revelling in Aussie stereotypes. Self-centred Andy is frustrated that “everything bites” after kicking a termite’s nest. He criticises the only person trying to help him in a mock Australian accent, and lashes out at the “dingo dollars or whatever you people call your money”.

Equally, the locals tell Andy “Americans always want something” and later on say “bloody yanks think you can buy everyone off”.

Australia through the eyes of international leads

Australian-based streamer Stan is arguably best known for its Australian content and local audience.

But Population: 11 appears to be part of an emerging trend of offering Australian content from an international lead’s perspective: think The Tourist (led by Jamie Dornan), Gold (led by Zac Efron) or Wolf Like Me (led by Josh Gad).

The push for international talent has long been an important strategy to draw wider audiences to local content, but it sits uncomfortably when this content is so heavily based – at least in places – on Australian stereotypes.

That said, after what is perhaps an inauspicious start, Population: 11’s finale offers a genuinely satisfying conclusion. It ties up a scatter-gun of loose ends, allows the charismatic Feldman to relax into a more fully realised version of Andy, and emphasises what wasn’t always obvious: this is a story about belonging.

Throughout its 12 half-hour episodes, one of the show’s strengths is its talented crew. Directors Helena Brooks and Trent O’Donnell work alongside a veteran supporting cast.

This cast includes the always-entertaining Katrina Milosevic as highly sexed local cop Geraldine, Stephen Curry as general store owner Noel, Tony Briggs as Jimmy the priest and Chai Hansen as station hand Gareth.

Lost in … Larrimah?

If the premise of Population: 11 sounds somewhat familiar, it’s because it was reportedly “inspired” by the 2017 disappearance of Patrick “Paddy” Moriarty and his dog Kellie from the remote, 11-person town of Larrimah in the Northern Territory.

While neither Moriarty nor Kellie has been found, the coroner concluded “Paddy was killed in the context of and likely due to the ongoing feud he had with his nearest neighbours”.

Moriarty’s disappearance has been touted as Australia’s own “Tiger King” tale, after being made the subject of Kylie Stevenson and Caroline Graham’s Walkey Award-winning podcast Lost in Larrimah (2018), a subsequent book titled Larrimah (2021) and HBO documentary Last Stop Larrimah (2023).

While there are clear links with Population: 11’s central mystery, quirky interpersonal drama and outback town of misfits, the show is otherwise only loosely related to the Larrimah mystery. Population: 11’s opening scene, for instance, shows Hugo seemingly being abducted by aliens.

Screening the Kimberly

Where Larrimah is more than 400 kilometres south-east of the Northern Territory capital Darwin, Population: 11 was filmed in Derby and the wider Kimberley region of Western Australia. Strikingly beautiful landscapes feature throughout the series.

Stan partnered with Hollywood studio Lionsgate and Jungle Entertainment to film in the region, making it one of the first Stan Original series to be filmed in the state. The other is the upcoming series Invisible Boys.

The combined effect of its cinematography, real-life inspiration and genuinely likeable cast make Population: 11 – even when it stumbles – an engaging view. I hope it encourages Stan to bring more work to the region, and to other Australian regions it has yet to visit. Because local content is always worth encouraging.

Population: 11 premieres on Stan on March 14.

Kelly McWilliam does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Larrimah-inspired series Population: 11 is a charming watch – if a tad heavy on the Aussie cliches – https://theconversation.com/larrimah-inspired-series-population-11-is-a-charming-watch-if-a-tad-heavy-on-the-aussie-cliches-225173

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Petra Butler, Amo Matua–Executive Dean, Faculty of Law, University of Canterbury

The conviction of Joseph Matamata in 2020 on ten counts of human trafficking and 13 counts of slavery was a watershed moment in recognising modern slavery is not just a foreign problem.

Some three years later, an Immigration New Zealand investigation into migrant worker exploitation again highlighted some extremely precarious working conditions.

Rest breaks, minimum wage rates, written agreements and proper leave provisions simply don’t exist for those caught on the wrong side of the employment divide.

And yet New Zealand still has no specific legislation designed to deal with the problem. The Modern Slavery Reporting Bill drafted by the previous Labour government last year has been sitting in limbo since the election.

Having initially signalled support for the bill, the workplace relations and safety minister, Brooke van Velden, said earlier this year that Cabinet was “yet to make decisions” about its progress.

While it’s hard to predict the bill’s eventual fate, overseas it has been mainly centre-left governments that have driven comparable laws. Conservative governments have been less supportive.

Problems with the bill

As it stands, the draft Modern Slavery Reporting Bill would require all kinds of commercial entities to take reasonable action if they become aware of modern slavery or worker exploitation in their domestic operations and supply chains.

Businesses with NZ$20 million–$50 million in annual revenue would also have to disclose the steps they are taking to address modern slavery. Businesses with annual revenues above $50 million would have to do due diligence to prevent, mitigate and remedy modern slavery and worker exploitation.

Read more:
Previous governments blocked it, but anti-slavery law should now be an urgent priority for New Zealand

The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) defines worker exploitation as “[n]on-minor breaches of employment standards in New Zealand”.

But the bill faces more than just political uncertainty. Even if it became law, many New Zealand businesses would fall below the $20 million and $50 million thresholds.

In other words, they would remain unaffected by the reporting and due diligence requirements in the bill. Given worker exploitation happens just as much in smaller businesses, such a law would only address one part of the problem.

NZ absent from international discussion

Those concerns aside, if the bill (or a version of it) was passed, New Zealand would join many other nations (including the UK, France and Germany) with laws to hold corporations liable for human rights abuses. Australia has recently completed a statutory review of its 2018 Modern Slavery Act.

The European Union has also suggested a draft directive on human rights due diligence for corporations. Member states would be obliged to legislate to implement the directive.

Read more:
More forced marriages and worker exploitation – why Australia needs an anti-slavery commissioner

Beyond national and regional regulation, there are the United Nations Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights. But while these enjoy close to universal acceptance by nations and corporations, they rely mainly on voluntary efforts by businesses to exercise human rights due diligence.

Dissatisfied with reliance on soft law, a growing number of countries have been advocating for an international treaty on business and human rights. Under the auspices of the UN Human Rights Council, a working group has been developing a draft proposal for such a treaty.

In a nutshell, countries that ratified it would commit themselves to implementing national legislation to establish human rights due diligence for corporations and their subsidiaries. New Zealand has so far been absent from these discussions.

Read more:
Here’s what businesses and consumers can do to tackle modern slavery in supply chains

Filling the gap

Without bespoke modern slavery law, concerns over worker exploitation in New Zealand can be brought under OECD guidelines via the National Contact Point for Responsible Business Conduct (NCP), overseen by MBIE.

The NCP will examine complaints and may facilitate mediation. It publishes key findings (preserving confidentiality of the parties) and may follow up after a year. But the OECD complaint mechanism offers little to victims of modern slavery compared to the remedies available under real anti-slavery legislation in those jurisdictions that have it.

In the absence of a local law, however, the NCP process would at least shine a light on problems in New Zealand and encourage the adoption of best practice by foreign and local multinational businesses.

Unfortunately, since its establishment in 2002, the NCP has received only six complaints. Of these, only three were resolved, and only one resulted in a facilitated agreement. More to the point, none of the complaints involved an incident of modern slavery.

As the OECD noted in its 2023 peer review of New Zealand, there is a low awareness of the due diligence requirements and available compensation for violations of modern slavery guidelines.

But, in the absence of purpose-built modern slavery legislation, it can only be hoped the OECD guidelines and complaints mechanism will be used more to fill this gap in New Zealand’s commitment to ethical business and human rights.

The author acknowledges Pierre Thielbörger, Professor of German Public Law and Public International Law at Ruhr University Bochum, whose recent lecture at Victoria University of Wellington inspired this article.

Petra Butler is a member of the NCP Liaison Group, MBIE.

– ref. NZ urgently needs modern anti-slavery law – why is the legislation sitting in limbo? – https://theconversation.com/nz-urgently-needs-modern-anti-slavery-law-why-is-the-legislation-sitting-in-limbo-225643

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian McCallum, Discipline Lead – Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast

As the days shorten, many of us, particularly in Australia’s south-east, are looking forward to cooler times, and perhaps the allure of snow on the horizon. In the past week many in this region experienced their warmest days for over a century. What does this bode for times to come?

Research released overnight suggests ski areas in Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand will soon have much less snow due to climate change. German researcher Veronika Mitterwallner and her colleagues show average annual snow-cover days may decline by 78% in the Australian Alps and 51% in the Southern Alps of Aotearoa New Zealand (under a high-emissions scenario) by 2071–2100. Worldwide, they found 13% of ski areas will lose all natural snow cover by the end of the century.

It’s often said Australia gets more snow than Switzerland, though the evidence says otherwise. The fact remains that the Australian Alps cover a large area, more than 12,000km, with a third or more covered in snow at peak times. So these changes will have a broad impact on local economies and threaten fragile alpine ecosystems.

How did the study make these findings?

Mitterwallner’s team used a high-resolution climate data set for the global land surface area to identify the annual number of natural snow-cover days. Then, they projected those data under three emissions scenarios, and looked at historical (1950-2010), present (2011-2040), immediate future (2041-2070) and near future (2071-2100) data to examine changes over time.

Under most modelled emission scenarios, they found the annual number of snow-cover days will greatly decrease worldwide. For Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand, in particular, they found the average number will decrease by 78% and 51% respectively. These were the two regions with the greatest losses of snow.

However, under a low-emissions scenario, the good news is no regions will fall below an average of 100 snow-cover days a year. This is historically the minimum number of days a ski resort needs in seven out of ten winters to remain viable (cover must be at least 30–50cm).

How will we adapt to the loss of snow?

Will the way we use our alpine areas have to change permanently? Many resorts have already pivoted to activities such as mountain biking that don’t rely on snow. Skiing may be off the agenda – tennis anyone?

The prognosis of such research has driven the formation of groups such as Protect Our Winters. The mission of the Australian section is to help Australia’s outdoor community protect the integrity of our unique alpine environment and lifestyle from climate change.

Beyond Australia, New York recently had its highest snowfall in two years. Across the United States in general, though, they just experienced the warmest winter ever.

What is going on? And what might this new research mean, particularly for Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand?

These predictions, for almost all emissions scenarios, do not bode well for the skiers among us. More importantly, as many communities in the Himalaya are finding out, snow is not just a recreational “nice to have”. It’s a life-source for alpine communities, both human and non-human, and all those that depend on rivers sustained by snow melt around the globe.

Perhaps a greater concern in our region is the potential for ecological damage as resorts seek to increase ski slope metreage in areas that remain snow-covered. Expanding resort footprints is not a sustainable approach to a problem that probably won’t be going away.

Is artificial snow an option?

So how might we support the goals of Protect Our Winters? What alternatives do we have? How about artificial snow, would that work?

As part of my PhD studies many years ago, at the University of Cambridge’s Scott Polar Research Institute, I made masses of “polar snow” in a cold room (while effectively destroying the air-conditioning units at the same time). Artificial snow can be created quite readily, assuming enough water is at hand.

Artificial snow will have a different form and its density and microstructure will differ, potentially affecting longevity. (You can read more about snow mechanics here.)

But once on the ground, artificial snow, like natural snow, is subject to the vagaries of our weather. If the sun is shining and the day is hot, snow won’t last long, regardless of whether it’s natural or artificial.

There’s a lot to think on here as we contemplate what our world and our region might look like when skiing and snow-covered ground become no more than a memory in some areas. Yes, our recreational activities might change as we wonder whether it’s worth waxing up the skis this year – or is it time to break out the racquets? The ongoing survival of many communities might be jeopardised as a result.

Adrian McCallum does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Tennis anyone? Bad news for skiers as snow season could shrink by 78% this century – https://theconversation.com/tennis-anyone-bad-news-for-skiers-as-snow-season-could-shrink-by-78-this-century-225581

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julia Cook, Senior Lecturer in Sociology, University of Newcastle

This article is part of The Conversation’s series examining the housing crisis. Read the other articles in the series here.

Young Australians who would have once been locked out of home ownership are increasingly relying on the so-called Bank of Mum and Dad to get a deposit or to guarantee a bank loan.

The Bank of Mum and Dad has become so large as a home loan enabler that the Productivity Commission says if it was an actual bank it would be somewhere between the fifth and ninth biggest mortgage lender.

While not all home loan assistance from parents is in the form of gifts, the Productivity Commission says the number of children receiving them from parents has doubled in the past 20 years.

Although this is helping young Australians get into the housing market (perhaps at the expense of pushing up housing prices), it is far from clear whether such financial assistance works well for the parents providing the support.

Transfers of $5,000 to $500,000

Financial elder abuse is the third most common form of elder abuse in Australia. The perpetrators of elder abuse are most likely to be adult children, with sons more likely to commit financial elder abuse than daughters.

Yet mortgage brokers, financial advisers and even government officials appear to be encouraging older people to provide financial help to adult children wanting to buy homes without considering whether there might be consequences for the parents.

To find out how intergenerational financial assistance works, we conducted interviews with 52 parents and adult children who have recently given or received financial assistance with home ownership.

The amounts transferred ranged from A$5,000 to $500,000. The average was $75,000. Some amounts were much higher.

The common themes in our interviews were a lack of clarity about whether the payments were gifts or loans, the mischaracterisation of loans as gifts, and undocumented agreements entered into without any documentation or legal advice.

‘Gifts’ offered without legal advice

Most lenders want older Australians to provide a “gift letter” stating the money they are providing to their adult child is a gift rather than a loan.

This is because a loan would reduce the amount the adult child could borrow from their lender, which may make it harder for them to get a mortgage.

Parents may feel obligated to provide “gift letters” even when they and their adult children regard the transfer as a loan.

There are no requirements for parents to obtain independent legal advice before signing such a letter and no cooling-off period.

Few of the parents we spoke to sought legal or financial advice.

