As New Caledonia marks the second anniversary of a spate of unrest and riots that broke out on 13 May 2024, the situation on the ground remains tense, on the political, economic and security levels.

Politically, over the past two years, there have been sequences of discussion between local stakeholders and the French State.

Under the now former Minister for Overseas Territories, Manuel Valls, a series of talks in the suburbs of Paris (Bougival) in July 2025, led to a document that seems to provide a roadmap for more powers for the French Pacific territory, including the prospect of a “State” of New Caledonia, with its associated “nationality”.

This Bougival process was, however, denounced by the FLNKS (Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front) which said, after its delegates had initially signed the agreement, that their signatures were withdrawn.

Other parties, including the “moderate” pro-independence PALIKA and UPM, committed to the agreement.

But the legislative byproducts of the Bougival document, including a constitutional amendment and an organic law, could not be enacted, especially as a result of a rebuke from the French National Assembly on April 2 this year.

Through a game of alliances between local and mainland French parties, the rejection of the Bougival-inspired bills came from both left (Socialists) and far-left (La France Insoumise) parties and even from the far-right Rassemblement National (RN).

As French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced earlier this month, after holding a fresh series of talks with local politicians, he had decided that crucial local elections should be held on June 28, most of the local parties have now entered into campaign mode.

The poll, which had been postponed three times since May 2024 (the date originally set) is now once again at the centre of debates, especially on the sensitive question of who will be qualified to cast their votes.

Since the Nouméa Accord was signed in 1998, and as part of its implementation, the electoral roll is currently “frozen”. It means it excludes people who were born or have resided in New Caledonia for an uninterrupted 10 years after November 1998.

There have been talks on an “adjustment” of the sensitive electoral roll to at least include people who were born in New Caledonia and have reached voting age since 1998.

Relaxing this criterion — which was originally designed as a temporary measure to guard against a potential risk of “diluting” the indigenous Kanak population vote — would concern about 10,000 new voters, usually referred to as “the natives”.

But this issue is crystallising again tensions and passions in New Caledonia, just like it did in reaction to an earlier attempted constitutional amendment which, in May 2024, was also perceived as the main trigger for the demonstrations, followed by unrest, staged by pro-independence parties.

The violence caused 14 deaths and more than 2 billion euros (NZ$3.9 billion) in material damage, thousands of jobs lost due to the destruction of businesses, as well as a 13.5 percent drop in New Caledonia’s GNP.

But two years on, French Minister for Overseas Naïma Moutchou and French PM Lecornu, have launched another attempt to “adjust” the provincial roll, focusing on the inclusion of the “natives”.

The provincial elections in New Caledonia elects new members for the three provincial assemblies. Based on the results, they will also determine proportionally, the makeup of New Caledonia’s Congress, the makeup of New Caledonia’s collegial government and its president.

The organic law to integrate the natives is scheduled to be tabled before the Senate on  May 18, and later before the Lower House, the National Assembly.

On the same day in Nouméa, the local Congress will be asked to vote and therefore express its position on the same matter, even though the vote would be non-binding for the French lawmakers.

Under a particularly tight schedule, the proposed organic law is also supposed to be endorsed by France’s Constitutional Council before the end of May 2026.

If it fails, New Caledonia’s provincial elections will still take place, but without any change to the “frozen” electoral roll.

In a special, 30-minute long address dedicated to New Caledonia, on social networks on May 8, Lecornu said the “status quo is not a destiny”.

After the provincial polls, Lecornu intends to bring politicians together again sometime in July to resume wider talks on New Caledonia’s political future.

In preparation for the poll, most of New Caledonia’s political parties and groups, whether pro-independence or pro-France (those who wish New Caledonia to remain a part of France), have already positioned themselves, especially on the electoral roll issue.

In the pro-France camp, there are ructions within leading parties, such as Rassemblement-LR and other components, such as Les Loyalistes or Nicolas Metzdorf’s Génération NC.

Rassemblement president and head of the local government Alcide Ponga’s suggestion that his party should run the provincial elections behind Metzdorf — who is also one of New Caledonia’s two representatives at the French National Assembly — has drawn criticism and several resignations from Rassemblement.

