The March 29 budget will contain “targeted and proportionate” help for families with cost of living pressures and move fiscal policy towards stabilising and reducing debt.
These are the messages in Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s speech, released before its Friday delivery, laying out the priorities and fiscal setting of the budget, which will be a launch pad for the government’s campaign for the May election.
“The time for large scale, economy-wide emergency support is over,” Frydenberg says, pointing to where the government has already ended emergency measures and rejected requests for more support.
Fiscal settings “need to be normalised,” with the government moving to the next phase of its fiscal strategy.
Government sources stressed this doesn’t mean the government is planning to start cutting. Rather, they said, it aims to control new spending while continuing to grow the economy so there can be a steady then declining ratio of debt to GDP.
With the government under pressure over the cost of living, especially with the soaring of petrol prices, Frydenberg points to what it has done on power prices, child care and tax.
In the budget “there will be further measures to support families to meet the cost of living pressures, in a targeted and proportionate way”, he says.
His speech comes as unemployment fell to 4% in February, in figures released on Thursday. This is the equal lowest in 48 years.
“The Australian economy has recovered strongly and now has real momentum,” Frydenberg says.
“The initial phase of our fiscal strategy has delivered on its objective, with full employment in sight.” The budget “will show the fiscal dividend of this strong recovery.
“With our recovery well underway it is now time to move to the next phase of our fiscal strategy.
“This will see a focus on stabilising and then reducing debt as a share of the economy. Rebuilding our fiscal buffers without risking growth.”
Frydenberg says the budget “will confirm that this is the trajectory we are now on”.
The bottom line will show “substantial improvement”, he says, a result of more people in work and fewer on welfare.
Gross debt as a proportion of GDP will be forecast to peak lower than expected in the December budget update. It is projected to decline over the medium term.
“This is the fiscal dividend of a strong economy”.
Frydenberg stresses the uncertainties ahead, including the pandemic’s continued presence and the war in Europe which has heightened geopolitical risk and threatens global economic growth. Supply chains are strained, and energy prices and inflation are being driven up.
“As we saw entering this crisis, a strong budget and a strong economy put us in the best position to respond.
“That is why it is important to move to the next phase of our fiscal strategy, which will stabilise and reduce debt as a share of the economy”.
Frydenberg emphasises the need for the pace of fiscal consolidation to be gradual.
“It is about striking the right balance. A sharp and sudden tightening in the fiscal settings would likely be counterproductive, undermining the economic recovery and ultimately hurting the budget.”
He says Australia’s debt to GDP levels, even when they peak, will remain low by international standards. “Even as interest rates gradually rise, our debt servicing costs will remain manageable”.
Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Polls this week were once again music to Labor ears. Newspoll showed the opposition maintaining its strong election-winning margin. A poll in selected Western Australian seats had the Morrison government on the nose.
Polls, as everyone stresses, aren’t predictive – they register the mood of the moment. Nevertheless, and despite their unreliability in the last election, politicians and media take a lot of notice of them, and for Anthony Albanese their story is very positive.
So what could possibly go wrong on the opposition leader’s path to The Lodge? Plenty, as Labor knows, reinforced by that 2019 experience of false expectations. When voters really started concentrating during that campaign, they soured on the opposition.
Viewed from Labor’s campaign bunker, the weeks between now and election day in May are very high risk for Albanese, littered with both anticipated and unforeseeable hurdles.
There was a lesson this week in how damaging things can come out of the blue, when Albanese was confronted with (contested) allegations, reported in The Australian, that senior Labor women senators, including Penny Wong, had treated their colleague Kimberley Kitching badly.
While Kitching’s complaints had apparently circulated within Labor, it took her sudden death last week from a suspected heart attack for them to burst into the media.
The claims about Labor’s “mean girls” (the term the article said Kitching and her supporters used) were confronting when set against the background of a year’s debate about parliament house’s “toxic” culture.
Albanese and Labor generally sought to throw a blanket over the story, refusing to engage with it on the grounds of respect for Kitching. Scott Morrison tried to spur it along, saying these matters should be taken very seriously and addressed, and “I’ll leave that to the leader of the Labor Party”.
The so-called “mean girls” story will blow over, but it’s a reminder that in a campaign context (which is where we are, although the election hasn’t yet been called) the unexpected, in whatever form, often deals itself in.
An unknown of the coming weeks is how Albanese will perform under the intense hour-by-hour scrutiny that will build every day. “No one has seen Albanese under extreme pressure,” says one Labor man. “That’s the hinge-point around the campaign.”
Albanese is not, by nature, quite the relaxed character he might seem. The spring is coiled. This is not necessarily a criticism, but something to be managed. With the Liberals targeting him personally and mercilessly, his ability to perform without serious mistakes in a high political temperature will be pushed to the limit.
In a campaign, a small slip or awkward moment can quickly becomes negative news, as Bill Shorten found when a Queensland man challenged him about tax relief for higher-income workers. The media played the exchange repeatedly.
Campaigns “stress test” policies. Shorten’s 2019 climate policy did not contain enough detail to be campaign-resilient. A pesky journalist’s persistent questioning at one news conference had Shorten on the spot and showing the strain.
Spectacularly, in 1987 the Howard opposition’s tax policy had a double-counting error – the mistake dogged the Liberals’ campaign.
Campaigns are two-horse races: if one horse is lame (Malcolm Turnbull in 2016) it matters.
Two scheduled events will be significant in whether Albanese holds his advantage, or the government claws back ground: Tuesday week’s budget and the opposition leader’s budget reply two days later.
For a government in what seem dire straits, the budget is its chance to direct the voters’ attention to the economy, its preferred and stronger ground, and to offer some inducements.
But it’s become a balancing act for Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg. They’ve flagged the budget will address people’s concern about the rising cost of living, but they can’t afford to look profligate, given addressing the high level of debt must also be a priority.
Albanese will use his reply to counter the budget and announce some big-bang policy. His delivery will need to be well-pitched and the policy attention-grabbing and credible.
In the next few weeks Albanese, who’s still to define himself in the public’s consciousness, must convince people he’s a safe pair of hands on the economy. That might be more challenging than the issue of national security, on which the government’s efforts to damage him seem so far to have missed their mark.
While Labor is wary of being sucked in by the polls, the government is fearful of their consistent message.
Morrison finally got to Western Australia this week, coinciding with polling published in the West Australian newspaper showing several Liberal seats at high risk.
The poll, by Utting Research, indicated Labor was travelling strongly in Hasluck, Pearce (the seat Christian Porter is leaving) and Swan. In Tangney, held by Special Minister of State Ben Morton, a close confidant of Morrison, the numbers were knife-edge.
Morrison adopted a novel campaign strategy: a bromance with Labor premier Mark McGowan, who was returned last year in a stunning victory that all but wiped out the state parliamentary Liberal Party.
According to the prime minister’s “spin” on their partnership, the federal government’s joining Clive Palmer’s case against WA over its border closure should be seen as just part of the pandemic learning process. “The premier raised his concerns with me […] and we ultimately agreed with him”, and withdrew from the case, Morrison said.
The PM’s line to WA voters is that “federal Labor under Anthony Albanese is not the same as state Labor under Mark McGowan. There are two very different animals”. Regardless of who people vote for at the election, “Mark McGowan will be the premier the next day”.
When the two appeared together at a news conference, where new construction funds were announced, Morrison was effusive.
“I want to thank the premier for his partnership. It’s been a good partnership. It’s been an honest partnership. It’s been a candid partnership. Haven’t agreed on everything, but we’ve always been prepared to listen to each other and where […] I think I’ve had to change my view based on the premier’s representations, I certainly have.”
Appearing by himself later, McGowan reassured Labor he would be campaigning with and for Albanese.
Excluded by the closed border for so long, Morrison has been desperate to get to the west. But whether his physical presence and his largesse will erode those Labor leads is another matter.
In general, the federal Liberals in WA are a much-diminished bunch, in power and presence. They no longer have the sparkle of a Julie Bishop, or the strong dour presence of a Mathias Cormann. The star of Christian Porter burned brightly briefly, then fell to the ground spectacularly.
This weekend, eyes will be on another state. In South Australia, according to polling, Labor may dislodge the Marshall Liberal government.
While SA politics is anything but riveting for people outside that state, the outcome will be especially watched federally because if Labor wins it will be the first time since COVID struck that an incumbent government has been defeated. The symbolism wouldn’t be missed.
Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Polls this week were once again music to Labor ears. Newspoll showed the opposition maintaining its strong election-winning margin. A poll in selected Western Australian seats had the Morrison government on the nose.
Polls, as everyone stresses, aren’t predictive – they register the mood of the moment. Nevertheless, and despite their unreliability in last election, politicians and media take a lot of notice of them, and for Anthony Albanese their story is very positive.
So what could possibly go wrong on the opposition leader’s path to The Lodge? Plenty, as Labor knows, reinforced by that 2019 experience of false expectations. When voters really started concentrating during that campaign, they soured on the opposition.
Viewed from Labor’s campaign bunker, the weeks between now and election day in May are very high risk for Albanese, littered with both anticipated and unforeseeable hurdles.
There was a lesson this week in how damaging things can come out of the blue, when Albanese was confronted with (contested) allegations, reported in The Australian, that senior Labor women senators, including Penny Wong, had treated their colleague Kimberley Kitching badly.
While Kitching’s complaints had apparently circulated within Labor, it took her sudden death last week from a suspected heart attack for them to burst into the media.
The claims about Labor’s “mean girls” (the term the article said Kitching and her supporters used) were confronting when set against the background of a year’s debate about parliament house’s “toxic” culture.
Albanese and Labor generally sought to throw a blanket over the story, refusing to engage with it on the grounds of respect for Kitching. Scott Morrison tried to spur it along, saying these matters should be taken very seriously and addressed, and “I’ll leave that to the leader of the Labor Party”.
The so-called “mean girls” story will blow over, but it’s a reminder that in a campaign context (which is where we are, although the election hasn’t yet been called) the unexpected, in whatever form, often deals itself in.
An unknown of the coming weeks is how Albanese will perform under the intense hour-by-hour scrutiny that will build every day. “No one has seen Albanese under extreme pressure,” says one Labor man. “That’s the hinge-point around the campaign.”
Albanese is not, by nature, quite the relaxed character he might seem. The spring is coiled. This is not necessarily a criticism, but something to be managed. With the Liberals targeting him personally and mercilessly, his ability to perform without serious mistakes in a high political temperature will be pushed to the limit.
In a campaign, a small slip or awkward moment can quickly becomes negative news, as Bill Shorten found when a Queensland man challenged him about tax relief for higher-income workers. The media played the exchange repeatedly.
Campaigns “stress test” policies. Shorten’s 2019 climate policy did not contain enough detail to be campaign-resilient. A pesky journalist’s persistent questioning at one news conference had Shorten on the spot and showing the strain.
Spectacularly, in 1987 the Howard opposition’s tax policy had a double-counting error – the mistake dogged the Liberals’ campaign.
Campaigns are two-horse races: if one horse is lame (Malcolm Turnbull in 2016) it matters.
Two scheduled events will be significant in whether Albanese holds his advantage, or the government claws back ground: Tuesday week’s budget and the opposition leader’s budget reply two days later.
For a government in what seem dire straits, the budget is its chance to direct the voters’ attention to the economy, its preferred and stronger ground, and to offer some inducements.
But it’s become a balancing act for Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg. They’ve flagged the budget will address people’s concern about the rising cost of living, but they can’t afford to look profligate, given addressing the high level of debt must also be a priority.
Albanese will use his reply to counter the budget and announce some big-bang policy. His delivery will need to be well-pitched and the policy attention-grabbing and credible.
In the next few weeks Albanese, who’s still to define himself in the public’s consciousness, must convince people he’s a safe pair of hands on the economy. That might be more challenging than the issue of national security, on which the government’s efforts to damage him seem so far to have missed their mark.
While Labor is wary of being sucked in by the polls, the government is fearful of their consistent message.
Morrison finally got to Western Australia this week, coinciding with polling published in the West Australian newspaper showing several Liberal seats at high risk.
The poll, by Utting Research, indicated Labor was travelling strongly in Hasluck, Pearce (the seat Christian Porter is leaving) and Swan. In Tangney, held by Special Minister of State Ben Morton, a close confidant of Morrison, the numbers were knife-edge.
Morrison adopted a novel campaign strategy: a bromance with Labor premier Mark McGowan, who was returned last year in a stunning victory that all but wiped out the state parliamentary Liberal Party.
According to the prime minister’s “spin” on their partnership, the federal government’s joining Clive Palmer’s case against WA over its border closure should be seen as just part of the pandemic learning process. “The premier raised his concerns with me […] and we ultimately agreed with him”, and withdrew from the case, Morrison said.
The PM’s line to WA voters is that “federal Labor under Anthony Albanese is not the same as state Labor under Mark McGowan. There are two very different animals”. Regardless of who people vote for at the election, “Mark McGowan will be the premier the next day”.
When the two appeared together at a news conference, where new construction funds were announced, Morrison was effusive.
“I want to thank the premier for his partnership. It’s been a good partnership. It’s been an honest partnership. It’s been a candid partnership. Haven’t agreed on everything, but we’ve always been prepared to listen to each other and where […] I think I’ve had to change my view based on the premier’s representations, I certainly have.”
Appearing by himself later, McGowan reassured Labor he would be campaigning with and for Albanese.
Excluded by the closed border for so long, Morrison has been desperate to get to the west. But whether his physical presence and his largesse will erode those Labor leads is another matter.
In general, the federal Liberals in WA are a much-diminished bunch, in power and presence. They no longer have the sparkle of a Julie Bishop, or the strong dour presence of a Mathias Cormann. The star of Christian Porter burned brightly briefly, then fell to the ground spectacularly.
This weekend, eyes will be on another state. In South Australia, according to polling, Labor may dislodge the Marshall Liberal government.
While SA politics is anything but riveting for people outside that state, the outcome will be especially watched federally because if Labor wins it will be the first time since COVID struck that an incumbent government has been defeated. The symbolism wouldn’t be missed.
Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
We already knew Russia’s invasion was illegal in international law. But the ICJ decision now makes it virtually impossible for anyone, including Russia, to deny that illegality. It is also impressive because Ukraine used a creative strategy to get the ICJ to hear the case, based on the Genocide Convention of 1948.
Russia’s legal arguments about the war
Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, gave several justifications for invading Ukraine. Some had little to do with the law, such as his complaints about NATO. But two were legal arguments.
Second, Putin claimed Ukraine was committing genocide against ethnic Russians (where “genocide” means certain acts committed with “intent to destroy” an ethnic group or another defined group). This is just as factually and legally flimsy as the self-defence argument.
If both arguments are weak, why did Ukraine focus on genocide in the case before the ICJ? To understand, we have to look at the court’s jurisdiction: that is, its power to decide some legal issues but not others.
The jurisdiction of the ICJ
The ICJ hears disputes solely between sovereign states (in contrast to the separate International Criminal Court, which tries individuals for committing things like war crimes).
The ICJ does not automatically have jurisdiction over every state and every issue. There is no global government that could give it that power. Like many other aspects of international law, its jurisdiction relies on states giving consent – agreement – either directly or indirectly.
Some states have given consent by making general declarations. Other states have consented to particular treaties that give the ICJ the power to decide disputes related specifically to those treaties.
Since Russia has not made a general declaration, Ukraine could not ask the ICJ to rule on its self-defence argument. But Russia is a party to a relevant treaty, the Genocide Convention.
Ukraine’s creative strategy was to try to bring the case within the ICJ’s jurisdiction by arguing that Russia was making a false allegation of genocide to justify its illegal invasion.
People demonstrate in support of the Ukraine outside the ICJ, the UN’s top court, in The Hague. Peter Dejong/AP
The order made by the ICJ
Russia did not turn up to the courtroom in The Hague for the initial hearing in early March (though it did write the ICJ a letter outlining its view).
That is a change in its behaviour. After Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, Georgia similarly brought a case to the ICJ and tried to use a different treaty to bring it within the court’s jurisdiction. Russia participated in the case and actually had significant success.
Its failure to turn up this time signals its disengagement from international institutions.
This was what is called a “provisional measures” order – an emergency ruling made before the court hears the whole case. Provisional measures are binding. That is important. It means even if Russia maintains incorrectly that the invasion is legal, it is now breaching international law anyway by failing to comply with the ICJ’s order.
However, a binding ruling is not the same as an enforceable one. Just as there is no global government to give the ICJ more power, there are no global police to enforce its decisions.
But ICJ decisions can play a more subtle role. They shape the narrative for law-abiding states and within the United Nations.
This ruling might help to embolden other states, including some that until now have been sitting on the fence, to contribute to actions like suffocating Russia’s economy with sanctions and arming Ukraine.
All the ICJ has done so far is to order provisional measures. It has not even found conclusively that it has jurisdiction in the case. It might be a long time before it decides the case as a whole.
But it has hinted it is receptive to Ukraine’s arguments. It has noted that it “is not in possession of evidence” to support Russia’s allegation that Ukraine has committed genocide.
Another strength of Ukraine’s case is that there is, in any event, no rule in international law automatically giving one state a right to invade another state to stop a genocide. One reason is that a cynical aggressor could manipulate or abuse such a rule. That is basically what this case is all about.
Rowan Nicholson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
AAP/Matt Turner
The South Australian election is on Saturday, with polls closing at 6:30pm AEDT. A YouGov poll for The Advertiser, conducted March 7-13 from a sample of 835, gave Labor a 56-44 lead, compared with the 2018 election result of 51.9-48.1 to Liberal, so this poll would be about an 8% swing to Labor.
YouGov conducts Newspoll, so this poll can be compared with the Newspoll nearly three weeks ago. Labor gained three points after preferences, from primary votes of 41% Labor (up two), 33% Liberal (down four), 11% Greens (up one) and 15% for all Others (up one).
Liberal Premier Steven Marshall was at 48% dissatisfied, 46% satisfied, for a net approval of -2, down three points on Newspoll. Labor leader Peter Malinauskas had a net +19 approval, down one point. Malinauskas led as better premier by 45-40 (46-39 in Newspoll).
Labor held a 42-26 lead as best party to handle health and hospitals, which was rated the most important issue by 39% ahead of cost of living on 28%. Poll figures are from The Poll Bludger.
There are 47 single-member seats in the SA lower house. The Liberals won 25 seats to Labor’s 19 with three independents in 2018, but they are already in minority owing to defections to the crossbench. If this poll is near the election result, Labor will win a thumping majority in the lower house.
It’s very likely this will be the first time Labor wins the SA statewide two party vote since the 2006 state election. Labor retained power in both 2010 and 2014 despite losing the two party vote (by 53.0-47.0 in 2014).
Only votes cast on election day can be counted on the night in SA. These votes will likely be a low proportion of the overall turnout. It won’t be possible to call the result on election night unless it is very decisive.
What about the upper house?
This is a lower house poll, but upper house vote shares are usually similar to the lower house, with some drop for the major parties. 11 of the 22 upper house seats will be elected by statewide proportional representation. A quota is one-twelfth of the vote, or 8.3%.
Optional preferential voting above the line is used, so a single “1” above the line will only count for the party it is cast for. To give preferences for more parties, voters must continue numbering “2”, “3”, etc above the line. Owing to optional preferential, many votes will exhaust and about half a quota (4.2%) is likely to be enough to win.
Labor’s vote in this poll is nearly enough for five quotas – the Liberals would win four quotas and the Greens one without enough surplus to be in the hunt for a second seat. The last seat would probably go to one of the Others, with One Nation or SA-Best most likely.
Such a result would give Labor and the Greens six of the 11 seats up at this election, but the 2018 result was four Liberals, four Labor, two SA-Best and one Green. As these members continue until the 2026 election, the most likely outcome is a total of nine Labor, eight Liberals, two Greens, two SA-Best and one Other.
In this case, Labor and the Greens would together hold 11 of the 22 upper house seats after the election, and need one more vote to pass legislation opposed by the Liberals.
Federal polls from Morgan and WA
A federal Morgan poll, conducted March 3-13 from a sample of 1,947, gave Labor a 56-44 lead, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since early March. Primary votes were 37% Labor (down 0.5), 33.5% Coalition (down 0.5), 11.5% Greens (steady), 3% One Nation (down 0.5), 1% UAP (steady), 10.5% independents (up 1.5) and 3.5% others (steady).
The fieldwork dates for this Morgan poll overlap with those in the previous Morgan (February 24 to March 6).
The Poll Bludger reported Wednesday that Labor pollster Utting Research conducted polls in the Liberals’ four most marginal WA seats from March 11-14 from a combined sample of 750. Combining these results suggests a 10% swing to Labor from the 2019 election.
A Greens-commissioned WA federal poll gave Labor 42% of the primary vote, the Coalition 33% and the Greens 11%. Greens-commissioned polls usually overstate the Greens’ vote.
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Australia’s budget situation has been quietly improving. Deloitte Access Economics director Chris Richardson says the remarkable strength of the Australian economy means it no longer needs the emergency support it has been getting from the government and the Reserve Bank. Government spending fell by a record 10% in the year to January.
He counsels against emergency measures to protect Australians from the soaring price of petrol, saying today’s international oil price implies that in less than a fortnight petrol prices will be between 15 and 20 cents lower a litre.
While there is no guarantee they won’t climb again, the relief that’s in store is half as big as the relief the government could deliver by cutting fuel excise, a measure he says would be like applying a Band-Aid that would be difficult to rip off.
Rather than pumping more money into the economy, the March 29 budget should be withdrawing support in a measured fashion. Although government debt has climbed, low interest rates mean the payments on government debt cost less than before COVID.
With Australia just a “handful of months” away from an unemployment rate of 3.5% – Thursday’s February rate was 4.0% – Australia should celebrate its success in getting its economic policies right during COVID. While the reopening of borders will slow Australia’s success in bringing down unemployment, it is unlikely to reverse it.