Travis, aged 58 – who provided $50,000 to his son – told us:

No, didn’t need to. But I guess we didn’t think about it. We didn’t consider doing that, no. But it’s family, so it’s not needed, I don’t think.

Rosa, who became a guarantor to her daughter and also provided $10,000 to her son, said she “didn’t think about it too much”.

I just thought, why not, I guess. It’s no worries to me, and it really helps them along. […] I didn’t think about it too much because it was a simple process, really. And you do anything for your children.

Little protection from the banks

Australia’s Banking Code of Practice does little to encourage banks to support parents who provide financial assistance with home ownership to their children.

While it commits banks to “taking extra care” with customers who are experiencing elder abuse, the only documentation usually required for transfers from parents is a statutory declaration (gift letter) written by the parent to the adult child’s lending institution, which may be a different bank.

The code acknowledges that older people’s banks may only become aware of their circumstances “if you tell us about them”.

Shame, and the desire to avoid getting their adult children into trouble, make it unlikely that older people will report financial abuse to their bank.

Loans become unintended gifts

Many of the parents we talked to found it difficult and uncomfortable to talk about money. As a result, the parents and adult children often had different understandings of whether the assistance was a gift or a loan, and when (if at all) it would be repaid even when it was a loan.

This ambiguity extended to the parents’ financial positions, with most of the adult children in our study having very little understanding of whether their parent(s) could afford to assist them without compromising their own financial wellbeing.

John (aged 59) told us he gave $150,000 to his daughter and her partner to help them purchase a property.

When we asked his daughter Caroline (aged 32) whether the money was a gift or a loan, she responded, “a loan, yeah, definitely a loan.” However, when asked whether she had begun repayments she responded:

Not yet. I’m not quite sure, but I think we will work it out when it comes to it.

When we asked John the same question, he responded:

Yes, that’s a good question. We said loan, but I’m never going to see that money [laughs]. Maybe a little bit of it, but not the full amount. Definitely not. But we’ll see.

John’s decision to present the assistance as a loan, despite the expectation it would not be repaid in full, was echoed by multiple participants.

Although their reasoning varied, in general, donors who framed the assistance as a loan did so to either manage their children’s feelings of entitlement, to help their children develop “good” saving habits, or to try to avoid their children feeling dependent or infantilised.

The reasoning behind differing views of whether money is a gift or a loan is less important than the more general point that financial assistance of this type is often not defined clearly from the outset.

Little legal protection

Legally, in the absence of evidence to the contrary, funds provided by Australian parents to their children are presumed to be gifts.

This unfortunate presumption carries the assumption older adults’ money will be “passed down” to their children, representing this as the default state of affairs in the absence of evidence otherwise.

It means older adults’ money is represented as not entirely their own, and puts the burden of proof on them to prove that what they had understood to be a loan was a loan – a task made more difficult by the existence of a “gift letter” and the potential of financial elder abuse.

Our study does not find that intergenerational financial assistance is inherently exploitative, but it does point to risks – risks made more likely by the lack of protection offered to parents by banks and the legal system, their understandable desire to help their adult children, and the presumption that financial transfers are “gifts”.

Read more:
It’s not just housing: the ‘bank of mum and dad’ is increasingly helping fund the lives of young Australians

Julia Cook receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Peta Cook receives funding from National Health and Medical Research Council. She was previously a member of the Board of Directors for Council on the Ageing (COTA) Tasmania, and is a current member of Elder Abuse Action Australia (EAAA) and the Australian Sociological Association (TASA).

– ref. The ‘Bank of Mum and Dad’ is exposing older Australians to the risk of financial abuse – https://theconversation.com/the-bank-of-mum-and-dad-is-exposing-older-australians-to-the-risk-of-financial-abuse-224361

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nathan Kilah, Senior Lecturer in Chemistry, University of Tasmania

Vinegar and baking soda are staples in the kitchen. Many of us have combined them in childhood scientific experiments: think fizzy volcanoes and geysers.

But people also frequently mix vinegar and baking soda to produce a reportedly effective household cleaner. Unfortunately, the chemistry behind the bubbly reaction doesn’t support the cleaning hype. The fizzy action is essentially a visual “placebo”, formed by the combination of an acid and a base.

So, how does it work, and is it worth using these chemicals for cleaning? To understand all this, it helps to know a little more about chemistry.

Read more:
A new TikTok trend has people drinking toxic borax. An expert explains the risks – and how to read product labels

What’s an acid?

Foods with a sour taste typically contain acids. These include citric acid in lemon juice, malic acid in apples, lactic acid in yoghurt and phosphoric acids in soft drinks. Most vinegars contain around 4–10% acetic acid, the rest is water and small amounts of flavour chemicals.

There are other naturally occurring acids, such as formic acid in ant bites and hydrochloric acid in our stomachs. Industrially, sulfuric acid is used in mineral processing, nitric acid for fertiliser manufacturing and the highly potent hydrofluoric acid is used to etch glass.

All of these acids share similar properties. They can all release hydrogen ions (positively charged atoms) into water. Depending on their potency, acids can also dissolve minerals and metals through various chemical reactions.

This is why vinegar is an excellent cleaner for showers or kettles – it can react with and dissolve mineral deposits like limescale.

Other common acidic cleaning ingredients are oxalic acid, used for revitalising timber decks, hydrochloric acid in concrete and masonry cleaners, and sulfamic acid in potent toilet cleaners.

What’s a base?

In chemistry, bases – the opposite of acids in many ways – can bind, rather than release hydrogen ions. This can help lift and dissolve insoluble grime into water. Bases can also break apart fat molecules.

Baking soda (also known as sodium hydrogen carbonate, sodium bicarbonate, or bicarb) is a relatively weak base. Stronger common bases include sodium carbonate (washing soda), sodium hydroxide (lye) and ammonia.

Sodium hydroxide is a potent drain cleaner – its strong base properties can dissolve fats and hair. This allows blockages to be broken down and easily flushed away.

Mixing a base and an acid

Mixing vinegar and baking soda causes an immediate chemical reaction. This reaction forms water, sodium acetate (a salt) and carbon dioxide – the fizzy part.

The amount of carbon dioxide gas that is produced from baking soda is remarkable – one tablespoon (around 18 grams) can release over five litres of gas! But only if you add enough acid.

Reactions in chemistry often use equal quantities of chemical reagents. A perfect balance of acetic acid and baking soda would give you just water, carbon dioxide and sodium acetate.

But the majority of vinegar and bicarb cleaner recipes use a large excess of one or the other components. An example from TikTok for a DIY oven cleaner calls for one and a half cups of baking soda and one quarter cup of vinegar.

Crunching the numbers behind the chemical reaction shows that after the fizz subsides, over 99% of the added baking soda remains. So the active cleaning agent here is actually the baking soda (and the “elbow grease” of scrubbing).

Ovens can be cleaned much more rigorously with stronger, sodium hydroxide based cleaners (although these are also more caustic). Many modern ovens also have a self-cleaning feature, so read your product manual before reaching for a chemical cleaner of any sort.

What about the sodium acetate?

Devotees of vinegar and baking soda mixtures might be wondering if the product of the fizzy reaction, sodium acetate, is the undercover cleaning agent.

Unfortunately, sodium acetate is an even weaker base than baking soda, so it doesn’t do much to clean the surface you’re trying to scrub.

Sodium acetate is used in crystallisation-based heating packs and as a concrete sealant, but not typically as a cleaner.

Fun fact: sodium acetate can be combined with acetic acid to make a crystalline food additive called sodium diacetate. These crystals give the vinegar flavour to salt and vinegar chips without making them soggy.

Sorry to burst your bubbles

There are a few rare cases where mixing vinegar and baking soda may be useful for cleaning. This is where the bubbling has a mechanical effect, such as in a blocked drain.

But in most cases you’ll want to use either vinegar or baking soda by itself, depending on what you’re trying to clean. It will be less visually exciting, but it should get the job done.

Lastly, remember that mixing cleaning chemicals at home can be risky. Always carefully read the product label and directions before engaging in DIY concoctions. And, to be extra sure, you can find out more safety information by reading the product’s safety data sheet.

Nathan Kilah does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Vinegar and baking soda: a cleaning hack or just a bunch of fizz? – https://theconversation.com/vinegar-and-baking-soda-a-cleaning-hack-or-just-a-bunch-of-fizz-225177

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Sussex, Associate Professor (Adj), Griffith Asia Institute; and Fellow, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University

Time for an early announcement: Vladimir Putin has won the upcoming Russian presidential election on March 15–17. It’s hardly a spoiler. Russian elections have been performative exercises in phoney democracy for many years now, and this latest round of theatre promises to be no different.

Official state analysts peg Putin’s likely support at around 75%. His only rivals are state-permitted and largely endorse both his platform and leadership. They include the Communist Party’s ageing Nikolai Kharitonov, who is polling around 4%, and Leonid Slutsky, the comparatively spry candidate from the misnamed Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (it’s actually an ultra-nationalist party), who is polling about the same.

Perhaps the most “liberal” candidate on the ballot is Vladislav Davankov, the deputy chair of the State Duma – Russia’s lower house of parliament. Davankov has called for peace talks in Ukraine “on our terms, and with no roll-back”, and his main campaign slogan is the rather vague “Yes to changes!”. He is expected to receive perhaps 5% of the vote.

As Russians obediently line up to cast what amounts to little more than a mandatory expression of fealty, the only real questions worth asking are:

• is there any semblance of opposition left?

• and what kind of leader Putin will be in his fifth full term as president?

No real opposition figures left

There is increasing evidence that Putin will become even more repressive. The Kremlin has overseen the elimination or marginalisation of any charismatic individual who might serve as a hub for popular opposition, and hence pose a threat to Putin – either on the ballot, or off it.

The death of Alexei Navalny in a Siberian prison camp certainly sent that message, underscored by the arrests of several people who attended his funeral.

But throughout Putin’s tenure, plenty of other challengers, dissidents or opponents have been executed or attacked. They include:

• Boris Nemtsov, the popular moderate politician assassinated in 2015

• Anna Politkovskaya, the human rights journalist shot dead in her apartment in 2006

• Natalya Estemirova, the anti-war activist kidnapped and killed in 2009

• Sergei Magnitsky, the lawyer who uncovered evidence of massive corruption and died after being beaten and denied medical care in 2009

• Aleksandr Litvinenko, the former intelligence agent poisoned with polonium in 2006

• Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia, who were poisoned with Novichok in the United Kingdom in 2018

• and the convenient plane crash that killed Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin last year.

Other potential challengers have been ostracised or imprisoned. Nemtsov’s protégé, Vladimir Kara-Murza, for example, was arrested in 2022 and subsequently imprisoned for 25 years.

And so far this year, the Kremlin has jailed the elderly human rights campaigner Oleg Orlov for “discrediting the military”; issued an arrest warrant for the exiled Russian author Boris Akunin for being a “foreign agent”; and labelled the exiled Russian chess grand master Garry Kasparov an “extremist and terrorist”.

In just the last day, Navalny’s former chief of staff, Leonid Volkov, has been hospitalised in Lithuania after being sprayed in the face with tear gas and beaten repeatedly with a hammer.

Elections mean very little

The Kremlin has persisted with the charade of free elections throughout Putin’s rule, but with recent changes to this year’s ballot, those who have proven too popular have found themselves disqualified.

The ex-TV journalist Yekatarina Duntsova, for example, was barred from running due to “violations” in the paperwork for her candidacy. She had been widely scorned as a Kremlin stooge, even though she planned to run on an anti-war platform.

So, too, was Boris Nadezhdin, who attracted significant attention for his pledge to end the war in Ukraine peacefully. But he also ran afoul of Russia’s Central Electoral Commission, which alleged he had failed to collect the necessary 100,000 signatures to qualify as a candidate.

In the end, the political pantomime around who gets to contest Russia’s elections really doesn’t matter.

There has been ample evidence of systemic electoral fraud in Russia for years. This includes ballot stuffing, “carouselling” (bussing voters to different booths to vote multiple times) and simple vote-rigging.

As early as 2011, United Russia – Putin’s de facto party of power in the parliament – was winning an unlikely 99% of the vote in Chechnya.

In the 2018 presidential elections, millions of votes were recorded in districts that had surprisingly precise turnout figures of 85%, 90% and 95%. Some 1.5 million votes (about 2% of the total) simply appeared as “extras” after the final day of voting.

Evidently irked by repeated findings from monitors for the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) about the lack of freedom in Russian elections, the Kremlin simply denied them access in 2024.

Putin the autocrat

It is often said that a marker of authoritarian governments is they generally tend to tolerate dissent. Autocratic governments, on the other hand, do not. That’s because they are the sole custodians of political power. Anyone seeking to challenge that is – by definition – an enemy.

Putin is embracing the autocratic type in his next stanza as president. That makes him incredibly dangerous. Now 71 years old, he has deliberately not anointed a successor, but has bound the fortunes of Russia’s leadership cadres to his own via political blood pacts.

Read more:
What can we expect from six more years of Vladimir Putin? An increasingly weak and dysfunctional Russia

He has created a polity comprised of serfs who compete for his attention, among whom he can place no trust. As the embodiment of Russia’s political gravity, his expectations of utter loyalty will increase. Every failure and setback will only serve to deepen a despotic determination to nourish his delusions of grandeur.

As Russia’s electoral circus unfolds in slow motion, we are already witnessing signs of this. In recent days, former president Dmitry Medvedev prominently displayed a future map of Ukraine. The majority of it was swallowed by Russia, with Medvedev noting that “historic parts of Russia need to come home”.

Around 40% of government spending is now going to the war in Ukraine. And alarm bells have sounded in both Europe and the US that Putin’s ultimate aim is to fracture the West, either through war or the threat of it.

The only way to respond to Putin, therefore, is to resist him as vigorously as possible. After his sham election, he will preside over a regime that may exude strength, but is both fragile and brittle. Should this edifice come down, the results will be both terrible and terrifying for Russians.

