Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Kandulu, Research Fellow, College of Business, Government and Law, Flinders University

Climate change and biodiversity loss are mounting threats to Australia’s water security. So ee often hear calls for more dams. But is that the answer?

Our recent research reveals large dam projects are costly gambles with public money. They often fail to deliver promised economic benefits. They also have major environmental, financial and social impacts.

In New South Wales, some members of the Lower Lachlan River community were concerned about plans to expand Wyangala Dam. They first asked us in 2020 to investigate its full costs and benefits, with findings presented at a local workshop in 2022.

The first WaterNSW estimate of capital and operating costs was A$620 million in 2018. Within a few years, it had soared to as much as $2.1 billion. In 2023, the project was scrapped because it wasn’t economically viable.

Similar concerns surround other projects overseas and in Australia, including Hells Gate Dam in Queensland, and Dungowan Dam and Snowy Hydro 2.0 in NSW.

To avoid repeating costly mistakes and mismanaging taxpayers’ money, we need a smarter approach to major water projects. This includes independent assessments and greater transparency, with business cases made public and decision-making open to scrutiny. And planning for climate change must become a priority.

Lessons from past mistakes

Inadequate economic assessments of big dam projects are a global problem. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and India’s Subansiri Lower Hydroelectric Project promised big, but had rising price tags and devastating impacts on ecosystems.

In Australia and worldwide, big dam cost overruns can be up to 825%. The average overrun is 120%. This casts serious doubt on such projects’ financial and social viability. Public costs for private gains are a major concern.

Our study reviewed the original business case for the Wyangala Dam expansion. The original study had concluded there would be net social benefits and gave the project the green light.

Our review found the business case was seriously flawed. It overestimated benefits and grossly underestimated physical capital and environmental costs.

Estimated building costs blew out by 239%. If the project had gone ahead, the costs would undoubtedly have increased.

On top of this, assessments of impacts on rivers and wetlands were poor and superficial. They greatly undervalued the environmental effects of expanding the dam, particularly on downstream wetlands.

On the other side of the equation, its benefits were overblown, particularly for water security and agriculture.

Local voices believed many of their concerns had been ignored. There were deep concerns that flood-dependent farmers downstream might lose some of their livelihoods. Indigenous communities were worried about their cultural sites being destroyed.

Our analysis provided a more rigorous assessment of benefits and costs of the Wyangala Dam expansion.

We found total project costs were underestimated by at least 116%. The benefits were inflated by 56%. This meant the true impacts on the environment, agriculture and local communities were misrepresented.

Rethinking Australia’s water future

Our analysis provides a salutary lesson on why we need to rethink water security. Instead of sinking billions into dams, we should find smart and sustainable ways to manage our water.

The fixation on building and expanding dams means innovative alternatives are often ignored. These other options include recycling water, managing demand and carefully recharging aquifers (using aquifers as underground dams).

The National Water Grid Fund exemplifies the misguided “build more dams” mindset. Its portfolio of 61 large water projects has a total capital cost estimate of up to $10 billion.

Despite this massive investment, only 23 of these projects have publicly available business cases. It leaves more than $1.7 billion in committed funding shrouded in secrecy.

This lack of transparency is alarming, given the history of cost overruns and inadequate assessment of environmental damage. It points to the urgent need to reassess our approach to water security. The public has a right to know that their governments are spending wisely.

To avoid repeating costly mistakes and mismanaging taxpayers’ money, we need a smarter approach. Independent business cases should be mandated for all major water projects.

We also need a strong public sector capable of transparent evaluation. Promised new National Environmental Standards as part of reforms to environmental protection laws are likely to require rigorous scrutiny too. We must embrace transparency by opening decision-making to public scrutiny and diverse perspectives, including local voices and Indigenous stakeholders, from the start.

Finally, infrastructure planning must account for long-term climate impacts on water availability. Planning for climate change is vital.

As projects such as the proposed Wyangala Dam expansion demonstrate, Australia can no longer afford to gamble its water future on outdated, costly and environmentally destructive solutions. It’s time to end the wasteful spending.

Instead, we need to channel our efforts into truly effective, sustainable and transparent water management. Strategies must give priority to community needs, First Nations’ water rights, environmental protection and long-term climate resilience.

John Kandulu is a recipient of funding from various sources, such as state and Commonwealth governments, as well as non-profit organisations. His affiliations include the Centre for Social Impact at Flinders University and the Environment Institute at the University of Adelaide.

Richard Kingsford receives funding from a range of organisations, including the Australian Research Council, state and Commonwealth governments, non-government organisations, including World Wide Fund for Nature and Australian Conservation Foundation. He is a member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists and a councillor on the Biodiversity Council.

Sarah Ann Wheeler receives funding from a range of organisations, including the Australian Research Council, state and Commonwealth governments and non-government organisations.

– ref. Why building more big dams is a costly gamble for our future water security and the environment – https://theconversation.com/why-building-more-big-dams-is-a-costly-gamble-for-our-future-water-security-and-the-environment-239106

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Frederik Juliaan Vervaet, Associate Professor of Ancient History, The University of Melbourne

The year is 50 BC. Gaul is entirely occupied by the Romans. Well, not entirely. One small village of indomitable Gauls still holds out against the invaders.

So begins the Asterix comic series, which positions Julius Caesar as the power-lusting dictator of the mighty Roman Empire who conquered all of Gaul. All except, of course, for one heroic village, where Asterix, Obelix and Dogmatix are among the Gauls (or Gaul dogs) frustrating Rome’s hapless legions.

Well, that’s the comic book version.

But who really were the Gauls? And why were they such a problem for Rome?

The Gauls are the most famous group of Celtic peoples who occupied most of the lands west of the Rhine, thus causing this area to be known in antiquity as Gaul.

They sported long blonde or reddish dreadlocks (often washing their hair in lime-water and pulling it back to the nape of the neck), handlebar moustaches on the men, colourful shirts and striped coats. The ethnonym Galli is believed to derive from a Celtic root gal- meaning “power” or “ability”, and has been linked to the Irish word gal, meaning “bravery” or “courage”.

Fearsome warriors

From the fifth to third centuries BCE, the Celtic tribes of central Europe were among the continent’s most fearsome warriors.

From their heartlands around what is now the Czech Republic (Bohemia derives its name from the powerful Boii Gallic tribe), they conquered the British Isles, all of France and Belgium (Gaul proper) and parts of Spain. They also conquered the fertile alluvial plains of what became known to Romans as Cisalpine Gaul, meaning “Gaul this side of the Alps”.

The Gauls even conquered lands as far afield as in present-day Turkey. The descendants from these once mighty peoples still live in Ireland (Gaelic comes from the word Gaul), Wales and Brittany.

The Gauls had a very warlike reputation. They produced tall and muscular warriors who often wore helmets that, according to the Greek historian Diodorus Siculus, sometimes had horns attached or “images of the fore-parts of birds or four-footed animals”. He also wrote that:

The women of the Gauls are not only like the men in their great stature but they are a match for them in courage as well.

Gauls fought with long broad-swords, barbed spears, and chariots drawn by two horses. They fastened the severed heads of their enemies about the necks of their horses.

Possessing huge quantities of alluvial gold, Gallic nobles wore heavy necklaces (known as “torcs”) of solid gold and consumed untold amounts of imported wine, fabulously enriching Italian merchants.

Their acts of bravery were immortalised by lyric poets called bards, and they put great stock in their shamans, called druids, who also presided over regular human sacrifices.

In 387 BCE, Gallic raiders from Cisalpine Gaul sacked Rome. They only failed to take the Capitol because of a hostile incursion into their own homelands, forcing them to break camp and return – not before, however, exacting a crippling price in gold from the profoundly humiliated Romans.

The Romans were so impressed with Gallic military kit they resorted to wholesale plagiarism. The iconic armour of Roman republican legionaries was largely of Celtic origin.

Rome rallies against the Gauls

In 295 BCE, the Senones (a Gallic tribe) inhabiting the Adriatic coastline south of Cisalpine Gaul were part of an alliance soundly defeated by the Roman Republic in the battle of Sentinum.

This represented a watershed moment on the road to Roman hegemony in the Italian peninsula.

In 232, against the backdrop of renewed hostilities with the Cisalpine Gauls, leading Roman politician Gaius Flaminius passed legislation redistributing land won from the Senones (following their final defeat in 283) among Romans from the lower property classes.

To ease Roman colonisation, the same Flaminius in 220 commissioned the construction of the Via Flaminia, a paved speedway from Rome all the way to Rimini, at the doorstep of Cisalpine Gaul.

Fearing the same fate as the Senones, the Cisalpine Gauls united against Rome, aided by some Transalpine Gauls.

By 225, this alliance became strong enough to invade peninsular Italy, ravage Tuscany, and threaten Rome itself.

This famously triggered the Romans to muster all Roman and Italian manpower at their disposal (about 800,000 draftable men, according to ancient the historian Pliny).

Being now superior in every respect, the Romans and their Italian allies decisively defeated the Cisalpine Gauls in 223 and 222. The Roman general Marcus Claudius Marcellus even managed to kill a Gallic king in single combat.

The vanquished Cisalpine Gauls then joined the feared Carthaginian general Hannibal, who at the time posed a great risk to Rome and defeated its forces in many battles. They joined Hannibal en masse after he crossed the Alps to invade Italy in 218.

But Hannibal failed to vanquish Rome and was later defeated. The Roman conquest of Cisalpine Gaul continued after Roman forces defeated Hannibal’s brother Hasdrubal at the Metaurus River in 207.

To secure their rich holdings in Cisalpine Gaul and the land corridor to their Spanish provinces, the Romans subsequently conquered first Liguria and next southern Gaul, incorporated as the Province of Transalpine Gaul. The area was so thoroughly colonised it is still known today as La Provence (“the province”).

Caesar’s self-interested war on the Gauls

Julius Caesar, eager to amass glory and wealth, subjugated all of Gaul in less than a decade (from 58 to 50 BCE).

He sold this outright aggression to the Senate and people in Rome as a war waged in defence of tribes allied with Rome, a necessary pre-emptive strike of sorts.

In addition to enslaving perhaps up to one million Gauls, Caesar proudly claimed to have killed well over another million, a staggering casualty rate considered by Pliny the Elder “a prodigious even if unavoidable wrong inflicted on the human race”.

Caesar got away with mass murder because he shamelessly played into lingering feelings of metus Gallicus, or “Gallic fear”.

The Roman fear of Gauls was heightened by the so-called Cimbric War that took place in earlier years, when a formidable confederacy of Germanic and Gallic tribes inflicted a series of costly defeats upon Rome, threatening Italy itself.

But Rome would triumph in the end. Under the leadership of Gaius Marius, the Romans destroyed these tribes in 102/101 BCE in Transalpine and Cisalpine Gaul.

Turned into a Roman province in final stages of this war, Cisalpine Gaul eventually became so heavily Romanised it was incorporated into Roman Italy proper in 42 BCE.

Frederik Juliaan Vervaet receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. You’ve heard of Asterix and Obelix, but who really were the Gauls? And why were they such a problem for Rome? – https://theconversation.com/youve-heard-of-asterix-and-obelix-but-who-really-were-the-gauls-and-why-were-they-such-a-problem-for-rome-233447

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Deryn Lee Thompson, Eczema and Allergy Nurse; Lecturer, University of South Australia

People often believe they are allergic to house dust. But of the 20% of Australians suffereing with allergies, a number are are actually allergic to microscopic house dust mites.

House dust mites belong to the same family as spiders and ticks. They measure just 0.2-0.3 mm, with 50 fitting on a single pinhead. They live for 65–100 days, and females lay 60–100 eggs in their life.

House dust mites love temperate climates and humidity. They feed off the skin cells we and animals shed, as well as mould, which they digest using special enzymes. These enzymes are excreted in their poo about 20 times a day. They also shed fragments of their exoskeletons.

All these fragments trigger allergies in people with this type of allergic rhinitis (which is also known as hay fever)

What are the symptoms?

When people with house dust mite allergy inhale the allergens, they penetrate the mucous membranes of the airways and eyes. Their body recognises the allergens as a threat, releasing chemicals including one called histamine.

This causes symptoms including a runny nose, an itchy nose, eyes and throat, sneezing, coughing and a feeling of mucus at the back of your throat (known as a post-nasal drip).

People with this type of allergy usually mouth breath, snore, rub their nose constantly (creating a nasal crease called the “dust mite salute”) and have dark shadows under their eyes.

House dust mite allergy can also cause poor sleep, constant tiredness, reduced concentration at work or school and lower quality of life.

For people with eczema, their damaged skin barrier can allow house dust mite proteins in. This prompts immune cells in the skin to release chemicals which make already flared skin become redder, sorer and itchier, especially in children.

