Is the US limiting Starlink in Ukraine? The risks could be catastrophic

Source: The Conversation – UK

The drone has become the signature weapon of the Russo-Ukraine war. On any day in Ukraine, tens of thousands of drones are out hunting the battlefield for targets. These could be individual enemy soldiers or vehicles, or they could be larger targets such as depots, headquarters, bridges or power plants.

Yet, this drone war has been possible only because of a less obvious but equally vital technology. Elon Musk’s SpaceX Starlink system is a secure digital satellite communications network that Ukraine has become fully reliant on.

When Russia mounted its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Mykhailo Fedorov – then Ukraine’s vice prime minister and minister of digital transformation – urged Musk publicly to provide connectivity. Two days later, 500 Starlink terminals arrived in Ukraine. In February 2022, Musk granted the Ukrainian government and military the use of Starlink, initially for free. By July 2020, Starlink had provided 15,000 terminals.

The Ukrainians have fully admitted their dependence on Musk: “Without Starlink, we would have been losing the war already,” one platoon commander reportedly told the Wall Street Journal in 2022. Starlink allowed the government and the armed forces to communicate securely, at the heart of its vital system of C4ISR (the military term for command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance).

Without Starlink, the defence of Ukraine would have been very difficult: perhaps impossible.

The cost to Starlink was considerable, though. Musk initally provided 2,000 terminals for free, 300 discounted and waived monthly services for about 5,500 more. Starlink’s total contribution to the Ukraine war effort in 2022 alone was US$80 million (£71 million). Musk provided a vital military capability gratis and eventually on a (discounted) contractual basis.

The strategic and commercial partnership between Starlink and Ukraine has been vital to the war effort for more than four years.

Crisis resolved

But Ukraine’s dependency on Starlink – or Starshield as the system’s military application is called – has not come without conditions. In September 2022, having repulsed the initial Russian attacks, the Ukrainian armed forces were planning their first assault on the port city of Sevastopol in Crimea, then the home of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. The plan was to sail remotely controlled boats, loaded with explosives to cripple the fleet.

It was a bold plan – the first attempt by the Ukrainian to attack territory which the Russians had held since 2014 and which they considered sovereign. And it was a controversial attack – the Russian ambassador to the US, Anatoly Antonov, had personally warned Musk that attacking Crimea would be a red line, which could lead to nuclear war.

Musk was concerned. He believed that this was potentially escalatory. He advised Fedorov: “Once Russia is fully mobilised, they will destroy all infrastructure throughout Ukraine.” He urged him to avoid a third world war: “Seek peace while you have the upper hand.”

Musk refused a Ukranian request to activate Starshield operations in the region, posting on X that: “If I had agreed to their request, then SpaceX would be explicitly complicit in a major act of war and conflict escalation.”

But following this crisis, relations between Musk and Ukraine’s leadership stabilised. Starshield has continued to play an indispensable role in Ukraine. It has been the digital communications spine of the Ukrainian armed forces and the enabler of all its operations in this war.

Indeed, when the Ukrainians informed him that in 2026 the Russians had acquired some Starlink terminals on the black market and were accessing the system to help them prosecute the war inside Ukraine, he identified the serial numbers of those terminals and disabled them.

Speed limit

Unfortunately, in the past week, Ukrainian armed forces have once again been exposed to the jeopardy of their dependence on Starlink. On the night of October 13-14, without any warning, SpaceX imposed a speed limit of about 160kmph on some Starlink services, meaning this is the maximum speed Ukrainian drones and missiles can travel and remain connected. Starshield terminals mounted on drones have been particularly badly affected. Ukraine’s 7th Rapid Reaction Corps was forced to cancel several missions.

Given the importance of drones to the Ukrainian war effort, the Starlink constraint is very serious. The speed limit has compromised Ukrainian drone fleets operating above the kill zone. It has also undermined Ukrainian air defence against intensifying Russian drone attacks on cities and infrastructure, as 160kmph is too slow for intercepts.

Since strategic bombardments against Ukrainian energy infrastructure have become Russia’s principal means of prosecuting this war and will only intensify into the winter, the Starlink embargo is deeply concerning. It may become critical if it continues.

Unlike September 2022, it appears that this is not a random individual decision by the Starlink boss. It seems to reflect troubling shifts in US policy on Ukraine.

On October 9, the US president, Donald Trump announced a deal with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to lift sanctions on Russian diesel and allow it access to global markets. The plan was, he said, to reduce the price of fuel – although how effectively the relatively small amount of Russian diesel will do that is unclear. The high price of diesel is much more to do with the intractable war in Iran.

The following day, Trump called for the removal of Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky: “Time for Ukraine to get a new president”, he told reporters. The day after that, the US president announced that an energy ceasefire was in immediate effect and that Russia and Ukraine would stop targeting each other’s energy infrastructure.

Ukraine has not used Starlink to hit Russia’s oil refineries. Starlink does not work in Russia and the Ukraine deep strikes rely on other communications systems. So Ukraine’s strategic bombardments remain technically unaffected by the Starlink embargo.

Musk has put the responsibility for the slowdown in Starshield squarely on the US government, posting on his X social media platform: “Starshield systems are owned and controlled by the US government. Any limits on speed or usage are decided by the US military and ultimately POTUS.”

In September 2022, Musk instituted a policy which contradicted US policy on Ukraine – he turned off Starlink against the wishes of the Biden administration. Now, so Musk says, in October 2026, it’s US government which is restricting Starlink. But the result is effectively the same: Ukraine is the victim.

This winter always looked as if it will be hard for Ukraine. It just got harder.

Anthony King does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Original source: https://analysis1.mil-osi.com/2026/10/15/is-the-us-limiting-starlink-in-ukraine-the-risks-could-be-catastrophic/