The New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) is not considering recruiting personnel from across the Pacific as talk continues of Australia doing so for its Defence Force (ADF).

In response to a question from The Australian at the National Press Club in Canberra about Australia’s plans to potentially recruit from the Pacific Islands into the ADF, Fiji Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka said he “would like to see it happen”.

“Whether Australia does it or not depends on your own policies. We will not push it.”

RNZ Pacific asked the NZDF under the Official Information Act (OIA) for all correspondence sent and received regarding any discussion on recruiting from the Pacific, along with other related questions.

The OIA request was declined as the information did not exist.

“Defence Recruiting has not and is not considering deliberate recruiting action from across the Pacific,” the response from the NZDF said.

Australia Defence Association executive director Neil James said citizenship needed to be a prerequisite to Pacific recruitment.

Australian citizen
“Even a New Zealander serving in the Australian military has to become an Australian citizen,” James said.

“They can start off being an Australian resident, but they’ve got to be on the path to citizenship.

”They’ve got to be capable of getting permanent residency in Australia and citizenship.

“And then you’ve got to tackle the moral problem — it’s pretty hard to ask foreigners to fight for your country when your own people won’t do it.”

James said he thought people might be “jumping at hairs” at Rabuka’s comments.

Unlike Samoa’s acting prime minister, who has voiced concern over a brain drain, both Papua New Guinea and Fiji have made it clear they have people to spare.

Ross Thompson, a managing director at People In, the largest approved employer in the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility Scheme, said if the recruitment drive does go ahead, PNG nationals would return home with a wider skill set.

‘Brain gain, not drain’
“This would be a brain gain, rather than be a drain on PNG.”

He’s spoken with people in PNG who welcome the proposal.

”PNG, its population is over 10 million . . . We’re proposing from PNG around 1000 could be recruited every year.”

Minister Rabuka joked Fiji could plug Australia’s personnel hole on its own.

“If it’s open [to recruiting Fijians] . . . [we will offer] the whole lot . . . 5000,” he said, while noting that Fiji was able to easily fill its quota under the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme.

“The villages are emptying out into the cities. What we would like to do is to reduce those who are ending up in settlements in the cities and not working, giving way to crime and becoming first victims to the sale of drugs and AIDS and HIV from frequently used or commonly used needles.”

Thompson was also a captain in the Queen’s Gurkha Engineers of the British Army and said he was proud to have served alongside Fijians.

Honour serving
“I had the honour to serve with a number of Fijians while deployed overseas; they’re fantastic soldiers.

“This is something that’s been going on since the Second World War and it’s a big part of the British Army.”

From a recruitment perspective, he said PNG and Fiji would be a good starting point before extending to any other Pacific nations.

”PNG has a strong history with the Australian Defence Force. There’s a number of programmes that are currently ongoing, on shared military exercises, there’s PNG officers that are serving in the ADF now, or on secondment to the ADF.

“So I think those two countries are definitely good to look up from a pilot perspective.”

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

In this episode of A View from Afar political scientist and former Pentagon Analyst, Paul G. Buchanan and journalist Selwyn Manning will discuss, debate, and assess whether deterrence is still a valid concept in international relations.

Paul and Selwyn will assess whether deterrence has failed in Syria, Ukraine, the Middle East, and failed to stop an intensification of threat in the South China Sea.

And they will consider the questions:

Is nuclear deterrence dead in the water?

But, overnight, the New York Times released details of a secret new nuclear deterrence plan that has been advanced in secret by the Biden Administration. Biden’s Nuke Plan is designed to ensure the USA stays ahead of an arms race, and a supposed coordination of nuclear weapons technologies being developed by China, North Korea and Russia.

New questions arise.

Does a new-generation arms race, led by the United States, based on advanced nuclear weaponry, made more fearsome due to a rapid advance of artificial intelligence-assisted decision-making and target-selection, mixed with hybrid warfare, cause aggressive nations to rethink the consequences should they preemptively initiate conflict?

• And what about the majority of the world, what about small states, small powers, that seek stability and security via multilateralism or a constellation of like-minded nations – how does deterrence impact on their decision-making?
• Do alliances, led by global powers, that rely on deterring adversaries through development of superior weaponry and technology, offer small states more risks than benefits?
• Specifically, is it preferable for many small states to focus on de-escalation and cooperative security rather than bind themselves to collective security agreements that are focused on deterring adversaries?
• And, the big question: How do we as member states in a world where bipolarity and conflict is intensifying, ensure de-escalation occurs without reaching a tipping-point that we cannot return from?
• Is cooperative security, and mutually agreed to weapons and technological controls, the way toward restoring an uneasy peace in the world?

Live Audience: Remember, if you are joining us live via the social media platforms, feel free to comment as we can include your comments and questions in this programme.

INTERACTION WHILE LIVE:

Paul and Selwyn encourage their live audience to interact while they are live with questions and comments.

To interact during the live recording of this podcast, go to Youtube.com/c/EveningReport/

Remember to subscribe to the channel.

For the on-demand audience, you can also keep the conversation going on this debate by clicking on one of the social media channels below:

• Youtube.com/c/EveningReport/
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RECOGNITION: The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication. Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category.

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New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters says “calm wise heads” are needed to sort out the crisis in New Caledonia.

A security force of more than 3000 personnel — more than half of them flown in from France — have returned to the capital Nouméa of the French territory to restore a sense of normalcy.

It comes after weeks of deadly unrest during which seven people were shot and killed, and others causing more than 200 million euros (NZ$353m) in damage.

But protests continue in the outskirts of Nouméa against the French government’s move to change New Caledonia’s electoral laws which pro-independent indigenous groups fear will dilute their political power.

Pacific Islands Forum chair Mark Brown wrote to the New Caledonia president to offer support, while Vanuatu’s climate minister Ralph Regenvanu blamed France for the crisis.

Speaking earlier this week as the final evacuation flight for New Zealand citizens and other nationals was about to depart from Nouméa, Peters would not be drawn on New Zealand’s position on Kanak aspirations for decolonisation.

“We think it’s wise for us to join with the Pacific Islands Forum, and have a statement we all agree to, rather than [New Zealand] … speaking out of turn,” Winston Peters said.

Long-term future
Peters said this was especially prudent given the views some members of the forum had been expressing in regard to New Caledonia’s long-term future.

“It’s not being reluctant to say something. But when you’re dealing with a major crisis of law and order and the destruction of property and businesses which will cost hundreds of millions of dollars to fix up, we need to keep our mind on that,” he said.

“And then, when we’ve got that under control, look at the long-term pathway forward to a peaceful solution. In the end, you would expect there to be agreed self-determination.”

From May 21-28, seven New Zealand flights helped to evacuate 225 New Zealanders and 145 foreign nationals from New Caledonia.

Peters paid tribute to the hardworking teams behind the joint NZ Defence Force and Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) operation which made the assistance possible.

Commercial flights into and out of New Caledonia remain closed until Sunday, June 2, and a nightly curfew is still in effect.

On Wednesday, New Caledonia’s public prosecutor confirmed three Nouméa municipal police officers were facing criminal charges after they were found to have engaged in acts of severe violence against a Kanak man they had just arrested.

The municipal police officers are not part or the French security forces that have been sent to restore law and order in New Caledonia, RNZ Pacific understands.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

A NZ Defence Force plane carrying 50 New Zealanders evacuated from New Caledonia landed at Auckland International Airport last night.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade said it would be working with France and Australia to ensure the safe departure of several evacuation flights amid civil unrest in the island state.

The efforts came as RNZ Pacific’s French Pacific correspondent Patrick Decloitre reported that President Emmanuel Macron would be flying to New Caledonia within hours to install a “dialogue mission” in the French Pacific dependency in the wake of violent riots for the past eight days.

The first flight took off from the capital of Nouméa after a short turnaround at Magenta local airport at 7pm, and landed in Auckland at about 10pm.

Those arriving to Auckland Airport on the NZ Defence Force plane said they were relieved to be back.

Many reunited with loved ones, while others were sent onto hospital for urgent medical treatment.

Chris and Mike Riley were arriving back from New Caledonia from what was meant to be a week-long trip.

‘Fireworks and gunfire’
Chris Riley said they heard lots of explosions, fireworks and gunfire from where they were.

“We were in a lovely place actually, it was quite peaceful, but we were trapped because we couldn’t get through because of all the troubles that were there,” she said.

Mike Riley said they were both relieved to be home.

“We’re not in a hurry to go anywhere apart from Kerikeri,” he said.

Carl, who did not provide a last name, was in a tourist area of New Caledonia for the past two weeks, which he said was sheltered from the riots.

He said it felt great to get on the Defence Force flight.

“It was a bit of a different type of trip back to New Zealand, but it was fun.”

La Tontouta still closed
Noumea’s La Tontouta International Airport remains closed.

Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters said the New Zealanders on the flight would have had a security escort to the airport.

Pacific Island nations were among those which had sought New Zealand’s help to evacuate citizens, he said.

Peters said there would be more flights over the next few days to get all 250 New Zealanders out of the French Pacific territory, which has been in the grip of riots and political unrest between anti- and pro-independence groups.

He hoped another flight would leave for New Caledonia this morning.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters today confirmed it was the first in a series of proposed flights.

Peters said the flight would carry around 50 passengers with the most pressing needs from Nouméa to Auckland.

Passengers for subsequent flights will be prioritised by consular staff.

“New Zealanders in New Caledonia have faced a challenging few days — and bringing them home has been an urgent priority for the government,” Peters said.

“We want to acknowledge the support of relevant authorities, both in Paris and Nouméa, in facilitating this flight.”

Peters said the situation in New Caledonia was “dynamic” and New Zealand officials were working with French counterparts and other partners, like Australia, to learn what was needed to ensure safety of their people there.

“In cooperation with France and Australia, we are working on subsequent flights in coming days.”

Update SafeTravel details
Peters said New Zealanders in New Caledonia were urged to make sure their details on SafeTravel were up to date.

This would allow officials to be in touch with further advice.

Meanwhile, a New Zealander desperate to return home said it was heartening to know that a flight was on its way.

Barbara Graham, who was due to fly home from a research trip in New Caledonia on Monday, had been on holiday there with her husband and six-year-old son last month.

She said she was desperate to get home to them, but knew others were in greater need.

“It’s really really heartening to hear that the flights have started and I’m extremely pleased they’re prioritising the people that really really need to get home, you know parents and children.

“I can’t imagine what it would’ve been like if my son had still been here in this situation.”

A nearby bakery was selling rationed bread to residents and visitors, Graham said.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

After a relatively well organised and peaceful day of voting in Solomon Islands yesterday, the electoral commission is working with donor partners to safely transport ballot boxes from polling stations all over the country to centrally located counting venues.

It is a massive exercise with more than 200 New Zealand Defence Force personnel providing logistical support across the 29,000 sq km sprawling island chain to ensure that those who want to vote have an opportunity to do so.

Chief Electoral Officer Jasper Anisi said there were some preliminary processes to be completed once all ballot boxes were accounted for but he expected counting to begin today.

“Mostly it will be verification of ballot boxes and ballot papers from the polling stations. But once verification is done then counting will automatically start,” Anisi said.

The big issues
So what were the big election issues for Solomon Islanders at the polls yesterday?

A lack of government services, poor infrastructure development and the establishment of diplomatic ties with China are some of the things voters in the capital Honiara told RNZ Pacific they cared about.

Timothy Vai said he was unhappy with the former government’s decision to cut ties with Taiwan in 2019 so it could establish ties with China.

“I want to see a change. My aim in voting now is for a new government. Because we are a democratic country but we shifted [diplomatic ties] to a communist country,” Vai said.

Another voter, Minnie Kasi, wanted leaders to do more for herself and her community.

“My voting experience was good. I came to vote for the right person,” she said.

“Over the past four years I did not see anything delivered by the person I voted for last time which is why I am voting for the person I voted for today.”

Lack of government services
While Ethel Manera felt there was a lack of development and basic government services in her constitutency.

“Some infrastructure and sanitation [projects] they have not developed and they are still yet to develop and that is what I see should be developed in our country,” Manera said.

This is the first time the country has conducted simultaneous voting for national and provincial election candidates.

Anisi has said they would start by tallying the provincial results.

“The provincial results we count in wards,” he said.

“So wards have smaller numbers compared to the constituencies so you need to count all the wards in order to get the constituency number.”

Some visiting political experts and local commentators in Honiara think delaying the announcement of the national election results might pose a security risk if it takes too long and voters grow impatient.

But others say it is a good strategy because historically supporters of national candidates who win hold noisy public celebrations and if this is done first it could disrupt the counting of provincial results.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

About 500 protesters marched through the heart of Auckland’s tourist suburb of Devonport today to the Royal New Zealand Navy base, accusing the government of backing genocide in the Middle East.

Demanding a “ceasefire now” in Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza that has killed almost 27,000 Palestinians — mostly women and children — so far, the protesters called on the New Zealand government to scrap its support for the US-led Red Sea maritime security operation against Yemen’s Houthis.

Speakers contrasted New Zealand’s “proud independent foreign policy” and nuclear-free years under former Labour prime ministers Norman Kirk and David Lange with the “gutless” approach of current Prime Minister Christopher Luxon.

Among many placards condemning the New Zealand government’s stance, one read: “We need a leader not a follower — grow some balls Luxon”. Others declared “It is shameful for NZ troops to aid genocide”, “Hands off Yemen” and “Blood on your hands”.

Led by the foreign affairs activist group Te Kūaka NZA and Palestinian Youth Aotearoa, the march was organised in reaction to Luxon’s announcement last week that New Zealand would deploy six NZ Defence Force officers to the Middle East in support of the US-led attacks on Yemen.

“We are appalled our government is dragging New Zealand into a new war in the Middle East instead of supporting diplomatic efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza,” Te Kūaka spokesperson Dr Arama Rata said.

‘Unpopular, dangerous move’
“This is an unpopular, undemocratic, and dangerous move, taken without a parliamentary mandate, or authorisation from the United Nations Security Council, which could further inflame regional tensions.”

Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa (PSNA) secretary Neil Scott branded the New Zealand stance as preferring “trade over humanity!”

He said that in South Africa’s case before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) the ruling indicated “plausible genocide” by Israel in its war on Gaza and that state was now on trial with an order to comply with six emergency measures and report back to The Hague within one month.

“This is something that has been obvious to all of us for months based on Israel’s actions on the ground in Gaza and Israeli politicians’ stated intent,” Scott said.

“Yet [our] government refuses to call for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire. It refuses to take any action to oppose that genocide.”

Referring to the Houthis (as Ansarallah are known in the West) and their blockade of the Red Sea, Scott said: “Ships and containers heading to Israel — no other ships to be impacted.

“They [Houthis] state that they are carrying out an obligation to oppose genocide under Article 1 of the Genocide Convention. They will end their blockade when Israel ends the genocide.

‘Oppose Israeli genocide’
“This is something every country in the world is meant to do. Oppose Israeli genocide — that includes Aotearoa.

“So what does Prime Minister Luxon, Minister of Foreign Affairs [Winston] Peters and Minister of Defence [Judith] Collins do? They decide to send our sailors to the Red Sea to defend ships — getting our Navy to be complicit in defending Israeli genocide.”

His comments were greeted with loud cries of “Shame”.

Scott declared that the protesters were calling on the government to “acknowledge New Zealand’s obligations” under Article 1 of the Genocide Convention; expel the Israeli ambassador until the genocide ends, and to “immediately rescind the order to send our sailors” to join the US forces “defending Israeli genocide”.

The protesters also called on New Zealand’s Defence Force chief Air Marshal Kevin Short and Navy chief Rear Admiral David Proctor to stand by the legal obligations of the Genocide Convention to oppose Israeli genocide.

Pointing to the HMNZS Philomel base as Navy officers and a police guard looked on, Green Party MP Steve Abel referenced New Zealand’s “proud episode 50 years ago” when the late Prime Minister Norman Kirk dispatched the frigate HMNZS Otago (and later the Canterbury) to Moruroa atoll in 1973 to protest against French nuclear tests.

He also highlighted Prime Minister David Lange’s championing of nuclear-free New Zealand and the nuclear-free Pacific Rarotonga Treaty “a decade later” in the 1980s.

Abel called for a return to the “courageous” independent foreign policies that New Zealanders had fought for in the past.

Today’s Devonport naval base protest followed a series of demonstrations and a social gathering in Cornwall Park over the holiday weekend in the wake of the “first step” success against impunity by South Africa’s legal team at The Hague last Friday. Other solidarity protests have taken place at some 17 locations across New Zealand.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has New Zealand firmly in its sights.

Last week, New Zealand’s foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta attended the annual NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels – alongside her counterparts from Australia, Japan and South Korea.

Mahuta’s participation came after New Zealand’s then Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern joined last June’s NATO leaders’ summit in Madrid. Mahuta was also a guest at the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in April 2022, albeit only in virtual form.

At a more granular level, a NATO military delegation visited New Zealand last month for meetings with officials in Wellington. The head of the delegation said NATO was ‘determined’ to ‘deepen and strengthen our cooperation with our Indo-Pacific partners’.

And this week, top NATO official Benedetta Berti is visiting Wellington. As part of her visit, Berti – who heads NATO’s Policy Planning Unit in the Secretary General’s office – will speak to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs (NZIIA) on the impact of the war in Ukraine on the Indo-Pacific. Berti will also explain why NATO is seeking to expand its ties with countries in the region such as New Zealand, according to advance NZIIA publicity material for the event.

The grouping of four Indo-Pacific countries is sometimes referred to as the AP4, or ‘Asia Pacific Four’, particularly by the more hawkish Australia and Japan.

So far, New Zealand has tended to avoid using the AP4 acronym, perhaps to play down the implication that Wellington has joined yet another new bloc.

The website of New Zealand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) contains only a single mention of the AP4 – after Mahuta’s attendance at the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting last year. There is no mention of AP4 at all on the Ministry of Defence or Beehive ministerial websites, according to a Google search.

NATO itself has also generally shied away from using the AP4 acronym, perhaps in deference to New Zealand’s sensibilities. But this might be starting to change. Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO Secretary General, talked openly about the potential of the AP4 at a speech at Tokyo’s Keio University in February.

In that address, Stoltenberg told his audience that NATO had ‘in many ways…already institutionalised’ the AP4 and described the four countries’ participation at the NATO leaders’ summit in Spain in 2022 as a ‘historic moment’.

We can expect to hear much more about the AP4 in the future.

Stoltenberg has publicly invited all four AP4 leaders to attend this year’s leaders’ summit in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius.

In diplomatic terms, this probably means New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and the other three AP4 leaders have already decided to go.

This is significant.

For one thing, it means Jacinda Ardern’s presence at last year’s NATO summit in Madrid was not just a one-off move to show solidarity with NATO countries in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Second, it shows how New Zealand is continuing to forge a more hardline foreign policy stance under Hipkins’ leadership.

After all, the involvement of the AP4 in NATO is being driven chiefly by the alliance’s interest in China.

At the Madrid summit last year, NATO launched its new long-term Strategic Concept that openly called out China for its ‘stated ambitions and coercive policies’ and pinpointed Beijing as a source of ‘systemic challenges’ for the alliance.

And much of the press conference after last week’s NATO foreign ministers’ meeting that New Zealand’s Nanaia Mahuta also attended was focused squarely on China.

Stoltenberg told media that China was ‘coming closer to us’ and cited a range of familiar Western criticisms of Beijing – ranging from its ‘assertive behaviour’ in the South China Sea, to actions over Hong Kong, Taiwan and its ties with Moscow – that made it necessary for NATO to ‘update and develop’ its stance towards China.

Indeed, the NATO Secretary General openly linked the alliance’s recent deepening of partnerships with Indo-Pacific countries such as New Zealand with NATO’s China strategy – which he called a ‘huge effort’.

Of course, unlike Finland – which became NATO’s 31st member last week – New Zealand cannot formally join NATO, given the alliance’s geographic focus.

But if New Zealand continues to align itself with NATO as part of the AP4 – which could be seen as ‘NATO plus’ – the implications could be as significant as the extraordinary signals from defence minister Andrew Little that Wellington could soon join non-nuclear components of the AUKUS pact between Australia, the United Kingdom and United States.

For one, it means that New Zealand will almost certainly strive to meet NATO’s military spending target of 2 per cent of GDP – a figure which Stoltenberg described last week as a ‘floor not a ceiling’.

To that end, New Zealand’s defence minister Andrew Little is continuing a softening-up campaign in the media to pave the way for greater military spending, ahead of the imminent reporting-back of a defence policy review committee and the Government’s Budget in May.

Any response from Beijing to the latest developments on New Zealand’s involvement with NATO and AUKUS has yet to be fully felt.

But China – New Zealand’s biggest trading partner – made no secret of its displeasure after Jacinda Ardern attended the NATO summit in Spain last year. At the time, the Chinese Embassy in Wellington issued a statement noting Beijing’s opposition to ‘all kinds of military alliances, bloc politics, or exclusive small groups’, while a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said NATO should not seek to ‘replicate the kind of bloc confrontation seen in Europe here in the Asia-Pacific’.

After the NATO meeting in Madrid in June 2022, Jacinda Ardern gradually reined in New Zealand’s more hawkish positioning with more soothing tones towards Beijing – culminating in her meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Thailand in November and her pledge to travel to China early in 2023.

Upon taking over the Prime Ministerial role from Ardern in January, Hipkins said a trip to China would be high on his priority list – but the signals have been rather mixed since then. Last month, Hipkins appeared to play down expectations of a visit to Beijing, citing ‘moving parts’ and domestic pressures during New Zealand’s election year.

Delaying an invitation to New Zealand’s Prime Minister to visit China would certainly be one way for Beijing to signal frustration.

Chris Hipkins may well be heading to the NATO summit in Vilnius.

But it could mean he has to wait longer to visit Beijing.

Geoffrey Miller is the Democracy Project’s geopolitical analyst and writes on current New Zealand foreign policy and related geopolitical issues. He has lived in Germany and the Middle East and is a learner of Arabic and Russian. He is currently working on a PhD on New Zealand’s relations with the Gulf states.

Political Roundup: NZ needs to distance itself from Australia’s anti-China nuclear submarines

The New Zealand Government has been silent about Australia’s decision to commit up to $400bn acquiring nuclear submarines, even though this is a significant threat to peace and stability in the Asia Pacific. The deal was struck by the Albanese Labor Government as part of its Aukus pact with the US and UK to combat China.

The debate over the incredibly expensive and provocative nuclear-powered attack submarine fleet is raging in Australia, where former prime minister Paul Keating has labelled it the country’s worst decision in over a hundred years, especially because of the huge risks it poses to Australia and peace in the region.

Here in New Zealand, reaction and debate has been rather muted, despite the fact that the issue has huge consequences for this country and will inevitably lead to some very tough choices for the Government here.

Former NZ PMs join the debate to condemn Aukus

Debate on what Aukus means for New Zealand is finally getting underway this week, with some interesting contributions yesterday from two former prime ministers.

First, former National prime minister Jim Bolger participated in a forum about New Zealand’s foreign policy in Wellington in which he is reported by the Herald’s Audrey Young to have criticised the Australian submarine buy up as “beyond comprehension” because of the cost and the damage to peace in the Pacific region.

Bolger said that New Zealand certainly doesn’t want any such submarines, and challenged proponents of the Aukus deal to defend it: “If you can find any Australian official who can explain why they need nuclear-powered submarines, come and tell me. I’d like to know.” And Young reported Bolger asking rhetorically, “How mad are we getting?” She says that “He spoke with despair about the near-daily threats of nuclear war which had the potential to destroy the planet.”

Following this, former Labour prime minister Helen Clark also came out strongly against the increasing militarisation of the Pacific by New Zealand’s allies. She tweeted yesterday that “New Zealand interests do not lie in being associated with Aukus”, and that such an “Association would be damaging to independent foreign policy.”

Clark has also lent her weight to those in the Pacific who are arguing that the Australian deal has been done behind the backs of the Pacific countries, which is bad for the stability of the region. There is a sense that Australia has betrayed its neighbours in unilaterally starting a new defence alliance that will inevitably lead to an arms race in the Asia Pacific.

Opposition from National and commentators

The National Party is much more critical of the Aukus deal than Labour. National’s foreign affairs spokesperson Gerry Brownlee has been strongly critical, saying the deal is bad for New Zealand’s security.

Asked by a journalist if the submarine pact will make New Zealand safer, Brownlee, who was a Minister of Defence in the last National Government, replied: “No, I don’t think it does”. He also criticised the way that Western countries are currently painting China as “the enemy”, saying “I’m not sure that’s the right sort of thinking” and “What I don’t like is the concept that we just seem to be dividing the world”.

Brownlee has also criticised Australia’s decision because it will create problems working with New Zealand, especially because of the nuclear elements of the new submarines. Such submarines will be barred from New Zealand waters.

National’s criticisms of the Australian submarine policy won’t go down well with many other politicians. Already New Zealand First leader Winston Peters has condemned the notion that Aukus will make New Zealand less safe, saying yesterday “That is an astonishing statement to make”, and he called for more military spending here.

Although the Green Party have been conspicuously silent on the huge new military development, former Green MP Gareth Hughes wrote this week on the submarine deal saying that nuclear war was now “terrifyingly possible in the next few years”, and New Zealand is likely to be dragged into any conflict between Australia and China because this country is signed up to a treaty that imposes an obligation to do so if Australia is attacked.

Hughes is astonished that New Zealand isn’t debating what is going on, and troubled by the fact that the current Government is pushing us more into alignment with Washington: “New Zealanders need to talk more about the risks, our decision-makers need to explain why New Zealand is aligning more closely with the United States military and as a sovereign country we have to ask are we acting independently or as a cog in a machine?”

Leftwing commentator Josie Pagani has also come out today against the Aukus deal: “The agreement is unnecessarily provocative to China, possibly foolhardy in its nuclear proliferation. It is not clear what Australia achieves by positioning nuclear submarines in the South China Sea, a long way from home.”

Also today, former United Future party leader Peter Dunne has penned a column calling for more debate on what Aukus will mean for New Zealand and the Asia Pacific. He argues that the way Aukus has been developed gives “the clear impression that Aukus is more a vehicle to reassert US influence in the region than a genuine multilateral security pact.” Dunne says that Prime Minister Chris Hipkins can’t continue to paint the issue as one that doesn’t involve New Zealand or require a reaction.

Questions over New Zealand’s independent foreign policy

Political scientist Nicholas Khoo, of the University of Otago, argues this week that the New Zealand government has been deliberately opaque in its reaction to the Aukus developments, saying Labour is “hedging” on the issue with its response of “ambiguity”. He points out that when the Aukus deal was first announced the then prime minister Jacinda Ardern was careful to welcome it and express her pleasure about the investment, and only citing New Zealand’s ban on nuclear vessels as a problem for the deal.

But he says that as the submarine alliance develops there it will make such equivocal stances less possible for New Zealand, and New Zealand’s independent foreign policy will become harder to maintain. In particular, there will be pressure on New Zealand to respond positively to the development.

The Labour Government has already purchased new sub-hunting P8-Poseidon aircraft. These will be expected to work closely with the Australian submarine fleet to hunt Chinese subs. And in doing so, New Zealand will not only be painting a military target on its back in working with Australia, but it will be alienating itself from our biggest trade partner, China.

The tightrope act of staying onside with both Washington and Beijing will get more difficult. Of course, this week the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nanaia Manuta, has travelled to Beijing. It’s partly a symbol of New Zealand’s increasingly strained relations with China that such a trip hasn’t occurred for four years. But she will be trying to mend fences.

At the same time, however, the United States Government sent their “Indo-Pacific czar” Kurt Campbell to Wellington, who spoke out publicly about being in “deep discussion” with the Government about increasing NZ-US defence arrangements, including how New Zealand could become involved in Aukus. In terms of this, he said: “We will be announcing soon that we want to launch a bilateral engagement between the United States and New Zealand on technology”.

After talking to the New Zealand Government, Campbell also claimed “We agreed that we would launch the critical components of Aukus, and then take steps to look at other partners” like New Zealand.

Security choices for New Zealand

Aukus developments will eventually require New Zealand to make some choices. As Peter Dunne argues today, New Zealand is likely to be pushed off its high-wire tightrope act between Washington and Beijing: “as the Aukus debate intensifies, New Zealand’s careful, fence-straddling diplomacy of the past two decades will be tested as never before. We cannot afford both our current level of relationship with China and involvement with Aukus. As Aukus develops, China is likely to force us to make clear where we stand.”

At the moment, New Zealand really has three options in terms of Aukus: 1) Attempt to join the broad programme in a supportive and auxiliary way, 2) Keep a distance, and diplomatically stay silent on the developments, or 3) Stand up against the militarisation of the Asia Pacific by condemning the development.

Campbell’s visit to New Zealand clearly shows that the first option is possible. This would amount to New Zealand going along with the new “might is right” doctrine that is building up. But, more likely, New Zealand will continue to try to keep onside with Western allies without fully joining in or opposing the increasing militarisation. But this is unlikely to be sustainable.

The third option of greater independence and neutrality is also possible. The Māori Party has recently put forward a new defence policy that would position New Zealand as neutral – a  “Switzerland of the Pacific”. This is an idea that needs more debate.

Some academics are arguing that New Zealand might actually be advantaged by being sidelined and right out of any US-UK-Australia security alliance. For instance, Prof Robert Patman of the University of Otago has argued this week that New Zealand stood to benefit by staying outside of Aukus completely and could “diversify its trade more easily with south-east Asian nations that did not like the tie-up.”

Clearly, a new cold war is quickly developing – and one that could soon be a hot war. This comes exactly 20 years after countries like the US, UK and Australia illegally invaded Iraq, leading to disaster. New Zealand would do well to avoid the same drumbeats to war that we are hearing at the moment.

Further reading on AUKUS, Foreign Affairs

1News: New Zealand better off outside AUKUS – Helen Clark
AAP: New Zealand opposition concerned by AUKUS
Peter Dunne (Newsroom): China will test NZ’s fence-straddling diplomacy as never before
Audrey Young (Herald): Former Prime Minister Jim Bolger denounces Aukus nuclear submarines for Australia (paywalled)
Koroi Hawkins and Caleb Fotheringham (RNZ): Pacific needs to sit up and pay close attention to AUKUS – Dame Meg Taylor
Josie Pagani (Stuff): The fist-pumping of Aukus doesn’t help counter the fist-pumping in Moscow
Thomas Manch (Stuff): Government considering new spying crimes to prosecute foreign agents
Thomas Manch (Stuff): A New Zealand embassy in Kyiv? Former defence minister Ron Mark thinks so
RNZ: MFAT confirms former NZ soldier Kane Te Tai’s death in Ukraine
Jan Kohout (RNZ): Emerging Pacific leaders in NZ for Dawn Raids-initiated scholarship

Other items of interest and importance today

CHILD POVERTY
Michael Neilson, Julia Gabel and Chris Knox (Herald): Cost of living: Child poverty levels hardly improving, still 120,000 in material hardship
RNZ: Child poverty reduction stalls ahead of cost-of-living crisis
Laura Frykberg (1News): Child poverty rates unchanged from previous year – Stats NZ
Bridie Witton (Stuff): Government’s child poverty reduction plan stalls
Michael Neilson (Herald): Child poverty: Campaigners say expanding in-work Family Tax Credit to beneficiaries would have ‘immediate difference’
Bridie Witton (Stuff): Children’s advocates say politicians must focus on child poverty – or stats will get worse
Jamie Ensor and Leighton Heikell (Newshub): Government says no change in child poverty rates ‘encouraging’ considering pressures, but other parties not impressed
Ripu Bhatia (Stuff): Poverty statistics paint ‘rosy picture’ of reality for Māori, academic says
Martyn Bradbury (Daily Blog): Chippy’s ‘Let them eat pie’: Bread and Butter but none for hungry children

COST OF LIVING, ECONOMY
Rob Stock (Stuff): New data on household incomes highlights the gap between the richest and poorest
Gareth Vaughan (Interest): Bill Rosenberg on how to measure household inflation better than the CPI does
Brianna Mcilraith (Stuff): All the changes coming to your wallet to help ease cost of living pressure on April 1
Jenée Tibshraeny (Herald): RBNZ: We need to accept we’re poorer
Dan Brunskill (Interest): New Zealanders need to accept the pandemic made them poorer, the RBNZ says
RNZ: Firms, workers need to lower inflation expectations – RBNZ chief economist
Liz McDonald (Stuff): National promises a return to basic economics to tackle cost of living crisis
Emma Hatton (Newsroom): More ‘how’ less ‘what’ for social services
Liam Dann (Herald): Truckometer: Traffic data shows economic growth in low gear (paywalled)
RNZ: Easing heavy traffic points to flat first quarter for economy
Alka Prasad (Herald): Warehouse profits slump, CEO warns ‘peak misery’ still to come on cost-of-living crisis (paywalled)

LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Heather du Plessis-Allan (Newstalk ZB): Auckland Council booting Local Government NZ is a warning to Kieran McAnulty
Tim Murphy (Newsroom): Auckland pulls a Brexit – on the mayor’s casting vote
Finn Blackwell (RNZ): Auckland Council votes to leave Local Government New Zealand
Todd Niall (Stuff): ‘800 members getting pissed and dancing’: Wayne Brown pulls Auckland Council out of Local Government NZ
Bernard Orsman (Herald): Auckland Council quits Local Government NZ: Mayor Wayne Brown says drinking behaviour as reason for move
Toby Manhire (Spinoff): Wellington mayor decries ‘Auxit’ as Wayne Brown leads Auckland out of local government group
Todd Niall (Stuff): Road cones and bus trials: Fact-checking Auckland mayor Wayne Brown’s big ideas
Corazon Miller (1News): Auckland Council delays debate on $1b rail blowout amid govt talks
RNZ: Chlöe Swarbrick urges super-city MPs to meet over ‘slash-and-burn’ Auckland Council budget
Todd Nial (Stuff): Former chief science advisor to PM wants fix for Auckland’s at-risk Southern Initiative
Erin Johnson (Stuff): Auckland’s flood recovery operation to cost $1m a month
Matthew Scott (Newsroom): Flood-affected Aucklanders breathe a sigh of rates relief
Erin Gourley (Stuff): The slogan that embarrassed a Wellington councillor
Nicholas Boyack (Stuff): Desperately seeking savings, Lower Hutt council plans to close aviary
Emily Ireland (Local Democracy Reporting): South Wairarapa water fails new standards
Rachael Comer (Stuff): Seven senior staff members signed resignation letter to Timaru District

EDUCATION
Luke Malpass (Stuff): Christopher Luxon’s big day back at school makes it really feel like election year
Matthew Hooton (Herald): National’s Christopher Luxon delivers a lesson for Labour with education policy (paywalled)
Martyn Bradbury (Daily Blog): National finally finds an issue in Education – How will they screw it up?
Mark Quinlivan (Newshub): Transport Minister Michael Wood takes savage ‘right-wing hack’ jab at academic over education policy
Russell Palmer (RNZ): Union and Labour criticise National’s new curriculum policy
1News: National’s curriculum rewrite pledge won’t fix issues – NZEI
Amelia Wade (Newshub): National promises to ‘teach the basics brilliantly’, but how has the sector graded its latest policy?
Adam Pearse and Claire Trevett (Herald): National’s education shake-up: Hour a day of reading, writing, maths – Education Minister issues challenge
Russell Palmer (RNZ): National Party leader Christopher Luxon announces education policy
Luke Malpass (Stuff): National Party school policy focuses on daily hourly sessions for maths, reading and writing
John Gerritsen (RNZ): Maniapoto training centre double-claimed government funding for hundreds of students

HEALTH
Ripu Bhatia (Stuff): New Zealand’s ethnic health inequities ‘avoidable, unfair and unjust’, academic says
Robin Martin (RNZ): New dioxin research deserves response, says New Plymouth mayor
Rachel Thomas (Stuff): Doctors make plea to stop advertising of prescription medicines directly to NZers
Jean Edwards (RNZ): Surgery delays leave Christchurch woman on liquid diet for a year – ‘My life is on hold’
Rowan Quinn (RNZ): Only 19 nurses outside of NZ granted fast tracked nurses visa by end of February
Concerns grow at plummeting rates of child immunisation
Lynne Chepulis (Stuff): Pharmac prioritised Māori and Pacific patients for access to new diabetes drugs – did it get it right?
Jacob Johnson (1News): Concerns grow at plummeting rates of child immunisation
Jamie Morton (Herald): Govt injects $70m into research on RNA tech used in Covid-19 vaccine
Toria Tokalau (Stuff): Health providers reach 96% of Pasifika community since Covid-19
Sophie Harris (Stuff): Lack of parking forces woman to cancel Starship appointments for terminally-ill son
Muriwai Hei (Whakaata Māori): Te Aranga Health Clinic bought to offer whanāu cheaper medical care
Dylan Cleaver (Spinoff): Inside the years-long fight to have a former All Black’s CTE recognised by ACC

POSIE PARKER
Thomas Cranmer: Free speech or transphobia? Kellie-Jay Keen’s visit to New Zealand sparks tensions
Rachel Smalley (Today FM): No one has the right to stop women from speaking
Katie Scotcher (RNZ): Rainbow groups take Immigration Minister to court over Posie Parker decision
Tom Hunt (Stuff): Human rights groups seek interim order to stop Posie Parker coming to NZ
Damien Venuto (Herald): Posie Parker: Did Immigration NZ get her decision right? – The Front Page
1News: Posie Parker’s entry to NZ encourages hatred – activist
Kate Hawkesby (Newstalk ZB): Posie Parker should never have been given all this attention in the first place
Mike Hosking (Newstalk ZB): Not liking what someone says isn’t a reason to ban them
Lloyd Burr (Today FM): Desperate trolls scrape the bottom of the barrel
Tova O’Brien (Today FM): Posie Parker is coming. Take a stand. We all have to.
Dita De Boni (NBR): Posie Parker: Can business be part of the pushback? (paywalled)
Rachel Smalley (NBR): Do corporates have a role in the ‘Posie Parker’ conversation? (paywalled)

PARLIAMENT, CO-GOVERNANCE
Chris Trotter (Daily Blog): All of Us, All of Us
Waatea News: Co-governance proven success in right places says PM
Chelsea Daniels (Herald): Anti-co-governance group finding it difficult to book venues
Brent Edwards (NBR): The three Rs, Posie Parker, the police, climate change
Joseph Los’e (Herald): Te Pāti Māori push for Aotearoa name change gains momentum but lacks political support
Michael Fallow (Stuff): Prestigious Ardern portrait an arresting sight in National heartland

HOUSING
Laura Smith (Local Democracy Reporting): Rotorua emergency housing motels: Government-commissioned report finds residents had positive experience
Kelvin McDonald (Whakaata Māori): ‘They don’t have to buy the land’: Ngāti Potiki’s leasehold plan for whānau home ownership in Pāpāmoa
Andrew McRae (RNZ): Hapuu challenges council plan for housing on possible paa site

EMPLOYMENT
Dita De Boni (NBR): Vexed employee-contractor issue thrown on policy bonfire (paywalled)
Rebecca Rendle (NBR): Policy bonfire leaves burning questions for gig economy (paywalled)
Catherine Hubbard (Stuff): It took this young woman seven years to find a job
Peter Griffin (Listener/Herald): Good luck getting Kiwi employees to give up on remote work (paywalled)

BUSINESS
Matt Raskovic (Stuff): Banks are making a killing because they don’t have skin in the game
Jonathan Milne (Newsroom): Warring building supplies firms tie up critical NZ land with 999-year covenants
Rebecca Stevenson (Interest): Carter Holt Harvey axes land covenants including some set for 999 years
RNZ: Amazon group’s web services signs cooperation deal with New Zealand government

CYCLONE GABRIELLE
Niva Chittock (RNZ): No health officials present at community meeting over contamination at Awatoto industrial zone
Gareth Vaughan (Interest): Cyclone Gabrielle insurance claims top 40k, worth about $890m, ICNZ says
RNZ: Cyclone Gabrielle: Insurance claims hit $890 million
Marcus Musson (Stuff): Pinning blame for slash solely on forestry sector a modern-day witch-hunt

CLIMATE CHANGE, RMA, ENVIRONMENT
Dan Brunskill (Interest): Government review of the Emissions Trading Scheme will look for ways to incentivise more reductions and less carbon offsets
Ian Llewellyn (BusinessDesk): Mixed feelings on Emissions Trading Scheme review (paywalled)
Ian Llewellyn (BusinessDesk): Fear of ETS failure spurs review (paywalled)
No Right Turn: Climate Change: More Labour sabotage
Richard Harman (Politik): Select Committee told slow down; you’re moving too fast (paywalled)
Brent Edwards (NBR): RMA reform uncertain: Chris Bishop (paywalled)
Lianne Dalziel (Newsroom): New Orleans’ lesson on fallible flood defences: Let’s not ‘build back better’
David Williams (Newsroom): How the Rakaia turned into a pipe for irrigators

TRANSPORT
Tom Hunt (Dominion Post): Let’s Get Wellington Moving consultant costs climb past $130 million
Jonathan Mitchell (NBR): Nats say Govt’s EV charging strategy ‘rushed’ and ‘uncosted’ (paywalled)

OTHER
Thomas Manch (Stuff): New Police Minister Ginny Andersen wants to take political ‘heat’ out of law and order
Greg Hurrell (BusinessDesk): Sir Peter Gluckman: Science reforms a ‘missed opportunity’ (paywalled)
Lynley Ward (Herald): Not guilty plea: Former broadcaster-turned-conspiracy campaigner Liz Gunn defends airport charges

One year to the day since Russian tanks ran over the Ukraine border — and over the UN Charter and international law in the process — the world is less certain and more dangerous than ever.

For New Zealand, the war has also presented a unique foreign policy challenge.

The current generation of political leaders initially responded to the invasion in much the same way previous generations responded to the First and Second World Wars: if a sustainable peace was to be achieved, international treaties and law were the mechanism of choice.

But when it was apparent these higher levels of maintaining international order had gridlocked because of the Russian veto at the UN Security Council, New Zealand moved back towards its traditional security relationships.

Like other Western alliance countries, New Zealand didn’t put boots on the ground, which would have meant becoming active participants in the conflict. But nor did New Zealand plead neutrality.

It has not remained indifferent to the aggression and atrocities, or their implications for a rule-based world.

The issue one year on is whether this original position is still viable. And if not, what are the military, humanitarian, diplomatic and legal challenges now?

President Biden makes a surprise visit to Kyiv in dramatic show of U.S. support for Ukraine days before anniversary of invasion https://t.co/iqUrTrRqvq

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) February 20, 2023

Military spending
While New Zealand has no troops or personnel in Ukraine, it has given direct support.

Defence force personnel assist with training, intelligence, logistics, liaison, and command and administration support. There has also been funding and supplied equipment worth more than NZ$22 million.

This has been welcomed, although it is considerably less on a proportional basis than the assistance offered by other like-minded countries. However, the deeper questions involve how the war has affected defence policies and spending overall internationally.

While New Zealand’s current Defence Policy Review is important at the policy level, the implications affect all citizens and political parties. Specifically, most countries — allies or not — are increasing military spending and collaborating to develop new generations of weapons.

For New Zealand, this calls into question the longer-term feasibility of its relatively low spending of 1.5 percent of GDP on defence. And Wellington is increasingly being left out of collaborative arrangements (AUKUS being just one example), which in turn reinforce alliances and provide pathways to technology.

This is tied to the largest question of all: whether New Zealand wishes to relegate itself to becoming a regional “police officer” or wants to carry its fair share of being part of an interlinked modern military deterrent.

Amid U.S. claims that Beijing may be poised to send weapons to help Russia’s war in Ukraine, China accused the Biden administration of spreading lies and defended Beijing’s close partnership with Russia. https://t.co/52tRnRRAFh

— The New York Times (@nytimes) February 20, 2023

Diplomacy and domestic law
New Zealand also needs to reconsider its commitment to humanitarian assistance. So far, almost $13 million has been spent and a special visa created allowing New Zealand-Ukrainians to bring family members in for two years. With the war showing no sign of ending, this will likely need to extend.

But New Zealand’s non-neutral status also means it has other responsibilities, and should consider greater assistance with the Ukrainian refugee emergency. This would require going beyond the current visa scheme, and opening and expanding the refugee quota programme’s current cap of 1500.

Diplomatically, New Zealand also has to start considering what peace would look like. This raises hard questions about territorial integrity, accountability for war crimes, reparations and what might happen to populations that do not want to be part of Ukraine.

New Zealand has enacted a stand-alone law to apply sanctions on Russia. But because this now sits outside the broken multilateral UN system, a degree of caution is called for, given the door is now open to sanction other countries, UN mandate or not.

Preparing for the worst
Finally, New Zealand needs to prepare for the worst. The war is showing no sign of calming down. Weapons and combatant numbers are escalating unsustainably.

Nuclear arms control is in freefall, with Russian President Vladimir Putin suspending participation in the New START Treaty, the last remaining agreement between Russia and the United States.

At the same time, the US has ramped up the rhetoric, suggesting China might supply arms to Russia, and declaring unequivocally that Russia has committed crimes against humanity in Ukraine.

Were China to go against Western demands and provide weapons, countries like New Zealand will be in a very difficult position: its leading security ally, the US, may expect penalties to be imposed against its leading trade partner, China.

While Putin may be able to live with the rising death toll of his own soldiers (already over 100,000), at some point the Russian population won’t be. As the US discovered in Vietnam, it was not the external enemy that ultimately prevailed, it was domestic unrest, as more people turned against an unpopular war.

How Putin will respond to a war he cannot win conventionally, while risking losing popularity and position at home, is impossible to predict.

Everyone might hope his nuclear threats are a bluff, but New Zealand’s leaders would be wise to plan for the worst.

Whether a small, distant, non-neutral South Pacific nation might be a direct target or not is conjecture. What is not speculation, however, is that if the Ukraine war spins out of control, New Zealand would be in an emergency unlike anything it’s witnessed before.

Dr Alexander Gillespie, professor of law, University of Waikato. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons licence. Read the original article.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

New Zealanders should be prepared for the number of fatalities in the wake of Cyclone Gabrielle to increase, says Prime Minister Chris Hipkins.

He said at a media briefing in Gisborne that every available resource was being used to help find those who are missing and to rescue those who were known about but unable to be reached.

Over the past two days the rescue coordination centre had overseen 450 rescues and all rescue requests in the 111 system had been completed, Hipkins said.

Overnight the death toll rose to seven but there are still people for whom the police hold grave concerns.

As of 2.30pm yesterday, 3544 reports of uncontactable people had been registered with the police. A further 450 had been reported as found.

Those included multiple reports for the same people. Police were prioritising those in the more isolated areas.

“And we do need to be prepared for the likelihood that there will be more fatalities,” Hipkins said.

The situation in Gisborne
Hipkins said the damage in Gisborne was extensive and there was “absolutely no doubt” that communities impacted were under enormous pressure.

Earlier, Hipkins flew to Gisborne for his first in-person look at the scale of destruction from the cyclone.

Hipkins said it “was a pretty moving morning”.

“Flying in over Gisborne is was clear the extent of the damage even before we’d gotten off the plane.”

It was clear there were big challenges facing the community, he said.

Communication was incredibly difficult for some people and both fibre routes in and out of Gisborne had been damaged with engineers working to repair the damage as fast as they could, Hipkins said.

Getting the water supply up and running would not be an overnight fix but was a prority, he said.

Hawke’s Bay update
The government was trying to get hotspots and other temporary measures in place and 10 more Starlinks were on their way to Gisborne. Five units have been delivered to Wairoa and Hawke’s Bay, with more on the way.

Hipkins said there was a reasonably good supply of Starlinks in NZ.

“They’re not going to provide a complete answer though, but they will provide a limited amount of connectivity in those areas that are currently cut off and that will hopefully allow us to at least establish some of those basic communication channels.

“We’ve been able to reach Wairoa and Hawke’s Bay by road today and SH2 to Gisborne has also been opened on a limited basis for convoys of emergency supplies including food, water and fuel.”

Temporary supplies were on route and more would be arriving soon, he said.

“Fresh water is clearly an issue.”

There were real concerns for the Eskdale areas, Hipkins said.

Door-to-door
Teams were there going door-to-door to identify the extent of the damage and any human harm, he said. There had not been a report back from these teams yet.

People in Hawke’s Bay were advised to be prepared.

“We’re dealing with very unpredictable weather at the moment, it is certainly likely that there will be more rain, that’s what the forecasts are suggesting.”

The damage to roads in all areas was one of the most significant challenges and people in these areas were asked to minimise their own movements so supplies could get to where they were needed, Hipkins said.

“If you can stay put, stay put, make sure you’ve got everything you need to stay put if it’s safe to do that and if you need to evacuate be prepared and be ready to evacuate as well.

“That involves your grab to go bag, making sure you’ve got something warm and dry to wear and that you’ve got a plan.”

Communities were coming together and managing the situation very well, Hipkins said.

Alert others
People may need to go door-to-door to alert others if they need to evacuate, Hipkins said.

The most recent information is that approximately 102,000 customers are without power across the upper North Island.

Hipkins said the government had released $1 million as an immediate top up to the mayoral relief fund as the first step to help get immediate support to those who need it.

A further $1 million had been released to the Hawke’s Bay.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

As a huge effort ramps up in Aotearoa New Zealand to restore essential services to thousands of people in Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay, police hold “grave concerns” for some reported missing.

Five people have been confirmed killed in the devastation of Cyclone Gabrielle.

In Hawke’s Bay, a child was caught in rising water in the settlement of Eskdale, a woman died in a landslide, a body was found on the shore at Bay View, and a body believed to be caught in flood waters was found in Gisborne.

The body of a volunteer firefighter who had been missing in Muriwai, near Auckland, since Monday night was recovered yesterday.

By Wednesday, more than 1400 people had been reported as “uncontactable” using the police 105 online reporting form, mostly in Hawke’s Bay and Tairāwhiti.

While police expected a large number of the reports to be the result of communication lines being down, they confirmed they held “grave concerns” for several people missing in the Hawke’s Bay and Tairāwhiti areas.

The navy ship HMNZS Manawanui is due in Tairāwhiti this morning with water supplies, and HMNZS Te Mana will sail to Napier to supply Wairoa with water and other essentials.

The NZ Defence Force expects to move a water treatment facility to Wairoa, and a rapid relief team that reached the town on Wednesday will be handing out up to 500 food packages.