Since August 2024, the FLNKS has lost two of its pillars: the PALIKA (Kanak Liberation Party) and the UPM (Progressist Union in Melanesia) have formed their own “UNI” (Union Nationale pour l’Indépendance) group, mostly based on their disapproval of the hardline approach promoted by the main component of FLNKS, Union Calédonienne and its allied “pressure groups”.

One of those groups, the CCAT (Field Action Coordination Committee), was perceived as the main force behind the protests that later degenerated into riots, in May 2024.

In August 2024, CCAT leader Christian Téin was elected as FLNKS president, even though he was at the time serving a pre-trial jail term in Mulhouse (north-east of mainland France).

Pending the ruling on his case for alleged crime-related charges, which has not happened yet, Téin was allowed to return to New Caledonia.

The purpose of the march was to reaffirm that “the fight is not over” and to pay homage to the Kanak “martyrs” of May 2024.

“We are here because what happened in 2024 is about to happen again,” FLNKS politburo member Henri Juni told the crowd, denouncing what he terms another “passage en force” from the French State.

Juni said the FLNKS now aimed at restoring “maximal unity” within the pro-independence camp to obtain maximal results at the coming provincial elections.

FLNKS’s official stance on the matter is that the electoral roll can be modified, but that this can only take place as part of a comprehensive agreement on the future of New Caledonia.

PALIKA, on its part, held an extraordinary congress over the weekend that mostly concluded that its commitment to the Bougival process, further reinforced by more talks in January 2026, had now de facto come to an end, since it regarded this process as also de facto ended due to the April 2026 French parliament’s rejection.

In view of the June 2026 provincial polls, PALIKA is now calling for “mobilisation” from voters “in order to create the conditions of a ‘rapport de force’ to support our project of full sovereignty in partnership”.

On the sensitive issues of relaxing the restrictions of the electoral roll, PALIKA says in a release published on Tuesday that they are in favour of a readjustment for the “natives”.

One heart, one voice
On the pro-France side, parties are in support of the relaxation of the electoral roll, not only for the “natives”, but also for qualified “spouses”.

A local association named “Un, Coeur, une voix” (One heart, one voice, or OHOV) is campaigning against the minimal inclusion of “natives”, but calls for a wider opening for the roll.

“This is a minimal adjustment that institutionalises a durable exclusion”, OHOV wrote to French President Emmanuel Macron early in May 2026.

OHOV is also preparing to bring the matter to a court, in opposition to the partial “readjustment” of the proposed organic law to eventually contest the future outcome of the provincial polls.

“You have thousands of (New) Caledonians who were born there, or their spouses, … And they cannot vote… This is a matter of justice, of balance also and this is not a great demographic upset, it’s a point of equilibrium”, Minister Moutchou pleaded earlier this week during an interview with French national media France Info.

Security issues
On the security front, French High commissioner Jacques Billant has already enforced a ban on the sale of alcohol between 11 and 17 May 2026. The only exception being the sale of alcohol at New Caledonia’s international airport, Nouméa-La Tontouta.

Billant said this was “to prevent any public order unrest”, or “events and demonstrations” taking place around the symbolic date of 13 May 2024.

Earlier in April, 3-star Lieutenant-General Pierre Poty, who commands all gendarmerie forces in France’s Overseas Territories, told New Caledonian media French forces were “ready to confront fresh unrest, thanks to its prepositioned forces and their armoured components”.

But he said he did not see “any precursor sign of a resumption of violence”.

Meanwhile, in Nouméa, a neighbourhood watch group of so-called “Citizen Resistance Collective” (CRC), said earlier this week they have remained vigilant and would not allow “another May 13 to happen, because the response would be immediate and determined”.

The CRC was formed during the 2024 unrest, mainly to protect their property against burning and looting from protesters.

Early in May 2026, the French High Commission in Nouméa revealed latest statistics showing that in 2025, the number of burglaries on residential properties has risen by 46.7 percent, mostly in the capital Nouméa and its urban surroundings.

Economy
New Caledonia’s economic situation remains a matter for concern.

Most private sector stakeholders have sounded the alarm bell over the past months, despite French assistance being deployed over the past two years, mostly to refinance the construction of destroyed public buildings and infrastructure.

Businesses, employers and employees are up in arms against the current situation which deprives business leaders and investors of the required “visibility” to regain confidence.

Most of them are demanding that a political agreement be reached, which would provide them a minimum of predictability in the long term.

“We don’t believe things are getting better”, New Caledonia’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCI) vice president Stéphane Yoteau told an economic forum earlier this month.

Yoteau said businesses in New Caledonia have now reached “a degree of absolute urgency”.

“The situation is catastrophic, we’re now caught in a vicious circle that is feeding itself: less business (-20 percent), less employment (-12,000), less spending revenues (household budgets have lost 10 percent on average), so there is less consumption, therefore less public tax income, etc. And so on”, the CCI leader explained.

The forum gathered representatives from employers federations MEDEF-NC, CPME-NC (small and medium industries confederation) and FEINC (federation of industries of New Caledonia).

‘A degree of absolute urgency’
They are asking for five emergency measures, including a postponement or a tax holiday for some social contributions.

They said these measure could be drawn from French government assistance and re-directed to help small and medium businesses keep their heads above water.

They say New Caledonia’s economy is “on the verge of collapse” and “economic breakdown”.

“The question today is not even to access financing faculties. There is no more business in New Caledonia. Everything stops,” FEINC President Xavier Benoist told local media.

He said 40 percent of businesses only have a few weeks of visibility and 45 percent have only three months left in terms of cash flow.

Despite the recent announcement from the French PM of a “re-foundation” plan for more than 2 billion euros over the next five years, business leaders are asking for an immediate emergency package to “save New Caledonia’s economy”.

“What we are asking is not a favour, it’s not assistance. It’s something to keep our economic fabric alive. Otherwise, it will continue to go down”, said Sonia Critg, vice-president of the small industries branch of the CPME.

“Not doing anything today amounts to deliberately choosing a much deeper and much more expensive social crisis tomorrow”, she stressed.

On May 11, more than 100 business leaders, employees, unemployed, retired workers, staged a protest march in front of New Caledonia’s government building in downtown Nouméa.

Once again, at the heart of their plea, was a cry for assistance to ease their situation which, they said, was “no longer bearable”.

Minister for Economy Christopher Gygès received a delegation and promised some exemption measures were in the pipeline, especially targeting small and very small businesses.

Recently appointed head of the French inter-ministerial mission for reconstruction, Amaury Decludt recently completed his first mission in the French Pacific territory.

He assured that out of the more than 2 billion euros earmarked by France, about 10 percent was ready to be mobilised, mainly for large infrastructure projects such as one road across New Caledonia’s main island or a project to build bus exchange stations in rural areas.

He said talks were ongoing regarding New Caledonia’s crucial nickel mining sector and has been facing major difficulties over the past few years..

Out of the three companies currently in existence, two (one in the North of the main island, the other in the South) were currently up for sale.

Decludt also said the French government was also in contact with the European Union to persuade Brussels of the appeal of New Caledonia’s nickel.

New Caledonia’s nickel industry has been facing major structural challenges over the past few years, mainly due to the rise of world-class competitors in Indonesia, as well as high costs of production mainly related to high cost of the energy.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

French Senators have endorsed a Constitutional amendment text regarding New Caledonia’s future political status.

Two-hundred and fifteen senators (mostly an alliance between right and centre-right parties) voted in favour, and 41 voted against.

The four-hour sitting was marked by a lengthy address by French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, who supported the text, saying a status quo on New Caledonia was “not a viable option”.

He said to leave things as they were would amount to “abandoning France’s republican ideals, social progress and the renewed construction of peace” in the French Pacific territory.

“This [Bougival] agreement is not perfect”, Lecornu conceded, “but it is the best we have collectively come up with in four years of negotiations.”

Lecornu said the extra package contained some sizeable chunks dedicated to “strengthening (New Caledonia’s) attractiveness” (330 million euros) through the creation of trade free zones, tax exemptions for future investing businesses and another 500 million euros dedicated to support the crucial nickel mining and processing industry.

But not without conditions.

