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Christchurch Hospital staffing ‘like moving the deck chairs around on the Titanic’, worker says

Source: Radio New Zealand

RNZ / Nate McKinnon

Christchurch Hospital is working on ways to manage an expected influx of patients sick with winter illnesses like Covid-19 and the flu, as the nurses’ union warns the emergency department is already bursting at the seams and understaffed.

The Nurses Organisation said the hospital hit 108 percent capacity on Monday morning, with ED a pinch point.

Union delegate and Christchurch Hospital healthcare assistant Al Dietschin said the ED was seeing more than 400 patients per day, some of whom had to wait in corridors.

“It’s been chronic for some time the busyness. We haven’t seen numbers drop over summer it’s been kind of relentless. That just puts so much pressure on the workforce and obviously affects patient care,” he said.

“It’s horrendous but unfortunately it seems to be the new normal.

“On the ground what it looks like in ED is an overwhelmed department where patients are waiting in corridors. We get a situation when the wards are all so full you can have a bed lock occur.”

Otago University Professor Michael Baker said New Zealand was in its ninth Covid-19 wave, with hospitalisations and deaths climbing.

Otago University Professor Michael Baker. supplied / Otago University Wellington

Wastewater analysis from PHF Science showed the number of cases was at its highest rate for more than six months and the latest Health New Zealand figures showed there had been 50 hospitalisations and 19 deaths with the virus in the past week.

Covid-19 was filling up hospitals, and everyone needed to “act to reduce impact”, Baker said.

Dietschin there were too few staff at Christchurch Hospital for the number of patients and the situation would only get worse over winter.

“It’s quite scary because staff get sick as well and that just increases the short staffing. It just causes sort of a rationing of care which then contributes to the moral injury and burnout of staff,” he said.

He said staff were being regularly redeployed from one area of the hospital to another to meet the shortage.

“It’s kind of a bit like moving the deck chairs around on the Titanic,” he said.

“We’re short of RNs [registered nurses], we’re short of healthcare assistants, we’re short of doctors, we’re short of midwives and Te Whatu Ora and this government don’t seem to be addressing it. We need a massive increase in funding in public healthcare.”

The union had been in bargaining with health authorities over safe staffing levels for 18 months, Dietschin said.

“The increase in presentations within the ED department, that’s partly a result of primary healthcare that’s failing, where people aren’t being caught early so they become more acutely unwell and present in ED,” he said.

Health New Zealand said Christchurch’s ED was busier than usual at the end of the weekend, but put that down to acute trauma demand rather than staffing shortages. RNZ / Nate McKinnon

Health New Zealand Canterbury operations group director Hamish Brown said Christchurch’s ED was busier than usual at the end of the weekend.

“Our team saw an average 423 patients over the weekend (394 on Saturday and 451 on Sunday), which is 22 patients more compared with the previous weekend and 35 more compared to the same time last March,” he said.

“This pressure was primarily related to acute trauma demand affecting the emergency department and wards rather than staffing shortages.

“We had, and continue to have, staff to cover to meet demand, and our teams actively managed the situation to minimise any impact on care. At very busy times there may be some waits for a bed space to become available, however patients are only discharged when they are well enough.”

Brown said anyone who needed urgent or emergency care should come to ED without delay or call 111.

“We encourage those with non-urgent concerns to consider other options for access to acute care, including the free Healthline (0800 611 116) to speak to a registered nurse, or local GPs, healthcare providers and community pharmacies,” he said.

Initiatives had been put in place or were being worked on at the hospital to help manage the anticipated high winter demand for illnesses like Covid-19, flu, and other respiratory conditions, Brown said.

Kidney patients in Christchurch were also being warned dialysis treatment may have to be rationed because of staffing shortages and a lack of space at the hospital.

In a letter to patients and seen by RNZ, the hospital’s kidney department said some patients might be asked to change treatment days, times or locations to manage the pressure.

Dr Curtis Walker from the Board of Kidney Health New Zealand told Morning Report it was a difficult situation.

“It’s incredibly disruptive for patients. I’ve got patients on dialysis who are trying to run a business, who are trying to get kids to school, trying to look after elderly parents and the last thing they need is even more uncertainty in what’s already a pretty challenging treatment,” he said.

“Most patients need three dialysis sessions a week and if they don’t they start to feel unwell or even worse they can get fluid build up or potassium build up and that can have fatal consequences.”

Dr Curtis Walker from the Board of Kidney Health New Zealand. RNZ / Karen Brown

Walker says dialysis demand was placing stress across the country and was projected to get worse.

“There are 12 main dialysis units in New Zealand and all of them are under stress and strain,” he said.

“All of them say they can’t dialyse all their patients according to the patient’s preference, all of them report a lack of physical capacity and funding and over half have said we’ve had to reduce hours or delay dialysis when patients start dialysis.”

Brown said Health New Zealand was considering options for addressing the problems at the Christchurch unit.

“In 2024, an existing inpatient room was repurposed to add four further dialysis chairs. Longer term options include building a new unit, or re-purposing an existing larger space as well as exploring chairs in more remote sites such as Ashburton, so dialysis care can be provided closer to home for those patients,” he said.

“Advertising for a senior medical officer and approximately six FTE nurses is already underway to meet the immediate need for extra sessions for dialysis in Canterbury.”

Heath New Zealand acknowledged kidney disease was a growing challenge nationally and said it was working to strengthen renal care, increase capacity and improve early detection.

Over the past year it had increased dialysis shifts in several high-demand regions and invested in new and upgraded dialysis units, including the new $40 million Waikato Renal Centre.

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Cyclists frustrated by drivers illegally parking on Auckland’s cycle lanes

Source: Radio New Zealand

Two vehicles parked on the cycle lane on Orly Avenue near Māngere town centre. RNZ / Luka Forman

A South Auckland man who was hit by a car while cycling believes drivers illegally parking on cycle lanes is a safety issue in the area.

He said during busy periods some cycle lanes were clogged up with cars, forcing cyclists onto the road or footpath.

A cycling advocacy group said it was an issue right across Auckland.

Māngere man Selwyn Lilley knows the danger cars pose to cyclists – he was hit by one while coming around a roundabout near Māngere town centre on his bike.

“This car came up from Bader Drive and collected me. So I was lucky… got out of it with just with a couple of cracked ribs and a chipped pelvis. But I spent three weeks on crutches.”

Lilley no longer cycled for fear of being hit again.

There were now several cycleways covering the area around Māngere town centre, but Lilley said drivers parking over the lanes were causing problems for cyclists.

Some days it might be one or two cars, he said, but on busy weekends or when there was an event on nearby, whole streets could be clogged up.

“If you have car after car after car where the road is pretty busy. They don’t take any notification. Then they honk at you and say ‘use the cycle lane that’s what it’s been built for’.

“Most people would turn around and say ‘hey, we’ll use the cycle lane but you cars are in the way’.”

Manukau councillor Alf Filipaina. RNZ / Felix Walton

Manukau councillor Alf Filipaina said part of the problem was that there were not enough carparks for families living in new apartments in the area.

“You’ll see a lot of the cars parking on the verge, because they don’t have sufficient car parks … especially when you’ve got multiple families in there.”

“Hopefully we’ll have an alternative – I know they want to get people out of their cars but when you’ve got the car that’s for all the family members, there’s no option.”

Filipaina wanted a community campaign to encourage people to make use of the cycle lanes in the area.

“Let’s use some of our community people to sort of let them know the benefits. But also realise that sometimes we just can’t get the bikes for the kids for them to use the cycle lanes.”

Co-chair of Bike Auckland Karen Hormann said people parking on bike lanes was a problem right across the city.

“It’s forcing people riding bikes, expecting the protection of a cycleway, to be forced out into the traffic. It’s actually really unsafe.”

Co-chair of Bike Auckland Karen Hormann. Supplied

It was important to keep on top of the issue because getting people onto different modes of transport was the only way to improve congestion in Auckland, she said.

“Auckland is very congested. And drivers are getting frustrated. They’re also parking on footpaths and berms and blocking people’s access. We really need to allow for all of these different mobility modes.”

Auckland Transport (AT) head of transport and parking compliance, Rick Bidgood, said enforcement with consequences was the only real way to deal with the problem. The fine for parking on a cycle lane was $70.

As cycling was relatively new to Auckland compared to European cities, it would take time for people to recognise it as a real form of transport, Bidgood said.

AT head of active modes Tania Loveridge said when the new stretches of cycleway were being built in Mangere, it ran a targeted communications campaign edcuating people about changes to parking.

There had been an average five percent growth per year in cycling across Auckland over the past three years, Loveridge said.

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

KiwiSaver balances wobble: Is this time different?

Source: Radio New Zealand

Markets have been volatile this week as they digest the impact of the war in the Middle East. RNZ

Worried KiwiSaver members are asking: is this time different?

Markets have been volatile this week as they digest the impact of the war in the Middle East.

But some investors have been concerned the warnings of economic disruption could mean more pain to come for their KiwiSaver balances.

One woman who wrote to RNZ said she was 64 and worrying about her KiwiSaver balance falling.

“I am out of work due to illness and have no other income or support from the government … I am really counting on this money. I’m worried not much will be left.”

KiwiSaver managers say – as ever – the volatility is the price that investors pay for the returns they get on the other side, and for most people, sticking with their investment strategy is the best plan of action.

ASB chief investment officer Frank Jasper said the bank was fielding some inquiries.

“People obviously seeing headlines, especially [Monday] seeing some pretty dramatic market moves and asking questions around what’s going on.”

Jasper said, while riding it out was usually the best course of action, a downturn in markets could sometimes highlight a personality mismatch for investors.

“We do all of this risk profiling when we go into KiwiSaver and we get asked about our attitude to risk.

“And then we live through these experiences and they are visceral experiences, that really test your genuine attitude towards risk.

ASB chief investment officer Frank Jasper. Supplied / LinkedIn

“I think for some people, it’s a learning opportunity … And they realise ‘when I actually experience it, I realise that it does affect me a bit more than I thought’ … every time there’s a dramatic market move, despite the fact the long-term evidence suggests the world gets through it and we do recover, there’s a scenario you can paint where things get worse.

“Sometimes people will lean heavily on that ‘things will get worse’ scenario. Sometimes they will be right, but most of the time the world returns to normal and things are okay.”

He said, since 2009, the S&P500 had fallen more than 5 percent 32 times and continued to record all-time highs through that period. “It’s just a feature of the market.”

He said it typically took 47 days for the market to recover from a shock.

‘And then within 12 months, about 68 percent of the time, the market is higher than it was 12 months ago.”

He said persistently negative markets would usually come only when a shock become a macroeconomic crisis.

But Jasper said it was a good opportunity for people to think about whether their fund was a match for their emotional ability to cope with risk, not just their investment time horizon.

“It’s very easy to think you are relaxed if there are drawdowns or relaxed if there are shocks in the markets. It’s only living through these experiences you get to actually genuinely test what your attitude to risk is. For some people, they will experience this and go ‘you know what? I don’t sleep well at night and I’m genuinely uncomfortable about this’.

“For those people, it may be very rational to think about a different risk profile over time. But for others they’ll go ‘I’ve got 20 years left, I know these things happen. I’m okay with it’.

“If you think about any other thing in our life, if the big screen TV was on special we’d be really happy about it. Or if you could dine at your favourite restaurant bit cheaper than normal, you’d be really happy about it. The minute shares go on sale, they fall a bit, we get the chance to buy more shares in good companies that we can own for the next 120 years, we kind of get nervous about it. It’s strange behaviour in the financial markets we don’t see in any other parts of our lives.”

ANZ, the country’s biggest KiwiSaver provider, said it had been contacted by a small number of people who wanted to switch to a more conservative fund.

“In April 2025, during another recent period of market volatility, we also noticed an increase in customers contacting us to switch into more conservative funds. However, the numbers were again low – a couple of hundred – and a fraction of what we saw in March 2020.

“We think this is a reflection of how ANZ Investments, alongside other KiwiSaver providers and industry participants, have made conscious efforts to remind KiwiSaver members to stay the course.”

Milford head of KiwiSaver Murray Harris. Supplied / Milford

At Milford, head of KiwiSaver Murray Harris said it had not received many calls or questions but was telling members that markets moved up and down and this was no different.

He said investors who stuck to their goals would do better than those who tried to time the markets and switch funds to avoid a downturn, because they would often turn out to have moved at the wrong time. That could mean locking in losses and missing out on the recovery.

Morningstar NZ spokesperson Greg Bunkall said the impact on funds would depend on the performance of equity markets from now.

“To date, the KiwiSaver balanced and growth indexes Morningstar uses to track KiwiSaver funds are flat, and that doesn’t include the bounce back [Tuesday] morning.”

So what can you do if you’re worried?

You should be in a KiwiSaver fund that matches your risk profile.

If you have a long time until you need your money, you can afford to take some more risk and should get through this disruption – and others – by not paying too much attention to your KiwiSaver balance.

If you need the money soon, you should already be in a conservative fund that hopefully isn’t moving around too much.

If you’ve realised you’ve got your settings wildly wrong, and you need money now, you’ll probably need to move your investments, even if it means locking in losses.

Sign up for Money with Susan Edmunds, a weekly newsletter covering all the things that affect how we make, spend and invest money.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

‘I’ve had some dark moments’: Former Black Cap Luke Woodcock opens up on cancer diagnosis

Source: Radio New Zealand

Former Black Cap Luke Woodcock knew something was seriously wrong late last year when he had trouble catching a cricket ball.

The cricketer-turned-coach started experiencing symptoms in October. It started with chronic fatigue, then came the random vomiting and loss of appetite.

By December his balance and co-ordination went awry, his vision became blurry, and he had a couple of bad falls.

And while doing some coaching at a college cricket tournament he had trouble simply throwing and catching a ball.

“You’d think that I had never played cricket before,” Woodcock said.

After another trip to the GP, the 43-year-old was referred to a neurologist. Three MRIs later he received the news on 21 January that he had a large cancerous brain tumour.

Three weeks later, the father of two underwent urgent surgery to try to remove the tumour. The associated risks with the surgery were significant, including the prospect of having to learn to walk again but Woodcock came out of it well.

However, surgeons were only able to get 80 percent of the tumour out.

“The last 20 percent, I think it’s on the right side of my spine where the stem cells are leading back up to the brain, just where it was unfortunately they couldn’t operate on that and that was a risk of potentially being paralysed through the face, my talking, stuff around my throat.”

Luke Woodcock played seven white ball games for the Black Caps between 2010 and 2011 and enjoyed a first-class career for Wellington that spanned 17 years. RNZ / Samuel Rillstone

Despite feeling well post-surgery and exceeding doctors expectations with his rate of recovery, he was later told that the remaining 20 percent was an aggressive grade four tumour.

“Unfortunately it’s terminal and getting told you’ve got 14 to 18 months to live was a bit of a shock… that was obviously pretty tough,” said Woodcock.

“I’ve had some dark moments post then, I’ve been working through that, really enjoy the day time but night time and sleeping was really difficult post hearing that.”

The next phase for Woodcock will be undergoing radiation and chemotherapy, which will not stop the tumour completely but can keep it at bay.

Woodcock and his partner Jacqui Incledon have been trying to navigate the New Zealand health system and explore all the treatment options available, including non-funded drugs. They are also investigating what treatment options might be available overseas, which are extremely expensive.

Incledon said it has taken a lot of time, energy and research.

“It really started in mid October last year – we had a total of 10 different doctors that we saw up until Christmas and four ED [emergency department] visits before we even got to an MRI, which was frustrating,” Incledon said.

“Having to spend a lot of energy with unknowns as to what could possibly be the cause of Luke’s sickness, we’ve had everything from stomach ulcers, to gall stones, to long-Covid, never did we imagine cancer.

“We’re just putting everything at it, making sure that all our energy can go into prolonging things for Luke.”

Facing a three month wait in the public system, the family elected to go private for Woodcock’s surgery.

Luke Woodcock’s partner, Jacqui Incledon, says navigating the public health system has been challenging. RNZ / Samuel Rillstone

Day to day life now for Woodcock is about making the most of this period when he is feeling good before his next phase of treatment.

“I get up early, I’ve got some rehab exercises, do a bit of meditation and some breathing that I do.

“Jacqui and I just get out for walks… we find a local cafe and try and do some things with my kids and stuff that I enjoy because for basically three or four months I couldn’t do that, I was stuck at home. I couldn’t play my golf, couldn’t play my tennis or just hang out.”

Next week, Woodcock is looking forward to returning to some part-time work at Wellington College.

Woodcock’s brother Leigh recently set up a Givealittle page to help raise funds for his treatment and ease the everyday financial pressures on the family.

Woodcock, who describes himself as a fairly private person, said the support he had received when news of his illness spread had been overwhelming.

“That influx, the Givealittle page… a lot of people have reached out, people I haven’t spoken to for a while. It’s been incredible, I can’t thank everyone enough and just every little bit, some fund-raising things that are happening, it means a lot.”

From Firebirds stalwart to influential coach

Woodcock played seven white ball games for the Black Caps between 2010 and 2011 and enjoyed a first-class career for Wellington that spanned 17 years.

The Wellington Firebirds record holder retired at the end of the 2018-2019 season before going full time into coaching.

Woody, as he is affectionately known, was part of the Wellington Blaze coaching team for several years until joining the sports department at Wellington College in the middle of last year.

Luke Woodcock and Amelia Kerr celebrate the Wellington Blaze’s Super Smash T20 title win at Eden Park in 2024. Kerr says Woodcock played a big role in her development.. Andrew Cornaga/www.photosport.nz

Through coaching the Wellington Blaze, Woodcock played a big part in the development of White Ferns players such as current captain Melie Kerr, who was shocked to hear the news.

Kerr, a right-arm leg-spin bowler and top-order batter, said she enjoyed talking tactics with Woodcock, who bowled left-arm spin during his career.

“In the women’s game you’ve seen spin dominate the game, left arm spin dominate the game, so I loved to use and abuse his shoulder and practice facing a lot of left-arm spin in the nets against him,” Kerr said.

Kerr said winning the T20 Super Smash title in her first full year as captain of the Blaze in 2024, was one of her favourite cricket memories.

“It was such a special title to win with that group and captaining it also meant a whole lot more – working closely with the coaches and just trying to help the team as well. There’s a photo that’s been shared of Woody and I with the trophy hugging, and it’s a really special photo to me and you can kind of see from that picture as well how much it meant to him to win that title as well.

“As a coach who I think worked in the men’s game before coming into the women’s game, to offer that passion and see how much he enjoyed seeing the success of others when we won that title, it was a pretty cool moment to have it captured as well.”

White Fern Maddy Green was also coached by Woodcock at the Blaze.

“He was really influential for me, I would often bat with him a lot through the winter and he’d throw me lots of balls and was always really generous with his time – you can just see he lives and breathes cricket.”

Blaze and White Fern veteran Jess Kerr described Woodcock as a bit of a “teddy bear” whose reputation as a hard worker around Cricket Wellington and New Zealand Cricket is “exceptional.”

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Urgent Waitangi Tribunal inquiry into government’s removal of schools’ Treaty obligations

Source: Radio New Zealand

The tino rangatiratanga haki (flag) outside Parliament on the day of the Treaty Principles Bill introduction. RNZ / Emma Andrews

The Waitangi Tribunal has granted urgency to an inquiry into the government’s decision to scrap school boards’ legal duty to give effect to Te Tiriti o Waitangi and reset Te Mātaiaho, the New Zealand Curriculum.

Northland iwi Ngāti Hine and hapū Te Kapotai, alongside the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI), filed the claim in November last year, arguing the changes undermined Māori rangatiratanga, partnership and equity in education.

The claimants say the removal of Treaty obligations from school boards risks causing significant and irreversible harm to Māori learners and their whānau.

In the Waitangi Tribunal’s decision, it said the changes had constitutional significance and met the threshold for urgency.

“Any legislative change altering the nature and manner of the Crown’s Treaty obligations has a constitutional significance. That is especially so in a case where Māori have not been consulted.”

While the Tribunal noted the Crown had acknowledged there was no engagement with Māori on the decision to amend the law, it said removing the statutory obligation for school boards to give effect to Te Tiriti had “immediate consequences for the status of the Treaty and for tamariki Māori within the education system”.

The Tribunal also rejected the Crown’s argument that other inquiries or future policy reviews could address the issue, saying those pathways would not provide “timely or targeted scrutiny”.

The Treaty of Waitangi. RNZ / Quin Tauetau

The requirement for school boards to give effect to Te Tiriti was introduced in 2020 as part of reforms to the Education and Training Act.

The government later removed the provision in 2025, with Education Minister Erica Stanford saying at the time of the anouncement that Treaty obligations sit with the Crown, not schools.

“School boards should have direction and we are giving very clear direction. You need to ensure equitable outcomes for Māori students, you need to be offering te reo Māori and you need to be culturally competent,” she said at the time.

Since the change, more than 1800 kura – around 70 percent of schools across Aotearoa – had publicly reaffirmed they would continue giving effect to Te Tiriti.

The Tribunal acknowledged the number of schools that had pledged to continue honouring Te Tiriti in its decision. However, it said the absence of a statutory framework could make those commitments inconsistent across the edcation system.

NZEI President Ripeka Lessels, the head of the country’s largest education sector union. NZEI supplied

NZEI Te Riu Roa president and claimant Ripeka Lessels welcomed the Tribunal’s decision, saying it sent a strong signal about the seriousness of the issue.

“I’m absolutely elated that they have granted urgency. It isn’t something that is done lightly for the Waitangi Tribunal,” she told RNZ.

Lessels said the decision to grant urgency reflected growing public and sector support for Te Tiriti.

“There was a time in our history where we didn’t have it, we didn’t have to give effect to it at all. And so nobody did. Nobody taught it. Nobody made references to it. Schools certainly didn’t see the importance of it until the Education and Training Act put in section 127. So that’s why it’s really, really important that we challenge what this government has unilaterally decided around moving the Te Tiriti o Waitangi.”

She said removing the Treaty obligation signalled where the government’s priorities lay.

“By removing section 127 of the Education and Training Act, they are clearly deprioritising Māori and Te Tiriti o Waitangi, te reo Māori, tikanga and mātauranga Māori from legislation.”

Lessels said the Tribunal inquiry was an opportunity to challenge the government’s decision.

“We have to challenge this removal. We don’t want future generations looking back and thinking this happened and nobody stood up against it.”

Ngāti Hine leader Waihoroi “Wassi” Shortland speaks at Ruapekapeka Pā. RNZ / Peter de Graaf

Speaking to RNZ, Ngāti Hine kaumātua and claimant Te Waihoroi Shortland said removing the obligation felt politically motivated.

“When you have it dismissed out of hand, for no other reason than people feel like they are losing something or they’re giving up something to Māori when they recognise the articles of Te Tiriti in any way, shape or form … it plays out to a largely Pākehā constituent that has no time to consider these things,” he said.

“People forget that two nations made this deal (Te Tiriti o Waitangi). One of them was Māori and one of them was the Crown of England … then one nation turns around and swallows the other one up and says, everything we decide is for your good.

“It’s been that way for 186 years. These kind of actions remind us that we haven’t moved very far in all of that time.”

Asked why Ngāti Hine felt it was important to file a claim, Shortland said his people were following the guidance of their tūpuna, Te Ruku Kawiti.

“In his ōhaki to Ngāti Hine – his last legacy statement to Ngāti Hine – he challenged all Ngāti Hine descendants to hold fast to our faith and to protect the commitments of our tūpuna … at any time that the words of the document that they signed up to are challenged, then Ngāti Hine must stand and oppose,” he told RNZ.

“We often can’t rely on the system of government to do that for us. Even with two sides of the Parliament, it doesn’t matter which one is in. It usually is a case that they both begin in their own interests first, and Māori are way, way in the distance second.”

In a statement to RNZ, Education Minister Erica Stanford said she was unable to comment.

“As the matter is currently before the Tribunal it would not be appropriate for me to comment.”

A date was yet to be set for the hearings.

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Black Caps World Cup octet in, eight more out for South Africa series

Source: Radio New Zealand

South Africa’s captain Aiden Markram (L) and David Miller (R) with New Zealand’s Lockie Ferguson at the T20 World Cup. AFP

After nearly three months in the subcontinent, the Black Caps are finally headed home, albeit without the trophy they wanted, and staring down one last challenge before they part ways.

A five-match T20 series against South Africa, starting on Sunday, will cap off the home summer.

The series comes less than a week after the T20 World Cup final loss against India in India. And two months after their first ever one-day series win in India.

The cricket calendar can be relentless and Black Caps coach Rob Walter had that in mind when the team for the South Africa series, which begins in Mt Maunganui, was selected.

Eight players from the World Cup squad – captain Mitch Santner, Devon Conway, Lockie Ferguson, Kyle Jamieson, Cole McConchie, Jimmy Neesham, Ben Sears and Ish Sodhi – will play at least some part in the series.

“Primarily, we want to find a nice balance now between giving guys off, it was a pretty intense nine weeks to be fair in India and Sri Lanka, and obviously stepping straight into a five-match series in a couple of days’ time,” Walter said.

“So, sort of managing the guys who are going to PSL (Pakistan Super League), going to IPL (Indian Premier League), with guys who didn’t have much game time in the actual World Cup itself and working hard to get that balance right.

“That’s the nature of the beast right now in international cricket and understanding we also have to take care of our players

“Those guys left everything out there from a World Cup point of view.”

Walter said he was in “constant communication” with the playing group to gauge their readiness to continue into another series.

“You still need to be in a mental space to put your best foot forward for your country when you’re competing.

“But we have a fairly decent showing of our World Cup squad in the series, which is great, and there’s a lot of keenness from the players’ point of view to actually play, which is awesome, given that it’s been a pretty hectic little while.”

Ishan Kishan of India celebrates his fifty runs ICC Men’s T20 World Cup Grand Final. www.photosport.nz

Selector Gavin Larsen said they had to be “pragmatic” in selecting the squad.

“We’re lucky to have strong depth across the different skill sets, which has afforded us the opportunity to rest a few players and introduce some others,” Larsen said.

“That provides an excellent opportunity for many to stake their claim for regular inclusion in the T20 team moving forward as we begin a new World Cup cycle.

“It’s been a busy couple of months for those on the road and with the South Africa series ahead, a tour to Bangladesh in April-May during the IPL and PSL windows, alongside a New Zealand A tour to Sri Lanka and followed by winter tours to England and West Indies – keeping our players fit and fresh in the short and the long term is our top priority.”

Those who would be taking a break after the World Cup to manage workloads or family life were: Finn Allen, Mark Chapman, Jacob Duffy, Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips, Rachin Ravindra, Tim Seifert and Matt Henry.

Top order batters Katene Clarke and Nick Kelly are in line to make their T20 debuts during the series, as is Central Districts spinner Jayden Lennox.

Clarke’s maiden Black Caps call-up follows a break-out Super Smash season where the 26-year-old topped the competition run-scoring charts with 431 runs, including an unbeaten century, as his Northern Brave side claimed the T20 domestic title.

Katene Clarke of the Northern Brave. Photosport

“Katene is someone we’ve been keeping an eye on for a while now and so it was great to see him shoot the lights out in the Super Smash and force his way into his first Black Caps squad,” Larsen said.

“He’s an explosive player who possesses plenty of power and a variety of shots. He’s shown destructive ability inside the power play, but also crucially the ability to bat deep in an innings too.”

Lennox’s first inclusion in a Black Caps T20 squad follows his successful ODI debut series against India in January where he claimed 3-84 from his 20 overs against the formidable home batting line-up.

Kelly’s been a consistent performer for the Wellington Firebirds across the formats in recent years and earns his maiden T20 call-up off the back of his ODI debut series against Pakistan at home last April.

Josh Clarkson, Zak Foulkes, Bevon Jacobs and Tim Robinson get their chance to impress after being selected for the full five-game series, with Clarkson back in the side for the first time since playing eight T20Is in 2024.

Tom Latham, who was the top run-scorer for the Canterbury Kings in the Super Smash, makes his return to the national T20 set-up as a wicket-keeper-batsman and will also take over the captaincy reigns from Santner for the final two matches.

With Conway departing after three matches, Central Stags gloveman Dane Cleaver will join the squad for the end of the series, having last played for New Zealand in 2023.

South Africa arrived in New Zealand with three players from their World Cup squad that was knocked out of the tournament by the Black Caps.

None of their players with IPL contracts will travel to Aotearoa.

Walter, a former South Africa coach, knows the Proteas team that does come will still provide a challenge.

“The depth in South Africa has always been strong. Obviously, the SA20 competition has developed a lot of younger players in South Africa, so from that point of view, they have a pretty good team,” Walter said.

“Most of them have played international cricket, or have done very well domestically so it’ll be a good challenge.”

Black Caps T20 squad v South Africa

  • Mitchell Santner (c) (matches 1-3)
  • Katene Clarke* (4-5)
  • Josh Clarkson
  • Dane Cleaver (wk) (4-5)
  • Devon Conway (wk) (1-3)
  • Lockie Ferguson (2-3)
  • Zak Foulkes
  • Bevon Jacobs
  • Kyle Jamieson
  • Nick Kelly*
  • Tom Latham (wk) (c – 4-5)
  • Jayden Lennox* (4-5)
  • Cole McConchie
  • Jimmy Neesham
  • Tim Robinson
  • Ben Sears
  • Nathan Smith
  • Ish Sodhi

*Potential T20I debut

Michael Bracewell (calf), Adam Milne (ankle), Will O’Rourke (back) and Blair Tickner (ankle) were not considered for the series due to injury.

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Court ruling ‘brought justice to Te Tai Tokerau voters’, Te Pāti Māori MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi says

Source: Radio New Zealand

Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. Anneke Smith / RNZ

MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi says Justice Radich “brought justice to Te Tai Tokerau voters” when he ruled her expulsion from Te Pāti Māori “unlawful”.

It comes as a political commentator says the party might be looking to distance itself from the drama of last year, and focus on the election ahead.

The formally reinstated MP took to social media on Tuesday night to celebrate the verdict, saying her intention in bringing the case was not to incite division, but “seek clarity and ensure the processes we hold ourselves to – particularly those grounded in tikanga, are honoured”.

“Finally, today, the truth has risen,” Kapa-Kingi said following the release of the verdict on Tuesday afternoon, which ruled her suspension and subsequent expulsion as “unlawful”.

Radich said the tikanga principles that were infused into the kawa document “were not mentioned or applied” in relation to her suspension.

“Perhaps most fundamentally, the relevant tikanga principles – which must inform the way in which a decision-maker considers the kawa’s rules – were not applied in any way,” Radich said.

“This decision on its own will not heal all the mamae, but it is an important first step,” Kapa-Kingi said online.

Kapa-Kingi also mentioned she looked forward to meeting with those from Te Tai Tokerau to discuss their future strategy for the election in coming weeks.

She finished by acknowledging this week belonged to “my darling nephew Peeni Henare”, whose many years of service “deserve recognition and respect”.

Mike Colson KC – Kapa-Kingi’s lawyer – told RNZ it was nice to see an “unjust situation rectified”.

Mike Colson KC. RNZ / Samuel Rillstone

He was particularly interested in the judge’s assessment of the party breaching its own tikanga, acknowledging tikanga was a “fairly hot topic” amongst the legal profession at the moment.

“Many judges are slightly nervous dealing with it, or – one might expect very respectful of it.

“Here we had such a clear explanation of what the tikanga was of the party, and I thought it was quite brave and right of the judge to find that kawa and tikanga had been breached.”

He also acknowledged it might be considered “unusual” for a judge to “direct a party to take an action within Parliament”.

But Colson said the situation was so clear, and there was a lack of clarity last time as to whether that extra step was necessary.

“The judge thought it was proper to do so and to direct them to give a notice to the speaker.”

He said it was an unusual set of circumstances, and did not think it would set a major precedent.

The defendants had argued the case was a contractual matter, and should be dealt with privately, but Colson said the judge was quick to point out the “public character of the proceeding”, and that it was not just Kapa-Kingi’s case, but her electorate who voted her in.

“They, of course, also had a role to play and a voice to be heard, and that really pushed into very much the public arena.”

What will happen now?

On Tuesday Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi told reporters he had attempted to make contact with Kapa-Kingi, but it was not clear what the process was for her reinstatement or how the apparent rift would be addressed.

Associate professor in politics at Victoria University, Lara Greaves, told RNZ she had expected this ruling from the case.

She explained Te Pāti Māori’s constitution “wasn’t particularly clear”, and it was “very hard” to figure out if the party had followed the rules in terms of her expulsion.

Greaves thinks the decision to go to court was Kapa-Kingi’s attempt at staying with the party, “to change it from the inside,”, and this was “politics pushing up against the law”.

“Legally, there’s a judgment, here that Kapa-Kingi is still part of the party, but it’s not clear what will happen next.”

Political scientist & Victoria University of Wellington Associate Professor Dr Lara Greaves RNZ

She said the co-leaders had not spoken about the ruling much, and they had expressed a desire to limit any further drama, so “for a lot of us, it’s just going to be a case of waiting and seeing what happens”.

“Being within a political party where you’ve been expelled is probably not a comfortable place,” Greaves said.

She pointed to potential scenarios of further attempts at expulsion or further issues raised, “there’s still a lot of things that could happen here and happen here”.

Greaves said a lot of people, including herself, had made the assessment there was a “bit too much commentary” taking place last year from the party and others involved.

“So, just being a bit quieter might be a good solution there.

“Te Pāti Māori may have listened to a lot of their critics, listened to a lot of their whānau and communities, and thought – we need to keep this out of the media and keep a bit quiet on it going forward.”

Greaves also pointed to the Māori seats, and Labour and the Greens running strong candidates this election, “there are quite a few potential threats to their electoral success, so it’s kind of important that [Te Pāti Māori] sort it out now and figure out what they’re doing in order to get success in the election”.

“Te Pāti Māori may have made a decision in a way to hope that voters think that these issues are behind them and to move forward constructively.”

She said there would be a lot of scrutiny on the dynamics between Kapa-Kingi and the party leadership in the coming months, as well as a focus on MPs Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke and Oriini Kaipara and how they were fitting into the party.

It was possible, she said, that there would be enough time between the “drama” last year to the election this year that people did forgive and forget, “that would actually be a pretty good comeback”.

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Counsellors facing growing demand,shrinking workforce, funding pressures – industry body

Source: Radio New Zealand

The Association of Counsellors says there is growing demand for counselling – alongside a shrinking workforce and funding pressures. MICROGEN IMAGES/SCIENCE PHOTO LI

Counsellors say long wait lists and not enough publicly funded services are preventing people seeking the help they need.

The Association of Counsellors said its Counselling Workforce Report 2025 found growing demand for counselling – alongside a shrinking workforce and funding pressures.

President Huhana Pene said the lack of public funding for sessions was putting the handbrake on help.

“New Zealand has a qualified counselling workforce that wants to help,” Pene said, “But system barriers mean many people who need counselling are waiting too long or missing out altogether.”

Pene said there were also concerns about the workforce – with more than half working part-time with low or insecure incomes.

Many planned to reduce their practice, retire or leave the profession within two years.

“Without changes to funding and employment conditions, we risk losing experienced counsellors at a time when demand for support continues to grow,” Pene said.

Schools were under particular pressure, with counsellors reporting a steady flow of students seeking support and increasingly complex needs.

Many said they were forced to prioritise students in crisis, leaving limited time for preventative support.

Pene said practical solutions were available – improving funding stability for non-government organisations, increasing the ratio of counsellors to students in schools to 1:400, and strengthening recognition of the profession would all improve access to counselling.

“Counselling is a vital part of New Zealand’s mental health support, and if we address some of these barriers, counsellors would be better able to help many more people when they need it.”

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Strong winds, heavy rain loom as tropical low nears New Zealand

Source: Radio New Zealand

Rain forecast for 4pm Wednesday. MetService

A weather alert has been issued as a tropical storm nears the north of the country.

A tropical low is expected to lie north of New Zealand on Wednesday afternoon, bringing southeast gales and heavy rain to the north.

MetService has issued a strong wind watch for the Far North District from 1pm to 11pm on Wednesday. There was a moderate chance the watch could be upgraded to a warning.

Civil Defence Northland is advising people to take extra care on the roads and check they are prepared for any potential power outages caused by strong winds

From Thursday, the forecasting agency said the system is expected to move and reach Auckland.

Meanwhile, another front moves onto Fiordland, bringing strong northwesterlies and heavy rain.

MetService said there is low confidence that warning amounts of rain will accumulate in Northland, northern Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula, but moderate confidence that warning amounts of rain will accumulate in Fiordland.

Come Friday, the remnants of the low and the associated front are expected to move across the northern half of the North Island, while the front over Fiordland moves northeast over the remainder of the South Island.

“There is low confidence that warning amounts of rain will accumulate from Northland through to Taupō, also northern Gisborne/Tairawhiti, and from northwest Tasman to Westland, but moderate confidence that warning amounts of rain will accumulate in Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and Fiordland,” MetService said.

The rain is expected to ease by Saturday morning.

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The world is eating our lunch: How our apples, seafood and avocados make millions

Source: Radio New Zealand

RNZ

Five years after Who’s Eating NZ, this series revisits where our food goes – but this time through the lens of Kiwi breakfast, lunch and dinner staples. We track how much of what we produce is eaten here, and who has a seat at our global table during meal times. Today, it’s lunch time.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon memorably advised parents unhappy with supplied school lunches to “make a Marmite sandwich and put an apple in a bag”.

New Zealand certainly does enjoy an abundance of apples.

We grow so many that almost nine out of 10 are sold overseas, fresh and processed.

The bumper crop is no accident. There has been a concerted push to grow the apple export industry with the development and marketing of new varieties. Royal gala and Braeburn apples have been joined by Jazz, Envy and Rockit.

Back in 2012, the industry set a goal of reaching $1 billion in exports by 2022. At that time, exports were sitting at $340 million. The target was missed in 2022, but exceeded in 2025 when exports of $1.26b were achieved.

New challenges come with that success though. Horticulture company T&G won a court order in China, forcing orchards in China to rip out illegally grown knock-offs of its Envy variety.

China clearly has developed a taste for our apples – it was our biggest apple buyer in 2025, followed by Taiwan, Vietnam and India.

For local apple buyers, prices fluctuate through the year, with the highest prices occurring in January. In 2007, 1kg of apples cost $3.89. In January 2025 a kilogram of apples cost $6.15.

The humble avocado might be one of the most controversial foods around. Along with being blamed for creating a generation of renters, its notoriously slippery stone has meant millions in ACC payouts for ‘avocado hand’ injuries, and telling someone they “have the avocados” can spark a language debate.

As well as being keen consumers, New Zealand makes a solid contribution to the global supply of avocados. More than 4700 hectares of the country is planted in avocados, with most concentrated in the Far North and Bay of Plenty.

About 50 percent of what was grown locally last year remained in the country, the rest heading offshore.

Australia is the biggest buyer, purchasing about a third of our exports in 2025, down from a peak of 90 percent in 2020. Far smaller quantities are bought by South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan and Hong Kong.

Export earnings have fallen from a 2020 high of $177m to $102m, as New Zealand competes with other global growers, such as Peru, which had a bumper crop in 2025.

New Zealand Avocado chief executive Brad Siebert said countries such as Mexico, Peru, Columbia and South Africa are producing more avocados, which leads to volatile prices. Demand globally is increasing, but at a slow, sometimes uneven pace.

Domestic prices rise and fall annually, often peaking in May. The highest price per kg of $28.67 was in May 2019.

Seafood might be hard to miss in an office lunchroom, but in the data it disappears. It is incredibly hard to put a figure on how much commercially caught seafood ends up in our lunchboxes compared to what’s exported.

The industry body Seafood NZ said there’s been no need to collect domestic information and this position hasn’t changed since RNZ examined seafood exports in 2020.

It is possible to take some stabs at the number. Previously published figures include 90 percent, 77 percent, and numbers previously on Seafood New Zealand’s website say approximately 450,000 tonnes of seafood is caught each year, with 276,901 tonnes exported.

This comes out at about 63 percent – but working on caught weight versus exported weight is not accurate. Fish is gutted and often filleted before export, so it is impossible to match the caught weight up with export data. Sanford’s 2025 annual report says about 82 percent of its sale value is from exports.

Where our seafood goes has shifted over time. In the 1990s, Japan, Australia and the United States were the biggest buyers of our seafood, but by 2011 China emerged as the top buyer. Its spending peaked in 2022 at $709m but by 2025 dropped to $594m.

Seafood exports earned $2b in 2024 and 2025. The biggest single export earner was live rock lobster – China bought $290m worth of them.

Crayfish might not be on everyone’s lunch menu, but rock lobster has been New Zealand seafood’s biggest export earner since 2017 with around 2500 tonnes exported each year, earning between $266m and $392m. Export volumes hit a record 2700 tonnes in 2025.

The demand has put pressure on crayfish populations. In December it was announced that commercial and recreational fishing for rock lobster will be banned from April 2026 off Northland’s east coast in an effort to halt the species rapid decline in the area.

Despite high-profile controversy about global beverage giants bottling our water, exported New Zealand water actually represents a small proportion compared to what’s sold locally.

An exact figure for local sales is hard to come by, but 2018 information published on the Ministry for the Environment’s website suggests only 17 percent is exported.

Bottling companies pay resource consent fees, but do not pay for the water itself. This can mean they pay less for water than residential rate payers.

In 2020 China was the biggest buyer, but since 2022 the US has taken top position.

Despite abundant water here, Kiwis still pay for water from other countries. In 2025 more than 3 million litres was imported, including 1m litres from Italy and nearly 300,000 litres from Fiji.

Stay tuned for Friday’s story, where we take a look at who we’re sharing our dinner with and dive into beef, sheep, onion and wine exports.

Where the data came from

Apples: New Zealand Apple and Pears and StatsNZ trade data items with a harmonised system description containing “Fruit, edible; apples”.

Avocados: New Zealand Avocado and StatsNZ trade data items with a harmonised system description containing “Fruit, edible; avocados, fresh”.

Seafood: Various sources and StatsNZ trade data for items with a harmonised system code between 301910000 to 308909000.

Water: Ministry for the Environment and StatsNZ trade data items with the following harmonised system descriptions: “Waters; mineral and aerated, including natural or artificial, (not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter nor flavoured), other than in metal containers”, Waters; other than mineral and aerated, (not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter nor flavoured), ice and snow, other than in metal containers” , “Waters; mineral and aerated, including natural or artificial, (not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter nor flavoured), in metal containers”, “Waters; other than mineral and aerated, (not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter nor flavoured), ice and snow, in metal aerosol containers, not containing chlorofluorocarbons” , “Waters; other than mineral and aerated, (not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter nor flavoured), ice and snow, in metal containers, not aerosol”

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Government backtracks on live animal export plans

Source: Radio New Zealand

Animal Welfare Minister Andrew Hoggard. RNZ / Mark Papalii

The Green Party is welcoming news that the government has backtracked on plans to reinstate live animal exports.

Animal Welfare Minister Andrew Hoggard told 1 News he could not get Cabinet agreement on overturning the ban, which formed part of coalition agreements with both ACT and NZ First.

Green Party spokesperson Steve Abel said the news was a win for animals, the public and the groups campaigning against the move.

He said there had been backlash to the proposal right from the start.

“From the outset, there was overwhelming outrage from veterinary experts who expressed there was no way to maintain animal welfare standards and herd cattle onto ships where they spend weeks at sea wallowing in their own waste. It’s fundamentally cruel and there’s no way to uphold the barest animal standards while exporting at sea,” Abel said.

“They couldn’t get it across the line because New Zealanders didn’t want to see animals suffering in that way.”

A 57,000-strong petition calling for the ban to stay in place was presented to parliament in 2024.

At the time, Hoggard said he wanted the ban overturned by 2025.

In April 2025, Hoggard told RNZ he expected the legislation to go to Cabinet within months, but that a backlog had slowed the work of the Parliamentary Counsel Office in drafting the amendment.

Last month, Livestock Exports NZ chief executive Glen Neal said uncertainty around the bill was unhelpful, but the industry remained hopeful the ban would be overturned.

Parliamentary questions revealed the minister had not received any advice on the plan since mid-2025, despite telling scrutiny week committees the amendment had gone before cabinet in December last year, Abel said.

If the coalition intended to make it an election issue, it needed to tell the public immediately, but Abel believed “the handbrake had been pulled” at the Cabinet level because of the unpopularity of the move.

Green MP Steve Abel. RNZ / Samuel Rillstone

The Ministry for Primary Industries initiated an independent review of live exports in 2020, after the sinking of Gulf Livestock 1, which resulted in the deaths of 41 crew and nearly 6000 cattle.

The vessel, registered to Panama and owned by a UAE shipping company, left Napier in August 2020 bound for China, but sank off the coast of Japan in a typhoon.

In 2022, the previous government passed a bill banning live exports, beginning in April 2023.

At the time, National’s animal welfare spokesperson Nicola Grigg said the ban was disproportionate and ideological, and would hurt farmers and consumers.

The National Party had campaigned on overturning the ban, with a proposal it said would require greater regulation to protect animal welfare and safety, such as purpose-built ships and a certification regime for importers.

Hoggard, who is a former president of Federated Farmers, had previously said reintroducing the trade was one of his top priorities in the portfolio and he wanted to “progress with some haste”.

A 2024, an RNZ investigation revealed industry group Livestock Export New Zealand planned to spend $1 million to ensure the ban was dismantled, including on political lobbying, a “social media counter offensive”, a “trust and understanding” campaign, media training and creating the “gold standard” for animal welfare.

RNZ has approached Minister Hoggard for comment.

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Immigration officials chase Indian cultural performers after visas expire

Source: Radio New Zealand

Supplied

Immigration New Zealand says it is trying to contact nearly a dozen cultural performers from India who are believed to have remained in the country after their visas expired.

The performers travelled to New Zealand last month as part of a group accompanying Bollywood singer Shibani Kashyap for Holi celebrations around the country.

Jeannie Melville, deputy chief operating officer at Immigration New Zealand, said the agency assessed visa applications for a group of 27 Indian nationals travelling under the banner “Community Holi Celebration with Shibani Kashyap”.

“The Indian Consulate in Auckland was the point of contact for the group,” Melville said.

“INZ verified that the event was genuine, including consultation with the Indian Consul General in Auckland who confirmed they were supporting the event,” she said.

“A robust and fair assessment process was applied to the individuals making up this group, including collaboration with our Risk and Verification teams in India.”

Eighteen people from the group arrived in New Zealand. Of those, three have since left the country and 15 remained in the country, according to Immigration New Zealand.

“Four hold valid visitor visas,” Melville said.

Melville said seven applications were initially approved while four were declined due to concerns, including suspected fraudulent documents.

Immigration New Zealand later approved 13 short-term limited visas for the specific purpose of attending the event.

The agency said it had been in contact with the Indian High Commission about the situation and was prioritising efforts to contact those who may now be in the country unlawfully on a case-by-case basis.

The group travelled from India to perform at Holi events around the country, including one held in Pukekohe in February.

Kashyap also visited New Zealand last year and performed at Independence Day events organised by Delhi-based CD Foundation.

Melville said Immigration New Zealand was not aware of similar past cases involving cultural performers from India overstaying their visas, though she noted the agency’s reporting did not record that level of detail.

RNZ has approached the Indian High Commission and the Indian Consulate for comment.

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Taking the wealth – the plunder and impoverishment of West Papua

REVIEW: By Lee Duffield

Declining population in West Papua, and critical loss of life through clashes with the Indonesia military raise the question of genocide in a new book by Brisbane writer Dr Greg Poulgrain.

This work, Curse of Gold, published in English by Kompas, as the title indicates traces the roots of subjugation going on in West New Guinea (West Papua) to a cynical grabbing for resources. An Indonesian language edition is forthcoming.

The book is a history beginning with the discovery of huge deposits of gold in 1936, deposits more than twice the gold being mined at Witwatersrand, together with discovery of oil just off-shore.

The Curse of Gold cover.

The principal mine now, with an Indonesian billionaire as main owner, has 560 km of tunnels and produces 50 tonnes of gold annually.

The existence of the gold was kept secret, awaiting investment and development opportunities, held up by war with the Japanese, known just to Dutch interests, the Japanese, and significant for the future, the Rockefeller petroleum company Standard Oil in the United States.

The writer details the operation of a “Third Force” in a chain of political intrigues and manipulation over a half century: the US company, sometimes officers of the US government, and at all times an early player since the first discovery, Allen Dulles, who came to head-up the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

Dulles as the lawyer for Standard Oil had already got a petroleum concession in Netherlands New Guinea before 1936, through forming a joint US-Dutch company with majority US interest.

Heyday of CIA operations
In the 1950s heyday of CIA undercover operations across the “Third World”, Dulles is depicted here manipulating political events in Indonesia, whether spreading disinformation, concealing information from governments, even setting up mysterious, destabilising armed skirmishes.

The objective given is always the same, to secure ownership of resources and a free hand for American commercial interests. At one point covert government help would be provided through some disingenuous work by Henry Kissinger as Secretary of State to Richard Nixon, and the always interventionist US Ambassador Marshall Green.

For people of West New Guinea the intriguing saga has been a catastrophe, seeing their rights, interests, existence and even human identity denied and ignored in the struggles over wealth and power.

The story is in two phases:

In wartime the occupying Japanese encouraged the Indonesian independence movement, as a block against any return to influence by European colonial powers, and naturally wanted Papuan resources themselves.

A Japanese intelligence operative, Nishijima Shigetada, familiar with the region, is given a key role. He had found out about the gold, and persuaded the Indonesian nationalists to include West New Guinea in their demands for a republic — the better to get the trove out of the hands of “colonial monopolies”.

The second phase of developments saw an ugly turn of events with the 1965 military coup in Indonesia, marked by large scale massacre across the country and coming to power of Suharto as President in 1967.

The new regime determined to build on the campaign by its predecessor, President Sukarno, to take over West New Guinea. In the calculus of Cold War rivalries, President John Kennedy had sought to keep him “on side” and the Russians provided guns and aid, in part to best their Chinese rivals.

Dutch gave in
The outcome was that the Dutch who had stayed on in the territory gave in to pressure and pulled out by the end of 1963. It was nominally then put under United Nations trusteeship until an “act of free choice” on independence.

But Indonesian forces moved in, violently put down any Papuan resistance, promulgated theories of an Indonesia Raya, a lost island empire to which all of New Guinea had belonged, and declared the decision on independence would be an issue of “staying” with Indonesia. Neither Kennedy nor Sukarno, who had planned to meet in 1964, is believed to have known about the gold in Papua.

Dr Poulgrain recounts the narrative of bullying and deception, including the sidelining of senior UN representatives, whereby the “act of free choice” became notoriously a series of managed gatherings, no plebiscite of the people ever countenanced. He argues that the “Third Party”, having helped to remove the Dutch, then moved in favour of its own preferred candidate, Suharto, no nationalist from the independence movement, a self-declared friend of US commerce and advocate for untrammelled investment:

“It could be argued that the fiery nationalism so characteristic of Sukarno, the tool that won him the right to enter the harbour of Soekarnopura (Jayapura) on board the Soviet warship renamed Irian, proved to be his own undoing. Under the mantle of Sukarno’s presidency, Indonesia ousted the Dutch from New Guinea, the goal of both Nishijima and the ‘Third Party’, finally bringing an end to the European colonial presence there.

“Only 30 months later, Sukarno was facing his own political demise …”

In case the reader considers this might all be a well-worn path, it should be emphasised there is new material and insight into the origins and enactment of cruelty, appropriation and dishonesty that became the pattern in Suharto’s New Order Indonesia and its captive provinces in West New Guinea.

It is a work of thoroughness and industry, especially where covert activity and actual conspiracy appears; extensive documentation has been provided making the case strong. Much of it is original material, such as diplomatic messaging obtained through libraries, and records of interviews or correspondence with leading figures, viz Nishijima or the former US Secretary of State Dean Rusk.

Well defended
The thesis of the book is consistently propounded and well defended:

“This book is about the ownership of the immense wealth of natural resources in Western New Guinea”.

The colonised inhabitants did not get that ownership or any just share of it, with bad consequences for their culture and welfare. It was a bad beginning in 1963 with Indonesia in a dominating frame of mind:

“Papuan culture is the antithesis of life in Java.”

Where the Dutch colonisers are characterised as a very small population hardly penetrating the hinterland, the Indonesians who took over from them have been aggressive with their industry building, immigration and military occupation.

Papuans today make up barely half the population of 5.4-million, steadily outstripped by arrivals. Population growth in the comparable country, Papua New Guinea, since independence in 1975 has been much stronger, now pushing towards 11-million.

  • Curse of Gold, by Greg Poulgrain (Jakarta, Kompas, 2026). ISBN 978, ISBN 978 (PDF)

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Fuel supplies in NZ: ‘Unless things change there’ll be big challenges’

Source: Radio New Zealand

RNZ / Kim Baker Wilson

The government has warned the country’s oil deliveries are in doubt if the conflict in the Middle East rages on.

The closure of the Straits of Hormuz and damage to infrastructure has triggered volatility, fuelling record oil prices.

Prices hikes have stretched beyond the petrol pump, with Air New Zealand raising fares, suspending its earning guidance and warning it may have to cut flights if oil prices continued to increase.

Air Chathams said the rising cost of oil was costing the small airline about $140,000 extra a month in fuel, and could see it cut flights.

Associate Energy Minister and Regional Development Minister Shane Jones told Checkpoint the government was not considering rationing, despite the Australian government looking at contingency plans that included fuel rationing.

He said the government had been assured the physical arrival of the fuel was not under threat in coming months.

“But get to May we’re told by the industry unless things change there’ll be big challenges.”

A newly created ministerial oversight group, announced by PM Luxon late yesterday, will meet for the first time on Wednesday, Jones said.

The group is led by Finance Minister Nicola Willis and included Jones, Minister of Agriculture and Trade Todd McLay, Minister of Energy Simon Watts and Minister of Commerce Scott Simpson.

Key inputs for New Zealand’s fertiliser industry such as urea come out of the Middle East, including from Iran, and the government also wanted to keep an eye on any price gouging, Jones said.

The group would discuss options for relief from spiking energy costs.

The minister would not outline what measures were being considering, and warned such actions always had consequences.

The government was already supporting regional airlines through loans from the Regional Infrastructure Fund, Jones said.

The minister said it was a “great worry” a number of countries with refineries were significantly reducing supply.

Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) data showed the country had 27 days of petrol in the country, and 22 days worth shipped but yet to arrive, 24 days of diesel, with 29 days on the water, and 28 days worth of jet fuel, with 22 days shipped.

Some oil companies had already declared force majeure – a clause that freed companies from contractual obligations due to extraordinary circumstances, such as natural disasters or wars.

Wise Response Society chair Nathan Surendran said levels of damage across multiple countries meant delays could last weeks or months even if the conflict ended quickly, but the threat went beyond delays.

“The force majeure declarations cascading across Gulf and Asian suppliers did not just mean delays to oil supplies, they void contracts, and could see fuel currently headed to New Zealand diverted to nations willing to pay more,” Surendran said.

There were signs this was already happening, with reports of cargoes being diverted from Europe and Africa to Asia.

The government should take a precautionary approach, signalling possible rationing now, before shortages forced it, Surendran said.

“Australian fuel wholesalers were already rationing supplies to retailers despite Australia holding 36 days of reserves and two domestic refineries – New Zealand has neither,” he said.

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View from The Hill: David Littleproud quits as Nationals leader, declaring ‘I’m buggered’

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Nationals leader David Littleproud has unexpectedly quit his post, declaring he is “buggered” and “out on my feet”.

His announcement came as a shock to colleagues and follows a period of extreme turbulence for his party and the Coalition, which split twice during this term.

Littleproud has been a controversial and, in terms of Coalition relations, provocative, leader. Although the Nationals held their lower house seats at the election, since then two of their high profile MPs have defected. Jacinta Nampijinpa Price went to the Liberals immediately after the election, and former deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce jumped to One Nation.

Littleproud had a bad relationship with former Liberal leader Sussan Ley and triggered both fractures between the two parties.

He has been much closer to the new Liberal leader, Angus Taylor, under whom relations between the parties have so far been smooth.

The Nationals will meet at 10am Wednesday to replace Littleproud. They need to do so quickly, as they have a candidate running in the May 9 byelection in Ley’s former seat of Farrer. On early indications, the Nationals have almost no chance of winning the seat, which former deputy prime minister Tim Fischer held for them before Ley.

Nationals senator Ross Cadell told Sky News the leadership contenders could be deputy leader Kevin Hogan, former leader Michael McCormack, who served as deputy prime minister, outspoken backbencher Matt Canavan and Senate leader Bridget McKenzie. Littleproud did not endorse a successor.

Sources confirmed McKenzie was likely to stand.

Canavan said he would run. “I believe I have the best chance to help win the battle for an Australia first plan that can deliver a better life for all Australians.”

Littleproud, who did not announce his plan at the Nationals’ regular party meeting on Tuesday, held a news conference after question time with his wife Amelia at his side.

He said he would stay on in his regional Queensland seat of Maranoa, including re-contesting it at the next election. He left open the possibility of serving on the shadow frontbench.

Despite internal and external criticism of his performance, Littleproud’s leadership position did not appear to be under any threat. One of his techniques for retaining support was to take every decision, however small, to the party room.

At his news conference, he defended his record saying, “I am proud of us recapturing our identity, for who we are and what we stand for. For that 30% of Australians who live outside a capital city.”

He said he had done this with the Voice (when the Nationals preempted the Liberals with their opposition) and on other policy areas, including net zero. “It’s not probably since John McEwen has the National Party leader had to stand up and show the courage of their character and […] stand for what their party room wants them to stand for. So I’m proud but I’m tired.”

“It is time for me to feel normal again, it has been a pretty rough road since the election.”

Littleproud was highly critical when asked about working with Ley. He said it was a mistake after the election to “wipe all our policies because all we did was leave a vacuum for someone to walk into.

“I stood and fought for those four policies that meant so much for our party room. […] I wasn’t going to let them go.

“And then [after the Nationals defied shadow cabinet solidarity] I was not going to stand by while my mates got punted for not doing anything wrong.

“Where I come from, if one of your mob gets knocked over and it is not for the right reason, you come swinging back. That is how we operate. The culture of National Party has always been like that. I am proud of that.”

Littleproud said to go on as leader “would be the wrong thing for me to do. I love the National Party. I grew up in it, I’ll bleed, to the day I die, green and gold, I love it, and it’d be wrong for me to say that I’m the right person to continue to lead. That’s tough for me to say, [that] I think someone better can do it, because I don’t have the energy. I’m out of my feet. I’m done.”

Barnaby Joyce, who said Littlepround’s ostracising of him was one reason for defecting, blasted Littleproud. He told The Australian: “Mr Littleproud has to accept responsibility for the existential crisis he left the National Party in.

“When I heard he said he was proud of what he achieved and compared himself to Black Jack [John] McEwen, I didn’t know whether that was pathos or AI interfering with my news.

“We had senior people leave such as David Gillespie, Keith Pitt, Jacinta Nampijinpa Price. We had a [Senate] seat that was lost, which was Perin Davey. Two people who basically walked out in myself and Andrew Gee, and Jacinta.”

Taylor described Littleproud as a “committed Coalitionist”.

Nationals federal president Andrew Fraser said: “I congratulate David on his personal strength and conviction that saw The Nationals lead the debate on the Voice and on the development and adoption of an energy and climate policy that will meet our future energy needs and allow Australian businesses to thrive.

“We are not a faction of the Liberal Party; we have a partnership, and David’s leadership never let them forget it.”

ref. View from The Hill: David Littleproud quits as Nationals leader, declaring ‘I’m buggered’ – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-david-littleproud-quits-as-nationals-leader-declaring-im-buggered-277970

Chatham Islands braces for energy shock

Source: Radio New Zealand

The Chatham Islands. RNZ/ Matthew Theunissen

The diesel-reliant Chatham Islands are bracing for an energy shock as petrol hits $4.50 per litre and may continue to rise.

The Chatham’s relies heavily on diesel to power the island. Although the Point Durham wind farm that opened in November is now carrying a chunk of that load.

Petrol was also shipped to the island, about 800km from the mainland.

The price of Brent crude was fluctuating off the back of war in the Middle East, at one point hitting almost US$120 a barrel.

The approximately 650 residents on the Chathams are bracing for pain at the pump.

Chatham Islands Enterprise Trust chief executive and council interim CEO Bob Penter said residents are a bit nervous.

“We are watching closely at what’s happening in the Middle East… We are certainly starting to see the effects come through to the Chathams,” he told RNZ’s Checkpoint.

Fuel arrives at the Chatham Islands by ship from New Zealand, around 120,000 litres at a time.

Penter said the island’s latest weekly fuel price has jumped about 73 cents, or 57 percent, when compared to the last three weeks.

It puts diesel at $2.29 per litre and petrol at $4.50 per litre, he said.

“We have got a bit of resilience because we’ve got a tank farm that allows us to store approximately 400,000 litres on the island… But not a lot of breathing space and eventually, if the Middle East events continue, we are going to be forced to revisit our pricing.”

Penter hopes petrol doesn’t crack $5 per litre.

“The island depends on fuel for pretty much everything we do here. It’s our flights, it’s our shipping, it’s electricity [and] it’s how we get our food here. If we are looking at price increases, it’s really going to dramatically impact the cost of living for Chatham Islanders, which is going to be a major concern.”

On Monday, the chief executive of Air Chathams said the rising cost of oil is costing the small airlinesome $140,000 extra a month in fuel.

Air Chathams chief executive Duane Emeny told Checkpoint the airline may have to cut the number of flights should the price of jet fuel remain so high.

“If you can’t afford to put aeroplanes in the air, then you’ve got to look at that and say ‘do I cut back my schedule, do I provide less connectivity because of this cost and then wait until it comes right and eases?’.”

Penter said the island hopes the conflict in the Middle East settles down sooner rather than later.

“Chatham Islanders are probably more resilient than the global fuel supply at the moment,” he said.

“They’re pretty stoic in terms of events like this, but really, the fuel, we are essentially a diesel economy.”

