Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jeffrey Robertson, Associate Professor of Diplomatic Studies, Yonsei University

South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s visit to Australia this week comes at a critical point in the relationship between the countries.

Moon is the first world leader to visit Australia since the COVID pandemic began and the federal government shut the country’s borders.

The two countries have signed a billion-dollar weapons contract, which has dominated the headlines in Australia. But while this contract is significant, it is only a very small step – there is much more to do.

A relationship on the back burner

Australia and South Korea haven’t really paid attention to the relationship in recent years. It’s basically been ignored for at least a decade, if not longer.

The problem is, the relationship is a victim of its own success. Australia and South Korea have a highly complimentary trade relationship and there are no major problems. As a result, they’ve just let it linger.

This means they are starting from an empty chair in terms of improving the relationship, so this visit is an important first step.

In South Korea, not many people think about Australia. There isn’t an option for students to focus on Australia in high school or university and see Australia as a place to invest their time and efforts for future careers.

As a result, there are cohorts of students going into government and business with absolutely no knowledge of, or interest in, Australia.

If you compare this to Australia, there are students who are studying Korean or are focused on Korean studies for business, defence, and pop culture, of course. But Australia isn’t doing anything to promote itself in South Korea.

Read more:
Tensions rise on the Korean peninsula – and they are unlikely to recede any time soon

Finding common ground

There are some commonalities on which to build a stronger relationship. Both Australia and South Korea are mid-sized, secondary powers. This is important, as they are both facing similar challenges negotiating between major powers and with other regional powers.

They are also both advanced societies facing similar challenges on health care, the environment and governance. So, there are lots of areas where they can work together.

On strategic issues, the major defence contract announced this week is going to the South Korean defence giant Hanwha to build 30 self-propelled howitzers and 15 armoured ammunition resupply vehicles for the Australian army.

It’s part of a new memorandum of understanding on defence industry and materials cooperation, which comes after the previous agreement between the two nations lapsed a decade ago.

The Hanwha contract is certainly large, but there’s a big difference in the way South Koreans and Australians see the deal.

Australians believe it’s of great strategic consequence, tied to regional tensions and China’s rising influence. But South Koreans don’t see it that way. They are viewing it as a commercial transaction that has nothing to do with China at all.

In fact, if you look at the South Korean press – and particularly the Korean language press – it doesn’t mention China in relation to Moon’s trip to Australia. Rather, it is focused on securing resources – in particular urea – and maintaining those resource supplies.

South Korea’s future role in the region

This shows the countries are on fundamentally different pages when it comes to regional security, and this is going to become more of an issue in the future.

A lot of it depends on what happens in the South Korean presidential elections next year. If a conservative leader is elected, South Korea will be more willing to cooperate with Australia and the US, and play a larger role alongside the two of them (to a degree). This won’t happen if there’s a progressive administration.

But even if there’s a conservative leader, South Korea will never go as far as Australia in condemning China’s actions. It’s not in South Korea’s interests to do that. Not only does Seoul need China to help in its negotiations with North Korea, but South Korea’s largest businesses are heavily invested in China, and they won’t want to damage the relationship.

So, the long-term trend of South Korea’s position is not towards lining up with Australia and the US.

However, South Korea will be making some major decisions over the next ten years or so, and these include reassessing its relationship with both the US and China and potentially securing its own independent nuclear weapons capacity.

South Korea has been reassessing its relationship with the US for some time. One issue, for instance, is returning wartime operational command of South Korean troops from the United States Forces Korea to the South Korean military. This is a small step towards South Korea becoming more independent from the US.

There’s even talk in security circles of South Korea aiming for a neutral role in the region, becoming the Switzerland of North Asia. Ten years ago, this wasn’t even talked about.

Read more:
How a century-old dispute between Japan and South Korea threatens the global supply of smartphones

Where Australia fits in

South Korea doesn’t view Australia as an important actor in its decisions. But there’s an important role for them to play together in the region, which is why these strategic discussions are so vital. Australia needs to increase its voice in South Korean policy circles and make its opinions heard.

This problem goes back to the Howard years, when Australian foreign policy decisions basically just followed the US. During the Rudd years, there was some good collaboration between Australia and South Korea, but at the end of those administrations, this deteriorated somewhat.

Now, there’s an opportunity for Australia to do much more. For instance, it should open a formal Australian Studies Institute in South Korea, similar to the ones it has in China and Japan, and try to establish more joint university degrees programs between the countries.

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute could also do more work on South Korea and translate this into Korean. These sorts of things can raise the profile of Australia as an independent thinker and actor in the region. Importantly, it could also make it more visible in South Korean policy circles.

Jeffrey Robertson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. In a changing region, Australia’s relationship with South Korea has been ignored for too long – https://theconversation.com/in-a-changing-region-australias-relationship-with-south-korea-has-been-ignored-for-too-long-173737

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Caroline Gurvich, Associate professor and Clinical Neuropsychologist, Monash University

For nearly two-thirds of women, menopause comes with an undesirable change in memory.

Despite great progress in understanding the medical aspects of menopause – a natural part of life that occurs when a woman has not had a menstrual period for 12 months – we are only beginning to recognise the experience and impact of cognitive changes during menopause.

In most cases, it appears cognitive changes – that is, problems with thinking, reasoning or remembering – during menopause are subtle and possibly temporary. But for some women, these difficulties can negatively impact work productivity. And for others, they can raise concerns about developing dementia.

The Big M

Menopause marks the end of reproductive years. It can happen naturally, at an average age of 49 years, when the hairlike follicles in the ovaries are exhausted. Menopause can also happen surgically, with the removal of both ovaries (for example to reduce the risk of ovarian cancer).

The change from reproductive to postmenopausal years, referred to as “perimenopause” usually lasts four to ten years.

The symptoms of menopause, which can include vasomotor symptoms (hot flashes and night sweats), vaginal dryness, sleep disturbance, depression, anxiety and “brain fog” can span perimenopause and last for up to ten years.

What kind of foggy thinking?

Just over 60% of women report cognitive difficulties during their menopause transition.

Women describe difficulties remembering people’s names or finding the right word in conversation. Some describe difficulties with concentrating or making decisions. As discussed in our recent review, these “subjective cognitive difficulties” appear to be linked to performance on tests of memory, recall and processing.

Difficulties on tests of verbal memory (learning and remembering information new words you have heard), verbal fluency (quickly retrieving words from your memory) and attention are seen in perimenopausal women.

Women at work

While the degree of cognitive decline is subtle and performance generally remains within the normal limits of functioning, the symptoms can be bothersome for the individual. For many women, menopause coincides with the prime of their productive lives, when the load of caring for young children has eased and they’ve garnered experience and seniority in the workplace.

There is growing interest in the impact of menopausal symptoms in the workplace. Research suggests menopause symptoms can adversely affect work productivity and work satisfaction.

Contributing factors include poor concentration and poor memory. The retention of menopausal female workers is important, for women themselves, but also to ensure we continue to strive for workforce diversity within our modern workforce.

Read more:
Balancing work and fertility demands is not easy – but reproductive leave can help

What causes menopausal brain fog?

“Brain fog” is not a medical or psychological term, but a lay term that aptly describes the fogginess in thought experienced by many women during menopause.

Menopause related cognitive changes are not just age-related cognitive decline. Rather, fluctuating and eventual decline of ovarian hormone production associated with menopause is likely to play a key role.

Hormones produced by the ovaries, estradiol (a type of estrogen) and progesterone, are potent brain chemicals that are thought to protect the brain and enhance thinking and memory. The fluctuations and eventual loss of estradiol has been suggested to contribute to cognitive difficulties.

Cognitive symptoms can occur in the absence of other menopausal symptoms. This means other menopausal symptoms are not responsible for cognitive symptoms. However, menopause related depressive and anxiety symptoms, sleep disturbance and vasomotor symptoms may make cognitive symptoms worse.

Is there a link with Alzheimer’s disease?

Alzheimer’s disease is the most common form of dementia and being female is a risk factor. The greater longevity of women does not explain this increased risk.

Instead, the loss of estradiol associated with menopause has been suggested to play a role. Early menopause, such as surgical menopause before the age of 45 years, has been associated with an increased risk of dementia later in life as well as a faster rate of cognitive decline.

Because similar symptoms may present during menopause and the early stages of Alzheimer’s disease (forgetfulness and word-finding difficulties) perimenopausal women can become concerned about dementia.

Women should be reassured that dementia that begins before age 65 – called young onset dementia – is not common (unless there is a family history of early-onset dementia). Forgetfulness and other cognitive difficulties during the menopausal transition are common and a normal part of menopause.

Read more:
How to beat weight gain at menopause

What can help?

Although fluctuations and an eventual decline in estrogen play a role in cognitive difficulties, the use of hormone therapy does not appear to have a clear benefit on cognitive function (but evidence remains limited).

More research is needed to determine whether lifestyle factors can help menopausal brain fog. We do know exercise can improve cognition during midlife, mindfulness and meditation may be helpful.

At Monash University, we are currently conducting an online survey for women aged 45 to 60 to better understand cognitive symptoms during menopause.

Avoiding illicit drugs, prescription medication overuse, smoking and excessive alcohol may be protective. A diet that includes plant-based unprocessed foods (such as a Mediterranean diet), close social bonds and engagement, and a higher level of education have been broadly linked to better cognitive functioning during later life.

Caroline Gurvich receives funding from the NHMRC, Women’s Health Research Translation Network – Australian Health Research Alliance and the Rebecca Cooper Foundation.

Shalini Arunogiri receives funding from the NHMRC, and has previously received speaking honoraria from Gilead, Janssen, Servier and Camurus unrelated to this work.

Chen Zhu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘Brain fog’ during menopause is real – it can disrupt women’s work and spark dementia fears – https://theconversation.com/brain-fog-during-menopause-is-real-it-can-disrupt-womens-work-and-spark-dementia-fears-173150

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andréa S. Taschetto, Associate Professor, UNSW

Last month was Australia’s wettest November on record, and summer in Queensland and parts of New South Wales is also expected to be soggy for the second consecutive year. So why is our summer parade being rained on yet again?

Weather systems bring rain all the time. And from November to March, the monsoon occurs in northern Australia which adds to the wet conditions.

But this year, three climate phenomena also converged to drive the Big Wet over Australia’s eastern seaboard: a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, a positive Southern Annular Mode, and a La Niña.

So will this summer be the wettest and wildest on record for Australia’s southeast? It’s too early to say, but the prospect can’t be discounted.

La Niña: the sequel

You’ve probably heard about the La Niña that’s emerged in the Pacific Ocean for the second year in a row. This event often brings overcast conditions, above-average rainfall and cooler temperatures.

A La Niña occurs when the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become cooler than normal, due to an interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean.

Read more:
Explainer: El Niño and La Niña

During La Niña, atmospheric pressure increases in the east of the Pacific and lowers in the west. This pressure difference causes trade winds to strengthen. The Pacific waters north of Australia become warmer than normal, as the central and eastern Pacific cools.

The warm ocean around Australia increases moisture in the atmosphere and enhances the chance of rainfall for the northern and eastern parts of the country. It also increases the likelihood of tropical cyclones.

La Niña and its opposite drying phenomenon, El Niño, are together known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). When each occur, they generally develop during winter and spring, mature in early summer and finish by autumn.

We saw that autumn finish in March this year, when the tail end of the last La Niña brought extreme rain and floods to the NSW coast and other regions.

So why are we seeing it back so soon? It’s actually not uncommon for La Niña to occur in two consecutive years. In fact, since 1958, about half of La Niña events reoccurred the following year, as the below graph shows.

These repeat events are far more common for La Niña than El Niño. That’s because after an El Niño, strong air-sea interactions cause the equatorial waters of the Pacific to rapidly lose heat. These interactions are weaker during La Niña, meaning the Pacific sometimes retains cool water which enables a second La Niña to occur.

We saw this in the consecutive La Niña events of 2010-11 and 2011-12. The first of these was an extreme La Niña, bringing heavy rain and the devastating Brisbane floods.

La Niña is not acting alone

La Niña is not the only phenomenon driving the wet conditions. This year, after the wet autumn in NSW, an event known as a negative “Indian Ocean Dipole” (IOD) developed.

An active negative IOD tends to change wind patterns and rainfall conditions over Australia’s southeast during spring, setting the scene for more wet conditions in summer.

Adding to this, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has been in its positive phase for a few months. The SAM refers to the position of westerly winds in the mid-latitudes of the southern hemisphere.

When the SAM is in a positive phase, mid-latitude storms move poleward, away from Australia, as onshore winds to eastern Australia enhance. This increases moisture and rain to the continent’s southeast.

Read more:
La Niña will give us a wet summer. That’s great weather for mozzies

What about next year?

The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook shows an increased chance of rain this summer (January to March) over parts of Queensland and the NSW coast, but not much for the rest of Australia.

So while it’s unlikely to be the wettest ever summer in Australia overall, we can’t yet rule that out for the east coast. Safe to say, the climate conditions are ripe for extreme wet weather over the next few months.

But rest assured that a third consecutive La Niña, while possible next year, is unlikely. Since 1950, three consecutive La Niñas have occurred only twice: in 1973-75 and 1998-2000. These were preceded by extreme El Niño events, which tend to induce La Niña events.

And while the rain might disrupt your summer plans, it’s worth remembering that just three years ago southeast Australia was in the midst of severe drought. The successive La Niñas have brought water and soil moisture back to the Murray Darling Basin – and in that sense that’s a very good thing.

Read more:
Do La Niña’s rains mean boom or bust for Australian farmers?

Andréa S. Taschetto receives funding from the Australian Research Council. Andréa is a Chief Investigator of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and is affiliated with the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program.

Agus Santoso receives funding from CSIRO. Agus Santoso is a CSIRO adjunct science leader, co-project leader at the Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, associate investigator at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, and is affiliated with the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program.

– ref. Back so soon, La Niña? Here’s why we’re copping two soggy summers in a row – https://theconversation.com/back-so-soon-la-nina-heres-why-were-copping-two-soggy-summers-in-a-row-173684

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jessica Thorne, Astrophysics PhD Candidate, The University of Western Australia

When the most massive stars die, they collapse to form some of the densest objects known in the Universe: black holes. They are the “darkest” objects in the cosmos, as not even light can escape their incredibly strong gravity.

Because of this, it’s impossible to directly image black holes, making them mysterious and quite perplexing. But our new research has road-tested a way to spot some of the most voracious black holes of all, making it easier to find them buried deep in the hearts of distant galaxies.

Despite the name, not all black holes are black. While black holes come in many different sizes, the biggest ones are at the centres of galaxies, and are still growing in size.

These “supermassive” black holes can have the mass of up to a billion Suns. The black hole at the centre of our own Milky Way galaxy – called Sagittarius A*, whose discovery received the 2020 Nobel Prize in Physics – is fairly calm. But that isn’t the case for all supermassive black holes.

If material such as gas, dust or stars gets too close to a black hole, it gets sucked in by the enormous gravitational force. As it falls towards the black hole, it heats up and becomes incredibly bright.

The light produced by these “bright black holes” can span the entire electromagnetic spectrum, from X-rays to radio waves. Another name for the bright black holes at the centre of galaxies is “active galactic nuclei”, or AGN. They can shine trillions of times brighter than the Sun, and can sometimes even outshine all the stars in its galaxy.

The brightest black holes

Some AGN violently spew out matter via a jet, which travels millions of kilometres through space and can be seen by radio telescopes. Others produce “winds” at the centre of the galaxy, capable of pushing any gas (the fuel needed for stars to form) out of the galaxy.

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Like a spinning top: wobbling jets from a black hole that’s ‘feeding’ on a companion star

With such destructive forces in the middle of a galaxy, astronomers are certain this must have a big impact on the galaxy itself. We know most galaxies are slowly turning off their star formation processes, and AGN might be one of the culprits.

AGN can therefore not only help us to better understand elusive black holes, but studying them also teaches us about galaxies themselves.

Finding bright black holes

Depending on how much a black hole is “eating”, what galaxy it’s in, and the angle from which we can see it, AGN can look very different to one another. Even when looking at the same galaxy, one astronomer with an X-ray telescope may see it glow and discover an AGN, whereas another astronomer using a radio telescope might see nothing, if the AGN doesn’t happen to produce jets that are visible in the radio spectrum.

Because of this, it was thought they were all different objects, but by looking at the same objects with different telescopes astronomers discovered they had many similarities, and realised the benefits of using more of the electromagnetic spectrum to find them.

The relative brightness of a galaxy across different parts of the electromagnetic spectrum is called its “spectral energy distribution”. This can be used to measure how many stars are in a galaxy, how old they are, what they’re made of, and how much dust is blocking the light.

In our research, published today in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, we show that this technique can also be used to spot AGN. This means we can now measure not just the properties and histories of the stars in the galaxy, but also the brightness of its central black hole.

It’s not a simple thing to do. The difference between starlight and the light from an AGN is incredibly subtle, so it’s possible to confuse young stars for a bright black hole, and vice versa.

Here in Australia, astronomers have been using Australian telescopes to make 3D maps of galaxies in specific patches of the sky. These maps let us scour hundreds of thousands of galaxies, spanning 11 billion years of history, for possible AGN.

By applying our new method to 700,000 galaxies we identified and quantified more than 75,000 AGN to begin understanding how their number has evolved over time and how they have impacted their host galaxies. Astronomers think the number of AGN in the Universe is linked to the amount of star formation, which we know was almost ten times higher roughly 10 billion years ago. But until we can be certain we’ve identified all the AGN across cosmic time in our galaxy samples, we won’t know for sure.

À lire aussi :
The heaviest stellar black hole in our galaxy is even more massive than we thought

Right now, the astronomical community is still passionately debating the nature of active black holes. While we haven’t yet answered the questions needed to soothe the debate, we’re now one step closer to reliably being able to spot these fascinating objects within galaxies. And that’s an important step towards shedding more light on the mystery of black holes.

Jessica Thorne is supported by the Australian Government Research Traning Program (RTP) Scholarship.

Sabine Bellstedt receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Some black holes are anything but black – and we’ve found more than 75,000 of the brightest ones – https://theconversation.com/some-black-holes-are-anything-but-black-and-weve-found-more-than-75-000-of-the-brightest-ones-169938

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lena Waizenegger, Lecturer in Information Systems, Auckland University of Technology

Hands up if you’ve ever cursed, mocked or yelled at a chatbot. No surprise if you have. Those automated “helpers” – supposedly designed to make customer service smarter, faster and more efficient – can certainly be a source of frustration for sentient beings.