“A credible transformation plan was currently in the making,” Lecornu explained.

“To support and accompany, yes, but to fund losses indefinitely, no.”

The vote comes almost two years after unrest and riots in May 2024, leaving 14 dead and more than 2 billion euros in material damage, as well as hundreds of businesses looted and destroyed.

Since then, New Caledonia has struggled to put its economy (which suffered a reduction of its GDP by 13.5 percent) back on its feet.

Trigger issue
The main triggering factor for the 2024 riots was a legislative process before the French Parliament in a bid to modify conditions of eligibility for New Caledonian citizens at local elections.

These elections are important because they determine the members of the three provinces (North, South and the Loyalty Islands), membership of the territory’s Parliament  (Congress), and members of New Caledonia’s government and its president.

The process was eventually aborted after initially peaceful protests (organised by one of the main components of the pro-independence FLNKS (Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front) — Union Calédonienne, and its Field Action Coordinating Cell — degenerated into riots.

During the same sitting, French Senators have also endorsed another amendment that once again postpones the date of New Caledonia’s provincial elections to 20 December 2026 at the latest.

The crucial poll has already been postponed three times since its initial scheduled date of May 2024.

The Senatorial vote is only the first step in a longer legislative path for the text on New Caledonia, based on the transcription of talks that were held in July 2025 and in January 2026.

The meetings, which respectively resulted in texts dubbed “Bougival” and “Elysée-Oudinot”, were initially endorsed by a large majority of New Caledonia’s parties represented at its local Congress.

But since August 2025, the FLNKS has withdrawn its support, saying the proposed agreements do not represent a credible path to the full sovereignty they demand.

Over the past few weeks, intense lobbying has taken place both in New Caledonia and  Paris, both on the pro-independence and the pro-France side of the political chessboard, in order to win over French MPs.

“Kanaky-New Caledonia has already paid a heavy price because of the [French] government’s stubbornness,” he told senators.

The text tabled in the French Parliament proposes to establish a “State of New Caledonia” within the French realm, as well as a correlated New Caledonian “nationality” (tied to a pre-existing French nationality), as well as a new process of gradual transfer of powers from Paris. But at the same time it rejects any future use of referendums (an instrument regarded by Paris as “divisive”).

Between 2018 and 2021, as prescribed by the 1998 Nouméa Accord, three referenda have been held regarding New Caledonia’s self-determination. They resulted in three rejections of independence, even though the last poll — in December 2021 — was widely boycotted by the pro-independence movement.

“It is because of these three votes, which say ‘yes’ to the French Republic, that this very republic must deploy its economic and social ambition, regardless of the future outcome of political talks”, pro-France Les Loyalistes leader Sonia Backès commented on social networks.

Another prominent pro-France politician, New Caledonia’s MP at the National Assembly, Nicolas Metzdorf, said Tuesday’s vote was “a first step”.

But the text, just like in 2024, also touches on the conditions of eligibility to gain the right to vote at local elections.

Until now, under the ageing Nouméa Accord (1998), the right to vote at local elections is “frozen” to a special roll that includes people born in New Caledonia or residing there before 1998, among other conditions.

“Unfreezing” the electoral roll would mean allowing some 12,000 more people born in New Caledonia and another 6,000 people who have been residing for at least an uninterrupted 15 years.

‘Waiting for stability’
Opponents to the project, just like in 2024, argue that this opening would contribute to diluting the indigenous voice at local political elections.

The other Senator for New Caledonia, Georges Naturel (regarded as pro-France, Les Républicains party) abstained because “deep inside, I know this Constitutional reform will unfortunately not bring the stable and long term political solution New Caledonia needs”.

Socialist and Green Senators also abstained, saying any future comprehensive agreement has to include everyone, including the FLNKS.

Otherwise, “there is no lasting solution to ensure peace, stability and development”, Socialists leaders argued last week in an op-ed in national daily Le Monde.

They went even further saying that the text currently under scrutiny, as it stands, is “ominous” and “dangerous”.

The move, already announced last week by the Socialists, was designed to give the government “the opportunity to suspend debates on the text and call for provincial elections at the end of May or beginning of June 2026, instead of the now re-scheduled December 2026).

