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A ‘no’ win will make it harder for government to tackle Indigenous disadvantage: Albanese

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The government’s efforts to tackle Indigenous disadvantage will not be as effective if Saturday’s referendum fails, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has said.

Albanese has also reconfirmed that if there is a “no” vote he will not seek to legislate a Voice.

The government would respect the outcome, he said on Sunday. “If Australians vote “no”, I don’t believe that it would be appropriate to then go and say, oh, well you’ve had your say, but we’re going to legislate anyway”.

As the campaign enters its final days, the ABC’s “poll of the polls” had “yes” at an average of 41.2%, and “no” on 58.8%. To pass, the referendum needs a national majority and to win in a majority of states.

Albanese told a rally in Queanbeyan he would be visiting Broken Hill, Port Lincoln, Mutitjulu, Uluru and Melbourne, Hobart, Perth, Adelaide and Sydney in the final stretch.

Asked on the ABC whether he’d walk away from the Voice altogether if there was a no vote, he was unequivocal, saying “correct.”

“What you do when we’re talking about the Voice is listening. And Indigenous Australians have said they want a Voice that’s enshrined [in the Constitution].

“What they don’t want to do is what they’ve done time and time again, which is to be a part of establishing representative organisations only to see, for opportunistic reasons, a government to come in and just abolish it.”

The federal opposition is committed to legislating local and regional Voices.

Albanese said the government was already undertaking measures to combat Indigenous disadvantage but, in the event of a “no” vote, “it won’t be as effective as having a body, a Voice to be listened to”.

“But we’ll continue to do things like, we’re replacing the remote jobs program with a program for employment that actually creates real jobs with real wages. We’ll continue to invest in justice reinvestment, looking at programs like Bourke that work effectively. We’ll continue to invest in community health.

“But what a Voice will do is provide for an opportunity for us to replicate the success stories. There are success stories out there. Success stories where Indigenous kids are going to school, where health programs are being improved.”

Albanese said the referendum was being watched internationally. If it was carried, “it will be seen that Australia has come to terms with our history, that we’re a mature nation”.

The debate was about “whether we’re a country that looks for hope and optimism and for the future, or whether we shrink in on ourselves”.

But if the referendum went down, “we will go out there and explain the position”.

Deputy opposition leader Sussan Ley told Sky: “Whatever the result is on Saturday it will be bad, divisive and unhappy for Australians the next day. So we do need to bring the country together.”

The Conversation

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. A ‘no’ win will make it harder for government to tackle Indigenous disadvantage: Albanese – https://theconversation.com/a-no-win-will-make-it-harder-for-government-to-tackle-indigenous-disadvantage-albanese-215232

After a shocking Hamas assault on Israel, both sides brace for the devastating fallout

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Eyal Mayroz, Senior Lecturer in Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Sydney

Almost 50 years ago to the day, Israel failed to anticipate the outbreak of the 1973 Yom Kippur war – a shock attack on its borders by a coalition of Arab states.

Now, it appears the country’s intelligence apparatuses have fallen victim to a false sense of security once again.

The belief, widely shared across Israeli society, that the Hamas militant group would avoid a large-scale military confrontation with Israel to protect itself and spare further suffering and harm to the residents of Gaza was shattered by a surprise assault on Saturday morning by air, land and sea.

The attack began with a barrage of more than 2,000 rockets fired into Israel. Under the cover of the rockets, a large-scale, carefully coordinated, ground operation set out from Gaza and attacked more than 20 Israeli towns and army bases adjacent to the strip.

Israeli losses, estimated presently at more than 250 dead and as many as 1,500 wounded, are certain to increase in the coming hours and days.

Israel’s military reserves have commenced a massive mobilisation as aerial bombings of Hamas installations and command posts in Gaza are being carried out. More than 230 Palestinian casualties have been reported so far in Gaza, with 1,700 wounded.

Calculations behind the attack

As in the case of the Yom Kippur war, numerous analyses and investigations will be undertaken in the coming weeks, months and years on the intelligence, operational and political failures that allowed the Hamas attack to unfold. The assault was apparently initially undetected by Israel, and then for hours met with either insufficient or unprepared Israeli forces.

Similar to the 1973 war, the purposefully chosen timing of a Sabbath and the Jewish holiday of Sukkot provide initial, though very partial, clues to the breakdown.

Hamas’ strategic calculations in launching the attack are uncertain at this stage. However, the assured severity of Israel’s retaliation against the group – and as a consequence, the civilian population in Gaza – makes it likely that considerations beyond just tit-for-tat revenge were at play.




Read more:
Can the world stop Israel and Hamas from committing war crimes? 7 questions answered about international law


Kidnapping Israelis for prisoner swaps with Hamas militants jailed in Israel, for instance, has been among the most highly desired objectives of the group’s military operations in the past.

In 2011, a single Israel soldier, Gilad Shalit, who had been held captive in Gaza since 2006, was exchanged for more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners. Among these prisoners was Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’ current leader in Gaza, who had served 22 years in an Israeli jail.

The reports of dozens of Israelis being taken captive in this weekend’s assault – many of them civilians – suggest this may have been a central motive behind the attack. An unknown number of hostages held for hours by Hamas militants in two Israeli southern towns were later freed by Israeli special forces.

Another broader objective for Hamas may have been to undermine the ongoing negotiations between the US and Saudi Arabia on an agreement to normalise relations between the kingdom and Israel.

Thwarting these talks would be a significant boon for Iran, a key backer of Hamas, and its allies. While Tehran has said it supports the attacks by Hamas against Israel, it remains uncertain at this point whether Iran or Hezbollah (the militant group in Lebanon that has a growing partnership with Hamas) would open additional fronts against Israel in the coming days.

Any escalation in the conflict from either Iran or Lebanon would be highly problematic for Israel. The same would apply if the war with Hamas further exacerbates the already high tensions and violent clashes between Israel and Palestinian militant groups in the West Bank.

What could happen next?

Named “Iron Swords,” Israel’s retaliatory offensive against Hamas in Gaza is likely to last a long time. The challenges it faces are massive.

Along with the need to restore the trust of the Israeli public and resurrect Israel’s smashed military deterrence against Hamas and other foes, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government will likely have to deal with other complexities:

  • the fate of potentially dozens of Israeli hostages
  • the significantly elevated risks for Israel’s forces should a ground incursion be carried out
  • and the threats of escalation on other fronts, including Lebanon, the West Bank, and mixed Jewish-Palestinian cities inside Israel.

International support for an aggressive operation could also become difficult to retain amid a mounting toll of civilian Palestinian casualties.

The current round of violence has barely started, but it could end up being the bloodiest in decades – perhaps since the war between Israel and the Palestinians in Lebanon during the 1980s.

As noted, Israelis will consider it critically important to reclaim their country’s military deterrence capabilities against Hamas, which in the eyes of many, may necessitate a military takeover of Gaza. This would bring more devastating outcomes for Gaza’s civilian population.

For many Palestinians, this weekend’s events offered Israelis a small taste of what their own lives have been like under decades of occupation. However, the early celebrations will likely soon turn into anger and frustration as the numbers of Palestinian civilian casualties will continue to rise. Violence begets violence.

In the short and medium terms, the trauma of Hamas’ surprise attack is bound to have momentous consequences for Israel’s domestic politics.

It’s still too early to assess the likely many long-term impacts of the attack on Israelis and their sense of security. But one thing is clear: the already challenging prospects for the building of trust between the Israeli and Palestinian peoples have just suffered a devastating blow.




Read more:
30 years after Arafat-Rabin handshake, clear flaws in Oslo Accords doomed peace talks to failure


In his 2022 memoir, Bibi: My Story, Netanyahu wrote about his decision during Israel’s “Pillar of Defense” operation against Hamas in 2012 to avoid an Israeli ground assault in Gaza.

Such an attack, he warned, could lead to many hundreds of Israeli Defence Force casualties and many thousands of Palestinian casualties – something he was adamantly against. He did authorise ground incursions on two other occasions (operations “Cast Lead” in 2008 and “Protective Edge” in 2014). But his cautious tendencies prevailed in other cases, at times, in the face of strong pressure.

Arguably, this weekend’s national trauma and the radical make-up of Netanyahu’s right-wing government will make it very difficult for him to show similar restraint in the coming days.

The Conversation

Eyal Mayroz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. After a shocking Hamas assault on Israel, both sides brace for the devastating fallout – https://theconversation.com/after-a-shocking-hamas-assault-on-israel-both-sides-brace-for-the-devastating-fallout-215230

After a shocking Hamas assault on Israel, both sides brace for the devastating fall-out

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Eyal Mayroz, Senior Lecturer in Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Sydney

Almost 50 years ago to the day, Israel failed to anticipate the outbreak of the 1973 Yom Kippur war – a shock attack on its borders by a coalition of Arab states.

Now, it appears the country’s intelligence apparatuses have fallen victim to a false sense of security once again.

The belief, widely shared across Israeli society, that the Hamas militant group would avoid a large-scale military confrontation with Israel to protect itself and spare further suffering and harm to the residents of Gaza was shattered by a surprise assault on Saturday morning by air, land and sea.

The attack began with a barrage of more than 2,000 rockets fired into Israel. Under the cover of the rockets, a large-scale, carefully coordinated, ground operation set out from Gaza and attacked more than 20 Israeli towns and army bases adjacent to the strip.

Israeli losses, estimated presently at more than 250 dead and as many as 1,500 wounded, are certain to increase in the coming hours and days.

Israel’s military reserves have commenced a massive mobilisation as aerial bombings of Hamas installations and command posts in Gaza are being carried out. More than 230 Palestinian casualties have been reported so far in Gaza, with 1,700 wounded.

Calculations behind the attack

As in the case of the Yom Kippur war, numerous analyses and investigations will be undertaken in the coming weeks, months and years on the intelligence, operational and political failures that allowed the Hamas attack to unfold. The assault was apparently initially undetected by Israel, and then for hours met with either insufficient or unprepared Israeli forces.

Similar to the 1973 war, the purposefully chosen timing of a Sabbath and the Jewish holiday of Sukkot provide initial, though very partial, clues to the breakdown.

Hamas’ strategic calculations in launching the attack are uncertain at this stage. However, the assured severity of Israel’s retaliation against the group – and as a consequence, the civilian population in Gaza – makes it likely that considerations beyond just tit-for-tat revenge were at play.




Read more:
Can the world stop Israel and Hamas from committing war crimes? 7 questions answered about international law


Kidnapping Israelis for prisoner swaps with Hamas militants jailed in Israel, for instance, has been among the most highly desired objectives of the group’s military operations in the past.

In 2011, a single Israel soldier, Gilad Shalit, who had been held captive in Gaza since 2006, was exchanged for more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners. Among these prisoners was Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’ current leader in Gaza, who had served 22 years in an Israeli jail.

The reports of dozens of Israelis being taken captive in this weekend’s assault – many of them civilians – suggest this may have been a central motive behind the attack. An unknown number of hostages held for hours by Hamas militants in two Israeli southern towns were later freed by Israeli special forces.

Another broader objective for Hamas may have been to undermine the ongoing negotiations between the US and Saudi Arabia on an agreement to normalise relations between the kingdom and Israel.

Thwarting these talks would be a significant boon for Iran, a key backer of Hamas, and its allies. While Tehran has said it supports the attacks by Hamas against Israel, it remains uncertain at this point whether Iran or Hezbollah (the militant group in Lebanon that has a growing partnership with Hamas) would open additional fronts against Israel in the coming days.

Any escalation in the conflict from either Iran or Lebanon would be highly problematic for Israel. The same would apply if the war with Hamas further exacerbates the already high tensions and violent clashes between Israel and Palestinian militant groups in the West Bank.

What could happen next?

Named “Iron Swords,” Israel’s retaliatory offensive against Hamas in Gaza is likely to last a long time. The challenges it faces are massive.

Along with the need to restore the trust of the Israeli public and resurrect Israel’s smashed military deterrence against Hamas and other foes, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government will likely have to deal with other complexities:

  • the fate of potentially dozens of Israeli hostages
  • the significantly elevated risks for Israel’s forces should a ground incursion be carried out
  • and the threats of escalation on other fronts, including Lebanon, the West Bank, and mixed Jewish-Palestinian cities inside Israel.

International support for an aggressive operation could also become difficult to retain amid a mounting toll of civilian Palestinian casualties.

The current round of violence has barely started, but it could end up being the bloodiest in decades – perhaps since the war between Israel and the Palestinians in Lebanon during the 1980s.

As noted, Israelis will consider it critically important to reclaim their country’s military deterrence capabilities against Hamas, which in the eyes of many, may necessitate a military takeover of Gaza. This would bring more devastating outcomes for Gaza’s civilian population.

For many Palestinians, this weekend’s events offered Israelis a small taste of what their own lives have been like under decades of occupation. However, the early celebrations will likely soon turn into anger and frustration as the numbers of Palestinian civilian casualties will continue to rise. Violence begets violence.

In the short and medium terms, the trauma of Hamas’ surprise attack is bound to have momentous consequences for Israel’s domestic politics.

It’s still too early to assess the likely many long-term impacts of the attack on Israelis and their sense of security. But one thing is clear: the already challenging prospects for the building of trust between the Israeli and Palestinian peoples have just suffered a devastating blow.




Read more:
30 years after Arafat-Rabin handshake, clear flaws in Oslo Accords doomed peace talks to failure


In his 2022 memoir, Bibi: My Story, Netanyahu wrote about his decision during Israel’s “Pillar of Defense” operation against Hamas in 2012 to avoid an Israeli ground assault in Gaza.

Such an attack, he warned, could lead to many hundreds of Israeli Defence Force casualties and many thousands of Palestinian casualties – something he was adamantly against. He did authorise ground incursions on two other occasions (operations “Cast Lead” in 2008 and “Protective Edge” in 2014). But his cautious tendencies prevailed in other cases, at times, in the face of strong pressure.

Arguably, this weekend’s national trauma and the radical make-up of Netanyahu’s right-wing government will make it very difficult for him to show similar restraint in the coming days.

The Conversation

Eyal Mayroz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. After a shocking Hamas assault on Israel, both sides brace for the devastating fall-out – https://theconversation.com/after-a-shocking-hamas-assault-on-israel-both-sides-brace-for-the-devastating-fall-out-215230

RSF hails decision to award Nobel Peace Prize to Iranian journalist

Pacific Media Watch

Reporters Without Borders (RSF) has hailed the news that Narges Mohammadi — an Iranian journalist RSF has been defending for years — has been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for her “fight against the oppression of women in Iran,” her courage and determination.

Persecuted by the Iranian authorities since the late 1990s for her work, and imprisoned again since November 2021, she must be freed at once, RSF declared in a statement.

“Speak to save Iran” is the title of one of the letters published by Mohammadi from Evin prison, near Tehran, where she has been serving a sentence of 10 years and 9 months in prison since 16 November 2021.

She has also been sentenced to hundreds of lashes. The maker of a documentary entitled White Torture and the author of a book of the same name, Mohammadi has never stopped denouncing the sexual violence inflicted on women prisoners in Iran.

It is this fight against the oppression of women that the Nobel Committee has just saluted by awarding the Peace Prize to this 51-year-old journalist and human rights activist, the former vice-president of the Defenders of Human Rights Centre, the Iranian human rights organisation that was created by Shirin Ebadi, the Iranian lawyer who was herself awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2003.

It is because of this fight that Mohammadi has been hounded by the Iranian authorities, who continue to persecute her in prison.

She has been denied visits and telephone calls since 12 April 2022, cutting her off from the world.


White Torture: The infamy of solitary confinement in Iran with Narges Mohammadi.

New charges
At the same time, the authorities in Evin prison have brought new charges to keep her in detention.

On August 4, her jail term was increased by a year after the publication of another of her letters about violence against fellow women detainees.

Mohammadi was awarded the RSF Prize for Courage on 12 December 2023. At the award ceremony in Paris, her two children, whom she has not seen for eight years, read one of the letters she wrote to them from prison.

“In this country, amid all the suffering, all the fears and all the hopes, and when, after years of imprisonment, I am behind bars again and I can no longer even hear the voices of my children, it is with a heart full of passion, hope and vitality, full of confidence in the achievement of freedom and justice in my country that I will spend time in prison,” she wrote.

She ended the letter with a call to keep alive “the hope of victory”.

RSF secretary-general Christophe Deloire said:

“It is with immense emotion that I learn that the Nobel Peace Prize is being awarded to the journalist and human rights defender Narges Mohammadi.

At Reporters Without Borders (RSF), we have been fighting for her for years, alongside her husband and her two children, and with Shirin Ebadi. The Nobel Peace Prize will obviously be decisive in obtaining her release.”

On June 7, RSF referred the unacceptable conditions in which Mohammadi is being detained to all of the relevant UN human rights bodies.

During an oral update to the UN Human Rights Council on July 5, the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on the Islamic Republic of Iran expressed concern over the “continued detention of human rights defenders and lawyers defending the protesters, and at least 17 journalists”.

It is thanks to Mohammadi’s journalistic courage that the world knows what is happening in the Islamic Republic of Iran’s prisons, where 20 journalists are currently detained.

They included three other women: Elaheh Mohammadi, Niloofar Hamedi and Vida Rabbani.

Pacific Media Watch collaborates with Reporters Without Borders.

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Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Palestine solidarity group calls on NZ to end ‘blind eye’ policy over brutal Israeli occupation

Asia Pacific Report

The New Zealand government bears heavy responsibility for loss of life of Palestinians and Israelis in the latest fighting in Israel/Palestine and must revisit its policy, says the Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa (PSNA) national chair John Minto.

“Whatever the eventual outcome of the Hamas attacks on Israel today [Saturday], the New Zealand government bears heavy responsibility for the loss of life of Palestinians and Israelis,” he said in a statement.

“Like other Western countries, New Zealand has failed to hold Israel to account for its multiple crimes, including war crimes, against the Palestinian people, day after day, year after year and decade after decade.

“We have ignored human rights reports of Israel’s apartheid policies. Our government has been looking the other way.”

Hamas launched a large-scale military operation “Al-Aqsa Flood” against Israel, describing it as in response to the desecration of Al-Aqsa Mosque and increased settler violence.

The group running the besieged Gaza Strip (population 2.1 million) said it had fired thousands of rockets and sent fighters into Israel. Early reports said at least 5 Israelis, had been killed, 35 people  taken captive and more than 500 had been wounded and taken to hospitals.

Repeated Israeli attacks
Minto described the Hamas attacks as “understandable”.

“Over recent months Western countries have turned a blind eye to the brutality of the Israeli army and settler groups engaging in repeated attacks on Palestinian towns and villages and the killing of civilians and children,” he said.

“The result is now playing out in more violence initiated by Israel’s brutal occupation — the longest military occupation in modern history. The occupation includes Israel’s 17-year-old blockade of the Gaza strip — the largest open-air prison in the world.”

Al Jazeera reports that almost 250 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli occupation forces so far this year.

“New Zealand must reassess its policy on the Middle East and demand Israel adopt a timetable to implement international law and United Nations resolutions.”

“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is finished. Politically and otherwise,” declared Al Jazeera political analyst Marwan Bishara, who says Israel has never learnt from history of colonialism.

“His arrogance has finally caught with him. No matter how many Palestinians this corrupt opportunist kills before his final downfall, he will go down in utter humiliation.

“Israel gets a glimpse of the real future days after Netanyahu cavalierly showed us at the United Nations future maps of the new Middle East centered around Israel — with no Palestine existence.”

Israel launched air strikes on Gaza in retaliation in an operation called “Iron Swords”.

Al Jazeera political analyst Marwan Bishara
Al Jazeera political analyst Marwan Bishara . . . Israel has never learnt from the history of colonialism and the suffering of a third generation of Palestinians in the Gaza “open prison”. Image: Al Jazeera screenshot/APR
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Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

‘No’ campaign is dominating the Voice debate among Chinese Australians on WeChat: new research

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Fan Yang, Research fellow at Melbourne Law School, the University of Melbourne and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision-Making and Society., The University of Melbourne

Some 1.4 million Australians are of Chinese ancestry, or about 5.5% of the population. Given the size of the community, it will be an important voting bloc in the upcoming referendum on a Voice to Parliament for First Nations people.

But while the government and the “yes” and “no” campaigns are translating some information into Chinese, it appears very little is gaining traction in the Chinese Australian online community.

According to our research, the Voice referendum has garnered limited attention on WeChat, the popular Chinese messaging app, compared to discussions on other issues, such as immigration, the economy and property prices.

As we draw closer to the referendum, we’ve also seen right-wing political rhetoric and misinformation come to dominate what little online discussion there has been.

Our research found the “no” campaign was resonating much more than “yes” on WeChat, particularly among conservative voices within the community. Among the 339 comments we collected and analysed, the vast majority (about 98.5%) leaned towards voting “no”, while just five comments unequivocally expressed support for the “yes” side.




Read more:
Friday essay: Australia may ban WeChat – but for many Chinese Australians, it’s their ‘lifeline’


Translated media reports

Our study used a tool called WeCapture to collect and archive public posts and comments on WeChat related to the referendum.

Between February and September, we collected more than 110 public posts, two short videos and 339 public comments in total. None of the posts had more than 20,000 views – showing how little the debate has resonated with Chinese Australians.

We were only able to analyse public WeChat accounts, as opposed to private discussions between individuals or in groups. As a result, commercial media accounts run by Chinese migrants, such as sydtoday, meltoday, AFNDaily, and melvlife, played a pivotal role in shaping these discussions.

Many of these posts were translated news reports on the Voice from the English-language media. These posts covered a broad range of topics, including explanations on the scope of the proposed Voice, analysis of Australian public sentiment about the Voice and reports on “yes” and “no” campaign rallies.

