Source: Radio New Zealand
Analysis: “I have the numbers” was the quote of the day from an embattled leader and Prime Minister, and one that may still come back to haunt him.
Christopher Luxon was clearly schooled up ahead of his media conference in Pōkeno on Friday to bat away any questions about his leadership with the simple response of “I have the full support of my caucus”.
That’s a reasonable retort when a choir of senior ministers have come out fully backing their leader one by one, but boldly stating he has the numbers sounds like a line out of the loosey-goosey Luxon scriptbook, not that of his strategic communications advisor.
Saying he has the full support of his caucus implies he’s not bothered by the rumblings and his team is behind him, but saying he has the numbers immediately suggests some of his caucus don’t support him as leader, but he believes he has enough in his camp to win any challenge or vote.
It’s looking increasingly unlikely that a formal challenge or vote of no confidence would transpire at Tuesday’s caucus meeting, but there’s no doubt the party’s misfortunes in recent polls and what Luxon plans to do to turn that around will be high on the agenda.
Luxon can also expect to be issued a ‘please explain’ by the caucus as to why he publicly denied his senior whip Stuart Smith had tried to contact him during the last sitting block to discuss his leadership.
RNZ has been told by a well-placed Beehive source that Smith did try to speak to Luxon about caucus concerns regarding his flagging support, yet on Friday his office and Luxon both denied it.
That same source said it was very unclear at this point as to how next week would play out.
And if a TVNZ poll expected in the next fortnight drops on Sunday or Monday night and has National hovering on, or just under, 30 percent, then the nervousness in the caucus will only escalate.
Clearly that anxiety exists given senior minister Paul Goldsmith directly acknowledged it on Friday morning. When asked for his advice to nervous National backbenchers, he offered: “hold your nerve, knuckle down”.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, joined by MP Dan Bidois, addresses speculation that his position as leader is under threat. RNZ / Kim Baker Wilson
The problem for Luxon is that he’s keen to be Prime Minister and get on with governing, or as he’d say running the business.
But the campaign has already kicked off in many ways, and regular polling is being scrutinised, no more so than by his own backbench and ministers who might be out of a job if National’s stocks don’t improve.
The fastest way for Luxon to deal with these ongoing needling questions about his leadership is lift the party in the polls, but there’s only one story in town – the fuel and cost of living crisis – and that’s not going the way of National.
That’s partly because the electorate feel grumpy, especially as summer comes to an end and winter looms, but it also relies on having a leader who can communicate what is going on and reassure people – these things aren’t Luxon’s strong suit.
Making matters worse is the person most widely tipped to replace Luxon if the caucus decides to make a move – Chris Bishop – was prolific in the media this past week, looking and sounding very across his brief.
After being turfed out of his favourite jobs by Luxon in a last minute reshuffle just before Easter, it was Bishop who stepped in to Nicola Willis’ regular Morning Report panel on Wednesday.
He also appeared on TVNZ’s Breakfast, and on the 6pm news that night, then he appeared on Newstalk ZB on Friday morning and has the Sunday lead interview slot on Q+A this weekend.
For somebody the Prime Minister is trying to give less profile to, he was very busy being seen.
The other big piece of the puzzle for any potential leadership challenge is what coalition partners New Zealand First and Act would make of it.
History suggests changing leaders doesn’t bode well at this point in government, and while Winston Peters and David Seymour are benefiting from Luxon’s poor polling, they’d have a fair bit to say if another MP stepped up to the challenge having not fully consulted them.
Peters told RNZ on Friday morning he doesn’t “start at shadows” while Seymour said what National does is “up to them, but Act is here to keep the government together”.
Luxon to his credit has been quite the unifier of not only the National Party but this coalition government, and anyone attempting to step into his shoes might find both those jobs are more difficult than they realised.
One other problem that Luxon needs to sort sooner rather than later is the unease being felt by staff in the Beehive.
His last-minute reshuffle before Easter had huge ramifications for a number of offices with staff being “evented” – effectively losing their job and having to reapply for any new ones that arise – just six months out from an election campaign.
The job market in Wellington is precarious enough as it is and some staffers are feeling like they’ve been unnecessarily thrown into job insecurity for the sake of a point-scoring reshuffle.
Unhappy staff are just as big a threat to Luxon’s leadership as a disgruntled caucus is.
If Luxon wants to secure his leadership in the coming weeks it will require him to turn the polling around in a meaningful way (no easy feat for a Prime Minister with woeful favourability ratings), calm the caucus and convince them he’s their best bet to win in November, and remind staffers in his ministerial offices they are valued and respected.
All of that, however, requires Luxon to accept there’s a problem in the first place – a self awareness many staffers and MPs have long declared isn’t in his DNA.
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