Engineers and roading crews are checking bridges and clearing roads throughout both regions.

Prime Minister Chris Hipkins is due to fly to Gisborne today in what will be his first in-person look at the scale of destruction from Cyclone Gabrielle.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

A NZ Defence Force operation was beginning tonight to supply Wairoa in New Zealand’s North Island with food and water after being cut off by Cyclone Gabrielle floodwaters.

A rapid relief team flown in by the airforce was organising a drop of bottled water for 3000 people from a helicopter this evening.

Prime Minister Chris Hipkins said the team was also providing BBQ meals for a similar number of people, and would provide 300 to 500 food packages in the morning.

They will only stop cooking if they run out of people to feed or run out of food, Hipkins said

Three airforce helicopters also carried out evacuations in Hawke’s Bay today.

The army has deployed a logistics support team of 100 people and 30 vehicles to Hawke’s Bay, while the air force today surveyed damage along the East Coast.

The HMNZS Manawanui was expected to arrive at first light in Gisborne, delivering water supplies to small communities on its way.

Water treatment plant
The Defence Force will also take a water treatment plant to Wairoa, with the HMNZS Te Mana delivering further drinking water.

NZDF now has more than 700 people involved in relief efforts, along with four aircraft, seven helicopters, two ships and 58 trucks.

MetService said heavy rain would continue to hit central New Zealand until Thursday with high waves along East Coast.

Earlier, Hawke’s Bay Civil Defence reported Wairoa (pop. 8000) had been completely cut off overnight and had only one day worth of food and enough drinking water for two days.

In a statement, the Civil Defence branch said the town had lost lifelines to Napier and Gisborne, including power, phones, internet and roads.

A National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) representative was on route to Wairoa via helicopter from Napier overnight to support the team and the response effort.

With power restored to most of Wairoa by 5pm, with the exception of Mahia/Tuai, the key concern for the welfare of the community was be dwindling food and water supplies, Civil Defence said.

Relying on air supplies
Controller Liz Lambert said that with the loss of roads, they would be relying on supplies coming in by air.

“Wairoa only has one day’s worth of food, and enough drinking water for two days. We have made a request to NEMA for enough food and water to supply the district for seven days.”

Much of Hawke’s Bay remained flooded as the region braced for continued rain, Civil Defence said.

Evacuations in the wider Hawke’s Bay on Tuesday took place in Ruataniwha, Waihirere and Ormond Rd, Haumoana, Eskdale, Taradale, Porangahau village, Waipawa township, Waipukura, Awatoto, Te Awa, Brookfield and Wairoa.

Police and FENZ have carried out numerous rescues and continue to respond to stranded residents, according to Civil Defence.

Evacuation Centres were activated at Taihoa Marae, War Memorial Hall and Presbyterian Hall. An Evacuation Centre in Nuhaka has been established at the Mormon Church.

Evacuation centres are in operation in Central Hawke’s Bay, Hastings, Napier and Wairoa with additional sites being added as required.

Power outages
In Hastings and Napier, the cause of power outages has been linked to the flooding of the Redclyffe substation causing the Transpower network to go down, Civil Defence said.

“Unison reported outages for 60,000 customers across Hastings, Havelock North, Napier, north along east coast to Tūtira and south to Waimārama. It is expected to take some time before power is fully restored across the region.

A number of the region’s cell towers are being operated on battery supply allowing some network coverage although this is still intermittent. Mobile communications are still out in Wairoa with response teams relying on radio and FENZ communicating via satellite.

A number of bridges remain impassable and there is still no access between Hastings and Napier.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

A View from Afar – In this podcast, political scientist Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning analyse how New Zealand and other nations are providing intelligence expertise in the defence of Ukraine.

But are the SIGINT and TECHINT operations a part of the NATO partnership, or, a part of the Five Eyes intelligence network’s operations – where the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand share resources to acquire and coordinate global and targeted intelligence.

Does confirmation from New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern that New Zealand has deployed seven Defence intelligence officers to the United Kingdom and Belgium underscore a direct involvement against Russia and in defence of Ukraine by other independent nations like New Zealand?

• What will the intelligence, including geo-spacial analysis, most likely be used for and how would it be derived and delivered?
• How has western intelligence assisted Ukraine in this war and also in the targeting of Russian generals who were identified and killed during hostilities in Ukraine (ref. Washington Post)?
• How significant has Open Source Intelligence been in the Russia Ukraine war (to date) including the use of citizen acquired video and data and its dissemination to offensive and defensive operations in the conflict?
• And why is SIGINT and TECHINT proving to be more important than ever in this specific conflict?

Join Paul and Selwyn for this LIVE recording of this podcast while they consider these big issues, and remember any comments you make while live can be included in this programme.

You can comment on this debate by clicking on one of these social media channels and interacting in the social media’s comment area. Here are the links:

• Facebook.com/selwyn.manning
• Youtube
• Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning

If you miss the LIVE Episode, you can see it as video-on-demand, and earlier episodes too, by checking out EveningReport.nz or, subscribe to the Evening Report podcast here.

The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top  Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication.

Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category. You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.

A global aid effort is underway for Tonga with vessels en route to the Pacific kingdom from Australia, the United Kingdom, Japan and the US as well as New Zealand.

NZ Defence Force Maritime Component Commander Commodore Garin Golding told RNZ Pacific nearby Fiji was also assisting in the relief efforts.

“Fiji is assisting Tonga, they are providing land forces which are going to be embarked on the Adelaide,” he said.

Three New Zealand Navy vessels have departed already and a second C-130 Hercules dropped aid off yesterday following the devastating undersea eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano and tsunami on January 15.

The HMNZS Canterbury set sail for Tonga on Friday night, the latest to assist with the aid effort.

The ship has two NH90 helicopters, personnel and supplies onboard.

“On board the HMNZS Canterbury is water, milk powder and tarpaulins, but due to her size they have also embarked vehicles and forklifts which are needed to help distribute aid around the airport and port,” Commodore Golding said.

Engineer task force embarked
“We have also embarked an engineer task force and they can help purify water.”

The HMNZS Wellington and Aotearoa are already in Tonga.

Commodore Golding said the team onboard the Aotearoa had successfully offloaded five containers of stores and spent Saturday offloading bulk water supplies to be distributed across the island.

“They will be doing that today right through to early next week,” Golding said.

“The HMNZS Wellington sailed overnight [Friday], they received another survey task to the island ‘Eua which is the south east of Tongatapu, they will spend the whole day using their hydrographic and diving personnel just to verify that it is safe for shipping to go in and out.”

Wellington was set to return to Nuku’alofa to continue the survey task, with Aotearoa to stay alongside to continue to offload water supplies.

Australian efforts
The Royal Australian Navy is supporting the effort too, while HMNZS Adelaide is on its way.

“My understanding is, in addition to the three ships we will have, [the] Adelaide from Australia, the [Royal Navy ship HMS] Spey from the UK, and the US already has the Sampson [there] and a coast guard vessel is on its way down. I understand a Japanese vessel is on route. I have no information with respects to China,” Commodore Golding said.

The Tongan government has requested covid-19 measures be observed during the effort and Golding said that was a major focus of the team.

“We will be receiving tasks from the Tongan government and we will be responsive to whatever these tasks are.”

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Tagata Pasifika on the latest aid efforts for Tonga. Video: Tagata Pasifika

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz