Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 46.8–43.7 with 3.9% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. In my previous US politics article on August 5, Harris led Trump by 45.5–44.1.

Joe Biden’s final position before his withdrawal as Democratic candidate on July 21 was a national poll deficit against Trump of 45.2–41.2. By the election, Biden will be almost 82, Trump will be 78 and Harris will be 60.

The US president isn’t elected by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives Electoral Votes based mostly on population. Almost all states award their Electoral Votes as winner takes all, and it takes 270 Electoral Votes to win (out of 538 total).

In the states narrowly won by Biden in 2020, Harris leads Trump by 4.1 points in Michigan, 3.8 points in Wisconsin, 2.1 points in Pennsylvania, two points in Nevada and one point in Arizona. Georgia is the only Biden-won state that still has Trump ahead, by 0.5 points. Trump is ahead by 1.1 points in North Carolina, a state he won in 2020.

There has been movement to Harris across all swing states in the past week. If Harris wins all the states she currently leads in, she would win the Electoral College by a 287–251 margin.

Silver’s model gives Harris a 56% chance to win the Electoral College and a 68.5% chance to win the national popular vote. Harris’ Electoral College chances have improved from 50.5% on August 5 and 37% when the Harris vs Trump model was launched on July 29. Trump had a 73% chance to win when his opponent was Biden.

Harris needs at least a two-point win in the national popular vote to be the Electoral College favourite, so the Electoral College is still relatively close. There’s also still plenty of time in which things could go wrong for Harris, or the polls could be understating Trump, as they did in 2020. But currently Harris is the slight favourite to win.

Harris’ net favourability in the FiveThirtyEight tracker of national polls is -4.1, with 48.0% unfavourable and 44.0% favourable, Her net favourablity has surged since Biden’s withdrawal, when it was -16.0. Trump’s net favourability has improved since the mid-July Republican convention, and is now -8.2 (it was -12.0 before the convention).

Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, has a -9.4 net favourable rating, down from -3.3 when he was announced at the Republican convention. Harris’ running mate Tim Walz is at about net +5 favourable. Biden’s net approval is still poor at -16.3.

The Democratic convention will take place from Monday to Thursday next week. Normally, major party presidential candidates are well known to voters by this stage, as they need to win the nominations by winning primaries that are held early in an election year.

In this case, Harris has only been the Democratic candidate for three weeks, and so the Democratic convention is a big opportunity for her to personally appeal to voters. Silver’s model will anticipate a bounce for Harris from the convention, and won’t move in her favour unless her bounce is bigger than expected.

Harris’ choice of running mate

Last week, Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her vice presidential candidate. Media reports suggested the final two candidates for this position were Walz and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.

In Silver’s model, Pennsylvania is most likely to be the “tipping point” state. If either Trump or Harris win Pennsylvania, they win the Electoral College over 93% of the time.

The tipping point state is the state that puts the winning candidate over the magic 270 Electoral Votes. It is calculated after the election by ordering all states and their Electoral Votes from biggest Harris to Trump margins, then observing the state and margin that put the winner over 270 Electoral Votes.

The six states that are considered most likely to be won by either Trump or Harris are Nevada (six Electoral Votes), Wisconsin (ten), Arizona (11), Michigan (15), Georgia (16) and Pennsylvania (19). So Pennsylvania is the largest of the swing states.

At the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, Shapiro defeated his Republican opponent by a 56.5–41.7 margin in a state that Biden won by just 1.2% in the 2020 presidential election. In a July Pennsylvania poll by Emerson College, Shapiro had a net +18 approval rating, with 49% approving while 31% disapproved.

From the point of view of maximising Harris’ chances of winning Pennsylvania and the election, Shapiro was the better choice. If Harris loses Pennsylvania but gets between 251 and 269 Electoral Votes, so that she would have won with Pennsylvania’s 19, she and Democrats will regret overlooking Shapiro.

In the Electoral College map above that was based on candidate leads in states, if Harris loses Pennsylvania while holding other states she leads in, she loses the Electoral College by 270–268. If she loses Arizona and Nevada but holds Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, she wins by 270–268.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Harris’ lead over Trump continues to increase in US national and swing state polls – https://theconversation.com/harris-lead-over-trump-continues-to-increase-in-us-national-and-swing-state-polls-236576

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Manuela Ferreira, Professor of Musculoskeletal Health, Head of Musculoskeletal Program, George Institute for Global Health

It’s cold and wet outside. As you get out of bed, you can feel it in your bones. Your right knee is flaring up again. That’ll make it harder for you to walk the dog or go to the gym. You think it must be because of the weather.

It’s a common idea, but a myth.

When we looked at the evidence, we found no direct link between most common aches and pains and the weather. In the first study of its kind, we found no direct link between the temperature or humidity with most joint or muscle aches and pains.

So why are so many of us convinced the weather’s to blame? Here’s what we think is really going on.

Weather can be linked to your health

The weather is often associated with the risk of new and ongoing health conditions. For example, cold temperatures may worsen asthma symptoms. Hot temperatures increase the risk of heart problems, such as arrhythmia (irregular heartbeat), cardiac arrest and coronary heart disease.

Many people are also convinced the weather is linked to their aches and pains. For example, two in every three people with knee, hip or hand osteoarthritis say cold temperatures trigger their symptoms.

Musculoskeletal conditions affect more than seven million Australians. So we set out to find out whether weather is really the culprit behind winter flare-ups.

What we did

Very few studies have been specifically and appropriately designed to look for any direct link between weather changes and joint or muscle pain. And ours is the first to evaluate data from these particular studies.

We looked at data from more than 15,000 people from around the world. Together, these people reported more than 28,000 episodes of pain, mostly back pain, knee or hip osteoarthritis. People with rheumatoid arthritis and gout were also included.

We then compared the frequency of those pain reports between different types of weather: hot or cold, humid or dry, rainy, windy, as well as some combinations (for example, hot and humid versus cold and dry).

What we found

We found changes in air temperature, humidity, air pressure and rainfall do not increase the risk of knee, hip or lower back pain symptoms and are not associated with people seeking care for a new episode of arthritis.

The results of this study suggest we do not experience joint or muscle pain flare-ups as a result of changes in the weather, and a cold day will not increase our risk of having knee or back pain.

In order words, there is no direct link between the weather and back, knee or hip pain, nor will it give you arthritis.

It is important to note, though, that very cold air temperatures (under 10°C) were rarely studied so we cannot make conclusions about worsening symptoms in more extreme changes in the weather.

The only exception to our findings was for gout, an inflammatory type of arthritis that can come and go. Here, pain increased in warmer, dry conditions.

Gout has a very different underlying biological mechanism to back pain or knee and hip osteoarthritis, which may explain our results. The combination of warm and dry weather may lead to increased dehydration and consequently increased concentration of uric acid in the blood, and deposition of uric acid crystals in the joint in people with gout, resulting in a flare-up.

Why do people blame the weather?

The weather can influence other factors and behaviours that consequently shape how we perceive and manage pain.

For example, some people may change their physical activity routine during winter, choosing the couch over the gym. And we know prolonged sitting, for instance, is directly linked to worse back pain. Others may change their sleep routine or sleep less well when it is either too cold or too warm. Once again, a bad night’s sleep can trigger your back and knee pain.

Likewise, changes in mood, often experienced in cold weather, trigger increases in both back and knee pain.

So these changes in behaviour over winter may contribute to more aches and pains, and not the weather itself.

Believing our pain will feel worse in winter (even if this is not the case) may also make us feel worse in winter. This is known as the nocebo effect.

What to do about winter aches and pains?

It’s best to focus on risk factors for pain you can control and modify, rather than ones you can’t (such as the weather).

You can:

• become more physically active. This winter, and throughout the year, aim to walk more, or talk to your health-care provider about gentle exercises you can safely do at home, with a physiotherapist, personal trainer or at the pool

• lose weight if obese or overweight, as this is linked to lower levels of joint pain and better physical function

• keep your body warm in winter if you feel some muscle tension in uncomfortably cold conditions. Also ensure your bedroom is nice and warm as we tend to sleep less well in cold rooms

• maintain a healthy diet and avoid smoking or drinking high levels of alcohol. These are among key lifestyle recommendations to better manage many types of arthritis and musculoskeletal conditions. For people with back pain, for example, a healthy lifestyle is linked with higher levels of physical function.

Manuela Ferreira receives funding from multiple research foundations and Australian and international government research councils. None of it related to this article.

Manuela Ferreira has provided expert consultation to the Advisory Board of VIATRIS Medical Affairs to guide the appropriate use of celecoxib.

Leticia Deveza is affiliated with Rheumatology Department, Royal North Shore Hospital and Kolling Institute, University of Sydney.

– ref. No, your aches and pains don’t get worse in the cold. So why do we think they do? – https://theconversation.com/no-your-aches-and-pains-dont-get-worse-in-the-cold-so-why-do-we-think-they-do-235117

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tristan Kennedy, Professor & Pro Vice-Chancellor (Indigenous), Monash University

Australia has committed to elevating Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander knowledge as one of five national priorities in science and research.

This comes as part of the National Science Statement released on Monday by the Minister for Industry and Science, Ed Husic. The statement signals the national priorities that will shape investment and policy across research and development over the next decade.

Australian research already punches above its weight. The statement notes we produce 3.4% of the world’s research with just 0.33% of the world’s population. So how can we accelerate our impact?

Indigenous knowledge systems are a national strength. The history of science on this continent is extraordinary, yet we often fail to recognise the sophisticated knowledges held by our First Nations peoples. Indigenous voices must be at the table.

The first peoples, the first scientists

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples were the first astronomers, physicists, biologists and pharmacists on this continent. From as far back as 65,000 years Indigenous people have been integrating knowledge systems with and for people and Country.

There are many examples of Indigenous knowledge contributing to contemporary problems. Traditional Aboriginal burning takes into account local weather conditions, plants, environments and animals. It is showing how plants react to fire, how to reduce the risk of major fire events, and support regeneration and biodiversity.

Indigenous-led approaches to urban water are pointing towards more sustainable water management practices that also regenerate ecological and cultural environments.

Beyond this, Indigenous approaches to research can challenge Western science models in important ways that can bring about new leaps of innovation.

The stakes are high

The new national statement comes at a time when we face existential threats in climate change, artificial intelligence, new pandemics, social unrest and beyond. Research remains crucial to finding solutions for our survival.

But we must approach the task of elevating these knowledge systems in the right way and be mindful of the ongoing legacies of colonisation.

Eminent Māori scholar Linda Tuhiwai Smith has noted: Indigenous people are considered the most researched in the world, and yet have seen the least amount of benefit. The legacy of these past practices continues to foster uncertainty and distrust of research (and researchers) by many in Indigenous communities.

This observation, based on engagement and conversations with communities, highlights an imbalance in research benefit between those who are studied and those who do the research. It is tied to centuries of colonisation.

Science has long adhered to the principle of “do no harm”. However, Western science has sometimes done harm. This was recently highlighted in Melbourne University’s book Dhoombak Goobgoowana, or truth-telling in the Woi Wurrung language, which described some of the terrible outcomes of colonial biases in science.

At the same time Western institutions and industries have extracted an extraordinary amount of knowledge from Indigenous peoples. According to the World Health Organization

around 40% of pharmaceutical products today draw from nature and traditional knowledge, including landmark drugs: aspirin, artemisinin [an ancient Chinese herbal malaria treatment], and childhood cancer treatments.

This has benefited humanity, and fattened the profits of many pharmaceutical companies. Yet Indigenous people have seen very little financial benefit – or even credit.

This is one of the many reasons we need to foster Indigenous-led research and engage communities in research.

A seat at the table – and more

Bringing more people to the table – both in research and at universities in general – will help us ask better questions. It will ensure people, especially Indigenous peoples, can lead or guide the research, see benefit and help build capacity in communities.

The Australian Institute of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Studies code of ethics points the way forward. It centres Indigenous self-determination, Indigenous leadership, sustainability and accountability, and demonstrating impact and value. It all starts with listening, and ensuring that research addresses priorities determined and supported by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.

The National Science Statement calls for teamwork. It calls for research collaborations between universities, civil society, governments and international partners to solve some of our biggest societal, geopolitical, economic and environmental challenges.

This task also demands new approaches to what responsibility means in research. To create futures in which people can thrive, responsible research must go beyond compliance to formal rules of ethics and integrity.

It must ask much bigger questions about the place of research within local communities and much larger geopolitical environments. And it must reconsider how we partner well with the governments, industries and the communities with which we are embedded.

This takes us right back to the question of why we do research. Is it to publish more papers, or find a drug that makes a lot of money? Or are we here to make the world a better place?

It’s a question the National Statement on Science is asking. It is up to us to put it into practice.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Indigenous science can help solve some of the great problems of our time. Here’s how – https://theconversation.com/indigenous-science-can-help-solve-some-of-the-great-problems-of-our-time-heres-how-236597

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jeanette Mollenhauer, Honorary Fellow (Dance), Faculty of Fine Arts & Music, The University of Melbourne

The inclusion of breaking in the 2024 Olympic Games certainly raised eyebrows. And now, Australian competitor Rachael Gunn (known as “Raygun”) is one of the most famous Olympians from any nation – as well as Australia’s most famous dancer.

Her performance generated an onslaught of (often negative) social media memes, comments and bullying. However, her teammates showed their support, with Australian rower Angus Widdicombe even carrying Gunn on his shoulders on the day of the closing ceremony.

Raygun’s Olympic story offers the chance for Australians to examine their attitudes towards dance. For instance, was her dancing so out of place in a nation that has the Nutbush as one of its cultural icons?

Yes, Australia has impressive professional companies such as The Australian Ballet, Sydney Dance Company and Bangarra Dance Theatre, but Raygun has pushed community-based dance into the spotlight. She has also forced Australia to examine its own attitudes towards the various forms and functions of dance. And that’s your best move, B-girl!

A nation of shy dancers

Why do Australians feel that dance is mainly for performance, rather than participation? We get up and sing tunelessly at karaoke, but shy away from dancing in public. The most recent arts participation report from Creative Australia shows that while one in six Australians engage with music, only one in ten Australians regularly dance. It seems we’re just not a nation of recreational dancers.

In 2007, Australian dance writer Lee Christofis – a child of Greek immigrants – posed the question: “why can’t the ‘English’ teach their children how to dance?” He couldn’t understand why his Anglo-Australian neighbours had no community dance activities.

His observation still rings true today. Creative Australia’s 2023 report shows both First Nations Australians (25% compared to 8% of non-First Nations) and Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) Australians (17% compared to 6% of non-CALD) are more likely to dance than Anglo-Australians.

Maybe Anglo-Australians have been conditioned to think “dance” only means what we see on stages and screens – that it is something reserved for those with the physique and flair of Paul Mercurio in Strictly Ballroom (1992).

The community roots of dance

Unless they’re thinking about the Nutbush, white Australians don’t usually connect “dance” with “community” as First Nations and CALD Australians tend to. But the reality is that, alongside technique and athleticism, dance has always been about community, politics and expression.

In her own article for The Conversation, Gunn described how breakdancing emerged in the Bronx (New York) among African-American and Puerto Rican youths, before being adopted across nations.

And it’s not the only community dance form that has been co-opted for mass entertainment. Tap dance also emerged from African and Irish-American roots to be included in mainstream dance practices. Twerking is another example of a style with African roots being popularised through Western mass media.

But despite co-opting dances from various other cultures, Western societies still view classical ballet and contemporary dance as the pinnacle of the dance world. The dance section of The Sydney Morning Herald focuses on these two styles – and likely shapes public opinion. Certainly, media reviews can make or break an artist or troupe by either attracting or repelling audiences.

In Australia, it’s difficult for anyone outside of ballet and contemporary dance to receive adequate government funding. Money often doesn’t go beyond the stage door to the grassroots dancers – to those who enjoy folk, swing, square or, of course, breakdancing.

In Gunn’s own words:

[in] Australia, we haven’t had the same level of investment going in. […] I was never going to beat these b-girls at what they do, so I did what I do best and I went out and I showed myself, my creativity, my style, a little bit of Australian character so that I could try and make my mark on this world stage.

The reaction to Raygun’s performance is about dance, but also about national expectation; with Australia coming to the end of its most successful Games ever, receiving a score of zero is just not what people wanted to hear.

Raygun got the whole world talking

Even before the Paris games, it was confirmed that breaking won’t be renewed in the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics – held in the nation where breaking first emerged. Gunn wasn’t happy with the news.

She is a dance scholar with a focus on cultural politics in breaking. Her research centres on gender imbalances in breaking, with one early article containing a brief reference to her “enactment of Australian-ness” when dancing. Perhaps this approach inspired her Paris costume and choreography?

Although her routine didn’t land with everyone, Gunn has been defended by AusBreaking, fellow Olympians and even Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who applauded her for sticking to the “Australian tradition of people having a go”.

Overall, Gunn has given Australia much to talk about. The aftermath of her Olympic appearance has revealed a lot about our own attitudes towards dance – and the fact we don’t indulge in it as much we ought to. She has also brought breaking to the world’s attention – and for both of these, she should be congratulated.

Jeanette Mollenhauer is affiliated with PopMoves, a subsidiary of the Dance Studies Association. Rachael Gunn is also a member.

– ref. Raygun is now Australia’s most famous dancer. What does she reveal about our own attitudes towards dance? – https://theconversation.com/raygun-is-now-australias-most-famous-dancer-what-does-she-reveal-about-our-own-attitudes-towards-dance-236582

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jessica Holloway, Senior Research DECRA Fellow, Institute for Learning Sciences and Teacher Education, Australian Catholic University

The latest national NAPLAN results are out and the results are very similar to last year.

In both 2023 and 2024 we have seen about one in three school students fall short of minimum numeracy and literacy expectations and about one in ten needing additional support.

What does this mean?

What is NAPLAN?

Introduced in 2008, NAPLAN is an annual test of all Australian students in years 3, 5, 7 and 9. It aims to see whether students are developing basic skills in literacy and numeracy. Students receive one of four bands: “needs additional support,” “developing,” “strong” and “exceeding”.

Schools have been releasing individual results to families since the start of term 3. Today, we have the overall results.

What are the results?

In reading, the average proportion of students who achieved “exceeding” and “strong” levels in 2024 was 67%. This increased from Year 3 (66.3%) to Year 5 (71.4%), then dropped in Year 7 (67.3%) and Year 9 (63%).

The average proportion of students who achieved “needs additional support” was 10.3%. This dropped from Year 3 (11.3%) to Year 5 (8.7%) and increased in Year 7 (10.2%) and Year 9 (11.1%).

In numeracy, the average proportion of students who achieved “exceeding” and “strong” was 65.5%. This increased from Year 3 (63.5%) to Year 5 (67.8%) was relatively stable in in Year 7 (67.2%) and then dropped in Year 9 (63.4%).

The average proportion of students who achieved “needs additional support” was 9.5%. This dropped from Year 3 (9.7%) to Year 5 (8.6%) and increased in Year 7 (9.4%) and Year 9 (10.4%).

Like last year, more Indigenous students and students in very remote schools were identified as “needs additional support” than their peers.

For example, in reading, across all year groups, around one in three Indigenous students are in the “needs additional support” level, compared to about one in ten non-Indigenous students.

Recent changes

This is only the second year of the current NAPLAN system.

Early last year, the testing window was moved from May to March. In 2023, NAPLAN was also done entirely online for the first time.

There was also a major change in how NAPLAN is reported. Now, results are reported against four proficiency levels instead of ten.

How did these changes affect the 2024 results?

It was possible such big changes could have created years of instability, but this hasn’t been the case so far.

This lack of change in the results can be interpreted a couple of ways. The Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority chief executive Stephen Gniel said the results are a “testament to the hard work” of schools and students.

Not only have NAPLAN changes been difficult to navigate, we cannot forget the impact of COVID on student learning. Teachers have had a tremendous responsibility to help students return to a sense of normal in the past two years.

Education Minister Jason Clare, however has a different interpretation. As he said:

We have a good education system, but it can be a lot better and a lot fairer and that’s what these results again demonstrate.

These results provide another year of evidence our system is fundamentally unfair and too many children are being left behind.

Who ‘needs additional support’?

One advantage of the new proficiency levels is they explicitly tell us how we should respond to the results.

This is not new information. Year after year students from more advantaged backgrounds perform higher on tests like NAPLAN. We also know inequitable access to resources is a major factor in these results.

What is new is these results themselves tell us what to do: “provide additional support”.

How can we do this?

Last month, the federal government released released details of the next funding agreement for Australian schools, due to start in 2025.

As part of this, Clare announced A$16 billion of federal funding for public schools. This funding is only available if schools implement significant changes, including phonics and numeracy checks in the early years, evidence-based teaching and catch-up tutoring.

Clare has said he wants this money to make a difference to “the kids who really need it”.

We know government schools have not received adequate funding, as promised by previous reforms.

As the next phase of school funding in finalised this year, governments should ensure schools with large proportions of disadvantaged students receive the support they need to help all Australian students succeed.

Jessica Holloway has received funding from the Australian Research Council.

– ref. NAPLAN results again show 1 in 3 students don’t meet minimum standards. These kids need more support – https://theconversation.com/naplan-results-again-show-1-in-3-students-dont-meet-minimum-standards-these-kids-need-more-support-236688

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Hughes, Lecturer, Research School of Management, Australian National University

If anything is a sure bet right now, it’s corporate Australia’s willingness to use some variation of the “for society’s good” argument.

The most recent example of this is the claim being made, including by federal minister Bill Shorten, that an outright ban on gambling advertising would be disastrous for free-to-air TV.

To be clear, Labor still supports new restrictions on gambling advertisements, including hourly caps and bans during kids’ TV and during and around sports broadcasts.

But it has rejected the idea of a total ban, prompting a backlash extending as far as some of its own backbench MPs.

Speaking on ABC’s Q&A on Monday night, Shorten said Australia’s free-to-air TV broadcasters were in “diabolical trouble”, with many needing gambling ad revenue “in order just to stay afloat”.

“I’m not convinced that complete prohibition works,” he said.

So would our commercial TV networks really fall over tomorrow without gambling ad revenue? Or is something else at play?

Read more:
The government is under pressure to ban gambling ads. History shows half-measures don’t work

Who is buying ads in Australia?

Let’s start by building a bigger picture of where advertising spend more broadly comes from in Australia. Global analytics firm Nielsen regularly compiles top 20 lists of both the categories and individual companies spending the most on ads here.

In 2023 the top category, retail, accounted for A$2.56 billion in advertising spend. Gambling and gaming, in contrast, represented just $239 million, less than a tenth of this figure.

Harvey Norman topped the list of individual companies in 2023. The first we see of any gambling brand is Sportsbet, which came in at 16th.

For gambling companies, it’s fair to assume the lion’s share of this goes to TV. Research by the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) found 68% of gambling companies’ ad spend went to free-to-air TV markets.

As for the remainder, 9% went to radio, 15% to social media and 8% to other online platforms.

How much is actually getting spent?

But how do we estimate the gambling industry’s total annual advertising spend? There are certainly a lot of numbers getting thrown around.

One source put it at $300.5 million for 2022.

More recently, ACMA published detailed figures for the period between May 2022 and April 2023 which put it at just over $238 million, with $162 million of this going to free-to-air TV networks.

But the way advertising is classified – what defines an advertisement – can sometimes differ between agencies. Then there is the number of brands operating, which is constantly changing.

In a market with so many competitors, any new entrant needs to spend big on advertising just to capture enough market share to be viable.

This is why I argue that the actual figure for financial year 2023 may be slightly higher than ACMA’s widely quoted figure, accounting for the big ad spend of new entrants that may have fallen outside the time window assessed.

Based on average company ad spend as a percentage of revenue and the size of the gambling industry, I estimate it could be higher, in the ballpark of $275 million.

How much is that to the networks?

This exercise is all about putting these figures in context.

Channel Seven, for example, brought in $1.5 billion in revenue in 2023. Even if it had received the gambling industry’s entire ad spend at my higher estimate of $275 million, this would still only account for less than 20% of its annual turnover.

If that money all went to TV ads, Channel Seven’s stated 38.5% share of television advertising revenue would put its revenue from the estimated sports betting advertising at about $106 million in this example, around 7% of its total annual revenue.

Losing most of that would hurt, but wouldn’t mortally threaten the business.

A total ban would most likely be phased in over a number of years, not enacted overnight.

Australia’s free-to-air networks would adapt, restrategise, and find and develop new markets to replace that revenue. Their management teams are far too smart to just shrug their shoulders and take a revenue hit on the corporate chin.

Networks have had plenty of time to adapt

Just a refresher. LinkedIn is now more than 20 years old. Facebook is 20. YouTube is 19. X (formerly known as Twitter) is 18. TikTok is seven.

If free-to-air TV’s business model is so glacial it can’t function in the digital age, it probably doesn’t deserve to be operating in the big leagues.

Digital is here and has been for a while now. The media industry has borne the brunt of this change, but has also had the most time to adapt to the disruptors, who are now more established oligopolies and duopolies than “cool start-ups” out of Silicon Valley.

The argument that we need to protect sports gambling ads to protect the big media brands – has little to no basis. It’s a worn out argument we’ve seen time and time again – big tobacco, I’m looking at you.

Protecting the interests of corporate Australia at the cost of society itself is a gamble none of us should be prepared to take.

Andrew Hughes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Does free-to-air TV really need gambling ads to survive? – https://theconversation.com/does-free-to-air-tv-really-need-gambling-ads-to-survive-236686

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nelson Ma, Associate Professor, corporate governance, innovation, University of Technology Sydney

With reporting season in full swing, many ASX-listed companies are releasing their financial results to the market.

These results are used to cast judgement on the performance of the company, led by the chief executive officer (CEO). Amid all the information released by the company, there is one figure all eyes will fixate on – earnings.

The earnings figure will have wide-ranging impacts on company employees, investors, and everyday Australians who have their superannuation invested in the stock market.

Despite its importance, the financial reporting process that goes on behind the scenes to decide the earnings figure is hidden to those outside the boardroom.

The hidden process in financial reporting

Financial reporting is a complex process that involves millions, if not billions, of company transactions summarised into one earnings figure. While the concept of earnings is straightforward, the choices made in calculating them are anything but simple.

At face value, earnings are the difference between what a company receives from customers for delivering a good or service and what it costs the company to deliver that good or service.

However, behind the figure are many choices the company makes about which accounting policies to use. This includes deciding how long an asset will last or how many customers will not pay their debts to the company.

These decisions can result in major changes to the earnings figure.

Boardroom power play

Typically, investors benefit from higher stock values when their companies report higher than expected earnings.

Often, the other big winner is the CEO. CEOs regularly receive large bonuses when earnings exceed performance targets set by the company. This is designed to motivate CEOs to improve company performance.

However, academic research reveals some CEOs will engage in disturbing action to meet performance targets.

Instead of driving genuine performance improvements, the pressure faced by CEOs to meet targets often results in them pushing for accounting policies that inflate earnings.

There are safeguards to maintain checks and balances on the CEO. The board of directors is responsible for overseeing CEO decision-making to protect investor interests.

But some CEOs have power over the board of directors, and have the ability to push back on restrictions on their decision making.

CEO power isn’t just about charisma or leadership style. It’s about the ability to influence key decisions, particularly in financial reporting.

When a CEO wields excessive power — due to long tenure, significant ownership, or close personal ties to the board — they can inflate earnings to present a more favourable picture of the company’s performance than reality warrants.

The audit committee: a critical safeguard

A key safeguard against this is the audit committee – a group within the board of directors. Members of the audit committee monitor the financial reporting process used in generating earnings to protect the interests of investors.

However, our research examining more than 2,500 US companies across 12 years uncovers a troubling trend about how CEOs reduce the effectiveness of the audit committee.

Powerful CEOs appear to influence the decision of who serves on the audit committee. These CEOs often favour committees which provide weaker monitoring – resulting from less knowledge of accounting or a lack of authority to question the CEO.

CEOs also prefer audit committee members to be people with whom they share close personal ties. This may include members who attended the same university or have membership at the same golf club.

The consequences of a powerful CEO having a “weaker” audit committee? Earnings are more likely to be inflated to meet performance targets.

Measures to avoid conflicting interests

In Australia, there are some protections against this corporate manoeuvring.

The ASX Corporate Governance Principles recommend separating the roles of CEO and board chair, having boards where most directors are independent of the company, and ensuring audit committees have the relevant qualifications and experience.

However, our research suggests these measures are not enough to protect investors’ interests. While recommendations promote safeguards to limit direct conflicts of interest, they fall short of dealing with the root cause – CEOs wielding excessive power over their colleagues.

This issue is exemplified in the case of Qantas where the board of directors failed to challenge the decisions made by former CEO Alan Joyce.

Importantly, Alan Joyce exerted power over the board of directors, controlling key decisions and often disregarding the input of the board of directors.

What’s needed

In companies there is a power struggle to influence key accounting decisions about earnings.

Although there are safeguards, our research points towards CEO power being a threat to the effectiveness of those safeguards protecting the integrity of the earnings figure and other accounting information.

Investors and individuals involved with companies should take the earnings figure with a grain of salt.

This should especially be the case when the company has a CEO who holds outsized influence. Such awareness is crucial in helping to protect the interests of investors and all Australians dependent on the stock market for their financial wellbeing.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Earnings announcements at an AGM can reflect a corporate power play, not necessarily a company’s true value – https://theconversation.com/earnings-announcements-at-an-agm-can-reflect-a-corporate-power-play-not-necessarily-a-companys-true-value-236580

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steve Macfarlane, Head of Clinical Services, Dementia Support Australia, & Associate Professor of Psychiatry, Monash University

There was disagreement on social media recently after a story was published about an aged care provider creating “fake-away” burgers that mimicked those from a fast-food chain, to a resident living with dementia. The man had such strict food preferences he was refusing to eat anything at meals except a burger from the franchise. This dementia symptom risks malnutrition and social isolation.

But critics of the fake burger approach labelled it trickery and deception of a vulnerable person with cognitive impairment.

Dementia is an illness that progressively robs us of memories. Although it has many forms, it is typical for short-term recall – the memory of something that happened in recent hours or days – to be lost first. As the illness progresses, people may come to increasingly “live in the past”, as distant recall gradually becomes the only memories accessible to the person. So a person in the middle or later stages of the disease may relate to the world as it once was, not how it is today.

This can make ethical care very challenging.

Is it wrong to lie?

Ethical approaches classically hold that specific actions are moral certainties, regardless of the consequences. In line with this moral absolutism, it is always wrong to lie.

But this ethical approach would require an elderly woman with dementia who continually approaches care staff looking for their long-deceased spouse to be informed their husband has passed – the objective truth.

Distress is the likely outcome, possibly accompanied by behavioural disturbance that could endanger the person or others. The person’s memory has regressed to a point earlier in their life, when their partner was still alive. To inform such a person of the death of their spouse, however gently, is to traumatise them.

And with the memory of what they have just been told likely to quickly fade, and the questioning may resume soon after. If the truth is offered again, the cycle of re-traumatisation continues.

A different approach

Most laws are examples of absolutist ethics. One must obey the law at all times. Driving above the speed limit is likely to result in punishment regardless of whether one is in a hurry to pick their child up from kindergarten or not.

Pragmatic ethics rejects the notion certain acts are always morally right or wrong. Instead, acts are evaluated in terms of their “usefulness” and social benefit, humanity, compassion or intent.

The Aged Care Act is a set of laws intended to guide the actions of aged care providers. It says, for example, psychotropic drugs (medications that affect mind and mood) should be the “last resort” in managing the behaviours and psychological symptoms of dementia.

Instead, “best practice” involves preventing behaviour before it occurs. If one can reasonably foresee a caregiver action is likely to result in behavioural disturbance, it flies in the face of best practice.

Read more:
When someone living with dementia is distressed or violent, ‘de-escalation’ is vital

What to say when you can’t avoid a lie?

What then, becomes the best response when approached by the lady looking for her husband?

Gentle inquiries may help uncover an underlying emotional need, and point caregivers in the right direction to meet that need. Perhaps she is feeling lonely or anxious and has become focused on her husband’s whereabouts? A skilled caregiver might tailor their response, connect with her, perhaps reminisce, and providing a sense of comfort in the process.

This approach aligns with Dementia Australia guidance that carers or loved ones can use four prompts in such scenarios:

• acknowledge concern (“I can tell you’d like him to be here.”)

• suggest an alternative (“He can’t visit right now.”)

• provide reassurance (“I’m here and lots of people care about you.”)

• redirect focus (“Perhaps a walk outside or a cup of tea?”)

These things may or may not work. So, in the face of repeated questions and escalating distress, a mistruth, such as “Don’t worry, he’ll be back soon,” may be the most humane response in the circumstances.

Different realities

It is often said you can never win an argument with a person living with dementia. A lot of time, different realities are being discussed.

So, providing someone who has dementia with a “pretend” burger may well satisfy their preferences, bring joy, mitigate the risk of malnutrition, improve social engagement, and prevent a behavioural disturbance without the use of medication. This seems like the correct approach in ethical terms. On occasion, the end justifies the means.

Steve Macfarlane works for Dementia Support Australia, a service led by HammondCare.
He is a member of the Royal Asutralian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists

– ref. Is it OK to lie to someone with dementia? – https://theconversation.com/is-it-ok-to-lie-to-someone-with-dementia-236229

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rajeev Varshney, Professor, Food Futures Institute, Murdoch University

Food security is shaping up as one of the biggest challenges we face globally. In some places, access to food has steadily deteriorated in recent years, due to wars, inflation and climate-driven extreme weather. The cost of basic foods such as eggs and vegetables has made news worldwide.

Food price inflation is now ahead of overall inflation in over half the world’s nations. The obvious answer is to grow more crops, especially the energy-dense top six – rice, wheat, corn, potatoes, soybeans and sugarcane.

Unfortunately, it’s getting harder to produce food due to conflict, more extreme weather such as flash droughts and floods and a surge in plant diseases and pests.

For farmers to keep producing in an uncertain future, we need better crops. But much cutting edge agricultural research focuses on improving specific aspects of a plant – better drought resistance, or a better ability to tolerate salt in the soil. This may not be enough to cope with future shocks.

Our research suggests a way to accelerate the creation of stronger crops by drawing on the full genetic strength of crop species.

Crops that don’t stop

Humans have greatly modified the plants which give us the lion’s share of our food, using tools such as selective breeding and genetic manipulation.

But much agricultural research is done in isolation. Researchers dive deep into solving specific problems – how to make wheat resilient against a specific fungus, for example.

The growing challenges to food security across many fronts means a new approach is needed. The changing climate will throw many different threats at our crops. Parts of the world might endure flash droughts while extreme rain floods others. Some pests and diseases will thrive in a hotter world.

That’s why we’re looking to another approach – pangenomics, which attempts to capture every gene a species has access to.

You might think a species has a unified set of genes, but this is not true. Yes, all rice plants have a set of shared genetic sequences. But individual plants and strains have distinct genetic differences too. The pangenome covers all of these.

The idea of a pangenome only emerged in 2005, when microbiologist Hervé Tettelin and his collaborators were looking for a vaccine against the streptococcus bacteria. As they examined different strains, they realised how much additional genetic information was held in them.

It was a breakthrough, and showed how much we missed by focusing closely on a single isolate of a species. Before their discovery, we had assumed an individual of a species carried enough information to accurately represent the genomic content of that species. But this isn’t correct.

This realisation has changed how we see our crops. Rather than trying to perfect a single cultivar (cultivated variety) using only its own genetic package, the pangenome offers a way to reinfuse lost vigour from the wider gene pool.

In 2019, we took the pangenome approach further by considering the entire gene pool of a crop, including its domestic cultivars – and their wild relatives. Many wild relatives of domesticated crops still exist. These plants have huge genetic diversity, and often harbour superior genes or gene variants (alleles) lost to crop plants through domestication and breeding.

We dubbed this approach the “super-pangenome” to recognise the capture of domesticated and wild gene pools.

How can this help shore up food supplies?

For more than 10,000 years, humans have domesticated and selectively bred crops. But wild relatives have thrived over the same timeframe.

There are good reasons these wild relatives have not been domesticated, from poor taste to difficulty of storage to low yields. But what they do have are desirable traits in their genetic code we can identify, isolate and infuse back into the domesticated species.

Once we have genetic data from across a species and its wild relatives, we can begin looking for particularly useful genes. What we’re after are the ones responsible for adapting to or surviving environmental stresses likely to get worse in the future, such as drought, saline soils and extreme temperatures. We can identify genes responsible for disease resistance and determine why certain varieties offer other desirable traits such as better taste or higher yields.

Around the world, a number of promising research projects use this approach, from American researchers using the genes of wild grapes to boost the yield of domesticated grapes to Chinese researchers doing similar work on tomatoes.

We and our colleagues are focused on the humble chickpea, a highly nutritious legume of particular importance to India’s 1.4 billion people. Chickpeas, like other legume crops, take nitrogen from the air and fix it in the soil, which improves fertility and helps offset emissions of nitrous oxide, a lesser-known greenhouse gas.

But chickpeas lack of genetic diversity due to several evolutionary bottlenecks, domestication and selective breeding. This is already causing problems, because low genetic diversity makes species more vulnerable to pests and disease. Chickpea farmers in Western Australia still remember the outbreak of a fungal blight which almost wiped out production in the late 1990s and left the crop unpopular – even while other states expanded exports.

The solution: look to the wild relatives. In the genomes of relatives such as Cicer echinospermum, we found several promising genes which helped resist this fungus.

These genes can now be incorporated into domesticated species through modern approaches – such as genomics-assisted breeding and gene editing – to develop disease-resistant and high-yielding chickpea varieties.

Once we seek out and capture the full gene stock of our most important crops, both wild and domesticated, it will become easier and faster to supercharge these essential plants – and equip them with the genes they need to survive the uncertainties the future holds.

Rajeev Varshney receives funding from the Grains Research & Development Corporation, Australia, for pulses research at Murdoch University.

Vanika Garg receives funding from the Grains Research & Development Corporation, Australia for pulses research at Murdoch University.

– ref. Wild genes in domestic species: how we can supercharge our crops using their distant relatives – https://theconversation.com/wild-genes-in-domestic-species-how-we-can-supercharge-our-crops-using-their-distant-relatives-233437

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Esther Willing, Associate Professor of Hauora Māori, University of Otago

We are being told the health system is in crisis, “on the brink of failure” – spending beyond its budget, waiting times getting longer, suffering from widespread staff shortages.

The government has responded by dismissing the board of Te Whatu Ora (Health NZ) and appointing Lester Levy as commissioner, with the task of reducing “overspending”. Levy himself has called the system “bloated” and said a “reset” is needed.

However, claims of overspending downplay the most significant external contributors to our stressed health system, while attempting to shift the focus internally. We are concerned the overspending narrative may be a precursor to doubt being cast on the viability of the publicly-funded system in general.

Many of the challenges faced by our health system are not unique to New Zealand. Global workforce shortages have been building since the 2000s, affecting most health systems.

COVID-19 exacerbated these trends. Many healthcare workers experienced burnout during the pandemic and left the health system. Many who remain are stressed and overworked.

Workforce pressures combine with a number of other factors: increased demand for health services, ageing populations (of patients and the health workforce), ever-growing treatment options and rising patient expectations, and an increasing prevalence of chronic health conditions needing ongoing, long-term care.

NZ underspends on health

The health systems of most high-income countries are under stress. But by far the biggest local factor contributing to New Zealand’s stressed health system is historical and current underfunding. Rather than overspending, it has been incredibly frugal for a long time.

Throughout the 2010s, just over 9% of the country’s GDP was spent on health, when most comparable countries were spending between 10% and 12%. According to OECD data, in 2020 New Zealand spent the equivalent of US$3,929 per capita on health – far less than Canada (US$6,215) and Australia (US$5,802).

That gap drives salary differences with comparable countries for health workers, exacerbating our workforce shortages as valuable trained staff leave for better pay elsewhere. While there is scope for productivity improvement in parts of the system, any such gains would be small compared to the cumulative extent of past underfunding.

Also important is the two-tiered nature of the New Zealand health system. The 1938 Social Security Act, which created the publicly-funded system, aimed to ensure health services would be free and accessible to all citizens. Now, however, primary health care is not affordable for around one in eight New Zealanders.

The problem goes back to the original compromise between the government and the medical profession. GPs retained the right to operate as private businesses, receiving government subsidies while also charging patients consultation fees. Doctors in public hospitals became salaried, but were allowed to operate a parallel private practice.

Consequently, better-off people could access health services more quickly in the private sector. No government since has been able to shift these arrangements, despite the considerable inequities of access they entail.

Would other funding models work?

For more than 80 years, the basic design of the publicly-funded health system has served us well, even with the two-tiered design flaws. Around 80% of the health system is funded publicly through taxation, a model we share with the UK, Spain and Scandinavian countries.

Given 37% of New Zealanders currently have private insurance, would a greater role for private funding reduce pressure on public funding? International experience tells us no.

The private insurance-based US health system is by far the most expensive in the world, soaking up nearly 18% of GDP. The prices paid by private insurers for health services have increased significantly faster than public parts of the US system.

There is also New Zealand evidence that private insurance can burden the public sector, with acute followup care sometimes required in public hospitals. Private insurers manage the pinch of rising healthcare costs by increasing premiums and tightening eligibility restrictions.

Health systems that rely on funding via private insurance are less accessible, less efficient, less equitable and generally have worse health outcomes. Put simply, market-based healthcare doesn’t deliver the expected benefits of markets, but does generate the expected downsides.

Another alternative to the tax-funded system is social insurance, where employers and employees pay into sickness funds, not unlike New Zealand’s Accident Compensation Corporation.

In countries with social insurance, such as Germany and the Netherlands, the provision of care is predominantly from non-government providers, rather than government-run hospitals. But research has shown there are higher cost pressures in social insurance systems because they are costlier to administer than tax-based systems.

In tax-based systems, rationing due to funding shortfalls is more visible in the form of waiting times and waiting lists. In private insurance-based systems, rationing is based on affordability and is far less visible.

Protecting access and fairness

Addressing the challenges within New Zealand’s health system requires adequate funding, and investment in the people who make up the system itself.

This includes the healthcare workers who take care of us, and the administrative and support staff who make that healthcare possible.

Short-term belt-tightening will most likely deepen the crisis. In the longer term, a viable publicly-funded system is more efficient and effective than the known alternatives.

This requires a policy commitment to actively address the many drivers of the crisis in ways that align with our values of universal access and fairness.

Meanwhile, we will need to have difficult conversations about how we address this underfunding, and how we train and support healthcare workers. Our publicly-funded health system is needed as much now as when it was first set up, to ensure all New Zealanders have access to healthcare when they need it.

Esther Willing receives funding from the Health Research Council.

Paula Lorgelly receives or has received funding from the Ministry of Health, Health New Zealand and the Health Research Council.

Peter Crampton receives or has received funding from the Health Research Council of New Zealand and the Ministry of Health. He is a member of the Public Health Advisory Committee, the Board of Te Tāhū Hauora (Health Quality and Safety Commission), and the Ministry of Health Primary and Community Care Advisory Group. He was a member of the Health and Disability System Review panel.

Tim Tenbensel receives funding from the Health Research Council. He is affiliated with Health Coalition Aotearoa.

Jaime King and Robin Gauld do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. NZ already spends less on health than Australia or Canada – we need proper funding, not ‘crisis’ management – https://theconversation.com/nz-already-spends-less-on-health-than-australia-or-canada-we-need-proper-funding-not-crisis-management-236583

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jack Lucas, Professor of Political Science, University of Calgary

Municipal politicians often argue that local government is the part of the political world where things actually get done. Other levels of government might be plagued by partisan factionalism and ideological radicalism, they like to say, but municipal government continues to chug along, effective but unrecognized.

In municipal politics, the saying goes, there’s no right-wing or left-wing way to pick up the garbage. This makes the people who are elected to municipal office more pragmatic and ideologically moderate than their provincial or federal cousins.

It’s an appealing vision, especially in our politically polarized age. But is it true?

Comparing politicians

As municipal elections loom in the Yukon, the Northwest Territories, Nova Scotia and Saskatchewan this fall, this is a tricky question to answer.

To really understand if municipal politicians are closer to the ideological centre than their provincial or federal counterparts, it’s necessary to compare politicians across all levels of government. It’s rare for politicians in more than one level of government to be included in the same research studies — which is exactly what’s needed to be able to compare across levels.

Fortunately, however, two teams of political scientists have spent the past two years surveying Canadian politicians across all levels of government. These surveys make it possible to actually answer the age-old question: are municipal politicians really ideological moderates?

In a new research article, I combined surveys of provincial and federal politicians (from a project called POLPOP) with surveys of municipal politicians (from a project called the Canadian Municipal Barometer) into a single multilevel mega-survey.

Both survey projects included questions about politicians’ ideological self-understanding — that is, where they place themselves on a left-right spectrum — as well as their policy attitudes.

Policy attitudes

My analysis found that municipal politicians are in fact more likely to think of themselves as ideological moderates. Compared to provincial or federal politicians, municipal politicians tend to place themselves closer to the centre of the left-right spectrum, rather than the extremes.

This is what political scientists call “symbolic” ideology“ — how you think of yourself ideologically — and on this scale, municipal politicians do tend to be more moderate.

But ideology isn’t just about how we think of ourselves. It’s also about our actual policy attitudes. If I have fiercely right-wing views on gun control, immigration, environmental policy and health care, you might reasonably describe me as a “right winger” even if I think of myself as a centrist.

On this second measure — politicians’ actual policy attitudes — I find no important differences among municipal, provincial and federal politicians. When digging into politicians’ views on policy issues like income redistribution, electric vehicle subsidies or euthanasia, it turns out that municipal politicians aren’t any closer to the ideological centre than other politicians.

This means that municipal politicians think of themselves as moderate, but when we measure their actual policy attitudes, they don’t stand out for their ideological moderation.

Read more:
Foreign interference could affect municipal elections, too. Here are 2 ways to reduce it

Genuine non-partisans

There’s a further twist to my findings. In Canadian municipal elections, candidates don’t have to be partisans to get elected; they don’t need to declare themselves as part of the Liberal or NDP or Conservative team.

Many municipal politicians do identify strongly with a political party — some have even been elected to office at the provincial or federal level — but some don’t. In fact, more than a quarter of municipal politicians are genuine non-partisans, with no party affiliation or identity at all.

It turns out that the differences in ideological self-perception between municipal politicians and provincial/federal politicians are driven by these municipal non-partisans. Non-partisanship and ideological moderation go hand in hand: non-partisan local politicians also tend to think of themselves as ideological moderates.

Self-perceptions matter

So even though Canada’s municipal politicians aren’t distinctly moderate in their policy attitudes, many think of themselves as moderates — and the reason for this difference, in large part, has to do with Canada’s distinctively non-partisan municipal elections.

Even if municipal politicians aren’t actually any more moderate than provincial or federal politicians in their policy beliefs, their self-perceptions are still important. They reflect a longstanding norm of ideological moderation in municipal politics — pragmatism, non-partisanship, compromise — which probably shapes how politicians go about their business on council.

But my findings also make it clear that Canadians can’t count on the municipal system to automatically attract more moderate politicians. If Canadians want municipal representatives who are pragmatic, willing to compromise and ideologically moderate, they need to go out into their communities and find them — and then elect them to office.

Jack Lucas receives funding from SSHRC.

– ref. Municipal politicians claim to be ideological moderates. Is it true? – https://theconversation.com/municipal-politicians-claim-to-be-ideological-moderates-is-it-true-236471

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kaylee Byers, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Health Sciences; Senior Scientist, Pacific Institute on Pathogens, Pandemics and Society, Simon Fraser University

Rats are present in almost every city in the world, building their own rat settlements in parallel with human urban infrastructure.

Cities are ideal habitats for rats because they offer everything a rat needs to survive: food, water and harbourage — a place to live. For brown rats, also known as Norway rats, any patch of soil can quickly become a home, and their omnivorous diets allow them to thrive on kitchen scraps, backyard gardens, fruit trees and even waste in our garbage bins and sewer systems.

Several North American cities are considering the use of new contraceptive products to address rat infestations. This effort is commendable as it shows that cities are exploring alternative approaches to more established techniques that are known to cause harms, such as poisons that kill non-targeted wildlife.

However, the use of birth control raises the question: Could reducing rat reproduction be the solution to our rat worries?

Putting rats on birth control

Rat birth control products, packaged as sugary bait, reduce the number of offspring rats produce. Given that rats can have about five litters a year, with an average of four to eight pups in each litter, addressing reproduction is an attractive approach to reducing rat numbers. However, there are three important limitations to such a strategy.

First, not all rats will eat the bait. This is a classic problem of rat management strategies that rely on poison and kill-trapping. Numerous studies demonstrate that even with intensive baiting and trapping programs, there will often be some rats left behind. Once the campaign ends, the surviving rats can once again reproduce, and populations can rebound in as little as four weeks.

Second, rat birth control does nothing to address the reason for why rats are there in the first place. Access to food, water and harbourage create environments conducive to rats, and also determine the number of rats that can survive in an area. By reducing the number of offspring of rats that eat the bait, it may increase the likelihood of survival of the offspring of other rats that do not eat the bait, as well as rats from any neighbouring areas where the bait was not applied.

For this reason, these types of approaches will likely be most successful in situations where the resources available to rats can be simultaneously reduced or removed and the immigration of new rats can be avoided, such as in indoor settings.

Third, focusing solely on reducing the number of rats may not, paradoxically, reduce the harms that people are experiencing. For example, in under-resourced neighborhoods, rats are symbolic of social injustice and neglect.

Our research has found that most rat complaints to the City of Vancouver are actually complaints about situations involving poor environmental hygiene, where rats are invoked by complainants to urge the city to respond. In neither scenario will reducing or removing rats address the ultimate problem.

Diversified approaches

The bottom line is that just as a variety of tools are needed to build a house, so are a variety of tools and approaches required to successfully deliver a rat control program.

In addition to contraceptives, these tools could include enforcing bylaws that enshrine the right of low-income tenants to a healthy living environment. Municipalities could also implement the use of rat-proof garbage containers or schedule more frequent garbage collection.

Other approaches include programs that prevent the accumulation of tree fruit that could serve as a food source for rats and divert those fruits for human consumption. Even rebate programs that support home improvements could be used — research shows that home improvements for energy efficiency also help keep rodents away.

Ideally, rat control tools are best used in the context of a broader program developed, implemented, maintained, evaluated and improved by a diverse set of specialists. In addition to extermination interventions run by pest control professionals, such a program might include: surveillance to quantify rats and rat-related harms to prioritize management efforts and measure their success; policies to provide municipalities with the legislative authority to prevent and address infestations; new waste management systems; or urban planning to ensure that new developments are more resistant to infestations.

A complex issue like rat management is unlikely to be solved by a single approach. By combining a variety of rat management tools, we not only improve our attempts to address rat-related issues, but also increase the overall health and resiliency of urban environments.

Kaylee Byers is co-lead of the Vancouver Rat Project and collaborates with the Chicago Rat Project.

Chelsea Himsworth is co-lead of the Vancouver Rat Project.

– ref. Rat birth control programs may not be the most efficient way to address urban rat infestations – https://theconversation.com/rat-birth-control-programs-may-not-be-the-most-efficient-way-to-address-urban-rat-infestations-234335

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

So certain is the Australian government that childcare workers are being poorly paid that it is handing them an extra 15% – 10% this December, followed by a further 5% in December 2025 – and speaking as if there’s more to come.

It is calling the increases “interim” because it expects the Fair Work Commission to offer at least that much. The commission has begun an investigation into what “early childhood education and care workers” are actually worth compared to workers in other occupations.

They’re not paid as much as most. On a list of the average hourly rates for about 100 occupations prepared by the Bureau of Statistics, child carers are the eleventh lowest. They earn an average of $31.20 an hour – less than receptionists, who get $31.50, less than retail workers on $32, and less than data entry workers on $33.10.

Yet the Fair Work Commission says childcare workers are required to

• provide a nurturing environment and interact with the children in such a way
  that each individual child’s emotional needs are met

• provide environments and experiences which are appropriately stimulating and
  engage with the children in such a way that each child’s cognitive, language and creative development is stimulated

• observe babies and children sensitively and accurately and use a
  developmental analysis of those observations to assist in planning and caring
  appropriately for each child

• plan appropriate programs for individual children and groups of children for all areas of their development and wellbeing

• guide children’s behaviour and manage situations where a child’s behaviour
  is difficult and challenging

• communicate appropriately and sensitively with families in a way that is
  supportive of the child’s well-being and development

The commission has given an indication of what it will do. It says it won’t start its investigation with a “blank slate”. It will piggyback on the research it used to address the undervaluation of aged care work.

That may be a good sign for childcare workers – in March, the commission awarded most aged care workers more than 20%, and some as much as 28.5%.

Why is childcare so poorly paid?

If you guessed that gender was one of the reasons childcare workers are so poorly paid, the commission’s research suggests you’re right. About 96.6% of childcare workers are women. It’s one of the most highly feminised industries there is.

Australian parents come into it too. As childcare customers, we are reluctant to pay too much more.

And when it comes to nurses employed by governments, as taxpayers we seem to be reluctant to pay too much more.

But much of it isn’t deliberate discrimination. The way the commission tells it, much of what has happened to the pay rates of childcare workers – along with nurses, aged care workers and workers in all manner of other highly feminised occupations – is a series of accidents, each building on the other.

Here’s the commission’s potted history of how we got here, which goes back more than a century.

Wages for those with wives and children

The first tribunal to set a so-called “living wage” was the Commonwealth Court of Conciliation and Arbitration in the so-called Harvester decision of 1907.

Sunshine Harvester made grain harvesters at Sunshine, now a western suburb of Melbourne.

Justice Henry Bournes Higgins ruled that even unskilled workers were entitled to live in “frugal comfort”, which he said was enough to allow an unskilled labourer to feed, house and clothe a wife and three children. Skilled workers would get a margin for skill.

Women, often single and not usually needing to support wives and children, got less; in early days about 30% less and later about 25% less.

The 1969 equal pay decision was meant to end that gap. It granted equal pay to women where they were assessed as doing exactly the same work as men.

But women usually don’t do exactly the same work as men. Even today, women are far more likely to be nurses than men, and far more likely to be child carers.

Caring still isn’t seen as ‘equal value’ work

So in 1972, the commission ruled that even women undertaking different jobs than men had to get the same pay rate, so long as the work was of equal value.

Equal value was hard to determine, and for a lot of jobs, it never was. There were a few attempts to link skill levels in feminised industries to the C10 classification in the Metal Industry Award, but they depended on an assessment of skills.

So-called invisible caring skills often weren’t noticed, in part because work similar to nursing and childcare had been traditionally done at home without charge and without training, even though training was later required.

The commission – now called the Fair Work Commission – had shown itself to be slow in updating assessments of the skills required for jobs such as childcare, meaning that female pay has climbed at a snail’s pace relative to men’s for decades.

Four decades ago, the average Australian woman working full time got 82% of what the average man did. Two decades later it was 85%. Last year it was 87%.

What’s being done? And will it be enough?

Responding that glacial change, in 2022 the newly-elected Albanese government rewrote the Fair Work Act to require the commission to “promote job security and gender equality”.

That’s what the commission’s now doing. It is having to do it not only because it has been slow in the past, but also been the ultimate employers have been stingy, forcing childcare workers and nurses to rely on awards.

For childcare workers, the ultimate employers are parents. For nurses, they are largely state governments. Few have been keen to pay over the odds.

The Productivity Commission says the only way to get more workers into childcare is to pay them more, either in our own right as parents, or through our taxes via the government.

There’s little doubt the economy can afford it. Calculations by AMP chief economist Shane Oliver suggest the increase just announced will lift Australia’s overall wages bill by a few tenths of a percentage point.

Figures released Tuesday showed overall wages climbed 4.1% in the year to June, a few points above prices which climbed 3.8%.

A few more points would be welcome, but they wouldn’t contribute to ongoing wage inflation: they would be a one-off correction for an injustice.

If we had it in us, we would help as well. Either as parents or taxpayers, we would pay childcare centres more, so they could pay their workers more. We would act as if their work – nurturing our children – really mattered.

Peter Martin is Economics Editor of The Conversation.

– ref. Why are child carers still paid less than retail workers? And how can we help fix it? – https://theconversation.com/why-are-child-carers-still-paid-less-than-retail-workers-and-how-can-we-help-fix-it-236563

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Toby Murray, Associate Professor of Cybersecurity, School of Computing and Information Systems, The University of Melbourne

On Tuesday, Australia’s minister for government services, Bill Shorten, announced the federal government is developing a new digital identity and credential system. Known as the Trust Exchange (TEx), Shorten said the new system will be “world leading” and represents an “exciting step forward for Australia’s digital infrastructure”.

But details about the system are scarce. Shorten admitted it is still something of an “abstract concept” at this point. However, we know it will allow people to prove things about themselves (for example, who they are or whether they are over 18) to organisations, while controlling how much information they share.

The system could make it much easier for people to access government and business services while keeping better control of their sensitive information.

However, its success will depend on a crucial factor: public trust.

And right now, with the ghost of the Robodebt royal commission findings still very much alive, the public has every right to be distrustful of government technology.

So, how should the government address the potential trust and privacy concerns surrounding its new digital identity system?

Why do we need a new digital ID system?

The Trust Exchange system is related to two other existing government systems: MyGov and MyGovID.

MyGov is the central online portal for accessing Australian government services. It includes the MyGov mobile phone app, which has a wallet feature allowing people to show digital versions of their Centrelink concession or Medicare cards.

MyGovID is the government’s current online digital identity system. It allows you to prove who you are to several online services, including MyGov and a range of other government organisations and agencies. You can, for example, log in to MyGov online using your MyGovID.

The new Trust Exchange system is designed to give people much greater control over what personal digital information they share with organisations.

At present, you can show your digital driver’s license if you are requested to prove your identity when entering a sports club. However, that requires you to share not only your age but also your name and street address with club staff.

The new system would allow you to prove that you are over 18 by using your mobile phone, without having to share any other information about yourself.

If successful, the new system could reduce the need for companies to collect and store so much sensitive identity information about their customers.

It therefore holds significant promise in an age in which sensitive data breaches, like those that hit Optus and Medibank in 2022, seem to be an almost everyday occurrence.

Public trust is vital

However, for the Trust Exchange system to succeed, the public will need to have trust in the security and privacy of the system.

The minister has said businesses will be able to trust the information in the system because it will be backed by existing systems like MyGovID.

This makes sense; to create a standard strength MyGovID, you need to upload your valid driver’s license and passport into the MyGovID system. Any business can therefore trust the information you share with it via TEx really is genuine.

However, this raises the obvious concern about how the new system itself will be secured.

At the moment, MyGovID is used by relatively few organisations. However, the Trust Exchange system looks to have much more ambitious goals: to become the de facto method for Australians to prove things about themselves to companies, venues and government agencies.

If that happens, accounts will be exposed to far higher risk of hacking than MyGovID currently is.

Less obvious are potential privacy concerns.

Will MyGov wallets contain a record of each time we prove our age to purchase alcohol? What about to enter adult establishments? Will the government have access to that information? And if so, what will that information be used for?

Finally, it’s not clear whether the government sees the new digital identity system as a means to provide age verification to prevent children from accessing online pornography.

From the government’s perspective, doing so might seem attractive. However, that would raise significant privacy concerns if the system records online interactions.

What can the government do to build public trust?

In the wake of Robodebt, it’s up to the government to assure Australians the Trust Exchange system can be trusted and will keep their sensitive information secure.

This is doubly important given Shorten said the system will be opt-in rather than mandatory.

The government should act now to reassure the public it will protect their privacy and security.

This will require carefully explaining what information the system will and will not collect about individuals, who will have access to that information and how it will be secured.

Crucially, the Trust Exchange system should be designed to limit how much information it records about the organisations individuals interact with. Ideally, it would record none at all. If this information is recorded, the government must carefully explain why that collection is necessary.

In the absence of this kind of careful consideration and explanation, the public will have every right to remain sceptical of this technology.

Toby Murray receives research funding from the Department of Defence. He is the Director of the Defence Science Institute, which receives funding from the state governments of Victoria, Tasmania and the Commonwealth government.

– ref. The government is developing a new digital ID system. It must first gain the public’s trust – https://theconversation.com/the-government-is-developing-a-new-digital-id-system-it-must-first-gain-the-publics-trust-236689

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samantha Thomas, Professor of Public Health, Deakin University

With parliament sitting this week, the federal government is trying to finalise its proposed laws to limit gambling advertising.

The current proposal is a partial ban, with limits to ads during general TV programming. Previously, a parliamentary committee, chaired by late Labor MP Peta Murphy, unanimously recommended banning gambling ads entirely.

The betting industry, unsurprisingly, doesn’t want a full ban. Speaking on ABC Radio, the chief executive of Responsible Wagering Australia (the peak body for the industry), Kai Cantwell, argued bans push gamblers to illegal offshore services. He said this has already happened in parts of Europe. He also rejected suggestions advertising was normalising gambling to children.

But is that true? What does the evidence say about ad bans like this?

Marketing is key

The gambling industry is one of the most innovative health harming industries of modern times. The evidence about the harms from gambling is clear. They include relationship breakdown, physical ill-health, job loss, debt, crime, homelessness, family related violence and suicide.

Technological advances have enabled the industry to develop sophisticated and instantly accessible products. They promote these products using novel marketing strategies that are able to rapidly target individuals through different media channels, including TikTok. The industry is driven by highly profitable and powerful companies, including those who legitimise and facilitate gambling, such as broadcasters and sporting codes.

For the gambling industry to make money, people have to lose. This is also why a continuing customer base is necessary. Marketing is core to the industry’s business model, creating pathways to new products and brands.

As companies compete to spruik their products, children and young people are exposed to saturation gambling marketing in their everyday lives. Evidence from multiple countries shows that marketing is doing its job – contributing to the normalisation of gambling for young people, promoting brand recognition and recall and shaping positive perceptions of gambling. It’s also creating a perception that gambling has limited risk attached to it. As one 11-year-old told us:

When kid’s get to 18, they will want to bet all the time.

Of course the gambling industry disagrees with these conclusions. When asked if he thought that gambling had become normalised for children in recent years, Cantwell said no.

He agreed more could be done to ensure that children were not targeted by advertising, but went on to state that it was the illegal offshore market that was “advertising very heavily towards children and young people”. Cantwell said Australian providers were working with government to ensure that children were not targeted by advertising.

That work doesn’t appear to be preventing children from being exposed to gambling marketing everywhere they go. Sportsbet and the TAB are commonly recalled brand names among young people. Young people have also told us they would bet with a particular brand because of familiarity, they liked the advertisements, or that they had seen a company promote deals or offers. One said:

Sportsbet, because if you bet with them you can get your money back.

What did the inquiry find?

This is why the recent parliamentary inquiry unanimously recommended the need for strong regulatory action on gambling advertising. It proposed legislation to phase in a blanket ban on gambling advertising, with a fundamental aim of protecting children. These calls have been backed by numerous Australian politicians and many others who have stressed that partial bans will only ever get partial results.

Read more:
The government is under pressure to ban gambling ads. History shows half-measures don’t work

It is perhaps not surprising that gambling companies, and those that profit from gambling, strenuously oppose significant restrictions on gambling marketing. They use a range of strategies to delay, distract, and deflect calls for evidence-based regulation that would disrupt pathways to their products.

In his interview, Cantwell advocated for a “balanced, nuanced approach” and “sensible reforms”: in other words, nothing that would cause the industry any discomfort. He also stated a blanket ban on advertising would “run the risk of driving Australian consumers into online illegal offshore providers”.

However, experts have cast doubt on these claims. A focus on protecting young people overshadows any claims about the impact of advertising restrictions on driving people to unregulated markets. Financial counsellors, who are at the forefront of helping those recover from gambling related harms have said:

In financial counselling casework, we observe that the dominant harm comes from those licensed in Australia [who can advertise heavily]. We observe only a very small amount of gambling with the unregulated, overseas operators […]

The parliamentary inquiry also looked closely at illegal offshore gambling. They cited evidence from the regulator in Spain. The gambling industry, television and advertising sectors lobbied against reforms there too. After implementing advertising restrictions, the regulator found:

None of the dire predictions have occurred […] The TV stations said that they would go broke without gambling revenue and this has not happened […] Spanish sports teams said that they wouldn’t be competitive if they were the only ones not allowed sponsorship, and this hasn’t happened either […] The threat of gamblers migrating to illegal operators had not occurred either.

The inquiry acknowledged that continued action on illegal offshore gambling was an important part of preventing gambling harm. It is worth noting that since November 2019, the Australian Communication and Media Authority (ACMA) has actively blocked 995 illegal offshore gambling and affiliate websites.

While there will always be means for some determined people to access these sites, increased resourcing for the regulator would help ensure people are prevented from accessing them where possible.

In her foreword to the parliamentary inquiry report, Peta Murphy thanked those with lived experience of gambling harm who had testified to the inquiry. She stated:

It took incredible courage and strength for you to come forward, and it is your experiences, described in your own words that have provided the foundation for this report and its recommendations.

We now wait to see if the government will show the political courage and strength to go up against powerful vested interests.

Samantha Thomas has received research funding from the Australian Research Council Discovery Grant Scheme, the Victorian Responsible Gambling Foundation, Healthway and the New South Wales Office of Responsible Gambling. She is a board member for the International Confederation of Alcohol, Tobacco and other Drug Research Associations (ICARA). She is the Editor in Chief for Health Promotion International.

– ref. The gambling industry is pulling out all the stops to prevent an ad ban, but the evidence is against it – https://theconversation.com/the-gambling-industry-is-pulling-out-all-the-stops-to-prevent-an-ad-ban-but-the-evidence-is-against-it-236679

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steven Tingay, John Curtin Distinguished Professor (Radio Astronomy), Curtin University

Launched in 2011, NASA’s NEOWISE mission operated in Earth’s orbit until late last week. It detected more than 3,000 near-Earth objects or NEOs – asteroids or comets whose orbits can bring them close to Earth, even with the possibility of a collision. NEOWISE was shut down on August 8.

Surveying the population of NEOs is central to the emerging concept of planetary defence. That is, understanding and mitigating the risk of collision from asteroids large enough to do significant damage to Earth.

NEOWISE has made fundamental contributions to establishing the knowledge base for planetary defence, with more than 200 of the 3,000 objects it studied not known to us previously.

Now at mission end, and commanded by NASA to shut itself down, NEOWISE will re-enter Earth’s atmosphere before the end of this year. Where does that leave us with defending our planet?

From astrophysics to planetary defence

NEOWISE started life as a different mission, simply called WISE (Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer). It was designed to study the infrared radiation from distant galaxies in the universe.

Infrared means “beyond red” – infrared light sits just past the red end of the spectrum of colours humans can see. We know infrared radiation better as the heat from the Sun, for example, or from a radiator keeping us warm in winter.

When the coolant on the WISE mission ran out and these sensitive observations of galaxies couldn’t be carried out any more, NASA granted a mission extension under the NEOWISE name. They realised the telescope system was still sensitive enough to detect asteroids and comets that come close to Earth and the Sun, thereby having a very strong infrared signal.

NASA has an extraordinary history of squeezing extra life out of missions that reach completion. In this case, NEOWISE represented an entire second life, in an entirely different area of research.

How will we defend Earth now?

As well as the discovery and study of thousands of NEOs, NEOWISE established the foundation of knowledge that has informed a new, dedicated planetary defence mission. NASA’s NEO Surveyor will be launched in 2027.

NEO Surveyor’s goal is to discover approximately two thirds of all NEOs larger than 140 metres in diameter, over a five year baseline survey. This is a big step toward fulfilling the mandate United States Congress has provided to NASA: to discover 90% of all NEOs in this size range.

If they hit Earth, asteroids of this size could cause mass casualties if the impact were over a large metropolitan region.

You might think this poses a bit of a risk – shutting down NEOWISE three years before launching NEO Surveyor. What happens if one of these big asteroids comes our way in the next few years?

The risks are very small, as estimates show asteroids 140 metres in diameter impact Earth only approximately every 20,000 years. So, we would have to be extremely unlucky to have one in any given three-year period, especially impacting a place that would cause a large amount of damage. Only around 3% of Earth’s surface is occupied by urban areas.

Read more:
‘City killers’ and half-giraffes: how many scary asteroids really go past Earth every year?

NASA doesn’t really have much of a choice with the end of NEOWISE. The Sun’s 11-year activity cycle is picking up and causing Earth’s upper atmosphere, the ionosphere, to thicken. NEOWISE is flying through this ionosphere and can’t raise its orbit, so the ionosphere is inevitably dragging NEOWISE back to Earth.

NEO Surveyor started construction in 2023, so a 2027 launch is pretty impressively rapid, which is minimising the gap between NEOWISE and NEO Surveyor.

NEOWISE is scheduled to enter Earth’s atmosphere before the end of the year, but we don’t know precisely when.

Weighing almost 700kg, some of NEOWISE itself is likely to impact the surface of Earth. Hopefully it stays away from populated areas in the process – some recent re-entry events have resulted in space debris falling reasonably close to populated areas.

An asteroid is coming! What next?

Knowing about an asteroid on a collision course with Earth is one thing. Doing something about it is another thing altogether.

Huge steps toward planetary defence occurred two years ago, when the DART mission flew to an asteroid, impacted it, and changed its trajectory. This demonstrated it’s possible to change the course of asteroids, which could be used in the future to protect Earth from a collision.

Read more:
NASA’s asteroid deflection mission was more successful than expected. An expert explains how

Predicting potential Earth impacts as far as possible in advance, years preferably, gives the DART-style technology approach a chance.

The pioneering work of NEOWISE, and the upcoming comprehensive observations of NEO Surveyor, will place an enormous amount of information in our scientific bank, which will never go out of date and will be the basis for planetary defence for perhaps hundreds of years into the future.

Steven Tingay is affiliated with the Australian Labor Party.

– ref. NASA just shut down a planetary defence mission that tracks asteroids. Now what? – https://theconversation.com/nasa-just-shut-down-a-planetary-defence-mission-that-tracks-asteroids-now-what-236515

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kylie Walker, Visiting Fellow, National Centre for the Public Awareness of Science, Australian National University

The Australian government has updated the nation’s science and research priorities, and released a National Science Statement. This marks the first wholesale update on Australia’s vision and plan for the future of science and technology in nearly a decade, with the last set of priorities being handed down by the Abbott government in 2015, and the last science statement in 2017.

Minister for Industry and Science Ed Husic has announced five key priorities:

• transitioning to net zero
• support for healthy and thriving communities
• elevating Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander knowledge systems
• protection and restoration of Australia’s environment
• building a secure and resilient nation.

Given the policy impact of these commitments, it’s worth examining what they mean – and how they should guide Australia’s progress on a number of fronts.

1. Transitioning to a net zero future

While Australia’s emissions per person have been falling, we still emit more than double the carbon dioxide of comparable countries such as the United Kingdom or New Zealand.

Australia is a research leader in battery technology, solar cell technologies and green metals. However, our overall investment in clean energy research, already behind our peers, is falling.

Focused investment in green energy research is needed to cut emissions in hard-to-decarbonise sectors, such as air transport and agriculture.

2. Supporting healthy and thriving communities

Australia is a world leader in medical discoveries – anyone who’s been given the “green whistle” pain reliever by paramedics has felt the effects of Australian medical research. But too often Australian discoveries don’t stay here for development.

Researchers often find they need to move their discoveries to the United States or the European Union to get them into production and into hospitals, ambulances and pharmacies.

Australian health and medical researchers need more support to apply and commercialise their findings here at home. More work is also needed on preventative care, so we can stop illnesses before they start.

Of course, “thriving communities” need more than the best available medical care. They also need connection and resilience. This too can be supported by research – such as findings that show what helps communities bounce back after devastating bushfires.

3. Elevating Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander knowledge systems

Historically, and to everyone’s detriment, Australia has not done well at recognising, respecting and celebrating the knowledge systems of its First Nations peoples.

But Australia has much to gain by fully embracing Traditional Knowledge as part of its science. This must be done with respect and equity at the forefront: our next steps in weaving together knowledge systems must be led with and bring empowerment to, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples and communities.

One recent example is the collaboration between Nyikina Mangala man John Watson and Professor Ron Quinn, who have been turning bark from the Mudjala tree into natural treatments for severe pain.

4. Protecting and restoring Australia’s environment

Australia’s lands and waters are home to an estimated 700,000 native species. Many of these remain undiscovered and many are at risk of extinction.

The last 20 years has seen threatened plant populations decline by 72%, and populations of threatened mammals and birds fall by 38% and 52% respectively.

We need to stop this decline and protect Australia’s natural inheritance, through science-informed measures such as conservation reserves, controlling invasive species, restoring degraded ecosystems and breeding endangered plants and animals.

5. Building a secure and resilient nation

Security and resilience come in many forms. It means protecting our crucial digital infrastructure from cyber attacks. It also means making sure our buildings, roads and energy systems can survive disasters and a changing climate. Protecting our agriculture from pests and diseases also falls under this heading.

Focusing on this priority means broad investment in research across disciplines, bringing together industry and academia.

So, how do we put these priorities into practice?

To meet these priorities, Australia will need greater investment in science and research across the board. While international collaborations are fantastic, we can’t rely on other countries to do this vital research for us.

We’ll need more highly skilled people to do this research – people bringing unique perspectives, ideas and training with them. That means bringing people into STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) careers from more diverse backgrounds.

Unfortunately, we are still conditioning girls to have lower confidence in science than boys. They’re more likely to avoid subjects such as physics and engineering.

In 2021, only 0.5% of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people had a STEM degree, compared with 4.9% of the Australian population, according to the recent Diversity in STEM Review. This needs to change if we are to advance our science and research priorities.

We’ll also need more long-term investment in research infrastructure, and in STEM education and training.

Making a future in Australia

The national science priorities dovetail with the government’s Future Made in Australia initiatives in modern manufacturing, renewable energy and more.

Pulling this off will require partnerships between industry, education and governments. To properly harness the ideas and innovations of researchers, we need to make it easy for them to move from academia to industry and back again.

A review of Australia’s research and development funding was announced in this year’s federal budget.

The government could use this to put Australia on a path towards investing 3% of our GDP into Australian research and development – something countries such as the United States, Germany and Japan already do.

Sustained investment in Australian research and development can make the ambitious goals of the new national science statement a reality.

Kylie Walker is CEO of the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering (ATSE) which receives funding from the Department of Education and the Department of Industry, Science and Resources.

– ref. From net zero to Indigenous knowledge, Australia has finally set new science priorities. How can we meet them? – https://theconversation.com/from-net-zero-to-indigenous-knowledge-australia-has-finally-set-new-science-priorities-how-can-we-meet-them-236573

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dylan Gaffney, Associate Professor of Palaeolithic Archaeology, University of Oxford

In the deep human past, highly skilled seafarers made daring crossings from Asia to the Pacific Islands. It was a migration of global importance that shaped the distribution of our species – Homo sapiens – across the planet.

These mariners became the ancestors of people who live in the region today, from West Papua to Aotearoa New Zealand.

For archaeologists, however, the precise timing, location and nature of these maritime dispersals have been unclear.

For the first time, our new research provides direct evidence that seafarers travelled along the equator to reach islands off the coast of West Papua more than 50 millennia ago.

Digging at the gateway to the Pacific

Our archaeological fieldwork on Waigeo Island in the Raja Ampat archipelago of West Papua represents the first major international collaboration of its kind, involving academics from New Zealand, West Papua, Indonesia and beyond.

We focused our excavations at Mololo Cave, a colossal limestone chamber surrounded by tropical rainforest. It stretches a hundred metres deep and is home to bat colonies, monitor lizards and the occasional snake.

In the local Ambel language, Mololo means the place where the currents come together, fittingly named for the choppy waters and large whirlpools in the nearby straits.

Excavation uncovered several layers of human occupation associated with stone artefacts, animal bones, shells and charcoal – all physical remains discarded by ancient humans living at the cave.

These archaeological findings were rare in the deepest layers, but radiocarbon dating at the University of Oxford and the University of Waikato demonstrated humans were living at Mololo by at least 55,000 years before the present day.

Foraging in the rainforest

A key finding of the excavation was a tree resin artefact that was made at this time. This is the earliest example of resin being used by people outside of Africa. It points to the complex skills humans developed to live in rainforests.

Scanning-electron microscope analysis indicated the artefact was produced in multiple stages. First the bark of a resin-producing tree was cut and the resin was allowed to drip down the trunk and harden. Then the hardened resin was snapped into shape.

The function of the artefact is unknown, but it may have been used as a fuel source for fires inside the cave. Similar resin was collected during the 20th century around West Papua and used for fires before gas and electric lighting was introduced.

Our study of animal bones from Mololo indicates people hunted ground-dwelling birds, marsupials and possibly megabats. Despite Waigeo Island being home to small animals that are difficult to capture, people were adapting to using rainforest resources alongside the coastal foods islands readily offer. This is an important example of human adaptation and flexibility in challenging conditions.

Seafaring pathways to the Pacific

The Mololo excavation helps us to clarify the precise time humans moved into the Pacific. This timing is hotly debated because it has major implications for how rapidly our species dispersed out of Africa to Asia and Oceania.

It also has implications for whether people drove Oceanic megafauna like giant kangaroos (Protemnodon) and giant wombats (Diprotodontids) to extinction, and how they interacted with other species of hominins like the “hobbit” (Homo floresiensis) that lived on the islands of Indonesia until about 50,000 years ago.

Archaeologists have proposed two hypothetical seafaring corridors leading into the Pacific: a southern route into Australia and a northern route into West Papua.

In what is today northern Australia, excavations indicate humans may have settled the ancient continent of Sahul, which connected West Papua to Australia, by 65,000 years ago.

However, findings from Timor suggest people were moving along the southern route only 44,000 years ago. Our work supports the idea that the earliest seafarers crossed instead along the northern route into West Papua, later moving down into Australia.

West Papua: an archaeological enigma

Despite our research, we still know very little about the deep human past in West Papua. Research has been limited primarily because of the political and social crisis in the region.

Importantly, our research shows early West Papuans were sophisticated, highly mobile and able to devise creative solutions to living on small tropical islands. Ongoing excavations by our project aim to provide further information about how people adapted to climatic and environmental changes in the region.

We know from other archaeological sites in the independent country of Papua New Guinea that once humans arrived in the Pacific region, they kept venturing as far as the New Guinea Highlands, the Bismarck Archipelago and the Solomon Islands by 30,000 years ago.

It was not until about 3,000 years ago that seafarers pushed out beyond the Solomon Islands to settle the smaller islands of Vanuatu, Fiji, Samoa and Tonga. Their descendants later voyaged as far as Hawaii, Rapa Nui and Aotearoa.

Charting the archaeology of West Papua is vital because it helps us understand where the ancestors of the wider Pacific came from and how they adapted to living in this new and unfamiliar sea of islands.

The authors acknowledge the contribution of Abdul Razak Macap, a social anthropologist at the Regional Cultural Heritage Center in Manokwari.

Dylan Gaffney received funding for this research from the National Geographic Society, the Leakey Foundation, the Royal Anthropological Institute, Magdalene College, the University of Cambridge, Gates Cambridge, the Quaternary Research Association, and the National Environment Research Council UK. The research also received funding from the Max Planck Society and the DFG in Germany.

Daud Aris Tanudirjo is affiliated with Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia, which provides funding, facilities and in-kind support for this West Papua research.

– ref. New evidence from West Papua offers fresh clues about how and when humans first moved into the Pacific – https://theconversation.com/new-evidence-from-west-papua-offers-fresh-clues-about-how-and-when-humans-first-moved-into-the-pacific-231686

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lucy Rouse, PhD Candidate and Casual Academic in English Literatures , University of Wollongong

This piece contains spoilers.

It Ends with Us, by Colleen Hoover, is a novel TikTok loves to hate, gaining a lot of criticism for the stark contrast between its marketing and its subject matter. Marketed – and shelved – as a romance novel, between its pink, floral covers, It Ends with Us is a novel about domestic violence.

On sites like Goodreads, readers call the novel “confronting”, “triggering”, and “NOT romance”, warning future readers the novel is “not what [they] expect”.

The film attempts to rectify the issues of its deceptive categorisation by making some major changes to its marketing. The abuse plot is revealed in the trailer, changing the way viewers will approach the narrative. It Ends with Us becomes a tale of resilience, rather than a romance.

What makes a romance?

Hoover’s 2016 novel follows 23-year-old Lily Bloom and her “too-good-to-be-true” relationship with Ryle Kinkaid, a charming neurosurgeon seven years her senior.

Simultaneously Lily reminisces on her first love, a homeless boy named Atlas, who she has not seen since he was violently bashed by Lily’s abusive father.

Ryle and Lily’s relationship becomes turbulent when Ryle begins getting aggressive in arguments. To further complicate matters, Lily bumps into Atlas.

Ryle’s insecurity simmers, and eventuates in him pushing Lily down a set of stairs and attempting to sexually assault her. After being hospitalised due to the abuse, Lily finds out she is pregnant.

Although only occurring in three chapters, the novel’s violence is shocking, yet strategically obscured. Readers do not know if Lily has been purposely hit, or if it was – as Ryle keeps telling her – “a mistake”.

Hoover showers readers with apologies and steamy scenes between Lily and Ryle following the abuse, reminding readers that the novel is, technically, a romance. Ryle is a stereotypical romantic hero, with his career being its own subgenre of romance fiction.

Readers want a happy ending, and (TikTok critics notwithstanding) are willing to forgive Ryle’s violence to get it.

The novel ends with Lily asking Ryle for a divorce, and, after a time-jump, Lily reunites with Atlas, telling him she is ready to fall in love again.

The largely accepted definition of romance fiction, outlined by the Romance Writers of America, is a narrative with a central love story, and an “emotionally satisfying and optimistic ending”. By this definition, It Ends with Us fulfils the genre.

However, as a novel largely about domestic violence, It Ends with us is far from “satisfying”.

Reworking the narrative

The film takes a more mature approach than the novel by casting 36-year-old Blake Lively as Lily and 40-year-old Justin Baldoni (who also directs) as Ryle.

In the novel, Hoover partly justifies the abuse by the young age of its protagonists. Lily forgives Ryle even after he has hurt her multiple times, which the novel positions as naivety.

The film changes this, instead stressing the difficulty of leaving an abusive relationship.

Baldoni’s aggressive and domineering tone hangs over the film, making Ryle an unnerving character from his first appearance. While Ryle is an intense character in the novel, being described as “an intimidating presence”, his violence is offset by the novel’s position in the romance genre.

Readers do not have to acknowledge his violent tendencies because they believe it will be fixed by the novel’s conclusion.

The film does not allow audiences to justify Ryle’s character. We see the lead up to the abuse unfolding.

Ryle speaks down to Lily, ordering her around. Visually, Ryle overpowers Lily in most scenes, standing over her – a manifestation of the looming violence audiences know is approaching.

These visual cues from Baldoni’s portrayal distance the watcher from the whirlwind relationship between Lily and Ryle.

Ryle’s off-putting nature is starkly contrasted by how the film focuses on Atlas (Brandon Sklenar). When Lily reunites with Atlas, the screen blurs around him and music swells. The narrative was never about Ryle – it was always Atlas.

While the film contains romance, it is not a romance film. The marketing of It Ends With us worked to foreground its violent twist. While watching the film, audiences are not wondering “if” Ryle will hurt Lily, it is a matter of “when” it will happen.

Narratives about domestic violence are essential to understanding and empathising with victims, but authors must handle abuse with sensitivity. While there may be a place for domestic violence in romance stories, It Ends with Us is not an example to follow.

The changes made to the film indicate the novel’s shortcomings. By revealing the novel’s twist in the trailer, hopefully the film will catalyse a change in how we market It Ends with Us, and move the novel from the romance section, into its rightful place in adult fiction.

The National Sexual Assault, Family and Domestic Violence Counselling Line – 1800 RESPECT (1800 737 732) – is available 24 hours a day, seven days a week for any Australian who has experienced, or is at risk of, family and domestic violence and/or sexual assault.

Lucy Rouse receives an AGRTP scholarship from the Australian Government for her PhD studies.

– ref. It Ends with Us was never a romance novel – thankfully the film understands this – https://theconversation.com/it-ends-with-us-was-never-a-romance-novel-thankfully-the-film-understands-this-236492

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Dempsey, Associate professor, University of Canterbury

The coalition government recently announced its plan to reverse a ban on new oil and gas exploration to deal with an energy security challenge brought on by rapidly declining natural gas reserves.

But this assumes, rather optimistically, that repealing the ban will prompt companies to invest in new gas fields.

In practice, those companies will be carefully considering whether there is anyone to sell their gas to, or whether a future government could change the rules again.

Investors don’t love political volatility or market risk, and New Zealand currently has both.

The coming gas crunch

Modelling by the Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) suggests the ban repeal would result in an additional 14 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emitted by 2035.

This estimate is based on an assessment of climate impacts resulting from the policy reversal, compared to a baseline.

The usual baseline used for such assessments was set in 2022 by the Climate Change Commission. But the government argued it was already out of date and instead proposed a different one, with 15% fewer emissions from gas, because the country is running out much faster than expected.

In one sense, New Zealand is perpetually running out of gas. Energy companies estimate how much is left underground and how long that resource will last. At the same time, they are drilling new development wells – $350 million worth between 2016 and 2020 – which adds more gas to the reserves and pushes out the ultimate end date.

What has changed is that all the extra drilling hasn’t turned up much extra gas in the past few years. This is despite record amounts spent on new wells – nearly $1.3 billion between 2020 and 2024. Energy companies now think there’s less gas than previously thought.

It seems the end date is much closer, which is why the government has shifted to a new baseline to reflect less gas (and lower emissions). This is a good result for the climate – but it might not be great for New Zealand’s economy in the near term.

When gas runs low

As an island nation, New Zealand can’t easily import more gas from overseas. There is no pipeline to Australia, and liquefied natural gas terminals are expensive to build.

Macroeconomics tells us that when a resource becomes scarce in a closed market, the following things happen.

First, with a fixed amount of gas to go around, its use has to be prioritised. This means some users might miss out. As it happens, the government has been struggling to renew a contract to supply schools, prisons and hospitals with gas.

Second, when a resource becomes scarce, its price tends to rise. This tracks with the experience of Pan Pac, a forestry owner and processor in Hawkes Bay which reported a three-fold increase in gas costs, from $3 million a year to potentially $9 million at current prices.

Now, some would say the cure for high prices is exactly that: high prices. A gas crunch could ultimately shift demand to other sources such as heat pumps for home and industry. Some of this was subsidised through the previous administration’s Government Investment in Decarbonising Industry Fund.

But until the switch happens, resource scarcity means you can’t produce as many goods, and this could have an effect on GDP. Methanex, a major exporter of methanol produced from natural gas, is a key concern here. Less methanol would mean fewer exports and, potentially, job losses.

Methanex is already operating at reduced capacity, and it recently initiated high court proceedings against Nova Energy, which uses natural gas to produce electricity. Nova cut gas supply to Methanex and the companies disagree on whether their contract allows for this.

Tough decisions ahead

A new gas field could take a decade or longer to find, develop and bring online. At the same time, if there are no new reserves (regardless of whether the government goes through with the repeal of the ban), we can expect gas supply to drop to half within six years, according to MBIE forecasts.

This means there might not be enough gas to simultaneously maintain synthetic (ammonia-based) fertiliser production, peak electricity generation and methanol exports. What should get prioritised?

Ammonia is essential to the farming sector and food production. In the future, we might replace natural gas used to make ammonia with green hydrogen produced from ultra cheap solar. But that’ll take investment and intention.

Methanex exports are worth $800 million a year and the company is a significant contributor to the economy. A transition to a green methanol industry is possible, but would need a huge amount of green hydrogen (made using renewable energy) and green carbon dioxide (sourced from biomass or direct air capture).

This would be transformative to the economy but also take a lot of financial support.

Lastly, we burn a lot of gas to keep heat pumps running in winter when hydro lakes are low. And we almost ran out earlier in the year.

A future energy system with abundant solar, grid-scale batteries and smarter use of hydro storage might avoid this as gas is phased out. The problem is that these solutions cost a lot of money and take time to implement. New Zealand apparently doesn’t have much of either.

David Dempsey receives science funding from MBIE to work on topics related to the energy industry.

Jannik Haas receives science funding from public institutions like MBIE to work on topics related to energy systems and holds clean energy stocks.

Rebecca Peer receives science funding from MBIE to research topics related to energy transitions and future energy systems.

– ref. NZ is running out of gas – literally. That’s good for the climate, but it’s bad news for the economy – https://theconversation.com/nz-is-running-out-of-gas-literally-thats-good-for-the-climate-but-its-bad-news-for-the-economy-235645

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Ambrose, Research Team Leader, CSIRO

Winter is now well upon us, and many of us – especially those living in old homes – are discovering just how draughty they are. In fact, Australia has some of the least air-tight homes in the world.

But there’s good news. New research by CSIRO, which I led, shows Australia’s newly built homes are far less permeable than they used to be.

We tested the air-tightness of 233 new dwellings in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Canberra and Adelaide, and found a significant improvement compared to homes built nine years ago. We also identified where most leaks occur.

Our results show a few simple steps – which we outline below – can dramatically improve the energy performance of a home, and ensure occupants don’t shiver through winter unnecessarily.

What exactly is air-tightness?

Air-tightness refers to the amount of air filtering uncontrolled into or out of a building – such as through gaps or cracks in floors, ceilings and walls, or around windows and doors.

The level of air-tightness is especially important when a home is heated or air-conditioned. The more draughty a building, the greater the energy required to maintain the internal temperature. This can lead to higher energy bills.

In fact, air leaks can cause 15−25% of winter heat loss in buildings.

Draughty homes can also let in dust, pollen and pollutants, affecting the health of occupants. Conversely, a building that is too air-tight – in other words, poorly ventilated – can also lead to problems such as condensation and mould.

Ideally, a building should find the right balance between air-tightness and controlled ventilation.

What we did

We wanted to determine air-tightness levels in new dwellings. They had to be less than four years old and built using typical techniques – which excluded the use of alternative construction materials such as straw bales.

CSRIO commissioned air tightness tests on 105 apartments and 128 detached houses. Before a dwelling was tested, systems such as air-conditioning and extraction fans were turned off. Doors, windows and closable vents were shut.

A fan was used to adjust air pressure inside each dwelling to a set level, ensuring consistency with all homes being tested. Then air flow in and out of the home was measured using specialised equipment.

We then compared the results to similar air-tightness testing CSIRO undertook on 129 new homes in 2015.

What we found

Overall, we found a 65% improvement in the air tightness of newly constructed dwellings in Australia.

In particular, new apartments were well-sealed and recorded the lowest overall average air leakage. Single-storey houses were the next best performing, followed by two-storey houses.

We expected that as dwellings got larger they would become less air-tight, because the increased area creates more opportunity for leaks. The average results show this was generally true.

However, some large homes were very air-tight, while some small homes were leaky.

Although new homes are much less permeable than older homes, air leaks still exist. In two-thirds of apartments and houses, bathroom fans were identified as a leakage point, while sliding glass doors were an issue in 63% of apartments.

Sliding doors were also a major issue in half the houses tested. But the biggest issue in houses was poor or missing door seals. This was identified in 65% of houses tested.

These sources of leaks are also common in older homes.

A few simple tips

There are simple ways to rectify leaks in both new and old homes.

Hoods can often be fitted to existing exhaust fans to stop air passing through unintentionally. Or the fan can be swapped out for one fitted with a “damper”, which closes the fan when it’s not in use.

Sealants can be used to fill gaps in walls, and sealing strips can be fitted around doors and windows. Even the classic door snake will help stop draughts under the door.

Our report also makes the following recommendations:

• air tightness standards to be incorporated into the building code
• a requirement for continuous mechanical ventilation in new dwellings, especially apartments
• the use of “building wraps” – layers of material that seal homes from water and air
• more specific air-tight specifications in the national energy star-rating tool
• develop relevant education resources for the building industry.

Overall, our research shows the air-tightness of new Australian homes is the best it’s been. This is great news.

The above recommendations, if adopted, would help ensure even more Australians enjoy comfortable homes that require less energy and money to run.

Michael Ambrose received funding from the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water to undertake this research project,

– ref. Bathroom fans and sliding glass doors: new research shows how those cold draughts sneak into your home – https://theconversation.com/bathroom-fans-and-sliding-glass-doors-new-research-shows-how-those-cold-draughts-sneak-into-your-home-236242

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The minister for government services, Bill Shorten, will unveil a new initiative that would allow people to have more control over the personal information they share.

The scheme, called the Trust Exchange (TEx), would allow people to verify their identities and credentials based on official information already held by the federal government.

The plan is still in its very early developmental stage.

Shorten will tell the National Press Club on Tuesday that the scheme would mean “sharing only the personal information to get the job done – and in some cases, not handing over any personal information at all.

“It can all be done via the digital wallet on your phone – the TEx technology does the rest.”

In his speech, partially released ahead of delivery, Shorten gives the example of paying for a hotel room. Currently, a person may be asked for a driver’s licence or passport to do this.

“With TEx, instead of handing over those documents and having them taken to the back office to be photocopied, you will scan a QR code on the front desk – or use technology similar to tap-to-pay machine – which digitally shakes hands with your myGov wallet.

“You choose which information to share from your digital wallet and consent to its use.

“You will have a record in your myGov wallet of what you shared and with whom you shared it.”

Shorten says there are numerous advantages of the TEx system:

• a person would give their consent every time their information was shared
• they would choose what information to share
• the shared information would be trusted because of the rigorous privacy and security standards of the system.

A person starting a new job, for example, would be able to verify their identity via myGov or the government digital ID, and then through their wallet, share attributes of their identity with their employer – but only the ones they agreed to.

“It could be date of birth, address, citizenship or visa status, or qualifications, occupational licences or working with children check. You control what details are exchanged.”

In another example, TEx could be used for a person to prove they are old enough to enter a club.

“They’d just hold their phone up to a QR code or tap-to-pay machine, and a digital token will be sent to the club vouching for their identity, and they are over 18.

“None of that information needs to be kept by the club. The token will be a valuable promise to the club but of zero value to a cybercriminal.

“Because the confirmation token will not contain any personal information.”

Shorten says TEx could be used in exchanges between governments and businesses, as well as between consumers and governments and consumers and businesses.

“Whatever the case, online or in person, you choose what is shared, you consent to it being shared and you can trust it is safe.”

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Albanese government developing proposal for new digital ID system to protect personal information – https://theconversation.com/albanese-government-developing-proposal-for-new-digital-id-system-to-protect-personal-information-236603