Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amanda Howell, Senior Lecturer, Griffith University

The fifth film in the Mad Max action franchise, Furiosa, has been greenlit for production and will reach theatres in June 2023. Like the critically acclaimed Fury Road (2015), Furiosa will blend Australian and international talent and funding, and is anticipated to be the largest film ever produced in New South Wales.

A cinematic success story, the Mad Max franchise also presents something of a challenge. Since the 1970s, Australian cinema has been dominated by a national identity agenda, while the action genre has always been more about entertainment than identity; more about commerce than culture.

Indeed, in 2016, when David Stratton and Margaret Pomeranz reviewed the best Australian productions of the previous year, Stratton questioned whether Fury Road could even “count” as an Australian film.

But action is an important part of Australia’s cinematic origin story. Charles Tait’s sensational 1906 bushranger film, The Story of the Kelly Gang, believed to be the world’s first feature length production, is also a notable forerunner of the action genre.

George Miller — the creator, writer and director of the Mad Max franchise — describes the spectacular entertainment delivered by the action film as “elemental”. For Miller, action is cinema and has been since the silent era.

Giving action an Australian accent

The action film is commonly regarded as the “other” of national cinema, thanks to its limited interest in developing complex characters and narratives. Nevertheless, the Mad Max franchise gave action an Australian accent — even if that accent was inexplicably overdubbed by the US distributor that introduced Americans to Mad Max.

Miller’s 1979 Mad Max stands out from the Australian genre films of the 1970s and 1980s now commonly referred to as “Ozploitation”.

Like other Ozploitation films, Mad Max was the product of low budget guerrilla style film-making. Where it differed was in its quality and the level of success achieved in overseas markets.

In a decade filled with car chases and crashes, Mad Max stood out in the international market for the inventiveness of its spectacular vehicular mayhem, ultimately grossing almost 500 times its budget of $200,000 in the worldwide box office.

Mad Max 2 (1981) made the most of its much larger budget effectively inventing, as academic Adrian Martin points out, the post-apocalyptic genre of action cinema.

Mad Max 2 set the tone for the rest of the franchise. Here, Miller reimagined the Australian outback as an anarchic wasteland populated by sado-masochistic punk villains and ocker clowns. Max is no longer the ex-cop seeking revenge, but instead a solitary survivor, reluctantly turned hero.

The story of reluctant heroism continues to be retold throughout the Mad Max films. In Beyond Thunderdome (1985) Max is once again transformed into a figure of myth, after helping a group of feral children escape the post-apocalyptic desert. In Fury Road, Max starts the film strapped to the front of a car as a human-hood-ornament-cum-blood-bag, and ends once again as something like a hero, after ferrying wise and fertile women to where new life might grow.

Read more: Stanza and deliver – the filmic poetry of Mad Max: Fury Road

In each, there is an echo of those Australian bushranger films whose anti-heroic protagonists are forced to violence by circumstance. And sometime become mythic heroes in the process.

But more importantly, the franchise continues to explore the visceral pleasures and possibilities of action, in the midst of social and natural threats.

Action as a global genre

Furiosa will be a prequel to Fury Road. Miller has described Fury Road as “almost a western on wheels”, harking back to one of the most popular genres of the silent era: the chase film.

Its visual shocks and surprises are delivered primarily through elaborate stunt work, a signature element in the Mad Max franchise — and Australian action more generally.

Action films centre on the spectacle of bodies in motion. With stories often simplified to clashes of good versus evil, they works to surprise and shock with death-defying feats and scenes of violent destruction.

Consequently, what Sight and Sound critic Larry Gross has dubbed “the Big Loud Action Movie” can break through barriers of language and culture.

Focused on visual spectacle, the action genre is well suited to those multimedia marketing campaigns crucial to blockbuster films’ success. Looking at a list of all time top grossing films worldwide, we see that the action genre outperforms any other single film genre at the box office, accounting for seven titles in the top 10.

Outward looking cinema

Since the mid-2000s, there has been a move toward an increasingly commercial and explicitly outward looking Australian cinema. The result has been a boom in Australian genre film making distinguished by a focus on higher budgets and transnational productions, such as Stuart Beattie’s I, Frankenstein (2014) and Gary McKendry’s Killer Elite (2011).

There were three decades between the release of Beyond Thunderdome and Fury Road. This 2015 reboot became an important milestone Australian cinema’s “international turn”. These films, and the Mad Max franchise more generally, offer a distinctively Australian take on the action genre.

Read more: What do Mad Max’s six Oscars mean for the Australian film industry?

In 2018, Fury Road topped a list of the best Australian films of the 21st century chosen by critics, including Stratton — who once questioned if it was Australian at all.

The fifth film, Furiosa promises to be yet another action blockbuster extravaganza of the sort that dominates the box office worldwide. Shifting the franchise focus from reluctant hero Max to the renegade Furiosa, it will continue a widespread trend toward putting more female action heroes on screen.

And whatever else Furiosa may be, we can count on being spectacularly entertained.

– ref. Our enduring love of Mad Max’s Australian outback: an anarchic wasteland of sado-masochistic punk villains and ocker clowns – https://theconversation.com/our-enduring-love-of-mad-maxs-australian-outback-an-anarchic-wasteland-of-sado-masochistic-punk-villains-and-ocker-clowns-159441

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tom Baker, Senior Lecturer in Human Geography, University of Auckland

Liam’s* crowdfunding campaign page is direct: his “sole purpose is to survive”.

Before his diagnosis with inoperable brain cancer, Liam was a “healthy, fitness and sports minded 44-year-old, [who gave] his time and skills away freely by being a regular at charity events, fundraising for a number of organisations and more recently sponsoring amateur athletes”.

Holly, Liam’s friend, caregiver and now crowdfunding campaign manager, appeals to the crowd: “It’s time for us to come together and help this amazing man out.”

This narrative may be familiar — it provides a window into the high-stakes world of medical crowdfunding. In our new research, we explore who the people behind these campaigns are and how they work to capture the crowd’s attention in a competitive environment.

Crowdfund like your life depends on it

A study of medical campaigns in the US suggests crowdfunding has become a “gap-filler” or an entrepreneurial safety net for people without health insurance. Crowdfunding is less prevalent in the UK because universal healthcare is available, but nevertheless, it has helped raise at least £8m for alternative cancer treatments since 2009.

Weak or non-existant reporting requirements make it difficult to know the exact volume and growth of medical crowdfunding internationally. But on most donation-based crowdfunding platforms, medical or health-related campaigns vie for being the largest category. A glance at GoFundMe (the platform with 80% of the global market share) reveals the scale and variety of medical crowdfunding campaigns.

While Liam’s campaign raised over NZ$30,000 in three months, many campaigns are not so successful. Indeed, there’s a wide range in the ability of campaigners to capture the hearts, and open the wallets, of the crowd.

Read more: Giving in the pandemic: More than half of Americans have found ways to help those hit by COVID-19 hardship

Inside medical crowdfunding campaigns

The majority (71%) of medical crowdfunding campaigns in New Zealand are associated with illnesses, rather than accidents, longer-term disabilities or other health needs.

Most campaigns are not organised directly or solely by the person who is unwell. The overwhelming majority are constructed and managed by a family member, friend or other third party on behalf of the funding recipient.

For example, on New Zealand’s largest crowdfunding platform Givealittle, this applied to 83% in June 2020. Young adults are more likely to run their own campaigns than those in other age groups.

Despite the importance of the campaigner’s work, little is known about the experiences and perspectives of campaigners themselves. Through first-hand accounts of 15 crowdfunding campaigners on Givealittle, our research reveals campaigners take on considerable work and shoulder responsibilities at particularly challenging times in their lives.

Read more: Crowdfunding: when the government fails to act, the public wearily steps up

Among our participants, the difference in financial success between campaigns was significant: amounts raised ranged from NZ$1,000 to $90,000, but most fell into the $10,000 to $30,000 range.

A majority of people running campaigns said the money raised largely came from friends and family rather than strangers. This suggests it is difficult getting people to donate money for someone they don’t actually know. Funders are often not a faceless crowd at all — they are family, friends and acquaintances.

Framing illness to captivate the crowd

Pushing beyond one’s immediate networks and into the larger, anonymous reaches of the crowd means navigating a mine field of social biases about who deserves assistance and who doesn’t.

Campaigners work hard to frame illnesses in ways that resonate. These framings speak volumes not only about them, but about us: the crowd.

Crowdfunding campaigners have to demonstrate that the recipient “deserves” the financial support. This applies to both the illness (or disability, or other health need) and the person or family experiencing them.

This is often done by describing the funding recipient as “hard-working” and “community minded”. Many successful campaigners emphasised the funding recipient had become ill “through no fault of their own”, or as a result of “bad luck”. This framing establishes the recipient as the subject of misfortune, rather than personal irresponsibility, and therefore deserving of the crowd’s sympathy.

These criteria of “choice” and “responsibility” were seen by participants to affect which illnesses were most readily marketable in a crowdfunding context. While $90,000 was raised for a child with a rare form of cancer in just three weeks, a mother raising money for her child’s anorexia nervosa treatment described the “uphill battle” of fundraising for a misunderstood and often stigmatised illness, raising just $3,000 over six months.

Burdens of responsibility

Constructing crowdfunding campaigns takes time and energy, burdening campaigners when many struggle with increased care duties and continuing work commitments. The campaigners we interviewed reflected on how much effort went into crafting the perfect narrative on the crowdfunding platform.

Work on the campaign didn’t stop once the money came in. Many campaigners described a sense of duty in remaining accountable to their donors, providing updates and assurance that they were using funds responsibly.

We know from existing research that medical crowdfunding campaigns tend to compound economic inequality. People occupying positions of relative privilege are more likely to be connected to others with the means to donate.

Read more: Medical crowdfunding supports the wealthy and endangers privacy — here’s how to make it more ethical

Our research reveals an additional set of inequalities that appear to be exacerbated through crowdfunding: uneven distribution of time, physical and emotional energy, linguistic skills and advertising savvy — and the ability of particular illnesses and bodies to elicit care from others. This includes the age, gender and ethnic appearance of the recipient, as well as their type of need.

Success is deeply contingent on the skills of the campaigner, the traits of the recipient and the moral sensibilities of the crowd. The uncertainty of whether or not these three things will align can be taxing.

Campaigners and recipients are no doubt grateful for the existence of crowdfunding platforms and the charity of individual crowdfunders. At the same time, charitable donations cannot alleviate the wider structural inequalities that propel people towards this time-consuming strategy for meeting life-and-death needs, and which replicate the same inequalities.

*Names have been changed

– ref. How crowdfunding campaigners market illness to capture the attention of potential donors – https://theconversation.com/how-crowdfunding-campaigners-market-illness-to-capture-the-attention-of-potential-donors-159197

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

All flights from India have been suspended until May 15, to take pressure off the quarantine system especially in Sydney and at the Howard Springs centre in the Northern Territory.

Scott Morrison on Tuesday also announced an initial package of supplies to assist the crisis-ridden country, including 500 non-invasive ventilators, gowns, goggles, gloves, masks, and face shields.

With an acute shortage of oxygen in Indian hospitals, the government will also procure 100 oxygen concentrators, with tanks and consumables for them.

The suspension and the aid package were ticked off by the federal cabinet’s security committee.

More than 9,000 Australian citizens and residents are registered in India including 650 considered vulnerable.

Morrison said the decision would affect two passenger services into Sydney and two repatriation flights into Darwin, involving about 500 people.

Last week the government cut arrivals and flights from India but has decided on the suspension because those coming from there are forming such a high proportion of COVID cases.

Morrison said 95% of the cases among recent arrivals into the Howard Springs facility were people from India.

He said the future of flights from India would be reviewed before May 15.

The passengers on all future flights, when and if these were resumed, would be required to have both a negative PCR test and a negative rapid antigen test before leaving, Morrison said.

Indirect entry to Australia from India through Singapore, Doha, Dubai and Kuala Lumpur is also blocked, because “we are aware flights to and from these transit points and India have been paused by the respective governments”.

Australia is restricting exemptions for travel to India to essential travel only.

Since March last year the federal government has facilitated 38 flights out of India.

Foreign Minister Marise Payne said Australian posts in India “will be redoubling their efforts” to maintain contact with Australians there, to ensure they know about travel settings, any changes and available assistance.

Morrison said the government would also reach out to the local Indian community in Australia.

Asked about the position of the Australia cricketers now in India Morrison said they would get no special priority when flights resume. Priority would go to vulnerable people.

“This wasn’t part of an Australian tour. They’re under their own resources. And they’ll be using those resources to, I’m sure, to see them return to Australia in accordance with their own arrangements.”

The latest daily number of new cases in India reported on Tuesday for the previous 24 hours was more than 323,000, down from the more 350,000 reported on Monday.

Before last week’s announcement the government had eight government- sponsored flights from India planned for the month of May.

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk said the decision to suspend flights “will be difficult for families, but it is the right decision at this time”.

– ref. Flights from India suspended until at least mid-May – https://theconversation.com/flights-from-india-suspended-until-at-least-mid-may-159820

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Arrow, Professor of History, Macquarie University

Imagine you are in a large building near Parliament House in Canberra filled with irreplaceable objects. Not jewels, medals or paintings, but a collection of letters, tapes and documents of Australian life.

The collection contains letters written to and from prime ministers, and recordings of their speeches. It has historic episodes of the ABC television programs Four Corners and Countdown. Audio recordings of the Royal Commission into Aboriginal Deaths in Custody. Your grandmother’s migration records. Your uncle’s military service records. Covert ASIO surveillance footage of anti-Vietnam war demonstrations. Letters from women living under the shadow of domestic violence, written to the Royal Commission on Human Relationships.

