Page 1224

Across the Ditch: NZ PM’s Big UN Splash + All Black Coach Wants North V South Hemisphere Champs

Across the Ditch: Australian radio FiveAA.com.au’s Peter Godfrey and EveningReport.nz’s Selwyn Manning deliver their weekly bulletin, Across the Ditch. This week: Weather comparison; NZ headlines; In depth: New Zealand’s Prime Minister has just concluded charing the United Nations Security Council and delivering a speech to the UN General Assembly. Sport: The All Black coach Steve Hansen wants the winner of the Six Nations Rugby champs in the Northern Hemisphere to play the winner of the Southern Hemisphere’s Rugby Championship competition. He says if that became an annual event it would certainly inject zest into the game at an international level. Across the Ditch broadcasts live weekly on Australia radio’s FiveAA.com.au and webcasts on EveningReport.nz and LiveNews.co.nz and ForeignAffairs.co.nz.]]>

Sweeney Todd A Horror Story Then and Now – Not Quite A Gonzo Review

Selwyn Manning, editor – EveningReport.nz

Review by Selwyn Manning

A ghastly tale of horror and intrigue looms for Wellington and Christchurch theatre-goers as New Zealand Opera sharpens its knives before its Auckland consumers – but beware, this story of Sweeney Todd may compel you to think.

Sweeney Todd is one awful story. And the tale is retold so well by this rendition of Stephen Sondheim’s musical horror, that at times you can almost smell it, how rotten Victorian London was. But is its power to compel dread found in the mirror this story presents?

Introduction to Sweeney:

Teddy Tahu Rhodes as Sweeney Todd, NZ Opera, Civic Theatre, Auckland, New Zealand, Thursday, September 15, 2016. Photo: David Rowland / One-Image.com
Teddy Tahu Rhodes as Sweeney Todd, NZ Opera, Civic Theatre, Auckland, New Zealand, Thursday, September 15, 2016. Photo: David Rowland / One-Image.com

Many of you will be familiar with the story: how Sweeney Todd was once happy and married to a delightful and true wife, how the couple were blessed by a loved and loving daughter, how a corrupt judge coveted their world, how his class and power was a privilege of his time, how the ugliness of obsession became compulsion, how he convicted Sweeney on a trumped up charge, sentenced him to life as a prisoner of mother England to be served within the penal colony of Australia, and then when the beauty within the Todd family turned vulnerable the judge set out to devour all of that which was left of Sweeney Todd’s world.

Some fifteen years later, Sweeney Todd escapes, returns to England and seeks revenge against those who destroyed what he loved. In a way it’s a brilliant story, the ghastly deeds committed by Sweeney and Mrs Lovett mask the true monster of class and inequality, the abandonment of meritocracy, the privileged’s indifference and consequential loathing for those cast below it.

Indeed, Sondheim’s story transports us to an earlier time to when Victorian England was rotten to the core. Such tales, when performed well, transport us not only to another time, but conjure up the opportunity to compare their lot to ours. Often, we are delighted to realise how far we have come culturally. But then, as all forms of good art do, especially when performed as superbly as New Zealand Opera is renowned, we find ourselves challenged by our own Contemporarianism.

Antoinette Halloran and Teddy Tahu Rhodes in Sweeney Todd, NZ Opera, Civic Theatre, Auckland, New Zealand, Thursday, September 15, 2016. Photo: David Rowland / One-Image.com
Antoinette Halloran and Teddy Tahu Rhodes in Sweeney Todd, NZ Opera, Civic Theatre, Auckland, New Zealand, Thursday, September 15, 2016. Photo: David Rowland / One-Image.com

Prelude To Sweeney – Masterclass: On preparing to attend this opera, I chose to wear tidy but casual pants. I donned a nice shirt rather than white shirt-black tie attire, and the jacket was almost unworn but was perhaps more suited to the cool weather outside than the Civic’s special magic.

Perhaps, in hindsight, I should confess, it was a little test. Some opera-goers are notorious for being a tad snobby, and Sweeney Todd was too rich to resist.

Were Auckland’s elite happy that New Zealand Opera was performing this Sondheim ‘musical’ only to risk broadening the audience demographic?

