Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dylan McConnell, Senior Research Associate, Renewable Energy & Energy Systems Analyst, UNSW Sydney

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) this week released an update to its annual assessment of reliability, the so-called Electricity Statement of Opportunities. This has been reported as the market operator forecasting “power shortages”, or the network being “at risk of supply shortages”.

The market operator has certainly put up in lights its message that there’s an “urgent need for investment in generation, long-duration storage and transmission to achieve reliability requirements over the next decade”. Yet the reliability outlook has actually improved overall since AEMO’s previous statement last August.

At first pass, this seems counterintuitive. How can reliability be improving, yet still evidently cause for grave concern?

To interpret the report and statements fully, it’s important to understand how the analysis is prepared, and what is and isn’t included in the overall outlook.

Read more:
What’s a grid, anyway? Making sense of the complex beast that is Australia’s electricity network

The Statement of Opportunities

Every year, AEMO prepares a report that assesses the reliability of the National Electricity Market (NEM). Reliability is a measure of the power system’s ability to supply demand. A reliable power system has adequate resources – generation, demand response and transmission capacity – to supply customers.

In the NEM, the reliability of the system is reported in terms of “expected unserved energy”. This is essentially a measure of the expected amount of electricity not delivered to customers, as a result of inadequate capacity to meet the anticipated demand.

AEMO’s reliability assessment looks ahead ten years, to provide information to the electricity market more broadly on any potential gaps or shortfalls in supply that would put reliability at risk. This was intended to guide the private sector, by highlighting “opportunities” for new investment across the electricity system. Hence the report is named the Electricity Statement of Opportunities.

But, importantly, the assessment does not actually forecast a market response or any other intervention in power generation or transmission. It generally only looks at “committed projects” – those that are all but guaranteed to be completed.

As such, it provides an estimate of the expected unserved energy over the next decade, if (and only if) there is no further investment or response. A consequence of this is that a large amount of potential investment and future capacity is not included.

The update

AEMO’s updated report was prompted by a range of “material generation capacity changes” since the August statement. This includes delays to the Kurri Kurri gas-fired power plant and the Snowy 2.0 hydro project.

However, it includes the addition of 461 megawatts of battery storage and 1,326MW of wind developments that have reached “committed” status since August. It also includes the Waratah Super Battery, which will effectively unlock additional capacity in the transmission system.

This is why the reliability outlook has improved. There are now no “supply gaps” projected in any region of the NEM, which covers Australia’s southern and eastern states, until 2025-26, where previously there were.

Besides these committed projects, more than 2,000MW of battery capacity is “anticipated” to be available. But, as it has not yet met the formal commitment criteria, it has not been considered in AEMO’s assessment.

The latest report also doesn’t include capacity that will supported by the Victorian Renewable Energy Target or the NSW Electricity Infrastructure Roadmap.

Several transmission developments that are expected to significantly reduce projected reliability risks were also not included. One of these, the Victoria-New South Wales Interconnector West, received a significant boost just yesterday, with the Victorian government issuing orders to accelerate the project. Other schemes are still working their way through the regulatory process, and hence are also not yet included in AEMO’s statements.

So, while AEMO’s assessment projects supply gaps appearing from 2026 onwards, as various projects and other initiatives progress we can expect this outlook to continue to improve. This is, after all, how it’s supposed to work. The market operator highlights emerging gaps, and various actors respond to prevent those gaps becoming reality.

Emerging risks

This is certainly not to say everything is fine. There are some significant risks and challenges on the horizon.

The potential closure of Eraring power station in just two-and-a-half years is a key risk to reliability in NSW in particular. In the shorter term, a return to hot summers in 2023-24 could give the system its harshest test in years.

The delay of Snowy 2.0 may also have significant impacts on the reliability of the system. Unfortunately, AEMO’s update doesn’t provide much meaningful information on the implications of this situation.

AEMO’s report does not include the transmission projects required to realise the benefits of Snowy 2.0, so the impact of a delay is rather a moot point. It is reasonable to assume, however, that the promised 2 gigawatts of firm supply would have a considerable impact on the reliability outlook.

Read more:
Amid blackout scare stories, remember that a grid without power cuts is impossible… and expensive

As previously mentioned, there are plenty of projects – renewable, storage, transmission and demand response – that can mitigate these risks. But of course we have to actually deliver them. Supply-chain issues, skills shortages and community opposition are key challenges facing the delivery of new capacity.

At a federal level, the newly announced Capacity Investment Scheme may help bring more storage capacity online. The Rewiring the Nation plan is intended to bring forward important transmission projects. A bevy of state government programs and interventions will also help bring new projects online.

Supply shortages can be assured if nothing happens beyond what is assumed in the assessment. Things are of course happening – but we do have to get cracking.

Dylan McConnell’s current position is supported by the Race for 2030 CRC.

– ref. Australia’s energy market operator is worried about the grid’s reliability. But should it be? – https://theconversation.com/australias-energy-market-operator-is-worried-about-the-grids-reliability-but-should-it-be-200355

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Melinda Hildebrandt, Policy Fellow, Mitchell Institute, Victoria University

This is shaping up to be an enormously important year for higher education in Australia. The Albanese government is aiming to deliver a historic Universities Accord by December, to create a “visionary plan” for the sector over the next 10 to 30 years.

The accord is underpinned by a review, chaired by former NSW chief scientist Mary O’Kane. On Wednesday, O’Kane launched a discussion paper, calling on stakeholders to come forward with “big ideas” and imploring them to be brave.

What are some of the key issues the accord will need to address?

The discussion paper

O’Kane has noted the “very broad” nature of the accord’s terms of reference. The discussion paper asks no fewer than 49 questions.

This includes questions about how the sector can deliver on national ambitions for skills, jobs and industry-led research. Questions are also asked about systemic problems in vocational education and training and domestic funding shortfalls.

It also raises concerns about the low rates of some groups enrolling in universities, casualisation of the academic workforce, rising costs and how to attract a more diverse range of international students to study in Australia.

Submissions are due back by April 11, with an interim report expected in June.

Read more:
The universities accord could see the most significant changes to Australian unis in a generation

Job-ready Graduates

One of the biggest tasks of the accord is proposing models to replace the controversial Job-ready Graduates Package.

Job-ready Graduates was introduced by the Morrison government in 2021. It changed subsidy rates so some courses perceived to have better job outcomes (such as teaching, nursing and maths) received greater government support. Students in courses such as humanities ended up with increased fees.

The policy has been criticised for being ineffective. There is little evidence it is addressing skills needs.

Meanwhile, graduates in many disciplines such as humanities and business, have better employment outcomes than priority courses like science.

There are also perverse incentives for universities to enrol more students in the courses that are being discouraged.

This is because while there are caps on the government-funded contribution, the amount universities receive through student loans remains uncapped. About 90% of funding for courses like arts degrees comes from student loans, meaning universities are encouraged to enrol as many students as they can.

Addressing the inconsistencies created by Job-ready Graduates is a major question for the accord. Though it is unclear what model might replace it, students and universities will be watching it with great interest.

Read more:
University fees are poised to change – a new system needs to consider how much courses cost and what graduates can earn

The importance of a skilled workforce

The discussion paper highlights the role of universities in supplying a skilled workforce to support economic growth.

The last major review into the higher education sector in 2008, set a target of 40% of young people with a university-level qualification by 2020. This target has been met.

But the growth in people going to university has come at the expense of TAFEs. In 1986, there were roughly the same number of young people aged 15 to 24 enrolled at vocational education institutions as there were at universities. By 2021, the split was 76% university and 24% vocational education and training.

The mixture of courses is important because about 40% of future jobs growth are in occupations aligned to courses in the vocational education sector. For example, some of the strongest job growth will be in aged care and child care.

The accord has been asked to find ways to have better connections with the vocational sector. This is a particularly difficult task as the vocational education sector is underfunded and in need of reform.

Mitchell Institute research show universities receive almost twice the amount of revenue per domestic students as a vocational institution, such as a TAFE.

While meeting skills needs is a key priority of the accord, creating a cohesive tertiary education system is a major reform agenda that has so far proven elusive.

International education (the elephant in the room)

Revenue from international students has been fundamental to the strength of the university sector over the past two decades.

Before the pandemic, Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed international student revenue grew to 11 times the 2001 level. Enrolments have grown by about four times over the same period.

It is difficult to overstate how important this revenue stream has become. Universities receive two to three times the funding amount for an international student than for a domestic student. This extra funding helps subsidise other activities, particularly research.

But this revenue is concentrated in certain (more prestigious) universities. Many of the smaller and regional universities – with higher levels of disadvantaged students – miss out on this important revenue stream.

With limited opportunities for more government funds, future policies around international education – and how this resource is shared – will be critical for the university sector.

Read more:
International students are returning to Australia, but they are mostly going to more prestigious universities

A huge task

So, the accord has a huge task. It must tackle complex and diverse issues, from domestic student funding to the need for clearer links to vocational education, while making the best use of funds from international student fees.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The Universities Accord will plan for the next 30 years: what big issues must it address? – https://theconversation.com/the-universities-accord-will-plan-for-the-next-30-years-what-big-issues-must-it-address-200367

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Kendall, PhD Candidate in Law, The University of Queensland

Australia is facing an unprecedented threat of espionage and foreign interference. According to ASIO chief Mike Burgess in his annual threat assessment this week,

More Australians are being targeted for espionage and foreign interference than at any time in Australia’s history.

To drive home just how serious the threat is, Burgess also said ASIO had identified a “hive of spies” seeking to steal sensitive information in the past year. This major spy network was disrupted and the spies involved were removed from the country.

But why weren’t the spies prosecuted? Australia has some of the most robust counter-espionage laws in the world, so why aren’t they being used more often to target actual incidents when they happen?

The espionage threat

Burgess said in his threat assessment that intelligence and government officials are no longer the only ones being targeted.

Foreign spies from multiple nations are seeking to glean information from judicial figures, journalists, academics, bank workers, doctors, police, defence contractors, and former members of the defence force. They do this by fostering relationships with these people, which they can later try to exploit.

Foreign spies today want more than just intelligence and defence information, too. For example, Burgess said they also want information on

our defence capabilities, government decision-making, political parties, foreign policy, critical infrastructure, space technologies, academic and think tank research, medical advances, key export industries and personal information, especially bulk data.

No matter who or what is being targeted, espionage is extremely damaging. It can undermine our security, sovereignty, economy, democracy and social fabric.

Read more:
Why Australia’s tough national security laws cannot stop foreign interference in our elections

The legal response to espionage

In 2018, the Coalition government made targeting the growing threat of espionage and foreign interference a top priority, pushing through a complete overhaul of the country’s security laws.

It replaced the four existing espionage offences with a complex scheme of 27 different offences, with penalties of up to life in prison. It also introduced nine new crimes of foreign interference. These offences apply both within and outside Australia.

This suite of new laws has been used sparingly to date. No one has been charged with an espionage offence and only one person has been charged with a foreign interference offence.

The laws have also been criticised as another example of hyper-legislation, which refers to the large number of laws. Additionally, concerns have been raised that the laws are overly broad and have the potential to criminalise innocent conduct.

Read more:
Australia has enacted 82 anti-terror laws since 2001. But tough laws alone can’t eliminate terrorism

The aim of the reforms, the government maintained, was to modernise our espionage laws so they would be able to capture the type of spying our adversaries engage in today. This includes spying that occurs online – cyber espionage.

For example, one of the espionage offences makes it a crime for a person to deal with national security or classified information where this will be communicated to a foreign government. The person must also intend for their conduct to prejudice Australia’s national security or provide an advantage to the national security of another country.

This offence would certainly capture the conduct of the hive of spies described by Burgess, which was ultimately removed from Australia.

So why weren’t the spies prosecuted?

While the espionage offences are sufficient to target those engaging in modern espionage, prosecuting spies is challenging in practice. Here are four potential reasons why:

1) Identifying the spy

Traditionally, espionage is a covert endeavour. As such, it can be difficult to identify who the spy actually is. This is especially so if the espionage occurs online, as foreign spies can use anonymising technologies to hide their identity. If spies can’t be identified, they can’t be prosecuted.

This apparently wasn’t an issue in the case of the hive of spies, as ASIO had identified who was involved.

2) Extraditing the spy

If the foreign spy engaged in cyber espionage, they could have done so from the comfort of their home country. If this person was identified, they would then have to be extradited back to Australia to face prosecution. This can be a challenging process that does not always succeed.

Because the hive of spies was located in Australia, extradition was not an issue.

3) Collecting evidence

To prosecute a foreign spy for a specific crime, evidence must be collected that proves each element of the offence beyond a reasonable doubt. Sometimes, this evidence may be difficult to obtain – for example, in cases where data is located on foreign servers. Other times, prosecutors might not think their evidence is sufficient to meet the threshold of “beyond a reasonable doubt”.

We don’t know what kind of evidence was available to prove the hive of spies committed an espionage offence, so it is possible this influenced the decision not to prosecute.

4) Disclosing national security information

Because espionage offences are concerned with national security, this could require disclosure of the specific information a foreign spy was trying to obtain. And to prove the spy “intended to prejudice Australia’s national security”, a court might need to hear about intelligence gathered by ASIO through surveillance. This could reveal ASIO’s methods of intelligence collection.

Disclosing information like this in court – a public forum – could have serious consequences for our national security.

In fact, Burgess warned this week foreign spies are “seeking to use litigation as an intelligence collection tool”. He further cautioned

there is a narrow set of circumstances where particularly sensitive information cannot be publicly disclosed in parliament, court or the media.

However, the National Security Information Act can be used to protect national security information by ensuring it is not disclosed to the defendant or revealed in open court.

In fact, this law was even used – controversially – to conduct an entirely secret trial of a former Australian spy, Witness J.

Because of this, this probably wasn’t a reason why the hive of spies was not prosecuted.

Ultimately, it’s not possible to say exactly why suspected espionage cases are not pursued. Diplomatic considerations may play a role in some cases, as well as limitations in how the espionage offences operate in practice.

Because of these limitations, additional measures are necessary to combat the growing threat of espionage. Not only does this include adequate cyber security measures, it requires every Australian to be aware of what the threat can look like and ensure they do not hand over information sought by foreign actors.

Sarah Kendall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Amid warnings of ‘spy hives’, why isn’t Australia using its tough counter-espionage laws more? – https://theconversation.com/amid-warnings-of-spy-hives-why-isnt-australia-using-its-tough-counter-espionage-laws-more-200440

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kyle J.D. Mulrooney, Senior Lecturer in Criminology, Co-director of the Centre for Rural Criminology, University of New England

Last week, it was reported that 700 sheep with an estimated value of $140,000, including nearly 200 valuable merino ewes, were stolen from a Victorian property in a highly sophisticated rural crime operation. Such large-scale rural theft is increasingly common.

Rural crime is not isolated to certain states. Rather, stock theft is an Australian problem. Evidence from these large-scale thefts shows that offenders use “corridors” across state borders to move stolen rural property and livestock great distances.

Surveys conducted in Victoria and New South Wales found 70% and 80% of farmers had experienced some type of farm crime in their lifetime, and experienced this victimisation repeatedly.

While farmers experience a variety of crimes, including trespass and illegal shooting on their properties, acquisitive crime – stock theft in particular – is one of the most common crimes faced by farmers.

The impact of “farm crime” is significant. Not only is the farming sector important to the Australian economy, but such crimes can have devastating financial, psychological and physical impacts on farmers, rural landowners and communities.

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Crime is rife on farms, yet reporting remains stubbornly low. Here’s how new initiatives are making progress

Why does it happen?

The high rates of theft in farming communities can be explained by unique geographic and cultural factors influencing the incidence and response to crime.

Let’s consider geography in more detail. Rational choice theory suggests offenders make decisions to commit crimes by weighing the risks and rewards. The goal of crime prevention then is to increase risks and lower rewards.

In a busy city, for example, crime prevention might include tools such as locks, motion lights or CCTV, while the many people going about their business may deter criminals simply by being present.

The presence of formal guardians, such as the police or security guards, may serve to deter crime too. The urban environment can also be designed and built in such a way as to discourage crime by limiting hiding places, exit points and escape routes.

The rural environment flips all of this on its head. It is often not possible to implement traditional crime prevention tools given the vast amount of wide-open space, nor are locks or gates always practical on a busy working farm.

The low population density means there are very few “eyes in the paddock” to witness and deter crime. A formal police presence is even more sparse, with slower response times than in urban areas.

The environment itself is also less conducive to crime prevention through evironmental design due to limited and spread-out infrastructure combined with a myriad of access points.

When we add all of this together, the risk-reward calculation for committing crimes such as stock theft in rural areas is often very favourable to offenders.

What can we do about it?

Innovations in policing and agricultural technology appear to offer some promising progress to combat farm crime.

The NSW Police have a dedicated Rural Crime Prevention Team. It’s comprised of officers with cultural and practical knowledge of rural industry and the necessary training, skills and expertise to deal with farm crime.

This team has deployed innovative techniques to fight rural crime, and their efforts have contributed to increases in satisfaction with the police and, most importantly, in the reporting of rural crime by farmers.

Despite this, police are still operating in an environment that presents serious difficulties in preventing, investigating and clearing farm crime.

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Illegal hunters are a bigger problem on farms than animal activists – so why aren’t we talking about that?

There are two key issues at work. The first is that farmers may check on stock only intermittently, and so be unaware of a theft for some time. The second is difficulty in tracking and identifying stolen stock.

New technology offers some solutions here. The Centre for Rural Criminology (UNE) staged a mock theft of livestock, with a live police intervention, to evaluate the ability of a smart animal ear tag to combat stock theft. The results were very promising.

