Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
A federal Newspoll, conducted April 19-22 from a sample of 1,514, gave Labor a 56-44 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Labor (steady), 33% Coalition (steady), 11% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (down one) and 11% for all Others (steady).
Despite Labor’s gain on voting intentions, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s net approval dropped five points to +16, with 53% satisfied (down three) and 37% dissatisfied (up two). This is Albanese’s worst net approval in Newspoll since becoming PM.
Liberal leader Peter Dutton’s net approval was also down six points to a new low of -19. Albanese led Dutton by 54-28 as better PM, a narrowing from 58-26 previously. Newspoll figures are from The Poll Bludger.
The Resolve poll below gave Labor a much bigger lead, but Resolve has skewed to Labor since the 2022 federal election, and Morgan and Essential polls last week also implied little change in Labor’s lead.
Two polls below show support for the Indigenous Voice to parliament slumping since December, but Essential and Resolve polls last week had the Voice’s support slightly up since March. The Morgan poll was particularly bad for the Voice at 54-46 “yes” excluding undecided.
À lire aussi :
Voice support increases in Essential and Resolve polls
Resolve poll gives Labor massive lead
A Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted April 12-16 from a sample of 1,609, gave Labor 42% of the primary vote (up three since March), the Coalition 28% (down two), the Greens 12% (down one), One Nation 6% (up one), the UAP 1% (steady), independents 9% (steady) and others 2% (steady).
Resolve does not give a two party estimate until close to elections, but applying 2022 election preferences to these primary votes gives Labor over a 61-39 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since March. Resolve has been the most pro-Labor regular pollster since the last federal election.
Albanese extended his lead over Dutton as preferred PM from 51-22 in March to 55-21. By 56-30, voters thought Albanese was doing a good job; his net approval of +27 was up three points since March. Dutton’s net approval crashed 17 points to a new low of -28, as he had a 54-26 poor job rating.
Labor widened its lead on economic management over the Liberals to 36-30 from 33-32 in March. On keeping the cost of living low, Labor’s lead increased to 31-21 from 29-22.
Support for Voice slumps in Morgan and Freshwater polls
A Morgan SMS poll, conducted April 14-18 from a sample of 1,181, gave “yes” to the Voice 46% (down seven since December), “no” 39% (up eight) and undecided 15% (down two). If undecided is excluded, “yes” leads by 54-46. This is the narrowest lead for “yes” in any Voice poll.
Other polls, like Essential which gave “yes” a 60-40 lead last week, have had high levels of Coalition support; Essential had 41% of Coalition voters supporting “yes”. In Morgan, just 6% of Coalition voters supported The Voice, with 74% opposed.
A Freshwater poll for Sky News, conducted April 9-12 from a sample of 1,002, had “yes” to the Voice at 42% (down eight since December), “no” at 34% (up eight) and 24% undecided (steady). On a two-answer choice, “yes” led by 56-44.
NSW upper house final result: 21-21 tie between left and right
The New South Wales upper house has 42 members, with 21 up for election every four years, so members serve eight-year terms. All 21 are elected by statewide proportional representation with optional preferences. A quota for election is 1/22 of the vote or 4.5%.
At last Wednesday’s distribution of preferences, the Coalition’s seventh candidate defeated Animal Justice by over 10,000 votes or 0.05 quotas to win the 21st and final seat. The margin narrowed only slightly from the 0.07-quota gap on primary votes.
This means Labor won eight of the 21 seats up for election on March 25 (up one), the Coalition seven (down two), the Greens two (steady), One Nation one (up one), Legalise Cannabis one (up one), the Liberal Democrats one (up one) and the Shooters one (steady). Animal Justice and the Christian Democrats lost their two seats.
The seats won are compared with those won in 2015, the last time these 21 seats were up for election. Defections are ignored.
The overall upper house will have 15 Labor out of 42, 15 Coalition, four Greens, three One Nation, two Shooters, and one each for the Liberal Democrats, Animal Justice and Legalise Cannabis.
Left-wing parties (Labor, the Greens, Legalise Cannabis and Animal Justice) won the 21 seats up at this election by 11-10, but the right had an 11-10 win in 2019. So the overall upper house is tied 21-21 between left and right. The seats elected in 2019 will be up for election in 2027.
The president of the NSW upper house does not vote except to break ties. If Labor can persuade a right-winger to take the presidency, the left would have a 21-20 floor majority. Otherwise, Labor will need at least one vote from the right to pass legislation.
LNP takes lead in a Queensland state poll
The next Queensland state election is in October 2024. A YouGov poll for The Courier Mail, conducted March 30 to April 5 from a sample of 1,015, gave the LNP a 51-49 lead, a one-point gain for the LNP since December. Primary votes were 39% LNP (up one), 33% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (steady), 10% One Nation (down one) and 5% for all Others (up one).
Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s lead over LNP leader David Crisafulli as preferred premier slumped to 31-29 from 39-28 in December. The LNP led Labor on best party to manage cost of living, health and youth crime, with Labor only ahead on delivering the Olympics. Poll figures are from The Poll Bludger.
A Queensland Resolve poll for The Brisbane Times, conducted between mid-January and mid-April from a sample of 945, gave Labor 35% of the primary vote (down two since September to December), the LNP 33% (down two), the Greens 12% (up one), One Nation 7% (up one), independents 10% (up three) and others 2% (down two).
Analyst Kevin Bonham estimated this poll would be 53-47 to Labor, unchanged on September to December. Palaszczuk’s lead as preferred premier narrowed from 42-30 to 39-31. Palaszczuk’s net ratings became negative after registering +8 last time.
Fieldwork for the Resolve poll began in January, and Resolve’s federal and state polls have generally shown a pro-Labor skew relative to other polls. So the YouGov poll is likely to be closer to voting intentions now.
Adrian Beaumont ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.
– ref. Labor gains in Newspoll but Voice support slumps in other polls; NSW final results and Queensland polls – https://theconversation.com/labor-gains-in-newspoll-but-voice-support-slumps-in-other-polls-nsw-final-results-and-queensland-polls-204107