INTERACTIVE WEBCAST: Join the LIVE recording of Paul G. Buchanan and Selwyn Manning’s podcast A View from Afar at midday Thursday (New Zealand time) and Wednesday 8pm (US EDT).

In this the second episode of A View from Afar podcast for 2023, political scientist Dr Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning will analyse the question:

• How stable is Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin’s regime?

We will look at this question from a number of angles, and, we will reveal shifts within the regime’s control and structure that may surprise many in the West.

In this episode Paul will deep dive into the dynamics between the mercenary Wagner Group’s commander Yevgeny Prigozhin, his relationship with Putin, the Kremlin, and the estrangement from Russia’s military generals and Putin appointees.

We will consider: What is going on here? What is Prigozhin’s end-game? Does he have the support of Putin? Or is that support conditional on successes on the Ukraine conflict frontline?

And Selwyn will dig into the pillars of power in the Russian Federation, in particular:

• Putin as the head of Russia’s personalised autocracy
• The Putin-era Oligarchs
• Russia’s State military
• And the rise of Private armies and militia.

Then Paul will take us, contextually and comparatively, through all of this complexity so we can more accurately assess the big question: How stable is Putin’s regime?

INTERACTION WHILE LIVE: Paul and Selwyn invite and encourage you to interact while they are live with questions and comments.

They recommend you do so via EveningReport’s YouTube channel, as Facebook is undergoing significant changes. Here’s the link: Youtube (remember to subscribe to the channel).

You can also keep the conversation going on this debate by clicking on one of the social media channels below:

• Facebook.com/selwyn.manning
• Youtube
• Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning

If you miss the LIVE Episode, you can see it as video-on-demand, and earlier episodes too, by checking out EveningReport.nz or, subscribe to the Evening Report podcast here.

RECOGNITION:

The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top  Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication.

Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category. You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

Two Pacific nations considered by Washington as crucial in its competition with China for influence in the region have agreed to 20-year extensions of funding arrangements as part of security and defence treaties.

The Federated States of Micronesia signed off on a nearly-final Compact of Free Association on Monday with US Presidential Envoy Joseph Yun, followed by Palau on Wednesday.

Both documents are expected to be formally signed later this month, ending two years of negotiations.

However, the Marshall Islands, the third North Pacific nation with a Compact, is unlikely to sign primarily because of outstanding issues surrounding the US nuclear testing legacy in the country.

The FSM will reportedly receive US$3.3 billion and Palau US$760 million over the 20-year life of the new funding agreements, according to US officials.

Yun was due to visit the Marshall Islands capital Majuro this week to discuss the situation further.

But the situation in the Marshall Islands appeared murkier than ever.

“The RMI (Republic of the Marshall Islands) looks forward to reaching an agreement soon with the US,” Marshall Islands Chief Negotiator and Foreign Minister Kitlang Kabua said on Wednesday.

Doubtful over new Compact
It is unclear at this stage when the two governments will reach agreement on a new 20-year deal, despite Kabua and Yun having initialled a memorandum of understanding in January that spelled out the amounts of funding to be provided to RMI over 20 years.

That would bring in US$1.5 billion and an additional US$700 million related to the nuclear weapons test legacy.

Yun acknowledged the situation with the Marshall Islands telling Reuters it was “doubtful” that the US and Marshall Islands would sign off on the Compact before he departs from Majuro this weekend.

At least one member of the Marshall Islands Compact Negotiation Committee said he was in the dark as to next steps.

“I really have no idea what is the game plan here,” he said.

In a widely-circulated email on the eve of Yun’s visit, Arno Nitijela (parliament) member Mike Halferty said there had been no involvement of the atoll of Arno and the majority of islands in the nation in developing the Compact.

“There is no report on the Compact negotiations for us to understand the situation,” he said. He objected to the exclusion of Arno and other islands from participation, saying the people of Arno are Marshallese like the people involved in the talks with the US.

‘Let people decide own fate’
“If we are truly a democracy, we should have had (a vote on Compact Two) and should now let the people vote to decide their own fate,” he said.

Reuters cited an unnamed “senior US official” who said the discussion between the US and RMI “is no longer about the amount of money but … about how the money will be structured and how it will be spent and what issues it will cover.”

Kitlang Kabua’s comments to the Marshall Islands Journal tended to confirm this analysis: “The RMI has matters tabled in the negotiations that are unique to our bilateral relationship with the US.

“These matters include the nuclear legacy, the communities affected by the US military operations and presence in-country, and the existential threat of climate change,” she said.

“We are also keen on strengthening processes to facilitate the RMI working jointly with the US, without jeopardising accountability and transparency, to utilise resources for areas of priorities as deemed by the RMI government’s strategic plan and other planning documents for the future.”

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister James Marape is still confident of delivering the PNG-US Defence Cooperation Agreement despite the cancellation of US President Joe Biden’s visit, and the leaking of a draft copy of the confidential document on Tuesday.

He said PNG’s national interest was at the heart of the agreement, which was still expected to be signed on Monday in Port Moresby between himself and the US government leader or official who would step in for Biden.

Marape said yesterday the agreement that was leaked on Tuesday was still in draft format, and he would announce the finer details today following a cabinet meeting yesterday

By yesterday afternoon, the White House was still yet to confirm who would step in for Biden to visit Papua New Guinea.

Copies of the leaked agreement were circulated to PNG and regional media on Tuesday, with Radio New Zealand carrying it on its website the same afternoon.

Marape said the agreement would greatly boost PNG’s defence capabilities and provide key infrastructure in strategic air and sea ports.

“There is a lot of misinformation in the news release. I will announce to the country the upsides of these agreements on Thursday [today],” Marape said told the Post-Courier.

Still in draft form
“The agreement was still in draft form and we will discuss it fully at our cabinet meeting later today [Wednesday].

“I want to inform all that PNG’s national interest is the reason why we [are] elevating our traditional military relationship with USA to a higher and better level, including addressing the needs of our military, to upgrade and sea and airspace border protection.”

Speaking to the Post-Courier separately on Tuesday, and without making any particular reference to the US-PNG Defence Cooperation Agreement, Chief of the PNG Defence Force Major-General Mark Goina said budget support to the military over the years had been unsatisfactory.

“Such agreements with our bilateral partners are crucial in helping plug the gaps,” he said.

“We have devised plans where we have a budget put in place, in accordance to our needs, and based on that, we have identified where the gaps are, and that is where our partners are brought in, partners like Australia, New Zealand, US, China, India, UK and other partners we have relationships with.

“So they come and cover those gaps for us,” General Goina said.

“That’s how we have been addressing our budget shortfalls.

“And this will continue until such time, when we are able to meet our own needs satisfactorily.”

Pact yet to be finaiised
The 14-page agreement, a copy of which was also seen by the Post-Courier, will be finalised by the end of this week for signing on Monday in Port Moresby.

When signed, the agreement will work in line with all previous defence agreements between the two countries.

The draft agreement, titled “Agreement on Defence Cooperation Between the Government of the United States of America And the government of the Independent State of Papua New Guinea’, contains a total of 22 specific sections or articles, which deal with a broad range of issues.

The articles range from issues such as:

• the status of US personnel who will pass through or be based in PNG military facilities;
• access to and use of agreed facilities and areas covered in the agreement;
• pre-positioning and storage of equipment, supplies and materials;
• property ownership, security; entry and exit;
• movement of aircraft, vehicles and vessels; importation, exportation and taxes;
• driving and professional licenses;
• contracting;
• logistics support; medical and mortuary affairs, postal and recreational facilities and communications services; and
• utilities and communications; and o

Strategic specifics
The specific areas and facilities covered under the agreement include the strategically-valuable Nadzab airport and Lae wharf, the Lombrum naval base and Momote airport in Manus, and the Port Moresby seaport and Jackson’s International Airport.

Access to these strategic areas and facilities are covered in article five of the agreement, which states, in part, that: “The parties shall cooperate to facilitate the required approvals to enable unimpeded access to and use of the agreed facilities and areas to US Forces and US contractors as mutually agreed.”

“Such agreed facilities and areas may be used for mutually agreed activities including visits, training, exercises, manoeuvres, transit, support and related activities, refueling of aircraft . .” and others.

There were fears that the agreement would undermine PNG’s sovereignty, even though many similar agreements exist between the US and its allies around the world and the Indo-Pacific region — countries which still enjoy their freedoms and sovereignty.

Lawrence Fong and Gorethy Kenneth are PNG Post-Courier reporters. Republished with permission.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz