Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa M. Given, Professor of Information Sciences & Director, Social Change Enabling Impact Platform, RMIT University

Debate continues to rage in Australia over whether children should (or can) be banned from social media. Following politicians’ recent promises to ban those under 16 from the platforms, eSafety Commissioner Julie Inman Grant has raised concerns that imposing age restrictions could push children to use social media in secret and limit their access to critical social supports.

A recent analysis in the United Kingdom found a social media ban “would solve nothing”, citing evidence from an 18-year study across 168 countries that showed “no causal relationship” between internet access and young people’s wellbeing.

The Australian federal government is committed to trial age assurance technology to restrict children’s access. For now, it’s unclear what tech solutions currently exist that could effectively restrict access by age.

Other countries have tried, and mostly failed, to ban children from accessing online content for decades. Australia would be wise to heed the lessons learned from these experiences.

What has the United States tried?

The Children’s Online Privacy Protection Rule (COPPA) was introduced in the United States in 1998. It continues to influence how children – globally – access information online.

COPPA imposes several requirements on “operators of websites or online services” who gather personal information from children under 13. This includes the need to obtain parental consent.

To comply with this law, many companies (including social media platforms) imposed bans on children under 13 from accessing online services.

However, these bans have been heavily criticised for contributing to age fraud online. They also limit children’s rights to access information and rights to self-expression, as protected under the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child.

Another wide-reaching attempt to restrict children’s access to “obscene or harmful content over the internet” was introduced in the United States in 2000.

The Children’s Internet Protection Act (CIPA) required schools and libraries to control the content children could access online. This was typically achieved using internet filters which blocked searching for particular words.

However, these blunt instruments often blocked useful information. A blocked search for the word “breast” to limit access to pornographic content could also block information on breast cancer, for example.

Over many years, research has shown internet filtering is ineffective at shielding children from bad experiences online.

Unsuccessful age bans

Many other countries have imposed bans on children’s access to online content, with varying degrees of success.

South Korea imposed a “shutdown law” in 2011. It was designed to address online gaming addiction by limiting those under 16 from accessing gaming sites after midnight.

However, many children used accounts in their parents’ names to continue accessing gaming sites. The law also faced legal challenges, with parents concerned about restrictions on their rights to parent and educate their children. The law was abolished in 2021.

In 2015, the European Union introduced legislation that would ban children under 16 from accessing online services (including social media) without parental consent.

The proposed legislation was controversial. There was a significant outcry from technology companies and human rights organisations. They claimed the rules would violate children’s rights to expression and access to information.

The law was amended to allow individual countries to opt out of the new age ban, with the United Kingdom opting to keep limits only for those under age 13. This patchwork approach meant individual countries could set their own limits.

In 2023, for example, France enacted a law requiring social media platforms to restrict access for teens under 15 unless authorised by a parent or guardian.

Today, Europe leads the world in imposing significant online protections for children, with huge implications for tech companies.

In 2023 a new Digital Services Act was introduced, which forbids platforms like Instagram, Facebook, TikTok and Snapchat from targeting children with personalised advertisements.

Rather than banning children from online services, this legislation focuses on controlling how very large platforms engage with children. It’s meant to ensure protections are in place to manage harmful content and algorithmic influences on platform use.

What can Australia learn from these global attempts?

A critical message over the last two decades is that bans are not effective. While technological interventions (like filtering and age assurance technologies) continue to improve, there are many workarounds (such as using others’ accounts) that make it impossible to ban children outright.

One effective approach has focused on protecting children’s personal data. This has led to long-standing requirements for companies to comply with restrictions. India and Brazil have recently introduced similar data-focused protections for children.

However, for older children, significant restrictions can conflict with UN protections for children’s rights. Australia must carefully balance potential conflicts when attempting to limit or ban children’s online access.

Even if Australia did impose a ban for children under 16, it would be unlikely to reshape global approaches to such bans.

The US and EU are large markets, with significant influence on the actions of technology companies. As with COPPA’s influence on limiting social media access for children under 13 globally, it’s likely that American and European policy innovations will continue to play a primary role in shaping global approaches.

Australia should lead by aligning its approach to these international endeavours to bolster appropriate protections for young children. At the same time, we should help parents educate older children about appropriate social media use.

This strikes an appropriate balance between protecting children’s rights to access information and express themselves, while ensuring guardrails are in place to do so safely.

Lisa M. Given receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is a Fellow of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia and of the Association for Information Science and Technology.

– ref. Other countries have struggled to control how kids access the internet. What can Australia learn? – https://theconversation.com/other-countries-have-struggled-to-control-how-kids-access-the-internet-what-can-australia-learn-233239

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Janet Davies, Respiratory Allergy Stream Co-chair, National Allergy Centre of Excellence; Professor and Head, Allergy Research Group, Queensland University of Technology

Allergies happen when your immune system overreacts to a normally harmless substance like dust or pollen. Hay fever, hives and anaphylaxis are all types of allergic reactions.

Many of those affected reach quickly for antihistamines to treat mild to moderate allergies (though adrenaline, not antihistamines, should always be used to treat anaphylaxis).

If you’re using oral antihistamines very often, you might have wondered if it’s OK to keep relying on antihistamines to control symptoms of allergies. The good news is there’s no research evidence to suggest regular, long-term use of modern antihistamines is a problem.

But while they’re good at targeting the early symptoms of a mild to moderate allergic reaction (sneezing, for example), oral antihistamines aren’t as effective as steroid nose sprays for managing hay fever. This is because nasal steroid sprays target the underlying inflammation of hay fever, not just the symptoms.

Here are the top six antihistamines myths – busted.

Myth 1. Oral antihistamines are the best way to control hay fever symptoms

Wrong. In fact, the recommended first line medical treatment for most patients with moderate to severe hay fever is intranasal steroids. This might include steroid nose sprays (ask your doctor or pharmacist if you’d like to know more).

Studies have shown intranasal steroids relieve hay fever symptoms better than antihistamine tablets or syrups.

To be effective, nasal steroids need to be used regularly, and importantly, with the correct technique.

In Australia, you can buy intranasal steroids without a doctor’s script at your pharmacy. They work well to relieve a blocked nose and itchy, watery eyes, as well as improve chronic nasal blockage (however, antihistamine tablets or syrups do not improve chronic nasal blockage).

Some newer nose sprays contain both steroids and antihistamines. These can provide more rapid and comprehensive relief from hay fever symptoms than just oral antihistamines or intranasal steroids alone. But patients need to keep using them regularly for between two and four weeks to yield the maximum effect.

For people with seasonal allergic rhinitis (hayfever), it may be best to start using intranasal steroids a few weeks before the pollen season in your regions hits. Taking an antihistamine tablet as well can help.

Antihistamine eye drops work better than oral antihistamines to relieve acutely itchy eyes (allergic conjunctivitis).

Myth 2. My body will ‘get used to’ antihistamines

Some believe this myth so strongly they may switch antihistamines. But there’s no scientific reason to swap antihistamines if the one you’re using is working for you. Studies show antihistamines continue to work even after six months of sustained use.

Myth 3. Long-term antihistamine use is dangerous

There are two main types of antihistamines – first-generation and second-generation.

First-generation antihistamines, such as chlorphenamine or promethazine, are short-acting. Side effects include drowsiness, dry mouth and blurred vision. You shouldn’t drive or operate machinery if you are taking them, or mix them with alcohol or other medications.

Most doctors no longer recommend first-generation antihistamines. The risks outweigh the benefits.

The newer second-generation antihistamines, such as cetirizine, fexofenadine, or loratadine, have been extensively studied in clinical trials. They are generally non-sedating and have very few side effects. Interactions with other medications appear to be uncommon and they don’t interact badly with alcohol. They are longer acting, so can be taken once a day.

Although rare, some side effects (such as photosensitivity or stomach upset) can happen. At higher doses, cetirizine can make some people feel drowsy. However, research conducted over a period of six months showed taking second-generation antihistamines is safe and effective. Talk to your doctor or pharmacist if you’re concerned.

Myth 4. Antihistamines aren’t safe for children or pregnant people

As long as it’s the second-generation antihistamine, it’s fine. You can buy child versions of second-generation antihistamines as syrups for kids under 12.

Though still used, some studies have shown certain first-generation antihistamines can impair childrens’ ability to learn and retain information.

Studies on second-generation antihistamines for children have found them to be safer and better than the first-generation drugs. They may even improve academic performance (perhaps by allowing kids who would otherwise be distracted by their allergy symptoms to focus). There’s no good evidence they stop working in children, even after long-term use.

For all these reasons, doctors say it’s better for children to use second-generation than first-generation antihistimines.

What about using antihistimines while you’re pregnant? One meta analysis of combined study data including over 200,000 women found no increase in fetal abnormalities.

Many doctors recommend the second-generation antihistamines loratadine or cetirizine for pregnant people. They have not been associated with any adverse pregnancy outcomes. Both can be used during breastfeeding, too.

Myth 5. It is unsafe to use higher than the recommended dose of antihistamines

Higher than standard doses of antihistamines can be safely used over extended periods of time for adults, if required.

But speak to your doctor first. These higher doses are generally recommended for a skin condition called chronic urticaria (a kind of chronic hives).

Myth 6. You can use antihistamines instead of adrenaline for anaphylaxis

No. Adrenaline (delivered via an epipen, for example) is always the first choice. Antihistamines don’t work fast enough, nor address all the problems caused by anaphylaxis.

Antihistamines may be used later on to calm any hives and itching, once the very serious and acute phase of anaphylaxis has been resolved.

In general, oral antihistamines are not the best treatment to control hay fever – you’re better off with steroid nose sprays. That said, second-generation oral antihistamines can be used to treat mild to moderate allergy symptoms safely on a regular basis over the long term.

Janet Davies receives funding from the ARC, NHMRC, Department of Health and Aging, and MRFF. She has conducted research on diagnostics in collaboration with Abionic SA, Switzerland, supported by the National Foundation for Medical Research Innovation with co-contribution from Abionic. Her allergy research has been supported by in kind services or materials from Sullivan Nicolaides Pathology (Queensland), Abacus Dx (Australia), Stallergenes (France), Stallergenes Greer (Australia), Swisens (Switzerland), Kenelec (Australia), and ThermoFisher (Sweden), as well as cash or in kind contributions from Partner Organisations for the NHMRC AusPollen Partnership Project GNT1116107, Australasian Society Clinical Immunology Allergy, Asthma Australia; Stallergenes Australia; Bureau Meteorology, Commonwealth Scientific Industrial Research Organisation, Federal Office of Climate and Meteorology Switzerland. QUT owns patents relevant to grass pollen allergy diagnosis (US PTO 14/311944 issued, AU2008/316301 issued) for which Janet Davies is an inventor. She is the Executive Lead, Repository and Discovery Pillar, and Co-Chair Respiratory Allergy Stream for the National Allergy Centre of Excellence.

Connie Katelaris has received funding from the NHMRC for aerobiological research. Unrelated to this article, she has been a consultant on advisory boards or has received honoraria for presentations from Takeda, CSL Behring, GSK, Sanofi, Phavaris, Biocryst, KalVista, Astra Zeneca, Stallergenes, Novartis. She has had an unrestricted research grant from CSL Behring. None of the presentations for these companies was on any topic related to this article and did not involve discussions on intranasal steroid sprays or antihistamines.

Unrelated to this article, Joy Lee has received funding from the Centre of Research Excellence in Treatable traits in Asthma, Sanofi, Fondazione Menarini and GSK. This funding support was solely used for presenting at educational meetings in asthma and travel grants to attend international meetings and conferences in Asthma. She has been on advisory boards for Tezepelumab (Astra Zeneca). She is affiliated with the National Allergy Centre of Excellence as the co-chair of the Respiratory Allergy Leadership Group. A/Prof Lee declares she has not received any funding directly from any of the above pharmaceutical companies directly related to the selling, education or patient use of antihistamines or intranasal steroids. In this article we discuss antihistamines and intranasal steroids generically as classes of medications and do not specifically advocate for one particular brand over another.

– ref. Can I take antihistamines everyday? More than the recommended dose? What if I’m pregnant? Here’s what the research says – https://theconversation.com/can-i-take-antihistamines-everyday-more-than-the-recommended-dose-what-if-im-pregnant-heres-what-the-research-says-228390

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The United Kingdom general election will be held in a week, on July 4. Polls close at 7am AEST on July 5. The 650 members of the House of Commons are elected by first-past-the-post, in which the candidate with the most votes wins the seat.

In the UK, votes are not counted at individual polling places, but are instead transported to a central place for counting within that seat. This delays the results, so the vast majority of seats will be declared from late morning to mid-afternoon AEST on July 5.

The Guardian’s national poll tracker has Labour leading the Conservatives by just over 20 points. Vote shares are 41.3% Labour, 21.0% Conservatives, 15.5% for the far-right Reform, 11.1% Liberal Democrats and 5.8% Greens. Recent individual polls have Labour leading the Conservatives by 16 to 24 points.

In the last few weeks, there has been a surge for Reform and to a lesser extent the Lib Dems, at the expense of both Labour and the Conservatives. Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has been unchanged.

If these polls are replicated at the election, Labour will win a landslide, owing to the first-past-the-post system. The Guardian’s seat forecast is for Labour to win 424 of the 650 seats, the Conservatives 135, the Lib Dems 47 and the Scottish National Party (SNP) 19.

At the December 2019 election, Boris Johnson led the Conservatives to a thumping victory, as they won 365 of the 650 seats to 202 for Labour, on popular vote shares of 43.6% Conservative to 32.1% Labour. The Conservatives have governed in the UK since winning the 2010 election.

Under Johnson, the Conservatives led in the polls until late 2021, when there were many scandals about Johnson’s parties during COVID.

But it was not until Johnson was ousted as Conservative leader and PM, and replaced first by Liz Truss in September 2022 then Rishi Sunak in October 2022 that the Conservatives fell into a completely uncompetitive position that has them facing a landslide defeat next week. The Conservatives are likely to regret ousting Johnson.

In Scottish polls, Labour is ahead of the Scottish National Party by single-digit margins. In 2019, Labour won just one of 59 Scottish seats and the SNP took 48, after Labour finished third in vote shares behind the Conservatives and SNP. So, Labour will gain many seats from the SNP if these Scottish polls are correct.

In two seat polls of Clacton, Reform leader Nigel Farage has a double-digit lead over the Conservatives, so he should win Clacton.

US: Biden gains on Trump ahead of debate

The United States general election will be held on November 5. There will be a debate hosted by CNN on Thursday US time between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, which will occur at 11am AEST Friday. Trump is now 78 and Biden will be almost 82 by the election.

The FiveThirtyEight aggregate of national polls has Trump barely ahead of Biden by 41.0–40.9%, with 9.3% for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Trump led by one point two weeks ago.

However, the latest high-profile polls from Siena College for The New York Times and Quinnipiac University have Trump leading by three to four percentage points head-to-head, and more when third-party candidates are included.

Presidents are not elected by the national vote, but by using a state-based system where each state has electoral college votes equal to its federal House seats (population-based) and senators (always two). With two minor exceptions, states award all their electoral votes to the state’s winner. There are 538 total electoral votes, so it takes 270 to win.

FiveThirtyEight suggests Trump has clear leads in three states Biden won in 2020: Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. In three other Biden-won states (Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania), it’s close to tied. If Biden wins these three states, and doesn’t lose any electoral votes other than where Trump has leads now, he wins the election by a 270–268 margin.

In economic data, May was a good month for US workers as real (inflation-adjusted) earnings rose 0.5% in hourly terms and 0.4% in weekly terms, after drops in April. In the 12 months to May, real hourly earnings rose 0.8% and real weekly earnings rose 0.5%.

There was no change to headline inflation in May, and this was the lowest monthly inflation since at least May 2023. Core inflation was up 0.2% in May, its lowest monthly rate since at least November 2023.

The US uses two surveys for its monthly employment situation that sometimes give contradictory numbers. In May, the establishment survey suggested 272,000 jobs had been created, but the household survey
suggested 408,000 jobs were lost. Financial markets and economists believe the establishment survey is more accurate.

Far-right likely to win most seats at snap French parliamentary election

After dire results for his Renaissance party at the European parliament election on June 9, French President Emmanuel Macron announced a snap election for the French lower house, two years into a five-year term.

The 577 seats are elected by a single-member system in two rounds, on Sunday and July 7. The top two candidates in a seat, plus any others who receive at least 12.5% of registered voters (a high barrier as it factors in turnout), advance to the July 7 runoffs, where first-past-the-post is used. A candidate can withdraw before the runoffs. The overwhelming majority of runoffs will be two-candidate contests.

Polls have the far-right National Rally (RN) in the mid-30s, an alliance of four left-wing parties (NFP) that will run one candidate per seat in the high-20s, Ensemble (a coalition that includes Renaissance and other parties) at about 20% and the conservative Republicans at about 7%.

If the first-round results this Sunday reflect the polls, Ensemble will finish third in the large majority of seats, with the final two RN vs NFP. Poll forecasts of the runoffs suggest RN will win the most seats, but be short of a majority (289 seats are needed for this).

Ensemble had 249 seats going into this election, the NFP 149, RN 89 and Republicans 54. Seat forecasts have Ensemble winning about 100 seats, so this election is likely to be a disaster for Macron.

I covered these elections for The Poll Bludger on June 17 and June 24. My June 17 article also covered the left landslide at June 2 Mexican presidential and legislative elections, and the formation of a South African government after the May 29 election. My June 24 article covered the final European parliament results from the June 6–9 election.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Latest polling shows UK Labour likely to win landslide at next week’s election, while Biden gains on Trump across the pond – https://theconversation.com/latest-polling-shows-uk-labour-likely-to-win-landslide-at-next-weeks-election-while-biden-gains-on-trump-across-the-pond-232834

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katherine Riley, Lecturer, School of Nursing, University of Wollongong

Winter school holidays are either here or coming up, depending on where in Australia you live. Maybe you’re
planning a rural escape.

Rural tourism is crucial for job growth and sustainability of small rural towns. However, for rural emergency departments, school holidays are often the busiest times.

No-one plans a trip to the emergency department on holidays. But if you need health care, there are often other ways of accessing it than turning up at a rural hospital.

Here’s why it’s so important to leave rural emergency departments for life-threatening illness or injuries, and some other options for seeking care.

We’re short of doctors and nurses

The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare reports a significant shortfall of nurses and specialist doctors in rural towns compared with staffing levels in big cities.

This means many small rural emergency departments only have nurses on staff, with doctors on call or consulted remotely from a larger hospital.

In a study published earlier this year, my colleagues and I discovered this dynamic was especially challenging for rural emergency nurses when critically ill patients presented.

One nurse told us:

We need more staff. I mean, I look at these emergency TV shows, and you see them in Kings Cross at the big hospitals there or overseas, they get a phone call […] there’s a resus coming in. Everyone’s standing around the bed with all their signs on, the airway/circulation/team leader […] and here, we have two people. It’s just so different. It’s just a false sense of reality. It’s ridiculous.

So emergency departments should be used for emergencies only. These include:

• sudden collapse
• chest pain or pressure lasting more than ten minutes
• breathing difficulty
• serious mental health condition
• uncontrollable bleeding.

When emergency departments are used responsibly, this can reduce the pressure on staff. It ensures the most seriously ill receive the care they need promptly.

What are my alternatives?

Here are four ways you and your family can be better prepared for your rural holiday and avoid an unnecessary visit to the emergency department.

1. Pack your scripts and medical history summary

Bring essential scripts and medications with you. This reduces the need to visit the local emergency department and ensures you have what you need during your stay.

Do you have a chronic condition or have had a recent illness or surgery? Make sure you speak to your GP before you go. They can provide a medical health summary that includes your recent treatments and medications. Alternatively, if you have access to My Health Record, ask your GP to prepare a shared health summary and upload it to your record. If you need medical care, this summary will assist in a timely assessment.

2. Call Healthdirect, NURSE-ON-CALL or 13HEALTH depending on where you are

Healthdirect is a 24-hour telephone health advice line (known as NURSE-ON-CALL in Victoria or 13HEALTH in Queensland). By calling the relevant number, you will be connected to a registered nurse who will ask a series of questions and provide evidence-based advice and guidance. The Healthdirect website also offers an interactive symptom checker to advise whether you should see a GP, go to an emergency department, or manage your symptoms at home (or in this case, on holidays):

• Healthdirect – 1800 022 222

• NURSE-ON-CALL (Vic) – 1300 60 60 24

• 13HEALTH (Qld) – 13 43 25 84.

3. Need a GP? How about GP telehealth services?

For minor health concerns or non-urgent issues, GP telehealth services are a remote-access option that can be used when away from home. Before you go away, check with your GP to see if they offer a telehealth service.

4. Go to an Urgent Care Clinic

The Australian government has funded the opening of Urgent Care Clinics across the country. These clinics provide medical assessment and care for urgent illnesses or injuries. They have been created as a solution to divert people away from busy emergency departments. But these Urgent Care Clinics are not suitable for people experiencing emergency or life-threatening conditions.

Urgent Care Clinics are ideal for illnesses and injuries that would require urgent treatment such as gastroenteritis, minor infections, lacerations and back pain. Check here to find your closest clinic.

Please keep the emergency department for life-threatening illnesses or injuries, and if needed, call 000 for an ambulance immediately.

Katherine Riley is affiliated with CRANAplus, the peak professional body for Australia’s remote and isolated health workforce.

Rebekkah Middleton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Planning a country escape these school holidays? 4 ways to avoid clogging up the emergency department – https://theconversation.com/planning-a-country-escape-these-school-holidays-4-ways-to-avoid-clogging-up-the-emergency-department-232262

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Janet Hoek, Professor of Public Health, University of Otago

Australia will become the first country to restrict vape sales to pharmacies from next week. This new policy represents a very different approach to the path Aotearoa New Zealand is taking, and includes some important steps.

First, it recognises that to benefit population health, vaping products should not be treated as everyday consumer items.

Second, it introduces a distribution system that moves away from the commercial, profit-driven approach currently operating in New Zealand. Pharmacists are highly trained health professionals. Unlike general retailers who are not trained to understand addiction, pharmacists can advise people transitioning from smoking to vaping and support vaping cessation.

Third, pharmacists’ comprehensive code of ethics provides a further incentive to avoid supplying vaping products to underage people.

Should New Zealand follow Australia?

Our research with young people found they quickly identified “dodgy dairies” with lax age verification procedures. Unlike these outlets, pharmacists would face professional sanctions if caught supplying underage youth.

So, should New Zealand adopt Australia’s approach?

Limiting the supply of vaping products is a key measure in reducing uptake among young people. However, we are troubled that Australia will be regulating vaping products more stringently than smoked tobacco, which causes more serious physical harms.

New Zealand’s government has signalled stricter regulation of vaping products, yet it recently repealed a law regulating smoked tobacco products stringently.

We strongly support protecting young people from taking up vaping. However, policies should be both comprehensive and proportionate, and must greatly reduce the appeal, addictiveness and availability of smoked tobacco as well as vaping products.

History of inadequate nicotine product regulation

Although vaping offers people who smoke a less harmful alternative to tobacco, it is not harmless. Many people who have never smoked regularly now vape. Overall, nicotine use among young people has risen.

Rates of daily vaping among people aged 15–17 have increased from under 1% in 2017–18 to more than 15% in 2022–23. This increase is causing considerable concern among parents, teachers, health researchers, community workers, policy makers and young people themselves.

New Zealand regulators initially responded by limiting the vape flavours general retailers could sell to tobacco, menthol and mint. However, the nicotine marketplace has evolved more rapidly than the policies regulating it.

The advent of “pod” vapes in 2019 and disposables in 2020 brought in very cheap, attractively packaged products with high nicotine concentrations. Specialist vape retailer numbers exploded. Not surprisingly, uptake in youth vaping quickly accelerated.

Vaping manufacturers rapidly circumvented recent efforts to limit availability of disposable vapes. Low-cost disposable vapes remain widely available, despite new requirements for removable batteries.

Measures restricting specialist vape stores from operating within 300 metres of schools failed to have a marked impact, likely because they neither applied retrospectively nor included general retailers in their ambit.

Additional measures to protect children from product marketing have limited the concentration of nicotine vapes may contain, restricted flavour descriptors and disallowed use of cartoons on packaging.

It is too early to assess what effect these changes have had. However, a recent mystery shopper test found variable compliance with these policies.

