Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julia Coffey, Senior Lecturer in Sociology, University of Newcastle

Gender-based violence, particularly sexual harassment, is a serious and persistent problem across the workforce.

But our new research paints a concerning picture of the extent of the problem in the hospitality industry.

We interviewed 124 hospitality workers in Melbourne and Newcastle from a range of different bars, restaurants and cafes.

We found young women, queer and gender diverse workers are on the front line in responding to and managing the threat of gender-based violence in their venues.

Women bar workers were also routinely seen as “better suited” to manage the threat of violence.

Read more:
Welcome to your first job: expect to be underpaid, bullied, harassed or exploited in some way

‘The line is clear’

Gendered dynamics are particularly stark in service labour.

Enduring sexual harassment was described as a routine “part of the job” for young people, particularly in women in bar work.

Workers insisted the line between friendliness and harassment from patrons in bar work is “very clear”. Karen*, a bar worker from Melbourne, said

The line is very clear. I think it’s as soon as you feel unsafe in a situation, it’s like ‘don’t say to me, anything explicit about what you want to do with me’. That’s obviously, deeply inappropriate. I’m serving you a drink.

Read more:
72% of Australians have been sexually harassed. The system we have to fix this problem is set up to fail

Ben, a barista in Newcastle, wanted management to clearly designate “the line” for what is “acceptable” or “unacceptable” behaviour, rather than placing responsibility on the individual to “speak out”.

Why is it not standardised across venues? I feel like that line [calling out bad behaviour] is dictated by your superiors.

Workers like Ben, whose managers didn’t have processes for protecting staff, meant risks had to be assessed and navigated by workers on their own. Learning how to manage harassing or abusive customers was considered a normal and essential part of the job, particularly impacting women, gender diverse and queer workers.

Women routinely expected to manage violence

In our study, women bar workers were regularly called upon to defuse violent or aggressive patrons. Women were expected to be “calmer” and “kinder”, creating significant risk of harm for them.

Felicity, a Melbourne bar worker, said:

If a guy is in for a bit of argie [looking to fight], the absolute worst thing you can do is send a male bar member to deal with it […] Women can deescalate that situation far better, nine times out of ten.

A pub worker from Newcastle, Stan, said:

Some guys just want to kick off and will start a fight over anything […] It doesn’t matter what you do in those situations, you’re pretty much fucked. Unless you’re a female [staff member], to be honest.

This expectation to manage violence is an unrecognised extra form of gendered labour which women are primarily expected to undertake.

Women, queer and gender diverse workers also described instances of being spat at, followed home, and threats of physical and sexual violence.

Given the scale and breadth of gendered violence against women, the normalised position that women are “better suited” to manage violence is risky and exploitative.

Five recommendations to change the industry

We suggest five recommendations targeting employers, policy and resourcing to create change in the industry.

1. new policies for addressing sexual harassment in front-of-house service labour are needed. This includes processes for registering and resolving complaints, investigations and outcomes, which should be developed by government and industry in consultation with workers

2. the hospitality industry should develop tailored approaches, in line with the new positive duty under the Sex Discrimination Act, to support businesses and venues to prevent and respond to sexual harassment. This should address key areas such as effective education and training. It should also focus on recording all instances of gender-based violence so the true scale of the problem can be better understood and monitored over time

3. hospitality management strategies should implement a “zero tolerance” approach to account for, and reduce the risk of, sexual and gender-based harassment. Behavioural expectations between workers, and workers and employers, should be discussed and agreed upon

4. hospitality venues must continue to improve gender equity across all staffing positions to support developing skills and the value of diverse experience in hospitality

5. increased state and federal funding is needed for local organisations to deliver training, resources and campaigning tailored for hospitality workers based on their experiences. This will lead to better outcomes in the industry.

These changes can create safer and more respectful workplaces for all.

*All names attributed to quotes from participants in this study are pseudonyms.

Julia Coffey receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

David Farrugia receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Lena Molnar works for Women with Disabilities Victoria.

Steven Threadgold received funding from the Australian Research Council for this project.

Megan Sharp does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Gender-based violence is a big concern in hospitality – and women bear the brunt of managing it – https://theconversation.com/gender-based-violence-is-a-big-concern-in-hospitality-and-women-bear-the-brunt-of-managing-it-212107

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hayley O’Neill, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Health Sciences and Medicine, Bond University

Your nose is running, your head hurts and you feel like you’re coming down with a cold. You’re settling in on the couch for a sick day. Then you reach for the snacks.

When you’re sick, your appetite often decreases. So why, at other times, do you crave sugary treats and carbohydrate-loaded comfort foods?

A food craving goes beyond a mere desire to eat, it encompasses a complex mix of emotional, behavioural, cognitive and physiological processes. Whether it’s the need for a quick energy source or a temporary relief from discomfort, our bodies and minds work in tandem to drive our food preferences.

Here we’ll explore the science behind why our bodies crave sugar and carbs – especially when we’re sick.

Read more:
3 reasons you feel hungrier and crave comfort foods when the weather turns cold

Fuelling the immune system

When sickness strikes, our immune system springs into action, requiring additional energy to combat invaders.

This heightened activity often leads to an increase in our metabolic rate, energy demands and nutritional requirements.

Sugary treats and carbs are quick sources of energy, satisfying this increased demand.

But while a high sugar diet during times of illness may help meet increased metabolic demands, it could also exacerbate the immune and inflammatory response, potentially impeding recovery.

In the longer term, high-sugar diets promote chronic inflammation, alter gut microbiota composition, and are associated with chronic disease. For a well-functioning immune system, aim for a balanced intake of fruits, vegetables, fibre, protein, and low-glycaemic carbohydrates.

The stress response

Being sick is stressful for the body. Acute mild or intense stress, like we’d see if we’re sick, boosts the “flight or fight” hormones adrenaline and cortisol. This mobilises stored energy to meet increased demands, but it can also curb appetite.

Prolonged stress can disrupt energy balance, and cause nutritional deficiencies and alterations in gut and brain functions. This can reduce a person’s threshold for craving sugar and salt, increasing their preferences towards energy-dense foods.

The stress hormone cortisol can also increase your preference for high-calorie, comfort foods, which can temporarily alleviate stress.

Read more:
What happens in our body when we encounter and fight off a virus like the flu, SARS-CoV-2 or RSV?

The brain’s reward system

Comfort foods trigger your brain’s reward system, releasing feel-good neurotransmitters like dopamine and serotonin.

But “sugar rushes” are often short-lived and can lead to decreased alertness and heightened fatigue within an hour of consumption.

The link between carbohydrates (which the body converts to sugar) and serotonin can be traced back to 1971 when researchers found elevated tryptophan levels (serotonin’s precursor) in rats’ plasma and brains after a carbohydrate-rich diet.

Subsequent studies in humans established connections between carbohydrates and mood, especially in relation to obesity, depression and seasonal affective disorder. Therapies enhancing serotonin have since been shown to reduce carbohydrate intake.

Remarkably, around 90% of serotonin production occurs in the gut. The vast microbial population in our gut exerts a potent influence on immunity, metabolism and appetite.

Recent mouse studies have even identified specific microbes linked to sugar binges after antibiotic treatment.

Some people eat less when they’re sick

Not everyone craves sugar and carbs when they are sick. Some people eat less for a few reasons:

• they have less of an appetite. While ghrelin (the “hunger” hormone) levels might initially rise, prolonged illness can suppress appetite due to nausea, fatigue and discomfort. Critically ill patients have reduced food intake and are at risk of malnutrition

• metabolic adaptation. The body might slow specific metabolic processes to conserve energy, reducing overall calorie requirements

• altered taste perception. Taste is an important component that affects both appetite and energy intake. Alterations in taste and smell is a common symptom when we are sick and was common with COVID

• consuming fluids like water, tea or broths might be more appealing and manageable than solid foods. These fluids provide hydration but contribute minimally to calorie intake.

Read more:
What to eat when you have COVID – and why reaching for the chicken soup is not a bad idea

Hayley O’Neill is a wellness coach for Hayley M O’Neill Enterprises.

– ref. Why do I crave sugar and carbs when I’m sick? – https://theconversation.com/why-do-i-crave-sugar-and-carbs-when-im-sick-210565

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Patrick Taylor, Chief Environmental Scientist, EPA Victoria; Honorary Professor, School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie University

Our cities are complex places of work, industry and residential activities. This often makes it hard to pin down the spread of different contaminants throughout them.

This can be a concern, especially given mounting evidence there is no “safe” limit of exposure for many of the chemicals we use in our daily lives. The connections between contamination, food, water and human health add to these concerns.

Measuring contamination in soil or dust is a good start. But this can only tell us the level of a contaminant at the place it was sampled. Our two new studies have used backyard bees to better monitor contamination in urban environments.

Read more:
Bees can do so much more than you think – from dancing to being little art critics

The buzz behind biomonitoring

When it comes to understanding contamination, honey bees can do the hard work for us. While foraging for nectar, pollen and water, bees are constantly picking up contaminants from their environment. Because we know their lifespan and approximate foraging range, chemical analysis can provide a snapshot of the levels of contaminants in their foraging area at that time.

With the help of backyard beekeepers, our two studies traced toxic metals and antimicrobial resistance genes across two urban centres: Sydney, Australia, and Nouméa, New Caledonia.

European honey bees have long been used as sentinel species to monitor for pests and diseases, including Varroa mites and chemicals at airports. Bees can also be used as biomonitors to understand contaminants across our urban environments.

As the popularity of urban beekeeping has grown, there has been more research on honey bee biomonitoring of a range of contaminants, including metals, pesticides and so-called “forever chemicals”, known as PFAS, in honey.

Read more:
Controversial ‘forever chemicals’ could be phased out in Australia under new restrictions. Here’s what you need to know

How bees help us map pollution

Honey bees can reveal patterns of contamination that might otherwise go unnoticed.

In Nouméa, we used honey bees to map impacts from the local nickel smelter. We found levels of metals associated with the smelter – nickel, chromium and cobalt – were elevated next to the smelter and decreased farther away.

This might not sound surprising given the smelter is a major source of pollution. However, comparing the data from bees to soil and dust samples revealed bees were the most sensitive and effective marker of smelter contamination.

By mapping trace metals in honey bees in Sydney we could look at the specific factors contributing to metal pollution within their foraging range. For the neurotoxic metal lead, we found residential and industrial activity were key influences, especially in heavily populated inner-city areas.

In contrast, less populated locations and larger areas of parks or farms had higher levels of manganese. This likely came from natural soil sources and pesticide use.

We also examined how bees can help us understand emerging concerns such as the spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genes. It’s a key concern in urban areas, driven by the misuse and overuse of antibiotics.

We found these AMR genes were common across Sydney – 83% of bees examined had ingested one or more of the genes we looked for. The source was not strongly linked to industrial activity, but rather the area of water bodies available for the bees to drink from. This may be because these genes can enter the environment through human wastewater and runoff and then be absorbed by foraging bees.

Read more:
Gutter to gut: How antimicrobial-resistant microbes journey from environment to humans

How do contaminants affect bees?

We also wanted to know if bees that contained contaminants were actually ingesting them. Our analyses showed contaminants build up within the bee over time and were not present on their exterior. We compared metal concentrations in matched samples of washed and unwashed bees and they were no different, indicating contaminants were inside the bee. Further, metal concentrations were higher in older, dead bees at the end of their lives than in the younger bees.

Using high-resolution imaging, we found only organic non-metal particles on the outside of bees. This may be because bees have very good self-cleaning habits. These behaviours also keep hives free from parasites and fungi brought in by foraging bees.

Research has shown exposure to contaminants including metals and neonicotinoid insecticides can impair honey bee development, foraging ability and survival.

Read more:
How clean is your city? Just ask the bees

And what’s in their honey?

Both honey producers and consumers want to know if their honey is safe to eat. While we previously identified some commercial honeys are adulterated with sugar syrups, this new work focused on potentially toxic trace metals in the honey.

The good news is we found trace metals in honey at very low levels that do not pose a concern. In Nouméa, the main smelter element, nickel, was more than 30 times lower in honey than in the bees.

We found similar outcomes in the mining town of Broken Hill, Australia where lead levels in honey were ten times lower than in the bees themselves.

Read more:
‘Honeygate’ deepens as new tests reveal 27% of brands are adulterated

Bees aren’t the only biomonitors

The lessons from this work have led the Environment Protection Authority (EPA) Victoria, with which we are all affiliated, to explore the use of biomonitors (honey bees, house sparrows and birds of prey) in its ongoing environmental contaminant research. As a science-based regulator, the EPA uses these types of studies to better understand the presence, uptake and dispersal of contaminants and protect environmental and human health.

Earth is facing a multitude of interlacing environmental challenges including biodiversity loss, climate change, population growth and pervasive chemical pollution. More comprehensive monitoring, including surveillance using bees, will allow us to respond more quickly and effectively to environmental health challenges.

Mark Patrick Taylor received funding via an Australian Government Citizen Science Grant (2017-2020), CSG55984 ‘Citizen insights to the composition and risks of household dust’ (the DustSafe project). The VegeSafe and DustSafe programs are supported by publication donations to Macquarie University. He is a full-time employee of EPA Victoria, appointed to the statutory role of Chief Environmental Scientist.

Kara Fry is a Senior Health Risk Adviser at EPA Victoria. This research was completed for her Master of Research and supported by a Macquarie University Research Excellence stipend.

Max M Gillings is involved in research affiliated with and funded by EPA Victoria.

– ref. How bees can monitor pollution for us – everything from toxic metals to antimicrobial resistance – https://theconversation.com/how-bees-can-monitor-pollution-for-us-everything-from-toxic-metals-to-antimicrobial-resistance-211739

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura de Zwaan, Lecturer, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Griffith University

This article is part of The Conversation’s series examining Australia’s cost of living crisis. Read the other articles in the series here.

It’s no secret that the cost of living has increased substantially over the last year, with rises of between 7.1 and 9.6 per cent for all households. So what can households do to manage these increases?

It might sound simple, but starting with a budget is the best approach. Even if you already have a budget, price increases mean it will need to be updated. For those new to budgeting, it is just a list of your income and expenses.

Make sure you match the frequency of these so you are working out your budget over a week, or a fortnight, or a month. There are plenty of budgeting apps and websites that can help, such as the Moneysmart budget planner.

Once your budget is up to date, you can see your financial position. Do you have a surplus of cash – congratulations! You can save that money to help you in an emergency.

But what about if you have less income than expenses? You need to work through a process of figuring out where you can cut back.

Some expenses are easy to cut back on:

• If you have multiple streaming services, drop back to one at a time. Check for any other subscriptions you might be paying for – if you are not using them frequently, now is the time to cancel. You can always resubscribe when money isn’t tight.

• If you are spending a lot of money on take out or paying for lunch, find cheaper alternatives such as eating at home and packing a lunch using cheaper ingredients. Switch to tap water for normal drinks, and take a travel cup of coffee with you.

• Check and see if public transport is cheaper for you. If you are using a lot of fuel and paying for parking, public transport could be a better option.

• Groceries can be a huge cost for families. It is always worth shopping around to not pay full price. Understand unit pricing and buy the products you use when they are on special. It might be necessary to switch to cheaper products.

• Check if you are paying too much for your utilities like internet, electricity and gas. There are comparison websites you can use, including the Energy Made Easy website. You can also make simple changes such as turning off lights and using a saucepan lid when boiling water that will reduce your usage.

• Check other products you might be paying for, such as car, home and health insurance to see if you can save money by switching. Be careful with any life or disability policies. It is best to speak to a financial adviser before changing those as there can be implications for cover.

Other expenses, like housing, can be a lot harder to manage.

Rising interest rates have pushed up mortgage repayments for homeowners. Mortgage interest charges have risen by 78.9% over the year to March 2023. For many homeowners, their repayments are unaffordable compared to when they first took out their mortgage.

If you are struggling to afford your mortgage, the first step is to talk to your lender as soon as possible. Moneysmart has useful information on what to do when you can’t meet your mortgage payments.

You may also be able to access some of your superannuation so you don’t lose your home, however bear in mind that this is a temporary solution and uses your retirement savings.

Increased demand for rentals has seen average rents across Australia increase by 27.4% since the COVID pandemic. Supply of rental properties is low, which means many people may not be able to find a suitable alternative if their rent increases and becomes unaffordable.

It might be necessary to take on a housemate, or move to a cheaper location (make sure to consider additional costs such as transport). If your circumstances have changed suddenly and you cannot pay your rent, contact your landlord or property manager.

If you are paying a lot in credit card or other personal debt repayments such as numerous Afterpay-style accounts, it could be a good idea to speak to a bank about consolidating.

This can help move some expensive debt, such as that from credit cards, into lower interest debt and simplify your budgeting as there is only one payment. If debt is making your budget unmanageable, then you can call the National Debt Helpline or for First Nations Australians there is Mob Strong Debt Help.

A final option could be to increase your income by taking on more work. This can be a good solution, but if you already work full time it might be unsustainable. Two common side hustles to boost income are gig work, such as Uber driving, and multi-level marketing, which is selling goods like Doterra and Herbalife to family and friends.

However, both are low paid and in most cases you would be better off earning minimum wage as a casual employee.

Laura de Zwaan has received funding from Ecstra Foundation and the Financial Basics Foundation. She is a member of the Financial Planning Academic Forum and has previously been a member of the Wealth Academy Advisory Board.

– ref. Shop around, take lunch, catch the bus. It is possible to ease the squeeze on your budget – https://theconversation.com/shop-around-take-lunch-catch-the-bus-it-is-possible-to-ease-the-squeeze-on-your-budget-210895

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Grace Russell, Lecturer from the School of Media, Film and Journalism, Monash University

I’ve been talking to my film students lately about the way that viewing contexts affect how we receive a film – whether this means different hardware, locations, moods and modes of engaging.

While many of these conversations have been around the value that can be found in any kind of viewing, the perceived ideal still seems to be the darkened theatre, with a fellow audience. The Melbourne International Film Festival gives such a fantastic opportunity for coming together like this for two weeks of really concentrated cinema experiences, a welcome retreat from winter.

While the dozen or so films I managed to see can’t be fully representative, they offer a sample of some of the different kinds of cinema experience MIFF 2023 had on offer. Here’s a rough top five:

Walk Up (Hong Sang-Soo, South Korea, 2022)

Hong Sang-Soo has directed 28 features since 1996, and they are nearly always a festival highlight for me in that their effects last a lot longer than my immediate reception. I’m always thinking about these films days, weeks, months later.

Part of the difficulty in writing about Hong’s work is that conversations among fans can feel exclusionary, heading immediately into auteurist gushing about form and repeated character types. This repetition is one of the real pleasures of encountering his work.

If you’ve never seen a Hong film, you can expect slow, realist plots about relationships (romantic, familial). Austere cinematography (locked-off mid shots are a favourite). Protagonists who are barely veiled Mary-Sues, usually filmmakers themselves, sometimes novelists or film professors. Expect excessive drinking, the tables packed with empty soju bottles.

The “puzzle film” is usually used to refer to a director like Christopher Nolan, but Hong could not be further from that (a common, facile comparison is made between him and Woody Allen, a more robust one for me is Eric Rohmer).

Nevertheless, his movies are a delightful, abstruse puzzle box, where getting to know a character requires careful observation of not only what they say but how they behave.

In Walk Up, the filmmaker protagonist Byung-Soo (Hong regular Kwon Hae-Hyo), adult daughter in tow, visits an old girlfriend who owns a four-storey apartment building. Over a four-part structure, we make occasional jumps forward in time, from the evening with the friend and daughter, to a growing relationship with the proprietor of the second-floor restaurant, to our hero’s occupancy of the top floor with a new girlfriend possibly years later. The final part returns us to the beginning, with the filmmaker again encountering his daughter on the evening where the first chapter ended.

It’s so satisfying to slowly see commonalities unfold across the four parts. How, late in each chapter, a character leaves the building and the others spend the remainder of that chapter awaiting their return. How entitled, pompous Byung-Soo is looked after by the women around him, all of whom, in very different ways, are concerned about his health.

I note how poorly Barbie performed in South Korea, and how despite their strength and power, Hong’s women are often still beholden to his comically self-assured, quixotically dreamy – or just deluded? – men.

Showing Up (Kelly Reichardt, US, 2022)

It’s fascinating how the most interesting hot teen actresses of my adolescence now play frumps in films by female auteurs. Beautiful Michelle Williams’ dowdiness here rivals even Kirsten Dunst’s in The Beguiled or The Power of the Dog. You would never believe this croc-clad, slouching woman was playing Marilyn Monroe 12 years ago.

A ceramicist slogging away at administrative work for an art centre, Lizzy’s (Williams) life is the series of dismissals and microaggressions that plague anyone made invisible by a shy manner and complete dearth of pizzazz in appearance or personality. As she prepares for her own exhibition, Lizzy is overshadowed by the success of her charismatic but flaky colleague and landlord Jo (a brilliant turn by Hong Chau). Jo’s popularity is even more galling because she is weeks behind on fixing Lizzy’s water heater and keeps saddling her with caring for an injured pigeon.

This film manages to make a joke out of the po-faced ludicrousness of the art world, while never (for me at least) making fun of art or artists themselves. It’s a fine line to walk, but one that I found tethered by Lizzy’s ability to subtly, gracefully, if unwillingly shoulder the worry, responsibility and labour that is necessary for making creativity bear fruit.

This is the funniest of Williams and Reichardt’s collaborations, but still grounded in their usual quietness and honesty.

Femme (Sam H Freeman and Ng Choon Ping, UK, 2023)

The moment Femme ended, the stranger to my right turned to me and said, “Wow, that was intense hey? My friend edited that!”, and all I could reply was “Kudos to your friend!”

This film is complete white-knuckle suspense through its brief runtime, though the homophobic violence that prompts its revenge narrative is really hard to stomach.

I was reminded of how many rape-revenge films don’t seem to understand that revenge is only satisfying if the survivor gets away with it. In Femme, the satisfaction at the end is knowing that beautiful, tender hero Jules (Nathan Stewart-Jarrett), has the love of his community, and all the things that made a closeted, abusive bigot want to hurt him are also his strength and grace.

And that sometimes we don’t want to see bullies learn the error of their ways – we just want to see them left out in the cold.

Gush (Fox Maxy, US, 2023)

This was the only festival screening I went to that was sparsely attended, and I think this is partly because the program seemed confused on how to describe it – it’s an experimental film, which they appropriately describe as “maximalist”.

The editing is unrelenting, with layers of sound collage and grainy digital shots of nature overlaid with MySpace-aesthetic animations, auto-tune, scenes of live theatre and TV clips of Tyra Banks and Naomi Campbell. There’s also director Maxy dancing with friends or chatting to them in the car about men they know on Instagram, and I feel like the impulse – in a festival context – is to tell you what all this is ABOUT, some decisive statement that makes the whole film cohere.

Read more:
The best films at this year’s Melbourne International Film Festival

This feels anathema to experimental film, which does sometimes intersect with the essay film (with an argument and something to say), but doesn’t have to. My reception of Gush was primarily aesthetic – I got a very tactile impression of the life Maxy was living at particular points while making this, and while the film is informed by relation to land, the digital era, indigeneity, trauma and gender it didn’t feel like it was making laboured statements about any of those things, as such. Rather, they give it its form.

Also – as I see someone clever on Letterboxd saying, it reads like “a series of bitchy Jonas Mekas TikToks”. A very funny comparison!

Phenomena (Dario Argento, Italy, 1985)

This was part of the festival’s Argento retrospective – new restoration prints of the horror and giallo master’s classics. And 1985’s lurid hallucination Phenomena is a total blast. It concerns a teenager (Jennifer Connelly) arriving at a foreign boarding school and encountering a serial killer targeting young women (well, the latter is a feature of nearly every Argento film).

There’s also a discovery that she can communicate with bugs telepathically, a sleepwalking affliction and a kindly wheelchair-bound etymologist (Donald Pleasance) and his support chimpanzee. The ludicrous plot is barely the point, though, as the film is primarily governed by a sense of dream logic, with one event linked to the next in the most tenuous fashion, and aided by an operatic 1980s rock soundtrack that completely knocks.

Phenomena culminates in a long set-piece where Connelly descends into a nightmarish underground complex, falls into a pit of maggots and decaying bodies (this scene actually made me retch), is chased by a deformed child, escapes via a boat which catches fire, summons a protective swarm of insects, and seems to have been saved only to have the antagonists fall and rise again in true slasher style.

The final minute involves a rescue so ridiculous the whole audience burst into celebratory laughter and applause. You can watch a film nearly anywhere, but you need to be in the cinema for that kind of delightful experience.

Grace Russell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The five best films at this year’s Melbourne International Film Festival – https://theconversation.com/the-five-best-films-at-this-years-melbourne-international-film-festival-210965

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rafal Chomik, Senior Research Fellow, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), UNSW Sydney

The Australian government has just released the latest iteration of its Intergenerational Report, the sixth since the first was published in 2002.

Each provides a snapshot of the sort of Australia in which future generations will find themselves in 40 years’ time, should current government policies continue.

Previous reports have dealt mainly with the impact of an older age profile on government budgets and our way of life. This one also made space for the impact of climate change.

1. Increasing optimism about ageing

The good news for future budgets in this report is that, although Australia’s population will still age rapidly, it is expected to age more slowly than previously thought.

The chart below shows the projections in each of the six reports for the proportion of the population aged 65 and over.

In 2002, the first intergenerational report predicted that by 2023 the share of the population aged 65 and over would have climbed from 12.5% to nearly 19%, and then would rise to 24.5% by 2042.

Yet, in the intervening years, Australia saw an unanticipated migration boom, which slowed that rate of ageing so that today only 17.3% of the population is aged 65 and over, and the projection for 2063 is 23.4%, less than the 24.5% originally expected for 2042.

These updated projections suggest that by 2063 Australia’s population will be younger than that of Italy now, or Japan a decade ago.

And ageing will slow further if net migration climbs higher than the 235,000 per year assumed in the latest report. A more reasonable migration assumption might be that it will in fact increase alongside increases in the total population.

2. Increased optimism about willing workers

The projections for labour force participation (the proportion of the adult population who are either working or making themselves available for work) have become more optimistic with each intergenerational report.

While participation is still expected to drop, the latest projection is for more of a glide than a dive, leaving participation higher in 2063 than it was in 2002.

As the report puts it, participation is projected to decline from a record high of 66.6% in 2023 to 63.8% by 2063.

The gentle slope of the decline reflects offsetting forces. More of us will be older and less able to work, but within most age groups, more of us will be in work.

3. Increased optimism about the cost of the pension

More optimistic demographic projections and sensible policy choices have resulted in less extreme increases in age-related spending.

Spending on pensions is projected to fall rather than climb as a share of the economy, falling from 2.3% to 2% of GDP. This is by design.

While in other countries pensions are more generous and increase with earnings, in Australia the age pension is more modest and reduces with means.

By pairing the age pension with superannuation, which increases people’s means in retirement, pension spending falls.

By the 2060s, pension spending in Australia will be less than half the rate of the next lowest-spending OECD country (though admittedly that comparison ignores tax expenditures on super).

4. Increased optimism about spending on health

Government spending on health as a proportion of GDP is still projected to increase, from 4.6% now to 6.2% in 2063, but is expected to remain well short of the first intergenerational report’s projection of more than 8% by 2042.

Only 40% of this projected increase in health spending is due to ageing, which ought not to be the least bit surprising.

As people and societies grow richer and satisfy more of their basic needs, they naturally want to spend more of what they have on extending their lives and improving their health, demanding more and better healthcare from government.

5. Increased pessimism about the cost of aged care

Spending on aged care is set to grow more than many other types of spending, albeit from a low base.

The Intergenerational Report has it doubling from 1.1% of GDP in to 2.5% in 2063.

The projection may well be an underestimate. Governments are yet to fully respond to demands for greater quality of care set out in the report of the royal commission into aged care quality and safety.

6. Increased pessimism about living standards

When it comes to resources for meeting the needs we need to meet, the Nobel prizewinning economist Paul Krugman famously noted in 1994 that productivity wasn’t everything, but in the long run it was “almost everything”.

Productivity growth, and assumptions about future productivity growth, have continued to decline with almost every intergenerational report.

The assumption for long-term productivity growth in this report is 1.2%, down from 1.75% in the 2002 intergenerational report.

The difference this makes is enormous. The 2002 intergenerational report had living standards (GDP per person) climbing 90% in 40 years. This latest intergenerational report has them climbing only 57% in the next 40 years.

7. A deteriorating Commonwealth budget

While slower ageing means this report predicts the government’s future budget deficits will be lower than those projected in all previous reports bar one, the budget is expected to be in a deepening deficit for much of the next 40 years.

Naturally, this can be fixed with more tax, but the projected lower rate of productivity growth means there will be relatively less to tax than was expected in the first intergenerational report in 2002.

Launching the report at the National Press Club, Treasurer Jim Chalmers talked about the need for action now on multiple fronts, saying there would “never be a quiet time to think about the future”.

But on raising more tax he was silent, suggesting it was a question for the future.

Read more:
The intergenerational report sets the scene for 2063 – but what is it?

Rafal Chomik works for the ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research which receives funding from the ARC.

– ref. Slower ageing, but slower economic growth: the Intergenerational Report in 7 charts – https://theconversation.com/slower-ageing-but-slower-economic-growth-the-intergenerational-report-in-7-charts-211695

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher Crellin, PhD Student / FNRS Aspirant, Université catholique de Louvain (UCLouvain)

As the world warms and the climate changes, people are experiencing more frequent and intense extreme weather events. Just this year, heatwaves blasted southern Europe, the United States and China; wildfires lit up Greece, Canada and Maui in Hawaii; and winter storms froze large parts of the US.

Our new research explores the connection between extreme weather events in Australia and public interest in climate change or global warming between 2009 and 2020. We found that bushfires, storms and floods tended to focus attention on climate change. But, crucially, the effect was short-lived and varied depending on the type of weather event.

In between extreme events, the level of interest in climate change does not appear to be increasing over time. This is despite developments in the science attributing extreme weather events to climate change, and the growing
tendency of the media to make these connections.

Climate activists and policymakers may be able to use these “focusing events” to raise awareness and harness support for stronger action.

Read more:
Why are so many climate records breaking all at once?

Do bushfires, storms and floods garner attention?

We collected data on extreme weather events from the Australian Disaster Resilience Knowledge Hub, which is managed by the Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience.

We concentrated on the bushfires, storms and floods that occurred in Australia between 2008 and 2020.

Using the Google Trends intensity index to measure people’s attention, we analysed the use of the search terms “climate change” and “global warming” in the months following each event.

We found more searches for climate change and global warming during the month of, and immediately after, an extreme weather event.

However, such heightened attention was rather short-lived. And there were differences in the intensity and duration of this attention, depending on the type of weather event.

Read more:
Yes, climate change is bringing bushfires more often. But some ecosystems in Australia are suffering the most

Major bushfires generated intense and sustained interest. During the month of a major bushfire, attention to climate change increased. The level of attention was higher still one month after the bushfire, and remained elevated for about four months.

Extreme storms prompted the most intense search activity but the effect did not last long. Attention to climate change dissipated one month after the storm.

Major flooding events did not appear to generate significant attention to climate change. This suggests Australians are more likely to think of climate change in terms of its tendency to cause hotter, drier weather, and less inclined to appreciate how it can cause wetter weather as well.

Although there is a growing trend within the media to underscore the connection between extreme weather events and climate change over the past decade, this does not seem to be generating more climate attention. For instance, while the Black Summer bushfires drove an exceptional uptick in climate attention, the same occurred during the Black Saturday bushfires a decade earlier.

Read more:
Here’s why climate change isn’t always to blame for extreme rainfall

It’s worth paying attention to attention

Australia has been described as “the petri-dish of climate change”. Our continent is prone to a variety of severe climate impacts such as droughts, floods, fires, storms and coral bleaching, and yet we’re also one of the world’s worst climate laggards.

Understanding how Australians respond to extreme weather events could serve as a much-needed catalyst for national climate progress.

But increased climate ambition is not guaranteed to flow from these destructive events. That’s because climate attention is quite short-lived, and not always as intense as one might hope.

We believe our research can help activists and policymakers capitalise on the increased intensity and duration of public interest in climate change following extreme events and translate that attention into a sustained appetite for climate policy action.

Read more:
Fear and Wonder podcast: how scientists attribute extreme weather events to climate change

Christopher Crellin receives funding from Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique.

Robert MacNeil does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Bushfires focus public attention on climate change for months, but it’s different for storms and floods – https://theconversation.com/bushfires-focus-public-attention-on-climate-change-for-months-but-its-different-for-storms-and-floods-212096

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jenny Graves, Distinguished Professor of Genetics and Vice Chancellor’s Fellow, La Trobe University

The Y chromosome is a never-ending source of fascination (particularly to men) because it bears genes that determine maleness and make sperm. It’s also small and seriously weird; it carries few genes and is full of junk DNA that makes it horrendous to sequence.

However, new “long-read” sequencing techniques have finally provided a reliable sequence from one end of the Y to the other. The paper describing this Herculean effort has been published in Nature.

The findings provide a solid base to explore how genes for sex and sperm work, how the Y chromosome evolved, and whether – as predicted – it will disappear in a few million years.

Making baby boys

We have known for about 60 years that specialised chromosomes determine birth sex in humans and other mammals. Females have a pair of X chromosomes, whereas males have a single X and a much smaller Y chromosome.

The Y chromosome is male-determining because it bears a gene called SRY, which directs the development of a ridge of cells into a testis in the embryo. The embryonic testes make male hormones, and these hormones direct the development of male features in a baby boy.

Without a Y chromosome and a SRY gene, the same ridge of cells develops into an ovary in XX embryos. Female hormones then direct the development of female features in the baby girl.

A DNA junkyard

The Y chromosome is very different from X and the 22 other chromosomes of the human genome. It is smaller and bears few genes (only 27 compared to about 1,000 on the X).

These include SRY, a few genes required to make sperm, and several genes that seem to be critical for life – many of which have partners on the X.
Many Y genes (including the sperm genes RBMY and DAZ) are present in multiple copies. Some occur in weird loops in which the sequence is inverted and genetic accidents that duplicate or delete genes are common.

The Y also has a lot of DNA sequences that don’t seem to contribute to traits. This “junk DNA” is comprised of highly repetitive sequences that derive from bits and pieces of old viruses, dead genes and very simple runs of a few bases repeated over and over.

This last DNA class occupies big chunks of the Y that literally glow in the dark; you can see it down the microscope because it preferentially binds fluorescent dyes.