After petrol prices, the next challenge for Australians will be higher mortgage rates, but they will be going up for a reason, Richardson says, because inflation is climbing and wage growth is climbing, which will improve the budget position further.
Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shannon Foster, D’harawal Knowledge Keeper PhD Candidate and Lecturer UTS, University of Technology Sydney
Ilaria Vanni
Sydney’s Green Square is one of Australia’s biggest urban renewal projects. But it’s much more than a construction site. First Nations people know it by another name: nadunga gurad, or sand dune Country.
For millenia, the area has been known for its nattai bamalmarray: freshwater wetlands and seasonal ponds. This Country has always been an important refuge along the Songline routes that connect War’ran (Sydney Cove) to Gamay (Botany Bay).
To existing residents, Green Square is home. It’s also a place to walk, visit parks, shop, and talk to neighbours, shopkeepers and tradies.
But it can be hard to see the “green” in Green Square. It’s a disrupted place punctuated by huge pits in the ground, roadworks, scaffoldings, barriers and cranes.
We’ve been working on connecting residents, workers and visitors to the local environment. We hope our project becomes a template to help anyone engage more deeply with their neighbourhood.
An image from 2013 showing plans for Green Square. City of Sydney
An atlas for change
Green Square spans the inner east Sydney suburbs of Zetland, Beaconsfield, Rosebery, Alexandria and Waterloo. In 2020, the site was home to 34,000 people and this number is growing rapidly.
During lockdowns last year, we and the charity 107 Projects sought to connect residents, workers and visitors to nature and people in their suburb. It involved workshops, walks and a map for self-guided tours. We also collected stories in a book, just released. It includes stories about:
Atlases have historically been, and continue to be, tools of colonisation – cataloguing and archiving the status quo.
But done right, they can also help us understand places in new ways. In Australia, this includes recognising we are always on Indigenous Country.
In that vein, our atlas includes an important contribution by Shannon Foster, a registered Sydney Traditional Owner and local D’harawal eora Knowledge Keeper.
Shannon Foster, middle, a Traditional Owner who contributed to the atlas. Jo Kinniburgh
Ngeeyinee dingan duruwan bata
Foster tells how, amid dense urban development at Green Square, unique plants from ancient ecosystems still emerge from undeveloped gullies.
These include paperbark trees, casuarina groves, clumps of kangaroo grass and lomandra, and regenerated areas of Eastern Suburbs Banksia Scrub.
As Foster says in this edited extract:
One of my earliest memories of learning culture from my D’harawal eora father was about understanding plants and what you could and couldn’t eat. I was always amazed to realise that you could actually live off the gardens and earth around you.
Today, one of my favourite edible plants is bamuru (kangaroo grass), not just because you can make a delicious, gluten-free, light and tasty bread from it, but because it represents the un-forgetting of knowledges and stories that have been silenced and, sometimes, erased from our lives.
There are places across Sydney Country, especially on abandoned and neglected land, that bamuru and other edible crops like bundago (native daisy yam) flourish again. These plants begin to grow in vast fields, echoing their ancient, agricultural past and the careful management of Country by local custodians like my D’harawal eora family.
The awakening of these remnant crops is a reminder that Country is its own archive, holding seeds and stories as evidence that we do indeed exist and that we have long and complex relationships with Country that can never be erased.
Now, as I walk the streets of Green Square, I look for signs of old Country breaking through the centuries of colonial development.
I dream of this place as it was, sand dunes and wetlands, galumban gurad (sacred Country), and I marvel at the fragile seedlings who, against all odds, break through the oppressive concrete and pavers to stand tall, once again, with Country.
I also honour the same spirit in my elders and ancestors who have raised me to understand that it doesn’t matter how much concrete is laid down, Country is still here and is still nurturing and sheltering us, just as it always has been and always will be.
– Ngeeyinee dingan duruwan bata (May you always taste the sweetest fruit).
Always was, always will be
Foster reminds us no matter how much we build on Country, it has always been – and remains – vital to life and culture for local custodians.
More broadly, the atlas aims to show we can improve city life and the urban environment – just by how we interact with one another, and treat the plants, animals and insects around us.
Small actions can improve city life and the urban environment. Ilaria Vanni
If this idea appeals to you, download a free copy of the atlas and try these activities to help you “tune in” to your local area:
find out whose Country are you on
save and exchange seeds from native plants and heirloom food varieties
get to know your local plant species, especially the endangered ones
make and maintain a verge garden
start or join a community garden
forage for wild foods, such as edible weeds
conserve water
create habitat for urban wildlife
spend time at nearby natural places such as ponds and parks
cut waste, to reduce pressure on city services and the planet
look for trees providing shelter on hot days.
These small, slow actions help create connections to nature and place, and opportunities to meet and share with people in your community. These connections are vital to overcoming the downsides of urban renewal.
And as we remake urban places, we must remember: our neighbourhood always was, and always will be, unceded Aboriginal land.
Shannon Foster is the founding partner and creative co-Director at bangawarra, Connecting with Country Spatial Design.
The Green Square Atlas of Civic Ecologies was funded by the Council of the City of Sydney and supported by the University of Technology Sydney Climate, Society and Environment Research Centre (C-SERC).
The Green Square Atlas of Civic Ecologies was funded by the Council of the City of Sydney and supported by the University of Technology Sydney Climate, Society and Environment Research Centre (C-SERC)
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Themiya Nanayakkara, Chief Astronomer at the James Webb Australian Data Centre, Swinburne University of Technology
NASA
The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has finally been aligned to produce the first unified image of a single star – marking a huge milestone.
Most traditional telescopes these days (like one you might have in your backyard) have a single primary mirror that collects distant light from stars. But the JWST has 18 mirrors! These had to be aligned extremely precisely to capture the image NASA released today.
This gif shows the several intermediary images of stars used for the crucial JWST mirror alignment process. NASA/Twitter
The challenge with JWST
The JWST is the largest telescope humans have ever sent into space. It’s so big that none of our rockets can carry it when fully extended. As such, it was designed to be neatly folded to fit inside the cargo hold atop an Ariane 5 launch vehicle.
The telescope uses segmented mirror technology. This technology has been in use for a few decades now by some of the largest optical telescopes in the world, including the Keck Observatory in Hawaii (which has two 10m-diameter mirrors, each made of 36 hexagonal segments).
The main challenge with the JWST was being able to unfold it to its fully extended form in space, under extreme conditions of heat and cold, and with no human assistance. This process began in January.
Once the mirror segments were unfolded, they had to be aligned so all 18 combined to form a single 6.5m-diameter curved mirror.
The NIRCam is the optical system that captures images on the James Webb Space Telescope. NASA, CC BY
But how was this done?
There are seven small motors fixed behind each of the JWST’s 18 slightly curved hexagonal mirrors. Their purpose is to move and reshape the curvature of each segment so that all 18 segments can act as a single large mirror.
Six of these motors are grouped in three equally distanced pairs, located around each mirror segment. These are used to move the mirror.
The seventh motor is at the centre, and is connected to the mirror’s six corners with struts. This motor can adjust the tension of the struts to optimise the curvature of that mirror segment.
The motors can move the mirrors very precisely, to within about 1/10,000th of the diameter of a human hair. This precision (to within a fraction of a wavelength of light) is important for obtaining high quality images from the telescope.
NASA scientists would have used a mathematical analysis called “phase retrieval” to study how the movement of each individual segment changed the sharpness of the final image.
Once they had this information, there were two crucial tasks to complete before the segments could function as a single, monolithic mirror: coarse alignment and fine alignment.
Coarse and fine alignment
In coarse alignment, the mirror segments were moved vertically (up and down) until they all aligned to form one giant mirror. However, there were still minute alignment errors that needed to be corrected to obtain the best possible image.
This is where the fine alignment happens. In this process, rather than moving the telescope’s mirror segments, the small optics inside NIRCam are moved instead.
When the JWST is pointed at a star, the light from the star first hits the primary mirror, in which the individual segments are now aligned reasonably well.
The light from the star then continues its path through the secondary and tertiary mirrors inside the telescope and enters the NIRCam instrument. During the fine alignment, the optics inside NIRCam are very carefully adjusted until the star is completely in focus.
There are four different types of mirrors on the Webb telescope: primary mirror segments, the secondary mirror, tertiary mirror and the fine steering mirror. NASA/Ball Aerospace/Tinsley, CC BY
The coarse and fine alignment steps are both repeated until the sharpest image can be obtained. The image released by NASA this week shows how a star looks when these steps are complete.
Prior to the coarse and fine alignment being complete, NASA released a “stacked” image likely of the same star back in February.
For this, each of the individual mirror segments were fine-tuned to create 18 separate sharp images of the star, but each from a slightly different vantage point. The 18 images were then stacked to produce the image below.
NASA scientists stacked the 18 individual images captured by the primary mirror segments to create a stacked image. NASA
The next steps
While the successful testing of the NIRCam is a breakthrough for the JWST, there are many more steps to be completed before it can fulfil its potential.
Next NASA will look at how the other instruments perform with images of stars and do further fine tuning to the optics in those instruments. After this, the instrument commissioning phase will start. Apart from NIRCam, there are three other instruments on board the JWST: NIRSpec, NIRISS, and MIRI.
While NIRCam will primarily provide images of the Universe over the near-infrared part of the electromagnetic spectrum, NIRSpec can split that light to study different signatures (variations in the properties of the incoming light).
NIRISS will provide similar functionality to NIRCam, while MIRI will look at the Universe at much higher wavelengths (reaching the mid infrared range).
All the instruments will now be brought to their working temperatures and tested. Some initial steps have already begun and all indications so far are good. Many of the steps have redundancies built into them, which means if a system should fail, there will be another way to achieve the same objective.
You can keep up to date with the JWST’s activities online.
In a few countries – already noted – there has been a recent rise in deaths that may be due to omicron-covid. In many other countries there has not been a notable rise in excess deaths, despite rises in recorded deaths with Covid19.
Chile
Chart by Keith Rankin.
Chile’s omicron-wave of covid looks more like a severe extension to its late-2021 delta-wave. The big difference is that it is now older Chileans who are dying, whereas in 2020 and 2021 there were unusually large numbers of younger deaths. Chile made a bigger effort than most to protect its older population, with (for example) a strictish prioritisation of older people for vaccination. Maybe we are now seeing that immunity has waned more in older people, because of these past measures to protect them. Or maybe, omicron-covid, which is generally mild and is well on the way to becoming another ‘common cold’ virus, has a disproportionate impact on those populations whose deaths are commonly cited as ‘due to old age’.
USA
Chart by Keith Rankin.
The USA is much like Chile (and unlike most countries) in that unusually large numbers of younger people died from covid. This is less true for the most recent uptick in American deaths. While many of these 2022 deaths were due to delta-covid, the upsurge in covid deaths of older people came with the omicron wave of cases.
Israel
Chart by Keith Rankin.
Israel has consistently seen more fatalities of older people, unlike these previous two countries. This seems to be especially pronounced in its latest wave. Though, as for the USA, many of these deaths will have been from the second delta-wave that saw case numbers rise markedly in December. This is of some concern, because of the proactive vaccination policies that Israel pursued.
Greece and Bulgaria
Chart by Keith Rankin.Chart by Keith Rankin.
Greece, like its neighbour Bulgaria, was unusually late to get a wave of covid fatalities. This may have been in part due to significant influenza being present in both countries in February 2020. Most countries ‘paid the price’, however, in 2021.
Like Chile and the United States, they had unusually high numbers of younger fatalities. And like Chile and USA, the latest wave of fatalities seems to be more focussed on those who are older.
Speculation
My sense is, in the coming ‘omicron-winter’ in the southern hemisphere, there will be unusually large numbers of older people dying with Covid19. More like a bad flu season than what we have seen in the above countries last year.
We urgently need to investigate death rates of older people in years following years (such as the year ended October 2020) when relatively few older people died from respiratory illnesses. And we need to learn more about the extent to which recent waves of these kinds of viruses may both protect or aggravate the life expectancy of people in the older age groups more vulnerable to viruses of the respiratory tract.
*******
Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.
Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Guy Debelle has left the building. Wednesday was his last day. Six days after his shock resignation, he has departed to become chief financial officer at the green energy firm Fortescue Future Industries.
Which leaves Treasurer Josh Frydenberg scrambling to find a replacement.
Do you have what it takes to be Australia’s number two central banker?
Whoever Treasurer Frydenberg picks will be in prime position to slide into the number one job when Governor Philip Lowe’s term ends in September 2023.
Traditionally the keys to the vault in a basement on Sydney’s Martin Place have been held tightly by insiders – a long apprenticeship toiling on the upper floors of the Martin Place headquarters has been the main prerequisite.
But if the process was more open, what would a formal job interview entail?
So you can try your monetary mettle at home, here’s what a formal interview might look like, complete with suggested answers so you can test yourself.
1. Under what circumstances would you hike the cash rate by 0.50 percentage points?
Hiking 0.50 percentage points for the first time in decades would be “courageous”. 0.50 is double the usual 0.25, but it might be necessary. Certainly a case could have been made for it when inflation was spiralling out of control during the mining boom ahead of the global financial crisis.
So when would be the right time? When inflation was running at 4%? At 5%?
While there is no single correct answer, the answer you give is an opportunity to demonstrate your inflation-fighting credentials.
2. What, in your opinion, was the biggest monetary policy mistake in the inflation-targeting era?
Crafting policy in real time is always fraught with difficulty, and mistakes are inevitable. But it is only by recognising our mistakes we can make fewer.
While the Reserve Bank has an enviable record in comparison to most other central banks, it is not a perfect one.
While the undershooting of inflation from 2016-2021 was perhaps the biggest policy error, the high inflation that occurred in the lead up to the global financial crisis was another.
3. If you had to choose between lowering the inflation target band to 1-2% or lifting it to 3-4% which would you choose?
The answer should be obvious. One of the biggest lessons from the past decade of macroeconomics has been that inflation targets have been set too low in most OECD economies, so low that interest rates have had to be set close to zero to get real interest rates (rates minus inflation) down.
While there are good reasons to be cautious about changing the inflation target, if forced to choose between increasing or decreasing it, there is only one correct answer.
4. If you were trapped on a desert island and could only pick one data series to guide your decisions what would it be?
It would be hard to walk past inflation, given its prominence in the RBA charter (though a good answer would choose the trimmed-mean over the headline rate).
If asked for a second data series, the answer should focus on the second part of the mandate and be a measure of real activity such as the unemployment rate, although that isn’t that useful without a firm idea of what the floor under unemployment should be. Alernatively a more crisis-minded candidate might choose a fast-moving financial variable (such as spreads on bank debt) so they could quickly respond to sudden shocks.
5. Suppose a board member starts leaking and backgrounding against the consensus position. What would you do?
An improbable scenario, but certainly possible. It would be a nightmare of a scenario with no clear-cut answers – especially if you didn’t know which board member was leaking.
Perhaps you could go to the treasurer and ask for a completely new slate of board members, even with the terrible look that would send to the country.
Or perhaps there’s a case for radically transparency where board members can vent their feelings (if not the bank’s confidential data). It’s not such a bad answer.
The treasurer is expected to announce the successful candidate before the government goes into election caretaker mode in April.
Isaac Gross does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Harris Rimmer, Professor and Director of the Policy Innovation Hub, Griffith Business School, Griffith University
With just two months to go before a federal election is due, we are being bombarded by broadcast ads and yellow billboards around Australia. Funded by Clive Palmer and endorsing his United Australia Party (UAP), they carry a simple message: FREEDOM FREEDOM FREEDOM.
Commentators have talked about the potential demographic these ads are designed to attract, and the relationship of the messaging and Palmer to the anti-vax movement, “freedom rallies” and convoys.
We should not underestimate the power of freedom messaging. As a society, we have experienced unprecedented constraints on normal freedoms over the past two years. Regardless of any justification for relevant restrictions, a visceral backlash from a significant number of people should not be surprising.
In late July 2021, we conducted a human rights survey of 1,000 people in Queensland. The following question, which was not mandatory, garnered about 800 valid responses: What are the human rights that are most important to you?
While issues relating to equality and discrimination attracted the most responses, the combined total for “freedom of speech” and “freedom” generally was 28.7%. If we add “freedom from vaccines”, that goes up to 29.9%.
While many have dismissed the “freedom protests” across Australia as fringe movements, this survey indicates that nearly 30% of those who responded to this question felt “freedom” of some sort to be the most important human right. And this was in Queensland, which did not have the same experience of lockdowns as Victoria and New South Wales.
“Freedom” tends to denote a preference for government non-interference. But the responses regarding vulnerability and safety (which a combined 12.3% listed as their top priority human rights issues, and, arguably, economic social and cultural rights and equality/discrimination, for a combined 31.97%), tend to favour greater government intervention and action.
There were divergent views on this question among different demographics. For example, men were significantly more concerned than women about freedom of speech (19.6% compared to 13.7%) and civil and political rights (20% compared to 12.2%).
The oldest respondents were those most likely to choose “freedom”, and especially “freedom of speech”. First Nations respondents were much more likely to choose economic social and cultural rights (19% compared to 12.6%), and less than one-third as likely to choose civil and political rights (4.8% compared to 15.6%).
We found the higher the respondents’ level of education, the less concerned they were with equality and discrimination, while concern with civil and political rights increased. As a final example, concerns about “freedom of speech” and “freedom” were much higher among lower-to-middle-income groups compared to wealthier respondents.
The demographic differences are not easy to interpret. The results might indicate the groups that are traditionally more vulnerable to rights abuses (for example, women, First Nations people, the less educated) are more likely to prioritise rights that seem to require proactive government.
However, the results are not entirely in keeping with this observation. Concerns over freedom were more apparent among lower-income groups compared to higher-income groups, and among older Queenslanders.
What it clearly tells us, though, is that it is vitally important to reclaim the word “freedom” as a human rights concept. The political conversation this year needs to remind people that “freedom” is important, but other concepts also inform human rights. These are, notably, equality, fraternity and dignity: freedom is not absolute.
“Freedom to” and “freedom from” are rights that must be balanced against one another: for example, the right to make religious statements and the rights of trans children to an education.
Government non-interference might, for example, seem desirable to many when it comes to personal choices. But it is certainly undesirable when, for example, people need help recovering from floods or in gaining access to medical treatment.
Opponents of the UAP should avoid anti-freedom messaging. They should focus instead on reclaiming the word freedom as an emancipatory ideal that is a core component of human rights, but not the only one.
Susan Harris Rimmer receives funding from the Australian Research Council and ONI.
Sarah Joseph does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
In a world first, two Australians with bipolar have had poo transplants, their symptoms improved, and their cases written up in peer-reviewedjournals.
One of us (Parker) treated the second of these patients with so-called faecal microbiota transplantation, and published his case study in recent weeks. The other (Green) is part of a team recruiting people with depression to a poo transplant clinical trial.
We’d be the first to admit it’s early days for this type of treatment for bipolar or other mental health issues. There are many hurdles before we could see poo transplants for these become commonplace.
So we do not advocate people abandon their existing medication, try this at home or demand their psychiatrist offer them a “crapsule” (a poo capsule and yes, that’s a word).
Yet the limited results for bipolar so far are promising. Here’s what the evidence tells us about the prospect of poo transplants for mental health.
There are different types of bipolar disorder. This is when people have distinct periods of mania (or a form known as hypomania) – with, for example, elevated mood, increased activity and decreased sleep – and periods of depression.
People with bipolar usually take medication to manage their symptoms, generally for life. These medications are mainly mood stabilisers (such as lithium), but many also take antipsychotics. These medications come with risks and side effects, which depend on the medication. Side effects can include weight gain, sedation and movement disorders.
What happened to the two patients?
In 2020, Russell Hinton, a private psychiatrist, described how he treated the first patient. This was a woman who had tried more than a dozen different medications for her bipolar. She had been hospitalised ten times, had gained considerable weight and judged she had no quality of life.
After a poo transplant from her husband, she became symptom-free over the next five years, lost 33 kilograms, required no medication and her career bloomed.
Gordon Parker and colleagues at the University of New South Wales reported their results with the second patient last month. This was a young man who developed bipolar as a teenager, had tried numerous medications and became progressively intolerant of their side effects.
After a poo transplant, he was able to progressively cease all medications over the next year, and had virtually no mood swings. He also noted an improvement in his anxiety and ADHD (attention deficit hyperactivity disorder).
The idea behind poo transplants is to change the gut microbiome. You take poo, with all its micro-organisms, from a healthy person and give it to the one being treated.
You can do this “top down”, for example, by swallowing poo capsules (crapsules), or by delivering poo through a tube inserted into the nose, to the stomach or intestine.
Alternatively, you can insert the poo “bottom up”. You can do this with an enema, a simple, painless procedure in which a syringe transfers the poo into the rectum. Or you can use a colonoscopy, a procedure performed under a general anaesthetic involving inserting a tube higher up into the colon.
Poo transplants are already used to treat the often life-threatening gut infection caused by the bacterium Clostridium difficile.
Side effects from poo transplants are rare, and usually relate to the way in which they are given, for example side effects of the anaesthetic from poo transplants delivered by colonoscopy.
So how about mental health?
Abnormal gut microbiomes have been linked to bipolar, depression and schizophrenia.
These are indirect findings. Yet they suggest poo transplants may have the potential to treat some mental health conditions.
So how exactly do bacteria in the gut impact mental health? There are many different ways, each complicated and interacting with each other.
For example, these bacteria act directly on the gut wall, sending signals to the brain via the vagus nerve. The bacteria also produce large quantities of chemicals (for example, short-chain fatty acids), which impact virtually all body systems including the immune system. We know brain function relies heavily on immune cells.
At this stage, any evidence suggesting poo transplants may help people with depression or bipolar is, essentially, anecdotal.