But it increasingly seems that will be Putin’s legacy: not as Russia’s champion, but its wrecker.

Matthew Sussex has received funding from the Australian Research Council, the Fulbright Foundation, the Carnegie Foundation, the Lowy Institute and various Australian government departments and agencies.

– ref. Russia is about to hold another presidential election. It needn’t bother – https://theconversation.com/russia-is-about-to-hold-another-presidential-election-it-neednt-bother-225645

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chris Wilson, Co-founder and director of Hate & Extremism Insights Aotearoa (HEIA) and director, Master of Conflict and Terrorism Studies, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

As our research has previously revealed, the man who attacked two mosques in Christchurch in 2019, killing 51 people, posted publicly online for five years before his terrorist atrocity.

Here we provide further information about Brenton Tarrant’s posting. This article has two main goals.

First, by placing his online posting against his other online and offline activities, we gain a far more complete picture of the path to his attack.

Second, we want to show how his online community played a role in his radicalisation. This is important, as the same can happen to others immersed in that community.

In combining his online and offline activity here we do not seek to attribute blame to those who might have been expected to detect this behaviour. It is exceptionally difficult to identify terrorists online.

And yet, history is full of difficult problems that have been overcome. We use the benefit of hindsight to provide greater understanding of Tarrant’s pathway than has previously been available.

The aim is to prevent similar attacks by better understanding how such people act and how they might be detected.

Read more:
Christchurch terrorist discussed attacks online a year before carrying them out, new research reveals

Words and deeds

In the timeline below, we focus on Tarrant’s activity in 2018, following his first visit to Dunedin’s Bruce Rifle Club on December 14 2017, until his final overseas trip in October. It is for this period that we have the most comprehensive online posting history.

In 2024, we have both the benefit of hindsight and the accumulation of information relating to the attack. However, this triangulation of online and offline activities illustrates the ways those contemplating terrorist violence might act.

We can now see, for example, that Tarrant bought high-powered firearms on three occasions over a six-week period in March and April 2018. And he posted publicly twice on the online imageboard 4chan about his plans for racially motivated violence, and his veneration of a perpetrator of a similar attack.

Tarrant therefore not only “leaked” his plans for violence, he did so at the very moment he was buying weapons for it.

Read more:
The road to March 15: ‘networked white rage’ and the Christchurch terror attacks

Over 20 days in July and August, Tarrant presented to hospital with gunshot wounds, and began selling weapons online under the username Mannerheim (the name of a Finnish nationalist leader revered for defeating the communists in the country’s civil war).

He also posted publicly about his anger at the presence of mosques in South Island cities (claiming one had replaced a church). He wrote “soon” when another poster suggested setting fire to these places of worship.

A month later he attempted to sell weapons on online marketplace TradeMe, using a prominent white nationalist slogan – “14 Words” – in his username. (Strangely, this clear red flag was mentioned only once in the royal commission report on the attacks.)

TradeMe removed one of these advertisements for violating its terms of use. That caused Tarrant to move to another forum – NZ Hunting and Shooting Forums – to complain.

Read more:
Can ideology-detecting algorithms catch online extremism before it takes hold?

Extremist community

Our study has also revealed how important the 4chan community is to the radicalisation of individuals like Tarrant. In contrast to the fleeting human interaction he had with others as he travelled the world, 4chan was Tarrant’s community.

4chan’s /pol/ (politically incorrect) board became his home. Here he interacted with others over long periods, imagining he was speaking to the same people over months and years, and assuming many of them had become his friends.

We have found that, while creating a sense of belonging and community, /pol/ also works to create extremists in both direct and indirect ways.

Its anonymous nature (users are assigned a unique ID number for each thread, rather than a username) has two effects. One is well known, the other identified in our study.

First, anonymity encourages behaviour that would be absent if the poster’s identity was known. Second, anonymity is frustrating for those who wish to “be someone”, who crave respect and notoriety.

We have documented the way Tarrant (and others) strive to gain status in a discussion, only to have to start again when they move to a new thread and are given a new ID. This lack of ongoing recognition is agonising for some individuals, who go to lengths to obtain respect.

Read more:
Violent extremists are not lone wolves – dispelling this myth could help reduce violence

Anonymity and peer respect

And just like a real-world fascist movement, /pol/ venerates violent action as necessary for the vitality and regeneration of the community.

When a terrorist attack, school shooting or other violent event occurs, users celebrate these events in so-called “happening” threads. These threads are longer, more emotional and excited than any other discussions. Participants often claim the individual at the centre of the event is “/ourguy/” (a reference to the /pol/ board).

The threads are also highly anticipatory: many users believe this event will finally push society into violent chaos and race war.

These dynamics are closely connected. For those who seek recognition and status on the bulletin board, such as Tarrant, the excited attention and adoration given to those who perpetrate high-profile violence is the clearest path to the peer respect that the anonymity of the board otherwise denies them.

As harrowing as this finding is, we contend that gaining respect from their online community is in itself a crucial motivation for some perpetrators of far-right terrorism.

The nature of this extreme but easily accessible corner of the internet means any hope Tarrant was a one-off – and that this won’t happen again – is misguided.

The authors acknowledge the expert contribution of tactical and forensic linguist and independent researcher Julia Kupper. More information about our study will be released at heiaglobal.com. Our research was approved by the University of Auckland Human Participant Ethics Committee. A paper based on this study has been submitted for peer review and publication.

Chris Wilson is the director and co-founder of Hate & Extremism Insights Aotearoa (HEIA).

Ethan Renner, Jack Smylie, and Michal Dziwulski do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Christchurch attacks 5 years on: terrorist’s online history gives clues to preventing future atrocities – https://theconversation.com/christchurch-attacks-5-years-on-terrorists-online-history-gives-clues-to-preventing-future-atrocities-225273

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Davis, Chair of Women’s Health, Monash University

Despite decades of research, navigating menopause seems to have become harder – with conflicting information on the internet, in the media, and from health care providers and researchers.

Adding to the uncertainty, a recent series in the Lancet medical journal challenged some beliefs about the symptoms of menopause and which ones menopausal hormone therapy (also known as hormone replacement therapy) can realistically alleviate.

So what symptoms reliably indicate the start of perimenopause or menopause? And which symptoms can menopause hormone therapy help with? Here’s what the evidence says.

Remind me, what exactly is menopause?

Menopause, simply put, is complete loss of female fertility.

Menopause is traditionally defined as the final menstrual period of a woman (or person female at birth) who previously menstruated. Menopause is diagnosed after 12 months of no further bleeding (unless you’ve had your ovaries removed, which is surgically induced menopause).

Perimenopause starts when menstrual cycles first vary in length by seven or more days, and ends when there has been no bleeding for 12 months.

Read more:
Perimenopause usually begins in your 40s. How do you know if it has started?

Both perimenopause and menopause are hard to identify if a person has had a hysterectomy but their ovaries remain, or if natural menstruation is suppressed by a treatment (such as hormonal contraception) or a health condition (such as an eating disorder).

What are the most common symptoms of menopause?

Our study of the highest quality menopause-care guidelines found the internationally recognised symptoms of the perimenopause and menopause are:

• hot flushes and night sweats (known as vasomotor symptoms)
• disturbed sleep
• musculoskeletal pain
• decreased sexual function or desire
• vaginal dryness and irritation
• mood disturbance (low mood, mood changes or depressive symptoms) but not clinical depression.

However, none of these symptoms are menopause-specific, meaning they could have other causes.

In our study of Australian women, 38% of pre-menopausal women, 67% of perimenopausal women and 74% of post-menopausal women aged under 55 experienced hot flushes and/or night sweats.

But the severity of these symptoms varies greatly. Only 2.8% of pre-menopausal women reported moderate to severely bothersome hot flushes and night sweats symptoms, compared with 17.1% of perimenopausal women and 28.5% of post-menopausal women aged under 55.

So bothersome hot flushes and night sweats appear a reliable indicator of perimenopause and menopause – but they’re not the only symptoms. Nor are hot flushes and night sweats a western society phenomenon, as has been suggested. Women in Asian countries are similarly affected.

Depressive symptoms and anxiety are also often linked to menopause but they’re less menopause-specific than hot flushes and night sweats, as they’re common across the entire adult life span.

The most robust guidelines do not stipulate women must have hot flushes or night sweats to be considered as having perimenopausal or post-menopausal symptoms. They acknowledge that new mood disturbances may be a primary manifestation of menopausal hormonal changes.

The extent to which menopausal hormone changes impact memory, concentration and problem solving (frequently talked about as “brain fog”) is uncertain. Some studies suggest perimenopause may impair verbal memory and resolve as women transition through menopause. But strategic thinking and planning (executive brain function) have not been shown to change.

Who might benefit from hormone therapy?

The Lancet papers suggest menopause hormone therapy alleviates hot flushes and night sweats, but the likelihood of it improving sleep, mood or “brain fog” is limited to those bothered by vasomotor symptoms (hot flushes and night sweats).

In contrast, the highest quality clinical guidelines consistently identify both vasomotor symptoms and mood disturbances associated with menopause as reasons for menopause hormone therapy. In other words, you don’t need to have hot flushes or night sweats to be prescribed menopause hormone therapy.

Often, menopause hormone therapy is prescribed alongside a topical vaginal oestrogen to treat vaginal symptoms (dryness, irritation or urinary frequency).

However, none of these guidelines recommend menopause hormone therapy for cognitive symptoms often talked about as “brain fog”.

Despite musculoskeletal pain being the most common menopausal symptom in some populations, the effectiveness of menopause hormone therapy for this specific symptoms still needs to be studied.

Some guidelines, such as an Australian endorsed guideline, support menopause hormone therapy for the prevention of osteoporosis and fracture, but not for the prevention of any other disease.

What are the risks?

The greatest concerns about menopause hormone therapy have been about breast cancer and an increased risk of a deep vein clot which might cause a lung clot.

Oestrogen-only menopause hormone therapy is consistently considered to cause little or no change in breast cancer risk.

Read more:
Making sense of menopausal hormone therapy means understanding the benefits as well as the risks

Oestrogen taken with a progestogen, which is required for women who have not had a hysterectomy, has been associated with a small increase in the risk of breast cancer, although any risk appears to vary according to the type of therapy used, the dose and duration of use.

Oestrogen taken orally has also been associated with an increased risk of a deep vein clot, although the risk varies according to the formulation used. This risk is avoided by using estrogen patches or gels prescribed at standard doses

What if I don’t want hormone therapy?

If you can’t or don’t want to take menopause hormone therapy, there are also effective non-hormonal prescription therapies available for troublesome hot flushes and night sweats.

In Australia, most of these options are “off-label”, although the new medication fezolinetant has just been approved in Australia for postmenopausal hot flushes and night sweats, and is expected to be available by mid-year. Fezolinetant, taken as a tablet, acts in the brain to stop the chemical neurokinin 3 triggering an inappropriate body heat response (flush and/or sweat).

Unfortunately, most over-the-counter treatments promoted for menopause are either ineffective or unproven. However, cognitive behaviour therapy and hypnosis may provide symptom relief.

Read more:
Lots of women try herbs like black cohosh for menopausal symptoms like hot flushes – but does it work?

The Australasian Menopause Society has useful menopause fact sheets and a find-a-doctor page. The Practitioner Toolkit for Managing Menopause is also freely available.

Susan Davis is an NHMRC Leadership Investigator and Head of the Women’s Health Research Program Monash University. She holds research funding from the NHMRC, the MRFF and the Heart Foundation She has given educational presentations ( her own work) for Theramex, Besins Healthcare, Mayne Pharma and Abbott Laboratories and has served on Advisory Boards for Theramex, Astellas, Besins Healthcare, Mayne Pharma, Abbott Laboratories and Gedeon-Richter.

– ref. What are the most common symptoms of menopause? And which can hormone therapy treat? – https://theconversation.com/what-are-the-most-common-symptoms-of-menopause-and-which-can-hormone-therapy-treat-225174

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Treasurer Jim Chalmers will say lower commodity prices and a softening labour market mean this year’s revenue upgrade will be modest, when he outlines on Thursday the government’s strategy for the May 14 budget.

At the same time, Chalmers will all but confirm the budget will be in the black, declaring, “We are still shooting for a second surplus”.

He also will indicated the government is likely to bank a maller proportion than prteviously of what revenue upgrade there is. In earlier budgets it banked almost all of it. This time, he says, “we’ll bank what we can” of the upgrade.

Chalmers’ first two budgets were each helped by revenue upgrades of more than $100 billion, but there won’t be any such bonanza this year.

Read more:
Grattan on Friday: Treasurer Jim Chalmers prepares a new ‘growth’ script for his third budget

“In fact we are even looking at much less than the $69 billion we booked in the latest mid-year budget update,” Chalmers will tell a Committee for Economic Development of Australia function.

On the commodities front, the iron ore price has been falling. “In the last week alone it has fallen by almost 10% due to concerns about the demand for steel in China,” Chalmers says in his address, part of which was released ahead of delivery. Earlier this week, it was trading at less than $94 a tonne.

“Its current price is around 20% cent lower than it was this far out from last year’s budget.”

Thermal coal has been on the general path Treasury assumed in the December mid-year budget update. But its present price is about a third lower than this time last year.

The strong labour market contributed a good part of the revenue upgrades of the previous budgets.

Chalmers says while the labour market remains resilient, it is softening. “So we won’t get the very substantial revenue upgrades we’ve seen from outperforming expectations here.

“At the end of last year, there were 14.2 million Australians in work – this is around 500,000 more than Treasury was forecasting at the time of the election.

“We welcome this, but we don’t expect to get such upside forecast surprises this time around.”

Chalmers says the three biggest drivers of the government’s strategy for this budget are “global uncertainty, persistent cost of living pressures, and slowing growth”.

