Civil society forces in Chile are preparing to launch an international campaign to demand the expulsion of Israel from the United Nations.

This is based on Article 6 of the United Nations Charter against the backdrop of what the campaign describes as “continuous and systematic violations” of international law and resolutions of the UN General Assembly and Security Council.

The official launch of the campaign is due to take place tomorrow during a public event in the capital Santiago while a collection of signatures by electronic petition has already begun.

Campaign data indicated that the petition addressed to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres had already exceeded 57,000 signatures, with a goal of quickly reaching 100,000 signatures.

The organisers of the civil society initiative say the rapid response reflects a “broad popular response” to the dire humanitarian situation in Palestine, and embodies “international civil pressure” to get the international system moving after decades of inaction.

At the media event introducing the initiative, lawyer and former Chilean ambassador Nelson Haddad presented the legal framework for the campaign, explaining that Israel had become a “pariah state according to the definitions of international law,” and that it “does not abide by UN resolutions, nor by the basic rules of international humanitarian law, and practises systematic violations that have been ongoing for more than seven decades”.

Campaign organisers say this mechanism has been used in historical moments, such as the Korean War and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and that activating it now could constitute an “institutional pressure tool” capable of overcoming obstruction within the UN Security Council.

‘Reforming the UN’
The organisers also believe that the goal is not limited to imposing measures against Israel, but extends to “reopening the file of reforming the structure of the United Nations”, restricting the power of the veto, and restoring the principle of legal equality between states in order to limit the ability of one state to “disrupt international justice.”

The petition read as follows:

“We, the undersigned, respectfully but firmly appeal to you to initiate formal procedures to expel the State of Israel from the Organisation, in accordance with Article 6 of the Charter of the United Nations, because of its repeated violations of the principles contained therein.”

The letter continues:

“Emphasising that Israel, through official statements, declares its intention to eliminate the State of Palestine with all its inhabitants, infrastructure, and memory, and accuses every party that criticises its policies of ‘anti-Semitism,’ and practices repression even against Jewish citizens who oppose genocide, thus making its violations extensive, deep, and directed against everyone who disagrees with its orientations.”

The letter describes what is happening in the Gaza Strip as a “complex war crime,” noting that the occupying state is killing “Palestinians with bombs and missiles, destroying medical infrastructure, and exterminating nearly two million people through hunger and thirst”.

‘Starving population, poisoning the land’
Israel is also depriving the population of water, food, and medicine, and destroying and poisoning the land, representing “one of the most serious documented crimes in the modern era”.

The letter adds that the continued dealings of international and academic institutions with Israel are “unjustified and unacceptable”, and that “Israel must be immediately expelled from all international activities, all institutional relations with it must be severed, and a comprehensive arms embargo imposed that contributes to the continuation of the genocide.”

The message concluded by saying: “With Gaza, humanity dies too. We want Palestine to live, for it is the heart of the world.”

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

By Maximiliano Véjares

Washington DC

Chile’s recent local elections, in which moderate, traditional parties staged a comeback, offer a promising sign of political stability. Following five years of uncertainty marked by a social uprising in 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic, and two unsuccessful attempts to rewrite the Pinochet-era constitution, the country appears to be approaching a turning point.

Historically recognized as a model of democratic transition and economic progress, Chile’s recent challenges have cast significant doubt on its democratic resilience. However, the recent election outcome suggests that the period of uncertainty may be drawing to a close.

The center-right Chile Vamos coalition demonstrated its strength by surpassing the far-right Republicanos in their competition for dominance in that sector. Simultaneously, the center-left Socialismo Democratico coalition increased its vote share vis-à-vis the more left-leaning Communist Party and Frente Amplio. Mayors, municipal and regional (states) councilmembers, and governors, are much more evenly distributed across the ideological spectrum than before the elections.

Chilean Democracy Undergoes Dramatic Shifts Since 2019

Since 2019, the country’s democracy has undergone dramatic shifts. That year, a widespread social uprising triggered the election of a constitutional assembly reflecting deep-seated demands for systemic change. In September 2022, however, the population decisively rejected a progressive constitutional draft, with 63% voting against it. Undeterred, political elites attempted a do-over, now with a reformed electoral system, hoping to elect a more balanced constitutional assembly. Despite these efforts, the strategy backfired. Republicanos secured a plurality of votes and the chance to veto decisions in the new assembly, resulting in a conservative draft. Ultimately, the latest proposal met the same fate as its predecessor, with 55% of Chileans rejecting the new constitutional project.

Given these rapid political transformations, last November’s local election results offer a promising sign of renewed stability for Chile. Voters appear to have moved beyond the climate of uncertainty, shifting away from supporting outsider candidates who promised sweeping economic and social restructuring and instead gravitating towards more moderate, centrist political alternatives.

Despite hurting citizens’ aspirations to rewrite the Pinochet-era constitution, the instability caused by years of institutional uncertainty is most likely over. Every significant coalition has agreed not to attempt new constitutional changes in the near future. The new political landscape indicates an emergent recalibration of Chile’s party system.

Despite the good news, some fundamental challenges remain. Political parties and Congress continue to suffer from extremely low public trust, with recent polling indicating that only 8% and 4% trust these institutions, respectively. Moreover, an electoral reform implemented in 2015 that replaced the archaic Pinochet-era binomial system incentivizes politicians to act as individual political entrepreneurs rather than committed party-builders.

The increasing personalization of politics has consequently made legislation and governance increasingly tricky. Recognizing this fragmentation, a cross-party group of senators has proposed a bill to raise the vote threshold required for an electoral list to enter Congress, with the explicit goal of reducing the number of parties in Congress. Improving the institutional design could help political elites enhance policymaking to face the country’s most pressing challenges: rising public safety concerns and a stagnating economy

Chile’s political stability is critical not only for its citizens but also for the global energy landscape. As a significant contributor to the energy transition, the country commands an extensive share of the world’s lithium and copper reserves and production. With the United States and China seeking to develop resilient supply chains and invest in renewable energy infrastructure, Chile is positioned to play a pivotal role in the emerging geopolitical dynamics of critical mineral production and clean energy development.

The Presidential Race Heats Up

Together with more centrist incumbents at the local level, two issues will lurk behind the presidential and legislative elections of November 2025: economic stagnation and escalating public safety concerns. Evelyn Matthei, a right-wing moderate and the daughter of Fernando Matthei—a former military junta member—is the clear frontrunner. A recent poll shows that 22% of citizens would support her if the election were held this week, positioning her ahead of all left-leaning presidential hopefuls. The poll also indicates that Matthei would defeat every contender in a potential runoff, including the far-right Kast. On the contrary, the poll suggests every left-leaning candidate would lose against Matthei in a runoff. In the case Kast made it to a second round, he could be defeated by left leaning former Chilean president Michelle Bachelet, should she have a change of heart and decide to run.

Matthei faces two far-right challengers: José Antonio Kast and Johannes Kaiser. In the 2021 election, Kast beat Chile Vamos but was ultimately defeated by Gabriel Boric in the runoff. Kaiser, a polarizing far-right politician, left the Republicanos party in 2023. Current polling indicates Kaiser’s candidacy is gaining traction, with 8% of voters expressing potential support—a trajectory that suggests growing political momentum.

It is unclear who the contenders on the left will be. Gabriel Boric’s government (2021-2025) is relatively unpopular, with an average approval rating of 30%. Such context makes it hard for many left-leaning political figures to dissociate from the government. Thus far, former president Michelle Bachelet is the only competitive candidate, although at this time she still loses against Matthei in the polls mentioned above. Recently, former President Bachelet indicated that she will not run for a third time.

Lately, the coalitional dynamics within Chile’s left have shifted rapidly. The once-powerful Socialismo Democrático has lost support after endorsing the 2019 wave of demonstrations which, according to research conducted in 2024 by CADEM, are now viewed with disapproval by a majority of respondents. Meanwhile, the more progressive Frente Amplio has emerged as the dominant force among left-leaning parties.

Looking ahead to the June 2025 primaries, two distinct scenarios could emerge if left-wing candidates gain momentum. Under Socialismo Democratico leadership, we would likely see a more market-oriented approach, leveraging their extensive governmental experience and networks of skilled technocrats. On the other hand, if a candidate from Frente Amplio or the communist party prevails, the presidential race would likely center on increasing state control over natural resources and expanding wealth redistribution programs.

Although primary elections are not mandatory, it has become common for large coalitions to nominate their presidential candidates through this mechanism.

Whatever happens next year, the institutional uncertainty stemming from the constitutional discussion has mostly dissipated. If political elites create a more balanced electoral system and find a way to jumpstart the economy, Chile may be back on track on the road to economic progress and democratic stability.

Photo Credit: Universidad de Chile.

Maximiliano Véjares holds a PhD. from Johns Hopkins and an MA from the University of Chicago. He is a senior research associate at Johns Hopkins University’s Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab and a nonresident fellow at American University in Washington, DC. His academic interests are the origins of political development, including democracy, state capacity, and the rule of law. Beyond His scholarly work, Maximiliano has broad professional experience in government and international organizations.