We found these media accounts sometimes editorialised the translated English sources to align with readers’ expectations and the accounts’ business imperatives. For instance, in the screengrab of a WeChat post below, the headline reads:

Breaking news! After 24 years, Australia has announced: an immediate mandatory nationwide referendum will be held. Everyone must participate. Australia is about to undergo significant changes.

This translation conveys a sense of emergency and ambiguity to entice WeChat users to click on the link.

Posts from the official groups

Other posts came from the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC), the Victorian Labor Party, the Yes Campaign Alliance and other content producers, also translated into Mandarin. These appeared on influential WeChat media accounts such as sydtoday and Mel_life.

The AEC posted a series of sponsored articles to explain the Voice and the voting procedure (as seen in the post below). The AEC posts were much more formal and official sounding than most public posts on WeChat.

The “yes” campaign has also embedded image banners within WeChat posts, such as the one below, authorised by Dean Parkin, director of the Yes Campaign Alliance.

And in a short video posted the Victorian Labor Party, Carina Garland, the MP for Chisholm, conducted an interview with Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus to explain the Voice referendum and its significance. The video, which features Chinese subtitles and is specifically targeting Chinese Australians, only received 20 likes and was shared just 25 times. It also got no comments from WeChat users.

Posts from ‘no’ campaigners

In our research, we found WeChat users who were leaning towards a “no” vote had many concerns, including:

  • fears the Voice could somehow disempower the Chinese Australian community

  • the perception taxes could increase due to Labor’s “leftist politics”

  • skepticism towards the Albanese government

  • fears the Voice could lead to “racial divide” and “apartheid” in Australia

  • and the prevalence of conspiracy theories associated with white supremacy ideologies.

One account named YamiChew has published a series of “no” campaign videos. The profile says the owner of the account transitioned from a professional career in Beijing to an immigrant life in Melbourne.

The account underwent a notable transformation at the end of September, from posting videos of the family dog to advocating for the “no” campaign. Compared to most WeChat posts about the referendum, YamiChew’s first video gained significant traction on the platform, with over 10,000 reposts, 1,800 likes and more than 300 comments within 24 hours of its release.

The video listed four reasons to vote “no”, which included claims that have been dismissed elsewhere as misinformation, such as concerns over the Voice’s impact on Australia’s “constitutional integrity”, fears of “racial inequality” if the referendum succeeded, and claims it would lead to “Indigenous priviledge”.

Why countering misinformation matters

Migrants from diverse socio-cultural backgrounds possess varying levels of literacy regarding Indigenous affairs.

As a result, Australian public institutions need to craft messages that are not only linguistically accessible, but also adapted to the information consumption habits of migrant communities.




Read more:
More work to do: how Chinese-Australians perceive coverage of themselves and China in Australian media


The government also needs to take steps to address the amount of misinformation in the Chinese-language media and social media.

The government’s bill to curb the online spread of false and misleading information, for instance, does not include non-English-language platforms in its scope.

On WeChat, misinformation that is not directly linked to Beijing’s political interests tends to fall outside the scope of platform regulators.

This means it’s up to public institutions to counter misleading information. They can do this by working with local communities to provide credible information on all matters of public interest, not just during the referendum campaign.




Read more:
Australia’s media has been too white for too long. This is how to bring more diversity to newsrooms



The author would like to acknowledge Robbie Fordyce from Monash University and Luke Heemsbergen from Deakin University for their participation in the research project.

The Conversation

Fan Yang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. ‘No’ campaign is dominating the Voice debate among Chinese Australians on WeChat: new research – https://theconversation.com/no-campaign-is-dominating-the-voice-debate-among-chinese-australians-on-wechat-new-research-214383

Crackdown on activists, free expression in Papua as Indonesia eyes UN Human Rights role

Asia Pacific Report

The state of civic space in Indonesia has been rated as “obstructed” in the latest CIVICUS Monitor report.

The civic space watchdog said that ongoing concerns include the arrest, harassment and criminalisation of human rights defenders and journalists as well as physical and digital attacks, the use of defamation laws to silence online dissent and excessive use of force by the police during protests, especially in the Papuan region.

In July 2023, the UN Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide, Alice Wairimu Nderitu, expressed concerns regarding the human rights situation in the West Papua region in her opening remarks during the 22nd Meeting of the 53rd Regular Session of the Human Rights Council in Geneva.

She highlighted the harassment, arbitrary arrest and detention of Papuans, which had led to the appropriation of customary land in West Papua.

She encouraged the Indonesian government to ensure humanitarian assistance and engage in “a genuine inclusive dialogue”.

In August 2023, human rights organisations called on Indonesia to make serious commitments as the country sought membership in the UN Human Rights Council for the period 2024 to 2026.

Among the calls were to ratify international human rights instruments, especially the International Convention for the Protection of All Persons from Enforced Disappearance (ICPPED), to provide details of steps it will take to implement all of the supported recommendations from the Universal Periodic Review (UPR) and to fully cooperate with the Special Procedures of the Council.

Call to respect free expression
The groups also called on the government to ensure the respect, protection and promotion of the rights to freedom of expression, peaceful assembly and association, for clear commitments to ensure a safe and enabling environment for all human rights defenders, to find a sustainable solution for the human rights crisis in Papua and to end impunity.

In recent months, protests by communities have been met with arbitrary arrests and excessive force from the police.

The arbitrary arrests, harassment and criminalisation of Papuan activists continue, while an LGBT conference was cancelled due to harassment and threats.

Human rights defenders continue to face defamation charges, there have been harassment and threats against journalists, while a TikTok communicator was jailed for two years over a pork video.

Ongoing targeting of Papuan activists
Arbitrary arrests, harassment and criminalisation of Papuan activists continue to be documented.

According to the Human Rights Monitor, on 5 July 2023, four armed plainclothes police officers arrested Viktor Makamuke, a 52-year-old activist of the United Liberation Movement for West Papua (ULMWP), a pro-independence movement.

He was subsequently detained at the Sorong Selatan District Police Station where officers allegedly coerced and threatened Makamuke to pledge allegiance to the Unitary State of the Republic of Indonesia (NKRI).

A week earlier, Makamuke and his friend had reportedly posted a photo in support of ULMWP full membership in the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) — an intergovernmental organisation composed of the four Melanesian states.

Shortly after the arrest, the police published a statement claiming that Makamuke was the commander of the West Papua National Liberation Army (TPNPB) — an armed group — in the Bomberai Region.

The Human Rights Monitor reported that members of the Yahukimo District police arbitrarily arrested six activists belonging to the West Papua National Committee (KNPB) in the town of Dekai, Yahukimo Regency, on 6 July 2023.

KNPB is a movement promoting the right to self-determination through peaceful action and is one of the most frequently targeted groups in West Papua.

The activists organised and carried out a collective cleaning activity in Dekai. The police repeatedly approached them claiming that the activists needed official permission for their activity.

Six KNPB activists arrested
Subsequently, police officers arrested the six KNPB activists without a warrant or justifying the arrest. All activists were released after being interrogated for an hour.

On 8 August 2023, three students were found guilty of treason and subsequently given a 10-month prison sentence by the Jayapura District Court.

Yoseph Ernesto Matuan, Devio Tekege and Ambrosius Fransiskus Elopere were charged with treason due to their involvement in an event held at the Jayapura University of Science and Technology (USTJ) in November 2022, where they waved the Morning Star flag, a banned symbol of Papuan independence.

Their action was in protest against a planned peace dialogue proposed by the National Commission on Human Rights (Komnas HAM).

According to Amnesty International Indonesia, between 2019 and 2022 there have been at least 61 cases involving 111 individuals in Papua who were charged with treason.

At least 37 supporters of the West Papua National Committee (KNPB) were arrested in relation to peaceful demonstrations to commemorate the 1962 New York Agreement in the towns Sentani, Jayapura Regency and Dekai, Yahukimo Regency, on 14 and 15 August 2023.

Allegations of police ill-treatment
There were also allegations of ill-treatment by the police.

On 2 September 2023, police officers detained Agus Kossay, Chairman of the West Papua National Coalition (KNPB); Benny Murip, KNPB Secretary in Jayapura; Ruben Wakla, member of the KNPB in the Yahukimo Regency; and Ferry Yelipele.

The four activists were subsequently detained and interrogated at the Jayapura District Police Station in Doyo Baru. Wakla and Yelipele were released on 3rd September 2023 without charge.

Police officers reportedly charged Kossay and Murip under Article 160 and Article 170 of the Indonesian Criminal Code (KUHP) for “incitement”.

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Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

We don’t need a hydrotherapy pool in every school, but we do need quality public education for all kids

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Armstrong, Senior Lecturer in Special and Inclusive Education, RMIT University

Shutterstock

The Royal Commission into Violence, Abuse, Neglect and Exploitation of People with Disability has shared its final report. In this series, we unpack what the commission’s 222 recommendations could mean for a more inclusive Australia.


The release of the disability royal commission’s final report ignited a public debate about the future of “special schools” and whether we can phase out segregation in education. During one radio discussion this week, an irate parent asked me:

But how can a mainstream school have a hydrotherapy pool like the one our local special school has?

The future of special schools is important and discussed in the report. But it’s not the main story here. In fact, focusing on specialist schools for students with disability misunderstands the report’s point and misses its major implications for all schools.




Read more:
Disability royal commissioners disagreed over phasing out ‘special schools’ – that leaves segregation on the table


What the report says

Most educational recommendations in the report aim to strengthen inclusion in mainstream “regular” schools and prevent them from undermining inclusion or dodging their legal responsibilities toward students with a disability.

The report recommends a “legal entitlement for students with disability to enrol in a local mainstream school”. Currently, some mainstream settings do not welcome such students and use gatekeeping practices. These may include persuading parents the school cannot meet their’s child’s needs or to informally prevent enrolment.

Gatekeeping means mainstream school is not an option for many parents, and explains why the number of special schools has risen across Australia over the past decade.

The report also recommends mainstream schools take early, preventative actions before suspending or excluding students who have a disability. It urges transparent processes, so parents understand decisions and how to appeal.




Read more:
Here’s why we need a disability rights act – not just a disability discrimination one


Exclusion from the mainstream

Rising numbers of students with disability enrolled in the mainstream sector have faced suspension and exclusion from school over the past decade, typically due to “problem behaviour”.

Expensive safety net programs known as Flexible Learning Options have become popular across Australia as an emergency policy reaction to this trend. They are intended to support students at risk or already disengaged from education.

In our research, my colleagues and I found that, in 2019, more than 70,000 Australian high-school-aged students were enrolled in flexible learning programs. This number had almost tripled since 2016 and students with disability are over-represented. Such programs exist outside the mainstream system and provide personalised learning using a variety of education providers. But concerns have been raised about the quality of provision.

A national organisation called School Can’t – a peer support community for parents and carers of students with school attendance difficulties – told a recent senate inquiry into school refusal about the growing numbers of children with a disability being home schooled. The organisation reported its membership had grown tenfold since 2019 to almost 10,000 and it had been overwhelmed by the volume of parents seeking support.

International research consistently shows the devastating psychological impacts exclusion from school creates for affected students and their families.




Read more:
Politics with Michelle Grattan: Greens Jordon Steele-John on the disability royal commission and Bill Shorten’s NDIS reforms


The bigger issue

In its report, the disability royal commission acknowledges that inclusion is failing in many mainstream settings.

Although split on some aspects of strategy, the commissioners detail progressive plans to invest in the skills and knowledge of the education workforce and steps to deliver greater inclusion in mainstream schools. For example, the report recommends we:

[…] strengthen initial teacher education in inclusive education and attract and retain people with disability and others with expertise in delivering inclusive education.

Establishing a national database to gather reliable information on “student experiences, school outcomes for students with disability and progress in addressing barriers to inclusive education practices” is another welcome recommendation. This will be vital to check whether the intended benefits are flowing down to more inclusion at classroom level.

But there has been scant public or media attention so far to the “elephant in the room”. That is the stressed state of today’s public education system.

Capacity is key

The big issue here is the capacity of our disintegrating public education system to adopt the report’s vision for higher-quality, inclusive mainstream public education. Gatekeeping and excessive use of suspensions and exclusion can be understood as predictable responses by schools under pressure.

That said, the report recommendations should be reframed as a powerful case for targeted educational reforms. With funding and investment, we can raise the quality of mainstream public education so it can include students with a disability.

In the name of greater inclusion, the disability royal commission’s proposed reforms represent a positive, visible investment in the whole of Australia’s public school system. The value of this contribution at this time of crisis cannot be underestimated. Well-funded inclusive education is better for everyone.

The Conversation

David Armstrong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. We don’t need a hydrotherapy pool in every school, but we do need quality public education for all kids – https://theconversation.com/we-dont-need-a-hydrotherapy-pool-in-every-school-but-we-do-need-quality-public-education-for-all-kids-214716

Climate change is disrupting ocean currents. We’re using satellites and ships to understand how

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shane Keating, Senior Lecturer in Mathematics and Oceanography, UNSW Sydney

CNES

Earth’s ocean is incredibly vast. Some parts of it are so remote that the nearest human habitation is the International Space Station.

As the world warms, what happens in the ocean – and what happens to the ocean – will be vital to all our lives. But to monitor what’s happening in remote waters, we need to study the ocean from space.

Late last year, NASA and CNES, the French space agency, launched a satellite that promises to give scientists a far better view than ever before of the ocean’s surface. The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will reveal ocean currents that play a crucial role in the weather and climate.

To make the most of the satellite observations, we need to compare them with measurements made at surface level. That is why we are heading out to sea on the state-of-the-art CSIRO research vessel RV Investigator to gather essential ocean data under the satellite’s path as it orbits Earth.

Current affairs

Climate change is disrupting the global network of currents that connect the oceans. Researchers have detected a slowdown of the deep “overturning circulation” that carries carbon, heat, oxygen and nutrients from Antarctica around the globe. Meanwhile, at the surface, ocean currents are becoming more energetic.

We have also seen dramatic changes in fast, narrow rivers of seawater called western boundary currents, such as the Gulf Stream and the East Australian Current.




Read more:
Shifting ocean currents are pushing more and more heat into the Southern Hemisphere’s cooler waters


These currents funnel heat from the tropics towards the poles, and in recent decades they have become hotspots for ocean warming. In the Southern Hemisphere, they are warming two to three times faster than the global average.

As these currents destabilise, they alter how heat is distributed throughout the ocean. This in turn will cause major changes in local weather and marine ecosystems that may impact the lives of millions of people.

Playground physics

The SWOT satellite mission will give researchers a powerful new tool to monitor changes in ocean currents by using accurate satellite measurements of the sea surface – plus a little bit of playground physics.

The satellite carries an instrument that will map variations in the height of the sea surface in unprecedented detail. These variations might be less than a metre in height over horizontal distances of hundreds of kilometres. But oceanographers can use the measurements to estimate ocean currents flowing underneath.

Small variations in the height of the sea surface create horizontal pressure differences that try to push water away from areas of high sea level and towards areas of low sea level. That pressure difference is balanced by the Coriolis force, which gently deflects ocean currents to the right in the Northern Hemisphere and to the left in the Southern Hemisphere.

Illlustration showing Earth from space with the ocean filled with complex whorls of current
Earth’s oceans are filled with complex network of currents driven by the rotation of the planet.
NASA / Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

You can experience the Coriolis force at the playground. Step onto a merry-go-round and ask a friend to stand on the opposite side from you. As you start spinning, toss a ball to your friend. You will notice that the ball appears to be deflected away from the direction of rotation.

In reality, the ball has moved in a straight line; your friend has simply moved away from where you were aiming. But, to you both, the ball seems to have been deflected by an invisible “pseudo-force” – the Coriolis force.

Now imagine the merry-go-round is Earth, and the ball is an ocean current. The Coriolis deflection is enough to balance pressure differences across hundreds of kilometres and causes seawater to flow in ocean currents.

Science at sea

By carefully measuring the height of the sea surface and using our knowledge of the Coriolis force, oceanographers will be able to use data from NASA’s satellite to reveal ocean currents in greater detail than ever before. But to make sense of that data, researchers need to compare satellite measurements with observations made down here on Earth.

That’s why we are leading a voyage of more than 60 scientists, support staff and crew aboard the RV Investigator, Australia’s national flagship for blue water ocean research.

Photo of a blue-and-white ship, the RV Investigator, sailing through the sea beneath grey skies.
A 24-day voyage aboard the RV Investigator will gather data about oceans currents.
CSIRO, CC BY

Our 24-day voyage will study ocean dynamics off Australia’s southeast coast using the Investigator’s world-class scientific equipment, including satellite-tracked floating buoys and drifters that will be used to measure the real-time movement of currents at the ocean surface.




Read more:
Explainer: the RV Investigator’s role in marine science


The voyage is part of a huge collaboration by scientists around the world to gather observational data under the satellite’s path as it orbits Earth. This data will help validate satellite measurements and improve weather forecasts, including those from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, and assist with climate risk assessment and prediction.

We hope to better understand how our oceans are changing using what we observe in space, at sea — and in the playground.


This research is supported by a grant of sea time on RV Investigator from the CSIRO Marine National Facility.

You can follow our voyage on Twitter/X using the hashtag #RVInvestigator.

The Conversation

Shane Keating receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Moninya Roughan receives funding from Australian Research Council, Australia’s Marine National Facility, and the National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Scheme

ref. Climate change is disrupting ocean currents. We’re using satellites and ships to understand how – https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-disrupting-ocean-currents-were-using-satellites-and-ships-to-understand-how-214962

Marape seeks help from Australia, Singapore to fight PNG corruption

By Jeffrey Elapa in Port Moresby

Papua New Guinea’s government has appealed to the Australian Federal Police and the Singapore Police to assist PNG police to link money laundering trails.

Speaking in Parliament yesterday, Prime Minister James Marape said Australia and Singapore had been the major hub of transit for possible money laundering activities.

He wants help from police in the two countries to assist PNG police in their fight against corruption in the country.

“We are fighting corruption. For instance, we are following the footprints of the [A$1.2 billion Swiss bank] UBS money that has gone deeply rooted so our police are working on it,” he said.

“Therefore I want to encourage police in Singapore and police in Australia assist PNG police to deal with money laundered from PNG.

“I want to appeal again to the Australian police and Singaporean police to assist our police and I make this statement as the Prime Minister of this country.

“And in the case of UBS, we have made [a] deep incision, we are following the money trail, the entire loot that was looted from this country,” he said.

‘Prioritise law and order’
“I want to give commendation to the Police Commissioner, David Manning — he is not here to stop tribal fights; stopping tribal fights is the job of our members of Parliament.

“Governors you have PSIP (constituency development funds) funds so prioritise law and order using your funds, do not wait for police commissioners to come and stop tribal fights.

“PNG has been labelled a corrupt country so I don’t want to leave this label for the next 20 years so we have to make an example out of other existing corruption that has been documented and evidence are used.

“And the ICAC [Independent Commission Against Corruption] commission of inquiry has sufficient evidence for us to pursue our efforts to fight corruption.

“I will indicate to this House that we will bring to this floor of Parliament the Finance Inquiry again and other inquiries that are outstanding.

“We will revisit if they are not time bound but we will not limit the limited police capacity so that is why I appeal to Singapore police and Australia police to assist my policemen to link to the money trails,” the Prime Minister said.

“Monies do not hide, monies move from one bank account to another bank account, forensic auditors and investigators will follow the money trials and our police are working as part of the law and order conversation, focusing on our country like fighting corruption like never before,” he said.

Marape said the ICAC, Ombudsman Commission and police would work in partnership in the pursuit to address corruption in the country.

He said with the efforts to strengthening the work of the ICAC, three commissioners had been appointed while a third Ombudsman commissioner would be appointed this week.

Jeffrey Elapa is a PNG Post-Courier reporter. Republished with permission.

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Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

The Voice could advise on how to address natural disasters like bushfires

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Claire Hooker, Senior Lecturer and Coordinator, Health and Medical Humanities, University of Sydney

After three wet years, bushfire season has begun again. We have been warned this season could be a bad one.

With the last few years of epic rain, more fuel has grown to burn in what is predicted to be a hot, dry summer. Disaster events like bushfires are predicted to increase in both frequency and severity as the climate changes. Disasters will cascade and overlap – there may be no time to recover between one disaster and the next.

The Voice to Parliament has the potential to be an effective way to adapt to this riskier future. It will enable Aboriginal communities to better undertake the urgent tasks of planning and disaster preparation.

Importantly, all Australians could benefit from the Voice advising on strategies for how Australia can prepare for, and survive, disasters.




Read more:
The Voice to Parliament explained


First Nations people know how to adapt to changing climates

First Nations people around the world have experience in successfully adapting to changing climates, reaching back tens of thousands of years.

Some Australians are already turning to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander knowledge of Country to prepare for, mitigate, respond to, and recover from the impacts of natural hazards. First Nations strategies – from “cool burn” bushfire hazard reduction such as the world leading Fire to Flourish program, to waterway management – can prevent disasters, or reduce their scale.

There’s also the example of Northern Australia’s satellite bushfire management program developed in collaboration with Traditional Owners.

The Voice has the potential to provide the means for the Australian government to learn from this expertise. This could enable all Australians to see and benefit from the extraordinary strengths in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities.

Natural disasters require community-supported responses

Australia’s National Principles for Disaster Recovery emphasise that disaster management must be community-based.

Disaster management is not effective when government disaster responses do not consider local knowledge. The effect is often worsened when these responses also lack understanding of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander cultures and ways of working.

One example of this was during the Lismore floods. Local Indigenous communities argued that a failure to include Aboriginal knowledge in the planning and response to the floods resulted in residents being left stranded on rooftops and surviving without water and electricity for days. Communities have since called for more Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander first responders.