“These pressures necessitate an approach to the third budget which is a little bit different, but not a lot different, to the first two,” he says.

“There will still be a premium on what’s responsible, affordable, meaningful and methodical.

“There will still be a primary focus, but not a sole focus, on inflation.”

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Jim Chalmers warns budget revenue upgrades will be modest but flags expected surplus – https://theconversation.com/jim-chalmers-warns-budget-revenue-upgrades-will-be-modest-but-flags-expected-surplus-225665

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lizzie Speechley, Behavioural Ecologist, The University of Western Australia

If you’ve ever had the pleasure of encountering Australia’s iconic magpies, you know these birds are intelligent creatures. With their striking black and white plumage, loud warbling voices and complex social behaviours, magpies possess a level of avian brilliance that fascinates birders and scientists alike.

But what enables these clever birds to thrive? Are their sharp cognitive abilities innate – something coded into their genetic makeup? Or are magpie smarts more a product of their environment and social experiences?

In a new study, we shed light on the “nature versus nurture” debate – at least when it comes to avian intelligence.

Bigger social groups, smarter birds

Our study focused on Western Australian magpies, which unlike their eastern counterparts live in large, cooperative social groups all year round. We put young fledglings – and their mothers – through a test of their learning abilities.

We made wooden “puzzle boards” with holes covered by different-coloured lids. For each bird, we hid a tasty food reward under the lid of one particular colour. We also tested each bird alone, so it couldn’t copy the answer from its friends.

Through trial and error, the magpies had to figure out which colour was associated with the food prize. We knew the birds had mastered the puzzle when they picked the rewarded colour in 10 out of 12 consecutive attempts.

We tested fledglings at 100, 200 and 300 days after leaving the nest. While they improved at solving the puzzle as they developed, the cognitive performance of the young magpies showed little connection to the problem-solving prowess of their mothers.

Instead, the key factor influencing how quickly the fledglings learned to pick the correct colour was the size of their social group. Birds raised in larger groups solved the test significantly faster than those growing up in smaller social groups.

Fledglings living in groups of ten or more birds needed only about a dozen tries to consistently pick the rewarded colour. But a youngster growing up in a group of three took more than 30 attempts to learn the link between colour and food.

How the social environment shapes cognition

Why would living in a larger social group boost cognitive abilities? We think it probably comes down to the mental demands that social animals face on a daily basis, such as recognising and remembering group members, and keeping track of different relationships within a complex group.

Magpies can learn to recognise and remember humans, too. The bird populations we work with live in the wild, but they recognise us by our appearance and a specific whistle we make.

A young magpie living in a group gets plenty of mental exercise recognising and remembering numerous individuals and relationships. Working to make sense of this stream of social information may boost their ability to learn and solve problems.

Our findings go against the idea that intelligence is something innately “set” within an animal at birth, based solely on genetic inheritance. Instead, we show how cognition can be shaped by the environment, especially in the first year after leaving the nest when young magpies’ minds are still developing.

While we focused specifically on Australian magpies, the implications of our research could extend to other highly social and intelligent species.

Lizzie Speechley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The surprising key to magpie intelligence: it’s not genetic – https://theconversation.com/the-surprising-key-to-magpie-intelligence-its-not-genetic-225654

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Last week, the ABC’s Four Corners investigated the alleged toxic culture towards women at Sydney’s elite boys Cranbrook School.

The investigation covered harassment and bullying of female staff and other bad behaviour. After further developments, the headmaster, Nicholas Sampson, had resigned by week’s end.

The scandal has brought back a debate about whether single-sex schools are fit for purpose and the culture they foster.

To discuss this and what leads some men and boys to treat women badly and too often violently, we’re joined by Michael Flood, professor at the School of Justice at Queensland University of Technology. Flood researches masculinity and gender justice, interpersonal violence and engaging men in violent prevention.

On the Cranbrook revelations, Flood says:

It certainly didn’t surprise me because this is hardly the first time that stories of sexual harassment and sexism and the sexual objectification of girls and women have emerged, both from schools in general and from elite boys’ private schools in particular.

While the issue is prevalent throughout society, Flood explains why elite institutions have particular troubles.

Certainly, there’s very good research to show that you get higher levels of sexual violence and domestic violence in contexts where there are norms of entitlement, norms of being born to rule.

You also get high levels of sexist and harassing and violent behaviour in cultures where there’s a code of silence, a code that you don’t dob, […] you don’t tell on your mates, you cover up and protect your mates.

On getting transparency in schools, Flood describes why it’s a hard task.

Some schools operate as closed shops where they don’t want to be held accountable for poor behaviour by students. And when that behaviour does occur, it’s very tempting for the leaders of those institutions to portray this as the function of a few bad apples, you know, kind of isolated incidents.

While one might expect, after all the recent community debate, that young men would have better attitudes to women than their elders, flood explains why that isn’t the case,

We can’t simply assume that young men have better attitudes then older generations of men or other people, because the fact is they don’t. So, for example, the highest rates of sexual violence offending in Australia are among young men 15 to 19.

Young men, in their late teens and early 20s, in fact, often have poorer attitudes to sexual violence and domestic violence than slightly older cohorts of men, then men in their late 20s, men in their 30s and 40s

What can be done to combat these behaviours in our young men?

Parents have a vital role to play. And funnily enough, fathers have a particularly vital role to play. And, you know, the first thing I think that parents in general and fathers in particular can do is role model equity, role model respect.

A second thing that I think parents can do is have those conversations and they […] can be awkward or embarrassing conversations, but have conversations about pornography, have conversations about relationships, have conversations with […] older children and young people, about consent and respect. And so on.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Masculinity expert Michael Flood on boys and men behaving badly – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-masculinity-expert-michael-flood-on-boys-and-men-behaving-badly-225659

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Park Thaichon, Associate Professor of Marketing, University of Southern Queensland

Until now, you might have thought of electric vehicles as inner suburban toys. Teslas and Polestars are expensive, leaving them as playthings for wealthier Australians and out of reach for the mortgage belt.

But that’s no longer the case. As residents in the outer suburbs reel from price rises seemingly everywhere, more and more are turning to electric vehicles (EVs) to slash their fuel bill.

Last year, EV orders for outer suburban residents (43%) overtook inner suburban residents (39%) for the first time. Rural and regional residents accounted for 18% of orders.

Avoiding petrol costs is one reason. But there are other good reasons, from easier parking and charging, to lower maintenance. And as our research into why people buy EVs has shown, there’s an even more fundamental reason – car buyers now know more about EVs and feel more familiar with the technology.

Outer suburbs rely on cars

The further you get from the city centre, the more likely you are to have to drive. Distances are longer and public transport drops off. Research from 2020 shows most outer suburban residents who commute have to travel between 10 and 30 kilometres. Every workday return commute costs these workers about A$36 in car running costs, or $180 a week – and this figure will likely have risen since.

So while the initial upfront cost of an EV may put some people off, others run the numbers on how much they spend on petrol – and how much they would save by going electric.

Petrol prices have surged in recent years due to armed conflict in Europe and the Middle East. This affects outer suburban, rural and regional residents the most, given they cover the most distance.

This is a major reason why more outer suburbanites are going electric. Electricity is much cheaper than petrol, especially if you make it yourself with solar. Outer suburban residents are more likely to have solar on their rooftops than inner suburban residents in Sydney and Melbourne.

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows the majority of electric vehicle owners live 20 to 60km away from their city’s CBD.

The most popular EVs in Australia last year (Tesla Model Y, Model 3 and BYD’s Atto) can drive between 400 and 500km before needing a recharge. The all-important range has grown substantially in recent years, and now mean suburban residents can commute, shop and go out without worrying about finding a place to charge.

In fact, the outer suburbs are better placed than inner suburbs in terms of charging cheaply. In the inner suburbs, space is at a premium and many houses do not have off-street parking. That makes it hard to recharge your car from your home. But outer suburban homes tend to have off street parking or a garage, which means you can charge cheaply at home.

This is to say nothing of the environmental benefits by avoiding what comes out of the tailpipe of an internal combustion car: carbon dioxide, PM2.5 particles dangerous to our health, and many other nasties.

Read more:
Australia’s electric vehicle numbers doubled last year. What’s the impact of charging them on a power grid under strain?

EVs versus the cost of living

At present, many of us are reining in expenses, cutting back on extracurricular activities and putting off holidays to cope with the surging cost of everything – especially mortgages.

It would make financial sense for many of us to switch to EVs to take advantage of much cheaper running and maintenance costs. But the higher up-front cost of EVs has long been a disincentive.

What’s changing now is that cheaper EVs are arriving from the likes of the world’s second-largest EV manufacturer, China’s BYD and other Chinese brands such as MG. Tesla has cut its prices, too.

In Australia, the cheapest EVs now start from A$40,000, though most still cost $60,000–$90,000.

The secondhand market is growing too, as government fleet EVs come up for sale and as early adopters buy new cars and sell their old.

What are governments doing?

Subsidies, tax credits, and local charging infrastructure are making it easier for residents on the outskirts to transition towards greener transport.

Some state governments are trying to accelerate adoption with a range of incentives for EV owners, from subsidies to cheaper registration. The interest was so strong in Victoria and South Australia that these governments have wound back some subsidies. By contrast, Queensland is offering a generous $6,000 rebate for new EV owners.

At a federal level, the proposed new vehicle efficiency standards will encourage carmakers to sell more fuel-efficient vehicles. If these standards come in, they will likely penalise fuel-guzzling cars and make fuel misers cheaper. They will also likely increase the number of EVs and other zero-emissions vehicles in the Australian market.

Read more:
What would a vehicle efficiency standard for new cars cost – or save – Australian drivers?

What’s next?

Outer suburban residents are buying electric vehicles for very good reasons: financial prudence, practicality and a cleaner future.

Petrol is a substantial expense for many who live in car-dependent suburbs. If you can stop buying it and get the same thing you want – transport – with far cheaper running costs, why wouldn’t you?

Read more:
Electric vehicles are suddenly hot − but the industry has traveled a long road to relevance

Park Thaichon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Petrol, pricing and parking: why so many outer suburban residents are opting for EVs – https://theconversation.com/petrol-pricing-and-parking-why-so-many-outer-suburban-residents-are-opting-for-evs-225565

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Naomi Smith, Lecturer in Sociology, University of the Sunshine Coast

Outside of two grainy paparazzi photos, Catherine, Princess of Wales, hasn’t been seen in public since Christmas Day 2023, when she attended a church service at Sandringham.

In January, Kensington Palace announced Kate Middleton (as she’s more popularly known) was to undergo “planned abdominal surgery” and wasn’t expected to return to public duties until after Easter.

Social media have been awash with speculation about Catherine’s health and whereabouts. Limited information has dripped out of Kensington Palace, inadvertently intensifying scrutiny. The information void has prompted onlookers to fill the space with their own theories.

As scrutiny reaches a fever pitch, we ask: why is the Palace’s typical media playbook no longer working?

Not so ‘unprecedented’

This isn’t the first time rumours about the British royal family have attracted public interest.

Anne Boleyn (circa 1501-1536), the second of six wives of Henry VIII, was executed after being found guilty of adultery, incest and treason. While historians differ in their interpretation of Anne’s guilt or innocence, it’s clear the charges were at least partially the result of gossip instigated by rival factions seeking power at the English court.

The long-reigning Queen Victoria (1819-1901) was widely regarded as as a loyal wife and mother. Yet she too became the target of gossip regarding her close friendship with Scottish servant John Brown after her husband, Prince Albert, died in 1861.

Then there were the rumours about Diana, Princess of Wales: that her son Harry was the product of an affair, that she was pregnant with Dodi Fayed’s child at the time of her death in 1997, and that her death wasn’t accidental.

The Palace typically refuses to comment on these kinds of sensational rumours. Sometimes, though, it will reject gossip via trusted media sources, as was the case in late 2018 when it denied there was a feud between Catherine and Meghan Markle, Duchess of Sussex.

The Palace’s strategic communications

The royal family has gradually adjusted to new media and technologies, though not as quickly as the public might like.

On one hand, the Palace continues its age-old tradition of announcing major news on a noticeboard at the gates of Buckingham Palace. On the other, a previous tendency to hide serious illnesses – such as the cancer that claimed King George VI’s life in 1952 – has been tempered by a more forthcoming approach.

Read more:
The royals have historically been tight-lipped about their health – but that never stopped the gossip

When Queen Camilla underwent a hysterectomy in 2007, the media were informed on the day of the surgery. The Palace was similarly open in its acknowledgement of Catherine’s hospitalisation for hyperemesis gravidarum (severe nausea and vomiting) during her first pregnancy in 2012. It announced her second pregnancy in 2014 earlier than planned due to the same condition.

On some level, we’ve become accustomed to such updates.

Internet sleuthing and a manipulated image

In response to limited information about Catherine’s health, memes stepped in to fill the space. Users on X joked about her recovering from a Brazilian butt lift, or growing out her bangs.

There were also more serious claims that she was in a coma, or dead, or getting a divorce.

In the midst of this speculation, TMZ published a grainy photo of Catherine in the passenger seat of a car near Windsor Castle. She wears large, dark glasses in the long-distance shot. It could be anyone, internet sleuths point out.

Significantly, no major UK news outlets published the photo, as per Kensington Palace’s request. This is partly driven by a desire to preserve access to the Palace in the long term. UK news outlets are also constrained by the Editor’s Code of Practice and the UK’s right-to-privacy legislation, which applies to the royal family. Nonetheless, the snap was widely circulated online.

The situation escalated further when Catherine shared a photo of her and her children on Instagram in honour of Mother’s Day. The public quickly realised the image was at best poorly photoshopped or at worst AI-generated. Online sleuths identified strangely shaped and misplaced hands, odd shadows and unseasonal plant life.