According to this scenario, this would then be followed by a new round of discussions, involving newly-elected members of New Caledonia’s Congress.

French Minister for Overseas Naïma Moutchou reacted to the Senate’s vote, saying New Caledonians “have gone through tiring months and are now waiting for stability and useful decisions regarding their day-to-day lives”.

Moutchou admitted the proposed process and associated calendar was “very imperfect and in parts very unsatisfactory . . . but it is indispensable. To stop this constitutional bill now would mean to close the door to the ongoing process since Bougival [talks],” she told a French Senate committee on 17 February 2026.

“We have to give this imperfect process a chance because it has the merit of providing visibility to local stakeholders,” she said.

In the Lower House, opposition ranks are much stronger and therefore debates and process are expected to be much rockier, with the open support of large blocks of opposition, including far-left LFI (La France Insoumise, Unbowed France).

Another significant and openly declared opponent is the far-right Rassemblement National (RN).

Others include the Socialists, the Greens, the Communist Party, according to latest reports.

Later, since this is a Constitutional Amendment, both Houses of Parliament are expected to be summoned and to be endorsed validly, the Constitutional Bill needs to receive the support of three fifths of the joint sitting (called a Congress, held in the city of Versailles).

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Talks on New Caledonia’s political future have been underway in Paris after French President Emmanuel Macron launched a fresh roundtable on Friday, despite the absence of one of the French territory’s largest pro-independence group, the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS).

During a first meeting with New Caledonia’s political stakeholders, Macron “regretted one of the political partners did not wish to respond to our invitation”.

But he said more talks were needed to “reach an agreement to get out of an already too long uncertainty”.

“Today, the State wishes to continue to advance on stabilising New Caledonia’s institutions, as part of a dialogue respectful of everyone, without any forceful passage, but without any paralysis either,” the French President said.

New Caledonia’s Congress (Parliament) Speaker Veylma Falaeo (Wallisian-based Eveil Océanien party) echoed Macron’s remarks, saying she too regretted the absence of the FLNKS absence “but it’s now time to move forward”.

Eveil Océanien leader Milakulo Tukumuli suggested politicians should agree on a “new period of stability of 15 to 20 years to rebuild and reform [New Caledonia], after which a new referendum could be held on a new common project or even an associated state”.

“[Macron] has now considered that one could not eternally wait for people who are not here around the table and that therefore we had to move forward because, and we told him once again, either we move forward or New Caledonia is sinking,” Pro-France Virginie Ruffenach (Rassemblement-LR) told French media.

The FLNKS, which last week decided not to travel to Paris for the talks, had however formulated a late request to join in remotely.

The request was declined.

Hardline pro-France politicians confront Macron
During the same opening session dedicated to each party’s statement, the most confrontational ones came from the two main pro-France MPs, who have also recently become increasingly critical of the French President.

“We have done our part. We have negotiated; we have made concessions; we have taken our responsibilities. Now it’s on you to do your part,” Les Loyalistes leader Sonia Backès told the gathering on Friday.

“Those who don’t want any agreement have already made us lose precious time.

“We are here because the [French] state did not engage sufficient forces on 13 May 2024.”

She was referring to the riots that killed 14, damaged or destroyed hundreds of businesses and the loss of thousands of jobs for a total of some 2.2 billion euros (NZ$4 billion) in damages.

She said the text, even if it was to be modified, was about “choosing what kind of society we want . . .  Either it’s the rule of the strongest or it’s a victory for democracy,” she told Macron.

Another pro-France outspoken politician, New Caledonia’s MP in the National Assembly Nicolas Metzdorf, said: “Mr President, I don’t really know what we are doing here today. We never requested this meeting . . .  Because as far as we’re concerned, we did everything that had to be done. We have worked. We have negotiated. We have made concessions.

“Instead, you should have convened the [French] ministers and parliamentary groups who remain . . .  paralysed by fear.”

‘Basic principles of democracy’
Metzdorf went further in accusing France of being “unable to enforce the basic principles of democracy when it comes to one of its own territories”.