Interactions with chatbots have become increasingly common in our daily lives. But when asking for information or trying to solve a problem, we’re often annoyed when the chatbot either can’t understand or misinterprets our inquiry.

Even worse is when it advises us to contact the call centre or visit a web page, which defeats the purpose of using chatbots in the first place.

There are two main reasons for negative user experiences. First, organisations often present the chatbot as too “human”, leading to unrealistic expectations about the chatbot’s ability to understand human language, including nuanced questions and commands.

Second, many chatbots are rule-based and have a narrow knowledge base, which means grammatical and syntactical errors can throw them off and complex questions often can’t be answered, disappointing customers.

A two-way street

Although it’s easy to blame the chatbot for a miserable experience, we need to realise that, just as it takes two hands to clap, it takes both chatbot and customer to create a satisfactory interaction.

While previous studies have focused mainly on the chatbot, including why companies implement them and the design cues that characterise them, there hasn’t been much consideration of the customer’s role in these interactions.

Read more:
AI shop assistants: get ready for a world where you can’t tell humans and chatbots apart

In our latest research, we put the spotlight on how customers deal with chatbots and suggest ways to improve the experience.

We find that to create constructive, meaningful engagement with a chatbot, the actions and reactions of the customer and a willingness to make it work are as important as the chatbot’s own functionality.

Understanding chatbots

We identified six distinct types of human-chatbot interactions: socialising, collaborating, challenging, accommodating, committing, and redirecting.

These vary depending on who is driving the conversation (the chatbot or the customer), how “real” they perceive each other to be, their social cues, and the customer’s effort.

In the case of socialising, the chatbot tries to entertain the customer – for example, by telling jokes or trying to cheer them up if they detect a bad mood.

Read more:
Do chatbots have a role to play in suicide prevention?

Collaborating interactions are those conversations where both the chatbot and the customer work together on the customer’s needs, such as booking a flight or understanding the root cause of a problem and identifying solutions.

Both socialising and collaborating interactions involve smooth exchanges between the chatbot and customer and mostly lead to positive outcomes.

‘What’s the meaning of life?’

Accommodating interactions are ones where the customer is in the driver’s seat, helping the chatbot understand their needs by changing the way they phrase the question or statement, repeating their request or clarifying their intent.

On the flip side, a committing interaction sees the chatbot more engaged than the customer, trying to provide an answer to a question or solving a customer’s problem.

In those cases, chatbots often ask follow-up questions and provide additional information that might be relevant. These two types of interactions, however, often leave customers without the required information.

Read more:
Banking with a chatbot: a battle between convenience and security

In some cases, people see the novelty of chatbots as an open invitation to challenge them and see when it breaks. This type of interaction usually leads nowhere, since most chatbots aren’t trained for off-topic questions such as “do you want to marry me?” or “what is the meaning of life?”.

Lastly, when redirecting a customer, chatbots act more like a navigator, pointing to alternative information sources such as the company’s website, and don’t directly respond to inquiries. These interactions are very short and may not be an ideal outcome for the customer.

Three keys to success

Based on our research, we provide three tips for your next encounter with a chatbot:

• remember that a chatbot is not human and many chatbots can’t understand nuanced natural language, so try not to use complex sentences or provide too much information at once

• don’t give up too quickly – if the chatbot doesn’t understand your question or request the first time, try to use keywords, menu buttons (if available) or short sentences

• give it a second chance – chatbots acquires new “skills” over time, so it might now be able to solve a problem or answer a question it couldn’t two months ago.

Read more:
We invited an AI to debate its own ethics in the Oxford Union – what it said was startling

Organisational tips

The introduction of chatbots has redefined the way customers, employees and technology interact, and we encourage organisations to take a holistic view of their customer service systems when redesigning them.

Careful consideration should be given to the changing role of customer service employees who need to work with chatbots. Additionally, we recommend organisations:

• reimagine a customer service team – involve people in the redesign of customer service delivery through a mix of chatbots and actual employees

• treat chatbots like a new (digital) employee – spend time and effort extending their skills

• find the sweet spot for escalating an enquiry to a contact centre employee – some chatbots refer people too early (causing congestion), while others offer the option frustratingly late. Experiment to find the right timing

• monitor the chat interactions – learn how and what questions customers ask and extend your chatbot’s knowledge base accordingly.

The authors acknowledge the contribution of Thai Ha Nguyen in the preparation of this article and the original journal article on which it is based.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘Sorry, I don’t understand that’ – the trouble with chatbots and how to use them better – https://theconversation.com/sorry-i-dont-understand-that-the-trouble-with-chatbots-and-how-to-use-them-better-171665

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adam Deller, Associate Investigator, ARC Centre of Excellence for Gravitational Waves (OzGrav), and Associate Professor in Astrophysics, Swinburne University of Technology

For more than 100 years, Albert Einstein’s general theory of relativity has been our best description of how the force of gravity acts throughout the Universe.

General relativity is not only very accurate, but ask any astrophysicist about the theory and they’ll probably also describe it as “beautiful”. But it has a dark side too: a fundamental conflict with our other great physical theory, quantum mechanics.

Read more:
Explainer: Einstein’s Theory of General Relativity

General relativity works extremely well at large scales in the Universe, but quantum mechanics rules the microscopic realm of atoms and fundamental particles. To resolve this conflict, we need to see general relativity pushed to its limits: extremely intense gravitational forces at work on small scales.

We studied a pair of stars called the Double Pulsar which provide just such a situation. After 16 years of observations, we have found no cracks in Einstein’s theory.

Pulsars: nature’s gravity labs

In 2003, astronomers at the Parkes radio telescope in New South Wales discovered a double pulsar system 2,400 light years away that offers a perfect opportunity to study general relativity under extreme conditions.

To understand what makes this system so special, imagine a star 500,000 times as heavy as Earth, yet only 20 kilometres across. This ultra-dense “neutron star” spins 50 times a second, blasting out an intense beam of radio waves that our telescopes register as a faint blip every time it sweeps over Earth. There are more than 3,000 such “pulsars” in the Milky Way, but this one is unique because it whirls in an orbit around a similarly extreme companion star every 2.5 hours.

Read more:
Fifty years ago Jocelyn Bell discovered pulsars and changed our view of the universe

According to general relativity, the colossal accelerations in the Double Pulsar system strain the fabric of space-time, sending gravitational ripples away at the speed of light that slowly sap the system of orbital energy.

This slow loss of energy makes the stars’ orbit drift ever closer together. In 85 million years’ time, they are doomed to merge in a spectacular cosmic pile-up that will enrich the surroundings with a heady dose of precious metals.

We can watch this loss of energy by very carefully studying the blinking of the pulsars. Each star acts as a giant clock, precisely stabilised by its immense mass, “ticking” with every rotation as its radio beam sweeps past.

Using stars as clocks

Working with an international team of astronomers led by Michael Kramer of the Max Planck Institute for Radio Astronomy in Germany, we have used this “pulsar timing” technique to study the Double Pulsar ever since its discovery.

Adding in data from five other radio telescopes across the world, we modelled the precise arrival times of more than 20 billion of these clock ticks over a 16-year period.

To complete our model, we needed to know exactly how far the Double Pulsar is from Earth. To find this out, we turned to a global network of ten radio telescopes called the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA).

The VLBA has such high resolution it could spot a human hair 10km away! Using it, we were able to observe a tiny wobble in the apparent position of the Double Pulsar every year, which results from Earth’s motion around the Sun.

And because the size of the wobble depends on the distance to the source, we could show that the system is 2,400 light years from the Earth. This provided the last puzzle piece we needed to put Einstein to the test.

Finding Einstein’s fingerprints in our data

Combining these painstaking measurements allows us to precisely track the orbits of each pulsar. Our benchmark was Isaac Newton’s simpler model of gravity, which predated Einstein by several centuries: every deviation offered another test.

These “post-Newtonian” effects – things that are insignificant when considering an apple falling from a tree, but noticeable in more extreme conditions – can be compared against the predictions of general relativity and other theories of gravity.

One of these effects is the loss of energy due to gravitational waves described above. Another is the “Lense-Thirring effect” or “relativistic frame-dragging”, in which the spinning pulsars drag space-time itself around with them as they move.

Read more:
Warp factor: we’ve observed a spinning star that drags the very fabric of space and time

In total, we detected seven post-Newtonian effects, including some never seen before. Together, they give by far the best test so far of general relativity in strong gravitational fields.

After 16 long years, our observations proved to be amazingly consistent with Einstein’s general relativity, matching Einstein’s predictions to within 99.99%. None of the dozens of other gravitational theories proposed since 1915 can describe the motion of the Double Pulsar better!

With larger and more sensitive radio telescopes, and new analysis techniques, we could keep using the Double Pulsar to study gravity for another 85 million years. Eventually, however, the two stars will spiral together and merge.

This cataclysmic ending will itself offer one last opportunity, as the system throws off a burst of high-frequency gravitational waves. Such bursts from merging neutron stars in other galaxies have already been detected by the LIGO and Virgo gravitational-wave observatories, and those measurements provide a complementary test of general relativity under even more extreme conditions.

Armed with all these approaches, we are hopeful of eventually identifying a weakness in general relativity that can lead to an even better gravitational theory. But for now, Einstein still reigns supreme.

Adam Deller receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Richard Manchester has received funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. We counted 20 billion ticks of an extreme galactic clock to give Einstein’s theory of gravity its toughest test yet – https://theconversation.com/we-counted-20-billion-ticks-of-an-extreme-galactic-clock-to-give-einsteins-theory-of-gravity-its-toughest-test-yet-173157

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Malcolm Mackerras, Distinguished Fellow, PM Glynn Institute, Australian Catholic University

With the 2022 election promising to be close – the Morrison government has just a one-seat majority – could high-profile independents be a crucial factor in key seats?

From former ABC journalist Zoe Daniel in Goldstein to businesswoman Allegra Spender in Wentworth, swathes of locally-endorsed independent candidates are contesting high-profile seats, with a strong focus on climate change action.

Since the introduction of proportional representation for the Senate in 1949, we have become very accustomed to independents and minor parties being important players in the Senate. But what about the lower house?

How MPs get elected is important

The answer lies in the system used to elect candidates to the House of Representatives.

Proportional representation is good for minor parties and independents, but in the lower-house, our single-member electorates create and then reinforce two-party systems.

This is why, since 1910, the House of Representatives has been a two-party affair – and there is no reason to think this is fundamentally changing.

Nevertheless, it is quite possible the next parliament will be like the 16th and 43rd, where independent members played vital roles.

The 16th parliament

The 16th parliament was elected on September 21, 1940, and had three prime ministers: Bob Menzies (until August 1941), Arthur Fadden (from August to October 1941) and John Curtin (from October 1941).

Read more:
Farewell to 2021 in federal politics, the year of living in disappointment

Two independents played a key role here – Arthur Coles (representing the former electorate of Henty, Victoria) and Alexander Wilson (Wimmera, Victoria). Originally elected to support Menzies, they withdrew that support. The short-term effect was Fadden’s brief term, but in October 1941, they installed Curtin’s Labor government.

The next election, in 1943, produced landslide wins in both houses for John Curtin’s Labor Party. The two independents who had played such a critical role in the 16th parliament retained their seats but became so unimportant they soon resigned.

The 43rd parliament

The 43rd parliament was elected in August 2010. The prime ministers were Julia Gillard until June 2013, then Kevin Rudd until Labor’s defeat in September the same year.

The prime ministership was famously delivered to Gillard after independents Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor threw their support behind Labor.

The following election in September 2013 produced a landslide win in the House of Representatives election for Tony Abbott’s Liberal-National Coalition. The two independents – so critical in the 43rd parliament – did not seek election to the 44th.

The four key independent members – across the 16th and 43rd parliaments – represented conservative electorates, but put Labor prime ministers into office. That Coles, Wilson, Oakeshott and Windsor would become quite so important was not predicted, because neither the 16th nor the 43rd were forecast to be “hung”.

What about the 47th parliament?

This is where the present situation is so different. There is genuine talk of a hung parliament.

However, I still think Labor will likely win outright next year – essentially because Prime Minister Scott Morrison does not “get it” on women, climate change and integrity issues. If that is correct, then none of the independents will be of special importance.

Read more:
Is Morrison gaining a reputation for untrustworthiness? The answer could have serious implications for the election

However, I do think it is sensible to speculate on two possible alternative results, based on my reading of individual seats.

At the May 2019 election, the Coalition won 77 seats, Labor 68, independents 5 and the Greens winning the single seat of Melbourne.

One possible scenario in 2022 sees the Coalition winning 72 seats, Labor 71, the Greens two, and independents six. In that hung parliament, I would expect Morrison to remain prime minister.

A second possible scenario sees Labor winning 72 seats, the Coalition 71, the Greens two, and independents six. In that hung parliament, I would expect Labor leader Anthony Albanese to replace Morrison as prime minister.

Independents in 2022

So, who would be these six independents?

Based on my analysis, I predict Andrew Wilkie (Clark, Tasmania), Rebekha Sharkie (Mayo, SA), Zali Steggall (Warringah, NSW) and Bob Katter (Kennedy, Queensland) will be re-elected.

Two other key contests are difficult to predict.

Helen Haines is also hoping to be re-elected in Indi. However, there were only 2,816 votes between her and the Liberal candidate in 2019, and we are yet to know who her Liberal competitor is in 2022.

In Wentworth, Dave Sharma, the Liberal winner, was only 2,346 ahead of defeated independent Kerryn Phelps. In 2022, Spender – who is well-connected and enjoys a high profile in the community – is trying to unseat Sharma.

Bearing in mind 100,956 formal votes were cast in Indi and 89,754 in Wentworth, these seats are only held by very small majorities.

Serious speculation exists the independents may win in Goldstein (Daniel), Flinders (Despi O’Connor), Hume (Penny Ackery), Mackellar (Sophie Scamps) and North Sydney (Kylea Tink).

In 2019, the contests in those seats were between Liberal and Labor candidates, so this makes these contests very difficult to predict.

As we approach an election year, a sensible, educated guess is there will be about six (or at most seven) independents elected, in Clark, Kennedy, Mayo and Warringah, plus two or three others out of the seats identified above.

Nothing new here

This will of course matter to the composition of the 47th parliament, but I don’t think we are seeing a new phenomenon.

If the 47th parliament is hung, then history tells us the election for a 48th is likely to deliver a clear result to one side or the other. And the electoral system for the lower house means the two-party system is not going anywhere.

Malcolm Mackerras does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What’s going on with independent candidates and the federal election? – https://theconversation.com/whats-going-on-with-independent-candidates-and-the-federal-election-173587

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jennifer Martin, Professor of Medicine and Chair of Clinical Pharmacology, University of Newcastle

Since early 2021, the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) has allowed the sale of low-dose cannabidiol (CBD) preparations over the counter at Australian pharmacies. But you won’t find any at your local chemist.

The situation is different overseas. In the United States, although not approved at a federal level, it is possible to buy over-the-counter products such as sweets containing CBD in several states. In the United Kingdom, low-dose CBD oil can be sold as a dietary supplement, but not a medicine.

CBD is a chemical found in the cannabis plant. Like tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), also found in cannabis, it does have psychoactive effects. It can make people sleepy and affect the brain’s electrical signals. Unlike THC, it won’t get you “high” or induce other psychotic effects.

Getting a medicine to market in Australia, even a non-prescription one, requires extensive research and investment. It might be too much for small cannabis producers to take on, and a turn-off for big pharmaceutical companies if that investment is at the expense of upcoming blockbuster drugs. And the process might not be worth it if research shows the benefit of cannabinoids is small compared with other therapies.

Read more:
How does smoking marijuana affect academic performance? Two researchers explain how it can alter more than just moods

Setting high standards

In Australia, it became legal to purchase products containing low-dose (less than 150 milligrams a day) CBD over the counter after the TGA down-scheduled the substance from a Schedule 4 (prescription medicine) to a Schedule 3 (pharmacist-only medicine).

But so far, no product containing CBD has been approved by the Australian Register of Therapeutic Goods (ARTG), which is a requirement of pharmacist sale. ARTG approval means regulatory quality data on its safety, contaminants, microbial content, shelf-life and efficacy meet the TGA standards and is known and tested in regulatory grade laboratories.

The time and financial costs for drug development to meet the ARTG standards can be significant. Aspiring cannabis companies may not anticipate the difference between selling a product like cannabidiol compared to other products such as toys or clothing.

Expert clinical groups including physicians, psychiatrists, the Australian Medical Association and Australasian Society of Clinical and Experimental Pharmacologists and Toxicologists opposed the down-scheduling, citing the lack safety data, lack of efficacy data, issues with product labelling and the potential for interactions with prescription medicines.

In fact there is only one regulatory-grade CBD product approved for use in Australia, Epidyolex, which is approved for treating forms of severe childhood epilepsy, and only available on prescription. (A drug called Sativex is also approved that contains both CBD and THC.)

From a patient-safety perspective, regulating formulation and ensuring safety and quality data has met the TGA bar is imperative. Proving effectiveness is reasonable too. By down-scheduling and yet insisting on ARTG approval, the use of illicit CBD products may decrease – a win for population health if it transpires.

For industry, the TGA’s decision to down-schedule but require ARTG approval could be seen helpful to ensure quality and restrict supply. It has been estimated there is a potential for hundreds of millions of dollars of market in Australia and crop development is already underway. So, major investment into drug development by a CBD company could be financially rewarding, as long as the standards are met.

Read more:
Why it’s time to treat medicinal cannabis as an alternative therapy, not a pharmaceutical

What could low dose CBD be good for?

There are currently no recommended medical uses for low-dose CBD. Clinical trial data suggests a benefit of higher dose CBD for some children with a severe form of epilepsy who haven’t responded to other drugs. But it’s not clear whether the benefits could also have been explained by the fact patients also took Valium. And there were significant side effects reported that were higher in the CBD group.

With some high-profile proponents including basketballer Lauren Jackson, there are increasing calls in many countries for patients, particularly those with chronic pain, to legally use cannabinoids. There are also claims low-dose CBD could help people with anxiety, insomnia, arthritis or inflammatory issues, but this has yet to be backed by research into effectiveness or safety.

We don’t know whether any cannabis business has applied to the TGA to have its product registered and been rejected due to failures on the safety, efficacy and quality side.

However, due to cannabis’ complicated extraction, synthesis, combinations, drug interactions and side-effects profile, it seems unlikely many non-medical companies would have the facilities, systems and people available in Australia to be able to achieve the required standards.

So far, big pharmaceutical companies have not shown significant interest in low-dose CBD. They may not be sure low-dose drugs will be recommended by doctors, or be waiting for more research. They may not judge CBD to be a potential blockbuster compared with other therapies in their pipelines.

There are some local producers exporting cannabis and embarking on clinical trials. Federal health minister Greg Hunt has said Australia is “poised to become a recognised leader in the global supply of the highest-quality medicinal cannabis products”.

Read more:
Cannabis products are being sold as sleep remedies – here’s the evidence about their effectiveness

Coming to a chemist soon?

If we are using cannabis as a medicine, we should make the same demands we do of other medicines to protect patient safety. This requires good manufacturing practice, good laboratory standards of measurement, appropriate labelling, and sufficient clinical information for informed patient consent.

Medical professionals should know what they are prescribing or recommending and be able to refer to dose-response data for each compound. They need to know the pharmacology and the drug interactions, the evidence for their use in specific conditions and any negative effects.

They also need to understand the legal, professional and regulatory obligations placed on prescribers and dispensers. If products are being bought at the chemist, they may interfere with other drugs or foods. Companies who want to sell such products in Australia will need to focus on bringing their drug development into line with regulatory standards. Time will tell how many can do that.

J Martin is the Chief Investigator for the NHMRC funded Centre for Research Excellence, Australian Centre for Cannabinoids Research Excellence.J. Martin has a family member who is a shareholder in a cannabis start‐up company in Australia. This has been fully declared to the funding agency and is subject to a governance order from the University of Newcastle regarding management of this potential conflict.

Catherine Lucas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. It’s legal to buy over-the-counter cannabis in Australia – but it’s still a long way from your local chemist – https://theconversation.com/its-legal-to-buy-over-the-counter-cannabis-in-australia-but-its-still-a-long-way-from-your-local-chemist-172399

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sue-Ann Watson, Senior Research Fellow and Senior Curator (Queensland Museum), James Cook University

Think of the inhabitants of a coral reef, and chances are you’ll think of a giant clam, the largest aquatic mollusc on Earth at up to 250 kilograms and a metre long.

But despite its size and fame, the giant clam (Tridacna gigas) is in trouble. The tropical waters of the Indo-Pacific keep getting hotter due to climate change, and their shells and flesh are in demand. Some are already locally extinct.

Our new research out today has found these iconic megafauna face new threats like the marine heatwaves and acidifying oceans which come with climate change.

Is it game over? Not yet. We believe there are new ways we can manage clams on coral reefs, as well as creating new breeding programs designed to boost resilience to these threats and buy time while we transition to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions.

What’s been tried to save our iconic clams?

Despite their reputation as man-eaters – which came from exaggerated 19th century seafaring tales and Pacific Island legends – giant clams are gentle giants.

These charismatic animals are the only invertebrate of the Great 8 species, listed alongside manta rays and clownfish as a must-see for visitors to the Great Barrier Reef. Here, giant clams have been well protected from harvesting and snorkelers and divers can see eight of the world’s twelve giant clam species.

While giant clams are still common in Australian waters, in other areas they have not fared so well due to over-exploitation.

Since the late 1980s, breeding programs have helped rebuild over-exploited wild populations in the Pacific Islands, Southeast Asia and Japan. The success of breeding programs is not well reported, but we do know they are labour-intensive, often have high running costs and are limited in the area of coral reefs they can restock.

We need other methods to protect our giant clams from the looming new threats. If we save them, we can use their fame to help better protect coral reef habitat, which will save corals, fish and other invertebrates.

Read more:
Coral reefs are dying as climate change decimates ocean ecosystems vital to fish and humans

Why are giant clams under renewed threat?

Due to over-exploitation, nine giant clam species have long been included on the Red List of Threatened Species kept by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. All giant clams are protected under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora Appendices.

Rapid global climate change and pollution now pose major new threats to giant clams, while the slowly acidifying oceans now affect the range of all giant clam species from the Red Sea to the Pacific Ocean. Ocean acidification makes it harder for animals to build and maintain strong shells, particularly during their early lives.

Like corals, giant clams host symbiotic microalgae, using their photosynthesised energy to reach enormous sizes. But when stressed, these clams can expel their symbiotic microalgae and turn white. They bleach, just like corals.

How can we buy time for giant clams while we decarbonise?

Far and away the best biodiversity conservation strategy is to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions as soon as possible and achieve a stable climate below 1.5℃ warming. Keeping well below 1.5℃ warming will help save giant clams and coral reefs.

While we wait, we need to help clams adapt and endure. In our research, we brought together recent work from lab groups around the world exploring giant clam responses to climate change and pollution.

We now know high temperatures from global warming and marine heatwaves cause the most stress to giant clams in shallow waters, while ocean acidification is causing most impact – whether lethal or just damaging – = on giant clams in deeper waters.

Poor water quality and lower light levels caused by sediment-heavy run-off from cities and farms are also making life harder. This is compounded by the fact that suitable habitat for giant clams is being squeezed by climate change and pollution.

Read more:
5 major heatwaves in 30 years have turned the Great Barrier Reef into a bleached checkerboard

This information is useful, because it can help reef managers plan the best conservation strategies to help giant clams survive rapid climate change, such as by seeking out possible new habitat for giant clams and breeding more resilient individuals.

Aquaculture programs can help by getting baby clams used to slightly warmer, more acidic and darker waters during breeding and rearing before transplanting them out to the wild. They could also offer the clams symbiotic microalgae that are more tolerant to higher temperatures or light levels in early life.

We must also boost the profile of giant clams. If more people recognise them as flagship coral reef species, we will have a better chance of getting them the help they need. By protecting their existing habitat, valuing their tourism potential and deploying citizen science programs, we can make the plight of these remarkable creatures more widely known and buy them time.

Sue-Ann Watson has received funding from Ian Potter Foundation, Save Our Seas Foundation, and Malacological Society of Australia. She is Treasurer of the North Queensland branch of the Australian Marine Sciences Association.

Mei Lin Neo has received funding from National Parks Board, National Research Foundation Singapore, and Pew Fellows Program in Marine Conservation at The Pew Charitable Trusts.

– ref. Our iconic giant clams face new threats from warmer waters and acidic oceans – let’s buy them time – https://theconversation.com/our-iconic-giant-clams-face-new-threats-from-warmer-waters-and-acidic-oceans-lets-buy-them-time-172607

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Hurley, Policy Fellow, Mitchell Institute, Victoria University

International students are heading to Canada, the UK and the US in record numbers despite the pandemic, new research by the Mitchell Institute at Victoria University shows. But Australia and New Zealand continue to experience a dramatic drop in new international students.

Our report, Student, interrupted: international education and the pandemic, examined five major destinations for international students: Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the US.

We found the first waves of the pandemic caused a large fall in new international students. But countries that have opened to international students have rebounded strongly.

The research reveals a complex situation where the pandemic affected international students from around the world differently.

The numbers of new students from China are still below what they were pre-pandemic. But for some source countries, such as India and Nigeria, numbers are at record levels.

International education is an important part of how many countries manage investment in their education sector. The report highlights the renewed emphasis countries are placing on attracting international students.

Read more:
Why the international education crisis will linger long after students return to Australia

A fall for all and a rebound for some

Our report examined student visa data to understand the impact of the pandemic on prospective international students. Student visa data are a leading indicator, as most students normally need a visa before they can enrol.

The chart below shows the total numbers of new student visas each country granted in the 12 months to September in each year from 2018 to 2021. The pandemic resulted in new student numbers falling in all countries. But some have been more affected than others.

The UK has recovered the strongest. Its number of new international students is at record levels – 38% higher than pre-COVID.

Annual data can obscure the disruption caused by the pandemic. This is because countries applied different levels of restrictions throughout 2020 and 2021, altering normal enrolment patterns.

The chart below uses quarterly data to explore changes throughout 2020 and 2021. The September 2019 quarter is equal to 100 on the index used for the chart. Using seasonally adjusted data makes it possible to explore changes while controlling for peaks and troughs that usually occur throughout the year.

Read more:
Australia’s international education market share is shrinking fast. Recovery depends on unis offering students a better deal

This chart shows the depth of falls in new student visas issued in 2020 after the pandemic began. Australia, New Zealand, the UK and the US experienced falls greater than 80%. By the September 2021 quarter, Canada, the UK and the US had rebounded to record levels for the available data on student visas.

This could be good news for countries like Australia and New Zealand, which have lost students to other countries. The quick return to an upwards trend in Canada, the UK and the US suggests there is pent-up demand from students waiting for borders to open. If so, new international students should enrol in larger numbers when travel to Australia and New Zealand becomes more possible.

Read more:
Morrison’s opening of the door to international students leaves many in the sector blindsided and scrambling to catch up

What has been the impact by source country?

Events in students’s home countries will also influence decisions during a pandemic.

Our research looked at the impact of the pandemic on new international students by their country of origin.

The table below shows the changes in the number of new student visas for the largest source countries.

Nigeria has rebounded the strongest, driven largely by an increase in Nigerian students studying in the UK.

New international students from India have also increased by about 27% compared to pre-pandemic levels. Behind this increase lie shifts in student choice.

The number of Indian international students going to Australia fell by 62% in the 12 months to September 2021 compared to 2019. In contrast, new Indian international students to the UK more than doubled, jumping by 174%.

India has overtaken China as the largest source country of international students.

Read more:
Australia’s strategy to revive international education is right to aim for more diversity

What are the policy implications?

Analysis of international education can be a numbers game with discussion focusing on shifts in enrolments and the economic contribution of international students. But there are important policy implications.

For instance, there has been much debate about the influence of geopolitical tensions on international student choice. Our research suggests the reduction in Chinese international students is more likely due to administrative obstacles and travel restrictions.

International students also contribute greatly to total investment in education sectors. In Australia, fees from international students provide about 27% of total university revenue. Losing international students can have a big impact on education institutions, especially universities.

In a post-pandemic environment, governments are seeking to grow and foster their international education sectors.

In the US, the Biden administration announced a “renewed commitment to international education” in July 2021. The UK government is aiming for a 75% increase in the value of international education by 2030.

While the pandemic has had a massive impact on international education, the scene is set for a return to a highly competitive global market.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. International student numbers hit record highs in Canada, UK and US as falls continue in Australia and NZ – https://theconversation.com/international-student-numbers-hit-record-highs-in-canada-uk-and-us-as-falls-continue-in-australia-and-nz-173493

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Angel Zhong, Senior Lecturer in Finance, RMIT University

Buy now, pay later (BNPL) companies were among the stock market darlings of 2020 – and nowhere more than in Australia, the birthplace of pioneering companies Afterpay and Zip Co. There are 15 BNPL companies listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), more than any other exchange in the world.

But if you took a punt and bought shares in any of them over 2021, there’s a good chance you’ve lost money.

The state of the sector isn’t as bad, however, as suggested by news reports claiming stock have plunged an average of 80% in 2021. Those reports reflect calculations from peaks, mostly in February, that were part of a wider tech-stock bubble and were not sustainable.

A more realistic picture comes from comparing values from before that frenzy.

In the 12 months to November 30 2021, the 15 ASX-listed BNPL companies lost an average about 36% of their share value.

The best performers were Fatfish Group Ltd and Novatti Group, followed by Afterpay, whose share price was up about 15% from November 30 2020. (Afterpay is now Australia’s 15th most valuable stock, with a market capitalisation of about A$32 billion.)

The worst performers were Splitit and Laybuy Holdings, down almost 80%.

Read more:
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These numbers are less headline-grabbing than those reports of the whole sector falling 80%, but they still significant. They reflect some hard truths about the BNPL market.

Demand for these services isn’t growing as strongly as expected. Competition is stiff. Profitability is the exception. And greater regulation looms, with growing concerns about the buy now, pay later model encouraging customers – especially younger people – to get into debt.

A new line of credit

Credit services have been around for decades. Afterpay and its rivals revolutionised the market by developing digital technology to make it very easy to sign up (automating credit checks to make approval almost instantaneous), and devising a revenue model built on charging merchants a transaction surcharge and customers late fees.

By not charging interest payments, BNPL companies are not subject to the same regulation under the National Credit Code as credit providers such as Visa or American Express.

Read more:
What’s the difference between credit and debt? How Afterpay and other ‘BNPL’ providers skirt consumer laws

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission, which regulates financial services, has expressed concern about BNPL services being more likely to create “unhealthy spending behaviours”. Which is bad for consumers, but potentially good for profits.

Low profitability

Yet profitability in the sector has been surprisingly rare, despite stellar growth in BNPL user numbers and transaction values.

In Australia, the number of BNPL transactions increased by 90% between the 2017-18 and 2018-19 financial years, and by 43% between 2018-19 and 2019-20, according to ASIC.

But in the 2020-21 financial year, just two ASX-listed BNPL companies – Humm Group and Credit Intelligence – made a profit.

Afterpay’s revenue grew 78% to $924.7 million but it made a loss of $159.4 million (compared with $22.9 million the year before). Zip Co more than doubled sales revenue but reported a $653 million loss, compared with $19.94 million the previous financial year.

Contributing to this lack of profitability is not just competition between the BNPL companies but also from financial giants muscling into the market. For example, Commonwealth Bank launched its StepPay offering in March, while PayPal announced its Pay in 4 service in July.

Market mania

Despite the lack of profit, BNPL stocks benefited from the global surge in trading in tech stocks that followed market lows of April 2020. This reached fever pitch in February 2021 amid the Gamestop frenzy, when retail investors drove the price of the US-based video games retailer up 1,500%.

Read more:
GameStop: how Redditors played hedge funds for billions (and what might come next)

Among the (short-term) beneficiaries of this “irrational exuberance” were IOUpay. It listed on the ASX in October 2000 and its share price over the past decade has traded below $0.20. In February it rocketed to $0.85 – a 425% gain. Now it’s back down below $0.20.

Another BNPL company, Fatfish, went from $0.03 to $0.43 – a 1,400% gain. It is now back to about $0.05.

Regulatory pressures

What goes up must come down.

Finance studies show investor attention may temporarily pump up stock values, but prices will revert to fundamental levels in the longer term. This looks like the case with BNPL stocks.

Sensible investors should also be factoring in the potential for greater regulation of the market. Afterpay’s move into pubs – “beer now, pay later” – has again focused attention on concerns previously flagged by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and the 2018 Senate committee inquiry into credit and financial services targeted at Australians at risk of financial hardship.

In October, a Reserve Bank of Australia report concluded it would be in the public interest to remove BNPL provider rules that prevent merchants from charging customers for the surcharge paid by the merchants.

Read more:
How to know if your online shopping habit is a problem — and what to do if it is

Currently the cost of this surcharge is effectively spread among all customers. The Reserve Bank’s research suggests 60% of BNPL users would be put off if they had to explicitly pay this charge. While the central bank made no specific proposal, the federal government may choose to act on this in the future.

But it’s not all grim news for these companies. As in any market, some will succeed, others won’t. It depends on how they respond with new products, such as small business loans, partnership with banks, virtual BNPL cards that can be used anywhere, and rewards programs.

Angel Zhong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why ‘buy now, pay later’ stocks fell in 2021, and what’s in store – https://theconversation.com/why-buy-now-pay-later-stocks-fell-in-2021-and-whats-in-store-172683

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jodi McAlister, Lecturer in Writing, Literature and Culture, Deakin University

It is a visual language with which we are almost all familiar. It’s cold and snowing outside, but inside, next to a crackling fire, it’s warm and cosy. The tree is a deep green, festooned with fairy lights, glinting off the wrapping of the presents below. There is hot chocolate and sugar cookies and eggnog and candy canes, and the only things that can be heard are carols and the joyous laughter of our nearest and dearest.

This image of Christmas is, of course, vastly different to what we usually experience in Australia – extreme heat, seafood platters, white wine in the sun – but it is still one with which we are very familiar. It’s present in all our retail settings, with their fake snow and holly and Santas sweating in their suits.

And of course, it’s all over our media, in the increasingly ubiquitous Christmas romantic comedy film.

Counting down to Christmas

Christmas movies have a long history, dating back to the 1898 short film Santa Claus, but the Christmas rom-com really hit its stride in the 21st century.

Love Actually (2003), an ensemble film featuring multiple intertwined stories, is perhaps the best-known example. However, in terms of sheer quantity, it is difficult to look past the company that has made Christmas their core business: Hallmark.

Since 2009, the Hallmark Channel have run a seasonal block of programming called Countdown to Christmas, central to which are their Hallmark Christmas movies. Countdown to Christmas has become increasingly extravagant: in 2021, it began on October 22, and will feature a total of forty new movies, along with a (very) large number from previous years.

While Hallmark Christmas movies have been a cultural touchstone for many years in North America, that hasn’t been the case to the same extent in Australia, because we haven’t had widespread access to the flood of programming.

However, the advent and popularity of Netflix’s Hallmark-style Christmas movies, beginning with A Christmas Prince and Christmas Inheritance in 2017, have led to a growing familiarity and engagement with the Christmas romance genre from local audiences.

As a result, after many years with a dearth of local Christmas programming, Stan released A Sunburnt Christmas last year, their first Australian Christmas original film. This year, they have another original Australian Christmas offering in rom-com Christmas on the Farm, which premiered on December 1.

Christmas on the Farm is missing a key ingredient of the Hallmark Christmas romance: snow (in the Hallmark universe, the characters “can’t be waiting for the snow, there has to be snow”). However, it boasts a screenwriter with Hallmark credentials in Jennifer Notas Shapiro, and draws on plenty of other tropes of the Christmas rom-com.

What makes a Christmas rom-com?

Hallmark has a reputation for conservatism, and we cannot fail to note that for many years, their movies featured exclusively straight, white, middle-class characters falling in love (although they are slowly beginning to diversity their casts).

It is perhaps surprising, then, that Christmas rom-coms do not tend to be particularly religious. Instead, as S Brent Rodriguez-Plate argues, there’s a more secular reason for the season underpinning these films – “the power of family, true love, the meaning of home or the reconciliation of relationships”.

Christmas rom-coms thus have a particular aesthetic (snow, mistletoe, ugly-but-snuggly jumpers), and a particular set of core values: family, community, selflessness, kindness, love. They’re rarely overtly supernatural, but the Christmas setting often gives rise to a little bit of “Christmas magic” or a “Christmas miracle”, which pushes our protagonists towards embracing these values.

As a result, there are some very common plots, settings, and themes in the Christmas rom-com.

Home for the holidays

This plot is Hallmark’s bread and butter. One of our protagonists – usually the heroine – returns home for the holidays. This is often against her will: she’s usually a city-dwelling career woman, leaving behind a similarly career-driven boyfriend.

But going home for Christmas reveals to her that although she might be successful, she hasn’t been happy. With the help of family and/or community and almost always a handsome hometown hunk (usually dressed in flannel), she learns to slow down and embrace what really matters to her.

Small towns

Our heroine is almost exclusively returning home to a small town, often with a Christmassy name and one or more struggling local businesses – a bakery, an inn, a Christmas tree farm.

She must learn that work does not bring her joy, and that she needs to slow down and take stock. However, she nearly always finds herself using her corporate skills to re-energise and revive these businesses. For films which make it clear that we should not dream of labour, a surprising amount of attention is paid to stimulating the economy of small towns.

Christmas kingdoms

If our heroine is not going home for the holidays, she might find herself in a small, ambiguously European and unambiguously Christmassy kingdom. There, she’ll have a run-in with some local royalty, with whom she’ll swiftly fall in love.

Netflix has leaned into this plot extensively in their Christmas rom-coms – it’s the foundation of both the Christmas Prince (2017-19) and Princess Switch (2018-21) trilogies.

No Grinches allowed

This is arguably the defining characteristic of Christmas rom-coms: they are sincere. Any cynicism towards the season is swiftly quashed. It is only by embracing the genre’s key values that the happy ending of the rom-com can be reached. Our protagonists must fall in love not only with each other, but also with Christmas.

A happy ending

Christmas rom-coms always end happily, with our central couple in love and everyone having a very merry Christmas. There is a familiar pattern to them – one does not watch these films to be surprised.

Like many of the trappings of Christmas, watching these movies is a holiday ritual for many people, as comforting as putting on a Christmas jumper. They’re films to snuggle into, secure in the notion that for now, all’s right in the world.

Jodi McAlister does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. From Love Actually to Christmas On The Farm: how rom-coms became a festive season staple – https://theconversation.com/from-love-actually-to-christmas-on-the-farm-how-rom-coms-became-a-festive-season-staple-171819

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

A vaccine manufacturing facility will be built in Victoria to produce mRNA vaccines for future possible pandemics under an in-principle agreement between the federal government, the state government and global mRNA company Moderna.

This would increase Australia’s preparedness by providing priority access to vaccines, research and development, clinical trials and global supply chains.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison will announce the yet-to-be-finalised deal on Tuesday. The government says it means that in a pandemic 100 million mRNA vaccines could be produced in Australia annually, starting from 2024.

There would also be priority access to non-pandemic respiratory mRNA vaccines, including potential seasonal flu vaccines that would be produced at the facility.

mRNA technology is part of the next generation in advanced health care, and has been widely used in the COVID pandemic.

There has been competition between Victoria and NSW for the facility but Victoria put up the better proposition. The federal government had said it wanted to announce before the end of the year the capability to produce mRNA vaccines locally.

Health Minister Greg Hunt said the government looked forward to finalising the agreements with Moderna “as soon as possible”.

During the pandemic CSL manufactured the AstraZeneca vaccine, which uses older vaccine technology. However, only mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) are being used for booster doses in Australia.

Morrison said mRNA technology would play an important and growing role in response to future health issues. He said having sovereign on-shore mRNA technology was critical.

“This investment will continue to secure Australia’s future economic prosperity while protecting lives by providing access to world-leading mRNA vaccines made on Australian soil,” he said..

Read more:
Safety, side effects, allergies and doses. The COVID-19 Pfizer vaccine for 5-11 year olds explained

He linked the vaccine production into the government’s manufacturing strategy.

“Medical manufacturing is at the heart of our modern manufacturing initiative, creating jobs and securing Australia’s economic recovery, with more than a million Australians back working in manufacturing, the highest level since Labor let it fall in 2009.”

Hunt said that ATAGI’s recent recommendation on Moderna’s booster dose was a further testament to their advances in mRNA.

“Ensuring Moderna has a manufacturing presence here will deliver Australia priority access to products manufactured here in Australia, by Australians, for Australians, using the most cutting edge vaccination science available in the world today,” Hunt said.

Finance Minister Simon Birmingham said: “This investment will mean world-leading clinical trials, a strong local workforce and creating opportunities through supply chain activities, helping to drive Australia’s economy forward.”

“This is a further endorsement of Australia’s capacity to be a world-leader in the fields of health and medical research.”

Industry Minister Angus Taylor said the government was ensuring Australia maximised the long-term value of any investment in mRNA.

“Our approach is all about ensuring we can have access to, and are able to develop, the next generation of medicines for Australians, and to make sure that Australia’s biopharmaceutical sector and community is at the forefront of that”.

To promote the development of an mRNA sector, the government will invest up to $25 million from 2022-23 in the 2021 mRNA Clinical Trials Enabling Infrastructure Grant Opportunity.

Read more:
Omicron might evade antibodies – but that doesn’t mean you don’t have immunity

The will support medical research and innovation projects that leverage and enhance emerging technologies, platforms, equipment and infrastructure to conduct clinical trials of mRNA-based vaccines and therapeutics.

The vaccine announcement comes as the country takes further steps towards living with COVID, with the Queensland border opening on Monday, which saw people streaming into the state by road and air.

Also on Monday Western Australia premier Mark McGowan announced WA will open its border on February 5.

Both states, which have been relatively COVID-free, anticipate an influx of the disease once their borders are open.

Campaigning in Queensland is a priority for both Anthony Albanese and Morrison this week.

Meanwhile the federal government confirmed the opening of Australia’s international border to migrants and students will happen on Wednesday, after a fortnight’s delay while the nature and implications of the Omicron variant were studied.

Morrison said in a Monday night speech that Australia had “one of the lowest death rates in the world from COVID.

“Weighed against the OECD average performance, we’ve prevented the deaths of around 40,000 Australians,” he said.

Addressing the Sydney Institute, a conservative think tank, Morrison continued to hone his election pitch, appealing to voters to bank on experience.

“As 2021 recedes into the rear vision mirror, our government’s sights are set on the road ahead. We know it will take all the experience we have gained together through these past difficult years to secure Australia’s success,” he said.

“In the past 20 months, our operational tempo as a government has made us more experienced, more prepared and more resilient for the next set of challenges our nation faces,” Morrison said.

“And there will be many more in the years ahead.”

He admitted the government had not got everything right during the pandemic. “As a federal cabinet, we made the big calls, and by and large we got the balance right on those big calls.”

He also defended the national cabinet, which has often been fractious and much criticised. “The national cabinet is not perfect, but we have done better than almost any other federated system in the world.”

He said his message to “Team Australia is that we still have a job to do.

“Our goal should be to further develop and strengthen a spirit of partnership between government, the private sector and community sector as we face the challenges and opportunities of tomorrow.”

Morrison said the economy “is primed for growth. But securing our economic recovery in 2022 cannot be taken for granted.

“We must continue to get the fundamentals right – lower taxes, less regulation and sound public financial management.”

The next step in the government’s argument on its economic credentials will be when it presents the budget update on Thursday, which will show the bottom line much improved on what was anticipated when the budget was brought down.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. New facility to be built in Victoria to produce mRNA vaccines – https://theconversation.com/new-facility-to-be-built-in-victoria-to-produce-mrna-vaccines-173674

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

In this podcast Michelle Grattan speaks with Sean Kelly and Anne Tieran about where the political battle stands as we look to the 2022 federal election.

Kelly, a former staffer to then prime ministers Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd, has just written The Game: A Portrait of Scott Morrison. Anne Tieran, adjunct professor at Griffith University, has co-edited the newly-released book The Oxford Handbook of Australian Politics.

Kelly and Tiernan canvass a broad range of topics.

Will questions around the PM’s character be pushed aside by the economic debate? How potent will the climate issue be? How will well-funded independent candidates fare? What about the Greens’ ambitions? What’s happening in the vital state of Queensland? Will the women’s vote be especially significant this time? How would a hung parliament work out? How do voters feel after two years of COVID and what influence might this have?

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Sean Kelly and Anne Tiernan on election year – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-sean-kelly-and-anne-tiernan-on-election-year-173656

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Robie, Associate Editor, Pacific Journalism Review / Te Koakoa, Auckland University of Technology

“Loyalist” New Caledonians handed France the decisive victory in the third and final referendum on independence it wanted in Sunday’s vote.

But it was a hollow victory, with pro-independence Kanaks delivering Paris a massive rebuke for its three-decade decolonisation strategy.

The referendum is likely to be seen as a failure, a capture of the vote by settlers without the meaningful participation of the Indigenous Kanak people. Pacific nations are unlikely to accept this disenfranchising of Indigenous self-determination.

In the final results on Sunday night, 96.49% said “non” to independence and just 3.51% “oui”. This was a dramatic reversal of the narrow defeats in the two previous plebiscites in 2018 and 2020.

However, the negative vote in this final round was based on 43.9% turnout, in contrast to record 80%-plus turnouts in the two earlier votes. This casts the legitimacy of the vote in doubt, and is likely to inflame tensions.

One of the telling results in the referendum was in Tiendanite, the traditional home village of celebrated Kanak independence leader Jean-Marie Tjibaou. He negotiated the original Matignon Accord in 1988, which put an end to the bloodshed that erupted during the 1980s after a similar failed referendum on independence. In his village, it was apparently a total boycott, with not a single vote registered.

In the remote northern Belep islands, only 0.6% of residents cast a vote. On the island of Lifou in the mainly Kanak Loyalty Islands, some of the polling stations had no votes. In the Kanak strongholds of Canala and Hiènghene on the main island of Grande Terre, less than 2% of the population cast a vote.

Macron criticised for pressing ahead with vote

The result will no doubt be a huge headache for French President Emmanuel Macron, just months away from the French presidential elections next April. Critics are suggesting his insistence on pressing ahead with the referendum in defiance of the wide-ranging opposition could damage him politically.

Read more:
Why New Caledonia’s final independence vote could lead to instability and tarnish France’s image in the region

However, Macron hailed the result in Paris, saying,

Tonight, France is more beautiful because New Caledonia has decided to stay part of it.

He said a “period of transition” would begin to build a common project “respecting the dignity of everyone”.

Pro-independence Kanak parties had urged postponement of the referendum due to the COVID crisis in New Caledonia, and the fact the vote was not due until October 2022. The customary Kanak Senate, comprising traditional chiefs, had declared a mourning period of one year for the mainly Indigenous victims of the COVID surge in September that had infected more than 12,000 people and caused 280 deaths.

While neighbouring Vanuatu also called for the referendum to be postponed, the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) provided a ministerial monitoring team. The influential Melanesian Spearhead Group (comprised of Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, Fiji, Solomon Islands and New Caledonia’s independence coalition), refused to recognise the “unilateral” referendum, saying this was

a crucial time for Melanesian people in New Caledonia to decide their own future.

A coalition of Pacific civil society organisations and movement leaders joined the opposition and condemned Paris for “ignoring” the impact the health crisis had

on the ability of Kanaks to participate in the referendum and exercise their basic human right to self-determination.

A trio of pro-independence advocates had also travelled to New York last week with New Caledonia Congress president Roch Wamytan and declared at the United Nations that a plebiscite without Kanak participation had no legitimacy and the independence parties would not recognise the result.

Pro-independence leaders insist they will not negotiate with Paris until after the French presidential elections. They have also refused to see French Overseas Minister Sebastien Lecornu, who arrived in Noumea at the weekend. They regard the minister as pandering to the anti-independence leaders in the territory.

Why is New Caledonia so important to France?

Another referendum is now likely in mid-2023 to determine the territory’s future status within France, but with independence off the table.

Some of France’s overseas territories, such as French Polynesia, have considerably devolved local powers. It is believed New Caledonia may now be offered more local autonomy than it has.

New Caledonia is critically important to France’s projection of its Indo-Pacific economic and military power in the region, especially as a counterbalance to growing Chinese influence among independent Pacific countries. Its nickel mining industry and reserves, important for manufacturing stainless steel, batteries and mobile phones, and its maritime economic zone are important to Paris.

Ironically, France’s controversial loss of a lucrative submarine deal with Australia in favour of a nuclear sub partnership with the US and UK enhanced New Caledonia’s importance to Paris.

Read more:
Why the Australia-France submarine deal collapse was predictable

The governments in Australia and New Zealand have been cautious about the referendum, not commenting publicly on the vote. But a young Kanak feminist artist, Marylou Mahé, wrote an article widely published in New Zealand last weekend explaining why she and many others refused to take part in a vote considered “undemocratic and disrespectful” of Kanak culture.

As a young Kanak woman, my voice is often silenced, but I want to remind the world that we are here, we are standing, and we are acting for our future. The state’s spoken word may die tomorrow, but our right to recognition and self-determination never will.

David Robie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. New Caledonia votes to stay with France, but it’s a hollow victory that will only ratchet up tensions – https://theconversation.com/new-caledonia-votes-to-stay-with-france-but-its-a-hollow-victory-that-will-only-ratchet-up-tensions-173646

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Caitlin Curtis, Research fellow, The University of Queensland

The Australian Federal Police recently announced plans to use DNA samples collected at crime scenes to make predictions about potential suspects.

This technology, called forensic “DNA phenotyping”, can reveal a surprising and growing amount of highly personal information from the traces of DNA that we all leave behind, everywhere we go – including information about our gender, ancestry and appearance.

Queensland police have already used versions of this approach to identify a suspect and identify remains. Forensic services in Queensland and New South Wales have also investigated the use of predictive DNA.

This technology can reveal much more about a suspect than previous DNA forensics methods. But how does it work? What are the ethical issues? And what approaches are other countries around the world taking?

Read more:
DNA facial prediction could make protecting your privacy more difficult

How does it work?

The AFP plans to implement forensic DNA phenotyping based on an underlying technology called “massively parallel sequencing”.

Our genetic information is encoded in our DNA as long strings of four different base molecules, and sequencing is the process of “reading” the sequence of these bases.

Older DNA sequencing machines could only read one bit of DNA at a time, but current “massively parallel” machines can read more than six trillion DNA bases in a single run. This creates new possibilities for DNA analysis.

DNA forensics used to rely on a system that matched samples to ones in a criminal DNA database, and did not reveal much beyond identity. However, predictive DNA forensics can reveal things like physical appearance, gender and ancestry – regardless of whether people are in a database or not.

This makes it useful in missing persons cases and the investigation of unidentified remains. This method can also be used in criminal cases, mostly to exclude persons of interest.

The AFP plans to predict gender, “biogeographical ancestry”, eye colour and, in coming months, hair colour. Over the next decade they aim to include traits such as age, body mass index, and height, and even finer predictions for facial metrics such as distance between the eyes, eye, nose and ear shape, lip fullness, and cheek structure.

Are there any issues or ethical concerns?

DNA can reveal highly sensitive information about us. Beyond ancestry and externally visible characteristics, we can predict many other things including aspects of both physical and mental health.

It will be important to set clear boundaries around what can and can’t be predicted in these tests – and when and how they will be used. Despite some progress toward a privacy impact assessment, Australian forensic legislation does not currently provide any form of comprehensive regulation of forensic DNA phenotyping.

The highly sensitive nature of DNA data, and the difficulty in ever making it anonymous creates significant privacy concerns.

According to a 2020 government survey about public attitudes to privacy, most Australians are uncomfortable with the idea of their DNA data being collected.

Using DNA for forensics may also reduce public trust in the use of genomics for medical and other purposes.

Read more:
Dramatic advances in forensics expose the need for genetic data legislation

The AFP’s planned tests include biogeographical ancestry prediction. Even when not explicitly tested, DNA data is tightly linked to our ancestry.

One of the biggest risks with any DNA data is exacerbating or creating racial biases. This is especially the case in law enforcement, where specific groups of people may be targeted or stigmatised based on pre-existing biases.

In Australia, Indigenous legal experts report that not enough is being done to fully eradicate racism and unconscious bias within police. Concerns have been raised about other types of potential institutional racial profiling. A recent analysis by the ANU also indicated that 3 in 4 people held implicit negative or unconscious bias against Indigenous Australians.

Careful consideration, consultation, and clear regulatory safeguards need to be in place to ensure these methods are only used to exclude persons of interest rather than include or target specific groups.

DNA data also has inherent risks around misinterpretation. People put a lot of trust in DNA evidence, even though it often gives probabilistic findings which can be difficult to interpret.

What are other countries doing?

Predictive DNA forensics is a relatively new field, and countries across Europe have taken different approaches regarding how and when it should be used. A 2019 study across 24 European countries found ten had allowed the use of this technology for practical purposes, seven had not allowed it, and seven more had not yet made a clear determination on its use.

Germany allows the prediction of externally visible characteristics (including skin colour), but has decided biogeographical ancestry is simply too risky to be used.

The one exception to this is the state of Bavaria, where ancestry can be used to avert imminent danger, but not to investigate crimes that have already occurred.

A UK advisory panel made four recommendations last year. These include the need to clearly explain how the data is used, presenting ancestral and phenotypic data as probabilities so uncertainty can be evaluated, and clearly explaining how judgements would be made about when to use the technology and who would make the decision.

The VISAGE consortium of academics, police and justice institutions, from eight European countries, also produced a report of recommendations and concerns in 2020.

They urge careful consideration of the circumstances where DNA phenotyping should be used, and the definition of a “serious crime”. They also highlight the importance of a governing body with responsibility for deciding when and how the technology should be used.

Safeguarding public trust

The AFP press release mentions it is mindful of maintaining public trust, and has implemented privacy processes. Transparency and proportionate use will be crucial to keep the public on board as this technology is rolled out.

This is a rapidly evolving field and Australia needs to develop clear and coherent policy that is able to keep up with the pace of technological developments – and considers community concerns.

Caitlin Curtis receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC).

James Hereward does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. New technology lets police link DNA to appearance and ancestry – and it’s coming to Australia – https://theconversation.com/new-technology-lets-police-link-dna-to-appearance-and-ancestry-and-its-coming-to-australia-173334

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Nelson, Associate Professor of Economics, Griffith University

Coal is likely to be completely gone from Victoria’s electricity system by 2032 with most other parts of Australia not far behind, a report from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) declared last week.

The report, called the 2022 Integrated System Plan, confirmed what many of us in energy policy have long known: the end of coal is coming, and the pace may take some industries and governments by surprise.

The Integrated System Plan (ISP) is effectively the planning “blueprint” the market operator publishes to help industry and policy makers assess how Australia’s electricity system might evolve. It’s an incredibly important document for guiding where and when investment is needed to unlock new renewable resources to meet demand.

Given ISP’s prediction for the rapid closure of coal-fired power stations, it’s critical governments don’t stick their heads in the sand. Continuing to deny the impending end of coal-fired generation is simply not in the interest of coal workers and their communities, who urgently need support.

What is AEMO predicting?

The most important aspect of the ISP is that what used to be called the “step change” has now become the “central scenario”. For the first time, this central scenario is consistent with Australia’s commitment under the Paris Agreement and limiting global temperature rise to under 2℃.

The ISP is forecasting that huge volumes of coal will be retired in the next ten years, including all brown coal and two-thirds of black coal, and significant investments in new renewables and “firming technologies” (such as batteries, gas, and pumped hydro) will take their place.

Around 14 gigawatts (GW) of coal is now assumed to be exiting the National Electricity Market this decade – more than three times the amount of coal retirements the industry has announced.

Effectively, AEMO is saying (yet again) that the incumbent industry is likely to be caught by surprise by the speed of the transition.

It’s not just an explosion of renewables investment that AEMO predicts. Around 9GW of gas-fired generation and an extra 620GW hours of storage (provided by batteries or pumped hydro) will be required to provide backup generation capacity when solar and wind are unavailable.

Read more:
Coal plants are closing faster than expected. Governments can keep the exit orderly

Electricity demand is expected to surge out to 2050 and will double to at least 350 terrawatt hours. This includes from electric vehicles uptake, converting natural gas heating and hot water to electric in homes, and electrifying many industrial processes such as low-emissions steel and aluminium.

All these developments will require a major overhaul of the grid. The ISP states around A$12.5 billion in transmission spending needs to occur to unlock $29 billion in investment benefits.

Why is coal being left behind?

There are two main drivers for this significant substitution of coal for new technologies.

First, the cost of these technologies continues to fall rapidly and consumers are voting with their feet. Some of Australia’s largest and most iconic businesses are increasingly buying 100% of their energy from renewable resources, including Woolworths, BHP and Coles.

Read more:
Solar curtailment is emerging as a new challenge to overcome as Australia dashes for rooftop solar

Second, state governments have filled the void left by the lack of a nationally consistent energy and climate policy, and are now implementing ambitious policies to drive the uptake of renewable energy and firming.

The most ambitious of these policies is the NSW government’s 12GW energy roadmap, which effectively prepares for the retirement of ageing coal-fired power stations by facilitating investment in new capacity.

So what should governments be doing?

It is critical governments focus on a “just transition” to these new technologies, and provide support to communities and workers most impacted, such as those in the Hunter and Latrobe Valleys.

Structural adjustment policies such as job placements, relocation assistance, or financial support to transition local economies are vital to secure opportunities for these regions. Retraining ahead of closures will help workers transition to new or related industries.

Everyone who uses energy must be afforded access to the clean energy transition. At present, the biggest barrier to participating in the solar and battery revolution is owning your own home.

Governments have been absent from this important policy debate. Australian low-income and rental households should be prioritised in any future policies that support adoption of solar and battery storage.

Governments must also ensure the private sector (rather than consumers) wear the risk of poor investments. Governments are increasingly taking on very significant risk (on behalf of consumers) through underwriting renewable energy and firming investments of large multi-national energy businesses.

Some economists (including us) have been providing alternative models for governments to achieve the same objectives, but with greater focus on reducing risks to consumers.

Read more:
Economists back carbon price, say benefits of net-zero outweigh costs

Given the surge in households and businesses voluntarily buying renewable energy, it’s important consumers know what they’re getting. The Clean Energy Regulator is doing some interesting work in this space by developing an emissions and renewable energy transparency register as part of the national greenhouse and energy reporting framework.

If governments really wanted to help, they could introduce a carbon price. Such a policy is considered political poison, but a carbon price would result in us reaching this future in a much less costly and more orderly way.

The end of the coal age

The ISP is forecasting a better and cleaner future. Australia has great opportunities from moving beyond the coal age and into the age of efficient renewable energy, as we’re blessed with some of the best renewable resources on the planet

With global leaders increasingly focused on rapidly reducing emissions, we have a lot to gain through new industries, such as green hydrogen and mineral processing. Both major political parties at the national level have targets that don’t really push beyond what AEMO now thinks is the status quo.

The stone age didn’t end because of a lack of stones. And the coal age is ending despite an abundance of it – whether governments believe it or not.

Read more:
Labor’s 2030 climate target betters the Morrison government, but Australia must go much further, much faster

Tim Nelson is an Associate Professor of Economics at the Centre for Energy Economics and Policy Research at Griffith Universtiy and the EGM of Energy Markets at Iberdrola Australia.

Joel Gilmore is an Associate Professor at Griffith University and the GM, Energy Policy & Planning at Iberdrola Australia, that develops renewable projects and firming assets.

– ref. The end of coal is coming 3 times faster than expected. Governments must accept it and urgently support a ‘just transition’ – https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-coal-is-coming-3-times-faster-than-expected-governments-must-accept-it-and-urgently-support-a-just-transition-173591

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Helen Joanne Adam, Senior Lecturer in Literacy Education and Children’s Literature: Course Coordinator Master of Teaching (Primary), Edith Cowan University

Gifting children books can be about more than just giving them something to read. Books are portals to adventure, imagination and new experiences. Importantly, books can help children understand and appreciate themselves, and those around them.

Sadly, books normalising racial, cultural, family or gender diversity and diverse abilities are few and far between.

When children see characters and stories reflecting their background, they can develop a stronger sense of identity. Research also shows reading books with diverse characters and story-lines helps children develop a greater understanding and appreciation of people different to themselves.

Read more:
Children’s books must be diverse, or kids will grow up believing white is superior

Here are some suggestions of diverse picture books you could buy for kids this Christmas.

1. Books with diverse characters

A student teacher I know was tutoring a nine-year-old Muslim girl and decided to share with her a book called The Rainbow Hijab. When the girl saw the book, her eyes lit up with excitement and she turned to her tutor and said, “I didn’t know they made books about Muslim girls like me.”

No child should feel invisible in books. All children should be able to see themselves and people different to them portrayed in positive and inclusive ways.

The best books for children are those containing enjoyable story lines and reflecting diversity without preaching about it.

The Patchwork Bike by Maxine Beneba Clarke, illustrated by Van T. Rudd, is about children of African and Muslim background and the bike they build together from things they find around them. All children can relate to the joyful story of playing outside and being creative.

Other books containing relatable childhood stories are:

• Aunty’s Wedding, by Miranda Tapsell, illustrated by Joshua Tyler and Samantha Fry

• Maddie’s First Day by Penny Matthews, illustrated by Liz Annelli.

2. Books portraying diverse abilities

Almost 5% of children in Australia live with a severe disability, while nearly 8% have some level of disability. This number is likely higher as there are many children with undiagnosed complex needs, such as autism.

Two Mates, written and illustrated by Melanie Prewett is about a young Aboriginal boy and his non-Indigenous best mate who has spina bifida. The story focuses on their mateship and adventures rather than highlighting their differences. All children benefit from seeing diverse abilities being portrayed in such a positive way.

Two others books in which diverse abilities are normalised rather than highlighted are:

• Isaac and His Amazing Asperger Super Powers! written and illustrated by Melanie Walsh

• Boy by Phil Cummings, illustrated by Shane Devries.

3. Books portraying gender and family diversity

Many adults find selecting books for children challenging. My, and others’, research shows adults generally select children’s books based on what they loved when they were children.

This can be a problem, as older books often reflect outdated views of gender, families, diverse cultures and abilities.

For example, there are close to 48,000 single sex families in Australia. yet children from these families rarely see characters like them in books.

My Shadow is Pink, written and illustrated by Scott Stuart, is a rhyming book about a young gender-diverse child. This book beautifully explores his relationship with his father who helps him be proud of who he is.

Two other books that tell stories of gender or family diversity in supportive and informative ways are:

• Who’s Your Real Mum? by Bernadette Green, illustrated by Anna Zobel

• Love Makes a Family, written and illustrated by Sophie Beer.

4. Books challenging gender stereotypes

I Want to be a Superhero by Breanna Humes, illustrated by Ambelin Kwaymullina tells the story of a little girl who wants to be a superhero. Her Grandpa encourages and supports her as she discovers it is OK to dream big. It is important for children to see that gender or race should not define who you are or what you can do.

Two others books promoting positive messages that disrupt traditional gender stereotypes are:

• Me and my Boots by Penny Harrison, illustrated by Evie Barrow

• Want to Play Trucks? by Ann Stott, illustrated by Bob Graham.

5. Books with messages about social justice

These books shed light on important social justice issues through gentle informative stories.

• When We Say Black Lives Matter, written and illustrated by Maxine Beneba Clarke

• Somebody’s Land by Adam Goodes and Ellie Laing, illustrated by David Hardy

• Stories for Simon by Lisa Miranda Sarzin, illustrated by Lauren Briggs.

Other diverse books I simply must recommend

• The Proudest Blue by Ibtihaj Muhammed (as told to S. K. Ali), illustrated by Hatem Aly

• The Rainbow Hijab by Amran Abdi, illustrated by Nicola Davies

• Baby Business, written and illustrated by Jasmine Seymour

• Once There Was a Boy, written and illustrated by Dub Leffler.

Helen Joanne Adam receives funding from the Freilich Project for the Study of Bigotry. She is a Board Director for the Primary English Teaching Association of Australia and serves in a voluntary capacity on the book selection panel for the Dolly Parton Imagination Library Australia.

– ref. Buying picture books as Christmas presents? These stories with diverse characters can help kids develop empathy – https://theconversation.com/buying-picture-books-as-christmas-presents-these-stories-with-diverse-characters-can-help-kids-develop-empathy-171396

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Eleonora Leopardi, Lecturer in Clinical Education, University of Newcastle

Health-care professionals are often idealised, especially in recent times, as heroes. But meeting a physician can be an underwhelming experience.

Patients and families can find themselves on the receiving end of curt communications or seemingly uncaring attitudes. This is understandably disappointing. A worried, scared patient looks to the doctor not just as the person who will take the lead of the situation, but as someone who can understand their feelings and emotions.

The good news is doctors are trained to provide care and empathy. The bad news is the training doesn’t always make a difference in the long run: a “hidden curriculum” of medical education can explain this.

Read more:
Hospital emergency departments are under intense pressure. What to know before you go

Teaching students empathy and communication

In the 1990s, medical educators realised students’ training was too focused on biomedical sciences and did not take into account the experience of patients and their families. Most medical schools now invest considerable effort to make sure future doctors are well equipped to support their patients and be empathetic practitioners.

In the words of William Osler – who created the first residency program to get aspiring physicians out of the lecture theatre and bring them to the bedside:

The good physician treats the disease; the great physician treats the patient who has the disease.

This idea underpins most modern medical school curricula, with a focus on person-centred care. In our medical school we deliver an extensive communication skills curriculum across the five-year program. In the first two years, the training covers verbal communication and body language, making decisions with the patient, not for the patient, and listening actively. At the end of this initial training, we are confident that students are sensitive, empathetic, and caring.

The patient-centred approach has been a feature of medical training for several decades, so we should be seeing a system dominated by those trained in this way. But we’re not and unfortunately, it isn’t just veteran medicos who are the problem.

Learning to fit in

Young and vibrant new graduates lose at least some of their empathy as they progress through medical school and postgraduate training. A series of unwritten and often unintended consequences of education, the “hidden curriculum” is what students learn without anyone teaching them.

First coined in 1968 for school settings by educational scholar Philip Jackson, the phenomenon went on to be identified in all areas of education, including medical training.

After medical school, learners who enter a new environment start changing their views and their behaviours to align with those of the more senior members of the profession and “become part of the team”. Students who learn the unofficial rules of a clinical environment might be more easily accepted within the social group. But there are also negative consequences.

In the classroom, our students learn to pick up on cues from their patients, to use reflective listening and ask about their patients’ concerns. In the clinical environment, research shows students do not see these skills used by the more experienced clinicians around them or the supervisors they look up to and want to impress. Soon, good habits can be replaced by poorer behaviours. And, when the students become supervisors and mentors themselves, the cycle can continue.

Making empathy the norm

Empathetic, warm clinicians definitely exist. The challenge is to make these clinicians the norm rather than the exception and to change the environment so the hidden curriculum has a positive influence on students and graduates.

Researchers, educational institutions, health-care institutions and patients can create and maintain a clear cultural and organisational expectation for doctors to meet a minimum standard of communication skills.

Firstly, researchers can challenge assumptions about the way the health system prevents doctors from being empathetic. Time pressure is often cited as an excuse to cut short on human connection, but the evidence tells us meaningful, person-centred communication doesn’t take more time than doctor-centred communication in a consultation. And strong empathetic connections can not only improve patient outcomes but also give doctors greater job satisfaction.

Read more:
True grit – we measured it and found it protected doctors from career burnout

Rewarding the good

Academic health-care institutions such as teaching hospitals should improve their programs to support the doctors’ communication skills, and flood the system with empathetic doctors. They should also support new doctors so that work and study stress don’t cause burnout that can block empathy.

Patients should be encouraged to provide reviews of their doctors’ communication, and identify both positive and negative examples of care. This feedback should be kept in consideration by the health-care system and professional organisations such as the Australian Medical Council. Good communication and empathy should be explicitly rewarded, recognised in employment and promotion processes.

It is each doctor’s responsibility to be the best doctor they can be – but they can’t do it alone. We can all contribute to make the environment better, and help medical students hold onto their empathy as they become doctors.

Read more:
You should care about your doctor’s health, because it matters to yours

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Doctors are trained to be kind and empathetic – but a ‘hidden curriculum’ makes them forget on the job – https://theconversation.com/doctors-are-trained-to-be-kind-and-empathetic-but-a-hidden-curriculum-makes-them-forget-on-the-job-171942

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hannah McGlade, Associate professor, Curtin University

Only a year after the 46,000 year-old sacred Aboriginal site Juukan Gorge was destroyed by Rio Tinto, the West Australian Legislative Council in Perth will pass an Aboriginal Heritage Bill that puts the interests of mining companies above the wishes of Traditional Owners.

The Senate inquiry report into the destruction of Juukan Gorge “A way forward” called for a new national framework of Aboriginal heritage protection co-designed with Aboriginal people. It recommended the responsibility for Aboriginal heritage to be reverted to the minister for Aboriginal affairs.

The report also called for a review of the Native Title Act 1993 to address inequalities in the negotiating position of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples under the future act regime. The report’s authors were clear future work should recognise the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.

This new law ensures mining companies can still apply to damage or destroy Aboriginal sacred sites, the minister for Aboriginal affairs still has the final decision making role to approve the damage or destruction of heritage sites, and non-Aboriginal “proponents” (mining companies and developers), can appeal if the result is not in their favour. Aboriginal groups have no such right of appeal if the ruling is not in their favour.

Read more:
A history of destruction: why the WA Aboriginal cultural heritage bill will not prevent another Juukan Gorge-like disaster

Aboriginal land councils ignored

The ALP majority government led by Premier Mark McGowan disregarded state Aboriginal land councils who expressed the bill was “unacceptable”.

An emergency request to the United Nations Committee on the Elimination of Race Discrimination outlining how the law entrenches systemic racial discrimination against Aboriginal Traditional Owners, was also ignored.

Aboriginal land council leaders called for a co-designed process to allow for Traditional Owners to increase protection of heritage sites. This was reflected in an Open Letter of Concern signed by 150 Aboriginal cultural leaders and renowned Australians. This letter pointed out the bill was weighted in favour of mining and economic interests over Aboriginal heritage, and breached United Nations treaty law.

However, Aboriginal Affairs Minister Stephen Dawson argued the bill would give better protection for Aboriginal heritage and was the right thing for his government to do.

The main concern with the bill is the ongoing role of the minister to grant approval to mining companies and developers to damage and destroy heritage sites. The new act has replaced the old section 18 process which allowed the approval of more than 1,000 permissions by the state to approve the damage or destruction of Aboriginal heritage sites.

Rarely had the minister refused a section 18 application and protected a site.

Since the Aboriginal Heritage Act commenced in 1972, mining companies and developers have always relied on the Aboriginal Heritage Act – and the minister’s final decision making power – to lawfully damage or destroy heritage sites, as Rio Tinto did with Juukan Gorge.

This new act adopts (and misuses) the language of international human rights law. It does this by referencing Indigenous people must be given the opportunity to provide “free, prior and informed consent” to the damage of sites.

However the United Nations says the test of free, prior and informed consent from Indigenous peoples includes the ability to exercise self determination, including over things which affect their lands. Given Indigenous peoples are not free to say “no” to harm, damage or destruction of their sites, this principle is not met by this bill.

Read more:
What climate change activists can learn from First Nations campaigns against the fossil fuel industry

The state’s relationship with Aboriginal people

Western Australia has made few meaningful attempts to respect First Nations people in its constitutional arrangements or systems of governance.

In 2015 the WA parliament, following extensive consultations, amended the state’s constitution to acknowledge Aboriginal people were the traditional custodians.

When he was opposition leader, McGowan said this was a “long overdue […] act of genuine reconciliation designed to reflect the historical reality of Western Australia.”

This act of genuine reconciliation appears to have been forgotten by the McGowan government during the passage of the Aboriginal Heritage Act.

In 2021 soaring iron ore prices led to a huge $5.6 billion budget surplus – with WA outperforming all other states. A further $2.8 billion was projected for the next financial year and ongoing budget surplus forecast through 2024 -25.

This staggering amount of income from mining underlines the state’s conflict with Aboriginal people who wish to protect significant cultural sites, and might explain why the views of Aboriginal people are not being heard and respected.

Unlike most of Australia, Aboriginal people have never had any land rights legislation in Western Australia. The mining industry’s impact on the state was and continues to be very influential.

Read more:
When native title fails: First Nations people are turning to human rights law to keep access to cultural sites

We have a right to protect and preserve our lands

Last Friday and The Environmental Defenders Office with a group of First Nations people formally contacted the United Nations Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination about the urgent action needed to address WA’s new heritage act.

The United Nations Committee the same day formally contacted the Australian government to request they work with an expert body called the Expert Mechanism on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples to remedy the act.

What has happened in our state, to heritage lands and sacred sites, highlights our continued dispossession as peoples without recognised sovereignty and Treaty rights. Our peoples’ human rights are at the whim of a state acting with multinational mining interests in mind. Recent history shows the weakness and hypocrisy of the state’s reconciliation promise and symbolic constitutional recognition.

This reminds Aboriginal people we must continue to demand meaningful structural change and reform, as articulated in the Uluru Statement from the Heart’s claim for “Voice, Treaty and Truth”.