We had chosen not to enter via the Civic’s red carpet, but rather through the right-hand side entrance.

We made for the booking office and were greeted wonderfully as always by New Zealand Opera’s staff.

With tickets in hand and having been presented with a fabulously produced and written programme, we sought not to mingle but made for the theatre’s stalls.

The ushers were delightful in guiding us to our row, then our seats. We settled in, relaxed, gazed upward and about as we always do when inside the marvelous Civic theatre.

We politely stood up, as is the custom, to let others squeeze passed as allocated seats were sought.

Then, a dreadful moment presented as one very finely suited man of considerable height and an air of boardroom elegance squeezed passed to loom above us.

Before realising we were perhaps considered casts of a lesser God, the man paused time to insist, in his patiently expressed but obviously refined vowels, that we were sitting in his seats! “Are you sure,” I replied intoning a suggestion rather than question. “Positive,” he retorted.

As I traversed my mind to consider the scale of probabilities, he beat me to it and snapped: “Show me your tickets!”

I reached for my pocket electing to annoy by deploying the Union tactic of a ‘go slow’.

But once the evidence was presented I am sad to report that on inspection, it was proven that the ‘person’ who was to become the focus of my societal-comparative-analysis was indeed correct.

We had been ushered to the wrong row, the wrong seats, and I had failed to check the bloody tickets.

Needless to say dejection set in before ejection was sought and shamefully it became our lot to squeeze passed the polite-and-the-tolerant and search out our seats with haste before the Civic’s magical shooting star heralded our journey back to acceptability to another time and place. And transported we were.

The Resurrection and the Performance:

Cast of Sweeney Todd, NZ Opera, Civic Theatre, Auckland, New Zealand, Thursday, September 15, 2016. Photo: David Rowland / One-Image.com
Cast of Sweeney Todd, NZ Opera, Civic Theatre, Auckland, New Zealand, Thursday, September 15, 2016. Photo: David Rowland / One-Image.com

Within seconds of the superb Auckland Philharmonia’s conductor Benjamin Northey instructing his organist to bellow out a most agonising sequence of chords, two things came to mind: Vincent Price, and, how as children, one of my brothers and I used to nick the keys to the church next door, sit on the organ stool, pump the treadle while depressing the lowest note that old Gherty could muster.

There rumbling out a diabolical racket, we would smart with devilish grin knowing our mother wouldn’t be too far away to save the community from the horror story score we had conducted.

From the first note, I had one foot in Sweeney Todd present and the other in a past which seems too long ago. Director Stuart Maunder AM has achieved something special here. He has ensured his cast performs to their strengths. And it works.

Teddy Tahu Rhodes, with respect to you, from the moment you appeared as a demon among the light you became our Sweeney Todd.

Rhodes’ voice… people if you want to hear what a real baritone sounds like then you have to see and hear this guy perform this role.

He makes Caiaphas in JC Superstar sound like a genteel grandfather.

When Rhodes speaks as Sweeney, all before him become captors with a compulsion to listen. And thank you for that, as Sweeney’s message is powerful. In performance, voice has many elements where the unspoken whispers to the inner you.

Could it be that Sweeney Todd compels us to consider what kind of character in truth we have become?

It is true that Rhodes channels a horror that lurks within Sweeney, and within this character there is time and space to pause, to consider, to realise cause and effect.

Rhodes’ strength plants Sweeney Todd’s feet firmly on the ground, which choreographs well opposite soprano Antoinette Halloran who is cast as his offsider Mrs Lovett. Halloran is the yang of his yin (or considering the characters, is it the other way around).

In any case, Halloran is a master of comic timing and centre-stage presence. And she has to be to make this production of Sweeney Todd work.

It is simply due to a well-learned and earned talent that by degrees she allows her audience to sense that perhaps Mrs Lovett’s beguiling charm is but a cloak that conceals a duality – an oscillation between hope and construct, an intention caught between love and greed that morphs into a ghastly heart.

Helen Medlyn as the Beggar Woman in Sweeney Todd, NZ Opera, Civic Theatre, Auckland, New Zealand, Thursday, September 15, 2016. Photo: David Rowland / One-Image.com
Helen Medlyn as the Beggar Woman in Sweeney Todd, NZ Opera, Civic Theatre, Auckland, New Zealand, Thursday, September 15, 2016. Photo: David Rowland / One-Image.com

The story has its diversions. The plight of the young potential lovers, Johanna and Anthony Hope (performed superbly by Amelia Berry and James Benjamin Rodgers) is vital so as to accentuate a corruption manifest in the evil Judge Turpin (Phillip Rhodes), the horribly sycophantic Beadle Bamford (Andrew Glover), the tragedy that becomes Tobias Ragg (performed by the marvelous Joel Granger), and the hilarity of arch-crook Pirelli (performed by Robert Tucker).

Another special mention: it pays to pay attention to the Beggar Woman (so wonderfully performed by Helen Medlyn) for she holds the key to a very clever flick of the knife.

Once again production designer Roger Kirk has created a marvelous set that anchors, transforms and transports, and yes that summary includes that dreadful barber’s chair.

Prologue to Sweeney: On exiting the Civic, my man was there standing centre-stage upon the red carpet. He had chosen not to exit but rather juxtapositioned his back to the entrance (perhaps a barrier to the hordes outside).

Again he towered above all others and sought to chat, to mingle, and again we squeezed passed with thought. The freshness of pre-equinox air greeted us, the vibe on the street was joyous. Theatre-goers were well pleased with Sweeney Todd.

Lovers lined up to share ice-creams near a shop where Royal Dalton was once sold.

On the south-side of Queen Street I felt delighted to realise the decrepit Kerridge Odeon buildings had been demolished before noticing a man to my left of prime working age and inclination sat on a blanket holding a cardboard sign that read: “Can you help me please.”

He, like some of the characters in Sweeney Todd, clearly slept rough. But his story was reality not fiction while in truth he shared a commonality as a consequence of indifference, class and inequality.

Another rested his back against a Queen Street shop wall, perhaps to take timeout from begging. And my partner said to me (or to herself): “I must always remember to bring along some cash.”

We headed for the Civic Car-park, where at the Town Hall entrance, there exposed to wind and rain, another man lay wrapped up in a blanket and prepared snuggle down to sleep off the cold.

We got in our car, exited the car-park, accelerated up Greys Avenue, turned left into Pitt Street, and worked our way passed a young man who lay amid the traffic flowing passed the corner of Karangahape Road.

Help was at hand, a group of people had placed him in the recovery position, held his hand and awaited an ambulance’s arrival.

Then, Kingsland-bound, we drove passed where Dick Smith’s used to be, and noticed a slight teenager dressed in the lightest of summertime cloth preparing to earn herself a living for the night, and I thought of how on one-late-Friday-night, at the age of thirteen years four months, Aaron Williams and I shared a half dozen bottles of beer beneath the Southmall railway bridge in Manurewa and waited for the last train to pass.

I thought then of how we didn’t realise we had our lifetimes ahead of us. And it took some four days before I could write this review. Bravo New Zealand Opera, and thank you all especially Stephen Sondheim for Sweeney Todd – for while he became the protagonist for a terrible horror (yes his actions were chosen by the monster of whom he had become) Sweeney was merely a mask to disguise what a society and culture had created.

What: New Zealand Opera.

Performance: Sweeney Todd – the demon barber of Fleet Street.

Auckland dates: September 17, 18, 21, Friday 23, and Saturday 24.

Wellington dates: September 30, October 1, 2, 4, and 5.

Christchurch: October 12, 13, 14, 15 (two performances). To discover more and purchase tickets, see: NZOpera.com.

Amelia Berry and James Benjamin Rodgers in Sweeney Todd, NZ Opera, Civic Theatre, Auckland, New Zealand, Thursday, September 15, 2016. Photo: David Rowland / One-Image.comAmelia Berry and James Benjamin Rodgers in Sweeney Todd, NZ Opera, Civic Theatre, Auckland, New Zealand, Thursday, September 15, 2016. Photo: David Rowland / One-Image.com

Philippines president’s ‘hit man’ allegations spur renewed calls for killings probe

]]>

Report by David Robie. This article was first published on Café Pacific

Time magazine and Singapore Sunday Times reports on Philippines ‘killing fields’. Image: David Robie

By DAVID ROBIE

MOUNTING calls for the Philippines president to be investigated over the allegations of human rights violations deepened over the weekend with revelations by a confessed hit man that at least 1000 extrajudicial killings had been ordered when the president was mayor of the southern city of Davao. 