Despite Prime Minister Christopher Luxon declaring before the 2023 election that he was “up for” looking at a complete vaping ban, the coalition government has not extended all measures introduced by the previous Labour government. Exceptions include increasing penalties that may be imposed on retailers and committing to more intensive monitoring.

A call for proportionate policies

Before the government’s unpopular repeal of New Zealand’s smokefree generation law, New Zealand had adopted a proportionate approach to nicotine products.

Innovative regulation such as retailer reduction and denicotinisation was expected to lead to plummeting use of smoked tobacco, the most harmful product. At that point, moving vaping products from a commercial supply model to a health-promoting model would have been logical.

Hansard records associate health minister Casey Costello as stating that repealing the policy to limit the number of retailers was not an “end position”. She explained:

We’re removing this legislation because we’re repealing the legislation that’s in there. As I said, it’s not an end position.

While the minister’s meaning is not completely clear, her comment indicates she may consider legislation proportionate to product risk in the future.

In the interim, we recommend disallowing vaping product displays in all general retail outlets and ensuring specialist vape stores displays are not visible to the general public.

Establishing robust limits on proximity and density could drain vape store swamps and ensure vapes are not easily available near schools. Disallowing discounting and giveaways of all nicotine products and introducing plain packaging would also reduce these products’ availability and appeal to children, and bring vaping product regulation in line with tobacco policy.

Given the minister’s stated willingness to consider reducing the availability of smoked tobacco, we strongly recommend she reintroduce the evidence-based, proportionate measures she had no mandate to repeal.

Janet Hoek receives funding from the Heatlh Research Council and NZ Cancer Society; she has previously received funding from the Royal Society Marsden Fund. She is a member of several advisory committees, including the Health Coalition Aotearoa, and international government and NGO groups.

Jude Ball receives funding from the Health Research Council and has previously received funding from the Marsden Fund (Royal Society of New Zealand), the Health Promotion Agency and the Cancer Society. She is affiliated with ASPIRE Aotearoa and the Adolescent Health Research Group, and is an active member of the Public Health Association of New Zealand.

– ref. Australians will soon only be able to buy vapes from pharmacies. Should New Zealand follow suit? – https://theconversation.com/australians-will-soon-only-be-able-to-buy-vapes-from-pharmacies-should-new-zealand-follow-suit-233204

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Camille Mellin, Senior Lecturer and ARC Future Fellow, School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide

Coral bleaching is becoming much more common as a result of increasingly severe and frequent marine heatwaves. Four global mass bleaching events have happened since 1998. Two of these were in the past decade.

Unless greenhouse gas emissions are cut to slow global warming, our new research shows that, by 2080, coral bleaching will start in spring, rather than late summer. Some events will last into autumn. The Great Barrier Reef’s maximum annual heat stress will double by 2050 if emissions do not slow.

Marine heatwaves stress corals, which then expel the symbiotic algae living in their tissue. These corals are left white and weakened. While not all bleached corals die immediately, prolonged heat stress harms their health and reproduction.

Our research used daily data on sea surface temperatures (instead of monthly data that models typically use) and supercomputing to produce high-resolution projections of marine heatwaves. We showed the risk of coral bleaching will be greatest along the equator. That’s also where the most biodiverse coral reefs are found.

Coral reefs cover only 1% of our oceans, but host at least 25% of all marine species. More than half a billion people worldwide depend on coral reefs for food.

So coral reefs are vital for the health of the ocean and people. They are also among the ecosystems most at risk from climate change.

Longer bleaching season will hit spawning

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration monitors marine heatwaves globally. Seasonal coral bleaching alerts are based on this data. Predicting coral bleaching risk over entire decades has proved much more challenging.

Recent improvements in climate modelling now allow marine heatwaves and coral bleaching risks to be predicted with high accuracy. Using daily projections of heat stress from many global climate models, we show the severity and duration of coral bleaching will soon reach uncharted territory.

By mid-century coral bleaching is expected to start in spring for most of Earth’s reefs, rather than late summer as is typical today. In equatorial regions, corals will be at high risk of bleaching all year round by the end of the century.

In many regions, corals spawn only once a year. These spectacular mass spawning events happen in a single week following a full moon in spring.

By 2040, this spawning event could coincide with severe bleaching risk. This would greatly reduce their reproductive success, causing large-scale coral loss.

Equatorial regions most at risk

We show the future risk of severe coral bleaching is uneven globally.

The greatest risk is along the equator. Equatorial regions are home to the most biodiverse coral reefs, including conservation hotspots such as the Coral Triangle. To make matters worse, marine life in these regions is particularly vulnerable to accelerated climate change.

Many equatorial species are already living at temperatures near their upper tolerance. They also generally have low abilities to move to track shifting climates. This leaves them at high risk of extinction.

Our research shows equatorial regions are set to benefit least from efforts to curb emissions. We expect significant emission cuts will reduce the annual duration of severe bleaching conditions in all areas except these regions.

The projected highest climate impacts coincide with highest social reliance on coral reefs. This will challenge human populations that rely heavily on their local reefs for their livelihoods and nutrition.

Improving coral reef management

Our research identifies Earth’s reef regions that are at lowest risk of increased bleaching. This will help conservation managers and policymakers prioritise efforts to limit loss of coral reef biodiversity.

We predict much less risk of coral bleaching in regions such as the northern coasts of Venezuela and Colombia, Socotra Island (opposite the Gulf of Aden) and Alor Kecil in Indonesia. Seasonal upwellings occur here, bringing cooler water to the surface that’s likely to limit the severity of heatwaves.

Identifying these future havens for coral reefs will help maximise the success of coral conservation strategies such as assisted evolution, coral restoration or transplantation.

These strategies can help maintain healthy coral populations at local scales, particularly if used on reefs where future climate impacts will be lower. By pinpointing these havens, our research will strengthen coral conservation.

Our research includes a user-friendly web-based tool for mapping future coral bleaching. It will help pinpoint locations for effective management interventions.

Curbing greenhouse gas emissions is the main solution to reduce future climate impacts on corals. However, other strategies are also vital to maximise coral reefs’ adaptation to climate change.

Camille Mellin receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the University of Adelaide’s Environment Institute.

Damien Fordham receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Devastating coral bleaching will be more common, start earlier and last longer unless we cut emissions – https://theconversation.com/devastating-coral-bleaching-will-be-more-common-start-earlier-and-last-longer-unless-we-cut-emissions-232473

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anthony Waddle, Schmidt Science Fellow in Conservation Biology, Macquarie University

All over the world, frogs are being wiped out by the chytrid fungus. At least 500 species have declined, including as many as 90 species now presumed extinct.

This catastrophic and ongoing biodiversity loss surpasses the devastation wrought by other notorious invasive species such as cats, rats and even cane toads. Short of removing species from the wild and treating them in captivity, few strategies exist to deal with the chytrid threat.

Our new research, published today in the journal Nature, offers a promising option.

Outbreaks of chytrid (pronounced “KY-trid”) are more common in cold winter months – just like seasonal human flu. We found a way to combat these winter outbreaks using heat. Our purpose-built “frog saunas” allow affected amphibians to warm up and bake off their infections. They are so simple you can build a frog sauna using supplies from the hardware store.

Why should we care about frogs?

If frogs’ good looks are not enough for you to care about their welfare, perhaps learning how they contribute to the environment or human health will pique your interest.

Frogs eat insects that carry and spread human diseases. Their skin is also a rich source of new medicines that could help us combat antibiotic-resistant “superbugs” or curb the startling increase in opioid addiction.

The frogs themselves are food for many predators, including humans.

Often starting life as a tadpole eating algae, before morphing into a carnivorous adult, frogs carry energy from aquatic ecosystems onto land – where it can be transferred throughout the food web. So losing a single frog species can have serious flow-on effects.

The origin and spread of chytrid

It’s likely the chytrid fungus originated in Asia, where the pathogen seems to coexist with native amphibians. But chytrid is deadly elsewhere, possibly because other frogs have no natural defences.

Chytrid harms frogs by disrupting the integrity of their skin, depleting electrolytes needed for heart function. Infected frogs can die of cardiac arrest.

Chytrid has spread worldwide through the trade of amphibians, becoming a seemingly permanent part of ecosystems. As eradicating chytrid from the wild is not possible, we need a way to help frogs battle infection.

Introducing frog saunas

Research has shown chytrid is worse in winter. My colleagues and I wondered whether, if frogs had access to warmth during winter, could they fight off infection?

The fungus can’t tolerate high temperatures, so if we gave frogs a place to stay warm – even for a few hours a day – perhaps they could survive and recover.

We tested this idea, both in the laboratory and in outdoor experiments.

First we established that endangered green and golden bell frogs will select temperatures that reduce or eliminate chytrid infections, when given the opportunity.

Then we conducted experiments in the lab, with 66 infected frogs. The group given the option of choosing the temperature they liked best rapidly cleared their infection. The group placed in a set, warm temperature also cleared their infection, but it took longer. The low-temperature control group remained infected.

Next, we wanted to see what would happen if frogs that cured infections with heat would still get sick. Or were they immune? The group of 23 heat-cured frogs were 22 times more likely to survive the second infection than the 23 frogs that were heat-treated but not previously infected. So frogs cured with heat acquire resistance to future infections.

Finally, we wanted to see if this could work in a natural setting. We ran outdoor experiments with 239 frogs. Half were infected with chytrid one week before the experiment began. Then they were placed in enclosures with artificial structures that heat up in the sun, called “frog saunas”. But the frogs could choose from shaded and unshaded areas, with or without saunas.

We found frogs flocked to the sunny saunas, heated up their little bodies, and quickly fought off infection. Think of frog saunas as little factories that pump out healthy, chytrid-resistant frogs.

The frog saunas could be used on a wider scale. We believe they would be best suited to supporting populations of Australian green and golden bell frogs, but they could be useful for other species too.

The saunas are made of inexpensive materials that can be found at your local hardware store, making them accessible to the general public and wildlife managers alike.

We are already building shelters at Sydney Olympic Park, working with Macquarie University and the Sydney Olympic Park Authority. The park is home to one of the largest remaining populations of green and golden bell frogs.

Want to get involved?

You can become a citizen scientist and help save frogs from extinction. Start by downloading the FrogID app to learn how frogs are faring. Record frog calls with the app for scientists to identify them. This helps provide valuable data for frog conservation.

Build a frog sauna for your backyard, to help keep them healthy through winter.

It’s essentially a brick-filled greenhouse, warmed by sunlight. All you need is some common clay ten-hole masonry bricks, black paint and cable ties – and a little greenhouse to put the sauna inside.

Changing the fate of frogs

Since the discovery of chytrid more than 25 years ago, the pathogen has been a seemingly insurmountable challenge to endangered frog conservation. Now, we have developed a promising, inexpensive and widely applicable strategy to combat chytrid.

Amphibians are such a diverse group that no single approach will be suitable for all species. So this is no silver bullet. But a useful tool for even one threatened or endangered species is cause for optimism.

The concept could also be applied to other wildlife diseases, where differences between the physiology of the host and pathogen can be exploited.

Anthony Waddle received research funding from the Holsworth Wildlife Research Endowment, the Frog and Tadpole Study Group of New South Wales, the Royal Zoological Society of New South Wales, the Australian Research Council, Macquarie University, the University of Melbourne, and CSIRO. Anthony was supported by scholarships from the University of Melbourne and the American Australian Assocation. He is currently supported by a fellowship from the Schmidt Science Fellows, in partnership with the Rhodes Trust.

– ref. Our ‘frog saunas’ could help save endangered species from the devastating chytrid fungus – https://theconversation.com/our-frog-saunas-could-help-save-endangered-species-from-the-devastating-chytrid-fungus-231605

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cher McGillivray, Assistant Professor Psychology Department, Bond University

Have you ever asked your child to do something simple but no matter how many times you ask, they keep ignoring you?

For example, on a school morning you may call out, “Sarah, put your shoes on. We have to go!” as you are trying to finish an email, clean up breakfast dishes and make it to work on time yourself.

You get no answer and no signs of shoe wearing. So you repeat it, this time a little louder and then again. You finally get a frustrated response from your child: “but I can’t find my shoes!”. And so you yell back, “well you should have had them organised last night like I told you!” Yet again, you are all starting the day stressed.

You may find yourself wondering why it seems your kids listen to their teachers, coaches, friends’ parents … basically anyone else but you.