Substantive reforms, not hollow promises, are critical to Australia’s realisation of the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. This includes the urgent need to honour our right to protect and preserve our respective lands, and our ancient heritage and culture.

Hannah McGlade is a member of the United Nations Permanent Forum for Indigenous Issues.

– ref. WA’s new Aboriginal Heritage Act keeps mining interests ahead of the culture and wishes of Traditional Owners – https://theconversation.com/was-new-aboriginal-heritage-act-keeps-mining-interests-ahead-of-the-culture-and-wishes-of-traditional-owners-173239

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nathan Cooper, Associate Professor of Law, University of Waikato

New Zealand made two important climate commitments at the COP26 summit last month — to halve emissions by 2030 and to join the global methane pledge to cut methane emissions by at least 30% by 2030.

But what happens if these pledges are inadequate for the climate emergency we face? And how can we ensure future climate commitments are bold enough, and actually fully met, to bring about the transformation necessary to limit global warming to 1.5℃?

One response is climate litigation, the use of courts to compel governments and corporations to take greater action to mitigate climate change.

The number of climate-related court cases is increasing around the world. In some countries, it has achieved strong rulings, but in New Zealand, the courts recently pushed the responsibility back to policymakers.

New Zealand’s international pledges join obligations in domestic legislation, including the much vaunted Zero Carbon Act, which commits to reduce emissions (excluding methane from livestock) to net zero by 2050.

They also have to be matched against the Climate Change Response Act, which sets requirements around emissions budgets.

New Zealand’s pledge to cut domestic emissions by half by the end of this decade reflects the country’s revised commitment under the Paris Agreement, known as a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). It has already been criticised for its over-reliance on purchasing carbon credits from overseas.

Read more:
COP26: New Zealand’s new climate pledge is a step up, but not a ‘fair share’

The government’s commitment to “play its part” towards the global methane pledge may also be weaker than the promise suggests. It will likely mainly involve meeting its pre-existing target to cut methane emissions from livestock by 10% (on 2017 levels) by 2030.

The consequences of insufficient ambition globally will be felt at home. New Zealand’s natural environment will continue to degrade and climate instability become more severe.

Court action brings some progress

In various jurisdictions, climate litigation is achieving notable progress in environmental protection and forcing stronger action on emissions cuts. Just in 2021, court rulings in France, Australia and the Netherlands show the potential climate litigation has to bring significant change.

In May this year, in an action brought by eight children regarding plans to expand a coal mine, the Australian federal court agreed the government has a duty of care to protect young people from climate change. The court held that common law should impose responsibility on those who do harm through atmospheric pollution.

Read more:
In a landmark judgment, the Federal Court found the environment minister has a duty of care to young people

However, in New Zealand the courts recently declined to offer significant, let alone transformational, legal remedies for similar harm. They were not persuaded that using common law doctrines was suitable for this purpose. Instead, they signalled the response should come from appropriate regulation.

The case of Smith v Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd 2021 was the first in New Zealand to target corporates for their greenhouse gas emissions. Mike Smith, spokesperson for the Climate Change Iwi Group, brought a claim against seven New Zealand companies. The claim was based on three points: public nuisance, negligence and breach of duty of care.

The High Court struck out the public nuisance and negligence claims in March 2020. The case proceeded to the Court of Appeal regarding the novel duty of care claim.
But the court was not persuaded this novel duty of care should be created for the purpose of requiring a small number of emitters to comply with more onerous requirements than those imposed by statute.

The court said such private litigation, if successful, would be a costly and inefficient response to climate change nationally and arbitrary in its impact. Instead of using tort law, the Court of Appeal stated climate change “calls for a sophisticated regulatory response at a national level supported by international co-ordination”.

Litigation isn’t an ideal response to climate change

Meanwhile, Lawyers for Climate Action New Zealand (LCANZI) have begun a judicial review of the Climate Change Commission’s recommendations to government on carbon budgets and other measures to reduce emissions.

LCANZI’s statement of claim emphasises the need for domestic laws to be interpreted consistently with the Paris Agreement, the right to life (in the New Zealand Bill of Rights Act), Te Tiriti o Waitangi principles (in particular the exercise of rangatiratanga) and tikanga Māori.

The outcome of this case remains to be seen. But following the decision in Smith v Fonterra, it’s important to concede litigation isn’t an ideal response to the climate crisis and won’t guarantee success. An effective “sophisticated regulatory response” would be preferable.

Whatever happens in the LCANZI case, its emphasis on integrating international law, human rights, treaty obligations and tikanga Māori offers a vision of how we might pursue ambitious climate change action.

The challenge will be to design regulation that is both robust enough to ensure all obligations (international and domestic) are sufficiently ambitious to achieve environmental protection and sophisticated enough to articulate the unique context of Aotearoa. But in the face of a climate emergency, it’s worth trying.

Nathan Cooper does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Courts around the world have made strong climate rulings — not so in New Zealand – https://theconversation.com/courts-around-the-world-have-made-strong-climate-rulings-not-so-in-new-zealand-173485

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susie Emery, Lecturer, University of South Australia

Women account for almost 50% of gamers in Australia, but the nuanced and varied experiences of mothers who game are lost among these statistics.

A 2020 global survey of mothers found more than 70% of mothers play games daily on consoles, smartphones and computers. The report highlighted the commercial benefits of marketing games to mothers – but did little to address the social factors that influence mothers’ gaming behaviours.

We think societal expectations and gendered perceptions of the mother’s role in the home may be an impediment for mothers wanting to game, and the reason why research in this area is scant.

But understanding what motivates mothers or deters them from gaming is important for comprehending how family dynamics are structured or negotiated in the modern digital home.

What a mother should be

In Australia, mothers continue to provide the majority share of household labour and care to children, often balancing these responsibilities with paid work. Time for gaming may be a luxury few mothers can afford.

The first and only known longitudinal study to research mothers who play computer games was conducted in 2009. The three year study involved analysing representations of gaming mothers in advertisements, news articles and blogs, and by interviewing mothers and observing their gaming practices in the home.

The study highlighted discourse related to gaming mothers is entrenched in gendered tropes about parenting and expectations about what a mother should be. Mothers are portrayed in popular culture as “domestic guardians” who should devote their time to the family instead of “self-indulgent” gaming.

This ideology is evident in the gaming industry today, where a game is said to have passed the “mum test” if it has a soft and feminised design.

Read more:
Debunking one of the biggest stereotypes about women in the gaming community

A decade later and limited or conflicting demands on a mother’s time remains an issue for those wanting to game. Even in households where gaming is an accepted part of family life, the games mothers play may be influenced by expectations about their role. Fast-paced games such as PUBG (Player Unknown’s Battlegrounds), Among Us, and Bloodborne, do not allow players to pause or save progress in the game, which means they are not conducive with child caring duties.

Managing time for gaming

Findings from a recent doctoral study (by one of the authors) about digital mothering suggests mothers’ gaming practices are associated with how they perceive their role in the home. In-depth interviews were carried out in the homes of 17 mothers in South Australia to uncover their experiences as both users of digital media, and as facilitators of children’s use.

Time constraints were identified as an issue that limits mothers’ opportunities for game play and implied a possible loss or relinquishing of a previously inhabited gamer identity:

My friend and I used to play Crash Bandicoot and Raiders of the Lost Ark like addicts before we had children, we were terrible […] But this was a long time ago, I just don’t have time anymore.

Several mothers mentioned playing games on a casual basis on their mobile phones, especially word games with friends. Unlike the more immersive experience of gaming on consoles, participants were able to dip in and out of mobile games at their convenience.

Mothers would, on the one hand, dismiss their gaming as nothing of consequence but, on the other, implied gaming is justified once other responsibilities have been attended to. This “time-filler” gaming profile is more common among female players – and especially those who live with children.

Guilt about the time spent gaming was associated with how a mother should and shouldn’t act. One participant explained the need to self-regulate her mobile gaming to protect its impact on her family:

Those real-time games are terrible. They play with your mind once you start. You realise you’ve been playing it for two hours and not got anything else done. It did become really addictive so I’ve learnt not to get caught up with it now.

Only one mother in the research study self-identified as a “hardcore gamer”, and described how she played action role-playing games, like Fallout 4 “daily and all day”.

Rather than defending or downplaying her gaming, she embraced gaming as an integral and valuable part of family life that strengthens her relationship with her children and husband:

I get frustrated sometimes when I hear parents, mothers in particular, complain about Minecraft and I just think ‘if you would spend a little bit of time trying to understand it you would know there is lot of really good potential there’.

Read more:
How parents can foster ‘positive creativity’ in kids to make the world a better place

Unmasking mother’s game play

Industry statistics show mothers enjoy gaming – or at least they do if given the time to do so. Yet, mothers’ participation in game culture is often underestimated and overlooked in academia.

To unmask mothers’ experiences of gaming we need to explore more fully how structural forces, such as stereotypical assumptions about mothering, may influence their perceptions and enjoyment of gaming.

We know when gaming is shared with other household members, family cohesion is enhanced. There are also significant health benefits from playing games, including a reduction in stress and anxiety levels, conditions mothers are all too familiar with.

Exploring mothers’ gaming practices in more depth will also increase the visibility and representation of mothers in gaming culture and in game studies research.

But it’s not just about research, it’s also about what happens in the home. When you’re compiling your Christmas list for Mum this year, maybe give the novelty slippers a miss and think instead about giving her uninterrupted time to play – or you could offer to be her player two.

Susie is an International Ambassador for Women in Games.

Fae Heaselgrave’s PhD research was supported by an Australian Government Research Training Program scholarship.

– ref. Half of Australia’s gamers are women, but we know very little about mothers who game – https://theconversation.com/half-of-australias-gamers-are-women-but-we-know-very-little-about-mothers-who-game-172498

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ben Singh, Research fellow, University of South Australia

Wearable fitness trackers will be on many Christmas shopping lists this year, with a vast range of devices (and an ever-increasing number of features) hitting the market just in time for the festive season.

But what does the latest research say about how effective they are?

Fitness trackers are trendy

Currently, about one in five Australians own one of these wearables, and about a quarter use a mobile app or website to monitor their activity levels and health. And sales are predicted to grow over the next five years.

The landscape of the market is fast changing. For years, Fitbit and Garmin were the market leaders. But Australians now favour Apple watches (used by 43% of people owning a wearable tracker) over Fitbit (35%) and Samsung watches (16%) over Garmin (13%).

So far fitness trackers have mostly been taken up by younger people: about one in four Australians aged 20–40 report using one, compared to just one in ten people aged 60 or older.

However, manufacturers are on a mission to change this, by adding features that allow users to monitor not just their fitness activity, but several other aspect of their health.

For instance, recent wearable models from all the leading manufacturers claim to measure a host of medical metrics, such as blood pressure, body fat levels, the amount of oxygen in your blood, your heart activity, and even identify when you’ve taken a fall (with a feature that lets you call for help).

Read more:
Do we really need to walk 10,000 steps a day?

Wearables get the basics right

Firstly, a multitude of studies have looked at the accuracy of wearable fitness trackers for measurements related to physical activity, including step counts, heart rate and number of calories burned. They show step counts are generally highly accurate, while heart rate and calories burned are reasonably accurate.

When study participants wear two different activity trackers at the same time, the numbers of steps, minutes of activity and calories burned aren’t exactly the same, but they are correlated. That is, when one goes up so does the other, and vice versa. This suggests they are generally capturing the same information, albeit with slightly different sensitivity.

Evidence for sleep tracking is a little patchier. Wearables are pretty good at detecting bed time, wake time and overall sleep duration. But estimates for more technical metrics such as the “phases” of sleep – such as REM sleep – don’t marry with medical-grade measurements taken by polysomnography.

Sometimes wearables go beyond the basics

In a 2019 Apple-sponsored study reported in the New England Medical Journal, 419,297 participants without known atrial fibrillation wore an Apple Watch. During the study, 2,161 of them received an irregular pulse notification, of which 84% were subsequently confirmed to have atrial fibrillation (an irregular and rapid heart beat).

This is a serious medical condition that requires treatment to prevent stroke.
The ability to alert users of a potential undiagnosed cardiac condition seems highly beneficial. Although, others have cautioned the Apple Watch can also miss cases of undiagnosed atrial fibrillation – which emphasises the importance of never relying on wearable metrics for medical purposes.

Another study published in September reaffirmed the Apple watch’s electrocardiogram feature can detect serious cardiac irregularities. A similar study is currently underway to evaluate Fitbit’s electrocardiogram feature, but results aren’t out yet.

Building a more advanced tracker

In terms of detecting falls (which would be very useful for older individuals), scientists are developing wrist-worn devices that can accurately do this using accelerometer technology, which is the same underlying technology already used by wearables. So the technology is there, but at this point it’s unclear whether the promising lab results will translate to accuracy in commercial wearables.

Meanwhile, the newest Samsung watch claims to measure blood pressure and body composition (such as fat mass, muscle mass and bone mass). Body composition is measured using a method called bioelectric impedance analysis.

When the user touches the watch with their opposite hand, it passes a weak electrical signal through the body and back to the watch. The body composition is then calculated using algorithms and the manually entered body weight.

At this stage, there’s no data in the scientific literature to support the accuracy of these measurements, so we’d recommend taking them with a pinch of salt. Then again, only a few years ago the same criticism was made of electrocardiogram measurements from wearables – and these have subsequently shown to have merit.

Evidence says your effort will pay off

So that’s the run down on accuracy, but do fitness trackers make a difference in people’s lives?

Hundreds of studies have used wearable activity trackers to try to increase physical activity in various general and patient populations. Meta-analyses (which involve combining results of multiple studies) suggest the devices are effective in helping people become more physically active and lose weight.

A meta-analysis of 35 studies in various chronic disease populations suggested users added around 2,100 additional steps per day after they started using a wearable activity tracker. Other meta-analyses have suggested weight loss in the order of 1 to 1.5 kilograms, on average, over the duration of the studies (with the duration varying between studies).

And studies that look specifically at step-tracking over long periods suggest the benefits gained are still present (although smaller) up to four years after the device was first worn.

Accuracy and effectiveness aside, wearable users typically report being satisfied with their devices. So if you happen to get one in your Christmas stocking this year, keep in mind it could help with those New Year’s fitness resolutions.

Read more:
Health apps track vital health stats for millions of people, but doctors aren’t using the data – here’s how it could reduce costs and patient outcomes

Carol Maher receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, the Medical Research Future Fund, the National Heart Foundation, the South Australian Department for Innovation and Skills, the South Australian Department for Education, Healthway and Hunter New England Local Health District.

Ben Singh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why wearable fitness trackers aren’t as useless as some make them out to be – https://theconversation.com/why-wearable-fitness-trackers-arent-as-useless-as-some-make-them-out-to-be-173419

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Frank Bongiorno, Professor of History, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National University

Some will recall it as 2021. For more, it will be Year 2 of COVID. Either way, it will have been a time of disappointment for many. And the nation’s politicians need to bear a large share of the responsibility for that feeling.

It’s easy to imagine a different scenario. As 2020 ended, there were disappointments, too, with parts of Sydney in lockdown. But most imagined that, with vaccines on the way, our future would be brighter.

While there had been a tragic second wave of infections in Victoria that reflected poorly on its Labor government, the country’s decision-makers had taken advantage of Australia being an island nation, imposed external and internal border controls, and established an effective tracing system.

There had been some failures, and several hundred fatalities, and many Australians abroad were treated harshly. But governments succeeded in their primary duty of preserving our safety, and they seemed to have done well in propping up the economy in tough circumstances.

What an opportunity this scenario offered!

An efficient vaccination program delivered rapidly in the first half of 2021, targeting vulnerable groups first, then extending quickly to the rest, would have provided substantial protection from COVID’s Delta strain when it arrived. The construction of quarantine facilities could have allowed the safe return of Australians stranded overseas.

Instead, the federal government mismanaged vaccine procurement, muddled its messaging, did nothing much about quarantine and stuffed up the “rollout” – both of Australia’s national dictionaries embraced “strollout” as their Word of the Year.

Millions unnecessarily spent much of 2021 locked down. Some paid with their lives, and others with their health, jobs and businesses. The economy has suffered another multi-billion-dollar shock.

It would be easy to blame the Morrison government. After all, its indolence and squalor became increasingly plain during 2021.

But there is something more alarming at the heart of these failures: a basic frailty in national government. So energetic when chasing down “welfare cheats” and in persecuting whistleblowers, Australia’s federal government is just no longer very good at the hands-on delivery of anything of serious complexity.

Read more:
As Australia’s vaccination bungle becomes clear, Morrison’s political pain is only just beginning

The JobKeeper scheme acclaimed as a national saviour in 2020 was revealed this year as an efficient scheme whereby the already filthy rich could become even filthier and richer.

Unleashed in haste, it lacked basic mechanisms for checking whether those claiming its benefits had actually suffered their anticipated losses. The result has been an unprecedented looting of the country’s treasury, all within the law.

JobKeeper contributed to a larger narrative that has gathered a hold: that the Morrison government lacks honesty and integrity. Its resistance to creating a proper anti-corruption commission is widely seen as prima facie evidence of its own fear of what one would find.

Scott Morrison instead raises the furphy of ICAC’s treatment of the former New South Wales premier, Gladys Berejiklian, as an objection to a federal body on anything like that model.

Australian conservatives and some on the Labor side, too, have long resolutely opposed the concept of a bill of rights, yet now we find just one right being elevated above others – religious freedom – which in the hands of the government amounts to an enhanced right to discriminate against sexual minorities.

Read more:
New religious discrimination bill will cause damage to Australian society that will be difficult to heal

Predictably, its effort has done little more than draw adverse attention to the expansive right that already exists to do just that in the Sex Discrimination Act, the result of lobbying of the Hawke Labor government by the churches.

The Morrison government is certainly interested in accountability, but not in the accountability of politicians to voters. Its preferred version is the accountability of the people to their political masters. So, far from protecting whistleblowers against government illegality and wrongdoing, it prosecutes them with vigour. It sought to impose US Republican-inspired voter ID laws to deal with a problem that only it seems to believe exists.

And it wants to make it easier for politicians to sue members of the public who say objectionable things about them on social media.

The same politicians who tell you that they believe resolutely in protecting women’s right to be free of sexual harassment maintain a workplace in Canberra, with its adjuncts in their electorate offices, that would disgrace the most rancid feudal regime.

Women have been harassed and even assaulted with impunity. Ministers have slept with staffers. Staffers have filmed themselves masturbating on desks. There is no recourse for the victims of this regime unless, like former Liberal staffers Brittany Higgins and Rachelle Miller, they go to the media.