Fresh reports featuring the allegations were included in a cover story in the latest Time magazine, the Singapore Sunday Times and a new inquiry by the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism into the so-called “Davao Death Squad”.

It is only 80 days since President Rodrigo Duterte was sworn into office, and the PCIJ reports that he now “commands an armed contingent that is a hundred times bigger than it was in Davao, and his ‘enemy’ a thousand times more numerous”.

More than 3000 people have reportedly been killed so far in the so-called Project Tokhang – or “Double barrel” –  war on drugs. The president has also called for a six-month extension on his policy, claiming that the drugs business is largely “operated by people in government”.

Time magazine branded its report the “killing season” in the Philippines with a subheading of “Inside President Rodrigo Duterte’s war on drugs”.

The Sunday Times correspondent in Manila, Raul Dancel, reported on some of the victims of the Davao killings, including a 62-year-old mother who lost four of her sons to the assassins.

‘Forged in blood’
The report was headlined “A peace that was forged in blood”.

Self-confessed hit man Edgar Matobato, now 57, told a Philippines Senate inquiry last week that he and other members of the so-called Davao Death Squad had killed some 1000 people in Davao City on the island of Mindanao on the orders of Duterte between 1998 and 2013.

Duterte was mayor of Davao for two decades and now his daughter Sara is the mayor there.

The PCIJ reported in its inquiry that Duterte’s deputies have denied Matobato’s allegations, with Justice Secretary Vitaliano Aguirre II branding these claims as “old lies”. However, the president himself has not responded so far although he has made no secret in the past about his links with the death squads while denying direct responsibility.

The president’s chief legal counsel, Salvador Panelo, reportedly said he saw no reason for the President to respond to a “perjured witness”, adding that the Senate session was “not a hearing on extrajudicial killing, it was a case of extrajudicial lying”.

He said: “No amount of black propaganda, no amount of sinister ploy or plan will stop the President from his relentless campaign against the drug menace and terrorism.”

In one television programme during the presidential election campaign, he declared: “I am the death squad? True. That’s true.” But he later shrugged this off as merely “teasing”.

Davao killings
As PCIJ says, “there is no denying that Duterte’s reign in Davao City had been marked by numerous extrajudicial killings, with Davao media attributing at least 150 deaths there from 1995 to 2001 alone to the DDS [Davao Death Squad] and then Mayor Duterte’s war against drugs”.

According to PCIJ’s research via police and judicial records, the president’s “expanded war” has resulted in a death toll that is “10 times higher within a much shorter period; an average of 38 persons killed a day, or over 3200 in the last 80 days”.

The presidential “hit man” allegations in the Philippines national press. Photo: David Robie
 Matobato’s testimony before the Senate inquiry named Senator Leila de Lima as being on the target list while she had been chair of the Philippines’ Commission on Human Rights. (De Lima herself is also at the centre of allegations in a separate Congress inquiry opening this week).

Matobato said he and others in the death squad had been waiting to ambush De Lima in 2009 but she had not ventured into the undisclosed hilly area to inspect a suspected mass grave site where they planned to open fire.

The former hit man alleged before the Senate inquiry that he and others in the liquidation squad took orders from Duterte and killed about 1000 suspected criminals and opponents of the mayor and the Duterte.

Matobato admitted that he had personally carried out at least 50 of the abductions and killings, including an attack on a suspected kidnapper who was hogtied and fed alive to a crocodile.

“Our job was to kill criminals like drug pushers, rapists, snatchers. That’s what we did. We killed people almost every day,” Matobato said.

Journalist assassinated
In one of the most serious claims, the former hit man also alleged that Duterte had had Davao broadcast journalist Jun Pala, a vocal critic of the president when he was Davao mayor, killed.

Responding to the testimony, one of the most influential national dailies, Philippine Daily Inquirer, declared in an editorial that the serious allegations ought to be thoroughly investigated but with “caution and scepticism”.

Until then, noted the newspaper, the president enjoyed the presumption of innocence, “as he must”.

“But herein lies the eternal paradox of our times: the demand for fairness and due process is quickly made when it applies to the powers that be; there is no question, of course, that they deserve it,” said the editorial.

“Those killed so far in the war on drugs – the padyak drivers, the petty pushers in fraying flip-flops, the denizens of dark alleys yelling surrender – did not have the luxury of being afforded the same.

“And here Philippine society is today, in an ever-deepening rabbit hole of national cognitive dissonance.”

The PCIJ has revealed that Duterte has not signed, and the Office of the President has not released, any executive order to define his role and accountability for the war on drugs

A police Project Double Barrel “kill list” in the small Bicol
town of Vizons. Such a quiet town apparently has no statistics.
Photo: David Robie

‘I will protect you’
But the President has publicly declared to policemen that they are acting under his presidential protection: “I will protect you. I will not allow one policeman or one military to go to jail.”

According to the PCIJ, as at September 18 the latest national Philippine police report cited:

  • Killed in police operations – 1140
  • Killings by unidentified gunmen “under investigation” – 1391
  • Drug pusher suspects arrested – 17,428
  • “Surrendered” – 714,803 (661,737 alleged drug users and 53,066 alleged drug pushers)
  • Houses “visited” – 1,041,429
The PCIJ said: “Whichever is the correct PNP count, these numbers best the casualty tally during the 14 years of martial law under the late strongman Ferdinand Marcos; from 1972 to January 1981, Amnesty International had recorded a total of 3240 persons killed, 34,000 tortured, and 70,000 imprisoned in the Philippines.”

Human Rights Watch and other groups have called for a full United Nations inquiry into the Philippines extrajudicial killings following the detailed testimony from former hit man Matobato.

But calls within the Philippines for impeachment by the powerful Liberal Party were dealt a blow when Vice-President Leni Robredo (who belongs to the party) declared that she hoped no impeachment process would take place, adding it was destined to fail through lack of numbers in Congress.

Despite political differences, she said, it was the duty of every citizen to support the elected President.

]]>

Tony Alexander’s Weekly Economic Overview 9 September 2016

]]>

Economic Analysis by Tony Alexander. [caption id="attachment_11232" align="alignleft" width="150"]BNZ Chief Economist, Tony Alexander. BNZ Chief Economist, Tony Alexander.[/caption] This week we note that adopting a pessimistic attitude following the GFC has left many people far worse off than if they had simply admitted the uncertainty and tossed a coin to decide what to do. The NZD has risen close to US 75 cents as more people acknowledge the good state of the NZ economy which we expect official data to confirm for the June quarter next week. Download document pdf 350kb Keep Calm and Carry On I wonder how many people are still sitting out there, holding off from buying a house, hiring staff, or undertaking capital expenditure because they expect the economy to fall into a hole in the ground because of * the collapse in the dairy payout, * the US Presidential election campaign, * Brexit * high house prices in Auckland * money printing in many countries * terrorism * peak oil * unrest in the Middle East, and so on. As humans we are hard wired to pay more attention to things which may turn out bad than things which may turn out good. The media know that and feed us stories which attract our attention and get coverage for the advertisers who pay them. Capitalism hand in hand with generally left-wing reporters exploiting human weakness. As K says in the first Men in Black movie “There’s always an Arquillian battle cruiser, or a Corillian death ray, or an intergalactic plague that is about to wipe out all life on this miserable planet…” There is always something sitting out there which can cause significant economic disruption so you are always presented with an excuse for sitting on your hands and doing nothing. Plenty of people have done that since the global financial crisis and while that was the logical thing to do in 2008 and for much of 2009, ignorance of the fundamentals driving our economy and housing market in particular has seen many people choose to sit out a period of good growth and capital appreciation. If you have avoided buying shares then you have missed a 120% rise in the NZX50 over the past five years. If you have despaired of New Zealand’s prospects and switched your assets into foreign currencies from late-2009 then you’ll have lost about 14% on a trade weighted index basis. If you have held off buying a house waiting for one of those silly forecasts of 40% price falls to come true then you are massively out of money and perhaps out in the wops when you finally make your purchase. Were these gains and the good performance of the NZ economy predictable? No. None of us predicted the extent of money printing. None of us predicted how low interest rates would go and that they would still be falling now. Hardly anyone picked this strength in the NZ dollar. I’ll claim not picking a house price collapse and advising people to buy rather than sit on their hands in the housing market since mid-2009. But I can make no claim to remotely coming close to predicting the extent to which prices have risen. The point is this. Predictability of many things had collapsed post-GFC. But that is no reason for blindly assuming the worst, growing potatoes and building a bunker. When you don’t know what is going to happen its a 50:50 call as to whether good stuff or bad stuff will come along. So why assume only the bad? Because, as noted, we are hard-wired to do exactly that. Plus, because we feel losses three to four times more intensively than gains psychologically-speaking, we give strong preference to lose avoidance rather than making gains. Consider people running to catch a bus. Are they running so they can be on the bus? Usually not. They are running to avoid the situation of just missing the bus and feeling stupid because of the loss they have suffered. If you have no idea when a bus on a regular schedule arrives at all, there is no reason for any particular speed of walking. So as you listen to the news people telling us about the woe surrounding us and how we should feel bad about it whilst anticipating even more woe down the track remember this. Buying into dystopic scenarios guarantees failure. Having at least some hope that the worst will not happen gives you a chance to thrive. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. “After all, tomorrow is another day.” Housing This week Quotable Value NZ released data showing that the average Auckland sales price has averaged just above $1 million for the past three months. Someone wondered if the $1 million average would become a psychological barrier. What a silly comment. There is no single house which you could say is the representative commodity in the Auckland housing market and which is repriced daily or more frequently as happens with say gold, oil, or the NZ dollar. A psychological barrier or resistance point in technical analysis terms is only relevant when talking about a single completely homogeneous product which is traded by a very large number of people and that is not the case in the housing market. There will not be a single auction where the bidders hold back because the price has got to $990,000 and they don’t think a rise above $1 million can be justified. Houses are already trading above that level and have been doing so for many years in the cases of high specification properties. The average price measure is an artificial construction, it is not the market price for a uniform product like gold. So you can kick any thought of the one million dollar mark representing a barrier to the current market’s movements firmly into touch – along with yet again the same analysis-poor comments from those who have been predicting falling prices and smugly warning buyers they have been paying too much for years now. Just in case you have forgotten what we have been writing here for the past eight years, here are the fundamentals for the Auckland housing market. DEMAND EXCEEDS SUPPLY AT CURRENT PRICES. Too simple. More comprehensively… -Population growth is strong. -Interest rates are low and falling. -A large cohort of people are approaching retirement and seeking assets to help fund the retirement which officials for three decades have been brainwashing them into believing will be miserably wretched affairs of shredded blankets and collapsing health unless they save and build a large investment portfolio. -There is an existing shortage which keeps growing. -Supply is being constrained by literally dozens of factors. A few include shortages of builders, electricians, plasterers, surveyors, inspectors, plumbers, concrete slabs, sections, infrastructure and so on. -Finance to allow developments is being reined in by banks having to meet tougher lending standards post-GFC. -Building standards and therefore costs keep rising. The natural pressure is for prices to keep rising. Given that the Reserve Bank continues to express concern about banks being exposed to a shock which might cause prices to fall (insert the foot and mouth scenario here because nothing else bar Mt Rangitoto going up or China invading is going to do it), there will be more lending restrictions introduced. They can next year quickly raise the 40% investor deposit requirement to 50%, then 75% if deemed necessary. But at some stage, again probably early next year, they will introduce a strong regime of controlling credit supply by restricting how much banks can lend to multiples of household incomes. 3.5 times as in Ireland, or 4.5 times as in the UK, or something probably higher to start with. Remember, this environment of influencing bank lending risk by controlling how much they can lend (credit supply) is a reversal of the approach from the mid-1980s of controlling such risk by influencing credit demand by changing borrowers’ interest rates. And also remember this. The Reserve Bank has no goal regarding housing affordability, homelessness, or buying by the young. They don’t even in fact explicitly aim to rein in the pace of price rises. Their aim is simply to make sure that if prices fall sharply for whatever reason the banking system will remain fully functioning. The way things are going, in 2018 we will probably reach a point where there are so many credit supply controls in place bank mortgage portfolios will be exceedingly robust. But supply constraints will not have changed and demand will simply have been delayed and not killed forever in most instances by the RB’s actions. Therefore prices will continue to rise and the Reserve Bank will be quite happy. Note however our view that a plateauing seems likely before mid-2018 on the basis of a lot of price fatigue, higher supply levels, lower net immigration, and the RB measures. But sustained falls? Again, that would take foot and mouth. NZ Dollar US economic data following the interest rate rise last December have continued to be less strong than expected and yet again market expectations for the timing of another rate rise have been pushed out. This time the culprits have been weak numbers on employment growth and the services sector. A rise this year is fairly unlikely and this pattern of disappointment in growth has already been seen elsewhere following rate rises post-GFC. Locations include New Zealand, Australia, Sweden and the ECB where rate rises on the basis of good growth have been more than completely reversed in every case. We noted late last year that the risk is following the US rate rise expectations eventually turn to expecting that increase to be unwound. We are not there yet and the Federal Reserve will be extremely reluctant to do that. With rate rise expectations pulling back again the USD has weakened and the NZD now trades near US 74.5 cents from 72.6 cents last week on its way to the 75 cents we have postulated. Once we get there look for forecasts of 80 cents being regained on top of the growing talk about the NZD exceeding parity against the Aussie dollar. Why so much confidence in a rising NZD? It not only goes hand in hand with a strongly performing economy growing at above a 3% pace, but because dairy prices continue to surprise on the upside. The latest Global Dairy Trade auction produced another 7.8% rise in average prices which now sit 30% above their lows of mid-July and down 57% from the April 2013 peak. Prices have been boosted by supply falling in NZ and elsewhere and we suspect a bit of a scramble from buyers because this turnaround in prices has been far greater than anyone was expecting. It pays to remember that no-one has displayed an ability to accurately forecast dairy prices a season ahead so it would be unwise to blindly extrapolate the recent price gains into further gains this year. We will simply have to take price movements as they come and hope the trend away from so many cows polluting our water continues. If I Were A Borrower What Would I Do? Nothing new.

The Weekly Overview is written by Tony Alexander, Chief Economist at the Bank of New Zealand. The views expressed are my own and do not purport to represent the views of the BNZ. To receive the Weekly Overview each Thursday night please sign up at www.tonyalexander.co.nz To change your address or unsubscribe please click the link at the bottom of your email. Tony.alexander@bnz.co.nz
]]>

Across the Ditch: NZ Dollar Climbs More + Icy Blast Hits NZ + McCahon Record Sale for NZ

Across the Ditch: Australian radio FiveAA.com.au’s Peter Godfrey and EveningReport.nz’s Selwyn Manning deliver their weekly bulltin Across the Ditch. This week they discuss how the Kiwi dollar continues to climb against all its major trading partners + A southerly icy blast has hit most of New Zealand bringing snow flurries over much of the South Island and also the North Island’s Central Plateau region, closing roads and uprooting trees. Also, a Colin McCahon painting sold this week for a record price in New Zealand. First up: Weather comparison Headlines roundup ITEM ONE: Kiwi Dollar Continues Its Climb NZ Dollar continues to climb against major trading partners, including against the soaring Aussie dollar. If South Australians are planning a skiing holiday this month in Queenstown, the snow will be good but the Kiwi dollar will not give you much of a cash injection. ITEM TWO: Freezing Winter Blast Hits All NZ Islands The last big icy breath of winter is sweeping over both main islands bringing snow to most of the South Island and down to 500 meters above sea level in the North Island. The wind-chill factor is causing concerns for farmers as the polar blast threatens livestock including thousands of new-born lambs. And this coming season’s horticulture and viticulture sectors could be hit if this weather system is backed by blistering frosts. ITEM THREE: Colin McCahon Painting Sells For Record $1,350,000.00 A painting by Kiwi artist, the late Colin McCahon, sold Wednesday night for $1,350,000. That’s a record for the most expensive painting ever sold at auction in New Zealand. The painting is known as The Canoe Tainui and was being auctioned on behalf of the estate of Tim and Sherrah Francis. The late Tim Francis, who was a former NZ permanent representative to the United Nations and ambassador to the USA. According to the NZ Herald, Tim Francis once wrote about the moment he first spotted the painting: “It was stunning, lyrical, subtle, glowing … You know, up to that point, I had been – apprehensive I think is the word – about Pakeha taking Maori objects, symbols, even history, and making it into something of their own. But this was not like that. The words, the names, were handled reverently. The whole feel of the painting was one of honouring Maori, acclaiming Maori culture … here is a profoundly expressive celebration of Maori identity, Maori nationality.” See also: NZHerald.co.nz. By the way, the painting was bought in 1969 for $550.00. Across the Ditch broadcasts live each week on FiveAA.com.au and webcasts on EveningReport.nz, LiveNews.co.nz and ForeignAffairs.co.nz.]]>

Across the Ditch: New Zealand Crime Rates Worsen + AllBlacks Wallabies Rivalry Turns Septic

Across the Ditch: Australian radio FiveAA.com.au’s Peter Godfrey and EveningReport.nz’s Selwyn Manning deliver their weekly bulletin Across the Ditch. This week, New Zealand’s crime statistics are out and show a marked deterioration, increases in burglaries and robberies. Also, the Trans-Tasman rivalry between the All Blacks and the Wallabies has turned septic. First up: Weather comparison and the Headlines Roundup. ITEM ONE: New Zealand Crime Rate Worsens: After a winter of record homelessness and hiking house prices, New Zealand’s burglary rate has also increased. Across the nation, Statistics New Zealand reported yesterday burglaries increased by 11.9% in the twelve months to July. And the negative trend has been deteriorating for some time. The latest statistics show burglaries up 29% over a two year period with robberies are up 44% and assaults have increased by 10%. The New Zealand Police Association puts this down to fewer police officers. Its president, Greg O’Connor, said yesterday “While many offence types can fluctuate, burglary figures tend to be a very good litmus test of how much criminal activity is taking place in the community.” He added: “What is clear is that the public are now becoming concerned that the crime situation is deteriorating, an inevitability after many years of under-investment. “We are now seeing political parties, including the government, accepting there is a need to increase police numbers. But it cannot wait for an election – this government must find the money now to increase police numbers across the board so that community concerns about crime can be addressed.” Labour leader Andrew Little said: ““John Key has broken his own 2008 election promise to have one police officer for every 500 people. There is now one police officer to every 526 people. “Police are desperately under-resourced and have been told there will be no staffing increases until 2020. “It’s unsurprising the regions are experiencing massive crime hikes with Rotorua burglaries up 66%, and up 100% in the Hutt Valley.” The National-led Government’s Minister of Police Judith ‘Crusher’ Collins said the Government would have more police recruits soon so that the Police could attend all burglary complaints. ITEM TWO – All Blacks Wallabies Rivalry Turns Septic: The All Blacks and Wallabies Trans-Tasman rivalry has become rather septic since last Saturday’s Bledisloe Cup test in Wellington. The All Blacks beat the Wallabies 29-9, following a first test win of 42-9. During the second test in Wellington, the Wallabies played a hard up-front and physical game, receiving a number of controversial penalties and a yellow card. It led to accusations that the referee was biased in favour of the All Blacks. There was also an alleged eye gauging by an All Black player on a Wallaby. At one point, a Wallaby pulled the boot off an All Black and through it off the field. The tension spilled over into the aftergame period with the Wallaby coach accusing the All Black couch of having met with the referee before the game and without his Wallaby counterpart present. The allegation was denied. Former Wallaby great Peter FitzSimons said on Radio New Zealand this week, that the allegations of referee bias were ridiculous and the debate should be focused on improving basic skills that in his day were drummed into players at club level. It seems fortunate that the third test between Australia and New Zealand is scheduled to be played in over a month’s time. Across the Ditch broadcasts live each week on FiveAA.com.au and webcasts on EveningReport.nz, LiveNews.co.nz, and ForeignAffairs.co.nz.]]>