Pacific youth climate champion Suluafi Brianna Fruean has likened her first time in the United Nations building to primary school.

“It was my first time being in the [UN] General Assembly space,” Suluafi said.

“I sat there and I was watching everyone and it kind of reminded me of a mock UN we did when I was in primary school.”

But not in a jovial sense, she was seriously reflecting on the lessons she was taught as a child by her teachers.

“The three main lessons they always told us; be kind to your classmates, your neighbours, clean up after yourself, and be careful with your words.”

The lesson that was front of mind though was the importance of words — a lesson she hoped was dancing in the minds of the world leaders taking the floor.

And at the Climate Ambition Summit last week, the word “ambition” was underscored.

Climate ambition missing
“Yet [climate ambition is] not something we saw from everyone, including the US Head of State who was not present,” Suluafi said.

However, nations that did demonstrate ambition were Chile and Tuvalu, who named the “culprit” of the climate crisis — fossil fuels, oil, gas and coal.

Suluafi said it was critical those words are spoken in these spaces.

“How can we talk about the fight against climate change if we are not naming who we are fighting?”

“Words are important. It is words that literally can mean the sinking or the surviving of our islands.”

Suluafi wants to put to bed a “big misconception” perpetuated by the Western world.

“Pacific Islanders don’t want to move,” she stressed.

“The Western world will tell us that climate change is an opportunity for us to come and live in the West.

“We don’t want to live here!”

‘Go down with our islands’
For years [Pacific] elders have said that they “will go down with our islands”, she said.

Suluafi went on to say Pacific people live in reciprocity with the land.

“We are the land.

“Let’s call a spade a spade. Let’s call the fossil fuel industry out and let’s save my islands.”

“How can we talk about the fight against climate change if we’re not naming who we’re fighting? “– climate activists at #UNGA78 #Vanuatu presser read into weekend energy of NYC 75,000-strong climate march and absence of major emitters speaking at #climateambitionsummit #COP28 pic.twitter.com/v1t3bzh0tL

— Pacific Islands Forum (@ForumSEC) September 20, 2023

Message to polluters
As Australia bids to host COP31, she requests that they take it upon themselves to be “ambitious” with climate initiatives.

“They should not be given the hosting right if they are not actually going to be ambitious enough to represent our region,” Suluafi said.

She believes they have a real opportunity to champion the Pacific Ocean and region but need to be ambitious.

To demonstrate they are being ambitious, Australia will need to at the very least make solid commitments to climate financing, she said.

“What are the commitments that they will make to financing those most vulnerable to climate change including those in their very ocean, their neighbours in the Pacific?”

Phasing out fossil fuels will be another important step.

She said Australia, the UK and the US fail to name fossil fuels as the “culprit” and that needs to change now. Because of their inaction those nations were not invited to speak at the Climate Ambitions Summit last week.

“Because Australia and the US were examples of countries that have not been moving at the same speed as which they have been talking,” Suluafi said.

She said even the US, who was in the Climate Ambition Summit room, was not allowed to speak.

“The UN wanted to give the voices to those who have been ambitious to be able to speak at the Climate Ambition Summit.”

Lifting up the next generation
Suluafi believes having young people in the room at important meetings held at the UN is vital.

According to her, something she noticed while at the UNGA meeting was most of the people were paid to be there.

“It is their job to be here from nine to five or whenever the conference starts,” she said.

“And then you look around at the young people, the civil society, the volunteers, the indigenous people who have made their way into the room who are there because of passion and because of heart.

“We need more heart in these rooms.”

Suluafi commends the UN for inviting young ambitious climate warriors, even if she did not make it into the room this time.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

The Flying Fijians won its Rugby World Cup Pool C match against Australia 22-15 in Saint Etienne with the team’s fourth choice kicker, Simione Kuruvoli, leading them.

And the win came after 69 long years since Fiji last defeated the Wallabies in 1954.

Kuruvoli, who is ranked behind the injured Caleb Muntz, Teti Tela and Frank Lomani as a kicker, started the game at halfback and was given the goal-kicking duties.

He did not disappoint and his personal tally of 14 points ensured the Fijians managed to outpoint the Wallabies in the end, in a match that kept the 41,294 fans at the Stade Geoffroy-Guichard on their toes.

Head coach Simon Raiwalui called Kuruvoli into the starting line-up ahead of Lomani and the 24-year-old stamped his mark.

“I am grateful for the opportunity to start and the trust that was given to me by the coach and team management,” he said.

“It was a tense game and I just focused on my kicks to make sure that we were able to get the points needed.”

Fiji dominated
Fiji dominated the game — and in all facets of the game.

It was something similar to what they did against Wales in Bordeaux two Sundays ago.

The only difference is this time they were able to convert the statistical advantage into winning points in the end.

Kickable options saw Kuruvoli stepping up to the mark, claiming crucial points.

Coach Raiwalui said it was a great win and thanked the boys for sticking to the job at hand.

“We focused on Australia this week and the boys executed the game plan very well,” he said.

“Great to have the win but we are still building and will need to focus on the next one after this.

“Mostly proud of the boys. It’s not just for today, it’s a combination of work over time.

Two hard games next
“Two very hard games coming up. Let’s enjoy this win, will review tonight. I think a lot of the boys will be sore but super proud.”

Captain Waisea Nayacalevu thanked the players and fans for their support.

“Great team effort and the fans were fantastic,” he said. “Proud of the boys for the effort.”

The win means Fiji and Australia are tied in pool C with six points each.

Fiji will need to win both their remaining matches against Georgia and Portugal and hope that the Wallabies fall against Wales in their crunch match.

But that aside, the win over the Australians was celebrated by those who turned up, including Fijians who had flown in from Fiji, New Zealand, Australia and across Europe.

French fans who turned up to watch the game backed Fiji as they could be heard cheering for Fiji on the grandstand and they booed the Australians every time they were penalised in the match.

Australian Fijians say it was tough
The Australians had five Fijians in their line-up, with two of them, wingers Mark Waqanitawase and Suliasi Vunivalu, scoring their tries.

Samu Kerevi, Rob Valetini and Marika Koroibete were strong in defence and made some good runs but they were nullified by their fellow Fijians, who hit them with some bone-crunching tackles.

Vunivalu congratulated Fiji and said they were consistent.

“They started well and kept that throughout,” he said.

“We tried to come back, but they were very strong.”

Koroibete said it was a physical battle.

“They were on from the start to the end, we tried to keep up with them from the start but they were good,” he said.

“As a team we did not work upfront enough to counter that physicality.”

He said they will now have to focus on Wales.

Best Fiji team ever – Serevi
Sevens King Waisale Serevi, who was in the crowd supporting Fiji, said the Flying Fijians team in France was the best ever.

“I think it is the best team ever to play at the World Cup because we are going up and we have beaten Australia now,” he said.

“I believe that maybe we have won a game in the World Cup and going to the quarter-final, we still have two more games and the way we played today showed they can compete on this level.

“The Australia team are a good team, but I think the [Fiji] boys were better today.

“They played to the plan, they played to the strengths of the game they wanted to play. They did everything right and they did compete at the breakdown which is not really the Fijian way of playing rugby.

“I believe with the team that we have we can go through to the quarter-final and we have every opportunity to get to the semi-final.”

First half lead set the pace
Fiji led at halftime 12-8 with halfback Kuruvoli kicking all of Fiji’s points through the boots.

Australia managed a try to Waqanitawase, after the Wallabies had taken a quick lineout throw, with Samu Kerevi running through and passing on to Waqanitawase who dived over.

Fullback Ben Donaldson missed the conversion, but he had opened the scoring in the game with an earlier penalty close to the posts.

Australia was able to defend well against the Fijians in the first 40 minutes, keeping their opponents at bay inside their own half.

Fiji put together several phases and attacks in the first spell, with Kuruvoli masterminding their moves.

Josua Tuisova, Semi Radradra and captain Nayacalevu were all busy on attack while the forwards dominated in the ruck and scrum situations.

A telling factor Fiji displayed was their strong forward plays, holding their own in the scrums and lineouts as well.

But Australia challenged their throw-ins towards the end of the first spell and won two successive Fijian throw-ins near their own line.

Good start in second spell
The Fijians got straight back into the game in the second spell and Man of the Match, winger Tuisova scored out wide after he collected a bouncing ball from a Kuruvoli place kick off the base of a ruck.

They then missed a penalty attempt from Lomani and Tuisova swung the ball wide and out the sideline as they had an opportunity to run the ball with four players sitting outside him.

It was tit-for-tat after that as both teams tried to put phases together.

A penalty midway inside the Wallabies side of the field gave Lomani another opportunity to extend their lead and he made it 22-8 from that kick.

Australian fullback Ben Donaldson converted Vunivalu’s try and closed the gap to 22-15.

Fiji hung on with some great steals in ruck-ball situations to end the game with the famous win, even though Lomani’s last kick sailed wide.