Some people have tried their own version at home, involving poo donors who have not been screened for diseases.
One high-profile example is Dave Hosking from the Australian band Boy & Bear. He used a “poo roadie” to provide him with transplants on tour to help manage his depression and anxiety.
We wouldn’t recommend this. Poo transplants should only be carried out under the supervision of medical professionals, using an approved and thoroughly screened poo product.
Poo transplants are tightly regulated in Australia. Donations must be screened for harmful bacteria, fungi, parasites or viruses. Donors must also not have any health condition thought to be associated with gut bacteria, such as an autoimmune condition, cancer or obesity.
We need larger, well-designed studies to show poo transplants have a real effect, and any improved symptoms cannot be explained by other factors.
We also need to look for markers in the microbiome that could predict a successful result. If we knew those markers, we could optimise treatment and better measure the results.
The first author’s centre is recruiting people with depression to trial poo transplants. The study will randomise participants to have an enema or placebo enema. If successful, a larger study is planned.
Though promising, we cannot conclude at this time whether poo transplants work for bipolar or depression.
Until the results of these studies are in, it’s too early to say if the early results with bipolar can be replicated on a larger scale.
If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.
Jessica Green is affiliated with:
1. Food & Mood Centre, IMPACT, Deakin University
2. Department of Psychiatry, Peninsula Health
3. Monash Alfred Psychiatry Research Centre, Monash University
Gordon Parker is affiliated with the Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health
School of Clinical Medicine, University of New South Wales
PODCAST: Buchanan + Manning: Can Deterrence be an effective tool against Putin's offensive in Ukraine?
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A View from Afar – In this podcast, political scientist Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning unpack why the west has been losing a strategic deterrence advantage against Russian Federation president Vladimir Putin, but equally how this may be about to change.
In this episode Buchanan and Manning analyse whether deterrence, in its various forms, is an effective tool against aggressive authoritarian opponents and specifically why NATO and the United States has been at a disadvantage when attempting to use deterrence to gain leverage over Putin and the Russian offensive occurring against Ukraine and its peoples.
Also, we know about the rules and conventions that prevent NATO and the United Nations from defending Ukrainians on Ukraine territory.
But what of the Responsibility to Protect principles, RTPs designed to defend vulnerable and helpless populations? The RTP principle was invoked against Serbia and Kosovo in the late 1990s and led to NATO forces bombing Belgrade. Why has it not been used for humanitarian principles in 2022?
Also, Buchanan and Manning examine the concepts of shatter and peripheral zones when it comes to war, and why Central Europe is the core shatter zone of past and present global conflict.
You can comment on this debate by clicking on one of these social media channels and interacting in the social media’s comment area. Here are the links:
Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category. You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Miles Pattenden, Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Religion and Critical Inquiry, Australian Catholic University
St. Gertrude de Nivelles, from the Hours of Cardinal Albrecht of Brandenburg. Simon Bening 1522-1523Carnegie Museum of Art
These days many celebrate St Patrick’s Day, even if they’re not Irish.
Happily, the Catholic Church has a range of options for every day of its liturgical calendar so there’s an alternative celebration today for those who would forsake their Guinness, day drinking, and neon-green shamrocks.
Born around 628, she died on this day in 659 but in that short life had time to found a monastery and rule as its abbess. Her remarkable story provides as valuable record of events during a dark time deep in the European past as that of Olga of Kyiv.
And her abbey still stands today, having survived attack by the forces of Revolutionary France in 1794 and bombing by the German Luftwaffe in 1940.
Gertrude’s posthumous legacy also reveals something quirky about the Catholic Church: its unquenchable enthusiasm for having a saint for everything.
Gertrude was born into what was to become the most illustrious dynasty of early medieval Europe. Her father was Mayor of the Palace of Austrasia (no, that’s not a typo). The mayor was the highest ranking official in the service of the Frankish King Dagobert. But the mayors soon usurped the kings to take the throne for themselves.
Gertrude’s great-great-great-nephew was Charlemagne, who became the first Holy Roman Emperor on Christmas Day 800.
Gertrude was only a minor player in this game of thrones, but her anonymous biographer tells us that as a 10-year-old girl she refused King Dagobert’s offer to find her a nice duke to marry. Indeed, she “lost her temper and flatly rejected him with an oath, saying that she would have… no any earthly spouse but Christ the Lord”.
Normally, such medieval powerbrokers took no notice of a child’s wishes when they had political alliances to arrange. But Gertrude struck it lucky or miraculous. King Dagobert died the following year with her own father following just months later.
The 640s were a perilous time to be a teenage girl or a widowed wife, but Gertrude and her mother Itta, liberated, managed to chart their own course in life.
Gertrude’s biographer tells us that Itta shaved her daughter’s hair, so that violent abductors could not tear her away by force. What was left behind looked suspiciously like a tonsure – the outward sign that pious men were already using to show their devotion to a celibate religious life.
And so, in due course, Gertrude and her mother established their monastery. After Itta died in 652 Gertrude became the sisters’ unchallenged abbess. She “obtained through her envoy’s men of good reputation, relics of saints and holy books from Rome, and from regions across the sea, experienced men for the teaching of the divine law and to practice the chants for herself and her people.”
She welcomed foreigners, lay or religious, in particular monks from Ireland whose flourishing communities represented the ongoing fruits of Patrick’s recent efforts.
A 1619 engraving of St Gertrude, standing, holding an open book and an abbot’s crook on which mice are seen climbing. The Trustees of the British Museum, CC BY
From nuns to cats
Gertrude’s path to feline favour has been a circuitous one. In truth, little in the medieval version of her legend justifies it. Rather the association itself speaks to a particular pathology in certain forms of Christianity.
Catholics, Anglicans, and Eastern Orthodox all recognise patron saints: special figures among the avowedly blessed whom, by choice or by venerable tradition, particular groups have taken on as their primary intercessor with God.
The idea for such patron saints first emerged in the Middle Ages when certain saints became particularly associated with places where they lived (like Patrick in Ireland) or where they were said to work their miracles (like Thomas à Becket at Canterbury). Some saints were also recognised for particular efficacy when interceding to cure particular conditions.
Gertrude seems to have acquired a reputation of this latter kind after the time of the Black Death. In the Low Countries and Western Germany, she was said to protect against rats and the diseases they brought with them.
From there it was only a short leap to making her patron of the creatures that 15th-century folk used to keep those rats in check. And yet, there is no clear evidence that Gertrude was depicted in such a role until well into the 20th century.
Detail of a 15th-century wall painting with scenes from the life and legend of Saint Gertrude of Nivelles in a chapel of the south aisle in Kruisherenkerk, Maastricht, the Netherlands. This fragment depicts Saint Getrude quenching a fire. Wikipedia
Her elevation to celestial guardian of the mousers speaks to a curious development in which popes themselves have encouraged the idea that there ought to be a saint for everything.
Gertrude is by no means the Middle Ages’ strangest or most obscure saint. That honour surely still goes to St Guinefort, the “Holy Greyhound” – an actual dog – who gave his life to save a baby boy from a snake and whose local veneration in 13th-century France scandalised Church leaders in Paris and Rome.
Contemporary illustration of Saint Guinefort, a greyhound sainted by people in the Dombes region of France around the 13th century. L. Bower/ Wikimedia Commons
Yet Gertrude’s example underlines the sheer quantity and variety of those whom Catholics claim to have reached Heaven.
There’s a medieval saint out there for everything and everyone: so why not go and find yours?
Miles Pattenden has previously received research funding from the British Academy, the European Commission, and the Government of Spain.
Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana is the United Nations Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana – United Nations Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary ESCAP.
Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana is the United Nations Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
2022 marks the second anniversary of the COVID-19 pandemic, and while an end to the pandemic is in sight, it is far from over and the consequences will be felt for decades to come. At the same time, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is becoming increasingly distant. The region must use the 17 Sustainable Development Goals as a roadmap to a fairer recovery.
This year’s edition of the Asia and the Pacific SDG Progress Report published by ESCAP reveals three alarming trends. First, the region is losing ground in its 2030 ambitions. In addition to our slowed progress, human-made crises and natural disasters have also hampered our ability to achieve the Goals. We are seeing the gaps grow wider with each passing year: at its current pace, Asia and the Pacific is now only expected to achieve the 17 Sustainable Development Goals by 2065 – three-and-a-half decades behind the original goalpost. The region must seize every opportunity to arrest this downward trend and accelerate progress.
Second, while headway on some of the Goals has been made in scattered pockets around the region, we are moving in a reverse direction for some of them at a disturbing rate. Although the climate crisis has become more acute, there has been regression on responsible consumption and production (Goal 12) and climate action (Goal 13). And the news is marginally better for targets dealing with industry, innovation, and infrastructure (Goal 9) and affordable and clean energy (Goal 7) as they fall short of the pace required to meet the 2030 Agenda.
Lastly, the need to reach those who are furthest behind has never been greater. The region is experiencing widening disparities and increased vulnerabilities. The most vulnerable and disadvantaged groups — including women, children, people with disabilities, migrants and refugees, rural populations and poorer households — are the victims of our unsustainable and non-inclusive development trends. Some groups with distinct demographic or socioeconomic characteristics are disproportionately excluded from progress in Asia and the Pacific. Understanding the intersection of key development challenges with population characteristics such as age, gender, race, ethnicity, health, location, migratory status and income is critical to achieving a more equitable recovery. We must work together as a region to ensure that no one or no country falls behind.
Although these trends are extremely worrying, there is some good news that helps our understanding of them: The number of indicators with data available have doubled since 2017. Collaboration between national and international custodian agencies for the indicators of the Sustainable Development Goals has significantly contributed to enhancing the availability of data. We must, however, continue to strengthen this cooperation to close the remaining gaps, as 57 of the 169 SDG targets still cannot be measured.
The sole focus on economic recovery post-pandemic is likely to hinder progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, which was already lagging to begin with. As the region strives to build back better and recover, the 2030 Agenda can serve as a guiding mechanism for both economic and social development. We – the governments, stakeholders and United Nations organizations that support them – must maintain our collective commitment towards a more prosperous and greener world.
Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana is Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Secretary of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael (Mike) Joy, Senior Researcher; Institute for Governance and Policy Studies, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington
GettyImages
Prime minister Jacinda Ardern is due to meetdue to meet the leaders of last year’s Groundswell protests, who argue that environmental regulation and the “ute tax” have hurt parts of the primary sector and, by extension, the rest of the country. But economic data tell a different story than the farmers claim.
The financial contribution the agriculture sector makes to society by way of tax paid is dwarfed by the financial benefit that the sector receives by way of subsidies, concessions and other forms of assistance.
Considering the net benefits already delivered to farmers, there’s no justification to provide more support for the sector by further subsidising their environmental damage.
Special concessions for the agricultural industry
In terms of support, there are several unique tax concessions offered to parts of the agricultural sector not extended to other industries. These include special rules for deductibility of housing and capital expenses that aren’t available for other businesses.
In 2018, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced an assistance package for farmers to combat mycoplasma bovis, a bacterial disease that affects cattle, causing mastitis and arthritis in adult cattle and pneumonia in calves. Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images
In another tax workaround, agricultural industry access to an income equalisation scheme allows income smoothing.
Under this scheme, primary sector businesses are able to deposit money into the scheme during profitable years and build this up as a deduction. The money is then treated as income in the year it is withdrawn, reducing taxes in lean years.
More support during tough times
Government support for farmers is not limited to tax exemptions. Spending on primary services in 2019/20 was NZ$961 million and forecast to increase to $1.3 billion in 2020/21. Public money goes into biosecurity risk management, food safety and fisheries management.
Between 2018 and 2021, the Ministry of Primary Industries (MPI) spent $368 million on mycoplasma bovis eradication. Farmers were compensated an additional $151 million during that time.
The cost of recovery was meant to be split 32%-68% by industry and the ministry respectively. But as of June 30 2021, MPI reported recoverable costs of $172.6 million, of which a $72.4 million bill to farmers remained outstanding.
Economic contribution comes with environmental cost
It is not that the agriculture industry does not add value. About 5.5% of total New Zealand jobs were in agriculture, forestry and fishing in March 2019, according to the Household Labour Force Survey. At the same time, the industry made up 10.6% of the national gross domestic product.
The co-founders of farming advocacy group Groundswell, Laurie Paterson (left) and Bryce McKenzie delivered a petition to Parliament on December 15, 2021 calling on the NZ Government to dump its proposed Three Waters reform. Lynn Grieveson/Getty Images
Agriculture’s higher share of GDP than employment reflects the sector’s high reliance on our natural environment to produce its output. However, this economic value comes at both a significant financial and environmental cost, often hidden, much of which falls on future generations.
The decision-making around Te Waihora (Lake Ellesmere) in Canterbury is one example of an indirect subsidy to intensive farming. Te Waihora is dying due to excess nutrient inputs, 95% of which come from dairy farms.
Analysis by the regional council Environment Canterbury (ECan) and the Ministry for the Environment (MfE) found two key measures to stop the lake declining would result in an annual loss of revenue for local dairy farmers of around $250 million.
ECan concluded this economic impact for farmers was too high and did nothing. By not charging the polluters for this harm, ECan effectively handed a subsidy to dairy farmers in this catchment to the tune of $250 million every year.
The ECan decision is similar to those made by other councils.
A recent study by Christchurch City Council estimated the costs to remove the nitrate from dairy farming from their drinking water to protect human health came in at $1.5 billion or almost $4,000 per person in the city.
Almost half of New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions come from agriculture in the form of methane and nitrous oxide from farmed livestock. Here, the decision to exempt livestock from New Zealand’s emissions trading scheme is another subsidy to the sector. In dollar terms, the 2019 annual net emissions from agriculture at today’s carbon price ($72/tonne CO2e) amounts to $878 million.
Uneven tax burden
There is no doubt agriculture provides some benefit to New Zealand but this benefit is declining, at the same time that subsidies to the sector are increasing.
While the sector pays tax on income like everyone else, the amount paid by the dairy sector ($531.7 million in 2019/20 – or 0.7% of total tax revenue) looks to be substantially less than the costs associated with transfers from the government back to the sector and remediation of environmental damage caused by the sector.
A briefing paper to the Tax Working Group in 2019 observed that the tax deduction rules for agriculture had not been reviewed in 30 years, revealing a lack of appetite to challenge the industry’s privileged position.
The political reluctance to hold the sector to account for its environmental damage while passing the cost on to the rest of society is even more problematic. This damage reduces the standard of living of many people living in Aotearoa and increases the economic and environmental debt for future generations.
So, while some in the agricultural sector argue that environmental regulation hurts the industry and therefore the rest of the country, there is a clear counterproposal: harm is done to the country when the rest of society pays for the damage created in the agricultural sector.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
The combination of COVID fears and the appeal of so-called “convenience voting” will see record low numbers of South Australians attend polling booths on Saturday.
As a consequence, it is a safe bet we won’t know on election night whether Premier Steven Marshall’s Liberals are returned to office or Labor’s Peter Malinauskas manages to reassert Labor’s grip on SA politics.
Over the past 50 years, SA Labor has governed about 70% of the time. Essentially, Labor’s superior marginal seat campaign strategy combined with strong leadership – aided by the Liberals’ perpetual disunity – explains this success.
The Marshall government is in minority, and opinion suggests momentum is with Labor. But neither party would feel confident that majority government is likely.
Significantly, at least until the past year, Marshall managed to unite his party room. It was a vital reason behind his victory in 2018 as finally, after four electoral defeats, the Liberals appeared ready to govern.
However, during 2021, three Liberals found themselves on the crossbench, either through choice or expulsion. Narungga MP Fraser Ellis found the heat of ICAC investigations of alleged electoral allowance fraud was not popular with the premier, while Kavel MP Dan Cregan was frustrated with Marshall’s lack of interest in his electorate’s needs.
Quite a saga enveloped Sam Duluk whose “drunken pest” behaviour at a 2020 Christmas party resulted in him being charged with assaulting SA Best MP Connie Bonaros. Acquitted of the charge, he is running a vigorous campaign in Waite against his old party and a prominent independent candidate.
Acquitted of an assault charge arising from a party, former Liberal Sam Duluk is running against his former party in the seat of Waite. David Mariuz/AAP
In minority for much of 2021, the government suffered frequent embarrassment. The most notable was when Labor, with crossbench support, voted to oust Speaker Josh Teague in favour of Cregan.
All the independent MPs are contesting the 2022 poll and, if the result is a hung parliament, the question will be which way they and Troy Bell lean.
Marshall pegs his hopes on the economy and COVID management
Marshall’s campaign rests squarely on economic policy and his government’s handling of the pandemic. A year ago, the state’s growth rate outstripped the nation’s, a rarity for SA. This, combined with the lowest unemployment rate in 40 years and unprecedented nett migration to SA, now feature in Marshall’s pitch to voters.
Moreover, there is a certain dazzling element accompanying his frequent announcements relating to the space industry development on the old Royal Adelaide Hospital site in the heart of Adelaide.
The government’s management of COVID was, until borders opened in early November, set to follow recent state election results and render great electoral benefit.
However, within a few months this diminished, as opinion divided over whether or not the government opened the borders too soon last November. Throughout December and January, COVID-related hospitalisations and deaths increased, unnerving large sections of the community.
COVID management was once a strong plus for the government – but after SA’s borders were opened it became more controversial. David Mariuz/AAP
Hospitalisation rates are now in steady decline. However, it seems many voters may be unforgiving, given Marshall rejected the state’s chief medical officer’s recommendation to close borders again once the outbreak in December looked to be unmanageable.
On the other hand, Marshall knew the Liberals’ core constituency – small businesses and in particular the hospitality sector – were desperate for the state to stay open.
Marshall is at pains to convince voters that ex-union leader Malinauskas has no economic credibility. The government hopes voters will focus squarely on matters of economic credibility, and to that end employs the classic campaign clarion call, “where’s the money coming from?”
This is a fair question, given Labor’s health spending approximates $1 billion and overall spending promises, as Malinauskas conceded during the leaders’ debate, have reached $2.7 billion.
Nevertheless, given we now live in a COVID-inspired era of big government and huge debt, it is doubtful this line of attack resonates as it may have in the past. Many voters simply want things fixed, especially in the health system.
Perhaps aware of this conundrum, the Liberal campaign seeks to remind voters of the former Labor government’s cuts to the health system, notably the closure of the popular Repatriation Hospital.
In a nutshell, the Liberals’ attack efforts appear rather lame compared with Labor’s sharper negative focus, as is evident in crude, but arguably devastating Labor messages.
On the question of supporting renewable energy, there is broad consensus – likewise on the matter of supporting a hydrogen hub in SA. However, the means to that end reflect a classic Liberal–Labor ideological divide. Labor proposes a state-owned green hydrogen venture next to Whyalla’s steelworks, while the Liberals prefer private sector investment.
Labor’s proposal is slated to cost nearly $600 million, with Marshall arguing this “should send a shiver up the spine of every single South Australian”.
With his young daughter Eliza in his arms, Malinauskas announced plans to redevelop the Adelaide Aquatic Centre in North Adelaide Labor wins the March election.
Cleverly designed to draw in disengaged voters, the Malinauskas pool pictures featured on the Sunday Mail’s front page and in evening bulletins, and are now frequently referred to.
Political science research argues that good looks matter in election campaigning, and there is no doubt Malinauskas’s profile improved among voters who, until that point, would struggle to name the opposition leader.
In response, the premier quipped: “Right, that’s it, no more carbs.” Such are the lofty heights, at times, of this election’s campaign conversation.
The electoral equation
Momentum appears to be with Labor. A recent Newspoll indicated Labor’s primary vote is at 39 compared with the Liberals on 37, while two-party preferences favour Labor 53-47. Notably, Malinauskas is ahead as preferred premier. This poll combined with the campaign vibe points to it being difficult to see the Liberals taking seats off Labor.
To form a majority government, Labor requires a net gain of four seats, assuming it wins Florey. If Labor or ex-Labor independent Francis Bedford wins Newland, and Labor wins the ultra-marginal Liberal-held seats of Adelaide, King and Elder, they will be able to form majority government.
If none of this happens, it looks very difficult, requiring a swing of at least 6%.
Will Steven Marshall be returned for a second term as premier? There are many unknown elements in this year’s SA election. Morgan Sette/AAP
The Liberals look set to defeat one Labor-leaning independent MP in Geoff Brock, who suffered an adverse boundary change and is compelled to contest Deputy Premier Dan van Holst Pellekaan’s safe seat of Stuart. Brock’s former seat of Frome is likely to return to the Liberal camp. If that happens, the Liberals are one short of a majority.
So we come to the intrigue of how the independents may act, and here we look to the two most likely to “betray” their Liberal Party roots. Cregan is the most obvious first port of call for Malinauskas, given his cosy relationship with Labor that saw him become Speaker. Labor recently promised to build a new hospital in his electorate, something the Liberals have not yet matched. The other is Troy Bell, in Mt.Gambier and here it is reported that Malinauskas has regularly visited the electorate, but who knows what deal he may offer Bell or what Marshall’s counter might be.
If Duluk wins Waite – and, among the independents, he is the least likely to prevail – he is more likely to back Marshall into government.
With these factors in mind, more evidence leans to a Labor win. But I am not advising a wager, as this election is harder to predict than usual.
Haydon Manning does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
The illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine has already seen New Zealand break with long diplomatic tradition and introduce an “autonomous” sanctions regime outside the normal United Nations process.
But as the war nears the one-month mark, there is more that can be done. In particular, the New Zealand government needs to look at five potential ways it can support the Ukrainian people and government and help international efforts to punish Russian aggression.
1. Offer non-lethal military assistance
The New Zealand government actively helped the governments of Afghanistan and Iraq to defend themselves. But the current administration seems unwilling to do the same for Ukraine, despite the fact it is the victim of an illegal invasion by a superpower.
If New Zealand doesn’t wish to match the kind of lethal military aid its allies are providing, it could certainly offer non-lethal military assistance: body armour, communications equipment, night-vision technology, rations, medical packs and even cyber-security tools.
It may be small-scale, but the symbolism of helping the Ukrainian defence matters. The excuse that New Zealand has no surplus kit is lamentable. It should provide whatever it has now (via Australia, which can deliver it) and restock as required. At this moment, Ukraine needs it more than New Zealand does.
Ukrainian Territorial Defence Force soldiers in Kyiv: NZ has equipment to spare. GettyImages
2. Control New Zealanders wanting to fight
Both Ukraine and Russia are trying to internationalise the conflict by calling for foreign volunteers. Private contractors or mercenaries are also in high demand. There will undoubtedly be New Zealanders, including current or former Defence Force personnel, who are tempted to go.
While those with dual nationality (New Zealand and Ukrainian or Russian) will have some legal standing in the conflict, those without would risk execution if captured.
Current members of the New Zealand military risk being charged with mutiny if they attempt to serve a foreign power while still in uniform. Fighting as a mercenary overseas is also illegal under New Zealand law.
For New Zealanders motivated by ideology (rather than money), the government also needs to be explicit about the difference between fighting on the Ukrainian and Russian sides. One is acting like a terrorist organisation, and volunteers should be treated as such (much as New Zealand treated those leaving to join ISIS).
3. Open the door to refugees
The 2.8 million people who have already fled Ukraine is an exodus of unprecedented speed and scale. The government will need to extend its annual refugee quota (currently 1,500) and make some emergency decisions.
The recent approval of temporary sanctuary for around 4,000 family members of Ukrainians already in New Zealand is an excellent start. But the government needs to go further, with a focus on actual refugees, and commit to a number above the existing quota.
There is precedent to guide this, not least because the origins of New Zealand’s refugee policy lie in the same part of the world. In 1944 New Zealand accepted 733 Polish children and 102 adults fleeing war-torn Europe (including deportation to the Soviet Union).
The present generation can do better – at least double what was offered during the second world war.
4. Prepare for Russian vodka to become very expensive
Commendable as it is, the new Russian Sanctions Act, which targets specific individuals and entities supporting the Russian war effort, is only a first step.
As part of wider economic pressure already being applied internationally, New Zealand can still allow trade in some Russian products but use import duties to make them uncompetitive.
A number of countries have already started down this road, with the removal of Russia’s “most favoured nation” trade status. New Zealand should be prepared to act similarly – and expect Russia to reply in kind against New Zealand exports.
5. Discourage anti-Russian hysteria
Despite calls by the parliamentary opposition, New Zealand should not unilaterally expel the Russian ambassador. Such actions are normally a last resort, when countries are actually at war or there has been extreme interference in the host nation’s sovereignty.
In the case of Ukraine, for now at least, diplomacy has not run its course. Furthermore, it’s highly likely such a step would result in the New Zealand ambassador in Moscow being made persona non grata in response. New Zealand’s multiple interests in Russia would be left without official representation or support.
At a domestic level, the government should lead by example and not allow anger at Putin’s aggression to harden into anti-Russian sentiment. This means clearly identifying who and what should be subject to sanctions, observing due process and acting as fairly as possible.
Most Russians with citizenship or links to New Zealand will not be sanctions targets, anyway. Many will be opposed to Putin’s war. Ensuring tolerance, respect and protection is not only the right thing to do, it will help avoid reciprocal action against New Zealanders living in Russia.
Alexander Gillespie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
When it comes to respiratory viruses, COVID has been our greatest concern over the past two winters. So you might feel some aspects of déjà vu as winter 2022 approaches in Australia.
But this year is different. With relaxed public health measures and the opening of international borders, we will likely see a rise in flu cases. This is on top of a predicted rise in COVID.
The potential double-whammy has prompted the federal government to announce A$2.1 billion to target these expected spikes. The funding has been earmarked for measures including vaccination, testing and measures to protect aged care.
Here’s what to expect and how to protect yourself ahead of winter.
The main reason behind the expected rise in flu in 2022 is the opening of Australia’s international borders.
Tourists and returning residents can arrive without quarantining, provided they have the required COVID vaccinations and have had a COVID test beforehand. However, new arrivals don’t have to be tested for the flu virus, which they may inadvertently bring with them.
Flu, a little like COVID, can be spread by infected others before symptoms arise or even if symptoms don’t appear, something we regularly see in children. So once flu arrives, it will inevitably spread, regardless of whether we use masks, hand sanitiser or other measures.
It’s highly likely we’ll see COVID and influenza circulating at the same time this winter. But less certain is the more catastrophic predictions in the media of a so-called twindemic or syndemic.
COVID is more likely to persist and increase during the winter, and sometime during this period influenza will pop up. But we’re uncertain about the details.
Will flu be mild or more concerning in 2022? Will we see a rise in cases during the usual June-September period, peaking normally in August? The answers to these questions rely on history, the current situation and a good deal of speculation.
History tells us that after two seasons of low or no influenza circulating, we should expect a more severe season. That’s because the majority of people are not vaccinated against influenza each year and peoples’ natural immunity after infection will have waned.
However, current evidence argues against this. In the Northern Hemisphere, there have been low levels of flu circulating in most countries, with shorter outbreaks, compared with pre-pandemic years.
We’ve also seen a number of countries in the Southern Hemisphere – including South Africa, Brazil and Chile – having out-of-season flu outbreaks, during their 2021-2022 summer.
So this may mean the timing of Australia’s normal influenza season might be delayed until spring or even later in 2022.
Will I get ‘flurona’?
We may also see dual infections – when someone has COVID and influenza at the same time – sometimes dubbed “flurona”.
While this has occurred, the rates of dual infections globally have been low. Generally, under 1% of people with COVID also have influenza at the same time. Even with dual infections, people do not seem to be sicker than if they had COVID alone.
We’ll have a better idea of how many people will be infected with both viruses at once with the use of broader laboratory tests now available at many sites. These so called multiplex tests will detect a range of respiratory diseases, including COVID and flu, in a single test.
Fortunately, there is no way a new “hybrid virus” can emerge containing parts of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID) and the influenza virus in people with dual infections. These are distinct viruses that cannot combine.
Despite the uncertainties around flu in Australia in 2022, the best way to protect yourself is to get your flu vaccine.
Everyone is susceptible to flu, no matter your age, health or lifestyle. However, some age groups and some people with underlying disease are likely to suffer more severe consequences if infected with influenza.
These include young children (especially those under two years old), people aged 65 and over, pregnant women, people with chronic lung and heart disease, those with asthma, diabetes and people who are obese.
Different flu vaccines target different age groups with different formulations. These vaccines have a proven safety record and usually only cause very mild reactions, such as soreness at the injection site, mild fever or headache. These may last for a 12-24 hours and are easily treated with paracetamol or similar medications.
Flu vaccines are free for children aged six months to under five years of age, people aged 65 or older, pregnant women and all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people six months and older. People not eligible for free vaccines can still get them via their GP or some pharmacies.
This year you won’t have to schedule different visits for your influenza and COVID vaccinations. If needed, you can get them at the same time.
Influenza vaccines will be available from late March and will provide protection for at least 6-12 months. While these vaccines are not perfect they help prevent infection and the more serious consequences of the flu, such as hospitalisation and even death. So in April to May this year, as the cool days and nights return, think about booking in and getting your flu shot.
Ian Barr owns shares in a vaccine producing company. His Centre receives funding from the Australian Government Department of Health as well as a number of commercial pharmaceutical companies.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Albert Van Dijk, Professor, Water and Landscape Dynamics, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University
Shutterstock
After the devastating floods, it’s hard to imagine only two years earlier many hard-hit communities suffered extreme heat, drought and unprecedented bushfires. Yet our report, released today, shows Australia’s environment has recovered dramatically since then.
Every year we use a supercomputer to analyse vast amounts of measurements from satellites and field stations to give the condition of Australia’s environment a score out of ten. For 2021, we score it 6.9 – four points higher than the year before.
The improvement is largely thanks to two years of plentiful rains that helped Australia’s forests, pastures and farmland recover well.
But as the rains only increased in 2022, inundating many parts of southeast Australia, you may well be wondering: can there be too much rain for our environment? And what might this all mean for the coming bushfire seasons?
First, let’s look back at 2021
We assessed Australia’s environment using 15 key indicators, such as water availability, bushfire, population pressures and vegetation health. Combined, these help determine the overall “environmental condition score”.
On our website, you can also find regional scores for your state or territory, local government area, catchment and electorate. Unusually, scores improved almost everywhere.
We confirmed that rainfall was near or above average nearly everywhere, thanks to back-to-back La Niña events – a natural climate phenomenon over the Pacific Ocean associated with wetter weather.
What’s more, in the winter and spring of 2021, parts of Australia also felt the effects of a “negative Indian Ocean Dipole” – a little like the Indian Ocean’s version of La Niña that also brings rainier weather.
Here are a few ways all this rain benefited Australia’s environment:
it replenished parched soils that missed rainfall in 2020, and improved growing conditions in both natural and managed landscapes such as farms and plantation forests.
compared to 2020, drought conditions eased across previously drought-ravaged areas of inland northern Australia
river flows across Australia increased by 75% on 2020 figures, and urban water supplies increased for all capital cities
wetlands swelled to their greatest total extent since 2016 (although still 9% below the 20-year average), with no major algal blooms or fish kills
growth conditions in Australia’s cropping, grazing and irrigation lands were well above average and the best since 2000 in all major regions except South Australia and inland Western Australia.
Australia also experienced less population growth and carbon emissions in 2021, mainly as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, translating to a slower increase of the pressure on our environment.
Dark clouds on the horizon
Unfortunately, some troubling trends did not get better in 2021. Biodiversity continued to decline. Twelve species were declared extinct, although ten of those probably went extinct more than 60 years ago. A more recent extinction was the Christmas Island pipistrelle, a tiny bat last seen in 2009.
Another 34 species were added to Australia’s list of threatened species, eight of which are birds from Kangaroo Island, which suffered extensive and severe bushfires in early 2020.
While the number of threatened species fluctuate with the condition of their habitat, their long-term decline continues unabated. This is largely driven by invasive species such as feral cats and foxes, logging, urban development, river water extraction and an increasingly hot climate.
For example, despite the good rains and increased wetland extent, researchers counted fewer birds in Eastern Australia than in the previous four years.
Favourable conditions in the Great Barrier Reef led to the rapid, but fragile, recovery of hard corals after three bleaching events in five years. However, a recent heatwave in northern Queensland means a fourth coral bleaching event is on the cards for 2022.
And of course, despite the relatively benign weather conditions in 2021, the spectre of climate change on a global level has not lifted.
World economies recovering from the pandemic saw atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration increase by 2.5 parts per million, 6% faster than in 2020 and 11% faster than the average growth rate since 2000.
Because of La Niña, more of the excess heat went into the Pacific Ocean in 2021 than normal, rather than into the atmosphere. So while the atmosphere was 0.14 degrees cooler than in 2021, it was still almost one degree above the 2000-20 average and the sixth-warmest year on record.
Can there ever be too much rain?
Above-average rain already led to major flooding in Queensland and NSW in 2021, even before the more recent deluge. Indeed, the recent, record-breaking rains added more water to soils, catchments, rivers and dams already replenished in 2021.
Does Australia’s environment still benefit from so much rain? Mostly, it can.
Our ecosystems are generally better adapted to wild climate swings, shedding excess water efficiently and recovering quickly from damage.
In normally dry regions, more rain means more vegetation growth and uptake of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere – although much of it will be released again during droughts or fires.
River flooding is a source of life in inland Australia, which may mitigate some of the damage done by the diversion and over-extraction of floodwaters.
The consequences of extreme rainfall for invasive plants and animals are poorly understood but probably very diverse. Invasive species less adapted to drought may spread faster.
But the biggest environmental impacts are where natural vegetation was cleared for farming, housing or mining. Unprotected, bare soil soaks up less excess rainfall, and the rain and runoff can loosen up more sediment.
This erosion degrades farmland, cuts away riverbanks and the washed-out sediment and nutrients end up in rivers and the sea, where it can smother marine life and encourages outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish that attack coral reefs.
What does this mean for bushfires?
The Bureau of Meteorology expects that La Niña conditions reached their peak and rainfall conditions may normalise soon. Some of the excess heat stored in the ocean will be released, causing air temperatures to quickly resume their warming trend.
Combined with the booming growth of vegetation, the extent of bushfires will likely pick up again next fire season: more vegetation means more fuel for fire. And it only takes a few hot and dry weeks for these conditions to increase fire activity.
Unfortunately, the pressures of vegetation destruction, invasive species and climate change will degrade our agriculture and ecosystems for decades to come. Incisive reductions in carbon emissions and more careful ecosystem management can avoid these impacts worsening.
Both are within reach, but require the sort of consensus and resolve shown in response to COVID-19 and Russia’s invasion. Our environmental crisis is no less severe.
Australia’s Environment is produced by the ANU Fenner School for Environment & Society with support from TERN, an NCRIS-enabled National Research Infrastructure. Albert Van Dijk receives or has previously received funding from several government-funded agencies, grant schemes and programmes.
Shoshana Rapley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nigel Stork, Emeritus Professor in the Centre for Planetary Health and Food Security, Griffith University
Johan LarsonAuthor provided
When you walk through a rainforest, you might feel like you’re missing out. You can hear birdsong and insect noises from way up high. For decades, the rainforest canopy was called “the last biotic frontier,” due to the sheer difficulty of getting up there.
Just over 30 years ago, that began to change. Researchers from the Smithsonian installed an industrial crane in a Panama rainforest to give scientists access. Ten more were installed around the world over the next decade.
In 1998, Australia joined in, building a canopy crane in the Daintree rainforest, near Cape Tribulation. Our new research covers the story of how the canopy crane was installed, and what research has stemmed from it.
While canopies are hard to access, they are well worth the effort. The tree canopy is where the atmosphere meets the biosphere. As much as half of all biodiversity on Earth is found in tropical rainforests – and a large proportion of all these species are found in the canopy.
The Daintree’s canopy crane is Australia’s first. Author provided
What’s it like riding a canopy crane?
Riding the crane is an eerily quiet experience, as the power driving the crane comes from offsite.
You step into a kind of dangling gondola, suspended from the rig of the crane. As you go up, you immediately notice how uneven the canopy is. The crowns of some trees are way higher than others. Some trees are covered in vines and epiphyte air plants. Birds and large insects are abundant, particularly around trees in flower.
The tower crane is 45 metres tall. But even if you’re not great with heights, you may well find yourself too distracted by the sights to be worried. With a 55 metre jib, the crane can pivot to cover an area of forest larger than the size of a soccer field, with more than 80 species of trees.
The canopy crane is nestled so deeply in World Heritage-listed rainforest it can be hard to imagine the mammoth task involved in building a 70-tonne steel crane in the middle of the forest. In a serendipitous twist to the story, a heavy lift helicopter was available right when the crane was being erected, with the effort captured on film.
Funded by the Australian Research Council, the crane forms a key part of a nationally unique research and teaching facility at the Daintree Rainforest Observatory, where school and university students can stay for extended periods.
A view not often seen: the Daintree rainforest canopy from above. Author provided
What knowledge has the crane unlocked?
Over the past 24 years, this industrious workhorse has made possible more than 120 studies across fields as varied as entomology, plant phenology and physiology.
Researchers examine the canopy. Author provided
One important discovery has been the influence on ant communities by honeydew produced by bugs as well as nectar exuded from a plant’s glands other than flowers. Some ant species specialise in extracting these high energy foods to become the dominant species in the canopy.
Not only that, but studies from the crane have shown us our assumptions that rainforest canopies are unusually rich in species may not be entirely correct. It has allowed us to test the theory two thirds of all insect species are found in the canopy. In fact, intensive sampling of beetles showed both canopy and ground habitats are equally important for this hugely species rich group.
What will reduced rainfall mean for the Daintree?
Australia’s canopy crane has given us a bird’s eye view of how rainforests cope with a drying climate and drought conditions, with a large scale experiment under way.
Our Daintree experiment consists of two large areas covered by clear plastic roof panels which prevent almost all the rain from reaching the ground.
Researchers monitor what occurs in these areas. With much less rain, plant productivity drops. Plants change the way their wood grows to cope with lower water availability.
When shrubs and saplings in the understorey are water-stressed, we see reduced rates of photosynthesis occuring alongside higher levels of insect attack on leaves. Wood-boring insects are more common on these saplings, while termites were more active across the drought experiment area.
The Daintree drought experiment we are running examines the effect of much less rainfall on the rainforest. Author provided
Up on the crane, we’ve discovered that insects in the canopy may respond differently to drought stresses compared to those lower down in the forest.
We found more insects feeding on sap and fungi in drought-stressed trees down in the understorey, while we found little change in the canopy insects. This suggests insects up high are either very mobile or that the large canopy trees are less affected by drought.
Australian research could benefit from more canopy cranes
If we are to answer important questions about how ecosystems will function as the climate changes, we could benefit from more cranes. Six cranes have proved vital to Western Sydney University’s large scale experiment on how Australian forests, animals and soils will fare at 550 parts per million of carbon dioxide (we’re currently at 400).
While nimble new technologies like drones give us exciting new data on canopies, canopy cranes will have a place for years to come. That’s because drones cannot give humans direct access to the canopy.
As the Daintree crane ages, questions will arise over whether it’s worth replacing when the time comes. The fact that understorey and canopy plants respond differently to drought shows us we cannot simply extrapolate what happens at ground level to what happens at height in the rainforest.
Canopy cranes give us vital access and make possible studies across whole forest ecosystems. Australia’s only tropical forest canopy crane has proven its worth.
Nigel Stork receives funding from the Australian Research Council
Claire Gely receives funding from the Australian Research Council.
Susan Laurance works for James Cook University that runs the Daintree Rainforest Observatory. Susan Laurance has received ARC funding to support her drought experiment at the Daintree Rainforest Observatory.
Most universities created divisions or units commonly known as “safer community”. These have a broad mandate to improve student safety and promote respectful engagement on campus. Safer community units also provide counselling and other therapeutic support for student survivors of sexual violence and harassment, as well as supporting them through internal investigations.
Universities have tried to make clearer their sexual violence reporting policies for students. Some have set up online portals for survivors and bystanders to report sexual harm.
A number of universities have introduced short, one-off online education modules. These include Consent Matters and “first-responder” staff training in how to respond to student disclosures of sexual violence. Universities have also implemented communications campaigns and bystander interventions.
The 2021 Safer Communities Symposium highlighted that these units often have limited resources, high staff turnover and face institutional barriers. Some of their personnel lack training in sexual violence. There is little to no support for university staff who experience sexual harms at work.
As for reporting policies, these are not nationally consistent. The policies are not always written in plain language or easily accessible for staff and students. Reporting options need to be improved, too, to meet best-practice guidelines.
Student and staff training in respectful relationships and appropriate responses to disclosures is a welcome change. However, we know very little about its impact due to a lack of evaluation.
We don’t know, for example, how effective Consent Matters is at preventing sexual violence on campus. We also lack data on the effectiveness of first responder training in supporting survivors – from the perspective of both responders and survivors.
Our research points to the need for a whole-of-university approach to sexual violence. Such an approach factors in all elements of the institution from the individual to the structural, including its place within the broader community.
In practice, this might mean better safer community resourcing. We also need to ensure these services remain survivor-centred, trauma-informed and intersectional, meaning their services are appropriate for survivors with different experiences, identities, backgrounds and needs. Universities must reduce the institutional barriers that can and do undermine the potential for change.
Interventions should include evidence-based primary prevention initiatives. These initiatives must focus on staff as well as students and cover the costs for casual staff to attend training.
At the Safer Communities Symposium, one of us (Jessica Ison) presented findings of a study with staff members from safer community divisions across Australian universities. The study found few evidence-based interventions for staff or students. Nor are interventions consistently evaluated.
An important factor in this is we do not have a strong evidence base about what works in preventing sexual violence. Much of the attention to date has focused on community perceptions of violence against women or bystander interventions. But we still know very little about perpetrators.
Most of what we do know comes from research conducted with convicted sex offenders. Yet most people who perpetrate sexual assault will never be detected by the criminal justice system. We need to build a stronger base of evidence about all perpetrators to enhance prevention interventions.
As for reducing barriers to reporting, we know from the 2016 survey that 87% of those who were sexually assaulted and 94% of those who were sexually harassed did not make a formal report or complaint to their university. Many said they didn’t know where to go or how to make a report.
Survivors worry about possible repercussions and not being believed if they report sexual violence on campus. University hierarchies of power have a major impact on whether or not survivors choose to report. These include: gendered power relations, supervisory relationships (staff-student or staff-staff), employment status, and visa status for international students.
A whole-of-university approach is needed to counter the role that power plays in creating the conditions for sexual violence. Power relations also shape under-reporting and undermine survivors who do come forward.
In this article we have focused on structural change within universities. However, we don’t know whether or to what extent survivors have been (and remain) involved in bringing about change. Survivors continue to express frustration and disappointment at inaction and dismissal when they report sexual violence to their institutions, as well as when they’re left out of decision-making processes.
Universities need to involve survivors and advocacy groups such as End Rape on Campus in efforts to prevent sexual violence. Survivors should be included in policy design and implementation, advocacy work and improvement of reporting portals for students and staff.
At the same time, we should take care not to overburden survivors. Any engagement should be meaningful and grounded in a trauma-informed and culturally safe approach.
Sexual violence and harassment on campuses are preventable. Next week’s release of the National Student Safety Survey findings is an opportunity for universities to redouble their commitment to survivors and their communities.
Nicola Henry receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Institute of Criminology. She is also a member of the Australian eSafety Commissioner’s Advisory Group.
