Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wanning Sun, Professor of Media and Cultural Studies, University of Technology Sydney

Wen Li, a graduate student living in Brisbane, ran for the seat of Mansfield as a Greens candidate in the recent Queensland election. Li promoted his policies on Xiaohongshu, one of the most popular Chinese social media platforms. When he lost, he posted a message on the platform announcing his desire to run in the next federal election.

Responses were mixed. Some were supportive, others downright hostile.

Someone said, “Greens are monsters”, to which Li replied, “I disagree but I respect your opinion”. Another user said, “You represent Greens? Well, I’m out of here”, to which Li replied, “No worries, 3,000 people voted for me”. All of the conversations were in Chinese.

Politicians across the political spectrum are now using Xiaohongshu to connect with Chinese-Australian voters. In fact, it’s replacing WeChat as the preferred Chinese platform for some. So, what exactly is it?

Red’s Chinese business model

Xiaohongshu means “little red book” in Mandarin (it’s often referred to as Red for short). Some users also call it “small sweet potato”, which is pronounced the same in Mandarin but with different tones.

Red was started in 2013 by two young entrepreneurs in Shanghai who wanted to create a shopping guide platform catering mainly to young women. The platform quickly gained a phenomenal user base – it currently has 218 million monthly active users, including around 700,000 in Australia. It mostly features posts about cooking, fashion, shopping, travelling, health and everyday daily life.

There are now even some suggestions that Red is replacing Baidu, the Chinese equivalent of Google.

Like WeChat, the other popular Chinese messaging app, Red is wholly Chinese-owned. Tech giants Tencent (WeChat’s owner) and Alibaba (AliPay’s owner) are both shareholders.

WeChat has adopted a “one app, two systems” policy, which means it directs its censorship efforts only to domestically registered users on Weixin (the China-focused version of WeChat).

Unlike WeChat, Red is subject to one overarching censorship mechanism. Acutely aware of this, political candidates in Australia mostly focus on issues that are of interest to Chinese-Australian communities and avoid posting material that would be deemed “undesirable information” by the platform.

Who’s on it?

Keen to win back Chinese-Australian voters, Liberal MPs are taking to Red with enthusiasm. Keith Wolahan, the incumbent MP for Menzies in Victoria, has a huge following on Red. Around 27% of his electorate are people of Chinese origin. Jess Wilson (Kew) and Michael Sukkar (Deakin) are also on the platform.

Interestingly, Liberal MP Jason Wood (La Trobe, Victoria), who was accused of fear-mongering with his comments about Asian food during the COVID-19 pandemic, makes a point of saying in his Red bio that he’s married to a woman from Hong Kong.

Labor MPs such as Sam Lim (Tangney, WA), Sally Sitou (Reid, NSW), Carina Garland (Chisholm, Victoria), Jerome Laxale (Bennelong, NSW) were also early adopters of Red. All four displaced Liberals at the last election, in part due to the Liberals’ more hawkish stand on China.

Scott Yung, a Chinese-Australian Liberal candidate for Bennelong, has been vying for voters’ attention on Red in an attempt to wrestle the seat back from Labor at the next election.

Teal MPs such as Monique Ryan (Kooyong, Victoria) are also actively posting videos on Red. As the federal election draws closer, we can expect to see more candidates doing likewise.

How Red works

Red functions similarly to Instagram – users can post photos or videos and comment on other people’s posts. Politicians regularly upload short videos of themselves speaking directly to Chinese voters on issues that might concern them. When asked why he chooses Red instead of WeChat as a platform for campaigning, Wen Li’s answer is simple: “More open discussion. More influence.”

Non-Chinese-speaking politicians seem to find it much easier to navigate than WeChat. While any Australian candidate can create a WeChat account, their capacity to directly target Chinese voters is somewhat limited. To attract followers, you need to send a request and be accepted as someone’s “friend”.

And to become a member of a WeChat group, you need to be invited. How diverse and vigorous the discussions are depends on the membership of the group. The semi-private nature of WeChat groups means they often become echo chambers.

This is not to say Red is as easy to navigate as Instagram, though. Growing a support base on Red can take time and require language proficiency, cultural knowledge and technical know-how. Most English-speaking politicians employ Chinese-speaking assistants who are familiar with the platform functions and user practices and can translate English content into Chinese.

These obstacles are less of an issue for Chinese-speaking candidates who already have substantial followers.

Engagement outweighs any downsides

There is evidence of misinformation and disinformation on both WeChat and Red.

Commentators have also pointed out the risk of politicians “narrow-casting” to Chinese-Australian voters when they speak to Chinese voters on Chinese platforms in order to avoid the attention of the broader electorate, who may see them as too pro-China.

Despite these concerns, both platforms are useful spaces for Chinese-speaking voters to engage with politics. They can use the platforms to find out where to register as voters, when to vote, and how to ensure their vote is valid – an important question for non-English-speaking voters.

Wen Li gained quite a lot of new followers by posting a message on Red explaining how preferential voting works.

Encouraging political participation is not just about informing voters. It’s also about dialogue and persuasion, exchanging ideas and opinions. Red offers a more open space than WeChat for competing ideas to be heard. This means voters are more likely to be exposed to different opinions, which is healthy for democracy.

Wanning Sun does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why Australian politicians are flocking to ‘Little Red Book’ to engage with Chinese voters – https://theconversation.com/why-australian-politicians-are-flocking-to-little-red-book-to-engage-with-chinese-voters-245360

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Megan Prictor, Senior Lecturer in Law, The University of Melbourne

You’re at a doctor’s appointment where you are told you might have a serious illness. You will have to undergo several different tests to get a firm diagnosis. The treatment regime is complicated.

When you leave the appointment, you are worried and you feel overwhelmed with information. You realise you’re already starting to forget most of what the doctor said.

This experience is very common. Research shows people often forget, or mis-remember, what they are told during medical appointments.

One approach to addressing this problem is recording a medical appointment to play back later or share with others. Our recent research looked at how common this is in Australia, and how people use the recordings they’ve made.

How recording might help

Research exploring what happens when patients are given recordings of medical appointments has shown significant benefits. The practice helps patients recall and understand their consultation and gives them greater satisfaction in their care.

Studies looking at consultation recordings at selected Australian hospitals have found recording also improves patients’ sense of control.

What we haven’t known so clearly is whether patients are actually making recordings in real life. And if so, why? Are they doing it openly or in secret? And what do they think about sharing these recordings with other people?

What we learned

We ran an online survey of Australian adults in mid-2022, asking them these sorts of questions.

Of 236 people who completed the survey, 71% said they would consider recording a doctor’s visit. Some 26% had openly done so (that is, they’d recorded a medical consultation with permission from the clinician).

Their reasons included wanting to keep track of important medical information, and listen again to improve their understanding. As one person told us:

With a cancer diagnosis there is a lot of information to take onboard and process. You can feel rushed and not have time to take notes.

Another recorded to help manage living with disability:

I have an acquired brain injury which impacts memory and was not able to take anyone with me. I am also hearing-impaired so use a transcription app to ‘read’ what is being said when the other person is wearing a mask and I am unable to lip read.

Covert recording (recording without asking or telling the doctor) was also quite common – 22% of people in our survey had done this, or knew someone who had.

Mostly, people recorded in secret because they worried their doctor might say no if they asked permission (we know this does happen).

While some people felt uncomfortable about asking, others recorded covertly because they had concerns about the advice and care they were receiving, and wanted a second opinion.

Whether people recorded with or without permission, they generally valued being able to record a consultation, especially when they were vulnerable (for example, when they were attending appointments alone or receiving difficult news).

Sharing recordings

Patients described sharing their recordings only with trusted others, such as family or friends involved in their care, or other members of their health-care team such as their GP, disability support worker, or therapist.

Previous research has shown that while many health professionals support recording, others may feel uncomfortable about being recorded because they worry about the recording being posted on social media, or used in other potentially harmful ways beyond their control.

However, our study found patients are strongly opposed to sharing recordings more widely, such as on social media. It was seen as a significant breach of trust in the health professional-patient relationship. One person said:

To do so would be very unethical […] What is shared can very easily be misconstrued, misrepresented.

Patients equally did not want to share their own personal health information on the internet.

Is recording actually allowed?

Making a recording of a private conversation, whether audio or video, is governed by the law. In Australia, the law varies between different states and territories.

In several jurisdictions (Victoria, Queensland, the Northern Territory, New South Wales, the Australian Capital Territory and Tasmania), patients don’t need permission if the recording is only for their own use. But in South Australia and Western Australia, recording without permission could result in a fine or jail term.

Regardless of the law, asking for someone’s OK to record them is usually the best option.

Just over half (56%) of our respondents wanted their clinic to allow recording, ideally establishing relevant policy and guidelines.

A few health services are moving towards supporting recording, recognising it can be both lawful and beneficial. However we’ve found most services pay little attention to this issue.

Some limitations

Our survey was only available in English, so it didn’t capture the experiences of people in diverse communities. But previous research has found this group can particularly benefit from recording medical consultations.

We also think recording may not happen as often as our results suggest. We recruited participants through social media and health consumer networks, and people who answered the survey probably already had an interest in the topic.

Still, the results are a useful indication that people in Australia do sometimes record their visits to the doctor, and would like their health services to support them to be able to.

What we found also reflects the picture elsewhere. One study in the United Kingdom found 15% of participants had recorded a doctor covertly. A study in the United States found almost 19% of people had recorded a consultation (3% covertly and 16% with permission).

Our study supports the idea that being able to record medical consultations improves patients’ recollection and understanding of what the clinician has told them. Policies and practices that prevent recording, without good reason, should be amended to support recording, with clear guardrails around consent and disclosure.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Many Australians are recording their visits to the doctor – some without permission – https://theconversation.com/many-australians-are-recording-their-visits-to-the-doctor-some-without-permission-244637

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonathan Heard, Research Fellow, Educational Monitoring and Research Division, Australian Council for Educational Research

As school wraps up, families around Australia will be receiving their children’s school reports for the second half of 2024.

This is the key way schools communicate with parents about how students are going. But parents can find them difficult to understand.

Why is this? And what are some questions you could ask your child’s teacher before the end of the year to understand how they are really going?

Why are reports important?

School reports are important because they help parents stay engaged in their child’s schooling.

They help parents to set and maintain high expectations, talk to their child about school and support and encourage their learning. All of these strategies have been shown to help students do better academically.

So the quality and accessibility of information in reports is very important for students’ education.

School reports in Australia

In Australia, education experts have argued school reports are difficult for parents to understand. In 2019 research, colleagues and I also found parents are confused by grades and rating scales in reports that do not clearly explain the “standard” or reference that underpins them.

They can also find teacher comments in reports vague and difficult to meaningfully interpret. Meanwhile, the use of grades in reports as the main indicator of a child’s performance can make it hard to tell if there has been any growth in learning.

So parents can be left with an inaccurate or unreliable account of how their child is performing, and inadequate information with which to take action if their child is struggling.

We can do better

The Australian Council for Educational Research has designed a prototype “digital student report” to communicate students’ learning in more satisfying ways for parents (without adding to teacher’s workloads).

It assumes a lot of content could be auto-populated from assessment data already collected and stored on a school’s learning management system. This would enable parents to access information at varying levels of detail (according to their need or interest) and monitor learning growth over time.

We have run focus-groups on the prototype with 47 parents, students, teachers and school leaders across three schools. The results of this small-scale research project will be published early next year.

How can you follow up with school?

In the meantime, if parents have read the explanatory detail in their child’s report and still have questions, they should feel confident to talk to their child’s teacher before the end of the year.

Here are some questions you could ask, based on what kind of report you school might use.

If grades are used

• how are grades arrived at? Are they an average of performance across a set of tasks? If so, which tasks are used in this calculation, and how were they weighted?

• are grades based on how well children meet curriculum outcomes (these are also called “criterion-referenced”) or how they compare to their peers (“norm-referenced”)

• should grades be interpreted as indicating whether your child is working at, above or below the curriculum-expected standard? In most states, grades reflect overall performance on learning tasks aligned with the curriculum standard for the child’s age group. This assumes – perhaps incorrectly – all children are working at the year-level standard to varying levels of proficiency, represented by letter grades A to E.

If performance labels are used

• ask what constitutes “developing” or “above expectations” or “satisfactory” or whichever terms are used, (if the school has not defined these terms already in the report)

• can worded performance descriptors be “translated back” into the A to E scale, and if not, why not? While legislation requires schools use a five-point scale such as the A to E scale “or equivalent” to report student achievement up to Year 10, not all performance labels used in reports are intended to meet this purpose.

If descriptive comments are used

• what does it mean if your child “has” done this or “can” demonstrate that – does this mean they are operating at, above or below the curriculum-expected level?

• how well have they done these things? What haven’t they demonstrated, and is this because they were unable to, or was it because those skills and knowledge were not assessed during the reporting period?

• do the comments that indicate areas for improvement constitute general advice, or are they specifically targeted to reflect your child’s next steps for learning?

Ask about progress

Regardless of how well your child is performing, ask the teacher if – in their view – your child is making an expected or acceptable level of progress, and what evidence tells them this.

Progress is different to performance – it indicates the growth your child is making in their learning over time, regardless of their starting point and regardless of their grades. It is the difference in knowledge, skill, sophistication or proficiency a child could previously demonstrate versus what they can demonstrate now.

While performance has traditionally been the focus of student reports, it is important to understand if your child is making progress in their learning. This ensures they are developing in their skills and knowledge and being appropriately challenged to meet their potential.

Jonathan Heard does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Don’t understand your child’s report? Ask their teacher these questions instead – https://theconversation.com/dont-understand-your-childs-report-ask-their-teacher-these-questions-instead-245648

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Moore, Emeritus Professor, Faculty of Health, Arts and Design, Swinburne University of Technology

This article is part of The Conversation’s Retirement series where experts examine issues including how much money we need to retire, retiring with debt, the psychological impact of retiring and the benefits of getting financial advice.

The age at which Australians can receive the pension has risen to 67, meaning many of us are working longer. But the length of time we are expected to spend retired has also risen, because we are living longer.

It’s not unreasonable to expect the retirement phase will last about 20 years, perhaps longer. How should people approach it?

Are retirees satisfied?

In 2018 a colleague and I surveyed nearly 1,000 Australians aged 55 and over who described themselves as fully or substantially retired from the workforce.

Most were very satisfied (51%) or satisfied (35%) with their retirement, and the majority rated their post-retirement life satisfaction as better (47%) or the same (39%) as it had been when they were working.

What do retirees like most?

Retirees in our survey talked about freedom. Freedom to sleep in, travel, catch up with friends and family, renovate, garden, get fit, try art classes, learn Italian and if they can afford it, spend up big.

But even freedom can have a downside. One woman from the survey? said after four months she got sick of it, asking “Is this all there is?”

So what did retirees miss most? Money was a big issue for nearly 20%, and about one-third felt their financial position had worsened, even though the group had mainly worked in professional and white-collar jobs.

But the things they missed most were social – the opportunity to make new friends, to engage in new activities, and to feel useful. They said things like:

I miss the companionship of working in a team. Miss some of the social connections that I once enjoyed.

Work not only provides income and social contact, it also has the capacity to engender a sense of meaning and purpose. Some retirees commented specifically on this

I miss the sense of purpose. While it was hugely stressful, I felt useful. Now I keep feeling at a bit of a loss as if I should be doing something.

Identity loss

There’s also the issue of identity loss. Work provides us with status; it enhances our sense of self. Achievement of work goals can build confidence and self-esteem.

When we meet a new person, often the first question they ask is “what do you do for a living?” It can feel as though your work defines you as a person, rather than your many-faceted self.

Not surprisingly, our study respondents frequently commented on retirement as challenging their sense of identity.

The retirement journey

So it is important to remember retirement is not just an event, it’s a process.

In any major life transition, it’s necessary to adapt our roles and expectations. Even the most exciting life changes, such as becoming a parent or winning a lottery, involve psychological work.

We are likely to experience strong emotions, both positive and negative, as we experiment, fail, lose heart, try something else and eventually adjust to a new reality.

These adjustments might be greater for retirees who go from full-time work to full-time leisure, than for those who move gradually through part-time or casual work or who quickly take up new activities they’ve been planning for years.

Mark Cussen, a financial planner specialising in retirement, argues the retirement journey takes us through several psychological stages, including a honeymoon phase in which new retirees feel relieved as the constraints of working life are removed.

However, the initial sense of freedom loses its novelty value. Some retirees then go through a phase of disenchantment. Life can feel boring, lacking in purpose or weighed down by domestic duties and activities that do not challenge or bring joy.

The ‘best years of our lives’

The final phase is adaptation, involving a re-orientation of identity from worker to someone who finds meaning and purpose in a different set of activities.

This change usually involves renegotiating relationships with family and friends as well as experimenting with new activities, interests and friendship groups.

Over time, most retirees develop a new, non-work identity. New routines, different social worlds and re-imagined goals are established. Many describe these years as the best of their lives.

What makes a successful retirement?

Research assessing the strongest predictors of adjustment to and satisfaction with retirement is complex because there are so many potential variables to be measured and controlled.

But these are often distilled down to several key factors including physical health, finances, psychological health, leisure activities, and social integration.

Studies assessing gender difference in adjustment to retirement are equivocal, but somewhat dated. Nevertheless, many commentators agree women generally have fewer problems adapting socially.

Women tend to have stronger non-work networks, are more integrated into their communities and have a more multifaceted sense of identity than those men who define themselves largely in terms of their work.

However, the average woman is less financially prepared for retirement than a man as a result of taking time off work for children or other caring responsibilities. Women also dominate many of the lower paid jobs.

But for both sexes, studies indicate pre-retirement planning helps ensure a secure retirement.

Work out what’s important

Money isn’t everything. Lifestyle planning including post-retirement activities, new roles and interests,prioritising mental and physical health and maintaining your social contacts are also vital aspects of a workforce exit strategy.

How are you planning to stay mentally stimulated? What strategies do you have in place to manage stress and maintain good physical health? And what about friendships? Loneliness is being described as an “epidemic” among the elderly, especially those without a partner.

How will you build a new social life that may include but does not rely on former work colleagues? How will you negotiate a family life that keeps you connected without becoming a domestic slave?

A well-planned retirement

Retirement has the potential to be a wonderful phase of life in which it is possible to strengthen relationships and achieve goals that you didn’t have time for in your middle years when you were consolidating your career and home life.

It’s a time to live out some of your dreams, work through a bucket list perhaps, and have some fun as well as planning what sort of legacy you will leave for future generations.

What’s the secret? In short, plan your finances, maintain a healthy lifestyle, stay socially integrated, challenge yourself mentally, stay positive and be flexible.

Susan Moore has received funding from Swinburne University in the past.

– ref. ‘Is this all there is?’ Retirement can be a painful transition if we don’t adjust our thinking – https://theconversation.com/is-this-all-there-is-retirement-can-be-a-painful-transition-if-we-dont-adjust-our-thinking-241265

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chris Thompson, Lecturer in Theatre, Australian Catholic University

In the mid 1970s, Hoyts Cinema Centre in Bourke Street Melbourne (the first multi-screened cinema in Victoria) was my go-to place for new release movies.

In addition to three different screens, there was McClure’s Restaurant where on each table sat a black telephone with a direct line through to some “off-screen” waiter who took your order. The height of sophistication.

I would also pick up the latest copy of the Hoyts movie magazine filled with full page movie posters. A whole wall of my bedroom was devoted to these miniature movie-daybills, one of which featured an image of the Frankenstein castle flanked by Gene Wilder, his wild-eyed, wild-haired face all hysterical madness and Peter Boyle, his comic-horror, reanimated-corpse-face sublimely tipping his top hat.

“A Mel Brooks Film” it said and beneath that, in large letters seemingly carved from stone, the words Young Frankenstein.

The genius of Gene Wilder

A new Mel Brooks film was an exciting prospect. My parents took me to Blazing Saddles at the Dendy Brighton where an organist played a Wurlitzer rising from deep in the cinema’s bowels.

Back then, that Western parody was the funniest film I’d ever seen. So, with much anticipation, my friends and I rushed to Cinema Centre to see Young Frankenstein. It did not disappoint. Even as the credits rolled, we were quoting funny lines and describing funny scenes to each other, like we hadn’t all just seen it. That was 50 years ago.

Revisiting old favourite films can be fraught. What the teenager found funny in the 70s mightn’t hold true for his grown-up self. Contemporary sensibilities differ quite markedly over time.

Blazing Saddles is a good example. I tried rewatching it a while ago and had to turn off after 20 minutes. There was still plenty to make me laugh but its casual racism and sexism undercut that. So, why isn’t that the case with Young Fronk-en-shteen (as Frederick would say)?

For me, the answer is Gene Wilder.

Wilder worked with Brooks on The Producers (1967) and again on Blazing Saddles (1974), during which he started writing Young Frankenstein. Wilder wasn’t adapting Mary Shelley’s novel. This was an homage to James Whale’s cinema classics Frankenstein (1931) and Bride of Frankenstein (1935), retold through a parodic but ultimately respectful lens.

Wilder was new to screenwriting but Brooks already had a best original screenplay Oscar for The Producers, so Wilder asked Brooks to co-write and direct. Wilder’s one condition was that Brooks wouldn’t act in the film, ostensibly because he wanted him to focus on directing. I can’t help think Brooks’ broad, vulgar comedic acting would have changed the dynamic undercutting the genius of Wilder’s seemingly out-of-control performance that, in reality, is anything but.

Where I think Wilder’s sensibility differs from Brooks is exemplified by the Puttin’ on the Ritz song and dance scene. Brooks wanted to cut it for continuity reasons. Wilder insisted it stay. He knew what he was talking about. It’s arguably the funniest scene in the film.

A beautifully made film

Of course, some of it doesn’t stand up – breast and penis jokes, salacious double entendres – but they are far outweighed by its sharper, smarter humour delivered by a cast of comic actors at the top of their game: Marty Feldman, Teri Garr, Peter Boyle, Cloris Leachman, Madeline Kahn, Kenneth Mars and a surprising first crack at comedy by Wilder’s tennis partner, Gene Hackman.

Plus, it’s beautifully made.

Wilder’s desire to honour Whale’s films whilst poking fun at them is borne out by Brooks’ direction. It’s as though the ghost of Whale was behind the camera. The recreation of 1930s style horror filmmaking is elevated by the shadows and light of Gerald Hirschfeld’s glorious black and white cinematography.

The film was originally to be produced by Columbia Pictures who called off the deal when Brooks mentioned it would be shot in black and white. Columbia suggested using colour but Brooks and Wilder stuck to their guns. Twentieth Century Fox quickly capitalised on Columbia’s short sightedness.

Then there is William Tuttle’s inventive make up (that zipper on the side of the monster’s skull was a workaround to avoid copyright on the classic bolts through the neck) and the use of the original Frankenstein laboratory equipment provided by Kenneth Strickfaden (who held onto it after creating it for the 1931 film).

Of course, Brooks and Wilder weren’t the first to parody Frankenstein. First there was Abbott and Costello Meet Frankenstein (1948), but that and many other parody films like Airplane! (1980), The Naked Gun (1988) and Scary Movie (2000) are more about the gags than well-crafted narrative and character. That’s where Young Frankenstein excels, even if some gags are dated.

Brooks and Wilder were nominated for the best adapted screenplay Oscar but lost out to Godfather II. Nevertheless, it deserves its 50th birthday resurgence. Time Magazine counts it among its top 100 films in its list of the ten best films from each of the past ten decades – the only Brooks’ film to make the list!

But the proof of the pudding is in the rewatching. I did just that the other night, this time with my 19-year-old son. And just as it was 50 years ago, Young Frankenstein did not disappoint.

Chris Thompson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The sharp, smart humour of Mel Brooks’ Young Frankenstein – and Gene Wilder’s genius performance – still stands up after 50 years – https://theconversation.com/the-sharp-smart-humour-of-mel-brooks-young-frankenstein-and-gene-wilders-genius-performance-still-stands-up-after-50-years-243153

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Melek Cigdem-Bayram, Ronald Henderson Senior Research Fellow, The University of Melbourne

There are growing concerns about wealth inequality in Australia and what it means for people’s ability to get ahead.

For many, home ownership has become a pipe dream. Huge numbers of Australians now feel the cards are increasingly stacked against them.

Our recent working paper examined changes in absolute and relative wealth held by Australians, using data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey.

We examined trends in holdings across different asset classes between 2002 and 2018, also breaking down this data by age.

In absolute terms, Australia’s wealth gaps are large and growing. Between 2002 and 2018, the absolute wealth gap between the top 10% and the bottom 10% of households increased – from A$1.33 million to $2.19 million.

But if we look beneath the surface at relative measures, some groups – including the poorest households – have actually improved their standing on certain metrics.

For young people and middle Australia, however, it’s a sobering picture – especially when it comes to property ownership.

Read more:
How much do you need to retire? It’s probably a lot less than you think

How do we measure inequality?

First, it’s important to note that wealth and income are different measures of a person or household’s financial position.

Net wealth refers to a household’s stock of assets – for example, real property, superannuation or shares – minus its debts and liabilities.

Income, on the other hand, is a cash flow measure that can include wages from employment, taxes and transfers, and returns on investments.

We can express levels of wealth or income inequality using a measure called the Gini coefficient.

A Gini of 0 means total equality – everything is divided exactly equally among a population.

A Gini of 1, on the other hand, means total inequality, where one person has everything.

As you’d expect, countries in the real world fall somewhere in the middle.

Inequality stable – but it’s not so simple

Looking at this measure, Australia’s wealth inequality remained fairly stable over this period.

Between 2002 and 2018, Australia’s net wealth Gini increased only marginally, from 0.602 to 0.606, indicating that wealth inequality grew only slightly over this period.

But this overall picture masks trends that are visible if we zoom in on different parts of the wealth distribution.

The relative wealth gap between the richest and the poorest households in Australia – the net wealth of the top 10% divided by the net wealth of the bottom 10% – has actually fallen.

Between 2002 and 2018, the bottom 10% increased their wealth by 83%, albeit from a very low level.

This rate surpassed that of the top 10% of households, whose wealth grew by 65%. As a result, the relative share in total wealth of the poorest has increased.

Middle Australia losing ground

Why, then, do so many perceive wealth inequality to be much worse? The answer probably lies in what’s happening to middle Australia, and to the young relative to older generations.

Our analysis compared households in the middle of the wealth distribution – those with more assets than exactly half the population – to those at the top and the bottom.

We found the wealth of those in the middle grew more slowly than that of those in the top 10%, increasing the relative gap between them.

But this group has also become poorer relative to the bottom 10%, reducing the gap between the bottom and the middle.

Combined, this suggests a “disappearing”, or at least, a “shrinking” middle.

More financial wealth

Our analysis unpacked wealth trends further by comparing changes in holdings of financial assets (cash, shares, superannuation and so on) to holdings of real property assets.

Looking solely at financial wealth, both young people and the bottom 10% of households actually saw their relative share increase between 2002 and 2018.

For the bottom 10% of households, average financial wealth increased by more than 200% over this period.

This improvement might seem impressive, but it’s important to note that it starts from a very low base.

The average financial wealth of the bottom 10% of households grew from about $2,800 to just over $9,000.

The main driver of this improvement is the Superannuation Guarantee – a mandated contribution made by employers to their employees’ superannuation funds for use in retirement.

Overall, the Gini coefficient for financial assets actually fell over this period, indicating greater equality in financial wealth.

Increasing polarisation in property ownership

Looking solely at property ownership, however, tells a story of increasing polarisation. The Gini coefficient for net property wealth worsened between 2002 and 2018, rising from 0.57 to 0.65.

At the bottom, more poor households owned no dwellings in 2018 than in 2002. In contrast, at the top, more property-rich households owned multiple properties.

The richest 10% enjoyed a 69% growth in their housing equity, while for the poorest households, housing wealth remained at zero.

The middle group increased their housing wealth by around 30% over this period. But middle households exhibited worse outcomes in housing wealth than the rich, in both absolute and relative terms.

Home ownership a fading dream

This trend is consistent with other data showing a decline in home ownership among Australians.

The decline in ownership of real property has been dramatic among those aged 25 to 34. Many of this cohort may go on to become homeowners in the next stage of their lives, but a growing number will never own a home.

A retirement time bomb?

Housing and financial wealth are deeply intertwined. The financial wealth of most households is tied up in their superannuation.

Owning a home, on the other hand, has traditionally provided vital financial and living security for retirees, especially if they rely on the publicly funded age pension

This is why home ownership is sometimes described as the “fourth pillar” of Australia’s retirement system. Falling rates of home ownership should sound alarm bells.

Australia’s declining levels of home ownership date back to the 1980s. They mean a growing number of Australians are likely to reach their retirement years either as renters or highly mortgaged.

This presents a growing challenge for policymakers. There’s likely to be increasing demand for public support for those who have retired without owning a home, while an ageing population puts a strain on tax revenue.

Miranda Stewart receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Stephen Whelan receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute.

Gavin Wood and Melek Cigdem-Bayram do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Our analysis of wealth trends suggests Australia’s middle class may be ‘shrinking’ – https://theconversation.com/our-analysis-of-wealth-trends-suggests-australias-middle-class-may-be-shrinking-245140

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elizabeth Westrupp, Associate Professor in Psychology, Deakin University

For many children, Christmas and other festivities are a time of excitement and joy. But for those dealing with separation – whether their parents have split up or a loved one has died – it can be tough.

We often focus on being together during the holiday season. Here are some ideas to help children cope with being apart.

Rituals are important in family life

Annual celebrations – such as Christmas, Hanukkah, Passover, Diwali, Eid and Lunar New Year – can be magic for children.

The shared joy of decorating a tree, lighting candles, unwrapping gifts or singing songs nurtures creativity and imagination. These moments can create lasting memories and reinforce a sense of belonging.

Research shows family traditions are good for parent and child wellbeing, as well as helping us all enjoy the holidays more.

But research also suggests the true value of family rituals lies in who we share them with, not what they are.

So what does this mean for children who might not be able to celebrate with everyone they love?

Managing a range of feelings

Messaging around holiday celebrations often focuses on togetherness and close family time.

This can be painful or isolating for families coping with the loss of a loved one, physical distance, conflict between family members or separation between parents.

When our current circumstances don’t align with our expectations (or the idealised images shown in advertising) holidays might evoke feelings of loss or sadness.

For children, this time of year can be especially challenging. They may feel torn or guilty about splitting time between parents or anxious about missing out on moments with one side of the family.

These emotions can be hard for children to express. They may also worry about upsetting or disappointing their parents.

However, many separated families are able to create meaningful traditions that ensure children feel loved and supported, and which become treasured memories.

Here are five tips to help you and your child cope with separation during the holidays.

1. Plan ahead

If you’re separated, avoid any last-minute confusion by coordinating with the other parent and agreeing where the child will be spending time in the holidays well in advance.

Cooperative and supportive coparenting (where both parents are working together for the benefit of the child) leads to more positive outcomes for children.

It’s not always possible. But if you can, try to:

• agree to prioritise what’s best for your child. Keep conflict away from them and avoid speaking negatively about the other parent

• coordinate on gift-giving and avoid competing with each other

• work out how to stay connected with your child when you’re apart. You could chat over a video call, record a message or story for them or allow them to take something that reminds them of you (such as a photo, keepsake or piece of your clothing). If you’re with your child, try to be generous in facilitating these connections for the other parent.

2. Involve your children in planning

Sharing care arrangements with lots of advance warning means your child knows what to expect and has time to talk about any concerns.

Check in and allow them to express how they feel about any arrangements without judgement.

Try not to take the child’s preferences personally. Avoid adding pressure or inducing guilt (for example, “I miss you so much when you’re not with me” or “Your dad will be so disappointed if you don’t stay with him”).

3. Help them name emotions

If your child expresses they are missing one parent (or someone else they can’t be with), it’s important to validate those feelings. You can help them name their emotions, without making them feel like they have to choose between parents.

Instead, acknowledge feelings of worry, sadness or guilt. Let your child know it’s okay to miss one parent while still enjoying time with the other.

Reassure them that both parents love being with them and want them to have a wonderful time, no matter where they are.

4. Create new rituals

Rituals can be even more important for children in times of change or uncertainty – for example, if a child’s parents have recently split. They can provide a sense of predictability that fosters connection and stability.

If you can’t be together on the day, you could send a special gift along with a note. You may also be able to schedule a celebration on another day.

And if you are with your child, support them if they wish to write cards or create little gifts for other people they may be missing.

5. Look after yourself

Many adults find Christmas or other holiday celebrations stressful.

If you’re not able to be with your child or children, it may also bring up feelings of loneliness, sadness and grief.

Acknowledge your emotions and find ways to process these feelings (for example, talking with a friend, going for walks or seeking counselling).

Make plans for yourself while your child or children are away. Scheduling enjoyable self-care activities – such as spending time with friends or family, volunteering, or exploring new places – can help to ensure you have a positive holiday too.

Remember, taking care of yourself will also have flow on benefits for your child.

Elizabeth Westrupp receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council (GNT2019442). She is affiliated with the Parenting and Family Research Alliance, and is a registered clinical psychologist.

Christiane Kehoe is a co-author of the Tuning in to Kids and Tuning in to Teens parenting programs, and receives royalties from the sale of program manuals. Christiane works at Mindful, Centre for Training and Research in Developmental Health (Department of Psychiatry, University of Melbourne), where she is the Research Manager for Tuning in to Kids and Senior Training Co-ordinator and Trainer of the Tuning in to Kids suite of programs.

– ref. Christmas can be tricky for kids with separated parents. Here are 5 tips to help them cope – https://theconversation.com/christmas-can-be-tricky-for-kids-with-separated-parents-here-are-5-tips-to-help-them-cope-244653

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hassan Vally, Associate Professor, Epidemiology, Deakin University

Most of us have heard the phrase “correlation does not equal causation”. But understanding how scientists move beyond identifying correlations to establish causation remains a mystery to many.

Finding out what causes a particular outcome is often the primary goal of scientific research, especially in studies relating to our health.

We want to know if a certain factor – say, drinking wine or eating chocolate – will lead to better or worse health outcomes. That way, we can make more informed decisions about our health.

But how do scientists actually get those answers?

Correlation versus causation: the basics

It’s easy to find examples of correlations where two variables are linked, but there’s no causal relationship. For instance, there’s a correlation between chocolate consumption and the number of Nobel Prize winners per capita in a bunch of countries.

Does eating chocolate cause people to win Nobel Prizes? Of course not.

This correlation likely exists because chocolate consumption serves as a proxy for wealth. In turn, wealth relates to educational opportunities and funding for completing high-quality research that might lead to a Nobel Prize.

It’s not enough to just find a link between two things. Scientists need much more evidence before we can start to assume a causal relationship.

Building a case

In chemistry or physics, it’s often possible to conduct experiments under highly controlled conditions to understand how X affects Y. When it comes to human biology, it’s rarely so simple.

In most instances, to establish causality we use indirect evidence (more on that in a moment). It requires an approach called inductive reasoning – a process where scientists make generalisations based on the available evidence.

It’s a bit like how a prosecutor might build a criminal case based on circumstantial evidence. While a single piece of such evidence might not be persuasive on its own, as the pieces add up, they strengthen the case.

There’s one interesting contrast, however. In criminal cases, the stakes are incredibly high, and the threshold for proof is “beyond reasonable doubt”. In science, when we make the case for a causal relationship, it’s usually based “on the balance of probabilities”.

This lower threshold of proof reflects the fact scientists are happy to revise their beliefs if and when better evidence becomes available.

Types of indirect evidence of causation

The type of indirect evidence scientists use to infer causation can take different forms. These include:

1. Temporality

This is the only absolute requirement for a relationship to be causal. That is, an exposure must occur before the outcome for an exposure to cause an outcome.

As obvious as this appears, there can be situations where this isn’t clear cut. For example, there might be a long lag time between the two events. For example, 20–60 years can pass between exposure to asbestos fibres and development of mesothelioma, a type of cancer.

Or it might not be immediately obvious what is the exposure and what is the outcome: do sleep disorders lead to depression, or is disordered sleep a symptom of depression?

2. Strength of association

A strong association between two variables is generally considered suggestive of a causal relationship. That is, if one thing happening means another thing is likely to occur, we generally consider this good evidence for causality.

For example, studies showing that high consumption of alcohol is associated with liver damage demonstrate a strong effect. Therefore, they’re highly supportive of a causal relationship.

3. Consistency across studies

If various studies using different methods all yield the same or similar associations, this also supports the existence of a causal relationship.

We generally have more confidence in scientific findings when they can be replicated using different study approaches.

4. A plausible mechanism exists

Being able to demonstrate a mechanism that could explain the association between an exposure and outcome provides further support for a causal relationship.

For example, if lab or animal studies show how a substance damages cells, this would be supportive of a causal relationship between this substance and disease in people.

5. Dose-response relationship

Observing that higher exposures lead to stronger effects is considered highly supportive evidence for a causal relationship.

However, it’s important to note sometimes there’s a threshold effect when it comes to causation. That is, an exposure doesn’t cause disease until it reaches a particular level. This is generally true for infectious diseases, where a minimum infectious dose is required before a person is likely to get ill.

The power of randomised controlled trials

Indirect evidence usually plays an important role in inferring causality. But there’s one type of study that’s the gold standard for providing direct evidence of a causal relationship. It’s called a randomised controlled trial, or RCT.

In an RCT, participants are randomly assigned to either receive an intervention or to be a “control”. This ensures if you see a difference between the two groups, this can only be due to the effect of the intervention. It effectively proves there’s a causal relationship.

You can think of it as the equivalent of catching a criminal red-handed. Unfortunately, due to ethical and practical considerations, we don’t always have evidence from well-conducted RCTs.

For example, we don’t have RCT evidence that smoking causes lung cancer. The reason is that the strength of the indirect evidence supporting a causal relationship is so compelling, it would be unethical to do these studies.

Causality is complex – so beware of those promoting magic bullets

While it’s easy to assume causality works in a simple way – like flipping a switch to turn on a light – when it comes to our health it’s often complex, and involves multiple factors working together.

For instance, lifestyle, genes and environmental factors often all interact to determine whether a person develops a particular disease.

This complexity is another reason we need to be cautious when people offer a simple solution or magic bullet for improving your health. To achieve optimal health, you’ll need to do a variety of things. No single habit, superfood or supplement is the answer.

Hassan Vally does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. If ‘correlation doesn’t imply causation’, how do scientists figure out why things happen? – https://theconversation.com/if-correlation-doesnt-imply-causation-how-do-scientists-figure-out-why-things-happen-243487

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anastasia Powell, Professor of Family and Sexual Violence, RMIT University

Every day in Australia, thousands of people call a family violence crisis support line. Often, it’s someone experiencing family violence who fears for their safety and needs support to leave immediately.

These calls are made from shopping centre car parks, from the house of a trusted friend, from doctors’ offices and police stations. At the other end of the line, a family violence worker asks some questions to assess the risk, then a plan is made to support the victim to find a safe place to stay.

If they have supportive friends or family, or access to their own income, it can be easier to find safety. But for many victims of family violence, the control and isolation of the abuse means they have no such resources to draw on.

This is where victims might end up in crisis accommodation in a hotel. But while usually safer than their homes, these settings have flaws in meeting the needs of those fleeing violence.

Not enough specialist support

Nationally, women and children who are in physical danger will often spend several nights, if not weeks, in a funded hotel room.

There will be some vouchers for food and to buy the pyjamas, toothbrushes and other items that have usually been left behind. A case manager will phone, once a day, to check they have their basic needs met and to make a plan for their exit.

There are two problems with this system. The first is it’s an isolating and frightening experience – especially for people in a state of shock and trauma.

They can’t tell anyone where they are. They might have been told their phone is not safe and be waiting for a new one. There might be a full kitchen, but often it’s just a kitchenette – and they’re unable to cook the foods that might be familiar and comforting.

Women are often accompanied by children, sometimes babies and toddlers, who have no toys to console or occupy them.

There’s nowhere for kids to play. For adult victims, there’s no one to talk to. They’re fearful of the very real risk of danger, but what is going to happen next –or how long they’ll be waiting to find out – is unknown.

It’s during this time that some victims return to the person using violence. These decisions are complex and there can be many reasons.

But being stuck in a small and unsuitable environment, fearful, isolated and without a clear pathway forward for themselves and their children, is a major factor.

Not enough safe and affordable housing

The second problem, if they do remain in the crisis hotel room, is there are very few places to go next.

Even if they can afford private rental, it can take weeks or months before they can move in.

Sometimes victims of family violence can be supported to return to the family home safely, if there’s an intervention order in place and the person using violence has been excluded from the property.

But it is not always a safe option. And even then, it’s only for those who can afford to take over the rent or mortgage on their own. This too can take time to sort out.

If they cannot afford rent or return home safely, they might be placed on a waiting list for long-term family violence refuge accommodation.

But these waitlists can still be long. The longer it takes, the more difficult the confined and isolated hotel room becomes.

A project underway in Victoria is working to solve this situation, with promising results.

Finding sanctuary from violence

Sanctuary is a supported crisis accommodation that provides safety, rest and wraparound support for victims of family violence.

It’s run by Victoria’s statewide 24/7 family violence service, Safe Steps, and has state and federal funding.

It is a purpose-designed building with individual, self-contained units as well as common spaces such as a children’s playroom, outdoor playground, prayer room, consult room and a large open lounge area.

But Sanctuary is more than a place. It is a new model for supporting the safety of victim survivors.

I’ve observed the Sanctuary model in action over the past few months. It is staffed 24/7, so there is always someone on site to talk to.

Family violence case managers and support workers meet in-person with residents every day – sometimes several times a day – to progress plans, and provide practical help and emotional support.

Specialist children’s workers provide tailored family violence responses as well as educational, play and wellbeing activities.

On-site services such as a nurse, visiting lawyer, Services Australia representative and wellbeing programs mean residents aren’t stuck on lengthy waitlists to access these crucial services.

Most often, it takes a few weeks of this intensive support for residents to be ready for their next steps.

The 12-month evaluation shows the Sanctuary model enables safer outcomes for people in a family violence crisis than the current emergency hotels.

It shows that our family violence crisis housing system cannot just be about a physically safe place to stay. If we want to reduce the trauma associated with escaping violence, and create more sustainable pathways to safety, the Sanctuary model offers a much-needed transitional option.

What will remain with me from my time observing Sanctuary is the change I’ve seen in women and children escaping family violence from when they arrive to the time they leave.

It’s hard to measure this difference in a report, but these changes will stay with me. To be surrounded by people who support you, listen to you, work collaboratively with you and your children is life-changing. Victims are shown every day that they matter and that they deserve to be safe and respected.

I’ve seen that difference from the tears, anxiety and fear – to the confidence, strength and smiles – of women and children leaving Sanctuary who now have something that seemed impossible before. Not just a safe place to stay, but support and hope for a safer and happier future.

The National Sexual Assault, Family and Domestic Violence Counselling Line – 1800 RESPECT (1800 737 732) – is available 24 hours a day, seven days a week for any Australian who has experienced, or is at risk of, family and domestic violence and/or sexual assault.

Anastasia Powell receives funding from the Australian Research Council. Anastasia is also a director of Our Watch (Australia’s national organisation for the prevention of violence against women), and a member of the National Women’s Safety Alliance (NWSA). Anastasia teaches family violence specialist casework in the Graduate Certificate in Domestic & Family Violence at RMIT University.

– ref. Crisis accommodation is failing women fleeing domestic violence. Here’s how to fix it – https://theconversation.com/crisis-accommodation-is-failing-women-fleeing-domestic-violence-heres-how-to-fix-it-245743

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adam Simpson, Senior Lecturer, International Studies, University of South Australia

Just as the legal noose tightens on the leader of Myanmar’s military junta, with a request for an arrest warrant from the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, the Chinese government seems to be extending a hand of support.

In August, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Myanmar for his first meeting with Myanmar’s junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, since the February 2021 military coup plunged the country into civil war.

Then, last month, Min Aung Hlaing reciprocated with his first visit to China as head of the junta.

Reports in recent weeks have also indicated the Chinese government and Myanmar’s military junta are establishing a joint security company to protect Chinese projects and personnel from the civil war. This development is extremely concerning and does not bode well for any of the players involved.

The move comes after a string of significant military victories by the opposition, including the Three Brotherhood Alliance’s successful Operation 1027 over the past year. These rebel groups captured large swathes of territory near the China-Myanmar border, at least initially with China’s tacit support.

While much is still unclear about the deployment of these private Chinese security guards in Myanmar, one thing is certain: China has decided to unequivocally back the junta after years of hedging its bets.

China’s increasing use of private security corporations

Private security corporations and private military corporations are increasingly employed by a wide range of governments as a way of projecting influence and power in other countries without the diplomatic complexities that come with deploying traditional military forces.

Private security corporations provide basic security services for a country’s personnel or assets. Private military corporations, on the other hand, offer more in-depth military services for governments or other actors. This can include augmenting counterinsurgency or combat operations and military training.

China was rather late to the game of overseas private operators, but it has plenty of recent models to follow, such as Russia’s Wagner Group and the Blackwater company from the United States.

Legislative changes in China in 2009 resulted in an expansion of the private security industry, with thousands of domestic operators helping to protect private assets in China and dozens operating abroad from Central Asia to Africa.

Chinese private security corporations generally avoid combat roles and focus on safeguarding infrastructure projects, personnel and investments linked to the country’s Belt and Road Initiative.

There are reportedly already four Chinese private security corporations operating in Myanmar, but the new joint security company is likely to expand the scope and numbers of these operations.

What would they seek to protect? China’s key strategic project is the Myanmar-China Economic Corridor, which includes a proposed railway and twin oil and gas pipelines that connect Kunming in China’s Yunnan Province to Kyauk Phyu in Rakhine State on Myanmar’s western coast. China is also building a port there.

These pipelines run through territory controlled by a range of different armed groups in Shan State and Mandalay Region. The powerful Arakan Army, a member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, also controls the area around Kyauk Phyu.

In addition, opposition groups have already seized a Chinese-owned nickel processing plant in Sagaing Region and a China-backed cement factory in Mandalay Region.

What are the possible implications?

While private security corporations are nominally separate from China’s People Liberation Army (PLA), there is little to stop the PLA from infiltrating these organisations and influencing their operations on the ground.

Having Chinese private security firms in Myanmar also creates a high likelihood of Chinese nationals being caught up in the fighting and possibly killed.

In addition, as the recent stunning fall of the Assad regime in Syria demonstrates, authoritarian regimes facing widespread militant opposition can sometimes fall quickly.

Russia and Iran are now discovering that backing a brutal regime against popular opposition can leave military and economic assets stranded when the tide turns unexpectedly. China should consider these ramifications carefully.

For Myanmar’s junta, the involvement of Chinese security forces would be an embarrassing recognition that it is unable to provide even rudimentary security for its chief ally’s economic and strategic interests.

It also makes the junta even more reliant on China than it already is. While Russia has been the main supplier of weapons since the coup, China remains a key source of military and economic engagement to the junta.

For the opposition forces, the Chinese security operations further complicate their attempts to secure control over key economic and population centres.

And it could mean China will now restrict its support for some of the ethnic armed groups fighting against the junta, such as the successors to the Communist Party of Burma, which have ethnic Chinese roots. This may force the opposition to consolidate its shift towards domestic production of small arms.

The opposition may also look to diversify its economic activity beyond smuggling or trading routes into China, potentially reducing China’s leverage over these groups in the long run.

Lastly, the Chinese security forces may further entrench anti-China sentiment throughout the country. In October, for example, the Chinese consulate in Mandalay was damaged in a bombing attack.

What are the regional implications?

India will no doubt be watching these developments with concern. If the plans go ahead, there will be increasing numbers of Chinese security forces stationed in Rakhine State, just down the road from India’s own massive investment projects in the country.

Two of Myanmar’s other neighbours – Bangladesh and Thailand – will no doubt be
concerned about having Chinese forces on their doorstep and potentially sitting in on meetings with Myanmar officials.

While China’s newfound support has provided a lifeline for the junta, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will also continue to insist on a more inclusive political resolution to the conflict. They are unlikely to view increased Chinese security operations in Myanmar favourably.

