Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne

At 4am Thursday AEDT, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will be inaugurated as president and vice president of the United States, replacing Donald Trump and Mike Pence. What follows is a discussion of US political events over the past two weeks.

On January 5, Democrats won the two Georgia Senate runoffs. Raphael Warnock (D) defeated Kelly Loeffler (R) by 2.0%, and Jon Ossoff (D) defeated David Perdue (R) by 1.2%.

After November’s elections, Republicans held a 50-48 Senate lead, so these results enabled Democrats to tie the Senate at 50-50, with Harris to cast the tie-breaking vote. Democrats gained a net three Senate seats from the pre-November Senate.

On January 6, pro-Trump rioters stormed Congress as it met to certify Biden’s Electoral College victory. The rioters were clearly influenced by Trump’s baseless claims of election fraud. Despite the riots and the courts’ resounding rejections of Trump’s claims, two state certifications were contested: Pennsylvania, which Biden won by 1.2% and Arizona (Biden by 0.3%).

Seven Republican senators out of 51 objected to Pennsylvania’s certification, as did 138 Republicans in the House of Representatives, with smaller numbers objecting to Arizona. The House objectors included House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy.

Just 64 House Republicans opposed the objection, so of those who cast a Yes/No vote on objecting to Pennsylvania, 68% supported the objection. Democrats were unanimously opposed.

It is not just Trump or the rioters, but also these Republicans in Congress who objected to the certifications on baseless election fraud claims who deserve to be condemned for anti-democratic behaviour.

I had two articles for The Poll Bludger about Georgia and the anti-democratic nuttiness of Trump and Republicans. The first was a preview, while the second was a live blog on the Georgia results and the events in Congress the next day.

In response to the riots, on January 13 the Democrat-controlled House impeached Trump for the second time by a 232-197 margin. All Democrats and ten Republicans supported impeachment. It requires a two-thirds majority in the Senate to convict. Trump’s Senate trial will not start until after he leaves office.

Since the riots, social media companies like Twitter and Facebook have blocked Trump’s accounts. But for two months after the election result was called by the media, Trump was able to use his Twitter account to rant that the election was stolen from him.

It is not surprising Trump’s supporters believe him: in a recent poll for the US ABC News and the Washington Post, over 70% of Republicans do not believe Biden was legitimately elected.

In the wake of the riots, Trump’s ratings have slumped. In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, 38.5% approve of Trump’s performance and 57.9% disapprove, for a net approval of -19.4%. His net approval has dropped nine points since the riots. Trump’s net approval is his worst since December 2017.

FiveThirtyEight has charts of presidential approval since Harry Truman (president from 1945-53). Two previous presidents (Gerald Ford and John F. Kennedy) did not reach Trump’s four years as president. Of those who had at least four years, Trump’s final net approval is worse than all except Jimmy Carter at this point in their terms.

In a Marist poll, 47% thought Trump would be remembered as one of the worst presidents, while 16% thought he would be remembered as one of the best.

Detailed US election report

After results are finalised, I have published a detailed report on every US presidential election since 2008. My 2008 and 2012 reports are at The Green Papers here and here, and my 2016 report is at The Conversation. My 2016 report had a massive surge in views in October and November last year.

My 2020 election report, published December 11, is at The Poll Bludger. Here are the highlights:

• Biden won the Electoral College by 306 to 232, but he only won the tipping-point state (Wisconsin) by 0.6%. The tipping-point state is the state that puts the winning candidate over the magic 270 Electoral Votes needed to win.

• Biden won the national popular vote by 4.5% or just over 7 million votes. So the tipping-point state was 3.9% more pro-Trump than the popular vote.

• Trump’s vote held up well with the non-University educated whites who had given him his upset 2016 win. Biden owed his Electoral College victory to gains in the suburbs, where there is a higher amount of university education.

• Trump improved greatly from 2016 with Hispanics, leading to large swings in his favour in diverse places like Miami-Dade county, Florida and New York City.

• There was disappointment for Democrats relative to expectations in Congressional races, although the Georgia runoff results have improved this.

– ref. After riots, Donald Trump leaves office with under 40% approval – https://theconversation.com/after-riots-donald-trump-leaves-office-with-under-40-approval-153442

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Britta Denise Hardesty, Principal Research Scientist, Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, CSIRO

Illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing costs economies up to US$50 billion globally each year, and makes up to one-fifth of the global catch. It’s a huge problem not only for the 59.5 million people who depend on fisheries for their livelihoods, but also for the environment.

Many philanthropic and environmental organisations think of illegal fishing as a “transnational crime”, involving organised criminals operating vessels on the high seas, smuggling drugs, weapons and people.

But our research found this depiction is, by and large, not true.

When illegal fishing is falsely represented like this, it can lead to ineffective investments and misguided policies, such as the requirement of over-the-top transparency and the criminalisation of desperate fishers.

The reality at sea looks very different

Most crimes associated with fishing are actually related to increasing fishing revenues or decreasing operating costs — not human, weapons and drug trafficking.

We looked at more than 300 events of illegal fishing reported in the media across the Asia-Pacific region, where over 50% of the world’s seafood comes from. And we found only six events involved additional associated crimes like drug possession.

Serious crimes still do occur on fishing vessels, such as human rights abuses linked to reducing labour costs, or the use of illegal gear to increase catches and revenue. However, these crimes fall within a fishing business model where, ultimately, a lack of profitability drives illegal behaviour.

This lack of revenue is a result of the over-exploitation and mismanagement of fish stocks, and is exacerbated by the effects of climate change on the distribution of fish.

Read more: It might be the world’s biggest ocean, but the mighty Pacific is in peril

Such illegal behaviour does have serious consequences, as shown in Buoyancy, a 2019 film about forced labour on Thai fishing boats.

While the film is fictional, it’s inspired by the true conditions and events that can happen at sea, after the writer-director interviewed fishers who’d been trafficked on trawlers. He said while the ill treatment of workers portrayed in the film is extreme, it’s a mild version of the reality.

We surveyed Vietnamese fishers for our research. They told us fish stock depletion in domestic waters and their displacement from disputed waters in the South China Sea means they’re driven as far afield as Palau and Australia in search of catches.

This is illegal, as these fishers are not permitted to catch fish in these countries.

The fishers say they are aware of the high chance of being caught, and feel shame at home when they’re convicted for illegal fishing. Still, the need to make a living forces these marginalised people to make risky choices.

When transparency is too radical

A popular proposal for addressing illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing has been increasing the transparency of fisheries. For example, environmental NGOs are pressing countries to share vessel tracking data and, in some cases, making this data publicly available.

While transparency can help reduce illegal fishing, the key question is: transparency at what cost?

Public ship-tracking data reveals fishing locations to competitors. For fishers, knowledge of these locations informs their business, and being forced to share it undermines their competitive advantage.

Likewise, the use of surveillance also comes with big caveats. Organisations working to fight illegal fishing commonly use anti-collision messages that vessels send each other to track vessels without their consent.

Re-purposing this safety system for the surveillance of fishing vessels may undermine its effectiveness for increasing safety at sea. Even vessels operating legally may not want their positions posted on publicly available websites.

Read more: Poor Filipino fishermen are making millions protecting whale sharks

Yes, data sharing and oversight is necessary among consumers, the supply chain and the regulators. But it’s unclear why outside parties, indeed the public, need access to this data.

Compare this to online fraud: web servers aren’t required to make all data on users and content publicly available. Just as e-commerce is a legitimate activity, and those in the system are entitled to protect their commercial advantages, so is fishing a legitimate activity with similar rights, within a well-regulated system.

In the end, oversight is essential for a well-functioning regulatory system, but so-called “radical transparency” is counterproductive.

Investing wisely

The member countries of the United Nations have committed to address illegal fishing as a component of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. But as the clock is ticking toward the 2030 delivery date, a clear-eyed assessment of the link between the problem and solutions is needed.

All those involved in combating illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing should have a clear understanding of what illegal fishing is, its drivers and participants, what crimes are likely associated with it, and what the most effective solutions are.

Confusing smugglers using former fishing vessels with fishers, or making investments in radical transparency and surveillance that make enforcement more complicated, are counterproductive.

Read more: US-China fight over fishing is really about world domination

To help government and industries across the world address illegal fishing, we need more investment in better targeted data analysis and technologies and to build the skills of surveillance officers to improve identification of illegal fishing.

This would allow us to focus money and time to understand and solve the complex challenge illegal fishing poses. Given the limited scale of funding for combating illegal fishing and meeting the UN Sustainable Development Goals, it’s critical the global community invests wisely.

– ref. Crimes at sea: when we frame illegal fishers as human and drug smugglers, everyone loses – https://theconversation.com/crimes-at-sea-when-we-frame-illegal-fishers-as-human-and-drug-smugglers-everyone-loses-152231

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Verica Rupar, Professor, Auckland University of Technology

“The lie outlasts the liar,” writes historian Timothy Snyder, referring to outgoing president Donald Trump and his contribution to the “post-truth” era in the US.

Indeed, the mass rejection of reason that erupted in a political mob storming Capitol Hill mere weeks before the inauguration of Joe Biden tests our ability to comprehend contemporary American politics and its emerging forms of extremism.

Much has been written about Trump’s role in spreading misinformation and the media failures that enabled him. His contribution to fuelling extremism, flirting with the political fringe, supporting conspiracy theories and, most of all, Twitter demagogy created an environment in which he has been seen as an “accelerant” in his own right.

If the scale of international damage is yet to be calculated, there is something we can measure right now.

In September last year, the London-based Media Diversity Institute (MDI) asked us to design a research project that would systematically track the extent to which US-originated conspiracy theory group QAnon had spread to Europe.

Titled QAnon 2: spreading conspiracy theories on Twitter, the research is part of the international Get the Trolls Out! (GTTO) project, focusing on religious discrimination and intolerance.

Twitter and the rise of QAnon

GTTO media monitors had earlier noted the rise of QAnon support among Twitter users in Europe and were expecting a further surge of derogatory talk ahead of the 2020 US presidential election.

We examined the role religion played in spreading conspiracy theories, the most common topics of tweets, and what social groups were most active in spreading QAnon ideas.

We focused on Twitter because its increasing use — some sources estimate 330 million people used Twitter monthly in 2020 — has made it a powerful political communication tool. It has given politicians such as Trump the opportunity to promote, facilitate and mobilise social groups on an unprecedented scale.

Read more: QAnon and the storm of the U.S. Capitol: The offline effect of online conspiracy theories

Using AI tools developed by data company Textgain, we analysed about half-a-million Twitter messages related to QAnon to identify major trends.

By observing how hashtags were combined in messages, we examined the network structure of QAnon users posting in English, German, French, Dutch, Italian and Spanish. Researchers identified about 3,000 different hashtags related to QAnon used by 1,250 Twitter profiles.

An American export

Every fourth QAnon tweet originated in the US (300). Far behind were tweets from other countries: Canada (30), Germany (25), Australia (20), the United Kingdom (20), the Netherlands (15), France (15), Italy (10), Spain (10) and others.

We examined QAnon profiles that share each other’s content, Trump tweets and YouTube videos, and found over 90% of these profiles shared the content of at least one other identified profile.

Seven main topics were identified: support for Trump, support for EU-based nationalism, support for QAnon, deep state conspiracies, coronavirus conspiracies, religious conspiracies and political extremism.

Read more: Far-right activists on social media telegraphed violence weeks in advance of the attack on the US Capitol

Hashtags rooted in US evangelicalism sometimes portrayed Trump as Jesus, as a superhero, or clad in medieval armour, with underlying Biblical references to a coming apocalypse in which he will defeat the forces of evil.

Overall, the coronavirus pandemic appears to function as an important conduit for all such messaging, with QAnon acting as a rallying flag for discontent among far-right European movements.

Measuring the toxicity of tweets

We used Textgain’s hate-speech detection tools to assess toxicity. Tweets written in English had a high level of antisemitism. In particular, they targeted public figures such as Jewish-American billionaire investor and philanthropist George Soros, or revived old conspiracies about secret Jewish plots for world domination. Soros was also a popular target in other languages.

We also found a highly polarised debate around the coronavirus public health measures employed in Germany, often using Third Reich rhetoric.

New language to express negative sentiments was coined and then adopted by others — in particular, pejorative terms for face masks and slurs directed at political leaders and others who wore masks.

Accompanying memes ridiculed political leaders, displaying them as alien reptilian overlords or antagonists from popular movies, such as Star Wars Sith Lords and the cyborg from The Terminator.

Most of the QAnon profiles tap into the same sources of information: Trump tweets, YouTube disinformation videos and each other’s tweets. It forms a mutually reinforcing confirmation bias — the tendency to search for, interpret, favour, and recall information that confirms prior beliefs or values.

Read more: Despite being permanently banned, Trump’s prolific Twitter record lives on

Where does it end?

Harvesting discontent has always been a powerful political tool. In a digital world this is more true than ever.

By mid 2020, Donald Trump had six times more followers on Twitter than when he was elected. Until he was suspended from the platform, his daily barrage of tweets found a ready audience in ultra-right groups in the US who helped his misinformation and inflammatory rhetoric jump the Atlantic to Europe.

Social media platforms have since attempted to reduce the spread of QAnon. In July 2020, Twitter suspended 7,000 QAnon-related accounts. In August, Facebook deleted over 790 groups and restricted the accounts of hundreds of others, along with thousands of Instagram accounts.

Read more: Trump’s Twitter feed shows ‘arc of the hero,’ from savior to showdown

In January this year, all Trump’s social media accounts were either banned or restricted. Twitter suspended 70,000 accounts that share QAnon content at scale.

But further Textgain analysis of 50,000 QAnon tweets posted in December and January showed toxicity had almost doubled, including 750 tweets inciting political violence and 500 inciting violence against Jewish people.

Those tweets were being systematically removed by Twitter. But calls for violence ahead of the January 20 inauguration continued to proliferate, Trump’s QAnon supporters appearing as committed and vocal as ever.

The challenge for both the Biden administration and the social media platforms themselves is clear. But our analysis suggests any solution will require a coordinated international effort.

– ref. Trump’s time is up, but his Twitter legacy lives on in the global spread of QAnon conspiracy theories – https://theconversation.com/trumps-time-is-up-but-his-twitter-legacy-lives-on-in-the-global-spread-of-qanon-conspiracy-theories-153298

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rob Brooks, Scientia Professor of Evolutionary Ecology; Academic Lead of UNSW’s Grand Challenges Program, UNSW

The views of women and men can differ on important gendered issues such as abortion, gender equity and government spending priorities. Surprisingly, however, average differences in sex on this front are usually small. Many women adopt social and political positions that favour men and many men favour women-friendly positions.

In our latest research we tried to make sense of this “paradox”. We did so by understanding how people’s politics and practices don’t just track what’s good for them, but also what’s good for their relatives.

Election campaign games

A mere three days after his 2016 inauguration, US President Donald Trump reinstated the Mexico City policy, also called the “global gag rule” — which Joe Biden is expected to rescind soon after being inaugurated this week.

The rule denies US health funding to foreign non-governmental organisations that provide abortions, refer patients for abortions, offer abortion-related counselling or advocate for more liberal abortion laws.

It wasn’t just Trump’s haste to reinstate the rule that galled pro-choice Americans. It was also the supporting cast of men Trump lined up for the photo-op.

Access to abortion is seen as a women’s issue as it impinges on women’s bodily autonomy and reproductive rights. Had Trump not been appealing to male voters, he could have gathered several prominent anti-choice women to stand behind him instead.

But despite expectations and rhetoric, support for abortion is far more complicated than a simple tussle between the interests of women and men.

Think of the children

Polling conducted in the US by Gallup between 2018 and 2020 found 49% of men and 46% of women identified as “pro-life”. A similar gap was observed between “pro-choice” men and women, at 46% and 48% respectively.

“Pro-choice” policies give women options to control their own reproduction and, therefore, an important part of their lives. It would seem rational then for women to support these policies more than men.

Other policies relating to gender equity, sexual harassment, health-care spending and education also impact women and men differently. And while both genders’ views on these topics differ, the difference is quite small on average – in the order of 5%.

Variation of social and political views within a sex group is actually far greater. While this is commonly thought to be due to differences in experience, we wanted to know whether the composition of a person’s family might change their views.

Our line of inquiry was inspired by a range of studies that have shown a child’s gender can change their parents’ views.

For instance, firms led by male CEOs with daughters tend to adopt more socially and environmentally-progressive corporate policies. They’re also more likely to appoint female directors and hire female partners, with positive effects on firm performance.

On the other hand, male CEOs of Danish firms who fathered a son, rather than a daughter, paid their employees less generously and paid themselves more generously.

A similar pattern emerges in politics. In the US, legislators with daughters are more likely to vote for “pro-woman” laws than those with sons. And in both the US and Canada, parents with daughters favour gender equity more than those with sons.

Sometimes the effects become visible even before offspring have had much chance to experience the world.

In one study, the birth of a son caused parents’ voting intentions to swerve immediately to the right, while a daughter prompted a swerve to the left. In another, the effects kicked in as soon as the parents learned their child’s sex at a prenatal ultrasound.

How your family’s composition can impact you

Research published in 1992 found people’s attitudes towards abortion varied depending on how many of their female relatives were in the age group considered “at risk” of unwanted pregnancy.

The more female relatives someone had aged between 15–50, the more likely they were to favour pro-choice policies. In turn, the more male relatives they had of a reproductive age, the more likely they were to support pro-life policies.

This study inspired us to consider whether gendered issues might depend not only on an individual’s own sex, but also the sex composition of their family. Humans, like other animals, are more invested in their close genetic relatives.

Read more: Origins of altruism: why Hamilton still rules 50 years on

We propose a new metric called “gendered fitness interests”. This not only looks at how many genetic relatives of each sex a person has, but also how closely related they are and how many potential reproductive years remain for them.

People with many close, younger female relatives (such as daughters and sisters) have a pro-female bias, while those with plenty of young brothers, sons or grandsons have a bias that favours males.

For her PhD studies at the University of New South Wales, Maleke Fourati gathered data on attitudes towards Islamic veiling practices in Tunisia — specifically on mandatory veiling — which provided an early test of our idea of gendered fitness interests.

As predicted, men were more likely than women to support mandatory veiling. But women with more sons were more likely to wear veils themselves and to think other women should too. These mothers, we argue, take this position as it serves their sons over their daughters-in-law.

In our model, sex differences in social and political attitudes are likely to be greatest in young adulthood, when a person’s own gender impacts them greatly. However, as an individual’s potential to have children diminishes, their current children and other relatives start to have a greater influence. Since most people have a balance of male and female relatives, this means a shift towards the centre.

Separating sex from identity

The web of conflicting interests that give shape to our social and political attitudes is never easy to trace and there are always multiple factors at play.

Perhaps the most interesting implication of our proposal is it undermines the idea that the interests of women and men sit at odds with one another. Some individuals’ values will align more with the opposite sex than with their own, weakening the importance of gender as a distinct part of social and political identity.

Read more: Expanding the definition of family to reflect our realities

– ref. Family matters: why people can hold political views that disadvantage their own sex – https://theconversation.com/family-matters-why-people-can-hold-political-views-that-disadvantage-their-own-sex-153302

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jennifer S. Hunt, Lecturer in National Security, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

Every four years on January 20, the US exercises a key tenant of democratic government: the peaceful transfer of power. This year, the scene looks a bit different.

If the last US presidential inauguration in 2017 debuted the phrase “alternative facts”, the 2021 inauguration represents their deadly consequences. After conspiracy-theory inspired violence laid siege to the Capitol Building where lawmakers met to confirm the election results, more than 20,000 troops now patrol the US Capitol to ensure the transition goes ahead smoothly against calls for insurrection.

The threat of disinformation and alternative facts has taken many forms over the past several years, from conspiracy theories about climate change to COVID-19, culminating in a 2019 FBI memo warning about the threat of “conspiracy-theory driven domestic extremists”, particularly around elections.

It follows years of warnings from national security practitioners and scholars about the growing risk of domestic extremists. More recently, as reported by the FBI and ASIO, these groups have used the global pandemic to recruit and radicalise new members, seizing on the isolation and uncertainty to offer a sense of community and clarity of purpose.

The conspiracy theory that drove the violence at the Capitol Building has been building for the past four years. During this time, US President Donald Trump has decried any contest he does not win as fraudulent.

More recently, he has called his supporters to action, warning that there will be “no God” and “no country” without him as president. Though the attack only lasted a few hours, the consequences will linger for years.

As Joe Biden prepares to become the 46th president of the United States, managing the fallout from it will be one of his gravest challenges.

Read more: As US election day nears, the outcome won’t be simply a matter of political will

The long-standing threat of right-wing extremists

This threat appears to have been taken seriously by long-standing national security experts and scholars. But action against it was hindered under the Trump administration.

Starting in 2017, federal funding for tackling white nationalist and other far right extremist activity was cut, including university research and non-profit deradicalisation organisations such asLife After Hate

Last year, a whistleblower report from the Department of Homeland Security alleged senior intelligence officials were instructed to modify intelligence assessments to match Trump’s rhetoric and modify the section on White Supremacy in a manner that made the threat appear less severe.

During 2020, diverse groups stormed state legislative buildings to evade COVID-19 mitigation efforts and intimidate lawmakers at the behest of Trump.

Despite these public signs of growing extremist violence, even some lawmakers appeared to be caught unaware by the Capitol insurrection. In an opinion piece just after the event, Republican Senator Susan Collins wrote she first assumed the attack was coming from Iran.

Trump has demonstrated that conspiracy theories can drive electoral and fundraising success. Having started his political campaign with the “birther” conspiracy theory, challenging the citizenship and eligibility of American-born Barack Obama, Trump also cast shadows over his Republican rivals, including Ted Cruz, by accusing Cruz’s father of being linked to the man who killed JFK.

Similarly, Trump will end his administration on a conspiracy theory, one that has already cost five lives. Despite recent backlash from business leaders in America, Trump fundraised more than $200 million after election night on the basis of his refusal to concede defeat.

Recent Congressional races have further demonstrated the success of Trump’s template. Holocaust-deniers in three states ran for office in 2018 (all as Republicans). Two of the newest members of Congress are members of QAnon, the inheritor of the “pizzagate” conspiracy theory, in which all who oppose Trump are deep state members of a international child sex trafficking cabal.

Read more: Why the alt-right believes another American Revolution is coming

The challenge ahead for Biden

Where then, does this leave policy-making on national and global issues that require sober reflection and good judgement?

Alternative facts have no place in good governance. Their purpose is only to destroy and divide. This is why disinformation has been pursued so aggressively by hostile foreign actors against the US, with Russian active measures detailed extensively by the Republican chaired Senate Intelligence Committee reports.

Voter fraud, one of the key narratives of Russian efforts in election interference in 2016, has now become mainstreamed in the Republican base, with nearly half of respondents expressing doubt about Biden’s win. Public assurances by Republican secretaries of state have had limited impact, culminating in Trump’s taped conversation in which he asks the Georgia Secretary of state to “find” 11,000 votes for him (to win).

Joe Biden should focus on repairing Americans’ frayed trust in institutions and rehabilitate America’s battered reputation. At the same time, he should lead with science and fact, most immediately in tackling the nation’s COVID crisis.

Where conspiracy theories go hand in hand with corruption (such as Trump soliciting an election official to tamper with results), state authorities should pursue charges. Where disinformation has proven lucrative, tools should be explored to remove financial rewards. For instance, non-profit organisations that participated in or fundraised what the Joint Chiefs of Staff declared as “sedition and insurrection” could be stripped of protective tax status.

Some of these remedies lie firmly with Congress. Impeachment proceedings are already underway which could remove Trump’s ability to run in 2024. The 14th Amendment could be applied to expel or bar current office holders who participated in the insurrection from running for election again.

Read more: Trump is impeached again in historic vote. Now Republicans must decide the future of their party

Trump has recently condemned the violence done in his name. But he has not disavowed the rationale for it. His supporters within the Republican base, media and elected ranks continue to repeat his conspiracy theories on Fox “entertainment” shows, on AM radio, and now the halls of Congress. More than 100 US Representatives voted against certifying the ballots on which they themselves were elected.

The next few years will see investigations, commissions and reports detailing the failures that led up to the Capitol attacks. Any delay in accountability could see even more lives lost to conspiracy theories and those who profit from them.

– ref. As Joe Biden prepares to become president, the US still reels from the deadly consequences of ‘alternative facts’ – https://theconversation.com/as-joe-biden-prepares-to-become-president-the-us-still-reels-from-the-deadly-consequences-of-alternative-facts-153449

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Collins, Laureate Professor in Nutrition and Dietetics, University of Newcastle

In Australia and around the world, research is showing changes in body weight, cooking, eating and drinking patterns associated with COVID lockdowns.

Some changes have been positive, such as people cooking at home more, and eating more vegetables.

But many people have also reported snacking more, and eating and drinking in response to stress.

As the new year starts, you may be planning to tackle COVID-related weight gain. Before you do, consider that it may be better to focus on your eating patterns, rather than looking to the latest fad diet.

Emotional eating and weight gain

A survey of 13,829 Australian adults found one in five reported drinking more alcohol during COVID. In a survey of over 22,000 drinkers in the United Kingdom, one-quarter reported drinking more than usual over the previous week.

In Italy, of 602 people surveyed about changes in their eating habits during isolation, almost half said they sought “comfort foods” and ate more to feel better.

Eating and drinking alcohol boosts the release of “feel good” chemicals in your brain, making you feel better in the short term.

During times of stress, anxiety and boredom, like during lockdown, food and alcohol can seem like a quick fix. But overindulging isn’t going to help you in the long term.

According to a global WebMD poll on self-reported weight gain during the pandemic, about one-quarter of people in Hong Kong and Germany reported gaining weight, roughly 45% in Australia, Canada and the UK, and over 60% in Brazil and Italy.

United States respondents who reported putting on weight were asked to estimate how much weight they thought they had gained. Some 49% said less than 3 kilograms, 26% said 3-4kg, and 25% reported more than 4.5kg.

Participants believed a lack of exercise, stress eating and drinking more alcohol were contributing factors.

Read more: Health Check: what’s the best diet for weight loss?

It’s not just about weight

While weight gain can increase your risk of health problems, recent research suggests having healthy eating patterns is more important than weight.

A US study of 210,000 adults followed for up to 32 years found that irrespective of body weight, having a high diet quality was associated with lower risk of heart disease and stroke compared to having low diet quality.

A “high-quality” diet includes lots of variety within the basic food groups of vegetables, fruit and wholegrains, and includes limited junk food. A “low-quality diet” is the opposite.

Similarly, a Swedish study followed 79,000 adults over 21 years and found that among people with a higher body weight, also having a high-quality diet was protective against dying from any cause. But having a body weight in the healthy range was not protective among those who had a low-quality diet.

While higher diet quality is associated with better overall health, increasing your diet quality can also help reduce weight.

Read more: Health Check: six tips for losing weight without fad diets

4 tips to improve your diet and beat COVID kilos

Home cooking and eating together

If you spent more time cooking and eating meals at home during the pandemic, keep doing it. As well as being better for you than eating take-away foods and ready-made meals, it promotes well-being.

A study of 160 adults found people who ate healthy foods cooked at home experienced more intense positive emotions and worried less, compared to people who ate away from home.

For adolescents, a review found frequent family meals were associated higher self-esteem and other indicators of better mental health.

Eat more vegetables and fruit

A US study of 133,468 adults found those who increased their vegetable and fruit intakes lost weight. Every extra daily serve of fruit was associated with a weight loss of 250 grams over a four-year period, and every extra daily serve of vegetables with a loss of 110 grams. People who ate more berries, apples, pears, cauliflower, green leafy vegetables and carrots experienced greater weight loss.

This has well-being benefits too. For example, an Australian study which followed 12,385 adults from 2007 to 2013 and found greater life satisfaction, happiness and well-being among those who increased their intake of vegetables and fruit.

Try buying bigger quantities and a greater variety of vegetables and fruit when you do your grocery shopping.

Keep a food diary

Recording what you eat and drink and then checking the kilojoule and nutrient content helps boost your knowledge of what’s in various foods and drinks. It also increases awareness of your eating habits, especially snacking. You can use an app or pen and paper.

Once you’ve recorded your food and drink intake for a few days, you will notice areas to target for improvement.

You might also consider keeping a mood diary. This can help you identify other ways to improve your diet quality. The mood you’re in affects your food choices and your food choices affect your mood. Keeping track of both food and mood helps to identify triggers for eating.

Plan meals and snacks ahead

Check what ingredients you already have and plan meals and snacks to use these up. Next write a grocery list, just for what you need. Even if you’re staying home, prepare your lunch and snacks for the day in advance. This saves you time, money, limits food waste and reduces the number of times you have to think about food.

Read more: How we cook changed during lockdown – and we can learn from this for life after the pandemic

Visit the No Money No Time website to check your diet quality score using our free healthy eating quiz and find simple, inexpensive and healthy recipes.

If you’d like to learn more about food, nutrition and weight management, enrol in our free online course, The Science of Weight Loss – Dispelling Diet Myths, which starts on January 27.

– ref. Not feeling motivated to tackle those sneaky COVID kilos? Try these 4 healthy eating tips instead – https://theconversation.com/not-feeling-motivated-to-tackle-those-sneaky-covid-kilos-try-these-4-healthy-eating-tips-instead-152316

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hao Tan, Associate professor, University of Newcastle

Australian coal exports to China plummeted last year. While this is due in part to recent trade tensions between Australia and China, our research suggests coal plant closures are a bigger threat to Australia’s export coal in the long term.

China unofficially banned Australian coal in mid-2020. Some 70 ships carrying Australian coal have reportedly been unable to unload in China since October.

This is obviously bad news for Australia’s coal exporters. But even if the ban is lifted, there’s no guarantee China will start buying Australian coal again – at least not in huge volumes.

China is changing. It’s announced a firm date to reach net-zero emissions, and governments in eastern provinces don’t want polluting coal plants taking up prime real estate. It’s time Australia faced reality, and reconsidered its coal export future.

First, the coal ban

In May last year, China’s government effectively banned the import of Australian coal, by applying stringent import quotas. As of last month coal exports to China from Newcastle, Australia’s busiest coal exporting port, had ceased.

In 2019, Australia exported A$13.7 billion worth of coal to China. This comprised A$9.7 billion in metallurgical coal for steel making and A$4 billion in thermal coal for electricity generation.

The latest official Australian data shows these export levels fell dramatically between November 2019 and November 2020. Comparing the two months, metallurgical and thermal coal exports to China were down 85% and 83% respectively.

Read more: China just stunned the world with its step-up on climate action – and the implications for Australia may be huge

Several Chinese provinces experienced power blackouts in late 2020. China’s state-backed media said the shortages were unrelated to the ban on Australian coal. Instead, they blamed cold weather and the recovery in industrial activity after the pandemic.

We dispute this claim. While Australian coal accounts for only about 2% of coal consumption in China, it helps maintain reliable supply for many power stations in China’s southeast coastal provinces.

Coal mining in China mostly occurs in the western provinces. Southeast coastal provinces are largely economically advanced and no longer produce coal. Instead, power stations in those provinces import coal from overseas.

This coal is cheaper than domestic coal, and often easier to access; transport bottlenecks in China often hinder the movement of domestic coal.

Beyond the trade tensions

Experience suggests trade tensions between Australia and China will eventually ease. But in the long run, there is a more fundamental threat to Australian coal exports to China.

Data from monitoring group Global Coal Tracker shows between 2015 and 2019, China closed 291 coal-fired power generation units in power plants of 30 megawatts (MW) or larger, totalling 37 gigawatts (GW) of capacity. For context, Australia decommissioned 5.5 GW of coal-fired power generation units between 2010 and 2017, and currently has 21 GW of coal-fired power stations.

The closures were driven by factors such as climate change and air pollution concern, excess coal power capacity, and China’s move away from some energy-intensive industries.

Our recently published paper revealed other distinctive features of the coal power station closures.

Read more: The Paris Agreement 5 years on: big coal exporters like Australia face a reckoning

First, China’s regions are reducing coal power capacity at different rates and scales. In the nation’s eastern provinces, the closures are substantial. But elsewhere, and particularly in the western provinces, new coal plants are being built.

In fact, China’s coal power capacity increased by about 18% between 2015 and 2019. It currently has more than 1,000 GW of coal generation capacity – the largest in the world.

Second, we found retired coal power stations in China had much shorter lives than the international average. Guangdong, an economically developed region of comparable economic size to Canada, illustrates the point. According to our calculation, the stations in that region had a median age of 15 years at closure. In contrast, coal plants that closed in Australia between 2010 and 2017 had a median age of 43 years.

This suggests coal power stations in China are usually retired not because they’ve reached the end of their productive lives, but rather to achieve a particular purpose.

Third, our study showed decisions to decommission coal power stations in China were largely driven by government, especially local governments. This is in contrast to Australia, where the decision to close a plant is usually made by the company that owns it. And this decomissioning in China is usually driven by a development logic.

Coal plant closures there have been faster and bigger than elsewhere in the country, as governments replace energy- and pollution-intensive industries with advanced manufacturing and services.

And as these regions become richer, the value of land occupied by coal power plants and transmission facilities grows. This gives governments a strong incentive to close the plants and redevelop the sites.

In coming years, southeast China will increasingly shift to renewable-based electricity and electric power transmitted from western provinces.

Securing our energy future

Coal power stations in China’s eastern coastal regions will continue to close in coming years, and power generation capacity will be redistributed to western provinces. For reasons outlined above, that means power generation in China will increasingly rely on domestic coal rather than that from Australia.

China’s coal exit is in part due to its strategy to peak its carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve net-zero by 2060. Australia must realistically appraise its coal export prospects in light of the long-term threat posed by shifts in China and other East Asian nations.

The Morrison government, and industry, should re-double efforts to rapidly expand renewable energy in Australia. Then we can leave coal behind, and emerge as a renewable energy superpower.

Read more: Want an economic tonic, Mr Morrison? Use that stimulus money to turbocharge renewables

– ref. Forget about the trade spat – coal is passé in much of China, and that’s a bigger problem for Australia – https://theconversation.com/forget-about-the-trade-spat-coal-is-passe-in-much-of-china-and-thats-a-bigger-problem-for-australia-153300

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Asha Bowen, Head, Skin Health, Telethon Kids Institute

A year ago, in late January 2020, Australia reported its first cases of COVID-19. Since then, we have seen almost 29,000 confirmed cases and 909 deaths.

As cases climbed in Australian cities in 2020, many students did their schoolwork from home. Australia, including Victoria, came out of lockdowns at the end of last year. But due to outbreaks in New South Wales and Queensland over Christmas and New Year, that impacted on Victoria, restrictions remain in some places.

So what now, for the new school year? Is it safe for students to go back to school?

What we learnt in 2020

Australian health officials, paediatricians, and federal and state education departments worked together to understand how SARS-CoV-2 — the virus that causes COVID-19 — is transmitted in Australian schools.

They also kept updating, as more information came to light, what schools can do to provide a safe learning environment for children and staff.

Up to the end of term 3 in New South Wales, 49 student- and 24 staff- cases were linked to schools and early learning centres. Each of these cases, and their contacts, were followed since the pandemic began. Schools had low rates of transmission — with 51 transmission events (38 students, 13 staff) out of 5,793 contacts traced (<1%) — in terms 1, 2, and 3 when COVID-19 safe measures were in place.

Key measures were:

• limiting adults in the school and early learning centre grounds

• staying home when unwell with cold-like symptoms

• getting tested early.

Most schools and early learning centres in NSW reopened after only a few days.

In Victoria, up until the end of August 2020, 1,635 cases were associated with early learning centres and schools. These consisted of 254 staff, 599 students and 753 household members, out of a total of 19,109 cases in Victoria during their second wave.

Two-thirds of infections in early learning centres and schools did not progress to outbreaks (two or more cases) and more than 90% were small outbreaks (fewer than ten cases).

Read more: Behind Victoria’s decision to open primary schools to all students: report shows COVID transmission is rare

While transmission has been connected with a Victorian school in the media, transmission events often have a more complex basis than just occurring in the classroom. Schools are often located in a multi-generational community and cases in this large school cluster were linked to high community transmission rates rather than infection in the school.

These studies confirm that when SARS-CoV-2 is detected in a student or staff member, it is very unlikely for other students or staff to be infected at school with the processes put in place in 2020 to provide a safe learning environment.

In Western Australia, almost 14,000 asymptomatic staff and students were swabbed at the school in terms 2 and 3. No cases of SARS-CoV-2 were detected, consistent with the absence of community transmission in that state.

But why are other countries closing schools?

Overseas, studies have shown schools can implement health strategies to safely keep schools open and minimise SARS-CoV-2 transmission risks.

In the US, the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention noted that: “trends among children and adolescents aged 0–17 years paralleled those among adults”. However, the organisation also reported:

as of the week beginning December 6, aggregate COVID-19 incidence among the general population in counties where K–12 schools offer in-person education (401.2 per 100,000) was similar to that in counties offering only virtual/online education (418.2 per 100,000).

In Norway, where testing is strong, schools were open with mitigation measures in place. There was minimal child-to-child (0.9%, 2 out of 234) and child-to-adult (1.7%, 1 out of 58) transmission.

Other countries have chosen to close schools as a last resort in national lockdowns in the face of extremely high rates of community transmission and daily case numbers, which meant only widespread reductions in population movements could be effective. This is not the case in Australia at the start of term 1, 2021.

Read more: Children may transmit coronavirus at the same rate as adults: what we now know about schools and COVID-19

It is common for viruses to evolve and there have now been several new variants of concern such as those identified in the UK, South Africa and Brazil which are more transmissible. The potential of such variants entering Australia is uncertain, and so is the risk of transmission in schools.

Reassuringly, if community transmission of such a variant occurs in Australia, we have established experience to monitor, and hopefully halt, its spread.

So, what should Australia do?

Remote learning provides considerable challenges to keep students engaged, reduces the close supervision and support in the classroom, and provides an added disadvantage for children with mental-health conditions, disabilities or special needs.

For parents, it is difficult to work effectively, provide for the family and maintain their well-being when their child is learning from home.

Read more: ‘The workload was intense’: what parents told us about remote learning

Based on the above evidence, schools are safe to open. But states should adopt mitigation measures — including when to add masks, reduce attendance or close schools — according to a traffic light system from green (standard measures) to red (close schools) based on the degree of community transmission. The Murdoch Children’s Research Institute has recommended this approach for Victoria. Education departments around Australia can consider a similar approach.

This is consistent with the recommendations of Australia’s National Cabinet and international advice.

It is important schools and early learning centres continue to adhere to their local COVID advice. Parents and guardians should check their contact details are up to date so they can be contacted easily, regularly check what restrictions are in place and, when unwell, get their child tested and stay at home.

In 2020, students and staff rapidly learned to regularly wash their hands, adapt to cleaners in the school throughout the day, socially distance and wear masks when required. These public health interventions, vaccination, and testing and tracing will remain the mainstay for the year ahead in Australia.

Monitoring well-being and building resilience will also be core educational activities in the months ahead.

– ref. Coronavirus: is it safe for kids to go back to school? And what about the new mutant strain? – https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-is-it-safe-for-kids-to-go-back-to-school-and-what-about-the-new-mutant-strain-152979

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kevin Davis, Emeritus Professor of Finance, University of Melbourne

Political pressure forced the federal government in 2017 – when Scott Morrison was treasurer – to call the royal commission into misconduct in the banking, superannuation and financial services sector.

Commissioner Kenneth Hayne delivered 76 recommendations to reform the industry in February 2019. Almost two years on, the government has yet to implement 44 of those and turned its back on five key reforms – including curbing irresponsible lending practices.

The COVID crisis can explain some part of its tardiness. It cannot explain the decision to weaken protections for the financial health and welfare of Australian consumers.

The axing of responsible lending obligations (RLOs) under the National Consumer Credit Protection Act 2009 is particularly egregious. The government has also rejected Hayne’s recommendations on commission payments for mortgage brokers.

Instead, it appears to be banking on market forces and voluntary codes of conduct to protect financially unsophisticated borrowers. This is the triumph of ideology and vested interests over logic and evidence.

Read more: Vital signs. It’s one thing to back down on Hayne’s recommendation about mortgage brokers, it’s another to offer nothing in its place

Plenty of credit

The case for removing responsible lending obligations rests on a number of unsupported assertions.

First, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has argued lending needs be made easier to “kickstart” economic growth in these troubled times. The responsible lending obligations, he has said, increase the cost and time involved in making lending decisions.

But it is difficult to discern evidence in public statistics that responsible lending obligations have adversely affected loan growth or the cost of household-sector borrowing.

It is true lending for investment properties has plummeted, but that reflects changes in banks’ risk assessment and pricing of such loans. Owner-occupied lending has remained relatively strong and appears poised for further growth, likely raising existing house prices as much as stimulating new construction.

Personal lending has been declining for some years. But alternative ways to access personal credit, such as mortgage offset and redraw accounts, have grown.

New forms of “personal credit” such as Buy Now Pay Later and payday lending also appear to be growing strongly. These have generally skirted responsible lending requirements and arguably call for strengthening, not winding back, consumer protection laws.

Confusing regulatory roles

The second invalid assertion is that oversight of bank lending by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority can substitute for explicit responsible lending laws enforced by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

This misconstrues APRA’s mandate and expertise, which is focused on institutional safety, not on consumer protection. APRA should be interested in the specifics of a very large loan that may affect the lender’s financial strength. It cannot be expected to examine thousands of smaller loans.

Fears no longer relevant

The third assertion is that responsible lending regulations have made lenders “increasingly risk averse and overly conservative”, out of fear of incurring onerous penalties.

That might have had some relevance in the past. But not so much since ASIC’s failed “Wagyu and Shiraz” case against Westpac in the Federal Court in 2020. The regulator accused the bank of breaching its responsible lending obligations by approving home loans using an automated estimate of applicants’ annual living expenses (known as the Household Expenditure Measure) rather than examining actual expenditure.

The Federal Court rejected ASIC’s argument – with the case acquiring its name due to the colourful analogy Justice Nye Perram used in his judgement:

I may eat Wagyu beef everyday washed down with the finest Shiraz but, if I really want my new home, I can make do on much more modest fare.

ASIC issued revised lending regulations in December 2019. It would have been more seemly for the government to have allowed more time to see how these changed regulations were working before abolishing them.

Loan processing costs should be falling

A fourth assertion is the excessive cost of gathering and processing borrower information. But the development of “open banking” is enabling fintechs to harvest data of consenting borrowers and provide information at lower cost than ever before.

Relying on codes of conduct is an act of faith

Finally, it is claimed that reforming industry codes of conduct, incorporating responsible lending objectives and making them legally enforceable, removes the need for separate lending laws.

But past experience with “self-regulation” does not promote confidence this approach will work.

Read more: Lunch with bankers. Even they’re unimpressed with their new Banking Code of Conduct

Review preferable to removal

A case might be made that the consumer protection regulatory regime has become unduly complex over time and warrants a full-scale review with simplification an objective.

But simplification is not the same as abandonment. There was a reason the government found itself under so much pressure to call the royal commission; and a reason Commissioner Hayne made those 76 recommendations.

This is a bad look for the federal government. It has the hallmarks of political opportunism, using the COVID crisis to be a friend of business at the expense of consumers.

– ref. Ideology triumphs over evidence: Morrison government drops the ball on banking reform – https://theconversation.com/ideology-triumphs-over-evidence-morrison-government-drops-the-ball-on-banking-reform-153529

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Justin Ellis, Lecturer in Criminology at the University of Newcastle, University of Newcastle

The Rise and Fall of Saint George is a story about place, belonging and community that taps into universal tensions of identity and faith in multicultural societies.

Playing for one night only at the Sydney Festival, the breezy and open space of the Headland at Barangaroo Reserve with Sydney Harbour as backdrop provided an additional dose of catharsis to this haunting and humorous tribute to freedom exemplifying the transformative power of music.

Electronica composer and musician Paul Mac and playwright Lachlan Philpott collaborated to create a personal and poignant reflection on the divisive national same-sex marriage debate in Australia and one of its local consequences: the destruction of a giant mural of George Michael in Newtown by several young men in separate incidences, one of whom claimed it violated his Christian faith.

Reflection and healing

Scott Marsh’s mural was commissioned by Mac and Johnny Seymour for the side of their home in Newtown following the death of George Michael in 2016. The singer is depicted as a saint in priestly robes with a cross dangling from one ear, his head surrounded by a rainbow-coloured halo and smoking marijuana.

For 11 months, the mural was a site of commemoration, celebration, pilgrimage and reassurance for the residents of Newtown — and further afield, given the made-for-Instagram quality of Marsh’s work.

The mural’s life was cut short by vandals and has become a site of contest over freedom of expression and faith. But this one-hour performance directed by Kate Champion with a huge choir, excellent music and a great lineup of singers is a celebration of life, love and resilience in unpredictable times.

The battle for George’s visibility played out in the performance is both reflection and healing, and a reminder freedoms cannot be taken for granted.

The mood during the marriage equality debate was intense given the divisiveness of the campaign. The result of the postal survey was a resounding yes, but roughly one-in-four of the votes were for no. This is still a lot of people.

Read more: Same-sex marriage survey by the stats: a resounding ‘yes’ but western Sydney leads ‘no’ vote

News audio broadcast from the same-sex marriage debate takes you back to the heightened emotion of that time. Video of Newtown streetscapes evoke the neighbourhood’s narrow and close knit rows of houses, and the lyrics reflect the importance of tolerance and acceptance: “with open minds there’s room for you here”, the choir sings.

Juxtaposed with audio from Penny Wong and Tony Abbott are cheeky and ribald lyrics balancing the gravity of the destruction of the mural with a humour that might ameliorate those violent acts: “Now we have a plebiscite that’s more dinky di than vegemite!”

Listening without prejudice

Rather than drawing on George Michael’s music, the show perpetuates his legacy as a freedom fighter for not only gay rights, but the right to be who you are and live your own truth without judgement.

In this, it embodies his call to listen without prejudice.

Mac speaks candidly about his personal experience of prejudice with the defacement of the mural; the fear the waves of vandalism to the mural caused him, his partner and the local community, and the vigils held to protect the mural.

Threats they received during this time were a reminder of the suspicion and fear divisiveness can generate.

Incidents of defacement were followed by the chalking up of affirmative messages by the local community. The final act of vandalism hid George with black paint reflecting that the ownership of sites of commemoration can be unpredictable.

But out of acts of violence — and resistance to violence — is born a transformative musical experience of community courage and determination.

Both George Michael’s “sainthood” and the push for LGBTQ rights will go on, and will take unpredictable twists and turns that emphasise the need to remain vigilant.

And as the lyrics noted, despite black paint hiding George Michael in the mural, “his soul is aflame”. He remains a beacon for freedom across the globe.

As we stood to leave Barangaroo, and the bright lights of Luna Park twinkled across the harbour, I felt a sense of gratitude. I was thankful to the community who conceived and brought this show to life: a performance that gave us space to reflect and celebrate, that moved the debate on the mural forward, and offered engagement as a solution to prejudice.

The Rise and Fall of Saint George was at Sydney Festival, January 15.

– ref. Sydney Festival review: The Rise and Fall of Saint George shows the transformative power of music – https://theconversation.com/sydney-festival-review-the-rise-and-fall-of-saint-george-shows-the-transformative-power-of-music-153100

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonatan A Lassa, Senior Lecturer, Humanitarian Emergency and Disaster Management, College of Indigenous Futures, Arts and Society, Charles Darwin University

News of storms battering parts of Queensland and the threat posed by Cyclone Kimi reminded me of a recent experience I’d had.

A few months after Cyclone Marcus unleashed havoc on Darwin in 2018, uprooting trees and causing million of dollars worth of damage, I had reason to visit a local caravan park.

I was there to pick up an item I’d bought on Facebook Marketplace from an older long term resident of the park, Anne*, and we got talking about the cyclone.

She described how tents were blown away, property lost and that “none of us were insured, really. So we have to be on our own”. Other Darwin caravan park residents had had their caravans crushed by falling trees, and were similarly uninsured.

These stories are anecdotal, but illustrate a broader problem. Communities living at the margins are often more vulnerable to disaster risk, a problem likely to be exacerbated by climate change.

Read more: A crisis of underinsurance threatens to scar rural Australia permanently

Heat stress, floods, cyclones

People with long-term tenure at caravan parks likely experience higher levels of disadvantage than the population as a whole; many are unemployed or in lower paying jobs, and contending with serious health issues.

As one report published by the St Vincent de Paul Society NSW put it:

Caravan park residents often experience high levels of violence and abusive behaviour, substance abuse and addiction, problem gambling, mental illness and poor physical health in an unsupported environment. A common factor among many residents is a desperate feeling of loneliness.

Many also often live with the threat of heat stress, floods, storms and cyclones. Many are underinsured. Some residents have reported trouble trying to get insured.

Research has identified an urgent need to maximise safety and minimise property exposure at Australian caravan parks. An article published in the Australian Journal of Emergency Management noted:

Not all people will have the capacity to insure against flooding and often the very poorest of people will seek accommodation in caravan parks because of the low rents. However, the caravans, in which they live and contain their valuables, are structures that are more likely to be severely damaged as against the more permanent structures of contemporary houses.

Some of this increased risk is due to the location of caravan parks. As a state engineering consultant put it in one study,

things like caravan parks or holiday parks are often proposed to be located in areas that wouldn’t normally be considered for normal residential development […] There is often a push to have that sort of development in these low-lying, vulnerable areas.

One study on caravan parks in coastal NSW found many were highly exposed to flooding and that:

many parks are ill-equipped to deal with flooding: a high turnover of park managers means that most have no direct experience of floods; attitudes of denial prevail; most parks have no means of raising community flood awareness; and the process of flood response planning is patchy and of poor quality.

Change is possible — and necessary

One study called for more regulation of parks and for park managers to be better equipped with the skills to manage disaster risk.

Urban planners in cyclone-prone areas could look to research on which tree species are most “wind-firm” and least likely to be uprooted in a cyclone — and use this information to inform urban planting strategies. Simply advising caravan-dwellers not to park under trees won’t work, as trees provide much-needed shade to offset heat.

Finding better ways to reduce risk of heat stress to long term caravan residents will grow only more important as the climate changes.

Too often, management of private caravan parks is seen as a problem for private property owners.

But as some researchers have pointed out, caravan parks sometimes operate as a form of social housing, and often house vulnerable populations.

Increasingly, local and state governments may need to play a larger role in ensuring the rights of long term caravan park residents to safe housing are protected, as climate change related disaster risk grows.

Name changed to protect identity. This story is part of a series The Conversation is running on the nexus between disaster, disadvantage and resilience. You can read the rest of the stories here.

– ref. Caravan communities: older, underinsured and overexposed to cyclones, storms and disasters – https://theconversation.com/caravan-communities-older-underinsured-and-overexposed-to-cyclones-storms-and-disasters-151840

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert Crawford, Associate Professor in Construction and Environmental Assessment, University of Melbourne

Over the past few years, Australians have embraced online food delivery services such as UberEats, Deliveroo and Menulog. But home-delivered food comes with a climate cost, and single-use packaging is one of the biggest contributors.

Our research found Australians placed 27 million online food orders in 2018. By 2024, this number is projected to increase to 65 million.

The increasing use of take-away food packaging associated with online meal deliveries is making the food sector’s already massive carbon footprint even larger. Of the five cuisines we examined, packaging from burger meals was responsible for the most emissions, followed by Thai meals.

Last year, lockdowns related to COVID-19 led to a 20% increase in household solid wastes due in part to increased food deliveries. The climate crisis and problems facing Australia’s waste management sector mean we must urgently reduce waste from meals ordered online.

A growing problem

Technology, income and lifestyle changes mean fewer people are cooking at home or dining in restaurants, and more are having food delivered to their door. Some 9.4 million Australians are now registered users of online food delivery services, according to business data platform Statista.

In most cases, online food deliveries require single-use packaging. Producing, transporting and disposing of this packaging requires large quantities of energy and raw materials. Those materials release emissions as they break down in landfill or the environment, or are burned.

Read more: Using lots of plastic packaging during the coronavirus crisis? You’re not alone

Our research found in 2018, the disposal of single use packaging from online food orders in Australia led to 5,600 tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO₂-e) emissions. The sector is growing by more than 15% each year, which means the packaging emissions will reach 13,200 tonnes of CO₂-e in 2024.

Emissions by cuisine

Our study quantified how much greenhouse gas is emitted over the life of food packaging used in online food delivery. Specifically, we examined five popular cuisine types: pizzas, burgers, Indian, Thai and Chinese.

The results, from lowest to highest, are presented below, in terms of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂-e):

• Chinese: 0.16kg CO₂-e for a plastic container and plastic bag

• Indian: 0.18 kg CO₂-e for a plastic container, paper bag and cling film

• Pizza: 0.20g CO₂-e for a cardboard box

• Thai: 0.23 kg CO₂-e for a plastic container and paper bag

• Burger meal: 0.29 kg CO₂-e for a paper bag, paper boxes, plastic straw, liquid paperboard cup with plastic lid and cardboard cup holder.

The typical meal from each restaurant was determined, and the packaging assessed. Obviously, the exact packaging used varies according to the specific order, restaurant and customer preferences, and individual meals may have a carbon footprint higher or lower than average for that cuisine.

We also found a brown paper delivery bag produces far more emissions than a plastic bag, due to the carbon released when it breaks down. However plastic bags generally create more litter and are more toxic to the environment than paper bags.

Worst packaging culprits

Our study found the production of the raw materials used in packaging – that is, fuels for plastic and wood pulp for paper and cardboard – contributes more than 50% of the total packaging emissions. Converting the raw materials into packaging products is the next highest contributor, at between 32% and 48%.

Replacing virgin raw materials with recycled content can reduce production emissions, but only by about 10%, due to the energy required in the recycling process. So reducing packaging use is more important than increasing the recycled content of materials.

Read more: Australia’s waste export ban becomes law, but the crisis is far from over

We also found the packaging disposal method can dramatically influence emissions. We assumed typical recycling rates of between 18% and 77%. However, if all packaging is sent to landfill, disposal-related emissions may increase by up to 15 times compared to the typical disposal scenario.

Paper-based packaging had the greatest disposal emissions due to its high carbon content. If all packaging materials are incinerated, then disposal emissions can be up to 49 times higher than the typical disposal scenario.

Plastics produce least emissions when disposed in landfill as opposed to recycling or incineration. And organic material such as paper and paperboard produce more emissions when disposed to landfill than if recycled or incinerated. So a material-specific approach to waste disposal and processing is important.

The way forward

The task of reducing single-use packaging has been made more urgent by new federal laws banning the export of unprocessed waste from Australia.

Increasing and improving waste recovery and processing infrastructure will help divert waste from landfill. However, packaging production – with both virgin and recycled raw materials – is very emissions-intensive. So producing less packaging in the first place is key to significant emissions reduction.

Online food delivery service providers should make it easier for customers to opt out of certain packaging products, such as bags and utensils. Investment in more environmentally friendly packaging options is also crucial.

Customers have a role to play, and consumer awareness and education campaigns will be important here. Refusing packaging where possible or choosing more eco-friendly options will also help to reduce single-use packaging emissions.

This article draws on research by former University of Melbourne Masters student Indumathi Arunan.

Read more: Recycling is not enough. Zero-packaging stores show we can kick our plastic addiction

– ref. Home-delivered food has a huge climate cost. So which cuisine is the worst culprit? – https://theconversation.com/home-delivered-food-has-a-huge-climate-cost-so-which-cuisine-is-the-worst-culprit-151564

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland

When the coronavirus pandemic hit Australia in March 2020, the Morrison government took bold and imaginative action.

The most notable examples were its income support programs – JobKeeper, paying a A$750 weekly subsidy to employers to keep workers on the payroll, and JobSeeker, which doubled unemployment benefits relative to the Newstart allowance, frozen in real terms for nearly 30 years.

These measures were announced as temporary. The government has already begun winding them back as the economy recovers from the worst impacts of the pandemic. On January 1 the JobSeeker supplement (being paid to about 1.3 million Australians) was cut from A$250 to A$150 a fortnight. It will cease in March.

JobKeeper should end

There are good reasons to phase out JobKeeper. It was designed specifically to assist businesses forced to scale back their activities due to COVID-19 and the restrictions introduced to control it. Eligibility is, therefore, tied to the impact of the lockdowns that took place nationally in the first half of 2020, and again in Victoria from August to October.

With those emergency times behind us, many businesses have returned to something like business as usual, while some have closed for good. Others have been brave enough to start new businesses. JobKeeper isn’t relevant to any of these.

It has been partially replaced by JobMaker, a wage subsidy for employers intended to encourage the employment of younger workers, which is scheduled to be wound back in March and completely phased out by October.

Read more: In defence of JobMaker, the replacement for JobKeeper: not perfect, but much to like

The success of JobKeeper might lead to more consideration to temporary wage subsidies in response to future economic crises, perhaps along the lines of Germany’s Kurzarbeit scheme, which will run at least to the end of the year. But designing such a scheme would take a lot of time. Winding down JobKeeper in the meantime makes sense.

JobSeeker is another matter

The situation is very different with JobSeeker.

The inadequacy of the Newstart payment was widely recognised long before the pandemic. Organisations as disparate as the Australian Council of Social Service, the Business Council of Australia and the OECD have endorsed an increase. Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has said raising Newstart said would do more for the economy than cutting taxes for high income earners.

The system of unemployment benefits in place before JobSeeker worked on the assumption there were jobs aplenty for anyone willing and able. Unemployment was seen as reflecting personal defects or, more charitably, a lack of particular skills needed for “job readiness”.

This assumption was clearly untrue even before the pandemic. As the long history of booms, busts and economic crises have shown us, all workers are vulnerable (some more than others) to losing their job through no fault of their own. The pandemic has reinforced that lesson.

The failure of Australia’s labour market to provide full employment is evident from high and increasing levels of underemployment, particularly among young people. Even before the the pandemic an unacceptably high proportion of workers struggled with stringing together part-time “gigs”.

Newstart is not enough

Returning to the poverty levels of the former Newstart allowance as Jobkeeper winds down is a terrible option. We should restore parity between unemployment benefits and other social security benefits such as the age pension.

Until the 1990s these benefits were roughly equal in value. Since then the age pension and similar benefits have been increased in line with average earnings. Unemployment benefits, however, have been frozen in real terms since 1994.

Compounding the increasing financial hardship, life for the unemployed has been made harder by the steady intensification of compliance and reporting requirements.

While the controversial “robodebt” scheme – in which many welfare recipients were hounded to repay money they did not owe – has been abandoned, more fundamental change is needed.

Read more: Robodebt was a policy fiasco with a human cost we have yet to fully appreciate

A liveable income guarantee

In an economy that cannot provide full-time work for everyone who wants it, we need to take a broader view of the way people can contribute.

To respond to the post-pandemic era, we should adopt the concept of a Liveable Income Guarantee (LIG).

The LIG is closely linked to the “participation income” proposed by British economist Anthony Atkinson. It starts from the principle that everyone has a right to a liveable income and the opportunity to contribute to society. It’s similar to a universal basic income but requires recipients to participate in socially useful activities.

The narrow measure of “formal employment” largely obscures the fact that many people without paid work productively contribute to society in other ways.

Unpaid work of parents, carers and volunteers has been estimated as equal to almost half of Australia’s GDP.

While the contributions of carers has been partly recognised through the Carer’s Payment, other forms of unpaid work have not.

Read more: Meet the Liveable Income Guarantee: a budget-ready proposal that would prevent unemployment benefits falling off a cliff

What other contributions might be acknowledged under the LIG? There are many possibilities, most of which have some precedent but have not been considered as part of a comprehensive program of social participation, including volunteering, ecological care projects and artistic and creative activity.

As the year of JobSeeker and JobKeeper draws to a close, it’s time for the Morrison government to show some of the same boldness and imagination it had a year ago.

– ref. The economy can’t guarantee a job. It can guarantee a liveable income for other work – https://theconversation.com/the-economy-cant-guarantee-a-job-it-can-guarantee-a-liveable-income-for-other-work-153444

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Cowling, Associate Professor – Information & Communication Technology (ICT), CQUniversity Australia

We’ve probably all been there. We buy some new smart gadget and when we plug it in for the first time it requires an update to work.

So we end up spending hours downloading and updating before we can even play with our new toy.

But what happens when we can’t update our gadgets any further?

Vintage technology

Every year vendors such as Apple and Google add to their list of vintage devices that no longer get operating system or security updates.

For example, owners of the Pixel 2 smartphone (released by Google in 2017) were told in late 2020 they would no longer receive regular scheduled system updates and security updates.

Upgrading to Google’s newest smartphones won’t insulate them from this problem for long. Owners of the latest Pixel 5 are told to expect this device (released in October 2020) to be made vintage in 2023.

Read more: Apple’s iPhone 12 comes without a charger: a smart waste-reduction move, or clever cash grab?

While Apple has a reputation for supporting devices for longer than Google and Samsung with Android, even Apple owners are occasionally in for a shock, such as those users who bought the Apple Watch SE or Apple Watch 3 late last year only to discover it only works with an iPhone 6s or above.

Even if an operating system vendor still supports a device, this presumes the apps and network connections will still work for older devices, which is not always the case.

The unrelenting march of technology

Technology is not what it used to be. Twenty years ago, we could buy a laptop and everything would work pretty much the same for over a decade.

For example, switch on an old Windows XP machine (no longer supported by Microsoft) and any installed Word and Excel software will be there just as we left them, still available for your document and spreadsheeting needs. (We need to be careful about updating any software as then it might not work on the XP machine.)

If we want to play some old computer games, there’s an argument that an old machine or operating system will be a better choice to play on as a newer machine will run the game too fast, or be incompatible and not run it at all.

But the world of technology has changed in the last ten years or so. More and more apps need a network connection to operate, or take advantage of new features in the software or hardware that didn’t previously exist such as augmented reality (AR), so they need a new device to work.

Cables, chips and wireless networks

Even on the hardware front, there are concerns. Try and attach our old fitness band to our new smartphone and we might find the Bluetooth protocol it uses to communicate is no longer supported, or the servers they used to run were attacked and taken down by hackers.

Backers of the original smartwatch, The Pebble, found themselves on the wrong end of this situation when the company was bought by Fitbit, who decided to shut down the Pebble servers. This effectively turned all Pebble watches into paperweights, although an unofficial fix was developed.

Assuming the hardware works, we might find the network connection deserts us.

The WiFi Alliance last year announced a new WiFi standard, increasing speeds for countries that support it.

But it’s already the case that older WiFi devices running on older standards can have trouble connecting to new networks, and even if they can they are likely to slow down the whole network.

In the world of cellular networking, some parts of the old 3G network (famous for powering the iPhone 3G released a little more than ten years ago) has been shut down in some countries (including Australia), with the whole service destined for the dustbin in several years. Even if we could power up that old iPhone, it wouldn’t get any phone service.

A call for sustainable technology

So what’s the solution to this problem of disposable and expiring technology? One suggestion is that manufacturers move to making devices more modular, comprised of several detachable components.

Components could then be replaced as they expire, just like we are able to do with desktop computers by replacing the video card, sound card or other components.

Some manufacturers, such as Essential, Motorola and Google have all tried this approach with a modular phone but with limited success.

The modularisation process results in a larger, more cumbersome device in a world where thin and svelte is everything.

Read more: Introducing Edna: the chatbot trained to help patients make a difficult medical decision

Perhaps the best we can hope for is for manufacturers to work harder to recycle and upgrade devices for consumers. Companies such as Apple already do this, with machines that can disassemble iPhones and remove the precious metals and components for recycling, but more work needs to be done.

In particular, the commercial aspect of these initiatives likely still needs to be worked out. Some service providers offer trade-in in deals for old phones but you still have to pay for a new phone. Many people aim to use older devices to avoid paying for a new device after all.

Until manufacturers are willing to perhaps just do a straight swap of that old gadget for a new model with no money down, it’s likely we will still live in our expiring device culture for a while yet.

– ref. Upgrade rage: why you may have to buy a new device whether you want to or not – https://theconversation.com/upgrade-rage-why-you-may-have-to-buy-a-new-device-whether-you-want-to-or-not-153105

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tony Walker, Vice-chancellor’s fellow, La Trobe University

The new trade minister, Dan Tehan, has been handed one of the Morrison government’s most demanding roles. Despite a lot of chest-thumping in government circles about the need to stand up to “Chinese bullying”, Tehan’s task will be to find a way to restore a constructive trading partnership with China in the national interest.

Beijing’s trade reprisals for perceived political slights should not be countenanced. However, there is no useful purpose in overreacting to China’s bad behaviour.

The business community, which has been alarmed by a deterioration in the China relationship, will watch Tehan carefully as he outlines his ideas for engagement.

He will need to navigate the treacherous terrain between trade and geopolitics, which will not be easy given the countervailing forces at work within the Morrison government. These are driving decisions to lower the curtain on significant Chinese investments in the Australian economy.

Read more: Timeline of a broken relationship: how China and Australia went from chilly to barely speaking

A series of rejected deals involving China

Tehan, who has a background in trade diplomacy as a former diplomat, will hold his first press conference as trade minister this week to address some of the challenges he will face in his new role.

He could do worse than to use the occasion to reinforce the point that Australia has no interest in confrontation with China on the trade and investment front. However, his task has been complicated by investment decisions taken recently by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg.

Last year, Frydenberg overrode advice from the Foreign Investment Review Board and Treasury when he blocked Hong Kong-listed Mengniu Dairy from taking over Lion Dairy and Drinks, then owned by Japan’s Kirin. Bega Cheese purchased the company in November.

Read more: Taking China to the World Trade Organisation plants a seed. It won’t be a quick or easy win

Last week, it emerged Frydenberg had also stymied China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCE) from taking over the South-African-owned and Australian-based building contractor Probuild.

Both decisions were taken on national security grounds. In the case of Probuild, Frydenberg had concerns about CSCE’s links with the Chinese defence industry. The treasurer has not advanced specific reasons for his decisions.

This lack of transparency in the Morrison government’s foreign investment decision-making attracted the negative attention of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) last year in its trade policy review of Australia. The WTO found Australia had tightened the national interest criteria for foreign investment decisions in a “non-transparent manner”. It also said Australia had applied

wide grounds for the screening of foreign investment that went beyond national security.

Tehan needs a game plan for China

Unhelpfully for Tehan, who is intent on restoring a working relationship with his Chinese counterparts, the Mengniu and Probuild decisions have been represented in the Australian media as a blanket repudiation of Chinese investment.

This is not the whole story, since dozens of smaller Chinese investments have been approved over the past several years. However, it is certainly the case that larger eye-catching investments have been blocked.

Apart from the Mengniu and Probuild examples, the Hong Kong-based CK Group’s $13 billion bid for the pipeline operator APA Group was similarly rejected by Frydenberg in 2018 on security grounds.

In November, at The Australian newspaper’s annual Strategic Forum, Frydenberg said Australia wanted a “respectful and beneficial” dialogue with Beijing, but his banning of the Mengniu and Probuild deals have sent mixed messages to China.

China’s embassy in Canberra was quick to criticise the Probuild decision, saying in a statement,

Weaponising the concept of national security to block Chinese investment is detrimental to mutual trust, as well as bilateral economic and trade relations.

What Tehan needs most of all is a game plan for his dealings with China.

These upcoming events in the global trade calendar might provide an opportunity for a resumption of a dialogue with Chinese officials if the meetings aren’t cancelled or conducted virtually due to the pandemic.

In all of this, it should be noted, Australia and China have not severed formal trade ties. The two countries have a free trade agreement in place. This came into force in 2015 and was due for a five-year review last month, though this did not occur given the current tensions.

Canberra and Beijing are also signatories to what has been called the world’s largest free trade agreement. This is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which comprises 14 countries regionally and 30% of global GDP. The RCEP is set to come into force this year.

Trade diversification is not a real option

Apart from seeking opportunities for dialogue with Beijing, Tehan will also have to contend with unrealistic talk among colleagues about the need for Australia to diversify its markets. Diversification is desirable, but the constraints are real.

In a piece for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, economic writer David Uren outlined the implications of the diversification argument.

Put simply, Australia has an asymmetrical trading relationship with China and its dependence on the Chinese market is virtually irreplaceable for the foreseeable future.

For example, Australia could not find alternative markets for the 800 million tonnes of iron ore it shipped to China last year. The total seaborne market for iron ore in the rest of the world is only 460 million tonnes, of which Australia already accounts for 100 million tonnes.

Australia also currently ships 100% of its nickel ore to China, and finding a replacement market for this commodity would likewise be difficult.

In the case of services, China accounts for 31% of Australia’s education exports, or A$12.7 billion. Chinese students represent more than our next four largest foreign markets combined.

At the same time, Uren writes, Australia absorbs less than 2% of Chinese exports worldwide.

Statements such as those by Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack that “we need China as much as China needs us” are not supported by the facts.

Read more: China enters 2021 a stronger, more influential power — and Australia may feel the squeeze even more

China’s economic importance to Australia can’t be overstated. Australian Bureau of Statistics numbers for financial year 2019-20 show the value of merchandise exports to the Chinese market totalled $150 billion, or three times that of the next largest export destination, Japan.

In that 12-month period, 39% of the dollar value of all goods exported by Australia went to China. This was up in percentage terms on the previous year.

However, the ABS numbers also underscore the uncomfortable detail that if it had not been for rocketing iron ore prices and thus an unhealthy dependence on a single commodity, overall Australia-China trade would have been down.

Reliance on iron ore and a drop in exports of other commodities on China’s list of sanctions and tariffs adds to pressures on the Australian government and its trade minister to get the trading relationship back on track.

An improving US-China relationship should help

The inauguration this week of President-elect Joe Biden in the US will restore a level of certainty in relations between Washington and Beijing.

Tensions on a whole range of issues, from China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea to its abuses of its Uyghur population to its flouting of agreements over Hong Kong’s autonomy, will persist. However, the arbitrariness of the Donald Trump years will recede.

This should provide opportunities for Australia to re-calibrate its own relationship with China. Canberra’s ties to an unpredictable Trump administration have been a drag on its ability to define a role for itself with China that is separate from the US.

Australia’s China relationship may be in crisis. However, in what may prove to be a more stable environment, it’s worth keeping in mind the Chinese word for crisis can also mean opportunity.

– ref. Dan Tehan’s daunting new role: restoring trade with China in a hostile political environment – https://theconversation.com/dan-tehans-daunting-new-role-restoring-trade-with-china-in-a-hostile-political-environment-153446

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Philip Weinstein, Professorial Research Fellow, University of Adelaide

There’s no question the rising rate of unemployment is one of the worst consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of Australians seeking work is heading towards 10%, almost double the pre-pandemic Australian average of just over 5%.

It’s well established that unemployment is associated with adverse health outcomes, but those who keep their jobs aren’t likely to emerge from the pandemic unscathed in terms of their occupational health either.

Read more: Unemployment is hitting youth hard: this is what we should do

In fact, employees working under pandemic conditions are likely to be exposed to increased effort and reduced rewards, caused or exacerbated by their new circumstances amid the pandemic. This is known as “effort-reward imbalance” and it may lead to a range of stress-related diseases. While effort-reward imbalance is not a new concept, it’s particularly relevant during this pandemic.

What is effort-reward imbalance?

An effort-reward imbalance occurs when an employee feels the effort they’re putting into their work exceeds the rewards they receive in return.

Research suggests workers who experience effort-reward imbalance are at a higher risk of depression, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and musculoskeletal disorders, all of which can be exacerbated by the the release of cortisol and other stress-related hormones. These conditions are among the leading causes of death and disability globally.

Read more: COVID-19 is a disaster for mothers’ employment. And no, working from home is not the solution

Working harder…

During pandemic conditions workers are likely to exert more effort than they would under normal conditions. Cutbacks and job losses can mean remaining employees have to pick up additional duties.

Another potential source of increased effort is working from home, where workers may be managing distractions such as homeschooling children. They also might not have adequate facilities to perform optimally.

…for less reward

All these factors can tip the balance of effort-reward imbalance unfavourably by forcing employees to work harder. And to make matters worse, rewards may also decrease during the pandemic, due to financial uncertainty. We’ve heard many reports of people’s pay, promotion opportunities and job security being reduced.

Even when rewards are reduced with the same level of effort, the balance can be tipped, resulting in effort-reward imbalance and its associated health consequences.

Read more: Get a proper chair, don’t eat at your desk, and no phones in the loo – how to keep your home workspace safe and hygienic

Why don’t employees just leave?

Effort-reward imbalance is likely to be sustained when workers choose not to leave their jobs. They may decide to stay, despite effort-reward imbalance, because they’re being strategic or CV building, have a tendency to over commit to their work, or feel they have no choice but to hold on to their job.

Given that alternative job opportunities are limited in the current economic climate, some people may choose to stay at work despite an effort-reward imbalance. This can lead to sustained effort-reward imbalance, increasing the risk of their health deteriorating as a result.

What can workplaces do?

Many of the strategies typically employed to manage effort-reward imbalance might not be possible during the pandemic. For example, a business might not be able to afford pay rises. But even simple things like praising and thanking staff (a part of reward) may help.

It may also be helpful for employers to work with employees to establish which additional duties they would like to do. These may be the ones they find easy, enjoy or jobs that might help to better position them for other work opportunities in the future. This can reduce the risk of employees being swamped with tasks beyond their skill set, lessening effort-reward imbalance.

Read more: Mapping COVID-19 spread in Melbourne shows link to job types and ability to stay home

Comments in and out of the workplace such as “you’re lucky to have a job” trivialise employees’ stress, creating barriers to workers freely discussing work challenges. This challenge may extend beyond work to include the worker’s broader support networks, such as family and friends, too.

For this reason, both workplaces and support networks have an important role to play in promoting open communication about work-related stress. To encourage this, workplaces may offer free counselling services.

What next?

The impact of the pandemic on effort-reward imbalance may extend beyond the pandemic itself as global economies will probably take considerable time to recover. It may be several years before pre-COVID work effort and reward balance is re-established, and job opportunities improve. For this reason, we need to be prepared for these more subtle, longer-term health impacts of the pandemic.

COVID-19 is not likely to be our last pandemic, nor the last financial strain on global or local economies. So we must use this as an opportunity to establish strategies to promote workers’ health during troubled times.

Read more: Forget work-life balance – it’s all about integration in the age of COVID-19

– ref. Do you feel undervalued and overworked? COVID-19 is likely to affect the employed too – https://theconversation.com/do-you-feel-undervalued-and-overworked-covid-19-is-likely-to-affect-the-employed-too-143461

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Munro, Professor, Faculty of Education and Arts, Australian Catholic University

Research during the first phase of remote teaching in Victoria reported some students found the workload “too high”, missed interactions with peers, felt their thinking ability was impaired, and reported a difficulty coping with study and life more generally.

All these factors impact on students’ sense of well-being. While learning remotely, some children experienced heightened anxiety, stress and other emotional reactions such as depression.

These reactions are not always a response to the teaching itself. Generally, schools and teachers took care to prepare relevant, appropriate learning and teaching materials. Issues like a lack of focus and heightened anxiety could also be the result of a difficulty learning in an alternative setting.

These issues are consistent with students lacking the autobiographical episodic memory needed to guide successful learning in the remote context. Their autobiographic memory, which contains the association that school is a place of learning, may not apply to the home. However, we can train it to.

What is autobiographical memory?

Our autobiographical episodic memory is the brain’s record of our experiences. It includes what we’ve done, the contexts in which we did it and how we did it. It also contains the feelings we link with events and how motivated we were.

We use this memory continually in our lives. It tells us what to expect when we go into a new bar or coffee shop for the first time, how to cope when an appliance at home breaks down and how to organise ourselves in a social interaction.

Students who have attended school have an autobiographical episodic memory of what happens in a classroom. Their experiences include interacting with peers, responding to directions from their teachers about how to direct their learning activity, following routines and schedules such as doing particular activities at specific times, and behaving in particular ways.

Read more: We’re capable of infinite memory, but where in the brain is it stored, and what parts help retrieve it?

The experiences also include a range of signals, supports and interactions such as the body language, eye contact, and speaking tones used by teachers and peers — as well as the overall classroom atmosphere.

These experiences are stored in students’ autobiographical episodic memory. They are recalled whenever the student is in the classroom context and direct and focus the learning activity. They operate in addition to, and in parallel with, the the actual teaching and the content.

Students also have stored, in their episodic memory, their experiences at home. This is their record of how they live with their family, what to do and how to behave acceptably at home, how to be organised in the home, how to get around obstacles and solve problems in the home situation and also what to expect.

During the period of remote learning, students, for the large part, had teaching materials prepared for them. But many still needed the systems and supports provided in the classroom context. These students knew what was missing but were likely unable to compensate for it by spontaneously adapting their episodic memory to match the changed context.

Other students found remote teaching a valuable experience. It’s possible these students had more adaptable episodic memories at home. They likely valued being able to self-organise and manage their learning schedules. They may have enjoyed having the opportunity to plan their day and work at their own pace.

Read more: Studying for exams? Here’s how to make your memory work for you

We don’t know for sure the differences between the learning profiles of those who were and weren’t able to adapt to the changed context; but we can assume episodic memory could play a part in the different experiences students had.

So, why does this matter?

Teachers and schools have put a lot of work into designing teaching and learning materials students could use in their homes. Students’ reports suggest these materials weren’t adequate for all students to adapt their classroom experiences to fit the home environment.

As a result, many students would not have formed positive or successful episodic memories of learning at home.

The current phase of remote teaching has come to an end for Australia. However, we may see more students studying from home periodically, as schools shut due to outbreaks in the future. Or it could be necessary in Australia in the event of a third wave.

Remote teaching could help students build the episodic memory they need for remote learning. Teachers can do this by helping students recognise the learning supports in the classroom and form matching ones in the home. It is also useful to put in place the conditions for successful learning experiences at home.

Here are some ways they could do this:

Teachers can guide students to recognise what helps them learn in the classroom. They can do this by

• becoming aware of supports such as having regular designated times for doing particular activities

• having a learning task broken into smaller steps

• avoiding distractors or working on a task to completion.

They can then ask the students to suggest how they could have matching supports in their home context. For example, they can encourage students to

• prepare a study schedule

• break a task into small steps and work on each

• identify possible distractors at home and suggest how they can manage them.

When starting a task remotely, teachers can ask students to recall how they did similar activities in the classroom. Students can learn to ask themselves: How did I do similar tasks in the past? What will the outcome look like? What will I do first and then second and last? This could help students transfer their classroom experiences to their home.

Students often have more successful home learning experiences when they have been taught to monitor their progress as they work through a task. These experiences add to their episodic memory. Teachers can encourage them to say what they know now that they didn’t know earlier.

Read more: Children with autism may use memory differently. Understanding this could help us teach them

Experiences that record what happened in a certain place and time are stored in images. When given a learning task during remote teaching, students can also be encouraged to visualise how they will complete it.

For example, if they need to write a paragraph about a character in a novel, the teacher can ask students to visualise the character in particular contexts, recall words that describe the character’s attributes, compose sentences about them and organise their understanding around main ideas. This gives students a “virtual experience” of the learning activity that includes a pathway to task completion.

Many students will, from now on, need to have the ability to learn remotely. This is even true independent of COVID, and applies to studying for exams at home or doing homework. Teachers and parents should be sensitive to the fact autobiographic episodic memory has a role to play in successful learning.

– ref. To learn at home, kids need more than just teaching materials. Their brain must also adapt to the context – https://theconversation.com/to-learn-at-home-kids-need-more-than-just-teaching-materials-their-brain-must-also-adapt-to-the-context-149823

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Keating, Visiting Fellow, College of Business & Economics, Australian National University

It is tempting to think the Australian government’s decision to spend big – bigger than ever before, an unprecedented 33% of GDP this financial year according to the budget update – marks an embrace of Keynesian economics after decades in which Australian authorities have looked the other way.

Keynesian economics – named after its founder, 20th century economist John Maynard Keynes – holds that when private spending is too weak to keep people in jobs the government should ramp up its own spending to fill the gap.

Conversely, when private spending is too strong, and pushing up inflation, the government should rein in its own spending to rein in inflation.

Taxes are the other side of the coin. When private spending is weak the government should cut taxes; when private spending is too strong it should push taxes up.

This will mean budget deficits when the private sector isn’t keen to spend (low demand) and surpluses to restrain spending when the private sector is too keen.

Other things can help, such as ensuring wages grow quickly enough to boost private demand and ensuring incomes are distributed evenly enough to allow this to happen broadly.

Read more: Memories. In 1961 Labor promised to boost the deficit to fight unemployment. The promise won

That’s pretty much how Australian governments of all types acted from the end of the World War II up until the mid-1970s, when a surge in the price of oil produced a combination of inflation and unemployment (“stagflation”) that Keynesian economics couldn’t easily explain.

In its place came a new orthodoxy in which governments tried to rely mainly on so-called monetary authorities, such as the Reserve Bank, to stabilise the economy and kept budget deficits low.

The past year’s dramatic switch back – a projected budget deficit of 9.9% of GDP, the biggest since World War II – has led many, including commentator Ross Gittins, to conclude Keynesian economics is back in favour with authorities because (most of the time) it works.

It’s an idea summed up in the subtitle of a book released 12 years ago after the global financial crisis – Keynes: The Return of the Master.

I’m more skeptical. Here’s why.

Not Keynesian yet

The reality is that with interest rates at rock bottom as we went into the coronavirus crisis, there was little the Reserve Bank could do to support the economy by cutting interest rates further.

It could, and did, buy government bonds. But that tends to support asset prices rather than employment. So the authorities have had little choice but to spend to support jobs, notwithstanding their qualms.

Read more: Big budget spending isn’t new: it’s a return to what worked before

They are, however, giving every sign of still being guided by the growth model they’ve been relying on since the mid-1970s.

That model assumes the medium-term growth path of the economy is determined by the rates of increase in the three Ps: population; participation in employment; and productivity.

MYEFO’s unkeynesian underpinning

This was exactly the model used to draw up the projections in December’s Mid-Year Financial and Economic Outlook. These have potential economic growth “gradually returning to 2.75% towards the end of the medium-term projection period” in 2023-24.

The projection is unchanged on the one published the previous year before the pandemic and recession.

The document assumes underlying productivity growth will “converge over a 10-year period to the average growth rate in labour productivity over the past 30 years of 1.5% per annum”. This takes no account of the more recent experience of the five years leading up to the recession, when productivity growth and real wage growth averaged only 0.7%.

That’s half the rate of productivity growth projected by the federal treasury. Yet there’s not a word of explanation in the document, despite Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying the official advice was “if we thought we could just grow the economy under the old settings then we need to think again”.

To Keynesians, the distribution of income matters

Keynesian economists, and “post-Keynesian” economists carrying forward the mantle, don’t believe medium-term economic growth is determined solely by “three Ps” that specify what can be supplied to the economy.

They believe it is also determined by what is demanded of the economy, creating an important role for changes both in the distribution of wages and in the proportion of national income distributed to wages.

Australia experienced dramatic increases in wage income inequality in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s.

Read more: From here on our recovery will need more than fiscal policy, it’ll need redistribution

For the past half decade the proportion of national income devoted to profits has been climbing while the proportion devoted to wages has been falling.

If the people who drew up the mid-year statement had really become Keynesian they would have acknowledged the structural changes affecting income distribution and produced less encouraging growth forecasts.

Weak wage growth condemns us to weak economic growth

A government that had fully adopted Keynesian policies would recognise it needs to support reasonable wage increases, rather than push for wage freezes as it has been doing, noting the short-run alternative is continued budget deficits.

Over time the weakness in demand is likely to lead to lower investment, slowing the take-up of new technology and slowing growth in productivity.

In accordance with the models the government does use, this will cut Australia’s potential rate of economic growth, producing lower unemployment and lower living standards than we otherwise would have had.

– ref. Despite appearances, this government isn’t really Keynesian, as its budget update shows – https://theconversation.com/despite-appearances-this-government-isnt-really-keynesian-as-its-budget-update-shows-152579

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Maguire-Rosier, Honorary Associate, Department of Theatre and Performance Studies, School of Literature, Art, and Media, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, University of Sydney

Review: Humans 2.0, directed by Yaron Lifschitz, Circa at Sydney Festival

The black circular stage is lit by small towers of side-lights. Lights fade to black before suddenly revealing ten humans. The haste of this image elicits gasps. Each body is frozen in a parallel plank position, twisted with one armpit raised towards the crowd. Another blackout. The bright light returns: a soft strobe pulsing in tempo with the bodies, twisting in and out.

Circa’s Humans 2.0 is mesmerising.

The show is divided into several movements, each with a different mood and combination of thrills, taking the audience through a series of breathtaking feats. Created and directed by Yaron Lifschitz, the work is presented as a sequel to the company’s 2017 show Humans, the updated title gestures towards the superhuman capabilities of the cast.

Energetic, original music by Ori Lichtik and superb lighting by Paul Jackson complement Lifschitz’s spellbinding physical drama, with just the right amount of play, death-defying tricks and whimsical imagery to make for the refined new circus the Brisbane-based company aspires to.

Arrested by poetic movement

Bodies flock together and move as one engine.

A woman hangs on silks enacting staccato, looping movement, like a spider spinning its web.

Performers lie on their backs, arms outstretched, holding the feet of other performers in the palms of their hands. As their elevated partners move in slow motion, each floor-bound human assists by rolling onto their stomach, never losing sight of their glorified marionettes. This poetic movement is arresting.

I hear a spectator whispering emphatically to her next-door neighbour: “Do you know how much strength that would take?”

A red wash illuminates the stage. A muffled techno rhythm, with a catchy country guitar and a base drumbeat, infects the performers with seemingly involuntary pelvic movement. Hans Christian Andersen’s fairytale, The Red Shoes comes to mind: a story of seduction and conditional mercy where a girl is forced to dance.

A man holds a woman sideways like a rockstar holding his guitar and strums imaginary strings. Such physical jokes remind me of the French choreographer Philippe Decouflé’s goofy Le P’tit Bal. I see invisible hula hoops around every dancer.

For esteemed circus theorist Paul Bouissac, “circus is a language”. This scene fills my senses with European dialects of physical theatre and dance: these performers take a break from the dynamic tricks typical of Australian circus to poke fun at themselves, and their craft.

The performers turn upside down. Here, the work (and the audience) is given a chance to breathe. A performer uses a handstand cane and a fellow performer’s head to bear her weight as she dances with her legs above her.

A spectacular leap opens the final act. The cast flip and soar through the air. Some slapstick comedy ensues when the acrobats intentionally miss catching each other.

Beautiful physical exhaustion

What strikes me as most significant in Humans 2.0 is the carefully crafted dramaturgy of movement. A lot of attention is given to the quality of a step, gesture or touch. The clear intentions behind every action endows the work with a satisfying depth, especially visually.

The performance lacks an intellectual level of engagement, but perhaps this is not its intention. As Lifschitz indicates, he is more preoccupied with an exploration of extreme human biomechanics rather than expressing a nuanced narrative. Lifschitz understands the effect physical theatre can have on the viewer, leaving the audience utterly exhausted and in awe.

Drawing on seminal phenomenologist Maurice Merleau-Ponty, performance scholar Peta Tait writes: “I watch aerialists with attention that jumps and flickers, but which shatters and splinters in the attempt to describe them”.

In the aftermath of each feat, I, too, feel at a loss for words. But I feel as if I am experiencing the physicality in my own body. I sense other spectators feel the same.

Such an ineffable response is not without reason. Tait goes on to argue circus is received by spectators viscerally. She says: “a spectator will ‘catch’ the aerial body with his or her senses in mimicry of flying […] In this visceral catching, motion and emotion converge”.

As a woman slides down a human pyramid clinging to one body after another, like a treehugger around a trunk, I wonder at once about the technique it requires, and the emotionally-charged relationships the image sets forth.

Humans 2.0 is a seriously sensational spectacle: as aesthetic as it is athletic, as comedic as it is grave, and all in all, a visceral delight.

Humans 2.0 is at Carriageworks for Sydney Festival until January 21.

– ref. Sydney Festival review: Circa’s Humans 2.0 is a visceral delight – https://theconversation.com/sydney-festival-review-circas-humans-2-0-is-a-visceral-delight-152008

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Culum Brown, Professor, Macquarie University

How do gills work? Tully, aged 7

Great question, Tully! Animals on land breathe air, which is made up of different gasses. Oxygen is one of these gases, and is made by plants (hug a plant today and say thanks). All animals need to breathe in oxygen to survive.

When the air goes into our lungs, oxygen goes into our blood and is delivered all around the body. Air is light, so it’s easy to move around. This makes it pretty easy to breathe air back and forth — a bit like blowing up balloons and letting them deflate.

Read more: Curious Kids: have people ever seen a colossal squid?

Things are different for fish. Fishes also need oxygen, but rather than getting it from air, they have to get it from water.

But there is less oxygen available in water than air. And to make matters worse for the poor fishes, water is thicker than air, so it takes much more work to move it around. This makes the problem of getting that oxygen in the fishes’ body even harder.

This is why fish need gills

Rather than breathing in and out through the mouth, fish use a one-way system, passing water in one direction over their gills.

Water goes in the mouth, across the gills and out through the opercula (the bony covering protecting their gills).

But gills and lungs are more similar than you might think. Both have really big surface areas which increases the amount of water or air that touches the gill or lung tissue, and so increases the amount of oxygen available.

What’s more, the walls of the lungs and gills are very thin and loaded with tiny tubes that transport blood (called “capillaries”).

This means the capillaries come into close contact with the air or water outside, letting oxygen pass across the thin walls and into the blood. At the same time, carbon dioxide, which is a waste product from our bodies, passes out.

Gills are also important for controlling how much salt is in the body, but let’s leave that story for another day.

Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to curiouskids@theconversation.edu.au

Read more: Curious Kids: when fish get thirsty do they drink sea water?

– ref. Curious kids: how do gills work? – https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-how-do-gills-work-150375

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Pearson, Professor of Journalism and Social Media, Griffith Centre for Social and Cultural Research, Griffith University, Griffith University

The blame for the recent assault on the US Capitol and President Donald Trump’s broader dismantling of democratic institutions and norms can be laid at least partly on misinformation and conspiracy theories.

Those who spread misinformation, like Trump himself, are exploiting people’s lack of media literacy — it’s easy to spread lies to people who are prone to believe what they read online without questioning it.

We are living in a dangerous age where the internet makes it possible to spread misinformation far and wide and most people lack the basic fact-checking abilities to discern fact from fiction — or, worse, the desire to develop a healthy skepticism at all.

Read more: Stopping the spread of COVID-19 misinformation is the best 2021 New Year’s resolution

Journalists are trained in this sort of thing — that is, the responsible ones who are trying to counter misinformation with truth.

Here are five fundamental lessons from Journalism 101 that all citizens can learn to improve their media literacy and fact-checking skills:

1. Distinguishing verified facts from myths, rumours and opinions

Cold, hard facts are the building blocks for considered and reasonable opinions in politics, media and law.

And there are no such things as “alternative facts” — facts are facts. Just because a falsity has been repeated many times by important people and their affiliates does not make it true.

We cannot expect the average citizen to have the skills of an academic researcher, journalist or judge in determining the veracity of an asserted statement. However, we can teach people some basic strategies before they mistake mere assertions for actual facts.

Does a basic internet search show these assertions have been confirmed by usually reliable sources – such as non-partisan mainstream news organisations, government websites and expert academics?

Students are taught to look to the URL of more authoritative sites — such as .gov or .edu — as a good hint at the factual basis of an assertion.

Searches and hashtags in social media are much less reliable as verification tools because you could be fishing within the “bubble” (or “echo chamber”) of those who share common interests, fears and prejudices – and are more likely to be perpetuating myths and rumours.

2. Mixing up your media and social media diet

We need to be break out of our own “echo chambers” and our tendencies to access only the news and views of those who agree with us, on the topics that interest us and where we feel most comfortable.

For example, over much of the past five years, I have deliberately switched between various conservative and liberal media outlets when something important has happened in the US.

By looking at the coverage of the left- and right-wing media, I can hope to find a common set of facts both sides agree on — beyond the partisan rhetoric and spin. And if only one side is reporting something, I know to question this assertion and not just take it at face value.

3. Being skeptical and assessing the factual premise of an opinion

Journalism students learn to approach the claims of their sources with a “healthy skepticism”. For instance, if you are interviewing someone and they make what seems to be a bold or questionable claim, it’s good practice to pause and ask what facts the claim is based on.

Students are taught in media law this is the key to the fair comment defence to a defamation action. This permits us to publish defamatory opinions on matters of public interest as long as they are reasonably based on provable facts put forth by the publication.

The ABC’s Media Watch used this defence successfully (at trial and on appeal) when it criticised a Sydney Sun-Herald journalist’s reporting that claimed toxic materials had been found near a children’s playground.

This assessment of the factual basis of an opinion is not reserved for defamation lawyers – it is an exercise we can all undertake as we decide whether someone’s opinion deserves our serious attention and republication.

Read more: Teaching children digital literacy skills helps them navigate and respond to misinformation

4. Exploring the background and motives of media and sources

A key skill in media literacy is the ability to look behind the veil of those who want our attention — media outlets, social media influencers and bloggers — to investigate their allegiances, sponsorships and business models.

For instance, these are some key questions to ask:

• who is behind that think tank whose views you are retweeting?

• who owns the online newspaper you read and what other commercial interests do they hold?

• is your media diet dominated by news produced from the same corporate entity?

• why does someone need to be so loud or insulting in their commentary; is this indicative of their neglect of important facts that might counter their view?

• what might an individual or company have to gain or lose by taking a position on an issue, and how might that influence their opinion?

Just because someone has an agenda does not mean their facts are wrong — but it is a good reason to be even more skeptical in your verification processes.

Read more: Why is it so hard to stop COVID-19 misinformation spreading on social media?

5. Reflecting and verifying before sharing

We live in an era of instant republication. We immediately retweet and share content we see on social media, often without even having read it thoroughly, let alone having fact-checked it.

Mindful reflection before pressing that sharing button would allow you to ask yourself, “Why am I even choosing to share this material?”

You could also help shore up democracy by engaging in the fact-checking processes mentioned above to avoid being part of the problem by spreading misinformation.

– ref. There’s no such thing as ‘alternative facts’. 5 ways to spot misinformation and stop sharing it online – https://theconversation.com/theres-no-such-thing-as-alternative-facts-5-ways-to-spot-misinformation-and-stop-sharing-it-online-152894

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Tuffley, Senior Lecturer in Applied Ethics & CyberSecurity, Griffith University

It could be argued artificial intelligence (AI) is already the indispensable tool of the 21st century. From helping doctors diagnose and treat patients to rapidly advancing new drug discoveries, it’s our trusted partner in so many ways.

Now it has found its way into the once exclusively-human domain of love and relationships. With AI-systems as matchmakers, in the coming decades it may become common to date a personalised avatar.

This was explored in the 2014 movie “Her”, in which a writer living in near-future Los Angeles develops affection for an AI system. The sci-fi film won an Academy Award for depicting what seemed like a highly unconventional love story.

In reality, we’ve already started down this road.

Delving into the human psyche

The online dating industrty is worth more than US$4 billion and there are a growing number of players in this market. Dominating it is the Match Group, which owns OkCupid, Match, Tinder and 45 other dating-related businesses.

Match and its competitors have accumulated a rich trove of personal data, which AI can analyse to predict how we choose partners.

The industry is majorly embracing AI. For instance, Match has an AI-enabled chatbot named “Lara” who guides people through the process of romance, offering suggestions based on up to 50 personal factors.

Tinder co-founder and CEO Sean Rad outlines his vision of AI being a simplifier: a smart filter that serves up what it knows a person is interested in.

Dating website eHarmony has used AI that analyses people’s chat and sends suggestions about how to make the next move. Happn uses AI to “rank” profiles to show those it predicts the user might prefer.

Loveflutter’s AI takes the guesswork out of moving the relationship along, such as by suggesting a restaurant both parties could visit. And Badoo uses facial recognition to suggest a partner that may look like a celebrity crush.

Dating platforms are using AI to analyse all the finer details. From the results, they can identify a greater number of potential matches for a user.

They could also potentially examine a person’s public posts on social media websites such as Facebook, Twitter and Instagram to get a sense of their attitudes and interests.

This would circumvent bias in how people represent themselves on matchmaking questionnaires. Research has shown inaccuracies in self-reported attributes are the main reason online dating isn’t successful.

While the sheer amount of data on the web is too much for a person to process, it’s all grist to the mill for a smart matchmaking AI.

Read more: Looking for love on a dating app? You might be falling for a ghost

Shovelling your data into the dating sandbox

As more user data is generated on the internet (especially on social media), AI will be able to make increasingly accurate predictions. Big players such as Match.com would be well-placed for this as they already have access to large pools of data.

And where there is AI there will often be its technological sibling, virtual reality (VR). As both evolve simultaneously, we’ll likely see versions of VR in which would-be daters can “practice” in simulated environments to avoid slipping up on a real date.

This isn’t a far stretch considering “virtual girlfriends”, which are supposed to help people practice dating, have already existed for some years and are maturing as a technology. A growing number of offerings point to a significant degree of interest in them.

With enough user data, future AI could eventually create a fully-customised partner for you in virtual reality – one that checks all your “boxes”. Controversially, the next step would be to experience an avatar as a physical entity.

It could inhabit a life-like android and become a combined interactive companion and sex partner. Such advanced androids don’t exist yet, but they could one day.

Read more: Robots with benefits: how sexbots are marketed as companions

Proponents of companion robots argue this technology helps meet a legitimate need for more intimacy across society — especially for the elderly, widowed and people with disabilities.

Meanwhile, critics warn of the inherent risks of objectification, racism and dehumanisation — particularly of women, but also men.

Using tech to save us from the problems of tech?

Another problematic consequence may be rising numbers of socially reclusive people who substitute technology for real human interaction. In Japan, this phenomenon (called “hikikomori”) is quite prevalent.

At the same time, Japan has also experienced a severe decline in birth rates for decades. The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research predicts the population will fall from 127 million to about 88 million by 2065.

Concerned by the declining birth rate, the Japanese government last month announced it would pour two billion yen (about A$25,000,000) into an AI-based matchmaking system.

AI as a facilitator, not a replacement

The debate on digital and robotic “love” is highly polarised, much like most major debates in the history of technology. Usually, consensus is reached somewhere in the middle.

But in this debate, it seems the technology is advancing faster than we are approaching a consensus.

Generally, the most constructive relationship a person can have with technology is one in which the person is in control, and the technology helps enhance their experiences. For technology to be in control is dehumanising.

Humans have leveraged new technologies for millenia. Just as we learned how to use fire without burning down cities, so too we will have to learn the risks and rewards accompanying future tech.

– ref. Love in the time of algorithms: would you let your artificial intelligence choose your partner? – https://theconversation.com/love-in-the-time-of-algorithms-would-you-let-your-artificial-intelligence-choose-your-partner-152817

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Holly Seale, Associate professor, UNSW

Health workers are at higher risk of COVID infection and illness. They can also act as extremely efficient transmitters of viruses to others in medical and aged care facilities.

That’s why health workers have been prioritised to get a COVID vaccine when it becomes available in Australia.

But just because health workers are among those first in line to receive a COVID vaccine, it doesn’t necessarily mean they all will.

Read more: Australia’s vaccine rollout will now start next month. Here’s what we’ll need

Our health systems represent a microcosm of the community. Just like in the broader community, there will be health workers highly motivated to get the COVID-19 vaccine, driven by concern about risk to themselves, their family, and their patients. There will also be those who have medical conditions, those that may not be able to get vaccinated, and staff who are hesitant.

There will also be health workers with questions about the vaccine, who perhaps need further support to help them decide.

Reports from the US track vaccine hesitancy among health workers at around 29%. However, it’s important to note different groups have different reasons for COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy; rates and reasons can vary across and within countries.

Protecting health workers is critical. Achieving high COVID-19 vaccine uptake among health workers will not only protect these critical staff members, it will also support high levels of uptake among the general public.

Personal health workers are the most trusted source of information on the COVID-19 vaccine.

Health workers can also be complacent and uncertain about vaccination

Decision-making around vaccination can be a complex mix of psychosocial, cultural, political and other factors.

Health workers, just like the broader public, may perceive they are at low risk of acquiring a vaccine-preventable disease. They may have concerns about the safety and effectiveness of a vaccine and/or may find it challenging to get vaccinated.

All these factors may make a health worker reluctant to get the vaccine and communication strategies should be tailored to take these factors into account.

Read more: The Oxford vaccine has unique advantages, as does Pfizer’s. Using both is Australia’s best strategy

How to achieve high and equitable vaccination coverage among health workers

While most health workers understand how vaccines work generally, they may not necessarily be experts across all vaccine types. If we want to ensure they feel comfortable to receive it and advocate for it, then we must address any misunderstanding and concerns health workers may have. This may be focused on the vaccine itself (how it was developed, effectiveness and so on), or the necessity of vaccination.

One strategy that may assist will be to work with middle managers, as they are influential, trusted and can act as vaccine advocates and agents of change. They may also play a role addressing questions or concerns where they arise. If a COVID vaccine becomes an occupational requirement for health workers, hospitals and other organisations need to include middle managers in the development and roll-out of programs. They can then help ensure staff members understand the rationale for the mandate, which staff members are targeted and why.

Investing in the staff responsible for delivering vaccines in the workplace, as well as other potential vaccine allies such as managers, can help reduce COVID vaccine hesitancy among health workers. That will benefit all of us.

– ref. It’s crucial we address COVID vaccine hesitancy among health workers. Here’s where to start – https://theconversation.com/its-crucial-we-address-covid-vaccine-hesitancy-among-health-workers-heres-where-to-start-152977

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jim Orchard, Adjunct Lecturer, Monash University

Last week, somewhat overshadowed by the events in Washington, the Democrats took control of the US Senate. The Democrats now hold a small majority in both the House and the Senate until 2022, giving President-elect Joe Biden a better chance of getting climate actions through Congress.

Biden’s key nominees to environment and climate positions in his administration must be approved by the Senate, and the Democrat majority provides a clearer path for this.

Now we have a better picture of the climate-engaged Biden administration, the question for Australia is how the changes will affect our domestic climate politics.

An aggressive US climate policy rollout could provide a much needed dose of reality to the climate discourse in Canberra. It may also prompt Australia’s major parties to acknowledge the inevitability of a transition to a zero carbon economy.

Biden’s climate-fighting team

The nominees for Biden’s climate team are both well qualified and set new benchmarks for diversity. The initial response to the picks has been positive, both from the US climate activist community and more mainstream Democrats.

Congressional representative Deb Haaland will become the first Native American to serve as Secretary of the Interior. Michael Regan, currently head of North Carolina’s Department of Environmental Quality, will be the first African American to head the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

Read more: How Biden and Kerry could rebuild America’s global climate leadership

Biden also tapped several Obama alumni for key climate roles. The most notable is perhaps former EPA head Gina McCarthy, who will fill a newly created role as White House national climate advisor.

Former Michigan governor Jennifer Granholm is nominated as Secretary of Energy, and former presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg will lead the Department of Transport. Former Secretary of State John Kerry’s appointment as US Presidential Special Envoy on Climate was announced in late November.

The team will be charged with delivering Biden’s ambitious climate platform, which includes:

What this means for Australia

Beyond simply rejoining Paris, one suspects Biden will want Kerry to reclaim the US’ leadership role in the global quest for zero carbon. This will create a challenge for Australia.

Our Paris targets are modest at best. However in recent years, Trump’s antagonistic position on climate action meant the US absorbed the bulk of international criticism. The Biden win means Australia’s perceived lack of climate ambition will come under greater international scrutiny.

One suspects Morrison and other Liberal leaders understand key parts of their base object to Australia being viewed as a climate laggard. That much was made clear by the ousting of Liberal MP Tony Abbott in the blue-ribbon seat of Warringah at the last election. It follows that these Liberals privately recognise their net-zero timetable needs greater precision than the current “sometime in the second half of the century” approach.

Read more: After Biden’s win, Australia needs to step up and recommit to this vital UN climate change fund

Not all in the Coalition, especially in the National Party, share this view. Some will point to electorates most vulnerable to economic harm from reduced fossil fuel extraction, reformed land-use practices and lower agriculture emissions.

But politicians need to be adaptable. For Morrison to succeed in a post-Trump world, he must shift policies in a way that satisfies wealthy Liberal voters without driving regional voters to One Nation.

The Australian Labor Party will no doubt welcome the Coalition’s international climate discomfort. But should they regain power at the next election, they will face broadly similar issues. And the Greens will push Labor for aggressive targets hard to sell in key regional electorates.

Learning from the US experience

Australia’s journey to decarbonisation has more in common with the US than most other developed nations, such as those in Europe. Challenges and opportunities we share with the US include:

• the need to deal with emissions from land-use (such as tree clearing) and agriculture emissions

• an historic reliance on coal and coal mining

• domestic natural gas extraction

• high quality wind and solar resources (and hence possible future hydrogen production)

• good potential to capture and store carbon dioxide underground

• pumped hydro options

• disproportionate political power among regional populations. `

So a credible Biden pathway for both carbon-free electricity by 2035, and a net carbon-free society by 2050, will translate reasonably well into an Australian context. Once the US shows how decarbonisation can be done, Australia’s major parties will hopefully admit the transition is unavoidable.

One hopes this acknowledgement would be reflected in domestic policies to phase out domestic coal use – perhaps adopting US systems that financially reward storage and provision of backup power. Australia must also follow Biden’s lead and plan for electric vehicles with greater urgency.

More detail and less rhetoric on climate policy would be a welcome change across Australia’s political spectrum, including specifics on how affected communities will be helped through the transition.

Keeping a close eye

The Biden win is good news for climate action globally. But it will bring into sharper focus the breadth of change needed to achieve zero-carbon. And a more honest and open discussion about decarbonisation will deliver inconvenient truths for all players.

This, of course, assumes Biden delivers a credible and coherent climate plan. With Republicans in a weakened congressional position for the next two years, the biggest obstacle to progress will be internal fights between moderate and progressive Democrats, particularly in the Senate.

Political leaders in Australia, and elsewhere, will be watching closely to see how Biden’s team rises to the challenge, and what their path to success looks like.

Read more: Under Biden, the US would no longer be a climate pariah – and that leaves Scott Morrison exposed

– ref. Biden’s Senate majority doesn’t just super-charge US climate action, it blazes a trail for Australia – https://theconversation.com/bidens-senate-majority-doesnt-just-super-charge-us-climate-action-it-blazes-a-trail-for-australia-153090

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mittul Vahanvati, Lecturer, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT University

Heatwaves, floods, bushfires: disaster season is upon us again. We can’t prevent hazards or climate change-related extreme weather events but we can prepare for them — not just as individuals but as a community.

One way to do that is develop what is known as a resilience action plan, or RAP.

A RAP is a way for communities (be they school-based, profession-based, or neighbourhood-based) to collectively assess their strengths and weaknesses ahead of coming disasters, identify priorities and build an implementation strategy.

Recent work with Tarnagulla — a small town that sits in a bushfire and heatwave-prone part of rural Victoria — offers an example. The community got together, applied for funding and co-produced with me (Mittul Vahanvati) a tailor-made RAP for their town.

Their example highlights how small scale, grass roots action trumps waiting around for large scale, top-down climate action to shape our future.

Read more: Rebuilding from the ashes of disaster: this is what Australia can learn from India

The Tarnagulla story

Tarnagulla is about 180 kilometres north west of Melbourne, and 40 kilometres west of Bendigo. Its population and economic prospects boomed during the 1850s goldrush, but by the 2016 Census, its population had dwindled to just 133 people with a median age of 61.

The town relies on agriculture and animal husbandry, but faces myriad challenges, including:

• deteriorating Federation-era buildings, such as churches and community halls, with about 30% of houses unoccupied
• poor transport infrastructure, including crumbling roads, only one bus stop, a bus that goes once a week to Bendigo
• declining economic activity, with just one hotel, one post office and little to attract visitors
• growing risk from storms, droughts and bushfires
• a vulnerable population, with approximately 60-70% people living from pension to pension
• limited access to health care facilities
• insecure power and water infrastructure.

The town is at risk of disappearing. Its people face real danger when fire, heatwaves or other natural hazards strike and there’s precious little disposable income to spend on future-proofing homes.

The trajectory for Tarnagulla is not unusual in Victoria. Determined to save it from being engulfed by climate-change related disasters, the community applied for and got a grant from the Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, through their Virtual Centre for Climate Change Innovation.

They used part of the money to engage one of the authors (Mittul Vahanvati), to co-produce a RAP for and by Tarnagulla community.

Increasingly frequent and harsher heatwaves, bushfires and droughts

We held eight workshops over two years in Tarnagulla, with project leaders from the local community meeting me (Mittul Vahanvati) monthly. Establishing mutual trust and a sense of collaborative design was crucial; the process doesn’t work when an outsider parachutes in and starts telling locals what to do.

We identified the town’s existing strengths (outlined below).

We also talked about how climate change-related disasters — such as increasingly frequent and harsher heatwaves, bushfires and droughts — were causing problems locally such as

• power outages becoming longer and more frequent
• the soaring cost of keeping the house cool
• concerns the dam might burst in a flood
• people going without water for five days in previous disasters and being forced to buy water to survive.

The resulting RAP identified five main goals:

Local councillors, and representatives from the emergency management sector and the health sector got together to test out the RAP, its feasibility and whether it would help reduce loss and devastation of town during hazards.

It became clear a complete emergency evacuation plan would require the town having a safer shelter, improving key roads used to flee the town and ensuring comprehensive communication systems to help vulnerable people (such as older people, children or single people) during a disaster.

The town also identified the need for a change in mindset about risk, and better communication via social media. The local Landcare group also resolved to raise awareness abut conserving and developing drought-tolerant species.

What were some of the concrete outcomes?

The resulting resilience action plan was endorsed by the Tarnagulla community and launched in September 2020. Now, the town is working towards implementing it.

Thanks to the RAP, Tarnagulla was selected for a feasibility study looking at using a microgrid to deliver reliable and affordable energy, and assess whether the town would survive network faults due to extreme weather.

Many households invested or are investing in generators, solar panels, battery bank and ways to cool their house ahead of coming heatwaves, due to awareness gained during workshops.

Another win, separate but complimentary to the RAP is the Tarnagulla Primary School hall being retrofitted to serve as a community heatwave and bushfire safe shelter. The school has provided out-of-hours school access for members of the local community who have nowhere else to shelter when fires or heatwaves strike.

The school community also raised funds to install a 12.6kW solar system, with a goal of making the school energy independent during power outages or heatwaves.

The process of RAP also built confidence and skills in community members, some of whom have since been elected in the local council or part of the planning committees. There, they are in a much stronger position to push for urgent capital works to improve footpaths, public toilets and shops and support retrofitting of homes.

There is still plenty to be done, much of it needing extra funding (and as is the case everywhere, COVID has hindered progress). But now the town has a clear, community-endorsed plan to protect lives and properties and enable citizens to transition towards a resilient future.

Disaster resilience requires collective action

Much of the discourse around emergency preparedness focuses on individual preparedness, which puts the financial and physical burden on each person to “be ready” when disaster strikes. In reality, collective action is required.

As one participant told us,

We have realised that we are not alone in facing the present and anticipated challenges. There are new opportunities on the horizon to work together with other communities and projects.

If we want to prepare for uncertain futures, each one of us should consider building a RAP with our community.

Read more: ‘Nobody checked on us’: what people with disability told us about their experiences of disasters and emergencies

This article was co-authored by Leigh Mellberg (Principal, Tarnagulla Primary School) and George Filev (Country Fire Authority). It’s part of a series The Conversation is running on the nexus between disaster, disadvantage and resilience. You can read the rest of the stories here.

– ref. Disaster season is here — do you have a Resilience Action Plan? Here’s how the small town of Tarnagulla built theirs – https://theconversation.com/disaster-season-is-here-do-you-have-a-resilience-action-plan-heres-how-the-small-town-of-tarnagulla-built-theirs-151570

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mandie Shean, Lecturer, School of Education, Edith Cowan University

Starting school is an important event for children and a positive experience can set the tone for the rest of their school experience.

Some children are excited to attend school for the first time, yet others feel anxious. Back to school anxiety is a widely accepted phenomenon, but there is no data on exactly how many children feel anxious prior to starting school.

The data available indicates 6.9% of 4-11 year olds (278,000 children) have a diagnosed anxiety disorder in Australia.

Children who experience anxiety are more likely to have worse academic outcomes if it is not addressed. Therefore, it is critical to manage feelings of anxiety effectively to ensure children experience success in school. Parents can be comforted by the fact research shows exposure to our fears helps to reduce anxiety.

Fear of the unknown

Children can feel anxious about starting school due to uncertainty and a perceived lack of control. In one study, children said they felt shy or scared when they were starting school because they were unsure of their teacher, what was going to happen and where they would put their things.

Children also reported making friends and meeting “scary big kids” as a worry when they were starting school. However, some children were also excited about the possibility of making new friends.

Read more: From childcare to high school – what to do if you don’t like your kid’s friend

This shows if children perceived the experience as a threat rather than an opportunity, they experienced anxiety.

The stories we tell

When children have not attended school before they rely on their parents’ stories to help them frame their expectations. Research indicates children have increased social anxiety when parents’ stories include a threat in the environment or suggest the child is vulnerable.

Conversely, when parents’ stories include encouragement and suggest the child is competent and can cope, the children have less anxiety.

Related to that is research showing children can experience anxiety due to either excessive reassurance from their parents or overprotectiveness. While excessive reassurance is done to encourage children, it can also communicate to them there is a threat. It can cause children to become reliant on their parents for comfort when they are stressed and believe they are unable to cope alone.

Being overprotective can be due to parents’ own anxiety and insecurities about the school system. Unfortunately, while it is done in love, too much parent control leads to reduced problem solving skills and reduced competence in children. Overprotective parenting can communicate to children they need protecting from a “threat” (school). Children begin to feel anxious unless their parent is there to protect them.

Read more: Too much love: helicopter parents could be raising anxious, narcissistic children

Separation from parents can cause anxiety too. The diagnosis of separation anxiety is characterised by excessive anxiety concerning separation from the home or from those to whom the child is attached. Separation anxiety is normal in children but can be exacerbated by divorce, stress, or the child’s temperament.

What helps children feel less anxious about starting school?

There are several things that can help children — and their parents — feel less anxious about starting school.

Schools can communicate well with parents so they have knowledge about the upcoming processes. When parents know how things work they have reduced anxiety, therefore their child also has less anxiety. Schools can explain where children are dropped off, how long parents can stay, and how they arrange meetings with teachers. If you are a parent, ask for this information if it is not provided.

Parents and schools can provide children with skills and information. This can include positive advice on making friends, where things are located (such as the toilet), and how to access support. Some certainty and control can alleviate feelings of anxiety.

Research shows talking to children about future events and listening to their concerns can alleviate anxiety. This doesn’t mean you bring up potential threats, but address concerns on the children’s mind.

Read more: So your child refuses to go to school? Here’s how to respond

When parents make links between previous positive experiences and starting school, children are less anxious. Parents can remind children of the time they succeeded at swimming when they were nervous, or how they learned their alphabet. These small successes can provide a foundation for children’s school success.

Parents can also provide their child with some control and certainty over starting school. Let children select their bag and stationery. Walk around the school grounds with them. Introduce them to a child in the same year. Some certainty within uncertainty is healthy.

Finally, tell a good story. School can be exciting and filled with great experiences. Frame school as a potentially positive experience and one to look forward to. They may be nervous but they can overcome it.

– ref. Is your child anxious about starting school for the first time? Here’s how you can help – https://theconversation.com/is-your-child-anxious-about-starting-school-for-the-first-time-heres-how-you-can-help-153297

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Spark, Postdoctoral research fellow, Queensland University of Technology

Leadership is a human universal. It can even be seen in other species, which suggests it may be an evolutionarily ancient process.

A common personality trait of “natural” leaders is a higher than average level of extraversion. Research consistently shows extraverts, compared with introverts, are more likely to be regarded as leaders by others, and more likely to obtain leadership roles.

We decided to run an experiment to see if we could turn the leadership tables around by getting introverts to act like extraverts. We also wanted to find out how acting like an extravert makes introverts feel about themselves.

Our results show that introverts who act like extraverts are indeed viewed by others as having more leadership potential. We also found no evidence of psychological costs for introverts.

What we know about extraversion and leadership

Before we get to the specifics of our research, let’s briefly recap the basic science of extraversion and leadership.

Extraversion is a continuum that measures the degree to which someone is enthusiastic, assertive and seeks out social interaction. It is typically included as part of the five-factor model of personality.

The other dimensions – or traits – in the five-factor model include openness (being intellectually curious and creative), conscientiousness (being orderly and industrious), agreeableness (being compassionate and polite), and neuroticism (being sensitive to experiencing negative emotions like anxiety, depression, and anger).

Extraversion has biological roots and is heritable. In others words, part of the reason we find differences in levels of extraversion between people is because there are genetic differences between people that partially determine our personality. Our genes even predict the likelihood we will occupy a leadership position.

We also know that extraverts have a more sensitive dopamine system in their brain. They are wired to find rewards more enticing. They crave social interaction and the attention that comes with it. This fact may partially explain why extraverts are more motivated to obtain leadership roles, given leadership is an inherently social process.

Read more: It’s hard to find a humble CEO. Here’s why

How we did our experiment

Our experiment consisted of 601 participants randomly divided into 166 leaderless groups of typically four people.

We asked these groups to complete a 20-minute joint problem-solving activity (prioritising items needed to survive on the Moon). Participants were not told the purpose of the experiment.

We then split the groups into three “experimental conditions”.

In the first (consisting of 53 groups) we randomly selected one person per group to act energetic, talkative, enthusiastic, bold, active, assertive and sociable – in other words, extraverted. These instructions were not known to other group members.

In the second (55 groups), the randomly chosen group member was secretly instructed to act quiet, reserved, lethargic, passive, compliant and unadventurous – in other words, introverted.

The third was our control condition with 58 groups, where no individual instructions were given.

At the of end the activity, participants rated the leadership quality of other group members (and themselves). They also rated how they felt.

We controlled for age, gender and other personality traits using a standard personality test. This ensured we isolated the true effect of extraverted and introverted behaviour.

Acting like an extravert works

The first part of our results were unsurprising. Compared with participants in the control condition, those instructed to act extraverted were rated by others as having more leadership potential. Those instructed to act introverted were rated lower.

What was notable is that these ratings did not depend on “trait extraversion”. In other words, when instructed to act extraverted, both introverts and extraverts were rated higher on their leadership potential compared with an equivalently extraverted person in the control condition.

Equally, we found the participants instructed to act introverted were rated lower on their leadership potential compared with control participants.

But what was particularly interesting was these participants also rated themselves especially poorly on leadership ratings – worse than did their group members. Acting introverted had a particularly negative impact on how those individuals viewed their own leadership potential.

Read more: Why too many fearless people on a team make collaboration less likely

How acting out of character felt

How our “actors” felt after the activity is shown in the next figure.

Compared with the control participants, there was no difference for those who acted extraverted. Even introverts felt perfectly OK after acting like extraverts.

The extraverts who acted introverted were a different matter. They had fewer positive and more negative feelings compared with those in the control condition. In short, acting introverted made them feel bad.

Should introverts act out of character to get ahead?

Our research shows introverts can effectively act out of character to obtain and succeed in leadership roles.

If you’re an introvert, you might feel you should not have to. But we suggest that being prepared to adapt your behaviour to the demands of a situation gives you an advantage over those who aren’t.

Nor is it as hard as you may think. Research shows introverts overestimate the unpleasantness and underestimate the “hedonic benefits” of acting extraverted. One study even suggests introverts feel more authentic when acting extraverted.

Read more: Introverts think they won’t like being leaders but they are capable

Knowing extraverted behaviour is usually – though not always – enjoyable can help you feel more confident about “faking” extraverted behaviour in your own best interest.

So lead on – if you want.

– ref. To get ahead as an introvert, act like an extravert. It’s not as hard as you think – https://theconversation.com/to-get-ahead-as-an-introvert-act-like-an-extravert-its-not-as-hard-as-you-think-151028

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Turnbull, Postdoctoral research associate, UNSW

A global coalition of more than 50 countries have this week pledged to protect over 30% of the planet’s lands and seas by the end of this decade. Their reasoning is clear: we need greater protection for nature, to prevent further extinctions and protect the life-sustaining ecosystems crucial to human survival.

The globally recognised tool to safeguard marine biodiversity is to designate a “marine protected area”. But not all protected areas are created equal.

The level of protection these areas provide depends on the activities permitted in their boundaries. For example, in “fully” protected areas, no plants or animals can be removed or harmed. Meanwhile, “partially” protected areas allow various extractive activities to occur, such as fishing and sometimes even mining.

Australia prides itself on having one of the largest marine protected area networks in the world, which includes iconic locations such as the Great Barrier Reef, Jervis Bay in New South Wales, Wilson’s Promontory in Victoria and Rottnest Island in Western Australia. But only one quarter of this network is fully protected.

The remaining three quarters are only partially protected, with vast areas allowing fishing, aquaculture and mining exploration. This is despite industrial-scale extraction of resources going against international guidelines for protected areas.

So why is this a problem? Our two recent research papers show partially protected areas don’t contribute much to wildlife conservation, yet take valuable conservation resources away from fully protected areas, which need them more.

The gap between fully and partially protected areas

Our landmark study, published today, looked at marine protected areas in southern Australia. We gathered social and ecological data, including conducting 439 interviews, across five states and 7,000 kilometres of coastline.

We found partially protected areas had no more fish, invertebrates or algae than unprotected areas. Fully protected areas, by comparison, had 30% more fish species and over twice the total weight of fish compared to unprotected areas.

Read more: Why marine protected areas are often not where they should be

We also found partially protected areas were no more of an attraction to locals and visitors than unprotected areas — they had similar numbers and mix of users, such as walkers, swimmers, fishers and divers.

On the other hand, fully protected areas were attractive to locals and visitors for their abundant wildlife and level of protection. They had twice as many divers and more than three times as many snorkelers compared to unprotected areas.

What’s more, swimmers, divers and snorkelers said they experience significantly more marine life in fully protected areas, but not partially protected areas.

Defying public expectations

The Australian marine protected area network has been moving further away from public expectations. In a 2020 social study, researchers found Australians are generally confused about what activities are permitted in these areas.

Survey respondents were presented with the full list of activities allowed within partially protected areas, and asked to indicate which activities they understood to be permitted or prohibited within marine protected areas in Australia.

Overwhelmingly, they believed marine protected areas offer strict protection to the marine environment, preventing all types of extractive uses, including recreational fishing.

The majority of Australia’s marine protected area network allow for commercial fishing, but few respondents were aware of this. Fewer still were aware large areas permit destructive activities, such as bottom trawling, which can destroy the seabed. The research team also documented many cases where protection has been downgraded, such as the Solitary Islands and Jervis Bay Marine Parks in NSW.

It’s clear Australians expect the marine protected area network to adequately safeguard our unique wildlife. Yet these findings show their views are in stark contrast to the reality of marine environmental protection.

A matter of money

There are costs associated with partially protected areas – they consume conservation resources and occupy space that could otherwise be allocated to more effective protection. In fact, research from 2011 found areas with a mixture of partial and full protection are up to twice as expensive to manage than a simpler fully protected area.

Partially protected areas do have a role in our overall marine network, but they should be used for specific purposes such as enabling traditional management practices, protecting important breeding sites, or acting as buffer zones around fully protected areas.

Read more: Changes to Australia’s marine reserves leave our oceans unprotected

The recent changes to Australia’s marine reserve network represent an extremely worrying trend, as fully protected areas such as in the Coral Sea and Batemans Bay have been opened up to fishing.

Given the uncertainty surrounding the effectiveness of partially protected areas globally, at a time when we face increasing challenges from climate change and loss of biodiversity, the findings of our two recent Australian studies indicate we should be aiming for more fully protected areas, not less.

If the world is to protect 30% of all lands and seas by the end of this decade, those protected areas need to be monitored closely to ensure they are delivering on their goals and expectations.

Read more: Worried about Earth’s future? Well, the outlook is worse than even scientists can grasp

– ref. 75% of Australia’s marine protected areas are given only ‘partial’ protection. Here’s why that’s a problem – https://theconversation.com/75-of-australias-marine-protected-areas-are-given-only-partial-protection-heres-why-thats-a-problem-149452