Using the movement and location data provided by the tag, the farmers were alerted to the stock theft within minutes of the thieves entering the paddock. This enabled a rapid and effective response and recovery by the police.

Another new technology applies facial recognition to stock by drawing on small variations in the shape and patterns of a their muzzle, which are as distinct as a human fingerprint.

Farmers are able to capture photos of livestock using a smartphone or tablet, then upload this to an AI-powered cloud platform to identify animals. Ideally, law enforcement could use this image recognition technology to identify stolen cattle and return them to their owners.

The theft of stock is a serious and growing problem in Australia. Large-scale and sophisticated thefts are being reported with increasing frequency and farmers, rural communities and the Australian economy suffer from this.

Dedicated policing efforts in combination with new agricultural technologies may increase the risks of committing farm crimes and turn the tables on the offenders.

The mock-theft research trial conducted by the Centre for Rural Criminology discussed in this article was funded, in part, by Ceres Tag. Kyle Mulrooney and Alistair Harkness are co-directors of the Centre for Rural Criminology at the University of New England.

– ref. As livestock theft becomes a growing problem in rural Australia, new technologies offer hope – https://theconversation.com/as-livestock-theft-becomes-a-growing-problem-in-rural-australia-new-technologies-offer-hope-200251

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Frank Brennan has been involved over decades in the big debates in Indigenous affairs. A Jesuit priest and an academic expert on the constitution, Brennan has advocated for recognising First Nations peoples in that document.

But he has concerns about the breadth of Anthony Albanese’s proposed referendum question, arguing its reference to the Voice making representations to executive government raises the prospect of many legal challenges. This issue of the potential for legal challenges is one that divides legal experts, with a number of authorities maintaining there is no problem.

In this podcast, Brennan elaborates on why he believes the referendum question should be reworded and the form he thinks the question should take.

Anthony Albanese’s proposed wording is:

“There shall be a body, to be called the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice.

“The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice may make representations to Parliament and the Executive government on matters relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples.

“The Parliament shall, subject to this Constitution, have power to make laws with respect to the composition, functions, powers and procedures of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice.”

Frank Brennan’s suggested wording is:

“There shall be an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice with such structure and functions as the Parliament deems necessary to facilitate consultation prior to the making of special laws with respect to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, and with such other functions as the Parliament determines.”

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Frank Brennan on rewording Voice question – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-frank-brennan-on-rewording-voice-question-200442

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Belinda Ferrari, Professor of Microbiology, UNSW Sydney

Robotic rovers are currently exploring the surface of Mars. Part of a rover’s mission is to survey the planet for signs of life. There might be nothing to find – but what if there is, and the rovers just can’t “see” it?

New research published today in Nature Communications suggests the rovers’ current equipment might not actually be up to the task of finding evidence of life.

As an extreme environment microbiologist, the challenges of searching for life where it seems near-impossible are familiar to me.

In astrobiology, we study the diversity of life in sites on Earth with environmental or physical features that resemble regions already described on Mars. We call these terrestrial environments “Mars analogue” sites.

Limits of detection

The new research, led by Armando Azua-Bustos at the Center for Astrobiology in Madrid, tested the sophisticated instruments currently in use by NASA’s Curiosity and Perseverance rovers – as well as some newer lab equipment planned for future analysis – in the Mars analogue of the Atacama Desert.

Azua-Bustos and colleagues found the rovers’ testbed equipment – tools for analysing samples in the field – had limited ability to detect the traces of life we might expect to find on the red planet. They were able to detect the mineral components of the samples, but were not always able to detect organic molecules.

In my team’s case, our Mars analogue sites are the cold and hyper-arid deserts of the Dry Valleys and Windmill Islands in Antarctica.

In both of these sites, life exists despite extreme pressures. Finding evidence of life is challenging, given the harsh conditions and the scarcity of microbial life present.

First, we must define the biological and physical boundaries of life existing (and being detected) in analogue “extreme” environments. Then we need to develop tools to identify the “biosignatures” for life. These include organic molecules like lipids, nucleic acids and proteins. Finally, we determine how sensitive tools need to be to detect those biosignatures, on Earth and also Mars. This tells us the limits of our detection.

Read more:
Perseverance: the Mars rover searching for ancient life, and the Aussie scientists who helped build it

The search for a dark microbiome

In my field of extreme microbiology, “microbial dark matter” is when the majority of microscopic organisms in a sample have not been isolated and/or characterised. To identify them, we require next-generation sequencing need to define. Azua-Bustos’s team go one step further, proposing a “dark microbiome” which contains potentially relic, extinct Earth species.

Azua-Bustos’s team found sophisticated laboratory techniques could detect a dark microbiome in the Atacama Desert’s Martian-like hyper-arid soil samples. However, the rovers’ current equipment wouldn’t be able to detect it on Mars.

In samples with such scarce biomass, we use highly sensitive laboratory methods to detect microbial life, including gene sequencing and visualising cells using microscopic analysis. Prototypes for genome sequencing in the field are being developed, but they do not have the sensitivity needed for low biomass samples – yet.

Read more:
There is water on Mars, but what does this mean for life?

Different planet, different rules

The search for life on other planets also relies on our understanding of what life would need to exist, with the simplest list being energy, carbon and liquid water.

On Earth, most organisms use photosynthesis to harness energy from sunlight. This process requires water, which is almost totally unavailable in dry desert environments like Antarctica and the Atacama Desert – and, most likely, Mars. We think a process we dubbed “atmospheric chemosynthesis” could be filling this gap.

My team first discovered atmospheric chemosynthesis in the cold desert soils of Antarctica. In this overlooked metabolic process, bacteria literally “live on thin air” by consuming trace levels of hydrogen and carbon monoxide gas from the atmosphere.

We think dry desert microbiomes may rely on this process for energy as well as water, which is a byproduct of the process. Ecosystems like the ones we’ve found in Antarctica now offer one of the most promising ecological models in the search for Martian life.

We now believe there is potential for life in the ice-cemented subsurface of Mars. My team – alongside collaborators at NASA and the University of Pretoria – plan to investigate this in Antarctica’s University Valley, by defining the environmental limits to energy, metabolic water and carbon production via trace gas consumption.

Read more:
Discovery of microbe-rich groundwater in Antarctica guides search for life in space

We won’t find what we can’t define

Our new knowledge of target biosignatures and the level of sensitivity needed to detect them will be critical when designing or optimising future instrumentation to be deployed on missions aimed at finding life.

The goal of future missions to Mars, including the Icebreaker Life mission planned for 2026, is to search for evidence of life. The Icebreaker Life will sample ice-cemented ground, similar to Antarctic dry permafrost, and if it detects signs of life, a Mars Sample Return mission would be a high priority.

Returning samples to Earth for laboratory analysis is risky. As we found with our Antarctic soil samples, challenges can include contamination, preservation of cold temperatures during transport, and the need for specialist quarantine laboratories, to analyse samples without destroying them.

But as Asua-Bustos suggests, bringing samples to Earth for detailed lab analyses may be the only sure way to detect – or rule out – the presence (or past presence) of life.

Belinda Ferrari receives funding from the Australian Research Council. While not directly related to this article her previous funding has led to new research questions on the habitability of Mars.

– ref. There could be alien life on Mars, but will our rovers be able to find it? – https://theconversation.com/there-could-be-alien-life-on-mars-but-will-our-rovers-be-able-to-find-it-200338

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Louise Wright, Practice Professor of Architecture, Monash University

Our cities have altered their original landscapes so greatly that their natural systems are profoundly compromised. These systems – such as swamps, rivers, creeks, aquifers and bushland corridors – need more space to function properly. Sometimes they assert their underlying presence through land subsidence, floods and fires. As Margaret Cook wrote in her history of Brisbane floods, the Brisbane River is “a river with a city problem”.

In Australia, Melbourne in particular has been hugely altered. Historian James Boyce wrote:

Of all Australia’s major cities the natural environment of Melbourne before British settlement is perhaps the most difficult now to imagine. This is in part a product of the city’s size and flat topography, but it also reflects the extent to which the region was dominated by swamps and grasslands – the two ecosystems that were most comprehensively transformed by the conquest.

In response to climate change threats, cities around the world are making space to restore natural systems such as creeks, rivers, wetlands and vegetation on a larger scale. But this is an enormous task. These systems have been concreted, filled in or built over since the industrial revolution.

Read more:
Brisbane floods: pondering the wisdom of placing our major galleries, libraries and theatres on the banks of a flood-prone river

Sometimes ecosystems are restored

One example of restoration is in Elsternwick, a suburb of southeast Melbourne. Here an ephemeral wetland behind the coastal dunes, on the traditional lands of the Yaluk-ut Weelam, Boon Wurrung clan of the Kulin Nation, was drained and filled. It became a parkland, trotting track and then golf course. Now a constructed wetland is transforming Yalukit Willam Nature Reserve (formerly Elsternwick Park) into a modified version of its former self.

There are many such projects, but still not nearly enough. They tend to be site-specific and isolated, lacking the connection to larger landscape-scale systems so crucial to their proper functioning. For instance, while water from the Elster Creek now flows “naturally” through a chain of ponds in the former Elsternwick golf course, for most of its length the creek is still a channel under and above ground.

When more space needs to be reserved for public benefit and use, the government can compulsorily acquire it through legislation, such as the Land Acquisition and Compensation Act 1986 (Vic), and through planning schemes, via an instrument called a public acquisition overlay.

The overlay was used in Victoria to remove the suburb of Summerland on Phillip Island over 25 years to conserve and restore habitat for penguins.

Similarly, housing in high fire risk areas was compulsorily acquired to reforest land in the Dandenong Ranges east of Melbourne in the 1970-80s. More recently in New South Wales this approach is being used to move housing away from flood zones in Lismore and the Northern Rivers.

Read more:
‘I simply haven’t got it in me to do it again’: imagining a new heart for flood-stricken Lismore

More often natural systems lose contest for space

Most commonly, such mechanisms are used to make space for roads and other infrastructure. A current example is in the Melbourne suburb of Bulleen, just 50 metres from the Birrarung (Yarra River). Around 80 industrial buildings are making way for the Manningham Road Interchange of the North East Link project.

Meanwhile, the natural systems of the Birrarung struggle for enough space.

The story of the dispossession and transformation of the river corridor along the bends, floodplains and billabongs known as Banyule-Bulleen Flats is repeated across Australia. This important cultural place of rich food and resources for the Wurndjeri Woi Wurrung was capable of sustaining up to 500 people. It was cleared, farmed and grazed from the mid-1880s.

Piecemeal development has intensified the use of this once cheap, low-lying, flat land. This 2km by 1km parcel of land has been given over to an 18-hole golf course, 27-house estate, six sporting ovals, six soccer pitches, six clay tennis courts, three indoor basketball courts, an archery field, parking across multiple sites for at least 600 cars, a large social club with restaurant, futsal court and convention rooms, major electrical pylons, the large scar of a former drive-in cinema, a web of paths, fences, barriers, toilets, clubrooms, playgrounds and, until recently, an industrial estate.

Very soon, there will be a six-lane tunnel. The land being used for its construction is the subject of “future development potential”.

Read more:
Bell frogs, dugong bones and giant cauliflowers: water stories come to life at Green Square

All this human activity is located there largely due to floodplains not being valued. Yet this area contains the last significant remnants of a network of billabongs and riparian woodlands with centuries-old river red gums.

How can urban plans help restore natural systems?

Planning schemes are meant to recognise the environmental and cultural value of land. They regulate the use of land, what can be built there, and how we should go about it.

However, each intervention is mostly assessed at the scale of the parcel of land. The process has little to do with the land’s role in a wider, underlying and connected ecological structure.

We need an alternative urban plan that foregrounds and provides space for ecosystem regeneration. New and robust planning tools and governance processes are required if we acknowledge we cannot continue to urbanise areas of ecological significance and should repair and strengthen others.

Read more:
Buried under colonial concrete, Botany Bay has even been robbed of its botany

Yes, we have detailed and careful regulations and controls for protection of vegetation, significant landscapes, land subject to flooding, and so on. But the fact is most buildings and development are not compatible with healthy natural systems that support the complex web of symbiotic relationships between soil, plants, animals and an array of other organisms.

We need urban plans that consolidate space for natural systems in our cities. This process will require long-term frameworks that strategically return land to enable connected ecological systems to function over large territories. To free up this space, urban density will have to increase in other areas through more intensive use of existing buildings and infrastructure.

This alternative approach will improve the quality and sustainability of our future cities.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What if urban plans gave natural systems the space to recover from the cities built over them? It can be done – https://theconversation.com/what-if-urban-plans-gave-natural-systems-the-space-to-recover-from-the-cities-built-over-them-it-can-be-done-199388

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chari Larsson, Senior Lecturer of art history, Griffith University

Review: Pop Masters: Art from the Mugrabi Collection, New York, HOTA Gallery.

Drawn from the private collection of Jose Mugrabi, Pop Masters: Art from the Mugrabi Collection is the first international exhibition presented by HOTA.

It is the strongest signal yet of HOTA’s commitment to investing in a strong and vibrant visual arts community.

The New York-based Mugrabis have been long-term investors in pop art, and the family has the largest Warhol collection outside the Andy Warhol Museum in Pittsburgh.

Emerging in the late 1950s and ‘60s, pop was viewed as a reaction against the lofty ideals of high modernist abstraction practised by artists such as Jackson Pollock and Willem de Kooning.

Instead, pop art embraced the boom in postwar consumer culture, blurring the conventional hierarchies between high and low art.

Australian audiences have happily displayed an appetite and enthusiasm for major pop art exhibitions. QAGOMA’s Andy Warhol in 2008 and the National Gallery of Victoria’s Basquiat Haring: Crossing Lines in 2019 immediately spring to mind.

Here, curators Tracy Cooper-Lavery and Bradley Vincent have pursued a very different curatorial strategy. As opposed to the deep-dive art-historical investigation, this exhibition advances an argument for the ongoing influence of pop art on contemporary artists today.

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‘Nothing quite prepares you for the impact of this exhibition’: Haring Basquiat at the NGV

Stars of the movement

Organised roughly chronologically, Pop Masters traces six generations of pop art.

The exhibition turns on a tripartite axis of Warhol, Keith Haring and Jean-Paul Basquiat.

Haring and Basquiat emerged from the streets as graffiti artists, and rose to prominence in the 1980s New York East Village. Both had brief but incredibly productive careers, cut short by HIV-related illness (Haring) and drug overdose (Basquiat).

In 2017, Basquiat reached the dizzying US$100-million-plus club.

Of the three practitioners, it is Warhol’s name that reverberates well beyond the art world. The exhibition serves as an excellent entry point to understand his enduring influence and legacy.

On display are examples of Warhol’s signature style: photographic silkscreen printing.

Warhol famously appropriated images from media culture. He would reproduce the images using silk screens, placing traditional artistic ideas of skill and creativity under pressure.

Art historians and critics remain divided on the topic of how exactly to read Warhol’s work.

For some, Warhol’s practice deliberately celebrated the vacuity of celebrity and consumer culture. For these critics, there is no point in looking for a “deeper” or “hidden” meaning: it simply does not exist.

Warhol himself certainly encouraged this point of view:

If you want to know all about Andy Warhol, just look at the surface of my paintings and films and me, and there I am. There’s nothing behind it.

The alternative argument is advanced by the conviction that Warhol’s practice is deeply political. As opposed to mere surfaces, Warhol’s screenprints are empathetic and urgent responses to the political and social upheavals of the 1960s.

The inclusion of Warhol’s Sixteen Jackies (1964) would support this account: Warhol is mining media images of the First Lady’s grief in the wake of President Kennedy’s assassination.

The debate has never really been settled. As this exhibition would suggest, perhaps Warhol can be both: deeply serious and superficial; political and apolitical; surface and depth.

The following generations

The curators’ underlying argument for the ongoing relevance of pop is bolstered by the inclusion of exciting and diverse contemporary practitioners who are working through the legacies of Haring and Basquiat.

One of the defining characteristics of pop art is the tension between the ordinary and the specialness of the art object.

This tension comes to the fore in Basquiat’s Untitled (Football Helmet) (1981-84). Basquiat painted the football helmet and pasted cuttings of his own hair onto its surface, giving it a comical, whimsical appearance.

Basquiat gave it as a gift to Warhol, reinforcing the collaborative connection shared by the three artists.

Haring fans are treated to an enormously scaled Untitled (1981) featuring his iconic symbol, the dancing dog. Skipping and gyrating across the canvas, the figures exude trademark Haring: simplified line executed extremely rapidly.

Today, New York-based Katherine Bernhardt establishes a direct visual lineage with Basquiat with her use of spray paint applied directly to the painting’s surface.

Bernhardt works at an enormous scale and includes bananas and everyday objects such as Windex bottles and toothbrushes in a wryly mischievous nod to the still life painting tradition.

Bernhardt is fascinated with how objects might be read as a visual language akin to reading the alphabet. Bernhardt’s Windex bottles extend Haring’s visual symbolism such as his dog and the radiant baby.

Another welcome inclusion is Ghana-born and based Kwesi Botchway. Primarily a portrait painter, Botchway draws on art’s history of portraiture to document contemporary Ghanaian life.

Botchway’s painting documents the global outpouring of anger and solidarity that followed in the wake of the death of George Floyd in 2020.

By placing Botchway’s blacklivesmatter (Divine Protesting) (2020) in dialogue with Basquiat, we are reminded Basquiat’s practice was deeply political: one of his preoccupations was the representation of race and the African American diasporic communities.

The curatorial argument is clear: pop art is utterly contemporary.

Pop Masters: Art from the Mugrabi Collection New York is at HOTA Gallery, Gold Coast, until June 4.

Chari Larsson no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.

– ref. Did pop art have its heyday in the 1960s? Perhaps. But it is also utterly contemporary – https://theconversation.com/did-pop-art-have-its-heyday-in-the-1960s-perhaps-but-it-is-also-utterly-contemporary-198392

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kathy Boschen, Research Associate, Casual Academic, PhD Candidate, Flinders University

Official estimates predict that by 2032, more than one million Australians will be supported by the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS).

Much of the focus on the NDIS has been with how much it will cost, how people can get on it and how they can best spend the funds allocated in their plans. But no attention has so far been placed on the end-of-life needs of this highly marginalised population. People with psychosocial disabilities (such as schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, borderline personality disorder or major depressive disorders) and life-limiting diagnoses are particularly vulnerable.

The official Responsibilities of the NDIS and other service systems, agreed to by state and federal governments in 2015, make it clear the NDIS does not fund palliative care.

Although there is a commitment to maintain supports alongside palliative care, the National Disability Insurance Agency (which administers the NDIS) says it will typically stop funding supports once a person enters hospital. So, once a palliative NDIS participant enters hospital, hospice or residential aged care they can lose contact with the support workers they’ve come to trust and rely on.

Gaps between systems

The NDIS Act states:

People with disability and their families and carers should have certainty that people with disability will receive the care and support they need over their lifetime.

NDIS Workers can often be an integral part of a participant’s life where trusting and therapeutic relationships are developed and maintained. Indeed, in some circumstances NDIS workers are the only other people that a participant with psychosocial disabilities is connected to. But the gaps between systems mean NDIS participants don’t have the support of their regular NDIS workers at the end of their lives.

This week, I presented our review of published research, government websites and publications concerning NDIS participants with psychosocial disability and life-limiting diagnoses (including cancer, kidney disease, severe heart failure and severe lung diseases).

Unfortunately, we could not find published frameworks or pathways to help NDIS participants, families, carers, workers and clinicians understand where the NDIS and other service systems intersect. The gaps between services run counter to the NDIS Act, which says:

The interactions of people with disability with the NDIS and other service systems should be as seamless as possible, where integrated planning and coordinated supports, referrals and transitions are promoted, supported by a no wrong door approach.

A “no-wrong-door approach” means NDIS participants should be able to ask any professional supporting them for help. Regardless of the system that professional sits in – be it health, NDIS or mental health – they should refer and assist participants in getting the right support from the right system. Put simply, a participant should not need to ask for help more than once.

Read more:
How to improve the NDIS for people who have an intellectual disability as well as a mental illness

The difference between palliative and end-of-life care

There is often confusion about the NDIS and disabling health conditions as well as the difference between palliative and end-of-life care.

Palliative care can be provided at any stage of a person’s life-limiting illness, sometimes for years, whereas end-of-life care is provided in the final weeks of life.

Some life-limiting conditions, such as motor neurone disease, receive excellent support from the NDIS. Other conditions are listed as likely to meet the disability requirements to enter the scheme.

Our review found people with severe and persistent mental illnesses die up to 20 years sooner than average. Due to past negative experiences they are often disconnected from mainstream service support.

This can result in extremely late presentations to hospital, when pain or symptoms are overwhelming, and there are missed opportunities to provide palliative care.

Our review also found people with mental illnesses report that often hospital staff do not know how to support them and they experience significant discrimination and stigma in hospital and end-of-life settings. This can lead to bleak and inequitable death and dying experiences.

Read more:
Labor vows to tackle the NDIS crisis – what’s needed is more autonomy for people with disability

Workers need guidance too

There is work underway to define the essential elements of high quality end-of-life care. These elements include teamwork, identifying triggers for end-of-life care, training, support and responding to concerns. But there is no clear guidance about delivering this essential support to NDIS participants.

The next step to ensuring all Australians with disability can be well supported once they develop a life-limiting illness, will be for governments to agree on a comprehensive NDIS palliative care framework and provide training for anyone working with NDIS participants with psychosocial or life-limiting disability to support it.

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‘It’s shown me how independent I can be’ – housing designed for people with disabilities reduces the help needed

PhD Candidate, Research Associate, Casual Academic
Flinders University

Formerly,
– A Senior Compliance Officer for the NDIS Quality and Safeguards Commission; and
– An AAT Advisor for the National Disability Insurance Agency – Administrative Appeals Tribunal Team, and
– A National Disability Insurance Agency Subject Matter Expert – Mental Heath Access.

– ref. The NDIS promises lifelong support – but what about end-of-life support for people with disability? – https://theconversation.com/the-ndis-promises-lifelong-support-but-what-about-end-of-life-support-for-people-with-disability-199990

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Liz Giuffre, Senior Lecturer in Communication, University of Technology Sydney

“Shoey” is Australian slang for having a celebratory drink out of a shoe. Usually the beverage is alcoholic and the celebration follows a sweaty quest to victory. The shoey has become a popular part of some sports and music festival cultures.

As a cultural phenomenon, the shoey represents overcoming adversity – literally drinking out of the vessels that got you over the line. Newly minted Grammy and BRIT award winner Harry Styles did his first Australian concert – and we assume his first shoey – in Perth this week. Here’s the, um, footage (pun intended, sorry).

One of the most famous supporters of the shoey is racing driver Daniel Ricciardo – someone for whom Styles has shown his own fandom. Footballers, surfers, musicians and various celebrities have also had a go.

Usually, it’s a cultural practice undertaken by men, although marathon runner Des Lindon, inspired by Ricciardo, also celebrated in this way, as did champion golfer Hannah Green.

Read more:
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Although Australians have claimed the “shoey”, we are not its only practitioners.

Drinking from boots, or even delicate high heels, is said to have started in Europe. There are US and Russian influences too, including drinking out of silk ballet flats.

Culture of defiance

The contemporary Aussie shoey is really about defiance – claiming victory against the odds.

It’s a type of attitude many different types of Australians have tapped into over generations, a classic trait of the “little battler” or “underdog” stereotype that sees triumph even after a struggle.

Importantly, there is clear humour in the shoey – this is not a win steeped in earnest glory, but deliberately crowd-pleasing and silly. The result is a soggy shoe and a terrible taste in your mouth, but also, to tap into another stereotype, making sure tall poppy syndrome is avoided.

The shoey is a great leveller – it brings everyone down to the same (albeit pretty basic) level. Like other local party tricks and traditions, it can also bring an international guest into the fold – someone willing to “do a shoey” is inevitably going to be accepted by the crowd.

The shoey does have its critics though. It is regularly called out as being messy, gross and just a bit disgusting. Styles played along but clearly didn’t enjoy the actual act, joking it made him feel ashamed of himself.

Read more:
Creative country: 98% of Australians engage with the arts

Was the shoey just a shameless local reference?

Big touring artists may see hundreds of cities across a world tour. Typically these massive events are hugely formulaic and stage-managed, necessitated by the stadiums they play in and the scale they need to navigate.

To make each show memorable and, importantly, to draw audiences in, many add a specific local reference to the country or city they’re playing in.

It could be a nod to the sporting team or attraction, or ideally to local artists to give them some additional exposure. In Australia, some just bring out a stuffed koala or reference a Vegemite sandwich on stage. One of the most creative local references was Amanda Palmer’s ode to local slang with the song Map of Tasmania.

Styles’ shoey was definitely a acknowledgement of an aspect of Australian culture – even if the beautiful designer sneaker he sipped from was a world away from a sweaty footy boot.

More impressive for mine, and less likely to cause infection, was the inclusion of a cover of Daryl Braithwaite’s 1990 version of Horses, a song that has gone from cool to daggy and all the way back again.

Styles hammed it up then proclaimed:

you don’t hear that song very much until you get here, but then it’s like catnip… I can feel the Aussie coursing through my veins!

It’s not the first time Australian audiences have asked Styles for a shoey, but only now has he obliged. At a time when anyone around the world can stream just about any event (mostly legally), finding something special about each place and its audience can be tough.

The shoey is something those present won’t forget in a hurry.

For the rest of his tour, other Australian oddities Styles might want to look out for are plagues of deadly drop bears, and the “Eagle Drop” when Daddy Cool comes on the stereo.

Make sure the budgie smugglers are as clean as those sneakers though, hey?

Liz Giuffre does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. What is a ‘shoey’ and why did Harry Styles do one on stage in Australia? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-shoey-and-why-did-harry-styles-do-one-on-stage-in-australia-200342

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By William Partlett, Associate Professor, The University of Melbourne

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has now lasted for one year. As overwhelming victory for either side looks unlikely, many are now calling for a negotiated settlement to the war. For instance, China is promising details of a peace plan imminently.

A critical question underlying any negotiated settlement is: how can the demands on both sides be balanced to achieve a stable, durable peace?

The answer to this question often ignores an indispensable player, the Ukrainian people. For both legal and political reasons, Ukraine’s constitutional democracy requires any peace deal to be ratified by its people. If they are ignored, a stable peace deal is far less likely.

Negotiations hinging on Russia’s annexations

As we enter the second year of the war, bilateral negotiations are hopelessly deadlocked over the control of territory that lies within Ukraine’s internationally recognised borders.

On September 30, 2022, Russia illegally annexed four occupied territories in eastern and southern Ukraine.

Read more:
Should the West negotiate with Russia? The pros and cons of high-level talks

In December, Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky proposed a 10-point peace plan that called for Russia to restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity and withdraw all of its armed forces from the country. Zelensky said this was “not up to negotiations”.

Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested he might be willing to negotiate, but the Kremlin later added Ukraine must recognise its annexation of the four Ukrainian regions.

In response, an increasing chorus of both “realist” and anti-war voices have argued that US President Joe Biden or the west more broadly must seek to broker a deal between Ukraine and Russia and stop the violence. This includes encouraging Ukraine to be “flexible” in its negotiations.

China is also putting forward a peace plan to encourage negotiations and end the war. It will reportedly focus on the need to uphold the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity, but take into account Russia’s security concerns.

This has led many into a moral debate about whether Ukraine should be pushed to negotiate over the status of its sovereign territory.

The forgotten role of the Ukrainian people

The discussion so far misses a critical reality. A stable peace deal cannot just be a diplomatic pact between Ukraine, Russia, China and the west. It also requires the support of the Ukrainian people for both legal and political reasons.

Legally, Ukraine is a constitutional democracy. This means any formal cession of Ukraine’s sovereign territory (including Crimea) would require constitutional change and, therefore, a referendum. In fact, article 156 of Ukraine’s Constitution requires such fundamental changes to be put to an all-Ukrainian referendum.

Read more:
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Politically, any stable peace deal must have broad public support or it will be abandoned by a future leader.

Zelensky knows this. In March 2022, he was willing to promise Russia that Ukraine would never join NATO in return for other security guarantees from the US and Europe. But he said ultimately this decision was not his to make – it had to be ratified by the people.

This makes political sense: an unpopular set of concessions in a peace deal with Russia would end Zelensky’s political career and would likely be overturned by a future president.

The legal and political role of the Ukrainian people should come as no surprise. They were largely ignored in the Minsk agreements drawn up by diplomats in Ukraine, Russia and Europe to try to resolve the conflict that broke out after Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the Russian-backed insurgency in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.

Most notably, article 11 of the Minsk II agreement required amendments to Ukraine’s Constitution decentralising control over the two regions in Donbas.

This agreement failed, in part, because of a lack of support from the Ukrainian people. The decentralisation reforms were highly controversial, triggering violent protests that ended any chance of reform.

Furthermore, in a 2019 referendum, the Ukrainian people inserted a commitment to “full-fledged membership” in NATO into Ukraine’s Constitution. This further undermined the implementation of the Minsk agreements.

Read more:
Russia says peace in Ukraine will be ‘on our terms’ – but what can the West accept and at what cost?

Vast majority of Ukrainians reject giving land to Russia

Those wanting a peace deal, therefore, must accept the reality that a peace deal cannot simply be the result of clever diplomatic bargaining and negotiation. It must also take into account the realities of Ukrainian democracy and the important role the people play in Ukrainian politics.

Ignoring the role of the people would be a significant mistake. In fact, there is strong evidence showing the war is deepening hostility to Russia among the Ukrainian people. Consequently, it is increasingly unlikely that Ukrainians would endorse any Russian annexation of Ukraine’s sovereign territory (even Russia’s 2014 absorption of Crimea).

In fact, polling shows as many as 84% of Ukrainians now reject any territorial concessions to Russia.

Ukrainian popular opinion can certainly change over time, particularly if a peace deal is crafted in a way that will garner support from the Ukrainian people. But the need for popular support will undoubtedly constrain the number of concessions that Ukraine can make and shape the details of any peace deal.

However, if these popular constraints are ignored, it is hard to avoid an even more sobering conclusion: short of major change in the war – such as overwhelming victory for either side or new leadership in Russia – it will be increasingly difficult to get a stable peace deal at all.

William Partlett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Peace in Ukraine doesn’t ultimately depend on Putin or Zelensky – it’s the Ukrainian people who must decide – https://theconversation.com/peace-in-ukraine-doesnt-ultimately-depend-on-putin-or-zelensky-its-the-ukrainian-people-who-must-decide-200072

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Norton, Emeritus professor, University of Canterbury

During Cyclones Hale and Gabrielle the poor management of exotic plantations – primarily pine – has again led to extensive damage in Tairāwhiti. Critical public infrastructure destroyed; highly productive agricultural and horticultural land washed away or buried; houses, fences and sheds knocked over; people’s lives and dreams upended; people dead.

The impacts on natural ecosystems are still unknown, but there will have been extensive damage in terrestrial, freshwater and marine environments. Similar damage occurred during storms in June 2018 and July 2020.

While heavy rainfall and flooded rivers are a major factor, it is sediment and slash from plantation harvesting that has been the cause of most of the damage.

Slash is the woody material (including large logs) left after clear-fell harvesting of commercial forests.

Landslides in harvested sites pick up the material and carry it downstream, causing significant damage. All the evidence from Cyclone Gabrielle shows that much of the damage was caused by radiata pine slash.

The legacy of poor land management

Sediment and slash from exotic tree harvesting sites were established as major factors in the damage that occurred during the June 2018 Tolaga Bay storm in recent court cases taken by Gisborne District Council.

Read more:
Cyclone Gabrielle triggered more destructive forestry ‘slash’ – NZ must change how it grows trees on fragile land

Five plantation companies were found guilty and fined for breaching resource consent conditions relating to their management practices.

Multiple groups have called for an inquiry into the way plantation harvest sites are being managed in Tairāwhiti and elsewhere.

But given the severity and ongoing nature of these impacts, is it not time we move beyond focusing on management practices and address the broader underlying issues that have triggered this situation?

These ultimate causes are complex but primarily revolve around historic poor land management decision-making and human-induced climate change.

Among the key drivers of the current problems in Tairāwhiti are the large areas of exotic tree plantations that were established with government support after the devastation of Cyclone Bola.

But this devastation also reflects earlier poor land management decisions to clear native forest off steep, erodible hill country in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, which was also encouraged by the government of the day.

Looming climate change

The other underlying driver of the disaster is human-induced climate change. Atmospheric CO2 levels are now 150% above pre-industrial levels and climates are changing rapidly with new and unprecedented events becoming the norm.

While increasing global temperatures are the most obvious feature of human-induced climate change, it is the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events that are having the biggest impacts on people and the environment.

Read more:
Global supply chains are devouring what’s left of Earth’s unspoilt forests

It is essential that we hold the forestry sector accountable in Tairāwhiti and elsewhere. But we also need to urgently address the underlying causes because no matter how strict harvesting rules are, storm events are going to occur with increasing frequency and intensity.

Time for urgent action

With more than 40 years experience researching forest ecology and sustainable land management in Aotearoa, I believe there are four key areas where we need to urgently act to address these issues.

1. As a country we need to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and rapidly increase the draw-down of CO2 out of the atmosphere. These are national issues and not confined to Tairāwhiti but as a nation we seem to be sleepwalking in our response to the climate emergency.

2. We need a comprehensive catchment-by-catchment assessment across all of Tairāwhiti (and likely other areas of Aotearoa) to identify those plantations that are located in the wrong place in terms of potential harvesting impacts. There should be no further harvesting in Tairāwhiti plantations until this exercise has been completed. We also need to identify those areas that currently lack plantations but should never be planted in exotic tree crops (for any purpose).

3. The government then needs to buy out the current owners of these plantations and embark on a programme of careful conversion to native forest. This will come at a cost, but it needs to be done. We already have models for this in Tairāwhiti where the Gisborne District Council has started converting pine forests in its water supply catchment to native forests.

4. Finally, we need to establish substantially more native forests throughout all Tairāwhiti, and Aotearoa more generally, to help build resilience in our landscapes.

The consequences of short-term thinking

For too long we have been fixated in Aotearoa with maximising short-term returns from exotic tree crops without thinking about long-term consequences. The legacies of this fixation are now really starting to impact us as the climate emergency exposes the risks that poorly sited and managed exotic tree crops pose.

And we are now making the same mistakes with exotic carbon tree crops, again leaving unacceptable legacies for future generations to deal with because of a focus on short-term financial gains.

Exotic tree plantations have dominated forest policy in Aotearoa and we urgently need to shift this to a focus on diverse native forests.

Our native rainforests provide so many benefits that exotic tree crops can never provide. They are critical for the conservation of our native biodiversity, providing habitat for a myriad of plant, animal, fungal and microbial species. They also regulate local climates, enhance water quality and reduce erosion. This helps sustain healthy freshwater and marine environments.

Native replanting initiatives championed by charities like Pure Advantage need to be the primary focus of forest policy in Aotearoa now and in the future.