These are just some of the things to be found in the National Archives of Australia. Its role is to collect, manage and preserve records generated by the Australian government. This sounds dull, but it is anything but.

It is not merely a “politician’s archive”: while the NAA is famous for its annual release of cabinet records on January 1 each year, some of the collection’s richest records are those that offer insights into the lives of ordinary Australians. Whether they were migrating to Australia, registering for military service, or writing to the prime minister to demand that he fund women’s refuges, ordinary citizens generated paper trails that have been preserved in the NAA’s collections. As a resource for understanding the ways that government works, and the ways that citizens interacted with it, the NAA is a peerless resource. The material it houses belongs to all of us.

Now imagine burning this building to the ground, destroying almost everything inside. Last week, historians around the world watched in horror as the Library at the University of Cape Town burned down, taking with it thousands of irreplaceable historical records. Thanks to years of underfunding, Australia is on track to see a similar, though less spectacular, destruction of historical records, unless the federal government makes an urgent injection of funds.

Read more: Cabinet papers 1998-99: how the GST became unstoppable

Over the past few years, both Labor and Liberal governments have repeatedly cut funding to our national cultural institutions, including the National Archives. All commonwealth agencies have been subject to so-called “efficiency dividends” since 1987. This means that each year they receive a reduction in funding.

While this is intended to drive savings, in effect, according to a 2019 parliamentary inquiry, it has had a “significant and compounding effect” on cultural institutions over the last decade. This was made even worse in 2015-16, when the Turnbull government imposed an additional 3% “efficiency target” on national cultural institutions.

This means institutions like the National Archives have been forced to shed expert staff and reduce services to users. In 2013, the archives had 429 staff around Australia but by 2019, this had shrunk to just 308. This has made it more difficult for people to access material at the archives, as opening hours have been reduced. Users report long delays when they request materials; obtaining digital copies of files can cost you hundreds of dollars. This user-pays system has further restricted access to collections.

Even more urgently, these funding cuts are also taking irreplaceable audio visual collections to the brink of a “digital cliff”: that is, where a combination of material fragility and redundant technology will destroy a huge audio visual archive. Australia’s audio-visual collections will hurtle over this digital cliff by 2025 if no action is taken.

Let’s think for a moment about what this means.

Australia has experienced a century of profound and rapid transformation, all of it captured by the mass media. Television, film and audio show us how people in the past moved, sounded and spoke: they offer vivid and compelling evidence of life in the past that is impossible to obtain any way.

This kind of footage is the mainstay of documentaries. Archival footage can light a fire of curiosity about our past, especially in those who might never pick up a history book. It is crucial especially for engaging young people in history. Brazen Hussies, the recent documentary about the history of women’s liberation, was so successful because of its use of vivid, rarely-seen archival footage, much of it held in the National Archives.

Filmmakers would struggle to create lively historical documentaries if we allow the archival film held by the National Archives to be destroyed. It would be disastrous for our historical understanding.

What is so astonishing is that the amount of money required to pull us back from the digital cliff is relatively small. The government has committed $500m to an expansion of the Australian War Memorial : the Tune Review of the National Archives, released in March this year, recommended the government fund a seven year program to urgently digitise at-risk materials. The cost? Just $67.7 million.

The National Archives is a crucial democratic institution. It plays an important role in holding the state to account, encouraging broad participation in civic life by facilitating access to records generated by the Australian government. This gives it enormous power to control – and limit – access to government records.

Yet it has not always exercised this power wisely.

Given the enormous financial pressures on the National Archives, its decision to fight Professor Jenny Hocking’s bid to access the so-called “Palace Letters”, a legal dispute that cost the archives more than $1 million, was a deeply misguided use of precious funds.

Read more: Jenny Hocking: why my battle for access to the ‘Palace letters’ should matter to all Australians

Similarly, many historians have criticised the archives’ overly cautious approach to clearing records for access, which has led to huge backlogs of unprocessed requests. Its practice of sending records back to the department that originally created them means documents can languish, unchecked, for months or even years.

As the Australian Historical Association noted in its submission to the Tune review,

A process which restricts or even refuses access to government documents without adequate justification does not reflect an open and free democratic process.

The National Archives has much work to do to improve access to the records it holds. But it is also clear it has been denied essential funding for many years, and this has taken a toll.

The archives contains irreplaceable records that are important to every Australian. It is the government’s role to fund our national cultural institutions adequately so they can preserve and maintain this material: not just for citizens today, but for the citizens of the future.

– ref. Our history up in flames? Why the crisis at the National Archives must be urgently addressed – https://theconversation.com/our-history-up-in-flames-why-the-crisis-at-the-national-archives-must-be-urgently-addressed-159804

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Carey Wilson, PhD Candidate, The University of Melbourne

At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, we were concerned infection control measures such as extra hand washing and social distancing might compound the distress of people living with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD).

Early anecdotal evidence and case studies reported an apparent increase in OCD relapse rates and symptom severity.

But a year on, we’re learning this is not necessarily the case, and research is giving us a more nuanced understanding of what it’s like to have OCD during a pandemic.

Read more: Hoarding, stockpiling, panic buying: What’s normal behavior in an abnormal time?

What is OCD?

OCD is a common and disabling condition, affecting roughly 1.2% of Australians.

It’s characterised by obsessions (repetitive intrusive thoughts) and compulsions (physical actions or mental rituals) that attempt to quell these preoccupations.

There are several subtypes of OCD, including:

• contamination: characterised by obsessions and compulsions centred around washing, cleaning and concerns around personal hygiene and health

• overresponsibility: encompassing pathological doubt, concerns over unintentional harm to others or oneself, and persistent urges to check things

• symmetry: obsessions about things feeling “just right” (for example, uniform and/or symmetrical), resulting in ritualistic behaviours including counting and ordering

• taboo: characterised by unwanted intrusive thoughts that are often violent, sexual or religious in nature.

Although we don’t fully understand what causes OCD, research points to abnormal activity of specific brain networks, including a network called the cortico-striatal-thalamo-cortical loop.

This network connects key emotional, cognitive and motor hubs in the brain, and it’s particularly important for higher-order cognitive tasks such as thinking flexibly.

No, people with OCD aren’t ‘quirky’

There are several prevailing stereotypes about what it means to live with OCD, such as a belief people with the disorder are just a bit quirky, overly particular, “neat freaks” or “germ-phobic”.

Such ideas are frequently promulgated in popular culture. For example, in 2018 Khloe Kardashian promoted her “KHLO-C-D” branding for an online miniseries in which she gave tips on home organisation and cleanliness. The campaign was widely criticised.

While contamination fears and an affinity for symmetry are better recognised in the community (perhaps owing to portrayals in TV and film), the “taboo” and “overresponsibility” dimensions of OCD are far less understood and are therefore subject to higher levels of stigma.

Are we all OCD now?

The global response to COVID-19 has blurred the line between pathological behaviours and adaptive health and safety measures.

Behaviours that were previously linked to psychiatric illnesses, such as repetitive washing and sanitising rituals, are now encouraged (at least to some extent) by health authorities.

While infection control directives such as social distancing and hand hygiene play an essential role in our fight against the virus, they take a psychological toll too.

The pandemic has had a profound effect on mental health due to increased stress and lifestyle changes. Indeed, scientists have recently proposed a condition called “COVID-19 stress syndrome”. Some of the symptoms significantly overlap with anxiety disorders and OCD.

While we don’t all have OCD now, it’s unquestionable our collective behaviour has changed in ways that make the distinction between “normal” and “pathological” much more complex.

In this light, the International College of Obsessive–Compulsive Spectrum Disorders has highlighted the unique challenges the pandemic poses for accurately diagnosing OCD.

Read more: You can’t be ‘a little bit OCD’ but your everyday obsessions can help end the condition’s stigma

Living with OCD in a pandemic

Having a pre-existing mental health condition appears to be the single most influential predictor of high stress levels during COVID-19.

However, recent evidence from well-controlled studies doesn’t find compelling evidence that people with OCD have been affected by COVID-19 to a greater extent than those with other psychological conditions (such as depression or general anxiety).

One study published in January compared OCD severity in a large group before and during the pandemic. It found the stress induced by COVID-19 increased measures of mental distress across all OCD symptom dimensions (not only those directly related to a public health crisis).

The authors suggested the increase in OCD symptom severity was likely a “non-specific stress-related response”. In other words, it’s the general stress of the pandemic that has worsened OCD in some cases; not the increased focus on infection control.

Another recent study found the pandemic didn’t lessen the benefits of treatment in a large outpatient group with OCD in India.

Interestingly, the researchers from this study also found prior incomplete disease remission (cases of OCD that persisted even with treatment) and general stress were the best predictors of OCD relapse during the pandemic, rather than “COVID-specific” stress, per se.

After the pandemic

These findings don’t suggest there’s a specific vulnerability to COVID-related stress for people with OCD.

But it’s worth noting cognitive inflexibility, a symptom often seen in OCD, may make it more difficult for people with the disorder to “unlearn” temporary public health directives.

So it’s important we continue to monitor the effects of COVID-related stress on OCD and similar disorders, particularly as we slowly transition from the pandemic.

There’s much we can learn from the study of OCD during COVID-19. Most notably, it appears an “intuitive” understanding of the disorder doesn’t sufficiently capture the breadth of individual OCD experiences.

A deeper understanding of the variability of OCD presentations, and a move away from stereotyped perceptions, may encourage more people to openly discuss their own OCD experience and seek treatment.

Read more: My skin’s dry with all this hand washing. What can I do?

Need support?

If you live in Australia, call Lifeline (13 11 14), Kids Helpline (1800 551 800) or BeyondBlue (1800 512 348). Alternatively, “OCD STOP!” is a free online program designed to help you better understand and manage OCD.

If you simply want to learn more about OCD, online resources are available at SANE Australia and Beyond Blue.

– ref. No, OCD in a pandemic doesn’t necessarily get worse with all that extra hand washing – https://theconversation.com/no-ocd-in-a-pandemic-doesnt-necessarily-get-worse-with-all-that-extra-hand-washing-157961

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

Not long ago it seemed as if the future was going to get better and better — not long ago at all.

For me the high point was around 2005, fifteen years ago.

I don’t know if you can remember how you felt at the time, but for me the surge in living standards, driven by an ever-building surge in output per working hour (“productivity”) suggested things were building on themselves: each new innovation was making use of the ones that had come before to the point where….

Ray Kurzweil, now the director of research at Google, summed it up in a book released in 2005 itself, titled The Singularity Is Near.

Singularity was “a future period during which the pace of technological change will be so rapid, its impact so deep, that human life will be irreversibly transformed”.

Changes would build on each other to the point where everything changed at once.

Kurzweil dubbed it the “law of accelerating returns”.

Year by year in the leadup to 2005, Australia’s productivity growth had accelerated to the point where in the 15 years to 2005 it had grown 37%.

If it kept accelerating…

In the 1930s economist John Maynard Keynes foresaw “ever larger and larger classes and groups of people from whom problems of economic necessity have been practically removed”. On average the working week might fall to 15 hours.

In the 1970s, futurologist Alvin Toffler spoke of a four-hour working day.

And then from 2005 on productivity growth collapsed. In the 15 years since, Australia’s output per working hour (productivity) has grown by just 17%.

Thirty seven per cent turned out to be the high point.

Long-run productivity growth, Australia

And not only here. In the United States and other developed economies productivity growth is divided into “before 2005” when it was rapid, and “after 2005” when it collapsed.

2005 is when Apple got serious about developing the iPhone. It was when many of our technological innovations really did start building on themselves.

2005 is when things were meant to take off

In his impressive book The Rise and Fall of American Growth economist Robert Gordon rightly points out that things like the iPhone are nothing like as genuinely useful as the innovations in the leadup to the 1940s.

Gordon says not a single urban home was wired for electricity in 1880, but by 1940 nearly 100% had mains power, 94% had clean piped water, 80% had flush toilets and 56% had refrigerators.

He says whereas as all of us could quite happily travel back in time 60 years from today and enjoy a recognisable lifestyle, we couldn’t have done it if we travelled back 60 years from the 1940s.

Instead, they stagnated

It’s as if the innovation we’ve had has been less useful. As if, in the words of PayPal founder Peter Thiel, “we wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters”.

Or it might be that the things we do these days are harder to automate.

A century ago roughly half the Australian workforce worked in service jobs — doing things such as hairdressing and writing reports. Today it’s 80%.

Back then, 45% of us worked in farming or manufacturing. Today it’s not even 10%

Services such as hairdressing, nursing and aged care are about as productive as they will ever be. It’s possible to cut hair or consult patients faster, but what’s lost is the time and personal attention spent doing it, which is part of the service.

We might be reaching hard limits

If productivity is output (the service) per unit of input (time spent), it doesn’t make sense to measure it where much of the output is the input.

That’s one of the reasons the Bureau of Statistics provides measures of what it calls multi-factor productivity for industries such as agriculture and mining, but not for “health and social assistance” which is Australia’s biggest employer.

The Bureau is working on a measure for health, but it thinks it will have to use as the output changed life expectancy or surveys of patient “satisfaction” with their treatment.

Read more: Have we just stumbled on the biggest productivity increase of the century?

In the US as many as 30% of workers now work in “persuasive industries” including advertising, public relations and the law.

It is almost impossible to measure their output — is it success in persuading people to change their minds?

For public servants and writers it is possible to measure output in terms of words produced, but deeply unhelpful. It is far from certain these workers would be more productive if they worked faster.

Technology might even be sending us backwards

Which is a way of saying that we might be coming up against hard limits in the amount we can squeeze out of each hour of paid work. Or perhaps not. The Singularity promises us robots that can talk to dementia patients and bots that can write political news.

And the application of technology might even be sending productivity backwards.

British economics writer Tim Harford points out that what drove the really big advances in productivity in manufacturing was specialisation.

The father of capitalist economics Adam Smith famously observed that a pin factory employing 10 specialists could produce 48,000 pins a day.

An individual who did all of those jobs working without specialised equipment could scarcely “with his utmost industry, make one pin in a day, and certainly could not make twenty”.

Harford says technology is turning us into generalists.

“Computers have made it easier to create and circulate messages, to book travel, to design web pages,” he says. “Instead of increasing productivity, these tools tempt highly skilled, highly paid people to noodle around making bad slides.”

It’ll matter for living standards

I could say worse about smartphones and the 140 (now 280) characters in Twitter.

They might be taking away more from our work-day output than they add to it.

This failure of ever increasing amounts of technology to do anything like what was expected matters because productivity growth is what we were counting on to drive economic growth and the ability of future generations to support increasing numbers of retirees.

Over four intergenerational reports the government has revised down its estimates of productivity growth and the size of the economy in four decades time. The next five-yearly report is due later this year.

– ref. Why productivity growth has stalled since 2005 (and isn’t about to improve soon) – https://theconversation.com/why-productivity-growth-has-stalled-since-2005-and-isnt-about-to-improve-soon-159706

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mathew Marques, Lecturer in Social Psychology, La Trobe University

The Apollo moon landings were faked, Lee Harvey Oswald did not act alone to assassinate JFK, governments are hiding the existence of UFOs.

These are some classic conspiracy theories that almost everyone has heard about, and a sizeable number of people agree with. But little research has investigated “homegrown” conspiracy theories in Australia and New Zealand, and what drives people in these countries to believe in conspiracies. Are we much different from conspiracy believers elsewhere?

Our new research published in the journal Political Psychology delved into “homegrown” conspiracy beliefs of everyday Aussies and Kiwis, shedding light on which ones we buy into and which we put in the “tin foil hat” basket.

What conspiracies to Aussies and Kiwis believe?

When it comes to specifically Australian and New Zealand conspiracies, we found a majority of people in both countries (56.7% of Aussies and 50.1% Kiwis) endorsed at least one of the ones we asked about.

Sporting conspiracy theories were the most believed. For instance, almost one third of Aussies believed the racehorse Phar Lap’s sudden death in San Francisco in 1932 was the result of poisoning by US gangsters.

Read more: Sport is full of conspiracy theories – Chris Froome’s horrific cycling crash is just the latest example

The most popular conspiracy theory amongst Kiwis was the All Blacks were deliberately poisoned prior to the 1995 Rugby World Cup final, which they narrowly lost to hosts South Africa.

These are relatively innocuous narratives that perhaps are not all that surprising, given how central sports are to national identity.

But there was also a sizeable minority of people (8-12%) who believed in darker and more sinister conspiracies, such as the Port Arthur and Christchurch massacres were false flag operations by government agents with the aim of further restricting gun ownership.

Also, troublingly, 20% of Australian respondents and 16% of New Zealanders believed their governments were covering up the health risks of the new 5G cellular network.

Why do people believe in conspiracies?

Conspiracies are found to be true on occasion, which renders them no longer “theories”. For example, in the 1960s and 70s, the CIA really did engage in secretive experiments to identify drugs to force confessions (Project MKUltra).

But what is surprising is the degree to which people seem to believe in unfounded conspiracies, especially given the lack of evidence.

Previous research has highlighted three potential motives for why people buy into conspiracy theories.

First, people may latch onto conspiracy theories as a way of understanding and explaining a chaotic world, drawing links between unconnected events to create a sense of certainty.

For example, studies show people who prefer an intuitive style of thinking — “going with their gut” — are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories, while those who engage in more deliberative, analytic thinking are less convinced.

Second, for some people, believing in conspiracy theories gives them a greater sense of safety and control over the unknown. Central to this is a distrust of the “other” — as in, different types of people or groups.

Some researchers have pointed to this being evolutionary — a psychological mechanism that aims to minimise the risk of threats from enemies and maintain a safe environment for one’s “tribe”.

Read more: In defence of conspiracy theories (and why the term is a misnomer)

Lastly, conspiracy theories may serve as a way for people to maintain a positive sense of self and their identity as a member of a social group. This meets a fundamental human need for belonging. For example, those who felt socially excluded have been found to be more likely to engage in conspiracies.

In our research, we found evidence for all three motives being associated with belief in conspiracy theories.

We asked participants a series of validated questions and looked at their associations with beliefs in conspiracies. Those who were more likely to endorse conspiracy theories were less analytical in their thinking, less trusting of others, or felt alienated from mainstream society.

What does this mean for combating conspiracies?

Research has shown that belief in conspiracy theories, on balance, is harmful to society. Climate change conspiracy theories can motivate people away from social action, while conspiracy theories about 5G telecommunications have been associated with support for violent tendencies.

Also, research shows people who believe in one conspiracy theory tend to believe in others.

Read more: How misinformation about 5G is spreading within our government institutions – and who’s responsible

Our other recent research shows people who engage in some kinds of conspiratorial thinking are also more likely to reject beneficial scientific innovations.

For example, those who believe in criminal conspiracies within governments and conspiracies related to restrictions on personal health practices and liberties are more likely to reject childhood vaccinations.

Trying to extricate friends and family from these webs of conspiracies can be difficult. But appealing to why they believe in them — rather than just what they believe — may be more effective at countering these beliefs.

Research suggests avoiding ridicule, showing empathy, affirming critical thinking and appealing to trusted message sources can help when talking to someone who believes in conspiracy theories.

We are currently planning and conducting further research to track people’s beliefs over time so we can pinpoint the key ingredients to their continued endorsement of conspiracies — and what convinces them to climb out of the rabbit hole.

We hope this will help counter the pernicious effects conspiracy theories have on societal cohesion.

– ref. Was Phar Lap killed by gangsters? New research shows which conspiracies people believe in and why – https://theconversation.com/was-phar-lap-killed-by-gangsters-new-research-shows-which-conspiracies-people-believe-in-and-why-158610

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cherine Fahd, Associate Professor, School of Design, University of Technology Sydney

In late November, I led a participatory performance, A Proxy for a Thousand Eyes, at the Sydney Opera House. Among the performers were three videographers and two photographers. Their role was to record a loosely choreographed routine of touching between myself and the participants who joined me at the specially designed, Covid-safe screens.

The pandemic has highlighted the desire and need for physical contact and the integral role touch plays in socialisation and well-being. COVID-19 has not only forced us to be physically apart but to perceive bodies — both our own and others — as risky.

Despite the risks, I was commissioned by the Sydney Opera House to respond creatively to the pandemic. My approach focused on social distancing and its alienating impact on communal gathering. Shielded by vinyl plastic, complete with the ritual of hand sanitising, I persuaded 50 people to act as my touching playmates on the day. Some were friends and acquaintances. Many were strangers.

Each participant was separated from me by a sheet of plastic. I stood on one side and they stood on the other. Despite the squeaking and slippery sensation of the plastic, I made sure the palms of our hands connected, our fingers and faces conjoined, the tips of our noses and lips caressed.

At the heart of this work is the desire to feel good. In a year of great uncertainty and grief, creativity has an enormous role to play in articulating the unspeakable, the unthinkable and what is often suppressed in traumatic times.

I wanted first and foremost for the participants to feel safe, to feel cared for and to trust me. And in return, to touch me so we could be together and safely apart.

The photographs and footage revealed the most tender encounters. An intimate and playful game of surrender is now a ten-minute video piece portraying touching as a form of public yearning.

Cherine Fahd’s ten-minute video piece Play Proximus will feature in Returning: Chapter 1 on Stream, part of Sydney Opera House’s new digital commissions launching on 30 April 2021 co-presented with the Japan Foundation Sydney.

An essay reflecting on this project will appear in Dystopian and Utopian Impulses in Art Making: The World We Want, edited by Grace McQuilten and Daniel Palmer, to be published by Intellect in 2022.

– ref. Yearning for touch — a photo essay – https://theconversation.com/yearning-for-touch-a-photo-essay-159704

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adam David Hines, PhD Candidate, The University of Queensland

Many of us will undergo general anaesthesia at some point in our lives — losing consciousness so we can be operated on painlessly. But although humans have used general anaesthesia for more than 150 years, we still don’t fully understand how it affects the brain.

To find out, we turned to a genus of stony coral called lobed brain coral (Lobophyllia). Using a unique fluorescent molecule present in lobed brain coral, we managed to isolate an important target of general anaesthetic drugs in fruit fly brains. Our findings could help develop safer anaesthesia for humans.

Glow-in-the-dark coral

Lobed brain corals are bioluminescent, which means they can naturally produce and emit light. They’re found in the Indian and Pacific oceans, alongside other similar scientifically valuable creatures such as the crystal jelly Aequorea victoria.

Bioluminescent ocean-dwellers have equipped researchers with a powerful toolkit of fluorescent molecules to study and track biological processes. They even inspired the Nobel Prize-winning discovery of the green fluorescent protein.

The fluorescent molecule found in the lobed brain coral, Eos, has a rather surprising feature: it can change colour. This lets scientists observe the movement of proteins within living cells — something that was previously impossible.

Imagine you have a Christmas tree covered with lights but they were all lit the same colour; the tree might appear a bit blurry from afar. If one of the lights were to switch to a different colour, however, you’d spot it easily.

The same principles apply when scientists try to track moving proteins in cells. Proteins perform multiple vital tasks for a cell and tracking them can help us understand their function, but they’re usually too small to see with regular microscopes.

Using the Eos molecule, we can develop super-resolution microscopes that reveal even the smallest elements within cells, including proteins.

A sleeping brain isn’t ‘inactive’

Anaesthesia today generally involves injecting a patient’s vein with a dose of a sedative drug and painkiller. For instance, the combination of propofol and fentanyl will make you unconscious and prevent you from feeling pain.

Sedative drugs, including sleeping pills, use your brain’s natural ability to put you to sleep. They target the circuits in your brain that regulate wakefulness and stop them from being active.

However, the brain activity of a sleeping person is very different to that of someone under anaesthesia. A sleeping brain performs many tasks and is quite active. A brain under anaesthesia is largely unresponsive.

Why aren’t we able to be woken up while under general anaesthesia? To find out, scientists need to identify what else in the brain, apart from sleep pathways, is targeted by general anaesthetic drugs.

Read more: Why our brain needs sleep, and what happens if we don’t get enough of it

Anaesthesia stunts the brain’s processing power

Neurons, the cells in the brain, communicate with each other through a process known as synaptic neurotransmission. This is the main way our brains process information.

For neurotransmission to occur, specialised proteins within neurons must release chemicals called neurotransmitters (such as dopamine or glutamate). Proteins are dynamic. They can move freely inside neurons and are often needed in different parts of the cell.

For our research, we took the Eos molecule and attached it onto a protein called “syntaxin1A” — which is responsible for facilitating neurotransmission — to see how general anaesthetic drugs might affect its normal function in the brains of fruit flies.

We found syntaxin1A dynamics were altered with general anaesthetic drugs such as propofol and isoflurane. The protein became trapped in clusters of proteins and its movement was therefore restricted.

This may have been what reduced the efficiency of neurotransmission, preventing the brain from processing complex information.

Read more: Gene editing is revealing how corals respond to warming waters. It could transform how we manage our reefs

A goal to develop new, safer drugs

Many proteins apart from syntaxin1A are involved in neurotransmission. So it’s likely others are also affected by anaesthetic drugs.

This new way to observe individual protein behaviour in intact brain tissue will hopefully uncover more drug targets and explain the precise mechanisms that underpin general anaesthetics.

Consequently, this knowledge will aid in the development of safer drugs with fewer side effects. And targeted drug development could help prevent the abnormally long recovery times observed in some patients who undergo general anaesthesia.

– ref. How lobed brain corals are helping solve the mystery of what general anaesthesia does to the brain – https://theconversation.com/how-lobed-brain-corals-are-helping-solve-the-mystery-of-what-general-anaesthesia-does-to-the-brain-159541

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Eddie Clark, Senior lecturer, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

Promised changes to New Zealand’s hate speech regulations have been slower to emerge than first anticipated. But a recently released cabinet paper finally gives some idea of what is being considered.

The proposals were originally intended to be made public by late 2019 in the aftermath of the Christchurch terror attacks. In the end, it took until December 2020 for the matter to get to cabinet.

The delay, however, meant officials and ministers had the report of the royal commission of inquiry into the attacks (released in November 2020) to guide them.

The resulting proposals pull in two different directions: on one hand tightening definitions of what qualifies as hate speech, on the other significantly broadening the categories to which it can apply.

What the law says now

New Zealand currently has no comprehensive hate speech laws. The closest are provisions within section 21 of the Human Rights Act 1993 which prohibit incitement of racial disharmony.

These make it a criminal offence for a person to publicly use language which is “threatening, abusive, or insulting” to a group of people on the basis of their “colour, race, or ethnic or national origins”, and which is intended to “excite hostility or ill will against, or bring into contempt or ridicule” that group.

This is punishable by a fine of up to NZ$7,000 or up to three months imprisonment.