The Associated Press, Getty Images, AFP and Reuters subsequently issued “kill notices” on the image, stating concerns it had been digitally manipulated. In response, Kensington Palace released a brief statement from Catherine, who explained that as an amateur photographer she likes to “occasionally experiment with editing”. The photo had previously been attributed to the Prince of Wales.

Old media PR won’t work in a new media world

The situation with Catherine’s absence from public life exposes the limits of old media strategies in a “new media” world.

The Palace is used to being able to control media coverage through the royal rota, a select group of press outlets in the UK given access to royal events. It typically doesn’t comment on the record in response to gossip and speculation. Yet the interest in Catherine’s health has prompted a number of statements to the press.

These old media strategies don’t seem to be working, with news outlets that are part of the royal rota reporting critically on the manipulated image.

In a world increasingly plagued by synthetic and AI-generated images, it seems the Palace releasing a digitally manipulated image has also undermined the public’s trust in it, adding fuel to the fire.

The public has become increasingly sensitised to AI-generated images over the past year, and is generally much more sceptical and switched on. At the same time, the release of the first post-surgery image of Catherine was always going to attract scrutiny online. It seems the Palace was unprepared for this.

Read more:
Yes, Kate Middleton’s photo was doctored. But so are a lot of images we see today

Most social media users also treat royal rumours similarly to other types of viral celebrity gossip and conspiracy theorising, and evidence suggests the royal family’s popularity is declining over time.

Chaotic, fast-paced social media platforms such as X and TikTok are breeding grounds for misinformation – and #KateGate is arguably the first time the Palace has felt the full force of new-age online conspiracy.

Recent events demonstrate the Palace can no longer rely on favoured newspapers avoiding tricky topics. Now, everyone online can act as a reporter – and a sleuth – and the Palace will need to be much more forthcoming if it wants to preserve its image.

Read more:
The power and pleasure – and occasional backlash – of celebrity conspiracy theories

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Where’s Kate? Speculation about the ‘missing’ princess is proof the Palace’s media playbook needs a re-write – https://theconversation.com/wheres-kate-speculation-about-the-missing-princess-is-proof-the-palaces-media-playbook-needs-a-re-write-225562

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexa Delbosc, Associate Professor in Transport, Monash University

Interest in shared e-bikes and e-scooters, or “micromobility” devices, has skyrocketed in Australia. Every capital city and over 25 local councils have trialled shared e-scooter systems through private operators including Lime, Beam and Neuron.

Public perceptions of these programs are extremely mixed. Some people still think of these small electric personal vehicles as a passing fad. Or, worse, they see them as a source of transport system disruption, public space anarchy and traffic injury.

The truth is more nuanced. Shared scooters and bicycles are gradually being integrated into the transport system of our cities. Brisbane has led the way, followed by Melbourne.

Yet some are still wondering whether shared micromobility systems are simply a fun form of transport for young, mostly male and high-income tourists, or do they benefit a broader set of users?

Our new research across cities in three different countries paints a very different picture. Our findings suggest subsidised micromobility programs can provide significant benefits to vulnerable user groups.

Most shared operators provide discounted rides to low-income customers. In partnership with Lime, we were able to find out how “Lime Access” customers use shared e-scooters and e-bikes and how this compares to non-subsidised customers.

Read more:
Five years on, Brisbane’s e-scooters and e-bikes are winning over tourists and residents as they open up the city

These schemes can help ease disadvantage

We surveyed more than 1,000 respondents in Australia, New Zealand and the United States. We found Lime Access customers were five times as likely as non-subsidised riders (35% versus 7%) to use shared scooters and bicycles for daily travel. They were twice as likely to use them for essential trips (such as shopping or commuting) and to connect with public transport (44% versus 23%).

Half of Lime Access customers said one benefit of micromobility was that it allowed them to “get somewhere without a car”. This finding suggests these programs can help support a car-free or car-light lifestyle. This, in turn, makes transport systems more sustainable.

These benefits were highlighted by open-ended survey responses, such as:

As someone on a low income who does not own a car, it feels very liberating to be able to take a scooter to an area that is not serviced by public transport whenever I like. (Melbourne, Australia)

Read more:
Thinking of swerving high fuel prices with an e-scooter or e-bike? 5 crucial questions answered

People with disabilities also benefit

In our study, we did not directly ask about disability. However, a number of Lime Access customers wrote about how the program allows them mobility despite medical conditions or physical disability.

Many of those disabilities are “invisible” – the casual observer is unlikely to notice them. Yet for the riders, the electric motor of the e-scooter or e-bike reduced the fatigue and strain they would experience walking or riding a standard bike.

I have kidney problems so the scooter saves me from fatigue of long walks. (Christchurch, New Zealand)

For some respondents, their physical disability prevented them from driving a car. Shared micromobility filled the gap, helping them get to essential destinations.

I’m ADA, which basically is handicapped, and I cannot walk all over like I used to be able to. Lime provides me independence I wouldn’t have without it! With the low-income program you offer, it literally saves me! I wouldn’t be able to get groceries or run errands or do most anything I do because of Lime. (San Francisco, California)

Read more:
The old road rules no longer apply: how e-scooters challenge outdated assumptions

What can governments do to maximise the benefits?

Our study found shared e-scooters and bikes aren’t just for tourists to go joyriding. With the right frameworks and incentives in place, they can benefit vulnerable groups in society. In this way, they help create more equitable transport systems.

Yet these subsidised programs are relatively unknown and little-advertised. Only 24% of our respondents had ever heard of them.

The challenge remains: how to reach more travellers who could benefit from reduced-fare programs, without undermining the financial viability of operators? Unlike public transport services and even taxi services, there is no government support to encourage shared micromobility operators to expand their programs.

In the United States, city governments have been proactive in embedding equity requirements into service contracts with micromobility providers. For example, Washington DC reduces the fees it charges micromobility operators, with the reduction based on the proportion of travel by low-income customers.

Read more:
E-bike incentives are a costly way to cut carbon emissions, but they also promote health, equity and cleaner air

In Australia, local and state governments should be moving beyond how to regulate these programs to also focus on how to better integrate them into our transport system. With the right incentives in place, we can maximise the benefits of micromobility for people who are most in need of affordable and accessible transport solutions.

Alexa Delbosc conducted this project in collaboration with Lime. Calvin Thigpen, an author on the research paper, is an employee of Lime. Lime provided access to distribute the survey to Lime customers and did not provide any financial support for the study. Dr Thigpen only became involved in the project during late-stage paper writing and qualitative data analysis.

– ref. E for equity? E-scooter and e-bike schemes can help people on low incomes and with disabilities – https://theconversation.com/e-for-equity-e-scooter-and-e-bike-schemes-can-help-people-on-low-incomes-and-with-disabilities-224844

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jedrzej Bialkowski, Professor and Head of Department, Economics and Finance, University of Canterbury

Global stock prices dropped across the board late last year, by between 10% and 15% in a matter of weeks.

Fears of a recession took hold after a series of interest rate increases, stubborn inflation and geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East. Uncertainty gripped the market and eroded investor sentiment, only for markets to bounce back and finish the year on a high.

Stockmarket history is full of similar periods characterised by either extreme levels or dramatic changes in stock prices. This creates patterns that are difficult to reconcile with asset-pricing models. These models are based on the assumption that prices always reflect reasonable expectations about future cash flows determined by rational investors.

But investors are not always rational. Rather, a large body of academic literature shows market-wide sentiment can cause prices to depart from their true values.

In an ongoing collaboration between the University of Canterbury and the New Zealand Shareholder Association (NZSA), we have developed the NZ Retail Investor Sentiment Index as a representative survey of retail investors in New Zealand.

The goal is to understand the behaviour of New Zealand’s investors and how they compare with their overseas colleagues when predicting the patterns of the stockmarket.

Measuring market sentiment

Market sentiment refers to the overall attitude of investors. It is commonly summarised as bullish (expecting increasing prices), bearish (expecting decreasing prices), or neutral (expecting no or only little changes in price). Such sentiment is not always based on fundamentals such as revenue, profitability and growth opportunities.

Several studies show investor sentiment predicts stock returns and can be used as a contrarian signal since subsequent returns tend to be relatively high when sentiment is low and vice versa. Therefore, a contrarian investor would buy stocks when sentiment is low and sell stocks when sentiment is high.

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Mood, music and money: what our Spotify playlists reveal about the emotional nature of financial markets

Every week since January 2020, we asked registered members of the NZSA whether they expected the stockmarket to increase (bullish), decrease (bearish) or stay the same (neutral) over the next six months. The NZSA has about 1,200 members, a quarter of whom receive email invitations to participate in the survey.

Our index is constructed similarly to those in the United States and Europe, which are often cited in the media and widely used in research. All these benchmarks provide insights into the mood of investors and shed light on the short-term outlook for the local equity market.

2024 forecast for the NZ equity market

During the first four weeks of this year, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months remained elevated at 40%. In other words, 40% of the surveyed investors believe the NZ equity market will increase in the first six months of 2024. At the same time, bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fluctuated around 16%.

So, despite the mounting global and local uncertainties, retail investors are optimistic about the equity market. Bullish sentiment is stronger and bearish sentiment weaker than the historical average levels of 28% and 36%, respectively.

On the back of last year’s strong market performance and a better-than-expected economy, investor optimism carries forward.

However, since sentiment is known to be a contrarian indicator, informed investors should be cautious going further into the new year.

Why investor sentiment matters

In general, investor sentiment affects the demand (buying) and supply (selling) of stocks. At the aggregate level, this can affect stock prices and volatility.

Understanding the level and changes in the overall attitude or mood of investors therefore has important implications for investors to make better investment decisions.

At the same time, policymakers should monitor and include investor sentiment in their decision-making to reduce undue market volatility. Research has shown sentiment as a determinant of stock prices is driven by rational factors, such as inflation, overall market return and dividend yield, and less rational factors.

Read more:
It’s the ‘vibe’ of the thing: the critical art of measuring business and consumer confidence

Regulators typically focus on the former, which by extension contributes to maintaining stability in sentiment and associated price volatility induced by fundamentals.

But changes in sentiment unrelated to fundamentals are just as important. They can occur without warning and spread widely through the market. This has been found to play an important role for price run-ups and corresponding corrections that can have negative impacts on the functioning of the financial market and asset price bubbles and monetary policy.

Considering the importance of investor behaviour for the wider economy, the patterns identified by our index give us a road map to better understand the ups and downs of the New Zealand stock exchange.

Prof Jedrzej Bialkowski is a member of the American Finance Association (AFA), European Finance Association (EFA), Financial Management Association (FMA), Western Finance Association (WFA) and Institute of Finance Professionals New Zealand (INFINZ).

Moritz Wagner is a member of the American Finance Association (AFA), European Finance Association (EFA), Financial Management Association (FMA), Institute of Finance Professionals New Zealand (INFINZ) and the Nez Zealand Shareholder Association (NZSA).

– ref. Be wary of the ‘vibes’: positive investor sentiment doesn’t necessarily match the true value of stocks – https://theconversation.com/be-wary-of-the-vibes-positive-investor-sentiment-doesnt-necessarily-match-the-true-value-of-stocks-223861

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milad Haghani, Senior Lecturer of Urban Mobility, Public Safety & Disaster Risk, UNSW Sydney

The Pitch Music and Arts Festival in Moyston, Victoria, was cancelled while festival-goers were already on site this weekend, after an extreme fire danger warning was issued.

Cancellations like these have become all too familiar.

The live music and festival industry is currently struggling with significant challenges, including expensive insurance premiums and the cost of living crisis impacting ticket sales.

In particular are the challenges associated with climate change, as extreme weather events becoming more frequent, severe and unpredictable.

I looked at news reports over 2022 and 2023 and found at least 22 music festivals in Australia cancelled or disrupted due to extreme weather conditions.

This trend of weather-related interruptions appears to be on the rise: over the seven years between 2013 and 2019, only ten music festivals in Australia were affected by extreme weather.

Severe weather impacts on music festivals and concerts have ranged from delays and cancellations, to the evacuation of venues and areas mid-festival or mid-performance. This will be a growing challenge for the industry.

Read more:
Climate change is transforming Australia’s cultural life – so why isn’t it mentioned in the new national cultural policy?

Death, injury and cancellations

This is not limited to Australia, and not all extreme weather-related events result in a cancellation. In my research, I also looked at where and why events were being cancelled in the United States, finding at least 21 cancellations in 2022–23.

I also found similar cases in New Zealand, Canada, the United Kingdom, Spain and the Netherlands.

In November, we saw the tragic death of a fan due to extreme heat at Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour in Brazil.

Read more:
Taylor Swift’s Brazil concert was hammered by extreme heat. How to protect crowds at the next sweltering gig

There were more than 100 hospitalisations following a hailstorm at a Louis Tomlinson concert in Colorado last June.

At a Taylor Swift performance in Sydney, fans were temporarily evacuated and the show was delayed due to lightning strikes.

In Australia, severe weather has recently led to the postponement of major events such as the abrupt ending to Sydney’s Good Things festival due to a storm in December, and cancellation the of Strawberry Fields festival, scheduled for October 2022, due to flooding in southern NSW.

Extreme weather events are closely linked to climate change. This trend is likely going to get worse. Australia has witnessed a marked increase in the intensity, frequency and duration of heatwaves over the past 67 years, with a significant uptick observed in recent decades.

The environmental impact of festivals

There has not yet been a comprehensive carbon footprint audit of the Australian music industry, but we do know how much music can contribute to carbon emissions through research in the UK.

The UK’s live music industry produces 405,000 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions annually.

The primary sources of these emissions are audience travel, accounting for 43%, and the operations of live music venues, contributing another 23%. This means nearly three-quarters of industry’s emissions are linked to live music performances.

The average touring DJ is responsible for 35 tonnes of CO₂ a year – more than 15 times the personal carbon budget recommended for individuals and nearly eight times the average.

In 2019 alone, 1,000 touring DJs took more than 51,000 flights around the world, generating as much CO₂ as over 20,000 households.