The reckoning in these matters has arrived, but the prime minister repeatedly displayed his inability to understand what is at stake. On one occasion, he began a media conference expressing his sympathies with the plight of women but ended up issuing a thinly veiled threat to the female journalist most prominent in reporting of the issue.

Which brings us to Morrison himself.

The idea that he routinely lies now clings to him like a politician to a freebie. The extraordinary attack on him by French President Emmanuel Macron, over the mismanagement of the submarine contract and the AUKUS agreement, confirmed a sense of Morrison as a small-time Sydney politician morally and intellectually out of his depth, and lacking in the necessary gravitas or judgment to deal with complex international affairs and major world leaders.

It seemed odd, at the beginning of 2021, that we still didn’t have a single book about him. Was he too uninteresting to bother?

Now we have several, but the turn in Morrison’s fortunes was so rapid that it defeated the efforts of authors to keep up. When Wayne Errington and Peter Van Onselen’s How Good is Scott Morrison? went off to the printers, the authors were convinced he was a shoo-in for the next election. By the time it appeared in the bookshops, the edited extract that appeared in The Australian suggested they were rather less sure.

Read more:
Is Morrison gaining a reputation for untrustworthiness? The answer could have serious implications for the election

The year saw a remarkable leeching of Morrison’s standing and authority, not least in relation to state and territory leaders.

But they too had their problems: Berejiklian lost her job when ICAC announced it had launched an investigation into her conduct. Daniel Andrews in Victoria suffered a serious back injury at the beginning of the year and faced large “freedom” protesters waving the Eureka Flag at the end of it. Mark McGowan seems a little less shiny than a year ago, as Western Australia’s severe border restrictions extend into 2022.

And we have a federal election to come.

Labor leader Anthony Albanese, having kept his powder dry for years, is beginning to drip-release policies, seeking just enough distance over issues such as climate policy for product differentiation without frightening the horses. He seems to wish to slip quietly into office rather as numerous Labor state and territory opposition leaders have done over the past 25 years.

Morrison is now transformed from goofy Scomo into biblical Moses, leading his people out of the COVID desert into the Promised Land of “Freedom”.

But he still must try keeping the increasingly wild right flank of his Coalition government solid while attending to the threat that independent and Labor candidates pose to metropolitan Liberal seats.

His government ended the year by losing two ministers to scandals, with another announcing his retirement at the next election. Morrison’s grip on the Coalition party room was now so loose that it called into question his grip on the House of Representatives itself.

The election result seems less certain than in the months before the 2019 election when it was all rather obvious that Labor and Bill Shorten were heading for a famous victory.

Readers will understand if I refrain from offering a prediction.

Frank Bongiorno does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Farewell to 2021 in federal politics, the year of living in disappointment – https://theconversation.com/farewell-to-2021-in-federal-politics-the-year-of-living-in-disappointment-172238

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Duckett, Director, Health and Aged Care Program, Grattan Institute

More than a million older Australians need care at home each year. More than 1,000 agencies provide services to them.

Despite the federal government allocating significant extra funds to home care in the last budget, there is still a raft of problems with current home-care arrangements.

As we show in our new report, “Unfinished business: practical policies for better care at home”, the federal government is placing too much emphasis on expanding the market of services, and not enough on supporting people to access timely and quality services.

Read more:
Explainer: what is a home care package and who is eligible?

Home care support ranges from help with personal care and cleaning the house, to provision of mobility aids, and transport to social events and medical appointments.

People who need care at home can explore options via the federal government’s myagedcare website. Then they can get assessed, find a local provider to suit their needs, and manage their own care.

But this system is impersonal and cumbersome.

Assessment of people’s needs is divorced from planning their services. Older people get little advice and support to find services, and people who need more intensive and complex care often have to wait for more than a year.

Administrative and coordination costs for the 200,000 people who get home care packages are high, hourly service charges are unregulated, and there is more than A$1.6 billion in unspent funds that could be used to provide services.

The number of private services has grown dramatically, with little oversight of quality and value for money.

At the same time, home-care workers remain poorly paid and under-valued. Training is patchy, work is often insecure, and there’s insufficient supervision, support and staff development.

Not surprisingly, it is increasingly difficult to recruit and retain aged-care workers.

Read more:
Confused about aged care in the home? These 10 charts explain how it works

What’s wrong with the extra funding?

The federal government’s response to the landmark Royal Commission into Aged Care was substantial, but it doesn’t change the fundamentals of the home-care system. It expands a market that is not working for older people.

The government is putting its faith in a centrally regulated market model, dominated by private and non-government home-care businesses.

Even with the massively increased home-care funding, the market may still not provide enough to reduce waiting times for services to less than a month, as the royal commission recommended.

There are currently almost 75,000 waiting for the home care support they need, with some having waited up to nine months.

We calculate that up to 15% more home-care places than planned could be needed just to clear the waiting list. We call on the federal government to keep waiting times to 30 days or less.

The government’s budget package does include additional support to help older people navigate their way through the home-care system. But assessment, care finding, and care coordination will continue to be fragmented.

In the main, older people will still have to navigate a complex system and make market choices on their own.

Read more:
Budget package doesn’t guarantee aged-care residents will get better care

We need to go local to provide the best support

Australia needs a new home care model – one that provides much more personalised support to help older people get the services they need and that manages local service systems on their behalf.

It’s difficult to see this being done without establishing effective regional aged-care offices. These offices need to provide a one-stop shop for older people. Yet they also need to have the authority and responsibility to develop and manage local services to make sure older people can get what they need.

The federal government is aware of this problem, but its response is tepid – a trial of small, regional offices of up to ten people to plan, monitor and solve problems. But those regional offices have no responsibility for supporting older people, and no authority to manage service providers on their behalf.

We recommend the federal government establish a network of regional aged-care offices across Australia to plan and develop services, hold funds, pay providers, and administer service agreements for individual older people who need care. These offices should include assessment teams and care finders, to help people who are trying to navigate the home-care system.

Read more:
As home care packages become big business, older people are not getting the personalised support they need

Good quality home care depends on a well-qualified, secure and valued workforce. Again, the federal government is aware of this problem and has introduced a limited set of workforce reforms. But it has not yet agreed to support improved pay and conditions, minimum qualification standards or a full registration scheme for personal-care workers.

The government should develop and implement a revitalised workforce plan for aged care as part of the new Aged Care Act. Personal-care workers should be registered and hold suitable minimum qualifications.

The government should also make it clear it will fund the outcomes of the Fair Work Commission review of fair pay and conditions for aged-care workers, with a ruling expected next year.

As Australia’s population continues to age, many more people with complex needs will need care. The vast majority of them will prefer to be supported at home. Massively expanding home-care services without much stronger market management, and a much more secure workforce, is a risk Australia shouldn’t take.

Stephen Duckett is a member of the board of directors of the Brotherhood of St Laurence which, among other services, is a provider of aged care. He is also chair of the board of directors of the Eastern Melbourne Primary Health Network. Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute’s activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities, as disclosed on its website.

Hal Swerissen is a non Executive Director of the Murray PHN and the Bendigo Kangan Institute. He is a Fellow in the Health Program at GRATTAN Institute.

– ref. Older Australians are already bamboozled by a complex home-care system. So why give them more of the same? – https://theconversation.com/older-australians-are-already-bamboozled-by-a-complex-home-care-system-so-why-give-them-more-of-the-same-173326

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rigissa Megalokonomou, Lecturer in Economics, The University of Queensland

Two important patterns in education are true world-wide. First, females outperform males in most subjects, and boys do not outperform girls in high school maths and physics. Second, more females than males enrol in higher education. However, female enrolments in science, technology, mathematics and engineering (STEM) degrees are disproportionately low.

My research with Professor Victor Lavy has shown teacher gender bias at least partly explains these low enrolments. We measured this bias in an innovative way based on how teachers graded different sets of students. We tracked the effects over many years, showing this bias distorts students’ grades in school and their post-school study choices.

We also found an association with teaching quality: the most effective teachers have a gender-neutral attitude.

What did the study look at?

There is evidence that beliefs about a specific group can determine individuals’ behaviours toward members of that group. And these behaviours, whether conscious or unconscious, may affect outcomes for the individuals exposed to them. So we explored the question: if you have a pro-boy maths teacher, how does it affect students’ performance in the subject a year later and their likelihood of enrolling in a maths degree two years later?

To answer this question, we used administrative data from Greece that match students, teachers and classrooms. Our study sample included more than 400 teachers from 21 high schools over eight years. The data record the progress of students from grade 10 through to grade 12, and are linked with university admission.

Thus, we can see students’ trajectory, including results in tests in year 11, standardised high-stakes exams in grade 12, attendance, the quality of the tertiary institution they enrol in, as well as degree choices.

How was teacher bias measured?

To measure teacher gender bias we exploited the difference between two tests that every student takes in all subjects in grade 11. One test is external, graded by an external examiner, and student names and thus gender are concealed. For the other test, graded by a school teacher, student names and their gender are revealed.

These tests cover the same curriculum and examine the same skills. Both tests are high-stakes, because results count for university admission two years later.

We calculated gender differences in outcomes in the two tests for each class a teacher taught in the sample. This measure shows whether teachers do consistently give higher or lower grades when they know the genders of students (compared to the external assessors who do not know this). In this way, we could identify a teacher’s gender biases in grading.

We were able to track outcomes for teachers over the eight years to get a persistent measure of their bias in different classes with different sets of students. We found teacher gender biases exist and are persistent. A teacher who acts in one class in a pro-boy way is very likely to act in the same way in a different class even seven or eight years later.

Our findings indicate these biases are deeply rooted in teachers’ attitudes and behaviours. Only 15% of teachers were gender-neutral in their behaviour.

Many teachers favoured boys, and many teachers favoured girls, with these behaviours varying by subjects. For instance, there was more pro-boy grading behaviour by teachers in algebra rather than in history or ancient Greek.

Teacher biases affect students a lot

We then investigated the impacts of these biases on students’ maths grades in high school and on university admission. We found lasting effects. Male students who had a pro-boy maths teacher in grade 11 did better in maths in grade 12. The opposite happened to female students in their maths class – they did significantly worse the next year.

Studies from France and Israel found a similar pattern. However, these studies used a weaker definition for teacher gender biases and could not follow the same teacher over time.

Using detailed student attendance data, we also found students with teachers biased in favour of their gender are less likely to miss classes without a reason and less likely to be expelled from the class. This suggest students exposed to biased teachers might be less motivated to attend class or less engaged with learning.

After school, teacher biases continue to have a significant effect on students’ probability of enrolling in tertiary education, quality of university and study program. These effects are similar for males and females.

However, only for female students do teacher biases have a significant effect on the chosen field of study. Female students who had pro-boy teachers in maths or physics in grade 11 were less likely to enrol in university maths or physics courses two years later. Teacher gender biases seem to have little effect on male students’ degree choices.

This could be partially explained by a discouragement effect on girls that lowers their self-confidence and their beliefs in their abilities and prospects of success.

The impacts are long-term

Teacher gender biases seem to have longer-term implications for females, affecting their career prospects and earnings.

In Australia, only 35% of university degrees in STEM disciplines are awarded to women. Although 58% of students in higher education are females, the rates are much lower in STEM subjects: 40% in architecture and building, 17% in information technology and 16% in engineering and related technologies.

These STEM degrees are associated with high salaries. This means women are underrepresented in high-paying occupations. This trend is true for most OECD countries.

Gender-neutral teachers are more effective

Our final important finding is that the most effective teachers have gender-neutral attitudes. This suggests less effective teachers can harm their students twice: first by being ineffective and second by discriminating against one of the genders.

From a policy perspective, training that improves teacher quality will also likely reduce gender discrimination in schools.

Rigissa Megalokonomou undertook the research discussed in this article with Professor Victor Lavy of the University of Warwick and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

– ref. Teacher gender bias is real and has lasting effects on students’ marks and study choices – https://theconversation.com/teacher-gender-bias-is-real-and-has-lasting-effects-on-students-marks-and-study-choices-171827

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Max Rashbrooke, Research Associate, Institute for Governance and Policy Studies, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

New Zealanders, like many of their developed country counterparts, have built up significant debts in recent decades. There are differing views, however, on whether this constitutes a problem.

For some, indebtedness indicates a precarious situation – often described as being “underwater” – in which a person is unable to match their expenses to their income. For others, it represents investment: a temporary borrowing in order to be able to earn more in future.

To investigate this, we used data from the net worth module attached to the Household Economic Survey in 2014–15 and 2017–18. This provides information about individuals in “negative net wealth” – that is, those whose liabilities (debts) exceed their assets (wealth).

What is clear is that the number of New Zealanders with negative net wealth is both large and growing. In 2014–15, there were 314,000 indebted New Zealanders out of an adult (15+) population of 3.55 million, or 8.8%.

Just three years later, that number had increased to 363,000 out of 3.81 million, or 9.5%, despite the absence of a major economic shock – along the lines of the global financial crisis – in that time.

Where the debt sits

To establish whether this constituted a serious policy problem, however, we had to look more closely at these individuals’ characteristics.

Most of them have low incomes: 32% report incomes under NZ$13,240, and 68% under $36,596 (the median individual income at that time). Just 4% are in the highest tenth of income earners. Clearly, most of those in negative net wealth are not lavish-spending high-rollers.

Read more:
NZ’s unemployment insurance scheme will be the biggest welfare shakeup in generations – is it justified?

This might ring alarm bells: having a low income suggests an inability to repay debts. But that depends on a couple of further characteristics, including age and the nature of the liability.

Those in negative net wealth are disproportionately young: 58% are under 29, and a further 25% are aged 30 to 44. Just 3% or so are over 65.

Nearly two-thirds of the debts are in mortgages, whether for owner-occupied homes or investment properties (51.3% and 13.7%, respectively). This is followed by student loans (21.9%), “other” debts (11.7%), credit cards (1%) and hire purchase (0.4%).

Are debts backed by assets?

Combining the above two forms of analysis, we found that for people in negative net wealth aged 15 to 24, nearly three-quarters of their debts (73.4%) are in student loans, whereas for people aged 55 to 64, 80.6% are in mortgages on their own homes.

This suggests the problems of indebtedness may not be as great as they appear. The major forms of debt – mortgages and student loans – are both backed, at least in theory, by assets: housing, in the case of mortgages, and “human capital” (marketable skills and education) in the case of student loans.

This indicates that many of those in negative net wealth have the ability to repay their debts or, at the very least, are accumulating some kind of asset.

Read more:
NZ’s government plans to switch to a circular economy to cut waste and emissions, but it’s going around in the wrong circles

But there are still several reasons to be concerned. Firstly, the assets mentioned above may not be entirely solid. Although house prices generally rise, and have recently been soaring, they have also been known to fall (in New Zealand as elsewhere). And the long-expected correction in the housing market may finally be about to happen, if bank predictions are to be believed.

Human capital is also somewhat notional: while graduates do on average earn two-thirds more than those with no tertiary qualification, not all degrees lead to high incomes, especially in a labour market characterised by high levels of precarious, insecure and casual work.

Many young people will be burdened by both large student loan debts and significant mortgages (assuming home ownership is attainable at all).

Debt and poverty

It is also not difficult to imagine negative net wealth becoming a problem for, say, a mid-level office worker who suddenly loses their job at the same time that their home – which they borrowed heavily to buy – falls sharply in value.

One of the principal concerns about debt, after all, is that it often represents a vulnerability – in other words, a probable lack of resilience in the face of major economic shocks.

Secondly, even if the forms of debt more generally considered problematic – such as those incurred on credit cards and via hire purchase – are relatively marginal, they are also most likely to affect those in the most difficult financial situations.

Read more:
COVID-19 is predicted to make child poverty worse. Should NZ’s next government make temporary safety nets permanent?

Charities and NGOs have repeatedly warned about the problems faced by families forced to turn to payday lenders and finance companies charging high interest rates. Research has also highlighted debt as one of the central factors keeping families in poverty.

Thirdly, the burden of negative net wealth is not evenly distributed. Of the 363,000 individuals in that situation, 195,000 are women, against 168,000 men. Just 8.1% of people of European descent are indebted, compared to 11.5% of Asian New Zealanders, 13.3% of Māori and 14.5% of Pasifika.

Read more:
NZ’s second ‘Well-being Budget’ must deliver for the families that sacrificed most during the pandemic

The wealth gap

These inequalities then overlap, such that the proportion of Pākehā men in negative net wealth (7.5%) is less than half that for Pasifika women (17.5%). This reflects – and exacerbates – other economic disparities, such as ethnic and gender pay gaps.

Negative net wealth also has to be viewed against its counterpart, large wealth concentrations at the upper end of the spectrum. As discussed in my recent book, the wealthiest 1% of individuals hold 25% of all assets, once members of the “Rich List” are included.

Such large surpluses and deficits contribute to financial instability. One of the dynamics that caused the GFC, for instance, was the significant surpluses owned by wealthy Americans being lent to low-income families whose wages had been suppressed for several decades.

Negative net wealth, then, is part of the much larger story of economic inequality – one that is now centre stage in political debates, in New Zealand as elsewhere.

The author gratefully acknowledges Geoff Rashbrooke, of the Institute for Governance and Policy Studies, and Albert Chin, of Statistics New Zealand, who collaborated on this research.

Max Rashbrooke does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Over 300,000 New Zealanders owe more than they own – is this a problem? – https://theconversation.com/over-300-000-new-zealanders-owe-more-than-they-own-is-this-a-problem-173497

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David William Trodden, Chief executive of NSW Rugby League and PhD candidate, University of New England

Monday 13 December marks the 50th anniversary of a decision by the High Court of Australia that fundamentally altered the playing field for professional athletes in this country.

The case concerned 25-year-old rugby league star Dennis Tutty, who wanted to be freed from playing for the Balmain Tigers, to whom he was tied under the NSW Rugby League’s “retain and transfer” rules.

The ruling is “one of the more important human rights decisions of the High Court”, according to noted industrial relations academic Braham Dabscheck.

He ranked it among a handful of formative legal cases globally to do with economic and employment freedom in professional team sports. It has been cited in hundreds of Australian court cases involving football, cricket, rugby union, Aussie rules and hockey players.

In essence the High Court ruled professional athletes could not be treated as indentured labourers. They had the right, like other workers, to pick their employers and negotiate contracts freely.

However, the modern professional rugby players’ claim to equal human rights still isn’t quite the same as other employees, as more recent events have shown.

