This chart essentially shows the stresses that New Zealand’s public health system can expect to face. I have analysed the death data by age, covering all deaths from July 1998 to June 2024. For those years (using June years) I have looked at every age of death from 16 to 99 and every birth year from 1900 to 2022, and counted deaths by birth-year.

For death-age 95, the most frequent birth year was 1928. As we would expect, most deaths at these high ages occurred in 2022 or 2023, thanks to Covid19. Thus, birth years in the 1920s feature in the chart.

Birth years in the early 1930s don’t feature so much because of the low birth numbers in those years. With fewer people born in say 1933, then 1933 will not often feature as the most frequent birth year for any given age.

Birth years around 1950 do not feature. This is both because the classic baby boomer generation is a healthy generation, and also because there were not as many births in the decade after World War Two as there were in the following two decades. So, while classic baby boomers will place an increasing burden on the public health system, the biggest burdens will come from those born between 1955 and 1975. (Also, classic baby boomers have high levels of private health insurance; this will be less affordable for subsequent generations as they age.)

Birth years from 1955 to 1964 feature most strongly, mainly because births in New Zealand peaked in those years. This birth cohort will place massive pressure on New Zealand’s public health system. People dying since 1998 between age 37 and age 67 are most likely to have been born in the years either side of 1960.

The cohort born 1966 to 1974 will also place huge pressures on Te Whatu Ora (Health New Zealand), in part because there are likely to be very many new Aotearoans in this birth cohort. By and large, immigrants are healthier than the New Zealand born population, because their health is considered before New Zealand residency can be granted.

The late 1970s represents a ‘baby-bust’ generation, like the early 1930s. Hence these ‘Gen-Y’ people don’t feature in this chart. The frequencies for the late 1980s’ and early 1990s’ birth years reflect the ‘baby blip’ which began in 1987. Also, these birth years relate to death of young people, which, being less frequent, can also be a bit more random.

People born in 1939 turn 85 this year. From 1938, birth numbers generally increased each year until the early 1960s. The impact of an aging population on New Zealand’s public healthcare system is certainly beginning. This impact will escalate each year for at least the next 25 years. People born in 1961 will turn 85 in 2046.

By contrast, we have been lulled into complacency because the unusually small early-1930s’ birth cohort placed a substantially below-average pressure on public healthcare.

We note that death numbers are a proxy for the demand for high-intensity healthcare. People born after 1955 are already making considerable demands on Aotearoa New Zealand’s health care.

*******

Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.

France has declared a state of emergency on the Pacific territory of New Caledonia — New Zealand’s closest neighbour — after four people, including a police officer, have been killed in pro-independence riots over voting changes that further marginalise indigenous Kanaks, news agencies report.

The move came as the French government confirmed an additional 500 members of the French national police and gendarmerie were being sent to the territory to reinforce the 1800 already there and to try and quell the violence.

The state of emergency will last 12 days and give authorities additional powers to ban gatherings and forbid people from moving around the French-ruled territory.

The last time France imposed such measures on one of its overseas territories was in 1985 —  also in New Caledonia in the middle of a similar upheaval known as “Les événements“, the Interior Ministry said.

Rioters torched vehicles and businesses and looted stores and this video below (in French) from the local Caledonia TV shows the destruction in the wake of the protests.

Deaths amid the third day of rioting.               Video: Caledonia TV

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Charles Wea, a spokesperson for international relations in the New Caledonian territorial President’s office, confirmed the deaths to RNZ Pacific.

The circumstances are unclear in the French territory’s third day of violence.

France’s Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said hundreds of people had been injured in rioting, Reuters reported.

French High Commissioner Louis Le Franc said: “I sense dark hours have arrived in New Caledonia.”

“So what we must remember from what I am going to tell you is a call for calm — stop, stop.

“Stop what has been started.”

Security forces bolstered
This follows France sending in more than 600 reinforcements to back up local police.

More than 130 people have been arrested and fears are turning to how these people will be detained, with the prison population already at capacity.

Local journalist Coralie Cochin told RNZ another curfew had been announced for this evening starting at 6pm local time.

A New Zealander holidaying in New Caledonia earlier told RNZ residents in the territory believed the situation could get worse.

Mike Lightfoot and his family are stuck in New Caledonia until at least Friday after the government imposed curfews and a drinking ban to try to quell protests.

The violence was provoked by a proposal by France which would allow French residents who have lived in New Caledonia for 10 years, to vote in provincial elections — a move local pro-independence leaders fear will dilute the vote of the indigenous Kanak population.

Lightfoot said the situation seemed peaceful as his family returned from a beach north of Nouméa, but the number of protests escalated as they entered the capital.

‘Frightening — gunshots, explosions’
Intersections were blocked and some were on fire. There were riot police throughout the city.

He and his wife had to leave the hotel at night to find a doctor after she developed a chest infection.

“It was a frightening experience. We could hear gunshots. We heard explosions.”

They had to drive through a roundabout on fire, blocked by 150 protesters.

Lightfoot said locals and staff in the hotel had told them they believed protests could escalate with the presence of more riot police and latest moves from France.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

The above chart looks rather noisy, and so it should. Life and death are messy, and subject to random variations. But this chart, for females, and those that follow, are important charts. It’s worth looking through the ‘random noise’. These charts suggest that the cliché ‘we are all living longer’ is incorrect. Also, this representation of New Zealand’s mortality data highlights the experience of younger people, something hidden by most death and life expectancy data.