Read more:
We discovered a missing gene fragment that’s shedding new light on how males develop

Why the Y is weird

Why is the Y like this? Blame evolution.

We have a lot of evidence that 150 million years ago the X and Y were just a pair of ordinary chromosomes (they still are in birds and platypuses). There were two copies – one from each parent – as there are for all chromosomes.

Then SRY evolved (from an ancient gene with another function) on one of these two chromosomes, defining a new proto-Y. This proto-Y was forever confined to a testis, by definition, and subject to a barrage of mutations as a result of a lot of cell division and little repair.

The proto-Y degenerated fast, losing about 10 active genes per million years, reducing the number from its original 1,000 to just 27. A small “pseudoautosomal” region at one end retains its original form and is identical to its erstwhile partner, the X.

There has been great debate about whether this degradation continues, because at this rate the whole human Y would disappear in a few million years (as it already has in some rodents).

Read more:
Men are slowly losing their Y chromosome, but a new sex gene discovery in spiny rats brings hope for humanity

Sequencing Y was a nightmare

The first draft of the human genome was completed in 1999. Since then, scientists have managed to sequence all the ordinary chromosomes, including the X, with just a few gaps.

They’ve done this using short-read sequencing, which involves chopping the DNA into little bits of a hundred or so bases and reassembling them like a jigsaw.

But it’s only recently that new technology has allowed sequencing of bases along individual long DNA molecules, producing long-reads of thousands of bases. These longer reads are easier to distinguish and can therefore be assembled more easily, handling the confusing repetitions and loops of the Y chromosome.

The Y is the last human chromosome to have been sequenced end-to-end, or T2T (telomere-to-telomere). Even with long-read technology, assembling the DNA bits was often ambiguous, and researchers had to make several attempts at difficult regions – particularly the highly repetitive region.

So what’s new on the Y?

Spoiler alert – the Y turns out to be just as weird as we expected from decades of gene mapping and the previous sequencing.

A few new genes have been discovered, but these are extra copies of genes that were already known to exist in multiple copies. The border of the pseudoautosomal region (which is shared with the X) has been pushed a bit further toward the tip of the Y chromosome.

We now know the structure of the centromere (a region of the chromosome that pulls copies apart when the cell divides), and have a complete readout of the complex mixture of repetitive sequences in the fluorescent end of the Y.

But perhaps the most important outcome is how useful the findings will be for scientists all over the world.

Some groups will now examine the details of Y genes. They will look for sequences that might control how SRY and the sperm genes are expressed, and to see whether genes that have X partners have retained the same functions or evolved new ones.

Others will closely examine the repeated sequences to determine where and how they originated, and why they were amplified. Many groups will also analyse the Y chromosomes of men from different corners of the world to detect signs of degeneration, or recent evolution of function.

It’s a new era for the poor old Y.

Jenny Graves receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. The ‘weird’ male Y chromosome has finally been fully sequenced. Can we now understand how it works, and how it evolved? – https://theconversation.com/the-weird-male-y-chromosome-has-finally-been-fully-sequenced-can-we-now-understand-how-it-works-and-how-it-evolved-212112

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Fitz-Gibbon, Director, Monash Gender and Family Violence Prevention Centre; Professor of Social Sciences, Faculty of Arts, Monash University

There is increasing attention on the lack of progress around sexual harassment and assault on Australian university campuses. On Wednesday, Education Minister Jason Clare acknowledged community concerns, saying “we’re just not doing enough”.

Much of the focus so far has been on students. A 2022 report found one in 20 students had been sexually assaulted, and one in six had been sexually harassed, in a university context since starting their studies.

But staff are also at risk.

Last month, the Universities Accord interim report said sexual assault and harassment on campus are “affecting the wellbeing of students and staff, and their ability to succeed”.

Earlier this week, the National Tertiary Education Union launched a national survey of university staff experiences of workplace sexual harassment.

Our research on workplace sexual harassment in Australia sheds light on university staff experiences of harassment and the inadequacy of responses.

À lire aussi :
‘More obviously needs to be done’: how to make Australian universities safe from sexual violence

Our study

In 2022 we conducted a national survey of victim-survivor experiences of workplace sexual harassment in Australia. We received 1,412 responses from a diverse range of industries.

Within this, there were 100 respondents who had experienced workplace sexual harassment while working at an Australian university.

University staff experiences of workplace sexual harassment

Almost all (90%) of the victim-survivors in our survey identified as a woman or female, with 7% identifying as a man or male and 3% as non-binary.

This reflects the gendered nature of workplace sexual harassment.

Almost 80% of our respondents believed their gender contributed to the harassment, while 47% believed their age was a contributor. Revealing well-known patterns of power and control, 40% of perpetrators were identified as being more than 55 years old, and were often in more senior positions compared with the victim-survivor.

No victim-survivors were harassed by a more junior colleague.

Workplace sexual harassment is frequent and ongoing

We invited victim-survivors to detail the frequency and duration of their experience of workplace sexual harassment. Among university staff, we found:

• 23% experienced sexual harassment on a weekly basis

• 21% experienced sexual harassment on a monthly basis

• 31% experienced sexual harassment for more than a year.

These findings point to the ongoing nature of this abuse. Few victim-survivors experienced workplace sexual harassment as a one-off incident.

Witnesses rarely intervene

Among these victim-survivors, incidents of sexual harassment were well known in the university and often involved the same perpetrators. Almost half (46%) said there were witnesses to their experience, with 18% noting four or more people had witnessed the incident. Of those whose victimisation was witnessed, in only 15% of cases did a witness intervene.

Of those surveyed, 71% of the victim-survivors knew someone else who had experienced sexual harassment in the same workplace. And 72% of those also knew their harasser had harassed someone else in that workplace.

This highlights the importance of improving bystanders’ responses, and tackling the underlying culture of silence.

The role of job security

Recent debates have suggested the high numbers of casual staff in universities prevents victim-survivors from coming forward, because they are worried about losing their jobs.

But our research suggests any type of university employee can be at risk.

Half of the university staff who responded to our survey felt their employment was insecure at the time they were sexually harassed. These respondents were not just casual staff, but had both fixed-term and full-time positions.

À lire aussi :
Australian unis could not function without casual staff: it is time to treat them as ‘real’ employees

A lack of consequences

Of those surveyed, 24% of victim-survivors had lodged a formal report or complaint with their university. More than 80% of those victim-survivors were dissatisfied with the response received, and more than 70% said the university did not change anything in an attempt to detect, prevent or better respond to future workplace sexual harassment.

Numerous victim-survivors said they were not aware of any consequences for the perpetrator. But to manage their own safety or as a result of the impacts of the experience, they left the university.

What now?

The union’s survey will increase transparency of the problem, which is a key step. But it is crucial this issue does not become politicised. We have a national plan with a target of eliminating gender-based violence in one generation. Tackling gender-based violence in workplaces will be key to achieving this.

Clare has appointed a working group to provide advice on how universities can “create safer campuses” for students and staff. State and federal education ministers are expecting recommendations before the end of the year. The final Universities Accord report is also due in December.

Peak body Universities Australia has also noted “much more is required of us collectively” when it comes to sexual harm on campuses.

Universities need to take the lead on this issue. They need to create cultures of accountability for perpetrators and processes that support and validate victim-survivors’ experiences. They also need to implement clear actions to prevent sexual harassment and drive cultural change to ensure universities are safe and respectful places for staff and students.

À lire aussi :
The Universities Accord draft contains ‘spiky’ ideas, but puts a question mark over the spikiest one of all

Kate has received funding for family violence related research from the Australian Research Council, Australian Institute of Criminology, Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety, the Victorian Government and the Department of Social Services. This piece is written by Kate Fitz-Gibbon in her capacity as Director of the Monash Gender and Family Violence Prevention Centre and is wholly independent of Kate Fitz-Gibbon’s role as Chair of Respect Victoria.

Nicola Helps currently receives funding for family violence related research from the Victorian Government.

Stefani Vasil has received funding from Respect Victoria and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

– ref. Sexual harassment impacts university staff – our research shows how – https://theconversation.com/sexual-harassment-impacts-university-staff-our-research-shows-how-211996

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Scott Luskin, Researcher and Lecturer in Conservation Science, The University of Queensland

It’s easy to assume protected areas such as national parks conserve wildlife – that seems obvious. But what is the proof? And how does park success vary across different ecosystems – in deserts versus tropical rainforests, or wetlands versus oceans?

While we can use satellite imagery to measure the effect of protected areas in reducing human impacts such as logging, you can’t see the animals from space. In particularly dense tropical rainforests, it was nearly impossible to accurately monitor wildlife, until remotely triggered camera traps became available in the past decade.

There is a longstanding conservation debate on the benefits that protected areas such as national parks have for biodiversity.

Some scientists have argued that conservation success inside park boundaries may come at the expense of neighbouring unprotected habitats. Essentially, they suggest parks displace impacts such as hunting and logging to other nearby areas. The technical term for this is leakage.

On the other hand, marine parks have often reported higher biodiversity nearby. Fish reproduce successfully inside park boundaries and their offspring disperse, benefiting surrounding habitats in a “spillover” effect.

We set out to see which of those effects actually prevails in protected land areas and their surrounds. Our new study, published today in Nature, shows parks do enhance bird diversity inside their borders. Large parks also support higher diversity of both birds and mammals in nearby unprotected areas.

Read more:
The new major players in conservation? NGOs thrive while national parks struggle

What did the study look at?

We recruited an international team of scientists to conduct a comprehensive analysis of bird and mammal diversity inside and outside parks across South-East Asia. We used more than 2,000 cameras and bird surveys across the region.

South-East Asia is one of the most biodiverse regions on Earth, but hunting is a key concern. It’s a prime suspect for why diversity has often been assumed to decline outside protected park areas.

Hunters are mobile, so hunting bans within park boundaries may only displace these activities to nearby unprotected areas, undermining their net benefit. To be honest, we were surprised mammal diversity was higher outside large parks. It’s common to see hunters both inside and outside parks in many countries.

We expected hunters’ removal of game animals would reduce diversity outside parks. However, it appears large parks limit the impacts of hunting so it does not completely remove these animals. Specifically, when comparing unprotected areas near large reserves to unprotected areas that didn’t border large reserves, we found large reserves boosted mammal diversity in unprotected areas by up to 194%.

However, a sad note from our study was the finding that only larger parks significantly enhanced mammal diversity, casting doubt on the effectiveness of smaller parks for mammal conservation. Recent work in the region suggests many large mammals persist in small parks, but our study shows the presence of a few resilient animals in small parks doesn’t scale up to higher biodiversity overall.

Read more:
In protecting land for wildlife, size matters – here’s what it takes to conserve very large areas

Not all parks are equal

These findings are especially timely for the United Nations, which recently announced more ambitious biodiversity targets, including significant expansions of global protected areas. The UN strategy is to conserve 30% of Earth’s lands and waters by 2030 – the so-called “30 by 30 goal”. Massive expansions of the global area of protected land will be difficult and expensive, but our results support this approach.

The work provides a clear case for park design to consider size. Larger parks routinely had higher bird diversity. Large mammals such as tigers and elephants travel huge distances and don’t see park boundaries drawn on maps. Larger parks support these wide-ranging animals that move across entire landscapes.

Considering the UN’s goal of increasing protected area to 30% of the world’s surface, our findings support the creation of fewer larger parks, rather than many smaller ones.

Read more:
Protecting 30% of Australia’s land and sea by 2030 sounds great – but it’s not what it seems

Next steps in South-East Asia and Australia

Our findings also provide a much-needed conservation “win” for South-East Asia. Despite being a biodiversity hotspot, the region suffers from high rates of forest loss and hunting, which pose threats to birds and mammals.

Our team built a collaborative network and massive database to conduct the analysis, and this can also be used to answer other questions. Our next project will quantify shifts in abundance – the numbers of animals rather than numbers of species – inside and outside parks. We suspect parks will support increased mammal and bird abundances, even more than increased in wildlife diversity.

Based on the success of the Asian collaborative network project, a related team is now building a domestic collaborative network and database to conduct similar analyses, called Wildlife Observatory of Australia. Key questions will include the impact of fire and climate change on Australia’s wildlife diversity and abundance.

The research discussed in this article was supported by the United Nations Development Programme, NASA grants NNL15AA03C and 80NSSC21K0189, the National Geographic Society’s Committee for the Research and Exploration award #9384–13, the Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Researcher Award DECRA #DE210101440, the Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, the Ministry of Higher Education Malaysia, Nanyang Technological University Singapore, the Darwin Initiative, Liebniz-IZW, and the Universities of Aberdeen, British Columbia, Montana and Queensland. Mammal data collection in one study area (out of 65) was funded by Sarawak Energy Berhad; no personnel from that agency participated in the data collection or analysis or reviewed the manuscript before it was submitted.

– ref. Leakage or spillover? Conservation parks boost biodiversity outside them – but there’s a catch, new study shows – https://theconversation.com/leakage-or-spillover-conservation-parks-boost-biodiversity-outside-them-but-theres-a-catch-new-study-shows-212014

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The Australia of the 2060s will be very different from the one we know today. It will be older, with slower economic growth, a big “care” economy, and an export sector that is radically transformed due to the imperatives of climate change.

The Intergenerational Report, released by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, says five main forces will shape Australia’s economy over the coming four decades.

They are:

• population ageing

• expanded use of digital and data technology

• climate change and the net zero transformation

• rising demand for care and support services

• increased geopolitical risk and fragmentation.

These forces will “change how Australians live, work, and engage with the world”.

The economy will be about two and a half times as big, and real incomes are expected to be 50% higher by 2062-63. On the downside, economic growth will be slow – growing at an average pace of 2.2% over the coming four decades, from an average of 3.1% over the previous four decades.

Average annual growth

Population will also increase more slowly than previously – by an average of just 1.1% annually. The report projects 40.5 million people in the early 2060s. Migration is projected to fall as a share of the population. While the number of people 65 and over will double, Australia is still expected to have a younger population than most advanced countries.

With an ageing population, the rate of participation in the workforce is expected to fall gradually – from 66.6% to 63.8%. Average hours worked would also fall slightly, from about 32 to about 31. The gender pay gap would continue to narrow.

Productivity growth will remain in the slow lane, although its future path is

not a foregone conclusion and will be influenced by decisions taken by government, business, and investors, and by the big shifts underway in the global and domestic economy.

Changes in Australia’s industrial base will be driven by technology, climate change and the energy transformation, and the growing demand for care and support services, as well as geopolitical uncertainty.

The net zero transformation will hit coal exports, but boost the export of so-called critical minerals.

“Climate change and the net zero transformation will have a significant impact on the structure of the economy and the choices Australian consumers and businesses make,” the report says.

Australia is in a strong position to benefit with some of the world’s largest reserves of critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt and rare earth elements, which are key inputs to clean energy technologies. With abundant wind, sun and open spaces Australia also has the potential to generate green energy more cheaply than many countries.

The report warns that domestically, climate change will affect how we live and work, as well as food and energy security, and the environment.

The ageing population will strengthen the trend towards a service-based economy, with the care and support sector potentially doubling over the coming four decades.

Components of real income growth per capita

The budget in 40 years will see already-familiar spending pressures – in health, aged care, the National Disability Insurance Scheme, defence, and debt interest.

Collectively, these are projected to increase from about a third to about a half of all government spending.

Total government spending is projected to rise by 3.8 percentage points of GDP over the next 40 years. About 40% of this increase is caused by ageing.

Total income support and education payments are expected to continue to rise in real terms per person but fall as a share of GDP as Australia ages. Spending on age and service pensions will fall as a share of GDP, with superannuation increasingly funding retirement.

Increase in payments across the five main spending pressures
Per cent of GDP, 2022–23 to 2062–63

There will be pressure in the coming 40 years on the revenue base, which will be eroded by the decarbonisation of transport and also a hit to tobacco excise.

Australia’s gross debt as a share of GDP is set to decline over coming decades, but there will be deficits. The budget is currently in surplus but the report says “deficits are projected to remain over the long term”. Initially narrow. they will widen from the 2040s because of spending pressures.

Launching the report at the National press Club Chalmers said the government’s immediate obligation was to do what it could to ease cost-of-living pressures without adding to inflation.

“But the critics out there who say that we need to wait before engaging with our long-term prospects just don’t seem to get it,” he said.

“There will never be a quiet time to think about the future. There will always be competing pressures and urgent calls on our attention.

“The best leaders can focus on more than one thing, more than one horizon, more than one set of opportunities.”

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. A very different country: the Intergenerational Report’s picture of Australia in the 2060s – https://theconversation.com/a-very-different-country-the-intergenerational-reports-picture-of-australia-in-the-2060s-212185

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Theresa Larkin, Associate professor of Medical Sciences, University of Wollongong

On social media and in wellbeing circles, people have been talking about the vagus nerve a lot. In fact, we have two vagus nerves – a left and a right – and their optimal functioning is essential for good physical and mental health.

Many social media posts describe ways to reset the vagus nerves to reduce stress and increase calm. These mostly focus on yoga, meditation, deep breathing and cold plunges.

But the vagus nerves also play a part in why socialising, sex and sports are good for our health and wellbeing.

Read more:
9 signs you have inflammation in your body. Could an anti-inflammatory diet help?

Our rest-and-digest-and-restore system

The sympathetic nervous system produces our fight-or-flight response to perceived threats. The vagus nerves are part of the parasympathetic nervous system, which does the opposite: rest, digest and restore.

The sympathetic nervous system increases heart and breathing rates, slows down digestion and lowers the immune response. Stimulation of the vagus nerves reduces heart rate, promotes healthy digestion and metabolism, increases blood flow to organs and reduces inflammation.

It is healthy to activate our sympathetic nervous system during exercise and short-term stress. But ongoing stimulation of the sympathetic nervous system is not healthy.

The parasympathetic nervous system via the vagus nerves is the counterbalance to our stress response. It makes us more calm, relaxed and sociable.

The vasovagal response is an over-reaction of the vagus nerves to counterbalance a stress. This is when an excessive drop in blood pressure and heart rate causes a person to feel dizzy or faint.

The wandering nerve

Vagus means wandering in Latin and is where the words vagrant, vagabond and vague come from. The name reflects the long pathway and extensive branching of our vagus nerves. These are the tenth cranial nerves, the longest of the 12 pairs of cranial nerves that connect the brainstem and the body.

The vagus nerves run down the neck where they are about 5mm in diameter. They travel into the thoracic (chest) cavity and send branches to the heart and lungs, then pass through the diaphragm to innervate nearly all the abdominal organs.

We mostly hear of the effects of the vagus nerves on our organs, such as reducing heart rate. However, about 80% of vagus nerve fibres carry information from organs back to our brain. This forms part of the bidirectional gut-brain axis. This can explain the “butterflies in your stomach” when you feel nervous, and why gastrointestinal problems can cause anxiety and depression.

Read more:
What is POTS? And how is it related to long COVID?

Can you measure the health of vagus nerves?

It is not possible to directly measure vagal tone (the level of activity in the nerves). Instead, heart-rate variability is used as a surrogate measure of vagus nerve activity. This is the slight beat-to-beat differences in heart rate that occur naturally, related to breathing. When you inhale, your heart rate speeds up. When you slowly exhale, it slows down.

Vagus-nerve stimulation slows the heart rate but increases heart-rate variability. These are both healthy because they indicate higher parasympathetic and lower sympathetic activation. A lower heart rate indicates the heart is working efficiently. Higher heart rate variability suggests the body is more relaxed.

Many wearable devices measure heart rate and heart-rate variability and can be a useful way to monitor vagal tone.

So is there any science to back the vagal nerve hacks online?

Yoga practice and slow diaphragmatic breathing with a long exhalation stimulate the vagus nerves directly or via relaxation. Cold-water immersion on the face or neck stimulates the vagus nerves via a reflex of the skin’s nerves.

Singing and humming can increase our vagal tone because the vagus nerve innervates our larynx (voicebox).

There are also claims simple eye movements can reset the vagus nerve. This has not been tested scientifically. But there is an oculocardiac reflex where activation of the eye muscles stimulates the vagus nerves. Pressure on the eyes also stimulates this reflex. This might be why one natural reaction when we feel stressed is to press our eyes.

Craniosacral therapy is a form of osteopathy that involves gentle touch and movements around the base of the skull and the sacrum. This has been shown to reduce cortisol and increase parasympathetic activity.

Carotid sinus massage can also be used clinically to increase vagus nerve activation and lower a high heart rate. Light massage of the carotid artery in the neck stimulates blood pressure receptors, which causes reflex activation of the vagus nerves to reduce heart rate. This should only be done by a clinician or with professional advice, for 5 to 10 seconds and never both sides at once, which can cause fainting.

Social connection and feeling safe

Polyvagal theory suggests positive social communication and feeling safe increases vagus nerve activity. This promotes healthy growth and restoration activities in our body and increases positive emotions.

The vagus nerves have a role in social communication because they are linked with our facial expressions and voice. Smiling and being smiled at can stimulate our vagus nerves.

Sport, sex and slowing down

Sports and sex are both associated with high sympathetic nervous system activation. When intimacy or competitive sport happen in a safe, social and supportive environment, the vagus nerves are also stimulated. Having a short-term stress response followed by the counterbalancing recovery effects of vagus nerves is healthy.

Slowing down with others, such as lying down next to a friend on a picnic blanket and looking at the clouds, also stimulates the vagus nerves. This is a safe way to reduce our energy requirements and rest while also being socially connected.

Whether it’s through mindfulness, paced breathing, sports, sex or simply smiling, increased vagal tone is important for good health and wellbeing. There is a lot of hype online and some of it may be over the top. But reduced stress and greater relaxation are safe for everyone and have positive effects for our body and brain.

Read more:
Forget nose spray, good sex clears a stuffy nose just as effectively — and is a lot more fun

Theresa Larkin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Our vagus nerves help us rest, digest and restore. Can you really reset them to feel better? – https://theconversation.com/our-vagus-nerves-help-us-rest-digest-and-restore-can-you-really-reset-them-to-feel-better-210469

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Plank, Professor in Applied Mathematics, University of Canterbury

Interventions designed to limit the spread of COVID have been rolled back around the world. In New Zealand, the government removed all remaining public health measures last week.

But although the emergency is over and the disease is rapidly becoming endemic, the risk of new variants remains. COVID is still causing a significant health burden.

Is there more we could be doing to prevent infections?

We lack quality evidence about how effective different interventions are. But simple maths shows that, in the long term, the prevalence of a highly infectious endemic virus like SARS-CoV-2 is quite difficult to budge.

The basic reproduction number

Back in 2020, we heard a lot about the basic reproduction number or R0. This is the average number of people someone infects when the whole population is susceptible to the disease. With a susceptible population, if R0 is above 1 the disease spreads exponentially.

This situation prompted governments around the world to implement intensive response measures, including lockdowns, to prevent health systems from becoming completely overwhelmed.

Read more:
The inside story of Recovery: how the world’s largest COVID-19 trial transformed treatment – and what it could do for other diseases

The situation in 2023 is vastly different. Almost everyone has some form of immunity, acquired either from vaccination, previous infection, or both. However, people will eventually become susceptible again because of waning immunity and new variants.

This in turn means the virus won’t disappear altogether. Instead, the prevalence of infection will eventually reach what mathematicians call an endemic equilibrium. This is a state of balance: the loss of immunity due to its waning (and the cycle of births and deaths) is balanced by new immunity due to infections and vaccinations.

We don’t expect infection rates to be perfectly steady. Prevalence will rise and fall, influenced by seasons, school holidays and new subvariants, but it will always be pulled back towards the equilibrium level.

Read more:
The WHO has declared Eris a ‘variant of interest’. How is it different from other Omicron variants?

Controlling the disease

Unlike measles or polio, it’s impossible to eliminate COVID with the tools currently available. But that doesn’t mean we can’t reduce its impacts. Effective control measures should reduce the number of contacts infectious people have, or the risk of infection per contact. And this should lower the level of the endemic equilibrium, meaning there are fewer infections.

That’s certainly true, but how much effect do control measures realistically have for a virus like SARS-CoV-2?

R0 for the Omicron variant has been estimated between 6 and 10. But the effective reproduction number – the average number of people someone infects at the present time – is much closer to 1. In New Zealand, this number has hovered between 0.8 and 1.2 for the past year.

This tells us something about the amount of immunity in the population. If an average person would infect six people in a fully susceptible population, but only infects one person in reality, that means five out of six people must be immune. If R0=10, then nine out of ten people must be immune, and so on.

The maths of immunity

People may have acquired immunity through vaccination, but the protection vaccines provide against infection with current Omicron variants is relatively low and short-lived.

The majority of immunity comes from previous infections, including infections in vaccinated people. This is called “hybrid immunity” and it provides better protection than infection or vaccination alone. (This doesn’t mean that getting infected to get immunity should ever be a goal, but it is an important side effect).

Read more:
Hybrid immunity: a combination of vaccination and prior infection probably offers the best protection against COVID

A consequence of this is that the fraction of the population that is immune at a given point in time is proportional to the number of infections per year. It turns out this allows us to estimate the benefit of interventions.

For example, suppose R0=6 and a control measure, such as isolation of all confirmed cases, reduces infectious contacts by 20%. That’s equivalent to reducing R0 to 4.8, which means the immune fraction is reduced from 83% of the population to 79%. That’s only a 5% relative reduction in the number of yearly infections, even though the transmission rate was reduced by 20%.

If R0=10, the maths is even more dismal: the same control measure only gives a 3% reduction in infections.

What’s the reason for this surprising finding? To begin with, the intervention reduces the number of infections, which is good. But an unfortunate side effect is that fewer people become immune, which means infections start to increase again.

Things eventually balance out at a lower level than without the intervention, but most of the benefit is sucked up by compensating for the lost immunity in the population.

For pathogens that are much less infectious than SARS-CoV-2, the opposite can be true. If R0=1.2, then a 20% reduction in infectious contacts would be enough to set the disease on a trajectory towards total elimination.

Targeted protection

The arguments above come from a mathematical model that captures the processes behind disease transmission in a simple way. Reality is more complicated. The susceptible-immune binary is a simplification because immunity is not black and white but shades of grey.

And populations are highly varied, not homogeneous. Infections will be more frequent in groups with high contact rates, which typically means younger people. Mathematically, that means infection rates will be harder to budge in younger groups and relatively easier to bring down in older groups.

Interventions targeted towards vulnerable groups are likely to be more effective than blanket measures. Importantly, although reducing infection rates in the long term is difficult, vaccines provide direct protection for those who take them and continue to be highly effective at preventing severe disease.

None of this is an argument that we shouldn’t try to reduce the prevalence of endemic diseases like COVID. But it does mean we can’t assume that a reduction in the number of infectious contacts will translate to an equivalent reduction in infection rates.

Read more:
Long COVID stemmed from mild cases of COVID-19 in most people, according to a new multicountry study

Decreasing the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections would be highly beneficial. It would reduce the acute health burden, the incidence of long COVID, and the level of risk for vulnerable groups.

But it’s not a goal we can afford to pursue at any cost. There is a range of healthcare needs competing for limited resources, so any measures need to be cost effective. And that means being realistic about the size of the benefits they’re likely to deliver.

Michael Plank receives funding from the New Zealand Ministry of Health for research related to mathematical modelling of COVID-19.

Freya Shearer receives funding from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council and the Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care.

James McCaw receives funding from the Australian Government Departments of Health and Foreign Affairs and Trade, the Australian Research Council and the National Health and Medical Research Council. He is an invited expert member of the Communicable Disease Network of Australia and between January 2020 and May 2022 was an invited expert member of the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee.

James Wood receives funding the National Health and Medical Research Council for projects on COVID-19. He previously received funding from NSW Health (2021-23) the federal government (2020-21) and from WHO Western Pacific Regional Office (2020) as part of COVID responses. He is a current member of the Australian Technical Advisory Committee on Immunisation.

– ref. With COVID now endemic, modelling suggests targeted protection will be more effective than blanket measures – https://theconversation.com/with-covid-now-endemic-modelling-suggests-targeted-protection-will-be-more-effective-than-blanket-measures-211819

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emily Reeve, Senior Research Fellow in the Centre for Medicine Use and Safety , Monash University

People are living longer and with more chronic health conditions – including heart disease, diabetes, arthritis and dementia – than ever before. As societies continue to grow older, one pressing concern is the use of multiple medications, a phenomenon known as polypharmacy.

About 1 million older Australians experience polypharmacy and this group is increasing. They may wake up in the morning and pop a pill for their heart, then another one or two to control blood pressure, a couple more if they have diabetes, a vitamin pill and maybe one for joint pain.

Polypharmacy is usually defined as taking five or more different medications daily. In aged care homes, 90% of residents take at least five regular medications every single day. That can put their health at risk with increased costs for them and the health system.

Read more:
Considering going off antidepressants? Here’s what to think about first

Adding up over time

As people age, the effects of medications can change. Some medications, which were once beneficial, might start to do more harm than good or might not be needed anymore. About half of older Australians are taking a medication where the likely harms outweigh the potential benefits.

While polypharmacy is sometimes necessary and helpful in managing multiple health conditions, it can lead to unintended consequences.

Prescription costs can quickly add up. Taking multiple medications can be difficult to manage particularly when there are specific instructions to crush them or take them with food, or when extra monitoring is needed. There is also a risk of drug interactions.

Medications bought “over the counter” without a prescription, such as vitamins, herbal medications or pain relievers, can also cause problems. Some people might take an over-the-counter medication each day due to previous advice, but they might not need it anymore. Just like prescription medications, over-the-counter medications add to the overall burden and cost of polypharmacy as well as drug interactions and side effects.

Unfortunately, the more medications you take, the more likely you are to have problems with your medications, a reduced quality of life and increased risk of falls, hospitalisation and death. Each year, 250,000 Australians are admitted to hospital due to medication-related harms, many of which are preventable. For example, use of multiple medications like sleeping pills, strong pain relievers and some blood pressure medications can cause drowsiness and dizziness, potentially resulting in a fall and broken bones.

Read more:
Taking an antidepressant? Mixing it with other medicines – including some cold and flu treatments – can be dangerous

Prescribing and deprescribing are both important

Ensuring safe and effective use of medications involves both prescribing, and deprescribing them.

Deprescribing is a process of stopping (or reducing the dose of) medications that are no longer required, or for which the risk of harm outweighs the benefits for the person taking them.

The process involves reviewing all the medications a person takes with a health-care professional to identify medications that should be stopped.

Think of deprescribing as spring cleaning your medicine cabinet. Just like how you tidy up your house and get rid of objects that are causing clutter without being useful, deprescribing tidies up your medication list to keep only the ones truly required.

But care is needed

The process of deprescribing requires close monitoring and, for many medications, slow reductions in dose (tapering).

This helps the body adjust gradually and can prevent sudden, unpleasant changes. Deprescribing is often done on a trial basis and medication can be restarted if symptoms come back. Alternatively, a safer medication, or non-drug treatment may be started in its place.

Studies show deprescribing is a safe process when managed by a health-care professional, both for people living at home and those in residential aged care. You should always talk with your care team before stopping any medications.

Deprescribing needs to be a team effort involving the person, their health-care team and possibly family or other carers. Shared decision-making throughout the process empowers the person taking medications to have a say in their health care. The team can work together to clarify treatment goals and decide which medications are still serving the person well and which can be safely discontinued.

If you or a loved one take multiple medications you might be eligible for a free visit from a pharmacist (a Home Medicines Review) to help you get the best out of your medications.

Read more:
Always forgetting to take your medicines? Here are 4 things that could help

What’s next?

Health care has traditionally focused on prescribing medications, with little focus on when to stop them. Deprescribing is not happening as often as it should. Researchers are working hard to develop tools, resources and service models to support deprescribing in the community.

Health-care professionals may think older adults are not open to deprescribing, but about eight out of ten people are willing to stop one or more of their medications. That said, of course some people may have concerns. If you have been taking a medication for a long time, you might wonder why you should stop or whether your health could get worse if you do. These are important questions to ask a doctor or pharmacist.

We need more public awareness about polypharmacy and deprescribing to turn the tide of increasing medication use and related harms.

Read more:
Boomers have a drug problem, but not the kind you might think

In the past five years, Emily Reeve has received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), Australian Association of Gerontology, Nova Scotia Health Research Foundation, Canadian Frailty Network, United States NIH, Australian Commission On Safety And Quality In Health Care, and US Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. She has also received honorarium for writing and presentations from the US Deprescribing Research Network, Encyclopedia of Pharmacy Practice and Clinical Pharmacy (Elsevier), UpToDate (Wolters Kluwer), and Society of Hospital Pharmacists of Australia. She is Chair of the Australian Deprescribing Network (ADeN).

Jacinta Lee Johnson is senior pharmacist for research within SA Pharmacy and Board Director for the Society of Hospital Pharmacists of Australia. In the last five years, she has received research funding or consultancy funds (for development and delivery of educational materials) from SA Health, the Medical Research Future Fund, the Hospital Research Foundation – Parkinson’s, the Pharmaceutical Society of Australia, the Pharmacy Guild of Australia, the Society of Hospital Pharmacists of Australia, Mundipharma Pty Ltd, Aspen Pharmacare Australia Pty Ltd and Viatris Pty Ltd.

In the last five years, Janet Sluggett has received research funding, prizes or consultancy funds from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Medical Research Future Fund, Australian Association of Consultant Pharmacy, Dementia Centre for Research Collaboration and various professional societies. In addition to her research appointments, she is a non-executive director of the Australian MedicAlert Foundation and Southern Cross Care SA, NT, Victoria. She is a registered pharmacist who is accredited to perform Home Medicines Reviews.

Kate O’Hara is affiliated with the Society of Hospital Pharmacists of Australia (SHPA).

– ref. Taking more than 5 pills a day? ‘Deprescribing’ can prevent harm – especially for older people – https://theconversation.com/taking-more-than-5-pills-a-day-deprescribing-can-prevent-harm-especially-for-older-people-211424

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Georgina Falster, Postdoctoral Fellow, Australian National University

After a rare three-year La Niña event brought heavy rain and flooding to eastern Australia in 2020-22, we’re now bracing for the heat and drought of El Niño at the opposite end of the spectrum.

But while the World Meteorological Organisation has declared an El Niño event is underway, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology is yet to make a similar declaration. Instead, the Bureau remains on “El Niño alert”.

The reason for this discrepancy is what’s called the Pacific Walker Circulation. The pattern and strength of air flows over the Pacific Ocean, combined with sea surface temperatures, determines whether Australia experiences El Niño or La Niña events.

In our new research, published today in the journal Nature, we asked whether the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere had affected the Walker Circulation. We found the overall strength hasn’t changed yet, but instead, the year-to-year behaviour is different.

Switching between El Niño and La Niña conditions has slowed over the industrial era. That means in the future we could see more of these multi-year La Niña or El Niño type events. So we need to prepare for greater risks of floods, drought and fire.

Read more:
La Niña is finishing an extremely unusual three-year cycle – here’s how it affected weather around the world

An ocean-atmosphere climate system

La Niña and its counterpart El Niño are the two extremes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation — a coupled ocean-atmosphere system that plays a major role in global climate variability.

The Walker Circulation is the atmospheric part. Air rises over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (a region of the ocean that stays warm year-round) and flows eastward high in the atmosphere. Then it sinks back to the surface over the eastern equatorial Pacific and flows back to the west along the surface, forming the Pacific trade winds. In short, it loops in an east-west direction across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Read more:
Curious Kids: where does wind actually come from?

But the Walker Circulation doesn’t always flow with the same intensity — sometimes it is stronger, and sometimes it is weaker.

Periods of stronger or weaker Walker Circulation have major impacts on Australian climate. A stronger Walker Circulation means stronger-than-average trade winds, and generally La Niña-like ocean conditions. This often brings wetter weather to eastern Australia.

On the flip side, a weaker Walker Circulation brings weaker-than-average trade winds, and El Niño-like ocean conditions. A weak Walker Circulation is often associated with drier weather across northern and eastern Australia.

So far, the Walker Circulation is what’s missing from the current El Niño event developing in the Pacific Ocean: it has not weakened enough for the Bureau to declare an El Niño event.

What’s happening to the Walker Circulation?

The Walker Circulation is a major influence on weather and climate in many places around the world, not just Australia.

A stronger-than-usual Walker Circulation even contributed to the “global warming slowdown” of the early 2000s. This is because a stronger Walker Circulation is often associated with slightly cooler global temperature.

So we need to know how it is going to behave in the future. To do that, we first need to know if — and if so, how — the Walker Circulation’s behaviour has changed due to human activities. And to do that, we need information about how the Walker Circulation behaved before humans started affecting the climate system.

We reconstructed Walker Circulation variability over the past millennium. We used global data from ice cores, trees, lakes, corals and caves to build a picture of how the Walker Circulation changed over time.

We found that on average, there has not yet been any industrial-era change in the strength of the Walker Circulation. This was surprising, because computer simulations of Earth’s climate generally suggest global warming will ultimately cause a weaker, or more El Niño-like, Walker Circulation.

There are a few possible reasons for this. One is that a buildup of fine particles in the air, such as smoke or industrial pollution, may be driving a stronger Walker Circulation, hence “cancelling out” the weakening effect of global warming.

Another is there may have been some weakening, but so far it is too small to be detectable among the Walker Circulation’s large year-to-year variability.

Read more:
Smoke from the Black Summer fires could have made the triple La Niña more likely

Our research also does not rule out the possibility that with future increases in global temperature, the Walker Circulation will indeed weaken, in a trend to more El Niño-like conditions. In that scenario, Australians might expect decreased rainfall in the north and east, as well as warmer temperatures across the continent, and less snow in the Australian Alps.

Even though the average strength of the Walker Circulation has not changed in the industrial era, there has been a subtle change in the length of time taken for the Walker Circulation to switch from one state to the next.

The Walker Circulation now switches more slowly between weak and strong phases, and we suspect this is influenced by climate change. This has potentially important implications for climate extremes, as El Niño and La Niña conditions could hang around for longer.

Our research also found that major explosive volcanic eruptions — at least as big as the 1982 eruption of El Chichón — can trigger an El Niño-like weakening of the Walker Circulation one to three years after the eruption. Unfortunately, volcanic eruptions remain extremely difficult to predict, so this doesn’t help our long-term climate predictions.

What is the message for Australians?

In terms of predicting how the Walker Circulation will change in the future, we can now focus attention on the particular climate models whose outputs most closely match what we discovered from our reconstruction.

That is, models that show no industrial-era weakening trend. This approach might help us get more accurate predictions of future Walker Circulation change.

The other thing we can do is to be prepared for more consecutive-year El Niño and La Niña events, and the sustained wet or dry spells they could bring to Australia.

And if there is a major volcanic eruption? Be prepared for a couple of years of weak Walker Circulation, and the warm, dry weather that can bring.

Read more:
New study helps solve a 30-year-old puzzle: how is climate change affecting El Niño and La Niña?

Georgina Falster receives funding from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. This research was funded by the US National Science Foundation.

– ref. Greenhouse gases are changing air flow over the Pacific Ocean – raising Australia’s risks of extreme weather – https://theconversation.com/greenhouse-gases-are-changing-air-flow-over-the-pacific-ocean-raising-australias-risks-of-extreme-weather-211029

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Isaac Gross, Lecturer in Economics, Monash University

It is a universally acknowledged truth that interest-rate rises are always a bad thing for the average Australian household.

They are just a punitive form of economic medicine we have to take from time to time, on the say-so of the Reserve Bank of Australia – but nobody enjoys it. Except perhaps the sadistic central bankers.

And this is probably true for anybody with a mortgage. That might describe the majority of economic commentators, but it is not true of all Australians.

While higher interest rates are bad for borrowers, and therefore good for savers, there are in fact many ways higher interest rates directly help (a subset of) Australian households.

Higher cash rates means lower house prices

One of the most direct effects of the higher cash rate is its impact on households’ ability to finance the purchase of a new house. Whether you are a first home buyer, a repeat buyer or an investor, a higher interest rate will limit what you can borrow and therefore the amount you’re able to pay.

Accordingly, a higher cash rate leads to lower house prices. This is great news for young Australians yet to buy their first home.

Buying into the property market is especially hard in Australia these days, and lower housing prices is great news for these households who have up until now been locked out of owning a home.

A higher cash rate means they will pay more on their mortgage if they are successful. But the Reserve Bank’s calculations suggest that in the medium term home buyers are better off when higher rates lower house prices.

The higher the rate, the healthier the returns

Whether you are saving to buy a car, a house or just for retirement, a higher interest rate will mean you get more bang for your buck on your deposits at the bank. For anyone who has yet to take on a mortgage or has already paid theirs off, higher interest rates mean they will be better placed to build their savings.

Analysis of HILDA data by the Reserve Bank suggests these net-savers are less likely to own a home, less likely to be employed, and consume far less than their debt-ridden cousins.

While there is a lot of heterogeneity in the broad category of “savers”, we should welcome the extra income to young households who haven’t yet been fortunate enough to be burdened with a million-dollar mortgage.

While a lot of Australians invest their savings in the stock market either directly or indirectly via their superannuation funds, many retirees transfer their assets to less volatile forms of savings such as term deposits or cash savings. A higher interest rate greatly increases the return that retirees and pensioners receive on both these sources of savings.

Rate rises haven’t received nearly as much press as the increase in mortgage rates, but interest rates for savings accounts have also risen over the past year.

Higher interest rates are great for travellers

Whenever the Reserve Bank increases the cash rate, the dollar is directly affected. A higher interest rate means a stronger Australian dollar. This is a boon to anybody who wants to travel overseas.

The stronger Australian dollar means that whether you are buying a pint of beer in London or a piña colada in Puerto Rico, it will be cheaper for you to spend your money overseas, and your holidays will be more affordable as a result.

The combination of a strong Australian dollar and a weak pound means there has never been a better time to visit the United Kingdom and enjoy some warm beer and mushy peas!

High interest rates are great for anyone who drives

Just as a stronger Australian dollar makes overseas travel cheaper, it also keeps the price of imports down. And Australia imports a lot of important goods.

Our biggest single import is cars. Australia imports all its cars, ever since the demise of the local car manufacturing industry. The second biggest import is refined petroleum. Given that cars, and the fuel that runs them, is a non-discretionary good for most households, keeping their price low is important for most consumers.

Higher interest rates help do exactly that, keeping our dollar strong and the price of new cars and petrol down.

But what about my mortgage?

This is not to say that the conventional wisdom – that higher rates are a net negative for the modal household – is wrong. Obviously anyone who is paying off a mortgage debt of hundreds of thousands of dollars is going to be financially disadvantaged by higher interest rates.

Read more:
How the Bank of England’s interest rate hikes are filtering through to your finances

But it’s important to keep in mind that not all Australian households are net-borrowers, and that there is nothing inherently evil about higher interest rates.

There are many reasons why a higher interest rate is a good outcome, far better than a world in which rates are trapped at 0 per cent forever. High interest rates may not be here forever. We should enjoy them while we can.

Isaac Gross does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. High interest rates are not bad news for everyone. Just ask savers, importers and Australians heading overseas – https://theconversation.com/high-interest-rates-are-not-bad-news-for-everyone-just-ask-savers-importers-and-australians-heading-overseas-210466

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jillian Huntley, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Social and Cultural Research, Griffith University

The islands of South-East Asia record a long and dynamic human history of technological innovation, migration and conflict.

The region’s rock art stretches back more than 45,000 years. It’s a unique source of information about this complex human past.

But rock art doesn’t just record ancient history. Researchers have identified artwork documenting the more recent past, including Indigenous resistance to colonial occupation, violent frontier conflicts and enslavement.

Our new study, published today, shines a new light on rock art of Sarawak (a state of Malaysia on the island of Borneo). The rock art we have dated records resistance to colonial forces in Malaysian Borneo during the 17th to 19th centuries.

Read more:
40,000 year old rock art found in Indonesia

Rock art in Borneo

Black drawings of people, animals, ships and abstract geometric designs dominate caves throughout Borneo’s north-west.

Gua Sireh is one of the region’s best-known rock art sites, attracting hundreds of visitors each year. The cave is about 55 kilometres south-east of Sarawak’s capital, Kuching.

Hundreds of charcoal drawings cover the walls of Gua Sireh. People are shown wearing headdresses. Some are armed with shields, knives and spears in scenes of hunting, butchering, fishing, fighting and dancing.

Excavations in the 1950s, 1970s and 1980s revealed people intermittently used Gua Sireh for around 20,000 years, before abandoning the site around 1900. The Indigenous people who used the cave were the ancestors of the contemporary Bidayuh (inland tribal people), also known as “Land Dayaks” in early ethnographic accounts.

Malayo-Polynesian Austronesian speakers (whose language originates in Taiwan) spread across Island South-East Asia and the Pacific starting around 3,000 to 4,000 years ago. Austronesian influence at Gua Sireh dates from about 4,000 years ago, indicated by the first appearance of charred rice and pottery.

The presence of Austronesian communities at Gua Sireh is a part of broader evidence for dynamic human migrations in the region over thousands of years.

Further cultural interactions at the site occurred around 2,000 years ago, with grave goods, such as glass beads, showing contact between the Bidayuh and coastal traders.

Read more:
Linguistics locates the beginnings of the Austronesian expansion – with Indigenous seafaring people in eastern Taiwan

In the 17th to 19th centuries, there was a period of increasing conflict when Malay elites controlling the region exacted heavy tolls on local Indigenous tribes. Using radiocarbon dating, we have been able to date two large, elaborate human figures to this period. They were drawn between 1670 and 1830.

We interpreted our results informed by the oral histories of the Bidayuh, who have continuing custodial responsibilities over the site today.

Our findings sit alongside other recent archaeological work that has highlighted Indigenous resistance to colonial occupation.

Carbon dating the images

In addition to radiocarbon dating and oral history, another strand of evidence we used to interpret these new dates were the images themselves.

One figure we looked at in our carbon dating brandishes two short-bladed Parang Ilang, the principal weapon used during the warfare that marked the first decades of white rule in Borneo. We have dated this figure as drawn between 1670 and 1710 when Malay elites dominated the Bidayuh.

In another image we studied, large human figures are shown holding distinctive weapons such as a Pandat – the war sword of Land Dayaks, including the Bidayuh. Pandat were used exclusively for fighting and protection, never in agriculture or handicrafts, suggesting the drawing relates to conflict.

We have dated this figure to between 1790 and 1830. This was a period of increasing conflict between the Bidayuh and Iban (Indigenous peoples from the coast, also known as Sea Dayaks) and Brunei Malay rulers.

During this period many Indigenous Sarawakians moved into the upland interior, including the Gua Sireh area, to escape persecution.

Brunei rulers were known to not only bully and enslave people but also allowed expeditions of Ibans to attack the Bidayuh. The Ibans were said to keep the heads of the people they slaughtered and handed over the “slaves” they captured to the Brunei authority.

An example from Bidayuh oral histories of the cave being used as a refuge during territorial violence comes from 1855. The British diplomat Spenser St John was shown a skeleton in Gua Sireh. A local tribesman said he had shot this man years earlier, before the rule of James Brooke, which began in 1839.

The shooting resulted from a skirmish with a very harsh Malay chief who had demanded the Bidayuh hand over their children. They refused and retreated to Gua Sireh where they held off a force of 300 armed men.

Suffering some losses (two Bidayuh were shot, and seven were taken prisoner and enslaved), most of the tribe escaped through the far side of the cave complex, saving their children.

Oral histories combined with the figures holding weapons of warfare contextualise the ages we now have for the rock art.

The direct dates we have produced demonstrate distinct periods of drawing can be identified.

The ubiquity of black drawings across the region and their probable links to the migrations of Austronesian and Malay peoples opens exciting possibilities for further understanding the complexities of rock art production in Island South-East Asia.

This article was coauthored with Mohammad Sherman Sauffi William from the Sarawak Museum Department.

Jillian Huntley receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Scientific Foundation of America.

Andrea Jalandoni receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Emilie Dotte-Sarout receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia.

Paul S.C.Taçon receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Fiona Petchey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. This cave on Borneo has been used for 20,000 years – and we’ve now dated rock art showing colonial resistance 400 years ago – https://theconversation.com/this-cave-on-borneo-has-been-used-for-20-000-years-and-weve-now-dated-rock-art-showing-colonial-resistance-400-years-ago-211273

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

Global warning threatens to have major impacts on Australia’s labour productivity, agriculture and tourism over coming decades, according to the Intergenerational Report, which makes climate change a major focus of its projections for the early 2060s.

Climate change and the international energy transition will also have extensive implications for Australia’s resources sector, with demand for thermal coal falling dramatically and that for critical minerals increasing substantially.

The report, which projects four decade ahead, stresses the need for effective mitigation of further temperature increases and targeted investment in adaptation.

Under the Paris Agreement, countries have committed to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C.

The report, to be released by Treasurer Jim Chalmers on Thursday, says over the next 40 years, under a scenario where global temperatures increase by up to 3°C by 2100, Australia’s average temperature is projected to rise by 1.7°C. But there would be regional variations.

The average temperature in parts of central and northern Western Australia is projected to rise by 1.8°C, but only a 1.3°C increase is projected for Tasmania.

“This suggests Western Australia could be more directly affected by the labour productivity impacts of higher temperatures than some other Australian states and territories,” the report says.

“Similarly, some regional and remote communities, including Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, are expected to be particularly exposed to higher temperatures.”

Read more:
The intergenerational report will set the scene for 2063 – but what is it?

If global temperatures were to increase by up to 3°C or more than 4°C, without changes to present ways of working, Australia’s aggregate labour productivity levels could decrease by 0.2%-0.8% by 2063.

This would reduce economic output over this period by $135 billion – $423 billion (in today’s dollars), through the direct impacts of higher temperatures on labour productivity.

In contrast, if global action limits temperature increases to 2°C, Australia could benefit from up to an extra $155 billion in GDP, compared with a scenario where temperatures increase up to 3°C. This is equal to 26 to 41 million more hours of work in 2063, the report says.

It notes that investing in measures to limit worker heat exposure, such as tree planting or altering building designs to enhance passive cooling, can also mitigate to some extent the impacts on labour productivity of higher temperatures.

If global action limits temperature increases to 1.5°C, reduced demand for thermal coal could cut Australia’s exports of it to less than 1% of present levels by 2063.

But if temperature increases are limited to 2°C this century, Australia’s thermal coal exports are estimated to fall by 50% by 2063.

The fall in international demand for Australia’s thermal coal would be slower if global action fails to deliver on the Paris Agreement, resulting in warming above 2°C this century, the report says.

Read more:
Intergenerational report to warn of slow growth, pressure on revenue

Without adaptation measures Australian crop yields could be up to 4% lower by 2063 if global action fails to keep temperature rises below 3°C this century. These reductions could be largely avoided if global temperatures rise less than 2°C.

The report says some impacts on crop yields could be mitigated by measures such as changing the crops planted in particular areas and improving water efficiency.

It says other countries in our region might be even more affected than Australia by climate change, which could result in more demand for Australian agricultural exports.

Read more:
The intergenerational report will try to scare us about ageing. It’s an old fear, and wrong

Australia’s services sector will also be affected by rising temperatures, with tourists adjusting where and when they decide to travel.

“Australia has a large number of natural attractions at risk of environmental degradation which may attract fewer tourists in a world of higher global temperatures. At least 50% of Australia’s sandy coastline, a major drawcard for tourism, is under threat of erosion due to climate change.

“Many of Australia’s top attractions are also in regions likely to be increasingly susceptible to natural disasters, risking travel disruption and reputational harm. For example, in the immediate aftermath of the 2019–20 bushfires, an estimated 80,000 tourists cancelled or postponed activities,” the report says.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Intergenerational report highlights the threat of a hotter, less productive Australia due to global warming – https://theconversation.com/intergenerational-report-highlights-the-threat-of-a-hotter-less-productive-australia-due-to-global-warming-212121

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Lucy, Deputy Science + Technology Editor

Hundreds of scientists from across the country have gathered at the Australian Museum in Sydney for the presentation of the Eureka Prizes. Awarded annually since 1990, the prizes recognise outstanding contributions to science and the public understanding of science.

Some highlights from this year’s ceremony were awards for one of the world’s biggest wildlife monitoring programs, a rescue project for endangered orchids, and research on how our bodies fight COVID-19. Also honoured were software for sustainable energy and mining, a method for turning waste carbon dioxide into useful molecular building blocks, and an open-source tool for linking DNA sequences to the evolution of life.

In a statement, Australian Museum chief executive Kim McKay said:

As the world faces unprecedented challenges such as accelerating climate change, Australian scientists continue to lead, innovate and inspire. Scientific knowledge and innovation is key to progress. Researchers and scientists help us understand how our universe works and how we can protect it.

Waterbirds, orchids and immune responses

The prize for applied environmental research went to the Waterbirds Aerial Survey Team from UNSW and the New South Wales Department of Planning and Environment. This team has carried out one of the world’s largest and longest-running wildlife surveys. Their work has had a significant influence on the Murray-Darling Basin Plan as well as the management of wetlands and national parks.

Noushka Reiter from the Royal Botanic Gardens Victoria was awarded the prize for excellence in botanical science. Reiter leads an orchid conservation program that has propagated more than 20,000 plants from 80 endangered species. Fourteen of these species have been reintroduced to the wild, with populations increasing by as much as 260%.

A team of three researchers from the University of Melbourne and the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity took home the prize for infectious diseases research. The Corona Queens – Katherine Kedzierska, Louise Rowntree and Oanh Nguyen – were recognised for their work on the immune response to COVID-19 in high-risk groups, such as children, older people and cancer patients.

Getting to net zero, transforming CO₂ and mapping evolution

The prize for innovative research in sustainability went to the Economic Fairways Mapper Team from Monash University and Geoscience Australia. They have built a set of open-source tools to identify the most sustainable locations for renewable energy and mining projects, to aid the transition to net zero emissions.

Read more:
Picture this: green hydrogen plants next to green steelworks to boost efficiency and kickstart both industries

Fengwang Li at the University of Sydney received the prize for outstanding early career researcher. He has developed a more efficient process to make ethylene – a basic chemical component of plastic – from waste carbon dioxide captured from industrial processes.

The prize for excellence in research software was awarded to Minh Bui and Robert Lanfear from the Australian National University. They created open-source software that analyses DNA data to map evolution. It has been used by life scientists around the world to everything from ancient life to the development of the SARS-COV-2 virus.

Research, leadership and communication

There were plenty of other prizes given out as well. A full list is below.

• Emerging leader in science: Stephanie Partridge from the University of Sydney

• Leadership in science and innovation: Michael Kassiou, University of Sydney

• Outstanding mentor of young researchers: Renae Ryan, University of Sydney

• Excellence in interdisciplinary scientific research: Cystic Fibrosis Lung Health Imaging, University of Adelaide; Women’s and Children’s Hospital, Adelaide; 4D Medical Pty Ltd; and Monash University

• Innovative use of technology: IMAGENDO, University of Adelaide; and OMNI Ultrasound and Gynaecological Care

• Outstanding science in safeguarding Australia: MetaSteerers Team, University of Technology Sydney; Defence Science and Technology Group; and Macquarie University

• Scientific research: Tim Thomas and Anne Voss, WEHI

• Innovation in citizen science: 1 Million Turtles, Western Sydney University; La Trobe University and University of New England

• Promoting understanding of science: Toby Walsh, UNSW

Read more:
Everyone’s having a field day with ChatGPT – but nobody knows how it actually works

• Science journalism: Jo Chandler, Griffith Review

• STEM inclusion: That’s What I Call Science

• School science – primary: Anna P, PLC Sydney

• School science – secondary: Darcy B, Ashfield Boys High School

• The Australian Museum Research Institute Medal: Jodi Rowely.

– ref. Birdwatching, immune responses and evolutionary mapping honoured at 2023 Eureka Prizes – https://theconversation.com/birdwatching-immune-responses-and-evolutionary-mapping-honoured-at-2023-eureka-prizes-212102

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland

The “problem” of Australia’s ageing population has been a concern for decades. Indeed, I have aged along with it.

The first official report on the subject was produced in a report of the National Population Council entitled Greying Australia: Future Impacts of Population Ageing, which came out as I entered my 30s, sporting a full head of dark hair.

The latest Intergenerational Report, to be released on Thursday, comes weeks after – with thinner and greyer hair – I celebrated reaching the official pension age of 67 (raised from 60 for women and 65 for men).

While ageing brings with it some regrets it is, as French actor Maurice Chevalier is supposed to have said: not so bad, when you consider the alternative.

But while individual Australians continue to age at a rate of one year per year, discussion of population ageing seems stuck in a 1980s timewarp.

The 2021 Intergenerational Report contained an extensive, and gloomy, discussion of the change in what it called the “old-age dependency ratio” – which it defined as the ratio of Australians of “working age”, which it said was 15–64, to those over 65.

But it seems to have escaped the notice of the authors in the treasury that the school leaving age has climbed to 17, and the pension age has climbed to 67.

This reflects a much bigger problem. Projections of “population ageing” usually produce a future society that is exactly like the one we have at present except that there are more old people and fewer young people.

In particular, it is usually assumed people of every given age will have much the same characteristics and live in much the same way as do at present.

The idea is wrong for at least three reasons.

First, lifetime patterns of work have changed radically, and will continue to do so.

In practice, most young people are dependent on their parents into their early 20s, sometimes beyond.

Some are dependent on their 65+ grandparents, meaning they are supported by rather than supporting the age group the treasury regards as dependants.

Older Australians are twice as likely to be employed as before. 40 years ago, in 1983, only 5% of Australians aged 65 and over were employed. Now it’s 11.4%.

With an increased pension age and the end of defined-benefit superannuation (which rewarded early retirement), we can expect that trend to continue.

While the 2021 Intergenerational Report noted these trends, it seemed to ignore them in arriving at its conclusions.

Longer lives are good things

There’s a second reason why it isn’t right to assume that older people in the future will be much like older Australians have always been (except more numerous).

Those older Australians will be living longer precisely because they are healthier.

Today, the typical 65-year-old can expect to live 21 more years. In the 1950s it was only 14 more years. Medical progress, along with improvements in work safety and lifestyle changes, have made it possible to remain healthy for longer (though COVID might undermine this).

À lire aussi :
The intergenerational report will set the scene for 2063 – but what is it?

Drug treatments are now available for chronic conditions like arthritis that used to go untreated. Even dementia, where there has been little if any advance in treatment, appears to be declining in its age-specific prevalence.

This decline is a byproduct of improved cardiovascular health and (more speculatively) increased education levels among the middle-aged and old.

As before, the really big costs in the medical system are incurred in the last year of life. By definition, the last year comes only once in each lifetime, meaning more years than before are healthy.

Working different, working longer

And there’s a third reason why it’s wrong to assume that older people in the future will be much like those today: technological progress has largely eliminated many unskilled jobs.

Two things flow from this. One is that young people need to spend more time than before in education in order to acquire skills.

The other is that the decline in unskilled jobs involving hard physical labour makes it easier for people to work much longer should they want to.

Yet talk about population ageing nearly always presents it as a near-catastrophe. Treasurer Joe Hockey didn’t help, introducing the 2015 Intergenerational Report by saying Australians would “fall off their chairs” when they read it.

À lire aussi :
Intergenerational reports ought to spark action, as well as scare us

As it happens, we are facing a catastrophe, and it has scarcely been mentioned in the five intergenerational reports to date. It’s catastrophic climate change.

We are living in a world of near-continuous wildfire emergencies and other climatic disasters. Even with determined action, things are only likely to get worse for the next generation.

In these circumstances, worrying about the need to raise taxes by a few percentage points over 40 years to pay for things like more aged care shows an astonishing lack of concern about the future.

John Quiggin is 67 and hopes to continue aging for some decades to come

– ref. The intergenerational report will try to scare us about ageing. It’s an old fear, and wrong – https://theconversation.com/the-intergenerational-report-will-try-to-scare-us-about-ageing-its-an-old-fear-and-wrong-212003

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation’s politics team.

In this podcast Michelle and politics + society editor Amanda Dunn discuss the news that the Prime Minister next Wednesday will reveal the date for the Voice referendum. They also canvass the Intergenerational Report, which gazes into the 2060s, as well as Labor’s national conference, that endorsed AUKUS. During the conference Anthony Albanese emphasised the importance of the party staying in office to bed down a long term agenda, with the message to the rank and file not to rock the boat.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Word from The Hill: Date for Voice referendum to be announced on Wednesday – https://theconversation.com/word-from-the-hill-date-for-voice-referendum-to-be-announced-on-wednesday-212113

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adam Simpson, Senior Lecturer, International Studies, University of South Australia

More than three months after Thailand’s national elections – and many anti-democratic manoeuvres in parliament – the country finally has a new prime minister, Srettha Thavisin. But, given the chaotic nature of Thai politics, this was perhaps not even the biggest news of the week.

Hours before the partially military-appointed Thai parliament elected Srettha to the post, one of the country’s most prominent political figures, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, returned from his self-imposed exile of more than 15 years and surrendered to authorities over longstanding corruption charges.

There are now many questions about what this blockbuster day for Thai politics means for the country’s future – and what it means for democracy.

Read more:
Explainer: why was the winner of Thailand’s election blocked from becoming prime minister?

Who is Thaksin and why is he important?

Thaksin became prime minister in 2001 after a thumping election win and remained the country’s most popular politician, even through his long years of exile.

Pheu Thai is the latest incarnation of various Thaksin-aligned parties, which have won the most seats in parliament in every competitive national election since 2001 – until this year when it finished second to the reformist Move Forward party.

Thaksin’s extraordinary popularity as prime minister challenged the primacy of the monarchy and the military in the country. This led to a decade of protests and conflict between, essentially, the so-called “red shirts” in Thai society who supported Thaksin and the “yellow shirts” who supported the monarchy and military elites.

The conflict resulted in two military coups, in 2006 and 2014. The first removed Thaksin from power, prompting him to go into exile to avoid prosecution. The second, led by General Prayuth Chan-ocha, deposed Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, as prime minister. (She was later convicted of criminal negligence in Thailand’s pliant courts and sentenced in absentia to five years in prison. She remains in exile.)

Prayuth was then elected prime minister by the parliament in 2019 under the country’s anti-democratic, military-authored constitution following a compromised national poll. He remained in power until this week.

After Thaksin touched down at Bangkok’s airport this week, he was taken to the Supreme Court for a hearing and transferred to prison. The Supreme Court announced he would serve eight years.

How did Srettha become PM?

Having consistently opposed the military, Pheu Thai made a commitment before this year’s election not to form a coalition with the military-aligned parties.

Following the election, Pheu Thai initially supported Move Forward in its attempt to form a government, but after its leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, was blocked by the military-appointed Senate from becoming prime minister, Pheu Thai changed its tune.

The party nominated its own prime ministerial candidate, Srettha, a wealthy property developer and political newcomer, and formed a new coalition with two military-aligned parties, the Palang Pracharath Party and Ruam Thai Sang Chart Party, and a range of others. This gave Srettha the support he needed from the military-appointed senators to win the prime ministership.

Both Move Forward and Pheu Thai had been vocal critics of the former military-led government.

However, the two parties had different stances on one main issue: Thailand’s strict lèse-majesté law, which punishes anyone who criticises the king or other senior royals with up to 15 years in prison. Move Forward pledged to reform it, while Pheu Thai committed not to change it.

This difference was likely a key determinant in Move Forward’s electoral victory, but also the reason why military and conservative parties have now been willing to support Pheu Thai.

The only significant party to vote against Srettha in the parliament election was Move Forward and its 149 MPs.

The secretary-general of Move Forward said the party opposed the new coalition because it refused to be complicit in returning military-aligned parties to government, even one led by Pheu Thai. He argued this would perpetuate the notion that Thailand’s “ultimate power” belonged in the unelected Senate rather than in the hands of the people.

What happens now?

It is no coincidence that Thaksin arrived on the day his party returned to power, and the foundations are already being set for his early release.

After a medical check-up, the Department of Corrections said Thaksin had five medical conditions, including an ischemic heart muscle, chronic pulmonary inflammation, high blood pressure, degenerated spine and abnormal posture.

There are numerous routes for Thaksin to be released from prison, but the most obvious one, due to his age of 74 and these reported health conditions, is on medical grounds.

Despite Thaksin’s protestations over almost two decades that he didn’t want to return to politics, there is little doubt he will be the key figure operating behind the scenes in the Pheu Thai party, and therefore the government.

As such, we may see a tussle between Srettha and Thaksin for influence in the party. Srettha may very well attempt to project the image that he is his own man and not beholden to anyone.

Read more:
Thailand is on the verge of a new democratic spring, but significant obstacles could stand in the way

Despite being years away, the next election could also be fraught for Pheu Thai. The party has not only betrayed Move Forward voters with its actions this week, it has also betrayed its own supporters who believed its commitment to keep the military-aligned parties out of power.

If Pheu Thai can hold the unwieldy 11-party coalition together for the next four years, however, it has plenty of time to convince voters to stick with it at the next election. It may also deliver enough sweeteners to remain in power.

Nevertheless, Move Forward’s supporters are angry. In a potentially ominous sign for Pheu Thai, within hours of Srettha’s election to prime minister, #NotMyPM was trending on Thailand’s social media.

Once again, the anti-democratic forces within Thailand’s elites have stifled the will of the people and we may be entering another volatile era in Thai politics.

Adam Simpson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. In one chaotic day, Thailand sees one PM elected, one ex-PM sent to jail. Where does the country go from here? – https://theconversation.com/in-one-chaotic-day-thailand-sees-one-pm-elected-one-ex-pm-sent-to-jail-where-does-the-country-go-from-here-212092

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jessica Holloway, Senior Research DECRA Fellow, Institute for Learning Sciences and Teacher Education, Australian Catholic University

This year’s national NAPLAN results are out, with the news only two-thirds of Australian students met minimum achievement levels in literacy and numeracy.

The headlines are everything we would expect them to be – full of panic. Most reporting is focused on the number of Australian students not meeting the new proficiency standards, with talk of “failure” and “debacles”.

The numbers certainly don’t look great, but should we be worried?

Changes to NAPLAN

NAPLAN was introduced in 2008 and is an annual test of all Australian students in years 3, 5, 7 and 9. It aims to see whether students are developing basic skills in literacy and numeracy.

On Wednesday, we saw the overall results released. Individual student reports will go home during term 3, via schools.

Earlier this year, NAPLAN underwent significant changes. These changes included a shift to online testing, moving the testing dates forward and new proficiency standards.

At the time of the announcement, many education experts warned that 2023 results might be lower than usual.

Many pointed to the shift from ten proficiency bands to four achievement levels (“needs additional support,” “developing,” “strong” and “exceeding”). This likely explains a lot of what we’re seeing today. It also means we cannot compare this year’s results with previous results.

The shift to online testing

The shift to online testing may also have had a significant impact on results.

Disparities in access to technology can impact how students perform on the test. Students who regularly use computers and the internet at home are likely to feel more confident while taking an online test. Students without might struggle with basic computer skills. This can lead to more mistakes that have nothing to do with numeracy and literacy.

Changes to the testing window from May to March also means schools had less time to prepare students for NAPLAN in 2023. Theoretically, this might have a positive impact on education in the long run. Less time can be devoted to “test prep” or “teaching to the test”. This can free up time to spend on more authentic learning activities. But for this year, the change caught schools off guard, which may have impacted student performance.

We also shouldn’t forget about the impact of COVID. It is hard to estimate all the ways students have been affected by the pandemic. We can assume these effects will be felt for years to come, and we should continue to interpret NAPLAN results with this in mind.

Disparities and funding

What we should be worried about is the clear disparity between Australia’s most vulnerable students and their peers.

Like every other year, NAPLAN results show significant gaps between Indigenous students and their peers. About one-third of Indigenous students “need additional support”, compared to one-tenth of students overall. Some 50% of students in the most remote regions of Australia also “need additional support”.

This is not a new concern, and one experts have been worried about for many years. While politicians often blame schools and teachers, the real problem is with equitable funding. Public schools are responsible for teaching most students who require additional support, yet they are not adequately funded to do so.

Read more:
Fewer than 1 in 5 students who are behind in Year 3 catch up and stay caught up

Proceed with caution

We must interpret this year’s NAPLAN results with caution. Our instinct might be to panic, but the reality is significant changes to the test have led to these results. It might take a few years before we can make any meaningful sense about overall progress and change.

We can also look to some experts’ optimism about the changes. They say the new achievement levels and earlier testing dates will eventually lead to simpler and more useful results. They hope this means better communication between schools and families, as well as more time for schools to act.

Importantly, we should not interpret this year’s results as an indictment on schools. Rather, we should force governments to fully fund schools to the level they have said is necessary. This year’s results leave no question about the urgency of equitable funding.

Read more:
The type of school does matter when it comes to a child’s academic performance

Jessica Holloway receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. The latest NAPLAN results don’t look great but we need to go beyond the headline figures – https://theconversation.com/the-latest-naplan-results-dont-look-great-but-we-need-to-go-beyond-the-headline-figures-212101

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Liz Giuffre, Senior Lecturer in Communication, University of Technology Sydney

International music press has reported this week that Queen’s song Fat Bottomed Girls has not been included in a greatest hits compilation aimed at children.

While there was no formal justification given, presumably lyrics “fat bottomed” and “big fat fatty” were the problem, and even the very singable hook, “Oh, won’t you take me home tonight”.

Predictably, The Daily Mail and similar outlets used it as an excuse to bemoan cancel culture, political correctness and the like, with the headline “We Will Woke You” quickly out of the gate.

Joke headlines aside, should children be exposed to music with questionable themes or lyrics?

The answer is not a hard yes or no. My colleague Shelley Brunt and I studied a range of factors and practices relating to Popular Music and Parenting, and we found that more important than individual songs or concerts is the support children are given when they’re listening or participating.

A parent or caregiver should always be part of a conversation and some sort of relationship when engaging with music. This can involve practical things like making sure developing ears aren’t exposed to too harsh a volume or that they know how to find a trusted adult at a concert. But this also extends to the basics of media and cultural literacy, like what images and stories are being presented in popular music, and how we want to consider those in our own lives.

In the same way you’d hope someone would talk to a child to remind them that superheroes can’t actually fly (and subsequently if you’re dressed as a superhero for book week don’t go leaping off tall buildings!), popular music of all types needs to be contextualised.

Should we censor, or change, the way popular music is presented for kids?

There is certainly a long tradition of amending popular songs to make them child or family friendly. On television, this has happened as long as the medium has been around, with some lyrics and dance moves toned down to appease concerned parents and tastemakers about the potential evils of pop.

Famously, Elvis Presley serenaded a literal Hound Dog rather than the metaphorical villain of his 1950s hit.

In Australia, the local TV version of Bandstand from the 1970s featured local artists singing clean versions of international pop songs while wearing modest hems and neck lines.

This continued with actual children also re-performing pop music, from the Mickey Mouse Club versions of songs from the US to our own wonderful star factory that was Young Talent Time. The tradition continues today with family-friendly, popular music-based programming like The Voice and The Masked Singer.

In America, there is a huge industry for children’s versions of pop music via the Kidz Bop franchise. Its formula of child performers covering current hits has been wildly successful for over 20 years. Some perhaps obvious substitutions are made – the cover of Lizzo’s About Damn Time is now “About That Time”, with the opening lyric changed to “Kidz Bop O’Clock” rather than “Bad Bitch O’Clock”.

In some other Kidz Bop songs, though, references to violence and drugs have been left in.

Other longer-standing children’s franchises have also made amendments to pop lyrics, but arguably with a bit more creativity and fun. The Muppets’ cover of Bohemian Rhapsody, replacing the original murder with a rant from Animal, is divine.

Should music ever just be for kids?

Context is key when deciding what is for children or for adults. And hopefully we’re always listening (in some way) together.

Caregivers should be able to make an informed decision about whether a particular song is appropriate for their child, however they consider that in terms of context. By the same token, the resurgence of millennial love for The Wiggles has shown us no one should be considered “too old” for Hot Potato or Fruit Salad.

When considering potential harm for younger listeners, factors like volume and tone can be more dangerous than whether or not there’s a questionable lyric. Let’s remember, too, lots of “nursery rhymes” aimed at children are also quite violent if you listen to their words closely.

Read more:
It’s 30 years since Freddie Mercury died. His music is still the soundtrack of our lives

French writer Jacques José Attali famously argued the relationship between music, noise and harm is politics and power – even your most beloved song can become just noise if played too loudly or somewhere where you shouldn’t be hearing it.

As an academic, parent and fat-bottomed girl myself, my advice is to keep having conversations with the children in your life about what you and they are listening to. Just like reminding your little superhero to only pretend to fly rather than to actually jump – when we sing along to Queen, we remember that using a word like “fat” and even “girl” isn’t how everyone likes to be treated these days.

Liz Giuffre does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Censorship or sensible: is it bad to listen to Fat Bottomed Girls with your kids? – https://theconversation.com/censorship-or-sensible-is-it-bad-to-listen-to-fat-bottomed-girls-with-your-kids-212093

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Gair, Adjunct Associate Professor, College of Arts, Society & Education, James Cook University

Youth crime in Australia has been the subject of sensationalist media coverage and growing community concern, particularly in north Queensland.

Read more:
Why the media aren’t helping to solve the ‘youth crime crisis’ they’re reporting

We wanted to understand the experiences of young people in north Queensland who were involved in the juvenile justice system, or at imminent risk of becoming so, through their own eyes, and use the findings to improve local services.

We worked with a partner organisation that runs an after-hours diversionary service for young people 10-17 years old. This service supports those who are engaged in crime or are at high risk of doing so, by engaging them in activities such as educational sessions, sports, arts and craft, and outings to the park.

We found young people using this service often felt under heavy surveillance in public spaces, felt excluded from the community, and felt physically, emotionally and culturally unsafe on public streets.

These young people wanted to feel safe and included in the community, but often felt the opposite.

Diversion is better than harsher punishment

Evidence in countries including Australia, New Zealand and Canada has linked youth crime to troubled home environments, trauma, poverty, violence and disrupted education. But such young offenders also often experience marginalisation, over-surveillance, structural bias and racism.

In Australia, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children are over-represented in child protection services, and there’s a damaging drift from child protection and out-of-home care into youth justice services.

Frustrated and fearful communities have often called for stronger punitive measures to deal with youth crime, but these are unhelpful in the longer term. Harsher punishment doesn’t divert young people away from offending. Rather, it tends to lead to a pattern of reoffending (called recidivism).

Evidence suggests approaches that divert young people away from entering the justice system, and reengage and reintegrate offenders into the community, have greater success in reducing youth crime.

What we studied

We undertook three studies. First, we reviewed relevant national and international publications and reports that looked at perceptions of at risk children and youth about social services provided to them.

Next, we undertook a “photovoice” project, in which young people took photos that conveyed how they felt about culture, community and the services they accessed.

The Victorian Koori Youth Council’s Report Ngaga-Dji in 2018 identified that children’s voices can be the missing piece in meeting the needs of young people in the juvenile justice system.

Read more:
Queensland’s LNP wants a curfew for kids, but evidence suggests this won’t reduce crime

In our third study, we gave young people the role of peer researchers, working with staff from the partner service and university researchers to document their own and their friends’ experiences of using the local diversionary service and broader youth services.

The service aims to build young people’s capacities. It helps support relationships between the young people and their families/carers, providing meals and overnight accommodation when they are in crisis.

The service also encourages them to resume their schooling, helps them feel included, supported, accepted, to have their say, and make positive choices about their lives. It encourages young people to come to the diversionary service in the evening instead of roaming the streets.

What young people at risk of offending told us

One young person involved in the photography project said:

Us kids can’t go to shopping centres without, you know, police coming.

Another young person added:

They are too racist against the Black people.

Others wanted to feel included:

The community is not private; a community is for everyone.

Pointing to fears about being unsafe on the streets, one young person said the diversionary service staff “keep us safe from vigilantes”.

Media reports suggest there’s been growing vigilante behaviour in north Queensland. In one example, a vigilante group put up flyers in Mackay in May this year announcing plans to enforce their own 10pm curfew for children “due to the large number of unpunished break-ins and car thefts”.

Fearing similar vigilantes, one participant in our study said:

They tried to throw me in a car but I ran away.

Read more:
Diverting children away from the criminal justice system gives them a chance to ‘grow out’ of crime

Young people told us the diversionary service provided a safe, supportive space. Specifically talking about the staff, the young people recognised “how they support you” to “control [your] anger” and taught them to respect culture, themselves and others.

Another said that “no-one can grab us off the streets” at the diversionary service.

Pointing to life circumstances sometimes overwhelming them, one young person added:

you can’t always keep the grief to yourself, you can talk to an adult.

These findings provide a unique view of youth offending through the eyes of young people, which can contribute to improving services that divert young people away from crime and can help to connect alienated young people with the community.

We acknowledge the vital work of the partner organisation and thank the staff and young people who participated in the research, including key partner researchers Nikkola Savuro and Sara O’Reilly.

Susan Gair is an Adjunct Associate Professor at James Cook University. Nothing to Disclose

Ines Zuchowski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. ‘We can’t go shopping without police coming’: north Queensland’s at-risk youth feel excluded and heavily surveilled – https://theconversation.com/we-cant-go-shopping-without-police-coming-north-queenslands-at-risk-youth-feel-excluded-and-heavily-surveilled-211885

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Denis Muller, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Advancing Journalism, The University of Melbourne

Ita Buttrose has announced she will not seek a second term as ABC chair, which means her term will expire in March 2024.

Buttrose’s appointment as chair of the ABC in February 2019 was tainted by being a “captain’s pick” on the part of then Prime Minister Scott Morrison, yet at crucial moments she was to prove a strong defender of the ABC’s independence against the predations of his government.

It was the issue that came to define her tenure. It had also brought down her predecessor, Justin Milne. The manner of her appointment continued the Coalition’s contemptuous disregard of the independent merit-based selection process for ABC board appointments, and she inherited a board stained by political patronage.

Four of the seven non-executive directors already there had been appointed outside the merit system by Mitch Fifield as minister for communication.

Buttrose herself put ABC independence at the centre of her commitments. In a sharp departure from Milne’s temporising approach to government pressure, Buttrose stated soon after her appointment:

I will fight any attempts to muzzle the national broadcaster or interfere with its obligations to the Australian public. Independence is not exercised by degrees. It is absolute.

Read more:
Ita Buttrose’s appointment as new ABC chair a promising step in the right direction

Within months, this declaration was put to the test when the Australian Federal Police raided the ABC headquarters in Sydney as part of an investigation into who had leaked information about alleged war crimes by Australian soldiers in Afghanistan. Buttrose attacked the police raid as a clear attempt to intimidate journalists.

In November 2020, it was put to the test again. Four Corners broadcast a program called Inside the Canberra Bubble. In it Rachelle Miller, a former staffer to acting Immigration Minister Alan Tudge, said she had had an affair with him. She also alleged that Christian Porter, who was to become attorney-general, had been seen cuddling a staffer of another minister in a Canberra bar in 2017. Porter denied the claim.

On November 30, Minister for Communications Paul Fletcher wrote to Buttrose demanding answers within 14 days to 15 questions mostly about the program’s impartiality.

On the 14th day, December 14 2020, Buttrose sent him a reply, hitting back hard. She dismissed the 15 questions and accused the government of a pattern of behaviour that “smacks of political interference”.

The ABC’s managing director, David Anderson, subsequently told a Senate estimates committee hearing that Buttrose had seen the program before it went to air and had supported the decision to broadcast it.

Then in late February 2021, Four Corners broke a related story saying the Australian Federal Police had been notified of a letter sent to Scott Morrison detailing an alleged historical rape by a cabinet minister in the federal government.

In early March, Christian Porter outed himself as the cabinet minister referred to, and strongly denied the allegation.

He sued the ABC for defamation but the ABC defended it vigorously and he discontinued the action.

In late 2021, Buttrose went on the attack again, this time over an attempt by Liberal Senator Andrew Bragg to launch a Senate inquiry into the ABC’s complaints process, while an internal inquiry into the same issue was already on foot. She called it out as a “partisan political exercise” and Bragg’s effort foundered.

It is clear that far from behaving like a Liberal Party stooge, Buttrose has stood up courageously for the ABC’s independence, as she said she would. That will be an important part of her legacy.

Yet she has not been able to imbue the organisation’s editorial leadership with the same spirit. This was shown in two recent cases where editorial independence was again under attack.

The first concerned the coverage of King Charles III’s coronation in May. For about 45 minutes in the lead-up to the ceremony, the ABC ran a panel discussion about the contemporary relevance of the British monarchy to Australian lives. The nine guests on the program included Stan Grant, a Wiradjuri man and celebrated ABC journalist.

The panel discussion provoked a backlash and drew about 1,800 complaints to the ABC. After investigating these, the ABC ombudsman found the program had not breached the ABC’s editorial policies.

Much of the backlash focused on Grant, and in late May he stepped aside from his role as moderator of Q+A on ABC television, writing in his ABC column:

No one at the ABC — whose producers invited me onto their coronation coverage as a guest — has uttered one word of public support. Not one ABC executive has publicly refuted the lies written or spoken about me. I don’t hold any individual responsible; this is an institutional failure.

He has since left the ABC and taken up a position at Monash University.

Read more:
Stan Grant’s treatment is a failure of ABC’s leadership, mass media, and debate in this country

It was not until Grant announced his decision to step back from Q+A that the head of the ABC’s news division, Justin Stevens, finally made a public statement in Grant’s defence, apologising for not having done so “ten days earlier”. Anderson’s apology to Grant in a staff email had come only one day sooner.

The second case concerns Nicole Chvastek, an experienced journalist who, until March, had presented ABC Radio Victoria’s Statewide Drive program for almost a decade.

Her career ended abruptly in July after a 17-month saga set in motion by a complaint from a National Party politician, Darren Chester, telephoned directly to a senior ABC executive in Sydney. It concerned the way Chvastek had covered the Morrison government’s handling of flood relief payments to victims in northern NSW: those who lived in the National seat of Page got more, initially, than those in the neighbouring Labor-held seat of Richmond.

The details of Chvastek’s case have been traversed elsewhere. It remains only for me to declare that for eight and a half years I was a guest on her program discussing media issues, and the charge of misconduct arising from Chester’s complaint was not upheld.

In both cases, at the most senior levels of ABC editorial leadership there was a failure of an editor’s first responsibility, which is to provide a safe environment within which staff can do good journalism.

There have been many analyses of how nine years of Coalition government attacks demoralised the ABC. But with Buttrose’s departure now on the horizon, it is time for others at the top to stand up.

I was a guest on Nicole Chvastek’s ABC Radio Victoria Statewide Drive program for eight and a half years discussing media issues. I declare this in the article itself.

– ref. As ABC chair, Ita Buttrose stood up for the broadcaster’s independence. It’s time others did the same – https://theconversation.com/as-abc-chair-ita-buttrose-stood-up-for-the-broadcasters-independence-its-time-others-did-the-same-212018

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ralf Steinhauser, Senior Research Fellow, Australian National University

You see a fantastic offer, like a hotel room. You decide to book. Then it turns out there is a service fee. Then a cleaning fee. Then a few other extra costs. By the time you pay the final price, it is no longer the fantastic offer you thought.

Welcome to the world of drip pricing – the practice of advertising something at an attractive headline price and then, once you’ve committed to the purchase process, hitting you with unavoidable extra fees that are incrementally disclosed, or “dripped”.

Drip pricing – a type of “junk fee” – is notorious in event and travel ticketing, and is creeping into other areas, such as movie tickets. My daughter, for example, was surprised to find her ticket to the Barbie movie had a “booking fee”, increasing the cost of her ticket by 13%.

It seems like such an annoying trick that you may wonder why sellers do it. The reason is because it works, due to two fundamental cognitive biases: the way we value the present over the future; and the way we hate losses more than we love gains.

Present bias preference: why starting over feels too costly

In the case of booking that hotel room, you could abandon the transaction and look for something cheaper once the extra charges become apparent. But there’s a good chance you won’t, due to the effort and time involved.

This is where the trap lies.

Resistance to the idea of starting the search all over again is not simply a matter of laziness or indecision. There’s a profound psychological mechanism at play here, called a present-bias preference – that we value things immediately in front of us more than things more distant in the future.

In their seminal 1999 paper, Doing it now or later, economists Mathew Rabin and Ted O’Donoghue define present-biased preference as “the human tendency to grab immediate rewards and to avoid immediate costs”.

They give the example of choosing between doing seven hours of unpleasant activity on April 1 or eight hours two weeks later. If asked about this a few months beforehand, most people will choose the earlier option. “But come April 1, given the same choice, most of us are apt to put of work till April 15.”

In simple terms, the inconvenience and effort of doing something “right now” often feels disproportionately large.

Drip pricing exploits this cognitive bias by getting you to make a decision and commit to the transaction process. When you’re far into a complicated booking process and extra prices get added, starting all over again feels like a burden.

Often enough, this means you’ll settle for the higher-priced hotel room.

Read more:
Why telling people they could get sick in the future won’t persuade them to be healthy now

Loss aversion: buying more expensive tickets

Beyond the challenge of starting over, there’s another subtle force at work when it comes to our spending decisions. Drip pricing doesn’t just capitalise on our desire for immediate rewards; it also plays on our innate fear of losing out.

This second psychological phenomenon that drip pricing exploits is known as loss aversion – that we feel more pain from losing something than pleasure from gaining the same thing.

The concept of loss aversion was first outlined by economists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in a 1979 paper that is the third most-cited article in economics.

Drip pricing exploits this tendency, by dragging us away from more “rational” choices.

Imagine you’re booking tickets for a show. Initially attracted by the observed headline price, you are now presented with different seating categories. Seeing the “VIP” are within your budget, you decide to splurge.

But then, during the checkout process, the drip of extra costs begins. You realise you could have opted for lower-category seats and stayed within your budget. But by this stage you’ve already changed your expectation and imagined yourself enjoying the show from those nice seats.

Going back and booking cheaper seats will feel like a loss.

Read more:
Explainer: what is loss aversion and is it real?

Do consumers need protection?

Empirical evidence supports the above theoretical predictions about the impact of drop pricing on consumers.

A 2020 study quantified how much consumers dislike the lack of transparency in drip pricing (based on tracking the reactions of 225 undergraduates using fictional airline and hotel-booking websites). The authors liken the practice to the “taximeter effect” – the discomfort consumers feel watching costs accumulate.

But drip pricing’s effectiveness from a seller’s perspective is undeniable. A experimental study published in 2020 found drip pricing generates higher profits while lowering the “consumer surplus” (the benefit derived from buying a product or service). A 2021 analysis of data from StubHub, a US website for reselling tickets, calculated drip pricing increased revenue by 20%.

Which is why the tactic remains attractive to businesses despite customers disliking it.

Buyers would benefit from a ban of drip pricing. Many countries are taking steps to protect consumers from drip pricing.

The UK government, for example, announced a review of drip pricing in June, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak flagging the possibility of measures to curb the practice. The US government is also considering new regulations, with President Joe Biden denouncing “junk fees” in his 2023 State of the Union address. Proposed changes include requiring airlines and online booking services to disclose the full ticket price upfront, inclusive of baggage and other fees.

The effectiveness of measures, however, is still being debated.

In the meantime, your principal protection is making a more informed decision, by understanding why the tactic works. Bargains may attract you, but you can learn to not fall for hidden costs and align your choices with your budget and values.

Ralf Steinhauser does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Junk fees and drip pricing: the underhanded tactics we hate yet still fall for – https://theconversation.com/junk-fees-and-drip-pricing-the-underhanded-tactics-we-hate-yet-still-fall-for-211117

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard de Grijs, Professor of Astrophysics / Executive Director, International Space Science Institute-Beijing, Macquarie University

This week, the Russian space agency Roscosmos had hoped to return to the Moon after an absence of nearly 50 years. Instead, on Saturday it lost control of its Luna-25 lander. The agency explained the spacecraft “switched to an off-design orbit and ceased to exist as a result of a collision with the lunar surface”.

Yet, in an interview aired on state television, the agency’s chief, Yuri Borisov, pledged his nation’s unwavering commitment to lunar exploration:

This is not just about the prestige of the country and the achievement of some geopolitical goals. This is about ensuring defensive capabilities and achieving technological sovereignty.

Roscosmos had been keen to beat a rival Indian spacecraft, Chandrayaan-3, to achieve a soft landing near the lunar south pole. The Indian mission remains on schedule for a soft landing today (around 9pm AEST).

Despite the Luna-25 failure, the head of Russia’s space agency also declared a “new race to exploit the Moon’s resources has begun”, and there would be a potential crewed Russian-Chinese mission in the future, as reported by Reuters. His statement sounds like it is less about the scientific exploration of the lunar surface, and more about geopolitical posturing.

I recently spent the better part of a decade as a senior academic at Peking University, and in July 2023 was appointed as Executive Director of the International Space Science Institute–Beijing. These appointments have allowed me to gain unique insights into the processes driving China’s space science program.

Read more:
Is the US in a space race against China?

A lunar outpost

The lunar south pole region is thought to contain significant water reservoirs locked in grains of ice. That makes the area interesting as a potential staging post for future missions to Mars and beyond, as lunar explorers can use the water for survival.

In early 2021, Roscosmos and the China National Space Administration signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly establish an International Lunar Research Station by the mid-2030s.

The lunar south pole may well be a prime site for such a robotic base, which might also involve the European Space Agency and other international partners.

Yet human involvement in Sino-Russian space missions is not anticipated any time soon. Therefore, Borisov’s assertion that Russia would explore a joint crewed mission came as an unlikely surprise. He may well have been speaking to a domestic audience, in an attempt to salvage his agency’s credentials.

Despite an impressive number of collaboration agreements, high-profile Sino-Russian space projects remain few and far between. If joint human exploration of the Moon is not currently on the cards, it is highly unlikely the Chinese space authorities will take the bait.

No need for a space race

China has always carefully planned its approach to Solar System exploration and human spaceflight, navigating a succession of clearly defined technological benchmarks. China will unlikely be coerced into rushing its planned milestones. As such, the notion of a “space race” involving China seems a moot point.

Chinese scientists and engineers have become highly adept at developing homegrown capabilities. They no longer require international assistance. If anything, in the Sino-Russian relationship, Russia is now well and truly the junior partner. Its ageing technology pales in comparison with the leaps of modernisation we have witnessed in relation to China’s progress in space.

Although the country only joined the league of space-faring nations in 1970 with the launch of its first satellite, Dong Fang Hong 1 (The East is Red 1), it has since made massive strides in technology readiness.

China’s lunar exploration program has gradually built on proven capabilities, from entering the Moon’s orbit on its first lunar missions (Chang’e 1 and Chang’e 2; named after the Chinese Moon goddess) to achieving soft landings (Chang’e 3 and Chang’e 4) and a successful sample return mission, Chang’e 5.

Venturing out to the planets

Solar System exploration is now firmly on China’s agenda, not least because of the recent Tianwen 1 (Heavenly Questions) mission to Mars. That mission successfully deployed the Zhurong rover (named after a Chinese mythological god of fire), a major technological feat in its own right.

Read more:
On its first try, China’s Zhurong rover hit a Mars milestone that took NASA decades

Similarly, China’s human spaceflight program is starting to yield impressive results. As the country’s scientists and engineers are banned from collaborating with their federally funded US counterparts by the 2011 Wolf Amendment, the China Manned Space program has been pursuing construction of a sovereign space station, Tiangong (Heavenly Palace).

Future plans include the development of a next-generation crewed spacecraft to replace the workhorse Shenzhou (Divine Vessel on the Heavenly River) series. We are told it will be capable of carrying taikonauts to the Moon, but that does not mean Russian cosmonauts will be invited to come along.

Although China can no longer boast the economic successes of the past and external cash injections might be seen as helpful, Russia’s financial losses due to its ongoing war in Ukraine may well make any such overtures merely wishful thinking.

Russia’s prowess in space appears to have become just a dim reflection of its Soviet precursor.

Read more:
China’s new space station opens for business in an increasingly competitive era of space activity

Richard de Grijs is the Executive Director of the International Space Science Institute–Beijing (ISSI-BJ). ISSI-BJ is an international, politically neutral platform for the exploitation of space science data and the preparation for future space-borne scientific missions.

– ref. Russia has declared a new space race, hoping to join forces with China. Here’s why that’s unlikely – https://theconversation.com/russia-has-declared-a-new-space-race-hoping-to-join-forces-with-china-heres-why-thats-unlikely-211993

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert G. Patman, Professor of International Relations, University of Otago

Strategy, as the great military thinker Carl von Clausewitz once observed, is the process of effectively applying means to achieve clearly defined ends. But good strategy in global politics has proved easier said than done.

The post-Cold War era is replete with examples of poor strategy, be it the US invasion of Iraq, China’s claim to 90% of the South China Sea, or the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

So does the formation of AUKUS – the tripartite security partnership established by the US, UK and Australia in 2021 – offer the prospect of a coherent strategy in the Indo-Pacific region?

More to the point, would New Zealand’s involvement advance its national interests? It’s an urgent question the next government will need to think about very carefully before deciding.

The means and ends of AUKUS

AUKUS consists of two key pillars. The first involves Australia acquiring eight to ten nuclear-powered submarines from the US and the UK over the next three decades, at an estimated cost of between A$268 billion and A$368 billion.

The second pillar involves the sharing of information in new cutting-edge defence technologies, such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing and cyber capabilities.

Read more:
AUKUS is already trialling autonomous weapons systems – where is NZ’s policy on next-generation warfare?

It is claimed AUKUS will help defend “a shared commitment to the international rules-based order” in the Indo-Pacific region, and promote stability and prosperity by motivating other regional states to enhance their defence (on their own or jointly with the AUKUS governments).

But, to date, AUKUS leaders have failed to make a sustained public case for how the means and ends of this security pact fit together. The arrangement seems to be based on the assumption it will deter or counter China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region.

New Zealand and AUKUS

Initially, non-nuclear New Zealand was not involved in AUKUS. But in March, Minister of Defence Andrew Little revealed the country was exploring an invitation from the US to join pillar two.

In late July, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed the “door is open” for New Zealand to engage with AUKUS. To date, the Labour government has not made a clear decision either way.

However, the Ministry of Defence has indicated that national security decisions start from the premise that “we take the world as it is, not how we would like it to be”.

In that case, New Zealand must carefully weigh trends at the global, regional and national levels to determine its relationship with an AUKUS pact that has yet to clearly define its strategic purpose.

A complex global picture

New Zealand’s recently released “roadmap for the future of defence and national security” emphasised a serious decline in the global security environment.

This is characterised by intensifying rivalry between the US and China, and what is seen as a growing Chinese threat to the international rules-based order New Zealand depends on.

Read more:
NZ’s first national security strategy signals a ‘turning point’ and the end of old certainties

But this is an incomplete picture. China is an authoritarian state with global ambitions, but these should not be overblown.

The country’s rise to superpower status has been built on an outstanding trade performance in the global capitalist economy. And Beijing’s one-party state remains too heavily dependent on Western export markets to be a “systemic” threat to liberal democracies.

While China rejected a ruling by the Hague Tribunal in 2016 on its territorial claim in the South China Sea, its revisionist ambitions pale in comparison with those of Vladimir Putin.

Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014, and then ripped up the UN Charter in February 2022 with a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which contravened the core legal principles of state sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Read more:
After being a ‘welcome guest’ at NATO, NZ now needs to consider what our partnership with the alliance really means

Moreover, the threat to the international rules-based order has not been confined to authoritarian states. As US president, Donald Trump publicly opposed multilateral institutions like the WTO, launched a trade war with China, and then refused to accept his election defeat in 2020.

And increased globalisation means many of the political, economic and environmental challenges facing nations – including superpowers – transcend borders and cannot be resolved alone.

Nuclear politics

A major problem facing AUKUS lies in its implicit assumption that the 40 or so countries comprising the vast Indo-Pacific region lack the agency and capacity to counter China’s domination.

To be sure, Chinese regional and global assertiveness is real. But while those Indo-Pacific states remain wary of China, many do not see themselves as pawns in a global strategic contest between Beijing and the AUKUS partners.

They question whether the Anglosphere represents a credible security response in a region containing 60% of the world’s population, significant economic powers like Japan and South Korea, and fast-growing economies such as Vietnam and India.

Also, a number of those states have criticised AUKUS for potentially fuelling nuclear proliferation through the Australian submarine deal. The region is already home to the 1986 South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone and the 1995 Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone treaties.

Read more:
Out of the shadows: why making NZ’s security threat assessment public for the first time is the right move

NZ independence on the line

Given New Zealand’s independent foreign policy based on non-nuclear security and closer ties with the Pacific, joining pillar two of AUKUS presents significant risks to its standing in the world.

New Zealand shares a great deal politically with Australia, the UK and US, and it is important Wellington boosts its defence capabilities.

But its distinctive worldview does not sit comfortably with an implicit AUKUS framing of China as the only major threat to the liberal order, and that the destiny of the Indo-Pacific will be decided by great power competition.

Involvement in AUKUS pillar two looks like a poor strategy for New Zealand. It does little to advance its independent foreign policy interests, including a core commitment to strengthen the international rules-based order. And it could be interpreted in the Indo-Pacific as a retreat back to the Anglosphere.

While the issue is unlikely to be decided before the October election, a new government will soon face the prospect of making a potentially momentous decision about New Zealand’s foreign policy direction.

Robert G. Patman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The defence dilemma facing NZ’s next government: stay independent or join ‘pillar 2’ of AUKUS? – https://theconversation.com/the-defence-dilemma-facing-nzs-next-government-stay-independent-or-join-pillar-2-of-aukus-212090

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samuel Cornell, PhD Candidate, School of Population Health, UNSW Sydney

In the age of the selfie taking photos of yourself has become an everyday occurrence. Half of all teenagers regularly post selfies. Driven by social media algorithms, many of us now flock to natural places for the best selfie background.

But what happens when our pursuit of the perfect selfie starts damaging nature – or even ourselves? Many people have been severely injured or killed by taking risky selfies and photos in dangerous locations. Indian researchers catalogued 259 selfie-related deaths worldwide as of 2018.

Read more:
Dangerous selfies aren’t just foolish. We need to treat them like the public health hazard they really are

And the search for the perfect selfie can injure animals like quokkas, crayfish and glow-worms, protected plants and even First Nations rock art. Selfies have even become a biosecurity threat.

Spare a thought for our land managers, tasked with caring for the natural places sometimes despoiled for a photo and emergency workers entrusted with rescuing selfie-seekers. As our new research has found, Australia’s land managers are often at their wit’s end trying to keep people safe in nature.

The problem? Fences and warning signs don’t work well. Hardcore selfie-seekers jump the fence and perch on the edge of the cliff to get the shot. We may well need selfie educational campaigns.

Read more:
Instagram is making you a worse tourist – here’s how to travel respectfully

Selfies make a new brand of tourist

Social media tourism is drastically changing who and how many of us go to places such as Figure Eight Pools in Sydney’s Royal National Park or Josephine Falls not far from Cairns.

As one land manager told us:

We noticed a massive increase in the number of people, and the kind of visitor that we were getting. We’re getting a lot more people who are maybe urban based, didn’t spend a lot of time in national parks, weren’t particularly familiar with the concept of bushwalking

Land managers told us these new kinds of tourist were motivated to seek out photos and selfies. The problem was, many were willing to ignore warning signs or bans on drones to get their photos.

You know, it’s all just to get that photo, really. That’s it. People definitely, more so now than ever, I think, are coming for the photo. They’re not coming for a bushwalk and to look around at the trees and to experience nature.

Drone use is common, even when it is banned.

They break the Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) rules [on drones], every flipping day, they annoy the people, the guests, the wildlife […] I’ve got eight crashed drones in the park currently [risking] environmental harm to the park if they catch fire or the batteries leak in the World Heritage area, in the creeks where the rare crayfish are.

For other land managers, the challenge is the damage to the environment. Plants get trampled, wildlife disturbed, and in some cases, delicate ecosystems suffer long-term damage.

Someone goes swimming, puts it on social media and suddenly there’s 100 people a day coming to go wild swimming where the platypus and the glow-worms live. And in a wet year, suddenly all the vegetation around the rock pool is trampled, it turns into a muddy mess

Mainstream tourism bodies can make the problem worse by promoting social media hotspot locations.

I was horrified the other day noticing promotions for these Figure Eight pools. I just thought, “You’ve gotta be kidding me. How many times have we told the tourism industry to stop it?”

Safe selfies?

Perhaps the thorniest challenge for land managers is accommodating increased interest while keeping people safe. That’s because selfie-seekers sometimes deliberately avoid safety measures like fences. As one land manager told us:

They want to get a photo without a fence in it. Look at me with my toes over the edge of the crumbly sandstone cliff.

Other land managers are working to assist this new demand by reshaping nature to make better scenery – and keep visitors safer. At Moran Falls in Queensland’s Lamington National Park, a famous view across the gorge had been obscured by vegetation. That drove some visitors to jump the fence at the viewing platform and stand directly on top of a very tall cliff.

As a solution, land managers got an arborist to trim the trees blocking the view and then use the fallen limbs to hide the goat track made by selfie-seekers.

Once we improved the view and the photo shot, people were happy to take the photo from the platform. But when the view was impeded from the platform, they would undertake risky behaviour and stand on top of a 300ft cliff, right on the edge, to get the photo.

Why do traditional measures like signs and warnings often prove ineffective? The answer may lie in social validation. For many, the risk seems worth the reward if it means garnering admiration on social media.

Nature-based content on platforms like Instagram and TikTok often performs very well, giving other would-be influencers the incentive to seek out new locations.

What can we do?

Land managers have repeatedly told us signs aren’t working for these new tourists. As a result, there’s an urgent need to communicate risk and safety information in novel ways which resonate.

The tools land managers have are often preventive – barriers, boardwalks and signs, coupled with punitive measures such as fines. But this isn’t working.

Better risk communication, as New South Wales authorities are doing with time-sensitive risk warnings for Figure Eight Pools, may help.

Our research points to the need for fresh strategies to tackle social media hotspots and selfie-seeking by understanding what drives social-media tourists, improving risk communication and developing partnerships.

This problem has been created by the confluence of social media and human psychology. It may well be that the solution lies in the same intersection.

Responsible selfie and tourism campaigns on platforms like TikTok and Instagram could be a start.

After all, it’s not that national parks shouldn’t have visitors. It’s finding ways to deal with this spurt of interest which doesn’t harm people – or nature.

Samuel Cornell receives funding from Meta Platforms, Inc. His research is also supported by a UNSW Sydney, University Postgraduate Award, as well as project funding from the Royal Life Saving Society – Australia. He is affiliated with Surf Life Saving Australia and Surf Life Saving NSW.

Amy Peden receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council. She maintains an honorary affiliation with Royal Life Saving – Australia as a Senior Research Fellow. This project receives funding from Meta Platforms, Royal Life Saving Society – Australia and Surf Life Saving Australia.

– ref. Trampling plants, damaging rock art, risking your life: taking selfies in nature has a cost – https://theconversation.com/trampling-plants-damaging-rock-art-risking-your-life-taking-selfies-in-nature-has-a-cost-211901