Symptoms of house dust mite allergy occur year round, and are often worse after going to bed and when waking in the morning. But people with house dust mite allergy and pollen allergies find their year-round symptoms worsen in spring.

How is it diagnosed?

House dust mite allergy symptoms often build up over months, or even years before people seek help. But an accurate diagnosis means you can not only access the right treatment – it’s also vital for minimising exposure.

Doctor and nurse practitioners can order a blood test to check for house dust mite allergy.

Alternatively, health care providers with specialised allergy training can perform skin prick tests. This involves placing drops of the allergens on the arm, along with a positive and negative “control”. After 15 minutes, those who test positive will have developed a mosquito bite-like mark.

How is it treated?

Medication options include one or a combination of:

• daily non-sedating antihistamines
• a steroid nasal spray
• allergy eye drops.

Your health care professional will work with you to develop a rhinitis (hay fever) medical management plan to reduce your symptoms. If you’re using a nasal spray, your health provider will show you how to use it, as people often use it incorrectly.

If you also have asthma or eczema which is worsened by dust mites, your health provider will adapt your asthma action plan or eczema care plan accordingly.

If you experience severe symptoms, a longer-term option is immunotherapy. This aims to gradually turn off your immune system’s ability to recognise house dust mites as a harmful allergen.

Immunotherapy involves taking either a daily sublingual tablet, under the tongue, or a series of injections. Injections require monthly attendances over three years, after the initial weekly build-up phase.

These are effective, but are costly (as well as time-consuming). So it’s important to weigh up the potential benefits and downsides with your health-care provider.

How can you minimise house dust mites?

There are also important allergy minimisation measures you can take to reduce allergens in your home.

Each week, wash your bedding and pyjamas in hot water (over 60°C). This removes house dust mite eggs and debris.

Opt for doonas, covers or quilts that can be washed in hot water above 60°C. Alternatively, low-cost waterproof or leak proof covers can keep house dust mites out.

If you can, favour blinds and wood floors over curtains and carpet. Dust blinds and surfaces with a damp cloth each week and vacuum while wearing a mask, or have someone else do it, as house dust mites can become airborne during cleaning.

But beware of costly products with big marketing budgets and little evidence to support their use. A new mattress, for example, will always be house dust mite-free. But once slept on, the house dust mite life cycle can start.

Mattress protectors and toppers commonly claim to be “hypoallergenic”, “anti-allergy” or “allergy free”. But their pore sizes are not small enough to keep house dust mites and their poo out, or shed skin going through.

Sprays claiming to kill mites require so much spray to penetrate the product that it’s likely to become wet, may smell like the spray and, unless dried properly, may grow mould.

Finally, claims that expensive vacuum cleaners can extract all the
house dust mites are unsubstantiated.

For more information, visit healthdirect.gov.au or the Australian Society of Clinical Immunology and Allergy.

Deryn Lee Thompson is affiliated Loreal, Ego Pharmaceuticals and Quality Use of Medicines Alliance having received honorariums for educational talks or advisory work. Deryn has also undertaken voluntary work with Eczema Support Australia

– ref. What are house dust mites and how do I know if I’m allergic to them? – https://theconversation.com/what-are-house-dust-mites-and-how-do-i-know-if-im-allergic-to-them-240918

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Nelson, Associate Professor of Soil Science, James Cook University

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is naturally removed from the air when it reacts with certain types of rock. We can accelerate this process by crushing suitable rocks and spreading them over agricultural fields. This simple method, known as “enhanced rock weathering”, could vastly increase the rate of CO₂ removal from the atmosphere.

Modelling studies suggest billions of tonnes of CO₂ might be removed annually if crushed rocks were applied to croplands globally. With current energy-related emissions at 37 billion tonnes a year, this means enhanced weathering could contribute in a big way to reaching net zero emissions. A new industry is rapidly emerging to do just that.

But before everyone gets too carried away, it’s crucial to be able to measure how much CO₂ is captured. Both industry and governments will need accurate measurements for effective policy, regulation and reporting.

In our new research, we measured CO₂ capture in a tropical agricultural soil. We found the CO₂ capture rate was low in this soil, despite significant weathering. This means soil type needs to be carefully considered when estimating CO₂ capture rate.

What is rock weathering?

Rock rich in calcium and/or magnesium, such as basalt, can be crushed and spread over the soil to capture CO₂. The rock can be mined for this purpose or obtained as a byproduct from other mines or from gravel making.

In soil, the CO₂ dissolves to form carbonic acid, which is what makes drinks fizzy. This acid can react with the rocks, converting CO₂ into bicarbonate, which traps the carbon in solution.

Bicarbonate can be further converted in the soil and stored as solid carbonate (limestone). Or it can leach into groundwater, then rivers to the sea, where it is stored long-term as dissolved bicarbonate or as carbonate rock.

Rock weathering happens naturally on geological time scales. But for the technology to work in tackling climate change, we need to speed it up.

Existing mining equipment can be used to grind the rock, while agricultural spreaders typically used to distribute lime can spread the crushed rock over the land.

Adding crushed rock in this way can improve soil health and crop production because it neutralises soil acidity, supplies nutrients such as magnesium, calcium and phosphorus, and can help increase soil organic content.

How much CO₂ is captured?

In the Midwest United States, potential CO₂ removal rates of up to 2.6 tonnes of CO₂ per hectare per year have been estimated over a four-year period. This was based on applying 50 tonnes of finely crushed basalt per hectare every year. That rate is close to the highest natural rate reported globally, in Java, Indonesia (2.8 tonnes of CO₂ per hectare per year).

But when we applied crushed basalt to a sugarcane field in Australia, over five years at the same rate, we had very different results. Our measurements of bicarbonate and carbonate in soil and water showed very low rates of CO₂ removal.

Overall, the results from laboratory and field trials vary greatly from one study to the next. CO₂ removal estimates range from 0.02 to more than 10 tonnes of CO₂ per hectare. This variation could be due to the nature of the crushed rock and the way it was applied, the climate, soil type, cropping system and the duration of the trial. The figure also depends on the measurement method used.

Are we measuring it right?

We have now shown there can be a large gap between directly measured carbon capture and the amount estimated in other ways. Direct measurement of CO₂ removal through conversion to bicarbonate and carbonate in soil and water can be difficult and costly. So far, this is mainly done in research trials, as we did in our studies.

Other techniques are being developed to estimate in-field CO₂ removal in a way that is easier for monitoring, reporting and verifying large-scale projects. These estimates use a combination of modelling and estimates of weathering rate.

We have shown in a glasshouse study that the discrepancy between measured and estimated CO₂ capture varies a lot between soils. We found this discrepancy is largely driven by soil acidity.

In our recent field trial in an acidic soil, weathering was mostly due to acids that are stronger than carbonic acid. The added rock preferentially reacts with these stronger acids rather than carbonic acid, so rock weathering takes place, but without capturing much CO₂.

Great potential

It’s becoming increasingly clear greenhouse gases will have to be removed from the atmosphere if we are to avoid dangerous climate change. Carbon emissions must be cut, but these cuts won’t be deep enough to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. So carbon removals will need to equal remaining emissions.

Enhanced rock weathering has great potential for CO₂ removal, but we don’t yet have robust ways of measuring its effectiveness. There is a need to better understand the reactions in soil that affect CO₂ removal across different soil types and under different management. We may also need to continue directly measuring carbon capture until we have confidence in more convenient estimates.

Paul Nelson receives research funding from the Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation, Sugar Research Australia, UNDO Carbon, Consolidated Pastoral Company and the Australian Government.

Wolfram Buss does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Spreading crushed rock over farmland can remove CO₂ from the atmosphere if we do it right – https://theconversation.com/spreading-crushed-rock-over-farmland-can-remove-co-from-the-atmosphere-if-we-do-it-right-240303

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Victoria Souliman, Lecturer, French and Francophone Studies, University of Sydney

René Magritte is renowned for his humorous yet enigmatic art, foremost of which is the iconic bowler-hatted man. But despite his significant contribution to Surrealism – and the fame of his works – the evolution of his artistic practice isn’t widely known.

The Art Gallery of New South Wales’ Magritte exhibit marks the first major exhibition of the artist’s work in Australia, opening almost exactly 100 years after André Breton published the first Surrealist Manifesto in 1924.

The exhibition unveils four decades of Magritte’s unique artistic vision, with more than 100 works from collections across Australia, Belgium, Japan and the United States.

The man beyond the bowler hat

Magritte was born in 1898 in Lessines, Belgium. He developed a strong passion for painting early on. At just 16, he enrolled in the Académie des Beaux-Arts in Brussels, where he received traditional artistic training. He also worked as a graphic designer in his early career to support himself financially, creating various advertisements for magazine covers and posters.

Magritte was driven to explore and enhance his artistic practice beyond the Belgian art scene’s conservative aesthetics and limited opportunities for experimentation.

He found inspiration in magazines, journals and exhibition catalogues depicting avant-garde works. His earliest known self-portrait exemplifies his early influence by Cubism. It is a double-sided work, with one side featuring a painted portrait of Georgette Berger (who later became Magritte’s wife) playing the piano.

However, it was Magritte’s encounter with surrealist artworks (particularly Italian artist Giorgio De Chirico’s Le Chant d’amour, with its dreamlike atmosphere) which greatly impacted his practice.

From the mid-1920s, Magritte began to develop personal and poetic images featuring familiar objects rendered realistically yet set in unexpected combinations. He also introduced motifs that would appear throughout his career, such as curtains, toys, clouds and boulders. His first solo exhibition at the Galerie Le Centaure in Brussels signalled his allegiance to Surrealism.

Art as a process of reasoning

The Magritte exhibition foregrounds the artist’s work in the context of Belgian Surrealism, emphasising how he was influenced by fellow writers, philosophers and artists in Brussels.

Among these figures was the poet Paul Nougé, the founding figure of Belgian Surrealism in 1926. Nougé introduced a more scientific and rationalist perspective to the Belgian movement, differentiating it from its Parisian counterpart.

Parisian Surrealism was fascinated by psychoanalysis, focusing on the irrational and the unconscious. Belgian Surrealism, meanwhile, directed its attention towards consciousness, rationality and the search for meaning. This methodology clashed with the convictions of Parisian surrealists.

Although Magritte worked with the Parisian surrealists from 1927 to 1930 while living in Paris, he maintained a degree of independence. He considered his artistic practice as a process of reasoning.

While in Paris, Magritte developed his word-pictures, as seen in The Literal Meaning and the famous The Treachery of Images (more familiarly known as Ceci n’est pas une pipe, or This is not a pipe), which today is regarded as a landmark in the history of European modern art.

His approach relied on Nougé’s reflection on the nature and status of words and images, pointing to the arbitrary nature of language. In these works, Magritte invites us to take part in a linguistic game, making us question the relationship between an object, its name and its representative image.

Back in Brussels, Magritte explored what he considered philosophical “problems” through rigorously, almost mathematically, constructed paintings. He sought to reconcile the object represented and “the thing attached to it in the shadow of consciousness” through the mediation of the canvas.

In The Human Condition, he addresses the “problem of the window” as an object to look through and as a metaphor for traditional perspectival painting, revealing the way we perceive external realities through our own internal conceptualisation.

‘Sunlit Surrealism’ and lesser-known works

The Magritte exhibit also highlights some surprising and much lesser-known works. By the mid-1930s, the artist had gained significant recognition in Europe and beyond. However, the onset of World War II prompted him to question the relevance of Surrealism as a response to the war.

He sought new approaches to Surrealism. With “Sunlit Surrealism” he looked at images evocative of happiness, adopting an impressionist style characterised by feathery brushstrokes reminiscent of Auguste Renoir, as depicted in A stroke of luck.

In the 1950s and ‘60s, Magritte returned to the realistic style that defines his work. In his art series The Dominion of Light, he creates a paradoxical image. We view the qualities of light from opposite times of day, highlighting the ambiguity created by the coexistence of light and dark.

A continuing legacy

Magritte also influenced the next generation of artists associated with pop art and conceptual art, including those well beyond his time.

Today, his influence is evident in popular visual culture, from Pedro Almodóvar’s 2009 film Broken Embraces, to Beyoncé’s music video for Mine, which references The lovers.

Magritte’s work continues to be relevant, with its exploration of perception and the porous relationship between images and reality. This theme is highly pertinent in the age of AI, where the line between the artificial and real seems increasingly blurred.

More than 50 years after his death, Magritte continues to encourage us to reflect on how we perceive, experience and describe the world around us.

Victoria Souliman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘Consciousness, rationality and the search for meaning’: how René Magritte led the Belgian surrealist movement – https://theconversation.com/consciousness-rationality-and-the-search-for-meaning-how-rene-magritte-led-the-belgian-surrealist-movement-241253

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tracey Holmes, Professorial Fellow in Sport, University of Canberra

Athletes’ voices are a necessity in the matrix of good sports governance, a message reinforced at last week’s annual Australia New Zealand Sports Law Association conference in Sydney, attended by some of the world’s best – and busiest – sports lawyers.

The timing was perfect.

It came just days after more than 100 professional female soccer players signed a letter to the sport’s global governing body, FIFA, urging them to reconsider a sponsorship deal with Saudi-owned oil giant Aramco.

The signatories, including five Australians, described the deal as “a middle finger to women’s football”, and “a stomach punch to the women’s game”, which has “set us so far back that it’s hard to fully take in”.

Just how it set back the juggernaut of women’s soccer was not sufficiently explained.

“FIFA might as well pour oil on the pitch and set it alight,” the authors continued. Emotional stuff.

Soccer in Saudi Arabia

Aramco has been targeted by the athlete activists because it is one of the world’s largest fossil fuel polluters contributing to climate change.

However, that message was almost lost in the two-page letter that focused far more on Saudi Arabia’s human rights record, its imprisonment of women’s rights activists, and its harsh laws against same sex relationships – which can result in the death penalty.

The players rightly referred to women’s soccer globally as providing a safe space for the LGBTQIA+ community, which in turn has contributed to the recent phenomenal growth of the women’s game.

But the authors either chose to ignore, or were not aware of, the phenomenal growth of the women’s game in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia itself, and the role it is playing in empowering women across a broad range of sectors who less than a decade ago were not even allowed to drive.

Saudi Arabia’s current 2024-2025 semi-professional women’s soccer season is underway boasting more than 200 players from 20 nations. The season features ten teams playing 90 matches at the senior level, while more than 77,000 girls play at schools across the nation.

It is easy to claim, as many have done, that this is purely an exercise in sportswashing.

But that ignores that soccer is also helping to facilitate a fast-moving cultural shift in Saudi Arabia, and the region more broadly, while being careful not to attract the attention of some of the ultra-conservative religious leaders who remain committed to the region’s more traditional ways.

One of the teams in the Saudi Women’s Premier League is the Eastern Flames. It was originally established in 2006 with players from the Aramco community.

Despite significant hurdles for women to play sport at all, the team survived and flourished and has been elevated into the professional league.

It would be interesting to know how many of the players who signed the letter to FIFA knew of the Aramco community and how, against the odds and prevailing culture at the time, they’ve built a club from the grassroots and turned it into a Super League team.

What about the LGBTQIA+ community?

“Imagine LGBTQIA+ players, many of whom are heroes of our sport, being expected to promote Saudi Aramco during the 2027 World Cup, the national company of a regime that criminalises the relationships that they are in and the values they stand for”, the letter states.

In a global sporting world, “values” often come into conflict, particularly when conversations of inclusion and religion appear in the same sentence.

While the LGBTQIA+ community is often highlighted as a group that has benefited from soccer’s inclusive agenda, it should be recognised that members of that same group inside Saudi Arabia have no doubt benefited also.

Unlike the west, though, where exhibitions of gay pride are accepted and sometimes celebrated, in conservative Gulf societies outward displays of affection by any couple or group (including heterosexuals) are forbidden.

Those inside the LGBTQIA+ community in conservative nations have warned those in the west that their public criticisms may have adverse consequences – making them a target when they needn’t be.

In their societies, sexuality is a matter for behind closed doors, away from the authority’s public gaze.

Issues closer to home

If the letter’s initial intention was indeed to raise the issue of fossil fuel and climate change, we needn’t look as far as the Middle East. There are environmental concerns worldwide, including in Australia which, with New Zealand, hosted the most recent and widely celebrated FIFA Women’s World Cup in 2023.

Earth.org recently reported that Australia’s fossil fuel exports contribute to global emissions more than any other country aside from Russia – owing particularly to the footprint of coal exports.

Australia has also been singled out for its role in what the small island nation of Tuvalu has described as a “death sentence” if Australia goes ahead with its planned fossil fuel expansion alongside other Commonwealth heavyweights, the United Kingdwom and Canada.

Many of the players who signed the FIFA-bound letter are high profile athletes from those very nations. Yet they expressed no such concerns in 2023, despite Australia’s fossil fuel industry and climate change impact.

The athletes’ voice can be a powerful tool, as history has shown. Its value though stems not from how loud it is, but how well informed it is.

Tracey Holmes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Is FIFA’s sponsorship deal with a Saudi-owned oil giant really ‘a middle finger’ to women’s soccer? – https://theconversation.com/is-fifas-sponsorship-deal-with-a-saudi-owned-oil-giant-really-a-middle-finger-to-womens-soccer-242109

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katie Pickles, Professor of History, University of Canterbury

In the final week of the US presidential election campaign, there is a real possibility a woman will make it into the top job. But why has it taken so long – and has Kamala Harris got what it takes to make history?

My research examines celebrated women in history and how, collectively, they represent women’s changing status in society. In particular, I have looked for the historical themes and patterns that explain the rise of the first elected women leaders.

Women in politics are generally assumed to be a minority, emerging from a position of disadvantage. When successful, they are considered exceptions in a masculine system that was previously out of bounds.

But due to the complex workings of gender, race, class and culture, it’s not quite that straightforward, as discussion of Harris’s biracial identity shows.

I have identified three broad groups of women who have succeeded in becoming elected leaders of their countries since Sirimavo Bandaranaike of Ceylon (now Sri Lanka) became the world’s first female prime minister in 1960.

Does Kamala Harris fit within any of these groups? And, if so, based on the pattern so far, does she have what it takes to become president? Or does being a global superpower mean the US demands a new form of female leadership?

Born to rule

This first group came to power largely due to old hereditary, dynastic traditions rather than through new democratic systems.

Bandaranaike was known as the “gentle widow” of Solomon Bandaranaike, the fourth prime minister of Ceylon, who was assassinated in 1959. After her came a cohort of dynastic women leaders, including three others who succeeded assassinated fathers: Indira Gandhi (India), Benazir Bhutto (Pakistan) and Park Geun-hye (South Korea).

Three others in this group – Corazon Aquino (Philippines), Violeta Chamorro (Nicaragua) and Khaleda Zia (Bangladesh) – followed their assassinated husbands into office.

There by default, coming to power to regenerate family dynasties, these women built images based on traditional mother figures, offering deliverance by “giving birth” to newly decolonised nations. In the words of her biographer, Bandaranaike was “the symbol, the figurehead that was necessary; the spark to ignite the flame”.

It took until 2016 for Taiwan’s Tsai Ing-wen to become the first woman leader from Asia not born into a political family.

The importance of family dynasty explains the apparent paradox of female leaders emerging in countries with extreme gender, class and ethnic inequalities, with Islamic nations being among the earliest to elect women.

While hailing from an elite political family has benefits for women leaders, the inverse may be true for Kamala Harris: not coming from a dynasty may be an advantage in a nation that prides itself on being an egalitarian, self-made melting pot.

Of course, US political dynasties have developed with the Bush and Kennedy clans. But Hillary Clinton’s loss to Donald Trump in 2016 was likely due in part to voters rejecting a Clinton dynasty. Being the daughter of migrants from India and Jamaica might actually help Harris this time.

Conservative ‘honorary men’

There’s a second group of politically conservative, largely White Western women. Some, like Golda Meir (Israel) and Margaret Thatcher (United Kingdom), were elected.

But others – Kim Campbell (Canada), Jenny Shipley (New Zealand) and Theresa May and Liz Truss (UK) – were chosen by their parties during an elected term. This may reflect a general reluctance by conservative voters to embrace change and vote for women.

As such, women in this group seek to be male equals, to reach the top as “honorary men”, ready to prove their strength. Margaret Thatcher played the “iron lady” and upped her ratings during the 1982 Falklands War. Golda Meir could be cast as a nurturing grandmother who made chicken soup, or “the overbearing mother who ruled the roost with her iron hand”, as later Israeli president Chaim Herzog said.

Harris doesn’t fit within this group. Were she a Republican she might be able to present as an auntie and caring stepmother who upholds the right to bear arms. But with her appeal to the politically progressive side of US society, not fitting the conservative mould may be to her advantage.

Social change-makers

A third group of women leaders skews left and actively resists restrictive maternal and gender roles. While the great majority of women world leaders have had children, this group contains a number who have not.

Unlike those in the first two groups, they often question dominant, masculine power structures and seek reform of the political system. Generally, it is hardest for these women to be elected.

Being highly educated, with careers in academia and public service, is a common experience and route to political power for this group. For example, Gro Harlem Brundtland (Norway) trained as a medical doctor, Mary McAleese (Ireland) as a lawyer and academic, and Angela Merkel (Germany) has a PhD in quantum chemistry.

These women attempt to craft new forms of leadership. They encourage more women to join them in power, and challenge sexism, homophobia and racism. More generally, they work to transform global governance, promoting pluralism, tolerance and kindness.

Since Elizabeth Domitien was elected prime minister of the Central African Republic in 1975, more women leaders of this stripe have emerged, including Vigdis Finnbogadóttir (Iceland), Mary Robinson (Ireland), Sylvie Kinigi (Burundi), Michelle Bachelet (Chile), Helen Clark and Jacinda Ardern (New Zealand), Julia Gillard (Australia), and Tarja Halonen and Sanna Marin (Finland).

The Harris challenge

Kamala Harris fits most obviously within this group. She is highly educated and experienced in public service. And she has not had children, unlike so many in the other two groups.

For that she has been branded a “childless cat lady”, of course, which points to perhaps her biggest obstacle: the alpha male culture in an alpha military superpower.

Unsurprisingly, rival military powers Russia and China are yet to elect a woman leader. It may be that being a social change-maker and having one’s finger on the nuclear button requires a new form of female leadership – a new-age warrior woman, perhaps.

It only remains to be seen whether the US, the world and Harris herself are ready for that role.

Katie Pickles received funding from Royal Society Te Apārangi as a James Cook Fellow to work on The Heroine with a Thousand Faces.

– ref. First among equals: how Kamala Harris must rewrite the history of female political leadership to win – https://theconversation.com/first-among-equals-how-kamala-harris-must-rewrite-the-history-of-female-political-leadership-to-win-241880

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Markus Wagner, Professor of Law and Director of the UOW Transnational Law and Policy Centre, University of Wollongong

With the US elections weeks away, the political battle is heating up, with both sides claiming the upper hand.

However, elections are not always won or lost at the polls. Increasingly, court proceedings are used to achieve desired political outcomes.

The media focuses on a handful of states, known as swing states, because they often swing between red and blue and can therefore play a major role in election outcomes. These races are tightening, with many state polls making it a contest too close to call.

Given their electoral importance, any legal challenges in these states are of potentially great significance. Some are already underway, while others could follow the November 5 vote.

A history of voter suppression

Democrats have tended to favour providing greater access to voting, whereas Republicans have, at times, attempted to restrict access to voting because of concerns over the integrity of the elections.

The issues of access and integrity are more perception than reality, according to both Democrat-leaning and Republican-leaning studies.

This has created a two-tiered system of democracy that, depending on where you live, dramatically influences how you are able to vote.

For decades, Republicans and Democrats have been divided over who has access to voting, and how voting should be administered. Some buzzwords include so-called voter ID laws, the gerrymandering of electoral districts, and curtailing early voting.

Another battleground is the closing of physical polling places.

From the polls to the courts

During the 2020 elections, legal battles were largely waged in the courts after voting day.

Then-President Donald Trump, unwilling to concede the election, filed 62 lawsuits, withdrew many of them, and lost the remainder.

Democrats now face a Republican Party and a supporting cast of characters that has drawn lessons from their failure to overturn the 2020 election results in court. Besides restricting voting access, Republicans and their allies in state legislatures are preparing the ground to restrict vote counting.

This has resulted in more than 165 lawsuits, mostly initiated by Republicans or their allies in a self-proclaimed “unprecedented legal strategy”.

Cases run the gamut from voter eligibility, to the counting of absentee ballots, to vote certification.

In response, Democrats have formed their own “voter protection” units in key swing states, hiring lawyers by the dozen.

Georgia in the spotlight

These changes have taken place in almost all the battleground states, but are most visible in Georgia, which has become ground zero in the 2024 legal election battles.

Georgia was the state Trump narrowly lost in 2020, prompting him to call Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to “find 11,780 votes, which is one more than we have”.

This would have overturned the state’s election results by one vote. Raffensperger refused.

What’s changed since 2020 is that the Trump campaign and its allies have taken a much more systematic approach, laying the ground for election subversion.

Republicans have continued their efforts to limit access to voting through so-called voter purges in states like Alabama, Texas and Virginia. Election officials struck thousands of eligible voters from the electoral rolls. Courts have had to step in to reverse these endeavours.

The Georgia legislature passed bills in 2021 and 2024 expanding the powers of the Georgia State Election Board. This board is legally tasked with conducting “fair, legal and orderly elections”.

These bills aimed to radically change the appointment procedure and how elections are administered. The Georgia legislature now elects the members of the State Election Board and has removed the Secretary of State (currently Raffensperger) as the chair of that board.

The supposed non-partisan board is now dominated by staunchly pro-Trump members, which Trump called “pitbulls fighting for honesty, transparency, and victory”.

The board attempted to make last-minute changes on September 20 2024 to the state’s election rules. This includes that ballots (as opposed to the actual votes) be counted by hand and that the certification of election results could be delayed if local election boards doubt the validity of election results.

In a sharply worded letter and stating its exceptional nature, the Georgia attorney-general’s office warned the board it had exceeded its authority.

Such rule changes so close to an election were held to be disfavoured, based on a previous US Supreme Court judgement that pointed out:

court orders affecting elections, especially conflicting orders, can themselves result in voter confusion and consequent incentive to remain away from the polls. As an election draws closer, that risk will increase.

These rule changes were ultimately blocked by Georgia courts. The Superior Court found the resulting “administrative chaos” to be “entirely inconsistent with the obligations of our boards of elections (and the State Election Board) to ensure that our elections are fair, legal, and orderly”. Georgia’s Supreme Court declined to hear a subsequent appeal by Republicans on procedural grounds.

The possible delay in certification was similarly struck down in court:

if election superintendents were […] free to play investigator, prosecutor, jury, and judge and […] refuse to certify election results, Georgia voters would be silenced. Our Constitution and our Election Code do not allow for that to happen.

Similar changes are afoot elsewhere. This risks that several million legally cast votes might not be counted in the 2024 elections. This would almost certain affect the results of the election.

What’s the end game?

In the end, this strategy is all about who wins the presidency.

What makes 2024 different is that Trump’s 2020 efforts targeted the outcome of the elections. While this strategy was unsuccessful, it contributed to the atmosphere that culminated in the storming of the Congress on January 6, 2021.

In 2024, the aim is to sow doubts about the legitimacy of the election process.

This has the potential to result in a chilling effect on voting, given that US elections are turnout elections.

Extending the political battlefield to the courts to limit or remove votes, or delay the results, risks long-term damage to democracy by calling into question the legitimacy of the electoral process.

Markus Wagner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. In 2020, Trump went to the courts after losing. This time, the legal challenges have already started – https://theconversation.com/in-2020-trump-went-to-the-courts-after-losing-this-time-the-legal-challenges-have-already-started-241266

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.6–47.4, a gain for Trump since last Wednesday, when Harris led by 48.8–47.2. Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9.

The US president isn’t elected by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives electoral votes equal to its federal House seats (population based) and senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes as winner-takes-all, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).

Relative to the national popular vote, the Electoral College is biased to Trump, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win to be the narrow Electoral College favourite in Silver’s model.

In Silver’s poll averages, Trump is now 0.3% ahead in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), which was tied last Wednesday. He leads in North Carolina (16) and Georgia (16) by 1.3–1.4 points and in Arizona (11) by 2.1 points. Harris leads in Michigan (15 electoral votes) by 0.7 points and in Wisconsin (ten) by 0.5 points. In Nevada (six), it’s tied.

If the election results exactly reflect the current polls, Trump would win the Electoral College by 281–251 with Nevada’s six electoral votes undecided.

The good news for Harris is that state polls haven’t moved to Trump as much as national polls in the last two weeks. If Harris regains the lead in Pennsylvania, she will probably win. But Harris would likely be better placed in Pennsylvania now if she had made the popular Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro her running mate.

Silver’s model now gives Trump a 53% chance to win the Electoral College, unchanged from last Wednesday. While Trump is barely ahead, it’s still effectively a 50–50 coin flip. There’s a 26% chance that Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College. The FiveThirtyEight forecast gives Trump a 54% win probability.

There’s just over a week until the election. If there’s late movement to either Harris or Trump or either candidate outperforms their polls, that candidate could win decisively. While the election appears very close now, it may not be so close once we see results.

Silver wrote Saturday that worries about illegal immigration are a key issue for Trump supporters. In the three years that Joe Biden has been president, apprehensions at the US southwestern border surged to record highs, with 2.2 million apprehensions in the 2022 fiscal year

LNP margin extended in Queensland on late counting

With 68% of enrolled voters now counted in Saturday’s Queensland election, The Poll Bludger’s results give the Liberal National Party (LNP) 44 of the 93 seats, Labor 27, Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) three and independents one.

Including undecided seats where one party leads, it’s 53 LNP, 34 Labor, four KAP, one Green and one independent. In Saturday night’s article, the LNP led Labor by 49 seats to 38. Analyst Kevin Bonham expects the final result to be 52 LNP, 34 Labor, five KAP, one Green and one independent.

Vote shares have also moved to the LNP, as they now lead Labor by 54.1–45.9 on the estimated two-party vote, compared with 53.1–46.9 on Saturday night. Primary votes are 42.0% LNP, 32.7% Labor, 9.4% Greens, 7.8% One Nation, 2.6% KAP and 5.5% for all Others.

On the statewide two-party vote, the most accurate poll taken in the last two weeks is currently a YouGov poll that gave the LNP a 54.5–45.5 lead. Resolve gave the LNP a 53–47 lead, Newspoll gave them a 52.5–47.5 lead and uComms was the worst, giving the LNP just a 51–49 lead.

Analyst Ben Raue wrote in The Guardian that Labor is trailing in 11 of its 14 regional seats while doing much better in south-east Queensland. Right-wing parties have been gaining in regional areas in Australia and internationally in the last ten years, while the left has gained in higher-education, urban areas.

In Australia Labor can win elections if it dominates big cities except in Queensland and Tasmania. I wrote about this in April 2022 and May 2021.

ACT election final result

The ACT uses the Hare-Clark proportional representation method with five five-member electorates, for a total of 25 seats. A quota is one-sixth of the vote or 16.7%.

The final result of the October 19 election was ten Labor (steady since 2020), nine Liberals (steady), four Greens (down two) and two independents (up two). Labor retained office in coalition with the Greens; they have governed in the ACT since 2001.

ACT-wide vote shares were 34.1% Labor (down 3.7%), 33.5% Liberals (down 0.4%), 12.2% Greens (down 1.3%), 8.5% Independents for Canberra (new) and 11.7% for all Others (down 3.1%).

In Brindabella, the Liberals had 2.59 quotas, Labor 2.03, the Greens 0.54 and Independents for Canberra 0.46.

It was initially thought that postals would help the Liberals win the last seat, but they didn’t do well enough on postals, and the Greens defeated the Liberals for the last seat by 166 votes or 0.02 quotas. Bonham followed this count.

Teal wins Pittwater by bigger than expected margin

New South Wales byelections in the Liberal-held seats of Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater occurred on October 19. Labor didn’t contest any of these seats, and the Liberals retained Epping and Hornsby easily.

In Pittwater, The Poll Bludger’s election night forecast was a 54.1–45.9 win for teal independent Jacqui Scruby, but she actually won by 56.2–43.8, a 6.8% swing to Scruby since the 2023 state election. Primary votes were 54.5% Scruby (up 18.6%), 41.5% Liberals (down 3.2%) and 4.0% for a Libertarian (new). Labor and the Greens, who received a combined 17.0% in 2023, didn’t contest.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. US presidential election remains very close; late counting in Australian elections – https://theconversation.com/us-presidential-election-remains-very-close-late-counting-in-australian-elections-242281

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Jefferson, Senior Lecturer in Education, Edith Cowan University

We are in the last stretch of the school year and just weeks away from final reports.

For some students, results may indicate serious gaps in skills or knowledge. This may be a result of circumstances outside their control, for instance, serious illness or teacher shortages. But some families may be wondering if the gaps are serious enough to consider repeating the year.

We know successful learning usually happens when we have the opportunity to rehearse, repeat and practise something multiple times.

But when it comes to getting children to repeat a year of school, research shows it is usually not a good idea.

How many students repeat?

There is little current information about the rates of repeating in Australia.

In 2014, about 7.5% of 15-year-olds had repeated one year over the course of their schooling, down slightly from 8% in 2009.

Repeating a year remains a common practice in other countries, such as France and Spain. But there has been a shift away from repeating in Australian schools.

For younger children in particular, the focus has shifted to stopping students from starting too young – rather than delaying their progression once they get to school.

Repeating does not usually work

It is well documented repeating a year typically has a negative impact on a student’s social and emotional needs.

It is supposed to help a student “catch up” but can instead harm their motivation and engagement. Counterintuitively, it can also harm their progress in literacy and numeracy if they are not motivated or interested in school.

As a 2021 review of 84 studies showed, repeating a year can see students left behind by their friends, harm a student’s confidence, and worsen their behaviour at school if they are unhappy.

It also found on average, repeaters and non-repeaters seemed to show a similar level of development – so there was no tangible benefit to repeating a year.

This is why education departments now only suggest repeating a year in “exceptional circumstances”. Particularly in the primary years, schools will work with students to help them catch up in term 4 for the following year.

What can you do instead?

So if your child is struggling academically – or with some other element at school – how can you approach it?

You can start by investigating and understanding why your child is struggling. Does your child need specialist help for a learning difficulty? Is there an issue with bullying or another social problem that is harming their progress? Or is there something else going on for them outside school?

Other things you can do include:

1. stay in touch with your child’s school: it could include casual chats with the teacher outside the classroom after school. For older students it could mean monitoring due dates for assessments on the school’s information portal

2. think about how old your child is: especially when children are younger a few months can make a huge difference. If your child is struggling, is it because they are several months younger than most of your peers? This may mean you need to be patient and know with more time they will catch up

3. ask teachers for more specific help: helping students of differing stages and abilities to learn is core work for teachers. And they can use different strategies to help students learn

4. consider a tutor: if you child needs extra help, this could be one way to assist their learning. However, it is important to choose your tutor carefully and make sure a tutor’s approach matches your child’s specific needs.

It can feel very difficult as a parent to see your child struggling or failing academically at school. Let them know it is OK. Tell them it’s what they do next that matters and they are not alone. You are here to help.

And when in doubt, communicate your concerns clearly and consistently with the school.

Sarah Jefferson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Is it a good idea to repeat a year at school? – https://theconversation.com/is-it-a-good-idea-to-repeat-a-year-at-school-242106

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jianxin Wang, Associate professor of finance, University of Technology Sydney

With the US presidential election on a knife edge and less than a week away, financial markets are watching with bated breath.

There’s no shortage of reasons to be nervous. Both sides have outlined radically different visions of America’s economic future, with major implications for the rest of the world.

All of this stands against the backdrop of simmering tensions with China and an ongoing crisis in the Middle East. The price of gold – a common way for investors to hedge against uncertainty – has soared to record heights.

Many have been speculating about what might be in store for the stock market and the economy – both in the United States and here in Australia.

Obviously, that depends on far more than just who is sitting in the Oval Office. However, looking at history still tells an interesting – and perhaps surprising – story.

Read more:
From mass deportations to huge tariff hikes, here’s what Trump’s economic program would do to the US and Australia

Elephants, donkeys, bulls and bears

In the United States, both sides of the political divide are subject to some oversimplifying stereotypes.

Democrats are often seen as the party of proactive government spending, favouring policies that redistribute wealth through taxation. Republicans, on the other hand, have a reputation as the business-friendly party of small government, favouring more passive policies with lower tax rates.

So, it might surprise you to learn that if we zoom out and look at a big chunk of the past century, the US economy and its stock markets have actually performed better under Democratic presidencies, on two key measures.

Research by Lubos Pastor and Pietro Veronesi from the University of Chicago examined the period between 1927 and 2015.

They found average growth in gross domestic product (GDP) was 4.86% under Democratic presidents. Under Republican presidencies, it averaged 1.7%.

Over the same period, the US share market’s “equity risk premium” was also 10.9% higher under Democratic presidents than Republicans. In the years from 1999 to 2015, it was even higher under democratic presidents – 17.4%.

This is the excess rate of return that can be earned by investing in shares above the “risk-free rate” (such as the interest rate on a savings account).

Why is it worth looking at the risk premium instead of total share market returns? Because it helps separate out the effect of interest rates.

The return on assets like shares is comprised of the risk-free rate from banks plus this risk premium. Risk-free rates are largely determined by central banks, which in most countries are independent from the government.

What might be driving this effect?

Whether this performance reflects good luck or good policies is much harder to answer. If the effect was arising from superior policy decisions, it would imply voters have been repeatedly failing to reward good government.

Pastor and Veronesi argue something different – that when the economy is weak and stock prices are low, voters are more risk-averse. That can lead them to prefer the wealth redistribution policies of the Democrats.

The last three transitions from Republican to Democratic presidencies support this theory. Bill Clinton was elected shortly after the 1990-91 recession, Barack Obama at the peak of the global financial crisis, and Joe Biden during the pandemic.

As the economy recovers from a crisis, stock prices often increase. Pastor and Veronesi’s thesis suggests that the election – and the good performance – of Democratic presidents comes down to the timing of voters’ heightened risk aversion.

Highly interlinked economies

Historically, monthly stock returns in Australia and the US have been highly correlated – my calculations show this is even more so in election years.

Correlation famously doesn’t say anything about causation, just that when we see change in one, we typically see a similar change in the other. That means some of the effects we described earlier can be felt here (and around the world), as well.

Expanding their long-term analysis internationally, Pastor and Veronesi found that the average equity risk premium of Australian stocks was also higher under Democratic presidencies in the US – by 11.3%!

Similar higher returns were also observed in the United Kingdom – 7.3%. And they were even larger in Canada, France, and Germany – all about 13%.

Two factors may help explain why what happens in the US is so wide-reaching. Stocks in these markets are globally owned. US presidential elections may reflect the cycle of global risk aversion, which in turn affects local stock markets.

These economies and financial markets are also highly integrated with the US in areas such as trade, making their economic cycles highly correlated.

A stock market boom?

Will a win by the Democrats in November usher in a stock market boom? It’s unlikely, for two reasons.

First, a win by the Democrats would be a continuation, not a transition from a Republican president. It would not represent policy changes favoured by more risk-averse voters.

Second, it would be a Democratic win in a booming economy. The US economy has been going strong since the end of the pandemic.

It added 254,000 jobs in September, the strongest job growth in six months. It also grew at an annualised pace of 3% in the second quarter of 2024, above its average of below 2% over the past decade.

Other research suggests some important caveats, too. On average, the short-term market reaction to an election does not favour the Democrats or the Republicans.

However, a surprise win by a Republican – that is, one contrary to prediction markets – is associated with 2-3% higher returns around election days.

One possible reason for this is that unlike voters, equity fund managers are more likely to be Republican-leaning. A surprise win by their favoured candidate can boost stock prices when the winner is declared.

Read more:
A new book reveals much of Trump’s success is based on a myth he is a self-made billionaire

Jianxin Wang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How do US presidential elections affect the economy and the stock market? – https://theconversation.com/how-do-us-presidential-elections-affect-the-economy-and-the-stock-market-241805

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Frederic Gachon, Associate Professor, Physiology of Circadian Rhythms, Institute for Molecular Bioscience, The University of Queensland

This is the next article in our ‘Light and health’ series, where we look at how light affects our physical and mental health in sometimes surprising ways. Read other articles in the series here.

Exposure to light is crucial for our physical and mental health, as this and future articles in the series will show.

But the timing of that light exposure is also crucial. This tells our body to wake up in the morning, when to poo and the time of day to best focus or be alert. When we’re exposed to light also controls our body temperature, blood pressure and even chemical reactions in our body.

But how does our body know when it’s time to do all this? And what’s light got to do with it?

What is the body clock, actually?

One of the key roles of light is to re-set our body clock, also known as the circadian clock. This works like an internal oscillator, similar to an actual clock, ticking away as you read this article.

But rather than ticking you can hear, the body clock is a network of genes and proteins that regulate each other. This network sends signals to organs via hormones and the nervous system. These complex loops of interactions and communications have a rhythm of about 24 hours.

In fact, we don’t have one clock, we have trillions of body clocks throughout the body. The central clock is in the hypothalamus region of the brain, and each cell in every organ has its own. These clocks work in concert to help us adapt to the daily cycle of light and dark, aligning our body’s functions with the time of day.

However, our body clock is not precise and works to a rhythm of about 24 hours (24 hours 30 minutes on average). So every morning, the central clock needs to be reset, signalling the start of a new day. This is why light is so important.

The central clock is directly connected to light-sensing cells in our retinas (the back of the eye). This daily re-setting of the body clock with morning light is essential for ensuring our body works well, in sync with our environment.

In parallel, when we eat food also plays a role in re-setting the body clock, but this time the clock in organs other than the brain, such as the liver, kidneys or the gut.

So it’s easy to see how our daily routines are closely linked with our body clocks. And in turn, our body clocks shape how our body works at set times of the day.

What time of day?

Let’s take a closer look at sleep

The naturally occurring brain hormone melatonin is linked to our central clock and makes us feel sleepy at certain times of day. When it’s light, our body stops making melatonin (its production is inhibited) and we are alert. Closer to bedtime, the hormone is made, then secreted, making us feel drowsy.

Our sleep is also partly controlled by our genes, which are part of our central clock. These genes influence our chronotype – whether we are a “lark” (early riser), “night owl” (late sleeper) or a “dove” (somewhere in between).

But exposure to light at night when we are supposed to be sleeping can have harmful effects. Even dim light from light pollution can impair our heart rate and how we metabolise sugar (glucose), may lead to psychiatric disorders such as depression, anxiety and bipolar disorder, and increases the overall risk of premature death.

The main reason for these harmful effects is that light “at the wrong time” disturbs the body clock, and these effects are more pronounced for “night owls”.

This “misaligned” exposure to light is also connected to the detrimental health effects we often see in people who work night shifts, such as an increased risk of cancer, diabetes and heart disease.

How about the gut?

Digestion also follows a circadian rhythm. Muscles in the colon that help move waste are more active during the day and slow down at night.

The most significant increase in colon movement starts at 6.30am. This is one of the reasons why most people feel the urge to poo in the early morning rather than at night.

The gut’s day-night rhythm is a direct result of the action of the gut’s own clock and the central clock (which synchronises the gut with the rest of the body). It’s also influenced by when we eat.

How about focusing?

Our body clock also helps control our attention and alertness levels by changing how our brain functions at certain times of day. Attention and alertness levels improve in the afternoon and evening but dip during the night and early morning.

Those fluctuations impact performance and can lead to decreased productivity and an increased risk of errors and accidents during the less-alert hours.

So it’s important to perform certain tasks that require our attention at certain times of day. That includes driving. In fact, disruption of the circadian clock at the start of daylight savings – when our body hasn’t had a chance to adapt to the clocks changing – increases the risk of a car accident, particularly in the morning.

What else does our body clock control?

Our body clock influences many other aspects of our biology, including:

• physical performance by controlling the activity of our muscles
• blood pressure by controlling the system of hormones involved in regulating our blood volume and blood vessels
• body temperature by controlling our metabolism and our level of physical activity
• how our body handles drugs and toxins by controlling enzymes involved in how the liver and kidneys eliminate these substances from the body.

Morning light is important

But what does this all mean for us? Exposure to light, especially in the morning, is crucial for synchronising our circadian clock and bodily functions.

As well as setting us up for a good night’s sleep, increased morning light exposure benefits our mental health and reduces the risk of obesity. So boosting our exposure to morning light – for example, by going for a walk, or having breakfast outside – can directly benefit our mental and metabolic health.

However, there are other aspects about which we have less control, including the genes that control our body clock.

Frederic Gachon is currently receiving funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), the Velux Stiftung, and the US National Institute of Health. He has previously received funding from the French Institute for Medical Research and Health (INSERM: 2006-2008), the Swiss National Science Foundation (2010-2012), the European Research Council (2011- 2015) and the Leenaards Foundation (2012-2014). He also worked for Nestlé (2012-2017) where he received industry funding.

Benjamin Weger is currently receiving funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia) Investigator Grant (2016334) and the Alzheimer’s Association Research Fellowship (US, AARF-22-917584). He was also an employee of Nestec, a subsidiary of the Nestlé group, from 2014 to 2018.

– ref. How light tells you when to sleep, focus and poo – https://theconversation.com/how-light-tells-you-when-to-sleep-focus-and-poo-236780

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Weeks, Associate Senior Research Scientist, The University of Melbourne

The dingo was completely isolated from other canines on the Australian mainland for more than 5,000 years, until domestic dogs arrived on the scene. Subsequent concerns about livestock loss formed the basis of Australia’s “wild dog” (dingo) pest control programs, which continue today. Stretching 5,614km across Australia, the “dingo fence” or “dog fence” was built in the 1880s to keep dingoes away from livestock in the southeast.

Dingoes are protected as a threatened species in Victoria. But dingo–dog hybrids are considered pests, and therefore allowed to be killed.

Unfortunately, past research claimed to find evidence dingo-dog hybrids are common in the wild across eastern Australia. This research has been used to defend the trapping, poisoning and shooting of these animals in some parts of Australia, particularly Victoria.

But other studies and now our new genetic research show dingoes are not breeding with domestic dogs in the wild. Rather, they are maintaining their independence as a unique evolutionary branch.

Our research also highlights the precarious state of dingo populations in Victoria. We fear dingo genetic diversity will continue to decline as long as lethal control measures are used. Ironically, this could prompt dingoes to mate with dogs to survive.

Two tales of Victorian dingoes

Victoria has two main populations of dingoes: northwestern and eastern.

The northwestern population consists of as few as 40 dingoes and is protected.

But the eastern population of 2,640–8,800 dingoes is not fully protected. Lethal control measures are allowed on private land and on public land within 3km of a private land boundary. This “unprotection order”, introduced to safeguard livestock, was recently extended until 2028.

In 2022 alone, 683 dingoes were trapped and shot on public land as part of the Victorian wild dog program. But this number doesn’t include deaths from baiting programs, or farmers shooting dingoes on private land. Altogether, it’s estimated up to 1,500 dingoes are killed in eastern Victoria each year.

This means a substantial proportion of the eastern Victorian population is being killed every year. Even if population size is maintained despite culling, it may still reduce genetic diversity.

The threat of inbreeding

When a population shrinks, related individuals start to breed with each other. Inbreeding decrease litter size, increase deformities and pup deaths, and reduce resistance to diseases.

We think this is already happening in the northwestern population. Our research shows its genetic diversity is critically low. Recent observations of tail deformities underscore the potential consequences of low genetic diversity.

What we did and what we found

We obtained 434 frozen canine DNA or tissue samples for genetic analysis, from organisations around Australia.

The Victorian samples mainly came from the state’s wild dog program (2014–19). Other samples came from government officers, private landholders, conservation groups and dog owners.

Most (380) of the samples were originally collected in the field from free-ranging animals believed to be either pure dingoes or potential dingo–dog hybrids.

The remaining 54 samples came from domestic and captive animals. These were 39 domestic dogs, seven known hybrids born in captivity, and eight known “backcrossed” dingo–dog hybrid × dingo crosses born in captivity.

We found the free-ranging animals were all dingoes. They fell into one of three distinct groups: alpine, desert or mallee. They were distinct from the domestic dogs and known hybrids born in captivity.

The results also revealed low genetic diversity in all three dingo groups.

The isolated population in northwest Victoria is in particularly bad shape. Local extinction is probable in the near future. That’s why the unprotection order was lifted there.

If culling of the eastern population continues, it could soon follow suit.

Ongoing decline may prompt desperate measures

The ongoing unprotection order is likely to further diminish genetic diversity. As dingo numbers decline and options for mates become increasingly limited, this could force dingoes to mate with dogs.

In North America, hunting of red wolves decimated their populations, while the numbers of coyotes increased, forcing these two species to hybridise.

Mating with domestic dogs may actually increase dingo genetic diversity and allay concerns about inbreeding. But the implications will be profound, not just for the dingo itself, but for the ecosystem, Traditional Owners and even graziers. Balancing livestock protection against conservation of this iconic species is more crucial now than ever before.

In the next decade or so, Victorian dingoes may reach a “genetic cliff” where their genetic decline is irreversible. So it is essential to develop strategies that both support graziers and the unique dingo lineage.

Several non-lethal management strategies have been previously described. These need to be further developed with input from graziers, so they can be applied effectively across Victoria.

Treading a different path

Our research reveals dingoes remain genetically distinct from domestic dogs, despite more than 200 years of coexistence. This is consistent with recent research challenging previous claims about widespread interbreeding.

Unfortunately, our research also found low genetic diversity in all dingo populations. We are continuing to explore the genetic state of dingoes across Australia using new genomic approaches. This work promises to provide more insight into the decline of this iconic Australian animal.

In the meantime, we urge governments across Australia to consider the biological consequences of killing dingoes. It is becoming increasingly clear that “wild dog” control programs are contributing to their genetic decline.

Andrew Weeks is an Adjunct Research Fellow at the University of Melbourne and a Director of Cesar Australia, a small research based company that works in the fields of sustainable agriculture and biodiversity conservation. He receives funding from the Victorian Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action.

Collin Ahrens is a Visiting Fellow at the Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment at Western Sydney University and a Senior Geneticist of Cesar Australia, a small research based company that works in the fields of sustainable agriculture and biodiversity conservation. He receives funding from the Victorian Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action.

– ref. Dingoes are not mating with dogs – but that could soon change if the culling continues – https://theconversation.com/dingoes-are-not-mating-with-dogs-but-that-could-soon-change-if-the-culling-continues-241350

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Thomas, Lecturer in Middle East Studies, Deakin University

Israel’s strike on military targets in Iran over the weekend is becoming a more routine occurrence in the decades-long rivalry between the two states.

Israel has conducted low-level or “unofficial” operations in Iran in the past, but since the October 7 2023 Hamas attacks on southern Israel and subsequent Israeli war in Gaza, tensions between Iran and Israel have spilled over into direct military confrontation for the first time.

While the consequences of this particular strike are not yet clear, it does show that the violence in the Middle East is not winding down any time soon. This is also a clear example of how easily one conflict – in this case, Gaza – can expand into new conflicts with unintended consequences.

But there are other dimensions at play beyond Gaza and the Palestinians. Relations between Israel and post-revolutionary Iran have never been good. The Iranian government has called for the destruction of Israel, and Israel has used its foreign intelligence service, Mossad, to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program with assassinations and cyber warfare.

In its most recent direct attack on Iran, Israel struck military targets from the air in the provinces of Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam, causing minor damage to military installations and killing four soldiers. Israel had consulted the US State Department about its plans, but the US was not directly involved in the strikes.

Though Tehran has played down the extent of the damage, the Iranian regime has not ruled out a response, which should keep the region on edge for weeks to come. In fact, some hardliners in the Iranian parliament say the strike crossed a red line and a response is necessary.

Who’s to blame here?

Answering the question of “who started it?” in this conflict is not that simple.

If you were to ask the Iranians, they would say the first escalation came in early April when Israel struck an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus, Syria, killing two senior Iranian generals, among others.

If you were to ask the Israelis, they would say that attacks by Hezbollah in northern Israel over the past year are effectively Iran throwing the first stone, as Hezbollah is a militant proxy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Iran has responded to Israeli strikes on its territory twice with barrages of rockets and explosive drones – once in retaliation for the consulate strike and again in early October after Ismail Haniyeh, one of the leaders of Hamas, was killed by a strike in Tehran. Israel’s latest airstrike was in direct response to Iran’s early October retaliation.

US President Joe Biden said after the latest Israeli attack, “I hope this is the end” – an effort to urge both parties to halt their escalations. But unfortunately it is not his call to make.

Maintaining a delicate balance

There is a reason why direct military strikes between nations are rare, even between sworn enemies. When attacking another state, it is difficult to know exactly how they will respond, though a retaliatory strike is almost often expected.

This is because defence forces are not just used for fighting and winning wars – they are also vital to deterring them. When a fighting force is attacked, it’s important for it to strike back to maintain the perception it can deter future attacks and make a display of its capabilities. This is what is happening right now between Israel and Iran – neither side wants to appear weak.

If this is the case, where does the escalation end? De-escalation is essentially a game of chicken – one side has to be content with not responding to an attack to take the temperature down.

But there are equal pressures on states to choose to respond to an attack or de-escalate.

On the one hand, showing that your military is incapable of responding to an external threat is unacceptable, and theoretically invites further attacks. An unused deterrent is not a deterrent.

On the other, there’s the risk a retaliation could spiral into all-out conflict with your adversary. In the case of Israel and Iran this would almost certainly mean the involvement of US forces – a dire prospect.

Thankfully, this outcome is unlikely. There are signs both Iran and Israel are using their strikes to “save face” and maintain their deterrence capability rather than escalate tensions further, given the fact both made strikes on nonessential targets.

Both sides have reasons to avoid a larger conflict. Israel has just opened a second front against its adversaries by targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon and would face the largest conventional fighting force in the region if an all-out war broke out with Iran.

And Iran’s leaders have been under pressure domestically in recent years due to widespread public discontent. Iran would much rather continue to attack Israel through its proxies and maintain plausible deniability, as a direct war could threaten the regime’s survival.

But this latest strike is also a reminder that the longer conflicts go on, the less likely they are to remain contained. For over a year, the war in Gaza has raised tensions in the region to a fever pitch. A ceasefire would go a long way to reducing these tensions and stop the spread of political violence across the region – before it’s too late.

Andrew Thomas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Israel and Iran are playing a dangerous game of chicken that will be impossible to contain forever – https://theconversation.com/israel-and-iran-are-playing-a-dangerous-game-of-chicken-that-will-be-impossible-to-contain-forever-242275

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Often state elections don’t mean much federally, but Saturday’s Queensland’s result does carry implications for Anthony Albanese, Peter Dutton and Adam Bandt.

Neither the prime minister nor the opposition leader will have missed the fact the actual campaign mattered. The new LNP government is headed to a comfortable majority but go back some time and Labor feared a wipeout.

Initially, that prompted the replacement of Annastacia Palaszczuk with Steven Miles less than a year ago.

Fast forward to the campaign, and a comparison between the pre-poll votes and the votes cast on Saturday shows how Labor clawed back some support during the final dash to the finish.

This pattern might make both federal leaders nervous. Albanese ran a relatively poor campaign in 2022. Looking back further, remember how the campaign went badly for Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in 2016, and for Prime Minister Julia Gillard in 2010.

Peter Dutton is an unknown quantity in leading an election campaign, when scrutiny is intense and small things can blow out of proportion.

In Queensland we saw, once again, that scare campaigns are effective, and that Labor in particular is good at them.

Miles and state Labor seized on suggestions that women’s access to abortion could be rolled back by the LNP, perhaps via a private a member’s bill from Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) and a conscience vote for LNP MPs.

LNP leader David Crisafulli, likely sensitive to division within his own ranks, failed to react skillfully to the potential damage this issue could do him. He did not jump on it hard enough, early enough. Some shifty answers stoked fears and made him look dodgy.

Federal Liberals realise the risk of the abortion issue, which has seen passionate debate in parliament in the past even though the federal jurisdiction touches it only marginally.

When a couple of Nationals – senator Jacinta Price and Barnaby Joyce – aired their anti abortion views in the last week they were slapped down by Liberal women.

While abortion might be hard to mobilise as a federal issue in the coming election, scare campaigns can arise on all sorts of things, and unpredictably. Remember Labor’s “Mediscare” in 2016.

Parties have to be quick to recognise the potency of a scare, and deal with it effectively. Once it gets away it spreads like a bushfire, especially in the social media age of campaigning.

The state result will give heart to Dutton’s strategy of targeting the outer suburbs. As ABC election analyst Antony Green pointed out, the anti-Labor swing “was smaller in the south east than in regional Queensland, and smaller in inner Brisbane compared to outer Brisbane”.

More widely, in Australia the trend in recent years is towards Labor becoming the party of inner urban voters and the Liberals targeting outer suburbia.

The federal Greens will need to do some self-questioning about their strategy after their Queensland result. While their overall vote was not hit they appear certain of only one of their two state seats. They had talked up expectations of expanding their numbers.

This comes after seat losses at this month’s ACT election and a poor performance in the New South Wales local government election.

In 2022 the Greens increased their House of Representatives numbers from one to four, by winning three Queensland seats, two from the Coalition (Brisbane and Ryan) and one (Griffith) from Labor.

In this term of federal parliament, the Greens have become more extreme in their positions. The Middle East conflict has pushed this left-wing party further to the left. High profile Greens Max Chandler-Mather, from Queensland, appeared at a pro-CFMEU rally. The Greens have played hardball on some key government legislation.

As they review their situation, the Greens might be wise to cut a deal sooner rather than later on the housing bills they are holding up in the Senate. They have sought to make housing a high-priority issue for them, and could alienate voters they are targeting by continuing to hold out on measures the government argues will contribute to easing the housing crisis.

Finally, both the federal government and the Coalition will be able to see advantages in this result.

For the Coalition there is the golden threat of a conservative victory which, together with the federal polls, it can take as suggesting national opinion is, to a greater or lesser extent, moving in its favour.

Labor can look to silver linings. While the cost of living, an issue hitting the Albanese government hard federally, was central in the Queensland election, so was crime, as well as the “it’s time” factor. Crime was a distinctly state matter, and the Albanese government is looking for a second term, not a fourth one.

Federal Labor’s hope is that now voters have “vented” at a state level, they might be – despite the cost-of-living pressures – in a more benign mood when next year’s federal election comes.

For those in Queensland, that mood will also be influenced by how the Crisafulli government performs in the next few months, in meeting public expectations and avoiding missteps.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. View from The Hill: Queensland’s lessons for Anthony Albanese, Peter Dutton and Adam Bandt’s band – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-queenslands-lessons-for-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-and-adam-bandts-band-242213

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Pandanus Petter, Research Fellow School of Politics and International Relations, Australian National University

David Crisafulli, leader of the centre-right Liberal National Party of Queensland (LNP), will be Queensland’s 41st Premier. The party will form majority government for the first time since 2012.

Late Saturday night, Crisafulli claimed a victory of “hope over fear”, following a campaign dominated by messaging around youth crime, cost of living, housing and health crisises.

Although earlier polling was projecting a landslide to the LNP, Steven Miles’ three-term Labor party were able to narrow this lead in the final week of campaigning.

While there will be a change of government, the result wasn’t as decisive as many expected. As the vote counts trickled in on election night, they revealed a fragmented picture of who Queenslanders want in their parliament.

Read more:
LNP wins Queensland election, likely with a clear majority

LNP success in the regions

Miles campaigned vigorously on bread and butter, cost of living issues while promising more state involvement and regulation in housing, energy retail and petrol stations.

This looks to have played well in their heartland seats in Brisbane, Ipswich and Logan where they have likely returned South Brisbane and Ipswich West to the fold. Labor lost the former to The Greens in 2020 and the latter to the LNP in a by-election earlier in 2024.

Despite this, with their laser focus on youth crime, the LNP made strong gains across the state, particularly on the North and central Queensland coasts.

They even took Mackay, a seat Labor has held for more than a century.

The LNP harmonised their heavy focus on crime with the selection of candidates. Some were high-profile victims of crime campaigners (such as in Capalaba, just outside of Brisbane). Others had a background in law enforcement.

How did the minor parties fare?

While the primary vote for the Greens increased modestly, they fell short of the election results they had hoped for. Having campaigned hard in four inner Brisbane seats in particular, the party has failed to pick up any seats so far, though they’re ahead in Maiwar.

Despite their efforts to pick up more seats in Queensland’s north, the parliament will likely continue on with a contingent of three or four Katter’s Australian Party MPs.

Popular independent Sandy Bolton was reelected in Noosa, while One Nation failed to secure a seat after running a candidate in all 93 electorates.

But the LNP will govern with a majority. It is one Crisafulli last night said they would use with “humility and decency”, in order to “govern for a long time”.

This was likely alluding to possible lessons learned from the LNP’s short-lived success last time around.

But it was also foreshadowing challenges he will face as a leader.

Who’s the new premier?

Like many politicians, Crisafulli will point to his early upbringing as teaching valuable lessons along his pathway to the premiership.

The 45-year-old was born in Ingham in North Queensland, the son and grandson of Italian migrants who run a successful sugarcane farm.

In his maiden speech in 2012, he attributed his success to his upbringing on the farm, the discipline he learned at local Catholic primary and secondary schools and the skills acquired working as a journalist during and after his days at James Cook University (where he was also known for competitive spaghetti eating).

He can claim to be able to understand the needs of rural constituents and those in the far north, who often feel neglected compared to the more densely populated south-east.

Despite this, his later career shows that he’s not tied down to that rural identity. It also shows he can’t claim to be an amateur politician.

Although he wasn’t involved in student politics, his political education began early as a media advisor for former Howard Minister Ian McDonald.

He demonstrated energy and ambition which have remained hallmarks of his career when he took a successful tilt at usually Labor-dominated Townsville politics, becoming the youngest ever councillor in 2004 and deputy mayor in 2008.

He joined state parliament in the bellwether seat of Mundingburra as part of Campbell Newman’s 2012 wipeout of Labor.

However, his time as a cabinet minister and high public profile weren’t enough to save him from a bitter exit from parliament when the electorate swung back towards Labor in 2015.

After reinventing himself as a Gold Coast based business consultant, he began his ascent anew by successfully defeating the incumbent in the safe LNP seat of Broadwater.

After the party lost the 2020 election, Crisafulli took over the party leadership.

He remained constantly on the move, unusually not residing permanently in his electorate but instead travelling the state extensively.

Crisafulli has focused on keeping public attention on crises (so-called or real) in youth crime (even promising to resign if he couldn’t quickly quash crime rates).

He also campaigned on health services and home-ownership and cost of living.

In aid of this goal, he mirrored many Labor party commitments to cost-of-living relief, such as cheaper public transport. Unusually, Crisafulli even agreed to honour their budget commitments sight unseen.

But on more controversial issues of interest to the party’s conservative base, he’s shown a tendency to try to avoid being nailed down.

This was most clear on the issue of abortion. Late in the campaign, Crisafulli said he supported “a woman’s right to choose”, but hasn’t ruled out a conscience vote on the subject.

Read more:
Labor looks set for a resounding defeat in Queensland. But the state’s elections have long thrown up surprises

Otherwise, he has only moved the party decisively to the right when he could claim to be following public opinion. For example, he abandoned bipartisan support for a Pathway to Treaty with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders after the unsuccessful Voice referendum.

Interestingly, Crisafulli has shown a willingness to disagree with his federal counterparts on nuclear energy.

Given he’s staked his leadership and credibility on addressing thorny problems in housing, health, crime and cost of living, he may have to take some big political risks.

Given the voters of Queensland have gifted him a majority, which in Queensland’s parliament comes with few restrictions on power, how well he’ll manage to avoid the mistakes of the Newman era remains to be seen.

Pandanus Petter is employed at the Australian National University with funding from The Australian Research Council.

– ref. David Crisafulli will lead the first LNP government in Queensland in a decade. Who is he? – https://theconversation.com/david-crisafulli-will-lead-the-first-lnp-government-in-queensland-in-a-decade-who-is-he-240906

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

With 45% of enrolled voters counted in today’s Queensland state election, The Poll Bludger’s results have the Liberal National Party (LNP) winning 38 of the 93 seats, Labor 26, Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) three and independents one.

Including undecided seats where one party is ahead, it’s 49 LNP, 39 Labor, three KAP, one Green and one independent. A majority is achieved with 47 seats, so the LNP are on track for a majority.

The statewide two-party estimate is a 53.1–46.9 win to the LNP, a 6.3% swing to the LNP since the 2020 election. Current primary votes are 40.9% LNP (up 5.7%), 33.4% Labor (down 6.6%), 10.3% Greens (up 0.7%), 7.8% One Nation (up 1.0%) and 2.3% KAP (down 0.3%).

As pre-poll and postal votes have come in, the swing to the LNP has increased as these votes have had stronger swings to the LNP than election day votes. There are many more pre-poll and postals still to be counted, so it’s more likely that the LNP will exceed its current projections than fall below them.

I believe the Resolve poll that gave the LNP a 53–47 lead will be the most accurate. While Labor recovered from landslide defeat margins in polls taken about the middle of this year, it wasn’t enough. The uComms poll that gave the LNP just a 51–49 lead two days before the election was poor.

The Greens lost South Brisbane to Labor, after the LNP recommended preferences to Labor on their how-to-vote material after recommending preferences to the Greens in 2020. Analyst Kevin Bonham said this is the first time the Greens have lost a single-member seat that they won at the previous general election.

The key reasons for Labor’s defeat were an “it’s time” factor, as Labor has governed since winning the January 2015 election, the federal Labor government tending to hurt state Labor parties, and Queensland easily being the most pro-Coalition state at the 2022 federal election.

At that election, Queensland was the only state where the Coalition won the two-party vote (by 54.1–45.9). The second best state for the Coalition was New South Wales, where Labor won the two-party vote by 51.4–48.6.

Labor’s defeat in Queensland will give some assistance to federal Labor. An unpopular and old Queensland Labor government would have hindered federal Labor’s prospects in Queensland at the federal election that is due by May 2025.

Late polls

The Newspoll and uComms poll were both released after Wednesday’s preview article on the Queensland election.

A Newspoll, conducted October 18–24 from a sample of 1,151, had given the LNP a 52.5–57.5 lead, a 2.5-point gain for Labor since a mid-September Newspoll. Primary votes were 42% LNP (steady), 33% Labor (up three), 11% Greens (down one), 8% One Nation (steady) and 6% for all Others (down two).

Labor premier Steven Miles gained seven points for a -3 net approval, with 48% dissatisfied and 45% satisfied. LNP leader David Crisafulli’s net approval plunged 15 points to -3. Miles led Crisafulli by 45–42 as better premier, a reversal from a 46–39 Crisafulli lead in September.

A uComms poll that was conducted Thursday from a sample of 3,651 using robopolling, gave the LNP a 51–49 lead. Bonham had primary votes from this poll, which was not commissioned by anyone. The primary votes were 39.3% LNP, 33.6% Labor, 12.9% Greens, 7.8% One Nation, 2.9% KAP and 3.5% others.

Federal Essential poll: Labor slumps and Dutton’s ratings jump

A national Essential poll, conducted October 16–20 from a sample of 1,140, gave the Coalition a 48–46 lead including undecided (49–47 to Labor in early October). Primary votes were 35% Coalition (up one), 28% Labor (down four), 12% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (down one), 2% UAP (up one), 9% for all Others (steady) and 6% undecided (up one).

Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved one point from September to -4, with 48% disapproving and 44% approving. He has improved six points since August. Peter Dutton’s net approval jumped six points to +6, his best in any poll this term.

King Charles had a 50–26 approval rating. By 45–39, voters supported Australia becoming a republic (42–35 in January). On Australia’s colonial history, 26% thought it something we should be proud of, 12% something we should be ashamed of and 62% said it had both positive and negative elements.

On the National Anti-Corruption Commission, 46% thought it is largely operating as intended but could be improved, 14% wanted it abolished and 10% said it’s successful.

Freshwater poll: Coalition holds narrow lead

A national Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted October 18–20 from a sample of 1,034, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the September Freshwater poll. Primary votes were 41% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (steady) and 16% for all Others.

Albanese’s net approval was up one point to -14, with 49% unfavourable and 35% favourable. Dutton’s net approval improved two points to -2. Albanese was just ahead as preferred PM by 44–43 (45–41 in September).

Asked about Albanese buying a $4.3 million house, 52% said it had no impact on their view of him, 36% said it had worsened their view and 4% improved their view.

Cost of living remained the top issue with 72% saying it was important. The Coalition retained a 14-point lead over Labor on this issue and a 16-point lead on managing the economy.

Morgan poll: Labor jumps ahead

A national Morgan poll, conducted October 14–20 from a sample of 1,687, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the October 7–13 Morgan poll.

Primary votes were 36.5% Coalition (down one), 32% Labor (up two), 13.5% Greens (down 0.5), 5.5% One Nation (down 0.5), 9% independents (steady) and 3.5% others (steady).

The headline figure uses respondent preferences. By 2022 election preference flows, Labor led by 53–47, a two-point gain for Labor.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. LNP wins Queensland election, likely with a clear majority – https://theconversation.com/lnp-wins-queensland-election-likely-with-a-clear-majority-241918

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Ginters, Associate Professor, Department of Theatre and Performance Studies, University of Sydney

After nearly 20 years as a lecture theatre, the University of Sydney’s Footbridge Theatre is reopening as a live performance venue in the university’s arts precinct.

The Footbridge is home to a long history of student theatre on campus. When it opened in 1961 as the 655-seat Union Theatre (replacing the old Union Hall) it was the first theatre to have been built in Sydney in more than 20 years.

Hopes were high for the new venture to be shared by student theatre groups and Sydney’s first professional repertory company, the Union Repertory Theatre Company (not to be confused with the Melbourne Theatre Company’s original name, the Union Theatre Repertory Company).

For decades, the Footbridge Theatre was host to both industry heavyweights and budding talent from across the arts sectors, before being converted to a lecture hall in 2006. Now, it’s back.

Hitting the ground running

The theatre opened with productions from the Sydney University Musical Society, including Claudio Monteverdi’s ballet Il Ballo Delle Ingrate and Henry Purcell’s opera Dido and Aeneas.

Also on show was the Sydney University Theatre Council’s Serjeant Musgrave’s Dance, starring John Bell in the title role. Ken Horler, with whom Bell founded the famous Nimrod Theatre a decade later, co-directed the play with May Hollinworth, who ran the university’s Dramatic Society in the 1920s and ’30s. The production also featured John Gaden, Bob Ellis, Bruce Beresford, Richard Brennan and Mungo MacCallum.

The following year, Horler directed Coriolanus, with Bell in the title role and Gaden and Arthur Dignam in the cast.

Horler would go on to direct the first Australian production of Bertolt Brecht’s Mother Courage in 1963. The cast included Germaine Greer as Mother Courage, Peter Carroll and Ron Blair.

Bell also acted in and directed a number of shows in the following years. He returned again in the early 1990s to stage a series of productions with his fledgling Bell Shakespeare company.

A smidge of controversy

The university students of the 1960s had been delighted to have their “own” venue after years of makeshift spaces. They produced some adventurous – as well as some scandalous – works.

When the Dramatic Society staged its Revue of the Absurd in 1963, it included a controversial film by the then-nascent filmmakers Bruce Beresford and Albie Thoms. It Droppeth as the Gentle Rain depicted a cocktail party coming to a sticky end as shit rained down from the sky.

The film was promptly banned. This ban was reinstated the following year when Beresford and Thoms sought to show it at a gala commemorating the Dramatic Society’s 75th birthday.

Student revues were a popular feature of the theatre in its early years. One of these was the 1964 revue called Jump, which starred Colin Anderson, Germaine Greer, John Gaden and Paul Thom.

The Union Repertory Theatre Company was short-lived, collapsing within 12 months of its launch in 1961.

Also, ironically, the Footbridge was too expensive for students to hire often. Nonetheless, it was still a launching pad for those involved in student theatre, including Henry Szeps (who later acted in the 1984–94 series Mother and Son), Jack Thompson, who played Claudius in a production of Hamlet (1969), and Neil Armfield in Much Ado About Nothing (1974).

Fellow student actor and director David Marr would later acknowledge Armfield’s genius as a director, while diplomatically adding “acting was not his strength”.

What’s in a name?

The Union Theatre was a venue for hire throughout the 1970s, with student theatre, concerts, music theatre, French language theatre and other genres sporadically staged. In 1981, it was renamed the Footbridge Theatre (after a footbridge that was constructed over Parramatta Road in 1972).

For two decades from the mid-1980s, the Gordon Frost Organisation leased the theatre to present a number of popular commercial productions.

It also rented the theatre to other companies, including Bell Shakespeare, the Sydney Theatre Company, Ensemble Theatre and Sydney Festival, which programmed outstanding international works such as the Irish Druid Theatre’s 1998 production of The Leenane Trilogy.

The 1990s also saw students back onstage in annual faculty revues.

The next act begins

A squeeze on space at the university led to Footbridge’s conversion to a lecture theatre in 2006. Following extensive renovations, the now 300-seat theatre is opening once again, with Stephen Sondheim’s Into the Woods.

The university’s Dramatic Society first produced Into the Woods in the early 2000s (starring Virginia Gay). The Sydney University Musical Theatre Ensemble (MUSE) staged it again in 2011.

This time around the production is showcasing the talents of the inaugural cohort of music theatre students from the university’s Conservatorium of Music.

Just as it was for the “Johns” (Bell and Gaden) who, in the early 1960s, took their first steps as student actors into their future careers – and are still going strong six decades later – campus theatres remain vitally important for students finding their feet as the artists of the future.

Now, in a new decade and with a new generation of students, it’s time to go into the woods again.

Laura Ginters and Robyn Dalton co-authored a history of drama activities at the University of Sydney, The Ripples Before The New Wave 1957-1963 (2018). The authors interviewed many of the student actors mentioned here for that book.

– ref. Sydney’s beloved Footbridge Theatre launched some of our biggest stars. After nearly 20 years, it’s making a grand return – https://theconversation.com/sydneys-beloved-footbridge-theatre-launched-some-of-our-biggest-stars-after-nearly-20-years-its-making-a-grand-return-241561

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ari Mattes, Lecturer in Communications and Media, University of Notre Dame Australia

Investing in film and TV productions is a risky venture. Even the best directors and producers are just a flop away from ruining their careers.

So if a company owns the intellectual property to a popular material, or if that material enters the public domain, these companies – risk-averse entities, to be sure – will hastily retread their tyres for another lap of the track. This is partly why you’ll see well-worn stories from your childhood told over and over onscreen, even now.

But if the new version is too similar to the old, people will cynically roll their eyes. Enter Disney, which has perfected the strategy over the past few decades of retelling the same stories from different characters’ perspectives – a gambit that seems to strike people as inherently interesting.

Maleficent, for example, is Sleeping Beauty from the perspective of the evil queen. Although this kind of fairytale revisionism goes back to Angela Carter’s best-selling feminist fiction, Disney has, more than any other corporation, become an expert at co-opting social movements in pursuit of profits.

The latest revisionist work set to be distributed by Disney+ was Nautilus. The series filters the story of Jules Verne’s inimitable maritime adventure novel 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea through the lens of Captain Nemo, framed as a prequel to the original.

The fact that Disney+ dropped Nautilus before its release (it has been picked up by Prime in the UK and Ireland and Stan in Australia) immediately stoked my interest. This is particularly notable because, with a budget of A$300 million, it’s the most expensive series ever made in Australia (filmed mainly on the Gold Coast).

Alas, after restlessly sitting through all ten episodes, I understand Disney’s decision.

Diluting a powerful message

Where Verne’s novel (and to a lesser extent, the 1954 Disney live action film) effortlessly creates an authentic world, which is absolutely critical to the effectiveness of any fantasy work, Nautilus seems painfully contrived from its opening.

It’s the kind of show where all the British soldiers and East India Company men speak in toffee accents and spout horrifically ruthless commands between sips of tea.

The Nautilus’ crew is made up of a miscellany of virtuous victims of the company (and thus of the British empire): a wealthy British woman being forced into an arranged marriage, an old Chinese worker, a Māori cook, a trader from Zanzibar and ex‑slave Indians.

The characters frequently pontificate about the value of freedom, the evils of slavery and the glory of the environment. In one particularly ludicrous scene early on, Nemo jumps onto a whale’s back to remove a harpoon.

In the novel, Nemo’s romantic alienation perfectly complements his maniacal drive, interspersed with Verne’s faux-scientific descriptions of the submarine, giant squid and other objects.

Similarly, here, Nemo is presented as being far from mercenary; hounded to the north seas by the British, he’s seeking treasure in order to bring the company down. But lead Shazad Latif’s delivery is monotonous and strained, as though even he doesn’t buy it.

The idea that this is some kind of “fresh” (read “politically correct”) re‑imagining of the world of the novel is strange in the first place, given the original story (although narrated by Professor Aronnax) is already closely anchored to Nemo’s point of view.

Verne clearly presents Nemo as a kind of eco-warrior responding to the brutalities of colonialism. If anything, the original message is diluted in this adaptation as it implies Nemo’s quest is mainly personal – that he simply wants vengeance for what the company did to his family – rather than political.

At the same time, I sense the creators are going for some kind of psychological realism by painfully spelling out that Nemo had bad things done to him by the British. But this didacticism causes the spirit of adventure to suffer, so we’re left with something both silly and not particularly exciting.

A big fish isn’t always a good fish

The show’s production design and cinematography (some of the most important components in this kind of adventure epic) seem flat, too. The sets, though colourful, look decidedly artificial. The synthesis of CGI elements with filmed footage is far from smooth.

And the odd colour grade makes the characters’ skin look hyper-artificial. This was surely the intention, but why? It is distracting in every closeup.

Not to single out any particular department, every aspect of the production seems dialled in, including the score, which sounds like something hastily composed using AI software.

Of course, one could talk about the production’s benefits to the Australian industry, but this seems like a hapless argument if the work is no good. How many low-budget films could have been made with $300 million? 100? 150? Those would have also invested money in the industry, while developing local talent.

Not camp enough, yet not careful enough

If it were camper, Nautilus could have acquired the cult value of a great cinematic fiasco such as Renny Harlin’s 1995 film Cutthroat Island. All the actors seem to be trying hard, and the writers clearly laboured away at the story.

Perhaps this is the problem. Like so many new commercial works, Nautilus tries so hard to please everyone it ends up pleasing no one. The wider the appeal, the greater the risk mitigation, apparently.

But given it actually tries to embed the story in a sense of history, its sins seem greater than mere televisual boredom for the viewer. The series presents a monolithic and simplistic image of the way colonialism and capitalism are intertwined.

At best, this is naïve – one could argue, “who cares, it’s just a silly fantasy series”. At worst, however, it is actively destructive of historical consciousness. And that’s not smooth sailing.

Ari Mattes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. At $300m, Jules Verne-inspired Nautilus is the most expensive Australian-made show. But Disney+ was right to dump it – https://theconversation.com/at-300m-jules-verne-inspired-nautilus-is-the-most-expensive-australian-made-show-but-disney-was-right-to-dump-it-241583

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Blair Aitken, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Psychopharmacology, Swinburne University of Technology

You had a great night out, but the next morning, anxiety hits: your heart races, and you replay every conversation from the night before in your head. This feeling, known as hangover anxiety or “hangxiety”, affects around 22% of social drinkers.

While for some people, it’s mild nerves, for others, it’s a wave of anxiety that feels impossible to ride out. The “Sunday scaries” may make you feel panicked, filled with dread and unable to relax.

Hangover anxiety can make even simple tasks feel overwhelming. Here’s why it happens, and what you can do about it.

What does alcohol do to our brains?

A hangover is the body’s way of recovering after drinking alcohol, bringing with it a range of symptoms.

Dehydration and disrupted sleep play a large part in the pounding headaches and nausea many of us know too well after a big night out. But hangovers aren’t just physical – there’s a strong mental side too.

Alcohol is a nervous system depressant, meaning it alters how certain chemical messengers (or neurotransmitters) behave in the brain. Alcohol relaxes you by increasing gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA), the neurotransmitter that makes you feel calm and lowers inhibitions. It decreases glutamate and this also slows down your thoughts and helps ease you into a more relaxed state.

Together, this interaction affects your mood, emotions and alertness. This is why when we drink, we often feel more sociable, carefree and willing to let our guard down.

As the effects of the alcohol wear off, your brain works to rebalance these chemicals by reducing GABA and increasing glutamate. This shift has the opposite effect of the night before, causing your brain to become more excitable and overstimulated, which can lead to feelings of anxiety.

So why do some people get hangxiety, while others don’t? There isn’t one clear answer to this question, as several factors can play a role in whether someone experiences hangover-related anxiety.

Genes play a role

For some, a hangover is simply a matter of how much they drank or how hydrated they are. But genetics may also play a significant role. Research shows your genes can explain almost half the reason why you wake up feeling hungover, while your friend might not.

Because genes influence how your body processes alcohol, some people may experience more intense hangover symptoms, such as headaches or dehydration. These stronger physical effects can, in turn, trigger anxiety during a hangover, making you more susceptible to “hangxiety.”

Do you remember what you said last night?

But one of the most common culprits for feeling anxious the next day is often what you do while drinking.

Let’s say you’ve had a big night out and you can’t quite recall a conversation you had or something you did. Maybe you acted in ways that you now regret or feel embarrassed about. You might fixate on these thoughts and get trapped in a cycle of worrying and rumination. This cycle can be hard to break and can make you feel more anxious.

Research suggests people who already struggle with feelings of anxiety in their day-to-day lives are especially vulnerable to hangxiety.

Some people drink alcohol to unwind after a stressful day or to make themselves feel more comfortable at social events. This often leads to heavier consumption, which can make hangover symptoms more severe. It can also begin a cycle of drinking to feel better, making hangxiety even harder to escape.

Preventing hangover anxiety

The best way to prevent hangxiety is to limit your alcohol consumption. The Australian guidelines recommend having no more than ten standard drinks per week and no more than four standard drinks on any one day.

Generally, the more you drink, the more intense your hangover symptoms might be, and the worse you are likely to feel.

Mixing other drugs with alcohol can also increase the risk of hangxiety. This is especially true for party drugs, such as ecstasy or MDMA, that give you a temporary high but can lead to anxiety as they wear off and you are coming down.

If you do wake up feeling anxious:

• focus on the physical recovery to help ease the mental strain

• drink plenty of water, eat a light meal and allow yourself time to rest

• try mindfulness meditation or deep breathing exercises, especially if anxiety keeps you awake or your mind races

• consider journalling. This can help re-frame anxious thoughts, put your feelings into perspective and encourage self-compassion

• talk to a close friend. This can provide a safe space to express concerns and feel less isolated.

Hangxiety is an unwelcome guest after a night out. Understanding why hangxiety happens – and how you can manage it – can make the morning after a little less daunting, and help keep those anxious thoughts at bay.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why do I get so anxious after drinking? Here’s the science behind ‘hangxiety’ – https://theconversation.com/why-do-i-get-so-anxious-after-drinking-heres-the-science-behind-hangxiety-240991

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonathan Waters, Professor of Zoology, University of Otago

As we continue to change the planet, scientists are worried we might also be altering the evolutionary trajectories of the species that live alongside us, perhaps even including some irreversible shifts.

Certainly, the evidence for change is everywhere. As the planet warms, species’ ranges are shifting and their life cycles are changing. As we harvest the largest fish in the ocean, the species affected are now maturing at smaller sizes.

But are these shifts we observe in wild populations underpinned by genetic changes (mutations in the DNA) or are they simply flexible responses to environmental change? If the changes are genetic, how are they happening?

So far, researchers have observed fewer clear-cut examples of human-induced evolution in the wild than one might imagine. But our new study may provide a new “textbook” case of human-driven evolution in wild insects.

Our findings are centred on an intriguing case of “mimicry” from New Zealand, in which a harmless insect has evolved to mimic the warning colours of a highly toxic species.

Forest removal drives colour shift

Convincingly demonstrating “evolution in action” involves finding the agents of natural selection (environmental factors driving the change) and discovering the genetic mechanism.

Until now, the peppered moth was the “classic” example of human-driven evolution. Dark-coloured specimens of the moth suddenly appeared during the 19th century. It was a likely response to industrial pollution which meant light-coloured individuals were no longer blending in to the increasingly sooty British environment. Despite its broad appeal, some aspects of even this famous case have been criticised as unclear and anecdotal.

We worked on stoneflies and the impact of deforestation.

The black stonefly Austroperla lives in forests. It produces cyanide to deter potential predators, and to advertise its toxicity this species has high-contrast black, white and yellow markings, reminiscent of wasp colouration.

The non-toxic Zelandoperla stonefly has evolved astonishingly similar warning colouration, apparently to trick predators (forest birds) into assuming that it, too, is toxic. The intricate and unique ecological interactions between these insects and their predators have apparently evolved together over millions of years.

Where do humans come into this story? Aotearoa New Zealand was the last major landmass to be colonised by people. In many places the human impacts on its ecosystems have been devastating.

In addition to species extinctions, New Zealand has lost much of its original native forest cover in just a few centuries. This deforestation has wiped out countless populations of forest birds, along with the poisonous, forest-dependent Austroperla.

Our study reveals this widespread deforestation has also proven a game changer for the stonefly “mimic”. As its predators and the poisonous species it mimics have vanished from many regions, there is no longer much point in displaying warning colouration.

In an astonishing about-turn, Zelandoperla populations from deforested habitats have quickly lost their spectacular “mimic” colouration. It turns out that the production of this intricate colouration was costly, and when no longer essential, evolution rapidly removed it – in a case of “use it or lose it”.

Genetic change

In our study, we compared insect populations across several parts of the South Island. We found a remarkably consistent picture. The removal of forest has driven similar colour shifts across different deforested regions.

The finding that evolutionary change can be “predictable” offers hope that scientists can use evolutionary theory to predict future biodiversity shifts.

How do we know birds have played a key role in this rapid colour change? By placing stonefly models of different colours in a variety of habitats, we were able to demonstrate that birds only avoid attacking stoneflies with the “warning” colouration when they are in forests.

Another challenge was to show that this colour change represents evolution at the DNA level rather than a flexible response to environmental change. We looked at genetic variation across the Zelandoperla genome and found that just a single gene – ebony – is almost completely responsible for this colour evolution.

Our study also reveals the pace of evolutionary change. By comparing regions deforested soon after human arrival (for example Central Otago, which was deforested around 600 to 700 years ago) with those cleared much more recently (Otago Peninsula, 150 years ago), we show that evolution has proceeded steadily yet inexorably over this human timeframe.

On the positive side, the finding that at least some of our native species can adapt in the face of rapid environmental change suggests ongoing resilience of our native biodiversity. However, our results also highlight how quickly the intricate interactions that have evolved among native species over millennia can be lost from disturbed ecosystems.

These new findings raise tantalising questions about the potential to reverse the negative impacts of deforestation on our native biodiversity. In particular, our increasing focus on reforestation and ecological restoration provides hope for restoring the complex ecosystems we have inherited.

Jonathan Waters receives funding from the RSNZ Marsden Fund.

Graham McCulloch receives funding from the RSNZ Marsden Fund

– ref. Stoneflies change colour in response to deforestation, suggesting humans can alter evolution – new research – https://theconversation.com/stoneflies-change-colour-in-response-to-deforestation-suggesting-humans-can-alter-evolution-new-research-242008