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NZ Warriors name unchanged line-up against Canberra Raiders

Source: Radio New Zealand

Second-rower Marata Niukore is the only addition to the Warriors squad against Canberra. Andrew Cornaga/Photosport

NZ Warriors coach Andrew Webster has named a largely unchanged line-up to meet Canberra Raiders at Go Media Stadium on Friday.

The same 19 that dressed for last week’s 42-18 win over Sydney Roosters will front again, with the only tweak being second-rower Marata Niukore replacing specialist half Luke Hanson on the extended bench.

Niukore missed the entire pre-season and the season-opener with a calf niggle, but apparently has passed fit for the second round.

As expected, co-captain Mitch Barnett has not recovered sufficiently from the knee injury that ended his 2025 campaign prematurely, but is expected to return any week now.

“We’re getting closer, so no dramas there, but the last month to six weeks, you get down to the nitty gritty,” Webster said. “Everyone thinks it’s nine months, but sometimes it’s eight-and-a-half months and sometimes it’s 10 months.

“They’re not injuries you want to mess around with. The whole medical industry has advanced so far on how quickly they can get players back, but the ACL is one of those ones that takes so long.”

Jackson Ford, who led the team in both tackles and running metres against the Roosters, will again start in Barnett’s place, with Jacob Laban in the second row, and Leka Halasima coming off the interchange.

Wing Roger Tuivasa-Sheck will bring up his 150th game for the club.

Warriors: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, 3. Ali Leiataua, 4. Adam Pompey, 5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita, 7. Tanah Boyd, 8. James Fisher-Harris, 9. Wayde Egan, 10. Jackson Ford, 11. Kurt Capewell, 12. Jacob Laban, 13. Erin Clark

Interchange: 14. Sam Healey, 15. Demitric Vaimauga, 16. Leka Halasima, 17. Tanner Stowers-Smith, 18. Taine Tuaupiki, 20. Morgan Gannon

Reserves: 21. Alofiana Khan-Pereira, 22. Marata Niukore, 23. Eddie Ieremia-Toeava

Meanwhile, Raiders coach Ricky Stuart has lose the services of veteran front-rower Josh Papalii with concussion, replaced by Englishman Morgan Smithies in the starting line-up.

Kiwis centre Matt Timoko joins the bench, after a foot injury kept him in reserve grade last week.

The Raiders beat the Warriors twice last year, including the season-opener in Las Vegas, en route to their minor premiership.

Raiders: 1. Kaeo Weekes, 2. Savelio Tamale, 3. Simi Sasagi, 4. Seb Kris, 5. Xavier Savage, 6. Ethan Strange, 7. Ethan Sanders, 8. Morgan Smithies, 9. Tom Starling, 10. Joseph Tapine, 11. Hudson Young, 12. Noah Martin, 13. Corey Horsburgh

Interchange: 14. Jayden Brailey, 15. Zac Hosking, 16. Ata Mariota, 17. Matt Timoko, 18. Daine Laurie, 19 Joe Roddy

Reserves: 20. Owen Pattie, 21. Jed Stuart, 22. Chevy Stewart

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Flight prices on the rise – and could take off again

Source: Radio New Zealand

The price of jet fuel has been fluctuating wildly since the conflict in the Middle East broke out. File photo. 123rf.com

The price of flying has already gone up – and could take off again if the conflict in the Middle East continues.

Air New Zealand raised its fares this morning, and said it could be forced to raise them again and review routes.

It is all connected to the price of aviation fuel and the critical Hormuz Strait, a shipping route for up to 20 percent of the world oil which is essentially closed due to the conflict in the area.

The price of jet fuel has been fluctuating wildly since the conflict broke out, and has at times gone up more than 120 percent.

Regional carrier Chathams Air said the war in the Middle East could add more than $1.6 million to its annual fuel bill if it continues.

It said the airline could also be forced to look at prices and schedule cuts.

Travel agent Vincent George told Checkpoint the price increase was not only to do with fuel costs, but also supply and demand.

“With the demise of some of the airlines travelling through the Middle East, which were some of the hugest carriers out of New Zealand, Qatar and Emirates, then we’re looking at people travelling on other routes.

“As these routes get taken up and the capacity gets lower not only is the airfare going to increase a little because of aviation fuel, but also because of supply and demand.”

George said travellers hoping to visit the Northern Hemisphere should book their flights as soon as possible to avoid any further price increases.

While many of Emirates flights were now travelling through the Middle East, he said flights stopping over in China and other Asian countries had seen increased demand.

The other option for travellers leaving New Zealand and heading to the Northern Hemisphere is stopping over the US.

“I think that people are maybe looking at going, those who want to travel, those who need to travel, will be looking at different options for a while yet.”

Various airlines have raised their prices due the rising cost of fuel.

Singapore Airlines raised fares to Europe by $140 for a return ticket this morning.

George said while booking with a client today, he noticed a flight to the Cook Islands from New Zealand had also risen by $200.

“Things are certainly looking as though they may be creeping up… $200 on a South Pacific airfare is significant.”

But George said a key concern was how domestic flights would be impacted by the fallout of rising costs.

“I’m worried about connectivity from the smaller outlying destinations.

“I can see that domestic travel is going to be really pricing itself out of the market for the leisure traveller.”

He said the best way to guarantee an affordable domestic flight was to book as far in advance as possible.

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Politics with Michelle Grattan: Middle East war set to push inflation higher than forecast, warns RBA deputy governor

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The Reserve Bank’s Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser says inflation in Australia looks likely to be higher than projected before the war in the Middle East broke out.

The Reserve Bank’s board will meet to discuss interest rates next week. Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock has flagged the meeting will be “live” – meaning there could be a change in interest rates announced on Tuesday.

Global oil prices have seen a dramatic spike then fall this week, creating major uncertainty for the international and Australian economies.

Speaking on the Politics with Michelle Grattan podcast, Hauser concedes the bank’s projection for headline inflation for June – an annual rate of 4.2% – is likely to be exceeded because of surging oil prices and other fallout from the Middle East war. Inflation is already well outside the bank’s 2-3% target range.

Hauser won’t put a number on the likely mid-year level, but downplays the prospect of it reaching 5% by then, as NAB’s chief economist Sally Auld has suggested. Hauser says:

That 5% I think assumes that the oil price is in the sort of US$100 range, which we were well into yesterday, but not into today. We don’t have updated numbers on our forecast now. We don’t actually formally update our forecast until May, which is the [board] meeting after the one coming up.

[…] But it clearly is the case that it’s an upside risk to that projection in February. It’s still in flux […] I don’t want to give a number that might give a false sense of accuracy. But certainly directionally it’s higher than the projection we published in February.

The outlook for interest rates

Asked whether the fallout from the Middle East conflict makes an imminent rate rise more or less likely, Hauser says: “there’s going to be a lot for the board to discuss next week”.

I think there’ll be a very genuine debate. Inflation is too high. Higher prices don’t help that debate. But there are arguments from both sides, and I think if ever there was a time when board members will earn their meagre salary, it’ll be this month.

On what home owners and buyers can expect over the next year, Hauser says:

What I do hope we’ll be able to show is that we have brought inflation back down into, or close to, the target range; that employment has remained close to full employment; and growth has held up. I will be very happy indeed if we manage to get those macroeconomic outcomes.

[…] I’m afraid to say that what path of interest rates is required to get us to that outcome is less certain. It’s always less certain than the outcomes we’re targeting, and it’s probably a bit less certain still against the backdrop of the developments [in the Middle East]. And to be honest with you, I’d be lying if I told you otherwise. So what I hope we will be able to say [in a year] is that we have delivered on our macroeconomic mandate, and that interest rates are on a sensible path back to normality.

Reining in ‘toxic’ inflation

Hauser points out there are a number of “offsetting factors” as the board considers reining in inflation.

It’s worth us continuously reminding ourselves just how toxic inflation is. We’ve only just had an experience of that and we don’t want to go through that period again.

But he says “the Australian economy, in many ways, is in good shape”.

Growth has recovered quite materially over the past year. Unemployment is close to historic lows and compares very favourably internationally. And average levels of wealth and income in the economy are pretty good by international comparisons. But we have a problem with inflation. It’s too high.

The rise of AI in Australia

Hauser has just flown in from the United States, and says artificial intelligence (AI) remains the dominant topic of conversation in economic circles there.

Of the many conversations I had in the US when I was out there, fully 80% to 85% of them were dominated by discussions about AI. What was it going to do to employment in the US? How is it going to change the organisation of companies? How is it going to drive productivity growth? What was it going to do to social cohesion?

While Hauser says Australia is “not at the same level of advancement” or “maturity” in adopting AI as in the United States, he remains confident that Australia stands to benefit from AI overall.

Australia has time and again shown an incredible capacity to harness technologies and its natural raw material strengths and its national ingenuity and human capital to profit, frankly, or to benefit from challenges in the global economy. And, secretly, I am more optimistic than many people I speak to here that Australia might pull that off again.

ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Middle East war set to push inflation higher than forecast, warns RBA deputy governor – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-middle-east-war-set-to-push-inflation-higher-than-forecast-warns-rba-deputy-governor-277959

Australia is sending an aircraft and personnel to the Middle East. Does this mean we are entering the war?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Layton, Visiting Fellow, Strategic Studies, Griffith University

The Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) is off to another Middle Eastern war, which is likely a surprise to many given how contentious the country’s involvement in the Iraq war was.

The Albanese government has decided to send a RAAF E-7A Wedgetail surveillance aircraft to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), along with 85 personnel and a supply of air-to-air missiles capable of shooting down drones.

Wedgetail aircraft have been sent on similar operations before, not just to the Middle East but most recently to Europe as part of the NATO mission to help Ukraine.

Australia recently agreed to an economic strategic partnership with the UAE, but this military deployment appears to be part of a defence cooperation agreement that dates back to 2007.

So, does this mean Australia is now entering the war by sending military assets, including personnel, to the region?

Defensive role

The deployment, while doubtless agreeable to the Trump administration, is not intended to be part of the Israeli–US air offensive against Iran.

Rather, the E-7A Wedgetail will help the UAE defend itself after some ground-based, long-range air surveillance radar systems were damaged in attacks from Iran. The gap in surveillance coverage will be partly filled by the RAAF aircraft.

The aircraft is fitted with a high-performance air surveillance radar system and will be able to provide early warning of approaching air attacks, most likely from Iran’s Shahed drones.

The aircraft will do this by providing digital tracking data of incoming hostile aircraft and drones to the UAE’s surface-to-air missile systems and fighter aircraft, so they can respond.

An RAAF E-7A Wedgetail aircraft in Sydney last year. Dan Himbrechts/AAP

The UAE has a very sophisticated air defence system that so far has intercepted over 1,000 Iranian ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones.

This extraordinarily large number of interceptions means its large stockpile of interceptor missiles is gradually being depleted. As a result, Australia is also transferring some of its AIM-120 advanced medium-range, air-to-air missiles (AMRAAM) to the UAE to help it intercept drones.

Australia placed a replenishment order to the United States for more of these missiles last year. The missiles now going to the UAE are probably older versions that have been in Australia’s stock for many years.

South Korea is rushing Cheongung-II interceptors to the UAE to help it defend against ballistic missiles, as well.

A history of air support in the region

The E-7A Wedgetail aircraft will presumably be deployed to the Al Minad airbase, some 40 kilometres south of Dubai. The Australian Defence Force has operated there since 2003. It maintains a small permanent presence at the base to support ADF operations across the Middle East.

Last week, the Albanese government announced it was deploying a C-17 large transport aircraft and a KC-30A air-to-air refuelling aircraft to the region. These planes are now assumed to be at Al Minad, too.

The RAAF previously deployed E-7A Wedgetail aircraft to the region from 2014–20 to support the US-led military operations against Islamic State in Iraq. The RAAF personnel going there now, therefore, will be quite experienced in operations in the region and the dangers involved.

The Al Minad airbase has already been hit by Iranian missiles and drones, but these had little effect.

Nevertheless, there is still a risk the E-7A Wedgetail could be damaged while parked at the air base.

Possible issues that could arise

This deployment does not mean Australia is entering a combat role in the war. It will instead have an enabling role – bolstering the UAE’s air defence.

Even though the E-7A Wedgetail has a clearly defensive purpose, the deployment could still be seen from the Iranian perspective as support for the US-Israeli air offensive.

In an indirect way, it could help the US. The RAAF deployment will reduce the need for the US to help defend the UAE, potentially freeing up US forces to strengthen its attacks on Iran. The Australian government’s messaging appears aimed at trying to avoid people drawing this conclusion.

More worryingly, Australia could potentially become enmeshed in other operations now that it has assets there.

For example, Iran has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz to shipping traffic, disrupting the flow of oil and gas to the world.

If the US Navy takes military action to forcibly open the strait, it is possible Australia could be called on to support this, initially using the E-7A Wedgetail already in place.

French President Emmanuel Macron has said his country and its European allies are preparing a “purely defensive” mission to escort ships through the strait once the “most intense phase” of the war ends.

Australia could be asked to join this effort, as well, putting its aircraft at risk of attack from Iran. Given Australia’s oil supplies and fuel costs are greatly impacted by the closure of the strait, the government would find it difficult to say no.

The deployment of the E-7A Wedgetail may then be an early warning that Australian military involvement in the Middle East is about to escalate as it did with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and against Islamic State.

Like the Persian Gulf nations, Australia could become trapped and dependent on decisions that will be “mutually” taken by US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

ref. Australia is sending an aircraft and personnel to the Middle East. Does this mean we are entering the war? – https://theconversation.com/australia-is-sending-an-aircraft-and-personnel-to-the-middle-east-does-this-mean-we-are-entering-the-war-277958

Too valuable to burn? Chemical and plastic industries will rely on oil far longer than motorists

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mehdi Seyedmahmoudian, Professor of Electrical Engineering, School of Engineering, Swinburne University of Technology

Every year, the world uses roughly 37 billion barrels of oil. Most is burned to power cars, trucks, planes, ships and other types of transport. For more than a century, this energy-dense hydrocarbon has shaped the modern world, from geopolitics to electricity systems.

But this dependence on oil for transport comes with clear vulnerabilities. Combustion engines burning petrol, diesel or gas worsen climate change. Oil accounts for a third of all greenhouse gas emissions from fuel. Many countries rely on oil imports, which means oil has to be extracted and shipped long distances. Right now, oil prices are soaring after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil and gas is shipped. In response, governments may have to release strategic reserves, while stock markets have fallen and analysts are warning of sudden inflation.

As electric vehicles rise to 25% of new car sales globally, demand for oil as a fuel is expected to plateau and eventually decline. We can already see this in China’s very rapid shift to electric vehicles, trucks and bullet trains, which has slowed its oil demand growth.

This doesn’t mean an end to oil. We will likely need it as a raw material for useful products for decades yet. The International Energy Agency predicts petrochemicals will become the main driver of demand this year. Researchers have argued oil is likely to become increasingly important as a feedstock – and could become too valuable to burn.

Oil is far more than a fuel

Crude oil is an extremely versatile substance, able to be refined and separated into many different products. Two of these products – naptha and ethane – are the main feedstock for huge petrochemical industries manufacturing plastics such as polyethylene and polypropylene, synthetic fibres such as polyester, industrial solvents and cosmetics.

Oil is also essential for advanced materials such as carbon fibre, synthetic graphite and plastics embedded in electric vehicles, wind turbines, power electronics, insulation systems and grid infrastructure.

You might have seen this fact pointed out on social media to score points against environmentalists. But there are clear differences between burning oil for fuel – which can only be done once – and using it for materials that will stay in use for years or decades. Some of these materials can be recycled.

Oil used in this way is more like a mined product than a fuel. It is stored in products rather than immediately released as emissions.

The main way we make plastics requires oil as a feedstock.

Electrification is changing demand for oil

Electric vehicles charge their batteries with electricity, which is typically produced domestically. Electricity production, too, is shifting to clean sources – renewables, grid-scale batteries and digital energy management. These two trends should reduce demand for oil as fuel.

This isn’t a given. It relies on networks of EV chargers and new charging hubs for electric trucks and buses. The power grid has to be expanded and strengthened. Microgrids and community energy systems can boost resilience and cut demand for diesel generators in remote areas.

Other sectors will remain dependent on oil as a fuel for longer. While pure electric planes and ships are emerging, range limitations mean hybrid electric-fuel models are more likely to succeed until technologies improve.

Petrochemicals still cost the environment

While manufacturing plastics from oil does less damage to the atmosphere than burning it for fuel, it still comes at an environmental cost. Refining oil to make plastics accounts for 3.4% of the world’s carbon emissions as of 2019, and this is likely to rise significantly.

If petrochemical industries such as plastics expand as dramatically as predicted, it will intensify existing problems with plastic pollution, marine plastic and microplastics. Strong recycling and waste management can counter this, but only to a degree.

oil refinery seen from air. smokestacks with smoke, complex industrial buildings.

Oil has become ubiquitous in modern life – not just as an energy dense fuel, but as a feedstock for thousands of petrochemical products. Tom Fisk/Pexels, CC BY-NC-ND

If oil shifts from fuel to feedstock, governments will have to amp up circular economy efforts to ensure products can be reused or recycled, boost recycling rates and avoid waste entering the environment.

In the longer term, we will need to look for alternatives to oil across its many uses. These could involve using pyrolysis to turn plastics back into oil so they can be used again, or looking to green chemistry approaches to convert biomass into feedstock.

What should we do?

Shifting away from using oil as fuel won’t happen overnight.

To soak up more renewables, power grid operators are adding energy storage and using digital tools and advanced control to maintain reliability and quality. This will be essential if transport is to go electric and petrol and diesel use is to fall.

The public EV charger network has to be widespread and reliable. Emerging very fast charge technologies could slash charging times. Allowing EVs to feed power back to the grid can help keep the grid stable and power prices reasonable – while rewarding owners.

Oil is not going to disappear any time soon. But over time, it’s likely to shift from a ubiquitous commodity sold at every service station to a more specialised role as a feedstock.

It will count as real progress on climate change if oil is no longer routinely burned as fuel. But if the oil industry simply shifts to petrochemicals, there will still be a significant environmental cost to pay.

ref. Too valuable to burn? Chemical and plastic industries will rely on oil far longer than motorists – https://theconversation.com/too-valuable-to-burn-chemical-and-plastic-industries-will-rely-on-oil-far-longer-than-motorists-276275

Lessons from the Covid-19 response inquiry

Source: Radio New Zealand

Former Prime Minister Dame Jacinda Ardern and former Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins heading to a post-Cabinet conference. RNZ / Samuel Rillstone

The Royal Commission of Inquiry into the pandemic on Tuesday afternoon released its second report, sparked by public disquiet that its first report did not dig deep enough.

The 500-plus-page report looks at what it calls some of the “most difficult and divisive responses around vaccines and mandates”.

“The adequacy of the processes used to assess and monitor the safety of vaccines” was one of those.

It eked out a pass mark, but with a very big but for the previous government’s efforts to shift the “team of five million” from an early, pretty effective elimination strategy to suppression and minimisation in 2021 and 2022.

“Many of the people we heard from expressed pain and anger about the impacts of the pandemic and response. Some of these impacts on people’s lives continue to this day,” the report said.

“It is clear, however, that ministers and officials were facing a series of complex, high-stakes decisions in a rapidly changing environment and were doing the best they could at the time. Evidence shows New Zealand had among one of the best pandemic responses in the world.”

Former Prime Minister Dame Jacinda Ardern and former Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins. RNZ / Angus Dreaver

‘Very bumpy ride’

It was, however, “far from smooth”.

A “very bumpy ride” was how Labour itself summed it up earlier in the day. Though its former top two, Dame Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson, also defended it: “We got a lot right. More than most.”

National immediately used the phase two report to pound Labour.

Asked if his predecessors were just being cautious – it was an unprecedented global crisis, as Labour pointed out – Health Minister Simeon Brown told reporters:

“I think they were putting options to Cabinet, which were not backed up by advice,” Brown said.

“And the reality is Chris Hipkins stood up every single day and he said to New Zealanders that he was making decisions based on advice by health officials… The reality is, in a number of these instances, he was not.”

Health Minister Simeon Brown. RNZ / Mark Papalii

They did not heed warnings from Treasury about inflation-stoking Covid-19 spending that half the time went on non-Covid things, Brown added.

“We are feeling those consequences today,” Brown said.

In a half-hour stand-up, Brown said “ultimately” 13 times.

“Ultimately, some of those decisions, you will have to put those questions to the ministers who made those decisions at the time as to why they made them,” he said.

Hipkins put their approach at the time entirely opposite: “considered, appropriate and guided by the best evidence available at the time”.

The decisions saved lives, though the responses caused hardship, he said.

NZ has so far reported 4500 deaths due to Covid-19 to the World Health Organisation. That is slightly fewer per capita than Australia, well below Canada’s and about four times less than the US and UK.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins, who was the Covid Response Minister at the time of the pandemic. RNZ / Marika Khabazi

What are the lessons for Next Time?