Tutty’s complaint

Dennis Tutty had made Balmain’s first grade team in 1964, as a 17-year-old. He’d played in his first grand final that season, another in 1966, and had gone on to represent Australia in 1967. He was Balmain’s player of the year in the 1966 and 1967 seasons.

But he was aggrieved by what he considered to be a lack of recognition (and money) at Balmain. At the end of the 1967 season his contract with the club expired, and he was put on its “retain” list. He would have to play for what the club was prepared to pay, or not play at all.

Effectively he was bound to the club a bit like a serf to the land. The NSW Rugby League’s rules precluded him from negotiating a new contract with Balmain or with another club.

Tutty thought that was unfair. He decided to sit out the 1969 season and initiated legal action in the Supreme Court of NSW against the Balmain Tigers and the NSW Rugby League to set aside those rules.

The High Court decides

The Supreme Court heard the case in May 1970 and handed down its decision in October 1970, in Tutty’s favour. NSW Rugby League, through its then president Bill Buckley, then appealed to the High Court.

This was the first case involving rugby league to come before the High Court. Led by Chief Justice Garfield Barwick, five judges heard the competing arguments over several days in April and May 1971.

Tutty’s lawyers argued the player contracting rules amounted an unreasonable restraint of trade. NSW Rugby League argued it was a voluntary association whose rules had no contractual effect, that its rules did not restrain trade, and if they did it was no more than was reasonable.

The High Court agreed with the lower court. The ruling is close to 10,000 words long but its essential point was that the rules binding Tutty to Balmain were “a restraint of trade which is unreasonable and unjustified”.

In the past 50 years Buckley v Tutty has been cited in more than 200 decisions by Australian courts, including every state and territory supreme court.

Jack de Belin’s stand-down case

But one case the ruling hasn’t positively affected is the 2019 Federal Court proceedings brought by St George Illawarra player Jack de Belin against the Australian Rugby League Commission (ARLC), the governing body of the National Rugby League. (The NRL is the elite competition successor to the NSW Rugby League.)

The NRL had stood down de Belin in February 2019 (with pay from his club) after it introduced a “no-fault stand-down” policy for players charged with serious criminal offences. This followed police charging de Belin (and a friend) with aggravated sexual assault in December 2018.

De Belin maintained the sexual encounter with the woman was consensual. His lawyers argued that the NRL standing him down was an unreasonable restraint of trade, because it went further than was reasonably necessary to protect the legitimate interests of the NRL, was imposed for an indefinite period, was done in retrospective way, and de Belin had no opportunity to make submissions or appeal.

He lost that case, with the Federal Court’s Justice Melissa Perry ruling in May 2019 that the stand-down rule went no further than was reasonably necessary to protect the legitimate interests of the NRL and ARLC.

The first of four reasons Justice Perry gave for why the NRL and ARLC had grounds to regard de Belin’s playing as a “clear and present danger to the legitimate interests” of the ARLC and the NRL was:

“while mindful of the presumption of innocence, an ordinary reasonable member of the public is likely to conclude from the fact that Mr de Belin has been charged with a serious offence that he is a person suspected by the police of having committed the offence and that the police have reasonable cause for laying the charge against him.”

You could be forgiven for interpreting this as saying that while the presumption of innocence until proven guilty is enshrined in the United Nations Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the fact people might suspect de Belin was guilty was enough grounds for the NRL to stand him down.

Read more:
Footy crowds: what the AFL and NRL need to turn sport into show business

De Belin ultimately had all charges against him dropped in May 2021.

We may not think of professional athletes as being just like other workers, but should that mean the fundamental right to a presumption of innocence is trumped by the primacy of the commercial rights of a governing body?

To resolve that question we may need another Dennis Tutty to take the matter all the way to the High Court.

David William Trodden is the chief executive of NSW Rugby League and a past chairman of the Balmain Tigers.

Michael Adams does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Rugby player Dennis Tutty went to the High Court and changed Australian sport – but there’s still a tough issue left to tackle – https://theconversation.com/rugby-player-dennis-tutty-went-to-the-high-court-and-changed-australian-sport-but-theres-still-a-tough-issue-left-to-tackle-173250

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Flavio Macau, Associate Dean Teaching & Learning, Edith Cowan University

Australia is going through another supply chain crisis. Stocks of AdBlue, an exhaust fluid used in newer diesel cars and trucks to reduce pollution, is getting dangerously low.

The culprit is a shortage of synthesised urea, an ingredient which local AdBlue makers import mostly from Russia and China. It has uses from plywood to cosmetics and fertilisers. High demand, particularly from farmers, has led to a global supply shortage.

In July, Chinese urea makers began restricting exports in response to fluctuations in the local market. International prices soared 50% between September and October, but that was not enough to stabilise supply and demand.

For Australia the alarm bells rang loudly last week when the Australian Trucking Association warned AdBlue stocks would run out in February. Some are more pessimistic, saying supplies will be gone by Christmas.

What happens if Australia runs out of AdBlue

AdBlue helps newer-model diesel vehicles meet emissions standards by breaking down harmful nitrogen oxides. If you own a diesel car with an AdBlue tank, your car’s engine is programmed to not start once you run out of it.

The good news is that a typical car can travel more than 1,000 km on 1 litre of AdBlue. Cars typically have tanks holding at least 10 litres. So one tank should keep you safe for at least six months.

For trucks it’s a different story. They typically clock up more kilometres on the road and are less efficient, using about 1 litre of AdBlue every 70 kilometres.

However, roughly half of Australia’s trucks don’t use AdBlue due to their age. The average age of Australia’s truck fleet is 15 years, compared with 13 years for Europe and less than 10 years for Germany. Also, emission regulation in Australia is less stringent than in the European Union.

In a worst-case scenario, where no solution is found and AdBlue supply stops, we may have to rely on these older trucks. Newer trucks could be remapped to run while polluting considerably more. But this is technically difficult, and will require temporary changes to Australian emission standards.

No one wants to go down that road. That’s why the federal government has established a taskforce to fix the problem.

How to solve the AdBlue supply crisis

Most supply chain crisis are based on hiccups in coordination.

Global AdBlue production, transportation and storage is under pressure but not disrupted. Federal energy minister Angus Taylor said last Thursday that Australia had enough AdBlue to last at least five weeks, and shipments en route would cover another two weeks. And more is yet to come.

Seven weeks will put us well into late January. By then we will be past Christmas, with less cargo and fewer parcels to move. This will bring relief to some logistic providers, who will be in a better position to stretch out their AdBlue stocks.

This should buy more time for the AdBlue taskforce to find solutions.

For example, it can recommend the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission suspend its usual anti-collusion rules that prevent competitors from talking to each other to cooperate. It did this in 2020 with the supermarkets, medical suppliers, banks and telecommunications companies to help them through the beginnings of the COVID-19 storm.

Read more:
Look who’s talking: Australia’s telcos, banks and supermarkets granted exemption to cartel laws

Another lesson to from past supply crises – particularly in supermarket supplies – is suppressing the chance of a self-creating crisis due to panic buying or stockpiling behaviour.

Limits on sales may be needed. If every transporter and diesel vehicle owner decides now is the time to fill their AdBlue tanks, stocks will deteriorate sooner.

The taskforce will be looking for suppliers less affected by the Chinese ban, and for ways to best distribute the stock we have. All these actions together should be enough to soon turn the corner on AdBlue shortages.

Is there a wider supply chain problem?

Whether this crisis points to a systemic problem that needs fixing depends on one’s perspective. It is a byproduct of globalisation, which expands supply chains but make them more vulnerable.

Economies of scale generally (but not always) make it more efficient and cheaper to have one big factory at one place than many small factories across the globe. The problem is when something happens to that one factory.

While there has been talk about a more strategic approach to “onshoring”, COVID-19 did not change the game much. The DHL Global Connectedness Index shows globalisation “has been much more resilient through the COVID-19 crisis than many predicted”.

Four pillars of global connectedness, 2001 – 2020

A Productivity Commission report published in August was relatively relaxed about the risks to Australia. It highlighted that only a few critical products were vulnerable, though did note Australia’s over-reliance on much-needed chemicals coming from overseas (without mentioning urea or AdBlue specifically).

Read more:
Mid-COVID, our investigation finds few vulnerabilities in Australia’s supply chains

The call for more manufacturing in Australia faces the hard truth that once a crisis passes and cracks in supply chains mend, most of the time the local industry can’t compete with imports.

COVID has, at least, pushed businesses to embrace a “China plus one” supply strategy. They have also increased inventories – moving from “just-in-time” to “just-in-case”.

So the two morals of this story, as with many others, is not put all your eggs in one basket, and put aside for a rainy day. AdBlue included!

Flavio Macau is affiliated with the Australasian Supply Chain Institute (ASCI).

– ref. Australia’s shortage of diesel additive Adblue is serious, but we can stop it going critical – https://theconversation.com/australias-shortage-of-diesel-additive-adblue-is-serious-but-we-can-stop-it-going-critical-173588

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Flavio Macau, Associate Dean Teaching & Learning, Edith Cowan University

Australia is going through another supply chain crisis. Stocks of AdBlue, an exhaust fluid used in newer diesel cars and trucks to reduce pollution, is getting dangerously low.

The culprit is a shortage of synthesised urea, an ingredient which local AdBlue makers import mostly from Russia and China. It has uses from plywood to cosmetics and fertilisers. High demand, particularly from farmers, has led to a global supply shortage.

In July, Chinese urea makers began restricting exports in response to fluctuations in the local market. International prices soared 50% between September and October, but that was not enough to stabilise supply and demand.

For Australia the alarm bells rang loudly last week when the Australian Trucking Association warned AdBlue stocks would run out in February. Some are more pessimistic, saying supplies will be gone by Christmas.

What happens if Australia runs out of AdBlue

AdBlue helps newer-model diesel vehicles meet emissions standards by breaking down harmful nitrogen oxides. If you own a diesel car with an AdBlue tank, your car’s engine is programmed to not start once you run out of it.

The good news is that a typical car can travel more than 1,000 km on 1 litre of AdBlue. Cars typically have tanks holding at least 10 litres. So one tank should keep you safe for at least six months.

For trucks it’s a different story. They typically clock up more kilometres on the road and are less efficient, using about 1 litre of AdBlue every 70 kilometres.

However, roughly half of Australia’s trucks don’t use AdBlue due to their age. The average age of Australia’s truck fleet is 15 years, compared with 13 years for Europe and less than 10 years for Germany. Also, emission regulation in Australia is less stringent than in the European Union.

In a worst-case scenario, where no solution is found and AdBlue supply stops, we may have to rely on these older trucks. Newer trucks could be remapped to run while polluting considerably more. But this is technically difficult, and will require temporary changes to Australian emission standards.

No one wants to go down that road. That’s why the federal government has established a taskforce to fix the problem.

How to solve the AdBlue supply crisis

Most supply chain crisis are based on hiccups in coordination.

Global AdBlue production, transportation and storage is under pressure but not disrupted. Federal energy minister Angus Taylor said last Thursday that Australia had enough AdBlue to last at least five weeks, and shipments en route would cover another two weeks. And more is yet to come.

Seven weeks will put us well into late January. By then we will be past Christmas, with less cargo and fewer parcels to move. This will bring relief to some logistic providers, who will be in a better position to stretch out their AdBlue stocks.

This should buy more time for the AdBlue taskforce to find solutions.

For example, it can recommend the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission suspend its usual anti-collusion rules that prevent competitors from talking to each other to cooperate. It did this in 2020 with the supermarkets, medical suppliers, banks and telecommunications companies to help them through the beginnings of the COVID-19 storm.

Read more:
Look who’s talking: Australia’s telcos, banks and supermarkets granted exemption to cartel laws

Another lesson to from past supply crises – particularly in supermarket supplies – is suppressing the chance of a self-creating crisis due to panic buying or stockpiling behaviour.

Limits on sales may be needed. If every transporter and diesel vehicle owner decides now is the time to fill their AdBlue tanks, stocks will deteriorate sooner.

The taskforce will be looking for suppliers less affected by the Chinese ban, and for ways to best distribute the stock we have. All these actions together should be enough to soon turn the corner on AdBlue shortages.

Is there a wider supply chain problem?

Whether this crisis points to a systemic problem that needs fixing depends on one’s perspective. It is a byproduct of globalisation, which expands supply chains but make them more vulnerable.

Economies of scale generally (but not always) make it more efficient and cheaper to have one big factory at one place than many small factories across the globe. The problem is when something happens to that one factory.

While there has been talk about a more strategic approach to “onshoring”, COVID-19 did not change the game much. The DHL Global Connectedness Index shows globalisation “has been much more resilient through the COVID-19 crisis than many predicted”.

Four pillars of global connectedness, 2001 – 2020

A Productivity Commission report published in August was relatively relaxed about the risks to Australia. It highlighted that only a few critical products were vulnerable, though did note Australia’s over-reliance on much-needed chemicals coming from overseas (without mentioning urea or AdBlue specifically).

Read more:
Mid-COVID, our investigation finds few vulnerabilities in Australia’s supply chains

The call for more manufacturing in Australia faces the hard truth that once a crisis passes and cracks in supply chains mend, most of the time the local industry can’t compete with imports.

COVID has, at least, pushed businesses to embrace a “China plus one” supply strategy. They have also increased inventories – moving from “just-in-time” to “just-in-case”.

So the two morals of this story, as with many others, is not put all your eggs in one basket, and put aside for a rainy day. AdBlue included!

Flavio Macau is affiliated with the Australasian Supply Chain Institute (ASCI).

– ref. Australia’s shortage of the diesel additive Adblue is serious, but there are ways to stop it going critical – https://theconversation.com/australias-shortage-of-the-diesel-additive-adblue-is-serious-but-there-are-ways-to-stop-it-going-critical-173588

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Flavio Macau, Associate Dean Teaching & Learning, Edith Cowan University

Australia is going through another supply chain crisis. Stocks of AdBlue, an exhaust fluid used in newer diesel cars and trucks to reduce pollution, is getting dangerously low.

The culprit is a shortage of synthesised urea, an ingredient which local AdBlue makers import mostly from Russia and China. It has uses from plywood to cosmetics and fertilisers. High demand, particularly from farmers, has led to a global supply shortage.

In July, Chinese urea makers began restricting exports in response to fluctuations in the local market. International prices soared 50% between September and October, but that was not enough to stabilise supply and demand.

For Australia the alarm bells rang loudly last week when the Australian Trucking Association warned AdBlue stocks would run out in February. Some are more pessimistic, saying supplies will be gone by Christmas.

What happens if Australia runs out of AdBlue

AdBlue helps newer-model diesel vehicles meet emissions standards by breaking down harmful nitrogen oxides. If you own a diesel car with an AdBlue tank, your car’s engine is programmed to not start once you run out of it.

The good news is that a typical car can travel more than 1,000 km on 1 litre of AdBlue. Cars typically have tanks holding at least 10 litres. So one tank should keep you safe for at least six months.

For trucks it’s a different story. They typically clock up more kilometres on the road and are less efficient, using about 1 litre of AdBlue every 70 kilometres.

However, roughly half of Australia’s trucks don’t use AdBlue due to their age. The average age of Australia’s truck fleet is 15 years, compared with 13 years for Europe and less than 10 years for Germany. Also, emission regulation in Australia is less stringent than in the European Union.

In a worst-case scenario, where no solution is found and AdBlue supply stops, we may have to rely on these older trucks. Newer trucks could be remapped to run while polluting considerably more. But this is technically difficult, and will require temporary changes to Australian emission standards.

No one wants to go down that road. That’s why the federal government has established a taskforce to fix the problem.

How to solve the AdBlue supply crisis

Most supply chain crisis are based on hiccups in coordination.

Global AdBlue production, transportation and storage is under pressure but not disrupted. Federal energy minister Angus Taylor said last Thursday that Australia had enough AdBlue to last at least five weeks, and shipments en route would cover another two weeks. And more is yet to come.

Seven weeks will put us well into late January. By then we will be past Christmas, with less cargo and fewer parcels to move. This will bring relief to some logistic providers, who will be in a better position to stretch out their AdBlue stocks.

This should buy more time for the AdBlue taskforce to find solutions.

For example, it can recommend the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission suspend its usual anti-collusion rules that prevent competitors from talking to each other to cooperate. It did this in 2020 with the supermarkets, medical suppliers, banks and telecommunications companies to help them through the beginnings of the COVID-19 storm.

Read more:
Look who’s talking: Australia’s telcos, banks and supermarkets granted exemption to cartel laws

Another lesson to from past supply crises – particularly in supermarket supplies – is suppressing the chance of a self-creating crisis due to panic buying or stockpiling behaviour.

Limits on sales may be needed. If every transporter and diesel vehicle owner decides now is the time to fill their AdBlue tanks, stocks will deteriorate sooner.

The taskforce will be looking for suppliers less affected by the Chinese ban, and for ways to best distribute the stock we have. All these actions together should be enough to soon turn the corner on AdBlue shortages.

Is there a wider supply chain problem?

Whether this crisis points to a systemic problem that needs fixing depends on one’s perspective. It is a byproduct of globalisation, which expands supply chains but make them more vulnerable.

Economies of scale generally (but not always) make it more efficient and cheaper to have one big factory at one place than many small factories across the globe. The problem is when something happens to that one factory.

While there has been talk about a more strategic approach to “onshoring”, COVID-19 did not change the game much. The DHL Global Connectedness Index shows globalisation “has been much more resilient through the COVID-19 crisis than many predicted”.

Four pillars of global connectedness, 2001 – 2020

A Productivity Commission report published in August was relatively relaxed about the risks to Australia. It highlighted that only a few critical products were vulnerable, though did note Australia’s over-reliance on much-needed chemicals coming from overseas (without mentioning urea or AdBlue specifically).

Read more:
Mid-COVID, our investigation finds few vulnerabilities in Australia’s supply chains

The call for more manufacturing in Australia faces the hard truth that once a crisis passes and cracks in supply chains mend, most of the time the local industry can’t compete with imports.

COVID has, at least, pushed businesses to embrace a “China plus one” supply strategy. They have also increased inventories – moving from “just-in-time” to “just-in-case”.

So the two morals of this story, as with many others, is not put all your eggs in one basket, and put aside for a rainy day. AdBlue included!

Flavio Macau is affiliated with the Australasian Supply Chain Institute (ASCI).

– ref. Australia’s Adblue shortage is serious, but there are ways to avoid the crisis going critical – https://theconversation.com/australias-adblue-shortage-is-serious-but-there-are-ways-to-avoid-the-crisis-going-critical-173588