First, some technical information. Triennial death increases are three-yearly percentage increases in the actual number of deaths; in this case, the numbers of deaths for an age-cohort (aka. for a generation). These are 11-year age-cohorts; eg the 1970s’ age cohort here is made up of people born from 1969 to 1979. Hence it is listed as 1974±5 (where ± means ‘plus or minus’).

Consider the plot for people in the 1974±5 cohort who died aged 21. The number shown is 23%. Essentially, that means there were 23% more deaths of females in this 1970s’ birth cohort who died aged 21 compared to the number from that birth cohort who died aged 18. (This is equivalent to an annual increase in deaths of 7%. We note that the incidence of death among 18-21 year-olds remains very low, even if the numbers of deaths are increasing.)

The data has been ‘smoothed’ in the following way. The deaths of those aged 21 have been compared with the annual average of deaths for those people when they were aged 16 to 20. The reason for this smoothing is to remove distortion arising from random single-year impacts on comparison populations.

We note that, in the absence of immigration and emigration, each year the population of a birth cohort falls; the fall is slow when the birth cohort is young, and accelerates from middle-age. Certainly, from about age 30, the likelihood of death from natural causes increases, as the cohort population falls. Again ignoring net immigration for the time being, death increases with age should be positive (ie above zero percent); and approximately stable as the increased likelihood of death offsets the reduced cohort population size.

Adding emigration and immigration to the picture, for New Zealand at least, is likely to reduce the numbers of deaths of people aged in their early twenties (an age which typically features net emigration) and to raise the numbers of deaths of people in their thirties (an age which features net immigration).

A further point of interpretation. Where there are ‘spikes’ in the chart, it does not necessarily mean that death rates are falling in subsequent years. The spikes essentially show acceleration of death incidence. If death rates are high, then zero percent increases indicate that death rates are still high.

So, what does this first chart tell us?

First, we see that from age 30 onwards, each birth-cohort (ie each generation) has experienced about 20% more deaths every three years; this amounts to about a 6% annual increase in death numbers. The greater variability for women aged 30 to 50 most likely reflects variations in the rate of immigrant arrivals; and we should bear in mind that immigration in this age group includes large numbers of returnees, immigrants to New Zealand who were born in New Zealand.

There is no obvious sense that more-recently-born women are living longer or shorter than their elders. Though women born in the 1930s do seem to have been more likely to die age 35 to 45 than their daughters and granddaughters; probably a mix of aftereffects of childhood poverty in the Depression years, and of the high rates of smoking amongst that generation.

Second, all generation show at least one age from 20 to 25 where there were fewer deaths than three years previously. Emigration – in particular, extended ‘overseas experience’ – will have been one reason, though probably not the only reason.

Third, and perhaps most worrying, are the high increases in teenage death rates showing for people born after 1980. This will be partly due to falling death rates for people aged around ten. But is also likely to reflect the emergence of a growing underclass; child/teenage poverty in times in which underclass births have become a larger proportion of total births. While this data is for females, we’ll look at males shortly.

This second chart shows the same data as the first chart, though it’s plotted by year-of-death rather than age-at-death. This chart shows particular high-death or low-death years. 1957 and 1968 were influenza pandemic years, and it shows, especially for the 1930s-born age cohort. We can also see death peaks in 1977, 1980, 1987, 1995, 2003/04, 2011, 2017, and 2022.

We note the big fall in the late 1990s in deaths of the 1970s’ born. This will be due to particularly heavy emigration of young people in the 1990s; emigration resulting from the record-high unemployment levels in the early 1990s.

The other feature prominent in this chart is the experience of teenagers born from 1979 to 2009. These are most likely to be due to increased mental health issues faced by teenagers born from the 1980s, perhaps combined with other issues around childhood immunity to pathogens. Anecdotally, we do hear about increasing incidences of conditions such as asthma and allergies; conditions possibly due more to over-cleanliness than to exposure to pathogens.

Comparing males with females, we see that the ‘teenage issue’ is substantially more prominent with males, and more clearly extends back to older generations. In the case of teenage males, we note a greater propensity to risky behaviours, and also the greater likelihood of death by suicide. On the matter of risky behaviours, the most prominent feature of risk-taking was vehicle crashes.

(A particular note re my own memories. 1973 was the worst year ever for road deaths in New Zealand, and one group overrepresented were motorcyclists aged around 18 to 20. Look at the green 1950s’ birth cohort. While I neither died nor got injured from such a crash, that was me; born in 1953, and an active student motorcyclist. I knew a number of people who did have serious crashes. And I attended two funerals in 1973; both born in 1952, one in a mountaineering accident and one suicide.)

In the final chart, we again see no evidence that the younger generations are healthier – or more likely to be long-lived – than their parents’ generations. Further, those born in the 1990s are not showing the decline in deaths in their early 20s which characterised previous generations. Though this may be due to less emigration; ie to changes in the culture of ‘overseas experience’ with more young people taking short trips rather than an extended or indefinite period of absence from New Zealand.

The last year of data is 2022, the year of high Covid19 mortality in New Zealand. New Zealanders born in the 1970s appear to have been hard-hit by Covid19, whether by the infection itself, or as a result of other circumstances associated with the pandemic. A 40% triennial increase in deaths in 2022 cannot be explained entirely by immigration.

Finally, in terms of the charts, we see that for older people, cohort death increases have been less for males than for females. This is because there are fewer older men than older women; meaning that more ‘past deaths’ of older men means relatively fewer ‘present deaths’ of older men.

Explanatory Context

Finally, I should mention the work of prominent (and still living) twentieth-century demographer Richard Easterlin (b.1926). His central insights were that baby-bust generations have more successful life-outcomes, on average, than baby-boom generations. (This may be modified, by the conclusion that ‘trailing baby-boomers’ – eg Gen X – would do less well in life than ‘leading baby-boomers’.)

And that the advantages/disadvantages of each age-cohort would show up in death rates, and would persevere throughout their cohorts’ lives.

The recent data that I have shown here modifies the first insight. Young people born in the 1980s – a baby bust period – have higher teenage death rates than those born in the 1960s and 1970s. My modification to Easterlin’s conclusion is that increasing inequality and poverty within a nation-state will also have an adverse impact on the life outcomes of a generation; especially given that, for today’s younger generations, children are overrepresented in the poorest households.

On Easterlin’s second insight, it’s too early to tell if unusually high teenage death rates for recent birth cohorts will also translate to unusually high death rates for these generations when they reach middle-age and old-age. But it’s looking likely that triennial death toll increases for people born in New Zealand after (say) 1970 will continue higher than for people born in the 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s.

This means that I am questioning current official life-expectancy projections as too optimistic, given that they are biassed by the experiences of people born before 1970. Not only are we not all living longer, as the purveyors of retirement savings’ schemes claim, but my prediction is that true life-expectancy (an average) for people born after 1970 is actually lower than it is for people born between 1940 and 1970. Indeed, some United States data already shows this for that American country. I can see every reason to believe that New Zealand will follow this turning trend already apparent in official United States’ mortality data.

*******

Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.

The death toll from the devastating wildfire that engulfed the historic beachside town of Lāhainā on the island of Maui in Hawai’i, continues to rise, with 55 reported dead so far.

Images of Lāhainā show a town obliterated by wildfires with homes and cars in ashes.

Thousands have lost everything and have evacuated to emergency centres.

The firestorm hit Lāhainā like a blowtorch, with wildfires from vegetation fanned by sustained 100km/h winds generated from a hurricane located south of Hawai’i.

“The fire started on the top of the mountain within about a five-mile radius from us,” Leimoana Fa’alogo, a 28-year-old resident of Lāhainā who witnessed the disaster, said.

“The fire was moving down the hill superfast and I would say that within 10 minutes it reached the town and within another 10 minutes moved from one neighbourhood to the next,” Fa’alogo said.

“Because of the high winds from Hurricane Dora, the fire was moving fast and soon people were trying to evacuate.”

‘It was moving too fast’
Fa’alogo told RNZ Pacific ceaseless winds intensified the firewall, which quickly reached the town. It moved so fast, firefighters were unable to keep up.

“They were responding but because of the high winds, it was moving too fast for them,” Fa’alogo said.

“They just weren’t able to respond quickly enough and didn’t have the manpower to continue.”

Realising the fires could not be stopped, Lāhainā residents abandoned their homes and evacuated. Some residents jumped into the ocean as their escape routes became cutoff by fires.

“We were in the home with my husband and when I looked outside there was smoke everywhere,” Lāhainā resident Alejandra Bautista said.

“It was scary, we just grabbed some things and left. I’ve lost my house.”

Realising the fires could not be stopped, Lāhainā residents abandoned their homes and evacuated. Some residents jumped into the ocean as their escape routes became cutoff by fires.

“We were in the home with my husband and when I looked outside there was smoke everywhere,” Lāhainā resident Alejandra Bautista said.

‘Scary – I’ve lost my house’
“It was scary, we just grabbed some things and left. I’ve lost my house.”

Many residents left Lāhainā as the town burned around them. Social media videos by drivers showed apocalyptic scenes with houses burning on both sides of the road, as they navigated around debris on the road.

“It was just hectic, and because there were so many electrical poles that fell and roads were blocked, but everyone was in panic mode and just trying to get out,” Fa’alogo said.

“My whole neighbourhood is gone, it’s just all gone, homes damaged, bodies on the street, cars abandoned — caught on fire, people jumping into the water.

“It’s like a movie, these are things you see in a movie, that’s exactly what it looks like. Our town just looks like The Walking Dead.”

Aid package
As the town continued to burn, US President Joe Biden agreed to an aid package submitted by Hawai’i’s Governor Josh Green. No specific figure was given, but the package will cover damages of residents and businesses affected.

“What we saw is likely the largest disaster in Hawai’i state history,” Green said.

“We are going to need to house thousands of people. It’s our intent to initially seek 2000 rooms so we can get housing for people. That means reaching out to hotels and those in the community.”

Fa’alogo was among those thousands — who were staying in churches, schools and community centres across Maui.

“Right now, we have been evacuated and we are currently at the Latter Day Saints Church. We’re getting a lot of help with toiletries, clothes and a lot of food . . . were getting more food than in our own home.

“We have organisations like the Tongan ward of the LDS Church and the Relief Society, they cooked for us last night and we’re up until 2am because people were still arriving looking for shelter.”

Wildfires have razed much of Hawai‘i’s former capital Lahaina to the ground. Colonial land practices and tourism are largely to blame, experts say. pic.twitter.com/B9SmrPEwxr

— AJ+ (@ajplus) August 10, 2023

Most Maui homes safe
While Lāhainā and at least two other smaller settlements were torched by wildfires, the majority of homes on Maui were safe.

Sandy Kapukala, who lived in the town of Kihei, told RNZ Pacific the western part of the island where Lāhainā is located had been badly hit, while other areas such as the capital Kahului were unaffected.

“There’s still no power, we don’t, we haven’t heard from a lot of people. The roads are blocked, people can’t get into that part of the island but the part of the island where I am . . .  it’s a sunny beautiful day and people are on vacation, so it’s one extreme to the other.”

Fa’alogo said the main concern of the Lāhainā community was contacting family and friends separated during the disaster.

Many residents were still being evacuated from the Lāhainā area and surrounding communities where roads have been blocked, she said.

“The whole town is sad and a lot of people are trying to locate their families because they were separated.

“Currently, the side of the island where Lāhainā is located, is running out of water and food, and there’s still people who need to be evacuated to Kahului [capital of Maui].”

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

The World Health Organisation’s decision to remove covid-19 as a global health emergency is the right move, epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker says.

The organisation said the virus was now an established and ongoing health issue that no longer constituted a public health emergency of international concern.

Professor Baker said the global status change made sense at this stage, but it did not impact on whether covid-19 was still a pandemic.

Covid-19 was still New Zealand’s number one killer when it came to infectious disease and people should make sure they were vaccinated and take sensible precautions, he said.

“There might be some scaling down in the international reporting of cases, but really it doesn’t make a difference to somewhere like New Zealand.

“It makes no practical difference whatsoever to how countries manage this infection.”

1000 NZ deaths predicted this year
Professor Baker earlier said that this year covid-19 was on track to kill some 1000 people in New Zealand and hospitalise around 10,000.

The threat of long covid also loomed — with one recent study suggesting as many as one in five New Zealanders reported lingering symptoms after their first infection.

He emphasised the need for caution in easing our few remaining protections.

The latest vaccine was one of the best things people could do to guard against the disease, because it included protection against omicron — the current dominant variant circulating in the community.

“You have to always think why the World Health Organisation assigned it [a global health emergency originally] and it’s really related to these certain criteria.

“It is about how severe and how unexpected [the disease is], but it’s really about whether an international response is needed and whether there’s potential for international spread.”

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Hipkins said it was now seven days after the cyclone had passed through and the true extent of the devastation and loss was becoming clearer with every passing day.

“Lives have been turned upside down, many people have seen their homes and all their possessions completely destroyed,” he told a media briefing in Wellington late yesterday.

Countless others have been displaced, tragically so far 11 people have lost their lives, and more fatalities remain possible.”

He said 28,000 homes remained without power.

“Telecommunications have been severely disrupted, fresh water is in short supply in some areas and roads have been badly damaged, limiting access to some areas and causing significant delays in others,” he said.

He said supply chains had been disrupted and moving goods around had been “incredibly challenging”.

“Crops have been badly damaged, many completely destroyed.”

Death toll 11
Earlier yesterday, police confirmed two further deaths relating to the cyclone, bringing the total to 11.

Hipkins today paid tribute to emergency services and first responders, who had done New Zealand proud.

Watch the media briefing

Video: RNZ News

“Many have worked themselves to utter exhaustion. The stress and strain of the last week is clearly starting to show, and particularly in places where power and communications remains disrupted, we know that tensions can be high.”

He said nobody should underestimate the psychological toll this disaster was taking on some New Zealanders.

“The past week has pushed many to their limit, even more so given it comes on top of other weather events, the disruption of a global pandemic and too many other significant and disruptive challenges to mention — our resilience is being tested like never before,” Hipkins said.

“But as we’ve repeatedly seen in recent times, adversity brings out the best in Kiwis. We rally together and we support each other.

“We look out for our neighbours, we go the extra mile to protect the vulnerable, we share and we care. ”

The Australian emergency responders announced on Friday they were supporting Fire & Emergency NZ with a 27-person impact assessment team and Hipkins said 25 of them were already on the ground in the Hawke’s Bay, with two supporting the national co-ordination centre.

He said Aotearoa had also accepted an offer of support from Fiji — 10 personnel from their defence force, four fire authority crew and four national disaster management officials were preparing to leave for New Zealand in the coming days.

Crucial satellite imagery
He added that the United States and Australia — through the New Zealand Defence Force — had provided crucial satellite imagery products of the affected areas.

“And we’re in the final stages of working to accept an offer from the Australian Defence Force who will support the New Zealand Defence Force with a C-130 transport aircraft, air load teams to rig freight on the aircraft and environmental health staff to assist in analysing health risks.

“All of this will be a great help and we thank Fiji and the United States as we thank Australia.”

Hipkins said making a monetary donation was the single most helpful thing people can do in the wake of the cyclone to support those disrupted communities, because “that enables the support organisations to [require] what is needed in those communities”.

He said there was no doubt that New Zealand had a steep mountain ahead of it.

Tough calls
“Our attention over the past week has been focused on the initial emergency response, rescuing those stranded, restoring lifelines and removing hazards. In some areas that still remains very much the focus, in other areas though, recovery is starting to get underway,” Hipkins said.

“As the shape of the damage and the need becomes clearer we’ll be able to shape our response accordingly.

“We know that this will come with a big price tag and we will have to once again reprioritise and refocus our efforts and our resources. We will build back better, but we will also need to build back more resilient than before.”

He said the country had underinvested in infrastructure for far too long and that had to change.

“If we’re going to build back better and if we’re going to build back quickly, some tough calls will need to be made, and I’m absolutely committed to doing that.”

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

The number of people in Aotearoa New Zealand whose deaths have been officially linked to Cyclone Gabrielle has risen to 11, with confirmation of two further deaths today.

In a statement, police said a person who passed away in their Onekawa home on Thursday is “believed to have died in circumstances related to Cyclone Gabrielle”.

The news was soon followed by confirmation of another death in Crownthorpe, Hastings police reported last night.

Police said this person was also believed to have died in circumstances related to the storm.

Both deaths have been referred to the Coroner.

Meanwhile, Hawke’s Bay Civil Defence said the focus of its cyclone response efforts remains reaching isolated rural communities today, including Wairoa.

Hawke’s Bay Civil Defence said the focus of its cyclone response efforts remained reaching isolated rural communities today, including Wairoa.

Yesterday 12 civilian helicopter flights landed in cut-off communities with food, water, and generators, and to check on welfare.

Edaan Lennan said those efforts would continue daily, and some communities would need to be revisited and stocked up with supplies.

He said teams were also working to arrange temporary accommodation for those in evacuation centres whose homes had been destroyed.

Five arrested for looting
Police are stressing safety as their number one priority amid lootings in flood-stricken areas, and they also urged people affected by Cyclone Gabrielle to report if they are safe.

As of 2pm Saturday, there have been 5608 reports of uncontactable people registered and 1196 reports from people registering that they are safe.

With communications slowly returning to areas severely affected by the cyclone, police are asking for people who have been uncontactable to friends and family to report themselves as being safe online as soon as possible.

As of Saturday night, five people have been arrested after a spate of lootings across Hawke’s Bay.

More than 100 extra officers were brought into the Eastern District, including to areas that were cut off from Cyclone Gabrielle.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

New Zealanders should be prepared for the number of fatalities in the wake of Cyclone Gabrielle to increase, says Prime Minister Chris Hipkins.

He said at a media briefing in Gisborne that every available resource was being used to help find those who are missing and to rescue those who were known about but unable to be reached.

Over the past two days the rescue coordination centre had overseen 450 rescues and all rescue requests in the 111 system had been completed, Hipkins said.

Overnight the death toll rose to seven but there are still people for whom the police hold grave concerns.

As of 2.30pm yesterday, 3544 reports of uncontactable people had been registered with the police. A further 450 had been reported as found.

Those included multiple reports for the same people. Police were prioritising those in the more isolated areas.

“And we do need to be prepared for the likelihood that there will be more fatalities,” Hipkins said.

The situation in Gisborne
Hipkins said the damage in Gisborne was extensive and there was “absolutely no doubt” that communities impacted were under enormous pressure.

Earlier, Hipkins flew to Gisborne for his first in-person look at the scale of destruction from the cyclone.

Hipkins said it “was a pretty moving morning”.

“Flying in over Gisborne is was clear the extent of the damage even before we’d gotten off the plane.”

It was clear there were big challenges facing the community, he said.

Communication was incredibly difficult for some people and both fibre routes in and out of Gisborne had been damaged with engineers working to repair the damage as fast as they could, Hipkins said.

Getting the water supply up and running would not be an overnight fix but was a prority, he said.

Hawke’s Bay update
The government was trying to get hotspots and other temporary measures in place and 10 more Starlinks were on their way to Gisborne. Five units have been delivered to Wairoa and Hawke’s Bay, with more on the way.

Hipkins said there was a reasonably good supply of Starlinks in NZ.

“They’re not going to provide a complete answer though, but they will provide a limited amount of connectivity in those areas that are currently cut off and that will hopefully allow us to at least establish some of those basic communication channels.

“We’ve been able to reach Wairoa and Hawke’s Bay by road today and SH2 to Gisborne has also been opened on a limited basis for convoys of emergency supplies including food, water and fuel.”

Temporary supplies were on route and more would be arriving soon, he said.

“Fresh water is clearly an issue.”

There were real concerns for the Eskdale areas, Hipkins said.

Door-to-door
Teams were there going door-to-door to identify the extent of the damage and any human harm, he said. There had not been a report back from these teams yet.

People in Hawke’s Bay were advised to be prepared.

“We’re dealing with very unpredictable weather at the moment, it is certainly likely that there will be more rain, that’s what the forecasts are suggesting.”

The damage to roads in all areas was one of the most significant challenges and people in these areas were asked to minimise their own movements so supplies could get to where they were needed, Hipkins said.

“If you can stay put, stay put, make sure you’ve got everything you need to stay put if it’s safe to do that and if you need to evacuate be prepared and be ready to evacuate as well.

“That involves your grab to go bag, making sure you’ve got something warm and dry to wear and that you’ve got a plan.”

Communities were coming together and managing the situation very well, Hipkins said.

Alert others
People may need to go door-to-door to alert others if they need to evacuate, Hipkins said.

The most recent information is that approximately 102,000 customers are without power across the upper North Island.

Hipkins said the government had released $1 million as an immediate top up to the mayoral relief fund as the first step to help get immediate support to those who need it.

A further $1 million had been released to the Hawke’s Bay.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Widespread damage has hit farms across Aotearoa New Zealand’s North Island with those in parts of Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay particularly hard hit and forestry slash is once again a huge problem.

Tolaga Bay farmer Bridget Parker told how forestry slash has caused a huge amount of damage to her farm yet again as the death toll from Cyclone Gabrielle rose to six.

“It’s enormous — there is silt all over the road. It’s so thick you can’t walk through it; there are logs as far as the eye can see,” she said.

“There are so many logs all the fences are down; wherever you look it’s total carnage.”

Parker, whose farm has been destroyed by forestry slash during storms multiple times, said they can look at forecasts for rain, wind, drought and even tides but they could not predict what was going to happen when it came to the logs.

“We don’t farm logs. Their logs [the forestry companies] and their friggin’ silt needs to stay inside their friggin’ estate gates.

“It does not have the right to be spewed over the 3000ha of beautiful land that is farmed on the flats below it.”

Parker said Minister for Forestry Stuart Nash needed to visit the region within the next week to answer to farmers.

“There’s floodwaters everywhere, in our house, in our sheds. It’s far higher than last time and we are really really struggling to cope; we’re really angry.”

Hawke’s Bay area ‘smashed’
Forestry slash has also caused issues on farms in Hawke’s Bay where there was widespread flooding and slips.

Suz Bremner, who runs sheep, beef and friesian bulls along the Taihape Napier Road, said she had never seen damage like it.

“I tipped out the rain gauge this morning. It was overflowing at 170mm so we don’t know how much we’ve had.

“The power is out but from what we are hearing from people nearby is that the wider Hawke’s Bay area has just been smashed.”

Bremner said she went for a drive around her farm yesterday morning to assess the damage but roads were blocked by trees while tracks had been washed away.

“Looking at some of our neighbours who have big cliff faces on their properties the slip damage is horrendous.

“We have a road through the top end of our farm and we turned down there this morning and my husband and I could not believe our eyes. The slash that had washed down through the creeks is unreal; I’ve never seen that before.

“I think the forestry has come down and created a dam and then during the night it’s just exploded and now there’s slash everywhere,” she said.

Other farmers RNZ spoke to in Hawke’s Bay said they were hunkering down waiting for the worst of the weather to pass before getting out to assess the level of damage.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

As a huge effort ramps up in Aotearoa New Zealand to restore essential services to thousands of people in Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay, police hold “grave concerns” for some reported missing.

Five people have been confirmed killed in the devastation of Cyclone Gabrielle.

In Hawke’s Bay, a child was caught in rising water in the settlement of Eskdale, a woman died in a landslide, a body was found on the shore at Bay View, and a body believed to be caught in flood waters was found in Gisborne.

The body of a volunteer firefighter who had been missing in Muriwai, near Auckland, since Monday night was recovered yesterday.

By Wednesday, more than 1400 people had been reported as “uncontactable” using the police 105 online reporting form, mostly in Hawke’s Bay and Tairāwhiti.

While police expected a large number of the reports to be the result of communication lines being down, they confirmed they held “grave concerns” for several people missing in the Hawke’s Bay and Tairāwhiti areas.

The navy ship HMNZS Manawanui is due in Tairāwhiti this morning with water supplies, and HMNZS Te Mana will sail to Napier to supply Wairoa with water and other essentials.

The NZ Defence Force expects to move a water treatment facility to Wairoa, and a rapid relief team that reached the town on Wednesday will be handing out up to 500 food packages.

Engineers and roading crews are checking bridges and clearing roads throughout both regions.

Prime Minister Chris Hipkins is due to fly to Gisborne today in what will be his first in-person look at the scale of destruction from Cyclone Gabrielle.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

An earthquake with a magnitude of 5.4 hit Papua’s capital city Jayapura on Thursday afternoon, killing four people, injuring at least five and forcing 700 to flee, emergency officials said.

The shallow earthquake with an epicenter of 10 km deep and located at coordinates 2.60 south and 140.66 east struck at 3.28pm.

Officlals said at least five houses were damaged by the earthquake — three of them heavily and two moderately.

In addition, a cafe collapsed and fell into the sea, while the building of Jayapura’s Dok 2 Hospital, two churches, a mosque, and a hotel were also damaged.

The earthquake collapsed the top part of the Cendrawasih University postgraduate building.

The Jayapura Mall building in the city centre also suffered cracks on one side of the building, and the roof of the 4th floor collapsed.

“As an effort to handle the disaster emergency, the Jayapura City Disaster Management Agency together with the Papua Province BPBD and related agencies have set up emergency tents, provided evacuation sites, public kitchens and basic support for the evacuees,” spokesperson Abdul Muhari said.

“The urgent needs are emergency tents and generators for electricity.”

Republished with permission.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

It is unlikely that the Mayor of Auckland, Wayne Brown, took any lessons from the city’s devastating floods but the rest of us — and journalists in particular — could learn a thing or two.

Brown’s demeanour will not be improved by a petition calling for his resignation or media columnists effectively seeking the same. He will certainly not be moved by New Zealand Herald columnist Simon Wilson, now a predictable and trenchant critic of the mayor, who correctly observed in the Herald on Sunday: “In a crisis, political leaders are supposed to soak up people’s fears…to help us believe that empathy and compassion and hope will continue to bind us together.”

Wilson’s lofty words may be wasted on the mayor, but they point to another factor that binds us together in times of crisis. It is communication, and it was as wanting as civic leadership on Friday night and into the weekend.

Media coverage on Friday night was limited to local evacuation events, grabs from smartphone videos and interviews with officials that were light on detail. The on-the-scene news crews performed well in worsening conditions, particularly in West Auckland.

However, there was a dearth of official information and, crucially, no report that drew together the disparate parts to give us an over-arching picture of what was happening across the city.

I waited for someone to appear, pointing to a map of greater Auckland and saying: “These areas are experiencing heavy flooding . . . State Highway 1 is closed here, here and here as are these arterial routes here, here, and here across the city . . . cliff faces have collapsed in these suburbs . . . power is out in these suburbs . . . evacuation centres have been set up here, here, and here . . . :

That way I would have been in a better position to understand my situation compared to other Aucklanders, and to assess how my family and friends would be faring. I wanted to know how badly my city as a whole was affected.

I didn’t get it from television on Friday night nor did I see it in my newspaper on Saturday. My edition of the Weekend Herald, devoting only its picture-dominated front page and some of page 2 to the flooding, was clearly hampered by early deadlines. The Dominion Post devoted half its front page to the storm and, with a later deadline, scooped Auckland’s hometown paper by announcing Brown had declared a state of emergency.

So, too, did the Otago Daily Times on an inside page. The page 2 story in The Press confirmed the first death in the floods.

I turned to television on Saturday morning expecting special news programmes from both free-to-air networks. Zilch . . . nothing. Later in the day TV1 and Newshub did rise to the occasion with specials on the prime minister’s press conference, but it seems a small concession for such a major event.

Radio fared better but only because regular hosts such as NewstalkZB’s All Sport Breakfast host D’Arcy Waldegrave and Today FM sports journalist Nigel Yalden rejigged their Saturday morning shows to also cover the floods.

RNZ National’s Kim Hill was on familiar ground and her interview with Wayne Brown was more than a little challenging for the mayor. RNZ mounted a “Midday Report Special” with Corin Dann that also tried to break through the murk, but I was left wondering why it had not been a Morning Report Special starting at 6 am.

Over the course of the weekend the amount of information provided by news media slowly built up. Both Sundays devoted six or seven pages to the floods but it was remiss of the Herald on Sunday not to carry an editorial, as did the Sunday Star Times.

It was also good to see Newsroom and The Spinoff — digital services not usually tied to breaking news of this kind — providing coverage.

“Live” updates on websites and news apps added local detail but there was no coherence, just a string of isolated events stretching back in time.

Overall, the amount of information I received as a citizen of the City of Sails was inadequate. Why?

Herein lie the lessons.

News media under-estimated the impact of the event. Although there were fewer deaths than in the Christchurch earthquake or the Whakaari White Island eruption, the scale of damage in economic and social terms will be considerable. The natural disaster warranted news media pulling out all the stops and, as they did on those occasions, move into schedule-changing mode (and that includes newspaper press deadlines).

Lesson #1: Do not allow natural disasters to occur on the eve of a long holiday weekend.

Media were, however, hampered by a lack of coherent information from official sources and emergency services. Brown’s visceral dislike of journalists was part of the problem but that was not the root cause. That fell into two parts.

The first was institutional disconnects in an overly complex emergency response structure which is undertaken locally, coordinated regionally and supported from the national level. This complexity was highlighted after another Auckland weather event in 2018 that saw widespread power outages.

The report on the response was resurrected in front page leads in the Dominion Post and The Press yesterday. It found uncoordinated efforts that did not use the models that had been developed for such eventualities, disagreements over what information should be included in situation reports, and under-estimation of effects.

Massey University director of disaster management Professor David Johnston told Stuff he believed the report would be exactly the same if it was recommissioned now because Auckland’s emergency management system was not fit for purpose — rather it was proving to be a good example of what not to do

Lesson #2: Learn the lessons of the past.

The 2018 report did, however, give a pass mark to the communication effort and noted that those involved thought they worked well with media and in communicating with the public through social media.

Can the same be said of the current disaster response when there “wasn’t time” to inform a number of news organisations (including Stuff) about Wayne Brown’s late Friday media conference, and when Whaka Kotahi staff responsible for providing updates clocked-off at 7.30 pm on Friday?

Is it timely for Auckland Transport to still display an 11.45 am Sunday “latest update” on its website 24 hours later? Is it relevant for a list of road closures accessed at noon yesterday to have actually been compiled at 7.35 pm the previous night? Why should a decision to keep Auckland schools closed until February 7 cause confusion in the sector simply because it was “last minute”?

Lesson #3: Ensure communications staff know the definition of emergency: A serious, unexpected, and potentially dangerous situation requiring immediate action.

There certainly was confusion over the failure to transmit a flood warning to all mobile phones in the city on Friday. The system worked perfectly on Sunday when MetService issued an orange Heavy Rain Warning.

It appears that emergency personnel believed posts on Facebook on Friday afternoon and evening were an effective way of communicating directly with the public. That is alarming because social media use is so fragmented that it is dangerous to make assumptions on how many people are being reached.

A study in 2020 of United States local authority communication about the covid pandemic showed a wide range of platforms being used and the recipients were far from attentive. The author of the study, Eric Zeemering, found not only were city communications fragmented across departments, but the public audience selectively fragmented itself through individual choices to follow some city social media accounts but not others.

In fact, more people were passing information about the flood to each other via Twitter than on Facebook and young people in particular were using TikTok for that purpose. Media organisations were reusing these posts almost as much as the official information that from some quarters was in short supply.

Lesson #4: When you need to communicate with the masses, use mass communication (otherwise known as news media).

Mistakes will always be made in fast changing emergencies but, having made a mistake, it is usual to go the extra yards to make amends. It beggars belief that Whaka Kotahi staff would fail to keep their website up to date on the Auckland situation when it is quite clear they received an enormous kick up the rear end from Transport Minister Michael Wood for clocking off when the heavens opened.

Or that Auckland Transport could be far behind the eight ball after turning travel arrangements for the (cancelled) Elton John concert into a fiasco.

After spending Friday evening holed up in his high-rise office away from nuisances like reporters attempting to inform the public, Mayor Brown justified his position with a strange definition of leadership then blamed others.

Sideswipe’s Anna Samways collected a number of tweets for her Monday Herald column. Among them was this: “Just saw one of the Wayne Brown press conferences. He sounded like a man coming home 4 hours late from the pub and trying to bull**** his Mrs about where he’d been.”

Lesson #5: When you’re in a hole, stop digging.

Dr Gavin Ellis holds a PhD in political studies. He is a media consultant and researcher. A former editor-in-chief of The New Zealand Herald, he has a background in journalism and communications — covering both editorial and management roles — that spans more than half a century. Dr Ellis publishes a website called Knightly Views where this commentary was first published and it is republished by Asia Pacific Report with permission.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Auckland mayor Wayne Brown is under fire for calling New Zealand journalists “drongos”, blaming them for having to cancel a round of tennis with friends on Sunday as the city dealt with the aftermath of record rainfall and flooding that left four dead.

It comes after widespread criticism of his handling of the disaster, including being slow to declare a state of emergency on Friday night and a combative, testy media conference on Saturday.

A producer for MediaWorks news station Today FM on Saturday said Brown turned down an interview on Friday morning because he wanted to play tennis instead.

WhatsApp messages leaked to The New Zealand Herald showed rain got in the way, with Brown telling friends on Saturday morning it was “pissing down so no tennis”. Despite being freed up, the interview did not go ahead.

And on Saturday night, Brown told the WhatsApp group — known as ‘The Grumpy Old Men’ — he couldn’t play on Sunday either because “I’ve got to deal with media drongos over the flooding”.

Brown asked the Herald not to write a story about the messages, calling them a “private conversation aimed at giving a reason to miss tennis”.

“There is no need to exacerbate a situation which is not about me but about getting things right for the public and especially those in need and in danger.”

He also turned down Morning Report‘s request to appear on the show on Tuesday morning. His deputy, Desley Simpson, did call in — saying she was “happy to talk to you at any time”.

“My understanding is the mayor is on the ground, and has been over the weekend,” she said, not directly addressing criticism he wasn’t communicating effectively.

“I think as his deputy I am more than happy to do that role. I’m talking to you now, I’ll talk to you at any time. That’s my commitment to you and to Auckland.”

Asked if it was acceptable to call journalists “drongos”, Simpson again avoided the question.

“Media play an important part, in my opinion, in helping get our message out. I really appreciate talking to you this morning so that we can inform Aucklanders what they need to do to be prepared for the storm . . .

“My focus, and I think all local boards and other councillors — and the mayor — our focus is making sure that Auckland is prepared for this afternoon and this evening. It’s going to be a rough 24 hours, and I really appreciate you helping us get this message out.”

She then said she had not seen Brown’s texts, she had been busy “getting myself ready this morning with emergency services and stuff for this afternoon”.

The region north of Auckland’s Orewa is under an unprecedented “red” rain warning, while the rest of the city to the south is at orange.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Appreciated the chance to speak with @abcnews about the resilience and generosity of so many in the community supporting whanau during these distressing times. The local leadership on show has been magnificent. pic.twitter.com/PJ4hItwjxx

— Efeso Collins (@efesocollins) January 30, 2023

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

A fourth person has been found dead as a result of New Zealand’s catastrophic floods on Friday, which have now spread to other parts of the country.

Police said in a statement that Search and Rescue, who had been looking for a person swept away by floodwaters in Waikato’s Onewhero, had found a man’s body.

Formal identification is yet to take place, but police believe it is the missing man.

The body was found by a drone operator, about one km from where he went missing.

“Police have been overwhelmed by the way the community has rallied around and gone above and beyond to assist with the search,” the statement said.

“Locals have offered their time and effort, food, and support to others around them at this extremely difficult time.”

At a media conference this afternoon, Deputy Prime Minister Carmel Sepuloni said the death of four people was “horrific”.

‘Traumatic experience’
“I think it’s been a traumatic experience … That’s the most horrific part of it that we’ve lost lives.

“Clearly alongside every Aucklander and New Zealander we share in our condolences and sadness with that person’s family.”

In previous media conferences, Auckland mayor Wayne Brown and Prime Minister Chris Hipkins had also passed on their condolences to the families of those who have died.

Earlier today, police named 34-year-old Daniel Mark Miller as another victim of the floods.

Miller was found dead in a culvert on Target Road in Wairau Valley on Friday.

“Police extend their sympathies to his family and friends.”

Another person was found dead after a landslide brought down a house on Remuera’s Shore Rd.

MOTAT volunteer
RNZ understands that the man was a beloved volunteer at Museum of Transport and Technology (MOTAT), Dave Lennard.

Friends are paying tribute to him on social media.

Stuff reports that Lennard, in his 80s, was much loved at MOTAT.

“He was one of those guys who could make anything and teach himself how to use new equipment with ease,” friend Evan James told Stuff.

A fourth person was also found dead in a flooded carpark on Link Drive, Wairau Valley at 12.30am on Saturday morning.

All deaths will be referred to the coroner, police said.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Countdown to Chaos: As Aucklanders were desperately seeking safety, officials were silent https://t.co/9UJfoke7XQ

— RNZ News (@rnz_news) January 29, 2023

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz