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April 10, 2025
Essay by Keith Rankin. ‘Rational Expectations’ is a problematic theory in economics. Here I want to focus more away from economics; and more on the meanings of ‘rationality’ in decision-making, than on the problematic ambiguity of the word ‘expect’ (and its derivatives such as ‘expectations’). ‘Expectation’ here means what we believe ‘will’ happen, not ‘should’ ... <a title="Keith Rankin Essay – Rational Expectations, Intelligence, and War" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/04/10/keith-rankin-essay-rational-expectations-intelligence-and-war/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Essay – Rational Expectations, Intelligence, and War">Read more</a>
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March 12, 2025
Opinion Analysis by Keith Rankin. This story, Germany to ease government debt limits in major step aimed at boosting economy, defense spending,AP, 6 March 2015, reflects my comments in Germany’s Election 2025. (And note Reforming the debt brake: Now or never! Landesbank Baden-Württemberg, 28 Feb 2025. And Germany’s election victor must ditch its debt rules—immediately, ... <a title="Opinion Analysis by Keith Rankin – Dodgy Democracy, the Fiscal Double Standard, and the application of the Domino Theory to Ukraine" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/03/12/opinion-analysis-by-keith-rankin-dodgy-democracy-the-fiscal-double-standard-and-the-application-of-the-domino-theory-to-ukraine/" aria-label="Read more about Opinion Analysis by Keith Rankin – Dodgy Democracy, the Fiscal Double Standard, and the application of the Domino Theory to Ukraine">Read more</a>
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March 6, 2025
Opinion/Analysis by Keith Rankin. Germany’s important election last week struggled to make the news cycle, even on Germany’s own Deutsche Welle(DW), Germany’s equivalent of Britain’s BBC. Especially (but not only) in the international media, most of the focus was on a single party (AFD, Alliance for Germany) that was never going to have the most ... <a title="OPINION: Keith Rankin – Germany’s Election 2025: Far Establishment-Right versus Far Non-Establishment-Right?" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/03/06/opinion-keith-rankin-germanys-election-2025-far-establishment-right-versus-far-non-establishment-right/" aria-label="Read more about OPINION: Keith Rankin – Germany’s Election 2025: Far Establishment-Right versus Far Non-Establishment-Right?">Read more</a>
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February 27, 2025
Analysis by Keith Rankin. The above chart traces the vote-share of Germany’s establishment political parties: the right-wing CDU/CSU and the now-centre-right SPD (essentially the Christian Democrats, just like National in New Zealand) and the Social Democrats (just like Labour). And it compares Germany with England to show a similar process there. An increasingly stale political centre ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Germany’s stale (and still pale) political mainstream" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/02/27/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-germanys-stale-and-still-pale-political-mainstream/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Germany’s stale (and still pale) political mainstream">Read more</a>
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November 11, 2024
Dr Paul G. Buchanan and Selwyn Manning deep-dive into the United States November 5, 2024 Elections and consider the 'what, where, how and why' questions as they detail the rise and fall and rise of Donald John Trump and Trumpism.
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November 9, 2024
LIVE PODCAST: A View from Afar A Deep-Dive with Dr Paul G. Buchanan and Selwyn Manning. The LIVE Recording of this podcast will begin today, Monday at 12:45pm November 11, 2024 (NZST) which is Sunday evening, 7:45pm (USEST). Image courtesy of Nick Minto, Copyright 2024 Nick Minto; photographed November 6, 2024, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA. In ... <a title="A View from Afar – US SPECIAL EPISODE: The Rise & Fall & Rise of Trumpism" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/11/09/scheduled-live-podcast-us-special-episode-the-rise-fall-rise-of-trumpism/" aria-label="Read more about A View from Afar – US SPECIAL EPISODE: The Rise & Fall & Rise of Trumpism">Read more</a>
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September 9, 2024
Building upon recent episodes of A View from Afar, Political Scientist Paul G Buchanan and journalist Selwyn Manning discuss The Politics of Desperation. This episode flows on from our discussions about long transitions and the moment of friction.
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August 4, 2024
Analysis by Keith Rankin. The above chart shows the votes for the principal ‘leftish’ political parties in England from 1992 to 2024. The important thing to note is that vote tallies should be rising over time in any country which has a rising population. England had had a rising population trend, yet the numbers of ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – The Political Left in England; an Analysis of Election Vote Counts" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/08/04/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-the-political-left-in-england-an-analysis-of-election-vote-counts/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – The Political Left in England; an Analysis of Election Vote Counts">Read more</a>
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July 15, 2024
The Trump Assassination Attempt, Security Failures, The Politics and What Happens Next? - Firstly, in this episode of A View from Afar, political scientist and former Pentagon analyst, Dr Paul Buchanan, provides us a preliminary assessment of the assassination attempt on former United States president Donald Trump. And then Paul and Selwyn assess what impact this crime will have on the US Presidential election campaign.
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July 13, 2024
Analysis by Keith Rankin, 12 July 2024. The recent French elections delivered an entirely predictable result; although few in the mainstream media actually predicted it. Instead, the pre-election narrative was that the dastardly ‘far right’ was heading for a win, and that a win for Rally France would presage some kind of disaster for democracy ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – France’s Two-ballot Voting System, and its New Zealand Antecedent" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2024/07/13/keith-rankin-analysis-frances-two-ballot-voting-system-and-its-new-zealand-antecedent/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – France’s Two-ballot Voting System, and its New Zealand Antecedent">Read more</a>
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June 24, 2024
Post-pandemic economics and the rise of national populism - Wherever we look today, whether it be through a political, economic, or security lens, we can see the consequences of post-pandemic economic instability. And politically, the rise of national populism is in evidence, as is an apparent anti-incumbent mood among voters.
In this podcast, Paul G Buchanan and Selwyn Manning assess the global Zeitgeist and what impact post-pandemic economics is having on geopolitics and geo-economics.
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June 10, 2024
Today, political scientist Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning examine: At a micro level, how 'Post-Colonial Blowback' has impacted on New Caledonia, Gaza, South Africa, India and even New Zealand. And at a macro level, Paul and Selwyn assess how 'Post-Colonial Blowback' is a power giving rise to the Global South and its worldwide influence in global geopolitics.