Why is this? And how can you talk to your child so they listen?

Your child’s development and their ability to listen

As a starting point, it may help to understand children don’t have the same capacity to listen as adult. Or the same capacity to care about what you are asking them.

Children between two and seven are naturally ego-centric.

This means they think mostly about themselves and their immediate needs. They are not are likely to to be able to take on other people’s perspectives. So they don’t care that if they muck around and don’t put their shoes you might miss your important 9 o’clock meeting.

Around 13, the brain starts to change. Research shows teenagers start to find voices that are not from their family more interesting. This is part of growing up, preparing them for life beyond their family.

This marks a significant shift from younger children, whose brains are primarily attuned to prioritise their parents’ voices. But it also means when you ask your adolescent to unpack the dishwasher before they leave for school, they are less likely to think it is important.

This situation can be made more complex if a child is neurodivergent and has issues with attention or taking on new information. Or if they have hearing issues.

Why do they listen to their teacher but not me?

Kids also tend to be more comfortable with their parents than any other adults. So they know they can zone out from us and we will still love them.

This is not the same with a school teacher, netball coach or other adult they are less familiar with. There are extra factors working in a teacher’s favour (although teachers will tell you, students do not listen all the time).

Schools have a structured approach that naturally enforces rules and consistency. For examples, bells ring to signal the start of the day, the teacher stands at the front of the class to signal the start of a lesson. Teachers are also trained in how to teach as well as skills to manage classroom dynamics effectively.

Peer pressure – and the desire to fit in – can also work in a positive way here, too. If all the other kids in the class or soccer team are doing what they are told, other kids are likely to follow suit.

Communication is not just talking

So there are some things stacked against us as parents. But there are things we can do to approach this parent-child dynamic differently.

According to psychologist Albert Mehrabian’s model of communication, only 7% of our feelings and attitudes are conveyed through the words we use in spoken communications. He suggests 38% is via tone and voice and the remaining 55% is conveyed through body language.

So when our children are not speaking back, they are still communicating with us. They could be doing this via facial expressions, posture and hand gestures. These can all give us clues to help us connect and communicate with them.

For example, their silence may mean, “I can’t find my shoes. But I’m worried I might get in trouble” Or it could mean, “I don’t want to go to school today”. Or, “I am finding this drawing I am doing really fun and I don’t want to stop”.

What can you do differently?

So if Sarah has not responded or appeared with her shoes on, instead of yelling out again, you could try going and finding where she is. Crouch down to her level, make eye contact and with a smile, ask if she has any ideas where her shoes are? Would she like some help?

Where you can, it is important to give children choice, so they feel like they have some control over their life.

You are also being what psychologists call a “trustful parent” here. You are signalling to your child they are competent and their opinion matters. You are supporting them to find their lost shoes (rather than fighting against them).

Tips for getting your child to listen

There are also some things we can do as parents to stack the odds in our favour:

• try not to communicate when we are distracted or on the go. This is more likely to result in a calm and gentle instruction or request to your child. If children feel like they are “in trouble” they can go into a defensive mode and zone out

• keep your instructions simple and achievable. Break things down if needs be

• thank your child for doing things.

In the meantime, keep observing the world through their eyes. This may not always result in them doing what you ask, when you ask it. But hopefully it will mean less parental angst for you and your child will also feel heard.

Cher McGillivray does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why won’t my kids listen to me? A psychologist explains – https://theconversation.com/why-wont-my-kids-listen-to-me-a-psychologist-explains-231831

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Natasha Szuhan, Lecturer, History and Sociology, Australian National University

This year, Australian news outlets have covered several highly concerning incidents of AI-generated deepfake porn being used to target women and girls.

In May, a Discord list created by Year 11 boys at Yarra Valley Grammar made headlines for its ranking of female students using terms such as “object”, “mid” and “unrapeable”.

That same month, a male student at Salesian College was expelled for spreading deepfake porn images of a female teacher. More recently, deepfake nudes depicting about 50 female students from Bacchus Marsh Grammar were circulated online.

These events have sparked outrage among parents, teachers, students and the broader public as we realise any girl or woman can now be targeted.

This kind of gender-based abuse doesn’t occur in a vacuum. So, is porn itself partly to blame for men’s exploitation of women via porn? It’s something feminists have debated for decades.

Despite the sexual revolution that spread across the Western world in the 1960s, Western feminists have been unable to reach a consensus on whether porn is a largely liberating force, or an oppressive one.

How harmful is porn? The jury is out

Contemporary feminists have a complicated relationship with porn. Some say it can be ethical, educational and empowering, while others say its many mental, physical and social harms far outweigh any benefits.

The research, too, is far from conclusive. While some studies shows an association between porn consumption and harmful real-world attitudes, there is little evidence as to if or how the viewing of porn itself could impact these attitudes.

In Australia, the average age of first porn exposure is 13.2 years for males and 14.1 years for females. But despite a more recent focus on young people, there remains a large blind spot in the research when it comes to the kinds of porn young people are viewing.

We know from research that people learn sexual norms while viewing explicit content. We also know exposure to porn impacts young people’s expectations of sexual encounters. As such, we should be open to the possibility of a link between young people’s porn consumption and sexual violence.

And while porn comes in many forms, ranging from romantic to very exploitative categories, these genres are generally hosted on the same domain, which can make it hard to avoid certain types. In Pornhub’s 2023 Year in Review, many of the most popular categories reflected the objectification, domination and degradation of women.

The start of the sex wars

In the 1980s, the “sex wars” were fought between two factions of women: “anti-porn” and “pro-sex” feminists. The former focused on the harms of porn while the latter’s emphasis was on sexually liberating women from social and gender norms.

The anti-porn feminists, most notably US activists
Andrea Dworkin and Catherine Mackinnon, argued the sexual culture that emerged after the sexual revolution actually undermined women’s sexual autonomy and power. They warned that porn was exacerbating this by romanticising sexual violence and the domination and dehumanisation of women.

They proposed addressing the issue by introducing civil rights ordinances based on the premise that pornography “constitutes discrimination on the basis of sex” since it naturalised female subordination to men. These laws would allow women who had been sexually discriminated against or harmed as a result of porn to sue pornographers civilly.

The counter group of pro-sex (or “sex-postive”) feminists came to the fore at a 1982 conference on sexuality at Barnard College, New York. When the ordinances were proposed, they baulked at the assertion that feminists could rely on the patriarchal political system to fix the problem – but offered no alternative.

While the pro-sex group agreed porn could be misogynistic, they opposed the anti-porn stance as it diverted attention away from their focus: women’s “own sexual desires”.

Eventually, the pro-sex position congealed around the idea of women’s sexual liberation and choice, while the anti-porn position increasingly became associated with prudishness and even alleged misandry (“man-hating”).

As the pro-sex feminists emerged victorious, legitimate concerns about the oppressive relationship between sex, violence and power were stifled – and sexual domination in porn was recast as being liberating. “Sex-positive” feminism continues to flourish today.

The ongoing division between feminists ultimately allowed for the porn industry to expand. Collectively, feminists were unable to reckon with the normalisation of female submission in sex and society.

Is there a solution?

The sex wars teach us two things. The first is that political solutions to cultural problems don’t work if they don’t address root issues. The second is that socio-sexual problems require a whole-of-community remedy.

We need to have a candid conversation about how to approach sexism more broadly, to ultimately find responses that support women in dealing with the social and interpersonal effects of porn. We might start, for instance, by taking the burden off individuals and holding the porn and social media industries accountable for helping to spread exploitative content.

As many experts have pointed out, the government’s proposed age verification legislation – which looks to restrict kids’ access to porn – is unlikely to address existing societal issues of abuse and misogyny. The solution, instead, will require integrating the pro-sex and anti-porn positions and concerns. Together, both groups must settle on a shared vision of liberal female sexuality in the digital age.

In 2024, the sexual liberation of women hasn’t prevented them from being abused, exploited and objectified via harmful forms of porn. Until we can all agree on the parameters of the root issues – misogyny, patriarchy and power – it’s unlikely this exploitation will stop.

Failing that, new generations will have to grapple with even more technologically extreme versions of these issues.

Natasha Szuhan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Feminists can’t agree whether porn is harmful or liberating – and in this vacuum, image-based abuse continues – https://theconversation.com/feminists-cant-agree-whether-porn-is-harmful-or-liberating-and-in-this-vacuum-image-based-abuse-continues-232494

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rosemary Hill, Adjunct Professor, James Cook University

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s pledge to build seven nuclear energy plants, if elected, has triggered heated political debate – mostly about the costs and timetable of the plan. But the concept of nuclear energy in Australia must overcome an arguably even bigger hurdle: how to dispose of high-level nuclear waste.

Nuclear power is only a viable alternative to fossil fuel burning if there is somewhere to store the waste – and only if this can be done safely, without exorbitant cost and with community support.

A CSIRO analysis last month showed there is no economic argument for nuclear energy in Australia, even without considering the substantial cost of waste disposal and storage. Include waste in the maths, and the Coalition’s proposal looks a whole lot worse.

What’s more, nuclear power stations produce high-level radioactive waste. It is dangerous for hundreds of thousands of years — and so far, the world has failed to deliver a safe, permanent storage method. Is this a problem Australia really wants to take on?

What is high-level nuclear waste?

Nuclear reactors work by using fission, or the splitting of uranium atoms, to produce energy. Once the uranium has been used to produce energy it is considered “spent”. Spent fuel can either be disposed of or reprocessed to recover and reuse some of its contents, such as plutonium. Both spent and reprocessed nuclear fuel must eventually be disposed of.

Nuclear waste is classed according to how much radiation it emits – either low, intermediate or high. Nuclear power plants produce high-level waste, which is radioactive for a very long time.

Negative health effects in humans from exposure to high-level radiation include birth defects, impaired tissue and organ functioning, and increased risk of cancer.

Nuclear waste only becomes safe after it decays. For high-level waste, this can take hundreds of thousands of years. That means the waste must be disposed of and stored for a very, very long time.

How is high-level nuclear waste currently stored?

No permanent and safe storage for high-level nuclear waste is yet in operation.

The current temporary options are either “wet” or “dry” storage. Wet storage entails putting the waste in a pond and covering it with several metres of water to keep it cool. Dry storage involves putting the waste in containers made of concrete and steel.

These options are not a long-term solution. They are vulnerable to corrosion as well as natural disasters such as cyclones, tsunamis, earthquakes, fires and floods.

There are also risks from human-induced hazards such as war, terrorist attack, arson and accidents. For example, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has threatened the safety of Ukrainian nuclear facilities such as the Zaporizhzhya plant, where spent nuclear fuel rods are reportedly kept in metal casks inside concrete containers in an open-air yard.

Can we put it underground?

Each reactor – even the small ones – will produce several tonnes of high-level waste each year – far more than the Coke can-sized amount of waste Dutton claims. The Coalition says it would find a permanent solution for storing nuclear waste from the plants. This is easier said than done.

The only permanent storage solution on the cards around the world is to place it in a “deep geological repository”. This involves encasing the waste and lowering it into a chamber drilled far underground. There are many challenges associated with this storage method. They include:

• cost: the construction, decommissioning, closure and monitoring of such a facility in South Australia has been estimated at A$41 billion

• siting: the location must be geologically stable, to prevent waste from escaping over many thousands of years

• transport: the further waste has to be moved, the greater the safety risks. This is relevant to the Coalition’s plan, under which seven nuclear sites would be distributed around Australia

• preventing corrosion and leakage: the waste container must be sufficiently robust to corrosion and the invasion of microbes. The shaft to the underground storage also needs to be sealed

• social acceptance: in a democratic country such as Australia, communities must agree to host a nuclear waste site and be satisfied it is safe. This includes securing “free, prior and informed consent” from Traditional Owners.

Finland is the country closest to realising this storage method. It has selected a site for a deep geological repository 500 metres underground, and begun construction. But the project has taken decades and suffered numerous technical problems.

Scientists have also raised safety concerns, such as how the project will perform over the very long term, including during freezing of rocks in the next ice age.

Neither the United Kingdom nor the United States has moved beyond temporary storage of high-level nuclear waste.

The Coalition must come clean

Other nations have struggled to find long-term solutions for nuclear waste storage. There is every reason to expect Australia would face the same problems.

Importantly, Australia has for decades failed to find a suitable place for the long-term storage of small quantities of low- and intermediate-level nuclear waste from medical isotopes and the Lucas Heights research reactor. Even though these wastes are comparatively benign, every proposal has faced strong local opposition.

Ahead of the next federal election, the Coalition must explain to Australians how and where it intends to store radioactive waste from its nuclear plants. Without that detail, voters cannot fairly assess the plan.

Rosemary Hill is affiliated with the International Union for the Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Commission on Economic, Environmental and Social Policy, and the World Commission on Protected Areas.

Ian Lowe was President of the Australian Conservation Foundation from 2004 to 2014. His doctoral research was funded by the UK Atomic Energy Authority.

– ref. Nuclear energy creates the most dangerous form of radioactive waste. Where does Peter Dutton plan to put it? – https://theconversation.com/nuclear-energy-creates-the-most-dangerous-form-of-radioactive-waste-where-does-peter-dutton-plan-to-put-it-233213

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amin Naeni, PhD candidate in digital technologies in Iran, Deakin University

After Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash on May 20, the Iranian government had to schedule an early election to choose a new president.

The regime has approved six presidential candidates to run in the election on June 28. The pool includes four hardliners, one centrist and one reformist.

The main competition is expected to be between two hardliners and the reformist candidate. One of the hardliners is Saeed Jalili, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council from 2007 to 2013. He is likely to receive support among ideologically similar segments of society.

The other hardliner, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the current speaker of parliament, is also hoping to secure the votes of pro-regime supporters. There is some speculation that one of these candidates may withdraw in favour of the other.

The sole reformist candidate, Masoud Pezeshkian, currently an MP, is seeking to revive the social capital of the so-called reformist camp. Under former President Hassan Rouhani administration’s from 2013 to 2021, reformists failed to fulfil their promises and gradually aligned themselves with the centre of power, where they remain.

All of the candidates, including Pezeshkian, have emphasised their commitment to adhering to the policies set forth by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. As a result, the question of who will win has lost any real significance.

The more pressing issue will be the voter turnout. Recent parliamentary and presidential elections have seen less than 50% voter turnout, the lowest it’s ever been since the 1979 revolution. Iran’s leaders have also faced multiple nationwide protests in recent years.

Thus, the clerical establishment’s primary objective is to encourage public participation in this week’s election and restore its legitimacy.

This might be a tall order. According to a survey conducted by the Iranian Students Polling Agency, 73% of participants reported not watching the first televised presidential debate on June 18. The agency has also noted that only 18.5% of respondents said they are seriously following election news.

This lack of engagement has created a strange situation in recent weeks. To boost voter turnout, the Iranian leadership and its approved candidates are using social media to try to engage with Iranians – despite the fact all major Western social media platforms have been blocked in the country.

So, how is this working?

The Iranian government has blocked Western platforms like X (formerly Twitter), Instagram, Facebook, WhatsApp and Telegram because of the potential they could be used during protests to fuel greater unrest.

However, around 80% of people use Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) to get around the restrictions.

Many Iranian officials themselves are also active on these restricted platforms. For instance, Hossein Dalirian, spokesman for Iran’s National Cyberspace Center, a body at the core of internet censorship in Iran, tweeted recently:

I suggest that all six candidates use this [cyber] space to present their plans.

Meanwhile, the official news agency, IRNA, has advocated for increased online activity, emphasising the fact there are “31 million active [Iranian] users” on Instagram. It also reported that “lethargy” has resulted in insufficient engagement with election news on social media, in particular Instagram.

What are the candidates saying?

Amid the growing government concerns over electoral engagement, some of the candidates have significantly boosted their presence on the blocked platforms to try to reach everyday Iranians. The table below shows how many posts the six candidates have put on X from June 10–23:

Most of these candidates have previously supported internet censorship, highlighting the paradox in their campaign strategies. For instance, in February, Jalili advocated for more stringent internet restrictions, warning that without bold action, “the country will face damage”.

Yet, the campaigns are now strategically using social media to highlight issues likely to resonate with younger voters.

For instance, all of them have voiced their opposition to the morality police’s enforcement of women wearing the hijab in public. They have also positioned themselves, hypocritically, as champions of internet freedom.

Jalili, for example, has tweeted his “admiration for active users of cyberspace” and has described online platforms as a “valuable opportunity that should not be left behind”.

The reformist candidate, Pezeshkian, has promised to “free the internet” and “stand against censorship”, while being mindful to toe the line and maintain allegiance to the Supreme Leader.

He has also condemned the use of “violence” against women without a hijab.

Similarly, Ghalibaf has been so bold as to state internet censorship is unjustifiable given that “VPN usage has reached 67%”. (It was not clear where his statistic came from.)

Is this online engagement working?

These statements reveal a calculated effort to appeal to the youth and the broader public’s growing demand for social and political change. Beyond the official accounts of the candidates, an extensive network of supporters are also promoting their narratives on X, Instagram and Telegram.

However, despite these efforts, public engagement has reportedly remained low. A Tehran-based data analytics company reported on June 23 that, less than a week before the election, online public engagement is “very far” from creating a vibrant electoral atmosphere.

This persistently low engagement suggests voter turnout will remain a significant challenge for the clerical establishment. Under these conditions, a reported high voter turnout on Friday would either be an astonishing development or a fabricated claim.

Amin Naeni does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Social media platforms are blocked in Iran. Candidates in this week’s presidential election are embracing them anyway – https://theconversation.com/social-media-platforms-are-blocked-in-iran-candidates-in-this-weeks-presidential-election-are-embracing-them-anyway-232717

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Carol Maher, Professor, Medical Research Future Fund Emerging Leader, University of South Australia

Anyone who lived through the COVID pandemic would likely understand that even a small period of isolation can cause physical and mental stress.

WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange – who will return to Australia after reaching a plea deal with the US Department of Justice – is reported to have suffered various mental and physical challenges during his almost 15 years in some form of isolation.

Assange was first arrested in Britain in 2010 after Swedish authorities said they wanted to question him over sex crime allegations.

After exhausting legal avenues to stop an extradition to Sweden, in June 2012 he entered Ecuador’s embassy in London, where he remained for seven years.

In early 2019, he was jailed for skipping bail and held at London’s Belmarsh prison where he spent most of the following five years fighting extradition to the US. Now, he’s coming home.

While we have no idea how Assange is coping from being cooped up inside for so long with few visitors, we do know that isolation can have a severe negative impact on many people.

How physical inactivity impacts your body

Physical activity is vital for overall health. It keeps your heart strong, helps manage weight, and builds muscle and bone strength.

Regular exercise also lifts your mood, reducing symptoms of depression and anxiety, and sharpens your mind. Plus, it boosts your immune system, making you more resistant to infections and diseases.

When you don’t move enough, especially in isolation, your health can take a hit. Muscles weaken and joints stiffen, making you less strong and flexible.

Your heart health suffers, too, raising the risk of high blood pressure, heart attacks and strokes because your heart isn’t getting the workout it needs.

Metabolic issues such as obesity and type 2 diabetes become more common with inactivity, especially if you don’t have access to healthy food.

Isolation often means less fresh air and sunlight, both crucial for good health. Poor ventilation can lead to respiratory problems. Lack of sunlight can cause vitamin D deficiency, weakening bones and the immune system, and increasing the risk of fractures.

These effects fit with the reports that Assange suffered a mini-stroke in 2021 and a broken rib from persistent coughing fits while in isolation.

What about mental health?

Social disconnection comes in two main forms, both of which have serious consequences for our mental health.

The first is social isolation. The reasons for being isolated are many and varied, including geographical distance, lack of access to transport, or incarceration.

The end result is the same: you have few relationships, social roles or group memberships, and limited social interaction.

The second form of social disconnection is more invisible but just as harmful.

Loneliness is that subjective, unpleasant feeling of wanting but lacking satisfying relationships with others.

You can be isolated and not feel lonely, but the two are often unwelcome bedfellows.

Social connection is not a luxury. It’s a fundamental need, as essential to our health as food and water.

Just as hunger reminds us to eat, loneliness acts as a signal alerting us that our social relationships are weak and need to be improved if we are to remain healthy.

The science around the health impacts of social disconnection is clear, especially when it is prolonged. So much so, the World Health Organization recently launched a Commission on Social Connection to increase awareness of the impact of social isolation and loneliness on health and have it recognised as a global health priority.

Substantial evidence shows social isolation and loneliness are linked to poorer cognitive functioning and an increased risk of dementia, though possibly in different ways.

Among adults aged 50 years and over, chronic (meaning persistent and severe) loneliness and social isolation may increase the risk of dementia by around 50%.

A lack of cognitive stimulation that naturally occurs when interacting with others, whether it’s old friends or strangers, might explain the link between social isolation and cognitive difficulties (think “use it or lose it”).

On the other hand, loneliness may impact cognitive health through its effects on emotional wellbeing. It’s a well-known risk factor for developing depression, anxiety and suicidality.

For instance, studies show the chances of developing depression in adults is more than double in people who often feel lonely, compared with those who rarely or never feel lonely.

Other research examining 500,000 middle-aged adults over nine years showed living alone doubled the risk of dying by suicide for men, while loneliness increased the risk of hospitalisation for self-harm in both men and women.

In a 2023 report, the US Surgeon General’s advisory concluded:

Given the totality of the evidence, social connection may be one of the strongest protective factors against self-harm and suicide among people with and without serious underlying mental health challenges.

What about after release?

When a person leaves long-term isolation, they’ll face many challenges as they re-enter society.

The world will have changed. There’s a lot to catch up on, from technological advancements to shifts in social norms.

In addition to these broader changes, there’s a need to focus on rebuilding physical and mental health. Health issues that developed during isolation can persist or worsen. A weakened immune system might struggle with new infections in a post-COVID world.

To navigate this transition, it’s important to establish a routine that includes regular exercise, nutritious meals and comprehensive medical and psychological care.

Gradually increasing social interactions can also help in rebuilding relationships and social connections. These steps are supportive in restoring overall health and wellbeing in a changed world.

Carol Maher receives funding from the Medical Research Future Fund, the National Health and Medical Research Council, the National Heart Foundation, the Channel 7 Children’s Research Foundation, the SA Department for Education, the SA Office for Early Child Development, Preventive Health SA, the SA Department for Innovation and Skills, the SA Office for Recreation, Sport and Racing, Healthway, Hunter New England Local Health District, the Central Adelaide Local Health Network, LeapForward, EML, and the 15 Minute Challenge.

Johanna Badcock is a co-founder and board member of the Global Initiative on Loneliness and Connection. She receives consultancy fees from National Institutes of Health. She is affiliated with The University of Western Australia.

– ref. Julian Assange was isolated for more than a decade. Here’s what that does to the body and mind – https://theconversation.com/julian-assange-was-isolated-for-more-than-a-decade-heres-what-that-does-to-the-body-and-mind-233214

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Isaac Gross, Lecturer in Economics, Monash University

A key measure of inflation has jumped, climbing to 4% in May after edging up from a recent low of 3.4% in February.

The Bureau of Statistics monthly consumer price indicator produced an annual inflation rate of 3.6% in April. This was the same as the longer-established Bureau of Statistics quarterly measure, which produced 3.6% in March.

The upward turn suggests the Reserve Bank will have to revisit the case for an interest rate hike when it meets next in early August.

At that meeting, it will also have before it the monthly and the quarterly figures for June, which will be released in late July.

The most significant contributors to the annual increase were housing, food and non-alcoholic beverages, transport, and alcohol and tobacco.

These are the industries that have been grappling with elevated costs, reflecting broader global supply chain disruptions and domestic market dynamics, especially those related to housing.

The Reserve Bank has kept its cash rate on hold since November despite inflation remaining a good deal above its 2–3% target band.

Adding to pressure on the board to increase rates once again will be Australia’s resilient labour market, which continues to record historically low unemployment.

Is it as bad as it sounds?

The answer is no, and yes. While the annual headline inflation rate did jump to 4%, part of the jump was due to what economists call “base effects”.

When today’s figures for May 2024 arrived, the figure for May 2023 dropped out of the annual calculation. That figure was particularly low (prices fell by 0.42% that month), making an increase in the measured annual rate published today all but inevitable.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted today that the monthly index actually “edged down” in May, falling 0.1%.

But to get an accurate read, it is best to focus on an “underlying” measure that tries to adjust for noisy month-to-month jumps.

Andrew Lilley, an economist at Barrenjoey, believes the best underlying measure is one that adjusts for seasonal differences and excludes the price of travel and some other volatile purchases.

This underlying rate of inflation has remained consistently above 4% over the past year, well above the Reserve Bank’s inflation target.

But, ultimately, the most important word in the bureau’s description of its monthly consumer price index indicator is “indicator”.

The monthly indicator isn’t an official figure in the same way as the quarterly consumer price index, which is used in contracts and displayed in big print at the top of the Reserve Bank’s website.

The monthly indicator measures only about 70% of the prices used to produce the quarterly index.

It is the official quarterly index that will guide the Reserve Bank in its decision about whether or not to increase interest rates.

It’ll get it in the last week of July.

Isaac Gross does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Australia’s inflation rate jumps to 4%, putting an RBA rate rise back on the agenda – https://theconversation.com/australias-inflation-rate-jumps-to-4-putting-an-rba-rate-rise-back-on-the-agenda-233331

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Park Thaichon, Associate Professor of Marketing, University of Southern Queensland

The property market is a competitive space where finding a nice home, in the area you want, at a price you can afford is a hard ask.

With buyers outnumbering available properties, the pressure is even greater causing some would-be buyers to develop a fear of missing out (FOMO) and to make irrational decisions.

FOMO might make you worry others are finding nicer homes and getting better deals, or that prices will rise to the point where you are priced out of the market altogether. This could cause you to pay too much or to buy a property in an area unsuitable for your needs.

Then there is fear of making a mistake (FOMM), which can also cause problems if you’re a home hunter. You might be reluctant to bid or to negotiate because you are afraid of choosing the wrong property or paying more than it’s worth.

Problems caused by FOMO and FOMM

The principles of contagion theory, crowd psychology and the scarcity principle we identified in our research on panic-buying during the pandemic, can be applied to any purchasing decisions. In this instance we applied them to buying properties in a competitive housing market.

Contagion theory applies when people act irrationally under the influence of a crowd. Crowd psychology is similar but relates to how a crowd behaves in certain circumstances, while scarcity principle is the idea if there are fewer items available, their value increases.

Each of these can increase the likelihood of several behaviours when purchasing a property. These include:

Underbidding and overbidding

Fearing other buyers might get the house, house hunters might get caught up in a bidding war and end up paying more than planned. Conversely, buyers with FOMM might fear spending too much so bid too low to start with and risk losing the house.

Following the crowd and peer pressure influence

Buyers might feel pressured to buy in a certain area because it’s popular, even if it is not best fit for them. This can lead to paying more for a house just because others are doing the same.

Delaying decisions

FOMM can lead to taking too long to decide. This delay can mean missing out on good deals or being forced to rush into a decision and end up overpaying.

Avoiding negotiation

Some buyers might avoid negotiating the price or special conditions such as building and pest inspections and finance approval because they fear the seller will reject their offer. This can result in paying more than they need to if there are problems later.

Excessive inspections and appraisals

While inspections and appraisals are important, too many can suggest indecisiveness driven by fear, resulting in wasted money on unnecessary assessments, and more importantly, wasted time and delayed decisions.

Removing fear from the buying process

Start with thorough research and preparation by learning about different neighbourhoods and house prices. The history of properties and suburbs can be found for free on property websites and is a good place to start.

Seek professional guidance from real estate agents or financial advisers to help you through the process.

Get insights on market trends from an agent from a selling company or bank to help find homes that meet your criteria. Keep in mind these agents will get some form of incentive from your purchase.

All the big banks or loan officers can provide free property reports on specific properties or suburbs.

Don’t forget to check council mapping and water authority documents to check for potential future road projects and other developments and for an area’s flood rating.

Perform due diligence by thoroughly inspecting properties and reviewing contracts to ensure they meet your needs and are a good investment.

For example, it is a good idea to hire a home inspector to check for any hidden issues before making an offer.

Another common mistake made by most buyers is not asking their solicitor to check and give suggestions before signing a contract or offer.

A solicitor can check the sale contract before you sign, review the disclosure documents, give advice on your mortgage contract, carry out title searches and explain the results and explain how the purchase may affect your liability for land tax.

Do some contingency planning by preparing for unexpected price increases and for the presence of other strong bidders to reduce anxiety about making the wrong decision. Setting aside extra funds could help deal with higher than expected prices or unexpected repairs that need doing.

In the end, plan well and make decisions without letting emotions take over. Taking your time to find the right home that fits your budget and goals, rather than rushing into a purchase due to fear of missing out or making a mistake.

Park Thaichon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How fear of missing out can lead to you paying more when buying a home – https://theconversation.com/how-fear-of-missing-out-can-lead-to-you-paying-more-when-buying-a-home-233197

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lester Munson, Non-Resident Fellow, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney

As incumbent President Joe Biden and his Republican challenger, Donald Trump, prepare for their first debate later this week, one big question hangs over the US presidential race: who will Trump pick as his vice-presidential running mate?

There has been no shortage of speculation on this question. Will Trump choose another loyalist, nationalist type who is unlikely to expand his voter base? Or will he choose someone from the non-populist wing of the GOP in an effort to expand his extremely narrow lead over Biden?

There’s one logical choice for Trump if he wants to go this route. Whether he likes it or not, his best shot at winning could be his chief rival and critic until recently: former Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley.

From critic to supporter

For months during the Republican primary contest, Haley had been unsparingly critical of Trump. She said, among other things, that Trump had “gotten more unstable and unhinged” since leaving office in 2021 and was “not qualified” to be president.

She also said:

He’s taking out his anger on others. He’s getting meaner and more offensive by the day. He’s trying to bully me and anyone who supports me.

Haley had been Trump’s strongest opponent in the primaries, winning contests in Vermont and Washington, DC. Notably, even after her withdrawal from the race in March, she continued to receive significant amounts of votes in states where Trump’s win was assured. These votes were seen as a protest against Trump – and a possible problem for him in the November election.

Read more:
Who will Trump pick as his running mate? In 2024, the ‘Veepstakes’ are higher than usual

But last month Haley changed her tune. In a speech as the new chair of the Hudson Institute, Haley announced she would vote for Trump.

She said she wanted a president who’s going to have the “backs of our allies and hold our enemies to account”, and someone who would also secure the US-Mexico border. She noted Biden had been a “catastrophe” on these issues.

Her announcement divided Republicans. Former national security adviser John Bolton, an anti-trump Republican, questioned Haley’s political calculations and whether she was angling to be his vice president. Republican strategist Sarah Longwell called her a “pathetic coward”.

Other Republicans praised the move, including David Wilkins, who served as US ambassador to Canada in the most recent Bush administration. He said: “Republicans need to be united as best we can.”

A history of sceptical Republican candidates

Haley’s pointed calls for robust American leadership role in the world – including support for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, and more open trade with like-minded, classically liberal nations – has made her the de facto leader of the internationalist (Trump supporters would say “globalist”) wing of the GOP.

This is a precarious position for someone who clearly wanted to be president. The Republican Party, when successful, has generally nominated presidential candidates who were sceptical of international entanglements.

In 1980, for instance, then-candidate Ronald Reagan ran on an agenda that included abrogating the Panama Canal treaty and questioning the newly normalised relations with China.

In 2000, George W. Bush ran against “nation building” and called for a more modest US role in world affairs.

In 2016, Trump expressed pointed opposition to the Iraq war and scepticism of the NATO alliance.

Once in office, of course, Reagan and Bush both shifted to a more internationalist approach.

Trump had more of a mixed record. He withdrew the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Iran nuclear deal and remained critical of American alliances. However, he didn’t pull the US out of NATO, as some feared, and actually improved American diplomacy in the Middle East by promoting the Abraham Accords between Israel and Arab nations.

How Haley could help

Trump can boost his campaign now by adding Haley’s internationalist credentials and voting base to his presidential ticket.

The Republicans successfully used this model in 1980 with an “America first” candidate at the top of the ticket (Reagan) and an experienced diplomatic hand (George H.W. Bush) as the vice-presidential candidate. (Both Bush and Haley are former US ambassadors to the United Nations.)

This option would, of course, depend on Trump’s willingness to invite Haley onto the ticket. Last month, Trump was more conciliatory towards his once-bitter rival, saying:

Well, I think she’s going to be on our team because we have a lot of the same ideas, the same thoughts.

While most anti-Trump Republicans will come back to the party in November when votes really count, Haley’s place on the ticket would ensure this. Her position as a possible vice president would also appeal to independent voters and perhaps even some Democrats who are upset with Biden’s performance in office.

The 2024 election is also likely to be Trump’s last campaign at the national level. If he wins, he will be a lame duck, unable to run again. (US presidents can only serve for two terms.) If he loses, he’ll be a spent political force and (likely) too old in 2028 to be a viable candidate.

So, after the 2024 election is settled, the Republican Party will begin looking to the future. Haley’s best – and probably only – chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination in 2028 is with Trump’s implicit endorsement as his running mate this year.

Lester Munson receives funding from the U.S. Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. He is affiliated with BGR Group, a Washington, D.C., consulting firm and is a former Republican official in the George W. Bush administration and on Capitol Hill.

– ref. Why Trump’s best chance of winning the US election might be tapping a once-bitter rival as his vice president – https://theconversation.com/why-trumps-best-chance-of-winning-the-us-election-might-be-tapping-a-once-bitter-rival-as-his-vice-president-233097

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Ricketson, Professor of Communication, Deakin University

“The price of freedom is eternal vigilance” is a famous quotation usually attributed to Thomas Jefferson, a founder of US democracy.

For Julian Assange, the price of freedom has been five years in jail while he fought extradition to the United States to face charges no democracy worthy of the name should ever have brought.

It is profoundly heartening news to see Assange’s release from London’s Belmarsh prison and flight home to Australia via a US territory in the western pacific. He’ll face a hearing and sentencing this morning in Saipan in the Northern Mariana Islands, to formalise a plea deal with the US government.

It is profoundly disheartening, though, to see the lengths to which a nation state has gone to punish a publisher who released documents and videos that revealed US troops allegedly committing war crimes in the Iraq war two decades ago.

Assange has been a controversial international figure for so many years now it’s easy to lose sight of what he has done, why he attracted such fiercely polarised views, and what his incarceration means for journalism and democracy.

What did he do?

Assange, an Australian national, came to prominence in the 2000s for setting up WikiLeaks, a website that published leaked government, military and intelligence documents disclosing a range of scandals in various countries.

Most of the documents were released in full. For Assange, this fulfilled his aim of radical transparency. For critics, it led to the release of documents that could endanger the lives of intelligence sources.

This remains a point of contention. Some have asserted Assange’s attitude toward those named in leaked documents was cavalier and that the publication of some documents was simply unnecessary.

But critics, especially those in the US military, have been unable to point to specific instances in which the release of documents has led to a person’s death. In 2010, Joe Biden, the then vice-president, acknowledged WikiLeaks’ publications had caused “no substantive damage”. Then US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said at the time countries dealt with the US because it was in their best interests, “not because they believe we can keep secrets”.

The key to WikiLeaks’ success was that Assange and his colleagues found a way to encrypt the documents and make them untraceable, to protect whistleblower sources from official retribution. It was a strategy later copied by mainstream media organisations.

WikiLeaks became famous around the globe in April 2010 when it released hundreds of thousands of documents in tranches known as the Afghan war logs, the Iraq war logs and Cablegate. They revealed numerous alleged war crimes and provided the raw material for a shadow history of the disastrous wars waged by the Americans and their allies, including Australia, in Afghanistan and Iraq following the September 11 2001 terrorist attacks.

Documents are one thing, video another. Assange released a video called “Collateral Murder”. It showed US soldiers in a helicopter shooting and killing Iraqi civilians and two Reuters journalists in 2007.

Apart from how the soldiers in the video speak – “Hahaha, I hit them”, “Nice”, “Good shot” – it looks like most of the victims are civilians and the journalists’ cameras are mistaken for rifles.

When one of the wounded men tries to crawl to safety, the helicopter crew, instead of allowing their US comrades on the ground to take him prisoner as required by the rules of war, seeks permission to shoot him again.

The soldiers’ request for authorisation to shoot is granted. The wounded man is carried to a nearby minibus, which is then shot to pieces with the helicopter’s gun. The driver and two other rescuers are killed instantly while the driver’s two young children inside are seriously wounded.

US army command investigated the matter, concluding the soldiers acted in accordance with the rules of war. Despite this, US prosecutors didn’t include the video in its indictment against Assange, leading to accusations it didn’t want such material further exposed in public.

Equally to the point, the public would never have known an alleged war crime had been committed without the release of the video.

Going into exile

Assange and WikiLeaks had no sooner become famous than it all began to come to a halt.

He was alleged to have sexually assaulted two women. He holed up the Ecuadoran embassy in London for seven years to avoid being extradited to Sweden for questioning over the alleged assaults, from where he could then be extradited to the US. Then he was imprisoned in England for the past five years.

It has been confusing to following the byzantine twists and turns of the Assange case. His character has been reviled by his opponents and revered by his supporters.

Even journalists, who are supposed to be in the same business of speaking truth to power, have adopted contradictory stances towards Assange, oscillating between giving him awards (a Walkley for his outstanding contribution to journalism) and shunning him (The New York Times has said he is a source rather than a journalist).

Personal suffering

After Sweden eventually dropped the sexual assault charges, the US government swiftly ramped up its request to extradite Assange to face charges under the Espionage Act, which, if successful, could have led to a jail term of up to 175 years.

Until this week, most of the recent headlines about Assange have been about this extradition attempt. Most recently, he was granted the right to appeal the UK Home Secretary’s order that he be extradited to the US.

Read more:
Julian Assange’s appeal to avoid extradition will go ahead. It could be legally groundbreaking

This brings us to now, where if all goes according to legal planning, Assange will plead guilty to one count under the US Espionage Act, then fly back to Australia.

But the long, protracted and very public case, legal or otherwise, has raised questions yet to be fully reckoned with.

Nils Melzer, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on Torture, thoroughly investigated the case against Assange and laid it out in forensic detail in a 2022 book.

In it, he wrote:

The Assange case is the story of a man who is being persecuted and abused for exposing the dirty secrets of the powerful, including war crimes, torture and corruption. It is a story of deliberate judicial arbitrariness in Western democracies that are otherwise keen to present themselves as exemplary in the area of human rights.

He’s also suffered significantly in legal and diplomatic processes in at least four countries.

Since being imprisoned in 2019, Assange’s team says he’s spent much of that time in solitary confinement for up to 23 hours a day, has been denied all but the most limited access to his legal team, let alone family and friends, and was kept in a glass box during his seemingly interminable extradition hearing.

His physical and mental health have suffered to the point where he has been put on suicide watch. Again, that seems to be the point, as Melzer writes:

The primary purpose of persecuting Assange is not – and never has been – to punish him personally, but to establish a generic precedent with a global deterrent effect on other journalist, publicists and activists.

So while Assange himself is human and his suffering real, his lengthy time in the spotlight have turned him into more of a symbol. This is true whether you think of him as the hero exposing the dirty secrets of governments, or as something much more sinister.

If his experience has taught us anything, it’s that speaking truth to power can come at an unfathomable personal cost.

Matthew Ricketson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Julian Assange has been in the headlines for almost two decades. Here’s why he’s such a significant public figure – https://theconversation.com/julian-assange-has-been-in-the-headlines-for-almost-two-decades-heres-why-hes-such-a-significant-public-figure-233232

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Leila Jameel, Trial Co-ordinator and Research Therapist, Swinburne University of Technology

Have you ever heard something that others cannot – such as your name being called? Hearing voices or other noises that aren’t there is very common. About 10% of people report experiencing auditory hallucinations at some point in their life.

The experience of hearing voices can be very different from person to person, and can change over time. They might be the voice of someone familiar or unknown. There might be many voices, or just one or two. They can be loud or quiet like a whisper.

For some people these experiences are positive. They might represent a spiritual or supernatural experience they welcome or a comforting presence. But for others these experiences are distressing. Voices can be intrusive, negative, critical or threatening. Difficult voices can make a person feel worried, frightened, embarrassed or frustrated. They can also make it hard to concentrate, be around other people and get in the way of day-to-day activities.

Although not everyone who hears voices has a mental health problem, these experiences are much more common in people who do. They have been considered a hallmark symptom of schizophrenia, which affects about 24 million people worldwide.

However, such experiences are also common in other mental health problems, particularly in mood- and trauma-related disorders (such as bipolar disorder or depression and post-traumatic stress disorder) where as many as half of people may experience them.

Why do people hear voices?

It is unclear exactly why people hear voices but exposure to prolonged stress, trauma or depression can increase the chances.

Some research suggests people who hear voices might have brains that are “wired” differently, particularly between the hearing and speaking parts of the brain. This may mean parts of our inner speech can be experienced as external voices. So, having the thought “you are useless” when something goes wrong might be experienced as an external person speaking the words.

Other research suggests it may relate to how our brains use past experiences as a template to make sense of and make predictions about the world. Sometimes those templates can be so strong they lead to errors in how we experience what is going on around us, including hearing things our brain is “expecting” rather than what is really happening.

What is clear is that when people tell us they are hearing voices, they really are! Their brain perceives voice experiences as if someone were talking in the room. We could think of this “mistake” as working a bit like being susceptible to common optical tricks or visual illusions.

Coping with hearing voices

When hearing voices is getting in the way of life, treatment guidelines recommend the use of medications. But roughly a third of people will experience ongoing distress. As such, treatment guidelines also recommend the use of psychological therapies such as cognitive behavioural therapy.

The next generation of psychological therapies are beginning to use digital technologies and virtual reality offers a promising new medium.

Avatar therapy allows a person to create a virtual representation of the voice or voices, which looks and sounds like what they are experiencing. This can help people regain power in the “relationship” as they interact with the voice character, supported by a therapist.

Jason’s experience

Aged 53, Jason (not his real name) had struggled with persistent voices since his early 20s. Antipsychotic medication had helped him to some extent over the years, but he was still living with distressing voices. Jason tried out avatar therapy as part of a research trial.

He was initially unable to stand up to the voices, but he slowly gained confidence and tested out different ways of responding to the avatar and voices with his therapist’s support.

Jason became more able to set boundaries, such as not listening to them for periods throughout the day. He also felt more able to challenge what they said and make his own choices.

Over a couple of months, Jason started to experience some breaks from the voices each day and his relationship with them started to change. They were no longer like bullies, but more like critical friends pointing out things he could consider or be aware of.

Gaining recognition

Following promising results overseas and its recommendation by the United Kingdom’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, our team has begun adapting the therapy for an Australian context.

We are trialling delivering avatar therapy from our specialist voices clinic via telehealth. We are also testing whether avatar therapy is more effective than the current standard therapy for hearing voices, based on cognitive behavioural therapy.

As only a minority of people with psychosis receive specialist psychological therapy for hearing voices, we hope our trial will support scaling up these new treatments to be available more routinely across the country.

We would like to acknowledge the advice and input of Dr Nadine Keen (consultant clinical psychologist at South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust, UK) on this article.

Dr Imogen Bell has received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council for research mentioned in this article.

Neil Thomas has received funding from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care, the Australian Government Department of Veterans’ Affairs and the Wellcome Trust and is a committee member with the Australian Psychological Society.

Dr Rachel Brand has received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council for research mentioned in this article and is a committee member with the Australian Psychological Society.

Leila Jameel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Hearing voices is common and can be distressing. Virtual reality might help us meet and ‘treat’ them – https://theconversation.com/hearing-voices-is-common-and-can-be-distressing-virtual-reality-might-help-us-meet-and-treat-them-230972

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dylan McConnell, Senior Research Associate, Renewable Energy & Energy Systems Analyst, UNSW Sydney

Coal will no longer be burned for power in Australia within 14 years. To replace it will require faster deployment of solar and wind, storage, new transmission lines and some firming gas capacity.

That’s a very brief summary of a large and influential document – the Integrated System Plan issued by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) every two years.

The latest version of this plan was issued today. Think of it as a roadmap, showing what we need to build and where to be able to wean ourselves off burning fossil fuels for electricity.

It shows the lowest cost way to give us electricity in the future is renewable energy, connected with transmission and distribution, firmed with storage and using gas-powered generation as farmers might use a diesel generator – as a backup plan.

What about nuclear, given Peter Dutton’s pledge to build seven reactors? The plan doesn’t consider it, because nuclear power is currently not legal. But an accompanying AEMO fact sheet notes CSIRO’s GenCost report found nuclear generation to be a lot more expensive than other options:

In fact, it is one of the most expensive ways to generate electricity according to GenCost [and] the time it would take to design and build nuclear generation would be too slow to replace retiring coal fired generation.

What is this plan for?

Australia’s main grid connects eastern and southern states, where most of us live. Historically, it was built to connect cheap but polluting coal plants to large cities.

As coal plants retire, we need a different grid so we can draw renewable power from many different locations and use storage as backup.

That’s what this plan is intended to do. To create it, AEMO relies on detailed modelling and consultation across the energy sector. This brings it to what the operator calls an “optimal development path” – energy speak for the cheapest and most effective mix of electricity generation, storage and transmission, which meets our reliability and security needs while supporting emission cutting policies in the long-term interests of consumers.

One of the most important roles for the plan is to show where we need new electrical infrastructure – especially transmission lines.

The key findings of the final plan have not materially changed from the draft. But there are some changes worth noting.

Emissions reductions to the fore

In November last year, emissions reductions were formally embedded as an objective in our national electricity laws.

In March this year, the market commission issued guidelines on how to apply these changes to the objectives in various processes, including the Integrated System Plan.

There are important figures in this guidance, namely the value of emissions reduction, set at A$70 per tonne today to $420 per tonne by 2050. This is not a direct carbon price. It lets us assess the value of different grid pathways in terms of cutting emissions.

AEMO calculated an extra $3.3 billion in benefits realised in the optimal development path when including this value. Including this benefit is expected to help get some transmission projects get approval.

More storage, delayed transmission

New transmission projects have also proved controversial and difficult to develop, while the New England renewable energy zone in NSW has hit substantial delays. AEMO’s draft plan envisaged this important solar and wind rich region would be reach full capacity by 2028. This has blown out to 2033.

The good news? In the seven months since the draft came out, a huge amount of new storage has begun to arrive. Some 3,700 megawatts of storage capacity (10.8 gigawatt hours worth of energy) have progressed to the point it can be included in the plan.

There are signs the renewable roll-out has slowed down, due to grid congestion, approvals and the need for more transmission lines. Things are still ticking along – since the draft plan was put out for consultation in December last year, another 490 megawatts of large-scale generation has entered the grid. This does need to speed up: the plan envisages 6,000 megawatts of renewable capacity, including rooftop solar, arriving yearly.

What does it say about nuclear power?

Nothing at all. The Integrated System Plan only models technologies legal in Australia, such as black coal with carbon capture and storage. Nuclear power was banned by the Howard Coalition government in the late 1990s.

The AEMO fact sheet makes mention of nuclear to point out that it is a very expensive form of energy and would not arrive in time to replace retiring coal plants. We would need something else in the interim.

The Coalition has indicated it would support new gas-fired to ensure the electricity grid remained reliable until nuclear plants were online.

What about ‘renewable droughts’?

To smooth out the peaks and troughs of renewable generation, we will need different firming technologies. These include storage such as batteries and pumped hydro, as well as traditional hydro, gas and other fuelled generation. Firming help manage changes in supply and demand and ensure a reliable system. Demand response – where users are rewarded to use less during peak periods – can also help ensure reliability.

AEMO’s report argues “flexible gas” generation will have to provide back-up supply during periods of what Germans call “dunkelflaute” – long periods of dark and still days during mid-winter, when solar and wind generation go missing. Flexible gas is expected to play a role for extreme peak demand, particularly in winter.

But this capacity is expected to be very rarely used. Think of “flexible gas” as you would a diesel generator – you’ve got it as a backup if needed. In the near future, a generator like this may generate just 5% of its annual potential. The emissions intensity of a grid with so little gas generation will be tiny.

Does this mean we’ll never be able to entirely banish fossil fuels? Not necessarily. Greener alternatives, such as green hydrogen or methanol, might mean we can take the last step away from burning fossil fuels for power.

Read more:
Clean energy slump – why Australia’s renewables revolution is behind schedule, and how to fix it

Dylan McConnell’s current position is supported by the ‘Race for 2030’ Cooperative Research Centre.

– ref. Coal-free in 14 years as renewables rush in: new blueprint shows how to green the grid – without nuclear – https://theconversation.com/coal-free-in-14-years-as-renewables-rush-in-new-blueprint-shows-how-to-green-the-grid-without-nuclear-232985

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Kidson, Senior Lecturer in Educational Leadership, Australian Catholic University

New South Wales private school teachers are pushing for a pay rise with the help of their union.

One of the main arguments is their pay should be higher than that of public and Catholic school teachers, to reflect a “traditional premium” for working in the private (or independent) sector.

This follows a 2023 state government-funded pay rise to teachers at public schools in NSW. This raised starting salaries from A$75,791 to $85,000 and the top salaries from $113,042 to $122,100. Private school teachers are now asking for 5–7% above their public colleagues.

What’s behind the idea that private school teachers earn more?

How is private school teachers’ pay decided?

Before the 1960s, there were very few independent schools in Australia. Most were governed by church groups and set their own fees, the bulk of which went to staff salaries. Salaries were often higher than in government schools, but there were other complicating factors.

Many of these schools had boarding facilities, so meals and accommodation (for some staff) formed part of their employment benefits. Staff were also required to run extensive co-curricular activities (such as sport or music). But this was often seen to be compensated by longer holidays.

Then, in the 1970s and ‘80s, there was an explosion in the number of low-fee independent schools. This meant there was a huge variety of arrangements for teachers’ pay. Most of the newer schools did not require weekend commitments for teachers, even though many still paid higher than government schools. But this was not always the case, depending on the resources of the school.

When Work Choices (a new workplace relations system) came in under the Howard government in 2005, salaries for a range of private school teachers were streamlined in the form of “multi-enterprise agreements”. In NSW, this brought many (though not all) independent schools into a common agreement on salaries through the Association of Independent Schools. However, some schools have continued to set their own pay.

Why is the pay different?

Advocates for independent schools, which include principals and union leaders, argue their teachers should be paid more because of the extra demands of their jobs.

As a condition of employment, they are expected to contribute to the wider cultural life of the school beyond face-to-face teaching. This can include co-curricular activities such as coaching a sport team, before- or after-school music groups, theatre productions, community service activities and comprehensive pastoral care programs.

Attendance is expected at out-of-hours events such as parent/caregiver information evenings, open days, and for some faith-based schools, religious services. There’s often an expectation of frequent communication with parents/caregivers. Some of these expectations are similarly required of teachers in government and Catholic system schools. But those advocating for these salary increases maintain that independent school expectations are greater.

Teachers in NSW government schools have specified hours of face-to-face teaching. There are no similar provisions for independent school teachers, so this is up to individual schools.

It’s not just about pay

The union representing NSW independent school teachers is not just calling for a pay rise. It also wants to see improvements to teachers’ workloads, which is also an issue for government school teachers.

The Independent Education Union wants clear standards around teaching hours, meetings, extra classes and weekend activities. It also wants teachers to have the “right to disconnect” (or refuse work contact after work hours), which some schools are trying to oppose.

What does this mean for the teacher shortage?

Australia is in the grip of a nationwide teacher shortage.

So it is possible increasing salaries for private school teachers could see some teachers leave their public or low-fee Catholic schools. This is particularly so if the new school does not involve huge amounts of additional travel and/or extra hours.

But given many private school teaching salaries come with extra time commitments, teachers would be weighing up the pros and cons of a move.

Paul Kidson spent more than eleven years as principal of independent schools in NSW.

– ref. Why are private school teachers paid more than their public colleagues? – https://theconversation.com/why-are-private-school-teachers-paid-more-than-their-public-colleagues-233209

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sam Whiting, Lecturer – Creative Industries, University of South Australia

On June 12, Sydney musician and software engineer Harrison Khannah launched Triple J Watchdog, a website dedicated to aggregating and analysing the music played on Australia’s national youth broadcaster Triple J.

The site currently displays data from March 31 onward while Harrison continues work on backdating it to the beginning of this year. The site displays a range of Triple J metrics, including:

• top artist of the week
• top song of the week
• a breakdown of artists/bands played by country of origin
• a breakdown of artists’ pronouns (using data from Make Music Equal)
• the top 15 tracks and top 15 artists played
• the average popularity of artists played
• the average Spotify follower count of artists played (currently 3,242,692)
• the top ten genres played (cross-referenced and defined against Spotify categories)
• and the most played genre by hour for every hour across the day (based on data from Roy Morgan).

At a glance, the data aren’t surprising. Triple J plays more Australian artists/bands than from anywhere else, as well as more he/him artists (although the disparity isn’t particularly egregious). The station’s most played genre is “Australian indie”.

Close scrutiny, however, reveals a different story.

During the week of June 10–16, British pop star Charli XCX was Triple J’s most played artist. This was mainly due to her recent release, BRAT, being given the coveted feature album slot. Other 2024 feature albums have included Beyonce and Billie Eilish. Eilish also features as the second-most played artist since March.

Why is a taxpayer-funded public broadcaster that has historically been dedicated to breaking emerging local talent providing significant airtime to an artist whose biggest hit is widely recognised as a KFC jingle?

The breakdown of most played genres by hour further reveals pop is consistently played during drive time, when the station has its largest average daily share of listeners.

Since Triple J has no commercial imperative, it can theoretically program whatever it wants during these peak periods. Why, then, does it consistently play commercially oriented tracks when most people are tuning in?

Critiquing Triple J: a national pastime

Australia’s music industries have spent decades decrying the national youth radio network for being too commercial. Several academics have also questioned the station’s significance and relevance, including Ben Eltham in his notable 2009 essay The Curious Significance of Triple J.

Despite being published 15 years ago, many of the arguments presented in Eltham’s piece remain relevant today: Triple J is more concerned with its own brand than with enhancing Australian culture and community.

The Triple J network retains substantial influence over Australia’s music market and the capacity for local artists to gain an audience. This is true despite declining ratings among its target demographic of 18–24-year-olds.

Its national reach means it also has an outsized impact on touring networks and festival lineups. This somewhat explains why many emerging and even established artists fear reprisal, should they speak out against it.

Triple J Watchdog isn’t the first time the station’s programming data have been publicly listed. J Play, a service run by The Brag Media, served this niche for many years until its cancellation in 2019. However, J Play was still very much a part of the music industry’s establishment, rather than a completely independent scrutineer.

Triple J Watchdog fills an important resource gap by providing transparent insights into the station’s programming data.

What was Triple J made for?

There’s a strong argument that Triple J’s programming of commercially lucrative artists comes down to a desire to drive people to the station.

In Eltham’s 2009 piece this was framed as a part of its model, wherein the station functions as a stepping stone in a chain of discoverability that begins with commercial bops and ends with community radio.

While this may have been true in 2009, the sector has shifted substantially. In the era of digital streaming and algorithmically-driven recommendation systems, discoverability has changed. Yet, Triple J’s influence on festival lineups and the national touring network remains significant. This influence becomes doubly important as opportunities for local artists continue to shrink due to festival cancellations.

As a public service untethered from commercial interests, Triple J has the potential to expand the horizons of Australian music. It may be easy to frame this perspective as snobby or elitist – especially when concerns are focused purely on issues of genre – but the counterargument serves the literal elites: the millionaires (and increasingly billionaires) who reign atop the music industries pyramid.

Public resources are meant to enhance our democracy and, in the case of popular music, our sense of belonging, community and cultural identity. With recent research suggesting the average Australian artist makes about A$23,200 from their art, we must continue to pay attention to which voices are given a platform and which are not.

Read more:
The arts are being sidelined in the cost of living crisis. It’s time we stopped framing them as a luxury

Sam Whiting receives funding from Creative Australia and the Australasian Performing Right Association.

– ref. Australia’s music artists are in dire straits – yet taxpayer-funded Triple J won’t shake its commercial flavour – https://theconversation.com/australias-music-artists-are-in-dire-straits-yet-taxpayer-funded-triple-j-wont-shake-its-commercial-flavour-233093

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

Right now things feel awful.

Tuesday’s Westpac Melbourne Institute survey shows three times as many Australians say their finances have worsened than say they’ve got better, and twice as many think the economy is getting worse as think it is getting better.

The national accounts show real income per Australian (adjusted for inflation) has been sliding for a year.

We are buying less per person online and in shops than at any time in the past two and a half years.

And Commonwealth Bank transaction data shows even our spending on essentials is failing to keep pace, except for older (mostly unmortgaged) Australians who are actually spending more on essentials than they were, as well as more on luxuries.

But – and I am sure you’ll find this hard to believe – things are nowhere near as bad right now, in the middle of 2024, as they were expected to be.

Nowhere near as bad as predicted

A year ago, at the start of the financial year that’s about to end, the panel of expert forecasters assembled by The Conversation expected inflation and interest rates to be much higher than they are today.

Inflation was going to be 3.9%, not the present 3.6% and headed down, and the Reserve Bank’s cash rate was going to climb two times in the second half of 2023 from 4.1% to 4.5%. Instead it climbed once, to 4.35%, and hasn’t climbed since.

That’s something worth remembering when people tell you inflation is stubbornly high. It isn’t as stubbornly high as it was expected to be.

And a recession looks much less likely.

Back in mid-2023, when asked about the probability of a recession in the next two years, the expert panel’s average answer was 42%.

Asked when that recession was most likely to start, the panel’s average answer was December 2023.

So worried was the government over Christmas that it asked the treasury to come up with extra cost of living relief. What the treasury produced was a reworking of the Stage 3 cuts due to start in July.

The rejig doubled the tax cut set to go to Australians on average earnings and halved the tax cut set to go to Australians on more than A$200,000.

By the time The Conversation’s panel next assembled to examine the probability of a recession, in February, it had cut the likelihood to 20%, which is about the lowest average probability a recession ever gets in these sorts of surveys.

What’s gone right

What’s gone right is that inflation has proved easier to subdue than expected, and not only inflation in the price of goods, many of which are made overseas. Inflation in the price of services has been falling the entire financial year.

That good news has allowed the Reserve Bank to hold off on increasing interest rates all year. And it’s partly because of us.

Businesses attending the bank’s liaison meetings have told it they are “intensifying their focus on containing costs as they find it harder to increase prices”.

That’s because we are less likely to put up with higher prices. We have become “budget conscious” making it more difficult for firms to pass on cost increases.

So instead, firms are cutting costs. Examples include

reviewing staffing structures, converting contractors or casuals to permanent staff, changing working or opening hours, and considering offshoring.

And they are becoming less likely to offer pay rises, planning for slower wage growth in the year ahead.

All of this is bearing down on inflation.

Australia’s relatively-new monthly consumer price index is likely to show an increase when it is released on Wednesday. The annual rate of inflation might climb from 3.6% in April to 3.8% or even 4% in May.

Those are the headline AMP and Westpac forecasts. But they hide what the AMP and Westpac expect to happen beneath the surface.

The AMP expects prices to fall in the month of May, by 0.2%. Westpac expects no change, meaning a monthly inflation rate of zero.

The annual inflation rate is expected to climb because prices fell a year earlier in May 2023, not because they climbed in May 2024.

Lower inflation, and a tax cut

If the inflation rate does keep sinking when the official quarterly figures are released next month, it’ll be doubly good news for stretched households. It’ll mean slower price rises, and probably an end to talk of further interest rate rises.

Along with the Stage 3 tax cuts legislated by then treasurer Scott Morrison way back in 2018 and due to hit pay packets in an amended form next week, they are set to make us feel better about the future; perhaps better than we’ve felt in years.

The long-delayed tax cuts, which turn out to be timely in a way Morrison couldn’t have antipated, are worth about $2,200 per year for the average household according to calculations being circulated by Treasurer Jim Chalmers.

That’s $84 per fortnight, after tax. For a couple with two children, it’s almost $4,000, which is $150 per fortnight.

As bleak as it was, this month’s consumer survey recorded a slight uptick in confidence, of 1.7%.

On Monday The Conversation will publish the experts’ forecasts for the financial year that’s about to begin. It’s a fair bet they’ll be brighter than those for the financial year about to end.

Peter Martin is Economics Editor of The Conversation.

– ref. The good news is the Australian economy is about to turn up. Here’s why – https://theconversation.com/the-good-news-is-the-australian-economy-is-about-to-turn-up-heres-why-233141