Read more: The gender gap in Australia’s hate speech laws

The Human Rights Act also contains a civil liability provision allowing individuals to complain to the Human Rights Commission about incitement of racial disharmony. Unlike the act’s criminal provisions, this doesn’t require intent — it focuses only on the likely effect of such incitement.

A complaint to the Human Rights Commission might involve its mediation services in the first instance, but can also result in the matter being referred to the Human Rights Review Tribunal.

If the tribunal upholds the complaint, it can offer a variety of remedies, including ordering a person to cease the offending speech, undertake training or pay monetary damages.

What the proposed reforms would do

As part of its broader recommendations to promote social cohesion, the royal commission suggested some reasonably narrow changes to the existing Human Rights Act provisions:

• add incitement of disharmony on the basis of religion
• move the criminal offence to the Crimes Act 1961 and increase the penalty
• tighten the definitions within the provision.

The proposals in the cabinet paper would do all this, specifically increasing the punishment to a fine of up to $50,000 or maximum of three years imprisonment. This would put hate speech punishment in the same general league as making a false declaration or assault with intent to injure.

The language would also be revised to make it an offence to intentionally “stir up, maintain, or normalise hatred” against a nominated group through “threatening, abusive, or insulting communications, including inciting violence”.

This is narrower than the existing law, meaning speech intended to bring a group into “contempt or ridicule” would no longer be covered.

Read more: We tracked antisemitic incidents in Australia over four years. This is when they are most likely to occur

Where the cabinet paper goes significantly further than the royal commission is in its recommendation the new law be extended beyond race and religion to cover all categories protected under section 21 of the Human Rights Act. These include age, sex, disability, religion, race, sexual orientation, political opinion and a number of others.

The paper also proposes a similar expansion of the civil provision in the Human Rights Act (largely ignored by the royal commission), and adding a prohibition on incitement of discrimination.

It also proposes clarifying the grounds of discrimination to specifically include gender identity and sex characteristics.

A risk of over-reach

By and large, this is a measured proposal. The threshold for criminal liability is very high, requiring a high degree of animosity and an effect far beyond offending an individual.

Despite some claims to the contrary, the proposed laws would not cover (for example) the unkindness and rudeness implicit in casually mis-gendering a trans person.

But by including every ground of discrimination under section 21 of the Human Rights Act, there is some risk the proposed changes become overly broad. In particular, political opinion is an area in which robust, even hostile, debate is important, and there is potential for a “chilling effect”.

Reasonable people may well disagree on this and other aspects of the proposal. But at this stage the cabinet paper is just that — a set of proposals. A more detailed discussion document will be put out for public consultation. One would hope it will include a more precise draft of the proposed legislation.

Hate speech regulation is a fraught topic with important considerations on all sides. It deserves serious consideration and public debate before these proposals finally become law.

– ref. NZ’s hate speech proposals need more detail and wider debate before they become law – https://theconversation.com/nzs-hate-speech-proposals-need-more-detail-and-wider-debate-before-they-become-law-159320

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Lester, PhD candidate, University of Tasmania

Tasmanian Liberal Premier Peter Gutwein is gambling on an early election to cash in on his government’s popularity due to its management of the COVID pandemic. It is a reasonable strategy, given how voters in Queensland and Western Australia have rewarded their governments in recent months.

Gutwein announced the May 1 election on March 26 – a year earlier than it is due. This was possible because, while Tasmania has a four-year maximum term, it does not have a fixed term, unlike all other states and territories.

In 2018 the Liberals, under then-Premier Will Hodgman, were returned to government with a bare majority of 13 of the 25 members of the lower house. Gutwein took over the premiership following Hodgman’s resignation in January 2020.

Over the past three years, the majority government has at times looked shaky. This was typified by maverick Liberal Clark MP Sue Hickey winning the speakership ballot with the support of Labor and the Greens against her party’s candidate. She has since voted against government legislation and policy on a number of policy and social reform issues.

Five days before calling the election Gutwein informed Hickey she would not get Liberal re-endorsement for the next election. She resigned from the party, putting the government into minority.

Having engineered a minority government and, despite written assurances from Hickey and ex-Labor, independent MP Madeleine Ogilvie on confidence and supply, Gutwein then called the election to secure “stable majority government”. His reasoning was that this would keep Tasmania in safe hands for ongoing management of COVID.

Read more: Morrison’s ratings take a hit in Newspoll as Coalition notionally loses a seat in redistribution

A few days later, Ogilvie was endorsed as a Liberal candidate for Clark. This underlined the artificiality of the minority government argument.

Under Tasmania’s Hare-Clark proportional electoral system, five members are elected to each of five multi-member seats. These are Bass in the north, Braddon in the north west, Clark and Franklin in the greater Hobart and southern region, and the sprawling Lyons across the middle of the state.

Going into this election, the Liberals had 12 seats, Labor nine, Tasmanian Greens two and there were two independents.

In March 2020, before the pandemic, Labor leader Rebecca White was matching first Hodgman and then Gutwein as preferred premier.

However, that changed after Gutwein declared a state of emergency and the “toughest border restrictions in Australia”.

Like his counterparts in Queensland and WA, the hard-line stance was widely interpreted as keeping the state safe. Gutwein polled as high as 70% as preferred premier in opinion polls throughout 2020.

The election announcement caught Labor unprepared. The start of its campaign was sidetracked by factional battles over preselection of high-profile Kingborough Mayor Dean Winter for the seat of Franklin. It also had to deal with the resignation of state ALP president Ben McGregor from the campaign over crude text messages he sent to a female colleague some years ago.

The Liberals also have had their share of problems. Franklin candidate Dean Ewington was forced to resign when it was revealed he had attended anti-lockdown rallies against Gutwein’s policy. Ex-minister and now Braddon candidate Adam Brooks also faces police charges over alleged contraventions of gun storage law.

Tasmania has has three minority governments in the modern era. These are the 1989 Labor-Green Accord government, the 1996 Liberal minority government and the 2010 Labor-Green quasi-coalition government. In each case voters punished the major governing party at the following election.

Consequently, the prospect of a hung parliament is always a central election issue in this state. Both Labor and the Liberals have pledged to govern in majority or not at all. However, in their one campaign debate to date, both Gutwein and White indicated they would resign the leadership rather than lead a minority government. This seems to leave open the door for their replacements to take up negotiations to form government.

Federal issues and federal political leaders have had a minimal impact on the Tasmanian election. So far, Prime Minister Scott Morrison has not visited the state during the campaign, even for the Liberal campaign launch. Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese has visited twice, including for Labor’s launch.

While Tasmania’s economy has held up surprisingly well during the pandemic – due in no small part to Commonwealth JobKeeper and JobSeeker payments – the end of those payments is likely to have a negative impact on the state’s economy. Some have pointed to this as an underlying reason for going to an election early.

Concerns about delays to the roll-out of COVID vaccinations and the possible distraction from the key state Liberal campaign theme of management of the pandemic may be another reason for keeping federal ministers away.

Read more: WA election could be historical Labor landslide, but party with less than 1% vote may win upper house seat

For its part, Labor has campaigned on state Liberal failure to reduce hospital and housing waiting lists and the lack of action on a range of key infrastructure development promises made at the 2018 election. The opposition has also raised concerns about future budget spending cuts to fund high-cost COVID economic stimulus measures, TAFE privatisation and delays in replacing the Spirit of Tasmania ferries, which are vital for interstate transport, tourism and freight.

The Greens and key high-profile independent candidates such as Hickey and popular Glenorchy Mayor Kristie Johnston in Clark have raised concerns about government secrecy, ministerial accountability and the state’s weak laws on political donations and, associated with that, poker machine licensing reforms.

There have been no public political opinion polls so far during this campaign. However, successive surveys by Tasmanian pollsters EMRS throughout 2020 placed the Liberals as likely to win more than 52% of the vote state-wide.

Since, historically, a party winning anything over 48% is likely to secure majority government in Tasmania, if those polls are reflected in the election outcome on May 1, another majority Liberal government seems likely.

– ref. As Tasmanians head to the polls, Liberal Premier Peter Gutwein hopes to cash in on COVID management – https://theconversation.com/as-tasmanians-head-to-the-polls-liberal-premier-peter-gutwein-hopes-to-cash-in-on-covid-management-159526

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ivan Charles Hanigan, Data Scientist (Epidemiology), University of Sydney

Climate change not only poses enormous dangers to the planet, but also harms human health. In our study published today, we show some of the first evidence climate change has had observable impacts on Australians’ health between 1968 and 2018.

We found long-term heating is associated with changed seasonal balance of deaths in Australia, with relatively more deaths in summer months and relatively fewer deaths in winter months over recent decades.

Our findings can be explained by the gradual global warming associated with climate change. Over the 51 years of our study, annual average temperatures increased by more than 1°C in Australia. The last decade (2011 to 2020) was the hottest in the country’s recorded history.

If we continue on this trajectory, we’re likely to see many more climate-related deaths in the years to come.

What we did and found

Using the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, the Australian Bureau of Statistics and other sources, we gathered mortality data for people aged 55 and over between 1968 and 2018. We then looked at deaths in summer compared to winter in each year.

We found that in 1968 there were approximately 73 deaths in summer for every 100 deaths in winter. By 2018, this had risen to roughly 83 deaths in summer for every 100 deaths in winter.

The same trend, albeit of varying strength, was evident in all states of Australia, among all age groups over 55, in females and males, and in the three broad causes of death we looked at (respiratory, heart and renal diseases).

Hot and cold weather can have a variety of direct and indirect effects on our health. Winter death rates generally exceed those in summer months because infectious diseases, like influenza, tend to circulate more in winter. Meanwhile, heat stress can exacerbate chronic health conditions including heart disease and kidney disease, particularly for older adults.

But the gap between cold-related deaths and heat-related deaths appears to be narrowing. And when we compared deaths in the hottest summers with the coldest winters, we found particularly warm years increase the likelihood of seasonal mortality ratios approaching 1 to 1 (meaning equal deaths in summer and winter).

With summers expected to become hotter, we believe this is an early indication of the effects of climate change in the future.

Read more: Too hot, heading south: how climate change may drive one-third of doctors out of the NT

Our research is unique

Globally, our study is one of very few that directly shows the health impacts of climate change. Most other studies examine the effects of past weather or climate conditions on health and extrapolate these into the future based on projected climate change scenarios, with associated uncertainties. For example, demographic characteristics of the population are likely to change over time.

Climate change occurs slowly, so typically, we need at least 30–50 years of records to accurately show how climate change is affecting health. Suitable health information is seldom available for such periods due to a variety of challenges in collecting electronic health data (especially in low- and middle-income countries).

Further, long-term health trends can be influenced by numerous non-climate related factors, such as improvements in health care.

In our study, we used Australian mortality records that have been collected with remarkable consistency of detail and quality over the last half century. And by focusing on the ratio of summer to winter deaths within each year, we avoid possible confounding associated with, say, improvements to health care.

Read more: Seriously ugly: here’s how Australia will look if the world heats by 3°C this century

However, we were unable to consider some issues such as the different climate trends in small areas within each state/territory, or the effects of changing temperatures on different occupation groups, such as construction workers.

Our data also don’t allow us to account for the possible effects of people’s adaptation to warmer temperatures in the future.

Looking ahead

The changing ratio of summer to winter deaths has previously been identified as a possible warning sign of the impact of climate change on human health.

In one study on the topic, the authors found Australia may initially experience a net reduction in temperature-related deaths. That is, increased deaths from heat during summer would be offset by fewer deaths in winter, as winters become more mild.

However, they predict this pattern would reverse by mid-century under the business-as-usual emissions scenario, with increases in heat-related deaths outweighing decreases in cold-related deaths over the long term.

Our findings support these worrying predictions. If warming trends continue, it’s almost certain summer deaths will increase, and come to dominate the burden of temperature-related deaths in Australia.

We found the speed of change in the ratio of summer to winter deaths was fastest in the hottest years within each decade. This strengthens our conclusion we’re observing an effect of long-term climate change.

Read more: The rise of ‘eco-anxiety’: climate change affects our mental health, too

Besides helping to answer the question, “does climate change affect human health?”, we believe our findings should inform planning for climate change mitigation and adaptation. The implications are considerable for the planning of hospital services and provision of health care, as well as for emergency services, housing, energy supply, holiday periods and bushfire disaster preparedness.

– ref. More people die in winter than summer, but climate change may see this reverse – https://theconversation.com/more-people-die-in-winter-than-summer-but-climate-change-may-see-this-reverse-159135

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samantha Hepburn, Director of the Centre for Energy and Natural Resources Law, Deakin Law School, Deakin University

In case you missed it, a major A$1 billion energy deal between the Morrison and the South Australian government was revealed recently.

The bilateral deal represents a key driver for the national economic recovery from COVID. It promises to provide jobs in the energy sector and contribute to South Australia achieving net 100% renewables by 2030.

But there’s a big caveat: the agreement involves a joint commitment to accelerate new gas supplies into the east coast market.

With so much money on the table and other nations recently doubling down on climate commitments, let’s look at the good and bad bits of this landmark deal in more detail.

A gas-led economic recovery

The agreement was announced ahead of US President Joe Biden’s climate summit last week, which saw Australia spruik technology growth to cut emissions instead of committing to new climate targets.

In total, the federal government will contribute A$660 million and the South Australian government A$422 million towards the new deal.

Both governments have also agreed to a gas target of an additional 50 petajoules of energy per year by the end of 2023, and 80 petajoules by 2030. Their rationale is the need to improve energy security and reliability.

This focus on gas in the agreement stems from the federal government’s much-criticised, gas-led economic recovery plan, which argues new gas supplies are vital for future energy security.

Read more: Australia is at a crossroads in the global hydrogen race – and one path looks risky

In February, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission outlined a potential shortfall of 30 petajoules of gas for the east-coast market leading up to 2024. This shortfall could impact energy supply, and the federal government has used this to help justify opening new gas reserves.

However, nothing is certain — COVID has reduced global demand for gas so any shortfall will likely be deferred. Meanwhile, renewable technology and hydrogen production and use are rapidly advancing.

Bad: investing in gas

With the seismic shift in the economics of renewables over the past decade, investing in new gas supply is unnecessary and retrograde. In fact, it’s now more expensive to transition from coal to gas than from coal to renewables.

Read more: 4 reasons why a gas-led economic recovery is a terrible, naïve idea

For example, the cost of lithium ion batteries used for battery storage has fallen over the past decade by nearly 90%. But the cost of gas — both economically and environmentally — has steadily risen. This inevitably means means its role in the energy market will diminish.

Eventually, gas generators will be retired without replacement. Victoria’s March quarter data, for example, shows black coal generation volumes dropped by 9.5% and gas generation dropped by 43%. Meanwhile, rooftop solar went up 25%, utility solar up by 40% and wind power by 24%.

And at the end of the day, gas is still a fossil fuel. There are approximately 22 major gas production and export projects proposed for Australia. A report from The Australia Institute in September 2020 suggested that, if produced, these projects could lead to about half a billion tonnes of emissions.

If all potential gas resources in Australia were tapped, the report indicates it could result in emissions equivalent to three times the current annual global emissions.

Good: investing in critical infrastructure

The energy deal sets aside $50 million towards the new $1.5 billion electricity interconnector between South Australia and NSW. This is critical infrastructure that will allow South Australia, Victoria and NSW to share energy reserves.

Indeed, the Australian Energy Market Operator has reported in excess of 5,000 megawatts of renewable energy projects near the proposed interconnector. This means South Australian wind and solar could contribute more significantly to electricity generation in both Victoria and NSW.

In turn, this will have a positive effect on pricing. Forecasts suggest the proposed new interconnector could reduce power bills by up to $66 a year in South Australia and $30 in NSW.

The energy deal also reserves funding for “investment priority areas”, which include carbon capture storage, electric vehicles and hydrogen. For example, $110 million is allocated for energy storage projects. This level of funding will help develop a world-class hydrogen export industry in South Australia.

The verdict

The energy deal is a funding win for renewable energy and technology, with energy technology advancing much faster than anticipated. However, its focus on gas is environmentally and economically regressive.

It’s completely inconsistent with the powerful climate plan announced by the Joe Biden administration at the Climate Summit last week, which includes a pause and review of oil and gas drilling on US federal land and doubling energy production from offshore windfarms by 2030.

Read more: More reasons for optimism on climate change than we’ve seen for decades: 2 climate experts explain

In March, the European Union’s parliament voted in favour of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. This will impose a tariff on products being sold into the EU according to the amount of carbon involved in making them. The Biden administration in the US has announced a similar plan.

What’s more, the European Union and the US, as outlined at the recent Climate Summit, are planning to impose fees or quotas on goods from countries failing to meet their climate and environmental obligations. This may mean Australian manufacturers will end up paying for the governments failure to take rapid action to drive down emissions.

Bilateral agreements provide critical planning and funding for Australia’s energy progression. However, they should not prolong the use of fossil fuels under the guise of energy security. To do so undermines global climate change imperatives and hinders Australia’s progress in a new energy era.

– ref. This $1 billion energy deal promises to cut emissions and secure jobs. So why on earth is gas included? – https://theconversation.com/this-1-billion-energy-deal-promises-to-cut-emissions-and-secure-jobs-so-why-on-earth-is-gas-included-159342

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By S. Travis Waller, Professor and Head of the School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UNSW

Uber, Ola, Car Next Door, GoGet, Urbi and Shareabike have transformed the mobility experience for millions of people, but are just the tip of the looming iceberg of changes in transport. Globally, 93 million travellers use the Uber app on a monthly basis. More Australians use Uber (22.9%) than taxis (21.8%).

The public clearly has an appetite for mobility as a service (MaaS). People want to plan, book and pay for various forms of transport via a digital platform.

Read more: For Mobility as a Service (MaaS) to solve our transport woes, some things need to change

However, mobility service providers are actors in search of a stage. As with software, computing and entertainment, only when a properly designed and managed platform underpins all the services will the real transformation be unlocked.

The 3 pillars of the platform

MaaS is part of a broader evolution as novel technologies have driven the rapid transformation of products and offerings into collections of services. Smartphone applications rely on digital distribution platforms such as Google Play Store, Apple Store, Microsoft Store and Amazon Cloud. Similarly, the evolving technologies and mechanisms of mobility systems require a platform for distribution.

Read more: We subscribe to movies and music, why not transport?

The platform concept should include at least three key elements:

1. integrated ticketing and payment: user payments are managed in a uniform and adaptable manner across all providers

2. accessible, standardised regulations with open data: regulations and data are managed to be accessible/plug-n-play, secure and equitable

3. reputation management: reputations of providers and users are managed in a scalable, fair and efficient way.

If the platform is designed poorly, markets will be distorted, privacy will be violated, and escalating infrastructure costs will continue to burden taxpayers.

Moving towards integrated payment

Historically, the transport platform has simply been the physical networks – roads, walking paths, cycle paths, rail and so on – and the ancillary infrastructure such as stations, airports, ports, vehicle storage and parking. Governments must reimagine existing physical infrastructure as part of the mobility services platform.

Recent innovations have focused not only on infrastructure development – autonomous vehicle systems, for example – but also on managing existing infrastructure. For example, cities around the world have moved towards rail automation and smart ticketing for public transport (Opal, Oyster, Octopus and Myki cards). The smart cards market for public transport in the US alone was valued at US$57.2 billion (A$73.9bn) in 2018.

Setting up seamless payment across services is the first pillar of the platform needed to support mobility as a service. It removes a major barrier to entry for service providers and users.

Significant efforts to integrate payments are ongoing. The other two essential pillars of a MaaS platform require much more attention.

Mobility as a service is seen as a solution to various transport problems, particularly by reducing private vehicle use. Customers are being promised efficient door-to-door multi-modal travel through a single holistic application. In reality, the infrastructure to achieve this is not yet present.

Research has raised questions about its benefits, social impacts and governance. For instance, emphasising smaller-scale, more flexible mobility services in unideal environments can increase congestion and undermine urban planning goals.

Why regulation is essential

The value and risks the platform creates for mobility providers, users, disadvantaged groups and society must all be kept in mind. The aim should be to create a fair marketplace that enables participation, innovation, equity and quality service.

Read more: Billions are pouring into mobility technology – will the transport revolution live up to the hype?

The second pillar, accessible, standardised regulations with open data paradigms, will enable service providers to participate in a market that delivers societal benefits. Innovations by providers must conform to a common “plug-n-play” approach that meets the mobility needs of the community as efficiently as possible. Crowd-sourced data (such as from Google or TomTom), user demand data from travel cards and traffic volume data should be available in the one platform for all service providers.

This is a complex undertaking, and data privacy must be a core component. It calls for strong professional leadership.

A big part of the challenge is that civil infrastructure cannot be unified in the same way as IT infrastructure or cloud computing. Civil infrastructure, especially transport infrastructure, is also expensive to build and maintain over its long lifespan, so the MaaS platform must be able to help optimise existing infrastructure to meet public mobility needs.

Regulation based on the protection and service of society is the only way to achieve this. The regulatory framework must be standardised, fair and accessible. This means any service providers adhering to the standards can join (and leave) the market without “insider” barriers.

Balancing profit with public benefits

Though it is a difficult task, we should apply the “everything as a service” concept with clear standardisation and regulation to deliver equitable and sustainable transport services.

This also offers a way to integrate profit maximisation and social welfare within transport but also involving adjacent services such as parking.

In the rail industry, standardisation has enabled more commoditised heavy and light rail systems and vehicles. Commoditisation is a process that creates reliable nearly identical products – rail services in this case – in the eyes of consumers. They can choose between these competing products based on cost and which best suits their needs at the time. This process has improved the economics, safety, accessibility and technology of rail services.

Over the past decade, the European Commission has implemented laws and policies to create a Single European Railway Area. The goal is to revitalise the sector by creating a single market for interoperable rail services that are more innovative and competitive.

Managing reviews and reputations

Finally, reputation management is essential for a mobility infrastructure platform. Reviews and reputation management have been a driving force for Uber, Amazon, eBay, iTunes, Airbnb etc.

A user-driven reputational management system must be trustworthy, scalable and resistant to tampering and malignant reviews. Blockchain technologies could help build the required trust.

Mobility will increasingly be delivered as a service to travellers. New technologies combined with social awareness and strong professional leadership will all be needed to develop the platform.

This article was co-authored by Victor Prados-Valerio, a Senior Associate at the advisory firm TSA Management, who has been a project manager and senior rolling stock engineer on train, light rail and depot procurement projects in Australia and overseas.

– ref. All your transport options in one place: why mobility as a service needs a proper platform – https://theconversation.com/all-your-transport-options-in-one-place-why-mobility-as-a-service-needs-a-proper-platform-157243

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Arrivals from India are set to be cut further or flights suspended altogether by the federal cabinet’s national security committee when it meets on Tuesday.

It would be the second clampdown in less than a week on people coming from India, as the COVID crisis continues to escalate in that country, which on the latest figures is recording about 350,000 new cases a day.

Health Minister Greg Hunt on Monday said the national security committee would consider “whether the medical advice indicates that additional measures are required.

“And if those additional measures are recommended, we will take them with the heaviest of hearts but without any hesitation.”

Hunt said the meeting would also consider humanitarian support for India, including supplies of oxygen from the states.

“India is literally gasping for oxygen. And whilst we can assist with the national medical stockpile, their particular request is for […] the physical supply of oxygen.

“We are in a position to be able to supply non-invasive ventilators[…] We’ve reached out to the states who actually carry the supplies of oxygen,” he said.

The proportion of returnees from India among the COVID cases in quarantine rose sharply recently, prompting last week’s measures. A man who came back from India after getting married there was at the centre of the recent outbreak in Perth.

Last week national cabinet agreed to a 30% reduction in passenger numbers from India on government-facilitated flights during May, a delay of four of these flights from May to June, and a 30% cut in commercial flights direct from India.

But the worsening situation there and local pressure in Australia have forced a quick rethink.

Canada last week announced a ban on passenger flights from India and Pakistan.

Labor’s federal health spokesman Mark Butler said decisions “should be taken in accordance with public health advice”.

On Monday Western Australia Premier Mark McGowan announced the three-day lockdown ordered late last week would not be extended, although there will be transition restrictions.

In another round of the blame game McGowan – who has slashed the quota of overseas arrivals WA is willing to receive into quarantine – said at the weekend the states “have been shouldering all the load in hotels that were never built for this purpose now for 14 months.

“The simple reason the Commonwealth doesn’t want to do it is because it’s risk[…] and it’s work, and it’s hard.”

McGowan criticised the federal government for allowing too many people to travel overseas, and has also pressed for it to provide more quarantine facilities.

But Home Affairs Minister Karen Andrews said immigration detentions centres and defence facilities were not fit for purpose for quarantine.

Andrews also pointed to the restrictions announced after national cabinet last week on travel to high risk countries.

NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian criticised McGowan, saying cutbacks in WA quarantine placed more pressure on her state.

Butler said there should be a national quarantine system. “This is clearly a Commonwealth responsibility,” he said.

“Our quarantine system is in a mess and Scott Morrison has got to stop pretending that it’s not his job to fix it,” Butler said.

Hunt said: “My view is we actually have the best quarantine system, or at the very least the equal of the best, of any in the world”.

– ref. New clampdown on arrivals from India expected – https://theconversation.com/new-clampdown-on-arrivals-from-india-expected-159726

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Arrivals from India are set to be cut further or flights suspended altogether by the federal cabinet’s national security committee when it meets on Tuesday.

It would be the second clampdown in less than a week on people coming from India, as the COVID crisis continues to escalate in that country, which is now recording more than 350,000 new cases a day.

Health Minister Greg Hunt on Monday said the national security committee would consider “whether the medical advice indicates that additional measures are required.

“And if those additional measures are recommended, we will take them with the heaviest of hearts but without any hesitation.”

Hunt said the meeting would also consider humanitarian support for India, including supplies of oxygen from the states.

“India is literally gasping for oxygen. And whilst we can assist with the national medical stockpile, their particular request is for […] the physical supply of oxygen.

“We are in a position to be able to supply non-invasive ventilators[…] We’ve reached out to the states who actually carry the supplies of oxygen,” he said.

The proportion of returnees from India among the COVID cases in quarantine rose sharply recently, prompting last week’s measures. A man who came back from India after getting married there was at the centre of the recent outbreak in Perth.

Last week national cabinet agreed to a 30% reduction in passenger numbers from India on government-facilitated flights during May, a delay of four of these flights from May to June, and a 30% cut in commercial flights direct from India.

But the worsening situation there and local pressure in Australia has forced a quick rethink.

Canada last week announced a ban on passenger flights from India and Pakistan.

Labor’s federal health spokesman Mark Butler said decisions “should be taken in accordance with public health advice”.

On Monday Western Australia Premier Mark McGowan announced the three-day lockdown ordered late last week would not be extended, although there will be transition restrictions.

In another round of the blame game McGowan – who has slashed the quota of overseas arrivals WA is willing to receive into quarantine – said at the weekend the states “have been shouldering all the load in hotels that were never built for this purpose now for 14 months.

“The simple reason the Commonwealth doesn’t want to do it is because it’s risk[…] and it’s work, and it’s hard.”

McGowan criticised the federal government for allowing too many people to travel overseas, and has also pressed for it to provide more quarantine facilities.

But Home Affairs Minister Karen Andrews said immigration detentions centres and defence facilities were not fit for purpose for quarantine.

Andrews also pointed to the restrictions announced after national cabinet last week on travel to high risk countries.

NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian criticised McGowan saying cutbacks in WA quarantine placed more pressure on her state.

Butler said there should be a national quarantine system. “This is clearly a Commonwealth responsibility,” he said.

“Our quarantine system is in a mess and Scott Morrison has got to stop pretending that it’s not his job to fix it,” Butler said.

Hunt said “My view is we actually have the best quarantine system, or at the very least the equal of the best, of any in the world”.

– ref. New clamp on arrivals from India expected – https://theconversation.com/new-clamp-on-arrivals-from-india-expected-159726

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julia Erhart, Associate Professor, Screen and Media, Flinders University, Flinders University

Chloé Zhao has made history at the 93rd Academy Awards as the first Asian-American woman and first woman of colour to win Best Director. She won for Nomadland, which Zhao also edited, produced, and adapted as a screenplay (from the book by Jessica Bruder).

Only one other woman has ever won Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker in 2008. Zhao and fellow nominee Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) were just the sixth and seventh women to receive nominations.

This was one of a trifecta of above-the-line prizes that went to women. Fennell won Best Original Screenplay for Promising Young Woman and Zhao for Best Picture.

These three awards put women in the spotlight as never before. But filmmaking is a collective art. Women were also celebrated in technical areas where sexism and gender disparity are even more entrenched.

Michelle Couttolenc won an award for Best Sound (Sound of Metal) and Jan Pascale for Best Set Decoration (Mank). Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson made history as the first African-American winners in the category of makeup and hairstyling (with Sergio Lopez-Rivera) for their contributions to Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.

Women also accepted awards as film producers: Dana Murray won Best Animated Feature with Pete Docter (Soul), Alice Doyard won Best Documentary Short with Anthony Giacchino (Collette) and Pippa Ehrlich won Best Documentary Feature with James Reed (My Octopus Teacher).

This year, with shrinking audiences and pandemic restrictions, there was a bitter irony in the fact women won more Oscars, across new and highly visible categories, than ever before.

– Julia Erhart

Read more: How the Oscars finally made it less lonely for women at the top of their game

Best Picture

It’s no surprise Nomadland won Best Picture — it’s good, compelling stuff, and manages (like most Oscar contenders) to be formulaic to its core without appearing as such. In classic Hollywood fashion, beautiful images accompanied by derivative but affecting music reinscribe social and political history in the mode of melodramatic and intimate personal reflection.

Following “salt of the earth” Fern (Frances McDormand) on her journey through the American West, we experience her ups and downs, recognising the emotional impact the devastation of precarious employment has had on her. The brutal 21st century reality of disempowered (non-unionised) workers becomes fodder for a narrative focusing on an individual’s personal growth — including happily working for Amazon no less (it’s “good pay,” Fern says).

Still, it definitely works as a film, painting a starkly drawn but nuanced portrait of life in post-industrial America. It’s poetically charged in its understatement, and features excellent performances by McDormand and David Strathairn as her love interest.

It’s also better than most of its contenders, including the sophomoric Promising Young Woman and the irrepressibly dull Mank. The only exception is Judas and the Black Messiah: the best film nominated for an Oscar this year (if not the best film of the year).

-Ari Mattes

Acceptance speeches

To keep making and distributing movies over the past year has been an achievement in itself. Many speakers acknowledged colleagues who persisted in believing in film projects against a backdrop of ongoing adversity.

The movies nominated were a politically charged bunch. While presenters acknowledged the issues, winners largely allowed the movies to speak for their own politics.

There was mention of gun violence and slayings by police. H.E.R. (Best Original Song) proclaimed her role to “fight for my people”. Daniel Kaluuya (Best Supporting Actor) highlighted the spirituality and politics of the Black Panthers and said the work still to do was “on everyone in this room”. Mikkel Nielsen (Best Editing) did his bit for arts funding, praising the Danish Film School as his award vindicated support for it.

Best director Zhao praised those looking for the good in others, while Best Documentary winner Ehrlich credited courageous women “joining hands and fighting for justice”.

Generally, though, the acceptance speeches did not indulge in politicking. There was no direct mention of America’s 2020 election results, no Biden and nothing like the Trump mentions last year — just the art at hand.

-Tom Clark

Fashion

The intimate Oscars ceremony (with only 170 VIP guests at LA’s Union Station) meant a reduced red carpet. However, attendees made up for the lack of numbers by bringing colour, glamour and scale in what they wore.

The dress code asked for “a fusion of Inspirational and Aspirational”. After spending 2020 in our most comfortable garments, this return to in-person awards called for spectacle.

The majority of guests followed the directive. Sure, winning director Zhao opted for sneakers, but she wore them with her pale Hermès sweater dress and French braids and looked effortlessly cool. Musical director Questlove dressed up his rubber Crocs by making them gold.

Early arrivals at the event included some of the best dressed men of the night, including Coleman Domingo in shocking, delicious pink Atelier Versace; LaKeith Stanfield in custom Saint Laurent 70s jumpsuit by Anthony Vaccarello; and the adorable young Alan S. Kim in Thom Browne short suit, bow tie and four-bar socks.

Perhaps the strongest trend was volume: in skirts, sleeves and bows. Maria Bakalova’s white tulle Louis Vuitton seemed directly related to Bjork’s iconic swan dress of 20 years ago, as did Laura Dern’s marabou feather Oscar de la Renta.

Regina King was resplendent in a custom Louis Vuitton powder-blue butterfly dress, with huge, bejewelled winged shoulders. Sleeves were also exaggerated in Angela Bassett’s red Alberta Ferretti and Marlee Matlin’s sparkling yet sustainably made Vivienne Westwood.

Carey Mulligan’s gold Valentino two-piece, Nicolette Robinson’s black taffeta Zuhair Murad and Amanda Seyfried’s red tulle Armani Privé all came with skirts made for social distancing.

The most aspirational? Surely Zendaya in a canary yellow, Cher-inspired strapless Valentino with over US$6 million (A$7.7 million) of yellow Bulgari diamonds.

And the most inspirational: 73-year old Youn Yuh-jung making history as the first Korean woman to win an Academy Award for acting, wearing a navy gown by Egyptian designer Marmar Halim with Chopard jewels. Perfect.

-Harriette Richards

Best Acting

Anthony Hopkins won for The Father, and Frances McDormand for Nomadland. Fair enough. Both are stellar actors who bring a quiet intensity to their performances in these films.

Both have carved out a niche for themselves within the Hollywood machine playing these kinds of characters, with Hopkins becoming synonymous in the 21st century with the broken patriarch and McDormand with the quirky baby boomer.

Each could have played their role in their sleep, one suspects, with neither seeming particularly challenged from a craft perspective. But if there’s one thing you can depend upon when it comes to the Oscars, it is middlebrow polite predictability, and these are both obvious choices.

In contrast, Riz Ahmed offers a less polished but stranger and more interesting performance in Sound of Metal, as does Andra Day, who overacts in the lead role but nonetheless masters our attention in The United States vs. Billie Holiday.

-Ari Mattes

Read more: We asked two experts to watch The Father and Supernova. These new films show the fear and loss that come with dementia

Best Original Score

Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste’s win for their music for Soul in the Best Original Score category is unusual in at least three ways. First, Soul is an animated film, (the first to win as a soundtrack since Michael Giacchino’s Up in 2009).

Then there’s the fact that Soul is dominated not just by jazz music, but by jazz music played on screen — a genre rarely rewarded by the academy today. You’d have to go back to Round Midnight and Herbie Hancock in 1986 for something genuinely comparable.

Strangest of all, there’s a touch of category weirdness here. The academy rules state multiple composers on a single film are eligible only when they work closely together. That makes sense for Reznor and Ross, whose soundtrack careers can’t be meaningfully separated. But Batiste made markedly different music for Soul.

His is the film’s lively and virtuosic jazz often played on-screen by the film’s characters, while Reznor and Ross made ethereal, synth-heavy underscore for scenes set in the afterlife. In the end credits, Batiste — whose music does most of the heavy lifting in the film — isn’t even listed as composer. Instead, Pixar chose to list him with a “jazz compositions and arrangements by” credit.

Common sense prevailed this year, however, and perhaps it is time to rethink the Best Score eligibility rules. Of the other nominees, Terence Blanchard would have to feel hard done by after his wonderful music for a Spike Lee film (Da 5 Bloods) was overlooked again, while Emile Mosseri would be happy as a first time nominee despite his score for Minari arguably being the strongest of the bunch.

-Dan Golding

– ref. Oscars 2021: 5 experts on the wins, the words, the wearable art and a big year for women – https://theconversation.com/oscars-2021-5-experts-on-the-wins-the-words-the-wearable-art-and-a-big-year-for-women-159697

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Carissa Bonner, Research Fellow, University of Sydney

Between vaccine supply issues, confusion about the role of GPs, and changed advice for AstraZeneca, the Australian COVID-19 vaccine rollout is well behind schedule.

How can we make it easier for the majority of Australians who want to be vaccinated? Especially given all Australians over 50 years of age are eligible to be vaccinated from May 3 next week.

There are tangible things we can do now to help people understand the benefits and possible risks of COVID-19 vaccination, and get the vaccine quickly as soon as they’re eligible.

Improve understanding

We know communication about COVID-19 hasn’t met the needs of people with low health literacy or those who speak different languages. These groups are also more susceptible to misinformation so it’s vital we communicate well to them.

Here are some practical things we can do:

1. use standard terms: governments need to develop a national glossary for COVID-19 vaccination terms. This would standardise and simplify information for diverse communities. For example, the Department of Health provides a glossary for mental health terms, which can ensure patient information and translations for words like “care plan” are consistent

2. write for year 8 reading level: one study of COVID-19 information found government information in Australia, the US and UK was too complex for many people to understand; and it was worst for Australia. Online “readability” calculators can be used to check health information is at the recommended year 8 reading level. Real-time editing tools help writers avoid acronyms and uncommon words, and use shorter, simpler sentences

3. use supporting images: we can make sure text is supported by helpful images such as the vaccination timeline, rather than negative images like pictures of needles that may scare people.

Read more: Pictures of COVID injections can scare the pants off people with needle phobias. Use these instead

Improve access

We know vaccine supply is a challenge but we can still make sure every available vaccine dose is used as soon as possible.

Strategies to do this could include:

1. local vaccination: our COVID-19 testing model has been successful including pop up clinics in places where there have been localised outbreaks. But our vaccine distribution logistics are falling behind. The US has used community clinics, pharmacies and mobile field officers to vaccinate millions of people a day. While some testing clinics now offer vaccinations, we could be doing more to provide vaccines for free as locally as possible

2. national registry: registries can keep track of vaccine doses and notify people as soon as they’re eligible. This is done in childhood vaccination, and notification systems are used effectively for cancer screening programs. We could use the existing Australian Immunisation Register to track and promote COVID-19 vaccination

3. automated appointments: people could sign up for “opt out” appointments with their local GP or vaccination clinic. This means they would be automatically booked into an appointment as soon as they’re eligible and supply is available, or moved to an earlier appointment if there’s a cancellation. This pre-registration approach will reduce wasted vaccine doses when several doses must be used from the same vial in the same day.

Read more: How to really fix COVID-19 vaccine appointment scheduling

Improve motivation

Our research, published as a pre-print in February, shows motivation is a particular challenge for Australia. Many people perceive their individual risk of contracting COVID-19 to be lower given case numbers are so low, and many people therefore haven’t been as strict with distancing behaviours.

Even before the new risk of serious clots was identified with the AstraZeneca vaccine, the top barriers for getting the vaccine in 2020 were safety concerns and side effects, which may outweigh the individual risk of COVID-19 for some people.

But most Australians have high intentions to get vaccinated, and there are things we can do to maintain motivation:

1. explain benefits AND risks: rather than focusing on single cases of serious side effects, we need to balance information in the media. We can use simple graphics to help people consider how the rare risk of serious side effects weighs up against the serious complications of COVID-19 for their age group during a local outbreak — which could still happen any time

2. emphasise community benefits: since COVID-19 is well controlled in Australia, we can focus on emphasising the benefits to the community of getting vaccinated. This might help people understand why they should get vaccinated even though their individual risk might be low. Our research in 2020 found the top motivators were “to protect myself and others” and “belief in vaccination and science”. Even if a 25-year-old views their individual risk of COVID-19 complications as low, protecting family, friends, and wider society may be important to them

3. provide incentives: getting vaccinated as soon as someone’s eligible could be linked to financial incentives. This has been used for childhood vaccination where access to childcare rebates is easier with up-to-date vaccination, and health professionals are incentivised to address vaccination gaps. However, this needs to be done carefully to avoid the concerns of coercive policies.

More coercive options include: mandatory vaccination, such as for certain jobs; financial sanctions like fines; and movement restrictions, including requiring a “vaccine passport” for travel.

These may increase vaccination uptake, but there are ethical concerns because such approaches could undermine trust and increase inequalities.

Australian vaccination communication experts have argued against a mandatory approach, in response to a suggestion Prime Minister Scott Morrison made in August last year that a COVID-19 vaccine would be “as mandatory as you can possibly make it”, which he later retracted.

Read more: 5 ways we can prepare the public to accept a COVID-19 vaccine (saying it will be ‘mandatory’ isn’t one)

We could be doing much more to improve understanding, access and motivation among Australians right now. We need to ensure everyone has the information they need to get a COVID-19 vaccine as soon as they’re eligible.

– ref. Here are 9 ways we can make it easier for Australians to get the COVID-19 vaccine – https://theconversation.com/here-are-9-ways-we-can-make-it-easier-for-australians-to-get-the-covid-19-vaccine-159219

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Goldrick, Adjunct Professor in Naval and Maritime Strategy and Policy, Australian National University

After a five-day search, wreckage from Indonesia’s missing submarine KRI Nanggala has been discovered at a depth of more than 800 metres in the Bali Sea.

With no survivors from the 53-person crew — and no certainty the cause of disaster will ever be confirmed — the Indonesian Navy will need to decide how much effort it devotes to examining and salvaging the wreckage.

Footage from a deep catastrophe

Initial examination of the sunken vessel suggests the wreckage is in three pieces, with the boat’s hull and stern separated.

The Indonesian Navy (TNI-AL) has released video footage, taken by a remotely operated underwater vehicle belonging to the Singaporean Navy, which appears to show one of the fins mounted on the boat’s stern.

The other pictures may show sections of the interior, but it’s not immediately entirely clear exactly what part of the boat they are.

It took one year to find Argentinian submarine San Juan after it sank in 2017. Nanggala’s discovery so early in the search suggests the boat was near its last reported position. So whatever went wrong likely did so as the submarine was diving.

At this stage, it is impossible to know what triggered the incident. Causes could include a material or mechanical failure leading to catastrophic flooding of one or more compartments. It does not take much loss of buoyancy for a submarine to lose control of its depth.

There could have been a fire, something particularly feared by submariners in their enclosed environment. Or there could have been human error. Submariners, however, have very carefully developed and extensively drilled standard operating procedures. Material failure is the more likely cause.

Regardless of the trigger, the tragic fate of KRI Nanggala would have been sealed once it passed the depth at which its hull and fittings could not withstand the increasing pressure. There is no hard and fast figure for the exact depth at which this occurs.

Submarines such as Nanggala have an individual safe operating depth of at least 260m. What is known as the “crush depth” will be much more than that. But the risk of hull collapse increases very rapidly as depth increases. At 800m, Nanggala had no chance of surviving intact.

How much recovery is worth the effort?

Indonesian authorities hope to salvage Nanggala’s wreckage, according to reports. This is possible and there is some precedent for this. The United State’s 1974 mission codenamed Project “Azorian” involved the covert recovery (from much deeper water) of large components of a sunken Soviet missile-carrying submarine.

Nevertheless, bringing some 1,300 tonnes of metal back to the surface from a depth of more than 800m remains a formidable proposition. Only a handful of salvage organisations would even be capable of such a task.

It would also be very expensive. One could argue the resource-constrained Indonesian Navy has better things to spend its money on, including its remaining four submarines.

Furthermore, there is no guarantee the specific cause of the disaster will ever be discovered. Submarines are large and complex machines and the “black box” systems in aviation would not cover all the possible problems that might have arisen with Nanggala.

The best approach would be to follow up the initial video examination of the wreckage with a more detailed mapping of the wreck site and all the material strewn on the seabed. Coupled with the selective recovery of components, this could help provide some answers.

Read more: Submarines are designed to hide – so what happens when one goes missing?

Preventing future disaster

The Indonesian Navy will now be subjecting its own organisation to examination. However likely it is Nanggala experienced a material failure, there will still be a review of training standards and operational procedures.

The navy’s submarine arm has been challenged by its recent expansion from a force of two to five boats. There were new commissionings in 2017, 2018 and as recently as last month — with the first submarine to be assembled in Indonesia, the KRI Aluguro, accepted into service.

Nanggala’s equally elderly sister-ship, Cakra, which has been subject to a recent modernisation and refit, may be taken out of commission to minimise the chance of another accident. In any case, Cakra will be examined closely to see if there are any hitherto unrecognised problems with metal fatigue or other potential causes of failure.

Despite the benefit of a full refit and the “zero lifing” of many key components this involves, as well as the replacement of old systems, the Cakra has been in commission for just over 40 years. This is a long time.

Solidarity from across the globe

The loss of 53 sailors is a tragedy for Indonesia and its navy. All over the world, naval people and submariners in particular will be sharing Indonesia’s sorrow.

Submarine operations are inherently high-risk and are very demanding of every crew member. They require extraordinary levels of teamwork and absolute trust in the professionalism of everyone on board. So intense is this professional culture that, at times like this, an international solidarity manifests.

Apart from the immediacy and transparency of the Indonesian Navy’s management of the situation, it has been encouraging to see the readiness of other nations to provide immediate and effective assistance, and the speed with which they came together.

This was most clearly evidenced in the key role Singapore’s submarine rescue vessel played in the wreck’s discovery. But Australia, India, Malaysia, the United States and other countries were also quick to provide what help they could.

Read more: Lessons to learn, despite another report on missing flight MH370 and still no explanation

– ref. Indonesian submarine found: what might have happened to the KRI Nanggala in its final moments? – https://theconversation.com/indonesian-submarine-found-what-might-have-happened-to-the-kri-nanggala-in-its-final-moments-159703

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Goldrick, Adjunct Professor in Naval and Maritime Strategy and Policy, Australian National University

After a five-day search, wreckage from Indonesia’s missing submarine KRI Nanggala has been discovered at a depth of more than 800 metres in the Bali Sea.

With no survivors from the 53-person crew — and no certainty the cause of disaster will ever be confirmed — the Indonesian Navy will need to decide how much effort it devotes to examining and salvaging the wreckage.

Footage from a deep catastrophe

Initial examination of the sunken vessel suggests the wreckage is in three pieces, with the boat’s hull and stern separated.

The Indonesian Navy (TNI-AL) has released video footage, taken by a remotely operated underwater vehicle belonging to the Singaporean Navy, which appears to show one of the fins mounted on the boat’s stern.

The other pictures may show sections of the interior, but it’s not immediately entirely clear exactly what part of the boat they are.

It took one year to find Argentinian submarine San Juan after it sank in 2017. Nanggala’s discovery so early in the search suggests the boat was near its last reported position. So whatever went wrong likely did so as the submarine was diving.

At this stage, it is impossible to know what triggered the incident. Causes could include a material or mechanical failure leading to catastrophic flooding of one or more compartments. It does not take much loss of buoyancy for a submarine to lose control of its depth.

There could have been a fire, something particularly feared by submariners in their enclosed environment. Or there could have been human error. Submariners, however, have very carefully developed and extensively drilled standard operating procedures. Material failure is the more likely cause.

Regardless of the trigger, the tragic fate of KRI Nanggala would have been sealed once it passed the depth at which its hull and fittings could not withstand the increasing pressure. There is no hard and fast figure for the exact depth at which this occurs.

Submarines such as Nanggala have an individual safe operating depth of at least 260m. What is known as the “crush depth” will be much more than that. But the risk of hull collapse increases very rapidly as depth increases. At 800m, Nanggala had no chance of surviving intact.

How much recovery is worth the effort?

Indonesian authorities hope to salvage Nanggala’s wreckage, according to reports. This is possible and there is some precedent for this. The United State’s 1974 mission codenamed Project “Azorian” involved the covert recovery (from much deeper water) of large components of a sunken Soviet missile-carrying submarine.

Nevertheless, bringing some 1,300 tonnes of metal back to the surface from a depth of more than 800m remains a formidable proposition. Only a handful of salvage organisations would even be capable of such a task.

It would also be very expensive. One could argue the resource-constrained Indonesian Navy has better things to spend its money on, including its remaining four submarines.

Furthermore, there is no guarantee the specific cause of the disaster will ever be discovered. Submarines are large and complex machines and the “black box” systems in aviation would not cover all the possible problems that might have arisen with Nanggala.

The best approach would be to follow up the initial video examination of the wreckage with a more detailed mapping of the wreck site and all the material strewn on the seabed. Coupled with the selective recovery of components, this could help provide some answers.

Read more: Submarines are designed to hide – so what happens when one goes missing?

Preventing future disaster

The Indonesian Navy will now be subjecting its own organisation to examination. However likely it is Nanggala experienced a material failure, there will still be a review of training standards and operational procedures.

The navy’s submarine arm has been challenged by its recent expansion from a force of two to five boats. There were new commissionings in 2017, 2018 and as recently as last month — with the first submarine to be assembled in Indonesia, the KRI Aluguro, accepted into service.

Nanggala’s equally elderly sister-ship, Cakra, which has been subject to a recent modernisation and refit, may be taken out of commission to minimise the chance of another accident. In any case, Cakra will be examined closely to see if there are any hitherto unrecognised problems with metal fatigue or other potential causes of failure.

Despite the benefit of a full refit and the “zero lifing” of many key components this involves, as well as the replacement of old systems, the Cakra has been in commission for just over 40 years. This is a long time.

Solidarity from across the globe

The loss of 53 sailors is a tragedy for Indonesia and its navy. All over the world, naval people and submariners in particular will be sharing Indonesia’s sorrow.

Submarine operations are inherently high-risk and are very demanding of every crew member. They require extraordinary levels of teamwork and absolute trust in the professionalism of everyone on board. So intense is this professional culture that, at times like this, an international solidarity manifests.

Apart from the immediacy and transparency of the Indonesian Navy’s management of the situation, it has been encouraging to see the readiness of other nations to provide immediate and effective assistance, and the speed with which they came together.

This was most clearly evidenced in the key role Singapore’s submarine rescue vessel played in the wreck’s discovery. But Australia, India, Malaysia, the United States and other countries were also quick to provide what help they could.

Read more: Lessons to learn, despite another report on missing flight MH370 and still no explanation

– ref. Indonesian submarine: what might have happened to the KRI Nanggala in its final moments? – https://theconversation.com/indonesian-submarine-what-might-have-happened-to-the-kri-nanggala-in-its-final-moments-159703

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

This week’s Newspoll, conducted April 21-24 from a sample of 1,510, gave Labor a 51-49 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the previous Newspoll, four weeks ago. Primary votes were 41% Coalition (up one), 38% Labor (steady), 10% Greens (down one) and 3% One Nation (up one). Figures are from The Poll Bludger.

59% (up four) were satisfied with Scott Morrison’s performance, and 37% (down three) were dissatisfied, for a net approval of +22, up seven points. Anthony Albanese’s net approval fell five points to -3. Morrison led as better PM by 56-30 (52-32 four weeks ago).

In my article last fortnight, I suggested a backlash against political correctness was making sexual misbehaviour more acceptable. The Coalition and Morrison’s recovery in this poll appears to validate that argument.

Read more: Has a backlash against political correctness made sexual misbehaviour more acceptable?

The adverse publicity regarding vaccination problems may have been expected to damage the government. But as long as there are very few local COVID cases, it appears the general public will forgive the rollout issues.

There is likely to be a strong economic recovery from COVID, and this is a problem for Labor. The new Resolve poll had the Coalition and Morrison ahead of Labor and Albanese by over 20 points on both the economy and COVID. In March, the unemployment rate was 5.6%, well down from the peak of 7.5% last July.

Many on the left want Albanese to resign in favour of a more left-wing candidate like Tanya Plibersek. But the polling indicates Labor’s leadership is not the problem, Morrison’s popularity is. In fact, given Morrison’s ratings, the Coalition would normally be expected to lead by a substantial margin.

Outside election campaigns, most voters pay little attention to the opposition. So it’s what the government does that drives voting intentions and the PM’s popularity.

New pollster for Nine newspapers

The Resolve Strategic poll will be conducted monthly for Nine newspapers from a normal sample of 1,600 interviewed by online methods. The first sample included an additional 400 live phone interviews. Fieldwork will be conducted during the month.

Every two months, state polls of Victoria and NSW will be released. Since Newspoll stopped doing regular state polling in 2015, there have been virtually no polls of either state outside election periods.

No two party vote is given, but primary votes in the first Resolve poll, with fieldwork up to April 16, were 38% Coalition, 33% Labor, 12% Greens and 6% One Nation.

One Nation’s vote is far higher than in Newspoll, but analyst Kevin Bonham says Newspoll is only asking for One Nation in seats they contested at the last election. Bonham estimates the two party vote from these primaries as a 50-50 tie.

Respondents were asked to rate the party leaders’ performance in recent weeks. Morrison had a 50% good, 38% poor rating (net +12), while Albanese was at 35% good, 41% poor (net -6). Morrison led Albanese as preferred PM by 47-25.

Voters were asked which party and leader would be better at various issues. However, offering “someone else” as an option disadvantages Labor, particularly on environmental issues where the Greens do best. The Coalition and Morrison led Labor and Albanese by 43-21 on economic management and by 42-20 on handling COVID.

Essential and Morgan polls

In last fortnight’s Essential poll, Morrison had a 54-37 approval rating; his +17 net approval dropped five points from the late March poll.

The large gender gap in Morrison’s ratings that I discussed last fortnight remained: his approval with men was 61%, but 46% with women. This gap was 16 points in late March.

Albanese’s net approval was down four points from mid-March to +5, and Morrison led as better PM by 47-28 (52-26 in mid-March).

The federal government had a 62-17 good rating on its response to COVID (70-12 in mid-March). This reverts to about where its COVID response was before a spike in November. State governments also saw falls in their COVID ratings. If Labor had been in power federally, by 44-37 voters were confident that they would have dealt well with COVID.

While Essential continues to give the federal government strong COVID ratings, a Morgan SMS poll, conducted April 9-10 – after Morrison announced the AstraZeneca vaccine would not be recommended for those under 50 – had voters disapproving of Morrison’s handling of COVID by 51-49.

Less than a week before Tasmanian election, poll has Liberals at just 41%

The Tasmanian election will be held on Saturday. A uComms poll for the left-wing Australia Institute, conducted April 21 from a sample of 1,023, gave the Liberals 41.4%, Labor 32.1%, the Greens 12.4%, Independents 11.0% and Others 3.1%.

This poll is in marked contrast to the last publicly available Tasmanian poll: an EMRS poll in February that gave the Liberals 52%, Labor 27%, Greens 14% and 7% for all Others. I will have more details of the Tasmanian election in a post on Wednesday.

WA election upper house final results

At the March 13 Western Australian election, Labor won 22 of the 36 upper house seats (up eight since 2017), the Liberals seven (down two), the Nationals three (down one), Legalise Cannabis two (up two), the Greens one (down three) and Daylight Saving one (up one). One Nation (three seats in 2017), the Shooters (one) and the Liberal Democrats (one) all failed to return to parliament.

This is the first time Labor has won a majority of seats in the WA upper house. They won 60.3% of the vote in the upper house, slightly higher than their 59.9% in the lower house. Labor won 21 of their 22 seats on raw quotas, and needed very slight help for their fourth seat in Mining and Pastoral region.

Read more: Labor obliterates Liberals in historic WA election; will win control of upper house for first time

Labor lost two seats they should have won to Legalise Cannabis under the Group Ticket Voting (GTV) system. That gave Legalise Cannabis double the seats of the Greens despite less than one-third of the Greens’ statewide vote (2.0% vs 6.4%).

The most ridiculous result occurred in the Mining and Pastoral region, where Daylight Saving were able to win a seat on just 98 first preference votes and 0.2% of the statewide vote. This occurred owing to both GTV and malapportionment. Every one of WA’s six regions elects six members, even though the Agricultural region has just 6% of enrolled voters and the Mining and Pastoral region 4%.

ABC election analyst Antony Green’s final lower house two party estimate is that Labor won by an Australian record for any state or territory of 69.7% to 30.3%, a 14.1% swing to Labor from what was already a thumping 2017 victory.

– ref. Coalition and Morrison gain in Newspoll, and the new Resolve poll – https://theconversation.com/coalition-and-morrison-gain-in-newspoll-and-the-new-resolve-poll-159628

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Fullagar, Professor of History, Institute for Humanities and Social Sciences, Australian Catholic University

This week, the Philippines is marking a significant event in the history of European colonialism in the Asia-Pacific region — the 500th anniversary of the death of Portuguese explorer Fernão de Magalhães (more commonly known as Ferdinand Magellan).

The Philippines government is hosting a series of events to mark the role that Indigenous people played in Magellan’s contested first circumnavigation of the earth in the 16th century.

European history books celebrate the expedition as a three-year Spanish-led voyage, carrying 270 men on five ships. But Filipino commemorations remind audiences that Magellan died halfway through the expedition in the Philippines and that only one ship with just 18 survivors limped home to Seville.

In particular, Filipinos remember how Lapu Lapu, the datu (leader) of the island of Mactan, inspired a force of Indigenous warriors to defeat Magellan’s crew — and the Spanish threat to their sovereignty — on April 27, 1521.

The Filipino commemorations show what an Indigenous-centred government approach to imperial history in the Pacific can look like. They also sit in stark contrast to the exhibitions, reenactments and publications that marked the 250th anniversary of James Cook’s arrival in Australia and New Zealand in recent years.

These commemorations mostly upheld the unique bravery of the British navigator, sidelining potentially deeper discussions of the violence to Indigenous people he and his crew also brought.

What happened to Magellan in 1521

Magellan reached what are now the Philippines in March 1521 after an arduous 100-day Pacific crossing. He set about using a combination of diplomacy and force to get local leaders and their followers to convert to Catholicism and submit to the authority of the far-away Spanish king.

Rajah Humabon of Cebu and other local rulers embraced an alliance with the Spanish, hoping to gain an advantage against their rivals.

Read more: 500 years after Ferdinand Magellan landed in Patagonia, there’s nothing to celebrate for its indigenous peoples

Magellan decided to attack Mactan, however, when Lapu Lapu refused to negotiate. About 60 European sailors and soldiers joined forces with Humabon and attacked Mactan at dawn, but they were met on the beach by Lapu Lapu and his armed warriors.

Weighed down by their armour, the Europeans stumbled in the shallows under arrow fire. Filipino folk histories say that an army of sea animals were also part of the resistance. Octopus wound their tentacles around the legs of the invaders, dragging them to their deaths. The battle was over within an hour.

Celebrating the victory at Mactan

The events organised by the Filipino government’s National Quincentennial Committee to mark Magellan’s death include a drone show, military parade and the televised unveiling of a new shrine to Lapu Lapu. All of these commemorations are designed to pay “tribute and recognition to Lapu Lapu and the Mactan heroes”.

The NQC also sponsored a national art competition centred on four themes connected to the Mactan victory — sovereignty, magnanimity, unity and legacy.

Matthius B. Garcia’s painting, Hindi Pasisiil (Never to be Conquered), recently took the grand prize in the “sovereignty” category.

In his work, the viewer’s eyes are drawn to the strong figure of Lapu Lapu. He is covered in Visayan tattoos and wears the bright red bandana and thick gold chains of a warrior and ruler. He leaps into the centre of the canvas, kampilan (sword) raised above his head, leading the charge of men rushing at the European invaders.

Magellan and his men, decked out in armour over puffy sleeves and stockings, fall over each other and into the sea to their deaths.

The artwork is Indigenous-centred because it was crafted by a Filipino artist for a Filipino audience. It is telling the story of what happened at Mactan from the point of view of the locals rather than the strangers.

Ordinary Filipinos have also been sharing their own artistic representations of the battle of Mactan on the NQC’s Facebook page, such as 5-year-old Miguel Alfonso Manzano Noriel’s painting, entitled The Battle of Mactan, below.

The NCQ has also encouraged children to print paper doll figures of Lapu Lapu and Magellan so they can re-enact the battle of Mactan at home.

In contrast to Garcia and Noriel’s fiery scenes of mayhem, the winning entries in the art competition’s “magnanimity” section remember the compassion that Filipinos showed to the explorers.

In Romane Elmira D. Contawi’s prize-winning painting, a local man holds out fruit to a bedraggled, hollow-eyed white man. The work illustrates the key role locals played in the expedition, giving provisions to Magellan’s fleet and sharing their expert knowledge on surviving the dangerous seas.

Remembering Cook in Australia and NZ

From 2018–20, the Australian and New Zealand governments also sponsored events related to a significant anniversary of European incursion into their lands — the arrival of Cook’s ship, the Endeavour, in 1769–70.

Some did aspire to take an Indigenous-centred viewpoint. But the majority ended up pushing, at best, a “shared histories” approach. They encouraged audiences to consider “both sides” of the beach when the Endeavour docked on Indigenous shores.

Read more: Explorer, navigator, coloniser: revisit Captain Cook’s legacy with the click of a mouse

National institutions in Australia held exhibitions entitled “Cook and the Pacific” or “Cook and the First Australians”. The New Zealand centrepiece event was a six-vessel flotilla — three European, three Pasifika — that stopped off at 14 communities to instigate “a balanced telling of a shared Māori and Pākehā history.”

In these performances, Cook was made to forego some of the limelight, but never to step off his pedestal entirely.

Other memorials did not achieve even this fuzzy sense of mutuality. Pre-existing statues of Cook, for instance, not only remained standing through the anniversary years, they were often protected from being defaced. In the case of the Cook statue in Sydney’s Hyde Park, this came in the form of dozens of police officers.

Decolonised public histories

The Philippines’ approach to a more Indigenous-focused and critical form of public history is imperfect. The government has come under attack for silencing “unpatriotic” criticism” of national leaders today — and in the past.

And the government was criticised for its handling of the death of another Ferdinand – the Philippines’ former president Ferdinand Marcos, who ruled the country through martial law for nearly a decade. He was given a hero’s burial to the outrage of many.

Similarly, public histories that happily remember 16th-century rebellions against Spanish conquistadors so as to “uplift the cultural confidence of the Filipino people” can render invisible some modern Indigenous struggles for autonomy, particularly in the Philippines’ Islamic south. There is only room for patriotic versions of the country’s history that emphasise unity.

Read more: Cooking the books: how re-enactments of the Endeavour’s voyage perpetuate myths of Australia’s ‘discovery’

Despite these serious concerns, the Filipino approach to the era of European expansion offers a refreshing contrast to the dominant stories about Cook in Australia and New Zealand. It is not simply adding in Indigenous voices or awarding Indigenous people co-star status on commemorative occasions.

Rather, the Filipino attitude to Magellan flips colonial history on its head by focusing on Indigenous resistance.

The promise of decolonised public histories in the Pacific is not to punish, shame or settle scores. It is instead intended to help forge as-yet undreamed futures for the region that place original sovereigns at their heart.

– ref. Ferdinand Magellan’s death 500 years ago is being remembered as an act of Indigenous resistance – https://theconversation.com/ferdinand-magellans-death-500-years-ago-is-being-remembered-as-an-act-of-indigenous-resistance-158226

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Benjamin Isakhan, Professor of International Politics, Deakin University

At least 82 people are dead after a horrific fire swept through the COVID intensive care unit of one of Iraq’s main hospitals over the weekend. The Iraqi prime minster has suspended the nation’s health minister over the incident.

It’s been reported the blaze began when an accident caused an oxygen tank to explode at Ibn al-Khatib Hospital in Baghdad. According to media reports, the hospital “had no fire protection system and false ceilings allowed the flames to spread to highly flammable products”.

The tragedy, which saw COVID patients taken off ventilators as they attempted to flee, speaks volumes about the state of Iraq’s dilapidated health system.

Corruption, sanctions, conflict and years of brain drain have led to widespread systemic problems in many sectors, including health.

Read more: How the 2003 Iraq invasion devastated the country’s health service

A healthcare system under strain from decades of sustained shocks

The recent tragedy at an Iraqi hospital is not at all surprising when you trace Iraqi history and politics over the last few decades.

This begins with the authoritarian rule of the Ba’ath party from 1968 and under Sadaam Hussein from 1979. After the Gulf War of 1991, sanctions crippled the country and the health sector in particular. It became very difficult to get medicine, equipment and training.

If things were bad then, it got a whole lot worse after the 2003 invasion of Iraq, which unleashed waves of violence and political bickering. The consequences are still being felt today.

There was also a huge brain drain effect, which saw a lot of their best doctors and health administrators leave for other countries where pay and conditions were better.

And an already struggling Iraq was torn apart by the horrors unleashed by the Islamic State from 2014, an extremely aggressive and organised terrorist cell that, at one point, controlled more than a quarter of the country.

A lot of money, time and people had to go into fighting the Islamic State instead of making progress helping the system recover from previous shocks.

Then, reeling from all those crises, COVID hit — and hit hard. The vaccine has been rolled out with varying degrees of success.

But by then, hospitals were struggling with a health crisis it was never in a position to handle in the first place.

Corruption trickles into every part of Iraqi life, including healthcare

However, probably the biggest cause of the recent hospital tragedy is widespread corruption. It has emptied state coffers and crippled investment in important public infrastructure like hospitals.

Iraq is one of the most resource rich countries in the world, producing billions of dollars of oil each year. But, especially since 2003, much of this wealth has been siphoned out of the public pocket.

However, the state has been too weak to properly prosecute corruption, and for ordinary people this has affected everything from education to electricity provision, health services to not having potable water in your home.

This has relevant flow-on effects. Fire safety in a hospital is under resourced and comes very low on the list of problems to solve. You get hospitals with insufficient capacity to deal not only with COVID but an unexpected event like a fire. There may be insufficient training or systems in place to reduce fire risk or cope when one occurs. It’s not as though one instance of corruption caused this horrible fire but it’s easy to see how the broader problems of corruption can allow a situation like this to happen.

Read more: Iraq must now rebuild itself – and that means fixing its dreadful governance

The prime minister is limited in what he can do

Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi has suspended Health Minister Hassan Al-Tamimi and Baghdad Governor Muhammad Jaber over the fire and ordered an investigation. I think that is probably a good move; if issues such as malpractice, corruption, neglect or insufficient funding or training were implicated in the fire then that will come out in the investigation.

The prime minister is largely seen as a man who listens to the people, so he is acting in response to public outcry over the fire.

However, it doesn’t solve the broader problems and you can’t just keep replacing people (other ministers have been suspended in the past over different scandals, yet problems persist).

What’s really needed is sustained, good governance that gradually erodes the power of corruption, inefficient governance and nepotism.

The current prime minister seems to be very determined to fight corruption and doesn’t stand for poor governance. But he is limited in what he can do; it’s hard to have an efficient government when you have people with allegiances across different places, some of which are linked to foreign interference.

The recent visit of the Pope to Iraq marked a moment of hope in the country’s history, with many seeing it as an opportunity to start a new chapter of change. It remains to be seen to what extent that hope can be realised.

– ref. Baghdad hospital fire: what happened and what it tells us about Iraq’s health system – https://theconversation.com/baghdad-hospital-fire-what-happened-and-what-it-tells-us-about-iraqs-health-system-159700