Adam Simpson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Chinese security companies are putting boots on the ground in Myanmar. It could go disastrously wrong – https://theconversation.com/chinese-security-companies-are-putting-boots-on-the-ground-in-myanmar-it-could-go-disastrously-wrong-244925

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Archana Koirala, Paediatrician and Infectious Diseases Specialist, University of Sydney

Australia has a successful adolescent immunisation program, routinely achieving high vaccine coverage for teenagers.

However, recent data shows the number of Australian teens receiving the recommended vaccines for their age group has fallen over three years during the COVID pandemic.

So how much have adolescent vaccination rates dropped, and why might this be? And how can we get back on track?

The vaccines teens need – and why they need them

The National Immunisation Program provides a series of free vaccinations for Australian teenagers. These are:

• a booster vaccine for diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis (dTpa), usually offered in year 7
• the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine, also usually offered in year 7
• a meningococcal ACWY vaccine, offered in year 10.

These vaccines are primarily delivered through school-based immunisation programs and health services such as general practices.

They protect teenagers themselves from diseases, but also help reduce the spread of these diseases in the community.

For example, 2024 has seen a surge in whooping cough (pertussis) cases nationally. Although adolescents won’t necessarily get very sick with whooping cough, they can spread the disease. So the dTpa vaccine helps to protect vulnerable populations, including young babies.

HPV is a leading cause of genital warts and cervical cancer. Giving the HPV shot to young teenagers, before they might be exposed to the virus through sexual activity, provides the best protection against cervical cancer.

And older teenagers and young adults are among those at highest risk of meningococcal disease, which can be fatal. They’re also most likely to carry meningococcal bacteria in their nose and throat, and to spread it to others.

A modest but concerning decline

The most recent Annual Immunisation Coverage Report from the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance (NCIRS) shows a drop in vaccination coverage among teenagers between 2022 and 2023, while the previous report shows a drop from 2021 to 2022.

For example, the proportion of teens who had received their adolescent dose of dTpa in the year they turned 15 decreased from 87.3% in 2021, to 86.9% in 2022, to 85.5% in 2023.

Meanwhile, the proportion who had received one dose of meningococcal ACWY vaccine by age 17 fell from 76.1% in 2021, to 75.9% in 2022, to 72.8% in 2023.

Vaccination coverage among Indigenous teenagers dropped by similar amounts. For example, the proportion of Indigenous teens who had received one dose of meningococcal ACWY vaccine by age 17 fell from 66.7% in 2021 to 65.6% in 2022 to 62.3% in 2023.

Overall, in 2023, around one in four 18-year-olds hadn’t received all three of the nationally recommended adolescent vaccines.

These figures show a decline in vaccination coverage among teenagers over three years. This comes after several years of generally increasing coverage before the COVID pandemic.

While the decline has been modest, the downward trend is concerning. It leaves more teenagers – and members of the wider community – vulnerable to serious infectious diseases.

Why is vaccination coverage decreasing among teenagers?

There are likely to be many contributing factors.

Although extended school closures and consequent disruption to school vaccination programs at the height of the pandemic likely played a role, these occurred almost exclusively in Victoria and New South Wales. So they can’t fully explain the ongoing drop in adolescent vaccination coverage across the country.

We don’t have good published data on what influences vaccine acceptance among teenagers. But given parents or guardians need to complete a consent form for their child to get vaccinated at school, we may be able to extrapolate from some of the challenges relating to childhood vaccination uptake.

The trends among teenagers have been consistent with a fall in the rates of younger children who are fully vaccinated. In 2023, 92.8% of one-year-olds were fully vaccinated, down from 94.8% in 2020. At five years old, the coverage rate in 2023 was 93.3%, down also from 94.8% in 2020.

A recent survey into barriers to childhood vaccination in Australia indicates a high proportion of parents who choose not to vaccinate young children have concerns about vaccine safety (48%) and effectiveness (40%). It’s possible the COVID pandemic has hindered vaccine acceptance.

Practical access barriers may also be hampering adolescent immunisation coverage. These might include lack of knowledge among parents about vaccines or immunisation schedules, complicated parental consent processes, school absenteeism, and lack of awareness of immunisation services outside school-based programs.

The NCIRS report for 2023 showed low HPV coverage for adolescents living in socioeconomically disadvantaged and remote locations. This suggests logistics such as transport may also play a role, especially for teens who miss vaccination during the school-based program.

How can we improve things? And what can parents do?

We need research to better understand the factors influencing vaccine uptake among adolescents. This can help us design and implement strategies to improve vaccination coverage in this age group.

For example, understanding the factors influencing HPV vaccination uptake among Indigenous adolescents and ensuring equitable access to targeted and culturally appropriate HPV vaccine education strategies has significantly improved vaccination coverage for this group. HPV vaccine coverage for Indigenous women aged 17 to 25 is now higher than for the general population.

Parents can support their teenagers by talking to them about the importance of immunisation, listening to their concerns and answering any questions they may have. Consent forms will generally include information about the vaccine and the disease it protects against.

If your child misses out on receiving their vaccinations at school or doesn’t attend school, families can access free National Immunisation Program vaccines from their GP, pharmacy, local council or other health services.

Specialist immunisation services are also available in most states and territories. These services are for children and adolescents who are in high-risk groups or for families who are concerned about vaccinating their children.

Teenagers are the next generation of parents, and their attitudes towards immunisation will influence coverage rates of their children in the future. This is yet another reason we need to successfully address any concerns or barriers for this group around vaccination.

Archana Koirala is the chair of Vaccination Special Interest Group of the Australasian Society of Infectious Diseases.

Bianca Middleton is a member of Vaccination Special Interest Group of the Australasian Society of Infectious Diseases. She is an investigator on several research studies funded by NHMRC, and also an investigator on an industry-sponsored clinical vaccine trial. She does not receive any direct funding from industry.

Fiona Russell receives funding from the NHMRC, WHO, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and DFAT. She is a member of the Australasian Society of Infectious Diseases Vaccination Special Interest Group. She does not receive any funding from Industry.

Katrina Clark has previously worked for the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance (NCIRS).

Sophie Wen is the deputy chair of Vaccination Special Interest Group of the Australasian Society of Infectious Diseases. Sophie Wen receives funding from Queensland Government for an Advancing Clinical Research Fellowship and is a Mary McConnel career boost program recipient from Children’s Hospital Foundation. Sophie Wen is an investigator for several industry-sponsored clinical vaccine trials but does not receive any direct funding from industry.

– ref. Vaccination rates among Australian teens are dropping. Here’s how we can get back on track – https://theconversation.com/vaccination-rates-among-australian-teens-are-dropping-heres-how-we-can-get-back-on-track-244043

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tracey Muir, Professor in Education (STEM), Australian Catholic University

What do you remember about maths at school? Did you whizz through the problems and enjoy getting the answers right? Or did you often feel lost and worried you weren’t keeping up? Perhaps you felt maths wasn’t for you and you stopped doing it altogether.

Maths can generate strong emotions in students. When these emotions are negative, it leads to poor mathematical wellbeing.
This means students do not feel good when doing maths and do not function well. They may experience feelings of hopelessness and despair, and view themselves as incapable of learning maths.

Poor mathematical wellbeing, if not addressed, can develop into maths anxiety). This can impact working memory (which we use for calculating and problem-solving) and produce physical symptoms such as increased heart and breathing rates. It can also lead to students avoiding maths subjects, courses and careers.

Research shows students often start primary school enjoying and feeling optimistic about maths. However, these emotions can decline rapidly as students progress through school and can continue into adulthood.

Our new, as-yet-unpublished, research shows how this can be an issue for those studying to become teachers.

Our research

We frequently see students enter our university courses lacking confidence in their maths knowledge and ability to teach the subject. Some students describe it as “maths trauma”.

To better understand this issue, we surveyed 300 students who are studying to be primary teachers. All were enrolled in their first maths education unit.

We asked them to recount a negative and positive experience with maths at school. Many described feelings of shame and hopelessness. These feelings were often attributed to unsupportive teachers and teaching practices when learning maths at school.

Read more:
‘Maths anxiety’ is a real thing. Here are 3 ways to help your child cope

‘I felt so much anxiety’

The responses describing unpleasant experiences were highly emotional. The most common emotion experienced was shame (35%), followed by anxiety (27%), anger (18%), hopelessness (12%) and boredom (8%). Students also described feeling stupid, afraid, left behind, panicked, rushed and unsupported.

Being put on the spot in front of their peers and being afraid of providing wrong answers was a significant cause of anxiety:

The teacher had the whole class sitting in a circle and was asking students at random different times tables questions like ‘what is 4 x 8?’ I remember I felt so much anxiety sitting in that circle as I was not confident, especially with my six and eight times tables.

Students recalled how competition between students being publicly “right” or “wrong” featured in their maths lessons. Another student recalled how their teacher held back the whole class until a classmate could perfectly recite a certain times table.

Students also told us about feeling left behind and not being able to catch up.

In around Year 9, I remember doing algebra, and feeling like I didn’t ‘get’ it. I remember the feeling of falling behind. Not nice! The feeling of gentle panic, like you’re trying to hang on and the rope is pulled through your hands.

Students also described the stress of results being made public in front of their classmates. Another respondent told us how the teacher called out NAPLAN maths results from lowest to highest in front of the whole class.

‘I was scared of maths teachers’

In other studies, primary and high school students have said a supportive teacher is one of the most important influences on their mathematical wellbeing.

In our research, many of the students’ descriptions directly mentioned “the teacher”. This further shows how important the teacher/student relationship is and its impact on students’ feelings about maths. As one student told us, they were:

[…] belittled by the teacher and the class [was] asked to tell me the answer to the question that I didn’t know. I felt lost and embarrassed and upset.

Another student told us how they were asked to stay behind after class after others had left because they didn’t understand “wordy maths problems”.

[there were] sighs and huffs from the teacher as it was taking so long to learn. I was scared of maths and maths teachers.

But teachers were also mentioned extensively when students reflected on pleasant experiences. Approximately one third of student responses mentioned teachers who were understanding, kind and supportive:

In Year 8 my teacher for maths made it fun and engaging and made sure to help every student […] The teacher made me feel smart and that if I put my mind to it I could do it.

What can we do differently?

Our research suggests there are four things teachers can do differently when teaching maths to support students’ learning and feelings about maths.

1. Work with negative emotions: we can support students to tune into negative emotions and use them to their advantage. For example, we can show students how to embrace being confused – this is an opportunity to learn and with the right level of support, overcome the issue. In turn, this teaches students resilience

2. Normalise negative emotions: we can invite students to share their emotions with others in the class. Chances are, they will not be the only one feeling worried. This can help students feel supported and show them they are not alone

3. Treat mathematical wellbeing as seriously as maths learning: teachers can be patient and supportive and make sure maths lessons are engaging and relevant to students’ lives. When teachers focus on enjoying learning and supporting students’ psychological safety, this encourages risk-taking and makes it harder to develop negative emotions

4. Ditch the ‘scary’ methods: avoid teaching approaches that students find unpleasant – such as pitting students against each other or calling on students for an answer in front of their peers. In doing so, teachers can avoid creating more “maths scars” in the next generation of students.

Chrissy Monteleone, Matthew Sexton and Kerrie Petersen also contributed to the research study explained in this article.

Tracey Muir has received funding from the Australian Research Council for other projects not related to this article.

Julia Hill received funding from the Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship, which was not related to this article.

Sharyn Livy has received funding from the Victorian Curriculum Assessment Authority, Department of Education Victorian, Bastow Institute of Educational Leadership, Australian Research Council, Catholic Diocese of Parramatta and Catholic Education Melbourne for other projects not related to this article.

– ref. ‘I was scared’: many student teachers had bad maths experiences at school. Here’s how they can do better – https://theconversation.com/i-was-scared-many-student-teachers-had-bad-maths-experiences-at-school-heres-how-they-can-do-better-245647

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kathleen Walsh, Professor of Finance, University of Technology Sydney

This article is part of The Conversation’s “Retirement” series where experts examine issues including how much money we need to retire, retiring with debt, the psychological impact of retiring and the benefits of getting financial advice.

About 36% of homeowners still have a mortgage when they retire, up from 23% a decade ago.

This increase in mortgage debt is due to soaring property prices, changes in retirement ages and easy access to drawdown equity loans (where you use your home as security to get a loan, which can be used to fund travel, medical costs and other expenses).

So, what are the options for homeowners who carry debt into retirement?

Option 1: keeping the home and the debt

If you keep the family home in retirement, you get to own a property and can still receive the age pension.

For example: Jackie has a home worth A$2 million with a $200,000 mortgage. She also has $800,000 in superannuation. She is 67 but is not eligible for the age pension because her assessable assets – her super – is above the $695,500 cut off.

If Jackie takes $200,000 from her super and repays the outstanding mortgage debt, she will save on interest and principal repayments for the next ten years. She will also reduce her assessable assets by $200,000. This makes her eligible for a part pension.

So while Jackie has less super, she gets to receive a pension and gets all the subsidies associated with being a pensioner.

Option 2: downsizing to clear the debt

Downsizing can extinguish any remaining debt, and can free up money for holidays, restaurants and the good life in retirement. It also enables a move to a more age-friendly home or apartment.

And the government does provide a superannuation incentive via the downsizing contribution.

This allows homeowners over 55 who have lived in their home for more than ten years to make a one-off contribution of $300,000 (singles) and $600,000 (couples) to their super, using money from the sale of their home.

But when a person reaches pension age, currently 67, any money in super will be included in the government’s assessment of your financial assets and income. It could mean you don’t qualify for a pension or pensioner subsidies.

Of the approximately 2.6 million who receive a part or full the age pension, only 78,000 people have taken up this initiative. That begs the question if this option really does create a true financial downsizing incentive.

Think again of Jackie, the woman with the $2 million home and the $200,000 in mortgage debt. Say she decides to sell her home and move to a smaller house close to family and friends. This will incur about $40,000 in selling and marketing fees, and stamp duty of around $62,000 on her new $1.4 million apartment.

Downsizing leaves her with $1.1 million in financial assets (after transaction costs), which means that Jackie is not eligible for the pension.

While she’ll be able to fund a comfortable lifestyle, this decision to downsize may not be as attractive as keeping the house.

The decision to sell and move has cost her an extra $100,000 in transaction costs and her pension.

So, people need to think carefully about downsizing. It can allow people to move closer to children, grandchildren, and the services they need – but these must be balanced against the financial implications.

What about renters?

Paying market rent while on a fixed income can be very hard, so renting is a challenge for retirees.

According to the 2021 census, women aged 55-64 and those over 65 are among the fastest-growing groups experiencing homelessness.

The good news is many profit and not-for-profit retirement communities provide rental models and discounted entry contributions to residents with limited means (but there are often waiting lists).

Retirement village residents may also be eligible for rent assistance depending on their circumstances.

Rent assistance is an extra $5,751 per year in social security benefits and provides extra financial support to eligible age pension recipients.

Retirement communities provide vulnerable older Australians a unique opportunity to move into a community under a leasehold or licence agreement. More than 260,000 senior Australians live in about 2,500 retirement communities across the country.

While a retirement village may not be the first option for many retirees, they can provide affordable accommodation.

Making the best choice

Navigating housing decisions as you approach retirement means balancing financial, emotional, and lifestyle considerations.

Homeowners retiring with a mortgage face a choice: keep their home or downsize to alleviate debt.

Keeping the home and accessing super to pay the outstanding debt improves cash flow and allows you to keep your biggest asset.

Downsizing helps eliminate debt and boosts the super balance, but comes with extra transaction costs (and you may end up with less pension, or none at all).

Seeking professional financial advice is crucial, and ensure they are a registered financial advisor.

Jemma Briscoe is director of Aged Care Gurus where she develops educational resources and software for professionals advising on retirement-related matters.

Kathleen Walsh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Retiring with debt? Experts explain downsizing, using super for your mortgage, and pension eligibility – https://theconversation.com/retiring-with-debt-experts-explain-downsizing-using-super-for-your-mortgage-and-pension-eligibility-240679

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Hook, Senior Lecturer in Law, Western Sydney University

Rachel Gunn, aka Raygun, is no stranger to controversy. In August the university lecturer went viral for her quirky, marsupial-inspired breakdancing at the Olympics.

Over the weekend, Gunn was back in the spotlight. Raygun: The Musical, a “parody exploration” of Gunn’s journey to the Paris Olympics from Australian comedian Steph Broadbridge, was cancelled due to a legal complaint from Gunn and her lawyers.

A statement from Gunn’s legal and management team cited “misuse of intellectual property” and the need to protect Raygun’s brand.

The law is clear, Gunn is unlikely to be able to enforce intellectual property over her name, her persona, and her dance moves, and there are exceptions and rights for Australians to parody without it being infringement. But does this matter if legal threats are enough to stop artists from taking risks?

Does Raygun own her name?

In Australia we have both copyright – protecting literary, artistic, dramatic and musical works – and trademarks – protecting signs used as badges of origin for a brand.

In Australia, it is generally accepted you cannot copyright short titles, slogans, single words and names, but you can protect names as trademarks when used as brands for specific classes of goods or services.

This means even invented names like “Exxon” cannot be protected by copyright, but it can be a trademark for the oil and gas giant.

While “Raygun” is a clever play on words, it does not qualify for copyright protection. Using it in the title of a production like “Raygun: The Musical” is not copyright infringement.

In August, Gunn applied to register “Raygun” as a trademark for various classes including entertainment and clothing. She has others awaiting examination: one for her in silhouette kangaroo hop and another for the photograph of the same. Once these are accepted and not successfully opposed, they will be registered as trademarks.

Trademarks are personal property that confer powerful rights to protect the goodwill of the business in which the mark is used.

Under the Trade Marks Act, Gunn could enforce her rights against people also using Raygun (or similar) as a trademark in relation to their own entertainment or clothing businesses, for example when selling clothing, or if using the mark as the brand of a movie company.

This definition of infringement can make enforcement against parodies difficult. For example, in a case where Greenpeace used AGL’s logo in a campaign against climate pollution, the court ruled Greenpeace’s parodic use of the logo didn’t amount to Greenpeace using AGL’s logo as their brand.

Similarly, unless a parody uses Gunn’s trademarks as a trademark, rather than as the subject matter, an infringement claim would likely fail.

Does Raygun own her persona?

In Australia, there is no right of publicity, meaning a person’s likeness and name are open for others to use, adapt and parody. Broadbridge can call a character in her musical Raygun.

In the statement from Gunn’s legal and management team, they said the use of the name Raygun “by a comedian without approval has caused confusion among the public”.

As parodies involve mockery, it would be difficult to establish the legal standard that the public were confused that she endorsed the musical.

Does Raygun own her dance moves?

The general concept of a dance, a dance style and individual dance moves are not protected by copyright.

However, choreography can be protected as a dramatic work under the Copyright Act when it is original and has been documented, such as being recorded in a video. Copyright arises automatically when these criteria are met.

Copyright owners of dance choreography have exclusive rights, including the right to reproduce the work in a material form (such as a recording) and to perform the work in public.

Broadbridge was allegedly told she couldn’t do the kangaroo dance. For infringement to be proven, the musical would need to replicate Gunn’s exact choreography or a substantial part of it.

Even then, the fair dealing defence for parody or satire could apply if the use was fair and for parody. This defence would likely succeed, as it involves imitating an earlier work with humour or mockery.

Stifling free expression?

Intellectual property law encourages creation and compensates creators. Most jurisdictions, including Australia, have complex rules and exceptions.

Nevertheless, there is a risk that cease and desist demands that overlook credible defences can stifle creativity.

In Australia, there is no standalone right to parody, and so an infringement notice can be levied – even in cases where parody or satire can be a defence. This means comedians such as Broadbridge are on the back foot and have to defend their parody when receiving a legal threat. If they don’t have capacity to fight, they have to give up the right rather than bear the costs of litigation.

It is not surprising that legal threats can have a chilling effect on creativity and lead to self-censorship.

As Broadbridge told 7 News:

I don’t know how it will be for creativity if I will have lawyers breathing down my neck telling me what I can and can’t say on stage.

Satire, humour and parody are hallmarks of Australian culture. If a parody causes “serious harm” to reputation, defamation law can intervene. But using IP law to censor creativity harms us all.

Italy has a “fair balance approach”: instead of treating parody as a defence, a parody of a work is considered beyond the scope of copyright enforcement, as it is not viewed as a derivative work.

Australia is unlikely to adopt such a stance, but steps need to be taken to ensure the entertainment industry is more comfortable to support parodies, even when threatened with litigation.

Without anyone game enough to defend parodies in the courts the Australian larrikin sense of humour Gunn herself exhibited at the Olympics may be too risky to exhibit.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Raygun’s claim against a parody musical may not stand up: here’s what the law says – https://theconversation.com/rayguns-claim-against-a-parody-musical-may-not-stand-up-heres-what-the-law-says-245571

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Higham, Professor of Tourism, Griffith University

Surging global tourism emissions are driven almost entirely by 20 countries, and efforts to rein in the trend aren’t working.

That is the main finding of our new research, published in Nature Communications today. It represents the most rigorous and comprehensive analysis of tourism emissions yet conducted.

The study draws together multiple datasets, including those published directly by 175 governments over 11 years (2009-2020). It uses the United Nations-endorsed “measurement of sustainable tourism” framework and draws on tourism expenditure and emissions intensity data from national accounts.

The findings reveal serious challenges ahead, given the wider context. The UN Environment Programme reports a 42% reduction in current global emissions overall is needed by 2030 (and 57% by 2035). If not, the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees will be lost.

But global tourism emissions have been growing at double the rate of the global economy. Our study reveals that between 2009 and 2019, emissions increased by 40%, from 3.7 gigatonnes (7.3% of global emissions) in 2009 to 5.2 gigatonnes (8.8% of global emissions) in 2019.

While global tourism emissions fell dramatically in 2020-2021 due to COVID-19, the rebound to pre-pandemic levels has been rapid.

Massive growth without a technological fix

Tourism-related emissions increased at a yearly rate of 3.5% from 2009 to 2019. By comparison, global economic growth in general over that period was 1.5% per annum. If this growth rate continues, global tourism emissions will double over the next two decades.

The carbon intensity of every dollar of tourist spending is 30% higher than the average for the global economy, and four times higher than the service sector.

The primary driver of rising emissions is high growth in tourism demand. The rapidly expanding carbon footprint is predominantly from aviation (21%), use of vehicles powered by petrol and deisel (17%), and utilities such as electricity supply (16%).

Slow efficiency gains through technology have been overwhelmed by this growth in demand.

Aviation accounted for half of direct tourism emissions, making it the Achilles heel of global tourism emissions. Despite decades of promises, the global air transport system has proved impossible to decarbonise through new technologies.

20 countries dominate emissions

Our research revealed alarming inequalities in emissions growth between countries. The United States, China and India accounted for 60% of the growth in tourism emissions between 2009 and 2019. By 2019, these three countries alone were responsible for 39% of total global tourism emissions.

Three-quarters of total global tourism emissions are produced by just 20 countries, with the remaining 25% shared between 155. Remarkably, there is now a hundred-fold difference in per-capta tourism footprints between countries which travel most and those which travel least.

Of the top 20, the US (as a foreign destination, as well as its citizens travelling) had the largest tourism carbon footprint in 2019 – nearly 1 gigatonne. It was responsible for 19% of the total global tourism carbon footprint, growing at an annual rate of 3.2%.

In 2019, the US tourism carbon footprint was equivalent to 3 tonnes per resident, ranking 12th globally among countries with the highest per-capita tourism emissions.

As a destination, the United Kingdom ranked 7th globally, at 128 megatonnes (2.5% of the total). In 2019, UK residents produced 2.8 tonnes of emissions per person, ranked 15th globally.

Australia’s tourism carbon footprint ranked 14th globally (82 megatonnes). Its resident per-capita tourism carbon footprint in 2019 was 3.4 tonnes (8th globally). This underscores the high emissions being driven by long-haul air travel for inbound and outbound international trips.

In 2019, New Zealand’s per-capita tourism carbon footprint was 3.1 tonnes per resident (10th globally). Like Australia, dependence on long-haul international travel is a problem that cannot be ignored.

4 pathways to decarbonising tourism

For the first time ever, this year’s UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP29) included tourism. UN Tourism endorsed our study and acknowledged tourism now contributes 8.8% of total global emissions.

It reported that COP29 “marks a turning point, when ambition meets action, and vision transforms into commitment […] to positive transformation for a better future for our planet”.

But our research shows the combination of tourism demand growth on one hand, and the failure of technology efficiency gains on the other, present enormous barriers to tourism carbon mitigation.

Despite this, we have identified four pathways towards stabilising and reducing global tourism emissions:

1. Measure tourism carbon emissions to identify hotspots. Our research provides evidence of the tourism sub-sectors driving high emissions growth, including aviation, energy supply and vehicle use. These hotspots must move onto a 10% annual emissions reduction pathway to 2050.

2. Avoid excessive tourism development and identify sustainable growth thresholds. National tourism decarbonisation strategies must now define and implement sustainable growth goals, most urgently in the 20 highest-emitting tourism destinations.

3. Shift focus to domestic and short-range markets, and discourage long-haul markets. Actively managing growth in demand for air travel is the most obvious first step, which might involve regulating long-haul air travel demand.

4. Address inequality between countries by factoring in the social costs of carbon emissions. Controlling current patterns of relentless growth in long-haul air travel aligns with a more socially equitable approach to tourism, which is needed to address these inequalities.

The fundamental purpose of our research is to give policymakers and industry leaders greater clarity about tourism’s impact on global emissions. The challenge then is to develop evidence-based policy and regulation to achieve urgent tourism decarbonisation.

The authors acknowledge the contributions of Stefan Gössling, Manfred Lenzen and Futu Faturay who were part of the research team on this project, and who coauthored the Nature Communications paper on which this article is based.

James Higham receives funding from the NZ Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment Endeavour Programme.

Ya-Yen Sun receives funding from the Australian Research Council to support this project.

– ref. Surging global tourism emissions are driven by just 20 countries – major new study – https://theconversation.com/surging-global-tourism-emissions-are-driven-by-just-20-countries-major-new-study-244036

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Anthony Albanese will promise a re-elected Labor government would guarantee three days of subsidised child care without people having to undertake an activity test.

In an address on Wednesday to an early education event in Brisbane, Albanese will say every family earning up to $530,000 would have access to this guarantee. The plan would cost $427 million over five years and begin in January 2026.

The present activity test determines the maximum number of hours of subsidised care per fortnight. Activities include paid work, studying, volunteering and looking for work. The more hours of activity, the more hours of subsidised care people can receive. There are exemptions for low income earners and some other families.

Under the prime minister’s promise, those accessing subsidised care of more than three days would still have to meet an activity test.

The recent Productivity Commission inquiry into early childhood education and care recommended the activity test be entirely scrapped.

In his speech, released in part ahead of delivery, Albanese says the activity test puts “extra weight on the shoulders of parents who are already doing the hard yards of looking for work while locking their children out of early education.

“Denying them those learning skills and social skills that get you ready for school.”

He says too often those children who miss out on early education are those for whom it would make the most difference.

“Our Three Day Guarantee will ensure every family can afford three days of high-quality early education.”

Labor wants to “build a universal child care system. Simple, affordable and accessible, for every family.”

But Albanese stresses the plan does not mean mandatory attendance. “The choice will be up to parents, as always, as it should be. But we want families to have a real choice. We want to make sure that your decision isn’t dictated by where you live, or what you do for a living.”

Albanese says this term the government has been putting the foundations for a universal system into place. The single biggest commitment it took to the last election was its cheaper child care policy, he points out.

This investment has cut the cost of child care for more than one million families, with the average family saving more than $4.400, he says.

He says next week’s budget update will show Commonwealth funding for child care subsidies w
increasing by $3.1 billion over the next four years, supporting an extra 200,000 children.

The Productivity Commission in its report said the activity test was brought in to boost workforce participation. But it had “cemented a view” among some disadvantaged families that early childhood education was “only for people who have jobs”.

“The test was tightened in 2018 to reduce the number of subsidised hours families could access without meeting the activity test. The Child Care Package Evaluation, undertaken after this tightening, showed that it is not clear that labour force participation goals have been achieved,” the report said. “Changes in employment and other activities were small and not necessarily attributable to the activity test.”

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Anthony Albanese to promise three days subsidised child care without an activity test – https://theconversation.com/anthony-albanese-to-promise-three-days-subsidised-child-care-without-an-activity-test-245668

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Ricketson, Professor of Communication, Deakin University

In the seemingly never-ending psychodrama surrounding Rupert Murdoch and his family, life has imitated art. Again.

A report on December 9 in The New York Times revealed details of the recent secret hearing in a Nevada probate court that was literally prompted by the epic HBO drama Succession.

In April last year, immediately after the airing of the Succession episode in which family patriarch Logan Roy dies, leaving both family and media business in chaos, Elisabeth Murdoch asked her legal representative on the family trust to send what was called the “Succession memo”.

Her aim was to avoid another episode of life imitating art. Her father had moved to change an irrevocable family trust that had been created after the end of his second marriage to Anna Murdoch in the late 1990s. Rupert’s move was designed to weaken Elisabeth’s position and that of her siblings Prudence and James, while enabling the family patriarch to effectively rule from the grave through his eldest son, Lachlan.

Read more:
Rupert Murdoch’s real-life succession drama is underway in a Nevada courtroom. What might happen next?

The probate commissioner in Nevada who heard Rupert Murdoch’s application, Edmund Gorman “resoundingly” ruled against his attempt to change his family trust in a way that would have secured Lachlan’s position atop the global media empire.

Gorman was scathing in his ruling, saying father and son had acted in “bad faith” in their bid to change an “irrevocable” family trust that divides control of Fox News and News Corporation equally among Murdoch’s four eldest children from his first and second marriages: Prudence, Elisabeth, Lachlan and James.

In the 96-page ruling, Gorman described the plan to change the trust as a “carefully crafted charade” to permanently consolidate Lachlan’s executive roles inside News, “regardless of the impacts such control would have over the companies or the beneficiaries” of the family trust.

The implications of the ruling are seismic, and commentators are already tracking the potential aftershocks. Eric Beecher, a former Murdoch editor, now chair of Private Media and author of The Men Who Killed the News, wrote in Crikey:

The leadership of both Murdoch companies, News Corp and Fox (combined market capitalisation of around US$40 billion), is now deeply uncertain as a result of the commissioner’s ruling. The non-Murdoch shareholders — who own more than 80% of each company — have woken up to the news that their chairman is likely to lose his job when his father dies, the family that controls those companies’ voting shares is locked in a bitter legal fight, and control of those companies is precarious. And shareholders and markets hate uncertainty.

Gorman’s ruling is not the end of the matter, however. It’s technically a recommendation to the Probate Court, which a district judge will ratify or reject.

Whatever the judge decides is open to appeal, which a lawyer for Rupert and Lachlan has already said they plan to do. Meanwhile, the other three siblings have released a statement welcoming the decision and expressing hope that “we can move beyond this litigation to focus on strengthening and rebuilding relationships among all family members”.

Good luck with that. The strongly worded ruling seems likely only to drive the parties further apart.

The family business and the business of family

The New York Times has previously reported it was Lachlan who initiated the plan to change the trust in mid-2023, following Elisabeth’s “Succession memo”. In consultation with his father’s lawyers and advisers, Lachlan drafted a plan to change the provisions of the family trust, which they called “Project Harmony” – “perhaps too optimistically”, commissioner Gorman remarked wryly.

Gorman’s ruling quotes from a text message Lachlan sent to Elisabeth before the trust met late last year:

Today is about Dad’s wishes and confirming all of our support for him and for his wishes. It shouldn’t be difficult or controversial. Love you, Lachlan.

At the meeting, Rupert said he loved all his children but “these companies need a designated leader and Lachlan is that leader”. This sweetness-and-light sentiment from Rupert jarred with Lachlan’s description of James as the trust’s “troublesome beneficiary”.

By “troublesome” the plan was obliquely referring to the split in the family between Lachlan and Rupert – who are wedded to a media empire that is both right-wing and profitable – and James, who severed all ties with the company over its denialist coverage of climate change and its credulous reporting of baseless conspiracy theories about the result of the 2020 US presidential election.

Rupert, like his fictional counterpart Logan Roy, has always been conflicted about his family and his media business. The empire has been his single biggest driving force for more than 70 of his 93 years. He alone built it and ran it. He has always overseen it as a family business despite its complexity, scale and need to continually adapt to the changing media landscape.

A common thread through the eight biographies of Murdoch published over the past four decades is that he loves his children. But as Jim Rutenberg, one of the two New York Times journalists who broke the Nevada stories, has pointed out, Lachlan, James and Elisabeth “are desperate to show their father that they can succeed and the only way they can do that is by succeeding in his business – the media”.

Commenting in the seven-part 2022 documentary series, The Murdochs: Empire of Influence, Rutenberg said: “By making his family the business and the business his family, Rupert left his family just as broken up as his company was when he sold [in 2018] to Disney”.

Where will the final season end?

The Murdoch family drama, then, has a few episodes left in it. If it is hard to see how it can end any more happily than Succession’s fourth and final season, we should also be allowed to imagine what New Corp could look like post-Rupert.

Let’s look at what the global media company could become without either the chairman emeritus looking over the chief executive’s shoulder, or even his ghostly spectre looming large, as would have been the case if the litigation in Nevada had succeeded.

If Prudence, Elisabeth and James can assert control, sideline Lachlan, and settle on a unified path forward, they can potentially reshape the company and redefine its journalism.

If they have already war-gamed it, and surely by now they have, the three siblings would know their greatest risk is alienating their current audiences, subscribers and advertisers.

In Australia, News operates in a virtual monopoly, so it can shapeshift with fewer consequences. But the US market is awash with emerging right-wing alternatives, each of which is eager to steal a share of the Fox audience. These viewers are the people who make Fox such a valuable commodity, and they’re the reason why it’s been so hard to stand up to Trump and his anti-democratic tactics, even on the odd occasions when Rupert and Lachlan wanted to.

The challenge is to somehow bring those audiences along for whatever transition the siblings envisage for the company. Can it be done, and if so, how?

The company’s own history suggests editorial change can happen quickly and audiences do tend to retain some loyalty. Murdoch’s takeover of The New York Post in the 1970s shows it is possible to radically change a masthead’s editorial position while expanding its audience, in that case from a mostly Democrat-leaning readership to a larger and more conservative one. But that was a moribund newspaper due for a radical makeover. There’s no guarantee it would work in reverse.

Fox News is arguably at the peak of its powers. The incentive to impose change has everything to do with journalistic standards and nothing to do with finances. In 2023–24 the Fox Corporation’s net income was US$1.5 billion (A$2.35 billion).

Even so, it must be possible to introduce incremental changes that reacquaint Fox viewers with more considered and ethical journalism without scaring them off. This wouldn’t work universally. Some of the demagogues who couldn’t cope would have to go – Sean Hannity springs to mind, as does former Fox firebrand Tucker Carlson.

Under new management, News could reintroduce some of the elements lost to Talk-TV in the mid-1980s, when the US scrapped the fairness doctrine that guaranteed balance and greater civility on the airwaves. It could ensure programs canvas different views, ask devil’s-advocate questions, and investigate issues without fear or favour.

Change of this nature wouldn’t be easy. News Corp has an echelon of editors across its global mastheads, most of whom are culture warriors and battle-hardened loyalists. They can and probably would work together to undermine progressive change.

During his tenure as the Australian head of News Corp, well before he became chair of the ABC, Kim Williams saw how the editors sneeringly white-anted his efforts to introduce reform. Even Lachlan Murdoch discovered that senior staff could undercut him. Paddy Manning recounts in his 2022 biography of Lachlan Murdoch, The Successor, that the infamous Roger Ailes did just this as Lachlan was learning the ropes at Fox in the early 2000s.

The three siblings will need resolve to dispense with those who get in their way, and they’ll need to introduce firm but gradual changes that don’t unduly scare their audiences or the market. But if Prudence, James and Elizabeth do share such a vision and are up for a fight, the world could soon be in for a fascinating media transition.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Rupert Murdoch loses his legal battle, leaving future of media empire in the balance – https://theconversation.com/rupert-murdoch-loses-his-legal-battle-leaving-future-of-media-empire-in-the-balance-245665

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Oliver A.H. Jones, Professor of Chemistry, RMIT University

Fluoride is back in the news, after incoming US “health czar” Robert F. Kennedy Jr called for its removal from drinking water.

At the same time, the Australian Medical Association (Queensland) recently urged local councils to reintroduce fluoride to water supplies, amid rising incidence of oral disease.

So what is fluoride, and why is it so controversial?

What is fluoride?

Fluoride is a natural substance found in rocks (for example, the mineral fluorite) as well as water sources, soils and plants.

The Australian Drinking Water Guidelines recommend three compounds for fluoridating water: sodium fluoride, sodium fluorosilicate and fluorosilicic acid.

Usually, one of these compounds is added – under carefully monitored conditions – during drinking water treatment before it is sent to the tap.

Is it good for our teeth?

Fluoride helps prevent cavities by making tooth enamel more resistant to acids from bacteria in your mouth.

The addition of small amounts of fluoride to drinking water to prevent dental decay began in the United States in 1945. This resulted from health officials in a Colorado City noticing residents had stained but remarkably healthy teeth.

This was traced to the high levels of fluoride naturally present in the local water. Research later confirmed while excess fluoride can cause cosmetic discoloration, lower concentrations still prevented cavities without harmful side effects.

In Australia, fluoride was first added to water in Beaconsfield, Tasmania in 1953.

Today, around 90% of Australians can access fluoridated water at levels of between 0.6 to 1.1 mg/L. This is estimated to have reduced tooth decay in Australia by 26–44%.

This does depend on where you live as there are different policies in different states and territories. For example, about 28% of Queenslanders do not have fluoridated water.

What are people worried about?

There has always been opposition to fluoridation. This includes the argument it is “government overreach” since we can’t easily opt out from drinking tap water.

A 2019 study also claimed fluoride affected the IQ of children. But this work has been roundly criticised and a 2024 study detailed serious weaknesses in the study design.

Multiple reviews of high-quality studies from many different countries, including the US and Australia, have found no evidence of harm.

One study followed people over 30 years, testing their IQs at various ages, and found no link between fluoride levels and IQ scores.

Working out what’s safe

It’s reasonable to want to know what’s in our drinking water and to ensure it is safe. But discussions about toxicity are meaningless without context.

Excessive fluoride intake can have harmful effects, such as weakened bones (skeletal fluorosis). But the key word is “excessive”.

Anything can be toxic to humans if the dose is too high, even water itself. The amount of fluoride needed to cause harm is much higher than you get from drinking water.

In Australia, the National Health and Medical Research Council recommends states and territories fluoridate their drinking water supplies within a range of 0.6 to 1.1 mg/L.

Recently, authorities decided to deliver bottled water for children under 12 and pregnant women in two remote Northern Territory communities with high natural levels of fluoride (1.7 to 1.9 mg/L). This measure was taken as a precaution in response to community concerns, not because any harmful effects were recorded.

Lessons from places that removed fluoride

The risks of adding fluoride to water are extremely low. But several recent cases demonstrate the very real health risks of not fluoridating water.

The Canadian city of Calgary removed fluoride from drinking water in 2011. Seven to eight years later, dental cavities in children were significantly higher in Calgary compared to nearby Edmonton, which did not remove fluoride.

In 2015, Buffalo, New York removed fluoride from its water supply. Dental problems increased so much parents sued the city for harming their children.

Israel is another interesting case. The introduction of nationwide water fluoridation in 2002 significantly reduced children’s dental issues. This trend reversed in 2014, when fluoridation was discontinued – despite the government introducing free dental care for children in 2010.

An equity issue

The evidence has continually demonstrated fluoride is not only safe – it has significant benefits for oral health.

Some of the benefits of fluoride can be achieved via fluoridated toothpaste or fluoride treatments at the dentist.

But dentistry is not included in Medicare. Fluoridating water (or table salt, as used in many European countries) remains one of the most equitable ways to ensure these benefits are not only for those who can afford it.

Oliver A.H. Jones receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC), various water utilities and the Environment Protection Agency (EPA) Victoria for research into environmental pollution. He is also the deputy director of the RMIT University Water: Effective Technologies and Tools (WETT) Research Centre.

– ref. Fluoride in drinking water is in the spotlight again. Let’s not forget how it transformed our oral health – https://theconversation.com/fluoride-in-drinking-water-is-in-the-spotlight-again-lets-not-forget-how-it-transformed-our-oral-health-245162

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Hughes, Lecturer in Marketing, Research School of Management, Australian National University

Not so long ago, sports and entertainment were separate: each had their own distinct place in our minds.

In the streaming era, that has become somewhat blurred. If anything, we now have to filter through all the types of content available to entertain us, rather than having to search from a limited range of offerings.

Sport is now a form of entertainment, competing against a broad range of direct and indirect competitors who are essentially fighting over their slice of the cake in this attention economy.

Sports and sports teams have had to adapt quickly to this changing era through different methods, such as how they use social media.

The four Es of great content

Broadly speaking, for any content to be effective with its intended market, it needs to have four basic elements: entertainment, engagement, experiential and emotions.

Sport, as a whole, ticks those four boxes quite well (but only when it is being played). Just look at the Matildas’ World Cup phenomenon in 2023.

Our need to be entertained is now constant, even hourly. Previously, this presented a challenge for sports: how to keep and maintain connection with audiences when sport wasn’t being played?

Content competitors, such as YouTube, have something for us to watch 24/7.

Sports and sporting teams then realised they had to start to provide content when games weren’t being played to keep relevance and resonance with their markets. And do so with the four E’s in mind.

Say hello to your brand new social media feed.

Early on this content was hit and miss. But in the past few years it has picked up to the point where the four Es are being ticked off by most teams.

This engagement can all draw in extra money via ticket sales, memberships, merchandise and experience packages, such as Hawthorn’s social media-fuelled financial boost last season.

There has also been assistance from successful fly-on-the-wall documentary series on everything from the Australian cricket team, to Formula 1, to cycling, which have deepened resonance between brand and consumer.

So how to judge success in this area? The ultimate compliment of social media content is the share. And some teams, such as Greater Western Sydney in the AFL, are getting more and more.

Success, right? Maybe, but there are other criteria to consider.

Brand personality and connection

Success in marketing is rarely binary. Another important dimension to why sports have started to have more fun with their social media feed relates to brand personality and brand connection.

These theories are the bedrock behind how we value brands, and how brands have been slowly moving away from formal to fun.

We connect with brands that fit our personalities. Have an outdoorsy identification? Say hello to SUVs like Ford Ranger, or clothing like Kathmandu. Sophistication? Apple. Beachy? Billabong.

Value means loyalty, and loyalty means less switching behaviour.

Walking the thin white line tightrope

However, sport has a treacherous path to walk on this.

Ultimately, the core content is the sporting contest. If it veers away from the on-field battles and results too much, it runs the risk of losing connection with the loyal supporters who become confused over what the brand stands for.

There are also risks through simple human error and poor decision-making by those who run the social media accounts – the Monty Panesar tweet by Cricket Australia in 2013 being one case in point.

More recently, after the 2024 AFL draft, St Kilda was left red-faced after sending a message to a wrong number instead of a player they had just drafted. The club at least had fun with their blunder, posting their mistake on social media.

And of course there are numerous examples on social media where individual athletes, via secondary association, such as Stephanie Rice’s tweet, can result in brand damage.

At the same time, silence in the digital era means losing connection, relevance, and eventually value.

And if sports truly want to say they represent all, and not just the core fans, they need to find ways to grow that connection.

The new AFL team Tasmania Devils – set to enter the league in 2028 – are a good example of a club that is doing that, maintaining a balance between functional offering and entertainment.

A whole new ball game

Content is here to stay and sporting clubs are still learning how to use this strategy effectively. If they stop now, they will become a secondary content provider in our minds rather than a primary one.

The next markets, like Gen Alpha – a generation born into technology from 2010-25 – already have stronger resonance with online content providers like Mr Beast than they do a sports team.

A decade or so ago, most sports and teams used social media primarily to relay match day updates and results, news and merchandise opportunities.

Now, social media is as integral as any other marketing strategy, and the digital environment is fought over just like teams do on the field, court or pitch.

Andrew Hughes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The social media games: why sports teams and leagues aren’t just competing on the field – https://theconversation.com/the-social-media-games-why-sports-teams-and-leagues-arent-just-competing-on-the-field-244273

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Woinarski, Professor of Conservation Biology, Charles Darwin University

More than 95% of Australian animals are invertebrates (animals without backbones – spiders, snails, insects, crabs, worms and others). There are at least 300,000 species of invertebrate in Australia. Of these, two-thirds are unknown to western science.

This means there are huge gaps in our knowledge of Australia’s invertebrates. Our new study, published today in the journal Cambridge Prisms: Extinction, indicates there has been a catastrophic under-recording of Australia’s species extinctions.

Our best estimate is that 9,111 invertebrate species have become extinct in Australia since 1788. This dwarfs the current official estimate of the total number of extinctions across all plant and animal species in Australia: 100.

The extinction of so many invertebrate species is not an arcane concern for those few people who care about bugs. Invertebrates are the building blocks of almost all ecological systems.

Loss of invertebrates will destabilise those systems. It will negatively impact the resources we depend upon, like pollination, cycling of nutrients into the soil, clean air and waterways.

Re-calculating the loss

To date, assessments of historic and ongoing biodiversity loss in Australia have been heavily skewed towards vertebrates, especially mammals and birds. This bias has also driven the efforts to prevent the loss of such species.

These conservation efforts are important. But in having such a focus, we have neglected the invertebrates. We haven’t adequately recognised which invertebrates are at the highest risk of extinction, or which have already been lost.

The most widely used estimate for the total number of extinctions of all Australian plants and animals since 1788 is “just” 100 species.

Of these, only ten are invertebrates. And only one invertebrate species, the Lake Pedder earthworm, is officially listed as extinct by the Australian government.

In our study, we used a range of approaches to estimate a more realistic figure for the number of invertebrate extinctions, and to predict how many will become extinct in 2024.

We took the proportional extinction rates of Australian vertebrates and plants and extrapolated this to the number of Australian invertebrates. Separately, we also extrapolated the proportion of extinctions recognised among all of the world’s invertebrates to the number of Australian ones.

To estimate the current extinction rate – the number of invertebrates that are going extinct as you read this article – we had to make assumptions. One option was that our estimated number of extinctions from 1788 to 2024 fell equally across the years.

However, it’s more likely the annual rate of extinctions of Australian invertebrates has increased over time. This is due to increasing habitat loss and other threats as Australia’s human population has grown.

Any such study will have many unknowns, unavoidable uncertainties and caveats. Because of this, we derived broad bounds to our estimate of Australian invertebrate extinctions. It ranges from about 1,500 species at the lower end to nearly 60,000 at the upper end.

This vast number of extinctions is not simply a historical blemish. Importantly, we estimate that the current rate of extinctions of Australian invertebrates is between one and three species every week.

Most of the Australian invertebrate species that have gone extinct will not yet have been formally described. Many may never be so. We have coined the term “ghost extinctions” for those species that have been lost without a trace – with no evidence they ever existed.

Why so many extinctions?

Many of the factors that have caused extinctions in Australian plants and vertebrates also threaten invertebrates. These include extensive habitat destruction, invasive species, degradation and transformation of aquatic environments, and changed fire regimes.

For invertebrates, added to that cocktail of threats is the widespread use of insecticides, pesticides and herbicides.

Many invertebrates are at high extinction risk because they live in small areas, can’t easily move, and are highly sensitive to change. They also often share habitats, so we get entire groups of highly at-risk invertebrate species hanging on in remnant islands of habitat (known as “centres of endemism”).

Many of these at-risk invertebrates are also members of ancient lineages which stretch back millions of years. They would have survived through a world with dinosaurs and the arrival of mammals. Now, they have met a world with humans.

How can we stop invertebrate extinctions?

Currently, conservation priorities in Australia are informed by formal listings of individual threatened species. It’s an important conservation mechanism, but it fails the vast majority of invertebrate species.

We just don’t have enough data, evidence or resources to list each one. As a result, most imperilled invertebrates are excluded from protection.

Our results are a wake-up call.

Preventing extinctions of invertebrate species is a formidable challenge. A first step is for everyone to be aware of the huge distortion in conservation efforts and awareness, and the likely magnitude of invertebrate extinctions.

We can help lower the rate of invertebrate extinctions, but it will take a shift in thinking.

To provide better protection across all of Australia’s biodiversity, we need to better protect centres of endemism and better control key threats (such as habitat destruction and broad-scale use of insecticides).

Governments and research organisations must give more priority to taxonomic research – the naming and describing of new species. We also need more comprehensive monitoring by government agencies, conservation groups and citizen scientists of invertebrate populations, to identify new threats as they arise and to protect species and places.

In 2022, Australia signed the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. It joined 196 countries pledging a commitment to zero new extinctions.

If Australia is losing one to three invertebrate species per week, the “zero extinctions” goal is pushed into a whole new realm of accountability. Unless we address this decline, that pledge of zero extinctions is destined to failure.

The authors would like to acknowledge the co-authors of this research: Michael Braby, Australian National University; Heloise Gibb, La Trobe University; Mark Harvey, Western Australian Museum; Sarah Legge, Charles Darwin University; Melinda Moir, Western Australia Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development; Brett Murphy, Charles Darwin University; Tim New, La Trobe University; and Michael Rix, Queensland Museum.

John Woinarski is a member of the Biodiversity Council, a Director of the Australian Wildlife Conservancy, and a member of the Science Advisory Committee of Invertebrates Australia.

Jess Marsh is Conservation Lead at Invertebrates Australia, a Councilor on the Biodiversity Council and a member of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Species Survival Commission.

– ref. Around 9,000 species have already gone extinct in Australia and we’ll likely lose another this week – new study – https://theconversation.com/around-9-000-species-have-already-gone-extinct-in-australia-and-well-likely-lose-another-this-week-new-study-241362

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rajeev Pillay, Postdoctoral Fellow in Ecology, University of Northern British Columbia

We are now in the middle of the sixth mass extinction, caused by our emergence as a planet-shaping force. Species are going extinct far faster than the average natural rate of loss.

In response, conservationists are working to safeguard biodiversity strongholds such as tropical rainforests, famed for their remarkable richness of species. Many of these rainforests are household names, from the Amazon to the Congo to Australia’s Daintree and Wet Tropics.

But these rainforests are being steadily cut down or degraded. It’s entirely possible for rainforests to look good in satellite images even though logging, mining or road-building mean they have become poor homes to species able to thrive only in the absence of major human disturbance, such as West Africa’s iconic Diana monkey (Cercopithecus diana).

How much rainforest is still in good condition and able to sustain the Daintree’s cassowaries and tree kangaroos, the Amazon’s sloths and anacondas and the Congo Basin’s forest elephants, bonobos and okapi? We looked at over 16,000 species of mammals, birds, reptiles and amphibians in our new research to answer this question.

At first glance, it seemed like good news – up to 90% of the geographic ranges of these species were still covered in forest. But when we drilled down further, we found the real problem. Barely 25% of the world’s remaining tropical rainforests are still of high quality. For threatened species and those in decline, there’s just 8% of their habitat left in good condition.

What makes a rainforest high quality?

To protect rainforests, conservationists have long focused on a key goal: reduce deforestation. The theory is that by slowing or stopping the rate at which trees are felled, rainforest habitat can be preserved.

We measure deforestation by looking at rates of native forest cover loss and assessing the size of the remaining canopy. But while forest cover is vital for many species, it’s not enough. Maintaining forest cover without considering its quality means ignoring major human sources of damage, such as logging, roadbuilding and mining which make rainforests increasingly degraded.

Degraded rainforests aren’t lifeless. They’re often full of life. But the species you find are usually those that thrive in disturbed, open areas such as the edges of forest, roadsides and agricultural lands. Such species take advantage of human-made disturbance to expand. This comes at the expense of many other forest dependent species, who often decline or disappear.

To be able to distinguish high quality from degraded rainforests, our team used high-resolution imagery of global rainforests from three NASA satellites to calculate the height of trees, canopy cover and how long the rainforest had stood without pressure from human industries.

We combined these three variables into a single measure of forest structural condition and overlaid our results with a map of major industrial human pressures such as expansion of cities, creation of farmland and building roads.

Bringing these data sources together lets us rank the condition of rainforests, which we dub the Forest Structural Integrity Index, first developed in 2020.

High quality rainforests have a multi-layered structure – a lower understorey of shrubs and small trees, a midstorey of medium trees, a canopy of the taller trees and an emergent layer where unusually tall trees poke through the sea of green.

In forests degraded by logging, very tall, tall and medium trees are logged or severely damaged, while the understorey is overtaken by dense brush. We know high quality rainforests are linked to a lower risk of extinction for vertebrates.

High quality rainforest is getting harder to find

In our research, we define high quality rainforest as those left undisturbed since 2000, with little pressure from human industry. These forests have over 75% canopy cover and trees over 15 metres, indicating they are older.

High quality forests are better homes for wildlife than degraded forests, when we look at how many species live there, how plentiful these species are and how broad and functional the ecosystem is. High quality rainforests also provide irreplaceable ecosystem services to the planet and humans, such as stabilising the climate by sequestering large amounts of carbon in their wood.

Unfortunately, our new research shows the extent of the damage we have done. Only a fraction of rainforest cover can now be considered high quality habitat for over 16,000 mammal, bird, reptile and amphibian species – even though 90% of their geographic ranges are still “forested”.

What does this look like? Take the golden bowerbird (Prionodura newtonia), endemic to Queensland’s Wet Tropics. Its habitat appears well preserved, with 84% of its range still forested. But when we drill down, we find only 36% of the rainforest can still be considered high quality.

In West Africa’s rainforests, the Diana monkey still has forests covering 80% of its range – but just 0.7% of high quality.

What should we do?

These findings are a wake-up call. They suggest many seemingly safe species could be at real risk of extinction. Just because a forest is still standing doesn’t mean it’s able to be a home.

This points to the urgency of stopping deforestation as rapidly as possible. Our last tracts of undisturbed tropical rainforest have to be protected.

But it also shows us that ending deforestation isn’t enough by itself. Many of the world’s surviving rainforests are not in great shape. We should let these rainforests recover by banning industrial-scale timber extraction, road building and other major pressures.

In 2022, nations promised to end the routine destruction of tropical rainforests and other highly biodiverse areas within a decade.

We’re halfway to 2030, and tropical rainforests are still being felled or burned, even if there are some signs of progress.

Changing course away from a human-made mass extinction means redoubling our efforts to safeguard tropical rainforests, for nature and for us.

James Watson has received funding from the Australian Research Council, National Environmental Science Program, South Australia’s Department of Environment and Water, Queensland’s Depart of Environment, Science and Innovation as well as from Bush Heritage Australia, Queensland Conservation Council, Australian Conservation Foundation, The Wilderness Society and Birdlife Australia. He serves on the scientific committee of BirdLife Australia and has a long-term scientific relationship with Bush Heritage Australia and Wildlife Conservation Society. He serves on the Queensland Government’s Land Restoration Fund’s Investment Panel as the Deputy Chair.

Rajeev Pillay does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Ravaged jungle: just 25% of the world’s surviving tropical rainforests are in good condition – https://theconversation.com/ravaged-jungle-just-25-of-the-worlds-surviving-tropical-rainforests-are-in-good-condition-245475

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sujatha Raman, Professor and UNESCO Chair-holder, Australian National University

Signed exactly 76 years ago today, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights is the world’s most translated document. It is widely acknowledged as the foundation of international human rights work, not just in legal settings but in wider civil society.

But few know that among the many social and political freedoms defined by the declaration is a human right to science. Article 27 of the declaration positions this right in the cultural sphere, stating:

Everyone has the right freely to participate in the cultural life of the community, to enjoy the arts and to share in scientific advancement and its benefits.

This right might seem meaningless at a time when governments around the world have slashed funding for science and appear to be ignoring scientific evidence for how to address global problems such as climate change.

But there’s much more to the right to science than what you might immediately think of. It can also serve as a spark for human imagination and curiosity. And this is where its true power resides.

The evolution of the right to science

Interpretations of the right to science have evolved a lot over the past decade.

It was initially interpreted mainly as the right of scientists to do their research and the public’s right to access and benefit from this research. But this led to no small share of conundrums. For example, what if the right to do research is at odds with the human rights of affected communities?

This conflict arises in virtually all fields, from anthropology and archaeology to computer science and the life sciences. For example, building a laboratory or collecting data for research can potentially put a community at risk of losing their heritage, identity or livelihood. Some scholars therefore argue that the right should also include a duty to anticipate and take steps to ameliorate such tensions.

The United States National Academies have also begun to recognise that access and benefit doesn’t automatically follow from biomedical research. In fact, research may increase inequities if it’s not conducted in line with the principles of fairness, justice, equity and the common good.

Equally, what are we forgetting if we treat the public only as a beneficiary of science done by credentialed researchers?

The right to science is also about the right to participate in science and in decisions about research.

For example, it means Indigenous peoples have the right to be recognised as knowledge producers – a sentiment captured in Australia by researchers acknowledging that First Nations peoples are also the First Astronomers.

The International Science Council’s recently released framework nicely captures these nuances. It states that the right allows people to participate in and enjoy the benefits of science.

The right to science as a force for curiosity

Most of these discussions see the right to science as a way to protect fundamental freedoms – conjoined with responsibilities – of both scientists and the public. But a different meaning emerges when we remember the right to science is also a cultural right.

In a keynote address to an international conference in Switzerland in 2015, Farida Shaheed, the former United Nations Special Rapporteur for Cultural Rights, explained how the right to science and the right to culture are inextricably linked. Both entail, she said, the conditions for:

people to reconsider, create and contribute to cultural meanings, expressions, or manifestations and ways of life.

This highlights how the right to science can serve as a force to galvanise the more positive role of curiosity and the imagination. As such, it can be a spark for a new ethos of curiosity-driven research for the planet.

Curiosity in a time of crisis

The role of science in policy making and practice is at a crossroads.

Governments routinely invoke geopolitical competitiveness and commercial success as reasons for supporting research – particularly on so-called “critical technologies” such as quantum computing.

Yet the planet faces interconnected crises of climate change, pollution, biodiversity loss and deepening inequalities. The response to this must therefore include all of humanity while creating space for researchers to be curious about different possible futures and pathways for designing them.

The International Science Council’s initiative on Science Missions for Sustainability is predicated on the understanding that we won’t achieve the ambitions of the United Nations 2030 agenda with siloed thinking or new technologies alone. The council calls for all disciplines to work together to produce actionable knowledge oriented towards practical solutions for our planetary challenges.

Humans thrive on curiosity even in times of crisis. We have many examples from the 20th century of curiosity-driven research yielding a “giant pool of ideas” from which came many of the technologies we take for granted today. The challenge now is to harness and support this curiosity in ways appropriate to the scale and scope of the challenges we currently face.

We know from history that worlds are created and changed not just through new technologies and market-based solutions, but also through culture and social innovation.

The right to science provides a welcome stimulus for thinking more deeply, creatively and curiously about these interrelationships in developing policies for research.

Sujatha Raman receives funding from the Rio Tinto Centre for Future Materials led by Imperial College London. She has previously received funding from CSIRO, the Wellcome Trust, Leverhulme Trust and UK Research Councils.

Brian Schmidt has received funding from the Australian Research Council. He is a non-executive Board Member of Astronomy Australia Limited, and the Giant Magellan Telescope Observatory, is Chair of Singapore’s Academic Research Council, and is on the Research Board of CIFAR.

– ref. The human right to science is 76 years old. It’s a reminder for us all to be more curious – https://theconversation.com/the-human-right-to-science-is-76-years-old-its-a-reminder-for-us-all-to-be-more-curious-245158

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Caroline Gurvich, Associate Professor and Clinical Neuropsychologist, Monash University

By 2050, around 135 million people worldwide will be living with dementia. The most common cause of dementia is Alzheimer’s disease. Women are more likely than men to develop Alzheimer’s disease, even after accounting for women living longer.

The symptoms of Alzheimer’s disease most commonly occur after the age of 65. However, changes in the brain begin decades before symptoms start. For women, this typically coincides with their transition to menopause.

Menopause results from the body decreasing production of two hormones made by the ovaries: oestrogen and progesterone. These hormonal changes are associated with a wide range of symptoms, including hot flushes, night sweats, difficulties sleeping, reduced libido, mood changes and brain fog.

Menopause hormonal therapy (also called hormone replacement therapy or HRT), including oestrogen alone or oestrogen combined with a progesterone, has been prescribed to help with menopausal symptoms for decades.

But how does menopause hormone therapy affect the risk of dementia? And why do some studies say the therapy increases the risk, while others say it reduces it?

Hormones and the brain

A large body of pre-clinical (animal based) research shows oestrogen helps protect the brain. It reduces any damage to nerve cells and supports overall brain health.

Receptors that respond to oestrogen are in areas of the brain related to reproductive functions. But they’re also in areas of the brain important for learning, memory and higher-order cognitive abilities such as planning, organisation and decision making.

The loss of the “neuroprotective” effects of oestrogen after menopause is thought to contribute to more cases of Alzheimer’s disease in women than men.

Clinical studies have also shown women who have a medical or surgical menopause before the age of natural menopause have a higher lifelong risk of dementia and cognitive impairment.

This risk appears to be reduced in women who take oestrogen therapy after their surgery.

This has led researchers to hypothesise that adding oestrogen back – via menopause hormone therapy – might protect and maintain women’s cognitive health.

However, the research findings have not been consistent.

Could menopause hormone therapy impact dementia risk?

Concern about dementia risk and menopause hormone therapy have been partially driven by the unexpected findings from a landmark study conducted more than two decades ago.

The findings showed hormone therapy use in post-menopausal women, 65 years and older, was associated with an increased risk for dementia.

However, these studies have some key limitations:

1) most of the women were aged over 65 and more than ten years post-menopause

2) the type of oestrogen and progestogen (a synthetic form of progesterone) used may have less benefit on brain health.

The most recently published systematic review and meta-analysis of scientific data linking hormone therapy to the risk of Alzheimer’s disease included findings from 51 different reports that were published up to 2023.

The results showed if hormone therapy was initiated in midlife, or more generally within ten  years of the final menstrual period, there was a decreased risk of later-life Alzheimer’s disease compared to women not using any hormone therapy.

The greatest reduction in risk was associated with oestrogen-only hormone therapy.

In contrast, when considering using hormone therapy in late-life, or more than ten  years after menopause, oestrogen-only therapy had a neutral effects on Alzheimer’s disease risk.

However, oestrogen-progestogen therapy was associated with a risk increase.

Only one clinical trial has been published since this meta-analysis. This study examined the long-term effects of menopause hormone therapy use initiated in early menopause.

Women were on average aged 52.8 years and 1.5 years post-menopause when they entered this trial. They were randomly assigned to an oestrogen (with or without progestogen) or placebo for four years.

Researchers followed 275 women up ten years later. They found no cognitive effects (no harm nor any benefit) based on whether women were exposed to 48 months of hormone therapy or a placebo.

What affects your risk?

It appears the effects of menopause hormone therapy on dementia risk are influenced by several factors. These include when someone starts taking it, how long they take it for, the type of hormones used, and the person’s genetic and health background.

1. When therapy starts: the critical window hypothesis

One key factor in determining the effect of menopause hormone therapy on cognitive function and the risk of dementia appears to be when therapy starts relative to menopause. This is called the “critical window hypothesis”.

According to this hypothesis, oestrogen may help protect neurons in the brain only if started early in the menopause transition, particularly within a few years of menopause, when the brain may still be more responsive to hormones.

2. Type of menopause hormone therapy and the role of progesterone

The type of hormones included in hormone therapy can vary widely in their molecular structure as well as their physiological actions.

Different types of oestrogens (such as estradiol or conjugated oestrogen) and the inclusion of a progestogen (needed for women who have not undergone a hysterectomy) may have different impacts on brain health and dementia risk.

Some studies suggest adding a progestogen to oestrogen therapy could counteract some of the cognitive benefits of oestrogen alone, possibly by blocking oestrogen receptors in the brain.

3. The role of vasomotor symptoms

Vasomotor symptoms, such as hot flushes and night sweats, are the hallmark of menopause. Experiencing more vasomotor symptoms has been linked to poorer memory as well as an increase in biological markers associated with dementia risk.

Therefore, one possible pathway by which menopause hormone therapy may moderate Alzheimer’s disease risk is via their effects on reducing vasomotor symptoms.

4. An person’s genetic and health background

The greatest genetic risk factor for older-onset Alzheimer’s disease is carrying one or more copies of a specific version of the APOE gene, called APOE e4.

There is an emerging hypothesis that women who have this genetic risk for Alzheimer’s disease may show the greatest benefit from using hormone therapy.

What does this mean for you?

The clinical and scientific community are still debating whether menopause hormone therapy may play a role in Alzheimer’s disease risk.

Overall, the decision to use hormone therapy should be individualised, taking into account your age and timing of menopause, health status and specific menopause symptoms.

We need more research before we can make clear decisions about the role of hormone therapy and dementia risk, but based on the current evidence, hormone therapy may be beneficial if started early in the menopause transition, particularly for women at genetic risk of Alzheimer’s disease.

Caroline Gurvich has previously received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, the Rebecca Cooper Foundation and Perpetual Trustees.

Samantha Loi has previously received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, the Yulgibar Alzheimer’s Research Program and Young Peoples in Nursing Home National Alliance.

Rachel Furey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Does menopause hormone therapy increase or decrease your risk of dementia? Here’s the science – https://theconversation.com/does-menopause-hormone-therapy-increase-or-decrease-your-risk-of-dementia-heres-the-science-242111

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Diane Colombelli-Négrel, Senior Lecturer, Animal Behaviour, Flinders University

On Granite Island off South Australia, a colony of little penguins is fighting to survive. About two decades ago, the penguins numbered 1,600 adults – now there are just 30.

It is important for scientists to monitor and study this little penguin colony, to observe their behaviours and stop their numbers from declining.

In our latest research project, my colleagues and I captured footage of the penguins over several breeding seasons, as part of a study into their parenting behaviours. It provides a fascinating behind-the-scenes glimpse into the unseen world of these vulnerable birds.

So let’s take a look at what Granite Island’s little penguins get up to when humans aren’t watching.

The world’s tiniest penguin

Little penguins (Eudyptula novaehollandiae) are the world’s smallest penguin species. They typically grow to about 35 centimetres and weigh an average 1.2 kilograms. They live in coastal waters in Tasmania and southern Australia – including on Granite Island, about 100 kilometres south of Adelaide.

The island is connected to the mainland by a causeway, and draws up to 800,000 visitors a year.

The stark decline in little penguin numbers on Granite Island is due to several factors. They include predators such as fur seals and foxes, changing environmental conditions, declines in fish numbers, and human disturbance.

My colleagues and I have spent years studying the Granite Island penguin colony. Our latest research gathered thousands of hours of footage to determine if a particular personality trait – boldness – affected the penguins’ breeding and parenting.

Home after a day at sea

The footage starts with a stream of little penguins waddling under a boardwalk, returning from sea. They have spent most of the day in the water, hunting for food such as fish and squid. Little penguins forage about their body weight in food every day.

The penguins return to their nests after dark, to rest and feed their chicks. They do this in groups – possibly to avoid predators – before heading to their separate burrows.

They tend to travel quietly, to avoid attracting attention. But out at sea or back in their burrows, little penguins can be quite vocal, making sounds such as short quacks, growls and brays.

The footage shows one penguin bumping into another in the dark – but this doesn’t mean they don’t see well. Little penguins have excellent vision, even at night. Because the birds don’t move well on land, they often feel exposed and in a hurry to get home.

The birds are quite territorial and can get into disputes with others in the colony. The footage shows two males fighting by standing tall and pecking each other. One is probably defending its nest.

Hello, lover

Little penguins are monogamous. The breeding season runs over spring and summer, when there is lots of food around.

Males establish the burrows, which are usually in rock crevices or under thick vegetation. They then try to attract a female by demonstrating their quality – either through vocal displays or defending territory.

The footage shows a male and female penguin greeting each other, before getting down to business. Then we cut away, to give the lovebirds some privacy!

Across a breeding season, little penguin pairs typically rear one or two clutches during autumn and winter. Each clutch consists of one or two eggs. The penguins take turns sitting on the eggs while the other feeds at sea.

Keeping their plumage looking tip-top

In the footage we see two little penguins preening themselves during a quiet moment. This is important to remove parasites and keep their plumage healthy.

Despite their small bodies, little penguins have an estimated 10,000 feathers. The feathers are downy at the base, providing a layer of insulation which helps keep them warm during long days at sea.

The feathers are also waterproof thanks to an oily liquid the penguins secrete from a gland near their tails, which they spread over their body when preening.

Now for some family time

After the eggs hatch, the parents take turns to guard their chicks for three weeks while the partner fishes at sea. When this period ends, the parents leave the chicks alone in the burrow while they fish, returning every one to five days to feed them.

The footage shows the chicks excitedly jumping on a parent in the nest. We also see the chicks practising their vocal calls and stretching their tiny wings by flapping them madly. This is all important practice for being a grown-up penguin.

The parent-offspring relationship was the focus of our new research. When humans are around a lot – as they are at Granite Island – penguins can be bolder and more aggressive. We predicted bold individuals would invest less time in parental care, as has previously been observed in other bird species.

But this was not the case. We found a penguin’s boldness has no bearing on its performance as a parent, such as how often it returned to the nest, fed its chicks, or stayed overnight.

The next phase of our research will examine factors such as the quality of food the parents feed to chicks, or whether personality traits other than boldness might affect their child-rearing.

Protecting our little penguins

Humans are disturbing animal habitats at an alarming rate. We intend to keep studying – and filming – Granite Island’s little penguins to understand how this pressure is affecting them.

If you are ever lucky enough to observe little penguins anywhere in Australia, please take care of them by sticking to a few simple guidelines outlined in full here.

They include:

• stay at least five metres away
• don’t use camera flashes – it can temporarily blind the penguin
• don’t shine a torch directly at the penguin
• keep dogs away at all times
• don’t get between a penguin and its burrow or chicks.

Diane Colombelli-Négrel receives funding from the Waterhouse Club, Friends of Encounter Birds, the Save
Granite Island Penguins Committee, the Sir Mark Mitchell Foundation and DEW Environment Citizen Science Small Grants.

– ref. ‘Unseen world’: researchers capture fascinating footage of the world’s smallest penguins in a bid to save them – https://theconversation.com/unseen-world-researchers-capture-fascinating-footage-of-the-worlds-smallest-penguins-in-a-bid-to-save-them-245472

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robin Smit, Adjunct Professor, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Technology Sydney

Road transport is responsible for a substantial share of global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. So reducing these emissions is a high priority.

In the European Union (EU), CO₂ emissions from new passenger cars have been regulated for more than 15 years. The range of policy measures includes mandatory CO₂ emission targets.

But Australia’s mandatory New Vehicle Efficiency Standard will only come in next year, without other supporting policy measures.

In our new research, my colleagues and I compared the two car fleets and examined their emissions in detail. We found Australian cars are typically larger, heavier and less efficient, producing 43% more emissions than their EU counterparts. The results demonstrate the vital role of well-designed, ambitious policies and regulations in driving down emissions.

What we did

Car emissions by country depends on many factors. These include the level of dependence on cars, travel behaviour, consumer preferences, marketing, car types and sizes, fuel efficiency requirements, purchase price, running costs and, importantly, government policies.

Policy levers range from financial incentives, taxes and regulations through to other measures such as information campaigns.

In collaboration with the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, we collected information about the respective car fleets in Europe and Australia.

We obtained region-specific vehicle specifications including vehicle sales, car make and model, weight, size, rated power, battery capacity and certified emissions performance. We extracted this from previous studies, publicly available data sets and information in Europe and Australia.

We then fed this information into detailed simulation models to estimate emissions in a wide range of real-world conditions, for each fleet. This included the effects of different driving conditions and climates.

What we found

Our research revealed Australian cars are larger and heavier than EU cars, which has direct consequences for emissions.

New vehicles in both the EU and Australia must be certified, with their fuel consumption and emissions tested against emission limits, before they can be sold.

But the test procedure differs between the EU and Australia. The EU uses a modern procedure, whereas Australia still uses an outdated and unrealistic test developed in the 1970s – ironically called the New European Drive Cycle test.

In the four years from 2018 to 2021, the difference between certified CO₂ emissions of new cars registered in Australia and the EU increased by 20%. This was mainly due to the more rapid rise of EVs in Europe.

Then there’s the difference between certified emissions and what actually happens on the road, often referred to as the “gap”. We found the gap between certified CO₂ emissions and real-world emissions is larger in Australia. In Europe the average gap for petrol and diesel cars is 15–20%, whereas in Australia it is 30–35%.

Differences in vehicle weight and size, driving style, climate, and the use of air conditioning contribute, but the outdated test protocol is a major factor.

The gap is particularly large for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle emissions are three to four times higher on the road in both Europe and Australia.

Why? Largely because certified emissions performance assumes these vehicles will drive in electric mode 75–90% of the time, while the reality is more like 25%. So in practice, these vehicles mostly drive around as high-emitting petrol or diesel cars.

Overall, we estimated the real-world CO₂ emissions of the registered on road fleets in 2021 were 143 grams per kilometre for the EU and and 204 grams per kilometre for Australia. This means the average Australian car on the road is producing 43% more greenhouse gas emissions than the average EU car.

Mandatory CO₂ emission targets work

Our research shows mandatory CO₂ emission targets are effective in reducing emissions from both (new) passenger cars and, over time, the fleet as a whole. But this only happens if they are well designed.

With its long-standing regulations, the EU has significantly reduced CO₂ emissions, mainly through increased sales of low- or zero-emission vehicles. Conversely, Australia has relied on ineffective voluntary emission standards so far, with relatively slow uptake of electric vehicles and slow or even no progress in reducing emissions as a result.

We found the shift towards electric vehicles is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality goals. Having a higher proportion of zero- and low-emission cars in new EU car sales was the main reason the region’s 2020 emission reduction targets were met.

Without this, 70% of manufacturers would have failed to meet the EU standards. That’s because the emissions performance of conventional diesel and petrol cars have hardly improved.

This is in line with recent research that found only a shift to lightweight battery-electric vehicles, alongside deep decarbonisation of the electricity grid, will get Australia close to net zero by 2050.

Both regions have designed similar paths for future emissions reduction efforts. However, EU targets have been set for a longer term (2015-35). Australia has only set annual targets for the period 2025 to 2029.

Our research suggests sales of battery electric cars will need to increase in each region to meet future CO₂ emissions targets. In the EU, electric vehicle sales will need to hit 50% by 2030 to meet its target. In Australia, electric vehicle sales will need to reach 60% by 2029 to meet its more lenient target.

Shaping future policy

As the EU shows, setting ambitious, effective and legally binding emissions targets can drive innovation and transform markets.

But mandatory targets are not enough on their own. Complementary policies are needed, such as providing incentives to purchase electric cars, and developing charging infrastructure. This holistic approach looks beyond vehicle technology to also consider solutions such as promoting active travel, improving public transport and reducing the need for travel altogether.

Our research also clearly shows Australia needs to update official test procedures. It’s crucial to include on-board fuel consumption monitoring in the new standard, as is done in Europe, to monitor real-world fuel/electricity use and emissions.

Future regulations should consider incorporating the emissions over the life of a vehicle from manufacturing and fuel/energy production to recycling and disposal.

Accurate information for consumers, as well as properly designed government policies, will help Australia finally start reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transport.

Robin Smit is the founding Research Director at the Transport Energy/Emission Research (TER) consultancy.

– ref. Australians’ cars are typically larger, heavier and less efficient than in Europe – here’s why – https://theconversation.com/australians-cars-are-typically-larger-heavier-and-less-efficient-than-in-europe-heres-why-243834

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chris Ogden, Associate Professor in Global Studies, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

Anyone who has followed New Zealand’s protracted trade negotiations with India will know any new announcement of progress needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters’ hint last week that talks may be resuming is therefore best taken as a sign of optimism rather than anything more tangible. After all, negotiations go back as far as 2010, but had largely stalled by 2015.

A lot has changed since then, not least the advent of a second Trump presidency in the US, and shifting power balances in the Asia-Pacific region exemplified by the AUKUS security pact.

Wellington’s desire for a free trade agreement with New Delhi is clearly already a delicate balancing act. These new dynamics will make it more delicate still. But engaging with India remains vital, given its increasingly prominent global influence.

In many ways, India’s rise is not unlike China’s was – and New Zealand can learn from its trade and diplomatic relationships with Beijing. If India is roughly where China was 15 years ago, we can see clear portents of what the future holds.

India’s rise

In 2023, India’s GDP was US$14.54 trillion, the world’s fourth largest economy, behind the United States, China and the European Union. China hit that level during 2009.

But India’s current annual GDP growth of 7.6% now outstrips all those other countries. If maintained, it will result in India matching China’s 2023 GDP of $34.64 trillion in 14 years. Given India’s population overtook China’s in 2023, that timeframe may be smaller.

India’s expanding financial capacity has been matched by growing military expenditure. In 2023, India spent $83.57 billion on defence, third behind the US and China. Beijing was spending an equivalent amount in 2009.

India was also the world’s largest arms importer from 1950 to 2023. Like the US, China and Russia, it possesses a “nuclear triad” of land-based, submarine and airborne capability.

Like China, India has a large landmass (the world’s seventh largest) and is pivotal to trade routes crossing the Indian Ocean, as well as being close to China, the preeminent trading nation at the heart of the Indo-Pacific region.

Negative realities

India, like China, is also led by a forceful, self-assured and outspoken autocrat. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is one of the world’s two largest political groups – the other is Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Both leaders harness often strident domestic nationalism and common colonial histories to inspire popular notions of being or becoming great powers.

But exceptionally high levels and prolonged periods of economic growth – averaging 9.33% per year from 1980 to 2022 in China, and 6.46% per year from 1990 to 2023 in India – also put national development goals at risk.

High energy consumption and levels of pollution have seen natural environments deteriorate in both countries. And both India and China have suffered from endemic corruption since liberalising their economies.

Prevalent political dynasties in India – the equivalent of China’s “princelings” (the offspring or relatives-by-marriage of Communist Party veterans) – concentrate wealth and privilege within elites.

And, like China, India also stands accused of repressing ethnic and religious minorities, particularly against the Muslim portion of Kashmir and against various communities in the northeast, particularly in Assam.

Future fractures

Despite those human rights concerns, both India and China have – at different times – been courted and engaged by the West for strategic reasons.

In the 1970s, the US sought closer relations with China as a countermeasure against the Soviet Union, at the time Washington’s primary rival. Nowadays, the US seeks enhanced ties with India to counter the rise of China.

Both approaches were and are open to accusations of shortsightedness and political cynicism. The US rapprochement with China in the 1970s occurred during the depths of the Cultural Revolution, and Washington was muted in its criticism of the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989.

Similarly, the perceived need to curb China’s rising power and influence means the West is prepared to work around India’s internal political realities. But this has arguably emboldened Indian foreign policy, with its intelligence services accused of targeting Sikh separatists in Canada, the UK and the US.

As contemporary US-China relations tip towards what has been called a “new Cold War”, one can imagine a future where the US and India face off in the same way. Given India’s trajectory, that might happen as soon as 2040.

Were that to happen – and given China’s slowing economy, ageing population and decoupling from the West – then India may well become China’s successor.

Of course, we can’t predict the future, but all of these considerations will need to be part of New Zealand’s calculations if and when trade negotiations with India truly begin in earnest. And they must remain part of Wellington’s wider strategic calculations in the decades to come.

Chris Ogden is a Senior Research Fellow with The Foreign Policy Centre, London.

– ref. India is the new China – NZ needs to see the bigger picture in trade negotiations – https://theconversation.com/india-is-the-new-china-nz-needs-to-see-the-bigger-picture-in-trade-negotiations-245557