Rachel Loney-Howes receives funding from the Australian Institute of Criminology.
Jessica Ison does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Barthélémy Toguo,
The Generous Water Giant, 2022. Courtesy Bandjoun Station & Galerie Lelong & Co. Installation view, 23rd Biennale of Sydney, rīvus, 2022, Museum of Contemporary Art Australia. Phot ography: Document Photography.
Review: the 23rd Biennale of Sydney, rīvus.
Artists for generations have shown vision and leadership in addressing society’s most wicked problems. Yet art by itself cannot change the world without a platform. International biennales are the most high-profile exhibition platforms of our times.
As the third oldest continuous international biennale, running since 1973, the Biennale of Sydney is one of the most authoritative and influential contemporary art exhibitions in the world.
Working collaboratively with a team of four Sydney-based curators from Arts & Cultural Exchange (ACE), Artspace, Museum of Contemporary Art (MCA) and the Art Gallery of NSW, the artistic director and Colombian curator José Roca has addressed some of the most pressing preoccupations of the day.
Specifically, the current 23rd edition shows how biennales can make a constructive contribution to debates around environmental sustainability and can advocate for a less ecologically combative inhabitation of Earth.
This is not a dry or didactic exhibition: it is rich with wonder, aesthetically captivating and, at times, viscerally immersive.
Equal status to science and art
Nyikina Warrwa woman Dr Anne Poelina recently co-authored an article about the growing recognition of the legal rights of rivers.
She is featured in one of several similar videos in the Biennale as the personification of the Martuwarra (Fitzroy) River.
The personhood of rivers is a key premise underpinning the entire 2022 Biennale, titled rīvus, or “stream” in Latin.
Leeroy New, Balete, 2022 (detail). Courtesy the artist. Installation view, 23rd Biennale of Sydney, rīvus, 2022, Arts and Cultural Exchange. Photography: Document Photography.
At the entrance to each of the exhibition venues, a different river greets the viewer: its cultural significance and ecological woes embodied by a First Nations custodian narrator. It is a deft curatorial device that serves to link the exhibitions across Sydney and establish the equal status this biennale affords art, science, activism, traditional knowledge and bodies of water.
For the previous Biennale in 2020, artistic director Brook Andrew made a similar curatorial intervention with his “Powerful Objects” installation at each venue, which served to gently reiterate the exhibition’s postcolonial discourse.
This is just one element of continuity between the 2020 and 2022 editions; another is the foregrounding of First Nations cultural knowledge.
If biennales are to retain relevance in these difficult times, they must look to curatorial models that accumulate rather than discard strategies and knowledge gained with each edition.
By not wiping the slate entirely clean, the 2022 Biennale of Sydney strengthens messaging from the 2020 edition, key aspects of which were impacted by COVID-19 with closures and cancellations and for that reason also have been taken up by Roca and his team.
This signals a curatorial generosity not usually associated with biennales, more commonly perceived as the playground of individualistic artists and star curators.
Badger Bates with Anthony Hayward & David Doyle, Barkandji canoe , 2020; Badger Bates, Mungabuttaka, 2021; Karnka, 2021; Wanna, 2019; Coolamon, 2021; Nulla nulla, 2019. Courtesy Badger Bates, Anthony Hayward and David Doyle. Rear: Rex Greeno, Ningher (Reed canoe), 2020 (detail). Purchased 2021 with funds from Gina Fairfax through the Queensland Art Gallery | Gallery of Modern Art Foundation Collection: Queensland Art Gallery | Gallery of Modern Art. Installation view, 23rd Biennale of Sydney, rīvus, 2022, Art Gallery of New South Wales. Photography: Document Photography
In 1982, Beuys – a German artist and environmental activist – launched the project by planting seeds for 7,000 oak trees in Kassel. In 1984, the planting of a single tree was commissioned for that year’s Biennale of Sydney.
Beuys’ work is referenced by two projects at the Art Gallery of NSW. The first is by English artist duo Ackroyd & Harvey, well known internationally for their ongoing tree-planting project Beuys’ Acorns, inspired by 7000 Oaks.
Ackroyd & Harvey, Lille Madden / Tar-Ra (Dawes Point), Gadigal land, Sydney, 2022. Courtesy the artists. Installation view, 23rd Biennale of Sydney, rīvus, 2022, Art Gallery of New South Wales. Photography: Document Photography
For the biennale they have created monumental “living” portraits of environmentalist Lille Madden and her grandfather Uncle Charles “Chicka” Madden. Made in Sydney from a variety of grasses, the commanding portraits are ephemeral like grass itself and will likely fade over time.
The second work connecting back to Beuys is One Beat One Tree. A digital interactive installation by the late Belgian artist Naziha Mestaoui, it invites visitors to “plant” and “grow” a tree with dance-like moves. While these trees grow on the screen, the work also has real-world reforestation outcomes.
Naziha Mestaoui’s One Beat, One Tree, 2017. Felicity Fenner, Author provided
Another response to Beuys’ tree is being performed by artist Mike Parr this week.
The 2022 biennale’s homage to Beuys resuscitates Australia’s iteration of one of the world’s earliest and most iconic environmental artworks, which will be relaunched with the opening of Sydney Modern later this year.
Flow and connection
This seamless flow across time, cultures and natural environments epitomises the 22nd Biennale of Sydney, making it is near impossible to single out individual works as highlights.
Those that conjure the concepts of flow and interconnectedness, inherent to bodies of water, most clearly articulate the exhibition premise. There is Bernie Krause’s audio feast titled The Great Animal Orchestra and Cave Urban’s suspended bamboo river at Barangaroo.
Left to Right: Nicole Foreshew, YIRUNG BILA (SKY HEAVEN RIVER),2022.
(detail). Courtesy the artist; Cave Urban, Flow, 2022 (detail). Courtesy the artists; Hera Büyüktaşçıyan, Fishbone IV, 2019- 2022 (detail). Courtesy the artist & Green Art Gallery, Dubai; and Ana Barboza and Rafael Freyre, Water ecosystem, 2019-2022 (detail). Courtesy the artists & Museode Arte Contemporáneo de Lima. Installation view, 23rd Biennale of Sydney, rīvus, 2022, The Cutaway at Barangaroo. Photography: Document Photography.
Leanne Tobin’s film traces the journey of the Burramatta (Parramatta) River eels at ACE. Hannah Tuulikki’s equally hypnotic film depicts the artist singing to and swimming with seals in her native Scotland.
Carolina Caycedo’s expansive wall map of waterways at the National Art School Gallery is matched in its big picture vision by Barthélémy Toguo’s similarly sweeping painting, The Generous Water Giant, at the MCA.
Installation view Ngalawan – We Live, We Remain 2022. Photograph: Lyndal Irons
The accompanying publication, rīvus: a glossary of water, encapsulates the exhibition’s interdisciplinary approach in a way that, like the exhibition itself, is non-hierarchical and interwoven.
The 2022 Biennale of Sydney invites new audiences through its attention to those international issues also impacting Australia, and in its extensive participation with local artists and communities.
Though still very much part of the international biennale network, this exhibition has all the ingredients to offer Australian visitors inspiration and meaningfulness at a time when art and exhibitions are all too easily overshadowed by the global challenges we face.
The 23rd Biennale of Sydney, rīvus, is at various venues until June 13.
The author’s journal article “De-Beuysed But Not Forgotten: Joseph Beuys in Sydney” (Public Art Dialogue, NY, 2019) appears in the 2022 Biennale of Sydney publication, “rivus: a glossary of water”.
Papua New Guinean police have made a startling revelation that firearms for the National Elections security operations in June have yet to be purchased.
Deputy Police Commissioner Anton Billie says the firearms might not be procured and received by the time the election writs are issued on April 28 when nominations and campaigns start in earnest.
“We haven’t purchased anything yet. I’ve been told that they are doing it (police procurement team) but they need time,” Billie said yesterday.
He said the normal process for procurement of ammunition and guns could take about six to eight months to organise because important procurement protocols that needed to be followed.
Billie believes, however, police will manage with the currently available stock until the new procurement arrives.
A senior employee of the Police Department, who requested anonymity, said there were strict procurement protocols in place. However, due to the urgency the police procurement team had come up with measures to bypass some of these procedures.
The source said this situation would not have come about had the funds for the purchase of the firearms been released in November or December last year.
Funding needed last year “We were supposed to get the funding last year but because we got it this year in February, the funding delayed everything,” he said.
“It normally takes a long time to procure.
“To get the procurement for those major expenditures, like uniforms and guns and ammunitions, we don’t have the time to do that procurement.”
The issue is further complicated because the procurement committee has not approved the police procurement orders.
Items yet to be purchased include guns, ammunitions, and uniforms.
The three-week election is due to begin a week early on June 18.
Claudia Tallyis a PNG Post-Courier reporter. Republished with permission.
New Zealand’s Ministry of Health has reported 19,542 new cases of covid-19 in the community and 24 more deaths today.
The ministry said eight people had died with covid-19 yesterday, while a further 16 people had died in the past three weeks.
“Local public health authorities have notified these deaths to the ministry in the past 24 hours as part of changes to the reporting of deaths announced last week. Delays to reporting can be associated with people dying with, rather than of covid-19, and covid being discovered after they have died,” the statement said.
Tweeting an image of a rapid antigen test, Chris Hipkins said: “The faint line seems out of keeping with how I currently feel!
“Day 7 of isolation and now it’s my turn. So I’ll be clocking off for another 7 days. Take care out there everyone.”
The faint line seems out of keeping with how I currently feel! Day 7 of isolation and now it’s my turn. So I’ll be clocking off for another 7 days. Take care out there everyone. pic.twitter.com/9wt8u7oe3o
Hipkins would normally have fronted today’s covid-19 update, but the media conference has been cancelled for today.
MPs testing positive Hipkins is the latest of several MPs to have tested positive, including Environment Minister David Parker, Police Minister Poto Williams, opposition National Party leader Christopher Luxon and National MP Simon Bridges.
In the ministry’s report today, a person in their 40s was one of the people with Covid-19 whose death was reported today, while another person was in their 50s. The others include four in their 60s, three in their 70s, eight in their 80s and six in their 90s.
Eleven were women and twelve were men. The ministry said the average age was 79 and this had been increasing over the last week.
Eight of the 24 deaths reported today were people who died at aged residential care facilities.
The total number of deaths of people with covid-19 is now 141.
The rolling seven-day average of deaths over the past seven days is seven, up from four yesterday.
The ministry said the trend of increasing numbers of deaths was sadly not unexpected.
Higher numbers “As has occurred with omicron overseas, while covid-19 cases are usually seen in higher numbers among younger people early in the outbreak, over time the more severe and fatal consequences of the virus fall disproportionately on our older and more vulnerable populations.”
There are 971 people in hospital, 21 of whom are in ICU. The average age of the people with covid-19 in hospital is 57.
There were also 17 new cases identified at the border.
Asia Pacific Report adds: Covid-19 modeller Professor Michael Plank was quoted in news reports as indicating the ethnicity of cases could increase the number of severe cases.
Māori make up about 17 percent of the 5 million population, but 20 percent of all cases, and 25 percent of those hospitalised, reports the New Zealand Herald.
Pasifika make up 8 percent of the population, but 21 percent of all cases and 38 percent of those hospitalised.
This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.
Three years on from the Christchurch terror attacks on 15 March 2019, Mahvash Ikram writes an open letter to her young son telling him one day he will learn how the Muslim community was targeted, but that shouldn’t scare him from going to a mosque.
Dear son,
You’re not yet two, but you’ve already been to the mosque several times. You don’t understand what happens there, but you love to copy what everyone does. You already know how to say Allah-o-Akbar, and it has become an essential part of your ever-growing vocabulary.
Some would say Muslims start early with their young and I agree wholeheartedly.
So, here’s your first lesson — never be ashamed of your beliefs.
But, remember your vocabulary also includes salam, which means peace. So, practise your faith in peace.
Not long from now, you will understand the concept of standing in prayer behind the imam.
And that’s when we will take you to the mosque for your first ever Friday prayer, Jummah.
We will most likely go as a family, and maybe a few friends will come along too. I will make a big deal out of it. Mothers are embarrassing in all cultures — especially your mum, just ask your older sister.
A white shirt We will dress you in new clothes, probably a white shirt that will be a bit tight around your pudgy little tummy. It will no doubt get stained with your favourite lunch, which will be ready for you when you come home.
Soon you will learn Friday prayer is a bit of a celebration for Muslims — clean clothes, a hearty home-cooked meal and lots of people to meet at the mosque. It will be an important part of your social calendar, second only to the two big festival prayers.
I look forward to all of it, except one thing — one day you will learn about the March 15 terrorist attacks.
You will learn someone targeted innocent members of your community for their faith.
Al Noor Mosque in Christchurch … strewn with flowers and offerings honouring the victims of the terror attack there on 15 March 2019. Image: Alex Perrottet/RNZ
And that’s your second lesson, sometimes you will be treated unkindly for your beliefs. You are not alone, there are other communities that suffer the same fate.
Remember — this has nothing to do with you. You are not responsible for a fault in another person’s head.
Trust me, it will be a rude awakening — just like it was for the rest of our country. It is often called the end of Aotearoa’s innocence. Lots of people, including children, were killed and injured that day.
It still hurts One of those who died was a three-year-old who went to the mosque with his older brother.
Another child was shot but survived. Lots of children lost their parents too. It still hurts.
Tributes and flowers left outside Al-Noor Mosque in Christchurch after the terror attacks. Image: Isra’a Emhail/RNZ
Most grown-ups around you are trying to make sure something like this never happens again in Aotearoa and around the world.
Sometimes we fail, but we are trying.
Hate is an ugly emotion, too big for one’s body. When it takes over, it makes people cruel. They say and do things that can seriously hurt for a very long time. The worst part is these people don’t even realise how horrible they are.
You will also hear of people who practise your faith, but carry a similar hatred. Stay away from them. They, too, destroy families. Denounce them openly.
People may call you names, they may provoke you to fight back and say your religion teaches violence. It is not true. Ignore them.
Keep this verse of the Quran close to your heart and have patience with what they say and leave them with noble (dignity).
Don’t be scared Don’t let all of this scare you from going to the mosque.
In fact, when you are a bit older I encourage you to go to all sorts of places of worship, whether it’s a mosque, a temple or a church, you will find tranquility and calm.
Don’t be afraid to know others and learn about their views, it is how we rid the world of hate.
Our religion teaches us to respect all other humans regardless of their faith, race, ethnic origin, gender, or social status.
I understand all this information might make you a bit nervous. It is a lot to take in for a little boy your age. But some grown ups just never got on to it and look at what that’s done.
So, let’s get started. After all, we Muslims do start a bit early with our young.
All my love,
Xoxoxo
Mummy
Mahvash Ikram is on the staff at Radio New Zealand. This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.
The big new story in the news cycle – in New Zealand but not only in New Zealand – is the rising ‘cost of living’, which is usually conflated with ‘inflation’. These topics – together and separately – are, like Covid19, devolved to ‘social science’ (macroeconomist in this case) ‘experts’; within the policy-making apparatus and within the newsroom.
In fact, these topics – ‘cost of living’ and inflation, as policy topics – have never been dealt with scientifically; monetary and fiscal policies routinely applied are as unmodern as was bloodletting as a commonly prescribed cure in the pre-modern era of medical ‘science’; as in the era when, routinely, medical interventions on balanced caused more cost than benefit.
Just as we do not yet have anything like a consensus about the causes of and recovery from the Great Depression of the 1930s, we have nothing like a scientific consensus about the causes of and recovery from the Great Inflation of the 1970s. It’s mainly because most ‘experts’ take a textual (akin to religious) approach to these questions, and not a scientific approach.
Cost of Living
It is widely understood that a rise in the cost of living and inflation are the same thing, and that they are caused by wicked people ‘price-gouging’ or (as economists might say) ‘rent-taking’. Or that some foolish or wicked bankers have created too much money, allowing the greedy to gain at the expense of the regular ‘mums and dads’. (We may note that Jacinda Ardern spoke of a ‘wicked perfect storm’, before waving a policy wand in the form of waiving some petrol taxes. On Radio NZ [14 March], economist Eric Crampton, more scientific in his approach than most, tried to explain that these measures were little more than wand-waving, but he didn’t say what the host of The Panel wanted to hear.)
The cost of living is a ‘real’ concept, whereas inflation is a ‘nominal’ (or ‘monetary’) concept.
The present rise in the cost of living arises from a number of real factors which cannot simply be waved away or waived. The most important of these real costs are the pandemic (and related restrictions imposed upon businesses and households), the war in Ukraine (and the related impact on world petrol, wheat and other prices), and climate change (causing droughts and floods).
Because these are real rather than monetary contributors to rising prices, ethical policy measures must be about finding fair ways to allocate the cost burden (such as universal benefits and higher taxes), and about creating more incentives to modify and reduce unsustainable economic demands. Examples of such behaviour-modification incentives would be incentives to travel less, and incentives to travel relatively more by public transport (a policy tick here) and through more sustainable transport modes (such as bicycles).
What is unethical is for one group of people to try to shift the entire burden onto other groups of people; eg people in other countries. We need to realise that all people in the world should bear some of the cost burden of the Ukraine war, while also understanding that the combatant countries will disproportionately bear that burden.
Inflation
This is essentially a nominal concept, often thought to be entirely a monetary concept. Thus, in principle, inflation can be suppressed or exported by monetary means. Inflation is more nuanced, however; and can be regarded, in part, as a real but secondary cost. Another example of a real but secondary cost is pain, which is a physiological symptom of some other cost (trauma), and may indeed be a part of a solution or cure to that trauma. Thus, a fever may be both an indication of infection (a real cost) and a part of the curative process. A pain in the arm after a vaccination is an indication that the vaccine is effectively working to prevent disease.
Pain is also a useful analogy to inflation, in that pain has many causes, and therefore many remedies. Choosing the correct remedy depends on a good scientific diagnosis of the cause of any particular pain. A rising cost of living is an economic pain, and inflation is part of the process of working through that pain.
A good example of a real cost is that of a huge boulder falling from a mountain into a lake below, causing a lot of direct damage to the lake and its ecosystem. (In macroeconomics, this would be called an ‘adverse supply shock’; like a war or a pandemic.)
In addition to the direct damage is the secondary ‘ripple effect’. As such the ripples (waves) represent both additional costs and energy diffusion benefits. The ripples may sink boats and/or flood the lakeshore. Nevertheless, we cannot easily imagine how it would serve any purpose to suppress those ripples; the ripples are a necessary part of how the lake-system returns to a new equilibrium. If we are patient, the ripples will eventually subside; albeit with some permanent ripple-damage to the lakeshore.
The only practical way to suppress the ripples – the ripples being the secondary effect of the initial adverse supply shock – is to generate counter-ripples. The problem is that the cost of generating counter-ripples may be greater than the cost of the ripples; and even if that cost is not greater, the cost-burden of the anti-ripple policy may be more inequitable than the cost-burden of the ripples. Even worse, anti-ripple policies in practice often aggravate the ripples before dispelling them.
We should also note that, following the ripple analogy, neoliberal monetary economists believe that, if unchecked, the ripples will never stop and may indeed accelerate over time. Hence, such economists believe that the ‘ripple-problem’ is much worse than it really is.
Using Deflation Policies to Fight Inflation
Again, we must start by reminding ourselves that inflation is typically a necessary part of the adjustment to a new reality, following a ‘cost of living’ shock; or indeed following a ‘perfect storm’ of cost-of-living shocks. So, the best policies are patience (keeping calm and carrying on), combined with other abovementioned incentives and income distribution measures that facilitate the adjustment process.
What policymakers normally do, instead, is to pursue deflationary policies as counter-inflationary policies. In particular, these are likely to be monetary policies – we expect the central bank (Reserve Bank) to raise interest rates as a one-size-fits-all panacea. In addition, there may be ‘fiscal policies’ – most likely reductions in government spending and reductions in social security payments; maybe, also, tax increases. (Together, these are known as ‘contractionary macroeconomic policies’.) These policies are attempts to reduce aggregate spending to match reductions in aggregate output. They work – inasmuch as they do work – by creating a recession in the ‘medium term’; by intentionally creating a cure worse than the disease. In the ‘short term’ these policies aggravate the ‘cost of living’ problem. Increasing interest rates (and increasing taxes) add to, rather than detract from, the cost burden.
The Rationale for Contractionary Policies
The first part of the rationale is that inflation is understood by macroeconomists as a problem of too much spending or too much money. That is, inflation arising from a real cost of living shock (let alone a ‘wicked perfect storm’) is considered to be an atypical form of inflation. Regardless of this, the conventional contractionary policy – like paracetamol as a cure for pain, or bloodletting as a cure for disease – is embarked upon as a ‘one size fits all’ or ‘one curative elixir solves all’ remedy.
The rationale is that, even if there is not too much money, then, nevertheless, reducing the quantity of money will still counter the problem.
While the argument for contractionary fiscal policy is similar to that for contractionary monetary policy, I will comment in coming paragraphs mainly about contractionary monetary policy. We should note, however, that the fiscal policy argument is one for a direct cut in total spending, and is an argument for reduced ‘demand for money’. And it’s a neoliberal argument, in that it assumes that, when money is scarce, it is better spent in the private sector than in the public sector.
We should also note that, while the monetary policy argument is essentially a closed economy argument – ie a global rather than a national argument – governments are by definition agents of national polities rather than a global polity. (We may also note that big countries like USA and China more closely approximate a ‘closed economy’ than do little countries such as New Zealand.) Nevertheless the most pressing argument – as a political argument rather than a moral argument – is an open economy argument about countries’ exchange rates.
Argument One (the classical argument):
Higher interest rates discourage spending, and reduced spending leads to a recession. In a recession it is very difficult for businesses to raise prices, even if their costs rise. This is a closed-economy ‘global argument’; that rising global interest rates lead to global disinflation (reduced inflation rates) despite rising interest costs. Like ‘mask-wearing’ during covid times, the argument is that the benefit (disinflation) is greater than the higher interest costs faced by businesses and households.
The practical problem – especially in circumstances, like today, following a ‘supply-side’ ‘perfect storm’ – is that you get the worst of both worlds: inflation and recession. In pre-modern times, bloodletting would usually weaken rather than strengthen a sick person.
Argument Two (the open-economy argument):
Following one country’s central bank raising interest rates, ‘investor’ money will flow into that country from other countries. The exchange rate for that country appreciates, and the exchange rates for the other countries depreciate. When a country’s currency appreciates, prices in that country fall, or at least rise more slowly. Raising interest rates in one country exports inflationto other countries.
This is by its very nature an immoral policy. It is immoral to export a problem, knowingly.
And it’s self-defeating. Such interest-rate-raising monetary policies generate a ‘race to the bottom’ (indeed a wicked race to the bottom) because they oblige other countries to counter them with similar interest-raising policies. Otherwise, these other countries find themselves importing inflation in addition to the inflation they already have. (This is Turkey’s problem at present; it tried to reduce rather than raise interest rates, leading to a run on its currency.)
A variation of this argument applies to a world with fixed currency exchange rates. This is the argument as it applied in the years before World War 1, and in the late 1920s and early 1930s (the period of the classic gold standard). A ‘surplus’ country with rising gold reserves should cut its interest rates (to reverse that monetary inflow) while a ‘deficit’ country with falling gold reserves should raise interest rates (to reverse its monetary outflow). These were ‘the rules’. The latter (deficit) countries had no choice but to follow the rules; but the rules were in effect discretionary for the surplus countries. The result was global deflation; and recession or worse.
Argument Two; corollary (the pure monetary argument):
In the gold standard times it was understood that the global price level was regulated by the global gold supply. While the data generally did not conform with this proposition, it seemed too good a story to abandon. In many times – eg the seventeenth and nineteenth centuries – the extra gold was generally hoarded or banked rather than spent. So extra gold had no impact on inflation, and often was coincident with deflation.
Nevertheless, the argument was adapted to national currencies, especially at times – like today – of flexible (‘floating’) exchange rates. And the argument seemed to work, some of the time. If one country kept interest rates low and allowed its money supply to increase, then there would be a resulting and matching fall in its exchange rate. The rate of inflation would match the rate of currency depreciation. This sort of thing used to happen a lot in South America. It did not happen in Switzerland and Denmark, where negative interest rate policies have been in place since 2014. Most importantly, this exchange rate argument is about particular inflations in particular countries, and is not an argument that connects world inflation to falling interest rates or rising money supplies.
The Rational Expectations Argument (essentially a closed economy argument):
This is the argument that was pushed during the ‘monetarist’ decade; the 1980s.
The argument is based on the idea that if everyone believes that a policy will work, then the policy will work. So, if you – as a central banker – believe that other people (including other central bankers) believe that any policy (eg raising interest rates; or making a sacrifice to the gods) will lead to a desired outcome, then it will lead to that desired outcome. This is really, in essence, the same type of argument that justified human sacrifices by priestly authorities in ancient ‘civilisations’; such as the Aztecs of Mexico.
It has become a mantra in the world of central banking and neoliberal economics, that whenever inflation threatens, then central banks should raise interest rates; it works because enough people believe it will work. And a credible central bank will maintain that ‘tight money’ stance, no matter what economic pain ensures; because a central bank’s rigidity is what gives that central bank its credibility. When a central bank is being staunch, then workers will demand smaller wage increases because they believe inflation will be low. And businesses will avoid raising prices, because they believe that their competitors – themselves believing that inflation will be low – will not raise their prices.
Summary
‘Inflation’ and a ‘rising cost of living’ are not the same thing. But both lead to authoritative impulses to raise interest rates and to restrain government spending. In reality, the application of deflation to counter inflation leads to both inflation and deflation in the short term, and to recessions (or worse) in the medium to long term.
*******
Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.
Recent stories about ‘Cost of Living’ and ‘Inflation’ in New Zealand:
One government, in New Zealand, has already cut its fuel excise, by 25 cents per litre for the three months it hopes will be the worst of the oil price crisis, and in the United States and Australia there’s talk of the same sort of thing.
Before considering whether it should be cut, temporally waived, or removed in this month’s budget, it’s worth reacquainting ourselves with what it is.
As is the case with the goods and services tax, it isn’t explicitly quoted when we buy petrol or other fuels; it is rolled into the advertised price.
At the moment the excise on standard unleaded petrol is 43.3 cents per litre, an impost which itself is subject to the goods and services tax. This brings the total to 47.6 cents per litre, something that would have been significant a year ago when the price of petrol was lower, accounting for one third of the price.
It is now less important, accounting for 22% of the price of petrol.
The fuel excise is imposed by the Commonwealth government. As a matter of law and as required by the Constitution, all revenue raised by the Commonwealth goes into “one consolidated revenue fund”. But from 1926 to 1959 all or part of the fuel excise was earmarked for spending on roads.
Since then, it has generally been available for any sort of spending – although the impression remains that it is a crude form of user fee for roads and associated government-funded infrastructure, and for maintenance of that infrastructure.
Effectively a road user charge
The excise is collected at the points of distribution from local refineries and importers rather than at the petrol pump, making it easy to administer.
Making it much more difficult to administer are the substantial rebates offered to off-road users of petrol and diesel, which have the effect of making it a charge for using roads. They cut the total takings from about A$20 billion to A$11 billion.
State and territory governments impose another set of taxes on the use of motor vehicles. These include stamp duty on the registration, annual registration fees, the charge for drivers licenses, and taxes on vehicle insurance. State taxes on the use of motor vehicles amounted to A$11.3 billion in 2019-20.
These taxes also go into general revenue, and with no specific link to state government decisions on road infrastructure and maintenance or the provision of services such as traffic police and hospitals.
Taken together, the Commonwealth’s takings from fuel excise and the states’ takings from special motor vehicle taxes appear to roughly equal their spending on roads and associated infrastructure and fall short of the total costs imposed by road users on others including the costs of noise, pollution and policing.
There are better ways to do it
In an ideal world we would charge explicitly for road use, pollution and congestion in the cities during peak hours.
Fuel excise is an increasingly inappropriate way of charging for road use because more and more cars (including hybrids) are using less fuel per kilometre, and some (including all-electric vehicles) are using none.
Some states, including Victoria, charge electric vehicles per kilometre travelled. Owners are required to provide a photo of their odometer and the fee is added to the cost of their registration.
While in the spirit of user charging, what Victoria and other states are doing is a limited first step.
Ideally, and subject to considerations of simplicity and operating costs, the user charge would vary by weight per axle, aggregate weight and distance travelled, and perhaps by road type.
Given the fixed cost of much road investment and maintenance, a modified version of current annual registration fees should continue.
The combustion of petrol and diesel generates external pollution costs not considered by businesses and individuals in their use of motor vehicles.
External pollution costs include particulates with adverse effects on health and smog, and emissions of carbon dioxide that contribute to climate change.
A pollution fee that is much smaller than the current 43.3 cents per litre excise should be imposed on fuel used for both off-road and on-road purposes as part of a comprehensive price on greenhouse gas emissions associated with the combustion of fossil fuels.
Congestion causes costs estimated to be in the tens of billions in terms of lost time, uncertainty, and extra fuel use, with only a small portion borne by the road user concerned. An important part of the reform package should be a congestion charge for peak hours along the lines suggested by the Grattan Institute.
This ideal set of changes would be imposed independent of the price of oil.
John Freebairn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sally Inglis, Professor, Heart Foundation Future Leader Fellow, IMPACCT, Faculty of Health, University of Technology Sydney
The risk of an acute event (including heart attack) increases with age for both men and women: from five per 100,000 for women aged 25–34 (13 per 100,000 for men) to 2,100 per 100,000 for women aged 85 and over (2,900 per 100,000 for men).
Around 14% of women aged 45-74 years are at high risk of a heart attack over the following five years.
Effective treatment is available in hospital. But delaying treatment may reduce the benefit of therapies and lead to poorer outcomes.
How to reduce your risk of heart attacks
Taking steps to reduce the risk of heart disease and a heart attack is important for all women. Here are four things you can do today:
1. Get your heart health checked
Australians aged 45 years and older and Indigenous Australians aged 30 years and older can have a Medicare-funded heart health check with a GP.
During this appointment, your GP will calculate your risk of having a heart attack in the next five years. This will be done using information from your medical history, family history, lifestyle factors, and measurements such as your blood pressure and a blood test.
A heart health check includes getting your blood pressure checked. Shutterstock
Tests may also include an ECG (electrocardiogram) and CT calcium score. An ECG looks at your heart rhythm, while a CT calcium score measures the amount of calcium inside the walls of your heart’s arteries. This can indicate a build-up of plaque (a blockage) inside the blood vessel that could increase your risk of a heart attack.
Based on your risk score, the GP will be able to provide treatment advice to reduce your risk of a heart attack. If the risk score is high, they may recommend specific medicines. At lower risk scores, lifestyle modifications – such as changes to diet, exercise and quitting smoking – may be recommended as the initial approach.
Smoking substantially increases the risk of heart disease. It narrows and clogs the blood vessels, reducing blood supply and oxygen throughout the body. Smoking also makes the blood vessels stiff and unable to stretch.
People who smoke are four times more likely to die of heart disease and three times more likely to die of a heart attack.
Stopping smoking leads to better overall health at any age, and especially heart health. Support to stop smoking is available through Quit Line – it’s never too late to stop.
3. Get moving
Exercise has many physical and mental health benefits, including lowering blood pressure and cholesterol.
If you have heart disease, physical activity can help you manage the condition, lower the risk of type 2 diabetes and keep your weight in check. Achieving a healthy weight also reduces your risk for heart disease.
Walking is a great way to start exercising and can be done with a friend to provide peer support, or within community walking groups.
4. Swap unhealthy food
Swap out less healthy food for healthier options, including vegetables and fruits, and cut down on salt and soft drinks.
Making changes can be challenging, but start with a few achievable changes and low-cost, healthy recipes.
Access to preventative care, specialist support and rehabilitation following a heart attack is critical to reducing death and disability of heart disease.
More can be done to improve access to care, especially in priority groups such as women from culturally and linguistically diverse communities, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women, and women living in rural and remote Australia.
Better access to care requires ensuring primary care workforce capacity, especially in rural and remote areas, as well as funding and policies to increase access to primary care nurses, nurse practitioners and cardiac rehabilitation services.
Telehealth is a valuable tool to improve access to GPs and specialist cardiac services, especially in rural and remote areas.
All Australians have had a wake-up call to be aware of their heart health. Reducing your risk of heart disease begins with making a GP appointment for a heart health check to get personalised support to live a healthy life.
Sally Inglis currently receives funding from the Heart Foundation in the form of a Future Leader Fellowship. Sally is Chair of the Cardiovascular Nursing Council of the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ) and Deputy Chair of the NSW Cardiovascular Research Network.
Clara Chow has an NHMRC Investigator grant. She is President of the Cardiac Society Australia and New Zealand, a board member of the Western Sydney Local Health District, and on a steering group of the National Health Foundation, which is writing guidelines on cardiovascular risk assessment.
Patricia Davidson has received funding from the ARC, NHMRC and National Institutes of Health in the United States.
A View from Afar – In this podcast, political scientist Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning will unpack why the west is losing a strategic deterrence advantage against Russian Federation president Vladimir Putin.
In this episode Buchanan and Manning will analyse whether deterrence, in its various forms, is an effective tool against aggressive authoritarian opponents and specifically why NATO and the United States is at a disadvantage when attempting to use deterrence to gain leverage over Putin and the Russian offensive occurring against Ukraine and its peoples.
We know about the rules and conventions that prevent NATO and the United Nations from defending Ukrainians on Ukraine territory. But what of the Responsibility to Protect principles, RTPs designed to defend vulnerable and helpless populations? The RTP principle was invoked against Serbia and Kosovo in the late 1990s and led to NATO forces bombing Belgrade. Why is it not being used for humanitarian principles in 2022?
Also, Buchanan and Manning will examine the concepts of shatter and peripheral zones when it comes to war, and why Central Europe is the core shatter zone of past and present global conflict.
You are invited to lodge questions and comments via the social media links below, either prior to or during the live recording.
Join Paul and Selwyn for this LIVE recording of this podcast while they consider these big issues, and remember any comments you make while live can be included in this programme.
You can comment on this debate by clicking on one of these social media channels and interacting in the social media’s comment area. Here are the links:
Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category. You can follow A View from Afar via our affiliate syndicators.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Patrick Taylor, Chief Environmental Scientist, EPA Victoria; Honorary Professor, Macquarie University
Shutterstock
You probably clean your shoes if you step in something muddy or disgusting (please pick up after your dog!). But when you get home, do you always de-shoe at the door?
We are environmental chemists who have spent a decade examining the indoor environment and the contaminants people are exposed to in their own homes. Although our examination of the indoor environment, via our DustSafe program, is far from complete, on the question of whether to shoe or de-shoe in the home, the science leans toward the latter.
It is best to leave your filth outside the door.
It is best to leave your filth outside the door. Shutterstock
What contaminants are in your home, and how did they get there?
People spend up to 90% of their time indoors, so the question of whether or not to wear shoes in the house is not a trivial one.
The policy focus is typically on the outdoor environment for soil, air quality and environmental public health risks. However, there is growing regulatory interest in the question of indoorair quality.
The matter building up inside your home includes not just dust and dirt from people and pets shedding hair and skin.
About a third of it is from outside, either blown in or tramped in on those offensive shoe bottoms.
Some of the microorganisms present on shoes and floors are drug-resistant pathogens, including hospital-associated infectious agents (germs) that are very difficult to treat.
Add in cancer-causing toxins from asphalt road residue and endocrine-disrupting lawn chemicals, and you might view the filth on your shoes in a new light.
Please don’t do this. Shutterstock
A roll-call of indoor nasties
Our work has involved the measurement and assessment of exposure to a range of harmful substances found inside homes including:
the perfluorinated chemicals (also known as PFAS or “forever chemicals” because of their tendency to remain in the body and not break down) used ubiquitously in a multitude of industrial, domestic and food packaging products
These contaminants – and most importantly the dangerous neurotoxin lead – are odourless and colourless. So there is no way of knowing whether the dangers of lead exposure are only in your soils or your water pipes, or if they are also on your living room floor.
The most likely reason for this connection is dirt blown in from your yard or trodden in on your shoes, and on the furry paws of your adorable pets.
This connection speaks to the priority of making sure matter from your outdoor environment stays exactly there (we have tips here).
A recent Wall Street Journal article argued shoes in the home aren’t so bad. The author made the point that E. coli – dangerous bacteria that develop in the intestines of many mammals, including humans – is so widely distributed that it’s pretty much everywhere. So it should be no surprise it can be swabbed on shoe bottoms (96% of shoe bottoms, as the article pointed out).
But let’s be clear. Although it’s nice to be scientific and stick with the term E. coli, this stuff is, put more simply, the bacteria associated with poo.
Whether it is ours or Fido’s, it has the potential to make us very sick if we are exposed at high levels. And let’s face it – it is just plain gross.
Why walk it around inside your house if you have a very simple alternative – to take your shoes off at the door?
Why walk muck around inside your house if you have a very simple alternative – to take your shoes off at the door? Shutterstock
On balance, shoeless wins
So are there disadvantages to having a shoe-free household?
Beyond the occasional stubbed toe, from an environmental health standpoint there aren’t many downsides to having a shoe-free house. Leaving your shoes at the entry mat also leaves potentially harmful pathogens there as well.
We all know prevention is far better than treatment and taking shoes off at the door is a basic and easy prevention activity for many of us.
Need shoes for foot support? Easy – just have some “indoor shoes” that never get worn outside.
There remains the issue of the “sterile house syndrome,” which refers to increased rates of allergies among children. Some argue it’s related to overly sterile households.
Indeed, some dirt is probably beneficial as studies have indicated it helps develop your immune system and reduce allergy risk.
But there are better and less gross ways to do that than walking around inside with your filthy shoes on. Get outside, go for a bushwalk, enjoy the great outdoors.
Just don’t bring the muckier parts of it inside to build up and contaminate our homes.
Mark Patrick Taylor received funding via an Australian Government Citizen Science Grant (2017-2020), CSG55984 ‘Citizen insights to the composition and risks of household dust’ (the DustSafe project). He is an Honorary Professor at Macquarie University and a full time employee of EPA Victoria, appointed to the statutory role of Chief Environmental Scientist.
Gabriel Filippelli does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nic Smith, Provost and Professor of Engineering, Academic Division, Queensland University of Technology
Waipapa Marae, University of Auckland campus.Shutterstock
He aha te kai a te rangatira? He korerō, he korerō, he korerō.
What is the food of leaders? It is communication. – Māori proverb
Growing up on the other side of the Ditch, I had the usual dreams and even aspirations of becoming an All Black – despite my lack of size, speed and rugby skill. None of those constraints prevented me from imagining All Black glory when I learnt my first haka as a ten-year-old. I still get goose bumps whenever it’s performed, as I expect do many tourists and rugby followers around the world who know this fierce ceremonial dance as an iconic part of Aotearoa New Zealand’s Māori culture.
The haka is both a unique call to action and a powerful celebration of Māori identity and history. It was because of its importance that I found it confronting several years ago leading a University of Auckland faculty whose own history, specifically with the haka and with Māori more generally, was all too often fraught. Decades earlier, as part of graduation celebrations, engineering students would perform haka that over the years increasingly mocked its heritage and significance in both Māori culture and New Zealand society.
These tensions escalated, resulting in a clash between these students and local Māori, which was uncomfortable and confronting at the time. The offensive haka parodies stopped, but the underlying lack of respect was left unresolved.
Like many unresolved issues it generated constant, ongoing tension, which subtly but relentlessly undermined both an important partnership and the faculty’s aspiration to be a place of respect and inclusion. What had started off with direct conflict had transitioned over 40 years into a less confronting but arguably more insidious combination of understandable resentment on the part of Māori and at best unexpressed guilt and at worst apathetic lip service on the part of Pākehā and others.
Me Hoki Whakamuri Kia Anga Whakamua. The Faculty of Engineering and the Haka – our story.
The day it dawned on me
My frustration about this uneasy truce came to a head one afternoon at a university function celebrating diversity. The main speaker was a Māori member of staff. She was compellingly describing the opportunity we had to create a genuine partnership and enhance our sense of uniqueness, belonging and community in ways that very much transcended any of the many strategic plans the university had produced.
As I listened, I noticed an eminent professor next to me gazing out the window with an expression of polite indifference. He gave the impression of merely waiting for formalities to end so he could leave with his guilt assuaged, having supported the function simply by attending. As I considered this my frustration escalated to anger: here was a white, middle-aged male who to all appearances was simply embodying lip service – playing a proverbial dead-bat not only to the challenge but also to the opportunity.
Then it occurred to me: could I be certain what my colleague was really thinking? And “playing a dead bat” – why had this metaphor sprung to my mind? I had no idea if this man had grown up playing cricket on manicured lawns surrounded by peers dressed in white.
The reason I thought of that metaphor was that cricket was my childhood activity (notwithstanding dreams of All Black glory). The uncomfortable fact was that there was not one but two white, middle-aged men standing next to each other at the function. To all observers I suspect we looked very similar.
I realised then that it was not enough just to ensure that experts had the support and resources they needed to step into the void created when (typically much less expert) leaders such as myself stepped back. Resourcing and support had to be accompanied by my own acknowledgement and celebration of the opportunity to be a student of what these colleagues had to say.
Why humility and courage are needed
The academic culture (and sometimes society at large) lauds and rewards expertise. However, this sometimes deters people from demonstrating ignorance or incompetence even if these states are necessary staging points of a learning process. As people acquire status and acknowledgement in one field, it often only increases the perceived risk of losing face by publicly participating, and possibly failing, when trying something completely different.
Once one has been cast as an expert and a leader, it can be difficult in our academic culture to adopt the humble posture of the pupil. It takes courage. Yet this humility is essential if we are ever to learn and change.
As I stood at that function, I realised this lack of courage had been my chief failing. By standing quietly in the background, despite my good intentions, I had done nothing to lower the risk for other staff to engage and make mistakes – key steps in their own development. I resolved to change how I did things.
From that point on I did engage – and I made plenty of mistakes. I asked ignorant questions that still make me blush. I stumbled over welcomes in te reo Māori – Māori language. I messed up protocols. I mispronounced names. I displayed my ignorance left and right.
But in time, and with the support of patient, generous and incredibly understanding expert colleagues, I learned. And, much more importantly, I saw others join me on that learning path.
Ultimately, that group of others became big enough for us to create and perform our own haka. This haka, with more expert help, was able to respectfully acknowledge our difficult history but also reclaim our right to move boldly into the future.
The All Blacks performed a traditional haka, Ka mate, until 2005, but then developed Kapa O Pango, specifically for and about the All Blacks. Shutterstock
While that ten-year-old never became an All Black, he did get the opportunity – complete with goosebumps – to perform that haka to Māori leaders who were involved in that conflict 40 years earlier. I was surrounded by colleagues, many of whom had become my friends, students, many of whom had become my teachers, and that same eminent professor, who was certainly no longer gazing out the window. Those three minutes remain a highlight in my time as a university leader.
Nic Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
As COVID restrictions ease, many employers are encouraging staff to return to the office. While some may be looking forward to this, others are dreading going back to places where they previously experienced daily racism and microaggressions.
There is increasing pressure on Black professionals to return to workplaces where racist environments pose serious risks to their well-being and health.
In this article, we use the word Black to refer to political identities connected to ancestry, as well as a cultural and social experience of race. Here, we use it to communicate shared recognition of trauma and fear caused by racism among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples and Black African peoples.
The shared use of the term also indicates Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples’ ongoing solidarity and connections with other Black peoples around the world.
Working from home arrangements can offer some workers a much needed respite from white corporate culture and racist environments. GettyImages
Examples of racial microaggressions include racialised comments on people’s appearance, speech and identity, as well as unfair scrutiny of their professional expertise and performance.
The 2020 Gari Yala (Speak the Truth) survey of more than 1,000 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander employees found substantial experiences of racism in workplaces. Of those surveyed, 44% reported hearing racial slurs sometimes, often or always in their workplace, while 59% reported receiving comments about the way they look or “should” look as an Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander person.
In a 2021 study, social work scholar Kathomi Gatwiri described Australian workplaces as “battlegrounds” for Black African professionals where both overt and covert racial microaggressions are commonplace.
Gatwiri defines racial microaggressions as “everyday” or “passive” racism. These serve to invalidate the expertise of Black people while positioning white expertise as “best practice”.
The racism may not be overt at times, but it is still incredibly damaging and harmful. As race scholar Deb Bargallie demonstrates in her 2021 book on racism in the public service, employers can discriminate under the guise of “merit” and “performance”. This places blame on employees experiencing racism rather than holding the organisation accountable.
Bargallie tells the story of Charles Perkins who, even as a widely respected activist and a high-ranking public servant in Aboriginal Affairs, experienced systematic racism from white executives, managers and colleagues throughout his career. Describing his first six months at the Office of Aboriginal Affairs, Perkins said
People set out deliberately to show me where I belonged (or should belong), and to make me feel completely an inferior person and nonentity.
The US experience
In the US, others have observed a similar reluctance to return to the office among racial minorities.
In a 2021 survey by Slack’s Future Forum, 97% of Black participants in the US reported a preference for remote working conditions. In another Future Forum survey, 64% of Black respondents said they found it easier to manage stress when working from home.
Even before the pandemic, researchers argued close quarters and open plan office designs in many workplaces further exacerbate existing racial tensions and inequalities.
Australian employers have legal obligations to provide their employees with safe work conditions and environments.
Given racism is endemic in many workplaces, some employers will now be asking Black professionals to return to environments that pose serious risks to our mental and physical health.
In Australia, as with other predominantly white colonial nations, racism against Black peoples is a public health crisis. Race-related stress contributes to significant health and life-expectancy disparities between white and Black peoples.
This is on top of the already serious public health risk of COVID, which has most severely impacted Black and Indigenous communities around the world.
In Australia, state governments have been criticised for rolling back health restrictions without proper consultation with vulnerable communities, even as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people face an increased mortality risk.
If Black professionals can work from home, and feel safer when they do so, this is one measure employers can take to protect staff from the harms of racial discrimination – and an ongoing pandemic.
While working from home does not negate racism, it may offer respite from constant scrutiny and racialised commentary in the workplace, in addition to the more general work-life balance benefits, such as being able to both work and care for loved ones at home.
Workplaces now have a rare opportunity to create viable anti-racist change for Black employees.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
First Nations media outlets provide a critical role in the day-to-day lives of Indigenous people. In times of crisis, the service they provide is even more important.
Yet they get little recognition or support for the work they do, and do not receive the funding they need.
The flooding in NSW and Queensland has once again shown what these outlets provide. This is why the government and the general public need to do more to support them.
First Nations organisations are vital for communities
There are more than 60 First Nations community-controlled organisations in over 235 towns, cities and remote communities across Australia, providing tailored, local news.
In some of these places, where internet connection is poor or non-existent, these outlets are the only reliable source of information.
Indigenous Broadcasting Services provide much more than radio – they are community assets that contribute to strengthening culture, community development and the local economy.
The Koori Mail’s response to the NSW floods
The Koori Mail is Australia’s premier and only First Nations-controlled newspaper, started in 1991 by five Bundjalung groups and 100% self-funded. Issued fortnightly, it shares news and events from across the country told from the perspective of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and communities.
In the wake of the disaster, the newspaper became the central hub for flood relief in Lismore. This is despite the fact the Koori Mail building – located by the Wilson River levee bank – was itself flooded.
Volunteers coordinated activities from the footpath outside their ruined office. They arranged helicopter and boat supply drop-offs, cooked meals, clean-up crews and tradespeople, emergency housing, safety and emergency advice, medical attention, mental health support and more.
The Koori Mail’s GoFundMe campaign has now raised over $640,000 to fund these efforts. The newspaper has just started fundraising for its own much-needed rebuild.
The Koori Mail’s general manager Naomi Moran has said
Even though Koori Mail has suffered a great loss here, our key responsibility is to make sure that our people are OK first, not just our staff, not just our board members, but our community. So we’re really trying to take the lead and be a hub of information for our mob, especially online.
The Koori Mail’s ability to step into the breach and coordinate this effort highlights the unique and invaluable role played by First Nations media organisations in times of crisis.
First Nations media leading the way in crisis responses
A report released in January, co-authored with First Nations Media Australia and the Judith Nielsen Institute, investigated the role of First Nations media outlets throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.
It showed First Nations media organisations provide a reliable, trusted source of information, often in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander languages, to combat misinformation and help address mental health and welfare issues, for audiences who often mistrust or feel excluded by mainstream media services.
The report provided case studies of three First Nations media organisations:
PAW Media in central Australia delivered culturally appropriate and locally relevant health advice to people and addressed misinformation in Warlpiri language
3KND in Melbourne helped keep the Aboriginal community across Melbourne connected, informed and supported with mental health advice during extended lockdown periods
Wilcannia River Radio in western NSW provided support for online learning and updated heath messages during the major COVID outbreak in August 2021. In the past, it also distributed fresh water to households when town water supplies dried up.
The report states how First Nations media organisations have played a critical role in keeping communities strong, resilient and connected. These organisations are often going above and beyond broadcasting and communicating through media channels by being physically on the street or communicating with people over the phone or at community events.
How can First Nations media be better supported and more accessible?
First Nations Media Australia notes that 53% of First Nations people cannot access First Nations radio services, including in Adelaide, Canberra, regional Victoria and Tasmania.
This is a missed opportunity to provide these communities with relevant news and information, cultural and community connections, language revitalisation efforts, and job and skill development in media and journalism.
For the first time in decades, however, there are signs that governments are recognising the crucial role of First Nations media. Digital inclusion has been included as a specific target in the 2020 Closing the Gap Agreement, with governments committing to work with First Nations media to communicate with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander audiences.
However, significantly greater government investment is needed to provide the jobs, skills and technical upgrades needed to build the First Nations media sector’s capacity and impact.
First Nations community-controlled media organisations provide much more than information. They provide emergency and community services — and are trusted to do so as place-based, culturally safe services and storytellers.
Dr Daniel Featherstone is part of the Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision Making and Society, which receives Australian Research Council funding. He leads the Mapping the Digital Gap research project, which has Telstra as a key funding partner. He previously worked as General Manager of First Nations Media Australia.
Archie Thomas receives funding from Aboriginal Affairs NSW.
Dr Lyndon Ormond-Parker is part of the Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision Making and Society, receives funding from the Australian Research Council (CE200100005) and Telstra on the Mapping the Digital Gap in Indigenous Communities Project. He has also conducted research in partnership with First Nations Media Australia.
New Zealand Parliament Buildings, Wellington, New Zealand.
Editor’s Note: Here below is Dr Bryce Edwards’ New Zealand Political Roundup – which analyses one prominent topic being debated in New Zealand and links to media coverage. You can sign up to NZ Political Roundup for free here.
Political Roundup: Behind Simon Bridges’ shock departure, and what comes next
Last week’s shock 1News opinion poll was the final indication, if Bridges needed it, that his chances of eventually taking back the leadership and becoming PM were slim to none. Any feeling that it was worth waiting around to see if Luxon might stumble over the next couple of years could be put to bed.
Bridges says he had been thinking of departing for some time, beginning with the coup against him prior to the 2020 election, when Todd Muller was installed with the help of Chris Bishop and Nicola Willis.
Despite that setback, Bridges managed to stay energised and clearly wanted to regain the top position. After all, prior to Covid hitting, National was on 46 per cent in the polls in an election year and he had been on track to become New Zealand’s first Māori prime minister.
While in the political wilderness after the coup, Bridges went through a remarkable renaissance, publishing a well-received and thoughtful book, growing his hair, and becoming widely described as rather “Zen”. And although he was sanguine enough about future ambitions to run for leader again just a few months ago, he says he was also mulling a departure from politics.
With Luxon as leader, Bridges played a key role in helping rebalance the party and unify the factions. He returned to form as a frontbench finance spokesperson, being a real threat to Grant Robertson, and more recently pushing a very successful cost of living campaign.
This means that Bridges departs on something of a high. Much like John Key, he goes out when people aren’t expecting it. And, as with Key, many have been looking for the “real” reason for his departure. But a consensus has quickly developed that there is no scandal behind Bridges’ resignation. His explanation can be taken at face value. The attraction of spending more time with his family and developing a new (un-announced) career in Auckland after years of bruising and turbulent times in the bear pit of the National caucus will ring true for most.
What Bridges’ departure says about problems in National
The personal and positive explanations that Bridges has given for his departure shouldn’t blind us from the push factors. He’s not spilling the beans about them at the moment, wanting his departure to be full of grace and positivity.
There is the problem of Jami-Lee Ross’ upcoming trial scheduled for July. Even if there are no more damaging revelations about Bridges’ involvement in the alleged illegal donations, having what has already been revealed dragged into public view again will not be helpful to either Bridges or National, especially if he was still a sitting National MP.
And there are clearly internal political factors at play. Bridges is departing in defeat, and leaving behind a National caucus that is said to be still frustrating him.
He has had to endure working closely with an inner circle including Christopher Bishop and Nicola Willis, who are leaders of National’s liberal faction and were behind the ill-fated Todd Muller leadership coup. He is said to feel betrayed by them and that relationship was never going to recover.
Insiders say that as the leader of the conservative faction in National, Bridges has felt marginalised under the new leadership.
Richard Harman writes today: “That he has decided to go has raised questions among some in the caucus about whether conservatives like him are slowly being squeezed out of decision making. There are also suggestions that he was frustrated with the way things were being run under Luxon, even that he was unhappy with some staff appointments.”
As to who is likely to take over as essentially the conservative faction leader, Harman points to the prospect of Shane Reti (promoted today to number four in the National hierarcy) and Louise Upston moving further into the inner circle of the leadership. This might go some way to helping find greater equilibrium in National’s traditional liberal-conservative ideological balancing act.
At the moment, the liberals dominate, which means National is light on appealing to more conservative voters. Stuff political editor Luke Malpass put it this way: “Bridges was cut from more conservative and confrontational cloth than Luxon. He was not worried about going after some culture wars issues and be tough on crime and gangs and drugs. He represented part of National’s caucus, and an important wider constituency of the party. Without him in that position, someone else will have to step up.”
The big hole Bridges leaves in National
Bridges’ departure also leaves National with plenty of other problems. Losing any high-calibre frontbench politician is unfortunate, but particularly when the caucus is so lacking in experience. With a newbie like Luxon at the helm, it was highly advantageous to have the experienced Bridges there beside him.
National has lost the more mongrel and aggressive way that Bridges took the fight to Labour, but also his intellectualism – he had developed a reputation as one of the more thoughtful contributors to policy development and direction.
Overall, having Bridges depart just when National is climbing fast in the polls is an unfortunate setback in its campaign to return to power next year. As Harman writes today, “Resigning after just over three months of the new leadership team is hardly a vote of confidence.” And the continuity of the caucus with the John Key era also evaporates – Bridges was the last frontbencher standing from National’s last turn at the helm (with Judith Collins and Gerry Brownlee now much further down the rankings).
Bridges was also a key part of his party’s claim to diversity, and this loss could make National even more vulnerable to criticism on this front. Although, as Bridges explained in his recent book, he was often disparaged by liberals for not being “Māori enough”. However, his replacement as Finance spokesperson is a woman, and surely Luxon and the caucus will demand that the new candidate for Tauranga isn’t a white male.
National reshuffle and finance role
The appointment of Nicola Willis as Finance spokesperson is a smart choice by Luxon. Not only does he have strong trust in the deputy leader, respect for her is growing in the caucus. There might be some questions about her qualifications, but her previous role on the Finance and Expenditure select committee was well regarded. National will also stress her time in the corporate world, working for Fonterra.
Of course, Willis has also excelled in the Housing portfolio. As Thomas Coughlan writes today, “she helped to detoxify housing for National to the point where a recent Ipsos poll had National ahead of Labour when it comes to the party most backed to address the housing crisis.”
What’s more, she is a moderate on economics, and not someone who will scare swing voters. Instead, she was a protégé of both Bill English and John Key. And unlike Chris Bishop, who was the favourite amongst many commentators for the Finance role, she doesn’t have a background in lobbying and the tobacco industry – something that is still a blackmark for this otherwise heavy-hitting performer.
By-election fights and outcomes
Perhaps the biggest criticism to be made of Bridges’ decision to depart is that he is leaving halfway through the Parliamentary term, after having just committed 18 months ago to serving a full term. Retiring politicians normally agree to at least serve out their time. In this case, Bridges causes an expensive by-election, estimated by the Electoral Commission to cost about $1m, to say nothing of the extra Covid-related campaign costs, and the expense for campaigning political parties.
Nonetheless it will be a chance for National to renew itself, bringing in fresh talent and perhaps injecting greater diversity into its caucus. The most likely candidate for the role is Rotorua Lakes District Councillor Tania Tapsell, who is a rising star in the party (her great uncle is former Speaker of the House and Labour MP Sir Peter Tapsell). She stood for National at the last election in the East Coast electorate.
Obviously New Zealand First might bite at the chance of a by-election in Winston Peters’ old electorate, where traditional conservative voters still dominate, especially with a very high proportion of superannuants.
Peters may hope for another upset like he caused when he won the Northland seat off National in 2015. This time around, such a feat is highly unlikely, but it would be a good chance for the populist party to rail against Labour’s Three Waters and iwi co-governance model, as well as the decision to deny the Tauranga City Council the right to have an election this year. On the other hand, the by-election is likely to occur just when New Zealand First is set to be in the headlines with their own High Court trial about party donations.
A loss by National in Tauranga is unlikely. But we live in strange, polarised, unsettled times – especially as evidenced by the recent parliamentary protests. And by-elections occasionally throw up surprise results. Bridges’ majority was slashed from 11,252 in 2017 to just 1,856 in 2020, so if Peters can capture a reasonable chunk of the anti-government vote it could get very interesting. If Peters was to stand and actually win, after last losing there to Bridges in 2011, it would certainly be an ironic historical conclusion to Bridges’ career.Further reading on Simon Bridges and National
Tom Pullar-Strecker (Stuff): TVNZ and RNZ merger: why I’m dubbing it ‘Ti Kōuka’
The rationale for the Government’s “new public media entity” remains poorly articulated, and funding issues are confused and fraught according to this very thorough dissection of the proposal.
Geoffrey Miller (Democracy Project): Russia’s war on Ukraine puts New Zealand’s refugee policy and China strategy in sharper focus
How well is New Zealand developing its humanitarian assistance for Ukrainians fleeing the war? Not very, according to Geoffrey Miller. And he points out that the Government is failing to fill its refugee quota. Also, if China enter the Ukraine-Russia war, the potential ramifications could be enormous for New Zealand.
Suze Wilson (The Conversation): From ‘pretty communist’ to ‘Jabcinda’ – what’s behind the vitriol directed at Jacinda Ardern?
Management academic Suze Wilson argues that the PM is now one of the most reviled people in the country, mostly for factors beyond her control. Wilson argues that the misogyny and the negativity about Ardern say more about her detractors than about the PM herself.
Dileepa Fonseka (Stuff): Inflation backlash shows Fortress New Zealand is not a sustainable strategy
According to last week’s 1News opinion poll, 75 per cent of New Zealanders want the borders open to tourists and visitors. This column looks into the big philosophical shift that is occurring in terms of attitudes to globalisation.
Camryn Brown (Democracy Project): Labour’s prescription is always more Wellington (paywalled)
The Government’s instinct for more centralisation is not necessarily healthy. Camryn Brown argues against the public service becoming more physically distant from its people through centralisation.
Max Rashbrooke (RNZ): Government makes inroads on poverty but what’s left in its toolkit?
Some statistics recently publish suggest improvements are occurring in terms of economic inequality. But Max Rashbrooke warns us to take care with such statistics, and concludes the Government urgently needs to find more ways of alleviating problems for those at the bottom of the heap.
Samantha Murton (Herald): Scope of doctor shortage crisis revealed (paywalled)
Research out today confirms that there is a crisis in the number of GPs, and it’s going to get much worse. The president of the Royal New Zealand College of General Practitioners urges the Government to avoid an even greater healthcare crisis by training more GPs.
Andrew Bevin (NBR): Severe shortage sees ‘shocking’ increase in cost of hiring staff (paywalled)
Staff recruitment costs in New Zealand are going up. According to this report, the average cost to hire new staff is $25,300, twice what it was a year earlier.
Bill Hickman and Ellen O’Dwyer (Stuff): Trashed Parliament grounds reopen to the public after occupation’s violent end
Parliament grounds have been officially reopened to the public this morning, after the 23-day anti-mandate occupation. Speaker Trevor Mallard and Te Ātiawa Taranaki held a ceremony at 7.45am today.
The Commerce Commission’s report into New Zealand’s supermarket sector has been criticised for not going far enough to reduce food prices, but the answer to the current duopoly might lie in treating the sector as a public utility instead of a private industry.
When the commission’s report was released last week, many were disappointed the watch dog didn’t propose stronger measures to rein in the sector. The commission called for a mandatory code of conduct between supermarkets and suppliers. It also recommended greater transparency around specials and loyalty programmes.
But even the commission itself indicated that the “one off” market restructuring measures suggested by some might not be effective to reduce grocery costs.
The inherent nature of unregulated food markets means nearly all channels of food distribution will contain a small number of dominant industry leaders, distorting the pricing of food products for other industry participants.
Power is therefore unavoidable, but this does not mean its misuse is inevitable. Properly directed, market power in the hands of a few players could prove beneficial to consumers as well as other businesses in the sector.
New Zealand’s grocery sector is dominated by two companies – Woolworths, which runs Countdown, and Foodstuffs, which operates Pak’n Save, New World and Four Square. Customers have long expressed concerned over high prices in the duopoly. Dave Rowland/Getty Images
This fairer supermarket sector could be achieved if the industry power players were governed as regulated public utilities, much like power and water. But such an approach would need to be legislated and has to combine simplicity with easy and effective enforcement.
To do this, the government should implement some key regulatory principles.
New regulations would need to ensure supermarkets do not engage in wholesale or manufacturing activity. The key to supermarket power is their control of the retail point of sale. If supermarkets are to be regulated as public utilities, then it is essential they are restricted solely to this activity.
As public utilities, individual supermarket sites should only be allowed to charge a single fixed and publicly stated margin on the goods they sell. This is a novel requirement, but it is core to the process of regulating a supermarket as a utility.
Supermarkets act as a middleman between consumers and producers. The mutual ignorance of what is happening on the other side of the retail barrier allows the supermarkets to manipulate consumers and suppliers at will. It is the key process that converts supermarket power to profit.
The requirement that supermarkets must apply a single, publicly posted margin to all the products in their store sets this capacity to zero, and promptly makes the retailer a fully transparent channel for suppliers and consumers.
Regulation should include suppliers
Producers and suppliers should not be overlooked in this new regulatory regime. The concentration of wholesalers allows large businesses to dominate non-retail food sectors such as restaurants.
The primary outcome of this – a lack of difference between supermarket retail and wholesale prices for food products – is noted in the Commerce Commission’s materials.
The Commerce Commission recommended a code of conduct between suppliers and supermarkets to improve suppliers’ bargaining power. Phil Walter/Getty Images
Wholesalers should not be allowed to discount products for individual buyers. At the same time, wholesalers should not be allowed to decline service to any buyers at that price unless they can demonstrate that the goods in question are not available and cannot be procured.
Rule breakers should be punished
The transparency these regulations create means rule breaking can be clearly and directly observed without needing to go to the supermarkets themselves. Any effective regulation must also represent an immediate risk of penalties to those who break the rules.
With this in mind, infringements need to be treated as “per se” offences – meaning a crime is committed simply by infringement without regulators having to prove harm to third parties. Legal action against infringers needs to be available not only to the supervising entity, but also by any private citizen, body corporate or agency of local or national government.
The supervising government entity should be an integral part of a ministry that answers directly to a minister of the Crown. Finally, penalties need to be significant and levied directly against the executive officers with responsibility for breaking the rules.
There is nothing wrong with powerful retailers as long as they are fully transparent to both suppliers and consumers, and their power can then be used for the general public good.
There is also no reason why such regulated and transparent entities should not make a reasonable return on capital for an activity that is effectively risk free. What is a reasonable return? Maybe for any supermarket owner, a reasonable expectation of return might be the equivalent to winning the lottery once a career rather than once a year.
Robert Hamlin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jake Whitehead, Tritum E-Mobility Fellow & Advance Queensland Industry Research Fellow, The University of Queensland
Shutterstock
As petrol prices soar and climate change impacts make themselves felt, many people are likely wondering if their next car should be a fully electric vehicle.
Yes, the upfront costs are generally higher – but what does the future hold? Will prices fall in coming years and what costs do you need to factor into your decision?
The unfortunate truth is unless policy settings in Australia change, we shouldn’t expect a significant increase in the number of electric vehicles (EVs) available to Australians over the coming years.
It’s important we all start to make the switch to this cleaner technology, but unfortunately that choice is not available to many Australian households and businesses due to a lack of local, supportive policy.
