Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dee Ninis, Earthquake Scientist, Monash University

As locals continue to mourn the loss of more than 2,100 people, a mammoth search and rescue effort is underway in quake-struck Morocco.

The 6.8 magnitude earthquake struck at 11:11 pm on Friday night, local time, with an epicentre in the Atlas Mountains about 75km southwest of Marrakech. The quake shook the northeast African and southwest Mediterranean region, with reports of shaking felt as far away as Oran in Algeria, and Porto in Portugal, at a distance of more than 1,000km.

At a relatively shallow depth of about 20km, “severe” ground-shaking intensities were reported around the quake’s epicentre, where several remote villages are located.

The ground shaking associated with the earthquake resulted in the total collapse of many dwellings near its epicentre, a great number of which were traditional mud brick constructions. Rockfalls and landslides have buried villages in the remote, mountainous region.

There has also been substantial damage to buildings further away, including in Marrakech – a city which houses close to a million people. At the time of publishing this article, at least 2,122 people had been killed and more than 2,421 injured.

Sadly these numbers will probably increase. Significant aftershocks are possible in the weeks and months following an earthquake of this magnitude. These may result in the collapse of buildings which were damaged – but remained standing – during the main shock.

Brittle buildings crumbled from the impact

The earthquake in Morocco occurred as a result of the collision between two tectonic plates: the Nubian tectonic plate (which the country itself sits on top of) and the Eurasian tectonic plate, about 500km north of the epicentre. These two plates converge at a grinding pace of about 4mm-6mm per year.

Slower tectonic rates are naturally more difficult to observe, and produce less frequent earthquakes. And since earthquake hazard estimates are strongly influenced by historical records, it’s often difficult to predict the hazard level in regions which have “low seismicity” and no record of strong earthquakes.

In fact, the recent earthquake is the largest on record for Morocco. Near the epicentral region, the second-largest event on record is the magnitude 5.8 Agadir earthquake which struck in 1960, and during which at least 12,000 lives were lost. It showed that even moderate earthquakes can result in devastating loss of life if buildings aren’t made to withstand intense shaking.

Sobering photos and videos have emerged from Morocco, showing a level of structural damage and destruction that’s hard to comprehend. Close to the epicentre in the mountains, villages with rural dwellings, largely constructed from mud brick and stone, seem to have been pulverised. These types of structures are extremely brittle and essentially provide little, if any, seismic resistance.

In more densely populated areas, including the city of Marrakech, various types of damage can be observed, from small local failures to complete building collapses. Much of this can be linked to structures made from stone and masonry – materials known for their brittleness and limited resistance to the strong horizontal shaking generated by a major earthquake.

Although it’s too early to gauge the full extent of the impact, initial reports suggest some of the city’s historical treasures, including the 12th-century Koutoubia Mosque and the renowned red walls, may have suffered some damage.

Much of the damage observed to new construction appears to be attributed to reinforced concrete frame buildings infilled with brittle, hollow red clay bricks. The mortar holding the bricks together quickly cracks, which greatly reduces the stiffness of the overall structure.

To compensate, the reinforced concrete frame will attempt to resist the large horizontal loads. But without an abundance of carefully-placed reinforcing steel embedded in the concrete (particularly where the beams meet the columns) it’s unlikely such a structure will survive a large earthquake. Other lateral load-resisting systems could be employed, such as walls, but these also require careful steel reinforcements – which increases the cost of construction.

A lack of building codes and regulations

Other reasons behind the extensive damage include poor-quality residential construction and ineffective enforcement of building codes and regulations.

These are the same issues we saw earlier in the year following the Turkey-Syria earthquakes. Unfortunately, poor construction is a recurring theme in places where building materials are generally more expensive than labour costs.

Areas that have more stringent building codes and regulations, and that enforce the use of appropriate building materials, generally weather seismic events better. This is particularly true for regions that also apply simple design philosophies, such as the “capacity design” approach.

In essence, this approach compels engineers to carefully consider how and where damage will occur, enabling certain components of a building to absorb and dissipate energy, while ensuring structure doesn’t collapse. It was this simple design philosophy that can be credited for the impressive performance of most reinforced concrete buildings constructed after the 1980s in Christchurch, New Zealand, during and after the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake.

Some engineers advocate even stricter performance goals, such as aiming for buildings that remain nearly undamaged after an earthquake. But the recent events in Morocco and Turkey serve as a stark reminder there are much more pressing needs – particularly in regions with limited economic growth and an insufficient enforcement of standards.

Read more:
Why are shallow earthquakes more destructive? The disaster in Java is a devastating example

Dee Ninis is employed by the School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment at Monash University, and the Seismology Research Centre. She is Vice President of the Australian Earthquake Engineering Society.

Dr Ryan Hoult is a research fellow at the Université catholique de Louvain (UCLouvain), Belgium. He is a recent recipient of a Marie Curie Postdoctoral Fellowship to investigate new reinforcement materials for improved seismic performance of concrete structures.

– ref. Morocco earthquake: experts explain why buildings couldn’t withstand the force of the 6.8 magnitude quake – https://theconversation.com/morocco-earthquake-experts-explain-why-buildings-couldnt-withstand-the-force-of-the-6-8-magnitude-quake-213245

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

The government has provided another $1 billion for public and community housing to secure a deal with the Greens to finally pass the Housing Australia Future Fund.

After months of stalling, the Greens agreed to pass the legislation through the Senate this week, despite the government refusing to give ground on the minor party’s demand for controls on rents.

During the battle over the fund, a core Labor promise, there were suggestions from the government that its blocking could end up in its eventual use as a double dissolution bill.

The $10 billion fund will provide an annual $500 million for social and affordable rental housing.

The government earlier this year announced $2 billion for social and affordable housing in an unsuccessful effort to secure the Greens’ backing for the legislation. It also gave a guarantee the annual amount from the fund would be at least $500 million, rather than being able to be variable.

Greens leader Adam Bandt said: “Pressure works. Labor said there was no more money for housing this year and we pushed them to find $3 billion”. He said the Greens would continue to push Labor to put an end to what it called “unlimited rent rises”.

“Renters are on the march, and the Greens will be fighting alongside them all the way,” Bandt said.

Greens housing spokesman Max Chandler-Mather said: “Renters have a national voice for the first time”.

“Greens power secured six times what Labor wanted to spend on social housing in a single year for public and community housing, and now we are going to use that power to win a freeze and cap on rent increases.”

The government used question time in parliament to spruik the coming passage of the bill, which already has the support of some of the other Senate crossbench.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Government provides another $1 billion to finally win Greens’ support for long-delayed housing bill – https://theconversation.com/government-provides-another-1-billion-to-finally-win-greens-support-for-long-delayed-housing-bill-213248

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Erica Mealy, Lecturer in Computer Science, University of the Sunshine Coast

Late last week, Google announced something called the Privacy Sandbox has been rolled out to a “majority” of Chrome users, and will reach 100% of users in the coming months. But what is it, exactly?

The new suite of features represents a fundamental shift in how Chrome will track user data for the benefit of advertisers. Instead of third-party cookies, Chrome can now tap directly into your browsing history to gather information on advertising “topics” (more on that later).

In development since 2019, this change has attracted a great deal of controversy, as some commentators have deemed it invasive in terms of privacy.

Understanding how it works – and whether you want to opt in or out – is important, since Chrome remains the most widely used browser in the world, with a 63% market share as of May 2023 (Safari is in second place with 13%).

Wait, what is a cookie?

In 1994, computer engineer Lou Montulli at Netscape revolutionised the way we browsed the internet with his invention of the “cookie”. For the first time, web pages could remember our passwords, preferences, language settings and even shopping carts.

This method was supposed to be a private exchange of information just between a user and a website – what’s known as a first-party cookie. But within two years, advertisers worked out how to “hack” cookies to track users. These are third-party cookies.

You can think of a first-party cookie like a shop assistant who listens to your preferences and is happy to hold your bags or clothes while you make your selection – but only while you are inside their store.

A third-party cookie is like a bug from an old spy movie. It listens to everything in your room, but only shares the info with its allies. The “spy” can place this cookie on other people’s sites, to record what you visit and what data you enter. If you’ve ever wondered how Facebook has served you an ad about something related to a news story you just read, chances are it’s because you have third-party cookies enabled.

Unregulated online tracking and surveillance via cookies were the default until 2018, when the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulations (GDPR) and the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA) were introduced. If you have noticed more pop-ups notifying you of cookies and asking for your informed consent, you have the GDPR and CCPA to thank.

Read more:
Cookies: I looked at 50 well-known websites and most are gathering our data illegally

The first browsers to turn off support for third-party cookies were Apple’s Safari in 2017 and Mozilla’s Firefox in 2019.

But Google is also a major online advertising company, with ads making up 57.8% of Google’s revenue as of 2023. They have been slowest off the mark in turning off third-party cookies in Chrome. With the introduction of the Privacy Sandbox, they now hope to start turning cookies off sometime in 2024.

How is the Privacy Sandbox different from cookies?

The details on how the Privacy Sandbox collection of features works are rather technical. But here are a few of the most important aspects.

Instead of using third-party cookies to serve you ads across the internet, Chrome will provide something called advertising Topics. These are high-level summaries of your browsing behaviour, tracked locally (such as in your browsing history), that companies can access on request to serve you ads on particular subjects.

Additionally, there are features such as Protected Audience that can serve you ads for “remarketing” (for example, Chrome tracked you visiting a listing for a toaster, so now you will get ads for toasters elsewhere), and Attribution Reporting, that gathers data on ad clicks.

In short, instead of third-party cookies doing the spying, the features these cookies enable will be available directly within Chrome.

Is user tracking necessarily bad?

While Google pitches the Privacy Sandbox as something that will improve user privacy, not everyone agrees.

If these features are switched on, Google – one of the world’s biggest advertising companies – is essentially able to listen to you everywhere on the web.

Tracking technology can arguably benefit us as well. For example, it could be helpful if an online store reminds you every three months you need a new toothbrush, or that this time last year you bought a birthday card for your mum.

Offloading cognitive effort, such as reminders like these, is a great way automation can assist humanity. When used in situations where pinpoint accuracy is required, it can make our lives easier and more pleasant.

However, if you are not comfortable with surveillance, the alternative to third-party cookies may not necessarily be the new Privacy Sandbox in Chrome.

The alternative is to completely disable tracking altogether.

What can you do?

If you don’t want your online activities to be tracked for advertising purposes, there are a few straightforward choices.

By far the most private browsers are specialist non-tracking browsers that prioritise no tracking, such as DuckDuckGo and Brave. But if you don’t want to get that nerdy, Safari and Firefox already have third-party cookies blocked by default.

If you don’t mind some useful targeted advertising, you can leave the Chrome Privacy Sandbox settings on.

If you want to adjust these settings or switch them off, click the three dots in the upper-right corner and go to Settings > Privacy and Security > Ad privacy. It’s unclear if toggling these features off will stop Chrome from collecting these data altogether, or if it just won’t share the data with advertisers. You can find out more details about each feature on the Google Chrome Help page.

Lastly, it’s good to remember nothing truly comes for free. Software costs money to develop. If you’re not paying towards that, then it’s likely you – or your data – are the product. We need to revolutionise how we think about our own data and what value it truly holds.

Read more:
The ugly truth: tech companies are tracking and misusing our data, and there’s little we can do

Erica Mealy is member of the Australian Computer Society (ACS) and the Australian Information Security Association (AISA).

– ref. Google Chrome just rolled out a new way to track you and serve ads. Here’s what you need to know – https://theconversation.com/google-chrome-just-rolled-out-a-new-way-to-track-you-and-serve-ads-heres-what-you-need-to-know-213150

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Huw Griffiths, Associate Professor of English Literature, University of Sydney

It is easy to forget that when Oscar Wilde’s The Importance of Being Earnest was first written and performed in February 1895, Ibsen’s A Doll’s House was already 16 years old. Both plays, in different ways, expose the foundations of society (marriage; class; money; property) to searching critique.

Ibsen’s proto-modernism looks forward to a new century of realist scrutiny, as Nora slams the door on convention at the end of his play. But Wilde’s play looks backwards to older comedies of manners and aims for a similar effect by blowing their old, moral assumptions wide apart.

The Importance of Being Earnest is no less radical than A Doll’s House, but it is much more difficult to translate onto the 21st century stage without preserving it in aspic. Director Sarah Giles pulls the trick off with this new Sydney Theatre Company production.

It is fresh, funny and completely joyous. Wilde’s extraordinary script is delivered with sharp wit by an extraordinary cast and placed within a production that exploits the dialogue for its viciously comic potential.

The price of privilege

In one of very few changes, Giles has slightly expanded the roles of the servants in the play. In doing so, she has afforded us the pleasure of some beautifully comic moments from Sean O’Shea as Algie’s butler, Lane, and Gareth Davies as Merriman, servant to Jack.

More than this, however, the main action of the play now sits a little more uneasily alongside our awareness of the price of privilege. We are now conscious of the labour that has gone into the cucumber sandwiches and muffins, elsewhere launched as social weapons in the “Morning Rooms” and manicured gardens.

Helen Thomson’s Lady Bracknell is as brilliant as you’d expect from the phrase, “Helen Thomson’s Lady Bracknell”: imperious, monstrous, and utterly hilarious.

Some genuinely scene-stealing performances come from Megan Wilding as an exceptionally funny Gwendolen and Brandon McClelland as an exuberantly bumbling Jack. Charles Wu manifests Algie, the closest thing to Wilde’s voice in the play, with an elegantly light touch. Melissa Kahraman contributes an energetic and animated Cecily.

This latter performance, together with Wilding’s as Gwendolen, ensure the central act of the play is just as much a hire-wire act as the opening and closing. The middle part of the play focuses mainly on the female characters. When there is not enough attention paid to the casting and performance of Gwendolen and Cecily, it can drag a little. Not here, where their conversation over tea and cake becomes a battleground of wit and barely concealed violence.

The fascinating liar

At the centre of Wilde’s play is, famously, “a handbag”.

Previous comedies of manners, such as Sheridan’s The School for Scandal, and even Wilde’s own earlier play, A Woman of No Importance, always had secrets at the heart of them. Revealing those secrets confirmed society’s moral codes. The School for Scandal even has an adulterous woman hiding behind a screen for much of the action of the play. Her discovery leads to confessions of guilt, repentance and reconciliation.

Wilde’s genius lies in completely overturning the assumptions behind this comic structure while still using its recognisable format. In place of sin, we have a momentary lapse of concentration from a nanny and a misplaced piece of luggage.

Wilde is looking backwards and taking aim at the traditions that have produced his own society as hypocritical.

In some of his other writing, he explained how this overturning of “truth-telling” could bring about a social and artistic revolution. His brilliant essay, The Decay of Lying, written four years before Earnest, lays out an improbable plan for the future:

Bored by the tedious and improving conversation of those who have neither the wit to exaggerate nor the genius to romance […] Society sooner or later must return to its lost leader, the cultured and fascinating liar.

As with society, so with Art which:

breaking from the prison-house of realism, will run to greet him, and will kiss his false, beautiful lips, knowing that he alone is in possession of the great secret of all her manifestations, the secret that Truth is entirely and absolutely a matter of style.

Read more:
Friday essay: in defence of beauty in art

Absurd fragility

In making us slightly more aware of the social “truths” behind Victorian leisure, this production might have run the risk of undermining Wilde’s revolutionary celebration of the cultured and beautiful lie. What it pulls off, instead, is the Wildean effect of revelling in the pleasures of life’s surfaces while still being uncomfortably aware of their absurd fragility.

When the play made its way into print in 1899, four years after a triumphant London run, it did not have Wilde’s name attached to it. Wilde was in exile in Paris, his health destroyed by the two years of penal servitude he was sentenced to for having sex with men.

This high-profile court case heralded a wave of legal homophobia that echoed through the 20th century. He died in 1900, with his (and our) futures crushed by a society over-keen on telling its own “truths”.

Go to this production and stay for its final moments in which one utterly charming piece of stage business hardly redresses the balance of the century of paranoid homophobia following Wilde’s arrest and imprisonment. But it does a very good job of laughing in its face.

The Importance of Being Earnest is at the Sydney Theatre Company until October 14.

Read more:
On sexuality, the law still caters to the norms of public disgust

Huw Griffiths does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Sydney Theatre Company’s new The Importance of Being Earnest: fresh, funny and completely joyous – https://theconversation.com/sydney-theatre-companys-new-the-importance-of-being-earnest-fresh-funny-and-completely-joyous-211906

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Roger Jones, Professorial Research Fellow, Victoria University

This century, Australia has suffered more frequent and more severe bushfires. The Black Summer fires of 2019–20 were the worst on record for the area burned and property loss.

How much climate change has contributed to these increases is a hot topic. Bushfire risk is dialled up by four switches: fuel amount and condition, fire weather and ignition sources. Untangling these various influences is difficult, so the role played by the warming climate is heavily debated.

Fire-weather measures fire risk on a daily basis, while a fire-climate regime measures fire risk over seasonal and longer time scales. Our research shows almost everywhere in Australia is now in a different fire climate than it was just 20 years ago, with falling relative humidity a key factor. Previous research has also identified these sudden jumps in fire danger.

What caused fire climates to shift? Conventional scientific wisdom assumes the climate’s response to increasing emissions is gradual and linear. When rapid change happens, it’s often thought to be due to climate variability. But that’s not what happened here.

Most Australian fire climate regimes have already shifted

Fire weather is calculated using the Forest Fire Danger Index, which takes into account vegetation dryness, windspeed, temperature and relative humidity.

Obtaining reliable long-term records using these measures is difficult, so we used high quality seasonal and annual climate inputs to estimate the annual fire climate for different regions of Australia from 1957–58 to 2021–22.

We tracked changes in this fire danger index over that 64-year period across all states and the Northern Territory. We also looked at distinct sub regions such as southwest Australia. What we found was startling. Rather than a linear increase, fire regimes tracked along a similar line – and then suddenly jumped. For most states and territories, that happened around the year 2000.

There is no evidence for a long-term trend. Instead, the data shows a shift from one stable fire climate regime to another.

We’re already seeing these changes play out. Whenever you see a news article about intense fires in areas not used to fire, that’s likely to be due to a shift in fire climate. Think of the fires devastating Tasmania’s alpine regions in 2016, killing off many old pencil and King Billy pines.

When did these jumps happen?

Here’s when each region shifted from one fire regime to the next.

You can see the shift in the number of days above “high fire danger”.

When we showed this research to Greg Mullins, former Commissioner of Fire & Rescue New South Wales, he said it was

utterly consistent with what firefighters are experiencing worldwide: more frequent, intense, and damaging bushfires that sometimes are impossible to control.

Is it really that bad? Yes.

For instance, what would have been the one in ten bad fire season under the earlier regime (occurring once in ten years) became, on average, a one in two fire season in the second regime.

That means the worst 10% of fire years were now happening every second year.

When we looked at even worse fire years – the worst year in 20 fire seasons – the shift was shocking. On average, we are now seeing these years twice every five years.

Why did fire climates shift so abruptly?

That’s the big question.

To find out, we analysed all the available input variables for regime shifts and tested their influence on the results. We found wind speed was not a factor. Changes in rainfall had little effect.

So what was it? We found the main driver was relative humidity in combination with higher daily temperatures during the fire season. Recently, we examined global humidity data and found large-scale downward shifts in humidity. In the Southern Hemisphere, that happened in 2002. In the Northern Hemisphere, it happened in 1999.

Humidity reductions in each region of Australia were closely followed by shifts to higher fire season maximum temperatures, amplified by soils drying out.

We also tested global average fire season length from 1979 to 2013 for regime shifts, finding a rapid expansion in 2002. That’s the same year Australia’s median fire danger jumped.

The consequences of these shifts are profound. The unprecedented fires in Canada and Europe, the devastating fires in Hawaii and the increasing frequency of wildfires around the world have their roots in lower relative humidity, which leads to higher daytime temperatures. That, in turn, creates these dangerous new fire regimes.

Why haven’t we heard about these sudden shifts in fire climate? One reason is much of our modelling is built on the assumption the steady accumulation of heat trapped by greenhouse gases leads to linear changes elsewhere.

But as this year’s climate chaos suggests, this assumption may be unfounded.

In our earlier research, we found zero of 32 climate models were able to reproduce the sudden shifts in relative humidity across the globe.

Read more:
‘Australia is sleepwalking’: a bushfire scientist explains what the Hawaii tragedy means for our flammable continent

What does this mean for this year’s fire season?

Many parts of New South Wales, Queensland, the western Northern Territory and northwest Victoria have already dried out, though large forests will keep some moisture after the years of rain. Grass fires are already raging in the Northern Territory.

That suggests the greatest risks this summer will be in grassland, scrubland and suburbs on the fringe of cities. Widespread catastrophic forest fires are probably less likely. But the major fires will return if dry conditions persist.

In fact, in the current climate, land can dry out much faster than it used to, leading to flash droughts which swing from very wet to very dry in a short period of time.

Remember – this current fire regime may not be permanent. As the climate warms further, it’s entirely possible our fire regimes could warp into something even more dangerous. Ensuring our climate models are capable of predicting these changes is an urgent task.

Read more:
Australia’s Black Summer of fire was not normal – and we can prove it

Roger Jones has provided technical advice on fire climate regimes to the Victorian Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action (Formerly the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning).

– ref. Fire regimes around Australia shifted abruptly 20 years ago – and falling humidity is why – https://theconversation.com/fire-regimes-around-australia-shifted-abruptly-20-years-ago-and-falling-humidity-is-why-209689

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The referendum on the Indigenous Voice to parliament will be held on October 14. A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted September 6–9 from a sample of 1,604, gave “no” to the Voice a 57–43 lead in a forced choice, out from a 54–46 “no” lead in August. Initial preferences were 49% “no” (up four), 35% “yes” (down two) and 16% undecided (down two).

In the last week, we have had Voice polls from Essential, Redbridge and Freshwater (see below) as well as Resolve. I have updated the Voice polls graph to reflect these new results. The graph now includes point results and trend lines for Redbridge and Freshwater.

Essential remains easily the best pollster for “yes”, but even this poll had “no” ahead by six points last week. Resolve, Newspoll and Freshwater polls gave “no” a 14 to 18 point lead, while Redbridge is the worst poll for “yes” with a 22-point lead for “no”. In all polling series, there is a worsening trend for “yes”.

Resolve combined its August and September Voice results for a national sample of 3,207, which would have given “no” about a 55.5–44.5 national lead. “No” led in all states except Tasmania, where “yes” was ahead by 56–44 on a small sample size. The leads for “no” ranged from 51–49 in Victoria to 61–39 in Queensland and Western Australia.

The falling polls for “yes” have encouraged many “yes” supporters on social media to attack the pollsters, spuriously claiming that there is something wrong with the polls. Analyst Kevin Bonham addressed many claims of “poll denial” in this long article last Wednesday, written after Newspoll gave “no” a 15-point lead.

Read more:
Albanese records first net negative Newspoll approval as Voice support slumps further

Labor and Albanese also down in Resolve poll

Primary votes in this Resolve poll were 36% Labor (down one since August), 34% Coalition (up one), 12% Greens (up one), 5% One Nation (steady), 2% UAP (steady), 9% independents (down one) and 2% others (steady).

Resolve does not give two party estimates until close to elections, but a calculation based on 2022 election preference flows gives Labor about a 55.5–44.5 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since August. While this is still a large lead, Resolve has been the most favourable pollster for Labor since the 2022 election.

On Anthony Albanese, 47% thought he was doing a poor job and 40% a good job, for a net approval of -7, down nine points. Peter Dutton’s net approval increased five points to -8, with only one point separating Albanese and Dutton’s net approval. Albanese’s lead as preferred PM was reduced to 43–28 from 46–25 in August.

Albanese’s polling honeymoon is over. After winning the May 2022 election, he was in positive double digits on net approval until the last two months, but his most recent net approvals are +3 from Essential, -1 from last week’s Newspoll and -7 from Resolve.

Essential poll: ‘No’ extends lead

A national Essential poll, conducted August 30 to September 3 from a sample of 1,151, gave “no” to the Indigneous Voice to parliament a 48–42 lead, out from a 47–43 “no” lead in August. On voting strength, 41% said they were hard “no” (up three), 7% soft “no” (down two), 30% hard “yes” (down one) and 12% soft “yes” (steady).

In Essential’s two party measure that includes undecided, Labor maintained an unchanged 51–43 lead from the previous fortnight. Primary votes were 32% Coalition (down one), 31% Labor (down two), 15% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (up two), 2% UAP (down one), 7% for all Others (steady) and 6% undecided (steady).

Albanese’s ratings were 46% approve (down two since July) and 43% disapprove (up two), for a net approval of +3, down four points. Dutton’s net approval improved one point to -5.

On Australia’s overall intelligence, 42% thought we were becoming less intelligent, 47% staying the same and 11% becoming more intelligent.

Morgan, Redbridge and Freshwater polls

In last week’s federal weekly Morgan poll, conducted August 28 to September 3 from a sample of 1,404, Labor led by 53–47, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition, 33.5% Labor, 13% Greens and 16% for all Others.

A federal Redbridge poll, conducted August 30 to September 4 from a sample of 1,001, gave Labor a 54.1–45.9 lead, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since mid-August. Primary votes were 37% Labor (down one), 36% Coalition (up four), 13% Greens (up three) and 14% for all Others (down seven).

This poll also gave “no” to the Voice a 61–39 lead, a widening from a 56–44 “no” lead in late July.

The Daily Mail reported Saturday that a national Freshwater poll gave “no” a 59–41 lead, a reversal of a 55–45 “yes” lead in May. Initial preferences were 50% “no” (up 11), 35% “yes” (down 13) and 15% undecided (up two). No fieldwork dates or sample size are available yet, but the poll was taken “last week”.

Queensland Redbridge poll: 55–45 to LNP

The Queensland state election will be held in October 2024. The Poll Bludger reported Saturday that a Redbridge poll, conducted August 26 to September 6 from a sample of 2,012, gave the Liberal National Party a 55–45 lead, from primary votes of 41% LNP, 26% Labor, 14% Greens and 19% for all Others, which did not include a separate figure for One Nation.

This is the first Redbridge Queensland state poll, and it is easily the worst for Labor of any poll this term. I wrote in late August that Queensland polls have been trending to the LNP this year, and this poll looks like a continuation of that trend.

Read more:
LNP takes lead in Queensland Resolve poll, but Labor still far ahead in Victoria

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Voice support and Albanese’s ratings continue to tumble in Resolve and other polls – https://theconversation.com/voice-support-and-albaneses-ratings-continue-to-tumble-in-resolve-and-other-polls-212872

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Buning, Senior Lecturer in Tourism, School of Business, The University of Queensland

Five years after being the first Australian city to introduce rideshare e-scooters, Brisbane is leading the way after many growing pains and a lot of learning.

Our latest research explored tourists’ and residents’ perceptions and experiences of the city. We surveyed both users and non-users of e-scooters and e-bikes in a first-of-its-kind study. We received nearly 1,000 responses, with 29 follow-up interviews.

Cities around the world are making micromobility, such as e-scooters and e-bikes, part of their transport plans. They hope to reap the widely proven benefits of encouraging active transport such as walking and cycling, reducing car trips and traffic congestion, cutting greenhouse gas emissions, improving access throughout cities and promoting residents’ overall wellbeing.

Still, micromobility is very much up for public debate. With more and more tourists using rideshare bikes and scooters and some cities banning them, important questions have been overlooked. How do these devices shape visitor experiences and a city’s image? How do residents view their use? And, what do non-users think?

Well, we found out. In Brisbane, these new forms of transport are being seen in an increasingly positive light as alternatives to private cars, public transport and ridershare services. Comparable to when cars replaced horses, micromobility options offer a convenient and improved transport experience that showcases the best parts of the city.

Read more:
Limes not lemons: lessons from Australia’s first e-scooter sharing trial

Micromobility services are good for a city’s image

When tourists arrive in a new city, they face a common challenge: where to go, what to see and, more importantly, how to get there?

Public transport is considered too stressful, confusing and at times unpleasant. Rideshare cars and taxis are easy and familiar, but they don’t provide an experience and miss out on the nooks and crannies of a destination.

A clear majority of the visitors in our study (83% users, 42% non-users) agreed e-scooters and e-bikes enhanced their tourism experience and their view of the city. This was because these forms of transport greatly increased the places they were able to see and experience. As a result, they regarded Brisbane as an active, modern city.

For many, riding e-escooters was itself one of the best aspects of visiting the city. One tourist told us:

Having an opportunity to use e-scooters while we visit Brisbane allows us to take in the beautiful environment that we would normally miss in a taxi or Uber.

Read more:
E-scooters are becoming wildly popular – but we have to factor in the weather

Another tourist said:

I really enjoyed using it [an e-scooter]. It was a highlight of our trip actually.

Common reasons for such positive views included: accessibility, convenience, sustainability, independence, novelty, spontaneity, maintaining a healthy lifestyle, being outside, sense of community and ease of use.

Similarly, non-user visitors largely view e-scooters as a benefit to the city. They see them as good for its image and/or are indifferent but see the appeal for others.

One tourist, a non-user of e-scooters, said:

I’d say right now, I don’t think it’s giving a bad image at all. On the contrary, I feel it gives an image of providing alternatives to cars.

Brisbane’s robust cycling infrastructure, referred to as “scooter highway” by study participants, was a factor in these positive views for all groups.

Another non-user tourist said:

I feel like most people are generally responsible about riding them, and not in the middle of the sidewalk. I would say they’re a good resource for sure.

Read more:
When 1 in 3 users are tourists, that changes the bike-share equation for cities

How do tourist and resident riders’ views differ?

We asked both tourists and residents for their views. All groups largely viewed e-scooters and e-bikes as alternatives to public transport rather than a supplement. Only a minority used e-scooters in combination with public transport.

Visitors to Brisbane who were not familiar with the public transport system found micromobility options incredibly useful. They were able to explore more attractions more quickly using e-scooters and e-bikes, without the hassle of buying travel cards and working out public transport timetables.

For visitors, micromobility itself is a tourism experience comparable to traditional attractions such as shopping and landmarks. For residents, it’s a convenient, independent, reliable and efficient way to commute, run errands, or go out and meet friends for dinner.

Read more:
Wallets on wheels: city visitors who use e-scooters more spend more

What about non-users?

We found differences between users and non-users. Users have overwhelmingly positive views (74%) of the benefits for themselves and others. Non-users either see the benefits to others, or are sceptical and worried about safety.

However, most non-users (65%) still viewed shared e-scooters and e-bikes as a public resource. Only a minority (35%) saw them as a nuisance.

So, what’s stopping more people using them? Commonly cited barriers included:

• safety concerns
• not knowing how to ride
• expensive
• self-image – not seeing themselves as e-scooter/e-bike riders
• lack of cycling-friendly infrastructure in some areas
• post-COVID hygiene concerns

Read more:
Thinking of swerving high fuel prices with an e-scooter or e-bike? 5 crucial questions answered

Micromobility is gaining ground

The results of our study are clear: micromobility is a win for urban transport and tourism. Visitors and residents who are able and willing to use e-scooters and e-bikes are rewarded with a better way to get around and experience all the city has to offer. Users have strongly positive views of these transport modes and the general city impact.

Efforts to improve safety and access, by lowering personal barriers, would likely improve perceptions of micromobility and of the city. Further innovations in e-scooter design, supported by education campaigns, complementary infrastructure and policy, are likely to lead to greater uptake and more positive views.

Richard Buning receives funding from Brisbane City Council. He is affiliated with Bicycle Queensland.

Wendy Pham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Five years on, Brisbane’s e-scooters and e-bikes are winning over tourists and residents as they open up the city – https://theconversation.com/five-years-on-brisbanes-e-scooters-and-e-bikes-are-winning-over-tourists-and-residents-as-they-open-up-the-city-212464

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachael Jefferson-Buchanan, Lecturer in Human Movement Studies (Health and PE) and Creative Arts, Charles Sturt University

We’ve known for some time the body mass index (BMI) is an inaccurate measuring stick for assessing someone’s weight and associated health. But it continues to be the go-to tool for medical doctors, population researchers and personal trainers.

Why is such an imperfect tool still being used, and what should we use instead?

Read more:
Is BMI a good way to tell if my weight is healthy? We asked five experts

First, what is BMI?

BMI is an internationally recognised screening method for sorting people into one of four weight categories: underweight (BMI less than 18.5), normal weight (18.5 to 24.9), overweight (25.0 to 29.9) or obese (30 or greater).

It’s a value calculated by a measure of someone’s mass (weight) divided by the square of their height.

Read more:
Using BMI to measure your health is nonsense. Here’s why

Who invented BMI?

Belgian mathematician Lambert Adolphe Jacques Quetelet (1796-1874) devised the BMI in 1832, as a mathematical model to chart the average Western European man’s physical characteristics.

It was initially called the Quetelet Index and was never meant to be used as a medical assessment tool. The Quetelex Index was renamed the “body mass index” in 1972.

What’s wrong with the BMI?

Using a mathematical formula to give a full picture of someone’s health is just not possible.

The BMI does not measure excess body fat, it just measures “excess” weight. It does not distinguish between excess body fat or bone mass or musculature, and does not interpret the distribution of fat (which is a predictor of health, including type 2 diabetes, metabolic disorders, and heart disease).

It also cannot tell the difference between social variables such as sex, age, and ethnicity. Given Quetelet’s formula used only Western European men, the findings are not appropriate for many other groups, including non-European ethnicities, post-menopausal women and pregnant women.

The medical profession’s overreliance on BMI may be harming patients’ health as it ignores much of what makes us healthy and focuses only on mass.

Read more:
Renaming obesity won’t fix weight stigma overnight. Here’s what we really need to do

What should we use instead?

Rather than seeing BMI as the primary diagnostic test for determining a person’s health, it should be used in conjunction with other measures and considerations.

Since researchers know belly fat around our vital organs carries the most health risk, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio or waist-to-height ratio offer more accurate measurements of health.

Waist circumference: is an effective measure of fat distribution, particularly for athletes who carry less fat and more muscle. It’s most useful as a predictor of health when combined with the BMI. Waist circumference should be less than 94cm for men and 80cm for women for optimal health, as measured from halfway between the bottom of your ribs and your hip bones.

Waist-to-hip ratio: calculates the proportion of your body fat and how much is stored on your waist, hips, and buttocks. It’s the waist measurement divided by hip measurement and according to the World Health Organisation it should be 0.85 or less for women, and 0.9 or less in men to reduce health risks. It’s especially beneficial in predicting health outcomes in older people, as the ageing process alters the body proportions on which BMI is founded. This is because fat mass increases and muscle mass decreases with age.

Waist-to-height ratio: is height divided by waist circumference, and it’s recommended a person’s waist circumference be kept at less than half their height. Some studies have found this measure is most strongly correlated with health predictions.

Body composition and body fat percentage can also be calculated through skinfold measurement tests, by assessing specific locations on the body (such as the abdomen, triceps or quadriceps) with skin callipers.

Additional ways to gauge your heart health include asking your doctor to monitor your cholesterol and blood pressure. These more formal tests can be combined with a review of lifestyle, diet, physical activity, and family medical history.

What makes us healthy apart from weight?

A diet including whole grains, low fat protein sources such as fish and legumes, eggs, yoghurt, cheese, milk, nuts, seeds, and plenty of fresh fruit and vegetables reduces our risk of heart and vessel disease.

Limiting processed food and sugary snacks, as well as saturated and trans fats can help us with weight management and ward off diet-related illnesses.

Being physically active most days of the week improves general health. This includes two sessions of strength training per week, and 2.5 to five hours of moderate cardio activity or 1.25 to 2.5 hours of vigorous cardio activity.

Weight is just one aspect of health, and there are much better measurements than BMI.

Rachael Jefferson-Buchanan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The body mass index can’t tell us if we’re healthy. Here’s what we should use instead – https://theconversation.com/the-body-mass-index-cant-tell-us-if-were-healthy-heres-what-we-should-use-instead-211190

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jane Simon, Senior Lecturer in Media, Macquarie University

For Zoe Leonard, photography is not just about using a camera. Photography is also about a way of thinking, seeing and interacting.

This focus continues in her recent series Al río/To the River at the Museum of Contemporary Art.

An American artist who works across photography, sculpture and installation, Leonard’s work is wide-ranging in theme but always finely attuned to the role of photography in how the world is ordered and understood.

Interested in the role of photography in mapping and archiving, Leonard often turns her camera towards the uneventful and the everyday.

Leonard has photographed bricked up houses, with windows and doors closed up; and the trunks of trees pressing against fences. In Analogue (1998–2009), she observes the changing urban fabric of New York and the global movement of recycled objects and textiles in secondhand market stalls.

Queer politics also informs her work. Strange Fruit (1992-1997), a collection of fruit skins sewn together with thread, zippers and buttons, engages with loss, mourning and repair – an acknowledgement of the many who died in the early days of the AIDS crisis, including many of Leonard’s friends.

She is most famous, perhaps, for I want a president, a work she typed out in 1992. This work was given new life as a large scale installation on the New York highline during the 2016 US election, the same year Leonard began photographing the Rio Bravo/Rio Grande.

Read more:
How photography can reveal, overlook and manipulate truth: the fearless work of Australian Iranian artist Hoda Afshar

Movement and displacement

Al río/To the River surveys the stretch of river known as Rio Grande in the United States and the Rio Bravo in Mexico. The river marks the politically contentious border between the US and Mexico. Al río/To the River consists of photographs taken between 2016–2022 along the expanse of this river/border, but it is not straightforward documentary.

The images in Al río/To the River imply narratives about movement and displacement. They suggest the underlying hum of surveillance, industry and commerce. They observe the persistence of trees, soil and birds and the movement of water, as well as the rigidity of walls and bridges.

Like much of Leonard’s work, human subjects are often not directly represented. Instead, their presence and stories are felt through objects, structures, detritus.

In one image Leonard gives us the afterlife of a cleaning broom, resting at the border. The broom suggests the labour of cleaning, of workers who constantly negotiate the barrier between the two countries.

The exhibition is a complex portrait of the border that trades in traces. In one sequence of images Leonard focuses on the tyre and rake marks left on soil by patrol cars. Another image presents discarded tyres attached to rope, used by border patrol to flatten soil ready to reveal the footprints of fleeing bodies.

Another sequence of black and white photographs observes the lines of an agricultural field, and a flock of birds taking flight. By the end of the sequence the birds in flight almost fill the frame.

These moments of beauty and movement provide relief from other photographs which document the rigidity of fences and walls, the sharpness of barbed wire.

There is no singular vision here of the river. There is harshness as well as beauty, surveillance and flight.

Read more:
Crossing the US-Mexico border is deadlier than ever for migrants – here’s why

Fragments of a whole

While most of the modestly-scaled photographs are gelatin black and white prints, there are also some colour photographs. The colour appears in a sequence of photographs of bright pink flowers blooming on the ground and a set of close-up photographs of the river’s churning brown water.

At the end of the exhibition a series of iPhone photographs document a live-feed on Leonard’s laptop witnessing people migrating across a bridge.

All these photographs need to be understood cumulatively: each a layer or fragment of a more complex picture.

Leonard’s vantage point is unfixed, shifting. Leonard photographed from both sides of the river. Sometimes she pointed her camera skyward at ominous hovering helicopters. At other times she observes what is at her feet, or the cars queuing ahead of her at border checkpoints.

These vantage points are, of course, Leonard’s own. She emphasises this through her choice not to crop out the black edge of the negative. This thin black frame from the unexposed edge of negative film is a reminder these photographs do not give us direct access to the river/border. Our access is mediated – framed – by Leonard’s camera and position.

The lens flare on one image reminds us these images are the result of a relationship between a lens, the sun and Leonard’s finger on the camera’s shutter.

Al río/To the River is organised around a suite of rooms, and structured into passages which reflect the flow of the river it observes. The exhibition offers a spatial experience as much as a visual one.

In one room the windows reveal Sydney Harbour, which connects to a river with its own complex history. A wall in the same room is covered with a grid of 34 photographs: an echo of the photographic contact sheet, again showing how Leonard brings into conversation the matter, form and scale of photography with questions about the politics of looking.

Zoe Leonard: Al río / To the River is at the Museum of Contemporary Art, Sydney, until November 5.

Read more:
Here’s a better vision for the US-Mexico border: Make the Rio Grande grand again

Image caption: Zoe Leonard, Al río/To the River (detail) 2016–2022 gelatin silver prints, C-prints and inkjet prints. Production supported by Mudam Luxembourg–Musée d’Art Moderne Grand-Duc Jean, Musée d’Art Moderne de Paris, Paris Musées, Museum of Contemporary Art Australia, Graham Foundation for Advanced Studies in the Fine Arts, John Simon Guggenheim Memorial Foundation, Galerie Gisela Capitain and Hauser & Wirth. Image courtesy the artist, Galerie Gisela Capitain, and Hauser & Wirth © Zoe Leonard

Jane Simon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The persistence of nature, the movement of water, the rigidity of walls: photographer Zoe Leonard documents the US–Mexico border – https://theconversation.com/the-persistence-of-nature-the-movement-of-water-the-rigidity-of-walls-photographer-zoe-leonard-documents-the-us-mexico-border-212267

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joe McIntyre, Associate Professor of Law, University of South Australia

In October, Australians are, for the first time in a generation, going to the polls to vote in a referendum.

Unfortunately, we’re out of practice in how to conduct ourselves in a referendum. This process is supposed to promote dialogue about the fundamental rules and identity of our nation.

Yet passions can run hot, and misinformation is rife. How can we make sure our discussions with friends and family are respectful? How can we find reliable sources to ensure we make an informed choice? These seven rules may help.

Read more:
The Voice to Parliament explained

Rule 1: remember there is no right answer

First, there is no one right answer. No side has the exclusive claim to the right(eous) solution, and there are valid concerns and arguments for both sides. You are not racist because you vote “no”. You are not a woke idealist because you vote “yes”.

While the “yes” and “no” campaigns rely heavily on emotional motifs, ultimately each Australian voter is entitled to make their own choice based on the best evidence.

Even some experts disagree, for example, on whether the change is constitutionally risky or not – depending on their risk appetite and ideological viewpoints. There is no single answer, and the consequences of either choice are uncertain.

A proposal to change the Constitution is an opportunity for us to reflect on the type of nation we wish to be. In a democracy, that means valuing a wide range of different perspectives and opinions.

The Uluru Statement offered one vision for recognition of First Nations people in Australia. It was an invitation from a significant body of Indigenous leaders to walk a particular path.

At the referendum we are asking whether that path is, at this time, the specific path the Australian people wish to walk.

Rule 2: don’t approach a referendum as if it is an election

Given the lack of bipartisan support for the proposal, it’s easy to default to the tribal operating mode of the three-year electoral cycle. This is wrong. A referendum is not like an election, in which we support one party or another. Instead, we have three parts:

1. what is being proposed
2. the case for reform
3. the case against reform.

In the bipartisan 1967 referendum, little attention was paid to what was being proposed – with the result that it remains poorly understood.

The ‘67 referendum allowed the government to make special laws for Indigenous people, and ensured all Indigenous people were counted in the census. However many people mistakenly believe the referendum gave Indigenous people the right to vote, or citizenship, or that they were previously counted as flora and fauna.

The benefit of a contested Voice referendum is that there is accurate, impartial and accessible information about the proposal – including its design, history and objectives.

The challenge is to remain alert to the distinction between the factual question of what is being proposed, and the policy question of whether we support it or not.

Rule 3: remember the Constitution belongs to all of us, and we can change it

It’s important to understand some key points about our constitution. Constitutions serve a number of roles: they create the basic political and legal institutions of a society, and regulate how they operate, interact and are limited.

But they are also a potent symbol of national identity and a means of refining and crafting a defining national narrative.

Australia’s Constitution is not a religious text. It was designed to evolve and change. It should not be viewed as static or set in stone.

We have had 44 referendums in our history, at an average of one every 2.7 years.

While only eight referendums have passed, five received majority support and another nine achieved more than 49% support.

The Constitution belongs to all of us, and we all have a right to have a say in its development. We are entitled to renew and reform it – and if something doesn’t work, to try again.

Rule 4: don’t believe (or repeat) everything you hear

Unfortunately, both disinformation and misinformation are rife in the public debate about the Voice. Both campaigns can (lawfully) lie to you.

While the Australian Electoral Commission has an online referendum disinformation register addressing errors about the referendum process, there is no register of misinformation about the Voice proposal itself.

Academics and media organisations (including RMIT ABC Fact Check, AAP Fact Check and AFP Fact Check) are fact-checking claims about the Voice.

Yet it remains difficult to isolate accurate information in a contested space. There remains a key difference between factual claims that can be verified, and subjective claims or opinions which cannot.

This referendum demands we critically reflect on the source, authority and ambitions underlying all information we see, hear and share.

Rule 5: it’s OK to find this hard and confusing

The contested nature of the referendum, endless misinformation, complex social issues and lack of practice with referendums will leave many of us feeling confused and overwhelmed. This is OK. This referendum is complex, and raises many issues.

This is compounded by our lack of legal literacy and civics education. Too often, Australians feel alienated from our legal institutions.

Every year, one in four Australians experience a substantial legal problem. However, only 3% of those problems are resolved through the legal system, with many choosing not to take action due to cost or not knowing what to do, or resolving the matter outside of the courts.

Without meaningful regular engagement with the law, we too often lack the language and framework to understand something so complex and archaic. It’s therefore completely understandable we may struggle with esoteric issues such as constitutional law.

Rule 6: don’t be afraid of expertise

The corollary of this, however, is that we should not be afraid of turning to experts to understand and assess the issue. The referendum is replete with issues that are technical and specialised.

The good news is there are lots of experts trying to help the public understand the issues, including Law Councils, former judges, and legal academics.

Rule 7: if you don’t know, learn

This leads to perhaps the most important point: as citizens, we have an obligation to ensure we are informed about the key ideas and issues before we enter the ballot box.

Fortunately, there are many excellent sources – including podcasts, short videos and discussions, and carefully curated websites – that have been designed by experts to ensure Australians are empowered to make a meaningfully informed choice. These sources are designed to provide impartial, accurate and accessible information.

Ultimately, the Voice proposal is about the dignity offered by listening to diverse opinions. Our challenge is to bring this same approach to our discussions about the referendum. These rules should help.

Read more:
Your questions answered on the Voice to Parliament

Joe McIntyre receives funding from The Law Foundation of South Australia. Together with Jackie Charles, he leads the Voice Legal Literacy Website linked to in this article.

– ref. 7 rules for a respectful and worthwhile Voice referendum – https://theconversation.com/7-rules-for-a-respectful-and-worthwhile-voice-referendum-212974

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Sussex, Associate Professor (Adj), Griffith Asia Institute; and Fellow, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, ANU, Australian National University

Some 560 days have passed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We have repeatedly been reminded about the awfulness of war – the senseless waste of human life and indiscriminate misery caused by the imperial delusions of a self-interested leader.

But the war has also been revealing in other ways. It has repeatedly defied expectations about its scope, impact and duration.

For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the mistaken belief that he could conquer much of Ukraine in a few days highlighted the depth of his hubris. Since then, his decision to continue the onslaught has revealed the ongoing practical costs to the Russian military.

Now, Moscow’s attempt to meet those costs is also showing how the world is beginning to split along broad, albeit fuzzy, lines of competition that could resonate beyond the Ukraine war.

Russia’s war depends on ammunition

Putin’s problem is a simple one. His forces are running out of ammunition – specifically 155mm and 122mm artillery shells, plus 120-mm mortar rounds. The Russian army relies heavily on them: massive artillery fire is central to its military doctrine.

According to an authoritative report by the Royal United Services Institute, Russia fired a whopping 12 million shells at Ukrainian targets in 2022. Despite a more disciplined approach prompted by dwindling war stocks, it is still likely to go through 7 million rounds in 2023.

Russia’s domestic manufacturing capacity – at around 2.5 million shells per year – makes this usage rate clearly unsustainable, with the war set to enter its third year.

An additional complication is the problem of barrel erosion. Artillery guns gradually warp with use and need to be replaced regularly.

So, if Russia is unable to make up the shortfall between what it is firing and what it can produce, its forces will be unable to blunt Ukraine’s counteroffensive for much longer. This makes Russia’s painstakingly constructed “Surovikin Line” (its defensive network of minefields, trenches and tank traps) likely to be more quickly overrun.

Read more:
‘Ukraine is unlikely ever to return to the Russian Empire’: in a new book, Mark Edele unpacks what’s at stake in a bloody war

Limited help, so far, from the BRICS

However, finding new ammunition suppliers is tricky. They must have the capability to quickly produce large volumes of shells that match Russian guns. They also need access to explosive energetic materials, especially the base materials for RDX (also known as hexogen) and TNT, the main ingredients in military-grade explosives.

But there are additional limits to the types of suppliers Russia can realistically seek out. Any nation that provides Moscow with ammunition would end up in dangerous diplomatic waters since the US and the broader West have threatened sanctions against those who aid Russia’s war effort.

As such, Russia’s search for ammunition partners has turned up a hodgepodge of aggrieved, ambitious and opportunistic nations. Many of these can be found in the BRICS grouping (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), which is loosely in favour of a “multipolar” (read: not solely US-dominated) world.

Of the BRICS members, Brazil has been designated by the US as a “major non-NATO ally”. It has ruled out selling arms to Russia, but also to Ukraine.

Although China calls Russia its “no limits” partner, it has also reportedly turned down requests to provide Moscow with munitions. But questions remain about its provision of dual-use technologies and electronics to Moscow, not to mention body armour and armoured personnel carriers.

The South African company Rheinmetall Denel Munition (RDM) has recently announced new deals to supply ammunition to both NATO and non-NATO countries.

But President Cyril Ramaphosa had to publicly deny sending Russia shipments of weapons after the US ambassador to South Africa accused his government of doing so. In a report released in September, an independent commission found “no evidence” that a Russian ship was loaded with ammunition before departing Cape Town in late 2022.

And while India has traditionally been heavily dependent on Russia for its military equipment, New Delhi reacted uneasily after Moscow announced in March it would be unable to meet its arms delivery commitments due to the war.

Other partners emerging

Beyond the BRICS, North Korea has been the most promising candidate to meet Russia’s ammunition needs, since it can mass produce 155mm artillery shells.

Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will reportedly hold a summit in Vladivostok this month, which would follow a visit by Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu to Pyongyang in July.

This has sent the worrying signal that Russia is preparing to abandon its participation in UN Security Council sanctions on North Korea over its nuclear weapons program. The sanctions ban the trade of military equipment and high-end technologies.

Given Moscow’s critical need for arms, North Korea will find itself in the unusual position of having the upper hand if the meeting goes ahead. These negotiations could easily progress from simple financial transactions to the provision of Russian systems for North Korea’s nuclear, guided missile and submarine programs.

Iran is another important piece of Russia’s armaments puzzle. It has already supplied Moscow with numerous Shahed 136 kamikaze drones and hundreds of thousands of artillery shells.

And in April, the Egyptian government was forced to deny accusations it intended to secretly ship some 40,000 rockets to Russia to “avoid problems with the West”.

What this means for global competition

What these nations have in common is that they are all either hostile to the United States, ambivalent towards it, or prepared to have a bet both ways.

Both Iran and Egypt were invited to join the BRICS group last month, along with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Argentina and Ethiopia.

BRICS is by no means a well-developed organisation. It is geographically disparate and has no charter or secretariat to steer a coherent agenda for its work.

But it is reflective of the gradual coming together of nations favouring alternatives to the rules-based order, who tend to equate it with US hegemony. And, like any emergent rival bloc, what it lacks in architecture, it makes up for in potential. Adjusted for purchasing power, the BRICS overtook the G7 in 2023 in terms of total share of global GDP, although its members still lag far behind the G7 members on measures like GDP per capita.

Read more:
Brics expansion: six more nations are set to join – what they’re buying into

Russia’s ammunition woes have certainly reinforced its desire to woo the BRICS. That alone is unlikely to send shivers down the spines of Western policy planners. Yet, it is a reminder that Moscow is continually seeking to counter Western influence where it can, especially in countries where it perceives it to be vulnerable.

It has also been doing so through the presence of the Wagner group in the resource-rich areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. And Russia eagerly promotes anti-West narratives in places where they resonate among sections of society, like South Asia, Indonesia and Malaysia.

Importantly, the same tactics are being adopted by China, albeit in a more muted form.

While Russia’s ammunition woes seem to be an isolated affair, how it seeks to mobilise support among like-minded nations is important.

The more it looks for support in areas where Western influence is muted or tenuous, the broader the competition will become between those favouring a US-led international order and others interested in exploring alternatives.

And on that basis, Russia’s war in Ukraine takes on even greater significance. Instead of a conflict that fits within clear regional boundaries, it is increasingly becoming a war with global ramifications.

Matthew Sussex has received funding from the Australian Research Council, the Fulbright Foundation, the Carnegie Foundation, the Lowy Institute and various Australian government departments and agencies.

– ref. As Russia woos nations to support its war in Ukraine, will fault lines deepen around the globe? – https://theconversation.com/as-russia-woos-nations-to-support-its-war-in-ukraine-will-fault-lines-deepen-around-the-globe-212865

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Carmel Hobbs, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of Tasmania

Australian teens need adults to help them recognise red flags for potentially abusive relationships.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics estimates 2.2 million adults have been victims of physical and/or sexual violence from a partner since the age of 15. Almost 1 in 3 Australian teens aged 18–19 report experiences of intimate partner violence in the previous year.

But physical, sexual, or psychological abuse in teen intimate relationships remains an invisible issue. The First National Action Plan to End Violence Against Women and Children fails to mention it at all and
Australia lacks youth-specific domestic violence support services.

We know teens are experiencing intimate partner violence that is putting their lives in danger. But they are dependent on informal networks for assistance. Abuse can impact all parts of their lives and their age and stage of development make them even more vulnerable to its effects.

I interviewed 17 young people about their experiences of teen intimate partner violence from when they were under 18. They wanted support and insight from the adults around them.

‘I hadn’t experienced a proper relationship before’

Limited relationship experience can prevent young people identifying red flags for intimate partner violence. Interviewee Elise said:

As a young teen, I hadn’t experienced a proper relationship before; I just kind of thought this is how it is.

While physical and sexual violence cross clear lines, Australian teens report difficulty recognising more subtle forms of violence and control, such as emotional and technology-facilitated abuse.

Read more:
The government has released its action plans to end violence against women and children. Will they be enough?

7 red flags that can happen early

Young people identified red flags in their past intimate relationships and described how difficult it was to see them in the moment. On their own these behaviours and actions may not be problematic. For example, spending lots of time together is a relatively normal part of a new intimate relationship.

But concern should arise when these behaviours become part of a pattern. They can become integrated into everyday life, making them difficult to recognise – and they can escalate over time. Here are some examples of red flags for teen intimate relationships that can begin a pattern of violence and abuse:

1. being together all the time, using technology to monitor location when not together and a sense of always “being on call”

2. sharing passwords to social media accounts or devices (or setting up shared profiles)

3. turning up unannounced or “as a surprise”

4. saying “I love you” very early in the relationship, talking about living together or having children. This is sometimes called “love bombing”

5. showering with gifts and grand gestures

6. contacting someone’s friends or family to find out where they are

7. framing controlling behaviours as “care” or “concern”.

Young person Gina said:

We had a joint Facebook [account], because I wasn’t allowed to really talk to people without him seeing it […] He had to have the password.

Ingrid’s partner framed control as care:

He’d just perpetually check where I am, and then sometimes he’d just turn up […] He’d be like, ‘I’m just checking that you’re safe.’

If a teen begins to feel like their autonomy and freedom to make choices are being restricted, it is a clear cause for concern. Jamie said:

I didn’t have contribution into simple things like what movie to watch.

Sam felt like they had to spend time with their partner, even if they didn’t want to:

I’d spend hours […] just watching them play video games, because I didn’t feel like I could go and do something else […] And I hate video games.

Read more:
Think you might be dating a ‘vulnerable narcissist’? Look out for these red flags

6 red flags that suggest escalation

Increasingly problematic (but still difficult to see) behaviours include:

1. framing the relationship as unique or fated, such as saying the partner is the only person who truly understands them and nobody else could ever “love you like I do”

2. isolating a partner by making it difficult for them to spend time with others

3. assuming sexual activity will happen because “they are in a relationship”

4. framing feelings of jealousy as evidence of love

5. “suggesting” how they should dress or look or encouraging exercise or diet changes

6. insults passed off as “just a joke”.

Read more:
‘I couldn’t escape. I wasn’t entirely sure I wanted to’: confusing messages about consent in young adult fantasy fiction

How can you help?

Research shows parents are in a unique position to support teens to foster healthy relationships. Interviewee Addison was among those asking for guidance:

Anybody that can see the relationship [has] red flags. Anybody that is worried for me, I want them to tell me.

Safe and reliable adults can act as role models, ensure safety, involve professionals and empower teens to build safe and healthy relationships.

We can do this by building trusting, open relationships with the teens in our lives, giving them a chance to talk and listening without judgement. If your teenager does not want to talk to you, help them find another person to talk to instead. It’s important to remember they may not respond the way we hope, but providing support and talking about relationships can decrease the risk of them ending up in an abusive relationship.

And we need a national plan to prevent and respond to teen intimate partner violence. It is not the responsibility of teens or their families to solve this issue.

If you suspect your teen is in an abusive relationship, contact 1800 RESPECT (1800 737 732) for advice and information. If you or someone you know is in immediate danger, contact 000.

Read more:
Stuck in a ‘talking stage’ or ‘situationship’? How young people can get more out of modern love

Anglicare Tasmania funded the original research project where data for this article was collected.

– ref. 7 red flags your teen might be in an abusive relationship – and 6 signs it’s escalating – https://theconversation.com/7-red-flags-your-teen-might-be-in-an-abusive-relationship-and-6-signs-its-escalating-212536

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bruno Vicari Stefani, CERC Fellow, Solar Technologies, CSIRO

Solar panel technology has made enormous progress in the last two decades. In fact, the most advanced silicon solar cells produced today are about as good as the technology will get.

So what’s next? Enter “tandem solar cells”, the new generation in solar technology. They can convert a much greater portion of sunlight into electricity than conventional solar cells.

The technology promises to fast-track the global transition away from polluting sources of energy generation such as coal and gas. But there’s a major catch.

As our new research shows, current tandem solar cells must be redesigned if they’re to be manufactured at the scale required to become the climate-saving technology the planet needs.

The solar story so far

A solar cell is a device that turns sunlight into electricity. One important measure when it comes to solar cells is their efficiency – the proportion of sunlight they can convert into electricity.

Almost all solar panels we see today are made from “photovoltaic” silicon cells. When light hits the silicon cell, electrons inside it produce an electric current.

The first silicon photovoltaic cell, demonstrated in 1954 in the United States, had an efficiency of about 5%. That means that for every unit of the Sun’s energy the cell received, 5% was turned into electricity.

But the technology has since developed. At the end of last year, Chinese solar manufacturer LONGi announced a new world-record efficiency for silicon solar cells of 26.81%.

Silicon solar cells will never be able to convert 100% of the Sun’s energy into electricity. That’s mostly because an individual material can absorb only a limited proportion of the solar spectrum.

To help increase efficiency – and so continue to reduce the cost of solar electricity – new technology is needed. That’s where tandem solar cells come in.

A promising new leap

Tandem solar cells use two different materials which absorb energy from the Sun together. In theory, it means the cell can absorb more of the solar spectrum – and so produce more electricity – than if just one material is used (such as silicon alone).

Using this approach, researchers overseas recently achieved a tandem solar cell efficiency of 33.7%. They did this by building a thin solar cell with a material called perovskite directly on top of a traditional silicon solar cell.

Traditional silicon solar panels still dominate manufacturing. But leading solar manufacturers have signalled plans to commercialise the tandem cell technology.

Such is the potential of tandem solar cells, they are poised to overtake the conventional technology in coming decades. But the expansion will be thwarted, unless the technology is redesigned with new, more abundant materials.

Read more:
Is it worth investing in a battery for your rooftop solar? Here’s what buyers need to know (but often can’t find out)

The problem of materials

Almost all tandem solar cells involve a design known as “silicon heterojunction”. Solar cells made in this way normally require more silver, and more of the chemical element indium, than other solar cell designs.

But silver and indium are scarce materials.

Silver is used in thousands of applications, including manufacturing, making it highly sought after. In fact, global demand for silver reportedly rose by 18% last year.

Likewise, indium is used to make touchscreens and other smart devices. But it’s extremely rare and only found in tiny traces.

This scarcity isn’t a problem for tandem solar technology yet, because it hasn’t yet been produced in large volumes. But our research shows this scarcity could limit the ability of manufacturers to ramp up production volumes in future.

This may represent a substantial roadblock in tackling climate change. By mid-century, the world must install 62 times more solar power capacity than is currently built, to enable the clean energy shift.

Clearly, a major redesign of tandem solar cells is urgently needed to enable this exponential acceleration of solar deployment.

Read more:
How to maximise savings from your home solar system and slash your power bills

Ramping up the transition

Some silicon solar cells don’t use indium and require only a small amount of silver. Research and development is urgently needed to make these cells compatible with tandem technology. Thankfully, this work has already begun – but more is needed.

A scarcity of materials is not the only barrier to overcome. Tandem solar cells must also be made more durable. Solar panels we see everywhere today are generally guaranteed to produce a decent amount of electricity for at least 25 years. Perovskite-on-silicon tandem cells don’t last as long.

Solar power has already shaken up electricity generation in Australia and around the world. But in the race to tackle climate change, this is only the beginning.

Tandem solar cell research is truly global, conducted within a range of countries, including Australia. The technology offers a promising way forward. But the materials used to make them must be urgently reconsidered.

Read more:
Despairing about climate change? These 4 charts on the unstoppable growth of solar may change your mind

Bruno Vicari Stefani receives funding from the CSIRO Research Office.

Matthew Wright receives funding from UK Research and Innovation.

– ref. Solar panel technology is set to be turbo-charged – but first, a few big roadblocks have to be cleared – https://theconversation.com/solar-panel-technology-is-set-to-be-turbo-charged-but-first-a-few-big-roadblocks-have-to-be-cleared-210723

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emily Freeman, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, University of Newcastle

That’s getting a bit wild, kids! Why don’t you play something quieter?

How often have you found yourself saying something like this to your children as they’re rolling around on the lounge room floor?

Even if they are smiling and clearly having fun, as parents, we often worry that someone will get hurt or it will turn into aggression, and ultimately, tears.

As a family and child psychology researcher, parents often ask me why children engage in this type of rough-and-tumble play. What is it? Is it good for them? Should I be stopping it?

The short answers are: it’s fun, it’s good for their development and you can encourage a good quality rough play session with a few boundaries.

Read more:
Are your squabbling kids driving you mad? The good/bad news is, sibling rivalry is ‘developmentally normal’

What is rough-and-tumble play?

Rough-and-tumble play is a type of energetic physical play that involves wrestling and chasing in a playful manner.

Parents often refer to it as “roughhousing”, “rumbling” or “play-fighting”.

An interesting thing about rough-and-tumble play is it is not unique to humans. In fact, it’s seen in almost all mammals, from rodents, to wolves, to bears and non-human primates.

Have you ever sat and watched a litter of puppies in their first four to six weeks of life? All they do is eat, sleep and rough-and-tumble play. When a behaviour is seen across numerous species, it suggests the behaviour plays a functional role in development.

There are developmental benefits

Perhaps the most obvious benefit of this type of play is physical development.

Children develop balance, coordination, strength and agility through play fighting, wrestling and rolling around on the floor together or with a parent.

This style of play provides opportunities for children to explore and understand their bodies’ capabilities and limitations. One of our studies on father-child rough-and-tumble play showed children who engaged more frequently in this style of play had a lower injury risk than children who didn’t play like this often. This supports the idea that rough-and-tumble play helps teach children about their physical limits.

Rough-and-tumble play also helps children to develop their social and nonverbal communication skills. In a good bout of roughhousing, children engage in negotiation and cooperation with each other – they learn how to initiate the play, set boundaries and respect the boundaries of their play partner.

Most of this is done nonverbally. Children learn to read their play partner’s signals, such as their facial expressions and body language – are they leaning into the play or pulling away from it? Are they smiling or grimacing?

Read more:
Kids learn valuable life skills through rough-and-tumble play with their dads

Managing emotions

Children also learn how to manage their emotions and self-regulate through this type of play. Think about all the emotions a child may go through while wrestling with their sibling. There might be:

• excitement at the thought of winning and the opportunity to be loud and boisterous

• frustration their sibling is stronger and it’s hard to pin them down or wriggle out from under them

• enjoyment of the bond they are sharing with their sibling

• and maybe a little bit of fear if they get a bit too wild and Mum or Dad breaks it up, or they accidentally knock something over.

Experiencing all these emotions and learning how to navigate them helps children develop emotional resilience.

Helping cognition

Rough-and-tumble play is also related to cognitive development. In one of our recent studies, we showed children who do more rough-and-tumble play have better working memory ability and fewer working memory problems.

Working memory is a cognitive function that allows us to hold and manipulate a small amount of relevant information.

If I gave you a maths problem (such as 4 + 6 – 2) and asked you to solve it in your head, you would be using your working memory (the answer is 8, by the way!). Similarly, if I told you the rules of a rough-and-tumble game, like “sock wrestle”, you would have to keep those rules in mind while playing the game and at the same time trying to win.

How can you encourage good play?

Given all these benefits, how should you encourage good quality rough-and-tumble play?

Most importantly, you want to keep it safe.

Ideally, rough-and-tumble play should happen in large open spaces. Having a designated playmat is a good idea, as is moving the coffee table out of the way if you get a chance before the play starts.

You should also make sure all players actually want to play. Setting some rules around what types of contact are off-limits – no hitting, kicking or biting is a good place to start.

You also want to allow enough time so everyone wears themselves out.

It’s a nice idea to have a signal the kids use to indicate the play is over and which helps build a warm and loving connection – a handshake, high-five or hug, whatever works in your house.

Emily Freeman receives funding from the Hunter Medical Resarch Institute, Department of Health and Aged Care, and the University of Newcastle.

– ref. ‘That’s getting a bit wild, kids!’ Why children love to play-fight and why it is good for them – https://theconversation.com/thats-getting-a-bit-wild-kids-why-children-love-to-play-fight-and-why-it-is-good-for-them-212967

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Song Shi, Associate Professor School of Built Environment, University of Technology Sydney

When China cracked down on money leaving the country in 2017, some Sydney home prices fell 3%, while in other suburbs the restrictions had next to no impact.

This finding – from research Xunpeng Shi and I recently published in the journal Housing Studies – shows Chinese investors have had some effect on local house prices. However, our research also shows the impact has been much less – and less widespread – than many Australians think.

We found the only Sydney suburbs in which Chinese buyers appeared to have had a strong impact on prices were those with large concentrations of Chinese residents.

Getting money out of China used to be easy

Australia’s rules make it harder for foreigners to buy Australian homes, among other things limiting purchases to new dwellings and vacant land.

But until 2017, it was fairly easy to get money out of China.

Among the channels commonly used were AliPay, WeChat, UnionPay, credit cards and underground banks specialising in foreign exchange and holding properties on behalf of Chinese citizens.

On December 30 2016, the People’s Bank of China published an order entitled Administrative Measures on Reporting for Large-Value Transactions and Suspicious Transactions, limiting foreign currency conversions to US$50,000 per person and explicitly banning the purchase of foreign properties.

It came into effect on July 1 2017.

Tighter controls made buying Sydney property harder

Before the order, in 2016, Chinese overseas direct foreign investment in Australia totalled US$11.5 billion.

By 2019 it had slid to US$2.4 billion.

A real estate agent specialising in the Sydney CBD high-end dwellings was quoted in 2020 as saying Chinese buyers dominated the market between 2013 and 2017, but bought only one or two in 2018.

Our study used this rare natural experiment to estimate the effect Chinese buyers had had on Sydney home prices.

We did this by comparing what happened to prices in the suburbs with a high concentration of Chinese owners to what happened in those with few Chinese owners.

To do so, we split Sydney’s 678 suburbs into “Chinese” and “non-Chinese”, based on their populations in the 2016 Census.

Prices fell 3% in these suburbs – with little impact elsewhere

We compared prices 18 months before and 18 months after the change, using a number of different cutoff points to define “Chinese” and “non-Chinese” suburbs.

We found China’s restrictions pushed down prices in what we defined as Sydney’s “Chinese” suburbs by around 3%. In contrast, the restrictions had next to no impact on prices in other suburbs.

This remained the case when we checked our results against the ten most “Chinese” suburbs identified by the publication Sydney Suburb Reviews: Haymarket, Carlingford, Chippendale, Zetland, Chatswood, Ultimo, Eastwood, Rhodes, Burwood, and Hurstville.

It also remained the case when we took into account other changes in Australian foreign investment rules during the period.

Overall, Chinese buyers had a limited impact

Our findings have important implications. They suggest ongoing concerns about Chinese capital and Chinese investors driving up Australian home prices and exacerbating affordability problems are overstated.

Foreign investment should be welcomed to the extent that it helps boost Australia’s housing supply. Our study found its effect on housing affordability is marginal and limited to particular suburbs.

Read more:
Think curbing overseas migration will end the housing crisis? It won’t – and we can’t afford to do it

Song Shi receives funding from Australia-China Relations Institute at University of Technology Sydney. Song Shi has an honorary appointment of ACRI Research Associate.

– ref. How much did Chinese investors drive up Sydney home prices? It’s less than you might think – https://theconversation.com/how-much-did-chinese-investors-drive-up-sydney-home-prices-its-less-than-you-might-think-212186

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

In his relatively brief time as prime minister, Anthony Albanese has had very extensive contact with US President Joe Biden. According to the prime minister’s office, Albanese has had four formal meetings with him, plus two Quad meetings, and several other less formal discussions. They’ll rub shoulders again at the G20 this weekend in India.

Biden will also host Albanese for a state visit to Washington next month.

The relationship between the Labor government and the US is close, as is that, it seems, between the two leaders. But one, relatively modest (in Australian eyes), Albanese request – for the Americans to drop their bid to extradite Julian Assange – has fallen on firmly blocked ears.

Later this month, a delegation of federal parliamentarians is to travel to Washington to lobby, ahead of the Albanese visit. Its composition reflects how the issue spans the political spectrum. It includes former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce, Tony Zappia (Labor), Alex Antic (Liberal), Monique Ryan (independent), and Peter Whish-Wilson and David Shoebridge, both from the Greens.

The trip is being privately financed by the Assange campaign. Crowd-funding attracted more than 800 donors and raised some A$65,000 to cover the trip.

The parliamentarians will lobby members of congress and seek meetings with the State Department and the Department of Justice. Australia’s ambassador to the US, Kevin Rudd, will no doubt be busy arranging appointments. The group is also set to talk with non-government organisations including the American Civil Liberties Union, the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression, and the Committee to Protect Journalists and Reporters Without Borders.

The Assange story is well known.

His WikiLeaks’ publication in 2010 of a trove of US intelligence about American activities in Iraq and Afghanistan, leaked by then-intelligence officer Bradley (now Chelsea) Manning, was highly damaging for the Americans. The material was widely published internationally, including in Australia.

Assange took long-term refuge for years in the embassy of Ecuador in London. Finally he was thrown out of there; for years he has been in a British prison, fighting through the court system to try to prevent his extradition.

Albanese says the Assange affair has gone on too long; since Labor was elected, hopes for progress on his repatriation have waxed and waned.

Read more:
A rocky diplomatic road: Julian Assange’s hopes of avoiding extradition take a blow as US pushes back

A bad sign came earlier this year when US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, at a press conference in Australia with Foreign Minister Penny Wong, said he understood Australians’ sensitivities but declared it was “very important that our friends here understand our concerns about this matter”.

The actions that he has alleged to have committed risked very serious harm to our national security, to the benefit of our adversaries, and put named human sources at grave risk – grave risk – of physical harm, and grave risk of detention.

More positive sentiments from the US embassy in Canberra came to nothing.

By any logic, the US has undercut its own case against Assange by its treatment of Manning, who was pardoned by President Barack Obama. On that precedent, surely, leniency should be extended to Assange.

Moreover, a distinction should be made between the leaking of official material and the publication of the material, which goes to media freedom.
Joyce argues on another front: “extraterritoriality is a very dangerous precedent”.

Julian Assange did not commit a crime in Australia – in fact he was given a Walkley [for WikiLeaks’ journalism]. He is not a citizen of the United States. He was not present in the United States when something was done in breach of US law.

If the Americans can extradite an Australian to America after an affront to one of their laws, even though he is not a citizen and never committed a crime in America, how long before the Chinese ask for the same?

Read more:
A new book argues Julian Assange is being tortured. Will our new PM do anything about it?

Simon Jackman, an expert in US politics at the University of Sydney, says it is good the delegation is going, as it shows the breadth of support for action. But he stresses the difficulty of making progress with the Americans.

Among the obstacles are the strong feelings about Assange in the US national security establishment, and the political situation Biden is facing.

Jackman says the Assange matter has become conflated, in the national security context, with the Edward Snowden affair – the case of a National Security Agency contractor who leaked a large volume of Five Eyes information, which arguably had far more damaging fallout than the 2010 leak.

Snowden is now in Russia, having escaped the US justice system – which has probably made the national security establishment even more determined to pursue Assange, Jackman says.

There is also strong feeling against Assange among some Democrats, in the wake of the WikiLeaks publication of emails that harmed Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential bid.

Labor MP Julian Hill has highlighted a further serious complication in appeals for Biden to act. The Justice Department is spearheading the pursuit of Assange. Biden, over a long period, has been strong in his rhetoric about not interfering with that department. Australia is asking him to go back on that principle – and at a time when the department is acting against Donald Trump.

More than logic or justice, the Assange affair has become a matter of raw American politics. It is the worst of times to be making representations. With the presidential election looming next year, with a massive challenge facing the Democrats, Biden will not want to do anything to provoke his base.

Assange’s cause is, it seems – at least so far – something to which the US-Australia official friendship does not stretch.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. View from The Hill: Australia’s bid for Julian Assange’s freedom presents formidable problems for Joe Biden – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-australias-bid-for-julian-assanges-freedom-presents-formidable-problems-for-joe-biden-213152

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bronwyn Carlson, Professor, Indigenous Studies and Director of The Centre for Global Indigenous Futures, Macquarie University

Artificial intelligence (AI) relies on its creators for training, otherwise known as “machine learning.” Machine learning is the process by which the machine generates its intelligence through outside input.

But its behaviour is determined by the information it is provided. And at the moment, AI is a white male dominated field.

How can we ensure the evolution of AI doesn’t further encroach on Indigenous rights and data sovereignty?

AI risks to Indigenous art

AI has the ability to generate art, and anyone can “create” Indigenous art using this machine. Even before AI, Aboriginal art has widely been appropriated and reproduced without attribution or acknowledgement, particularly for tourism industries.

And this could worsen with people now being able to generate art through AI. This is an issue not just experienced by Indigenous people, with many artists affected by their art styles being misappropriated.

Indigenous art is embedded with history and connects to culture and Country. AI-created Indigenous art would lack this. There are also implications for financial gain bypassing Indigenous artists and going to the producers of the technology.

Including Indigenous people in creating AI or deciding what AI can learn, could help minimise exploitation of Indigenous artists and their art.

Baca juga:
AI can reinforce discrimination — but used correctly it could make hiring more inclusive

What is Indigenous data sovereignty?

In Australia there is a long history of collecting data about Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. But there has been little data collected for or with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. Aboriginal scholars Maggie Walter and Jacon Prehn write of this in the context of the growing Indigenous Data Sovereignty movement.

Indigenous Data Sovereignty is concerned with the rights of Indigenous peoples to own, control, access and possess their own data, and decide who to give it to. Globally, Indigenous peoples are pushing for formal agreements on Indigenous Data Sovereignty.

Many Indigenous people are concerned with how the data involving our knowledges and cultural practices is being used. This has resulted in some Indigenous lawyers finding ways to integrate intellectual property with cultural rights.

Māori scholar Karaitiana Taiuru says:

If Indigenous peoples don’t have sovereignty of their own data, they will simply be re-colonised in this information society.

How mob have been using AI

Indigenous people are already collaborating on research that draws on Indigenous knowledges and involves AI.

In the wetlands of Kakadu, rangers are using AI and Indigenous knowledges to care for Country.

A weed called para grass is having a negative impact on magpie geese, which have been in decline. While the Kakadu rangers are doing their best to control the issue, the sheer size of the area (two million hectares), makes this difficult.

Collecting and analysing information about magpie geese and the impact of para grass using drones is having a positive influence on goose numbers.

Projects like these are vital given the loss of biodiversity around the globe that is causing species extinctions and ecosystem loss at alarming rates. As a result of this collaboration thousands of magpie geese are returning to Country to roost.

This project involves Traditional land owners (collectively known as Bininj in the north of Kakadu National Park and Mungguy in the south) working with rangers and researchers to help protect the environment and preserve biodiversity.

By working with Traditional Owners, monitoring systems were able to be programmed with geographically-specific knowledge, not otherwise recorded, reflecting the connection of Indigenous people with the land. This collaboration highlights the need to ensure Indigenous-led approaches.

In another example, in Sanikiluaq, an Inuit community in Nunavut, Canada, a project called PolArtic uses scientific data with Indigenous knowledges to assess the location of, and manage, fisheries.

Changing climate patterns are affecting the availability of fish, and this is another example where Indigenous knowledges are providing solutions for biodiversity issues caused by the global climate crisis.

Indigital is an Indigenous-owned profit-for-purpose company founded by Dharug, Cabrogal innovator Mikaela Jade. Jade has worked with traditional owners of Kakadu to use augmented reality to tell their stories on Country.

Indigital is also providing pathways for mob who are keen to learn more about digital technologies and combine them with their knowledges.

Baca juga:
How should Australia capitalise on AI while reducing its risks? It’s time to have your say

Future challenges and opportunities for Indigenous inclusion

Although AI is a powerful tool, it is limited by the data which inform it. The success of the above projects is because AI was informed by Indigenous knowledges, provided by Indigenous knowledge holders who have a long held ancestral relationship with the land, animals and environment.

Research indicates AI is a white male-dominated industry. A global study found 12% of professionals across all levels were female, with only 4% being people of colour. Indigenous participation was not noted.

In early June, the Australian government’s Safe and Responsible AI in Australia discussion paper found racial and gender biases evident in AI. Racial biases occurred, the paper found, in situations such as where AI had been used to predict criminal behaviour.

The purpose of the study was to seek feedback on how to lessen potential risks of harm from AI. Advisory groups and consultation processes were raised as possibilities to address this, but not explored in any real depth.

Indigenous knowledges have a lot to offer in the development of new technologies including AI. Art is part of our cultures, ceremonies, and identity. AI-generated art presents the risk of mass reproduction without Indigenous input or ownership, and misrepresentation of culture.

The federal government needs to consider Indigenous Knowledges informing the machine learning informing AI, supporting data sovereignty. There is an opportunity for Australia to become a global leader in pursuing technology advancement ethically.

Dr Peita Richards is the recipient of an Office of National Intelligence, National Intelligence Postdoctoral Grant (project number 202308) funded by the Australian Government.

Bronwyn Carlson tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.

– ref. Indigenous knowledges informing ‘machine learning’ could prevent stolen art and other culturally unsafe AI practices – https://theconversation.com/indigenous-knowledges-informing-machine-learning-could-prevent-stolen-art-and-other-culturally-unsafe-ai-practices-210625

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Scarlett Howard, Lecturer, School of Biological Sciences, Monash University

Everybody loves bees, but their cousins the wasps often provoke a far less friendly reaction. The much-maligned insects often inspire fear, disgust or even the “kill it with fire” response.

The stereotypical wasp is the angular, angry-looking vespid with black and yellow stripes known as the European wasp (Vespula vulgaris). It has a reputation for aggression, stinging multiple times and contributing little to society. But that’s just one of more than 100,000 known wasp species with a wide range of appearances, many of which don’t even sting.

In our work with wasps, we have found these innocent insects have done little to deserve our scorn. In fact, they have surprisingly complex minds and can play important ecological roles.

Our latest study, published in Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology, shows European wasps have impressive abilities to learn visual tasks in different ways depending on how we train them. It adds to a growing body of research about what wasp’s minds can do – including recognising human faces and learning other complex tasks.

Read more:
Are they watching you? The tiny brains of bees and wasps can recognise faces

How to train a wasp

European wasps are central-place foragers, which means they will remember and return to a profitable food source – be that sugar, meat or your soft drink at a BBQ. This behaviour allows us to train individual wasps to return to our experiment throughout a day.

We offer the wasps sugar water, and then place an identification dot on each individual. A wasp will then continue returning to participate in experiments as long as we are offering a sugary reward.

The wasps in our study were enthusiastic volunteers who would fly some distance to participate. In our experiments, wasps needed to undergo ten trials to learn a visual task, and then a further ten trials without reward to test if they had learnt.

Wasps received sugar water for correct choices in learning, and continually returned to the experiment to finish all the trials.

What did the wasps learn?

We trained wasps to discriminate between two different hues of blue cards. The colours are quite similar to wasp vision, so it is a tricky task.

We evaluated three ways of training wasps to determine how they learned best.

First, we used absolute conditioning to train the wasps to discriminate between the colours. In this method, wasps were given sugar on the card of the correct colour without seeing the other colour. We introduced cards of the other colour as well to test whether the wasps could discriminate between the two.

The second training method was appetitive differential conditioning. In this approach, both colours of card were present during training. Wasps were rewarded for landing on the correct colour and received no outcome if they landed on the incorrect colour.

The third training framework was appetitive-aversive differential conditioning, where wasps were provided with a sugar reward for landing on the correct colour and tasted a bitter liquid when they landed on the incorrect colour. Again, both colours were present during learning.

With absolute conditioning, the wasps failed to successfully identify the correct colour in tests. However, when trained with either the appetitive or appetitive-aversive differential conditioning, they did pass the colour test.

This result tells us it was important for wasps to view and compare both colours simultaneously to enable learning. Their learning was actually best when there was a sweet reward on one colour and a bitter liquid on the other.

What else do we know about wasp intelligence?

Scientists are becoming increasingly interested in wasp intelligence.

One recent study showed two species of hornets (a kind of wasp) could learn to discriminate between two colours when one colour was associated with sugar water. The hornets could then reverse that learning when the rewarding colour was switched. This reverse learning task is challenging for small brains to solve.

Other studies have shown paper wasps have evolved specialised abilities for learning faces. One species of paper wasp can differentiate among normal wasp face images more rapidly and accurately than non-face images or manipulated faces. This allows for a comparison between how facial recognition may have evolved in small insect brains compared to larger primate brains.

Researchers have also shown that wasps (and bees) can learn to discriminate between images of human faces.

The role of wasps in pollination and pest control

Wasps play an important role in many ecosystems by controlling pests and pollinating flowers. Many Australian orchids, for example, rely on wasps for pollination – as do hundreds of other plant species.

However, wasp pollination has been relatively poorly studied. While the economic value of pollination by bees and other insects has been well researched, the extent of wasp contributions to crop production is currently unknown.

Many wasps eat critters we consider pests, such as bugs, spiders, cockroaches and flies. Indeed, some species of wasp are sold commercially as pest control agents.

Why we respect wasps

Despite their poor public image, wasps display intelligence, and can be useful in agriculture if well managed.

We hope our new work will allow people to appreciate the complexity, intelligence, and value of these misunderstood animals and the importance they can have in the environment. Additionally, as wasps can learn to recognise faces, perhaps being nice to them is a good strategy.

Scarlett Howard has received funding from the Australian Government, RMIT University, Fyssen Foundation, L’Oreal-UNESCO, Australian Academy of Sciences, Hermon Slade Foundation, Deakin University, and Monash University. She has been affiliated with Pint of Science Australia and Triple RRR.

Adrian Dyer receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the USAF AOARD, and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.

– ref. Many people hate wasps, but they’re smarter than you might think – and ecologically important – https://theconversation.com/many-people-hate-wasps-but-theyre-smarter-than-you-might-think-and-ecologically-important-212706

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dulani Jayasuriya, Lecturer in Accounting and Finance, University of Auckland

On the eve of the Rugby World Cup kicking off, there have already been whispers of teams spying on each other. Inevitable gamesmanship, perhaps, but there’s no doubt cheating in sport is a problem authorities struggle to combat.

Our new machine learning model could be a game changer when it comes to detecting questionable behaviour and unusual outcomes – especially the practice of match fixing.

Currently, the act of altering match outcomes for personal or team gain is largely picked up through abnormalities in sports betting markets. When bookmakers notice unusual odds or changes in the betting line, they alert regulators.

But this approach is limited and often fails to identify all match fixing, particularly in less popular sports or leagues. Here is where machine learning can help.

Essentially a subset of artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning acts as a digital probe: mining sports data, revealing hidden patterns, and flagging unusual events. Machines can delve into team performance and unexpected fluctuations, exploring all facets of sports events.

Using AI to spot unusual activity

As part of our research, we introduced the concept of “anomalous match identification”, which involved identifying irregular outcomes in games, no matter what the underlying causes might be.

There could be various factors at play, from strategic losses for future advantage – such as the practice of “tanking” in the US National Basketball league (NBA) – to marketing tactics to boost ticket sales, or just a day of poor performance.

Our research model allows us to flag unusual game results and turn them over to regulators for deeper investigation. By leveraging machine learning, we can spot abnormal matches by comparing our predictions with the actual game results.

Read more:
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When we discuss anomalies in sports, we’re talking about matches that stand out from the norm.

While match fixing – deliberate manipulation of results for gain – is one possible explanation for unusual game results, it’s not the only one. Recognising the many reasons behind unusual match results can also help improve our understanding of the complexities of sports.

In the face of an unusual or unexpected result, spectators and officials may ask themselves: was this the result of an unforeseen strategy or are there other influences at play?

Learning from basketball

Our research methodology involved training machine learning algorithms to discover patterns between specific past events and subsequent game results.

Once these relationships are established, the algorithms can forecast likely future match outcomes. The discrepancies between these predictions and the actual results can flag potentially abnormal matches.

To test our model, we looked at whether there were any out-of-the-ordinary matches in the 2022 NBA playoffs. We built models using data from 2004 to 2020 to forecast match outcomes and then compared what the machine predicted with actual game results.

We found several anomalies in the 2022 playoffs, particularly in a series of games between the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks. In their seven matches against each other in May 2022, Dallas won four games and Phoenix won three.

Read more:
Who will win the 2023 Rugby World Cup? This algorithm uses 10,000 simulations to rank the contenders

According to the data, the anomalies in the 2022 playoffs included a 0.0000064 probability of the Suns and Mavericks actually playing against each other in the semi-final series of NBA’s Western Conference – which includes 15 teams.

We also identified several players with performances during the playoffs that were particularly abnormal based on the data from their previous games.

This is not to say there was any match fixing involved. Rather, our results flag games and players that could then be followed up by regulators if match fixing was a concern – which it was not, this was simply an example to test the model.

This approach to spotting anomalies within a series of matches can be applied across many sports.

Scrutinising a significant number of anomalies can offer valuable insights into unusual match events, helping regulatory bodies and sports organisations conduct thorough investigations and uphold fair competition.

Encouraging trust in sports

Though our study concentrates on specific sports, the principles and techniques can expand to other arenas.

The study shows that machine learning can be utilised to help safeguard the integrity of sports competitions, and to assist regulatory bodies, sports organisations and law enforcement agencies maintain fairness and public trust.

But as we embrace the potential of machine learning, we must also navigate the ethical implications and ensure its transparent use.

The future of sports may well see artificial intelligence become the fans’ ally, helping ensure a level playing field where talent excels, and spectators revel in the authenticity of sporting events.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Machine learning can level the playing field against match fixing – helping regulators spot cheating – https://theconversation.com/machine-learning-can-level-the-playing-field-against-match-fixing-helping-regulators-spot-cheating-209392

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Drew Dawson, Director, Appleton Institute, CQUniversity Australia

Last night you probably slept for seven to eight hours. About one or two of these was likely in deep sleep, especially if you’re young or physically active. That’s because sleep changes with age and exercise affects brain activity. About three or four hours will have been spent in light sleep.

For the remaining time, you were likely in rapid eye movement (REM) sleep. While this is not the only time your brain is potentially dreaming – we also dream during other sleep stages – it is the time your brain activity is most likely to be recalled and reported when you’re awake.

That’s usually because either really weird thoughts or feelings wake you up or because the last hour of sleep is nearly all REM sleep. When dreams or your alarm wake you, you’re likely coming out of dream sleep and your dream often lingers into the first few minutes of being awake. In this case you remember it.

If they’re strange or interesting dreams, you might tell someone else about them, which may further encode the dream memory.

Dreams and nightmares are mysterious and we’re still learning about them. They keep our brains ticking over. They wash the thoughts from the day’s events at a molecular level. They might even help us imagine what’s possible during our waking hours.

What do scientists know about REM sleep and dreaming?

It’s really hard to study dreaming because people are asleep and we can’t observe what’s going on. Brain imaging has indicated certain patterns of brain activity are associated with dreaming (and with certain sleep stages where dreams are more likely to occur). But such studies ultimately rely on self-reports of the dream experience.

Anything we spend so much time doing probably serves multiple ends.

At the basic physiological level (indicated by brain activity, sleep behaviour and studies of conciousness), all mammals dream – even the platypus and echidna probably experience something similar to dreaming (provided they are at the right temperature). Their brain activity and sleep stages align to some degree with human REM sleep.

Less evolved species do not. Some jellyfish – who do not have a brain – do experience what could physiologically be characterised as sleep (shown by their posture, quietness, lack of responsiveness and rapid “waking” when prompted). But they do not experience the same physiological and behavioural elements that resemble REM dream sleep.

In humans, REM sleep is thought to occur cyclically every 90 to 120 minutes across the night. It prevents us from sleeping too deeply and being vulnerable to attack. Some scientists think we dream in order to stop our brains and bodies from getting too cold. Our core body temperature is typically higher while dreaming. It is typically easier to wake from dreaming if we need to respond to external cues or dangers.

The brain activity in REM sleep kicks our brain into gear for a bit. It’s like a periscope into a more conscious state, observing what’s going on at the surface, then going back down if all is well.

Some evidence suggests “fever dreams” are far less common than we might expect. We actually experience far less REM sleep when we have a fever – though the dreams we do have tend to be darker in tone and more unusual.

Spending less time in REM sleep when we’re feverish might happen because we are far less capable of regulating our body temperature in this stage of sleep. To protect us, our brain tries to regulate our temperature by “skipping” this sleep stage. We tend to have fewer dreams when the weather is hot for the same reason.

A deep-cleaning system for the brain

REM sleep is important for ensuring our brain is working as it should, as indicated by studies using electoencephalography, which measures brain activity.

In the same way deep sleep helps the body restore its physical capacity, dream sleep “back-flushes” our neural circuits. At the molecular level, the chemicals that underpin our thinking are bent out of shape by the day’s cognitive activity. Deep sleep is when those chemicals are returned to their unused shape. The brain is “washed” with cerebrospinal fluid, controlled by the glymphatic system.

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At the next level, dream sleep “tidies up” our recent memories and feelings. During REM sleep, our brains consolidate procedural memories (of how to do tasks) and emotions. Non-REM sleep, where we typically expect fewer dreams, is important for the consolidation of episodic memories (events from your life).

As our night’s sleep progresses, we produce more cortisol – the stress hormone. It is thought the amount of cortisol present can impact the type of memories we are consolidating and potentially the types of dreams we have. This means the dreams we have later in the night may be more fragmented or bizarre.

Both kinds of sleep help consolidate the useful brain activity of the day. The brain also discards less important information.

Random thoughts, rearranged feelings

This filing and discarding of the day’s activities is going on while we are sleeping. That’s why we often dream about things that happen during the day.

Sometimes when we’re rearranging the thoughts and feelings to go in the “bin” during sleep, our level of consciousness allows us to experience awareness. Random thoughts and feelings end up all jumbled together in weird and wonderful ways. Our awareness of this process may explain the bizarre nature of some of our dreams. Our daytime experiences can also fuel nightmares or anxiety-filled dreams after a traumatic event.

Some dreams appear to foretell the future or carry potent symbolism. In many societies dreams are believed to be a window into an alternate reality where we can envisage what is possible.

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‘Sleeping on it’ helps you better manage your emotions and mental health – here’s why

What does it all mean?

Our scientific understanding of the thermoregulatory, molecular and basic neural aspects of dreaming sleep is good. But the psychological and spiritual aspects of dreaming remain largely hidden.

Perhaps our brains are wired to try and make sense of things. Human societies have always interpreted the random – birds wheeling, tea leaves and the planets – and looked for meaning. Nearly every human society has regarded dreams as more than just random neural firing.

And the history of science tells us some things once thought to be magic can later be understood and harnessed – for better or worse.

Para penulis tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi di luar afiliasi akademis yang telah disebut di atas.

– ref. The science of dreams and nightmares – what is going on in our brains while we’re sleeping? – https://theconversation.com/the-science-of-dreams-and-nightmares-what-is-going-on-in-our-brains-while-were-sleeping-210901

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tom Williams, Lecturer – Visual Arts, University of Wollongong

Through her poetically constructed images, Hoda Afshar illuminates a world overshadowed by history and atrocity. Yet we never see despair: we see defiance, comradeship, reinvention and a search for how photography can activate new ways of thinking.

Afshar was born in Iran and migrated to Australia in 2007. She began her practice as a documentary photographer in Tehran, having originally been attracted to acting.

Staging and creative intervention would become significant features of her work.

Even in her early, nominally “documentary” series, you can sense an embracing of the ambiguity of the still image, and an interest in composing a reality more vivid (and perhaps genuine) than dispassionate reportage might be capable of.

Afshar is now one of Australia’s most significant photo media artists, so it’s a surprise that Hoda Afshar: A Curve is a Broken Line at the Art Gallery of New South Wales is her first major survey exhibition.

What unites her materially diverse work is a concern with visibility: who is denied it, what is made visible by media, and how photography can reveal, overlook and manipulate truth.

Much of her work addresses critical humanitarian issues of our time: war, statelessness, diaspora, oppression, corruption. She challenges stereotypes. We don’t see passive victims or closed narratives: we are introduced to new perspectives that might lead us to reappraise the world we inhabit.

Read more:
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Familiarity and distance

The exhibition is made up of six bodies of work, the first of which began with the passing away of her father in Iran.

In the exodus, I love you more (2014–) is a portrait of her home country formed by experiences of familiarity and distance. The artist is both at home and searching, like an outsider. Images suggest at times an intimate proximity, and at others a separation akin to the one made by raising a camera to your eye.

Afshar examines her experience of migration and, she tells me, seeks to “dismantle the idea of there being one way of seeing Iran”.

The final image in this series shows the erasure of a woman’s face in a painted Persian miniature.

In the adjoining room, the new series In turn (2023) is a suite of large, framed photographs of Iranian women based in Australia. Many images show them as they tenderly braid one another’s hair. These women are unidentifiable, apart from artist and activist Mahla Karimian, who appears airborne with a pair of flying doves.

This work was catalysed by the women-led protest movement sparked by the death of Mahsa Jina Amini, an Iranian Kurdish woman arrested in September 2022 for not following Iran’s strict female dress codes. The uprising filled the streets with women chanting “Women, Life, Freedom!” and “Say her name!” in fearless defiance of authorities, who responded with murderous retaliation.

Afshar was observing her homeland from afar. She says she wanted to “share voices the media was ignoring”. She was inspired by social media images of women plaiting each other’s hair in public: a rebellious act that echoes a practice of female Kurdish fighters preparing for battle.

But the images aren’t violent. They’re quietly peaceful, showing solidarity in grief, hope and determination. In making this “visual letter” to her Iranian sisters, Afshar has risked long-term exile from her country of birth.

Resolute defiance

Much of Afshar’s work fearlessly tells stories that have been hidden or misrepresented.

Remain (2018) was made in collaboration with asylum seekers detained on Manus Island.

This work is made up of a series of austere, absorbing portraits and a large-scale two-channel video installation.

We see men imprisoned in a place that would otherwise resemble paradise. We hear their voices recounting experiences of trauma and displacement. But, with Afshar, they co-create performative, narrative-evoking works that avoid degrading cliches of victimhood.

The most widely recognised image in this series is a portrait of Kurdish Iranian writer and filmmaker Behrouz Boochani, who chose to be pictured alongside fire. Smoke and flames echo the ardent strength of his gaze. This strength allowed him to emerge a free man after six years of incarceration.

In Behold (2016), once more we see acts of resolute defiance by people performing for the camera. Afshar was invited by a group of gay men to observe re-enacted gestures of protection and intimacy outlawed in most of the Middle East.

Unable to freely express their love in society, they disclose and affirm it for Afshar and her lens.

Agonistes (2020) pays homage to a group of Australian whistleblowers who appear as a Greek chorus of heroic truth tellers.

Created through a complex process of photographic recording and 3D printing that conjures lifelike detail, the portraits look like sculpted marble busts. But this rendering leaves the eyes blank, and captions describing the corruption revealed by each figure don’t divulge their names.

Afshar maintains her practice of disclosing truth while protecting those who have the courage to tell it.

Being alive is breaking

Speak the wind (2015–22) returns us to Iran, to the Strait of Hormuz, where “ill winds” are said to blow. African slaves were brought here over centuries, a trade only stopped in the 1920s.

Afshar’s photographs and video imagery explore a place haunted by history. We see the outward manifestations of an invisible wind (dramatically carved rock formations, ripples in water, flowing fabric). Shrouded figures bow on the dry earth, seeking cure from possession by malicious spirits.

Afshar investigates to what extent we are captives of history (in Australia we must grapple with the legacy of colonisation). In making this lyrical work, Afshar again collaborated with local people, some who made drawings of “wind spirits” they said they had encountered.

The title of the exhibition was inspired by lines in a poem by Kaveh Akbar:

a curve is a straight line broken at all its points so much
of being alive is breaking.

Hoda Afshar’s work addresses conflict, injustice, mobility and the often fragile state of being alive. It reminds us that dominant powers can be challenged by exposing truth and envisioning something new.

Read more:
Friday essay: 10 photography exhibitions that defined Australia

Hoda Afshar: A Curve is a Broken Line is at the Art Gallery of New South Wales until January 21 2024.

Tom Williams does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How photography can reveal, overlook and manipulate truth: the fearless work of Australian Iranian artist Hoda Afshar – https://theconversation.com/how-photography-can-reveal-overlook-and-manipulate-truth-the-fearless-work-of-australian-iranian-artist-hoda-afshar-211994

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jacob Maher, PhD Candidate, University of Adelaide

Do you buy plants online? You might be breaking the law without even knowing it.

We found hundreds of different invasive plants and prohibited weeds advertised on a popular online marketplace.

For the first time, our research has exposed the frequent, high volume trade in pest plants across Australia.

State and territory governments are adopting our automated surveillance approach to help regulate the online trade in plants and other wildlife. Biosecurity officers can receive automatic alerts for suspected illegal trade, rather than manually monitoring websites or relying on reports from the public.

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What’s the problem and why all the fuss?

Certain plants are prohibited in Australia because they are harmful to our unique natural environment and agricultural industries. These weeds can threaten native species, fuel severe fires and choke rivers.

Weeds are also a social and cultural threat for First Nations people, because they can compete with traditional food and medicine plants, causing them to decline.

Overall, invasive plants are estimated to have cost Australia A$200 billion since 1960.

Weeds that are controlled under state and territory laws are referred to as “noxious” or declared plants. Each state and territory has different laws prohibiting the sale and cultivation of these declared plants.

Compliance is generally high within the horticultural industry, save for the occasional high profile blunder. The main problem for Australia is the widespread invasive plant trade on public online marketplaces.

Trade of ornamental plants, which are the kinds popularly grown in homes and gardens, is the major current pathway enabling invasion and spread of weeds into new areas. They’re travelling long distances, to homes in new places.

Invasive cacti and ornamental pond plants are among the most frequently advertised plants, but many are banned from sale and distribution in Australia.

Internet trade has historically been tricky to monitor and regulate, which has led to a variety of invasive species being widely traded.

Read more:
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Scraping the web

We used specialised software called “web scrapers” to monitor trade on a public classifieds website. These automated web tools can be used to rapidly harvest information from advertisements. This allowed us to detect thousands of advertisements for weeds over a 12-month period.

We found 155 declared plant species traded on one website, and we suspect there could be more.

Prickly pear cacti were among the most frequently traded declared plants. This is concerning given their history in Australia. In the 1920s, about 25 million hectares of land became unusable due to prickly pear invasion.

Aquatic weeds were another popular group. That includes water hyacinth, which is the world’s most widespread invasive alien species according to a recently published global assessment.

We found some sellers advertised uses for the declared plants they were trading, including for food and medicinal properties.

Aquatic weeds were often stated to have water-filtering properties and provide habitat for fish. Those traits make Amazon frogbit a popular choice for aquariums and ponds, but if the weed enters creeks and rivers it can have devastating consequences.

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Everyone can do their bit

Better surveillance is not the only solution. Public awareness is key to reducing invasive plant trade. We can all make informed decisions about the plants we buy.

A significant hurdle is a phenomenon called “plant blindness”. People tend to find plants harder to recognise than animals. We found many weeds sold using generic names such as lily, cactus or pond plant. Some people may not even know the true identity of a plant they are selling, let alone that it is a weed and illegal to trade.

Another complication is the fact that laws differ between states. Plants that might be legal for an interstate trader, might still be illegal for you to buy. This is why caution should be taken when sending or receiving plants by post. Always check your local regulations before buying or selling a plant online. You can find out what is declared on your state or territory’s biosecurity website or on Weeds Australia.

Online marketplaces must also cooperate with local policies. These platforms should be enforced to self-regulate trade and include measures to prevent illegal advertisements from being posted in the first place. Failure to act may result in significant penalties from governments. Last year the Brazilian government fined Meta for failing to remove illegal wildlife trade from Facebook and WhatsApp.

For now, monitoring tools such as the web scrapers we have developed will help to prevent some weeds escaping backyards and into bushland. As plant lovers, it’s important to be mindful of the plants we choose to buy and keep.

Read more:
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Jacob Maher receives funding from the Centre for Invasive Species Solutions.

Phill Cassey receives funding from the Centre for Invasive Species Solutions and the Australian Research Council.

– ref. Exposing Australia’s online trade in pest plants – we’ve found thousands of illegal advertisements – https://theconversation.com/exposing-australias-online-trade-in-pest-plants-weve-found-thousands-of-illegal-advertisements-212647

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Legge, Professor of Wildlife Ecology, Australian National University

Federal Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek has released a draft feral cat management plan.

Its aim is to reduce the devastating impact of cats on Australian wildlife, with a focus on protecting the most at-risk species from extinction.

Cats kill over 6 million native animals in Australia each day, and are challenging to manage.

The plan has a ten-year horizon with an estimated cost of A$60 million in the first five years. It could be a major step towards achieving Australia’s global commitments to end extinctions.

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Why manage cats?

Unless we control the impact of cats, many native wildlife populations will continue to decline. Some will be driven to extinction, a sad and irreversible outcome for future generations and the ecosystems these species are part of.

Cats are versatile and highly effective predators. A large male cat can kill animals up to about 4kg – nearly as big as the cat itself.

Since they arrived in Australia with Europeans, cats have spread across 99% of the country. Only some islands and specially constructed fenced conservation areas are cat-free.

Many native animal populations can’t cope with sustained hunting pressure from cats. Impacted species include more than 200 of Australia’s nationally listed threatened species and 37 migratory species.

One in ten of the mammal species present when cats arrived are now extinct. Cats played a major role in most of those 34 extinctions. And they continue to drive population declines and regional extinctions of susceptible species.

Cats also carry and spread a range of diseases. One of these, toxoplasmosis, can cause sickness, behavioural impairment and death in other mammals and birds. This disease, which is entirely dependent on cats, can also have serious consequences for livestock and human health.

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A strategic response

The government’s new Threat Abatement Plan aims to co-ordinate national efforts to reduce the impacts of feral cats on native wildlife. It follows extensive consultation with Indigenous ranger groups and First Nations organisations around the country, with members of the national Feral Cat Taskforce, and with threatened species and cat management experts.

Since cats occur just about everywhere, affect so many species and are elusive and hard to control, the plan is strategic: it prioritises the places and species for which controlling cats will have the greatest benefits.

Some significant successes have been achieved over the past decade or so, and the plan builds on those.

What are the priorities?

The plan’s objective is to improve outcomes for threatened and cat-susceptible native species, including numbats, bettongs, bandicoots and island-nesting seabirds.

Building from recent successes, it includes priorities for eradicating cats from islands and from within fenced conservation areas, because cats cannot quickly recolonise these areas. These projects are critical for native species, such as stick-nest rats and mala (rufous hare-wallaby), that can’t persist even with a very low density of cats.

The plan also prioritises ongoing cat control in areas with important populations of threatened species that are highly vulnerable to cats, but which can persist as long as cat numbers are kept low.

This approach is valuable for species such as rock wallabies, which live in relatively small, well-defined areas, and for mammals of south-west Australia, which can be protected from cats and foxes by annual poison baiting.

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Improving habitat management can also help reduce cat impacts across very large areas. For example, improving habitat in northern Australian tropical savannas, through better management of fire and livestock, can reduce cat impacts and increase native mammal populations. Cats hunt most efficiently in sparsely vegetated areas, so better cover provides more shelter for native wildlife.

In southern Australia, reducing rabbit populations also reduces cat numbers by removing an easy food source. This then relieves some of the predation pressure on native animals.

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What else is in the plan?

The plan proposes reforms of laws and regulations for pet and feral cats in all states and territories. For example, the plan includes actions to make laws on pet cat management more consistent across the country and to encourage responsible pet ownership. This means desexing cats and keeping cats contained so they can’t harm wildlife or produce kittens that end up as feral cats.

Read more:
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Many of Australia’s last strongholds for threatened species that are vulnerable to cats, such as great desert skinks, bilbies and night parrots, are in Indigenous Protected Areas and other Indigenous-managed land. The plan outlines practical support that Indigenous rangers want to help them manage cats.

Over the past few decades, we have learned much about the impacts of cats and how best to manage them. But we are still a long way from cost-effective, continent-scale solutions to protect native wildlife. The plan identifies the need for new applied research and the development and testing of effective control tools.

Who’s responsible?

Success will depend on focusing and enhancing the already significant efforts of governments, Indigenous and non-Indigenous land managers, environmental non-government organisations, industry, community groups, researchers and the public.

The Australian government will help to deliver the plan by co-ordinating actions and making strategic investments in management and research activity.

Read more:
One cat, one year, 110 native animals: lock up your pet, it’s a killing machine

Be part of the solution

Every Australian who cares about our unique wildlife has an interest in cat management.

Cat owners can help by desexing their pet and keeping it indoors or in a cat run at all times.

Landowners can help by removing refuse that helps support feral cat colonies and by managing habitat so native animals can thrive.

And make sure your local, state and federal government members know how much you care about native wildlife.

The plan is available for public comment until December 11. Have a look, and have your say.

Sarah Legge receives funding from the Australian Research Council. In the past she has received funding for cat research from the Australian Government. She is a member of the Australian Government’s Threatened Species Scientific Committee, and the Feral Cat Taskforce, and contributed to the drafting of the new cat threat abatement plan. She is a scientific advisor to the Invasive Species Council, and to several on-ground cat management projects (e.g. Christmas Island cat eradication project; Wild Deserts Project). She is a member of the Biodiversity Council.

Jaana Dielenberg is part of the Biodiversity Council and is employed by The University of Melbourne. She is a member of the Ecological Society of Australia and Invertebrates Australia. Many of the findings reported in this article came from research by the National Environmental Science Program Threatened Species Recovery Hub, which Jaana Dielenberg was a part of.

John Woinarski is a Director of the Australian Wildlife Conservancy, and has undertaken research on the impacts of cats, in part funded by the Australian government. He is also a member of the national Feral Cat Taskforce, and the BIodiversity Council.

– ref. 10-year feral cat plan brings us a step closer to properly protecting endangered wildlife – https://theconversation.com/10-year-feral-cat-plan-brings-us-a-step-closer-to-properly-protecting-endangered-wildlife-212976

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter O’Sullivan, Professor of Musculoskeletal Physiotherapy, Curtin University

If you haven’t had lower back pain, it’s likely you know someone who has. It affects around 40% of adults in any year, ranging from adolescents to those in later life. While most people recover, around 20% go on to develop chronic low back pain (lasting more than three months).

There is a common view that chronic low back pain is caused by permanent tissue damage including “wear and tear”, disc degeneration, disc bulges and arthritis of the spine. This “damage” is often described as resulting from injury and loading of the spine (such as bending and lifting), ageing, poor posture and weak “core” muscles.

We’re often told to “protect” our back by sitting tall, bracing the core, keeping a straight back when bending and lifting, and avoiding movement and activities that are painful. Health practitioners often promote and reinforce these messages.

But this is not based on evidence. An emerging treatment known as cognitive functional therapy aims to help patients undo some of these unhelpful and restrictive practices, and learn to trust and move their body again.

Read more:
Having ‘good’ posture doesn’t prevent back pain, and ‘bad’ posture doesn’t cause it

People are often given the wrong advice

People with chronic back pain are often referred for imaging scans to detect things like disc degeneration, disc bulges and arthritis.

But these findings are very common in people without low back pain and research shows they don’t accurately predict a person’s current or future experience of pain.

Once serious causes of back pain have been ruled out (such as cancer, infection, fracture and nerve compression), there is little evidence scan findings help guide or improve the care for people with chronic low back pain.

In fact, scanning people and telling them they have arthritis and disc degeneration can frighten them, resulting in them avoiding activity, worsening their pain and distress.

It can also lead to potentially harmful treatments such as opioid pain medications, and invasive treatments such as spine injections, spine surgery and battery-powered electrical stimulation of spinal nerves.

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Opioids don’t relieve acute low back or neck pain – and can result in worse pain, new study finds

So how should low back pain be treated?

A complex range of factors typically contribute to a person developing chronic low back pain. This includes over-protecting the back by avoiding movement and activity, the belief that pain is related to damage, and negative emotions such as pain-related fear and anxiety.

Addressing these factors in an individualised way is now considered best practice.

Best practice care also needs to be person-centred. People suffering from chronic low back pain want to be heard and validated. They want to understand why they have pain in simple language.

They want care that considers their preferences and gives a safe and affordable pathway to pain relief, restoring function and getting back to their usual physical, social and work-related activities.

An example of this type of care is cognitive functional therapy.

What is cognitive functional therapy?

Cognitive functional therapy is about putting the person in the drivers’ seat of their back care, while the clinician takes the time to guide them to develop the skills needed to do this. It’s led by physiotherapists and can be used once serious causes of back pain have been ruled out.

The therapy helps the person understand the unique contributing factors related to their condition, and that pain is usually not an accurate sign of damage. It guides patients to relearn how to move and build confidence in their back, without over-protecting it.

It also addresses other factors such as sleep, relaxation, work restrictions and engaging in physical activity based on the person’s preferences.

Cognitive functional therapy usually involves longer physiotherapy sessions than usual (60 minutes initially and 30-45 minute follow-ups) with up to seven to eight sessions over three months and booster sessions when required.

Read more:
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What’s the evidence for this type of therapy?

Our recent clinical trial of cognitive functional therapy, published in The Lancet, included 492 people with chronic low back pain. The participants had pain for an average of four years and had tried many other treatments.

We first trained 18 physiotherapists to competently deliver cognitive functional therapy across Perth and Sydney over six months. We compared the therapy to the patient’s “usual care”.

We found large and sustained improvements in function and reductions in pain intensity levels for people who underwent the therapy, compared with those receiving usual care.

The effects remained at 12 months, which is unusual in low back pain trials. The effects of most recommended interventions such as exercise or psychological therapies are modest in size and tend to be of short duration.

People who underwent cognitive functional therapy were also more confident, less fearful and had a more positive mindset about their back pain at 12 months. They also liked it, with 80% of participants satisfied or highly satisfied with the treatment, compared with 19% in the usual care group.

The treatment was as safe as usual care and was also cost-effective. It saved more than A$5,000 per person over a year, largely due to increased participation at work.

What does this mean for you?

This trial shows there are safe, relatively cheap and effective treatments options for people living with chronic pain, even if you’ve tried other treatments without success.

Access to clinicians trained in cognitive functional therapy is currently limited but will expand as training is scaled up.

The costs depend on how many sessions you have. Our studies show some people improve a lot within two to three sessions, but most people had seven to eight sessions, which would cost around A$1,000 (aside from any Medicare or private health insurance rebates).

Read more:
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Peter O’Sullivan is a Director and consults at bodylogic.physio. He receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council.

JP Caneiro is a Director and consults at bodylogic.physio. He has received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council.

Mark Hancock received NHMRC funding for grants paid to his university, including for the RESTORE study of cognitive functional therapy.

Peter Kent’s employing institution (Curtin University) received funding from Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (grant number 1145271) for the clinical trial mentioned in this article.

– ref. What is cognitive functional therapy? How can it reduce low back pain and get you moving? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-cognitive-functional-therapy-how-can-it-reduce-low-back-pain-and-get-you-moving-207009

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amy Peden, NHMRC Research Fellow, School of Population Health & co-founder UNSW Beach Safety Research Group, UNSW Sydney

We know more people drown in summer. It’s the perfect time to visit the beach, river or local pool. Aussies love hitting the water to cool down.

But the connection between drowning and heatwaves in Australia has not been explored until now. Our new research, published today in the journal Injury Prevention, is the first to examine this link.

We found drowning risk during heatwaves was highest for males, older people and teenagers. But people of all ages were more likely to die from swimming or bathing in the heat. Drowning risk increased during low-intensity heatwaves and was higher still during severe heatwaves, but dropped back a little during extreme heatwaves, though the risk remained higher than usual.

Based on our findings, we want to raise awareness of drowning risk ahead of predicted heatwaves. We also offer strategies people can use to reduce their risk of drowning.

Read more:
‘Drowning for love’ – 5 ways to protect your life while you’re trying to rescue someone in trouble in the water

Drowning and climate change

Drowning deaths are at an generational high in this country. Fatalities are the highest they’ve been since 1996.

A range of factors contribute to this upward trend, including climate. Drowning is inextricably linked to climate drivers such as extreme rainfall, as seen in the tragic flood emergencies across northern New South Wales. In 2021-22, 13% of drowning deaths in Australia were flood-related.

Overseas, warmer winters have led to an increase in drowning deaths in typically ice-covered regions, due to ice instability.

What we did

Using data from both the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Bureau of Meteorology we looked at Queensland between 2010 and 2019. We examined the “incidence rate ratio” of drowning on a heatwave day compared to a non-heatwave day.

This means we compared the 248 non-heatwave drowning deaths and 603,892 non-heatwave days, with the 92 heatwave drowning deaths occurring on 191,420 heatwave days. In this way, we sought to identify any increased risk of drowning.

Queensland is a vast state that experiences wide variations in climate, so it’s a good case study.

What we found

We identified a 17% greater risk of drowning during a heatwave, compared to non-heatwave days. Within this though, there are variations.

Men were 22% more likely to drown during a heatwave than during non-heatwave days, compared to 5% for women. People 65 and over were 36% more likely to drown on heatwave days. This was higher than children and teenagers (24% more likely) and 20-64-year olds (7% more likely).

There was also a difference in terms of the activities we are doing in the water.

Drowning risk during heatwaves was highest for swimming and bathing-related drowning with a 28% increase compared to a non-heatwave day.

The risk of drowning due to a water transport-related incident (such as boating) was 27% lower during a heatwave.

The level of risk varies

We also found the link between heatwaves and drowning risk is not linear, meaning risk doesn’t necessarily climb as the temperature does. As heatwave intensity increases, so does drowning risk but only to a point. While risk rises from 17% during low-intensity heatwaves to 26% during severe heatwaves, risk of drowning reduced to just 9% during extreme heatwaves (the highest intensity).

Our results suggest hotter temperatures see more people in the water and therefore exposure to risk of drowning increases. For those with pre-existing medical conditions exacerbated by the heat, this likely also contributes to drowning risk.

Read more:
‘Your first emotion is panic’: rips cause many beach drownings, but we can learn from the survivors

Staying safe this summer

It’s important to communicate the increased drowning risk ahead of predicted heatwaves, just as we do ahead of other peak periods for drowning such as public and school holidays. It is also vital to educate people on simple strategies they can take to reduce their risk of drowning.

Some advice is pertinent regardless of the temperature. These include encouraging people to swim between the flags at patrolled beaches, supervising young children around the water, and wearing a lifejacket when boating or rock fishing.

But other safety messaging may be even more relevant during heatwaves. Alcohol intoxication dramatically increases drowning risk and our previous research on alcohol consumption at rivers shows a clear link between excessive drinking and the air temperature. That is, the hotter it is, the more people drink.

And given drowning risk increases for people with particular medical conditions, such as epilepsy and cardiac conditions, it is important to be mindful of the increased risk to health that is present during a heatwave, even before entering the water.

What it means for those who keep us safe

Our research findings also have important implications for those who provide supervision around water, such as pool lifeguards and surf life savers.

During heatwaves, patrols could be staggered, starting earlier, with a break in the middle of the day, and extending longer into the evening, particularly with the sun setting later and warmer temperatures continuing into the night.

Extra resources are likely to be needed during low and severe heatwaves, but not necessarily heatwaves which reach extreme levels, as there appears to be a change in people’s behaviour and thus reduced drowning risk.

Those who respond to drowning emergencies must also prepare for more drowning incidents during heatwave conditions. Our excess mortality calculations identify heatwaves contributed to an additional 13 drowning deaths between 2010 and 2019.

Action on climate change is urgently needed for a range of reasons, including drowning risk. With global heat records being broken, Australia needs to be prepared for a potentially cruel summer and if you’re planning to hit the water, we urge you to be safe.

Read more:
The 8 deadly days of Christmas: how to stay safe from drowning in Australia this summer

Amy Peden is an honorary Senior Research Fellow with Royal Life Saving Society – Australia and is the co-founder of the UNSW Beach Safety Research Group. She receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council.

Hannah Mason receives funding from the Queensland Government Department of Environment and Science.

Jemma King is affiliated with the Australian Health Promotion Association and holds an executive position with the Queensland Branch.

Richard Franklin receives funding from Queensland Government Department of Environment and Science, Agrifutures, and Queensland Government Fire and Emergency Services. He is affiliated with Royal Life Saving Society – Australia as a Volunteer Board Member and Senior Research Officer, Kidsafe as President and Board member, Farmsafe Australia as a Board Member, Australasian College of Tropical Medicine as a Board Member, and the Public Health Association of Australia as Co-Convenor of the Injury Prevention Special Interest Group.

– ref. Drowning risk increases during heatwaves in unexpected ways – here’s how to stay safe this summer – https://theconversation.com/drowning-risk-increases-during-heatwaves-in-unexpected-ways-heres-how-to-stay-safe-this-summer-212095

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ryan Day, Senior research fellow, University of Tasmania

Woodside Energy this week announced it would start seismic testing for its Scarborough gas project off Australia’s west coast, before reversing the decision in the face of a legal challenge from Traditional Owners.

Seismic testing is highly controversial in marine environments. The federal regulator (the National Offshore Petroleum Safety and Environmental Management Authority) is currently examining a proposal for seismic testing in the Otway Basin in Bass Strait, which conservationists say has attracted more than 30,000 public submissions.

Seismic testing is also mooted as part of the “PEP11” (Petroleum Exploration Permit 11) off the coast of New South Wales, from Manly to Newcastle.

As marine biologists with research expertise in this field, here we give a roundup of the latest evidence on the effects of seismic surveys. It shows there are many potential harms to marine life, and many unanswered questions.

Read more:
Underwater noise is a threat to marine life

What are seismic surveys?

Marine seismic surveys are used to search for oil and gas, places to stash greenhouse gases, and potential locations for wind farms.

The surveys use air guns to generate sound signals. These sound signals are intense (loud, at high decibel levels) and “impulsive” (sharp, like a balloon popping). In the open ocean, sound waves can be detected thousands of kilometres from the source.

The sound can penetrate more than ten kilometres into the earth beneath the seafloor. The way the signals reflect off different layers of the seabed can identify geological structures, including those that contain mineral deposits such as oil and gas. The sound signals bounce back to acoustic receivers (hydrophones) towed behind the survey vessel on cables known as streamers.

During a survey, sound signals are generated every four to ten seconds, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Surveys can last for weeks or months, and cover thousands of square kilometres of ocean. The proposal to study the Otway Basin, for example, covers 45,000 square km.

Seismic surveys and marine life

The ability to fully examine the effects of seismic surveys in mammals is limited, because invasive methods are not logistically possible or ethically acceptable.

But there is a long history of research on whales and dolphins, given their reliance on sound to communicate, find food and navigate.

Observations of marine mammals show intense sound signals such as those from seismic surveys can affect hearing ability, either temporarily or permanently, depending on the intensity, range and duration of exposure.

Noise pollution can mask communications, causing whales either to sing more loudly or to stop singing altogether, which can affect social structure and interaction. Seismic surveys can also alter the presence and abundance of marine mammal prey.

What about fish?

Fish also show a range of responses to seismic testing. Some fish exhibit physical damage to hearing organs and signs of stress.

Fish behaviour may also change. Some leave regular feeding or breeding areas, which raises concerns over effects to fishing grounds or impacts on important prey species. It’s also uncertain whether the fish will be able to find suitable alternative habitats if they are displaced in the long term.

Others may “habituate” or become accustomed to exposure, raising the risk of more extensive damage by spending more time in the survey area.

Scallops, lobsters and plankton

Despite invertebrates making up around 92% of marine species, the impact of marine noise on these creatures has only recently been studied. This has shown a potential for harm.

In the valuable southern rock lobster fishery, off the coasts of Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania, seismic air gun exposure damaged the sensory organ that provides a sense of gravity and balance, similar to the human inner ear. Affected lobsters also had impaired ability to right themselves when placed upside down, a reflex that underpins important behaviours such as escaping predators.

Scallops showed more severe impacts, with up to four times higher death rates and a range of other sub-lethal effects including altered behaviour, impaired physiology and a disrupted immune system. As this animal already suffers high levels of mortality naturally and due to fishery activity, this extra pressure could be of considerable concern.

Invertebrates also make up a large proportion of the zooplankton community, a broad group of very small animals carried by ocean currents. They are food for a wide range of marine life, from other zooplankton to small fish and whales.

In the first experimental exposure to a seismic air gun, a large proportion of zooplankton died. Overall abundance decreased significantly, at distances up to 1.2km from the air gun.

Confirming this result, another recent study of zooplankton found exposure to seismic air guns 50 metres away resulted in increased mortality immediately after exposure. The plankton continued to die off or suffer impaired development for several days. These effects, particularly in the case of exposure that is repeated over the course of months within a single area, have the potential to severely impact the plankton populations that underpin marine food webs.

Read more:
Australian humpback whales are singing less and fighting more. Should we be worried?

Difficulties in predicting impacts

While the handful of available studies shows exposure to seismic surveys can harm animals, our ability to understand or predict what happens in the wild is still very limited.

Part of the problem is conflicting results. For example, in one case, seismic survey exposure had no impact on the types of fish found in an area or their behaviour. And a separate study of scallops found no mortality after seismic exposure. These studies conflict with the results we described earlier, which happens commonly in science and highlights the need for ever more detailed research.

Only a few animal species have so far been investigated, making it hard to tell how other animals might be affected by seismic testing. There are also limitations to the methods of studies that reduce our ability to understand the real-world impacts, such as housing animals in captivity after exposure.

Sound behaves very differently in water than in air. Water is more dense, allowing sound to travel faster, farther and with less of a drop in intensity. Comparisons between the “loudness” of sounds in air and water are not straightforward.

While mounting evidence shows seismic surveys can harm a range of marine animals, there is so much still to learn.

Read more:
Australia has introduced a new bill that will allow us to ship carbon emissions overseas. Here’s why that’s not a great idea

Ryan Day has received funding and/or research contributions from the Australian Government through the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation, Beach Energy, CGG, ConocoPhillips, Origin Energy, the CarbonNet Project, the Victorian Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources.

Jayson Semmens has received funding and/or research contributions from the Australian Government through the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation, Beach Energy, CGG, ConocoPhillips, Origin Energy, the CarbonNet Project, the Victorian Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources.

Robert McCauley receives funding from industry and Government to study impacts of seismic on marine fauna, which over his career includes: Fisheries Research and Development Corporation (FRDC); Beach Energy; CGG; University of Tasmania; Australian Institute of Marine Science; Australian Petroleum Production Exploration Association (APPEA); Bureau Offshore Energy and Minerals (BOEM, USA); Joint Industry Program (JIP); Woodside Energy; Origin Energy; Santos; Apache Energy (now Quadrant); and Roc Oil.

– ref. Whales stop singing and rock lobsters lose their balance: how seismic surveys can harm marine life – https://theconversation.com/whales-stop-singing-and-rock-lobsters-lose-their-balance-how-seismic-surveys-can-harm-marine-life-211207

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alyssa Clare Milton, Senior Research Fellow, University of Sydney

Outside school hours care – also known as “school-aged care”, “OOSH” or “afters” – is booming.

As of 2020, it was the fastest-growing childcare sector in Australia. As of 2022, it catered to 486,310 primary school children.

Enrolments have surged by 111% over the past 20 years, as more mothers have worked as they raise their children.

However, there is a lack of consistency in quality. About 14% of services fall short of the national quality standards for these services, and only 11% are exceeding them.

Our new research shows how designing activities with children and their communities can help improve the quality of these services.

What is outside school hours care?

School hours tend to be between about 8.45am and 3.15pm, meaning many families need extra care for their children. For many, outside school hours care is an essential service.

Services run before school, after school and during school holidays. Often they are located on school grounds.

There are nearly 5,000 such services around Australia, each with individual working hours and fees. The average cost as of 2021 was A$7.85 per hour, and many families qualify for government childcare subsidies to reduce this rate.

Children are usually given food, and choose between planned and spontaneous activities such as games, crafts, reading and self-directed play. But it can also involve extracurricular activities in STEM (such as work with LEGO or computing), dance, drama, music and sport.

Read more:
As fees keep climbing, this is why competition isn’t enough to deliver cheaper childcare

Why quality is important

Services are usually delivered by not-for-profit organisations and private companies, but can also be run by parents via a school’s P&C committee.

All providers must be approved by the Australian Children’s Education and Care Quality Authority. High-quality services see staff reflecting on how to improve what they do and having meaningful engagement with families and the wider community.

Since students can potentially spend more than 10,000 hours in outside school hours care throughout their primary years, this is a big opportunity to support Australian children.

A 2021 Griffith University report for the New South Wales Department of Education emphasised how these services should be “more than just convenient care”. They have potential to be a significant part of children’s education and development beyond formal schooling.

Our program

Since 2016, the University of Sydney’s Brain and Mind Centre and not-for-profit service provider Uniting NSW/ACT have been researching how children’s wellbeing can be supported through outside school hours care.

Together with children and their communities, we have co-designed the “Connect Promote and Protect Program”. This encourages children, their educators and volunteers to create activities that broaden their experiences, promote social connections, and enhance their wellbeing.

Involving children in this way is not a new idea. The United Nations has long viewed children as competent humans with the right to contribute to decisions that affect their lives. The national framework for school-age care also notes the importance of listening to children.

In our program, children are given opportunities to generate ideas via voting, surveys, small group workshops and conversations. Then they decide on an activity and can help run it.

The activities have ranged from a robotics program, to knitting beanies for people experiencing homelessness, drama sessions to build confidence in acting and public speaking, and lawn bowls at a local club to improve coordination skills and community connections.

Services are provided with training and resources, and typically run the program one day a week for two terms. It is designed so there are no extra costs for families.

Read more:
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Our new study

Our new study evaluated our program in five services in public and private primary schools across Sydney.

For example, one service chose a “woodwork cafe” to develop woodworking skills. Trained volunteers from the local community supported children in building their own chicken coop at the after-school site.

A volunteer brought a chicken for an initial visit so children could interact with and learn about chickens before baby chickens arrived. Another family provided two baby chickens and an incubator for hatchlings.

The process was documented with updates and photos, enhancing children’s and their family’s engagement and excitement. This also included information on how pets can promote wellbeing, and links to community resources about children’s wellbeing.

As one child told us:

when you do this activity everyone is running to do it.

An increase in kindness

Four services in our study collected quantitative data. After the program – which required group work and cooperation – we found children across these four services showed an increase in kindness, and there was a reduction in problems such as bullying.

This was measured by the standard “strengths and difficulties questionnaire” used by psychologists and educators. For example, at the start of the program, 55.6% of children had the highest possible score for prosocial behaviours (doing something to benefit someone else), which increased to 71.6% after the program.

Educators told us about children working together and helping each other. One parent observed children “being patient to hear each one out as well”. Another educator explained how they saw children taking ownership and “really speaking up”. They added:

We’ve really seen that change in dynamic of that communication now [of children saying] ‘Hey, this is my [service]. This is the program that I want to do’.

The also spoke of seeing better engagement from children who did not usually participate in activities. One service manager said high-quality after-school programs could “capture” children who were facing issues with regular school:

we can create a space in an [after-school service] that supports […] and engages those children. It gives them a sense of belonging [so] they know that they matter.

Educator benefits

Educators also reported a greater sense of community and wellbeing at work. This is important, as staff satisfaction and wellbeing is a crucial element of a high-quality program. We know staff turnover and churn in the sector is high.

Educators in our study spoke of how the process of co-design with children helped them develop new ways of engaging with children. As one educator educator reported:

I really connected in a different way for the first time.

Beyond babysitting

Our research underscores the need to ensure services are more than just a convenience or a place to babysit children while their parents finish work.

Government and policymakers need to invest more heavily in these services, so training and programs can be delivered to promote the wellbeing of children, educators and their wider communities — ultimately enhancing the quality of these essential services.

The Connect, Promote, and Protect Program has an executed intellectual property agreement between the University of Sydney (Alyssa Milton and Ian Hickie) and Uniting NSW.ACT.

Ian Hickie is the Co-Director, Health and Policy at the Brain and Mind Centre (BMC) University of Sydney. He is the Chief Scientific Advisor to, and a 3.2% equity shareholder in, InnoWell Pty Ltd. that pursues transformation of mental health services internationally through the use of innovative technologies.

Karen Thorpe receives funding from the Australian Research Council as a chief investigator in the ARC centre of Excellence for children and Families across the life course and as an ARC Laureate Fellow. She is affiliated with the Australian Research Alliance for Children and Youth as a board member and Beyond Blue as a member off the National Advisory Council for Be You.

Tom McClean is Head of Research and Social Policy at Uniting NSW/ACT.

– ref. Nearly 500,000 Australian kids go to after school care – it needs to be more than a babysitting service – https://theconversation.com/nearly-500-000-australian-kids-go-to-after-school-care-it-needs-to-be-more-than-a-babysitting-service-212195

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Iain White, Professor of Environmental Planning, University of Waikato

He was, said George Bernard Shaw, “one of those heroic simpletons who do big things whilst our prominent worldlings are explaining why they are Utopian and impossible”.

The celebrated playwright was referring to the ideas of Ebenezer Howard, the creative force behind the idea of “garden cities” in the late 19th and early 20th centuries; new urban centres that Howard argued would have the best of town and country, but without the problems.

There’s a reminder of that somewhat backhanded compliment in the recent news of a Silicon Valley consortium named Flannery Associates buying land with a view to creating a new city in northern California’s Solano County. The controversial project is named after the investment vehicle’s parent company, California Forever.

The parallels between contemporary utopian thinking and Howard’s ideas from more than a century ago are readily apparent. The notion of something like California Forever may appear cutting edge, but it is part of the historical foundations of current planning systems.

Indeed, the science-fiction writer H.G. Wells – a futurist whose own ideas would resonate with many in Silicon Valley – was so attracted to Howard’s ideas that he joined the Garden City Association to support their creation.

Garden city visions

Any kind of new city model tends to reflect the politics of its founders. The vision and plans stretch beyond the built form to picture a preferred lifestyle, and interactions with nature and each other.

The artist’s renderings accompanying the California Forever project depict an attractive, harmonious landscape familiar to utopian thinking: plentiful parks, open spaces and sustainable energy.

Read more:
What is a garden city – and why is money being spent on building them?

It encapsulates a politics of urban living that also emphasises the need to recast our relationships with nature. As such, these ideas also involve a large dose of social engineering. They are not just about creating a new built environment, they envision a new kind of society that’s better than the current one.

But the garden cities that were eventually developed were a far cry from Howard’s initial vision. In fact, his ideas from over a hundred years ago make those from Silicon Valley look distinctly dated.

For Howard, it was as much about social reform and organisation as city planning. He advocated for local production and relatively self-contained settlements to reduce the need to travel, as well as innovative ways of treating waste that echo current circular economy thinking.

Planning and profit

Even less like the investment logic behind California Forever, Howard also imagined a city that could challenge some of the precepts of capitalism.

Given the significant deprivation and social divide between haves and have-nots, he advocated that land in garden cities could be organised cooperatively to share wealth and reduce poverty.

Read more:
How should we design cities to make the most of urban ecosystems?

The need to attract investors was one of the reasons Howard’s ambitious politics eroded. To purchase land on that scale requires significant capital, and the providers of that capital would no doubt be looking for a return.

Should California Forever materialise, history would caution us that there may be a similar gap between rhetoric and reality. While Howard’s ideas were partially implemented in places like Letchworth, the focus was more on the built environment than social justice or sustainability.

Howard moved into the new city, but his influence was marginalised by the need to accommodate shareholder interests.

While we don’t know how California Forever has been pitched to investors, it’s a fair assumption it is also shaped by the profit motive: buying cheaper agricultural land, rezoning for housing and development, drawing in state funding for infrastructure, and seeing the land rise in value.

While the images appear sustainable, long-distance commuting may be a problem given the nature of the labour market in California, as might expectations of genuine community involvement in the project. Utopian schemes have long been critiqued for their tendency towards authoritarianism – a charge not unfamiliar to the tech sector in recent times.

Read more:
How do we get urban density ‘just right’? The Goldilocks quest for the ‘missing middle’

Howard’s ideas were also criticised as anti-urban. Shouldn’t we seek to improve existing cities rather than abandon and start anew, possibly to create a gentrified enclave?

For the tech sector, too, there is a recurring utopian trend that seeks to escape – whether to moon colonies or new cities – rather than use its vast wealth and influence to address current urban problems.

Progress and planning

But, ultimately, it’s encouraging to see groups like the Silicon Valley investors advocate for the benefits of good urban planning and what it can provide future generations. The bigger problem is that current planning systems aren’t anything like as progressive.

In many countries, similarly powerful investors routinely criticise urban planning as creating “red tape”, increasing the costs of development, or stopping markets from acting “efficiently”.

Yet the kind of city building represented by California Forever requires greater regulatory power and the kind of political ambition that was more common a century ago. And it raises the question of whether projects like this should be left to the private sector.

At the very least, perhaps, such initiatives provide an opportunity to reassess the potential of urban planning and cast a light on current societal problems. Howard’s utopian vision was designed to solve the problems of his time: exploitative landlords, slums, polluted cities and extreme disparities of wealth.

Whether or not California Forever is built, the reasons behind the idea demonstrate that while history may not repeat, it does sometimes rhyme.

Iain White receives funding from the National Science Challenge: Resilience to Nature’s Challenges – Kia manawaroa – Ngā Ākina o Te Ao Tūroa. He also receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s Endeavour Fund to research issues connected to flood risk mapping and better decision making, and from Toka Tū Ake Natural Hazards Commission to research how to better incorporate risk into future settlement planning.

– ref. Silicon Valley investors want to create a new city – is ‘California Forever’ a utopian dream or just smart business? – https://theconversation.com/silicon-valley-investors-want-to-create-a-new-city-is-california-forever-a-utopian-dream-or-just-smart-business-213062

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

A few days ago, the furore over the government’s rejection of Qatar Airways’ bid for more flights into major cities was all about cheaper tickets and additional seats.

Now the issue has doubled back to become, apparently, at least in part about the mistreatment of the Australian women who were hauled off a flight in 2020 and subjected to invasive body searches, after a newborn was found abandoned in Doha Airport.

Five of the women have a legal case on foot. It is back in the Federal Court on Friday for the 21st time.

Transport Minister Catherine King, in yet another attempt to explain, or dodge explaining, her rejection of the Qatar application, said on radio on Thursday morning that the 2020 incident “wasn’t a factor in the decision, but it was certainly context for the decision”.

This is as baffling as most of the other explanations King and other government members have given. Isn’t “context” a “factor”?

Well yes, it seems. Only an hour or so earlier, at a crack-of-dawn news conference at Canberra airport, where she released a green paper on aviation policy, King suggested the 2020 incident was a factor, although “there was no one factor that influenced my decision in relation to the national interest”. She argued: “I don’t think it’s helpful for me to point to any one factor.”

On Thursday night on the ABC, she did spell out some factors – what was happening in the aviation market, capacity coming back into the market, jobs.

While initially it was thought the 2020 incident might have been a reason behind the decision, King had subsequently indicated that it was not, finally settling on this nebulous concept of the “national interest” to justify the government’s stance.

But the 2020 incident has hung there in the background of the controversy. On July 10, the day she made the decision, King wrote to the five women, who had contacted her strongly opposing the additional access, to assure them Qatar was not being considered for more flights.

In their letter the women had said the airline was “not fit to carry passengers around the globe let alone to major Australian airports”.

“When you are considering Qatar Airways’ bid for extra landing rights, we beg you to consider its insensitive and irresponsible treatment of us,” they wrote. “We implore you to instead consider an airline that will uphold human rights.”

On Monday this week, Foreign Minister Penny Wong had a phone conversation with the prime minister of Qatar.

Wong has said that in the call, which she initiated, they discussed bilateral matters, as well as multilateral issues ahead of the United Nations UN General Assembly meeting later in the month. They did discuss the 2020 incident; they did not canvass the flights matter. That seems extraordinary. After all, the Qatar government owns Qatar Airways and flights involve country-to-country agreements.

Could this resurrection of the 2020 incident be one way of seeking to neutralise an issue that has been debated – to the Albanese government’s detriment – in terms of limiting competition?

King insists she made the decision herself. She says she consulted colleagues, whom she doesn’t name. She has fudged when probed about what her department recommended. She said she told Anthony Albanese of the decision before it became public later in July, but stonewalled when pressed in parliament for the date on which she informed the prime minister.

Before the attention focused on King, Albanese was copping the heat, because the decision was seen to be in line with his perceived closeness to former Qantas CEO Alan Joyce (who quit prematurely this week, as part of that airline’s attempt to quell public anger at it).

King, from the left, is one of the longest-serving House of Representative members, having won the Victorian seat of Ballarat in 2001 from the Coalition. She was briefly in the ministry in 2013, at the tail end of the former Labor government.

Transport wouldn’t have been King’s first choice of portfolio. She was shadow health minister (she had a background in health policy) for two terms under Bill Shorten, and looked forward to being health minister after the election Labor thought it would win in 2019. The unexpected loss meant major changes in the frontbench under Albanese, which saw King moved to infrastructure, transport and regional development.

King will survive this imbroglio, but the affair is salutary for the Albanese government.

Much of the trouble over the Qatar decision comes from public anger about Qantas and its poor service and arrogant attitude. The rejection of the Qatar flights, which benefited Qantas, became a lightning rod. The government failed to pick up on the strength of feeling about Qantas – if it had, Albanese might not have appeared with Joyce at the airline’s recent event to back the Voice, including with travel assistance for “yes” campaigners.

The Qatar matter shows the government can’t just expect to fob off questions by invoking generalities such as the “national interest”. It also reaffirms the point that while parliament’s question time is mostly useless, it can on occasion expose the weaknesses of a minister under pressure.

Finally, there is a lesson here about the role of cabinet. King might argue such decisions are “routine” and say she consulted (unspecified) colleagues, but the matter would have been better taken to cabinet. A cabinet discussion can tease out competing arguments for and against a decision, and reinforce a government’s case. In her defence in parliament, King tried to make a virtue of ministerial autonomy, but it doesn’t always serve a government.

Thanks to its own bungling, the government on Tuesday facilitated the Senate setting up an inquiry this week that will do a deep dive into its mishandling of the Qatar affair.

Nationals senate leader Bridget McKenzie proposed the inquiry. The government got the Greens onside to vote against it, by accommodating their push for another inquiry – into the Middle Arm export facility in the Northern Territory.

But it neglected to attempt to peel off other crossbenchers until the very last moment. McKenzie had already done the rounds. On Thursday, the government did manage to tweak the terms of reference to look back into some of the Coalition’s years.

Courtesy of the inquiry, a good deal more is expected to emerge about this imbroglio.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Grattan on Friday: Transport Minister Catherine King struggles to find a landing strip amid Qatar turbulence – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-transport-minister-catherine-king-struggles-to-find-a-landing-strip-amid-qatar-turbulence-213076