Music festivals can make a change

There are signs of a growing consciousness within the live music industry towards mitigating environmental impacts.

The UK’s live music sector has committed to reaching net-zero emissions by 2030.

In Australia Woodford Folk Festival and WOMADelaide have banned single-use plastics and promote recycling to minimise waste.

The live music industry can reduce its environmental impact by adopting more renewable energy, and using sustainable transport options for artists and audiences.

Engaging audiences in sustainability efforts, such as incentivising carbon offset contributions, can also amplify impact.

Other environmental concerns at festivals are less obvious but also important. Attendees often enjoy wearing glitter, not realising it is made of microplastics. Switching to biodegradable glitter is a practical solution.

Festivals also see waste from abandoned low-quality camping gear. These one-time-use tents and accessories contribute to environmental degradation and create waste management challenges. There needs to be more efforts in educating attendees on the importance of sustainable camping practices and encouraging the use of high-quality, reusable camping gear.

Read more:
The environmental cost of abandoning your tent at a music festival

Tree planting has emerged as a popular strategy for music festivals and bands to offset their carbon footprint and contribute positively to the environment.

Incorporating carbon offsets into ticket pricing or offering them as voluntary options presents strategy for festivals and artists to mitigate their environmental impact.

Challenges such as rising supply chain costs and the cost of living are testing the viability of festivals. Amid these challenges, severe weather can introduce additional uncertainties.

It is important the event industry and festival-goers acknowledge their contributions to these escalating challenges, and take proactive steps towards greening music festivals.

Milad Haghani receives funding from the Australian Research Council (Grant No. DE210100440).

– ref. Australian music festivals are increasingly impacted by climate change. But is the industry doing enough to mitigate its impact? – https://theconversation.com/australian-music-festivals-are-increasingly-impacted-by-climate-change-but-is-the-industry-doing-enough-to-mitigate-its-impact-225183

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By William Partlett, Associate professor of public law, The University of Melbourne

There is very little drama in Russia’s upcoming presidential election this weekend. We all know Vladimir Putin will win. The only real question is whether he will receive more than 75% of the vote.

It could be tempting to see these results as a sign of the strength of the Russian system. Recent gains by the Russian army in Ukraine seem to further support this.

But my own research – soon to be published in a forthcoming book – shows the election results and Russia’s military gains in Ukraine hide a much more problematic reality for the country.

Russia’s system of government is not only undemocratic, rights abusing and unpredictable. It is also increasingly dysfunctional, trapped in a cycle of poor quality and weak governance that cannot be solved by one man, no matter how much power he has.

The constitutional dark arts

The weakness stems from the hyper-centralisation of power in Russia around the president.

This centralisation is the product of an increasingly common logic that I call the “constitutional dark arts”. This logic generally holds that democracy and rights protection are best guaranteed in a constitutional system that centralises authority in one elected leader. This line of thinking is present in many populist, authoritarian countries, such as Hungary and Turkey.

The foundation of this kind of system in Russia is the 1993 Constitution. It was drafted by then-President Boris Yeltsin and his supporters (many in the West) as an expedient for dismantling communism and implementing radical economic reforms. As such, it contains a number of rights provisions and democratic guarantees, alongside provisions that centralise vast power in an elected Russian president.

Yeltsin (and his Western supporters) described this system as democratic because it made the president answerable to the people. They also argued that rights provisions would allow courts to limit any abuses by the centralised state.

These reformers hoped Yeltsin could use this concentrated power to build democracy in Russia. Thirty years later, however, we can see how this use of the “constitutional dark arts” backfired spectacularly.

Since 2000, Putin has ruthlessly deployed this centralised authority to eliminate any checks on power. He has also transformed elections, the media and the courts from sources of accountability into mechanisms to project the image of strong presidential power.

The upcoming presidential election is just the most recent example.

Poor quality governance in Russia

Although this centralised system has allowed Putin to dominate politics, it fosters weak and poor governance, particularly outside Moscow. At least two factors are at play.

First, centralised decision-making in Russia is often made using incomplete or false information. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 is an example. It was based on intelligence that the operation would be over quickly and Ukrainians would likely welcome Russian forces.

Second, centralised directives are delegated to under-resourced, incompetent and weak institutions. Russia’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic was disastrous, in large part due to the poorly resourced regional authorities who were overwhelmed by a crisis of this scale.

This dysfunction has been a central message of the political movement led by the opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Before his death last month, Navalny and his team harshly criticised the corruption and weakness of the Russian regime and its inability to fix roads, provide health care and adequately pay teachers or doctors.

This message was potent, making Navalny the first opposition politician to build a broad coalition that spanned Russia’s 11 time zones.

This broad coalition frightened the Kremlin to such an extent that it led to Navalny’s poisoning in August 2020. Although it remains to be seen how his political movement responds to his death, this central criticism of the government remains one of its most potent messages.

Although it’s impossible to get independent polling on domestic issues during the Ukraine war, it does appear Putin and his administration are concerned about this weakness. In his February 29 address to parliament, Putin tacitly acknowledged these problems, promising new national projects to improve infrastructure, support families and enhance the quality of life.

These kind of promises, however, are unlikely to be implemented. Putin has traditionally promised these kinds of changes around presidential elections. But, when it comes to implementing them, Russia’s regional sub-units are often given no resources to do so.

With so much money now going to the war, it is unlikely the latest set of promises will be any different.

Read more:
Alexei Navalny had a vision of a democratic Russia. That terrified Vladimir Putin to the core

An increasingly dysfunctional Russia

With Putin soon to start his fifth presidential term, this centralisation and personalisation of power is only going to increase.

Externally, this centralisation is likely to produce an increasingly unpredictable Russia, led by a man making decisions on the basis of an increasingly paranoid world view and incorrect or manipulated information. As former German Chancellor Angela Merkel once described Putin, he is really “living in another world”.

This is likely to lead to more foreign policy adventurism and aggression. It will likely foster harsher repression of any dissenting voices inside Russia, as well.

We are also likely to see an increasingly dysfunctional Russia, one in which roads, housing, schools, health care and other infrastructure will continue to deteriorate, particularly outside of Moscow.

Read more:
More corrupt, fractured and ostracised: how Vladimir Putin has changed Russia in over two decades on top

This extends to the military, which remains weak despite its recent battlefield gains. For instance, Russia’s overly centralised command structure has decimated the officer class and led to stunning losses of equipment. Although Russia has managed to muddle through by relying on its vast human and industrial resources, these systemic problems are taking a serious toll on its fighting capacity.

Despite escalating repression, these problems pose an opportunity for a democratic challenger, particularly when Putin is inevitably replaced by another leader.

Russia’s dysfunctional government is also an important reminder for Western media, policymakers and commentators. While it should not serve as a reason for complacency, highlighting Russia’s poor governance is an important tool in combating the Kremlin’s carefully curated image of power and control.

William Partlett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What can we expect from six more years of Vladimir Putin? An increasingly weak and dysfunctional Russia – https://theconversation.com/what-can-we-expect-from-six-more-years-of-vladimir-putin-an-increasingly-weak-and-dysfunctional-russia-224259

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Evangeline Mantzioris, Program Director of Nutrition and Food Sciences, Accredited Practising Dietitian, University of South Australia

Made from fermented apples and naturally high in acetic acid, apple cider vinegar has been popular in recent years for its purported health benefits – from antibacterial properties to antioxidant effects and potential for helping manage blood sugars.

Its origins as a health tonic stretch much further back. Hippocrates used it to treat wounds, fever and skin sores.

An experimental study, released today, looks into whether apple cider vinegar could be effective for weight loss, reduce blood glucose levels and reduce blood lipids (cholesterol and triglycerides).

The results suggest it could reduce all three – but it might not be as simple as downing an apple cider vinegar drink a day.

Read more:
Is apple cider vinegar really a wonder food?

What did they do?

A group of scientists in Lebanon did a double-blinded, randomised, clinical trial in a group of overweight and obese young people aged from 12–25 years.

Researchers randomly placed 30 participants in one of four groups. The participants were instructed to consume either 5, 10 or 15ml of apple cider vinegar diluted into 250ml of water each morning before they ate anything for 12 weeks. A control group consumed an inactive drink (a placebo) made (from lactic acid added to water) to look and taste the same.

Typically this sort of study provides high quality evidence as it can show cause and effect – that is the intervention (apple cider vinegar in this case) leads to a certain outcome. The study was also double-blinded, which means neither the participants or the scientists involved with collecting the data knew who was in which group.

So, what did they find?

After a period of three months apple cider vinegar consumption was linked with significant falls in body weight and body mass index (BMI). On average, those who drank apple cider vinegar during that period lost 6–8kg in weight and reduced their BMI by 2.7–3 points, depending on the dose. They also showed significant decreases in the waist and hip circumference.

The authors also report significant decreases in levels of blood glucose, triglycerides, and cholesterol in the apple cider groups. This finding echoes previous studies. The placebo group, who were given water with lactic acid, had much smaller decreases in weight and BMI. There were also no significant decreases in blood glucose and blood lipids.

From animal studies, it is thought the acetic acid in apple cider vinegar may affect the expression of genes involved in burning fats for energy. The new study did not explore whether this mechanism was involved in any weight loss.

Is this good news?

While the study appears promising, there are also reasons for caution.

Firstly, study participants were aged from 12 to 25, so we can’t say whether the results could apply to everyone.

The statistical methods used in the study don’t allow us to confidently say the same amount of weight loss would occur again if the study was done again.

And while the researchers kept records of the participants’ diet and exercise during the study, these were not published in the paper. This makes it difficult to determine if diet or exercise may have had an impact. We don’t know whether participants changed the amount they ate or the types of food they ate, or whether they changed their exercise levels.

The study used a placebo which they tried to make identical in appearance and taste to the active treatment. But people may still be able to determine differences. Researchers may ask participants at the end of a study to guess which group they were in to test the integrity of the placebo. Unfortunately this was not done in this study, so we can’t be certain if the participants knew or not.

Finally, the authors do not report whether anyone dropped out of the study. This could be important and influence results if people who did not lose weight quit due to lack of motivation.

Read more:
Turns out the viral ‘Sleepy Girl Mocktail’ is backed by science. Should you try it?

Any other concerns?

Apple cider vinegar is acidic and there are concerns it may erode tooth enamel. This can be a problem with any acidic beverages, including fizzy drinks, lemon water and orange juice.

To minimise the risk of acid erosion some dentists recommend the following after drinking acidic drinks:

• rinsing out your mouth with tap water afterwards
• chewing sugar-free gum afterwards to stimulate saliva production
• avoiding brushing your teeth immediately after drinking because it might damage the teeth’s softened top layer
• drink with a straw to minimise contact with the teeth.

Read more:
Apple cider vinegar: is drinking this popular home remedy bad for your teeth? A dentist explains

Down the hatch?

This study provides us with some evidence of a link between apple cider vinegar and weight loss. But before health professionals can recommend this as a weight loss strategy we need bigger and better conducted studies across a wider age range.

Such research would need to be done alongside a controlled background diet and exercise across all the participants. This would provide more robust evidence that apple cider vinegar could be a useful aid for weight loss.

Still, if you don’t mind the taste of apple cider vinegar then you could try drinking some for weight loss, alongside a healthy balanced and varied dietary intake. This study does not suggest people can eat whatever they like and drink apple cider vinegar as a way to control weight.

Read more:
Great time to try: pickling

Evangeline Mantzioris is affiliated with Alliance for Research in Nutrition, Exercise and Activity (ARENA) at the University of South Australia. Evangeline Mantzioris has received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, and has been appointed to the National Health and Medical Research Council Dietary Guideline Expert Committee.

– ref. An apple cider vinegar drink a day? New study shows it might help weight loss – https://theconversation.com/an-apple-cider-vinegar-drink-a-day-new-study-shows-it-might-help-weight-loss-225567

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Patrick D. Nunn, Professor of Geography, School of Law and Society, University of the Sunshine Coast

One afternoon last year, we sat in a village hall in Fiji chatting to residents about traditional ways of forecasting tropical cyclones. One man mentioned a black-winged storm bird known as “manumanunicagi” that glides above the land only when a cyclone is forming out to sea. As the conversation continued, residents named at least 11 bird species, the odd behaviour of which signalled imminent changes in the weather.

As we were leaving later that evening, an elder took us aside. He was pleased we had taken their beliefs seriously and said many older Pacific people won’t talk about traditional knowledge for fear of ridicule.

This reflects the dominance of science-based understandings in adapting to climate change and its threats to ways of life. Our new research suggests this attitude should change.

We reviewed evidence on traditional knowledge in the Pacific for coping with climate change, and found much of it was scientifically plausible. This indicates such knowledge should play a significant role in sustaining Pacific Island communities in future.

A proven, robust system

Our research was co-authored with 26 others, most Pacific Islanders with long-standing research interests in traditional knowledge.

People have inhabited the Pacific Islands for 3,000  years or more and have experienced many climate-driven challenges to their livelihoods and survival. They have coped not by luck but by design – through robust systems of traditional knowledge built by diverse groups of people over time.

The main short-term climate-related threats to island livelihoods in the Pacific are tropical cyclones which can damage food crops, pollute fresh water and destroy infrastructure. Prolonged droughts – common during El Niño events in the southwest Pacific – also cause widespread damage.

Traditional knowledge in the Pacific explains the causes and manifestations of natural phenomena, and identifies the best ways to respond. It is commonly communicated orally between generations.

Here, we describe such knowledge relating to animals, plants, water and sky – and show how these beliefs make scientific sense.

It’s important to note, however, that traditional knowledge has its own intrinsic value. Scientific explanations are not required to validate it.

Read more:
Secrets in the canopy: scientists discover 8 striking new bee species in the Pacific

Reading the ocean and sky

Residents of Fiji’s Druadrua Island interpret breaking waves to predict a cyclone as long as one  month before it hits. In Vanuatu’s Torres Islands, 13 phrases exist to describe the state of the tide, including anomalies that herald uncommon events.

These observations make scientific sense. Distant storms can drive ocean swells onto coasts long before the winds and rain arrive, changing the usual patterns of waves.

In Samoa, ten types of wind are recognised in traditional lore. Winds that blow from the east (matā ‘upolu) indicate the imminent arrival of heavy rain, possibly a tropical cyclone. The south wind (tuā’oloa) is most feared. It will cease to blow, it is said, only when its appetite for death is sated.

Many Pacific Island communities believe a cloudless, dark blue sky signals the arrival of a tropical cyclone. Other signs include unusually rapid cloud movements and the appearance of “short rainbows”.

These beliefs are supported by science. Rainbows are sometimes “shortened” or partly obscured by a distant rain shower. And Western science has long recognised changes in clouds and winds can signal the development of cyclones.

In Vanuatu, a halo around a moon signals imminent rainfall. Again, this belief is scientifically sound. According to Western science, high thin cirrus clouds signal nearby storms. The clouds contain ice crystals through which moonlight is filtered, creating a halo effect.

Read more:
‘Teaching our children from books, not the sea’: how climate change is eroding human rights in Vanuatu

The wisdom of animals and plants

As mentioned above, birds are are said to herald weather changes across the Pacific.

In Tonga, when the frigate bird flies across the land – unusual behaviour for an ocean species – it signals a tropical cyclone is developing. This traditional knowledge is captured in the logo of the Tonga Meteorological Service. Birds are similarly interpreted in Fiji and northern Vanuatu.

This belief stacks up scientifically. One study in North America, for example, showed golden-winged warblers dodged tornadoes by detecting shifts in infrasound. Another study, which included data on frigate birds in the Pacific, found seabirds appeared to circumvent cyclones, probably by sensing wind strength and direction.

Traditional knowledge about insect behaviour in the Pacific Islands is also used to predict wet weather.

Bees, wasps and hornets usually build nests in tree branches. When nests are built close to the ground, Pacific Islanders know the forthcoming wet season will be wetter than normal, probably due to more tropical cyclones. This type of nest-building may prompt residents to make appropriate preparations such as storing food.

Studies suggest insect behaviour can predict changes in weather. For example, a study of wasp nesting in French Guiana found their ability to quickly move nests to more sheltered locations may help them survive wet years.

Across the Pacific, common signs of impending wet weather are found in the behaviours of some plants. The central shoot of the plantain, for example, will be conspicuously curled instead of straight.

This can be explained scientifically by a process in which plant leaves close to protect their reproductive organs from extreme weather.

Planning for a warmer future

Since colonisation imposed Western worldviews around the world, traditional knowledge has been sidelined. This is true of the Pacific Islands, where in some places, traditional knowledge is all but forgotten.

But both Western and traditional knowledges have their pros and cons. Science-based knowledge, for example, is generic and often can’t realistically be applied at local scales.

As climate change impacts worsen, optimal planning for island peoples should combine both approaches. This will require open-mindedness and a respect for diverse sources of knowledge.

Patrick D. Nunn receives funding from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) via the Australia Pacific Climate Partnership (APCP), the Australian Research Council, and the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research.

Roselyn Kumar receives funding from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) via the Australia Pacific Climate Partnership (APCP)

– ref. Pacific Islanders have long drawn wisdom from the Earth, the sky and the waves. Research shows the science is behind them – https://theconversation.com/pacific-islanders-have-long-drawn-wisdom-from-the-earth-the-sky-and-the-waves-research-shows-the-science-is-behind-them-225088

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Natalie Krikowa, Senior Lecturer in Communication, University of Technology Sydney

This article contains spoilers and discussions of trauma and homophobia.

On the surface, All of Us Strangers, directed by Andrew Haigh, is a dark and twisty love story. Underneath, there is the often-present storyline seen in queer cinema: that of trauma and tragedy.

All of Us Strangers follows lonely middle-aged gay man Adam (Andrew Scott), struggling to come to terms with his tragic past and sexuality. Adam is a screenwriter, attempting to use his craft to work through his trauma, but his solitary life is interrupted by his new neighbour Harry (Paul Mescal).

Through a dreamworld-like exploration, Adam experiences the companionship and love accepting his homosexuality would bring, all the while visiting his dead parents in an “I see dead people” Sixth Sense fashion.

Ultimately, the story ends with the realisation Harry, like Adam’s parents, was actually dead all along, and the film leaves us wondering if Adam himself is a ghost, too.

LGBTIQA+ audiences are accustomed to seeing themes of loss, grief, homophobia and tragedy play out on screen, and this film is no exception. While it explores these themes through a beautiful, haunting ghost story, gorgeous cinematography, affective music score and captivating performances, it still reinforces the narrative queer people cannot live happy lives.

Read more:
All of Us Strangers: coming to terms with the grief and trauma of being gay in the 1980s

Queer representation

Queer representation in mainstream media has historically been marred by negative stereotypes, tokenistic representation and death. In my recent interactive documentary, Queer Representation Matters, queer media scholars and queer screen storytellers share how queer characters are often relegated to roles characterised by tragedy or trauma, perpetuating harmful tropes like “bury your gays”.

Bury your gays is a storytelling trope that sees LGBTQI+ characters die, often to propel the story forward for a cis, heterosexual character. We can first find these stories in late 19th century literature such as Oscar Wilde’s The Picture of Dorian Gray (1890).

It gained traction in the early 20th century, in Lillian Hellman’s The Children’s Hour (1934) and Vin Packer’s Spring Fire (1956) (although she doesn’t die, just ends up institutionalised), and continues to appear in novels, plays, films and on television.

Films such as The Hours (2002), Philadelphia (2003), Brokeback Mountain (2005), A Single Man (2009) and Black Swan (2010) are all films about a queer character who suffers and dies.

You may remember some of these much-loved, yet killed-off TV characters: Villanelle from Killing Eve (2018–2022), Poussey Washington from Orange is the New Black (2013–2019) and Lexa from The 100 (2014–2020).

Online queer news site, Autostraddle, have compiled a list of the 230+ dead queer female TV characters, which continues to be updated with each death.

Essentially, for queer people, it starts to feel like you can’t have queer representation without someone dying tragically at the end.

A 2023 report from Screen Australia shows only 7.4% of main or recurring characters on Australian scripted TV from 2016–2021 were identifiably LGBTQI+, and although there have been improvements in representing more complex and inclusive queer stories on Australian television, we remain quite conservative in depicting queer sex and diverse genders.

Queer people will have different and complicated responses to queer death on screen. The result of the bury your gays trope is many queer people are left feeling that being queer means you are destined for tragedy. Witnessing another queer death on screen can make us revisit past wounds and experiences.

Read more:
We studied two decades of queer representation on Australian TV, and found some interesting trends

We need diverse stories

Tropes will always exist in storytelling, but by having more diverse queer filmmakers telling more diverse queer stories, audiences will have a more balanced narrative about queer life (and life expectancy).

So, do these themes of trauma, tragedy and queer death mean films like All of Us Strangers fall into the bury your gays trope? Not necessarily, no. Here, Harry’s death is not propelling a straight character’s story forward.

It is also necessary to have sad stories about queer characters. Stories that show the queer experience in different social and historical contexts are important to understanding the struggle for LGBTQI+ liberation.

While All of Us Strangers may reinforce the narrative queer people cannot live happy lives, there are moments of tenderness, vulnerability and hope in the film. The true value of the story lies in its creation by gay filmmaker Haigh.

When a gay man is able to tell the story his way, the story becomes more authentic.

Haigh’s ability to create truthful conversations between Adam and his parents, cross-generational romance, and the desire to heal persisting wounds, demonstrates the value of the authentic lived experience.

It is important to reflect the tragic queer lived experiences. But when these stories are saturating our big and small screens we are not seeing the alternative – the queer resilience, resistance, joy, hope, creativity, potential and triumph.

We need to see stories that challenge the narrative that being queer ultimately leads to pain, trauma and tragedy. We need to see we can also live long and happy lives, so we can believe we can have the happy ever after.

Read more:
All of Us Strangers: heartbreaking film speaks to real experiences of gay men in UK and Ireland

Natalie Krikowa does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. All of Us Strangers buys into tropes of tragic queer lives – but there is hope there, too – https://theconversation.com/all-of-us-strangers-buys-into-tropes-of-tragic-queer-lives-but-there-is-hope-there-too-224853

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adriana Dutkiewicz, ARC Future Fellow, University of Sydney

Our existence is governed by natural cycles, from the daily rhythms of sleeping and eating, to longer patterns such as the turn of the seasons and the quadrennial round of leap years.

After looking at seabed sediment stretching back 65 million years, we have found a previously undetected cycle to add to the list: an ebb and flow in deep sea currents, tied to a 2.4-million-year swell of global warming and cooling driven by a gravitational tug of war between Earth and Mars. Our research is published in Nature Communications.

Milankovitch cycles and ice ages

Most of the natural cycles we know are determined one way or another by Earth’s movement around the Sun.

As the German astronomer Johannes Kepler first realised four centuries ago, the orbits of Earth and the other planets are not quite circular, but rather slightly squashed ellipses. And over time, the gravitational jostling of the planets changes the shape of these orbits in a predictable pattern.

These alterations affect our long-term climate, influencing the coming and going of ice ages. In 1941, Serbian astrophysicist Milutin Milankovitch recognised that changes in the shape of Earth’s orbit, the tilt of its axis, and the wobbling of its poles all affect the amount of sunlight we receive.

Known as “Milankovitch cycles”, these patterns occur with periods of 405,000, 100,000, 41,000 and 23,000 years. Geologists have found traces of them throughout Earth’s deep past, even in 2.5-billion-year old rocks.

Earth and Mars

There are also slower rhythms, called astronomical “grand cycles”, which cause fluctuations over millions of years. One such cycle, related to the slow rotation of the orbits of Earth and Mars, recurs every 2.4 million years.

The cycle is predicted by astronomical models, but is rarely detected in geological records. The easiest way to find it would be in sediment samples that continuously cover a period of many millions of years, but these are rare.

Much like the shorter Milankovitch cycles, this grand cycle affects the amount of sunlight Earth receives and has an impact on climate.

Gaps in the record

When we went hunting for signs of these multimillion-year climate cycles in the rock record, we used a “big data” approach. Scientific ocean drilling data collected since the 1960s have generated a treasure trove of information on deep-sea sediments through time across the global ocean.

In our study, published in Nature Communications, we used sedimentary sequences from more than 200 drill sites to discover a previously unknown connection between the changing orbits of Earth and Mars, past global warming cycles, and the speeding up of deep-ocean currents.

Most studies focus on complete, high-resolution records to detect climate cycles. Instead, we concentrated on the parts of the sedimentary record that are missing — breaks in sedimentation called hiatuses.

Read more:
How plate tectonics, mountains and deep-sea sediments have maintained Earth’s ‘Goldilocks’ climate

A deep-sea hiatus indicates the action of vigorous bottom currents that eroded seafloor sediment. In contrast, continuous sediment accumulation indicates calmer conditions.

Analysing the timing of hiatus periods across the global ocean, we identified hiatus cycles over the past 65 million years. The results show that the vigour of deep-sea currents waxes and wanes in 2.4 million year cycles coinciding with changes in the shape of Earth’s orbit.

Astronomical models suggest the interaction of Earth and Mars drives a 2.4 million year cycle of more sunlight and warmer climate alternating with less sunlight and cooler climate. The warmer periods correlate with more deep-sea hiatuses, related to more vigorous deep-ocean currents.

Warming and deep currents

Our results fit with recent satellite data and ocean models mapping short-term ocean circulation changes. Some of these suggest that ocean mixing has become more intense over the last decades of global warming.

Deep-ocean eddies are predicted to intensify in a warming, more energetic climate system, particularly at high latitudes, as major storms become more frequent. This makes deep ocean mixing more vigorous.

Deep-ocean eddies are like giant wind-driven whirlpools and often reach the deep sea floor. They result in seafloor erosion and large sediment accumulations called contourite drifts, akin to snowdrifts.

Can Mars keep the oceans alive?

Our findings extend these insights over much longer timescales. Our deep-sea data spanning 65 million years suggest that warmer oceans have more vigorous eddy-driven circulation.

This process may play an important role in a warmer future. In a warming world the difference in temperature between the equator and poles diminishes. This leads to a weakening of the world’s ocean conveyor belt.

Read more:
Even temporary global warming above 2℃ will affect life in the oceans for centuries

In such a scenario, oxygen-rich surface waters would no longer mix well with deeper waters, potentially resulting in a stagnant ocean. Our results and analyses of deep ocean mixing suggest that more intense deep-ocean eddies may counteract such ocean stagnation.

How the Earth-Mars astronomical influence will interact with shorter Milankovitch cycles and current human-driven global warming will largely depend on the future trajectory of our greenhouse gas emissions.

Adriana Dutkiewicz receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Dietmar Müller and Slah Boulila do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. New evidence for an unexpected player in Earth’s multimillion-year climate cycles: the planet Mars – https://theconversation.com/new-evidence-for-an-unexpected-player-in-earths-multimillion-year-climate-cycles-the-planet-mars-225454

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – Authors: Michael Legg, Professor of Law, UNSW Sydney, and, Vicki McNamara Senior Research Associate, Centre for the Future of the Legal Profession, UNSW Sydney.

We’ve seen deepfake, explicit images of celebrities, created by artificial intelligence (AI). AI has also played a hand in creating music, driverless race cars and spreading misinformation, among other things.

It’s hardly surprising, then, that AI also has a strong impact on our legal systems.

It’s well known that courts must decide disputes based on the law, which is presented by lawyers to the court as part of a client’s case. It’s therefore highly concerning that fake law, invented by AI, is being used in legal disputes.

Not only does this pose issues of legality and ethics, it also threatens to undermine faith and trust in global legal systems.

Read more:
Lawyers are rapidly embracing AI: here’s how to avoid an ethical disaster

How do fake laws come about?

There is little doubt that generative AI is a powerful tool with transformative potential for society, including many aspects of the legal system. But its use comes with responsibilities and risks.

Lawyers are trained to carefully apply professional knowledge and experience, and are generally not big risk-takers. However, some unwary lawyers (and self-represented litigants) have been caught out by artificial intelligence.

AI models are trained on massive data sets. When prompted by a user, they can create new content (both text and audiovisual).

Although content generated this way can look very convincing, it can also be inaccurate. This is the result of the AI model attempting to “fill in the gaps” when its training data is inadequate or flawed, and is commonly referred to as “hallucination”.

In some contexts, generative AI hallucination is not a problem. Indeed, it can be seen as an example of creativity.

But if AI hallucinated or created inaccurate content that is then used in legal processes, that’s a problem – particularly when combined with time pressures on lawyers and a lack of access to legal services for many.

This potent combination can result in carelessness and shortcuts in legal research and document preparation, potentially creating reputational issues for the legal profession and a lack of public trust in the administration of justice.

It’s happening already

The best known generative AI “fake case” is the 2023 US case Mata v Avianca, in which lawyers submitted a brief containing fake extracts and case citations to a New York court. The brief was researched using ChatGPT.

The lawyers, unaware that ChatGPT can hallucinate, failed to check that the cases actually existed. The consequences were disastrous. Once the error was uncovered, the court dismissed their client’s case, sanctioned the lawyers for acting in bad faith, fined them and their firm, and exposed their actions to public scrutiny.

Read more:
AI is everywhere – including countless applications you’ve likely never heard of

Despite adverse publicity, other fake case examples continue to surface. Michael Cohen, Donald Trump’s former lawyer, gave his own lawyer cases generated by Google Bard, another generative AI chatbot. He believed they were real (they were not) and that his lawyer would fact check them (he did not). His lawyer included the cases in a brief filed with the US Federal Court.

Fake cases have also surfaced in recent matters in Canada and the United Kingdom.

If this trend goes unchecked, how can we ensure that the careless use of generative AI does not undermine the public’s trust in the legal system? Consistent failures by lawyers to exercise due care when using these tools has the potential to mislead and congest the courts, harm clients’ interests, and generally undermine the rule of law.

What’s being done about it?

Around the world, legal regulators and courts have responded in various ways.

Several US state bars and courts have issued guidance, opinions or orders on generative AI use, ranging from responsible adoption to an outright ban.

Law societies in the UK and British Columbia, and the courts of New Zealand, have also developed guidelines.

In Australia, the NSW Bar Association has a generative AI guide for barristers. The Law Society of NSW and the Law Institute of Victoria have released articles on responsible use in line with solicitors’ conduct rules.

Many lawyers and judges, like the public, will have some understanding of generative AI and can recognise both its limits and benefits. But there are others who may not be as aware. Guidance undoubtedly helps.

But a mandatory approach is needed. Lawyers who use generative AI tools cannot treat it as a substitute for exercising their own judgement and diligence, and must check the accuracy and reliability of the information they receive.

Read more:
Do you trust AI to write the news? It already is – and not without issues

In Australia, courts should adopt practice notes or rules that set out expectations when generative AI is used in litigation. Court rules can also guide self-represented litigants, and would communicate to the public that our courts are aware of the problem and are addressing it.

The legal profession could also adopt formal guidance to promote the responsible use of AI by lawyers. At the very least, technology competence should become a requirement of lawyers’ continuing legal education in Australia.

Setting clear requirements for the responsible and ethical use of generative AI by lawyers in Australia will encourage appropriate adoption and shore up public confidence in our lawyers, our courts, and the overall administration of justice in this country.

Vicki McNamara is affiliated with the Law Society of NSW (as a member).

Michael Legg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. AI is creating fake legal cases and making its way into real courtrooms, with disastrous results – https://theconversation.com/ai-is-creating-fake-legal-cases-and-making-its-way-into-real-courtrooms-with-disastrous-results-225080

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Charlie Huang, Co-leader, Sustainable Global Business Operations and Development Research Group, School of Management, RMIT University

Australia’s largest export, iron ore, has long been a powerhouse of economic growth. Over the past two decades, its contribution to our national income has surged from just A$8 billion in 2005 to over A$124 billion today.

But the Australian iron ore industry faces a major challenge as its biggest customers – China’s steel mills – move to drastically reduce their carbon footprint.

The issue lies in the purity of our product. Most of Australia’s current iron ore exports are not classed as high grade. Typically, the lower the iron content of an ore is, the more energy is required to refine it.

Our competitors – countries such as Brazil and Guinea with higher-grade ores in relative abundance – are positioned to become the steel industry’s suppliers of choice.

Australia could adapt its production to meet this change in demand. But if it doesn’t do so quickly, it may find itself left behind in the new green economy.

Iron ore’s biggest customer cleans up its act

China is the largest importer of Australian iron by a hefty margin. Australia shipped 736 million tonnes – more than 80% of iron ore exports – to China in 2022.

Last year, China’s steel mills made up the majority of global steel production. But they were also a major polluter, accounting for about 15% of China’s total greenhouse gas emissions.

They’re now facing a double whammy of decarbonisation pressures.

At home, the Chinese government has mandated the steel industry reduce its emissions as part of China’s wider “dual carbon” goals. These will require emissions to peak before 2030 and for the country to become carbon neutral by 2060.

And internationally, upcoming tariffs on carbon-intensive steel imports are set to make producing “dirty” steel much costlier.

Australian ore doesn’t make the grade

Making steel with low-grade iron ore isn’t at all carbon friendly.

For one, it consumes vastly more energy in the traditional steelmaking process. My analysis shows that using one tonne of low-grade ore can emit over 200 kilograms more carbon dioxide in a blast furnace than high-grade.

A high level of impurities in low-grade ore also significantly reduces the efficiency of the process.

Reducing the use of low-grade ore has become a priority for Chinese steel mills, significantly affecting iron ore’s demand profile.

Much of the iron ore exported by competing nations like Brazil and Guinea is high-grade, containing more than 65% iron. But most of Australia’s current exports fall below that threshold, between 56% and 62%.

New technologies

A number of new and emerging steelmaking technologies offer the promise of significantly lower emissions.

But common to all of them is a need for higher-grade iron ore than Australia produces.

There are four new steelmaking technologies in use or under construction by a number of Chinese steel corporations, including the world’s biggest steelmaker – China Baowu Group. These include:

• hydrogen-enriched carbon recycling and oxygen furnace (HyCROF)

• hydrogen reduction and electric smelting process (HyRESP)

• hydrogen metallurgy

• green hydrogen zero carbon fluidized bed iron making technology.

Here’s how these technologies could help China reduce its carbon emissions:

Increased use of steel scraps

Global demand for steel is forecast to increase to 2.2 billion tonnes by 2050.

But that won’t all translate into greater demand for our iron ore.

Overall demand for iron ore could be reduced by the increasing availability and use of steel scraps or “recycled steel”, such as scrapped vehicles, white goods and machinery.

Using one tonne of recycled steel for steelmaking saves 1.4 tonnes of iron ore and avoids about 1.5 tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions.

New tariffs on carbon

A number of legislative measures are on the horizon for the global steel industry, which produced about 7% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2022.

One such international measure, the European Union’s Cross-Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), has further accelerated a global drive toward sustainable steelmaking.

This legislation acts as a carbon tariff on imports to the EU, initially aimed at carbon-intensive products such as steel. It will be fully in force by 2026.

EU importers of steel products will be required to pay an import carbon tax, at a price set by the EU, based on the differences in carbon emissions between traditional steel mills and the EU’s emission benchmarks.

Being forced to charge higher prices for carbon-intensive steel products will incentivise non-European steel mills to accelerate their transition to green steel.

What lies ahead

The global transition to green steelmaking is bound to shape the future of Australia’s iron ore industry. Reduced demand for Australia’s low-grade iron ore could put pressure on its producers’ revenue, or even force some smaller iron ore miners to shut down.

But it also presents opportunities. Here are two ways Australia could ride the wave:

1. Substantially increase production and export of magnetite.

Australia is abundant in magnetite, an ore type which differs in composition from hematite or “direct shipping ore” (DSO). Magnetite has a low iron content (between 30 and 40%), but can be processed to a higher grade through a process of removing impurities known as “beneficiation”. This process is energy intensive, but could become economically viable if we continue to see rapid uptake of renewable energy.

2. Build direct reduction plants here in Australia.

Unlike the traditional blast furnace process, which uses coal as a source of energy, the direct reduction process uses hydrogen to reduce iron ore into iron without melting it.

There has been much hype around Australia’s potential to produce cheap hydrogen with renewable energy. But if we pull it off, we could stand at the forefront of the green steel revolution as a global production hub of direct reduced iron.

Decisions made by Australia’s major iron ore producers and political leaders will shape the outcome of this global shift. Rather than fear the transition, Australia could take on a leading role.

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Charlie Huang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. China’s green steel push could crush Australia’s dirty iron ore exports – https://theconversation.com/chinas-green-steel-push-could-crush-australias-dirty-iron-ore-exports-219299

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jessica Terruhn, Senior Research Fellow, University of Waikato

The number of people living in emergency housing in Aotearoa New Zealand has grown exponentially over the last eight years – but plans to rely on the private rental sector ignore fundamental realities of renting.

Established in 2016, the emergency housing programme – short-term housing for people with nowhere to stay – was meant to be a stop-gap measure. There are now 3,000 active tenancies as a lack of affordability and shortages in housing place pressure on low-income renters.

The coalition government recently announced a “shake-up” of the sector. People seeking access to emergency housing will need to prove they have made “a reasonable effort” to secure a home in the private rental sector. The government will also be cutting back on the length of emergency housing grants.

Our research on the factors that shape people’s housing outcomes, experiences and journeys shows the private rental sector can often exacerbate housing precarity.

The government’s proposals don’t take into account the realities of households or the way the private rental sector itself is a key contributor to housing inequalities. Private renting cannot be viewed as an easy solution for the emergency and wider housing crisis.

Housing discrimination is widespread

Our survey of 800 residents across seven neighbourhoods in Auckland, Hamilton and Christchurch revealed experiences of housing discrimination are widespread in Aotearoa New Zealand.

A staggering 70% of renters in our survey felt people were treated unfairly when trying to rent or buy a home in Aotearoa New Zealand. Nearly half of all renters reported directly experiencing discrimination when trying to rent a home.

The study also showed discrimination is intersectional. Socio-economic status, family status as well as race/ethnicity combined to create clear disadvantages for people trying to secure a home. Notably, Māori and Pasifika respondents were more likely overall to report experiences of discrimination.

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When asked for examples to illustrate their experiences of discrimination, renters and owners alike provided stories of struggling to secure private rental housing at some point in their lives. These included being judged, dismissed and ignored by landlords or property managers as well as a sense of “not having a chance” in a housing market in which “applying for a home felt harder than applying for a job”.

Being a low-income household, a Work and Income New Zealand client, a family with a larger number of children or a sole parent and being Māori or Pasifika, often contributed to the experience of being excluded from much of the private rental sector.

The instability of renting

This situation is made worse by the instability of rental housing.

Renters are frequent movers. Our survey results show a mere 12% of private rental tenants have lived in only one home over the past ten years. This stands in stark contrast to 47% of owner-occupiers but also 39% of public housing tenants. Conversely, 40% of all renters have lived in four or more homes over the past ten years.

This high mobility is closely entwined with insecure tenancies. Having a tenancy ended by the landlord was one of the most common reasons survey respondents provided for moving house.

As such, renters’ housing journeys are severely constrained by the imbalance between them and private landlords. Not only may renters find themselves on the move when they did not wish to, but they are forced into securing a new rental under pressure and at their own cost.

It takes time and effort to secure a home, especially one that is affordable and suitable for a household’s needs.

Our survey shows 27% of renters took four months or more to find their current home – longer than the most common notice period of 90 days, which the government is planning to reduce to 42 days in some circumstances. Close to a quarter of renters viewed 11 homes or more and 25% applied for more than ten rental properties.

These periods of time and number of applications suggest that even renters who are not on the cusp of dire housing need take months to find a rental home.

Private rental sector is not a solution

Our survey adds to international research that demonstrates the impact of housing precarity.

Recent research in Aotearoa and the United Kingdom has shown private renting adversely affects renters’ health and wellbeing.

These effects were primarily attributed to the stress caused by insecure tenancies. Moreover, a Western Australian initiative to require public housing applicants to prove they had tried to get a private rental was dismantled following a 2004 inquiry.

The inquiry revealed evidence of discrimination against Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander applicants. It concluded “it was humiliating for [Aboriginal people] to face often blatant discrimination from agents or owners”.

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In all likelihood, these issues will also be disproportionately felt by Māori who are more likely to be renters and experience severe housing deprivation.

The emergency housing crisis can only be responded to through immediate secure housing support for those in need and a medium and long-term focus on building safe, secure and stable housing for all New Zealanders.

Responding to the emergency housing crisis with greater reliance on the private rental sector amounts to fighting fire with fire. It seeks stability where none exists.

The government’s proposal that people seeking emergency housing demonstrate “reasonable effort” to find private housing risks exposing people to more housing deprivation, stress and discrimination that will, in all likelihood, lead some to homelessness.

Jessica Terruhn receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment for the WERO research programme. She is affiliated with Renters United.

Francis L Collins receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment and the Canadian Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. He has previously received other funding from Te Apārangi Royal Society of New Zealand.

– ref. ‘Applying for a home felt harder than applying for a job’: NZ private rentals won’t solve need for emergency housing – https://theconversation.com/applying-for-a-home-felt-harder-than-applying-for-a-job-nz-private-rentals-wont-solve-need-for-emergency-housing-225459