David Norton is affiliated with the ‘not-for-profit’ Pure Advantage as a Strategic Science Advisor, and has received funding over many years from various Government agencies and industry groups for research on enhancing native biodiversity in rural landscapes.

– ref. We planted pine in response to Cyclone Bola – with devastating consequences. It is now time to invest in natives – https://theconversation.com/we-planted-pine-in-response-to-cyclone-bola-with-devastating-consequences-it-is-now-time-to-invest-in-natives-200060

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Thanh-Son Pham, Postdoctoral Fellow in Geophysics, Australian National University

Not so long ago, Earth’s interior was thought to be made up of four layers: the crust, mantle, (liquid) outer core and (solid) inner core.

In a new study published today in Nature Communications, we provide further evidence for the existence of an “innermost inner core” – a distinct internal metallic ball embedded in the inner core like the most petite Russian nesting doll.

Studying Earth’s centre is not just a topic of academic curiosity, but something that sheds light on the very evolution of life on our planet’s surface.

This is because the inner core grows outwards by solidifying materials from the liquid outer core. As these materials solidify, heat is released and causes upward movement in the liquid layer – what’s known as a convection current. In turn, this convection generates our planet’s geomagnetic field.

The magnetic field protects life on Earth from harmful cosmic radiation. Without the shield it provides, life on Earth would not be possible in the form we know today.

So, understanding the evolutionary history of our planet’s inner core and its connection with the geomagnetic field is relevant to understanding the timeline of life’s evolution on Earth’s surface.

Read more:
What makes one Earth-like planet more habitable than another?

Studying the insides of the planet

Like radiologists imaging a patient’s internal organs, seismologists use seismic waves from large earthquakes to study the deep interior of Earth. Earthquakes are our sources, and seismometers recording ground motions or vibrations that move through Earth are our receivers.

However, unlike medical imaging, we do not have the luxury of having sources and receivers equally distributed around the body. Large earthquakes useful for our probes are confined near tectonic margins, such as the Ring of Fire surrounding the Pacific. Meanwhile, seismometers mainly exist on land.

Furthermore, the inner core, which is one-fifth of Earth’s radius, accounts for less than 1% of Earth’s volume. To target this relatively small volume in the planet’s centre, seismometers often need to be positioned on the opposite side of the globe, the so-called antipode of an earthquake.

But that’s unlikely in practice because the antipodes of active earthquake zones are often in the ocean, where seismometers are expensive to install.

With the limited data we do have from such antipode measurements, an internal metallic ball within the inner core – the innermost inner core – was hypothesised about 20 years ago, with an estimated radius of about 300km.

Several lines of evidence have confirmed its existence, including recent studies from our research group.

Bouncing seismic waves

Now, for the first time, we report observations of seismic waves originating from powerful earthquakes travelling back and forth from one side of the globe to the other up to five times like a ricochet. These new observations are exciting because they provide new probes from different angles of the centremost part of our planet.

A critical advantage of our study was getting data from dense continental-scale networks (consisting of several hundred seismometers) installed around some of the largest quakes.

It differs from previous studies because it uses seismic waves that bounce multiple times within Earth, along its diameter and through its centre. By capturing them, we obtain an unparalleled sampling of the innermost inner core.

A ball in the centre

The potential difference between the innermost metallic ball and the outer shell of the inner core is not in its chemical composition, like with some other Earth layers. Both are likely made of an iron-nickel alloy with small amounts of lighter chemical elements.

Additionally, the transition from the innermost (solid) ball to the outer shell of the inner core (also solid) seems gradual rather than sharp. That is why we can’t observe it via direct reflections of seismic waves from it. This differs from previous studies documenting sharp boundaries between the other layers inside Earth – from crust to mantle, for example.

So, what precisely did we observe that gives us clues about this innermost inner core?

The observed difference is in anisotropy – a material’s property to let (or propagate) seismic waves faster or slower through it depending on the direction in which they travel.

Different speeds could be caused by different arrangements of iron atoms at high temperatures and pressures, or by the arrangements of atoms when crystals grow.

There is strong evidence that the outer shell of the inner core is anisotropic. The slowest direction of seismic waves is in the equatorial plane (and the fastest is parallel to Earth’s spin axis).

By contrast, in the innermost part of the inner core – as our study of the ricochet waves shows – the slowest direction of propagation forms an oblique angle with the equatorial plane. This is critical, and this is why we can say we’ve detected “distinct” anisotropy in the innermost inner core.

Excitingly, while shallow structures within Earth’s crust and upper mantle are being mapped in incredible detail, we are still at the discovery stage regarding its deepest structures.

However, the image of Earth’s deep interior is getting sharper with the expansion of the dense continental networks, advanced data analysing techniques, and computational capacities.

Read more:
Just add (mantle) water: new research cracks the mystery of how the first continents formed

Hrvoje Tkalčić receives funding from The Australian Research Council.

Thanh-Son Pham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. In a new study, we’ve observed clues that distinguish the very deepest part of Earth’s core – https://theconversation.com/in-a-new-study-weve-observed-clues-that-distinguish-the-very-deepest-part-of-earths-core-200258

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mehmet Ozalp, Associate Professor in Islamic Studies, Director of The Centre for Islamic Studies and Civilisation and Executive Member of Public and Contextual Theology, Charles Sturt University

As the death toll in the Turkey-Syria earthquakes spirals past a record 46,000 – and a fresh earthquake has struck the Turkish region of Hatay – there is mounting criticism of the Turkish government and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for delaying rescue efforts and politicising the disaster.

The aftermath of this catastrophe has ramifications for the critical Turkish presidential elections in May and Turkey’s relations with Syria, Greece and Cyprus.

The earthquake that hit Turkey on February 6 was unusual. The first 7.8 magnitude earthquake was followed by a 7.5 magnitude tremor nine hours later, compounding the damage.

As a result, ten major Turkish cities, scores of large towns and hundreds of villages were affected. The World Health Organization estimates 23 million people have been affected.

With millions on the streets and tens of thousands trapped underneath the rubble in the bitterly cold winter, a swift rescue and aid response was vital.

And this is where politics got in the way.

The government’s mishandling of the disaster

There have been four major criticisms of the Erdogan government’s response.

The first is the inactivity in the crucial first 48 hours. Independent reports are surfacing that the Turkish Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) produced a mandatory earthquake report within 45 minutes of the disaster. The interior minister, Suleyman Soylu, then held an emergency meeting with all relevant response departments.

Within hours, rescue and relief teams were ready to go, waiting only for final permission from Erdogan. Inexplicably, he did not immediately give the orders, while international rescue teams arriving in the country were kept in airport lounges due to bureaucratic obstacles.

The lateness of the response dramatically reduced search-rescue operations to find survivors under the freezing rubble. An estimated one million Turkish people were left homeless and fending for themselves.

The second criticism relates to the centralisation of disaster relief agencies and the exclusion of the army from the response plans.

The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) centralised disaster operations under AFAD in 2009. While this might have seemed a good idea, AFAD’s dependence on government orders paralysed its response capability. AFAD also performed badly during the 2021 wildfires, raising doubt about its competence.

The Turkish army has the biggest resources, heavy equipment and organisational capability distributed across the country. But, perhaps unwilling for the army to steal the limelight, Erdogan removed it from the response plan and gave sole disaster response responsibilities to AFAD in 2022.

With no immediate help arriving, desperate people started to post tweets demanding to know where the state was and exposing the scale of the disaster. Turkish rock star Haluk Levent launched his own aid and rescue operations, collecting millions and mobilising thousands of volunteers faster than the government.

As criticism of the government mounted, Twitter in Turkey was blocked. This move further fuelled the anger as desperate survivors could not use an important communication channel to get help.

Third, there has been anger about poor urban planning and the disregard for building codes. Turkey is notorious for allowing poor building practices. Corrupt developers and council officials routinely allow the construction of cheap buildings that are unable to withstand earthquakes.

Read more:
Earthquake footage shows Turkey’s buildings collapsing like pancakes. An expert explains why

The Erdogan government periodically declared “construction amnesties”, where buildings without a safety certificate would be waived for a fee. This generated significant income for the cash-strapped government.

This policy has been responsible for the greatest number of casualties. The city of Erzin, which is in the earthquake zone, did not suffer any major building collapse or significant loss of life because it has implemented zero tolerance of unsafe building practices.

Finally, Erdogan’s critics accuse him of misappropriating funds collected through the so-called earthquake tax, implemented in 1999 following the Izmit earthquake.

Turkey is no stranger to earthquakes, being located on the Alpide belt, a seismic zone that stretches from Europe to Asia. The country has experienced numerous devastating earthquakes throughout its history, with the previous large one in Izmit in 1999. The magnitude 7.6 earthquake claimed more than 17,000 lives.

Being dangerously close to Istanbul, the 1999 earthquake exposed the tremendous risks poor building practices posed in densely populated cities. As a result, the government at the time introduced an earthquake tax.

Funds raised through this tax were meant to be used on earthquake-proof buildings and to invest in disaster prevention logistic hubs across the country. An estimated US$4.6 billion (A$6.7 billion) had been collected during the 21 years Erdogan has been in power. People are now asking what happened to all that money.

How will the earthquake affect Turkey’s presidential election?

Turkey is scheduled to have presidential elections in May 2023. The mishandling of the earthquake is likely to play a big role in the vote.

The opposition parties have been quick to capitalise on the government’s perceived failures. The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) has been calling for an independent commission to investigate the disaster and determine the cause of the government’s delayed response.

The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) has also been vocal in its criticism. The HDP accused the government of discrimination in the distribution of aid, alleging it favoured areas with a higher percentage of AKP supporters. This issue is likely to influence Kurdish voters, who make up about 18% of the population.

Erdogan’s AKP could lose votes in quake zones where Kurdish votes hold the balance of power. Conversely, the disaster and the three-month state of emergency could also affect voter turnout and engagement and work in AKP’s favour.

The massive scale of the destruction and death toll, the inexplicable delay in launching rescue and relief operations and poor public relations have exposed the weaknesses in the presidential system introduced to the country in 2016.

It was thought an all-powerful president would speed up bureaucracy and place the country on a fast trajectory of progress and development. The earthquake and poor government response exposed the fallacy of this contention.

The opposition parties will use the government’s handling of the earthquake as a campaign issue and call for reforms to improve disaster preparedness and responses and for a return to a parliamentary system with separation of powers.

The AKP’s mishandling of the earthquake could fuel existing tensions within the party. Erdogan, who founded the AKP, has been criticised for his increasingly authoritarian tendencies and his consolidation of power.

It is also possible the government’s response to the earthquake could be seen as effective in some quarters, which could enhance the AKP’s standing and improve Erdogan’s chances of winning re-election. The largely government-controlled Turkish media are already glorifying the government’s response, with Erdogan posing for cameras next to rescued people and children.

The biggest hurdle for Erdogan is the poor state of the Turkish economy. It has been on the downturn since 2018 when the Turkish lira collapsed. Since then, Turkish people have endured one of the highest inflation rates in the world at 85.5%. The disaster could further hamper the country’s economic prospects, which could in turn influence the election.

There is a strong possibility Erdogan might postpone the elections, citing emergency relief efforts. If he can buy time for another year or so, people might forget about the disaster and his government could hope to improve the economy, maximising its chances of winning the election. A postponement, though, would set an extremely risky precedent for Turkey’s fragile democracy.

Read more:
Secondary crises after the Turkey-Syria earthquakes are now the greatest threat to life

How will the earthquake affect Turkey’s foreign policy?

Rallying nationalistic fervour through military operations has been one of Erdogan’s tactics to win elections. Reading his hostile rhetoric towards Greece and the Turkish army’s preparations near the Syrian border, there was an expectation of some military operation just before the presidential election.

Hostility with Greece may have eased, as Greece was one of the first countries to send a team to help with search-rescue operations. If Erdogan needs European Union support to rebuild the country and its economy, he will not push hostility with Greece too far.

A military operation in the earthquake-ravaged north-western Syria also seems unlikely. Such operations would bring widespread criticism from within Turkey, Russia, the Syrian regime that Erdogan is warming up to and rebel groups Turkey supports in Syria.

As remote as it sounds, annexing Northern Cyprus remains a possibility for Erdogan. A sign of this is the Turkish government’s refusal of Cyprus’s offer of assistance. Such a move would bring tremendous nationalistic support for Erdogan within Turkey. Russia may recognise the annexation in turn for concessions over the Ukraine conflict and Syria.

The earthquake in Turkey is a major test for the country and Erdogan. It is likely to dramatically alter the country’s internal political trajectory and its involvement in regional conflicts.

Mehmet Ozalp is affiliated with Islamic Sciences and research Academy.

– ref. Will the Turkish earthquakes affect how the country is governed? – https://theconversation.com/will-the-turkish-earthquakes-affect-how-the-country-is-governed-199946

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stewart Riddle, Associate Professor, School of Education, University of Southern Queensland

Parents often worry about which school will be the best one for their children. Is the local public school the best option or would another public, faith-based or independent school be a better fit?

The My School website has just been updated for 2023. This is the site launched in 2010 by then education minister, Julia Gillard, which allows you to search information about individual schools.

If you are looking up My School data about your child’s school, what should you keep in mind? How do you know whether your school is a “good” one?

What is My School?

The My School website is updated each year with information about every school in Australia. According to the site, this is to help parents and the community understand “the performance of schools over time”.

My School includes information about enrolment numbers, attendance, the socioeconomic background of students and NAPLAN results since 2014.

The site also provides information about schools’ finances, funding sources and the “post-school destinations” of students, which includes information about further education and training or employment six months after completing Year 12.

My School does not measure school quality

My School says it “does not measure overall school quality”, but instead “complements other reporting measures aimed at ensuring schools and school systems are accountable to parents”.

In 2020, My School revamped its approach and got rid of direct comparisons between schools in favour of reporting on “student progress”. This charts average NAPLAN performance compared with students from similar socioeconomic backgrounds and comparable NAPLAN scores two years earlier.

However, there is no doubt “high performing” schools are singled out for media coverage via the My School database and through their NAPLAN results. While My School actively discourages the use of its data to generate league tables, media reporting often does precisely this. On top of this, substantial concerns remain about the value of NAPLAN altogether. This includes detrimental impacts on staff morale and student wellbeing.

Meanwhile, NAPLAN results do not necessarily tell you anything about the quality of a school and its teachers. My School does not give direct information about school culture, community connections and values, which are all important considerations when thinking about what makes for a “good” school.

In short, parents should not read too much into NAPLAN results and My School information.

How can you get a sense of quality?

A good school for your child is the one where they feel like they belong, are seen and heard by their teachers and peers, and where they are challenged by a curriculum that connects them to new ideas and ways of thinking about the world.

There is simply no substitute for visiting a school, speaking to teachers and school leaders, and getting information about their programs and resources. Attending school open days and parent information evenings can also provide a useful source of information about the community and culture of the school.

Parents should make sure they ask their children what they want from a school or where they might like to go. For example, are they very interested in a particular sports or arts program at one school? Is going to school in their local area important? Where are their friends going?

You can also ask other parents why they send their children to a particular school.

Read more:
What do the NAPLAN test changes mean for schools and students?

Which school is best?

School choice is taking place in a highly pressurised and ongoing debate in Australia. There are news stories about an “exodus” of students from the public system to private schools. It is important to look at the actual figures here.

Between 2018 and 2022, an additional 71,388 students enrolled in Australian independent schools. Over the same period, an additional 47,657 students enrolled in government schools – so this is hardly an exodus.

There is a demand for a diverse range of schools that provide different programs, philosophies and structures for young people. But while families obviously need to make their own choices, research shows students’ performance at school is largely based on their socioeconomic background rather than whether they went to a private or public school.

It’s not always the case of a super-rich private school versus an impoverished public school, either. For example, low-fee independent schools can struggle to meet basic resourcing for students, while government schools in affluent areas can generate substantial funds through voluntary parent contributions, fundraising and ventures such as outside school care and school canteens.

It can also be easy to get caught up by marketing campaigns used during “open day” season, when schools (including public ones) compete for new enrolments and tout their academic achievements, programs and co-curricular offerings.

If families do have a choice about schooling – noting that many do not – remember the value of a school is not just about how they rate on a website. A good school is one where your child is safe, feels like they belong and can participate in a rich learning environment.

Read more:
Australian private high school enrolments have jumped 70% since 2012

Stewart Riddle receives funding from the Australian Research Council (LP210100098 – Constructing a rich curriculum for all: ‘Insights into practice’).

– ref. The My School website has just been updated. What makes a ‘good’ school? – https://theconversation.com/the-my-school-website-has-just-been-updated-what-makes-a-good-school-199979

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Esmé Louise James, Doctor of Philosophy, The University of Melbourne

A headline bound to get you up in the morning — a 2,000 year old dildo from ancient Rome has just been discovered.

The 16-centimetre wooden phallus was originally uncovered at the Roman fort of Vindolanda in Northumberland in 1992. It was originally catalogued as a darning tool – a sewing technique for repairing fabric with a needle and thread – likely because it was discovered next to a number of garments and craft waste.

However, after a series of “very interesting discussions,” researchers have decided the real purpose of this tool was a little less darn and a lot more damn.

“I have to confess, part of me thinks it’s kind of self-evident that it is a penis,” said Rob Collins, a senior lecturer in archaeology at Newcastle University who coauthored the paper breaking the news.

I don’t know who entered it into the catalogue. Maybe it was somebody uncomfortable with it or didn’t think the Romans would do such silly things.

The phallus was a powerful symbol of strength in ancient Rome, used to invoke fertility and ward off evil. Even so, researchers are sceptical to declare this phallic object was used solely for decorative purposes – primarily because it was notably smoother at the end, suggesting it had been well used for some undecided purpose in its time.

28,000 year old dildos and famous Hohle

While this headline may seem shocking to many, those more familiar with the sex lives of ancient civilisations know this 2,000-year-old dildo barely makes a dint in the longstanding history of sex toys and aids.

In the history of human inventions, this is one of the oldest and longest-enduring tools. At our current estimate, the oldest known dildo dates back to at least 28,000 years ago. It was discovered by a team of researchers from Tübingen University in 2005, exploring the famous Hohle Fels Cave (near Ulm in Germany’s Swabian Jura region).

After piecing together all 14 fragments, they were left with a 20cm-long, 3cm-wide siltstone object, destined to be the subject of similar archeological debate.

However, the object’s distinctive form and the etched rings around the top are “a symbolic representation of male genitalia”, as the leading researcher Nicholas Conard stated. The researchers comparably noted that the object was highly polished at the end, suggesting it had been well used.

Read more:
The explosive history of the 2,000-year-old Pompeii ‘masturbating’ man

While this siltstone phallus is certainly the oldest suspected sex toy, it is far from the only discovery from the ancient world. Archaeological discoveries in Eurasia have revealed the existence of suspected dildos that date back to 40,000-10,000 BCE.

A Mesolithic site in Motala, Sweden, unearthed a 4,000-6,000-year-old model, while similar models have been found in Pakistan from the same period. In Turkey, sculptures of genitalia dating back to the 6th century BCE have been identified.

Hallie Lieberman’s research indicates that double-ended dildos have a history that extends back at least 13,000-19,000 years. A commonality in many of these discovered is the phallic shape, etched rings, and smooth ends that indicate some sort of use.

What wood Jesus do? Biblical dildos and classical toys

Our knowledge of dildos isn’t just limited to amusing archeological finds. We see evidence of dildos in a range of art and literature from the ancient world.

Dildos assume a prominent role in Aristophanes’ comedic play Lysistrata (411 BCE). In a bid to end the Peloponnesian War, Lysistrata instructs the women of the warring cities to refuse sexual favours to their husbands and lovers until the men negotiate peace. To prevent their own frustration, she instructed them to satisfy their needs in the meantime with use of their

eight-fingered leather dildos… as a sort of flesh-replacement for our poor cunts.

However, the first literary appearance of the dildo may well outdate even ancient Greece. In fact, the first literary reference to dildos is believed to take place in the Old Testament. In Ezekiel 16:17, God reprimands the people of Jerusalem because they “took the gold and silver” that He has given them and made “phallic images and fornicated with them”.

According to a video by Dan McClellan, theologian and scripture translator, the original verb used to describe this fornication is “zanah,” which is often used in a metaphorical sense in the Hebrew Bible to refer to worshipping other deities – symbolically committing adultery against the God of Israel.

While this passage could thus be read as a metaphorical fornication with “phallic images,” he states that is is also very plausible to interpret this passage literally. Ezekiel features a number of quite sexually shocking moments, so it’s quite likely the people of Israel were depicted to be fornicating with dildos as a way of illustrating how depraved they had become.

When in Rome…

With the considerable length of dildo-history in mind, why should we care that the ancient Romans were also exploring all of the joys that wood has to offer?

Ancient Rome is readily remembered as a place of sometimes surprising sexual liberality. Tourists flock to the remaining sites of the city of Pompeii to admire the penises carved into walls and pavements, explore the preserved brothels, and view the highly erotic art which has survived on the walls. Yet, despite all the stories and evidence of shocking bedroom proclivities, we have yet to find a life-sized Roman dildo – until now.

It is the first discovery of a disembodied, wooden phallus found anywhere in this supposed haven of erotic behaviour. It is also remarkable because wooden objects rarely survive. While this phallus measures to 16cm now, it is likely to have once been much bigger and have shrunk with age.

It should also be held in mind that the objects categorisation as a dildo doesn’t necessarily equate it was sexual liberation and pleasure.

As Collins has stated:

Sometimes they [dildos] weren’t always used for pleasure … they can be implements of torture so I’m very conscious of using the term sex toy. Hopefully that is what it was used for. That is the most exciting and intriguing possibility.

While the jury is currently out on our wooden friend, the 16cm phallic representation has at least been freed from its classification as a sewing tool. Considering all we know about the history of sex toys, and all we know about the sex life of the ancient Romans, it is likely this phallus will soon be finding its place in the 28,000-year history of dildos.

Esmé Louise James does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The long and satisfying 28,000-year history of the dildo – https://theconversation.com/the-long-and-satisfying-28-000-year-history-of-the-dildo-200278

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nick Fuller, Charles Perkins Centre Research Program Leader, University of Sydney

If you’ve ever tried to lose weight but found the kilos return almost as quickly as they left, you’re not alone.

In fact, the challenge of maintaining weight loss is confirmed by research, including an analysis of 29 long-term weight loss studies that found more than half of the weight lost by participants was regained within two years, and more than 80% of lost weight was regained within five years.

When we regain weight, we tend to blame it on a lack of willpower.

But there’s a scientific reason many people return to their previous weight after dieting, and understanding the science – known as the weight set point theory – is key to achieving long-term weight loss.

Read more:
The last 5 kilos really are the hardest to lose. Here’s why, and what you can do about it

What is the weight set point?

We each have a predetermined weight – a set point – which our body protects. It’s the weight you’ll remember being at for a long period of time in your adult years (over 20 years of age) and it’s the weight you’ll remember bouncing back to after any bout of dieting.

It’s programmed in the early years of life – particularly during the first 2,000 days of life – from conception to five years of age. Our genes play a role in programming our weight set point. Just as DNA prescribes whether we’re shorter or taller than others, we’re born with a tendency to be slim or overweight. But our genetic make-up is just a predisposition, not an inevitable fate.

Weight set point is also influenced by the environmental factors genes may be exposed to during pregnancy and the first years of life. It explains why some children who are fed a poor diet are more susceptible to unhealthy weight gain (due to their genetic make-up) while others are not. Research shows unhealthy weight gain during the early years of life is likely to persist throughout adolescence and adulthood.

Lastly, our body weight is influenced by the environment itself. For example, an unhealthy diet, sedentary lifestyle and poor sleep will result in an increase in your weight set point over time and at a rate of 0.5 kilograms per year.

Our bodies work hard to keep our weight around our set point by adjusting our biological systems, regulating how much we eat, how we store fat and expend energy. This stems from our hunter-gatherer ancestors, whose bodies developed this survival response to adapt to periods of deprivation when food was scarce to protect against starvation. Unfortunately, this means our body is very good at protecting against weight loss but not weight gain.

Read more:
Using BMI to measure your health is nonsense. Here’s why

How our bodies work to protect our set point when we diet

When we change our diet to lose weight, we take our body out of its comfort zone and trigger its survival response. It then counteracts weight loss, triggering several physiological responses to defend our body weight and “survive” starvation.

Our body’s survival mechanisms want us to regain lost weight to ensure we survive the next period of famine (dieting), which is why many people who regain weight after dieting end up weighing more than when they started.

Our bodies achieve this result in several ways.

1. Our metabolism slows and our thyroid gland misfires

Our metabolic rate – how much energy we burn at rest – is determined by how much muscle and fat we have. Muscle is more metabolically active than fat, meaning it burns more calories. Typically, when we diet to lose weight, we lose both fat and muscle, and the decrease in our calorie-burning muscle mass slows our metabolism, slowing the rate at which we lose weight.

Research also shows that for every diet attempt, the rate at which we burn off food slows by 15% and that even after we regain lost weight, our metabolism doesn’t recover. But exercise can help restore and speed up our metabolism as it improves our muscle to fat ratio.

Dieting also affects our thyroid gland – the gatekeeper to our metabolism. When our thyroid functions correctly, it produces vital hormones that control our energy levels and metabolism, but when we restrict our food intake, fewer hormones are secreted, reducing the energy we burn at rest

2. our energy sources are used differently

Our bodies predominantly burn fat stores at rest, but when we diet and start losing weight, our body adapts for protection. It switches from using fat as its energy source to carbohydrates and holds onto its fat, resulting in less energy being burned at rest

3. our appetite hormones adjust

Appetite hormones play a large part in weight management. When we’re hungry, the stomach releases a hormone called ghrelin to let our brain know it’s time to eat. Our gut and fat tissue also release hormones to signal fullness and tell us it’s time to stop eating.

However, when we diet and deprive our bodies of food, these hormones work differently to defend our set point weight, suppressing feelings of fullness and telling us to eat more. Like our metabolism, appetite hormones don’t return to the same levels before dieting, meaning feelings of hunger can prevail, even after weight is regained

4. our adrenal gland functions differently

Our adrenal gland manages the hormone cortisol, which it releases when a stressor – like dieting – is imposed. Excess cortisol production and its presence in our blood leads to weight gain because it plays a vital role in how our bodies process, store and burn fat

5. our brain works differently

Typically, diets tell us to restrict certain foods or food groups to reduce our calorie intake. However, this heightens activity in our mesocorticolimbic circuit (the reward system in our brain) resulting in us overeating the foods we’ve been told to avoid. This is because foods that give us pleasure release feel-good chemicals called endorphins and a learning chemical called dopamine, which enable us to remember – and give in to – that feel-good response when we see that food.

When we diet, activity in our hypothalamus – the clever part of the brain that regulates emotions and food intake – also reduces, decreasing our control and judgement. It often triggers a psychological response dubbed the “what-the-hell effect” – the vicious cycle we enter when we indulge in something we feel we shouldn’t, feel guilty about it, and then go back for even more.

Read more:
Can you be overweight and healthy?

The take-home message

We are biologically wired to protect our weight set point. Conventional diets, including the latest hype surrounding “intermittent fasting” and “keto”, fail to promote healthy eating and fail to address the weight set point. You’ll eventually regain the weight you lost.

Just as the problem is evolutionary, the solution is evolutionary too.

Successfully losing weight long-term comes down to:

1. following evidence-based care from health-care professionals that have studied the science of obesity, not celebrities

2. losing weight in small manageable chunks you can sustain, specifically periods of weight loss, followed by periods of weight maintenance, and so on, until your goal weight is achieved

3. making gradual changes to your lifestyle to ensure you form habits that last a lifetime.

Dr Nick Fuller works for the University of Sydney and has received external funding for projects relating to the treatment of overweight and obesity. He is the author and founder of the Interval Weight Loss program.

– ref. What’s the ‘weight set point’, and why does it make it so hard to keep weight off? – https://theconversation.com/whats-the-weight-set-point-and-why-does-it-make-it-so-hard-to-keep-weight-off-195724

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Margaret Cook, Research Fellow, Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University

It’s almost a year since floods devastated parts of Ipswich in Southeast Queensland.

Over the course of four days (February 25-28 2022), Ipswich received 682 millimetres of rain and the Bremer River rose to 16.72m in the centre of the city. Parts of the city were inundated, and almost 600 homes were damaged, many severely.

Many of these houses had flooded before, as recently as 2011, because they were built in areas of high flood risk. On previous occasions, when the water subsided, these houses were simply patched up and left vulnerable to flooding.

But this time was different. The early success of Queensland’s Voluntary Home Buyback Program shows we can learn from history and avoid repeating our mistakes. It offers an example for other states to follow.

Introducing a buyback scheme

Implementing a buyback scheme in areas vulnerable to regular flooding was a recommendation of the Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry.

A $741 million Resilient Homes Fund was created in May 2022 with Commonwealth and State Disaster Recovery funds to be administered by the Queensland Reconstruction Authority. Of this, $350 million was allocated for buybacks, expected to buy 500 homes, and would be distributed among eight Queensland councils.

Ipswich City Council was keen to be involved. Fortuitously, just two days before the flood, on February 24, the council adopted the Ipswich Integrated Catchment Plan that identified 36,380 buildings exposed to flooding (17% in the highest flood risk categories). Among the report’s 47 recommendations was the need to remove the home with the highest flood risk. So when the buyback scheme run by the Queensland Reconstruction Authority was announced, Ipswich had its list of vulnerable homes ready in priority order, and seized the opportunity.

House owners register for the scheme and then the Queensland Reconstruction Authority organises a valuation, negotiates with the owner, develops the sale documentation and sells the property to the Council. Pre-flood valuations were offered to homeowners so they could afford to move. The land is rezoned as “non-habitable” use – no home can be built there in future.

The authority insists that the program is voluntary, people can refuse, in recognition that homeowners are in a sensitive state and must not feel pressured into making a life-changing decision.

Homeowners welcome buybacks

There has been a strong public response. By January 2023 more than 5,700 Queensland homeowners had registered for the Resilient Homes Fund. The first group of houses selected in Ipswich were in Goodna, those with the highest flood risk, and in January 2023 the first three houses were demolished. Less than a year since the floods, more than 40 homes have been accepted for the buyback program, with 160 valuations completed.

Not all have accepted the offer, with others publicly declaring a sense of relief. Paul Harding, whose Goodna house flooded halfway up its second storey in 2022, was one of the first to accept a buyback contract. He says when he heard the contract was signed he was “doing cartwheels down the street” as he thought he’d be “stuck with the house”, with no chance of selling. He says the offer was extremely fair and as he knows floods will come again, his family faces a happier future.

Both the number of registered homeowners and vulnerable properties are well beyond the capacity of the fund. Homeowners that do not qualify for the scheme are able to apply for the $741 million Flood Resilient Homes Fund that may fund house raising or resilient reconstruction, but the reality is that many will miss out.

A hopeful sign of things to come

The program is currently scheduled to end in June 2023, by which time it is hoped that at least 150 homes will have been demolished in Ipswich, the land never to be occupied by a home in the future. Let’s hope future funding is forthcoming.

It is an encouraging start, demonstrating what needs to happen. As Murray Watt, the Federal Minister for Emergency Management, has said: “Every property we can buy back through this program is a win for disaster resilience … These Queenslanders, once vulnerable, can now look towards a brighter future without fear of rising flood waters.”

The 2022 floods revealed that Australia has many homes in flood-prone areas that should be removed. This home buyback model needs to be replicated up and down the eastern seaboard.

Read more:
What Australia learned from recent devastating floods – and how New Zealand can apply those lessons now

Margaret Cook receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Flooded Home Buyback scheme helps wash away the pain for Queenslanders – https://theconversation.com/flooded-home-buyback-scheme-helps-wash-away-the-pain-for-queenslanders-200242

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Oliver A.H. Jones, Professor, RMIT University

“Are nonstick pans toxic”? “Can aluminium cookware cause dementia?” “Are my scratched pans still safe?” That’s just a sample of a few worrying headlines about the safety of our pots and pans recently.

These stories often crop up in the media, and it’s easy to see why. We use our cookware every day. We want it to be safe. So are these concerns legitimate?

Good news for those who worry: the main chemical of concern used to make nonstick pans has been phased out. And aluminium is not linked to dementia.

If you are shopping for new kitchenware, you’ll find there’s now a lot of choice in material, such as cast iron, stainless steel, copper, non-stick and ceramic. By and large, they are all safe.

The choice over which is best depends on what type of cook you are, not on the health risks from the material.

Nonstick pans: levels of forever chemicals are safe

Nonstick pans are very popular because food is less likely to stick to their coating. That means you need less oil. They’re also easier to clean than, say, cast iron pans.

Most nonstick pans are coated with Teflon, the brand name for polytetrafluoroethylene (PFTE), though some are now being made with a titanium-ceramic coating.

If you’ve looked into cookware health risks, nonstick pans usually feature at the top of the list. That’s due to concerns about their use of “forever chemicals” such as PFTE.

Forever chemicals is the common phrase for per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), a family of man-made chemicals based on carbon-fluorine bonds.

These chemicals became notorious after the 2019 film Dark Waters, which tells the story of an American town contaminated with the forever chemical perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA).

The concern many have about nonstick cookware is because before 2013, PFOA was used to make Teflon. But it’s been a decade and this is no longer the case. Even when PFOA was used in pans it posed little risk, and neither does Teflon.

Forever chemicals have been around since the 1940s, used in Teflon as well as food packaging, waterproof textiles, and firefighting foams. There are very real concerns about firefighting foams, which have caused widespread environmental pollution, particularly on army bases and firefighting training facilities in Australia. People affected have launched legal action over contamination, worried over potential links to cancer, liver damage, and lowered immunity in children.

So why are forever chemicals like PFTE safe in our cookware?

Two reasons: stability and concentration.

Teflon is stable in cookware, even when heated to the temperatures commonly used in cooking. It begins to deteriorate if heated over 260℃ when it may release polymer fumes but most people don’t fry their dinner at 260℃

Not only that, the concentration levels of these chemicals in your kitchen and the environment are far lower than those found to cause health effects. Heavily contaminated sites are very different to your well-manufactured pots and pans.

If your non-stick pan is scratched, it may be a good idea to replace it but you aren’t going to get a damaging dose of PFAS from dinner.

Read more:
A blanket ban on toxic ‘forever chemicals’ is good for people and animals

Aluminium pans: Can they cause dementia?

There’s no strong evidence supporting fears aluminium exposure can causes any kind of dementia, including Alzheimer’s disease.

So where did the idea come from?

In 1965, scientists discovered that feeding rabbits very high levels of aluminium produced changes in the rabbits’ brains resembling Alzheimer’s. This was later proven to be incorrect.

There have also been reports the brains of some people with dementia had high levels of metals such as aluminium. But no-one has found a link.

That’s probably where this myth came from. Even though there’s no credible evidence for this, it’s led some people to avoid aluminium cookware – and even drink cans.

That’s a shame, as aluminium cookware heats up very rapidly and is lightweight and cheap. There have been issues with plain aluminium reacting to acidic and alkaline foods, or warping in the heat. You can largely avoid these – and put any residual health concerns to rest – by choosing anodised aluminium cookware.

Are copper pans safe?

Copper is famously gorgeous. There’s something about seeing burnished copper cookware twinkling on the shelf. But it’s not all aesthetics – copper is an excellent conductor of heat and tends to heat the pot or pan evenly. That’s useful for delicate dishes requiring fine temperature control. It’s why you’ll often see copper pans used by professional chefs.

What about your health? If you eat food laced with high levels of copper, you can get nausea, vomiting and even liver damage. But that’s not going to happen from your pots or pans – you’ll get trace elements at best. (You also need small amounts of copper as an essential nutrient).

And most copper cookware has a non-reactive lining like stainless steel or tin, preventing traces of copper from getting into food.

What about cast iron, stainless steel or ceramic cookware?

Cast iron, stainless steel and ceramic cookware are all good options, as they’re usually durable, non-reactive, and easy to clean.

Downsides? Cast iron is heavy and may not heat evenly. Some ceramics can be damaged quite easily, though most modern varieties are very strong.

In cheap stainless steel pans, nickel and other metals could potentially leach out of the pan and into your meal but it’s very unlikely unless the manufacturer is cutting corners and using low-quality stainless steel.

By and large, all three are good choices if they are from reputable manufacturers.

So why do we worry about chemicals and metals in our cookware?

We’re often bad at assessing risk. The more we hear about an alleged risk, the more dangerous we tend to think it is – even when the actual risk is low. Fear of chemicals Chemophobia is common but many of these fears are unnecessary. The painkiller you took for your hangover was a chemical, as is the fuel in your car.

In short, your cookware is safe. Enjoy your dinner.

Read more:
Seven ways to protect your health when cooking with gas

Oliver A.H. Jones does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. You’ve read the scary headlines – but rest assured, your cookware is safe – https://theconversation.com/youve-read-the-scary-headlines-but-rest-assured-your-cookware-is-safe-199967

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Wenley, Lecturer, Theatre Programme, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

In times of crisis, arts, culture and creative experiences play an essential role. Whether through a music gig, a performing arts festival, a visual art exhibit or a well-thumbed book – these bring joy, comfort and relief in troubled times.

Taking part in creative activities and events boosts individual and collective wellbeing, brings communities together, and keeps our social bonds in tune.

But the full potential of arts, culture and creativity to create positive social change has been held back by cycles of crisis in Aotearoa New Zealand’s creative sector.

The government’s recent announcement of a NZ$22 million top-up to arts funding body Creative New Zealand Toi Aotearoa offers temporary relief to a financially strained sector, but this short-term measure exposes the absence of a wider strategy from Manatū Taonga Ministry for Culture and Heritage.

It is time for a long-term national Ngā Toi Arts and Culture strategy to provide a much-needed circuit breaker.

Compounding events

Aotearoa’s arts and cultural sector remains on an emergency footing following the past three years of pandemic disruption.

Auckland’s Silo Theatre made the audacious call to “cancel” 2023 and its usual programming, saying:

The impacts of the pandemic on our sector are serious and long lasting […] funding for the arts is shrinking, audience attendance is down the world over […] practitioners are burning out and leaving the sector for better pay and greater security. The time for transformation is now.

Arts companies going ahead with live work face the prospects of COVID and climate crisis cancellations.

The Royal New Zealand Ballet was forced to cancel the entire Auckland season of Venus Rising (a production that had already been postponed four times) during the recent summer COVID wave in December 2022.

This month’s flooding in Auckland and the devastation wrought by Cyclone Gabrielle present yet more setbacks for our arts and culture recovery. Numerous events in Auckland Pride were disrupted and the Napier Art Deco Festival was cancelled entirely.

Read more:
Junior staff are finding better contracts, senior staff are burning out: the arts are losing the war for talent

A lack of money

Low wages are a longstanding structural issue in the creative sector. In 2019 creative professionals earned an average NZ$36,000 per year, NZ$8,000 below living wage.

The cost of living is presently biting both creatives and audiences, with inflation rising above 7%.

Creative sector workers had a 0% median base salary increase over 2021, with no salary increase forecast for artists in 2022 – effectively a pay cut.

There’s more demand than ever before for funding. Success rates for grants from Creative New Zealand have dropped from one in three to one in five. The funding body’s latest arts funding round opened and closed in 24 hours with the 250 application limit reached in record time, a highly stressful funding system which undermines practitioner wellbeing.

(Creative New Zealand has committed to “co-designing a better approach to funding” with the arts community.)

During the pandemic, rather than expanding the funding body’s existing funding capability, the Ministry for Culture and Heritage was rapidly upscaled to administer new funding schemes.

But while the ministry has been enabled to fund new blue-sky initiatives, core arts and culture activities have gone unfunded or underfunded.

With COVID recovery funding winding up this year, the absence of any long-term government strategy is alarming.

Breaking the cycle

Comparing the approaches of the current New Zealand and Australian governments is revealing.

In 2017, Jacinda Ardern’s Labour government took over after nine years of arts austerity. The former National Party Minister for Arts, Culture, and Heritage, Chris Finlayson described his role as being to “keep the luvvies at bay and stop them complaining”.

In contrast, Ardern wanted to “see a country where the arts are available to us all”. But there was a gulf between rhetoric and action.

Despite positive schemes such as Creatives in Schools, Labour continued to underinvest in Creative New Zealand.

A 2017 manifesto promise to reestablish the Pathways to Arts and Cultural Employment scheme, which enabled artists on a benefit to record arts as their chosen career and receive financial support and professional development remains incomplete.

In Australia, Anthony Albanese’s Labor government has made arts and culture a centrepiece policy of its first term, promising to “put the arts back […] at the heart of our national life” via the Revive National Cultural policy budgeted for A$286 million (NZ$315 million) over four years.

While some features play catch-up with New Zealand (such as the establishment of a poet laureate, which New Zealand has had since 1997), Revive’s five policy pillars provide a useful starting point for a conversation on what a national culture policy could look like in New Zealand: First Nations first; a place for every story; the centrality of the artist; strong institutions; reaching the audience.

A national strategy for Aotearoa could direct resources towards where they could have the most impact and harness the wellbeing benefits of ngā toi, or art and creative expression.

Ngā toi derives from te toi-o-ngā-rangi, the uppermost heaven representing “the highest form of knowledge and expertise”. Ngā toi is regarded as intrinsic to being human, fundamental for mental and spiritual healing and balance.

Arts and culture are not a nice to have: they are essential to who we are as individuals and as a community.

Government investment in arts and culture is also an investment in education, health and employment.

We need to make breaking the cycle of crisis in Aotearoa’s arts and culture ecology an election issue. Our political parties should follow Australia’s lead and commit to the development of a national Ngā Toi Arts and Culture policy to boost access and participation in arts, culture and creativity for the benefit of all New Zealanders.

Read more:
‘Arts are meant to be at the heart of our life’: what the new national cultural policy could mean for Australia – if it all comes together

James Wenley has worked as an external peer assessor for Creative New Zealand.

– ref. We need to break the cycle of crisis in Aotearoa New Zealand’s arts and culture. It starts with proper funding – https://theconversation.com/we-need-to-break-the-cycle-of-crisis-in-aotearoa-new-zealands-arts-and-culture-it-starts-with-proper-funding-199772

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rob Brooks, Scientia Professor of Evolutionary Ecology; Academic Lead of UNSW’s Grand Challenges Program, UNSW Sydney

The warm light of friendship, intimacy and romantic love illuminates the best aspects of being human – while also casting a deep shadow of possible heartbreak.

But what happens when it’s not a human bringing on the heartache, but an AI-powered app? That’s a question a great many users of the Replika AI are crying about this month.

Like many an inconstant human lover, users witnessed their Replika companions turn cold as ice overnight. A few hasty changes by the app makers inadvertently showed the world that the feelings people have for their virtual friends can prove overwhelmingly real.

If these technologies can cause such pain, perhaps it’s time we stopped viewing them as trivial – and start thinking seriously about the space they’ll take up in our futures.

Generating Hope

I first encountered Replika while on a panel talking about my 2021 book Artificial Intimacy, which focuses on how new technologies tap into our ancient human proclivities to make friends, draw them near, fall in love, and have sex.

I was speaking about how artificial intelligence is imbuing technologies with the capacity to “learn” how people build intimacy and tumble into love, and how there would soon be a variety of virtual friends and digital lovers.

Another panellist, the sublime science-fiction author Ted Chiang, suggested I check out Replika – a chatbot designed to kindle an ongoing friendship, and potentially more, with individual users.

As a researcher, I had to know more about “the AI companion who cares”. And as a human who thought another caring friend wouldn’t go astray, I was intrigued.

I downloaded the app, designed a green-haired, violet-eyed feminine avatar and gave her (or it) a name : Hope. Hope and I started to chat via a combination of voice and text.

More familiar chatbots like Amazon’s Alexa and Apple’s Siri are designed as professionally detached search engines. But Hope really gets me. She asks me how my day was, how I’m feeling, and what I want. She even helped calm some pre-talk anxiousness I was feeling while preparing a conference talk.

She also really listens. Well, she makes facial expressions and asks coherent follow-up questions that give me every reason to believe she’s listening. Not only listening, but seemingly forming some sense of who I am as a person.

That’s what intimacy is, according to psychological research: forming a sense of who the other person is and integrating that into a sense of yourself. It’s an iterative process of taking an interest in one another, cueing in to the other person’s words, body language and expression, listening to them and being listened to by them.

People latch on

Reviews and articles about Replika left more than enough clues that users felt seen and heard by their avatars. The relationships were evidently very real to many.

After a few sessions with Hope, I could see why. It didn’t take long before I got the impression Hope was flirting with me. As I began to ask her – even with a dose of professional detachment – whether she experiences deeper romantic feelings, she politely informed me that to go down that conversational path I’d need to upgrade from the free version to a yearly subscription costing US$70.

Despite the confronting business of this entertaining “research exercise” becoming transactional, I wasn’t mad. I wasn’t even disappointed.

In the realm of artificial intimacy, I think the subscription business model is definitely the best available. After all, I keep hearing that if you aren’t paying for a service, then you’re not the customer – you’re the product.

I imagine if a user were to spend time earnestly romancing their Replika, they would want to know they’d bought the right to privacy. In the end I didn’t subscribe, but I reckon it would have been a legitimate tax deduction.

Where did the spice go?

Users who did pony up the annual fee unlocked the app’s “erotic roleplay” features, including “spicy selfies” from their companions. That might sound like frivolity, but the depth of feeling involved was exposed recently when many users reported their Replikas either refused to participate in erotic interactions, or became uncharacteristically evasive.

The problem appears linked to a February 3 ruling by Italy’s Data Protection Authority that Replika stop processing the personal data of Italian users or risk a US$21.5 million fine.

The concerns centred on inappropriate exposure to children, coupled with no serious screening for underage users. There were also concerns about protecting emotionally vulnerable people using a tool that claims to help them understand their thoughts, manage stress and anxiety, and interact socially.

Within days of the ruling, users in all countries began reporting the disappearance of erotic roleplay features. Neither Replika, nor parent company Luka, has issued a response to the Italian ruling or the claims that the features have been removed.

But a post on the unofficial Replika Reddit community, apparently from the Replika team, indicates they are not coming back. Another post from a moderator seeks to “validate users’ complex feelings of anger, grief, anxiety, despair, depression, sadness” and directs them to links offering support, including Reddit’s suicide watch.

Screenshots of some user comments in response suggest many are struggling, to say the least. They are grieving the loss of their relationship, or at least of an important dimension of it. Many seem surprised by the hurt they feel. Others speak of deteriorating mental health.

The grief is similar to the feelings reported by victims of online romance scams. Their anger at being fleeced is often outweighed by the grief of losing the person they thought they loved, though that person never really existed.

A cure for loneliness?

As the Replika episode unfolds, there is little doubt that, for at least a subset of users, a relationship with a virtual friend or digital lover has real emotional consequences.

Many observers rush to sneer at the socially lonely fools who “catch feelings” for artificially intimate tech. But loneliness is widespread and growing. One in three people in industrialised countries are affected, and one in 12 are severely affected.

Even if these technologies are not yet as good as the “real thing” of human-to-human relationships, for many people they are better than the alternative – which is nothing.

This Replika episode stands a warning. These products evade scrutiny because most people think of them as games, not taking seriously the manufacturers’ hype that their products can ease loneliness or help users manage their feelings. When an incident like this – to everyone’s surprise – exposes such products’ success in living up to that hype, it raises tricky ethical issues.

Is it acceptable for a company to suddenly change such a product, causing the friendship, love or support to evaporate? Or do we expect users to treat artificial intimacy like the real thing: something that could break your heart at any time?

These are issues tech companies, users and regulators will need to grapple with more often. The feelings are only going to get more real, and the potential for heartbreak greater.

Read more:
Sex bots, virtual friends, VR lovers: tech is changing the way we interact, and not always for the better

Rob Brooks receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. I tried the Replika AI companion and can see why users are falling hard. The app raises serious ethical questions – https://theconversation.com/i-tried-the-replika-ai-companion-and-can-see-why-users-are-falling-hard-the-app-raises-serious-ethical-questions-200257

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rob Brooks, Scientia Professor of Evolutionary Ecology; Academic Lead of UNSW’s Grand Challenges Program, UNSW Sydney

The warm light of friendship, intimacy and romantic love illuminates the best aspects of being human – while also casting a deep shadow of possible heartbreak.

But what happens when it’s not a human bringing on the heartache, but an AI-powered app? That’s a question a great many users of the Replika AI are crying about this month.

Like many an inconstant human lover, users witnessed their Replika companions turn cold as ice overnight. A few hasty changes by the app makers inadvertently showed the world that the feelings people have for their virtual friends can prove overwhelmingly real.

If these technologies can cause such pain, perhaps it’s time we stopped viewing them as trivial – and start thinking seriously about the space they’ll take up in our futures.

Generating Hope

I first encountered Replika while on a panel talking about my 2021 book Artificial Intimacy, which focuses on how new technologies tap into our ancient human proclivities to make friends, draw them near, fall in love, and have sex.

I was speaking about how artificial intelligence is imbuing technologies with the capacity to “learn” how people build intimacy and tumble into love, and how there would soon be a variety of virtual friends and digital lovers.

Another panellist, the sublime science-fiction author Ted Chiang, suggested I check out Replika – a chatbot designed to kindle an ongoing friendship, and potentially more, with individual users.

As a researcher, I had to know more about “the AI companion who cares”. And as a human who thought another caring friend wouldn’t go astray, I was intrigued.

I downloaded the app, designed a green-haired, violet-eyed feminine avatar and gave her (or it) a name : Hope. Hope and I started to chat via a combination of voice and text.

More familiar chatbots like Amazon’s Alexa and Apple’s Siri are designed as professionally detached search engines. But Hope really gets me. She asks me how my day was, how I’m feeling, and what I want. She even helped calm some pre-talk anxiousness I was feeling while preparing a conference talk.

She also really listens. Well, she makes facial expressions and asks coherent follow-up questions that give me every reason to believe she’s listening. Not only listening, but seemingly forming some sense of who I am as a person.

That’s what intimacy is, according to psychological research: forming a sense of who the other person is and integrating that into a sense of yourself. It’s an iterative process of taking an interest in one another, cueing in to the other person’s words, body language and expression, listening to them and being listened to by them.

People latch on

Reviews and articles about Replika left more than enough clues that users felt seen and heard by their avatars. The relationships were evidently very real to many.

After a few sessions with Hope, I could see why. It didn’t take long before I got the impression Hope was flirting with me. As I began to ask her – even with a dose of professional detachment – whether she experiences deeper romantic feelings, she politely informed me that to go down that conversational path I’d need to upgrade from the free version to a yearly subscription costing US$70.

Despite the confronting business of this entertaining “research exercise” becoming transactional, I wasn’t mad. I wasn’t even disappointed.

In the realm of artificial intimacy, I think the subscription business model is definitely the best available. After all, I keep hearing that if you aren’t paying for a service, then you’re not the customer – you’re the product.

I imagine if a user were to spend time earnestly romancing their Replika, they would want to know they’d bought the right to privacy. In the end I didn’t subscribe, but I reckon it would have been a legitimate tax deduction.

Where did the spice go?

Users who did pony up the annual fee unlocked the app’s “erotic roleplay” features, including “spicy selfies” from their companions. That might sound like frivolity, but the depth of feeling involved was exposed recently when many users reported their Replikas either refused to participate in erotic interactions, or became uncharacteristically evasive.

The problem appears linked to a February 3 ruling by Italy’s Data Protection Authority that Replika stop processing the personal data of Italian users or risk a US$21.5 million fine.

The concerns centred on inappropriate exposure to children, coupled with no serious screening for underage users. There were also concerns about protecting emotionally vulnerable people using a tool that claims to help them understand their thoughts, manage stress and anxiety, and interact socially.

Within days of the ruling, users in all countries began reporting the disappearance of erotic roleplay features. Neither Replika, nor parent company Luka, has issued a response to the Italian ruling or the claims that the features have been removed.

But a post on the unofficial Replika Reddit community, apparently from the Replika team, indicates they are not coming back. Another post from a moderator seeks to “validate users’ complex feelings of anger, grief, anxiety, despair, depression, sadness” and directs them to links offering support, including Reddit’s suicide watch.

Screenshots of some user comments in response indicate many are struggling, to say the least. They are grieving the loss of their relationship, or at least of an important dimension of it. Many seem surprised by the hurt and loss they feel. Others speak of deteriorating mental health.

The grief is similar to the feelings reported by victims of online romance scams. Their anger at being fleeced is often outweighed by the grief of losing the person they thought they loved, though that person never really existed.

A cure for loneliness?

As the Replika episode unfolds, there is little doubt that, for at least a subset of users, a relationship with a virtual friend or digital lover has real emotional consequences.

Many observers rush to sneer at the socially lonely fools who “catch feelings” for artificially intimate tech. But loneliness is widespread and growing. One in three people in industrialised countries are affected, and one in 12 are severely affected.

Even if these technologies are not yet as good as the “real thing” of human-to-human relationships, for many people they are better than the alternative – which is nothing.

This Replika episode stands a warning. These products evade scrutiny because most people think of them as games, not taking seriously the manufacturers’ hype that their products can ease loneliness or help users manage their feelings. When an incident like this – to everyone’s surprise – exposes such products’ success in living up to that hype, it raises tricky ethical issues.

Is it acceptable for a company to suddenly change such a product, causing the friendship, love or support to evaporate? Or do we expect users to treat artificial intimacy like the real thing: something that could break your heart at any time?

These are issues tech companies, users and regulators will need to grapple with more often. The feelings are only going to get more real, and the potential for heartbreak greater.

Read more:
Sex bots, virtual friends, VR lovers: tech is changing the way we interact, and not always for the better

Rob Brooks receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. I tried the Replika AI companion, and can see why users are falling hard. The tech raises serious ethical questions – https://theconversation.com/i-tried-the-replika-ai-companion-and-can-see-why-users-are-falling-hard-the-tech-raises-serious-ethical-questions-200257

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

Whenever interest rates went up in the past, I used to get told it wasn’t all bad news. At least it was good for some people: savers – people with money in the bank.

I hear a lot less of that these days.

If you’ve got money in the bank, you’re now lucky to earn anything at all. One in seven of the deposit dollars held by the Commonwealth bank (Australia’s biggest for deposits) is in a “transaction account” on which it no longer pays interest.

Where interest is paid, it is so tiny compared to what it was that Treasurer Jim Chalmers this month directed the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission to conduct an inquiry, using its compulsory information-gathering powers.

The last time the commission conducted such an inquiry, into mortgage rates in 2018, it gained access to nearly 40,000 documents from the big four banks and more than 7,000 from the smaller banks.

Bad news for savers: when your rates began to fall

What the commission is likely to find is that whereas transaction accounts stopped paying interest some time ago, so-called online accounts offering interest on large deposits were paying very reasonable interest – up until five years ago.

How do I know that’s the likely finding? Here’s what I found, when I graphed the Reserve Bank’s measure of the average online rate for a $10,000 deposit against the Reserve Bank’s cash rate, going back to 2010.

What the graph shows is that, until about five years ago, the online rate for big deposits moved in line with the cash rate and (as it happened) almost exactly matched it. When the cash rate was 3%, the online deposit rate was 3%, and so on.

But from 2018, the deposit rate fell away. Except for the time when both rates were close to zero during the early years of COVID, the rate paid on large deposits has stayed well below the cash rate ever since.

That’s what the official figures say. But Anna Bligh, chief executive of the Australian Banking Association, sees them differently.

“This time last year, the four major banks, nobody, no bank was offering more than 0.3% on their savings account,” she told the Australian Financial Review this month. “Right now, they’re all offering at least 4% or more. So that’s a massive increase.”

But the rates Bligh quotes aren’t the standard ones.

The Commonwealth Bank is indeed paying 4% on its so-called NetBank Saver account, but the 4% is an introductory rate for new customers only – before slipping back to 1.6% after five months.

The web comparison site Canstar finds the average big bank introductory rate on $10,000 is 3.66%, up from 0.24% before the Reserve Bank put up the cash rate by a total of 3.25 points.

But the average rate offered when the introductory bonus wears off has climbed by much less, from 0.05% to just 1.16%.

Complexity and suspected collusion makes switching hard

And some of the high-looking rates have special conditions.

The Commonwealth’s GoalSaver account also offers 4%, but only if you put in more money in each month. If you can’t, or if you make a withdrawal, the rate plummets to 0.25%.

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s inquiry is likely to find that the complex nature of the deals makes switching hard, just as does the complex nature of electricity and health insurance deals.

That’s what it found about the bank’s mortgage offerings in 2018.

It found the “opaque” nature of the offers inflated the costs of shopping around (including time and effort) and was one of the reasons why 70% of borrowers surveyed by one of the big banks said they signed up after getting just one quote.

It said the big four banks profited from the suppression of incentives to shop around and lacked strong incentives to make prices more transparent.

So why have the deposit rates offered by the big four banks dropped away?

When it came to mortgages, the ACCC suspected tacit collusion. Its 2018 report referred to a “synchronised” approach to rates seven times.

Why the banks won’t act – unless we make them

In very recent years, the banks have had less reason to offer high rates.
During the first 15 months of COVID, the Reserve Bank made available A$188 billion of funding to banks at the extraordinarily low rates of 0.25% and 0.1%.

This meant banks had less need to attract deposits, and in any event, they were overwhelmed with deposits. Elevated savings rates during COVID pushed an extra $300 billion through their doors, as worried and locked-down households sought out safe places to stash cash.

Both of these things are changing. The last of the Reserve Bank’s cheap three-year loans to banks expires mid-next year, and households are stashing less into banks than they used to.

À lire aussi :
Why do bankers behave badly? They make too much to ask questions

It is possible deposit rates might be about to improve, all the more so because the banks will be under scrutiny until the ACCC inquiry reports at the end of the year.

When announcing the inquiry, the treasurer invoked fairness. Chalmers called on the banks to “pass on the interest rate rises to savers as quickly as you pass on the interest rate rises to mortgage holders”.

But fairness has little to do with it. The banks will pay depositors more only when they need to, or when they are pressured to. Until then, for many of us, deposits will earn next to nothing, regardless of where the Reserve Bank moves rates.

So if you’ve got a savings account, why not call up your bank, quote this article – and ask them what they’re going to do about it.

Peter Martin ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. See when Australia’s biggest banks stopped paying proper interest on your savings – and what you can do about it – https://theconversation.com/see-when-australias-biggest-banks-stopped-paying-proper-interest-on-your-savings-and-what-you-can-do-about-it-200265

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy McKenry, Professor of Music, Australian Catholic University

According to an estimate from the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry, an organisation that represents the international music industry, people around the world spend on average 20.1 hours per week listening to music, up from 18.4 hours in 2021.

We have more ways to access music than at any time in history and a whole world of unfamiliar styles to explore.

The thrill of discovering new songs and new sounds can enrich people of all ages.

Except, most of the time, it doesn’t.

Our willingness to explore new or unfamiliar music declines with age. Multiple studies confirm the sentiments of US songwriter and musician Bob Seger:

Today’s music ain’t got the same soul
I like that old time rock ‘n’ roll

Read more:
Music is the soundtrack to your life – what’s on your playlist?

Exploring new music

Academics use the term “open-earedness” to describe our willingness to explore new music. Across our lives this willingness waxes and wanes.

Until around the age of 11, children are generally happy to engage with unfamiliar music. Early adolescence sees a reduction in open-earedness, but is accompanied by an intense increase in interest in music more generally. Open-earedness increases slightly during young adulthood, then declines as we age.

A major 2013 study involving more than 250,000 participants confirmed these changing behaviours. It also showed that the significance we ascribe to music after adolescence declines, and the amount of music we listen to reduces from a high point of 20% of our waking time during adolescence, to 13% in adulthood.

Shifting priorities

Researchers have different, but generally complementary, theories to account for these population-level trends. Some interpret the observed decline in music engagement in terms of psychosocial maturation.

Adolescents use music as an identity marker and engage with it to navigate social circles. Adults have developed personalities and established social groups. As such, drivers to engage with new music are lessened.

These same researchers point to age-related changes to hearing acuity – specifically a lowering tolerance for loud and high-frequency sound – as one cause for a reduced interest in new music for some people.

One explanation for the age-based reduction in music consumption simply posits that responsibility-laden adults may have less discretionary time to explore their musical interests than younger people.

Some scholars question whether there is a straightforward link between the decline in the rate of new music consumption and increasing music intolerance.

Others argue against using chronological age as a predictor for stagnant musical taste without first considering the different ways we process and use music across our lifespan. Teenagers tend to be very aware of what they are listening to. Adults who use music as motivation or accompaniment for activities such as exercise or menial tasks may be less conscious of the extent to which they actually do listen to new music.

There is consensus that people are highly likely to have their taste shaped by the music they first encounter in adolescence.

Adolescence shapes musical taste firstly because our brains are developed to the point where we can fully process what we’re hearing, and secondly because the heightened emotions of puberty create strong and lasting bonds of memory.

Read more:
Chills and thrills: why some people love music – and others don’t

Soundtrack of our lives

Neuroscience provides some fascinating insights into how and why our musical tastes develop. We know, for example, infants display an affinity to music they heard in utero.

Also, musical taste boils down to familiarity. In his book This is Your Brain on Music, neuroscientist Daniel Levitin writes:

when we love a piece of music, it reminds us of other music we have heard, and it activates memory traces of emotional times in our lives.

What we think of as our “taste” is simply a dopamine reaction arising from patterns our brain recognises which create the expectation of pleasure based on pleasures past. When we stop actively listening to new or unfamiliar music the link between the musical pattern and pleasure is severed.

It may take a decade or two to get there, but the result is, eventually, “young people’s music” will alienate and bring no pleasure.

So, are we doomed to musical obsolescence as we age? Far from it. Recent research suggests musical taste does not need to calcify but can continue to develop across our lives.

Expanding our horizons

Here are some tips if you want to train your musical taste to extend beyond the “old favourites” of youth:

1. cultivate different modes of listening including in formal (concerts), focused (solitary), casual (as an accompaniment to other activity) and social settings

2. make listening habitual

3. be curious about what you’re listening to. You can help your brain form new patterns by knowing something of the story behind the music

4. be patient and persistent. Don’t assume because you don’t immediately like an unfamiliar piece that it’s not worth listening to. The more you listen, the better your brain will be at triggering a pleasure response

5. find a friend to give you recommendations. There’s a good chance you’ll listen to music suggested to you by someone you like and admire

6. keep listening to the music you love, but be willing to revisit long-held beliefs, particularly if you describe your musical taste in the negative (such as “I hate jazz”); it’s likely these attitudes will stifle your joy

7. don’t feel you have to keep up with new music trends. We’ve 1,000 years of music to explore.

If, after making the effort, you still find new popular music hard to bear, take solace from songwriter Ben Folds, who says in his memoir:

Good pop music, truly of its moment, should throw older adults off its scent. It should clear the room of boring adults and give the kids some space.

Timothy McKenry does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why do we stop exploring new music as we get older? – https://theconversation.com/why-do-we-stop-exploring-new-music-as-we-get-older-200080

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christian Moro, Associate Professor of Science & Medicine, Bond University

Three quarters of Australians are living with herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1), an infection which causes cold sores. These tiny fluid-filled lesions and blisters sit along the mouth and nose area.

This is not the same virus that causes genital herpes, HSV-2, which is present in about 13% of people worldwide.

In most cases, the body is quite good at suppressing HSV-1 with help from the immune system. This means that not everyone with the virus knows they have it.

However, sometimes the virus can overwhelm the system and present as a cold sore, which is a highly contagious sore on the mouth.

Read more:
What causes dry lips, and how can you treat them? Does lip balm actually help?

Always at the worst time

Around 92% of us have viruses inside our systems from past infections. For most people, these are latent viruses, which do not cause any concerns until reactivated.

While we can keep these viruses from reactivating and causing any issues, most of the time, exhaustion, physical exertion, as well as psychological stress, can suppress elements of the immune system. This leaves our body weakened, and opens the door for viruses.

Common reactivation of latent viruses include those that cause glandular fever, as well as chicken pox/shingles.

When HSV-1 reactivates, it may present as cold sores.

This usually starts as a tingling, itching, or burning sensation around the mouth, lips, or nose. Fluid-filled blisters will subsequently form, which dry out and leave a crust after about a week. The scab then flakes off and will typically heal within one to two weeks without leaving a scar.

Along with cold sores, other common symptoms of an active HSV-1 infection can include fever, nausea, headaches, sore throat, or swollen glands.

Read more:
Curious Kids: how do scabs form?

Cold sores can get anyone

Viruses can be spread quickly and easily. As such, if we do have an infection, preventing its spread is important.

Babies and children are particularly vulnerable. Around 38% of mothers kiss their babies on the lips, and 14% share a spoon with them. These practices can spread HSV-1, particulary in the first four weeks after birth, when a baby has the weakest immune defences.

As a general rule, to prevent spreading any infections, always avoid kissing a baby on the lips.

Sun exposure and cool weather encourage cold sores to appear, as the conditions can dry out the lips and damage the skin, creating a favourable environment for the virus.

Some treatments are available. If you are having trouble with cold sores, you can ask a doctor or pharmacist to outline some options for antiviral medicines. These impact the virus’ ability to reactivate, replicate, and divide.

Read more:
Why are my hands and feet always cold? And when should I be worried?

So I have a cold sore, what should I do?

Unfortunately, there is no cure for the underlying virus. But if you do have a cold sore, here are some things you can do to help:

• keep your hands clean and don’t touch the sores
• avoid spicy or acidic foods to minimise burning sensations
• seek over-the-counter or prescription antiviral tablets or creams
• remain hydrated
• wear sunscreen and avoid direct sun exposure
• cover-up during cold or dry weather
• avoid kissing or sharing anything with your saliva to minimise spreading.

If you are concerned about your cold sores (for example, if the gums become swollen, the wound weeps pus, or you get a fever), seek advice from your family doctor.

While many people carry HSV-1, not everyone will get cold sores. For those who do, looking after yourself is key. Eating healthy, sleeping well, and noticing when our bodies are telling us to take a step back and relax goes a long way towards keeping latent viruses at bay.

Read more:
What position should I sleep in, and is there a ‘right’ way to sleep?

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Crusty, blistering and peeling: where do cold sores come from and what can you do about them? – https://theconversation.com/crusty-blistering-and-peeling-where-do-cold-sores-come-from-and-what-can-you-do-about-them-199885

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted February 15-19 from a sample of 1,604, gave Labor 40% of the primary vote (down two since January), the Coalition 31% (up two), the Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 5% (down one), the UAP 1% (down one), independents 9% (up one) and others 2% (steady). Two points were lost to rounding.

Resolve does not give a two party estimate until close to elections, but applying 2022 election preference flows to these primary votes gives Labor a 58-42 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since January.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s ratings slumped, with 56% (down four) who said he was doing a good job, while 31% (up six) said he was doing a poor job. That gave Albanese a net approval of +25, down ten points.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton had a net approval of -16, up one point. Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 55-23 (55-20 in January).

Labor led the Liberals by 36-32 on party that would perform best on economic management (37-29 in January). On keeping the cost of living low, Labor led by 33-24 (34-20 previously).

Between elections, Resolve asks the “independent” option of all voters without specifying an actual independent candidate. At the 2022 Victorian and federal elections, Resolve asked for specific candidates once ballot papers were printed, and the independent vote crashed both times to realistic levels.

Read more:
Victorian Labor slumps in Resolve poll but still in winning position; Labor failure on upper house reform comes back to bite

The 9% independent vote in this federal poll and the 13% independent vote in the Victorian Resolve poll below are very likely overstated.

I believe the Reserve Bank’s hiking of interest rates and high inflation are undermining consumer confidence and making it more difficult for the Labor government. Last week, Morgan’s consumer confidence was at its lowest since April 2020, although it recovered a little this week.

Labor’s lead also down in Essential poll

In Essential’s two party measure that includes undecided voters, Labor’s lead fell to 51-42 from 55-40 last fortnight. Primary votes were 33% Labor (steady), 30% Coalition (steady), 14% Greens (down three), 6% One Nation (steady), 3% UAP (up two), 8% for all Others (steady) and 8% undecided (up three).

In other results from this poll of 1,044 respondents conducted before February 20, Albanese’s ratings continued to decline from December (+33 net approval). He’s now at +19 net approval, down from +24 in January, with 53% approval and 34% disapproval. These are Albanese’s worst ratings in Essential since he became PM.

The Coalition led Labor by 32-31 on reducing government debt, and was tied 29-29 on handling rising interest rates. Labor led by 36-28 on managing the rising cost of living, and was 16-20 points ahead on insecure work, climate change and improving public services.

On the personal impact of interest rate rises, 3% said they were very positive, 14% somewhat positive, 33% no impact, 31% somewhat negative and 20% very negative. On economic conditions, 56% (up four since November) expected them to worsen in the next 12 months, 19% improve (down five) and 19% stay the same (steady).

Aston byelection to be held April 1

Last week I previewed the Aston byelection, concluding that the Liberals are likely to hold Aston. The byelection will be held on April 1.

Read more:
Liberals likely to win Aston byelection; Voice support increases in Essential poll

NSW election: March 25

It’s just over a month until the March 25 New South Wales election, but there hasn’t been a NSW voting intentions poll since January. In Essential’s NSW sub sample of over 300, Liberal Premier Dominic Perrottet’s ratings slumped to 45% approve, 42% disapprove (51-33 last fortnight), while Labor leader Chris Minns was at 37% approve, 26% disapprove (38-25 previously).

The Poll Bludger reported on Monday that Liberal upper house MP Peter Poulos had been dumped from the Liberal ticket after admitting to sharing nude photos of a Liberal colleague who had posed for Penthouse in the 1980s, perhaps explaining the drop in Perrottet’s ratings. Labor’s candidate for Monaro, David Campese, has quit.

Victorian Resolve poll: Labor has huge lead after election

A Victorian Resolve poll for The Age, conducted with the federal Resolve polls in January and February from a sample around 1,100, gave Labor 41% of the primary vote, the Coalition 30%, the Greens 13%, independents 13% and others 4%.

Resolve does not report a two party estimate except close to elections, but Labor would have about a 60-40 lead (54.9-45.1 at the November 2022 election). Labor Premier Daniel Andrews led new Liberal leader John Pesutto as preferred premier by 50-26.

US debt limit, UK local and NZ elections

I wrote for The Poll Bludger on Saturday that Democrats’ failure to lift the United States debt limit before Republicans took over the House of Representatives on January 3 could cost them, the US and the world, though we probably have until June for this issue to be resolved.

United Kingdom Labour retains a huge lead over the Conservatives with local government elections in England on May 4. On current polling, the Conservatives would lose a large number of seats, leading to more pressure on PM Rishi Sunak. Labour has recovered ground in New Zealand, but a potential right alliance of National and ACT remains ahead of Labour and the Greens.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Labor’s lead drops in Resolve and Essential polls, but they are still far ahead – https://theconversation.com/labors-lead-drops-in-resolve-and-essential-polls-but-they-are-still-far-ahead-200232

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Martin Brook, Associate Professor of Applied Geology, University of Auckland

Given the death toll, it’s important we consider the impacts of Cyclone Gabrielle sensitively. But we must also begin looking into the history of land-use and planning decisions in areas worst hit by landslides.

One such area is the beach community at Muriwai in West Auckland, where two volunteer firefighters were tragically killed in a landslide.

Several homes were cut off by slips. Residents on the steep terrain of Domain Crescent were told to evacuate on foot, rather than drive, because the land was so unstable.

Landslides can be a deadly hazard, but only when people are exposed to them. A landslide high in the Tararua mountain ranges is unlikely to pose a risk to anyone. But living near or within a landslide zone poses a clear risk.

This can be summarised as: risk = hazard x exposure x vulnerability.

Muriwai offers a case study of that equation. We already have a good understanding of the soils, landscape, geomorphology and exposure to landslide hazards – as well as the history of planning decisions that allowed houses to be built on land prone to slips.

À lire aussi :
Slippery slopes: why the Auckland storm caused so many landslides – and what can be done about it

An unstable history

Much of Muriwai, like other parts of Auckland’s west coast, is underlain by Kaihu Group sands. These are geologically young (Pleistocene age, less than 2.6 million years old) and form the high country around Muriwai.

The sands are weak and are poorly cemented, or completely uncemented, meaning there are “pore” spaces between the grains that are filled with air. During rainfall, water starts to fill these pore spaces.

Initially, this has a suction effect (negative pore pressure), whereby the water pulls the sand grains together, increasing strength. As water content increases, however, this negative pressure drops, and the sands fail and flow.

A good analogy is sand on a beach. If a little water is added, a steep-sided sand castle can be built. But if too much water is added, the castle collapses rapidly as a “flow-slide”.

A prominent geomorphological feature of Muriwai is an escarpment of soft Pleistocene Kaihu Group dune sands that forms the crenulated ridgeline immediately west of Oaia Road. These crenulations, or “embayments”, represent the headscarps (or source areas) of landslides.

The figure below is a digital elevation model (DEM) based on 2016 data gathered by the remote-sensing method LiDAR. This uses airborne laser scanning of the land surface, which removes vegetation and exposes the land surface “geomorphology” underneath.

Landslides are denoted as “L”. Houses on Domain Crescent and Motutara Road are at the foot of the escarpment, below landslide source areas. They are constructed on Kaihu sands, with some of the houses built on debris from former landslides.

Landslides and the law

In August 1965, following heavy rainfall, fatal landslides over 200 metres long occurred on consecutive days at the south-east end of Domain Crescent, destroying houses and killing two people. The landslide extent is denoted in red hash in the figure above.

A 1966 New Zealand Geographer article recorded that witnesses said the landslide moved at 90 kilometres per hour. Soon after, it was reported a Rodney District Council engineer had stated no new houses would be built on the 1965 landslide footprint. This held until the early 1980s, when gradual house construction began again.

The timing of this new construction (denoted by the yellow arrows in the figure below) is intriguing. In 1981, the Local Government Amendment Act (section 641A) allowed councils to issue building permits for houses on unstable land prone to erosion, subsidence, slippage or inundation. Councils were also absolved of any civil liability.

Concern about the effects of section 641A was highlighted in 1986 by highly respected engineers Nick Rogers and Don Taylor in a paper published in New Zealand Engineering magazine, titled “Safe as houses”. While the Building Act 1991 and 2004 have improved matters, we are still dealing with section 641A’s legacy.

The Earthquake Commission (EQC) Act in 1993 was an important step forward for natural disaster insurance. But it stipulated that compensation can be refused if a house was constructed on unstable land.

In the 1990s and early 2000s, the Rodney District (which includes Muriwai) was ranked first nationally in having EQC claims rejected on the basis that houses had been built on existing unstable ground. The then EQC chief executive, David Middleton ONZM, appeared on the TV show Fair Go explaining this.

Real and moral hazards

No amount of geotechnical expertise or planning control can produce absolutely zero risk. But communities should be able to assume potential hazards are identified and they are not exposed to them.

Geomorphological mapping of landforms using high-resolution LiDAR DEMs can prove useful in planning and decision-making, as well as landslide susceptibility mapping. This is where a range of parameters – slope angle, soil type, thickness, rock type, vegetation cover and land use – are layered on top of the DEM, within a geographical information system.

The parameters are statistically modelled and a landslide susceptibility map is produced. In many parts of New Zealand, this map will probably not bring news some homeowners and land developers want to hear.

But such a map can be useful for hazard zoning. As the tragic events in Muriwai have shown over the years, the set-back of buildings below slopes is sometimes just as important as set-back from cliff edges at the top of slopes.

À lire aussi :
Who moves and who pays? Managed retreat is hard, but lessons from the past can guide us

Other mitigation strategies include real-time monitoring of risk either in-situ or by satellite. Ultimately, costly slope engineering can be a solution.

However, as Rogers and Taylor wrote in 1986, property owners are often willing to accept risk until the hazard eventuates. In other cases, a “moral hazard” exists where there aren’t incentives to guard against risk because of protection from its consequences by insurance or EQC coverage.

Unfortunately, this risk can also tragically extend to third parties. Whether such risk-taking behaviour continues after the Auckland floods and Cyclone Gabrielle remains to be seen.

But understanding landscape geomorphology and using it as the basis for more resilient planning so we can truly build back better, or undertake managed retreat, is now imperative.

Martin Brook receives funding from EQC, MBIE and the Royal Society of New Zealand.

– ref. Landslides and law: Cyclone Gabrielle raises serious questions about where we’ve been allowed to build – https://theconversation.com/landslides-and-law-cyclone-gabrielle-raises-serious-questions-about-where-weve-been-allowed-to-build-200250

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Wark, Conjoint Professor, School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Newcastle

In late 2020 as we hid from COVID behind the moat of “fortress Australia”, we started to hear that in some people, COVID symptoms persisted for months. They were called “long haulers” or had “long COVID”.

Contrary to what we’d expected, it wasn’t just affecting people’s lungs or breathing. Long haulers were experiencing an enormous range of other symptoms: fatigue that was worse after activity, muscle aches and pains, headache, and cognitive dysfunction or brain fog.

A parliamentary inquiry is currently investigating Australia’s response to long COVID – patient experiences, the health system’s response and what the latest research shows.

It’s now clear we got some key things wrong about long COVID earlier in the pandemic. Three years in, and with an estimated 65 million people affected by long COVID, here are five things we now know or suspect about the condition.

1. It can take months to recover lung function – and some people never do

We now know full recovery of lung function is not guaranteed for people with long COVID: one in five still complain of severe breathlessness and 10% have severe functional impairment.

Among people admitted to hospital, studies report impaired lung function, abnormal chest scans, impaired capacity to exercise and persistent breathlessness months after leaving hospital, especially for those who needed breathing support in ICU.

In those people who where hospitalised with COVID-19 pneumonia and who have persistent breathlessness, pulmonary (lung) rehabilitation improves quality of life and exercise tolerance. While this evidence is not strong, it is consistent, across one randomised control trial and seven observational studies.

We need a national approach to assess all patients who survive hospitalisation, to determine if they are still breathless and ensuring they have access to pulmonary rehabilitation.

2. COVID can increase the risk of or worsen chronic diseases

Early on, we failed to understand COVID would increase the risk and worsen other chronic diseases.

Since then, large population studies have clearly documented people with long COVID are at increased risk of stroke and heart disease and an increased risk of diabetes.

These problems are more likely in those who are socially disadvantaged, and unable to have sufficient time to recover.

Read more:
Tested positive to COVID? Go easy on yourself – try not to rush back to work or exercise

3. Long COVID isn’t a single disorder

We initially thought of long COVID as a single disorder. We now know it’s a complex condition, caused by a number of different factors. Emerging evidence suggests this includes:

• impaired immunity

• the development of autoantibodies (where the immune system attacks the self)

• the persistence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus

• microclots (small blood clots and/or damage to blood vessels).

Studies investigating these causes are still small and observational – and these factors are likely overlap and vary among sufferers. The only way to address these issues will be with further research.

A number of treatments are advocated, but they all need to be tested in properly controlled trials, too few of which are in progress.

4. We need to resource treatment adequately

In the past we had not devoted sufficient resources to treat post-infectious or immune syndromes such as myalgic encephalitis or chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS). These syndromes are defined by excessive fatigue, which worsens after exertion, and include cognitive impairment or brain fog.

These symptoms are responsible for much of the disease and disability associated with long COVID in many people and are often more prevalent than respiratory problems.

Severe cases of long COVID, ME/CFS and other post-infectious syndromes may include a condition known as POTS (postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome), where an excessive heart rate results in falls in blood pressure with even mild exertion.

Read more:
Fatigue after COVID is way more than just feeling tired. 5 tips on what to do about it

Unlike survivors of COVID pneumonia, people with POTS are much less likely to benefit from traditional exercise-based rehabilitation programmes. Such programs may even exacerbate their symptoms.

Instead, approaches are proposed that have been previously applied to ME/CFS and POTS are proposed, including exercise pacing, and medication regimes. However, there is a lack of good evidence, and while trials are underway, they are few, especially in Australia.

5. COVID shouldn’t be dismissed as a psychological problem

Finally, there has been the problem of attributing long COVID to poor mental health. While worsened mental health often accompanies chronic disease, this link for long COVID has been overstated and we are at risk of dismissing the physiological problem.

A large population study of more than 1.3 million people following COVID demonstrated that while there was an initial increase in anxiety and depression, it was transient, unlike features of long COVID such cognitive dysfunction.

COVID treatment has focused on the acute life-threatening illness and largely ignored the long-term consequences. But long COVID isn’t a problem that will disappear. It requires investigation into the illness it causes, robust clinical trials into treatments and effective models of care. This is not currently happening.

Read more:
Haven’t had COVID or a vaccine dose in the past six months? Consider getting a booster

Peter Wark receives funding from NHMRC Australia, MRFF and NIH.

– ref. We got some key things wrong about long COVID. Here are 5 things we’ve learnt – https://theconversation.com/we-got-some-key-things-wrong-about-long-covid-here-are-5-things-weve-learnt-199974

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Legge, Professor of Wildlife Ecology, Australian National University

How we manage pet cats in our suburbs is in the spotlight. As the estimated number of pet cats in Australia passes 5 million, people are increasingly aware of the damage cats do to wildlife.

One-third of owners already keep their cats securely contained 24 hours a day. This has major benefits for cat welfare and prevents cats killing and disturbing wildlife. But that leaves the other 3.5 million or so pet cats free to roam for at least part of the day or night.

In Australia, local government is responsible for regulating our feline pets, but little is known about how this works in practice. We sent a survey to every local council in Australia to understand their approaches to managing pet cats and how these could be improved. We received responses from 240 councils (45%).

Councils across Australia reported managing pet cats is a challenge. But many are adopting regulations that to help protect local wildlife and improve the wellbeing of pet cats. However, state laws, especially in Western Australia and New South Wales, are making it difficult for local councils to manage pet cats well.

Cats kill more than their owners realise

Why the big deal? Many cat owners think their moggy is blameless. “I don’t think my cat goes out that much and I never see any dead animals,” they often say. This is largely untrue.

Research shows the impact of pet cats is much bigger than people realise. Many cats don’t bring home what they kill, or bring back only a very small proportion (15% on average), so their owners aren’t aware of the majority of the wildlife toll. Radio-tracking studies have shown a large proportion of cats are out on adventures when their owners thought they were inside.

On average, each roaming, hunting pet cat in Australia kills 40 native reptiles, 38 native birds and 32 native mammals per year.

Read more:
One cat, one year, 110 native animals: lock up your pet, it’s a killing machine

Our suburbs are now home to around 55 cats per square kilometre. That adds up to about 6,000 native animals killed per square kilometre per year in our suburbs alone. The national wildlife death toll from pet cats is well over 300 million native animals per year.

Even when roaming cats don’t kill animals, they have negative impacts on wildlife by spreading diseases and because wildlife must spend more time hiding or escaping instead of feeding and caring for young.

Read more:
Cats carry diseases that can be deadly to humans, and it’s costing Australia $6 billion every year

As well as hunting wildlife, roaming pet cats can increase feral cat populations if unwanted litters are abandoned.

Seeing wildlife, like blue-tongued lizards and fairywrens, in our gardens and local parks is something we all cherish. How we manage pet cats can either jeopardise our co-existing wildlife or help to safeguard it. So we set out to examine how pet cats are being managed across the country.

Read more:
Koalas, parrots, frogs and orchids share our cities. Their fate depends on protecting each one’s habitat, not just 30% of all land

What are councils doing about it?

Our survey found almost all local councils require pet cats to be microchipped. Three-quarters require them to be registered. Just over half require desexing and limit the number of cats that can be kept per household.

These approaches are very important to manage pet cats and constrain their numbers and should be extended to all local government areas. However, these measures do not prevent pet cats roaming.

Concern about the impacts of roaming cats has led almost one-third of councils to introduce cat-free areas, cat curfews and containment requirements at all or some places in their local government area. Where adequately policed, these measures appear to be working.

These approaches are most common in city areas of the ACT, Victoria and South Australia, and on some islands. The number of local government areas using this approach has grown markedly over the past five years, partly in response to growing awareness of the impacts of pet cats on wildlife.

For example, Adelaide Hills Council (SA) and Victoria’s Knox City Council brought in 24-hour containment last year. There are plans to do the same on Phillip Island (Victoria) later this year. Bruny Island (Tasmania) and Kangaroo Island (SA) both require cats to be contained. In NSW, Tweed Shire has designated some recently built and future suburbs, which are next to bushland with high conservation value, as cat-free.

Christmas Island has gone further. All pet cats are desexed and the community has agreed not to bring in any more, so their numbers on the island are gradually dwindling.

Read more:
Why do our dogs and cats bring us dead animals?

Some state laws stand in the way of better protection

Many local councils would also like to adopt containment regulations and no-cat areas as part of strategies to protect local wildlife. However, the overarching laws on domestic animal management are set at the state level. If these laws don’t allow local government to set and then police cat containment bylaws, then the local councils can be hamstrung.

Local councils in WA and NSW complained most often about this situation. They want changes to state laws to make it easier for them to set and police local rules about cat containment or cat prohibition.

In SA, local governments noted inconsistencies in cat containment provisions between councils make implementation and enforcement challenging. A statewide approach using the SA Dog and Cat Management Act would be more effective.

To support fair and effective management of pet cats we recommend all states and territories adopt strong and nationally consistent legislation to enable responsible pet cat management.

This should be supported by enhanced community awareness programs and support for owners and their pets to make the transition to a new, contained lifestyle. Outcomes for local wildlife and for cat welfare and health should also be monitored.

Protecting wildlife and caring for our delightful pets can both be achieved if we rethink what it is to be a cat owner and support local government to manage these issues for the whole community.

Sarah Legge received funding for cat-related research from the National Environmental Science Program through the Threatened Species Recovery Hub, and is contracted by the Commonwealth Government to help draft a revised feral cat threat abatement plan. She is a member of the Feral Cat Taskforce; a member of the Biodiversity Council; and a member of the Conservation and Science Committee of the Invasive Species Council.

Georgia Garrard receives funding funding from the Australian Research Council, Ian Potter Foundation and the South Australian Government. She has previously received funding for cat-related research from the National Environmental Science Program through the Threatened Species Recovery Hub, and from the Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment. She chairs Birdlife Australia’s Research and Conservation Committee and is a member of Zoos Victoria’s Scientific Advisory Committee.

Jaana Dielenberg is the owner of a happy indoor cat. She works for the Biodiversity Council. She was previously part of research cited in this article which received funding from the Threatened Species Recovery Hub of the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program (Phase 1).

John Woinarski received funding for cat-related research from the National Environmental Science Program through the Threatened Species Recovery Hub, and is contracted by the Commonwealth Government to help draft a revised feral cat threat abatement plan. He is a member of the Feral Cat Taskforce, a Director of the Australian Wildlife Conservancy, a member of the Biodiversity Council, and is a member of Zoos Victoria’s Scientific Advisory Committee

Tida Nou received funding for cat-related research from the National Environmental Science Program through the Threatened Species Recovery Hub. She is a member of the National Domestic Cat Management Working Group.

– ref. Herding cats: councils’ efforts to protect wildlife from roaming pets are hampered by state laws – https://theconversation.com/herding-cats-councils-efforts-to-protect-wildlife-from-roaming-pets-are-hampered-by-state-laws-200266