While everyone disagreed on what 20/20 hindsight has shown from the inquiry, everyone agrees on the need to do better now to prepare for next time.

So what are the lessons from phase two for Covid 2.0?

Two words: Be prepared.

“The stakes were immense. Each choice carried the weight and quality of lives in the balance. Yet policy-makers could not delay some hard choices,” the report said.

But the “lack of planning for alternative future strategies” that applied to PCR testing was a common shortcoming elsewhere, too.

Going in next time armed already with better research on pandemics and impacts, better strategies for getting the best advice, and some basic pandemic legislation are among the 24 recommendations.

Two more words: Be smarter.

“Decision-makers told us they learned the importance of giving people an end date, or some indication of ‘light at the end of the tunnel’,” the report said.

Without that, people resisted more and more.

Now we know for next time. But the country had to get a better grip on social impacts ahead of next time, by finding ways to build trust and social cohesion, and ways to demonstrate to people the hard science behind “hard choices”, the report said.

In addition to the main report, an extra 300 pages laid out what people who submitted to the inquiry said.

“People frequently told us that the vaccine mandates caused division in society that lingers to this day,” said this last report.

Things got out of balance. “Wobbles” was how it was put after the first phase report.

Cutting the ‘wobbles’

It needn’t have got that bad is one conclusion that can be drawn from the second phase report.

Lockdown decisions, for one, required weighing up health versus bank balances, from Gore to Papakura.

Decision-makers had to weigh up many more factors than public health goals and social disruption, and think about tomorrow, not just today and impacts on this group, versus that group, and eroding.

“Based on the evidence we have heard, that is exactly what they tried to do,” said the main report.

Trying came up short, though, when painful and untested initiatives created pressures, or helped birth mis-and-disinformation, that upset forecasts and analyses or exploited gaps in them, among a public increasingly prone to doubting the experts.

The officials doing the trying lacked enough analysis of lockdown’s impacts on education, for instance (page 270).

They lacked enough evidence fullstop.

“Ideally, though, decision-makers would have been better supported with clearer, more specific evidence about the effects of public health measures.”

That cut down the options to choose from.

“More comprehensive and robust response strategies should have been in preparation much earlier.”

Being smart required being prepared.

The first phase report ran to 716 pages; some of its lessons were discussed two years ago at the Science Media Centre.

There will not be a part three. The commission received more than 31,000 submissions from individuals and organisations, and obtained 8000 documents from government agencies.

“We are satisfied that we were thoroughly well-informed.”

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More than 1600 fines issued to Queenstown freedom campers since new rules

Source: Radio New Zealand

Queenstown Lakes District Council introduced new freedom camping rules in December, restricting campers to designated sites. Supplied

Freedom campers are falling foul of new Queenstown Lakes District Council rules, with about 18 people per day stung with $400 fines.

Campers in self-contained vehicles were restricted to 141 designated spaces across 15 sites in the district over summer, plus a handful of rural roadside spots and a free campground in Luggate

Between 1 December and 2 March, Queenstown Lakes District Council (QLDC) issued 1514 Freedom Camping Act infringements, largely for people parking in the wrong spot or overstaying time limits, and 108 Reserves Act infringements for parking on reserve land.

Freedom Camping Act infringements carried $400 fines, while Reserves Act breaches carried $800 fines, the council said.

QLDC responsible camping programme manager Amy Galloway said it was the highest number of infringements the council had issued since about 2019, but it had also been a bumper summer for freedom camping.

She said more than 7000 freedom campers used a new check-in feature on the QLDC website throughout summer, although the true number of campers was likely much higher.

“Observationally, we see those 15 restricted sites plus the Luggate Red Bridge pretty much full every single day. Campers are using our sites extensively,” she said.

She said the system was working well overall and people were pleased to have a regulated freedom camping system again.

“Generally speaking, campers are going to where we want them to go. Amongst that, there is some behaviour we need to correct, but like everything we’re constantly reviewing and trying to improve operations,” she said.

German traveller Fynn Stolz says he was stung with a $400 fine after parking outside a designated freedom camping site in Queenstown. RNZ/Katie Todd

Campers say demand outstrips supply

Camper Fynn Stolz from Germany said there were not enough spaces to cater to the number of freedom campers visiting the district.

He said he had struggled to find a park for his van each night.

“We go from one to another and see if any of the spots are free. Usually, at 4pm all the spots are taken, so you have to be really fast, one of the first. It’s kind of a race,” he said.

He was fined $400 this week after arriving at the Queenstown Events Centre late at night, when he missed out on one of the nine designated spaces and instead stayed overnight in a regular carpark several metres away.

“It wasn’t a good idea,” he said.

Another camper, Svenja Steger from Switzerland, said Queenstown’s rules were much “more difficult” than other places in New Zealand.

“It’s not as easy as other places to find a park,” she said.

When asked if the QLDC would consider adding more spaces to meet the demand, Galloway said the council encouraged campers to look at other options.

“I think if we provided more spaces, they would be full, but we would also like campers to consider using one of our great commercial campsites that we have in the district and also the many Department of Conservation campsites across the district as well. There are a variety of options for campers, ranging from free up to your more luxurious campsites,” she said.

She said freedom campers had flooded parking areas across the district last summer after the council’s previous bylaw was quashed by the High Court.

“I think sometimes when campers turn up, and they see a site is full, and they think, ‘oh well, I can just park here’. If everybody did that, then the carpark would soon become full, which is what we saw last summer as well – just the insatiable demand for free camping,” she said.

Fines in the Freedom Camping Act 2011 rose from $200 to $400 in 2023.

“I think word is spreading amongst campers that these are the rules and we take them seriously and they will be enforced,” she said.

‘Shitting in the bushes’

In Wānaka, the council temporarily closed a freedom-camping site at Allenby Place because of traffic-related safety concerns.

A group called Save Clean New Zealand has also been petitioning for the removal of three freedom camping spaces at Beacon Point.

Spokesperson Andrea Beryl said it was a pristine stretch of shoreline not fit for freedom camping, or at least the type of behaviour she had seen and photographed.

Freedom campers at the site were “clearly not using their onboard facilities,” she said.

“They’re shitting in the bushes. They’re meant to be self-contained and they’re not. It’s just being abused,” she said.

“We want responsible campers to go to responsible places where there are toilets and places to clean up.”

Data from the QLDC showed that of the 1514 Freedom Camping Act infringements this summer, 71 people were fined for being in a vehicle that was not self-contained.

One person was fined for depositing waste.

Beryl said damage was often done by the time the council issued an infringement notice.

“I don’t know how we change their attitude or how we educate the campers better, but it’s just not working. Then the council fine people after the fact that these problems have already occurred. It’s not preventative,” she said.

In a statement, a QLDC spokesperson said the council was watching to see whether the bylaw needed refinements and valued community feedback.

“Council fully acknowledges ongoing concerns within our community relating to freedom camping, including at Beacon Point,” the spokesperson said.

“It’s important to emphasise that the Freedom Camping Act applies nationally and permits this activity by default on most council land. Local bylaws are limited in both what they can address and the specific area to which they can apply. By balancing community concerns with what the Act requires us to do, the new bylaw is designed to ensure visitors continue to enjoy the experience of freedom camping here while addressing the concerns of residents,” they said.

“Councils, especially those with high volumes of visitors and low resident populations like QLDC, do not have sufficient tools to regulate freedom camping or fund visitor-related infrastructure to support this increasingly popular activity.”

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Academic’s warning over PNG settlement evictions – doomed to failure?

By Johnny Blades, RNZ Pacific journalist

A Papua New Guinean anthropologist has warned that a campaign by authorities to remove communities from informal settlements in Port Moresby will not solve growing social problems in PNG’s capital.

The government is determined to end the role of settlements as what Prime Minister James Marape describes as “breeding grounds for terror” as part of its law and order reforms, but recent evictions have run into problems.

Almost half of Port Moresby’s estimated population of around 500,000 live in settlements, often without legal title or access to basic services. Some of the settlements have become notorious as crime hotspots.

However, in late January, police moved into the settlement at 2-Mile, sparking clashes with residents that resulted in two deaths and numerous injuries.

Police then moved to evict another settlement at 4-Mile, but this met with a legal challenge which led to the National Court placing a stay order on the eviction.

While the campaign is essentially paused, Marape has said his government would soon announce a permanent plan to replace unplanned settlements with properly titled residential allotments.

He also apologised to residents affected by the evictions, in recognition that many law-abiding and hard working families have made settlements their home over the years.

Dr Fiona Hukula . . . settlements are long-established communities, stretching back decades. Image: Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat/RNZ

Urban drift
Previous attempts at evicting settlement communities did not exactly lay a template for the success of what authorities are trying to do in 2026.

In numerous cases, homes were destroyed or razed to the ground, people were left homeless and then simply moved to other areas of vacant land or ended up living with wantoks in other parts of Morebsy.

A PNG anthropologist who has done extensive work on settlements, Dr Fiona Hukula, noted that settlements are long-established communities, stretching back decades.

“Essentially, people came to work in the towns and the cities, like in Port Moresby, and so where there was low cost housing, or where people weren’t able to afford housing, they started living in settlements, and some of the settlements on the outskirts, there’s stories that they made some kind of connection and deals with the local landowners.”

Dr Hukula said over the decades, migration to the towns and cities had grown significantly, but the available housing had not kept pace.

Water services at a Port Moresby settlement. Image: RNZ

“People are just now coming into the city, really, to access better services, health and education. Some Papua New Guineans are coming to the city to escape various forms of conflict and violence.

“And this is now where we’ve seen just an influx of people coming into the city, and obviously there’s nowhere to live, and they live in settlements, and many of Moresby settlements are populated by families who have been there for several generations.”

‘Difficult thing I have to do’
Many of Moresby’s settlements are now populated by families who have been there for several generations. Removing people from these communities is a complex challenge.

“An eviction is not going to solve the problem, because people will just go and find somewhere else to stay (in Moresby), especially if they’re generational families who have lived in these settlements, who don’t necessarily have the ties back to their rural villages and their connections to their people in their village,” Dr Hukula said.

Adding to the complexities of the eviction drive are social connections forged in the National Capital District (NCD) over the years.

The head of the NCD Police Command Metropolitan Superintendent Warrick Simitab admitted that for him personally, leading the eviction exercises such as at 2-Mile had not been easy.

“It’s been difficult, because I grew up here. I grew up in NCD. For example in 2-Mile. Most of my classmates that I went to school together with, they live there. So for me personally, it’s a difficult thing that I have to do,” he told RNZ Pacific.

Papua New Guinea police .. . ran into problems at both 2-Mile and 4-Mile settlements. Image: RNZ/Johnny Blades

Simitab would not be drawn on when the evictions would start up again, saying things were paused while political leaders decide next steps.

Criminal hotspot
The local MP for Moresby South Justin Tkatchenko said the 2-Mile settlement had become a notorious criminal hotspot, and that the people of the city had had enough of it.

“Hold ups nearly every night and every day, women have been raped, attacked, citizens have been held up, cars stolen, injured, abused for nearly 20 years,” he said.

Things came to a head when police were shot at and those living in 2-Mile refused an ultimatum given by police to hand over the criminals, he explained.

Tkatchenko said the government was steadily working on resettling settlers with proper, legal allocations of land to live on.

“We have already allocated land and sub-divided that land for over 400 families in the 2-Mile Hill area and other areas. Some have already been resettled and moved, and others will follow suit,” the MP said.

Rainbow settlement in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea, where West Papuan refugees have stayed for years. Photo: RNZI / Johnny Blades

Dr Hukula acknowledged that crime linked to some settlements was an issue that the general population keenly wanted addressed.

But she said persisting with displacing communities from other settlements would not address the underlying cause of the problem.

‘Ticking time bomb’
“It is a ticking time bomb. It’s going to be like this, where there’s evictions and then people move. And the thing is that the cycle of violence continues, and that’s what we’re trying to address here, the crime.”

The anthropologist stressed that “not everybody in settlements are criminals”, saying the people who lived in settlements were often working people, “people who are doing the menial jobs in the offices, the office cleaners, the people who are drivers, all of these kinds of people also live in settlements.

“And so when they’re being kicked out, there are people who can’t go to work, children who can’t go to school”.

Dr Hukula has researched and written about how settlement communities have developed informal systems of settling disputes or addressing law and order problems such as through local komiti groups or village courts.

These provided a way in which the communities could maintain order and general respect between their people. But “because the settlements have just exploded now it’s not like necessarily everybody comes from the same area or the same province” she said, making it harder to maintain a social balance.

In Dr Hukula’s view, “the village courts and the community leaders still play an extremely important role in being that bridge” between the authorities and the settlement community, and should be supported to play that role.

She said one of the other main things the government could do to help the situation was “to make sure that there’s affordable housing for all levels, all kinds of Papua New Guineans”.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

MetService to keep public informed during times of tsunami risk

Source: Radio New Zealand

RNZ / Robert Smith

The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) says MetService will step beyond weather services to keep the public informed during times of Tsunami risk.

MetService would now include NEMA tsunami warning banners on its website.

NEMA director Civil Defence Emergency Management, John Price said the move would help to ensure New Zealanders got the emergency information they needed.

“Tsunami warnings only work if people see them and act on them, and we’re pleased to be working with MetService to keep people safe.

“This will bring together NEMA and MetService’s large audiences, so New Zealanders are more likely to get the information they need, when they need it,” Price said.

A NEMA spokesperson said the banners would link to the Civil Defence website for advice and information on how to keep safe.

They said the banners would not appear on the MetService app or push service notifications.

They spokesperson said NEMA was also exploring how automated tsunami messaging could be shared to other government websites to quickly get important information to as many people as possible.

The spokesperson encouraged people – in times of tsunami danger – to listen to their radio for updates and advice on what to do.

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Warning for employers skimping on sick leave as Covid wave hits

Source: Radio New Zealand

Collective immunity to Covid-19 is waning. AFP

Under-pressure employers taking a hard line on sick leave are being warned to take care with the rules.

There have been reports this week that the country’s collective immunity to Covid-19 is waning.

Wastewater analysis from PHF Science shows that the number of cases is currently at its highest rate for more than six months and the latest Health New Zealand figures show there have been 50 hospitalisations and 19 deaths with the virus in the past week.

Are we sicker than we used to be, and are our sick leave laws keeping up?

Research last year from Southern Cross and Business NZ showed the average number of sick days being taken in 2024 was 6.7, up from 5.5 in 2022. IT was the highest recorded. Manual workers took an average 7.5 days compared to 5.9 for non-manual workers.

In 2021, the minimum sick leave entitlement increased from five to 10 days.

At Auckland University, law school professional teaching fellow Simon Schofield, said he had heard of employers taking an increasingly stringent line in respect to sick leave. “That poses a number of risks for employers that are too aggressive.”

He said there were cases last year where employees had been refused sick leave when there was no medical certificate.

The Holidays Act does not require a medical certificate if people are away from work fewer than three days.

“That breached the statutory requirement and the employee resigned … and was successful in respect of a personal grievance for unjustified dismissal because the employer had failed to follow the requirements of the Holidays Act.”

He said absenteeism was increasing for a number of reasons.

“What happens is employers get increasingly irate. The result is they can mishandle what can be quite delicate situations, especially when you’re talking about disabilities and so forth.”

He said employers should get advice if they were not sure of their obligations.

“I do think that in these difficult financial times that employers are putting a lot of pressure on employees to be present in the office, but there are associated challenges with that, and I think employers need to be careful if they’re proposing to take a hard line in relation to some of these issues.”

Associate professor Paula O’Kane, from Otago University’s management department, said the rules were not keeping up.

She said while people were not sicker than they used to be, they were taking leave when they needed to and were being encouraged to do so.

There was more awareness of the implications of coming to work sick on colleagues, she said. “In essence by taking sick leave we’re hopefully not disrupting other people within the organisation. Because of Covid we learned a lot more. We may have known it but I think we were made much more aware of the implications of those colds and flus and the infectious diseases on people.”

She said there was a lot of inequity in the way sick leave was offered.

Not allowing people to accrue more than 20 days’ sick leave left them vulnerable, she said.

“If you had cancer, for example and were off for six months, had never taken a day’s sick leave in your life, you’d have 20 days, Someone else could take their 10 days every year and they wouldn’t have that much difference… I think we’re not doing enough to accrue sick leave and to enable people to have that whenever something really serious happens.”

The government is making changes that will mean that annual and sick leave will accumulate based on hours worked, rather than as a set entitlement. Workplace Relations Minister Brooke van Velden said it would be more proportionate for part-time workers.

But O’Kane said the government had missed a chance to make it more equitable and fair for everyone.

“We could be doing a lot more around lots of types of leave to really support society and how society has changed over the years in terms of responsibilities and caring. We don’t have that village around us anymore.

“A lot of people don’t have the grannies there, the granddads there, the neighbours that can help when things go wrong. And so when society shifted like that, we probably need to be shifting our policies to help support that.”

Schofield said he supported the idea of dividing carer leave and sick leave up.

“Currently in this country we put carer’s leave and sick leave together. If I’m looking after my children who are sick we put that in the same bucket as sick leave. In Australia they divided the two out.

“That may be an opportunity to solve some of the problems that will be created, certainly some of the pushback that we’re seeing in relation to the employment leave bill, where part-time employees will have a prorated entitlement to sick leave.

“Often that’s covering carer’s leave…You’re looking after children. Often those women, the people looking after those children are women, and often they’re the ones working part-time.”

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Major porn sites have blocked Australian users to protest new laws. Will kids be better off?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Giselle Woodley, Lecturer and Research Fellow in Communications and Sexologist, Edith Cowan University

Over the past couple of days, Australian users trying to access some of the most popular porn websites hit a dead end. Sites such as Pornhub have prohibited all Australians from accessing pornographic content.

The blocks came just days before the official start of new online safety codes from the eSafety commissioner, which require organisations to verify the ages of users.

This new phase of online regulation aims to crack down on content, including what eSafety describes as “lawful but awful”. Platforms with content featuring pornography, violence and self-harm, suicide or disordered eating are to take meaningful steps to prevent under 18s from accessing material.

The United Kingdom, France and almost half the states in the United States have also been blocked.

The consequences of such a move are broad-reaching. It remains to be seen how effective these laws will be at preventing children from accessing graphic content.

What are the new rules?

Much quieter than the social media ban, the industry codes aim to regulate online services to protect children. The eSafety commissioner announced the new rules last September, to come into force on March 9.

The codes require age-assurance mechanisms and platforms to filter, de-prioritise, downrank and suppress content deemed age inappropriate. Tech companies will have more power (and responsibility) to remove content and suspend users.

A screenshot of a black Pornbhub webpage saying they're not accepting new accounts from your region.

Pornhub has restricted viewership to only those Australians who already had an account on the website. Author provided

Companies that don’t follow the codes risk fines of up to US$49.5 million (A$77 million).

In response, adult websites Pornhub, RedTube, YouPorn and Tune8 have restricted Australian users of all ages. The sites owned by the same parent company, Aylo, said in a statement:

Australia is following a similar approach to the UK, which all our evidence shows does not effectively protect minors, and instead creates harms relating to data privacy and exposure to illegal content on non-compliant platforms.

These websites are declining to participate, citing concerns over the security of their user data, which contains more sensitive data due to the intimate content being consumed.

Kids and porn

Our research involves talking to Australian teenagers about what they think of online porn and how to address unwanted impacts.

Their views are mixed. Some cite porn as a useful source of explicit information, offering visual representations of sex and bodies. Others feel it’s harmful and can lead to unrealistic expectations about sex.

A black and orange webpage with four video advertisements.

Pornhub’s sexually explicit content has been removed, and only advertisements remain for viewers. Author provided

Broadly, our research participants show a high degree of online literacy.

Pornhub is the most well‐known porn website, under pressure to uphold better regulatory standards than its competitors, something teen participants in ECU research pointed out. Nicola told us:

Pornhub’s there now [operating at a higher standard] because that’s a main one, so they have more regulations […] but there’s others that I feel have less regulation to them.

Pornhub has avenues for people to request illegal or non-consensual content to be taken down. People may encounter darker, less regulated sites when searching for alternatives that may not offer such reporting options.

Teens in our research said industries and governments should do more to ban younger children, but shared that banning content makes them want to access it more.

Stigmatising sex

Consenting adults legally allowed to view porn are caught in the crossfire. These changes also affect the livelihoods of sex workers working in online spaces and people working in the adult entertainment industry.

Views on pornography are also shaped by personal beliefs, values and worldviews. Blanket banning of pornography websites raises ethical and philosophical debates about freedom of information and valid sexual expression.

While mostly used as a masturbatory aid to enhance sexual pleasure, media portrayals of pornography often disconnect it from this purpose. It’s instead positioned as dangerous. The strict regulation and banning of pornography reinforces this stigma.

There are many valid, well-documented concerns around harmful influences of pornography. These include reinforcing gender stereotypes, a lack of consent depicted on screen and potential impact on sexual scripts.

Less well circulated are the benefits to accessing pornography. For couples watching together, porn can ignite sexual desires. For individuals, it can be a source of stress relief or escapism.

Pornography has been identified as particularly beneficial for young LGBTQIA+ people who report it being the first place they could learn about their preferences and the practicalities of sex beyond the heteronormative.


Read more: Porn not ‘inherently harmful’, says first inquiry of its kind in Australia


The workarounds

People of all ages can still use VPNs (virtual private networks that make it look like they’re located elsewhere in the world) to overcome restrictions. VPN apps have already shot up in Australian downloads charts, just like they did in the UK when age verification was introduced.

These workarounds aren’t without their risks, since free VPNs can leave users vulnerable to hacking and targeted cyber attacks.


Read more: ‘Not available in your region’: what is a VPN and how can I use one safely?


While no age verification measure is completely effective, they still have value. Age verification can act as a first line of defence that can delay access, and will be useful in protecting young children from accidentally accessing unwanted content.

Differing personal views on porn aside, we’re entering a world of rising surveillance, reduced privacy and tighter control over what we’re permitted to view and engage with.

While protecting children is important, these shifts impact consenting adults too. Such moves deserve our collective concern and close attention.

ref. Major porn sites have blocked Australian users to protest new laws. Will kids be better off? – https://theconversation.com/major-porn-sites-have-blocked-australian-users-to-protest-new-laws-will-kids-be-better-off-277835

Taranaki man jailed for killing friend who looked upon him as an older brother

Source: Radio New Zealand

Rakai Jacob Thompson. RNZ / Robin Martin

The family of a Taranaki teenager killed by a friend – who he looked upon as an older brother – says they have lost a loving son, protective brother and cherished moko.

Rakai Jacob Thompson was jailed for five years for the manslaughter of 17-year-old Te Omeka Pairama Akariri-Buckley when he appeared for sentencing at the High Court in New Plymouth.

The Bell Block teenager died after being stabbed by 26-year-old Thompson following a botched night out in July 2024, attempting to rustle sheep to fill their freezers.

Tensions heightened during the night, culminating in an altercation at Thompson’s Waitara home, where he stabbed his friend, inflicting wounds to the chest and abdomen.

He later died in hospital.

A jury acquitted Thompson of Akariri-Buckley’s murder in December.

Te Omeka Pairama Akariri-Buckley, 17, died in 2024. Supplied / Police

Wearing a prison-issued white t-shirt, Thompson sat with his head bowed as members of the Akariri-Buckley whānau read victim impact statements to a room full of supporters, many of them wearing black t-shirts with Te Omeka Forever 17 printed on them.

After karakia were said, Donna Akariri told the court her son lived a life full of “aroha and purpose”, and she wanted to share the impact his death had on his whānau and friends.

“He was loving, talented, funny and full of life. He was a loved and devoted son, a loving, loyal brother, a cherished mokopuna, a treasured nephew, a playful uncle and a loyal, dedicated, loving partner.”

Akariri said the age-group representative rugby league player “had many passions, and he poured his whole heart into them”.

“He led haka for Puketapu School and Spotswood College, always standing proud, always giving it his all”.

He also loved music and the family had donated his drum kits to Manukorohi Intermediate in Waitara following his death, hoping others would take up his passion.

Akariri said her son was particularly close to his brother Don: “They got into mischief, laughed, cried and loved like they were twins”. She said he a devoted partner to his girlfriend, who cannot be identified for legal reasons.

“His death was sudden, violent and not just senseless, but his loving and caring generosity at that time was destroyed. It took him,” she said.

“It took from us, not only a son, but a future, his future, and the future that we imagined with him in it, we will never again feel the warmth of his loving, caring nature, or hear that spontaneous, infectious laughter that could life any room.

“I want everyone to know that Te Omeka was a beautiful, happy, loving, caring young man who always gave me a kiss goodnight and whenever he left home for the day. Followed with ‘Iove you mum’. He was loved deeply, and he loved deeply in return, his was a life full of promise.”

At the end of her victim impact statement, she turned and held a portrait of her son up towards Thompson, who kept his head bowed.

Friends and whānau of Te Omeka Akariri-Buckley gathered outside the New Plymouth Court. RNZ/Robin Martin

Fighting back tears, Akariri-Buckley’s girlfriend told the court that although the teenagers had only known each other a few months, they could already imagine a life together.

“But no, because surely his life was taken on this road right in front of me. I literally watched his life drain out of his body. I felt so hopeless. There was nothing I could do to help,” she said.

“I would not wish this pain on anyone. Every single day, I wish I could change what happened that night. There is now a huge gap in my life.”

Crown solicitor Prue Lange argued the seriousness of Thompson’s offending and the impact it had on the family and friends of Akariri-Buckley were aggravating factors ahead of his sentencing.

“The Crown suggests a starting point no less than eight years imprisonment.”

Lange argued the use of a 25cm boning knife to stab Akariri-Buckley, the serious nature of his wounds and a level of premeditation in Thompson’s offending put it at the more serious end of the scale.

“He had the knife in his hand, whether he took it outside, or was already outside, he then went straight to Te Omeka and DJ to aggressively confront them, and then used it intentionally against Te Omeka… Mr Thompson used entirely unnecessary and gratuitous violence.”

Lange acknowledged Thompson’s early plea, remorse and willingness to engage in restorative justice, but argued against a sentence reduction for self-defence or provocation. The victim had assaulted the defendant immediately before the fatal stabbing.

The Crown wanted a minimum non-parole period of half of the eventual end sentence.

Thompson’s defence counsel, Paul Keegan KC, put forward a starting point of between six and seven years in jail, pointing to the outcome of December’s trial.

“The prisoner Rakai Thompson appears for sentencing, having been convicted of manslaughter. The jury, of course, found Mr Thompson not guilty of the murder.”

Keegan rejected the Crown’s depiction of Thompson “lying in wait’ for Akariri-Buckley and his brother and argued his actions were essentially defensive “albeit excessive”.

“The human tragedy of this incident is only made more profound when considering Mr Thompson’s link to Te Omeka,” he said.

“Mr Thompson did not intend to kill Te Omeka and counsel submits that in those frantic few seconds, he simply did not turn his mind to the potential consequences of his actions.”

Keegan argued that Thompson was a low risk of reoffending and a minimum non-parole period was not necessary.

Justice Jason McHerron began his sentencing by acknowledging the friends and whānau in court and praising Thompson for his quiet demeanour.

He didn’t find the defendant’s actions amounted to premeditation, but agreed he was enraged and the force that he used “was clearly excessive”.

Justice McHerron had a starting point of seven-and-a-half years in jail, reflecting the use of a weapon and the seriousness of the injuries, but gave discounts for Thompson’s early guilty plea, remorse and the effect of his imprisonment would have on his young daughter, before arriving at a jail term of five years.

He didn’t impose a minimum non-parole period.

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‘A little short of a disaster’: Little Penguins mauled by dogs at Piha

Source: Radio New Zealand

Auckland Council says dog owners must be aware of the rules and read the signs at West Coast beaches to keep Kororā safe. RNZ/Jessica Hopkins

Lying on the rocks and left to die, with puncture wounds, exposed bones, and sometimes missing limbs.

According to conservationists, that is the state Little Penguins/Kororā are being found in on coastlines around the country, and irresponsible dog owners are to blame.

Auckland’s West Coast beaches were a particularly egregious hotspot for dog attacks on penguins.

Peter Hosking from Pest Free Piha said that earlier this year, five Piha penguins were killed by a dog in just one night.

“It was a shock. We only have a handful of birds nesting here. And to lose five in one night was a little short of a disaster,” Hosking said.

“It’s hard to say exactly how many [Kororā] there are at Piha, but it’s fewer than 15, so to lose five in one night is a big loss to the penguin community here.”

From late summer to autumn, penguins shed their old feathers to grow new ones, and they cannot return to sea during that time. It was then that most dog attacks happened.

Hosking said 13 adult Kororā had died at Piha this moulting season, nine of which were confirmed to have been attacked by dogs after post-mortem examination.

At North Piha, dogs were allowed to be off-leash. But Hosking said owners were letting their dogs run free in areas where they should not be, close to penguin habitats.

Auckland Council appointed a dog control ranger just for Auckland’s West Coast four years ago to enforce the rules.

But Hosking said it did not matter that people were compliant during the day if others allowed their dogs out at night, when penguins went wandering.

“Some of the attacks here have occurred at night, which is an indication that people are not keeping their dogs under control at that time. And of course, at night, it is less likely there will be dog patrols or people around to do anything about a dog that’s out of control,” he said.

“It’s pretty clear that it is dog owners, probably in North Piha, who allow their dogs to be out outdoors and off-leash at night, so we’re trying to educate all dog owners, but especially those people that they need to have their dogs under control at all times and at night in a kennel or inside their properties.”

Auckland Council says dog owners must be aware of the rules and read the signs at West Coast beaches to keep Kororā safe. RNZ/Jessica Hopkins

Dr Rashi Parker, from BirdCare Aotearoa, which treats sick or injured native birds, said two of the Kororā brought to them this moulting season were confirmed to have been attacked by dogs.

She said one was recently attacked at Anawhata, a West Coast beach where dogs are prohibited.

“There’s a continued concern from community groups involved with conservation initiatives along the West Coast that there are off-leash dog incidents often involving locals themselves. It’s not visitors coming into the area, it’s locals doing this.”

BirdCare had cared for five penguins confirmed to have been attacked by dogs in the past five years.

But BirdCare rehabilitation assistant Catriona Robersto suspected that 18 of the injured penguins brought to them this moulting season could also have been injured by dogs.

She warned that even small dogs could cause significant and often fatal injuries.

“Most people with a puppy at home will love to play tug of war with them, and it’s really cute in the setting of the home. But out in the world, they’re inherently going to pick up something that is, let’s face it, shaped like a cuddly toy, grab it and shake it. And we often see the sort of ragdoll injury in penguins that come into us,” Robersto said.

“Recently, we had a penguin that ended up with really bad neck torsion to the point where it couldn’t move normally at all because its neck was so stunted from having been shaken around. We had another case come through where that shaking behaviour had actually ended up causing huge lacerations.

“I’ve worked in a professional capacity with these birds for a while now, and I haven’t seen anything damage a bird that way, shy of a moving vehicle.”

She said it was heartbreaking to see Kororā that would have otherwise been healthy, had a dog not got to them.

“It’s poor dog ownership. Because it’s as simple as keeping them on a leash in an area that’s known to have penguins or suspected to have them,” Robersto said.

“All of us here at Bird Care feel like we’re screaming into the void because it is such a simple fix and those breeding adults are so vital to the survival of these species.”

Auckland Council Animal Management West team lead Clarke Trethowen said the West Coast Beach Patrol officer had issued seven infringements, three formal warnings, and a high volume of verbal warnings this moulting season.

He said they had received multiple reports of dead penguins, mainly on Piha beach, which appeared to have been attacked by an animal.

“Unfortunately, no evidence has been obtained to identify the dog responsible and allow for a prosecution.”

“The West Coast beaches have a diverse environment where many animals live, breed and visit. It is important that all dog owners are aware of the rules and read the signs before entering the beach to avoid enforcement action and to ensure our beaches can be shared safely by everyone.”

Melissa Mcluskie, from the New Zealand Penguin Initiative, said dog owners nationwide needed to be vigilant.

She said Auckland was not the only place where they were seeing a large number of attacks. They were also happening in Wellington, Kaikoura, Northland, and the Bay of Plenty.

“Penguins are very smelly and attractive to dogs and so they’re easy for dogs to locate. When dogs are off-leash, uncontrolled, or unsupervised, they could be going into penguins’ habitats, killing a bird and then walking away and the owners have no awareness whatsoever what happened.”

She said not all Kororā killed would be found or sent to a rehabilitation centre like BirdCare.

“The ones that are lucky enough to be rescued and go through the rehabilitation process are documented. But not all of those will be examined or sent off for a necropsy. Due to penguins’ dense feather plumage that covers their bodies, it’s not always obvious that they have been attacked or killed by a dog, so they do need to have a proper necropsy examination. And there are a lot of birds that have likely been attacked by dogs that we are unaware of,” Mcluskie said.

“Another issue is sometimes a bird that’s actually still alive may be put in the dunes or under some vegetation. That actually puts it at risk of being attacked by a dog that may go and walk through the dunes.”

As well as reporting attacked penguin sightings, she urged people to be alert for any penguins wandering on the beach during the daytime

.

“Healthy birds will be coming ashore at night time or they will be tucked away safely away in their burrows or nest boxes. So if you’re seeing a bird that’s out on the beach during the day, it’s not normal. It’s likely sick, injured or starving and it needs help.

“There is a number of community groups around the country that monitor their local colonies, and most of them are willing to rescue a bird and get it the right help that it needs.”

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Public criticism of staff by Dunedin City councillor serious breach of code of conduct

Source: Radio New Zealand

Benedict Ong complained about the staff member to the council’s chief executive and two journalists. Supplied

A Dunedin City councillor was in serious breach of the council’s code of conduct when he publicly criticised a staff member, an independent investigator has found.

Benedict Ong sent an email complaining about the staff member’s performance to the council’s chief executive and two local journalists in February.

Dunedin councillors are set to consider possible sanctions for Ong at a meeting on 25 March, which could include a demand for a public apology or a vote of no confidence.

Ong will also be given a chance to defend himself.

The independent investigation led by barrister Steph Dyhrberg found that Ong’s actions could have been a deliberate attempt to retaliate against the staff member and discredit her.

“By disclosing the allegations to the media, Cr Ong breached the requirements to treat all employees with courtesy and respect and avoid publicly criticising any employee,” she said.

Councillor Ong had earlier filed his own code of conduct complaint against councillor John Chambers, saying he had made inappropriate remarks during a meeting.

An investigator reviewed the evidence, including a transcript of a phone call with a council staff member, and found that Ong’s version of events was not supported.

The complaint was dismissed because it lacked substance.

On 4 February Ong wrote to the chief executive and journalists accusing the council staff member of “apparent political bias” and a “lack of political neutrality”.

While he did not name the staff member, she was found to be “readily identifiable” to journalists.

Dyhrberg said Ong had already been put on notice several times about maintaining confidentiality.

“It is reasonable to infer Cr Ong knew what he was doing was inappropriate,” she said.

“No-one should be victimised or discredited for agreeing to participate in a code of conduct complaint process.”

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Iraq war’s aftermath was a disaster for the US – the Iran war is headed in the same direction

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Farah N. Jan, Senior Lecturer in International Relations, University of Pennsylvania

The United States military achieved every objective it set when it went to war in Iraq in 2003. Decapitation: Saddam Hussein was captured, tried and hanged. Air dominance: total, within days. Regime collapse: The Iraqi government fell in 21 days.

Now, consider Iraq more than 20 years after the U.S.-Iraq war. Iraq is still an authoritarian state governed by political parties with deep institutional ties to Tehran. Iranian-backed militias operate openly on Iraqi soil – some holding official positions within the Iraqi state.

The country the U.S. spent US$2 trillion and 4,488 American lives to remake is, by any reasonable measure, within the sphere of Iran’s influence.

As an international security scholar specializing in nuclear security and alliance politics in the Middle East, I have tracked the pattern of U.S. military success across multiple cases.

But the military outcome and the political outcome are almost never the same thing, and the gap between them is where wars fail.

Two and a half millennia ago, Thucydides recorded the Athenian empire at its most confident in his “History of the Peloponnesian War”: “The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” Athens then destroyed Melos and launched the Sicily Expedition with overwhelming force and no coherent theory of governance for what came next.

The lesson, then and now, is not that empires cannot destroy. It’s that destruction and governance are entirely different enterprises. And confusing them is how empires exhaust themselves.

The U.S. military can destroy the Iranian regime. The question that the Iraq precedent answers – with brutal clarity – is what fills the power vacuum when it does?

The military and political ledger

In April 2003, American L. Paul Bremer arrived in Baghdad as the head of the Coalition Provisional Authority, which served as a transitional government, and issued two orders that would define the next two decades.

Order 1 dissolved the ruling Baath Party and removed all senior party members from their government positions, purging the administrative class that ran its ministries, hospitals and schools. Order 2 disbanded the Iraqi army but did not disarm it. Approximately 400,000 soldiers went home with their weapons and without their paychecks.

Washington had just handed the insurgency – the Sunni-led armed resistance that would turn into a decade-long war – its recruiting pool. The logic behind Bremer’s de-Baathification was intuitive: You cannot build a new Iraq with the people who built the old one. The logic was also catastrophic

A man in a suit and tie walks in a desert.

L. Paul Bremer prepares to board a helicopter in Hillah, Iraq, during a farewell tour of the country on June 17, 2004. AP Photo/Wathiq Khuzaie

Political scientists have long observed that countries are held together not by ideology but by organized coercion. That is, by the bureaucratic machinery, institutional memory and trained professionals who keep the lights on and the water running. Destroy that machinery, and you do not have a clean slate. You have a collapsed state, and collapsed states do not stay empty of leadership.

They fill, and they fill with whoever has the most organizational capacity on the ground. Iran had been building that capacity in Iraq since the 1980s, cultivating Shia political networks, exile parties and militia groups during and after the Iran-Iraq War and beyond with the explicit goal of ensuring a post-Saddam Iraq would never again threaten Iranian security.

Tehran did not need to build infrastructure in Iraq after the U.S. invasion, because it had spent the previous two decades building it. When the old order collapsed, Iran’s networks were ready.

The opposition the U.S. had cultivated in IraqAhmed Chalabi and the Iraqi National Congress – had Washington’s ear but no Iraqi constituency. They had not governed the country, or built networks inside it.

The lesson is that military success created the precise conditions for political catastrophe, and that chasm is where American strategy has gone to die – in Iraq and in Libya, where the Obama administration helped bring about regime change in 2011, but where political instability has endured since. And perhaps now in Iran.

The vacuum is not neutral

The fundamental misunderstanding at the heart of American regime-change strategy is the assumption that destroying the existing order creates space for something better.

It does not.

It creates space for whoever is best organized, best armed and most willing to fill it. In Iraq, that was Iran.

The question now is who fills it in Iran itself.

In Iran, the group that meets all three criteria – organized, armed and willing – is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Revolutionary Guard is not simply a military institution. It controls an estimated 30% to 40% of the Iranian economy and runs construction conglomerates, telecommunications companies and petrochemical firms. And it has cultivated a parallel state infrastructure for decades.

Since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death at the start of the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign, the Revolutionary Guard has taken effective control of decision-making. As one Iran expert told NBC News: “Even if they replace the supreme leader, what is left of the regime is the IRGC.”

The succession confirmed it: Mojtaba Khamenei, with deep ties to the Revolutionary Guard, was named supreme leader on March 8, 2026. It’s a Revolutionary Guard-backed dynastic succession that represents maximum continuity with the old regime, not regime change.

You cannot dismantle the Revolutionary Guard without collapsing the economy, and a collapsed economy does not produce a transition government; it produces a failed state. Washington has already run that experiment in Libya.

You cannot leave the Revolutionary Guard in place without leaving the regime’s coercive core intact. There is no clean surgical option of dropping bombs, killing certain people and declaring it a new day in Iran.

The Iranian opposition in exile, the Mujahedeen-e-Khalq; the monarchists who support the return of the late-shah’s son to lead the country; and the various democratic factions all present the same problem Chalabi did in 2003: Washington access, no domestic legitimacy.

Military men holding rifles march on a street.

Revolutionary Guard troops march in a military rally in Tehran on Jan. 10, 2025. Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images

The Mujahedeen-e-Khalq is listed as a terrorist organization by Iran and is widely despised inside the country. The monarchist movement has not governed Iran since 1979, and its corrupt, despotic leader was overthrown in the revolution. The democratic reform networks that had been building momentum inside Iran were not saved by the U.S. strikes. The regime had already crushed the movement in January, detaining and killing thousands.

Decades of research on rally-around-the-flag effects confirm what common sense suggests: External attack fuses regime and nation even when citizens despise their leaders. Iranians who were chanting against the supreme leader are now watching foreign bombs fall on their cities.

Iraq in 2003 had 25 million people, a military degraded by 12 years of sanctions, and no active nuclear program. Iran has 92 million people, proxy networks that would not disappear if Tehran fell – in fact, they would activate – and a stockpile of over 880 pounds of highly enriched uranium that the International Atomic Energy Agency has been unable to fully account for since the 2025 U.S. and Israeli strikes.

The question Washington hasn’t answered

Who governs 92 million Iranians?

President Donald Trump has said whoever governs Iran must receive Washington’s approval. But a veto is not a vision.

Approving or rejecting candidates from Washington requires a functioning political process, a legitimate transitional authority and a population willing to accept an American imprimatur on their leadership — none of which exists.

Washington has a preference; it does not have a plan. If the objective is eliminating the nuclear program, then why does Iran still hold an unverified stockpile of weapon-usable uranium eight months after the 2025 strikes? The strikes have not resolved the proliferation question. They have made it more dangerous and less tractable.

If the objective is regional stability, why has every round of strikes produced a wider regional war?

Washington has no answer to any of these questions – only a theory of destruction.

ref. Iraq war’s aftermath was a disaster for the US – the Iran war is headed in the same direction – https://theconversation.com/iraq-wars-aftermath-was-a-disaster-for-the-us-the-iran-war-is-headed-in-the-same-direction-277585

Jevon McSkimming asked to pay back taxpayer-funded hotel nights with Ms Z

Source: Radio New Zealand

Jevon McSkimming was sentenced in December to nine months of home detention. RNZ/Samuel Rillstone

Police Commissioner Richard Chambers asked disgraced former Deputy Commissioner Jevon McSkimming for a “swift reimbursement” of funds used to pay for up to 10 stays at hotels in Wellington during an affair.

Chambers wrote to McSkimming last week after the Independent Police Conduct Authority released a summary of its investigation into McSkimming’s decision to invite a woman he was having an affair with – Ms Z – to stay with him in hotel accommodation paid for by police, on numerous occasions, primarily in 2016.

In the letter, obtained by RNZ under the Official Information Act, Chambers referred to the IPCA’s report in relation to his “overnight status in Wellington hotels with Ms Z”.

“You have confirmed that 8-10 times you stayed with Ms Z in Wellington hotels at the expense of police, but ultimately the taxpayer. The IPCA made an adverse finding in this respect.

“It is appropriate for you to reimburse police for these 8-10 hotel stays, and you are asked to reimburse police as soon as possible. You have knowledge of the hotels in which you stayed and the approximate cost at the time.”

Chambers said he welcomed McSkimming’s response and “swift reimbursement”.

The IPCA said its investigation was “impaired by a lack of records of travel expenditure and credit card statements from the time, due to the nine to 10 years that has elapsed since the spending occurred”.

The IPCA had not been able to review McSkimming’s credit card expenditure, and relied on the evidence of the complainant, McSkimming, his former executive assistant and one of his supervisors at the time.

“In 2016 and 2017, Mr McSkimming’s workplace was at Police National Headquarters in Wellington. He lived about 60-70kms away.”

McSkimming and his executive assistant at the time told the IPCA that he was regularly required to attend functions or late meetings in Wellington or catch early morning flights.

“On those occasions, his executive assistant would book accommodation at a Wellington hotel, paid for by police. The rationale for these bookings was explained to us as being to avoid a long drive home after a work event, or where he was required to attend a social function to ensure he was not having a drink and then driving.”

McSkimming told the IPCA he thought Ms Z stayed with him eight to 10 times.

“This is corroborated by Ms Z. Mr McSkimming breached policy by not informing his senior manager approving the travel that she would be staying with him. If he had done so, we consider it highly likely that approval would have been declined.

“In any case, whether or not he informed his manager, he breached the Police Code of Conduct by staying in hotels at Police expense and inviting the woman with whom he was having a sexual relationship to join him. If he had paid for the hotels himself, that would have been a different matter. However, the fact that the hotels were paid for by police gives rise to the perception that he was using taxpayer money to further a clandestine affair, thus bringing police into disrepute.”

Police Commissioner Richard Chambers. RNZ / Samuel Rillstone

Chambers earlier said he was “very concerned” to learn of McSkimming’s use of hotels in Wellington and agreed with the findings of the IPCA.

“This showed a disregard for taxpayers’ money and Police expenditure policy.”

Chambers said the police policy for sensitive expenditure required spending to be reasonable and able to withstand parliamentary and public scrutiny.

Mitchell earlier said he welcomed the IPCA report and its findings, which showed the investigations conducted by police were appropriate and adequate.

“Any misuse of taxpayer money is, under all circumstances, unacceptable. I support the Commissioner in his efforts to recoup these expenses,” Mitchell said.

“It is my view that unless there are exceptional work-related circumstances, staff should not require hotel accommodation in the same centre as their normal place of work.”

McSkimming’s expenses

RNZ earlier requested a copy of all expenses made by McSkimming covering the time of his affair.

Police responded with a screenshot of an expenses claim from 2017 and credit card statements for McSkimming covering the 2018 calendar year.

“New Zealand banks retain credit card statements for seven years, after which records are no longer available. No additional expenses have been identified beyond those attached, and credit card records for 2016 and 2017 are no longer held as they fall outside the seven-year timeframe. Therefore, any additional credit card statements are unavailable, and police have no reason to believe these records are held by any other agency.”

McSkimming’s work credit card had a $2000 limit. The 2018 credit card statements reveal he spent some time in Canada and the United States early in the year.

On 6 April, McSkimming stayed at the Thorndon Hotel, about a five-minute walk from Police National Headquarters. The accommodation cost $121.

A significant number of expenses relate to purchases at Wellington International Airport.

In November 2018, there were some expenses at SkyCity Hotel in Auckland and a $229 payment for Audioblocks, as well as an $80 excess baggage payment in Wellington. There was also an $80 transaction at Queenstown Airport.

He also spent $112 at Millbrook Resort in Arrowtown.

In December, there was a $147 payment at Wellington International Airport, followed by a $98 payment later that month.

RNZ asked Richard Chambers for comment on the expenses detailed in the OIA.

“This happened a number of years ago and without detailed records of the reasons for this expenditure, I cannot say whether it was appropriate,” he said.

“However, these expenses would have been considered against the travel policy at the time and were approved by a supervisor.”

Chambers said it was appropriate for police policy to provide for reasonable expenses for executive travel.

“Those expenses can include the use of hotels, parking, petrol and transport such as taxis. Such expenses should only be for work-related purposes, reasonable, and able to withstand public scrutiny.”

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Rugby: Crusaders teammates trade punches as tensions spill over at training

Source: Radio New Zealand

Crusaders’ forward Kershawl Sykes-Martin is one of the players reported to have been involved in the dust-up in training. Joe Allison

Days after a significant loss to the Blues, tensions rose at Crusaders training on Tuesday with reports of punches thrown.

Stuff is reporting prop Kershawl Sykes-Martin and lock Will Tucker were involved in a dust-up at Rugby Park in Christchurch during a contact session.

Captain David Havili was reportedly the man to break up the altercation.

After training, coach Rob Penney did his best to downplay the tension, telling reporters he was not fazed by the clash between his players and even welcomed it.

“So there should be,” Penney said when asked if there was tension in the camp after the 29-13 defeat to the Blues.

“It was a really lovely sight to see, actually. It is a reflection of how much it means. The boys aren’t happy with the performances and the outcomes.

“Very proud young men are going to come up against each other, and create a bit of sandpaper from time to time.

“But it’s not a thing that is going to affect negatively. We are all over it, the boys are fine.”

Penney expected there could be more scuffles at training in the future.

“It’s not the first time and it won’t be the last.”

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National Party politicians rule out leadership bid

Source: Radio New Zealand

Education Minister Erica Stanford has often been tipped as a possible leadership contender. RNZ / Marika Khabazi

Education Minister Erica Stanford has been damning in her assessment of last week’s disastrous poll result for National, calling it a “bad week” for the party and for the caucus.

Speculation has been swirling about Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s leadership after the Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll result put National on 28.4 per cent – the party’s lowest result since Luxon became leader.

Asked on Tuesday whether she was happy with the result, Stanford – often tipped as a possible leadership contender – said: “No, of course not”.

“We’ve got to do a lot better as a party, all of us pull together, we’ve got to respect what voters are telling us,” she said.

In addition to the horror poll, Luxon also struggled to articulate the government’s position on the Iran conflict and flubbed his answers to questions on the same topic at his post-Cabinet press conference last week.

Asked whether it was a bad week for the prime minister, Stanford said the result reflected poorly on the party.

“I would say it’s a bad week for the National Party and our caucus, and we’ve got to do better all of us together, pull together and remember that our focus is on the New Zealand people, and in my case, raising student achievement,” Stanford said.

Any speculation she was vying for the top job was “reporters interviewing their own typewriters”, Stanford said, adding that she supported the prime minister “100 percent”.

On Tuesday afternoon, Stanford ruled out making any bids for the leadership.

“We have a leader, he’s doing a really good job, and I am part of a high-performing team just doing my job, reforming the education system.”

In a busy day in Parliament – when the Covid-19 inquiry report was released, National MP and Minister Shane Reti announced his retirement, and MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi was reinstated to Te Pāti Māori by the High Court – National Party ministers and backbenchers were resolute in their support of the prime minister.

Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka said he had “no intentions” to run for the top job. RNZ / Mark Papalii

Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka said he backed Luxon and looked forward to the coming election campaign.

Asked whether he wanted to be the leader, he repeatedly said he had “no intentions” to run for the top job but also refused to rule out a future bid.

“It’s got nothing to do with me… I’m not here to answer questions about me running for the leadership, because, as you know, I support the prime minister.”

Tim Costley, MP for Ōtaki, said that asking Luxon to step down, should his polling worsen, had never crossed his mind.

“We’ve got a strong caucus. We’ve got 49. We’re looking great.”

Banks Peninsula MP Vanessa Weenink said she was not concerned about her seat, which was one of the most marginal at the last election.

“I’m not worried about my job. I’m not worried about my seat. I’m worried about the country if we have an alternative government.”

Takinini MP Rima Nakhle put her level of support for the prime minister at “123 percent”, while Upper Harbour MP Cameron Brewer said the caucus was unified.

“We respect the guy, we’re tight, we’re disciplined, and you can see that with all our answers in the last 72 hours. You know, we actually just want to get on with the job.”

The prime minister himself continued to brush off concerns about the poll, telling reporters on Tuesday that the party’s caucus meeting would feature normal business, adding the team was “really united, really focused, really driven”.

But Labour leader Chris Hipkins blasted National for getting itself into “one heck of a mess”.

“They promised they were going to fix the economy, they’ve shrunk it. They promised they were going to get Kiwis into work, more Kiwis are unemployed now. They promised they were going to fix government debt, government debt’s gone up. They promised they were going to fix the cost of living, the cost of living’s got harder for New Zealand households.

“Whether it’s Christopher Luxon or one of the other ministers who was involved in all of those decisions leading the National Party, the problem is they haven’t done what they said they were going to do.”

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Move-on orders ‘not welcome here’, Wellington leaders say

Source: Radio New Zealand

The move-on powers announced in February will mean police can move on rough sleepers or people displaying disorderly behaviour as young as 14-years-old. RNZ / Richard Tindiller

The Wellington region’s mayors, as well as iwi, church and social support agency leaders, say the government’s proposed move-on orders are not welcome in the region.

An open letter decrying the introduction of powers to enable police to relocate people from certain areas – under threat of fines or imprisonment – has been sent to Prime Minister Christopher Luxon.

But Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith said the letter was “overly simplistic” and its signatories were “ignoring the facts”.

The letter – signed by 21 Wellington leaders – described the initiative as a “superficial and unhelpful” approach.

“Whilst we accept and understand that anti-social behaviour on the part of some must be able to be responded to, we don’t consider that moving a person to some other unspecified place fixes the problem, nor does anything to address the issues that individual is dealing with, and in fact, potentially causes significant harm,” the signatories wrote.

Breaching a move-on order – which would require someone to leave an area for up to 24 hours – risked a fine of up to $2000 or a three month jail term.

Community leaders ‘united’ in opposition – Mayor Andrew Little

Wellington City Mayor, Andrew Little, said it was important to show the government that leadership in the region was united in opposition to the legislation.

“What we’re all trying to do is just emphasise to the government that – if they’re serious about dealing with the issue – we actually need to be focussed on what the underlying solutions are. Not cosmetic measures that shift the problem to somewhere else,” Little said.

Little said he understood community and business concerns over rough sleeping and antisocial behaviour – but the initiative failed to offer any real solution to the problem.

“[The signatories] are all organisations that [have] people in the front-line dealing with the homelessness and rough sleeper issue and they don’t take their roles and responsibilities lightly. We know it causes concern to a lot of people – including people whose lives and business are disrupted by it. But the move on order – as a response to it – simply is not a solution,” Little said.

Legislation sends the wrong message to vulnerable people

Porirua mayor Anita Baker said the “vast majority” of people who found themselves on the streets we’re struggling with complex issues including mental health challenges, drug dependancy and a lack of appropriate services and housing options.

Baker said the legislation risked sending the wrong message to already disadvantaged people.

“It’s sending an indication to these people that we don’t really care. A $2000 fine, how are they even going to pay that? They can’t afford to be in a house so I think it is unhelpful.

We need more mental health services, we need more houses, how about providing those?” Baker said.

She said the legislation offered nothing to organisations already working to improve the circumstances of people living rough.

“Across the Wellington region there is already a strong collaborative approach between councils, police, health providers, housing organisations, iwi and NGOs.

“The focus is on outreach, connecting people to services, and creating pathways into stable housing. That work recognises that homelessness and related behaviour are usually the visible end of much deeper issues. Our priority will continue to be solutions that address those causes rather than measures that simply push the problem somewhere else,” Baker said.

Letter ‘overly simplistic’ – Paul Goldsmith

Goldsmith responded to requests for comment sent to Luxon.

He said the letter was “overly simplistic” and it’s signatories were “actively choosing to ignore the facts”.

“Only people who refuse those orders, will face prosecution. A move-on order, is not a criminal charge.

“This is about reclaiming our streets and our city centres for the enjoyment of everybody who visits, works and lives there” Goldsmith said.

Goldsmith said police had “the expertise to connect people with the support services they may require”.

“New Zealanders are fair-minded people, and our culture is one where we seek to help those who are in need, but that doesn’t mean we should accept our city centres, particularly our showcase tourist spots, becoming places of intimidation, and dysfunction,” Goldsmith said.

A protest against the move-on orders by people living and working in Auckland’s central city. Supplied

Police ‘overworked as it is’

Police Association head Steve Watt said police on the beat were “overworked as it is” did not have the resources to deal with the issues that led to people sleeping on the streets.

“The vast majority of people that are out on the street suffer from mental health issues, financial issues, anxiety issues. They’re all issues that really need to have specialist capability wrapped around them as opposed to police picking them up off the street and moving them along,” Watt said.

Watt said some members did welcome the additional powers but he felt the tools to deal with criminal behaviour on the streets were already available to police.

“There is legislation in place in order to deal with people that are on our streets, acting disorderly, being threatening towards members of the public or being offensive.

“We have powers under the Summary Offences Act in which we can deal with this. So what we’re talking about here is non-criminal activity and basically having an order to ship that problem down the street,” Watt said.

Legislation ‘another layer of mistreatment’

CEO of Te Rūnanga o Toa Rangatira, Helmut Modlik said the legislation would add “another layer of mistreatment” into already difficult lives.

“Moving somebody from one spot to an undisclosed second spot without any substantive response to the reason why they were there in the first place is – by my definition – ‘superficial’.

“We don’t want want anything that just adds another layer of mistreatment, or ignoring or unhelpfulness into the lives of these people whose lives are full of all of that,” Modlik said.

He said the legislation was far removed from what he understood to be the values of New Zealanders.

“Nobody likes to see extreme examples of homeless people making a nuisance of themselves. But if people take just a few minutes just to actually understand what’s going on for those poor souls – why they’re there and what’s going on – then a very different response is what follows.

“That should guide us. That should guide our public policy, that should guide our investable activity in this domain. Not a nod to a narrow spectrum of interests and a superficial response. Which is what it is.

“There’s nothing about it that aligns with my understanding of what kind of people we are here in Aotearoa,” Modlik said.

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

To help save NZ’s native species, we must move past the extinction blame game

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nic Rawlence, Associate Professor in Ancient DNA, University of Otago

Each time another study about human-driven species extinction hits the news in Aotearoa New Zealand, a familiar pattern unfolds in online comment sections.

As researchers in this field, we have seen how quickly new findings about biodiversity loss are overshadowed by a debate over who is responsible.

We have repeatedly encountered blunt statements such as “why should Māori have a say?” linked to arguments that Māori caused species declines.

Given the long dominance of European colonial perspectives in natural history and archaeology, it is perhaps unsurprising that such claims provoke strong responses.

Some Māori counter with statements such as “we didn’t cause moa extinction, we were the first conservationists”.

We have seen arguments that treasured species such as kuri (Polynesian dogs) would not have been allowed to go feral, and that the extinction of the Waitaha penguin was due to competition for nesting sites with hoiho yellow-eyed penguin, despite evidence to the contrary.

Such responses reflect frustration with research – and at times media coverage – framed in ways that appear to assign blame without sufficient context.

One news article on the translocation of takahē onto Ngāi Tahu land, for example, linked the species’ “decline” to land confiscations, despite evidence of a more complex history.

This isn’t a phenomenon unique to New Zealand. The causes of ecosystem modificationn on Rapanui (Easter Island) and megafauna extinction in Australia have been hotly debated. In Australia, responsibility has been variously attributed to human activity, climate change, or some combination of the two.

Ultimately, this blame game does little to advance understanding.

In Aotearoa, moving beyond it is essential if mātauranga (Māori knowledge systems) is to inform evidence-based kaitiakitanga (guardianship and stewardship) and the conservation of taonga (treasured) species.

Placing extinction in context

Throughout history, human expansion has often been followed by waves of extinction.

This is especially apparent in the Pacific, where island species – often slow-breeding and long-lived – have been especially vulnerable. Hunting for food, habitat clearance and the introduction of predators such as rats and dogs tipped ecosystems out of balance.

Eventually, a new balance was reached with humans as part of the ecosystem and the development of or modification of existing tikanga (customs).

Polynesians brought to Aotearoa kiore (Pacific rat), kuri and a suite of plants such as taro and kumara. With few available protein sources – there were no chickens or pigs – these earliest settlers relied heavily on hunting, particularly in southern Aotearoa where Polynesian horticulture was not viable.

Many species could not withstand even low levels of hunting, especially when combined with predation from introduced animals. People needed to eat, plain and simple.

Modelling suggests that for moa hunting to have been sustainable, more than half of the South Island would have needed to remain a “no-take” zone – and there is little reason to think the moa’s fate would have differed had Europeans arrived first.

Why language and inclusion matter

Effective science communication places findings in context and avoids language that overreaches the evidence or assigns unsupported blame.

A case in point was a recent study that described soot from human-induced forest fires in ice core samples retrieved in Antarctica and linked it to “Māori arrival in New Zealand”.

Some Māori saw the framing as suggesting responsibility for pollution in a region often perceived as pristine. There was considerable push back by New Zealand scientists, including Māori palaeoecologist Rewi Newnham, who showed the soot could have come from fires in Australia or South America around the same time.

It highlighted the problem of talking “about Māori without Māori” – and the importance of including Indigenous perspectives to ensure balanced interpretation of results.

We have seen similar tensions arise in discussions about rats. Pest eradication initiatives often treat all three rat species in Aotearoa as interchangeable, overlooking the distinct history of kiore.

While kiore undoubtedly contributed to ecological change, they were also a valued food source, seasonal indicator and taonga carried across the Pacific with intention and care.

Grouping kiore with Norway and ship rats oversimplifies that history and risks reinforcing the same binary thinking that underpins the extinction blame debate.

When nuance is stripped from species histories, our understanding of Māori relationships with animals are flattened. And opportunities are lost to learn from complex traditions of coexistence and management that could inform conservation today.

Moving forward with mātauranga

Society would do well to heed the whakataukī (traditional proverb) kia whakatōmuri te haere whakamua – to “walk backwards into the future with our eyes fixed on the past”.

Lessons from both Māori and Pākehā histories can help inform evidence-based kaitiakitanga, conservation management and sustainable mahinga kai (customary food gathering).

The knowledge gained from palaeontological and archaeological research should be viewed as an opportunity to give back knowledge to Māori lost due to colonialism, such as how Polynesians adapted to Aotearoa’s dynamic environment and evolved into Māori.

Within many Māori narratives of the natural world lie detailed ecological insights, shaped by generations of close relationship and observation.

These stories reflect deep understandings of population dynamics, seasonality and balance – knowledge grounded in lived experience and careful attention to place.

Reengaging with these ways of knowing alongside contemporary science offers more than historical understanding. It opens pathways toward more adaptive, relational and enduring forms of conservation in a rapidly changing world, such as is being done in the East Otago Taiapuri and between Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research and the Tūhoe Tuawhenua Trust.

Throwing blame about human impacts in the past is unproductive.

It is knowledge such as mātauranga, developed over centuries in Aotearoa and over millennia in other Indigenous cultures, alongside established conservation tools, that is needed to tackle Aotearoa’s ongoing biodiversity crisis.

ref. To help save NZ’s native species, we must move past the extinction blame game – https://theconversation.com/to-help-save-nzs-native-species-we-must-move-past-the-extinction-blame-game-276954

Gamblers can now bet on the outcome of wars – and that’s a problem

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Karoline Thomsen, Ph.D. Candidate, UNSW Sydney

The growing threat of conflict in the Middle East last week prompted a flood of activity in a little-known area of betting: prediction markets in which users can bet on a particular military action.

One user of the Polymarket betting platform won US$4,500 (A$6,350) by predicting the exact date of the United States striking Iran.

In total, Polymarket users bet more than US$4 million (A$5.65 million) on the US-Iran strikes occurring on February 28.

We are academics who have researched international criminal and humanitarian law and emerging trends in geopolitics on social media platforms.

So, what is Polymarket, how do these platforms work, and what are the potential risks?

What is Polymarket?

Polymarket is a cryptocurrency-based prediction market that offers an extremely wide range of foreign policy events for users to bet on.

Its main competitor, Kalshi, offers sports and policy bets, but not military bets.

The bets themselves are not gambling in a traditional sense, where the house sets the odds. Instead, it’s a contract where the price fluctuates much like shares traded on a stock exchange.

Users can suggest ideas for bets, but the bets are created by Polymarket.

The day-by-day US-Iran strike bet was accompanied by a series of other bets on the conflict, including:

  • the possibility of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz
  • when US troops would enter Iran
  • what targets Iran might hit.

Bets related to the current war in Iran totalled US$529 million (A$726 million).

Users can also gamble on the Russia-Ukraine war, using real-time war maps synchronised to the Polymarket app to inform their bets – the same maps Ukrainians check for survival.

All payments are made in cryptocurrency.

Polymarket does not charge trading fees, except on its 15-minute crypto markets. These are comparable to day-trading stocks – users have to trade them swiftly for financial gain.

Instead, it has been reported the business model relies on the sale of the data generated on the platform.

While Polymarket hasn’t revealed whether it sells the data it collects, in other financial contexts, data is a valuable commodity. It is regularly sold to policymakers, advertisers and researchers.

The Conversation contacted Polymarket for comment but did not receive a reply before this article’s deadline.

Bans and grey areas

Polymarket was launched in the US in 2020 but it was banned for American users from 2022–25. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission found it to be non-compliant with gambling legislation.

More than 30 countries reached similar findings and banned the platform, with some such as Australia geoblocking the site.

Polymarket argued it is not a gambling company because the odds are set not by the house, but by user-determined probability contracts.

This argument was favourably received by the 2025 Trump administration, which overturned the ban.

Donald Trump Jr is a major investor in Polymarket, a strategic advisor to Kalshi, and the director of an upcoming expansion to the Truth Social universe: Truth Predict (another prediction market).

The bets on offer on these platforms raise a host of legal, political and moral questions.

Benefiting from misery

Users are betting millions of dollars on what they believe to be the probability of the US striking Iran or the likelihood of a particular city of Ukrainian civilians being captured by Russian forces.

These gamblers stand to benefit financially from the pain of innocent civilians.

Reducing complex military decisions to a yes/no gamble dehumanises the civilians trapped in the conflict and potentially paves the way for malicious activity.

What if an official in power was influenced by the bets they or their constituents had placed when deciding precisely when to bomb another country?

What if it was revealed after a military strike that a decision-maker personally profited from the choice to press the button on a specific date, or to use a specific weapon for the strike?

Concerns about inside information

This is not as far-fetched as it sounds. Several Israeli soldiers are currently under arrest and are facing an internal investigation for allegedly using classified information to inform their bets on Polymarket about strikes Israel would or would not pursue.

The case of a man winning US$400,000 (A$570,000) just hours after placing a correct bet on when the US would capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has led to speculation of misuse of insider information.

Polymarket is designed to minimise transparency regarding who places what bets and based on what information.

Polymarket claims to offer anonymity to users but corruption allegations against a few mysteriously lucky bettors indicates that in some cases, users may be identified.

The value of data

The value of the data generated depends on who is buying it and what value they place on it.

Data from bets on US military action in Iran might attract a higher price from states in the region than data on the expected likelihood of a hurricane in South Carolina.

Polymarket might, therefore, issue more bets on extreme events that attract attention.

This, combined with the anonymous design, makes it a potentially dangerous tool of information warfare: very little prevents hostile actors from placing bets and polluting the public discourse.

A foreign state could place bets on the odds of a war in their interest, for example. This can change the public discourse and additionally impact the values of the bets, with financial implications for the other gamblers.

Further, by monitoring what bets are available, a hostile state can assess what issues to sew disinformation into.

How Polymarket manages its data is unknown. It is unclear what data specifically Polymarket stores, to whom it is sold and in which configurations, and what the data is used for by the purchasers.

But selling data on the public’s expectations of war requires much more scrutiny.

ref. Gamblers can now bet on the outcome of wars – and that’s a problem – https://theconversation.com/gamblers-can-now-bet-on-the-outcome-of-wars-and-thats-a-problem-277374

West Papua’s humanitarian crisis stalls Prabowo’s ‘global peacemaker’ credibility bid

ANALYSIS: By Ali Mirin

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has increasingly presented himself on the international stage as a mediator and promoter of peace.

Yet this global diplomatic posture raises a critical question: how credible is Indonesia’s claim to peace leadership while a prolonged humanitarian crisis continues in West Papua?

In late February 2026, Prabowo offered Indonesia’s services to mediate rising tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran, even stating he was prepared to travel to Tehran if both parties agreed to dialogue.

The message was reinforced when former Indonesian vice-president Jusuf Kalla met Iran’s ambassador, Mohammad Boroujerdi, on 3 March 2026 to reiterate Indonesia’s readiness to facilitate diplomatic engagement.

In response, Iran publicly welcomed the gesture but tempered expectations.

Iranian officials insisted that any meaningful mediation must include condemnation of US and Israeli military actions, warning that diplomatic initiatives without political clarity may have limited effectiveness.

The exchange highlighted both Indonesia’s aspiration to play a larger diplomatic role and the complexities of international conflict mediation.

Peacebroker limitations
However, Indonesia’s attempt to position itself as a global peace broker has already faced significant limitations. In 2023, Prabowo proposed a peace plan for the war between Russia and Ukraine.

The proposal, which included controversial suggestions such as a demilitarised zone and a referendum in disputed territories, was quickly rejected by Ukrainian officials. The response exposed the limited influence of Indonesia’s mediation efforts in conflicts far beyond Southeast Asia.

While presenting himself internationally as a peacemaker, critics argue that Prabowo has largely paid lip service to human rights at home, particularly regarding the unresolved crisis in West Papua.


Indonesian protesters denounce US link over Iran war         Video: Al Jazeera

While Indonesia promotes its diplomatic role in international conflicts, violence and instability continue to affect civilians in West Papua.

On 11 February 2026, only weeks before Prabowo’s international mediation initiative gained attention, a small civilian aircraft operated by Smart Air came under gunfire shortly after landing at Korowai Batu airstrip in Boven Digoel, West Papua.

A spokesperson linked to the military wing of Free Papua Movement (TPNPB- OPM) later claimed responsibility for the attack, stating that the aircraft had allegedly been used to transport Indonesian security forces.

The roots of the crisis stretch back to the early 1960s, when Indonesia invaded and took control of the territory following the withdrawal of Dutch colonial administration.

Act of Free Choice controversy
The subsequent 1969 referendum, known as the Act of Free Choice, remains one of the most controversial political processes in modern Southeast Asian and South Pacific history.

Rather than a universal vote, approximately 1025 selected representatives voted under significant political and military pressure.

Many Papuans and international observers argue that the process failed to meet internationally recognized standards for self-determination. As a result, the legitimacy of the referendum continues to be contested, and its legacy remains a central grievance fueling decades of political resistance and armed conflict.

For many analysts and human rights advocates, the Papua conflict cannot simply be framed as a domestic security problem. Instead, it represents a protracted humanitarian and political crisis that has yet to find a comprehensive and inclusive resolution.

In this sense, the issue has become what some observers describe as a long-standing wound within the Indonesian state.

Such incidents highlight the tragic reality faced by ordinary Papuans, who often find themselves caught between military operations and Papuan resistance attacks.

Civilians bear the brunt of a conflict that has persisted for decades without meaningful political dialogue capable of addressing its underlying causes.

Rising internal displacement in West Papua
According to reports by human rights organisations and humanitarian groups, displacement in West Papua has increased significantly in recent years.

The number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) has risen dramatically, from roughly 55,000 at the end of 2023 to more than 103,000 by October 2025. Many displaced communities face severe shortages of food, healthcare, education, and basic security.

These figures reflect a broader systemic failure to protect civilians and provide sustainable solutions for affected communities. Despite decades of development initiatives and official rhetoric emphasising stability and prosperity in Papua, the lived reality for many residents remains defined by insecurity and displacement.

Prabowo’s own military history also continues to shape international perceptions of Indonesia’s human rights record. During the Indonesian occupation of East Timor between 1975 and 1999, Prabowo served as an officer in Indonesia’s elite special forces, Kopassus.

Human rights organisations have linked him to operations accused of abuses against civilians during that period.

Following the 1999 referendum that ultimately led to East Timor’s independence, the United Nations supported investigations into violence carried out by Indonesian-backed militias and security forces.

Although Prabowo was never tried or convicted by an international court, activists and some Timorese leaders have long argued that senior Indonesian officers should have faced deeper scrutiny.

Shaping of credibility
In international diplomacy, credibility is often shaped not only by external initiatives but also by a state’s domestic human rights record. When internal conflicts remain unresolved, claims to global moral leadership can face heightened scrutiny.

Prabowo was also involved in military operations in Papua during the 1990s. One of the most widely discussed incidents was the 1996 Mapenduma hostage crisis in the highlands of what is now Nduga Regency.

Human rights organisations have documented allegations of abuses committed by Indonesian security forces during that period.

Additional controversies have surrounded claims that aircraft bearing the emblem of the International Committee of the Red Cross were misused during operations. Such allegations, whether proven or not, continue to raise questions about adherence to international humanitarian law and contribute to lingering distrust among Papuan communities.

Taken together, these historical and contemporary dynamics create a sharp contrast between Indonesia’s global diplomatic ambitions and the unresolved realities within its own borders.

In international diplomacy, credibility is closely tied to domestic consistency.
It is difficult to advocate peace abroad while unresolved grievances and allegations of human rights violations persist at home.

For Indonesia, genuine leadership in global peacemaking would require more than diplomatic offers on the world stage. It would involve confronting the deeper structural issues underlying the conflict in West Papua.

Ensuring accountability
This would include ensuring accountability for past abuses, protecting civil liberties, and opening inclusive political dialogue that allows Papuans to meaningfully participate in shaping their own future.

Without such reforms, Indonesia’s peace diplomacy risks being perceived less as principled international engagement and more as a form of strategic public relations. The gap between Jakarta’s diplomatic rhetoric and the lived experiences of Papuan civilians remains stark.

Ultimately, Indonesia’s credibility as a global peacemaker will depend not only on its willingness to mediate conflicts abroad but also on its ability to address the long-standing humanitarian and political crisis within West Papua.

Until that gap is bridged, Indonesia’s aspirations for global diplomatic leadership will continue to face serious questions about legitimacy and moral authority.

The continued instability in West Papua also has broader regional implications for the Pacific, where several governments and civil society groups have increasingly raised concerns about the humanitarian situation faced by indigenous West Papuans.

Ali Mirin is a West Papuan from the Kimyal tribe in the highlands bordering the Star Mountains region of Papua New Guinea. He holds a Master of Arts in international relations from Flinders University in Adelaide, South Australia.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for March 10, 2026

ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on March 10, 2026.

Here’s why you might want to clean your headphones
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rina Wong (Fu), Research Fellow, Health Sciences, Curtin University Whether it’s enjoying a podcast, listening to music or chatting on the phone, many of us spend hours a day using our headphones. One 2017 study of 4,185 Australians showed they used headphones on average 47–88 hours a

As tonnes of illegal tobacco sneak in past our borders, we risk missing a threat that could cost us billions
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Simon McKirdy, Professor of Biosecurity and Deputy Vice Chancellor of Global Engagement, Murdoch University Australia regularly makes global headlines for its strict biosecurity rules for international travellers. Failing to declare food, animal products and plant material – from an apple, to forgotten McMuffins or plant cuttings –

It’s tempting to offload your thinking to AI. Cognitive science shows why that’s a bad idea
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Misia Temler, Research Affiliate, Psychology, University of Sydney With so many artificial intelligence (AI) products on offer now, it’s increasingly tempting to offload difficult thinking tasks to chatbots, agents and other tools. As we chart this new technological terrain, more and more we’re exposed to vast amounts

Australia has granted some Iranian soccer players asylum – but 2 questions remain
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Catherine Ordway, Visiting Scholar, UNSW Sydney Last week, the Iranian soccer team refused to sing the national anthem before their Asian Women’s Cup opener on the Gold Coast. It was a silent protest in solidarity with thousands killed in deadly crackdowns in Iran. But some of these

Second COVID inquiry: why being politically prepared for the next pandemic is crucial
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Grant Duncan, Research Associate, Public Policy Institute, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau COVID-19 changed the course of New Zealand’s political history. Labour’s 50% of the vote in 2020 came from a huge electoral swing as a reward for the main coalition party’s effective evidence-based policies, and

5 members of Iranian women’s soccer team defect, Australia deploys RAAF plane and missiles to Gulf
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The Albanese government has given humanitarian visas to five members of the Iranian women’s soccer team, including its captain, to enable them to remain in Australia, and is offering protection to any more of the women who want to defect.

’10 classrooms full of children’ – US-Israeli war kills hundreds of Iranian, Lebanese kids
Zahra Sultana has mocked US and Israeli pretensions, saying in a BBC interview on Sunday — International Women’s Day — that the girls in the Minab school were slaughtered “apparently to liberate women”. SPECIAL REPORT: By Brett Wilkins of Common Dreams US and Israeli airstrikes have killed nearly 300 Iranian and Lebanese children over the

COVID inquiry phase two: 4 main lessons to improve NZ’s future pandemic resilience
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Murdoch, Distinguished Professor, University of Otago A second Royal Commission of Inquiry into New Zealand’s experience and handling of the COVID pandemic released its substantial report today, running to several volumes and hundreds of pages. The coalition government commissioned the inquiry to specifically examine key decisions

I’ve studied MAGA rhetoric for a decade, and this is what I see in Hegseth’s boasts, action-movie one-liners and gloating over dominance
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Casey Ryan Kelly, Professor of Communication Studies, University of Nebraska-Lincoln When Secretary of Defense James Mattis addressed the intensification of U.S. combat operations against the Islamic State group in 2017, he assured the American public of his commitment to “get the strategy right” while maintaining “the rules

AUKUS is binding Australia to a dangerous, unpredictable leader. We need a Plan B now
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hugh White, Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University In a dangerous and uncertain world, what should US allies do? Draw closer to America, or pull away? When the United States under President Donald Trump is itself among the

5 top tips for the perfect compost – according to science
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gregory Moore, Senior Research Associate, School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, The University of Melbourne As a young boy, I had to contend with my grandfather’s compost heap. It was a veritable Vesuvius of foul-smelling, putrescible plant waste, a metre high and hidden behind a privet

As global trade rules falter, how can Australia protect itself from economic coercion?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Draper, Professor, and Executive Director: Institute for International Trade, and Director of the Jean Monnet Centre of Trade and Environment, Adelaide University The United States was once a champion of fair trade rules. Now, it has transformed into a rampaging Viking seeking extortionate tributes. This shift

The Oscars aren’t a meritocracy – there’s a complex formula for winning
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By William Simon, Casual Lecturer (Education and English Departments), University of Tasmania Every January, Hollywood is overtaken by a massive Oscar prediction game, with studios, critics and commentators all playing a role in shaping the debate. But choosing a winner is more complicated than acknowledging a film’s artistic

How ‘looksmaxxing’ self-improvement apps are marketing misogyny to young men
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marten Risius, Adjunct Senior Fellow, School of Psychology, The University of Queensland A theory about male “sexual market value” that began in online manosphere forums is now appearing in the TikTok feeds of Australian teenagers — repackaged as AI-powered “looksmaxxing” apps. The idea is closely tied to

Your child has pathological demand avoidance? Here’s what it means – and 9 tips for what to do
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicole Rinehart, Nicole Rinehart, Professor, Clinical Psychology, Director of the Neurodevelopment Program, School of Psychological Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, Monash University For some children, everyday demands such “brush your teeth” or “time to get off of your computer game”, can trigger intense anxiety

US military opens environmental review for expanded Marianas training footprint
By Mark Rabago, RNZ Pacific Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas correspondent The United States military has begun the formal environmental review process for the continuation of large-scale training and testing activities in waters around the Northern Mariana Islands and on Farallon de Medinilla. The Department of the Navy, including the US Navy and Marine Corps,

ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for March 9, 2026
ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on March 9, 2026.

Here’s why you might want to clean your headphones

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rina Wong (Fu), Research Fellow, Health Sciences, Curtin University

Whether it’s enjoying a podcast, listening to music or chatting on the phone, many of us spend hours a day using our headphones. One 2017 study of 4,185 Australians showed they used headphones on average 47–88 hours a month.

Health advice about headphones tends to focus on how loud sounds might affect our hearing. For example, to avoid hearing loss, the World Health Organization advises people to keep the volume at below 60% their device’s maximum and to use devices that monitor sound exposure and limit volume.

But apart from sound, what else is going in our ears? Using headphones – particularly in-ear versions such as earbuds – blocks the ear canal and puts the skin in contact with any dirt or bacteria they may be carrying.

Here’s what you need to know about keeping your ears clean and safe.

First, let’s take a look at your ear

Over-ear headphones cover the entire external ear – the elastic cartilage covered by skin that’s shaped to trap soundwaves. In-ear headphones (as well as hearing aids) are shaped to fit and cover the entrance to the external ear canal, which is called the concha.

Sound vibrations travel through the ear canal – which is S-shaped and a few centimetres long – to reach your ear drum.

Deeper parts of the ear canal produce earwax and oils. These help keep your skin healthy, hydrated and less vulnerable to infection.

Tiny hairs in the ear canal also help regulate temperature and keep foreign debris out. These hairs and earwax help trap and move small particles, shed skin and bacteria out of the ear canal.

Earwax is the ear’s self-cleaning method and we only tend to notice it when there’s too much.

Excessive buildup can block your hearing or even clog the mesh of your earpods. But don’t try to dig earwax out of your ears yourself. If you’re concerned, speak to a pharmacist or GP for advice.

Diagram showing earwax in the ear canal.
We generally only notice earwax when there’s too much. Alexander_P/Shutterstock

How headphones can affect the ear’s bacteria

Healthy ear canals host a range of non-harmful microbes – mainly bacteria, but fungi and viruses too. They compete for space and nutrients, and this diversity makes it trickier for any potential pathogens (disease-causing microorganisms) to take hold.

But wearing headphones (and other in-ear devices such as hearing aids or ear plugs) may upset the balance between “good” and “bad” bacteria.

One 2024 study compared bacteria in the external ear canals of 50 people who used hearing aids and 80 who didn’t. The researchers found hearing-aid users – whose external ear canals are blocked for extended periods – had fewer types of bacteria than those who didn’t.

Another 2025 study looked at how using headphones (including over-ear, in-ear and on-ear) affected fungi and bacteria in the ear canal. It found using headphones was linked to a greater risk of ear infections, especially if people shared them.

This may because wearing headphones – especially in-ear devices – makes the external ear canal hotter and more humid. Trapped moisture is especially likely if you exercise and sweat while wearing headphones.

Higher humidity increases your risk of ear infection and discharge, including pus.

Wearing in-ear devices such as hearing aids or headphones for extended periods can also interfere with the ear’s natural “self-cleaning” function, aided by earwax.

So, what should I do?

Most of us need – or like – to wear headphones in our day-to-day routines. But for good ear health, it’s important to give your ears a break.

Allow your ear canals to “breathe” at different points throughout the day so they’re not constantly blocked and growing humid and hot.

You could also try bone conduction headphones. These don’t block the ear canal, because they transmit sound through your skull directly into the inner ear, without needing to block the ear canal. These can be expensive though. And while they allow our ears to breathe, high-intensity vibrations (high volume) can still damage hearing, so as with all headphones caution is required.

Other tips

Clean your devices regularly

Recommendations range from once a week to daily to after a physical workout.

For example, you can wipe them with a cloth or use a soft-bristled children’s toothbrush dampened with mildly soapy water. Blot dry with a paper towel and allow a few hours of drying before recharging or reuse.

But it’s best to follow your manufacturer’s guidelines. And don’t forget to clean the case and the body of your earbuds too.

Don’t use headphones when sick

If you have an ear infection, avoid using earphones as they may increase the temperature and humidity in your ear and slow recovery.

Watch for symptoms

If your ears become itchy, red or have discharge, stop using in-ear devices and seek medical advice.

ref. Here’s why you might want to clean your headphones – https://theconversation.com/heres-why-you-might-want-to-clean-your-headphones-255590