Scorecard:
Fiji 22 – Tries: Josua Tuisova (43′); Conv: Simione Kuruvoli (44′); Pens: Simione Kuruvoli (12′, 21′, 27′, 33′); Frank Lomani (66′).

Australia 15 – Tries: Mark Nawaqanitawase (23′), Suli Vunivalu (68′); Conv: Ben Donaldson (70′); Pens: Ben Donaldson (3′).

Other Pacific results:
Results in other Pacific matches at the World Cup were mixed with Manu Samoa defeating newcomers Chile 43-10 at Bordeaux in pool D while Tongan coach Toutai Kefu admitted his Ikale Tahi side had been outclassed 59-16 by top-ranked Ireland at Nantes in pool B.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

In this the seventh episode of A View from Afar podcast for 2023 political scientist Dr Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning examine the strengths and weaknesses of democracy around the world.

In particular Paul and Selwyn consider how and why democracy in many countries around the world is on the slide.

They examine the causes of democratic backsliding and also test why the erosion of high democratic ideas have, in many cases, popular support.

First, Paul offers a context, and defines democratic backsliding. He identifies the countries that are decisively eroding their own democracies of principles that were once embraced by both power elites and citizenry.

The Questions include:

• Why are we seeing more democratic backsliding in recent times?
• Is it just a political phenomenon or does it extend beyond the political sphere?
• Where has democratic backsliding been most evident?
• What do Chile, Guatemala, Israel and Thailand have in common when it comes to backsliding?
• What is occurring in the United States?
• If a democracy “backslides,” what does it slide into?

INTERACTION WHILE LIVE:

Paul and Selwyn encourage their live audience to interact while they are live with questions and comments.

To interact during the live recordings of this podcast, go to Youtube.com/c/EveningReport/

Remember to subscribe to the channel.

For the on-demand audience, you can also keep the conversation going on this debate by clicking on one of the social media channels below:

• Youtube.com/c/EveningReport/
• Facebook.com/selwyn.manning
• Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning

RECOGNITION: The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication. Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category.

You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

In this the seventh episode of A View from Afar podcast for 2023 political scientist Dr Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning will examine the strengths and weaknesses of democracy around the world.

In particular Paul and Selwyn will consider how and why democracy in many countries around the world is on the slide.

They will examine the causes of democratic backsliding and also test why the erosion of high democratic ideas have, in many cases, popular support.

First, Paul will give us a context, and will define democratic backsliding. He will identify the countries that are decisively eroding their own democracies of principles that were once embraced by both power elites and citizenry.

The Questions:

• Why are we seeing more democratic backsliding in recent times?
• Is it just a political phenomenon or does it extend beyond the political sphere?
• Where has democratic backsliding been most evident?
• What do Chile, Guatemala, Israel and Thailand have in common when it comes to backsliding?
• What is occurring in the United States?
• If a democracy “backslides,” what does it slide into?

INTERACTION WHILE LIVE:

Paul and Selwyn encourage their live audience to interact while they are live with questions and comments.

To interact during the live recording of this podcast, go to Youtube.com/c/EveningReport/

Remember to subscribe to the channel.

For the on-demand audience, you can also keep the conversation going on this debate by clicking on one of the social media channels below:

• Youtube.com/c/EveningReport/
• Facebook.com/selwyn.manning
• Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning

RECOGNITION: The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication. Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category.

You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

Chile is an important comparator country to New Zealand; in terms of physical geography, political economy, and demography (including conflict between indigenous peoples and ‘colonisers’). In terms of physical geography, it is mostly temperate; and, most importantly, it is in the southern hemisphere.

The above chart shows excess deaths in Chile since January 2020. (While I have a similar chart for New Zealand, it’s too ‘noisy’ to show here; this is due to New Zealand’s small population. Chile has four times as many people as New Zealand.)

This chart shows weekly peaks for excess death, by age group. (The data is slightly smoothed. To reduce random noise, it uses a kind of three-period centred moving average, in which the featured week has a 50% weight, and the weeks before and after each have a 25% weight.)

For Chile, we see two very sharp peaks of covid mortality, in May/June 2020 and February 2022. Neither of these should really be characterised as ‘winter outbreaks’ of Covid19. We also see a longer lasting outbreak in the first half of 2021, also not winter.

Chile did its best to suppress Covid19, but it was always harder to do this in a continental country than in an archipelago such as New Zealand. Chilean covid policy was more particular than most countries in trying to protect the elderly. This shows in the initial 2020 peak; and also in 2021 when Chile was one of the early vaccinators, and gave significant priority to its oldest citizens.

By 2022, much of the immunity – from vaccination, from the 2021 epidemic, and from other respiratory viruses – had clearly waned. So, when covid reappeared in the summer of 2021/22, there was a large cohort of particularly vulnerable older people, who died in huge numbers. We also see the second 2022 wave in Chile as in New Zealand, with winter deaths peaking in July; again mostly older people.

To understand what happens in winter, we need to take account of the other winter illnesses, of which influenza is epidemic and common colds are endemic.

The above charts show this more contextualised picture, for Chile and for New Zealand. (Again, these charts use the centred moving average technique, which flattens the peaks in the charts.) Chile typically has 2,000 deaths per week, whereas New Zealand typically has 600. We also note that the plots for 2016 to 2019 in Chile are closer together than for New Zealand; suggesting that Chile is not aging as fast as New Zealand, and also that Chile’s annual population growth is less than New Zealand’s (reflecting New Zealand’s higher net immigration in the late 2010s).

In both charts the black line shows ‘expected deaths’ for 2020. (I have calculated this myself, and have shownthat my calculation is credible.) One problem with the age-based ‘excess deaths’ data from ourworldindata.org is that it is hard to check the validity of their estimates for expected deaths. I have also calculated expected (ie predicted) deaths for 2021 and 2022, though not shown these in order to keep the charts ‘clean’. (The annual percentage increase in predicted deaths for New Zealand was more than double the equivalent calculation for Chile, on account of New Zealand’s faster aging and faster general population growth.)

Chile’s first mortality peak, in 2020, was delayed until early winter thanks to public health measures. In Chile, June has been the peak month for mortality linked to influenza and common colds. Excess deaths (eg for 2020) is the difference between actual deaths and predicted deaths. Thus, in June 2020 in Chile, ‘excess deaths’ attributable to Covid19 understates actual ‘Covid19 deaths’, because we know that covid to a large extent displaced influenzas and common colds. This was different this year, however, with the peak of excess deaths being July rather than June. The most pertinent measure is ‘excess deaths for all seasonal illnesses’. By this measure we can see that excess weekly deaths, normally about 500 in June, grew to about 2,000 in June 2020.

In New Zealand, excess deaths were substantially negative in 2020, in the absence of deaths from influenza and covid. And common cold related deaths were less than usual. 2021 seasonal mortality was about normal, with certain unspecified ‘cold’ conditions being the main culprit that winter. December in 2020 and 2021 saw more total deaths than would normally have been expected. The 2022 (belated) outbreak in New Zealand saw substantial though not dramatic excess covid deaths from March to July.

Mortality data for New Zealand released to international databases shows a sharp decline in excess covid deaths from August this year. Some of this data may be upwardly revised in coming releases.

We should note that the actual weekly death peak for New Zealand is 965 (week ended 26 July 2022); it looks less than this on the chart due to the moving average ‘anti-noise’ technique used. That is the highest number of deaths in any week in New Zealand’s history since November 1918. (Before 2022, that record was 863 deaths in the week to 2 August 2017, a week of record influenza-caused deaths.)

The final two charts show excess deaths in both countries as percentages above ‘normal’ for each of the three covid years; we note that ‘normal’ is adjusted for each year, and it represents the absence of both covid and seasonal increments to the death rate. For New Zealand the main feature to look out for is whether the rapid drop-off in reported deaths from late July is confirmed.

Chile’s excess deaths this winter have been significantly higher than New Zealand’s, with a July peak of 56% (covid and seasonal) and an August peak of 38%. New Zealand is not exceptional, however. My sense is that, this coming summer, excess deaths in New Zealand (in percentage terms) will exceed excess deaths in Chile.

*******

Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.

A View from Afar – In this podcast, political scientist Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning examine political events taking shape in South America.

In particular, Buchanan and Manning detail how there is a presidential run-off election in Colombia this Saturday and examine the outcomes of recent elections in Chile, Nicaragua, Honduras and Peru.

Paul takes us through the political landscape and highlights what this means for populism, left-right ideologies and for the South American continent and its respective political partners.

For example; in this episode Buchanan and Manning examine the so-called Pink Tide of (supposed) indigenous socialism started by Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales – and what relevancy this has had with regard to the Summit of Americas.

And, with respect to the Summit of Americas, this event is used as a test of how far the United States has fallen as a global leader.

QUESTIONS:
What is the latest emerging from the political hot-bed of South America?
What are the political trends there with populism, pragmatism, and left-right ideologies?
Why has the Summit of Americas been regarded as a fiasco and how does this impact on the United States’ reputation?

You can comment on this debate by clicking on one of these social media channels and interacting in the social media’s comment area. Here are the links:

• Facebook.com/selwyn.manning
• Youtube
• Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning

If you miss the LIVE Episode, you can see it as video-on-demand, and earlier episodes too, by checking out EveningReport.nz or, subscribe to the Evening Report podcast here.

The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top  Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication.

Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category. You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

In the context of police brutality in the US, which has many similar dynamics around the world, stories like that of Alejandro Treuquil in Chile call our attention. His assassination is still under investigation, but declarations by his family verify that the Mapuche leader was regularly harassed and his life threatened by the Carabineros police. In 2018, another Mapuche leader, Camilo Catrillanca, was also assassinated by a police officer. The anthropologist, Enrique Antileo, also Mapuche, analyzes this new crime for COHA. He describes an atrocity that took the life of a father and defender of the rights of his ancestral community. Police brutality is a continent-wide problem that gravely impacts the most vulnerable communities. In both the US and Chile, the police, who enforce multiple hierarchies of domination, are meeting with ongoing resistance and growing international denunciation.

Por Enrique Antileo Baeza
Desde Chile

Last June 4, the spokesperson for the “We Newen Community”, Alejandro Treuquil, was assassinated, shot by unknown assailants while he was searching for his horse; three other persons were wounded in the incident. This all happened in the town of Collipulli, in the Araucanía region (Southern Chile).

This crime, from the perspective of those familiar with the context, is related to a series of threats made by Carabineros and other paramilitary groups that constantly harass communities organized in the struggle over Mapuche land. In this case, Alejandro, along with 60 families who participated in the recuperation of the San Antonio Institute, drew the attention of hitmen from power groups in the area who are often protected by the Chilean police and judicial system.

Although the facts remain to be clarified, and although the Prosecutor’s Office and the Investigative Police are working on the matter, for the wife of the werken (spokesperson) Alejandro, there was a clear motive involved in what happened. Andrea Neculpán pointed out to Interferencia media outlet that “about two weeks ago we began to be harassed by Carabineros. In fact my husband was shot in the head. They even called him to threaten him.” Andrea’s report to the journalist Paula Huenchumil also indicates that the Carabineros had entered the area on June 3, 2020, and being driven away by the werken Alejandro, the uniformed men threaten to kill him.

This cruel murder has left Andrea without her life companion and his three children, 9, 5 and 4, without their father. It is a devastating crime in human terms that has dealt a serious blow to Mapuche communities and organizations.

The power groups, constituted to defend the large estates and the forestry business, have been perpetrating criminal and murderous actions for many years, driven by rabid racism and its concomitant disregard for the lives of the Mapuche. That contempt is also reflected in the sparse coverage of the Chilean media and in the insensitivity of many about what happened.

Today the lives of many leaders of Mapuche political processes of  resistance are in danger. In countries such as Mexico, Honduras and Chile, the selective murder of land defenders, and the indigenous leadership, has become a perverse practice, financed by groups  hungry for wealth. That is why maximum solidarity is urgent, maximum unity in the fight against racism, to denounce these acts and ensure they do not go unpunished like many previous attacks.

Today, the Mapuche people and their organizations are in the process of claiming their rights to self-determination and to the recovery of their ancestral lands that have been seized by the State and by private individuals. This fight has the support of hundreds of social organizations in Chile and other countries.

This is a call to fraternity among the peoples who struggle. It is vital to the advancement of our collective denunciations and the development of improved collective security, that we combat the racial attacks and organize ourselves in various spaces. And above all, to indicate in letters wrought large that Mapuche lives, and the lives of all oppressed  peoples, matter.

Enrique Antileo Baeza, Mapuche, is an anthropologist, Doctor in Latin American Studies from the University of Chile. Also a member of the studies and research center “Mapuche History Community”

(Main photo-credit: Alejandro’s family) 

Translation from original Spanish by Fred Mills

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In an extraordinary step backward a Chilean Court of Appeals granted release and sentence reductions to 17 State actors convicted of crimes against humanity perpetrated against thousands of Chilean citizens during the Pinochet dictatorship, provoking condemnation by survivors and the international human rights community. In the context of several months of relentless and brutal government repression of pro-democracy demonstrations and President Sebastián Piñera’s intransigent commitment to a failed economic model, this show of impunity sends the wrong message to the police forces who have already brutalized thousands of Chileans and undermined the rule of law. These measures violate international human rights law signed by Chile.

COHA republishes this open letter initiated by Chilean concerned citizens in Washington DC, supported by more than one hundred people from different countries, against impunity in Chile.

Chilean residents in the United States and persons of all nationalities express their concern for impunity in Chile for violators of human rights

We the undersigned Chilean residents in the US and persons of all nationalities profoundly condemn the judgement of acquittal and reduction of sentences by the Court of Appeals of Santiago, for 17 violators of human rights, adjudicated for crimes against humanity committed during the military dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet.

Minister Juan Cristóbal Mera Muñoz, Minister Mireya López Miranda and member attorney Cristián Lepin Molina, absolved the former agents of the National Directorate of Intelligence (Dirección Nacional de Inteligencia, DINA) Pedro Espinoza, Rolf Wenderoth, Hermon Alfaro, Pedro Betterlich, Claudio Pacheco, Orlando Torrejón, Orlando Altamirano and Eusebio López.  They also reduced the sentences of Ricardo Lawrence, Jorge Andrade, Juan Morales Salgado, Ciro Torré, Sergio Escalona, Juvenal Piña, Jorge Díaz, Gustavo Guerrero y Gladys Calderón to 3 years and 1 day. Pedro Espinoza was an accomplice of the notorious criminal who was the right hand man of Pinochet, Manuel Contreras. Espinoza was the chief of the Villa Grimaldi, a center of torture and forced disappearance. Espinoza was also involved in the operation called “Caravan of death” in which almost 100 persons around the country were assassinated, and he participated in the terrorist attack on Orlando Letelier in Washington DC. All of these criminals had been convicted on July 21, 2017 for 16 kidnappings and one homicide perpetrated in Villa Grimaldi.

The judges’ actions benefit state actors, functionaries of the armed forces and Carabineros police who committed crimes against humanity, including kidnappings, sexual assaults, indescribable tortures and assassinations of Chileans for their political beliefs. According to international law, such crimes constitute acts of state terrorism.

The campaign of impunity has even extended to perpetrators of human rights violations who are completing their sentences in the Punta Peuco prison. Pinochetista legislators are pressuring the Piñera government to grant those among these prisoners who are over 75 years old the benefit of house arrest, measures presently being studied with regard to the coronavirus. The characteristics of Punta Peuco prison, however, considered a place “of luxury” on account of its many benefits, comfortable rooms, and special services, does not justify the application of the same criterion used in the case of overcrowded conditions found in ordinary penitentiary centers.

These very grave deeds of the past few days imply an emotional drama, especially cruel for those family members and loved ones of the thousands of victims of violations of human rights committed by these State agents. Chile has demonstrated an enormous legal ambiguity and  ongoing policy of impunity since the end of the dictatorship. These recent actions, especially the decision of the Court of Appeals, demonstrates that the application of justice in the face of serious violations of human rights continues to be an unfinished task, politicized and debilitated by certain sectors of the society which even confuse the right to defend a political ideology with the necessity to defend, above all, the human life. Also, there ought to be a moral imperative to oppose state terrorism and  bring to justice those who infringe against the dignity of the human personality.

With the decision by the Court, Chile is also out of compliance with international treaties and the jurisprudence of the Interamerican Court of Human Rights (Corte Interamericana de Derechos Humanos, CIDH). The cases of Almonacid, Arellano and others v. Chile, and La Cantuta v. Perú  have established unequivocally the obligation of member states to investigate and prosecute all crimes against humanity, treating them as the most serious violations of human rights. Once responsibility is established, the state, through its judicial branch, ought to apply sanctions commensurate with the gravity of the crimes. These principles of international law  obligate states to avoid any measure that permits amnesty or sets aside the responsibility of the guilty. Chile appears to regress in this regard, abandoning the doctrine that the CIDH has followed for years and forgetting the purpose of these norms of international law related to human rights, laws which are designed to provide a disincentive, under any circumstances, to commit such crimes.

We call upon the Supreme Court, the government authorities, and legislators to forcefully exercise their full legal and political authority to urge Chile to fulfill its international obligations with regard to human rights and vigorously oppose these acts of impunity for crimes so serious that they have affected and continue to affect generations of citizens of our country.

Signatures

1. Abril Viscaya, Venezuela
2. Ada Troncoso, US
3. Adam Kaluba, US
4. Adolfo Guidali, France
5. Adriana Bolívar, Argentina
6. Alejandra Barrueto, Chile
7. Alejandra Montecino, Chile
8. Alex Main, US
9. Alicia Bustillo, US
10. Alicia Soto, US
11. Alma Torres-Martinez, US
12. Ana Laura Pereira, US
13. Anahí Arizmendi, Venezuela
14. Andrea Rojas, US
15. Andrés Habella, US
16. Andrew Vavrunek, US
17. Angelica McInerney, US
18. Ayla Bailey, US
19. Blanca Flor Bonilla, El Salvador
20. Bonnie Fox, US
21. Bonnie McCrimmon, Canada
22. Brenda Choi, US
23. Camila Rojas, Chile
24. Camilo Soria, Chile
25. Carlos Alejandro Morales Mateluna, US
26. Carlos Morales Mateluna, Switzerland
27. Carmen Paz Nunez Hoffmann, US
28. Carolina Cucumides, US
29. Carter Carlson, US
30. Cecilia Morales, Chile
31. Cecilia Toledo Gonzalez, US
32. Celestino Barrera, US
33. Cheryl LaBash, US
34. Cindy BelloweBellowe, US
35. Clayton Lee, US
36. Cloe Soria, Chile
37. Cristian Foerster, Chile
38. Cristian Gamboa, US
39. Darlene Hebert, Canada
40. David Paul, US
41. Demetrus Jackson, US
42. Deyanira Garza, US
43. Dianne Budd, US
44. Edalis Mejia, US
45. Elena Hildreth, US
46. Evelyn González, US
47. Estefania Del Real, Chile
48. Fabiana Gallardo, Chile
49. Felipe Fredes , US
50. Francesca Emanuelle
51. Frederick Mills, US
52. Gema Casanova, US
53. Gonzalo Valerio Soto, Honduras
54. Héctor Sepúlveda, US
55. Ignacio Shinya, Chile
56. Isabel Pizarro, Chile
57. Isella Calderon, Chile
58. Jill Clark-Gollub, US
59. John Moriarty, US
60. Jorge Consuegra, US
61. Jorge Pizarro, US
62. Jorge Ramírez, Chile
63. Julia Stover, US
64. Juliana Barnet, US
65. Karen Morales, US
66. Karina Armenta, US
67. Katrina McBrian, US
68. Laura Franco, Venezuela
69. Laura Soria, Chile
70. Leonardo Flores, US
71. Leonardo Vera, US
72. Leslie Salgado, US
73. Lidia Soto, Chile
74. Liliana Cannobbio, Chile
75. Lilly Macier, US
76. Luis Soria González-Vera, Chile
77. Márcia Cury, Brasil
78. Marco E., US
79. Maria Cristina Urquieta Aranciabia, US
80. María Paz González, Chile
81. Marta Pizarro, Chile
82. Martha Allen, US
83. Merrill Cole, US
84. Michelle Ellner, US
85. Miriam Manresa, US
86. Monica Navarro, US
87. Morelia Reali, US
88. Natalie Deriu, US
89. Nora Pizarro, US
90. Pamela Alejandra Weitz, US
91. Pamela Cecilia Molina Toledo, US
92. Pamela Molina, US
93. Pamela Zúñiga Grandi, US
94. Patricia Cifuentes, Chile
95. Patricia Edith Pizarro Toro, Chile
96. Patricio Zamorano, US
97. Phoenix Oaks, US
98. Rebecca Ellner, US
99. Robinet Castillo-Zarate, US
100. Rodrigo López, Chile
101. Ronald Gallardo Duarhtt, Chile
102. Sergio Galikea, Chile
103. Taigan Wright, US
104. Teresa aybar Carbajal, US
105. Teri Matson, US
106. Timothy Brett, Canada
107. Vanessa Asenjo, Mexico
108. Walter Gustavo Weitz Marholz, US
109. Yela Andarcia, Mexico
110. Yu-Ting Chu, US
111. Yvonne Mcdonald, US
112. Zarko Retamal Yacsich, US

Photo credit: Museo de la Memoria, Santiago of Chile

By Frederick B. Mills
From Washington DC

Over the past month, ruling elites in Ecuador and Chile as well as the Secretary General of the OAS, Luis Almagro, have been warning that the specter of the President of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, is behind rising anti-neoliberal sentiments throughout the region. A continental-wide effort of the right is trying to avoid recognition of the actual deep social and economic inequalities afflicting the population and the clear responsibility of the neoliberal political class for these maladies.

For example, on October 8, President Lenín Moreno blamed Rafael Correa and Nicolás Maduro for the protests in Ecuador:

“The satrapy of Maduro has activated along with Correa their plan of destabilization. They are the corrupt who . . . are behind this coup attempt and are using and instrumentalizing the indigenous sectors; taking advantage of their mobilization to sack and destroy everything in their way.”^[1]

Ecuadorians reject IMF policies

Within days of this statement, it became evident that the deployment of brutal repression by Ecuadoran security forces only further galvanized the popular uprising. It also became increasingly clear that this was a broad based movement in response to Moreno’s imposition of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) adjustment policies at the expense of the large majority of constituents. So Lenín Moreno, in a dramatic about face, dispensed with conspiracy theories and addressed the nation with some contrition, promising to repeal the decree removing gasoline subsidies and to engage in dialogue with various sectors clamouring for economic reforms. His tone was now conciliatory:

“This is how to struggle for peace: talking. A transparent roundtable of dialogue, with nothing to hide! Everything before the eyes of compatriots.” (Tweet, Oct. 13, 2019)^[2]

On October 16, despite Moreno’s own change of posture, a statement was issued by the Organization of American States (OAS) General Secretariat resuming the charge against Maduro and adding Cuba for good measure:

“The crisis in Ecuador is an expression of the distortions that the Venezuelan and Cuban dictatorships have installed in the political systems of the hemisphere. However, what recent events have also shown is that the intentional and systematic strategy of the two dictatorships to destabilize democracies is no longer as effective as in the past.”^[3]

Although there was no evidence for these accusations, we could expect no less from OAS General Secretary Luis Almagro, a fanatical anti-Chavista who has been scouring the hills for communists while undermining the multilateralism of the Washington-based OAS.

Chilean population says “enough!”

In Chile, a similar scenario has been unfolding. After several days of mass demonstrations and brutal repression by the security forces, President Sebastián Piñera went on national television surrounded by military leaders and issued an ominous warning to the nation:

“We are at war against a powerful enemy, implacable, that does not respect anything or anyone and is prepared to use violence and delinquency without any limit, and that is ready to burn our hospitals, metro, supermarkets, and the only purpose of causing the most damage possible.” (Oct. 20, 2019)^[4]

Given Piñera’s antipathy for President Maduro, this was likely an allusion to the Chavista government in Venezuela^[5], as confirmed by his Foreign Minister Teodoro Ribera, who used Twitter to denounce the “intervention of dictator Maduro.”^[6] While calling Maduro a dictator, Piñera’s  declaration of war against his own people literally brought back the repressive machinery of the Pinochet dictatorship, including the infamous Carabineros and torture centers, and multiplied the indignation of a broad based citizen’s resistance.

Conservative politicians in Chile and overseas quickly backed conspiracy theories to blame a foreign enemy, including the Russians, a claim made by the U.S. State Department diplomat Michael Kozak.^[7] The foreign intervention theory was also supported by right-wing leaders in Argentina, like Miguel Ángel Pichetto, VP candidate with Mauricio Macri^[8], and Venezuela, with Juan Guaidó´s operative, Julio Borges, denouncing an “international destabilization strategy” designed by Cuba and Venezuela.^[9]

On October 25th, the OAS doubled down on this conspiracy theory in the case of Chile, releasing another press statement accusing again the Venezuelan and Cuban governments of intervening in the social unrest.^[10]

The conservative media in Chile also played a role. La Tercera was obligated to correct false information it had published on its front page, accusing imaginary “Cuban and Venezuelan immigrants” of being the instigators and actual perpetrators of the fires that destroyed some metro stations and trains.^[11] The outrageous accusations were dismissed by the judicial investigators,^[12] and criticized by several sectors for how such unsubstantiated allegations could negatively impact the growing immigrant community in the country.

Just days after this new OAS declaration, as the blood of protesters stained the streets of Santiago by the hands of military troops and police forces,  Piñera asked the nation for forgiveness for his “lack of vision.” A million people^[13] demonstrated in the streets of Santiago on a historic October 25th to once and for all refute the conspiracy theories. The giant peaceful march, the biggest since the end of Pinochet’s dictatorship, provided a strong voice for significant reforms to address the extreme inequality in Chile and the permanent economic suffering of most of the population. Piñera said:

“It is true that the problems have accumulated over many decades and that the distinct governments, neither they nor we were able to recognize the magnitude of this situation.” (Oct. 23, 2019)^[14]

Three days later, with mounting casualties from his “war,” Piñera asked his cabinet to proffer their resignations.^[15] In the end, it was not Maduro or Cuba, but the erosion of the quality of life of millions of Chileans that inspired the uprising and calls for a constituent assembly.

The actual enemy is inequality

In short, once it became undeniably clear that these were home grown popular uprisings in Ecuador and Chile, the same leaders who blamed Maduro and declared war on their own people abruptly changed course, calling for dialogue to save their own skins, demobilize the massive outcry, and offer piecemeal instead of structural reforms of failed neoliberal economic models.

Scapegoating Maduro and other leftists for the epochal changes underway in Latin America and the Caribbean belies the social-historical-economic contexts of push-back against neoliberalism in the region. The election of Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Mexico (July 2018); the re-election of President Evo Morales in Bolivia (October 21, 2019), the election of Alberto Fernández in Argentina (October 27);  the first round lead in Uruguay’s presidential election by Daniel Martínez (October 27); and the loss of Uribistas in local elections in Colombia (October 27) have not been procedures hatched in Caracas, but signals a growing public rejection of IMF mandated adjustment policies and a desire for economic models that put people’s needs before private accumulation. 

The same anti-neoliberal and decolonizing sentiments driving these recent electoral victories of the left have inspired uprisings in Haiti, Ecuador and Chile, and protests in Honduras and Panama. It appears that announcements of the ebb of the pink tide, by intellectuals across the political spectrum, were premature. Despite the imposition of the Monroe Doctrine by Washington, the attacks on progressive governments by the Lima Group, and the extreme right wing partisanship of the Secretary General of the OAS, conservatives have not consolidated their hold on the continent; on the contrary, they have demonstrated the failure of the neoliberal economic model.

The comic legend of “Super-bigote”

The conspiracy theory that blamed Maduro for the epochal change sweeping the Americas quickly gave rise to comic relief, as the legend of the power of super-bigote (referring to Maduro’s prominent mustache) to topple governments, spread through social media, with comic-book and video depictions of Maduro exhibiting his super powers.^[16]

Maduro, for his part, has taken the claims about his great power to move millions of people to rebellion with good humor:

“Yesterday President Lenín Moreno said that what was happening was my fault, that I move my mustache and overthrow governments (…) I am thinking about the next government I can overthrow with my mustache, super mustache.” (Oct. 8)^[17]

So the legend of the super-mustache will go down in history as a joke, but one that was used to justify crimes against unarmed demonstrators in Santiago and Quito. This will not stop the neoliberal ruling elites, however, from continuing to propagate this conspiracy theory as part of regime-change propaganda against Caracas.

While the anti-neoliberal tide rising throughout the Americas cannot be credited to the movement of Maduro’s mustache, there is no doubt that a “bolivarian breeze,” perhaps even a “hurricane” is indeed being felt across the continent.  But this breeze is not limited to politics in Caracas. It is present wherever people are resisting recolonization and keeping alive the dream of the Patria Grande.

Frederick B. Mills is Professor of Philosophy at Bowie State University and Co-Director of the Council on Hemispheric Affairs

Editors: Roger Harris and Patricio Zamorano

Translations by the author are unofficial.

End notes

^[1] Original Spanish: “El sátrapa de Maduro ha activado junto con Correa su plan de desestabilización. Son los corruptos que han sentido los pasos de la justicia cercándolos para que respondan; ellos son quienes están detrás de este intento de golpe de Estado y están usando e instrumentalizando algunos sectores indígenas, aprovechando su movilización para saquear y destruir a su paso.” CNN en Español. October 8, 2019. URL accessed on Oct. 28, 2019 : https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2019/10/08/lenin-moreno-culpa-a-maduro-y-correa-por-protestas-en-ecuador/

^[2] Original Spanish: “Así se lucha por la paz: hablando. ¡Una mesa de diálogo transparente, sin nada que esconder! Todo ante los ojos de los compatriotas”. From Twitter. URL accessed on Oct. 28, 2019. https://twitter.com/Lenin/status/1183561920311369728?s=20

^[3] Statement of the OAS General Secretariat, October 16, 2019. URL accessed on Oct. 28, 2019. https://www.oas.org/en/media_center/press_release.asp?sCodigo=E-081/19

^[4] Original Spanish: “Estamos en guerra contra un enemigo poderoso, implacable, que no respeta a nada ni a nadie y que está dispuesto a usar la violencia y la delincuencia sin ningún límite, que está dispuesto a quemar nuestros hospitales, el metro, los supermercados, con el único propósito de producir el mayor daño posible”. (Oct. 20, 2019) Infobae, October 21, 2019. URL accessed on Oct. 19, 2019. https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2019/10/21/sebastian-pinera-estamos-en-guerra-contra-un-enemigo-poderoso/

^[5] See El Impulso, September 24, 2019. URL accessed Oct. 28, 2019. https://www.elimpulso.com/2019/09/24/sebastian-pinera-en-la-onu-tenemos-que-terminar-con-la-dictadura-en-venezuela-24sep/

^[6] https://twitter.com/TeodoroRiberaN/status/1185988967973478406

^[7] “The Russians are meddling again, this time in Chile, warns US diplomat.” https://www.rt.com/news/471945-russian-interference-chile-protests/

^[8] Miguel Ángel Pichetto: “Hay un proceso de desestabilización en América Latina con injerencia venezolana-cubana”. https://www.infobae.com/politica/2019/10/22/miguel-angel-pichetto-hay-un-proceso-de-desestabilizacion-en-america-latina-con-injerencia-venezolana-cubana/

^[9] “Julio Borges culpa a Maduro y a Cuba por las protestas en Chile y Ecuador”. https://www.diariolasamericas.com/america-latina/julio-borges-culpa-maduro-y-cuba-las-protestas-chile-y-ecuador-n4186456

^[10] “Statement of the OAS General Secretariat on the situation in Chile”. https://en.mercopress.com/2019/10/25/statement-of-the-oas-general-secretariat-on-the-situation-in-chile

^[11] “Aclaración sobre artículo publicado por La Tercera: un error del que nos hacemos cargo.” https://www.latercera.com/nacional/noticia/aclaracion-articulo-publicado-la-tercera-error-del-nos-hacemos-cargo/881975/

^[12] FISCALÍA DESCARTÓ INFORMACIÓN SOBRE POSIBLE SOSPECHOSO DE LOS ATENTADOS AL METRO. http://lanacion.cl/2019/10/28/fiscalia-descarto-informacion-sobre-posible-sospechoso-de-los-atentados-al-metro/

^[13]“Chile protests: One million join peaceful march for reform”. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-50191746

^[14] Original Spanish: “Es verdad que los problemas se acumulaban desde hace muchas décadas y que los distintos gobiernos no fueron ni fuimos capaces de reconocer esta situación en toda su magnitud.” BBC, October 23, 2018. URL accessed Oct. 28, 2019. https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-50148380

^[15] BBC, October. 26, 2019. URL accessed Oct. 28, 2019. https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-50196006

^[16] From Twitter. URL accessed Oct. 28, 2019. https://twitter.com/SuperBigote_?s=17

^[17] Original Spanish: “Ayer salió el presidente Lenín Moreno a decir que lo que está ocurriendo allá es culpa mía, que yo y que muevo mis bigotes y tumbo gobiernos (…) estoy pensando qué próximo gobierno puedo tumbar con los bigotes, súper bigote.” Mazo, October 8, 2019. URL accessed Oct. 28, 2019. https://mazo4f.com/super-bigote-asi-maduro-ridiculizo-acusaciones-del-traidor-lenin-moreno-en-su-contra

by Patricio Zamorano
From Washington DC

The media had to double down through a constant barrage of violent photos and videos arriving through social networks so that especially non-Chileans, who are accustomed to the mythical image of a stable and exemplary country, could internalize and believe the spectacle of fire and blood on their screens.

The president of Chile, Sebastián Piñera, realized a feat impossible to imagine after almost 30 years since the return of democracy: provoke street clashes between Chilean youth, who were not raised during the dictatorship, and military troops, while enforcing  a curfew, a state of emergency, and the suspension of some constitutional guarantees. These measures create a ghostly continuum of the dictatorship embedded in the Chilean collective psyche.

The outcome thus far will go down in history: as of October 23rd, the official count is 16 deaths (5 of them by military and police forces), 226 wounded and 1,692 detained.^[1] In addition to the human cost, more than 70 metro stations were damaged, with 20 set on fire, and some trains destroyed. A large amount of public and private infrastructure has also been destroyed.

Of course, the analysis by apologists for the government, that this was all a surprise, is meant for foreign consumption. Last weekend Chileans knew all too well what was coming. The population of the country has been subjected to state violence for decades. The images of these past days are the same ones seen during the painful protests of the ‘80s, when the country seethed from the poverty and desperation produced by the political and economic repression of the Pinochet dictatorship. The images recall the state repression inflicted against secondary school students 10 years ago during the so called “Penguin Revolution” (“penguin” is a nickname for students, based on the colors of school uniforms), when children were attacked by police dogs. And the images also remind us of the legal coercive methods such as the violence of the anti-terrorist law applied to the Mapuches in southern Chile.

The president of Chile, Sebastián Piñera, realized a feat impossible to imagine after almost 30 years since the return of democracy: provoke street clashes between Chilean youth, who were not raised during the dictatorship, and military troops, while enforcing  a curfew, a state of emergency, and the suspension of some constitutional guarantees.

The Chilean police, called “carabineros,” have always been a repressive force, adding to the other  repressive institutions that have converted Chile into a great pressure cooker. The government struggles to maintain a made-up face before the international community. Far from creating a narrative of reconciliation in response to social upheaval, the government uses the idea of “war” against an “internal enemy.”^[2] Pinochet used this painful metaphor to justify the violation of human rights of Chileans and provide a moral basis for soldiers to exercise repression directly against their compatriots.

One has to remember that despite the advances of the social agenda since the end of the dictatorship, Pinochet managed to implant neoliberal privatizations that still impact the daily lives of 17 million Chileans. He privatized education and created an underfinanced public sector that compromises the well being of millions of children, condemning them to substandard technical-professional training that leaves them ill-prepared to compete with the sons and daughters of the national elite. He privatized health care making it into a totally regressive system, creating constant desperation for the nation’s majority who must either use the public system — slow, bureaucratic, and of poor quality — or pay for private care. He also privatized pensions, which regressively provides benefits according to the level of one’s lifetime income and personal savings, favoring the privileged.

Social trauma generated by the economic and political model

All of these privatizations have been creating a social trauma that one can breath in on each visit to Chile. It is a feeling of permanent institutional harassment by economic pressures and by the news media. The Chilean soul has been converted into an expression of permanent frustration.

Salaries are at pauper levels. A study by the Sol Foundation shows that 70% of Chileans earn less than $700 dollars per month, and 50% earn less than $500 dollars, little more than the minimum wage.^[3] The lives of middle class Chileans are plagued by chronic debt, with millions of people trying to attain a quality of life similar to that projected by the media of those living in higher income neighborhoods.

Chronic debt and generalized depression

Approximately half of the 9 million Chilean workers^[4] are in debt.^[5] A June 2017 study showed that 31% of those in debt have a financial burden greater than 40% of their income, and 22% of debtors have a financial burden greater than 50%. Also, 43% of debtors have monthly income less than 500,000 pesos, equivalent to a little less than $700 according to present exchange rates.^[6] It is simply impossible to make ends meet with peace of mind.

A 2014 international study places Chile in second place in Latin America for credit card debt per capita.^[7] Under these conditions, the possibility of saving or spending on leisure are very difficult.

This situation has repercussions for mental health in the country. Chile has one of the highest rates of depression in the world, afflicting more than 18% of the population. And this is a problem affecting mostly the poor in Chile. Mariane Krause, psychologist and director of the Instituto Milenio de Depresión y Personalidad, points out that high income sectors have an 8% rate of depression, while the poor reach a rate of 25%. This is to say, shockingly, that one of every four persons living in poverty suffers from depression in Chile.^[8]

The reasons for the social debacle of recent days leaves no room for doubt. The extraordinarily high rate of chronic stress may even be under-represented considering the limited access to mental health services in a privatized system.

Transportation: a sensitive topic

The topic of the cost of riding the metro as well as other public transportation is not merely symbolic or just a matter of an increase of a few cents by decree. One needs to study the details. To figure out the real cost, note that a worker spends on a daily basis between $3 and $6 dollars combined on public transportation, depending on the distance between home and work, and the number of trips taken, for work or other daily activities (picking up children from school, errands, emergencies, shopping, etc.). This is between $60 and $120 per month. About 50% of workers earn less than 500,000 pesos, a little less than $700 per month. If a father or mother are the only breadwinners, and there is a son or daughter that needs paid transportation, for example, to attend university or take care of some business or go out to eat some night . . . the picture emerges of constant financial pressure on millions of families.

Let’s compare this to a city like Washington, DC. A young worker with some experience can aspire to a salary of $4,000 per month. The metro in DC is expensive and in one day can cost about $10 for two trips or $200 per month. Yet that cost does not come to even 5% of monthly salary of the worker in Washington.

Chile: the same recipe as Ecuador and Argentina

This system of institutional violence is based on the impunity of the elite. As Professor Javier Ruiz Tagle of the Universidad Católica points out, the extent of sacking of public funds revealed by prosecutions of large Chilean corporations has exceeded $4 billion over the last few years.^[9] This includes tax evasion, price fixing, and illegal monopolies, all of which involve large business groups, including that of Piñera himself.

The social explosion under the government of Piñera is not isolated from the international context. In Ecuador, the government of Lenin Moreno has reversed the social policies of his progressive predecessor, Rafael Correa. Moreno, for example, decreed a tax amnesty for the bank system and other large corporations that have not paid taxes for decades. This loss in State revenue comes to more than $4 billion.^[10] Lenin Moreno transferred this debt of the private finance sector to the Ecuadorian people, along   with the elimination of gas subsidies. This blow to the population was felt immediately only a few days ago, especially among the indigenous peoples. More than 500 were wounded and several killed. This was a crude reminder of the instability suffered by Ecuador for decades and the cost of the structural adjustment package and conditions imposed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The approval rating of Lenin Moreno has fallen to as little as 20%, one of the worst on the continent.^[11]

A parallel  situation has occurred in Argentina. The fiscal and monetary policies of President Macri have dismantled almost entirely the subsidies and social programs of the former progressive government.^[12] Macri eliminated subsidies for public transportation, water, natural gas, and electric services, provoking a 500% rise in the cost of the latter.^[13] The looting and despair could not wait.^[14] Just this past month,  an enormous demonstration demanded measures that would stave off hunger among the population.^[15] The IMF is also behind these fiscal policies of  austerity in social spending, despite the fact that the banking system brought in $170 billion in profits in 2018, 120% more than the 2017 figure.^[16] What is the result of these social policies? The poverty rate in Argentina exceeds 30%,^[17] childhood poverty is at 50%, and one in six children experiences hunger.^[18]

Chile’s regressive tax system: economic violence

In Chile, the neoliberal economic model, has been perpetuated by all presidents (including the socialists Lagos and Bachelet) since the Pinochet dictatorship without any significant structural changes  The taxation feature of this model places excessive weight on citizens and a minimal burden on companies. More than 40% of the tax collection in Chile comes from VAT (sales tax for products and services).  The burden falls on citizens, not companies. This  regressive and unfair situation disproportionately affects the most vulnerable. People with higher incomes only represent 9% of tax revenue[19]. Companies in Chile also have great advantages when filing taxes that, in some cases, allow them to pay as little as 0%[20] . Companies in the mining sector, one of the most important sources of revenue for the country, have also greatly benefited. According to a study by economist Eduardo Titelman, between 2004 and 2009, the state stopped receiving more than $10 billion due to special dispensations offered to mining companies, privileges that few Chileans have[21] .

Everything leads to inequality. According to a 2019 ECLAC report, the richest 1% of Chile hold 26% of the nation’s wealth[22] . And Chile ranks seventh among the most unequal countries on the planet, as reported by the World Bank in 2018[23] .

More than 40% of the tax collection in Chile comes from VAT (sales tax for products and services).  The burden falls on citizens, not companies. This  regressive and unfair situation disproportionately affects the most vulnerable. People with higher incomes only represent 9% of tax revenue

The economic model then, is based on a regressive tax policy that exacerbates inequality. The system is so rooted in the Chilean socio-political culture, that there are no institutional mechanisms in place to transform this model of economic violence into one that is more equitable and fair. The electoral route, in that sense, has been totally incapable of bringing about a change that benefits the whole country. Street mobilization and violence appears, then, as the only way out, the cry of despair in the face of the chronic stress of daily life. And as we have seen, other governments in the region, also faced with the lack of substantive tools to respond to these crises, are also resorting to extraordinary measures such as, in the case of Piñera, using curfews, military troops, the state of emergency or the anti-terrorism law.

A fury fueled by 30 years and the recipe for change

As in the cases of Argentina and Ecuador, both governed by right-wing presidents, Piñera impacted a basic service of critical importance ​​to the population, by increasing the price of the Metro ticket and the public transportation system of Transantiago. Although the increase was only a few cents, it precipitated the people’s fury against “30 years of state violence”, as the popular slogans on the streets say. Piñera and the powerful financial sector he represents are incapable of providing a solution to the Chilean problem. Chileans gain nothing by appealing to Piñera for a lasting solution; it would be tantamount to shooting themselves in the foot.

The recipe is clear: the corporate groups ( Angelini’s, Luksic’s, Piñera’s and a long etcetera), must voluntarily cede part of their factual power and allow a real tax reform that floods the state coffers.

The privatization of the health system must be reversed immediately, and a universal insurance system must be created that covers all the needs of the population. That is, health care is a human right. It is not necessary to reinvent the wheel: it prevails in Canada, Europe, and even in embargoed Cuba.

The pension system must also be universal, although mixed variants should be allowed that provide the option of private pension accounts for those who can collect more as a fair reward for their previous income. But the state must guarantee a fair and substantial fund for every retiree in the country. All proceeds from the investment operations of these public funds must be returned to each citizen.

And the salary structure must be urgently reformed. The objective is to create income and consumption conditions that foster a strong domestic market, unlike the one now based on chronic indebtedness. The structure of consumption in Chile is based on the permanent debt of the middle and working classes, which is not only unsustainable but  keeps the domestic market permanently depressed. The current equation exhausts the population by a constant sense of job insecurity, harming productivity, professional morale, and the quality of life of families. If large business groups want more commerce, more dynamism, more production, it is incomprehensible why they opt for the economic repression of millions of potential consumers. Simply put, there is conformity with the current profit levels, and even greater conformity with the submissive passivity suffered by millions of workers in the country.

Economic freedom, only for the elite

The most important challenge is to produce a new mindset of the Chilean business elite. By supporting and financing the political and economic values ​​of the Pinochet dictatorship, the holders of big Chilean capital opted for repressive and often lethal social control by the State, while pretending to advance the values of individual development and “freedom” championed by free market economists Milton Friedman and his followers. Non-intervention of the State in the economy is a myth. In reality, the State intervenes strongly to guarantee a permanent position of economic privilege  of a specific sector of the population. The way in which this logic has been developed for more than four decades leaves no doubt. There is no interest in developing the productive potential of the Chilean people. There is a huge distrust in the population that is perceived by the ruling elites as a mass that must be controlled and rendered docile.

By supporting and financing the political and economic values ​​of the Pinochet dictatorship, the holders of big Chilean capital opted for repressive and often lethal social control by the State, while pretending to advance the values of individual development and “freedom” championed by free market economists Milton Friedman and his followers.

Chile’s low quality and expensive private health system keeps them sick and indebted with the private hospital system. The educational system frustrates the vast majority of young people and keeps them under-employed and under-educated. They are locked in a stagnant and insufficient salary structure, which prevents the accumulation of capital and savings, and truncates the possibility of sufficiently financing leisure, spiritual and creative activities. The electoral system does not provide an avenue for profound structural changes.  It does not matter if the governments are nominally socialist, social democratic or right-wing; oligarchic rights are maintained at the expense of civil society. The law and constitutional coercive measures are used to crush the expression of social protest, leaving the door open to the raw expression of violence.

The Chilean explosion this weekend is not a new phenomenon. It has always been present, latent, sometimes submerged, but ready to overflow the streets. The international community generally misconstrues Chilean reality, convinced by the mirage created by macroeconomic figures. Thus Santiago suffers, destroyed and rebuilt several times a year, in a cadence of rage that has already become a painful litany. The Chilean people, hardworking and persevering in a land full of natural calamities, political calamities and social calamities, got tired this October of 2019, of turning the other cheek.

Patricio Zamorano is a singer-songwriter, journalist and academic in political science. He is also Co-Director of COHA.

Translation by Fred Mills. Editing assistance by Roger Harris

[VISIT the Photo-Report of COHA prepared by four young Chilean photographers to document the social unrest in Chile]

End notes

^[1] INDH anuncia querellas por cinco personas fallecidas en Estado de Emergencia. https://www.indh.cl/indh-anuncia-querellas-por-cinco-personas-fallecidas-en-estado-de-emergencia/

^[2] Presidente Piñera: Estamos en guerra contra un enemigo poderoso. https://www.telesurtv.net/news/pdte-pinera-estamos-guerra-contra-enemigo-poderoso-20191020-0047.html

^[3] “Los verdades sueldos de Chile”. http://www.fundacionsol.cl/estudios/sueldos-chile-2018/

^[4] Banco Mundial. https://datos.bancomundial.org/indicator/SL.TLF.TOTL.IN

^[5] SBIF realiza radiografía del endeudamiento en Chile https://www.sbif.cl/sbifweb/servlet/Noticia?indice=2.1&idContenido=11889

^[6] SBIF realiza radiografía del endeudamiento en Chile https://www.sbif.cl/sbifweb/servlet/Noticia?indice=2.1&idContenido=11889

^[7] Chilenos tienen la segunda mayor deuda en tarjetas de Latinoamérica. http://www.economiaynegocios.cl/noticias/noticias.asp?id=124482

^[8] MARIANE KRAUSE: “Chile requiere un cambio sociocultural para superar la depresión” https://www.conicyt.cl/blog/2019/02/01/mariane-krause-chile-requiere-un-cambio-sociocultural-para-superar-la-depresion/

^[9] La cifra de la indignación: Académico calcula en más de cuatro mil millones de dólares las pérdidas que sufrió el Estado en beneficio de unos pocos. https://www.eldesconcierto.cl/2019/10/20/la-cifra-de-la-indignacion-academico-calcula-en-mas-de-cuatro-mil-millones-de-dolares-las-perdidas-que-sufrio-el-estado-en-beneficio-de-unos-pocos/

^[10] Ecuador: gobierno de Lenin Moreno sacrifica a los sectores empobrecidos para satisfacer al FMI. http://www.coha.org/ecuador-gobierno-de-lenin-moreno-sacrifica-a-los-sectores-empobrecidos-para-satisfacer-al-fmi/

^[11] Consultora Mitofsky. https://radioequinoccio.com/inicio/item/9179-presidente-lenin-moreno-con-pesima-aprobacionsegun-consultora-mexicana.html

^[12] Macri persiste en su política de eliminar subsidios a los servicios. https://www.elciudadano.com/latino-america/argentina/macri-mantiene-su-politica-de-eliminar-subsidios-a-los-servicios/05/31/

^[13] Gobierno de Macri elimina subsidios a electricidad, se esperan alzas de hasta 500% https://www.eltelegrafo.com.ec/noticias/mundo/8/argentina-aumentodeprecios-luz-tarifazo-macri

^[14]Crisis económica en Argentina: Intento de saqueo terminó con un niño de 13 años muerto por herida de bala. https://www.eldesconcierto.cl/2018/09/04/crisis-economica-en-argentina-intento-de-saqueo-termino-con-un-nino-de-13-anos-muerto-por-herida-de-bala/

^[15] Argentina y una semana marcada por protestas que exigen la emergencia alimentaria https://www.france24.com/es/20190911-argentina-protestas-emergencia-alimentaria-crisis

^[16] El sector financier sigue siendo el gran ganador de la era Macri. https://www.infobaires24.com.ar/el-sector-financiero-sigue-siendo-el-gran-ganador-de-la-era-macri/

^[17] Argentina se hunde en la pobreza mientras el dólar se dispara. http://www.rfi.fr/es/americas/20190429-argentina-se-hunde-en-la-pobreza-el-fmi-aplaude

^[18] Más de la mitad de los niños argentinos son pobres. https://elpais.com/internacional/2019/06/07/actualidad/1559927136_602178.html

[19] Chile recauda cuatro veces más impuestos por el IVA que por lo que pagan los más ricos. https://www.publimetro.cl/cl/noticias/2017/11/24/chile-recauda-cuatro-veces-mas-impuestos-iva-lo-pagan-los-mas-ricos.html

[20] Cómo y por qué el gobierno permitirá a las empresas no pagar impuesto corporativo. https://ciperchile.cl/2019/07/18/como-y-por-que-el-gobierno-permitira-a-las-empresas-no-pagar-impuesto-corporativo/

[21] Los enormes beneficios tributarios a los que acceden las empresas mineras en Chile. https://ciperchile.cl/2011/07/19/los-enormes-beneficios-tributarios-a-los-que-acceden-las-empresas-mineras-en-chile/

[22] Cepal describe a Chile como un país desigual: Un 1% concentra el 26,5% de la riqueza https://www.cnnchile.com/pais/cepal-describe-a-chile-como-un-pais-desigual-un-1-concentra-el-265-de-la-riqueza_20190116/

[23 ] Aparece Chile: estos son los 10 países más desiguales del mundo. https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/nacional/chile/2018/07/04/aparece-chile-estos-son-los-10-paises-mas-desiguales-del-mundo.shtml

Foto-Reportaje | La furia de Chile tras el lente

Four young Chilean photographers lived the days of violence directly, documenting dramatic moments of social outbreak that still persist: a curfew, state of emergency, and the military on the streets in public security functions for the first time since the end of the dictatorship. More than a dozen dead, hundreds arrested and injured. COHA prepared a critical analysis on the meaning of the social crisis that Chile suffered this week of October, and also shares the photographic work of Luciano Candia, Loyka Manuelle, Luiseduardo Quijada and María Catalina Godoy.

Cuatro fotógrafos jóvenes chilenos vivieron la jornada de violencia directamente, documentando días de estallido social que aún persisten. Toque de queda, decreto de estado de emergencia, los militares en las calles por primera vez en funciones de seguridad pública desde el fin de la dictadura. Más de una decena de muertos, cientos de arrestados y heridos. COHA preparó un ensayo de análisis sobre el significado de la crisis social que sufrió Chile esta semana de octubre, y a continuación comparte el trabajo fotográfico de Luciano Candia, Loyka Manuelle, Luiseduardo Quijada y María Catalina Godoy.

[All images protected by copyright of their authors. Reproduction is not allowed without the author’s consent]

[Todas las imágenes protegidas por el derecho de autor de cada fotógrafo. Prohibido su uso sin autorización expresa del autor]

Luciano Candia. Instagram | @lcn_fotos

Loyka Manuelle. Instagram | @a.loyka

Luiseduardo Quijada | Instagram: @gualloo

Catalina Godoy | Instagram: @_artshoot