EVs in Australia are currently A$15,000-20,000 more expensive than petrol or diesel cars. But in some market segments – like some sub-premium sedans priced between $60,000 and $75,000 – they are already at parity.
Several manufacturers have promised to bring more supply to the Australian market in 2022 but many of these vehicles were meant to be here in 2021 (with their arrival pushed back).
If you’re thinking of making the switch to an EV, here’s what to consider:
don’t focus only on the price tag. With petrol prices now pushing past $2 per litre, many Australians will find themselves paying more than $2,000 in fuel each year for every car they own. Electric vehicles can be charged for the equivalent of around $0.20 per litre, or even cheaper when using your home solar. These savings add up, totalling more than $20,000 over the life of the vehicle.
EVs are cheaper to maintain, and in some cases have no servicing costs. This equates to thousands of dollars potentially saved over the life of the vehicle.
what about charging? Anywhere you have access to a standard power point you can charge an EV. With cars parked 90% of the time, and mainly driven fewer than 50 kilometres per day, a couple of hours’ charging is more than enough for most. If you want a quicker charge, you can install a wall charger in your garage. And if you park on the street you can use the growing list of public fast chargers across the country or ask your workplace to install a charger.
The reality, though, is that if there’s no change to policy settings, we can expect the EV market in Australia to stay much the same this year and for many years to come.
This means many Australians won’t have a choice but to continue to pay for expensive imported fuel, instead of using cheap Australian energy to power our vehicles.
One of Australia’s disadvantages is we are a market for right-hand-drive vehicles, and many European and American EVs just aren’t built that way. The UK is also a right-hand-drive market, where people have a similar average incomes and quality of life compared to Australia. But the EV market there is very different with more than 160 EV models compared with around 50 in Australia.
The key difference is the UK has a (conservative) government that has embraced the technology and understands the broader economic benefits of making EVs easy for people to get and run.
Yes, Australia has boosted EV charging infrastructure but that’s not enough to encourage manufacturers to bring more models to this country (which would help get more affordable EVs on the market).
There were about 6.6 million EVs sold worldwide in 2021. So 6.6 million x 1.3% equals about 85,000 cars. That’s 85,000 EVs that should have been sold here last year if our market was in line with global trends.
But in fact, the number of EVs sold here was just over 21,000 in 2021. So we are about a quarter of the size we should be.
There’s plenty of demand for EVs in Australia, we just cannot get enough delivered because we haven’t got the right policy settings.
There is plenty of demand for EVs in Australia, we just cannot get enough delivered. Shutterstock
What policies could help?
Policies that would help make EVs more affordable in Australia include:
incentives to bring down the upfront cost of EVs. Some people say this is subsidising rich people but clever policy would support jobs in the Australian energy market. It’s estimated we spend more than A$30 billion on foreign fuel for our cars every year. Redirecting that money to powering EVs would help keep those billions in the country, and support local Australian energy jobs.
we don’t have a fuel efficiency standard, putting us in poor company with Russia as two of the last remaining major economies without such standards. That’s why people say Australia is a dumping ground for vehicles that are illegal to sell overseas. The markets that have fuel efficiency standards are getting all of the EV supply.
having a clear target of EV sales for the next five to 15 years would support achieving net zero by 2050 – in other words, selling the last petrol or diesel car by the mid-2030s.
So what’s the market outlook?
Not much will change in Australia unless there’s a change in policy. We are competing with markets that have the right policies to stimulate EV sales. The manufacturers are, of course, going to prioritise supply there.
There will be small increases in EV sales in Australia every year. But it will take a number of years for the supply of these new vehicles to ramp up.
I’m sorry to be the bearer of bad news. And I do hope your next vehicle purchase is an EV, after considering all of the costs over the life of the vehicle. It is the right thing to do for the climate and the long-term savings are attractive, especially if fuel prices continue to be so volatile.
Unfortunately, though, Australians should not expect EVs to suddenly become cheap and easy to buy here in the next couple of years – unless policy changes.
Dr Jake Whitehead is on unpaid leave from his role as a Research Fellow at The University of Queensland. He is a Member of the International Electric Vehicle Policy Council, is a Lead Author of the AR6 Transport Chapter for The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and Director of Transmobility Consulting. He has previously received government funding for several sustainable transport projects, including research on both hydrogen and electric vehicles. He is also holds a part-time position as the Head of Policy at the Electric Vehicle Council.
About three weeks into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it’s safe to say things aren’t going Russia’s way – and it has yet to achieve objectives that were planned to be completed in the first few days.
The longer Russia’s advance is bogged down, the greater the chance it will consider taking drastic action, which may potentially include using weapons of mass destruction.
As improbable as this is, it’s not impossible. Under what circumstances might weapons of mass destruction be used?
The weapon of mass destruction most likely to be used is a chemical weapon. Russia once possessed the world’s largest stockpile of chemical weapons, ranging from nerve agents such as Sarin and VX, to mustard gas and the toxic gas phosgene.
Although Russia claims to have destroyed its arsenal by 2017, the use of the nerve agent Novichok during assassination attempts in 2018 and 2020 demonstrates it continues to possess chemical weapons, although the quantities and types (aside from Novichok) are unknown.
According to reports, US and allied officials suspect Russia may be planning (or considering) a “false flag” operation involving the use of chemical weapons, to establish a belated justification for the invasion of Ukraine, despite the obvious logical inconsistency.
In this context, Russia could launch a chemical weapon attack and blame Ukrainian forces, or attack a small portion of its own forces with chemical weapons to “justify” a response in kind.
Or it may locate a stockpile of “Ukrainian” chemical weapons and use this as a post-hoc justification of the invasion, similar to how the United States used the claim of alleged weapons of mass destruction to justify the invasion of Iraq in the second Gulf War.
While this is all speculation for now, it demonstrates how the spectre of chemical weapons looms over the Ukraine invasion.
If chemical weapons were used, the effects would be horrific – not just in terms of loss of life, but also because the areas impacted would become uninhabitable.
Many chemical weapons persist in the environment. In the case of some (nerve agents in particular), a single touch on the skin is enough to cause death in seconds or minutes. Decontaminating affected areas would be enormously difficult and dangerous.
For now, we have not seen Russian soldiers equipped with the protective equipment needed to operate in a chemical-hazard environment. This suggests chemical weapons use is not imminent.
The other mass destruction threat relevant here is nuclear weapons, both tactical and strategic. It’s estimated Russia has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, with a total of 4,477 nuclear weapons (of which 1,912 are thought to be tactical nuclear weapons).
Tactical nuclear weapons are intended for use on the battlefield, whereas strategic nuclear weapons are used to destroy strategic targets such as cities. In practical terms, the only key difference between them is the delivery system. Tactical nuclear weapons are deployed using shorter-range delivery systems such as artillery, short-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles or tactical aircraft.
Given their focus, they may have lower explosive yields than strategic weapons – but not necessarily. Most modern tactical nuclear warheads have far greater explosive power than the nuclear bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki by the US during the second world war.
Operationally, tactical nuclear weapons would be capable of blowing wide, deep holes in opposing lines. As such, they could facilitate a breakthrough of Ukrainian defences, or provide a way to destroy significant targets such as airfields or key staging areas.
Preparations for such an attack would be difficult to detect. Many of the weapons systems being used by Russia are “dual-capable”, meaning they can deliver conventional and nuclear weapons.
The Iskander short-range ballistic missile is a ‘dual-capable’ weapon. Defense Ministry Press Service/AP
While nuclear weapons use is unlikely, Russian President Vladimir Putin has increased the alert level of his nuclear forces, and issued poorly veiled threats alluding to Russia’s nuclear arsenal as a deterrent to NATO intervention in the conflict.
The risk of nuclear weapons use by Russia could increase, however, if Putin is further backed into a wall and Russia feels its progress is being increasingly derailed. This is extremely unlikely, but not impossible.
What is unknown is how the West would react to the use of nuclear weapons. While there would be justified outrage, it may well deter the West from further involvement so as to avoid being drawn into a full-scale nuclear conflict.
This would well and truly be uncharted territory. Nuclear weapons have never been used during a time when multiple nations possess them.
Russia’s ‘de-escalation’ doctrine
Should the conflict escalate and NATO get involved, the worst possible outcome would be a strategic nuclear exchange between NATO and Russia. In this scenario, both sides would seek the complete destruction of the other, targeting cities and other key strategic targets.
If a conventional conflict between NATO and Russia occurred (which Russia would almost certainly lose), Russia would immediately seek to “de-escalate” the conflict as per its nuclear doctrine.
While this might sound great on paper, in practice it is anything but. What this strategy actually alludes to is: escalate to de-escalate. Russia would aim for a rapid escalation, to the point of using nuclear weapons, to force NATO to back down.
While this is alarming, it’s also coldly logical. Russia calculates NATO may be willing to risk conventional conflict, but not nuclear war. So an immediate escalation across the nuclear threshold could well give NATO pause.
Should it come to this, Russia would likely not target cities or large troop concentrations (as this would risk galvanising support among NATO populations for retaliation).
Instead, Russia would either conduct a final warning shot (such as by detonating a nuclear weapon over the ocean), or hit several strategic targets while minimising NATO and civilian losses. This could include important airfields, ports, road and rail junctions, munitions dumps or fuel storage facilities, as some examples.
NATO intervention may prove disastrous
The Russian government of course denies it would use this strategy. It insists it would only use nuclear weapons to defend Russia, and not in a preemptive manner.
However, various statements by Russian defence officials over the years indicate a doctrine of de-escalation and preemptive nuclear threats. The US has openly said it considers de-escalation to be Russia’s guiding nuclear doctrine.
Events may transpire that could easily lead to the situation escalating, in which case the risk of a full nuclear exchange is significant.
For example, there have been demands for NATO to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine. While this might initially sound reasonable, it means NATO aircraft would need to engage and shoot down Russian aircraft operating over Ukraine. Russia would likely retaliate, and the conflict may well spiral out of control.
NATO intervention of any kind would bring the world closer to nuclear war than at any time in the post-Cold War era. And the potential devastation can’t be ignored.
James Dwyer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nathan Bartlett, Associate Professor, School of Biomedical Sciences and Pharmacy, University of Newcastle
When I began drafting this article, COVID cases in Australia were coming down and the situation was stabilising.
New research released in February showed a fourth COVID vaccine dose didn’t add much extra protection on top of a third dose. It looked as if doling out fourth doses to all Australians was unnecessary.
Unfortunately, the situation has changed again, and so has the risk calculation.
New South Wales Health Minister Brad Hazzard said last week Omicron sub-variant called BA.2 was on the rise in Australia, and NSW should expect the variant to overtake Omicron and for cases to more than double in the next six weeks. Experts expect BA.2 to become Australia’s dominant strain in the next few months.
Early estimates suggest BA.2 is between 25% and 40% more transmissible than Omicron (BA.1), and is already taking off in countries including Denmark, Sweden and the United Kingdom.
The Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) doesn’t yet recommend fourth doses for everyone, but they’re already available for severely immunocompromised Australians.
Coupled with new research detailing the quick waning of our third dose immunity, it’s likely the coming surge means we’ll need a fourth COVID vaccine as we hit winter.
But new research published this month in the New England Journal of Medicine shows immunity from third doses is waning quickly. Vaccine effectiveness against Omicron dropped to around 45% ten weeks after a Pfizer third dose.
The main reason for this is because Omicron has many mutations which mean it looks very different to the original strain, from which our vaccines are based.
Only a subset of the immune cells these vaccines generate can effectively tackle Omicron, which means our immunity wanes quicker. Specifically, we generate fewer “neutralising antibodies” that can tackle Omicron. These are a type of antibody important for protection against infection.
This is almost certainly the case for BA.2, as well, which shares similar mutations to Omicron but some different ones too. Research is only just beginning into BA.2 so we don’t yet know how effective our vaccines are against it. But it’s likely their effectiveness is similarly reduced as with Omicron BA.1.
But by Australian winter – normally the height of cold and flu season – most people will have had their third dose more than four months ago, leaving us at greater risk of infection. So it makes sense to boost our antibodies again.
One pre-print study, yet to be reviewed by other scientists, showed a fourth dose tops up your antibody response to the peak level provided by the third dose.
Though it doesn’t give additional protection, restoring antibodies to third-dose levels will be important as winter approaches and risk of virus transmission increases. But this of course must be weighed against the ethics of dispensing fourth doses when many people in developing countries haven’t had their first two doses.
It’s hard to tell how vulnerable we are
In 2021 health authorities broadly knew the population’s level of immunity against COVID. Authorities knew how many people had two vaccine doses at any one time and how well the vaccines worked against Delta, and there were very low rates of infection.
But now, millions of us have been infected, at different times, some with a third dose and some without. It’s also likely many of us have been infected without knowing it.
So it’s very hard for us to know the level of immunity the population has.
This makes estimating how vulnerable Australia is to BA.2 and future variants very difficult.
In this environment of uncertainty, allowing Australians to get a fourth dose would increase collective immunity and help us weather the rise of BA.2 during a winter where other cold and flu viruses are expected to make a comeback.
Too late for an Omicron-specific vaccine
Evidence suggests Omicron is good at evading the immunity we get from our current COVID vaccines.
This is because the variant has many mutations which means it looks very different to the original strain, from which our vaccines are based.
A vaccine tailored to Omicron would, in theory, provide better protection.
But the question is, how much better than a boost with current vaccines? Early evidence suggests not much.
And by the time an Omicron-specific vaccine is rolled out, BA.2 will likely already be dominant.
So how do we a tackle a virus adept at mutating and evading immunity?
These are vaccines targeting a part of the virus that’s required for infection but that doesn’t readily change (scientists call this “conserved”), meaning they’re more likely to work across different variants. These are in development.
It’s possible we’ll have a prototype for such a vaccine in the next couple of years.
Nasal sprays could be a game changer
The fact mRNA vaccines could achieve over 90% protection against the original strain of SARS-CoV-2 is exceptional, because it’s very challenging for a vaccine injected into your arm to ward off a respiratory virus.
Respiratory viruses replicate in the cells lining the airways. That begins in the nose and throat, and if infection progresses, down into the airways in the lungs.
The airways are at the interface of the body and the outside environment. Getting specialised immune cells from your bloodstream to the airways, particularly the nose and throat, is a big ask for an immune response initiated in your arm.
This is where intranasal vaccines and treatments come in. My team has helped develop an immune-stimulating nasal spray that’s entering phase 2 clinical trials for COVID and influenza.
This works by boosting innate immunity in the tissue lining your airways to attack the virus at the point of entry in the nose and throat.
The aim is to prevent the virus from replicating there and making its way deeper into the respiratory tract where it can cause severe lung disease. It also reduces the amount of virus shedding in the nose and throat which should reduce the risk of onward transmission.
Where to from here?
Managing COVID is becoming more complicated now, and it’s impossible to predict where we’ll be a few months from now. As new variants continue to arise, it’s very difficult to understand how immune we are.
Monitoring and characterising new variants is essential. As new variants emerge, we need to understand how infectious and severe they are, and then adapt our vaccination strategy. This type of surveillance is what we do for the flu every year.
It could take years, but as time goes on and our immunity continues to mature, hopefully COVID settles to become a more stable, predicable, milder disease that can be effectively managed with the help of a range of new variant-proof vaccines and treatments.
Nathan Bartlett consults to and has share options in ENA Respiratory. He has received funding from ENA Respiratory.
Foxes kill about 300 million native mammals, birds and reptiles each year, and can be found across 80% of mainland Australia, our devastating new research published today reveals.
This research, the first to quantify the national impact of foxes on Australian wildlife, also compares the results to similar studies on cats. And we found foxes and cats collectively kill 2.6 billion mammals, birds and reptiles every year.
This enormous death toll is one of the key reasons Australia’s biodiversity is suffering major declines. Cats and foxes, for example, have played a big role in most of Australia’s 34 mammal extinctions, including the desert rat-kangaroo which rapidly declined once foxes reached their region.
Australia must drastically scale up the management of both predators, to give native wildlife a fighting chance and to help prevent future extinctions.
Australia is home to 1.7 million foxes
European colonisers brought foxes (and cats) to Australia. From 1845, foxes were released into the wild in Victoria for the “sport” of hunting them on horseback with a pack of hounds.
Fox populations soon exploded, thanks to the deliberate introduction of rabbits and hares in the 1800s. Rabbits and hares are not only a food source for foxes, they also eat the vegetation that native animals need for food, habitat, and to hide from predators. They continue to boost fox numbers today.
Our study estimates there are now 1.7 million foxes in Australia, spread across 80% of the mainland and on 50 Australian islands. They’re largely absent from tropical northern Australia and Tasmania.
By comparison, cats occur over more than 99.9% of the country, including on far more islands.
Fox densities are highest in temperate mainland regions, including forests and farms, and near urban areas where food and shelter are abundant. The Victorian government estimates there are as many as 16 foxes per square kilometre in Melbourne.
Cats and foxes eat almost 2 million reptiles across Australia every day, such as the central netted dragon. Nicolas Rakotopare (Lerako.net)
What are foxes eating?
The 300 million native animals that foxes kill every year consists of:
reptiles: foxes kill 88 million reptiles each year, and all are native. They’ve been recorded killing 108 different species – or 11% of all Australian reptile species – including the tjakura (great desert skink) and loggerhead turtle
birds: foxes kill 111 million birds each year, and 93% of these are native. They’ve been recorded killing 128 species – or 18% of all Australian bird species – including the mallee-fowl and little penguin
mammals: foxes kill 368 million mammals each year, and 29% of these are native. They’ve been recorded killing 114 species, or 40% of all land mammal species and half of all threatened mammal species. This includes the mankarr (greater bilby), quenda (southern brown bandicoot) and warru (black-footed rock-wallaby).
Foxes and feral cats together kill 2.6 billion animals every year. Stobo-Wilson et al, Diversity and Distributions, 2022.
Foxes also kill another 259 million non-native invasive animals every year, predominately house mice and rabbits. They also kill livestock, such as lambs, piglets and chickens.
While rabbits and house mice form a major part of fox diets, there’s no evidence foxes (or cats) limit their numbers. Changes in rabbit and mice populations are largely driven by climate fluctuations.
Our findings are underpinned by modelling data assembled from almost 100 field studies. This included 49,458 fox poo and stomach samples, and fox density estimates at 437 locations.
Foxes are also known to eat bird and reptile eggs, and threaten the breeding success of many turtle species. However, we didn’t tally their impact on turtle eggs (or on fish, frogs or insects) because of insufficient data – they’re highly digestible and often hard to identify in fox poo.
Carrion (dead animals) account for an average of 10% of fox diets, but we excluded carrion in the estimated numbers of animals killed.
Fairy wrens and other birds that nest and feed near the ground are vulnerable to foxes and cats. Nicolas Rakotopare (Lerako.net)
Foxes and cats: a deadly combination
Although they eat many of the same species, foxes take larger prey than cats and have a bigger toll on kangaroos, wallabies and potoroos.
Cats eat smaller prey, so eat a lot more of them. Nationally, feral cats kill about five times more reptiles, two and a half times more birds and twice as many mammals than foxes.
In total, feral cats kill 1.5 billion animals every year (not including invertebrates and frogs). Pet cats kill another 500 million animals.
The impacts of both predators are concentrated in some regions more than others. And although cats kill more animals overall nationally, in some areas foxes take a greater toll.
This includes the Warren and Jarrah Forest in Western Australia, the Eyre and Yorke Penninsula in South Australia, across Victoria and in NSW’s Blue Mountains.
This is why foxes take a larger toll on forest animals such as possums and gliders, and kill over 1,000 animals per square kilometre each year in these areas.
Cats are widespread across Australia, while foxes are widespread everywhere except Tasmania and tropical northern Australia. Northern Territory Government
To understand and manage these threats, it’s essential to take the cumulative impacts of both introduced predators into account. Many species fall prey to both cats and foxes.
Each day across Australia their combined death toll includes 1.9 million reptiles, 1.4 million birds and 3.9 million mammals.
So what needs to change?
The only way to stem these losses, and prevent the extinction of many vulnerable species, is to step up targeted and integrated cat and fox management.
Foxes and cats kill 4 million mammals every day across Australia. The bridled nailtail wallaby was once common throughout eastern Australia, but foxes and cats (and habitat loss) pushed it close to extinction. Nicolas Rakotopare (Lerako.net)
Cat and fox eradication programs have had success in fenced areas and on islands. For example, cat eradication on Dirk Hartog Island is enabling many native animals to be reintroduced.
And long-term broad-scale management programs have enabled the recovery of threatened species in wider landscapes, such as the Bounceback Program helping yellow-footed rock wallabies and other wildlife in SA’s Flinders Ranges.
Our new research highlights the urgent need to increase investment for cat and fox management across Australia. Management will need to be large-scale and strategically coordinated as both species breed like rabbits, so to speak, and travel great distances.
This means patchy, or small-scale lethal programs can allow their numbers to quickly rebound.
We also need to protect and recover habitat for native animals. Evidence shows good habitat supports healthier native animal populations and gives them more places to hide from predators.
23 scientists contributed to the research described in this article. The research received funding from the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program through the Threatened Species Recovery Hub (which ended in Dec 2021). Jaana Dielenberg previously received funding from the Threatened Species Recovery Hub but does not currently work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article.
Brett Murphy receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He received funding from the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program through the Threatened Species Recovery Hub (which ended in Dec 2021). He is a member of the Australian Government’s Threatened Species Scientific Committee.
John Woinarski is the director of the Australian Wildlife Conservancy. The research received funding from the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program through the Threatened Species Recovery Hub (which ended in Dec 2021).
The research received funding from the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program through the Threatened Species Recovery Hub (which ended in Dec 2021).
Alyson Stobo-Wilson and Trish Fleming do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