“As far as we’re concerned, we have reached the limits of what is acceptable. Now things are simple and perfectly clear: either we come out of this sequence [of discussions] with a precise text, a clear schedule and endorsement by Parliament or we will radically change our strategy and we’ll turn against our own state by using all means available to us.”

He was alluding to suing the French state in the European Human Rights Court of Justice, in reference to current restrictions to New Caledonia’s electoral roll at provincial elections, as prescribed under the previous 1998 Nouméa Accord.

This is the criteria that limits the number of eligible voters at provincial elections to those born or residing before 1998 and their descendents.

“Mr President, we have nothing left to lose . . .  Because we can see the Republic has no more promise left for us,” Metzdorf added.

However, he appeared to remain optimistic: “With [pro-independence] UNI, we’ll find a point of equilibrium in the next few days.”

Moderate pro-independence leader Jean-Pierre Djaïwé, who belongs to the UNI (Union Nationale pour l’Indépendance, a gathering of PALIKA — Kanak Liberation Party — and UPM — Union Progressiste en Mélanésie), which broke away from the FLNKS and supported the Bougival text, said in Paris his aim was to “improve what can be improved”.

Financial backing needed
But other party leaders, like Philippe Dunoyer (from moderate pro-France Calédonie Ensemble), said any new agreement would remain meaningless without substantial French financial backing.

New Caledonia’s MP in the French Senate, Georges Naturel, made an outright call to Macron, asking him to be “lucid” and recognise that it is “impossible to implement” the 12 July 2026 agreement project within its original schedule.

Macron did not respond to the comments before departing the session.

After an initial sequence on Friday, marked by declarations by Macron and the main political parties in attendance, both pro-France and pro-independence, the session then split into workshops hosted by the French Ministry for Overseas, under the supervision of its Minister, Naïma Moutchou.

The talks are focusing on several aspects of the implementation of an earlier project agreement signed in July 2025.

The text, in its initial form, was mentioning the creation of a “State of New Caledonia” with its correlated “nationality” and a mechanism of gradual transfers of more powers from France to New Caledonia.

The specific themes discussed this month include the notions of the transfer of powers from France, self-determination, defence, security, external relations, the recognition of the indigenous Kanak identity and further financial assistance under a “refoundation pact” proposed by France for a total of 2.2 billion euros over a 5-year period.

Revised pact with ‘clarifications’
The final aim remains to arrive at a new document with “clarifications” to the initial Bougival pact signed in July 2025.

But the Bougival text has since faced several major obstacles in its implementation process.

This includes its outright rejection by the pro-independence FLNKS, while all other New Caledonian parties have decided to support the project at various levels.

FLNKS calls the July 2025 project a “lure of independence” because it does not address its demands for a short-term full sovereignty.

Another major obstacle was the division within the French Parliament, still faced with the absence of a clear majority, which has also delayed the endorsement of the French 2026 Appropriation Bill (budget).

Another objective of the talks is to have the revised project quickly endorsed by the French National Assembly (Lower House) in February and by the Senate (Upper House) mid-April and a final joint meeting of both House, under a “Congress” format to have the final document approved to modify the French Constitution.

If all those modifications eventuate, the next document would be renamed “Elyséee-Oudinot” and the original name of “Bougival” scrapped.

FLNKS reacts from Nouméa
Speaking on Sunday, FLNKS political bureau member and member of Union Calédonienne, Gilbert Tyuienon, denounced the Paris talks, saying this was not in line with the previous agreement signed under the name of “Nouméa Accord” in 1998, which paved the way for a decolonisation process for New Caledonia.

He said even if the Paris talks produced a new, revised document, it remained highly doubtful that it could be endorsed by French MPs “because President Macron doesn’t have a majority in Parliament”.

Another difficulty, he said, was that under the revised roadmap, New Caledonia’s provincial (local) elections could be postponed for the fourth time to sometime in September 2026.

But he pointed out that, when it gave its final green light to the former postponement to no later than 28 June 2026, the French Constitutional Council made it clear this should be the last time the crucial poll was rescheduled.

Back in Paris, talks were scheduled to continue on Monday and possibly conclude on another session supervised by Macron, should a new document emerge.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz