Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hannah Bunting, Senior Lecturer in Quantitative British Politics and Co-director of The Elections Centre, University of Exeter
Voters are casting their ballots in elections to 136 English local authorities, the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Senedd. For most, it’s the first opportunity to cast a ballot since the 2024 general election. This set of elections is complex, taking place in multiple locations with ballots being counted over several days and across three electoral systems.
In England, local elections run on a four-year cycle, which means different sets of seats in various locations are contested in any given year. This is a bumper year, with around 5,000 councillors – predominantly in urban local authorities – being elected in nearly 3,000 wards. There are more than 25,000 candidates contesting them.
There is added complexity in terms of baseline comparisons, which determine what is considered a loss, gain or hold. While most seats will have been last contested in 2022, various changes mean around a fifth of wards don’t have a directly comparable year. Instead, they have been assigned an estimated notional seat winner.
Labour is defending more than half of the seats up for election and control 65 of the local authorities. This includes 21 of the 32 in London and more than two-thirds of the metropolitan boroughs. They are also fielding the most candidates, a title that went to Reform UK last year.
The Conservatives are defending another quarter of the seats but only have control of 18 local authorities with elections this year. This includes five of the six county councils, whose elections were postponed last year.
The remaining fifth of seats are being defended by the Liberal Democrats (13.6%), independents and others (5.3%) and Greens (2.8%). Reform UK did not start contesting most seats until after the 2024 general election, which means they are defending only three seats this year. However, they’re fielding the second largest number of candidates after Labour.
Scotland and Wales
Scotland elects its devolved parliament every five years under what is known as the additional member system (AMS). This combines first-past-the-post constituency winners with a proportional regional top-up. There are 129 MSP seats up for grabs, 73 of which are elected from the constituencies and the remaining 56 allocated proportionally from the regional list.
The SNP is looking to win its fifth successive term in office. In 2021, it won 64 seats in total, and only two of those were from the proportional top-ups. The parties that gained most from the regional lists were the Conservatives (who came second with a total of 31 seats), Labour which won 22 MSPs and the Greens who achieved eight. The Liberal Democrats won all four of their seats via constituencies.
This election is being fought on new boundaries, affecting 42 of the constituencies and all but one of the regions.
Wales has a new voting system for these elections. The Senedd previously used the AMS to elect 60 representatives, but is now moving to a purely proportional closed-list system. Under this, six members are elected for each of the 16 geographies – first-past-the-post is gone and voters get one vote each. As such, it will be more difficult for any single party to win an overall majority.
Beneath all the logistics are thousands of interesting stories. Around 30% of councillors for all principal local authorities in England are being elected, along with all devolved members.
The extent of change that’s anticipated means there will be a swathe of new representatives taking office. That matters for governance. They will almost certainly win on much smaller winning vote shares, making many seats a very close race. In this context, each person’s vote matters more than ever.
But will this motivate electors to the polls? There could be a moderate but noticeable increase in turnout that is somewhat uncharacteristic of these elections.
When will we know the results?
Ballots are being counted over three days, with the closing results not being announced until Saturday afternoon. Around 46 English local authorities are expected to be counting votes overnight – this is about a quarter of all seats.
This means we should have a clear sense of how the elections are going by Friday morning – watch for Labour losing seats to the Greens and Reform, and for London councils shifting to “no overall control”. It will also be interesting to see which places have voted Reform or Liberal Democrat to the detriment of the Conservatives.
Scotland and Wales both count on Friday, along with all but four of the remaining English local authorities. The earliest devolved results could be announced by lunchtime, but we should know for certain who has come out on top before your Friday chippy tea. Birmingham is an all-out election where all seats are being contested. It looks like it will be a real test for Labour, and counting there may not finish until after 6pm on Friday.
What we can be sure of is that the fragmentation of party support at British elections will continue. Labour and the Conservatives could record their worst results in some areas; the Greens and Reform may branch out to places they’ve never won before. But until every vote has been cast, it’s still in the electorate’s hands.
– ref. Election day in the UK: what to look out for – and when we’ll know the results – https://theconversation.com/election-day-in-the-uk-what-to-look-out-for-and-when-well-know-the-results-282179