Independent Analysis and Reportage
New Zealand is almost completely dependent on four things for its survival in the contemporary world. Imported wheat, rice, and refined fuel. And ships.
Analysis by Keith Rankin, 27 February 2026. I heard this on RNZ News 11am 12 Feb 2026: “The government’s finances are in better shape than expected due to lower [government] spending and a higher tax take. Treasury figures … show a deficit of $5.2b for the six months ended December, almost $1.6b below the half-year ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – New Zealand’s Fiscal Crisis" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2026/02/28/keith-rankin-analysis-new-zealands-fiscal-crisis/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – New Zealand’s Fiscal Crisis">Read more</a>
Analysis by Keith Rankin, 16 December 2025 RNZ news item, 12pm 9 Dec 2025: “Finance Minister Nicola Willis has challenged one of her predecessors Ruth Richardson to debate her on how to best manage the country’s finances. Our political reporter Anneke Smith has more: ‘The taxpayers union is poised to launch a pressure campaign targeting ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Fire! Fire! Today’s Vestiges of Ruthenasia and Classical Austerity" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/12/16/keith-rankin-analysis-fire-fire-todays-vestiges-of-ruthenasia-and-classical-austerity/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Fire! Fire! Today’s Vestiges of Ruthenasia and Classical Austerity">Read more</a>
Analysis by Keith Rankin. TVNZ’s special programme on Tuesday (News Special: You, Me and the Economy; 25 November 2025) included (about two-thirds of the way into the programme) among a number of helpful and unhelpful suggestions, a call for New Zealanders to get onto the compound interest bandwagon, the magic formula of getting rich in ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Compound Interest in New Zealand’s last 100 Years" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/11/28/keith-rankin-analysis-compound-interest-in-new-zealands-last-100-years/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Compound Interest in New Zealand’s last 100 Years">Read more</a>
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Labour Party Policies Last month the New Zealand Labour Party announced two policies: a second sovereign wealth fund, and a capital gains tax on non-owner-occupier real estate. For me, both are worrying, representing further steps in the financialisation of an already over-financialised economy. Then yesterday, I heard a story (Report highlights ... <a title="Keith Rankin Essay – The Mansion as a Metaphor for Neoliberal Finance Capitalism" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/11/14/keith-rankin-essay-the-mansion-as-a-metaphor-for-neoliberal-finance-capitalism/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Essay – The Mansion as a Metaphor for Neoliberal Finance Capitalism">Read more</a>
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Earlier this week, in The Truth about Prices in New Zealand, (on Evening Report, and on Scoop), I showed how the Consumers Price Index (CPI) is a lagging measure of inflation, and that the Producers Price Index (and the use of six-monthly rather than annual data) gives more timely information about turning points in ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – A Quarter-Century of New Zealand’s CPI Inflation" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/10/24/keith-rankin-analysis-a-quarter-century-of-new-zealands-cpi-inflation/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – A Quarter-Century of New Zealand’s CPI Inflation">Read more</a>
Analysis by Keith Rankin. The first chart shows annual price increases in New Zealand for businesses (PPI: Producers Price Index) and consumers (CPI: Consumers Price Index), since 1999. We note that the latest CPI datapoint is for the third quarter of 2025, meaning that it’s centred on mid-August. The most recent PPI data is for the second ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – The Truth about Prices in New Zealand" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/10/21/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-the-truth-about-prices-in-new-zealand/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – The Truth about Prices in New Zealand">Read more</a>
Analysis by Keith Rankin. New Zealand’s monetary policy decision today was presented as a “line call” (RNZ news) between a cut of 0.25 or 0.50 percentage points. In that context, the correct decision was made; 0.50%. In the context of the understood policy narrative, it was a binary choice. In the mainstream expert and pundit ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Official Cash Rate: The Correct Decision. But?" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/10/08/keith-rankin-analysis-official-cash-rate-the-correct-decision-but/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Official Cash Rate: The Correct Decision. But?">Read more</a>
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Last week I looked at how, for modern day purposes, monetary policy started around 1750. It began with the departure from the presumption that money is wealth to the idea that money is a veil and that therefore wealth is something else. That was, in a sense, the beginning of political ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – A Brief History of Monetary Policy (Part Two), including Modern Monetary Theory" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/10/03/keith-rankin-analysis-a-brief-history-of-monetary-policy-part-two-including-modern-monetary-theory/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – A Brief History of Monetary Policy (Part Two), including Modern Monetary Theory">Read more</a>
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Back in the day, Economics 101 students learned that trying to recover from a depressed economy using monetary policy alone was like ‘pushing on a string’. Easy monetary policy is supposed to work by getting people – households, businesses, and governments – to incur more debt; in a phrase, to borrow ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Pushing a String: Ineffective Monetary Policy" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/09/24/keith-rankin-analysis-pushing-a-string-ineffective-monetary-policy/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Pushing a String: Ineffective Monetary Policy">Read more</a>
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Yesterday the provisional Quarterly Economic Growth data was released. It showed that, seasonally adjusted, remunerated output (ie GDP, gross domestic product) fell 0.9% in April-to-June compared to January-to-March. While the resulting media hoo-ha overstated the significance of this result, there was still very little coverage of the underlying problem; New Zealand ... <a title="Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Structural Recession" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/09/21/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-structural-recession/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – Structural Recession">Read more</a>
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Public policy in New Zealand is paralysed by an unwavering mis-framing of the current economic stagnation. A key part of the problem is the popular attachment to the phrase ‘cost of living crisis’ as a catch-all for contemporary economic malaise. The first task towards clear thinking is to disentangle ‘cost of ... <a title="Keith Rankin Analysis – Intellectual Paralysis: Cost of Living, Inflation, and Interest Costs" class="read-more" href="https://eveningreport.nz/2025/08/31/keith-rankin-analysis-intellectual-paralysis-cost-of-living-inflation-and-interest-costs/" aria-label="Read more about Keith Rankin Analysis – Intellectual Paralysis: Cost of Living, Inflation, and Interest Costs">Read more</a>