Disaster events in Australia can impact Indigenous people disproportionately. Poor housing, lack of access to resources and a higher prevalence of ill health render First Nations peoples more likely to be negatively impacted by heatwaves, floods and fires. This also means fewer resources and infrastructure to help these communities recover from these disasters after they occur.

Lack of external support has often led to First Nations communities leading disaster response for themselves. In Lismore, support and help for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander families came from the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander community itself. Despite significant flood damage to their building, The Koori Mail – a Lismore-produced local newspaper – organised food, material needs and social support to the local Koori (Aboriginal) community.

Larrakia, Tiwi, Yolŋu and Desert people in the Northern Territory have similar stories of working together. In the past they have coordinated with friends and family to care for the young, sick and elderly in emergency events such as cyclones and bushfires.




Read more:
Disastrous floods in WA – why were we not prepared?


All Australians need to learn from Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander disaster management

In every disaster there are calls to “build back better” – that is, to reimagine how we live and how we can live well together. First Nations communities globally do this work every day. Although First Nations people are only around 6% of the world’s population, their respective lands house 80% of the world’s biodiversity.

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people provide models for how to live differently, in ways that care for Country and prevent climate change and its disasters.

The Voice is crucial for enabling Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities to prepare for, respond to and remain resilient to the disasters that lie ahead of all of us. It also has the potential to enrich the lives of all Australians as we imagine a different, more caring, more equal future through each disaster, together.

As others have noted, the Voice could provide cost-efficient policy solutions to Indigenous affairs. This could also be the case for effective disaster planning and responses.

We have seen First Nations communities successfully advise on how to look after Country, and this includes planning for a hazardous future. The Voice could provide this on a national scale.

What we learn about effective community-led disaster management in the process will benefit us all.

The Conversation

Claire Hooker is affiliated with The Arts Health Network NSW/ACT. She partners with the Creative Recovery Network.

Michelle Dickson receives funding from NH&MRC and the MRFF research funding schemes.

ref. The Voice could advise on how to address natural disasters like bushfires – https://theconversation.com/the-voice-could-advise-on-how-to-address-natural-disasters-like-bushfires-214556

Campaign trail threats and abuse reinforce the need to protect NZ’s women politicians – before they quit for good

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cassandra Mudgway, Senior Lecturer in Law, University of Canterbury

A female candidate slapped after a public debate, another whose home was vandalised, a man trespassed for entering the same house, shouts and jeers directed at another woman candidate for using te reo Māori – the 2023 election has certainly had its uglier moments.

But reports of abuse, threats and violence on the campaign trail shouldn’t surprise anyone. Over the past five years, female politicians have consistently spoken about the often violent and sexist harassment they receive online.

A recent United Nations study examining the experiences of female journalists established a clear link between online and real-world violence, particularly stalking. Another study found female politicians and journalists in Britain and the United States are abused on Twitter (now X) every 30 seconds.

This is backed up by local politicians’ experiences. Green Party MPs Marama Davidson and Golriz Ghahraman have both spoken about the serious abuse they receive online. Ghahraman needed a security escort following a series of death threats.

In 2021, Christchurch city councillor Sara Templeton and other female leaders, including mayor Lianne Dalziel and Labour MPs Sarah Pallet and Megan Woods, were subjected to a relentless campaign of online harassment and increasingly gendered abuse.

Similar experiences have been shared by National MPs Nicola Willis and Paula Bennett . Former prime minister Jacinda Ardern also had to tolerate high levels of online vitriol. What has happened during the election campaign is part of a clear trend.

Normalised gender-based violence

The often misogynistic nature of online abuse, from sexist name-calling to threats of rape and death, makes it a form of gender-based violence . And the New Zealand government has made international and domestic commitments to create a safe political environment for women.

But this would require the development of a concrete plan to address online violence – something most political parties have been largely silent about during the election campaign.




Read more:
Online abuse could drive women out of political life – the time to act is now


And it’s not a new issue. The independent review into bullying and harassment in parliament was released in 2019. It found online harassment and abuse of MPs by members of the public, including sexist and violent threats, was increasingly common and even accepted as par for the course.

Since then, there have been significant improvements to combat workplace bullying, but essentially nothing has been done about online abuse.

This is especially concerning given the way violent online behaviour may embolden some people to act out such behaviours in real life.

A weak legal framework

That said, there are some rules governing online abuse. The current legal framework includes the Harmful Digital Communications Act, which was designed to address harmful online communication such as cyberbullying, harassment and threats. It established legal mechanisms for reporting and prosecuting harmful digital content.

But the law has two key weaknesses when it comes to gender-based violence.

Firstly, to prove a criminal offence, the harmful content must cause “serious emotional distress” to the victim. This may be difficult to prove from a single comment from a single person, because the real harm lies in the barrage of abusive comments from numerous people all at once.




Read more:
How misogyny, narcissism and a desperate need for power make men abuse women online


It must also be proved that the content would cause “serious emotional distress” to an “ordinary reasonable person”. So the law does not fully consider the gendered nature of online abuse, and may not account for the specific ways in which women are targeted.

Secondly, the normalisation of online abuse against female politicians means they often do not report the abuse. This leaves perpetrators to continue with impunity. Overall, the law seems to have failed to deter people from engaging in online gender-based violence.

In turn, this puts New Zealand offside with its responsibilities as a signatory to important United Nations human rights conventions. Online abuse violates women’s right to be free from violence and the right of women to participate in political and public life.

Public education needed

Although some political leaders have expressed deep concern about online abuse in the past, the issue is not currently a priority for any major party. The risk is that women will simply leave the political arena, something already observed overseas.

Whichever party or coalition forms the next government should act urgently to address gender-based violence, both online and offline. It needs to review the legal framework to allow better protection for women, and find ways to enlist the general public’s support in making such abuse socially unacceptable.

This will require a comprehensive plan involving public education, schools, law enforcement, the judiciary and parliamentarians. But without more urgent action, the likelihood of online violence spilling over into the real world only increases.

The Conversation

Cassandra Mudgway does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Campaign trail threats and abuse reinforce the need to protect NZ’s women politicians – before they quit for good – https://theconversation.com/campaign-trail-threats-and-abuse-reinforce-the-need-to-protect-nzs-women-politicians-before-they-quit-for-good-214828

6 reasons why global temperatures are spiking right now

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew King, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, The University of Melbourne

Jonas Weckschmied/Unsplash

The world is very warm right now. We’re not only seeing record temperatures, but the records are being broken by record-wide margins.

Take the preliminary September global-average temperature anomaly of 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels, for example. It’s an incredible 0.5°C above the previous record.

So why is the world so incredibly hot right now? And what does it mean for keeping our Paris Agreement targets?

Here are six contributing factors – with climate change the main reason temperatures are so high.

1. El Niño

One reason for the exceptional heat is we are in a significant El Niño that is still strengthening. During El Niño we see warming of the surface ocean over much of the tropical Pacific. This warming, and the effects of El Niño in other parts of the world, raises global average temperatures by about 0.1 to 0.2°C.




Read more:
Explainer: El Niño and La Niña


Taking into account the fact we’ve just come out of a triple La Niña, which cools global average temperatures slightly, and the fact this is the first major El Niño in eight years, it’s not too surprising we’re seeing unusually high temperatures at the moment.

Still, El Niño alone isn’t enough to explain the crazily high temperatures the world is experiencing.

2. Falling pollution

Air pollution from human activities cools the planet and has offset some of the warming caused by humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions. There have been efforts to reduce this pollution – since 2020 there has been an international agreement to reduce sulphur dioxide emissions from the global shipping industry.

It has been speculated this cleaner air has contributed to the recent heat, particularly over the record-warm north Atlantic and Pacific regions with high shipping traffic.

It’s likely this is contributing to the extreme high global temperatures – but only on the order of hundredths of a degree. Recent analysis suggests the effect of the 2020 shipping agreement is about an extra 0.05°C warming by 2050.

A smog shrouded road with motorcycles, trucks and cars barely visible through the pollution
People pass through the rising pollution on the Delhi-Jaipur Expressway in Gurgaon, Haryana, India, on November 12 2021.
Shutterstock

3. Increasing solar activity

While falling pollution levels mean more of the Sun’s energy reaches Earth’s surface, the amount of the energy the Sun emits is itself variable. There are different solar cycles, but an 11-year cycle is the most relevant one to today’s climate.

The Sun is becoming more active from a minimum in late 2019. This is also contributing a small amount to the spike in global temperatures. Overall, increasing solar activity is contributing only hundredths of a degree at most to the recent global heat.




Read more:
This solar cycle, the sun’s activity is more powerful and surprising than predicted


4. Water vapour from Hunga Tonga eruption

On January 15 2022 the underwater Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai volcano erupted in the South Pacific Ocean, sending large amounts of water vapour high up into the upper atmosphere. Water vapour is a greenhouse gas, so increasing its concentration in the atmosphere in this way does intensify the greenhouse effect.

Even though the eruption happened almost two years ago, it’s still having a small warming effect on the planet. However, as with the reduced pollution and increasing solar activity, we’re talking about hundredths of a degree.

5. Bad luck

We see variability in global temperatures from one year to the next even without factors like El Niño or major changes in pollution. Part of the reason this September was so extreme was likely due to weather systems being in the right place to heat the land surface.

When we have persistent high-pressure systems over land regions, as seen recently over places like western Europe and Australia, we see local temperatures rise and the conditions for unseasonable heat.

As water requires more energy to warm and the ocean moves around, we don’t see the same quick response in temperatures over the seas when we have high-pressure systems.

The positioning of weather systems warming up many land areas coupled with persistent ocean heat is likely a contributor to the global-average heat too.

6. Climate change

By far the biggest contributor to the overall +1.7°C global temperature anomaly is human-caused climate change. Overall, humanity’s effect on the climate has been a global warming of about 1.2°C.

The record-high rate of greenhouse gas emissions means we should expect global warming to accelerate too.

While humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions explain the trend seen in September temperatures over many decades, they don’t really explain the big difference from last September (when the greenhouse effect was almost as strong as it is today) and September 2023.

Much of the difference between this year and last comes back to the switch from La Niña to El Niño, and the right weather systems in the right place at the right time.

The upshot: we need to accelerate climate action

September 2023 shows that with a combination of climate change and other factors aligning we can see alarmingly high temperatures.

These anomalies may appear to be above the 1.5°C global warming level referred to in the Paris Agreement, but that’s about keeping long-term global warming to low levels and not individual months of heat.

But we are seeing the effects of climate change unfolding more and more clearly.

The most vulnerable are suffering the biggest impacts as wealthier nations continue to emit the largest proportion of greenhouse gases. Humanity must accelerate the path to net zero to prevent more record-shattering global temperatures and damaging extreme events.




Read more:
Net zero by 2050? Too late. Australia must aim for 2035


The Conversation

Andrew King receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program.

ref. 6 reasons why global temperatures are spiking right now – https://theconversation.com/6-reasons-why-global-temperatures-are-spiking-right-now-215140

Politics with Michelle Grattan: Greens Jordon Steele-John on the disability royal commission and Bill Shorten’s NDIS reforms

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The Royal Commission into Violence, Abuse, Neglect and Exploitation of People with Disability has shared its final report. In this series, we unpack what the commission’s 222 recommendations could mean for a more inclusive Australia.


The federal government last week released the report of the Royal Commission into Violence, Abuse, Neglect and Exploitation of People with Disability, which painted a confronting picture and recorded the calls of disabled people “for a more inclusive Australia”.

The commission made more than 220 recommendations, and was conducted at a cost to the taxpayer of $600 million. But commissioners split on the key issues of special schools and group housing for people with disabilities, causing immediate controversy.

In this podcast, the Greens spokesman on disability, Jordon Steele-John, who campaigned for the royal commission, joins The Conversation to discuss the report, and also to canvass the NDIS, which is under review in another inquiry.

Steele-John feels “immense pride” in the disabled community for their contribution to the royal commission report, and sees it as a milestone:

This is the work of so many people who have themselves experienced violence, abuse, exploitation and neglect, who campaigned for decades to see this investigation be undertaken […] It’s a milestone for the Australian disability community who have come together in the aftermath of this report to say ‘now is the time to end segregation and to end ableism in Australian government policy’.

Steele-John opposes separating disabled people into special schools and group homes, so he backs those commissioners who want a phase-out. But he believes the proposed timelines are unnacceptably long.

They’ve suggested that we wait until 2050. In segregated education, for instance, that would mean that a disabled child born today would be likely to see their child educated in a segregated setting. That’s not acceptable.

They’ve also recommended that we take a decade to reach the point at which a disabled person is paid the same as a non-disabled person in the workplace. That’s unacceptable, but I think it is really important that we really grapple with and acknowledge the reality of the damage that segregation does to people. It leads to loneliness and isolation, and it exposes them to the violence, abuse and neglect that the recommendations in the report found.

While Steele-John has seen an improvement in the NDIS since Labor won the election, he has criticisms.

My quite critical observation of the government is that they have, I think, failed to push back on and have in many ways bought into a conversation about the NDIS, which is very one sided, focusing on its financial implications on the overall federal budget and minimising the good that it does in people’s lives; while point blank refusing to commission new research or investigations into the positive economic impact of a scheme who, the last time anybody checked, [the investment] actually returned $2.25 for every dollar that was invested in it.

So if you combine that with the fact that the minister’s made a number of comments and their colleagues have made a number of comments about people with psychosocial disabilities and other disabilities and there being too many of them on the scheme, I think that’s really concerning to me and really concerned to the disability community more broadly.

The Conversation

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Greens Jordon Steele-John on the disability royal commission and Bill Shorten’s NDIS reforms – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-greens-jordon-steele-john-on-the-disability-royal-commission-and-bill-shortens-ndis-reforms-215072

People with private health insurance save the government $550 a year, on average

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Francesco Paolucci, Professor of Health Economics, University of Bologna, University of Newcastle

Pexels/Andrea Piacquadio

The federal government has, for a long time, encouraged Australians to get private health insurance, in an attempt to reduce the financial burden on the public health system.

To make private health insurance more attractive, the government has a strategy of carrots and sticks. Low-income and older people receive subsidies through “premium rebates”. High-income earners without the right policy face the Medicare Levy Surcharge, ranging from 1 to 1.5% of their taxable income.

The effectiveness of these subsidies is regularly debated, with questions about whether the A$6.7 billion of taxpayer money that subsidises private health insurance premiums could be better spent on Medicare or directly financing hospitals.

We set out to answer this question: do the savings from increased participation in private health insurance outweigh the costs the government incurs by subsidising private health insurance rebates?

Our analysis, which was commissioned and funded by the Department of Health and Aged Care, found large benefits to the government, especially when older people sign up for private insurance. On average, the government saves about $554 for each person it helps with these subsidies a year.

But rebates can be better targeted for Australians who are more likely to need and use health services.

How did we work this out?

To assess if the money spent on subsidising private health insurance pays off, we examined both the costs (from the premium rebate subsidies and the forgone tax from the Medicare Levy Surcharge) and the savings.

To calculate the savings we looked at how much money the government would spend if these people didn’t have private health insurance and used the public health system instead of the private system. We call this the “offset”.

This is a key metric for the success of the carrot and sticks, as it will be able to tell us the health-care costs saved by the government when someone has private insurance.

Using private health insurance spending data from 2019, we made assumptions that one day in a private hospital costs equal to one day in a public hospital, based on findings from the Productivity Commission.

We also factored in the government’s 75% Medicare Benefits Schedule fee contribution, and higher prices for prostheses (for hip replacements and other implants) in the private system.




Read more:
We can cut private health insurance costs by fixing how we pay for hip replacements and other implants


On average, we found that private health insurance offsets public health-care costs by about $1,400 per person, with greater savings for older people than younger people, reaching $4,000 for those aged 75 and above.

To answer if the savings from private insurance take-up outweighs the costs incurred, we needed to take into account what the government spends to subsidise insurance.

We used the standard premium rebate percentages where a person aged 70 or above earning up to $90,000 attracts a 32.812% rebate, while a person aged under 65 making $105,001–$140,000 would receive a 8.202% rebate.

Surgeon operates
The savings were greater for older people, who were more likely to use health services.
Anna Schvets/Pexels

With an average annual private health insurance premium of $2,300, this would mean the government incurs costs ranging from $755 to $189.

As people who enrol in private insurance don’t have to pay the Medicare Levy Surcharge, which helps fund the public health system, we found that the forgone tax amounts range between $970 and $2,400 for single individuals subject to the penalty.

Combining the costs (from the premium rebate subsidies and the forgone tax from the Medicare Levy Surcharge), and subtracting the savings (the offsets), is how we find that the subsidies are a good financial deal for the government. The subsidies are less than the cost offset by about $554 per person who has private health insurance.

Is there room for improvement?

This raises a question: what if we could change these subsidies based on who costs more to provide health care for and who saves the government more money? As our findings reveal that some groups save the government more money than their subsidies cost, what should we do with the subsidies? If we increase their subsidies, it costs taxpayers more – unless more of them switch to private health insurance.

For instance, an individual aged 75+ earning $105,001 to $140,000 receives $1,877 in subsidies and offsets $5,268 in public health spending, saving the government $3,391. Given the roughly 6,000 people in this age group currently in private health insurance, only two additional enrolments would make it budget-neutral.




Read more:
Private health insurance is set for a shake-up. But asking people to pay more for policies they don’t want isn’t the answer


How can the savings be used?

A better way to subsidise private health insurance is to give extra subsidies to people who are sicker and need more medical care. These are known as “risk-adjusted subsidies”.

A risk-adjusted subsidy would be based on a person’s characteristics such as their age, gender, income, where they live and their health history (such as prior hospitalisations, or use of services). These are people who need private health insurance the most, and also would save the government the most money by having private insurance.

This subsidy could be computed by a formula that uses individual-level spending to figure out how much health care the person is likely to need and how much it’s expected to cost.

Existing work in Australia has shown how this can be developed, while countries such as the Netherlands, Germany, the United States and Switzerland show such a system is feasible.

The Australian health system, and private health insurance regulation in particular, is set for a shake-up, with the Department of Health and Aged Care seeking input on its options. Our research can help inform a path forward.




Read more:
Who really benefits from private health insurance rebates? Not people who need cover the most


The Conversation

Francesco Paolucci has received funding from Horizon 2020, the National Health and Medical Research Council, the Medical Research Future Fund, the Australian Research Council, and The Department of Health and Aged Care.

Josefa Henriquez has received funding from the Department of Health and Aged Care.

ref. People with private health insurance save the government $550 a year, on average – https://theconversation.com/people-with-private-health-insurance-save-the-government-550-a-year-on-average-212787

‘No safe space in society’: new UN report reveals the extent of systemic racism faced by people of African descent in Australia

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kathleen Openshaw, Lecturer in School of Social Sciences, Western Sydney University

Shutterstock

A special UN working group this week tabled its first-ever report on the experiences of people of African descent in Australia to the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva.

The report documents what people of African descent living in Australia already know: Australia has a racism problem.

In fact, the UN’s Working Group of Experts on People of African Descent said in a press release at the end of their visit that people of African descent in Australia are living “under siege of racism”.

The new report says people of African descent experience racism in many key areas of life, including health, education and employment. It also highlighted the use of racialised hate speech in political rhetoric, racial profiling in law enforcement, and the highly racialised nature of Australia’s immigration policies. In one section, the report said:

Some refugees of African descent expressed surprise that settlement was less of a protection tool, and more of a pathway to prison for their communities, stating, “in Africa, we knew what was killing us.”

A new report examines the experiences of people of African descent in Australia.
Shutterstock



Read more:
Growing Up African in Australia: racism, resilience and the right to belong


What the working group found

At the invitation of the Australian government, the working group visited Australia for the first time in December last year.

The group’s task was to evaluate the human rights situation of people of African descent living in Australia. It collected information on racism, racial discrimination, xenophobia and intolerance during visits to Canberra, Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney. It also met with various arms of government (including senior officials of the federal government, the Australian Border Force and Australian Federal Police), non-government stakeholders, academics and human rights defenders.

The working group, supported by the African Australian Advocacy Centre, also facilitated public consultations across Australia where it heard from individuals and community leaders. And it received formal written submissions during and after the visit.

In its report, the UN working group called attention to how the legacies of British colonisation and the White Australia policy still continue to have harmful impacts on Black people of African descent living in contemporary Australia.

In reference to a 2007 assertion by then-Immigration Minister Kevin Andrews that African refugees fail to integrate, the report noted:

This unsupported statement was never retracted nor repaired, even by subsequent governments. It lives on in the minds of people of African descent who see themselves as contributors to Australia and as African-Australian.

The report also observed the politicised association of youth of African descent with “African gangs” and criminality. It revealed their experiences of being racially profiled and surveilled by law enforcement.

Across Australia, young people also reported experiencing racism and cultural denial at university. Children reported similar experiences at school, where they are not presented with positive images of themselves. In fact, many reported being ostracised, subjected to racial slurs and bullied by both classmates and teachers. Their complaints often go unaddressed.

One student told the working group about an incident at school when a football labelled with racial and misogynistic slurs was thrown at her and other Black students in maths class. She said:

Essentially, we have all seen the slow response. We have seen the staff take little to no relevant action – believe it or not, sometimes they do not play by the rules. We have felt lost. Emotionally bruised.

The working group noted children of African descent often feel there are “no safe spaces” for them to grow up Black in Australian society.

The working group had numerous recommendations for the Australian government to consider.
Shutterstock

Scholars Virginia Mapedzahama and Kwamena Kwansah-Aidoo have previously written about the burden experienced by people of African descent with black skin living in Australia.

Mapedzahama and Kwansah-Aidoo write that the main issue is not people’s dark skin, but rather how it marks them as inferior, problematic and not belonging in a predominantly white space.

This can result in the diversity of Black Africans being flattened and their presence in Australia being seen in negative terms. Australian leaders have a particular responsibility not to contribute to such deficit-based portrayals of people of African descent.




Read more:
Trauma, racism and unrealistic expectations mean African refugees are less likely to get into Australian unis


Charting a path forward

The working group’s report makes for difficult reading.

It shows the many compounding ways racism hinders the ability of people of African descents to fully participate in Australian society.

It also draws attention to the fact many felt their experiences of racism had been denied, minimised or ignored.

The report provides 27 recommendations to help guide the Australian government’s future actions to address the working group’s concerns. These include:

  • people of African descent should be meaningfully included in all decisions that impact their lives

  • narratives that feed a “culture of denial” of anti-Black racism should be confronted

  • and that the same care and commitment should be devoted to addressing systemic racism in Australian institutions that the government demonstrated in implementing the White Australia policy historically.

Although Australia has much to do, the UN report acknowledges the work the government has already done to guarantee the human rights of people of African descent. This includes the 2012 establishment of the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Human Rights and the work of the Australian Human Rights Commission.

The report also welcomed the federal government’s willingness to engage in the process and take action.

Australia now has the opportunity to take on board the report’s recommendations. Doing so will bring us closer to empowering people of African descent to contribute to – and benefit more fully from – Australia’s prosperity.


The author would like to acknowledge and thank Noël Zihabamwe, chairperson of the African Australian Advocacy Centre, for his contributions to this article.

The Conversation

The author has an ongoing research partnership with the African Australian Advocacy Centre (AAAC). The author is not a AAAC board member and maintains her academic independence.

ref. ‘No safe space in society’: new UN report reveals the extent of systemic racism faced by people of African descent in Australia – https://theconversation.com/no-safe-space-in-society-new-un-report-reveals-the-extent-of-systemic-racism-faced-by-people-of-african-descent-in-australia-213365

Noumea’s ‘newspaper’ Les Nouvelles is back – free and online only

Pacific Media Watch

New Caledonia’s daily newspaper Les Nouvelles Calédoniennes is back six months after it closed — but with a big difference. It is online only and free, almost.

The return of the news outlet which had been an institution for half a century is welcomed in many quarters, but some local mayors would have liked to also see the news print version which traditionally carried special local community liftouts.

In March, the then owners, the Melchior Group, publishers of a chain of giveaway titles, announced the closure of the publication just months after halting the daily newspaper edition.

This left the French overseas territory of New Caledonia (population 275,000) without a daily newspaper.

Readers were shocked when the website of the LNC also shut down abruptly on March 10 citing economics and the covid pandemic.

The Melchior Group owned printing presses, Les Editions du Caillou publishing house and the radio station NRJ-Nouvelle-Calédonie.

Reports surfaced in September that there were efforts to revive LNR as a digital-only publication with the need for a daily news source strengthened with New Caledonia on the threshold of major political changes with the Noumea Accord era drawing to a close and growing polarisation between anti- and pro-independence advocates.

According to the state-owned public broadcaster Nouvelle Calédonie 1 Première TV, the new chief editor Nicolas Lebreton — who had been part of the previous LNC team — pledged: “We will give Caledonians quality and free information.”

In an Inside Report article in May headlined “Death of a newspaper”, Nic Maclellan wrote: “It [LNC] made little pretence of impartiality during the armed conflict that divided New Caledonia in the mid-1980s, denigrating indigenous Kanak and editorialising in favour of the anti-independence party, Rally for New Caledonia in the Republic.”

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Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Ahmed Zaoui detained in Algeria for democracy statements, lawyer says

RNZ News

The Algerian democracy advocate Ahmed Zaoui, a New Zealand citizen, has been arrested by Algerian security forces after commenting on human rights violations at a political meeting at his home.

His New Zealand lawyer Deborah Manning said Zaoui had been detained at a police station in the city of Medea since he was taken from his home at about 5.30pm on Tuesday (Algerian time).

“He was arrested at gunpoint . . . by eight men in balaclavas from the special forces and the neighbourhood was surrounded, so it was a significant operation, and he’s been taken for interrogation,” she said.

“It’s a precarious situation for anyone taken under these circumstances.”

He had not yet been charged with anything, she said.

Zaoui, who was recognised as a refugee in New Zealand 20 years ago after a protracted legal battle, entered Algeria on a New Zealand passport.

“Mr Zaoui has two homes now — he has family in Algeria and New Zealand and he was wanting to find a way to live in both worlds.

‘Constant communication’
“He returned to Algeria to be with family in recent years as the political situation appeared to be settling. He was planning to return to New Zealand later this year.”

Manning remained in “constant communication” with Zaoui’s family in Algeria.

The family was “very concerned” and was working with New Zealand consular affairs.

There was no New Zealand consulate in Algeria but Manning said she was in touch with “the relevant authorities”.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade told RNZ it was aware of reports of a New Zealander detained in Algeria but could not provide further information due to “privacy reasons”.

According to Amnesty International, about 300 people have been arrested in Algeria on charges related to freedom of speech since a law change in April cracking down on media freedom.

Zaoui, a former theology professor, stood as a candidate for the Islamic Salvation Front in Algeria’s first general election in 1991.

However, the government cancelled the election and banned his party when it appeared it was on track to win the election, forcing Zaoui and others to flee the country.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

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Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Is there really a 1 in 6 chance of human extinction this century?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steven Stern, Professor of Data Science, Bond University

Shutterstock

In 2020, Oxford-based philosopher Toby Ord published a book called The Precipice about the risk of human extinction. He put the chances of “existential catastrophe” for our species during the next century at one in six.

It’s quite a specific number, and an alarming one. The claim drew headlines at the time, and has been influential since – most recently brought up by Australian politician Andrew Leigh in a speech in Melbourne.

It’s hard to disagree with the idea we face troubling prospects over the coming decades, from climate change, nuclear weapons and bio-engineered pathogens (all big issues in my view), to rogue AI and large asteroids (which I would see as less concerning).

But what about that number? Where does it come from? And what does it really mean?

Coin flips and weather forecasts

To answer those questions, we have to answer another first: what is probability?

The most traditional view of probability is called frequentism, and derives its name from its heritage in games of dice and cards. On this view, we know there is a one in six chance a fair die will come up with a three (for example) by observing the frequency of threes in a large number of rolls.

Or consider the more complicated case of weather forecasts. What does it mean when a weatherperson tells us there is a one in six (or 17%) chance of rain tomorrow?




Read more:
The science of weather forecasting: what it takes and why it’s so hard to get right


It’s hard to believe the weatherperson means us to imagine a large collection of “tomorrows”, of which some proportion will experience precipitation. Instead, we need to look at a large number of such predictions and see what happened after them.

If the forecaster is good at their job, we should see that when they said “one in six chance of rain tomorrow”, it did in fact rain on the following day one time in every six.

So, traditional probability depends on observations and procedure. To calculate it, we need to have a collection of repeated events on which to base our estimate.

Can we learn from the Moon?

So what does this mean for the probability of human extinction? Well, such an event would be a one-off: after it happened, there would be no room for repeats.

Instead, we might find some parallel events to learn from. Indeed, in Ord’s book, he discusses a number of potential extinction events, some of which can potentially be examined in light of a history.

A photo of the Moon with craters highlighted.
Counting craters on the Moon can gives us clues about the risk of asteroid impacts on Earth.
NASA

For example, we can estimate the chances of an extinction-sized asteroid hitting Earth by examining how many such space rocks have hit the Moon over its history. A French scientist named Jean-Marc Salotti did this in 2022, calculating the odds of an extinction-level hit in the next century at around one in 300 million.

Of course, such an estimate is fraught with uncertainty, but it is backed by something approaching an appropriate frequency calculation. Ord, by contrast, estimates the risk of extinction by asteroid at one in a million, though he does note a considerable degree of uncertainty.

A ranking system for outcomes

There is another way to think about probability, called Bayesianism after the English statistician Thomas Bayes. It focuses less on events themselves and more on what we know, expect and believe about them.

In very simple terms, we can say Bayesians see probabilities as a kind of ranking system. In this view, the specific number attached to a probability shouldn’t be taken directly, but rather compared to other probabilities to understand which outcomes are more and less likely.




Read more:
Bayes’ Theorem: the maths tool we probably use every day, but what is it?


Ord’s book, for example, contains a table of potential extinction events and his personal estimates of their probability. From a Bayesian perspective, we can view these values as relative ranks. Ord thinks extinction from an asteroid strike (one in a million) is much less likely than extinction from climate change (one in a thousand), and both are far less likely than extinction from what he calls “unaligned artificial intelligence” (one in ten).

The difficulty here is that initial estimates of Bayesian probabilities (often called “priors”) are rather subjective (for instance, I would rank the chance of AI-based extinction much lower). Traditional Bayesian reasoning moves from “priors” to “posteriors” by again incorporating observational evidence of relevant outcomes to “update” probability values.

And once again, outcomes relevant to the probability of human extinction are thin on the ground.

Subjective estimates

There are two ways to think about the accuracy and usefulness of probability calculations: calibration and discrimination.

Calibration is the correctness of the actual values of the probabilities. We can’t determine this without appropriate observational information. Discrimination, on the other hand, simply refers to the relative rankings.




Read more:
Longtermism – why the million-year philosophy can’t be ignored


We don’t have a basis to think Ord’s values are properly calibrated. Of course, this is not likely to be his intent. He himself indicates they are mostly designed to give “order of magnitude” indications.

Even so, without any related observational confirmation, most of these estimates simply remain in the subjective domain of prior probabilities.

Not well calibrated – but perhaps still useful

So what are we to make of “one in six”? Experience suggests most people have a less than perfect understanding of probability (as evidenced by, among other things, the ongoing volume of lottery ticket sales). In this environment, if you’re making an argument in public, an estimate of “probability” doesn’t necessarily need to be well calibrated – it just needs to have the right sort of psychological impact.

From this perspective, I’d say “one in six” fits the bill nicely. “One in 100” might feel small enough to ignore, while “one in three” might drive panic or be dismissed as apocalyptic raving.

As a person concerned about the future, I hope risks like climate change and nuclear proliferation get the attention they deserve. But as a data scientist, I hope the careless use of probability gets left by the wayside and is replaced by widespread education on its true meaning and appropriate usage.




Read more:
433 people win a lottery jackpot – impossible? Probability and psychology suggest it’s more likely than you’d think


The Conversation

Steven Stern does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Is there really a 1 in 6 chance of human extinction this century? – https://theconversation.com/is-there-really-a-1-in-6-chance-of-human-extinction-this-century-215054

For people with communication disability, complaining about their treatment isn’t so simple

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Abby Foster, Allied Health Research Advisor, Monash Health; Adjunct senior lecturer, La Trobe University; Adjunct research fellow, School of Primary & Allied Health Care, Monash University

Chansom Pantip/Shutterstock

The Royal Commission into Violence, Abuse, Neglect and Exploitation of People with Disability has shared its final report. In this series, we unpack what the commission’s 222 recommendations could mean for a more inclusive Australia.


With the release of the disability royal commission’s final report, the harrowing treatment of people with disabilities in Australia has been starkly displayed.

Just prior to the report’s release, media reports about abuse and neglect prompted National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) commissioner Tracy Mackey to say anyone on the scheme who is concerned about the care they’re receiving and doesn’t have someone to advocate for them should get in touch with the scheme’s quality and safety commission.

But this fails to acknowledge the systemic barriers people with communication disability face. For many, picking up the phone or completing an online form without support is not possible.

Communication is a human right

As part of the United Nations’ Declaration of Human Rights, everyone has the “right to freedom of opinion and expression”.

Acknowledging this, the disability royal commission made specific recommendations around enabling autonomy and access through “communication access”. Acknowledging that failure to do so can lead to poor health, education, employment and justice outcomes, with increased risk of harm during emergencies and natural disasters.

Communication access is necessary for everyone in society, but especially for the 1.2 million Australians who live with a communication disability.




Read more:
Here’s why we need a disability rights act – not just a disability discrimination one


But what does ‘communication access’ mean?

Communication is enormously diverse. We use spoken, written and sign language, gesture, pictorial and digital forms, facial expression, vocalisation, and physical expression to convey meaning. Through these, we can communicate our needs, thoughts and concerns.

Critically, the success of any communicative attempt requires the communication form to be acknowledged, valued and supported. Our environment has a profound impact on how successful communication is – irrespective of a person’s abilities or impairments.

Over the last 40 years we have witnessed a significant shift in attitudes towards people with disability in Australia. There is now legal entitlement for “people with disability to exercise choice and control”.

An independent review of the NDIS is due to report by the end of this month with pressure on costs and growth to ensure sustainability. But enabling people to communicate and exercise choice demands we design and resource accessible communication environments.

alt text
Communication can come in many forms.
ABO PHOTOGRAPHY/Shutterstock

What’s it like to live with a communication disability?

Every day, people experience barriers to receiving and sharing information. These barriers can affect how they engage in meaningful interactions and how safe they feel. Inadequate communication accommodations can lead to difficulties accessing health care, using public transport, even ordering a coffee.

The disability royal commission exposed failures that have caused immense harm. The agency of people living with communication disability has not been respected, with devastating consequences.

Communication barriers exist within the context of high rates of abuse, violence and deprivation of basic needs, including food, shelter, or assistive aids. These rates are almost double those reported for people living without disability.




Read more:
The disability royal commission heard horrific stories of harm – now we must move towards repair


What is communication access?

Communication access occurs when everyone can meaningfully access information and get their message across. The commission called it “a critical safeguard against violence, abuse, neglect and exploitation”.

Yet common approaches to communication accessibility – including those used by government bodies such as the National Disability Insurance Agency (which administers the NDIS) – have limited value.

The commonly applied Easy Read format – which combines text with layout and imagery to explain information – for example, lacks standardised design principles. It is only useful for supporting specific groups.

Universal design principles go someway in supporting agency for people with communication disability. These principles aim to recognise, value and accommodate a broad range of users of specific products or environments. But tailored attention to individual communicative requirements is essential too.




Read more:
Banning straws might be good for the planet – but bad for people with disability or swallowing problems. What is ‘eco-ableism’?


What should happen next?

There have been calls to enhance communication access for many years. While the commission’s recommendations are an important step, the real challenge lies ahead.

The government taskforce charged with acting on the commission’s recommendations should begin by acknowledging the expertise of people with communicative disability.

Co-design is a core tenet of the NDIS; however, people with communication disabilities are frequently excluded from sharing their perspectives. So governments need to look for ways to make co-design communicatively accessible. This must include engaging with multiple modes of communication, including visual aids, key words, augmentative communication, and physical forms of expression. People with communication disability must play a central role in all stages of the policy design process: as informants, design partners and users.

NDIS funding models must cover making a person’s support and service network an accessible communication environment. People with communication disability tell us that time, sustained engagement and relationship building are essential. While strategies are person-specific, practical considerations include ensuring access to assistive equipment and devices, providing choices, checking own understanding, and paying attention to non-verbal communication.

The costs of doing so are offset by the economic value of better health and well-being, employment, education, health, leisure and access to justice.

As the disability royal commission showed, poor oversight has resulted in significant harm, with inadequate safety and incident reporting measures that have translated to increased risk for people experiencing barriers to communicating their concerns.

At a minimum, communication access standards should ensure disability providers have base-level skills to recognise and support diverse forms of communication. Feedback and complaint mechanisms must also go beyond traditional formats of written and verbal communication.

As a community we must learn, not just from the stories and experiences shared with and by the disability royal commission, but also from how people with disability were supported to provide them. Through acknowledgement of the diversity of communication and by providing communication supports, we now have the opportunity to build inclusive environments.

The Conversation

Abby Foster consults to and is a certified practising member of Speech Pathology Australia. She is a research affiliate with the Centre for Research Excellence in Aphasia Recovery and Rehabilitation. She is affiliated with Yes23 campaign and Healthy Futures

Lucette Lanyon consults on inclusion of people with communication disability within organisational structures and clinical research. She receives funding from the Stroke Foundation and is a research affiliate with the Centre for Research Excellence in Aphasia Recovery and Rehabilitation.

ref. For people with communication disability, complaining about their treatment isn’t so simple – https://theconversation.com/for-people-with-communication-disability-complaining-about-their-treatment-isnt-so-simple-214717

It’s not just Victoria’s iconic mountain ash trees at risk – it’s every species in their community

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Lindenmayer, Professor, The Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University

Shutterstock

When we think of extinction, we think of individual species. But nature doesn’t operate like that. Entire communities and even whole ecosystems are now so compromised they could be lost entirely. Australia now has about 100 ecological communities at risk.

One of those is the iconic Mountain Ash (Eucalyptus regnans) community in Victoria’s Central Highlands. Many of us know and love these regal trees, the tallest flowering plant in the world. But decades of logging, repeated wildfires, and fragmentation of these forests means they and the species which rely on them like Leadbeater’s possum and gliders now face existential threats.

In our new research, we point to the need to list the entire community as threatened.




Read more:
After the chainsaws, the quiet: Victoria’s rapid exit from native forest logging is welcome – and long overdue


How can ecological communities go extinct?

Australia is an enormous contributor to global biodiversity loss. A recent study found 97 species in Australia have now gone extinct since British colonisation in 1788, with roughly 10% of all native mammal species gone forever. The numbers would be higher if invertebrate losses were included.

Worldwide, roughly a million species are now at risk of extinction. Looming loss at this scale threatens entire ecological communities – or even whole ecosystems.

Under Australia’s biodiversity laws, ecological communities can be listed as threatened, endangered or critically endangered. About 100 ecological communities – defined as assemblages of species in a particular habitat – are currently at risk. But even this figure is likely to be a massive underestimate.

Many ecological communities are not on this list even though they probably should be. The reason for that is a lack of good data.

To find out whether a community is threatened requires a thorough assessment of many species and key ecological processes using high-quality long-term data.

These kinds of data aren’t available for many communities. But we have 40 years of detailed data for the Central Highlands Mountain Ash forests. So to find out whether they are truly threatened, we undertook a detailed assessment.

Why are these forests at risk of collapse?

These forests cover 140,000 hectares near Victorian towns like Marysville, Warburton and Healesville. They’re rich in biodiversity, including several threatened mammals and plants.

We focused on the Central Highlands because this area is home to the largest remaining forests of Mountain Ash – 44% of all remaining forest.

Much elsewhere has been lost. In South Gippsland, plantations, dairy and potato farms have replaced Mountain Ash forests, with only small fragments left.

Tasmania’s Mountain Ash forests are important, albeit less extensive than those in Victoria’s Central Highlands.

mountain ash forest
This is what mountain ash forests should look like – old growth trees stretching to the sky.
Esther Beaton/Author provided, CC BY-NC-ND

Our conclusion? Sadly, the Central Highlands Mountain Ash community is now eligible for listing as either endangered or critically endangered.

These forests are now largely regrowth. Many have been fragmented, making it harder for wildlife to cross between patches. Biodiversity is still declining, including threatened species, while changing fire regimes are placing intensive pressure on the remaining forests.

What happened here? These forests have been subject to decades of intensive clearfell logging, as well extensive cutting dating back to the late 1920s.

These pressures have made old growth a vanishing rarity, accounting for just over 1% of the remaining 137,000 hectares of Mountain Ash forest in the Central Highlands. The rest of the forest is often highly degraded.

The loss of almost all old growth has been devastating for species like Leadbeater’s possum, the southern greater glider and the yellow-bellied glider over the past 25 years. These animals must have nesting hollows to survive, and these only form when large old trees lose limbs – a process that can take well over 100 years.

And because the Mountain Ash community is dominated by younger trees, it is now at risk of reburning. Younger trees are highly fire-prone – even those regenerating from the Black Saturday fires of 2009. This has left the entire ecological community vulnerable to future fires.

Our analysis found nearly 70% of these forest communities are already either severely disturbed by fire and logging or exist within 70 metres of severely disturbed areas.

What would happen if Mountain Ash communities collapse?

These pressures have pushed these forests to the edge. They could readily collapse and be replaced by an entirely different community, dominated by wattles and prone to more fire, more often.

The collapse of the Mountain Ash community would have catastrophic implications for the five million people who live in Melbourne. The city’s famously good drinking water relies almost entirely on run-off from Mountain Ash forest to the east.

You might wonder – won’t the ending of industrial logging in January help? It might – if we undertake a massive restoration effort. Many tracts of forest are simply not regenerating after logging – up to 30%.

Restoring tree cover, species diversity and making the ecosystem functional again will take a great deal of work.

mountain ash forest failing to regenerate
Nature will bounce back, won’t it? Not always, as the failure of mountain ash to regenerate after logging or fire demonstrates.
Chris Taylor/Lachlan McBurney, CC BY-NC-ND

What can we do?

The case is compelling for listing Victoria’s Mountain Ash community as threatened.

Huge efforts will be required to stop the populations of animals such as the southern greater glider from plunging. Recently, we have been testing new nesting box designs to help populations recover. These boxes are meant to be a stop-gap substitute as nesting hollows to replace natural cavities.

We’ll also have to do our best to keep out high-intensity wildfire from as many areas of Mountain Ash forest as possible, so the young trees have a chance to mature and develop hollows.

This kind of restoration is compatible with efforts by conservationists to declare a Great Forest National Park to protect Mountain Ash communities.

It’s well established that protecting areas does work. For example, an estimated 25% of the world’s bird species are alive today because they have been protected in reserves.

Listing an ecological community as threatened isn’t a one-way street to extinction. We can – and have – reversed the damage for other communities and species. We need do it for Mountain Ash forests, and it must be done now.




Read more:
We can’t just walk away after the logging stops in Victoria’s native forests. Here’s what must happen next


The Conversation

David Lindenmayer receives funding from the Australian Government, and the Victorian Government. He is a Councillor with the Biodiversity Council and is a member of Birds Australia.

Elle Bowd has received funding from the Paddy Pallin Foundation, Centre of Biodiversity Analysis, the Ecological Society of Australia, New South Wales government and the Holsworth Wildlife Research Endowment fund.

Kita Ashman works for WWF Australia and is an Ambassador for Paddy Pallin.

Chris Taylor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. It’s not just Victoria’s iconic mountain ash trees at risk – it’s every species in their community – https://theconversation.com/its-not-just-victorias-iconic-mountain-ash-trees-at-risk-its-every-species-in-their-community-214582

Why the ‘drug dealers defence’ doesn’t work for exporting coal. It’s actually Economics 101

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland

In defending a Federal Court case brought by opponents of her decisions to approve two export coal mines, Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek is relying in part on what critics call the “drug dealer’s defence”.

It’s reasoning that argues: if we don’t sell this product, someone else will.

Prime Minister Albanese has argued the same thing, telling The Australian

policies that would just result in a replacement of Australian resources with resources that are less clean from other countries would lead to an increase in global emissions, not a decrease.

Albanese’s reasoning is that saying no to new Australian coal mines wouldn’t cut global emissions, it would just produce “less economic activity in Australia”.

If it sounds like a familiar argument, it is – past prime ministers and the coal industry have made similar claims for decades.

It’s possible to test this argument using economics, putting to one side the question of whether it is morally justifiable.

The defence works for drug dealers

Let’s look at how this defence works with retail drug dealers, many of whom are drug users themselves.

Street-level drug dealing is a job that doesn’t require much skill and pays above the minimum wage, even after allowing for the risk of arrest.

As a result, as soon as one dealer is arrested, someone will enter the market to replace the dealer. For this reason, drug policy has shifted away from traditional modes of street-level enforcement and towards community partnerships.

But coal is different. Global markets are supplied by a range of producers, each with different costs. Some mines can cover their costs even when world prices are low, others require very high world coal prices to break even.

In the case of metallurgical (coking) coal used to make steel, Australia’s mines are mostly at the low-cost end of the spectrum as shown below:


Indicative hard coking coal supply curve by mine, 2019


Thermal coal, used in electricity generation, is more complex, since much of the variation in price relates to its quality, rather than extraction cost.

Nevertheless, the fact remains that if one producer withdraws from the market or reduces output, it is highly unlikely to be replaced by an identical-cost producer.

It is likely instead to be replaced by a higher-cost supplier who needs a higher price to cover its costs. That’ll make the coal less attractive to the buyer who would have bought from the low-cost producer, making that buyer less likely to buy less of it.

This is Economics 101, illustrated in the supply and demand diagrams in just about every economics textbook.

Why Australia’s coal matters globally

In most markets, the demand curve is downward sloping, meaning the higher the price, the less the buyer wants.



Fifth Wheel Freight, Supply and Demand in the Transportation Industry

And in most markets, the supply curve is upward sloping, meaning the higher the price, the more the seller is prepared to sell.

What’s bought, and for how much, depends on where those curves meet.



Fifth Wheel Freight, Supply and Demand in the Transportation Industry

If the supply curve moves up, because the cost of supply has increased, the price at which the good is bought will move up and the quantity bought will move down.

In the figure below, the supply curve S1 is the current global supply.

If Australia supplies less coal, the supply curve will shift from S1 to S2, resulting in the higher price P2.

The higher price will result in increased supply from competitors, but also a reduction in the total amount consumed, a cut from Q1 to Q2.



This means that, contrary to government claims, our decisions will have an impact on global emissions and ultimately on global heating

Moreover, Australian decisions aren’t isolated.

All around the world, governments, financial institutions and civil society groups are grappling with the need to transition away from coal.

Proposals for new and expanded coal mines and coal-fired power stations face resistance at every step. In particular, the great majority of global banks and insurance companies now refuse to finance and insure new coal.

This means that the long-run response to a reduction in Australia’s supply of coal will involve less substitution and more of a drop in use than might be thought.

For coal, the drug dealer’s defence is shoddy

It makes the drug dealers defence for exporting coal especially shoddy.

It would be open to Plibersek to make another argument: that in the government’s political judgement, Australians are not willing to wear the short-run costs of a transition from coal, regardless of the impact on the global climate manifested every day in bushfires, floods and environmental destruction.

But instead, we are being told that if Australia cuts supply, other suppliers will rush in, without being told about their costs and what will happen next.

In markets like coal, with a fixed number of suppliers facing different costs, demand responds to the withdrawal of supply in the way the economics textbooks say it should.




Read more:
Yes, Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek approved a coal mine. But save the angst for decisions that matter more


The Conversation

John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority.

ref. Why the ‘drug dealers defence’ doesn’t work for exporting coal. It’s actually Economics 101 – https://theconversation.com/why-the-drug-dealers-defence-doesnt-work-for-exporting-coal-its-actually-economics-101-214588

Record immigration will put pressure on NZ’s population, infrastructure and productivity – where’s the election debate?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Spoonley, Distinguished Professor, College of Humanities and Social Sciences, Massey University

The concerns of various pundits and politicians earlier this year that New Zealand might struggle to attract immigrants turned out to be premature. In fact, the country’s population has been boosted to the extent it should be a bigger election issue than it is.

In the 12 months to July, total permanent migrant arrivals were 208,400 – exceeding previous levels by quite a margin. Accounting for permanent departures, the net population gain from immigrants has been 96,200.

That breaks all previous records, and even accounts for a return to the consistent pattern of a net loss of New Zealand citizens (39,500 in the same period). There is every indication the country will hit an annual net gain of 100,000 people.

At this rate, inward migration will provide a net annual population gain of 2% for 2023. Once natural increase is added (births over deaths being more than 20,000 a year), the overall rate will be around 2.3% to 2.4%. By contrast, the OECD average is less than 0.5%.

Auckland is beginning another period of rapid population growth, reversing the decline seen in 2021. The city’s growth accounts for around half of the country’s total net migration gain. Combined with a natural increase of around 7,000 to 8,000, it means the city will have significant population growth, even allowing for a net migration loss to other regions.

Some of this surge can be explained by the return to relative normal after pandemic restrictions were lifted. But there’s a range of other factors pushing people to New Zealand, including anti-immigrant politics and general disenchantment in other countries.

New Zealand is seen as a desirable destination. In a recent US survey Americans ranked New Zealand second on their list of “best countries” – ahead of the US itself.

Immigration and productivity

In 2021, at the request of the finance minister, the Productivity Commission examined the ways immigration settings would contribute to the “long-term prosperity and wellbeing” of the country.

The Immigration – Fit for the Future report released in 2022 provided a very complete review of the data and issues. While it indicated that immigration and immigrants have positive effects and outcomes for New Zealand, it also pointed to a lack of consistency and strategy, and little public accountability.




Read more:
Refugees who set up businesses enrich NZ financially, culturally and socially – they deserve more support


Key findings included what the commission referred to as “an infrastructure deficit” as investment failed to keep up with population growth. It also described a “reliance risk” on migrant labour that had “negative consequences on innovation and productivity”.

In the trade-off between a reliance on migrant labour or investing in new technologies, the concern is that migrant labour presents an easy win, with little incentive for employers to innovate.

Yet the significant implications of the current immigration surge for planning and productivity are noticeably absent from this election campaign.

The missing election issue

Mostly, the main parties are positive about the role and contribution of immigrants (unlike some countries where anti-migrant sentiment has been rising). But the parties are also mainly concerned with policy detail, not the bigger picture.

Labour, National, ACT and the Greens all propose family and parent visas. This is to be welcomed, as migration works best when extended families are involved. And there is a general recognition that talent recruitment needs more attention.




Read more:
Why has New Zealand welcomed Ukrainians fleeing war and not others trying to do the same?


Specifically, Labour wants Pasifika and other migrants who have been in New Zealand for ten years or more to gain residency. The Greens propose a review of refugee and asylum-seeker policy. National wants a new visa category for highly educated migrants. And ACT would require a regulatory impact analysis for all immigration policy.

For its part, New Zealand First refers back to its policies from the 2020 election. This includes statements about the negative impact of “cheap labour undermining New Zealand’s pay and conditions”, something the Productivity Commission found little evidence of.

But the party also suggested greater attention should be given to a more regionally dispersed population and the establishment of a 30-year population plan. Somewhat by default, then, New Zealand First highlights the gaps in other parties’ policy recommendations.




Read more:
Foreign policy has been missing from NZ’s election campaign – voters deserve answers to these big questions


Where is the population strategy?

A more robust and constructive election debate would have addressed those big gaps more directly.

What should be New Zealand’s annual target for migrants, both permanent and temporary? How do we meet the challenges created by the current high volume, including the processing of applications, potential for migrant exploitation, and the stress on services and infrastructure?

More broadly, shouldn’t we be looking at immigration policy in the context of all the elements in play? This would mean factoring in the rapid ageing of the population, declining fertility and very different regional demographic trajectories (with some places experiencing population stagnation or decline).

Asked in a recent radio interview about the housing and infrastructure challenges of immigration and record population growth, National leader (and potentially next prime minister) Christopher Luxon argued the numbers were a “catch-up” from the COVID years:

We’ve got to make sure immigration is always strongly linked to our economic agenda and where we have worker shortages.

This only emphasises the lack of a genuine national plan. Now that the workers kept out by COVID are flowing into the country in large numbers, the Productivity Commission’s observations and suggestions are more relevant than ever.

Otherwise, New Zealand risks allowing immigration to be the default answer to much harder questions about innovation, productivity and the development of a long-term population strategy.

The Conversation

Paul Spoonley has received funding from MBIE to research migrant flows and the impacts of diversity. This research ended in 2021.

ref. Record immigration will put pressure on NZ’s population, infrastructure and productivity – where’s the election debate? – https://theconversation.com/record-immigration-will-put-pressure-on-nzs-population-infrastructure-and-productivity-wheres-the-election-debate-214952

France ends 10-year UN ’empty chair’ decolonisation snub over Polynesia

ANALYSIS: By Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific French desk correspondent

After 10 years of non-attendance, France turned up to this week’s French Polynesia sitting of the UN Special Committee on Decolonisation (C-24) — but the French delegate did not deliver the message that pro-independence French Polynesian groups wanted to hear.

French Polynesia was re-inscribed to the United Nations (UN) list of non-self-governing territories in 2013.

Pro-independence leader Moetai Brotherson, President of French Polynesia, came to power in May 2023.

Since then he has claimed he received assurances from French President Emmanuel Macron that France would end its “empty chair” policy regarding UN decolonisation sessions on French Polynesia.

President Macron apparently kept his promise, but the message that the French Ambassador to the UN, Nicolas De Rivière, delivered was unambiguous.

He declared French Polynesia “has no place” on the UN list of non-autonomous territories because “French Polynesia’s history is not the history of New Caledonia”.

The indigenous Kanak peoples of New Caledonia, the other French Pacific dependency currently on the UN list, have actively pursued a pathway to decolonisation through the Noumea Accord and are still deep in negotiations with Paris about their political future.

French public media Polynésie 1ère TV quoted the ambassador as saying: “No process between France and French Polynesia allows a role for the United Nations.”

French Ambassador to the UN Nicolas De Rivière
French Ambassador to the UN Nicolas De Rivière . . . present this time but wants French Polynesia withdrawn from the UN decolonisation list. Image: RNZ Pacific

The ambassador also voiced France’s wish to have French Polynesia withdrawn from the UN list. At the end of his statement, the Ambassador left the room, leaving a junior agent to sit in his place.

This was just as more than 40 pro-independence petitioners were preparing to make their statements.

Tahiti's new President Moetai Brotherson
Tahiti’s President Moetai Brotherson . . . pro-independence but speaking on behalf of “all [French] Polynesians, including those who do not want independence today.” Image: Polynésie 1ère TV screenshot/APR

This is not an unfamiliar scene. Over the past 10 years, at similar UN sessions, when the agenda would reach the item of French Polynesia, the French delegation would leave the room.

The C-24 session started on Tuesday morning.

This week, French Polynesia’s 40-plus strong — mostly pro-independence delegation — of petitioners included the now-ruling Tavini Huiraatira party, members of the civil society, the local Māohi Protestant Church, and nuclear veterans associations and members of the local Parliament (the Territorial Assembly) and French Polynesian MPs sitting at the French National Assembly in Paris.

It also included President Moetai Brotherson from Tavini.

French position on decolonisation unchanged
For the past 10 years, since it was re-inscribed on the UN list, French Polynesia has sent delegates to the meeting, with the most regular attendees being from the Tavini Huiraatira party:

“I was angry because the French ambassador left just before our petitioners were about to take the floor [. . . ] I perceived this as a sign of contempt on the part of France,” said Hinamoeura Cross, a petitioner and a pro-independence member of French Polynesia’s Territorial Assembly, reacting this week to the French envoy’s appearance then departure, Polynésie 1ère TV reports.

Since being elected to the top post in May 2023, President Brotherson has stressed that independence, although it remains a long-term goal, is not an immediate priority.

Days after his election, after meeting French President Macron for more than an hour, he said he was convinced there would be a change in France’s posture at the UN C-24 committee hearing and an end to the French “empty chair policy”.

“I think we should put those 10 years of misunderstanding, of denial of dialogue [on the part of France] behind us [. . .]. Everyone can see that since my election, the relations with France have been very good [. . . ]. President Macron and I have had a long discussion about what is happening [at the UN] and the way we see our relations with France evolve,” he told Tahiti Nui Télévision earlier this week from New York.

President ‘for all French Polynesians’ – Brotherson
President Brotherson also stressed that this week, at the UN, he would speak as President of French Polynesia on behalf of “all [French] Polynesians, including those who do not want independence today”.

“So in my speech I will be very careful not to create confusion between me coming here [at the UN] to request the implementation of a self-determination process, and me coming here to demand independence which is beside the point,” he added in the same interview.

He conceded that at the same meeting, delegates from his own Tavini party were likely to deliver punchier, more “militant”, speeches “because this is Tavini’s goal”.

“But as for me, I speak as President of French Polynesia.”

Ahead of the meeting, Tavini Huiraatira pro-independence leader Oscar Temaru said that “It’s the first time a pro-independence President of French Polynesia will speak at the UN (C-24) tribune”.

Temaru, 78, was French Polynesia’s president in 2013 when it was reinscribed to the UN list.

Speaking of the different styles between him and his 54-year-old son-in-law — Moetai Brotherson is married to Temaru’s daughter — Temaru said this week: “He has his own strategy and I have mine and mine has not changed one bit [. . .] this country must absolutely become a sovereign state.

“Can you imagine? Overnight, we would own this country of five million sq km. Today, we have nothing.”

French Minister of Home Affairs and Overseas Gérald Darmanin wrote on the social media platform X, previously Twitter, earlier this week: “On this matter just like on other ones, [France] is working with elected representatives in a constructive spirit and in the respect of the territory’s autonomy and of France’s sovereignty.”

Darmanin has already attended the C-24 meeting when it considered New Caledonia.

The United Nations list of non-self-governing territories currently includes 17 territories world-wide and six of those are located in the Pacific — American Samoa, French Polynesia, Guam, New Caledonia, Pitcairn Island and Tokelau.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

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Why the government’s plan to overhaul the asylum system is a smart use of resources – and might just work

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daniel Ghezelbash, Associate Professor and Deputy Director, Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law, UNSW Law & Justice, UNSW Sydney, UNSW Sydney

Immigration Minister Andrew Giles today announced significant changes aimed at restoring the integrity of Australia’s refugee protection system.

The key focus is on reducing the significant backlogs in the processing and reviewing of protection visa applications once people apply for asylum in Australia.

The aim is to ensure people who fear persecution or other serious rights abuses can be granted protection quickly. This will, Giles says, allow them to “rebuild their lives with certainty and stability”.

According to Giles, “Australians are rightly proud of our country’s generous refugee program”. But there is no denying the current onshore protection system is broken.

The focus of successive governments in recent years has been on blocking and punishing asylum seekers who attempt to reach Australia by boat. This has distracted both the public – and the government – from the serious systemic issues slowing down access to protection here in Australia.

A decade for a final decision

The onshore protection system covers people who arrive in Australia on a valid visa – such as a tourist or student visa – and then apply for asylum.

Some people have valid protection claims, some don’t. A key problem is that processing times for these claims have been ballooning in recent years. On average, it now takes around 2.4 years for an initial decision on a protection claim to be made by the Department of Home Affairs. If the application is denied, it takes another 3.6 years to seek a merits review of the claim at the Administrative Appeals Tribunal. And if it’s denied again, there’s an additional 5.1 years for judicial review by the courts.

As a result, some people have had to wait as long as 11 years for a final decision. Such delays have a devastating impact on people with genuine asylum claims, who are forced to live in limbo and uncertainty for lengthy periods of time.

On the flipside, these delays have also been “motivating bad actors” to take advantage of the system by lodging increasing numbers of “non-genuine applications for protection”, according to the Nixon report, a review into the exploitation of Australia’s visa system by Victoria’s former police chief commissioner, Christine Nixon, which was released this week.




Read more:
Visa exploitation review urges tougher penalties and a ban on temporary migrants in sex work. Would this solve the problem?


The proposed changes

In this context, we welcome the A$160 million investment announced by the government today to implement a faster and fairer onshore protection system. This will increase the decision-making capacity across the whole asylum system. The funding includes:

  • $54 million for the initial processing of claims by Home Affairs

  • $58 million for the appointment of ten additional members to the Administrative Appeals Tribunal, the body that reviews claims that have been rejected

  • and ten additional judges to the Federal Circuit and Family Court.

Another $48 million will be provided for legal assistance to support people through the complex asylum application process – something we have long called for.

There is a wealth of evidence demonstrating legal assistance increases the fairness and efficiency of the asylum process. Research by the Kaldor Centre Data Lab found asylum applicants with legal representation are, on average, five times more likely to succeed on a merits review than applicants who represent themselves. They are also six times more likely to succeed at the judicial review stage.

There is a wealth of similar research from other countries, including Canada, Switzerland and the United States, showing legal representation makes the entire system more efficient.




Read more:
How refugees succeed in visa reviews: new research reveals the factors that matter


This is because refugee lawyers provide a very important “triage” service in the process. Their specialised understanding of the law – as well as the social and political conditions from which asylum seekers have fled – means they only take on cases they feel have merit. In this way, lawyers help reduce the number of unmeritorious claims reaching tribunals and courts.

Refugee lawyers also help asylum seekers prepare their statements coherently and systematically. They identify relevant evidence and legal principles, which assists decision-makers to focus on the key aspects of the claim.

When an asylum seeker is unrepresented, decision-makers have to spend much more time ensuring the applicant understands the process and possible outcomes. They also want to ensure the person feels they have had a fair hearing. Overall, this is an inefficient use of public resources.

Smarter use of resources

These reforms represent a significant departure from Australia’s previous attempts to increase the efficiency of Australia’s asylum processes. Over the past three decades, successive governments have instead limited the rights of people seeking asylum – including by cutting funding for legal support.

Our research has made clear these efforts have almost always backfired, leading to more appeals and longer delays.

The most egregious example is the so-called “fast-track” procedure for processing the claims of certain asylum seekers who arrive by boat. Not only is the procedure unfair, but (contrary to its name) it has also been excruciatingly slow.




Read more:
Australia’s temporary visa system is unfair, expensive, impractical and inconsistent. Here’s how the new government could fix it


Now, to help speed up the asylum process more broadly, the government is implementing a new approach called “real-time priority processing” of protection visa applications at Home Affairs. This will involve a “last in, first out” approach that prioritises new asylum applications for rapid processing.

The rationale is this will de-incentivise unmeritorious applications and abuse of the asylum system.

While this makes sense as an interim measure as the government works through its significant backlogs, we still need a wider discussion on different approaches to prioritising claims. We need to ensure government resources are being used most efficiently and in the best interests of people seeking asylum.

There are potential lessons Australia can draw on from overseas. Canada, for example, prioritises and fast tracks applications that have a high likelihood of success. Switzerland accelerates cases with both high and low chances of success. Only complex cases requiring further investigation take longer to resolve.

To ensure fairness, Switzerland also provides universal access to government-funded legal representation. We need to spend more time examining these models to see what we can learn and adopt in Australia.

The Kaldor Centre is continuing this process by hosting a conference in Sydney next month which will discuss how we can ensure fairness for people seeking protection in the decade ahead. However, the central focus of the announcement this week on increasing the quality and capacity of Australia’s asylum system is a welcome first step in the right direction.

The Conversation

Daniel Ghezelbash receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the NSW Government. He is a member of the management committee of Refugee Advice and Casework Services and a Special Counsel at the National Justice Project.

Jane McAdam receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

ref. Why the government’s plan to overhaul the asylum system is a smart use of resources – and might just work – https://theconversation.com/why-the-governments-plan-to-overhaul-the-asylum-system-is-a-smart-use-of-resources-and-might-just-work-215061

Should you charge your phone overnight? Will ‘overcharging’ make it explode? Common battery myths debunked

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ritesh Chugh, Associate Professor – Information and Communications Technology, CQUniversity Australia

Shutterstock

In the world of lithium-ion batteries, smartphones take centre stage. Yet they’ve also sparked an ongoing debate: does prolonged (or overnight) charging wreak havoc on your battery?

A number of factors determine a phone battery’s lifespan, including its manufacturing age and its chemical age. The latter refers to the battery’s gradual degradation due to variables such as fluctuations in temperature, charging and discharging patterns and overall usage.

Over time, the chemical ageing of lithium-ion batteries reduces charge capacity, battery lifespan and performance.

According to Apple:

A normal [iPhone] battery is designed to retain up to 80% of its original capacity at 500 complete charge cycles when operating under normal conditions.

Research has found a 2019 smartphone battery could, on average, undergo 850 full charge/discharge cycles before dropping to below 80% capacity. This means only 80% of the initial battery capacity remains after about two to three years of use. At this point the battery begins to deplete noticeably faster.

Should you charge your phone overnight?

Most new-generation smartphones will take somewhere between 30 minutes and two hours to charge fully.

Charging times vary depending on your device’s battery capacity – larger capacities require more time – as well as how much power your charger supplies.

Charging your phone overnight is not only unnecessary, it also accelerates battery ageing. Full charging cycles (going from 0%–100%) should be avoided to maximise your battery’s lifespan.

Samsung says:

charging your battery up to 100% too frequently may negatively impact the overall lifespan of the battery.

Similarly, keeping iPhones at full charge for extended periods may compromise their battery health.

Rather than a full top-up, it’s recommended to charge your battery up to 80% and not allow it to dip under 20%.

Can your phone be overcharged?

In theory, lithium-ion batteries can be overcharged. This can lead to safety risks such as the battery overheating and catching fire. The good news is most modern phones have an in-built protection that automatically stops the battery from charging further than 100% – preventing any damage from overcharging.

However, each time a battery drops to 99% (due to apps running in the background) it will “trickle charge”: it will start charging again to maintain a fully charged state.

Trickle charging can wear a battery down over time. That’s why many manufacturers have features to regulate it. Apple’s iPhones offer functionality to delay charging past 80%. Samsung’s Galaxy phones provide the option to cap the charge at 85%.

Can your phone explode from charging?

It’s very unlikely your smartphone will explode as a result of charging – especially since most phones now have automatic protections against overcharging.

Still, over the years we have seen several reports of phones exploding unexpectedly. This usually happens as a result of manufacturing faults, poor-quality hardware or physical damage.

Lithium-ion phone batteries overheat when the heat generated during charging is unable to dissipate. This may cause burns or, in extreme cases, lead to a fire.

Also, these batteries operate effectively within a temperature range of 0℃ to 40℃. They may expand at higher ambient temperatures, potentially causing a fire or explosion.

Using an incorrect, faulty or poor-quality charger or cable can also lead to overheating, fire hazards and damage to the phone itself.




Read more:
Phone wet and won’t turn on? Here’s how to deal with water damage (hint: soaking it in rice won’t work)


Tips to enhance your battery’s lifespan

Although your phone probably has in-built safety mechanisms to protect its battery, taking a cautious approach will make it last even longer. Here are some ways to protect your phone’s battery:

  1. install the latest software updates to keep your phone up-to-date with the manufacturer’s battery efficiency enhancements

  2. use original or certified power chargers, as the power delivery (amps, volts and watts) in off-market chargers can differ and may not meet the required safety standards

  3. avoid exposing your phone to high temperatures – Apple and Samsung say their phones work best at 0℃ to 35℃ ambient temperatures

  4. limit your charging to 80% of the full capacity and don’t let it dip below 20%

  5. don’t leave your phone charging for an extended period, such as overnight, and disconnect it from the power source if the battery reaches 100%

  6. keep your phone in a well-ventilated area while it’s charging and avoid placing it or the charger under a blanket, pillow or your body while it’s connected to a power source

  7. monitor your battery health and use to identify unusual trends, such as taking an excessive time to charge, or rapid draining

  8. if you notice your phone is heating up excessively, or has a bulging or swollen back, get an authorised service centre to check and repair it.

If you want specific details about your particular phone and battery, the best option is to follow the manufacturer’s guidelines.




Read more:
It’s 2022. Why do we still not have waterproof phones?


The Conversation

Ritesh Chugh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Should you charge your phone overnight? Will ‘overcharging’ make it explode? Common battery myths debunked – https://theconversation.com/should-you-charge-your-phone-overnight-will-overcharging-make-it-explode-common-battery-myths-debunked-214956

Suicide rates jumped after extreme drought in the Murray-Darling Basin – we have to do better as climate change intensifies

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Ann Wheeler, Professor in Water Economics, University of Adelaide

The impact on mental health of weather extremes such as drought is a growing concern due to climate change.

Rural communities feel the impact of drought much more than urban residents. Our new research looks at the link between drought and suicide rates in one of Australia’s biggest farming areas, the Murray-Darling Basin.

Drawing on monthly data from 2006 to 2016, our findings were alarming. We found, for instance, that one more month of extreme drought in the previous 12 months was strongly associated with a 32% increase in monthly suicide rates.

Climate change is predicted to bring more heat and longer, more extreme droughts. More effective approaches will be needed to prevent suicides in affected regions.




Read more:
Drought increases rural suicide, and climate change will make drought worse


Drought hits rural areas hardest

Droughts induce post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety and depression. Hotter temperatures can also reduce levels of the brain chemical serotonin. This has negative effects on the central nervous system and moods.

In Australia, suicide is a leading cause of death – especially for people aged 18-44. And the suicide rate in remote areas is almost double that of major cities. This is because drought can:

Research overseas found suicide rates rise with higher average temperatures. In Australia, a study found some evidence linking drought and suicide in New South Wales. However, a Victorian study found no significant association.




Read more:
Bushfires, drought, COVID: why rural Australians’ mental health is taking a battering


What happened in the basin?

Our study looked at the Murray-Darling Basin. The region went through one of the worst droughts on record, the Millennium Drought, over the past couple of decades.

We analysed local area monthly data from 2006-16. We wanted to see whether worsening drought and heat were linked to higher monthly suicide rates, by examining differing types of droughts (moderate to extreme).

The map below shows the average suicide rate for 2006-2016 in local areas across the basin. Male suicide rates were over three times female rates.

Average suicide rate per 100,000 by local area in the Murray Darling Basin.
Source: Xu et al (2023) using data from National Cause of Death Unit Record File from Australian Coordinating Registry (2006-2016) and ABS Population Census, 2006, 2011, 2016

We sought to control for as many local area characteristics as possible. Our modelling included unemployment, income, education, proportion of farmers, proportion of Indigenous people, health professionals, green space and various climate and drought variables. We modelled suicide rates for different age and gender sub-groups.

Key findings include:

  • one more month of extreme drought in the previous 12 months was strongly associated with the total suicide rate increasing by 32%
  • one more month of moderate drought in the previous 12 months was very weakly associated with a 2% increase in the suicide rate
  • a 1℃ increase in average monthly maximum temperature in the previous 12 months was associated with up to an 8% increase in the suicide rate
  • in males and younger age groups, suicide rates are more strongly associated with extreme drought and higher temperatures
  • a higher proportion of farmers in a local area was associated with an increased suicide rate
  • a higher proportion of First Nations people in a local area was also associated with higher suicide rates
  • more green space was significantly associated with moderating impacts of both extreme drought and temperature on suicide rates
  • an increase in average annual household income moderated the relationship between higher temperature and suicide.

Our results suggest the association between moderate drought and suicide rates is significant but the effect was small. As the drought becomes extreme, suicide rates increase significantly.




Read more:
New findings show a direct causal relationship between unemployment and suicide


What can we do better to prevent suicides?

Given drought’s impact on farm production and finances, mental health will clearly get worse in rural areas if the impacts of climate change are not better managed.

Mental health interventions to prevent suicide in rural areas are different from what’s needed in urban areas. Areas in the basin with higher percentages of farmers and First Nations people were hot spots. These areas may need special intervention.

Many have emphasised the need for a systems approach to suicide prevention. Actions need to be multifaceted and co-ordinated as well as possible. One intervention or approach is not enough.




Read more:
Hairdressers in rural Australia end up being counsellors too


Interventions in the bush range from telehealth and medical services to primary health networks services, men’s sheds and drought counselling.

The relationship between drought and financial hardship seems to be key in farming areas. This points to the need for other forms of income on the farm, including from native vegetation and carbon credits. Work can also be done to promote drought preparedness, increase appropriate regional economic, social development and environmental policies and – where necessary – help people leave farming.


If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.

The Conversation

Sarah Ann Wheeler has received funding from the Australian Research Council; GRDC; Wine Australia; MDBA; CRC Food Waste; CSIRO; Goyder Institute; SA Department of Environment and Water; ACCC; NT Department of Environment, Parks and Water Security; NSW Health; Commonwealth Department of Agriculture and Water; Meat and Livestock Australia; ACIAR; RIRDC; UNECE; NCCARF; National Water Commission; and the Government of Netherlands.

Alec Zuo receives funding from the Australian Research Council, GRDC, ACCC, NSW Health, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, ACIAR, NCCARF, and the National Water Commission.

Ying Xu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Suicide rates jumped after extreme drought in the Murray-Darling Basin – we have to do better as climate change intensifies – https://theconversation.com/suicide-rates-jumped-after-extreme-drought-in-the-murray-darling-basin-we-have-to-do-better-as-climate-change-intensifies-211107

NZ’s political leaders are ignoring the mounting threats from AI – and that’s putting everyone at risk

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Lensen, Senior Lecturer in Artificial Intelligence | Pūkenga Matua, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

As the 2023 election campaign enters its final days, there is an elephant in the room that politicians seem keen to ignore: the rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and what it will mean for New Zealand’s economy, politics and society.

Developments over the past year, such as ChatGPT and Midjourney, have AI experts worried about the deeper consequences of these digital tools.

And they’re not alone. Global market research firm Ipsos found 63% of New Zealanders were nervous about AI, even though only 35% understand where it’s being used.

As a society, we rely on the government to take the lead on important issues like this. But there has been barely a peep on the topic from those seeking election this year. That relative silence should concern everyone.

The AI future is geting closer

During a recent election debate, the leaders of both major political parties were asked if AI was a threat to humanity. Labour’s Chris Hipkins said “potentially”, while National’s Christopher Luxon said “there are good and bad parts”.

The leaders were also asked about a potential tax on AI to support workers who will eventually lose their jobs to this kind of technology. Hipkins said he was “not sure how to do that”, and Luxon said he thought “we are a long way from that”.

But we’re not.

In May 2023, 4,000 jobs were lost to AI in the United States alone. Global business consulting firm McKinsey has said 12 million American workers will need to switch jobs by 2030 as a consequence of generative AI – artificial intelligence capable of generating text, images and other media.




Read more:
Artificial Intelligence should benefit society, not create threats


But AI will have wider societal implications than its impact on jobs. Over the past two decades, social media has contributed to a rise in misinformation, disinformation and political polarisation. New and more human-like AI bots – software programmed to complete repetitive tasks automatically – will make these threats even more pervasive, and more difficult to combat.

The use of AI in health, government, employment and other contexts has the potential to reinforce existing biases and prejudices, leading to inequitable outcomes.

This is especially true in Aotearoa, where AI models trained on Westernised data are ignorant of Māori tikanga and data sovereignty. AI is also putting minority languages at risk by defaulting to English

New Zealand is falling behind

The New Zealand government has been enthusiastic in using AI across the public service – from optimal scheduling of public hospital beds to helping decide whether an offender should be released from prison. But local lawmakers have been falling behind the rest of the world when it comes to regulating the technology.

The European Union’s AI Act is expected to pass into law by the end of 2023. This legislation is complex, but at its core it will classify AI tools into different categories of risk (from banned uses to no risk), with corresponding legislative requirements for deployment and monitoring.

The Union’s data privacy laws may also provide citizens with the “right to an explanation” on decisions made by AI systems.

Canada has announced a voluntary code of conduct with six core principles for organisations to follow when developing safe and responsible generative AI systems.

Even in the US – considered the centre of AI innovation – individual states are passing laws addressing the perceived threats of AI. At the federal level, the senate judiciary has held hearings on the regulation of AI.




Read more:
We need to prepare for the public safety hazards posed by artificial intelligence


There may be (small) signs of progress at home. In July, the office of the Prime Minister’s Chief Science Adviser released an article about New Zealand’s current response to AI and the challenges around regulation.

Labour’s recently released election manifesto mentions AI twice in its 74 pages, with a promise of a “just transition” for AI-affected workers. But the manifesto doesn’t describe what this transition would look like.

National’s “Boosting the Tech Sector” policy document states that a new “minister of technology” will ensure AI is used “safely and ethically” – without detailing what this means or how it will be enforced.

The Green Party’s digital policy provides overarching principles for regulating digital technology, such as social responsibility (reducing inequality) and honouring Te Tiriti. Again, however, the policy does not specifically address AI.

The other parties do not appear to have readily available technology policies on their websites.

Leaders need to go further on AI

Clearly, there is a way to go on policy development. New Zealand needs stronger data privacy laws recognising data is a taonga (treasure), and which require informed consent for use in AI training and processing.

Well-resourced, specialised policing that can investigate the use of deepfakes for identity theft and revenge porn are also needed.

And there needs to be regulation on what is and isn’t allowed to be automated with AI. For example, should the government automate benefit eligibility decisions or should the justice system use AI for low-level sentencing?

Economically, how can the profits of AI applications that use local data be kept within New Zealand? In the absence of a clear, homegrown AI strategy, Aotearoa will miss out on the opportunity to foster AI that benefits everyone.

Without active government regulation, New Zealanders and their political system could be vulnerable to manipulation by malign foreign interests.

The country needs to invest in its workforce to meet the changes being wrought by AI, and embrace Māori-driven AI research that establishes New Zealand as a creator of technologies that work for its people, not against them.

The Conversation

Andrew Lensen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. NZ’s political leaders are ignoring the mounting threats from AI – and that’s putting everyone at risk – https://theconversation.com/nzs-political-leaders-are-ignoring-the-mounting-threats-from-ai-and-thats-putting-everyone-at-risk-214714

Pacific Media Network launches new ‘Moanaverse’ digital website

Pacific Media Watch

Pacific Media Network (PMN) has continued its transition into the “Moanaverse” with a new digital home for its news and media

PMN said in a statement it was pleased to reveal its new website that “ensures the future of Pacific storytelling, radio and news media continues to connect with its growing online audience”.

Pacific communities were at the heart of the new website www.pmn.co.nz, said CEO Don Mann.

“PMN’s new digital platform is all about serving the Pacific community. The stories we share deserve an online space that upholds the mana and respect of Pacific people,” he said.

“We have an obligation to provide a digital home that best serves the interests of the Pacific community.”

The redesigned site makes it easier to discover its brands — Niu FM, 531pi, PMN News — and its 10 language programmes all in one place.

Included in the refresh was a branding approach that seeks to connect and be relevant with an increasingly digitally savvy Pacific youth audience.

The project was completed within a year and was led by web agency Daylight Group, the team behind award winning site The Spinoff.

“We liken our online space to a digital version of a kupega or upega: a net that seeks to contain Pacific knowledge that sustains us and to share this koloa across the Moanaverse,” Mann said.

The main colour tapa black is an intentional neutral backdrop that “holds the vibrancy of our islands”.

The site is said by PMN to be mobile-friendly, optimising the display for any screen size so content can be accessed “on the go”.

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Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

West Papuan, Indonesian youth protest over ‘illegal’ 1962 Rome Agreement

SPECIAL REPORT: By Yamin Kogoya

The Indonesian People’s Front for West Papua (FRI-WP) and the Papuan Student Alliance (AMP) have denounced the Rome Agreement of 30 September 1962 as “illegal” during protest speeches marking the 61st anniversary last Saturday.

The groups gathered at several places throughout Indonesia to hold peaceful protests and speeches.

The protesters held a public discussion and protest in Yogyakarta, Lombok, West Nusa Tenggara, Ternate, East Java and North Maluku.

Some protesters were met by hardliner groups of Indonesians who claimed they were supported and protected by the Indonesian police.

The Facebook page of AMP reports that peaceful demonstrations were also scheduled for September 30 in Kupan city but were obstructed by Garuda reactionaries, known as ORMAS (Civic Organisation Group) and police officers.

Some conversations were extremely racist, indicating that both the police and state are still maintaining a policy of racism.

Protests such as these are not unusual. Papuan students and their Indonesian supporters do this annually in order to draw attention to Indonesia’s illegal occupation of West Papua, which violates international law and the UN Charters on self-determination and decolonisation.

This time, the protest was over the Rome Agreement.

In 2021, an attempt to stage a protest in front of the US Embassy in central Jakarta was also made, but 17 AMP Papuan students were arrested.

What the protests are against
These protests across Indonesia may be dismissed by mainstream media as insignificant. But for Papuans, they are actually most significant.

The theme is protesting against what Papuans see as the “genesis” of a betrayal with lies, deceit, and manipulation by powerful international actors that sealed Papua’s fate with Indonesia.

This set a stage of gross human rights violations and exploitation of West Papua’s natural resources, which has been going on since these agreements were signed.

They were treaties, agreements, discussions, and decisions concerning West Papua’s future made by state and multinational actors without Papuan input — ultimately leading to West Papua’s “destruction”.

According to the AMP, the agreement between the Netherlands, Indonesia, the United Nations (UN) and the United States was manipulated to gain control over Papua, reports Suara Kalbar.

The AMP Papuan students and their Indonesian solidarity groups stated that the September 1962 Rome Agreement, followed by the signing of the New York Agreement on August 15, 1962, was reached without the involvement of any representatives of the Papuan people.

The protesters’ highlighted these flaws of the Rome Agreement that:

  1. The Act of Free Choice to be delayed or cancelled;
  2. “Musyawarah” (a form of Indonesian consensus building) be used rather than one-person-one-vote;
  3. The UN report to the UNGA be accepted without debate;
  4. Indonesia would rule West Papua for 25 years after 1963;
  5. The US could exploit natural resources in partnership with Indonesian state companies; and
  6. The US would underwrite an Asian Development Bank grant for US$30 million and guarantee World Bank funds for a transmigration programme beginning in 1977.

The agreement signed by Indonesia, the Netherlands and the United States was a very controversial with 29 articles stipulating the New York agreement, which regulates 3 things, where articles 14-21 regulate self-determination based on the international practice of one person one vote; and articles 12 and 13 governing the transfer of the administration from the United Nations Temporary Executive (UNTEA) to Indonesia.

Thus, this agreement allowed Indonesia’s claim to the land of Papua, which had been carried out after the transfer of control of West Papua from Dutch to Indonesia through UNTEA on 1 May 1963.

West Papua ‘conditioned’
The student protesters argued that prior to 1963 Indonesia had already conditioned West Papua by conducting military operations and suppressing the pro-independence movement, reports Koran Kejora.

Ironically, the protesters say, even before the process of self-determination was carried out on 7 April 1967, Freeport, the state-owned “mining company of American imperialism”, had signed its first contract with Indonesia.

This meant that West Papua had already been claimed by Indonesia through Freeport’s first contract two years before the Act of Free Choice was conducted, reports Koran Kehora.

The Act of Free Choice itself “was a sham”, only 1025 out of 809,337 Papuans with the right to vote had been quarantined or voted, and only 175 of them voiced their opinion, protesters said.

Despite its undemocratic nature, terror, intimidation, manipulation, and gross human rights violations, with the implementation of the Act of Free Choice, Indonesia legitimised its illegal claim to West Papua.

Igin Kogoya, a coordinator for AMP and Indonesian supporters in Malang, said in a media release that Indonesia did not carry out the agreement in accordance with the New York Agreement, reports Jubi.

Instead, Indonesia uses a variety of military operations to condition the region and suppress the independence movement of West Papuans.

“Therefore, before the self-determination process was carried out in 1969, Freeport, the imperialist state-owned mining company of the United States, signed its first contract of work with the Indonesian government illegally on 7 April 1967.”

Early Freeport mine deal
Naldo Wasiage of AMP Lombok and Benjos of FRI-WP Lombok claimed colonial Indonesia had made claims to the West Papua region with Freeport’s first contract two years before the Act of Free Choice was passed.

Today, Indonesia’s reform, terror, intimidation, and incarceration, as well as the shootings and murders of Papuans, still occurring.

The human rights of the Papuan people are insignificant and hold no value for Indonesia.

The Military Operation Area was implemented throughout West Papua before and after the illegal Act of Free Choice. This clearly demonstrates that Indonesia’s desire to colonise West Papua until the present.

When asked about the Rome Agreement, Andrew Johnson, an Australian who has been researching international documents and treaties related to West Papua’s “betrayal”, said:

In order to invest billions of dollars in looting West Papua, Freeport would need assurances that Indonesia would be able to deliver access to the region. A Rome Agreement-type document would provide this assurance.

Victor Yeimo: Unveiling the atrocities
After being released from the Indonesian legal system and prison on 23 September 2023, Victor Yeimo addressed thousands of Papuans in Waena Jayapura by saying:

The Papuan people have long suffered under a dehumanising paradigm, which denies our inalienable rights to be human in our own land.

Yeimo said that the Papuan people in West Papua were systematically excluded from any decision-making processes that shaped their own future.

Jakarta’s oppressive control led to arbitrary policies and laws imposed on West Papuans, disregarding their voices and aspirations. This exclusion highlighted the colonisers’ desire to maintain control and dominance, he said.

The ratification of Special Autonomy, Volume II, serves as an example of Jakarta’s deception. The Papuan People’s Council (MRP), entrusted with representing the special autonomy law, was sidelined, rendering their role meaningless.

Jakarta’s military intervention further emphasised the denial of Papuan rights.

The expansion of five new autonomous provinces in West Papua deepens the marginalisation of indigenous Papuans. This move reinforces the grip of Indonesian colonialism, eroding the cultural identity of the Papuan people.

Jakarta’s tactics, supported by state intelligence and collaboration with local elites, legitimised its oppressive control, Yeimo said.

The state intelligence agency (BIN) in Jakarta manipulated conflict between Papuan groups and tribes to perpetuate hostility and division. By sowing seeds of discord, the colonisers sought to weaken the collective strength of the Papuan people and divert their attention away from their own oppressive actions.

Under Indonesian colonial rule, property, wealth and position held little significance for the Papuan people, Yeimo said.

Relying on hollow promises and pseudo-offers from the oppressors would never lead to justice, welfare, or peace. It was time to reject the deceptive allure of colonialism and focus on reclaiming autonomy and dignity, Yeimo told his people.

Embracing nationalistic ideals was crucial in the Papuan struggle for liberation. Indigenous Papuans must question their own participation in Indonesian colonialism.

Working for the colonisers as bureaucratic elites or bourgeois elites does not uphold their humanity or dignity. It is time to reclaim their autonomy and fight for their freedom.

Yamin Kogoya is a West Papuan academic who has a Master of Applied Anthropology and Participatory Development from the Australian National University and who contributes to Asia Pacific Report. From the Lani tribe in the Papuan Highlands, he is currently living in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.

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Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

New path for early human migrations through a once-lush Arabia contradicts a single ‘out of Africa’ origin

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Petraglia, Director, Australian Research Centre for Human Evolution, Griffith University

A general view of Wadi Gharandal riverine wetland, along the Jordan Rift Valley, showing palm trees concentrated at the centre of the wadi near the active spring. Mahmoud Abbas

Our species, Homo sapiens, migrated out of Africa multiple times – reaching the Levant and Arabia between 130,000 and 70,000 years ago, as exemplified by human fossils and archaeological sites found at various locations.

Little is known, however, about the pathways of these migrations. In a study published today in Science Advances, we find the now inhospitable and hyper-arid zone of the southern Jordan Rift Valley was frequently lush and well-watered in the past.

Our evidence suggests this valley had a riverine and wetland zone that would have provided ideal passage for hunter-gatherers as they moved out of Africa and deep into the Levant and Arabia.

Wandering out of Africa

Researchers hypothesise humans migrating out of Africa would have used platforms in the eastern Sahara, the Nile River Valley, or the margins of the western Red Sea.

From there, these small bands of hunter-gatherers would have passed into the Sinai – a land bridge connecting Africa with the rest of Asia – following migrating animals and hunting a variety of them for sustenance.

For many of these hunter-gatherers, the next stop on the journey would have been the southern portion of the Jordan Rift Valley. This valley is situated in a strategic zone, with the Dead Sea to the north and the Gulf of Aqaba in the south.

Our field work was concentrated on three sites. The first two were Wadi Gharandal and an area near the village of Gregra – both in the valley itself. The third site, Wadi Hasa, is located in the more elevated areas of the Jordan plateau.

“Wadi” is an Arabic word describing a temporary riverbed that only contains water during heavy rains.

We researched three sites, including two wadis and an area near a village called Gregra.
Mahmoud Abbas

When Arabia was a verdant land

Our goal was to reconstruct the region’s past environmental settings by accurately dating various sections of sediment. We used a technique called luminescence dating to estimate how long sediment grains had been shielded from sunlight, thereby allowing us to calculate how old they were.

Our findings from sedimentary sections ranging 5 to 12 metres in thickness showed ecosystem fluctuations over time, including cycles of dry and humid environments. We also found evidence for the presence of ancient rivers and wetlands.

Luminescence dating showed the sedimentary environments formed between 125,000 and 43,000 years ago, suggesting there had been multiple wet intervals.

At Wadi Gharandal, our team recovered three stone tools associated with a wetland environment. Two of these were made using the Levallois method – a characteristic manufacturing technique known to have been used by both Neanderthals and Homo sapiens. We dated the tools to 84,000 years ago.

We collected samples for luminescence dating from the Wadi Hasa area in West Jordan. Pictured are Mahmoud Abbas, Mohammed Alqudah and Yuansen Lai.
Zhongping Lai/Shantou University

Collectively, our fieldwork in the Jordan Rift Valley demonstrates the valley once functioned as a 360-kilometre-long freshwater corridor that helped funnel humans northward into Western Asia and southward into the Arabian Peninsula.

Further evidence for a northward expansion comes from the famous Skhul and Qafzeh cave sites in Israel. Fossils of Homo sapiens and Levallois stone tools have been found here.

Towards the south, fieldwork in northern Saudi Arabia has also demonstrated a network of rivers and lakes was once present in the region. This allowed humans to penetrate a green Nefud Desert replete with savannahs and grassland.

In the heart of the Nefud, the lakeside site of Al Wusta has produced a human fossil and Levallois stone tools dating to 85,000 years ago. These dates coincide with the 84,000-year-old Levallois stone tools found at Wadi Gharandal.




Read more:
Major new research claims smaller-brained _Homo naledi_ made rock art and buried the dead. But the evidence is lacking


Multiple migrations into South-West Asia

Our findings from the Jordan Rift Valley indicate there were multiple early human migrations from Africa, and into Asia, during favourable conditions. This opposes the theory of a single, rapid wave of human movement out of Africa 60,000 years ago.

Our results also suggest, together with the Levantine and Arabian evidence, that hunter-gatherers used inland river and wetland systems as they crossed South-West Asia. This contradicts a popular model suggesting they mainly used coastal routes as super-highways.

Although ancient DNA evidence indicates Homo sapiens interbred with Neanderthals and Denisovans multiple times as they spread into Asia, on-the-ground evidence for these encounters has generally been lacking. Our findings provide further evidence this area served as the ground for these encounters.

Yet numerous questions remain unanswered. Large swathes of territory in South-West Asia have not yet been surveyed or dated – and few fossils of our ancestors have been found to shore up arguments about how early humans really dispersed.

We’ll need to closely investigate more long-neglected areas such as the Jordan Rift Valley to accurately portray how humankind’s voyage out of Africa unfolded.




Read more:
Research reveals humans ventured out of Africa repeatedly as early as 400,000 years ago, to visit the rolling grasslands of Arabia


The Conversation

Zhongping Lai receives funding from the China Natural Science Foundation.

Mahmoud Abbas and Michael Petraglia do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. New path for early human migrations through a once-lush Arabia contradicts a single ‘out of Africa’ origin – https://theconversation.com/new-path-for-early-human-migrations-through-a-once-lush-arabia-contradicts-a-single-out-of-africa-origin-214719

Stone Age herders transported heavy rock tools to grind animal bones, plants and pigment

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Maria Guagnin, Postdoctoral Researcher, Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology

Maria Guagnin, Michael Petraglia, CC BY

About 7,000 years ago, a small group of people sat around a fire, next to a small lake in what is now the Nefud Desert of northern Saudi Arabia.

We found some of the tools they left behind – and on close inspection of the tools, we discovered these Stone Age herders were busy grinding animal bones, wild plants and pigments while their meat was cooking.

Our results are published in a new paper in PLOS ONE.

Herders and artists

Our earlier research has shown that between 10,000 and 6,000 years ago much of Arabia was far wetter and greener than it is today.

Grasslands spread, and trees and shrubs grew near water sources. Lakes formed and provided water. Herders lived around these lakes and led their cattle, sheep and goats to the best pastures.

These Stone Age herders were also skilled artists. They carved thousands of images into rock surfaces on cliffs and boulders, documenting their daily lives.

The rock art shows Stone Age people hunting gazelles, wild donkeys and ibex, and it also shows their most precious possession: their cattle.

Stone Age camp sites

Archaeological sites from this period consist of collections of small fireplaces. The herders seem to have been extremely mobile, moving around the landscape with their herds, searching for pasture and water.

On these routes they made small camps near lakes, returning to the same places again and again as the years passed and the seasons turned.




Read more:
Research reveals humans ventured out of Africa repeatedly as early as 400,000 years ago, to visit the rolling grasslands of Arabia


A few years ago, we discovered one such camp at Jebel Oraf, near the Jubbah Oasis, in the Nefud Desert of Northern Saudi Arabia.

On the shores of a small, ancient lake, we discovered 170 small fireplaces. We excavated 17 of these fireplaces and radiocarbon dating showed that most of them are between 7,200 and 6,800 years old.

Photos showing a grinding stone assembled from smaller pieces.
A grinding stone reassembled from fragments appears to have had two holes for carrying with a rope or cord.
Ceri Shipton, CC BY

What surprised us was that the small camps were full of grinding tools. Most of them had been broken into smaller pieces, and then placed on top of the fire. Some had had holes drilled into them to attach a rope to help carry them.

Although people were moving a lot, they took heavy grinding stones weighing up to three kilograms with them. It’s not clear how the grinding stones were transported – either they were carried by people or perhaps they were strapped to their cattle. Regardless, these grinding tools seem to have been very important to them.

Today the Jubbah Oasis is extremely arid and for archaeologists that means organic remains don’t survive. This made it very difficult to find out what the purpose of these grindstones was.

There are no plant remains in the archaeological sites, and animal bones only survive in small fragments. So, we turned to microscopic analysis in order to help determine the function of the grinding tools.

Microscopic traces

In experiments we find that grinding different materials, such as bone, pigment, or plants, leaves distinctive microscopic marks on the surface of the grinding tools. These marks, including striations, fractures, rounding of individual quartz grains and different types of polish, can be seen with a microscope.

We looked at the Stone Age grinding tools to identify similar traces, and from them to determine what materials were ground.

Our microscopic study showed the grindstones were used for a range of different purposes.

Some were used to process bones. We know the fires were used to cook the meat of cattle, sheep and goats, and of game such as oryx and ostrich.

Photos of a stone grinding tool and high-magnification pictures of marks on its surface.
A stone grinding tool showing microscopic traces of plant and pigment processing.
Giulio Lucarini, CC BY

We think the herders broke open animal bones to get to the marrow. Bone marrow is high in fat, and this would have helped them to get extra nutrition.

Our analysis also showed they ground plants. None of the actual plant remains have survived, so we don’t know if they ground wild plants to make simple breads, or if they pounded plant fibres to make baskets or rope.

Both would have been important for their lifestyle. They moved a lot and bread would have been easy to preserve and carry around. Baskets and rope would have been used for storage and transport and also to construct simple, transportable shelters.

The grinding tools also showed pigment was processed. Red shale, a rock found in nearby mountains, can be used like a crayon or ground into red powder and mixed into paint.

Photos showing rock art drawings of different animals, with different pigments highlighted.
Painted rock art from northern Saudi Arabia hints at the importance of pigment processing.
Maria Guagnin, CC BY

Painted rock art doesn’t often survive. Over the centuries it is washed off by rain and wind.

Only one painted rock art site from the Neolithic survives near Jebel Oraf. It shows cattle with beautiful long horns.

The grinding stones are now evidence that painted art may once have been a lot more widespread.

Valuable tools

Our analysis of the grinding marks also showed the tools were often used for different materials over time. They were clearly valuable and used as much as possible.

At the end they were broken into smaller pieces. In some cases we were able to piece back together up to 12 fragments. We’re still not sure why the discarded tools were placed on the fire – perhaps they used them to cook or to dry their meat.

Grinding stones appear to have been an important tool for mobile herders 7,000 years ago. Although they would have been hard to carry, these tools allowed Stone Age herders to produce food resources and plant materials that were vital to their highly mobile lives.




Read more:
Enigmatic ruins across Arabia hosted ancient ritual sacrifices


The Conversation

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Stone Age herders transported heavy rock tools to grind animal bones, plants and pigment – https://theconversation.com/stone-age-herders-transported-heavy-rock-tools-to-grind-animal-bones-plants-and-pigment-214838

New polling shows ‘no’ voters more likely to see Australia as already divided

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Axel Bruns, Professor, Digital Media Research Centre, Queensland University of Technology

As campaigning in the referendum on an Indigenous Voice to Parliament continues, “no” campaigners have repeatedly argued against what they call “the Voice of division”.

The results of our exclusive opinion poll suggest something to the contrary: most prospective “no” voters see the country as already divided, while “yes” voters are more likely to see it as united.

As part of an Australian Laureate Fellowship project, we commissioned a series of questions to explore whether Australian voters saw their country as divided, against the backdrop of the current referendum campaigns. These questions were added to the regular Essential opinion poll in its September 5 poll.




Read more:
Voice support up in Essential poll, but it is still behind


Division and the Voice

Polling on Voice voting intention itself shows polarisation on the issue. In the week our questions were asked, Essential showed an overall split of 42% of respondents likely to vote “yes” and 48% likely to vote “no”, with 10% undecided. (The “yes” vote has regained some ground in more recent polling.)

But when we asked respondents “How unified or divided you think Australian society is?”, their perceptions differed vastly between “yes” and “no” supporters.

Of those who see the country as unified, 58% intend to vote “yes”, while only 34% intend to vote “no”. Those who see division have almost exactly opposite intentions: 59% plan to vote “no” and 34% plan to vote “yes”.

Voting intention Very unified + quite unified Neither unified nor divided Quite divided + very divided
Intend to vote yes 58% 38% 34%
Intend to vote no 34% 46% 59%
Unsure 8% 16% 8%

Perceptions of unity and division in Australian society and referendum voting intentions

These results are remarkable, and contradict the “no” campaign rhetoric that it is the Voice to Parliament proposal itself that divides us. Instead, they show only a part of the Australian population believes the country is divided – and those voters overwhelmingly support the “no” campaign.

Who sees Australia as divided – and why?

Away from the Voice campaign, though, our poll results show societal division in Australia remains relatively mild overall. Of all the respondents we polled, 27% saw Australia as very or quite unified, and 42% as quite or very divided – which leaves 31% of voters who take a neutral point of view.

Very unified Quite unified Neither unified nor divided Quite divided Very divided Very unified + quite unified Quite divided + very divided
Percent of respondents 5%         22%         31%         33%         9%         27%         42%

Overall perceptions of unity and division in Australian society

This compares favourably with countries such as the United States, where polarisation, especially between political camps, now pervades virtually all aspects of society. Australians may have their disagreements, but only 9% of us see the country as very divided.

It also means “no” voters believe Australia to be considerably more divided, and “yes” voters believe the country to be substantially more unified, than Australians do on average.

These perceptions vary among different demographics. Younger participants see more unity in Australia. In contrast, voters over 55 see more division.

Employment status also plays a role: those in paid employment see considerably more unity than those without employment. This is especially true of retirees – who are also likely to be older, of course. Similarly, residents of capital cities see more unity than those outside them.

Age Residence Employment
18-34 35-54 55+ Capital Non-capital In paid employment Not in paid employment Retired
Very unified + Quite unified 32% 31% 20% 30% 21% 33% 18% 19%
Neither unified nor divided 33% 30% 30% 31% 31% 28% 39% 30%
Quite divided + Very divided 35% 39% 51% 39% 48% 39% 42% 50%

Demographic effects on perceptions of unity and division in Australian society

A ‘no’ campaign that appeals to perceptions of division

Our poll results show the main appeal of the “no” campaign’s rhetoric of “the Voice of division” is not to Australians who want to prevent deep political division in the country before it can take root.

Rather, it has attracted a substantial share of voters who think the country is already divided – and whose perceptions of polarisation are considerably greater than everyone else’s. In this sense, rather than offering a voice for unity, the “no” campaign is giving voice to division.

Conversely, the “yes” campaign has yet to convince a sufficiently large group of voters that the Voice offers a pathway towards greater unity – even if those who intend to vote “yes” on October 14 are already much more inclined to see the country as united.




Read more:
The ‘yes’ Voice campaign is far outspending ‘no’ in online advertising, but is the message getting through?


Methodology

This content was commissioned by Queensland University of Technology and completed by Essential Research. The survey was conducted online from August 30 to September 3 2023 and is based on 1,151 respondents sourced from online research panels.

The target population is all Australian residents aged 18 and over. Demographic quotas were applied to fieldwork and results are weighted. Full details of the methodology can be found here.

This research was conducted in accordance with the Australian Polling Council code of conduct. The council aims to advance the quality and understanding of public opinion polling in Australia.

The Conversation

Axel Bruns receives funding from the Australian Research Council through Laureate Fellowship FL210100051 Dynamics of Partisanship and Polarisation in Online Public Debate, Discovery project DP200101317 Evaluating the Challenge of ‘Fake News’ and Other Malinformation, and the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision-Making and Society (ADM+S).

Samantha Vilkins receives funding from the Australian Research Council through Laureate Fellowship FL210100051 Dynamics of Partisanship and Polarisation in Online Public Debate.

Tariq Choucair receives funding from the Australian Research Council through Laureate Fellowship FL210100051 Dynamics of Partisanship and Polarisation in Online Public Debate.

ref. New polling shows ‘no’ voters more likely to see Australia as already divided – https://theconversation.com/new-polling-shows-no-voters-more-likely-to-see-australia-as-already-divided-214713

I think my teen is depressed. How can I get them help and what are the treatment options?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Louise Birrell, Researcher at The Matilda Centre for Research in Mental Health and Substance Use, University of Sydney

Unsplash

Moody, withdrawn, down. These words are often used by parents of teens. And young people may say they feel so “depressed” about upcoming exams, or that the world is “just so depressing” these days.

But how do you know if your teen is experiencing what health professionals call “major depression”? And when should you seek help?

First, let’s understand what is meant by this term. Major depression is characterised by persistent low mood and/or irritability and loss of interest or pleasure in usual activities for at least two weeks. It also includes physical symptoms, such as sleep disturbance and fatigue, and cognitive symptoms, such as negative thoughts about themselves and the future, difficulty concentrating or making decisions.

Major depression is more than brief sadness, or an expected reaction to loss or a stressful event.

While the diagnosis is the same for adolescents and adults, teens may be more likely to present with irritability and mood changes rather than the low mood typical of adults.

Increasing over time

There is evidence depression is increasing among young people, with an international study in 2021 estimating 25% of children and adolescents experienced elevated depression symptoms – double pre-pandemic levels. While Australia was not included in this study, a recent Australian study showed psychological distress have spiked in Australian millennials (born between the early 1980s and late 1990s) and Gen-Z Australians (born late 1990s to early 2010s).

While the cause of this increase is unclear, it is likely due to multiple factors, such as financial pressures, social isolation, and climate change, and made worse by the COVID pandemic.

Given the understandable distress experienced by many young people, how can parents or carers know when to seek help?




Read more:
How parents can play a key role in the prevention and treatment of teen mental health problems


Listen up

Begin by talking to your child. Let them know you have noticed some changes and you are concerned about them. If your child opens up about their difficulties, listen carefully and validate their feelings. Being able to talk about difficulties, and knowing support is there if they need may be enough for some teens.

Read up on depression from reputable sources, so you are better equipped to understand and support a young person.

Try not to dismiss a teen’s feelings or punish irritable behaviour. It can be tempting to remind them of positives or offer solutions – but this can often backfire, leaving them feeling misunderstood. While it might be difficult or uncomfortable to talk openly with your teen about their mental health, it is often a huge relief for them.

Professional help may be needed if they are highly distressed, or if their difficulties are having a significant impact on their usual activities and relationships (this may include withdrawing from many activities, avoiding school, or avoiding friends and family most of the time).

Start with a GP

The good news is, effective treatments are available.

The first step to finding appropriate treatment will likely be supporting your teen to see a GP. Again, simply talking through their concerns with the doctor may be very helpful. Your young person might prefer to discuss this with the GP without you.

The GP may refer them to a mental health professional, such as a psychologist or psychiatrist.

Teens can also go directly to an organisation like Headspace, which provides information, support and services to young people aged 12 to 25 and their families and friends via centres across Australia.




Read more:
The first sleep health program for First Nations adolescents could change lives


What does depression treatment look like?

A recent review on recognising and managing teen depression examined clinical practice guidelines from Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, the United States and New Zealand found a comprehensive treatment approach is typically used.

Treatment can include:

  • education about depression and its treatment

  • lifestyle interventions (such as improving sleep, diet and exercise)

  • psychological therapy (often focused on understanding and changing unhelpful thinking patterns)

  • prescription of antidepressants when needed.

Whether to start a teen on antidepressant medication can be a difficult decision. It should be a collaborative decision involving the teen, their parents and health professionals.

Like all medication, antidepressants have side effects and potential risks. They are typically used in cases of severe depression, or if psychological treatments have been unsuccessful. Suicidal thoughts or behaviour are a possible side effect of antidepressants for a small proportion of adolescents and should be carefully monitored. However, untreated depression is also a risk factor for suicide, so the potential benefits and risks of antidepressant use by teens needs to be carefully considered.

Assessing risk

Suicidal thoughts and self-harm are common in depression but can be effectively treated.

Suicide risk assessment is a critical part of any treatment for depression, and should include the development of a safety plan with the teen and their parents or carers. Safety plans can be very helpful in times of distress, listing helpful coping strategies and contact details for family, friends and health professionals.

If you are concerned your teen might be at risk of suicide, take it seriously. Ask them direct questions, such as “Are you thinking about suicide?”. Get professional support as soon as possible and take the young person to the nearest emergency department or call 000 if you are worried about their immediate safety. You can also contact Kids Helpline 24 hours a day 1800 55 1800.

Importantly, look after yourself. Supporting a teen with depression can take a toll and lead to significant tension in a household.

Find someone (other than your child) you can confide in. Make sure you’re getting rest, nutrition and exercise. Seek professional support if you find yourself struggling. Taking care of yourself means you are better equipped to support your child.


If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14 or Kids Helpline on 1800 55 1800.

The Conversation

Louise Birrell receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, the Australian government and Australian Rotary Health.

Andrew Baillie is employed by the University of Sydney in a position half funded by Sydney Local Health District and he receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council and the Medical Research Future Fund.

Maree Teesson is Chair of Australia’s Mental Health Think Tank which is funded by the BHP Foundation. She is Director of The Matilda Centre, The University of Sydney. She is chair of the Million Minds Mission. She receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, the Australian Government, BHP Foundation, Paul Ramsay Foundation and other research organisations. She is co-director of OurFutures Institute a not-for-profit company established to distribute evidence resources to education organisations.

Erin Kelly does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. I think my teen is depressed. How can I get them help and what are the treatment options? – https://theconversation.com/i-think-my-teen-is-depressed-how-can-i-get-them-help-and-what-are-the-treatment-options-206702

Made in America: how Biden’s climate package is fuelling the global drive to net zero

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alan Finkel, Chair of ARC Centre of Excellence for Quantum Biotechnology, The University of Queensland

This article is part of a series by The Conversation, Getting to Zero, examining Australia’s energy transition.

Just over a year since US President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) into law, it’s becoming clear this strangely named piece of legislation could have a powerful impact in spurring the global transition to net zero emissions by 2050.

But the vast amount of investment unleashed by the IRA has raised tensions with some of the United States’ closest allies, and creates risks, as well as opportunities, for Australia’s transition to clean energy sources.

In his 2020 presidential campaign, Biden promised to commit the US to net zero by 2050, and to spend US$2 trillion to get there – the biggest investment in manufacturing since World War II. Biden is delivering on those promises.




Read more:
The road is long and time is short, but Australia’s pace towards net zero is quickening


The 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act included about $100 billion for electric vehicles and for speeding the electricity grid’s transition to clean energy sources.

The IRA changes the landscape

Passage of the IRA, in August 2022, ensured a swathe of green technologies would benefit from tax credits, loans, customer rebates and other incentives.

The original announcement estimated that uncapped subsidies over ten years would be US$369 billion, but Goldman Sachs Research now estimates that total subsidies could reach US$1.2 trillion and attract US$3 trillion investment by industry. That’s trillion, not billion.

Already, 272 new or expanded clean energy manufacturing projects in the US, including 91 in batteries, 65 in electric vehicles and 84 in wind and solar power, have been announced. These projects are estimated to create 170,000 jobs, predominantly in Republican-led states.

The IRA is all carrot, no stick. It contains no carbon taxes or emissions trading schemes. Instead, tax credits for capital expenditure and production costs encourage companies to invest in solar, wind, hydrogen, batteries, electric vehicles and other zero emissions technologies.

This approach is shifting the debate on the best way to reach net zero emissions. To free-market economists who ask why government should invest in private sector industries, the answer is that the green energy transition is not natural. Renewable energy would never have advanced without Germany subsidising solar and Denmark subsidising wind.

Subsidies and mandates are also crucial in explaining why, last year, Chinese vehicle manufacturers produced 64% of the global total of 10.5 million electric vehicle sales, and deployed about half of the global capacity additions in solar and wind power.




Read more:
Too hard basket: why climate change is defeating our political system


Industrial policy to protect the climate

The IRA is America’s response. More than climate policy, it is industrial policy, replete with made-in-America provisions. Companies are more likely to obtain tax credits if they employ unionised labour, train apprentices and set up shop in states that are transitioning out of fossil fuels.

Consumers will earn a $7,500 federal tax credit on an electric car only if that car is assembled and at least half the battery made in America. Similarly, wind and solar projects will earn tax credits only if half of their manufactured components are made in America.

These policies were made with China in mind. Both main US parties agree the US must reduce its dependence on sourcing minerals and products from China, and move towards a new form of “strategic economic nationalism”.

Yet while America’s strongest allies are also alarmed by the challenge from China, they are disturbed by aspects of the IRA. They fear that to benefit from its subsidies, their own clean energy companies might pack up shop and establish plants in the US.

The European Union, for example, has praised the IRA’s overall approach, but fiercely criticised its made-in-America provisions. French President Emmanuel Macron called the Act “super aggressive” toward European companies. European leaders say the IRA violates trade rules by discriminating against imported products, and could “trigger a harmful global subsidy race to the bottom on key technologies and inputs for the green transition.”

Yet even as it criticises the US, the EU has responded to the IRA by relaxing its rules and allowing individual states to provide direct support to clean energy companies to stop them taking their projects to the US.

Canada, worried about investment flowing south to benefit from the IRA even though its free trade agreement with the US should give its companies access to the subsidies, has also announced tax credits and programs to boost clean energy production. Japan and South Korea have announced similar programs.

Why the IRA challenges Australia

In Australia, before the IRA was legislated, the Morrison government provided a A$1.25 billion loan to Iluka Resources to fund construction of an integrated rare-earths refinery in Western Australia. The refinery will produce separated rare earth oxide products that are used in permanent magnets in electric vehicles, clean energy generation and defence.

But Australia risks being left behind in the race to build clean energy industries. The US could so heavily subsidise green hydrogen production that our own planned industry – seen as a foundation of our aspiration to be a clean energy superpower – will be uncompetitive, leading our aspiring manufacturers to set up shop in the US.




Read more:
‘Green steel’ is hailed as the next big thing in Australian industry. Here’s what the hype is all about


The IRA, however, brings Australia many potential benefits. The US wants to source the raw and refined materials it needs from countries, such as Australia, with which it has a free trade agreement. To respond to this interest, Australian industry, transport and mining must have access to low-emissions electricity.

The US will be an essential market for our rare earths such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium, used to make the powerful permanent magnets in wind turbines and electric car motors. Australia can also build new industrial processes and supply chains so that we earn more from decarbonised metallic iron, aluminium and nitrogenous fertiliser. We can ship our renewable energy in the form of hydrogen and ammonia.

In this race, Australia’s friendship with the US and volatile relationship with China could be decisive. The IRA does not spell out the concept of friend-shoring but nevertheless it seeks “to onshore and friend-shore the electric vehicle supply chain, to capture the benefits of a new supply chain and reduce entanglement with China,” according to the US Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

The IRA denies electric vehicle tax credits when any component or critical mineral in the vehicle is sourced from China or any “foreign entity of concern.”

A clean energy trade war is just one of the potential obstacles that could prevent the full benefits of the IRA being realised. Many communities in the US and Australia are resisting the installation of new transmission lines, wind farms and other clean energy infrastructure, and these objections are often on environmental grounds – the so-called Greens’ Dilemma. And a win for Donald Trump in next year’s presidential election could reverse American climate policy.

Yet on balance, the IRA can only be good for getting to net zero. It brings the US in from the climate wilderness to be a leader in emissions reduction, helping to drive new technologies and lower costs that will benefit not only America but the world.

The Conversation

Alan Finkel is chair of the Hysata Advisory Council and an investor in the company. He is a member of the Rio Tinto Innovation Advisory Council.

ref. Made in America: how Biden’s climate package is fuelling the global drive to net zero – https://theconversation.com/made-in-america-how-bidens-climate-package-is-fuelling-the-global-drive-to-net-zero-214709

It wasn’t just a tree: why it feels so bad to lose the iconic Sycamore Gap tree and others like it

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rebecca Banham, Postdoctoral fellow, University of Tasmania

Shutterstock

The famous Sycamore Gap tree was felled last week, prompting global expressions of sorrow, anger and horror. For some, the reaction was puzzling. Wasn’t it just a single tree in northern England? But for many, the tree felt profoundly important. Its loss felt like a form of grief.

Trees tell us something important about ourselves and who we are in the world. That is, they contribute to ontological security – our sense of trust that the world and our selves are stable and predictable.

Trees – especially those celebrated like England’s sycamore or Tasmania’s 350-year-old El Grande mountain ash – feel like they are stable and unchanging in a world where change is constant. Their loss can destabilise us.

What makes a tree iconic?

Individual trees can become important to us for many reasons.

When the wandering ascetic Siddhartha Gautama sat at the foot of a sacred fig around 500 BCE, he achieved the enlightenment which would, a few centuries later, lead to his fame as the Buddha. This sacred fig would become known as the Bodhi Tree. One of its descendants attracts millions of pilgrims every year.

Mahabodhi Temple sacred fig
This sacred fig in India’s Mahabodhi Temple is believed to be the descendant of the fig the Buddha sat beneath.
Globe Trotting/Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND

Sometimes a tree becomes iconic because of its association with pop culture. U2’s hit 1987 album The Joshua Tree has inspired fans to seek out the tree on the cover in the United States’ arid southwest – a potentially dangerous trip.

Other trees become famous because they’re exceptional in some way. The location of the world’s tallest tree – a 115-metre high redwood known as Hyperion – is kept secret for its protection.

Niger’s Tree of Ténéré was known as the world’s most isolated, eking out an existence in the Sahara before the lonely acacia was accidentally knocked down by a truck driver in 1973. Its site is marked by a sculpture.

The Tree of Tenere in 1961, before it was knocked over.
Michel Mazeau/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY

In 2003, the mountain ash known as El Grande – then the world’s largest flowering plant – was accidentally killed in a burn conducted by Forestry Tasmania. The death of the enormous tree – 87 metres tall, with a 19 metre girth – drew “national and international” media attention.

This year, vandals damaged a birthing tree sacred to the local Djab Wurrung people amidst conflicts about proposed road works in western Victoria.

And in 2006, someone poisoned Queensland’s Tree of Knowledge – a 200-year-old ghost gum famous for its connection to the birth of trade unionism in Australia. Under its limbs, shearers organised and marched for better conditions. The dead tree has been preserved in a memorial.

What is it to lose a tree?

Sociologist Anthony Giddens defines ontological security as a “sense of continuity and order in events”.

To sustain it, we seek out feelings of safety, trust, and reassurance by engaging with comfortable and familiar objects, beings and people around us – especially those important to our self-identity.

When there is an abrupt change, it challenges us. If your favourite tree in your street or garden dies, you mourn it – and what it gave you. But we mourn at a distance too – the Sycamore Gap tree was world-famous, even if you never saw it in real life.

In my research, I have explored how Tasmanian forests – including iconic landscapes and individual trees – can give us that sense of security we all seek in ourselves.

As one interviewee, Leon, told me:

These places should be left alone, because in 10,000 years they could still be there. Obviously I won’t be, we won’t be, but perhaps [the forest will be].

Temporality matters here. That is, we know what to expect by looking to the past and imagining what the future could be. Trees – especially ancient ones – act as a living link between the past, present, and future.

As my interviewee Catherine said:

You lie under an old myrtle and you just go, ‘wow – so what have you seen in your lifetime?’ Shitloads more than me.

That’s why the loss of the Sycamore Gap tree has upset seemingly the entire United Kingdom. The tree was famous for its appearance: a solitary tree in a photogenic dip in the landscape.

Its loss means a different future for those who knew it. It’s as if you were reading a book you know – but someone changed the ending.




Read more:
Sycamore Gap: what the long life of a single tree can tell us about centuries of change


Loss of connection

We respond very differently when humans do the damage compared to natural processes. In one study, UK homeowners found it harder to accept their house being burgled than for it to be flooded, seeing flooding as more natural and thus less of a blow to their sense of security.

This is partly why the sycamore’s death hurt. It didn’t fall in a storm. It was cut down deliberately – something that wasn’t supposed to happen.

The sycamore was just a tree. But it was also not just a tree – it was far more, for many of us. It’s more than okay to talk about what this does to us – about how the loss of this thread of connection makes us grieve.

Yes, we have lost the Sycamore Gap tree, just as we lost El Grande and many others. It is useful to talk about this – and to remember the many other beautiful and important trees that live on.




Read more:
Photos from the field: capturing the grandeur and heartbreak of Tasmania’s giant trees


The Conversation

Rebecca Banham received funding from an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship, which funded the research associated with this article.

ref. It wasn’t just a tree: why it feels so bad to lose the iconic Sycamore Gap tree and others like it – https://theconversation.com/it-wasnt-just-a-tree-why-it-feels-so-bad-to-lose-the-iconic-sycamore-gap-tree-and-others-like-it-214841

Please, don’t bring back the Commonwealth Employment Service

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David O’Halloran, Adjunct Lecturer in Work and Labour Market Theory, Monash University

National Archives of Australia

There’s talk of bringing back Australia’s Commonwealth Employment Service.

The Community and Public Sector Union has launched a campaign, the parliament has begun an inquiry into the appropriateness of the present system of outsourcing employment services, and the government’s employment white paper has been deeply critical of the system we have at the moment.

The Commonwealth Employment Service was itself the result of Australia’s first employment white paper in 1945, which wanted a service designed, in its words:

  • to bring to the notice of men and women seeking employment the full range of opportunities, and in particular to find employment offering scope for their abilities

  • to enable employers to draw upon suitable labour throughout the Commonwealth

  • to provide assistance where necessary to enable employees to move to where employment is available.

It staffed offices throughout the country in which workers wanting to be matched with jobs would thumb through index cards and seek advice from expert job matchers.


National Archives of Australia

The service closed in 1998 when the Howard government decided to outsource it to private job providers who would be paid for performance.

It hasn’t worked as planned.

The September 2023 white paper says it is seen as “highly transactional and poorly tailored to the diverse and complex needs of people who use it”.

Services were thought to:

do little to support job seekers and build their capabilities, with one stakeholder arguing that national employment services had failed to keep those people at the highest risk of disadvantage connected with labour markets, let alone in paid employment.

A handful of corporations now dominate the system, raking in large profits while arguably failing in their obligations.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has told The Conversation’s Michelle Grattan he wants to reform the system and he will be using the insights of the parliamentary committee.

But my PhD research into Australia’s employment services suggests putting things back to how they were would be a bad idea, for two reasons.

First, it would require commitment from the Commonwealth and resources that have been lacking for decades. The government used to be able to do more.

Bringing back the Commonwealth Employment Service would require placing a new Commonwealth agency office in every major town and centre across the country – akin to expecting someone who was emaciated to train for the Olympics.

These days the government is too incapacitated to manage even basic functions without support from expensive consultants, let alone to manage an expansion.

Its incapacity is evident every time there’s a national crisis. The only agency it can reliably call on is the defence force because there’s little else left.




Read more:
Politics with Michelle Grattan: Treasurer Jim Chalmers on jobs and work


Back at the time of the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires, social workers and counsellors from Centrelink and the Commonwealth Rehabilitation Service were rapidly redeployed and played crucial roles.

The Commonwealth Rehabilitation Service was abolished in the Coalition’s first 2014 budget and the remaining social workers in Centrelink are overwhelmed.

The Commonwealth can now barely manage contracts

In the early stages of outsourcing, the Department of Employment still had staff with Commonwealth Employment Service experience and were able to manage the outsourcing contracts well – they understood how complicated labour markets were at the local level.

But these days it’s unlikely there’s anyone is left within the department with direct experience with the service, or even any kind of service.

Each of the previous reviews of employment services over the last 20 years (at least five by my count) has entertained the fantasy that a special blend of incentives can be created to get outsourced providers to do the right thing.

Not only has the Commonwealth’s capacity to deliver services dwindled, its ability also to effectively purchase services has diminished them as well.

The Commonwealth links programs to payments

The other reason not to reestablish a Commonwealth Employment Service is that these days the government links the provision of services to the payment of benefits, through what it calls “mutual obligations”.

Providers complain they’ve got to divert staff away from liaising with potential employers to managing compliance.

Oblivious to the irony, when I appeared before the parliamentary inquiry, federal politicians told me about the effectiveness of some local and state government initiatives, asking why they were successful.

They are successful because they focus on matching employers and employees rather than linking obligations to benefits.

State, territory and local governments around the country have long realised the Commonwealth is unable to properly focus on getting people jobs and have taken matters into their own hands, usually at a fraction of the cost.

States do things better

States know about conditions on the ground.
Shutterstock

Unemployed workers are voting with their feet and turning to these locally run services, sometimes risking suspension of their Centrelink payments because they have failed to turn up to meetings with their official employment provider.

Imagine the possibilities if the Commonwealth were to hand over to the states and local government the northwards of $3 billion it blows each year on its often useless and sometimes harmful programs.

States and territories could then develop really superior services, like Switzerland, where employment services are developed and delivered at the level of individual cantons (states). It means what works in Geneva doesn’t have to be imposed on Zurich, producing better outcomes.

The Commonwealth will never be good at providing services while it is obsessed with controlling the welfare budget, and it is responsible for the welfare budget. The states don’t have that problem and do have an immediate on-the-ground interest in getting their citizens into jobs.

The Conversation

David O’Halloran is not a member but provides volunteer support to the Australian Unemployed Workers Union

ref. Please, don’t bring back the Commonwealth Employment Service – https://theconversation.com/please-dont-bring-back-the-commonwealth-employment-service-214644

Shayda: this unflinching portrayal of domestic violence marks a profound shift in Australian cinema

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cherine Fahd, Associate Professor Visual Communication, University of Technology Sydney

Jane Zhang/Madman Entertainment

Australian cinema has often struggled to authentically portray the cultural lives of Middle Eastern Australians. Stereotypical stories frequently sidestep the intricacies of social bonds, as well as the cultural differences in domestic life and familial attachment.

Noora Niasari’s Shayda refreshingly challenges this trend.

Shayda is a powerful debut feature for the Iranian-Australian filmmaker, in a worldly film which marks a profound shift in Australian storytelling and Australian cinema.

The film avoids common Australian film tropes, steering clear of clichéd Aussie humour, traditional Australian archetypes like pristine beaches, the gothic outback and heroic male personas. Additionally, it refrains from marginalising the Middle Eastern characters.

It presents an unflinching portrayal of domestic violence and the grim reality of an Iranian woman trapped in an oppressive marriage.

Zar Amir Ebrahimi delivers a remarkable performance, embodying Shayda’s vulnerability, strength and inner turmoil, immersing the audience in her world of yearning and pain.

Hushed conversations and mounting tension

Shayda is living in Australia, in an unspecified city, with her husband, Hossein (Osamah Sami), and their six-year-old daughter, Mona (Selina Zahednia). She had previously tried to divorce her husband in Iran; now she seeks refuge in a women’s shelter in Australia.

Beautifully directed domestic scenes between mother and daughter show Shayda striving to provide Mona with some stability. But when a judge grants visitation rights to Hossein he re-enters their lives, reigniting Shayda’s fears he may attempt to take Mona back to Iran.

From the moment the film begins, a looming threat of child abduction keeps us on edge. This tension only intensifies with each seemingly ordinary scene, such as Mona having McDonald’s with her father in a suburban food court. His sly attempts to gather information about his wife betray his deep love for his child.

Mother and daughter.
Shayda strives to provide Mona with some stability.
Jane Zhang/Madman Entertainment

The women’s shelter is run by the formidable and compassionate Joyce, played masterfully by Leah Purcell. A particularly poignant scene unfolds as Joyce helps Shayda complete her divorce forms in English with the aid of an interpreter. Through this bilingual exchange, we gain insight into the extent of her husband’s violence. Such scenes are rich with information, unravelling gradually through hushed conversations and mounting tension.

Shame and loss

We slowly learn about Shayda and Hossein’s journey from Tehran to Australia for education. However, Hossein’s connections prevent Shayda from pursuing her own studies, with her study visa mysteriously halted.

Now, Hossein wants his family back together. He promises Shayda more freedom. But his desire for reconciliation is driven more by jealousy and shame than love.

Shame is the underlying theme of the film. Both Shayda and Hossein are ensnared by cultural and religious expectations. While Hossein blindly adheres to the social contract of a violent patriarchy, Shayda courageously defies societal norms.

A man hugs his daughter.
Hossein’s desire for reconciliation is driven more by jealousy and shame than love.
Jane Zhang/Madman Entertainment

During a phone call with her mother in Tehran, Shayda learns of the shame her family endures due to her defiant actions.

The film also delves into themes of loss, both of one’s homeland and familial ties left behind.

One of the film’s most compelling aspects is its timeliness. Shayda serves as a testament to the enduring strength of Iranian women fighting for their basic rights, resonating powerfully against the backdrop of the ongoing women’s revolution in Iran.




Read more:
Not ‘powerless victims’: how young Iranian women have long led a quiet revolution


Hope and rejuvenation

The film abounds with details that enrich the narrative. Moments like mother and daughter playfully performing television aerobics eloquently convey Shayda’s deep connection with her daughter.

As Nowruz, the Persian New Year, approaches, Shayda tries to celebrate with her daughter and her friends while confronting the prospect of new romance and unrestricted freedoms. The palpable chemistry between Shayda and her Iranian-Canadian love interest, Farhad (Mojean Aria), unfolds against the backdrop of cultural disparities and the violence of Hossein, which threatens to sever their connection.

Friends dance in a lounge room.
The film beautifully captures the essence of Nowruz as a symbol of hope and rejuvenation.
Jane Zhang/Madman Entertainment

A haircut scene holds profound significance as Shayda chops off her hair in a desperate bid for freedom, symbolising a new beginning and the arrival of Nowruz. Shayda’s gift to Mona of a goldfish becomes a symbol of hope. The sprouting of seeds on the window sill and the preparation of Persian food and sweets reflect the migrants’ connection to their homelands. These scenes beautifully capture the essence of Nowruz.

The film subtly unveils the harsh reality of domestic violence amid migration and cultural difference through minimal dialogue and nuanced storytelling. Drawing from the filmmaker’s personal experiences, Niasari’s sensitive direction reveals layers of Shayda’s character and story, making her both relatable and magnetic.

Sherwin Akbarzadeh’s cinematography is breathtaking, juxtaposing the suburban Australian landscape with the sombre tones of a dimly lit domestic interior. Subtle hints of colour and closeup shots of household objects immerse us in the daily life within the women’s shelter.

The supporting cast delivers robust performances, infusing the narrative with authenticity and emotion.

For those tempted to leave the cinema before the credits roll, don’t. The inclusion of scenes from the director’s home videos, featuring a young girl who appears to be the director herself dancing in the living room of the women’s shelter while her mother talks candidly to the camera, reinforces the film’s intensity with the affecting resonances of a documentary.

Niasari’s dedication to her mother and all the courageous women of Iran permeates every frame of this film.

Shayda is in cinemas from today.




Read more:
How photography can reveal, overlook and manipulate truth: the fearless work of Australian Iranian artist Hoda Afshar


The Conversation

Cherine Fahd does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Shayda: this unflinching portrayal of domestic violence marks a profound shift in Australian cinema – https://theconversation.com/shayda-this-unflinching-portrayal-of-domestic-violence-marks-a-profound-shift-in-australian-cinema-212535

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